阿美特克 (AME) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the First Quarter 2022 AMETEK Earnings Conference Call. My name is John. I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

And I'll now turn the call over to Kevin Coleman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.

Thank you, John. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for AMETEK's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Dave Zapico, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

During the course of today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are subject to change based on various risk factors and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ significantly from expectations. A detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect our future results is contained in AMETEK's filings with the SEC. AMETEK disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Any references made on this call to 2021 or 2022 results will be on an adjusted basis, excluding after-tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization. Reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures can be found in our press release and on the Investors section of our website.

We'll begin today's call with prepared remarks by Dave and Bill and then open it up for questions. I'll now turn the meeting over to Dave.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. AMETEK delivered outstanding results in the first quarter, with strong sales growth and excellent operating performance, driving robust core margin expansion and earnings which exceeded our expectations. We are also seeing continued strong demand. This demand remains broad-based across our diverse set of niche markets, leading to outstanding orders growth and a record backlog. I'm very proud of the way our teams are managing a challenging and uncertain macro environment. AMETEK's flexible operating model allows our businesses to quickly adjust and adapt to changing economic conditions and deliver exceptional results.

Before I provide more details on the results for the quarter, I wanted to comment on the ongoing geopolitical events in Ukraine. We are deeply saddened by the tragic events continuing to unfold in Ukraine. Our hearts and thoughts are with all those affected. To assist with the immediate needs of this mass humanitarian crisis, the AMETEK Foundation has made donations to several charities that are actively providing food, shelter and medical supplies to those impacted. Additionally, many AMETEK colleagues in our businesses have mobilized to help in whatever way they can through donations to charities supporting the crisis. Thank you to all employees who are supporting those in need.

Now let me turn to our first quarter results. First quarter sales were $1.46 billion, up 20% over the same period in 2021. Organic sales growth was 14%. Acquisitions added 7 points, and foreign currency was a 1-point headwind in the quarter. Overall, orders in the first quarter were $1.7 billion, an increase of 22% over the prior year period while organic orders were up 18% in the quarter. Book-to-bill was 1.17 in the first quarter, reflecting continued robust and broad-based demand. Backlog at quarter end was a record $3 billion, up approximately $1.2 billion from the end of 2020.

Operating income in the quarter was $353 million, a 20% increase over the first quarter of 2021. Operating margins were 24.2% in the quarter, up 10 basis points from the prior year. Core operating margins were 25.5%, up an impressive 140 basis points versus the first quarter of 2021, with strong core margin expansion in each operating group. This outstanding margin expansion is a testament to the strength of our operating capability and the great work of our teams in managing inflationary and supply chain impacts across our business.

EBITDA in the first quarter was $434 million, up 22% over the prior year, with EBITDA margins of 29.7%. This outstanding operating performance led to earnings of $1.33 per diluted share, up 24% versus the first quarter of 2021, and above our guidance range of $1.24 to $1.28.

Next, let me provide some additional details at the operating group level. First, the Electronic Instruments Group. Sales for our Electronic Instruments Group were $987.8 million, up 25% from last year's first quarter. Organic sales were up 15% in the quarter while recent acquisitions contributed 11% and foreign currency was a 1-point headwind. Organic growth was particularly strong across our Ultra Precision Technologies division, with Creaform record technologies and TMC Precitech businesses leading to growth.

EIG's operating income in the first quarter was $244.8 million, up 18% versus the prior year, while EIG operating margins were 24.8% in the quarter. EIG's core margins were up a very strong 130 basis points over the prior year to 27.5%.

The Electromechanical Group also had a great quarter, with excellent organic sales growth driven by broad-based demand and strong operating performance. EMG's first quarter sales increased 11% versus the prior year to $470.8 million. Organic sales growth was 12%, and foreign currency, a 1-point headwind. Demand within our automation businesses remains excellent, reflecting AMETEK's highly differentiated motion control capabilities and leadership positions within our niche applications.

EMG's operating income in the first quarter was a record $128.2 million, up 22% to the prior year period. EMG's operating margins expanded an exceptional 250 basis points to 27.2%, which includes an approximate $7 million gain on the sale of a facility in the quarter. On a core basis, excluding this gain, EMG margins were up a very strong 100 basis points versus last year's first quarter.

Our teams continue to deliver outstanding performance in a very challenging and dynamic operational environment. In addition to ensuring we successfully navigate the current macro environment, we are focused on ensuring AMETEK is positioned for long-term success and sustainable growth by making investments in our organic growth initiatives.

In 2022, we expect to invest approximately $110 million in support of these growth initiatives, including strong growth across our research, development and engineering groups. AMETEK's leadership positions in our niche markets are driven by deep industry expertise and the differentiation of our technology. Our research and engineering teams do a wonderful job developing innovative, next-generation products and technologies to support their customers' applications.

For the full year, we now expect to invest more than $345 million or over 5.5% of sales in RD&E. Our Vitality Index, which reflects the level of sales from products introduced over the past 3 years, was a very strong 26% in the first quarter.

One way we recognize and celebrate the great work of our businesses' new product development efforts is through the AMETEK innovation award, this award provided annually to the AMETEK businesses who best demonstrates breakthrough innovation of new technology driving expanded growth opportunity. The most recent innovation award winner was our used trailer Rotron business unit, a leading provider of advanced thermal management systems for use and support of critical aerospace, defense, industrial and commercial applications.

Utilizing various elements of the AMETEK new product development process, the team developed a highly innovative heat exchanger that provides meaningful improvements in aircraft engine performance versus the incumbent technologies. This new product will deliver strong incremental sales for AMETEK while providing important sustainability benefits to the reduction of approximately 1 million [tonnes] of carbon dioxide over a 10-year period due to an advanced, more thermally and aerodynamically efficient design of the heat exchanger.

Driving such benefits aligned with AMETEK's core value of social responsibility by using innovative solutions to help our customers create a more sustainable future. Congratulations to the used trailer Rotron team and all the AMETEK colleagues contributing to the development of outstanding new products and technologies.

Now switching to our acquisition strategy. We had a record year of capital deployment in 2021, deploying approximately $2 billion on the acquisition of 6 businesses. Those businesses are integrating nicely, and we expect contributions from the acquisitions in the coming years as they further implement key elements of the AMETEK Growth Model. Our acquisition pipelines remain strong, and our M&A teams remain busy in identifying attractive acquisition opportunities. We have ample balance sheet capacity and strong cash flows to support our acquisition strategy and expect to remain active over the coming quarters.

Now let me touch on the supply chain issues. Overall, the global supply chain and logistics channels remain tight and unreliable. The supply chain and logistics environment in the first quarter was similar to what we experienced during the fourth quarter, with extended lead times for a broad range of materials and components. These issues are leading to higher inflation, but given our product differentiation, we were able to more than offset this inflation with higher pricing, leading to a strong price inflation spread and outstanding margin expansion.

Now to our outlook for the remainder of the year. While we are bullish on the future, we remain cautious in the short term given uncertainty related to the supply chain challenges, the war in Ukraine and the COVID lockdowns in China. However, given the strength of the AMETEK Growth Model and our proven operational capabilities, we are confident in our ability to manage these ongoing headwinds. Additionally, our record backlog and leadership positions across attractive mid- and long-cycle markets position us well for continued strong growth.

For the full year, we continue to expect organic sales growth to be up mid- to high single digits while overall sales growth are expected to be up high single digits, down slightly versus our prior guidance given increased foreign currency headwinds. Given our first quarter results, we are increasing our full year earnings guidance. Diluted earnings per share for the year are now expected to be in the range of $5.34 to $5.44, up 10% to 12% compared to 2021. This is an increase from our previous guidance range of $5.30 to $5.42 per diluted share.

While confident in our increased outlook for the year, the COVID-19 lockdowns throughout China are expected to shift some sales from the second quarter into the second half. For the second quarter, overall sales are expected to be up low to mid-single digits compared to the same period last year, and second quarter earnings are expected to be in the range of $1.27 to $1.30 per diluted share, up 10% to 13% versus the prior year.

To summarize, AMETEK delivered a strong first quarter, with solid orders and sales growth, strong margin expansion and a high quality of earnings, allowing us to increase our earnings guidance for the year. These outstanding results speak to the strength of the AMETEK Growth Model, along with the resilience of our world-class workforce. Our differentiated technology solutions and market-leading positions across diverse niche applications have allowed us to navigate through these difficult economic cycles. While we expect these challenges will continue throughout '22, we remain well positioned for continued long-term growth.

I will now turn it over to Bill Burke, who will cover some of the financial details of the quarter. Then we'll be glad to take your questions. Bill?

Thank you, Dave. As Dave noted, AMETEK delivered outstanding results to start the year, highlighted by strong sales and orders growth, excellent operating performance and a high quality of earnings. I'll provide some additional financial highlights for the quarter.

First quarter general and administrative expenses were $19.7 million, up $1 million from the prior year due to higher compensation expenses in the quarter. For 2022, general and administrative expenses are expected to be roughly in line with 2021 levels and approximately 1.5% of sales.

The effective tax rate in the quarter was 19%, down from 19.5% in the first quarter of 2021. For 2022, we anticipate our effective tax rate to be between 19% and 20%. And as we've stated in the past, actual quarterly tax rates can differ dramatically, either positively or negatively from this full year estimated grade.

Capital expenditures in the first quarter were $26 million. For the full year, capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $125 million or approximately 2% of sales.

Depreciation and amortization expense in the quarter was $78 million. In 2022, we expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $320 million, including after-tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization of approximately $150 million or $0.64 per diluted share.

For the quarter, operating working capital was 17.1% of sales. Operating cash flow was $201 million, and free cash flow was $175 million. Our first quarter working capital and cash flow results reflect our strategic decision to add inventory in certain areas to support continued strong customer demand and as a hedge against longer lead times we are experiencing across the supply chain. While this investment resulted in lower cash flows and free cash flow conversion in the first quarter, we continue to expect a strong 110% free cash flow-to-net income conversion for the full year.

During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares of stock in the open market for approximately $152 million. Total debt ended the first quarter at $2.54 billion, unchanged from the end of 2021, and offsetting this debt is cash and cash equivalents of about $340 million. The end of the first quarter, gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.5x, and the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.3.

We continue to have excellent financial capacity and flexibility, with approximately $2.3 billion of cash and existing credit facilities at March 31 to support our growth initiatives. As a reminder, our top priority for capital deployment remains strategic acquisitions as we believe it provides AMETEK and our shareholders with the best returns on our capital.

In summary, our businesses drove excellent performance in the first quarter, delivering strong earnings growth in a very challenging environment. We remain well positioned to manage ongoing economic challenges while continuing to invest strategically in our long-term growth initiatives.

Kevin?

Thank you, Bill. John, can we please open the lines for questions?

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson.

Dave, can you maybe talk about where you were in Q1 from a price cost standpoint, what that spread looks like and how much realized price you expect for the full year? And then I have a follow-up.

Sure, Matt. In the first quarter, our pricing continued to more than offset inflation. Pricing was about 5%, and inflation was about 4%. So the spread was a little over 100 basis points. And for 2022, we expect the price to be in the 4.5% to 5% range and the inflation to be in the 4% to 4.5% range. So about a 50% positive spread in our guide. And the results speak to the highly differentiated nature of the AMETEK product portfolio and our leadership positions and niches, the investments we're making in our products and technologies, and we've been staying ahead of inflation as we said we would for probably the last year or so when we saw it coming down the line.

Got it. And then, Dave, given your second quarter guidance and kind of the normal -- in a more normal year, typical cadence would dictate second quarter being at least a few cents above where you're at in Q1. Obviously, you're not guiding that way this year. So I guess I'm trying to understand maybe how much contingency you're factoring in disruption, if you want to call it that. Can you kind of parse that out a little bit?

Yes. It's a good observation, Matt. And it's fundamentally driven by the China lockdown scenario. We have about 9% of our sales are out of China, and we've been successfully running a profitable growing operation there for many years. We have tremendous customer base, improving manufacturing processes, making the environment cleaner, improving research and development capabilities, and that's going to continue. But right now, several of our major facilities are in the Shanghai area, and they're in a lockdown situation, either not operating or operating in a significantly reduced capacity. And that's impacting a lot of our business.

And our best assessment of what we know right now is about a half of our China sales will be impacted in the quarter. So that's about 4% or 5% of our sales or $65 million or $70 million. So if you take that out of the guide, you'll see that the balance of AMETEK is going up in Q2. So it's really the fact that -- of lower business activities in China because of the lockdown situations and because of our proximity to Shanghai in some of our major operations. Now those sales are just going to be delayed. They're going to get delayed from the second quarter to the second half of the year. And so we have to get through the lockdown in Q2.

And our next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

I appreciate all the color. Could you take us through the key end markets and regional updates? We certainly just got the China update on the lockdowns. That's understood, but anything else, especially on European exposures?

Sure, Deane. I'll take you through the major markets first.

Our Process businesses were up 20% in the quarter. Strong demand, organic sales growth, contribution from the acquisitions of Magnetrol and Alphasense, so organic sales for Process were up mid-teens in the quarter. Growth, broad-based. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the Ultra Precision Technologies business really saw excellent growth in the quarter. End market demand remains strong. All key end markets, including semiconductor research and medical are very strong. Additionally, we're seeing increased demand for our solutions-serving sustainability initiatives, with our instrumentation being used to reduce harmful emissions and process -- improve process efficiency. So for -- look at process, our biggest segment for all of 2022, we continue to expect organic sales for our Process businesses to be up mid- to high single digits.

Next, our Aerospace business. Our Aerospace business was organically up low single digits in the quarter, up in the mid-20s range for the first quarter in overall sales. In the quarter, we saw a strength in commercial aerospace being partially offset by delays in defense shipments caused by U.S. government spending. So our commercial side of that business was up low double digits, and our defense side of that business was down mid-single digits. And for the full year, we expect to be up mid-single digits, with commercial up high single digits and defense up low single digits for Aerospace.

Next, Power & Industrial. Overall sales were also up in the mid-20s, so good quarter at Power & Industrial. We had mid-teens organic sales growth and the contributions from our acquisition of NSI-MI. So strong balanced sales growth across both Power & Industrial, and we expect organic sales for our Power & Industrial businesses to be up mid-single digits, with similar growth across both segments.

And then finally, our Automation & Engineered Solutions. Both overall and organic sales for Automation & Engineered Solutions businesses were up mid-teens on a percentage basis in the quarter, with solid demand continuing across our end markets. For the full year, we expect -- we continue to expect organic sales to be up for our Automation & Engineered Solutions business, up mid- to high single digits, with similar growth across each business. So strong performance across the entire business.

I'll talk about the geography. You asked that question, too. Strong broad-based growth across all geographies, up mid-teens in Europe, U.S. and Asia. China, we were up 10% on an as-reported basis. So good quarter there also. So when you look across the globe, there's really not a blemish in terms of growth. So we're feeling good about that also. With our orders, we think there's strong growth ahead.

That's really helpful. And just last one. Just to clarify, I understand the pushout from the second quarter that may be China-related. How -- I might have missed this, but were there any revenues pushed out of the first quarter?

There really wasn't. The closure of China occurred late in the quarter, very late in the quarter, and we had a heads-up that, that was happening. So we were able to really meet our demand requirements in the first quarter. But at the same time, overall, for the company, there continued to be orders that did not ship in the first quarter, and they were in that $50 million-plus range. So if we were operating at 100% of supply chain and everything else that was going on, we probably would have shipped another $50 million-plus in the first quarter.

And our next question is from Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

So just poking on sort of that end market and customer demand, is there any sort of change in behavior that's sort of causing you a little bit of pause with a specific business or vertical that kind of leading to you that things might be shifting a little bit? Or is it still quite strong across the board here?

It's quite strong across the board. I think over 90% of our business units had double-digit sales and double-digit orders, and the ones that didn't were in high single digits. So the orders are good. The sales are good. There's absolutely no slowdown that we see. As I told you a couple of quarters ago, customers are giving us an early look into their demands. That's continuing. And -- but I really see no slowdown at all on that. We had 22% orders and 18% order growth, and it's broad-based. And I think, on an orders basis, organic orders, EIG was 19, and EMG was 15, so both very strong.

Great. And then you talked about the pipeline for M&A being quite filled at this point, which is not atypical for you. Would you describe sort of kind of the things that you're seeing? What's kind of holding things back? Is pricing still high at this point? Just any incremental color on the pipeline and what you're seeing out there today.

Sure. We remain active. We're looking at multiple deals. As always, we are focused on long-term returns. The one point that's a factor right now, if you look at private company multiples and public company multiples and with the stock market, obviously, public company multiples have come in a bit, but the private company multiples are above public company multiples. And they're being stingy and reflecting what's happened in the public market. So there's a bit of a delay in some of the private businesses. We're looking at premium multiples, and I think that's causing some transactions to get pushed to the right. The difference between private and public multiples and the fact that the owners of the private businesses are holding on right now to -- for higher multiples in the public market.

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer from Melius Research.

I was just going to follow on. The last statement you just made was an interesting one. I just wanted to see if you would characterize acquisition pipeline, funnel backlog and size. You guys had a record year last year, and maybe some of that was because 2020 was a little slower. But then was your statement meant to imply that things have to kind of normalize between public and private before acquisition activity picks up? Or is it more situational? And that's a comment, not a forecast, I mean, on the price (inaudible).

Not a forecast. It's a comment, but it is a factor that's impacting valuations. But we have a very, very good pipeline, both smaller deals, public and private, and I expect that you'll be hearing from us this year. And as you know, we're always focused on long-term returns. So we have to see value in what we're buying, and we're very active right now.

Okay. Perfect. And then I think your comments have been really clear that 90% in double digits is an amazing stat in some ways. There's a lot of consternation around Europe, whether there's going to be a slide into recession or just uncertainty on spending, et cetera. I assume from your comment, you're not seeing any of that in the orders and backlog specific to Europe. And I'll stop there.

Yes. Europe was up 16% in the quarter. Broad-based strength, we had notable strength in our Process businesses. Clearly, there's some impact in the energy area and with the Ukraine crisis, the war in Ukraine. Some of our products are used to help people get fuel efficiency. Some of our products are used in applications that are actually helping those customers deal with higher energy costs. So right now, we're not seeing a slowdown. We've read the press clippings like you have. But right now, we're full go in Europe.

And our next question is from Scott Graham from Loop Capital Markets.

So I have 2 questions. One is on the price cost, and I know that we came into this year with that fourth quarter. I think you had a 100-basis-point gap in the first quarter. You had the same in the fourth quarter. I think you mentioned that you were expecting that gap to start to narrow, and it really didn't in the first quarter. So is it possible that you can get pricing enough to keep it at 100 for the rest of the year?

It is possible, Scott. I mean that's -- our guidance is for it to narrow a bit. But certainly, we've been doing an excellent job, and I think our intention will be to try to maintain the same spread. But our guidance is for that to narrow a bit.

Understood. Next question is on Aerospace. And commercial, you said was up low double. And I was hoping maybe you could unbundle that OE versus MRO.

Yes. The -- what drove the growth in our commercial, but the low double digit was really the aftermarket and the business jet that those markets both outperformed the OE.

Okay. And from -- if I could just extend that last comment. What are you hearing from the big guys? Because they're -- obviously, these guys are certainly mum on '23. Are you hearing any changes in build rates for next year. Certainly, it costs a lot to take a flight these days, so I'm thinking that they're kind of padding things -- their pockets a little bit. What is your sense there?

My sense is, from our perspective, that market is going to continue to improve, and it's one of our longer cycle exposures. And we're looking for a good continued growth in commercial in 2023.

Got it. And if I could just sneak this last one in. I know that your vitality has been at about 25% for quite some time. Honestly, correct me if I'm wrong, this is the first time I've heard 26%. And I was -- that's a really awesome number of 3 years and what have you. And I'm hearing you talk more and more about new products on these calls. Can that number continue to creep up this year?

Yes. It can continue to creep up, and we've got an incredible, incredible range of new products were being introduced. And they're also -- if you think about where -- the heat exchangers I talked about from our used trailer business, I mean, we're saving 1 million [tonnes] of CO2. That's almost the entire carbon footprint of AMETEK over 10 years. It's an incredible design. It reduces weight. It's just a fantastic design, and we're already designed in, and it's really bullish for the future. So we have the engineering capability to meet the needs of the customers in these changing times, where sustainability is a more important factor. And I'm very excited about our product development. That's why we're investing heavily in that area, and we have good things to come.

(Operator Instructions) And our next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. I know AMETEK is a sizable U.S. exporter given the U.S. dollar appreciation. Is that a drag on margins? And can you remind us of your overall hedging strategy?

Sure. The first point is we are a sizable U.S. exporter, and that's a correct statement. But our products are also very differentiated. So as evidenced by our price inflation spread, so far, we're able to offset the higher U.S. dollar in our cost structure.

The second point is our hedging strategy. And actually, we don't have hedging strategy because we're naturally hedged. So pretty much across the board, we spent a lot of time, and this is about 10 years' worth of time. It's a long period of time. We're naturally hedged in each of our locations that we operate. So our revenues and expenses naturally offset. And to give you an example, in this quarter where you had a strong dollar and it was some currency implementations, it did impact our top line. But our bottom line across the whole enterprise, it was less than a $0.01 impact on earnings. So we've got this natural hedging strategy. And through the past 10 years, you can go back and look at it. It works very well. We are a U.S. exporter, but we got the pricing leverage through our differentiated technology. So a strong dollar is not usually an insurmountable headwind for us.

Understood. And a quick follow-up. On Abaco, are you seeing any sort of incremental demand out there from international defense budgets, which are going up? I know this is probably more of a '23, '24 story, but has the sort of pipeline for your defense businesses changed meaningfully?

Yes. The pipeline is improving in international markets. We have businesses located in the U.K. besides Abaco that are also benefiting. So the fact that the international defense market is improving is a good thing for our Aerospace & Defense business.

And our next question is from Joe Giordano from Cowen.

Good morning. This is Michael on for Joe. Continuing with the defense theme, can you provide any color regarding the new U.S. defense budget that has been finalized?

Yes, the U.S. defense budget is good from our perspective. It's in areas that we're investing. I mean when you look at the whole thing, it was probably flattish to up a bit. So -- but there's ample spending going on for us, and we're really -- it's a budget that we can work with. What hit us a bit in the first quarter, and I talked about our defense businesses being down, were the delays from the continuing resolution where no one has funding. So what we're seeing now is an uptick in order patterns, and the second half of the year, we expect that market to improve substantially.

And we have no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back over to Kevin Coleman for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. And as a reminder, a replay of the webcast may be accessed in the Investors section of ametek.com. Have a great day.

Thank you for joining, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.