Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 and Full Year 2023 Armstrong World Industries Earnings Conference Call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加阿姆斯壯世界工業公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

I would now like to welcome Theresa Womble, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications to begin the call. Theresa, over to you.

現在我歡迎投資人關係和企業傳播副總裁 Theresa Womble 開始電話會議。特蕾莎，交給你了。

Thank you, and good morning to everyone on our call. On today's call, Vic Grizzle, our CEO; and Chris Calzaretta, our CFO, will discuss Armstrong World Industries fourth quarter and full year '23 results and 2024 outlook. To accompany these remarks, we have provided a presentation that is available on the Investors section of the Armstrong World Industries website.

謝謝您，祝我們通話中的每個人早安。在今天的電話會議上，我們的執行長維克·格里茲爾 (Vic Grizzle) 表示：我們的財務長 Chris Calzaretta 將討論阿姆斯壯世界工業公司 23 年第四季和全年業績以及 2024 年展望。為了配合這些評論，我們在阿姆斯壯世界工業網站的投資者部分提供了一份簡報。

Our discussion of operating and financial performance will include non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of these measures with the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in the earnings press release and in the appendix of the presentation issued this morning. Both are available on the Investors section of the website.

我們對營運和財務表現的討論將包括 SEC G 條例含義內的非 GAAP 財務指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳包含在收益新聞稿和本次發布的簡報的附錄中。早晨。兩者均可在網站的投資者部分找到。

During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that represent the view we have of our financial and operating performance as of today's date, February 20, 2024. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may differ materially from those expected or implied. We provide a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties in our SEC filings which include the 10-K filed earlier this morning. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement beyond what is required by applicable securities laws.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，代表我們對截至今天（2024 年2 月20 日）的財務和營運績效的看法。這些聲明涉及風險和不確定性，可能與預期或暗示的風險和不確定性有重大差異。我們在 SEC 文件中詳細討論了風險和不確定性，其中包括今天早上提交的 10-K。除適用證券法要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I will now turn the call to Vic.

我現在將電話轉給維克。

Thank you, Theresa, and welcome, everyone, to our call today. I'm delighted to have this opportunity to discuss our 2023 results and our expectations for 2024. For those of you who have been following us for a while, I'm sure you'll appreciate the sentiment of what a difference a year makes. We began 2023 with a rather cautious view as many did, with expectations of a negative market backdrop with high levels of uncertainty and in particular, in the back half of the year.

謝謝特蕾莎，歡迎大家參加我們今天的電話會議。我很高興有這個機會討論我們 2023 年的業績以及我們對 2024 年的期望。對於那些一直關注我們一段時間的人來說，我相信您會體會到一年所帶來的變化。與許多人一樣，我們對 2023 年持相當謹慎的看法，預計市場環境將出現負面影響，且不確定性較高，尤其是在今年下半年。

We're also coming off of 2022 results that were pressured by several factors like rapidly rising inflation, higher interest rates and overall economic uncertainty. Despite these factors and with softer office demand, the economy in our markets overall fared better-than-expected in 2023. Better-than-expected markets, along with our team's consistent and steady execution helped deliver our strong results for both the quarter and the year.

我們也公佈了 2022 年業績，這些業績受到通膨迅速上升、利率上升和整體經濟不確定性等多種因素的壓力。儘管存在這些因素，而且辦公大樓需求疲軟，但2023 年我們市場的經濟總體表現優於預期。好於預期的市場，加上我們團隊一貫穩定的執行力，幫助我們在本季度和整個季度取得了強勁的業績年。

On a total company basis for the full year, we delivered record-setting net sales of $1.3 billion, which was a 5% increase from full year 2022 results. Our adjusted EBITDA grew 12% to $430 million representing 200 basis points of improvement in our adjusted EBITDA margin. This result was also 7% greater than our prior record for adjusted EBITDA of $403 million set back in 2019.

就全年公司整體而言，我們實現了創紀錄的 13 億美元淨銷售額，比 2022 年全年業績成長 5%。調整後 EBITDA 成長 12%，達到 4.3 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 200 個基點。這項結果也比我們 2019 年創下的調整後 EBITDA 4.03 億美元的紀錄高出 7%。

On an adjusted diluted EPS basis, we delivered growth of 12% and our adjusted free cash flow of $263 million grew 19% above prior year results. We are pleased with these strong results as they represent an ongoing demonstration of Armstrong's resilient business model with its strong market position, a diverse and balanced set of end market verticals and attractive growth initiatives. These attributes allow the company to deliver revenue and earnings growth with margin expansion, even in soft market conditions. These results also reflect the work of more than 3,000 employees who are passionate about our mission and our customers who drive our strategy, develop and execute the quality and the productivity projects in our plants, and ensure we maintain our best-in-class service levels for our customers. We want to thank them for the great work that they do.

在調整後的稀釋每股收益基礎上，我們實現了 12% 的成長，調整後的自由現金流為 2.63 億美元，比去年同期成長了 19%。我們對這些強勁的業績感到高興，因為它們持續展示了阿姆斯壯富有彈性的商業模式及其強大的市場地位、多樣化且平衡的垂直市場和有吸引力的成長計劃。這些特性使該公司即使在疲軟的市場條件下也能實現收入和獲利成長以及利潤率擴張。這些結果也反映了 3,000 多名對我們的使命充滿熱情的員工和我們的客戶的工作，他們推動我們的戰略，在我們的工廠開發和執行質量和生產力項目，並確保我們保持一流的服務水平為我們的客戶。我們要感謝他們所做的出色工作。

In our Mineral Fiber segment, our fourth quarter sales increased 2% on flat sales volume versus prior year, which was better-than-expected due to the better-than-expected market conditions and retail sales. For the full year, with strong AUV and solid contributions from our WAVE joint venture, our Mineral Fiber segment delivered 5% net sales growth and 10% adjusted EBITDA growth with almost 200 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, reaching a margin for the full year of just over 39%. Our plants also operated well in the quarter as evidenced by strong quality and service levels and for the full year, had strong productivity results and safety performance.

在我們的礦物纖維部門，我們第四季的銷售額與去年同期持平，成長了 2%，由於市場狀況和零售銷售好於預期，因此好於預期。全年，憑藉強勁的AUV 和WAVE 合資企業的堅實貢獻，我們的礦物纖維業務實現了5% 的淨銷售額增長和10% 的調整後EBITDA 增長，調整後EBITDA 利潤率擴大了近200 個基點，達到了全年利潤率年略高於 39%。我們的工廠在本季也運作良好，強勁的品質和服務水準證明了這一點，全年也擁有強勁的生產力成果和安全績效。

Now before moving to Architectural Specialties, I'd like to call attention to the positive impact we're getting from our growth initiatives. We estimate that these growth initiatives drove more than 1% to our Mineral Fiber volume growth for the full year and helped offset market weakness. These initiatives include the digital selling platform, Canopy by Armstrong and the automated design platform, ProjectWorks as well as our Healthy Spaces initiatives.

現在，在轉向建築專業之前，我想提請大家注意我們的成長計畫所帶來的正面影響。我們估計，這些成長舉措推動了我們全年礦物纖維銷量成長超過 1%，並幫助抵消了市場疲軟的影響。這些舉措包括數位銷售平台 Canopy by Armstrong 和自動化設計平台 ProjectWorks 以及我們的健康空間舉措。

Sales through the Canopy platform continues to ramp and similar to the third quarter, Canopy was EBITDA positive in the fourth quarter. This cost-effective selling platform is allowing us to access the 60% of the installed base for Mineral Fiber that has limited access to the know-how and solutions for renovating their ceilings. The easy-to-use platform is creating more awareness of the many options for renovating with our large portfolio of solutions and is bringing a wide variety of new customers to Armstrong and our distribution partners.

Canopy 平台的銷售額持續成長，與第三季類似，第四季 Canopy 的 EBITDA 為正值。這個具有成本效益的銷售平台使我們能夠接觸到 60% 的 Mineral Fiber 裝置基礎，而這些人無法獲得翻新天花板的專業知識和解決方案。這個易於使用的平台讓人們更加了解我們龐大的解決方案組合進行翻新的多種選擇，並為阿姆斯壯和我們的分銷合作夥伴帶來了各種各樣的新客戶。

Our ProjectWorks automated design service continues to advance nicely as well. This is a unique capability within our industry and is accelerating the speed and efficiency of customer project collaboration. ProjectWorks addresses the growing challenge architects and designers face in compressed completion cycles and higher number of projects to complete with the same number of architects on staff. In addition, ProjectWorks helps contractors and ultimately, the project owners reduce costs by eliminating waste through optimization of the design and the bill of materials. We're excited to get in front of more and more architects and designers and contractors and to expand the number of products that are incorporated on this platform. We are clearly over the right target here, and differentiating what we bring to projects beyond just great products.

我們的 ProjectWorks 自動化設計服務也持續取得良好進展。這是我們產業中的獨特功能，正在加快客戶專案協作的速度和效率。 ProjectWorks 解決了建築師和設計師在壓縮完成周期和在相同數量的建築師員工的情況下需要完成更多項目所面臨的日益嚴峻的挑戰。此外，ProjectWorks 透過優化設計和物料清單消除浪費，幫助承包商並最終幫助專案業主降低成本。我們很高興能夠面對越來越多的建築師、設計師和承包商，並擴大該平台上整合的產品數量。我們顯然已經超越了正確的目標，並且我們為專案帶來的不僅僅是出色的產品。

And finally, our Healthy Spaces product portfolio continues to outpace our overall Mineral Fiber growth as these products gain traction in sectors like education and office verticals outside the original intended health care spaces. In 2023, sales of these products grew double digits and contributed to both volume and AUV growth. Overall, we remain pleased with the progress of our growth initiatives and the positive impact they are making on Mineral Fiber volume growth.

最後，我們的健康空間產品組合繼續超過我們整體礦物纖維的成長，因為這些產品在最初預期的醫療保健空間之外的教育和辦公垂直領域中獲得了關注。 2023 年，這些產品的銷售額實現了兩位數成長，並促進了銷售量和 AUV 的成長。總體而言，我們對成長計劃的進展及其對礦物纖維銷售成長的正面影響感到滿意。

Now turning to Architectural Specialties. We delivered 4% sales growth in the quarter and 5% sales growth for the year, with contributions from recent acquisitions. We also continue to grow earnings for the segment and made progress toward improving profitability with adjusted EBITDA increasing 27% versus the prior year with margin expansion of 330 basis points. This marks the seventh time in the last 8 quarters that this segment has delivered period-over-period EBITDA margin expansion. For the full year, Architectural Specialties EBITDA margin expanded more than 200 basis points. With improved operating performance throughout 2023, we remain on our path to our target of 20% EBITDA margin for the Architectural Specialties segment.

現在轉向建築專業。在最近的收購的推動下，我們本季的銷售額成長了 4%，全年的銷售額成長了 5%。我們也繼續增加該部門的收益，並在提高盈利能力方面取得了進展，調整後的 EBITDA 比上一年增長了 27%，利潤率擴大了 330 個基點。這標誌著該部門在過去 8 個季度中第七次實現 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長。全年，建築專業 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 200 個基點以上。隨著 2023 年營運績效的改善，我們將繼續實現建築專業領域 EBITDA 利潤率 20% 的目標。

Further supporting the organic growth in this segment, we remain encouraged by the quoting and bidding activity with airport projects across the country. Through the bipartisan infrastructure law passed in 2021, approximately $15 billion in federal funds has been earmarked for airport infrastructure development with $9 billion allocated through 2024. As we've mentioned, these are larger and more complex projects, typically with multiple product types sought by the architects and designers.

為了進一步支持該領域的有機成長，我們仍然對全國各地機場計畫的報價和招標活動感到鼓舞。透過2021 年通過的兩黨基礎設施法，約150 億美元的聯邦資金已指定用於機場基礎設施​​開發，其中到2024 年將分配90 億美元。正如我們所提到的，這些項目規模更大、更複雜，通常包含多種產品類型建築師和設計師。

With the largest portfolio of Mineral Fiber and specialty ceiling and wall products, we are uniquely positioned to capture these opportunities, and we expect the transportation vertical to provide a nice tailwind in the Architectural Specialties segment for the next several years to come.

憑藉最大的礦物纖維和特殊天花板和牆壁產品組合，我們擁有獨特的優勢來抓住這些機會，我們預計垂直運輸將為未來幾年的建築特殊領域提供良好的推動力。

Now I'll pause and turn it over to Chris for some more detail on our financial results and our 2024 outlook. Chris?

現在我將暫停一下，將其交給 Chris，以了解有關我們的財務表現和 2024 年前景的更多詳細資訊。克里斯？

Thanks, Vic, and good morning to everyone on the call. As a reminder, throughout my remarks, I'll be referring to the slides available on our website, and Slide 3, which details our basis of presentation. On Slide 6, we discuss our fourth quarter Mineral Fiber segment results. Mineral Fiber sales grew 2% in the quarter primarily driven by AUV which represents a combination of like-for-like pricing and mix.

謝謝維克，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。提醒一下，在我的整個演講中，我將參考我們網站上提供的幻燈片以及幻燈片 3，其中詳細介紹了我們的簡報基礎。在投影片 6 上，我們討論了第四季礦物纖維部門的表現。本季礦物纖維銷售成長 2%，主要受到 AUV 的推動，AUV 代表了同類定價和產品組合的結合。

In the quarter, AUV growth was driven by favorable like-for-like pricing, partially offset by unfavorable mix. We continue to deliver strong price realization in line with expectations, but mix was a headwind, largely due to mix dynamics within our channels, which we believe are timing related. AUV remains a core value driver for the Mineral Fiber segment. And despite mix pressure in 2023, we delivered full year AUV growth of 5%, which is in line with our historical average. Mineral Fiber volumes were essentially flat in the quarter as contributions from our growth initiatives offset a softer market. While Mineral Fiber volumes were flat compared to the prior year, they were ahead of our guidance expectations as the market in the fourth quarter was broadly more resilient than we expected.

本季度，AUV 的成長是由有利的同類定價推動的，但部分被不利的組合所抵消。我們繼續實現符合預期的強勁價格實現，但混合是一個逆風，這主要是由於我們通路內的混合動態，我們認為這與時間有關。 AUV 仍然是礦物纖維領域的核心價值驅動力。儘管 2023 年面臨混合壓力，但我們全年 AUV 成長了 5%，這與我們的歷史平均值一致。由於我們的成長計畫的貢獻抵消了市場疲軟的影響，本季礦物纖維銷售量基本持平。雖然礦物纖維銷售與去年同期持平，但超出了我們的指導預期，因為第四季度的市場總體上比我們預期更有彈性。

Additionally, sales volumes to retail customers were also better-than-expected. While retail sales provide upside to our volume expectations, it also contributed to an AUV headwind in the form of channel mix versus our outlook. Mineral Fiber segment adjusted EBITDA grew by $3 million or 3% and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter. The follow-through of AUV and the contributions from WAVE equity earnings were the primary drivers for margin expansion versus the prior year period.

此外，零售客戶的銷售也比預期好。雖然零售銷售為我們的銷售預期提供了上行空間，但它也以通路組合的形式對我們的前景造成了逆風。第四季礦物纖維部門調整後 EBITDA 成長了 300 萬美元，即 3%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 50 個基點。 AUV 的後續行動和 WAVE 股權收益的貢獻是利潤率較上年同期成長的主要驅動力。

As expected, manufacturing costs were higher than prior year due to the lapping of a strong prior year period where we saw both outsized productivity and cost control gains. This was offset by lower input costs as raw materials remained inflationary but were more than offset by energy and freight deflation. Input costs in the quarter also included a benefit from favorable inventory valuation impacts related to the timing of moderating input costs flowing through the P&L.

正如預期的那樣，由於去年強勁的生產力和成本控制收益，製造成本高於去年。由於原材料仍處於通貨膨脹狀態，投入成本下降抵消了這一影響，但能源和貨運通貨緊縮抵消了這種影響。本季的投入成本還包括與調節損益表投入成本的時間相關的有利庫存估值影響所帶來的收益。

SG&A increased $7 million versus the prior year, which was in line with our outlook. This increase versus the prior year period was primarily due to higher current year incentive compensation, combined with the lapping of a benefit in the prior year as well as higher promotional selling expenses in support of top line growth. Our teams continue to maintain a disciplined approach to cost control on our discretionary spending as we navigated soft market conditions. WAVE equity earnings grew $4 million as compared to prior year with favorable EBITDA margins and slightly higher volumes. Volumes were better-than-expected, largely due to more supportive market conditions.

SG&A 比前一年增加了 700 萬美元，符合我們的預期。與去年同期相比，此成長主要是由於本年度激勵薪酬增加，加上上一年的效益以及支持營收成長的促銷銷售費用增加。當我們應對疲軟的市場條件時，我們的團隊繼續對可自由支配支出保持嚴格的成本控制方法。 WAVE 股本收益與上年相比增長了 400 萬美元，EBITDA 利潤率良好且銷量略有增加。成交量優於預期，主要是由於市場條件更為有利。

On Slide 7, we discuss our Architectural Specialties or AS segment results. Sales growth of 4% in the quarter was led by contributions from our recent acquisitions which offset project-related timing impacts. As a reminder, AS revenue is more impacted by project time lines than Mineral Fiber. So quarters can tend to be lumpy and project scheduling or delays can have outsized impacts quarter-to-quarter.

在投影片 7 上，我們討論了建築專業或 AS 部門的結果。本季銷售額成長 4%，主要得益於我們最近收購的貢獻，抵銷了專案相關的時間影響。提醒一下，AS 收入比礦物纖維更容易受到專案時間線的影響。因此，季度往往會出現波動，專案進度或延遲可能會產生巨大的季度影響。

A highlight in the quarter for AS was the segment's adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.4%, which expanded 330 basis points from the prior year period. This marks the third consecutive quarter with over 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and resulted in a full year adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.1% for the segment. expanding over 200 basis points versus the prior year. As Vic noted earlier, we continue to be encouraged by this progress and remain well on our way to the 20% EBITDA margin level that we believe we can return to in this segment.

AS 本季的一個亮點是該部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 18.4%，比去年同期擴大了 330 個基點。這標誌著該部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率連續第三個季度增長超過 300 個基點，全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 18.1%。較上年擴大200多個基點。正如 Vic 之前指出的那樣，我們繼續受到這一進展的鼓舞，並繼續努力實現 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率水平，我們相信我們可以在這一領域恢復到這一水平。

Slide 8 shows our fourth quarter consolidated total company metrics where benefits from higher volumes, improved AUV and higher WAVE equity earnings were partially offset by increased SG&A. Input costs in manufacturing largely offset each other. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points with adjusted EBITDA up 7% and adjusted diluted earnings per share, up 13% versus the prior year period. Our 31.4% adjusted EBITDA margin was the strongest fourth quarter result since 2019, and we remain focused on continuing to drive adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們第四季度的綜合公司總體指標，其中銷量增加、AUV 改善和 WAVE 股本收益增加帶來的收益被 SG&A 的增加部分抵消。製造業的投入成本在很大程度上相互抵銷。合併調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 130 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 成長 7%，調整後稀釋每股盈餘較上年同期成長 13%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.4%，是自 2019 年以來第四季最強勁的業績，我們仍專注於繼續推動調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的擴張。

Slide 9 highlights our full year consolidated company metrics. We grew adjusted EBITDA by 12% and expanded margins 200 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share also increased 12% versus the prior year period, and adjusted free cash flow increased $42 million or 19%. I'm proud of the work that our teams have done throughout the year to deliver double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion and double-digit adjusted free cash flow growth in a soft market.

投影片 9 重點介紹了我們全年的綜合公司指標。我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 12%，利潤率擴大了 200 個基點。調整後的稀釋每股盈餘也較上年同期成長了 12%，調整後的自由現金流增加了 4,200 萬美元，即 19%。我對我們的團隊全年所做的工作感到自豪，他們在疲軟的市場中實現了兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 成長、利潤率擴張和兩位數的調整後自由現金流成長。

Slide 10 shows our year-to-date adjusted free cash flow performance versus the prior year. The 19% increase was driven primarily by working capital improvement and higher cash earnings, partially offset by an increase in capital expenditures, lower dividends from WAVE and higher cash interest. Recall that in the fourth quarter of 2022, we received a $25 million special dividend from WAVE that did not repeat in 2023. Excluding that special dividend in the prior year, we grew adjusted free cash flow by a robust 34%.

投影片 10 顯示了我們今年迄今調整後的自由現金流表現與前一年的比較。 19% 的成長主要是由營運資本改善和現金收益增加所推動的，但部分被資本支出增加、WAVE 股息減少和現金利息增加所抵消。回想一下，在2022 年第四季度，我們從WAVE 獲得了2500 萬美元的特別股息，該股息在2023 年沒有重複。除去上一年的特別股息，我們調整後的自由現金流強勁增長了34% 。

The ability to consistently drive free cash flow generation even in a soft market is one of the key strengths of Armstrong. A key strength that fuels a healthy balance sheet, advances innovation and enables us to execute on all of our capital allocation priorities. These priorities remain unchanged as we first look to invest back into the business by way of productivity and growth projects where we generate the highest returns.

即使在市場疲軟的情況下，也能夠持續推動自由現金流的產生，這是阿姆斯壯的關鍵優勢之一。這是推動健康資產負債表、推動創新並使我們能夠執行所有資本配置優先事項的關鍵優勢。這些優先事項保持不變，因為我們首先希望透過能產生最高回報的生產力和成長項目重新投資於業務。

Second, we target acquisitions and partnerships with differentiated and specifiable products and solutions that strengthen our broad product portfolio. And third, we provide value to shareholders through a growing dividend and share repurchases. And looking back on 2023, we delivered on all 3. In Q3, we noted the ongoing investment to expand our metal capacity and capabilities within our AS business to maximize returns in a growing category. In July, we completed the acquisition of BOK Modern, which is already providing incremental sales and EBITDA.

其次，我們的目標是收購和建立具有差異化和可指定的產品和解決方案的合作夥伴關係，以加強我們廣泛的產品組合。第三，我們透過增加股利和股票回購為股東提供價值。回顧 2023 年，我們實現了所有 3 個目標。在第三季度，我們注意到我們正在進行投資，以擴大我們的 AS 業務中的金屬產能和能力，以最大限度地提高不斷增長的類別的回報。 7 月，我們完成了 BOK Modern 的收購，該公司已經提供了增量銷售額和 EBITDA。

And in October, we increased our dividend by 10%, the fifth consecutive annual increase since dividend inception in 2018. And still, we continue to repurchase shares throughout the year. In the fourth quarter, we repurchased $35 million of shares and for the full year, we repurchased $132 million. Since the inception of our share repurchase program in 2016, we have repurchased a total of 14.2 million shares for $983 million or approximately 1/4 of our total shares outstanding at the -- since the end of 2015. As of the end of 2023, we have over $700 million remaining under the existing authorization. This disciplined and balanced approach to capital deployment continues to create value for our shareholders.

10 月份，我們將股息增加了 10%，這是自 2018 年股息開始以來連續第五年增加。儘管如此，我們全年仍繼續回購股票。第四季度，我們回購了 3,500 萬美元的股票，全年回購了 1.32 億美元。自 2016 年啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們已以 9.83 億美元回購了總計 1,420 萬股股票，約佔自 2015 年底以來已發行股票總數的 1/4。截至 2023 年底，現有授權下我們還剩7 億多美元。這種嚴格且平衡的資本配置方法繼續為我們的股東創造價值。

Slide 11 shows our full year 2024 guidance. We expect to carry the momentum of solid execution and focus on margin expansion from 2023 into 2024. We expect total company net sales growth in the 3% to 6% range. We expect our growth initiatives to partially offset modestly lower market demand, resulting in Mineral Fiber volume down in the low single-digit range. We expect Mineral Fiber AUV to be in line with our historical average of mid-single digits, returning to a more balanced split of price and mix and contributing to EBITDA margin expansion.

幻燈片 11 顯示了我們的 2024 年全年指引。我們預計從 2023 年到 2024 年，我們將保持穩健執行的勢頭，並專注於利潤率擴張。我們預計公司總淨銷售額將增長在 3% 至 6% 範圍內。我們預期我們的成長舉措將部分抵消市場需求的小幅下降，導致礦物纖維銷售下降至低個位數範圍。我們預計礦物纖維 AUV 將與我們中個位數的歷史平均值保持一致，恢復價格和組合的更平衡的分配，並有助於 EBITDA 利潤率的擴張。

We also expect manufacturing productivity and normalizing levels of inflation in 2024. And paired with continued efforts for AS to penetrate a fragmented market and expand margins, we expect total company adjusted EBITDA growth in the 5% to 9% range. We expect adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted free cash flow to grow at a rate similar to adjusted EBITDA. Please note that additional assumptions are in the appendix of this presentation.

我們也預期 2024 年製造業生產力和通膨水準正常化。再加上 AS 不斷努力滲透分散的市場並擴大利潤率，我們預計公司調整後 EBITDA 成長率將在 5% 至 9% 範圍內。我們預計調整後稀釋每股盈餘和調整後自由現金流將以與調整後 EBITDA 類似的速度成長。請注意，本簡報的附錄中包含其他假設。

We anticipate 2024 to be similar to 2023, albeit with less market uncertainty. Our teams remain laser-focused on delivering profitable growth, margin expansion and adjusted free cash flow growth despite modestly softer market conditions. I'm excited to further this momentum as we continue to execute our strategy and create value for our shareholders.

我們預計 2024 年將與 2023 年類似，但市場不確定性較小。儘管市場狀況略有疲軟，我們的團隊仍專注於實現獲利成長、利潤率擴張和調整後的自由現金流成長。我很高興能夠在我們繼續執行我們的策略並為股東創造價值的過程中進一步推動這一勢頭。

And now I'll turn it back to Vic for further comments before we take your questions. Vic?

現在，在我們回答您的問題之前，我將把它轉回給維克以徵求進一步的意見。維克？

Thanks, Chris. And before we get to your questions, I'd like to take a moment to share a few highlights from Armstrong's proven ability to consistently and steadily invest back in our business and innovation through all parts of the cycle. In January, we announced a new partnership with McKinstry, an innovative leading construction and energy services company to tackle another challenging aspect of commercial construction today. The waste and inefficiency in the installation of systems, devices and components needed to meet today's tenant requirements.

謝謝，克里斯。在回答您的問題之前，我想花點時間分享一些亮點，這些亮點來自阿姆斯壯經過驗證的能力，即在整個週期的各個部分持續穩定地投資於我們的業務和創新。一月份，我們宣布與領先的創新建築和能源服務公司 McKinstry 建立新的合作夥伴關係，以解決當今商業建築的另一個具有挑戰性的問題。滿足當今租戶需求所需的系統、設備和組件的安裝存在浪費和低效率。

With an Equity Investment in Overcast Innovations and early-stage McKinstry Venture, we're codeveloping plug-and-play systems that streamline this increasingly complex process. This represents an integrated approach that goes well beyond ceiling tiles. Overcast works with architects to integrate HVAC, lighting, audiovisual components, sensors and other ceiling equipment into factory manufactured architectural ceiling solutions.

透過對 Overcast Innovations 和早期 McKinstry Venture 的股權投資，我們正在共同開發即插即用系統，以簡化這一日益複雜的流程。這代表了一種遠遠超出天花板瓷磚的綜合方法。 Overcast 與建築師合作，將暖通空調、照明、視聽組件、感測器和其他天花板設備整合到工廠製造的建築天花板解決方案中。

The partnership and investment are expected to accelerate Overcast growth through access to Armstrong's portfolio of ceiling solutions and go-to-market platform. By bringing together industry-leading Armstrong ceiling systems with Overcast pioneering integrated modular ceiling design, we can offer unique and sustainable solutions. Another area of focus has been innovation in our Healthy Spaces initiative and has evolved over time to include the energy efficiency and overall thermal comfort of commercial buildings. As you may know, buildings are responsible for nearly 40% of global energy consumption.

此次合作和投資預計將透過使用阿姆斯壯的天花板解決方案組合和上市平台來加速 Overcast 的成長。透過將業界領先的阿姆斯壯天花板系統與 Overcast 開創性的整合式模組化天花板設計相結合，我們可以提供獨特且可持續的解決方案。另一個重點領域是我們健康空間計畫的創新，並隨著時間的推移而不斷發展，包括商業建築的能源效率和整體熱舒適度。如您所知，建築物消耗了全球近 40% 的能源消耗。

And in the U.S. alone, this energy consumption represents nearly 75% of all electricity used and 35% of the nation's carbon emissions. Importantly, over 50% of that energy consumption is used to heat and cool buildings. As part of our research and development efforts, we have focused on how ceilings can play a significant role in creating healthier and more sustainable spaces and enable energy efficiency for more sustainable buildings and ultimately accelerate the efforts of building owners and operators to achieve their net zero energy aspirations.

光是在美國，這種能源消耗就佔所有用電量的近 75%，佔全國碳排放量的 35%。重要的是，超過 50% 的能源消耗用於建築物供暖和製冷。作為我們研發工作的一部分，我們重點關注天花板如何在創造更健康和更​​可持續的空間方面發揮重要作用，並為更永續的建築提高能源效率，並最終加速建築業主和營運商實現淨零排放的努力能源願望。

As we announced in December, Armstrong has acquired the technology to integrate Phase Change Material or PCM into our ceiling tiles to improve their thermal mass and thereby reduce the energy consumption of commercial buildings by as much as 15%. This performance is enabled by the heat absorption and release properties of PCM that can shorten the heating and cooling cycles to save energy. This technology enabled us to introduce Ultima Templok. The first of its kind and the first of what we expect to become a broader portfolio of energy-saving ceiling tiles.

正如我們在 12 月宣布的那樣，阿姆斯壯已獲得將相變材料或 PCM 整合到我們的天花板中的技術，以提高其熱質量，從而將商業建築的能耗降低多達 15%。這種性能是由 PCM 的吸熱和釋放特性實現的，可以縮短加熱和冷卻週期以節省能源。這項技術使我們能夠推出 Ultima Templok。這是同類產品中的第一個，也是我們期望成為更廣泛的節能天花板產品組合的第一個。

Ultima Templok brings the same smooth white look, the same superior acoustical performance that our customers enjoy today, but now in a package that also saves energy. This is the first ceiling tile that will pay for itself over time. Our first customer for this new energy saving ceiling solution is the U.S. Department of Energy as part of an ongoing government study of new innovative technologies that offer energy efficiency and decarbonization benefits. Needless to say, this is an exciting innovation for the entire ceiling category and a brand-new way for building owners and operators to reduce energy costs and to make their buildings more sustainable. Our ongoing focus on innovation is a key element of our strategy that provides a unique value proposition to all of our customers.

Ultima Templok 帶來了我們的客戶今天所享受的同樣光滑的白色外觀和同樣卓越的聲學性能，但現在的包裝還可以節省能源。這是第一塊隨著時間的推移會收回成本的天花板。我們這種新型節能天花板解決方案的第一個客戶是美國能源部，這是政府正在進行的一項旨在提供能源效率和脫碳效益的創新技術研究的一部分。不用說，這對於整個天花板類別來說是一項令人興奮的創新，也是建築業主和營運商降低能源成本並使建築更永續的全新方式。我們對創新的持續關注是我們為所有客戶提供獨特價值主張的策略的關鍵要素。

Our innovation continues to add value and new attributes to the ceiling category, making ceilings more relevant and valuable to architects and designers and building owners, and it ultimately positions Armstrong well to consistently grow the AUV of our products and enhance our overall competitive advantage.

我們的創新不斷為天花板類別增加價值和新屬性，使天花板對建築師、設計師和業主而言更具相關性和價值，最終使阿姆斯特朗能夠持續增長我們產品的 AUV 並增強我們的整體競爭優勢。

And finally, to wrap, despite expecting a modestly softer demand year ahead, we are carrying some good momentum into 2024. We demonstrated our unique resilience in 2023 by delivering profitable growth in a challenging market. And with modestly softer market conditions in 2024, we expect to do more of the same. The resilience of this business has been a hallmark for many years. And since the 2020 pandemic, we have generated sales and earnings growth each year even though the commercial construction markets have not fully recovered. This growth enables our ability to consistently invest back in the business to drive innovation into the market and fuel future growth. All this, in addition to providing direct returns to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, again, even during weaker economic times.

最後，總而言之，儘管預計未來一年需求將適度疲軟，但我們在 2024 年仍將保持良好勢頭。透過在充滿挑戰的市場中實現盈利增長，我們在 2023 年展示了我們獨特的韌性。隨著 2024 年市場狀況適度疲軟，我們預計會採取更多相同的措施。多年來，該業務的韌性一直是其標誌。自 2020 年大流行以來，儘管商業建築市場尚未完全復甦，但我們每年都實現了銷售和獲利成長。這種成長使我們能夠持續投資於業務，推動市場創新並推動未來的成長。所有這一切，除了透過股息和股票回購為我們的股東提供直接回報之外，即使在經濟疲軟時期也是如此。

So with that, we'll stop here and be happy to take your questions.

那麼，我們就到此為止，很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Garik Shmois with Loop Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Garik Shmois。

Congrats on the quarter. Hoping you could speak a little bit as to what you're seeing so far in the first quarter, we've been hearing from other companies that weather has been a little bit of a headwind, not sure that's impacting you and then maybe speak to how you expect the slope of the year to progress both for sales and margins, anything to take into account there?

恭喜本季。希望您能談談您在第一季到目前為止所看到的情況，我們從其他公司那裡聽說天氣有點不利，不確定這對您有影響，然後也許可以與您預計今年的銷售額和利潤率將如何成長，有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

Yes, Garik, on the direct part of your question, we've not seen any measurable impact on weather on the business in the first 6 weeks of the year here so far. So let me answer that directly. What we're seeing in the marketplace and what we expect to see, start back with the third quarter of last year, we saw a market that, again, was better than what we were expecting. And then in the fourth quarter, we saw a very similar market condition than -- that we saw in the third quarter.

是的，Garik，關於您問題的直接部分，到目前為止，我們在今年的前 6 週內還沒有看到天氣對業務產生任何可衡量的影響。那麼就讓我直接回答這個問題吧。我們在市場上看到的以及我們期望看到的，從去年第三季開始，我們看到的市場再次好於我們的預期。然後在第四季度，我們看到了與第三季度非常相似的市場狀況。

So as we outlook the halves of the year in 2024, we kind of expect that the first and second quarter, first half of this year to be fairly similar to what we saw in the back half. It seems to be just kind of at this level just progressing along at this level. In the back half is where we have more uncertainty, again, with the lag effect of our business and the lag effect of higher interest rates, overall slower economic activity that's expected, we see that, that could potentially hit the discretionary part of our business, and we might see some softer market conditions and softer volumes in the back half of the year. That's our current outlook. Again, there's some uncertainty with regards to exactly what we're going to see.

因此，當我們展望 2024 年下半年時，我們預計今年上半年的第一季和第二季將與我們下半年看到的情況相當相似。似乎只是在這個級別上，只是在這個級別上進步。在後半段，我們再次面臨更多的不確定性，由於我們業務的滯後效應和利率上升的滯後效應，預計經濟活動總體放緩，我們認為這可能會影響我們業務的可自由支配部分，我們可能會在今年下半年看到一些疲軟的市場狀況和銷售量。這就是我們目前的展望。同樣，我們到底會看到什麼還存在一些不確定性。

And as Chris mentioned in his prepared remarks, we don't see the same kind of variation in the potential outcomes as we did going into '23. But still there's some uncertainty about what is the overall economic activity going to look like. So kind of a first half -- kind of as we've been seeing recently in recent quarters, maybe a little bit modestly softer conditions in the back half.

正如克里斯在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們沒有看到潛在結果出現與 23 年時相同的變化。但總體經濟活動的情況仍存在一些不確定性。上半場的情況就像我們最近幾季所看到的那樣，後半場的情況可能會稍微溫和一些。

I wanted to follow up on capital allocation. Just given your strong free cash flow position, balance sheet is in good shape. Just thoughts on priorities and maybe speak to the M&A environment as well.

我想跟進資本配置。鑑於您強勁的自由現金流狀況，資產負債表狀況良好。只是對優先事項的思考，也許還牽涉到併購環境。

Garik, it's Chris. I'll take that. And then, Vic, if you wanted to add on a little bit on the M&A side. Yes, I mean, our approach to capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. I mean we invest back into the business first, where we see a lot of our highest returns. And then second, seek to grow by way of inorganic growth to create shareholder value and returning cash to shareholders continues to be our last priority, our third priority and we continue to flex with share repurchases. And as we've gone through our strategic planning and long-term planning for the business, we believe that there's value creation there. And following those disciplined capital allocation priority steps, they remain unchanged and believe that they're the best way to continue to deploy capital for the company.

加里克，我是克里斯。我會接受的。然後，Vic，如果您想在併購方面添加一些內容。是的，我的意思是，我們對資本配置優先事項的方法保持不變。我的意思是，我們首先投資回業務，在那裡我們看到了很多最高的回報。其次，尋求透過無機成長的方式成長，創造股東價值並向股東返還現金仍然是我們的最後一個優先事項，也是我們的第三個優先事項，我們將繼續靈活地進行股票回購。當我們對業務進行策略規劃和長期規劃時，我們相信那裡可以創造價值。遵循這些嚴格的資本配置優先步驟，他們保持不變，並相信這是繼續為公司部署資本的最佳方式。

Yes. And to Chris' point, our second priority is the use of free cash flow to bolt-on acquisitions that add capabilities to the Armstrong platform. to accelerate where we're trying to go and especially in this fragmented specialties category. We still believe there's lots of opportunity there. We continue to pursue those opportunities.

是的。對於克里斯的觀點，我們的第二個優先事項是利用自由現金流進行補強收購，並為阿姆斯壯平台增加功能。加速我們的目標，特別是在這個分散的專業類別中。我們仍然相信那裡有很多機會。我們將繼續尋求這些機會。

I would say we're very active. Our pipeline is very active and fluid. I think a lot of the questions that we get are around how interest rates and so forth may be affecting our pipeline. Again, a lot of these companies that we're working with or trying to get closer to, are not in a sale process. And so we're not affected really by interest rates or the interest rate environment. So we continue to build these relationships with targeted companies that we think would add a lot of value by being on the Armstrong platform, and we'll continue to build those third-party relationships with those that we think we don't need to own the assets, and we can use our capital else place. So we remain active. We still believe that there's a good set of opportunities for us to go faster in the Specialties segment through these acquisitions and we'll continue to build and build that pipeline and hopefully get some of those across the finish line.

我想說我們非常活躍。我們的管道非常活躍且流動。我認為我們收到的許多問題都圍繞著利率等可能如何影響我們的管道。同樣，我們正在合作或試圖接近的許多公司都沒有處於出售過程中。因此，我們並沒有真正受到利率或利率環境的影響。因此，我們將繼續與目標公司建立這些關係，我們認為這些公司可以透過阿姆斯壯平台增加很多價值，我們將繼續與那些我們認為不需要擁有的公司建立第三方關係資產，我們可以把我們的資本用在其他地方。所以我們保持活躍。我們仍然相信，透過這些收購，我們有很多機會可以在特種產品領域更快地發展，我們將繼續建立和建造該管道，並希望其中一些能夠跨越終點線。

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Philip Ng 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Strong finish. 2 years, so congrats on the team. So Vic, it's good to hear that demand is off to a pretty solid start in the first half. Any color on how orders and bidding activity have trended lately particularly in some of the more challenged end markets like office and retail, are you starting to see those activity are bottom out here? And you commented about how the back half could be a little more weaker. Is that informed by your customers? Or are you just kind of baking in some conservatism?

完成力強。 2年了，恭喜團隊。所以維克，很高興聽到上半年需求有一個相當強勁的開局。關於訂單和投標活動最近的趨勢，特別是在一些更具挑戰性的終端市場（如辦公室和零售），您是否開始看到這些活動已經觸底？你評論說後半部可能會更弱一些。這是您的客戶告知的嗎？或者你只是有點保守主義？

Yes. So first of all, Philip, on the bidding activity. Fourth quarter bidding activity was positive. And it was kind of choppy all throughout the last year as we reported in 2023. I would say overall bidding activity for the year was stable with the Q4, again, being positive. Interesting enough, as much as office gets talked about, I think it's worth noting that the office bidding activity positive in 2023 in both the number of projects and the value of projects.

是的。首先，菲利普，關於投標活動。第四季招標活動積極。正如我們在 2023 年報導的那樣，去年全年都有些波動。我想說，今年的整體投標活動保持穩定，第四季度再次表現積極。有趣的是，儘管辦公室被談論得很多，但我認為值得注意的是，2023 年辦公室招標活動無論是在項目數量還是項目價值上都是積極的。

We think this is another signal of this sector, in particular, stabilizing along with some of the other things that we talked about in our third quarter with leasing volumes increasing 14% in the quarter, the supply at the high end continues to get tighter, both in the Class A and A+ part of the marketplace, back-to-office mandates.

我們認為這是該行業的另一個信號，特別是與我們在第三季度談到的其他一些事情一起穩定，該季度租賃量增長了 14％，高端供應繼續趨緊，在A 級和A+ 級市場中，後台任務都是如此。

So 90% of the Fortune 100 employees are now back in the office, an average of 3 days a week. So there's lots of signs that are pointing to a stable office market in particular. And then that's, again, complemented by some additional strength that we're seeing in education and the retail in particular. So again, I would say overall, Phil, the market that we're experiencing in the back half of last year is what we're seeing so far, and again, it's very early in the year, but that's what we expect to see in the first half of this year.

因此，90% 的財富 100 強員工現在都回到了辦公室，平均每週工作 3 天。因此，有許多跡象顯示辦公市場尤其穩定。然後，我們在教育和零售領域看到的一些額外優勢再次補充了這一點。所以，我想說，總的來說，菲爾，我們去年下半年所經歷的市場就是我們迄今為止所看到的，再說一次，現在還很早，但這就是我們期望看到的今年上半年。

In the back half, and to the second part of your question. So I think, this is both informed by our customers who have less visibility in their backlogs into the back half of the year, although it's different than it was at the beginning of '23, where there was a lot more concern about the back half of the year, they're still -- it's still informed by our customers who have less comfort, I think, in their backlogs for the back half of the year. And again, that's where some of the indicators lagged would say, that's where some of the weakness could show up. Again, a lot of this is probably more on the discretionary side. So we'll have to get closer to the back half to see exactly what happens on the discretionary side of this, which, again, we have a lot less visibility on some of that smaller discretionary project work.

在後半部分，以及你問題的第二部分。所以我認為，這都是由我們的客戶告知的，他們對今年下半年的積壓訂單的了解較少，儘管這與 23 年初不同，當時人們對下半年有更多的擔憂今年下半年，他們仍然——我認為，我們的客戶仍然對今年下半年的積壓訂單感到不太放心。再說一次，這就是一些指標落後的地方，這就是一些弱點可能出現的地方。再說一次，其中很多可能更多是由自由裁量權決定的。因此，我們必須更接近後半部分，才能準確地了解在這方面的酌情處理方面發生了什麼，同樣，我們對一些較小的酌情處理專案工作的可見性要低得多。

Okay. That's incredible color, Vic. And then for your AS business, you're guiding to, call it, 6% to 9% growth in 2024. I believe roughly about 2 points of M&A, but nonetheless, that's pretty strong growth. So I'm just curious where you're seeing some of the strength from an end market standpoint? You certainly called out infrastructure and transportation being a big part of that. Any way to kind of help us parse out how big is that piece of the business for AS?

好的。那真是令人難以置信的顏色，維克。然後，對於您的 AS 業務，您將在 2024 年實現 6% 到 9% 的成長。我相信大約有 2 個百分點的併購，但儘管如此，這是相當強勁的成長。所以我很好奇，從終端市場的角度來看，您在哪裡看到了一些優勢？您當然指出基礎設施和交通是其中的重要組成部分。有什麼方法可以幫助我們分析 AS 的業務有多大嗎？

What I would point to, Phil, is the -- on the new construction side, if you recall, in the back half of 2022, we had pretty good new construction positive, new construction starts. We should benefit from that in 2024, continue to benefit from the lag of those new construction projects coming through. I think in the larger alteration projects, office and education, again, were positive. And I believe we're going to continue to see some of that benefit in both office and education. And you mentioned transportation. It's a relatively small from a square footage standpoint segment but it has big dollar opportunities when it comes to the Architectural Specialties segment. We remain very busy with our bidding activity there. We expect transportation to be a meaningful contributor to the overall Architectural Specialties segment growth in '24. And as I outlook, I think beyond.

菲爾，我要指出的是，在新建設方面，如果你還記得的話，在 2022 年下半年，我們有相當好的新建設積極情況，新建設開始。到2024年，我們應該從中受益，並繼續受益於新建設項目的滯後。我認為在較大的改建項目中，辦公室和教育再次是積極的。我相信我們將繼續在辦公室和教育領域看到一些好處。你還提到了交通。從平方英尺的角度來看，這是一個相對較小的細分市場，但在建築專業細分市場方面，它擁有巨大的美元機會。我們在那裡的投標活動仍然非常忙碌。我們預計交通運輸將成為 24 年建築專業領域整體成長的重要貢獻者。當我展望未來時，我會思考超越。

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

The first one is just on the comps in the first half in Mineral Fiber, in particular, I mean, they're a little bit tricky with, I think, a plus 9% in the first quarter. I think, on a volume load and then a minus 7% in the second quarter. How should we sort of think about those as we move into the first half of this year? And then along the same -- along similar lines, input cost inflation. There's a lot of moving pieces with energy and other items. How are you kind of thinking about that through the year?

第一個是關於礦物纖維上半年的比較，特別是，我的意思是，他們有點棘手，我認為第一季增加了 9%。我認為，在第二季的銷量負載上，負 7%。當我們進入今年上半年時，我們該如何思考這些問題？然後沿著同樣的——沿著類似的路線，投入成本通膨。有很多帶有能量和其他物品的移動部件。一年來你對此有何看法？

John, it's Chris. Thanks for the question. Yes, on the volumes in Mineral Fiber, so looking at first half, second half splits, we're guiding to Mineral Fiber volume being down in that low single-digit range with a little more softness in the back half than the front half, and that really nears the remarks that Vic made about the overall market. And you're right. First quarter, we're lapping a really strong comp of the first quarter of '23, where we saw some of that inventory build in retail. So a little bit of softness in Q1 and then kind of just the opposite in Q2 to the comp that you pointed out. But I'd overall say back half a little bit softer on the volume side than the first part of the year.

約翰，是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。是的，在礦物纖維的體積上，所以從前半部分和後半部分來看，我們指導礦物纖維的體積下降在低個位數範圍內，後半部分比前半部分更加柔軟，這確實接近維克對整個市場的評論。你是對的。第一季度，我們的業績與 23 年第一季相比非常強勁，我們看到零售業的一些庫存增加了。因此，第一季有點軟，然後第二季與您指出的比較相反。但整體而言，我認為下半年的成交量比今年上半年還要軟。

On input costs, you're right, we're basically out looking for full year total input cost inflation to be inflationary in the low single-digit range on a percentage basis and kind of break that out a little bit. Raw materials, we expect those to be inflationary, low single digits, freight to be slightly inflationary and then deflation in the area of energy driven primarily by nat gas. So again, total input cost inflation are in that low single-digit range for '24.

關於投入成本，你是對的，我們基本上是在尋找全年總投入成本通膨率在較低的個位數範圍內（按百分比計算），並稍微突破這一點。原材料方面，我們預計這些因素將出現通貨膨脹，且運費將小幅上漲，然後在主要由天然氣驅動的能源領域出現通貨緊縮。因此，24 年總投入成本通膨仍處於較低的個位數範圍內。

That's really helpful. Okay. And then maybe just taking a step back here. The Investor Day targets you guys outlined 2% to 4% Mineral Fiber growth. I mean 2024, the expectation is for it to be down low single digits. As we progress through this year, how should we sort of think about the drivers of the improvement in Mineral Fiber volume? And maybe as you see the cadence over the next couple of years, if possible?

這真的很有幫助。好的。然後也許只是退後一步。投資者日的目標是礦物纖維成長 2% 至 4%。我的意思是 2024 年，預計該數字將下降到低個位數。隨著今年的進展，我們該如何思考礦物纖維產量成長的驅動因素？如果可能的話，也許正如您所看到的未來​​幾年的節奏？

Yes, John, let me take that. I think that when we think about those, of course, the world kind of changed in '22 right after that Investor Day conference. But when you look back at the building blocks of that guidance, and we sit here today and look at those building blocks, they haven't changed. They really are the same building blocks. I think we've got to get to the stabilization of the market. We did outlook, one of the building blocks is a recovering commercial construction market. And so as we get on the other side of '24 and move into a more positive backdrop for commercial construction with lower interest rates and so forth.

是的，約翰，讓我接受。我認為，當我們思考這些問題時，當然，22 年投資者日會議之後世界就發生了變化。但是，當你回顧該指南的組成部分時，我們今天坐在這裡審視這些組成部分，它們並沒有改變。它們確實是相同的構建塊。我認為我們必須穩定市場。我們進行了展望，其中一個基石是商業建築市場的復甦。因此，當我們進入 24 世紀的另一邊並進入商業建築和較低利率等更積極的背景時。

I think then we start to see the materialization of one of the main building blocks there, which is the overall recovery of the commercial construction marketplace. Again -- and then our growth initiatives on top of that and then acquisitions are coming along the way. We think the building blocks are still there for positive Mineral Fiber volume growth, which is your specific question, but the other building blocks for overall profitable growth for the company.

我認為，我們開始看到那裡的主要組成部分之一的實現，即商業建築市場的整體復甦。再說一次，在此基礎上我們的成長計畫以及收購也在不斷進行。我們認為礦物纖維產量積極成長的基石仍然存在，這是您的具體問題，但公司整體利潤成長的其他基石仍然存在。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Congrats on a good quarter. My first question is thinking about your guide for Mineral Fiber volumes to be down low single digits, can you give us sense of how much of that is driven by the underlying market and the conditions that you've talked to relative to some of those organic initiatives and the benefits that are starting to come through from those?

恭喜季度表現良好。我的第一個問題是考慮您對礦物纖維產量下降低個位數的指導，您能否讓我們了解其中有多少是由基礎市場以及您所談論的相對於某些有機產品的條件驅動的舉措以及這些措施開始帶來的好處？

Yes, I'll take it. Okay. Susan, yes, the volume -- I think the way to think about the volume build on this is we have an overall, I think, softer level of economic activity that is going to impact the overall business. And I can -- across all of the verticals will be subject to lower levels of activity. So that's kind of the backdrop. We're going to partially offset some of that with our growth initiatives, like we did in '23. We feel really good about the progress and the traction we're getting there.

是的，我會接受的。好的。蘇珊，是的，是數量——我認為在此基礎上考慮數量的方法是，我認為，我們的整體經濟活動水平較疲軟，這將影響整體業務。我可以——所有垂直領域的活動都將受到較低的影響。這就是背景。我們將透過我們的成長計劃來部分抵消其中的一部分，就像我們在 23 年所做的那樣。我們對所取得的進展和所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

The other thing that is going to come out is some of this retail inventory build that we talked about all through 2023, and we were expecting some of that to come out in '24, didn't come out. And so we're factoring that also in coming out in '24. So you've got a couple of puts and takes there. It's not all market softness. Again, we're out looking at a modestly softer overall economic backdrop. And again, partially offset with our growth initiatives and then a little bit of headwind from some of this inventory coming back out of the system in '24. Does that help?

另一件即將出現的事情是我們在 2023 年一直在談論的一些零售庫存建設，我們預計其中一些將在 24 年出現，但沒有出現。所以我們在 24 年推出時也考慮到了這一點。所以你有一些看跌期權和看跌期權。這並不全是市場疲軟。我們再次看到整體經濟背景適度疲軟。再說一遍，部分抵消了我們的成長計劃，然後是一些庫存在 24 年從系統中返回帶來的一點阻力。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes. That is helpful. I mean we're trying to understand, it sounds like a lot of your organic initiatives have been gaining some nice momentum over the last couple of quarters and just how to think about the continued benefit of that over the coming quarters and where that can go relative to a softer market?

是的。這很有幫助。我的意思是，我們正在嘗試了解，聽起來你們的許多有機舉措在過去幾個季度中獲得了一些良好的勢頭，以及如何考慮在未來幾個季度中的持續效益以及可以走向何方相對於疲軟的市場？

Yes. So we expect that to continue -- that traction there to continue in '24 for sure.

是的。所以我們預計這種情況會持續下去——這種吸引力肯定會在 24 年繼續下去。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then turning to the Architectural Specialties margins. You're obviously continuing to make some really nice progress there, getting close to that 20%. As you think about the setup for year, how are you thinking about the ability to actually get to that 20% or really within striking distance of it? And what are maybe some of the puts and takes that could come through in terms of the margin in that segment?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向建築專業的邊緣。顯然，您在這方面繼續取得了一些非常好的進展，接近 20%。當您考慮今年的設定時，您如何考慮實際達到 20% 或真正接近 20% 的能力？就該細分市場的利潤率而言，可能會出現哪些看跌期權和看跌期權？

Yes. We're really within striking distance, right? I mean the path that we're on is very encouraging in terms of getting the operating leverage that we needed to see from the capital investments we're making in the business, as well as some of the SG&A that we were investing ahead of growth a couple of years back. So we're on the -- I'd say, a good path there to get the operating leverage there. And then our pricing initiatives, too. We're doing a good job in making sure that we're pricing projects the right way. We're getting some of the acquisitions on our pricing platform.

是的。我們真的就在攻擊距離之內，對吧？我的意思是，我們所走的道路非常令人鼓舞，因為我們從我們在業務中進行的資本投資以及我們在增長之前投資的一些銷售、管理和行政費用中獲得了所需的運營槓桿。幾年前。因此，我想說，我們正走在一條獲得營運槓桿的好道路上。然後是我們的定價舉措。我們在確保以正確的方式為專案定價方面做得很好。我們正在我們的定價平台上進行一些收購。

So those things that we're doing, and we demonstrated it for 2 years in a row now, that's what we have to continue to do in 2024. And we won't make any short-term bad decisions to artificially get there, I think that's the discipline that we're using. Some of these large airport projects that we talk about, one of the things that we did in '23 is -- and late '22 is we invested in some additional resources to create multifunctional teams to go after some of these larger complex projects. And that's an important flex that we were able to take so that we could better position ourselves for winning some of these large airport projects. If we see opportunities to do that, we're going to continue to do the right thing in the short term, for our business over the long term. But we're in striking distance, and we're pushing to get there. I really like the path that we're on.

因此，我們正在做的事情，以及我們已經連續兩年進行了展示，這就是我們在 2024 年必須繼續做的事情。而且我們不會人為地做出任何短期錯誤決定來實現這一目標，我我認為這就是我們正在使用的紀律。在我們談論的一些大型機場專案中，我們在 23 年所做的事情之一是 - 在 22 年後期，我們投資了一些額外的資源來創建多功能團隊來完成一些較大的複雜專案。這是我們能夠採取的一個重要的靈活性，以便我們能夠更好地定位自己，贏得一些大型機場專案。如果我們看到這樣做的機會，我們將繼續在短期內為我們的業務做正確的事情，從長遠來看。但我們已經距離目標很遠了，而且我們正在努力實現這一目標。我真的很喜歡我們現在所走的路。

And Susan, maybe just to call out too and build on that a little bit is -- in the appendix, we have the adjusted EBITDA margin assumptions for both Mineral Fiber and AS. And we're out looking about 19% EBITDA margin for AS and about 40% for Mineral Fiber.

蘇珊（Susan），也許只是想指出並以此為基礎——在附錄中，我們對礦物纖維和 AS 進行了調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率假設。我們預計 AS 的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 19%，礦物纖維的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 40%。

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Keith Hughes 和 Truist 的對話。

On the guide for Architectural Specialties, what's in the revenue guide. What's the breakout between organic and acquisition?

在建築專業指南上，收入指南中有哪些內容。有機和收購之間的突破是什麼？

Yes. Really, I'd say within the AS segment, we're guiding 6% to 9% on the top line with I'd say really minor contribution from inorganic on that. It's really the market and continued market penetration that's driving our growth and expected growth in '24.

是的。事實上，我想說的是，在 AS 領域，我們指導收入佔 6% 到 9%，我想說無機對此的貢獻很小。真正推動我們成長和 24 年預期成長的是市場和持續的市場滲透。

Okay. And one other question. You talked about there was an inventory adjustment amount in the fourth quarter. How much was that? What segment did that show up in?

好的。還有一個問題。您提到第四季有庫存調整金額。那是多少錢？這齣現在哪個片段？

On the -- you're referring to inventory valves?

關於－你指的是庫存閥門？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. It was small. It was small. If you remember back in 2023, we had in the first quarter, a pretty sizable valve impact and in the fourth quarter, it was a much smaller amount. About half of the input cost line on the bridge was valve related in Q4.

是的。它很小。它很小。如果你還記得 2023 年，我們在第一季受到了相當大的閥門影響，而在第四季度，影響量要小得多。第四季度，橋樑上大約一半的投入成本與閥門有關。

Our next question comes from the line of Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行 Rafe Jadrosich 的電話。

It's Ray, I just wanted to ask on the Mineral Fiber revenue guidance. What are you assuming for share gains, reperformance relative to the market in '24 and then it sounds like there was a mix headwind in '23. And Vic, you just mentioned to an earlier question that there's some expectation of retail destocking in '24. Do you expect the mix sort of headwinds to reverse in '24? Is there anything that's changed in your overall mix going forward?

我是雷，我只是想問礦物纖維收入指導。您對 24 年市場的份額成長和重新表現有何假設，然後聽起來 23 年出現了混合逆風。 Vic，您剛剛在先前的問題中提到，預計零售業將在 24 年去庫存。您預計這種混合逆風會在 24 年扭轉嗎？未來你們的整體組合有什麼改變嗎？

Yes. No, I think mix is going to be a positive contributor in '24 for a lot of the same reasons why it was a headwind in '23, which is this channel imbalance between the retail channel and some of our higher AUV channels. So yes, I think we expect some of that inventory to come out of the retail channel, which, again, brings it more back into the balance of our higher AUV, which allows then the product mix, which is ultimately the driver of our mix as a company is the product mix is able to shine through and contribute when the channels are better in balance.

是的。不，我認為混合將在 24 年成為一個積極的貢獻者，原因與它在 23 年成為逆風的原因有很多相同，即零售通路和我們一些較高 AUV 通路之間的通路不平衡。所以，是的，我認為我們預計其中一些庫存將來自零售通路，這再次將其更多地帶回到我們較高的 AUV 的平衡中，從而允許產品組合，這最終是我們組合的驅動力作為一家公司，當通路更加平衡時，產品組合就能脫穎而出並做出貢獻。

And hopefully, that makes sense. But that's one of the drivers of this business is 70% of our business is renovation work. And when architects and designers and building owners renovate, they don't put the old stuff back in, they put new stuff back in. So it naturally wants to mix up to higher value, higher performing products that's happened for over a decade, and we would expect that to happen for the next decade that this natural industry dynamic is going to continue. And that's what will begin to shine through in '24 again once these channels to come back into their proportional balance.

希望這是有道理的。但這是這項業務的驅動力之一，我們 70% 的業務是裝修工作。當建築師、設計師和業主翻新時，他們不會把舊的東西放回去，而是把新的東西放回去。所以它自然想要混合更高價值、更高性能的產品，這已經發生了十多年，我們預計，這種自然的產業動態將在未來十年內持續下去。一旦這些管道恢復到比例平衡，這將在 24 年再次開始顯現。

And then just on the share gain assumption for '24?

然後只考慮 24 年的份額增益假設？

Yes, we're not assuming any share gain in our assumption. Again, we're driving category expansion with our initiatives, and we're getting our share -- proportional share of that expansion. So the growth dynamics for us really around what the market is doing, offset by our positive contribution from growth initiatives.

是的，我們的假設中沒有假設任何份額收益。同樣，我們正在透過我們的舉措推動品類擴張，並且我們正在獲得我們的份額——擴張的比例份額。因此，我們的成長動力實際上圍繞著市場正在發生的事情，但卻被我們成長舉措的積極貢獻所抵消。

Okay. And then just on the Mineral Fiber margin assumptions. Can you just -- because natural gas prices have moved so margins have come down so much. Can you talk about the assumptions embedded in your guidance? What is sort of the tailwind from energy in '24? And then can you talk about the strategy around hedging going forward? Like what's rolling off there? And where are you resetting?

好的。然後是礦物纖維利潤率假設。你能不能——因為天然氣價格已經變動，所以利潤率下降了很多。您能談談您的指導中包含的假設嗎？ 24 年能源帶來的順風是什麼？那麼您能談談未來對沖的策略嗎？就像那裡正在發生什麼事？你在哪裡重置？

Chris, will you take that?

克里斯，你願意接受嗎？

Yes. So sure, remember, about 30% of our Mineral Fiber inputs are tied to raw materials, 10% freight, 10% energy. So as I shared earlier, raw materials were expecting inflation in the low single-digit range. Freight again, to be slightly inflationary, low single digits and then really a tailwind on deflation, largely driven by nat gas. And as we model that, we look at a bunch of different inputs to that, obviously, the NYMEX forward curve kind of shapes and influences that.

是的。所以請記住，我們大約 30% 的礦物纖維投入與原料相關，10% 與貨運相關，10%與能源相關。正如我之前分享的那樣，原材料預計通膨率將處於較低的個位數範圍內。貨運再次出現輕微通膨，低個位數，然後實際上是通貨緊縮的順風車，主要是由天然氣推動的。當我們建模時，我們會考慮一系列不同的輸入，顯然，紐約商業交易所遠期曲線的形狀和影響。

But again, looking back at recent history with nat gas, it's really hard to call and hard to peg, but we do have nat gas as a deflationary item in '24, and that's really driving that inventory -- that energy category. I'd say from a hedge position perspective, we have a little bit carried over into 2024, really immaterial when I think about it and to a much lesser extent than we had in terms of price locks in '23. Kind of that said, going forward, don't expect as much of a volatile nat gas environment as we saw in '22 and '23. So not looking to really hedge or do any price locking longer term.

但再次回顧天然氣的近期歷史，確實很難預測，也很難掛鉤，但我們確實在 24 年將天然氣作為通貨緊縮項目，這確實推動了庫存——能源類別。我想說，從對沖頭寸的角度來看，我們有一點延續到 2024 年，當我考慮到這一點時，這真的不重要，而且比我們 23 年的價格鎖定要小得多。話雖如此，展望未來，不要期望天然氣環境會像我們在 22 年和 23 年看到的那樣不穩定。因此，不希望真正對沖或長期鎖定價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color so far. Wanted to just talk a little bit about the inventory drawdown at the home centers. It's been discussed a bit already. But it looks like you didn't see it show up last year, you're expecting it again in 2024. I was just wondering if you could give us a sense for why it didn't show up as you expected over the last couple of quarters. And are you expecting this to materialize in the first quarter or some other time later in 2024 in your planning?

欣賞到目前為止所有的顏色。我想簡單談談家居中心的庫存縮減情況。已經討論過一些了。但看起來你去年沒有看到它出現，你期待 2024 年再次出現。我只是想知道你是否能讓我們了解為什麼它在過去的幾年裡沒有像你預期的那樣出現宿舍。您預計這會在第一季或您計劃中的 2024 年稍後的其他時間實現嗎？

No. I think this is really hard, as you know, Steve, for us to control or let alone and predict it for sure, let alone control it. But what we expect is -- we've just kind of sprinkle this in throughout the year that they'll come to some normalization around their inventories why these home centers is a good question.

不。我認為這真的很難，正如你所知，史蒂夫，我們很難控制它，更不用說預測它了，更不用說控制它了。但我們期望的是——我們只是在全年中進行一些補充，他們的庫存將達到一定程度的正常化，為什麼這些家庭中心是一個很好的問題。

It's a different answer for different home centers, but there's timing in which they are remerchandising their shelves around ceilings, for example. So that can drive a different behavior around inventory build across their stores. And again, we see that on the other side, too, when they draw them down in anticipation of a merchandising change. So it's kind of in line with what we see periodically with these home centers.

對於不同的家居中心來說，這是一個不同的答案，但例如，他們會在適當的時候重新推銷天花板周圍的架子。因此，這可以推動整個商店圍繞庫存建設採取不同的行為。再次，我們在另一方面也看到了這一點，當他們因預期商品銷售變化而降低價格時。所以這與我們定期在這些家庭中心看到的情況是一致的。

Sometimes they're out of phase with one another, and it's a little quieter and sometimes they're in phase with one another and we feel -- and we have to talk about it a little bit more. But it's really timing related and they do come to some normalization over time in their inventory channels with our good service and they're able to do that. So again, we've kind of -- we're not loading it into the first quarter. We don't expect that -- we expect that probably to just normalize over the transition from quarter-to-quarter throughout the year.

有時他們彼此不同相，而且會安靜一點，有時他們彼此同相，我們感覺 - 我們必須多談論一點。但這確實與時間相關，隨著時間的推移，透過我們良好的服務，他們的庫存管道確實達到了一定程度的正常化，他們能夠做到這一點。再說一遍，我們不會將其加載到第一季。我們預計這種情況不會發生——我們預計這種情況可能會在全年各季度的過渡過程中正常化。

Okay. That's helpful. Appreciate that. And then, Vic, you earlier talked about your investment in multifunctional teams that are required to really go after the more complex, longer -- larger projects in a better way, and you've attributed the success of that or those investments and the subsequent success to some of the great things that we've been seeing in our expect.

好的。這很有幫助。感謝。然後，Vic，您之前談到了對多功能團隊的投資，這些團隊需要以更好的方式真正追求更複雜、更長、更大的項目，並且您將這些投資的成功以及隨後的投資歸因於這些投資的成功。成功實現了我們所期待的一些偉大的事情。

But you then -- I think, to Ray's question, you said that you did not think that you sort of gain share. You're not like gaining share. And I just wanted to make sure that I'm understanding was that a remark around Mineral Fiber, just because maybe you can help us understand if you didn't take share, these sales that products that went -- that go into these more complex projects. They obviously previously were coming from somewhere, right? How are these multifunctional teams that you put together actually changed the way those projects are serviced, which has to your benefit. If you could just help us understand that a little bit better.

但你——我想，對於雷的問題，你說你不認為你獲得了份額。你不喜歡獲得份額。我只是想確保我理解的是關於礦物纖維的評論，只是因為如果您不分享的話，也許您可以幫助我們理解這些產品的銷售 - 進入這些更複雜的領域項目。他們之前顯然是從某個地方來的，對吧？您組建的這些多功能團隊實際上如何改變了這些專案的服務方式，這對您有利。如果您能幫助我們更好地理解這一點就好了。

Yes, Stephen, to be clear, Ray's question was around Mineral Fiber assumption around share gain in our Mineral Fiber build. So just to be clear, my answer to Ray's question was around we're not baking any share gain in our Mineral Fiber volume assumptions like we'll never do. We -- that's not how we build our Mineral Fiber volume plan.

是的，史蒂芬，要明確的是，雷的問題是圍繞我們礦物纖維構建中的份額增益的礦物纖維假設。因此，需要澄清的是，我對雷問題的回答是，我們不會像我們永遠不會做的那樣，在礦物纖維產量假設中增加任何份額。我們—這不是我們制定礦物纖維產量計劃的方式。

So just to be clear, that my answer was around Mineral Fiber volume. To your point, it's very different in Architectural Specialties. We are penetrating this segment. We are taking share in this segment. We have been for a number of years now. At these multifunctional teams that are just allowing us to leverage the entire portfolio that Armstrong brings to these projects.

需要明確的是，我的答案是圍繞著礦物纖維的體積。就您而言，建築專業的情況非常不同。我們正在滲透這個領域。我們正在這個領域佔據份額。我們已經這樣做很多年了。在這些多功能團隊中，我們能夠利用阿姆斯壯為這些專案帶來的整個產品組合。

There is no other company in the ceilings category that can offer the breadth of portfolio and now with our ProjectWorks design platform, there's lots of things that we can bring, and it really requires a multifunctional team to bring all of those attributes to bear on these large complex projects. So it's part of our competitive advantage that we're creating, but it's also the point of leverage for the unique attributes Armstrong can bring to these large projects. So we're really -- we're pleased with the traction these teams are getting and the effect it's having on our win rates in airport projects, large projects overall.

在天花板類別中沒有其他公司可以提供廣泛的產品組合，現在有了我們的 ProjectWorks 設計平台，我們可以帶來很多東西，並且確實需要一個多功能團隊來將所有這些屬性應用於這些大型複雜專案。因此，這是我們正在創造的競爭優勢的一部分，也是阿姆斯壯可以為這些大型項目帶來的獨特屬性的槓桿點。因此，我們真的對這些團隊所獲得的吸引力及其對機場專案和大型專案中標率的影響感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group.

我們的下一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的凱瑟琳·湯普森。

Just a clarification on volumes. You'd gave some color on quoting activity, but could you do the same in terms of cancellations? Are you seeing any change in an uptick or stasis as you've seen in the -- from the previous quarter?

只是對數量進行澄清。您對報價活動做了一些說明，但您能在取消方面做同樣的事情嗎？您是否看到與上一季相比有所上升或停滯的變化？

Yes, Kathryn. I think on the volume side in Mineral Fiber, we've been watching the cancellations, and these projects have been delayed or put on hold. But we've not seen a lot of cancellations. And I would say that has continued throughout 2023. And in fact, in Q4, when we look at -- we thought the market would soften a bit in Q4.

是的，凱瑟琳。我認為在礦物纖維的數量方面，我們一直在關注取消情況，這些項目已被推遲或擱置。但我們並沒有看到太多取消的情況。我想說，這種情況一直持續到 2023 年。事實上，在第四季度，當我們看到時，我們認為第四季度市場會稍微疲軟。

What we really saw was some of these projects that were on hold or in that discretionary bucket filled in some of the gaps in Q4 that kept the market kind of at a very stable level from Q3 to Q4. So I think to that point of not a lot of canceled projects keeps them in the wings when they're on hold so that they can be pulled forward or pulled into the system as there's capacity and a willingness to do so.

我們真正看到的是一些被擱置或可自由支配的項目填補了第四季度的一些空白，使市場從第三季到第四季保持在非常穩定的水平。因此，我認為，到目前為止，並沒有很多被取消的項目在擱置時讓它們處於等待狀態，這樣它們就可以在有能力和意願的情況下被拉向前或拉入系統。

And also just as a clarification. Did Q4 see any benefit from the timing from Big Box that had been a factor in for certain quarters early in 2024?

也只是作為澄清。 Big Box 的時機是 2024 年初某些季度的一個因素，第四季度是否看到了任何好處？

Well, there was a little strength in the retail channel that drove some of that mix that we talked about earlier. Again, that relative strength is relative to the other channels. So I wouldn't say -- I wouldn't put a lot of activity in the channel, but relatively, it was stronger than some of the other higher AUV channels that drove that mix. So not a lot of additional inventory build, if you will, in the quarter for us to point to, to say that, that was a big driver of the overall improvement.

嗯，零售通路的一點力量推動了我們之前討論過的一些組合。同樣，這種相對強度是相對於其他管道而言的。所以我不會說——我不會在該渠道中投入大量活動，但相對而言，它比其他一些推動該組合的更高 AUV 渠道更強。因此，如果你願意的話，我們可以指出，在本季度，沒有太多額外的庫存增加，這是整體改善的一大推動力。

Okay. And then finally on WAVE, could you outline some of the factors driving your projections for 2024 with WAVE? And how much of that is driven by core market growth versus just other fundamental changes or growth initiatives in WAVE?

好的。最後，關於 WAVE，您能否概述一下推動您對 2024 年 WAVE 進行預測的一些因素？其中有多少是由核心市場成長推動的，而不是 WAVE 的其他根本性變化或成長措施？

Yes, Kathryn, I think the way to think about the WAVE business and the way we're modeling the WAVE business is very similar to the overall market conditions that our Mineral Fiber business sees, right? We do sell grid and ceiling tiles as a package through our distribution. So the overall market backdrop and market assumption is virtually the same for our grid business. So I think you can factor the volume side of that.

是的，Kathryn，我認為思考 WAVE 業務的方式以及我們對 WAVE 業務建模的方式與我們礦物纖維業務所看到的整體市場狀況非常相似，對吧？我們確實透過我們的經銷商將網格和天花板瓷磚作為包裝出售。因此，我們的電網業務的整體市場背景和市場假設實際上是相同的。所以我認為你可以考慮其中的體積方面。

What could be a little bit different in that business is the pricing ahead of steel inflation is something that our team does really well to watch what's happening with steel commodities. And so that can move their sales and, of course, their margins based on how well they do. And they have a really strong track record of doing a great job of staying ahead of steel inflation to protect their margins. That's kind of how we've modeled it going forward is that they're going to continue to stay ahead of inflation with their price initiatives and the volumes they'll experience are very similar to what we're expecting on the Mineral Fiber volumes side.

這項業務可能有點不同的是，我們的團隊非常擅長觀察鋼鐵商品的走勢，從而在鋼鐵通膨之前進行定價。因此，這可以改變他們的銷售額，當然，也可以根據他們的表現來改變他們的利潤。他們在領先鋼鐵通膨以保護利潤方面有著非常出色的記錄。這就是我們未來的建模方式，他們將繼續透過價格舉措保持領先於通膨，並且他們將經歷的銷售與我們對礦物纖維銷售的預期非常相似。

Our final question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten with Zelman.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Adam Baumgarten 和 Zelman 的對話。

Just a question on Mineral Fiber volumes. If we look at the back half of '23, how do you think your volumes performed versus the broader market? And then also, were there any notable market share shifts within any channels last year?

只是關於礦物纖維卷的問題。如果我們看看 23 年下半年，您認為與大盤相比，您的交易量表現如何？另外，去年任何通路內的市佔率是否發生了顯著的變化？

Well, I think our growth initiatives really contributed in the back half as we talked about, Adam, I think the market was down low single digits which was better than what we -- less worse, if you will, than we expected right in the back half. And I think we certainly offset a good portion of that market softness with our growth initiatives. And so I think that's what we expect to continue going into 2024.

嗯，我認為我們的成長舉措確實在後半段做出了貢獻，正如我們所談論的，亞當，我認為市場下降了低個位數，這比我們的情況要好——如果你願意的話，比我們預期的要好一些。後半段。我認為我們的成長舉措肯定可以抵消市場疲軟的很大一部分。所以我認為這就是我們期望在 2024 年繼續保持的情況。

Okay. Got it. And then just on the AUV guidance. Does that assume the typical 2 price increases throughout the year in Mineral Fiber?

好的。知道了。然後就是 AUV 引導。這是否假設礦物纖維全年價格通常會上漲 2 次？

Yes. We're getting back to our normal cadence of twice a year price increases. And again, remember, AUV is both price, like-for-like pricing that comes from these 2 price increases you're referencing, but also the mix component of that. So -- which we talked about earlier on the call that we expect mix to be a positive contributor to AUV this year.

是的。我們正在恢復每年兩次提價的正常節奏。再次強調，AUV 既是來自您所引用的這兩個價格上漲的同類定價，也是其中的混合組成部分。因此，我們早些時候在電話會議上談到，我們預計 mix 將為今年的 AUV 做出積極貢獻。

I would now like to turn the call over to Vic Grizzle for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉給維克·格里茲爾 (Vic Grizzle) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, and thank you all for joining, and thank you for your questions today. We're very proud of the team's results this quarter, obviously, and we look forward to updating you again in April on our progress. Thank you, and have a nice day.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家的加入，也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。顯然，我們對團隊本季的業績感到非常自豪，我們期待在四月再次向您通報我們的進展。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。