阿帕契 (APA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the APA Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 financial and operational Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的支持。歡迎了解 APA 公司 2024 年第四季財務與營運績效。此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後,將有問答環節。(操作員指令)

  • As a reminder today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Ben Rodgers, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

    提醒一下,今天的節目正在錄製。現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人,財務高級副總裁兼財務主管 Ben Rodgers。先生,請繼續。

  • Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer

    Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us on APA Corporation's fourth quarter and year-end 2024 financial and operational results conference call. We will begin the call with an overview by CEO, John Christmann. Steve Riney, President and CFO, will then provide further color on our results and outlook.

    早安,感謝您參加 APA Corporation 2024 年第四季和年終財務和營運業績電話會議。我們將以執行長 John Christmann 的概述開始此次電話會議。總裁兼財務長史蒂夫·萊尼 (Steve Riney) 將進一步介紹我們的業績和前景。

  • Also on the call and available to answer questions are Tracy Henderson, Executive Vice President of Exploration; and Clay Bretches, Executive Vice President of Operations. Our prepared remarks will be about 20 minutes in length with the remainder of the hour allotted for Q&A.

    勘探執行副總裁 Tracy Henderson 也出席了電話會議並回答問題;以及營運執行副總裁 Clay Bretches。我們的準備演講大約持續 20 分鐘,剩餘時間將用於問答環節。

  • In conjunction with yesterday's press release, I hope you've had the opportunity to review our financial and operational supplement, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.apacorp.com.

    結合昨天的新聞稿,我希望您有機會查看我們的財務和營運補充信息,可在我們投資者關係網站 investor.apacorp.com 上找到。

  • Please note that we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the supplemental information provided on our website.

    請注意,我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們網站上提供的補充資訊中可以找到這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異的對帳。

  • Consistent with previous reporting practices, adjusted production numbers cited in today's call are adjusted to exclude non-controlling interest in Egypt and Egypt tax barrels.

    與先前的報告慣例一致,今天的電話會議中引用的調整後產量數字經過調整,排除了埃及的非控制權益和埃及稅收桶。

  • I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion will contain forward-looking estimates and assumptions based on our current views and reasonable expectations. However, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss on today's call. A full disclaimer is located with the supplemental information on our website.

    我想提醒大家,今天的討論將包含基於我們當前觀點和合理預期的前瞻性估計和假設。然而,許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們今天電話會議上討論的結果有重大差異。完整的免責聲明位於我們的網站上的補充資訊中。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to John.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給約翰。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us. On the call today, I will review our 2024 accomplishments, share highlights of our fourth quarter performance and provide an overview of our 2025 plan and other key long-term objectives.

    早安,感謝您加入我們。在今天的電話會議上,我將回顧我們 2024 年的成就,分享我們第四季度業績的亮點,並概述我們的 2025 年計劃和其他關鍵的長期目標。

  • Over the last several years, APA has been strategically reshaped in numerous ways. We have enhanced the quality and sustainability of the portfolio, in our core areas of the Permian Basin and the Western Desert of Egypt, while also building long-term optionality through a differentiated exploration strategy. Throughout this process, we have been strengthening the balance sheet and prudently allocating capital to prioritize returns.

    在過去的幾年中,APA 在許多方面進行了戰略重塑。我們在二疊紀盆地和埃及西部沙漠等核心區域的投資組合品質和永續性得到了提升,同時透過差異化的勘探策略建構了長期選擇權。在此過程中,我們一直在加強資產負債表,並審慎分配資本以優先考慮回報。

  • 2024 was a year of notable further progress on all of these fronts. In the Permian, we continue to strategically refine our position with the acquisition of Callon and the sale of non-core assets. In Egypt, we signed a new gas price agreement creating the potential for significant additional drilling opportunities with returns on par with oil. In Suriname, we reached a final investment decision for our first oil development.

    2024 年是所有這些方面都取得顯著進展的一年。在二疊紀盆地,我們透過收購 Callon 和出售非核心資產,繼續從策略上完善我們的地位。在埃及,我們簽署了新的天然氣價格協議,創造了大量額外的鑽探機會,回報率與石油相當。在蘇利南,我們就首次石油開發做出了最終投資決定。

  • Lastly, we achieved a BBB- rating from S&P and are now investment grade with all three rating agencies. With the significant portfolio changes in the Permian Basin during 2024, our US business is now almost entirely comprised of unconventional assets. This strategic shift has solidified the Permian as the cornerstone of our asset base, driving over 75% of our current adjusted production and providing a more predictable and steady business model.

    最後,我們獲得了標準普爾的 BBB- 評級,現在都被三個評級機構評為投資級。隨著 2024 年二疊紀盆地投資組合的重大變化,我們的美國業務現在幾乎完全由非常規資產組成。這項策略轉變鞏固了二疊紀作為我們資產基礎基石的地位,推動了我們目前調整後產量的75%以上,並提供了更可預測且更穩定的商業模式。

  • As seen in our supplement released yesterday, APA's scale of the Permian now stands out rivaling and surpassing many of our US independent shale peers. In Egypt, we successfully returned to more normalized workover and recompletion backlogs, while also improving our PDP decline through waterflood activities. These efforts have provided a much more predictable oil production profile, increasing the overall efficiency and longevity of our operations.

    正如我們昨天發布的補充資料所示,APA 的二疊紀規模現已脫穎而出,可以與許多美國獨立頁岩同行相媲美,甚至超越它們。在埃及,我們成功恢復了更正常的修井和重新完井積壓,同時透過注水活動改善了PDP遞減情況。這些努力提供了更可預測的石油生產狀況,提高了我們營運的整體效率和壽命。

  • In Suriname, we reached a significant milestone when our partner, Total, announced FID on the GranMorgu project with a capacity of 220,000 barrels of oil per day and first oil expected in 2028. As you all recall, based on the joint venture agreement we have with Total, our capital spending exposure for the project will be very manageable. 2024 also highlighted the value of our gas trading activities, where we realized an annual net gain of nearly $0.5 billion.

    在蘇利南,我們達到了一個重要的里程碑,我們的合作夥伴道達爾宣布對 GranMorgu 項目進行最終投資決定,該項目日產能為 22 萬桶石油,預計 2028 年產出第一批石油。大家還記得,根據我們與道達爾達成的合資協議,我們在該專案上的資本支出風險將非常可控。 2024年也凸顯了我們的天然氣交易活動的價值,我們實現了近5億美元的年淨收益。

  • At current strip prices we believe 2025 will be a similarly strong year. Lastly, we continue to deliver on our capital return framework. In 2024, we returned 71% of free cash flow through $353 million in dividends and $246 million in share repurchases. This includes $100 million of repurchases executed during the fourth quarter at a price just under $22 per share. We continue to believe our shares offer a compelling value, and we will be inclined to lean into the buyback program at such prices.

    以目前的帶鋼價格,我們相信 2025 年也將是同樣強勁的一年。最後,我們將繼續履行我們的資本回報框架。2024 年,我們透過 3.53 億美元的股息和 2.46 億美元的股票回購返還了 71% 的自由現金流。其中包括第四季以每股略低於 22 美元的價格執行的 1 億美元回購。我們仍然相信我們的股票具有引人注目的價值,我們傾向於以這樣的價格實施回購計劃。

  • Moving now to a few highlights from the fourth quarter. We delivered production volumes above guidance in all three of our operating regions and did so on a capital program that came in lower than guidance primarily due to ongoing well cost reductions in the Permian Basin. These factors were the main drivers in delivering $420 million of free cash flow during the quarter.

    現在來看看第四季的一些亮點。我們在所有三個營運區域的產量均高於預期,但資本計畫的支出低於預期,這主要歸因於二疊紀盆地持續的油井成本降低。這些因素是本季實現 4.2 億美元自由現金流的主要驅動力。

  • In November, we added a rig in Egypt to initiate a gas-focused drilling program. We are very pleased with the early results and now expect year-over-year gas production to increase for the first time in over a decade. Finally, on December 31, we closed on the sale of our non-core conventional properties in the Permian Basin.

    11 月份,我們在埃及增加了一座鑽井平台,以啟動以天然氣為重點的鑽探計畫。我們對早期結果非常滿意,現在預計天然氣產量將實現十多年來首次同比增長。最後,12月31日,我們完成了位於二疊紀盆地的非核心常規資產的出售。

  • Let me now turn to the progress we have made with Callon. We acquired Callon primarily to add scale and inventory to our existing Delaware footprint. We also anticipated capturing meaningful synergies most of which we achieved on a sustainable basis by the end of 2024.

    現在讓我來談談我們與卡隆所取得的進展。我們收購 Callon 主要是為了擴大我們現有的德拉瓦州業務規模和庫存。我們也預計實現有意義的協同效應,其中大部分將在 2024 年底前以可持續的方式實現。

  • As we took over operations, our focus was on addressing the capital and operating efficiencies required to deliver industry competitive returns. By increasing lateral length while reducing total well costs, we were able to lower breakeven oil prices in 2024 to $61 per barrel compared to Callon's 2023 breakeven of $78 per barrel. We are looking forward to further improvements in 2025 and beyond.

    當我們接管營運時,我們的重點是解決實現產業競爭回報所需的資本和營運效率。透過增加水平段長度同時降低井總成本,我們能夠將 2024 年的損益平衡油價降低至每桶 61 美元,而 Callon 2023 年的損益平衡油價為每桶 78 美元。我們期待 2025 年及以後有進一步的進展。

  • In the Midland Basin in Northern Howard County, our early results have significantly outperformed expectations. We plan to return to this area with tighter well spacing on future pads, which will increase inventory counts and capture more resource than we originally anticipated. This has a positive readthrough to offset legacy APA acreage as well, and we will revisit these opportunities in the future.

    在霍華德縣北部的米德蘭盆地,我們的早期業績已大大超出預期。我們計劃在未來的鑽井平台上以更緊密的井距重返這一區域,這將增加庫存數量並獲得比我們最初預期的更多的資源。這對於抵消遺留的 APA 土地面積也有積極的意義,我們將在未來重新審視這些機會。

  • Moving on to our 2025 plan. Our 2024 achievements helped lay the foundation for an efficient activity set and more predictable production profile in 2025 and beyond. We expect to run an eight-rig program in the Permian and a 12-rig program in Egypt. This activity set results in a combined development capital budget of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion and reflects more than a 20% year-over-year reduction in development capital in the Permian, when adjusting for Callon's first quarter 2024 spend.

    繼續我們的 2025 計劃。我們在 2024 年所取得的成就為 2025 年及以後高效的活動組合和更可預測的生產狀況奠定了基礎。我們預計將在二疊紀盆地運行一個 8 鑽機項目,在埃及運行一個 12 鑽機項目。這一系列活動導致綜合開發資本預算達到 22 億至 23 億美元,並反映出在根據 Callon 2024 年第一季的支出進行調整後,二疊紀開發資本年比減少了 20% 以上。

  • Adding $200 million for Suriname development and $100 million for exploration capital, primarily in Alaska, we expect our total capital budget to be $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. With this lower development capital budget, we expect to deliver higher total adjusted production in 2025, compared to 2024. While this includes the benefit of no planned gas curtailments, it also underscores the progress we are making on capital efficiency through the integration of Callon and the stabilization of Egypt volumes.

    加上 2 億美元用於蘇利南開發和 1 億美元用於主要在阿拉斯加的勘探資本,我們預計總資本預算將達到 25 億至 26 億美元。由於開發資本預算較低,我們預期 2025 年的總調整產量將高於 2024 年。這不僅包括不進行計畫內天然氣減產的好處,也凸顯了我們透過整合卡隆天然氣和穩定埃及天然氣產量在資本效率方面所取得的進展。

  • Lastly, I want to touch on the cost reduction initiatives we announced in our earnings release yesterday. In the fourth quarter, we launched an effort to analyze cost-saving opportunities across 3 core areas that drive the majority of our annual controllable spend, capital, LOE and overhead.

    最後,我想談談我們昨天在收益報告中宣布的成本削減措施。在第四季度,我們啟動了一項工作來分析三大核心領域的成本節約機會,這三大核心領域佔據了我們大部分年度可控支出、資本、LOE 和管理費用。

  • We are focused on identifying opportunities to streamline the business, improve the way we operate and control our costs. The first step in simplifying the organization was announced in January, when we reduced our corporate officer count by over one-third. Earlier this month, we initiated additional overhead decreases as part of a broader streamlining effort across the organization. These initial reductions, coupled with the targeted savings in capital, LOE and additional overhead spend are expected to generate at least $350 million in annualized savings by year-end 2027. These efforts will drive free cash flow expansion over the next several years.

    我們專注於尋找機會簡化業務、改善營運方式和控製成本。精簡組織架構的第一步於一月宣布,當時我們將公司高階主管人數減少了三分之一以上。本月初,作為全組織範圍內更廣泛精簡措施的一部分,我們啟動了額外的管理費用削減措施。這些初步削減,加上資本、LOE 和額外管理費用的目標節省,預計到 2027 年底將產生至少 3.5 億美元的年度節省。這些努力將推動未來幾年自由現金流的擴大。

  • In closing, APA made significant continued progress in 2024 to streamline our portfolio and establish a core asset base that can underpin a sustainable activity set and predictable production profile from the Permian and Egypt for the long-term. In the short to medium-term, we will work to reduce our controllable spend. This is our path to meaningful free cash flow growth in the 2025 to 2027 time frame. Ahead of Suriname first oil in 2028, which will underpin a further step change in free cash flow into the next decade.

    最後,APA 在 2024 年取得了重大進展,精簡了我們的投資組合併建立了核心資產基礎,為二疊紀和埃及的長期永續活動和可預測的生產狀況提供了支持。從短期到中期來看,我們將努力減少可控支出。這是我們在 2025 年至 2027 年期間實現有意義的自由現金流成長的途徑。蘇利南將於 2028 年首次開採石油,這將為未來十年自由現金流的進一步變化奠定基礎。

  • We believe that this cash flow growth profile coupled with our high-quality exploration portfolio is differentiated for many of our peers and will drive growth and long-term shareholder value.

    我們相信,這種現金流增長狀況加上我們高品質的勘探組合使我們在許多同行中脫穎而出,並將推動成長和長期股東價值。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to Steve.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, John. For the fourth quarter, under generally accepted accounting principles, APA reported consolidated net income of $354 million or $0.96 per diluted common share. As usual, these results include items that are outside of core earnings, the most significant of which was a $224 million US deferred tax benefit related to the write-off of APA's investment in our UK subsidiaries and a $190 million increase in our net liability on the former Fieldwood properties. Excluding these and other smaller items, adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $290 million or $0.79 per share.

    謝謝你,約翰。根據公認會計原則,APA 報告第四季合併淨收入為 3.54 億美元,即每股攤薄普通股 0.96 美元。與往常一樣,這些結果包括核心收益以外的項目,其中最重要的是與 APA 對我們英國子公司的投資註銷相關的 2.24 億美元美國遞延稅項收益,以及我們對前 Fieldwood 資產的淨負債增加 1.9 億美元。除這些和其他較小項目外,第四季度調整後的淨收入為 2.9 億美元,即每股 0.79 美元。

  • Fourth quarter DD&A expense was higher than guidance, primarily due to accelerated depreciation at Alpine High, with negative Waha gas prices for the second and third quarters of 2024, SEC reserve guidelines required that substantially all of the Alpine High reserves be written off. As a result, one-third of the Alpine High carrying value was depreciated in the fourth quarter and there will be a similar impact in the first quarter of 2025.

    第四季的 DD&A 費用高於預期,主要原因是 Alpine High 的折舊加速,2024 年第二季和第三季的 Waha 天然氣價格為負,SEC 儲備指南要求註銷幾乎所有的 Alpine High 儲備。結果,Alpine High 帳面價值的三分之一在第四季貶值,2025 年第一季也會產生類似的影響。

  • Fourth quarter lease operating expense also came in slightly higher than guidance, largely due to an extra North Sea cargo lifting in the quarter. The timing of North Sea cargo liftings has no impact on reported production, but it does affect the recognition of both sales revenue and LOE.

    第四季的租賃營運費用也略高於預期,這主要是由於本季額外的北海貨物運輸。北海貨物裝卸時間對報告的產量沒有影響,但會影響銷售收入和 LOE 的確認。

  • APA generated $420 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, the highest of any quarter in 2024. Through dividends and share repurchases, we returned 46% of this amount to shareholders in the quarter. For the full-year, we generated $841 million in free cash flow, of which we returned 71% to shareholders. Please refer to APA's published definition of free cash flow for any reconciliation needs.

    APA 在第四季度產生了 4.2 億美元的自由現金流,是 2024 年各季度中最高的。透過股利和股票回購,我們本季向股東返還了其中的 46%。全年我們產生了 8.41 億美元的自由現金流,其中 71% 回饋給了股東。對於任何對帳需求,請參閱 APA 發布的自由現金流量定義。

  • In 2024, we made significant progress, strengthening our balance sheet and are close to returning to pre-Callon debt levels only nine months after closing the acquisition. Recognizing the lower net debt levels and increased scale achieved last year, S&P upgraded our credit rating to BBB- in October. Our ultimate objective is to achieve BBB or better ratings, one notch above our current ratings at all three rating agencies.

    2024 年,我們取得了重大進展,加強了資產負債表,並且在完成收購後僅九個月就接近恢復到收購前的債務水平。標準普爾認識到去年較低的淨債務水平和擴大的規模,並於 10 月將我們的信用評級上調至 BBB-。我們的最終目標是獲得 BBB 或更高的評級,比三大評級機構的當前評級高出一級。

  • Wrapping up commentary on 2024, let me address the $190 million increase in the net contingent liability for the Fieldwood properties. This increase does not reflect any change in the anticipated cost to plug and abandon wells or to remove facilities and seafloor infrastructure. In 2021, as a result of the Fieldwood bankruptcy ruling an independent third-party was required to own and manage the assets. In this capacity, the third party operates the producing assets and maintains and monitors the non-producing assets awaiting abandonment.

    總結對 2024 年的評論,讓我來談談 Fieldwood 資產的淨或有負債增加 1.9 億美元。這一增長並未反映封堵和廢棄油井或拆除設施和海底基礎設施的預期成本的任何變化。2021 年,根據 Fieldwood 破產裁決,要求由獨立的第三方擁有和管理這些資產。在此身分下,第三方營運生產資產並維護和監控等待廢棄的非生產資產。

  • We believe the third party's cash cost for these activities remain too high. Until we take actions to directly reduce these costs, the resultant reduction in future net cash flows increases the contingent liability on our balance sheet. With a large portion of the security utilized, we are now free to explore all avenues to manage these assets and to enable a more prudent cost management system. We expect resolution to this later this year.

    我們認為第三方這些活動的現金成本仍然太高。除非我們採取行動直接降低這些成本,否則未來淨現金流的減少將增加我們資產負債表上的或有負債。在利用了大部分安全性之後,我們現在可以自由探索管理這些資產的所有途徑,並實現更審慎的成本管理系統。我們預計今年稍後這個問題能夠解決。

  • Turning to our 2025 outlook. Let me provide a few more details with respect to our guidance for the year. Starting with our capital spending cadence, you should expect our spending to be front-half weighted primarily due to the timing of Suriname capital calls and our exploration activities in Alaska. Despite a planned steady activity level, Permian is also first half weighted, primarily due to the timing of facility spend in the Basin.

    展望 2025 年。讓我提供有關我們今年指導的更多細節。從我們的資本支出節奏開始,您應該預期我們的支出將是前半部分加權的,這主要是由於蘇利南資本調用的時間和我們在阿拉斯加的勘探活動。儘管計畫中的活動水準穩定,但二疊紀盆地也受上半年影響較大,主要歸因於盆地內設施投入的時間安排。

  • Looking at production, 2024 oil volumes for the US adjusted for the effects of asset sales and the first quarter Callon production were 128,000 barrels of oil per day. With the 8-rig program planned in the Permian for 2025, US oil volumes should be in the 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per day range.

    從產量來看,經資產出售的影響調整後,美國 2024 年的石油產量和第一季卡隆石油的日產量為 128,000 桶。根據計劃,2025 年二疊紀盆地將有 8 個鑽井平台投入使用,屆時美國石油產量將達到每天 125,000 至 127,000 桶。

  • Total US volumes should increase mid-single digits as we do not anticipate any price-related production curtailments this year. In Egypt, adjusted production is expected to grow slightly year-over-year with a modest decline in gross volumes. On the gas front, we initiated drilling activity in the fourth quarter and have seen very encouraging results.

    由於我們預計今年美國的總產量不會因價格而出現任何減產,因此應會成長中等個位數。在埃及,調整後的產量預計將同比略有增長,但總產量將略有下降。在天然氣方面,我們在第四季度啟動了鑽探活動,並取得了非常令人鼓舞的結果。

  • As John indicated, we now expect gross gas production to grow year-over-year. Our average realized gas price is expected to increase from $2.96 per Mcf in the fourth quarter to at least $3.15 per Mcf in the first quarter. Average realized price will continue to grow through the year, with the full-year average expected in the $3.40 to $3.50 range. As we look beyond 2025, success in the gas program will determine our ability to continue growing gas production and we'll highlight any need for additional infrastructure investment.

    正如約翰所說,我們現在預計天然氣總產量將逐年增加。我們的平均實現天然氣價格預計將從第四季的每千立方英尺 2.96 美元上漲至第一季的至少每千立方英尺 3.15 美元。平均實現價格將全年持續成長,預計全年平均價格在 3.40 美元至 3.50 美元之間。展望2025年後,天然氣專案的成功將決定我們繼續增加天然氣產量的能力,並且我們將強調任何額外基礎設施投資的必要性。

  • Moving to lease operating expense. For the US, we expect operated LOE per BOE in the Permian to be about 20% lower than 2024. This step change in operating efficiency reflects the progress we have made, streamlining our US portfolio and harvesting synergies from the acquisition of Callon. The return of curtailed gas volumes also contributes to the improvement in our per unit LOE.

    轉向租賃營運費用。對美國而言,我們預計二疊紀盆地每桶油當量的營運LOE將比 2024 年低約 20%。營運效率的這一重大變化反映了我們所取得的進展,精簡了我們的美國投資組合,並從收購 Callon 中獲得了協同效應。天然氣減產的恢復也有助於提高我們單位產量的 LOE。

  • In terms of our guidance related to G&A, it may appear that overhead costs are increasing significantly in 2025. Total overhead costs are, in fact, going down but it is difficult to see that comparing 2024 actual G&A expense to 2025 guidance. Recall that overhead costs are allocated to multiple areas, including capital investment exploration LOE and G&A. The relationship between G&A expense and total overhead costs is impacted most significantly by allocation methodology and the mark-to-market impact for long-term incentive compensation.

    就我們有關 G&A 的指導而言,管理費用在 2025 年可能會大幅增加。事實上,總間接費用正在下降,但將 2024 年實際 G&A 費用與 2025 年指導費用進行比較,很難看出這一點。回想一下,間接費用分配給多個領域,包括資本投資勘探 LOE 和 G&A。管理費用與總間接成本之間的關係受分配方法和長期激勵薪酬的市價影響最為顯著。

  • These items are causing G&A expense to increase despite our plans to decrease overhead costs by at least $25 million in 2025. 2024 was a strong year for our third-party gas trading business, and 2025 is shaping up to perform at a similar level. This year, the Waha basis spread remains advantageous and we have seen appreciation in international LNG prices benefiting APA through our Cheniere gas supply contract. Given current strip prices, we anticipate generating a combined net gain of $600 million for 2025.

    儘管我們計劃在 2025 年將管理費用減少至少 2,500 萬美元,但這些項目仍導致 G&A 費用增加。 2024 年是我們第三方天然氣交易業務表現強勁的一年,而 2025 年的表現也將達到類似的水準。今年,Waha 基差依然保持有利,而且我們看到國際液化天然氣價格上漲,使 APA 透過 Cheniere 天然氣供應合約受益。根據目前的礦條價格,我們預計 2025 年的綜合淨收益將達到 6 億美元。

  • Lastly, I would like to end with some additional color around our cost reduction initiatives. We are targeting $350 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2027. Our goal is not just to capture some quick hit opportunities to lower costs, although that is certainly a near-term focus. Our goal is to rightsize our entire cost structure to achieve a long-term, purposeful and sustainable outcome.

    最後,我想補充一下我們的成本削減措施。我們的目標是到 2027 年底實現每年 3.5 億美元的成本節約。我們的目標不僅僅是抓住一些快速降低成本的機會,儘管這無疑是近期的重點。我們的目標是調整整個成本結構,以實現長期、有目的且可持續的成果。

  • In the near-term, this will naturally focus on efforts, which are simply a matter of choice and discretion. Much of this is in our overhead cost structure and in day-to-day field operating practices. In the intermediate term, it will address our capital cost structure for things like drilling and completions and facilities as well as operating practices such as life of field resource management and field automation.

    短期內,這自然會集中在努力,而這只是一個選擇和判斷的問題。其中大部分都體現在我們的間接成本結構和日常現場操作實踐中。從中期來看,它將解決鑽井、完井和設施等方面的資本成本結構以及油田資源管理和油田自動化等營運實踐。

  • For the longer term, it will address more deeply ingrained structures like IT systems and infrastructure and accounting applications and procedures. This is why we have set longer-term targets out to 2027. Some of these things are happening quickly and others will take more time and effort.

    從長遠來看,它將解決更深層的結構問題,如IT系統和基礎設施以及會計應用程式和程序。這就是我們設定至2027年的長期目標的原因。其中一些事情正在迅速發生,而其他事情則需要更多的時間和精力。

  • In 2025, our objective is to achieve run rate savings of $100 million to $125 million by the end of this year. At this point, we anticipate an in-year capture of around $60 million of actual savings, which is something we hope to improve upon as we go through the year. Our cost reduction targets are an important effort for the entire organization and are therefore included in both our short-term and long-term incentive compensation programs.

    到 2025 年,我們的目標是在今年年底實現 1 億至 1.25 億美元的運行率節約。目前,我們預計今年的實際節省將達到約 6,000 萬美元,我們希望在這一年中能取得更好的成績。我們的成本削減目標是整個組織的一項重要努力,因此被納入我們的短期和長期激勵薪酬計劃中。

  • Already this year, we have made good progress on restructuring our organization, starting with the reduction in our officer count that John mentioned. This was followed by a greater than 10% reduction in our global overhead structure in February. The combined annual run rate savings with these two simplification steps is approximately $35 million per year salaries and benefits.

    今年,我們在組織重組方面已經取得了良好進展,首先是約翰提到的減少官員人數。隨後,我們二月全球間接費用結構又削減了10%以上。這兩個簡化步驟帶來的綜合年度節省約為每年 3500 萬美元的工資和福利。

  • In closing, the ongoing enhancement in the quality and sustainability of our core portfolio, combined with the rightsizing of our cost structure will lay a foundation for growing free cash flow over the next three years. Suriname first oil in 2028 will then carry that free cash flow growth into the next decade. Over that same time period, free cash flow per share increases even more significantly as a result of the share buybacks built into our capital returns framework.

    最後,我們核心產品組合品質和永續性的不斷提升,加上成本結構的合理調整,將為未來三年自由現金流的成長奠定基礎。蘇利南將於 2028 年首次開採石油,這將帶來未來十年的自由現金流成長。在同一時期內,由於我們資本回報框架中內建的股票回購,每股自由現金流量甚至顯著增加。

  • And with that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給接線生進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

    (操作員指示)來自 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everybody. John and Steve, like I think looking at your share performance, whether we take 2025 year-to-date or 2024 or 2023, something is clearly not clicking in terms of the $420 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, the $600 million of gas trading, the cost cutting, it all adds up to big numbers, but yet your share price continues to frankly get decimated relative to your peer group.

    謝謝。大家早安。約翰和史蒂夫,我認為從你們的股票表現來看,無論我們以 2025 年年初至今、2024 年還是 2023 年來看,第四季度的 4.2 億美元自由現金流、6 億美元的天然氣交易、成本削減等顯然存在問題,所有這些加起來都是很大的數字,但你們的股價相對於同行而言卻繼續大幅下跌。

  • It seems to us at least that there is a crisis of confidence in the guidance that is persistently getting missed. And I'd like to ask you what confidence do you have through these cost-cutting measures that control over your guidance and visibility is going to get better?

    至少在我們看來,人們對這長期被忽視的指導意見存在著信任危機。我想問一下,透過這些削減成本的措施,您是否有信心能夠更好地控制您的指導和可見度?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Doug, I appreciate you jumping on. I appreciate the question. I think if you step back, number one, if you look at what we're doing on the cost structure side and you look at the portfolio over the last several years, we've really transformed our two anchor assets, Permian and Egypt into two businesses that we believe now have sustainable and durable inventory and the future with them, right? And if you look back over the last seven or eight quarters, we've actually done pretty well on hitting targets on the guidance.

    道格,我很感謝你的支持。我很感謝你提出這個問題。我認為,如果你退一步考慮,首先,如果你看看我們在成本結構方面所做的事情,並看看過去幾年的投資組合,我們確實將我們的兩個錨定資產,二疊紀和埃及,轉變為兩個我們認為現在擁有可持續和耐用庫存和未來的業務,對嗎?如果回顧過去七、八個季度,我們實際上在實現預期目標方面做得相當不錯。

  • As far as the cost reductions, you go back to middle of last year, is we're always focused on the cost structure and what can we do to generate more free cash flow.

    至於成本削減,可以追溯到去年年中,當時我們一直專注於成本結構以及如何產生更多的自由現金流。

  • Now that we've got two businesses that, quite frankly, we don't feel like you need to grow with Suriname now coming on in 2028. We started looking at how do we moderate and put some sustainability and predictability in those, which is why you saw us ratchet the capital down in the back half of the year. We've now got programs in Egypt, the 12 rigs and Permian with eight that we feel like we can deliver.

    現在我們已經有兩家公司了,坦白說,我們認為隨著蘇利南在 2028 年的到來,我們不需要再發展它們。我們開始研究如何進行調節並在其中實現一定的可持續性和可預測性,這就是為什麼你看到我們在下半年削減了資本。目前,我們在埃及有 12 個鑽井平台項目,在二疊紀盆地有 8 個鑽井平台項目,我們覺得我們能夠完成。

  • And it's all about cost structure. And so we started stepping back and looking at that hard. And took a very deliberate approach starting at the top of the organization. I think we've laid out $350 million over the next three years. We're getting after it.

    這一切都和成本結構有關。因此我們開始回顧並認真審視這個問題。並從組織高層開始採取了非常謹慎的做法。我認為我們在未來三年內已經投入了 3.5 億美元。我們正在追趕它。

  • We've already got $35 million of it kind of already identified and captured. And so I feel really confident that we set meaningful targets that we will deliver. And I think we've got the asset base in a place today where it will also deliver.

    我們已經識別並扣押了其中的 3500 萬美元。因此,我非常有信心,我們設定的目標很有意義,我們一定會實現。我認為,我們如今的資產基礎已經能夠發揮作用。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • I know it's a tricky one to answer, John. We're all going to have to watch what happens. But my follow-on is – and you and I and Steve have talked about this often, but if I could kind of replay back to you a couple of things you said in your opening remarks about you believe your stock is compelling value, you're going to return 60% of your free cash flow to shareholders.

    我知道這個問題很難回答,約翰。我們都必須觀察接下來會發生什麼事。但我的後續問題是——你、我和史蒂夫經常談論這個問題,但如果我可以重複一下你在開場白中說的幾件事,你相信你的股票具有引人注目的價值,你會將 60% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

  • Your yield is almost 5%. Your capital structure is getting close to 4% to 5% debt. I don't really care too much about the rating agency, as you say about it. Your equity holders are – they're what's left after net debt. Why are you continuing to buy prioritize share buybacks when you can easily confirm transfer of value from debt to equity by paying down your debt because you've been buying back shares for three years and your share price is down 57%?

    您的收益率接近5%。您的資本結構接近4%到5%的債務。正如您所說,我其實不太關心評級機構。您的股權持有者是 – 他們是淨債務之後剩下的部分。為什麼你還要繼續優先回購股票?因為你可以透過償還債務輕鬆地確認價值從債務轉移到股權,因為你已經回購股票三年了,而你的股價卻下跌了 57%?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I would say, Doug, we've also – I mean if you look at the returns framework, we've also been buying back debt. And I think we've made meaningful progress on both fronts. And I think with the framework that we have in place today, we will make progress on both fronts, both on the share side and the debt side.

    是的。我想說,道格,如果你看看回報框架,我們也一直在回購債務。我認為我們在這兩個方面都取得了有意義的進展。我認為,憑藉我們今天建立的框架,我們將在股票和債務兩方面取得進展。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Doug, I just said the same thing. We're working on both sides of that. And you have a $40 price target on us. And with that kind of potential appreciation buying back shares is leveraging to our current shareholder base and a number of our shareholder base actually support the buyback pretty heavily.

    是的。道格,我剛才也說了同樣的話。我們正在從兩個方面開展工作。您對我們的目標價是 40 美元。而且,借助這種潛在的升值,回購股票可以發揮我們現有股東基礎的作用,而我們的許多股東實際上都非常支持回購。

  • Doug Leggate - Analyst

    Doug Leggate - Analyst

  • Yes. I got to defend myself very quickly. Let me just say one thing, and I'll pass it on. That assumes a normalized discount rate, Steve, which you're not going to get with this capital structure given the volatility in your business.

    是的。我必須迅速為自己辯護。我只想說一句話,然後我就會傳達它。史蒂夫,這假設了一個標準化的折現率,但考慮到你業務的波動性,你不會在這種資本結構下獲得這樣的折現率。

  • So if you don't fix the capital structure, you're discount rate is not going to normalize. That's kind of the thesis. But I'll leave it there. I appreciate you answering the question. I know it's not easy, but thanks for your time.

    因此,如果您不修復資本結構,您的折現率就不會正常化。這就是這樣的論點。但我會把它留在那裡。感謝您回答這個問題。我知道這並不容易,但還是感謝您的時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Meade from Johnson Rice.

    約翰遜賴斯公司的查爾斯·米德。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Good morning, John and Steve and the rest of the APA team there.

    早安,約翰、史蒂夫以及 APA 團隊的其他成員。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Charles.

    早上好,查爾斯。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • John, I want to ask a couple of questions about what's going on with the asset base. And I guess the first one would be, can you give us an update on what's going on in Alaska, specifically with the [Saki] exploration well, where you are on the progress what you've seen? And particularly, how that kind of, I guess, interacts or have it in reference to the activity you guys did in the last drilling season?

    約翰,我想問幾個有關資產基礎狀況的問題。我想第一個問題是,您能否向我們介紹一下阿拉斯加的最新情況,特別是 [Saki] 勘探井的情況,您看到的進展如何?具體來說,我猜這與你們上個鑽井季節所做的活動有何關聯?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. What I would say, Charles, is I think the big difference is the operations are going extremely well and going very smoothly. We are not in a position yet to comment on anything as we're not into the pay zones yet, but I can tell you things are on track. And things are going extremely well operationally, and it's been very smooth from that standpoint. So obviously, we're anxious to see the results, and they'll be forthcoming, so far, so good.

    是的。查爾斯,我想說的是,我認為最大的不同是營運進展得非常順利。由於我們尚未進入付費區,因此我們尚無法對任何事情發表評論,但我可以告訴你,事情正在按計劃進行。從營運角度來看,一切進展非常順利,一切都非常順利。顯然,我們急切地想看到結果,而且到目前為止,結果還不錯。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Got it. So just stay tuned there. And then, John, going back to some of your prepared comments about the Permian, specifically Howard County, I think you said that you guys have seen – you're seeing better productivity in some zones and you're looking at some future down spacing.

    知道了。因此請繼續關注。然後,約翰,回到你準備好的關於二疊紀,特別是霍華德縣的一些評論,我想你說過你們已經看到——你們看到一些區域的生產力有所提高,並且你們正在考慮未來的一些向下延伸的空間。

  • My understanding of Howard County, of course, it varies as you go from west to east, but that – the zones you have are good, but there's not as much stacked potential up and down the column and that, in general, the spacing needs to be wider in Howard to get the same kind of EURs.

    當然,我對霍華德縣的理解是從西到東有所不同,但你所擁有的區域很好,但在整個列中沒有那麼多的堆疊潛力,而且一般來說,霍華德的間距需要更寬才能獲得相同類型的 EUR。

  • But I wonder if you could talk about where in Howard County, what more specifically you're seeing with these – with the higher productivity, whether it's just related to longer laterals? And perhaps if this is a different zone, up or down the column there where you're seeing these positive results?

    但我想知道您是否可以談談在霍華德縣,您更具體地看到了哪些情況——生產率更高,是否僅與更長的水平井有關?也許如果這是一個不同的區域,在列的上方或下方您會看到這些積極的結果?

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Yes. Charles, what I would just say is, as you're starting to press the northern boundaries. And we had spaced these a little wider and quite frankly, the results have been fantastic. So we're excited about that. I don't want to comment too much. I mean we've got some offset acreage. So there are some other ramifications there. But we're very pleased with the results. They've been fantastic. And like I said, we will be coming back. And fortunately, we're going to be able to space the wells on tighter spacing, but we'll come back with that, right. But we're very, very excited about the potential up there.

    是的。查爾斯,我只想說,當你開始壓制北部邊界時。而且,我們將這些間隔稍微擴大了一些,坦白說,結果非常棒。我們對此感到很興奮。我不想發表太多評論。我的意思是我們有一些抵消面積。因此,這也會產生其他一些影響。但我們對結果非常滿意。他們表現棒極了。就像我說的,我們會回來的。幸運的是,我們能夠將油井的間距縮小到更小,但我們會再回來的,對吧。但我們對於那裡的潛力感到非常興奮。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • Okay. Well stay tuned on that too. Thanks, John.

    好的。我們也將繼續關注這一點。謝謝,約翰。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet, Charles

    當然,查爾斯

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Hanold from RBC.

    來自 RBC 的 Scott Hanold。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks. If we could stick with the Permian for a minute. Could you talk to a couple of things. One, I guess, in your presentation deck, you talked about delineating some zones there. Can you just give us a sense of exactly what you're looking at and how much capital you're allocating to that this year? And secondarily, just in your Permian guidance, it does seem a little softer than sort of initial indications during the third quarter conference call. Just help me square the circle on that?

    是的。謝謝。如果我們能夠堅持二疊紀一分鐘。您能談一些事情嗎?首先,我想,在您的簡報中,您談到了劃分一些區域。您能否向我們介紹一下您正在關注的具體事項以及今年您將為此投入多少資金?其次,僅就您的 Permian 指引而言,它似乎確實比第三季電話會議上的初步跡像要弱一些。能幫我解決這個問題嗎?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. Scott, I would just say in Permian now, we've got eight rigs are lined out pretty well. That's why we will come back. There are some areas, as always is the case, you're testing new zones and landing zones because we're always trying to build future inventory.

    不。史考特,我只想說,現在在二疊紀,我們有八個鑽井平台排列得相當好。這就是我們要回來的原因。就像往常一樣,在某些領域,您正在測試新的區域和著陸區,因為我們一直在嘗試建立未來的庫存。

  • So, the tests up in Howard County were two of those later last year, and we've always break a few of those in. In terms of the overall guide with Permian, we were looking at high level. As you looked at last year, you're coming off of us and Callon combined running 11 rigs. We ran those. We started to drop down in the third quarter, and you've seen us now level off at 8 rigs. So.

    因此,霍華德縣的測試是去年稍後進行的其中兩項,我們一直都會進行其中一些測試。就 Permian 的整體指導而言,我們正在著眼於高水準。正如您所看到的,去年我們和 Callon 總共運作 11 個鑽孔機。我們運行了這些。我們在第三季開始下降,現在你已經看到我們的數量穩定在 8 座鑽孔機。所以。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Scott, if I could maybe give a little bit more detail. And John was right. We weren't typically in the third quarter results, we give directional guidance. We weren't trying to give guidance for 2025 for the Permian. But I understand why some people may have taken it that way.

    是的,斯科特,我可以提供更詳細的資訊嗎?約翰是對的。我們通常不會對第三季的業績給予方向性指引。我們並沒有試圖為二疊紀盆地 2025 年的發展提供指導。但我理解為什麼有些人會這麼理解。

  • What we were basically saying is that 2025 wasn't since we had already come down to eight rigs by that time. 2025 was not going to look like the fourth quarter, it was going to look more like the third quarter, but we were just kind of – we were trying to give some directional view on that as opposed to precise guidance. But if – I think it – for you to be able to understand what's going on in our Permian assets, you kind of have to understand the pattern of activity and the volumes associated with that.

    我們基本上是說,2025 年是不可能的,因為到那時我們的鑽機數量已經減少到 8 座。 2025 年看起來不會像第四季度,而更像第三季度,但我們只是——我們試圖對此給出一些方向性的觀點,而不是精確的指導。但如果——我認為——為了讓您能夠了解我們的二疊紀資產的狀況,您必須了解活動模式和與之相關的數量。

  • And John talked about it. In the first half, we were running 11 rigs, and we were turning in line on average 17 wells per month. Some of that included a little bit of DUC activity and some of it was drilling complete. In June, we started dropping rigs. We dropped one in June. We dropped one in July. Pretty quickly, we were down to eight rigs. And by the time we got to the end of the year, we'd finished the DUC population and we've gotten down to where we were turning in line 11 wells per month. And so what the – we came into the fourth quarter that really at a peak of production volume. And if I talk about numbers that exclude our Central Basin platform that we sold on December 31st, we peaked at production in the US at 140,000 barrels of oil a day in October.

    約翰也談論了這一點。上半年,我們運作了11座鑽孔機,平均每月鑽探17口井。其中一些包括少量的 DUC 活動,一些已經完成鑽探。六月,我們開始放棄鑽孔機。我們在六月掉了一個。我們在七月掉了一個。很快,我們的鑽機數量就減少到八台了。到年底,我們已經完成了 DUC 井群的建設,並且每月可以完成 11 口井的建設。那麼,當我們進入第四季度時,產量確實達到了頂峰。如果我談論的數字不包括我們在 12 月 31 日出售的中央盆地平台,那麼我們 10 月在美國的石油產量達到了 14 萬桶/天高峰。

  • And then we began declining, we averaged 134,000 for the quarter. And the exit rate in December rather balanced between those two numbers, was 128,000. We exited that. So that's the 134,000 average, which was the average for the fourth quarter. So the 128,000 was where we entered the first quarter. We've had some weather kind of some uncharacteristic amount of weather downtime so far in the quarter. That brings us down to we believe our first quarter is probably going to average 125,000 to 127,000.

    然後我們開始下降,本季平均為 134,000。12 月的退出率介於這兩個數字之間,為 128,000。我們退出了。這就是 134,000 的平均值,也是第四季的平均值。因此,128,000 是我們進入第一季時的水平。本季度到目前為止,我們遇到了一些不尋常的天氣停機時間。因此我們認為第一季的平均銷售量可能為 125,000 至 127,000。

  • With that, though, I think what we've gotten to is we've gotten to a base of production volume with the eight rigs running for the most part since about September. That we're at a base production volume that we believe is sustainable through the year, and that's why our average guidance for the year – for the full-year is 125,000 to 127,000 barrels a day as well. So hopefully, that gives a little bit more of the color behind why that's the case.

    不過,我認為我們已經達到了一定的生產量基礎,自九月以來,八座鑽機大部分都在運作。我們相信,目前的基礎產量是可以全年持續的,這也是為什麼我們對今年——全年——的平均預期是每天 125,000 至 127,000 桶。所以希望這能讓我們更清楚地了解為什麼會出現這種情況。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Yes. No, no, I appreciate that's good color. I mean a lot of tough questions you guys are answering today, but I think you guys know what you need to do. Let me turn my second question to Egypt. Obviously, the gas opportunity is encouraging. And can you give us a sense of when you look at your – I think it's 12 rigs you're going to be running this year there.

    是的。不,不,我很欣賞那好看的顏色。我的意思是今天你們要回答很多棘手的問題,但我認為你們知道你們知道自己需要做什麼。我的第二個問題是關於埃及的。顯然,天然氣機會是令人鼓舞的。您能否向我們介紹一下您今年將在那裡運行的 12 台鑽機的情況?

  • How do you balance those between oil and gas drilling? And is that going to change? And maybe a little color around what kind of infrastructure do you need to support the growth that could occur over the next couple of years in gas?

    如何平衡石油和天然氣鑽探之間的差距?這種情況會改變嗎?您是否可以稍微解釋一下,需要什麼樣的基礎設施來支持未來幾年天然氣產業的成長?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Scott, we had you cut out when you said how do you balance, I'm assuming how do you balance the rig count. And then at the tail end, I heard you reference infrastructure. Can you just reframe that real quickly to make sure we answer the right question?

    史考特,當你說如何平衡時,我們就把你打斷了,我假設你是如何平衡鑽孔機數量的。最後,我聽到您提到基礎設施。您能否快速地重新組織一下以確保我們回答了正確的問題?

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Yes. I'm sorry, if it went out. Yes, the question was how do you balance your 12 rig activity this year between oil and gas drilling? And what kind of infrastructure do you need to add to really get a lot more gas growth going forward if the returns are pretty strong under the new contract?

    是的。如果它出去了,我很抱歉。是的,問題是您今年如何平衡 12 個鑽井平台的石油和天然氣鑽探活動?如果新合約下的回報相當豐厚,那麼您需要添加什麼樣的基礎設施才能真正實現未來的天然氣成長?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. . I'll step back. And number one, we're off to a really good start. And with the 12 rigs, we mentioned – we picked up a rig in November. We dedicated that to gas, and we kind of went after some things that we knew were lower risk that we're high gas yields with also some liquids and condensate. And so we've been able to drill a couple of really good wells. We've been able to bring them into the infrastructure, which is why we're running pretty strong on the gas side. We are because they're high pressure. We have backed out some lower pressure gas in some areas because of the infrastructure requirements right now. But it's got us very confident in the gas program.

    是的。。我就退後一步。首先,我們的開局非常好。我們提到了 12 台鑽孔機,我們在 11 月購買了一台鑽孔機。我們致力於天然氣,並且追求一些我們知道風險較低的東西,即高天然氣產量以及一些液體和凝析油。因此,我們已經能夠鑽出幾口非常好的井。我們已經能夠將它們納入基礎設施,這就是我們在天然氣方面表現強勁的原因。因為他們的壓力很大。由於目前基礎設施的要求,我們已經在某些地區停止了部分低壓天然氣的使用。但它讓我們對天然氣計畫非常有信心。

  • And what you're likely to see us do is shift another rig or to gas this year. So we'll probably maintain the 12 rigs, but we could run two to three rigs on the gas program. And quite frankly, we're anxious to get to some of the exploration targets as well. But the first thing to do is let's go ahead and go after some of the targets that we know we could get online, get those flowing through. And that's why you're seeing the – our kind of our average gas price starting to creep up as we're bringing on some of that new strong gas.

    您可能會看到我們今年轉移另一座鑽孔機或天然氣。因此,我們可能會保留這 12 座鑽機,但我們可以在天然氣項目上運行兩到三座鑽機。坦白說,我們也渴望實現一些勘探目標。但首先我們要做的事情是繼續追求一些我們知道可以上網的目標,讓它們流通起來。這就是為什麼隨著我們引入一些新型強力天然氣,我們的平均天然氣價格開始上漲。

  • So the nice thing, you step back across the 5 million acres, we've got good infrastructure. At times, we've delivered – this is the first time in a dozen years, really, where we've been able to start to flatten or bring our gas curve up.

    好消息是,回顧這 500 萬英畝的土地,我們擁有良好的基礎設施。有時,我們確實做到了——這實際上是十幾年來第一次,我們能夠開始平緩或提高我們的天然氣曲線。

  • So there is infrastructure, but it's going to depend on what we find and how successful the program is as to where we need to eliminate the, what I'll call, bottlenecks or capacity or find ways to pipe the gas into areas where we can trade it or if we do have to build new infrastructure.

    因此,有基礎設施,但這將取決於我們發現了什麼以及該計劃的成功程度,取決於我們需要在哪些地方消除我所說的瓶頸或容量,或者找到將天然氣輸送到我們可以交易的地區的方法,或者我們是否確實需要建設新的基礎設施。

  • So, but in general, a good backbone of infrastructure, very promising results and quite frankly, we found a lot of gas in the Western Desert when we were looking for oil. So, I'm really anxious to see as we start looking into some of the areas that we avoided because we knew they were gas-rich, just what the capability would be.

    所以,總的來說,基礎設施建設良好,結果非常有希望,而且坦白說,我們在尋找石油時在西部沙漠發現了大量天然氣。所以,我們真的很想知道,當我們開始調查一些我們避開的地區時,因為我們知道這些地區富含天然氣,我們可以達到什麼樣的能力。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • Appreciate it. Thank you.

    非常感謝。謝謝。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet.

    當然。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani from ROTH.

    來自 ROTH 的 Leo Mariani。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyts

    Leo Mariani - Analyts

  • I wanted to follow up a little bit more on Egypt. I just want to get a sense of what the receivable situation is these days, have you started to see a little bit more substantial paydown of that? And what's the kind of outlook for that in 2025 in terms of getting some of your cash out?

    我想進一步了解埃及的情況。我只是想了解目前的應收帳款情況,你是否開始看到更大幅的還款了?那麼,從取得部分現金的角度來看,2025 年的前景如何?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes Leo, we were just in Cairo, and we're fortunate enough for the Egypt show. I did a keynote there and we were able – I was actually able to meet with the President. So if you go back and look over the last two years, the past due balance has been moving within a pretty tight band with due to timing.

    是的,Leo,我們剛剛到過開羅,很榮幸能參加埃及的演出。我在那裡做了一個主題演講,我們能夠——實際上我能夠與總統會面。因此,如果回顧過去兩年,就會發現逾期餘額由於時間原因一直在一個相當狹窄的範圍內變動。

  • And so when you step back and look at it, they've been pretty much staying current on what they owe when the past due has not been really growing or shrinking. But we do have reason to believe that we'll make some progress on that. They're committed to making some progress on that. And so I think we should see some progress made this year.

    因此,當你回顧一下時,你會發現他們的欠款基本上是按時償還的,而逾期金額並沒有真正增加或減少。但我們確實有理由相信我們會在這方面取得一些進展。他們致力於在這方面取得一些進展。因此我認為我們今年應該會取得一些進展。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And Leo, if I could just add one thing to that. In our supplement, we have a number of non-GAAP reconciliations in the back and some people tend to look at those for working capital movements. It's not a pure working capital movement analysis, but it's somewhat – it's characteristic of working capital movements.

    是的。還有 Leo,如果我可以補充一點的話。在我們的補充資料中,我們有大量非 GAAP 對帳表,有些人傾向於查看這些對帳表來了解營運資本變動。這不是純粹的營運資本流動分析,但在某種程度上它是營運資本流動的特徵。

  • And if you look at the Egypt portion of that non-GAAP reconciliation you might believe there was a big increase in receivables in the quarter. That is not correct. Receivables were basically flat in the quarter. What happened was we had an increase in drilling long leads. So it's just inventory for the drilling program. That's the working capital movement in Egypt.

    如果您查看非公認會計準則對帳中的埃及部分,您可能會認為本季的應收帳款大幅增加。那是不對的。本季應收帳款基本持平。實際情況是,我們的長引線鑽孔數量增加了。所以這只是鑽探計劃的庫存。這就是埃及的營運資本流動狀況。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyts

    Leo Mariani - Analyts

  • Okay. Appreciate that. I wanted to jump over to the purchased oil and gas sales here. You guys are guiding to $600 million in 2025. You obviously referenced strip prices. I was hoping maybe you could kind of give a little bit of breakdown there in terms of roughly how much is from the Cheniere contract versus how much is kind of from your domestic gas optimization business?

    好的。非常感謝。我想跳到這裡購買的石油和天然氣銷售部分。你們預計到 2025 年將達到 6 億美元。您顯然提到了條帶價格。我希望您能稍微細分一下,大概有多少來自 Cheniere 合同,有多少來自您的國內天然氣優化業務?

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. No problem. So if you look at 2024, the actuals, if I round up maybe slightly, the pipelines, the trading of gas around the pipelines from Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast was about $330 million, and the LNG contract was about $170 million for a total of $500 million for 2024.

    是的。沒問題。因此,如果您看一下 2024 年,實際情況(如果我稍微四捨五入的話)是,從二疊紀盆地到墨西哥灣沿岸的管道天然氣交易額約為 3.3 億美元,液化天然氣合約約為 1.7 億美元,2024 年總計 5 億美元。

  • Pretty similar ratio for 2025 at this point according to strip prices and there's lots of strip prices. You've got to watch and all of that, obviously. The $600 million breaks down to about $400 million on the gas trading around the pipeline contracts and about $200 million on the Cheniere LNG contract.

    根據條帶價格,目前與 2025 年的比例相當相似,且條帶價格有很多。顯然,你必須觀察這一切。這 6 億美元中,約 4 億美元用於管道合約的天然氣交易,約 2 億美元用於切尼爾液化天然氣合約。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang from Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Hello. Good morning. I want to go back and talk about the cost-cutting initiative because that's really a big part of the free cash flow expansion for the next few years. Just wanted to understand, is there any things virtually changing how the organizations being run or the milestones as being set to just give us a bit of comfort around your ability to hit on these targets like how much the breakdown between capital cost savings versus operating G&A savings? And maybe just give us a bit more color on how you are thinking about executing on those targets?

    你好。早安.我想回過頭來談談削減成本舉措,因為這實際上是未來幾年自由現金流擴張的重要組成部分。只是想了解一下,是否有任何因素實際上改變了組織的運作方式或設定的里程碑,讓我們對您實現這些目標的能力有一點信心,例如資本成本節省與營運 G&A 節省之間的細分是多少?您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您是如何考慮實現這些目標的?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'd say, Betty, if you step back and you look at our three buckets, the biggest bucket is obviously going to be the capital. The next one is going to be the LOE and then the next one is going to be the G&A. And when you look at immediate impact that you can address, it's kind of in the reverse order, which you can address the G&A first and foremost. And so there's a lot of confidence in those numbers. We've already gotten off to a pretty darn good start. As we mentioned in early January, we reduced the officer count by one-third.

    是的。我想說,貝蒂,如果你退一步看看我們的三個桶,最大的桶子顯然是資本。下一個將是 LOE,然後下一個將是 G&A。當您查看可以解決的直接影響時,其順序有點相反,您可以先解決 G&A 問題。因此人們對這些數字很有信心。我們已經有了一個相當好的開始。正如我們在一月初提到的那樣,我們將警官人數減少了三分之一。

  • We followed that on here recently. With some of the support staff as well. So I think the G&A piece is one that we're getting on to. And then some of the other ones take more time as you really get into how are we running the business, how are we leveraging synergies and how are you driving the cost out. And some of that's with changes in technology and things that are taking place as you're seeing across corporate America today with just data and infrastructure and software.

    我們最近在這裡關注了這一點。還有一些支援人員。因此,我認為 G&A 部分是我們正在討論的部分。而其他一些問題則需要更多時間,因為你真正了解我們如何經營業務,如何利用綜效,以及如何降低成本。其中一些是由於技術的變化和正在發生的事情,正如您今天在美國企業中看到的那樣,僅憑數據、基礎設施和軟體。

  • We spend a lot of money on those types of things. And so I mean it takes a little bit longer on some of those. And then the efficiencies on the capital program are the ones that also take a little bit of time. But we're dead set on, you know on the benchmarking side and what do we needed there to drive us up into top quartile on the cost performance.

    我們在這些事情上花了很多錢。所以我的意思是,其中一些問題需要更長的時間。然後資本計畫的效率也需要一點時間。但我們在基準測試方面已經下定決心,我們需要做些什麼才能使我們在成本績效方面達到前四分位。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And Betty, if I could just add a few things to that. Where did the $350 million target come from? I would emphasize it's at least $350 million and as John alluded to, it did come from some fairly rigorous both internal and external benchmarking efforts. So we didn't just make the number up. It's actually got some science behind it. And we do believe it is something that we should be able to attain at least. But some of that is going to take longer than just a year, and that's why we've set this up as a three-year program.

    是的。貝蒂,我可以補充幾點嗎?3.5億美元目標從何而來?我想強調的是,這個數字至少有 3.5 億美元,而且正如約翰所提到的,它確實來自一些相當嚴格的內部和外部基準測試。因此,我們並不是憑空捏造這個數字。它背後確實有一些科學根據。我們確實相信這是我們至少應該能夠實現的目標。但有些工作需要的時間不只一年,這就是我們將其設為三年計劃的原因。

  • We are not, at this point, providing a breakdown of that between Capital and LOE and G&A. But as John said, by the time we get to the end of the three-year period, most of it's going to come from Capital and then LOE and G&A will probably be competing for second and third, probably somewhat similar amounts. We do believe that the $350 million is probably on the conservative end. But we're going to be talking about this pretty much every quarter now for the next three years as we go through this process. So there's still a lot to unfold here, and we'll give more and more detail as we go through quarter-after-quarter, especially during 2025.

    目前,我們還沒有提供資本、LOE 和 G&A 之間的細目分類。但正如約翰所說,到三年期結束時,大部分資金將來自資本,然後 LOE 和 G&A 可能會爭奪第二和第三名,可能金額有些相似。我們確實認為 3.5 億美元可能還是比較保守的。但在接下來的三年裡,隨著這個過程的推進,我們幾乎每季都會討論這個問題。因此,這裡仍有許多內容有待展開,隨著每季的發展,尤其是在 2025 年,我們將提供越來越多的細節。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • That's great. I'll look forward to that – those metrics. My follow-up will be on the inventory duration that you see in the Permian as you start fully incorporating the Callon assets, what is your current assessment of your years of inventory life in both the Delaware and Midland today? Like how many years you have a similar quality development if you continue at the current eight rig pace?

    那太棒了。我期待著那些指標。我的後續問題是,當您開始全面整合 Callon 資產時,您在 Permian 看到的庫存持續時間,您對目前特拉華州和米德蘭的庫存壽命年限有何評估?如果按照目前的八人座鑽機速度繼續發展,多少年您能實現類似的品質發展?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Betty, if we look at that today, we're confident we can see through 2029 right into the next decade. And I think the track record and quite frankly, there's still a lot of stuff to characterize that we're working through. So we're confident that each year, we tend to add more locations than we drill. And that's something that we're working on, and you're starting to see a lot of the stuff results come in on Callon, which have been good. And so we're confident that we'll continue to add to that as is always the case. But we've got really, really good visibility to the end of this decade with the program that we're running today.

    是的。貝蒂,如果我們今天看一下,我們有信心可以看到 2029 年直至下一個十年。我認為,從過去的記錄來看,坦白說,還有很多事情需要我們努力解決。因此,我們有信心,每年新增的鑽探地點都會比鑽探地點多。這就是我們正在努力的事情,而且你已經開始看到 Callon 取得了很多成果,這些成果都是不錯的。因此,我們有信心,我們會像往常一樣繼續增加這數量。但透過我們今天運作的計劃,我們對這個十年末有了非常非常好的預見。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And again, if I could just add a bit to that. The reason why John alluded to 2029 is on the free cash flow per share chart that we provided in the supplement – and basically, what we've got embedded in the assumptions underneath that growing free cash flow per share. Is that Permian roughly holds flat through that time period, and we're very confident we can do that and probably beyond 2029.

    是的。再一次,如果我可以再補充一點的話。約翰之所以提到 2029 年,是因為我們在補充資料中提供了每股自由現金流圖表——基本上,我們已經將這一增長嵌入了每股自由現金流的假設中。二疊紀盆地在這段時間內大致保持平穩,我們非常有信心可以做到這一點,甚至可能延續到 2029 年以後。

  • We still have a lot of work to do on the Callon acreage and for that matter, on our own acreage and getting fully characterized all of the acres that we have and all of the potential landing zones. And we know that the market is wanting to hear more about that. We're working on that still kind of fully digesting the Callon acquisition in that regard, and we'll come back probably later this year with a more detailed look at our full view of what our portfolio looks like and inventory looks like in the Permian and how long that will last.

    我們在卡隆土地上還有很多工作要做,事實上,在我們自己的土地上,我們需要充分描述我們擁有的所有土地和所有潛在的著陸區。我們知道市場希望聽到更多有關該方面的資訊。我們正在努力完全消化對 Callon 的收購,可能會在今年稍後回來更詳細地了解我們的投資組合和二疊紀庫存的總體情況以及這種情況將持續多長時間。

  • But we're confident certainly beyond the – it will last beyond the range of that free cash flow chart.

    但我們確信,它肯定會超出自由現金流圖的範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bertrand Don from Truist.

    (操作員指示)來自 Truist 的 Bertrand Don。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hey, good morning, guys. Just following up on Slide 4, assuming you keep the 60% shareholder return program in place, which I believe is the plan, it looks like this could result in repurchasing a substantial portion of the shares. Just want to understand how we should think about that level of growing free cash flow versus the – probably the natural desire to maybe increase activity a little bit or look externally to grow through acquisitions? Just how do you balance those two? Thanks.

    嘿,大家早安。繼續投影片 4 的說明,假設您保留 60% 的股東回報計劃(我相信這是計劃),看起來這可能會導致回購大量股份。只是想了解我們應該如何看待不斷增長的自由現金流水平,以及可能稍微增加活動或透過收購來尋求外部成長的自然願望?那麼,怎麼樣才能平衡這兩者呢?謝謝。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So maybe I'll just take this opportunity to go through a number of the underlying assumptions on that free cash flow per share chart because I think they're important. It does assume that we capture and sustain $350 million of cost reductions. And frankly, 2025 and – through to 2027 free cash flow per share is driven primarily through that $350 million of cost reductions. It is after-tax cost reductions.

    是的。因此,也許我會藉此機會來看看每股自由現金流圖表上的一些基本假設,因為我認為它們很重要。它確實假設我們實現並維持 3.5 億美元的成本削減。坦白說,2025 年到 2027 年每股自由現金流主要來自於 3.5 億美元的成本削減。這是稅後成本減少。

  • And then obviously, 2028 begins Suriname Block 58 production volumes. And as I indicated, Permian volumes are held relatively flat through that five-year timeframe. Egypt though, is actually on decline similar to what we see in – we saw in 2024 and similar to what we're giving guidance to for 2025.

    顯然,蘇利南第 58 區塊將於 2028 年開始生產。正如我所指出的,二疊紀的產量在這五年的時間範圍內保持相對穩定。然而,埃及實際上正在衰落,類似於我們在 2024 年看到的情況,也類似於我們對 2025 年的預測。

  • And actually, it does not include the Egypt production volumes in that do not include any of what we're seeing on the gas side right now because that's kind of fresh pretty fresh data. It includes all ARO and decom spend. It includes exploration spend.

    實際上,它並不包括埃及的產量,也不包括我們目前在天然氣方面看到的任何產量,因為那是相當新的數據。其中包括所有 ARO 和退役開支。其中包括勘探支出。

  • As is clear on the chart, we assumed $300 million per year annually for the third-party trading activity in the Cheniere contract. We do stay and we build into that chart. Built into that is the 60% capital return framework.

    從圖表中可以清楚看出,我們假設每年切尼爾合約的第三方交易活動為 3 億美元。我們確實留下來並將其納入該圖表。其中包括 60% 的資本回報架構。

  • And to get to the answer of your – on your question, the underlying assumptions in there are that we would – in that five-year period, we would pay down $2.2 billion of debt that's just the – that's the term loan that's existing now, anything on the revolver, and it includes bond debt that is maturing during that timeframe. It would include $1.7 billion in dividends during that timeframe, and it would include share buybacks of around 52 million shares. We have a price expectation that's underlying in that chart that says we trade at a constant – a fixed multiple of free cash flow. So those with the free cash flow increasing over time, those 52 million shares are bought back at an average price over the five years of $33.65, so that's about $1.75 billion of share buybacks during the five-year period.

    為了回答您的問題,其中的基本假設是,在這五年內,我們將償還 22 億美元的債務,這些債務是現有的定期貸款,循環信貸中的任何債務,包括在此期間到期的債券債務。其中包括在此期間發放的 17 億美元股息,以及回購約 5,200 萬股股票。我們有一個價格預期,該圖表顯示我們以恆定的自由現金流倍數進行交易。因此,隨著自由現金流的增加,這 5,200 萬股股票在五年內以平均 33.65 美元的價格回購,因此五年期間的股票回購總額約為 17.5 億美元。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • That's helpful. I guess to the more to the question is if you're staring down this kind of free cash flow and if you don't see a price response in the shares – do you continue to buyback shares? Or do you shift your strategy towards either production growth or external growth through acquisition?

    這很有幫助。我想更確切的問題是,如果你正盯著這種自由現金流,卻沒有看到股票價格的反應──你會繼續回購股票嗎?或者您將策略轉向生產成長或透過收購實現外部成長?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean today, you're going to continue to buyback stock and as we believe in the asset base and you look at what's coming on and the free cash flow. So I think you continue to invest in yourself under those circumstances.

    我的意思是今天,你將繼續回購股票,因為我們相信資產基礎,並且你關注即將發生的事情和自由現金流。所以我認為在這種情況下你會繼續投資自己。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Understood. And then just shifting gears, I appreciate the ARO disclosure for about $100 million this year. Just wondering if you could walk us through how that changes over time. Maybe ARO and decommissioning costs over the next few years just directionally, if that's all you can share? Thanks.

    明白了。然後換個話題,我很欣賞今年約 1 億美元的 ARO 披露。只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下隨著時間的推移這種情況是如何變化的。如果您能分享這些的話,也許未來幾年的 ARO 和退役成本只是方向性的嗎?謝謝。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So the $100 million of ARO this year is – it's broken down. It's about $40 million in legacy Gulf of America abandonment it's about $30 million of North Sea, and it's about $30 million of onshore US That's the $100 million. And then in addition to that, we'll spend about $70 million this year on Fieldwood decom. I expect other than the North Sea, I expect most of those to stay relatively flat. You'll spike from time to time just based on activities.

    是的。所以今年的 1 億美元 ARO 是 – 它被分解了。其中,美國灣遺留的廢棄油氣田約有 4,000 萬美元,北海油氣田約有 3,000 萬美元,美國陸上油氣田約 3,000 萬美元,總共是 1 億美元。除此之外,我們今年還將花費約 7,000 萬美元用於 Fieldwood 的拆除。我預計,除北海以外,大部分地區都將保持相對穩定。您會不時根據活動出現高峰。

  • But I think the North Sea will grow over time. We've talked about the profile of that. I think we talked about that extensively on the third quarter call. And so the North Sea will grow and others will stay relatively flat here for the next four, five years.

    但我認為北海將會隨著時間的推移而成長。我們已經討論過它的概況。我想我們在第三季電話會議上已經詳細討論過這個問題。因此,未來四、五年內,北海的水位將會上升,而其他海域的水位將保持相對穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Deckelbaum from TD Cowen.

    TD Cowen 的大衛‧德克爾鮑姆 (David Deckelbaum)。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my questions, guys. I just wanted to follow-up just on the – I appreciate it. I just want to follow-up just for clarification on the Egypt gas agreement. Just to confirm, this pertains to new drilling activity. And I'm just wanting to get a sense of the comparative economics that you see relative to oil opportunities there? And how long the duration of this contract is for?

    謝謝你們回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一下——我很感激。我只是想進一步澄清一下埃及天然氣協議的情況。只是為了確認,這涉及新的鑽探活動。我只是想了解一下您所看到的與那裡的石油機會相關的比較經濟?這個合約期限是多久?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it is on new gas and it's set up, David, to where it's on par, right? We put gas on par with oil and that's why we're comfortable shifting the rigs. And quite frankly, Egypt short gas, we've been on decline on the gas side.

    不,它使用的是新氣體,而且它被設定到了與原先相同的水平,對嗎?我們將天然氣與石油放在同等重要的地位,這也是我們樂意轉移鑽井平台的原因。坦白說,埃及天然氣短缺,天然氣供應一直處於下滑狀態。

  • And so it truly is a win-win, and you're seeing that impact. So it puts gas on par with oil. It's on incremental gas above an agreed decline curve. And you're seeing the impacts of that new gas come into our weighted average price.

    因此這確實是一個雙贏的局面,而且你已經看到了它的影響。因此天然氣的地位與石油相當。這是關於高於約定的下降曲線的增量氣體。您將看到新天然氣對我們的加權平均價格的影響。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And I'd just add to that, that the – when we say it's on par with oil, that's on a full cycle basis. So it does have built into it – into that price. It has built into the anticipated costs of any infrastructure build-out that we might need to do if we were to be meaningfully successful in the gas exploration program.

    是的。我還要補充一點,當我們說它與石油相當時,是基於完整的週期基礎。因此它確實已經融入到價格之中。如果我們想在天然氣勘探計劃中取得重大成功,我們可能需要將其計入任何基礎設施建設的預期成本中。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • I guess it's still like – I guess my follow-up is just to confirm. I know in the past, we've looked at sort of logistical constraints in Egypt around kind of getting beyond the current rig count. So should we think of this like overall as the topline rig count and that you'll just be allocating between gas and oil opportunities here?

    我想這仍然像是——我想我的後續行動只是為了確認。我知道,過去我們曾研究過埃及在超越現有鑽井數量的後勤限制。那麼,我們是否應該將其視為總體的頂線鑽機數量,並且您只需在這裡分配天然氣和石油機會?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean I don't think so. I think we're in a good place today where we've been able to work the workover projects and recompletions down to kind of a steady state. With the 12 rigs we're running a day and the 20 workover rigs, we're in a pretty darn good place. That's not the constraint here would be topline rig count. It's really just going to be getting to the opportunities.

    我的意思是我不這麼認為。我認為我們今天處於一個很好的狀態,我們已經能夠將修井專案和重新完井工作進行到一種穩定的狀態。我們每天運行 12 台鑽機和 20 台修井機,我們的狀況非常好。這並不是這裡的限制,而是頂線鑽機數量。這實際上只是獲得機會而已。

  • And initially what we can do with the infrastructure, right? So what we need to do is do exactly what we're doing, bring on the low-hanging fruit, which we're going after. And then we need to get some of the nicer prospects drilled, which would give us some clues into what we want to do on the infrastructure in the future.

    最初我們可以利用基礎設施做什麼,對嗎?因此我們需要做的就是做好我們正在做的事情,實現我們想要的唾手可得的成果。然後,我們需要對一些更好的前景進行深入研究,這將為我們提供一些線索,讓我們知道未來我們想在基礎設施上做什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Neil Mehta。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes. Good morning, John and team. I just want to spend some time on Suriname, I guess, this year is more about securing some long lead time items and recognizing the operator probably has a little bit more color here. But what are you focused on, John, in terms of the milestones that, that development for 2025 specifically?

    是的。早上好,約翰和團隊。我只是想在蘇利南花一些時間,我想,今年更多的是為了確保一些長交貨期的項目,並認識到運營商在這裡可能會有更多的顏色。但是,約翰,就 2025 年的里程碑而言,您特別關注什麼發展呢?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. I mean I think we're off to a good start. As we said, capital first quarter is a little heavy just because of some of the long leads that we've already purchased some of the things with the FPSO and things. So we're tracking things well.

    不。我的意思是我認為我們已經有一個好的開始。正如我們所說,第一季的資本支出有點沉重,這是因為我們已經用 FPSO 和其他東西購買了一些長期庫存。所以我們追蹤事情進展順利。

  • Total is doing a fantastic job. We're digging in on the development plan and those things and continuing to look at the blocks future potential in terms of exploration and those things. So in general, it's going to be a year of good progress, and I'd say Total is off to a really good start and doing an excellent job.

    道達爾的表現非常出色。我們正在深入研究開發計劃和相關事項,並繼續在勘探和相關事項方面研究該區塊的未來潛力。總體而言,這將是取得良好進展的一年,我認為道達爾已經有了一個很好的開端,並且做得非常好。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • And then, John, on the Permian, you've talked about a pretty flattish profile in terms of the production here. Is there a scenario where you could accelerate production in that time horizon, do you feel like you have the inventory depth to do it? Or do you want to run this business at plateau?

    然後,約翰,關於二疊紀,您談到了這裡的生產情況相當平坦。是否存在您可以在該時間範圍內加速生產的情形,您是否覺得您有足夠的庫存深度來做到這一點?或者您想讓這項業務停滯不前?

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Neil, there's no doubt. I mean we – if you look at what we were doing last year with 11 rigs, it was at a much, much higher rate. And we feel like ratcheting down, running this at eight, we can run it relatively flat, which is the plan for more than just 2025. And so it puts us in a pretty good spot, and that's why we've kind of ratcheted down to this level.

    尼爾,毫無疑問。我的意思是,如果你看看我們去年用 11 台鑽孔機所做的工作,你會發現速度要高得多。我們覺得可以將這個數字降低到 8,這樣我們就可以相對平穩地運行,這不僅僅是 2025 年的計劃。所以,這讓我們處於一個相當有利的位置,這也是我們為什麼會降到這個水平的原因。

  • Clearly, there's inventory that you could ramp up – but quite frankly, we want to get in here and get into execution mode and deliver where we can drive some of the cost efficiencies out of the cost curve and really improve the free cash flow while running it flat.

    顯然,你可以增加庫存——但坦率地說,我們希望進入這裡並進入執行模式並實現我們可以從成本曲線中提高一些成本效率並在保持平穩的同時真正改善自由現金流。

  • Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. If I could just add a bit to that. The thing that we talked about last year, probably on the third quarter call was that strategically, we have a differentiated strategy around exploration. And with that type of a strategy and the investment that it requires the – you don't need to be growing the base production volume in the Permian or in Egypt.

    是的。如果我可以再補充一點的話。我們去年(可能是在第三季電話會議上)談到的事情是,從策略上講,我們圍繞著探索有一個差異化的策略。有了這種策略和所需的投資——你就不需要增加二疊紀或埃及的基礎產量。

  • If you're successful on the exploration side, the exploration provides the growth for the future we just have this period of time, 2025 to 2027 now that seems to be – if we're producing flat from our core foundational portfolio, then our free cash flow is going to be flat for three years, and that's part of the impetus around the cost initiatives was to get that free cash flow per share moving up during that timeframe as opposed to just waiting for Suriname growth to come across the hill in 2028.

    如果在勘探方面取得成功,那麼勘探將為未來帶來成長。我們現在只擁有這段時間,即 2025 年至 2027 年,這似乎是——如果我們的核心基礎投資組合的產量持平,那麼我們的自由現金流將在三年內保持平穩,這是成本計劃的部分動力,目的是讓每股自由現金流在這段時間內上升,而不是只是等待蘇利南的增長在 2028 年達到頂峰。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yes. That makes sense. And then driving your share count down in the process.

    是的。這很有道理。然後在此過程中減少您的份額數量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to John Christmann, CEO, for any further remarks.

    謝謝。今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將該計劃交還給執行長約翰·克里斯特曼 (John Christmann),以便做出進一步的評論。

  • John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thank you. Over the last several years, we have transformed the portfolio by building sustainability and duration in our two foundational assets, the Permian and Egypt. This will be complemented by our world-class development in Suriname with first oil expected in 2028. We have set meaningful cost reduction targets. We are confident we can deliver and see the potential to exceed these targets over time. This puts us on a path for substantial free cash flow growth in both the near and long-term. With that, I will turn it back to the operator.

    是的。謝謝。在過去幾年裡,我們透過在我們的兩個基礎資產——二疊紀和埃及——中建立永續性和持續時間,實現了投資組合的轉變。我們在蘇利南的世界級開發案將對此進行補充,預計第一批石油將於 2028 年產出。我們制定了有意義的成本削減目標。我們有信心實現這些目標,並且有潛力隨著時間的推移超越這些目標。這使我們走上了近期和長期大幅自由現金流成長的道路。說完這些,我就把它交還給接線生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

    女士們、先生們,感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。