艾利丹尼森 (AVY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。（操作員指令）

Welcome to Avery Dennison's, earnings conference call for the fourth quarter and full year ended on December 28, 2024. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay after 4 PM Eastern time today and until mid-night eastern time, February 5, 2025.

歡迎參加艾利丹尼森截至 2024 年 12 月 28 日的第四季及全年財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音，並將於今天東部時間下午 4 點之後至 2025 年 2 月 5 日東部時間午夜之前提供重播。

To access the replay, please dial 180-770-2030 or 1609-800 for international callers. The conference ID number is 585-5706 and I'd like to turn the call over to John Eble, Avery Dennison's Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

如需收聽重播，請撥打 180-770-2030 或國際電話 1609-800。會議 ID 號碼是 585-5706，我想將電話轉給艾利丹尼森財務和投資者關係副總裁 John Eble。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jeanine. Please note that throughout today's discussion, we'll be making references to non-GAAP financial measures. The non-GAAP measures that we use are defined, qualified and reconciled from GAAP on schedules A-4 to A-8 of the financial statements, accompanying today's earnings release. We remind you that we'll make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views and estimates about our future performance and financial results. These forward-looking statements are made subject to the safe harbor statement included in today's earnings release.

謝謝你，珍妮。請注意，在今天的討論中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們使用的非 GAAP 指標是在今天的收益報告中附帶的財務報表附表 A-4 至 A-8 中定義、限定和與 GAAP 進行協調的。我們提醒您，我們將做出某些預測性陳述，以反映我們對未來業績和財務結果的當前看法和估計。這些前瞻性陳述受今天的收益報告中所包含的安全港聲明約束。

On the call today are Deon Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Danny Allouche, Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer, and Interim Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Deon Stander；以及資深副總裁、首席策略與企業發展長兼臨時財務長 Danny Allouche。

I'll now turn the call over to Deon.

我現在將電話轉給 Deon。

Thanks, John. And hello, everyone.

謝謝，約翰。大家好。

I'm pleased to report another year of excellent progress towards our long-term strategic and financial goals. For the year, sales grew 5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 130 basis points and adjusted EPS grew 19% at the high end of our original guidance.

我很高興地報告，我們在實現長期策略和財務目標方面又取得了巨大的進展。全年銷售額成長 5%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 130 個基點，調整後的 EPS 成長了 19%，達到我們最初預期的高點。

Both our Materials and Solutions groups delivered strong top and bottom line results. With our base businesses recovering from downstream inventory destocking in 2023 as expected, strong productivity-driven margin expansion and our high-value categories delivered strong growth. Once again, demonstrating the strength of the overall franchise.

我們的材料和解決方案部門均實現了強勁的營收和利潤表現。隨著我們的基礎業務如預期在 2023 年從下游庫存去庫存中恢復，強勁的生產力驅動的利潤率擴張和我們的高價值類別實現了強勁增長。再一次展現了球隊整體的實力。

Over the long term, our overriding objective remains the same, to deliver GDP-plus growth and top quartile returns on capital, a recipe for superior value creation. In this context, we continue to make strong progress against our 2025 financial targets despite multiple macro disruptions in recent years. Recall, this represents our fourth set of long-term goals, after meeting or beating our previous three sets.

從長遠來看，我們的首要目標始終不變，即實現GDP以上的成長和最高四分位數的資本回報率，這是創造卓越價值的秘訣。在此背景下，儘管近年來出現多次宏觀動盪，但我們仍在實現 2025 年財務目標方面繼續取得強勁進展。回想一下，這是我們在達到或超過前三組目標之後的第四組長期目標。

As you can see on Slide 6, we have a proven track record delivering GDP-plus growth, margin expansion and top quartile returns across cycles including delivering 9% earnings growth, excluding currency so far in this current cycle.

正如您在幻燈片 6 上看到的，我們擁有良好的業績記錄，能夠在各個週期內實現超過 GDP 的增長、利潤率的擴大和最高四分位的回報，其中包括在當前週期內實現 9% 的盈利增長（不包括貨幣）。

Strategically, we continue to drive outsized growth in high-value categories, enabling us to shift the portfolio to become more differentiated with higher growth and higher margin. These categories now represent almost half of our portfolio and accounted for roughly 3 points of organic sales growth annually over the past 4 years. Our high-value platforms, excluding Intelligent Labels, accounted for roughly 2 points, and intelligent labels accounted for roughly 1 point.

從策略上講，我們繼續推動高價值類別的超額成長，使我們能夠轉變投資組合，以實現更高的成長和更高的利潤率，從而變得更加差異化。這些類別目前占我們產品組合的近一半，並且在過去 4 年中每年約佔有機銷售額成長 3 個百分點。我們的高價值平台（不包括智慧標籤）約佔2點，智慧標籤大約佔1點。

More broadly, our consistent performance reflects the strength and the durability of our portfolio the resilience of our industry-leading market positions, our agile and talented global team and the consistent execution of our key strategies. This has and continues to provide us multiple levers to deliver strong results and compound earnings in various scenarios across cycles.

更廣泛地說，我們持續的業績表現反映了我們產品組合的實力和持久性、我們行業領先市場地位的韌性、我們敏捷而才華橫溢的全球團隊以及我們關鍵策略的持續執行。這已經並將繼續為我們提供多種槓桿，以便在各個週期的各種情況下實現強勁的業績和複合收益。

Our playbook is working well as we execute on our five strategic pillars across both our primary businesses. Driving outsized growth in high-value categories, growing profitably in our base businesses, leading at the intersection of the physical and digital, effectively allocating capital and relentlessly focusing on productivity and leading in an environmentally and socially responsible manner.

當我們在兩個主要業務中執行五大策略支柱時，我們的策略運作良好。推動高價值類別的超額成長，實現基礎業務的獲利成長，引領實體經濟與數位經濟的融合，有效配置資本，堅持不懈地專注於生產力，並以對環境和社會負責的方式引領。

In Materials group, our highest returns business, we delivered strong top line growth in 2024, driven by significant volume growth as our markets recovered from inventory de-stocking in 2023, with strong margin expansion. This reflects continued above-average growth from our high-value categories and presence in emerging markets, two key catalysts for growth over the long term and ongoing contribution from productivity improvement initiatives.

在我們回報最高的業務材料集團，我們在 2024 年實現了強勁的營收成長，這得益於我們的市場從 2023 年去庫存化中恢復而實現的銷量大幅增長，利潤率也大幅提升。這反映了我們高價值類別的持續高於平均水平的成長和在新興市場的存在，這是長期成長的兩個關鍵催化劑，以及生產力改進舉措的持續貢獻。

Our leadership position in our base business remains strong. We continue to differentiate ourselves through quality and service, strong material science and process technology capabilities and sustainable innovation over the long term. This foundation, along with the breadth of our overall portfolio, provides the platform for us to drive growth as we balance price, volume, mix and share while reducing complexity and tailoring our go-to-market strategies.

我們在基礎業務中的領導地位依然強勁。我們將繼續透過品質和服務、強大的材料科學和工藝技術能力以及長期可持續的創新來保持差異化。這個基礎，加上我們整體產品組合的廣度，為我們提供了推動成長的平台，因為我們可以平衡價格、數量、組合和份額，同時降低複雜性並客製化我們的市場進入策略。

Our strategy to expand our position in high-value categories, which makes up more than one-third of materials group sales, including specialty and durable labels, Graphics and Reflective Solutions and industrial tapes is working. We delivered mid-single-digit organic growth for these products in 2024. We continue to help our customers address complex challenges.

我們的策略是擴大我們在高價值類別中的地位，這些類別佔材料集團銷售額的三分之一以上，包括特殊和耐用標籤、圖形和反光解決方案以及工業膠帶，這項策略正在發揮作用。2024年，這些產品實現了中等個位數的有機成長。我們持續幫助客戶應對複雜的挑戰。

Our efforts in 2024 resulted in new innovations and portfolio extensions that reduced supply chain waste, extend product performance and lifespan and foster packaging circularity. A couple of highlights include introducing the first [recite-class] certified label solution for high-density polyethylene consumer packaging to help brands address growing packaging recyclability and waste regulations, and extending our portfolio of linerless solutions to address a long-standing productivity challenge without converting partners.

我們在 2024 年的努力帶來了新的創新和產品組合擴展，減少了供應鏈浪費、延長了產品性能和使用壽命並促進了包裝的循環性。其中幾個亮點包括：推出首個針對高密度聚乙烯消費包裝的[recite-class]認證標籤解決方案，幫助品牌應對日益增長的包裝可回收性和廢物法規問題，並擴展我們的無襯墊解決方案組合，以解決長期存在的生產力挑戰，而無需轉換合作夥伴。

On the productivity front, Materials Group continues to consistently deliver. Our focus on material re-engineering, lean operating principles and fixed cost innovation remain key to our success, not just as a means to expand margins, but also to enhance our competitiveness, particularly in our base business and provide a source of funding for re-investment.

在生產力方面，材料集團持續保持穩定的表現。我們對材料再造、精實營運原則和固定成本創新的關注仍然是我們成功的關鍵，這不僅是擴大利潤的手段，而且還能增強我們的競爭力，特別是在我們的基礎業務中，並為再投資提供資金來源。

In Solutions Group, we delivered strong top line growth and margin expansion, driven by strength in the base business as apparel industry volumes normalized following destocking in 2023 and growth in high-value solutions. Overall, apparel growth was strong across all product customer and format categories, including performance, fast fashion and value.

在解決方案集團，我們實現了強勁的營收成長和利潤率擴大，這得益於基礎業務的強勁成長，因為服裝產業在 2023 年去庫存後銷量恢復正常，以及高價值解決方案的成長。整體而言，服裝所有產品客戶和形式類別（包括性能、快時尚和價值）均實現強勁成長。

Within high-value solutions, which delivers higher-than-average segment margins, Embelex grew roughly 25% for the year, including the impact of acquisitions. As a reminder, this growth platform is driven by increased consumer personalization and fan engagement in team sports and growth in performance in the latter category.

在高價值解決方案領域，其利潤率高於平均水平，包括收購的影響，Embelex 今年的成長率約為 25%。提醒一下，這個成長平台是由消費者個人化和團隊運動愛好者參與度的提高以及後一類運動表現的成長所推動的。

We continue to invest organically and in-organically in this now roughly $325 million platform that has grown roughly 15% annually on an organic basis over the last 6 years. Vestcom, our market-leading suite of productivity and media solutions for the retail shelf edge delivered softer than initially anticipated sales in 2024, primarily on lower volume in the drugstore channel driven by store closures.

我們繼續對這個目前價值約 3.25 億美元的平台進行有機和非有機投資，該平台在過去 6 年中每年的有機成長率約為 15%。Vestcom 是我們針對零售貨架邊緣的市場領先的生產力和媒體解決方案套件，其 2024 年的銷售表現不如最初預期，主要原因是商店關閉導致藥店通路銷售下降。

I'm pleased to announce that we recently signed a new partnership with CVS Health to launch Vestcom shelf edge solution chain-wide with rollout in the first half of 2025. We expect Vestcom will deliver strong growth in 2025, continuing to deliver above-average growth over the long term.

我很高興地宣布，我們最近與 CVS Health 簽署了新的合作夥伴關係，將在整個連鎖店範圍內推出 Vestcom 貨架邊緣解決方案，並於 2025 年上半年推出。我們預計 Vestcom 將在 2025 年實現強勁成長，並在長期內繼續實現高於平均的成長。

Turning to enterprise-wide Intelligent Labels. As you can see on Slide 11, we grew 9% on an organic basis in 2024, below our initial expectations reaching roughly $900 million in revenue, including currency translation. Strong growth in apparel category is up roughly 20% and general retail categories up more than 40% and was partially offset by a decline in logistics as we lapped the largest RFID program single wave rollout in the industry's history in 2023.

轉向企業範圍的智慧標籤。正如您在投影片 11 上看到的，我們在 2024 年的有機成長率為 9%，低於我們最初的預期，包括貨幣換算在內的收入約為 9 億美元。服裝類別的強勁增長約為 20%，一般零售類別增長超過 40%，但由於我們在 2023 年完成了行業歷史上最大的 RFID 計劃單波推廣，因此物流的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。

Sales and logistics were lower in 2024 on the year-on-year comparison to the initial program build, typical share normalization and the impact from packages that did not receive RFID-enabled tags earlier in the year. We continue to be the significant majority share provider for this customer on the strength of our partnership and value creation.

與最初的計劃建設、典型的份額正常化以及年初未收到 RFID 標籤的包裹的影響相比，2024 年的銷售和物流同比有所下降。憑藉強大的合作夥伴關係和價值創造能力，我們將繼續成為該客戶的主要股份提供者。

Importantly, as we did when we first drove adoption in apparel, we've also captured multiple learnings on the adoption dynamics in this new category that will positively support active pilot expansion and likely conversion in 2026.

重要的是，正如我們首次推動服裝領域的採用時所做的那樣，我們也獲得了有關這一新類別的採用動態的多項經驗，這將積極支持積極的試點擴展和 2026 年可能實現的轉換。

In food, we announced a strategic collaboration with Kroger in October, focused on making possible more frequent and accurate inventory information to maximize freshness, reducing waste in perishable categories and improving the consumer and associate experience. The collaboration will begin rolling out in the bakery department across the Kroger network in 2025. This will be the first grocer moving to rollout for action level RFID tagging, and represents a significant step forward for our Intelligent Labels platform and the industry overall in a very large addressable market with significant opportunity for growth in the years to come.

在食品領域，我們在 10 月宣布與 Kroger 建立戰略合作關係，重點是提供更頻繁、更準確的庫存信息，以最大限度地保證新鮮度，減少易腐爛食品的浪費，並改善消費者和員工的體驗。該合作將於 2025 年開始在 Kroger 網路的烘焙部門進行。這將是第一家推出行動級 RFID 標籤的雜貨商，標誌著我們的智慧標籤平台和整個行業在一個非常大的潛在市場中邁出了重要一步，未來幾年將有巨大的成長機會。

Across the enterprise, we expect to deliver 10% to 15% growth in Intelligent Labels in 2025, contributing 1 points to 1.5 points to total company growth. The adoption continues in both retail and newer categories. We expect end market and existing customers to deliver roughly 10% growth, and are targeting pipeline conversion to deliver roughly another 5% growth. We expect the pace of growth will increase throughout the year due to the targeted timing of pipeline conversions of key programs.

在整個企業中，我們預計到 2025 年智慧標籤將成長 10% 至 15%，為公司整體成長貢獻 1 個百分點至 1.5 個百分點。這種採用在零售和新類別中均持續進行。我們預計終端市場和現有客戶將實現約 10% 的成長，並計劃透過通路轉換實現約 5% 的另外成長。我們預計，由於重點項目管道轉換的時間安排具有針對性，全年的成長速度將會加快。

We continue to believe that physical items will need a digital identity to help solve challenges such as labor efficiency and supply chain effectiveness, waste reduction, circularity and transparency and to help better connect brands and their consumers, and our competitive advantages here are clear.

我們始終相信，實體需要數位身分來幫助解決勞動效率和供應鏈效率、減少浪費、循環性和透明度等挑戰，並幫助更好地連接品牌和消費者，我們在這裡的競爭優勢是顯而易見的。

We provide labeling materials that decorate and provide information on most of the world's items, and we are the market leaders in the most ubiquitous, broadly applicable sensing technology in UHF RFID. This, combined with our innovation leadership and our go-to-market strategy, uniquely positions us to lead and win in multiple new categories with more than 250 billion units of opportunity at the nascent point of industry growth. As such, we will continue to invest to capture the significant opportunity ahead as we grow the overall industry through both the Solutions and Materials Group.

我們提供用於裝飾全球大多數物品並提供其資訊的標籤材料，我們是超高頻 RFID 中最普遍、應用最廣泛的感測技術的市場領導者。這一點，加上我們的創新領導力和市場進入策略，使我們在行業成長的初期，佔據了領先地位並贏得多個新類別的勝利，擁有超過 2500 億個單位的機會。因此，我們將繼續投資，抓住未來的重大機遇，透過解決方案和材料集團推動整個產業的發展。

Stepping back, as I reflect after five quarters as CEO, my conviction in the earnings power and returns of our franchise remains high. We have multiple levers, individually and collectively, that we have proven over time and through cycles can consistently drive outperformance for our stakeholders.

回顧過去，回顧擔任執行長的五個季度以來，我對我們的特許經營的盈利能力和回報仍然充滿信心。我們擁有多個槓桿，無論是單獨的還是集體的，我們已經證明，隨著時間的推移和週期的推移，這些槓桿可以持續為我們的利害關係人帶來卓越的績效。

We are exposed to diverse and growing markets, largely anchored in consumer staples. We are industry leaders in our primary businesses with clear competitive advantages in scale and innovation. We have a strong foundation in our base business delivering GDP growth and strong free cash flow. We have clear catalysts for significant long-term growth in emerging markets and in high-value categories that are competitively differentiated with higher margins and which are increasingly a larger part of our portfolio.

我們面臨多樣化和不斷成長的市場，主要集中在消費必需品領域。我們在主營業務領域處於產業領先地位，規模、創新等競爭優勢明顯。我們的基礎業務基礎牢固，實現了 GDP 成長和強勁的自由現金流。我們有明確的催化劑來實現新興市場和高價值類別的長期顯著成長，這些類別具有更高的利潤率和差異化的競爭優勢，並且在我們的產品組合中所佔的比重也越來越大。

We have an engaged global team with a strong innovation and productivity culture that continually learns is agile and adjusts to win. And we have a strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to capital allocation that provides us significant investment flexibility to drive earnings growth and expand EVA.

我們擁有一支敬業的全球團隊，具有強大的創新和生產力文化，不斷學習、敏捷並調整以取得勝利。我們擁有強勁的資產負債表和嚴謹的資本配置方法，這為我們提供了極大的投資靈活性，以推動獲利成長和擴大 EVA。

Taken together, these levers will enable us to not only continue to deliver on the potential of our business but also expand that potential moving forward. We remain confident that we will continue to generate superior value creation through a balance of GDP plus growth, margin expansion and top quartile returns over the long term. In 2025, we expect to again deliver strong earnings growth, with adjusted EPS of $9.80 to $10.20, up roughly 10%, excluding currency.

綜合起來，這些槓桿不僅能讓我們繼續發揮業務潛力，也能讓我們在未來擴大這項潛力。我們堅信，透過長期實現 GDP 成長、利潤率擴大和最高四分位回報的平衡，我們將繼續創造卓越的價值。到 2025 年，我們預計將再次實現強勁的獲利成長，調整後的每股盈餘為 9.80 美元至 10.20 美元，不包括貨幣因素，成長約 10%。

I want to thank our entire team for their continued resilience, focus on excellence and commitment to addressing the unique challenges in 2024. And with that, I'm now going to hand over the call to Danny Allouche. As you likely know, Danny has been with the company for 14 years, leading strategy and M&A, and has been a critical thought partner for our leadership team over the last decade. I'd like to thank Danny for stepping in as interim CFO while Greg recovers, and I'm happy to let you know that Greg has made great progress, and we look forward to his likely return in the spring.

我要感謝我們整個團隊的持續堅韌、對卓越的追求以及致力於應對 2024 年獨特挑戰的努力。說完這些，我現在將電話交給丹尼·阿盧什 (Danny Allouche)。您可能知道，丹尼已在公司工作 14 年，領導策略和併購工作，並且在過去十年中一直是我們領導團隊的重要思想合作夥伴。我要感謝丹尼在格雷格康復期間擔任臨時財務官，我很高興地告訴你們，格雷格已經取得了很大的進步，我們期待他能在春天回歸。

Thanks, Deon, and hello, everyone. I'll first provide some additional color on our fourth quarter results and our progress against our long-term financial targets, then walk you through our 2025 outlook.

謝謝，Deon，大家好。我首先將進一步介紹我們第四季度的業績以及我們實現長期財務目標的進展情況，然後向您介紹我們的 2025 年展望。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered strong adjusted earnings per share of $2.38, in line with our expectations, up sequentially and up 10% compared to prior year driven by benefits from higher volume and productivity. Compared to prior year, sales were up 3.5% ex currency and 3.3% on an organic basis as mid-single-digit volume growth was partially offset by deflation related price reductions.

第四季度，我們實現了強勁的調整後每股收益 2.38 美元，符合我們的預期，環比增長，比去年同期增長 10%，這得益於產量和生產率的提高。與前一年相比，銷售額（扣除匯率因素）成長 3.5%，有機成長 3.3%，因為中等個位數的銷售成長被通貨緊縮相關的價格下降部分抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA margins were strong at 16.4% in the quarter, up 40 basis points compared to prior year, with adjusted EBITDA dollars up 6% compared to prior year. Regarding productivity, we delivered $14 million of restructuring savings in the fourth quarter and $63 million of savings for the full year, continuing our track record of optimizing our cost structure while investing to drive profitable growth. We generated strong adjusted free cash flow of $280 million in the fourth quarter and $700 million in the full year, with solid working capital results, resulting in a 100% adjusted free cash flow conversion.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率強勁達到 16.4%，比上年同期成長 40 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 金額比上年同期成長 6%。在生產力方面，我們在第四季度實現了 1400 萬美元的重組節約，全年實現了 6300 萬美元的節約，延續了我們在優化成本結構的同時進行投資以推動盈利增長的良好記錄。我們在第四季度產生了 2.8 億美元的強勁調整後自由現金流，全年產生了 7 億美元的強勁調整後自由現金流，加上穩健的營運資本業績，調整後自由現金流轉換率達到 100%。

As you can see on Slide 12, we continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy. Our balance sheet remains strong with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of two at the end of the year. This enables us to continue to invest organically in our business steadily and consistently grow our dividend, make acquisitions that help accelerate our strategies and strategically buy back stock to maximize our returns.

正如您在投影片 12 上看到的，我們繼續執行嚴謹的資本配置策略。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，年底淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2。這使我們能夠繼續穩步地對我們的業務進行有機投資，並持續增加我們的股息，進行有助於加速我們策略的收購，並策略性地回購股票以最大化我們的回報。

In 2024, we returned $525 million to our shareholders through the combination of dividends and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, we significantly accelerated our pace of share buyback, purchasing roughly 700,000 shares, more than half of our re-purchases for the year. We will continue to execute our capital allocation strategy and take advantage of market opportunities.

2024年，我們透過股利和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還了5.25億美元。第四季度，我們大幅加快了股票回購步伐，回購了約70萬股，佔全年回購量的一半以上。我們將繼續執行我們的資本配置策略並利用市場機會。

Turning to the segment results for the fourth quarter. Materials Group sales were up 4% ex-currency and on an organic basis, driven by mid-single-digit volume growth, partially offset by deflation related price reductions. Organically, high-value categories were up high single digits, driven by strength in specialty and durable labels and the base business was up low single digits. Overall, label volume was modestly below our expectations, driven by softer demand and customer managing their year-end working capital.

談到第四季的分部業績。材料集團銷售額以匯率計算內生性成長 4%，這得益於中等個位數的銷售成長，但部分抵銷了通貨緊縮導致的價格下降的影響。從有機角度來看，高價值類別實現了高個位數成長，這得益於專業和耐用標籤的強勁成長，而基礎業務則實現了低個位數成長。整體而言，由於需求疲軟和客戶管理年底營運資金，標籤銷售量略低於我們的預期。

Looking at label materials organic volume trends versus prior year in the quarter, North America was up mid-single digits, Europe was up low single digits, Asia Pacific was up low single digits and Latin America was up mid-single digits. Also, compared to Q4 last year on an organic basis, Graphics and Reflective sales were up low single -- low to single digits, and performance tapes and materials were comparable to prior year.

與去年同期相比，查看本季標籤材料的有機銷售趨勢，北美地區增長了中等個位數，歐洲增長了低個位數，亞太地區增長了低個位數，拉丁美洲增長了中等個位數。此外，與去年第四季相比，以有機基礎計算，圖形和反光材料的銷售額增長了低個位數至個位數，性能膠帶和材料與去年同期相當。

Materials Group delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 17% in the fourth quarter, up 80 basis points compared to prior year, driven by higher volume and mix and benefits from productivity partially offset by the net impact of pricing and raw material input costs.

材料集團在第四季度實現了強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，達到 17%，比去年同期增長 80 個基點，這得益於產量和產品組合的增加以及生產率的提高，但被定價和原材料投入成本的淨影響部分抵消。

Regarding raw material costs. Globally, we saw very modest deflation sequentially in our fourth quarter and our current outlook is for a similar trend sequentially in the first quarter. Where applicable, we have passed along price reductions to our customers.

關於原料成本。從全球來看，我們在第四季看到了環比非常溫和的通貨緊縮，目前預計第一季也會出現類似的趨勢。在適用的情況下，我們已將價格降低轉嫁給我們的客戶。

Shifting now to Solutions Group. Sales were up 3% ex-currency and on an organic basis, with base solutions up mid-teens in line with our expectations as the pair of volume remained normalized, and our high-value solutions were down mid-single digits below our expectations. Within high-value solutions, Vestcom declined low single digits, but grew late in the quarter, and we expect strong growth in the first half of 2025, partially driven by the new agreement we signed with a leading US health solution company that Deon mentioned earlier.

現在轉向解決方案組。銷售額按匯率和有機基礎計算增長了 3%，其中基礎解決方案增長了 15% 左右，符合我們的預期，因為銷量保持正常化，而我們的高價值解決方案比我們的預期下降了 5% 左右。在高價值解決方案中，Vestcom 下降了個位數，但在本季度末實現了增長，我們預計 2025 年上半年將實現強勁增長，部分原因是我們與 Deon 之前提到的一家領先的美國健康解決方案公司簽署的新協議。

In our enterprise-wide intelligent labels, while sales were up 9% for the year, sales were down low single digits for the fourth quarter, below our expectations, with strong growth in the materials channel and mid-single-digit decline in solutions. We delivered roughly 15% growth in apparel and more than 40% in general retail were more than offset by a decline in logistics.

在我們的企業範圍的智慧標籤中，雖然銷售額全年增長了 9%，但第四季度的銷售額卻下降了個位數，低於我們的預期，其中材料渠道增長強勁，而解決方案則出現中等個位數的下降。我們的服裝業務實現了約 15% 的成長，一般零售業務實現了 40% 以上的成長，但都被物流業務的下滑所抵消。

Solutions Group delivered strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.8%, down 40 basis points compared to prior year as benefits from productivity and higher volume were more than offset by higher employee-related costs, investment and mix.

解決方案集團實現強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，達到 17.8%，較上年下降 40 個基點，因為生產力和產量增加帶來的好處被更高的員工相關成本、投資和組合所抵消。

Now shifting to our long-term performance. Some of you may recall that we embarked on our transformation strategy back in 2012, initially focused on strengthening our foundation, improving profitability and shoring up our portfolio and balance sheet. We then began to take a much more segmented approach to our strategy, improving our growth and margins in our base business as well as significantly increasing our focus on higher-value products and solutions as a mean to further accelerate our growth and expand margins.

現在轉向我們的長期表現。你們中的一些人可能還記得，我們​​早在 2012 年就開始實施轉型策略，最初重點是加強我們的基礎、提高獲利能力以及鞏固我們的投資組合和資產負債表。然後，我們開始採取更細分的策略，提高基礎業務的成長和利潤率，同時顯著增加對高價值產品和解決方案的關注，以進一步加速成長和擴大利潤率。

Initially, our focus was organic until we earn the right to leverage strategic acquisitions as a means to accelerate our strategies as well as to enter attractive adjacencies. And over the last couple of years, we've begun to build a new chapter, including leveraging both of our businesses to connect the physical and digital.

最初，我們的重點是有機的，直到我們獲得利用策略收購的權利，作為加速我們的策略以及進入有吸引力的鄰接領域的手段。在過去的幾年裡，我們開始開創新的篇章，包括利用我們的兩項業務來連接實體和數位。

Throughout this journey, we have relied on our heritage of excellent execution, continuous improvement and productivity which enables us to consistently deliver strong results in multiple ways and in various scenarios, all while we continue to deploy capital in a disciplined manner, invest organically in our business, consistently grow our dividend, acquire attractive assets at good value and earn a strong return on our share buyback. This approach continues to serve us well in the 2025 cycle despite having to manage through compounding crisis.

在整個發展歷程中，我們憑藉卓越執行力、持續改進和高生產力的傳統，能夠以多種方式和在各種情況下持續提供強勁業績，同時我們繼續以嚴謹的方式部署資本，有機地投資於我們的業務，持續增加股息，以良好的價值收購有吸引力的資產，並在股票回購中獲得豐厚的回報。儘管我們必須應對複合危機，但這種方法在 2025 年周期中仍能繼續發揮良好作用。

For the first 4 years of this cycle, our sales growth, excluding currency, was up 7% annually, above our target of 5%, including 2 points of growth from M&A, a key part of our strategy over the long term. Over the same period, organic growth was up 5% annually with high-value categories contributing roughly 3 points of growth. Adjusted EBITDA dollars grew roughly 9% annually excluding currency translation, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 110 basis points to 16.4% in 2024, ahead of targets.

在這週期的前四年，不包括匯率因素，我們的銷售額每年增長 7%，高於我們 5% 的目標，其中 2 個百分點的增長來自併購，這是我們長期戰略的關鍵部分。在同一時期，有機成長率達到 5%，其中高價值類別貢獻了約 3 個百分點的成長。調整後的 EBITDA（不含貨幣換算）年增長率約為 9%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 2024 年擴大 110 個基點至 16.4%，超出目標。

As for adjusted EPS, we delivered 7.4% growth annually. While our reported results are lower than we have targeted for the cycle, we are achieving our strategic objectives in this period. Excluding currency and the impact of acquisition intangibles amortization expense for acquisitions that closed after our target was established, adjusted EPS growth was up more than 10% annually.

至於調整後的每股收益，我們實現了每年 7.4% 的成長。雖然我們的報告結果低於我們在本週期所設定的目標，但我們在此期間正在實現我們的策略目標。排除貨幣因素和在我們確定目標後完成的收購的收購無形資產攤銷費用的影響，調整後的每股收益年增長率超過 10%。

Finally, our return on total capital in 2024 was strong at 16%, continuing to be top quartile. As always, our focus will continue to be on optimizing the balance of growth, margin and capital efficiency to drive incremental EVA over the long term.

最後，我們 2024 年的總資本報酬率強勁達到 16%，持續位居前四分位。像往常一樣，我們將繼續專注於優化成長、利潤率和資本效率的平衡，以長期推動增量 EVA。

Now shifting to our outlook for 2025. For 2025, overall, we anticipate continued GDP plus growth and expanding margins with adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $9.80 to $10.20, up 7% to 12%, excluding the impact of currency translation. We have outlined the full year contributing factors on Slide 13 of our supplemental presentation materials.

現在我們來展望一下 2025 年。整體而言，對於 2025 年，我們預期 GDP 將持續成長、利潤率將持續擴大，調整後的每股盈餘將在 9.80 美元至 10.20 美元之間，成長 7% 至 12%，不包括貨幣換算的影響。我們在補充簡報資料的第 13 張投影片中概述了全年的貢獻因素。

To highlight a few of the key drivers of our guidance, we anticipate 3% to 4% organic sales growth with mid-single-digit volume growth. We expect our base business will continue to grow at roughly GDP levels in high-value categories to grow high single digits.

為了強調我們指導意見中的幾個關鍵驅動因素，我們預計有機銷售額將成長 3% 至 4%，銷量將成長中等個位數。我們預計，我們的基礎業務將繼續以與高價值類別的 GDP 水準大致相同的速度成長，實現高個位數成長。

Assuming current rates, we estimate a roughly $30 million headwind to operating income from currency translation. We estimate restructuring savings net of transition costs of roughly $40 million. We will continue to target roughly 100% adjusted free cash flow conversion, and we will be migrating for our 52- or 53-week fiscal year to a calendar year, which will add roughly two extra working days at the end of Q4 2025.

假設以當前匯率計算，我們預期貨幣換算將為營業收入帶來約 3,000 萬美元的阻力。我們估計，扣除過渡成本後的重組節餘約為 4,000 萬美元。我們將繼續以大約 100% 的調整後自由現金流轉換為目標，我們將把 52 或 53 週的財政年度轉換為日曆年，這將在 2025 年第四季末增加約兩個工作日。

In Q1, we expect adjusted earnings per share will be up slightly versus prior year, including a large currency headwind. As 2025 progresses, we expect the pace of earnings growth will increase each quarter driven by high-value solutions, rollouts, base label volume growth and productivity actions earn a year, taking full effect in the second half.

在第一季度，我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將較上年略有上升，其中包括龐大的貨幣逆風。隨著 2025 年的到來，我們預計獲利成長速度將在每季加快，這主要得益於高價值解決方案、產品推出、基本標籤數量成長和生產力行動的推動，並在下半年全面發揮作用。

In summary, we delivered strong results in 2024 at the high end of our original guidance and expect to deliver strong results in the year ahead. At our 2025 mid-point, we will deliver sales and growth -- sales growth and margin above our long-term targets and generate approximately 9% adjusted EPS CAGR ex-currency all while keeping our top quartile returns. This also positions us well to deliver on the most recent 2028 targets we laid out in September. We remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver exceptional value to all of our stakeholders through our strategies of long-term profitable growth and disciplined capital allocation.

總而言之，我們在 2024 年取得了強勁的業績，達到了我們最初指引的高位，並預計在未來一年也將取得強勁的業績。到 2025 年，我們將實現銷售和成長 - 銷售成長和利潤率將高於我們的長期目標，並產生約 9% 的調整後每股收益複合年增長率（不含貨幣），同時保持我們最高四分位數的回報率。這也使我們有能力實現 9 月制定的最新 2028 年目標。我們堅信，透過長期獲利成長和嚴格的資本配置策略，我們有能力繼續為所有利害關係人提供卓越的價值。

Now we'll open up the call for your questions.

現在我們將開始回答大家的提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

謝謝。（操作員指示）美國銀行，喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks everybody. Good morning. My question, can you talk specifically about what your assumptions are for growth and logistics within IL for 2025? And just, given the headlines today, there's news about a large a customer of yours seeing a large pull back in volume from one of their customers. What effect if any is that having on your your IL growth plans, both in '25 and longer term?

謝謝大家。早安.我的問題是，您能具體談談您對 2025 年 IL 的成長和物流的假設嗎？並且，從今天的頭條新聞來看，有消息稱，您的一個大客戶發現他們的一個客戶的交易量大幅下降。這對您的 IL 成長計劃（包括 '25 年及更長遠的未來）有何影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, George. This is Deon. Thank you for the question. We, our plan for -- particularly in logistics segment is that we would assume slight decline between '24 and '25. And, and specifically as it relates to this customer, the impact that, that you mentioned, we have already factored that in discussion with our customer into our 10% to 15% IL growth range.

你好，喬治。這是 Deon。感謝您的提問。我們的計畫——特別是在物流領域——是預計24年至25年間會出現小幅下滑。而且，具體到與這位客戶的關係，您提到的影響，我們在與客戶的討論中已經將其納入了 10% 至 15% 的 IL 增長範圍。

As part of our partnership agreement, we have aligned volumes for 2024 -- from 2024 to 2025. And and we're not assuming any further adoptions during the 2025 calendar, as I pointed out, more likely that those adoptions will continue in 2026. I will say that the experiences that we've learned through this initial adoption, this first category and the taking [the learners] that we've taken from it are going to really provide impetus for us as we go to the pilot phase that we with all the other major logistics providers.

作為合作協議的一部分，我們已經調整了 2024 年（從 2024 年到 2025 年）的產量。而且，我們並不認為 2025 年還會有任何進一步的收養，正如我所指出的那樣，這些收養更有可能在 2026 年繼續進行。我想說的是，我們透過這次初次採用、第一個類別以及從中吸收的學習者所獲得的經驗將真正為我們與所有其他主要物流供應商一起進入試點階段提供動力。

Thank you. [George] --

謝謝。[喬治]——

Yeah. Hey guys, good morning. Danny, welcome to the call and that's also great news. Yeah, that you shared on Greg as well. So I guess, first off, on the material segment, you know, what are you embedding for core sales growth for 2025? And how does that break down between volume and price?

是的。嘿，大家早安。丹尼，歡迎接聽電話，這也是個好消息。是的，您也和 Greg 分享過。所以我想，首先，在材料領域，您知道，您為 2025 年的核心銷售成長設定了什麼目標嗎？那麼數量和價格之間是如何分割的呢？

Hi, [George]. Yeah. So our assumptions for 2025 and our guidance range are really based at the macro starting point and we're factoring in not much change in GDP overall between ['24 and '25] based on the recent most recent forecast. And actually more particularly if you look at the forecast for retail volumes globally, they are slightly up in '25 versus '24 but still roughly at that 1% level, overall feedback from our customers actually.

你好，[喬治]。是的。因此，我們對 2025 年的假設和指導範圍實際上是基於宏觀起點，並且根據最近的預測，我們認為 ['24 年至 '25 年] 期間整體 GDP 不會發生太大變化。實際上，更具體地說，如果你看看全球零售量的預測，2025 年的零售量較 2024 年略有上升，但仍大致保持在 1% 的水平，這實際上是我們客戶的整體反饋。

And from end customers, depending on, of course, the end segment largely mirrors this and I suspect that reflects some of the degree of caution that is still out there both at the macro level, some of the policy level and some of the geo-political level as well. So our 3% to 4% range assumes GDP growth in the base businesses at the company level, somewhat adjusted for apparel, cannibalization in IL and in the materials business. We're assuming kind of mid single digit volume growth and a little bit of price within that.

從最終客戶的角度來看，當然，最終部分在很大程度上反映了這一點，我懷疑這反映了在宏觀層面，政策層面和地緣政治層面仍然存在的某種程度的謹慎。因此，我們的 3% 到 4% 的範圍假設公司層級基礎業務的 GDP 成長，並根據服裝、IL 的蠶食和材料業務進行一定調整。我們預計銷售量將以中位數個位數成長，價格也將略有上漲。

Thank you. Jeffrey Zekauskas, JP Morgan Chase.

謝謝。摩根大通的 Jeffrey Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. Can you talk about raw material cost inflation or deflation for 2025?

非常感謝。能談談2025年原物料成本通膨或通貨緊縮的情況嗎？

Yeah, thanks, Jeff. So overall from a material inflation perspective, we're seeing a stable environment slight, like I said in my remarks, slightly slight deflation in Q4 and we expect to be slight deflation also in Q1 but overall stable environment into 2025. From a raw material price relationship. We think that the cycle is pretty much over. And so we are kind of caught up that said on a year over year basis, we still see some raw negative raw material pricing. In our model in our model for 2025. Given the time lag between the time we pass prices on a significant deflation we saw at the end of at the end of 2023.

是的，謝謝，傑夫。因此，總體而言，從物質通膨的角度來看，我們看到一個穩定的環境，就像我在評論中所說的那樣，第四季度會出現輕微的通貨緊縮，我們預計第一季也會出現輕微的通貨緊縮，但到 2025 年總體環境是穩定的。從原物料價格關係來看。我們認為這個週期已基本結束。因此，我們有點陷入了困境，即與去年同期相比，我們仍然看到一些原材料的負面定價。在我們的 2025 年模型中。考慮到我們在 2023 年底看到的嚴重通貨緊縮與物價上漲之間的時間差。

So if you think about it, we typically said there was one to two quarter lag between when we see deflation, we passed the pricing and so we, we're modeling some of that into Q1 and a little bit into Q2 of 2025. And after that, we see it stable stabilizing going forward. We'll continue to manage kind of price raw material relationship in the way we've done in the past we over the cycle, we expect them to be neutral and that kind of benefiting from our cost out activities.

如果你仔細想想，我們通常會說，在我們看到通貨緊縮和定價之間會存在一到兩個季度的滯後，因此，我們將其中的一些模型應用到 2025 年第一季和第二季。在此之後，我們看到它將逐漸穩定下來。我們將繼續以過去的方式管理價格原材料關係，在整個週期內，我們預計它們將保持中性，並從我們的成本削減活動中受益。

Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

馬特羅伯茲、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Good morning everybody. Thank you for the time. Yeah, I wanted to ask on apparel and general retail. So general retail accelerated in four other from 20% to 40%. Maybe you could talk about what drove that acceleration and how we should think about that progression in 2025 and similarly apparel decelerated. It seems you have easy comps on apparel in first half. So how should we think about apparel? Growth in first half versus the second half. Basically, I'm just, trying to get confident on the acceleration in each of those given kind of each end market and an intelligent label, intelligent labels has some unique timing impacts. Thanks.

大家早安。感謝您抽出時間。是的，我想問服裝和一般零售的問題。因此，其他四個地區的一般零售業成長速度從 20％ 加速到 40％。也許您可以談談是什麼推動了這種加速，以及我們應該如何看待 2025 年的這種進步以及服裝行業的類似減速。看來您在上半年的服飾事業上取得了輕鬆的成績。那我們該如何看待服裝呢？上半年相對於下半年有所成長。基本上，我只是試圖對每個終端市場和智慧標籤的加速發展充滿信心，智慧標籤具有一些獨特的時間影響。謝謝。

Thanks, Matt. Specifically, in general retail, we continue to see an acceleration for IL volume as we went through the year. And that's largely on a very large retailer continuing to drive compliance in the various categories that they've laid out for IL adoption.

謝謝，馬特。具體來說，在一般零售業中，我們看到，隨著時間的推移，IL 交易量持續加速成長。這在很大程度上取決於大型零售商是否繼續推動他們為 IL 採用而製定的各個類別的合規性。

And while they may announce them in time, it takes a while for those compliance to come through the supplier base. And we're actively involved in supporting that supplier base as they drive through that compliance piece.

儘管他們可能會及時宣布這些規定，但這些合規性要求還需要一段時間才能在供應商群體中實施。我們積極參與支持供應商群體完成合規工作。

On apparel, overall, we certainly saw significant volume in '24 at largely because of the comparison the normalization of volume in '24 relative to '23, when we saw the de-stocking. And particularly, in IL apparel, as we got towards the end of the year, we still had very strong IR growth in apparel. Not quite as strong as we'd anticipated in the fourth quarter because there's one or two key program pieces that just moved slightly from a timing perspective into this year.

就服裝而言，總體而言，我們確實看到24年的銷量顯著增加，這主要是因為與23年相比，24年的銷量正常化，而23年則出現了去庫存的情況。特別是在 IL 服裝方面，接近年底，我們的服裝 IR 成長仍然非常強勁。不如我們預期的第四季那麼強勁，因為從時間角度來看，今年有一兩個關鍵項目略有變化。

When I look into general retail for 2025, we're going to continue to see strong growth as we move forward as that compliance both continues to accelerate, and new other general merchandise retailers are planned through the cycle for some degree of early adoption as well.

當我展望2025年的一般零售業時，我們將繼續看到強勁的成長，因為合規性將繼續加速，而其他新的一般商品零售商也計劃在整個週期內進行一定程度的早期採用。

And then we look at apparel overall, we're expecting low double-digit growth in apparel in 2025 for IL. That's based on the apparel core business, the market itself being somewhat around GDP to GDP minus typically as we see because of the cannibalization of the core business from IL.

然後我們看一下整體服裝，我們預計 2025 年伊利諾伊州服裝銷量將實現低兩位數增長。這是基於服裝核心業務的，市場本身的成長率一般在 GDP 到 GDP 減之間，這是由於核心業務受到 IL 的蠶食所致。

But in IL, specifically, that low double-digit performance is predicated on existing customers that we're rolling out during last year and continuing into this year. And then we have on the upside in that 10% to 15% range I talked about for IL. We also have some new customers planned for adoptions we go sequentially through the year, and those can always be adjusted for timing. We're real confidence in our apparel performance overall as we look at IL.

但具體來說，在伊利諾州，這種低兩位數的表現是基於我們去年推出並延續到今年的現有客戶。然後我們就有了我之前談到的 IL 的 10% 到 15% 的上升空間。我們也計劃在全年內陸續為一些新客戶採用此技術，並且這些技術的時間可以隨時調整。從 IL 來看，我們對我們的服裝整體表現非常有信心。

I will make the point that when you look at our IL volumes overall for 2025 in this 10% to 15% range, this 10% range for us represents known programs rolling now, delivering volume right now, we have a real strong line of sight to that. The additional 5% growth as we go through that is unknown programs that are likely to adopt. But again, there may be some timing variances as we go through that. And this gives us the confidence that in the long term, we're going to continue to see that 15% plus growth rate over the long term.

我要指出的是，當您查看我們 2025 年的 IL 總量是否處於 10% 到 15% 的範圍內時，對於我們來說，這 10% 的範圍代表了現在正在推出的已知項目，目前正在交付的數量，我們對此有著真正強烈的預期。我們所經歷的額外 5% 的增長是可能採用的未知計劃。但同樣，在我們經歷這過程時，可能存在一些時間差異。這使我們有信心，從長遠來看，我們將繼續看到 15% 以上的長期成長率。

Yeah. And I can just jump in. just to make sure -- because I think your question was a little bit of our first half, second half post on apparel IL. So we do expect growth in Apparel IL to accelerate throughout the year as some of these programs that Deon mentioned kind of rolling out.

是的。我可以直接插話，只是為了確認一下——因為我認為你的問題與我們關於服裝 IL 的上半部分、下半部分的帖子有些相似。因此，隨著 Deon 提到的一些項目的推出，我們確實預計 Apparel IL 的成長將在全年加速。

John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO資本市場部的約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty) 說。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So maybe just a follow-up on that logistics customer with the announcement that was out today from them. Can you help us to think about the cadence of how those volume declines may roll through as we look through 2025? Is it lumpy? Or is it relatively smooth? Have you seen any of that impact already, whether it was in the fourth quarter or in early '25?

是的，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，也許只是對該物流客戶今天發布的公告進行跟進。您能否幫助我們思考一下，展望 2025 年，這些交易量的下降節奏將如何？有塊狀嗎？還是說比較順利？您是否已經看到了其中的影響，無論是在第四季度還是在 25 年初？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks John. From our perspective, it's very difficult to call how that volume performance and that particular customers transition will happen during the year. They've given some guidance on that, I think more generally and thematically our strength and the way we're thinking about that partnership with them, we know what volumes we have aligned with them for 2024. We've built that into our guidance and we're going to and their commitment to us is on that, that volume leverage which sorry on that volume level, which continues to provide us significant majority share in that account as we move forward.

謝謝約翰。從我們的角度來看，很難預測今年的銷售表現和特定客戶的轉變將如何發生。他們對此給出了一些指導，我認為更普遍、更主題化地看，我們的優勢以及我們對與他們的合作關係的看法，我們知道 2024 年我們與他們達成的交易量是多少。我們已將其納入我們的指導方針，我們將會這樣做，他們對我們的承諾也基於此，即交易量槓桿，抱歉，基於該交易量水平，隨著我們前進，它將繼續為我們提供該帳戶中絕大多數的份額。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to ask on solutions margins. I know sequentially kind of messy but you know, sales are up a pretty decent amount, but the EBITDA increase is relatively small. So I don't know if how much you attribute that to mixed cost or you know, increase investments that you're doing. So one, what happened in the quarter and then two as you look over the next year with the rollouts that we're talking about, what do you think the incremental margins look like in solutions?

是的，謝謝。早安.我只是想問一下解決方案的餘地。我知道連續性有點混亂，但你知道，銷售額成長了相當可觀的金額，但 EBITDA 增幅相對較小。所以我不知道您是否將其歸因於混合成本或您正在進行的投資增加。那麼，第一，本季發生了什麼事？

Yeah, thanks Josh. Yeah. So I think you called the biggest issue which was really mixed in the quarter. You know, we, as you heard the high value solutions within -- so high value solution within solutions was down in the digits. And so that was a big impact. The other thing there were, there was also a small relatively smaller kind of double, double cost on our Mexico plant that we've, that we've started in the quarter.

是的，謝謝喬希。是的。所以我認為你所說的最大的問題是本季的複雜情況。您知道，正如您所聽到的，解決方案中的高價值解決方案的數量已經下降。所以這影響很大。另一件事是，我們本季啟動的墨西哥工廠的成本也出現了相對較小的翻倍。

And so that was another another impact I would call out that margin year over year or for the full year have been up from '23 to '24. And to your last point of your question, we do expect margins to continue to expand next year as we accelerate kind of a high value segment growth. So, the for example, the Ves program that Dan mentioned earlier, IL etcetera, all these elements should drive our growth, our our margin higher in 2024, in 2025. Sorry.

因此，我想說的是，這是另一個影響，即利潤率同比或全年從 23 年到 24 年一直在上升。關於您問題的最後一點，隨著我們加速高價值細分市場的成長，我們確實預計明年利潤率將繼續擴大。因此，例如丹之前提到的 Ves 計劃、IL 等等，所有這些因素都應該會推動我們的成長，使我們的利潤率在 2024 年和 2025 年更高。對不起。

And maybe just one quick thing to add Josh. You know, as Danny mentioned, the mix that we expect next year should potentially result in a higher flow through than average. And I think you kind of know in this business, we tend to tend to need about two points of growth on the top line to cover general inflation in most years. And then we tend to see about a 30% flow through after that on volume.

也許還有一件事要快速補充一下，喬許 (Josh)。您知道，正如丹尼所提到的，我們預計明年的組合可能會導致流量高於平均水平。我想您也知道，在這個行業中，大多數年份我們往往需要大約兩個點的營收成長才能涵蓋一般通貨膨脹。然後我們往往會看到大約 30% 的流量。

So depending on where the growth comes from and obviously, with the expectations for better growth in the high value categories, we could see a little bit above average in 2025.

因此，取決於成長來自何處，顯然，由於預期高價值類別將有更好的成長，我們可能會看到 2025 年的成長略高於平均值。

Mike Roxland, Tourist Securities.

麥克‧洛克斯蘭 (Mike Roxland)，旅遊證券公司。

Thank you. Deon, Gary, John, (inaudible) my questions, I'm happy to hear that Greg is doing better.

謝謝。迪翁、加里、約翰，（聽不清楚）我的問題，我很高興聽到格雷格的情況好轉了。

Yeah, you mentioned I just wanted to follow up again on the logistics customer. You mentioned that you're, the logistics customers committed to those volumes for you this year. And that, that those volumes obviously include the adjustment that they made even more of their customers. But the volumes last year, from that, from logistics customer were also choppy. I mean, I'm sure they went into the year, maybe promised you a certain level.

是的，您提到我只是想再次跟進物流客戶。您提到，物流客戶今年已承諾為您提供這些數量的貨物。而且，這些數量顯然包括了他們對更多客戶所做的調整。但去年來自物流客戶的出貨量也不穩定。我的意思是，我確信他們已經進入了這一年，也許已經向你承諾了一定的水平。

The their business is a little choppy and they didn't execute at the level that you expected it to. So what gives you the confidence that they're going to be able to keep the volumes, they promised you this year. And then just secondly, quickly you met a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned a delay in some customer deployments. Now getting pushed from '24 to '25 give a better sense now of when they should be deployed in '25 [communicating] wise the vertical they will (inaudible)

他們的業務有點不穩定，而且他們的執行程度沒有達到你期望的水平。那麼，什麼讓您有信心他們能夠保持今年向您承諾的產量呢？其次，幾個季度前您曾提到一些客戶部署的延遲。現在從 24 年推遲到 25 年，可以更好地了解他們應該在 25 年的什麼時候部署，[溝通] 他們將（聽不清楚）

thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. On the confidence on the logistics volume, I think we have high confidence based on what we know now. We've learned a lot, as I said, Mike, through this kind of first adoption, and that learning in that kind of first and second year really matters when you come to sort of being able to plan out what is going to happen sequentially from a volume perspective, service priority and also innovation that we bring to bear in the count as we continue to help them progress on their IL journey as well. I think overall, we did see some choppiness in the volume as I talked about during 2024 and some of the products didn't have RFID packages enabled packages they went through. That's all been resolved now.

是的。謝謝，麥克。關於物流量的信心，我認為根據我們目前所了解的情況，我們很有信心。正如我所說，麥克，透過這種首次採用，我們學到了很多東西，而在第一年和第二年中的這種學習確實很重要，當你能夠從數量角度、服務優先級以及我們在計數中帶來的創新來規劃接下來將要發生的事情時，我們也會繼續幫助他們在 IL 之旅上取得進展。我認為總體而言，正如我在 2024 年談到的那樣，我們確實看到了交易量的一些波動，而且其中一些產品的包裹沒有啟用 RFID 功能。現在一切都已解決。

And I contend that the their use of the technology has significantly continued to improve, and they're talking about, as you know, in their journey, moving it not just from where it is in the last mile fulfillment center to the van, to the delivery point and ultimately actually back to the source as well. And we're involved in all those segments of their development and providing both innovation support and actually expertise as well.

我認為他們對技術的使用已經顯著地持續改進，正如你所知，他們談論的是在他們的旅程中，不僅將貨物從最後一英里的履行中心運送到貨車、交貨點，最終也返回到源頭。我們參與了他們發展的所有環節，並提供創新支援和專業知識。

Referring to your second question around delays overall. It's not atypical, Mike, that we see. And particularly in some programs, they may ship one or two quarters depending on how the timing of those goes. We've seen that historically right since the start of this journey. There's nothing material or significant in any of those changes.

關於您關於整體延誤的第二個問題。麥克，我們看到的這種情況並不罕見。特別是在某些項目中，他們可能會根據時間安排，在一到兩個季度內發貨。自從這段旅程開始以來，我們就已經從歷史上見證了這一點。這些變化都沒有什麼實質或重大意義。

And it's part of the reasons why when I look forward into this year to 2025, and I talked about that an incremental 5% growth, we have planned those rollouts based on what we know and discussions we've had and the successful pilots and trials per month, two months of the quarter, depending, and that's why we have this range of sort of 10% to 15%.

這也是為什麼當我展望今年到 2025 年時，我談到了 5% 的增量增長，我們根據所了解的情況、進行的討論以及每月、每季度兩個月的成功試點和試驗來規劃這些推出，這就是為什麼我們的增長率在 10% 到 15% 之間。

I will also just take a step back, Mike, if you don't mind, and just reflect just the history of what we've talked about for the business, and I really want to reemphasize the strength of the franchise that we have. We don't have just one lever that I know a lot of attention is on IL. We have multiple high-value categories that we talked about. We have Vestcom, we have Embelex, we have our materials group, high-value segments.

麥克，如果你不介意的話，我也會退一步，只是反映一下我們所談論的業務的歷史，我真的想再次強調我們擁有的特許經營權的實力。我們不僅有一種槓桿，我知道很多人的注意力都集中在 IL 上。我們討論過多個高價值類別。我們有 Vestcom，有 Embelex，我們有材料集團和高價值細分市場。

These contribute currently more than we currently have for IL. IL has the greatest growth profile, but each one of these is going to grow significantly in 2025 on existing and new customers that we're going to roll out. And I talk briefly around what we saw for our Embelex business and for our Vestcom business as well.

這些貢獻目前比我們目前對 IL 的貢獻還要多。IL 的成長前景最為樂觀，但到 2025 年，這些業務在現有客戶和我們將要推出的新客戶群中都將顯著成長。我會簡單談談我們的 Embelex 業務和 Vestcom 業務的情況。

But that's not just the only leave on growth. We also have our base business really anchored in consumer staples, providing GDP growth around the world -- we have a really strong balance sheet that we're able to use to leverage in a disciplined way to drive earnings. We have a talented team and our market positions are really strong as well. And if you think about over the past 10 years-plus years, how we've been able to deliver them matter the circumstances, we have the levers in our franchise to be able to pull either singularly or collectively, that will continue to allow us to deliver double-digit earnings growth as we move forward.

但這並不是唯一阻礙成長的舉措。我們的基礎業務也真正紮根於消費必需品，為全球 GDP 成長提供動力——我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，我們能夠以有紀律的方式利用它來推動獲利。我們擁有一支才華洋溢的團隊，我們的市場地位也非常強大。如果您想想過去 10 多年，無論情況如何，我們都能實現這些目標，我們的特許經營權可以單獨或集體發揮作用，這將使我們在未來繼續實現兩位數的盈利增長。

Michael Leithesd, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的麥可‧萊斯德 (Michael Leithesd)。

Great, thanks, good morning. Can you maybe just speak more to the initial capital allocation plans this year? I think in the slide, you talked about ample capacity for M&A and buyback. So I guess just how does the M&A pipeline currently look and then the debt coming due this year? Do you intend to refinance all of that or pay some of that off with cash generation?

太好了，謝謝，早安。能否詳細談談今年的初始資本配置計畫？我認為您在幻燈片中談到了充足的併購和回購能力。那我猜目前的併購管道情況如何，以及今年到期的債務狀況如何？您是否打算為所有這些債務進行再融資或利用現金償還部分債務？

Thanks Michael. Yes. So overall, our capital allocation strategy really hasn't changed and remained the same as what we've did over the last few years. You know, we've always said that we would like to have a strong balance sheet that we can pursue strategic acquisitions that can help accelerate our strategies or growth margins, et cetera as well as take, take advantage of market dislocations.

謝謝邁克爾。是的。因此總體而言，我們的資本配置策略實際上並沒有改變，與過去幾年的策略保持一致。你知道，我們一直說，我們希望擁有強大的資產負債表，以便我們能夠進行策略性收購，從而幫助加速我們的策略或成長利潤率等等，並利用市場錯位。

And so for 2025 we will continue with the same playbook, we can continue to pursue M&A that is strategic to us that we can acquire attractive valuation as well as take advantage of market dislocations in the market to share buyback like we've done in the fourth quarter. So I don't see anything materially changing. We're in a great spot to be able to drive earnings growth as well. As well as the EVA and we'll continue to execute on that.

因此，對於 2025 年，我們將繼續採用相同的策略，我們可以繼續進行對我們具有戰略意義的併購，以便獲得有吸引力的估值，並利用市場錯位進行股票回購，就像我們在第四季度所做的那樣。因此我沒有看到任何實質的改變。我們處於非常有利的位置，能夠推動獲利成長。以及EVA，我們將繼續執行。

Michael, let me just double click on something Danny said at the end there. I just want to re-emphasize how as an organization, both the leadership level through the organization by program, by business unit, we are truly EVA focused, really makes sure that we optimize this balance of growth, margin and capital can see. And we have the balance sheet to be able to do that to drive any one of those levers as we see as well as a really strong foundation for the way that we can continue to compound earnings as we move forward.

邁克爾，讓我雙擊丹尼最後說的話。我只是想再次強調，作為一個組織，無論是從領導層到組織、從專案到業務部門，我們都真正專注於 EVA，並真正確保我們優化成長、利潤和資本之間的平衡。而我們擁有資產負債表，能夠做到這一點，以推動我們所看到的任何一個槓桿，同時為我們在未來繼續增加收益奠定了堅實的基礎。

And one thing just to add on the on the debt side, we yes, we do have EUR500 million coming due in March. So that'll be repaid and we actually issued a EUR500 million of senior notes in early November in the same regard at 3.75% to full repayment. So don't anticipate needing to, to raise in the near term.

關於債務方面，還有一點需要補充，是的，我們確實有5億歐元的債務將於3月到期。所以這筆錢將會被償還，我們實際上在 11 月初以同樣的利率發行了 5 億歐元的優先票據，利率為 3.75%，用於全額償還。因此，不要預期短期內需要升息。

Yeah. Thanks, John. One just to link one other thing to this is that you can see on our supplemental materials as well that we're calling out interest -- net interest expense. We expect that to be slightly up next year because of that refinancing that we did at a higher rate than the bond that came due -- that is coming due in March.

是的。謝謝，約翰。與此相關的另一件事是，您也可以在我們的補充資料中看到，我們正在討論利息—淨利息支出。我們預計明年這一數字將略有上升，因為我們進行的再融資利率高於到期債券的利率——該債券將於 3 月到期。

Thank you. Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

謝謝。花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

Good morning. It's actually Bryan Burgmeier sitting in for Anthony. Thank you for taking the question. Just there's a lot of discussion on potential tariffs in the United States right now. Just wondering if you can remind us, does Avery ship a meaningful amount of products from Canada and Mexico in or out of the United States?

早安.實際上是布萊恩伯格邁爾 (Bryan Burgmeier) 代替安東尼。感謝您回答這個問題。目前美國正在討論潛在的關稅。只是想知道您是否可以提醒我們，Avery 是否從加拿大和墨西哥向美國境內或境外運送大量產品？

I know there's an RFID facility that Avery built in Mexico. I'm not sure if those come into the United States or if they could face tariffs. Just general thoughts on how tariffs could impact Avery as we watch these play out.

我知道 Avery 在墨西哥建造了一個 RFID 設施。我不確定這些產品是否會進入美國或是否會面臨關稅。只是就關稅如何影響艾弗里，我們觀察這些事情的發展，提出一些一般性的想法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Bryan. Let me start at the high level. Our direct exposure to tariffs is very limited. One of the strengths of our business is that we're really good at scenario planning. We've proven that over time. And no matter where there are policy changes, geopolitical risk, we tend to have scenarios planned out for those.

謝謝，布萊恩。讓我從高層次開始講。我們直接受到的關稅影響非常有限。我們業務的優勢之一是我們非常擅長情境規劃。我們已經證明了這一點。無論政策改變或地緣政治風險如何，我們都會制定相應的因應方案。

I'd also say as a point of general reference, we largely procure and produce and sell in the same region. And when we procure internationally, we have multiple suppliers that we're able to leverage. I essentially say our global network is also allows us to have the capability to flex production wherever we need to that's a really strong key competitive advantage for us.

我還想說，作為一般參考，我們主要在同一地區採購、生產和銷售。當我們進行國際採購時，我們有多個可以利用的供應商。我本質上是說，我們的全球網路也使我們能夠在任何需要的地方靈活生產，這對我們而言是一個非常強大的關鍵競爭優勢。

Let me talk a bit specifically about -- I know there's been two discussions on two sort of areas. So one, around China. China, for us, about half of our China business is actually in our Materials group, which the vast majority of which is basically sold is labeled in the Chinese market for label consumption in the Chinese market.

讓我具體談談——我知道在兩個領域已經進行了兩次討論。第一，圍繞中國。中國，對我們來說，我們大約一半的中國業務實際上是在我們的材料集團，其中絕大多數基本上是在中國市場上銷售的標籤，供中國市場上的標籤消費。

The other half is in our apparel business, which we add tags and labels to garments that are largely exported to the United States and Europe. And we have seen and supported our brands over the last 10, 15 years and helping them manage migration if they see fit, to want to move production from one country like China to another like Vietnam or to Honduras, we are able -- we enable that to do that given the strength of our network around the world.

另一半是我們的服裝業務，我們為主要出口到美國和歐洲的服裝添加標籤和標記。在過去的 10 到 15 年裡，我們一直關注並支持我們的品牌，如果他們認為合適，我們會幫助他們管理遷移，將生產從一個國家（比如中國）轉移到另一個國家（比如越南或洪都拉斯），我們能夠——憑藉我們遍布全球的網絡實力，我們可以做到這一點。

If there may be some modest indirect exposure in this area to tariffs in the event that higher costs on apparel effectively translate to somewhat the lower -- that may be a possibility. In Mexico, specifically, we do have some more direct exposure there. We just recently built, opened and established and are running our New Mexico Intelligent Labels facility. But as part of our scenario planning that we have enough network capacity if we need to choose to move it around, including in the United States, should we need to do that as well overall, Bryan.

如果服裝成本的提高實際上轉化為關稅的降低，那麼該領域可能會受到關稅的一些間接影響——這可能是一種可能性。具體來說，在墨西哥，我們確實有更多的直接曝光。我們最近剛建造、開業、建立並營運我們的新墨西哥智慧標籤工廠。但是作為我們情境規劃的一部分，如果我們需要選擇移動它，包括在美國，我們有足夠的網路容量，我們是否也需要總體上這樣做，布萊恩。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Yeah, hi. I wanted to go to Slide 7, and ask kind of a two part question Vestcom. Before I turn back into Q. So you say that in total high value categories this year will be 2 points to 3.5 points of volume. Il assuming your forecasts are accurate, that's 1 points to 1.5 points as I take it, which would leave 1 points to 2 points residual.

是的，你好。我想轉到幻燈片 7，並向 Vestcom 提出一個分為兩部分的問題。在我回到問題之前，您說今年的總高價值類別的數量將是 2 點到 3.5 點。假設您的預測準確，那麼我認為差距是 1 到 1.5 分，剩餘差距是 1 到 2 分。

If I then look at materials, materials are saying you're looking for mid single digit growth out of your high value categories of materials, which is about over one-third of the materials segment and that in turn is whatever three quarters of the company. So that's another point plus that doesn't leave a whole lot of growth. I've done the math right? For growth in Embelex or Vestcom even though it sounds like you're positive on both. And certainly Vestcom, you talked about a new pharmacy customer that you're bringing in.

如果我看一下材料，材料表明您正在尋找高價值材料類別中的中等個位數增長，這約佔材料部門的三分之一以上，而這又占公司的四分之三。所以這是另一個優點，不會帶來很大的成長。我算得對嗎？對於 Embelex 或 Vestcom 的成長，儘管聽起來你對這兩家公司都持樂觀態度。當然還有 Vestcom，您談到了您引入的新藥房客戶。

So help me square that circle in terms of if there is growth in Embelex and Vestcom, while we're not necessarily seeing maybe more growth in high value. relatedly, can you talk about what the growth in Vestcom should be? You gave some call up later. What growth are you looking for Vestcom this year? And what's the contribution to earnings there?

因此，請幫我弄清楚 Embelex 和 Vestcom 是否有成長，而我們不一定會看到高價值產品有更多成長。與此相關，您能談談 Vestcom 的成長應該是多少嗎？您稍後再打一些電話。您期望 Vestcom 今年能夠實現哪些成長？那裡的收入貢獻是多少？

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

All right. Let me see if I can unpack that, George. I capture those questions. So let me just start with Embelex overall. We expect Embelex to grow double digits this year. high single digits to low double digits, depending on kind of the performance overall. And that's really anchored in a couple of things.

好的。讓我看看我能否解開它，喬治。我記住了這些問題。那麼讓我先從 Embelex 的整體情況開始說起。我們預計 Embelex 今年將實現兩位數的成長。從高個位數到低兩位數，取決於整體表現的類型。這實際上取決於幾件事。

The actual industry for personalized engagement and fan engagement has continued to be very strong throughout the years as well. And we've seen that industry -- our own business growing 15% plus over the last 6 years. particularly in this year, we're going to continue to see further rollouts of new customers.

多年來，個人化參與和粉絲參與的實際行業也一直保持強勁勢頭。我們已經看到這個行業——我們自己的業務在過去 6 年裡增長了 15% 以上。特別是今年，我們將繼續看到更多新客戶的推出。

And this is both at the product level. So imagine in performance athletic, the badges, the branding, the that go on to some of our prior performance to lead customers, particularly as one performance that led cut to recover as they move through this year.

這都是在產品層面。因此，想像一下在運動表現中，徽章、品牌等等，這些都會延續到我們之前的一些表現中，以引領客戶，特別是一種引領削減的表現，在今年逐漸恢復。

On the Team Sports side, where we continue to win new team sports for decoration, both names and numbers, whether it's in Europe or North America and some of the professional sports league. And then also actually in stadium as we're providing the full customization facilities in many of the professional leagues.

在團隊運動方面，我們不斷贏得新的團隊運動裝飾，包括名字和號碼，無論是在歐洲還是北美以及一些職業運動聯盟。實際上，我們也在體育場為許多職業聯賽提供完整的客製化設施。

Now a great example that you into the Intuit Stadium and saw exactly how our customized personalized in Stadium, which we drive (inaudible), which we drive not only the hardware to software, but all the technology and the actual physical apparel itself.

現在一個很好的例子是，您可以進入 Intuit 體育場，看到我們在體育場中如何進行客製化個人化，我們推動（聽不清楚），我們不僅推動硬體到軟體，還推動所有技術和實際的實體服裝本身。

So we anticipate Embelex will continue to grow. There's also the additional piece of the preparation of the start of the World Cup 26, which always adds another boost typically for a very large sporting event.

因此我們預計 Embelex 將繼續成長。此外，還有 26 屆世界盃開賽的額外準備工作，這對於一項大型體育賽事來說，總是會增添另一抹亮色。

Turning to Vestcom. Yes, certainly, our new customer that we want to continue and roll out during the first half will add substantially to what we believe Vestcom is going to sort of grow, again, high single to low double-digit growth for this year. It's not the only customer they've won. They're going to continue to make progress with some new customers and particularly on the Media Solutions side as we leverage this increasing scale of that network where we touch 60,000-plus stores to drive media sales for both CPGs and retailers themselves.

轉向 Vestcom。是的，當然，我們希望在上半年繼續推出的新客戶將大大增加我們的成長，我們相信 Vestcom 今年將再次實現高個位數到低兩位數的成長。這並不是他們贏得的唯一客戶。他們將繼續在一些新客戶方面取得進展，特別是在媒體解決方案方面，因為我們利用該網路不斷擴大的規模，覆蓋超過 60,000 家商店，以推動快速消費品和零售商本身的媒體銷售。

And so when you look at our range overall, Geroge, the upper end of our range, could it be stronger based on everything going away. Yes. But I'd just re-inforce at the upper end of our range, we're looking at 12% earnings growth overall. I think, John, did I capture all the questions there? I think I did.

因此，當您查看我們的整體範圍時，Geroge，即我們範圍的上限，是否會在所有因素消失的情況下變得更強。是的。但我只是想重申我們的預期範圍的上限，我們預計整體獲利成長率為 12%。約翰，我想我已經將所有問題都回答清楚了嗎？我認為我已經這麼做了。

Thank you, Mr. Ebel. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to you for closing remarks.

謝謝你，埃貝爾先生。目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給你們，請你們作結束語。

Thanks Jeanine.

謝謝 Jeanine。

We are confident we will continue to make strong progress against our long -term goals in 2025. With the overarching objective to deliver GDP plus growth. And top quartile returns a recipe for strong EVA growth, making superior value creation possible. Thank you for joining today. This now concludes our call.

我們有信心，到2025年，我們將繼續在實現長期目標方面取得長足進步。總體目標是實現 GDP 成長。而最高四分位數的回報是實現強勁的 EVA 成長的秘訣，從而可以創造卓越的價值。感謝您今天的加入。我們的通話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for your presentation and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。