Antero Midstream Corp (AM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Antero Midstream Third-Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Antero Midstream 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Justin Agnew, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Agnew, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，財務和投資者關係副總裁賈斯汀·阿格紐先生。謝謝您，阿格紐先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

早安，感謝您參加 Antero Midstream 第三季投資人電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間瀏覽財務和營運亮點，然後我們將進行問答。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我還想引導您訪問我們網站的主頁 www.anteromidstream.com，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話演示，將在今天的電話會議期間進行審查。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也可能包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，以了解有關此類措施的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream; Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Michael Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources and Director of Antero Midstream.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有 Antero Resources 和 Antero Midstream 董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady； Antero Midstream 財務長 Brendan Krueger；以及 Antero Resources 財務長兼 Antero Midstream 總監 Michael Kennedy。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

這樣，我就把電話轉給保羅。

Thanks, Justin, and good morning, everyone. In my comments, I will discuss AM's 2024 capital budget as well as AR's peer-leading free cash flow breakevens supported by strong international LPG pricing. Brendan will then walk through our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook.

謝謝賈斯汀，大家早安。在我的評論中，我將討論 AM 的 2024 年資本預算以及 AR 在強勁的國際液化石油氣定價的支持下領先同行的自由現金流盈虧平衡點。然後，布倫丹將介紹我們的第三季業績和第四季展望。

Let me start on slide number 3 titled Efficiently Executing on 2024 Capital Program. The left-hand side of the page illustrates our 2024 capital expenditures compared to our budget of $150 million to $170 million. As we laid out in our initial guidance earlier this year, we had expected a majority of the capital to be invested in the second and third quarters as summer weather conditions are supportive of construction in Appalachia.

讓我從標題為「高效執行 2024 年資本計畫」的第 3 號投影片開始。頁面左側顯示了我們 2024 年的資本支出與 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元的預算相比。正如我們在今年稍早的初步指導中所闡述的那樣，我們預計大部分資金將在第二季和第三季進行投資，因為夏季天氣條件有利於阿巴拉契亞的建設。

During the third quarter, as a result of more favorable weather conditions, we accelerated some capital initially scheduled for later in the year. This resulted in $56 million invested during the third quarter or 35% of the full year budget. Because of this acceleration, we expect a significant decline in capital in the fourth quarter and also expect to end the year within our annual capital budget guidance range.

第三季度，由於天氣條件更加有利，我們加快了原定於今年稍後進行的一些資本投入。這導致第三季投資 5,600 萬美元，佔全年預算的 35%。由於這種加速，我們預計第四季度資本將大幅下降，並預計年底將在我們的年度資本預算指導範圍內。

Looking at page 3, the pictures on the right-hand side of the page depict our Torreys Peak compressor station. We continue to make good progress on the construction of this station, which is expected to have 160 million cubic feet a day of capacity. This station is expected to be placed online in the second quarter of 2025, and is located in the heart of our liquids-rich midstream corridor.

請看第 3 頁，頁面右側的圖片描繪了我們的 Torreys Peak 壓縮機站。該站的建設繼續取得良好進展，預計日處理能力為 1.6 億立方英尺。該站預計將於 2025 年第二季上線，位於我們液體豐富的中游走廊的中心。

Now let's move on to slide number 4, titled International Premium Support AR Free Cash Flow. The left-hand side of the page depicts the premium that AR receives on its propane exports transported on the Mariner East pipeline and exported out of Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania.

現在讓我們繼續看第四張投影片，標題為「國際高級支援 AR 自由現金流」。頁面左側描繪了 AR 在通過 Mariner East 管道運輸並從賓夕法尼亞州馬庫斯胡克出口的丙烷出口中獲得的溢價。

This premium has expanded into the high $0.20 per gallon range as a result of strong international demand, combined with export constraints along the Gulf Coast. This is a distinct competitive advantage for AR to have unconstrained access to the international markets and to be able to capture these premiums by selling propane at the dock at Marcus Hook.

由於國際需求強勁，加上墨西哥灣沿岸的出口限制，這項溢價已擴大至每加侖 0.20 美元的高點。對於 AR 來說，這是一個明顯的競爭優勢，因為它可以不受限制地進入國際市場，並能夠透過在馬庫斯胡克碼頭銷售丙烷來獲得這些溢價。

Importantly, we expect these premiums to persist into 2025 until additional export capacity along the Gulf Coast is placed online. These premiums AR's significant liquids exposure and capital efficiencies that have resulted in peer-leading unhedged free cash flow breakevens in 2024.

重要的是，我們預計這些溢價將持續到 2025 年，直到墨西哥灣沿岸的額外出口能力上線。這些溢價 AR 的大量流動性曝險和資本效率導致 2024 年實現了同行領先的未對沖自由現金流盈虧平衡。

As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, AR's unhedged free cash flow breakevens are approximately $2.20 per Mcf of gas, well below other natural gas peers. This allows AR to continue operating in a maintenance capital level even in today's depressed natural gas environment, providing development and earnings stability for AM.

正如您在頁面右側所看到的，AR 的未對沖自由現金流損益平衡點約為每 Mcf 天然氣 2.20 美元，遠低於其他天然氣同行。這使得 AR 即使在當今低迷的天然氣環境下也能以維持資本水平繼續運營，為 AM 提供發展和盈利穩定性。

With that, I will turn the call over to Brendan Krueger.

這樣，我會將電話轉給布倫丹·克魯格。

Thanks, Paul. I will begin my comments on slide number five titled Third quarter, 2024 highlights during the quarter, we generated EBIDA of $256 million which was a 2% increase year over year throughput. Volumes were approximately flat compared to the second quarter.

謝謝，保羅。我將從標題為 2024 年第三季度亮點的第五張幻燈片開始評論，在本季度，我們產生了 2.56 億美元的 EBIDA，吞吐量同比增長 2%。與第二季相比，銷量大致持平。

And freshwater delivery volumes declined sequentially as a result of a operating one completion crew and deferring a duck pad out of the third quarter due to depressed natural gas prices free cash flow after dividends was $40 million which was a 32% increase from last year.

由於天然氣價格低迷，營運了一支完井隊，並將鴨墊推遲到第三季度，淡水輸送量環比下降，股息後自由現金流為 4000 萬美元，比去年增長 32%。

All free cash flow during the quarter was utilized to reduce absolute debt and resulted in a leverage of 3.1 times as of September 30th. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and reiterating Paul's earlier comments, we expect a significant decline in capital as a result of the acceleration that occurred in the third quarter.

本季的所有自由現金流均用於減少絕對債務，截至 9 月 30 日槓桿率為 3.1 倍。展望第四季並重申保羅先前的評論，我們預計由於第三季的加速，資本將大幅下降。

This is expected to result in increasing free cash flow, additional absolute debt reduction and leverage declining below three times during the fourth quarter.

預計這將導致第四季度自由現金流增加、絕對債務進一步減少以及槓桿率下降至三倍以下。

Next, let's move on to slide number 6, titled consistent free cash flow generation. This slide illustrates the quarterly and cumulative free cash flow after dividends since the third quarter of 2022 when we acquired the first of our bolt on acquisitions, as you can see, we have generated free cash flow after dividends in every single quarter, which has totaled over $350 million over the last two years.

接下來，讓我們繼續看第 6 張投影片，標題為「持續的自由現金流生成」。這張投影片展示了自 2022 年第三季我們進行第一筆收購以來的季度和累計股息後自由現金流，正如您所看到的，我們每個季度都產生了股息後自由現金流，總計過去兩年超過3.5 億美元。

This is well above the $287 million of bolt on acquisitions over the same period, highlighting the accretive nature and successful integration of these assets. Importantly, this slide also illustrates our ability to internally finance both our organic capital program and acquisitions that drive ebida and free cash flow growth.

這遠高於同期 2.87 億美元的追加收購，凸顯了這些資產的增值性和成功整合。重要的是，這張投影片也說明了我們為有機資本計畫和收購提供內部融資的能力，從而推動了稅息折舊及自由現金流的成長。

I'll finish my comments on slide number 7 titled delivering on our free cash flow outline.

我將在標題為「交付我們的自由現金流大綱」的第 7 號投影片上完成我的評論。

Over the past decade, we have built out Appalachia's largest integrated liquids rich midstream system and are now realizing the benefits of our organic capital investments. These investments generate high teens return on invested capital and significant free cash flow.

在過去的十年中，我們建造了阿巴拉契亞最大的綜合富含液體的中游系統，現在正在實現我們有機資本投資的好處。這些投資產生高額的投資資本報酬率和大量的自由現金流。

This results in the ability to internally finance our capital programs fund our dividend payments and reduce absolute debt. As a result of absolute debt reduction and EBITDA growth, we expect leverage to decline to less than three times in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our initial expectation was to achieve our three times leverage target by year end 2025. So we are one year ahead of schedule on our target.

這使得我們能夠在內部為我們的資本計劃提供資金，為我們的股息支付提供資金並減少絕對債務。由於絕對債務減少和 EBITDA 成長，我們預計第四季度槓桿率將降至三倍以下。提醒一下，我們最初的預期是到 2025 年底實現三倍槓桿目標。因此，我們比原計劃提前了一年。

Additionally, I will note that our initial leverage target did not include any acquisitions. Antero Midstream was able to execute several accretive transactions, as we just discussed, all of which were 100% financed through free cash flow. As we look ahead to 2025, we expect further growth in EBITDA and free cash flow. This positions us well to return incremental capital to shareholders.

此外，我要指出的是，我們最初的槓桿目標不包括任何收購。正如我們剛才所討論的，Antero Midstream 能夠執行幾項增值交易，所有這些交易都是 100% 透過自由現金流融資的。展望 2025 年，我們預期 EBITDA 和自由現金流將進一步成長。這使我們能夠很好地將增量資本返還給股東。

With that operator, we are ready to take questions.

透過該操作員，我們準備好回答問題。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）

Jeremy Tonet, JP Morgan Chase & Co.

傑里米·託內特，摩根大通公司

This is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. First, I wanted to touch on the impact to AM's results from AR announcing the deferral of completion on the one pad from '24 into '25 and then the deferral of the second pad from early '25 into the latter part of the year. Can you size the impact towards the end of '24 and into '25?

這是傑里米的諾亞·卡茨。首先，我想談談AR 宣布將第一個焊盤的完成時間從24 年推遲到25 年，然後將第二個焊盤的完成時間從25 年初推遲到今年下半年，這對AM 業績的影響。您能否評估 24 年底至 25 年間的影響？

Yes. Great question. If you look at 2024 and the guidance range we've given, you can see we've given a range that, to the extent AR completed that due to higher prices, you would fall in the middle of that range. To the extent AR defers it, you'd fall near the lower end of the range. It's about $10 million of EBITDA overall, if you look at just the water impact, you wouldn't see the gathering impact until next year anyways.

是的。很好的問題。如果您查看 2024 年和我們給出的指導範圍，您會發現我們給出了一個範圍，如果 AR 由於價格上漲而完成，您將落在該範圍的中間。如果 AR 推遲了它，你就會落在該範圍的下限附近。整體 EBITDA 約為 1000 萬美元，如果您只考慮水的影響，無論如何，直到明年您才會看到聚集的影響。

So the water impact this year would be about $10 million. And then no change really on 2025 in terms of where that's shaking out, push back a bit, you'll still get the water volumes and the gathering would fall within expectations.

因此，今年的水資源影響約為 1,000 萬美元。到 2025 年，就震動的情況而言，實際上並沒有任何變化，稍微推遲一點，你仍然會得到水量，聚會也將在預期之內。

Thanks for that. And then going off of that question, with the nine wells being serviced in 3Q, it looks like AM has serviced 45 wells so far this year. So to hit the guide of 52 to 57, I think you'd have to service between 7 to 12 wells in 4Q. If there was another completion crew added, what are your guys' expectations on how many more water wells you could potentially service in total? Thanks.

謝謝你。然後離開這個問題，隨著第三季度對 9 口井進行了維修，看起來 AM 今年到目前為止已經為 45 口井提供了服務。因此，要達到 52 至 57 口的指導，我認為您必須在第四季度維修 7 至 12 口井。如果再增加一個完井人員，你們對總共可以服務多少口水井的期望是什麼？謝謝。

Yes. So I think again, the 7 to 12 you mentioned there, midpoint of that, I would assume the completion of that hot pad, if it got deferred out, five wells. So you'd be slightly below that 7 to 12. So I think that answers your question. But overall, the easy answer to think about in terms of how much one completion crew provides in terms of water, it's about 75,000 to 80,000 barrels a day per completion crew in terms of water that's delivered.

是的。所以我再次想到，你提到的 7 到 12 口井，其中中點，我假設熱墊的完成，如果它被推遲的話，需要 5 口井。所以你會略低於 7 到 12。所以我認為這回答了你的問題。但總體而言，就一個完井隊提供的水量而言，最簡單的答案是每個完井隊每天輸送的水量約為 75,000 至 80,000 桶。

We had a little bit less this quarter, just driven by the ramp-up of an e-fleet. We made a move to an e-fleet this quarter. So just the ramp-up time led to a little bit less than the 75,000 to 80,000. But generally, if you have one crew, it's 75,000 to 80,000. So if you were operating 2 crews, for example, in a quarter, you'd be 150,000 or a little bit above that.

本季我們的銷量有所減少，這只是由於電子車隊的增加所致。本季我們轉向電子車隊。因此，光是啟動時間就比 75,000 到 80,000 少了一點。但一般來說，如果你有一個船員，那就是 75,000 到 80,000 人。因此，例如，如果您在一個季度內經營 2 名工作人員，那麼您的人數將達到 150,000 人或略高於此數字。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Naomi Marfatia, UBS.

內奧米·瑪法蒂亞，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning. Just as a follow-up to one of the earlier questions, maybe to look ahead to '25, given some of the deferrals in AR activity, along with the dropping of a completion crew and a rig in '24. Just kind of wondering if you could kind of characterize some of the drivers of growth going into '25. Should we still be expecting like mid-single-digit growth, or is there a potential upside to it?

嗨，早安。正如先前問題之一的後續，考慮到 AR 活動的一些延期，以及 24 年完井人員和鑽機的減少，也許可以展望 25 年。只是想知道您是否可以描述進入 25 世紀的一些成長驅動因素。我們是否仍然應該期待中等個位數的成長，或者是否有潛在的上行空間？

No, I think that's a fair assumption. On the gathering side, we expect in the low to mid-single-digit growth. You have a little bit of CPI escalation on those fees. And then on the water side, it will just depend on where we end up on those deferrals. But generally, should assume about consistent volumes year-over-year. If the pad gets deferred, completely out of '24 to '25 then you'd expect a little bit more volumes in '25 relative to '24.

不，我認為這是一個合理的假設。在聚集方面，我們預計將出現低至中個位數的成長。這些費用會導致 CPI 略有上升。然後在水方面，這將取決於我們最終推遲這些延期的結果。但一般來說，應該假設銷量與去年同期保持一致。如果墊子被推遲，完全從 24 年到 25 年，那麼你預計 25 年的銷量會比 24 年多一些。

Great, thanks. Just as a follow-up, I think, on the Veolia payment, your 10-Q had a small update. So just wondering what are the signposts and how is management thinking about the potential use of proceeds?

太好了，謝謝。我認為，作為後續行動，關於威立雅付款，您的 10-Q 有一個小更新。那麼只是想知道路標是什麼以及管理層如何考慮收益的潛在用途？

Yes, no great answer in terms of timing there. It's still in the court hands, went through the appeals, but we don't have a definitive answer and they don't have a definitive time in terms of when they need to respond. So a little bit of a waiting game still there. To the extent that came in, we would just certainly analyze where we're at on debt, where we're at in terms of the leverage target and make a decision in terms of what makes the most sense at that time. But no great timing as we sit here today after that update.

是的，就時間安排而言，沒有很好的答案。它仍在法庭手中，經過了上訴，但我們沒有明確的答案，他們也沒有明確的時間來決定何時做出回應。所以還有一點等待的遊戲。在某種程度上，我們肯定會分析我們的債務狀況、槓桿目標的狀況，並根據當時最合理的方式做出決定。但在更新之後我們今天坐在這裡，時機並不好。

Thanks that's helpful. I'll leave it there.

謝謝，這很有幫助。我會把它留在那裡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

約翰麥凱，高盛。

Hey, thanks for the time. I just want to pick up on a couple of these pointing to getting below 3x in the fourth quarter. I guess, how much of that is driven by your confidence in kind of CapEx coming down and the free cash flow looking better that way versus this kind of implied EBITDA step-up just because we've talked about a couple of moving pieces. And should that mean we could start to see buybacks this quarter? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你的時間。我只想了解其中一些內容，指出第四季的成長率將低於 3 倍。我猜想，這在很大程度上是由您對資本支出下降的信心所驅動的，而且自由現金流看起來比這種隱含的 EBITDA 上升更好，因為我們已經討論了一些動態因素。這是否意味著我們可以在本季開始看到回購？謝謝。

Yes. I think we've said in terms of -- once we hit the 3 times target, we'll look to the buyback market. I think we do have a lot of confidence we'll hit that 3 times target in the fourth quarter. It's really a combination of your points, very confident in the capital coming down.

是的。我認為我們已經說過——一旦我們達到 3 倍的目標，我們就會專注於回購市場。我認為我們確實有信心在第四季實現 3 次目標。這確實是你的觀點的結合，對資本的下降非常有信心。

And then in terms of the EBITDA, should see a bit of growth. As I mentioned, we had some ramp-up time in the third quarter on that e-fleet. So even if you just ran one fleet, you should see 10,000 barrels a day of growth or so relative to third quarter.

然後就 EBITDA 而言，應該會看到一點成長。正如我所提到的，我們在第三季度對該電子車隊進行了一些準備。因此，即使您只經營一支船隊，相對於第三季度，您每天也應該看到 10,000 桶左右的成長。

So we feel good about overall increase in cash flow. And if that pad slid into the fourth quarter because of pricing, then you'd see even a further benefit. But even without that, we feel pretty good about hitting that 3 times target in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們對現金流的整體成長感到滿意。如果由於定價原因該墊滑到第四季度，那麼您會看到進一步的好處。但即使沒有這個，我們對在第四季度實現 3 次目標感到非常滿意。

And I guess if we're looking at the implied CapEx budget for fourth quarter, I mean, again, you've talked about some of the moving pieces. But like how do we take that and think about what maybe like a run rate CapEx could look like in, let's say, '25 going forward?

我想如果我們正在考慮第四季度的隱含資本支出預算，我的意思是，您再次談到了一些變化的部分。但是，我們如何看待這一點，並思考 25 年以後的資本支出運作率可能會是什麼樣子？

Yes. In '25, I think we've said historically that we'd be in that $150 million to $200 million, I think, assuming somewhere in the middle of that range is probably a safe bet for '25. We're still in the budgeting process, but in that $150 million to $200 million range is a fair assumption as we sit here today, assuming the midpoint is probably a fair assumption.

是的。在 25 年，我認為我們歷史上曾說過，我們的收入將在 1.5 億至 2 億美元之間，我認為，假設在該範圍的中間某個位置可能是 25 年的安全賭注。我們仍在製定預算過程中，但當我們今天坐在這裡時，1.5 億美元到 2 億美元的範圍是一個合理的假設，假設中點可能是一個合理的假設。

Great. Thanks for your time.

偉大的。感謝您抽出時間。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Justin Agnew for closing comments.

女士們、先生們，問答環節已經結束。現在我想請賈斯汀·阿格紐發表總結意見。

Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone that joined today's conference call. Please feel free to reach out with any follow-up questions. Thank you.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝所有參加今天電話會議的人。如有任何後續問題，請隨時與我們聯絡。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。