Avient Corp (AVNT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Avient Corporation's webcast to discuss the company's fourth quarter and full year 2024 results. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator for today.

女士們、先生們，早上好，歡迎收聽 Avient Corporation 的網路廣播，討論該公司 2024 年第四季和全年業績。我叫米歇爾，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

We will have a question-and-answer session following the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would like now to turn the call over to Joe (Giuseppe) Di Salvo, Vice President, treasurer and investor relations. Please go ahead.

在公司發表準備好的發言後，我們將舉行問答環節。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音以供重播。現在，我想將電話轉給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁喬（朱塞佩）迪薩爾沃 (Joe (Giuseppe) Di Salvo)。請繼續。

Thank you, and Good morning to everyone joining us on the call today.

謝謝大家，大家早安，今天參加電話會議的各位。

Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that statements made during this webcast may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，本次網路廣播中發表的陳述可能被視為《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

For-looking statements will give current expectations or forecasts of future events and are not guarantees of future performance.

展望陳述將提供對未來事件的當前預期或預測，但不能保證未來的表現。

They are based on management's expectation and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the for-looking statements.

它們基於管理層的預期，並涉及許多商業風險和不確定性，其中任何一個都可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

We encourage you to review our most recent SEC filings and any applicable amendments for complete discussion of these factors and other risk factors that may affect our future results.

我們鼓勵您查看我們最近的 SEC 文件和任何適用的修訂，以全面討論這些因素以及可能影響我們未來結果的其他風險因素。

During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation posted in the Investor Relations section of the Avian website where the company describes the non-GAAP measures and provides a reconciliation for historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

在今天的討論中，公司將同時使用 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱 Avian 網站投資者關係部分發布的演示文稿，其中公司描述了非 GAAP 指標並提供了歷史非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

A replay of this call will be available on our website. Information to access the replay is listed in today's press release, which is available at aviandotcom in the Investor Relations section.

本次通話的重播將在我們的網站上提供。今天的新聞稿中列出了訪問重播的信息，您可以在 aviandotcom 的“投資者關係”部分找到該新聞稿。

Joining me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Doctor Ashish Khandpur, and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Jamie Beggs.

今天與我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Ashish Khandpur 博士和資深副總裁兼財務長 Jamie Beggs。

I will now hand a call over to Ashish to begin.

現在我將把發言權交給 Ashish。

Thank you, Joe, and Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，喬，大家早安。

2024 was my first full year as CEO of Avient and an important year of change for our company.

2024 年是我擔任 Avient 執行長的第一年，也是我們公司變革的重要一年。

Over the course of the year, we developed and launched a new strategy to deliver and accelerate organic growth.

這一年，我們制定並推出了一項新策略，以實現和加速有機成長。

As part of our evolution as a company, we articulated a new purpose, which is to be an innovator of material solutions to help our customers succeed while enabling a sustainable world.

作為公司發展的一部分，我們明確了一個新的目標，那就是成為材料解決方案的創新者，幫助我們的客戶取得成功，同時實現世界的永續發展。

Our strategic approach is to intersect secular trends and high growth markets with our technologies to create product platforms of scale.

我們的策略方法是將長期趨勢和高成長市場與我們的技術結合，以創建規模化的產品平台。

We have conducted extensive portfolio prioritization and identified growth vectors to both catalyze growth in our core and to build businesses in high growth markets supported by secular trends.

我們進行了廣泛的投資組合優先排序，並確定了成長方向，以促進核心業務的成長並在長期趨勢支持的高成長市場中建立業務。

As we began deploying our new strategy, it was important that we also remain focused on delivering performance in the present.

當我們開始部署新策略時，重要的是我們還要繼續專注於當前的表現。

Our overarching objective is organic top line growth. With margin expansion on the bottom line.

我們的首要目標是實現有機營收成長。底線利潤率不斷擴大。

I'm very pleased to report that in 2024 we delivered both.

我很高興地報告，我們在 2024 年實現了這兩個目標。

On this slide, we present organic revenue growth by region which removes the impact of FX for the full year 2024.

在這張投影片中，我們展示了按地區劃分的有機收入成長情況，消除了 2024 年全年外匯的影響。

As you can see, we grew organically in every region of the world, including EMEA, where the macro environment was quite challenging.

正如你所看到的，我們在世界每個地區都實現了有機成長，包括宏觀環境頗具挑戰性的歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

We also realized significantly higher growth versus respective regional GDP for the U.S. and Canada, Asia and Latin America regions.

我們也實現了美國、加拿大、亞洲和拉丁美洲地區各自區域 GDP 的顯著高成長。

This was driven by an enhanced focus on customers, share gains, winning new product specifications, and restocking in certain markets.

這是由於更加關注客戶、增加份額、贏得新產品規格以及在某些市場補貨。

Some of our key highlights for full year 2024 are shown in this next slide.

下一張幻燈片展示了我們 2024 年全年的一些主要亮點。

Organic sales for the total company increased by 4%.

公司整體有機銷售額成長了 4%。

Both our business segments grew and both expanded adjusted EBITDA margins.

我們的兩個業務部門均實現成長，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率均有所擴大。

Organic sales growth was 3% for color, additives and inks, or CAI segment, and 6% for specialty engineered materials or SEM segment.

色彩、添加劑和油墨（或 CAI 部門）的有機銷售額成長率為 3%，特種工程材料（或 SEM 部門）的有機銷售額成長率為 6%。

Adjusted EBITDA margin expansions were 90 basis points and 110 basis points for CAI and SEM segments respectively.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大分別為 CAI 和 SEM 部門的 90 個基點和 110 個基點。

For the company are adjusted with the margins expanded 20 basis points to 16.2%. Operationally, we remain disciplined and leverage our top line growth to deliver 13% adjusted EPS growth for the year, which includes the impact of FX.

該公司的利潤率經過調整後擴大了20個基點，達到16.2%。在營運方面，我們保持紀律，並利用我們的營收成長實現全年 13% 的調整後每股收益成長，其中包括外匯的影響。

In December at our investor day in New York, we shared our new company purpose and strategy, which has already been under execution for some time.

12 月，在紐約的投資者日上，我們分享了新的公司目標和策略，這些目標和策略已經實施了一段時間。

We strengthen our leadership team with new appointments for the CTO, CIO, general counsel, and SVP of new business development and marketing excellence roles.

我們任命了首席技術長、資訊長、總法律顧問以及新業務開發和行銷卓越高級副總裁，加強了我們的領導團隊。

Since then, in early January this year, we have rolled out a new incentive compensation plan for the company to ensure there is a direct alignment between executing our strategy and how and where our employees are focused.

從那時起，今年 1 月初，我們為該公司推出了一項新的激勵薪酬計劃，以確保我們的策略執行與員工的關注方式和關注領域直接一致。

And culturally, like every year, we strive for continuous improvement.

從文化角度來說，和每年一樣，我們都努力不斷進步。

That starts with safety.

首先要從安全開始。

I'm proud to share that 2024 was a record year for safety for us.

我很自豪地告訴大家，2024 年是我們安全創紀錄的一年。

And our injury incident rate was the best in the company's history.

我們的傷害事故率是公司史上最低的。

That being said, our ultimate and ongoing goal remains zero injuries, so we will continue to be disciplined and focused on further improving our safety performance.

話雖如此，我們最終和持續的目標仍然是零傷害，因此我們將繼續嚴守紀律，專注於進一步提高我們的安全績效。

One last point I would like to highlight for the year is our 5% dividend increase. That increase marked the 14th consecutive year of annual dividend growth for Avient.

今年我想要強調的最後一點是我們的股利增加了 5%。此次成長標誌著 Avient 連續第 14 年實現年度股息成長。

At the investor day in December, we also shared our prioritized growth vectors. One of our identified growth vectors is composites for Defense and law enforcement to catalyse growth in our core business of advanced protective materials.

在12月的投資者日，我們也分享了我們的優先成長向量。我們確定的成長方向之一是國防和執法複合材料，以促進我們先進防護材料核心業務的成長。

The market need for lighter and better protection materials is driving strong innovation in our labs and manufacturing processes.

市場對更輕、更好的防護材料的需求正推動我們實驗室和製造流程的強勁創新。

Today, I will highlight a new innovation in our Dyneema portfolio that is used in military and law enforcement applications.

今天，我將重點介紹我們的 Dyneema 產品組合中的一項新創新，該創新用於軍事和執法應用。

As you may know, Dyneema is the world's strongest fiber, and we just announced a breakthrough launch of our third-generation technology of this product line under Dyneema HB330 and HB332.

大家可能知道，Dyneema 是世界上最強的纖維，我們剛剛宣布推出該產品系列的第三代技術 Dyneema HB330 和 HB332，這是一項突破性進展。

This innovation offers industry leading performance through unmatched ballistic protection that is able to stop high velocity threats with precision.

這項創新透過無與倫比的彈道防護提供了業界領先的性能，能夠精確阻止高速威脅。

It has outstanding thermal performance and retains its stiffness and properties in high temperature environments.

它具有出色的熱性能，並在高溫環境下保持其剛度和性能。

And its ultra-light strength delivers the lightest possible solution for hard ballistics applications without compromising protection.

而且其超輕強度為硬彈道應用提供了最輕的解決方案，同時又不影響防護。

For law enforcement, this innovation will enable a high-performance system that is up to 45% lighter than current solutions in use.

對於執法部門來說，這項創新將實現高性能係統，其重量比目前使用的解決方案輕 45%。

For military personnel, it will enable upwards of 20% weight savings when compared to current materials that have been incorporated into military hard armor contracts.

對於軍事人員來說，與目前軍用硬質裝甲合約中所採用的材料相比，它將節省 20% 以上的重量。

The lightweight strength of Dyneema enhances agility, comfort, and overall mission effectiveness for those who protect and serve.

Dyneema 的輕質強度提高了保護和服務人員的靈活性、舒適性和整體任務效率。

This proprietary and revolutionary innovation will be used by our customers for both personal armor and vehicle armor.

我們的客戶將把這項專有的革命性創新用於個人裝甲和車輛裝甲。

Before I turn the call over to Jamie, I would like to comment on a significant decision we have recently made in the first quarter of this year.

在將電話轉給傑米之前，我想對我們今年第一季最近做出的一項重要決定發表評論。

We decided to seize all work related to the implementation of S/4 Hana, a cloud-based ERP system which we had begun some time ago.

我們決定抓緊所有與實施 S/4 Hana（一個基於雲端的 ERP 系統）相關的工作，這項工作我們之前已經開始了。

The decision was based on the risk, complexity, time, and associated costs, all of which have substantially increased to complete the project.

該決定是基於風險、複雜性、時間和相關成本而做出的，為了完成項目，所有這些都大幅增加了。

Accordingly, the initial value proposition of the project no longer holds true.

因此，該項目的初始價值主張不再成立。

Further, we have determined that there are alternative solutions less than a global ERP system that are less costly, easier to implement, and can deliver substantially the same benefits which will ultimately deliver better returns for our shareholders.

此外，我們還確定，存在比全球 ERP 系統更低成本、更易於實施且能夠帶來基本相同效益的替代解決方案，最終將為我們的股東帶來更好的回報。

As a result of this decision, the company will recognize a non-cash impairment charge of approximately $71 million associated with capitalized implementation costs and a charge of approximately $15 million associated with contractual obligations for license fees in the first quarter of 2025.

由於這項決定，公司將在 2025 年第一季確認與資本化實施成本相關的約 7,100 萬美元的非現金減損費用，以及與許可費合約義務相關的約 1,500 萬美元的費用。

These charges will be considered special items and are not included in our adjusted 2025 projections.

這些費用將被視為特殊項目，不包括在我們調整後的 2025 年預測中。

I want to reassure our investors that we don't take such decisions lightly, but I fully believe it is the right one going forward for the company and our shareholders.

我想向我們的投資人保證，我們不會輕易做出這樣的決定，但我完全相信，這對公司和股東的未來發展是正確的決定。

With that, Jamie can provide more context on 2024, and outlook for the year ahead.

透過這種方式，傑米可以提供更多有關 2024 年的背景資訊以及對未來一年的展望。

Thank you, Ashish, and Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Ashish，大家早安。

The headline for the fourth quarter is that overall earnings results were in line with expectations. We delivered within our guidance range for both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS.

第四季的頭條新聞是整體獲利結果符合預期。我們的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 均達到了預期範圍。

The rapid strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies in the fourth quarter unfavourably affected our EBITDA the results by $2 million and EPS by $0.01.

第四季美元對其他主要貨幣的快速走強對我們的 EBITDA 業績造成不利影響，導致每股收益減少 0.01 美元。

As a reminder, approximately 60% of our revenue is generated outside the United States.

提醒一下，我們大約 60% 的收入來自美國以外。

From a total company perspective, the fourth quarter marks our 3rd consecutive quarter of organic sales growth, which grew 5% year-by-year.

從整個公司的角度來看，第四季是我們連續第三個季度實現有機銷售額成長，年增5%。

Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS were down slightly as the benefit from higher sales was more than offset by the year over year impact of variable compensation accruals, as we said would be the case during our last quarterly earnings call.

調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的 EPS 略有下降，因為銷售額成長帶來的好處被同比變動薪酬應計的影響所抵消，正如我們在上次季度收益電話會議上所說的那樣。

This negatively impacted fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS by $10 million and $0.08 respectively.

這對第四季度調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 分別產生了 1000 萬美元和 0.08 美元的負面影響。

Turning to segment performance, color additives and inks grew organic sales by 3%, driven by strong demand in drug delivery, consumer discretionary products, particularly in Europe and Latin America, and building and construction materials in the United States.

談到分部業績，受藥物輸送、非必需消費品（尤其是歐洲和拉丁美洲）以及美國建築和建築材料的強勁需求推動，色素添加劑和油墨銷售額有機增長了 3%。

Offsetting the growth in these in markets where sales into transportation, where both the US and Europe were down year-by-year.

抵銷了這些市場的成長，在美國和歐洲，運輸業的銷售額都在逐年下降。

While the segment did benefit from raw material deflation in the prior quarter, this is not the case in the fouth quarter where the segment's raw material basket was essentially flat to last year.

儘管該部門在上一季確實受益於原物料通貨緊縮，但第四季並非如此，該部門的原物料籃子基本上與去年持平。

Higher sales and favourable mix partially offset the impact of variable compensation reset which resulted in an EBITDA decline versus the prior year.

銷售額成長和有利的產品組合部分抵消了可變薪酬調整的影響，從而導致 EBITDA 較上年下降。

Our specialty engineer materials segment posted 8% sales growth and 13% EBITDA growth excluding FX.

我們的特種工程材料部門銷售額成長 8%，扣除外匯因素後 EBITDA 成長 13%。

The segment was supported by robust demand for engineering materials and remote monitoring devices for healthcare applications.

該部門受到醫療保健應用的工程材料和遠端監控設備的強勁需求的支持。

Composites for building and construction and wind energy applications, as well as moderate growth and defense and consumer applications.

用於建築、施工和風能應用的複合材料，以及中等成長和國防和消費應用。

The segment had overall raw material inflation, primarily related to certain flame retardant materials, but pricing and mix were favourable, resulting in a net price benefit of $3 million for the quarter.

該部門整體原物料價格上漲，主要與某些阻燃材料有關，但價格和產品組合有利，導致本季淨價格收益為 300 萬美元。

Higher sales and favourable mix more than offset the impact of variable compensation within the quarter, leading to adjusted EBITDA growth as well as margin expansion for the segment.

更高的銷售額和良好的產品組合抵消了本季可變薪酬的影響，從而導致該部門的調整後 EBITDA 成長以及利潤率擴大。

Moving to the full year results for 2024, we accomplished what we set out to do by growing the top line in excess of market, as well as the bottom line through customer intimacy, innovative offerings, and operational discipline.

展望 2024 年全年業績，我們完成了既定目標，即透過客戶親密度、創新產品和營運紀律實現了超過市場水平的營收成長以及利潤成長。

Starting with the segments, color additives and inks grew organic cells by 3% in 2024.

從細分市場來看，色素添加劑和油墨使有機電池在 2024 年增加了 3%。

Performance was driven by new applications for drug delivery and building and construction, as well as demand recovery and packaging and consumer in markets.

業績的推動因素包括藥物傳輸和建築施工領域的新應用，以及需求復甦和包裝及市場消費者。

Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 90 basis points driven by operating leverage from higher sales and favourable net price benefit.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 90 個基點，這得益於銷售額增加和有利的淨價格效益所帶來的經營槓桿。

SEM sales grew 6% over the prior year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange.

除去外匯影響，SEM 銷售額比上年增長了 6%。

The composites business, which represents approximately 55% of the segment, benefited from strong demand and defense applications, as well as growth in building and construction.

複合材料業務約佔該細分市場的 55%，受益於強勁的需求和國防應用以及建築業的成長。

Composite growth was tempered by destocking in the telecommunications and market.

電信和市場去庫存化抑制了綜合成長。

The segment also grew with engineering materials, especially in healthcare applications. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 110 basis points, primarily driven by operating leverage from higher sales and favourable mix from margin [accreta] platforms.

該部門也隨著工程材料而成長，特別是在醫療保健應用領域。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 110 個基點，主要得益於銷售額增加帶來的經營槓桿以及利潤率 [accreta] 平台的有利組合。

For total avian, adjusted EBITDA grew 6%, excluding foreign exchange to $526 million for the full year.

就整個禽類而言，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括外匯）增加了 6%，全年達到 5.26 億美元。

Earnings growth came from higher sales, favorable net price associated with raw material deflation, and lower costs from productivity measures.

獲利成長源自於銷售額的提高、原材料通貨緊縮帶來的有利淨價、以及生產力措施帶來的成本降低。

Taking this earnings growth and adding lower interest expense, we ended the year with adjusted EPS of $2.66 representing 15% growth over the prior year excluding FX.

考慮到這項獲利成長和較低的利息支出，我們今年的調整後每股收益為 2.66 美元，較上年同期（不包括外匯）成長 15%。

Turning now to our 2025 guidance, for the first quarter, we are projecting adjusted EPS to be $0.76 in line with the prior year first quarter and includes a $0.04 headwind associated with the strengthening U.S. dollar.

現在談到我們的 2025 年指引，對於第一季度，我們預計調整後的每股收益為 0.76 美元，與去年同期相比持平，並包括與美元走強相關的 0.04 美元的不利因素。

This translates to 6% adjusted EPS growth excluding FX.

這意味著不包括外匯因素在內的調整後每股收益成長 6%。

You may recall that last year's first quarter results benefited from the timing of outsized defence orders. As a reminder, the order patterns and sales for this market can be lumpy, resulting in quarterly swings.

您可能還記得，去年第一季的業績受益於超額國防訂單的時機。提醒一下，該市場的訂單模式和銷售情況可能不穩定，導致季度波動。

So, in considering this difficult comparison to the first quarter last year, this is an encouraging start to 2025.

因此，考慮到與去年第一季的艱難比較，這對 2025 年來說是一個令人鼓舞的開端。

From a full year perspective, we are providing a range to accommodate the current macro environment which includes several uncertainties.

從全年角度來看，我們提供的一系列措施來適應當前包含多種不確定因素的宏觀環境。

We noted a few of these considerations on this slide, such as the extent and timing of interest rate cuts.

我們在這張投影片上提到了其中一些考慮因素，例如降息的幅度和時間。

The underlying performance of world economies, consumer sentiment, and of course policy uncertainty and changes.

世界經濟的基本表現、消費者情緒，當然還有政策的不確定性與變化。

As it relates to potential tariff impacts, our exposure is largely mitigated, as the majority of our cells within a country is meant for local consumption.

由於它與潛在的關稅影響有關，我們的風險敞口大大減輕，因為我們在一個國家/地區的大多數電池都用於當地消費。

In addition, from a supply standpoint, roughly 5% of our global raw material purchases are at risk of being subjected to direct tariffs.

此外，從供應角度來看，我們全球原料採購的約5%面臨直接關稅的風險。

Of this 5% of our global spend, we have mitigating plans to source the majority from other countries.

對於我們全球支出的這 5%，我們制定了緩解計劃，將大部分支出從其他國家採購。

However, as we said in the past, the real question is the broader impact on global demand, which is uncertain and unquantifiable today.

然而，正如我們過去所說的那樣，真正的問題是其對全球需求的更廣泛影響，而這種影響目前是不確定且無法量化的。

Despite the uncertain macrodynamics like this, we will remain focused on what we can control.

儘管存在這樣的不確定的宏觀動態，我們仍將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

Accordingly, we are providing a range for four-year projections for adjusted EBITDA of $540 million to $570 million and adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $2.94.

因此，我們提供了四年調整後 EBITDA 預測範圍為 5.4 億美元至 5.7 億美元，調整後 EPS 預測範圍為 2.70 美元至 2.94 美元。

The midpoint of the adjusted EPS range represents 11% growth, excluding FX versus 2024.

調整後的每股盈餘範圍的中點代表著與 2024 年相比 11% 的成長（不包括外匯）。

I'll now hand the call back over to Ashish.

我現在將電話轉回給 Ashish。

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

And thank you to all listening to our call today, especially to the Avient team out there who made possible the performance and highlights we reported today.

感謝今天聆聽我們電話會議的所有人，特別是 Avient 團隊，他們使我們今天報告的表現和亮點成為可能。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，請打開電話線以回答問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

And our first question is going to come from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Your line is now open.

我們的第一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。您的線路現已開通。

Good morning. I think you and a nice end to the year.

早安.我想你會為這一年畫下一個圓滿的句點。

Ashish highlighted this Generation three Dyneema product.

Ashish 重點介紹了第三代 Dyneema 產品。

I'm curious as to, what sort of impact it would have. I was surprised to see. That this defense as a percent of overall sales was steady at 7%, '24 versus '23. Obviously, that could be 6.6% in '23 and 7.4% in '24.

我很好奇它會產生什麼樣的影響。我看見很驚奇。2024 年與 2023 年相比，這項防禦佔總銷售額的百分比穩定在 7%。顯然，23年這一比例可能為 6.6%，24年可能為 7.4%。

But can you talk about, this, the product that you highlighted and your expectations for for defence and in context also of the difficult one cu comp and what your expectations are for '25.

但是，您能否談談這個，您強調的產品以及您對國防的期望，以及在困難的背景下，您對 '25 的期望是什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Frank, for the question.

是的，謝謝弗蘭克提問。

First of all, I want to emphasize that the product is driven by the innovation is driven there by by the needs of the market, and that's important because, we want to have the innovation to be relevant and as you saw that.

首先，我想強調的是，產品是由創新驅動的，而創新是由市場需求驅動的，這一點很重要，因為我們希望創新具有相關性，正如您所看到的。

It's a significant upgrade to the performance of what the both the military and the law enforcement units see or are using today. So, with respect to, this is an important part for as our game as we go forward because it helps us maintain our margins, if not increase them, make a more profitable mix out of the [five], and then also, stay ahead of the competition.

這對軍隊和執法部門目前看到或使用的性能來說是一個重大的升級。因此，就這一點而言，這是我們未來發展的一個重要部分，因為它可以幫助我們保持利潤率，甚至提高利潤率，從 [五] 中形成更有利可圖的組合，從而保持競爭領先地位。

And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, this is patent protected proprietary innovation, so it gives us a lot of, confidence to. It creates a more for us with respect to how to win share against competition and then retain it.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，這是受專利保護的專有創新，因此它給了我們很大的信心。它為我們提供瞭如何在競爭中贏得份額並保留它的機會。

So, I think all those things are very important, of course, as I mentioned, the innovation is going to be used not just for personal protection but also vehicle armour.

所以，我認為所有這些都非常重要，當然，正如我所提到的，這項創新不僅用於個人防護，還用於車輛裝甲。

And then we are continuing to innovate this with rifle resistant helmet as well in the same spirit, so we are extending this innovation into other applications and those are under commercialization as well.

然後，我們以同樣的精神繼續對防步槍頭盔進行創新，因此我們將這項創新擴展到其他應用領域，這些應用也正在商業化中。

So, I won't give you a revenue number, but I can tell you that this innovation is very well accepted and is being commercialized with full strength in the marketplace. Both in the military segments as well as law enforcement and border security.

因此，我不會給你一個收入數字，但我可以告訴你，這項創新得到了很好的接受，並且正在市場上全力商業化。無論是在軍事領域，還是在執法和邊境安全領域。

With respect to defence, Q1 last year, as you may remember, was a pretty heavy defence quarter for us, we had 38% year-over-year. All these numbers I'm going to give you are constant currency or FX, so 38% growth year-over-year in Q1.

至於國防方面，您可能還記得，去年第一季對我們來說是一個相當繁忙的國防季度，比去年同期成長了 38%。我將提供給您的所有這些數字均按固定匯率或外匯計算，因此第一季同比增長 38%。

And just to give you a flavour, we 63% of our sales. Of the revenue that of the growth, 63% of the growth of defence last year came just out of Q1. So that's how lumpy Q1 was last year.

給大家簡單介紹一下，我們的銷售額佔 63%。在成長的收入中，去年國防收入的 63% 成長來自第一季。這就是去年第一季的波動情況。

What that means is typically we were $15 million to $17 million over sales than a typical expected quarter would be for defence.

這意味著我們的國防銷售額通常比預期季度高出 1500 萬至 1700 萬美元。

And so that's the kind of headwind we are hitting right now and as you know this is a pretty profitable product for us so both on the EPS side as well as on the sales side, this is a big hurdle to overcome and the teams are doing everything they can to do that and and that's reflected in our EPS guidance that that we talked about in the prepared remarks.

這就是我們現在面臨的逆風，正如你所知，這對我們來說是一個非常有利可圖的產品，因此無論在每股收益方面還是在銷售方面，這都是一個巨大的障礙，團隊正在竭盡全力做到這一點，這反映在我們在準備好的評論中談到的每股收益指引中。

So, maybe I'll just stop there and you know.

所以，也許我就停在那裡，你知道。

No, Ashish, I appreciate the I appreciate the color for sure.

不，Ashish，我很欣賞我當然欣賞這種顏色。

One of the things the market is now is now speculating is that we will have peace. At some point in in Europe, the Russia-Ukraine war.

目前市場猜測的事情之一是我們將擁有和平。在歐洲的某個時候，俄羅斯和烏克蘭爆發了戰爭。

Do you have any insights as to, how much that may have been driving some of some of this business and you know what may happen in the case that that we hopefully do get peace in in Russia, Ukraine?

您是否知道，這些因素在多大程度上推動了某些業務的發展？

I mean, I think short-term we don't expect much change in how this business has been performing you know there is a couple of things here.

我的意思是，我認為短期內我們預計這項業務的表現不會發生太大變化，你知道這裡有幾件事。

First of all, over time we have tried to balance our portfolio better this defence portfolio is now 60% military applications and 40% with law enforcement, border security, as well as National Guard kind of situation, and all those needs are increasing actually and we are winning, businesses in those areas as there is more focus on border protection, etc.

首先，隨著時間的推移，我們試圖更好地平衡我們的投資組合，現在國防投資組合中 60% 用於軍事應用，40% 用於執法、邊境安全以及國民警衛隊等情況，所有這些需求實際上都在增加，而且我們正在贏得勝利，這些領域的企業也更加關注邊境保護等。

So, it's a more balanced portfolio versus just being a defence or military application. That's point number one.

因此，與單純的國防或軍事應用相比，這是一個更平衡的投資組合。這是第一點。

Point number two, based on the political climate, we expect NATO countries will actually probably increase their spending on defence and or try to become more self-reliant versus relying on U.S. itself to provide the solution. And so, we expect that that will that should further help some of this business.

第二點，基於政治氣氛，我們預期北約國家實際上可能會增加國防開支或嘗試更加自力更生，而不是依靠美國自己提供解決方案。因此，我們預計這將進一步有助於部分業務。

And then point number three is that we continue to find new applications beyond defence and military for these kinds of technology, which is specifically in the area of marine and, ropes for tagging and building sustainable infrastructure, over in the ocean.

第三點是，我們將繼續尋找這些技術除了國防和軍事之外的新應用，特別是在海洋領域，以及用於標記和在海洋中建立永續基礎設施的繩索。

So, all those things are, the teams are working on and and are winning business there, so diversification of portfolio is also as important in this case where we can find application where the differentiation is appreciated.

所以，所有這些事情都是，團隊正在努力並在那裡贏得業務，所以在這種情況下，投資組合的多樣化也同樣重要，我們可以找到重視差異化的應用程式。

Sounds promising.

聽起來很有希望。

Thank you, Ashish.

謝謝你，Ashish。

And our next question will come from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的邁克哈里森。您的線路已開通。

Hi, Good morning. Let me share my congratulations on a solid finish of the year.

你好，早安。請容許我向您表示祝賀，並祝賀我們今年取得了圓滿的成績。

Was hoping Ashish, that we could, dig in a little bit more on your decision to seize implementation of the SAP S/4 Hana system.

我希望 Ashish，我們可以更深入地了解您決定實施 SAP S/4 Hana 系統的原因。

I guess just help us understand, kind of where you were in the implementation process was were you in kind of the second or third inning or were you a little bit later stage, and remind us also of the timing, I guess of when you were expecting that to be complete and how do you think the timing of alternatives is going to compare in terms of when this is going to be completed and we could start to see some benefits from the new ERP system.

我想，請幫助我們了解一下，您在實施過程中處於第二階段還是第三階段，還是處於稍後的階段，請提醒我們一下時間安排，我想您預計什麼時候完成，您認為在何時完成方面，其他替代方案的時間安排如何比較，我們可以開始從新的 ERP 系統中看到一些好處。

Thanks, Mike, for the question.

謝謝邁克提出這個問題。

First of all, our original thinking on this was the plan was to implement it across our U.S. and Canada sites and especially on the color side of business and, so there was a multitude of sites that were for phase one or cycle one if you want to say that, and then moved to other parts of the world over subsequent phases.

首先，我們最初的想法是，計劃在美國和加拿大的站點實施，特別是在彩色業務方面，因此，如果您願意的話，有很多站點屬於第一階段或第一周期，然後在後續階段轉移到世界其他地方。

And what we realized after about two years of work and as I said, a whole bunch of extended timeline and associated costs related with that and resource requirements they were continuing to creep up as we were going in the process and the project was much more complicated than the team had originally envisioned or thought about.

大約兩年的工作之後，我們意識到，正如我所說的，大量的延長的時間表和相關的成本以及資源需求隨著我們推進而不斷增加，專案比團隊最初設想或考慮的要復雜得多。

So, and then what we what we realized was that. In the end it was very high risk for us to go with in the test cycle we realized based on the outcome that was very high risk for us to go with the implementation across with that multitude of sites that we had originally planned and so we reduced price we thought about reducing the scope and and doing it over a fewer number of sites and then.

所以，我們意識到的是。最後，我們意識到，在測試週期中，我們面臨的風險非常高，根據結果，我們在最初計劃的那麼多站點上實施這項計劃，風險非常高，因此，我們降低了價格，考慮縮小範圍，在更少的站點上實施，然後。

After those things came up and the cost and and the and the data came out on what would it cost to implement there and the resource requirements, it didn't even make sense to go for us to go forward.

在這些事情出現之後，以及關於在那裡實施的成本和資源需求的數據出來之後，我們繼續前進甚至變得毫無意義。

So, the long and short of to your answer is that the cost and resource requirements were way ahead of what way higher than what we had originally envisioned and the complexity was very high as well.

所以，你的答案的長短是，成本和資源要求遠遠超出了我們最初的設想，而且複雜性也很高。

And simultaneously, I would like to point out that there are a lot of new applications that have evolved since we started the project because of all the different software and innovation happening in machine learning and artificial intelligence.

同時，我想指出的是，自從我們啟動這個專案以來，由於機器學習和人工智慧領域出現了各種不同的軟體和創新，因此已經出現了許多新的應用程式。

Those benefits that we have, we were thinking of realizing with this ERP we could realize by implementing some of those systems which are, lower in cost and easier to implement and and can triangulate the same amount, similar kind of data, not exactly the same, but similar kind of information and benefits substantially.

我們希望利用 ERP 來實現我們所擁有的這些好處，透過實施一些成本更低、更易於實施的系統，可以對相同數量、類似類型的數據（雖然不是完全相同，但是資訊和好處大體上類似）進行三角測量。

So, that we don't lose out on the benefits that we admire and especially on the price, the realization side, inventory management side and supply chain visibility side.

因此，我們不會失去我們所欣賞的好處，特別是在價格、實現方面、庫存管理方面和供應鏈可視性方面。

So, all those things can be done much faster by implementing certain tools, so we felt it was given where we were in the project based on what it would cost to implement it across the globe, it would be a long time and a lot of dollars required versus what we can do with these small subset programs and and realize the benefits in a faster way.

所以，透過實施某些工具，所有這些事情都能夠更快地完成，所以我們覺得，考慮到我們在專案中所處的位置，以及在全球範圍內實施它的成本，這將是一個漫長的時間，需要大量的資金，而我們可以用這些小子集程式來更快地實現收益。

So, when we do we when we looked at the two options, it was clear to us that this was the right direction to move.

因此，當我們看到這兩個選項時，我們很清楚這是正確的方向。

Alright, thank you for that.

好的，謝謝你。

And then, other question I had was on healthcare. It sounds like healthcare was kind of a driver in both segments in the fourth quarter.

然後，我的另一個問題是關於醫療保健的。聽起來醫療保健是第四季這兩個部門的推動力。

Can you give a little bit more detail on the strength that you were seeing, in the fourth quarter and how you would expect trends, to play out in 2025?

您能否詳細介紹一下您在第四季看到的強勁表現，以及您預計 2025 年的趨勢將如何？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, let me just start by saying that healthcare was a very strong area of focus for us and also the team delivered double-digit growth in 2024 total year, and then also in Q4 it was double-digit growth as well.

是的，首先我要說的是，醫療保健是我們非常關注的領域，而且該團隊在 2024 年全年實現了兩位數的增長，並且在第四季度也實現了兩位數的增長。

We saw, north of 15% growth numbers both in EMEA and Asia also, [USA] was pretty, or to kind of close to mid-single digit growth in healthcare and it was driven by both the businesses as you said, in the U.S. we saw restocking of certain healthcare healthcare supplies, medical supplies area.

我們看到，歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞洲的成長率都超過了 15%，其中美國醫療保健領域的成長率相當高，或者說接近中等個位數成長，正如您所說，這是由兩項業務共同推動的，在美國，我們看到某些醫療保健用品、醫療用品領域的補貨。

Also, we want some new business around new business, with respect to, continuous glucose monitoring devices that is creating new business for us.

此外，我們也想圍繞新業務開展一些新業務，例如持續血糖監測設備，這為我們創造了一些新業務。

We also saw, some business in Asia come from the new drug delivery devices like this injector fence for diabetes, drugs, etc. Which is also a new business for us.

我們也看到，亞洲的一些業務來自新型藥物輸送裝置，例如用於糖尿病、藥物等的注射器圍欄。

And then finally in EMEA again, this remote monitoring devices was a new business for us that we were seeing that was leading to this double-digit kind of growth that we saw in EMEA as well.

最後，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，遠端監控設備對我們來說是一項新業務，我們看到它正在推動歐洲、中東和非洲地區實現兩位數的成長。

So, overall, I would say it's a mix of new business wins that the team has had in areas that are growing fast, which are, remote monitoring devices as well as injector pens.

因此，總的來說，我認為這是該團隊在快速成長的領域中的一系列新業務勝利，這些領域包括遠端監控設備以及注射筆。

But also winning in the core, which is where, we have applications for medical devices as well as restocking happening in the area of medical equipment like nebulizers and peppers kind of applications.

但我們也在核心領域取得了勝利，我們在醫療設備領域有應用，並且在霧化器和胡椒等應用領域進行了補貨。

Sounds good thank you.

聽起來不錯，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question will come from David Huang with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Huang。您的線路已開通。

Hi, Good morning.

你好，早安。

Just want to follow up on defence. Is the base casing '25 still a missing digit growth?

只是想跟進防守。基礎套管'25 是否仍為缺失數字成長？

And also, I guess, given the tough comp in '24 and potentially '25, do you expect defence volume and earnings that could be down year-over-year in '26, or do you think that'll be offset by some of the new innovations and new generation of technologies you have here?

而且，考慮到 24 年和 25 年的艱難競爭，您是否預計 26 年的國防產量和收益可能會同比下降，或者您是否認為這將被您的一些新創新和新一代技術所抵消？

Yeah, thanks David.

是的，謝謝大衛。

First, let me just talk about 2025 here, I think the single digit is the right way to think about it, with respect to, we grew a double-digits in defence in 2024.

首先，讓我在這裡談談 2025 年，我認為個位數是正確的思考方式，相對於我們在 2024 年的防守增長了兩位數。

I believe we grew 14% or so in 2024, so, it is a big comp to overcome and I think 5% or so or maybe single digits is the right way to think about it.

我相信我們在 2024 年的成長率為 14% 左右，因此，這是一個需要克服的重大挑戰，我認為 5% 左右甚至個位數是正確的思考方式。

We obviously our teams continue to, pick up more wins as they come and I would say that 2026 similarly I mean we. It's hard for us to comment, this is a lumpy business.

顯然，我們的團隊會繼續取得更多的勝利，我想說 2026 年我們也會也是如此。我們很難發表評論，這是一項不穩定的業務。

So I don't want to speculate on 2026, but all I can tell you is that we are trying to build our pipelines for the future and a lot of what we will sell in 2026 will be expected in this year.

所以我不想對 2026 年進行猜測，但我可以告訴你的是，我們正在努力為未來建立我們的管道，預計 2026 年銷售的許多產品將在今年實現。

So, as the year progresses, we'll have better visibility, but at this point, I think, mixing a digit kind of a number is the right way to think about it.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將有更好的可見性，但在這一點上，我認為，混合數字是思考它的正確方式。

Got it. And then just back to the guidance, what's the baseline volume assumptions you have, embedded in your guidance, and I guess how much of that will come from new product introductions and, I guess which and markets will those come from?

知道了。然後回到指導，您在指導中所嵌入的基準銷售假設是什麼，我猜其中有多少將來自新產品的推出，我猜這些將來自哪些市場？

Yeah, I want to calibrate with respect to guidance we gave a range and you know if you take 2024 as a reference point, our weighted average real GDP in the regions that we operate, if you weigh them with the the revenue exposure we have two different regions.

是的，我想根據我們給出的範圍進行校準，你知道，如果你以 2024 年為參考點，我們經營所在地區的加權平均實際 GDP，如果你將它們與收入風險進行權衡，我們有兩個不同的地區。

The real GDP was close to 2.5% or so, and we grew organic local currency growth by 4%. So that gives you a feel for that we were doing better, it was all volume or or demand driven growth.

實質GDP接近2.5%左右，有機本幣成長率達4%。所以這讓你感覺到我們做得更好，這都是由數量或需求驅動的成長。

I think if in 2025, at least on the paper, the the GDP projections are similar so the data point are our midpoint, in our guidance. It's kind of, mirroring that part that we should do kind of a similar year as we did in 2024 if the GDP is the same.

我認為，如果到 2025 年，至少從紙上看，GDP 預測相似，那麼數據點就是我們的中點，符合我們的指導。這有點像是，如果 GDP 相同，我們應該做與 2024 年類似的一年。

Of course this is a different year than last year. The comps are different but also the environment is different. But given, just to give a context, that's where we are at the midpoint.

當然，今年和去年有所不同。公司不同，環境也不同。但有鑑於此，僅給出一個背景，這就是我們所處的中間點。

With respect to how much new products, so I think what we should think about is typically if you think about organic currency growth that we've been talking about. You know that's volume, price, and mix.

關於新產品的數量，我認為我們應該考慮的通常是我們一直在談論的有機貨幣成長。您知道這就是數量、價格和組合。

I think typically in a normal year, if there's nothing uncertain like COVID or something going on, we should be able to use price to offset the inflation.

我認為，在正常年份，如果沒有發生像 COVID 這樣的不確定因素或其他事件，我們應該能夠用價格來抵消通貨膨脹。

So, for us volume and mix should be able to give GDP plus 100 basis points to 200 basis points of growth that we promised a day, yesterday, and that's how we are thinking for our business going forward and that's how the teams are operating.

所以，對我們來說，產量和產品組合應該能夠為 GDP 帶來 100 個基點到 200 個基點的成長，正如我們昨天承諾的那樣，這就是我們對未來業務的思考，也是團隊的運作方式。

Of course in that mix is a new product piece that you asked about and and innovation is a key central part of our strategy as you saw on our strategic drivers. So, my guess is that it is going to be a significant part of that mix part of the new business that all these new businesses that we are winning is coming from innovation and I think you will continue to see that ramp up more and more as time goes on over our strategic period.

當然，在這個組合中有一個您問到的新產品，而且創新是我們策略的關鍵核心部分，正如您在我們的策略驅動力中所看到的。因此，我的猜測是，它將成為新業務組合的重要組成部分，我們贏得的所有這些新業務都來自創新，我認為，隨著我們戰略期的推移，您將繼續看到這種增長越來越多。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question will come from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可·西森。您的線路已開通。

Hey, Good morning, nice end of the year.

嘿，早上好，美好的一年結束了。

It looks like FX will be around a 5% headwind in '25 versus '24. I think you noted that 60% of your sales are overseas.

看起來，與2024年相比，2025年的外匯逆風幅度將達到5%左右。我記得您曾提到，你們 60% 的銷售額來自海外。

Seems like the new administration wants to bring more manufacturing into the U.S., so is that, given your mix of businesses, is that a positive or negative for Avient, longer term?

新政府似乎希望將更多的製造業引入美國，那麼，考慮到你們的業務組合，從長遠來看，這對 Avient 來說是利好還是利空？

Yeah, Mike, let me just answer this way.

是的，麥克，讓我這樣回答吧。

I mean, if you look at our two businesses, CAI and SEM is 55% U.S. based and CAI is 33% or so U.S. based. So, the exposure of CAI business for the color business to FX changes is higher than on the SEM side.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們的兩家公司，CAI 和 SEM 有 55% 位於美國，而 CAI 有 33% 左右位於美國。因此，色彩業務的 CAI 業務受外匯變化的影響比 SEM 業務更高。

And so, and that business is very local, we have to play very close to the customer because the response time on that business is of a few days, 10 to 20 days maximum, and so, if you are working with that kind of scenario, you cannot really bring that color apart, very far away from where the customer is.

而且，由於該業務是非常本地化的，我們必須非常貼近客戶，因為該業務的回應時間只有幾天，最多 10 到 20 天，所以，如果您在這種情況下工作，您無法真正將顏色分開，離客戶很遠。

So, I think on the CAI side FX is going to be continuing to be a headwind if the dollar continues to strengthen on the SEM side, it's more, a business which is back in like defence and all where, we have a higher pricing power, so to say, and innovation going on.

因此，我認為，如果美元在 SEM 方面繼續走強，那麼在 CAI 方面，外匯將繼續成為阻力，這更多的是一種回到國防等業務領域的業務，我們擁有更高的定價權，並且創新正在進行中。

So, overall our FX exposure is quite, large compared to other U.S. companies, as you said, 60% of our businesses outside U.S..

因此，總體而言，與其他美國公司相比，我們的外匯風險敞口相當大，正如您所說，我們 60% 的業務在美國境外。

And that's, depending on which way the dollar go one way or another we could benefit or be a headwind in 2025, certainly it's a headwind and maybe Jamie you can quantify that on the EPS side on how much headwind is we're looking at for 2025.

這取決於美元的趨勢，無論哪種情況，我們可能會在 2025 年受益或遭遇阻力，當然是阻力，也許 Jamie 您可以從 EPS 方面量化一下我們在 2025 年面臨的阻力有多大。

Yeah, like we said in the earnings release, it's about a $0.12 headway on a year-to-year basis. And then on EBITDA basis of around $15 million for what we see today and obviously things are dynamic with regards to what's going on in the world, specifically with, tariffs and reciprocal.

是的，就像我們在收益報告中說的那樣，與去年同期相比，我們的利潤增長了約 0.12 美元。然後，以我們今天看到的 EBITDA 約為 1500 萬美元為基礎，顯然，隨著世界局勢的發展，特別是關稅和互惠，情況是動態的。

That's between the different countries and as Ashish mentioned before the majority of what we do in all the countries in which we operate is for local consumption and our exposure outside of that is relatively small, it's less than 5% of our sales.

這是在不同國家之間進行的，正如 Ashish 之前提到的，我們在所有開展業務的國家中所做的大部分工作都是為了當地消費，我們在當地以外的業務曝光率相對較小，不到我們銷售額的 5％。

However, how does that going to actually impact demand if inflation takes off is really what's unquantifiable at this point and it's another reason why we're, a little bit more cautious in our guidance because we're not sure how that's going to ultimately impact, buying behaviour.

然而，如果通膨開始上升，這將如何影響需求，目前這確實是無法量化的，這也是我們在指導時更加謹慎的另一個原因，因為我們不確定這最終將如何影響購買行為。

And it's just the other part of the question as she says, if there's more manufacturing into the U.S., is that a net positive? For Avient.

正如她所說，這只是問題的另一部分，如果美國有更多的製造業，這是否會帶來淨收益？對於 Avient。

I think it should be. I mean, because we would be less exposed to FX and, honestly it's easy for us to move our supply chains.

我認為應該是如此。我的意思是，因為我們受外匯的影響較小，而且說實話我們可以輕鬆地轉移我們的供應鏈。

Really it relies on our customers, our exposure from a tariff perspective and RM exposure perspective is very less as Jamie said in her prepared remarks.

事實上，這依賴我們的客戶，正如 Jamie 在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，從關稅角度和 RM 角度來看，我們的曝險非常小。

So, that's really not an issue for us. I think we can serve our customers faster without being exposed to FX if the manufacturing moves here more so.

所以，這對我們來說真的不是問題。我認為，如果製造業進一步轉移到這裡，我們就可以更快地為客戶提供服務，而不會受到外匯的影響。

I got it. And then just curious on, a lot of the folks who've reported, have talked about Europe being continues to be really sluggish, if you will.

我得到了它。然後只是好奇，很多報告的人都談到歐洲經濟持續低迷，如果你願意的話。

Any thoughts just on Europe, it's a big part of your, sales, how's it sort of, doing it now and what are the ranges of outcomes for that, for that region do you think could happen in '25?

您對於歐洲有什麼看法？

Yeah, so, I just want to start by saying that on an organic, revenue growth perspective, we have had positive growth printed in Europe, EMEA for the last three quarters in a row now.

是的，所以，我首先想說的是，從有機收入成長的角度來看，我們在歐洲、歐洲、中東和非洲地區已經連續三個季度實現了正成長。

And it has overall, Q1 was a negative growth there and that's why overall for the year we ended up plus 1%, but for the last three quarters we've been winning in Europe.

總體而言，第一季歐洲市場是負成長，因此全年總體而言我們實現了 1% 的成長，但過去三個季度，我們在歐洲市場一直保持獲利。

I think we on an organic local currency basis, we should continue to drive on the color side we should continue to drive growth there.

我認為，在有機當地貨幣基礎上，我們應該繼續推動色彩方面的成長。

I think on the SEM side, it depends on, a lot of things including defence and and other parts of the business that whether, I guess what I'm going to say is it's more clear for us for us on the CAI side to drive organic growth there on the SEM side, it could be a little bit lumpy one way or another.

我認為在 SEM 方面，這取決於許多因素，包括防禦和其他業務部分，我想我要說的是，對於我們來說，在 CAI 方面推動 SEM 方面的有機增長更為清楚，無論如何，這可能會有點不平穩。

And so, but when you look at it from 2025 perspective. The GDP expectations of that region are close to 1.3%, 1.4%, based on our revenue exposures, and so that's much better than what they were last year, which was 0.8% or 0.9%.

但從 2025 年的角度來看。根據我們的收入敞口，該地區的 GDP 預期接近 1.3%、1.4%，這比去年的 0.8% 或 0.9% 要好得多。

So I'm expecting that our teams will do better this year in Europe than they did last year based on just the GDP projections.

因此，我預計，僅根據 GDP 預測，我們的團隊今年在歐洲的表現將比去年更好。

Got it thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

And our next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。您的線路已開通。

Hi, this is Steve Haynes on for Vincent.

大家好，我是文森的史蒂夫海恩斯。

I was hoping you could help a little bit with the full year EBITDA guide and bridging it, maybe just kind of at the segment level, kind of you touched on volume before, but maybe just from the margin side of it.

我希望您能對全年 EBITDA 指南提供一點幫助，並將其聯繫起來，也許只是在細分層面，您之前提到過銷量，但也許只是從利潤方面。

How we should be thinking about that.

我們應該如何思考這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would say that the guidance that we presented today really represents our best view based on the macro, dynamics that are there, Ashish mentioned real broadly on how we expect, volume to evolve over that time frame and especially with some of the macro dynamics that could influence that.

我想說的是，我們今天提出的指導確實代表了我們基於宏觀動態的最佳觀點，Ashish 廣泛地提到了我們預期在這段時間內交易量將如何變化，特別是一些可能影響這一點的宏觀動態。

From a margin expansion we do expect to expand margins, similar to what we had mentioned during our investor day where we expect to get operating leverage from the increase of sales some mixed impact based on the innovation that we expect to continue to grow in excess of GDP and then lastly some productivity measures that are also in flight, so we do expect some margin expansion.

從利潤率擴大來看，我們確實預期利潤率會擴大，類似於我們在投資者日提到的，我們預計從銷售額的成長中獲得營業槓桿，基於創新的一些混合影響，我們預計成長將繼續超過 GDP，最後是一些也在進行的生產力措施，所以我們確實預計利潤率會有所擴大。

I would say, expectations on a year by year basis would be in that 25 to 75 bits that are out there, maybe another piece to consider is that we do expect inflation to continue, roughly about 2% or so.

我想說，按年計算的預期將在 25 到 75 位之間，也許另一個需要考慮的因素是，我們確實預計通膨將繼續，大約在 2% 左右。

As we go forward on the raw materials side, but we do expect to offset that with pricing as needed. Hopefully that gives you a little bit more color of how we expect the EBITDA, EPS to fall through.

隨著我們在原材料方面的進步，我們確實希望根據需要透過定價來抵消這一點。希望這能讓您更清楚地了解我們預期的 EBITDA 和 EPS 將如何下降。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

And our next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯汀歐文。您的線路已開通。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking the question. As she mentioned in your prepared remarks January you you started a new compensation, strategy. It's really related to taking these bigger shots on goals, some of the strategy that you outlined at Investor Day.

感謝您回答這個問題。正如她在您準備好的演講中提到的那樣，一月份您開始了一項新的薪資策略。這確實與採取更大的目標有關，這也是您在投資者日概述的一些策略。

So I'm wondering how is that manifesting through your, sales organization, what are some of the KPIs that you've aligned to that incentive structure to and and how should we as as sort of the outsiders be tracking those KPIs.

所以我想知道這在您的銷售組織中是如何體現的，您將哪些 KPI 與激勵結構相結合，以及我們作為外部人員應該如何追蹤這些 KPI。

I think it's, as you said, January was just last month, so it's we have been pushing it down, like from mid January we rolled it out and so the communication has been going out so far the response has been quite positive, of course we have not seen that it's too early to say the results and so on and so forth, so I won't comment on that part right now, Kristen.

我認為，正如你所說，一月份剛剛過去一個月，所以我們一直在推遲它，比如從一月中旬我們就推出了它，所以到目前為止，溝通一直在進行，反響非常積極，當然我們還沒有看到現在說結果還為時過早，所以克里斯汀，我現在不會對這部分發表評論。

I think the big thing that we made the change was that we had done extensive portfolio prioritization and based on that, different businesses were in different buckets. We we had businesses that had to grow faster, much faster than than than the the macro wall, there are businesses that would be growing GDP plus and then there are businesses that we expect to drive more income and focus more on cash generation versus growth.

我認為我們所做的重大改變是我們對投資組合進行了廣泛的優先排序，並在此基礎上將不同的業務劃分為不同的類別。我們的企業必須成長得更快，比宏觀經濟成長快得多，有些企業的成長速度要高於 GDP，有些企業我們預期會推動更多的收入，並且更注重現金創造而不是成長。

And so the the the new incentive plan kind of drives those behaviours and rewards each of those businesses differently versus having one standard package for the entire company.

因此，新的激勵計劃會以不同的方式推動這些行為並對每項業務進行獎勵，而不是為整個公司提供一套標準方案。

And I think that's a big difference, so, based on what the business is supposed to drive, that's the primary KPI or metric we have set for that business, whether it's sales growth or operating income growth or whatever the case might be.

我認為這是一個很大的區別，所以，根據業務的預期目標，我們為該業務設定了主要的 KPI 或指標，無論是銷售額成長、營業收入成長或其他任何情況。

And of course at a company level, if there is a part in the metrics which everybody has to deliver because there's a company level contribution at that level so that, apart from driving their own businesses as they're also helping the company drive what the whole company needs to drive it's a balance of those things.

當然，在公司層面，如果指標中有一部分是每個人都必須履行的，因為在那個層面上公司層面有貢獻，所以，除了推動自己的業務之外，他們還幫助公司推動整個公司需要推動的事情，這是這些事情之間的平衡。

It's a little bit more complex plan than what we had previously, but I think it's the right plan and it's a more customized plan for each businesses where they are on the life cycle of their portfolio.

與我們之前的計劃相比，這個計劃稍微複雜一些，但我認為這是正確的計劃，而且是一個針對每個企業在其投資組合生命週期中製定的更加定制化的計劃。

Okay, thank you for that color.

好的，謝謝你的顏色。

My second question sort of relates to that cash generation piece of this, just, an update me Jamie, on the free cash flow outlook just from an EBITDA growth perspective but also in line of the decision to pause the the ERP spend.

我的第二個問題與現金創造部分有關，Jamie，請您更新自由現金流的前景，不僅是從 EBITDA 成長的角度，也符合暫停 ERP 支出的決定。

Yeah, so absolutely, so from a free cash.

是的，絕對是，來自免費現金。

Flow perspective, the range that we're anticipating at this point is between $180 million and $200 million. Some of the key components of that would be, as you mentioned, earnings growth, so assuming the midpoint of the range, that's about a $20 million dollar, increase on a year-by-year basis.

從流量角度來看，我們目前預計的範圍在 1.8 億美元至 2 億美元之間。正如您所說，其中的關鍵因素包括獲利成長，假設中間值是每年增加約 2000 萬美元。

You may have also seen, in our press, release and the attachments, that we also expect to receive insurance proceeds, from one of our environmental sites in the first quarter which will also be a tailwind as we go into 2025, the net of that on a year to year basis should be approximately $40 million.

您可能還在我們的新聞稿和附件中看到，我們還預計將在第一季從我們的一個環境站點獲得保險收益，這也將成為我們進入 2025 年的順風，按年計算的淨額應約為 4000 萬美元。

And then the other piece to think about is that we do have an incentive pay out, that was different than '24 versus '25, and that will be a headwind, they some of those parts really get you the $180 million to $200 million on a year-to-year basis.

然後要考慮的另一件事是，我們確實有激勵性支出，這與 24 年和 25 年不同，這將是一個阻力，其中一些部分確實可以為您帶來每年 1.8 億至 2 億美元的收入。

Okay, anything on the CapEx Story.

好的，任何有關 CapEx Story 的內容。

About 120 million or so. We're still evaluating, that number because we want to make sure that she mentioned we're really focused on growing the top line, that's in our estimate at this juncture.

大概1.2億左右。我們仍在評估這個數字，因為我們想確保她提到的我們確實專注於增加營收，這是我們目前的估計。

It may swing a little bit depending on what growth factors that we plan to fund this year, and that would be, partially offset by, I'm sorry, or funded by some of the, CapEx avoidance from the F4 project that we had mentioned before.

它可能會略有波動，這取決於我們今年計劃資助的成長因素，而這將被部分抵消，對不起，或者由我們之前提到的 F4 項目的資本支出避免所資助。

Great, thank you so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

And our final question will come from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Your line is open.

我們的最後一個問題來自傑富瑞（Jefferies）的勞倫斯·亞歷山大（Laurence Alexander）。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning. This is, Kevin on for Lawrence.

嘿，早安。這是凱文 (Kevin) 代替勞倫斯 (Lawrence)。

Most of my questions have been asked, but I guess I'll focus a little bit on markets, I just want to get initial sense of, what you were seeing, in terms of demand in China after the new year and, separately maybe what you're seeing in automotive and markets.

我的大部分問題都已經被問過了，但我想我會重點關註一下市場，我只是想初步了解一下，就新年後中國的需求而言，以及您在汽車和市場方面看到的情況。

Yeah, so let me just say that China for us in Q4 grew 7%. Greater China area and pretty strong growth, much higher than the GDP, and most of our business there is for local, about 30% goes outside for export.

是的，我只想說，第四季中國經濟成長了 7%。大中華區的成長相當強勁，遠高於GDP，我們在那裡的大部分業務都是針對本地的，約30％是出口。

So, we are seeing pretty good growth there and I think you one should be also growing quite well. We are also gaining ground in some of the new technologies of semiconductor and servers for digital, you hear all this noise about AI and everything and we are a small part of that and and playing into that with some of the customers putting the servers together.

所以，我們看到那裡的成長相當不錯，我認為你們的成長也應該相當好。我們也在數位半導體和伺服器的一些新技術方面取得進展，你可以聽到有關人工智慧等的所有聲音，我們只是其中的一小部分，並且和一些將伺服器整合在一起的客戶一起參與其中。

So, we are getting into digital economy in China as well, Greater China area, but also Southeast Asia, which is a big hub for digital and so I think from that perspective, I expect good growth in China, Greater China area and Southeast Asia going forward, which is, about 80% of our Asia sales in Southeast Asia and China.

因此，我們也正在進入中國、大中華區以及東南亞的數位經濟領域，東南亞是數位經濟的重要樞紐，因此我認為從這個角度來看，我預計未來中國、大中華區和東南亞將實現良好的成長，也就是說，我們在亞洲的銷售額約 80% 來自東南亞和中國。

Got it and then just on on auto?

明白了然後就自動打開了？

Yeah, Auto continue to grow.

是的，汽車繼續增長。

We had very good growth in transportation area in in China in Q4 close to 20% year-over-year and, I think the EV market there is still in Q1 positive, although we did not see the same story in [UA] and EMEA, but in China, EVs continue to grow and so we are continuing to get back into that and and winning business there.

我們在中國的交通運輸領域第四季度實現了非常好的增長，同比增長近 20%。

So, I would say little slower in EV production versus last year but still, I would say around mid single digit kind of production numbers volume production.

因此，我認為電動車的生產與去年相比會略有放緩，但我仍然認為產量會維持在個位數的中等水平。

Understood thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Thank you for participating. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。