阿美特克 (AME) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the AMETEK Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 AMETEK 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin Coleman, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管凱文科爾曼。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Rocco. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for AMETEK's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Dave Zapico, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，羅科。早上好，感謝您加入我們參加阿美特克 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是董事長兼首席執行官 Dave Zapico；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Burke。

During the course of today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are subject to change based on various risk factors and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ significantly from expectations. A detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect our future results is contained in AMETEK's filings with the SEC. AMETEK disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能會根據各種風險因素和不確定性而發生變化，這些風險因素和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預期大相徑庭。阿美特克提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中包含對可能影響我們未來業績的風險和不確定性的詳細討論。阿美特克不承擔任何更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務。

Any references made on this call to 2021 or '22 results or 2023 guidance will be on an adjusted basis, excluding after tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization. Reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures can be found in our press release and on the Investors section of our website.

本次電話會議對 2021 年或 22 年業績或 2023 年業績指引的任何引用都將在調整後的基礎上進行，不包括稅後、與收購相關的無形資產攤銷。可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者部分找到 GAAP 和調整措施之間的對賬。

We'll begin today's call with prepared remarks by Dave and Bill, and then we'll open it up for questions. I'll now turn the meeting over to Dave.

我們將以 Dave 和 Bill 準備好的發言開始今天的電話會議，然後我們將公開提問。我現在將會議轉交給戴夫。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with AMETEK's results in the fourth quarter and for all of 2022. AMETEK's continued excellent performance reflects the quality of our niche differentiated businesses, the strength of the AMETEK growth model and the expanding impact of our organic growth initiatives and most importantly, the outstanding efforts of our global employees. Thank you to all AMETEK colleagues for your many contributions to our success. We have navigated many challenges over the last few years, only to emerge stronger and even better positioned for sustained growth.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早上好。我對阿美特克第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績感到非常滿意。阿美特克持續的出色表現反映了我們利基差異化業務的質量、阿美特克增長模式的優勢以及我們有機增長計劃的影響不斷擴大，最重要的是，我們全球員工的傑出努力。感謝所有 AMETEK 同事為我們的成功做出的許多貢獻。在過去的幾年裡，我們克服了許多挑戰，變得更加強大，甚至更好地為持續增長做好了準備。

Our results in the fourth quarter were outstanding. Stronger-than-expected sales growth and excellent operating performance led to a high quality of earnings, which exceeded our expectations in the quarter. We ended the year with a record backlog as demand remained solid across our diverse end markets. Organic growth was again very strong in the quarter as our teams are successfully driving key organic growth initiatives across their businesses and expanding their presence serving attractive growth markets. Operationally, we're performing exceptionally well and offsetting inflation with price increases, resulting in strong margin expansion. Additionally, cash flow in the quarter was outstanding, providing us the flexibility to invest in our businesses and deploy capital on strategic acquisitions.

我們在第四季度的業績非常出色。強於預期的銷售增長和出色的經營業績帶來了高質量的盈利，這超出了我們本季度的預期。由於我們多元化的終端市場的需求依然強勁，我們以創紀錄的積壓結束了這一年。本季度的有機增長再次非常強勁，因為我們的團隊成功地推動了他們業務的關鍵有機增長計劃，並擴大了他們服務於有吸引力的增長市場的影響力。在運營方面，我們表現異常出色，並通過價格上漲抵消了通貨膨脹，從而實現了強勁的利潤增長。此外，本季度的現金流量非常出色，使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們的業務和部署戰略收購的資金。

Now on to the results of the fourth quarter and all of 2022. Fourth quarter sales were $1.63 billion, up 8% over the same period in 2021. Organic sales growth was 9%. Acquisitions added 2 points and foreign currency was a 3-point headwind in the quarter. Orders were solid in the fourth quarter against a challenging comparison, resulting in a record backlog of $3.22 billion.

現在是第四季度和 2022 年全年的結果。第四季度銷售額為 16.3 億美元，比 2021 年同期增長 8%。有機銷售額增長 9%。收購增加了 2 個百分點，外匯是本季度 3 個百分點的不利因素。與具有挑戰性的比較相比，第四季度的訂單表現強勁，積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 32.2 億美元。

Operating income in the quarter was a record of $398 million, a 10% increase over the fourth quarter of 2021. Operating margins were 24.5% in the quarter, up 50 basis points from the prior year. EBITDA in the quarter was a record $489 million, up 12% over the prior year, and EBITDA margins were an impressive 30.1%. This outstanding operating performance led to record earnings of $1.52 per diluted share, up 11% versus the fourth quarter of 2021 and above our guidance range of $1.45 to $1.47 per share.

本季度營業收入達到創紀錄的 3.98 億美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 10%。本季度營業利潤率為 24.5%，比上年同期提高 50 個基點。本季度的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 4.89 億美元，比上年增長 12%，EBITDA 利潤率達到令人印象深刻的 30.1%。這一出色的經營業績導致攤薄後每股收益達到創紀錄的 1.52 美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 11%，高於我們每股 1.45 美元至 1.47 美元的指導範圍。

Now let me provide some additional details at the operating group level. First, the Electronic Instruments Group. The Electronic Instruments Group delivered continued strong sales growth and excellent operating performance. Sales for EIG were a record $1.16 billion in the quarter, up 10% from the fourth quarter of last year. Organic sales were up 9%, acquisitions added 3% and foreign currency was a 3-point headwind. EIG growth was broad-based with particularly strong growth across our Aerospace & Defense and Ultra Precision Technologies businesses in the quarter. EIG's operating income in the fourth quarter was a record $307 million, up 10% versus the prior year while EIG margins were a very strong 26.5% in the quarter.

現在讓我在運營組級別提供一些額外的細節。第一，電子儀器集團。電子儀器集團實現了持續強勁的銷售增長和出色的經營業績。本季度 EIG 的銷售額達到創紀錄的 11.6 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 10%。有機銷售額增長了 9%，收購增加了 3%，而外匯是 3 點逆風。 EIG 的增長基礎廣泛，本季度我們的航空航天與國防和超精密技術業務增長尤為強勁。 EIG 第四季度的營業收入達到創紀錄的 3.07 億美元，比去年同期增長 10%，而 EIG 本季度的利潤率非常強勁，達到 26.5%。

The Electromechanical Group also finished the year with outstanding performance. EMG's fourth quarter sales were $466 million, up 4% versus the prior year, with organic sales growing 8% and foreign currency a 3-point headwind. Growth was again broad-based across EMG with our Aerospace & Defense businesses leading to growth. EMG's operating income in the fourth quarter was $115 million, up 9% compared to the prior year period. EMG's fourth quarter operating margins were 24.6%, up an impressive 100 basis points versus the prior year.

機電集團也以出色的表現結束了這一年。 EMG 第四季度銷售額為 4.66 億美元，比去年同期增長 4%，其中有機銷售額增長 8%，外匯逆風 3 點。 EMG 再次實現廣泛增長，我們的航空航天和國防業務引領增長。 EMG 第四季度的營業收入為 1.15 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%。 EMG 第四季度的營業利潤率為 24.6%，比去年同期高出 100 個基點，令人印象深刻。

Now for the full year results. Overall performance was outstanding in 2022, establishing annual records for essentially all key financial metrics. Overall sales for the year were $6.15 billion, up 11% from 2021. Organic sales increased 11%, acquisitions added 2% and foreign currency was a 3-point headwind. Operating income for 2022 was $1.5 billion, up 15% and operating margins were 24.4%, up 80 basis points versus the prior year, while core margins were up an impressive 130 basis points, reflecting our ability to successfully manage inflation and supply chain challenges.

現在是全年業績。 2022 年的整體表現非常出色，幾乎所有關鍵財務指標都創下了年度記錄。全年總銷售額為 61.5 億美元，比 2021 年增長 11%。有機銷售額增長 11%，收購增長 2%，外匯是 3 點逆風。 2022 年的營業收入為 15 億美元，增長 15%，營業利潤率為 24.4%，比上年增長 80 個基點，而核心利潤率增長了 130 個基點，令人印象深刻，這反映了我們成功應對通貨膨脹和供應鏈挑戰的能力。

EBITDA for the year was $1.83 billion, up 15% from 2021 with EBITDA margins a very strong 29.7%, up 100 basis points from the prior year. Full year earnings were $5.68 per diluted share, up an impressive 17% versus the prior year.

全年 EBITDA 為 18.3 億美元，比 2021 年增長 15%，EBITDA 利潤率非常強勁，為 29.7%，比上年增長 100 個基點。全年攤薄後每股收益為 5.68 美元，較上年增長 17%，令人印象深刻。

AMETEK's performance in a challenging operating environment highlights the proven strength and flexibility of the AMETEK growth model and our ability to successfully navigate through uncertain economic times. Our businesses continue to leverage the key elements of the AMETEK Growth Model to accelerate global growth, develop innovative new products and identify and execute on operational efficiency improvements. Additionally, our business has worked closely with our corporate development team to manage our acquisition pipeline, resulting in a continued strong deployment of capital on strategic acquisitions.

阿美特克在充滿挑戰的運營環境中的表現凸顯了阿美特克增長模式的成熟實力和靈活性，以及我們成功度過不確定的經濟時代的能力。我們的業務繼續利用阿美特克增長模型的關鍵要素來加速全球增長、開發創新的新產品以及確定和執行運營效率改進。此外，我們的業務與我們的企業發展團隊密切合作，以管理我們的收購渠道，從而在戰略收購方面持續大力部署資本。

In 2021 and 2022 combined, we deployed over $2.4 billion in capital on 8 acquisitions and acquired over $600 million in annual sales. We expect to remain active in 2023 as our deal pipeline remains very strong and our balance sheet provides us significant financial capacity to deploy capital.

在 2021 年和 2022 年，我們在 8 次收購中部署了超過 24 億美元的資本，並獲得了超過 6 億美元的年銷售額。我們預計將在 2023 年保持活躍，因為我們的交易渠道仍然非常強勁，而且我們的資產負債表為我們提供了部署資本的強大財務能力。

In addition to our acquisition strategy, we remain committed to investing in organic growth initiatives and are very pleased with the impact these investments are having on AMETEK's growth. As I highlighted during our last earnings call, AMETEK's portfolio has strategically evolved with increased exposure to higher-growth market segments. This portfolio evolution has been driven by our acquisition strategy and by the organic investments we are making in our businesses.

除了我們的收購戰略，我們仍然致力於投資有機增長計劃，並對這些投資對阿美特克的增長產生的影響感到非常高興。正如我在上次財報電話會議上強調的那樣，阿美特克的產品組合在戰略上不斷發展，增加了對高增長細分市場的敞口。這種投資組合的演變是由我們的收購戰略和我們在業務中進行的有機投資推動的。

In 2023, we expect to invest an incremental $90 million in support of these growth initiatives, including investments across research, development and engineering and sales and marketing. One way we measure the success of these investments is through our Vitality Index, which was an outstanding 27% of sales in 2022.

到 2023 年，我們預計將增加 9000 萬美元的投資來支持這些增長計劃，包括對研究、開發和工程以及銷售和營銷的投資。我們衡量這些投資是否成功的一種方法是通過我們的活力指數，該指數佔 2022 年銷售額的 27%。

Our increased investments in RD&E continue to yield innovative advanced technology solutions, including within our Zygo business. Zygo, which is based in Middlefield, Connecticut, designs and manufacture advanced optical metrology systems and ultra-precise optical components and assemblies for a diverse set of end markets, including defense, research and semiconductor. Zygo partnered with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory National Ignition Facility to provide high-end precision optics in support of their inertial fusion energy testing program which provides a significant leap forward in the realization of sustainable fusion energy.

我們在 RD&E 方面增加的投資繼續產生創新的先進技術解決方案，包括在我們的 Zygo 業務中。 Zygo 總部位於康涅狄格州米德爾菲爾德，為包括國防、研究和半導體在內的各種終端市場設計和製造先進的光學計量系統和超精密光學元件和組件。 Zygo 與勞倫斯利弗莫爾國家實驗室國家點火設施合作，提供高端精密光學器件以支持其慣性聚變能測試計劃，該計劃在實現可持續聚變能方面取得了重大飛躍。

Achieving these heights of energy production require the use of highly precise optics and scalable manufacturing processes which were developed in partnership with Zygo. I want to congratulate the Zygo team for their tremendous contributions supporting important advancements in research and technology.

實現這些能源生產高度需要使用與 Zygo 合作開發的高精度光學器件和可擴展的製造工藝。我要祝賀 Zygo 團隊為支持研究和技術的重要進步做出的巨大貢獻。

Lastly, let me briefly touch on the supply chain issues and inflation. While tightness remains in certain areas, we are seeing improvements in the global supply chain and logistics. Additionally, although inflation remains elevated, we are seeing -- we are also seeing modest improvements versus levels experienced in 2022.

最後，讓我簡單談談供應鏈問題和通貨膨脹。雖然某些領域仍然緊張，但我們看到全球供應鍊和物流有所改善。此外，儘管通貨膨脹率仍然很高，但我們看到——與 2022 年的水平相比，我們也看到了適度的改善。

As we look ahead to 2023, we will continue to proactively manage our supply chain and remain confident in our ability to offset inflation with price increases.

展望 2023 年，我們將繼續積極管理我們的供應鏈，並對我們通過價格上漲抵消通脹的能力充滿信心。

Now shifting to our outlook for the year ahead. While macroeconomic uncertainties remain, we are confident in the quality of our businesses, the flexibility of the AMETEK Growth Model and our ability to navigate through these uncertain times. Additionally, given our record backlog and proven operating capability, we are confident in our outlook for 2023.

現在轉向我們對未來一年的展望。儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性依然存在，但我們對我們的業務質量、阿美特克增長模式的靈活性以及我們度過這些不確定時期的能力充滿信心。此外，鑑於我們創紀錄的積壓和經過驗證的運營能力，我們對 2023 年的前景充滿信心。

For 2023, we expect both overall and organic sales to be up mid-single digits versus 2022. Diluted earnings per share for the year are expected to be in the range of $5.84 to $6, up 3% to 6% compared to last year's results. For the first quarter, we anticipate overall sales up mid-single digits, with adjusted earnings up $1.38 to $1.42, up 4% to 7% versus the prior year.

對於 2023 年，我們預計整體銷售額和有機銷售額都將比 2022 年增長中等個位數。全年稀釋後每股收益預計在 5.84 美元至 6 美元之間，與去年的結果相比增長 3% 至 6% .對於第一季度，我們預計整體銷售額將增長中個位數，調整後的收益將增長 1.38 美元至 1.42 美元，比上年增長 4% 至 7%。

In summary, AMETEK's fourth quarter and full year results were excellent. Our record backlog, the strength and flexibility of the AMETEK Growth Model and a world-class workforce position us nicely for 2023.

總之，阿美特克第四季度和全年的業績都非常出色。我們創紀錄的積壓訂單、阿美特克增長模型的實力和靈活性以及世界一流的員工隊伍，使我們在 2023 年處於有利地位。

I will now turn it over to Bill Burke, who will cover some of the financial details of the quarter, then we'll be glad to take your questions. Bill?

我現在將把它交給 Bill Burke，他將介紹本季度的一些財務細節，然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。賬單？

Thank you, Dave. As Dave highlighted, AMETEK had a very strong fourth quarter to complete an outstanding year.

謝謝你，戴夫。正如 Dave 強調的那樣，阿美特克在第四季度表現非常強勁，完成了出色的一年。

In the quarter, we delivered record level operating performance and a high quality of earnings. Let me provide some additional financial highlights for the fourth quarter and for the full year, along with some additional guidance for 2023.

本季度，我們實現了創紀錄的經營業績和高質量的收益。讓我提供一些第四季度和全年的額外財務亮點，以及 2023 年的一些額外指導。

Fourth quarter general and administrative expenses were essentially flat versus the prior year. And for the full year, general and administrative expenses were up $6 million, driven largely by higher compensation costs. And as a percentage of sales, were 1.5% versus 1.6% of sales in 2021. For 2023, general and administrative expenses are expected to be up modestly versus 2022 levels and remain at approximately 1.5% of sales.

第四季度的一般和行政費用與去年同期基本持平。全年，一般和行政費用增加了 600 萬美元，這主要是由於薪酬成本增加所致。佔銷售額的百分比為 1.5%，而 2021 年為 1.6%。到 2023 年，一般和管理費用預計將比 2022 年的水平小幅上升，並保持在銷售額的 1.5% 左右。

The effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 18.9%, up from 17% in the fourth quarter of 2021. For 2023, we anticipate our effective tax rate to be between 19% and 20%. And as we've stated in the past, actual quarterly tax rates can differ dramatically, either positively or negatively from this full year estimated rate.

第四季度的有效稅率為 18.9%，高於 2021 年第四季度的 17%。我們預計 2023 年的有效稅率將在 19% 至 20% 之間。正如我們過去所說，實際的季度稅率可能與全年估計稅率有很大差異，無論是正面還是負面。

Capital expenditures were $58 million in the fourth quarter and $139 million for the full year. Capital expenditures in 2023 are expected to be approximately $140 million or about 2% of sales. Depreciation and amortization expense in the quarter was $89 million and for the full year was $320 million. In 2023, we expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $325 million, including after-tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization of approximately $154 million or $0.66 per diluted share.

第四季度的資本支出為 5800 萬美元，全年為 1.39 億美元。 2023 年的資本支出預計約為 1.4 億美元，約佔銷售額的 2%。本季度的折舊和攤銷費用為 8900 萬美元，全年為 3.2 億美元。到 2023 年，我們預計折舊和攤銷約為 3.25 億美元，包括稅後、與收購相關的無形資產攤銷約為 1.54 億美元或攤薄後每股 0.66 美元。

For the quarter, operating working capital was 18.9% of sales. Cash flow in the fourth quarter was excellent with operating cash flow of $385 million, up 37% versus the fourth quarter of 2021, free cash flow was also up 37% to $327 million in the quarter, while free cash flow conversion was 106% of net income.

本季度，運營營運資金佔銷售額的 18.9%。第四季度的現金流非常好，運營現金流為 3.85 億美元，比 2021 年第四季度增長 37%，自由現金流也增長了 37%，達到 3.27 億美元，而自由現金流轉換為 106%淨利。

Total debt at year-end was $2.39 billion, down from $2.54 billion at the end of 2021. Offsetting this debt is cash and cash equivalents of $345 million and during the fourth quarter, we deployed approximately $240 million on the acquisition of RTDS Technologies. Gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio at year-end was 1.2x, and our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.1x.

年底的總債務為 23.9 億美元，低於 2021 年底的 25.4 億美元。抵消這筆債務的是現金和現金等價物 3.45 億美元，在第四季度，我們部署了約 2.4 億美元用於收購 RTDS Technologies。年末總債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.2 倍，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

As Dave noted, we remain active on the acquisition front with a solid pipeline of acquisition candidates. Given our strong cash flow and modest levels of leverage, we are well positioned to deploy additional capital. We have approximately $2.3 billion of cash and existing credit facilities to support our growth initiatives.

正如 Dave 指出的那樣，我們在收購方面保持活躍，擁有大量的收購候選人。鑑於我們強勁的現金流和適度的槓桿水平，我們有能力部署額外的資本。我們擁有大約 23 億美元的現金和現有信貸額度來支持我們的增長計劃。

In summary, our businesses performed exceptionally well in the fourth quarter and throughout all of 2022, delivering strong growth and a high quality of earnings in a challenging operating environment. AMETEK is well positioned for 2023, given our strong financial position, our proven growth model and our world-class workforce.

總而言之，我們的業務在第四季度和整個 2022 年表現出色，在充滿挑戰的經營環境中實現了強勁的增長和高質量的收益。鑑於我們強大的財務狀況、成熟的增長模式和世界一流的員工隊伍，阿美特克已為 2023 年做好準備。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thank you, Bill. Rocco, can we please open the lines for questions?

謝謝你，比爾。 Rocco，我們可以打開問題熱線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Allison Poliniak。

Can we turn organic investments, the $90 million, if I recall, I think that's a step down from what you did in '22. Just any color there? Is it just some conservative nature just given the uncertainty out there? Or are there unusual projects in '22? Just any thoughts on that side.

如果我還記得的話，我們能否轉向有機投資，即 9000 萬美元，我認為這與你在 22 年所做的相比有所下降。那裡只有任何顏色？鑑於那裡的不確定性，這只是一些保守的本性嗎？還是 22 年有不尋常的項目？關於那方面的任何想法。

Yes. That's -- to start out the year. And there's a potential to do more. And -- but the $90 million was a good number. It's incremental, keep in mind, incremental over what we've done in 2022. So it's incremental when we're making healthy investments in RD&E, is up double digits for the year and healthy investments for sales and marketing. So we think the $90 million is appropriate. And obviously, that can be flexed up or down if required.

是的。那是 - 開始新的一年。而且還有做更多事情的潛力。而且 - 但 9000 萬美元是一個不錯的數字。請記住，它是增量的，比我們在 2022 年所做的還要多。因此，當我們對 RD&E 進行健康投資時，它是增量的，今年增長了兩位數，對銷售和營銷的投資也很健康。所以我們認為9000萬美元是合適的。顯然，如果需要，可以向上或向下彎曲。

Great. And then a lot of concern certainly out there about potentially some weakness showing up in H2. Just any thoughts on your end, what you're seeing in terms of that? Is there anything concerning or sort of popping out that kind of has you a bit worried as we enter sort of the back half of '23 and into '24?

偉大的。然後肯定會有很多人擔心 H2 可能會出現一些弱點。關於您的任何想法，您對此有何看法？當我們進入 23 年的後半部分和 24 年的時候，有什麼關於或突然出現的事情讓你有點擔心嗎？

Not really. I mean the -- obviously, our growth is slowing, but record backlogs and we're executing very well. We're getting the price, and it still feels good to us. It feels strong and good. And when you get out to the second half of 2023, I mean there's less visibility because you're further out. But our backlog is at a record level. It's usually at about 30% of annual sales. And right now, it's running at about 50% of annual sales. So we feel really good, and we don't see a slowdown yet.

並不真地。我的意思是 - 顯然，我們的增長正在放緩，但記錄積壓，我們執行得非常好。我們得到了價格，它對我們來說仍然感覺很好。感覺很結實很好。當你到 2023 年下半年時，我的意思是能見度降低，因為你離得更遠了。但是我們的積壓處於創紀錄的水平。它通常約為年銷售額的 30%。現在，它的銷售額佔年銷售額的 50% 左右。所以我們感覺非常好，我們還沒有看到放緩。

And our next question today comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Good morning, everyone. I was hoping you take us through the key end markets. And then also on the regional updates, it's been interesting, maybe people got too negative on Europe. So let's know how Europe did and then China reopening. How does that impact you all?

大家，早安。我希望您能帶我們了解主要的終端市場。然後在區域更新方面，這很有趣，也許人們對歐洲過於消極了。因此，讓我們了解歐洲是如何做的，然後中國是如何重新開放的。這對你們所有人有何影響？

Sure. I'll start with your second question, the geographical outlook. Strong broad-based growth across most geographies. Our Asia region was flat on China headwinds. And to your point, our fastest-growing market was Europe. Europe was up 12% with notable strength in both our process and aerospace defense markets. And then we had a really strong performance in the U.S., up 10% organically -- broad-based strength, notable strength in our Process businesses. And in Asia, as I said, it was flat with notable strength in aerospace and defense and process. And China was down for us, low double digits in the quarter on a difficult prior year comp and the impact of the Zero COVID policy. Asia, we think that the China situation is going to turn around as the reopening occurs, and we're pretty optimistic for it in the second half. But that's the picture in Q4.

當然。我將從你的第二個問題開始，即地理前景。大多數地區都有廣泛的強勁增長。我們的亞洲地區在中國的逆風中表現平平。就您而言，我們增長最快的市場是歐洲。歐洲增長了 12%，在我們的工藝和航空航天國防市場都表現出顯著的實力。然後我們在美國的表現非常強勁，有機增長 10%——基礎廣泛的實力，我們流程業務的顯著實力。而在亞洲，正如我所說，它在航空航天、國防和工藝方面表現平平，實力顯著。中國對我們來說是下滑的，由於前一年的困難和零 COVID 政策的影響，本季度的兩位數較低。亞洲，我們認為隨著重新開放的發生，中國的情況將會好轉，我們對下半年的情況非常樂觀。但那是第四季度的情況。

Really strong broad-based growth, strongest Europe, second U.S. most of Asia was really good in China, there was some weakness.

真正強勁的廣泛增長，最強勁的歐洲，美國第二大亞洲大部分地區在中國真的很好，有一些弱點。

And the second question was in the market segment summary. I'll take a walk around the company and our process area, our overall process businesses, they were up high single digits in the quarter. Organic sales were up 10%. And we also had the contributions from the acquisition of Navitar and it was offset by foreign currency headwinds.

第二個問題是在細分市場摘要中。我將繞過公司和我們的流程領域，我們的整體流程業務，它們在本季度實現了高個位數增長。有機銷售額增長了 10%。我們也有收購 Navitar 的貢獻，但被外匯逆風所抵消。

And as we saw throughout last year, growth across our process businesses was particularly with -- was broad-based, but it was particularly strong in our Ultra Precision Technologies businesses in the quarter. And as we look ahead to 2023, we expect organic sales for Process businesses to be up mid-single digits for the year.

正如我們在去年全年看到的那樣，我們流程業務的增長特別是 - 基礎廣泛，但本季度我們的超精密技術業務尤其強勁。展望 2023 年，我們預計流程業務的有機銷售額今年將增長中個位數。

Next, I'll talk about aerospace and defense. Our Aerospace and Defense businesses had a very strong finish to the year with overall and organic sales up mid-teens. So that was the strongest growth rate of the year for aerospace and defense. Our commercial business has led the growth in the quarter. We had sales of high teens on a percentage basis in the commercial business and defense was also strong in the quarter, growing low double digits. And for all of 2023, we expect organic sales for our Aerospace and Defense businesses to be up mid- to high single digits with commercial aerospace growth expected to be modestly stronger than defense growth.

接下來，我將談談航空航天和國防。我們的航空航天和國防業務在這一年取得了非常強勁的成績，整體銷售額和有機銷售額增長了十幾歲。因此，這是航空航天和國防領域今年最強勁的增長率。我們的商業業務引領了本季度的增長。我們在商業業務和國防業務中的百分比基礎上的銷售額在本季度也很強勁，增長低兩位數。在整個 2023 年，我們預計我們的航空航天和國防業務的有機銷售額將達到中高個位數，商業航空航天的增長預計將略高於國防增長。

Next, go to Power & Industrial. Overall sales for our Power & Industrial businesses were up high single digits in the fourth quarter, driven by mid-single-digit organic growth and the contributions from the acquisition of RTDS. Growth in the quarter was particularly strong across our programmable power business. For all of 2023, we expect organic sales for our Power & Industrial business to be up mid-single digits with similar growth across both the Power & Industrial segments.

接下來，轉到電力與工業。在中等個位數的有機增長和收購 RTDS 的貢獻的推動下，我們的電力和工業業務的整體銷售額在第四季度實現了高個位數增長。本季度我們可編程電源業務的增長尤為強勁。在整個 2023 年，我們預計我們的電力和工業業務的有機銷售額將增長中等個位數，電力和工業部門的增長相似。

And finally, I'll talk about our Automation and Engineered Solutions market segment. And overall sales were up low single digits in the fourth quarter with very solid mid-single-digit organic sales growth. We had some currency headwind in that segment. I was very pleased with overall growth and the performance of automation and engineered solutions in 2022. They're continuing to expand exposures in attractive niche markets. In particular, our engineered medical components business saw a strong growth in the quarter.

最後，我將談談我們的自動化和工程解決方案市場部分。第四季度整體銷售額呈低個位數增長，有機銷售額實現非常穩健的中等個位數增長。我們在該領域遇到了一些貨幣逆風。我對 2022 年自動化和工程解決方案的整體增長和表現感到非常滿意。他們將繼續擴大在有吸引力的利基市場的曝光率。特別是，我們的工程醫療部件業務在本季度實現了強勁增長。

And in 2023, we expect organic sales for our Automation & Engineered Solutions businesses to be up mid-single digits with similar growth expected across both our automation and Engineered Solutions business.

到 2023 年，我們預計自動化和工程解決方案業務的有機銷售額將達到中等個位數，我們的自動化和工程解決方案業務預計也將實現類似的增長。

That's a walk around the company. Deane, do you have any more questions?

那是在公司裡走走。迪恩，你還有什麼問題嗎？

Yes. Just as a follow-up, just how would you characterize the pace of orders, industrial demand the size of orders? Is there -- just with respect to how normalization might be happening for AMETEK's businesses?

是的。作為後續行動，您如何描述訂單的速度，工業需求的訂單規模？是否有 - 關於 AMETEK 的業務可能如何正常化？

That's a great question, Deane. Our overall orders were up 1.5% in the quarter. And the overall demand environment, as I answered Allison's questions, feels really solid. We had our tenth straight positive book-to-bill quarter and we ended with an all-time record backlog, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. This level of backlog, as I said, was 50% of our annual sales, well above the normal level of 30%, and it's up 78% from the end of 2020. So we're in a really strong position as we enter 2023.

這是一個很好的問題，迪恩。本季度我們的整體訂單增長了 1.5%。當我回答 Allison 的問題時，整體需求環境感覺非常穩固。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們連續第十個季度的訂單出貨比為正，我們以創紀錄的積壓結束。正如我所說，這一積壓水平占我們年銷售額的 50%，遠高於 30% 的正常水平，比 2020 年底增長了 78%。因此，我們在進入 2023 年時處於非常有利的地位.

To your question on some of the nuances, if you recall, over the last couple of earnings calls, we highlighted a couple of dynamics that would impact our order growth. The first was the difficult comparisons we're facing because those orders have been strong for an extended period of time to give some context, over the prior 9 quarters, our orders grew over 20% a quarter. So it's been sizable and sustained that helped build the backlog.

對於你關於一些細微差別的問題，如果你還記得的話，在過去的幾次財報電話會議上，我們強調了一些會影響我們訂單增長的動態。首先是我們面臨的困難比較，因為這些訂單在很長一段時間內都很強勁，可以提供一些背景信息，在過去的 9 個季度中，我們的訂單每個季度增長超過 20%。因此，它的規模和持續性幫助建立了積壓。

The second dynamic we highlighted was the expectation of customers to return to more normalized ordering patterns, now that the supply chain is improving, and we started to see that dynamic play out in the fourth quarter.

我們強調的第二個動態是客戶期望恢復更正常的訂購模式，現在供應鏈正在改善，我們開始看到這種動態在第四季度發揮作用。

So overall, we're comfortable with our order levels in Q4. After starting off in January, we just finished January, we had another solid orders a month ahead of our expectations and solidly up from January 2022 order levels. So again, we're feeling pretty good with a strong backlog and our orders are hanging in there. So we think that we're looking at a pretty good year.

總的來說，我們對第四季度的訂單水平感到滿意。在 1 月份開始之後，我們剛剛結束 1 月份，我們又比預期提前一個月收到了穩定的訂單，並且比 2022 年 1 月的訂單水平穩步上升。因此，我們再次感覺非常好，積壓量很大，我們的訂單懸而未決。所以我們認為我們正在尋找一個非常好的一年。

Next question today comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

今天的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I just wanted to come back to inventories. Some of your peers have been talking about some elevated inventory in some of the OEM channels. Just curious what you're seeing there in some of your served businesses, served markets and if there's any area of concern there?

我只是想回到庫存。您的一些同行一直在談論一些 OEM 渠道中的庫存增加。只是好奇您在一些服務的企業、服務的市場中看到了什麼，是否有任何值得關注的領域？

Yes. The first point I'd like to make is that when you're looking at customer inventories, a lot of our products are customized and they're high-value products. So we don't really have a lot of distributor stocking issues to worry about.

是的。我想說的第一點是，當你查看客戶庫存時，我們的很多產品都是定制的，它們是高價值產品。所以我們真的不需要擔心很多分銷商的庫存問題。

That's particularly true in EIG. In EMG, there's more of an OEM field to the customer base, and that's where you're seeing a bit of the customer ordering patterns normalize. But overall, we think we've got to go to end on it, and we feel pretty good about where we're at.

在 EIG 中尤其如此。在 EMG 中，客戶群有更多的 OEM 領域，這就是您看到一些客戶訂購模式正常化的地方。但總的來說，我們認為我們必須結束它，我們對我們所處的位置感覺很好。

Yes, okay. That's great. Just shifting to the 2023 outlook. I was hoping maybe you could put a finer point on just the underlying assumptions. How much price do you expect versus volume? And then anything specific on the quarterly phasing, I mean do you think you get growth in both the first half, second half? Or as you work down the backlog, does it begin to decline there in the second half?

是的，好的。那太棒了。只是轉向 2023 年的展望。我希望也許你可以對基本假設提出更好的觀點。您期望的價格與數量相比是多少？然後是關於季度階段的任何具體內容，我的意思是你認為你在上半年和下半年都有增長嗎？或者當你處理積壓工作時，它會在下半年開始下降嗎？

Yes. Great question. I mean with our budget model, we pretty much have a traditional first quarter, so it's not really second half biased and we think we'll grow in each of the quarters of the year.

是的。很好的問題。我的意思是，在我們的預算模型中，我們幾乎有一個傳統的第一季度，所以下半年並不是真正有偏見的，我們認為我們會在一年中的每個季度都有增長。

In terms of pricing, in our budget model, we have about 4 points of price, and we assume that we have about 3.5 points of inflation. So we're going to offset price and inflation by about 50 basis points. Now that's down a bit from 2022 where we had about 6 points of price, and we offset about 5 points of inflation. But it's the guide for the entire year, and we're being a bit conservative now. And we'll probably start out a little better than that. But -- that's our plan for 2023.

在定價方面，在我們的預算模型中，我們有大約 4 個點的價格，我們假設我們有大約 3.5 個點的通貨膨脹。因此，我們將抵消價格和通貨膨脹約 50 個基點。現在這比 2022 年的價格下降了大約 6 個百分點，我們抵消了大約 5 個百分點的通貨膨脹。但這是全年的指南，我們現在有點保守。我們可能會開始比這好一點。但是——這是我們 2023 年的計劃。

Also in 2023, I mean, in addition to staying in front of inflation with price, we think supply chain shortages are going to abate, and we believe our working capital levels will decrease to more normalized levels. So a very healthy 110% to 115% conversion to net income on the free cash flow.

同樣在 2023 年，我的意思是，除了通過價格來應對通脹之外，我們認為供應鏈短缺將會減少，我們相信我們的營運資金水平將下降到更正常的水平。因此，自由現金流的淨收入轉化率非常健康，為 110% 至 115%。

We also think that in terms of vertical markets, we do expect our longer-cycle aerospace and defense business is to be a bit stronger than the balance of the portfolio. So I went through the mortgage segment commentary with Deane, it was a little bit higher. It was -- had a mid- to high outlook. So we think that's going to be true and that was accelerating as we -- each quarter of 2022 really.

我們還認為，就垂直市場而言，我們確實預計我們的長周期航空航天和國防業務會比投資組合的平衡更強大一些。所以我和迪恩一起看了抵押貸款部分的評論，它有點高。這是 - 具有中高前景。因此，我們認為這將是真實的，並且隨著我們 - 2022 年每個季度的實際情況而加速。

I -- we expect the -- both of our groups to grow mid-single digits. We talked about the historically strong backlog and that's some assumptions that went into our budget.

我 - 我們預計 - 我們的兩個集團都將增長中等個位數。我們談到了歷史上大量的積壓，這是我們預算中的一些假設。

Do you have any other questions, Brett?

布雷特，你還有其他問題嗎？

No, that's a great quarter, and I appreciate all the insight.

不，這是一個很棒的季度，我很欣賞所有的見解。

And our next questioner today is Scott Graham from Loop.

我們今天的下一位提問者是來自 Loop 的 Scott Graham。

And really congrats on that Zygo. That's a pretty big deal.

真的恭喜那個 Zygo。這是一件大事。

Yes. That's really interesting. We're really helping -- that team there did a great job and it's working on fusion energy is a great thing, and it just shows our capability.

是的。這真的很有趣。我們真的在提供幫助——那裡的團隊做得很好，他們在聚變能方面的工作是一件了不起的事情，它只是展示了我們的能力。

Yes, for sure. The orders, Dave, you said up 1.5% in the quarter. Was that organic? And can you also tell us the split by segment?

是肯定的。訂單，戴夫，你說本季度增長了 1.5%。那是有機的嗎？你能告訴我們細分市場嗎？

Yes. That was overall orders. Organic was down minus 2% and so overall orders were up 1.5%. Organic was minus 2%. And both segments were about at that same one book-to-bill. So it wasn't a distinct difference between the segments. And as I said, our overall demand environment feels solid, tenth straight quarter of book-to-bill. So we have a strong backlog and as we have this dynamic of customers returning to more normalized ordering patterns, we have a strong backlog. So we feel pretty good about it.

是的。那是總體訂單。有機產品下降了-2%，因此整體訂單增長了 1.5%。有機含量為-2%。這兩個細分市場的訂單出貨量差不多。所以這並不是細分市場之間的明顯差異。正如我所說，我們的整體需求環境感覺穩固，連續第十個季度的訂單出貨。因此，我們有大量積壓，並且由於我們有這種客戶返回更規範化訂購模式的動態，我們有大量積壓。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Okay. Great. Based on your answer to the prior question, is it possible then that sales volumes could sort of flatten out in the second half of the year? And your growth organic is essentially all price? Is that what you're thinking cadence-wise?

好的。偉大的。根據您對前一個問題的回答，下半年銷量是否有可能趨於平穩？你的有機增長基本上是所有價格？那是您在節奏方面的想法嗎？

Yes. I don't think in the second half of the year. I mean, we're going to have some healthy price, but I think it's going to actually increase a bit in the second half. And if you think about our order rates, we have that mid-single-digit sales growth forecasted. We think we're going to grow orders also. So orders are going to grow a little bit less than sales as our forecast, but they're going to grow.

是的。我認為下半年不會。我的意思是，我們會有一些健康的價格，但我認為下半年它實際上會增加一點。如果你考慮一下我們的訂單率，我們會預測到中個位數的銷售增長。我們認為我們也會增加訂單。因此，正如我們預測的那樣，訂單的增長將略低於銷售額，但它們將會增長。

And really, by the end of the year, our backlog is still going to be at elevated levels. It will be down a bit, but at elevated levels historically. So we clearly don't -- with our strong backlog, which will provide a buffer if there is some kind of downturn. We don't see it right now and our orders will be up, they'll just be up a little less than sales. And again, at the end of 2023, we have historically elevated levels of backlog similar to now.

事實上，到今年年底，我們的積壓工作仍將處於較高水平。它會有所下降，但從歷史上看處於較高水平。所以我們顯然沒有——我們積壓了大量的訂單，如果出現某種低迷，這將提供緩衝。我們現在看不到它，我們的訂單會增加，只是比銷售額少一點。再一次，到 2023 年底，我們的積壓水平在歷史上與現在類似。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from a Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Matt Summerville。戴維森。

This is William Jellison on for Matt Summerville today. I was curious about your recent acquisitions of Navitar and RTDS and just about your first observations with those companies as part of the AMETEK portfolio, how do things unfold relative to expectations and how are things going with bringing them into the fold?

我是今天馬特薩默維爾的威廉傑里森。我很好奇您最近對 Navitar 和 RTDS 的收購，以及您對作為 AMETEK 投資組合的一部分的這些公司的第一次觀察，事情相對於預期如何展開，以及將它們納入其中的情況如何？

Yes. They're going very well. I mean Bill and I have met with both of the acquisition integration teams and really positive, just to recap a little bit. RTDS provides real-time power simulations used by utilities and very strategic acquisition that broadens our Power Instruments businesses with differentiated testing and measurement and simulation capabilities. So it's an attractive position in a high-growth market. Really good team. I mean just experts in the field and is kind of fun interacting with them, and they're really adopting AMETEK and feel good about that one.

是的。他們進展順利。我的意思是比爾和我已經與兩個收購整合團隊會面並且非常積極，只是回顧一下。 RTDS 提供公用事業使用的實時功率模擬和非常具有戰略意義的收購，通過差異化的測試、測量和模擬能力擴大了我們的電力儀器業務。因此，它在高增長市場中的地位頗具吸引力。真的很好的團隊。我的意思是只是該領域的專家，與他們互動很有趣，他們真的在採用 AMETEK 並且對此感覺良好。

Same with Navitar. Navitar is in some good growth markets. The optics market is doing quite well with us. And even in the semiconductor space where they play, their main customer is one that's very differentiated and has unique capabilities. So that, along with Life Sciences, along with some machine vision, there's a very good outlook there. And that business is a little bit different. It's being integrated into our Zygo business. So it has new capability for Zygo, a much needed capacity for Zygo and the integration is going very well.

與 Navitar 相同。 Navitar 在一些增長良好的市場中。光學市場對我們來說做得很好。即使在他們所涉足的半導體領域，他們的主要客戶也是差異化且具有獨特能力的客戶。因此，與生命科學以及一些機器視覺一起，那裡的前景非常好。而這項業務有點不同。它正被整合到我們的 Zygo 業務中。因此它具有 Zygo 的新功能，這是 Zygo 急需的功能，並且集成進行得非常順利。

Great. And then as a follow-up, staying on the theme of M&A, you mentioned your pipeline is very strong at this juncture. And I'm curious about what your observations are in the market overall with respect to the level of competition for assets and where multiples seem to be moving in your observation?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，繼續關注併購主題，你提到你的管道在這個時候非常強大。我很好奇你對資產競爭水平的整體市場觀察是什麼，以及在你的觀察中倍數似乎在哪裡移動？

Right. Yes, I think with the -- the interest rates increasing and with money not as free as it was, it's actually an advantage to us. So we have a good pipeline and a good balance sheet, and we remain very active with a solid pipeline of deals. The valuations have come in a bit. Of course, we're looking at some quality assets though. So they're still a bit elevated from historical levels, but no doubt they've come in.

正確的。是的，我認為隨著 - 利率上升和資金不像以前那樣自由，這實際上對我們來說是一個優勢。因此，我們擁有良好的管道和良好的資產負債表，並且我們通過穩固的交易管道保持非常活躍。估值有所上升。當然，我們正在尋找一些優質資產。所以他們仍然比歷史水平高了一點，但毫無疑問他們已經進來了。

And important for us in our pipeline, we have a very disciplined acquisition process. And these deals we're going to meet our traditional financial hurdles, which is primarily a return on invested capital of 10% by the third year of ownership. These are important thresholds for us as we want to ensure we're providing a strong level of returns on the capital we deploy for our shareholders. And that's been a hallmark of AMETEK's acquisition program for a long period of time.

在我們的管道中對我們很重要，我們有一個非常有紀律的收購過程。這些交易我們將克服我們傳統的財務障礙，這主要是到所有權的第三年投資資本回報率達到 10%。這些對我們來說是重要的門檻，因為我們希望確保我們為股東部署的資本提供高水平的回報。長期以來，這一直是 AMETEK 採購計劃的標誌。

We do this all with cash and debt, don't use equity and there's a bigger pipeline right now than there has been historically because when there's less money around the system to bid up deals. So we feel pretty good with where we're at, and if we do something, and I believe we will be talking to you about deals in the near future, they're going to be -- they're going to meet all of our traditional hurdles, and we're committed to have an investment-grade credit rating, and we've got plenty of about $2.3 billion of capital and financing capacity available.

我們用現金和債務來做這一切，不使用股權，現在有比歷史上更大的管道，因為當系統周圍的資金減少時，可以競價交易。所以我們對我們所處的位置感覺很好，如果我們做點什麼，我相信我們會在不久的將來與您討論交易，他們將會——他們將滿足所有我們的傳統障礙，我們致力於擁有投資級信用評級，並且我們擁有大約 23 億美元的充足資本和融資能力。

So -- so in this environment, the discipline is going to be a key word as it's always been for AMETEK, but I mean very key in terms of executing our forward-looking M&A strategy.

所以 - 所以在這種環境下，紀律將成為一個關鍵詞，因為它一直是阿美特克的關鍵詞，但我的意思是在執行我們的前瞻性併購戰略方面非常關鍵。

Our next question today comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們今天的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Andrew Obin。

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. How much of the onetime costs around supply chain disruptions last year, the higher freight costs, spot buys and electronics, all those things fall off in 2023? I guess I'm wondering, is this a meaningful tailwind in kind of your forecast?

這是安德魯奧賓的大衛雷德利萊恩。去年供應鏈中斷帶來的一次性成本中有多少，更高的運費、現貨採購和電子產品成本，所有這些都將在 2023 年下降？我想我想知道，這對你的預測來說是一個有意義的順風嗎？

Yes. I think that what you're going to see -- there's still an elevated level of inflation. But at the same time, some of the -- the onetime distributor purchase of inventory are going to go away. So there's going to be some natural tailwinds for us in terms of margins. We expect that working in the P&L in our budget model, our productivity/cost savings of about $110 million. So we think it will be substantial. And that's where we're starting out the year, but we think there's maybe even some upside to that and it's largely related to -- there's a couple of opposing forces you're dealing with inflation and some cost of things are still going up. But at the same time, some of the supply chain issues are working the other way, especially the higher prices that we paid on a onetime basis to some of the electronics distributors to continue shipping product.

是的。我認為你將看到的是——通貨膨脹水平仍然很高。但與此同時，一些 - 曾經的經銷商購買庫存將消失。因此，就利潤率而言，我們會有一些自然的順風。我們預計，在我們的預算模型中使用 P&L，我們的生產力/成本節省約 1.1 億美元。所以我們認為這將是可觀的。這就是我們今年開始的地方，但我們認為這甚至可能有一些好處，這在很大程度上與 - 你正在應對通貨膨脹的一些相反力量，一些事情的成本仍在上升。但與此同時，一些供應鏈問題正在以相反的方式發揮作用，尤其是我們一次性向一些電子產品分銷商支付更高的價格以繼續運送產品。

Got it. And then you have been adding capacity through 2022. I guess in the CapEx, what's kind of growth versus maintenance or whatever framework you want to use to discuss kind of how you're thinking about capacity additions?

知道了。然後你一直在增加容量到 2022 年。我想在資本支出中，增長與維護是什麼，或者你想用什麼框架來討論你如何考慮增加容量？

We added a lot of capacity in 2022. We brought some low-cost region facilities online. We've talked about that. For 2023, we expect our capital expenditures to be flat. A little bit more than 2% of sales as we've done historically. So -- and it's a good balance between growth CapEx, maintenance CapEx and CapEx funding cost reduction.

我們在 2022 年增加了很多容量。我們將一些低成本的區域設施上線。我們已經談過了。到 2023 年，我們預計我們的資本支出將持平。比我們以往所做的略多於銷售額的 2%。所以——這是增長資本支出、維護資本支出和資本支出資金成本降低之間的良好平衡。

Good. Now if I could get one more in. What is your expected EPS contribution from Navitar and RTDS?

好的。現在，如果我能再得到一個。Navitar 和 RTDS 對 EPS 的預期貢獻是多少？

Yes. I'm not going to break out the deals, but they'll be slightly accretive.

是的。我不會打破這些交易，但它們會略有增加。

And our next question today comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Joe Giordano 和 Cowen。

You mentioned customers kind of getting normalized on their behavior and their ordering patterns. Like -- can you maybe get a little bit finer point on that and like what you're seeing? And are actual things getting pushed out? Or are they just ordering more real time?

您提到客戶在某種程度上對他們的行為和訂購模式進行了規範化。就像——你能不能對此說得更詳細一點，就像你所看到的那樣？實際的東西被推出了嗎？或者他們只是更實時地訂購？

Yes. If you think about it from the customer's view, they've kind of got trained by the pandemic to order things early. And now most companies are getting -- including AMETEK is getting back to being able to deliver in lead time. In fact, that's part of the reason that we grow our businesses at a faster rate during the pandemic period, we were able to ship and deliver and we had the inventory buffer.

是的。如果您從客戶的角度考慮，他們會受到大流行病的訓練，可以提前訂購。現在大多數公司都得到了 - 包括 AMETEK 正在恢復能夠按時交貨。事實上，這就是我們在大流行期間以更快的速度發展業務的部分原因，我們能夠發貨和交付，並且我們有庫存緩衝。

So what's happening is as customers normalize their buying patterns, they don't have to order early anymore. And that's what's really happening I think across the broader supply chain, and we're seeing that. So that's the main normalization that we're talking about.

所以現在發生的事情是，隨著客戶將他們的購買模式正常化，他們不必再提前訂購了。這就是我認為在更廣泛的供應鏈中真正發生的事情，我們正在看到這一點。這就是我們正在談論的主要規範化。

And then when you mentioned the M&A pipeline looks good. How do you think about timing of execution, just given the macro here, given it looks like industrial is getting light, is getting weaker. And are you relying on trailing 12 results that might be different than forward 12 for acquired for companies that you're looking at. So how does it impact your desire to be actionable right now given where we are in the business cycle?

然後當你提到併購管道看起來不錯時。你如何看待執行時間，只是考慮到這裡的宏觀，因為看起來工業正在變得越來越弱，正在變得越來越弱。對於您正在尋找的公司，您是否依賴尾隨 12 個結果，這些結果可能與前 12 個結果不同。那麼，鑑於我們處於商業周期中的哪個位置，它如何影響您現在採取行動的願望？

AMETEK has historically bought through both up cycles and down cycles. And sometimes you can get your best deals during a down cycle, and you have to be cognizant of what the forward-looking EBITDA is not really the trailing, but the forward. So it's something that we've been keenly aware of for years, and we're focused on that.

AMETEK 歷來都經歷過上升週期和下降週期。有時你可以在下行週期中獲得最好的交易，你必須認識到前瞻性 EBITDA 並不是真正的尾隨，而是前瞻。所以這是我們多年來一直敏銳地意識到的事情，我們一直專注於此。

And our next question today comes from Rob Mason at Baird.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Rob Mason。

Dave, I was going to see if you could drill into the process segment a little more. You called out Ultra Precision with relative stronger growth. Does that carry forward into '23, just in terms of what leads that part of the business? And then just maybe higher level, any way to cut the mix of what that process segment that sells into more of an R&D function versus more of a production environment?

戴夫，我打算看看你是否可以深入了解流程部分。你以相對強勁的增長呼喚了 Ultra Precision。就領導這部分業務的原因而言，這是否會延續到 23 年？然後可能只是更高級別，有什麼方法可以減少銷售到更多研發功能與更多生產環境的流程部分的混合？

Yes, that's a good way to think about it. And I'll try to put some more color into that. I mean if you look at 2022, what stood out was our health care component. And our health care component is a big part of process across all of AMETEK. It's about 15% of sales, but it's a big part of process. And I'll give you an idea and Q4, our Rauland business was up 20% organically. So they've really done a good job in that market, hospital spending has been fantastic for us, and people are putting in new systems post-pandemic.

是的，這是一個很好的思考方式。我會嘗試添加更多顏色。我的意思是，如果你看看 2022 年，最突出的是我們的醫療保健部分。我們的醫療保健部分是整個阿美特克流程的重要組成部分。它大約佔銷售額的 15%，但它是流程的重要組成部分。我會給你一個想法，第四季度，我們的 Rauland 業務有機增長了 20%。所以他們在那個市場上確實做得很好，醫院支出對我們來說非常棒，而且人們在大流行後正在投入新的系統。

Also the semiconductor market is about 6% of sales, and the vast majority of that is in process. And the semiconductor market was up high single digits in the Q4. And we think in 2023, there will be a slight downtick there. That will be up low to mid, but still growing because we have a lot of applications in research, and also in areas that are continuing to grow. So we're in the right places in semiconductor.

此外，半導體市場約佔銷售額的 6%，其中絕大部分都在進行中。半導體市場在第四季度上漲了個位數。我們認為到 2023 年，那裡會出現小幅下滑。這將是低到中等，但仍在增長，因為我們在研究中有很多應用，而且在不斷增長的領域。所以我們在半導體領域處於正確的位置。

So you got health care, you've got semiconductor, you've got the research market where we've had our CAMECA business, just every lab in the world has to have one of our Atom Probes. Every lab in the world has to have some of our SIMS products. So their backlog is really good, and they're doing well.

所以你有醫療保健，你有半導體，你有我們有 CAMECA 業務的研究市場，世界上的每個實驗室都必須擁有我們的原子探針之一。世界上的每個實驗室都必須擁有我們的一些 SIMS 產品。所以他們的積壓真的很好，而且他們做得很好。

And then you got the oil -- old traditional oil and gas part of process, and that's done very well. In Q4, it was up high single digits. And for all of '22, it was up low double digits. And for '23, we expect plus high single digits. So process is doing very well. And we think it's going to continue in the future.

然後你得到了石油——舊的傳統石油和天然氣過程的一部分，而且做得很好。在第四季度，它上漲了個位數。在 22 年的所有時間裡，它都以兩位數的低位增長。而對於 23 年，我們預計會有高個位數。所以過程做得很好。我們認為它會在未來繼續下去。

Excellent. That's very helpful. Just as a follow-up, could you speak to how you think the incremental will look for EIG versus EMG in '23? They were -- EMG was certainly very strong in '22. But just how do those look going forward compared to...

出色的。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，您能否談談您認為增量將如何尋找 23 年的 EIG 與 EMG？他們是——EMG 在 22 年肯定非常強大。但是，與……相比，這些人如何看待未來？

Good question. In terms of incremental, in both groups, I think the core incremental will be up 30% to 35%. And I think the core and reported margins be up 30 to 40 bps. So we really think we have a clear line of sight to grow margins again and it will be healthy incremental and we'll be able to increase our core margins as we go forward.

好問題。在增量方面，在這兩個群體中，我認為核心增量將增長 30% 到 35%。我認為核心和報告的利潤率將上升 30 到 40 個基點。所以我們真的認為我們有一個清晰的視線來再次增加利潤率，這將是健康的增量，我們將能夠在我們前進的過程中增加我們的核心利潤率。

And our next question today comes from Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

Some automation and robotics OEMs have recently talked about distribution channel bottlenecks being a hindrance to growth. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in that market, both near term and expectations for how that market grows in the future?

一些自動化和機器人原始設備製造商最近談到分銷渠道瓶頸是增長的障礙。您能否談談您在該市場中看到的情況，包括近期和對該市場未來增長的預期？

For -- yes, I think for 2023, we think that business will be up mid-single digits and both our automation and our Engineered Solutions will be up mid-single digits. I think that's -- we're selling the mainly OEM customers there. So you're going to have a bit of the effect of the ordering patterns, the change in ordering patterns there, but we have a really healthy backlog. So it's really what we talked about.

對於 - 是的，我認為到 2023 年，我們認為業務將增長到中個位數，我們的自動化和我們的工程解決方案都將增長到中個位數。我認為那是——我們在那裡主要銷售 OEM 客戶。所以你會有一些訂購模式的影響，那裡訂購模式的變化，但我們有一個非常健康的積壓。所以這真的是我們談論的內容。

Customers are changing ordering patterns. We're really good at delivery. So we're meeting our customer commitments. So they're now ordering at normal lead times. So you'll see a little bit of the order corrections that we talked about in Q4 continuing, but we still have a record backlog and all the comments that I made hold for that part of the business also.

客戶正在改變訂購模式。我們真的很擅長送貨。因此，我們正在履行我們對客戶的承諾。所以他們現在按正常交貨時間訂購。所以你會看到我們在第四季度談到的一些訂單更正仍在繼續，但我們仍然有創紀錄的積壓，我對這部分業務的所有評論也是如此。

Got it. And obviously, semiconductor demand has been under pressure, especially on the memory side. But you just said you're in the right places to grow. Does that mean you supply -- you're supplying the makers of tools that go to foundry and logic? Or just how will you grow this year in the context of what's a pretty tough memory stuff there.

知道了。顯然，半導體需求一直處於壓力之下，尤其是在內存方面。但你只是說你在正確的地方成長。這是否意味著你供應 - 你正在供應用於鑄造和邏輯的工具製造商？或者你今年將如何在記憶力非常強的情況下成長。

Right. It's pretty tough. And again, we grew mid-teens in 2022. So that growth for 2023 is up low to mid. So it's a substantial decline, but we're still growing. And the reason we're growing the key application areas at our CAMECA business, they're really involved in semiconductor research and development and staying ahead and getting the next generation. And we have some tools that are must-have for the semiconductor market and really strong backlogs and orders are continuing well.

正確的。這很艱難。再一次，我們在 2022 年增長了十幾歲。因此 2023 年的增長從低到中。所以這是一個大幅下降，但我們仍在增長。我們在 CAMECA 業務中發展關鍵應用領域的原因是，他們真正參與了半導體研發並保持領先並獲得下一代。我們有一些半導體市場必備的工具，真正強勁的積壓訂單和訂單正在繼續。

And then the second area is we're in the EUV optics area for using semiconductor fabrication. So the EUV market is kind of separate from the memory market and really strong. So those 2 areas are a good part of our semiconductor business, and they're really strong, and that's why we think we'll still be able to grow low to mid-single digits in an environment where you have some of the headwinds.

然後第二個領域是我們在 EUV 光學領域使用半導體製造。因此，EUV 市場與內存市場有點不同，而且非常強勁。因此，這兩個領域是我們半導體業務的重要組成部分，而且它們非常強大，這就是為什麼我們認為我們仍然能夠在有一些逆風的環境中實現低至中個位數的增長。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Coleman for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給凱文科爾曼，讓他發表任何閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you again, Rocco, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our conference call. As a reminder, a replay of today's webcast can be accessed in the Investors section of ametek.com. Have a great day.

偉大的。再次感謝您，Rocco，並感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。提醒一下，可以在 ametek.com 的投資者部分訪問今天網絡廣播的重播。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家出席今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。