AMC 電影院 (AMC) 2002 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Good morning. My name is Crystal and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AMC Entertainment, Inc. FY 2002 fourth quarter earnings conference call hosted by Peter Brown, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of AMC Entertainment, Inc. Any forward-looking statements contained in this call, which reflects management's best judgment are based on factors currently known and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements included herein as the result of a number of factors. Including among others the Company's ability to enter into various financing programs, the performance of film licensed by the Company, competition, construction delays, the ability to open or close theaters and screens as currently planned. Political, social and economical changes, demographic changes, increases in demand for real estate, changes in real estate, zoning and tax laws and unforeseen changes in the operating department. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer Analysts who would like to ask a question during this time should press star then the number 1 on your telephone keypad and questions will be taken in the order they are received. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Thank you, Mr. Brown, you may begin your conference.

    早安。我叫 Crystal,今天將擔任本次電話會議主持人。此刻,我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 AMC Entertainment, Inc. 2002 財政年度第四季盈餘電話會議;本次會議由 AMC Entertainment, Inc. 董事長兼執行長 Peter Brown 主持。本次電話會議中所包含的任何前瞻性陳述,係反映管理層基於目前所知因素所作之最佳判斷,並涉及風險與不確定性。實際結果可能因多項因素而與前瞻性陳述中所預期者存在重大差異。其中包括但不限於:公司進入各項融資方案的能力、公司所取得授權影片的表現、競爭、施工延誤、依目前規劃開設或關閉影城與影廳的能力。以及政治、社會與經濟變化、人口結構變化、不動產需求增加、不動產變動、分區與稅法變更,以及營運部門中不可預見的變化。為避免背景雜音,所有線路目前均已設為靜音。在講者致詞後,將進行問答環節。欲於此時提問的分析師,請在電話鍵盤上按星號鍵再按數字 1;我們將依收到提問的順序進行。如欲撤回提問,請按井號鍵。謝謝您,Brown 先生,您可以開始本次會議。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Okay, thank you, Crystal, very much. And thank all of you for joining us today. As Crystal said, this is the fourth quarter fiscal 2002, the quarter ended March 28, 2002, earnings conference call for AMC Entertainment. I'm Peter Brown, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On the phone with me today is Philip Singleton, our President and Chief Operating Officer for our largest subsidiary company, American Multi-Cinema; Craig Ramsey, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us on the phone today in his debuting role on these calls is Dick Walsh, who is Chairman of our Film Group, he's relocating to Kansas City from our film department. Dick is also an Executive Vice President with AMC Entertainment, and Dick will be handling the film portion of the presentation. Now, as is typically our custom, I will do a few minutes of highlights on the quarter. Then Phil will update us on our asset quality. Phil will also update us on the status with respect to integrating a couple of acquisitions we basically consummated this last fiscal year and beginning of this fiscal year. And Craig Ramsey will walk us through some highlights on the numbers, and as I said just a moment ago, Dick Walsh will finish up with a presentation on the film product, then we'll have a Q&A. So, as we look at the fiscal year, I have to say it was just a super year for the company, both in terms of our financial performance and importantly the strategic accomplishments on the corporate development front. I hope all of you have a copy of the press release. But as you saw in the press release, we did report record revenues and adjusted EBITDA for our full fiscal year. As we've said in prior conference calls, we like to watch the business on a 12-month rolling 12-month basis, and it's convenient to do that at the end of a fiscal year. But as you saw, revenues at $1.3 billion were up 10% over the prior fiscal year. Adjusted EBITDA 161 million up 20% over the prior fiscal year. Now some other things I want to highlight: Adjusted EBITDA margin improved. We've had an intense focus on improving our adjusted EBITDA margin. And as you saw in the, on an LTM basis, adjusted EBITDA margin was up 110 basis points over the prior fiscal year '02 -- '01, period. Now that margin has improved, shown improvement for six consecutive quarters. In addition, at the end of the fiscal year, on an as-reported basis, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.7 times, down from 3.3 times where we were on an LTM basis at the end of our December quarter. Now, Craig will speak more to this in just a moment. And we'll talk a little bit about some of the pro forma numbers that we spoke with you on the road about when we did our equity offering and how that ratio would compare when you look at the pro forma numbers. In addition, we ended the quarter with a very substantial liquidity position over $600 million of availability. And to refresh your memory, that was $383 million at the end of our December quarter. This was fueled by three successful financings that we completed in fiscal '02. Starting in April of '01, we privately placed $250 million of convertible preferred with Apollo Management out of New York. In January, we led our industry back into the public debt market, with a $175 million bond offering. And in March, we led our industry back into the public equity markets and indeed saw a lot of you I'm sure that are on this conference call this morning with approximately $100 million common stock offering. All total, in our fiscal '02 year, we raised over $500 million of capital. Now we also had, those of you that followed the company, an objective with respect to our free cash flow. And I'm pleased to report that we have indeed achieved the objective of becoming free cash flow positive. We measure our free cash flow by taking what we call an "after-tax cash flow," which is really our net income plus depreciation and amortization cash earnings, if you will, and subtracting from that our net capital expenditures. And on that basis, you would see that our free cash flow was $14 million to the positive column. So, we're very pleased about having achieved that objective that we've had in intense focus on. Last but not least on the strategic front, we substantially completed two acquisitions, representing almost 700 screens. Now I say "substantially completed" because, technically, one of those acquisitions, General Cinemas, closed in the first day of our fiscal year '03. But we view that that acquisition was 99.9% done, if will you, in our fiscal '02 year. So we look at that as fiscal '02 year's work. To refresh your memory, those two acquisitions were General Cinemas, as I just talked about, General Cinemas was the ninth largest theater circuit in the United States, 66 theaters, 621 screens. We bought bought company out of bankruptcy, at a very attractive multiple less than four times. That acquisition will add around $300 million of revenues, $46 million of adjusted EBITDA on a one-way basis, and as I just said a moment ago, it closed technically on the first day of our fiscal '03 year, but we substantially completed in our fiscal '02 year. The other acquisition that we completed was a circuit in New Orleans called Gulf States, five theaters, 68 screens. This was a circuit that was the New Orleans market share leader. That acquisition we expect to add $40 million of revenues, $8 million adjusted EBITDA, and that closed in our fiscal '02 year on March 15, 2002. So with that, I'm now going to turn the program over to Phil Singleton, who will update us on asset quality, as well as the integration acquisition integration status report.

    好的,非常感謝你,Crystal,真的非常感謝。也感謝各位今天加入我們。如 Crystal 所說,這是 AMC Entertainment2002 會計年度第四季(截至 2002 年 3 月 28 日止)的財報電話會議。我是 Peter Brown,董事長兼執行長。今天與我同線的有 Philip Singleton,我們最大子公司 American Multi-Cinema 的總裁兼營運長;Craig Ramsey,我們的財務長。另外,今天也有 Dick Walsh 首次在這些電話會議中亮相,他是我們影業事業群的董事長,正從我們的影業部門調任至堪薩斯市。Dick 同時也是 AMC Entertainment 的執行副總裁,他將負責簡報中的影片部分。現在,依照我們一貫的慣例,我會先用幾分鐘重點回顧本季。接著 Phil 會向我們更新資產品質。Phil 也會更新我們在整合幾項收購案方面的進度,這些收購案基本上是在上一個會計年度以及本會計年度初完成交割。然後 Craig Ramsey 會帶我們看一些數字上的重點;而如我剛才所說,Dick Walsh 會以影片產品的簡報作結,之後我們會進行問答。回顧整個會計年度,我必須說這對公司而言是非常出色的一年,不論是在財務表現方面,或更重要的是在公司發展面向的策略性成果。我希望各位都已拿到新聞稿。如各位在新聞稿中所見,我們在整個會計年度的營收與調整後 EBITDA 都創下新高。如同我們在先前的電話會議中所說,我們喜歡以 12 個月滾動(LTM)的方式觀察業務,而在會計年度結束時這樣做很方便。如各位所見,營收達 13 億美元,較前一會計年度成長 10%。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元,較前一會計年度成長 20%。另外我還想強調幾點:調整後 EBITDA 利潤率有所改善。我們一直高度聚焦於提升調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。如各位所見,以 LTM 計算,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率較前一會計年度('02--'01)期間提升了 110 個基點。而且該利潤率已連續六個季度呈現改善。此外,在會計年度末,以公告口徑計算,我們的淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.7 倍,低於我們在 12 月季度末以 LTM 計算的 3.3 倍。Craig 稍後會就此再多談一些。我們也會談到一些我們在路演、進行股權發行時與各位討論過的備考(pro forma)數字,以及在看備考數字時該比率會如何比較。另外,我們在本季末的流動性部位非常充裕,可動用額度超過 6 億美元。提醒各位,在 12 月季度末時該數字是 3.83 億美元。這主要來自我們在 2002 會計年度完成的三項成功融資。從 2001 年 4 月開始,我們向紐約的 Apollo Management 私募發行 2.5 億美元可轉換特別股。1 月,我們帶領本產業重返公開債券市場,發行 1.75 億美元債券。3 月,我們帶領本產業重返公開股權市場,並且確實看到許多各位(我相信今天早上也在線上)參與了約 1 億美元的普通股發行。合計而言,在 2002 會計年度,我們募集了超過 5 億美元的資本。此外,對於關注本公司的各位,我們也有一項關於自由現金流的目標。我很高興報告,我們確實已達成自由現金流轉正的目標。我們衡量自由現金流的方法,是以我們所稱的「稅後現金流」為基礎,也就是淨利加上折舊與攤銷等現金收益(如果你願意這麼說),再扣除淨資本支出。以此基礎,你會看到我們的自由現金流為正 1,400 萬美元。因此,我們對於達成這項一直高度聚焦的目標感到非常滿意。最後但同樣重要的是在策略面,我們大致完成了兩項收購,合計接近 700 個銀幕。我之所以說「大致完成」,是因為從技術上來說,其中一項收購案 General Cinemas 是在我們 2003 會計年度的第一天完成交割。但我們認為該收購在 2002 會計年度內已完成 99.9%,如果你願意這麼說。因此我們把它視為 2002 會計年度的成果。提醒各位,這兩項收購分別是我剛才提到的 General Cinemas。General Cinemas 是美國第九大戲院連鎖,擁有 66 家戲院、621 個銀幕。我們以非常具吸引力的倍數(低於 4 倍)從破產程序中收購該公司。該收購將在單向(one-way)基礎上增加約 3 億美元營收、4,600 萬美元調整後 EBITDA;而如我剛才所說,它在技術上於 2003 會計年度第一天完成交割,但在 2002 會計年度已大致完成。另一項我們完成的收購,是紐奧良的一個院線,名為 Gulf States,擁有 5 家戲院、68 個銀幕。該院線是紐奧良市場的市占領導者。我們預期該收購將增加 4,000 萬美元營收、800 萬美元調整後 EBITDA,並已於 2002 年 3 月 15 日在我們 2002 會計年度內完成交割。那麼接下來,我將把流程交給 Phil Singleton,他將更新資產品質,以及收購整合的整合進度報告。

  • PHILIP SINGLETON

    PHILIP SINGLETON

  • Thanks, Peter. When you look at AMC the first thing that you'll see is we have a leading high-quality asset base that is second to no one else in the market. LTM for the period ending 3/28 of this year, calendar '02, we counted fiscal year-end we counted 3520 screens and 247 locations. The slide you're looking at shows the AMC screen portfolio segmented into three types of theaters: mega-plexes, something we call "continuing multi-plexes," and disposition multi-plexes. The definition of a mega-plex is generally a stadium-seated theater -- stadium seating in a theatre that's built since 1995. It's usually 14 or more screens, and but stadium seating is really the discriminator or defining factor. A continuing multi-plex in our definition is a slope floor theatre that has a protected real estate situation that makes it a viable economic unit for several years to come. At least three to five, if not more. A disposition multi-plexed are theaters that we've targeted for disposition or the next three years. An example of a continuing multi-plex would be our Century City in Los Angeles, in the heart of Century City our Phipps Plaza in the Phipps Plaza Shopping Center in the heart of Buckhead in Atlanta, our Kabuki in Japan Town in San Francisco, or Marco in Philadelphia. As you can see on the slide, the mega-plexes in green and the continuing multi-plexes in blue account for 92% of our overall screen count. And in that group is what I call "keepers," they're going to be high-performance theaters that will continue to be very viable and high-quality for years to come. Disposition multi-plexes represent only 8% of our remaining surface screen count, and it's important to note that even as a group 5.2 million, they are all cash-flow positive. AMC's high-quality asset base shows up in the market place as well, as you can see on this slide. Based on the individual theater box office results for the LTM period through March of '02 this year, calendar '02, as tracked by Entertainment Data, Inc., the AMC circuit had 52% of the top 50 theaters in North America, and as you can see, no other competitor, either regionally or nationally, comes anyway near having the high number of the industry's top performing theaters. Lowe's Cineplex even with their New York locations only had 6 on this chart. In fact, Edwards is now part of the Regal Group and Century National Amusement and Movie Call are regional players that have done a little better job in situating their locations within the regions they're located. I think this is probably my favorite slide. And I know my partner Dick Walsh who has joined us this time loves this slide also. It's a very high number of battleships in the AMC armada and he wants a lot more. I think the bottom line summary of this slide and the previous slide is that more high-quality assets in your portfolio means more high-volume, high-performance theaters in the marketplace as well, and right now AMC's asset quality is the best in the business. Now I'd like to report on integration status of the Gulf States and General Cinema acquisitions. We took possession of Gulf States on 3/15 of this calendar year, '02, and General Cinema on 3/29/02. The integration timeline for Gulf States was planned to be about two weeks, and for General Cinema for about four. Our strategy target of having all acquisition theaters totally assimilated and fully contributing to our '03 business plan by the release of the first summer anchor film "Spiderman" on May 3rd. And it was a fairly ambitious time line, it was practical in our estimation. As it pro logged, to cut over, I should tell you that we were fortunate to have very cooperative home office teams in the acquisitions circuits both in Boston and New Orleans who nicely facilitated the acquisitions. And at this point, all but roughly about 15 to 20 people in General Cinemas Boston have been released with attractive yet fair holdover bonus and severance payment. By the end of June, that count should be down to about half dozen personnel, and by the end of September, we anticipate everyone will be gone and also should be out of the office leased to them by then. The home office staff disposition at Gulf States was handled by the owner, was not an issue for us. Good planning preparation and hundreds of hours of our transition teams invested in the effort resulted really in a seamless cutover of both circuits on schedule and on budget. Internally, that included areas such as our point of sales system, which we were fortunate in General Cinema's case they had the same Radiant System, the same point-of-sale system computers that we had. Accounting our marketing group including our frequency program, Movie Watcher, our Internet ticketing piece , payroll, MIS, virtually all the other corporate systems, it was a pretty smooth cutover due to the planning and time involved in figuring it out. Externally, the guests noticed virtually nothing by the end of the second weekend. Our film suppliers also complimented us on how smooth and coordinated the cutover was, and in fact our co-op agreements, which were to our advantage, actually began on the first week of the cutover, which was a good deal for us. And there were virtually no vendors and -- glitches and switching to the vendors and suppliers in both, in all the markets that the acquisition theaters are located. Likewise, our re-branding is on schedule. The newspaper advertising along with the cutover of General Cinema's Credits, which is their frequency program, to our frequency program, which is the AMC Movie Watcher program, was accomplished actually by the end of the first week. Conversion of General Cinema theaters to the AMC admission and concession price model, which included changing all internal and box office concession signs, was completed by 5 -- by May 3. And I might add with the neutral or positive impact on both average ticket price and concession per head in every location. Staff and management changed over our uniform suppliers actually to keep up with us was essentially completed by the end of April. Exterior resigning for Gulf States will be completed actually by tomorrow, on May 17. And General Cinema should be done by the middle of June, 6/15. And changeable internal collateral signing has basically been resigned in both circuits and fixed internal signings should be done by the end of July. Lastly, and probably most importantly, the AMC cultural integration is proceeding nicely. We launched transition teams into virtually every acquisition market. In fact, we inserted one key AMC management person in every Gulf States and every General Cinema theatre for the first three weeks of possession. An assembly of all the managing directors of all AMC locations and acquisition theaters followed the fourth week in April in Kansas City, and it was a high-level meeting that combined the role with the new AMC mission statement and operating fundamentals with a focused orientation program for our newly acquired theater teams. That meeting in the North America [INAUDIBLE] as we called it was very well received by all of our former Gulf States and General Cinema managers, and it moved the meter dramatically in my estimation in terms of rapidly integrating these folks into the AMC family. The second transition team is actually hitting the ground this week for a two week tour in all the acquisition markets to backstop any build-up of operating pressure due to the opening of "Star Wars, Episode Two" which actually opens officially today. Actually, last night, midnight shows were launched. Finally, we have an AMC Basic Training Road Show underway, and it began last week and will run through the end of June that reinforces to our new management team again, our new mission statement, operating fundamentals and guest service policy. So to report to you in summary, our acquisition integration status, I'm pleased to report, is on schedule. It's under budget in terms of projected transitional costs, and with essentially -- within five weeks of taking possession, we have all former Gulf States and General Cinema acquisition theaters fully assimilated and contributing to our opening business plan as we launch into one of the most attractive film product Summer seasons in recent years. With that summary, I'll turn it over to Craig for review of the industry background.

    謝謝你,Peter。當你看AMC時,你首先會看到的是,我們擁有領先且高品質的資產基礎,在市場上無人能出其右。以截至今年3/28的最近十二個月(LTM)期間、亦即2002曆年計,我們統計共有3520個銀幕與247個據點。你正在看的這張投影片顯示AMC的銀幕組合,並分成三種類型的影城:mega-plexes、我們稱為「持續型multi-plexes」以及處分型multi-plexes。mega-plex的一般定義是具階梯式座位的影城——也就是1995年以後興建、採階梯式座位的影城。通常有14個或以上的銀幕,但階梯式座位才是真正的區隔或定義因素。依我們的定義,持續型multi-plex是坡地式地板的影城,其不動產條件受到保護,使其在未來數年仍是可行的經濟單位。至少三到五年,甚至更久。處分型multi-plex是我們鎖定在未來三年內進行處分的影城。持續型multi-plex的例子包括我們位於洛杉磯Century City核心地帶的Century City,位於亞特蘭大Buckhead核心、Phipps Plaza購物中心內的Phipps Plaza,位於舊金山日本城的Kabuki,或位於費城的Marco。如投影片所示,綠色的mega-plex與藍色的持續型multi-plex合計占我們整體銀幕數的92%。而在這一組裡,有我所稱的「保留資產(keepers)」;它們將是高績效影城,在未來多年仍將保持高度可行性與高品質。處分型multi-plex僅占我們剩餘銀幕數的8%,而且重要的是要注意,即使作為一個整體(520萬),它們全部都是現金流為正。AMC的高品質資產基礎也同樣反映在市場上,如你在這張投影片所見。根據Entertainment Data, Inc.追蹤的2002曆年截至今年3月的LTM期間各影城票房表現,AMC院線在北美前50名影城中占了52%,而如你所見,沒有任何其他競爭者,不論區域性或全國性,都遠遠無法接近擁有如此多的業界頂尖表現影城。Lowe's Cineplex即使加上其紐約據點,在這張圖上也只有6家。事實上,Edwards現在已是Regal Group的一部分,而Century National Amusement與Movie Call是區域性業者,在其所在區域內選址方面做得稍微更好一些。我想這大概是我最喜歡的一張投影片。我也知道這次加入我們的夥伴Dick Walsh也很喜歡這張投影片。AMC艦隊裡有非常多的戰艦,而他還想要更多。我認為這張投影片與前一張投影片的重點總結是:你的資產組合中高品質資產越多,市場上就會有更多高流量、高績效的影城;而目前AMC的資產品質是業界最佳。接下來我想報告Gulf States與General Cinema收購案的整合進度。我們在2002曆年3/15接管GulfStates,並在3/29/02接管GeneralCinema。Gulf States的整合時程原本規劃約兩週,而GeneralCinema約四週。我們的策略目標是讓所有收購影城在第一部暑期主打片《蜘蛛人》於5月3日上映前,完全同化並全面貢獻於我們的2003年營運計畫。這是一個相當積極的時程,但在我們評估下是可行的。在切換之前,我應該說,我們很幸運,收購院線在波士頓與紐奧良的總部團隊都非常配合,並順利促成了收購。目前,General Cinemas波士頓總部除約15到20人外,其餘人員都已離職,並獲得具吸引力但公平的留任獎金與資遣費。到6月底,該人數應降至約半打人員;而到9月底,我們預期所有人都將離開,並且也應該在那之前搬離當時租用給他們的辦公室。Gulf States的總部人員處置由原業主處理,對我們而言不是問題。良好的規劃準備,以及我們轉換團隊投入的數百小時努力,確實使兩個院線都能在時程內、在預算內無縫切換。在內部方面,包含例如我們的銷售點系統(POS);我們很幸運,在GeneralCinema的案例中,他們使用與我們相同的Radiant系統、相同的POS電腦。會計、行銷團隊(包括我們的會員頻率計畫MovieWatcher)、網路售票模組、薪資、MIS,幾乎所有其他企業系統,都因為前期規劃與投入時間而切換得相當順利。在外部方面,到第二個週末結束時,顧客幾乎沒有注意到任何變化。我們的片商供應商也稱讚切換過程非常順暢且協調一致;事實上,我們的聯合促銷(co-op)協議對我們有利,並且實際上在切換的第一週就開始生效,這對我們是一筆好交易。而在供應商方面幾乎沒有——故障,並且在兩個院線、在所有收購影城所在的市場中,切換供應商與供應來源也幾乎沒有問題。同樣地,我們的品牌重塑也按計畫進行。報紙廣告,以及將General Cinema的Credits(其會員頻率計畫)切換到我們的會員頻率計畫——也就是AMC Movie Watcher計畫——實際上在第一週末就完成。將General Cinema影城轉換為AMC的票價與餐飲價格模式(包括更換所有內部與售票處餐飲標示)已於5——於5月3日前完成。我還要補充,這對各據點的平均票價與人均餐飲消費皆呈中性或正面影響。員工與管理層也更換了我們的制服供應商;供應商為了跟上我們的進度,實際上在4月底前就基本完成。GulfStates的外部招牌更換將在明天、5月17日完成。而General Cinema則應在6月中旬、6/15前完成。可更換的內部宣傳物料招牌在兩個院線基本上都已完成更換,固定式內部招牌則應在7月底前完成。最後,也是可能最重要的一點,AMC的企業文化整合進展良好。我們在幾乎每一個收購市場都派駐了轉換團隊。事實上,在接管後的前三週,我們在每一家Gulf States與每一家General Cinema影城都安排了一位關鍵的AMC管理人員進駐。4月第四週在堪薩斯市召開了所有AMC據點與收購影城的營運總監會議;這是一場高層會議,結合了新的AMC使命宣言與營運基本功,並為新併入的影城團隊提供聚焦的導向訓練課程。我們稱之為北美[INAUDIBLE]的那場會議,獲得所有前GulfStates與General Cinema經理人的高度肯定;在我看來,這在快速將這些夥伴整合進AMC大家庭方面,大幅推進了進度。第二支轉換團隊本週也已展開,將在所有收購市場進行為期兩週的巡迴,以支援因《星際大戰:第二部曲》上映而可能帶來的營運壓力上升;該片其實今天正式上映。其實昨晚已推出午夜場。最後,我們正在進行AMC基礎訓練巡迴(Basic Training Road Show),並已於上週開始,將持續到6月底;該計畫再次強化我們新管理團隊對新使命宣言、營運基本功與顧客服務政策的理解。因此,總結向各位報告,我們的收購整合進度,我很高興地報告,按計畫進行。就預估的過渡成本而言,實際支出低於預算;並且在接管後約五週內,我們已讓所有前GulfStates與General Cinema收購影城完全同化,並在我們迎接近年來最具吸引力的暑期片單之一之際,開始全面貢獻於我們的開局營運計畫。以上總結,我將交給Craig,請他回顧產業背景。

  • CRAIG RAMSEY

    CRAIG RAMSEY

  • Thanks, Phil. Before we discuss AMC's financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year, I'd like to provide some industry statistics for the fourth quarter that I think will serve as a good backdrop to our next discussion. As you see on the slide, as we track the box office in North America, admissions revenues were up 16% over the fourth quarter of last year. Of that 16%, we estimate that the attendance increase accounted for 11%. Increasing from about 337 million last year to approximately 374 million this year. The balance of the box office increase would then have been accounted for by increases in average ticket prices, which we estimate were up from about $5.56 last year to $5.79 this year, or 5%. As we look at the performance of the large pictures or those that are grossing or expected to gross over $100 million, you see again it was up in comparison to the same quarter last year. Three films released during the current quarter of this year expected to exceed $100 million in box office and contributed a total of $457 million, compared to three last year that contributed about $415 million, and just by reference, the current fiscal year films would be "Ice Age", "A Beautiful Mind", and "Blackhawk Down". It's interesting to note that while the over $100 million films did produce more box office compared to the same quarter last year, really the strength of the quarter's box office performance came from a very full release slate of pictures. 37 films were wide released during the fourth quarter of this year, versus 31 films last year. So let's now look at AMC's results for the fourth quarter and as we do, I'd like to reference back to those highlights that Peter gave you. First of all, record revenues and adjusted EBITDA up 41% in the quarter. Also an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin. Keep in mind that as we look at these numbers, our acquisition of General Cinema was finalized on March 29th, and that would be the first day of our new fiscal year. So the numbers on the slide are not pro forma for the acquisition, but they are the numbers that we will report in our annual report on our SEC filing. Total revenues, as you can see, are up $49 million, or up 17% over the same quarter last year. Total revenue performance was driven primarily by increases in attendance, which was up 12% from 36.3 million last year to about 40.5 million for the current quarter. Our 17% comp on revenues and 12% comp on attendance both out performed the industry comps of 16% on revenues and 11% on attendance, respectively. Adjusted ebitda increased $11 million, or 41% over the same quarter last year. The momentum of the box office certainly played a role in these results. While not shown on the slide, as we noted earlier, our margin percentage increased pretty substantially over the prior year, 9.3% in the fourth quarter of last year to 11.2% in the fourth quarter of the current year. Theater closure activity has slowed, with only 24 screens coming offline during the quarter. And most of these screens came offline at their lease expirations, so there was no theater closure cost incurred during the quarter. You see net cap of $30 million, that reflects the slightly higher increase in our number of screens that were added during the quarter, compared to last year. Average screens operated were also up slightly, reflecting these new openings. As we turn to the fourth quarter results, again, taking you back -- or excuse me, to the full fiscal year results, again, taking you back to those key highlights, record revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the full fiscal year, and again on a full fiscal-year basis and improvement in our adjusted EBITDA margin. Total revenues increased $126 million or 10% over the same quarter -- or over the full year last year, excuse me. Total revenue performance again was driven by increases in attendance, reflecting the strong box office, and by increases in total revenue per head, which really reflects the pricing initiatives. Attendance increased from 151 million in fiscal '01 to 159 million in fiscal '02, an increase of 5%. Adjusted EBITDA up 20% for the full fiscal year. Adjusted EBITDA margin, again, of about 100 bases points to 12% for the current fiscal year. Our aggressive closure program over the prior years has really left us with a very manageable theater disposition program. Consequently, screens are coming off at lease expiration. And you can see here that we disposed of 86 screens during the current fiscal year versus about 250 last year. Net cap-x was $77 million for the full fiscal year, very much in line with our expectations for the year and down pretty substantially from last year, which was $101 million for the full year last year. In line with our plan for the year, we added about 214 -- we added 214 screens, versus 115 in the prior year. Average screens operated were down for the full fiscal year, indicating that our total revenue and adjusted EBITDA results were not driven by additional screens operated during the year. As we noted earlier, but it's not shown on this slide, we did produce free cash-flow positive results. And if you've listened to our conference calls over the last several quarters, you'll remember this has one of our stated objectives. Fiscal '02 results will show free cash flow of $14 million, which is a substantial improvement over the prior year. Turn now to look at our capitalization and liquidity. And again, think back to those highlights that we gave you at the beginning of the program. Lower leverage and increased liquidity are really the key points here. Our acquisition of General Cinema was closed in the first ever fiscal year. However, we are showing both the actual capitalization and pro forma capitalization on this slide, so it's the pro forma numbers include the impacts of the GC acquisition. As a result of the financing transactions that we conducted in fiscal '02, where we raised a total of $533 million of capital, both debt and equity, our balance sheet has substantially strengthened. Those financings, combined with our improved operating results, have also improved our overall credit profile. At fiscal year-end, our balance sheet reflects strong liquidity with $219 million of cash, and this combined with the full availability of our $425 million revolving credit facility, gives us ample flexibility to continue to execute our business plan, including additional acquisition and consolidation. At quarter end, we had CIP cap-x of $37 million. Now, those are dollars that are invested in theaters that have not yet opened, really represent the cash equivalent and we'll use that number here in a minute as we look at leverage. Total debt was $653 million, comprised of our senior sub-debt since there were no borrowings on our revolving credit facility. Net debt of $434 million, is down from about $496 million at the end of the last quarter. And that reflects the strong cash flows for the quarter. At quarter end, our leverage was 2.7 times, compared to the requirement under our credit agreement of 5.5 times. The ratio is further reduced if we adjust for the CIP cap-x. As I noted earlier, the leverage ratio drops to 2.5 times. On a pro forma basis, our total debt increases to $726 million, from the cash and additional subdebt that we used in the GC acquisition. However, because of the low multiple that we paid on this transaction and our use of equity to fund part of the acquisition price, our leverage is further reduced on a pro forma basis to 2.4 times. At this point, I'd like to provide some guidance on our fiscal '03 year, which will include the full year impact of the General Cinema and Gulf States acquisitions. First of all, the first three statistics on this slide relate to the industry that is the North American Box Office. And as you can see, we believe that the Box Office has potential to achieve between 6 and 8% growth over our next fiscal year. I do want you to keep in mind that we are looking at the period from April 2002 to March of 2003, much has been written and talked about the "calendar '02" Box Office, which of course our fiscal year would include nine months of "calendar '02." But very little is known about the pictures that will be released in our fourth fiscal quarter, that is, the period of January '03 through March of '03. Having said that, however, we still do believe that the box office will be in that 6 to 8% range. Of the 6 to 8%, we can break that down into both pricing and attendance, and we believe average ticket prices for the industry as a whole will average about a 5% increase over last year. And there could be attendance growth, real growth, between 1 and 3%. After considering these estimates for the overall Box Office, we believe that AMC adjusted EBITDA will range between 210 to 225 million over the next fiscal year. And we also show we're currently planning net cap-x of $44 million, which is net of a $44 million plan sale lease-back transaction. So, with that I'd like to turn the program over to Dick Walsh, who will preview the upcoming film product.

    謝謝你,Phil。在我們討論 AMC 的第四季及整個會計年度的財務結果之前,我想先提供一些我認為可作為我們接下來討論良好背景的第四季產業統計數據。如投影片所示,當我們追蹤北美票房時,入場收入較去年第四季成長了 16%。在這 16% 中,我們估計出席人次的增加貢獻了 11%。從去年的約 3.37 億人次增加到今年約 3.74 億人次。其餘的票房成長則可歸因於平均票價上升;我們估計平均票價由去年的約5.56 美元上升至今年的 5.79 美元,約成長 5%。再看大片(亦即票房達到或預期將達到1 億美元以上的影片)的表現,你會再次看到,相較去年同季也有所上升。今年本季上映、預期票房將超過 1 億美元的三部影片,合計貢獻了 4.57 億美元,對比去年三部影片合計約 4.15 億美元;另外僅供參考,本會計年度的影片為《冰原歷險記》、《美麗境界》以及《黑鷹計畫》。值得注意的是,雖然票房超過 1 億美元的影片相較去年同季確實帶來更多票房,但本季票房表現的真正強勁動能,來自於非常充實的影片上映檔期。今年第四季共有 37 部影片大規模上映,去年則為 31 部。接下來我們來看 AMC 的第四季結果;在此同時,我想回頭引用 Peter 先前提供給各位的重點。首先,本季營收創新高,且調整後 EBITDA 成長 41%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率也有所改善。請記住,當我們看這些數字時,我們對 General Cinema 的收購已於 3 月 29 日完成,那一天也是我們新會計年度的第一天。因此,投影片上的數字並非針對該收購的備考(pro forma)數字,而是我們將在向 SEC 申報的年報中報告的數字。如各位所見,總營收增加了 4,900 萬美元,較去年同季成長 17%。總營收表現主要由出席人次增加所帶動,出席人次由去年的 3,630 萬人次增加 12%,至本季約 4,050 萬人次。我們營收 17% 的同店成長與出席人次 12% 的同店成長,分別優於產業的 16% 營收同店成長與 11% 出席人次同店成長。調整後 EBITDA 增加 1,100 萬美元,較去年同季成長 41%。票房的動能無疑在這些結果中扮演了角色。雖然投影片未顯示,但如我們先前提到,我們的利潤率百分比較前一年大幅提升,從去年第四季的 9.3% 提升至本會計年度第四季的 11.2%。影城關閉活動已放緩,本季僅有 24 個銀幕停止營運。且這些銀幕多是在租約到期時停止營運,因此本季未產生影城關閉成本。你會看到淨資本支出(net cap-x)為 3,000 萬美元,反映出本季新增銀幕數較去年略高。平均營運銀幕數也略為上升,反映這些新開幕據點。接著看第四季結果——或者更正一下,看整個會計年度結果——同樣回到那些關鍵重點:整個會計年度營收與調整後 EBITDA 創新高,並且在全年基礎上,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率也有所改善。總營收增加 1.26 億美元,較去年全年成長 10%——更正,是較去年全年成長。總營收表現同樣由出席人次增加所帶動,反映強勁票房;同時也受每人平均總營收增加所推動,而這主要反映定價措施。出席人次由 2001 會計年度的 1.51 億人次增加至 2002 會計年度的 1.59 億人次,成長 5%。全年調整後 EBITDA 成長 20%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率同樣提升,約增加 100 個基點,至本會計年度的 12%。我們過去幾年的積極關閉計畫,確實使我們目前的影城處置計畫變得非常可控。因此,銀幕多在租約到期時退出。你可以看到,本會計年度我們處置了 86 個銀幕,而去年約為 250 個。全年淨資本支出為 7,700 萬美元,與我們對年度的預期非常一致,且較去年全年 1.01 億美元大幅下降。依照我們的年度計畫,我們新增約 214——我們新增了 214 個銀幕,而前一年為 115 個。全年平均營運銀幕數下降,顯示我們的總營收與調整後 EBITDA 結果並非由年度內新增營運銀幕所驅動。如先前所述(但本投影片未顯示),我們也產生了自由現金流為正的結果。如果你過去幾季有收聽我們的電話會議,你會記得這一直是我們所宣示的目標之一。2002 會計年度結果將顯示自由現金流為 1,400 萬美元,較前一年有顯著改善。接下來看我們的資本結構與流動性。同樣回想我們在節目一開始提供的重點:降低槓桿與提升流動性是此處的關鍵。我們對 General Cinema 的收購在本會計年度完成交割。不過,本投影片同時呈現實際資本結構與備考(pro forma)資本結構,因此備考數字包含 GC 收購的影響。由於我們在 2002 會計年度進行的融資交易(合計籌得 5.33 億美元資金,包含債務與股權),我們的資產負債表已大幅強化。這些融資,加上我們改善的營運結果,也提升了我們整體的信用概況。在會計年度期末,我們的資產負債表反映出強勁流動性,現金為 2.19 億美元;再加上我們 4.25 億美元循環信用額度的全額可用性,使我們有充足彈性持續執行營運計畫,包括進一步的收購與整併。在季末,我們的在建工程資本支出(CIP cap-x)為 3,700 萬美元。這些資金投資於尚未開幕的影城,基本上代表現金等價物;我們稍後在檢視槓桿時會使用這個數字。總負債為 6.53 億美元,由於循環信用額度沒有借款,因此全部由我們的優先次順位債務(senior sub-debt)構成。淨負債為 4.34 億美元,較上一季末約 4.96 億美元下降。這反映本季強勁的現金流。季末我們的槓桿倍數為 2.7 倍,對比我們信貸協議要求的 5.5 倍。若再就 CIP cap-x 進行調整,該比率會進一步降低。如我先前所述,槓桿比率降至 2.5 倍。以備考基礎計算,我們的總負債因在 GC 收購中使用的現金與額外次順位債務而增加至 7.26 億美元。然而,由於我們在此交易支付的倍數偏低,且以股權資金支付部分收購價款,我們的槓桿在備考基礎上進一步降低至 2.4 倍。接下來,我想就我們 2003 會計年度提供一些指引,其中將包含 General Cinema 與 Gulf States 收購的全年影響。首先,本投影片前三項統計與產業(北美票房)相關。如各位所見,我們認為票房在下一個會計年度有機會達到 6% 至 8% 的成長。我確實希望各位記住,我們觀察的期間是 2002 年 4 月到 2003 年 3 月;外界對「2002 年曆年」票房已有大量報導與討論,而我們的會計年度當然會包含其中九個月的「2002 年曆年」。但對於將在我們第四會計季度上映的影片所知甚少,也就是 2003 年 1 月到 2003 年 3 月的期間。儘管如此,我們仍相信票房將落在 6% 至 8% 的區間。在這 6% 至 8% 中,我們可拆分為定價與出席人次兩部分;我們認為整體產業的平均票價將較去年平均上升約 5%。而出席人次可能有 1% 到 3% 的實質成長。在考量上述對整體票房的估計後,我們認為 AMC 的調整後 EBITDA 在下一個會計年度將介於 2.10 億至 2.25 億美元。我們也顯示目前規劃的淨資本支出為 4,400 萬美元,該數字已扣除一項 4,400 萬美元的計畫性售後回租交易(sale lease-back)。因此,接下來我想把節目交給 Dick Walsh,請他預覽即將上映的影片產品。

  • DICK WALSH

    DICK WALSH

  • Thank you, Craig. There are three characteristics that describe this year's slate of Summer product. Because of what is already in the marketplace, the industry is experienced a solid and early start to Summer. There are strong anchor films, or sequels, if you will, that have a built-in audience and as important there is an attractive slate of other key films that will have huge want-to-see due to the popularity of the actors in those films. This year, Summer started early on April 19th with the release of Universal's "Scorpion King". This is an example of a growing trend by the studios to release high-profile product throughout the year, and not just in Summer or the November-December period. "Scorpion King"'s $36 million dollar opening was the biggest ever in April. That was followed up two weeks later, on May 3rd, with "Spiderman"'s opening, weekend gross of $114 million. By far the biggest ever. It's also the fastest to get to $200 million cumulative gross, taking only nine days. Having dropped only 37% from its record-breaking opening weekend, there's no telling where this picture could end up. About nine or 10 hours ago, depending on what time zone you're in, "Star Wars Two" opened to sellout crowds at 12. We have 116 units reporting in with a gross of $1.2 million for those midnight shows. An average of just over $10,000 per location. Obviously, that picture is off to a terrific start. The rest of the Summer looks very solid. With a slate of sequels and other high-profile product entering the marketplace. On 5/31, "Sum of All Fears", starring Ben Affleck as Jack Ryan based on the Tom Clancy novel. On 6/7, "Bad Company" with Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock, produced by Jerry Bruckheimer. On 6/7 "Divine Secrets of the Yaya Sisterhood", starring Sandra Bullock and Ashley Judd, based on the best selling book by Rebecca Wells. On 6/14, "Scooby Doo", live action based on the animated TV show. On 6/21, "Leo and Stitch", which is Disney's Summer animated movie. Also on 6/21, "Minority Report", starring Tom Cruise and directed by Steven Spielberg. Then as we head into the July 4th weekend, the traditional start of the back half of the summer, on 6/28, "Mr. D", starring Adam Sandler and Winona Ryder. On 7/3, "Men in Black 2" opens. In 1999, the original grossed $250 million. On 7/12, "Road to Perdition", Tom Hanks and Paul Newman directed by Academy Award winning Sam Mende. 7/14, "Stuart Little Two", two years ago the first one grossed $140 million. On 7/19, "K-19: The Widowmaker," starring Harrison Ford, a true story of a Russian nuclear sub during the height of the cold war. On 7/26, "Austin Powers 3". The last one grossed $205 million in 1999. "Signs" opens on August 2nd, starring Mel Gibson, written and directed by M. Night Shamalan. On 8/7, "Spy Kids 2". Last Spring, this was a surprise picture for everybody in the industry, and it went on to gross $112 million -- the original. And then in on 8/9, "Triple X," last year's big breakout action star, Vin Diesel, stars in this picture. This time he's an extreme sports athlete turned secret agent. With these highly commercial titles flooding the lucrative Summer marketplace, combined with the fast start the industry is already off to, there is a high likelihood that this could be the highest grossing Summer of all time for the industry. With that, I'll turn it back to Peter.

    謝謝你,Craig。今年暑期檔的產品片單有三個特徵。由於市場上既有的供給,整個產業在暑期檔迎來了穩健且提早的開局。有強勢的主力影片,或你可以說是續集,這些影片自帶觀眾基礎;同樣重要的是,還有一批其他關鍵影片的片單也很吸引人,因為片中演員的高人氣,將帶來巨大的「想看」需求。今年暑期檔在4月19日就提早開始,環球影業的《魔蠍大帝》上映。這是片商日益增長的一個趨勢例子:全年推出高知名度的產品,而不僅僅集中在暑期或11月至12月期間。《魔蠍大帝》首週末開片票房3,600萬美元,創下4月史上最高紀錄。兩週後的5月3日,《蜘蛛人》開片,首週末票房達1.14億美元。這是迄今為止最大的開片成績。它也是最快達到累計2億美元票房的影片,只用了九天。在破紀錄的開片週末之後,票房僅下滑37%,這部片最終能走到哪裡,還很難說。大約九到十個小時前,取決於你所在的時區,《星際大戰2》在午夜12點開映,場場爆滿。目前有116個單位回報,午夜場總票房為120萬美元。平均每個地點略高於1萬美元。顯然,這部片開局非常出色。暑期檔其餘檔期看起來也很穩健。一系列續集與其他高知名度產品將陸續進入市場。5/31上映《恐懼的總和》,由班・艾佛列克飾演傑克・萊恩,改編自湯姆・克蘭西的小說。6/7上映《Bad Company》,由安東尼・霍普金斯與克里斯・洛克主演,傑瑞・布洛克海默製作。6/7還有《雅雅姐妹會的神聖秘密》,由珊卓・布拉克與艾希莉・賈德主演,改編自麗貝卡・威爾斯的暢銷書。6/14上映《史酷比》,真人版,改編自動畫電視影集。6/21上映《Leo and Stitch》,這是迪士尼暑期檔的動畫電影。同樣在6/21,《關鍵報告》上映,由湯姆・克魯斯主演,史蒂芬・史匹柏執導。接著進入7月4日週末,也就是傳統上暑期檔後半段的開始;6/28上映《Mr. D》,由亞當・山德勒與薇諾娜・瑞德主演。7/3《MIB星際戰警2》上映。1999年,第一集票房達2.5億美元。7/12上映《毀滅之路》,湯姆・漢克斯與保羅・紐曼主演,由奧斯卡得主山姆・曼德斯執導。7/14《精靈鼠小弟2》上映;兩年前第一集票房為1.4億美元。7/19上映《K-19:寡婦製造者》,由哈里遜・福特主演,講述冷戰高峰期一艘俄羅斯核子潛艇的真實故事。7/26上映《王牌大賤諜3》。上一集在1999年的票房為2.05億美元。《靈異象限》於8月2日上映,由梅爾・吉勃遜主演,M. Night Shamalan編劇並執導。8/7上映《小鬼神偷2》。去年春天,第一集對業界所有人而言都是一部驚喜之作,最終票房達1.12億美元——指的是第一集。接著8/9上映《限制級戰警》,去年大爆發的動作新星馮・迪索主演;這次他飾演一位極限運動選手轉任祕密特工。這些高度商業化的片名大量湧入獲利豐厚的暑期市場,再加上產業目前已經有的快速開局,很有可能使今年成為業界史上票房最高的暑期檔。說到這裡,我把時間交回給Peter。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Okay. I think, Crystal, we're ready for the Q&A portion of the program.

    好的。我想,Crystal,我們已經準備好進入本次節目的問答環節了。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, please press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

    此刻,我想提醒各位,若要提問,請在電話鍵盤上按星號鍵,然後按數字1。我們將稍作停頓,以彙整問答名單。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Your first question comes from Tim Wallace from Bank of America. Mr. Wallace, your line is open.

    第一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的Tim Wallace。Wallace先生,您的線路已開通。

  • JOHN JENETIS

    JOHN JENETIS

  • You can hear me?

    你們聽得到我嗎?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Yes, we can hear you, Tim.

    是的,Tim,我們聽得到。

  • JOHN JENETIS

    JOHN JENETIS

  • I'm sorry guys, hey it's John [Jenetis] calling in for Tim. A couple of quick questions for you. On the closing expense side, I know you mentioned that you're seeing slow in closing for you guys. How about the industry? Is that moving in line or is that a slowdown as well in terms of theater closings? Has -- is it more or less in line with your expectations, I should say?

    不好意思各位,我是John [Jenetis],代Tim打進來。有幾個簡短問題想請教。關於結束營運(closing)費用這一塊,我知道你們提到你們這邊的結束進度偏慢。那整個產業呢?就戲院關閉的速度而言,是跟你們差不多,還是也同樣放緩?也就是說——我應該這樣問——這個情況大致符合你們的預期嗎?

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • Probably a little less.

    可能稍微少一點。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Probably a little less. I think one of the things you see when the box office is as strong as it is, that some of the underperforming assets in the industry will hang on a little bit longer. So it's -- you know, there has been net reduction in screens to date this year. Probably not as many as we would like to see.

    可能稍微少一點。我想當票房像現在這麼強勁時,你會看到產業中一些表現不佳的資產會多撐一段時間。所以——你知道——今年截至目前,銀幕數量是淨減少的。但可能沒有我們希望看到的那麼多。

  • JOHN JENETIS

    JOHN JENETIS

  • Okay. Great.

    好的。很好。

  • And one other question

    And one other question

  • Are you guys going to have proformas for GC on a quarterly basis in your filings?

    你們會在申報文件中,按季度提供GC的備考(pro forma)數據嗎?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Yeah. We will provide that, certainly as we go through our quarters in fiscal '03, to make the discussions more relevant and the comparisons more relevant, we'll provide pro forma FO 2 numbers by quarter, going forward.

    會的。我們會提供;當然,隨著我們在2003財年各季度的推進,為了讓討論更具相關性、比較也更具相關性,我們會在未來按季度提供FO 2的備考(pro forma)數字。

  • JOHN JENETIS

    JOHN JENETIS

  • Great. Thank you.

    很好。謝謝。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Your next question comes from Jill Cursick from Salomon Smith Barney.

    下一個問題來自Salomon Smith Barney的Jill Cursick。

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • Thank you very much. Good morning. Could you give us a sense of what your free cash target is for fiscal '03, and secondly, if you could perhaps walk through some of the terms on the "Star Wars 2" movie. Are concession revenues involved in payments to Lucas? And then finally, I know you mentioned briefly that some of the smaller theaters are not coming off line as quickly as you thought. Have you revised expectations of theater disposals over the course of the year given the breakout success of the box office? I wonder if that might not happen as quickly as you anticipate. Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。早安。能否請你們讓我們了解一下,2003財年的自由現金流目標大概是多少?其次,是否可以請你們說明一下《星際大戰2》這部電影的一些條款?支付給Lucas的款項是否包含餐飲販售(concession)收入?最後,我知道你們簡短提到一些較小的戲院並沒有如你們原先預期那樣快速退出市場。鑑於票房的爆發性成功,你們是否已在年內調整對戲院處置(disposals)的預期?我在想,這可能不會像你們預期的那麼快發生。非常感謝。

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • I'll try the first one on the FO 3 free cash flow estimate. If you take the range of -- guidance we gave on adjusted EBITDA and then the net cap-x of $44 million, the missing component would be interest, and we believe that we'll probably see net interest in the 70 to 73 million range next year. Which would give you about $85 million of free cash flow in fiscal '03.

    我先試著回答第一個,關於FO 3 自由現金流的估算。如果你採用我們對調整後EBITDA 所給的指引區間,並扣除 4,400 萬美元的淨資本支出(net cap-x),那麼缺少的組成項目會是利息,而我們相信明年我們可能會看到淨利息落在7,000 萬到 7,300 萬美元的區間。如此一來,你在2003 會計年度的自由現金流大約會是8,500 萬美元。

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • Great.

    太好了。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Jill, in the screen -- industry screen question, I guess the -- one of things that we've done is, if you look at the calendar year through the end of March, you have about 175 screens coming off line. If you annualize that number, which represents a year-end screen count of about 34,200, that's a little higher than at one point in time we were looking at that year-end screen count being around mid-33,000 range, something like that. So, I think the relevant thing there is that if you go ahead and if you track on our attendance assumption that we're making for the calendar year and divide that into that screen count, you find that the attendance per screen on even that, if you will provide higher year-end estimated screen count, which show another year of attendance per screen increases on a macro basis for the industry. To refresh everyone's memory, we saw this reversal in attendance per screen in the 2001 calendar year. Where we saw that that attendance per screen grew about 7% over the prior calendar year. And that was as I said a reversal of basically seven straight years of declines in attendance for screens. So, that's a metric we watch in terms of the health of the industry, and we think that it's going to be another healthy year for that metric.

    Jill,關於螢幕數——產業螢幕數的問題,我想——我們做的一件事是,如果你看日曆年度截至3 月底,你大約有 175 個螢幕退出營運。如果把這個數字年化,這代表年末的螢幕數大約是 34,200,這比我們在某個時間點原先預估的年末螢幕數大約在 33,000 中段左右,像那樣的水準,略高一些。所以,我認為這裡的重點是,若你繼續追蹤我們對日曆年度所做的入場人次假設,並用它去除以那個螢幕數,你會發現每螢幕入場人次,即使在你採用較高的年末估計螢幕數的情況下,仍然顯示產業在宏觀層面上每螢幕入場人次又會再增加一年。提醒大家一下,我們在2001 日曆年度看到每螢幕入場人次出現這個反轉。當時我們看到每螢幕入場人次較前一個日曆年度成長約 7%。而正如我所說,那基本上是連續七年螢幕入場人次下滑的反轉。所以,這是我們用來觀察產業健康狀況的一個指標,我們認為這個指標將會是又一個健康的一年。

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • What are your projections, Peter, going forward over the next couple years? For industry screen count.

    Peter,你對未來接下來幾年有什麼預測?就產業螢幕數而言。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • You're pushing me, Jill!

    Jill,你在逼我啊!

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • Sorry.

    抱歉。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • It's hard enough to go out one year. I'd say -- we don't have at this point a fiscal or calendar '04. We just have to get back to you on that. But calendar '02, we are thinking around 34,000ish at the end of year, seems to be reasonable at this point in time.

    要往外推到一年都已經夠難了。我會說——我們目前還沒有2004 會計年度或2004 日曆年度的數字。我們得再回覆你。不過就 2002 日曆年度而言,我們認為年末大約在 34,000 左右,以目前這個時間點看起來算是合理。

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • Okay. Great. And on the terms for "Star Wars"?

    好的。太好了。那《星際大戰》的條款呢?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • In terms for "Star Wars,"without getting specific, they're high. The idea that George Lucas is getting some of the concession revenues is misleading. That is not happening with that. And we believe the picture will be a strong performer in the marketplace, and you know we're always watching our film costs. But we're ultimately focused on retention, and in general these high performance, high cost films generate far greater retention dollars than the lesser films in the marketplace. So, we certainly will enjoy a fruitful run on "Star Wars," and everyone will be happy with how this all worked out.

    就《星際大戰》的條款而言,不談具體細節,確實很高。說喬治・盧卡斯會拿到部分餐飲販售收入(concession revenues)的說法是誤導的。那並沒有發生。而我們相信這部片在市場上會有很強的表現;你也知道我們一直在關注我們的影片成本。但我們最終關注的是片商分成留存(retention),而一般來說,這些高表現、高成本的影片所帶來的留存金額遠高於市場上較弱的影片。所以,我們當然會享受《星際大戰》一段豐收的上映期,而且大家都會對這一切的結果感到滿意。

  • JILL CURSICK

    JILL CURSICK

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    太好了。非常感謝。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • You're welcome. Thank you for the call.

    不客氣。謝謝你來電。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Your next question comes from Mark Renar from Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Mark Renar。

  • MARK RENAR

    MARK RENAR

  • Yes. Good morning, gentleman. Congratulations on a strong quarter and fiscal year. I just have a couple of questions. One is, do you have a target for your theatre lease expense for the next fiscal year?

    是的。各位先生早安。恭喜本季與本會計年度表現強勁。我只有幾個問題。第一個是,你們對下一個會計年度的影城租賃費用有目標值嗎?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Theatre closure expense?

    影城關閉費用?

  • MARK RENAR

    MARK RENAR

  • No, the rental -- Lease expense.

    不是,租金——租賃費用。

  • PETER RENAR

    PETER RENAR

  • Yes. Yeah, it looks like around -- again, this would be with, on a pro forma basis, about $300 million.

    有。是的,看起來大約——同樣地,這會是在備考(pro forma)基礎下,大約 3 億美元。

  • MARK RENAR

    MARK RENAR

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • That would include General Cinema and the Gulf States acquisition.

    那會包含 GeneralCinema 以及 Gulf States的收購案。

  • MARK RENAR

    MARK RENAR

  • Okay. And then a follow-up question: Given the availability and your stated intent to acquire more theaters, could you give more guidance on what theaters you might be targeting and at what point do you start diluting your asset base? Given you have the highest screen count per theaters. What type of acquisitions are you going after?

    好的。接著一個追問:考量到市場上可取得的標的,以及你們表明想要收購更多影城,你能否提供更多指引,說明你們可能鎖定哪些影城,以及在什麼情況下你們會開始稀釋你們的資產基礎?畢竟你們每家影城的螢幕數是最高的。你們在尋求什麼類型的收購?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Well, we -- our target list is very short at this point, but very focused. And I would say that it probably wouldn't be a good idea to be naming specific circuits, but one of the things that we talked about when we were on our equity road show was really the characteristics of the acquisitions, and this kind of goes back to who we are. We're a major DMA player, top 50 DMA player, so it would stand to reason that we'll look at acquisitions that really enhance our footprint and top DMAs major markets. And in addition to that, the other criteria that we look at is really the underlying quality, the asset, and that's really on a micro basis. The types of theaters that the circuit would have. And when you look at those two criteria, you will find that there are a couple of real big major circuits out there that would fit that criteria. But -- and then in addition to that, there would be some smaller, local/regional circuits that fit that criteria. So, you know, we've got our eye on several of them, and the thing about acquisitions is you can never quite plan on when they're going to happen. You just have to work 'em, work 'em work 'em, work 'em. But we're certainly working them.

    嗯,我們——我們目前的目標名單非常短,但非常聚焦。我會說,現在去點名特定的院線可能不是個好主意;但我們在股票(equity)路演時談到的一件事,其實是收購案的特性,而這也回到我們是誰。我們是主要 DMA 的業者,前50 大 DMA 的業者,所以合理推論我們會看能真正強化我們版圖、並在主要DMA/主要市場擴張的收購案。除此之外,我們看的另一個標準是資產的底層品質,這更偏向微觀層面:該院線所擁有的影城類型。當你用這兩個標準去看,會發現外面有幾家真正大型的主要院線符合這些條件。不過——此外也會有一些較小的在地/區域院線符合這些條件。所以你知道,我們正關注其中好幾家;而收購這件事的特性是,你永遠無法完全規劃它們會在什麼時候發生。你只能一直做、一直做、一直做、一直做。但我們確實正在推進。

  • MARK RENER

    MARK RENER

  • Okay. Great. Thank you.

    好的。太好了。謝謝。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Your next question comes from John Maxwell from E and T [INAUDIBLE].

    下一個問題來自 E and T [INAUDIBLE] 的 JohnMaxwell。

  • JOHN MAXWELL

    JOHN MAXWELL

  • Good morning, gentlemen. Peter, kind of follow-up to the last question, I guess you already talked about terms of -- you know, it seems you got a pretty good war chest of liquidity. Absent -- you know, closing on an acquisition, do you just keep the free cash flow building, or would you then kind of -- you know, if the acquisition targets aren't there, then start refocusing on maybe a more aggressive development program?

    各位先生早安。Peter,算是延續上一個問題,我想你已經談到條款——你知道,看起來你們有相當充裕的流動性「戰備金」。在沒有——你知道,完成一筆收購的情況下,你們是就讓自由現金流持續累積,還是會在——你知道,如果收購標的不在那裡,就開始把重心轉回例如更積極的開發計畫?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Oh, I wouldn't say aggressive development program. One of the things that we have talked about it terms of our strategic plan to refresh everyone really three components: Focus on the fundamentals, which is really driving operating efficiencies, optimizing our theatre portfolio, and then really enhancing our business and brand through growing ancillary revenues, and it's really the second component that we're talking about. What we've said is that there will be, as you look at optimizing our theater portfolio, really three components of that, selective strategic new building, continued disposition and acquisitions. So, on the new bill front, you would expect for us to be in the vicinity of a hundredish screens a year, the next few years, in which we consider to be a sustaining growth rate in terms of new-build activity. And our focus on new builds is very as it has historically been very high-quality, real estate projects, really the triple-A real estate projects, with the high-quality theater unit at the high-quality real estate project. So, I wouldn't see us stepping on the accelerator just because we have a little more money in our pockets. We would be more -- we are going to be very disciplined in terms of how we grow and not go out and do bad deals, if you will, for the sake of putting that money to work.

    噢,我不會把它稱為激進的開發計畫。我們在談到我們的策略計畫、讓大家重新聚焦時,其實有三個組成部分:專注於基本面,也就是推動營運效率、最佳化我們的影院組合,然後真正地透過成長附屬收入來強化我們的業務與品牌,而我們現在談的其實是第二個部分。我們說過,當你著眼於最佳化我們的影院組合時,確實有三個組成部分:選擇性、策略性的新增建置、持續的處分以及併購。所以,在新建方面,你會預期我們在未來幾年,每年大約會在一百來個銀幕的規模附近,這在我們看來是新建活動方面的維持性成長率。而我們對新建的聚焦,一如過往歷史上一直都是非常高品質的不動產專案,真正的 3A 級不動產專案,並在高品質的不動產專案中配置高品質的影院單體。所以,我不會認為我們會因為口袋裡多了一點錢就踩下油門加速。我們會更——我們將在成長方式上非常自律,不會為了把那筆錢拿去運用就去做不好的交易。

  • JOHN MAXWELL

    JOHN MAXWELL

  • Okay. And also, just kind of a follow-up on the acquisition front. Is it your sense that there -- it would be more expensive now just based on the state of the industry, or really isn't a factor, it's more of a question just finding the right fit?

    好的。另外,關於併購面向,我再追問一下。你的感覺是,基於產業現況,現在會更昂貴嗎?還是其實不是因素,更多只是要找到合適的標的?

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • I think it's the latter. I think it's really finding the right fit at this point. Because, you know, the thing -- the kind of circuits that we're interested in we generally have a higher quality characteristic about them anyway, and really for us what we're paying attention to is to make sure that we bring cash flows into the equation in a way that create value. And that's how we're approaching it.

    我認為是後者。我覺得目前重點真的是找到合適的契合點。因為,你知道,我們感興趣的那類院線,通常本來就具有較高品質的特性;而對我們而言,我們關注的是確保把現金流納入評估,以能夠創造價值的方式來做。這就是我們的做法。

  • JOHN MAXWELL

    JOHN MAXWELL

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Your next question comes from [INAUDIBLE]

    下一個問題來自[聽不清]。

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • Hello?

    喂?

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Mr. [INAUDIBLE], your line is open.

    [聽不清]先生,您的線路已經開通。

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • I'm sorry. Kind of got muddled. I'm sorry about that. Hi, gentlemen. My question pertains to film rental expense. In addition to "Star Wars", this is number of sequels and prequels, can you talk a little about in the June quarter and also in the September quarter, thoughts about film rental expense as a percentage of admission revenues?

    不好意思。有點搞混了。很抱歉。各位先生好。我想問的問題是關於影片租片費用。除了《星際大戰》之外,還有一些續集與前傳,能否請你們談談6 月季度以及 9 月季度,對於影片租片費用占入場(票房)收入百分比的看法?

  • DICK WALSH

    DICK WALSH

  • It's our belief that we're probably going to track 100, maybe possibly 200 basis points higher than last year. During this period. We have -- we've already experienced some of this. While I applaud "Scorpion King" coming into the marketplace, that was a rather expensive picture, and of course you can imagine that "Spiderman" is expensive and I'm looking at first six weeks of our fiscal year here, and while our film rent expense is up about 1.8%, percentage points, which is 2%, and this is on a same-store basis, our retention dollars are up $4.7 million dollars. Or 15% higher than a year ago. So this concept that yes, we are indeed paying more for the product, we are also grossing much more with that product, and at the end of the day the company is healthy because of that. Now, that is not to say that we're going to take our eye off the ball and just willy-nilly pay film rent for whatever needs to be to get the job done. We do focus on that. We do watch it very closely. But again, at the end of the day, it appears to us that the retention dollars that we're able to take to the bank are the most key component of that whole dynamic.

    我們認為,在這段期間,我們大概會比去年高出 100 個,也可能高達 200 個基點。我們——我們已經經歷到其中一部分了。雖然我很肯定《魔蠍大帝》進入市場,但那是一部相當昂貴的片子;當然你也可以想像《蜘蛛人》很昂貴。我看我們本會計年度前六週的數據,雖然我們的租片費用率上升了大約 1.8 個百分點,也就是 2%,而且這是在同店基礎上,但我們的留存金額(retention dollars)增加了 470 萬美元,比一年前高出 15%。所以,這個概念是:是的,我們確實為內容付出更多成本,但我們也用這些內容創造了更高的總收入,而到最後,公司因此更健康。當然,這並不是說我們會掉以輕心,隨隨便便地支付租片費用,為了把事情做成就付到任何需要的程度。我們確實會聚焦在這點上。我們也會非常密切地監控。但再說一次,到最後,我們能夠真正帶去銀行的留存金額,似乎才是整個動態中最關鍵的組成部分。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • I'd like to echo what Dick has said and just make certain that everybody understands this retention concept. It really is a gross margin concept, and while we do look at percentages that a film -- or we're paying on a film, we also keep our eye very closely on retention, and that would be the admissions revenue less the film cost or for net gross margin dollars, because at the end of the day, you know, it's dollars that you take to the bank.

    我想呼應 Dick所說的,並確保大家都理解這個「留存」概念。它其實是一個毛利率概念。雖然我們會看某部片——也就是我們在某部片上支付的百分比,但我們也會非常密切地關注留存,也就是入場收入減去影片成本,或用淨毛利金額來看;因為到最後,你知道,真正重要的是你能帶去銀行的現金金額。

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • Great. Thank you very much. And I absolutely agree with that strategy.

    很好。非常感謝。而且我完全同意那個策略。

  • UNKNOWN SPEAKER

    UNKNOWN SPEAKER

  • Thank you, Stewart.

    謝謝你,Stewart。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • At this time, there are no further questions.

    目前,沒有其他問題。

  • PETER BROWN

    PETER BROWN

  • Okay, great. Well, then with that, we'll close the call. I want to thank everybody for joining us today. As you can tell, we're very excited about the Summer product. Looks very strong. We've kicked off with "Spiderman" and then last night, "Star Wars." but I would say that as excited and as great as the strong product is, what excites us more is really the strength of your company. And with our quality asset base, the statistics still walks through and will continue to walk through, that is, our circuit of high-volume, high-performance theaters that is really unsurpassed in our industry. Our proven management team and our unsurpassed financial resources, we look very forward to continuing to successfully execute our strategic plan, and continue to build AMC as we do that at the single -- a single theatre brand in the marketplace. So with that, we'll see you next quarter. But hopefully, before that we'll see you at the movies.

    好的,很好。那麼,我們就結束這通電話。我要感謝大家今天加入我們。如各位所見,我們對暑期檔的片單非常興奮。看起來非常強勁。我們以《蜘蛛人》揭開序幕,然後昨晚是《星際大戰》。但我想說,儘管強勁的片單令人振奮、也很棒,真正更讓我們興奮的是公司本身的實力。憑藉我們高品質的資產基礎,相關數據已經證明、也將持續證明:我們擁有一個高流量、高手績的影院院線網絡,在業界確實無可匹敵。再加上我們經驗證的管理團隊,以及無可匹敵的財務資源,我們非常期待持續成功地執行我們的策略計畫,並在此過程中持續打造 AMC,使其在市場上成為單一——一個單一的影院品牌。那麼,我們下個季度再見。但希望在那之前,能在電影院先見到各位。

  • CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

    CONFERENCE FACILITATOR

  • Thank you for participating in today's AMC Entertainment, Inc. conference call. This call will be be available for replay beginning at 1 P.M. Eastern time today through 11P.M. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 30th. The website is www.amctheatres.com. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參與今日 AMCEntertainment, Inc. 的電話會議。本次電話會議將於今日美東時間下午 1 點起提供重播,至 5 月 30 日(週四)美東時間晚上 11 點止。網站為 www.amctheatres.com。您現在可以掛線。