阿帕契 (APA) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to APA Corporation's third-quarter financial and operational results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, [Stephane Aka], Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加APA公司第三季財務與營運業績電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。現在,我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係總經理史蒂芬‧阿卡 (Stephane Aka)。請繼續。

  • Stephane Aka - Director of Investor Relations

    Stephane Aka - Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us on APA Corporation's third quarter 2025 financial and operational results conference call. We will begin the call with an overview by CEO, John Christmann. Ben Rodgers, CFO, will then provide further color on our results and outlook. Steve Riney, President; and Tracey Henderson, Executive Vice President of Exploration, are also on the call and available to answer questions.

    早安,感謝各位參加APA公司2025年第三季財務及營運績效電話會議。我們將首先由執行長約翰·克里斯特曼作概述。財務長本·羅傑斯隨後將進一步介紹我們的業績和展望。公司總裁史蒂夫·里尼和勘探執行副總裁特雷西·亨德森也參加了電話會議,並回答問題。

  • We will start with prepared remarks and allocate the remainder of time to Q&A. In conjunction with yesterday's press release, I hope you've had the opportunity to review our financial and operational supplement which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.apacorp.com.

    我們將首先進行準備好的發言,並將剩餘時間用於問答環節。結合昨天的媒體發布,希望您有機會查閱我們的財務和營運補充文件,該文件可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.apacorp.com 上找到。

  • Please note that we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the supplemental information provided on our website. Consistent with previous reporting practices, adjusted production numbers cited in today's call are adjusted to exclude noncontrolling interest in Egypt and Egypt tax barrels.

    請注意,我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則(non-GAAP)財務指標。有關這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標之間差異的調整表,請參閱我們網站上提供的補充資訊。與以往的報告慣例一致,今天電話會議中提到的調整後產量數字已進行調整,以排除埃及的非控制權益和埃及稅收桶。

  • I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion will contain forward-looking estimates and assumptions based on our current views and reasonable expectations. However, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss on today's call. A full disclaimer is located with the supplemental information on our website. And with that, I will turn the call over to John.

    我想提醒大家,今天的討論將包含基於我們當前觀點和合理預期的前瞻性估計和假設。然而,許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們今天電話會議中討論的內容有重大差異。完整的免責聲明位於我們網站的補充資訊部分。接下來,我會把電話交給約翰。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us. On today's call, I will review our third quarter results, outline our continued progress across key strategic initiatives, and discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter and our preliminary plans for 2026. This year's macro environment has remained challenging, characterized by heightened volatility and uncertainty in commodity prices, largely driven by shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions.

    早安,感謝各位的參與。在今天的電話會議上,我將回顧我們第三季度的業績,概述我們在關鍵戰略舉措方面取得的持續進展,並討論我們對第四季度的展望以及我們對 2026 年的初步計劃。今年的宏觀環境依然充滿挑戰,大宗商品價格波動性和不確定性加劇,這主要是由於貿易政策的變化和地緣政治緊張局勢所致。

  • While these external factors have created headwinds for the industry, they also underscore the progress that we've made at APA over the past two years. At the core of these efforts is a strong focus on lowering our controllable spend, which is delivering meaningful and sustainable improvements in our cost structure.

    雖然這些外部因素給產業帶來了不利影響,但也凸顯了 APA 在過去兩年中取得的進步。這些努力的核心是重點降低可控支出,從而為我們的成本結構帶來有意義且可持續的改進。

  • Additionally, through disciplined capital allocation, a reshaped and more resilient portfolio and a sharper operational focus, we've built a stronger, more adaptable organization, one that can perform through cycles and respond quickly to changing market conditions. Our strategy is working, and the benefits are increasingly evident across both our operations and financial performance. With a stronger foundation in place, APA is well positioned to navigate any oil price environment for 2026.

    此外,透過嚴格的資本配置、重組和更具韌性的投資組合以及更明確的營運重點,我們建立了一個更強大、更具適應性的組織,該組織能夠經受週期性波動並快速應對不斷變化的市場狀況。我們的策略正在奏效,其益處在我們的營運和財務表現中都越來越明顯。憑藉更堅實的基礎,APA 已做好充分準備,應對 2026 年的任何油價環境。

  • Turning to the third quarter. Results were once again very strong across the board. We have exceeded our production guidance in each of our operating areas, while capital investment and operating costs were below guidance. In the Permian, continued strong operational execution resulted in oil production above guidance, while capital investment and operating costs were in line with expectations.

    進入第三節。各項指標再次表現強勁。我們在所有營運領域的產量均超過了預期,而資本投資和營運成本均低於預期。在二疊紀盆地,持續強勁的營運執行使得石油產量超過預期,而資本投資和營運成本符合預期。

  • Moving to Egypt. In addition to the significant acreage award we previously discussed, we also received substantial payments during the third quarter, nearly eliminating our past due receivables. This progress reflects the strength of our partnership with the Egyptian government.

    移居埃及。除了我們之前討論過的大片土地獎勵外,我們在第三季還收到了大量款項,幾乎清償了我們過去的應收帳款。這項進展反映了我們與埃及政府夥伴關係的牢固性。

  • Operationally, once again, gross BOEs grew sequentially in Egypt, underpinned by the ongoing success of our gas program. This reflects both strong well performance and continued optimization of infrastructure. On the oil side, our waterflood and recompletions programs are moderating our base decline and flattening our near-term gross oil production.

    在營運方面,埃及的總油氣當量再次環比成長,這得益於我們天然氣計畫的持續成功。這不僅反映了油井的良好性能,也體現了基礎設施的持續優化。在石油方面,我們的注水和完井計畫正在減緩我們的基礎產量下降,並使我們的近期石油總產量趨於穩定。

  • In the North Sea, our continued focus on operating efficiency and cost management drove higher production and lower costs compared to our guidance. We remain focused on optimizing our late life operations and are preparing to decommission our assets in a safe, efficient and environmentally responsible manner. Finally, in Suriname, progress at GranMorgu continues at pace, and first oil remains on track for mid-2028.

    在北海,我們持續專注於營運效率和成本管理,與預期相比,產量更高,成本更低。我們將繼續專注於優化後期運營,並準備以安全、高效和對環境負責的方式退役我們的資產。最後,在蘇利南,格蘭莫爾古油田的建設進展順利,預計首批石油將於 2028 年年中投產。

  • Moving to our outlook for the fourth quarter. In the Permian, following another strong quarter of operational execution, we are raising our guidance for oil production while maintaining our outlook for capital spend. On the gas side, with the recent dislocation of Waha pricing, we are adjusting our guidance to reflect temporary curtailments in the field. Although this slightly reduces our BOE volumes, the impact to free cash flow will be minimal.

    接下來談談我們對第四季的展望。在二疊紀盆地,繼又一個季度強勁的營運執行之後,我們提高了石油產量預期,同時維持了資本支出展望。天然氣方面,由於瓦哈油田價格近期出現波動,我們正在調整績效指引,以反映該油田的暫時減產。雖然這會略微減少我們的油當量產量,但對自由現金流的影響將微乎其微。

  • In Egypt, we are slightly increasing our fourth quarter production estimates in line with the ongoing momentum from our gas program. We are also drilling several high-potential exploration wells including on our newly acquired acreage. The Western Desert presents a vast and highly prospective opportunity set. And although we are early in our gas exploration program, success here could be impactful for our portfolio.

    在埃及,我們根據天然氣項目的持續發展勢頭,略微上調了第四季度的產量預期。我們還在包括我們新收購的土地上在內的多個地區鑽探幾口高潛力勘探井。西部沙漠蘊藏著廣闊且極具發展前景的機會。雖然我們的天然氣勘探計劃還處於早期階段,但在這裡取得成功可能會對我們的投資組合產生重大影響。

  • Turning now to our cost reduction initiatives. Our commitment to reducing every aspect of our controllable spend has been evident all year, and I want to recognize the diligence of our teams and the strong alignment among leaders across the organization. Through their collective efforts, we've made significant changes to our operations and driven meaningful improvements in both capital and operational efficiency.

    接下來,我們來談談降低成本的措施。今年以來,我們一直致力於減少可控支出的各個方面,這一點顯而易見。我要感謝我們團隊的辛勤付出以及整個組織領導層的高度一致。透過他們的共同努力,我們對營運進行了重大改革,並在資本效率和營運效率方面取得了顯著進步。

  • We are now on track to realize $300 million in savings this year and are also positioned to reach our run rate savings target of $350 million by the end of 2025 and two full years ahead of the original goal of year-end 2027. Looking ahead, we see significant opportunity to build on this momentum, driving additional efficiency gains and further simplifying how we work. Through these efforts, we aim to deliver an additional $50 million to $100 million in combined run rate savings across G&A, capital and LOE by the end of next year.

    我們現在預計在今年實現 3 億美元的節省目標,並且預計在 2025 年底前實現 3.5 億美元的年度節約目標,比原定的 2027 年底目標提前整整兩年。展望未來,我們看到了利用這一勢頭取得更大發展的機會,從而進一步提高效率,並進一步簡化我們的工作方式。透過這些努力,我們的目標是到明年年底在一般管理費用、資本支出和營運支出方面實現額外 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的綜合年度節約。

  • Moving to our preliminary plans for 2026. With the recent volatility in oil prices, we are evaluating multiple capital allocation scenarios with a focus on free cash flow generation. While we have significantly improved our cost structure and reduced breakevens across our asset base in the last 18 months, we believe a flexible approach to capital investment is warranted in the current price environment.

    接下來介紹我們2026年的初步計畫。鑑於近期油價波動,我們正在評估多種資本配置方案,並專注於自由現金流的產生。雖然在過去的 18 個月裡,我們大幅改善了成本結構,降低了資產基礎的損益平衡點,但我們認為,在當前的價格環境下,採取靈活的資本投資方式是必要的。

  • In the Permian, at our current pace of 5 rigs, we expect to deliver consistent year-over-year oil production of approximately 120,000 barrels per day, with capital investment of around $1.3 billion. However, if oil prices move lower, we have the operational flexibility to moderate activity to reduce capital further with minimal expected impact on 2026 oil volumes.

    在二疊紀盆地,以我們目前 5 座鑽井平台的建設速度,我們預計每年可穩定生產約 12 萬桶石油,資本投資約 13 億美元。然而,如果油價下跌,我們有足夠的營運彈性來調整活動,進一步減少資本投入,預計對 2026 年石油產量的影響最小。

  • In Egypt, we plan to maintain consistent activity levels and capital spend with a similar allocation between oil and gas drilling as this year. This would allow us to grow gas volumes on a gross basis year-over-year, gross oil production will remain on a modest decline. We will continue to monitor commodity prices over the coming months, and we'll provide formal guidance for 2026 in February.

    在埃及,我們計劃保持與今年類似的活動水準和資本支出,石油和天然氣鑽探之間的分配比例也將保持不變。這將使我們能夠實現天然氣總產量逐年增長,而石油總產量將繼續小幅下降。未來幾個月我們將持續關注大宗商品價格,並將於2月發布2026年的正式業績指引。

  • In closing, our third quarter results underscored strong operational performance and consistent execution across all operating areas. Through the rigorous focus of our teams, we are driving significant cost savings ahead of schedule and increasing our targets for the future. As we head into 2026, we will remain disciplined in our capital allocation and continue prioritizing free cash flow generation.

    總之,我們第三季的業績凸顯了強勁的營運表現和所有營運領域的持續執行力。透過團隊的嚴格專注,我們提前實現了顯著的成本節約,並提高了未來的目標。展望 2026 年,我們將繼續保持資本配置的嚴謹性,並繼續優先考慮自由現金流的產生。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Ben.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給本。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, John. For the third quarter, under generally accepted accounting principles, APA reported consolidated net income of $205 million or $0.57 per diluted common share. As usual, these results include items that are outside of core earnings, the most significant of which was $148 million unrealized loss on derivatives. Excluding this and other smaller items, adjusted net income for the third quarter was $332 million or $0.93 per share.

    謝謝你,約翰。根據公認會計原則,APA 第三季合併淨收入為 2.05 億美元,即每股攤薄普通股收益 0.57 美元。與往常一樣,這些結果包括核心收益以外的項目,其中最重要的是衍生性商品未實現損失 1.48 億美元。剔除此項及其他較小項目後,第三季調整後淨收入為 3.32 億美元,即每股 0.93 美元。

  • LOE came in below guidance, largely due to ongoing cost savings primarily in the North Sea. G&A was in line with guidance despite a larger-than-expected impact from mark-to-market adjustments related to stock compensation. On an underlying basis, G&A was approximately $15 million below guidance. We continue to progress multiple initiatives across all categories of G&A and expect this momentum to carry into 2026.

    LOE 低於預期,主要原因是北海地區持續的成本節約。儘管與股票薪酬相關的市值調整的影響超出預期,但一般及行政費用仍符合預期。從基本面來看,一般及行政費用比預期低約 1,500 萬美元。我們持續推動各項管理費用類別中的多項舉措,並預期這一動能將延續到 2026 年。

  • Current income tax expense was lower than anticipated, primarily due to a change in our projected 2025 corporate alternative minimum tax. New guidelines issued by the US Treasury late in the quarter clarified the treatment of net operating losses and depreciation deductions under the minimum tax framework. As a result, we now expect to owe little to no US taxes in 2025 and 2026.

    目前所得稅支出低於預期,主要是由於我們對 2025 年企業替代最低稅的預測發生了變化。美國財政部在本季末發布的新指南明確了最低稅收框架下淨營業虧損和折舊扣除的處理方法。因此,我們預計在 2025 年和 2026 年幾乎不需要繳納美國稅款。

  • Overall, this was an excellent quarter during which APA generated $339 million of free cash flow and returned $154 million to investors through dividends and share buybacks. During the quarter, net debt was reduced by approximately $430 million through a combination of free cash flow generation and payments from Egypt.

    總體而言,這是一個非常出色的季度,APA 在此期間產生了 3.39 億美元的自由現金流,並透過股息和股票回購向投資者返還了 1.54 億美元。本季度,透過自由現金流的產生和來自埃及的付款,淨債務減少了約 4.3 億美元。

  • This balance sheet progress has enabled us to realize net financing cost savings excluding gains on the extinguishment of debt of $75 million so far in 2025 when compared to the same period in 2024. We ended the quarter with $475 million in cash, providing financial flexibility as we enter 2026. This gives us the ability to opportunistically repurchase debt, address upcoming maturities and thoughtfully manage the timing and execution of our decommissioning and asset retirement obligations.

    與 2024 年同期相比,資產負債表的改善使我們在 2025 年迄今實現了淨融資成本節約(不包括債務清償收益)7,500 萬美元。本季末,我們擁有 4.75 億美元的現金,這為我們進入 2026 年提供了財務靈活性。這使我們能夠抓住機會回購債務,應對即將到期的債務,並周全地管理我們的退役和資產報廢義務的時間和執行。

  • Turning now to our cost reduction initiatives. John already covered our progress to date and outline the targets we've set for 2026. So I'll focus on the key movements in our 2025 guidance for controllable spend items relative to the $300 million of savings we expect to achieve this year. While these savings are reflected in our guidance for LOE and G&A, there are a few offsetting effects within capital.

    接下來,我們來談談降低成本的措施。約翰已經介紹了我們迄今為止的進展,並概述了我們為 2026 年設定的目標。因此,我將重點放在我們 2025 年可控支出項目指導方針中的關鍵變動,這些變動與我們預計今年將實現的 3 億美元節省金額相關。雖然這些節省已反映在我們的營運支出和一般管理費用指引中,但在資本方面存在一些抵銷效應。

  • Since issuing our initial 2025 capital guidance in February, our teams have identified and implemented an additional $210 million in cost reduction opportunities, primarily in the Permian. Over the same time frame, our capital budget has been reduced by $150 million. This results in a $60 million difference between the change in our full year capital guidance and the change in capital cost savings, since the beginning of the year.

    自 2 月發布 2025 年初始資本指引以來,我們的團隊已經確定並實施了額外 2.1 億美元的成本削減機會,主要集中在二疊紀盆地。同期,我們的資本預算減少了 1.5 億美元。這導致我們全年資本指引的變化與年初以來資本成本節約的變化之間存在 6,000 萬美元的差異。

  • The largest portion of this variance is attributable to capital investments and LOE reduction initiatives. As highlighted last quarter, we identified several high-impact projects aimed at sustainably lowering future Permian operating costs, such as building saltwater disposal systems, consolidating field compression and other facility optimization projects.

    造成這種差異的最大部分是由於資本投資和降低營運成本的措施所造成的。正如上個季度所強調的,我們確定了幾個旨在可持續地降低未來二疊紀盆地運營成本的高影響力項目,例如建設鹽水處理系統、整合油田壓縮和其他設施優化項目。

  • Capital is being directed towards these efforts, which are expected to generate strong returns with short payback periods and position us for structural operating cost improvements in 2026 and beyond. Another component of this difference is activity related, which primarily relates to the completion of two DUCs at Alpine High this quarter.

    資金正投入這些工作中,預計這些工作將產生強勁的回報,投資回收期短,並使我們為 2026 年及以後的結構性營運成本改善做好準備。造成這種差異的另一個因素與活動有關,主要與本季在阿爾卑斯高中完成的兩份DUC有關。

  • Shifting to our oil and gas trading portfolio, which has been a meaningful and relatively steady contributor to free cash flow generation this year. Based on current strip pricing, we expect $630 million in pretax income from our trading activities for 2025. To enhance cash flow certainty heading into next year, we have added to our 2026 hedge positions. Currently, about one-third of next year's gas transport position is hedged, locking in roughly $140 million of cash flow.

    轉向我們的石油和天然氣交易組合,該組合今年一直是自由現金流產生的重要且相對穩定的貢獻者。根據目前的遠期價格,我們預計 2025 年交易活動稅前收入將達到 6.3 億美元。為了增強明年現金流的確定性,我們增加了 2026 年的對沖部位。目前,明年天然氣運輸部位約有三分之一已進行避險,鎖定了約 1.4 億美元的現金流。

  • Turning to our asset retirement and decommissioning obligations. Our goal is to reduce these liabilities through a prudent approach that balances operational efficiency with financial discipline. As an example, during the third quarter, we identified a well at one of the fields in the Gulf of America that require decommissioning. Rather than mobilizing a vessel for a single well and returning later to complete the remaining work we chose to decommission the entire field of five wells in a single campaign.

    接下來談談我們的資產報廢和退役義務。我們的目標是透過審慎的方式減少這些負債,在營運效率和財務紀律之間取得平衡。例如,在第三季度,我們發現美洲灣某油田有一口油井需要退休。我們沒有選擇為一個井調集船隻,然後再返回完成剩餘的工作,而是選擇在一次作業中完成整個油田五口井的退役。

  • This enabled us to capture meaningful operational efficiencies and reduce the total costs that would have been incurred over time. We have identified similar opportunities to execute during the fourth quarter, which led us to increase our full year 2025 ARO and decommissioning spend guidance by $20 million. Going forward, we will continue to pursue similar initiatives, proactively managing these liabilities in a way that is both operationally efficient and financially sound.

    這使我們能夠獲得有意義的營運效率,並降低隨著時間的推移而產生的總成本。我們在第四季度發現了類似的執行機會,因此我們將 2025 年全年 ARO 和退役支出預期提高了 2,000 萬美元。展望未來,我們將繼續推行類似舉措,積極主動地管理這些負債,力求在營運上有效率且在財務上穩健。

  • For 2026, we expect our combined ARO and decommissioning spend to increase, reflecting a decline in spending in the Gulf of America, offset by higher planned activity in the North Sea. As a reminder, APA receives a 40% tax benefit on all decommissioning spend incurred in the North Sea. Therefore, on an after-tax basis, our total spend will increase year-over-year by roughly $55 million.

    預計到 2026 年,我們的 ARO 和退役支出總額將會增加,這反映出美洲灣的支出有所下降,但北海計劃開展的活動有所增加,從而抵消了這一下降。提醒大家,APA 在北海所有退役支出可享有 40% 的稅收優惠。因此,稅後總支出將比上年增加約 5,500 萬美元。

  • In closing, as we enter 2026, our priorities remain centered on disciplined capital allocation, further cost reductions and continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. Our development capital inclusive of approximately $250 million for Suriname development, is expected to be 10% lower than 2025, reflecting improved capital efficiency across our portfolio.

    最後,展望 2026 年,我們的工作重點仍是:嚴格控制資本配置,進一步降低成本,並持續強化資產負債表。我們的開發資本(包括用於蘇利南開發的約 2.5 億美元)預計將比 2025 年減少 10%,這反映出我們投資組合的資本效率有所提高。

  • This preliminary plan positions APA to sustain Permian oil production deliver continued gas growth in Egypt and advance the world-class opportunity we're developing in Suriname Block 58. Together with our ongoing focus on reducing controllable spend, these actions further strengthened our foundation for durable free cash flow generation and long-term value creation.

    這項初步計畫使 APA 能夠維持二疊紀盆地的石油產量,在埃及實現天然氣產量的持續成長,並推進我們在蘇利南 58 號區塊開發的世界級機會。結合我們持續關注的減少可控支出,這些措施進一步鞏固了我們實現永續自由現金流和長期價值創造的基礎。

  • With that, I will turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

    這樣,我就把電話轉回接線生進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    道格‧萊格特,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, guys. So the capital guide is, I think, puts you below street for next year, but I'm curious John, if you could offer a little bit of color on the flexibility you suggested. I mean then we'll see if oil where oil ends up. But what's the nature of the flexibility you have? Because I think a few years ago, when oil prices collapsed, you allowed your Permian production to decline. It sounds like that's not the case this time.

    謝謝。各位早安。所以,我認為,根據資本指南,你明年的預期收益率低於市場水平,但約翰,我很好奇,你能不能詳細解釋一下你建議的靈活性?我的意思是,到時候我們就來看看石油最終會流向哪裡了。但你所擁有的彈性具體體現在哪些方面?因為我認為幾年前,當油價暴跌時,你們放任二疊紀盆地的石油產量下降。聽起來這次情況並非如此。

  • So is that a DUC manipulation? Is it drilling but not completing? Or can you walk us through where the flexibility is against what looks like a kind of sub $2.2 billion CapEx number now for next year?

    所以這是DUC操縱嗎?是鑽井但尚未完成嗎?或者,您能否為我們詳細說明一下,在明年資本支出似乎低於 22 億美元的情況下,靈活性體現在哪裡?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great question, Doug. I'll just start out with just in general. Our mindset going into '26 is focused on capital discipline. So -- and as you point out, we've got flexibility if oil prices move lower. Today, we envision a plan that's going to maintain Permian oil at about 120, while we're growing our BOEs in Egypt, driven by gas and still funding our Suriname and other exploration as well as our decom and ARO, development CapEx is down 10%.

    問得好,道格。我先從一般情況說起​​。展望2026年,我們的想法是注重資本紀律。所以——正如你所指出的,如果油價下跌,我們還有應對的彈性。今天,我們設想的計劃是,在埃及天然氣驅動下,將二疊紀盆地的石油產量維持在 120 桶左右,同時增加我們在埃及的石油產量,並繼續為我們在蘇利南和其他地區的勘探以及我們的退役和 ARO 提供資金,開發資本支出下降了 10%。

  • That's mainly in Egypt with CapEx -- or mainly in the US -- Permian with CapEx in Egypt being flat. So I think the other factor is we're going to continue to focus on the cost savings. Clearly, if things soften, as we've mentioned, there is room we could always decide to drop more rigs in the Permian or Egypt, if need be. But I think we're in a good place with a pretty good range and a pretty good cushion right now on oil price. So -- but there is flexibility.

    這主要發生在埃及,資本支出——或主要發生在美國——二疊紀盆地,而埃及的資本支出則保持穩定。所以我認為另一個因素是我們將繼續專注於節省成本。顯然,正如我們之前提到的,如果情況好轉,我們總是可以決定在必要時在二疊紀盆地或埃及增設鑽井平台。但我認為我們目前處境不錯,油價波動範圍相當可觀,也有一定的緩衝空間。所以——但還是有彈性的。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. I appreciate that. My follow-up is actually on Egypt. I mean, obviously, you continue -- it's almost kind of a beat and raise on your gas guidance. But there is some -- I guess there's been some discussions from it, certainly questions we've been getting about the legacy accelerated cost recovery or from when you re-sign the contract -- and what happens to -- how big a delta that could be on cash flow in 2026 as those legacy costs roll over.

    好的。我很感激。我的後續研究其實是關於埃及的。我的意思是,很明顯,你繼續下去——這幾乎就像是在你的油門控制上進行一次節拍和提升。但確實存在一些問題——我想已經有一些討論,我們當然也收到了一些關於遺留加速成本回收或重新簽署合約的問題——以及這些遺留成本結轉到 2026 年會對現金流造成多大的影響。

  • So I don't know if there's any way, Ben, is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts, but is there any way to kind of summarize what the potential delta could be on that in the context of your rising gas production?

    所以,我不知道有沒有辦法,本,這很複雜。涉及的因素很多,但有沒有辦法概括一下,在天然氣產量不斷增長的背景下,這方面可能存在的潛在差異是多少?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So when we modernized the contract about four years ago, we negotiated a recovery of a backlog of costs, and that was around $900 million. So per quarter, we've had the benefit of about $45 million. When that rolls off after the first quarter of next year, that $45 million, let me break it down, is the total number. We don't lose all of that, though, because of the way the PSC works, we only lose about 70% of it with the other 30% being picked up on the profit oil side.

    當然。因此,大約四年前我們對合約進行現代化改造時,我們協商收回了積壓的成本,金額約為 9 億美元。因此,每個季度我們都獲得了約 4500 萬美元的收益。當這筆款項在明年第一季結束後結清時,4500萬美元,讓我來詳細解釋一下,就是總數。不過,由於產品分成合約 (PSC) 的運作方式,我們並不會損失全部收益,我們只會損失約 70%,其餘 30% 的收益會在石油利潤方面得到補償。

  • So that $45 million is actually on a three-third basis closer to about $30 million. So net to our two-third interest, the cash flow impact on a quarterly basis is about $20 million. So for next year, again, since we still have it through the first quarter, so for three quarters next year, it's roughly $60 million in Egypt. But we think with -- there's a number of different factors that we're working on to offset that, whether it's continued capital efficiencies in Egypt because we have seen those this year. A lot of the discussion this year has been on the Permian, but Egypt has made great strides on the capital front.

    所以,4500萬美元實際上是用三分之二的比例計算,更接近3000萬美元左右。因此,扣除我們三分之二的權益後,每季的現金流量影響約為 2,000 萬美元。所以,明年,由於我們還有第一季的時間,也就是明年三個季度的時間,埃及的收入大約是 6,000 萬美元。但我們認為,我們正在努力透過多種不同的因素來抵消這種情況,例如埃及持續提高資本效率,因為我們今年已經看到了這一點。今年的討論大多集中在二疊紀盆地,但埃及在首都建設方面取得了長足進步。

  • So there's potential for that to continue next year on the cost side for both capital and LOE. We've got expected continued success and performance on the gas side. And then other oil projects, too, we shouldn't look past what we've been able to do in the second half of this year on the oil program and the potential for some of that to carry next year. So a number of different factors, Doug, I think, are going to offset that $60 million -- had the potential to offset that $60 million free cash flow impact in Egypt.

    因此,明年資本支出和營運支出的成本都有可能繼續上漲。天然氣業務方面,我們預計將繼續取得成功並取得良好業績。此外,其他石油項目也不容忽視,我們不應忽視今年下半年我們在石油項目上的成就,以及其中一些項目明年可能取得的進展。所以,道格,我認為有很多不同的因素將會抵消這 6000 萬美元——有可能抵消埃及 6000 萬美元的自由現金流影響。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And the only thing I'd add, Doug, you step back and think about it, removing that backlog now is a good thing financially. We've got our past dues down lowest they've been. It really underscores the investment environment we have in Egypt, just how good things are because we've been able to capture basically the PDRs and the backlog now. and shows the success in the modernization process.

    我唯一要補充的是,道格,你冷靜下來仔細想想,現在清除積壓的工作在經濟上是一件好事。我們的欠款已降至歷史最低。這充分凸顯了埃及的投資環境,也說明了情況有多好,因為我們基本上已經獲得了優先開發權和積壓訂單,這表明現代化進程取得了成功。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • And the balance sheet has seen the benefit of that, guys. Thanks very much indeed.

    資產負債表也因此受益,各位。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Freeman, Raymond James.

    約翰·弗里曼,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you. Just following up on Doug's question on 2026 capital. I appreciate all the color you are providing on the call. It seems like the other kind of lever you all have got, depending on commodity prices on the budget would be the exploration capital. And unless I missed it, I didn't hear any sort of commentary on that, just how we should think about that relative to the $65 million you're spending this year?

    早安.謝謝。我來跟進一下 Doug 關於 2026 年資本的問題。我很欣賞你在通話中提供的各種生動訊息。看來你們還有另一種可以利用的槓桿,那就是根據預算中的大宗商品價格來調整探勘資金。除非我錯過了什麼,否則我沒有聽到任何關於這方面的評論,也沒有人談到我們應該如何看待這筆支出與你們今年花費的 6500 萬美元之間的關係?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, John, I think going in, just by nature of the way the program is setting up, '26 is going to be a pretty light year exploration wise for us. We could get into building some ice roads in Alaska late next winter as you prep for what would be really more in '27 as well as timing of the Suriname potential exploration wells that could pop into late next year. But in general, '26 is likely going to be a fairly light year exploration wise for us.

    是的,約翰,我認為就目前專案設定的方式來看,2026 年對我們來說將是探索任務相對較少的一年。明年冬末,我們可以開始在阿拉斯加建造一些冰路,同時為 2027 年的更多項目做準備,以及為明年年底可能出現的蘇利南潛在勘探井的開工做準備。但總的來說,2026 年對我們來說可能是探索活動相對較少的一年。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Got it. And then my other question, obviously, you all continue to increase the realized and projected savings and also on accelerated timeline and I just look at how much progress you have made from the update with 2Q results. I'm just looking for anymore that you all could sort of give specifics on just to see that big of an improvement both on the realized savings as well as the sort of run rate targets for that much to happen since 2Q? Just any specifics I can point to drive that?

    知道了。那麼我的另一個問題是,顯然,你們都在不斷提高已實現和預計的節省額,並且加快了時間表,我只是想看看你們從第二季度業績更新以來取得了多大的進展。我只是想了解一下,你們能否具體說明一下,為什麼自第二季以來,實際節省的成本以及運行率目標都能取得如此大的進步?我能指出哪些具體細節來促成此事?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'll just say, if you step back from where we were in February and you look at the progress, two places, right? G&A, we've been able to do more than we thought. Obviously, that's something we directly control but the other place has been the capital side, and that's been driven mainly by Permian.

    是的。我只想說,如果我們回顧一下二月的情況,再看看目前的進展,就會發現有兩個地方取得了進步,對吧?一般及行政費用方面,我們取得的成績比預期的還要好。顯然,這是我們直接控制的,但另一方面是資金方面,而這主要由二疊紀盆地推動。

  • So to think where we are, we started out in February, I think we'd realize in calendar year, $25 million, $60 million and now know we're at $300 million and obviously, we set out a three-year target of the $350 million by the end of '27, to get there by the end of '25, very, very proud of the entire organization because we've just been razor-focused on what do we do on the cost side and you're seeing that show up.

    想想我們現在的處境,我們從二月開始,當時的目標可能是2500萬美元到6000萬美元,而現在我們已經達到了3億美元。顯然,我們設定了一個三年目標,在2027年底達到3.5億美元,而我們最終在2025年底就實現了這個目標。我為整個組織感到非常非常自豪,因為我們一直專注於成本控制,而你們現在也看到了成果。

  • But I'll let Ben provide a little bit of color. We've had it by year-end '26 now another $50 million to $100 million to that. But I'll let Ben jump in and give some more color.

    不過,就讓本來補充一些細節吧。到 2026 年底,我們又增加了 5,000 萬到 1 億美元。不過,我還是讓本來補充一些細節吧。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So John, when you think about what we've done this year, as you can see, huge strides made on the capital front, followed by G&A that's in both what we're capturing this year as well as in that $350 million run rate. Most of that is in capital and in G&A with some expected on the run rate on for that incremental $50 million to $100 million, actually the bulk of that is going to come from G&A and LOE.

    當然。所以約翰,當你回顧我們今年所做的工作時,正如你所看到的,我們在資本方面取得了巨大的進步,其次是 G&A,這體現在我們今年的收入以及 3.5 億美元的運行率上。其中大部分是資本支出和一般及行政費用,預計新增的 5,000 萬至 1 億美元支出將以正常營運率計算,實際上大部分將來自一般及行政費用和營運支出。

  • I think capital is going to contribute some but because capital contributed to so much in 2025, as you look to that $50 million to $100 million incremental by the end of next year, a lot of that's going to come on G&A initiatives as well as on the LOE front.

    我認為資本會做出一些貢獻,但由於資本在 2025 年貢獻巨大,展望明年年底新增的 5,000 萬至 1 億美元,其中很大一部分將用於一般及行政開支項目以及營運支出方面。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Thanks guys. Well done.

    謝謝各位。做得好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

    Scott Hanold,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I'm interesting in Egypt Gas, obviously, it's going well for you all. And I think you're running, if I'm not mistaken, around 8 rigs on the gas side, and just with respect to the new terms that you have on the gas pricing, is there any unconstrained level on gas growth? And could you give us some sense of where you think gas production could go here over the next, say, year or two?

    嗯,謝謝。早安.顯然,我對埃及天然氣公司很感興趣,希望你們一切順利。如果我沒記錯的話,你們在天然氣方面大約有 8 台鑽機,就你們新的天然氣定價條款而言,天然氣增長是否有任何不受限制的水平?您能否大致預測一下未來一兩年內這裡的天然氣產量會如何變化?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Scott, I mean, if you step back and look where we are, we're actually running 12 rigs in Egypt and three of them right now are on gas. So instead of 8. So just 1/4 of the program, but if you look at where we are and you go back, I mean, we signed this contract a year ago. And so to look at the progress and just see where we are we've exceeded all of our internal expectations, and it's been really the success of the program, the delivery of the wells.

    是的。史考特,我的意思是,如果你退後一步看看我們現在的情況,我們實際上在埃及經營 12 個鑽井平台,其中 3 個目前正在使用天然氣。所以不是8。所以這只是整個專案的四分之一,但如果你看看我們現在所處的位置,再回顧一下,我的意思是,我們一年前就簽了這份合約。因此,從進展來看,我們已經超越了所有內部預期,這確實是該計劃的成功,也是油井交付的成功。

  • And most importantly, the ability to get things tied in and not back out some lower pressure gas. So the team has done a phenomenal job. We're going to continue on this trend well into next year. Longer term, it's going to be dictated by the success of the exploration program. And that's something we really -- we've been exploring for oil in the Western Desert for three decades.

    最重要的是,能夠把東西連接起來,而不是漏掉一些低壓氣體。所以團隊做得非常出色。我們將繼續保持這一趨勢,直至明年。從長遠來看,這將取決於勘探計劃的成功與否。而這正是我們一直在做的事——我們已經在西部沙漠勘探石油三十年了。

  • We've now been exploring for gas for really one year and kind of just getting started on the exploration side. So a lot of that's going to hinge on our exploration program, but we've got good momentum. We're going to grow year-over-year on gas. And we do have processing capacity that we might need to pipe into depending on where we have success. But we're really just getting started, and we're excited long term about the gas potential.

    我們勘探天然氣至今已有一年,勘探工作才剛起步。所以很多事情都將取決於我們的勘探計劃,但我們目前勢頭良好。我們將實現天然氣業務的逐年成長。我們確實擁有一定的處理能力,根據我們所取得的成功情況,我們可能需要將其投入使用。但我們才剛起步,我們對天然氣的長期潛力感到興奮。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Yes. But specifically, I think your agreement on the pricing is basically everything over above predetermined PDP. And I'm just kind of curious, is there any upper limit to that? Or is it all premium priced over and above that going forward?

    是的。但具體來說,我認為你們在定價方面的協議基本上是指超出預定 PDP 範圍的所有內容。我只是有點好奇,這方面有沒有上限?或者說,今後所有產品的價格都會在此基礎上增加溢價?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Everything that we bring on new gas gets new gas price. And so I mean, even if we were just a whole gas flat, our gas price is going to grow is that the old PDP decline curve kicks in. So we're sitting in a good place price-wise. And quite frankly, we're excited about the inventory, but we just need to drill some exploration wells.

    所有新引進的天然氣都將採用新的天然氣價格。所以我的意思是,即使我們只是完全保持天然氣價格平穩,我們的天然氣價格也會上漲,因為舊的PDP下降曲線開始發揮作用。所以從價格角度來看,我們處於有利地位。坦白說,我們對目前的儲量感到興奮,但我們還需要鑽一些勘探井。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Got it. And then if I could turn to a question on the Permian. I think you all are working on inventory update assessment, hopefully, by early next year. Can you give us a sense of like what are you thinking as well about some of the deeper potential. There's been a number of like Barnett and Woodford being targeted by some of your peers in the Midland. Is there a good amount of overlap with that with you all?

    知道了。然後,如果可以的話,我想問一個關於二疊紀的問題。我認為你們都在進行庫存更新評估工作,希望明年年初就能完成。您能否也談談您對一些更深層潛力的看法?像巴內特和伍德福德這樣的一些地方,已經成為米德蘭地區一些同行攻擊的目標。你們這邊的情況和你們有很多重合之處嗎?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I mean if you step back, I mean, we were drilling Barnett and Woodford wells back as early as 2016, 2017, right? So I mean, we've got a good view on that. There is overlap into our positions. The plan at this point, as we've said, when we've done an updated characterization and Steve can add some color on all the nuances as we -- it becomes a very iterative process.

    是的。我的意思是,如果你回顧一下,我們早在 2016 年、2017 年就開始鑽探 Barnett 和 Woodford 油井了,對吧?所以我的意思是,我們對此有很清楚的認知。我們的立場存在重疊之處。正如我們所說,目前的計劃是,當我們完成更新的角色描述,史蒂夫可以添加一些細節來豐富所有細微之處時——這將成為一個反覆迭代的過程。

  • But I mean we are planning to come back to the market first quarter of '26 with an update. But today, we strongly believe in terms of core development opportunity, in development inventory, consistent with what we're drilling today and into the next several years, we can do that well into the early 2030s.

    但我的意思是,我們計劃在 2026 年第一季帶著更新資訊重返市場。但就核心開發機會和開發儲量而言,我們今天以及未來幾年正在鑽探的油氣資源,我們堅信,我們可以持續到 2030 年代初期。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. With the significant capital efficiency gains that we've been able to capture this year in the Permian. That's obviously having an iterative effect, as John would say, on the quantum of inventory, and it's really requiring us to go back. We came into the year kind of rethinking a bit about our spacing and frac size philosophy -- and with the efficiency gains that just causes us to rethink all of that all over again.

    是的。今年我們在二疊紀盆地獲得了顯著的資本效率提升。正如約翰所說,這顯然會對庫存產生連鎖反應,而且確實需要我們重新審視這個問題。今年年初,我們對井距和壓裂尺寸的概念進行了一些重新思考——而效率的提高又促使我們再次重新思考所有這些。

  • And so we're coming through every bit of our inventory. So it's not just a case of looking at what's in addition to what we already know, we're also going back and relooking and re-examining everything that we had in inventory to begin with and also all of the Callon acreage as well and other acreage that we've acquired over the years.

    所以,我們正在逐一清點庫存。所以,這不僅僅是查看我們已知資訊之外的其他信息,我們還要回顧和重新審視我們最初的所有庫存,以及卡隆的所有土地和我們多年來收購的其他土地。

  • So every single undrilled landing zone and even new potential landing zones are being reviewed pretty extensively because of the significant efficiency gains, the lower you can drill and complete a well cost wise, the more resource you can access. And that's a really important aspect of the quantum of inventory. So there's a huge amount of work going on around that.

    因此,每一個未鑽探的著陸區,甚至是新的潛在著陸區,都正在接受相當廣泛的審查,因為效率的提高非常顯著,鑽井和完井的成本越低,就能獲取的資源就越多。這是庫存數量一個非常重要的方面。所以圍繞這方面有很多工作正在進行。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Thank you for that.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Scialla, Stephens.

    Michael Scialla,史蒂芬斯。

  • Michael Scialla - Analyst

    Michael Scialla - Analyst

  • Good morning. John, it sounds like you're fairly cautious on the oil macro, like a lot of your peers. I want to get your thoughts on the dynamics there. And you mentioned you're hedging more gas just want to get your updated thoughts on potentially hedging oil.

    早安.約翰,聽起來你和很多同行一樣,對石油宏觀經濟狀況相當謹慎。我想聽聽你對那裡情況的看法。您提到您正在對沖更多天然氣,我想了解您對沖石油的最新想法。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I just think, Mike, going in with all the progress we've made on the cost structure. And clearly, we've got a WTI price has been sitting around $60, it's prudent to be cautious. And so we're going into '26 with a disciplined mindset. And like always, we've set ourselves up with the improvements in the controllable spend and the cost structure and the balance sheet we're in a really, really good place.

    是的。我覺得,麥克,考慮到我們在成本結構方面取得的所有進展。顯然,WTI原油價格一直徘徊在每桶60美元左右,謹慎行事是明智的。因此,我們將以嚴謹的心態迎接2026年。和以往一樣,我們透過改善可控支出、成本結構和資產負債表,為自己創造了非常非常好的條件。

  • And the last thing you want to be trying to do is accelerate inventory into an oil market like we sit in today. So in terms of the hedging, not really hedging gas, Ben can jump in at some of the transport and locking in some of those gains there, but I'll let Ben make a few comments on the gas transport hedges.

    而你最不希望看到的就是在像今天這樣的石油市場中加速庫存成長。所以就避險而言,其實不是對沖天然氣,Ben 可以參與一些運輸避險,鎖定一些收益,但我還是讓 Ben 來對天然氣運輸避險發表一些看法吧。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Yes. So we -- just like we did this year, looking to lock in cash flow associated with Waha to Houston Ship Channel in Waha to NYMEX Henry Hub differential carried that through into next year. As you know, there's a contango curve on the NYMEX side, but still a pretty wide differential between both Ship Channel and Henry Hub and Waha. And so locking that in gives us surety of cash. We've only got one-third of it hedged right now. So should that continue to widen, we would make it on the unhedged volumes.

    當然。是的。所以,就像我們今年所做的那樣,我們試圖鎖定與瓦哈到休士頓航道相關的現金流,並將瓦哈到紐約商品交易所亨利樞紐的差價延續到明年。如您所知,紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 一側存在期貨溢價曲線,但 Ship Channel 和 Henry Hub 與 Waha 之間仍然存在相當大的價差。因此,鎖定這筆資金可以確保我們的現金流。我們目前只對其中三分之一進行了避險。所以如果這種情況繼續擴大,我們將從未對沖的交易量中獲利。

  • But just getting that certainty of a certain amount of cash flow is we thought was prudent. We did it this year. And when you compare that to hedging on the oil side and either a flat to backward dated market, just felt like more prudent to capture cash flow for the corporation on the transport side versus on the crude side when we've got a lot more optionality in our portfolio to manage versus locking in any type of oil hedges. But should the opportunity come up on the oil side, we could do that just more opportunistic on the gas side.

    但我們認為,確保獲得一定數量的現金流是明智之舉。我們今年做到了。而與石油方面的避險相比,考慮到市場行情平穩甚至出現回落,我們感覺在運輸方面獲取公司現金流比在原油方面獲取現金流更為謹慎,因為我們的投資組合中有更多的選擇餘地,而不是鎖定任何類型的石油套期保值。但如果石油方面出現機會,我們也可以這樣做,就像我們在天然氣方面那樣更具機會主義精神。

  • Michael Scialla - Analyst

    Michael Scialla - Analyst

  • Makes sense. Appreciate that detail. I think you said last quarter, your breakeven now in the Delaware is kind of in the low 50s that where you would kind of pull the trigger and pull back on Permian activity? What would that look like? Would you just build DUCs through that? Or would you actually drop rigs?

    有道理。我很欣賞這個細節。我想你上個季度說過,你在特拉華州的盈虧平衡點現在大概在 50 美元左右,那時你就會決定停止在二疊紀盆地的活動?那會是什麼樣子呢?你會透過這種方式建造DUC嗎?或者你真的會丟棄鑽井平台嗎?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think a lot of it -- we've got a lot of flexibility, Mike. It will just depend on where we found ourselves, right? I mean if you look at Delaware breakevens, yes, low 50s, Midlands in the mid to low 30s. So a lot of that would just hinge on where we found ourselves and what we thought made the most sense. But the key message there is lots of flexibility in terms of with the program.

    我覺得很大程度上——我們有很多靈活性,麥克。這完全取決於我們身處何地,對吧?我的意思是,如果你看看特拉華州的盈虧平衡點,是的,在 50 美元左右,米德蘭茲地區的盈虧平衡點在 30 美元左右。所以很多時候,這取決於我們所處的境地以及我們認為最合理的做法。但其中的關鍵訊息是,該計劃具有很大的靈活性。

  • Michael Scialla - Analyst

    Michael Scialla - Analyst

  • So you could actually potentially -- is there room for you to move rigs if prices did go there, that you would move them over to the Midland and kind of positive?

    所以實際上,如果價格真的漲到那個水平,你是否有空間轉移鑽井平台,例如把它們轉移到米德蘭,這算是一種積極的信號?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • More drop if needed be, right? Yes, move more drop.

    如果需要的話,再加點水,對吧?是的,再往下移一些。

  • Michael Scialla - Analyst

    Michael Scialla - Analyst

  • Got you. Thanks guys.

    抓到你了。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

    查爾斯·米德,約翰遜·賴斯。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Good morning, John, to you and your whole team there.

    約翰,早安,也祝你和你的整個團隊早安。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Charles.

    早上好,查爾斯。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • I want to go back to Egypt, if I may. The 2 million acres that you guys picked up most recently, I think I heard you say in your prepared comments, you're actually drilling some exploratory wells on that new position. But could you add to the picture about what's available on these 2 million acres? And I'm thinking how much of it do you have seismic over?

    如果可以的話,我想回埃及。我記得你們在事先準備好的發言稿中提到,你們最近收購的200萬英畝土地,實際上正在這片新土地上鑽探一些勘探井。您能否補充這 200 萬英畝土地上有哪些可供開發的資源?我在想,你們對其中多少區域進行了地震勘探?

  • How much of their other more simple things like how much do you have road access to midstream, that sort of thing? And all with the name of when that's going to start to be able to work into your capital budget and delivery for you guys?

    他們還有哪些更簡單的問題,例如通往河中游的道路通行狀況等等?這一切都是為了弄清楚,什麼時候才能把這些納入你們的資本預算和交付計畫?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it's a great question. I mean if you look back in the -- we've shown that 2 million acres sits kind of across a lot of the desert and it fits in nicely with our existing footprint. So we do have access to it. It can be tied into infrastructure for the most part. I would say there is both oil and gas prospectivity and we're kind of already getting after that.

    不,這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是,如果你回顧一下——我們已經證明,200萬英畝的土地橫跨大部分沙漠,這與我們現有的佈局非常契合。所以我們確實可以獲得它。它在很大程度上可以與基礎設施連結起來。我認為這裡既有石油又有天然氣的勘探前景,而且我們已經在著手勘探了。

  • So we're very excited about it. I think there's some low-hanging fruit on that acreage that we're getting after. A lot of it is just going to hinge on Charles, what we find and where it is and then what do we need to do to tie it in. Some of it, we might need to build some jumper lines or things to facilities but not all of it.

    所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為在我們即將獲得的這片土地上,有一些很容易實現的目標。很多事情都取決於查爾斯,取決於我們能找到什麼,它在哪裡,以及我們需要做什麼才能把它連結起來。有些地方我們可能需要搭建一些連接線路或其他設施,但並非所有地方都需要。

  • A lot of it is pretty short arms reach away from our existing operations. So it fits nicely I'd say it's highly prospective, and we're getting after it and look forward to updating in the future. Anything you want to add to it?

    很多地方距離我們現有的營運地點都很近。所以我覺得它很合適,很有發展前景,我們正在努力推進,期待未來能有更新。你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. I think we've actually published a map of that of the old acreage with the new acreage on the same map with the infrastructure overlaying that. And I think if you -- I think that might have been in the second quarter supplement, even. So if you take a look at that, you'll see the -- two things. Number one is that the acreage is actually -- it's not like one big chunk of acreage.

    是的。我認為我們已經發布了一張地圖,將舊土地面積和新土地面積以及基礎設施疊加在同一張地圖上。而且我認為如果你——我認為那甚至可能在第二季度的補充文件中。所以如果你仔細看看,你會發現──兩件事。第一點是,這塊地其實是──它不是一大塊地。

  • It's spread out all over the place. And there's some acreage in there that I would say I would kind of classify that as just a simple step-out type of stuff relative to what we're doing on the acreage right next door. And then -- and it ranges all the way to some chunks of acreage that is even new play concepts that we're looking at.

    它遍布各地。而且那裡還有一些地塊,我會說,相對於我們在隔壁地塊上所做的工作而言,這可以算是簡單的拓展工作。然後——甚至包括我們正在研究的一些新的開發概念的大片土地。

  • And so the exploration that's going to go through all of that acreage is going to span the full span of the full range of types of exploration from kind of lower risk step out to kind of new concept play opening. The other thing is that you'll see that there's not there's not much of a gap anywhere in that acreage from nearby infrastructure or nearby activity, except for a very few places, there's current Apache activity going on near all of that acreage.

    因此,將在所有這些區域進行的勘探將涵蓋所有類型的勘探,從風險較低的試探性勘探到新概念勘探的開發。另外,你會發現,除了極少數地方外,這片區域幾乎沒有與附近基礎設施或附近活動有任何空隙,目前阿帕奇武裝分子在這片區域附近都有活動。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you for that color. And then for the follow-up, still on Egypt Gas on slide 3, you guys have a bullet point saying that with the new pricing arrangement, that gas development is at parity with mid-cycle Brent. I wonder if you could just elaborate a little bit more on what the assumptions are there. I mean what mid-cycle Brent, what's your assumption there is and also what the -- what parity means, whether that's IRR or what else goes into that statement?

    知道了。謝謝你提供的這種顏色。然後,關於埃及天然氣的後續問題,在第 3 張投影片中,你們有一個要點指出,在新定價安排下,天然氣開發與週期中期的布蘭特原油價格持平。我想請您再詳細解釋一下其中的假設是什麼。我的意思是,對於週期中期的布蘭特原油,你們的假設是什麼?還有,平價是什麼意思?是指內部報酬率(IRR)還是指其他因素?

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. So what we have is an arrangement, we sell all of our -- the gas that we produce to Egypt and we have a fixed price on this new tranche of gas. We have a fixed price on the old tranche of gas. We have a fixed higher price on the new tranches of gas. And the way that, that will work is that you end up getting a mix of different of price as you go forward as the PDP declines on the old price of gas and new volumes come on, you get a rising price as you go through time.

    是的。所以我們達成了一項協議,我們將我們生產的所有天然氣都賣給埃及,並且我們對這批新天然氣實施了固定價格。我們對舊一批天然氣實施固定價格。新一批天然氣的價格固定且較高。這樣做的原理是,隨著時間的推移,你會得到不同的價格組合:隨著 PDP 下降,舊天然氣價格下降,而新天然氣供應增加,隨著時間的推移,價格會上漲。

  • The mid-cycle -- so with that price -- sorry, with the -- on the new volumes with that new price, gas is effectively equivalent to a $75 to $80 Brent price on oil drilling in Permian -- I mean, in Egypt. So you've got -- you can drill for gas that's equivalent at a fixed price that's equivalent to $75 to $80 Brent oil on acreage that would be right next door or nearby where we could drill oil wells.

    中期週期——所以按照這個價格——抱歉,是按照——按照這個新價格的新產量,天然氣實際上相當於埃及二疊紀盆地石油鑽探的布倫特原油價格為每桶 75 至 80 美元。所以,你可以以固定價格開採相當於每桶 75 至 80 美元布倫特原油的天然氣,開採的土地就在我們能夠鑽探油井的隔壁或附近。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We included infrastructure.

    我們納入了基礎設施建設。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. We included the potential for new infrastructure requirements in that analysis.

    是的。我們在分析中考慮了可能出現的新基礎設施需求。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Understood that is great detail. Thank you.

    明白了,這真是非常細緻。謝謝。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Charles.

    謝謝你,查爾斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

    David Deckelbaum,TD Cowen。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the time and for taking my questions. John or Ben, curious when you talked about the program for '26 and holding 120,000 barrels a day flat with 5 rigs, are you still -- are you assuming any incremental benefits on D&C costs and ask that in the context of you guys have made some significant headway. Is there any reason why you can't have a D&C target sort of that rivals the best peers in the Delaware for next year?

    感謝您抽空回答我的問題。John 或 Ben,我很好奇,當你們談到 2026 年的計劃,以及用 5 台鑽機每天處理 12 萬桶原油時,你們現在是否仍然認為 D&C 成本會有任何增量收益?請結合你們已經取得的一些重大進展來回答這個問題。有什麼理由不能讓你制定一個與德拉瓦州最佳同行相媲美的D&C目標,作為明年的目標呢?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think we're making great progress. And if you look, part of the carry-through into '26 is the savings that we think are real in the progress we're making. So as Ben said, we're going to add another $50 million to $100 million of savings in '26. Some of that's going to be on capital. But I'll let Steve jump in a little bit in terms of the progress we're making on the capital side and where we think we sit.

    我認為我們取得了巨大進展。而且,如果你仔細觀察,你會發現,延續到 2026 年的部分成果是我們認為在取得的進展中真正實現的節約。如本所說,我們將在 2026 年再節省 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。其中一些將用於資本支出。但關於我們在資金方面取得的進展以及我們認為我們所處的位置,我想讓史蒂夫稍微補充一下。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. I would say -- and I think we said this on the second quarter earnings call. In the Midland Basin, we feel like, in many ways, we're getting to be pretty close to best-in-class on the drilling and completion side. In the Delaware Basin, we're probably around peer average. And so there's still room to go there.

    是的。我想說——而且我認為我們在第二季財報電話會議上也說過這一點。在米德蘭盆地,我們感覺在鑽井和完井方面,我們在許多方面都接近一流水平。在特拉華盆地,我們大概處於同業平均。所以,這方面還有發展空間。

  • So just in terms of reconciling the 5 rigs holding volumes flat relative to 2025, 120,000 barrels of oil a day -- there are some things that are benefiting us being able to go to 5 rigs. We're not saying that we've said in the past that 6 rigs will hold Permian relatively flat around 120.

    所以,就 5 個鑽井平台保持產量與 2025 年的目標持平(每天 12 萬桶石油)而言——有一些因素對我們能夠擁有 5 個鑽井平台是有利的。我們並不是說我們過去說過 6 個鑽井平台就能讓二疊紀盆地油價維持在 120 左右。

  • We're not saying that's 5 now. We still believe that's probably closer to 6% at this point in time. But there are some things that are benefiting us in 2026, where we've made some good strides recently around base uptime, base volume uptime, kind of reducing the underlying decline rate a bit, which will help as we roll into 2026.

    我們並不是說現在是5。我們仍然認為,目前來看,這個比例可能更接近 6%。但有些事情對我們2026年來說是有利的,我們最近在基礎正常運行時間和基礎容量正常運行時間方面取得了一些不錯的進展,稍微降低了潛在的下降率,這將有助於我們邁入2026年。

  • There are some -- there are some facilities where we're facility constrained now. So we've brought on wells. The wells are actually constrained a bit in their producibility and that will resolve itself as we go into 2026. That helps a bit. There is a small reduction in DUC count. It's about 5. So we'll exit right now based on current planning with about five less DUCs, fewer DUCs than we enter '26 with, not a significant amount, but just being transparent, there is a slight reduction in DUC count.

    有些設施—有些設施我們現在面臨設施不足的問題。所以我們引進了水井。這些油井的產能實際上受到了一些限制,但隨著我們進入 2026 年,這種情況將會得到解決。那有點幫助。DUC數量略有減少。大約5點。因此,根據目前的計劃,我們現在將退出,屆時DUC數量將比2026年進入時少大約5個,數量不多,但為了坦誠起見,DUC數量略有減少。

  • And with all of that, our development -- our development capital in the Permian this year on a like-for-like basis, eliminating stuff that we've sold. It's about $1.45 billion next year, that will be $1.3 billion. The $1.45 billion actually includes about $200 million of savings that we've talked about that we actually captured in the current year in 2025. And so there's another $150 million of savings as we roll through 2026.

    綜上所述,我們今年在二疊紀盆地的發展——我們的開發資本,以同等條件計算,剔除了我們已經出售的部分。明年大約是 14.5 億美元,也就是 13 億美元。這 14.5 億美元實際上包括了我們之前討論過的約 2 億美元的節省,這些節省實際上在 2025 年就已經實現了。因此,到 2026 年,我們還能再省下 1.5 億美元。

  • That does benefits from kind of the run rate of what we've done so far. It does have some additional savings planned in there as we go forward. Much of that would probably come in the Delaware Basin versus the Midland Basin, but we still believe there's room to run in the Midland Basin as well. And that does include running 5 rigs instead of -- and we're down to 5 rigs today, but we had been running 6 earlier. So that includes all of that.

    這確實得益於我們目前為止所取得的進展。隨著專案的推進,我們計劃增加一些額外的節省措施。其中大部分成長可能發生在特拉華盆地而不是米德蘭盆地,但我們仍然認為米德蘭盆地也有成長空間。這確實包括運行 5 台鑽機而不是——我們今天確實只運行了 5 台鑽機,但之前我們運行的是 6 台。所以這包括了所有這些內容。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • I appreciate all the additional color, Steve. My follow-up is just on the North Sea. I think you guys highlighted the tax benefits, in particular, in '26. I guess as you -- are you accelerating the ARO activity in the North Sea? And what are the, I guess, results or consequences as you see on the production side of that asset over the next couple of years?

    史蒂夫,我很喜歡這些額外的色彩。我的後續研究只關注北海。我認為你們特別強調了 2026 年的稅收優惠。我想你也是一樣──你是否正在加快北海的ARO活動?那麼,在未來幾年內,您認為該資產的生產面會產生哪些結果或後果呢?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So on the production side, just like we mentioned earlier this year with little to no investment in the asset, which was expected after all the different changes through the government there. We'll expect production to continue to decline from '25 into '26. I think we'd said 15% to 20%. And so that's probably a reasonable assumption from a production standpoint.

    是的。所以在生產方面,正如我們今年早些時候提到的那樣,該資產幾乎沒有投資,這在當地政府經歷了各種變化之後也是意料之中的。我們預計2025年至2026年產量將持續下降。我想我們之前說過是 15% 到 20%。所以從生產的角度來看,這可能是個合理的假設。

  • But on the tax side, a lot of that is price dependent, depending on if there's taxable income in the UK, but there will be tax savings because of the increase in the ARO spend that we have next year, again, because the government pays 40% of that ARO. And so we've talked about that before in terms of the increasing profile when we announced COP last year and so that will increase next year.

    但在稅收方面,許多因素取決於價格,取決於英國是否有應稅收入,但由於明年 ARO 支出增加,將會有稅收節省,因為政府支付了 ARO 的 40%。所以,我們之前就討論過這個問題,例如去年我們宣布召開氣候大會時,氣候大會的關注度就會不斷提高,明年這種關注度還會繼續提高。

  • But again, the cash flow impact of all ARO and decom spend year-over-year after-tax cash flow impact is only $55 million, so very manageable. When you look at the total corporate profile from everything else that we have going on there. So all in all, there's the taxable net income from the UK is price dependent, but there's going to be savings from ARO spend.

    但同樣,所有 ARO 和退役支出對年度稅後現金流的影響僅為 5,500 萬美元,因此完全可控。當你從我們在那裡進行的所有工作來看,你會發現我們公司的整體狀況。總而言之,來自英國的應稅淨收入取決於價格,但 ARO 支出會帶來節省。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. And we are -- just to be really clear, we are not accelerating activity in 2026. We've had this plan for quite some time. It's primarily a well abandonment program with Beryl Bravo and initiating a subsea well abandonment program as well that will run for several years. So not an acceleration of any activity.

    是的。需要明確的是,我們不會加快 2026 年的活動。我們這個計畫已經醞釀很久了。主要是與 Beryl Bravo 合作的油井封堵計劃,同時也將啟動海底油井封堵計劃,該計劃將持續數年。所以,這並非任何活動的加速。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • Thank you, guys.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang, Barclays.

    Betty Jiang,巴克萊銀行。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask about non-DNC CapEx. Ben, you talked about repurposing some of the CapEx savings this year into infrastructure investment and LOE reduction initiatives. Are there other opportunities along that line? And how should we be thinking about the benefit of these investments?

    早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想詢問一下非民主黨全國委員會的資本支出狀況。Ben,你曾提到今年將部分資本支出節省用於基礎建設投資和降低營運成本的措施。還有其他相關的機會嗎?那我們該如何看待這些投資的益處呢?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So for this year, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the $60 million difference between captured savings and our capital guidance. Roughly one-third of that was investment in these LOE projects that we started this year, that we do expect that to continue into next year as we identified different opportunities. And again, most of it's around facilities and compression and other items that I've mentioned before.

    當然。因此,我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,今年的節約金額與我們的資本指引之間存在 6,000 萬美元的差距。其中大約三分之一是對我們今年啟動的這些 LOE 項目的投資,我們預計明年將繼續進行,因為我們發現了不同的機會。而且,大部分內容都與設施、壓縮以及我之前提到的其他事項有關。

  • And we will continue to invest capital into those projects that will have ongoing LOE savings. So it's not a big capital number when you think of -- Steve mentioned the $1.45 billion for Permian this year and the $1.3 billion next year if you're talking $20 million on that $1.3 billion base, it's not a big piece, but it does help us on LOE.

    我們將繼續投資那些能夠持續節省營運成本的項目。所以,考慮到史蒂夫提到的二疊紀盆地今年的14.5億美元和明年的13億美元,這筆資金金額並不大。如果你說的是在這13億美元的基礎上增加2000萬美元,那雖然不多,但確實有助於我們減少支出。

  • I will say that the teams are working across all different aspects within LOE, not just trying to find ways to lower it through capital investment, but through really all different areas that make up our operating expenses there in the field, and that's not also just in the Permian. Clearly, we've done it this year in the North Sea and in Egypt as well. So there's -- not going to outline a per barrel metric for that for the savings, but do expect savings and they'll be staggered throughout '26 and into '27 as well.

    我想說的是,各個團隊正在努力降低營運成本的各個方面,不僅試圖透過資本投資來降低成本,而且還試圖降低構成我們在現場營運成本的各個不同領域的成本,而且這不僅發生在二疊紀盆地。顯然,我們今年在北海和埃及都做到了這一點。所以——我不會具體說明每桶油的節省金額,但可以預見的是,節省金額將在 2026 年和 2027 年分階段實現。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • Yes. If I could just add a bit to that. Obviously, on LOE for 2025, we didn't capture the savings that we had hoped to capture this year at the corporate level. But there's some real success underneath that, that I think is worth mentioning. Most of the struggle has actually been in the Permian and that's where most of the investment that Ben is talking about around consolidating compression and rationalizing that and around produced water disposal wells and things like that.

    是的。如果我能再補充一點就好了。顯然,在 2025 年的 LOE 方面,我們並沒有像今年希望的那樣在公司層級實現節省。但背後確實取得了一些值得一提的成功。實際上,大部分困難都集中在二疊紀盆地,而本所說的大部分投資也都集中在二疊紀盆地,包括整合壓縮設施、合理化壓縮設施以及處理採出水井等等。

  • That's going to be targeting LOE primarily, not entirely, but primarily in the Permian Basin. And those are investments that we're going to be beginning this year. There will be more in next year and you'll see the benefit of those probably showing up in the second half of next year. But I did want to highlight, in particular, the North Sea significant progress in reducing offshore operating costs this year, and that's kind of hidden in what's going on in LOE and some very good progress in Egypt as well without any meaningful amount of capital spend.

    目標主要是 LOE,但不完全是,但主要集中在二疊紀盆地。這些都是我們今年即將開始的投資項目。明年還會有更多,你可能會在明年下半年看到這些措施帶來的好處。但我特別想強調的是,北海今年在降低海上作業成本方面取得了顯著進展,而這在某種程度上被LOE的現狀所掩蓋;埃及在沒有進行任何實質性資本支出的情況下也取得了非常好的進展。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Got it. No, that's really helpful color. My follow-up is on -- back on the ARO. Is -- so that $50 million delta would imply roughly the headline, ARO is up close to $100 million? It is -- does seem a bit higher than where we were thinking for 2026? So can you just speak to how are we tracking on ARO spend just over the next several years? Should we be holding at that level in North Sea beyond 2026?

    知道了。不,這顏色真的很有幫助。我的後續工作正在進行中——回到 ARO。也就是說,5000萬美元的差額大致意味著,ARO接近1億美元?確實——似乎比我們之前預想的 2026 年的目標要高一些?那麼,您能否談談未來幾年我們在ARO支出的進展?2026 年以後,我們是否應該將北海油價維持在目前的水準?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So for -- we'll probably wait, Betty, for a multiyear outlook and do that at some point next year, most likely in the first quarter if we do a portfolio update. We've talked about the ramp of the ARO, particularly in the North Sea. And so -- and we also talked about this year that the Gulf of America was going to be higher than prior years and also higher than what we expect moving forward.

    是的。所以,貝蒂,我們可能會等到多年展望期出來後再做決定,大概會在明年某個時候,如果我們進行投資組合更新的話,很可能是在第一季。我們已經討論過 ARO 的斜坡,尤其是在北海地區。所以——而且我們今年也談到,美洲灣的潮位將高於往年,也將高於我們未來預期的潮位。

  • So the moving pieces for next year is that you see Gulf of America come down pretty significantly back to the kind of $100 million, $120 million range, which is typical for the legacy assets that the non-op assets that we own as well as the old Fieldwood assets. So that normalizes and I would expect that to stay pretty steady even after '26.

    因此,明年的變數在於,美國海灣的資產規模將大幅下降至 1 億美元至 1.2 億美元左右,這對於我們擁有的非營運資產以及舊的 Fieldwood 資產等傳統資產而言是典型的。所以這種情況會逐漸正常化,我預計即使在 2026 年之後,這種情況也會保持相當穩定。

  • And then for the shape of the North Sea it really -- I'll just go back to what Steve said originally when we outlined that. Starting in '25, it was pretty de minimis. It was about $30 million this year. But that grows about $600 million of our after-tax ARO is between now and 2030 and then the other $600 million is between 2031 and ramps down to 2038.

    至於北海的形狀,我還是回到史蒂夫最初在我們概述時所說的內容。從 1925 年開始,這幾乎微不足道。今年大約是3000萬美元。但其中約 6 億美元稅後 ARO 將在 2030 年至 2030 年間成長,另外 6 億美元將在 2031 年至 2038 年間逐漸減少。

  • So we'll provide more details potentially about what '27 and '28 are but that increase next year, you're right. So about -- in the high 100s this year, so it'd be kind of in the mid- to high 200s next year. But it just shouldn't go without saying that the after-tax impact to us is only $55 million.

    所以,我們可能會提供更多關於 '27' 和 '28' 的細節,但明年的成長,你說得對。所以今年大概在100多度,那麼明年應該會在200多度到250多度之間。但毋庸置疑,稅後對我們的影響只有 5,500 萬美元。

  • Stephen Riney - President

    Stephen Riney - President

  • I just -- Ben commented on some -- an outline of the shape of ARO spend in the North Sea that I talked about on an earlier earnings call. That outline -- that shape of spend starting in 2026 and going into the 2030s, that shape has not changed. It's still basically the same it grows to 2030 peaks around there and then it starts declining. Mostly well abandonment in the first half of that, and facility platform and subsea infrastructure in the back half, mostly.

    我剛才——本評論了一些——我在之前的財報電話會議上談到的北海 ARO 支出概況。從 2026 年開始到 2030 年代,支出輪廓——支出模式——並沒有改變。基本情況仍然一樣,到 2030 年左右達到峰值,然後開始下降。前半年主要是油井廢棄,後半年主要是設施平台和海底基礎設施。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Got it. Just so -- and just to confirm, that $55 million already includes the normalization of the lower (inaudible) decommissioning spend.

    知道了。正因如此——為了確認一下,5500 萬美元已經包含了較低(聽不清楚)退休支出的正常化。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • That's correct.

    沒錯。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you very much.

    知道了。非常感謝。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Betty.

    謝謝你,貝蒂。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

    Paul Cheng,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Hey guys, Ben, you said the cash tax -- US cash tax will be 0 for this year and next year. Do you have any rough idea then how that looked like in 2027 to 2030?

    嘿,夥計們,本,你說過現金稅——美國今年和明年的現金稅將為0。那麼,您對2027年至2030年的情況有什麼大致的了解嗎?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Right now, Paul, our focus has been for this year, next year, we've made significant progress on the tax front and have seen some significant savings. I think with -- when you get past 2026, because a lot of the changes this year and next year that we saw, we outlined this quarter were specific to the corporate alternative minimum tax guidelines that came out and less so with the OBBB impact that we outlined in August.

    是的。保羅,目前我們的重點是今年和明年,我們在稅務方面取得了重大進展,並節省了不少錢。我認為,到了 2026 年之後,由於今年和明年我們看到的許多變化,我們在本季度概述的,都是專門針對已出台的企業替代最低稅指導方針,而不是我們 8 月份概述的 OBBB 影響。

  • As we get into '27 and '28, there's still some guidelines that we'll need for the interpretation of the OBBB. But again, the intention of that was that we get the full benefit of IDCs and bonus depreciation and so it should take US taxes pretty close to zero. There's still some work that we're going into that with our tax team, but that's the full intention of the legislation and where we think it could lead past 26%. So we think that there's continued benefits, but what we've outlined are the benefits for just this year and next year.

    到了 2027 年和 2028 年,我們仍然需要一些指導方針來解釋 OBBB。但再次強調,這樣做的目的是為了充分利用投資資本返還和額外折舊,從而使美國稅收接近零。我們仍在與稅務團隊一起研究這方面的一些工作,但這正是該立法的全部意圖,也是我們認為它可能會將稅率提高到 26% 以上的原因。所以我們認為會有持續的好處,但我們所概述的只是今年和明年的好處。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And maybe this is for John. For Alaska, you're saying that next year is going to be pretty minimum spending. So how should we look at the program, and you have the Sockeye discovery, and you guys seem like you have very big -- maybe pretty optimistic on that.

    好的。偉大的。或許這是給約翰的。對阿拉斯加來說,你的意思是說明年的開銷將會非常少。那我們該如何看待這個項目呢?你們發現了紅鮭魚,而且你們似乎對此非常樂觀。

  • So what's the game plan that -- how should we look at over the next two or three years? And when that we will see maybe a little bit more data out? Or are there more news about what the development may look like if that's one?

    那麼,未來兩三年我們的發展計畫是什麼?我們該如何看待這個問題?到那時,我們或許就能看到更多數據了?或者,如果真是那樣的話,關於該開發案可能的發展方向,還有更多消息嗎?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It's a good question. And what we said, Paul, was we're in the process right now, literally of reprocessing multiple surveys to come back with what is the next steps in terms of appraisal at Sockeye and exploration. So right now, we're doing technical work. The teams are working away and we're reprocessing the seismic.

    是的。這是個好問題。保羅,我們當時說的是,我們現在正在重新處理多項調查,以便確定 Sockeye 的評估和勘探的下一步步驟。所以現在,我們正在進行技術方面的工作。各團隊正在努力工作,我們正在重新處理地震資料。

  • We've got two really nice discoveries, and we're kind of stitching together a lot of the seismic surveys, so we can come back with the next step. So we'll come back at some point. But right now, we just said actually next year, there won't be any winter drilling this year.

    我們有兩項非常好的發現,我們正在整合大量的地震勘測數據,以便進行下一步工作。所以我們會在某個時候回來。但現在,我們剛剛宣布,明年將不會進行任何冬季鑽探。

  • Obviously, we'd be getting ready for that now. But it will likely be next winter, which is why late next year, we're likely to be building some ice roads as we bring a rig back. But we'll update you once we've kind of worked through what are the next steps in terms of appraisal and exploration, but we are excited about Alaska.

    顯然,我們現在就應該為此做好準備。但很可能要等到明年冬天,所以明年年底,我們可能會建造一些冰路,同時把鑽孔機運回來。但是,一旦我們理清了評估和勘探的下一步步驟,我們會及時通知您,但我們對阿拉斯加充滿期待。

  • Paul Cheng - Analyst

    Paul Cheng - Analyst

  • Okay, very good. Thank you.

    好的,很好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani, ROTH.

    Leo Mariani,ROTH。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Just on the exploration front, it sounds like not a lot of capital next year. Can you give us kind of an update on Uruguay? And then also just curious on the decision to bring some DUCs on in Alpine High and what seems like a bit of a challenge to Waha market here at late.

    單就勘探方面而言,明年似乎不會有很多資金投入。能否為我們介紹一下烏拉圭的最新情況?另外,我還很好奇在 Alpine High 引進一些 DUC 的決定,以及 Waha 市場最近似乎面臨的一些挑戰。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So just two things, Leo. Number one, in Uruguay, we actually have a data room open. We've been showing that externally. There's been a lot of industry interest in our Uruguay program. And so we'll have an update at some point but don't have anything to announce today on that.

    是的。所以,Leo,就兩件事。第一,我們在烏拉圭確實有一個開放的資料室。我們已經從外部證明了這一點。業界對我們的烏拉圭計畫表現出了濃厚的興趣。所以我們會擇日發布最新消息,但今天沒有什麼可以宣布的。

  • And then the two completions, the two DUCs we completed at Alpine were purely acreage retention. There were wells we drilled. We needed to go ahead and complete those. We've actually got a better Waha price now. So the economics look really good, but it's about preserving optionality and holding acreage in the future.

    然後,我們在 Alpine 完成的兩處 DUC 計畫純粹是為了保留土地面積。我們鑽了一些井。我們需要繼續完成這些工作。我們現在拿到了更優惠的Waha價格。所以從經濟角度來看,情況確實不錯,但關鍵在於保留選擇權,並在未來持有土地。

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • Just as you look at the timing, Leo real quick, the timing of when we bring those DUCs on, you get that flush production December, January, February, Waha is well above $2. And so the timing feels right to bring them on. But again, the main reason for doing that to what John said, is to retain some acreage there. So it just seems -- you get the flush production, the economics line up and you get to retain the acreage for optionality.

    就像你快速看一下時機一樣,Leo,我們推出這些DUC的時機,你會在12月、1月、2月獲得大量產量,Waha的價格遠高於2美元。因此,現在正是讓他們加入的好時機。但約翰所說的,這樣做的主要原因是為了保留那裡的一些土地。所以看起來就是——產量充足,經濟效益也符合預期,而且你還能保留土地面積以獲得選擇權。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay. And just on the capital for '26. Just wanted to kind of square everything in the circle here. So it sounds like development CapEx down 10% year-over-year, exploration CapEx, down a little bit. ARO spend, you talked about up kind of $55 million after tax. Is there anything else like infrastructure or anything like that, that might kind of be a final moving part? And just any kind of thoughts on changes for that next year.

    好的。僅就 2026 年的首都而言。我只是想把這裡所有的事情理順一下。所以聽起來開發資本支出比去年同期下降了 10%,勘探資本支出略有下降。ARO支出,你提到稅後大約高達5500萬美元。還有其他類似基礎設施之類的東西,可以算是最後一個活動部件嗎?大家對明年可能的改變有什麼想法嗎?

  • Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

    Ben Rodgers - Executive Vice President Chief Financial Officer

  • That really captures the big items. So because any infrastructure spend would be captured in the development capital, so that really captures all of it. The only other piece is the marketing book right now is kind of in the low to mid 400s as we look at next year at strip, so another very solid year from our marketing book. Again, that's both transport as well as LNG. But other than that, I think we've captured most of the big items.

    這確實涵蓋了主要內容。因為任何基礎設施支出都會計入發展資本,所以實際上就包含了所有支出。唯一其他的一點是,就我們明年的行銷預算而言,目前大概在 400 美元左右,所以我們的行銷預算又將迎來非常穩健的一年。再次強調,這既包括運輸,也包括液化天然氣。但除此之外,我認為我們已經掌握了大部分重要資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to John Christmann for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我謹請約翰·克里斯特曼作總結發言。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. Our strong results year-to-date have been underpinned by remarkable performance across our entire business. This underscores confidence in our plan and creates positive momentum going into 2026. The capture of meaningful cost savings has improved our free cash flow profile, enhanced our investment opportunities and added inventory to our portfolio.

    謝謝。今年迄今為止的強勁業績得益於我們整個業務的出色表現。這凸顯了我們對計劃的信心,並為進入 2026 年創造了積極的勢頭。實現顯著的成本節約改善了我們的自由現金流狀況,增強了我們的投資機會,並為我們的投資組合增加了庫存。

  • Our efforts to rigorously improve our cost structure will continue, and we are now targeting an additional $50 million to $100 million in run rate savings by the end of 2026. We continue to benefit from our diversified portfolio with a step change in capital efficiency in the Permian, strong momentum with Egypt Gas and the GranMorgu project in Suriname, progressing on schedule. Lastly, we remain very optimistic on the impact our exploration portfolio can have on our future.

    我們將繼續努力嚴格改善成本結構,目前的目標是到 2026 年底再節省 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的營運成本。我們繼續受益於多元化的投資組合,二疊紀盆地的資本效率實現了飛躍式提升,埃及天然氣項目勢頭強勁,蘇利南的 GranMorgu 項目也按計劃推進。最後,我們對勘探項目組合能夠對我們的未來產生的影響仍然非常樂觀。

  • With that, I will turn the call back over to the operator and thank you very much for joining us today.

    那麼,我將把電話轉回給接線員,非常感謝您今天收看我們的節目。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.

    是的。感謝您參加今天的會議。程式到此結束,您可以斷開連線了。