Antero Midstream Corp (AM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Antero Midstream fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加 Antero Midstream 2024 年第四季收益電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Justin Agnew, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Justin, you may now begin.

現在我很高興介紹財務和投資者關係副總裁賈斯汀·阿格紐 (Justin Agnew)。賈斯汀，你現在可以開始了。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's fourth-quarter investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您參加 Antero Midstream 第四季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間介紹財務和營運亮點，然後進行問答。

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we've provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

我還想引導您訪問我們的網站主頁 www.anteromidstream.com，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，將在今天的電話會議上進行審查。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議可能還包含某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們的收益新聞稿，以了解有關此類指標的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO, and President of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream; Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Michael Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources and Director of Antero Midstream.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Antero Resources 和 Antero Midstream 的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Paul Rady； Antero Midstream 財務長 Brendan Krueger；以及 Antero Resources 財務長兼 Antero Midstream 董事 Michael Kennedy。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給保羅。

Thanks, Justin. Good morning, everyone. In my comments, I will discuss AM's consistent EBITDA growth and increasing return on invested capital. I will also spend time highlighting our 2025 capital budget. Brendan will then walk through our fourth-quarter results and discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook.

謝謝，賈斯汀。大家早安。在我的評論中，我將討論 AM 持續的 EBITDA 成長和不斷增加的投資資本回報率。我還將花時間重點介紹我們的 2025 年資本預算。然後，布倫丹將介紹我們的第四季度業績並討論我們的 2025 年指導和展望。

Let's start on slide number 3 titled: A Decade of Consistent Growth and Returns. This slide illustrates AM's EBITDA growth and return on invested capital or ROIC. In 2024, we generated EBITDA of $1.05 billion, our 10th consecutive year of EBITDA growth. Importantly, in 2024, we generated an ROIC of 19%, which was a company record.

讓我們從第三張投影片開始，標題為「十年持續成長和回報」。這張投影片說明了 AM 的 EBITDA 成長和投資資本回報率或 ROIC。2024 年，我們的 EBITDA 達到 10.5 億美元，這是我們連續第 10 年實現 EBITDA 成長。重要的是，2024 年，我們的投資資本回報率達到 19%，創下了公司最高紀錄。

Our just-in-time capital investment philosophy, unparalleled visibility, and accretion from our bolt-on acquisition all contributed to the increase in ROIC in 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued EBITDA growth driven by year-over-year throughput growth, which Brendan will provide more details around.

我們的即時資本投資理念、無與倫比的可視性以及透過附加收購獲得的成長都促進了 2024 年 ROIC 的提高。展望 2025 年，我們預計 EBITDA 將繼續成長，這得益於吞吐量的逐年增長，Brendan 將提供更多詳細資訊。

Now let's move on to slide number 4 titled: 2025 Capital Budget Summary. In 2025, we budgeted $170 million to $200 million of capital expenditures. This consists of approximately $100 million of organic capital and $15 million investment in the Stonewall joint venture. Our gathering and compression capital for 2025 is approximately $85 million, about half of the previously mentioned $170 million of organic capital. This includes our traditional blocking and tackling low pressure gathering connects, and the remaining capital for our Torrey’s Peak compressor station, which is depicted on the right-hand side of the page.

現在讓我們來看看第 4 張投影片，標題為「2025 年資本預算摘要」。2025 年，我們預算的資本支出為 1.7 億至 2 億美元。其中包括約 1 億美元的有機資本和 Stonewall 合資企業的 1,500 萬美元投資。我們 2025 年的收集和壓縮資本約為 8,500 萬美元，約為前面提到的 1.7 億美元有機資本的一半。這包括我們傳統的阻斷和解決低壓收集連接的問題，以及我們托里峰壓縮機站的剩餘資金，該站如頁面右側所示。

This station will have 160 million cubic feet a day of capacity and is expected to be placed in service during the second quarter of 2025. This station was built with relocated units from an underutilized station that resulted in approximately $25 million of estimated savings.

該站日供水能力為 1.6 億立方英尺，預計將於 2025 年第二季投入使用。該站採用從一個利用率不足的車站搬遷而來的機組建造，預計節省費用約為 2500 萬美元。

In the water business segment, we are investing approximately $85 million in 2025. This $85 million includes an expansion of our water system to the southern half of our Marcellus footprint and creates one integrated system across the entire liquids-rich midstream corridor. This upgrade will support capital-efficient development and flexibility across the entire acreage position for the next decade and beyond.

在水業務領域，我們將在 2025 年投資約 8,500 萬美元。這筆 8500 萬美元的資金包括將我們的供水系統擴展到馬塞勒斯覆蓋範圍的南半部，並在整個富含液體的中游走廊創建一個整合系統。此次升級將支持未來十年及以後整個油田的資本高效開發和靈活性。

Lastly, let's discuss our $15 million investment in Stonewall, which is the primary driver of the increase in capital expenditures year over year. This investment is for additional compression on the Stonewall gathering system. The additional compression will allow third-party customers to deliver gas through Stonewall onto other long-haul pipelines, further diversifying Antero Midstream's customer base.

最後，讓我們討論一下我們對 Stonewall 的 1500 萬美元投資，這是資本支出逐年增加的主要動力。這項投資是為了對 Stonewall 收集系統進行額外的壓縮。額外的壓縮將允許第三方客戶透過 Stonewall 將天然氣輸送到其他長途管道，進一步分散 Antero Midstream 的客戶群。

With that, I will turn the call over to Brendan.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給布倫丹。

Thanks, Paul. I will begin my comments on slide number 5 titled: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Highlights. During the fourth quarter, we generated $274 million of EBITDA, which was an 8% increase year over year. Free cash flow after dividends was $93 million, a 91% increase year over year. Importantly, this free cash flow allowed us to reduce absolute debt by over $50 million and achieve our 3 times leverage target during the quarter.

謝謝，保羅。我將從第 5 張投影片開始發表評論，標題為「2024 年第四季和全年亮點」。第四季度，我們的 EBITDA 為 2.74 億美元，年增 8%。股息後的自由現金流為 9,300 萬美元，較去年同期成長 91%。重要的是，這筆自由現金流使我們在本季減少了 5,000 多萬美元的絕對債務，並實現了 3 倍的槓桿目標。

As a result, we commenced our share repurchase program, repurchasing almost 30 million of shares during the quarter. Looking at full year 2024 results, we generated $250 million of free cash flow after dividends, which was a company record. This allowed us to internally finance our Marcellus bolt-on acquisition earlier this year, reduce debt by almost $100 million, and repurchased shares all within the same year.

因此，我們啟動了股票回購計劃，本季回購了近 3,000 萬股。縱觀 2024 年全年業績，我們在股息後產生了 2.5 億美元的自由現金流，創下了公司的最高紀錄。這使我們能夠在今年稍早為 Marcellus 附加收購進行內部融資，減少近 1 億美元的債務，並在同一年內回購股票。

Now let's move on to slide number 6 titled: 2025 Guidance. As we look ahead to 2025, we are forecasting similar levels of development activity from our primary customer, Antero Resources. This includes approximately 2 rigs and just over 1 completion crew operating exclusively on AM dedicated acreage. This is expected to result in low-single-digit throughput growth on AM's system and consistent freshwater delivery volumes year over year.

現在讓我們來看第 6 張投影片，標題為「2025 年指引」。展望 2025 年，我們預測我們的主要客戶 Antero Resources 將進行類似水準的開發活動。其中包括大約 2 台鑽孔機和 1 支以上的完井隊，專門在 AM 專用區域作業。預計這將導致 AM 系統的吞吐量實現低個位數增長，並且淡水輸送量逐年保持穩定。

This growth in our gathering and processing segment combined with annual CPI adjustments to our fees results in mid-single-digit EBITDA growth as depicted on the top left portion of the page. As Paul noted, our capital budget is $170 million to $200 million. We expect our interest expense to be lower in 2025 as a result of lower absolute debt levels. As a result, we expect to generate $250 million to $300 million in free cash flow after dividends, which is a 10% increase year over year at the midpoint.

我們的收集和處理部門的成長，加上我們費用的年度 CPI 調整，帶來了中等個位數的 EBITDA 成長，如頁面左上角所示。正如保羅所說，我們的資本預算為 1.7 億至 2 億美元。我們預計，由於絕對債務水準較低，2025 年我們的利息支出將會降低。因此，我們預計股息後將產生 2.5 億至 3 億美元的自由現金流，並在年比中位數成長 10%。

I'll finish my comments on slide number 7 titled: Flexible Approach to Shareholder Returns. In 2024, we were one of the only midstream companies that reduced absolute debt, acquired assets, paid an attractive dividend, and repurchased shares. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect to maintain our $0.90 per share dividend and allocate the remaining free cash flow after dividends to share repurchases and additional debt reduction.

我將在第 7 張投影片上結束我的評論，標題為「靈活的股東回報方式」。2024 年，我們是唯一一家減少絕對債務、收購資產、支付可觀股息並回購股票的中游公司之一。展望 2025 年，我們預計維持每股 0.90 美元的股息，並將股息後的剩餘自由現金流分配給股票回購和進一步減債。

In summary, we are very excited about 2025. Our capital budgets focused on the lowest cost natural gas basin in North America continue to get more efficient. This capital efficiency drives the double-digit increase in free cash flow after dividends in 2025 and positions us well for the incremental return of capital to shareholders that we believe drives long-term shareholder value.

總而言之，我們對 2025 年充滿期待。我們的資本預算集中在北美成本最低的天然氣盆地上，並且繼續變得更有效率。這種資本效率推動了 2025 年股息後的自由現金流實現兩位數增長，並使我們為股東實現增量資本回報做好了準備，我們相信這將推動長期股東價值。

With that operator, we are ready to take questions.

有了那位接線生，我們就可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Naomi Marfatia, UBS.

(操作員指示) 瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Naomi Marfatia。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is relating to data centers. Can you talk about AR plans as it relates to future data center deals and how does that translate into AM?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題與資料中心有關。您能談談 AR 計劃與未來資料中心交易的關係嗎？

Yeah, I think on the last call that AR had this morning, I think AR is well positioned with its transport portfolio and also just being in the region in Appalachia, that to the extent there are data center opportunities. We're in those discussions. Whether any of that comes to fruition, I think it's still early at this point and AM, being the midstream service provider, primary midstream service provider to AR, would of course be part of those discussions as well.

是的，我認為在 AR 今早的最後一次電話會議上，我認為 AR 憑藉其運輸組合處於有利地位，而且位於阿巴拉契亞地區，因此有數據中心的機會。我們正在進行這些討論。無論這些是否會實現，我認為現在還為時過早，而 AM 作為中游服務提供商，也是 AR 的主要中游服務提供商，當然也會參與這些討論。

So again, early on in some of those conversations, so we'll continue to keep everyone posted to the extent that materializes to anything.

因此，我們再次強調，在這些對話的早期階段，我們會繼續向大家通報任何具體進展。

Great, thanks. And my second question is relating to AR's increased production guide. Just wanted to understand if AR could return to higher activity levels in 2025 and if AR could possibly assume that will go activity going forward?

太好了，謝謝。我的第二個問題與 AR 的增加生產指南有關。只是想了解 AR 是否能夠在 2025 年恢復到更高的活動水平，以及 AR 是否可以假設其將在未來繼續活動？

Yeah, so for 2025, AR does have a drilling JV. So from a gross volume perspective, you will see increases in volumes at the AM level and the low-single-digit level, that combined with the CPI escalator on fees is what drives that kind of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth year over year in 2025.

是的，到 2025 年，AR 確實有一個鑽井合資企業。因此，從總量角度來看，您將看到 AM 等級和低個位數等級的交易量增加，再加上費用的 CPI 上升，將推動 2025 年 EBITDA 同比成長中等個位數。

So nice growth, nice low-digit growth at AM on the volume side, and nice cash flow growth in the mid-single digit side as well.

因此，AM 的銷量實現了良好的成長，低位數成長，現金流也實現了中等個位數成長。

Great, thanks. I'll leave it there. Have a great rest of your day.

太好了，謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。祝您剩餘的時光愉快。

Thank you. You as well.

謝謝。你也一樣。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Hey, this is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. Thanks for the question. First, I want to touch on the recent disclosures on the Veolia lawsuit. Can you provide any more details on the events in December and where AM is in the process? And then with the $19 million you received for attorneys' fees and costs, what can we expect AM to use this inflow of cash for? Can we expect higher buybacks throughout 2025 with the increase in cash? Thanks.

嘿，這是 Noah Katz，取代 Jeremy。謝謝你的提問。首先，我想談談有關威立雅訴訟案的最新披露。您能否提供有關 12 月份活動的更多細節以及 AM 的進展？那麼，有了您收到的 1900 萬美元律師費和費用，我們期望 AM 使用這筆現金流入來做什麼？隨著現金的增加，我們是否可以預期 2025 年的回購率會更高？謝謝。

Yeah, on your first question, no additional disclosure outside of what we've put in the 10-K, so still waiting through the appeal process in terms of they have the ability to appeal further, so no opinion in terms of where that plays out at this at this juncture.

是的，關於您的第一個問題，除了我們在 10-K 中提出的內容之外，沒有其他披露，因此仍然在等待上訴程序，他們是否有能力進一步上訴，因此對於目前這個關鍵時刻會如何發展，我們還沒有意見。

And then to the extent cash flow does come in from that lawsuit, depending on when that comes in, we'll of course analyze what makes sense from a capital allocation standpoint, but what would likely just be more of the same in terms of portfolio approach across debt pay down and buying back shares.

然後，就該訴訟產生的現金流而言，取決於現金流何時到來，我們當然會從資本配置的角度分析什麼是合理的，但就債務償還和回購股票的投資組合方法而言，什麼可能只是大同小異。

Sounds good, thanks for that. And maybe as a follow-up, just to get a bit deeper on the $85 million invested in water infrastructure in '25. Can you provide more details on this integrated water system in the Marcellus you're building? And what specific cost efficiencies you guys can benefit from? I don't know if you guys can provide any numbers around that at all. Thank you.

聽起來不錯，謝謝。或許作為後續行動，只是為了更深入了解 25 年在水利基礎設施上投資的 8,500 萬美元。您能否提供有關您正在建造的馬塞勒斯綜合供水系統的更多細節？你們可以從哪些具體的成本效益中受益？我不知道你們是否能提供有關該問題的任何數字。謝謝。

Yeah, so for the $85 million, it's really across a couple of projects. One is the integrated water system we talked about, building further to the south. The benefit is that from an AR perspective, it allows AR to develop the entire field across the liquids-rich corridor both in the northwest, southwest, southern portion. So a lot of areas and options for AR to develop.

是的，這 8500 萬美元實際上涉及幾個項目。一個是我們講的綜合水系，往更南邊建設。好處是，從 AR 的角度來看，它允許 AR 開發西北部、西南部和南部富含液體的走廊上的整個油田。因此，AR 有很多領域和選擇可供開發。

I think the benefit from an AM perspective is we also have a lot of legacy infrastructure in the southern portion and so to the extent AR does develop south, it should require less overall capital spend on infrastructure in that southern portion. So great project overall, I think, for the family, and looking forward to execute on that.

我認為從 AM 角度來看的好處是我們在南部地區也有很多遺留基礎設施，因此如果 AR 確實向南發展，那麼在南部地區基礎設施上需要的總體資本支出就會減少。我認為，對於這個家庭來說，這是一個非常棒的項目，我期待著執行它。

And then the other major water project is just continue to build out the backbone of the water system in the northern part of the play as well. So building the water system further across the entire acreage position.

另一個主要的水利工程是繼續建造該劇北部水利系統的主幹線。因此，進一步建造覆蓋整個土地利用的水系統。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Olivia Halferty, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的奧利維亞·哈爾弗蒂（Olivia Halferty）。

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. Maybe we'll stay on water for a moment. AM's water well service stepped up meaningfully in the quarter and the full year '25 guidance range implies continued growth here. Wondering if we can walk through drivers of the sequential and year-over-year step-ups and any impacts from the AR drilling partnership?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。也許我們會在水上停留一會兒。AM 的水井服務在本季度取得了顯著的成長，而 25 年全年指導範圍意味著該業務將繼續成長。想知道我們是否可以介紹一下連續和逐年增長的驅動因素以及 AR 鑽井合作夥伴關係的影響？

And then maybe looking longer term, how should we expect the water business to trend versus AR production activity?

那麼從更長遠的角度來看，我們應該如何預期水業務相對於 AR 生產活動的趨勢？

Yeah, so for the fourth quarter we did have a duck pad that AR talked about on its earnings call that was primarily completed in December, which drove the increased volumes in the fourth quarter really running with two completion crews. As we look forward to '25, we would expect a similar level of overall water volume compared to compared to '24.

是的，所以在第四季度，我們確實有一個 AR 在收益電話會議上提到的鴨場，該鴨場主要在 12 月完工，這推動了第四季度產量的增加，實際上是在兩個完工隊的幫助下。展望25年，我們預期整體水量將與24年持平。

We are servicing more wells, but the lateral lengths are a couple 1,000 feet shorter on average. So water feed overall and water use should be similar, year over year. And then in terms of cadence, as you think about '25, we talked about one of the duck pads being completed in the third quarter. So that's when you -- you'd likely be running two completion crews, call it end of the second quarter. So you should see probably a little bit more water in the second quarter versus the other quarters in the year.

我們正在維修更多的油井，但水平段長度平均短了數千英尺。因此，整體供水量和用水量應該逐年相似。然後就節奏而言，當你想到'25時，我們談到了在第三季度完成的其中一個鴨墊。所以那時你——你可能會運行兩個完工團隊，稱之為第二季末。因此，與今年其他季度相比，第二季度的水量可能會稍微多一些。

Got it. That's helpful color. And maybe pivoting to capital allocation, particularly on the back of the solid free cash flow outlook. How should we think about potentially accretive M&A competing with additional buybacks versus further potential deleveraging?

知道了。這是很有幫助的顏色。或許會轉向資本配置，特別是在穩健的自由現金流前景下。我們應該如何看待潛在的增值性併購與額外回購以及進一步的潛在去槓桿之間的競爭？

And then maybe on buybacks specifically, is there any way to frame up the right run rate of buybacks to trend under the $500 million authorization versus the $29 million executed this quarter?

然後也許具體到回購方面，有沒有辦法確定正確的回購運作率，以適應 5 億美元授權金額與本季執行的 2,900 萬美元之間的趨勢？

Yes, on the M&A, I mean we're certainly looking at all opportunities, in basin particularly. And as we look at those opportunities, we look at returns relative to paying down debt and buying back shares at AM as well. So to the extent organic M&A -- or sorry, M&A opportunities compete on a rate of return perspective, we'll certainly look at those.

是的，關於併購，我的意思是我們肯定會尋找所有的機會，尤其是在盆地方面。當我們尋找這些機會時，我們也會尋找與償還債務和回購 AM 股票相關的回報。因此，就有機併購（或抱歉，併購機會在回報率角度上競爭）的程度而言，我們肯定會考慮這些。

And then as it relates to buybacks, as we look at each kind of quarter's expected free cash flow, it's likely a 50-50 mix after dividends between share repurchases and further debt pay down is a good number to think about moving forward.

然後，就回購而言，當我們查看每個季度的預期自由現金流時，在股票回購和進一步償還債務之間進行股息後，其比例很可能是 50-50，這是一個值得考慮的好數字。

Got it, super helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

明白了，非常有幫助。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you. At this time I'll turn the floor back to Justin Agnew for closing remarks.

（操作員指示）謝謝。現在我將把發言權交還給賈斯汀·阿格紐 (Justin Agnew) 來做結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. Please feel free to reach out with any follow-up questions. Thanks.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路了。