Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ally Financial first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sean Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Ally Financial 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。現在,我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管 Sean Leary。請繼續。

  • Sean Leary - Head of IR

    Sean Leary - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning, and welcome to Ally Financial's first quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, our CEO, Michael Rhodes; and our CFO, Russ Hutchinson, will review Ally's results before taking questions. The presentation will reference can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, ally.com. Forward-looking statements and risk factor language governing today's call are on slide 2.

    謝謝你,伊麗莎白。早安,歡迎參加 Ally Financial 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天上午,我們的執行長 Michael Rhodes;我們的財務長 Russ Hutchinson 將在回答問題之前審查 Ally 的表現。簡報可參考我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係部分。今天電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險因素語言在第 2 張投影片上。

  • GAAP and non-GAAP measures pertaining to our operating performance and capital results are on slide 3 and 4. As a reminder, non-GAAP or core metrics are supplemental to and not a substitute for US GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations can be found in the appendix.

    與我們的經營業績和資本結果有關的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標在第 3 和第 4 張投影片。提醒一下,非公認會計準則或核心指標是美國公認會計準則指標的補充,而不是替代。定義和對帳可以在附錄中找到。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給麥可。

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. Before diving into the details of our first quarter performance, I'd like to take a moment to share a few key perspectives about our path forward.

    謝謝你,肖恩。大家早安,感謝大家參加電話會議。在深入探討我們第一季業績的細節之前,我想花點時間分享一些關於我們未來發展的關鍵觀點。

  • As I approach my one-year anniversary as CEO of Ally, I cannot be more energized about our future. Since day one, my focus has been keeping culture at the core of everything we do, ensuring that we have the right talent for Plus Ford shaping our strategy for the future and aligning our people around that strategy, while delivering results through strong execution.

    當我擔任 Ally 執行長即將迎來一週年之際,我對我們的未來充滿信心。從第一天起,我的重點就是將文化置於我們所做的一切的核心,確保我們擁有合適的人才來為 Plus Ford 制定未來策略,並圍繞該策略協調我們的員工,同時透過強有力的執行來取得成果。

  • As I reflect on these past 12 months, A few things have become clear. First, do it right is not just a catchphrase. It's embedded in our culture, creating a meaningful and direct impact on everything we do.

    當我回顧過去的 12 個月時,有些事情變得清晰起來。首先,「把事情做好」不只是一句口號。它深深植根於我們的文化,對我們所做的一切產生有意義且直接的影響。

  • This April, Fortune Magazine again recognized as one of the best 100 companies to work for. While awards are not our goal, this latest acknowledgment reinforced the culture of Ally is unique.

    今年4月,再次被《財星》雜誌評選為最適合工作的100家公司之一。雖然獎項不是我們的目標,但最新的認可強化了 Ally 獨特的企業文化。

  • I am humbled by the feedback. 90% of our colleagues believe that Ally is a great place to work, over 30 percentage points higher than the US average. I've seen firsthand how results like this can materialize in tangible ways, including how we show it for our customers and the value it creates for shareholders.

    我對於這些回饋感到很慚愧。 90% 的同事認為 Ally 是一個理想的工作場所,比美國平均高出 30 多個百分點。我親眼目睹了這樣的成果如何以實際的方式實現,包括我們如何向客戶展示它以及它為股東創造的價值。

  • Over the past year, we have also strengthened and solidified our leadership team, identifying key talent, both internally and externally, is critical to ensure we are positioned to navigate challenges and seize opportunities.

    在過去的一年裡,我們也加強和鞏固了我們的領導團隊,確定內部和外部的關鍵人才對於確保我們能夠應對挑戰和抓住機會至關重要。

  • Another thing that's become clear to me is the competitive advantage created by the Ally brand. We built a strong emotional connection to our customers, a connection rooted in a history of consistently doing things right. This commitment continues to set us apart, and we have seen clear evidence of our brand strength. leading the way in our peer set.

    我清楚地認識到的另一件事是 Ally 品牌所創造的競爭優勢。我們與客戶建立了強烈的情感聯繫,這種聯繫根植於我們始終如一地做正確的事情的歷史。這項承諾繼續使我們脫穎而出,並且我們已經看到了我們品牌實力的明顯證據。在同行中處於領先地位。

  • Our Net Promoter Score is well ahead of the industry averages and our positive brand social sentiment is nearly 90%, almost double our banking peers. This favorability reflects the trust and loyalty that our customers place in us, which is not something we take for granted.

    我們的淨推薦值遠高於行業平均水平,我們的品牌社會情緒積極性接近 90%,幾乎是我們銀行同行的兩倍。這種好感反映了客戶對我們的信任和忠誠,這並不是我們想當然的事。

  • A key aspect of our success is a differentiated approach to building and maintaining the Ally brand. In fact, just last week, we proudly announced a multiyear partnership with the WNBA, establishing Ally is the official banking partner of the league.

    我們成功的關鍵因素是採用差異化的方法來打造和維護 Ally 品牌。事實上,就在上週,我們很自豪地宣布與 WNBA 建立多年合作夥伴關係,確立 Ally 為該聯盟的官方銀行合作夥伴。

  • We have been at the center of the rapid rise in women's sports since the beginning, and this partnership underscores the power of our brand and our commitment. The final item has become more apparent to me as I settle into the CEO role is the importance of focus.

    自一開始,我們就處於女子運動迅速崛起的中心,這次合作凸顯了我們品牌的力量和我們的承諾。當我擔任執行長一職時,我更清楚地意識到最後一點,那就是專注的重要性。

  • We've talked a lot about how we're becoming a more focused company to transform Ally into a stronger institution, one that is better positioned to compete and deliver compelling returns. This strategy is simplifying our organization, allowing us to prioritize resources to win in areas where we have demonstrated competitive advantage, deep relationships, and relevant scale.

    我們已經多次討論如何成為一家更專注的公司,將 Ally 轉變為更強大的機構,一個更有能力參與競爭並提供令人信服的回報的機構。這項策略簡化了我們的組織,使我們能夠優先分配資源,在我們已經展示出競爭優勢、深厚關係和相關規模的領域中取得勝利。

  • Our 3 core franchises, Dealer Financial Services, Corporate Finance and Deposits remain strong with tremendous runway ahead. We are committed to further investing in these businesses for sustainable growth and long-term success as we see meaningful opportunities for accretive organic expansion. Coupled with disciplined expense and capital management, we continue to see a clear path to attractive returns given the strength of these franchises.

    我們的三大核心特許經營業務,即經銷商金融服務、企業融資和存款業務依然保持強勁,未來發展前景廣闊。我們看到了增值有機擴張的重大機會,因此我們致力於進一步投資這些業務,以實現永續成長和長期成功。再加上嚴格的支出和資本管理,鑑於這些特許經營權的實力,我們繼續看到一條獲得可觀回報的清晰道路。

  • With this clarity of purpose and commitment or objectives, we are well positioned to execute and deliver meaningful shareholder value. During periods of macroeconomic uncertainty like we're in today, the power of focus is more critical as we allocate resources, where we have deep expertise, strong relationships and relative scale to successfully navigate these challenges, including the impact of tariffs.

    有了明確的目的和承諾或目標,我們就能很好地實現並創造有意義的股東價值。在當今宏觀經濟不確定的時期,當我們分配資源時,專注的力量更為重要,我們擁有深厚的專業知識、牢固的關係和相對的規模,可以成功應對這些挑戰,包括關稅的影響。

  • With that context of the journey ahead, let's turn to Page 4 to discuss our financial results. In the first quarter, Ally delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.58, core pretax income of $247 million and adjusted net revenue of $2.1 billion, reflecting solid execution across each of our core businesses. Net interest margin for the quarter was 3.35%, up 2 basis points compared to the fourth quarter. in line with our expectations to start the year.

    在了解了未來的發展背景後,讓我們翻到第 4 頁來討論我們的財務表現。第一季度,Ally 的調整後每股收益為 0.58 美元,核心稅前收入為 2.47 億美元,調整後淨收入為 21 億美元,反映出我們各項核心業務的穩健執行。本季淨利差為3.35%,較第四季上升2個基點。符合我們年初的預期。

  • As we shared in January, the full year trajectory of margin expansion will not follow a straight line on a quarter-to-quarter basis. However, we are confident in the direction. Russ will cover this in more detail later, but the takeaway is this. Our results within the quarter highlight the opportunities within our franchises, reinforce our market-leading positions and are in line with full year guidance we provided in January.

    正如我們在一月份所分享的,全年利潤率擴張軌跡不會按季度呈直線增長。但我們對於方向充滿信心。Russ 稍後會更詳細地介紹這一點,但重點如下。本季的業績凸顯了我們特許經營權內的機遇,鞏固了我們的市場領先地位,並與我們一月份提供的全年指導一致。

  • Before discussing results, there are a few notable items from the quarter to highlight. First, our results reflect the transfer of our credit card business to held for sale at the end of the quarter. These impacts have been adjusted out of our core metrics for the period.

    在討論結果之前,本季有幾件值得關注的事情需要強調。首先,我們的業績反映了我們的信用卡業務在本季末轉移到持有待售狀態。這些影響已從我們該時期的核心指標中調整出來。

  • The transaction successfully closed on April 1 and we remain committed to ensuring a smooth transition for our colleagues and customers. I would like to take a moment to express my gratitude to our entire team and for CardWorks for getting this deal across the finish line.

    交易於 4 月 1 日成功完成,我們將繼續致力於確保同事和客戶的順利過渡。我想花一點時間向我們整個團隊和 CardWorks 表達我的謝意,感謝他們促成了這筆交易。

  • The sale of our credit card business has allowed us to further strengthen our balance sheet. As we previously disclosed, in March, we executed a repositioning transaction avoiding a portion of our available-for-sale portfolio.

    出售信用卡業務使我們的資產負債表進一步加強。正如我們之前所揭露的那樣,我們在三月進行了重新定位交易,避免了部分可供出售的投資組合。

  • We completed a second similar transaction later in the quarter. These strategic moves reduce interest rate risk and immediately increase net interest income. These outcomes reflect careful and prudent management of our exposure to rate risk, helping support the sustainability of our returns over time.

    我們在本季晚些時候完成了第二筆類似的交易。這些策略性舉措降低了利率風險並立即增加了淨利息收入。這些結果反映了我們對利率風險敞口的謹慎和審慎管理,有助於支持我們長期回報的可持續性。

  • As we said in January, we continue to be disciplined in how we manage capital, prioritizing investment in the business and eventually share repurchases. Let's turn to Page 5 to discuss our market-leading franchises. Within our Auto Finance business, consumer originations of $10.2 billion were driven by 3.8 million applications, our highest quarterly application volume ever, once again underscoring the strength of our dealer relationships and the scale of our franchise. This scale enables us to be highly selective in the loans we book, optimizing both pricing and credit.

    正如我們在一月份所說的那樣,我們將繼續嚴格管理資本,優先投資業務並最終回購股票。讓我們翻到第 5 頁來討論一下我們市場領先的特許經營權。在我們的汽車金融業務中,380 萬份申請推動了 102 億美元的消費者貸款,這是我們有史以來最高的季度申請量,再次凸顯了我們與經銷商的良好關係以及特許經營的規模。這種規模使我們能夠高度選擇性地預訂貸款,從而優化定價和信貸。

  • I am encouraged by the trends we're seeing in application flow to further strengthen and grow our position as the leading bank auto finance lender in the country. Originated yield of 9.8% increased 17 basis points from the prior quarter.

    我對我們在申請流程中看到的趨勢感到鼓舞,這將進一步加強和發展我們作為國內領先的銀行汽車金融貸款機構的地位。起源收益率為 9.8%,較上一季增加 17 個基點。

  • Notably, 44% originations were made up of our highest credit quality tier, which will continue to drive strong risk-adjusted returns for the years ahead. As we discussed, we expect our origination mix to shift over time particularly from the fourth quarter where nearly half of our originations were made up of our highest credit quality tier.

    值得注意的是,44% 的貸款來自我們最高的信用品質層級,這將在未來幾年繼續推動強勁的風險調整回報。正如我們所討論的,我們預計我們的發起組合將隨著時間的推移而發生變化,特別是從第四季度開始,我們的近一半的發起都由我們最高的信用品質層級組成。

  • Our ability to dynamically adjust price and risk appetite for emerging trends allows us to modify origination strategies for differing interest rate and credit environments.

    我們能夠根據新興趨勢動態調整價格和風險偏好,這使我們能夠根據不同的利率和信貸環境修改發起策略。

  • On the insurance side, written premiums of $385 million represent an increase of 9% year-over-year. As we benefited from new relationships, growth in P&C exposure and synergies within our auto finance team. Our insurance team now serves over 6,000 dealers in United States and Canada. The average number of Ally F&I insurance products sold by each of our dealers has increased to 2.2. That's the highest since our IPO.

    在保險方面,已承保保費為 3.85 億美元,年增 9%。我們從新的關係、財產和意外傷害險業務的成長以及汽車金融團隊內部的綜效中受益。我們的保險團隊目前為美國和加拿大的 6,000 多家經銷商提供服務。我們每家經銷商銷售的 Ally F&I 保險產品平均數量已增加至 2.2 種。這是我們首次公開募股以來的最高水準。

  • On the P&C side, dealer inventory insurance exposure grew by 30% year-over-year. I'm very pleased with the growth of our business and the alignment that we have between auto insurance only enhances the value proposition we offer to our dealer network.

    在財產和意外險方面,經銷商庫存保險風險敞口年增 30%。我對我們的業務成長感到非常高興,我們在汽車保險方面的協調只會增強我們為經銷商網路提供的價值主張。

  • In Corporate Finance, we delivered another strong quarter with pretax income of $76 million and a 25% ROE. This business has consistently demonstrated resilience across economic cycles. The robust relationships we have with private equity sponsors and asset-based lenders has enabled us to grow the business at attractive returns while prudently managing risk. We again ended the quarter with 0 net charge-offs, demonstrating the quality of our loan book. As we have said, this is not a 0 loss business, and we expect some normalization.

    在企業融資方面,我們又取得了強勁的季度業績,稅前收入達到 7,600 萬美元,淨資產收益率達到 25%。該業務在各個經濟週期中始終表現出韌性。我們與私募股權發起人和資產貸款人建立的穩固關係使我們能夠在審慎管理風險的同時以誘人的回報發展業務。本季結束時,我們再次出現零淨沖銷,證明了我們貸款帳簿的品質。正如我們所說,這不是一項零虧損業務,我們期待某種程度的正常化。

  • We see opportunities to drive prudent organic growth within our current verticals and are actively exploring new verticals to generate incremental accretive business. Turning to our digital bank. We continue to invest in delivering best-in-class digital experiences and products to grow customer value proposition beyond rate. In March, Fortune Magazine again recognized us as one of the most innovative companies for 2025. This recognition is a testament to our culture, our relentless obsession with the customer and our ability to disrupt the industry.

    我們看到了在當前垂直領域推動審慎有機成長的機會,並正在積極探索新的垂直領域以創造增量增值業務。轉向我們的數位銀行。我們將繼續投資於提供一流的數位體驗和產品,以超越價格提升客戶價值主張。三月份,《財星》雜誌再次將我們評為2025年最具創新力的公司之一。這項認可證明了我們的文化、我們對客戶的不懈關注以及我們顛覆產業的能力。

  • Related to our deposits franchise, we proudly serve a total of 3.3 million customers with balances reaching $146 billion at the end of the quarter. Balances were up nearly $3 billion quarter-over-quarter as we harvested seasonally higher levels of money in motion and continue to add customers. Like last year, we expect tax payments to result in lower deposits in the second quarter and are aiming for approximately flat balances for the full year, aligned with what's needed to support the asset side of our balance sheet.

    關於我們的存款業務,我們自豪地為總共 330 萬客戶提供服務,本季末的存款餘額達到 1,460 億美元。由於我們收穫了季節性較高水準的流動資金並繼續增加客戶,餘額比上一季增加了近 30 億美元。與去年一樣,我們預計第二季的稅收將導致存款減少,並希望全年餘額大致持平,與支持資產負債表資產方的需求保持一致。

  • During the quarter, we saw strong flows from existing customers. This enabled us to move liquid savings rates down 20 basis points during the quarter despite no move in the Fed funds since December. Notably, 92% of retail deposits are FDIC insured, underscoring the strength and stability of our deposit base. Deposits represent nearly 90% of our funding profile, highlighting the 15-year evolution of the largest digital-only bank in the US

    本季度,我們看到現有客戶的流量強勁成長。儘管自 12 月以來聯邦基金利率沒有變動,但這使我們能夠在本季將流動儲蓄利率下調 20 個基點。值得注意的是,92% 的零售存款受到聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 承保,這凸顯了我們存款基礎的實力和穩定性。存款占我們資金結構的近 90%,彰顯了美國最大的純數位銀行 15 年的發展歷程

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Russ.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給拉斯。

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Page 6. In the first quarter, net financing revenue, excluding OID, was approximately $1.5 billion, in line with both the prior year and the prior quarter. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, net interest income was impacted by two fewer days in the period, lower average commercial auto balances, soft lease remarketing activity and the full quarter impact of repricing floating rate assets and liquid deposits following the rate changes in December.

    謝謝你,麥可。大家早安。我將從第 6 頁開始。第一季度,不包括 OID 的淨融資收入約為 15 億美元,與去年同期和上一季持平。與上一季相比,淨利息收入受到期內營業天數減少兩天、平均商業汽車餘額下降、租賃再行銷活動疲軟以及 12 月份利率變動後浮動利率資產和流動存款重新定價對整個季度的影響的影響。

  • Looking ahead, we are well positioned to grow net financing revenue through retail auto yield expansion, our portfolio shift toward higher-yielding asset classes and repricing our deposits lower. Together, these factors are expected to more than offset the revenue impact from the sale of our credit card business.

    展望未來,我們已做好準備,透過擴大零售汽車收益率、將投資組合轉向收益更高的資產類別以及降低存款價格來增加淨融資收入。綜合起來,這些因素預計將超過我們出售信用卡業務所帶來的收入影響。

  • GAAP other revenue of $63 million included a $495 million pretax loss related to securities repositioning, which has been excluded from adjusted metrics. Adjusted other revenue of $571 million was up over 10% year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum across diversified revenue streams, including insurance, smart auction and our consumer auto pass-through programs. GAAP provision expense of $191 million was down $316 million year-over-year, primarily driven by the release of the credit card reserves following its transfer to held for sale.

    6,300 萬美元的 GAAP 其他收入包括與證券重新定位相關的 4.95 億美元稅前損失,該損失已從調整後的指標中排除。調整後的其他收入為 5.71 億美元,年成長超過 10%,反映出多元化收入來源的強勁勢頭,包括保險、智慧拍賣和我們的消費者汽車轉手計畫。依照美國通用會計準則計算的撥備支出為 1.91 億美元,較上年同期減少 3.16 億美元,主因是信用卡儲備金轉為持有待售後釋出。

  • Adjusted provision expense of $497 million was down $10 million year-over-year driven by lower retail auto NCOs, slightly lower coverage rates, offset by reserve builds for balanced growth. In Retail auto net charge-offs declined $32 million year-over-year. While delinquencies remain elevated, we continue to see consistently strong trends in flow to loss rates more on this shortly.

    調整後的撥備支出為 4.97 億美元,年減 1,000 萬美元,原因是零售汽車 NCO 減少、覆蓋率略有下降,但為實現平衡成長而建立的儲備金抵消了這一影響。零售汽車淨沖銷額年減 3,200 萬美元。儘管拖欠率仍然很高,但我們仍然看到損失率持續呈現強勁趨勢,稍後將對此進行詳細介紹。

  • GAAP noninterest expense of $1.6 billion included a write-down of goodwill associated with the transfer of card assets to held for sale as well as $9 million of deal-related expenses, both of which have been excluded from adjusted metrics.

    16 億美元的 GAAP 非利息支出包括與將卡片資產轉為持有待售相關的商譽減損以及 900 萬美元的交易相關費用,這兩項費用均已從調整後的指標中排除。

  • Excluding the impact of the credit card sale, expenses were up approximately 8% quarter-over-quarter and 2% year-over-year primarily driven by the highest first quarter of weather-related losses in our history. During the quarter, net weather losses totaled $58 million with 80% of claims occurring over a three day stand in March and related to a single weather system that impacted Texas and Missouri and other states.

    不計信用卡銷售的影響,支出環比增長約 8%,年增 2%,這主要是由於我們歷史上第一季天氣相關損失最高。本季度,淨天氣損失總計 5,800 萬美元,其中 80% 的索賠發生在 3 月的三天內,與影響德克薩斯州、密蘇裡州和其他州的單一天氣系統有關。

  • Controllable expenses, which exclude insurance losses, commissions and FDIC fees were down approximately 3% year-over-year, demonstrating our commitment to cost discipline.

    可控費用(不包括保險損失、佣金和 FDIC 費用)年減約 3%,顯示了我們對成本控制的承諾。

  • Turning to tax. During the quarter, we recognized a GAAP tax benefit of $59 million, which was primarily driven by losses associated with the securities repositioning transactions. On a GAAP basis, we generated a loss per share of $0.82 for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.58.

    談到稅收。本季度,我們確認了 5,900 萬美元的 GAAP 稅收收益,這主要由於與證券重新定位交易相關的損失。根據 GAAP 計算,本季我們每股虧損 0.82 美元。調整後每股收益為 0.58 美元。

  • Moving to Page 7. Net interest margin, excluding OID, of 3.35% was up 2 basis points from the prior quarter and in line with expectations from January. NIM excluding OID, is up 16 basis points year-over-year. During the quarter, earning asset yields decreased 16 basis points compared to the prior quarter. primarily driven by the full quarter impact of repricing floating rate assets from the December rate cut and softer lease remarketing proceeds.

    移至第 7 頁。不包括 OID 的淨利差為 3.35%,較上一季上升 2 個基點,與 1 月的預期一致。不包括 OID 的 NIM 年成長 16 個基點。本季,生息資產收益率較上一季下降16個基點。主要受 12 月降息和租賃再行銷收益疲軟對浮動利率資產重新定價對整個季度的影響。

  • Cost of funds declined 20 basis points versus the prior quarter and 39 basis points versus the prior year, more than offsetting the impact from lower asset yields. We continue to optimize pricing by further lowering liquid deposit rates by an incremental 20 basis points late in the quarter, the full impact of which will be felt in the second quarter. In addition, we are benefiting from favorable dynamics in the CD portfolio as more than $12 billion of CDs with yields of 4.8% matured in the first quarter. migrating into lower-yielding CDs and liquid savings. This migration will continue to be a meaningful tailwind as approximately 95% of the CD portfolio matures this year.

    資金成本較上一季下降 20 個基點,較上年同期下降 39 個基點,足以抵銷資產收益率下降的影響。我們將繼續優化定價,在本季末將流動存款利率進一步降低 20 個基點,其全面影響將在第二季顯現。此外,我們也受惠於存款證投資組合的良好動態,第一季有超過 120 億美元的存款證到期,收益率為 4.8%。轉向收益較低的存單和流動性儲蓄。由於今年約有 95% 的 CD 投資組合到期,這種遷移將繼續發揮重要的推動作用。

  • We have included additional details on CD maturities in the appendix section of the earnings presentation. We're pleased with our cumulative 60% beta through the first quarter and remain confident in our ability to achieve target beta of around 70%. We are well positioned for margin expansion and sustainably higher NIM over the medium term.

    我們在收益報告的附錄部分提供了有關 CD 到期日的更多詳細資訊。我們對第一季累積 60% 的貝塔值感到滿意,並且對我們實現 70% 左右的目標貝塔值的能力充滿信心。我們已做好準備,在中期內擴大利潤率並持續提高淨利差。

  • Turning to Page 8. CET1 of 9.5% represents $3.7 billion of excess capital above our SCB minimum. On a fully phased-in basis for AOCI, CET1 for the period would have been 7.3%, an increase of 20 basis points from the prior quarter. During the quarter, there were a few moving pieces impacting capital. The transfer of credit card assets to held for sale added 20 basis points to CET1 during the quarter.

    翻到第 8 頁。9.5% 的 CET1 代表比我們的 SCB 最低標準高出 37 億美元的超額資本。在 AOCI 全面實施的基礎上,本期間的 CET1 將為 7.3%,比上一季增加 20 個基點。本季度,有幾個變動因素影響了資本。本季度,信用卡資產轉為持有待售資產導致 CET1 增加了 20 個基點。

  • The sale of card closed and added another 20 basis points to CET1 after the quarter closed. So in total, the sale of card generated 40 basis points of CET1, resulting in a pro forma CET1 of 9.7%, 7.5% on a fully AOCI phased-in basis.

    該卡銷售結束,並在季度結束後為 CET1 增加了 20 個基點。因此,總體而言,信用卡銷售產生了 40 個基點的 CET1,從而產生了 9.7% 的備考 CET1,在完全 AOCI 分階段實施的基礎上為 7.5%。

  • During the quarter, 23 basis points of the card capital was redeployed into 2 securities repositioning transactions. In total, we sold lower-yielding available-for-sale securities with an amortized cost of $4.6 billion for proceeds of $4.1 billion, recognizing a pretax loss of $495 million, which will be earned back through higher net interest income over time.

    本季度,23個基點的卡片資本被重新部署到2筆證券重新配置交易。總體而言,我們出售了收益較低的可供出售證券,攤銷成本為 46 億美元,收益為 41 億美元,確認了 4.95 億美元的稅前損失,這些損失將隨著時間的推移透過更高的淨利息收入彌補。

  • Proceeds from both sales were reinvested in securities at current market rates, resulting in a portfolio with an overall lower duration. These securities portfolio repositionings have helped us to reduce interest rate risk, be marginally less liability sensitive and protect against volatility in tangible book value.

    兩次銷售所得收益均以當前市場利率重新投資於證券,從而形成整體持續時間較短的投資組合。這些證券投資組合的重新定位幫助我們降低了利率風險,略微降低了負債敏感性,並防止了有形帳面價值的波動。

  • Taken together with the sale of card and the securities repositioning, we expect our continued earnings expansion to support our continued investment in the growth of our core franchises and eventual share repurchases.

    結合卡片的銷售和證券的重新定位,我們預計我們的持續獲利擴張將支持我們對核心特許經營權成長的持續投資以及最終的股票回購。

  • At this point, we are not expecting additional securities repositioning transactions. We believe that we have addressed the areas of the portfolio that offered the most compelling combination of risk mitigation and net interest margin benefit. During the quarter, the final phasing of CECL have a 19 basis point impact to CET1. Earlier this week, we announced our quarterly dividend of $0.30 for the second quarter of 2025, which remains consistent with the prior quarter.

    目前,我們預計不會有額外的證券重新定位交易。我們相信,我們已經解決了投資組合中提供最引人注目的風險緩解和淨利差收益組合的領域。在本季度,CECL 的最終分階段實施對 CET1 產生了 19 個基點的影響。本週早些時候,我們宣布了 2025 年第二季的季度股息為 0.30 美元,與上一季保持一致。

  • Excluding the impacts of AOCI, adjusted tangible book value per share of $47 is up more than 2x from 2014.

    排除 AOCI 的影響,調整後的每股有形帳面價值為 47 美元,比 2014 年增加了 2 倍以上。

  • We remain focused on growing tangible book value per share and driving shareholder value through disciplined capital management in the years ahead. Let's turn to Page 9. Credit quality trends remain encouraging. The consolidated net charge-off rate was 150 basis points, a decline of 9 basis points to the prior quarter and a decline of 5 basis points to the prior year. losses in our credit card portfolio for the full quarter are included in our consolidated net charge-off rate.

    未來幾年,我們將繼續致力於提高每股有形帳面價值,並透過嚴格的資本管理來推動股東價值。讓我們翻到第 9 頁。信貸品質趨勢依然令人鼓舞。合併淨沖銷率為 150 個基點,較上一季下降 9 個基點,較上年下降 5 個基點。我們整個季度的信用卡組合損失已計入我們的合併淨沖銷率。

  • Retail auto net charge-offs of 212 basis points were down 22 basis points quarter-over-quarter and down 15 basis points year-over-year. This represents the first year-over-year decline since 2021, reflecting our pricing and underwriting actions, moderating inflation and stability in used vehicle prices. While the first quarter typically outperforms 4Q due to seasonality we are seeing less of a benefit quarter-over-quarter due to larger monthly loan payments. We believe these dynamics are resulting in a slightly different seasonality curve, more specifically, a shallower decline in the first half of the year and a less steep increase in the back half of the year.

    零售汽車淨沖銷額為 212 個基點,較上季下降 22 個基點,較去年同期下降 15 個基點。這是自 2021 年以來首次同比下降,反映了我們的定價和承保行動、通膨緩和以及二手車價格的穩定。雖然由於季節性因素,第一季的表現通常優於第四季度,但由於每月貸款支付額較大,我們看到季度環比收益較小。我們認為這些動態導致季節性曲線略有不同,更具體地說,上半年下降幅度較小,下半年成長幅度較小。

  • On the bottom left, 30-plus day all-in delinquencies decreased 69 basis points from the prior quarter and were up 11 basis points to the prior year. This all-in view aligns with how we manage the business from an operational and loss mitigation perspective. The increase in the all-in delinquency metric is partially driven by deliberate servicing actions that result in increased delinquency churn but have consistently driven lower losses.

    左下角,30 天以上全拖欠率較上一季下降 69 個基點,較上年同期上升 11 個基點。這種全方位的觀點與我們從營運和減少損失的角度管理業務的方式一致。整體拖欠率指標的上升部分是由於故意的服務行為導致拖欠率上升,但持續降低了損失。

  • Since 2019, we've seen improvement in customer payment behavior among our delinquent borrowers. The proportion of customers making payments within each delinquency bucket has increased. Customers three payment past due that made at least one full monthly payment during the quarter is 73% higher versus 2019. While those customers for payments past due are now twice as likely to make a payment. This higher payment activity is resulting in favorable low to loss rates, reinforcing our confidence that losses will normalize below 2% over time.

    自 2019 年以來,我們看到拖欠貸款的借款人的還款行為有所改善。在每個拖欠率區間內付款的客戶比例增加。本季逾期三筆付款但至少全額支付一次月費的客戶數量比 2019 年高出 73%。而那些逾期付款的客戶現在付款的可能性是原來的兩倍。這種更高的支付活動導致了有利的低損失率,增強了我們的信心,即損失將隨著時間的推移趨於正常化到 2% 以下。

  • We remain encouraged by the vintage delinquency trends shown on the bottom right. As the benefit of vintage dynamics are clearly playing out in loss trends, we expect to remove this chart from our earnings step going forward, but we'll continue to report vintage delinquency data in the 10-Q and 10-K.

    右下角顯示的老式拖欠趨勢仍然令我們感到鼓舞。由於復古動態的優勢在損失趨勢中明顯顯現,我們預計將此圖表從我們未來的收益步驟中刪除,但我們將繼續在 10-Q 和 10-K 中報告復古拖欠數據。

  • Moving to Page 10. Consolidated coverage decreased 18 basis points this quarter, while the retail auto coverage rate decreased 3 basis points. The decrease in the consolidated coverage rate was driven by the reserve release associated with the transfer of the card business to held for sale at the end of the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect the consolidated coverage rate to modestly increase over time driven by asset remixing as we run off our mortgage portfolio while growing our retail auto and corporate finance assets with higher risk-adjusted returns.

    移至第 10 頁。本季綜合覆蓋率下降了 18 個基點,零售汽車覆蓋率下降了 3 個基點。合併覆蓋率的下降是由於本季末將卡片業務轉為持有待售業務而釋放的儲備金所致。展望未來,我們預計,隨著我們用完抵押貸款組合,同時增加具有更高風險調整回報率的零售汽車和企業金融資產,在資產重組的推動下,綜合覆蓋率將隨著時間的推移而小幅上升。

  • The change in the retail auto coverage rate for the period was favorably impacted by vintage trends, actual and expected delinquency flows and the release of the remaining hurricane reserve overlay established last year. However, the favorable trends in the credit quality were partially offset by elevated levels of overall delinquency and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

    該期間零售汽車保險覆蓋率的變化受到了復古趨勢、實際和預期拖欠流量以及去年建立的剩餘颶風儲備覆蓋的釋放的積極影響。然而,信貸品質的良好趨勢被整體拖欠率的上升和持續的宏觀經濟不確定性所部分抵消。

  • As we have said before, we do not forecast reserve releases, and they are not incorporated into our mid-teens return guidance, but we continue to be encouraged by the trends of the overall portfolio.

    正如我們之前所說,我們不會預測儲備釋放,而且它們也沒有納入我們的中等水平回報指導中,但我們仍然對整體投資組合的趨勢感到鼓舞。

  • Moving to Page 11 to review auto segment highlights. Pretax income of $375 million was $105 million lower year-over-year, primarily driven by lower lease gains and lower commercial auto balances. As illustrated on the bottom left, retail auto portfolio yields excluding the impact from hedges, was up 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

    前往第 11 頁查看汽車細分市場的亮點。稅前收入為 3.75 億美元,較上年同期減少 1.05 億美元,主要原因是租賃收益和商業汽車餘額減少。如左下角所示,不包括對沖影響的零售汽車投資組合收益率季比上升了 2 個基點。

  • Seasonal factors such as higher liquidations typically experienced in the first quarter of the year have driven increased premium amortization, which impacted yield in the quarter as expected. In addition to typical seasonality, March saw strong consumer demand leading to higher sales and accelerated premium amortization.

    季節性因素,例如通常在第一季經歷的較高清算率,推動了保費攤銷的增加,正如預期的那樣影響了本季度的收益率。除了典型的季節性因素外,三月消費者需求強勁,導致銷售額增加,保費攤提加速。

  • Our originated yield of 9.8% was up 17 basis points quarter-over-quarter driven by a shift in our origination mix down tier, generating strong risk-adjusted returns. As the overall credit environment improves, we will carefully evaluate the curtailment actions that we have taken since 2022.

    我們的起源收益率為 9.8%,環比上升 17 個基點,這得益於我們的起源組合下移,產生了強勁的風險調整回報。隨著整體信貸環境的改善,我們將仔細評估自2022年以來採取的削減措施。

  • The shift in mix will occur gradually over time and be informed by front book performance and the evolving macroeconomic environment, including the impact of recently announced tariffs. These trends are on the bottom right.

    業務組合的轉變將隨著時間的推移逐漸發生,並受到前帳簿表現和不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境(包括最近宣布的關稅的影響)的影響。這些趨勢位於右下角。

  • This quarter, we recognized losses of $19 million on lease remarketing. As communicated in January, we expected lease remarketing gains to be pressured by mix headwinds, more specifically, the impact of a small number of models that are generating losses at termination. Notably, 2 models accounted for the entirety of remarketing losses within the quarter.

    本季度,我們在租賃再行銷方面確認了 1,900 萬美元的損失。正如一月份所傳達的那樣,我們預計租賃再行銷收益將受到混合不利因素的壓力,更具體地說,是少數在終止時產生虧損的車型的影響。值得注意的是,兩個品牌佔據了本季全部再行銷損失。

  • However, performance improved throughout the quarter, even for these loss-generating models as auction values stabilized or improved. Looking ahead, the weaker performing units represent a smaller mix of future terminations.

    然而,隨著拍賣價值的穩定或提高,即使這些虧損車型的業績在整個季度都有所改善。展望未來,業績較弱的單位代表未來解約的比例較小。

  • Additionally, the average carrying value at termination for these weaker performing units will be lower going forward. While lease gains will always fluctuate based on trends in used values, we do not expect first quarter trends to continue.

    此外,這些績效較差的單位終止時的平均帳面價值將來也會更低。雖然租賃收益總是會根據二手價值的趨勢而波動,但我們預計第一季的趨勢不會持續下去。

  • Turning to insurance on Page 12. Core pretax income of $17 million was down $36 million year-over-year driven by weather losses. Elevated losses overshadowed strong top line growth in earned premiums, which increased $19 million year-over-year.

    翻到第 12 頁討論保險。核心稅前收入為 1,700 萬美元,受天氣損失影響,較去年同期下降 3,600 萬美元。損失的增加掩蓋了已賺保費的強勁增長,保費收入同比增長了 1,900 萬美元。

  • Total written premiums of $385 million were down $5 million quarter-over-quarter and up $31 million year-over-year. Growth in P&C written premiums of $37 million year-over-year are supported by new relationships. Insurance losses totaled $161 million, up $49 million year-over-year due to higher weather-related losses.

    總承保保費為 3.85 億美元,季減 500 萬美元,年增 3,100 萬美元。財產和意外保險承保保費年增 3,700 萬美元,這得益於新的合作關係。保險損失總計 1.61 億美元,由於天氣相關損失增加,年比增加 4,900 萬美元。

  • During the quarter, we incurred net weather losses of $58 million, an increase of $41 million year-over-year, representing our highest 1Q ever for this activity. Over 80% of our net weather losses were attributed to an historic three day severe weather event. Since our IPO, on average, net weather losses in the first quarter of the year have averaged approximately $13 million.

    本季度,我們遭受的淨天氣損失為 5,800 萬美元,較去年同期增加 4,100 萬美元,創下該活動有史以來第一季的最高記錄。我們 80% 以上的淨天氣損失歸因於歷史性的三天惡劣天氣事件。自我們首次公開募股以來,每年第一季的淨天氣損失平均約為 1,300 萬美元。

  • To put it in context, the storm in March was a one in 200-year event. While losses in this business are inherently unpredictable and tend to concentrate in the first half of the year, we maintain excess of loss reinsurance coverage that partially mitigated the impact.

    具體來說,三月的風暴是兩百年一遇的事件。雖然該業務的損失本質上是不可預測的,並且往往集中在上半年,但我們維持了超額損失再保險覆蓋,這部分減輕了影響。

  • As you know, our reinsurance policy is up for renewal each year. We recently executed a renewal of coverage for the first quarter of 2026. While losses were higher, we remain pleased with the outcome, and those costs are captured in the full year guide I'll cover shortly.

    如您所知,我們的再保險政策每年都會更新。我們最近對 2026 年第一季的保險進行了續保。儘管損失較高,但我們對結果仍然感到滿意,這些成本已包含在我即將介紹的全年指南中。

  • Despite weather-related volatility, the insurance business continues to generate attractive returns and remains a growth area for Ally going forward.

    儘管受天氣影響,保險業務仍持續產生可觀的回報,並仍是 Ally 未來的成長領域。

  • Corporate Finance results are on Page 13. The Core pretax income of $76 million demonstrated another strong quarter, translating to a 25% return on equity. Net financing revenue of $104 million was $11 million lower quarter-over-quarter and down $16 million year-over-year, driven by elevated syndication fee revenue in prior periods. Provision expense of $14 million increased $19 million quarter-over-quarter driven by balanced growth.

    公司財務結果在第 13 頁。核心稅前收入 7,600 萬美元,顯示本季業績再創佳績,相當於股本回報率達 25%。淨融資收入為 1.04 億美元,比上一季減少 1,100 萬美元,比去年同期減少 1,600 萬美元,原因是前期銀團費收入增加。受均衡成長的推動,撥備支出為 1,400 萬美元,較上季增加 1,900 萬美元。

  • End-of-period HFI loans ended at $10.9 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion from the fourth quarter, reflecting our focus on prudently growing this core business. Our portfolio remains well diversified, high-quality and 100% first lien. Criticized assets and nonaccrual loan exposures were 12% and 1% of the total portfolio near historically low levels. Since 2019, the average historical loss rate for corporate finance was under 50 basis points, underscoring the credit quality of the portfolio.

    期末 HFI 貸款達 109 億美元,較第四季增加 13 億美元,反映出我們專注於審慎發展這項核心業務。我們的投資組合仍然保持多元化、高品質和 100% 的優先留置權。受批評資產和非應計貸款風險敞口分別佔總投資組合的 12% 和 1%,接近歷史最低水準。自2019年以來,企業融資的歷史平均損失率低於50個基點,凸顯了投資組合的信用品質。

  • At the bottom of the page, we highlight balances across corporate finances three main verticals. Since 2019, balances have grown from $5.7 billion to $10.9 billion, while maintaining disciplined credit management. The team has excelled at building relationships with equity sponsors and middle market asset managers. These partnerships, combined with a focus on expanding product offerings have driven highly accretive, responsible loan growth.

    在頁面底部,我們重點介紹了公司財務三個主要垂直領域的餘額。自 2019 年以來,餘額從 57 億美元增長至 109 億美元,同時維持了嚴格的信貸管理。該團隊在與股權發起人和中端市場資產管理公司建立關係方面表現出色。這些合作關係,加上對擴大產品供應的關注,推動了高價值、負責任的貸款成長。

  • I'll conclude with a brief update on the financial outlook on Page 14. We've been pleased with the execution in our core franchises through the first quarter. This strong start supports our confidence in our full year outlook, which remains unchanged. We are closely evaluating the impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty and tariffs. In the spirit of transparency that we are committed to, we will update investors on our outlook as it evolves.

    最後,我將在第 14 頁簡單介紹一下財務前景。我們對第一季核心特許經營的執行感到滿意。這一強勁開局增強了我們對全年前景的信心,這一信心保持不變。我們正在密切評估宏觀經濟不確定性和關稅的影響。本著我們致力於透明的精神,我們將向投資者通報我們的展望的最新進展。

  • Looking beyond 2025, we remain confident in our ability to deliver a mid-teens return over the medium term. The exact timing will be driven by several factors, including the macroeconomic environment. We believe that our focused strategy best positions us to navigate this uncertain environment, including the potential impacts of tariffs.

    展望 2025 年以後,我們仍有信心在中期內達到中等水準的報酬。具體時間將受到宏觀經濟環境等多種因素的影響。我們相信,我們的重點策略最能讓我們應對這種不確定的環境,包括關稅的潛在影響。

  • As we've talked about before, our ROE expansion story is simple and requires three things: net interest margin expansion into the upper 3s, retail auto losses below 2%, which translates to a consolidated loss rate of approximately 1.3% as well as continued focus on expense discipline and capital allocation.

    正如我們之前所討論的,我們的 ROE 擴張故事很簡單,需要三件事:淨利差擴大到 3% 以上,零售汽車損失低於 2%,這意味著綜合損失率約為 1.3%,以及繼續關注費用紀律和資本配置。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Michael for a wrap-up.

    就這樣,我將把話題交還給麥可進行總結。

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Thank you, Russ. Before we turn to Q&A, I'd like to close by highlighting a few key points. We have significant opportunities ahead within our core franchises, and we are poised to unlock even greater value. Despite a few unique headwinds in the quarter, financial and operational results were solid and aligned with our expectations from January. While we expect some near-term volatility stemming from the changes in trade policy, we are well positioned to effectively serve our customers and will benefit from a stronger economy in the long term.

    謝謝你,拉斯。在我們進入問答環節之前,我想最後強調幾個關鍵點。我們的核心特許經營領域面臨著巨大的機遇,我們已準備好釋放更大的價值。儘管本季面臨一些獨特的不利因素,但財務和營運業績依然穩健,與我們一月份的預期一致。雖然我們預計貿易政策的變化將在短期內帶來一些波動,但我們已做好準備,能夠有效地為客戶提供服務,並將從長期更強勁的經濟中受益。

  • Our ability to navigate this environment reflects deliberate actions we have taken to strengthen the company. We reduced credit risk by exiting card and shifting our auto origination mix towards higher credit quality borrowers.

    我們能夠在這種環境下生存的能力反映了我們為加強公司實力而採取的深思熟慮的行動。我們透過退出信用卡並將汽車貸款組合轉向信用品質更高的借款人來降低信用風險。

  • We reduced interest rate risk by running off long-dated fixed rate assets and repositioning the securities portfolio. We are growing fee income which is capital efficient and less sensitive to changes in interest rates and credit cycles.

    我們透過出售長期固定利率資產和重新配置證券投資組合來降低利率風險。我們正在增加費用收入,這是資本效率高且對利率和信貸週期變化不太敏感的。

  • The growth in our expenses has been arrested, and we've reduced controllable expenses while continuing to invest in key capabilities, particularly in servicing and collections. And we've shown a consistent ability to generate capital, which we've used to derisk the balance sheet while continuing to move CET1 higher.

    我們的支出成長已經得到控制,我們減少了可控支出,同時繼續投資關鍵能力,特別是服務和收款方面。我們已經展現出持續的資本產生能力,我們利用這些能力來降低資產負債表的風險,同時繼續提高 CET1。

  • Looking ahead, we are leveraging the power of focus to originate accretive assets in our core business, poised for margin expansion in a varied rate scenarios and a remaining disciplined with expenses, and I am confident in our ability to deliver strong shareholder returns.

    展望未來,我們將利用專注的力量在我們的核心業務中創造增值資產,準備在不同的利率情境下擴大利潤率,並繼續嚴格控制開支,我相信我們有能力為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Sean for Q&A.

    接下來,我將把時間交給肖恩進行問答。

  • Sean Leary - Head of IR

    Sean Leary - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Michael. As we head into Q&A, we do ask that participants limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Elizabeth, please begin the Q&A.

    謝謝你,麥可。當我們進入問答環節時,我們確實要求參與者只提出一個問題並進行一次後續提問。伊麗莎白,請開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Sanjay Sakhrani from KBW.

    KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

  • Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

    Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Michael, maybe first one for you. Just a question on the evolving uncertainty as it relates to tariffs. How do you think it impacts your business?

    謝謝。早安.邁克爾,也許對你來說這是第一個。我只是想問一下與關稅有關的不確定性。您認為它對您的業務有何影響?

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Sanjay, thanks for the question. And I think your description of the evolving uncertainty is probably a fair one. The environment is undeniably fluid that we're dealing with. And -- as I think of the tariffs, I'd like to maybe leave you with 2 thoughts, if I can. One is the thought is how we're positioned today.

    桑傑,謝謝你的提問。我認為您對不斷演變的不確定性的描述可能是合理的。無可否認,我們所面對的環境是不斷改變的。當我想到關稅時,如果可以的話,我想給你留下兩點想法。一是思考我們今天的定位。

  • And I say we're very much in a position of strength. And the second is I'll play out how I see this working for us given what we know today, recognize all that can change. But first, the position strength I mean, objectively, if you look at our balance sheet today, our capital strength our credit risk position what we've done with -- by divesting the card business and the mix in assets for the auto lending business has put us in a much stronger position, our liquidity position, our interest rate risk all of that, you look at our balance sheet, and we feel very good about where we are today.

    我想說我們處於非常有利的地位。第二,根據我們目前所了解的情況,我將闡述我認為這對我們有何作用,並認識到所有事情都可能改變。但首先,我的意思是,客觀地說,如果你看看我們今天的資產負債表,我們的資本實力、我們的信用風險狀況,我們所做的——通過剝離信用卡業務和汽車貸款業務的資產組合,使我們處於更強大的地位,我們的流動性狀況、我們的利率風險,所有這些,你看看我們的資產負債表,我們對目前的資產狀況感到非常滿意。

  • And I could probably double click on any one of those for while, but just rest assured, you see strength like we haven't seen in years on the balance sheet.

    我可能會雙擊其中任何一個,但請放心,您會在資產負債表上看到我們多年來從未見過的實力。

  • This hasn't happened by accident. It's happened because of several steps we've taken to enable this. We've sold a credit card business. We stopped Regimortgages. We executed several CRT transactions.

    這並不是偶然發生的。這是因為我們已採取多項措施來實現這一目標。我們已經出售了信用卡業務。我們停止了 Regimortgages。我們執行了幾筆 CRT 交易。

  • We've undertaken 2 securities repositionings and we made operational changes to improve our effectiveness and say, especially in collections. And so we feel very good about the -- both strategic and the tactical steps we're taking to manage the business and position positions for any environment including this.

    我們進行了兩次證券重新定位,並進行了營運變革,以提高我們的效率和發言權,特別是在收款方面。因此,我們對我們為管理業務和在任何環境中(包括這種情況)定位而採取的策略和戰術步驟感到非常滿意。

  • Going forward, look, there are lots of gives and takes, and we don't have perfect insights. I don't think anyone does right now. But I'll probably break this into the near term and the medium term. In the near term, I'd say we have a potential to use car prices play out in a way that's beneficial for recoveries and lease gains. There's also the near term on volumes, there may be a pull forward in demand.

    展望未來,你看,有很多的妥協和讓步,而且我們還沒有完美的見解。我認為現在沒有人這麼做。但我可能會將其分為短期和中期。從短期來看,我認為我們有可能利用汽車價格走勢來促進經濟復甦和租賃收益。從短期來看,需求可能會增加。

  • I will say the recent volume numbers that we've been seeing have been quite strong. And there's a thesis floating around that's some pull forward. There's price and truth to that. It's hard to be really precise.

    我想說的是,我們看到的近期交易量數字相當強勁。並且有一個流傳的論點可以推動一些事情的發展。這是有代價的,也是事實。很難做到真正精確。

  • But that's what we see in the near term. In the medium and longer term, the folks are very much going to be on the macro economy and what this means for inflation, consumer health, portability and things like that.

    但這就是我們近期看到的情況。從中期和長期來看,人們將非常關注宏觀經濟及其對通貨膨脹、消費者健康、可攜性等方面的影響。

  • You could see a place where there are fewer units but higher average price. When we step back from this, I think it's important that you actually also look at the mix of business that we finance and if you look at our mix and kind of where they appear to be in the tariffs that we understand them today, we're in the less impact or side of the spectrum. And so we think that sets ourself on a comparative basis reasonably well.

    您可能會看到一個地方,那裡的單位較少,但平均價格較高。當我們退一步思考這個問題時,我認為重要的是你實際上也要看看我們資助的業務組合,如果你看看我們的組合以及它們在我們今天理解的關稅中所處的位置,我們受到的影響較小或處於頻譜的一側。因此,我們認為這為我們提供了一個相當好的比較基礎。

  • So lots of uncertainty in the market and not easy to forecast the future. But my takeaway from this is like we're executing well today. We've positioned the bank from a, I think, quite well to handle this environment. And objectively, we're just -- we're in a strong position. And that's kind of how we see it.

    因此,市場存在著許多不確定性,未來很難預測。但我的感受是,我們今天的執行情況很好。我認為,我們已經為銀行做好了很好的定位,可以應付這種環境。客觀地說,我們處於強勢地位。這就是我們的看法。

  • It's hard to be terribly precise, but I feel good about where we are.

    很難非常精確地描述,但我對我們現在的狀況感到滿意。

  • Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

    Sanjay Sakhrani - Analyst

  • That's very comprehensive. Russ, just a 2-parter on the NIM. Maybe you could just talk about one, sort of the rate backdrop and how that aligns with your guidance? Like, do you think you can get to the high end of that range given the rate outlook, just what was factored in before and what's factored in now? And then secondly, just talk about the mix of originations you're seeing now and sort of how that plays into the yield dynamics and the competitive backdrop may be?

    這非常全面。拉斯,這只是 NIM 的兩個部分。也許您可以只談論一個,例如利率背景以及它與您的指導如何一致?例如,考慮到利率前景,您是否認為您可以達到該範圍的高端,只是之前考慮了什麼,現在又考慮了什麼?其次,您能談談現在看到的貸款來源組合,以及這些組合對殖利率動態和競爭背景的影響嗎?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, sure. Maybe I'll start on the rate backdrop and our guidance. As we've said before, as you know, we consider a range of rate outcomes when we think about our guidance. And so our guidance of [3.4% to 3.5%] for 2025, we've considered scenarios where rates stay where they are for the foreseeable future, and we've considered scenarios where rates come down and three, four rate moves by the Fed over the course of the year are certainly within what we've considered in terms of our rate guidance. .

    是的,當然。也許我會從利率背景和我們的指導開始。正如我們之前所說,正如您所知,我們在考慮指導時會考慮一系列利率結果。因此,我們對 2025 年的指導是 [3.4% 至 3.5%],我們考慮了可預見的未來利率保持不變的情況,也考慮了利率下降的情況,美聯儲在一年內三、四次利率調整肯定在我們考慮的利率指導範圍之內。。

  • And as you'll recall, Sanjay, as we said before, the size of a federal reserve rate change, the timing of that rate change could affect us in the quarter and the next quarter. but our business adjusts. And so as we think about our business kind of 2 quarters out, we tend to adjust for that. And so we've avoided giving quarter-by-quarter guidance for that reason, but there is a resilience to our rate outlook as you kind of look at it over -- our NIM outlook as you look at it over a longer period of time.

    桑傑,您還記得,正如我們之前所說,聯準會利率調整的幅度和時機可能會對本季和下一季產生影響。但我們的業務會進行調整。因此,當我們考慮未來兩個季度的業務時,我們傾向於對此進行調整。因此,我們避免提供逐季的指導,但從較長時期來看,我們的利率前景具有彈性——我們的 NIM 前景也具有彈性。

  • On the origination side, as Michael pointed out and as we said on the call, we were pleased with the business' performance in the first quarter. Our application volume throughout the quarter was at record levels, and that's coming off of 2024, which, as you know, was really strong. I think that speaks to the competitive environment that we're in. It continues to be favorable to us. and it continues to position us to be able to be selective in terms of both credit and rate.

    在發起方面,正如邁克爾指出的以及我們在電話中所說的那樣,我們對第一季的業務表現感到滿意。我們整個季度的申請量都達到了創紀錄的水平,這是從 2024 年開始的,正如你所知,這是一個非常強勁的成長勢頭。我認為這體現了我們所處的競爭環境。這對我們仍然有利。並且它繼續使我們能夠在信貸和利率方面進行選擇。

  • You saw our originated yield at 9.8%, strong, up from fourth quarter. our tier still at 44% for the quarter, which, as you know, we took steps to bring that down from 49% in the fourth quarter. Those were successful, but we're still running at a relatively attractive level in terms of the proportion of our originations that are in our highest credit quality tier.

    您會看到我們的原始收益率達到 9.8%,比第四季強勁上升。本季我們的層級仍為 44%,如您所知,我們已採取措施將該比例從第四季的 49% 降至最低。這些都是成功的,但就我們最高信用品質等級的發起比例而言,我們仍然處於相對有吸引力的水平。

  • So again, I think that speaks to just the competitive dynamic that we're in, and it continues to be favorable. As Michael pointed out, the outlook is volatile. There is some uncertainty there. And so as we kind of work our way through the year, we'll certainly provide any updates as we think about it. But right now, our expectation is that we'll continue to originate in the high 9% to 10% originated yield. Thank you.

    所以,我認為這再次說明了我們所處的競爭態勢,而這種態勢仍然有利。正如邁克爾指出的那樣,前景並不明朗。這裡存在一些不確定性。因此,隨著我們在這一年中不斷努力,我們一定會提供我們想到的任何更新。但目前,我們預計收益率將繼續保持在 9% 至 10% 的高水準。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Adelson from Morgan Stanley

    摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森

  • Jeff Adelson - Analyst

    Jeff Adelson - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my questions. I guess just to circle back on the NIM. I appreciate that you're not giving specific quarterly NIM guidance from here. But just given all the puts and takes we have with card coming off you've done the securities repositioning. It seems like you're saying you're now past the worst of this mix issue on the lease residual side. So I guess just curious if you could maybe speak to what we should be expecting from here maybe in 2Q.

    嘿,早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想只是回到 NIM。我很感激您沒有在這裡給出具體的季度 NIM 指導。但是,考慮到我們在卡片失效後所面臨的所有風險和損失,您已經完成了證券重新定位。看起來您好像在說,您現在已經度過了租賃剩餘方面混合問題的最嚴重時期。所以我只是好奇您是否可以談談我們對第二季的期望。

  • It just seems like for the rest of the year, you're still sort of thinking about a $3.4 to $3.55 for the average of the rest of the year. Should we be thinking about second quarter is more flat or up from here? Thanks.

    看起來,對於今年剩餘時間而言,您仍然會考慮 3.4 美元至 3.55 美元的平均值。我們是否應該認為第二季的業績將持平還是上升?謝謝。

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, So we reiterated the full year guide of $340 million to $350 million. Jeff, you're absolutely right on pointing out card. Card was included in first quarter in our first quarter NIM, it comes out in second quarter, given that the sale closed on April 1. We've previously described that as a 20 basis point impact to NIM on a run rate basis.

    是的,因此我們重申了 3.4 億至 3.5 億美元的全年指導價。傑夫,你指出這張卡是完全正確的。信用卡包含在我們第一季的淨利差 (NIM) 中,由於銷售於 4 月 1 日結束,因此它將在第二季公佈。我們之前曾將其描述為對 NIM 的運行率產生 20 個基點的影響。

  • So we'll feel that impact in the second quarter. That being said, we expect to make up for that. And we expect to make up for that through a number of things. I'd say, number one, on the deposit side, you've seen we've taken 2 relatively recent changes to price. Those changes will -- the full benefit of those benefits will accrue in the second quarter, and so that will be helpful.

    因此我們將在第二季感受到這種影響。話雖如此,我們希望彌補這一點。我們希望透過多種方式來彌補這一點。我想說,首先,在存款方面,您已經看到我們最近對價格進行了兩次調整。這些變化——這些好處的全部好處將在第二季累積,因此這將是有幫助的。

  • I'd also say at a 60% beta so far, we feel pretty good about overall views on our approximately 70% beta on our deposit book. And so again, that in our view, kind of points to some confidence around our NIM expansion story. Also on the deposit side, we pointed to $12 billion of CD maturities in the quarter. Those CDs are maturing at 4.8%. They're maturing into CDs priced lower or into liquid savings, again, price lower.

    我還想說,到目前為止,在 60% 的貝塔係數下,我們對存款帳簿中約 70% 的貝塔係數的整體看法感到非常滿意。因此,在我們看來,這再次表明了我們對 NIM 擴張故事的信心。另外在存款方面,我們指出本季的存款證明到期金額為 120 億美元。這些存單的到期利率為 4.8%。它們正在成熟為價格較低的 CD 或流動性儲蓄,同樣,價格較低。

  • That is a tailwind in terms of our net interest margin, and that continues through the year. We added an extra exhibit to the appendix. We'll show about $11 billion of CD maturities in the second quarter. That's another point that's helpful.

    對我們的淨利差來說,這是一個順風,這種趨勢將持續到今年。我們在附錄中增加了一個額外的展品。我們將顯示第二季約有 110 億美元的 CD 到期。這是另一個有用的觀點。

  • And then as you pointed out, obviously, there's some benefits in terms of NIM to the securities repositioning trades as well as relief from some of the pressure we saw from lease gains going negative in the first quarter. So we've got a lot of moving pieces, but the fundamentals are still really strong in terms of the pricing momentum that we have in the deposit business and our ability to continue to get great credit at an attractive yield in the retail auto loan book.

    然後,正如您所指出的,顯然,就淨利差而言,證券重新定位交易有一些好處,同時也緩解了我們在第一季租賃收益為負時看到的一些壓力。因此,我們有很多變動,但就存款業務的定價勢頭以及我們在零售汽車貸款賬簿上繼續以有吸引力的收益率獲得優質信貸的能力而言,基本面仍然非常強勁。

  • And I would say just the longer-term trend of our migration away from lower-yielding mortgage loans and lower-yielding parts of our securities portfolio. to our higher-returning retail auto loan and corporate finance, loans is very much intact and continues.

    我想說的是,我們的長期趨勢是逐漸減少收益較低的抵押貸款和收益較低的證券投資組合。對於我們回報率更高的零售汽車貸款和企業融資而言,貸款業務基本上完好無損並將繼續下去。

  • Jeff Adelson - Analyst

    Jeff Adelson - Analyst

  • Great. And as my follow-up, just on the credit performance. You've seen some really nice stabilization the past few quarters. You've highlighted a lot of the actions you've taken in your collections and mitigation practices. Just kind of as we think about the trajectory to getting back down to 2% or below loss rate, how quickly do you think you can get there?

    偉大的。作為我的後續關注,我只是關注信用表現。過去幾個季度,我們已經看到了非常好的穩定。您強調了您在收集和緩解措施中採取的許多行動。正如我們思考將損失率降至 2% 或以下的軌跡一樣,您認為多快可以實現這一目標?

  • I mean, the delinquency trends in the vintage basis look pretty good. I know the back half of the year is seasonality, but maybe on a seasonally adjusted basis, is there a case for you getting to below 2% by the end of the year?

    我的意思是,過去的拖欠趨勢看起來相當不錯。我知道下半年有季節性,但也許根據季節性調整後的數據,到年底降幅會達到 2% 以下嗎?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Thanks for the question. It's a good question. And we spent some time on this last quarter as well. And we talked about it in the context of the range that we presented for full year 2025, right, which goes from 2% to 2.25%, which more or less kind of covers the span of your question. I think the way we described it last year was in terms of really three variables, kind of overall delinquency levels entering the quarter flow to loss and then used vehicle prices.

    謝謝你的提問。這是個好問題。我們在上個季度也花了一些時間。我們在 2025 年全年預測範圍內討論了這個問題,從 2% 到 2.25%,這或多或少涵蓋了您問題的範圍。我認為我們去年的描述實際上是從三個變數的角度,即進入本季的總體拖欠水平、損失流向以及二手車價格。

  • And as I think about where we are this quarter relative to last quarter, I'd say, obviously, on flow to loss rates, they continue to be very strong.

    當我思考本季與上一季相比的情況時,我會說,顯然,就流向損失率而言,它們仍然非常強勁。

  • In terms of delinquency, yes, we did see some improvement in the second derivative. That is the a smaller increase in delinquency on a year-over-year basis. And as you parse through the buckets, you definitely see some green shoots there. in terms of how our delinquency is evolving. But I'd still characterize it as elevated.

    就犯罪行為而言,是的,我們確實看到二階導數有所改善。這意味著與去年同期相比,拖欠率的增幅較小。當你分析這些桶子時,你肯定會看到一些綠芽。就我們的犯罪行為如何演變而言。但我仍然認為它是一種高級的。

  • In terms of used vehicle prices, still continue to be strong. Obviously, there's some uncertainty in the outlook around the macro.

    就二手車價格而言,依然持續保持強勢。顯然,宏觀前景存在一些不確定性。

  • But again, right now, as we speak, used car prices continue to be strong. And so as I take that set of ingredients and kind of carry that forward, I'd say, look, I think there's reason to be optimistic. And certainly, if you looked just on the basis of what we saw in the first quarter, you'd point towards the lower half of the range that we provided.

    但就目前而言,二手車價格依然保持強勁。因此,當我採用這組成分並將其發揚光大時,我會說,看,我認為有理由感到樂觀。當然,如果僅根據我們在第一季看到的情況來看,你會發現我們給出的範圍處於下半部分。

  • But on the other hand, as you think about the outlook, you think about the elevated delinquencies that we have, you think about the uncertainty in the macro and how that, in particular, could impact us in terms of the -- in terms of carrying around that inventory of delinquent accounts. Yes, I think there's a lot of reason for caution.

    但另一方面,當你考慮前景時,你會想到我們所面臨的高額拖欠率,你會想到宏觀的不確定性,以及這種不確定性會如何影響我們——尤其是對拖欠帳戶庫存的影響。是的,我認為有很多理由需要謹慎。

  • And so we've taken the decision we want to keep the full range intact of 2% to 2.25%, and we think that's prudent just kind of given where we are.

    因此,我們決定將利率維持在 2% 至 2.25% 的區間內,考慮到目前的狀況,我們認為這是謹慎的做法。

  • We're transparent. And just like prior years, we're going to call it as we see it. And so certainly, to the extent that we have a change in our view, we'll provide updates as appropriate.

    我們是透明的。就像前幾年一樣,我們會實事求是地談論它。當然,如果我們的觀點發生變化,我們會適時提供更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Wildhack from Autonomous Research.

    來自 Autonomous Research 的 Robert Wildhack。

  • Robert Wildhack - Analyst

    Robert Wildhack - Analyst

  • Morning guys, Russ, it sounded like you were still willing to unwind curtailment over time. I'm wondering if there's been any change to the absolute or aggregate amount of unwind you'd be willing to consider, given the current environment today? And to the extent that there is, could you just comment on how that might weigh on originated yield and the NIM outlook?

    早上好,拉斯,聽起來你仍然願意隨著時間的推移而放鬆限制。我想知道,考慮到當前的環境,您是否願意考慮絕對或總計的平倉金額發生任何變化?如果確實存在這種情況,您能否評論一下這會對原始收益率和淨利差前景產生什麼影響?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, Great question, Rob. I guess I'd start just reiterate Michael's point that the outlook is uncertain. And we're watching, obviously, very closely. We're looking at things on a pretty granular level in terms of how the OEMs are behaving, our dealer partners as well as how consumers.

    是的,問得好,羅布。我想我應該重申麥可的觀點:前景不確定。顯然,我們正在密切關注。我們正在從原始設備製造商、經銷商合作夥伴以及消費者的行為進行非常細緻的觀察。

  • And so you can imagine, we're looking at things at a make and model level. And we're looking at MSRP, dealer invoice and auction values and looking at changes in application volume, just to understand how people are behaving. . We're also paying very close attention to our recent vintages and how those are performing. And obviously, that's an important data point as we think about how to think about curtailment unwind or mix normalization as we move forward.

    所以你可以想像,我們正在從品牌和型號的層面來看待事物。我們正在關注製造商建議零售價、經銷商發票和拍賣價值,以及申請量的變化,以了解人們的行為。。我們也密切關注我們最近的葡萄酒及其表現。顯然,當我們思考如何在前進的過程中考慮削減解除或混合正常化時,這是一個重要的數據點。

  • And I'd say it's a dynamic process, and it's not a set-and-forget it approach. So we're just going to -- we're going to continue to watch the market closely and evolve accordingly.

    我想說這是一個動態的過程,而不是設定好然後忘記的方法。因此,我們將繼續密切關注市場並做出相應的調整。

  • A few things I would put out there, and you could see this in the vintage delinquency charts. Our 2024 vintages continue to outperform. They are outperforming our expectations in terms of our price loss expectations at the time that we originated them. And so in our view, that does give us some cushion in terms of how we think about our underwriting.

    我會提出一些事情,你可以在復古的違法行為圖表中看到這一點。我們的 2024 年份葡萄酒繼續表現出色。就我們制定這些政策時的價格損失預期而言,它們的表現超出了我們的預期。因此,我們認為,這確實為我們的核保考慮提供了一些緩衝。

  • All that being said, we're taking a very cautious approach to unwinding any of the curtailment, just given the need to understand and to see how kind of the current changes in trade policy, in particular, as it relates to the auto industry, how that affects our OEMs, our dealer partners and our customers.

    話雖如此,我們對取消任何限制措施都採取非常謹慎的態度,只是因為需要了解和觀察當前貿易政策的變化,特別是與汽車行業相關的變化,如何影響我們的原始設備製造商、我們的經銷商合作夥伴和我們的客戶。

  • Robert Wildhack - Analyst

    Robert Wildhack - Analyst

  • And then could you just comment on what kind of used car price outlook is embedded in your outlook and your underwriting today and remind us of the sensitivity there should used car prices end up increasing in a big way sometime this year?

    然後,您能否評論一下您今天的展望和承保中包含了什麼樣的二手車價格前景,並提醒我們,如果二手車價格在今年某個時候大幅上漲,那麼這將是一個敏感問題?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, So look, I'd say our models, as we said before, I anticipate used car prices kind of in the neighborhood where they are and that's at a level that's probably about 20% elevated to where they were pre pandemic, driven by the supply-demand dynamic. And that's the view that kind of predates a lot of kind of what we've seen on the tariff side over the course of the last couple of weeks. I think it's too early to call it on where used car prices go. I think certainly, intuitively, the expectation is that tariffs increasing the effective price of new vehicles will have a positive impact on the value of used vehicles.

    是的,所以,我想說,正如我們之前所說的那樣,我們的車型預計二手車價格會保持在目前的水平,並且受供需動態的推動,這一水平可能比疫情前上漲 20% 左右。這種觀點早於我們過去幾週在關稅方面所看到的許多情況。我認為現在判斷二手車價格走勢還為時過早。我認為,直觀的預期是,關稅提高新車的實際價格將對二手車的價值產生正面影響。

  • And that, as Michael pointed out earlier, would have a positive impact on our business in a few different ways.

    正如邁克爾之前指出的那樣,這將在幾個不同的方面對我們的業務產生積極影響。

  • One, in terms of -- on the credit side in terms of severity and then two, obviously, in the lease book in terms of what we see on lease gains going forward. but I'd say it's probably early to call it in terms of what to expect, but there -- yes, there's some potential benefit to used vehicle prices stronger than we anticipated through the year.

    首先,就信用方面的嚴重程度而言;其次,顯然,就租賃帳簿而言,就我們對未來租賃收益的看法而言。但我想說,現在就預測未來還為時過早,但確實,二手車價格確實比我們全年預期的要高,這會帶來一些潛在的好處。

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

    Moshe Orenbuch 與 TD Cowen 合作。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. Most of my questions actually have been asked and answered. But maybe going back to Sanjay's question about the origination yield. Is there a way to unpack how much of the change is driven by the various different factors. You talked a little bit about premium amortization. Obviously, you've got the benefit from a lower Stier and then other kind of pricing changes. Like is there a way to just unpack those?

    太好了,謝謝。我的大部分問題實際上都已經被提出並得到解答了。但也許可以回到桑傑關於起源收益的問題。有沒有辦法分析有多少變化是由各種不同因素造成的。您談了一些有關保費攤提的問題。顯然,您可以從較低的 Stier 價格以及其他類型的價格變化中受益。有沒有辦法解開它們?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, Let's separate the origination yield from the portfolio yield. And so when we talk about the 9.8%, that's the originated yield. So that's just on the book that we originated in the quarter. And the benefit we saw moving from fourth quarter to first quarter, that's mostly attributed to the -- basically the movement in STR from 49% to 44%.

    是的,讓我們將起源收益率與投資組合收益率分開。因此,當我們談論 9.8% 時,這就是原始收益率。這就是我們本季出版的書。我們從第四季到第一季看到的好處主要歸因於 STR 從 49% 上升到 44%。

  • That drove the overwhelming majority of the move up in yield. When you look at the portfolio yield, that's where things like the premium amortization factor in.

    這推動了收益率的大幅上升。當你查看投資組合收益率時,你會發現諸如溢價攤銷之類的因素在裡面。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • But it isn't -- you're saying the 5% decrease in the STR was not more than all of that change in the portfolio in the kind of new origination yield?

    但事實並非如此——您是說 STR 的 5% 降幅並不比投資組合中新發起收益率的所有變化更大?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • No, it wasn't more. It was approximately the change.

    不,僅此而已。這大概就是變化。

  • Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

    Moshe Orenbuch - Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe you talked a lot about the vintage delinquency. Could you talk a little bit about where the portfolio sits now? Obviously, we have the stuff as of year-end in the 10-K, but can you talk about like where it will sit or maybe perhaps at midyear? And at what point you get kind of that level of increased confidence that enough of that book is kind of in the -- out of the '22 vintage or perhaps even out of the '23 vintage, and you're now concentrated on the '24 and '25 vintages?

    好的。也許您談論了很多有關老式犯罪的問題。能否談談投資組合目前的狀況?顯然,截至年底,我們在 10-K 中已經有了這些東西,但您能否談談它將放在哪裡,或者可能在年中?什麼時候你會更有信心,認為這本書的足夠內容已經來自 22 年份,甚至可能是 23 年份,而你現在專注於 24 年份和 25 年份?

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Yeah, Look, I think the vintage rollover is progressing exactly as we expected, and that '22 vintages playing a smaller, smaller role is certainly in what we're seeing in terms of loss development. By the end of the year, we expect our '22 vintage to be about 10% of our book. And so as we look at our vintage delinquency statistics. Our view is that the vintage delinquency and the vintage rollover has played out pretty much exactly as we would have expected.

    是的,看,我認為年份展期的進展正如我們預期的那樣,而 22 年份所起的作用越來越小,這肯定是我們在損失發展方面看到的。到今年年底,我們預計 22 年的產量將達到總產量的 10% 左右。當我們查看過去的犯罪統計數據時。我們的觀點是,老式債務拖欠和老式債務展期的情況與我們預期的差不多。

  • And we're pretty happy with where we are.

    我們對目前的狀況非常滿意。

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Hey Moshe, it's a good question. And I mean if you look at that chart that shows the vintages, like as Russ said, we feel good with where we are. The unpredictability in the environment is probably the reason for a bit of our caution on being more prescriptive as environment becomes clearer, we may have a more definitive view. But right now, I think we set out some objectives that we're trying to achieve, and we think we're tracking very nicely along that path.

    嘿,Moshe,這是個好問題。我的意思是,如果你看一下顯示年份的圖表,就像拉斯所說的那樣,我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。環境的不可預測性可能是我們對更具指導性採取謹慎態度的原因,隨著環境變得更加清晰,我們可能會有更明確的看法。但現在,我認為我們已經設定了一些想要實現的目標,我們認為我們正在沿著這些目標順利前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

  • John Armstrom - Analyst

    John Armstrom - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning.

    謝謝。早安.

  • Russ Hutchinson - CFO

    Russ Hutchinson - CFO

  • Good morning, John.

    早安,約翰。

  • John Armstrom - Analyst

    John Armstrom - Analyst

  • Most of my questions have been asked and answered. I think it's about margin and credit. Those are the two things. But Michael, a bigger picture question for you. You've been in the chair for a while, and the card business has now gone.

    我的大部分問題都已提出並得到解答。我認為這與利潤和信用有關。這是兩件事。但是邁克爾,我要問你一個更宏觀的問題。您擔任主席已有一段時間了,現在卡片業務已經不存在了。

  • What are you focused on from a strategic point of view? What are your top couple of priorities from here?

    從策略角度來看,您關注的重點是什麼?您的首要任務是什麼?

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Well, great question. And when I think about our priorities, I think about, first of all, we laid out the objective to achieve a mid-teens returns. And we've been very clear on the three things that need to happen to achieve that. And so, this is less strategic, more tactical, but we're very focused on executing or to deliver the commitments we've made. And we think we're positioned to do so.

    嗯,好問題。當我考慮我們的優先事項時,首先我想到的是,我們設定的目標是實現十幾歲的回報。我們已經非常清楚要實現這一目標需要做三件事。因此,這不太具有戰略性,而更具戰術性,但我們非常專注於執行或兌現我們所做的承諾。我們認為我們已經準備好這樣做了。

  • Again, timing is to be determined, but we feel good that we're on the path. In terms of the strategic priorities, I think our strategy, I bullet down to where you can compete, how you're going to win. I feel really good about our portfolio as it is today.

    再次強調,時間還有待確定,但我們很高興我們已經走在這條道路上。就策略重點而言,我認為我們的策略重點在於你可以競爭的地方,以及如何取勝。我對我們目前的投資組合感到非常滿意。

  • I think our dealer financial services, the whole ecosystem that we play in between the fee-based products, insurance, the lending that we do, both commercial and retail, the relationships we have with our dealers, I really view us as one of one in terms of how we compete in that space and feel very good about our ability to further deepen the relationships and continue to build on that business. And absolute confidence in the team and how we're delivering.

    我認為我們的經銷商金融服務,我們在收費產品、保險、商業和零售貸款之間建立的整個生態系統,以及我們與經銷商的關係,就我們在該領域的競爭方式而言,我真的認為我們是唯一一家,並且對我們進一步深化關係和繼續發展該業務的能力感到非常滿意。並且對團隊和我們的交付方式絕對有信心。

  • If I flip to our consumer bank, where we have our deposit program going and we obviously have some of the best, this is something that we -- wasn't me and the team before took this and built this out of nothing, and now their largest digital-only bank.

    如果我轉向我們的消費者銀行,我們在那裡進行存款計劃,顯然我們擁有一些最好的計劃,這是我們 - 不是我和之前的團隊從無到有建立起來的,現在是他們最大的純數字銀行。

  • And if I see the volumes that we have in that portfolio, the margin relative to other funding alternatives that we have and the customer growth that we're getting, the brand that supports this and that brand is really one of the big intangibles in terms of what makes us successful.

    如果我看到我們投資組合中的交易量、相對於其他融資替代方案的利潤率以及我們獲得的客戶成長,那麼支持這個品牌的品牌確實是我們成功的最大無形資產之一。

  • Again, I feel very good about where we are. And again, I think there's lots of upside being really simple, our share of FDIC insured deposits is at about 1%. And we're competing in the category that is the growing category. We're not trying to grow in this current year, we're not trying to grow our deposit balances. We are looking to grow customers.

    再次,我對我們目前的狀況感到非常滿意。再說一次,我認為這有很多好處,很簡單,我們在 FDIC 保險存款中的份額約為 1%。我們正在這個不斷成長的領域中競爭。我們今年不想增加業務,也不想增加存款餘額。我們正在尋求增加客戶。

  • And we think more customers typically lower balance per customer, positions us well to extract the most value and to serve our customers in the best way possible.

    我們認為,客戶越多,每位客戶的餘額就越低,這使我們能夠最大限度地發揮價值,並以最好的方式為客戶服務。

  • And then our Corporate Finance business. Look, we've got a few key relationships that we've had over the years, and we're growing those relationships. This is a competitive market, to be fair, but we're being incredibly disciplined around deal structure and around pricing. And again, we've got a strong team there. And so when I look at the core business that we're in, I see a lot of upside here.

    然後是我們的公司金融業務。你看,這些年來我們已經建立了一些重要的關係,而我們正在發展這些關係。公平地說,這是一個競爭激烈的市場,但我們在交易結構和定價方面非常嚴格。而且,我們在那裡擁有一支強大的團隊。因此,當我審視我們所從事的核心業務時,我看到了許多優勢。

  • And to be fair, the price of mission is to deliver the strong returns that we know we can do in the medium term. but there's lots of good business to be had in the areas we're competing. And so we're not looking for any next new grand diversification pattern, and we're not talking about M&A and things like that. We're talking about executing in places where we have a really definitive reason and demonstrate that we can win.

    公平地說,使命的代價就是在中期內實現我們知道能夠實現的強勁回報。但在我們競爭的領域中,有許多好生意可做。因此,我們不尋求任何新的大規模多元化模式,我們也不談論併購之類的事情。我們正在討論在有明確理由並證明我們能夠獲勝的地方執行任務。

  • Sean Leary - Head of IR

    Sean Leary - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Jon. I'm showing just about the top of the hour here. So that's all the time we have for this morning. As always, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us. That concludes today's call.

    謝謝你,喬恩。我在這裡展示的只是大約整點的時間。這就是我們今天早上的全部時間。與往常一樣,如果您有任何其他問題,請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。感謝您加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Michael Rhodes - CEO

    Michael Rhodes - CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。再見。