Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q1 2023 Armstrong World Industries, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Theresa Womble, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加 Armstrong World Industries, Inc. 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業傳播副總裁 Theresa Womble。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our call.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎大家撥打我們的電話。

On today's call, Vic Grizzle, our CEO; and Chris Calzaretta, our CFO, will discuss Armstrong World Industries' first quarter 2023 results and our 2023 outlook. To accompany these remarks, we have provided a presentation that is available on the Investors section of our website.

在今天的電話會議上，我們的首席執行官維克·格里茲爾 (Vic Grizzle) 表示：我們的首席財務官 Chris Calzaretta 將討論 Armstrong World Industries 的 2023 年第一季度業績和我們的 2023 年展望。為了配合這些評論，我們在我們網站的投資者部分提供了一份演示文稿。

Our discussion of operating and financial performance will include non-GAAP measures within the meaning of SEC Reg G. A reconciliation of these measures, with the most directly comparable GAAP measure, is included in the earnings press release and in the appendix of the presentation we issued this morning. Both again, are available on the Investors section of our website.

我們對運營和財務業績的討論將包括 SEC Reg G 含義內的非 GAAP 衡量標準。這些衡量標準與最直接可比的 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬包含在收益新聞稿和演示文稿的附錄中。今天早上發布的。兩者均可在我們網站的投資者部分找到。

During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that represent the view we have of our financial and operational performance as of today's date, April 25, 2023. These statements involve risks and opportunities that may differ materially from those expected or implied. We provide a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties in our SEC filings included with the 10-Q filed earlier this morning. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement beyond what is required by applicable securities law.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，代表我們對截至今天（2023 年 4 月 25 日）的財務和運營業績的看法。這些陳述涉及的風險和機遇可能與預期或暗示的風險和機遇存在重大差異。我們在今天上午早些時候提交的 10-Q 中包含的 SEC 文件中詳細討論了風險和不確定性。我們不承擔更新任何超出適用證券法要求的前瞻性聲明的義務。

And now I'll turn the call over to Vic.

現在我會把電話轉給維克。

Thank you, Theresa, and good morning, and thank you all for joining our call today.

謝謝特蕾莎，早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

The results we reported this morning represent a solid start to 2023 as our team successfully executed on our strategic initiatives and controlled costs against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Our consolidated net sales increased 10% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA grew 9% and adjusted free cash flow increased more than 50%.

我們今天早上報告的結果代表了 2023 年的良好開端，因為我們的團隊在經濟不確定的背景下成功執行了戰略舉措並控制了成本。我們的綜合淨銷售額同比增長 10%，調整後 EBITDA 增長 9%，調整後自由現金流增長超過 50%。

Our Mineral Fiber segment was a key contributor to the good start with double-digit sales and adjusted EBITDA growth as well as adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 20 basis points. We delivered 9% Mineral Fiber volume growth in the quarter, largely due to a recovery in sales following what was a challenging first quarter of 2022. As you will recall, in the first quarter of 2022, several of our distribution partners were reducing inventories after a period of accumulating higher levels of inventory in anticipation of improving market conditions as well as to buffer against supply chain disruptions and persistent inflationary pressures.

我們的礦物纖維部門是實現兩位數銷售額、調整後 EBITDA 增長以及調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張 20 個基點的良好開端的關鍵因素。我們在本季度實現了 9% 的礦物纖維銷量增長，這主要是由於在 2022 年充滿挑戰的第一季度之後銷售出現復甦。您可能還記得，在 2022 年第一季度，我們的一些分銷合作夥伴在 2022 年第一季度之後減少了庫存這是一個積累較高庫存水平的時期，以期改善市場狀況並緩衝供應鏈中斷和持續的通脹壓力。

We believe first quarter sales this year in this channel were strong versus that weak comparison and have returned to more normal patterns that are consistent with maintaining historical inventory levels. This is also true for sales of our ceiling grid products from our WAVE joint venture, and we were pleased with the 14% earnings growth achieved in the quarter from our WAVE joint venture.

我們認為，今年第一季度該渠道的銷售強勁，與疲弱的比較相比，已經恢復到與維持歷史庫存水平一致的更正常模式。我們的 WAVE 合資企業的天花板網格產品的銷售也是如此，我們對 WAVE 合資企業本季度實現 14% 的盈利增長感到高興。

Architectural Specialties had a slower start to 2023 with year-over-year sales growth of 3% and a $1 million decline in adjusted EBITDA. We experienced lower sales growth in the quarter tied to lower order intake in the fourth quarter of 2022, compounded by additional project delays in the quarter. All this against a strong performance quarter last year that had 26% sales growth as projects that had been delayed throughout 2021 moved forward as supply chain and labor constraints throughout the commercial construction industry had improved.

Architectural Specialties 到 2023 年開局較慢，銷售額同比增長 3%，調整後 EBITDA 下降 100 萬美元。我們本季度的銷售增長較低，這與 2022 年第四季度的訂單量減少有關，再加上本季度的額外項目延遲，情況更加複雜。所有這些都與去年季度的強勁業績形成鮮明對比，該季度的銷售增長了 26%，因為隨著整個商業建築行業的供應鍊和勞動力限制的改善，整個 2021 年被推遲的項目得以推進。

Even with the slow start, we remain comfortable with our full year outlook in our Specialty segment. This comfort is driven primarily by the continuation of strong bidding activity across all our verticals with notable strength in transportation and healthcare end markets. There appears to be more and larger projects out there tied to the infrastructure bill that have schedules into 2024 and beyond, and this bodes well for our Architectural Specialty products.

儘管開局緩慢，我們對特種業務的全年前景仍然感到滿意。這種舒適感主要是由於我們所有垂直領域持續強勁的投標活動所推動，其中在運輸和醫療保健終端市場的實力顯著。似乎有越來越多、規模更大的項目與基礎設施法案相關，這些項目的時間表到 2024 年及以後，這對我們的建築專業產品來說是個好兆頭。

We're also encouraged that our increasingly diverse product portfolio is providing additional demand from new spaces in commercial buildings. This is driving solid order intake for product categories like Tectum, felt, wood and metal.

我們還感到鼓舞的是，我們日益多樣化的產品組合正在為商業建築的新空間提供額外的需求。這推動了 Tectum、毛氈、木材和金屬等產品類別的穩定訂單量。

All in all, while we're pleased with how we started 2023, we remain cautious for the balance of the year. We continue to see challenges ahead for the commercial construction market, and we know we must remain focused on execution and cost management to deliver our outlook of solid top line growth with margin expansion across both segments. Our current view remains that market demand for the full year will be challenged. We continue to expect a mild recession to occur in the second half of the year, although the exact timing and duration remains uncertain. We also see continued weakness where return to office activity has stalled and in some sectors of the economy that have slowed their investments.

總而言之，雖然我們對 2023 年的開局感到滿意，但我們對今年剩餘時間仍持謹慎態度。我們繼續看到商業建築市場面臨的挑戰，我們知道我們必須繼續專注於執行和成本管理，以實現我們在兩個領域的利潤率擴張和收入穩健增長的前景。我們目前的觀點仍然是全年市場需求將受到挑戰。我們仍然預計今年下半年將出現溫和衰退，但具體時間和持續時間仍不確定。我們還看到，辦公活動恢復停滯以及某些經濟領域投資放緩，經濟持續疲軟。

These factors, along with escalating interest rates have pressured the office vertical more than others. Now that said, it's a fair reminder that the office vertical represents less than 1/3 of our Mineral Fiber segment revenue.

這些因素以及不斷上升的利率給辦公室垂直行業帶來的壓力比其他行業更大。話雖如此，這是一個公平的提醒，辦公垂直領域僅占我們礦物纖維部門收入的不到 1/3。

More broadly, overall bidding activity did turn positive in the quarter with pockets of strength in areas like transportation and municipal spending with investments in airports, metro stations and convention centers. Health care is also an active area along with education, and data centers. While it's too early to conclude anything from this positive level of activity, the stabilization of demand that can occur from the diversity of end markets and how it can dampen demand in a downturn is noteworthy.

更廣泛地說，本季度整體招標活動確實轉為積極，交通和市政支出等領域表現強勁，對機場、地鐵站和會議中心的投資也有所增加。醫療保健以及教育和數據中心也是一個活躍的領域。雖然現在就這種積極的活動水平得出任何結論還為時過早，但終端市場的多樣性可能帶來的需求穩定以及它如何在低迷時期抑制需求值得注意。

While we continue to face a challenging and uncertain backdrop, we remain focused on what we can control, like how we manage our plans to achieve quality and productivity, our overall cost structure, our innovation efforts and our investments for future growth. As we announced in February, we've made some difficult decisions around trimming our costs and reprioritizing certain investments in light of market weakness and we will remain disciplined with all of our discretionary spending.

雖然我們繼續面臨充滿挑戰和不確定的背景，但我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，例如我們如何管理我們的計劃以實現質量和生產力、我們的整體成本結構、我們的創新努力以及我們對未來增長的投資。正如我們在二月份宣布的那樣，鑑於市場疲軟，我們在削減成本和重新確定某些投資的優先順序方面做出了一些艱難的決定，並且我們將繼續嚴格控制所有可自由支配的支出。

As we move forward, what I've been very impressed with so far this year is how our teams have embraced our mission to deliver profitable growth with expanding margins and strong cash flow generation. The work our teams are accomplishing is notable and is helping us set up for long-term success. This includes our production teams who have done a tremendous work to exceed their productivity targets in the quarter, continuing the strong performance they delivered in 2022. Our sales teams in a new structure have also worked hard to achieve both our volume and pricing goals. And we're also pleased to share that our business development team remains active with good activity in the pipeline.

隨著我們不斷前進，今年到目前為止，令我印象深刻的是我們的團隊如何履行我們的使命，即通過不斷擴大的利潤率和強勁的現金流產生來實現盈利增長。我們的團隊正在完成的工作引人注目，正在幫助我們取得長期成功。這包括我們的生產團隊，他們在本季度付出了巨大的努力，超越了生產力目標，延續了 2022 年的強勁業績。新結構中的銷售團隊也努力實現我們的銷量和定價目標。我們還很高興地告訴大家，我們的業務開發團隊仍然保持活躍，正在進行良好的活動。

Progress has also continued across our key growth initiatives. With our automated design service project works, we remain focused on making the project design process as efficient as possible to the benefit of architects, designers and contractors. We're expanding this automated service by including more and more of our product portfolio in this tool. And we are now able to offer the services earlier in the process to help architects and designers match their conceptual ideas of design with the best product solutions. We're currently on track to double the number of projects using Project Works this year.

我們的主要增長計劃也持續取得進展。通過我們的自動化設計服務項目工作，我們仍然致力於使項目設計過程盡可能高效，以造福於建築師、設計師和承包商。我們正在通過將越來越多的產品組合納入此工具來擴展此自動化服務。我們現在能夠在流程的早期提供服務，幫助建築師和設計師將他們的設計理念與最佳產品解決方案相匹配。目前，我們今年有望將使用 Project Works 的項目數量增加一倍。

Our online sales platform, Canopy by Armstrong, also had a strong start to 2023 with strong increases across all key metrics. We continue to be very pleased with our progress with this unique offering for our category, and with the validation that we can find and serve new customers through this digital platform.

我們的在線銷售平台 Canopy by Armstrong 在 2023 年也取得了良好的開局，所有關鍵指標均出現強勁增長。我們仍然對我們在這一類別的獨特產品方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，並且我們可以通過這個數字平台找到並服務新客戶。

And last, we continue to further develop our Healthy Spaces initiative while increasing sales growth in our Healthy Spaces product portfolio. We continue to fine-tune our value proposition around total indoor environmental quality, which includes air, temperature, sound and light, and we do this -- as we do this, we are seeing some promising opportunities and a connection between these attributes and Ceiling Solutions that improve the overall [health] and sustainability of a building. It is still early days, but it's increasingly clear that ceilings have an important role to play in healthy, sustainable buildings of the future.

最後，我們繼續進一步發展我們的健康空間計劃，同時提高健康空間產品組合的銷售增長。我們繼續圍繞整體室內環境質量（包括空氣、溫度、聲音和光線）微調我們的價值主張，並且我們這樣做 - 當我們這樣做時，我們看到了一些有前途的機會以及這些屬性與天花板之間的聯繫改善建築物整體[健康]和可持續性的解決方案。現在還處於早期階段，但越來越明顯的是，天花板在未來健康、可持續的建築中發揮著重要作用。

Now let me pause there for a moment and let Chris provide some additional details on the quarterly financials. Chris?

現在讓我暫停一下，讓克里斯提供一些有關季度財務狀況的額外細節。克里斯？

Thanks, Vic, and good morning to everyone on the call.

謝謝維克，祝所有參加電話會議的人早上好。

As a reminder, throughout my remarks, I'll be referring to the slides available on our website, and Slide 3, which details our basis of presentation.

提醒一下，在我的整個發言中，我將參考我們網站上提供的幻燈片以及幻燈片 3，其中詳細介紹了我們的演示基礎。

On Slide 6, we discuss our Mineral Fiber segment results. Mineral Fiber sales growth of 12% was driven by 9% volume growth and 3% AUV growth. As Vic mentioned, the increased volumes was largely due to the weaker prior year period. Additionally, our home center sales channel outperformed the prior year as inventory levels increased in this channel during the quarter. These home center inventory levels can fluctuate and are typically timing in nature and can cause the lumpiness in our volume results quarter-to-quarter. Rounding out the volume drivers in the first quarter, our growth initiatives, led by digital and an extra shipping day, contributed 3 points of growth, more than offsetting the impact of a softer market in the quarter.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們討論了礦物纖維部門的結果。礦物纖維銷售額增長 12%，主要得益於 9% 的銷量增長和 3% 的 AUV 增長。正如維克所提到的，銷量增加主要是由於去年同期的疲軟。此外，我們的家居中心銷售渠道的表現優於去年，因為該渠道的庫存水平在本季度有所增加。這些家居中心的庫存水平可能會波動，並且通常是定時的，可能會導致我們的季度銷量結果出現波動。除了第一季度的銷量驅動因素外，我們以數字化和額外發貨日為主導的增長舉措貢獻了 3 個百分點的增長，遠遠抵消了本季度市場疲軟的影響。

Mineral Fiber AUV of 3% was driven by positive like-for-like price partially offset by unfavorable mix. Geographic mix was the biggest headwind this quarter as markets with lower AUVs generally outperform markets with higher AUVs. And to a lesser extent, we saw product mix headwind within the home center channel. We believe these mix headwinds are temporary.

礦物纖維 AUV 為 3%，是由積極的同類價格推動的，但部分被不利的組合所抵消。地理組合是本季度最大的阻力，因為 AUV 較低的市場通常優於 AUV 較高的市場。在較小程度上，我們看到家居中心渠道內產品組合的逆風。我們認為這些混合阻力是暫時的。

Mineral Fiber segment adjusted EBITDA grew by $10 million or 13%, and EBITDA margin expanded by 20 basis points compared to the prior year, led by the volume benefits that I just mentioned. Favorable AUV fell through at near historic levels despite the mix headwind. Our plants had a good start to the year and exceeded their productivity targets in the quarter. WAVE equity earnings were also favorable as compared to the prior year, driven by lower steel costs flowing through the P&L and higher volumes. Recall that WAVE also had a weaker volume comparison due to the inventory level reductions in the prior year period.

礦物纖維部門調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 1000 萬美元，即 13%，而 EBITDA 利潤率與上一年相比增長了 20 個基點，這主要得益於我剛才提到的銷量效益。儘管存在混合阻力，有利的 AUV 仍跌至接近歷史水平。我們的工廠今年開局良好，本季度超出了生產力目標。受損益表中鋼鐵成本下降和產量增加的推動，WAVE 股權收益也較上年有利。回想一下，由於去年同期庫存水平下降，WAVE 的銷量比較也較弱。

Offsetting these gains were higher input costs and SG&A expenses as we continue to invest in our digital initiatives.

隨著我們繼續投資於數字化計劃，投入成本和銷售、管理及行政費用的增加抵消了這些收益。

Turning to input costs. On our February earnings call, we outlooked an expected first quarter headwind related to inventory valuation. This inventory valuation impact for the quarter was $6 million and largely in line with what we expected. We anticipate a minimal inventory valuation impact for the rest of the year. The remainder of the input cost headwind in the quarter was driven by continued raw material inflation.

轉向投入成本。在我們二月份的財報電話會議上，我們預計第一季度將出現與庫存估值相關的不利因素。本季度庫存估值影響為 600 萬美元，基本符合我們的預期。我們預計今年剩餘時間對庫存估值的影響最小。本季度剩餘的投入成本逆風是由持續的原材料通脹推動的。

Energy costs, specifically electricity, were still inflationary, but were not a material driver of the total input cost inflation versus the prior year.

能源成本，特別是電力成本，仍然存在通脹，但與上一年相比，並不是總投入成本通脹的實質性驅動因素。

Despite these headwinds, Mineral Fiber adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 20 basis points in the quarter.

儘管存在這些不利因素，礦物纖維調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在本季度仍擴大了 20 個基點。

While on the topic of energy costs, I'd like to give a little more context to our natural gas exposure. We don't normally hedge natural gas and typically pay market rates for our supply. But given the volatility over the past year in natural gas prices, we have recently decided to lock in pricing for a portion of our natural gas needs with our current suppliers. We did this to add a level of stability to our cost structure, thereby derisking some of our natural gas exposure in 2023.

在談到能源成本的話題時，我想為我們的天然氣暴露提供更多背景信息。我們通常不對天然氣進行對沖，通常按市場價格支付我們的供應。但考慮到過去一年天然氣價格的波動，我們最近決定與現有供應商鎖定部分天然氣需求的價格。我們這樣做是為了增加我們的成本結構的穩定性，從而降低 2023 年我們的部分天然氣風險。

On Slide 7, we discuss our Architectural Specialties or AS segment results. Despite increased sales across most product categories, the segment saw a slowing of the rate of growth, partially driven by a slowdown in shorter lead time orders received in the fourth quarter, primarily with our metal products. We also faced unfavorable project timing and a strong prior year comparison. Despite the softer top line result this quarter, current order intake and backlogs remain supportive of our outlook for 2023.

在幻燈片 7 上，我們討論了建築專業或 AS 部門的結果。儘管大多數產品類別的銷售額有所增加，但該部門的增長速度有所放緩，部分原因是第四季度收到的較短交貨時間訂單（主要是我們的金屬產品）放緩。我們還面臨著不利的項目時機和與去年的強烈對比。儘管本季度營收疲軟，但當前的訂單量和積壓訂單仍然支持我們對 2023 年的展望。

Adjusted EBITDA margin took a step down and was negatively affected by softer sales levels as this segment can be more impacted by lumpiness associated with project timing. We continue to manage costs as we scale and grow this segment.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率有所下降，並受到銷售水平疲軟的負面影響，因為該細分市場更容易受到與項目時間相關的波動的影響。隨著我們擴大和發展這一細分市場，我們將繼續管理成本。

Slide 8 shows our consolidated company metrics in which volume gains from Mineral Fiber segment, favorable AUV and favorable WAVE equity earnings more than offset inventory valuation impacts, raw material inflation and higher SG&A expense. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share increased 10% versus the prior year, in line with adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted free cash flow increased $10 million or about 50% versus prior year, and you'll see those drivers as we move to Slide 9.

第 8 張幻燈片顯示了我們的綜合公司指標，其中礦物纖維部門的銷量增長、有利的 AUV 和有利的 WAVE 股權收益足以抵消庫存估值影響、原材料通脹和較高的 SG&A 費用。調整後稀釋每股淨利潤較上年增長 10%，與調整後 EBITDA 一致。調整後的自由現金流比上一年增加了 1000 萬美元，即增加了約 50%，當我們轉到幻燈片 9 時，您就會看到這些驅動因素。

Slide 9 shows first quarter adjusted free cash flow performance versus the prior year. The $10 million increase was driven by working capital improvement, primarily driven by inventories and an increase in WAVE dividends. This was partially offset by higher CapEx and higher cash interest. We are pleased to see year-over-year improvement as cash flow generation remains a strong focus for us in 2023 and key to our ability to fund all of our capital allocation priorities.

幻燈片 9 顯示了第一季度調整後的自由現金流與上年相比的表現。 1000 萬美元的增長是由營運資金改善推動的，主要是由庫存和 WAVE 股息增加推動的。這被較高的資本支出和較高的現金利息部分抵消。我們很高興看到同比有所改善，因為現金流生成仍然是我們 2023 年的重點關注點，也是我們為所有資本配置優先事項提供資金的能力的關鍵。

One of those priorities is returning excess cash to shareholders, and we continue to deliver on this in the first quarter, repurchasing $27 million of shares. Since the inception of the share repurchase program in 2016, we have repurchased a total of 12.8 million shares for about $878 million.

其中一個優先事項是將多餘現金返還給股東，我們在第一季度繼續實現這一目標，回購了 2700 萬美元的股票。自2016年股票回購計劃啟動以來，我們已回購了總計1,280萬股股票，耗資約8.78億美元。

As shown on Slide 10, we are maintaining our full year 2023 guidance. As you recall, we took actions in the first quarter to trim our workforce in response to anticipated market conditions and these actions are expected to generate full-year savings of about $6 million. We remain on track to deliver these savings. We also remain committed to driving sales growth in the range of 2% to 6% and adjusted EBITDA growth in the range of 3% to 9%. And as I just mentioned, we are focused on achieving another year of meaningful cash flow generation with guidance midpoint expectations, providing a healthy 19% adjusted free cash flow margin despite a difficult market backdrop.

如幻燈片 10 所示，我們維持 2023 年全年指引。您還記得，我們​​在第一季度採取了裁員行動，以應對預期的市場狀況，這些行動預計將為全年節省約 600 萬美元。我們仍有望實現這些節省。我們還繼續致力於推動銷售增長 2% 至 6%，調整後 EBITDA 增長 3% 至 9%。正如我剛才提到的，我們的重點是實現又一年有意義的現金流生成和指導中點預期，儘管市場背景困難，但仍提供 19% 的調整後自由現金流利潤率。

Additional assumptions are available in the appendix to this presentation.

本演示文稿的附錄中提供了其他假設。

And now I'll turn it back to Vic for some additional thoughts before we take your questions.

現在，在回答您的問題之前，我將把它轉回給維克，以徵求一些額外的想法。

Thanks, Chris. Before we get to your questions, I'd like to take a step back from the results and our near-term outlook to reflect on the core attributes of Armstrong that are foundational to our resilience and our ability to be a consistent cash flow generator throughout economic cycles. As America's only focused ceilings and specialty wall company, serving the commercial construction industry, we operate in an attractive category where we have unique competitive advantages, including the largest portfolio and production footprint in North America, and the largest and best exclusive distribution network in the industry.

謝謝，克里斯。在回答您的問題之前，我想先回顧一下結果和我們的近期前景，反思一下阿姆斯特朗的核心屬性，這些屬性是我們的韌性和始終如一的現金流生成器的基礎。經濟周期。作為美國唯一專注於天花板和特種牆體公司，服務於商業建築行業，我們在一個有吸引力的類別中運營，擁有獨特的競爭優勢，包括北美最大的產品組合和生產足跡，以及北美最大、最好的獨家分銷網絡。行業。

In addition, it's a category where our customers and our end-users highly value our product innovation, service and quality. We also serve a diverse set of end markets as acoustical ceiling tiles are ubiquitous in commercial buildings. These include education, health care, retail, transportation, data centers, and of course, offices. We believe our expansion in Architectural Specialties has further diversified our product portfolio and made us even more important and relevant to the A&D community by getting us into more states and spaces.

此外，在這一類別中，我們的客戶和最終用戶高度重視我們的產品創新、服務和質量。我們還服務於多元化的終端市場，因為隔音天花板在商業建築中無處不在。其中包括教育、醫療保健、零售、交通、數據中心，當然還有辦公室。我們相信，我們在建築專業領域的擴張進一步豐富了我們的產品組合，並通過讓我們進入更多的州和空間，使我們對 A&D 社區變得更加重要和相關。

As mentioned earlier, the portfolio effect of having this diversity is unique in its effective trading stability in all parts of the cycle. It's very unusual to see all verticals move up or down at the same time and this serves to dampen sales in an up cycle and dampen sales in downturns. This creates stability in our earnings stream and is one of the reasons we can consistently generate cash through all parts of the economic cycle. Again, a key attribute of the AWI story.

如前所述，這種多樣性所帶來的投資組合效應是獨一無二的，因為它在周期的各個部分都具有有效的交易穩定性。所有垂直行業同時上升或下降的情況非常罕見，這會抑制上升週期中的銷售，並抑制下降週期中的銷售。這創造了我們收入流的穩定性，也是我們能夠在經濟周期的各個階段持續產生現金的原因之一。這又是 AWI 故事的一個關鍵特徵。

Another core attribute of Armstrong is our ability to drive AUV growth in our Mineral Fiber business. Over the last 10 years, we've delivered a 5% AUV CAGR, even through the challenges of COVID. Looking further back, we achieved positive AUV growth during the great financial crisis. With our step-up in innovation around sustainability in Healthy Spaces and our commitment to best-in-class service levels, we expect to continue to grow AUV well into the future.

阿姆斯壯的另一個核心屬性是我們推動礦物纖維業務 AUV 增長的能力。過去 10 年，即使面臨新冠疫情的挑戰，我們的 AUV 複合年增長率仍達到 5%。回顧過去，我們在金融危機期間實現了 AUV 的正增長。隨著我們圍繞健康空間可持續發展的創新不斷加強，以及我們對一流服務水平的承諾，我們期望在未來繼續發展 AUV。

Rounding out these core attributes is our profitable 50-50 joint venture, which is the most innovative and efficient manufacturer of grid products. In addition to realized equity earnings each quarter, this venture has returned more than $1 billion in dividends to Armstrong since the great financial crisis. Together, the core attributes of our company have allowed us to generate $1.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow margins in excess of 20% since 2016.

我們盈利的 50-50 合資企業使這些核心屬性更加完善，它是最具創新性和效率的電網產品製造商。自金融危機爆發以來，除了每個季度實現的股本收益外，該合資企業還向阿姆斯特朗返還了超過 10 億美元的股息。自 2016 年以來，我們公司的核心屬性使我們能夠產生 13 億美元的調整後自由現金流，調整後自由現金流利潤率超過 20%。

Looking just at the period since the onset of COVID, through the end of 2022 during what has clearly been a challenging market environment, we've delivered over $600 million of adjusted free cash flow, including more than $200 million in 2020 when shutdowns materially impacted our sales. In spite of market headwinds, we anticipate delivering strong cash flow generation again this year given our expectations to hold AUV ahead of historical levels and grow initiatives and disciplined approach to our spending.

僅從新冠疫情爆發以來到 2022 年底明顯充滿挑戰的市場環境來看，我們已經交付了超過 6 億美元的調整後自由現金流，其中包括 2020 年停工造成重大影響時的 2 億多美元我們的銷售。儘管存在市場逆風，但鑑於我們期望 AUV 領先於歷史水平，並加強支出舉措和嚴格的支出方式，我們預計今年將再次產生強勁的現金流。

We have and will continue to be responsible and efficient allocators of capital as we seek to invest to generate near- and long-term value for our shareholders. This includes direct returns to investors through dividends and share repurchases as well as investments back in our business and into complementary acquisitions. We have a strong track record for doing this. Since 2016, we have returned more than $1 billion in dividends and share repurchases, while also acquiring 9 companies to expand our capabilities within the Architectural Specialties segment.

我們已經並將繼續成為負責任和高效的資本配置者，因為我們尋求投資為股東創造近期和長期價值。這包括通過股息和股票回購以及對我們業務和補充收購的投資向投資者提供直接回報。我們在這方面擁有良好的記錄。自 2016 年以來，我們已返還超過 10 億美元的股息和股票回購，同時還收購了 9 家公司，以擴大我們在建築專業領域的能力。

So while none of us look forward to an economic downturn, at AWI, we believe we are well positioned to manage through all parts of the cycle, demonstrating our resilience and delivering cash flow growth.

因此，雖然我們都不期待經濟衰退，但在 AWI，我們相信我們有能力管理整個週期的各個部分，展示我們的韌性並實現現金流增長。

And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Thompson Research 的 Kathryn Thompson。

Just one thing on the clarification on your volumes up 9%. And I believe last year in the same quarter, volumes were off by 4%. And then you said that there was a 300 basis point benefit from growth initiatives and extra shipping day. So I assume that you actually had a modest organic growth in the quarter. Well to sort of make sure that, that logic holds with what you're seeing. And then you cited a couple of end markets that were seeing growth, but could you give some clarification in terms of what you're seeing in terms of volumes for other key end markets that are important to Armstrong?

只需澄清一件事，您的銷量增長了 9%。我相信去年同一季度的銷量下降了 4%。然後您說增長計劃和額外的發貨日帶來了 300 個基點的收益。因此，我認為本季度您實際上實現了適度的有機增長。好吧，為了確保這一點，這個邏輯與你所看到的相符。然後您列舉了幾個正在增長的終端市場，但是您能否澄清一下您所看到的對阿姆斯特朗重要的其他關鍵終端市場的銷量？

Yes. Let me -- Kathryn, let me start with kind of at a macro level, and then I'll let Chris dissect some of the build there on the volume. The markets that we experienced in the first quarter were primarily similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter. As we saw -- as you remember, in the third quarter of last year, we started to see the discretionary spending around renovation get pulled back, and we expected that to continue in the fourth quarter. That level of softness in the market is very similar to what we saw in the first quarter. So I would say, overall, the markets that we experienced in the first quarter are largely stable versus what we saw in the fourth quarter.

是的。讓我——凱瑟琳，讓我從宏觀層面開始，然後我會讓克里斯剖析本書中的一些構建。我們第一季度經歷的市場與第四季度基本相似。正如我們所看到的，正如您所記得的，去年第三季度，我們開始看到裝修方面的可自由支配支出有所減少，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度繼續下去。市場的疲軟程度與我們在第一季度看到的非常相似。因此，我想說，總體而言，我們在第一季度經歷的市場與第四季度相比基本穩定。

So as you compare that to the first quarter of last year, I'm going to let Chris dissect that a little bit, and then I'll add some additional comments on the additional verticals question.

因此，當您將其與去年第一季度進行比較時，我將讓克里斯對此進行一些剖析，然後我將針對其他垂直問題添加一些額外的評論。

Yes. So thanks, Kathryn. So as we said in our prepared remarks, Mineral Fiber volume down 9%. The market was down on low single digits and that was really offset by the 3 points attributable to both ship day and initiatives. And then the remainder attributable to the prior year inventory comp and current year retail inventory build that we mentioned.

是的。謝謝，凱瑟琳。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，礦物纖維銷量下降了 9%。市場以低個位數下跌，但實際上被發貨日和舉措造成的 3 個百分點所抵消。然後其餘部分歸因於我們提到的上一年庫存比較和本年度零售庫存建設。

Yes. Across -- sorry, Kathryn, just to add to your second question there around verticals. I know the watch out here is around the office market and what's going on with the office market. Frankly, what we have seen in the office market in the first quarter is very similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter. I would say all of the markets kind of behaved very similarly. So we haven't seen an additional downturn, but to all of the dynamics and then what we're reading about in the office market.

是的。抱歉，凱瑟琳，我想補充一下關於垂直領域的第二個問題。我知道這裡要關注的是辦公市場以及辦公市場的現狀。坦白說，第一季度寫字樓市場的情況與第四季度非常相似。我想說所有市場的表現都非常相似。因此，我們沒有看到進一步的低迷，但看到了所有的動態以及我們在辦公市場上讀到的內容。

I also mentioned in our prepared remarks that the bidding activity across really all verticals, frankly turned positive in the first quarter. And we're hesitating to conclude anything from that, by the way, because we -- as we've reported, the last 2 quarters' bidding activity had turned negative. And so the fact that we had a positive bidding, we're not overweighting that at all. But it is noteworthy that there's some work out there really across all of the segments, again, including office.

我在我們準備好的發言中還提到，坦率地說，所有垂直領域的投標活動在第一季度都出現了積極的變化。順便說一句，我們正在猶豫是否要從中得出任何結論，因為正如我們所報導的那樣，過去兩個季度的競標活動已經轉為負值。因此，事實上我們有一個積極的出價，我們根本不會過度重視這一點。但值得注意的是，所有領域都存在一些工作，包括辦公室。

So we're going to watch that very closely as we go into the second quarter and beyond. But I would say, overall, a very stable relative to the fourth quarter softness that we have already experienced.

因此，當我們進入第二季度及以後時，我們將非常密切地關注這一點。但我想說，總體而言，相對於我們已經經歷過的第四季度的疲軟，這是非常穩定的。

And do you feel like the destocking has normalized and that, that process is [probably] behind you?

您是否覺得去庫存已經正常化，並且這個過程[可能]已經過去了？

We do. We do believe that as well as our great products, right, Kathryn, I think that's maybe we're going to -- including with our great products, it seemed to hang on a little bit longer last year.

我們的確是。我們確實相信，除了我們出色的產品之外，凱瑟琳，我認為我們可能會——包括我們出色的產品，去年的情況似乎會持續得更久一些。

And as you see recovery, I mean some of those are for bigger projects. But just for your basic everyday patch and match, are you seeing any recovery in those trends?

正如你所看到的複蘇，我的意思是其中一些是針對更大的項目的。但就你的基本日常補丁和搭配而言，你是否看到這些趨勢有任何復蘇？

I would say no recovery, just about the same. Again, no additional downturn. No additional softness. But again, I wouldn't -- certainly wouldn't say any recovery.

我會說沒有恢復，幾乎一樣。再次強調，沒有出現額外的衰退。沒有額外的柔軟度。但我再說一次，我不會——當然不會說有任何恢復。

Okay. And final follow-up just before I hop back in the queue. Just on pricing, seen a lot of industries. You've been fairly regular [you being in the industry] for 2 price increases each year. Are you still on track with that? And how do you feel for the full year when you think about guidance in terms of that price cost balance?

好的。在我重新回到隊列之前進行最後的跟進。就定價而言，見過很多行業。你們[在這個行業]每年都會有兩次價格上漲。你還在這樣的軌道上嗎？當您考慮價格成本平衡方面的指導時，您對全年有何感受？

Yes. Sure, Kathryn. We -- as we outlooked, we wanted to get back to a regular cadence on our price increases, we are on track to continue that, which is our price increase of twice a year. We've implemented our price increase in February per our normal cadence. We've gotten good traction on that price increase. We do anticipate to continue to be in inflationary environment. Obviously, not as hyperinflationary as it's been in the last 2 years, but nevertheless an inflationary environment. So it's important that we execute on these price increases and our teams are doing that.

是的。當然，凱瑟琳。正如我們所預期的那樣，我們希望恢復正常的提價節奏，我們有望繼續這樣做，即每年兩次提價。我們已按照正常節奏在二月份實施了漲價。我們在價格上漲方面獲得了良好的推動力。我們確實預計將繼續處於通脹環境中。顯然，雖然不像過去兩年那樣惡性通貨膨脹，但仍然是一個通貨膨脹環境。因此，重要的是我們執行這些價格上漲，我們的團隊正在這樣做。

So we're on track to that normal cadence of twice a year. The sizing of these increases will be sized as we get closer to those dates of the price increase to reflect the inflationary environment that we're in, to make sure that we cover inflation with our pricing initiatives and expand margins as we've outlooked. That's -- we're still on track for that.

因此，我們正在按照每年兩次的正常節奏進行。隨著我們接近提價日期，我們將調整這些上漲的規模，以反映我們所處的通貨膨脹環境，以確保我們通過定價舉措來應對通貨膨脹，並按照我們的預期擴大利潤率。那是——我們仍然在朝著這個目標前進。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自高盛的蘇珊·馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

My first question is following up on some of the commentary that you made in the office on end markets there. Are you seeing that there's any differences geographically? In your comments, Vic, you said that you're seeing some greater activity in some of your lower-margin markets. Does that relate to the office area and some of the broader shifts that are happening in terms of population and job growth across the country?

我的第一個問題是跟進您在辦公室對終端市場所做的一些評論。您是否發現地理上存在任何差異？維克，在您的評論中，您說您在一些利潤率較低的市場中看到了一些更活躍的活動。這是否與辦公區域以及全國人口和就業增長方面正在發生的一些更廣泛的變化有關？

Yes, I think so. All of our regions were positive in the quarter. So every region grew, including those that have back to office. If you look at the Kastle back to office index that we all watch. There are differences across the country. And we've been -- we saw that in 2022, and we're going to continue to see that, I think, this year. Those markets that have higher levels of back to office, have more tenant improvement activity ongoing.

是的，我想是這樣。我們所有的地區在本季度都表現積極。因此，每個地區都在增長，包括那些已經恢復辦公的地區。如果你看看我們都關注的 Kastle 重返辦公室指數。全國各地存在差異。我們在 2022 年就看到了這一點，我認為今年我們還將繼續看到這一點。那些重返辦公室水平較高的市場正在進行更多租戶改善活動。

So I think there is a relationship there for sure. But some of our -- some of the timing of -- it's really timing, Susan, in some of these regions that were stronger than other regions had a lot to do with the base period comparison as well. The first quarter last year, as you know, distributors were destocking or taking their inventory levels down. We also had some irregular performances, if you will, as against that backdrop. Some regions being really strong. In fact, our highest AUV regions last year in first quarter were the strongest, while a lot of destocking was going on around them.

所以我認為肯定存在某種關係。但我們的一些——一些時機——這確實是時機，蘇珊，在一些比其他地區更強的地區也與基期比較有很大關係。如您所知，去年第一季度，分銷商正在去庫存或降低庫存水平。如果你願意的話，我們也有一些不規則的表演，以此為背景。有些地區確實很強。事實上，我們去年第一季度 AUV 最高的地區是最強勁的，而這些地區周圍正在進行大量的去庫存。

So I think some of this is just timing on the disparity on sales by territory geographic regions as we reported on. And that will largely work its way out through as the year goes on here.

因此，我認為其中一些只是我們報導的不同地區銷售差異的時機。隨著這一年的繼續，這將在很大程度上得到解決。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then you also mentioned that you're seeing larger projects, especially in infrastructure areas as a result of some of the bills that have been passed there. As you think about the acquisitions that you've done in the last couple of years in Architectural Specialties, the sort of range of product offerings that you have there now. How is that changing your ability to go after those projects and what does that mean in terms of your visibility and the longer-term margins for Architectural Specialties, the ability to get to that targeted range there?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後您還提到，由於一些法案的通過，您正在看到更大的項目，特別是在基礎設施領域。當您考慮過去幾年在建築專業領域所做的收購時，您現在擁有的產品範圍。這如何改變您追求這些項目的能力？這對您的知名度和建築專業的長期利潤以及達到目標範圍的能力意味著什麼？

Yes. I think it's a really good question, and there's a real strong connection here to our participation. I mean to take a step back, in the last 6 months, we've quoted over 100 transportation jobs, over 100 transportation jobs just in the last 6 months. And so there's a lot more activity on the transportation front than what we've experienced in the last several years. That's noteworthy. But the fact that we're in these bids, and we're quoting on this work is really directly connected to the expanded capabilities that we have added to the Architectural Specialties segment through our acquisitions.

是的。我認為這是一個非常好的問題，這與我們的參與有著真正緊密的聯繫。我的意思是退一步說，在過去 6 個月裡，我們已經報價了 100 多個運輸工作崗位，僅在過去 6 個月內就提供了 100 多個運輸工作崗位。因此，交通方面的活動比我們過去幾年經歷的要多得多。這是值得注意的。但事實上，我們參與這些投標，並且我們對這項工作進行報價，確實與我們通過收購添加到建築專業領域的擴展能力直接相關。

Our ability to do things with metal and wood, as we talked about in the last call, the Kansas City Airport, our innovation around wood and be able to meet those requirements was unique in the marketplace because we had purchased a wood business, and now we're in that business. So I think there's a real strong connection. The breadth of our portfolio is allowing us to not only participate in these large projects, which we couldn't have before, but also be competitive and uniquely competitive in these large projects versus, we feel, more niche players who don't have the breadth and the platform of Armstrong. And so we're bringing some real competitive advantage, I think, to these projects. Definitely a strong connection to what we've done over the last several years to be able to play now in these larger projects.

我們用金屬和木材做事的能力，正如我們在上次電話會議中談到的，堪薩斯城機場，我們圍繞木材的創新以及能夠滿足這些要求在市場上是獨一無二的，因為我們購買了木材業務，現在我們從事這項業務。所以我認為兩者之間存在真正緊密的聯繫。我們投資組合的廣度使我們不僅能夠參與這些以前無法參與的大型項目，而且在這些大型項目中具有競爭力和獨特的競爭力，我們認為，與那些沒有這些項目的利基參與者相比阿姆斯特朗的廣度和平台。因此，我認為我們正在為這些項目帶來一些真正的競爭優勢。這絕對與我們過去幾年所做的事情有很強的聯繫，現在我們能夠在這些更大的項目中發揮作用。

Please stand by for our next question. The next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist.

請等待我們的下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes。

Question on Mineral Fiber costs. The $6 million inventory, is that an inventory write-off or specifically what is that, that affected the quarter?

關於礦物纖維成本的問題。 600 萬美元的庫存是庫存沖銷還是具體是什麼影響了本季度？

Keith, it's Chris. No, it's basically inventory valuations. Think about it in terms of inflation and the timing of inflation rolling through the P&L as inventory is sold. It's not a write-off, it's just the timing inflation -- of inflation.

基思，是克里斯。不，這基本上是庫存估值。從通貨膨脹以及庫存出售時通貨膨脹在損益表中滾動的時間角度來考慮。這不是沖銷，只是通貨膨脹的時機。

Okay. All right. Perfect. And then a second question on the AUV, I think it was pressured with the geography. Is that a function of Northeast, which tends to be, I think, your highest just being weaker than other parts of the country? And do you expect this to be something we're going to see consistently over the next year?

好的。好的。完美的。然後是關於 AUV 的第二個問題，我認為它受到了地理的壓力。這是東北地區的功能嗎？我認為，東北地區的最高水平只是比該國其他地區弱？您預計這會是我們明年持續看到的情況嗎？

No, I think it's timing. So just -- again, as I said earlier, Keith, I think it's timing. The Northeast part of the country, it grew in the first quarter. It didn't grow as fast as some of the southern regions, but the comparison year-over-year is we had double-digit growth in the Northeast in the first quarter last year, while overall volumes were down 4% last year. So there were some outsized participation in 2 of our higher AUV areas that by comparison, I'd say, even though they are positive, underperformed some of the stronger growth territory.

不，我認為是時候了。所以，正如我之前所說，基思，我認為現在正是時候。該國東北地區第一季度出現增長。它的增長速度不如南方一些地區，但與去年同期相比，我們去年第一季度東北地區的增長速度達到了兩位數，而去年總體銷量卻下降了 4%。因此，我們的兩個 AUV 較高的領域有一些過大的參與，相比之下，我想說，儘管它們是積極的，但表現卻遜於一些增長強勁的領域。

So in the month of April, Keith, I've already seen this reverse itself. So this is a timing, I think, phenomena that will kind of normalize throughout the year.

所以在四月份，基思，我已經看到了這種逆轉。因此，我認為，這是一個全年都會正常化的現象。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Garik Shmois。

I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color just on your net gas hedges. How much are you hedged now? Any color on the duration of the hedges? And I think you expected costs to be up mid-single digits this year, does your new hedging program impact that outlook at all?

我想知道你是否可以在你的淨天然氣對沖上提供更多的顏色。你現在對沖多少？樹籬的持續時間有什麼顏色嗎？我認為您預計今年成本將上升至個位數中段，您的新對沖計劃是否會影響這一前景？

Garik. So yes, as I said, we hedged a portion, be thinking about that in terms of about half of our exposure. Duration is really just for this year. And relative to our guide earlier associated with mineral -- sorry, with natural gas and overall inputs, it's not -- I wouldn't expect that to move the needle pretty materially there, but it was contemplated as we guided to our initial nat gas and input cost exposure for the year.

加里克.所以，是的，正如我所說，我們對沖了一部分，考慮到我們大約一半的風險敞口。持續時間確實只適合今年。相對於我們之前與礦物相關的指南 - 抱歉，與天然氣和總體投入有關，它不是 - 我不認為這會大幅推動那裡的發展，但在我們引導我們最初的天然氣時就考慮到了這一點以及當年的投入成本風險。

Great. I wanted to follow up just on the Mineral Fiber volume outlook. And just in conjunction with the strong reported performance in the first quarter. I don't know if you could provide a little bit more handholding on how you expect the cadence of volume growth to progress over the next 3 quarters?

偉大的。我想跟進礦物纖維的銷量前景。與第一季度強勁的業績報告相結合。我不知道您是否可以提供更多關於您預計未來三個季度銷量增長節奏的信息？

Yes. Yes. So in terms of volume, think about the remainder of the year. While we don't provide quarterly guidance, we do expect negative volumes in the second quarter and really consistent with what we talked about in February, really continued deceleration of volume progression for the remainder of the year. Again, it comes back to the level of uncertainty and cloudiness associated with the back half of the year, and the mild recession that we've incorporated into our guidance.

是的。是的。因此，就數量而言，請考慮今年剩餘時間。雖然我們沒有提供季度指導，但我們確實預計第二季度銷量將出現負增長，這與我們在 2 月份討論的情況非常一致，今年剩餘時間銷量增長確實會持續減速。再次，這又回到了與今年下半年相關的不確定性和陰雲程度，以及我們納入指導的溫和衰退。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Phil Ng 和 Jefferies。

With the regional bank failures and likely tighter lending conditions on CRE loans, how do you see that impacting your business? And any color on timing? And then Vic, I guess, it would be really helpful if you could help us segment your customer base and type of work that you could see being impacted. I would suspect like new construction would be potentially impacted a little more. But any color on how to think like major reno versus your patch and match business would be helpful.

由於地區銀行倒閉以及商業地產貸款的貸款條件可能收緊，您認為這對您的業務有何影響？時間上有什麼顏色嗎？然後，我想，維克，如果您能幫助我們細分您的客戶群和您可能會受到影響的工作類型，那將會非常有幫助。我懷疑新建築可能會受到更大的影響。但是，任何有關如何像主要雷諾與您的補丁和匹配業務一樣思考的顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes, Phil. So in the first quarter, we really have not seen any impact from all the things that we're reading about and the different possibilities about ramifications. I think our back half guidance reflects the level of uncertainty that this adds to it. And I think this is going to have to play out for us to really understand what the full ramifications of this could be. It really is balanced, though. When you think about the things that you read about in Class A office space and trophy where there's high demand for that space and the additional amenities and work that is going to keep those buildings competitive and full.

是的，菲爾。因此，在第一季度，我們確實沒有看到我們正在閱讀的所有內容以及有關後果的不同可能性的任何影響。我認為我們的後半部分指導反映了這增加的不確定性程度。我認為這必須讓我們真正了解這可能產生的全部後果。不過，它確實是平衡的。當您想到您在甲級辦公空間和獎杯中讀到的內容時，人們對該空間以及額外的便利設施和工作的需求很高，這將使這些建築保持競爭力和充實。

That drives renovation activity, and we're seeing that activity on 1 side of it. That's not likely to stop. So if you step back and look at overall new construction versus renovation, I've said this before, and I think this is going to play out in the back half of the year. This will be primarily impacting the renovation. More of those things that haven't already started where you have some costs like you would have in new construction, you're going to have discretionary pullback on those patch and match levels of work, the major renovation work.

這推動了翻新活動，我們在一方面看到了這種活動。這不太可能停止。因此，如果你退後一步，看看整體新建工程與翻新工程，我之前已經說過這​​一點，我認為這將在今年下半年發揮作用。這將主要影響改造。更多那些尚未開始的事情，如果你有一些成本，就像在新建築中那樣，你將酌情取消那些修補和匹配工作的水平，即主要的翻修工作。

I think that's where we're going to see additional softness in the back half of the year. I think we're appropriately balanced in our outlook that's reflecting what could happen in tighter lending conditions in our back half outlook. I think this has to play out for us to fully understand the full ramifications. And I'll leave it there, Phil.

我認為這就是今年下半年我們將看到的額外疲軟的地方。我認為我們的前景是適當平衡的，這反映了我們後半期前景中貸款條件收緊可能發生的情況。我認為這必須讓我們充分理解其全部後果。我會把它留在那裡，菲爾。

Okay. That's more than fair. I guess from a cycle standpoint, it was really helpful to kind of give us some color on how you think about the free cash flow and the durability of AUV. Is the playbook any little different this time around? I know in the past, volumes would fall, pricing would hold and you would mix up [gross falling]. This time around, I'm curious, how does mix hold up given some of the challenges you're seeing in office and retail, which I assume is higher mix and potentially weakness in places like San Francisco, New York and help us think through the mix dynamic going forward.

好的。這非常公平。我想從周期的角度來看，讓我們了解您如何看待 AUV 的自由現金流和耐久性確實很有幫助。這次的劇本有什麼不同嗎？我知道在過去，銷量會下降，定價會保持不變，而且你會混淆[總體下降]。這一次，我很好奇，鑑於您在辦公和零售業中看到的一些挑戰，混合如何維持下去，我認為舊金山、紐約等地的混合程度較高，並且存在潛在的弱點，這有助於我們思考未來的混合動態。

Yes. I think what the best proxy is to go back and look at what happened in 2008, '09 and '10. I don't think it could get any worse than that. And in that case, we didn't see the trade down on mix, so we're not anticipating to see the same kind of -- or a different kind of a trade-down activity on mix. Again, everything that I'm reading is that the highest demand office space continues to be Class A and trophy buildings. And the vacancy rates are the lowest in those buildings as people trade up from older buildings, 30 years and older. I think that dynamic is going to keep the mix appropriately sized for us in our outlook.

是的。我認為最好的代理是回顧一下 2008 年、09 年和 10 年發生的事情。我認為情況不會比這更糟糕了。在這種情況下，我們沒有看到組合上的折價交易，因此我們預計不會看到相同類型或不同類型的組合上的折價活動。再說一次，我讀到的所有內容都是，需求最高的辦公空間仍然是甲級和獎杯建築。隨著人們從 30 年及以上的老建築升級換代，這些建築的空置率是最低的。我認為這種動態將使我們的前景保持適當的組合規模。

And again, mix happens across the country, not just in the major cities where there's offices. And then the final point I'll make on this is that new construction is -- what was positive in the Q4 of 2021 and all of '22, could add a positive tailwind in the back half of the year and into '24. And again, new construction tends to be higher AUV products based on the nature of the new construction and putting in the latest and greatest technology. So that's kind of a long-winded answer, Phil, but I don't really see a dynamic here that should change our expectation on driving higher AUVs and higher mixes.

再說一遍，混合發生在全國各地，而不僅僅是在設有辦事處的主要城市。然後我要說的最後一點是，新的建設是——2021 年第四季度和整個 22 年的積極成果，可能會在今年下半年和進入 24 年帶來積極的推動力。同樣，根據新建築的性質並採用最新、最先進的技術，新建築往往是更高的 AUV 產品。所以，這是一個冗長的答案，菲爾，但我並沒有真正看到這裡的動態應該改變我們對駕駛更高的 AUV 和更高的混合的期望。

And maybe I'll just make this long-winded answer even longer, by -- when I talk about the focus of this business now that we don't have an international division, we have a tremendous amount of focus on this Americas market, where we're innovating and bringing products to market even faster. We've talked a lot about those with you. I think the work that we're doing around Healthy Spaces, the work we're doing around sustainability. All of these are bringing higher AUV products into the marketplace even faster. So there's a lot of tailwind to AUV growth just through the innovation that I think offsets any of those minor dynamics that you're alluding to. So again, sorry for a long-winded answer, but I do believe we have a positive AUV story well into the future here.

也許我會讓這個冗長的答案變得更長，當我談論這項業務的重點時，我們沒有國際部門，我們非常關注美洲市場，我們不斷創新並更快地將產品推向市場。我們已經和你討論了很多關於這些的事情。我認為我們圍繞健康空間所做的工作，我們圍繞可持續發展所做的工作。所有這些都將更高的 AUV 產品更快地推向市場。因此，通過創新，我認為 AUV 的增長有很大的推動力，可以抵消您所提到的那些微小的動力。再次抱歉，我的回答很冗長，但我確實相信我們在未來很長一段時間內都會有一個積極的 AUV 故事。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate the help so far. Just wanted to touch on the Mineral Fiber volume first. I guess first of all, the extra shipping day, that was actually not something we had expected. So can you help us understand -- just foresee, are there any other future day adjustments we should be thinking about later this year? And then with respect to your volume, I guess, inclusive of any shipping day issues, I think previously, you had talked about your outlook for the year, the kind of the shape of the year-over-year changes kind of being like down low single digits in the front half and I think down high single digits in the back half. This is what you had previously talked about.

感謝迄今為止的幫助。只是想先談談礦物纖維卷。我想首先，額外的發貨日實際上並不是我們所期望的。那麼您能否幫助我們理解——只是預見一下，今年晚些時候我們是否應該考慮任何其他未來的調整？然後，關於您的數量，我想，包括任何發貨日問題，我想您之前已經談到了今年的前景，同比變化的形狀有點像下降前半部分是低個位數，我認為後半部分是高個位數。這就是您之前談到的。

You're not changing your guidance now, but you had a very strong 1Q, obviously. And so I'm curious, is there any help you can give us in terms of maybe a change in the shape of that sort of first half, second half kind of year-over-year comparison?

你現在不會改變你的指導，但顯然你有一個非常強勁的第一季度。所以我很好奇，在上半年、下半年同比比較的形式可能發生變化方面，您能給我們提供任何幫助嗎？

Stephen, so for the first quarter, obviously, up 1 ship day. The only other ship day dynamic we have this year is Q3, where we're down 1. So overall, flat on a ship day basis for the full year. In terms of volume, we do incorporate kind of that shipping day dynamic into our guide. And again, we outlooked Mineral Fiber volume being in that mid-single-digit range for the year. First half, back half dynamic, we're expecting positive first half volume for Mineral Fiber, but you're right, the second half is in that high single-digit range in terms of year-over-year comp. And again, that's due to the progression that I mentioned earlier with just sequential deceleration starting in the second quarter and again, really pronounced in the back half there due to the expected recession that we have incorporated into our outlook.

斯蒂芬，第一季度顯然增加了 1 個發貨日。今年我們唯一的其他船舶日動​​態是第三季度，我們下降了 1。因此總體而言，全年船舶日基本持平。就數量而言，我們確實將發貨日動態納入了我們的指南中。我們再次預計今年礦物纖維銷量將處於中個位數範圍內。上半年，後半段動態，我們預計礦物纖維上半年的銷量為正，但你是對的，就同比而言，下半年處於高個位數範圍內。再說一遍，這是由於我之前提到的進展，從第二季度開始連續減速，由於我們已將預期的衰退納入我們的前景，因此在後半段尤為明顯。

So I'm guessing because the first half is not going to be positive, it sounds like your second half outlook is still down high single digit, but maybe more high single digits than previously thought. Is that a fair guess?

所以我猜測，因為上半年不會是積極的，聽起來你下半年的前景仍然是高個位數，但可能比之前想像的更高。這是一個合理的猜測嗎？

Yes, I think that's fair, high single digits in the back half is fair.

是的，我認為這很公平，後半段的高個位數是公平的。

Okay. And then when we think about WAVE, I think typically, it's stronger seasonally in 2Q and 3Q. Any reason why the seasonality might be different this year?

好的。然後，當我們考慮 WAVE 時，我認為通常情況下，它在第二季度和第三季度季節性更強。今年的季節性可能有所不同，有什麼原因嗎？

While the seasonality pattern the WAVE follows, Armstrong broadly, right, because most of the construction activities is in the third quarter -- second and third quarter. So no change in the seasonality there. Again, I think the third quarter is part of that back half uncertainty where there's not enough clarity around our customers' backlogs going into the back half.

雖然 WAVE 遵循季節性模式，但阿姆斯特朗大體上是對的，因為大多數建築活動都在第三季度——第二和第三季度。所以那裡的季節性沒有變化。再說一遍，我認為第三季度是後半段不確定性的一部分，我們客戶的後半段積壓訂單還不夠清晰。

So certainly, I think with the uncertainty in the back half, we could see a dampening or a change in the seasonal patterns given our outlook for the second quarter and the first half of the year. Again, a lot of this first half volume that we're seeing, Stephen, is carryover projects that didn't get completed last year or got delayed last year. That's really kind of feeding some of this in addition to some of the favorable comp in the base period that we talked about.

當然，我認為，鑑於下半年的不確定性，考慮到我們對第二季度和上半年的展望，我們可能會看到季節性模式的減弱或變化。同樣，斯蒂芬，我們看到的上半卷中的很多都是去年未完成或去年推遲的結轉項目。除了我們談到的基期的一些有利的補償之外，這確實是一種補充。

So I think, of course, there could be something macro that dampens the quarter in the back -- the strongest quarter, which is the third quarter in our back half.

所以我認為，當然，可能有一些宏觀因素會抑制後半區的表現——最強的季度，也就是我們後半區的第三季度。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

It's Rafe. I just wanted to follow up on the like-for-like pricing and mix impact for the quarter. Could you sort of break out what the like-for-like pricing was either year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter? What the expectations are for the year? And then did you see normal realization on the February price announcement?

是拉夫。我只是想跟進本季度的同類定價和組合影響。您能否透露一下同比定價或環比定價是多少？對這一年的期望是什麼？那麼二月份的價格公告你看到正常實現了嗎？

Yes. Our like-for-like pricing was as expected in the quarter. And I mentioned earlier that our February price increase, we got good traction on as well. So I think we're where we wanted to be, where we expected to be on our like-for-like pricing objectives. Obviously, that was offset by some of the timing-related mix headwinds in the first quarter that dampened, I think, the overall AUV growth. But the like-for-like pricing is -- again, where we expect it to be and where we're comfortable.

是的。我們本季度的同類定價符合預期。我之前提到過，我們二月份的價格上漲，也得到了良好的推動。所以我認為我們已經達到了我們想要達到的目標，我們期望達到我們的同類定價目標。顯然，第一季度一些與時間相關的混合阻力抵消了這一影響，我認為這些阻力抑制了 AUV 的整體增長。但同樣的定價同樣是我們所期望的、也是我們感到滿意的。

And then just as we think about the AUV cadence through the year, you sort of mentioned that you expect some of the mix headwinds to reverse in the second quarter. Would we -- should we expect outsized positive AUV in the second quarter because of that?

然後，正當我們思考全年 AUV 節奏時，您提到您預計一些混合阻力將在第二季度扭轉。因此，我們是否應該預期第二季度 AUV 會出現大幅增長？

Outsized relative to what, Rafe?

拉夫，相對於什麼而言，尺寸過大？

To the full year guidance.

到全年指導。

I couldn't say or answer that.

我無法說出或回答這個問題。

Yes, it's hard to call. I mean, obviously, in our guide for the year, we assumed that we talked about this back in February positive mix. I'd just go back to what we saw in the first quarter on the mix side was really timing related and expect that to kind of reverse itself as you think about mix for the rest of the year and again, still looking at positive mix for 2023.

是的，打電話很難。我的意思是，顯然，在我們的今年指南中，我們假設我們在二月份討論過這個積極的組合。我只想回到我們在第一季度看到的混合方面確實與時間相關，並預計當你考慮今年剩餘時間的混合時，這種情況會發生逆轉，仍然會考慮積極的混合2023 年。

All right. And then just very quickly on the retail sort of restocking that you saw. Can you sort of give some color on what you think drove that? Like it has sellout improved on the ceiling tile side at some of the home center channels. I think that was a big -- one of the drivers to the volume upside in the first quarter and interested to hear sort of what you're seeing in that channel?

好的。然後很快就出現了你所看到的零售補貨。您能透露一下您認為是什麼推動了這一結果嗎？就像它在一些家居中心頻道的天花板瓷磚方面的銷售有所改善一樣。我認為這是第一季度銷量上升的一大推動因素，並且有興趣聽聽您在該頻道中看到的內容嗎？

Well, there's some resetting going on at one of the big box retailers. Sometimes it's a bit of a mystery on why they take their inventory levels down as far as they do and then build them up so quickly. As we've reported a number of times, it does occur. I would say that's more of the dynamic in the first quarter activity with 1 particular big box retailer.

嗯，一家大型零售商正在進行一些重置。有時，他們為何將庫存水平降低到如此程度，然後又如此迅速地增加，這有點令人費解。正如我們多次報導的那樣，這種情況確實發生了。我想說，這更多的是一家特定大型零售商第一季度活動的動態。

So again, I wouldn't point to some large outsized point-of-sale data, for example, that drove that. This was really inventory levels getting pretty low, some resetting activity going on there, which we normally do and work with our retail customers throughout the year on and then a rebuild of inventory right behind that. I think that's more of the actual and practical application -- or answer for what that activity is about.

再說一次，我不會指出一些巨大的銷售點數據，例如，推動這一點的原因。這實際上是庫存水平變得相當低，那裡正在進行一些重置活動，我們通常全年都會這樣做並與零售客戶合作，然後在這之後重建庫存。我認為這更多的是實際和實際的應用——或者回答該活動的內容。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from Adam Baumgarten with Zelman & Associates.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Adam Baumgarten。

You mentioned the bidding activity turn positive for the quarter. Does that continue into April?

您提到本季度的投標活動轉好。這種情況會持續到四月份嗎？

I don't have April data yet. We won't get that until next month. So I couldn't answer that specifically. We're going to keep an eye on it. Again, we're not putting too much weight on it in the first quarter, but we're going to keep a close eye on it for the second quarter.

我還沒有四月份的數據。直到下個月我們才能得到。所以我無法具體回答。我們將密切關注。同樣，我們不會在第一季度給予太多重視，但我們將密切關注第二季度的情況。

Okay. Got it. And then just on the topic of natural gas. Just curious when you guys put in the hedging program? And if you could remind us what percentage of your total COGS is natural gas?

好的。知道了。然後就是天然氣的話題。只是好奇你們什麼時候加入對沖計劃的？您能否提醒我們天然氣佔總銷貨成本的比例是多少？

Yes, sure. So energy, and we don't break it out kind of any more than that. But energy is about 10% of our Mineral Fiber COGS input cost -- sorry, of our total COGS of Mineral Fiber. Again, I mentioned we're hedging about 50% of our natural gas exposure by way of the price locks that we talked about, kind of entered into towards the earlier part of the quarter. So you can kind of look at the NYMEX settlements and kind of get a feel for the pricing there. And hopefully, that's helpful as you're thinking through the nat gas locking.

是的，當然。所以能量，我們不會再把它分解出來。但能源約占我們礦物纖維 COGS 輸入成本的 10%——抱歉，占我們礦物纖維總 COGS 的 10%。我再次提到，我們正在通過我們談到的價格鎖定來對沖大約 50% 的天然氣風險，這種鎖定是在本季度早些時候達成的。因此，您可以查看 NYMEX 的結算結果並了解那裡的定價。希望這對您考慮天然氣鎖定時有所幫助。

Got it. And then just to confirm, I think there was a question earlier on just overall input cost inflation assumed in the guide, it was mid-single digits last quarter. Is the way to think about that is roughly the same still?

知道了。然後只是為了確認，我認為早些時候有一個關於指南中假設的總體投入成本通脹的問題，上個季度為中個位數。思考這個問題的方式還大致相同嗎？

Yes. For the year, mid-single digits on input costs. Again, a little bit of variability, obviously, depending upon how the rest of the year shakes out, obviously, on dynamics associated with nat gas, but certainly more heavily weighted there towards our raw material inputs where we see a lion's share of that inflation.

是的。今年，投入成本為中個位數。同樣，顯然，有一點可變性，這取決於今年剩餘時間的變化，顯然，與天然氣相關的動態，但肯定更重要的是我們的原材料投入，我們看到通貨膨脹的最大份額。

Please stand by for our next question. The next question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

請等待我們的下一個問題。下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Just wanted to clarify on that last point about the hedging. You mentioned it starting in the earlier part of the quarter. Is it simplistic enough to think you're talking about the early part of this quarter? Or was this the early part of last quarter that you started it?

只是想澄清有關對沖的最後一點。您在本季度早些時候就提到了這一點。您是否認為您正在談論本季度初期的情況是否足夠簡單？或者這是您在上個季度初期開始的嗎？

Yes. Sorry, good question. Early part of Q1.

是的。抱歉，好問題。第一季度的早期。

Okay. Got it. And then just a quick clarification on the mix. I know it's kind of been beaten to death at this point. But was there a benefit from lapping unfavorable channel mix related to the destocking last year. I don't think I saw the favorable geographic mix called out, but it looks like you did call out the unfavorable channel mix in the prior year.

好的。知道了。然後對混合進行快速澄清。我知道此時此刻已經被打死了。但去年去庫存帶來的不利渠道組合是否有好處？我認為我沒有看到有利的地理組合，但看起來您確實在前一年指出了不利的渠道組合。

Well, I don't recall what was disclosed last year, in particular. I mean it was a down quarter last year, right, based on the destocking. But the -- I wouldn't put this particularly all on destocking, but I would say that in the first quarter of last year, we had areas where our highest AUV products were sold that were stronger than the others. And so part of this is just base period comparisons driving some of this mix, which is, again, why we believe this is transitory and will work its way through as we go in the year.

嗯，我不記得去年具體披露了什麼。我的意思是去年季度是下降的，對吧，基於去庫存。但是，我不會把這一切都特別放在去庫存上，但我想說，去年第一季度，我們的 AUV 產品銷售最高的地區比其他地區更強勁。因此，這部分只是基期比較推動了一些這種組合，這也是為什麼我們相信這是暫時的，並將隨著我們今年的進展而發揮作用。

Please stand by for the next question. The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

請等待下一個問題。下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one, I just wanted to go back to Stephen's question on the Mineral Fiber volume being a little bit better than expected in the first quarter and the full year expectation remaining the same. I mean that would seem to imply that the back half outlook has gotten incrementally worse. So I just wanted to clarify that. And if so, what are you seeing that has changed your mind on that?

第一個，我只想回到斯蒂芬的問題，即第一季度礦物纖維產量略好於預期，而全年預期保持不變。我的意思是，這似乎意味著後半段的前景變得越來越糟。所以我只是想澄清這一點。如果是這樣，您看到了什麼改變了您的想法？

John, one thing that we did mention in with Stephen's question is some of the goodness that we saw in the first quarter, and we point to this is the inventory build in the retail channel, which will come out, right? So that's timing related. I wouldn't -- we wouldn't expect to hold that for the whole year. So we didn't mention that in Stephen's question, but that's another factor in this overall equation. And some of that goodness in the first quarter is timing related inventory build.

約翰，我們在斯蒂芬的問題中提到的一件事是我們在第一季度看到的一些好處，我們指出這是零售渠道的庫存建設，這將會出現，對吧？所以這與時間有關。我不會——我們不希望全年都保持這種狀態。所以我們在斯蒂芬的問題中沒有提到這一點，但這是整個方程中的另一個因素。第一季度的一些好處是與庫存建設相關的時機。

Got you. Okay. All right. And then on the digital growth initiative spending in Mineral Fiber. I mean is that a lever for you guys to potentially pull back on if your end markets were to soften more than expected?

明白你了。好的。好的。然後是礦物纖維的數字增長計劃支出。我的意思是，如果你們的終端市場疲軟程度超過預期，你們可能會利用這個槓桿嗎？

So I think we've done a tremendous amount of work and effort around making room, so that we can continue our digital investment. The traction that we're getting there is making a meaningful contribution to the growth of the business. So we've made room in our cost structure so that we could continue to do that. And again, we're, I think, appropriately balanced in our outlook for the rest of the year, given the uncertainty in the back half so that we don't have to pull additional levers like that.

因此，我認為我們在騰出空間方面做了大量的工作和努力，以便我們能夠繼續進行數字投資。我們所獲得的動力正在為業務增長做出有意義的貢獻。因此，我們在成本結構中騰出了空間，以便我們可以繼續這樣做。再說一次，我認為，考慮到下半年的不確定性，我們對今年剩餘時間的前景進行了適當的平衡，這樣我們就不必採取額外的槓桿措施。

I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Vic Grizzle for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。現在我想請維克·格里茲爾（Vic Grizzle）致閉幕詞。

Thank you. I just want to say thank you, everybody, for joining today. At the end of the first quarter, we feel like we're in a very different position than we were at the end of the first quarter last year. We're well positioned for tougher market conditions that we're out looking, and we feel good about the position that we're in and ready to perform in tougher economic conditions that we're out looking. So thank you again for joining today, and we look forward to talking to you in next quarter.

謝謝。我只想說謝謝大家今天的加入。在第一季度末，我們感覺我們的處境與去年第一季度末時的情況非常不同。我們已經做好了應對我們所面臨的更加嚴峻的市場條件的準備，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意，並準備好在我們所面臨的更加嚴峻的經濟條件下表現。再次感謝您今天的加入，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。再見。