American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

My name is Melissa, and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle and Manufacturing first-quarter 2012 earnings conference call.

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions).

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

Christopher Son, Director of Investor Relations, Corporate Communications and Marketing.

Please go ahead, Mr.

Son.

Thank you, Melissa, and good morning to everyone.

I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's first quarter of 2012 earnings call.

Earlier this morning, we released our first-quarter earnings announcement.

You can access this announcement on the aam.com website, or through the PR newswire services.

To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-278-1452, providing the reservation number 69159478.

This replay will be available beginning at noon today through 5 p.m.

Eastern Time May 6.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the matters discussed on this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available on our website.

During the quarter, we will participate in the following conferences -- the KeyBanc 2012 Automotive and Industrial Conference in Boston on May 30 and 31, and the Deutsche Bank Industrial Conference in Chicago on June 13.

In addition, we are always happy to host investors at any of our facilities.

Please feel free to contact me to schedule a visit.

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO, Dick Dauch.

Thank you, Chris, and good morning to everyone.

Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the first quarter of 2012.

Joining me on this call today are David C.

Dauch, our President and Chief Operating Officer; John Bellanti, our Executive Vice President, Worldwide Operations; and Mike Simonte, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

To begin my presentation today, I will provide some highlights of AAM's first quarter of 2012 results.

I will also review the status of AAM's key business initiatives before turning things over to Mike.

After that, we'll open the call up for any questions you ladies and gentlemen may have.

Today, AAM is reporting solid financial results in the first quarter of 2012, with strong sales, growth and higher earnings.

Let me briefly cover three key first-quarter financial highlights.

First, for the first quarter of 2012, AAM sales were approximately $752 million.

On a year-over-year basis, AAM's sales in the quarter were up approximately $106 million.

That is an increase of 16% and AAM's highest sales in a quarter since the year 2007.

Second point, non-GM sales increased approximately 8.5% on a year-over-year basis to $193.6 million.

Our Company continues to achieve significant gains in customer diversification, and we expect non-GM sales to reach 40% or higher by next year, 2013.

Third point, AAM's profitability in the first quarter of 2012 was AAM's highest profitability in a quarter since the year 2004.

Gross profit increased over 31% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, to $139.2 million or 18.5% of sales.

Operating income was $77.4 million or 10.3% of sales, a sequential increase of over 59%.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 20% sequentially to $108.8 million in the first quarter of 2012 or 14.5% of sales.

Net income and earnings per share increased by over 64% on a sequential basis to $51.2 million, and $0.68 per share EPS, respectively.

Let me now take a few comments on the broader auto industry.

The US SAR is currently running at a much stronger pace of approximately 14.5 million units through the first quarter of 2012.

This compares with 13 million unit pace in the same period a year ago, and is substantially higher than AAM's operating breakeven level, which we're controlling at approximately 10 million units.

North American light vehicle production was up approximately 17% in the quarter on the year-over-year basis.

In addition to these improved global industry conditions, we continue to benefit in the quarter from improved capacity utilization and sustained reductions in our fixed cost structure.

Mike will soon cover more details on the first quarter of 2012 financial results, and let me now shift gears at this time and update you on how AAM is driving performance to build value for our many key stakeholders.

First point, AAM is delivering technology leadership.

Our Company's continuing focus on technology innovation with excellent results in keeping our business vibrant.

The addition of new products and ideas which respond to the rising requirements of the global automotive industry is a primary reason for our optimism of our future growth.

As the global OEMs race to meet tighter fuel efficiency and emissions standards, the auto industry is entering a new, advanced phase of innovation and design, and we're at the leading edge.

This encompasses independent drive vehicles, hybrid and electric vehicles, advanced powertrain applications, and other equally sophisticated technologies.

Our Company is meeting these challenges head-on, with an aggressive plan to increase investment in the new technology, including product, process and systems.

The plan is designed to supply the manufacturers with products that address these new and emerging market demands, and therefore, their requirements.

In support of these efforts, AAM's R&D spending in the first quarter of 2012 was a shade over $30 million -- $30.1 million.

This represents an increase of about 10% as compared to the first quarter of 2011.

Our Company is developing many new and innovative products with a focus on the following issues -- enhancing the fuel efficiency of our current products through mass reduction, actual efficiency, advanced metallurgy, packageability, advanced engineering, as well as other related initiatives.

We're also meeting the market demands for lower emissions; more sophisticated electronic controls; improved safety, ride and handling performance; and enhanced reliability and durability.

We're also supporting the rapidly evolving design direction and needs of our customers by focusing on emerging driveline technologies.

This includes advancing electric drive systems for electric and hybrid vehicles, as well as the electric all-wheel drive systems, or as we refer to, e-all-wheel drive.

In this area, we are leveraging our e-AAM driveline systems in Trollhatten, Sweden.

During the first quarter of 2012, AAM acquired full ownership of e-AAM.

Our Company e-AAM was previously a joint venture between AAM and Saab Automobile AB; now, as a wholly-owned entity, AAM now has greater flexibility to support e-AAM's customers without limitations.

e-AAM's E-all-wheel-drive systems are designed to improve the fuel efficiency as compared to conventional all-wheel drive systems by a whopping 30%.

e-AAM's all-wheel drive systems are also designed to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and enhance vehicle stability through the use of proprietary torque vectoring attributes.

In the first quarter of 2012, we completed many successful winter test rides at AAM's recently opened Winter Test Center.

It is located at Colmis Proving Grounds in Arjeplog, Sweden.

This facility is strategically located approximately 60 miles from the Arctic Circle.

It provides an optimal environment for customer collaboration, product validation, and performance demonstration of AAM's latest advanced technologies.

We are currently working with several global OEMs to further develop the engineering requirements for electric drive systems on numerous global vehicle platforms.

We are targeting at least one active purchase order as a result of the activity yet this year.

AAM's technology leadership is also demonstrated by AAM's EcoTrac brand of fuel-efficient and environmental-friendly products.

AAM's EcoTrac high-efficiency axle systems deliver world-class axel performance by implementing proprietary technologies to optimize product design, lubrication efficiency, while also reducing friction.

A key example of this technology is the rear drive module, RDMs, that we're launching now, today in Changshu, China for the Mercedes-Benz C and E class vehicles.

Later this year, we'll be launching our EcoTrac RDMs with front drive units, front and rear drive shafts for the all-new Cadillac ATS.

This new vehicle from GM will have the most efficient axel available in its class.

AAM's EcoTrac brand also includes our innovative disconnecting all-wheel drive system.

This system enables a vehicle manufacturer to offer a fuel-efficient, environmentally-friendly option to provide the safety, ride and handling performance of an all-wheel drive system for passenger car, as will as crossover vehicles.

AAM's EcoTrac disconnecting all-wheel drive system demonstrates AAM's technology leadership.

We'll be the first in the marketplace with a global, non-GM customer.

We're very proud of these new product technologies, and believe this will also be a very important trend in the all-wheel drive systems for the next 10 years or more.

Secondly, AAM is delivering globally.

Our customers are continuously evolving their business to become more globally competitive, more customer-centric, more innovative, and more profitable.

And we're at the leading edge to support them to do that.

Our Company's responding to these market dynamics and will continue to be a key partner in this ongoing process.

Over the last 3 to 4 years, we've established AAM's global footprint.

We now have capabilities to serve every major global automotive market in a regionally cost-competitive way and operationally-flexible manner.

In North America, we base our operations in Three Rivers, Michigan, United States and Guanajuato, Mexico.

In South America, we're based in Araucaria, Brazil; and in Europe, we're based in Swidnica, Poland, as well as Glasgow, Scotland.

In Asia, our strategy involves our focus in three different countries.

First, China.

AAM's operations include our wholly-owned Changshu manufacturing facility, and our joint venture as well in Hefei, China.

In December of 2011, four months ago, we significantly expanded our existing joint venture with an affiliate of the JAC group in Hefei, China by adding our partner's light and medium duty commercial axle business to the Company.

This expanded joint venture will now supply front and rear beam axles to several leading light truck manufacturers in China.

As a result of this joint venture activity, AAM is the second-largest supplier of light commercial truck axles in the entire country of China.

We anticipate this joint venture growing through booked orders to approximately $300 million over the next three years.

Second country, Thailand.

AAM's operations are in production, including this new facility in Rayong, Thailand.

This is our first operation in this critically important global light truck market.

Our first product launch at Rayong manufacturing facility is getting off to an excellent start with a launch of the General Motors new global midsize pickup truck program.

The third country, India.

AAM continually in Asia to support Tata and MNAL with driveline systems from our operations in Pune and Pantnagar.

In addition, we're now launching AAM's newest manufacturing operation down in the Deep Southeast of India and China, in Chennai, for Daimler truck with axles for light and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.

That gets me to my third point.

Our Company is delivering diversification as we said we would, in addition to diversifying our presence in global growth markets.

As well as expanding our product portfolio, we're making major strides in expanding AAM's customer base.

AAM's $1.1 billion new business backlog, launching from 2012 through 2014, is a major driver of this positive change.

Over 75% of awards in our new business backlog are with customers other than the General Motors Company.

In terms of diversification and balance, our focus is on developing similar, mutually beneficial, strong, long-lasting relationships with many other customers.

AAM's $1.1 billion new business backlog includes new business with Volkswagen, Audi, Scania, Chrysler, Fiat, Nissan, Jadjo, Ford, Daimler Truck, Mercedes-Benz, Tata Motors, Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo Powertrain and Mack Truck brand, along with MNAL Mahindra Navistar Automobile Limited.

This is our first production order also with Honda, I'm proud to discuss.

AAM is now working with the best of the best on a total global basis.

It's one of the most important changes and improvements in AAM's business strength in the last five years.

We told you it would occur -- it did; it will.

To further advance our profitable growth and diversification objectives, AAM is currently quoting approximately another $1 billion of potential new business.

Approximately 90% of these quotes represent opportunities with customers other than GM.

My last item, AAM is delivering solid profitability.

AAM's improved financial performance is a critical element of our plans to reduce leverage, strengthen the balance sheet, and increase stockholder value.

We're on track to achieve these objectives and improve our financial strength.

Our first-quarter 2012 results in the 11th consecutive quarter of profitability for AAM, the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales growth.

Over the course of these past 11 quarters, we have made steady progress to our goal of returning to investment-grade credit metrics by 2013.

During this time, we have consistently achieved profitability at the upper end of our long-term EBITDA guidance range of 12% to 15%.

Before I turn it over to Mike, let me wrap up by making a few closing remarks about AAM's 2012 outlook.

AAM's 2012 outlook is based on the assumption that these -- that the US light vehicle sales will be in a range of 13.5 million to 14 million units.

Others are much more bullish; this is our plan.

The upper half of that range is more probable at this point in time.

Based on the industry sales assumption and the anticipated launch timing of AAM's new business backlog, we expect AAM's full-year 2012 sales topline revenue to range between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion, probably closer to the $2.9 billion.

In terms of profitability, we continue to expect AAM's adjusted EBITDA margins to range from 14% to 14.5% of sales in 2012.

Let me emphasize that AAM's top priority right now is to make effective preparations for the many global product launches we scheduled later this year, and continuing through the year 2013.

During this two-year period, we will launch approximately $750 million of new business.

AAM's plan to build value for our many key stakeholders is very simple.

There are three points.

First, AAM is growing faster than the industry.

Our topline growth is projected to be in excess of 11% over the next three years as we launch the new business backlog, where the industry projections are around 6% to 7%.

Second point, AAM is also making great progress on achieving business diversification.

We're on track, as I said, to improve our non-GM sales concentration to about 40% of sales by 2013.

We are now turning our attention to a target we have set for calendar year 2015 to achieve an equal 50/50 balance of sales, non-GM or with GM.

Third point, we are rapidly strengthening AAM's balance sheet.

We're successfully executing the plan, and we're confident AAM's best days are all ahead of us.

That concludes my comments, ladies and gentlemen, this morning.

I thank you for your attention.

I thank you for your interest and support to AAM.

Let me now turn this call over to our Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Simonte.

Mike?

Thank you, Dick, and good morning, everybody.

Now, Dick already covered the highlights on this quarter, our first quarter of 2012, so I'll go right into the details, starting with sales.

Net sales in the first quarter of 2012 increased 16.4% to approximately $751.5 million as compared to $646 million in the first quarter of 2011.

This increase of 16.4% on a year-over-year basis was higher than the 13% increase in US light vehicle sales, or the SAR, and approximately the same as the year-over-year growth in North American light vehicle sales.

On a sequential basis, AAM's sales in the first quarter of 2012 were up $146 million.

That's a 24% gain, as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011.

Three major factors account for this increase.

The first is seasonality.

In the first quarter of 2012, there were seven more straight-time production days in the US than as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011.

This is a typical seasonal trend, and of course, that benefited our sales in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter.

The second issue is a widely reported and expected increase in the GMT 900 production volumes.

In the first quarter of 2012, GM produced approximately 290,000 vehicles in this program.

This compares to 226,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The third and final issue is the launch of new business in 2012.

For example, in the first quarter of 2012, AAM supported production of 23,000 vehicle units in GM's global pickup program, known as the GMI700, and we did this in Araucaria, Brazil and Rayong, Thailand.

This compares to only 3,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.

This launch and others drove a nearly $30 million increase in our sales outside of North America on a year-over-year basis.

And as Dick mentioned, keep in mind, that over the next three years, we expect to launch $500 million of new business in Brazil, China, India, and Thailand.

This is a very positive development in terms of our business diversification, rapidly improving in these areas.

In the first quarter of 2012, our non-GM sales increased by approximately 9% on a year-over-year basis, to $194 million.

As a percentage of sales, and as adjusted for the impact of our Hefei, China joint venture, our non-GM sales were approximately 30% of total sales in the first quarter of 2012.

And if the GMT 900 program, when at quote/unquote "normal levels," which we estimate to be approximately 260,000 units, we would have expected our non-GM sales to be about 33% of total sales, and that's right in line with where we ended 2011.

As we work our way through this calendar year 2012, and launch new business with Mercedes and Daimler and Volvo and Mack and MNAL later this year, you'll see that trend continue to improve.

All right, so our content per vehicle in the first quarter of 2012 is $1475.

This was relatively flat as compared to the first quarter of 2011.

And remember that our content per vehicle is measured as the sales value of the products we deliver for our major North American light truck programs.

This is consistent and comparable to the disclosures we've made over time.

Okay, let's now move on to our profitability, which was solidly improved on a year-over-year basis.

Gross profit was up $23.8 million, or 21%, to $139.2 million.

Gross margin was 18.5% of sales.

EBIT was up $16.3 million, or 27%, to $77.4 million.

Our EBIT margin was 10.3% of sales.

Net income in the quarter increased $13.5 million.

That's a 36% increase, to $51.2 million.

Our net margin was 6.8% of sales.

And diluted EPS was 68% -- I'm sorry, $0.68 per share.

Our GAAP-derived EBITDA was $114.1 million, or 15.2% of sales in the first quarter of 2012.

These GAAP results in our first quarter of 2012 included the net favorable impact of special items relating to the closure of our Detroit manufacturing complex and Cheektowaga manufacturing facility.

These amounts included a $21.8 million post-retirement benefit for impairment gain, and a $16.5 million net special charge and restructuring cost hit that we incurred in this quarter.

Excluding the impact of these special items, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2012 was $108.8 million or 14.5% of sales.

This was in line with the top end of our annual profit guidance range for the year, a very good step for our Company in 2012.

Now let me anticipate some questions about our sequential profit performance.

As compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, our sequential operating income and EBITDA profit margins were approximately 12% and 13%, respectively.

While this is short of our 25% target for incremental contribution margins, we expected this to be true in 2012, and communicated that expectation to you very clearly in our profit guidance.

The primary issue affecting the comparability of our profit margins in 2012, as compared to 2011, is material cost inflation.

As we have previously said, this issue is adversely affecting our profit margins in 2012.

Combined with freight cost inflation, this cost headwind represents approximately 100 basis points, up -- maybe up to $35 million of adverse margin impact, in 2012.

The impact of this year-over-year cost driver is greater earlier in the year.

This is true because we started to incur these material cost pressures in the second half of 2011.

A second issue affecting the comparability of our profit margins in 2012 versus 2011 is the recognition of deferred revenue under the 2008 AAM-GM agreement.

The 2008 AAM-GM agreement resulted in GM providing our Company a total of $213 million of financial support to fund buyouts and buydowns related to the transition of UAW representative legacy labor at AAM's original locations.

Under GAAP, these payments have been recognized as revenue by AAM under the term of the collective bargaining agreement covering these locations.

This labor contract, as I'm sure you know, expired on February 25 of 2012.

As a result, our revenue recognition for this agreement also terminated in February of 2012.

The net impact of the cessation of the deferred revenue recognition related to this agreement is estimated to be a reduction in sales revenue of approximately $48 million, and a net adverse profit impact of approximately $35 million for the full-year 2012.

And of course this is as compared to the full-year 2011.

Now in the first quarter of 2012, because this issue really only changed for the month of March, the net impact was a reduction in sales of approximately $5 million -- $4.7 million to be exact -- and a net adverse profit impact of approximately $3.2 million.

The final issue I will cover with you today, that affects the comparability of our profit margins in the first quarter of 2012 as compared to the prior year, is foreign exchange.

In the Other Income line item in our financial statements, we recognize the impact of two activities primarily.

Number one, the profits from our unconsolidated joint venture in Hefei, China.

And number two, foreign currency gains and losses.

In the first quarter of 2012, we're very pleased to tell you that we recorded a gain of approximately $900,000 relating to our share of the earnings in our unconsolidated joint venture in Hefei, China.

That's a very nice return on our investment.

Offsetting this equity income was $2.1 million of foreign currency losses, principally related to the remeasurement of Mexico peso-based assets and liabilities on our US dollar functional operations in North America.

In the first quarter of 2011, this activity resulted in a $500,000 gain.

We suspect this foreign exchange activity, which, of course, is not easy to predict, was not considered by the analyst community in establishing us for our first-quarter 2012 earnings.

Now before reviewing our cash flow results, let me quickly cover our SG&A, interest and taxes.

In the first quarter of 2012, SG&A -- of course, this includes R&D -- was approximately $61.8 million, or 8.2% of sales.

This compares to 8.8% of sales for SG&A in the first quarter of 2011, and 9.4% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Now higher R&D spending was the single largest driver of our increased SG&A spending on a nominal basis in the first quarter of 2012 as compared to the prior year.

AAM's R&D spending in the first quarter of 2012 increased approximately $3 million on a year-over-year basis, to $30.1 million.

On a percentage basis, this was an 11% increase on a year-over-year basis, which is approximately the same as the increase we expect in our full-year 2012 sales.

As compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 -- I'm sorry, '11 -- AAM's R&D spending was up approximately $2 million on a sequential basis.

Similar to the third quarter of 2011, the timing of certain customer validation and prototype requirements drove our R&D spending in this quarter, the first quarter of 2012, to be higher than the average quarterly trend for the past five calendar quarters.

We currently expect AAM's R&D spending rate, on a quarterly basis, to track very closely to this trend rate -- what I'm speaking to is the trend for the last four or five quarters -- for the rest of 2012.

This would be in the range of approximately $28 million to $29 million per quarter.

Okay, interest expense in the first quarter of 2012 was $24 million.

This was up approximately $3 million on a year-over-year basis.

As you recall, we issued $200 million of 7.75% notes in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Our quarterly run rate of interest expense increased to approximately $24 million as a result of this additional borrowing.

And finally, taxes.

AAM's effective tax rate was approximately 4.3% in the first quarter of 2012.

The tax provision was $2.2 million.

It was a relatively clean quarter from a tax perspective, more or less in line with our previous guidance, and no significant adjustments to report.

So that's all I really have to say about taxes.

If you have any further questions, please ask in the Q&A period.

Okay, let's move on to cash flow.

The first thing I want to say about cash flow is that our first-quarter results were very similar to what we expected and budgeted for this quarter.

In fact, we believe that AAM is now at a turning point as it relates to free cash flow generation.

Over the next few minutes, I will explain what happened in this first quarter, and keep in mind that our sequential sales growth was 24% in the quarter.

That was a huge issue in terms of cash flow for this one single quarter.

And I'll also explain why we are not at all concerned about it.

This first quarter of 2012 cash flow result is one of those quote/unquote "high-class problems" fast-growing, profitable companies experience on the upswing.

We define free cash flow to be net cash provided by, or used in, operating activities, less capital expenditures.

And, of course, our CapEx is showing net proceeds received from the sale of equipment.

GAAP cash used in operating activities in the first quarter of 2012 was $71.5 million.

Now in our press release, we show a condensed consolidated cash flow statement; we show an other operating activity use of cash of $158 million.

What I want to do here now is give you some of the key elements of that condensed result.

Okay, so again, $158 million of use of cash reported as Other in our press release.

Here are the major elements.

Accounts receivable grew to just over $500 million and represented $166 million use of cash in this quarter.

This was offset by a growth in our accounts payable to the tune of approximately $100 million.

So the net of Accounts Receivable and Accounts Payable would be use of cash of approximately $166 million.

Inventories represented a $25 million use of cash.

The curtailment gain, approximately $22 million in the quarter, was a reconciliation of $22 million shown in that line item -- reconciliation, of course, of our net income to our cash provided by operating activities, or in this case, used in operating activities.

Deferred revenue was a $13 million reconciling items in that cash flow statement.

And finally, other items, principally accrued compensation, and we do pay our incentive compensation once a year in the first quarter.

So this drove the use of cash, again, $25 million in the quarter.

These are the primary elements of the $158 million use of cash in this first quarter of 2012, reported as other in our press release.

So hopefully, that will help you, and I'm anticipating some questions as I tell you that.

Okay, so let's go back to our reconciliation of free cash flow.

GAAP cash used in operating activities, $71.5 million.

Capital spending, net proceeds from sales of equipment, was approximately $44 million in this quarter.

Reflecting the impact of this operating activity in CapEx, our free cash flow in the first quarter of 2012 was a use of approximately $115.1 million.

Now it's not unusual for an automotive supplier to use cash in the first quarter.

Seasonal holding capital trends often drive this type of result.

For AAM, this trend is currently exacerbated by a heavy concentration of interest payments in the first and third quarter of every year.

That's approximately $35 million.

The first quarter is further impacted by the fact that our annual incentive compensation is paid in March every year, I just mentioned that, and that's about $25 million.

However, this quarter was even more unusual for AAM, due to that 24% sequential increase in sales we experienced.

This drove a significant increase in working capital.

Let me walk you through the bigger issues from a cash flow perspective, starting with inventories.

Inventories were up to $203 million in March 31, 2012 from $177 million at 2011 year-end.

This is a 15% increase.

And that, of course, compares to the sales increase of 24% we incurred in this quarter.

In fact, if you just compare ourselves in March of 2012 to December of 2011, the last month in each quarter, the increase was even higher -- almost 65%.

I mention these comparisons because we are currently supporting much higher levels of business activity than we did in 2011 in the fourth quarter, and we need more inventory in the system to do that.

As we work through the rest of 2012 and complete the transition of the work previously sourced to the now-closed Detroit and Cheektowaga facilities, we expect to reduce inventories to the same levels, or probably below, the levels that we carried at 2011 year-end.

Reducing inventories will be a major focus for us for the rest of 2012.

Let me also comment on receivables.

The first thing I want to say about receivables, that our past due balances are in line with year-end.

So that's the future.

There was no problem with the quality of our receivables, nor are we shipping any more product to our customers than what they specifically order to support their current production plan.

The primary driver for the increase in our receivables in the first quarter of 2012 is the increase in our sales.

In the months of February and March of 2012, AAM's sales exceeded $530 million.

At quarter-end, our accounts receivables were $501 million.

That's an increase of $168 million as compared to 2011 year-end.

And I mentioned already, but I'll say it quickly again, almost $100 million of this Accounts Receivable working capital bill was offset by higher supplier payables.

And this, of course, also reflects higher levels of activity.

Aside from this increased business activity, there's one other issue that accounted for a portion of the sequential increase in Accounts Receivables in the first quarter of 2012 as compared to year-end 2011.

In the first quarter of 2012, GM changed the administration of our payment terms.

Now as you recall in the second half of last year, we transitioned from accelerated net [10-day] terms to GM's standard terms of net [47] paid weekly.

This occurred in the third quarter of 2011.

The change in 2012 relates to the measurement of the payment date under this net [47] paid weekly protocol.

GM is now starting the clock on these payment terms when our products are received in their facilities.

We refer to this as Pay On Receipt.

Previously, the clock started when title transferred at our dock -- which, by the way, is not changed; title still transfers to General Motors at our dock.

But the changes that the clock, in terms of determining the day in which we will be paid for a shipment, has now been changed to when these shipments are received by General Motors.

This additional change to Pay On Receipt terms by GM is adding approximately one week of float in our receivable balances, beginning in 2012.

Based on current and expected shipping levels, AAM remote logistics selected by GM for our shipments, we estimate the impact of this change to be up to $40 million in the first half of 2012.

We expect this to increase the total working capital impact of transitioning to GM's standard payable terms -- or, yes, payment terms -- to $230 million, approximately $190 million of which we incurred and recorded in 2011.

This issue accounted for a use of cash of approximately $16 million in the first quarter of 2012.

So there will be some overhang in the second quarter of 2012, and then it will be behind us after that.

The good news in all this working capital discussion is that most of this cash flow is behind us.

We have climbed a steep working capital mountain over the past three quarters, and now we are poised to generate significant amounts of positive free cash flow in the remaining three quarters of 2012 and beyond this year, into 2013, '14 and '15.

In fact, just as we experienced an unusually high seasonal use of cash in operations in the first quarter of 2012, we are anticipating a very strong seasonal source of cash from operations in the second half of 2012.

Okay, let me close my comments by covering a couple of quick hitters on the balance sheet.

As Dick said, we're making steady progress toward regaining investment-grade credit metrics by 2013 -- one of the most significant priorities for our Company.

AAM's adjusted net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio was 2.84 times at the first quarter of 2012.

Our goal for this metric is to be below 2 times in 2013.

AAM's adjusted EBIT interest coverage was 3 times at March 31 in 2012.

On an annualized basis, this was approximately 3.25 times in the first quarter of 2012.

Our goal, to be above 3 times by 2013 -- we're there.

And we're going to stay there.

Net debt to market capitalization was approximately 56% at March 31, 2012.

Our goal is to maintain this ratio below 40%.

So the last thing I'm going to say relates to our 2012 outlook.

Dick already covered the basics in terms of our outlook, our sales guidance and our profit guidance.

So let me just say this -- we're not going to revise our outlook today, because we did not lowball you with this guidance a couple of months ago.

We are pleased with it and proud of our guidance for the year.

Sales are trending above 10% growth and our adjusted EBITDA is going to trend over $400 million.

We're focused on accelerating AAM's business diversification by successfully launching new business with new customers in new markets.

All while continuing to build our new business backlog, we've got a substantial amount of new business quotes and we're very competitive in those quotes.

We're committed to building momentum in our driveline technology leadership position by continuing to develop and launch innovative new product process and systems technology.

Dick covered much of that with you today.

Our focus is on delivering these commitments and more to our stockholders and other key stakeholders, we're well on our way in this first quarter.

Over the past couple of months, we have fielded numerous questions about the macro environment; principally the impact of higher fuel prices on US light vehicle sales, truck mix, the GMT900 program, and ultimately, our P&L.

Let me emphasize a few key points to summarize our outlook.

Number one, we are not concerned about GMT900 dealer inventory levels.

In fact, we expect them to move a little bit higher in the second quarter, before seasonal fluctuations swing back in the second half of the year.

GM has explained how and why they plan to build ahead this year to facilitate the downtime required to prepare for the K2XX, GMT's successor program for the GMT900.

In addition, there are more production days in the first half of the year, and truck sales and truck mix are typically much stronger in the second half of the year than the first half.

We see no reason why that would not be the case this year.

Number two, we are not concerned about quote/unquote "weak" truck sales in the first quarter of 2012.

On a global basis, we estimate that GM sold approximately the same number of GMT900 vehicles in the first quarter of 2012 as in the first quarter of 2011.

That's what we expected this year -- for GMT900 sales and production to be approximately flat with the prior year.

From our perspective, it looks like GM's on track to do exactly that.

Number three, we're not concerned about quote/unquote "weak" truck mix in the first quarter of 2012.

The percentage of the US SAR, represented by full-size pickups and SUVs, which we refer to as truck mix, was approximately 12.7% in the first quarter of 2012.

This was down a bit as compared to 13.2% in the first quarter of 2011.

However, we believe this is a function of strong car sales as opposed to weak truck sales.

Again, all we expected, and all we need to achieve our plan this year, is flattish GMT900 sales and production.

With the SAR up and mix down just a bit, that's exactly what's happening.

And finally, number four, we are not concerned about the competitiveness of the GMT900 vehicles and their final model year of sales.

First of all, many of these GMT900 model variations are still very competitive in the marketplace.

The heavy-duty pickups are the newest trucks in their class.

The full-size SUVs are commanding a US market share approaching 60% -- six zero.

And of course, they account for a significant number of export sales.

Only the light-duty pickups are lagging their peers in terms of product modernity, and the relatively small gap will be cured quickly with the launch of the new trucks in early 2013.

The bottom line is that we are growing more confident, not less confident, in our 2012 outlook, as the result of the sales and production trends we have observed so far this year.

Okay, that's it.

That's the end of my comments.

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today.

I'm ready to turn it over to Chris for the Q&A.

Great.

Thank you, Mike, and thank you, Dick.

We've reserved some time to take some questions.

I would ask that you try to please limit your questions to no more than two.

So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

(Operator Instructions).

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

This is Dan Gauss in for Rod.

Just wanted to ask about the cadence of GMT900 production.

I think you had talked about 290,000 in the first quarter.

And I think you've made some comments in the past that it would move to 240,000 per quarter in the last three, which would get you to about flat year-over-year.

When I take away the 50,000 units sequentially, we're having trouble getting to your guidance for the year.

Are there parts of the business that should see sequential improvements through the course of 2012, that will offset lower profitability from the T900 versus Q1?

Yes, so, Dan, so I understand your question.

Are you speaking to our guidance for profit margins?

Basically, on revenue and the implications for EBITDA, based on your revenue and the margin guidance.

Okay.

Well, the -- we do see this cadence in GMT900 production ramping down a little bit.

But keep in mind that we're launching approximately $350 million of new business this year.

That got started in the first quarter with a strong launch on the GMI700 products in Araucaria, Brazil, in Rayong, Thailand.

As we work our way through the rest of this calendar year, we're going to be ramping up with Mercedes in China.

We're going to be launching with Mack, additional models here in North America.

We're launching with Daimler Truck in India, and our other GM programs that are launching second, third and fourth quarter as well.

And so, we've got a very strong expectation this year for our sales through the rest of the year.

The other thing to keep in mind is that while the GMT900 may be ramping down just a little bit, to work through the rest of this year, the Dodge Ram heavy duty series pickup truck program is expected to be very strong, and GM's full-size vans should have good year-over-year growth as well and production.

And so these are providing some support, Dan, to our business as we work through the rest of the year.

Okay, thanks.

Could you give us your current expectation for the year-over-year revenue tailwind from new business backlog in 2012?

And what it was in Q1?

And then I just wanted to ask about the material cost and freight projection of $35 million year-over-year.

How does that compare to when you first gave guidance this year?

Okay, I'm not sure I understand your first question.

I'll answer it this way -- you're asking for revenue tailwind from our new business backlog.

It's about $350 million for the year.

The first quarter was pretty strong quarter of launch, relative to the GMI700 program, but many of the other programs are going to be coming later in the year.

So we're probably closer to 20% of that total, maybe a little less than that, in the first quarter, and of course, a little greater than that run rate as we work through the rest of the year.

As to the second part of the question, the material cost inflation, the net material cost inflation, is trending a little higher than what we had anticipated 3 to 6 months ago; but keep in mind that the number we're disclosing today is the combination -- and this is the way we look at it internally, so we thought it'd make sense to share it this way externally as well -- it's the combination of material and freight cost inflation.

We're seeing some growth in either.

So the majority of the increase and this cost driver that we're discussing today, or a significant portion anyway, deals with the freight cost inflation.

And we are seeing some modest increase in our expectation from material cost inflation, as compared to where we were 3 to 6 months ago.

Okay, thanks, Mike.

Very clear.

I appreciate it.

John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Just a follow-up -- I apologize, Mike, on this material and freight cost inflation.

I just want to make sure I've got my thought process here straight.

You talked about a 100 basis point hit year-over-year, or weight year-over-year from '12 versus '11, and then $35 million of headwind on an absolute basis.

I'm just curious, how much of that was in the first quarter?

And how much of that will we see hit in the second, third and fourth?

I'm just trying to understand the dispersion or the cadence through the course of the year.

Yes, John, and I mentioned, although we covered a lot here in our comments, we emphasized something here.

The impact is greater in the first quarter of 2012 because we started to experience some of these material cost inflation pressures in the second half of 2011.

So of the roughly $35 million in total material and freight cost inflation, we see about -- not quite one-third but maybe 30% of that impacting our earnings in the first quarter of 2012.

So the impact would be lesser, particularly in the second half of the year, as we work through the rest of this year.

So as we're looking at this 14.5% adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter, you are actually getting a bigger hit from that in the first quarter.

That should ease.

I mean, it just seems like -- obviously, the GMT900 slows down a bit, but I mean, it seems like you're really outperforming your expectation on the EBITDA margins in the first quarter.

Is that a correct characterization?

That's exactly the way we are looking at it from a budget management and internal management perspective.

We got hit with a little bit higher material cost inflation; we knew about some of the other issues, such as the fact that we operate well above our contractual capacity levels, and that we would have to do that using some premium labor costs in our own system.

Some of our suppliers needed some premium freight and logistics arrangements in order to meet this very high demand, this bubble, if you will, the first quarter of 2012.

And we knew that we were going to have the reduction in revenue associated with the recognition of that deferred revenue with General Motors.

So, yes, we overcame a bigger issue of material cost inflation, and we feel pretty good about what we did here in this first quarter.

And we expect to continue throughout the rest of this year.

That's very helpful.

Then just a second question.

The GM payment terms changes that occurred, I'm just curious how much of a surprise those were to you?

Because it sounds like that's a new development.

I'm just curious if GM is trying to take any other actions on payable extensions or anything else on pricedowns or anything like that, in your business arrangement with them that would be incrementally sort of more negative, going forward?

Because it sounds like they've gotten a little bit more aggressive.

No, John, I wouldn't read it that way.

This is an administration of a quote/unquote "GM standard payment term." John, I'll tell you that we have the same Pay On Receipt language in the purchase orders we let to our suppliers.

In 2011 and prior periods, GM had administered this term according to the Pay On Shipment arrangement.

They've adjusted their systems and their procedures in 2012.

And our understanding is that they're doing this with other suppliers as well, to simply adjust to the Pay On Receipt terms, which have has been in the purchase orders for some time.

So on this -- we do not view this as an AAM-specific issue, nor do we think you should be concerned about this having bleed across to other aspects of our commercial relationship.

That's incredibly helpful.

And then just one last one.

On the $1 billion of new business that you guys are quoting on, it sounds like a lot of that's non-GM.

So, just curious if you can sort of highlight really what regions that new business you're quoting on is in?

What the time frame of that rolling on (technical difficulty), and sort of your historic win rate, as you're quoting on business like this.

Yes, John, David Dauch here.

As you said, we're quoting over $1 billion.

Really, it's spread across all the various regions of the world.

We've got opportunities here in the Americas; we have plenty of opportunities in Europe, and vast opportunities in Asia corridor.

So we think we can land business in all of those regions based on what we're actively quoted at this point in time.

And to address your last part of that question, our typical hit rate is in that 25% to 30% range.

I'm sorry, and the time frame -- is there stuff that's 3 to 5 years out or next two years?

Just curious (multiple speakers) of that sort of time frame.

No, some of the foraging things, John, that we're working on are probably the next 2 to 3 years; mostly the driveline things that we're talking about are '14 and beyond, mainly '15 and beyond.

Thank you very much.

Very helpful.

Thanks, guys.

Itay Michaeli, Citi.

Hello, Itay?

You know what, Melissa, let's move on to the next one and if -- we'll try to get back with Itay.

Chris Ceraso, Credit Suisse.

Okay, so, just a couple of things here.

I think you've covered a lot of it.

Going back to your discussion about working capital, Mike, which was helpful.

You may have mentioned this already, but you should get some release from working capital just as the truck production comes down in Q2 anyway, right?

Any magnitude you want to put on that?

Yes, Chris, we will get some release of working capital in the second quarter.

What I would tell you is that right now, our second-quarter sales are trending very strongly.

So we wouldn't -- we expect more of that working capital released to effect our second-half of the year cash flow results.

But we do see the sales in the months of May and June trending $15 million or so less than the months of February and March.

So at the baseline, we should expect some working capital release.

But again, I think as we work our way through the third quarter, and particularly the fourth quarter.

If you go back in history and look at when our sales were at these levels in the past, 2003, '04 or '05, you can see trends that we feel are going to repeat themselves in terms of very strong working capital releases in the fourth quarter of each year, due to the shutdown at Thanksgiving and Christmas time period.

And so we would expect more of that release, Chris, to be a little later in the year.

Right, seasonally.

Okay.

This comes back to one of the earlier questions too, the 290,000 units coming down to 240,000 per quarter.

That's pretty consistent with what CSM is calling for from Q1 to Q2.

Is that consistent with the schedule that you're seeing?

Call it a 15% to 20% step-down in the build rate from Q1 to Q2?

Yes, a couple things I want to make very clear.

What I'm saying is that we would expect the quarterly cadence of production to be an average of approximately 240,000 units, second, third and fourth quarter.

We don't see a lot of variability quarter-to-quarter, but don't be surprised if one's a little bit higher and one's a little bit lower.

Particularly again, as you look at that fourth quarter, which has such a substantial number of holiday shutdown time period.

That one's probably a little bit less than average, depending on what happens with sales between here and there.

I will tell you flat-out that production schedules are higher, they are higher than the 240,000 unit expectation for the second quarter.

We'll see what transpires here through the next couple of months, but to be very clear, they are higher than what CSM is calling for.

And they, in fact, could be higher than our average.

Just have to wait and see.

Okay.

And then just the last thing, to make sure I was clear on the math on the profit headwind from the expiration of that GM 2008 deal.

If I followed your math right, should we see a step-up in the profit headwind from Q1 to Q2 of about $7.5 million?

Did I get that math right?

That is exactly right.

Now keep in mind, we don't -- we planned on this, we discussed this, there are other aspects of our business that are helping to offset that.

But I think it's important that everybody recognize that's an important issue in terms of comparing our margins and performance year-over-year.

Okay.

Thank you very much, Mike.

You got it.

Brian Johnson, Barclays Capital.

A couple questions.

Since the inventory you carry until it reaches GM is in a sale, until it reaches GM, are there any other things that, when we get to the income statement, we ought to be aware of, of timing of the GMT900 production scales versus booking of revenue for American Axle?

And maybe (multiple speakers) inventories --?

Okay, Brian, first of all, good morning.

(multiple speakers) Second of all, you said something inaccurate, I want to clarify that immediately.

The sale of our product to General Motors occurs on our dock.

Okay.

Okay?

Title transfers, nothing has changed in that regard.

GM's responsible to arrange mode of transportation, and they have the risk of ownership and loss during that time period.

So we continue to record a sale on our dock.

The only difference is that GM's administering that 47 paid weekly, beginning on the date of which those goods hit their dock.

From a practical standpoint, Brian, what you can assume is that our payment terms went up from approximately 50 days to approximately 57 days.

But the sale itself occurs on our dock.

And in terms of other timing, in terms of -- would you be building ahead or behind, given how variable production is going to be through the year?

For example, in four-quarter, did you build more axles, put them into the transit system, and therefore, you didn't have to build quite at the pace of their high production this quarter?

That's an excellent question.

When a customer anticipates higher production volumes, they do put more inventory in the system, in the channel, if you will.

So we saw a modest, not a very big number in the fourth quarter.

But over the last couple quarters as GM prepared for this higher inventory -- or I'm sorry, higher production activity, our sales were a little bit higher on a unit basis than they're in production.

That turned a little bit in the first quarter.

And we expect that it will turn again here as we work through the next couple quarters.

But nothing material, Brian.

The one issue that I would mention in this regard, does not have to do with our customers, but has to do with our suppliers.

Because one of the things that we're looking at and have to reevaluate and, of course, work with our supply base, is that if our payment terms from our customer are going to be taken up to about 57 days, then we need to evaluate whether it's appropriate for us to make any changes to the supplier payment terms that we have with our own supply chain.

So that's the one issue that I would count on.

Right.

I was going to ask you that question, but what I thought was inventory would be more around, are there further ways to optimize inventory?

The second question is when we get to this $350 million of launch activity, how much is -- and I recognize it's global -- but how much is commercial truck versus light vehicle?

And then how comfortable are you with the $350 million, given all the noise in the market around Chinese truck, commercial vehicle builds, Brazilian commercial vehicle builds, and so forth?

Okay, Chris Son is going to get you the good, accurate number on the amount of our new business backlog this year, our commercial vehicles.

Again, Daimler Truck, Mack and MNAL are the primary launches in our consolidated sales.

And that's going to be about $60 million, Chris tells me -- six-oh, $60 million; [but] the $350 million is our commercial vehicle business.

We are not particularly exposed to the Brazilian commercial truck market in that issue.

We're launching in the country of India.

And of course, in China, our joint venture is exposed to China in this regard, but we do not see significant issues to be concerned with in China.

Recall that we're focused on the light commercial vehicle truck market in China, and we're not seeing the same trends in that market as maybe you see in the heavier duty Class A market there.

So would that $60 million include Chinese LCVs, or that's --?

(multiple speakers)

It would not.

Right.

No.

And of the other $290 million, is it -- how would you split it between car and light truck and light commercial vehicle?

Most of that -- it's probably close to a 50/50 split between light truck programs like the GMI700 program; foreign and then global light truck programs; and then the rest is passenger car.

We got the Mercedes C and E class launching, the Cadillac ATS, the global small vehicle program of General Motors -- those are the biggest issues that we're supporting.

And so it's going to be a more balanced mix of light global truck and pass car, all wheel drive and rear wheel drive here in 2012.

Okay, thank you.

Brett Hoselton, KeyBanc.

Mike, I was hoping you could speak to your expectation for the cadence of margins throughout the remainder of the year.

Your guidance, 14% to 14.5%, you did 14.5% in the first quarter.

Is your expectation with lower GMT900 production that you may start to see EBITDA [sort of] drift down into that lower end of that range?

Or do you think there's some offsets that may allow you to stay closer to that upper end of that range?

Brett, good morning.

You know, this is an interesting question, a good question.

We did perform at the high end of the range in the first quarter.

And no question, we do expect some lower GMT900 production contribution going forward.

But keep in mind, from a margin performance standpoint, that we expect stronger contributions in some of our foreign operations that, to this point in time, have been cost centers for our Company.

And we are going to be turning these operations into profit-generating facilities.

So, in places like Thailand, and even in Brazil, where we are significantly expanding Brazil, we expect stronger profit contributions from some of these operations that will help to offset the GMT900 issue.

The other thing I mentioned in response to another question earlier in this call, was that the Dodge Ram heavy duty or the Ram heavy duty series pickup truck program, and the GM full-size van, are expected to run at levels at or slightly higher than what we had in the first quarter.

And so that will also be a favorable issue for us as we work through this year.

If we see some weakness in the third quarter, for example, which sometimes occurs, we may very well be at the lower end of our guidance ranges.

But we're very confident in our guidance range for this calendar year.

And I think you know when we set a range, internally, externally, it's in our nature to focus on the top end of that range.

And we're going to do everything we can to do that throughout this year.

Okay.

Gentlemen, thank you very much.

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

First of all, I want to thank you for all that detail in the call, it was really helpful.

But also a little hard to keep up, so maybe I'll say something you've already just spoken about.

I know, Mike, you referred to mix not being an issue either in 1Q or the rest of the year.

Can you just help me understand why, when GMT900 production was much higher in 1Q and is probably stepping down for the rest of the year?

Okay, when I was speaking to truck mix, Ravi, I was speaking only to sales, not production.

So, quite the opposite we think is going to happen, trend wise, throughout this year.

We expect truck sales to improve as we work through the rest of this calendar year.

That is somewhere between 52% and 55% of truck sales typically occurs in the second half of the calendar year as compared to the first half of the year.

So that comment that we made had only to do with the sales and, if you will, the macro environment, not the production cadence.

Got it.

Understood.

And did you say anything about the cadence of your backlog coming on for non-GM sales?

Was that particular -- was that weak at all in 1Q?

And is that going to step up for the rest of the year?

Yes, on a relative basis, compared to the rest of the year, our non-GM sales launch was weaker, or lesser, in the first quarter as compared to the rest of the year.

The major launch we had in the first quarter of 2012 was the GMI700 global pickup truck program.

And we're expecting some of these other programs that I've already mentioned to be launching second, third and fourth quarter this year.

So yes, we expect non-GM launches to be a higher percentage of our launch activity the rest of this year.

Great.

Thank you so much.

Peter Nesvold, Jefferies.

Actually, I think the comments upfront were very thorough, very helpful.

I think we're probably all set.

I'd like to follow-up with you offline, maybe just to go over a modeling question, and make sure I understand a couple of things.

No problem, we'll do that.

Thanks a lot, guys.

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

Just wanted to follow-up on the pace of your growth in non-GM revenues this quarter.

I understand that most of your strong launch activity for the year hasn't happened yet in the first quarter.

But was there anything else in terms of either the manufacturers or the geographies you supply, that would explain why non-GM sales grew by about 8%?

I mean, much softer than type of growth rate we've seen from you guys over the past couple of years.

Yes, yes, there is.

It's pretty straightforward and simple.

The GMT900 program went from 226,000 units to 290,000 units in one quarter.

I haven't done the specific math, but that's right around 25% growth.

We have the GMI700 launch on top of that.

So it's just math, Emmanuel, there's nothing (multiple speakers) --

No, I was -- I understand that from a mix point of view.

I'm talking about fewer units, your non-GM revenues were just up 8%, basically.

We've seen very strong double-digit, actually, you know, much more than that growth from you guys, in terms of pure non-GM revenues.

Is it just an issue of the cadence of your non-GM backlog this year?

Or are you supplying to certain geographies that didn't really grow all that fast this quarter?

Yes, we see nothing significant to note in this regard.

Recognize your comment, but there's nothing remarkable about those programs or what's happening to comment on at this time.

Okay.

And then regarding GM's compact pickups this summer -- I mean the terminating the program later this year, can you please update us on the, I guess, the expected timing on that?

And what sort of impact we could see from the end of this program for you guys?

(multiple speakers) Midsize trucks (multiple speakers) --

Yes, so, Emmanuel, we believe you're commenting on the GMT355 program, that is produced in Shreveport, Louisiana by General Motors.

GM has announced that the facility will build out at the end of August of this calendar year.

And so we expect to support their requirements through August, and then have no sales contribution from that program after August.

So what sort of impact -- financial impact are we talking about in terms of the sequential decline in revenues from that?

Yes, it's -- you know, the program has been running in the range of 50,000 units over the past couple of years, might be a little bit higher this year, on an annualized basis.

But, of course, we only get eight months of that.

So we expect production in that program to be in the range of 35,000, 40,000 units.

That's maybe 12,000 units a quarter.

And we'll lose maybe 3,000 or 4,000 units in September, maybe 12,000 in the fourth quarter on a comparable basis.

And that might be around $12 million of revenue per quarter, and maybe $3 million of profit contribution.

But that's baked in the cake in terms of our guidance and expectations for this year.

We've known about this for some time.

Yes, and Emmanuel, the only thing I -- this is David Dauch -- is again, the GMI7XX and the 31UX is, as that volume accelerates up, will clearly offset and add going forward to it, which is contemplated in our overall guidance, as Mike indicated.

Okay.

Perfect.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thanks, Emmanuel.

We've got time for one last question.

Your last question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

Your line is now open.

Gentlemen, good morning and thanks for squeezing me in.

(multiple speakers) Just to, I guess, synthesize some of the comments you made and given what the supply base -- your supply base and the high GMT and under volume, is it fair to say that from a profit contribution point of view, around that 240,000 units a quarter, is the sweet spot for you guys?

I wouldn't say that, but certainly, 240,000 units is very close to in line with our expectation for the year.

We can handle more volume, Joe; there's no question, as we did here in this first quarter.

We like more volume, but 240,000 is certainly in a range -- let me say this, it's in a range of the sweet spot.

It's certainly a good base foundational volume for us to deal with, but we're happy with higher volumes.

And Joe, probably what's more important is that the three quarters are consistent.

The 240,000, 240,000, 240,000 on top of the 290,000, so we're in the slip and dip up-and-down as they're preparing for the K2XX cadence, after the GM900 is phasing down.

I think that's the more important point, and obviously, the numbers are what they are.

And Joe, this is David Dauch.

The only thing I would say is clearly, the supply chain system was tested with the 290,000 units in the first quarter.

Clearly, we [hit] capacity to support that in our own operations, but we did incur some premiums, as Mike indicated earlier, with some premium freight and distant supplier issues where there were some bottlenecks as the system was being tested.

So I guess one level down from you at the suppliers, it seems like they're better able to operate at a level more on that 240,000?

Is that fair?

Yes, Joe, I would say this -- this is John Bellanti -- because this was a one-quarter phenomenon, we incurred some special premium costs, as David indicated.

If those types of volumes were going to continue for a longer period, we would certainly make adjustments in capacity at the supply base, which could be done rather rapidly.

It wasn't the right economic decision, knowing we had a one-quarter phenomenon to work through.

Okay, fair enough.

And then just one quick one on working capital.

I was just curious -- are there any meaningfully different changes in terms of payment or receivable terms as you move more into the commercial truck business, or even more internationally?

Yes, Joe, that's an excellent question.

I'll tell you this -- I think with the change the General Motors is making to administer the payment terms on a Pay On Receipt basis, we're actually moving -- or GM is moving, the US norm culture to the international or foreign norm.

And most of our operations around the world have payment terms in average around 60 days.

So that had been approximately 10 days lighter than what we were experiencing here in the US.

Now, of course, we're getting closer, at least with GM, to parity with that issue.

So there will be a little bit of a adjustment as we work through a more balanced revenue stream, US versus non-US, or maybe I should say North America versus non-North America.

But we don't expect it to be much wider or any different than around 60 days -- which, from our observations, are consistent with our peers and competitors.

Okay, great.

Thanks a lot, everyone.

Got it.

Okay, thanks.

Great.

We thank all of you who have participated on this call, and appreciate your interest in AAM.

We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

You may now disconnect.