American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to American Homes 4 Rent Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

問候。歡迎參加 American Homes 4 Rent 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Nick Fromm, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在將會議交給投資者關係部門的尼克·弗洛姆 (Nick Fromm)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With me today are David Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer; Bryan Smith, Chief Operating Officer; and Chris Lau, Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有執行長 David Singelyn；布萊恩‧史密斯，營運長；和財務長克里斯·劉（Chris Lau）。

Please be advised that this call may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this conference call are forward-looking statements that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. These risks and other factors that could adversely affect our business and future results are described in our press releases and in our filings with the SEC.

請注意，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議中除歷史事實陳述外的所有陳述均為前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。這些風險和其他可能對我們的業務和未來業績產生不利影響的因素在我們的新聞稿和向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了描述。

All forward-looking statements speak only as of today, November 3, 2023. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

所有前瞻性陳述僅截至今天，即 2023 年 11 月 3 日。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，除非法律要求。

A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings press release and supplemental information package. As note, our operating and financial results, including GAAP and non-GAAP measures, are fully detailed in our earnings release and supplemental information package. You can find these documents as well as SEC reports and the audio webcast replay of this conference call on our website at www.amh.com.

我們的收益新聞稿和補充資訊包中包含 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。請注意，我們的營運和財務表現（包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標）在我們的收益發布和補充資訊包中進行了詳細說明。您可以在我們的網站 www.amh.com 上找到這些文件以及 SEC 報告和本次電話會議的音訊網路廣播重播。

With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, David Singelyn.

接下來，我會將電話轉給我們的執行長 David Singelyn。

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Consistency, stability and predictability continued into the second half of the year as we posted another strong quarter. Robust rate growth and healthy occupancy remain above historical levels, which is a testament to the fundamentals of single-family rentals and the team's strong execution of our operational initiatives.

歡迎大家，感謝您今天加入我們。一致性、穩定性和可預測性持續到下半年，我們發布了另一個強勁的季度業績。強勁的成長率和健康的入住率仍然高於歷史水平，這證明了單戶租賃的基本面和團隊對我們營運計劃的強有力執行。

For the third quarter, we delivered $0.41 of core FFO per share or 6.6% growth over the same period last year. Due to these strong results and outlook for the rest of the year, we have raised our full year 2023 core FFO per share guidance by $0.01 at the midpoint to $1.65, representing 7.1% growth on a full year basis. Chris will add more details later in the call.

第三季度，我們每股核心 FFO 為 0.41 美元，比去年同期成長 6.6%。由於這些強勁的業績和今年剩餘時間的前景，我們將 2023 年全年核心 FFO 每股指引上調了 0.01 美元，達到 1.65 美元，相當於全年增長 7.1%。克里斯稍後將在電話中添加更多詳細資訊。

From a macro perspective, as we near the end of 2023 and begin looking towards next year, there is no question that the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. Over the past year, we have had the sharpest rise in interest rates in recent memory. The challenging inflationary environment continues to persist, and the pressure on consumer pocketbooks does not appear to be subsiding.

從宏觀角度來看，隨著2023年接近尾聲並開始展望明年，毫無疑問美國經濟前景仍存在不確定性。過去一年，我們的利率出現了近期記憶中最大幅度的上漲。充滿挑戰的通膨環境持續存在，消費者錢包的壓力似乎並未減輕。

However, this year, the single-family rental sector once again proved its resiliency. It continues to have some of the best fundamentals of all real estate sectors, supported by the ongoing national housing shortage, challenging home affordability dynamics and growing demand for the single-family rental lifestyle.

然而，今年獨棟租賃業再次證明了其韌性。在全國住房持續短缺、住房負擔能力面臨挑戰以及對單戶租賃生活方式不斷增長的需求的支持下，它仍然擁有所有房地產行業中最好的基本面。

Furthermore, thanks to our diversified portfolio footprint, superior operating platform and one-of-a-kind integrated development program, AMH has produced impressive results over the course of 2023. We are confident that next year will provide another mark of cyclical durability for the asset class and strength for the AMH platform.

此外，由於我們多元化的投資組合、卓越的營運平台和獨特的綜合開發計劃，AMH 在2023 年取得了令人印象深刻的業績。我們相信明年將為AMH 提供又一個週期性耐久性的標誌。 AMH 平台的資產類別和實力。

Turning to the investment front. Our disciplined and patient approach to growth remains unchanged. We are on track to deliver around 2,300 homes as this stable and predictable channel remains the backbone of our growth strategy.

轉向投資方面。我們紀律嚴明、耐心的成長方式保持不變。我們預計將交付約 2,300 套房屋，因為這種穩定且可預測的管道仍然是我們成長策略的支柱。

Conversely, acquisition market opportunities remain limited given resilient home values and the high cost of capital environment. Our teams are continuously assessing acquisition opportunities, and we are acquiring only when the economics make sense. We are prepared to take advantage of any opportunities in a more material way when conditions change.

相反，鑑於房屋價值的彈性和資本環境的高成本，收購市場機會仍然有限。我們的團隊不斷評估收購機會，並且只有在經濟合理的情況下我們才會進行收購。當情況改變時，我們準備以更物質的方式利用任何機會。

To capitalize on the current housing environment, we continue to be active on the disposition front. Our teams have done a terrific job executing sales through the first 3 quarters of the year. In addition to the portfolio optimization benefit, disposition proceeds represent a highly attractive form of funding in today's cost of capital environment.

為了利用當前的住房環境，我們繼續積極進行處置。我們的團隊在今年前三個季度的銷售執行方面做得非常出色。除了投資組合優化的好處外，處置收益在當今的資本成本環境中也是一種極具吸引力的融資形式。

Overall, this was a great quarter that demonstrates the power of the AMH platform. And thanks to consistent execution from our teams and resiliency of the single-family rental sector, we look forward to a strong close to 2023.

總體而言，這是一個出色的季度，展示了 AMH 平台的力量。由於我們團隊的一致執行力和單戶租賃行業的彈性，我們期待 2023 年的強勁表現。

Now I'll turn it over to Bryan for an update on our operations.

現在我將把它交給布萊恩，以了解我們運營的最新情況。

Thank you, Dave. Q3 was another solid quarter for AMH. Demand for a high-quality, well-located homes continue to drive seasonally strong occupancy and rate growth. Our team has done an excellent job navigating this year's peak turnover season, and we are well positioned as we finish 2023 and head into next year.

謝謝你，戴夫。第三季對 AMH 來說又是穩健的季度。對優質、位置優越的房屋的需求繼續推動季節性強勁的入住率和房價成長。我們的團隊在今年的營業額高峰季中表現出色，在 2023 年結束並邁入明年之際，我們已做好充分準備。

For the third quarter, we posted new renewal and blended rate growth in the Same-Home pool of 7.2%, 7.1% and 7.2%, respectively. Same-Home average occupied days remained healthy at 96.4%, which drove 5.8% core revenue growth for the quarter. These results were in line with our expectations and continue to remain significantly above historical averages for our portfolio.

第三季度，我們發布的同住池的新續約率和混合率成長率分別為 7.2%、7.1% 和 7.2%。同家平均入住天數維持在 96.4% 的健康水平，推動本季核心收入成長 5.8%。這些結果符合我們的預期，並且持續顯著高於我們投資組合的歷史平均值。

On the expense side, Same-Home core operating expense growth of 10.7% came in slightly better than our expectations.

在費用方面，Same-Home 核心營運費用成長 10.7%，略優於我們的預期。

Because of these results and our revised outlook on the fourth quarter, we have modestly reduced our full year expense growth guidance by 25 basis points.

由於這些結果以及我們對第四季度展望的修訂，我們將全年費用成長指引小幅下調了 25 個基點。

Please remember that the third quarter represents this year's final period of elevated property tax growth resulting from the timing of last year's accruals. All of this drove Same-Home core NOI growth of 3.2% for the quarter.

請記住，第三季是今年財產稅成長的最後一個時期，這是由於去年應計稅款的時間安排所致。所有這些推動該季度 Same-Home 核心 NOI 成長 3.2%。

Heading into the fourth quarter, both rate and occupancy in the Same-Home pool are trending as expected. October's new, renewal and blended spreads were 5%, 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively. And average occupied days was 96.2%. These blended spreads are more than 200 basis points higher, and occupancy is more than 100 basis points better than our long-term averages for this period.

進入第四季度，同屋池的房價和入住率趨勢均符合預期。 10 月的新利差、續約利差和混合利差分別為 5%、6.1% 和 5.8%。平均佔用天數為96.2%。這些混合利差比我們這段期間的長期平均高出 200 多個基點，入住率高出 100 多個基點。

Before I wrap up, I would like to provide a quick update on our Resident 360 program. The rollout is continuing as planned, and our fully staffed teams are completing the training and implementation stages.

在結束之前，我想快速介紹我們的 Resident 360 計劃的最新情況。部署正在按計劃繼續進行，我們配備齊全的團隊正在完成培訓和實施階段。

Although the program is still in its early phase, we are already starting to see the benefits of our resident-focused investments. Both internal and third-party resident surveys have shown marked improvement in maintenance satisfaction scores.

儘管該計劃仍處於早期階段，但我們已經開始看到以居民為中心的投資的好處。內部和第三方居民調查均顯示維護滿意度得分顯著提高。

In addition, our Google Review scores across the portfolio have improved. We look forward to realizing the extensive benefits of this program over time.

此外，我們整個產品組合的 Google 評量分數也有所提升。我們期待隨著時間的推移實現該計劃的廣泛好處。

In closing, we are very pleased with the results from the first 3 quarters of 2023 and are well positioned for a strong close to the year.

最後，我們對 2023 年前 3 季的業績感到非常滿意，並為今年的強勁收官做好了準備。

Now I'll turn the call over to Chris for an update on the financials.

現在我將把電話轉給克里斯，以了解最新的財務狀況。

Thanks, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover 3 areas in my comments today. First, a review of our quarterly results; second, an update on our balance sheet and capital plan; and third, I'll close with an update on our 2023 guidance, which was increased again in yesterday's earnings press release.

謝謝布萊恩，大家早安。我今天的評論將涵蓋 3 個領域。首先，回顧我們的季度業績；其次，我們的資產負債表和資本計畫的最新情況；第三，我將以 2023 年指導的最新情況作為結束語，該指導在昨天的收益新聞稿中再次上調。

Starting off with our operating results. The AMH platform produced another quarter of solid operational execution. Our teams did a great job navigating peak turnover season while continuing to capture ongoing robust demand for single-family rentals into seasonal occupancy and leasing spreads that remain above long-term historic averages.

從我們的經營業績開始。 AMH 平台又產生了一個季度可靠的營運執行力。我們的團隊在應對營業額高峰期方面表現出色，同時繼續將單戶租賃持續強勁的需求轉化為季節性入住率和租賃價差，仍高於長期歷史平均水平。

On an FFO per share and unit basis, we generated $0.41 of core FFO, representing 6.6% year-over-year growth and $0.35 of adjusted FFO, representing 7.1% year-over-year growth. Underlying this quarter was 3.2% year-over-year core NOI growth from our Same-Home portfolio as well as consistent execution from our development program, which delivered a total of 714 homes to our wholly owned and joint venture portfolios.

以每股和單位 FFO 計算，我們產生了 0.41 美元的核心 FFO，年增 6.6%；調整後的 FFO 0.35 美元，年增 7.1%。本季的基礎是我們的 Same-Home 投資組合的核心 NOI 年成長 3.2%，以及我們開發計畫的持續執行，該計畫為我們的全資和合資投資組合交付了總共 714 套住宅。

Outside of development, as Dave mentioned, our traditional and national builder acquisition programs continued to remain largely on hold. And we had another active disposition quarter selling 224 properties at an average cap rate in the mid-3% area, generating approximately $72 million of net proceeds.

正如戴夫所提到的，除了開發之外，我們的傳統和國家建築商收購計劃仍然基本上處於擱置狀態。我們在另一個積極的處置季度以 3% 左右的平均資本化率出售了 224 處房產，產生了約 7,200 萬美元的淨收益。

Next, I'd like to share a quick update on our balance sheet and capital plan. At the end of the quarter, our net debt, including preferred shares to adjusted EBITDA, was 5.4x. We had approximately $70 million of cash on the balance sheet, and our $1.25 billion revolving credit facility was fully undrawn.

接下來，我想分享我們的資產負債表和資本計畫的快速更新。截至本季末，我們的淨負債（包括優先股與調整後 EBITDA 比率）為 5.4 倍。我們的資產負債表上大約有 7,000 萬美元的現金，我們的 12.5 億美元的循環信貸額度已完全未提取。

From an overall 2023 capital plan perspective, we remain on track to deliver between 2,200 and 2,400 total AMH Development homes and invest between $900 million and $1 billion of total AMH capital, which contemplates this year's newly constructed home deliveries as well as ongoing investments into our development pipeline, joint ventures and property-enhancing CapEx programs.

從2023 年整體資本計畫的角度來看，我們仍有望交付2,200 至2,400 套AMH 開發房屋，並投資9 億至10 億美元的AMH 資本總額，其中考慮了今年新建房屋的交付以及對我們的持續投資。開發管道、合資企業和房地產增強資本支出計劃。

Before we open the call to your questions, I'll cover our updated 2023 guidance, which was increased again in yesterday's earnings press release. Simply put, the AMH machine is performing at a high level.

在我們開始回答大家的問題之前，我將介紹我們更新的 2023 年指引，該指引在昨天的收益新聞稿中再次增加。簡而言之，AMH 機器的效能很高。

Our technology-centric leasing platform continues to capture the robust demand for single-family rental housing, sustaining occupancy and leasing spreads well above long-term historic averages. And despite the ongoing inflationary environment, the AMH operating platform and our focus on innovative investments are producing controllable expense results that are tracking better than our previous expectations.

我們以技術為中心的租賃平台繼續抓住對單戶租賃住房的強勁需求，維持入住率和租賃價差遠高於長期歷史平均水平。儘管通貨膨脹環境持續存在，但 AMH 營運平台和我們對創新投資的關注正在產生可控的費用結果，其追蹤情況比我們之前的預期要好。

With that in mind, coupled with our unchanged full year property tax outlook, we have lowered the midpoint of our full year Same-Home core operating expense growth by 25 basis points to 9.5%. And in turn, we've also increased the midpoint of our full year Same-Home core NOI growth expectations to 4.9%.

考慮到這一點，加上我們全年財產稅前景不變，我們將全年同居核心營運費用成長中點下調了 25 個基點至 9.5%。反過來，我們也將全年 Same-Home 核心 NOI 成長預期的中點提高至 4.9%。

Contemplating our improved controllable expense outlook across the entire portfolio, along with slightly better-than-expected interest income on cash generated from our robust disposition activity, we have increased the midpoint of our full year 2023 core FFO expectations to $1.65 per share, which now represents a year-over-year growth expectation of 7.1%.

考慮到我們整個投資組合的可控費用前景有所改善，以及我們強勁的處置活動產生的現金利息收入略好於預期，我們將2023 年全年核心FFO 預期的中點提高至每股1.65 美元，現在預計將年增7.1%。

To close, I'd like to reiterate that this has been another solid quarter, underscored by seasonally strong occupancy and rate growth. And despite the uncertain U.S. economic outlook, AMH continues to be in a great position as we close out 2023, thanks to our diversified portfolio footprint, superior operating platform and one-of-a-kind integrated development program.

最後，我想重申，這是又一個穩健的季度，季節性強勁的入住率和房價成長凸顯了這一點。儘管美國經濟前景不明朗，但憑藉我們多元化的投資組合、卓越的營運平台和獨特的綜合開發計劃，AMH 在 2023 年即將結束時仍處於有利地位。

And with that, we'll open the call to your questions. Operator?

接下來，我們將開始回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

First question, just curious on thoughts on your 2024 debt maturities.

第一個問題，只是想知道您對 2024 年債務到期日的看法。

I know your balance sheet is in great place with the unused line. But just what you're contemplating in terms of refinancing those expirations in 2024, if you could just give us a sense of when that happens throughout the year.

我知道你的資產負債表上有未使用的行。但是，如果您能讓我們了解全年何時會發生這種情況，那麼您正在考慮為 2024 年到期的產品進行再融資。

Yes. Perfect. Great question, Juan. It's Chris here. As you can imagine, topic, very top of mind for us, something that we're watching very closely. In general, I would say that our message is pretty similar to our message from prior quarters in that our plan all along has been to refinance our securitizations out into the unsecured bond market, really working our way towards a fully unencumbered balance sheet.

是的。完美的。好問題，胡安。克里斯在這裡。正如你可以想像的那樣，這個話題是我們最關心的話題，我們正在密切關注。總的來說，我想說，我們的資訊與前幾季的資訊非常相似，因為我們的計劃一直是將我們的證券化再融資到無擔保債券市場，真正努力實現完全不受阻礙的資產負債表。

The additional consideration at this point, however, is given some of the recent success we've been seeing in the disposition market, especially relative to today's cost of debt, we may have an opportunity to address a portion of next year's maturities with some level of disposition capital. But realistically, this will depend on some of our disposition volumes over the next quarter or 2.

然而，在這一點上，考慮到我們最近在處置市場上看到的一些成功，特別是相對於今天的債務成本，我們可能有機會以某種程度解決明年到期的部分問題的處置資本。但實際上，這將取決於我們在下一季或第二季的一些處置量。

And then to your question, from a timing perspective, keep in mind that our 2024 maturities, they open up for repayment without penalty starting this fourth quarter of this year but don't actually mature until the end of 2024. So we have a very nice wide window to be opportunistic, but also find the right timing over the course of next year so that we're not unnecessarily pushing our timing too close to actual maturity.

然後，對於你的問題，從時間角度來看，請記住，我們2024 年到期，從今年第四季開始，它們可以無罰金還款，但實際上要到2024 年底才會到期。所以我們有一個非常這是一個很好的機會主義窗口，但也要在明年找到合適的時機，這樣我們就不會不必要地將時機推得太接近實際成熟度。

Great. And then just -- I think you kind of commented on this a little bit on the prepared remarks with regards to the investments in the systems, et cetera. Just curious on how we should think about the growth off of the '23 base just to think about what kind of cost inflation we should expect in '24 for G&A and other operating expense line items.

偉大的。然後，我認為您在準備好的有關係統投資等方面的評論中對此進行了一些評論。只是好奇我們應該如何考慮 23 年基數的成長，只是想想我們應該預期 24 年的 G&A 和其他營運費用項目會出現什麼樣的成本通膨。

Juan, this is Bryan. Yes, very good question. The major investment that we made this year was into our Resident 360 program. And that, just as a reminder, was an investment into doing more of our own work in the field, as an example, improving customer service from our property managers. A lot of it had to do with operational initiatives.

胡安，這是布萊恩。是的，非常好的問題。我們今年的主要投資是 Resident 360 計劃。提醒一下，這是對我們在該領域進行更多工作的投資，例如，改善我們的物業經理的客戶服務。其中許多與營運措施有關。

And that program is fully staffed. We're finalizing the training and implementation phases. But the majority of the costs, at least from the personnel side, are in 2023 numbers. So I wouldn't expect a major increase in 2024 for that program.

該計劃人員配備齊全。我們正在完成培訓和實施階段。但大部分成本（至少在人員方面）是 2023 年的數字。因此，我預計 2024 年該計劃不會大幅成長。

Our next question is from Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Dennerlein。

Appreciate all the comments on the elevated taxes through 3Q this year given the accruals from last year. But any kind of color or insights you can give on where tax bills are coming in now?

考慮到去年的應計費用，感謝所有關於今年第三季增稅的評論。但對於現在的稅單在哪裡，您可以提供任何顏色或見解嗎？

Sure. Josh, Chris here. Just taking a step back, general update, and I kind of touched on this at a high level in my prepared remarks, but no different than past years. At this point now, we have values, including post-appeal information for the majority of the portfolio. And then although we're still waiting on official tax bills for a majority of the portfolio, we're beginning to receive initial indications on millage rates in a number of locations, including certain counties in some of our largest markets like Texas and Florida and Georgia.

當然。喬什，克里斯在這裡。退一步來說，總體更新，我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，但與過去幾年沒有什麼不同。現在，我們已經有了數值，包括大部分投資組合的上訴後資訊。然後，儘管我們仍在等待大部分投資組合的官方稅單，但我們已經開始收到許多地點的里程費率的初步跡象，包括德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州等我們最大市場的某些縣，以及喬治亞州。

So keep in mind, we still need to receive final information over the next couple of months. But at this point, we're not seeing any data outside of our range of expectations, which, as a reminder, has a 9% midpoint that just, as a reminder, is developed on a county-by-county basis all across the portfolio.

因此請記住，我們仍然需要在接下來的幾個月內收到最終訊息。但目前，我們沒有看到任何超出我們預期範圍的數據，提醒一下，該數據的中點為 9%，提醒一下，該數據是在全國各縣的基礎上製定的。文件夾。

Okay. Appreciate that, Chris. And then the Resident 360 that you guys are rolling out, just kind of what should we look for as outsiders as far as like its impact to the platform? Like is there any kind of metrics we should focus in on over the next kind of 12 months?

好的。很欣賞這一點，克里斯。然後你們推出的 Resident 360，身為局外人我們應該關注它對平台的影響嗎？例如在接下來的 12 個月我們應該關注哪些指標？

Yes, Josh, this is Bryan. The Resident 360 program is really all-encompassing focus on the resident experience. So we expect to see, over time, improvements in retention, better ability to control costs and, most importantly, improvements in the resident experience that will help us differentiate ourselves from others.

是的，喬什，這是布萊恩。 Resident 360 計畫確實全面關注居民體驗。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們期望看到留存率的提高、控製成本的能力的提高，以及最重要的是，居民體驗的改善，這將有助於我們在競爭中脫穎而出。

The early indications are that the program is working very well. One of the measures that we follow are Google Review scores, and we've seen improvements across the Board to industry-leading levels for those scores. So early indications are that it's working well. We're looking forward to seeing the impact on retention and cost control in the future, but we're real happy with the current progress.

早期跡象表明該計劃運作良好。我們遵循的衡量標準之一是 Google 評論分數，我們已經看到這些分數全面提高到行業領先水平。早期跡象表明它運作良好。我們期待看到未來對保留和成本控制的影響，但我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。

Our next question is from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）。

Just curious based on your guidance, any sense for where your loss-to-lease and earn-in will be at year-end?

只是好奇根據您的指導，您對年底的租賃損失和收益有何意義？

Yes, Eric, this is Bryan. Currently, our loss-to-lease is sitting in the 4% area, and we expect 2024 earn-in to be in the low 3s.

是的，艾瑞克，這是布萊恩。目前，我們的租賃損失處於 4% 左右，我們預計 2024 年的利潤將在 3% 左右。

Okay. And so the loss-to-lease by the end of year probably just be a little bit lower than that low 4%. Just historically, it probably comes down like 1% or something by the end of the year, so you'll be like close to 3%?

好的。因此，到年底的租賃損失可能只比 4% 的低水準低一點點。從歷史上看，到年底可能會下降 1% 左右，所以會接近 3%？

Yes. I think I had a little trouble hearing you there, but I think you were talking about the direction of the loss-to-lease. We saw a slight reduction in the last quarter, and that's compressed a little bit because of the success that we've had on the renewals really. So if it continues to shrink, it will be nominal. But we're looking forward to really good momentum into next year.

是的。我想我在聽你講話時有點困難，但我認為你正在談論租賃損失的方向。我們在上個季度看到了輕微的減少，並且由於我們在續訂方面取得的成功而被壓縮了一點。因此，如果繼續萎縮，那將是名義上的。但我們期待著明年的良好勢頭。

Our next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

First one, Bryan, I just -- I couldn't write all the numbers down quickly. Could you just repeat the October new, renewal, blended? And then could you just give us a sense for where you're sending out renewal notices for, say, November -- where renewals went out for, say, November, December?

第一個，布萊恩，我只是——我無法快速寫下所有數字。你能重複十月的新、更新、混合嗎？然後您能否讓我們了解一下您在哪裡發送了 11 月的續訂通知 - 例如 11 月、12 月的續訂通知在哪裡發出？

Sure. Thanks, Steve. So the October numbers, new class spreads were 5%; our renewal leases, 6.1%; and blended was 5.8%. And then in regards to what we've said for November and December, we've mailed in the 6s. And we're expecting the final results to be similar to what we saw in October.

當然。謝謝，史蒂夫。因此，10 月的數據顯示，新班級利差為 5%；我們的續租，6.1%；混合後為5.8%。然後，關於我們所說的 11 月和 12 月的情況，我們已經在 6 天內郵寄了。我們預計最終結果將與 10 月的情況類似。

Okay. And then maybe just on the development program as you kind of look into next year, I know it's early to think about full guidance, but just would you expect that program to ramp? And where would you be pegging, I guess, development yields today on things that you'd be starting for next year?

好的。然後，也許只是在您展望明年的開發計劃上，我知道現在考慮全面指導還為時過早，但您是否希望該計劃能夠加速？我想，你會把今天的開發收益與明年開始的事情掛鉤嗎？

Steve, it's Dave. So on the first part of that question, which is sizing, we have capacity and we have a pipeline that we can significantly grow the development program. The moderator is going to be capital. And so we will size the program appropriately against the capital that is available. We want to be prudent capital allocators in that program.

史蒂夫，我是戴夫。因此，關於該問題的第一部分，即規模，我們有能力，也有管道可以顯著擴大開發計劃。主持人就要資本了。因此，我們將根據可用資本適當調整計劃規模。我們希望成為該計劃中審慎的資本配置者。

As it sits today, I would expect that program to be somewhere in the same area as where it is today, funding it primarily through retained cash flow and recycled capital from our dispositions.

就目前情況而言，我預計該計劃將位於與今天相同的地區，主要透過保留的現金流和我們處置中的回收資本為其提供資金。

When you talk about yields, we talked about this in the prior quarters. We had talked about moving to the 6% area. We already had cost in a number of the properties. We were in the mid-5s for both the first and second quarter. And now we are in the high 5s for the third quarter. So a nice improvement there. And we're still on track moving into or towards the 6% area, and that's where I would expect we would start the year next year.

當您談論收益率時，我們在前幾個季度討論過這一點。我們曾討論過遷移到 6% 區域的問題。我們已經對一些房產進行了成本計算。第一節和第二節我們的成績都在5分左右。現在我們在第三季處於前五名。所以這是一個很好的改進。我們仍然走在進入或接近 6% 區域的軌道上，我預計這就是我們明年開始的位置。

Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。

So first question, maybe for Chris, I was hoping you could just shed some light on the increase in bad debt in the quarter, the drivers there and when you expect broadly to get back to the long-term average.

所以第一個問題，也許對克里斯來說，我希望你能透露一些關於本季壞帳增加的情況、那裡的驅動因素以及你預計何時會恢復到長期平均水平。

Look, in general, I would remind everyone that bad debt will naturally fluctuate over the course of the year, especially when we're talking about the third quarter, which traditionally experiences slightly higher bad debt associated with seasonal move-outs. But overall, third quarter bad debt once again landed pretty consistent with what we were expecting, leaving our full year expectations unchanged in the low 1% area.

總的來說，我想提醒大家，壞帳在一年中自然會波動，特別是當我們談論第三季時，傳統上該季度的壞帳會因季節性搬出而略高。但總體而言，第三季壞帳再次與我們的預期相當一致，使我們的全年預期保持在 1% 的低位區域不變。

And we're in that area, as we've talked about a number of times, as we continue to still have a number of court systems across the country moving slower than normal. That's holding bad debt modestly above our long-term run rate, which if everyone recalls, is in, call it, 100 basis points or slightly below area.

正如我們多次談到的那樣，我們正處於這個領域，因為全國各地的許多法院系統的進展仍然比正常情況慢。這意味著壞帳率略高於我們的長期運行利率，如果每個人都記得的話，那就是100個基點或略低於該區域。

Got it. Appreciate that. Dave, maybe one for you, just thinking more broadly on transaction in the portfolio. We know the MLS inventory is tight. I guess, I'm more curious about the landscape opportunities to buy from midsized private operators. I'm curious, are you getting more inbound, any sense that there might be more inclined to cash in here? And then more broadly, what percent of the portfolio, maybe the legacy portfolio, do you think you'd be open to selling and maybe upgrading via some trades here?

知道了。感謝。戴夫，也許適合你，只是更廣泛地思考投資組合中的交易。我們知道木林森庫存緊張。我想，我對從中型私人業者那裡購買的景觀機會更好奇。我很好奇，您入境的人數是否越來越多，有沒有感覺到可能會更傾向於在這裡兌現？然後更廣泛地說，您認為您願意出售投資組合（也許是遺留投資組合）的百分之幾，或者透過這裡的某些交易進行升級？

Yes. So the acquisition market -- just talk maybe about 2 pieces of it. The acquisition market on one-offs, you're 100% right. It is basically at a price point that for us is not acceptable and not tradable. We bought a total of 8 homes in the third quarter. We underwrote between national homebuilders and all third-party opportunities over 22,000 homes, and we found 8 that met our quality criteria as well as the economic criteria.

是的。所以收購市場——也許只談其中的兩個部分。收購市場是一次性的，你是100%正確的。它基本上處於我們無法接受且不可交易的價格點。第三季我們總共購買了8套房屋。我們在全國住宅建築商和所有第三方機會之間承保了超過 22,000 套房屋，我們發現 8 套符合我們的品質標準和經濟標準。

With respect to acquisitions of portfolios, I don't -- I wouldn't say it's picked up, but there are some that are being talked about and shopped. And the first thing that we look at is what is the quality of those assets, where are those assets, what is the age of the assets, and what are the characteristics. Are they detached homes? Are they 3 bedrooms or greater?

關於投資組合的收購，我不會說它已經被收購，但有一些正在被討論和購買。我們首先要看的是這些資產的品質是什麼，這些資產在哪裡，資產的年齡是多少，有什麼特徵。他們是獨立屋嗎？是 3 間臥室或更多嗎？

And the portfolios, for the most part, that we are seeing either don't meet those quality criteria or -- and this is true for both the portfolios as well as the one-offs. The ones that we underwrote were typically in the high 4s as a yield. And with very, very few in the 5s, as I said, we only found 8 that we could transact on that met our criteria.

在大多數情況下，我們看到的投資組合要么不符合這些品質標準，要么——對於投資組合和一次性投資組合都是如此。我們承銷的債券殖利率通常在 4 左右。正如我所說，在 5 以內的情況非常非常少，我們只發現 8 個符合我們標準的可以進行交易。

Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

So this was the first quarter or even kind of the first last 6 weeks or so where you saw the multifamily companies finally see some pain on supply. Sounds like developers hitting -- the 10 year hitting 5% and developers panicking a little bit impacted business conditions.

因此，這是第一季度，甚至是過去 6 週左右的時間，你會看到多戶住宅公司終於看到了供應方面的一些痛苦。聽起來開發商正在遭遇打擊——10 年增長率達到 5%，開發商的恐慌對商業狀況產生了一些影響。

So I would think this would also be the first time you might see some impact of either tenants staying, deciding to stay in multifamily for longer before moving to single-family or maybe using some of those types of properties as a pricing comp. Have you seen any change in business conditions since the 10-year hit 5% or even as there's been more concern about consumer credit, credit card balances growing and some of the other signs we're seeing in the economy about the consumer over the last month or so?

因此，我認為這也將是您第一次看到租戶留下來的一些影響，決定在搬到單戶住宅之前在多戶住宅中停留更長時間，或者可能使用其中一些類型的房產作為定價比較。自 10 年增長率達到 5% 以來，您是否看到商業狀況發生任何變化？一個月左右？

Yes. Jamie, it's Dave. When we talk about single-family fundamentals, first, they are different than multifamily. The customer is going to be slightly different. The resident profile will be slightly different.

是的。傑米，我是戴夫。當我們談論單戶住宅的基本原理時，首先，它們與多戶住宅不同。客戶會略有不同。居民資料會略有不同。

And your statements are correct, but I also would add a few other statements. And that is this country has a huge housing shortage, 1 million-plus households don't have quality housing.

你的說法是正確的，但我還要補充一些其他的說法。那就是這個國家住房嚴重短缺，100萬多戶家庭沒有優質住房。

And the one thing that is coming to -- more into light is the affordability question. And today, it's 28% more affordable in our markets to rent than it is to buy a home today. And so residents are staying longer. That is true, but the demand remains very, very strong.

越來越明顯的一件事是負擔能力問題。如今，我們市場上租房的價格比買房便宜 28%。因此居民停留的時間越來越長。確實如此，但需求仍然非常非常強勁。

And with respect to tenant health, we've been through this. We went through COVID where tenant health was of concern. And our systems are set to monitor that and to communicate with residents as they have concerns. And we'll work out acceptable and mutually beneficial solutions. And there is significant demand behind them. So today, I see the market being where it was in prior quarters. It's still very strong, very solid demand out there.

在租戶健康方面，我們已經經歷過這個問題。我們經歷了新冠疫情，租戶的健康受到關注。我們的系統將對此進行監控，並在居民有疑慮時與他們進行溝通。我們將制定出可接受且互利的解決方案。它們背後有龐大的需求。所以今天，我認為市場與前幾季相同。那裡的需求仍然非常強勁、非常穩定。

Okay. And then our team has been thinking a lot about the different performance among your development assets versus your acquisition of legacy assets. Are you able to give some color around the different either CapEx profile, operating expense profile, even blended rent growth profile of your development assets versus the nondevelopment assets in the portfolio?

好的。然後，我們的團隊一直在思考您的開發資產與收購遺留資產之間的不同效能。您是否能夠對投資組合中的開發資產與非開發資產的不同資本支出概況、營運費用概況，甚至混合租金成長概況進行一些說明？

Yes, Jamie, this is Bryan. That's a very good question. We're obviously tracking that as well. The AMH Development homes are starting to come into the Same-Home portfolio. And what we've noticed is it's really playing out as we expected. These homes are quicker to turn, lower cash to cash, quicker to get back up and re-lease. So that part is playing out as expected.

是的，傑米，這是布萊恩。這是一個非常好的問題。我們顯然也在追蹤這一點。 AMH 開發住宅開始納入 Same-Home 投資組合。我們注意到，事情確實按照我們的預期進行。這些房屋的周轉速度更快，現金成本更低，恢復和重新出租也更快。所以這部分正在如預期進行。

On the CapEx side, the expectations are that CapEx will be really low in these new houses. They're built to be durable and they're new, and that's playing true almost across the Board. So from a CapEx and expense profile perspective, it's playing out as we expected. And then on the turns and speed and occupancy side, we're seeing nice benefits there as well.

在資本支出方面，預計這些新房的資本支出將非常低。它們經久耐用且新穎，幾乎在所有方面都是如此。因此，從資本支出和費用狀況的角度來看，它的表現正如我們預期的那樣。然後在轉彎、速度和佔用率方面，我們也看到了很好的好處。

Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

The last 3 years have been anything but normal. But from here, do you see 2019 as a good benchmark for what normal looks like? Or have you seen changes in macro and demand factors that changed the profile? And how does that impact how we should think about rent spreads as we move into the end of the year?

過去三年的情況一點也不正常。但從這裡來看，您認為 2019 年是正常情況的良好基準嗎？或者您看到宏觀和需求因素的變化改變了概況？當我們進入年底時，這對我們如何看待租金利差有何影響？

Yes, Michael, this is Bryan. That's a great question. The last 3 years have been a little different, I would say. But when we're talking about comparing how we performed in 2023 to historical averages, we're looking at the '17, '18, '19 period. And the most interesting thing is that with return to seasonality that we're seeing now, the seasonal curve looks very similar to what it looked like before, except the bar has been raised. And the bar has been raised both from an occupancy perspective and from a rate growth perspective. I talked about those in my opening remarks.

是的，邁克爾，這是布萊恩。這是一個很好的問題。我想說，過去三年有點不一樣。但當我們談論將 2023 年的表現與歷史平均值進行比較時，我們關注的是 17、18、19 年時期。最有趣的是，隨著我們現在看到的季節性回歸，季節性曲線看起來與以前非常相似，只是標準已經提高了。從入住率和成長率的角度來看，門檻都提高了。我在開場白中談到了這些。

And I think that's a result of a number of different things. First, I believe that the single-family rental value proposition is finally being appreciated. There was an acceleration of that during the COVID period. And I think that's here to stay, where the experience is very different than what you could find in that industry prior to the institutions coming in and providing a real focus on the resident experience. So there's been a fundamental change there. Migration patterns have played very nicely into better performance in our portfolio. So there are a number of macro things that are helping us change the way we expect to perform relative to pre-pandemic.

我認為這是多種不同因素共同作用的結果。首先，我相信單戶住宅的租賃價值主張最終會受到重視。在新冠疫情期間，這種情況加速了。我認為這種情況將會持續下去，這種體驗與機構進入並真正關注居民體驗之前在該行業中所能找到的體驗非常不同。所以那裡發生了根本性的變化。遷移模式在我們的產品組合中發揮了很好的作用，並且取得了更好的表現。因此，有許多宏觀因素正在幫助我們改變相對於大流行前的預期表現。

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds like you believe that, that is structural and not temporary, correct?

我不想把話放在你嘴裡，但聽起來你相信，這是結構性的，而不是暫時的，對嗎？

Yes, I believe that's the case. We've had improvements in execution and improvements in appreciation for that value proposition.

是的，我相信情況就是如此。我們在執行上取得了進步，而對這價值主張的欣賞也有了進步。

And as a follow-up question, have you seen any changes in consumer behavior? Are they pushing back on rent increases? Are you seeing more price sensitivity around signing new leases or more move-outs due to rent increases in the last several months?

作為後續問題，您是否看到消費者行為有任何變化？他們會抵制租金上漲嗎？您是否認為簽署新租約對價格更加敏感，或者由於過去幾個月租金上漲而導致更多搬出？

Yes. I think the easiest way to look at it is the health of the applicants coming in. We've seen incomes, as an example, in Q3 '23 versus '22 increase more than the rents for the homes that they were applying for. So there's really good help there.

是的。我認為最簡單的衡量方法是申請者的健康狀況。例如，我們已經看到，23 年第三季與 22 年第三季的收入增幅超過了他們申請的房屋的租金增幅。所以那裡確實有很好的幫助。

The story is there's so much demand for our product that health is really continuing. In terms of existing residents negotiating more than they have in the past, if you look at the improvements, I talked about the difference before, between today and pre-pandemic in terms of the movement of that bell curve. Keep in mind that our retention is way up from where it was pre-pandemic. So these existing residents are renewing at a higher rate even though their rents have increased more than they had in the past.

故事是對我們產品的需求如此之大，以至於健康確實在持續。就現有居民比過去更多的談判而言，如果你看看這些改進，我談到了之前、今天和大流行前在鐘形曲線運動方面的差異。請記住，我們的保留率比疫情前的水平要高得多。因此，儘管這些現有居民的租金比過去上漲了更多，但他們的續約率卻更高。

Our next question is from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Kramer。

Wanted to ask on the kind of the disposition side. When you're kind of selling homes, again, to the extent that you kind of get a sense for it, who are the end buyers, right? Are you selling homes on the MLS to kind of end users, right? Obviously, that's a tight market. So it seems like there will be good opportunities there. Are you selling to other institutions to maybe mom-and-pops who subsequently rent out the homes? Are we just interested kind of given what's going on in the housing market to hear about, learn about what's happening on the disposition side.

想問一下性格方面怎麼樣。當你出售房屋時，再一次，只要你有所了解，誰是最終買家，對嗎？您是否在 MLS 上向最終用戶出售房屋，對吧？顯然，這是一個緊張的市場。所以看起來那裡會有很好的機會。您是否將房屋出售給其他機構，也許是夫妻店，然後他們將房屋出租？我們是否只是對房地產市場正在發生的事情感興趣，了解處置方面發生的事情？

Yes, Adam, it's Dave. Yes, I would agree with your premise. We're selling today entirely on the MLS to end users and selling the homes when they're vacant. Today, the demand from other operators, other managers is significantly less than we have seen in the past.

是的，亞當，是戴夫。是的，我同意你的前提。今天，我們完全透過 MLS 向最終用戶出售房屋，並在房屋空置時出售。如今，其他操作員、其他管理人員的需求明顯少於我們過去看到的情況。

But the demand for homes with the lack of supply on the MLS makes the demand very, very strong. We are selling homes that we identified through our asset management process. The time on market is short. We're selling at 99% of asking price, and we're selling them at prices that are yielding mid-3s today. And so a very, very attractive source of capital. And it's a good recycling of the portfolio to keep expenses where we want them in the future.

但由於 MLS 供應不足，對房屋的需求使得需求非常非常強勁。我們正在出售透過資產管理流程確定的房屋。上市時間很短。我們以要價的 99% 出售，並以今天 3 美元左右的價格出售。這是一個非常非常有吸引力的資本來源。這是對投資組合的良好回收，可以將支出控制在我們未來想要的地方。

And then maybe just a follow-up. I think it's been kind of widely reported that a peer of yours is looking into getting into third-party management of other people's assets. I know it's something that you guys have talked about in the past, although probably haven't heard about it from you guys in a few quarters at this point. Wondering if it's something that you would look at if you are looking at or maybe kind of what development and obviously running kind of the internal portfolio, maybe it's just something kind of not high on the list.

然後也許只是後續行動。我認為有廣泛報導稱，您的一位同行正在考慮進入他人資產的第三方管理領域。我知道你們過去曾談論過這個問題，儘管目前可能已經有幾個季度沒有從你們那裡聽說過這件事了。想知道如果您正在考慮這是否是您會關注的東西，或者可能是某種內部投資組合的開發和明顯運行類型，也許這只是列表中不靠前的東西。

Yes. Adam, we have looked at this. If you go back a couple of years, I think there was a little bit of talk on these calls about evaluating third party that we talked about that it was an evaluation moat. Initially, we thought the program was very, very compelling. It was going to be able to generate a lot of incremental income without committing much of our balance sheet to the program.

是的。亞當，我們已經研究過了。如果你回到幾年前，我認為在這些電話會議上有一些關於評估第三方的討論，我們談到這是一條評估護城河。最初，我們認為這個計劃非常非常引人注目。它將能夠產生大量增量收入，而無需將我們的大部分資產負債表投入該計劃。

So we evaluated it for more than 2 years. We have tested it with a number of institutional relationships. And what we found was this, the margins that we were getting were a lot lower than what we were expecting going into the program. There is significant amount of incremental cost to manage the owners to produce the unique reporting that they desired. And all of the different owners had unique expectations. And that, in part, created distractions. And those distractions were of concern that they would impact the core business, which is really where we make our money. So with the limited synergies and the distractions, we made the decision, at this time, this is not a platform that we are pursuing.

所以我們評估了2年多。我們已經透過一些機構關係對其進行了測試。我們發現，我們獲得的利潤遠低於我們對該計劃的預期。管理所有者以產生他們想要的獨特報告需要大量的增量成本。所有不同的業主都有獨特的期望。這在一定程度上造成了乾擾。人們擔心這些幹擾會影響核心業務，而這才是我們真正賺錢的地方。因此，在有限的綜效和乾擾下，我們做出了決定，此時，這不是我們追求的平台。

Our next question is from Alan Peterson with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Alan Peterson。

Chris, you mentioned controllables are benefiting '23 expenses. But can you give us a sense on the tax appeals that you guys filed over the course of the year and if you're seeing any benefit to expenses from those or if you anticipate any benefit into next year from those tax appeals as well?

克里斯，您提到可控因素正在使 '23 支出受益。但是，您能否讓我們了解一下你們在這一年中提出的稅務上訴，以及您是否認為這些稅務上訴對支出有任何好處，或者您預計明年這些稅務上訴也會帶來任何好處？

Yes. Sure, Alan. The latest update is, as we were expecting, this has been a very heavy appeals volume year for us. At this point, we have filed something in the ballpark of over 23,000 individual appeals. We've heard back on a good number of those. Not all of them are back in hand yet. But at this point, the important piece that we've been watching closely is the Texas appeals process. And at this point, we're now pretty much through appeals in Texas.

是的。當然，艾倫。最新的更新是，正如我們所預期的那樣，今年對我們來說是上訴量非常大的一年。目前，我們已提交了約 23,000 份個人申訴。我們收到了很多這樣的回覆。並非所有人都回到了手中。但目前，我們一直密切關注的重要部分是德州的上訴程序。至此，我們在德州的上訴工作基本上已經完成。

And as we were expecting, we did see a higher post-appeal value than we were originally contemplating at the start of the year. We've talked about this in past quarters. And we expect that to likely be offset by this year's property tax relief rate reductions when those bills get officially released over the next couple of months or so, which continues just to be another component of our unchanged full year property tax outlook of 9% at the midpoint.

正如我們所預期的那樣，我們確實看到了上訴後的價值比我們年初最初設想的要高。我們在過去幾個季度已經討論過這個問題。我們預計，當這些法案在未來幾個月左右正式發佈時，今年的財產稅減免稅率的降低可能會抵消這一影響，這仍然是我們維持不變的全年財產稅展望（9%）的另一個組成部分。中點。

And then I would just add, in Texas, even though this year is likely going to be a push, as we think about the benefit of the property tax relief rate reductions and the fact that those are going to be in place through next year, to the extent we continue to see moderation in home values translating into potentially values in Texas, we see that as being potentially a positive read-through into next year just in terms of level of property tax growth.

然後我想補充一點，在德克薩斯州，儘管今年可能會是一個推動力，因為我們考慮了財產稅減免率降低的好處以及這些減免率將在明年實施的事實，在某種程度上，我們繼續看到德州房價的溫和轉化為潛在價值，我們認為，就財產稅成長水準而言，這可能對明年有正面的影響。

Understood. Appreciate that. And maybe just shifting over to the topline and the performance that you guys are seeing in your markets. Southwest is a little bit weaker than the Southeast. Bryan, can you give us a sense for what's driving some of the underperformance in markets like Las Vegas or San Antonio, for example?

明白了。感謝。也許只是轉向營收和你們在市場上看到的表現。西南地區比東南地區弱一些。布萊恩，您能否讓我們了解一下是什麼導致了拉斯維加斯或聖安東尼奧等市場表現不佳？

Yes. Thanks, Alan. I think the easiest way to look at it is there's been some increased supply in a few of the markets. San Antonio comes to the top of the list. We see this increase in supply, especially for our well-located homes, to be kind of temporary in nature.

是的。謝謝，艾倫。我認為最簡單的觀察方法是一些市場的供應增加。聖安東尼奧位居榜首。我們認為供應的增加，特別是對於我們位置優越的房屋來說，本質上是暫時的。

Specifically in Las Vegas, we've seen a little bit of a pullback on rent growth, but occupancy has rebounded nicely in October. So we're already seeing a little bit of a reversal there. I would expect that with migration patterns out of California for Las Vegas to be very healthy for a really long time to come.

特別是在拉斯維加斯，我們看到租金成長略有回落，但十月的入住率出現了良好的反彈。所以我們已經看到了一些逆轉。我預計，從加州到拉斯維加斯的移民模式在未來很長一段時間內都會非常健康。

Yes. Alan, it's Dave. Let me just add a couple of points. This is a short-term absorption issue on additional supply. This is not something that is new to 2023. We have seen this a couple of times already in Phoenix. We've seen it in Charlotte. And it's very short term as homes come on. And as soon as they're absorbed, we have gone back to very, very strong fundamentals.

是的。艾倫，是戴夫。讓我補充幾點。這是額外供應的短期吸收問題。這對 2023 年來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我們已經在鳳凰城見過幾次這種情況了。我們在夏洛特看到過這種情況。而且隨著房屋的建成，這是非常短期的。一旦它們被吸收，我們就回到了非常非常強大的基本面。

The underlying fundamentals of both of those or all of those cities is still very, very strong, especially with respect to job growth and population growth and migration trends requiring housing. So what we are looking at, in my mind, is very short term. We already, as Bryan mentioned, have seen that absorption pretty much get picked up in Las Vegas in October.

這兩個或所有這些城市的基本面仍然非常非常強勁，特別是在就業成長、人口成長以及需要住房的移民趨勢方面。因此，在我看來，我們所關注的是非常短期的。正如 Bryan 所提到的，我們已經看到 10 月拉斯維加斯的吸收率幾乎有所上升。

Our next question is from Daniel Tricarico with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Daniel Tricarico。

Dave, you mentioned capital as the governor to development pipeline growth. So I wanted to be a bit more specific on capital sources and uses. Next year, there's likely to be a funding gap between cash flow after dividend plus net dispositions to fund around another $1 billion of development on top of the debt maturities next year.

戴夫，您提到資本是發展管道成長的總督。所以我想更具體地說明資本來源和用途。明年，股息後的現金流量加上淨處置之間可能存在資金缺口，以便在明年債務到期後為另外約 10 億美元的開發案提供資金。

So is it fair to say you're comfortable staying patient looking for a bit of a reprieve in rates to issue unsecured? Is it maybe a heavier concentration within your JVs or even slowing new starts? Any additional thoughts there?

那麼，可以公平地說，您願意保持耐心，尋求利率上的一點緩和來發行無擔保債券嗎？是否可能會更加集中於合資企業，甚至放慢新的啟動速度？還有其他想法嗎？

Yes. So I agree with all of your things. One is we're not really setting any expectations today on decline in rates. If they occur, it's going to be a tailwind for us. The use of JVs, as you have seen in 2023, is a very, very important part of the capital program for us. It allows us to allocate properties that are much better in a JV structure than maybe in -- on our balance sheet. And so we have the ability to bifurcate them.

是的。所以我同意你的一切。一是我們今天並沒有真正對利率下降設定任何預期。如果它們發生，這將成為我們的順風車。正如您在 2023 年所看到的，合資企業的使用是我們資本計畫中非常非常重要的一部分。它使我們能夠在合資結構中分配比在資產負債表上更好的財產。所以我們有能力將它們分開。

As we go into next year, I would expect it to look a little bit like 2023 from a capital standpoint. And the majority of the reliance will be on recycled capital and retained capital. Maybe a little bit of incremental debt, but that's not going to be the reliance of creating the program unless the capital cost significantly change. And if they do, we have the ability to ramp up.

當我們進入明年時，我預計從資本的角度來看，它看起來有點像 2023 年。大部分依賴將依賴回收資本和留存資本。也許會有一點增量債務，但這不會成為創建該計劃的依賴，除非資本成本發生顯著變化。如果他們這樣做了，我們就有能力加強。

Great. And then could you comment on the opportunity set for portfolio deals in the market? Have you guys been underwriting any and how you would view that trade-off if an opportunity where to arise in relation to the development pipeline?

偉大的。那麼您能否評論一下市場上投資組合交易的機會？你們是否一直在承銷任何專案？如果與開發管道相關的機會出現，您將如何看待這種權衡？

Yes. We've seen a few portfolios. We've underwritten a few portfolios. I think we're aware of the larger ones that have traded. And as I indicated earlier, it first needs to start with the quality and location of the assets. And quality is a number of things. It's the age of the property, it's the characteristics of the property.

是的。我們已經看到了一些投資組合。我們承保了一些投資組合。我認為我們知道已經進行過交易的較大企業。正如我之前指出的，首先需要從資產的品質和位置開始。品質涉及很多方面。這是財產的年齡，這是財產的特徵。

But we also want to be in the better located areas. That's -- the real benefit of our development program is that we have the ability to build in the parts of the market where the homebuilders are actually building to sell. These are the better located properties. So we're -- we have a focus through our asset management of having -- building a higher-quality portfolio long term. And the portfolios that we have seen really haven't fit well into that plan.

但我們也希望位於位置較好的地區。那就是——我們的開發計劃的真正好處是，我們有能力在房屋建築商實際建造並出售的市場部分進行建造。這些是位置較好的房產。因此，我們的資產管理重點是建立更高品質的長期投資組合。我們看到的投資組合確實不太符合該計劃。

Our next question is from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

With your loss-to-lease really holding strong late into the leasing season, I guess -- and potential for that to improve really early next year as you move into the peak leasing season, I guess, should you be able to continue to drive lease rate growth above historical trends in 2024? And absent any broad macro slowdown, what would change, I guess, the pricing power you have right now?

我想，隨著您的租賃損失在租賃季節後期確實保持強勁，並且隨著您進入租賃旺季，我想明年年初這種情況可能會真正改善，如果您能夠繼續駕駛的話2024 年租賃率增長將高於歷史趨勢？如果沒有任何宏觀經濟放緩，我想，你現在擁有的定價能力會發生什麼變化？

Yes. Thanks, Austin. Our plan is pretty simple. We plan on finishing this year strong and being fully prepared for the spring leasing season. Generally, we see a really nice uptick in demand around mid-January. That starts to translate into real strength into February and March.

是的。謝謝，奧斯汀。我們的計劃非常簡單。我們計劃今年表現強勁，並為春季租賃季節做好充分準備。一般來說，我們在一月中旬左右看到需求出現了非常好的成長。這在二月和三月開始轉化為真正的力量。

There are a number of factors that give us a lot of confidence on rate going into next year. I talked about the affordability gap between renting and buying in our markets being 28% at this point, plus the loss-to-lease, plus the fact that we don't see any major supply changes into next year, that gives us a lot of confidence that we should be able to continue to do better than historical averages.

有很多因素讓我們對明年的利率充滿信心。我談到目前我們市場上租賃和購買之間的負擔能力差距為 28%，加上租賃損失，再加上我們沒有看到明年供應出現任何重大變化，這給了我們很多我們相信我們應該能夠繼續做得比歷史平均好。

So it seems fair to think that you could be back into the 5% to 6% loss-to-lease early next year as things start to ramp. Just any comments on that. And then I also wanted to revisit, Bryan, I think it was your comment about the strong retention you've had relative to pre-pandemic, even though I know turnover is up slightly year-over-year.

因此，明年初隨著情況開始好轉，您可能會再次陷入 5% 至 6% 的租賃損失，這似乎是合理的。只是對此有任何評論。然後我還想再回顧一下，布萊恩，我認為這是您對與大流行前相比的強勁保留率的評論，儘管我知道營業額同比略有上升。

But one, what are the biggest move-outs more recently? And then, two, do you think you can drive down turnover further from current levels? And are there targets you have internally that you could get to over time that maybe you could share?

但第一，最近最大的遷出是什麼？其次，您認為可以進一步降低目前水準的營業額嗎？您內部是否有一些可以隨著時間的推移實現的目標，也許您可以分享？

Yes, sure, Austin. I think it's a little early to tell on exactly where rates are going to land next year. We'll have better color for you, I think, on the next call. Retention, the comments I made were comparison between what's happened in 2023 and pre-pandemic. We've seen really nice improvement.

是的，當然，奧斯汀。我認為現在判斷明年利率的具體方向還為時過早。我想，下次通話時我們會為您提供更好的顏色。保留，我發表的評論是2023年和大流行前發生的情況的比較。我們已經看到了非常好的改進。

When you compare it to last year, if you remember, there were differences with delinquency resolution and there's a little bit of noise from the COVID period. But operationally, improved retention is one of our major focal points. It's a major point of the Resident 360 investment. And our teams are constantly looking for ways to improve retention by improving the resident experience. So I'm optimistic that there's room there.

如果您還記得的話，當您將其與去年進行比較時，拖欠解決方案存在差異，並且有一些來自新冠疫情期間的噪音。但在操作上，提高保留率是我們的主要重點之一。這是Resident 360 投資的一個重點。我們的團隊不斷尋找透過改善居民體驗來提高保留率的方法。所以我對那裡有空間感到樂觀。

Our next question is from Jesse Lederman with Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Jesse Lederman。

Congrats on the strong quarter. Your disposition pace this year has been your highest ever. Of course, it's an attractive source of capital. Can you just talk about how comfortably high you feel with that going given different friction costs associated with dispositions? And maybe talk a little bit about the puts and takes of what those costs are.

恭喜季度表現強勁。今年你的處置速度是有史以來最高的。當然，這是一個有吸引力的資本來源。您能否談談考慮到與處置相關的不同摩擦成本，您對此感到有多舒服？也許還可以談談這些成本的賣權和賣出選擇權。

Yes. So Jesse, it's Dave. On dispositions, you're 100% right. This year is our highest year in our history as we're going -- we're at 1,300 at the end of the third quarter. About 225 of those would be in the third quarter itself. October continues to be strong.

是的。傑西，是戴夫。關於處置，你是100%正確的。今年是我們歷史上最高的一年——第三季末我們的人數達到 1,300。其中大約 225 個將發生在第三季。十月持續強勁。

As we go into future years, we will continue to use our analysis and our data to look at other properties that meet our long-term criteria, and those that don't, will go into the disposition category. And whether it is existing properties or land, it should be noted that we look at all of that. We are -- we've actually been a net seller of land in this year. So we rightsize all of our program.

當我們進入未來幾年時，我們將繼續使用我們的分析和數據來查看符合我們長期標準的其他房產，而那些不符合我們長期標準的房產將進入處置類別。值得注意的是，無論是現有財產還是土地，我們都會考慮所有這些。我們今年實際上是土地的淨賣家。因此，我們調整了所有計劃的規模。

I will -- I want to add one thing, as we go into '24, but maybe more importantly for '25, one of the benefits of our securitization is getting refinanced as those homes will get unencumbered. And there will be some homes in the securitizations that today are not practical to sell that will probably screen as disposition candidates in '25 after they're unencumbered late '24.

我會——我想補充一件事，當我們進入 24 年時，但也許對於 25 年更重要的是，我們證券化的好處之一是獲得再融資，因為這些房屋將不受阻礙。證券化中將會有一些目前不切實際出售的房屋，在 24 年末擺脫負擔後，可能會在 25 年被篩選為處置候選人。

That's very helpful. My next question is on occupancy. And I understand your occupancy is still above pre-COVID averages. And you made some comments saying you think that occupancy and rent growth kind of a new normal a bit higher than pre-COVID levels. But can you talk about how you think about the puts and takes of occupancy versus rent growth? So now you're at 96.2% for October. Are you looking to keep that above 96%?

這非常有幫助。我的下一個問題是關於入住率。據我了解，您的入住率仍高於新冠疫情爆發前的平均值。您發表了一些評論，表示您認為入住率和租金成長是一種新常態，略高於新冠疫情前的水平。但您能談談您如何看待入住率與租金成長之間的關係嗎？現在 10 月的進度為 96.2%。您希望保持在 96% 以上嗎？

Are you okay with it trending down closer to pre-COVID levels? Just trying to understand how you view the trade-off between occupancy and the rent growth.

您是否同意它趨於接近新冠疫情前的水平？只是想了解您如何看待入住率和租金成長之間的權衡。

Yes. Thanks, Jesse. This is Bryan. We're focused on optimizing the entire revenue line. And the interplay there obviously is occupancy and rate. We've made really good improvements in revenue management over the last 5 or 6 years and I think are benefiting us today.

是的。謝謝，傑西。這是布萊恩。我們專注於優化整個收入線。入住率和入住率之間的相互作用顯然是存在的。在過去的五、六年裡，我們在收入管理方面取得了很大的進步，我認為今天我們也受益匪淺。

As I said before, my expectation -- our expectation is that there is going to be a new norm on occupancy. The demand backdrop is fantastic. We'll be in a good position going into next year. The single-family sector and value proposition is as strong as it's ever been. So we have good expectations on continued strong rent growth.

正如我之前所說，我的期望 - 我們的期望是入住率將會出現新的規範。需求背景非常好。進入明年我們將處於有利位置。單戶住宅領域和價值主張一如既往地強勁。因此，我們對租金持續強勁成長抱持良好預期。

Our final question is from Keegan Carl with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Keegan Carl。

So one of your peers, given what they've recently done with hires, I think it's clear that your build-to-rent platform is validated. Just kind of curious, I know you touched a little bit earlier on returns, but just can you guide what the returns look like on the homes that have been delivered over the last several years and how they've been trending relative to your expectations? And then how much additional yield you typically would get on developments versus what you'd buy in the MLS on a stabilized basis?

因此，鑑於您的一位同行最近在招聘方面所做的工作，我認為很明顯您的構建租賃平台已得到驗證。只是有點好奇，我知道您早些時候談到了回報，但您能否指導一下過去幾年交付的房屋的回報情況以及它們相對於您的期望的趨勢如何？那麼，與您在穩定的 MLS 中購買的產品相比，您通常會從開發專案中獲得多少額外收益？

Well, this is Dave. Let me take the second part, and that is the difference in yields. And while I think that's important and it is significantly different, as I said today, we're seeing acquisition opportunities in the 4s and having very difficult time finding any opportunities there that meet any of the buy opportunity. Our development program is approaching the 6s. So you've got 100 basis points plus between the 2, and we have seen it historically.

嗯，這是戴夫。讓我來看第二部分，那就是收益率的差異。雖然我認為這很重要，而且有很大不同，但正如我今天所說，我們在 4s 領域看到了收購機會，但很難在那裡找到滿足任何購買機會的機會。我們的開發計劃已接近6。因此，兩者之間有 100 個基點以上，我們在歷史上已經看到這一點。

But I think the benefit of the development program, in my mind, is much greater than just that one piece. It is the locations of the properties that we are building. It is the quality of the properties that we're building because we don't build them like a national homebuilder because we are going to own it long term. It's not a criticism of the homebuilders. It's a different objective long term.

但我認為，在我看來，開發計畫的好處遠不止這一塊。這是我們正在建造的房產的位置。這是我們正在建造的房產的質量，因為我們不像國家住宅建築商那樣建造它們，因為我們將長期擁有它。這不是對房屋建築商的批評。這是一個不同的長期目標。

So we're building with higher-quality materials. It's all about the durability of the assets. And so I like -- I think the development program has significant benefits. It is how you execute the development program, that is very important. It has to be a program that you control the design and the execution and the site selection in the process.

因此，我們正在使用更高品質的材料進行建造。這一切都與資產的耐用性有關。所以我喜歡——我認為該開發計劃有顯著的好處。這是您執行開發計劃的方式，這一點非常重要。它必須是一個程序，您可以控制流程中的設計、執行和選址。

And so I don't necessarily comment on others, but I do believe it is a very successful program. I believe that it's been acknowledged a number of times. We saw a number of years ago people attempting to get into build-to-rent as a standalone without having an operating platform, and you really need the synergies of the 2 to make it successful. So I think other people acknowledge the quality and the benefits of a development program.

所以我不一定對其他人發表評論，但我確實相信這是一個非常成功的計劃。我相信這一點已經被承認過很多次了。多年前，我們看到人們試圖在沒有營運平台的情況下獨立進入建租模式，而你確實需要兩者的協同作用才能成功。所以我認為其他人承認開發計劃的品質和好處。

And then big picture, we're heading into an election year, and I think it's fair to assume that SFR is going to have some noise around it. I'm just curious, can you walk us through how you work with local governments to communicate value proposition of SFR and then how your development platform differentiates you?

然後從大局來看，我們即將進入選舉年，我認為可以公平地假設 SFR 將會產生一些噪音。我只是很好奇，您能否向我們介紹一下您如何與地方政府合作來傳達 SFR 的價值主張，以及您的開發平台如何讓您脫穎而出？

Yes. I'd say, it's a true ground game on the government affairs. And we are the -- I think maybe the only one. I'm not 100% sure of that. But we have a dedicated team that's experienced in government affairs. And it's all about education and talking about the benefits of single-family rentals, the desire that the tenants have. There is misconceptions that are being put forth by various politicians. And at the local level is where all the decisions are made. So it's truly, truly a ground game.

是的。我想說，這是一場關於政府事務的真正的地面遊戲。我想我們可能是唯一的一個。我對此不是 100% 確定。但我們有一支在政府事務方面經驗豐富的敬業團隊。這一切都是關於教育和談論單戶出租的好處以及租戶的願望。不同政客提出了一些誤解。所有決策都是在地方層級做出的。所以這確實是一款地面遊戲。

And we can talk about a lot of different instances, but it's having a team to get in there, give you the ability to get your permits. And at the end of the day, what we are doing is we are building more housing in this country. And isn't that where the real problem is in affordability, et cetera? It's in the fact that we don't have enough high-quality housing and we have this housing shortage.

我們可以討論很多不同的情況，但它需要一個團隊介入，讓你有能力獲得許可。歸根結底，我們正在做的是在這個國家建造更多的住房。這不是真正的問題在於負擔能力等等嗎？事實上，我們沒有足夠的高品質住房，我們存在住房短缺。

So if we can solve the housing shortage and we can get the building permits that are necessary to provide the housing, I think a lot of the concerns that are being talked about, resolve themselves. But they won't resolve themselves unless we provide adequate housing.

因此，如果我們能夠解決住房短缺問題，並且能夠獲得提供住房所需的建築許可證，我認為正在討論的許多問題都會自行解決。但除非我們提供足夠的住房，否則他們不會自行解決。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call over to management for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉交給管理層以徵求結束意見。

Yes. Thank you, operator. And to all of you, thank you for your time today. We will talk to you again, I guess, next year on our next earnings call. So have a good day. Have a good weekend.

是的。謝謝你，接線生。感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間。我想，我們會在明年的下一次財報電話會議上再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。有一個美好的周末。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。