使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's Second Quarter 2023 Financial Conference Call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer; and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. My name is Jessica, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)
各位下午好,歡迎參加AXT公司2023年第二季財務電話會議。今天主持會議的是執行長Morris Young博士和財務長Gary Fischer先生。我是今天的接線生Jessica。 (接線生操作說明)
I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT.
現在我將把電話交給 AXT 的投資者關係負責人 Leslie Green。
Leslie Green
Leslie Green
Thank you, Jessica, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company; market conditions and trends, including the expected growth in the markets we serve; emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates; our product mix; our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters to control costs and expenses; to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies; to utilize our manufacturing capacity; the growing environmental, health and safety and chemical industry regulations in China; as well as global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and restrictions.
謝謝傑西卡,大家下午好。在會議開始之前,我想提醒各位,在本次電話會議中,包括對各位提問的回答,我們將提供預測或其他前瞻性陳述,涉及公司未來的財務業績;市場狀況和趨勢,包括我們所服務市場的預期增長;使用我們基板製造的芯片或器件的新興應用;我們的產品組合;我們能否在接下來的幾個季度增加訂單以控製成本和費用;提高生產良率和效率;充分利用我們的生產能力;中國日益嚴格的環境、健康與安全以及化工行業法規;以及全球經濟和政治形勢,包括貿易關稅和限制。
We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. These uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, overall conditions in the markets in which the company competes, global financial conditions and uncertainties, COVID-19 and other outbreaks of contagious disease, potential tariffs and trade restrictions, increased environmental regulations in China, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and the impact of delays by our customers on the timing of sales of their products.
我們謹此提醒您,此類聲明涉及未來事件,基於管理層當前的預期,並受風險和不確定性因素的影響,實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異。這些不確定性和風險包括但不限於:公司所處市場的整體狀況、全球金融狀況及不確定性、新冠肺炎疫情及其他傳染病疫情、潛在的關稅和貿易限制、中國日益嚴格的環境法規、我們部分控股的供應鏈公司的財務業績,以及客戶延遲交貨對其產品銷售時間的影響。
In addition to the factors that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through August 3, 2024.
除了本次電話會議中可能討論的因素外,我們也建議您參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。這些報告可透過我們網站上的連結在線查閱,其中包含可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素的更多資訊。本次電話會議的錄音將在我們網站 axt.com 上保留至 2024 年 8 月 3 日。
Also before we begin, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the second quarter of 2023. This information is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at axt.com.
另外,在正式開始之前,我想說明一點,今天收盤後不久,我們發布了一份新聞稿,公佈了2023年第二季的財務業績。您可以在我們網站axt.com的投資者關係欄位中找到這些資訊。
I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our second quarter 2023 results. Gary?
現在我想把電話交給加里·費雪,讓他回顧我們2023年第二季的業績。加里?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the second quarter of 2023 was $18.6 million, down from $19.4 million in the first quarter of 2023 and down from $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022.
謝謝萊斯利,大家下午好。 2023年第二季營收為1,860萬美元,低於2023年第一季的1,940萬美元,也低於2022年第二季的3,950萬美元。
To break down our revenue in Q2 by product category, indium phosphide came in at $4.6 million, reflecting the expected market softening, particularly in data center, consumer and telecommunications infrastructure. Gallium arsenide was $5.4 million, reflecting a modest improvement across a number of applications, particularly in China. Germanium substrates were $1.0 million. Finally, revenue from our 2 consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q2 was $7.6 million, which is up from the prior quarter.
按產品類別細分第二季營收,磷化銦營收為460萬美元,反映了預期的市場疲軟,尤其是在資料中心、消費性電子和電信基礎設施領域。砷化鎵營收為540萬美元,反映出其在多個應用領域(尤其是在中國)的溫和成長。鍺襯底營收為100萬美元。最後,我們兩家合併原料合資公司第二季的營收為760萬美元,較上一季成長。
In the second quarter of 2023, revenue from Asia Pacific was 75%, Europe was 16% and North America was 9%. The top 5 customers generated approximately 24% of total revenue and no customer was over the 10% level.
2023年第二季度,亞太地區營收佔75%,歐洲佔16%,北美佔9%。前五名客戶貢獻了約24%的總收入,沒有一個客戶的貢獻率超過10%。
Non-GAAP gross margin in the second quarter was 9.8% compared with 26.9% in Q1 and 39.4% in Q2 of 2022. For those who'd prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the second quarter was 9.2% compared with 26.3% in Q1 of 2023 and 39.1% in Q2 of 2022.
第二季非GAAP毛利率為9.8%,而2023年第一季為26.9%,2022年第二季為39.4%。對於那些更喜歡以GAAP準則追蹤業績的人來說,第二季毛利率為9.2%,而2023年第一季為26.3%,2022年第二季為39.1%。
There are 3 key drivers affecting the gross margin. One is total volume. Last year's Q2 revenue was $39.5 million. The second key driver is mix. Last year's Q2 indium phosphide was $15.7 million. This recent quarter, it was $4.6 million, which we believe is the bottom of the decline, by the way. The third key driver was that our raw material business had lower gross margins due to the fact that they were working through higher-priced inventory in Q2. This was especially impactful because raw material sales made up more than 40% of our total revenue.
影響毛利率的關鍵因素有三。一是總銷量。去年第二季總銷量為3,950萬美元。二是產品組合。去年第二季磷化銦的銷售額為1,570萬美元。而本季僅460萬美元,我們認為這已經是跌幅最小的季度了。三是由於原物料業務在第二季需要消化高價庫存,導致毛利率下降。由於原材料銷售額佔總收入的40%以上,因此此影響尤其顯著。
As we look ahead to the coming quarters, we believe we will see improvement in our gross margin as a result of several factors. In the near term, we expect to see improvement in the gross margin contribution from our raw material joint ventures as they have worked through much of their higher-priced inventory. We're also pleased to report that we expect JinMei to begin production in Q3 on our new gallium arsenide recycling program, which like our indium phosphide recycling program, should have a positive impact on gross margin. Further, we believe that indium phosphide revenues have bottomed out and should begin to recover over the coming quarters.
展望未來幾個季度,我們相信在多方面因素的推動下,毛利率將有所改善。短期內,隨著原物料合資企業消化了大部分高價庫存,我們預期其毛利率貢獻將有所提升。此外,我們欣喜地宣布,金美公司預計將於第三季啟動新的砷化鎵回收項目,該項目與磷化銦回收項目一樣,有望對毛利率產生正面影響。同時,我們認為磷化銦的營收已觸底反彈,並將在未來幾季開始回升。
Beyond the near term, we remain confident that we can get back to the mid-30% range as the environment strengthens through higher overall volume, a recovery in indium phosphide mix and the benefits of our recycling programs, along with continued efficiency improvements throughout the business.
展望近期,我們仍然有信心,隨著整體產量增加、磷化銦混合物的恢復以及我們回收計劃的益處,加上整個業務效率的持續提高,環境將得到改善,從而使我們能夠恢復到 30% 左右的水平。
Moving to operating expense. With the reduction in overall revenue, we have continued to take steps to reduce our operating expenses to align with the current environment. Total non-GAAP operating expense in Q2 was only $7.8 million. This compares with $8.7 million in Q1 of 2023 and with $9.1 million in Q2 of 2022. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q2 was $8.6 million, down from $9.5 million in Q1. For comparison, total GAAP operating expense was $10.1 million in Q2 of 2022.
接下來談談營運費用。隨著整體收入的下降,我們持續採取措施降低營運費用,以適應當前的市場環境。第二季非GAAP營運費用總額僅780萬美元,而2023年第一季為870萬美元,2022年第二季為910萬美元。以GAAP準則計算,第二季營運費用總額為860萬美元,低於第一季的950萬美元。相較之下,2022年第二季GAAP營運費用總額為1,010萬美元。
Our non-GAAP operating income for the second quarter of 2023 was a loss of $5.9 million compared with a non-GAAP operating loss in Q1 of $3.5 million and a non-GAAP operating profit of $6.4 million in Q2 of 2022. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the second quarter of 2023 was a loss of $6.8 million compared with an operating loss of $4.4 million in Q1 of 2023 and an operating profit of $5.3 million in Q2 of 2022.
2023年第二季度,我們的非GAAP營業收入為虧損590萬美元,而2022年第一季的非GAAP營業虧損為350萬美元,2022年第二季的非GAAP營業利潤為640萬美元。作為參考,2023年第二季的GAAP營業收入為虧損680萬美元,而2023年第一季的營業虧損為440萬美元,2022年第二季的營業利潤為530萬美元。
Nonoperating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the second quarter of 2023 was a net gain of $1.8 million. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. For Q2 2023, we had a non-GAAP net loss of $4.2 million or $0.10 per share compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $2.4 million or $0.06 per share in the first quarter of 2023.
2023年第二季非經營性其他收入和支出以及其他低於經營活動的項目淨收益為180萬美元。詳情請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿中的損益表。 2023年第二季度,我們錄得非GAAP淨虧損420萬美元,即每股虧損0.10美元,而2023年第一季非GAAP淨虧損為240萬美元,即每股虧損0.06美元。
Non-GAAP net income in Q2 of 2022 was $6.7 million profit or $0.16 per share. On a GAAP basis, net loss in Q2 was $5.1 million or $0.12 per share. By comparison, net loss was $3.3 million or $0.08 per share in the first quarter, and GAAP net income in Q2 of last year was $5.5 million or $0.13 per share. The weighted average basic shares outstanding in Q2 of 2023 was 42.6 million.
2022年第二季非GAAP淨利為670萬美元,合每股0.16美元。以GAAP準則計算,第二季淨虧損為510萬美元,合每股0.12美元。相較之下,第一季淨虧損為330萬美元,合每股0.08美元;去年同期GAAP淨利為550萬美元,合每股0.13美元。 2023年第二季加權平均流通股數為4,260萬股。
Now let's look at the balance sheet, which favored in -- the trends were favorable in several areas. Cash and cash equivalents and investments were $49.6 million as of June 30. By comparison, at March, it was $53.6 million. The reduction in cash was primarily due to a repayment of a bank loan totaling $7.2 million. This was offset by a favorable reduction in our inventory of $4.6 million. As such, several key working capital items trended favorable in Q2.
現在我們來看看資產負債表,該表在多個方面都呈現有利趨勢。截至6月30日,現金及現金等價物及投資為4,960萬美元。相比之下,3月的數字為5360萬美元。現金減少主要是因為償還了一筆720萬美元的銀行貸款。但這被存貨減少460萬美元的有利因素所抵銷。因此,第二季幾個關鍵營運資本項目呈現有利趨勢。
Depreciation and amortization in the second quarter was $1.8 million, and CapEx was $750,000. Our stock comp was $0.9 million. As I mentioned, net inventory came down by $4.6 million to $87.1 million at June 30. 44% of the inventory is raw materials and WIP was 52%. Finished goods makes up approximately only 4% of inventory. We continue to do well on recycling of indium phosphide and believe that this will be an important cost advantage for us as the market recovers.
第二季折舊和攤提費用為180萬美元,資本支出為75萬美元。股權激勵支出為90萬美元。正如我之前提到的,截至6月30日,淨庫存減少了460萬美元,至8,710萬美元。庫存中44%為原料,52%為在製品。成品僅佔庫存的約4%。我們在磷化銦回收方面持續取得良好進展,並相信隨著市場復甦,這將成為我們重要的成本優勢。
Okay, this concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Let me turn to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei, in China on the STAR Market in Shanghai. We are making progress on the approval process with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, known as the CSRC. Shortly after Chinese New Year, we were asked to address 2 primary issues, and we believe are close to a resolution with them. We remain optimistic that we will get CSRC approval in the coming months. We are excited to move into the next phase of the IPO process and believe that Tongmei is an excellent candidate for this listing.
好的,季度財務表現的討論到此結束。接下來,我想談談我們子公司通美在中國上海科創板上市的計畫。我們與證照監會(簡稱證監會)的審批流程進展順利。春節後不久,證監會要求我們解決兩個主要問題,我們相信這些問題已接近解決。我們仍然樂觀地認為,未來幾個月內就能獲得證監會的批准。我們很高興能夠進入IPO流程的下一階段,並相信通美是此次上市的理想選擇。
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?
接下來,我將把電話交給莫里斯·楊博士,請他回顧我們的業務和市場狀況。莫里斯?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Thank you, Gary. Before I go to a review of our business, I wanted to give you an update on China's recent export control regulations. As mentioned in our July 3 press release, the regulations preventing (inaudible) selling materials that are exported out of China. They do not impact the export of indium phosphide products or sales of any products to our customers in China.
謝謝,Gary。在介紹我們業務之前,我想先向您報告中國最近的出口管制規定。正如我們在7月3日的新聞稿中提到的,這些規定禁止(聽不清楚)銷售出口到中國境外的資料。但這些規定不影響磷化銦產品的出口,也不影響我們向中國客戶銷售任何產品。
Since the announcement of the regulations, Tongmei, our subsidiary in China, has moved quickly to prepare permit applications on behalf of customers who may be impacted. The permit process opened for applications on August 1. We have not been given a time frame for the expected length of the permitting process, but we are hopeful that we can resolve it quickly. We have been in close contact with our customers through this time and are working with them to minimize any disruption.
自相關規定公佈以來,我們在中國的子公司通美已迅速行動,代表可能受影響的客戶準備許可證申請。許可證申請流程已於8月1日開放。我們尚未收到審批流程的預計時間,但我們希望能夠盡快解決問題。在此期間,我們一直與客戶保持密切聯繫,並與他們共同努力,盡可能減少任何影響。
Now turning to our business. As expected, our indium phosphide business reached to what we believe is about it, with consumer and data center applications showing the greatest decline. In consumer, we'll be selling into 2 applications, one of which we continue to ship into. The second, a mobile device application is not expected to be designed into the next-generation platform. However, we believe that these applications have validated our indium phosphide as a material of strategic importance in consumer products and validated AXT as a world-class supplier to Tier 1 companies.
現在來說說我們的業務。如預期,我們的磷化銦業務已基本達到我們認為的極限,其中消費品和資料中心應用領域的下滑最為明顯。在消費品領域,我們將繼續向兩個應用領域銷售產品,其中一個領域我們仍在持續供貨。另一個領域是行動裝置應用,預計不會納入下一代平台的設計。然而,我們相信這些應用已經驗證了磷化銦作為消費品領域戰略重要材料的價值,也驗證了AXT作為世界一流一級供應商的地位。
We also believe that there is a significant development work underway for a number of consumer-related devices across multiple customers for use in case of [retina] tracking, health monitoring, LiDAR and more. With our track record of being the dominant commercial supplier for consumer product applications, we are well positioned for current and emerging applications.
我們也相信,目前有多家客戶正在為一系列消費性設備進行重要的研發工作,這些設備可用於視網膜追蹤、健康監測、光達等應用。憑藉我們作為消費產品應用領域領先商業供應商的良好記錄,我們已做好充分準備,迎接當前及新興應用領域的挑戰。
Turning to data center applications. In the first half of 2023, we saw considerable inventory digestion and believe that it is still ongoing. However, if we look beyond the immediate environment, we believe that indium phosphide will play an important role in increasing data throughput and enabling the widespread adoption of AI. Optical interconnects and technologies such as co-packaged optics powered by indium phosphide represent a game-changing approach to meet evolving demand for artificial intelligence workloads.
轉向資料中心應用。 2023年上半年,我們觀察到庫存大幅下降,並且相信這一趨勢仍在持續。然而,放眼更廣闊的市場環境,我們相信磷化銦將在提升資料吞吐量和推動人工智慧的廣泛應用方面發揮重要作用。採用磷化銦技術的光互連和共封裝光學元件等技術,代表著滿足不斷增長的人工智慧工作負載需求的顛覆性解決方案。
For integrating optical interconnects directly into the processes or switch packages, co-packaged optics minimize latency, increase bandwidth and reduce power consumption and enhancing the overall performance of the data center network. As a result, we believe that AI will drive strong industry-wide growth for indium phosphide, likely ramping in 2024 and beyond. Further, with our proven performance in optical devices for the data center, we believe we're in an excellent position to benefit from this growth.
為了將光互連直接整合到製程或交換器封裝中,共封裝光元件可最大限度地降低延遲、提高頻寬並降低功耗,從而提升資料中心網路的整體效能。因此,我們相信人工智慧將推動磷化銦產業強勁成長,並有望在2024年及以後實現規模化發展。此外,憑藉我們在資料中心光元件領域久經考驗的卓越性能,我們相信我們已做好充分準備,從這一成長中獲益。
In telecommunications applications, including passive optical networks, or PON, demand appears to have stabilized around the current level. We're encouraged to see some improvement in China. And if China moves forward with a national stimulus program, as has been discussed, it would likely provide a catalyst for an upgrade cycle in the country's telecommunication infrastructure in 2024 and beyond.
在包括被動光網路(PON)在內的電信應用領域,需求似乎已穩定在目前水準附近。我們很欣喜地看到中國市場出現了一些改善。如果中國如討論的那樣推進國家刺激計劃,這很可能成為推動該國電信基礎設施在2024年及以後升級改造的催化劑。
In gallium arsenide, we saw continued modest improvement in Q2 as key applications such as high-power lasers and IoT devices continued their recovery, particularly in China. As you may recall, gallium arsenide was the first of our material to experience the micro downturn, beginning in Q3 of last year. We're also pleased to report that we are making significant progress with our 8-inch gallium arsenide development program for which micro LED will likely to be the first application. We believe that performance of our material is very competitive in the market and that we will do well in the formal qualification process that is expected to begin in the second half of this year.
在第二季度,隨著高功率雷射和物聯網設備等關鍵應用領域持續復甦,尤其是在中國市場,砷化鎵的業績持續穩定提升。您可能還記得,砷化鎵是我們所有材料中第一個經歷微型LED市場低迷期的材料,該低迷期始於去年第三季。我們也欣喜地報告,我們的8吋砷化鎵開發案取得了顯著進展,微型LED很可能成為其首個應用領域。我們相信,我們的材料性能在市場上極具競爭力,我們將在今年下半年開始的正式認證過程中取得良好成績。
We continue to innovate in our crystal growth process to deliver higher and more consistent yield, and we are excited to apply these learnings to our 6-inch diameter products.
我們不斷創新晶體生長工藝,以實現更高更穩定的產量,我們很高興將這些經驗應用到我們直徑為 6 英寸的產品中。
Turning to our raw material business. Sales increased in the quarter with both increased demand and rising prices. Since relocating to our Kazuo campus, both supply chain companies had been able to increase capacity to meet demand. Regarding the impact of our export license, JinMei exported outside of China represented only a small portion of their sales in Q2, less than 2%. So we do not expect a meaningful direct impact to our revenue of the new regulations. As we move forward, we will have a better understanding of what the direct impact may be, if any. As Gary mentioned, we are pleased to report that our gallium arsenide recycling program will move into production in Q3. This will allow us to drive gross margin improvements and support our ongoing ESG efforts.
接下來談談我們的原料業務。本季銷售額有所成長,這得益於需求增加和價格上漲。自從搬遷到位於和尾的園區後,兩家供應鏈公司都已能夠提高產能以滿足需求。關於出口許可證的影響,金美公司第二季出口到中國以外的銷售額僅佔其總銷售額的一小部分,不到2%。因此,我們預期新規不會對我們的收入產生顯著的直接影響。隨著時間的推移,我們將更清楚地了解其可能產生的直接影響(如果有的話)。正如Gary所提到的,我們很高興地宣布,我們的砷化鎵回收計畫將於第三季投產。這將有助於我們提高毛利率,並支持我們正在進行的ESG(環境、社會和治理)工作。
In closing, though the micro environment will continue to impact growth near term, the trend that we have been driven our revenue and customer expansion remain very much impacted. We continue to excel in our technical capabilities, and we are ready our business to support new applications in AI and consumer products that are likely to drive future growth. Further, we continue to work hard on improving our efficiency, and we are focusing on accelerating our return to profitability.
最後,儘管短期內微觀環境仍將對成長產生影響,但我們賴以推動營收和客戶擴張的趨勢仍受到顯著影響。我們將持續提昇技術能力,並已做好充分準備,支援人工智慧和消費產品領域的新應用,這些應用有望推動未來的成長。此外,我們將繼續努力提高效率,並專注於加速恢復獲利。
I will now turn the call back to Gary for our third quarter guidance. Gary?
現在我將電話轉回加里,請他談談我們第三季的業績展望。加里?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Thank you, Morris. We expect Q3 revenue to be between $16.5 million and $19.5 million. Product mix is likely to include growth in gallium arsenide substrates, but continued weakness in indium phosphide. We expect our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.11 to $0.13, and our GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.12 to $0.15. Share count will be approximately 42.7 million shares.
謝謝莫里斯。我們預計第三季營收將在1,650萬美元至1,950萬美元之間。產品組合方面,砷化鎵基板業務可能成長,但磷化銦業務仍將疲軟。我們預計非GAAP淨虧損將在0.11美元至0.13美元之間,GAAP淨虧損將在0.12美元至0.15美元之間。流通股數量約4270萬股。
This concludes our prepared comments. Morris and I would be glad to answer your questions now. Jessica, operator?
我們的發言到此結束。莫里斯和我很樂意回答各位的問題。接線生是傑西卡嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum.
(操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自理查德·香農與克雷格-哈勒姆的合作。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
I guess the first big-picture obvious question here is trying to understand your guidance in the context of the export licenses. I think you said you're starting to apply, but haven't been awarded yet. And so I'm wondering if you're baking in or you expect any -- or I guess, explicitly taking out any upside or further sales from the rest of the quarter into this guidance. Or just kind of give us some guidance here on how you're thinking about that and constructing that, please.
我想,首先要問的是一個比較宏觀的問題,那就是如何理解您在出口許可證方面的業績指引。您提到您已經開始申請,但尚未獲得批准。所以我想知道,您是否已經將本季度剩餘時間的任何潛在增長或額外銷售額考慮在內,或者說,您是否明確地將這部分增長或額外銷售額計入了業績指引?或者,能否請您就此提供一些指導,說明您是如何考慮和建構業績指引的?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Sure. I think the first reaction we got from -- we started to apply applications actually August 1, which is 2 days ago because China is one day ahead of us. And we got a fairly quick response but we think that more questions to be answered. So -- but -- so we don't know how long the actual process, Richard, will be. So the lower number range assumes that we cannot do any export shipping for the months of August and September. And a higher number, I mean, we can do some shipping in September, the last month of this quarter. That's why the range is large for this quarter.
當然。我們收到的第一份申請——實際上是從8月1日開始的,也就是兩天前,因為中國比我們早一天。我們很快就收到了回复,但我們認為還有更多問題需要解答。所以——但是——我們不知道實際流程需要多長時間,理查德。較低的數字範圍假設我們在8月和9月都無法進行任何出口運輸。而較高的數字,我的意思是,我們可以在9月,也就是本季最後一個月進行一些運輸。這就是為什麼本季的範圍這麼大。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Right. Okay. That certainly makes sense. Maybe just looking at other elements of the guidance here. I think you said gallium arsenide is -- looks to be improving and indium phosphide, we kind of unsure if that means it's going to be flat or slightly down. And I just want to -- also in indium phosphide, I think you declared it to be at the bottom. I'm assuming that would be in the third quarter then. So if you can delineate that, then probably a couple of follow-ups after that.
好的,這很有道理。或許我們可以看看這份指導方針的其他部分。我記得您說過砷化鎵的情況似乎正在好轉,而磷化銦,我們不太確定這意味著它會保持平穩還是略有下降。我還想問一下,關於磷化銦,我記得您說過它已經觸底了。我猜那應該是在第三季。如果您能具體說明一下,之後可能還需要一些後續問題。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes, I think you're right. Because I think as we said, we noticed gallium arsenide was the first product to go into a downturn and indium phosphide actually still had a pretty good shipment even in the first quarter of this year and start to decline about 6 months ago. So we expect that to continue a little bit more. But gallium arsenide, we actually already have seen 2 quarters of improvement, although very, very slight. We hope it will start to accelerate going forward.
是的,我想你是對的。正如我們之前提到的,我們注意到砷化鎵是第一個出現下滑的產品,而磷化銦在今年第一季的出貨量其實還不錯,大約6個月前才開始下降。所以我們預計這種情況還會持續一段時間。但砷化鎵的情況,我們已經看到兩個季度有所改善,儘管幅度非常小。我們希望它未來能夠加速改善。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And I guess maybe just on the topic of indium phosphide bottoming out. I guess I wanted to get your sense of where that confidence comes from. And you're expecting any sort of meaningful bounce off the bottom? Or do you just think it's not going to go any lower?
好的。我想就磷化銦觸底這個話題聊聊。我想了解您信心的來源。您預計觸底後價格會有明顯的反彈嗎?還是您認為它不會再跌了?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Well, because we still have one more quarter to go, so I don't know whether it's going to have a strong bounce or not. But if you listen to the customers, they are not coming back with very large order request at this point yet. But we think some of these -- especially data center customers, there product shipment is almost like only 25% of what we did last year. So we expect that to bounce back towards the fourth quarter, and that should be a meaningful bounce. And of course, I think the [bounce] market in China, I think if there's any stimulus package working to -- given China's economy is very depressed. So if there is any stimulus package towards infrastructure improvement, that should go into some of the optical network improvement in China.
嗯,因為還有一個季度才結束,所以我還不確定市場是否會強勁反彈。但如果你聽聽客戶的回饋,他們目前還沒有提出很大的訂單需求。不過我們認為,尤其是資料中心客戶,他們的產品出貨量只有去年同期的25%左右。所以我們預計第四季會反彈,而且應該會有顯著的回升。當然,我認為中國市場的反彈也取決於是否有任何刺激計畫出台——考慮到中國經濟目前非常低迷。如果有任何旨在改善基礎設施的刺激計劃,那麼資金應該會用於中國光網路的升級改造。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. Let me ask some more questions, I'll jump out of the line and that really goes to the spending here specifically in the OpEx. Gary, you mentioned and it's clear to see a fairly good cut from the first quarter, which is great to see. Wondering to what degree these are sustainable and structural versus onetime in nature. And then how do we think about going forward, specifically in the third quarter?
好的,沒問題。我再問幾個問題,我先插一句,這些問題主要涉及營運支出方面。 Gary,你提到過,而且很明顯,與第一季相比,支出已經大幅削減,這很好。我想知道這些削減在多大程度上是可持續的、結構性的,還是只是一次性的。接下來,我們該如何考慮未來的支出,特別是第三季?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Well, I think it might tick up a little bit in the next quarter, $100,000 or $200,000. But in general, I think it's going to be in this neighborhood through December 31. We haven't done a grounds up going forward after that yet. But -- so I think flat or up a little bit, but I'm very encouraged. It's just I think the team has really pulled together. It's a good illustration of how leadership affects company culture. And Morris is back from China now, but he's been in China for a number of months. And it's easy to make the team there, and the team here is responsive to leadership.
嗯,我覺得下個季度可能會小幅成長,10萬到20萬美元。但總的來說,我認為到12月31日之前應該會在這個範圍內。之後我們還沒有進行全面的調整。所以我覺得可能會持平或略有成長,但我非常鼓舞人心。我覺得團隊真的團結一致了。這很好地體現了領導力如何影響公司文化。莫里斯現在已經從中國回來了,但他在中國待了好幾個月。在中國組建團隊很容易,而這裡的團隊對領導的指示也很積極回應。
So we put the word out that we're tightening up and it's helping. So it's a great illustration of company culture stuff.
所以我們放出風聲,說我們要加強管控,而且效果不錯。這很好地體現了公司文化的重要性。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Let me add one more point. I think we are trying to make ourselves ready for the 8-inch program, although the official ramp in production probably comes in the fourth quarter of 2024. But in preparation for the official ramp, we've got to make some still a few equipment purchase to make it ready for -- because once we got qualified, that process will be frozen and will be ready ourselves for the ramp. So we need to spend a little bit more money for the micro LED program.
我再補充一點。我認為我們正在為8吋LED專案做準備,儘管正式量產可能要等到2024年第四季。但為了迎接正式量產,我們還需要採購一些設備——因為一旦我們獲得認證,整個流程就會固定下來,我們就可以全力投入量產了。所以我們需要在micro LED專案上多投入一些資金。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. I guess I lied here, and I said the -- when I said I was going to be done here since you brought the topic of like early reg. I didn't want to hit on this one here. So it sounds like you're going through a call process. Sorry, Morris. Going through the call process here in the second half, and you gave a very specific time frame of ramping in the fourth quarter of next year. So I guess I want to get a sense of where that specificity comes from. And any sense of scale of this when it does start to ramp up?
好吧。我猜我剛才撒謊了,我說我這就結束,因為你提到了提前註冊的話題。我不想在這裡贅述。所以聽起來你們正在進行電話會議。抱歉,莫里斯。你們在下半年進行電話會議,並且給了一個非常具體的時間表,計劃在明年第四季開始逐步擴大規模。所以我想了解這個具體時間表的依據是什麼。以及,當規模開始擴大時,你們對規模有什麼大致的了解嗎?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes. Although I think I'm happy to see that finally, micro LED is confirmed because I think we -- including myself and the number of analysts really believe there's a lot of obstacles ahead of micro LED, but I think the customers are showing confidence and they're moving ahead. And then we have scheduled qualification going, and we expect it to be finished before the end of the year. And we believe that our position is pretty good at it. As far as the ramp into production is concerned, we do have some number from customers. I would say, it's about $4 million to $5 million next year and could double that by 2025, yes. Although the...
是的。雖然我很高興看到micro LED最終獲得確認,因為我認為我們——包括我自己和許多分析師——都認為micro LED未來仍面臨諸多挑戰,但我認為客戶展現出了信心,並正在積極推進。我們目前正在進行認證工作,預計在年底前完成。我們相信我們在這方面處於有利地位。至於量產方面,我們從客戶那裡得到了一些數據。我認為明年的產量約為400萬至500萬美元,到2025年可能會翻倍。是的,雖然…
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Back to there and think of that.
回到那裡好好想想。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
What?
什麼?
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
I didn't mean to interrupt, Morris, please continue.
莫里斯,我不是故意打斷你的,請繼續。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes, that's assuming that if we can get 50% of the market.
是的,前提是我們能拿到 50% 的市佔率。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham.
你的下一個問題出自石正麗與李約瑟的著作。
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
Just the first question when after -- I mean, over the past 2, 3 years, whenever the U.S. government puts on export restrictions on China, the company's got impacted actually [saw a pop] in the near term to the revenue numbers. But apparently, we're not seeing you are going to have a pop. I was kind of curious why is that the case because I would have thought ahead of the August 1 of that line. Some of the overseas customers outside China may probably wanted to accelerate some shipment, especially given that you have relatively high inventory can turn things around very quickly. Why we're not seeing that part? That's my first question.
第一個問題是,在過去兩三年裡,每當美國政府對中國實施出口限制時,貴公司實際上都會受到影響,短期內營收都會有所成長。但顯然,我們並沒有看到你們的營收出現成長。我很好奇這是為什麼,因為我原本以為在8月1日之前,一些中國以外的海外客戶可能會希望加快發貨速度,尤其是在你們庫存相對較高的情況下,可以迅速週轉。為什麼我們沒有看到這種情況?這是我的第一個問題。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Well, we did. We have a bit increased shipment in July. But there are 2 restrictions on that. One is that the order came in fairly late. We got the notice in July 3, and even we start cranking out a lot of production is still we are limited on how much we can actually produce in the month of July. And the second is that although the official restriction come in July, not until August 1, but China custom actually put sort of the delay tactics on most of the shipment in July already. Okay.
是的,我們確實增加了7月的出貨量。但是有兩個限制因素。一是訂單下達得比較晚。我們7月3日才收到通知,即使我們開始全力生產,7月的實際產量仍然有限。二是雖然官方的限制措施要到8月1日才生效,但中國海關實際上已經在7月對大部分貨物採取了延誤措施。好的。
So we do have, I would say, a good uptick on the shipment in July, and that sort of alleviated some of the missing shipment revenue we can recognize in, let's say, August and part of September. That's why it's a flat quarter. If we're missing our 2 quarter -- 2 months out of the quarter, then you would expect the revenue to be down substantially, but it's not. So it's an effect of we overshipped some in July.
所以,我認為7月份的出貨量確實出現了不錯的成長,這在某種程度上彌補了8月份和9月份部分月份的出貨收入缺口。這就是為什麼本季整體業績持平的原因。如果我們錯過了季度末的兩個月(也就是兩個月),那麼收入應該會大幅下降,但實際情況並非如此。這主要是因為我們7月的出貨量略有超額。
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Another factor, Charles, is that several customers outside of China do operate under a consigned inventory program where we, just to explain people that may not be familiar with the concept, but we ship to them, but we continue to own the inventory on our books until they pull it. And so in a couple of cases, they've got enough to stay in full production with their schedule for August and September, even if we don't ship to them in August and September. So now they could have an issue in October, November, if we're not shipping by then. But by then, we think we will be shipping, so yes.
查爾斯,還有一點要說明,那就是一些中國以外的客戶採用寄售庫存模式。為了避免有人不熟悉這個概念,我簡單解釋一下:我們把貨發給他們,但庫存仍然保留在我們帳面上,直到他們提貨為止。所以,在某些情況下,即使我們在八月和九月不發貨,他們也有足夠的庫存來維持八月和九月的正常生產。但如果到十月或十一月我們還沒出貨,他們可能會遇到問題。不過,我們預計到那時應該可以正常出貨了,所以沒問題。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Charles, you didn't ask this question, but let me try to explain some of the dynamics in this restriction or asking for applications for permit to export. As far as we are concerned, we are a substrate maker. So it's easier, I believe, for us to identify the specific application and specific customer need, and we believe it's more transparent. Whereas our competitor in making gallium arsenide substrate, they need the raw material gallium, which is a bit more difficult because they didn't need to explain who their ultimate customer is and in what portion of that shipment of gallium to those customers are, which I believe -- I think the worst-case scenario, we would have been even in terms of comparing to our competitors. But if there's any tilt towards caution in terms of China's restriction in supplying gallium to the world, then I think we may gain some advantage of shipping more because our permitting process is probably more clear and easier to get than our competition. That's the way I analyze the situation.
查爾斯,雖然你沒問這個問題,但我還是想試著解釋這個限製或出口許可申請流程背後的一些動態。就我們而言,我們是一家基板製造商。因此,我認為我們更容易確定具體的應用和客戶需求,而且流程也更加透明。而我們的競爭對手,也就是砷化鎵基板製造商,他們需要原料鎵,這就有點棘手了,因為他們不需要說明他們的最終客戶是誰,以及鎵的出貨量中有多少是交付給這些客戶的。我認為,即便在最壞的情況下,我們與競爭對手的差距也會很小。但如果中國對全球鎵供應的限制有所緩和,那麼我認為我們可能會在出貨量上獲得一些優勢,因為我們的授權流程可能比競爭對手更清晰、更容易取得。這就是我對這種情況的分析。
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
Morris, actually, that was my second question, but you already answered it.
莫里斯,其實這是我的第二個問題,但你已經回答過了。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush.
你的下一個問題來自 Wedbush 公司的 Matt Bryson。
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
First one is just within indium phosphide kind of normalized, it seemed like normalized revenue run rate before COVID before you added those consumer applications was somewhere between $9 million and $10 million per quarter. I guess now do you have a feel for what normalized revenues might look like when inventories get worked down?
第一個數據僅針對磷化銦業務,大致已進行標準化處理。在新冠疫情爆發前,未計入消費應用領域之前,標準化營收似乎在每季900萬至1,000萬美元之間。我想現在您對庫存減少後標準化營收的大致情況有什麼了解吧?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
You put the number right there. I think it's going to be $9 million or $10 million. I think that normalized the real number I would expect without the increased demand, which I do believe is going to come. Once the first line of increased demand is AI, you need more calculation and more processing. But eventually, the data has to be fed in and taken out. And I believe that's the second wave. That should increase the indium phosphide demand for data center and telecommunications.
你把數字寫在這裡了。我覺得應該是900萬到1000萬美元。我認為這個數字已經接近我預期中實際的價格,沒有考慮需求成長,但我相信需求成長是必然的。一旦人工智慧成為需求成長的第一波浪潮,就需要更多的運算和處理。但最終,數據還是需要輸入和輸出。我認為這就是第二波浪潮。這將增加資料中心和電信領域對磷化銦的需求。
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
And I know you don't have a ton of visibility into kind of how much inventory is beyond you. But any idea at all that you can give us in terms of what inning we're in and seeing that inventory get worked down and in terms of those revenues getting back to normalized levels?
我知道您對庫存量了解有限。但您能否大致估算一下,我們目前處於什麼階段,庫存何時能夠減少,收入何時才能恢復正常水準?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
I think I will put it in the first quarter of next year because I think you would say it normally takes about a year to digest all the inventories. And we did check with the customers. I mean they're still saying Q3 is still not good. But Q4, we really don't have much visibility yet. But I'm quite sure, our customers are happy with us. I mean they just got inventory in their hands, so they need to work that down.
我認為我會把它安排在明年第一季度,因為通常來說,消化所有庫存需要大約一年的時間。我們也和客戶確認過。我的意思是,他們仍然認為第三季的情況不太樂觀。至於第四季度,我們目前還不太清楚。但我很確定,我們的客戶對我們很滿意。畢竟,他們剛剛收到庫存,所以需要時間消化。
And also during a more recessionary kind of period, everybody wants to control their inventory, including ourselves. We want to work down our inventory. So we got customers and we've got customer's customer, everybody wants to work on their inventory. And we are on the bottom of the totem pole. So I think the inventory probably start to -- will hit us more than normal. But I think once they come back, then they should come to us, too.
而且在經濟衰退時期,每個人都想控制庫存,包括我們自己。我們也想降低庫存。所以我們有客戶,也有客戶的客戶,大家都想控制庫存。而我們處於庫存管理的最底層。因此,我認為庫存壓力可能會比平常更大。但我認為一旦市場復甦,他們也會來找我們。
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
From a bigger picture -- go ahead, Matt.
從大局來看——加油,馬特。
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
No, sorry, Gary, after you.
不,不好意思,加里,你先請。
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
I was going to say from a big-picture point of view, one of the unexpected consequences of COVID was that there was a lot of supply chain disruptions in 2021. And so a lot of companies, including us in 2022 bought instead of just in time, we bought just in case. So the overhang is probably more than a normal cyclical thing. It was probably accentuated to be larger than normal because of that. But it's going to work through. And we're seeing it on our own balance sheet, and we're in good communication with the customer. So it's just going to take a bit more time.
我原本想說,從宏觀角度來看,新冠疫情帶來的意想不到的後果之一是2021年供應鏈出現了大量中斷。因此,包括我們公司在內的許多公司在2022年都採取了提前採購的策略,而不是按需採購,而是以防萬一。所以,目前的庫存積壓可能比正常的週期性波動嚴重得多。疫情可能加劇了這種情況。但問題終會解決。我們已經從自身的資產負債表上看到了這一點,並且與客戶保持良好的溝通。所以,這只是需要一些時間。
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Yes. No. Understood there. I guess for you, Gary, in terms of getting back to those mid-30%-type gross margin levels, is there a certain revenue number that we should be thinking about?
是的。不。明白了。我想,Gary,就你而言,要恢復到30%左右的毛利率水平,我們應該考慮一個具體的營收目標嗎?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Well, we probably have to be close to or above $28 million to $32 million, somewhere in that range. But the volume is -- you're asking correctly, Matt, and you know -- I mean I know you know this but the volume is a critical factor but an equally strong variable is the mix. So if the mix is heavily weighted in one direction, meaning probably indium phosphide, then somewhere maybe $28 million, $29 million should be fine. But if it is weak, then it got to be $32 million, $33 million. So they're somewhere in there. But from -- again, what I would say is we're going there. There's no doubt in our mind, and there's some stuff that Morris has been working on while he is in China in the supply chain system and some things that we've done that's going to contribute.
嗯,我們大概得接近或超過2800萬到3200萬美元,就在這個範圍內。但銷售量——你問得對,馬特,我知道——我的意思是,我知道你明白這一點,銷量固然是關鍵因素,但產品組合同樣重要。如果產品組合專注於某一方面,例如磷化銦,那麼2800萬到2900萬美元應該就夠了。但如果專注較弱,那就得達到3200萬到3300萬美元。所以最終結果應該會在這個範圍內。但是——我再說一遍,我們肯定能達到這個目標。我們對此毫不懷疑,莫里斯在中國期間一直在研究供應鏈系統,我們自己也做了一些工作,這些都會有所幫助。
The whole recycling program is pretty new. It's strong with indium phosphide, but now we're just on the threshold of going with gallium arsenide. If that goes the way Morris thinks it's going to go, that's going to help. So we're very optimistic about some of this stuff. We haven't been sitting around sleeping during the slowdown. We've been working hard. So...
整個回收計劃還很新。磷化銦的效果很好,但現在我們正準備開始使用砷化鎵。如果砷化鎵的回收能像莫里斯預想的那樣順利進行,將會很有幫助。所以我們對這方面的進展非常樂觀。經濟放緩期間,我們並沒有閒著,而是一直努力工作。所以…
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research
No, completely understood. I guess that's my last question is that when you're thinking about those mid-30s levels, does that assume that the recycling program in gallium arsenide is as successful as the one in indium phosphide? Or is that offer some potential that you can again get up into the high 30s, 40% range? I guess do you need something else there other than just to lift volumes, get mix back to normal?
不,完全明白了。我的最後一個問題是,當您考慮30%左右的含量時,這是否意味著砷化鎵的回收項目與磷化銦的回收項目一樣成功?或者說,砷化鎵的回收項目還有進步空間,有可能再次達到30%甚至40%的水準?我想,除了提高產量、使混合比例恢復正常之外,您還需要其他什麼措施嗎?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes. I think we probably counted that recycling program in there. We do have quite a few of these program, we assume. And we've been working on it for almost last 1 year, 1.5 years. So I think there's no question in my mind those will work. But I think we did count it. We cannot have...
是的。我想我們可能已經把那個回收項目算進去了。我們確實有不少這樣的項目,我們估計是這樣。而且我們已經為此努力了將近一年到一年半的時間。所以我認為這些項目絕對行得通。但我想我們確實把它算進去了。我們不能…
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
It's factored in. So we're excited about it. So...
我們已經把這一點考慮進去了。所以我們對此感到很興奮。所以…
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum.
你的下一個問題來自理查德·香農和克雷格-哈勒姆的系列。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
A few follow-up questions here. I think I'll throw one of the obligatory one out here on the STAR listing process. I think your prepared remarks are related to a couple of comments you're still responding to. Wondering if you can tell us the nature of those comments and how fast do you think those will be kind of completed. And then any other steps? I think late last year, you thought it would be completed early this year, and we're obviously quite a bit past that point. So I'm sure you feel a little snake bitten about trying to predict things too closely, but I want to get your sense of as an example, do you expect to be done this year or not necessarily?
這裡還有幾個後續問題。我想先問一個關於STAR認證流程的常規問題。您準備的發言似乎與您仍在回复的幾條評論有關。我想請您說明一下這些評論的內容,以及您預計這些流程大概需要多久才能完成。之後還有其他步驟嗎?我記得去年年底您曾表示今年年初就能完成,但現在顯然已經遠遠超過那個時間點了。我知道您現在可能因為預測得太準而感到有些措手不及,但我還是想了解一下您的具體情況,例如,您預計今年一定能完成嗎?
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes. I don't want to overpromise and underdeliver. That's it. I think that's what we're assuming. And because this is a process which is now -- we're now very familiar with it. And we really rely heavily our bankers in China. And we were surprised to see that these 2 little question took so long to get the authorities to be comfortable with our answers. We think we provide really good answers. But as I've been telling my Board that I expect it next week, but don't count on it. But we do -- we only have one question to be answered I think if they're comfortable with it. And then we should go have it go through. Yes.
是的。我不想誇大其詞,最後卻無法兌現。就是這樣。我想這就是我們目前的假設。因為這是一個我們現在已經非常熟悉的流程。而且我們非常依賴我們在中國的銀行家。我們很驚訝地發現,僅僅兩個小問題,就花了這麼長時間才讓監管機構對我們的回答感到滿意。我們認為我們提供了非常好的答案。但我一直告訴董事會,我預計下週會有結果,但不要抱太大希望。不過,我們確實——我認為如果他們滿意的話,我們只需要回答最後一個問題。然後我們就應該繼續推進審批流程。是的。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. And a couple of more quick ones here.
好的,沒問題。再簡單問幾個問題。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Yes. So to answer your question is it could be as quick as next month. But yes, I think so. And if not, definitely towards the end of the quarter.
是的。所以回答你的問題,最快可能下個月就能完成。是的,我想應該是這樣。如果不行,那肯定得等到本季末。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. That was more specific than I was expecting, but good to hear. Let's see, a couple more questions. Gary, on cash flows, obviously, absent any sort of debt dynamics that as what you had in the second quarter here, but what are you expecting for cash flow, you're positive or negative? Obviously, net income will be negative. But then you've been trying to generate cash from inventory. I want to get your sense of what the second half of the year looks like.
好的。這比我預想的要具體得多,很高興聽到這些。嗯,還有幾個問題。 Gary,關於現金流,顯然,假設沒有任何像第二季那樣的債務動態,你對現金流的預期是正還是負?顯然,淨利潤會是負的。但你們一直在努力從庫存中產生現金。我想了解你對下半年的展望。
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Well, yes, we know we start with P&L loss on a non-GAAP basis to take out some of the -- when you take out all the stock comp, take out the depreciation, so the loss on the cash basis is less, which is what happened this quarter, by the way, so for Q2. So I think we will still be able to bring inventory down and work on some of the other working capital accounts on the balance sheet. So if it's a negative cash flow, it will be hopefully similar to what we had this recent quarter.
是的,我們知道,我們首先會按照非GAAP準則計算損益表虧損,以剔除部分因素——比如股權激勵和折舊——這樣以現金為基礎計算的虧損就會減少,順便說一下,這正是本季度(第二季度)的情況。所以我認為我們仍然能夠降低庫存,並改善資產負債表上的其他一些營運資金帳戶。因此,如果出現負現金流,希望情況能與上季類似。
And by the way, take note that if we hadn't paid that bank loan off, which was $7.2 million, cash would have gone up, not down. So because it only went down by $3.6 million -- $3.9 million. So I think we're in that what I would call noise level, and I think we can manage it okay. So -- and then as Morris pointed out, we expect that cash balance is going to change significantly at some point, hopefully, this quarter.
順便提一下,請注意,如果我們沒有償還那筆720萬美元的銀行貸款,現金餘額應該會增加而不是減少。因為現金餘額只減少了360萬到390萬美元。所以我認為我們目前處於所謂的波動範圍內,而且我認為我們可以很好地應對。正如莫里斯指出的那樣,我們預計現金餘額在某個時候會發生顯著變化,希望就在本季。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Is that a reference to the STAR listing, Gary?
加里,你指的是STAR榜嗎?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
A vague and veiled blessing reference.
一種含糊不清、隱晦的祝福暗示。
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Richard Cutts Shannon - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. That's what I figured. Last quick question from me. I'll jump out of the line again. Kind of following up one of the immediately prior questions here regarding gross margins and getting to that 35% level of revenues required for that, which I think you said was centered around $30 million a quarter. What do you think your OpEx would be in that case? I mean you obviously had a nice drop-down here talking about tightening expenses. Are you going to continue to keep those tightened down even as you approach that revenue level or open up a spigot? Or how should we think about that?
好的。我猜也是這樣。我最後一個問題。我再插一句。我接著剛才一個關於毛利率的問題問,也就是達到35%的營收水準(我記得您說過大概是每季3000萬美元左右)。您覺得在這種情況下,營運支出會是多少?您剛才提到了一個關於控製成本的下拉式選單。即使接近那個營收水平,您還會繼續控製成本嗎?還是會加大投入?或者我們該怎麼考慮這個問題?
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Gary L. Fischer - CFO, VP & Corporate Secretary
Well, we're going to have to open it up some. So we shouldn't pretend that we can magically be flat. But we're looking at -- on a GAAP basis, what it looks like for next year and we'll probably get into the maybe $9.3 million to $9.6 million a quarter by the middle of next year. I'm hoping we don't reach $10 million, and I think that we need to try and keep a lid on things to keep it at/or below $10 million a quarter by the end of next year. So...
嗯,我們得稍微放寬一些限制。所以我們不能假裝可以神奇地保持平穩。但我們正在按照GAAP準則來評估明年的情況,預計到明年年中,季度營收可能會達到930萬美元到960萬美元。我希望我們不要達到1000萬美元,我認為我們需要努力控制營收,爭取到明年年底將其保持在1000萬美元或以下。所以…
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your questions. At this time, I will turn the call back over to Dr. Morris Young, CEO, for closing remarks.
謝謝大家的提問。現在,我將把電話轉回給執行長莫里斯·楊博士,請他作總結發言。
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Morris S. Young - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman
Thank you for participating in our conference call. This quarter, we will be presenting at the Needham Virtual Semiconductor Conference, the Jefferies Semiconductor Communication Technology Summit and the Northland Capital Market Institutional Investor Conference. As always, please feel free to contact me, Gary Fischer or Leslie Green directly if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.
感謝您參加本次電話會議。本季度,我們將出席Needham虛擬半導體會議、Jefferies半導體通訊技術高峰會以及Northland Capital Market機構投資者會議。如果您想安排通話,歡迎隨時與我聯絡、Gary Fischer或Leslie Green。我們期待在不久的將來與您交流。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。