Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sean Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管 Sean Leary。請繼續。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning and welcome to Ally Financial's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call this morning, our CEO, Michael Rhodes, and our CFO Russ Hutchinson will review Ally's results before taking questions.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。早安，歡迎參加今天早上 Ally Financial 第四季度和 2024 年全年收益電話會議，我們的首席執行官 Michael Rhodes 和首席財務官 Russ Hutchinson 將在回答問題之前審查 Ally Financial 的業績。

The presentation we'll reference can be found on the investor relations section of our website, ally.com. Forward-looking statements and risk factor language governing today's call are on slide 2. GAAP and non-GAAP measures pertaining to our operating performance and capital results are on slides 3 and 4. As a reminder, non-GAAP or core metrics are supplemental to and not a substitute for US GAAP measures.

我們將參考的簡報可以在我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係部分找到。投影片 2 上包含有關今天電話會議的前瞻性陳述和風險因素語言。與我們的經營績效和資本績效相關的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 衡量標準請參閱幻燈片 3 和 4。提醒一下，非 GAAP 或核心指標是美國 GAAP 指標的補充，而不是替代方案。

Please note that the company made a change in our accounting methodology for electric vehicle tax credits as previewed in recent quarters. Figures for 2023 and 2024 presented under the new deferral method of accounting. For certain metrics, we've shown results under both deferral and the prior flow through methodology. Definitions and reconciliations can be found in the appendix.

請注意，正如最近幾個季度所預覽的那樣，該公司對電動車稅收抵免的會計方法進行了更改。2023 年和 2024 年的資料是根據新的遞延會計方法提出的。對於某些指標，我們顯示了延遲和先前流程下的結果。定義和調節可以在附錄中找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

然後，我會將電話轉給麥可。

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining the call. Before we begin, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles as our thoughts are with those facing such a tremendous loss.

謝謝你，肖恩。大家早安，感謝您加入通話。在我們開始之前，我想花一點時間承認洛杉磯發生的毀滅性野火，因為我們與那些面臨如此巨大損失的人們同在。

Now, while it's challenging to shift gears from such a heavy topic, let's move forward with our results starting on page 5. In 2024, Ally delivered adjusted EPS of $2.35, core pre-tax income of $1 billion, and revenues of $8.2 billion.

現在，雖然從如此沉重的話題中轉移話題頗具挑戰性，但讓我們先從第 5 頁開始繼續討論我們的結果。2024 年，Ally 的調整後每股盈餘為 2.35 美元，核心稅前收入為 10 億美元，收入為 82 億美元。

We are pleased with momentum across the businesses entering 2025, after a year in which our financial results were pressured from a combination of volatile interest rates and a consumer burdened by the cumulative effects of inflation. Fourth quarter results were in line with or favorable to the updated guidance we provided in October. The team collective efforts enable us to reinforce our market leading positions and strengthen our foundation for the years ahead.

我們對進入 2025 年的各項業務的發展勢頭感到高興，在這一年中，我們的財務業績受到了利率波動和消費者承受通貨膨脹累積影響的雙重壓力。第四季業績符合或有利於我們 10 月提供的更新指引。團隊的集體努力使我們能夠鞏固我們的市場領先地位，並為未來奠定堅實的基礎。

As a reflect of my first eight months as CEO, I'm filled with a profound sense of gratitude and optimism. I remain particularly encouraged by the strength of our core franchises. We're poised to deliver growth and shareholder value through consistent execution in dealer financial services, corporate finance, and deposits. The strength and durability of our competitive advantage of those businesses are enhanced by our brand and culture.

回顧我擔任執行長的前八個月，我充滿了深深的感激和樂觀。我仍然對我們核心特許經營權的實力感到特別鼓舞。我們準備好透過經銷商金融服務、企業融資和存款方面的一致執行來實現成長和股東價值。我們的品牌和文化增強了這些業務的競爭優勢的強度和持久性。

The Ally brand has a powerful connection with consumers anchored in a history of always doing the right thing. For the third year in a row, we were recognized by Fast Company as a brand that matters. We're the only financial services brand to achieve this consecutive distinction, proving again that we have one most relevant and differentiated brands in banking.

Ally 品牌始終堅持做正確的事，與消費者有著緊密的聯繫。我們連續第三年被 Fast Company 評為重要品牌。我們是唯一連續獲得此殊榮的金融服務品牌，再次證明我們在銀行業擁有最相關和最差異化的品牌。

When I started as CEO, one of my first priorities was to keep our people-first culture and do it right approach at the heart of everything we do. I believe it's one of the many things that truly sets Ally apart. In 2024, we ranked in the top 10% of companies for employee engagement for the fifth consecutive year, seven points higher than the financial services benchmark. When employees are all in, our culture thrives and our customers benefit.

當我開始擔任執行長時，我的首要任務之一就是保持我們以人為本的文化，並將正確的方法作為我們所做一切的核心。我相信這是真正讓 Ally 與眾不同的眾多因素之一。2024 年，我們連續第五年躋身員工敬業度公司前 10%，比金融服務基準高出 7 個百分點。當員工全心投入時，我們的文化就會蓬勃發展，我們的客戶也會受益。

Our commitment extends beyond customers and into the communities where we live and work. In 2024, we continue to drive economic mobility through financial education, affordable housing, and workforce preparedness. Our community reinvestment Act has earned three consecutive outstanding ratings, a designation achieved by fewer than 15% of banks. Going forward, we'll continue to lead into our do-it-right approach, investing in our employee and customer experience, and making a positive impact in our communities.

我們的承諾不僅限於客戶，還延伸到我們生活和工作的社區。2024 年，我們將繼續透過金融教育、經濟適用房和勞動力準備來推動經濟流動性。我們的《社區再投資法案》已連續三年獲得優秀評級，只有不到 15% 的銀行獲得此殊榮。展望未來，我們將繼續秉承「正確行事」的方法，投資於我們的員工和客戶體驗，並為我們的社區產生正面影響。

As many of you may have heard me say before, I spent the first few months in my role, listening and learning. I developed a greater appreciation for Ally's legacy during these months. And as we prepare to launch the next chapter of this company's evolution, I believe we are best positioned to deliver compelling returns and grow shareholder value to the power of focus in our core franchises.

正如你們中的許多人之前可能聽我說過的那樣，我在擔任角色的最初幾個月裡一直在傾聽和學習。在這幾個月裡，我對艾莉留下的遺產更加感激。當我們準備好開啟公司發展的下一個篇章時，我相信我們處於最佳位置，可以透過專注於我們的核心特許經營權來提供引人注目的回報並增加股東價值。

Continuing to win dealer financial services, corporate finance, and deposits will be our focus going forward. More on this in a moment. Let's turn to page 6 to talk about the quarter. Since becoming CEO, I've been evaluating all aspects of our business to identify opportunities to be even better.

繼續贏得經銷商金融服務、企業融資和存款將是我們未來的重點。稍後會詳細介紹這一點。讓我們翻到第6頁來談談這個季度。自從成為執行長以來，我一直在評估我們業務的各個方面，以尋找變得更好的機會。

Building on Ally's solid foundation and position the company for long term success is my top priority. To that end, we have taken a number of snippet steps this quarter. Now I recognize there are lots of moving pieces. However, these actions simplify and streamline the company, prioritize our resources towards our core franchises, and improve financial returns and transparency.

建立 Ally 的堅實基礎和地位，使公司長期成功是我的首要任務。為此，我們本季採取了一些片段措施。現在我認識到有很多令人感動的事情。然而，這些行動簡化了公司，將我們的資源優先用於我們的核心特許經營權，並提高了財務回報和透明度。

This morning, we announced that we reached an agreement to sell our credit card business, as I've said before, car is great business, and we have a great team. However, I believe our path to deliver midteens returns is through the power of focus. Similarly, we are seeing new mortgage loan originations on January 31 and expect remaining balances to run off over time. The mortgage portfolio today yields just over 3%. As it runs off, we are positioned to invest in higher yielding asset classes, driving NIM expansion.

今天早上，我們宣布達成協議，出售我們的信用卡業務，正如我之前所說，汽車是一項偉大的業務，我們擁有一支出色的團隊。然而，我相信我們實現青少年回報的途徑是透過專注的力量。同樣，我們在 1 月 31 日看到新的抵押貸款發放，並預計剩餘餘額將隨著時間的推移而耗盡。目前抵押貸款組合的收益率略高於 3%。隨著資金流失，我們將投資於收益率更高的資產類別，推動淨利差擴張。

Beyond these actions, we've taken steps to manage controllable expenses in 2025. During the quarter, we announced a workforce reduction which resulted in recognition of a $22 million restructuring charge. While it is not something we take lightly, this action is expected to contribute more than $60 million in annualized savings, drive positive operating leverage, and align the cost structure with our new streamlined footprint. We see tremendous opportunity in the businesses where we have demonstrated competitive advantage, attractive returns, and the scale necessary to succeed.

除了這些行動之外，我們還採取措施管理 2025 年的可控費用。本季度，我們宣布裁員，從而確認了 2,200 萬美元的重組費用。雖然我們不會掉以輕心，但這項行動預計將每年節省超過 6000 萬美元，推動積極的營運槓桿，並使成本結構與我們新的精簡足跡保持一致。我們在那些展現出競爭優勢、有吸引力的回報以及成功所需規模的業務中看到了巨大的機會。

Shifting gears a bit, we had a few reporting related updates worth mentioning. As Sean mentioned earlier, we have changed the deferral method of accounting for lease tax credits. This change was made retroactively and reduced retained earnings by approximately $300 million and CET1 by 20 basis points.

換個角度，我們有一些值得一提的報導相關更新。正如肖恩之前提到的，我們改變了租賃稅收抵免的遞延會計方法。這項變更是追溯性的，使留存收益減少了約 3 億美元，CET1 減少了 20 個基點。

Importantly, the impact of capital is net neutral in the medium term as the day one impact is earned back over the next few years to net interest income. In alignment with a more simplified Ally, we've also made updates to the corporate expense allocations and reporting segments.

重要的是，從中期來看，資本的影響是淨中性的，因為第一天的影響將在未來幾年內轉化為淨利息收入。為了與更簡化的盟友保持一致，我們也更新了公司費用分配和報告部分。

These changes are intended to provide greater transparency to investors, consistency in various allocations, and align with how we manage and evaluate dealer financial services, corporate finance, and deposits. Russ will cover these changes in more detail shortly.

這些變化旨在為投資者提供更大的透明度、各種分配的一致性，並與我們管理和評估經銷商金融服務、企業融資和存款的方式保持一致。Russ 很快就會更詳細地介紹這些變更。

Let's turn to page 7 to discuss our market leading franchises. Within auto finance, consumer originations of $39 billion were sourced from a record 14.6 million applications. Again, showcasing the strength of our mutually beneficial dealer relationships and the scale of our franchise. Origination yields of 10.4% were driven by strong application flow allows dynamic and selective underwriting. 44% of our originations were made of the highest credit quality tier positioning us for strong risk just returns in the years ahead.

讓我們翻到第 7 頁來討論我們市場領先的特許經營權。在汽車金融領域，創紀錄的 1,460 萬份申請中產生了 390 億美元的消費者資金。再次展示我們互惠互利的經銷商關係的實力和我們特許經營的規模。強勁的申請流程推動了 10.4% 的發行收益率，實現了動態和選擇性核保。我們 44% 的貸款來自最高信用品質級別，這使我們能夠在未來幾年獲得強勁的風險回報。

We remain committed to the success of our more than 20,000 dealers. I'm encouraged by the trends we're seeing in application flow to further strengthen and grow our position as the leading bank auto finance lender in the country. Insurance written premiums of $1.5 billion were the highest since our IPO as we benefited from new relationships, growth and inventory exposure, and synergies with our auto finance team.

我們仍致力於協助 20,000 多家經銷商取得成功。我對我們在申請流程中看到的趨勢感到鼓舞，這些趨勢進一步加強和發展了我們作為國內領先的銀行汽車金融貸款機構的地位。承保保費達到 15 億美元，是我們 IPO 以來的最高水平，因為我們受益於新的關係、成長和庫存敞口以及與汽車金融團隊的協同效應。

Corporate finance delivered record pre-tax income of more than $400 million and an ROE of 37% with zero net charge offs, demonstrating the quality of our loan book. This was a uniquely strong year in the corporate finance business. While we expect some normalization of credit in the near term, I'm quite confident the team will continue to deliver a creed of returns while prudently managing risk.

企業融資創造了超過 4 億美元的創紀錄稅前收入和 37% 的淨資產收益率，淨沖銷​​為零，證明了我們貸款帳簿的品質。今年是企業融資業務異常強勁的一年。雖然我們預期短期內信貸將實現一定程度的正常化，但我非常有信心團隊將繼續提供回報信條，同時審慎管理風險。

Our deposit franchise had another fantastic year. We've continued to invest to deliver best in class digital features and products, growing the customer value proposition beyond rate. And we added more than 230,000 new customers and now serve 3.3 million depositors with $143 billion in balances.

我們的存款特許經營權又度過了美好的一年。我們持續投資以提供一流的數位功能和產品，以超乎尋常的速度提升客戶價值主張。我們新增了超過 23 萬名新客戶，目前為 330 萬儲戶提供服務，餘額達 1,430 億美元。

Deposit balances were up $1 billion year over year, very consistent with our outlook in January and well aligned with what's needed to support the asset side of our balance sheet. Customer satisfaction of 90% and retention above 95% continue to lead the industry. In 2024, we grew engaged savers savings customers that leverage multiple core products and features by nearly 15%.

存款餘額年增 10 億美元，與我們 1 月的展望非常一致，也與支持資產負債表資產所需的資金完全一致。90%的客戶滿意度和95%以上的客戶保留率持續保持業界領先。2024 年，我們利用多種核心產品和功能的儲蓄客戶數量增加了近 15%。

Since 2019, we've increased engage savers from 300,000 to 1.3 million. Engaged savers now represent nearly 40% of the customer base and are generally less rate sensitive than our other depositors. Our culture of customer session has strengthened our deposit franchise, enable profitable growth in auto insurance and the corporate finance business.

自 2019 年以來，我們已將參與儲蓄者從 30 萬增加到 130 萬。目前，活躍儲戶佔客戶群的近 40%，他們對利率的敏感度普遍低於我們的其他儲戶。我們的客戶會議文化增強了我們的存款業務，實現了汽車保險和企業融資業務的獲利成長。

We are pivoting to a more focused approach that allocates capital to our core businesses where we have competitive advantage, it prioritizes efficiency and expense discipline, and prudently manages risk. I am confident that this should translate to mid-teens ROTC over time.

我們正在轉向一種更集中的方法，將資本分配給我們擁有競爭優勢的核心業務，優先考慮效率和費用紀律，並謹慎管理風險。我相信隨著時間的推移，這應該會轉化為青少年後備軍官訓練隊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Russ.

有了這個，我會把它交給拉斯。

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 8. Before I get into the results, I'll expand on changes we've made to expense allocations and reporting segments.

謝謝你，麥可。大家早安。我將從幻燈片 8 開始。在討論結果之前，我將詳細介紹我們對費用分配和報告部門所做的更改。

As Michael mentioned, these changes are intended to align to how we manage and evaluate our businesses. Our dealer financial services and corporate finance results now reflect 100% of our centralized functional cost. The business lines will no longer be allocated operating costs associated with the deposits platform.

正如邁克爾所提到的，這些變化旨在與我們管理和評估業務的方式保持一致。我們的經銷商金融服務和企業財務結果現在反映了我們 100% 的集中功能成本。此業務條線將不再分配與存款平台相關的營運成本。

This better aligns with our approach to funds transfer pricing which is primarily market based and match funds assets at origination. And mortgage finance results for the outstanding portfolio are now reflected in corporate and other. Also as discussed last quarter, our net interest income and income tax expense now reflect the deferral method of accounting for ev lease tax credits. Now let's review results.

這更符合我們的資金轉移定價方法，該方法主要基於市場並在發起時匹配基金資產。未償投資組合的抵押貸款融資結果現已反映在企業和其他方面。同樣如上季所討論的，我們的淨利息收入和所得稅費用現在反映了電動車租賃稅收抵免會計的遞延方法。現在讓我們回顧一下結果。

In the fourth quarter, net financing revenue excluding OID of $1.5 billion was in line with the prior year and prior quarter. We benefited from continued expansion in retail auto yields excluding the impact of hedges. And we benefited from the impact of lower deposit pricing.

第四季度，不包括 OID 的淨融資收入為 15 億美元，與去年同期和上一季持平。排除對沖影響後，我們受益於零售汽車收益率的持續擴張。我們受益於較低存款定價的影響。

Partially offset by lower yield on floating rate exposures quarter over quarter, reflecting the decrease in short term benchmark rates. Adjusted other revenue of $564 million was up 13% year over year, reflecting broad based momentum.

浮動利率風險敞口逐季下降的收益率部分抵消了這一影響，反映出短期基準利率的下降。調整後其他收入為 5.64 億美元，年增 13%，反映了基礎廣泛的動能。

Full year adjusted other revenue was up 14% higher than the 5% to 10% expectations set forth at the beginning of the year. Other revenue streams including insurance, smart auction, and consumer auto pass through programs continue to be a tailwind to fee revenue heading into 2025. Provision expense of $557 million dollars was down year over year driven by a few factors.

全年調整後其他收入成長 14%，高於年初設定的 5% 至 10% 的預期。進入 2025 年，包括保險、智慧拍賣和消費者汽車通行計畫在內的其他收入流將繼續成為收費收入的推動力。受多種因素影響，撥備費用較去年同期下降 5.57 億美元。

One, zero net charge off activity in our commercial portfolios. Two, lower consolidated net charge offs following the sale of our point of sale lending business early in the year. Three, a modest quarter-over-quarter decline in retail auto coverage rate following an increase in the prior quarter.

第一，我們的商業投資組合中的淨沖銷活動為零。第二，今年年初出售我們的銷售點貸款業務後，綜合淨沖銷額降低。第三，零售汽車覆蓋率繼上一季上升後，季減小幅下降。

We will discuss retail auto net charge offs in more detail later. Non-interest expense of $1.4 billion includes two one-time items, a partial write down of goodwill related to the pending sale of the credit card business. of $118 million, and a $22 million restructuring charge associated with the reduction in force. The head count actions position us for $60 million dollars in annualized savings next year.

我們稍後將更詳細地討論零售汽車淨沖銷。14 億美元的非利息支出包括兩個一次性項目，即與信用卡業務待出售​​相關的商譽的部分減記。 1.18 億美元，以及與裁減部隊相關的 2,200 萬美元重組費用。人員統計行動使我們明年可以節省 6000 萬美元的年化成本。

One time expense items totaling $140 million or $0.37 of EPS have been excluded from core pre tax results. This is consistent with our treatment of similar items in the past. Adjusted non-interest expense was up less than 2% year-over-year, primarily driven by growth in insurance (inaudible) and controllable expenses were down more than 1%, demonstrating commitment to cost discipline that will continue going forward.

總計 1.4 億美元或每股收益 0.37 美元的一次性費用項目已從核心稅前業績中排除。這與我們過去對類似項目的處理是一致的。調整後的非利息支出年增不到 2%，主要是由保險成長（聽不清楚）推動的，可控支出下降了 1% 以上，這表明我們對成本控制的承諾將繼續向前推進。

Our effective tax rate for the full year was 20%, reflecting the deferral method of accounting for EV tax lease credits. Our 0% tax rate within the quarter included impacts from prior state and international returns as well as standard year end true ups.

我們全年的有效稅率為 20%，反映了電動車稅收租賃抵免會計遞延方法。本季我們的 0% 稅率包括先前的州和國際回報以及標準年終真實成長的影響。

GAAP and adjusted EPS for the quarter were $0.26 and $0.78 respectively. Moving to slide 9. Net interest margin excluding oid of 3.33% increased one basis point from the prior quarter resulting in full year NIM of 3.3%. Expansion in retail auto yields, excluding the impact of hedges and decreasing deposit costs were partially offset by contractual repricing of floating rate exposures and lower lease gains.

本季 GAAP 和調整後每股收益分別為 0.26 美元和 0.78 美元。轉到投影片 9。扣除利息後的淨利差為 3.33%，較上一季增加 1 個基點，導致全年淨利差為 3.3%。零售汽車收益率的擴張（不包括對沖和存款成本下降的影響）被浮動利率風險敞口的合約重新定價和較低的租賃收益部分抵消。

Cost of funds decrease 17 basis points quarter over quarter driven by a 22 basis point decrease in deposit costs. Deposit pricing has been in line with expectations during the quarter. And we continue to expect a cumulative deposit data of around 70% over time. We have good momentum on both sides of the balance sheet from the multi year transformation of both our assets and liabilities.

由於存款成本下降 22 個基點，資金成本較上季下降 17 個基點。本季存款定價符合預期。我們繼續預計隨著時間的推移，累積存款數據將達到 70% 左右。由於我們的資產和負債的多年轉型，我們的資產負債表兩側都保持著良好的勢頭。

We continue to run off mortgage and securities balances with yields of approximately 3%, replacing them with retail auto and corporate finance loans, both currently yielding over 9%. On the other side of the balance sheet deposits, as a percentage of funding have increased to 90% from 70% in 2019. And the spread between cost of funds and Fed funds has improved significantly.

我們繼續用掉收益率約為 3% 的抵押貸款和證券餘額，並以零售汽車和企業融資貸款，目前兩者的收益率均超過 9%。另一方面，存款佔資金的比例已從 2019 年的 70% 增加到 90%。資金成本與聯邦基金之間的利差已顯著改善。

As we've successfully reached core funded status and enhanced the value proposition, we've been able to price our deposits favorably relative to our major competitors. Due to the improvement in spreads for both assets and liabilities, we're well positioned for margin expansion and sustainably higher nim over the medium term.

由於我們已成功達到核心融資地位並增強了價值主張，因此我們能夠相對於我們的主要競爭對手以更優惠的價格定價我們的存款。由於資產和負債利差的改善，我們有能力實現利潤率擴張和中期內持續較高的淨利差。

As Michael mentioned earlier, we have reached an agreement to sell our credit card business. Given the 20% plus yield on that book, a sale of the business impacts our medium term outlook for margin. However, the benefits from lower credit costs and operating expenses provides a substantial offset to lower margins. Taken together, an exit from the card business does not have a material impact on corporate tax income. There are many moving pieces that will impact our path to normalized margin most notably changes in interest rates and market pricing for deposits, but we remain confident in the trajectory.

正如邁克爾之前提到的，我們已經達成協議，出售我們的信用卡業務。鑑於該帳簿的收益率高達 20% 以上，出售該業務會影響我們的中期利潤率前景。然而，較低的信貸成本和營運費用帶來的好處大大抵消了較低的利潤率。總而言之，退出卡業務不會對企業稅收收入產生重大影響。有許多因素會影響我們實現利潤率正常化的道路，最顯著的是利率和存款市場定價的變化，但我們對這一軌跡仍然充滿信心。

Turning to page 10. CET1 of 9.8% represents over $4 billion of excess capital above our CV Minimum. The sale of Ally credit card is expected to add 40 basis points of CET1 at closing and $1 of adjusted tangible book value per share.

翻到第10頁。9.8% 的 CET1 意味著超出我們的 CV 最低限額的超額資本超過 40 億美元。出售 Ally 信用卡預計將使 CET1 收盤時增加 40 個基點，調整後每股有形帳面價值增加 1 美元。

We intend to redeploy that capital into a combination of growth in our core franchises, potential restructuring of the securities portfolio, and eventually share repurchases. As we mentioned earlier, we booked a $118 million goodwill impairment in 4Q related to the card business. We expect to book approximately $10 million to $20 million of additional one-time transaction related expenses as we progress towards closing.

我們打算將這些資本重新部署到核心特許經營業務的成長、證券投資組合的潛在重組以及最終的股票回購中。正如我們之前提到的，我們在第四季度計入了與卡片業務相關的 1.18 億美元商譽減損。隨著交易的進展，我們預計將記入約 1,000 萬至 2,000 萬美元的額外一次性交易相關費用。

Within the quarter, there were a couple of material moving pieces impacting capital. We issued our second credit linked note generating 16 basis points of CET1 at the time of sale. Demand was robust, leading to solid execution and demonstrating market appetite for the loans that were originating. And adoption of the deferral method of accounting for leases temporarily reduced CET1 by 20 basis points.

本季內，出現了一些影響資本的重大變動。我們發行了第二張信用掛鉤票據，在銷售時產生 16 個基點的 CET1。需求強勁，導致執行有力，並顯示出市場對原始貸款的興趣。採用遞延租賃會計法暫時將CET1降低了20個基點。

Looking ahead, we'll continue to remain opportunistic with respect to growing capital and thoughtful about how we deploy access capital over time. In the first quarter of 2025, we expect an approximately 20 basis point impact to CET1 from the final phasing of (inaudible). We recently announced our quarterly dividend of $0.30 for the first quarter of 2025, which remains consistent with the prior quarter.

展望未來，我們將繼續對不斷增長的資本保持機會主義態度，並考慮如何隨著時間的推移部署獲取資本。在 2025 年第一季度，我們預計最終階段對 CET1 的影響約為 20 個基點（聽不清楚）。我們最近宣布 2025 年第一季的季度股息為 0.30 美元，與上一季保持一致。

Including the impacts of AOCI, adjusted tangible book value per share is $47, up more than two times from 2014. We remain focused on tangible book value per share growth in the years ahead and driving shareholder value through disciplined capital deployment.

包括 AOCI 的影響，調整後每股有形帳面價值為 47 美元，比 2014 年成長兩倍多。我們仍然專注於未來幾年每股有形帳面價值的成長，並透過嚴格的資本部署來推動股東價值。

Let's turn to slide 11 to review asset quality trends. The consolidated net charge off rate of 159 basis points was up 9 basis points quarter over quarter. We continue to see solid credit performance in our commercial portfolios in the fourth quarter resulting in zero net charge offs in 2024. The year-over-year net charge off comparison includes $36 million of Ally lending activity in 4Q 2023.

讓我們轉向投影片 11 來回顧資產品質趨勢。綜合淨沖銷率為 159 個基點，較上季上升 9 個基點。我們持續看到第四季商業投資組合的穩健信貸表現，導致 2024 年淨沖銷為零。年比淨沖銷比較包括 2023 年第四季 3,600 萬美元的 Ally 貸款活動。

Full-year consolidated NCOs finished within OUR range of 1.4% to 1.5% provided a year ago driven by better-than-expected performance in our commercial portfolios. As we continue to be further removed from the unprecedented effects of the pandemic, including historically high inflation, we're seeing improving trends in consumer performance.

由於我們的商業投資組合表現優於預期，全年綜合 NCO 的成長率處於一年前 1.4% 至 1.5% 的範圍內。隨著我們繼續進一步擺脫疫情帶來的前所未有的影響，包括歷史上的高通膨，我們看到消費者表現的趨勢有所改善。

Retail, auto net charge offs of 234 basis points were up 10 basis points quarter over quarter. Typically, we would expect approximately 35 basis points of quarter-over-quarter increase tied to seasonality. Total loss rates were favorable in the quarter and were well below 2019 levels all year, reflecting a dynamic approach to collection strategy that's been effective at keeping consumers in their vehicles and reducing losses.

零售、汽車淨沖減 234 個基點，較上季上升 10 個基點。通常情況下，我們預期與季節性因素相關的季度環比增幅約為 35 個基點。本季的總損失率良好，遠低於 2019 年全年的水平，反映出動態的收集策略方法可以有效地讓消費者留在車內並減少損失。

We also had a strong fourth quarter for recovery given the strength in used vehicle values relative to our expectations. In the fourth quarter, we outperformed typical seasonality as procurement action, auction price stability, and easing inflation pressure increasingly benefited portfolio results. In terms of trends, we saw throughout the quarter, we saw stabilization of trends early in the quarter and we ended with a strong finish in December.

鑑於二手車價值相對於我們的預期強勁，我們第四季的復甦也表現強勁。在第四季度，我們的表現優於典型的季節性，因為採購行動、拍賣價格穩定和通膨壓力的緩解日益有利於投資組合績效。就趨勢而言，我們在整個季度都看到了趨勢，在季度初我們看到了趨勢的穩定，並在 12 月以強勁的表現結束了。

We closed the year with historically low flow to loss rates and with a stable used vehicle value backdrop that led to results better than expectations heading into December. Credit performance throughout 2024 was choppy. We certainly expect to benefit from portfolio turnover in 2025. But we acknowledge the macro environment remains uncertain.

我們以歷史最低的流量損失率和穩定的二手車價值背景結束了這一年，這導致 12 月的業績優於預期。2024 年全年的信貸表現波動較大。我們當然預計 2025 年將從投資組合週轉中受益。但我們承認宏觀環境仍然不確定。

In the bottom right, 30 day-plus accruing delinquencies increased 15 basis points quarter over quarter and we're down three basis points year over year. Late stage, delinquencies remain a key watch item. Given the increase in non-accrual loans we've been discussing throughout the year, we've enhanced our disclosure this quarter. We continue to show delinquency for the accruing only population but have added the corresponding 30 day [DQ] metric for the total portfolio which includes both accruing and non accruing loans.

在右下角，30 天以上的應計拖欠率較上月增加了 15 個基點，年減了 3 個基點。後期，拖欠仍然是一個關鍵的觀察項目。鑑於我們全年一直在討論的非應計貸款的增加，我們在本季度加強了揭露。我們繼續顯示應計人口的拖欠情況，但為總投資組合添加了相應的 30 天 [DQ] 指標，其中包括應計貸款和非應計貸款。

We believe both are helpful to investors and the total portfolio view aligns with how we manage the business from an operational and loss mitigation perspective. On slide 12, let's discuss the retail auto vintage credit trends. Actual and expected portfolio mix as well as lost contribution by vintage are shown on the top half of the page.

我們相信兩者對投資者都有幫助，並且整體投資組合觀點與我們從營運和減輕損失的角度管理業務的方式一致。在投影片 12 上，我們討論零售汽車老式信貸趨勢。頁面上半部顯示了實際和預期的投資組合組合以及按年份劃分的損失貢獻。

As we've discussed previously, the 2022 vintage is producing elevated losses relative to expectations at the time of origination across the consumer finance space. Ally's 2022 vintage comprised roughly 40% of portfolio losses in 2024 as the vintage worked through peak loss seasoning. As the portfolio continues to turn over, the '22 vintage will amortize down. That vintage is expected to comprise 10% of our retail auto portfolio by year end 2025, compared to 20% at year end 2024.

正如我們之前討論的那樣，2022 年的損失相對於整個消費金融領域發起時的預期有所增加。Ally 的 2022 年年份約佔 2024 年投資組合損失的 40%，因為該年份經歷了損失高峰期。隨著投資組合的持續週轉，22 年的攤銷將減少。預計到 2025 年底，該年份將占我們零售汽車投資組合的 10%，而 2024 年底這一比例為 20%。

Vintage delinquency trends are on the bottom left. Our 2023 vintage continues to outperform 2022, after equivalent months on block. We remain encouraged by the early trends in the 2024 vintage which is outperforming the 2023 vintage after 12 months on bloc. The table on the bottom right highlights improvement in credit profile which has resulted from the curtailment actions we've taken. We expect these curtailment actions to mitigate losses in future periods and drive strong risk adjusted returns.

老式犯罪趨勢位於左下角。我們 2023 年份的表現持續優於 2022 年，此前幾個月表現相當。我們仍然對 2024 年份的早期趨勢感到鼓舞，在 12 個月後，該年份的表現優於 2023 年份。右下角的表格突顯了我們採取的削減行動帶來的信用狀況的改善。我們預計這些削減行動將減輕未來時期的損失並帶來強勁的風險調整回報。

Credit trends have improved recently and give us confidence in our path to normalize net charge offs below 2%. We continue to carry an elevated population of late stage delinquent accounts, which makes it difficult to provide precise timing and point estimates. But we remain confident that our curtailment actions and a constructive macro position us for lower losses over time.

信貸趨勢最近有所改善，這讓我們對將淨沖銷率正常化到低於 2% 的道路充滿信心。我們的後期拖欠帳戶數量繼續增加，這使得我們很難提供精確的時間和點估計。但我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的限電行動和建設性的宏觀政策將使我們能夠降低損失。

Moving to slide 13, consolidated coverage increased four basis points and retail auto coverage decreased two basis points. The increase in consolidated coverage rates were largely driven by lower balances in commercial auto and corporate finance. The decrease in the retail auto coverage rate was driven by a partial release of the hurricane reserve recorded in the prior quarter.

轉向幻燈片 13，綜合覆蓋率增加了 4 個基點，零售汽車覆蓋率下降了 2 個基點。綜合覆蓋率的增加主要是由於商用汽車和企業融資餘額下降所致。零售汽車保險覆蓋率的下降是由於上一季記錄的颶風儲備金的部分釋放所致。

Moving to slide 14 to review auto segment highlights. Pre-tax income of $397 million was lower year over year, primarily driven by lower lease revenue and gains, slightly lower average earning assets, and higher servicing related expenses. On the bottom left, we highlighted the trajectory of retail auto portfolio yield excluding the impact from hedges yields are up 10 basis points quarter over quarter and 66 basis points. year over year.

前往投影片 14 以查看自動分段亮點。稅前收入年減 3.97 億美元，主要是因為租賃收入和收益減少、平均獲利資產略有下降以及服務相關費用增加。在左下角，我們強調了零售汽車投資組合收益率的軌跡，排除對沖收益率的影響，收益率環比上升 10 個基點，環比上升 66 個基點。年復一年。

Fourth quarter originated yield of 9.6% was down quarter over quarter, driven by a decrease in benchmark rates and an increase in [S-Tier] Originations from 43% to 49%. While the fourth quarter usually drives an uptick in credit quality, our capture rates and superprime were above our expectations for much of the quarter.

第四季的原始收益率為 9.6%，環比下降，原因是基準利率下降以及 [S 級] 原始收益率從 43% 增加到 49%。雖然第四季度通常會推動信貸品質的上升，但我們的捕獲率和超級貸款在本季的大部分時間都高於我們的預期。

We're pleased with the return profile of what we originated but have taken action the pricing side that will result in lower S-Tier in the first quarter. We've already seen the impact of this with our originations mix exiting the year closer to what we originated for most of 2024.

我們對我們最初的回報狀況感到滿意，但我們已經在定價方面採取了行動，這將導致第一季 S 級的下降。我們已經看到了這一點的影響，今年我們的創始組合接近 2024 年大部分時間的創始組合。

And as we've mentioned before, we expect to gradually unwind curtailment actions over time to a more normalized next. The unwind of curtailment actions will partially offset benchmark rate driven price decreases over the long term. The timing of curtailment unwind remains fluid and will be informed by front book portfolio performance, which has begun to show signs of improvement.

正如我們之前提到的，我們預期隨著時間的推移，逐步放鬆限電行動，使下一步更加正常化。從長遠來看，限電行動的放鬆將部分抵消基準利率驅動的價格下跌。限電解除的時機仍然不穩定，並將由前帳投資組合的表現決定，該投資組合的表現已開始顯示出改善的跡象。

Lease trends are in the bottom right. Gains of $3 million in the fourth quarter reflect lower lease termination volume quarter over quarter and softer lease gains per vehicle driven by vehicle termination next. We expect lease gains to remain low in the first quarter and increase modestly in the spring and summer due to typical seasonality as well as vehicle termination.

租賃趨勢位於右下角。第四季 300 萬美元的收益反映了租賃終止量環比下降以及接下來車輛終止導致的每輛車租賃收益的疲軟。我們預計第一季的租賃收益將保持在較低水平，並在春季和夏季因典型的季節性和車輛終止而小幅增長。

There turning to insurance in slide 15. Corporate tax income was up $25 million year over year driven by higher earned premiums. Total written premiums of $390 million reflect the continued momentum of business trends in TNC and F&I products. Growth in P&C written premiums Of $40 million year over year as supported by new OEM relationships and recovering inventory levels. Insurance losses of $116 million dollars up $23 million year-over-year are in line with expectations and are more than offset by higher revenues.

第 15 張投影片談到了保險。由於賺取的保費增加，企業稅收收入年增 2,500 萬美元。3.9 億美元的承保保費總額反映了 TNC 和 F&I 產品業務趨勢的持續成長動能。在新的 OEM 關係和恢復的庫存水準的支持下，財產保險承保保費年增 4,000 萬美元。保險損失為 1.16 億美元，年增 2,300 萬美元，符合預期，並被收入的增加所抵消。

Insurance was a key driver of our fee revenue expansion in 2024. And we remain encouraged by the opportunity to grow this business over time by leveraging synergies with our auto finance business. Corporate finance results are on slide 16. Core pre tax income of $120 million dollars demonstrated another. strong quarter for corporate finance.

保險是我們 2024 年費用收入擴張的關鍵驅動力。我們仍然對透過利用與我們的汽車金融業務的協同效應來不斷發展這項業務的機會感到鼓舞。公司財務結果請見投影片 16。1.2 億美元的核心稅前收入證明了另一個事實。企業融資強勁的季度。

While not shown on the page, corporate finance surpassed $400 million of earnings in 2024, a record in the 25-year history of business. End of period, HFI loans of $9.6 billion are well diversified in virtually all first liens. And we remain well positioned from a credit standpoint. On the bottom of the page, we highlight the accretive return profile of the corporate finance business.

雖然頁面上沒有顯示，但企業財務收入在 2024 年超過了 4 億美元，創下了 25 年商業史上的紀錄。期末，96 億美元的 HFI 貸款在幾乎所有第一留置權方面都實現了充分多元化。從信用角度來看，我們仍然處於有利地位。在頁面底部，我們重點介紹了企業融資業務的增值回報情況。

2024 performance was in part due to exceptionally strong credit performance resulting in zero net charge offs for the year. We expect NCO performance to normalize and are confident the business will continue to drive solid returns. Corporate finance remains an attractive business for prudent growth. I will provide an update on our 2025 outlook on slide 17.

2024 年業績的部分原因是信貸表現異常強勁，導致當年淨沖銷為零。我們預計 NCO 業績將正常化，並相信該業務將繼續帶來穩健的回報。企業融資仍然是一項對審慎成長具有吸引力的業務。我將在幻燈片 17 上提供 2025 年展望的最新資訊。

We've shown 2025, assuming credit card operations for a full year largely for comparability purposes with 2024. We expect the sale of the card business to close in the second quarter and are providing a 2025 pro forma that assumes a sale on April 1. We expect 2025 NIM of approximately 3.4% to. 3.5%. Given the 20% yields on credit card receivables, the sale of allied credit card has impacted our near term NIM outlook by approximately 15 basis points. That would be approximately 20 basis points on an annualized basis.

我們展示了 2025 年，假設信用卡業務為一整年，主要是為了與 2024 年進行比較。我們預計卡片業務的出售將在第二季完成，並提供 2025 年預估，假設出售將於 4 月 1 日進行。我們預計 2025 年淨利差約為 3.4%。3.5%。鑑於信用卡應收帳款的收益率為 20%，聯合信用卡的出售已對我們的近期淨利差前景產生了約 15 個基點的影響。以年化計算，這大約是 20 個基點。

Importantly, the impact of NIM is offset by lower credit costs and expenses and our medium term outlook for midteens ROTC remains unchanged. The range for NIM reflects the certain path of interest rates and deposit competition. Margin should be flat plus or minus in the first quarter, as we recognize the full quarter impact of four key rate cuts on floating rate exposures. We expect to position ourselves competitively during the first quarter to capture incremental money in motion as deposit availability generally increases due to tax refunds, year-end payouts, and changes in consumer behavior.

重要的是，淨利差的影響被較低的信貸成本和費用所抵消，我們對青少年後備軍官訓練隊的中期前景保持不變。淨利差的區間反映了利率和存款競爭的某一路徑。第一季的保證金應與正負持平，因為我們認識到四次關鍵降息對浮動利率風險敞口的整個季度影響。由於退稅、年終支出和消費者行為的變化，存款可用性普遍增加，我們預計在第一季保持競爭優勢，以獲取增量資金。

Importantly, we see Margin exiting 2025 higher than the full year guide, given our starting point and a stable one key margin. We expect continued momentum in insurance smart auction and auto pass through programs to increase other revenue. However, other revenues is expected to be flat year over year, as we will see lower fee revenue from the credit card business following in sale.

重要的是，考慮到我們的起點和穩定的一個關鍵利潤率，我們認為 2025 年的利潤率高於全年指導值。我們預計保險智慧拍賣和汽車通行計畫將繼續保持強勁勢頭，以增加其他收入。然而，其他收入預計將同比持平，因為我們將看到信用卡業務出售後的費用收入下降。

In terms of credit, we see retail auto net charge offs of 2% to 2.25%. We are exiting the year under favorable conditions, which led to outperformance on both frequency and severity. On the frequency side, while we enter the fourth quarter with elevated levels of delinquency, the collections enhancements implemented within our servicing Organization are working.

在信貸方面，我們預計零售汽車淨沖銷為 2% 至 2.25%。我們在有利的條件下結束這一年，這導致我們在頻率和嚴重性方面都表現出色。在頻率方面，雖然我們進入第四季時拖欠率有所上升，但我們服務組織內實施的催收增強措施正在發揮作用。

These loss mitigation strategies are keeping people in their vehicles, and we exited the year with historically low flow to loss rates. Additionally, our newer vintages are performing better than assumed. With respect to severity, used vehicle prices were approximately 4% better than what we assumed in our October update.

這些減少損失的策略讓人們留在車裡，我們以歷史最低的流量損失率結束了這一年。此外，我們的新年份酒的表現比想像的要好。就嚴重程度而言，二手車價格比我們在 10 月更新中假設的價格高出約 4%。

Turning to expectations for 2025, our range reflects that we are still operating through an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And that we continue to carry elevated levels of late stage delinquency. It also takes into consideration the vintage dynamics which are an important catalyst that gives us confidence that we are structurally headed to losses normalizing lower.

談到 2025 年的預期，我們的區間反映出我們仍在不確定的宏觀經濟環境中運作。我們的晚期犯罪率持續升高。它也考慮了過去的動態，這是一個重要的催化劑，使我們有信心從結構上走向虧損正常化較低。

Mid point of the range It seems a slight increase in float to loss rates coming off historic lows in the fourth quarter. If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, we could see delinquencies increase, total loss rates worsen or used vehicle value soften beyond our current expectations. Any degradation and conditions or if our servicing strategies become less effective, our losses could migrate higher than the midpoint.

範圍的中點 第四季的浮動損失率似乎從歷史低點略有上升。如果宏觀經濟狀況惡化，我們可能會看到拖欠率增加、總損失率惡化或二手車價值軟化超出我們目前的預期。任何退化和條件，或者如果我們的服務策略變得不那麼有效，我們的損失可能會高於中點。

Conversely, we see a path to lower the midpoint assuming delinquencies stabilize. 4Q total the loss rates hold or improve further or used vehicle values continue to outperform expectations. In closing on retail auto credit, it's important to note that monthly and quarterly variations will continue. So we remain highly confident in what we see as a trend normalizing lower.

相反，假設拖欠率穩定，我們看到了降低中點的途徑。第四季總損失率保持不變或進一步改善，或二手車價值繼續跑贏預期。在結束零售汽車信貸時，值得注意的是，月度和季度的變化將繼續存在。因此，我們對我們所看到的正常化走低趨勢仍然充滿信心。

Transitioning to consolidated NCOs. Despite the pressure we saw in retail auto last year, our consolidated loss rate of 1.48% in 2024 was in line with the original guidance we provided last January. As we saw uniquely strong performance across the entire commercial loan portfolio. What we feel great about the state of those portfolios, our full year guidance does assume a return to more normalized losses.

過渡到合併 NCO。儘管去年零售汽車面臨壓力，但 2024 年綜合虧損率為 1.48%，與我們去年 1 月提供的初步指引一致。正如我們看到整個商業貸款組合的獨特強勁表現。我們對這些投資組合的狀況感到滿意，但我們的全年指導確實假設損失會回歸到更正常化的水平。

We see expense growth flat in 2025, including the impact of exiting the credit card business. Increases in areas directly contributing to revenue generation and managing losses are offset by expense savings from the sale of the credit card business and headcount actions that we mentioned earlier.

我們預計 2025 年費用成長將持平，其中包括退出信用卡業務的影響。直接有助於創造收入和管理損失的領域的成長被我們之前提到的信用卡業務出售和人員編制行動所節省的費用所抵消。

As you all know, the first quarter always has seasonal compensation items. So we expect link quarter expenses to be up 6% to 7% which would put them in line with prior year. Our outlook for revenue expansion and tightly managed expenses positions us for positive operating level in 2025 and over the medium term. Earning assets are expected to be flat on average year over year.

眾所周知，第一季總是有季節性補償項目。因此，我們預計鏈路季度費用將成長 6% 至 7%，這將與去年持平。我們對收入擴張和嚴格管理費用的展望使我們在 2025 年及中期內實現積極的營運水準。獲利資產預計將與去年同期持平。

Importantly, the favorable asset mix shift underpinning relatively flat earning assets will be a tailwind to margin 2025 and the medium term. Given the accounting change to deferral method, we're estimating a normalized tax rate of 22% to 20 3%. I've mentioned a few things related to first quarter including relatively stable NIM, seasonal compensation items, and of course, two fewer days in the quarter.

重要的是，支撐收益相對平穩的資產的有利資產組合轉變將成為 2025 年和中期利潤率的推動力。鑑於遞延法的會計變更，我們估計標準化稅率為 22% 至 20 3%。我提到了一些與第一季相關的事情，包括相對穩定的淨利差、季節性補償項目，當然還有該季度減少的兩天。

We feel good about our earnings trajectory heading into 2026. Before I turn it over to Michael, I want to reiterate my confidence in our midteens ROE outlook. Our path to mid teens returns is predicated on three primary drivers that remain unchanged.

我們對 2026 年的獲利軌跡感到滿意。在我把它交給邁克爾之前，我想重申我對我們十幾歲的 ROE 前景的信心。我們通往青少年回報率的道路取決於三個保持不變的主要驅動因素。

First, margin expansion. As we covered, we're well positioned in various interest rate scenarios driven by underlying business trends in auto, corporate finance, and deposits. Second, normalization of retail auto NCOs to below 2%, which implies a consolidated net loss rate of approximately 1.3%, which is about 15 basis points lower than it would be with card.

第一，利潤率擴張。正如我們所介紹的，我們在汽車、企業融資和存款等基本業務趨勢驅動的各種利率情境中處於有利地位。其次，零售汽車 NCO 正常化至 2% 以下，這意味著綜合淨損失率約為 1.3%，比信用卡低約 15 個基點。

The trends we saw in the fourth quarter driven by our actions to curtail risk further increases my confidence in losses improving over time. Finally, our commitment to disciplined resource allocation in terms of expenses and capital, which is firm. The exact timing of when we achieve our return targets will be driven by a number of factors. However. We remain confident in our ability to execute against our plan and drive long term shareholder value.

我們在第四季度看到的由我們遏制風險的行動推動的趨勢進一步增強了我對損失隨著時間的推移而改善的信心。最後，我們堅定地承諾在支出和資本方面嚴格執行資源分配。我們實現回報目標的確切時間將由許多因素決定。然而。我們對執行計劃和推動長期股東價值的能力仍然充滿信心。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Michael.

說到這裡，我會把它轉回給麥可。

Well, thank you, Russ. Before we wrap up, I believe it's important to highlight the progress we've made as a publicly traded company. Last month, we celebrated the 10-year anniversary of our IPO at the New York Stock Exchange. Our team had the pleasure of ringing the opening bell.

好吧，謝謝你，拉斯。在結束之前，我認為有必要強調我們作為一家上市公司所取得的進展。上個月，我們慶祝了在紐約證券交易所首次公開募股十週年。我們的團隊很高興敲響了開幕鐘。

It gave me the opportunity to reflect on our legacy and how far we've come as an organization. Our Do It Right culture spans all layers of the organization and serves as the foundation of our success. We've built a valuable nationally recognized brand centered on being a relentless ally for our customers. And over the years, we've transformed both sides of the balance sheet to make us a structurally more profitable company.

它讓我有機會反思我們的遺產以及我們作為一個組織已經走了多遠。我們的「正確行事」文化涵蓋組織的各個層面，是我們成功的基礎。我們建立了一個有價值的全國公認品牌，致力於成為客戶的堅定盟友。多年來，我們已經改變了資產負債表的兩側，使我們成為一家結構上盈利能力更高的公司。

Since we launched Ally Bank 15 years ago, we've grown to be the largest all digital US direct bank serving more than 3 million customers and over $140 billion of retail deposits. We are at the forefront of the shift in consumer preferences towards the digital banking and we firmly establish a reputation as a leading innovative digital bank that offers compelling rates, best-in-class digital experiences, and exceptional service.

自 15 年前推出 Ally Bank 以來，我們已發展成為美國最大的全數位直接銀行，為超過 300 萬客戶和超過 1,400 億美元的零售存款提供服務。我們處於消費者偏好向數位銀行轉變的前沿，並牢固樹立了領先創新數位銀行的聲譽，提供令人信服的利率、一流的數位體驗和卓越的服務。

The dealer financial services business has transformed from a captive auto finance company to a leading full service independent auto lender, offering a wide range of products and services to more than 20,000 dealers.

經銷商金融服務業務已從自有汽車金融公司轉型為領先的全方位服務獨立汽車貸款機構，為超過 20,000 家經銷商提供廣泛的產品和服務。

We've established ourselves as a full spectrum franchise with superior scale technology and deeply entrenched relationships with dealers across nearly all OEMs, while continuing to partner with those who are driving the evolution of the auto industry.

我們已經將自己打造成全方位的特許經營商，擁有卓越的規模技術，並與幾乎所有原始設備製造商的經銷商建立了牢固的關係，同時繼續與那些推動汽車行業發展的人合作。

Corporate finance has a 25 year proven track record has navigated multiple business and credit cycles. As we look ahead, I remain incredibly excited about the future of Ally. We are pursuing a more focused approach in our core businesses where we have demonstrated competitive advantages, dealer financial services, corporate finance, and deposits.

企業融資擁有 25 年的良好記錄，經歷了多個商業和信貸週期。展望未來，我對 Ally 的未來仍然感到非常興奮。我們正在我們的核心業務、經銷商金融服務、企業融資和存款方面採取更集中的方法，我們已經在這些業務中展現了競爭優勢。

We are pivoting to increased focus on a few core businesses that have durable and diversified revenue streams, attractive returns, and relevant scale. Dealer financial services, insurance, smart auction, and our consumer auto pass through programs have been increasing fee revenue which now exceeds $2 billion per year, up more than 50% since 2014. Corporate finances help for investment portfolio has grown to $10 billion from roughly $5 billion in 2019.

我們正在轉向更加關註一些具有持久且多元化的收入來源、有吸引力的回報和相關規模的核心業務。經銷商金融服務、保險、智慧拍賣和我們的消費者汽車通行計畫一直在增加費用收入，目前每年超過 20 億美元，自 2014 年以來成長了 50% 以上。企業財務對投資組合的幫助已從 2019 年的約 50 億美元增至 100 億美元。

I believe the power of focus in our core business will increase efficiency, reduce complexity and risk, and align our resources, the opportunities that drive the most value for our stakeholders. As we launch the next chapter of Ally's evolution, we will ensure our culture remains aligned with a relentless focus on customers, communities, employees, and shareholders.

我相信，專注於我們核心業務的力量將提高效率，降低複雜性和風險，並調整我們的資源，為我們的利害關係人帶來最大價值的機會。當我們開啟 Ally 發展的下一個篇章時，我們將確保我們的文化與對客戶、社區、員工和股東的不懈關注保持一致。

We will strive to be one of the most relevant and creatively disruptive brands in banking. We will invest in technology that powers dealer and customer centric products and services. And most importantly, we expect this focus will improve financial results to deliver compelling returns.

我們將努力成為銀行業最具相關性和最具創造性顛覆性的品牌之一。我們將投資於為經銷商和以客戶為中心的產品和服務提供動力的技術。最重要的是，我們預期這項重點將改善財務業績，帶來令人矚目的回報。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Sean for Q&A.

接下來，我會將其交給 Sean 進行問答。

Thank you, Michael. As we head into Q&A, we do ask that participants limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Daniel, please begin the Q&A.

謝謝你，麥可。當我們進入問答階段時，我們確實要求參與者將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。丹尼爾，請開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

瑞恩·納什，高盛。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning, Ryan.

早安，瑞安。

So Russ, maybe to start on credit. You highlighted the better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter due to a handful of items like recoveries, flow to loss. And if I think about the fourth quarter loss rate, it feels like you're at or slightly below a 2% seasonally adjusted loss rate. When I look at the slides, slide 12, you show the problem vintages are becoming smaller. The new ones are outperforming. You've continued to move up in a tier. So I guess my question is, given the guide of 2% to 2.25%, just how do you see -- and I know you gave a lot of color when you were going through them. But how do you see losses progressing? And could we actually exit the you're at a level that is below that 2% seasonally adjusted loss rate?

所以，拉斯，也許要從賒帳開始。您強調了第四季的業績好於預期，原因是復甦、虧損等少數項目。如果我考慮第四季的損失率，感覺就像是處於或略低於 2% 的季節性調整損失率。當我看投影片 12 時，您發現問題年份正在變得越來越小。新的表現出色。您的等級繼續上升。所以我想我的問題是，考慮到 2% 到 2.25% 的指導，你是如何看待的——我知道你在經歷它們時給出了很多色彩。但您如何看待損失的進展？我們真的可以在低於 2% 季節性調整損失率的水平退出嗎？

Great. Thanks, Ryan, for the question. I appreciate that. And as you know, as you've seen, our outlook in credit has been choppy throughout the year. And I'd say your observations on fourth quarter are mostly correct. We saw favorable flow to loss trends. We saw favorability in severity. And as you pointed out, we started the quarter with elevated levels of delinquency as we've been running at elevated levels of delinquency throughout 2024.

偉大的。謝謝瑞安提出的問題。我很欣賞這一點。如您所知，正如您所看到的，我們的信貸前景全年一直不穩定。我想說你對第四季的觀察大多是正確的。我們看到了有利的虧損趨勢。我們在嚴厲中看到了好感。正如您所指出的，我們在本季開始的拖欠率有所上升，因為我們在 2024 年全年的拖欠率一直在上升。

When you kind of look at the seasonality, you're right. We saw improvement in what we would call the seasonally adjusted annualized loss rate in the quarter. I'd still characterize it as north of 2%, where I think you had said it was 2% or below. So it's probably not quite as good as you implied but certainly favorable, certainly favorable to what we were seeing in the third quarter. where we had highlighted NCOs that were running 10 basis points above our expectations and delinquencies that were running 20 basis points above our expectations based on seasonality and portfolio turnover.

當你看看季節性時，你是對的。我們看到本季的季節性調整年化損失率有所改善。我仍然將其描述為 2% 以上，而我認為您曾說過它是 2% 或更低。因此，它可能不如您暗示的那麼好，但肯定是有利的，肯定有利於我們在第三季度看到的情況。根據季節性和投資組合週轉率，我們重點強調了 NCO 的運作情況超出我們的預期 10 個基點，而拖欠情況則超出我們的預期 20 個基點。

As I look forward, we've given the range of 2% to 2.25% on NCOs. And I'd say, as I think about that range, it's important to think about the context in terms of the elevated levels of delinquencies that we've been seeing as well as that favorability we saw in flow to loss in the quarter and on severity. And I'd say towards the midpoint of the range, we've assumed that there's some reversion on flow to loss rates. Obviously, we have good visibility into where we're starting the year in terms of delinquencies, but we've assumed some reversion, so some unfavorability in flow to loss rates. And we've assumed kind of more or less stable used car values supporting us on the severity side.

正如我所期待的，我們對 NCO 的稅率範圍是 2% 到 2.25%。我想說，當我考慮這個範圍時，重要的是要考慮我們所看到的拖欠水平升高以及我們在本季度和以後的虧損流中看到的有利程度的背景。我想說的是，在該範圍的中點，我們假設流量與損失率有一定程度的迴歸。顯然，我們對今年開始的拖欠率有很好的了解，但我們假設了一些回歸，因此流量損失率有些不利。我們假設二手車價值或多或少穩定，在嚴重性方面支持我們。

Now as you think about the range either up or down, maybe I'll start with some of the things that could affect us unfavorably on the downside. So to the extent that flow to loss rates revert, for example, in the context of a macro that weakens -- or to the extent that our collection become -- our collections methods become less effective or in an environment where used car prices deteriorate, you could see either of those things kind of pushing us towards the high end.

現在，當你考慮上漲或下跌的範圍時，也許我會從一些可能對我們產生不利影響的因素開始。因此，如果流向損失率恢復，例如，在宏觀經濟疲軟的情況下，或者在我們的收集變得不那麼有效的情況下，或者在二手車價格惡化的環境中，我們的收集方法變得不那麼有效，你可以看到這兩件事都在推動我們走向高端。

On the other hand, if we continue to see flow to loss rates like we saw in December or potentially even they continue their current path of improvement and used car prices remain constructive in the context of a favorable macro, that could drive us towards the low end of the range that we've provided.

另一方面，如果我們繼續看到像 12 月那樣的損失率，甚至有可能繼續當前的改善之路，並且二手車價格在有利的宏觀背景下保持建設性，這可能會推動我們走向低點我們提供的範圍的末端。

Got it. And then maybe as my follow-up, a two-part question. Post the sale of the card business, I think you highlighted 40 basis points of capital. And even with CECL day 1, it should put you above 10%. And I know in your remarks, Russ, you talked about a handful of potential uses, growth. And then you talked about securities restructuring. So my first question, can you maybe just give more color in terms of like what the size and parameters of a restructuring could be?

知道了。然後也許作為我的後續問題，一個由兩部分組成的問題。在出售信用卡業務後，我認為您強調了 40 個基點的資本。即使使用 CECL 第 1 天，您的成績也應該高於 10%。我知道拉斯在您的演講中談到了一些潛在的用途和成長。然後您談到了證券重組。所以我的第一個問題是，您能否就重組的規模和參數提供更多資訊？

And then post the sale of the card, Russ,, you talked about being positioned for a sustainably higher NIM. Do you still believe Ally is a 4% NIM company? And what are the drivers to getting there? And if not, what do you think the more normal NIM of the company is?

然後在卡的銷售後，Russ，您談到了定位於可持續更高的淨息差。你還相信Ally是一家淨利差4%的公司嗎？實現這目標的驅動因素是什麼？如果不是，您認為公司比較正常的淨利差是多少？

Great. Thanks, Ryan. Maybe I'll start on capital. As we said before, our management target is a 9% CET1. There's some uncertainty around the regulatory environment, particularly around AOCI and how that's going to be treated going forward. Given that uncertainty, and given the volatility that the inclusion of AOCI would introduce to our CET1 levels, we've said that where we typically run at a 20 to 30 basis point buffer to that management target of 9%, we think that buffer needs to be fatter.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。也許我會從資本開始。正如我們之前所說，我們的管理目標是9％的CET1。監管環境存在一些不確定性，特別是 AOCI 以及未來將如何對待它。考慮到這種不確定性，並考慮到納入 AOCI 會為我們的 CET1 水平帶來波動，我們已經說過，我們通常以 20 到 30 個基點的緩衝來達到 9% 的管理目標，我們認為緩衝需要變得更胖。

And so just to give you a little bit of context just in terms of kind of how we're currently thinking about capital. Certainly, the card sale is going to increase our flexibility around our capital. And so as we think about that increased flexibility, our number one priority is investing in our core businesses. And as we've noted throughout the year, we're being really thoughtful and really disciplined around how we deploy capital to get to risk-adjusted returns that are accretive to our business. And so we're going to continue with that.

因此，只是為了向您提供一些有關我們目前如何思考資本的背景資訊。當然，信用卡銷售將增加我們資本的靈活性。因此，當我們考慮增加靈活性時，我們的首要任務是投資我們的核心業務。正如我們全年所指出的，我們在如何部署資本以獲得對我們的業務有利的風險調整回報方面非常深思熟慮和非常嚴格。所以我們將繼續這樣做。

Now aside from investing in the core businesses, we've talked about the possibility of some restructuring the securities portfolio and eventually capital returned through share repurchases. As you know, Ally historically has used share repurchases as a way of returning capital, and we look forward to getting back to that. And I'd say, again, the capital flexibility that we've been building over the course of the last year, obviously, from the card sale, from the lending sale, from the CRT transactions that we've been executing over the course of the year, all those things point to greater capital flexibility.

現在，除了投資核心業務之外，我們還討論了重組證券投資組合併最終透過股票回購返還資本的可能性。如您所知，Ally 歷來使用股票回購作為資本返還的一種方式，我們期待回到這一點。我想再說一遍，我們在過去一年中一直在建立的資本靈活性，顯然，來自卡片銷售、貸款銷售、我們在過去一年中執行的 CRT 交易今年，所有這些都表明資本靈活性更大。

And look, as we evaluate the alternatives, we'll be very much focused on shareholder value and on what's going to drive us in terms of risk-adjusted return, whether that is whether that is investing in the core business and looking at the risk-adjusted return we can get there or it's looking at restructuring of the securities portfolio and looking at the NIM pickup and ultimately, the payback that we can get from that activity. But you can expect a continuation of the capital discipline that we've been talking about all year long.

看，當我們評估替代方案時，我們將非常關注股東價值以及在風險調整回報方面推動我們的因素，無論是投資核心業務還是關注風險-我們可以達到的調整後的回報，或者它正在考慮證券投資組合的重組，並考慮淨利差的回升，以及最終我們可以從該活動中獲得的回報。但你可以期待我們一整年都在談論的資本紀律將會持續下去。

On your 4% NIM, I guess, your follow-up to your follow-up question. Look, I would say, look, the -- we're highly confident in our trajectory and nothing's changed in terms of dynamics on our balance sheet and in our businesses that point to NIM increasing over time. All that being said, as you pointed out, the sale of the card business will take about 15 basis points off of NIM this year, 20 basis points on an annualized basis. But it's important to note that with that we're also shedding expenses and then our credit costs also come down. And so the net impact of credit card is a push from an earnings perspective.

我想，關於你的 4% NIM，你對你的後續問題的後續。聽著，我想說，聽著，我們對自己的發展軌跡非常有信心，我們的資產負債表和業務動態沒有任何變化，這表明淨息差隨著時間的推移而增加。儘管如此，正如您所指出的，卡片業務的出售將使今年的淨利差減少約 15 個基點，按年化計算減少 20 個基點。但值得注意的是，我們也削減了開支，然後我們的信貸成本也下降了。因此，從獲利角度來看，信用卡的淨影響是一種推動力。

And so when you think about that -- we talked about that 4% NIM, 2% loss rate on retail auto, continued discipline around expenses and capital. In order to support a mid-teens ROTCE, I would say the 4% NIM is no longer required to support that mid-teens ROTCE. It's somewhere in the high 3s. And so we're no longer banking on getting to that 4% NIM. All that being said, I wouldn't take 4% NIM off the page. It's certainly -- as you kind of think about the dynamics on our balance sheet, even without card, it's certainly something that we could deliver. But we're not banking on it at this point.

因此，當你想到這一點時，我們談到了 4% 的淨利差、零售汽車 2% 的損失率、對費用和資本的持續約束。為了支持青少年的 ROTCE，我認為不再需要 4% 的 NIM 來支持青少年的 ROTCE。它位於高 3 的某個位置。因此，我們不再指望達到 4% 的淨利差。話雖這麼說，我不會從頁面上扣除 4% 的淨利差。這是肯定的——當你思考我們資產負債表上的動態時，即使沒有信用卡，這肯定是我們可以提供的東西。但目前我們並不指望它。

I think something in the high-threes, again, with retail auto coming to 2% or lower on NCOs and continued discipline around capital and expenses, we think those things are adequate to support our mid-teens ROTCE aspirations going forward.

我認為，隨著零售汽車 NCO 的比例達到 2% 或更低，以及對資本和支出的持續約束，我們認為這些事情足以支持我們未來的青少年 ROTCE 願望。

I'm at a follow up. So thank you, Russ.

我正在跟進。所以謝謝你，拉斯。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑·薩赫拉尼 (Sanjay Sakhrani)，KBW。

I heard, Russ, you talked about some of the movements in the originated yield this quarter and expecting to reprice higher. I'm just curious, how much of this is just sort of the selection of consumers you're getting versus competition? I know like Capital One is coming back into the market, some other banks have talked about. Maybe you can just talk about the competitive dynamics.

拉斯，我聽說你談到了本季原始收益率的一些變動，並預計會重新定價更高。我只是很好奇，其中有多少是你對消費者的選擇與競爭的結果？我知道其他一些銀行也談到第一資本正在重返市場。也許你可以只談談競爭動態。

Yes, sure. Yes, there was about a 90 basis point drop in originated yield going from 3Q to 4Q. And I'd say a chunk of that was benchmark rates and then a big chunk of that was actually mix. So you saw our S-Tier go from 43% to 49%. It's typical in the fourth quarter that we pick up more of the S-Tier. It's just a seasonal trend that we see each year. But obviously, we picked up a lot more than we anticipated. And I would characterize that as we just got more volume that we closed in that S-Tier than we anticipated. And we mentioned earlier that we've made changes around our pricing late in the quarter. And so we think we've got that managed and we expect our mix to kind of return to more like what we saw over the full year 2024.

是的，當然。是的，從第三季到第四季度，原始收益率下降了約 90 個基點。我想說其中很大一部分是基準利率，然後很大一部分實際上是混合利率。所以你看到我們的 S 級從 43% 上升到 49%。第四季我們通常會購買更多的 S 級產品。這只是我們每年都會看到的季節性趨勢。但顯然，我們收穫的東西比我們預期的要多得多。我認為，我們剛剛獲得的 S 級銷量比我們預期的要多。我們之前提到過，我們在本季末對定價進行了調整。因此，我們認為我們已經解決了這個問題，並且預計我們的組合將恢復到 2024 年全年的水平。

But that was -- that mix impact was certainly a factor. But importantly, if you look at how we price across the tiers, so comparing pricing on a more of a like-for-like basis. I'd say we're pretty pleased with our asset betas over the course of the quarter. And in fact, they're probably running favorable, quite frankly, to our original expectations.

但那是——混合影響肯定是一個因素。但重要的是，如果你看看我們在各個層級的定價方式，那麼就會在類似的基礎上比較定價。我想說，我們對本季的資產貝塔值非常滿意。事實上，坦白說，它們的運作情況可能符合我們最初的預期。

And you're not --

而你不是--

Sorry, Sanjay. I was just going to offer, I agree with everything obviously Russ said. And then just, from a competitive perspective, it was interesting dynamic between the third and the fourth quarters because in third quarter, we actually saw that our origination volume probably is a little softer than we have expected in the fourth quarter, we actually did quite well.

對不起，桑傑。我只是想提出，我同意拉斯所說的一切。然後，從競爭的角度來看，第三季度和第四季度之間的動態很有趣，因為在第三季度，我們實際上看到我們的原始數量可能比我們在第四季度的預期要軟一些，我們實際上做得相當好。

I'd actually say that we were pretty consistent in terms of our market approach during those two quarters and the market just, I think rewarded us nicely in the fourth quarter. One dynamic that you have to kind of think about is the most recent data on new car sales has been pretty strong and see if that dynamic work in our favor as well.

事實上，我想說的是，我們在這兩個季度的市場策略方面非常一致，而且我認為市場在第四季度給了我們很好的回報。您必須考慮的一個動態是新車銷售的最新數據非常強勁，看看這種動態是否也對我們有利。

Got it. And then just a follow up question to the previous line of questioning in terms of all these different moves that you made. I know Russ, you kind of reiterated the midteens ROTC target. But as far as like timing, does that change anything because like, obviously some of these NIM -- the NIM impacts from the EV credits are immediate and they come back over time. I'm just curious as we think about timing of achieving them, does that pushed it out in any way?

知道了。然後，就您所做的所有這些不同的動作，對前一行的問題提出一個後續問題。我知道拉斯，你重申了青少年後備軍官訓練隊的目標。但就時間而言，這是否會改變任何事情，因為顯然其中一些淨利差——電動車積分的淨利差影響是立竿見影的，並且會隨著時間的推移而恢復。我只是很好奇，當我們考慮實現這些目標的時機時，這是否會以任何方式推遲它？

No, nothing's changed from our perspective on timing. I think with a lot of these moves, we have increased confidence and we certainly see the benefits of focus in terms of our ability to to drive to the outcomes that we desire in terms of credit, in terms of expense levels, in terms of kind of how we think about capital. So all of those things are positive. I'd say it doesn't change our view on timing. .

不，從我們對時間安排的角度來看，一切都沒有改變。我認為，透過這些舉措，我們增強了信心，我們當然看到了專注的好處，即我們有能力在信貸、費用水平、種類等方面實現我們想要的結果。所以所有這些都是積極的。我想說這不會改變我們對時間的看法。。

All that being said, we haven't given the Street any precise timing. A lot of things outside of our control, including what happens with rates going forward, what happens in the macro. That could affect the timing positively or negatively. The destination for us is clear in terms of where we're going. And all the changes that we've done, I think, gives us better ability to manage different changes in the macro and ultimately give you hopefully more confidence in our ability to get to that mid-teens ROTC target in the medium term. But again, we haven't given a specific timing on that.

話雖如此，我們還沒有向華爾街提供任何準確的時間表。很多事情都超出了我們的控制範圍，包括未來利率的變化、宏觀經濟的變化。這可能會對時機產生正面或負面的影響。就我們要去的地方而言，我們的目的地很明確。我認為，我們所做的所有改變使我們能夠更好地管理宏觀上的不同變化，並最終讓您對我們在中期內實現青少年後備軍官訓練隊目標的能力更有信心。但同樣，我們還沒有給予具體的時間安排。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Robert Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

羅伯特·懷爾德哈克，自主研究。

Morning guys. I wanted to unpack some of your comments around unwinding curtailment actions. All else equal, I mean, how much of a benefit do you think that is to the originated yield? And then what's the primary driver behind that decision, given some of the volatility around credit in the past, it sounds like you're still being reasonably conservative with respect to the macro going forward, too. I'm wondering why not keep the pedal down on the S-Tier volume.

早安各位。我想解讀你們關於取消限電行動的一些評論。在其他條件相同的情況下，我的意思是，您認為這對原始產量有多少好處？然後，考慮到過去圍繞信貸的一些波動，該決定背後的主要驅動因素是什麼，聽起來您對未來的宏觀政策仍然相當保守。我想知道為什麼不踩下 S-Class 音量踏板。

Great. Thanks, Robert. Great question. And maybe just as we think about curtailment and also going back to Sanjay's question around originated yield, it is our expectation that as we see the impact of benchmark rates, the unwind curtailment will be an offset to that. And so as we think about originated yield on the forward, we're confident we can keep originating at yields that are in the high 9s, touching 10%. That's certainly our expectation for the near term. .

偉大的。謝謝，羅伯特。很好的問題。也許就像我們考慮縮減並回到桑傑關於原始收益率的問題一樣，我們預計，當我們看到基準利率的影響時，縮減縮減將抵消這一影響。因此，當我們考慮遠期的原始收益率時，我們有信心我們可以繼續以高 9 的收益率（接近 10%）作為原始收益率。這當然是我們對近期的期望。。

As we think about curtailment and the timing of that, as you can imagine, our process around credit is not a kind of one-and-done process. It is something that we're looking at continuously. And so we're constantly looking at our book and evaluating credit performance relative to our expectations, and we do that at a pretty granular level. Curtailment isn't something that I think you're -- we're going to kind of point to a specific point in time. It's going to come as we continue to see improved performance in our front books.

正如您可以想像的那樣，當我們考慮縮減及其時機時，我們圍繞信貸的流程並不是一種一勞永逸的流程。這是我們不斷關注的事情。因此，我們不斷地查看我們的帳簿並根據我們的預期評估信用表現，並且我們在相當細粒度的水平上進行評估。我認為削減並不是什麼——我們會指出一個特定的時間點。當我們繼續看到我們的前書表現有所提升時，它就會到來。

And it's going to be -- it's not going to come in kind of one flash, it's going to come in stages. as we make tweaks to our underwriting at the micro segment level. You'll see it as you see the distribution of S-Tier versus other tiers change over time. But I just want to point out, it's not a one-and-done process in terms of how we look at credit. It's continuous and it's a constant tweaking of our approach to underwriting, to our approach just around how we process applications whether we auto-approve or revert to manual underwriting. There are a lot of factors that kind of go into that. But again, you'll see that over time as you see S-Tier mix normalized from current levels.

它不會是一瞬間出現的，而是分階段出現的。當我們在微觀細分層面對承保進行調整時。當您看到 S 層與其他層的分佈隨時間變化時，您會看到這一點。但我只想指出，就我們如何看待信用而言，這不是一個一勞永逸的過程。它是持續的，並且是我們對承保方法的不斷調整，圍繞著我們如何處理申請的方法，無論我們是自動批准還是恢復到手動承保。有很多因素會影響這一點。但隨著時間的推移，當你看到 S 級混合從當前水平標準化時，你會再次看到這一點。

Okay. And then we know that the EV lease accounting change benefits the NIM. I was wondering if there was any way you could give some more context to that. Could you comment on what the 2025 NIM guide would have been had you not made the accounting change?

好的。然後我們知道電動車租賃會計變更有利於NIM。我想知道您是否可以提供更多背景資訊。您能否評論一下，如果您沒有進行會計變更，2025 年 NIM 指南將會是什麼樣子？

Yes. It's a challenging question because if I sat here -- when I sat here a year ago, obviously we didn't have a tremendous amount of visibility into how much of the EV volume or EV lease volume we would do, right? We entered into this agreement with an OEM in March, and that's been a significant driver of the amount of volume that we've done over the course of the year.

是的。這是一個具有挑戰性的問題，因為如果我一年前坐在這裡，顯然我們對我們將做多少電動車銷量或電動車租賃量有很大的了解，對嗎？我們在三月與 OEM 簽訂了這項協議，這是我們全年銷售的重要推動力。

And I would say I think that the benefit of the deferral method of lease accounting is it very much makes the accounting look more like the economics and look at how we look at it from a business perspective, which is that is to say, to make us indifferent between an EV lease versus an internal combustion engine lease, in terms of the economics and how it presents in our balance sheet. And so it's hard to answer that question because it's not how we look at the business. The way we look at the business is more consistent with this deferral method of accounting and more consistent with kind of the expression of it.

我想說的是，我認為租賃會計遞延法的好處在於，它使會計看起來更像經濟學，並且從商業角度來看我們如何看待它，也就是說，就經濟性及其在資產負債表中的呈現方式而言，我們對電動車租賃與內燃機租賃不感興趣。所以很難回答這個問題，因為這不是我們看待業務的方式。我們看待業務的方式更符合這種遞延會計方法，也更符合它的表達方式。

And quite frankly, from your perspective, it shouldn't matter. Those are just timing differences. And I think investors should appreciate the transparency and the clarity that the deferral method provides versus some of that lumpiness that we saw with the flow-through method.

坦白說，從你的角度來看，這應該不重要。這些只是時間上的差異。我認為投資人應該欣賞遞延法所提供的透明度和清晰度，而不是我們在流通法中看到的一些混亂。

Understanding our true economics when these mixed impacts can overwhelm our EPS on the tax line, I just don't think that was really kind of helping much of anyone.

當這些複雜的影響可能壓倒我們在稅收上的每股盈餘時，了解我們真正的經濟狀況，我只是認為這對任何人來說都沒有多大幫助。

Yeah,. okay, appreciate the color there. Thank you.

是的，。好吧，欣賞一下那裡的顏色。謝謝。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

摩西·奧倫布赫，TD·考恩。

Thanks. Wanted to dig in a little bit on some of the mitigation actions that you were talking about, Russ. Could you just give us a little more detail as to what you did that kind of allowed for those low flow through rates in the quarter and what that might mean as you go forward to those borrowers have a period of time where they've got to perform. Like how should we think about that? Thank you.

謝謝。拉斯，我想深入了解你所說的一些緩解措施。您能否給我們更多詳細信息，說明您採取了哪些措施來應對本季度的低流動率，以及當您繼續前進時，這些借款人將在一段時間內必須這樣做，這可能意味著什麼履行。例如我們該如何思考這個問題？謝謝。

on our loss mitigation strategies all year. And I think I can break it up into roughly three buckets. Number one would be repossession timing. We've been running a lot of analytics around when -- and our timing of repossession based on credit tier, based on borrower characteristics, based on a number of factors. And for the most part, we've been moving back the timing of repossession and we've been finding that given the collectors that extra time to work with a borrower tends to lead to better outcomes. We can keep people in their cars longer. We can collect more and we're getting to better outcomes.

關於我們全年的損失減輕策略。我想我可以把它分成大約三個部分。第一個是收回的時機。我們一直在圍繞何時以及基於信用等級、借款人特徵和許多因素的收回時間進行大量分析。在大多數情況下，我們一直在推遲收回的時間，我們發現，如果收藏家有更多時間與借款人合作，往往會帶來更好的結果。我們可以讓人們在車上待得更久。我們可以收集更多，並取得更好的結果。

The second is around our communication strategies, where we've been doing a lot of work around how and when we reach out to our borrowers who are delinquent. Probably the biggest change is just more use of, however, whatever resonates with them in terms of the medium of communication, whether it's a text message an e-mail or a phone call. And so we found we're just getting better at contacting and reaching them.

第二個是我們的溝通策略，我們在如何以及何時接觸拖欠借款人方面做了很多工作。然而，最大的變化可能只是更多地使用任何能引起他們共鳴的溝通媒介，無論是簡訊、電子郵件還是電話。所以我們發現我們在聯繫和接觸他們方面做得越來越好。

And then third is modifications and extensions, increasing the availability and removing some of the friction around those. Our extension and modification rates haven't changed 2024 versus 2023. But we've just gotten better at kind of how we use those and how we target those. It's important to note that we're obviously carefully looking at rates of [residicism] and stick rates on the population of loans that have been extended or modified. And we continue to be impressed by the borrower behavior. And based on kind of what we're seeing, we don't think we're in the can down the road. We think we're getting better outcomes in terms of helping our borrowers, keeping them in their cars and also improving the effectiveness of our collections.

第三是修改和擴展，提高可用性並消除圍繞這些的一些摩擦。與 2023 年相比，2024 年的延期和修改率沒有變化。但我們在如何使用這些技術以及如何瞄準這些技術方面已經做得更好了。值得注意的是，我們顯然正在仔細研究已延期或修改的貸款群體的[殘留率]和固定利率。我們仍然對借款人的行為印象深刻。根據我們所看到的情況，我們認為我們不會陷入困境。我們認為，在幫助借款人、讓他們留在車內以及提高催收效率方面，我們正在取得更好的成果。

Got it. Very helpful. As a follow-up, you talked about capital allocation towards growth in the business. The guidance that you gave for 2025 includes kind of flat earning assets. Just talk a little bit about your thoughts about, number one, like what is the NIM impact in '25 of the mix upgrade? And secondly, like, when would you be more comfortable allowing earning assets to grow within that capital plan?

知道了。非常有幫助。作為後續行動，您談到了針對業務成長的資本配置。您為 2025 年提供的指導包括某種固定收益資產。請談談您的想法，第一，例如混合升級對 25 年 NIM 的影響是什麼？其次，例如，您什麼時候會更願意允許獲利資產在該資本計畫內成長？

Yes. Behind the flat earning assets, there are a couple of moving pieces. As we've talked about before, we continue to see runoff of the lower-yielding mortgage loan and mortgage securities portfolios. And so what we're effectively doing is we're running off those assets at the same time that we're growing our retail auto loans and our corporate finance loans. And you can see also there's -- we're exercising a lot of discipline around our commercial auto portfolio as well.

是的。在收益持平的資產背後，有一些令人感動的事情。正如我們之前談到的，我們繼續看到低收益抵押貸款和抵押證券投資組合的流失。因此，我們實際上正在做的是，在增加零售汽車貸款和企業融資貸款的同時，我們正在耗盡這些資產。您也可以看到，我們也在商用汽車產品組合方面嚴格遵守紀律。

And so behind the flat earning assets, there's a mix shift that reflects kind of how we focus the business from here.and then obviously the sale of card on lending. You also have a -- both of those things also have an impact on earning assets. And so there's a lot going on behind that, but you can be assured that we're very much focused on growing in the places that are most accretive to returns, and that's in the retail auto lending, corporate finance, and I'd also point out in the insurance business -- not. That doesn't impact earning assets necessarily but it's an important area where we're growing the business, it's less capital-intensive and it's additive to our returns over time.

因此，在收入持平的資產背後，存在著一種混合轉變，反映了我們如何從這裡集中業務。這兩件事也會對獲利資產產生影響。因此，這背後發生了很多事情，但你可以放心，我們非常專注於最能增加回報的領域的成長，那就是零售汽車貸款、企業融資，我也會保險業指出——不是。這不一定會影響獲利資產，但它是我們發展業務的重要領域，它的資本密集度較低，並且隨著時間的推移會增加我們的回報。

Mark Devries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Thank you, Russ. I was hoping you could provide some of the same context around the NIM guidance in terms of what gets you to the high and low end of the range that you provided around the charge off guidance?

謝謝你，拉斯。我希望您能圍繞 NIM 指南提供一些相同的背景信息，以了解如何達到您圍繞沖銷指南提供的範圍的上限和下限？

Yes. Thanks, Mark. Look, I'd say for the NIM guide, obviously the path of rates is impactful in terms of in terms of our overall expectations around NIM as well as the competitive environment for our deposits business. And we've talked a lot about beta, and it's certainly our still our expectation that we'll get to a 70% beta. But as we've pointed out before, the timing of getting there is -- it takes time to get there. And so there's some variation based on market competition and that overall timing of deposit repricing.

是的。謝謝，馬克。看，我想說的是，對於 NIM 指南，顯然，利率路徑對於我們對 NIM 的整體預期以及我們存款業務的競爭環境是有影響的。我們已經討論了很多關於 Beta 的問題，我們仍然期望 Beta 率達到 70%。但正如我們之前指出的，實現這一目標的時機是——實現這一目標需要時間。因此，根據市場競爭和存款重新定價的總體時間，存在一些變化。

As we think about the rate environment, our range anticipates a range of different rate trajectories from a case where rates are flat relative to where they are today and today for a prolonged period of time at today's levels. We look at the forward curve and market expectations around where rates go from here. And we also look at cases where rates come down faster than the market currently anticipates. And I'd say our range kind of covers that range of scenarios.

當我們考慮利率環境時，我們的範圍預測了一系列不同的利率軌跡，即利率相對於今天的水平持平以及在很長一段時間內以今天的水平保持不變的情況。我們關注遠期曲線和市場對利率走勢的預期。我們也研究了利率下降速度快於市場目前預期的情況。我想說我們的範圍涵蓋了這些場景。

Look, in the event that we saw rates go up from here, that's certainly a scenario we look at. It's something that we can manage to in the medium term, but it would grow our guidance for the year off. But I'd say we look at all those things, and we also consider the timing of kind of when these rates come and how those could affect us through the year both in terms of that beta evolution as well as those near-term impacts that we've talked about in prior quarters.

看，如果我們看到利率從這裡上升，這肯定是我們所關注的情況。從中期來看，這是我們可以做到的，但這會增加我們今年的指導。但我想說，我們會考慮所有這些事情，我們也會考慮這些利率出現的時間，以及這些利率在這一年中如何影響我們，無論是在貝塔演化方面還是在短期影響方面。個季度已經討論過。

Maybe one last thing I just might add, our last question, is recognize that we gave you a lot of information and a lot of moving pieces within the quarter, If you kind of step back from a lot of the great detailed questions and just kind of think about where we are, I'd leave it a thought that you should be encouraged by our momentum. And the momentum is occurring. It's on the expense line, it's on the credit line and certainly on the margin line.

也許我要補充的最後一件事，我們的最後一個問題，是認識到我們在本季度內向您提供了很多信息和很多令人感動的內容，如果您從許多詳細的問題中退一步，只是友善考慮一下我們現在的處境，我想您應該為我們的勢頭感到鼓舞。這種勢頭正在發生。它在費用額度上，在信貸額度上，當然也在保證金額度上。

When it comes to capital, I think you've seen we've been pretty disciplined and prudent with respect to how we're creating capital. Expect our use of the capital will respect that same approach. And then we have this notion that we've introduced this quarter, which you can hear more about from us around the power of focus. And we think that when we focus our energies and efforts around the places where we have some demonstrated advantage, attractive returns and the necessary scale, you'd expect to see good things for us going forward.

說到資本，我想你已經看到我們在創造資本方面非常自律和謹慎。預計我們對資金的使用將遵循同樣的方法。然後，我們在本季度推出了這個概念，您可以從我們那裡聽到更多有關專注力量的信息。我們認為，當我們將精力和努力集中在我們擁有一定優勢、有吸引力的回報和必要規模的領域時，您會期望看到我們前進的美好事物。

Thanks, Michael. A little past the hour here so that's all the time that we have for today. If anyone has any additional questions, as always, feel free to reach out to investor relations. Thank you for joining us this morning. That concludes today's call.

謝謝，麥可。時間已經過去一點了，這就是我們今天的全部時間了。如果任何人有任何其他問題，一如既往，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。