AXT Inc (AXTI) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's fourth-quarter 2025 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer; and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Audra, and I will be your coordinator today.

各位下午好，歡迎參加AXT 2025年第四季財務電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是執行長 Morris Young 博士和財務長 Gary Fischer。此外，業務發展副總裁蒂姆·貝特爾斯也將參加電話會議的問答環節。我叫奧德拉，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。

I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給 AXT 的投資者關係負責人 Leslie Green。請繼續。

Thank you, Audra, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei in China, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies or to utilize our manufacturing capacity.

謝謝你，奧德拉，大家午安。在會議開始之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議期間，包括對各位提問的回答中，我們將提供預測或做出其他前瞻性聲明，涉及公司未來的財務業績、市場狀況和趨勢、使用我們基板上製造的芯片或器件的新興應用、我們的產品組合、全球經濟和政治狀況（包括貿易關稅和進出口限制）、獲得中國出口許可證的能力、獲得出口許可證的時間、我們計劃將子公司通美在中國上市、我們能否在接下來的幾個季度增加訂單以控製成本和費用、提高生產良率和效率或利用我們的生產能力。

We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies increased environmental regulations in China.

我們謹此提醒您，此類聲明涉及未來事件，基於管理層當前的預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果或事件與預期有重大差異。除了上述事項外，這些不確定性和風險還包括但不限於我們部分控股的供應鏈公司的財務業績以及中國日益嚴格的環境法規。

In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website through February 19, 2027.

除了剛才提到的或本次電話會議中可能討論的因素外，我們建議您參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。這些資訊可透過我們網站上的連結在線獲取，其中包含有關風險因素的更多信息，這些風險因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期存在重大差異。本次電話會議的錄影將在我們的網站上保留至 2027 年 2 月 19 日。

Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. This information is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website.

另外，我想指出，今天收盤後不久，我們發布了一份新聞稿，公佈了 2025 年第四季的財務表現。這些資訊可在我們網站的投資者關係部分查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our fourth quarter results. Gary?

現在我將把電話交給加里·費雪，讓他回顧我們第四季的業績。加里？

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $23.0 million compared with $28.0 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $25.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，萊斯利，大家下午好。2025 年第四季的營收為 2,300 萬美元，而 2025 年第三季為 2,800 萬美元，2024 年第四季為 2,510 萬美元。

To break down our Q4 '25 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide was $8.0 million, primarily from data center applications, gallium arsenide was $7.0 million, germanium substrates were $231,000. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q4 was $7.6 million.

為了按產品類別細分我們 2025 年第四季的收入，磷化銦的收入為 800 萬美元，主要來自資料中心應用；砷化鎵的收入為 700 萬美元；鍺基板的收入為 23.1 萬美元。最後，我們第四季來自原料合資公司的營收為 760 萬美元。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue from Asia Pacific was 81.5%, and Europe was 17.5% and North America was 1%. The top five customers generated approximately 22.6% of total revenue and no customers were over the 10% level.

2025 年第四季，亞太地區的營收佔 81.5%，歐洲佔 17.5%，北美佔 1%。前五名客戶貢獻了約 22.6% 的總收入，沒有一個客戶的貢獻超過 10%。

Non-GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter was 21.5%. For comparison, we reported 22.6% gross margin in Q3 of '25 and 18.0% gross margin in Q4 of last year. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the fourth quarter was 20% -- 20.9% compared with 22.3% in Q3 of 2025 and 17.6% in Q4 of 2024. We continue to be highly focused on driving continued improvement, including further recovery in Q1.

第四季非GAAP毛利率為21.5%。作為對比，我們報告稱，2025 年第三季毛利率為 22.6%，去年第四季毛利率為 18.0%。對於喜歡以 GAAP 準則追蹤業績的人來說，第四季的毛利率為 20%——20.9%，而 2025 年第三季為 22.3%，2024 年第四季為 17.6%。我們將繼續高度專注於推動持續改進，包括在第一季實現進一步復甦。

Moving to operating expenses. Our total non-GAAP operating expense in Q4 was $7.8 million, compared with $6.5 million in Q3 of 2025. As a reminder, Q3 included some favorable adjustments in R&D that brought our OpEx down to a lower-than-normal level. Non-GAAP OpEx in Q4 of '24 was $9.8 million.

接下來是營運費用。我們第四季的非GAAP營運總支出為780萬美元，而2025年第三季為650萬美元。需要提醒的是，第三季研發方面進行了一些有利的調整，使我們的營運支出降至低於正常水平。2024 年第四季非 GAAP 營運支出為 980 萬美元。

On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q4 '25 was $8.8 million compared to $7.3 million in Q3 and $10.6 million in Q4 of 2024. Our non-GAAP operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2025 was $2.6 million compared with the non-GAAP operating loss in Q3 of 2025 of $384,000 and a non-GAAP operating loss of $5.4 million in Q4 of 2024. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a loss of $3.8 million compared with an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3 of 2025 and an operating loss of $6.2 million in Q4 of 2024.

以美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算，2025 年第四季的總營運費用為 880 萬美元，而第三季為 730 萬美元，2024 年第四季為 1,060 萬美元。2025 年第四季，我們的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 260 萬美元，而 2025 年第三季的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 38.4 萬美元，2024 年第四季的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 540 萬美元。作為參考，我們 2025 年第四季的 GAAP 營業虧損為 380 萬美元，而 2025 年第三季的營業虧損為 110 萬美元，2024 年第四季的營業虧損為 620 萬美元。

Nonoperating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a net gain of $285,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today.

2025 年第四季非經營性其他收入和支出以及經營活動以外的其他項目淨收益為 285,000 美元。詳情請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿中的損益表。

For Q4 of 2025, we had a non-GAAP net loss of $2.6 million or $0.06 per share compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $1.2 million or $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Non-GAAP net loss in Q4 2024 was $4.2 million or $0.10 per share. On a GAAP basis, net loss in Q4 was $3.6 million or $0.08 per share. By comparison, net loss was $1.9 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2025. GAAP net loss in Q4 of 2024 was $5.1 million or $0.12 per share. Weighted basic shares outstanding for the quarter was $44.7 million.

2025 年第四季，我們的非 GAAP 淨虧損為 260 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.06 美元，而 2025 年第三季的非 GAAP 淨虧損為 120 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.02 美元。2024 年第四季非 GAAP 淨虧損為 420 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.10 美元。以美國通用會計準則計算，第四季淨虧損為 360 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.08 美元。相比之下，2025 年第三季淨虧損為 190 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.04 美元。2024 年第四季 GAAP 淨虧損為 510 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.12 美元。本季加權平均流通股數為 4,470 萬股。

Cash, cash equivalents and investments increased by $97.2 million to $128.4 million as of December 31. This is primarily the result of our public offering of common stock, which closed on December 30 and generated approximately $93.9 million. By comparison, at September 30, cash was $31.2 million, accounts receivable decreased in the quarter by $2.6 million.

截至 12 月 31 日，現金、現金等價物和投資增加 9,720 萬美元，達到 1.284 億美元。這主要是由於我們在 12 月 30 日完成的普通股公開發行，籌集了約 9,390 萬美元。相比之下，截至 9 月 30 日，現金為 3,120 萬美元，應收帳款在本季減少了 260 萬美元。

Depreciation and amortization in the fourth quarter was $2.3 million. Total stock comp was $1.3 million. Net inventory was up by approximately $4 million in the fourth quarter to $81.7 million. This continues to be a focus for us, and we expect to bring it down in coming quarters. This concludes our discussion or comments about the quarterly financials.

第四季折舊和攤提費用為 230 萬美元。股票補償總額為130萬美元。第四季淨庫存增加約 400 萬美元，達到 8,170 萬美元。這仍然是我們關注的重點，我們預計在接下來的幾個季度將其降低。以上就是我們對季度財務數據的討論或評論。

Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei in China on the STAR Market in Shanghai, we remain very interested in completing the IPO, particularly in light of the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out in China, which is fueling increased China-based demand for indium phosphide substrates. We've continued to keep our IPO application current, and Tongmei remains in process as part of much of a more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago.

關於我們將子公司通美在上海科創板上市的計劃，我們仍然非常希望完成IPO，特別是考慮到中國人工智慧基礎設施建設的快速發展，這推動了中國對磷化銦基板的需求不斷增長。我們一直在更新我們的IPO申請，通美目前仍在進行中，與幾年前相比，現在潛在上市的公司數量更少，也更具選擇性。

Though the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tongmei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate. We will keep you informed of any updates.

儘管當前的地緣政治環境瞬息萬變，但通美仍被視為一家中國公司，並在中國繼續被視為一個優秀的IPO候選企業。如有任何最新消息，我們會及時通知您。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?

接下來，我將把電話交給莫里斯·楊博士，請他回顧我們的業務和市場狀況。莫里斯？

Thank you, Gary. We were disappointed (technical difficulty)

謝謝你，加里。我們很失望（技術難題）

[And for the] interruption, this is the operator. We have lost our speakers. Give me one moment to reconnect.

[至於]中斷，這是操作員。我們的音箱丟了。請給我一點時間重新連接網路。

Okay. Let me start on the beginning again, just in case I missed part of it.

好的。讓我從頭再說一遍，以防我漏掉了什麼。

We were disappointed that we didn't receive as many export permits in Q4 as we had hoped. Based on the average processing time we had seen up to that point in October. The good news is now that we have received permits in Q1 and we are in a stronger position today than we were at the same time in the prior quarter.

第四季我們獲得的出口許可證數量沒有達到預期，這讓我們感到失望。根據我們截至10月份所觀察到的平均處理時間。好消息是，我們在第一季獲得了許可，我們現在的處境比上個季度同期要好得多。

Gary will take you through our full-quarter guidance in a few minutes. But we do expect to achieve sequential growth in revenue in Q1, driven primarily by growth in indium phosphide for data center build-out for AI.

幾分鐘後，Gary 將為大家詳細介紹我們本季的業績預期。但我們預計第一季營收將實現環比成長，這主要得益於用於人工智慧資料中心建設的磷化銦業務的成長。

We're also very pleased to note that we are seeing a work on expansion of our customer base for indium phosphide. We're beginning to support leading customers in the optical space that we have not -- we have limited exposure to prior to this time. This includes Tier 1 laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both in China and around the world. We're excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speed and greater sophistication for both scale-up and scale-out applications.

我們也非常高興地註意到，我們的磷化銦客戶群正在不斷擴大。我們開始為光學領域的領先客戶提供支持，而在此之前，我們與這些客戶的接觸非常有限。這包括中國和世界各地的頂級雷射製造商和光收發器模組製造商。隨著市場向速度更快、更複雜的光學元件發展，無論是在規模化應用還是橫向擴展應用方面，我們都很高興能夠展示我們低EPD晶圓的技術優勢。

In total, our backlog for indium phosphide wafers have reached a new high of over $60 million. As we mentioned last quarter, customers are planning for longer lead time by placing longer-term motors and giving us more visibility into their expected demand. As many of you know, the supply chain for optical transceiver is quite complex and highly globalized. We believe this geographical interdependence is providing both opportunity and incentives for the ecosystem to work together in new ways to solve global supply chain shortages.

目前，我們的磷化銦晶片積壓訂單總額已超過 6,000 萬美元，創歷史新高。正如我們上個季度所提到的，客戶正在透過訂購長期馬達來規劃更長的交貨週期，這讓我們對他們的預期需求有了更清晰的了解。正如許多人所知，光收發器的供應鏈非常複雜，而且高度全球化。我們認為，這種地理上的相互依存關係為生態系統提供了機會和動力，使其能夠以新的方式共同努力，解決全球供應鏈短缺問題。

Beyond pluggable receivers, we are seeing a very large developing market for co-packaged optics for both scale-up and scale-out applications. We're actively engaging in discussions with our customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could be -- represent yet other inflection point in our business developing in late 2027 and beyond.

除了可插拔接收器之外，我們還看到面向規模化和規模化應用的共封裝光學元件市場正在蓬勃發展。我們正在積極與客戶討論他們的技術和時間要求，並相信這可能是我們業務在 2027 年底及以後發展中的另一個轉折點。

From a geographic demand perspective, the massive AI infrastructure build-out and planned CapEx spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the United States is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonic-based optical transceivers. We believe that today, our materials are being used in multiple US hyperscale and we expect that end customers use will continue to broaden.

從地理需求角度來看，美國大規模人工智慧基礎設施建設以及雲端服務和人工智慧平台提供商的計畫資本支出是 EML 和基於矽光子的光收發器的主要驅動力。我們相信，目前我們的材料已被美國多家超大規模企業採用，我們預期終端客戶的使用範圍將持續擴大。

In China, the data center build-out is early in its ramp. But we are seeing rapid growth as China moves to accelerate its data center expansion and AI capabilities. Our revenue related to the data center market in China are expected to grow by more than 60% in Q1 over Q4, highlighting both increased investment in these Tier 1 data centers as well as the strong desire for Chinese domestic suppliers to secure local stores at every level of the AI infrastructure supply chain.

在中國，資料中心建設尚處於快速發展初期。但隨著中國加快資料中心擴張和人工智慧能力建設，我們看到了快速成長。我們預計，與中國資料中心市場相關的收入在第一季將比第四季度增長超過 60%，這不僅體現了對這些一級資料中心的投資增加，也體現了中國國內供應商在人工智慧基礎設施供應鏈的各個環節確保本地業務的強烈願望。

Given the strong demand environment, it is important to note that AXT is well positioned to handle increased demand for indium phosphide wafers. Since we have last reported to you in October, we have already added approximately 25% more capacity, and we are on track with our current plan to double our capacity from Q4 2025 level by the end of this year.

鑑於強勁的需求環境，值得注意的是，AXT 已做好充分準備，能夠應對對磷化銦晶片日益增長的需求。自從我們上次在 10 月向您匯報以來，我們已經增加了約 25% 的產能，並且我們正按計劃推進，力爭在今年年底前將產能從 2025 年第四季度的水平翻一番。

Beyond our current plan for capacity expansion, we're working closely with our customer base to understand their long-term requirements and to align our plans globally. Our recent capital raise will be fundamental to our future expansion as we enter our next significant phase of growth.

除了我們目前的產能擴張計劃之外，我們還與客戶群密切合作，了解他們的長期需求，並在全球範圍內調整我們的計劃。我們最近籌集的資金對於我們未來的擴張至關重要，因為我們將進入下一個重要的成長階段。

A major focus of this expansion will be an increased investment in our 6-inch indium phosphide product, and we are excited to work with our customers to meet the rigorous requirements of next-generation EML and silicon photonics-based devices.

此次擴張的一個重點是增加對 6 英寸磷化銦產品的投資，我們很高興與客戶合作，以滿足下一代 EML 和矽光子裝置的嚴格要求。

Now turning to gallium arsenide. We continue to see demand for semi-insulating wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have strong opportunity for market share expansion gated primarily by our ability to obtain export permits. In Q4, we saw an uptake in semiconducting wafers for both industrial laser applications and data center laser applications. VCSEL lasers, a data center for data center applications, typically do not require a lot of gallium oxide material. As the device are small, so they don't move the middle much as a growth driver for us.

現在來看砷化鎵。我們持續看到對無線射頻元件用半絕緣晶片的需求，並相信我們有強大的市場份額擴張機會，而這主要取決於我們獲得出口許可證的能力。第四季度，我們看到半導體晶圓在工業雷射應用和資料中心雷射應用的需求均有所成長。VCSEL雷射（一種用於資料中心應用的雷射）通常不需要大量的氧化鎵材料。由於這些設備體積小，因此它們不會對我們公司的發展起到推動作用。

However, we are seeing increased demand for VCSEL for autonomous vehicles in China -- Chinese automobile market, which is currently expanding rapidly. High-growth expenses, in addition to our watching -- we are watching with interest an emerging application in robotics for VCSELs that increase the physician and dexterity of a modern robotic hand.

然而，我們看到中國自動駕駛汽車對VCSEL的需求不斷增長——中國汽車市場目前正在快速擴張。除了高成長支出外，我們還在密切關注——我們饒有興趣地關注著VCSEL在機器人領域的新興應用，該應用可以提高現代機器人手的醫生操作能力和靈巧性。

Counter the VCSEL of use in data center applications, machine mission VCSELs tend to be very large and use more gallium oxide substrate. They also require high-quality material which we are very well positioned to supply. Again, demand is more today, primarily China-based and covers a diverse set of customers but the breadth of use case and the development is very exciting.

與資料中心應用中使用的 VCSEL 相比，機器任務 VCSEL 往往尺寸很大，並且使用更多的氧化鎵基板。他們還需要高品質的材料，而我們正好具備供應這種材料的優勢。如今，需求量更大，主要來自中國，客戶群也更加多元化，但其應用範圍和發展前景令人振奮。

Finally, our raw material business is -- was up in Q4 with growth from our subsidiary volume, which manufactures pBN crucibles used in manufacturing of indium phosphide crucibles. In addition, we're pleased to report that our subsidiary, Jinmei, has begun to refine high-quality indium, which gave us now direct control of a guaranteed supply of yet the other critical material for our indium phosphide substrates. Globally, there continues to be a greater awareness of the importance of various materials, and we are ahead of the curve in developing our unique integrated supply chain.

最後，我們的原料業務在第四季度有所成長，這得益於我們子公司的銷售成長，該子公司生產用於製造磷化銦坩堝的 pBN 坩堝。此外，我們很高興地宣布，我們的子公司金美已經開始提煉高品質銦，這使我們現在能夠直接控制另一個關鍵材料——磷化銦基板的可靠供應。在全球範圍內，人們對各種材料的重要性認識不斷提高，而我們在開發獨特的一體化供應鏈方面處於領先地位。

In closing, this is a very dynamic and exciting time for our company. As we enter into 2026, we're a fundamental supplier to the multiyear optical build-out in the AI infrastructure market. We have a broadening customer base of Tier 1 companies and a strong balance sheet to support our continued business expansion.

總之，對我們公司而言，這是一個充滿活力和令人興奮的時期。進入 2026 年，我們已成為人工智慧基礎設施市場多年光學建設的重要供應商。我們擁有不斷擴大的一級企業客戶群，以及穩健的資產負債表，以支持我們業務的持續擴張。

And with growing backlog, the receipt of indium phosphide and gallium arsenide export license remains the single most significant gating factor for our growth. As such, we are highly focused on ensuring that we are proactive, organized and disciplined about managing the process on behalf of our customers.

隨著積壓訂單的不斷增加，獲得磷化銦和砷化鎵出口許可證仍然是我們成長的最重要限制因素。因此，我們高度重視確保我們能夠積極主動、有條不紊、嚴謹自律地代表客戶管理流程。

We also know that we must be laser-focused on running our business with the greatest efficiency. This includes our continued effort to drive gross margin improvement, OpEx discipline and inventory reduction. With strong ongoing market trends fueling the data center upgrade cycle, we believe that we have tremendous opportunity in 2026 to drive meaningful growth in our business and return to profitability.

我們也知道，我們必須全神貫注，以最高的效率經營我們的業務。這包括我們持續努力提高毛利率、控制營運成本和減少庫存。強勁的市場趨勢推動著資料中心升級週期，我們相信，2026 年我們將迎來巨大的機遇，實現業務的實質成長並恢復獲利。

I would like to personally thank our employees for their dedication and tireless efforts during this singular moment in AXT history, and while we also like to express my sincere gratitude to our customers, partners and shareholders for their ongoing support and believe that in the future, we are building together. We look forward to reporting to you on our progress.

我謹代表公司全體員工，衷心感謝他們在AXT歷史上這一特殊時刻所展現出的奉獻精神和不懈努力。同時，我也要向我們的客戶、合作夥伴和股東們表達由衷的感謝，感謝他們一直以來的支持。我們相信，在未來，我們將攜手共創輝煌。我們期待向您報告我們的進展。

And with that, I will turn the call back to Gary for our fiscal quarter guidance.

接下來，我將把電話轉回給 Gary，請他為我們帶來本季的財務表現展望。

Thank you, Morris. To reiterate a couple of key points for Morris' commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our indium phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle. Given the geopolitical complexity surrounding this market trend, our customer base is diversifying and expanding and customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs.

謝謝你，莫里斯。重申 Morris 評論中的幾個關鍵點，我們看到與人工智慧和正在進行的資料中心升級週期相關的磷化銦晶圓需求大幅成長。鑑於這一市場趨勢所處的地緣政治複雜性，我們的客戶群正在多元化和擴大，客戶正在下達更長期的訂單，並更清晰地表達他們的需求。

With all of these positive market and AXT specific growth drivers, the most significant single factor to our growth in Q1 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits. Therefore, guiding for the future is somewhat tricky for us right now as we cannot predict future timing of permits or a success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order.

儘管有這麼多積極的市場因素和 AXT 特有的成長驅動因素，但對我們第一季及以後的成長而言，最重要的單一因素是能否成功獲得出口許可證以及獲得出口許可證的時機。因此，目前對我們來說，對未來進行指導有些棘手，因為我們無法預測許可證的未來發放時間，也無法預測任何客戶或個人訂單能否成功獲得許可證。

But drawing on what we know and what we've experienced thus far in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight to our expectations for Q1. As of today, we have approximately $26 million in revenue that can be realized in Q1 across our substrate product lines and raw materials, for which we either have already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q1.

但根據我們目前在出口許可流程中所了解和經歷的情況，我們可以對第一季的預期提出以下見解。截至目前，我們在第一季可以透過基材產品線和原材料實現約 2,600 萬美元的收入，這些產品要麼我們已經獲得了出貨許可證，要麼不需要出口許可證。我們非常有信心在第一季確認這筆收入。

We could see significant upside to this number in Q1, should we receive more permits for additional orders between now and the end of the quarter. But we want to stress that as we experienced in Q4, the timing for permit issuance is not predictable nor in our control and doesn't necessarily align with our quarterly reporting.

如果從現在到本季末我們能獲得更多額外訂單的許可，那麼第一季這個數字可能會大幅上升。但我們想強調的是，正如我們在第四季度所經歷的那樣，許可證發放的時間既無法預測，也不在我們的控制範圍內，而且不一定與我們的季度報告相符。

As Morris mentioned, we continue to focus strongly on gross margin. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to absorption of fixed costs, revenue mix by product and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency.

正如莫里斯所提到的，我們將繼續高度重視毛利率。進一步改善取決於多種因素，包括與固定成本吸收相關的總收入、按產品劃分的收入組成以及我們持續提高生產效率的能力。

With regards to OpEx, we expect that it will remain at approximately $9.0 million in Q1. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.02 to $0.04 and GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.04 to $0.06. This represents substantial year-over-year progress towards our return to profitability. We estimate share count in Q1 will be approximately 53.2 million shares.

關於營運支出，我們預計第一季將維持在約 900 萬美元。考慮到這些因素，我們預期非GAAP淨虧損將在0.02美元至0.04美元之間，GAAP淨虧損將在0.04美元至0.06美元之間。這代表著我們在恢復獲利方面取得了顯著的年比進展。我們預計第一季的股票數量約為5320萬股。

Okay. this concludes our prepared comments. We'd be glad to answer your questions now. Audra? Operator?

好的，我們準備好的發言就到此結束了。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。奧德拉？操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Richard Shannon, Craig-Hallum.

（操作說明）理查德·香農，克雷格-哈勒姆。

Gary, I'm going to do a quick request to give me the revenue number you gave for the quarter. It got my line got garbled here. I heard about '26 that you believe you can get highly likely to get. Was there a number to the upside there? Apologies for needed to ask this.

Gary，我有個請求，請你把之前給的季度營收資料給我。我的線路好像斷線了。我聽說你認為你很有可能會得到 '26。那裡是否有上漲空間？很抱歉需要問這個問題。

We normally give you guys a range, but we discussed before the call today that we're very, very confident at the '26 number. We did say just a moment ago that we believe we could go higher if we get more permits, but we -- it wouldn't even -- it could even be more than just a normal range, which we usually have a $2 million or $3 million range for you guys.

我們通常會給你們一個範圍，但在今天的電話會議之前，我們討論過，我們對 26 這個數字非常有信心。我們剛才說過，如果我們獲得更多許可，我們相信價格可以更高，但——甚至——甚至可能超過正常的範圍，我們通常給你們的價格範圍是 200 萬或 300 萬美元。

Well, let me try to add on to this point. That is -- our manufacturing are doing the manufacturing as if we can get a permit. So there is a lot of these so-called semi-finished goods, or finish good staging in our clean room ready to be shipped if we can get an actual permit.

好，讓我再補充一點。也就是說——我們的生產部門正在按照能夠獲得許可證的方式進行生產。因此，我們的無塵室裡有很多所謂的半成品或成品展示區，如果我們能拿到正式的許可證，就可以出貨了。

Yeah. We are building to forecast and to the backlog, whether or not -- we're not building to permits. We're not waiting until we get a permit and then say, okay, let's get going. And so it's building and we're enthusiastic, we're excited and of course, yeah, we're a little bit frustrated because it would be pretty big numbers that we can get some more of these permits. And we think that we will.

是的。我們是根據預測和積壓訂單進行建設的，不管是否獲得許可——我們不是按照許可證進行建設的。我們不會等到拿到許可證才說，好了，我們開始吧。所以，事情正在朝著好的方向發展，我們充滿熱情，非常興奮，當然，是的，我們也有些沮喪，因為如果我們能獲得更多這樣的許可證，數量將會非常龐大。我們認為我們會做到。

We can comment more on this call, but we're hanging in there. We're not discouraging giving up.

我們也可以就此次通話做更多評論，但我們會繼續堅持下去。我們並不是不鼓勵放棄。

Okay. I appreciate understanding your approach to the guidance and it certainly makes a lot of sense in this environment. Let me ask about the licensing process here. Last quarter, you said it was about a business day or a three-month process here. And obviously, that didn't turn out as we saw from your pre-announcement, which is unfortunate, but we all know how governments can work from time to time here.

好的。我理解您對指導意見的處理方式，在當前環境下，您的方式確實很有道理。我想問一下這裡的許可證辦理流程。上個季度，您說這大概需要一個工作日或三個月的時間。顯然，事情的發展並沒有像你之前宣布的那樣，這很遺憾，但我們都知道政府有時會如何運作。

Have any new insights as to how they're working here? And I guess, are there any permits that are being rejected that you don't think should be? Just more insights here on this licensing process.

您對他們在這裡的工作方式有什麼新的見解嗎？我想問的是，有沒有一些被拒絕的許可證申請，你認為不應該被拒絕？這裡提供更多關於許可流程的資訊。

Yeah, I can answer that one. So this process is not transparent at all. And we're seeing quite a lot of variability. We started off in the end of Q3 by saying it was looking like we're seeing a fairly consistent 60-business-day process cycle. We're now seeing a lot more variability as we go through there. And as I say, there's just no transparency to that.

是的，我可以回答這個問題。所以這個過程完全不透明。我們看到的情況差異很大。我們在第三季末就說過，看起來我們正看到一個相當穩定的 60 個工作天的流程週期。我們現在看到，隨著我們深入探索，情況會變得更加複雜多變。正如我所說，這方面完全缺乏透明度。

It's reasonable to assume that there's geopolitics playing into this as well. It's really hard to determine what and why. And it's difficult, therefore, to figure out which permits are coming in on time, which are taking longer.

可以合理推斷，地緣政治因素也在其中發揮作用。很難確定是什麼以及為什麼。因此，很難確定哪些許可證按時發放，哪些許可證發放時間較長。

I'll answer the second question as well, which you asked whether there had been any permits that have been denied and why? We have actually received a couple of denials with the instructions that we can resubmit that application with more information. So this is the first time we've actually received denials on permits and we're not totally sure why. Again, no transparency to this.

我也會回答你的第二個問題，即是否有任何許可證被拒絕以及原因？實際上，我們已經收到幾份拒簽信，信中指示我們可以提供更多資訊後重新提交申請。這是我們第一次收到許可證被拒的通知，我們也不完全確定原因。同樣，這件事缺乏透明度。

We don't see any particular reason why any of these permits should not be approved. And it's a process that we're just working through. So these permits that have been denied, we've already resubmitted with MOFCOM and we're hopeful that we continue to talk to MOFCOM and they will get reviewed quickly and could potentially turn around fairly quickly. I could even make an impact on Q1 numbers if we can get a quick turnaround on them.

我們認為沒有任何理由不批准這些許可證。這是一個我們正在逐步完成的過程。對於這些被拒絕的許可證，我們已經重新向商務部提交了申請，我們希望繼續與商務部溝通，他們能夠盡快審查並有可能很快批准。如果能盡快完成，我甚至可以對第一季的業績產生影響。

And what does MOFCOM stand for?

MOFCOM是什麼的縮寫？

That's the Ministry of Commerce in China.

那是中國商務部。

Yeah. So let me add what optic viewpoint, the comment about the team just give you. That is although there is a denial of an application, but they come with a specific instruction how to strengthen the application, which we think is a good indication. In other words ,if they really want to deny this is one of -- they can just let it sit there.

是的。所以，讓我補充一下，從這個角度來看，剛才的評論對這支球隊有什麼影響。也就是說，雖然申請被拒絕了，但他們會提供具體的指導，說明如何加強申請，我們認為這是一個很好的跡象。換句話說，如果他們真的想否認這是其中之一——他們可以就讓它留在那裡。

I mean the fact that they want more information about -- actually, I think it's a fixable permit application we have. And that means, hey, they are taking a very serious look at it. And hopefully, that will turn to be approved.

我的意思是，他們想要了解更多資訊——實際上，我認為我們手頭上的許可證申請是可以修改的。這意味著，他們正在非常認真地研究這個問題。希望這項提議能夠獲得批准。

Okay. That is helpful. Second question here is kind of the backlog here and also following up on more of your comments about customers booking further out. So we went from a backlog of [49 to above 60] here, and you also commented that people or customers are ordering further out.

好的。那很有幫助。第二個問題是關於積壓的問題，同時也是您先前關於客戶提前預訂的評論的後續跟進。所以，我們這裡的積壓訂單從 49 個增加到了 60 個以上，而且您也提到，人們或顧客的訂單日期也提前了。

Could you suggest how far out they're going right now? And also, how far out are you hearing forecasts from these customers as well?

您能告訴我他們目前的預測範圍有多遠嗎？另外，您從這些客戶那裡了解到的預測期限是多久？

Yeah. Let me see how to answer that. Actually, let me first answer my part of the question, and I will turn it over to Tim. Well -- and the reason why that Tim really works with customers hearing what their demand is actually well, the interesting comment we have was that we have important meetings with our customers this week, and they're telling us -- Tim at least in two occasions, people are saying, gee, our demand forecast increases every week. So that's the kind of level.

是的。讓我想想怎麼回答這個問題。實際上，讓我先回答我這部分的問題，然後再把問題交給提姆。嗯——蒂姆之所以如此努力地與客戶溝通，傾聽他們的需求，是因為我們本週與客戶舉行了重要的會議，他們告訴我們——蒂姆，至少有兩次，有人說，哎呀，我們的需求預測每週都在增加。這就是水平級別。

I think -- I mean we know it is tight and we know it's going up. But I think people are upsizing their demand, and they're telling us what they want to do, whether they're going to go to [forage] how much they want to switch on three to four and four to six, okay?

我認為——我的意思是，我們知道它很緊，我們也知道它正在上漲。但我認為人們正在提高他們的需求，他們正在告訴我們他們想做什麼，無論他們是去[覓食]，還是想把時間從三點切換到四點，從四點切換到六點，好嗎？

And as far as how much inventory they are building, I think that depends upon customers. Some of the customers, we suspect they're buying into the inventory. But they also tell us I'm going to take it all if you can [deliver]. Whereas others, I think they are telling us the real demand in the quarter because I think as of now, we cannot deliver enough of their demand. So they are giving us longer lead time to give us more incentive to build up the expansion plan and build the capacity for them.

至於他們儲備了多少庫存，我認為這取決於客戶的需求。我們懷疑有些顧客是在囤積庫存。但他們也告訴我們，如果可以的話，我會全部拿走。[遞送]。而其他人，我認為他們告訴我們的是本季的真實需求，因為我認為就目前而言，我們無法滿足他們足夠的需求。所以他們給了我們更長的準備時間，以便激勵我們制定擴張計劃並為他們建立產能。

And also, I think the other thing is, Tim, you want to comment on long-term commitment that you're talking to a customer about?

另外，提姆，我想問的是，你想對你正在和客戶談論的長期承諾發表一些看法嗎？

Yeah, I definitely -- I'll comment a little bit on that, and I'll also comment a little bit more on backlog and what we're seeing from this. So a lot of this backlog, remember, is scaled up based on the permit dynamics, right? So the permit dynamics, once we receive a permit to export material we have a six-month window to export. So a lot of backlog is built at the moment that permit comes in, we have a six-month window maximum to deliver. And in many cases, that window -- the window of which the customers are looking to receive material is a lot shorter than six months. So really and truthfully, this is all being gated by permits, as we mentioned during the discussion.

是的，我肯定會就此發表一些看法，我也會就積壓的工作以及我們從中看到的情況再多發表一些看法。所以，請記住，很多積壓的工作都是根據許可證的動態變化而增加的，對吧？因此，在許可證發放方面，一旦我們獲得出口材料的許可證，我們就有六個月的出口窗口期。因此，許多積壓訂單都是在許可證發放的那一刻產生的，我們最多只有六個月的時間來交付。而且在許多情況下，客戶希望收到貨物的窗口期遠小於六個月。所以說，說實話，這一切都受到許可證的限制，正如我們在討論中提到的那樣。

In terms of what we're seeing in build-out for inventory, I think at this moment in time, people would like to keep more inventory. But as Morris mentioned, just about everybody we're talking to is telling us that the demand is growing literally on a weekly basis. So we just see the numbers expanding and expanding over and over.

就我們目前看到的庫存建設而言，我認為在現階段，人們都希望保持更多的庫存。但正如莫里斯提到的那樣，我們交談過的幾乎每個人都告訴我們，需求確實每週都在增長。所以我們只能眼睜睜地看著數字不斷增加。

Now turning to forecast and what kind of visibility we have. We are definitely talking about long-term supply agreements with a number of customers right now. And we're planning our business according to those long-term supply agreements.

現在來談談預測以及我們目前掌握的資訊量。我們目前確實正在與一些客戶洽談長期供貨協議。我們正根據這些長期供應協議來規劃我們的業務。

We're seeing forecast out beyond 2030 for many of these customers, but of course, as I've just said, those numbers are increasing on a week-by-week basis. So it's difficult to keep track of things, but people are talking about minimum demand requirements. Moving forward for at least the next two to three years, given its forecast out beyond 2030.

我們看到許多客戶的預測都延續到了 2030 年以後，但當然，正如我剛才所說，這些數字每週都在增加。所以很難掌握所有情況，但人們都在談論最低需求要求。鑑於其對 2030 年以後的預測，未來至少兩到三年內都將如此。

So all in all, I think this backlog is real. It's achievable, and it's kind of being limited by our permits at the moment.

總而言之，我認為這個積壓問題確實存在。這是可以實現的，只是目前受到許可證的限制。

Okay. Makes sense. I'll ask one more question and jump out of line here, guys. This is on capacity additions. Just a few kind of multipart question here. I think I heard you say you're going to double your capacity from the end of '25 to the end of '26. If you could verify that? And if so, can you help us understand what level of CapEx is going to be requiring?

好的。有道理。各位，我再問一個問題，可能有點冒昧了。這是關於產能增加的問題。這裡只有幾種多部分問題。我好像聽你說過，你們打算從 2025 年底到 2026 年底將產能翻倍。能幫忙確認一下嗎？如果是這樣，您能否幫助我們了解需要多少資本支出？

And then looking beyond that, and Tim, you just mentioned forecast going out beyond 2030, which is interesting to hear, how much more capacity beyond that could you need? Let our minds wonder about what kind of scale an opportunity you're thinking about here?

再往後看，提姆，你剛才提到了 2030 年以後的預測，這很有意思，那麼在那之後你還需要多少產能呢？讓我們來思考一下，您在這裡所考慮的機會規模有多大？

Yeah. I think we just said we have increased our capacity by 25% now, and we do expect to double our capacity by the end of this year, okay? And how much budget would we need? It could be about $30 million, and that is sort of on the low end in a way because the first phase of the expansion, which is doubling our capacity, mainly use brownfield. In other words, existing Tongmei facility, we already have a clean room available. We have the building there already and power supply and water. So I think that budget is lower.

是的。我想我們剛才說過，我們的產能已經提高了 25%，我們預計到今年年底產能將翻一番，好嗎？我們需要多少預算？可能要花費 3000 萬美元左右，這在某種程度上還是保守估計，因為擴建的第一階段（產能翻倍）主要利用的是棕地。換句話說，在現有的桐美工廠裡，我們已經有一間無塵室可以使用了。我們已經有了那裡的建築物，也有了電力和水源。所以我認為預算會更低。

Looking beyond 2026, we are looking at possibly doubling it again in 2027. And that budget is lining somewhere around $100 million to $150 million depends upon how we want to build it because then we are talking about a greenfield. We need building, we need clean we need power, et cetera.

展望2026年以後，我們預計2027年可能會再次翻倍。預算大概在 1 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間，這取決於我們想如何建設，因為那意味著要從零開始建設。我們需要建築，我們需要清潔能源，我們需要電力等等。

Tim Savageaux, Northland Securities.

Tim Savageaux，北地證券。

Let's continue with that capacity discussion, but maybe try to put some numbers around it. If I look at where you've peaked historically, and I think we're talking exclusively about indium phosphide here, that's getting up towards $20 million a quarter in substrate revenue. And I imagine your capacity is now slightly above that, given the increase you talked about in Q4.

我們繼續討論產能問題，但或許可以試著用一些數字來具體說明。如果我回顧一下你們歷史上達到的巔峰時期，而且我認為我們這裡只討論磷化銦，那麼襯底收入每季接近 2000 萬美元。考慮到您在第四季度提到的成長，我估計您現在的產能應該略高於這個水準。

I guess question one, is that reasonable? And should we expect you to exit calendar '26 with revenue capacity roughly double those levels? And would you anticipate having a demand of -- to fulfill that at that time where you're building maybe a little bit ahead?

我想問第一個問題，這合理嗎？我們是否可以預期貴公司在 2026 年底的營收能力將比現在的水準翻倍？您是否預計屆時會有這樣的需求—為了滿足這種需求，您可能需要提前一些時間進行建造？

Let me first answer the question. The -- I think we calculated -- I think it's approximately $35 million a quarter by the end of the year, run rate, okay? It could be a little bit more given the price environment is dynamic as we -- the cost of indium are going up.

讓我先回答這個問題。——我想我們計算過——我想到年底，按季度計算，大約是 3500 萬美元，這是正常水平，好嗎？考慮到價格環境瞬息萬變，銦的成本正在上漲，所以價格可能會更高一些。

And can we use up all this capacity? I think looking at the backlog, we can certainly do, but the problem is the gating factor is the permit.

我們能充分利用這些產能嗎？我認為從積壓的工作量來看，我們當然可以做到，但問題在於審批的門檻。

I'll add something in here as well. Irrespective of permits, we mentioned we are seeing growth in this business in China as well. And look at it quarter to quarter, Q4 was probably double revenue in China than Q1 in 2025. And we would expect -- we're looking at potentially doubling again through 2026. So we're definitely seeing growth there in China that warrants expansion as well as growth outside of China where we would need permits for.

我也會在這裡補充一些內容。撇開許可證問題不談，我們之前提到過，我們在中國也看到了這項業務的成長。從季度來看，到 2025 年，第四季中國市場的收入可能是第一季的兩倍。我們預計到 2026 年，這一數字可能會再次翻倍。因此，我們確實看到中國市場出現了成長，這值得我們進行擴張；同時，我們也看到中國以外地區的成長，但在中國以外地區，我們需要獲得相關許可。

I agree with you, but then I don't want to minimize the importance of outside of China. But I think the AI growth, the budget we're seeing is really fueling the demand for indium phosphide substrates.

我同意你的觀點，但我也不想低估中國以外地區的重要性。但我認為人工智慧的發展以及我們看到的預算成長，確實推動了對磷化銦基板的需求。

Yeah, Tim, this is Gary. And I still speak conservative, but -- and I am. But I'm not sure you guys are getting the point is that every customer is worried about getting enough for their needs. There's a general concern. The meetings we've had this week, we're not meeting with the purchasing manager. We're meeting with CEOs and general managers. They all want to talk to Morris about capacity and about future growth.

是的，提姆，我是加里。我仍然說著保守的話，但是──而且我的確是保守派。但我不太確定你們是否明白我的意思，那就是每個顧客都擔心自己能否買到足夠滿足需求的產品。人們普遍感到擔憂。本週我們開的幾次會，都沒有跟採購經理會面。我們正在與執行長和總經理們會面。他們都想和莫里斯談談產能和未來發展的問題。

So there's a phenomenon going on here that all of us -- it's unusual for -- no matter what we do for our jobs, including the analysts, this is very unique and unusual situation. I mean I've been around the block a few times and Morris has, and this is very, very unusual. And it's actually intense. We're excited but we're scrambling. We're scrambling.

所以這裡出現了一種現象，對我們所有人來說都很不尋常——無論我們從事什麼工作，包括分析師在內，這都是一種非常獨特和不尋常的情況。我的意思是，我和莫里斯都經歷過不少事，這種情況非常非常不尋常。而且確實很激烈。我們既興奮又手忙腳亂。我們正在緊急應對。

And I don't see any into it near term. This is -- people are telling us that their demand is going to be going up 3, 4 or 5x over the next four or five years. And there's not how many suppliers are there. You know the answers to that, too, and we're one of them.

而且我看短期內不會有任何進展。也就是說，人們告訴我們，未來四、五年內，他們的需求將成長 3 倍、4 倍甚至 5 倍。而且，供應商的數量也不重要。你也知道答案，而我們就是其中之一。

Yeah. I think let me add to that. I think the investor usually asked the CEO, the toughest question is what keeps you up at night? I think what's keeping up at night is calculating how we're going to expand that capacity, how we're going to get that product to our customers and how to develop the technology that a customer wants.

是的。我想補充一點。我認為投資人通常會問CEO一個最棘手的問題是：什麼事情讓你夜不能寐？我認為讓我夜不能寐的是計算如何擴大產能，如何將產品送到客戶手中，以及如何開發客戶想要的技術。

I mean it's very exciting, but it's also very straining. We need to be very much aware of what the customer wants and satisfy the demand.

我的意思是，這非常令人興奮，但同時也非常累人。我們需要非常清楚客戶想要什麼，並滿足他們的需求。

Fortunately, we have recent experience at adding capacity. What was almost about 10 years ago, when we learned that we needed to get gallium arsenide moved out of Beijing. And so we had 2017, '18 kind of time period where we did add capacity from green grass fields. So we have some strength here but it's going to tax us even though we are experienced.

幸運的是，我們最近在擴容方面累積了經驗。大約十年前，我們得知需要將砷化鎵從北京運走。因此，在 2017 年、2018 年那段時間裡，我們確實增加了綠草球場的容量。所以我們在這點上有一定的優勢，但即便我們經驗豐富，這也會帶給我們不小的挑戰。

Yeah. I do want to give the analyst point to ask the question, but I think we're talking to each other.

是的。我確實想讓分析師有機會提出這個問題，但我認為我們現在正在互相交流。

We're excited, yeah.

是的，我們很興奮。

But I think it is a very good point. I think we -- prior to this, we probably overspend because the IPO preparation, we actually expand from one facility to three facilities. But now I think we're looking at a great demand for indium phosphide which I think it's really meeting our challenge. And I think Gary is right. We are very well positioned to meet that demand.

但我認為這是一個很好的觀點。我認為我們——在此之前，我們可能過度支出了，因為在IPO準備階段，我們實際上從一個工廠擴展到了三個工廠。但現在我認為市場對磷化銦的需求非常大，我認為這確實能夠應對我們面臨的挑戰。我認為加里是對的。我們完全有能力滿足這項需求。

I think we are probably the best suited to increase capacity. And also because the virtual integration we have in terms of supply chain, and we're in control of a lot of other material, which cooking to supply if indium phosphide continue to grow like what we are talking about, and we have plans for that as well.

我認為我們可能是最適合擴大產能的一方。此外，由於我們在供應鏈方面實現了虛擬整合，並且我們控制著許多其他材料，如果磷化銦繼續像我們所說的那樣增長，我們將能夠供應這些材料，我們也有相應的計劃。

A good example is our subsidiary, Jinmei. Jinmei make the indium phosphide, poly, for Tongmei. So we have -- our supply chain is supporting this growth process.

我們的子公司金美就是一個很好的例子。金美為通美生產磷化銦聚合物。所以，我們的供應鏈正在支持這個成長過程。

Next question, Tim?

提姆，下一個問題？

I'm a little bit afraid now. But you actually you highlighted in the release even the increased presence with some big Tier 1 customers. I guess in the commentary, you mentioned maybe some in China, but elsewhere. In terms of what's going on there, are we talking about orders with major new customers qualification? Any specific programs?

我現在有點害怕。但實際上，您在新聞稿中也重點強調了與一些一級大客戶的合作日益密切。我想你在評論中提到了中國的一些情況，但其他地方也有。就目前的情況來看，我們指的是那些需要獲得重要新客戶資格的訂單嗎？有什麼具體的項目嗎？

And I'm not sure these two comments were related or not. But I'll ask if they were with regard to your increased investment in 6-inch indium phosphide, if you can maybe cover both of those points. Appreciate it.

我不確定這兩則評論是否有關聯。但我會問，他們是否與您增加對 6 英寸磷化銦的投資有關，如果您能就這兩點進行說明，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yeah. I'll take a stab at that one, Tim. So yes, we are gaining more traction with customers, as we've said on previous calls as well that we've not been so prolific in. So we are gaining design in, we're gaining qualifications on existing products as well as new products as we move forward. And the customers are looking to expand on their demand for indium phosphide.

是的。提姆，我來試著回答這個問題。是的，我們正在贏得更多客戶的青睞，正如我們在先前的電話會議中所說，我們在這方面做得還不夠出色。因此，隨著我們不斷前進，我們在現有產品和新產品的設計、資格方面都在不斷進步。客戶希望擴大對磷化銦的需求。

As Morris mentioned in the call, there's already been a big move from 3-inch to 4-inch, so we've spent a lot of time and effort on scaling up our 4-inch business. And we're also seeing a lot of interest now. And of course, we all know one customer that's really driving 6-inch demand. So we're really taking 6-inch very, very seriously.

正如 Morris 在電話會議中提到的，3 英寸到 4 英寸的轉變已經很大，所以我們投入了大量的時間和精力來擴大我們的 4 英寸業務。現在我們也看到很多人對此感興趣。當然，我們都知道有一位客戶真正推動了 6 吋螢幕的需求。所以我們非常非常重視6吋這個尺寸。

And we're expanding -- as we expand capacity both now and are doubling capacity through '26 and beyond, we're looking at adding significant 6-inch capacity in there during that expansion. And we're just plowing through the numbers right now to see what we need to drive 6-inch and how we scale 6-inch compared to 3, 4 and more of the traditional wafer sizes.

我們正在擴張——隨著我們目前產能的擴大，以及到 2026 年及以後產能翻番，我們正在考慮在擴張過程中增加大量的 6 英寸產能。我們現在正在深入研究數據，看看我們需要什麼才能推動 6 吋晶圓的發展，以及與 3 吋、4 吋及更大尺寸的傳統晶圓相比，我們如何擴展 6 吋晶圓的尺寸。

Yeah. I think one part of it perhaps is the cooperative effort. Usually, when your customers don't go to me, they probably talk to the sales guy and give us orders. But I think now the dynamics is such that we sort of need to interact more to make sure that we're putting the right amount of attention both in terms of development and capacity expansion to where they need it, okay. And then virtually also to convince us, this is the right investment we should have. Is that right?

是的。我認為其中一個原因可能是合作努力。通常情況下，如果顧客不直接來找我，他們可能會和銷售人員溝通並下訂單。但我認為現在的情況是，我們需要更多地互動，以確保我們在發展和能力擴張方面給予他們需要的足夠的關注，好嗎？然後，他們也透過各種方式說服我們，這才是我們該做的正確投資。是這樣嗎？

That's correct. We're also getting a lot more customer buy-in with commitments, NRE purchase orders to drive that business forward as well.

沒錯。我們也獲得了更多客戶的認可，他們做出了承諾，並下了非經常性工程採購訂單，以推動業務發展。

Matt Bryson, Wedbush Securities.

馬特‧布萊森，韋德布希證券公司。

Just can you talk a little bit about what might have been unfettered demand or shipments in Q4? Or what you might be guiding to if you won't restricted by permits?

您能否談談第四季可能出現的不受限制的需求或出貨量？或者，如果您不受許可證的限制，您可能會引導人們去哪裡？

If we're not restricted by permits, then the basic question is our ability to manufacture high volume because there's no issue about demand or backlog. So the variable that you're really focusing on is manufacturing capability.

如果沒有許可證的限制，那麼基本問題就是我們能否大規模生產，因為不存在需求或積壓訂單的問題。所以，你真正關注的變數是製造能力。

Yeah. I don't know whether the customers are telling us more demand than we can deliver. But I think we definitely have more orders than we can now. As we add the capacity, we're counting on who we can supply to, but of course, there's other bidding factor, which is the permits.

是的。我不知道客戶提出的需求是否超過了我們的供應能力。但我認為我們目前的訂單量肯定超過了我們的產能。隨著產能的增加，我們取決於能向哪些客戶供貨，但當然，還有另一個競標因素，那就是許可證。

Got it. So I mean hypothetically, assuming you could be manufacturing around $20 million worth of indium phosphide, you could ship it all if you could get permitted?

知道了。所以我的意思是，假設你能生產價值約 2000 萬美元的磷化銦，如果你能獲得許可，你就能全部發貨嗎？

Yes, correct. And that will -- we expect it to increase it to about $35 million a quarter by the end of the year. And that we are making sure every point along the supply chain receives equal attention in terms of poly in terms of crucible furnaces, et cetera, et cetera.

是的，沒錯。預計到今年年底，這一數字將增至每季約 3,500 萬美元。我們正在確保供應鏈上的每一個環節，包括坩堝爐等，都受到同等的重視。

Understood. And then so you're completely confident that of that $35 million in capacity, if you can bring it on and you can get permits that come to end of this year, you could possibly be shipping $30 million, $35 million in orders. I guess is there -- are there any customer commitments or LTAs or anything else that kind of solidifies that demand?

明白了。所以你完全有信心，如果這 3500 萬美元的產能能夠實現，並且能夠獲得今年年底到期的許可證，那麼你有可能交付價值 3000 萬美元到 3500 萬美元的訂單。我想問的是，是否有任何客戶承諾、長期協議或其他任何可以鞏固這種需求的因素？

What's that turn you're seeing? LPA?

你看到的是什麼轉彎？LPA？

We've got a lot of purchase order in that right now, and we're going through long-term agreements. Long-term agreements, I think in terms of locking up capacity, are easy and we're talking to customers to lock that capacity up.

我們目前有許多採購訂單，並且正在洽談長期協議。我認為，就鎖定產能而言，簽訂長期協議很容易，我們正在與客戶洽談以鎖定這些產能。

The gating factor -- and we've reiterated this a lot today and previously, gating factor with long-term agreements is how much can we actually ship out of the country? What can we get permits for. So we're trying to address that through LTAs. But for sure, we can definitely cover this kind of revenue volume with purchase orders and LTAs.

限制因素——我們今天和以前都多次重申過這一點——長期協議的限制因素是我們實際上能向國外出口多少貨物？我們可以申請哪些許可證？所以我們正試圖透過長期協議來解決這個問題。但可以肯定的是，我們完全可以透過採購訂單和長期協議來涵蓋這種收入規模。

And then, Gary, I think the last one I have is for you. if you get to those numbers in terms of shipments for indium phosphide, so $30 million-plus, can you give us some of the parameters we should be thinking about in terms of gross margins. What are the puts and takes? And hypothetically would be able to get back to the kind of COVID-era highs you're reporting back in 2021, 2022?

最後，加里，我想最後一個問題是問你的問題。如果磷化銦的出貨量達到3000萬美元以上，可以告訴我們一些關於毛利率的參數嗎？有哪些買入和賣出操作？假設疫情持續蔓延，我們能否恢復到你們在 2021 年、2022 年報道的 COVID-19 疫情期間的那種高水準？

Yes. I mean we always like indium phosphide. And if you have to pick of our three substrate products that you want to see go through the ceiling in terms of volume and demand is the right one for us. I think getting somewhere at $40 million a quarter in aggregate, not just indium phosphide, but we should be getting hopefully somewhere close to 35% gross margin.

是的。我的意思是，我們一直都很喜歡磷化銦。如果要從我們三種基材產品中選出一種，希望其銷售量和需求能突破極限，那麼對我們來說，它就是最適合的選擇。我認為總收入應該能達到每季 4,000 萬美元左右，這不僅僅是磷化銦的收入，而且我們應該能夠獲得接近 35% 的毛利率。

I will add another point. I always describe AXT, it's a fairly unique company because we -- I describe our substrate business as the locomotive engine in the front, but we have a lot of cars in the back following us, such as indium, such as phosphorus, quartz, pBN crucibles furnaces we make. So if our business is good, we're pulling these guys along, and that should help us.

我再補充一點。我總是這樣描述 AXT，它是一家相當獨特的公司，因為我們——我把我們的基板業務比作前面的火車頭，但我們後面有很多車廂跟著我們，比如銦、磷、石英、我們生產的 pBN 坩堝爐。所以如果我們的生意好，我們就能帶動這些人一起發展，這應該對我們有幫助。

So what you're seeing -- I'm more optimistic and Gary said, I think that 35% is the normal substrate business. If we can pull those guys along that should help us even further.

所以你看到的是——我比較樂觀，Gary 說，我認為 35% 是正常的基質業務。如果我們能把他們拉攏過來，對我們會更有幫助。

Yeah. Yeah. Our internal goal is higher, Matt, but -- so that we don't overstate expectations from for your community, we want to be a little bit cautious. So we're very optimistic. So it's pretty exciting.

是的。是的。馬特，我們的內部目標更高，但是——為了不誇大你們社區的期望，我們想謹慎一些。所以我們非常樂觀。所以這很令人興奮。

And just one quick follow-up. The shift to 4-inch and 6-inch does that change the parameters on a gross margin perspective?

還有一個後續問題。改用 4 吋和 6 吋的規格，從毛利率的角度來看，會改變哪些參數？

I think normally the larger the size we go, the better the margin we will get. On the other hand, I'll be more cautious about 6 inches. We are still a little bit in development stage. So I think initially, looking at lower margin, but looking for ways to compensate that. Right, Tim?

我認為通常來說，尺寸越大，利潤就越高。另一方面，對於6吋這個尺寸我會更加謹慎。我們目前仍處於開發階段。所以我覺得一開始要考慮的是較低的利潤率，但要找要彌補的方法。對吧，提姆？

Right. Product mix is still very much geared towards 3-inch and 4-inch at the moment. And as Morris says, we're running 6-inch up. It is still a bit of a development project at the moment. It will be growing through this year. But again, remember, as we do that, 3-inch and 4-inch are still a big percentage of our business.

正確的。目前產品組合仍主要以 3 吋和 4 吋的產品為主。正如莫里斯所說，我們向上移動了 6 英寸。目前它仍處於開發階段。今年它將繼續增長。但請記住，即便我們這樣做，3英寸和4英寸的產品仍然占我們業務的很大一部分。

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Leslie Green for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給萊斯利·格林，請她作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, Audra, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating virtually in the Loop Capital Conference in March and hope to see many of you there. As always, feel free to contact us if you would like to set up a call, and we look forward to speaking with you soon.

謝謝奧德拉，也謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我們將於三月以線上形式參加 Loop Capital 會議，希望屆時能見到大家。像往常一樣，如果您想安排通話，請隨時聯繫我們，我們期待盡快與您通話。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。