Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Antero Midstream 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Director of Finance. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把會議交給財務長丹‧卡岑伯格。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream’s fourth-quarter investor conference call. We will spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights and then we will open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the home page of our website at anteromidstream.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today’s call. Today’s call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

感謝您參加 Antero Midstream 第四季投資者電話會議。我們將花幾分鐘時間回顧財務和營運方面的要點，然後進行問答環節。我還想引導您訪問我們網站 anteromidstream.com 的主頁，我們在那裡提供了單獨的收益電話會議演示文稿，我們將在今天的電話會議上進行回顧。今天的電話會議可能還會涉及一些非GAAP財務指標。有關這些措施的重要披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利新聞稿。

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有 Antero Midstream 的執行長兼總裁 Michael Kennedy；Antero Midstream 的財務長 Justin Agnew；以及 Antero Resources 的財務長 Brendan Krueger。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike Kennedy.

接下來，我將把電話交給麥克甘迺迪。

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. We recently closed the acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion. This bolt-on asset in the core of the Marcellus Shale adds over 400 highly economic undeveloped locations dedicated to Antero Midstream that immediately compete for development capital and infrastructure projects in 2026. This asset is a strategic fit in AM’s portfolio and will follow our just-in-time capital investment strategy that generates consistent and repeatable free cash flow. Looking back at 2025, we generated EBITDA growth of 7% year over year, which marked our 11th consecutive year of growth since our IPO in 2014. Free cash flow after dividends increased by 30% driven by capital-efficient organic growth and throughput from AR.

謝謝你，丹。各位早安。我們最近以 11 億美元的價格完成了 HG Midstream 的收購。這項位於馬塞勒斯頁岩核心地帶的附加資產，為 Antero Midstream 增加了 400 多個極具經濟價值的未開發地點，這些地點將在 2026 年立即展開開發資本和基礎設施項目的競爭。該資產與 AM 的投資組合具有策略契合度，並將遵循我們適時資本投資策略，從而產生持續且可重複的自由現金流。展望 2025 年，我們的 EBITDA 年成長 7%，這是自 2014 年上市以來我們連續第 11 年成長。股息後的自由現金流增加了 30%，這得益於資本高效的內生成長和應收帳款的增加。

In 2026, this EBITDA and free cash flow growth continues as we expect 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth. Looking ahead further to 2027, we expect another year of high-single-digit EBITDA growth, as we realize the full benefits of the acquisition and synergies including the integration of the water system and AR running a three-rig, two-completion-crew development program on our dedicated acreage. Justin will go into the details in his remarks but the integrated water system combined with our investment in dry gas assets provides high visibility into growth at AM. Importantly, we can achieve this growth with very modest capital budgets, which allows us to further expand our free cash flow after dividends in 2027.

2026 年，EBITDA 和自由現金流將持續成長，我們預計 EBITDA 將年增 8%，自由現金流將年增 11%。展望 2027 年，我們預計 EBITDA 將再次實現高個位數成長，因為我們將充分發揮收購和協同效應帶來的好處，包括整合水系統以及 AR 在我們專屬土地上開展三台鑽機、兩支完井作業隊的開發計劃。賈斯汀將在演講中詳細說明，但綜合水系統加上我們對乾氣資產的投資，為AM的成長提供了高度可見性。重要的是，我們可以用非常適度的資本預算來實現這一增長，這使我們能夠在 2027 年進一步擴大分紅後的自由現金流。

With that I will turn the call over to Justin.

接下來我會把電話交給賈斯汀。

Thanks, Mike. We will start with our fourth quarter and full-year highlights from slide number 4. Adjusted EBITDA was $285 million during the quarter, which is a 4% increase year-over-year driven by an increase in gathering and compression volumes. During the quarter, we generated $85 million of free cash flow after dividends, which we used to reduce leverage to 2.7 times and repurchased approximately $48 million of AM shares. For the full year, we generated a company record free cash flow after dividends of $325 million which is a 30% increased compared to 2024. This free cash flow growth driven by capital efficiencies leveraging our existing assets generated a 20% return on invested capital or ROIC in 2025.

謝謝你，麥克。我們將從第 4 張投影片開始，介紹第四季和全年的亮點。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.85 億美元，較去年同期成長 4%，主要得益於集輸和壓縮量的成長。本季度，我們在支付股息後產生了 8,500 萬美元的自由現金流，我們用這筆錢將槓桿率降低至 2.7 倍，並回購了約 4,800 萬美元的 AM 股票。全年來看，我們在支付股息後創造了公司創紀錄的自由現金流 3.25 億美元，比 2024 年增加了 30%。透過利用現有資產提高資本效率，推動自由現金流成長，預計到 2025 年將實現 20% 的投資資本回報率 (ROIC)。

Now let's move on to slide number 5 titled 2026 capital budget. In 2026 we have budgeted a capital investment of $190 million to $220 million. The capital budget includes our blocking and tackling well connect and water capital, construction and relocation of compression assets, high-pressure gathering trunk lines, and capital to integrate the water systems. It also includes expansion capital on the dry gas portion of the acreage to enhance downstream deliverability to multiple long-haul pipelines. These projects will unlock significant optionality and improve reliability in the dry gas regime that we don't currently have today.

現在我們來看第 5 張投影片，標題為「2026 年資本預算」。2026年，我們已將資本投資預算定為1.9億美元至2.2億美元。資本預算包括我們的基礎建設和水利設施建設、壓縮設備的建設和搬遷、高壓集水幹線以及水系統整合所需的資金。還包括對該地塊乾氣部分的擴建資金，以提高向下游多條長途管道的輸送能力。這些項目將釋放出目前我們所不具備的巨大選擇餘地，並提高乾氣領域的可靠性。

I'll finish my comments on slide number 6 titled 2026 guidance and outlook. This guidance includes the impact of the acquisition and divestiture with contributions to guidance based on closing dates of each transaction. For 2026, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA of over $1.2 billion or an 8% increase year over year. As Mike mentioned, after we finish the integration of the acquired water assets in 2026, we expect further growth in the water business in 2027, as we begin servicing locations on HG acquired acreage. After interest, a capital budget of $190 million to $220 million and an attractive $0.90 per share dividend, we are forecasting to generate free cash flow after dividends of $360 million or an 11% increase compared to 2025.

我將在題為“2026 年指導和展望”的第 6 張幻燈片上完成我的評論。該指導意見包括收購和剝離的影響，並根據每筆交易的完成日期對指導意見做出貢獻。我們預測，2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 將超過 12 億美元，比上年成長 8%。正如麥克所提到的，在我們於 2026 年完成對收購的水務資產的整合之後，我們預計 2027 年水務業務將進一步成長，因為我們將開始為 HG 收購的土地上的地點提供服務。在扣除利息、1.9 億美元至 2.2 億美元的資本預算以及每股 0.90 美元的誘人股息後，我們預計在支付股息後將產生 3.6 億美元的自由現金流，比 2025 年增長 11%。

Consistent with our historical approach, we expect a balanced return of capital program in 2026 in the form of debt reduction and share repurchases. This allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet with leverage in the low 3 times range. Core to AM strategy, the recent acquisition highlights the benefit of lower leverage and debt reduction, which allowed us to flex the balance sheet for the HG acquisition. This improves after tax accretion and, more importantly, allows the value to accrete to our existing shareholders without the need for equity financing.

與我們以往的做法一致，我們預計 2026 年將採取平衡的資本回報計劃，以減少債務和回購股票的形式進行。這使我們能夠保持穩健的資產負債表，槓桿率保持在 3 倍左右。此次收購是 AM 策略的核心，凸顯了降低槓桿率和減少債務的好處，這使我們能夠靈活調整資產負債表以進行 HG 收購。這提高了稅後收益，更重要的是，無需股權融資即可為現有股東創造更多價值。

In summary, we expect 2026 to be yet another year of EBITDA expansion, high capital efficiency, and, most importantly, double-digit free cash flow growth. Our organic growth strategy, coupled with a highly accretive acquisition that is fully financed, positions us well to build upon the momentum created in 2025.

總而言之，我們預計 2026 年將是 EBITDA 擴張、資本效率高，以及最重要的是自由現金流實現兩位數成長的另一年。我們的有機成長策略，加上一項資金充足的高增值收購，使我們能夠在 2025 年鞏固已取得的成就。

With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

操作員，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

約翰麥凱，高盛集團。

I want to start on the growth outlook. I understand '26 and '27 have some tailwinds from M&A in the headline numbers. Could you just walk us through a little bit what the longer-term growth trajectory looks like, let's say, once the assets are fully up and running if you guys are running a three-rig and two-crew program?

我想先談談成長前景。據我了解，2026 年和 2027 年的整體數據受到併購活動的利多影響。能否請您簡要介紹一下，如果你們經營一個擁有三台鑽機和兩個作業團隊的項目，那麼在所有資產全面投入運營後，長期增長軌跡會是什麼樣的？

Yeah, John, good question. That three-rig, two-crew program does provide continued growth even past '27, about a couple hundred million a day of growth on throughput volumes, so expect that to continue. So I think it'd still be in the mid- to high-single-digit EBITDA growth like we've experienced over our time our last 11 years and we'll have in '25 and '26. I think that's pretty fair to have generate those type of growth in '27 and beyond.

是的，約翰，問得好。這項三台鑽孔機、兩組作業人員的計畫即使在 2027 年以後也能持續成長，每天吞吐量成長約兩億，因此預計這種情況會持續下去。所以我認為，EBITDA 成長率仍將保持在個位數中高水平，就像我們過去 11 年所經歷的那樣，而且在 2025 年和 2026 年也將如此。我認為在 2027 年及以後實現這種增長是相當合理的。

That's clear. I appreciate it. And then on the AR side, you guys were talking about some growth upside plans. Could you just walk -- and you gave the color on the AR call, but maybe just again, like walk us through the thought process there. And then what that means for AM both from an EBITDA growth standpoint but also a capital standpoint if you move to that higher potential target?

這一點很清楚。謝謝。然後，在AR方面，你們談到了一些成長計畫。您能再解釋一下嗎——您在 AR 通話中提到了顏色，但也許可以再一次，例如帶我們了解當時的想法。那麼，如果AM的目標值達到更高的潛在目標，這對AM的EBITDA成長和資本運作分別意味著什麼呢？

Yeah, that's a great thing about it. There's really no capital for AM outside of what we just outlined, Justin did. It's right in the heart of our field. We already have all the big trunk lines. We have whatever pipelines are necessary.

是啊，這正是它的一大優點。除了我們剛才提到的那些之外，AM 確實沒有其他資金來源，Justin 說。它正處於我們領域的中心。我們已經擁有了所有的大型幹線。我們擁有所有必要的管道。

We have the water. A lot of this is dry gas. So it doesn't need further processing. So really nothing different than these capital budgets that we've experienced over the past couple of years for AM.

我們有水。其中很多是乾燥氣體。所以不需要進一步處理。所以，這和過去幾年AM的資本預算並沒有什麼不同。

For AR, AR is well positioned partly because of AM, but also because of firm transport optionality around dry gas being in the right part of the country, but also having the ability to transport our gas to the Gulf Coast for the LNG. So a lot of different demand centers coming AR's way. So AR's the likely company and most well positioned to meet the growing demand over the next 5 to 10 years.

對於 AR 而言，AR 的地理位置優越，部分原因是 AM，但也得益於其在乾氣運輸方面的可靠選擇，不僅因為乾氣位於該國合適的地區，還因為其有能力將天然氣運輸到墨西哥灣沿岸用於液化天然氣。因此，AR領域湧現出許多不同的需求中心。因此，AR公司很可能是最有能力在未來5到10年內滿足不斷成長的需求的公司。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Dan for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。我謹將會議交還給丹，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. Please reach out with any questions that you have. Have a good day.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。如有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。