Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. third quarter 2025 financial results conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your first speaker, Anders Trapp, Vice President of Investor Relations.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Autoliv, Inc. 2025 年第三季財務業績電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給第一位發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Lars. Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。歡迎大家參加我們的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。參加這次電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Mikael Bratt、財務長 Fredrik Westin 和我，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas, including our record-breaking third quarter sales and earnings, as well as our continued strategic investments to drive long-term success with Chinese OEMs. We also provide an update on market developments and the evolving tariff landscape impacting the automotive industry.

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們將重點介紹幾個關鍵領域，包括我們破紀錄的第三季銷售額和收益，以及我們為推動與中國原始設備製造商的長期成功而持續進行的戰略投資。我們還提供有關市場發展和影響汽車行業不斷變化的關稅情況的最新資訊。

Finally, our robust balance sheet and strong asset returns reinforce our financial resilience and support sustained high levels of shareholder returns. Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

最後，我們穩健的資產負債表和強勁的資產回報增強了我們的財務韌性，並支持持續的高水準股東回報。演示結束後，我們將回答您的問題。與往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上取得。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-news GAAP measures.

翻到下一張投影片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本次演講的組成部分，包括隨後的問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非新聞 GAAP 指標。

The reconciliations of historical use GAAP non-use GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC or at the end of this presentation. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at [3:00] PM CET. So please -- two questions per person. I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

歷史使用 GAAP 和非使用 GAAP 指標的對帳在我們的季度收益報告中披露，該報告可在 autoliv.com 上查閱，並在將向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 10-Q 表中或在本簡報的末尾提供。最後，我應該提到，本次電話會議預計將於歐洲中部時間下午 3:00 結束。所以請每個人問兩個問題。現在我將其交給我們的執行長 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I am pleased to share yet another record-breaking quarter, underscoring our strong market position. This success is a testament to the strength of our customer relationships and our commitment to continuous improvement as we navigate the complexities of tariffs and other challenging economic factors. We saw a significant sales growth, driven by higher than expected light vehicle production across multiple regions, especially in China and North America.

謝謝你，安德斯。請看下一張投影片。我很高興再次分享創紀錄的季度，這突顯了我們強大的市場地位。這一成功證明了我們與客戶關係的強大以及我們在應對複雜的關稅和其他具有挑戰性的經濟因素時對持續改進的承諾。我們的銷售額出現了顯著成長，這得益於多個地區（尤其是中國和北美）輕型汽車產量高於預期。

Our high growth in India continues, accounting for 1/3 of our global organic growth. I am pleased to highlight that our sales growth with Chinese OEMs has returned to outperformance driven by recent product launches and encouraging development.

我們在印度的高速成長仍在持續，占我們全球有機成長的三分之一。我很高興地強調，在近期產品發布和令人鼓舞的發展的推動下，我們與中國原始設備製造商的銷售成長已恢復到優異水準。

Looking ahead, we anticipate to significantly outperform light vehicle production in China during the fourth quarter. We improved our operating profit and operating margin compared to a year ago. This strong performance was primarily driven by well-executed activities to improve efficiency higher sales and the supplier compensation for an earlier recall.

展望未來，我們預計第四季中國輕型汽車產量將大幅成長。與一年前相比，我們的營業利潤和營業利潤率有所提高。這一強勁表現主要得益於有效執行的活動，以提高效率、增加銷售以及對早期召回的供應商補償。

We successfully recovered approximately 75% of the tariff cost occurred -- incurred during the third quarter and expect to recover most of the remaining portion of existing tariffs later this year. The combination of not yet recovered tariffs and the dilutive effects of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of approximately 20 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter.

我們成功收回了第三季發生的約 75% 的關稅成本，並預計今年稍後將收回現有關稅的大部分剩餘部分。尚未收回的關稅和收回部分的稀釋效應相結合，對我們本季的營業利潤率產生了約 20 個基點的負面影響。

We also achieved record earnings per share for the third quarter. Over the past five years, we have more than tripled our earnings per share mainly driven by strong net profit growth, but also supported by a reduced share count. Our cash flow remained robust despite higher receivables driven by higher sales and tariff compensations later in the quarter.

我們第三季的每股盈餘也創下了歷史新高。過去五年來，我們的每股盈餘成長了兩倍多，這主要得益於強勁的淨利潤成長，同時也受到股票數量減少的支持。儘管本季後期銷售額增加和關稅補償導致應收帳款增加，但我們的現金流依然強勁。

Our solid performance, combined with a healthy debt level ratio supports continuous strong shareholder return. We remain committed to our ambition of achieving [300 million to 500 million] annual in stock repurchases as outlined during our Capital Markets Day in June. Additionally, we have increased our quarter dividend to $0.85 per share, reflecting our confidence in our continued financial strength and long-term value creation.

我們穩健的業績加上健康的債務水準比率支持持續強勁的股東回報。我們仍然致力於實現我們在 6 月份資本市場日期間提出的每年 [3 億至 5 億] 股票回購的目標。此外，我們已將季度股息提高至每股 0.85 美元，這反映了我們對持續財務實力和長期價值創造的信心。

Expanding in China is key to strengthening Autoliv's innovation, global competitiveness and long-term growth. To support our growing -- support our growing partnerships with Chinese OEMs, we are investing in a second R&D center in China. In October, we announced a new important collaboration in China as illustrated on the next slide.

在中國的擴張對於增強奧托立夫的創新能力、全球競爭力和長期成長至關重要。為了支持我們與中國原始設備製造商日益增長的合作夥伴關係，我們正在中國投資第二個研發中心。十月份，我們宣佈在中國開展一項新的重要的合作，如下一張投影片所示。

We have signed a strategic agreement with Qatar the leading research institution setting standards in Chinese automotive sector. This partnership marks a new chapter in our commitment to shaping the future of automotive safety.

我們與中國汽車行業領先的標準制定研究機構卡達簽署了戰略協議。此次合作標誌著我們致力於塑造汽車安全未來的新篇章。

Together with Qatar, we aim to define the next generation of safety standards and enhance the safety on the roads in China and globally. We're also broadening our reach in automotive safety electronics as shown on the next slide.

我們的目標是與卡達共同製定下一代安全標準，提高中國乃至全球的道路安全。如下一張投影片所示，我們也正在擴大汽車安全電子產品的覆蓋範圍。

We recently announced our plan to form a joint venture with HSAE, a leading Chinese automotive electronics developer to develop and manufacture advanced safety electronics. The joint venture will concentrate on high growth areas in advanced safe electronics, including ECUs for active spa, hands-on detection systems for steering wind and the development and production of steering wheel switches.

我們最近宣布了與中國領先的汽車電子產品開發商 HSAE 成立合資企業的計劃，以開發和製造先進的安全電子產品。合資公司將專注於先進安全電子產品的高成長領域，包括主動安全氣囊的電子控制單元 (ECU)、轉向風向的手動檢測系統以及方向盤開關的開發和生產。

Through this new joint venture, we intend to capture more value from steering wheels and active diesel while minimizing CapEx and competence expansion enabling faster market entry with lower technology and execution risks.

透過這家新的合資企業，我們打算從方向盤和主動柴油引擎中獲取更多價值，同時最大限度地減少資本支出和能力擴張，從而以更低的技術和執行風險更快地進入市場。

Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide. Third quarter sales increased by 6% year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance relative to light vehicle production in Asia and South America. Along with favorable currency effects and tariff-related compensation.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹財務狀況。第三季銷量較去年同期成長 6%，這得益於亞洲和南美洲輕型汽車產量的強勁成長。伴隨有利的貨幣效應和關稅相關的補償。

This growth was partly offset by an unfavorable regional and customer mix. The adjusted operating income for Q3 increased by 14% to USD271 million from USD237 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 10%, 70 basis points better than in the same quarter last year. Operating cash flow was solid USD258 million, an increase of USD81 million or 46% compared to last year.

這一增長被不利的地區和客戶結構部分抵消。第三季調整後的營業收入從去年的2.37億美元成長14%至2.71億美元。調整後的營業利益率為 10%，比去年同期高出 70 個基點。經營現金流穩健，達2.58億美元，較去年同期增加8,100萬美元，增幅46%。

Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvement with particularly strong progress in direct costs and SG&A expenses. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues as we reduced our direct production personnel by 1,900 year-over-year. This is supported by the implementing our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization.

現在看下一張投影片。我們持續實現廣泛的改進，特別是在直接成本和銷售、一般及行政費用方面取得顯著進展。我們的直接勞動生產力繼續保持積極趨勢，因為我們的直接生產人員比去年同期減少了 1,900 人。這得歸功於我們實施的策略性舉措，包括自動化和數位化。

Our gross margin was 19.3%, and an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year. The improvement was mainly the result of direct labor efficiency, headcount reductions and compensation from a supplier. RD&E net cost costs rose both sequentially and year-over-year, primarily due to lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. Thanks to our cost saving initiatives, SG&A expenses decreased from the first half year level combined with the increased gross margin, this led to 70 basis points improvement in adjusted operating margin.

我們的毛利率為19.3%，年增130個基點。這項改善主要歸功於直接勞動力效率、員工人數減少以及供應商的補償。研發與工程淨成本較上月及年比均上升，主要由於特定客戶開發專案的時間安排導致工程收入下降。由於我們採取了成本節約舉措，銷售、一般及行政費用較上半年水準下降，加上毛利率有所提高，這導致調整後的營業利潤率提高了 70 個基點。

Looking now on the market development in the third quarter on the next slide. According to S&P Global data from October, global light vehicle production for the third quarter increased 4.6%. The exceeding the expectations from the beginning of the quarter by 4 percentage points.

下一張投影片介紹第三季的市場發展。根據標普全球10月的數據，第三季全球輕型汽車產量成長4.6%。比本季初的預期高出4個百分點。

Supported by the scrapping and replacement subsidy policy we continue to see strong growth for domestic OEMs in China. Light vehicle demand and production in North America has proven significantly more resilient than previously anticipated.

在報廢和更換補貼政策的支持下，我們持續看到中國本土原始設備製造商的強勁成長。事實證明，北美輕型車的需求和生產比之前預期的更具彈性。

In contrast, light vehicle production in other high content per vehicle market, namely Western Europe and Japan, declined by approximately 2% to 3%, respectively. The global regional light vehicle production mix was approximately 1 percentage point unfavorable during the quarter. Despite the important North American market showing a positive trend.

相較之下，其他單車產量較高的市場，即西歐和日本，輕型汽車產量分別下降了約2%至3%。本季度，全球各區域輕型汽車產量結構不利約 1 個百分點。儘管重要的北美市場呈現出正面的趨勢。

In the quarter, we did see call-off volatility continue to improve year-over-year and sequentially from the first half year. The industry may experience increased volatility in the fourth quarter, stemming from a recent fire incident at an aluminum production plant in North America. And production adjustments by key European customers in response to shifting demand. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation.

在本季度，我們確實看到取消波動性年比上半年持續改善。由於北美一家鋁生產廠最近發生火災，該產業第四季的波動性可能會加劇。歐洲主要客戶也根據需求變化調整生產。我們將在後面的演示中更詳細地討論市場發展。

Looking now on sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales were over USD2.7 billion the highest for the third quarter so far. This was around USD150 million higher than last year, driven by price, volume, positive currency translation effects and USD14 million from tariff-related compensations. Excluding currencies, our organic growth sales -- organic sales grew by 4%, including tariff costs and compensation. China accounted for 90% of our group sales.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹銷售成長情況。我們的綜合淨銷售額超過 27 億美元，為第三季迄今的最高水準。這比去年高出約 1.5 億美元，主要受價格、銷售、正面的貨幣轉換效應以及 1,400 萬美元的關稅相關補償的影響。不包括貨幣因素，我們的有機成長銷售額——有機銷售額成長了 4%，其中包括關稅成本和補償。中國占我們集團銷售額的90%。

Asia, including China, accounted for 20% and Americas was 33% and Europe for around 28%. We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide. Our quarterly sales were robust and exceeded our expectations, driven by strong performance across most regions, particularly in Americas, West of Asia and China.

其中，包括中國在內的亞洲佔20%，美洲佔33%，歐洲約佔28%。我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與輕型汽車產量相比的有機銷售成長。我們的季度銷售額表現強勁，超出了我們的預期，這得益於大多數地區（尤其是美洲、西亞和中國）的強勁表現。

Based on light vehicle production data from October, we underperformed slightly production by 0.7 percentage points globally as a result of a negative regional mix of 1.3 percentage points. We underperformed slightly in Europe, primarily due to an unfavorable model and customer.

根據 10 月的輕型車產量數據，由於各地區產量出現 1.3 個百分點的負成長，我們的全球產量表現略低於 0.7 個百分點。我們在歐洲的表現略差，主要是因為模式和客戶不利。

In the rest of Asia, we outperformed the market with 8 percentage points, driven primarily by strong sales growth in India and to a lesser extent, in South Korea. While the organic light vehicle production mix should continue to impact our overall performance in China, our sales to domestic OEMs grew by almost 23%, 8 percentage points more than their light vehicle production growth.

在亞洲其他地區，我們的表現超越市場 8 個百分點，主要得益於印度的強勁銷售成長以及韓國（程度較小）的銷售成長。雖然有機輕型汽車生產組合應該會繼續影響我們在中國的整體業績，但我們對國內原始設備製造商的銷售額增長了近 23%，比他們的輕型汽車產量增長率高出 8 個百分點。

Our sales development with the global customers in China was 5 percentage points lower tender light vehicle production development as our sales declined to some key customers, such as Volkswagen, Toyota and [Michelle].

我們與中國全球客戶的銷售發展比招標輕型車生產發展低 5 個百分點，因為我們對一些關鍵客戶的銷售額下降，例如大眾、豐田和[米歇爾]。

On the next slide, we show some key model launches. The third quarter of 25% or a high number of new launches, primarily in including China. Although some of these new launches in China remain undisclosed here, confidentiality, the new launches reflecting a strong momentum for Autoliv this important market.

在下一張投影片中，我們展示了一些關鍵的模型發布。第三季新上市數量佔 25% 或較高，主要集中在中國。儘管在中國推出的一些新產品仍未公開，但這些新產品反映了奧托立夫在中國這一重要市場的強勁發展勢頭。

The models displayed here feature Autoliv content per vehicle from USD150 to close to USD400. We're also pleased to have launched airbags and seatbelts on another small Japanese cars, this is the main (technical difficulty) Autoliv has historically had limited exposure to these segments in Iran. In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the [Onvo] L9 is the most significant. Higher content per vehicle is driven by front center airbags on five of these vehicles.

這裡展示的車型每輛車的 Autoliv 內容從 150 美元到接近 400 美元不等。我們也很高興能夠在另一款小型日本汽車上推出安全氣囊和安全帶，這是奧托立夫在伊朗歷來對這些領域接觸有限的主要（技術難題）。就奧托立夫的銷售潛力而言，[Onvo] L9 最為顯著。其中五輛車配備了前中央安全氣囊，從而提高了每輛車的氣囊容量。

Now looking at the next slide. I will now hand it over to Fredrik Westin.

現在看下一張投影片。現在我將把它交給 Fredrik Westin。

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials more in detail now on the line. So turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2024. The net sales were approximately $2.7 billion, representing a 6% increase.

謝謝你，米凱爾。我現在將在線上更詳細地談論財務問題。現在請翻到下一張投影片。這張投影片重點介紹了我們 2025 年第三季與 2024 年第三季相比的關鍵數據。淨銷售額約27億美元，成長6%。

The gross profit increased by $63 million and the gross margin increased by 130 basis points. The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly lower material costs positive effects from the higher sales and improved operational efficiency. This was partly offset by negative effects from recalls and warranty, depreciation and unrecovered tariff costs.

毛利增加6,300萬美元，毛利率增加130個基點。毛利成長的驅動因素主要是材料成本降低、銷售增加和營運效率提高的正面影響。這部分被召回和保固、折舊和未收回關稅成本的負面影響所抵消。

The adjusted operating income increased from $237 million to $271 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 70 basis points to [10.0%]. The reported operating income of $267 million was $4 million lower than the adjusted operating income.

調整後的營業收入從 2.37 億美元增至 2.71 億美元，調整後的營業利益率增加 70 個基點至[10.0%]。報告的營業收入為 2.67 億美元，比調整後的營業收入低 400 萬美元。

Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased 26% or by $0.48, where the main drivers were $0.29 from higher operating income from taxes and $0.08 from lower number of shares. This marks our ninth consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted earnings per share, underscoring the strength of our ongoing operational improvements and further bolstered by a reduced share count from our share buyback program.

調整後每股攤薄收益增加 26% 或 0.48 美元，主要驅動因素是稅收帶來的營業收入增加 0.29 美元以及股票數量減少 0.08 美元。這標誌著我們的調整後每股盈餘連續第九個季度成長，凸顯了我們持續營運改善的強勁勢頭，並進一步得益於我們股票回購計畫減少的股票數量。

Our adjusted return on capital employed was a solid 25.5%, and our adjusted return on equity was 28.3%. We paid a dividend of $0.85 per share in the quarter, and we repurchased shares for USD100 million and retired 0.8 million shares.

我們的調整後資本使用報酬率為 25.5%，調整後的股本報酬率為 28.3%。我們在本季支付了每股 0.85 美元的股息，並回購了 1 億美元的股票，同時註銷了 80 萬股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the third quarter of 2025, our adjusted operating income increased by $34 million. portion attributed with $43 million, mainly from higher organic sales and from the execution of operational improvement plans, supported by better call-off volatility.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的調整後營業收入橋。2025 年第三季度，我們的調整後營業收入增加了 3,400 萬美元，其中 4,300 萬美元主要來自更高的有機銷售額和營運改善計畫的執行，以及更好的取消波動性。

The out-of-period cost compensation was $8 million lower than last year. Costs for RD&E net and SG&A increased by $30 million, mainly due to lower engineering income. The net currency effect was $6 million positive, mainly from translation effects.

期外成本補償比去年減少了 800 萬美元。研發與工程淨成本和銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 3000 萬美元，主要原因是工程收入減少。淨貨幣效應為 600 萬美元，主要來自翻譯效應。

Last year's supplier settlement and this year's supplier compensation combined had a $29 million positive impact. The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of approximately 20 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter.

去年的供應商和解與今年的供應商賠償加起來產生了 2,900 萬美元的正面影響。未收回的關稅和收回部分的稀釋效應相結合，對我們本季的營業利潤率產生了約 20 個基點的負面影響。

Looking now at the cash flow on the next slide. The operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2025 totaled $258 million, an increase of $81 million compared to the same period last year, mainly as a result of higher net income, partly offset by $53 million negative working capital effects. The negative working capital was primarily driven by higher receivables, reflecting strong sales and delayed tariff compensation towards the end of the quarter.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的現金流。2025 年第三季的營運現金流總計 2.58 億美元，較去年同期增加 8,100 萬美元，主要由於淨收入增加，但 5,300 萬美元的負營運資本效應部分抵銷了這一影響。負營運資本主要是由於應收帳款增加所致，反映了本季末強勁的銷售和延遲的關稅補償。

Capital expenditures net decreased by $40 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3.9% versus 5.7% a year earlier. The lower level of capital expenditures net is mainly related to lower footprint CapEx in Europe and Americas and less capacity expansion in Asia. The free operating cash flow was $153 million, compared to $32 million in the same period the prior year from higher operating cash flow and the lower CapEx net. The cash conversion in the quarter, defined as free operating cash flow in relation to the net income was around 87%, in line with our target of at least 80%.

資本支出淨減少4000萬美元。資本支出淨額佔銷售額的 3.9%，去年同期為 5.7%。資本支出淨額較低主要與歐洲和美洲的足跡資本支出較低以及亞洲的產能擴張較少有關。自由經營現金流為 1.53 億美元，而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元，這是由於營運現金流較高且資本支出淨額較低。本季的現金轉換率（定義為自由經營現金流與淨收入之比）約為 87%，符合我們至少 80% 的目標。

Now looking at our trade working capital development on the next slide. The trade working capital increased by $197 million compared to the prior year, were the main drivers for $165 million in higher accounts receivables, $8 million in higher accounts payables and $40 million in higher inventories.

現在來看看下一張投影片中的貿易營運資本發展。貿易營運資本較前一年增加 1.97 億美元，是應收帳款增加 1.65 億美元、應付帳款增加 800 萬美元和庫存增加 4,000 萬美元的主要原因。

The increase in trade working capital is mainly due to increased sales and temporarily higher inventories. In relation to sales, the trade working capital increased from 12.8% to 13.9%. We view the increase in trade working capital is temporary as our multiyear improvement program continues to deliver results. Additionally, enhanced customer call of accuracy should enable a more efficient inventory management.

貿易營運資本的增加主要是由於銷售額增加和庫存暫時增加。相對於銷售額，貿易營運資本從 12.8% 增加到 13.9%。我們認為貿易營運資本的增加是暫時的，因為我們多年的改進計劃正在繼續取得成果。此外，增強客戶呼叫準確性可以實現更有效率的庫存管理。

Now looking at our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide. Autoliv's balanced leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation and sustained stakeholder value over time.

現在來看看下一張投影片中的債務槓桿率發展。奧托立夫的平衡槓桿策略體現了我們審慎的財務管理，能夠長期維持彈性、創新和持續的利害關係人價值。

The leverage ratio remains low at 1.3 times, below our target limit of 1.5 times and has remained stable compared to both the end of the second quarter and the same period last year. This comes despite returning $530 million to shareholders over the past 12 months. Our net debt increased by $20 million and the 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA was $41 million higher in the quarter.

槓桿率仍維持在1.3倍的低位，低於我們1.5倍的目標限度，與第二季末和去年同期相比保持穩定。儘管過去 12 個月已向股東返還了 5.3 億美元，但仍出現這種情況。我們的淨債務增加了 2000 萬美元，而本季 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 4,100 萬美元。

With that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.

說完這些，我就把它交還給你了，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide. The outlook for the global auto industry has improved call for North America and China. While the industry continues to navigate the trade volatility and other regional dynamics, S&P now forecast global light vehicle production to grow by 2% in 2025, following growth over -- of over 4% in the first nine months of the year.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。轉到下一張投影片。全球汽車產業前景有所改善，尤其是北美和中國。儘管汽車產業仍在應對貿易波動和其他地區動態，但標準普爾目前預測，繼今年前九個月全球輕型汽車產量增加超過 4% 之後，2025 年全球輕型汽車產量將增加 2%。

The outlook for the fourth quarter has significantly improved. Nevertheless, they still anticipate a decline in light vehicle production of approximately 2.7% in the quarter. In North America, the outlook for light vehicle production has been significantly upgraded driven by resilient demand and low new vehicle inventories. However, a recent fire incident at an aluminum production plant in North America may impact our customers.

第四季的前景已明顯改善。儘管如此，他們仍然預計本季輕型汽車產量將下降約 2.7%。在北美，受需求強勁和新車庫存較低的推動，輕型汽車生產前景顯著改善。然而，最近北美一家鋁生產廠發生的火災可能會影響我們的客戶。

For Europe, S&P forecast of 1.8% decline in light vehicle production for the fourth quarter despite some easing of US import tariffs. We continue to see downside risks for Europe, like the European light vehicle production, driven by announced production stoppage at several key customers.

對於歐洲，儘管美國進口關稅有所放寬，但標準普爾預測第四季輕型汽車產量將下降 1.8%。我們繼續看到歐洲面臨下行風險，例如歐洲輕型汽車生產，因為幾家主要客戶宣布停產。

In China, light vehicle production is expected to decline by 5%, primarily due to an exceptionally strong Q4 in 2024. Nevertheless, S&P anticipate sustained growth in Chinese LVP over the medium term, supported by favorable government policies for new energy vehicles, more relaxed out the loan regulations and increasing export volumes.

在中國，輕型汽車產量預計將下降 5%，主要原因是 2024 年第四季的銷售異常強勁。儘管如此，標普預計，在政府對新能源汽車的優惠政策、更寬鬆的貸款規定和不斷增長的出口量的支持下，中國電動車充電樁在中期內將持續增長。

The outlook for Japan Light vehicle production has improved as carmakers are increasingly shifting exports to markets outside the US, aiming to mitigate reduced export volumes to the US. In South Korea, domestic demand has been steadily recovering, while exports have also risen driven by increased shipments to other regions compensating for the decline in exports to the US.

由於汽車製造商越來越多地將出口轉向美國以外的市場，以減輕對美國出口量的減少，日本輕型汽車生產的前景有所改善。韓國國內需求穩步復甦，同時出口也因對其他地區的出貨量增加而有所增長，彌補了對美國出口的下降。

Now looking on our way forward on the next slide. We expect the fourth quarter of 2025 to be challenging for the automotive industry with lower light vehicle production and geopolitical challenges. However, our continued focus on efficiency should help offset some of these headwinds.

現在讓我們來看看下一張投影片的進度。我們預計，2025 年第四季對汽車產業來說將充滿挑戰，輕型汽車產量將下降，地緣政治挑戰也將加劇。然而，我們對效率的持續關注應該有助於抵消其中的一些不利因素。

Consistent with typical seasonal patterns, the fourth quarter is expected to be the strongest of the year. Despite the expected decline in global light vehicle production year-over-year, we foresee higher sales and continued outperformance, particularly in China. Unfortunately, we are also facing some year-over-year headwind.

與典型的季節性模式一致，預計第四季將是今年最強勁的季度。儘管預計全球輕型汽車產量將同比下降，但我們預計銷量將增加且業績將持續優異，尤其是在中國。不幸的是，我們也面臨一些年比不利因素。

Unlike the past three years, we do not expect out-of-period inflation compensation in the fourth quarter given the shift in the inflationary environment. We expect higher depreciation costs due to new manufacturing capacity to meet demand in the key regions and that the temporary decline in engineering income will persist, driven by the timing of specific customer development projects.

與過去三年不同的是，鑑於通膨環境的變化，我們預計第四季度不會出現超出預期的通膨補償。我們預計，為滿足關鍵地區的需求，新的製造能力將導致折舊成本上升，而且由於特定客戶開發專案的時間安排，工程收入的暫時下降將持續下去。

These factors combined in the reason for why we currently expect the full year adjusted operating margin to come in at the midpoint of the guided range. However, our solid cash conversion and balance sheet provides mentions and a robust foundation for maintaining high shareholder returns.

這些因素共同導致了我們目前預計全年調整後營業利潤率將達到指導範圍的中點。然而，我們穩健的現金轉換和資產負債表為維持高股東回報提供了堅實的基礎。

Turning to the next slide. This slide shows our full year 2025 guidance which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect (technical difficulty) 2025. As well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or changes in customer call of volatility or significant supply chain disruptions.

翻到下一張投影片。這張投影片展示了我們 2025 年全年的指導方針，其中不包括產能調整和反壟斷相關事項的影響。它基於 2025 年現行的關稅或貿易限制沒有實質變化（技術難度）。以及宏觀經濟環境沒有重大變化或客戶需求波動或重大供應鏈中斷的變化。

Our organic sales is expected to increase by around 3%. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10% to 10.5%. With only one quarter remaining of the year, we expect to be in the middle of the range. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD1.2 billion. We now expect CapEx to be around 4.5% of sales revised from the previous guidance of around 5%.

我們的有機銷售額預計將成長約 3%。調整後的營業利潤率預期約為 10% 至 10.5%。今年僅剩一個季度，我們預計將處於該範圍的中間位置。預計經營現金流約12億美元。我們現在預計資本支出將佔銷售額的 4.5% 左右，而先前的預測是 5% 左右。

Our positive cash flow and strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder return. Our full year guidance is based on a global light vehicle production growth of around 1.5% and a tax rate of around 28%. The net currency translation effects on sales will be around 1% positive.

我們的正現金流和強勁的資產負債表支持我們繼續致力於高水準的股東回報。我們的全年指引基於全球輕型汽車產量增加約 1.5% 和稅率約 28%。淨貨幣折算對銷售額的影響將為正 1% 左右。

Looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to [Lars].

請看下一張投影片。今天的收益電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想開放熱線回答分析師和投資者的提問。我現在把它交還給[拉爾斯]。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. You raised your light vehicle production forecast from down 1.5% to up 1.5%, but organic sales didn't change why aren't you seeing any benefit from the stronger production environment on your organic?

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。您將輕型汽車產量預測從下降 1.5% 上調至成長 1.5%，但有機銷售卻沒有變化，為什麼您沒有看到更強勁的生產環境為有機銷售帶來任何好處？

Yeah. Thanks for your question. So the -- there are a couple of components here. I mean, first one is that some of these adjustments that we also don't take into account are for past quarters. So some of the volumes have been raised in -- also in the first half, whereas we had already recorded our sales for that.

是的。謝謝你的提問。所以——這裡有幾個組件。我的意思是，首先，我們沒有考慮到的一些調整是針對過去幾季的。因此，部分銷售量在上半年有所增加，而我們之前已經記錄了這部分的銷售額。

So that doesn't -- so then we had a different outdoor underperformance in the first half of the year. So that's one part of the explanation. And then we also see a larger negative mix now after nine months and also expect that for the full year. That is close to 2 percentage points. This negative market mix, which is also one of the reasons. And that's even less unfavorable now than we saw at the quarter ago.

所以，這並不代表我們在今年上半年的戶外業務表現不佳。這就是解釋的一部分。九個月後，我們也看到負面因素增加，預計全年也將出現這種情況。這接近2個百分點。這種負面的市場組合，也是原因之一。現在的情況比上一季的情況還要好。

So those are some explanations. And then on top of that, we see that some of the launches in China have been a bit delayed and that they are not coming through fully in line with our expectations that we had here about a quarter ago. So those are the main reasons why you don't see that LVP estimate increase comes through on our organic sales guidance.

這些就是一些解釋。除此之外，我們發現中國的一些產品的發布有些延遲，而且沒有完全達到我們一個季度前的預期。因此，這些就是為什麼您沒有看到 LVP 預估成長體現在我們的有機銷售指導中的主要原因。

Got it. And then the margin in the quarter was very strong. I thought Q3 is typically your -- one of your weaker margins. Anything unusual in the quarter? I noticed you flagged supplier settlements. I kind of get the non-repeated bad news last year.

知道了。本季的利潤率非常高。我認為第三季通常是你們利潤率較弱的季度之一。本季有什麼異常狀況嗎？我注意到您標記了供應商結算。我有點明白去年沒有重複的壞消息。

Is the $15 million of supplier compensation additional good news, is that onetime in nature? How should we think of that or anything else that's maybe possibly onetime in nature in the quarter that drove the strong margin?

1500 萬美元的供應商補償是額外的好消息嗎？是一次性的嗎？我們該如何看待這一點，或者本季可能一次性推動利潤率強勁成長的其他因素？

Yeah. The $50 million there is a one time. It is compensation from a supplier for historical cost that we have versus our customers there. So it's onetime in the quarter here for previous costs that we have had. So I would say here also that I think what you saw in the quarter here was that we had slightly higher sales than expected.

是的。那裡的 5000 萬美元是一次性的。這是供應商對我們相對於客戶的歷史成本的補償。因此，這是我們本季中發生過的成本中的一次。因此，我在這裡還要說的是，我認為您在本季度看到的是我們的銷售額略高於預期。

So that was an important component, of course. But I think most importantly here is that we continue to see a very strong delivery of the internal improvement work that we are so focused on and that we have been focused on for a while leading to our targets here. So good work done by the whole poly team here across the whole value chain.

當然，這是一個重要組成部分。但我認為最重要的是，我們繼續看到我們如此關注的內部改進工作取得了非常強勁的進展，並且我們已經關注了一段時間，從而實現了我們的目標。整個聚合團隊在整個價值鏈上都做出了出色的工作。

Got it. Thanks for taking my question.

知道了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Björn Enarson, Danske Bank.

比約恩‧埃納森 (Björn Enarson)，丹麥銀行。

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. On your implied guidance for Q4 and also on your -- a little bit cautious comments on Q4, it looks like there are a little bit of temporary negative effects that you are talking about or should we extrapolate the Q4 trends looking into 2026? Or are you quite happy with the productivity work and also that call-offs looks again a little bit better. So should we have as a base assumption that you should progress again towards the midterm target of 12%? Or how should we look upon that? Thank you.

是的，你好。感謝您回答我的問題。關於您對第四季度的隱含指引以及您對第四季度的謹慎評論，您所說的似乎存在一些暫時的負面影響，還是我們應該推斷出 2026 年第四季的趨勢？或者您對生產力工作很滿意，取消工作看起來也好一點。那麼，我們是否應該以您應該再次朝 12% 的中期目標邁進作為基本假設？或者我們應該如何看待這一點？謝謝。

I think, I mean, first of all, that we feel confident when it comes to our ability to eventually get to our 12% target. No doubt about that. And I mean what you see here in the Q3, Q4 movement here is nothing if you read into that.

我認為，首先，我們對最終實現 12% 目標的能力充滿信心。毫無疑問。我的意思是，仔細觀察就會發現，Q3、Q4 的走勢並不算什麼。

I think, as I said before here, I mean, we see very good progress in terms of the activities that we control ourselves here, and we see really good traction when it comes to the strategic initiatives that we have outdone some time back. So good progress there.

我認為，正如我之前所說的那樣，我們在自己控制的活動方面取得了非常好的進展，而且我們在前段時間超越的戰略舉措方面也看到了非常好的牽引力。那裡進展很好。

I think -- when you look at Q4 -- over Q4 here, it's, I would say, more of, first of all, a normalization of the quarters here. I mean, is still the strongest quarter in the year. But of course, in the previous last two, three years here, it has been more pronounced since we had this out-of-period compensation that we referred to earlier here, which you will not see in the same way now in this quarter in Q4 2025. So that there is a difference there.

我認為——當你看第四季時——我想說，首先，這裡的第四季更像是一個季度的正常化。我的意思是，這仍然是今年最強勁的一個季度。但當然，在過去的兩三年裡，這種情況更加明顯，因為我們有了先前提到的這種期外補償，但在 2025 年第四季度，你不會再看到同樣的情況。所以那裡是有差別的。

And I would say also here, I mean, you have seen a little bit stronger Q3 when it comes to sales and there is a timing effect between Q3 and Q4 compared to when we looked into the second half year. So there is also a part of the explanation. But the bottom line here, we feel comfortable with our own progress here towards the target that we have.

我想在這裡也說一下，就銷售而言，您會看到第三季表現稍微強勁一些，而且與我們觀察下半年時相比，第三季和第四季之間存在時間效應。所以也有一部分可以解釋。但最重要的是，我們對自己在實現目標方面所取得的進展感到滿意。

And then maybe just to build on that, just one more detail on the fourth quarter. We do expect that we will have a slightly lower engineering income also in the fourth quarter, as you saw on the third quarter. This is temporary, and it's very dependent on how the engineering activities are with certain customers. And this should then also recover in 2026.

然後也許只是為了在此基礎上再補充一點關於第四季的細節。我們確實預計，第四季度的工程收入也會略有下降，正如您在第三季度看到的那樣。這是暫時的，並且很大程度上取決於針對特定客戶的工程活動。到 2026 年，這一數字也應該會恢復。

Okay. I saw that comment. And did you say it's likely to be recovered then in early next year then?

好的。我看到了那條評論。那麼您是否說過它很可能在明年年初恢復？

Or next year, overall, yeah, should be a recovery ratio that is more in line with -- or a bit higher now than what you see in the second half of this year. And that's, again, very dependent on engineering activities with certain customers and how they reimburse us.

或者明年，整體而言，復甦率應該與今年下半年的復甦率更加一致，或者略高一些。這又非常依賴與某些客戶的工程活動以及他們如何向我們償還。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Yeah. Because in some cases, it's built in, in the Peace pricing. In some cases, it's paid like engineering income specifically. Depending on how that mix looks over time, of course, you have some smaller fluctuation and that is really what we refer to.

是的。因為在某些情況下，它是內建在和平定價中的。在某些情況下，它的支付方式類似於工程收入。當然，根據該組合隨時間的變化情況，可能會出現一些較小的波動，這正是我們所指的。

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

好的。非常清楚。謝謝。

Tom Narayan, RBC.

湯姆·納拉揚，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe a follow-up to that last one. The Q4 guidance. You called out three headwinds, the less compensation on inflation I guess, the higher depreciation and then this engineering income. Just wondering if you could dimensionalize those three in terms of order of magnitude for Q4. I mean, we know the engineering income is temporary. The other two, I guess, depends on certain factors. Just trying to dimensionalize those three in terms of what is temporary and what continues. And then I have a follow-up.

你好。感謝您回答這個問題。也許是最後一個的後續。第四季指引。您指出了三個不利因素，我猜通膨補償越少，折舊越高，然後是工程收入。只是想知道您是否可以根據 Q4 的數量級對這三個進行維度化。我的意思是，我們知道工程收入是暫時的。我猜想，另外兩個取決於某些因素。只是試著從暫時性和持續性的角度對這三者進行維度化。然後我有一個後續問題。

Yeah. So I think the income, you can look at the Q3 on a year-over-year basis and how that -- as a percent of sales. And that, I think, is a pretty good indication also for how that could be in the fourth quarter. And that's the largest headwind we will have.

是的。因此，我認為，您可以查看第三季的同比收入以及其佔銷售額的百分比。我認為，這也很好地預示了第四季度的情況。這是我們面臨的最大阻力。

The next one is the fact that we had this out of period, the compensation from our customers related to inflation compensation last year that falls away this -- the second largest and the third largest is the depreciation expense increase.

下一個事實是，我們有這個超出期的情況，去年來自客戶的與通貨膨脹補償相關的補償已經消失——第二大和第三大是折舊費用的增加。

Okay. And then on the China commentary, we did see -- I think the ID is losing share in China due to some just government initiatives and whatnot. I would have thought that alone would maybe benefit you guys more? I know macro in China, the domestics are doing better than the global. So I see that. I understand that. But just wondering if the share loss at BYD's seen. I know you're under-indexed to them is benefiting you guys? Thanks.

好的。然後關於中國的評論，我們確實看到——我認為由於政府的一些舉措等等，身份證在中國的份額正在下降。我原以為僅此一點也許就能為你們帶來更多好處？我了解中國的宏觀情況，國內的表現比全球好。我明白這一點。我明白。但我只是想知道比亞迪的股票損失是否已經顯現。我知道你們對他們的低估對你們有好處嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean in the overall mix, of course, since we are selling components to them, and you see them -- their portion of the total market flattening out. Of course, it's supportive in the sense of measuring our outperformance relative to COEMs, LVP as such. So mathematically, yes, that effect that.

是的。當然，我的意思是從整體來看，由於我們正在向他們銷售零件，所以你會看到他們在整個市場中的份額正在趨於平穩。當然，從衡量我們相對於 COEM、LVP 等的優異表現的角度來看，它是有幫助的。所以從數學上來說，是的，有這樣的效果。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Mike Aspinall, Jefferies.

麥克‧阿斯皮諾爾，傑富瑞集團。

Thanks, and good [evening], Mikael. One first on India. It was 1/3 of the organic growth. Can you just remind us where we are in the shift in content per vehicle in India and how large India is in terms of sales now?

謝謝，晚上好，米凱爾。這是印度的第一次。這是有機成長的 1/3。您能否提醒我們一下印度每輛車的內容轉變情況以及印度目前的銷售規模有多大？

Yeah. I think we are see the strong development in India there and as I said, 1/3 of the growth in the quarter it's today around 5% of our turnover is coming from India. It's not long ago, it was around 2%. So a significant increase of importance there. And we have a very strong market share in India, 60%.

是的。我認為我們看到了印度的強勁發展，正如我所說，本季成長的 1/3，也就是今天我們約 5% 的營業額來自印度。不久前，這一比例還在2%左右。因此其重要性顯著增加。我們在印度擁有非常大的市場份額，達到 60%。

So of course, we are benefiting well from the volume growth you see there. And we're expecting India to continue to grow, and we have also invested in our industrial footprint there to be able to defend our market share and to capture the growth here. And content-wise, we expect it to go from it went from $120 in 2024 to roughly USD140 this year. So you have both content and LVP growth in India to look forward.

因此，我們當然會從您看到的銷售成長中受益匪淺。我們預計印度將繼續成長，我們也在那裡投資了我們的工業足跡，以便能夠捍衛我們的市場份額並抓住這裡的成長機會。從內容方面來看，我們預計它將從 2024 年的 120 美元漲到今年的約 140 美元。因此，您可以期待印度的內容和 LVP 成長。

And then we are to around $160 to $170 in the next couple of years.

然後在接下來的幾年裡，我們將達到 160 美元到 170 美元左右。

Great. Excellent. And one more. Just on the JV with [Hancheng] chain, who are you purchasing these items from before? Were you purchasing from Hancheng and now to JV or have you formed a JV with them and we're purchasing from someone else previously?

偉大的。出色的。還有一個。就與[韓城]連鎖店的合資而言，您之前是從誰那裡購買這些物品的？您之前是從韓城採購，然後轉而與韓城合資，還是您之前已經與他們成立了合資企業，而我們之前是從其他人那裡採購？

I mean they have been an important supplier to us in the past as well. And of course, we have worked with them and established a very good relationship there. I could say it hasn't been exclusively with them. We have a global supplier base here, but we see a great opportunity here to not only produce but also develop components for our future models and programs here, we work together here, both on development and manufacturing.

我的意思是他們過去也是我們的重要供應商。當然，我們已經與他們合作並建立了非常好的關係。我可以說這不是他們獨有的。我們在這裡擁有全球供應商基地，但我們在這裡看到了巨大的機遇，不僅可以生產，還可以開發我們未來車型和項目的零件，我們在這裡共同努力，進行開發和製造。

Okay. So they're moving, I guess, from a supplier and now you guys are going to be working together.

好的。所以我想，他們正在從供應商轉移，現在你們將要一起工作。

Yeah.

是的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Yeah. Hi, Mikael, just quickly on the China side. I know you mentioned subsidies. When you look at the NAV and the scrapping subsea, fleet is down 50% this year. Do you expect that to be extended to '26? Or is there going to be another step down? And I have a follow-up.

是的。你好，Mikael，簡單談談中國方面的情況。我知道您提到了補貼。當你查看 NAV 和報廢的海底船舶時，你會發現今年船隊數量下降了 50%。您預計期限會延長至 26 年嗎？或者說還會有進一步的降級？我還有一個後續問題。

Yeah. We I will say we are not speculating in that. So I guess it's anybody is yes here. But I think, overall, we definitely look very positively on China. And as we have mentioned here before, we are growing our share with the Chinese OEMs here and good development in the quarter here. And we're also investing in China as well here.

是的。我們要說的是，我們對此並不進行推測。所以我猜這裡的任何人都會回答是。但我認為，整體而言，我們對中國的看法絕對非常樂觀。正如我們之前提到的，我們在中國原始設備製造商中的份額正在不斷擴大，並且本季度取得了良好的發展。我們也在中國進行投資。

So as I mentioned in the presentation here earlier, I mean, we are investing in a second R&D center in Wuhan to make sure that we also continue to work closer with the broader base of customers there to adding capacity.

正如我之前在演講中提到的那樣，我們正在武漢投資第二個研發中心，以確保我們繼續與那裡更廣泛的客戶群更緊密地合作，以增加產能。

We talked about the JV of now here. And then also the partnership with Qatar care here is important steps here. So all in all, looking positively on China going forward here for sure. So subsidies or not, we will see. But overall, it's pointing in the right direction here.

我們在這裡討論了現在的合資企業。與卡達護理機構的合作也是重要的一步。總而言之，我們肯定對中國未來發展持樂觀態度。所以，有沒有補貼，我們拭目以待。但總體而言，它指向了正確的方向。

Got it. And then I think on the -- as you look at the European market, a lot of talk about price competition and imports coming in from Asia and tariffs, et cetera. How do you see the European market play out European auto market play out for 2026? Thanks.

知道了。然後我認為——當你觀察歐洲市場時，你會聽到很多關於價格競爭、來自亞洲的進口產品、關稅等等的討論。您如何看待 2026 年歐洲汽車市場的發展？謝謝。

Yeah. I think we wait to comment on '26 for the next quarterly earnings here when it's can for it. But as we have said here for the remainder of the year, we are cautious about the European market more from a demand point of view than anything else. I think -- that's really the main question mark around the market and anything else in terms of OEM reoffering or anything like that. I mean it's really the end consumer question.

是的。我認為我們應該等到 26 月可以發布下一季財報時再進行評論。但正如我們在今年剩餘時間裡所說的那樣，我們對歐洲市場持謹慎態度，更多的是從需求的角度。我認為——這確實是圍繞市場以及 OEM 重新提供或類似產品的任何其他問題的主要問號。我的意思是這實際上是最終消費者的問題。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)，沃爾夫研究公司。

Great. Thank you so much. My first question is actually a follow-up, I think, on Colin's question around the organic growth outlook, which is unchanged despite the better LDP. I'm not sure that I understood all the factors, but if we wanted to frame it as like growth above market, initially, you were going to grow 3% despite a shrinking market, now growing 3% in a market that would be growing 1.5%. Can you maybe just go back over the factors that are driving this different expectation for outperformance?

偉大的。太感謝了。我認為，我的第一個問題實際上是對科林關於有機成長前景問題的後續回答，儘管自民黨表現較好，但有機成長前景並未改變。我不確定我是否理解了所有因素，但如果我們想將其定義為高於市場的成長，那麼最初，儘管市場萎縮，你仍將成長 3%，現在在成長 1.5% 的市場中，你仍將成長 3%。您能否回顧一下導致這種不同預期的因素？

Yeah. In that sense, I mean the largest change over yeah, a couple of quarters here since we started the year is the negative market mix. So as I said, we now see a negative market mix for the full year of around 2 percentage points. and that has deteriorated over the course of the year. But that's the largest part.

是的。從這個意義上說，我的意思是，自今年年初以來的幾個季度中最大的變化是負面的市場組合。正如我所說，我們現在看到全年市場組合為負值約 2 個百分點，而這種情況在過去一年中有所惡化。但這是最大的部分。

Then we also have seen here in the third quarter, also the negative customer mix for us in mostly North America and Europe. So that's also a deviation to what we expected going into the year. And then the last one that I already mentioned before is that we see some delays on the new launches, in particular in China. So they're not coming through at the same pace that we had expected originally.

然後，我們也看到，在第三季度，我們的客戶結構也主要集中在北美和歐洲。因此，這也與我們對今年的預期有所不同。我之前提到的最後一點是，我們發現新產品的發佈出現了一些延遲，尤其是在中國。因此，他們並沒有按照我們最初預期的速度前進。

Understood. Thank you. And if I go back to your framework and your midterm margin targets. Can you just maybe remind us the drivers that will get you from the 10% to 10.5% this year towards the where are we tracking on some of those? And I did notice that you mentioned improved cold pull-offs accuracy, both sequentially and year-over-year. Is that something that you expect to continue and that will be helpful for that.

明白了。謝謝。如果我回到你的框架和你的中期利潤目標。您能否提醒我們，今年有哪些驅動因素將使您的成長率從 10% 提高到 10.5%，而我們正在追蹤其中的一些因素？我確實注意到您提到了冷拔精度的提高，無論是連續的還是逐年的。您是否希望繼續這樣做並且對此有所幫助？

The framework has not changed, as you would probably expect. So it's still -- if we take 2024 as the base point adjusted operating margin, we still expect 80 basis points improvement from the indirect head count reduction.

正如您可能預料的那樣，框架沒有改變。因此，如果我們以 2024 年為基點調整後的營業利潤率，我們仍然預期間接裁員將帶來 80 個基點的改善。

In the reported numbers here now, you don't see a movement in that, but we had about 260 employees from a labor law change in Tunisia that we now have to account for head count that distorts that number. You adjust for that, we would also have shown further progress on the indirect head count reduction. So that is well on track.

從現在報告的數字來看，你看不到任何變化，但是由於突尼斯勞動法的改變，我們有大約 260 名員工，現在我們必須對扭曲該數字的員工人數進行核算。如果您對此進行調整，我們還將顯示間接裁員方面的進一步進展。一切進展順利。

There was a 60 basis points from normalization of call-offs. That is developing well. We saw 94% call of accuracy here and also in the third quarter, which is an improvement on a year-over-year basis. We also talked about that we have decreased our direct head count by 1,900 people despite that organic growth was up 4% on a year-over-year basis. So that's tracking very well.

距離取消正常化還有 60 個基點。情況正在好轉。我們在這裡和第三季的準確率都達到了 94%，與去年同期相比有所提高。我們也談到，儘管有機成長率與去年同期相比上升了 4%，但我們的直接員工人數仍減少了 1,900 人。所以跟踪得非常好。

And then the remaining 90 basis points would be from growth component, where we are a little bit behind now this year as we laid or as you talked about before, and then from automation digitalization. And there again, you can see, I think, on the gross margin, even if you exclude the settlement here with the supplier, you can also see there that we are progressing well on that component.

剩下的 90 個基點將來自成長部分，正如我們之前提到的，今年我們在這方面有點落後，然後是自動化數位化。再次，我認為，您可以看到，在毛利率方面，即使您排除與供應商的結算，您也可以看到我們在該組件上進展順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jairam Nathan, Daiwa Capital Markets.

Jairam Nathan，大和資本市場。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to kind of go back to the announcement in out of China. Just wanted to understand the timing, it seems it kind of coincided with also the -- with the announcement of Adient, the zero gravity product. So just wonder is there -- is this the timing related to some -- a new business win or more opportunities there?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回顧一下中國發布的公告。只是想了解時間，似乎它也與零重力產品 Adient 的發佈時間有點吻合。所以只是想知道——這個時機是否與某些新業務的成功或更多機會有關？

You're talking about JV or ?

你指的是合資企業或？

The JV, the Qatar partnership as well as the kind of announced you kind of finalize the Adient gravity product.

合資企業、卡達合作夥伴關係以及宣布最終確定 Adient 重力產品。

I was going to say they're not connected at all as such because, I mean, the JV here is really to vertically integrate in an effective way together with the partner to gain a broader product offering here to say that we also yeah, more to our end customer, basically. Qatar is, of course, a development collaboration to make safer vehicles safer roads for everyone.

我本來想說他們根本沒有聯繫，因為我的意思是，這裡的合資企業實際上是與合作夥伴以有效的方式進行垂直整合，以獲得更廣泛的產品供應，也就是說，我們基本上也為我們的最終客戶提供更多產品。當然，卡達是一個發展合作組織，其目的是為每個人提供更安全的車輛和更安全的道路。

So it's including light vehicles, commercial vehicles and valuable radiuses, meaning 2-wheelers, et cetera. So the broad-based research collaboration there. And then the AGM, of course, is connected to the zero gravities. So I mean, yes, to some extent, of course, they are all about safety products as such, but they are not connected in any way.

因此，它包括輕型車輛、商用車輛和有價值的半徑，即兩輪車等等。因此，那裡有廣泛的研究合作。當然，年度股東大會與零重力有關。所以我的意思是，是的，在某種程度上，當然，它們都是關於安全產品本身，但它們之間沒有任何關聯。

Okay. And just a follow-up, I wanted to understand the lower CapEx. Is that something that can be maintained in as a percentage of sales into the future?

好的。順便問一下，我想了解一下較低的資本支出。這個比例在未來的銷售額中可以維持下去嗎？

Yeah. I think, I mean, we have been talking about this in the past also that our ambition is to bring down the CapEx levels in relation to sales compared to where we have been -- and we've been through a cycle here where we have investing a lot in our facilities around the world here, Europe, where we have consolidated and upgraded a number of plants in BI investments we talked about before, expanding capacity in China.

是的。我想，我的意思是，我們過去也一直在談論這個問題，我們的目標是降低與銷售額相關的資本支出水平，與我們過去的情況相比——我們已經經歷了一個週期，我們在世界各地的設施上投入了大量資金，在歐洲，我們整合和升級了我們之前談到的 BI 投資中的許多工廠，擴大了中國的產能。

We also upgraded in Japan, et cetera. So last couple of years here, we have invested heavily in upgrading our industrial footprint, and we are coming out now into a more normalized phase here, and that's why we can bring it down here. So we are not expecting to see CapEx jump up back in the near term here.

我們還在日本等地進行了升級。因此，過去幾年，我們投入巨資升級我們的工業足跡，現在我們正進入一個更正常化的階段，這就是我們能夠將其降低到這裡的原因。因此，我們預期短期內資本支出不會再上升。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Hampus Engellau, Handelsbanken.

Hampus Engellau，德國商業銀行。

Thank you very much. Two questions from my side. Maybe [just one] question, but if I remember correctly, you covered about 80% of the tariff costs in the second quarter, and the remaining 20% came in Q3, and now you're moving around 20% for Q3, you would get in Q4. Is the net effect like 100% compensation, if your account for the things you that came from second quarter to Q3? Or you still a net negative there on the margins?

非常感謝。我有兩個問題。也許[只有一個]問題，但如果我沒記錯的話，你們在第二季度覆蓋了大約 80% 的關稅成本，剩下的 20% 是在第三季度，現在你們在第三季度移動了大約 20%，你們將在第四季度獲得這些成本。如果您將第二季到第三季發生的事情考慮在內，那麼淨效應是否相當於 100% 的補償？還是你的利潤率還是負數？

Let's take the first that one. We are still net negative here, as we said, we have received some of the outstanding 20 in the second quarter [and Q3]. But most of it remains still. And then in the third quarter here, we got 75. So we have accumulated more outstandings from Q2 to Q3. But as we have indicated here, we still expect to get full compensation and catch up on this in the fourth quarter fully compensated. That's our expectations here. Of course, the work is ongoing here as we speak with debt, but that's the net result right now.

讓我們先來看一下。正如我們所說，我們目前仍處於淨負值狀態，我們在第二季度收到了一些未償還的 20[和 Q3]。但大部分仍保持靜止。然後在第三節，我們得到了 75 分。因此，我們從第二季到第三季累積了更多的未償債務。但正如我們在此指出的那樣，我們仍然希望獲得全額補償，並在第四季度全額補償。這就是我們的期望。當然，當我們談論債務時，這項工作仍在進行中，但這就是目前的最終結果。

Fair enough. And the last question was more related to from what you see today in terms of launches for 2026, maybe compared to 2025 if you have -- could share some light on that?

很公平。最後一個問題與您今天看到的 2026 年發射情況更相關，如果您有的話，可以與 2025 年進行比較——您能對此分享一些看法嗎？

I have no figure yet for '26 to share with you here. But I think in general terms, I mean, we have good order intake here to support our overall market position here. We see, however, some especially on the EV side, planned programs or launches being delayed or canceled here. So there are some reshuffling there. But what kind of impact that we have in '26 compared to '25, we are not ready to communicate that yet. But we, as I said, we have good order intake to support our market position.

我還沒有 26 年的數據可以在這裡與大家分享。但我認為，總體而言，我們在這裡有良好的訂單量來支持我們在這裡的整體市場地位。然而，我們看到一些計劃中的項目或發布，特別是在電動車方面，被推遲或取消。因此那裡存在一些改組。但是，與 25 年相比，26 年會產生什麼樣的影響，我們還沒有準備好傳達這一點。但正如我所說，我們有良好的訂單量來支持我們的市場地位。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

This is Winnie Yan for Edison. Thanks for taking the call. My first question is on the supplier contract that came out of GM, indicating maybe like a more -- a less favorable contract terms of suppliers on a go-forward basis.

我是愛迪生的 Winnie Yan。謝謝您接聽電話。我的第一個問題是關於通用汽車的供應商合同，這可能表明未來供應商的合約條款可能更加不利。

Just curious if this is something that's more isolated and more depends on like the OEM. Or do you see like heading into [2020] maybe a broader trend that can close potentially as a headwind heading to next year. And I have a follow up.

只是好奇這是否是更加孤立且更加依賴 OEM 的東西。或者您是否認為進入 [2020] 年可能會出現一種更廣泛的趨勢，而這種趨勢可能會在明年成為一種逆風。我還有後續行動。

Yeah. No, I don't want to comment specific customer contracts or conditions here. But of course, I mean, it's constantly ongoing development here in terms of what the OEMs wants to put into the contract. But I would say that I see good ability to manage those clauses and contracts that are put in front of us here. And I must say I don't feel any major concerns around more difficult situation. I think we are quite successful in negotiating and settling contracts with our customers here. So nothing exceptional there from our point of view, I would say.

是的。不，我不想在這裡評論具體的客戶合約或條件。但當然，我的意思是，就原始設備製造商想要在合約中寫入的內容而言，這裡正在不斷進行開發。但我想說，我看到了管理擺在我們面前的這些條款和合約的良好能力。我必須說，我並不擔心更困難的情況。我認為我們在與這裡的客戶談判和簽訂合約方面相當成功。所以我想說，從我們的角度來看，這並沒有什麼特別之處。

Got it. Thank you. And then on the Ford fire impact, you did mention some potential impacts into 4Q. So I was just curious if you can help us delineate that? Is that something to be concerned about? Or is it more of a negligible impact for you guys?

知道了。謝謝。關於福特火災的影響，您確實提到了對第四季度的一些潛在影響。所以我只是好奇您是否可以幫助我們描述這一點？這有什麼值得擔心的事嗎？或者這對你們來說影響微不足道？

Yeah. I think I mean every car that is not produced is not a good thing, of course, and especially the customer in question here. But I mean you have seen the announcement made by the OEMs here. And just as a reference here, I mean, the Ford 150 is around 1% of our global sales. And so we're so good about this manageable level from our point of view.

是的。我認為每輛未生產的汽車當然不是一件好事，尤其是對於這裡提到的客戶而言。但我的意思是你已經看到了這裡的 OEM 發布的公告。僅作為參考，我的意思是福特 150 約占我們全球銷量的 1%。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們對這個可控水平感到非常滿意。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

Hi. Great. Thank you for taking the question. I just wanted to just follow up on that prior question. The headlines on Experia yesterday causing some potential supply issues. Just how much of that of a potential risk have you seen or heard on that in the fourth quarter for European production?

你好。偉大的。感謝您回答這個問題。我只是想跟進一下之前的問題。昨天有關 Experia 的頭條新聞引發了一些潛在的供應問題。您看到或聽到的歐洲第四季生產的潛在風險有多大？

For the European production. No, I think it's too early to comment on that. I mean it's just a few days hours or most into the situation here. I think, first of all, I think we have a very good supply chain team that are a lot here and are managing through the situation here. We have been here before with supply chain cost gains.

供歐洲生產。不，我認為現在評論這個還為時過早。我的意思是，這裡的情況只需要幾天或幾個小時就可以了。我認為，首先，我們有一個非常優秀的供應鏈團隊，他們在這裡有很多人，並且正在管理這裡的情況。我們以前也遇到過供應鏈成本增加的情況。

And I would say, the last couple of years, there has been many topics here. So I mean, the team is well prepared to maneuver through it. And we'll see and come back on that, but I would say it's too early to be too granular or to detailed around. And as I said solid -- we don't see so much yet on the customers.

我想說，過去幾年，這裡出現了很多話題。所以我的意思是，團隊已經做好了充分的準備來應對這項挑戰。我們將拭目以待，然後再討論這個問題，但我想說，現在談論得太詳細或太過詳細還為時過早。正如我所說的那樣——我們還沒有看到太多關於客戶的情況。

Thank you. Just as a follow-up, I wanted to double-click on the China performance. So you did very well outperformance with the domestic OEMs. But in spite of that, the total China performance was negative 3 points even though the domestics are the clear majority, I think we were all a bit sure, I know you sort of unpacked this a bit before in one of the prior questions. But can you maybe just explain the dynamics of why even though you outperformed the domestic, the overall China performance was negative. And what -- can you explain what flips going forward that is leading you to say that your China growth going forward should outperform.

謝謝。作為後續，我想再次強調中國的表現。所以你們的表現比國內 OEM 表現更好。但儘管如此，中國市場的整體表現為-3個百分點，儘管國內市場佔絕對多數，我想我們都有點確定，我知道您之前在之前的一個問題中已經對此進行了解釋。但是，您能否解釋為什麼儘管您的表現優於國內市場，但中國市場的整體表現卻很差？您能否解釋一下未來會出現哪些變化，讓您認為中國未來的成長應該會表現優異？

Yeah. I mean we still guide for us, as we said before here, I mean, we believe that we will see improvements here in the quarter to come. And I think it's a really important milestone here what we reported on the COEM outperformance, which was really strong here in the quarter. But still, the global OEMs is the biggest majority of our total sales. And some of our customers here that are significant had a negative mix impact on us this quarter, unfortunately.

是的。我的意思是，我們仍然為我們提供指導，正如我們之前所說的那樣，我們相信我們將在下一季看到改善。我認為這是一個非常重要的里程碑，我們報告了 COEM 的優異表現，本季的表現非常強勁。但全球 OEM 仍然佔據我們總銷售額的最大份額。不幸的是，我們這裡的一些重要客戶本季對我們產生了負面影響。

So what was on the negative side here. But we don't see this as major trend shift here it's mix effect that we see from quarter-to-quarter. But I think the important takeaway here is that we see this strong growth development to the Chinese OEMs that is also growing their share of the total market. So that sets us up for our development in China over time.

那麼這裡的消極面是什麼呢？但我們並不認為這是重大的趨勢轉變，而是我們逐季看到的混合效應。但我認為這裡重要的一點是，我們看到中國原始設備製造商的強勁成長，在整個市場的份額也在擴大。這為我們在中國的長期發展奠定了基礎。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Given the time constraints, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now hand back to Mr. Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

由於時間限制，問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言時間交還給麥可‧布拉特先生，請他作最後發言。

Thank you very much, Lars. Before we conclude today's call, I want to reaffirm our commitment to meeting our financial targets. We remain focused on cost efficiency, innovation, quality, sustainability and mitigating tariffs. As of this ongoing market headwinds, we anticipate strong fourth quarter performance. Our fourth quarter call is scheduled for Friday, January 30, 2026. Thank you for your attention on to the next time. Stay safe.

非常感謝，拉爾斯。在我們結束今天的電話會議之前，我想重申我們致力於實現財務目標的承諾。我們仍然專注於成本效益、創新、品質、永續性和降低關稅。由於市場逆風持續存在，我們預期第四季業績將表現強勁。我們的第四季電話會議定於 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五舉行。感謝您的關注，期待下次再見。注意安全。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。謝謝。