使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's fourth-quarter 2024 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, Vice President of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is [Prilla], and I will be your conference operator today.
大家下午好,歡迎參加AXT 2024年第四季財務電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是執行長莫里斯楊博士和財務長加里菲舍爾。此外,業務發展副總裁 Tim Bettles 將參加電話會議的問答部分。我的名字是[Prilla],今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。
(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. You may begin.
(操作員指示)現在,我想將會議交給 AXT 投資者關係部門的 Leslie Green。你可以開始了。
Leslie Green - Investor Relations
Leslie Green - Investor Relations
Thank you, Prilla, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity.
謝謝你,普里拉,大家下午好。在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,在本次電話會議的過程中,包括對您的問題的回答中所發表的評論,我們將提供預測或做出其他前瞻性陳述,其中包括公司未來財務業績、市場狀況和趨勢、使用在我們的基板上製造的芯片或設備的新興應用、我們的產品組合、全球經濟和政治狀況,包括貿易和進出口。
We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies, increased environmental regulations in China, and COVID-19 and other outbreaks of contagious disease.
我們希望提醒您,此類聲明涉及未來事件,基於管理層當前的預期,並受可能導致實際事件或結果大不相同的風險和不確定性的影響。除了剛剛列出的事項之外,這些不確定因素和風險包括但不限於我們部分擁有的供應鏈公司的財務業績、中國加強的環境法規以及 COVID-19 和其他傳染病的爆發。
In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
除了剛才提到或可能在本次電話會議中討論的因素之外,我們還請您參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。
These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This call will be available on our website at axt.com through February 20, 2026.
這些內容可透過我們網站的連結在線獲取,並包含有關可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素的附加資訊。此電話會議將於 2026 年 2 月 20 日之前在我們的網站 axt.com 上發布。
Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of the market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2024. This information is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at axt.com.
另外,我想指出的是,今天市場收盤後不久,我們發布了一份新聞稿,報告了第四季度和 2024 財年的財務業績。此資訊可在我們網站 axt.com 的投資者關係部分找到。
I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our fourth quarter 2024 results. Gary?
現在,我想將電話轉給 Gary Fischer,以審查我們 2024 年第四季的業績。加里?
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $25.1 million compared with $23.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $20.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.
謝謝你,萊斯利,祝大家下午好。2024 年第四季的營收為 2,510 萬美元,而 2024 年第三季的營收為 2,360 萬美元,2023 年第四季的營收為 2,040 萬美元。
To break down our Q4 '24 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide was $9.1 million, reflecting continued demand from data center applications including AI as well as passive optical networks. Gallium arsenide was $5.4 million, germanium substrates were $1.6 million, and finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q4 was $9.0 million based on continued healthy demand. In the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue from Asia Pacific was 79%, Europe was 11%, and North America was 10%.
按產品類別細分我們的 24 年第四季收入,磷化銦為 910 萬美元,反映了包括人工智慧以及被動光網路在內的資料中心應用的持續需求。砷化鎵為 540 萬美元,鍺基板為 160 萬美元,最後,由於持續健康的需求,我們第四季合併原料合資公司的收入為 900 萬美元。2024年第四季,來自亞太地區的營收佔79%,歐洲佔11%,北美佔10%。
The top five customers generated approximately 36% of total revenue and 1 customer was over the 10% level. Non-GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter was 17.9% compared with 24.3% in Q3 of 2024 and 23.2% in Q4 of 2023. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the fourth quarter was 17.6% compared with 24.0% in Q3 and 22.6% in Q4 of 2023.
前五名客戶創造了約 36% 的總收入,其中 1 個客戶的收入超過了 10%。第四季非公認會計準則毛利率為 17.9%,而 2024 年第三季為 24.3%,2023 年第四季為 23.2%。對於喜歡以 GAAP 追蹤結果的人來說,第四季的毛利率為 17.6%,而 2023 年第三季為 24.0%,第四季為 22.6%。
The decline in gross margin is primarily the result of lower benefits from our recycling program in the quarter as well as lower ingot starts and crystal growth which resulted in under-absorption of our manufacturing overhead, but which also enabled us to reduce the inventory. Moving to operating expenses, total non-GAAP operating expense in Q4 was $9.9 million compared with $9.0 million in Q3 of 2024 and $7.5 million in Q4 of 2023.
毛利率下降主要是由於本季我們的回收計畫收益降低,以及矽錠開工率和晶體生長率降低,導致我們的製造費用吸收不足,但也使我們能夠減少庫存。談到營運費用,第四季的非 GAAP 總營運費用為 990 萬美元,而 2024 年第三季為 900 萬美元,2023 年第四季為 750 萬美元。
On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q4 was $10.6 million compared with $9.1 million in Q3 and $8.2 million in Q4 of 2023. The increase in OpEx in Q4 was primarily the result of an increase in legal expenses as well as an increase in R&D expenses related to investment in low EPD gallium arsenide crystal growth for the wireless market. We also continue to invest in the development of our 6-inch indium phosphide for a variety of applications.
以 GAAP 計算,第四季的總營運費用為 1,060 萬美元,而第三季為 910 萬美元,2023 年第四季為 820 萬美元。第四季營運支出的增加主要是由於法律費用的增加以及與無線市場低 EPD 砷化鎵晶體生長投資相關的研發費用的增加。我們也將繼續投資開發適用於多種應用的6吋磷化銦。
Our non-GAAP operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $5.4 million compared with a non-GAAP operating loss in Q3 of 2024 of $2.6 million and a non-GAAP operating loss of $2.7 million in Q4 2023. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the fourth quarter of 2024 was a loss of $6.2 million compared with an operating loss of $3.4 million in Q3 and an operating loss of $3.6 million in Q4 2023.
我們 2024 年第四季的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 540 萬美元,而 2024 年第三季的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 260 萬美元,2023 年第四季的非 GAAP 營業虧損為 270 萬美元。作為參考,我們 2024 年第四季的 GAAP 營業線虧損為 620 萬美元,而 2023 年第三季的營業虧損為 340 萬美元,第四季的營業虧損為 360 萬美元。
Nonoperating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the fourth quarter of 2024 was a net gain of $1.1 million. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today.
2024 年第四季的非營業性其他收入和支出以及營業線以下的其他項目淨收益為 110 萬美元。詳細資訊請參閱我們今天新聞稿中的損益表。
For Q4 2024, we had a non-GAAP net loss of $4.3 million or $0.10 per share compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $2.1 million or $0.05 per share in the third quarter of 2024. Non-GAAP net loss in Q4 of 2023 was $2.8 million or $0.07 per share. On a GAAP basis, net loss in Q4 was $5.1 million or $0.12 per share.
2024 年第四季,我們的非 GAAP 淨虧損為 430 萬美元或每股 0.10 美元,而 2024 年第三季的非 GAAP 淨虧損為 210 萬美元或每股 0.05 美元。2023 年第四季非 GAAP 淨虧損為 280 萬美元,即每股 0.07 美元。根據 GAAP 計算,第四季淨虧損為 510 萬美元,即每股 0.12 美元。
By comparison, net loss was $2.9 million or $0.07 per share in the third quarter of 2024 and the GAAP net loss in Q4 of 2023 was $3.6 million or $0.09 per share. The weighted average basic shares outstanding in Q4 was $43.4 million.
相比之下,2024 年第三季的淨虧損為 290 萬美元或每股 0.07 美元,2023 年第四季的 GAAP 淨虧損為 360 萬美元或每股 0.09 美元。第四季的加權平均基本流通股為 4,340 萬美元。
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments decreased by $5.0 million to $33.8 million as of December 31. By comparison, at September 30, it was $38.8 million. The decrease is mostly balance sheet related as over $3 million of the total loss was made up from noncash depreciation and stock comp.
截至 12 月 31 日,現金、現金等價物和投資減少了 500 萬美元,至 3,380 萬美元。相比之下,截至 9 月 30 日,這一數字為 3,880 萬美元。這一下降主要與資產負債表有關,因為總損失中超過 300 萬美元是由非現金折舊和股票補償構成的。
The biggest balance sheet item was that we reduced our loan balance by $6.8 million. Depreciation and amortization in the fourth quarter was $2.2 million. Total stock comp was $0.8 million. Net inventory was down a bit over $1 million in the fourth quarter to $85.1 million, down from the peak by $6.6 million, and we are working to bring it down further. Finished goods make up less than $3 million, and that is a positive.
資產負債表上最大的項目是我們減少了 680 萬美元的貸款餘額。第四季的折舊和攤提為 220 萬美元。總股票補償金額為 80 萬美元。第四季淨庫存下降了 100 多萬美元,至 8,510 萬美元,較高峰下降了 660 萬美元,我們正在努力進一步降低庫存。成品價值不到 300 萬美元,這是一件好事。
This concludes our discussion of the quarterly financials. For the fiscal year 2024 in total, revenue was $99.4 million, up from $75.8 million in fiscal year 2023 and reflecting growth in every revenue category across our portfolio.
關於季度財務狀況的討論到此結束。2024 財年的總收入為 9,940 萬美元,高於 2023 財年的 7,580 萬美元,反映了我們投資組合中每個收入類別的成長。
This is a 31% increase in revenue and underscores the improvement we are seeing in our business with major market trends driving the adoption of new technologies, a recovery in the global demand environment, and our own success in winning share at strategic customers.
這是收入的31%的增長,凸顯了我們業務的改善,主要市場趨勢推動了新技術的採用,全球需求環境的複蘇,以及我們自身在戰略客戶中贏得份額的成功。
Gross margin for the fiscal year 2024 on a non-GAAP basis was 24.3%, up from 18.1% for fiscal 2023. GAAP gross margin for 2024 was 24% of revenue, up from 17.6% for fiscal year 2023.
2024 財年非 GAAP 毛利率為 24.3%,高於 2023 財年的 18.1%。2024 年 GAAP 毛利率為營收的 24%,高於 2023 財年的 17.6%。
Net loss for the fiscal year 2024 on a non-GAAP basis improved to $8.5 million or $0.20 per diluted share compared to the net loss of $14.3 million or $0.34 per share for fiscal year 2023. GAAP net loss for the fiscal year 2024 was $11.6 million or $0.27 per diluted share, up from a net loss of $17.9 million or $0.42 per share for fiscal year 2023.
以非 GAAP 計算,2024 財年淨虧損改善至 850 萬美元或每股攤薄虧損 0.20 美元,而 2023 財年的淨虧損為 1,430 萬美元或每股 0.34 美元。2024 財年的 GAAP 淨虧損為 1,160 萬美元或每股攤薄虧損 0.27 美元,高於 2023 財年的淨虧損 1,790 萬美元或每股 0.42 美元。
Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary Tongmei in China on the STAR Market in Shanghai, we have continued to keep our IPO application current. Tongmei remains in process as part of a much more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago. We continue to think that Tongmei is a good IPO candidate, and we will keep you informed of any updates.
關於我們將中國子公司同美在上海科創板上市的計劃,我們一直在保持 IPO 申請的更新。同煤集團仍在籌備上市,與幾年前相比,該集團的潛在上市公司數量更加挑剔,規模也更小。我們仍然認為同煤集團是一個很好的 IPO 候選公司,我們將隨時向你通報任何最新消息。
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?
說完這些,我現在將電話轉給莫里斯楊博士,讓他回顧我們的業務和市場。莫里斯?
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Gary. While Q4 gross margin and net loss fell short of our expectation, our improvement in 2024 over the previous year was significant. We delivered a 31% increase in fiscal year revenue, a 6% improvement in non-GAAP gross margin, and 40% improvement in non-GAAP net loss.
謝謝你,加里。雖然第四季的毛利率和淨虧損未達到我們的預期,但我們 2024 年的表現較前一年有顯著提升。我們的財年收入成長了31%,非公認會計準則毛利率提高了6%,非公認會計準則淨虧損改善了40%。
Over the last 12 months, we have aggressively advanced the technical specifications of our material to help our global customer base solve complex next-generation connectivity challenges.
在過去的 12 個月裡,我們積極推進材料的技術規格,以幫助我們的全球客戶解決複雜的下一代連接挑戰。
More and more, the materials we supply are being used in highly sophisticated applications such as high-speed interconnects, where our breakthroughs in delivering extremely low EPDs are showing tremendous value to device performance.
我們所供應的材料越來越多地被用於高速互連等高度複雜的應用中,我們在實現極低 EPD 方面所取得的突破對設備性能顯示出了巨大的價值。
2024 marked a very meaningful year of revenue growth into the cloud and data center infrastructure market as well as our successful penetration of wireless handset market, particularly in China. We have also expanded our portfolio of our raw material companies, creating a unique valuable supply chain and laying the groundwork for incremental revenue opportunities in new markets such as pBN.
2024 年是雲端運算和資料中心基礎設施市場收入成長以及我們成功進入無線手機市場(尤其是在中國)的重要一年。我們還擴大了原材料公司的組合,創建了獨特且有價值的供應鏈,並為在 pBN 等新市場中增加收入機會奠定了基礎。
And finally, we brought to market both 8-inch gallium arsenide and 6-inch indium phosphide substrates, driving new innovation into our development capabilities that we can translate into better performance and higher yield across our product families.
最後,我們向市場推出了8吋砷化鎵和6吋磷化銦基板,為我們的開發能力帶來了新的創新,從而可以轉化為我們產品系列的更好性能和更高的產量。
As we look ahead of 2025, while there are some new challenges, we see a number of exciting opportunities created by both industry trends and company-specific opportunities.
展望 2025 年,雖然存在一些新的挑戰,但我們看到行業趨勢和公司特定機會創造了許多令人興奮的機會。
Now first to challenges. As many of you may know, on February 4, China government imposed trade restrictions on the export of indium phosphide material. Similar to the 2023 restriction on gallium arsenide substrates, these regulations explicitly seek to restrict the export of material used for military applications.
現在首先要面對挑戰。大家可能都知道,2月4日,中國政府對磷化銦材料的出口實施了貿易限制。與 2023 年對砷化鎵基板的限制類似,這些法規明確尋求限制用於軍事用途的材料的出口。
Therefore, we are now undertaking an export permit process for indium phosphide similar to what we have been working through with gallium arsenide over the last two years. The good news is that it is an organized and efficient process that we're very familiar with, and we believe that we have similar success, we will have similar success.
因此,我們目前正在進行磷化銦的出口許可程序,與過去兩年我們對砷化鎵的出口許可程序類似。好消息是,這是一個我們非常熟悉的有組織、有效率的流程,我們相信我們會取得類似的成功,我們將會取得類似的成功。
We are already working with our customers outside of China to prepare applications on their behalf and expect to be able to submit our first application in early March.
我們已開始與中國以外的客戶合作,為他們準備申請,預計三月初提交第一份申請。
In our experience, we typically hear back initial applications within 40 to 45 business days and repeat applications are often processed faster. As such, we expect to see a delay in a portion of our indium phosphide revenue in Q1 as we begin this process.
根據我們的經驗,我們通常會在 40 到 45 個工作天內收到初次申請的回复,重複申請的處理速度通常會更快。因此,隨著我們開始這個過程,我們預計第一季磷化銦的部分收入將會延遲。
For reference, in 2024, about 40% of our indium phosphide revenue came from China and was about 60% coming from the rest of the world. In Q1, we expect the impact of our revenue line of approximately $4 million to $5 million in delayed sales.
作為參考,到 2024 年,我們的磷化銦收入約 40% 來自中國,約 60% 來自世界其他地區。在第一季度,我們預計銷售延遲將對我們的收入造成約 400 萬至 500 萬美元的影響。
This said, we don't believe that any of our indium phosphide sales go to military applications, so we feel we are in a good position to realize sales once we can navigate the permit process.
儘管如此,我們認為我們的磷化銦銷售不會用於軍事應用,因此我們認為,一旦我們能夠完成許可程序,我們就有良好的條件來實現銷售。
Now, challenges aside, let's turn to the key business opportunities and growth drivers for 2025. In cloud and datacenter connectivity, customers are pushing the boundary of high-speed optical interconnects to support the growth of AI adoptions.
現在,除了挑戰之外,讓我們來談談 2025 年的關鍵商業機會和成長動力。在雲端和資料中心連接方面,客戶正在突破高速光互連的界限,以支援人工智慧應用的成長。
Recent algorithmic improvements have shown the potential to deliver AI applications with better returns on investment for AI infrastructure providers worldwide. These innovations can enable increased adoption and broader use case for AI globally. Within this use case, we have several new and emerging opportunities.
最近的演算法改進顯示出為全球人工智慧基礎設施提供者提供具有更好投資回報的人工智慧應用的潛力。這些創新可以促進人工智慧在全球的採用和更廣泛的使用。在這個用例中,我們有幾個新的和正在出現的機會。
First, the industry is beginning its transition from VCSEL lasers to speed of 50-gig per lane to 100-gig per lane and higher. Not only are these high-speed VCSELs opening up new opportunity for us with gallium arsenide, they have also created a greenfield market opportunity for high-speed indium phosphide-based photodetectors in 400 and 800-gig multimode optical interconnects.
首先,該行業開始從 VCSEL 雷射器轉向每通道 50 GB 到每通道 100 GB 及更高的速度。這些高速 VCSEL 不僅為我們利用砷化鎵開闢了新機遇,而且還為 400 和 800 Gig 多模光互連中基於高速磷化銦的光電探測器創造了全新的市場機會。
We saw indium phosphide orders relating to this application throughout 2024, which we believe will continue to grow in 2025. Our R&D investment have allowed us to deliver significant innovation on extremely low EPD ion diode indium phosphide substrates for next-generation EML lasers for 800-gig and 1.6T pluggable transceivers. EPD refers to the defect density of a material and is a critical specification in device reliability.
我們在 2024 年全年都看到了與此應用相關的磷化銦訂單,我們相信到 2025 年這項訂單將繼續增長。我們的研發投入使我們能夠在用於 800-gig 和 1.6T 可插拔收發器的下一代 EML 雷射器的極低 EPD 離子二極管磷化銦基板方面實現重大創新。EPD 是指材料的缺陷密度,是設備可靠性的關鍵規格。
I'm extremely proud of our team for their breakthrough achievement. I believe AXT leads the industry in low EPD ion diode material. We're currently in the qualification path of a major supplier for deployment in 2026. Initial feedback from our customers suggest that our low-EPD characteristics is translating to highly valuable performance and reliability advantages over competing material.
我為我們團隊所取得的突破性成就感到非常自豪。我相信 AXT 在低 EPD 離子二極體材料領域處於行業領先地位。我們目前正在進行一家主要供應商的資格認證,以便在 2026 年進行部署。來自我們客戶的初步回饋表明,我們的低 EPD 特性比競爭材料具有更寶貴的性能和可靠性優勢。
We continue to work with a number of customers worldwide and are also seeing exciting opportunities with next-generation silicon photonics devices for 800-gig and 1.6T pluggable transceivers for medium to long-distance transmission.
我們繼續與全球範圍內的眾多客戶合作,同時也看到了用於中長距離傳輸的800千兆和1.6T可插拔收發器的下一代矽光子設備帶來的激動人心的機會。
For example, we saw growth in demand with increased orders in Q3 and Q4 from one of our largest US silicon photonics customers. We also believe that China datacenters are preparing for broader adoption of optical technology, which we view as an emerging opportunity.
例如,我們看到需求成長,我們最大的美國矽光子客戶之一在第三季和第四季的訂單增加。我們也相信,中國的資料中心正在為更廣泛地採用光學技術做準備,我們認為這是一個新興的機會。
It is worthwhile to note that we are actively working with customers on their road map for co-packaged optics and view this as a major opportunity. One of the hardest challenges for this emerging technology to overcome will be the reliability at scale which is where low EPD wafers make a critical difference.
值得注意的是,我們正在積極與客戶合作制定共封裝光學元件的路線圖,並將此視為重大機會。這項新興技術需要克服的最困難的挑戰之一是規模可靠性,而低 EPD 晶圓在其中發揮了關鍵作用。
We believe that our ability to provide extremely low EPD substrates will help customers solve this challenge when the industry moves towards widespread adoption in the years to come. In addition to datacenter and AI applications, we see a second exciting opportunity in 2025 for our gallium arsenide substrates in HPT devices for the wireless market.
我們相信,當產業在未來幾年走向廣泛採用時,我們提供極低 EPD 基板的能力將有助於客戶解決這項挑戰。除了資料中心和人工智慧應用之外,我們還看到 2025 年無線市場 HPT 設備中砷化鎵基板的第二個令人興奮的機會。
Just two years ago, our market share was virtually zero. Today, with cost and performance breakthroughs as well as strong relationship building with one of our largest Asian-based epi providers, we now have about 10% of the overall market with particular strength in China. Expanding and accelerating our growth in this market is a key focus for us in 2025.
就在兩年前,我們的市佔率幾乎為零。今天,憑藉成本和性能方面的突破,以及與亞洲最大的外延供應商之一建立的牢固關係,我們目前已佔據整個市場的 10% 左右,尤其在中國市場佔有優勢。擴大和加速我們在這個市場的成長是我們 2025 年的重點。
With availability of our 8-inch gallium arsenide substrates as well as the process improvement we can apply to our 6-inch line, we feel we're confident we can be extremely competitive in this market and continue to grow our market share.
憑藉我們8吋砷化鎵基板的可用性以及可應用於我們6吋生產線的製程改進,我們有信心在這個市場上具有極強的競爭力,並繼續擴大我們的市場份額。
As the third growth driver for 2025, we see opportunities in the continued recovery of global demand environment on applications such as passive optical networks, high-power industrial lasers, particularly in China as well as LEDs for a wide variety of use case, including lighting, display, horticulture and automotive. We do see the demand environment improving incrementally and inventory relatively low.
作為 2025 年的第三大成長動力,我們看到全球需求環境持續復甦為無源光網路、高功率工業雷射(尤其是在中國)等應用以及照明、顯示器、園藝和汽車等各種用途的 LED 帶來了機會。我們確實看到需求環境正在逐步改善且庫存相對較低。
And finally, we have not talked as much in recent quarters about our raw material joint ventures. I do want to note that we have continued to invest in expanding our capability and build an enviable portfolio, which today includes gallium, arsenic, pBN crucibles, quartz, indium, rare phosphorus and germanium.
最後,最近幾季我們較少談論原料合資企業。我確實想指出的是,我們一直在投資擴大我們的能力並建立令人羨慕的產品組合,如今其中包括鎵、砷、pBN 坩堝、石英、銦、稀有磷和鍺。
The strategic value of this material is not only that we can more cost effectively supply all our critical materials needed to manufacture a product, but also, we benefit from additional revenue streams generated by our joint ventures through the sales of this product on the open market.
這種材料的戰略價值不僅在於我們能夠以更具成本效益的方式供應製造產品所需的所有關鍵材料,而且我們還可以透過在公開市場上銷售該產品,從我們的合資企業中獲得額外的收入來源。
In 2024, our consolidated joint venture generated almost $32 million in revenue, up 12% from the prior year. We're working to expand this opportunity in 2025 through the development of new markets and to continue the valuable recycling effort that also contributes to our gross margin performance.
2024 年,我們的合併合資企業創造了近 3,200 萬美元的收入,比前一年成長 12%。我們正在努力在 2025 年透過開發新市場來擴大這一機會,並繼續進行有價值的回收工作,這也有助於提高我們的毛利率。
In summary, 2024 was a year of recovery and growth for our business. One of the things that I'm most proud of is the relentless innovation spirit of our team this year in taking on highly complex material science challenges for our customers and delivering results that the industry would have considered impossible just a few short time ago.
總而言之,2024 年是我們業務復甦和成長的一年。我最自豪的事情之一是今年我們團隊不懈的創新精神,為我們的客戶應對高度複雜的材料科學挑戰,並取得了不久前業界認為不可能實現的成果。
These advances will enable an entirely new generation of devices capable of bringing such wonders as AI to the world. What we have built and continue to build for our customers and shareholders is an incredibly valuable company that can serve most cutting-edge requirements through our leading technology, unique supply chain and world-class manufacturing.
這些進步將使全新一代設備能夠為世界帶來人工智慧等奇蹟。我們已經並將繼續為我們的客戶和股東打造一家極具價值的公司,透過領先的技術、獨特的供應鏈和世界一流的製造工藝,滿足最前沿的需求。
I want to say a special thanks to our team and their families for a productive 2024. And to our customers and shareholders, I want to thank you for your partnership. We have work to do on your behalf, and we are deeply committed to deliver further improvement in 2025.
我要特別感謝我們的團隊和他們的家人,感謝他們度過了一個富有成效的 2024 年。對於我們的客戶和股東,我要感謝你們的合作。我們需要為您開展工作,並且我們堅定地致力於在 2025 年取得進一步的進步。
With that, I will turn the call back to Gary for our first quarter guidance. Gary?
說完這些,我將把電話轉回給加里,詢問我們第一季的預測。加里?
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Thank you, Morris. In keeping with our comments today, we expect Q1 revenue to be in the range of $18.0 million and $20.0 million. This takes into consideration growth in gallium arsenide substrates, but that's offset by the impact from the indium phosphide trade restrictions and a modest decrease in raw material revenues.
謝謝你,莫里斯。根據我們今天的評論,我們預計第一季的收入將在 1800 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間。這考慮了砷化鎵基板的成長,但這被磷化銦貿易限制和原材料收入的小幅下降的影響所抵消。
We, therefore, expect our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.13 to $0.15 and GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.15 to $0.17. Share count will be approximately 43.5 million shares.
因此,我們預計非 GAAP 淨虧損將在 0.13 美元至 0.15 美元之間,GAAP 淨虧損將在 0.15 美元至 0.17 美元之間。股數約4,350萬股。
This concludes our prepared comments. We can now answer any of your questions. Operator?
我們的準備好的評論到此結束。我們現在可以回答您的任何問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Richard Shannon, Craig-Hallum.
(操作員指示)理查德·香農,克雷格·哈勒姆。
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a two-part question looking back into the fourth quarter here and understanding the dynamics and how long they may continue here. So obviously, a little disappointed on the gross margins and OpEx here.
好的。偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。也許這是一個由兩部分組成的問題,回顧第四季度並了解動態以及它們可能持續多長時間。因此顯然,這裡的毛利率和營運成本有點令人失望。
With gross margins I think you said some lesser benefits from recycling along with lower ingot starts here that limited absorption here, and it sounds like you are trying to trim inventory lower. To what degree are we going to see this below recent trends here? When should it come up here?
就毛利率而言,我認為您說過回收帶來的一些好處較少,加上這裡錠材開工率較低,限制了這裡的吸收量,這聽起來像是您正在試圖削減庫存。在最近的趨勢下我們將在多大程度上看到這一點?它什麼時候會出現在這裡?
And then also on the OpEx here, I think that you said you were spending a little bit more R&D for indium phosphide for wireless. Maybe you can indicate how long investments will continue there as well.
然後關於這裡的營運支出,我想您說過您在無線磷化銦研發上花費了更多一點。或許您也可以指出投資將持續多久。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, it's a fairly complex question. Gary, do you want to take a first crack at it?
嗯,這是一個相當複雜的問題。加里,你想先嘗試嗎?
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Yeah. What was the first question in short?
是的。簡而言之,第一個問題是什麼?
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Gross margins, a little bit lower here, a couple of dynamics here, wondering how -- to what degree they're going to continue past the fourth quarter.
毛利率在這裡稍微低一點,這裡有一些動態,想知道它們將在第四季度持續到何種程度。
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Well, we do expect gross margins to be low again in Q1 because we're not going to have as much indium phosphide sales because of the export restrictions. Following Q1, then we think they'll get back into the -- at least the mid-20%s, which is what we were targeting and running towards. And then I think that we can inch them up quarter by quarter.
嗯,我們確實預計第一季的毛利率會再次走低,因為由於出口限制,我們的磷化銦銷售不會那麼多。我們認為,在第一季之後,他們的成長率將至少回到 20% 左右,這正是我們的目標和努力方向。然後我認為我們可以逐季度逐步提高這個目標。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think to answer the question about the R&D activities, yes, we have taken quite a bit of effort in both 6-inch indium phosphide development, and also, we're leveraging our 8-inch Crystacomm knowledge we learned on 8-inch and applying that technology to our 6-inch line, which takes us quite a bit of development effort. But I think it's on the tail end of that effort. We should start to enjoy the benefit of better yield and better performance on the 6-inch line with the knowledge we have on 8-inch.
是的。我想回答關於研發活動的問題,是的,我們在 6 英寸磷化銦開發方面付出了相當大的努力,同時,我們正在利用我們在 8 英寸上學到的 8 英寸 Crystacomm 知識,並將該技術應用到我們的 6 英寸生產線上,這需要我們付出相當大的開發努力。但我認為這是這項努力的最後階段。我們應該利用我們在 8 吋生產線上累積的知識,開始享受 6 吋生產線上更高的產量和更佳性能帶來的好處。
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Okay. Let's follow up on indium phosphide here. It sounds like you're getting some really good activity related to datacenters here. Maybe if you can just dig in a little deeper and help us understand where you're seeing a little bit relatively more of the opportunity, whether it's coming from lasers or from PDs or photodetectors.
好的。讓我們在這裡追蹤磷化銦。聽起來你在這裡得到了一些與資料中心相關的非常好的活動。也許如果您可以深入挖掘一下,並幫助我們了解您在哪裡看到了相對更多的機會,無論它是來自雷射器、PD 還是光電探測器。
I think if I caught -- if my notes are right here, you talked about a fairly large opportunity that could come to pass from a revenue perspective in '26. Maybe you can provide a little bit more information on that as well, Morris.
我想如果我抓住了--如果我的筆記就在這裡的話,你談到了從26年的收入角度來看可能出現的一個相當大的機會。莫里斯,也許您也可以提供更多有關這方面的資訊。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Tim, do you want to take that on that question? Because I think -- I mean although I can answer that, but Tim is probably the frontline knowing about this opportunity we should have in 2026 on low ion diode EPD stuff for the EML. Right, Tim?
提姆,你想回答這個問題嗎?因為我認為——我的意思是雖然我可以回答這個問題,但蒂姆可能是最先知道我們應該在 2026 年為 EML 提供低離子二極管 EPD 材料的這個機會的人。對吧,提姆?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Yeah. Yeah, right. What we've seen in '24 is we've seen growth both on the photodetector side and the laser side of it. On the photodetector side, we've got this greenfield opportunity, which we've talked about in the past, where the high-speed VCSELs running at 100-gig per lane now need to move over to an in-gas indium phosphide-based photodetector.
是的。是的,對。我們在 24 年看到的是光電探測器方面和雷射方面的成長。在光電探測器方面,我們有這個綠地機會,我們過去曾討論過,每通道 100Gig 的高速 VCSEL 現在需要轉移到基於氣相磷化銦的光電探測器。
Obviously, the world is seeing a lot of growth in the gallium arsenide VCSEL-based transceivers for us, and we're enjoying that, too.
顯然,世界看到我們基於砷化鎵 VCSEL 的收發器取得了巨大的成長,我們也對此感到高興。
But this greenfield opportunity has opened up for the indium phosphide side of it. We're also seeing a really healthy increase in the datacenter laser side of it. And as you probably know, we're focused more on the silicon photonics side and the EML side than we are on the more traditional DML-based applications.
但這綠地機會已為磷化銦領域開啟。我們也看到資料中心雷射的真正健康成長。您可能知道,我們更關注矽光子學和 EML 方面,而不是更傳統的基於 DML 的應用。
We're not participating that heavily in the DML side of it. And you'll see more growth coming through 2025 as the industry moves to the EML and the silicon photonics market.
我們並沒有深入參與 DML 方面的事情。隨著產業轉向 EML 和矽光子市場,到 2025 年您將看到更多的成長。
One of the interesting things as well that Morris mentioned was this new application on low EPD ion diodes. We're definitely seeing I think some new opportunities coming up there with a number of different customers. It's something to keep an eye on for next-generation EMLs.
莫里斯也提到的一個有趣的事情是低 EPD 離子二極體的新應用。我認為我們確實看到許多不同的客戶帶來了一些新的機會。對於下一代 EML,這是值得關注的事情。
I think we'll see some growth through there in '25 and into '26. So yes, I think we're going to see some healthy growth rate on, again, both lasers and detectors in 2025.
我認為我們將在25年和26年看到一些成長。所以是的,我認為到 2025 年我們將再次看到雷射和探測器的健康增長率。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Let me chime in here a little bit perhaps. EML, it means you have a laser-based device and you use indium phosphide modulator on the chip to regulate on and off performance of this module. And I think most of the lasers require low EPD.
也許讓我在這裡稍微插嘴一下。EML,這意味著你有一個基於雷射的設備,並且你使用晶片上的磷化銦調製器來調節該模組的開啟和關閉性能。我認為大多數雷射都需要低 EPD。
One of the traditional methods of making laser is using sulfatope to strengthen the lattice to reduce the defect density to as low as less than 100 per centimeter square. Because lasers are very sensitive to defect density, EPDs.
製作雷射的傳統方法之一是利用硫酸鹽來強化晶格,將缺陷密度降低到每平方公分不到100個。由於雷射對缺陷密度非常敏感,因此 EPD。
However, if you want to use ion diode material, the ion diode doesn't have the benefit of lattice hardening, so the EPD of this ion diode material traditionally is in the thousands of EPD. While you want to combine -- and the reason why you want to use ion diode I think, has something to do with the transient time being shorter, so you can modulate this device faster, so you have a faster response.
但是如果要使用離子二極體材料的話,離子二極體不具備晶格硬化的好處,所以這種離子二極體材料的EPD傳統上是在數千EPD。而你想要結合——我認為你想要使用離子二極體的原因與瞬態時間更短有關,這樣你就可以更快地調製這個設備,從而得到更快的響應。
However, you also need a lower EPD to make this device more reliable. You are caught in between wanting the device to perform better with the EML and also want a lower EPD to improve the reliability. And we believe that we have the ability to make the EPD lower than our competition. And our customers are finding out these prove out to be more desirable for the EML development.
但是,您還需要更低的 EPD 來使該設備更加可靠。您一方面希望設備在使用 EML 時效能更佳,另一方面又希望降低 EPD 以提高可靠性。而且我們相信我們有能力讓EPD低於我們的競爭對手。我們的客戶發現這些對於 EML 開發來說更為有利。
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Okay. I'm going to ask one more question and jump out of line here. And that's related to China and the tariffs and export controls. You had some prepared remarks that were very helpful here. It sounds like you expect the experience of the permitting or licensing process to be similar to what you saw in gallium arsenide.
好的。我要再問一個問題,並且在此略過不談。這與中國以及關稅和出口管制有關。您準備好的一些發言非常有幫助。聽起來您期望許可或授權過程的經驗與您在砷化鎵中看到的類似。
And while you're obviously seeing a bit of a dip here while the length of that process unfolds here, but I guess I just want to make sure that you're not expecting any issues. And maybe looking back to your experience in gallium arsenide, did you have any that you would expect to be better or worse than when we get to indium phosphide?
雖然您顯然會看到,隨著這個過程的長度不斷延長,這裡出現了一些下降,但我想我只是想確保您不會遇到任何問題。回顧您在砷化鎵方面的經驗,您是否認為它會比磷化銦更好或更差?
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Tim, again, you're the honcho on developing exports, so can you answer that question, Tim, for me?
是的。提姆,再說一次,你是發展出口的負責人,所以你能回答我這個問題嗎,提姆?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Yeah, I can. We certainly understand the geopolitical complexities in this. And what the indium phosphide controls, and I'll call them controls rather than restrictions. What they seek to prevent is the exports of materials, indium phosphide materials for military applications. When they -- when China placed controls on the export of gallium arsenide, the same thing, it was military applications.
是的,我可以。我們當然了解其中的地緣政治複雜性。而磷化銦所控制的,我稱之為控製而不是限制。他們想要阻止的是用於軍事用途的磷化銦材料的出口。當中國對砷化鎵的出口實施管制時,同樣的事情也發生在軍事用途。
In indium phosphide, we don't see any of our customers really, certainly the volume customers, that use indium phosphide for military applications. It is well-known Tier 1 customers using them predominantly for data communication.
在磷化銦方面,我們實際上沒有看到任何客戶,當然是批量客戶,將磷化銦用於軍事應用。眾所周知,一級客戶主要使用它們進行數據通訊。
We anticipate that given the true restrictions on military background, we think that we shouldn't have too many issues getting permits for nonmilitary-related customers in nonmilitary applications. So we feel good that we can be successful in getting the permits that we need on this application.
我們預計,考慮到對軍事背景的真正限制,我們認為在非軍事應用中為非軍事相關客戶取得許可證應該不會遇到太多問題。因此,我們很高興能夠成功獲得此申請所需的許可。
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Richard Shannon - Analyst
Okay. I appreciate all the detail, guys. I will step on the line. Thank you.
好的。我很感謝你們提供的所有細節。我會踩線。謝謝。
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Gary Fischer - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Corporate Secretary
Thanks, Richard.
謝謝,理查。
Operator
Operator
Charles Shi, Needham.
查爾斯·施(Charles Shi),尼德漢姆。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon. The question is this. It looks like you're going to see, I think if I heard you right, $4 million to $5 million impact from the new licensing requirement in Q1. Given that you do, you seem to expect 45 days-ish to get the licenses, are those lost sales in Q1? You think you can make it up in Q2? But at the same time, the originally scheduled shipment in Q2, could that be further pushed out into Q3?
嘿。午安.問題是這樣的。如果我沒聽錯的話,看起來您將會看到第一季新的許可要求將帶來 400 萬至 500 萬美元的影響。鑑於您這樣做,您似乎預計需要 45 天左右的時間才能獲得許可證,這些銷售損失是第一季的嗎?您認為您可以在第二季彌補這一缺陷嗎?但同時,原定於第二季出貨的計畫是否會進一步延後到第三季?
I think the essence of this question is, do you think you can get back to let's say $25 million revenue per quarter in Q2 or even run a little bit above that? Because I would think you do need to get back, get the shipment originally scheduled in Q1, out as soon as you can. Any color on Q2 would be helpful. Thank you.
我認為這個問題的本質是,您是否認為您能在第二季將收入恢復到 2500 萬美元甚至略高於這個數字?因為我認為您確實需要回去,盡快發出原定於第一季發貨的貨物。Q2 上的任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Yeah, Charles, my answer to that is, I think these, if we can get the permit, I think delivering our product is no problem. I think if I were the customer with a restriction on, customer probably wants to build some buffer, so they could increase the Q2 delivery, but given that could be temporary. And I think if we have it perfectly developed and none of our customers let's say got barred from getting a license, I would say Q2 and Q3 could be strong quarters.
當然。是的,查爾斯,我的回答是,我認為,如果我們能夠獲得許可,那麼交付我們的產品就沒有問題。我認為,如果我是有限制的客戶,客戶可能希望建立一些緩衝,因此他們可以增加第二季的交付量,但這可能是暫時的。我認為,如果我們能夠完美地開發它,並且我們的客戶都沒有被禁止獲得許可,那麼我會說第二季和第三季可能會是強勁的季度。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Got it. Thanks, Morris. Maybe another question. I think that the opportunity in wireless, you talked about a couple of years ago it's a zero market share, but now you are seeing that could be a very strong potential growth opportunity this year. Might if you talk a little bit more about what's the sizing of that opportunity and what's the shape of that ramp into that opportunity? Is it you expect it more in the second half this year, a little bit more next year? Or give us any quantitative insights, I would really appreciate that. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝,莫里斯。或許還有另一個問題。我認為,幾年前您談到的無線領域的機會是零市場份額,但現在您看到,這可能是今年非常強勁的潛在成長機會。您能否再多談談這個機會的規模以及這個機會的機會形態?您是否預計今年下半年會更多一些,或者明年會更多?或給我們任何定量的見解,我將不勝感激。謝謝。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Charles. I think the HBT market is very well known. I think it's roughly $80 million to $100 million a year. And as we said before, two years ago, we virtually had 0 and now we have about 10%. So our target is to grow another 30% this year.
當然,查爾斯。我認為 HBT 市場非常知名。我認為每年大約是 8,000 萬至 1 億美元。正如我們之前所說,兩年前我們幾乎沒有這個數字,而現在我們這個數字約為 10%。因此我們的目標是今年再成長30%。
And I think if we -- I think the main leverage, I think the message is that we have learned quite a bit of process improvement from our 8-inch experience, leveraging that down to the 6-inch line. And hopefully, our knowledge there will be able to reduce our cost, improve our yield, and with say better connection and working relationship with our customers, we should be able to improve our market share.
我認為,如果我們——我認為主要的槓桿作用,我認為資訊是我們從 8 英寸經驗中學到了很多流程改進,並將其應用到 6 英寸生產線。希望我們在那裡的知識能夠降低我們的成本,提高我們的產量,並且透過與客戶建立更好的聯繫和工作關係,我們應該能夠提高我們的市場份額。
And I think the other opportunity, of course, is the longer term is -- well, I'm hoping that with the AI implication that hopefully that AI smartphones is going to have an increased market turnover in the next year or two. If we can catch that, then we can have HBT market grow even faster.
當然,我認為另一個機會是長期的——我希望藉助人工智慧的意義,希望人工智慧智慧型手機在未來一兩年內能實現市場營業額的增加。如果我們能夠抓住這一點,那麼我們就可以讓 HBT 市場發展得更快。
Charles Shi - Analyst
Charles Shi - Analyst
Thanks, Morris.
謝謝,莫里斯。
Operator
Operator
Tim Savageaux, Northland Capital Markets.
北國資本市場 (Northland Capital Markets) 的 Tim Savageaux 。
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon. Just want to follow up on that answer right there quickly, Morris. Was that a 10% market share target going to 30% in '25? Or -- I just want to make sure I heard you right on where the market share target is for the HBT market.
嘿。午安.莫里斯,我只是想快速跟進這個答案。市佔率目標是從 10% 到 25 年增加到 30% 嗎?或者——我只是想確保我正確聽清了您關於 HBT 市場市場份額目標的說法。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think I was talking about -- well, I mean, 10% to 30% is too much, then we're going to have to triple. I'm talking about we have 10% market, we can increase that 10% by 30%, that will be 13% or 14%, yes.
我想我是在談論——嗯,我的意思是,10% 到 30% 太多了,那麼我們就必須增加三倍。我說的是,我們有 10% 的市場,我們可以將這 10% 提高 30%,那就是 13% 或 14%,是的。
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Okay. Glad I asked that one.
好的。很高興我問了這個問題。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We wish it was the other way, but that's just how it is.
我們希望情況是另外一種樣子,但事實就是如此。
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
That's all right. And you had a strong quarter in indium phosphide, I think the strongest in many quarters, and a strong year. So I guess -- and this is independent of the export restrictions. I think you grew 44%, 45% indium phosphide in calendar '24. And given what we're seeing in the AI optical market in particular, we're hearing about shortages of EML lasers, a lot of uptick in activity on the silicon photonics side.
沒關係。本季磷化銦的表現強勁,我認為是多個季度中表現最強勁的,今年也是強勁的一年。所以我猜測——這與出口限制無關。我認為在 24 年曆中磷化銦的產量增加了 44%、45%。鑑於我們在人工智慧光學市場看到的情況,我們聽說 EML 雷射短缺,矽光子學方面的活動大量增加。
From a market standpoint, would you have expected that growth to accelerate ex any restrictions? Or how would you characterize your outlook for '25 in indium phosphide relative to what you did in '24? Again, excluding the restriction.
從市場角度來看,您是否預期在任何限制下成長都會加速?或者,相對於24年的表現,您如何描述25年磷化銦的前景?再次,排除限制。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think this is a very good question. Actually, this is a topic that Tim and I, my Tim and I, have constant discussion about. We buy market reports, and obviously as a CEO, I expect the market to grow very strongly. But Tim also has responsibility to deliver revenue, so he's tempered my expectation down, so maybe I should have Tim answer that question.
是的。我認為這是一個非常好的問題。實際上,這是我和提姆(我的提姆和我)經常討論的主題。我們購買市場報告,顯然作為首席執行官,我預計市場將強勁成長。但蒂姆也有責任創造收入,所以他降低了我的期望,所以也許我應該讓蒂姆回答這個問題。
Tim?
提姆?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Yeah, sure. This is a very dynamic market at the moment. It is more difficult to try and place a real number on where we go. Right now, as we put our numbers together, we're looking at growth from 2024 to 2025 in the region of 20% range. But of course, as I say, it is a dynamic market.
是的,當然。目前這是一個非常活躍的市場。嘗試為我們去的地方給出一個真實的數字是更加困難的。現在,當我們把這些數字放在一起時,我們預計 2024 年至 2025 年的成長幅度將在 20% 左右。但當然,正如我所說,這是一個充滿活力的市場。
And as silicon photonics and EML gains more adoption, we could very well see some increases there. I'll also make another note as we look at this market. There's a strong development trend in China for EML and silicon photonics as well.
隨著矽光子學和 EML 得到更廣泛的應用,我們很可能會看到一些成長。當我們觀察這個市場時,我還會做另一件事。中國的EML和矽光子學也呈現強勁發展趨勢。
Not only are we seeing this in the normal players, but a lot of the laser detector manufacturers in China that have historically focused on the GPON market are now taking a look at the EML silicon photonics market. They also want to enter into that market.
我們不僅在普通參與者身上看到了這種情況,而且許多過去專注於 GPON 市場的中國雷射探測器製造商現在也開始關注 EML 矽光子市場。他們也想進入那個市場。
So back to it, I've got a 20% year-over-year growth figure in there, but it is dynamic, and we could see additional growth coming up.
回到這個問題,我得到了 20% 的年成長數據,但它是動態的,我們可以看到未來還會有額外的成長。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I agree.
是的,我同意。
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
All right. Got it. And going back to the export restrictions, at least using gallium arsenide as a model, you had a pretty modest downtick after those were announced in Q3 of '23 I think. And bounced back pretty strongly over the next three quarters. I know the question has been asked, but is that -- assuming you're able to in the same fashion secure the permits, is that something we might expect here? Could you see yourself getting back to the strong Q4 levels you just reported in Q2 or Q3?
好的。知道了。回顧出口限制,至少以砷化鎵為模型,我認為在 23 年第三季宣布這些限制後,出口出現了相當溫和的下滑。並在接下來的三個季度中強勁反彈。我知道這個問題已經有人問過了,但是——假設您能夠以同樣的方式獲得許可證,這是我們可以期待的嗎?您能想像自己會在第二季或第三季恢復到剛報告的第四季的強勁水平嗎?
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think so, Tim. Let me put some analysis cap on myself, okay? I think if you look at gallium arsenide versus indium phosphide, in gallium arsenide, honestly, we are the third in the world, and we are the smaller of the three. And our market share is relatively small. But indium phosphide, I believe we are either number one or number two.
我認為是這樣,提姆。讓我給自己戴上一些分析帽,可以嗎?我認為,如果你比較砷化鎵和磷化銦,在砷化鎵方面,老實說,我們是世界第三大廠商,而且我們是三者中規模較小的一家。而且我們的市佔率相對較小。但是磷化銦,我相信我們要嘛是第一,要嘛是第二。
And also, I think gallium -- indium phosphide is not a material which is easily replaceable. We work with our customers sometimes two or three years -- I mean, 18 months to two years to qualify. And we work into very details of what customer wants, how we can deliver. We have the capacity, we have the order actually in hand. Once we get the permit, I believe we can deliver quickly.
而且我認為鎵-磷化銦不是一種容易被取代的材料。我們有時會與客戶合作兩到三年——我的意思是,需要 18 個月到兩年的時間才能獲得資格。我們非常詳細地了解客戶的需求以及我們如何滿足客戶需求。我們有能力,而且我們手頭上已經有訂單。一旦我們獲得許可,我相信我們能夠快速交付。
And I think we can recover from what we have missed and some more as well. But of course, the dynamics is that what's the geopolitical struggle between the two. I think -- I hate to speculate here, but I think given the chance, I think our recovery for indium phosphide is probably going to be better than our recovery from gallium arsenide would have been.
我認為,我們可以彌補所失去的一切,甚至更多。但當然,動態在於兩國之間的地緣政治鬥爭。我認為——我不想在這裡猜測,但我認為如果有機會,我認為我們對磷化銦的回收可能比對砷化鎵的回收更好。
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Tim Savageaux - Analyst
Great. Thanks very much.
偉大的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Dave Kang, B. Riley.
(操作員指示)Dave Kang,B. Riley。
Dave Kang - Analyst
Dave Kang - Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon. First question is regarding germanium. What's the plan here? Are you continuing to run this business? Or any thought of like maybe monetizing?
謝謝。午安.第一個問題是關於鍺的。這裡的計劃是什麼?您會繼續經營這項業務嗎?或有任何關於貨幣化的想法嗎?
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, yeah, germanium, it's a good question. I think there's a lot of the low orbit satellite opportunities in China. Actually, the demand is extremely strong. However, the material, raw material prices went all the way to -- well, this is renminbi, it's almost like $3,500 per kilogram from as low as $1,600 a kilogram, and the raw material was a major part of the cost of goods sold.
嗯,是的,鍺,這是個好問題。我認為中國有很多低軌道衛星機會。事實上,需求非常強勁。然而,原材料價格一路上漲——嗯,這是人民幣,從最低每公斤 1,600 美元漲到了每公斤 3,500 美元,而原材料是銷售成本的主要部分。
We view this not as a growth opportunity for us, but we obviously will start to manage or get into the market once the raw material price gets down to a certain level that we can start to make profit at this market, Dave.
我們認為這對我們來說不是一個成長機會,但一旦原材料價格降到一定水平,我們顯然就會開始管理或進入市場,我們可以開始在這個市場上獲利,戴夫。
Dave Kang - Analyst
Dave Kang - Analyst
Got it. And just wanted to dig in a little bit more on indium phosphide. Is it possible, I'm not sure you have the answer, but since you talked about photo detectors versus silicon photonics, what's the rough mix between those two?
知道了。我只是想更深入地了解磷化銦。有可能嗎? 我不確定您是否有答案,但是既然您談到了光電探測器與矽光子學,那麼這兩者之間的大致組合是什麼?
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It's hard to say the mix. I think the photo detectors, Tim, what was the photodetector revenue we got from the VCSEL? It was around $5 million last year, right?
很難說是混合的。我認為是光電探測器,Tim,我們從 VCSEL 獲得的光電探測器收入是多少?去年大約是 500 萬美元,對嗎?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Yeah. I want to say that it's not quite 50/50. I want to say that we're seeing a little bit more on the laser side of the business. I'm talking the datacenter on the EML and the silicon photonics side. I want to say that we're looking at somewhere in the region of like a 60/40, maybe even a 65/35 split, in favor of laser versus detector.
是的。我想說這並不完全是 50/50。我想說的是,我們在雷射業務方面看到了更多的發展。我談論的是 EML 和矽光子學方面的資料中心。我想說的是,我們正在研究雷射與探測器的比例大約是 60/40,甚至 65/35。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. But on the other hand, I think it's going to be difficult to say what's a detector, what's a laser, right? I mean a lot of the substrate we sell to, they don't tell us what detector or -- I mean, some market for the VCSEL pair, they do tell us it's for detectors. But most of the others, they don't tell us.
是的。但另一方面,我認為很難說什麼是探測器,什麼是激光,對嗎?我的意思是,我們銷售的許多基板,他們都沒有告訴我們是用於什麼探測器,或者 - 我的意思是,有些 VCSEL 對的市場,他們確實告訴我們它是用於探測器的。但大多數情況下,他們不會告訴我們。
Dave Kang - Analyst
Dave Kang - Analyst
Right. For example, your lead customer, I mean are they both photo detector as well as silicon photonics customer, or mainly silicon photonics?
正確的。例如,您的主要客戶,我的意思是他們既是光電探測器客戶又是矽光子學客戶,還是主要是矽光子學客戶?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
That's mainly silicon photonics.
這主要是矽光子學。
Dave Kang - Analyst
Dave Kang - Analyst
Got it. Okay.
知道了。好的。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Our lead customer?
我們的主要客戶?
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Tim Bettles - Vice President, Business Development, Strategic Sales and Marketing
Yeah, that's what we're talking about.
是的,這就是我們正在談論的。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I don't think they even use indium phosphide as a detector in that device, in that transceiver. They're using silicon germanium as a detector.
是的。我認為他們甚至沒有在該設備、該收發器中使用磷化銦作為探測器。他們使用矽鍺作為探測器。
Dave Kang - Analyst
Dave Kang - Analyst
I see. Got it. That was it for me. Thank you.
我懂了。知道了。對我來說就是這樣了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Dr. Morris Young for closing remarks.
我目前沒有其他問題。我想請莫里斯楊博士作最後發言。
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Morris Young - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for participating in our conference call. As always, feel free to contact me, Gary Fischer or Leslie Green if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.
感謝您參加我們的電話會議。像往常一樣,如果您想通話,請隨時與我聯繫、Gary Fischer 或 Leslie Green。我們期待在不久的將來與您交談。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。