亞馬遜 (AMZN) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q3 2018 Financial Results Teleconference. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的支持。大家好，歡迎參加亞馬遜 2018 年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。

For opening remarks, I will be turning the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Dave Fildes. Please go ahead.

在開幕致詞時，我將把電話轉給投資者關係總監戴夫·菲爾德斯 (Dave Fildes)。請繼續。

Hello, and welcome to our Q3 2018 financial results conference call. Joining us today to answer your questions is Brian Olsavsky, our CFO.

您好，歡迎參加我們 2018 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天，我們的財務長 Brian Olsavsky 將與我們一起回答您的問題。

As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter.

當您收聽今天的電話會議時，我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的新聞稿，其中包括我們的財務表現以及本季度的指標和評論。

Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2017. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, October 25, 2018, only and will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially. Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

請注意，除非另有說明，本次電話會議中的所有比較都將針對我們 2017 年同期的結果。我們對您的問題的評論和回應僅反映管理層截至 2018 年 10 月 25 日的觀點，並將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們財務表現的因素的更多資​​訊包含在今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告和後續文件。

During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website. You will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會在新聞稿、本次網路廣播的幻燈片以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標均發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。您將找到有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多揭露，包括這些指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions. Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and customer spending, world events, the rate of growth of the Internet, online commerce and cloud services, and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC.

我們的指導包含了我們迄今為止所看到的訂單趨勢以及我們今天認為合適的假設。我們的結果本質上是不可預測的，並且可能受到許多因素的重大影響，包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和客戶支出的變化、世界事件、互聯網、線上商務和雲端服務的增長率，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的各種因素。

Our guidance also assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, investments, restructurings or legal settlements. It's not possible to accurately predict demand for goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance.

我們的指導還假設，除其他事項外，我們不會完成任何額外的業務收購、投資、重組或法律和解。我們無法準確預測商品和服務的需求，因此，我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導有重大差異。

With that, we'll move to Q&A. Operator, please remind our listeners how to initiate a question.

接下來，我們將進入問答環節。接線員，請提醒我們的聽眾如何提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Justin Post with Merrill Lynch.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美林證券的賈斯汀·波斯特 (Justin Post)。

I guess the big one is the deceleration in unit growth or online stores which is probably related to that. I know it's a tough Q3 comp, but could you comment a little bit about that? And then kind of what initiatives could be most interesting to maybe reaccelerate that over the next couple of years, what categories?

我猜最大的問題是單位增長或在線商店的減速，這可能與此有關。我知道 Q3 比賽很艱難，但您能對此發表一點評論嗎？那麼，在未來幾年內，哪些舉措可能會最有趣，從而重新加速這一進程，哪些類別？

Thank you, Justin. Yes, let me just remind you of a couple of things from last year. We had 2 reductions on our super saver shipping threshold in the first half of the year between February and May. That did spur a lot of unit growth in the second and third quarter. We also have issue with digital content -- not an issue, but the fact that digital content is moving to subscriptions, Amazon Music Unlimited and Kindle Unlimited, in particular. It's been really popular. I'll just remind you just the units, those do not count in our unit totals nor do the units from Whole Foods Market. So yes, I would say, essentially with that backdrop, we're still very encouraged by the demand and the reception from customers. On the consumer side, we have -- Amazon-fulfilled units are still growing faster than paid units. 3P is now up to 53% of total paid units. In-stock is very strong, especially as we head into the holiday period. I think we're well positioned for the holiday. We have over 100 million Prime-eligible items available for free 2-day shipping for Prime members. And again, all -- a lot of -- when I'm talking about the unit deceleration, a lot of the fastest-growing areas, things like subscription services, AWS and advertising, are not caught in that metric.

謝謝你，賈斯汀。是的，讓我提醒你去年發生的幾件事。今年上半年（2 月至 5 月）我們曾兩度降低超級優惠運費門檻。這確實刺激了第二季和第三季的銷售成長。我們也面臨數位內容的問題——這不是問題，而是數位內容正在轉向訂閱，尤其是 Amazon Music Unlimited 和 Kindle Unlimited。它確實很受歡迎。我只是想提醒您，這些單位不計入我們的單位總數，也不計入全食超市的單位。所以是的，我想說，基本上在這樣的背景下，我們仍然對客戶的需求和回饋感到非常鼓舞。在消費者方面，亞馬遜配送單位的成長速度仍快於付費單位。3P 現已佔總付費單位的 53%。庫存非常充足，尤其是在假期即將來臨之際。我認為我們已經為假期做好了充分的準備。我們擁有超過 1 億件符合 Prime 資格的商品，可供 Prime 會員享有 2 天免費送貨服務。再說一次，當我談論單位減速時，許多成長最快的領域，例如訂閱服務、AWS 和廣告，都沒有被納入該指標。

Yes. And Justin, this is Dave. Just to add on that, you mentioned the online stores, just a reminder there is a little bit of impact from the revenue recognition. So you see the online stores revenue growing about 11% ex FX to be higher than that, but -- for the adoption of the standard. So there's a little bit of a headwind there as well.

是的。賈斯汀，這是戴夫。補充一點，您提到了網上商店，只是提醒一下，收入確認會有一點影響。因此，您會看到網上商店的收入增長了約 11%，扣除外匯因素後會更高，但這是針對採用該標準而言的。因此那裡也存在一些阻力。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬克‧馬哈尼 (Mark Mahaney)。

Okay, I was going to also then ask you to drill down a little bit on the international retail business that seemed to slow down, I guess, that -- whatever, 15% or something year-over-year. Any particularly color? Any markets that would've led to that? Though the comp was tougher, but anything else you'd call out there?

好的，我還想請您深入探討國際零售業務，該業務似乎有所放緩，我想，同比增速大概在 15% 左右。有什麼特別的顏色嗎？有哪些市場會導致這種情況？儘管比賽更加激烈，但您還有什麼要說的嗎？

Sure. So on a year-over-year basis, I think you have to look at 2 things. We did the Souq acquisition last year in May, so the full pick up on that year-over-year was in 2017, and now, we're lapping that. There's also material change in the Diwali calendar in India. About half of our Diwali sales last year were in Q3. This year, they'll be fully in Q4. So those are a couple of factors that hit the international growth area, particularly. But I'll also point out that we launched Turkey in the quarter, and now, we have 17 Amazon websites globally. So we're still very pleased again with the international business, continuing to invest in Prime Benefits, international expansion, as I just mentioned, and we're still seeing very good pick up. Story is different country-by-country, obviously. Some are much further along than others, but overall, we're very happy. India, although Diwali moved into Q4, so far, that's going really well. We've seen great response from customers. We've had 60% growth in new customers during the period. Orders are coming in from 99% of the pin codes in the country. So a great first wave of the -- what we call the Amazon's Great Indian Festival, which leads into Diwali.

當然。因此，與去年同期相比，我認為你必須關注兩件事。我們去年 5 月收購了 Souq，因此 2017 年實現了同比全面成長，現在，我們正在實現這一目標。印度的排燈節日曆也發生了重大變化。去年，我們排燈節銷售額的大約一半發生在第三季。今年，他們將全面進入第四季。這些是特別影響國際成長領域的幾個因素。但我還要指出的是，我們在本季推出了土耳其網站，現在，我們在全球擁有 17 個亞馬遜網站。因此，我們對國際業務仍然感到非常滿意，繼續投資於 Prime Benefits 和國際擴張，正如我剛才提到的，我們仍然看到非常好的成長。顯然，不同國家的故事有所不同。有些進展比其他的要快得多，但總的來說，我們非常高興。印度，儘管排燈節進入了第四季度，但到目前為止，一切進展順利。我們看到了客戶的熱烈反響。在此期間，我們的新客戶數量增加了 60%。訂單來自全國 99% 的郵遞區號地區。因此，我們稱之為亞馬遜印度大節日的盛大第一波浪潮即將到來，排燈節即將到來。

Our next question comes from the line of Douglas Anmuth with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的道格拉斯·安穆斯。

You had significant operating income upside in 3Q relative to your guide. Could you just talk about the biggest drivers there in terms of out-performance? And then when you think about your 4Q outlook, how should we think about the minimum wage increase that you've talked about? And any other one-time or special items that might be weighing on that operating income outlook?

相對於您的預期，第三季的營業收入有顯著的成長。能否談談業績優異的最大驅動因素？然後，當您考慮第四季度的前景時，我們應該如何看待您談到的最低工資上漲？還有什麼其他一次性或特殊項目可能會影響營業收入前景？

Sure. Let me start with Q3. And this will be a commentary pretty much on the whole year. That was especially true in Q4. So first of all, we've had very strong growth in some very profitable businesses that we have, most notably AWS and advertising. But we've also had great cost performance this year in 3 specific areas I'll call out. So first, on headcount. If you'll remember, we grew headcount 48% in 2016 and 38% last year, if you adjust for Whole Foods. With Whole Foods, it was 66%. But without Whole Foods, we still grew 38%. We have looked to really leverage our investment from the last couple of years. And as we funded and moved, invested in a lot of new areas, as we've talked about AWS, devices, digital content, we've had a lot of movement within the company that has filled a lot of these roles. So we're only up 13% on headcount through 9 months year-over-year, so a real step-down in that. Again, the theme here is going to be banking some of the investments from prior years and looking to gain greater control. In our fulfillment center world, we had grown square footage for our fulfillment center and shipping areas by over 30% the last 2 years, 2016 and 2017. I've talked about that in prior calls. It's -- we're making that investment to match up with very strong Fulfilled by Amazon demand and AFN, or Amazon-Fulfilled Network units, that are growing at a faster rate than our paid units. This year, we're only adding about 15% to our square footage. So again, getting better efficiencies on what we have and banking the multi-year investment that we've been making. And the last one which is really significant is on the infrastructure side. You see the operating margin for AWS is up to 31% this quarter. A lot of that is based on efficiencies of our data centers, not only for the AWS business but also for our Amazon consumer businesses, which is AWS' biggest customer. If you look at capital leases, which is where we spend money for the data centers, it's up only 9% year-over-year trailing 12 months, and it was up 69% last year at the end of the year. So those 3 areas have driven a lot of the cost performance and a lot of the deviation from probably the estimates that I've come up with this year. So we are really happy that, again, we're seeing great cost performance in a number of areas across the business.

當然。讓我從問題 3 開始。這幾乎是對全年的評論。第四季尤其如此。首先，我們的一些非常賺錢的業務都實現了強勁成長，最顯著的是 AWS 和廣告。但我指出，今年我們在 3 個具體領域也實現了出色的成本效益。首先，關於員工人數。如果你還記得的話，如果將全食超市考慮在內，我們的員工人數在 2016 年增長了 48%，去年增長了 38%。對 Whole Foods 來說，這一比例為 66%。但即使沒有全食超市，我們仍然成長了 38%。過去幾年來，我們一直致力於真正發揮我們的投資效益。隨著我們在許多新領域籌集資金、開展業務轉移和投資，例如我們談到的 AWS、設備、數位內容，公司內部也進行了大量調動，填補了許多此類職位的空缺。因此，與去年同期相比，我們前 9 個月的員工人數僅增加了 13%，這是一個真正的下降。再次強調，這裡的主題是將前幾年的一些投資存入銀行並尋求更大的控制權。在我們的配送中心領域，過去兩年（2016 年和 2017 年），我們的配送中心和運輸區域的面積增加了 30% 以上。我在之前的通話中已經談過這個問題。我們進行這項投資是為了滿足亞馬遜配送的強勁需求以及 AFN（亞馬遜配送網路單位），其成長速度比我們的付費單位更快。今年，我們的建築面積僅增加了約 15%。因此，我們要再次提高現有資源的效率，並確保我們多年來的投資得到回報。最後一個真正重要的是基礎設施方面。您將看到本季 AWS 的營業利潤率高達 31%。這在很大程度上取決於我們資料中心的效率，不僅適用於 AWS 業務，也適用於我們的亞馬遜消費者業務（AWS 的最大客戶）。如果你看一下資本租賃，也就是我們為資料中心花錢的地方，它在過去 12 個月內僅比去年同期增長了 9%，而去年年底卻增長了 69%。因此，這三個領域在很大程度上影響了成本績效，並且很大程度上偏離了我今年提出的估計。因此，我們非常高興，我們再次看到整個業務的多個領域都具有出色的成本效益。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark May with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的馬克‧梅。

A question on AWS. Obviously, in the last few quarters, you've seen accelerating revenue growth. This quarter, 46%. Still quite strong. But dollar and percentage growth did slow. And I'm just kind of curious, are you just reaching a point in terms of law of large numbers, where it will be more difficult to sustain, not only accelerating growth but sustain kind of the 40-plus-percent growth levels where we've been recently? Or was there something else going on kind of in the quarter that maybe drove that?

關於 AWS 的問題。顯然，在過去幾個季度中，您已經看到收入成長加速。本季度，46%。還是挺強的。但美元和百分比的成長確實放緩了。我只是有點好奇，根據大數定律，你們是否已經達到了一個臨界點，在這個臨界點上，維持增長不僅會變得更加困難，而且很難維持我們最近所處的 40% 以上的增長水平？或者本季是否發生了其他一些事情導致了這種情況？

Yes, thanks for your question. This growth rate's going to bounce around. We've had sequential increase in growth rate the last prior 3 quarters, I believe, it was. This quarter is slightly down, but still, 46% growth is very strong. We are at an annualized run rate above $26 billion, and that was about $18 billion this time last year. So we're very happy with the growth in the business, the momentum that we're seeing with enterprise customers. So -- and let me mention, on the cost side, it's been a very good year from gaining greater efficiencies in our infrastructure costs.

是的，謝謝你的提問。這個成長率將會上下波動。我相信，過去三個季度我們的成長率是連續上升的。本季度略有下降，但 46% 的成長仍然非常強勁。我們的年化運作率超過 260 億美元，而去年同期約為 180 億美元。因此，我們對業務的成長以及企業客戶的發展勢頭感到非常高興。所以——讓我提一下，在成本方面，今年是非常好的一個年份，我們的基礎設施成本效率得到了提升。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。

I have 2. The first one, the fourth quarter revenue guide and the fourth quarter revenue deceleration, maybe can you just help us understand a little bit any of the specific categories or countries that have been the largest contributors to revenue growth throughout the course of this year? And which of those are really slowing down sort of driving this potential deceleration that you're guiding to? Then the second one, you've applied robotics to the warehouses now around Kiva. Curious of your thoughts about the need or desire to invest in autonomous driving technologies as you think about some of the other retailers partnering with Waymo and other players, et cetera.

我有 2 個問題。第一個問題，第四季營收指南和第四季營收減速，您能否幫助我們了解今年對營收成長貢獻最大的具體類別或國家？其中哪些因素確實會減緩您預測的這種潛在減速趨勢？第二，你們已經將機器人技術應用到 Kiva 周圍的倉庫。當您想到其他一些零售商與 Waymo 和其他參與者合作時，我很好奇您對投資自動駕駛技術的必要性或願望的看法。

Sure. Let me talk about guidance. So our guidance for the fourth quarter implies 10% to 20% growth. It includes an 80 basis point unfavorable impact from foreign exchange. I wouldn't point to any specific country. Once you adjust for the fact that Whole Foods -- it was purchased in August of last year, and that has impacted every quarter since then. Q4 will be -- the first solid non-Whole Foods comp since before we bought them in Q2 of -- since Q2 of last year. So if you -- even factoring that in. We're looking at Q4 and -- we often have very high error bars on the quarter. Much of our -- not only our revenue for the quarter but also for the year comes in that very tight window between middle of November and the end of the year. So it's always a very difficult period for us to estimate. What I would say is that we feel like we're in great shape for the holiday. The warehouses are very clean. We feel like we're going to have great capacity, not only for retail products but also for FBA. We're going to have great capacity for shipping to our customers. So we're very ready to go. Selection should be at its highest point, especially for Prime members. So we're very bullish on the fourth quarter. We'll just have to see how revenue comes in. I will say there's one housekeeping item on Prime revenue recognition that you should be aware of and may have -- removed it from prior quarters. This year, we took Prime subscription revenue and amortized it over the quarters on a straight-line method. Previously, we had done it on a -- it's tilted more to Q4, was based more on shipping units. So what you've seen is a push of revenue and income from Q4 into Q1, 2 and 3 that we've mentioned on each call. This is the quarter where that will reverse. That is, to scale it for you, under the old methodology, we would have had $300 million more of both revenue and operating income in the quarter. That has, again, been caught up for in prior quarters. But again, not a huge factor on the growth rate for revenue, but just another item to consider. On the robotics, I don't have much to say on autonomous driving. We are putting most of our efforts right now -- continue to -- into our robotics program. We think it's been a great addition to our fulfillment capacity. It makes the jobs in our warehouse that much better. It makes the people around the robots that much more productive. It allows us to have much greater density of product storage and a number of other benefits. It has some additional capital intensity, but it has good return on invested capital from our standpoint.

當然。我先講一下引導。因此，我們對第四季的預期是成長 10% 至 20%。其中包括外匯帶來的80個基點的不利影響。我不會指出任何特定的國家。一旦你考慮到 Whole Foods 是去年 8 月被收購的事實，那麼從那時起每個季度都會受到影響。第四季將是自去年第二季我們收購全食超市以來，第一家業績穩健的非全食超市公司。所以如果你——甚至考慮到這一點。我們正在關注第四季度——該季度的誤差範圍通常很高。我們的大部分收入——不僅是本季的收入，而且是全年的收入——都來自於 11 月中旬到年底這個非常緊張的時間段。因此，對我們來說，這始終是一個非常難以估計的時期。我想說的是，我們感覺自己的狀態非常適合這個假期。倉庫非常乾淨。我們覺得我們將擁有強大的產能，不僅適用於零售產品，也適用於FBA。我們將擁有強大的運輸能力來為我們的客戶提供服務。我們已經做好出發的準備了。選擇應該處於最高點，特別是對於 Prime 會員而言。因此，我們對第四季非常看好。我們只需要看看收入如何進來。我想說的是，在 Prime 收入確認中有一個管理項目您應該了解，並且可能已經將其從前幾個季度中刪除了。今年，我們採用了直線法，將 Prime 訂閱收入在各個季度進行攤銷。此前，我們已經這樣做了 - 它更多地傾向於第四季度，更多地基於運輸單位。因此，您所看到的是，收入和收益從第四季度推向第一、第二和第三季度，我們在每次電話會議上都提到這一點。本季度，這種情況將會逆轉。也就是說，按照舊的方法，我們本季的收入和營業收入將增加 3 億美元。這一情況在前幾個季度已經得到彌補。但同樣，這並不是影響收入成長率的重要因素，而只是另一個需要考慮的因素。關於機器人技術，我對自動駕駛沒有太多要說的。我們現在正把大部分精力——繼續——投入到我們的機器人專案上。我們認為這對我們的履行能力有很大的增強。它使我們倉庫的工作變得更好。它使得機器人周圍的人們的工作效率更高。它使我們的產品儲存密度更高，並帶來許多其他好處。它有一些額外的資本密集度，但從我們的角度來看，它具有良好的投資資本回報率。

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan。

With a lot of offline retailers talking more about omnichannel, I wanted to understand some of the investments you might be making around unifying the efforts with Whole Foods and Amazon Prime Now, speeding up delivery, giving consumers as much choice as possible and moving SKUs closer to households. How should we be thinking about that push in '19 to '20 and how that might open up new areas of wallet share for the company?

隨著許多線下零售商更多地談論全渠道，我想了解您可能進行的一些投資，包括與 Whole Foods 和 Amazon Prime Now 統一努力、加快配送速度、為消費者提供盡可能多的選擇以及將 SKU 移到更靠近家庭的地方。我們應該如何看待 2019 年至 2020 年的這項推動，以及這將如何為公司開闢新的錢包份額領域？

Sure. Yes, I think we started to show our strategy on the Whole Foods side. You'll see, even in this quarter, we started to have greater expansion of our grocery delivery out of Whole Foods using Prime Now. We're now in 60 cities that's -- in the U.S. giving customers delivery in as fast as an hour, thousands of great organic products from Whole Foods. We've also expanded grocery pick up, and that's available in 10 cities, so the customers can pick up at the Whole Foods store. You'll see that we've started to tie Whole Foods into Alexa. You can order -- you can build your cart using Alexa and then checkout using the Prime Now app. So there's going to be a lot of, as you say, omnichannel overlap, especially in the grocery business. On the storefront, we're also, as you can see, experimenting with numerous store formats. Amazon Go is now up to 6 stores. We opened 5 in the quarter. We're getting great feedback on that. Customers love the ability to quickly walk in, select items they want and leave without waiting in a checkout line. We opened up an Amazon 4-star location in New York City, where we're going to test the concept of a highly curated selection of top categories across Amazon. We, of course, have Amazon bookstores, 18 bookstores in the U.S. So we're going to experiment with multiple ways of reaching the customer wherever they happen to be.

當然。是的，我認為我們開始在 Whole Foods 方面展示我們的策略。您會發現，即使在本季度，我們也開始利用 Prime Now 擴大 Whole Foods 的雜貨配送業務。目前，我們的業務已覆蓋美國 60 個城市，最快可在一小時內為顧客配送數千種來自 Whole Foods 的優質有機產品。我們也擴大了食品雜貨提貨服務，目前已涵蓋 10 個城市，顧客可以在 Whole Foods 商店取貨。您會發現我們已經開始將 Whole Foods 與 Alexa 連結起來。您可以訂購——您可以使用 Alexa 建立購物車，然後使用 Prime Now 應用程式結帳。因此，正如您所說，全通路將會出現許多重疊，尤其是在雜貨業務中。在店面上，如您所見，我們也在嘗試多種商店形式。Amazon Go 目前已擁有 6 家門市。我們在本季開設了 5 家門市。我們對此收到了很好的回饋。顧客喜歡能夠快速走進去，選擇他們想要的商品，然後離開，而不需要排隊結帳。我們在紐約市開設了一家亞馬遜四星級店鋪，我們將在那裡測試在亞馬遜上精心挑選頂級類別的概念。當然，我們在美國有 18 家亞馬遜書店。因此，我們將嘗試多種方式與客戶聯繫，無論他們身在何處。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Sandler with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的羅斯·桑德勒。

I have 2 questions. Any color on -- it looks like shipping costs and maybe labor costs might see some inflation in 2019. So do you agree with that? Or what are some of the things you can do to potentially offset some of that pressure? And then the 15% fulfillment square-footage growth, you're obviously deploying a lot of automation and there's a lot more efficiency gains in the current generation in fulfillment centers than maybe the older ones. So how should we think about that 15%? Is that not a good reading indicator on growth into 2019? Or is it -- any color there would be helpful.

我有兩個問題。無論哪種情況——看起來運輸成本和勞動力成本可能會在 2019 年出現一些通膨。那麼您同意這個觀點嗎？或者您可以做哪些事情來潛在地抵消部分壓力？然後，隨著履行面積增加 15%，您顯然部署了大量自動化設備，而當前一代履行中心的效率比老一代提升了很多。那我們該如何看待那15%呢？這不就是 2019 年經濟成長的一個好指標嗎？或者是——任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. I think it's comparable to -- last question first. I think the 15% is comparable to the 30% that -- plus that I mentioned in 2016 and 2017. We are debating whether the dynamics of the warehouse are changing, so that square footage may not be the main indicator. It might be cubic feet, but we will -- if we switch to that way of looking at it, we'll make sure that we bridge the gap on the difference between the 2. But the other comment about cost, I believe you're probably referring to the U.S. rumored USPS rate hikes in transportation cost. We're not expecting a material impact from these rate changes in 2019. Annual rate increases from our transportation partners is a really regular occurrence. And we negotiate hard, and we'll always work hard internally to get even more efficient on our shipping methods. So we don't see that as being a huge issue. On wages, of course, we did raise wages. And starting November 1, over 400 -- or excuse me, just under 400,000 employees, both full time and part time in the U.S. and the U.K., will be getting a substantial wage increase. So that is factored -- I'm not quantifying that today, but it's factored into our Q4 guidance, and it will be, obviously, factored into the guidance into 2019.

當然。我認為它相當於——最後一個問題。我認為 15% 與我在 2016 年和 2017 年提到的 30% 相當。我們正在討論倉庫的動態是否正在發生變化，因此平方英尺可能不是主要指標。它可能是立方英尺，但我們會——如果我們換個角度來看，我們將確保彌合兩者之間的差距。但關於成本的另一條評論，我相信你可能指的是美國傳聞中的 USPS 運輸成本上漲。我們預計 2019 年這些利率變動不會產生重大影響。我們的運輸合作夥伴的年度費率上漲是一個非常常見的現象。我們進行了艱苦的談判，我們將始終努力進行內部工作，以使我們的運輸方式更加有效率。所以我們不認為這是一個大問題。關於工資，當然，我們確實提高了工資。從 11 月 1 日開始，美國和英國的 400 多名——或者不好意思，接近 40 萬名全職和兼職員工將獲得大幅加薪。所以這已被考慮在內——我今天不會量化它，但它已被納入我們第四季度的指引中，而且顯然也會被納入 2019 年的指引中。

Our next question comes from the line of Youssef Squali with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Youssef Squali。

Two quick questions. First, can you quantify the contribution of PillPack acquisition in the quarter? Maybe help us understand the strategy there. And then there are some new reports suggesting that you guys were working on an ad-supported video streaming service under the IMDb brand. Can you just help shed any more light on that? Is that especially relative to your Prime Video offering?

兩個簡單的問題。首先，您能能量化本季收購 PillPack 的貢獻嗎？也許可以幫助我們理解那裡的策略。然後有一些新報告表明你們正在 IMDb 品牌下開發廣告支援的視訊串流服務。您能幫忙進一步解釋一下嗎？這是否特別與您的 Prime Video 產品有關？

Let me start with PillPack. The deal closed in September, so it was a material impact back on the quarter. But we're excited, really excited to start working with the management team there. They're very strong. They've done a great job building a highly differentiated customer experience that's customer centric like we are. And right now, our focus is on learning from them and innovating with them on how to best to meet customer needs over time. I'll let Dave handle the second question.

讓我先從 PillPack 開始。該交易於 9 月完成，因此對本季產生了重大影響。但我們很高興，真的很高興開始與那裡的管理團隊合作。他們非常強壯。他們在建立高度差異化、以客戶為中心的客戶體驗方面做得非常出色，就像我們一樣。現在，我們的重點是向他們學習，並與他們一起創新，以便能夠更好地滿足客戶的需求。我會讓戴夫來處理第二個問題。

Yes. We have no plans to build an ad-supported Prime Video offering for free at this time.

是的。目前，我們還沒有計劃免費提供廣告支援的 Prime Video 服務。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Jason Helfstein。

Two questions. First, I think I may have missed earlier if you gave out the impact of ASC 606. And then maybe second question, I think what -- one of the things people are trying to think through is you obviously guide to revenue and operating income. But obviously -- but as the business shifts more to 3P and advertising, gross profits is now much more important than just the way you capture the value you provide. So maybe if you can guide, is there a way to just help us foot perhaps slower revenue growth we're seeing versus what's obviously you extracting more value for your partners and customers and for yourself.

兩個問題。首先，如果您之前提到過 ASC 606 的影響，我想我可能已經錯過了。然後也許是第二個問題，我認為——人們試圖思考的事情之一是你顯然指導收入和營業收入。但顯然——隨著業務更多地轉向第三方和廣告，毛利現在比僅僅獲取您所提供的價值的方式更為重要。所以，如果您能指導一下，有沒有辦法幫助我們應對我們所看到的可能較慢的收入成長，而不是為您的合作夥伴、客戶和您自己獲取更多價值。

Yes, thanks, Jason. This is Dave. Just quickly on the ASC impact. Brian mentioned earlier that, of course, we've been talking about it all year, the changing in the subscription revenue recognition to now a straight line. So on a comp basis, you'd expect to see subscription revenue will be about $300 million lower due to that accounting change. The other piece that we haven't talked about is the re-class that we've given in the past few quarters, specifically around the advertising services that have moved from contra COGS into other revenue beginning in 2018. That was about $750 million increase to that other sales revenue category here in the third quarter.

是的，謝謝，傑森。這是戴夫。只是快速對 ASC 產生影響。布萊恩之前提到，當然，我們整年都在談論這個問題，將訂閱收入確認改為直線確認。因此，從比較角度來看，由於會計變更，您預計訂閱收入將減少約 3 億美元。我們尚未討論的另一點是過去幾季我們給出的重新分類，特別是圍繞廣告服務，這些服務從 2018 年開始從抵銷銷貨成本轉移到其他收入。這意味著第三季其他銷售收入類別增加了約 7.5 億美元。

Yes. And your comment on revenue versus operating income versus potentially gross profit, I would say the impact of third-party growth, and we're now up to 53% of our paid units in the quarter were a third party, it's steadily been going up. It's up 300 basis points year-over-year. So I think the impact on revenue growth rates, since the revenue component of that is not as large, is probably something to consider on a year-over-year period. I think it tends to not be as big a factor sequentially quarter-over-quarter as -- since it has a gradual growth in it. But again, we'll continue to give revenue guidance and also operating income to an appropriately conservative level that we've tried to maintain over time.

是的。至於您對收入、營業收入和潛在毛利的評論，我想說的是第三方成長的影響，我們本季的付費單位中有 53% 來自第三方，而且這一數字一直在穩步上升。與去年同期相比上漲了 300 個基點。因此，我認為對收入成長率的影響可能是需要考慮的同比因素，因為其中的收入部分並不大。我認為，與上一季相比，它的影響往往不會那麼大，因為它是一個逐漸增長的過程。但我們將繼續提供收入指導，並將營業收入維持在適當保守的水平，並努力長期維持這一水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony DiClemente with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Anthony DiClemente。

Just wanted to dig in a little bit on advertising and the growth opportunity there. If you can help us on the potential for higher ad pricing in terms of the ROI for your marketers hopefully being reflected in higher price per ad. And then what about the ad loads? So are we kind of close to being at a full ad load? Is there a long runway there? Just trying to get a sense for pricing and volume underneath the advertising. And then also along the lines of advertising. Heading into the holiday season, should we expect any increase in your efforts around Alexa commercialization, voice, keyword, ads, let's say? And does that fit into your broader advertising growth strategy?

只是想深入了解廣告和那裡的成長機會。如果您能幫助我們了解行銷人員的投資報酬率方面提高廣告定價的可能性，希望這能反映在更高的廣告單價上。那麼廣告載入情況如何？那麼，我們的廣告量是否已經接近飽和了呢？那裡有一條長跑道嗎？只是想了解廣告背後的定價和數量。然後也沿著廣告的思路。進入假期，我們是否應該期待您在 Alexa 商業化、語音、關鍵字、廣告等方面加強？這是否符合您更廣泛的廣告成長策略？

Yes, let me talk a little more broadly about advertising. So yes, we are seeing really strong adoption across a number of groups, Amazon vendors and sellers, for sure, authors as well as third-party advertisers who want to reach Amazon customers. As far as penetration, we don't have that quantified for you, but we still believe that there is a lot of room to continue to improve the presentation of bringing to our customers new and more relevant purchase options. So we don't think -- we'll continue to invent both on the product side, the tools side, with our goal being improve the usability of the tools for advertisers, make smarter recommendations for customers, automate activities so that advertisers don't have to work as hard and invent new products for advertisers. If we do this right, we think we'll both help advertisers and help Amazon consumers at the same time. So don't have -- I know it doesn't answer your question about specific rate increases or capacity, but that is the general strategy that we're seeing in advertising.

是的，讓我更廣泛地談談廣告。所以是的，我們看到許多群體都強烈採用該技術，包括亞馬遜供應商和賣家，當然還有作者以及想要接觸亞馬遜客戶的第三方廣告商。就滲透率而言，我們無法為您量化，但我們仍然相信，還有很大的改進空間，可以繼續為我們的客戶帶來新的、更相關的購買選擇。因此，我們不認為——我們將繼續在產品方面和工具方面進行創新，我們的目標是提高工具對廣告商的可用性，為客戶提供更聰明的建議，實現活動自動化，以便廣告商不必那麼辛苦，並為廣告商發明新產品。如果我們做得對，我們認為我們將同時幫助廣告商和亞馬遜消費者。所以沒有——我知道這沒有回答你關於具體費率上漲或容量的問題，但這是我們在廣告中看到的一般策略。

Yes, and this is Dave, just jumping in on the Alexa point. I mean, I think the short answer is we don't have any plans to add paid advertising to Alexa. I think we clearly had a lot of exciting things happen in the last month or 2 in terms of new announcements and devices out there. And I mean, I think really looking at that, the goal is make customers lives easier and make it more convenient. And a lot of that is you're seeing that in homes, and to some extent, on the go. So I think if you look at the recent announcements, you've seen a few things. I mean, one, we're bringing a lot of cool hardware options to customers. Second thing, I mean, making the Alexa service smarter -- just getting smarter and more capable. And then also delivering tools for developers, helping them build for and really with Alexa. So I think making her smarter and seeing that she gets smarter with all the skills, leveraging the cloud and AI, becoming more knowledgeable, and introducing a lot of really cool new features. So really excited about the customer response with those devices and those tools so far and looking forward to doing even more.

是的，我是戴夫，我只是想談談 Alexa 的觀點。我的意思是，我認為簡短的回答是我們沒有計劃在 Alexa 中添加付費廣告。我認為，就新公告和新設備而言，我們在過去一兩個月顯然發生了很多令人興奮的事情。我的意思是，我認為真正從這個角度來看，目標是讓客戶的生活更輕鬆、更方便。很多這樣的情況你在家裡就能看到，或是某種程度上在旅途中也能看到。所以我認為如果你看一下最近的公告，你會看到一些事情。我的意思是，首先，我們為客戶帶來了很多很酷的硬體選項。第二件事，我的意思是讓 Alexa 服務變得更聰明——變得更聰明、更強大。然後也為開發人員提供工具，幫助他們建立 Alexa 並真正使用 Alexa。所以我認為讓她變得更聰明，看到她憑藉所有技能變得更聰明，利用雲端和人工智慧，變得更加知識淵博，並引入許多非常酷的新功能。到目前為止，我對客戶對這些設備和工具的反應感到非常興奮，並期待做更多的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley。

Wanted to just follow up on the advertising side and get a sense for how much you guys feel like you're demand constrained versus supply constrained, either in the ability to put more ads on your property and/or just provide the tools to advertisers, and you feel like there's more demand than you can satisfy. Any color you can share there?

只是想跟進一下廣告方面的情況，了解一下你們在多大程度上感到需求受限或供應受限，無論是在你們的網站上投放更多廣告的能力，還是僅僅向廣告商提供工具的能力，你們覺得需求超出了你們所能滿足的程度。您可以分享任何顏色嗎？

This is Dave. I mean, nothing specific. I mean, I think so much of what we're focused on is making sure that there's a high degree of relevancy and usefulness for customers when you look at advertisements that you see on the site, in particular, and how we position those. And so we spend a lot of time looking at the data to make sure that customer behavior and feedback is telling us that it's useful and helpful when customers are making those purchase decisions. And so we're always testing different levels of that and trying to understand the various features, whether it's display or some of the sponsored elements that are out there, what kind of feedback's that are out there, but certainly keep that in mind as we roll out new things.

這是戴夫。我的意思是，沒有什麼具體的東西。我的意思是，我認為我們關注的重點是確保客戶在網站上看到的廣告具有高度的相關性和實用性，以及我們如何定位這些廣告。因此，我們花費大量時間查看數據，以確保客戶行為和回饋告訴我們，當客戶做出購買決定時，這些數據是有用且有幫助的。因此，我們始終在測試不同級別的功能，並嘗試了解各種功能，無論是顯示還是一些贊助元素，以及有什麼樣的反饋，但在推出新產品時一定要牢記這一點。

Our final question will come from the line of Colin Sebastian with Baird.

我們的最後一個問題來自貝爾德的科林·塞巴斯蒂安。

I guess 2 quick ones. Any change in the trajectory of Prime membership growth since the June price increase? And then how would you describe the pricing environments for the core AWS services? And is this still a key lever that you use for business development?

我猜是兩個簡單的。自 6 月價格上漲以來，Prime 會員成長軌跡有何變化？那麼您如何描述核心 AWS 服務的定價環境呢？這是否仍然是您用於業務發展的關鍵槓桿？

Yes, sure. Let me start with the Amazon Prime price increase. Of course, that went into effect earlier in the year in May. We're very pleased with the renewal data and annual sign-up data that we've seen since then. Program remains very strong, both in membership and engagement. And a lot of our video content, music and shipping, definitely, as well as other Prime Benefits, we just continue to see that ramp up, not only in the U.S. but in other countries. So we do continue to make the Prime offer better as well. I'd mentioned earlier the linkage with Prime member savings at Whole Foods market that we set up in Q2, the expansion of grocery delivery to more than 60 cities in the U.S. using Prime Now and Whole Foods stores, the ability to pick up groceries from Whole Foods, adding content. We have a great slate of content coming out in the fourth quarter here. Hopefully, you've seen already Jack Ryan and The Romanoffs, and pretty soon, you'll see the follow-up season to The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and also a couple other things. And hopefully, you'll see Thursday Night Football tonight when you get home.

是的，當然。首先我要說一下亞馬遜 Prime 會員價格上漲的情況。當然，這項規定已於今年 5 月初生效。我們對自那時以來看到的續訂資料和年度註冊資料感到非常滿意。該計劃在會員數量和參與度方面都保持著強勁勢頭。當然，我們的許多影片內容、音樂和運輸以及其他 Prime 福利都在持續成長，不僅在美國，而且在其他國家。因此，我們也將繼續改進 Prime 服務。我之前提到過，我們在第二季度建立了與 Whole Foods 超市 Prime 會員優惠的聯繫，利用 Prime Now 和 Whole Foods 商店將雜貨配送服務擴展到美國 60 多個城市，可以從 Whole Foods 取貨，並增加了內容。我們將在第四季推出一系列精彩內容。希望你已經看過《傑克瑞恩》和《羅曼諾夫一家》，很快你就會看到《了不起的麥瑟爾夫人》的後續季。Maisel，還有其他東西。希望您今晚回家後能看到《週四晚間足球賽》。

Yes, just on the -- this is Dave. Just on the AWS pricing philosophy. I mean just a reminder, the way to look at this, our pricing philosophy is work relentlessly, take costs out of our own cost structure and, when we can, pass savings on to the web services customers in the form of lower prices. So it's easy to lower prices, but it's much harder to be able to afford to lower prices. And that's something we work very hard in all our businesses, including AWS, to do that. So when you look at AWS now, we've lowered prices of 67x since we launched, including a few more in the last few months. So those periodic price reductions are a normal part of our business for us.

是的，這就是──戴夫。僅討論 AWS 定價理念。我只是提醒一下，看待這個問題的方式是，我們的定價理念是堅持不懈地工作，從我們自己的成本結構中剔除成本，並且盡可能地將節省下來的成本以較低的價格轉嫁給網絡服務客戶。因此，降低價格很容易，但負擔得起降低價格的代價卻困難得多。我們在包括 AWS 在內的所有業務中都努力實現這一目標。因此，當您現在查看 AWS 時，我們會發現自推出以來，我們已經將價格降低了 67 倍，其中包括過去幾個月的幾次降價。因此，定期降價是我們業務的正常組成部分。

Thank you for your call today and for your questions. A replay will be available on our IR website at least through the end of the quarter.

感謝您今天的來電和提問。重播將至少在本季末在我們的 IR 網站上提供。

We appreciate your interest in Amazon.com, and look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

感謝您對 Amazon.com 的關注，並期待下個季度再次與您交談。