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Operator
Operator
Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the APA Corporation's first quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
再會。感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 APA 公司 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Ben Rogers, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
現在,我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,財務高級副總裁兼財務主管 Ben Rogers。請繼續。
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Good morning, and thank you for joining us on APA Corporation's first quarter 2025 financial and operational results conference call. We will begin the call with an overview by CEO, John Christmann; Steve Riney, President and CFO, will then provide further color on our results and outlook. Tracey Henderson, Executive Vice President of Exploration, is also on the call and available to answer questions. We will start with prepared remarks and allocate the remainder of time to Q&A.
早安,感謝您參加 APA 公司 2025 年第一季財務與營運業績電話會議。我們將以執行長 John Christmann 的概述開始此次電話會議;總裁兼財務長 Steve Riney 將進一步介紹我們的業績和前景。勘探執行副總裁 Tracey Henderson 也出席了電話會議並回答問題。我們將從準備好的演講開始,然後將剩餘時間分配給問答環節。
In conjunction with yesterday's press release, I hope you've had the opportunity to review our financial and operational supplement, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.apacorp.com. Please note that we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the supplemental information provided on our website. Consistent with previous reporting practices, adjusted production numbers cited in today's call are adjusted to exclude noncontrolling interest in Egypt and Egypt tax barrels.
結合昨天的新聞稿,我希望您有機會查看我們的財務和營運補充文件,該文件可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.apacorp.com 上找到。請注意,我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們網站提供的補充資訊中可以找到這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異的對帳。與先前的報告慣例一致,今天電話會議上引用的調整後產量數字經過調整,排除了埃及的非控制權益和埃及稅收桶。
I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion will contain forward-looking estimates and assumptions based on our current views and reasonable expectations. However, a number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss on today's call. A full disclaimer is located with the supplemental information on our website.
我想提醒大家,今天的討論將包含基於我們當前觀點和合理預期的前瞻性估計和假設。然而,許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們今天電話會議上討論的結果大不相同。完整的免責聲明位於我們網站上的補充資訊中。
And with that, I will turn the call over to John.
說完這些,我會把電話轉給約翰。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, I will provide an overview of our first quarter results, share an update on our cost reduction initiatives and provide details on how significant improvements in operating performance are allowing us to protect our free cash flow outlook despite the current commodity price volatility.
早安,感謝您加入我們。今天,我將概述我們的第一季業績,分享我們成本削減舉措的最新進展,並詳細說明營運業績的顯著改善如何使我們能夠在當前大宗商品價格波動的情況下保護我們的自由現金流前景。
We delivered strong first quarter results with in-line production and lower capital investment relative to guidance. In the Permian, oil production was within our guidance range despite a 1,000 barrel per day larger impact from third-party and weather-related downtime that was anticipated when we gave guidance. Capital came in below guidance largely due to significant improvements in drilling performance.
我們第一季取得了強勁的業績,生產符合預期,資本投資低於預期。在二疊紀盆地,儘管第三方和天氣相關的停工對石油產量造成了每天 1,000 桶的較大影響(這在我們給出指導時就已經預料到了),但石油產量仍然在我們的指導範圍內。資本低於預期主要是由於鑽井性能的顯著改善。
In Egypt, we are highly encouraged by the prospectivity for natural gas. First quarter gas production exceeded guidance due to outperformance from our recent development program, along with continued efforts to optimize existing infrastructure. Despite shifting activity to gas, oil drilling is progressing well, and we continue to see positive results from our waterflood implementation programs, where we see additional running room with very favorable returns.
在埃及,我們對天然氣的前景感到非常鼓舞。由於我們最近的開發計劃表現出色,以及持續努力優化現有基礎設施,第一季的天然氣產量超過了預期。儘管活動轉向天然氣,但石油鑽探進展順利,我們繼續看到注水實施方案的積極成果,我們看到了額外的運作空間和非常有利的回報。
In the North Sea, volumes were ahead of guidance, primarily driven by strong operational efficiency at Beryl. On the exploration front, we announced our second discovery, Sockeye-2, in the Brookian play across our 325,000-acre footprint. The King Street-1 discovery in 2024 initially confirmed a working hydrocarbon system approximately 90 miles east of the Pikka development with high-quality pay in two separate hydrocarbon zones.
在北海,產量超出預期,主要得益於 Beryl 的強勁營運效率。在勘探方面,我們宣布了第二個發現,即位於布魯克岩區的 Sockeye-2,佔地 325,000 英畝。2024 年發現的 King Street-1 最初證實了在 Pikka 開發區以東約 90 英里處存在一個可運行的碳氫化合物系統,並在兩個獨立的碳氫化合物區中擁有高品質的油氣儲量。
Earlier this year, the Sockeye-2 well encountered 25 feet of net oil pay with an API oil gravity of approximately 28 degrees and a GOR of 720 across one consistent sand package, with seismic amplitude supporting the stratigraphic feature across 25,000 to 30,000 acres.
今年早些時候,Sockeye-2 井在一個一致的砂層中發現了 25 英尺厚的淨油層,API 石油重力約為 28 度,GOR 為 720,地震振幅支持 25,000 至 30,000 英畝的地層特徵。
We subsequently conducted a flow test that confirmed anticipated rock properties much better than regional analogs, including an average permeability of 100 to 125 millidarcies and a 20% porosity. Technical evaluation is underway to determine next steps for both the exploration and appraisal programs.
我們隨後進行了流動測試,證實了預期的岩石特性比區域類似物好得多,包括平均滲透率為 100 至 125 毫達西,孔隙率為 20%。目前正在進行技術評估,以確定勘探和評估計劃的下一步。
I will turn now to our cost reduction initiatives, where we are making significant strides. Commensurate with our simplified portfolio, we are committed to sustainably reducing our controllable spend across capital, LOE and overhead. Our overall progress on these initiatives has been impressive, giving us the confidence to increase both our 2025 targets for realized savings to $130 million and the annualized run rate savings by the end of the year to $225 million. Of note, capital efficiencies are getting captured much faster than we expected.
現在我將談談我們的成本削減舉措,我們正在取得重大進展。與我們簡化的投資組合相稱,我們致力於持續減少資本、LOE 和管理費用的可控支出。這些措施的整體進展令人印象深刻,讓我們有信心將 2025 年實現的節省目標提高到 1.3 億美元,並將年底的年化運行率節省目標提高到 2.25 億美元。值得注意的是,資本效率的提高速度比我們預期的要快得多。
Permian drilling efficiencies are the largest driver of capital savings. We are also making good progress on both completions and facilities. Overall, our objective is to achieve top quartile operational performance in the Permian, and we are confident we're on track to deliver that. In Egypt, we are also seeing savings in drilling costs driven by continued refinement of our operating practices.
二疊紀鑽井效率是節省資本的最大驅動力。我們在竣工和設施方面也取得了良好的進展。整體而言,我們的目標是在二疊紀盆地實現最高四分位的營運業績,我們有信心能夠實現這一目標。在埃及,透過不斷改進操作方法,我們也看到了鑽井成本的節省。
Moving to LOE. In the Permian, while we continue pursuing near-term opportunities to reduce certain operating costs, we are experiencing upward pressure on other cost areas in the short term. Material savings will come from structural changes to how we operate, including such items as water handling, compression and power procurement. We see opportunities for substantial long-term reductions in these costs, but achieving them will require extended execution time frames.
移至 LOE。在二疊紀盆地,雖然我們繼續尋求短期機會來降低某些營運成本,但短期內我們在其他成本領域面臨上行壓力。材料節省將來自於我們營運方式的結構性變化,包括水處理、壓縮和電力採購等方面。我們看到了長期大幅降低這些成本的機會,但實現這些成本需要延長執行時間。
On the international front, we have lowered Egypt operating costs through efforts like accelerating diesel reduction projects and optimizing equipment rentals, and in the North Sea, rationalized offshore activity as we transition to late life operations.
在國際方面,我們透過加速柴油減排專案和優化設備租賃等努力降低了埃及的營運成本,並在北海向後期營運過渡時合理化了海上活動。
On the G&A front, we are accelerating the capture of cost reductions, which is also contributing to our increased savings targets for 2025. These savings not only come from streamlining our organization, but are also realized in multiple areas of discretionary third-party spend. This momentum is expected to continue through the year and is proving to be sustainable as we simplify how we manage our assets.
在一般及行政管理方面,我們正在加快降低成本,這也有助於我們提高 2025 年的節省目標。這些節省不僅來自於精簡我們的組織,而且還來自多個可自由支配的第三方支出領域。預計這一勢頭將持續全年,隨著我們簡化資產管理方式,這一勢頭將被證明是可持續的。
As we continue to right size our organizational structure and work processes to better align with our current portfolio, we're further refining our operating model and leadership structure. Among other things, I would like to personally congratulate Ben Rodgers on being named Chief Financial Officer, effective next week. Many of you on the call have had the opportunity to interact with Ben over the past few years, and I am eager to work more closely with him as the new head of our finance pillar with a continued focus on managing our cost structure.
隨著我們繼續調整組織結構和工作流程以更好地適應我們目前的投資組合,我們正在進一步完善我們的營運模式和領導結構。除此之外,我還要親自祝賀本·羅傑斯被任命為首席財務官,該任命將於下週生效。在過去幾年中,電話會議上的許多人都有機會與本互動,我渴望與他作為我們財務支柱的新負責人進行更緊密的合作,並繼續專注於管理我們的成本結構。
In the same spirit, I would like to thank Steve and acknowledge his invaluable contributions and thought leadership over financial and strategic matters through the years. I look forward to his continued contributions as he brings the same rigor and focus to our operations and development organizations, where his impact has already made a difference since his promotion to President last year.
本著同樣的精神,我要感謝史蒂夫,並承認他多年來在財務和戰略問題上所做的寶貴貢獻和思想領導力。我期待他繼續做出貢獻,因為他將為我們的營運和發展組織帶來同樣的嚴謹和專注,自去年他升任總裁以來,他的影響力已經產生了變化。
Before discussing our updated 2025 outlook, let me comment on the asset sale we announced in our press release yesterday. Subsequent to the first quarter, we signed an agreement to monetize our New Mexico Permian properties for $608 million. These assets, which contributed approximately 5,000 barrels per day of oil production during the first quarter, represent less than 5% of both our Permian oil production and unconventional acreage position.
在討論我們更新的 2025 年展望之前,請允許我先評論一下我們昨天在新聞稿中宣布的資產出售。第一季之後,我們簽署了一項協議,以 6.08 億美元的價格將我們在新墨西哥州二疊紀盆地的資產貨幣化。這些資產在第一季貢獻了約 5,000 桶/天的石油產量,但僅占我們二疊紀石油產量和非常規油田面積的不到 5%。
We intend to allocate most of the proceeds from this divestiture toward debt reduction. This sale fits with the continued streamlining of our portfolio and reflects a full exit from New Mexico, allowing us to focus solely on the Texas side of the basin. The transaction is expected to close late in the second quarter. In keeping with prior practice, our forward guidance at this time continues to include these assets and will be adjusted post-close.
我們打算將此次資產剝離的大部分收益用於減債。此次出售符合我們持續精簡投資組合的策略,也體現了我們完全退出新墨西哥州,從而讓我們能夠專注於盆地的德克薩斯州一側。該交易預計將於第二季末完成。按照以往的做法,我們目前的前瞻性指引繼續包括這些資產,並將在收盤後進行調整。
Turning now to our revised outlook for the remainder of the year. Let me start by emphasizing the rapidly improving drilling efficiency we are seeing in the Permian. As we progress the integration of Callon, we reduced activity to eight drilling rigs late last year to sustain flat oil volumes in the Permian. Given the confidence in the operating efficiency gains, we can now hold oil volumes sustainably flat beyond 2025 with 6.5 rigs. Anticipating continual efficiency improvements, we are in the process of reducing to 6 rigs by the end of this quarter, and we'll reduce activity further if oil prices continue to deteriorate.
現在來談談我們對今年剩餘時間的修訂展望。首先,我要強調我們在二疊紀看到的鑽井效率的快速提升。隨著我們推進卡隆 (Callon) 的整合,去年年底我們將鑽井活動減少到 8 座,以維持二疊紀盆地的平穩石油產量。鑑於對營運效率提升的信心,我們現在可以透過 6.5 個鑽井平台在 2025 年以後保持石油產量的持續平穩。由於預計效率將持續提高,我們計劃在本季末將鑽井數量減少到 6 個,如果油價繼續下跌,我們將進一步減少活動。
We are also adjusting our frac fleets and completion schedule to better align with the lower rig count going forward. This will result in several wells for 2025 being turned in line later than originally planned, but we still expect to deliver oil volumes within our guidance range of 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per day. The combination of changes in completion timing and significant capital efficiency gains in the Permian is driving the bulk of our $150 million reduction in development capital guidance for the year.
我們也正在調整壓裂船隊和完井計劃,以更好地適應未來較低的鑽機數量。這將導致 2025 年的幾口油井投產時間比原計劃晚,但我們仍預計石油產量將在指導範圍內,即每天 125,000 至 127,000 桶。完工時間的變化和二疊紀盆地資本效率的顯著提高,導致我們今年的開發資本指引減少了 1.5 億美元。
In Egypt, with the success of the gas program and the softness of oil prices, we have shifted rig activity to be approximately one third gas focused. Our second quarter guidance contemplates continued growth to 470 million cubic feet per day gross gas volumes, and we anticipate ongoing strong performance in the second half of the year. Commensurate with this outlook, we expect our average realized gas price to continue to increase through the fourth quarter and into next year. This highlights how Egypt enhances the diversity of our portfolio and our capital allocation optionality.
在埃及,隨著天然氣計畫的成功和油價的疲軟,我們已將鑽井活動的約三分之一轉向天然氣。我們預計第二季天然氣總產量將繼續增長至每天 4.7 億立方英尺,並且我們預計下半年將繼續保持強勁表現。與此前景相符,我們預計平均實現天然氣價格將在第四季和明年繼續上漲。這凸顯了埃及如何增強我們投資組合的多樣性和資本配置的可選性。
The new gas price agreement has brought gas-focused development into economic parity with oil drilling at mid-cycle brent prices, making gas opportunities at today's oil strip more attractive on a relative basis. In addition, the production sharing contract in Egypt provides downside protection through the cost recovery mechanism, a natural hedge against lower Brent oil pricing.
新的天然氣價格協議使以天然氣為重點的開發與布蘭特原油價格中期週期下的石油鑽探在經濟上處於同等地位,使當今油田的天然氣機會相對更具吸引力。此外,埃及的產品分成合約透過成本回收機制提供了下行保護,這是對布蘭特原油價格下跌的自然對沖。
In closing, we are making substantial progress on our cost initiatives, particularly in Permian well costs and our overhead cost structure. This has allowed us to more than double our controllable spend savings targets for the year and reduce the capital intensity required to sustain longer-term production volumes. Together, these protect free cash flow in a volatile oil price environment. We will continue to balance the goals of sustaining and growing our business with returns to shareholders and further balance sheet strengthening.
最後,我們在成本計劃方面取得了實質進展,特別是在二疊紀油井成本和間接成本結構方面。這使我們能夠將今年的可控支出節省目標提高一倍以上,並降低維持長期生產所需的資本強度。這些措施共同保護了油價波動環境下的自由現金流。我們將繼續在維持和發展業務的目標與股東回報以及進一步加強資產負債表之間取得平衡。
Our focus on cost reductions and capital efficiency for the near term will underpin free cash flow through 2027, ahead of Suriname first oil in 2028, which will significantly accelerate further growth. We believe that the result in free cash flow growth profile, coupled with our high-quality exploration portfolio, is differentiated from many of our peers and will drive growth in long-term shareholder value.
我們近期將重點放在降低成本和提高資本效率,這將為 2027 年的自由現金流奠定基礎,領先 2028 年蘇利南首次開採石油,這將顯著加速進一步的成長。我們相信,自由現金流成長狀況加上我們高品質的勘探組合,與許多同行有所不同,並將推動長期股東價值的成長。
And with that, I will turn the call over to Steve.
說完這些,我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, John. I will begin my remarks with an overview of our first quarter results and then provide further commentary on our cost reduction initiatives and our updated plans for the rest of this year.
謝謝你,約翰。我將首先概述我們的第一季業績,然後進一步評論我們的成本削減舉措和今年剩餘時間的最新計劃。
For the first quarter, under generally accepted accounting principles, APA reported consolidated net income of $347 million or $0.96 per diluted common share. As usual, these results include items that are outside of core earnings, the most significant of which was a $111 million after-tax gain on the extinguishment of debt and a $76 million charge to increase our deferred tax liability in the UK due to the most recent increase in the energy profits levy. Excluding these and other smaller items, adjusted net income for the first quarter was $385 million or $1.06 per share.
根據公認會計原則,APA 報告第一季合併淨收入為 3.47 億美元,即每股攤薄普通股 0.96 美元。與往常一樣,這些結果包括核心收益之外的項目,其中最重要的是債務清償後的 1.11 億美元稅後收益,以及由於最近能源利潤稅增加而增加的 7,600 萬美元英國遞延稅負債費用。除這些和其他較小的項目外,第一季調整後的淨收入為 3.85 億美元,即每股 1.06 美元。
Let me start my comments on first quarter highlights with a couple of items from Egypt. I want to specifically recognize the significant progress that the Egyptian government has made towards normalizing our past due receivables. APA generated $126 million of free cash flow in the first quarter, but this does not include the progress we made on past due balances during the quarter, and that progress has now continued into the second quarter. Today, our past due balances in Egypt are the lowest they have been since the end of 2022.
讓我先從埃及的幾個事件開始我對第一季亮點的評論。我要特別讚揚埃及政府在規範逾期應收帳款方面取得的重大進展。APA 在第一季產生了 1.26 億美元的自由現金流,但這不包括我們在本季度在逾期餘額方面取得的進展,而且這一進展現在已經延續到第二季度。如今,我們在埃及的逾期餘額已達到 2022 年底以來的最低水準。
Also in Egypt, gas development is going very well, and increasing production volumes have led to an average realized gas price of $3.19 in the quarter, exceeding our guidance of $3.15. This is up from our fourth quarter average of $2.97. The combined benefit of substantial recent progress on payments and the new gas pricing agreement have been critical factors in a decision to maintain our planned activity levels in Egypt, albeit with a shift to more gas-focused drilling.
此外,在埃及,天然氣開發進展順利,產量的增加導致本季平均實現天然氣價格為 3.19 美元,超過了我們預期的 3.15 美元。這高於我們第四季度的平均 2.97 美元。近期付款方面取得的重大進展和新的天然氣定價協議的綜合效益是我們決定維持在埃及的計劃活動水平的關鍵因素,儘管我們的鑽探活動將更加側重於天然氣。
First quarter upstream capital came in quite a bit below guidance despite some accelerated spend in Suriname. This was a direct result of the outstanding operational results delivered by our Permian drilling teams, where drilling efficiencies have seen step change improvements compared to 2024.
儘管蘇利南的支出增加,但第一季上游資本仍遠低於預期。這是我們二疊紀鑽井團隊出色營運績效的直接結果,與 2024 年相比,鑽井效率有了顯著提高。
Let me now turn to progress on our cost reduction efforts. As a reminder, our efforts to rationalize our cost structure began almost a year ago, with a primary objective to drive sustainable cost savings for the long term. When we spoke about these initiatives on the February earnings call, we did not provide a breakdown of targeted savings between the various cost categories.
現在讓我來談談我們降低成本努力的進展。提醒一下,我們合理化成本結構的努力大約在一年前就開始了,主要目標是推動長期可持續的成本節約。當我們在二月的收益電話會議上談論這些舉措時,我們並沒有提供各個成本類別之間的目標節省明細。
We knew that overhead would be the largest initial contributor because that was the logical first target. However, we expected capital would be the largest contributor in the long term. Given the progress achieved through Permian drilling efficiencies, savings on capital will now provide the vast majority of our controllable spend reductions this year.
我們知道管理費用將是最初最大的貢獻者,因為這是合乎邏輯的首要目標。然而,我們預計從長遠來看,資本將是最大的貢獻者。鑑於二疊紀鑽井效率的進展,資本節省將提供我們今年可控支出削減的絕大部分。
Since the beginning of the year, we have captured an impressive $800,000 in cost savings per well in the Permian, and we still see additional room for improvement going forward. We have made significant improvements, including slim hole drilling, modifying casing stream designs and utilizing fit-for-purpose directional tools that have considerably shortened our drilling durations. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we see additional improvements that are expected to drive further momentum into 2026.
自今年年初以來,我們在二疊紀盆地每口井的成本節省達到了驚人的 80 萬美元,而且我們仍然看到未來還有進一步改進的空間。我們已經取得了重大改進,包括小井眼鑽井、修改套管流設計和使用適合用途的定向工具,這些都大大縮短了我們的鑽井時間。展望今年剩餘時間,我們將看到更多改進,預計這些改進將推動 2026 年的進一步發展。
Completions and facilities costs also represent large reduction opportunities for us, and we are beginning to see progress. As we continue to optimize economic resource recovery, a number of development patterns will shift toward a combination of denser well spacing per DSU with smaller fracs, leading to additional drilling cost savings due to fewer rig moves, as well as lower completion costs due to the smaller frac loading.
竣工和設施成本也為我們帶來了巨大的削減機會,我們已經開始看到進展。隨著我們不斷優化經濟資源回收率,許多開發模式將轉向每個鑽井單元 (DSU) 的更密集的井距與更小的壓裂面積的組合,從而由於鑽機移動次數減少而節省額外的鑽井成本,並且由於壓裂負荷較小而降低完井成本。
On the facility side, through 2023 and 2024 and into 2025, we built a number of new facilities in areas where drilling activity was going to be growing. For the remainder of this year and into 2026, we will be much more dependent on brownfield modifications instead of new builds, resulting in additional capital savings relative to the recent past.
在設施方面,到 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年,我們將在鑽井活動將會增加的地區建造許多新設施。在今年剩餘時間和到 2026 年,我們將更依賴棕地改造而不是新建,從而相對於近期節省更多資本。
On LOE, as John mentioned, our original targets contemplated an aggregate level of cost reduction that is proving challenging to achieve. While we are making good progress in some areas, we are also seeing some underlying pressure in others. This includes items like compression and water disposal, where we have experienced some inflationary pressures. As a result, we expect more meaningful progress on LOE savings will likely come later this year and beyond.
關於 LOE,正如約翰所提到的,我們最初的目標是降低整體成本,但事實證明這很難實現。雖然我們在某些領域取得了良好進展,但我們也看到其他領域存在一些潛在的壓力。其中包括壓縮和水處理等項目,我們在這些項目上經歷了一些通膨壓力。因此,我們預計今年稍後及以後在 LOE 節省方面可能會取得更有意義的進展。
Finally, on overhead costs, while our initial focus centered primarily on headcount rationalization, we are now also looking to streamline some of our more complex workflows. In particular, we are eliminating lower value activities, standardizing and simplifying routine work processes, expanding the use of more efficient technologies and broadening leadership spans of control. While some of these efforts will take more time to implement, we are progressing faster than previously anticipated, which is also contributing to our increased 2025 savings targets.
最後,關於管理費用,雖然我們最初的重點主要集中在員工人數合理化上,但我們現在也尋求簡化一些更複雜的工作流程。具體來說,我們正在消除低價值活動,標準化和簡化日常工作流程,擴大更有效率技術的使用,並擴大領導層的控制範圍。雖然其中一些努力需要更多時間來實現,但我們的進展速度比之前預期的要快,這也有助於我們提高 2025 年的節省目標。
Moving now to our outlook for this year. John touched on a number of topics related to our forward outlook, so I will comment on a few other items. The progress we have made on reducing controllable spending capital and overhead more than doubles our expected realized cost savings in 2025 despite increases in LOE.
現在來看看我們對今年的展望。約翰談到了許多與我們未來展望相關的話題,因此我將對其他一些問題發表評論。儘管 LOE 有所增加,但我們在減少可控支出資本和管理費用方面取得的進展使我們預計 2025 年實現的成本節約增加了一倍以上。
We've updated our guidance to reflect these changes while purposefully segregating activity reductions, deferrals and other items, excluding them from our accounting for savings on controllable spend. While these types of items will support free cash flow in 2025, we want to clearly distinguish sustainable reductions from timing-related differences for the year. Please refer to our supplement for further details.
我們已更新我們的指導以反映這些變化,同時有意分離活動減少、延遲和其他項目,將它們排除在可控支出節省的會計之外。雖然這些類型的項目將在 2025 年支持自由現金流,但我們希望明確區分可持續的減少與當年與時間相關的差異。請參閱我們的補充資料以了解更多詳細資訊。
In Egypt, with over a third of this year's activity geared towards gas, we expect gross gas volumes to continue growing from first quarter levels. Despite some planned downtime due to plant maintenance, we expect gross gas volumes in the fourth quarter to be the highest of the year, and we anticipate exiting the year around 500 million cubic feet per day.
在埃及,今年超過三分之一的活動與天然氣有關,我們預計天然氣總產量將繼續從第一季的水平增長。儘管由於工廠維護而有一些計劃停機時間,但我們預計第四季度的天然氣總產量將達到今年的最高水平,並且我們預計今年的天然氣產量將達到每天 5 億立方英尺左右。
Gas price realizations will steadily increase in line with this trajectory from approximately $3.40 in the second quarter to $3.80 in the fourth quarter, putting us at the upper end of our prior guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per Mcf for the full year.
天然氣實現價格將按照這一軌跡穩步上升,從第二季度的約 3.40 美元上漲至第四季度的 3.80 美元,這將使我們全年價格達到我們先前預測的 3.40 美元/千立方英尺至 3.50 美元/千立方英尺的上限。
Turning now to US gas marketing, a part of our business that has proven particularly profitable for us over the last few years. As a reminder, APA sells all Permian gas production in-basin and holds approximately 750 million BTUs a day of firm capacity on various gas pipelines. Every day, we buy gas at Waha and transport that gas to the Gulf Coast, where it is sold at various price points. Based on current Waha differentials, this is a very profitable activity. Income generated from our firm capacity contracts, along with our LNG sales contract with Cheniere, are reflected in our guidance and financials as purchased oil and gas sales and costs.
現在來談談美國天然氣行銷,這是我們業務的一部分,在過去幾年中,它為我們帶來了特別大的利潤。提醒一下,APA 在盆地內銷售所有二疊紀天然氣產量,並在各個天然氣管道上擁有每天約 7.5 億 BTU 的固定容量。我們每天都在瓦哈購買天然氣,然後將其運送到墨西哥灣沿岸,在那裡以不同的價格出售。根據目前的 Waha 差異,這是一項非常有利可圖的活動。我們從固定產能合約以及與 Cheniere 簽訂的液化天然氣銷售合約中產生的收入反映在我們的指導和財務狀況中,作為購買的石油和天然氣的銷售額和成本。
APA has entered into basis swap agreements for the second through fourth quarters of 2025 on roughly 2/3 of our firm transport capacity. Including actual profits in the first quarter, this locked in approximately $450 million of income for the year. Our 2025 guidance for income from third-party oil and gas marketing has been updated to $575 million, inclusive of these basis hedges.
APA 已就我們公司約 2/3 的運輸運力簽訂了 2025 年第二季至第四季的基礎互換協議。加上第一季的實際利潤,這將鎖定全年約 4.5 億美元的收入。我們對 2025 年第三方石油和天然氣行銷收入的預期已更新為 5.75 億美元,其中包括這些基礎對沖。
Lastly, I would like to quickly touch on some changes we have made to our upstream capital and free cash flow definitions around the treatment of ARO and leasehold acquisitions. Previously, cash ARO expense and leasehold acquisitions were included in our definition of upstream capital. Starting in 2025, we have removed both ARO and leasehold from upstream capital, and are now including these as individual line items in our reconciliation to free cash flow.
最後,我想快速談談我們對上游資本和自由現金流定義在處理 ARO 和租賃收購方面所做的一些改變。此前,現金 ARO 費用和租賃收購包含在我們對上游資本的定義中。從 2025 年開始,我們從上游資本中移除了 ARO 和租賃權,現在將它們作為單獨的項目納入我們與自由現金流的對帳中。
Note that these changes have no impact on how we report free cash flow, and we have provided the new definitions, along with a reconciliation of the changes, in our supplement. Please reach out to our IR team if you require any clarification.
請注意,這些變更對我們報告自由現金流的方式沒有影響,我們在補充報告中提供了新的定義以及變更的對帳。如果您需要任何說明,請聯絡我們的 IR 團隊。
And with that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.
說完這些,我將把電話轉給接線生進行問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
John Freeman, Raymond James.
約翰‧弗里曼、雷蒙‧詹姆斯。
John Freeman - Analyst
John Freeman - Analyst
Thanks. I wanted to dig in a little bit more to the cost savings that you all achieved already on the controllable spend. So the original guide that you all gave last quarter of getting down that $3.7 billion or $350 million run rate savings by the year-end '27. Given the fact that you've basically doubled what you thought you were going to achieve this year, do we just think of it as that original sort of time line that you all showed last quarter, it just got pulled forward, but you're not necessarily increasing the absolute target? Like the $350 million run rate savings by year-end '27 is being achieved quicker, but is there any thought of that number potentially moving higher?
謝謝。我想更深入地了解你們在可控支出方面已經實現的成本節約。因此,你們在上個季度給出的原始指引是到 2027 年底將節省 37 億美元或 3.5 億美元的運行率。鑑於您基本上將今年預期實現的目標翻了一番,我們是否可以認為它只是您上個季度展示的原始時間表,只是提前了,但您不一定會增加絕對目標?就像 2027 年底前 3.5 億美元的運行率節省目標正在更快實現,但有沒有想過這個數字可能會更高?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, John, you're exactly right. I mean at this point, we're way ahead of schedule. Obviously, now we've gone from 125 at year-end on a run rate basis to $225 million. So we're well on our way. I do anticipate that number will get raised at a later date. But today, that's -- we're going to leave that intact and keep working away.
是的,約翰,你說得完全正確。我的意思是,目前我們已經遠遠提前於計劃了。顯然,現在我們的營業額已經從年底的 1.25 億美元成長到了 2.25 億美元。所以我們進展順利。我確實預計這個數字以後會提高。但今天,我們將維持現狀不變,繼續努力。
The other thing of note is, if you look at in-year savings, we've gone from $60 million in year to now $130 million in year. So we're making really, really good progress. And I do anticipate at some point in the future, you'll see that $350 million number go up. But today, we're going to leave it intact.
另一件值得注意的事情是,如果你看一下年度節省額,我們已經從每年 6000 萬美元增加到現在的每年 1.3 億美元。所以我們正在取得非常非常好的進展。我確實預計在未來的某個時候,你會看到 3.5 億美元這個數字上升。但今天,我們將保留它的原樣。
John Freeman - Analyst
John Freeman - Analyst
Understood. And then my follow-up question, in the Permian, where you've talked about being able to now go from what used to be 8 rigs needed to hold US production flat, you can now do with 6 rigs -- I'm sorry, with 6.5 rigs. Would you all plan to go down to 6 rigs is -- do I think of it as that's slightly left in all -- you basically can't hold production flat at that level? Or do you think that at some point later this year, you're going to have additional efficiency gains and that 6.5 now becomes 6 to hold production flat? Just a little more color on that.
明白了。然後我的後續問題是,在二疊紀盆地,您談到現在美國石油產量需要從過去 8 個鑽機減少到 6 個鑽機——抱歉,是 6.5 個鑽機。你們是否都計劃將鑽機數量降至 6 台——我是否認為這總體上還剩下一點點——你們基本上無法將產量保持在該水平?或者您是否認為在今年稍後的某個時候,您將獲得額外的效率提升,並且 6.5 現在變成 6 以保持產量平穩?只需再添加一點顏色即可。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, That's exactly where we are. We came into the year with 8 rigs. Today, we think we can hold the 125,000 to 127,000 barrels a day in the Permian flat with 6.5, but we're seeing signs of further efficiencies, which is why we're confident we can go ahead and drop 2 rigs and go on down to 6, which we believe we will hold it flat. And quite frankly, we think we can do so well into 2026.
是的,這正是我們所處的位置。今年我們已擁有 8 台鑽孔機。今天,我們認為我們可以將二疊紀盆地的日產量保持在 125,000 至 127,000 桶的水平,維持在 6.5 桶的水平,但我們看到了進一步提高效率的跡象,這就是為什麼我們有信心可以繼續減少 2 個鑽機數量,並繼續減少到 6 個,我們相信我們將保持這個水平。坦白說,我們認為我們可以在 2026 年取得好成績。
John Freeman - Analyst
John Freeman - Analyst
That's great. Thanks, John. I appreciate it.
那太棒了。謝謝,約翰。我很感激。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Doug Leggate, Wolf Research.
道格‧萊格特(Doug Leggate),沃爾夫研究公司。
Doug Leggate - Analyst
Doug Leggate - Analyst
Thank you guys. Sorry, John, to pound on this topic the other John just asked about. But I'm just wondering, when we think about the pace of the cost delivery that you're now -- especially the capital side of it. What had you originally assumed when you gave us the $350 million in terms of rig cadence? I guess, the $800,000 per well that you talked about, I mean, were those in your original $350 million numbers? Or is this a moving target?
謝謝你們。抱歉,約翰,我再次強調另一個約翰剛才問到的這個話題。但我只是想知道,當我們考慮您現在的成本交付速度時 - 特別是資本方面。當您以鑽機節奏向我們提供 3.5 億美元時,您最初有何假設?我想,您所說的每口井 80 萬美元,是您最初的 3.5 億美元數字中的數字嗎?或者這是一個移動的目標?
I'm trying to get a feel for who you're not willing to give us a new number today. What was embedded in that original target versus what you've done so far as quickly as you've done it?
我想知道為什麼你今天不願意給我們一個新號碼。最初的目標包含了什麼內容,以及您迄今為止所做的事情和速度如何?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I mean I'd say we set aggressive targets, the $125 million that we plan to capture by year-end, we set some aggressive targets, and you saw that in the LOE numbers. Obviously, the overhead was a piece. We said the capital was the biggest piece, but we thought that would come later and it's coming earlier. So we knew we could drive cost down. So I would say those savings were in that $350 million. But they're just coming faster. And we think there's more to do.
是的,我的意思是我們設定了積極的目標,我們計劃在年底前實現 1.25 億美元,我們設定了一些積極的目標,您可以在 LOE 數字中看到這一點。顯然,開銷是一塊。我們說資本是最重要的部分,但我們原以為它會稍後到來,但它來得更早。所以我們知道我們可以降低成本。所以我想說這些節省就在那 3.5 億美元裡。但它們的速度正在加快。我們認為還有很多事情要做。
Doug Leggate - Analyst
Doug Leggate - Analyst
Okay. So my follow-up is I wanted to take advantage of Tracey being on the call and ask her a question about Alaska. I know it's very early days, but -- you've got a couple of wells now that -- they're fairly well apart and some pretty good analogs if you look at Pikka flow rates from Willow, when it was eventually tested, those wells, as I understand were fractured, yours was not. So can you offer any insight as to what you're thinking in terms of resource size?
好的。因此,我的後續行動是,我想利用 Tracey 參加電話會議的機會向她詢問阿拉斯加的問題。我知道現在還為時過早,但是——您現在已經有幾口井了——它們相距相當遠,如果您查看 Willow 的 Pikka 流量,您會發現它們之間存在一些非常好的類似物,當最終進行測試時,據我所知,那些井是裂縫性的,而您的井不是。那麼,您能否就資源規模方面提供一些見解呢?
And if I can add a part B, this is a bit of an obtuse one. I think there's a concern that, okay, here we go, we've got another major capital development that Apache has 50% of. How would you plan on funding it? Would you ever consider monetizing part of Suriname to fund Alaska?
如果我可以添加 B 部分,那麼這部分就有點難以理解了。我認為存在一個擔憂,那就是,好吧,我們又有了一個重大資本開發項目,Apache 擁有 50% 的股份。您計劃如何為其籌措資金?您是否考慮過將蘇利南的部分地區貨幣化來資助阿拉斯加?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, Doug, if you step back, we've got a 300 -- and I'll let Tracey chime in in a couple of minutes, but we've got 325,000 acres estate lands. With the King Street discovery last year, it did two things. It proved we had high-quality reservoir sands 90 miles east of Pikka. We went back to Sockeye this year because we had the best seismic image over there. It is not the largest feature by any means, but it was the one we felt pretty confident would test geologic, geophysical model and as well as the whole acreage position. Obviously, it came in, but I'd say the surprise in there was the quality of the reservoir sands, which are actually better than expected.
好吧,道格,如果你退一步來說,我們有 300 英畝——我會讓特蕾西在幾分鐘後加入進來,但我們有 325,000 英畝的莊園土地。去年在 King Street 的發現帶來了兩件事。事實證明,我們在皮卡以東 90 英里處擁有高品質的儲層砂。我們今年回到了 Sockeye,因為那裡有最好的地震圖像。無論如何,它不是最大的特徵,但我們非常有信心它可以測試地質、地球物理模型以及整個面積的位置。顯然,它進來了,但我想說的是,儲層砂的品質實際上比預期的要好。
So it's a material discovery. It's high-quality oil, low GOR, 720, but it's one continuous package of sand, 20% porosity. But the big kicker in here is the permeability. It was 100 to 125 millidarcies, which is quite a bit better than the developments that are taking place.
所以這是一個重大發現。這是高品質石油,氣油比低,為 720,但它是一整塊連續的砂體,孔隙率為 20%。但這裡最大的問題是滲透性。它是 100 到 125 毫達西,比正在發生的發展要好得多。
I think the thing you look at now, a big portion of our acreage, we are in the process of reprocessing that seismic. And quite frankly, the largest prospect sits on the area we are reprocessing. So we're not going to be going at this hard on the capital side. We're going to be really smart about how we appraise and quite frankly, what we would drill next on the exploration side. But if you look at timing on your second part B question, you look at timing on Suriname, you're going to have Suriname coming on well before you'd have meaningful capital spend here.
我認為您現在看到的,我們土地的很大一部分,我們正在重新處理地震。坦白說,最大的礦藏位於我們正在進行再處理的區域。因此我們不會在資本方面做這麼大的努力。我們將非常明智地進行評估,坦白說,我們將在勘探方面進行下一步鑽探。但如果你看一下第二部分 B 問題的時間安排,你看一下蘇利南的時間安排,你會發現蘇利南的到來遠早於你在這裡進行有意義的資本支出之前。
So Tracey, you can jump in on the reservoir quality a little bit more about it geologically.
因此,Tracey,您可以從地質學角度進一步了解儲層品質。
Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President - Exploration
Tracey Henderson - Executive Vice President - Exploration
Sure, John. Thanks. One of the things we're most encouraged by really is the reservoir quality, as John mentioned, and where we know we have something to work with. Our permeabilities are easily 2 times to 4 times better than analog fields to the west. And that's critical for how we go about developing fields. So our focus right now is on reprocessing the data, as John said, but also developing an appraisal strategy which will include things like number of wells, development scenarios.
當然,約翰。謝謝。正如約翰所提到的,最讓我們感到鼓舞的事情之一就是儲層質量,我們知道我們可以利用它。我們的滲透率比西部的模擬油田高出 2 倍到 4 倍。這對於我們如何開髮油田至關重要。因此,正如約翰所說,我們現在的重點是重新處理數據,同時也制定評估策略,其中包括油井數量、開發方案等內容。
You saw in the press release, the well flowed 2,700 barrels a day unstimulated, and that was limited by tubulars. So we'll be looking at things like potential for waterflood, which is a possibility given the reservoir quality that we have. Horizontal wells. Those will all be things that we need to think about and what development scenarios will look like.
您在新聞稿中看到,該油井未經刺激的日產量為 2,700 桶,並且受到管柱的限制。因此,我們將研究諸如注水的可能性之類的因素,考慮到我們現有的儲層質量,注水是有可能的。水平井。這些都是我們需要思考的事情以及發展場景會是什麼樣子。
So we've got a lot to do to frame the path forward. And the appraisal program will be what will ultimately inform how we -- what we will come out with in terms of size of the resource here. And so we've got a lot of work to do, but we are very excited.
因此,我們還有很多工作要做,以規劃前進的道路。評估計畫最終將告訴我們這裡的資源規模到底是多少。因此我們還有很多工作要做,但我們非常興奮。
One of the limiting factors that we have really is winter access, so we really need to be measured in how we plan our activities. And the work we're going to be focused on in the near term is going to be seismic reprocessing and looking at appraisal strategies. And we need to do that work, so we understand how we want to appraise and look at development scenarios going forward.
我們面臨的一個限制因素是冬季的出行,因此我們確實需要衡量我們如何規劃活動。我們近期的重點工作是地震再處理和評估策略的研究。我們需要做這項工作,這樣我們才能了解如何評估和看待未來的發展情景。
Doug Leggate - Analyst
Doug Leggate - Analyst
I'll give everyone a giggle here when I would think your partner, Bill Armstrong, has described the overlooked areas on the -- on that booking plays the next Guyana. So we're watching with a lot of interest. We'll see. Anyway, thanks very much and you guys. I appreciate the answer.
當我想到你的伴侶比爾阿姆斯壯 (Bill Armstrong) 描述了那場預訂下一場圭亞那比賽中被忽視的區域時,我會讓每個人都笑一笑。因此我們非常感興趣地觀察著。我們將拭目以待。無論如何,非常感謝你們。我很感謝你的回答。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Doug.
謝謝你,道格。
Operator
Operator
Scott Gruber, Citigroup.
花旗集團的史考特‧格魯伯。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Yes, good morning. I wanted to come back to the asset sale. As part of the motivation to sell the New Mexico position beyond the non-op aspect, there's been -- part of the motivation there where you're seeing across the rest of the Permian portfolio, it's been about a year since the Callon closed, you altered the development program there. So is that acreage surprising of the positive? Or are the drilling efficiencies making legacy acreage even more attractive? Maybe it's both? Just some color there.
是的,早安。我想重新回到資產出售的話題。作為出售新墨西哥州資產動機的一部分,除了非營運方面之外,還有——在那裡看到的其餘二疊紀投資組合的部分動機,自從卡隆關閉以來已經過去了大約一年,你改變了那裡的開發計劃。那麼,這種植面積的成長是否令人意外呢?或者鑽井效率會讓傳統油田變得更具吸引力?也許兩者皆有?那裡只是一些顏色。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, if you step back on the New Mexico assets, what we had remaining in Mexico is good rock, but it's very small. It's less than 5% of our production. It's less than 5% of -- our acreage is scattered. Some of it was non-op for us. It was a package that we didn't have to sell, but we put in the market. It was highly contested. And so a lot of interest, and quite frankly, we felt like because of the price, it made sense to transact. We feel like we got full price. Obviously, Permian Resources is happy with it as well, but we think it's a good transaction especially for us, and the proceeds are going to predominantly go to debt paydown.
是的,如果你回顧新墨西哥州的資產,我們在墨西哥剩下的雖然是優質岩石,但數量非常少。這還不到我們產量的5%。我們的土地分佈很分散,不到5%。其中一些對我們來說是無法操作的。這是一個我們不必出售但投放到市場的套裝。這場爭論十分激烈。因此引起了很多人的興趣,而且坦白說,我們覺得考慮到價格,進行交易是合理的。我們感覺就像拿到了全價。顯然,二疊紀資源公司對此也感到滿意,但我們認為這是一筆很好的交易,特別是對我們來說,所得款項將主要用於償還債務。
Ben, anything you want to add?
本,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Yeah. I'll just say we -- outside of the strategic reasons for getting out of New Mexico, you think about value here, and as John said, a very competitive process. And when you look at it, a bunch of different valuation ways to look at it, but kind of in the mid-to-high fives on an EBITDA multiple, really good value for us. We'll use the proceeds to pay down debt and focus on the Texas side of the basin.
是的。我只想說,除了離開新墨西哥州的戰略原因之外,還要考慮價值,正如約翰所說,這是一個競爭非常激烈的過程。當你看它時,有很多不同的估值方式來看待它,但 EBITDA 倍數處於中高五倍,對我們來說真的很有價值。我們將利用所得款項償還債務,並專注於盆地的德克薩斯州一側。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I'd just add to that that this is an area that really got sparing capital allocated to it for the last several years. And it's 1 that just didn't compete with the core other Permian Basin assets that we have in the Delaware and in the Southern Midland Basin for capital.
是的。我想補充一點,過去幾年來,這個領域確實獲得了少量的資金分配。而且它根本不會與我們在特拉華州和南米德蘭盆地的其他核心二疊紀盆地資產競爭資本。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Yeah, so I was curious whether the rest of the portfolio is getting better. And maybe turning to the LOE side of things. You mentioned the need to take some longer-term initiatives to address some of the inflation there in compression and water. Just some more color on those initiatives, whether there's CapEx associated and what kind of time line should we think about to see the benefit?
是的,所以我很好奇投資組合的其餘部分是否會變得更好。並且可能轉向 LOE 方面的事情。您提到需要採取一些長期措施來解決壓縮和水方面的通貨膨脹問題。對這些措施進行更詳細的說明,是否涉及資本支出,以及我們應該考慮什麼樣的時間表才能看到效益?
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, if I could just maybe step back a bit on Permian LOE. We -- coming into the year, we set a plan that perhaps was a bit ambitious with some embedded savings already built into it. And those are materializing a little bit slower than we had hoped. And in addition to that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are seeing some inflationary pressures, too, and compression costs and water disposal in particular, ones where we're seeing those.
是的,如果我可以稍微回顧一下二疊紀 LOE。進入新的一年,我們制定了一個可能有點雄心勃勃的計劃,其中已經包含了一些嵌入式儲蓄。但這些目標的實現比我們預期的要慢一些。除此之外,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們也看到了一些通膨壓力,特別是壓縮成本和水處理成本。
And so we're going to get there on LOE in the Permian. It might take a little bit longer. We're looking at all options that -- some might involve some capital investment, some probably did not. Some of them might be just commercial negotiations and getting after the embedded cost structure, both in our assets historical and in the Callon assets as well. But we certainly believe at this point, just like G&A and the CapEx, it's going to be -- LOE is going to be a meaningful part of the $350 million of cost savings that we've targeted for the next three years. We're just going to take a little bit more time to get there. We'll be getting there later this year and into 2026.
因此,我們將到達二疊紀的 LOE。可能需要更長的時間。我們正在考慮所有的選擇——有些可能涉及一些資本投資,有些可能不需要。其中一些可能只是商業談判,並追求嵌入式成本結構,包括我們的歷史資產和 Callon 資產。但我們確實相信,就像 G&A 和資本支出一樣,LOE 將成為我們未來三年 3.5 億美元成本節約目標的重要組成部分。我們只是需要多花一點時間才能到達那裡。我們將在今年稍後到 2026 年實現這一目標。
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Scott Gruber - Analyst
Got it. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
知道了。我很欣賞這個顏色。謝謝。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan Securities.
摩根大通證券的阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Yeah, good morning. I wanted to go through your plans to kind of evolve or migrate your completion design in the Permian. I know when you guys announced the Callon merger, John, Steve, one of the first steps that you did was to maybe relax spacing in your DSUs. So I wanted to see if you could elaborate on maybe the decision to move to tighter spacing. Is this in the Delaware? And maybe just give us some thoughts around that decision?
是的,早安。我想了解你們在二疊紀盆地的完井設計改進或遷移計畫。我知道,當你們宣布與 Callon 合併時,約翰、史蒂夫,你們採取的第一步措施之一就是放寬 DSU 中的間距。所以我想看看您是否可以詳細說明轉向更緊密間距的決定。這是在德拉瓦州嗎?您能不能就這個決定給我們講講我的看法?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I think, Arun, it's just overall in the basin. I mean we did relax spacing with the wider spacing and larger fracs on the Callon side. I would say over time, though, as we look in areas, we're starting to move more to a little tighter spacing with smaller fracs and areas. So I think it's more of the evolution of the basin. And as we look at it today, a lot of the areas where we're focusing our capital, we are drilling on tighter spacing than what we have historically.
嗯,阿倫,我認為,它只是整個盆地的一部分。我的意思是,我們確實放鬆了間距,在 Callon 側增加了間距並增加了壓裂面積。我想說的是,隨著時間的推移,當我們觀察各個區域時,我們開始轉向間距更緊密、壓裂面積更小、區域更小的模式。所以我認為這更多的是盆地的演化。從今天來看,我們集中資金的許多地區的鑽探間距都比歷史上更窄。
And with the well cost coming down and smaller fracs, we can more efficiently develop the resource. But I'll let Steve jump in on a few points as well.
隨著油井成本的下降和壓裂規模的縮小,我們可以更有效地開發資源。但我也會讓史蒂夫談幾點。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. This is the type of thing that comes up every time we get questions associated with our Permian inventory. And we haven't come to the market for quite some time with a transparent view and a thorough view of our inventory in the Permian, and we are working on that. We've talked about that in the past. We're deep in the process of characterizing everything that we've gotten with the Callon acquisition.
是的。每當我們遇到與二疊紀庫存相關的問題時,就會發生這種情況。我們已經很久沒有以透明和全面的視角看待市場中我們在二疊紀的庫存了,我們正在努力實現這一目標。我們過去曾討論過這個問題。我們正在深入分析透過收購 Callon 所獲得的一切。
We're also characterizing some remaining legacy Apache inventory that we haven't gotten to yet. And all of that inventory, the quantum of inventory is increasing with what we're planning to do on the density side. And that is actually turning out now to be a bit of shooting at a moving target on the density side because every time we get cost reductions, it naturally will increase the density, the economic density of drilling in the Permian. And every time you increase the density of the wells, you're increasing not just the well count in the drilling unit, but also the EUR in the drilling unit.
我們也正在描述一些我們尚未獲得的剩餘的 Apache 遺留庫存。所有這些庫存,庫存量都在隨著我們在密度方面的計劃而增加。而這實際上現在變成了在密度方面瞄準移動目標的一種手段,因為每當我們降低成本時,它自然就會增加密度,即二疊紀鑽探的經濟密度。每次增加井的密度時,不僅會增加鑽井單元中的井數,還會增加鑽井單元中的 EUR。
And so the more you drive down costs, what we've achieved on the $800,000 per well in the first quarter of this year, the more you do that, the more you're going back and saying, well, this further increases the density possibility of drilling in the Permian. And that's what we're looking at. And we will -- what we've said in the past and we will do this, we will come out probably later this year or early next year with a more thorough view of all of our inventory. But just recognize for everybody is that -- that is a moving target as you drive costs down, things that were uneconomic or marginally economic before become economic in that process.
因此,你越是降低成本,就像我們在今年第一季實現的每口井 80 萬美元的成本一樣,你越是這樣做,你就越會回過頭來說,這進一步增加了在二疊紀鑽探的密度可能性。這就是我們所關注的。我們會——正如我們過去所說,我們會這樣做,我們可能會在今年晚些時候或明年年初對我們所有的庫存進行更徹底的審查。但每個人都應該認識到,這是一個不斷變化的目標,隨著成本的降低,以前不經濟或略微經濟的東西在這個過程中變得經濟了。
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Great, I know investors would welcome that type of analysis, Steve, so look forward to that. Maybe one for Ben. It looks like the proceeds from the New Mexico asset sale will be targeted towards debt reduction. So maybe looking for some color, Ben, how you think about repurchasing debt?
太好了,我知道投資者會歡迎這種分析,史蒂夫,所以我很期待。也許給本一個。看起來新墨西哥州資產出售所得將用於減債。那麼也許尋找一些顏色,本,你如何看待回購債務?
I think some of your debt is trading at 25% discount to par. But you obviously have some other items such as repaying the term loan or taking out debt as it matures. So where is your head at in terms of using asset sales proceeds in terms of the debt stack?
我認為你們的部分債務的交易價格比票面價格低 25%。但您顯然還有一些其他事項,例如償還定期貸款或在債務到期時償還債務。那麼,就債務堆砌而言,您打算如何使用資產出售所得?
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Sure. No. So we paid off the Callon term loan in the first quarter with a mix of cash we had on hand and some revolver borrowings. So the revolver balance that you see at the end of the quarter, which was a mix of revolver borrowings and commercial paper was a result of fully paying off the Callon term loans. So that's good, had some interest expense savings on that.
當然。不。因此,我們在第一季用手頭上的現金和一些循環借款償還了 Callon 定期貸款。因此,您在本季末看到的循環信貸餘額(即循環信貸借款和商業票據的混合)是全額償還 Callon 定期貸款的結果。這很好,可以節省一些利息支出。
When we look really for the rest of the year and through our maturity profile through 2030, that's where a lot of our focus is going to be. We do recognize that there's some debt that's trading below par, and that's inclusive of that time period, even between now and end of 2030. And so we'll with -- pay down the revolver and have a bunch of liquidity, we've got a lot of different options that we can look at.
當我們真正展望今年剩餘時間並回顧 2030 年的成熟度概況時,我們會發現我們的重點將放在那裡。我們確實意識到,有些債務的交易價格低於票面價值,這包括那個時間段,甚至從現在到 2030 年底。因此,我們會償還循環貸款並獲得大量流動資金,我們有很多不同的選擇可以考慮。
We think of it in a lot of different ways. One way is on a yield basis. So to your point, with those bonds trading below par, that yield is higher than the cost of us to borrow on the revolver. So we'll be opportunistic as we go through the year and have a lot of tools because of the liquidity pickup from paying down the revolver.
我們用很多不同的方式來思考這個問題。一種方法是基於收益。所以正如您所說,由於這些債券的交易價格低於票面價值,因此收益率高於我們借入循環信貸的成本。因此,我們將在這一年中抓住機會,並因為償還循環貸款而獲得的流動性增加而擁有許多工具。
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Arun Jayaram - Analyst
Great. Thanks a lot.
偉大的。多謝。
Operator
Operator
Betty Jiang, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I think it will be really helpful to get some color reconciling, back on the cost optimization, the $130 million average saving for the year to the $225 million run rate expected for year-end '25. What's driving that increase in run rate over the course of the year? So specifically, I'm wondering if you're already seeing a $0.8 million saving on the Permian well cost to date, are you assuming that's going to double from here?
嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我認為,進行一些色彩協調、重新進行成本優化將非常有幫助,今年的平均節省額為 1.3 億美元,而預計 25 年底的運行率將達到 2.25 億美元。是什麼推動了全年運行率的成長?所以具體來說,我想知道您是否已經看到二疊紀油井成本迄今為止節省了 80 萬美元,您是否認為這個數字以後會翻倍?
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Yeah. So good question, Betty. The -- we increased the $60 million realized this year by $70 million to capture $130 million. To get to the run rate to the $225 million, that's just expecting that as we get into '26, a lot of the capital savings that we have by running just the 6 rigs and additional progress we'll make on overhead. And then to Steve's point, on the LOE side, we'll make some progress on LOE this year, but really expect a lot of that to come in '26 and '27.
是的。貝蒂,這個問題問得好。我們將今年實現的 6,000 萬美元增加了 7,000 萬美元,達到 1.3 億美元。為了達到 2.25 億美元的運行率,我們預計,當我們進入 26 年時,透過運行 6 台鑽機,我們將節省大量資本,並在管理費用方面取得額外進展。然後回到史蒂夫的觀點,在 LOE 方面,我們今年將在 LOE 上取得一些進展,但真的預計其中很大一部分將在 26 年和 27 年實現。
And so that's what's implied in that run rate of $225 million is that a continued acceleration of capturing those cost savings, again, by reduced activity in the Permian while still holding production flat and then continuing to capture savings with overhead and pickup in LOE.
因此,2.25 億美元的運行率意味著繼續加速獲取這些成本節約,再次透過減少二疊紀活動,同時仍保持產量平穩,然後繼續透過間接費用和 LOE 的回升來獲取節約。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
I mean, the $800,000 of savings per well is delivering the majority of that increase to $225,000 run rate at the end of the year.
我的意思是,每口井 80 萬美元的節省將帶來大部分成長,到年底運行率將達到 22.5 萬美元。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And the other factor is -- back half of the year, anything we capture now will be full year for '26. And so the captured in year number now going from $60 million to $130 million, you're actually at a higher run rate on an annualized basis going forward. And so it's really what's captured inside this year versus what the run rate on the overall program will be going into next year.
另一個因素是——回顧上半年,我們現在捕獲的任何數據都將成為 26 年全年的數據。因此,今年捕獲的數字將從 6000 萬美元增加到 1.3 億美元,實際上,未來按年計算的運行率會更高。因此,這實際上就是今年捕獲的內容與明年整個計劃的運行率之間的對比。
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. It seems like it's more driven by the overhead and LOE. Maybe my follow-up is just on the LOE front. Could you give some specific example on what you're expecting to see on the LOE side to offset the inflationary pressure that you have seen to date?
知道了。這很有幫助。這似乎更多是由開銷和 LOE 驅動的。也許我的後續行動只是在 LOE 方面。您能否給出一些具體例子,說明您預計 LOE 方面將採取哪些措施來抵消您迄今為止看到的通膨壓力?
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, there are going to be a lot of things that we're going to be looking at, everywhere from the basic day-to-day route optimizations of pumpers, all the way to the contracting of produced water disposal and compression we have contracts for things like that that come due throughout the year and throughout the years.
是的,我們要考慮很多事情,從泵車的基本日常路線優化,一直到生產水處理和壓縮的承包,我們都有這類合同,這些合同會在全年和多年內到期。
And every time one of those comes available, you have the opportunity to renegotiate. So a lot of this stuff is going to be internally focused on how we work, work operating practices, how we work out in the field, how we manage day-to-day activity and then other aspects of it will be externally focused negotiating with vendors, everything from chemicals to all other forms of services.
每當其中一個條件滿足時,你就有機會重新談判。因此,許多內容將在內部集中在我們如何工作、工作操作實踐、我們如何在現場工作、我們如何管理日常活動,而其他方面將集中在外部與供應商的談判,從化學品到所有其他形式的服務。
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Betty Jiang - Analyst
Great. I appreciate the color.
偉大的。我很欣賞這個顏色。
Operator
Operator
Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.
加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Hey guys, good morning.
大家好,早安。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, Paul.
早安,保羅。
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Paul Cheng - Analyst
John, wondering that, I mean, you're saying that why now in Egypt, the gas development is actually very attractive or comparable to the oil. And so should we assume that you have oil price line further from here that you will be making -- you're going to shift more of the rig to the gas? On the other hand, your oil price rise above the current level, you're going to ship back more into oil? And also that for Alpine High, what kind of gas oil ratio will make you saying that -- I mean, now that we will be able to move some of the capital back to Alpine High? That's the first question.
約翰,我很好奇,我的意思是,你說為什麼現在在埃及,天然氣開發實際上非常有吸引力或可與石油相媲美。那麼,我們是否應該假設,從現在起,您的油價線將進一步走高—您將把更多的鑽井平台轉向天然氣?另一方面,如果你們的油價上漲到現在的水平以上,你們會再運回更多的石油嗎?還有,對於 Alpine High 來說,什麼樣的油氣比率會讓您這麼說——我的意思是,現在我們能夠將部分資金轉移回 Alpine High 嗎?這是第一個問題。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, Paul, I mean, if you look at Egypt, we came into the year running 1 rig. Obviously, we've been ratcheting that up as brent crude oil has softened. So it puts us in a nice position. And we've also had capacity in the infrastructure to be able to add shift. And as we said, we should see volumes north of [500] by year-end.
不,保羅,我的意思是,如果你看看埃及,我們今年就運行了 1 個鑽孔機。顯然,隨著布蘭特原油價格走軟,我們一直在加強這一力度。因此,這讓我們處於有利地位。而我們的基礎設施也具備增加班次的能力。正如我們所說,到年底我們的銷售量應該會超過 [500]。
So it does give us optionality in Egypt, but you have to work kind of within the constraints of what we have in terms of facilities and inventory. And the oil still works nicely because of the cost recovery mechanisms in the PSC in Egypt. But those are at par kind of a mid-cycle brent prices. So with crude softening, definitely a tilt to the gas side in Egypt. And I'll let Steve comment on the US gas.
因此,它確實為我們在埃及提供了選擇權,但你必須在我們現有的設施和庫存限制範圍內開展工作。由於埃及產品分成合約的成本回收機制,石油產量仍然很好。但這些價格與中期布蘭特原油價格持平。因此,隨著原油價格走軟,埃及的天然氣需求肯定會出現傾斜。我會讓史蒂夫對美國天然氣發表評論。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Well, and I would just add on Egypt. On the oil side, there's been some concern expressed that while shifting more towards gas means less oil production, actually, most of the gas in the Western Desert of Egypt is very rich gas and comes with a lot of condensate. So we've been on what we've called a slight decline in oil -- gross oil volumes in Egypt and between the condensate that's coming with the gas program and also the improvements coming from the waterflood programs in stemming base decline, I would still characterize oil volume decline as being on a very slight decline.
好吧,我只想補充一下埃及。在石油方面,有人擔心,雖然更多地轉向天然氣意味著石油產量減少,但實際上,埃及西部沙漠的大部分天然氣都是非常豐富的天然氣,並伴隨大量凝析油。因此,我們一直處於所謂的石油產量略有下降的狀態——埃及的石油總產量以及天然氣計劃產生的凝析油和注水計劃在阻止基礎產量下降方面取得的進展,我仍然認為石油產量下降幅度非常小。
And it's on the -- as we look at the outlook for gross oil volume in Egypt, I would say it's on the slightest of declines as we go through second through fourth quarters.
當我們展望埃及石油總產量的前景時,我想說,從第二季度到第四季度,埃及石油總產量將略有下降。
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Steve, on Alpine high, can I ask that on -- in Egypt, I think for oil, you sort of like need to workover rig for 1 drilling rig. In the gas side, is this still a similar ratio? Or that -- yes, I'm less? Because I think part of the issue last year or the last couple of years is that you don't have -- you can't find enough of the workover rig there for you to increase the drilling rate.
史蒂夫,在阿爾卑斯高地,我可以問一下——在埃及,我認為對於石油來說,你需要為 1 個鑽井平台修井。在天然氣方面,這仍然是類似的比例嗎?或者說——是的,我少了點?因為我認為去年或過去幾年的問題部分在於你沒有——你找不到足夠的修井機來提高鑽井率。
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. We're still running a similar number of workover rigs today as we were before. But you got to remember on the gas side, part of the gas comes from Qasr field, and part of it is associated gas with the oil wells on oil production. And all of this incremental new gas that's coming on, I certainly hope we're not going to be spending a lot of time and effort and money on workovers on those wells. These are brand-new wells, should be producing for quite some time. And typically, maintenance on gas wells tends to be a little less intensive than on oil wells.
是的。我們今天運行的修井機數量與以前相同。但你必須記住,在天然氣方面,部分天然氣來自卡斯爾油田,部分天然氣與石油生產的油井伴生氣。對於不斷增加的這些新天然氣,我當然希望我們不會在修井上花費大量的時間、精力和金錢。這些都是全新的油井,應該可以生產相當長一段時間。通常,氣井的維護工作比油井的維護工作稍微簡單。
On Alpine high, Alpine high is -- obviously a lot of gas there and very economic gas at certain types of prices. But we run economics on Alpine high and decide whether we're going to drill there or not based on Waha pricing because the transport activity is completely separate from that, and we purchase gas and sell it on the Gulf Coast. And so the money that we make on the gas trading, what we call gas trading, is completely independent of Alpine high. Alpine high has to stand economically, and drilling in Alpine high has to stand economically on Waha pricing and a perceived forward view of Waha pricing.
在阿爾卑斯高地,阿爾卑斯高地顯然有大量的天然氣,而且在一定的價格下,天然氣非常經濟。但我們在阿爾卑斯高地進行經濟活動,並根據 Waha 定價決定是否在那裡鑽探,因為運輸活動與此完全分開,我們購買天然氣並在墨西哥灣沿岸銷售。因此,我們在天然氣交易中賺取的錢,也就是我們所說的天然氣交易,完全與阿爾卑斯高地無關。阿爾卑斯高地必須具有經濟效益,而阿爾卑斯高地的鑽探必須以 Waha 定價和對 Waha 定價的前瞻性觀點為依據,才能具有經濟效益。
Obviously, with pipelines being built, the occasional pipeline maintenance shutdown, things like that, Waha is still extremely volatile right now. And we've seen -- even this year, we've seen Waha pricing to a point where we have actually curtailed volumes, and we thought that that would not be the case coming into this year.
顯然,隨著管道的建設、偶爾的管道維護關閉等因素,Waha 目前仍然極不穩定。我們已經看到——即使是今年,我們也看到 Waha 的定價已經到了我們實際上削減產量的地步,我們認為今年的情況不會再如此。
With all of that, when we're at a position where we believe Waha pricing is adequate to support economic drilling in Alpine High that is as good or better than drilling for oil in the Permian Basin, then we'll shift the rig from oil-focused drilling to gas-focused drilling, or we'll add another rig for Alpine high, one or the other.
綜上所述,當我們認為 Waha 定價足以支持在 Alpine High 進行經濟鑽探,其效果與在 Permian Basin 進行石油鑽探一樣好甚至更好時,我們就會將鑽機從以石油為重點的鑽探轉移到以天然氣為重點的鑽探,或者我們會為 Alpine High 增加另一個鑽機,二者必居其一。
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Nice thing. A final -- a second one, hopefully, real quick. John, at what oil price that you would say the red [threat] is here or we are in the red mine and so you would take a more drastic cut in the capital program as well as allow the oil production to drop from South trying to hold it flat? Is there a number that you have in mind?
好東西。最後一次——希望是第二次,很快。約翰,當油價達到什麼水平時,您會說紅色[威脅]出現了,或者我們處於紅色礦井中,因此您會更大幅度地削減資本計劃,並允許南部的石油產量下降以試圖保持平穩?您心裡有數嗎?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Obviously, we'll keep an eye on things, and we've set ourselves up when we're positioned if need be to respond. But I think you'd have to see WTI get down into the very low 50s at this point. And obviously, the first step would likely be dropping a couple of rigs in the Permian and a frac crew. Maybe in Egypt, but we're -- we'll watch things, and we're in a really, really good place right now. And quite frankly, with the activity set that's running and the progress we're making on the cost structure, that number is going lower every day.
顯然,我們會密切關注事態發展,並已做好準備,以便在必要時做出反應。但我認為你必須看到 WTI 此時跌至 50 以下。顯然,第一步可能是在二疊紀盆地部署幾座鑽井平台和一支壓裂隊伍。也許在埃及,但是我們會觀察情況,我們現在處於一個非常非常好的位置。坦白說,隨著活動的開展和我們在成本結構方面取得的進展,這個數字每天都在下降。
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Paul Cheng - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Leo Mariani, ROTH.
裡奧·馬裡亞尼(Leo Mariani),羅斯(ROTH)。
Leo Mariani - Analyst
Leo Mariani - Analyst
I wanted to just touch base on the buyback here. Obviously, oil prices have softened quite a bit. You did significant buyback, $100 million or so in the first quarter. Just kind of at that $60 level, do you guys see the buyback being a little bit more limited with more focus on debt paydown? You obviously elected to sell an asset in this market.
我只是想在這裡談談回購的情況。顯然,油價已經下跌不少了。你們進行了大量回購,第一季回購了約 1 億美元。在 60 美元的水平上,你們是否認為回購會受到更多限制,而更專注於償還債務?您顯然選擇在這個市場上出售資產。
It seemed like you certainly wanted to deliver on some debt paydown goals this year in light of the weaker macro. So can you just talk about how the buyback kind of plays into your thinking at this oil price or even a little lower?
鑑於宏觀經濟疲軟,您似乎確實希望在今年實現一些債務償還目標。那麼,您能否談談在目前的油價或略低一點的情況下,回購對您有何影響?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I'll let Ben jump in, in just a second. But in general, Leo, we sold the asset because we were opportunistic on the price. I mean it wasn't something that we felt like we had to do, but we put it in the market and got numbers that we thought were fantastic, and so we transacted. We're in the process of transacting. It does let us take the revolver down, and Ben can talk about those, but I think it puts us in a position where we can also still be very opportunistic if -- on the buyback if need be.
是的。我馬上就讓本加入。但總的來說,Leo,我們出售資產是因為我們在價格上抓住了機會。我的意思是,我們並不覺得我們必須這麼做,但是我們把它投放到市場上,得到了我們認為非常棒的數據,所以我們就進行了交易。我們正在進行交易。它確實讓我們放下了左輪手槍,本可以談論這些,但我認為它使我們處於一個位置,如果需要的話,我們仍然可以非常有機會進行回購。
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Ben Rodgers - Senior Vice President Finance and Treasurer
Yeah, and just a quick follow-up. We set the 60% return to shareholders within our framework. We've exceeded that every year. And so -- as we go through the year, as John said, we'll have -- we'll be opportunistic around that. And with our zero revolver balance, we'll look at both the debt side and being opportunistic on the equity side as well.
是的,只是一個快速的跟進。我們在框架內設定了60%的股東報酬率。我們每年都超越這個數字。所以 — — 正如約翰所說,隨著我們度過這一年,我們將 — — 我們將抓住機會。憑藉我們的零循環信貸餘額,我們將同時關注債務方面以及股權方面的機會。
Leo Mariani - Analyst
Leo Mariani - Analyst
Okay. I just wanted to follow up a little bit on Egypt oil volumes. Steve, you basically said it's going to be a very, very slight decline there on gross oil volumes, if I heard you right. Certainly, just looking at first quarter, they were down, I would say, a little bit more than kind of slight decline. Maybe there were some timing issues or sort of an anomaly there. But I'm just trying to kind of get a sense, should those gross volumes continue to decline off of 1Q levels? Or is there maybe something anomalous there in 1Q?
好的。我只是想稍微了解一下埃及的石油產量。史蒂夫,如果我沒聽錯的話,你基本上是說那裡的石油總產量將會出現非常非常輕微的下降。當然,僅從第一季來看,我想說,它們的下降幅度比輕微下降要大一些。也許存在一些時間問題或某種異常情況。但我只是想了解一下,這些總量是否應該從第一季的水準繼續下降?或者第一季是否有異常?
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Riney - President, Chief Financial Officer
There was a bit of unexpected downtime in 1Q, but I think that you can expect continued slight decline through the quarters, on gross oil.
第一季出現了一些意外的停工,但我認為可以預期整個季度石油總產量將繼續小幅下降。
Leo Mariani - Analyst
Leo Mariani - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Oliver Huang, TPH & Company.
奧利佛·黃(Oliver Huang),TPH&Company。
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Good morning John and team and thanks for taking the questions. For my first question -- for my first question, I just wanted to ask about breakeven. As we think about the revised program with some of the cost outs from the savings initiatives you all have accelerated, what sort of oil price are you all now looking at in terms of covering your CapEx and base dividend with internally generated free cash flow.
早安,約翰和團隊,謝謝你們回答問題。對於我的第一個問題——對於我的第一個問題,我只是想問一下損益平衡的情況。當我們考慮修改後的計劃以及你們加速實施的節約計劃所產生的一些成本時,你們現在希望以什麼樣的油價來用內部產生的自由現金流來覆蓋資本支出和基本股息。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Oliver, if you look at where we sit today and when you factor in the savings we've got planned at the $350 million annual run rate, we can fund Suriname the exploration program, the [DCOM], run 6 rigs in the Permian, 12 rigs in Egypt and still pay the dividend at $50 WTI with very reasonable assumptions on the marketing side. So making really, really good progress. And those are -- we're funding some programs that actually are going to provide longer-term growth.
是的。奧利弗,如果你看看我們今天的狀況,並考慮到我們按照每年 3.5 億美元的運行率計劃節省的費用,我們可以為蘇里南的勘探計劃 [DCOM] 提供資金,在二疊紀運行 6 個鑽井平台,在埃及運行 12 個鑽井平台,並且仍然以 50 美元的 WTI 價格支付股息,在營銷方面做出非常合理的股息。因此取得了非常非常好的進展。我們正在資助一些實際上能夠帶來長期成長的項目。
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Makes sense. Thank d for that response. And I just had a follow-up question to Arun's earlier question. Just really trying to better understand the progression of the denser well space well spacings you all talked about in the prepared remarks. I understand there are many variables, as Steve mentioned earlier, with the shooting at a moving target analog. But just -- is there any way to quantify how this is transitioning from, say, '24 to 2025 and how this might look going forward into 2026 or if there's a better way to just kind of understand what percentage of the program this year is seeing that denser spacing design?
有道理。感謝 d 的回覆。我剛才對阿倫之前提出的問題有一個後續問題。只是想更好地理解大家在準備好的評論中談到的更密集的井距井距的進展。我知道,正如史蒂夫之前提到的,在模擬移動目標射擊時存在許多變數。但是,有沒有辦法量化從 2024 年到 2025 年的過渡情況,以及到 2026 年的過渡情況,或者有沒有更好的方法來了解今年有多少比例的項目採用了更密集的間隔設計?
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I mean, if you look today, a great percentage of it is. And part of it is we did a lot of work last year, and then we pre-purchased a lot of our tubulars and materials and things. And we're running with slimmer casing. And so you've got to set these programs up and let them run a little bit, but we're -- it moved a lot of the program in a lot of the areas we're drilling, and seeing really, really good results. And so we'll continue to tweak that.
是的,我的意思是,如果你今天看,其中很大一部分都是這樣的。其中一部分原因是我們去年做了很多工作,然後我們預先購買了很多管材、材料和東西。而且我們正在採用更纖薄的外殼。因此,你必須設定這些程序並讓它們運行一段時間,但是我們——它在我們正在鑽探的許多區域移動了很多程序,並且看到了非常非常好的結果。因此我們會繼續進行調整。
But it's a dynamic process, and we're going to continue to look to optimize as we go forward. But a greater percentage, especially in the areas where we're focused right now, you're seeing a little tighter spacing than what we've done historically and also some smaller fracs.
但這是一個動態的過程,我們將在前進的過程中不斷尋求優化。但從更大比例來看,特別是在我們現在關注的領域,你會看到比我們歷史上所做的更緊密的間距,以及一些較小的壓裂。
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Oliver Huang - Analyst
Perfect. Thanks for the time guys.
完美的。謝謝大家的時間。
Operator
Operator
And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to John Christmann, CEO, for closing remarks.
我現在沒有其他問題了。現在我想請執行長約翰·克里斯特曼 (John Christmann) 致最後總結。
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
John Christmann - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thank you. In closing, let me leave you with the following thoughts. We are making significant strides in drilling efficiencies in the Permian, and we are on track to deliver our full year production volumes at a lower capital budget. We have reduced average well cost by $800,000 per well from the 2024 levels, and this is on top of the $1 million savings we had achieved on the Callon properties. And we believe these cost savings to be structural and sustainable.
是的。謝謝。最後,請容許我分享以下幾點想法。我們在二疊紀鑽井效率方面取得了重大進展,並且預計將以較低的資本預算實現全年產量。與 2024 年的水準相比,我們已將每口井的平均成本降低了 80 萬美元,這還不包括我們在 Callon 油田上節省的 100 萬美元。我們相信這些成本節約是結構性的和可持續的。
In Egypt, we are very encouraged with strong performance from the gas program, where we are shifting an increasing proportion of the activity for this year. We have visibility to increasing average gas realizations in line with this outlook, with fourth quarter expected to average $3.80 per Mcf.
在埃及,天然氣計畫的強勁表現令我們感到非常鼓舞,今年我們將把越來越多的活動轉移到埃及。根據這一前景,我們預計平均天然氣實現價格將上升,預計第四季平均價格將達到每千立方英尺 3.80 美元。
Finally, our overhead cost reductions are proceeding ahead of schedule, and we are well on the way to delivering our targets for 2025 and beyond. This will sustainably improve our cost structure and long-term free cash flow generation.
最後,我們的管理費用削減工作正在提前進行,我們正在順利實現 2025 年及以後的目標。這將持續改善我們的成本結構和長期自由現金流的產生。
With that, I will turn the call back to the operator.
說完,我會把電話轉回接線生。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。