Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ally Financial third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Ally Financial 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to hand the conference over to Sean Leary, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Sean Leary。請繼續。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning and welcome to Ally Financial's third-quarter 2024 earnings call. This morning, our CEO, Michael Rhodes; and our CFO, Russ Hutchinson, will review Ally's results before taking questions. The presentation, we'll reference can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, ally.com.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。早安，歡迎參加 Ally Financial 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們的執行長 Michael Rhodes；我們的財務長 Russ Hutchinson 將在回答問題之前審查 Ally 的結果。我們將參考的簡報可以在我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Forward looking statements and risk factor language governing today's call are on slide 2. GAAP and non-GAAP measures pertaining to our operating performance and capital results are on slide 3. As a reminder, non-GAAP or core metrics are supplemental to and not a substitute for US GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations can be found in the appendix.

前瞻性陳述和影響今天電話會議的風險因素語言位於投影片 2 上。與我們的經營績效和資本績效相關的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標請參閱幻燈片 3。提醒一下，非 GAAP 或核心指標是美國 GAAP 指標的補充，而不是替代方案。定義和調節可以在附錄中找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

然後，我會將電話轉給麥可。

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. I'll begin on slide 4. Before we get into the quarter, I want to share my perspective on a few key items. After almost six months in the role, I'm incredibly excited about the future of Ally, but recognize we face some earnings challenges over the next few quarters. Russ will get into the details of this in a few moments.

謝謝你，肖恩。大家早安，感謝您加入通話。我將從幻燈片 4 開始。在進入本季度之前，我想分享我對幾個關鍵項目的看法。在擔任該職位近六個月後，我對 Ally 的未來感到非常興奮，但也意識到我們在接下來的幾個季度將面臨一些盈利挑戰。Russ 稍後將詳細介紹這一點。

As for the future, I'm very encouraged by many of the underlying trends in our core businesses. We have outstanding franchises in dealer financial services, Ally Bank, and corporate finance. On the auto side, we continue to win business with compelling risk-adjusted margins, and growth in our insurance business continues to create strong fee revenue. At the bank, deposits are contributing more margin than at any point in the company's history, and corporate finance is on pace for its highest annual earnings ever.

至於未來，我對我們核心業務的許多潛在趨勢感到非常鼓舞。我們在經銷商金融服務、Ally Bank 和企業融資方面擁有出色的特許經營權。在汽車方面，我們繼續以令人矚目的風險調整利潤贏得業務，保險業務的成長持續創造強勁的費用收入。在該銀行，存款對利潤的貢獻比公司歷史上的任何時候都多，而公司財務也正朝著有史以來最高的年度收益邁進。

In terms of financial results, adjusted EPS of $0.95 includes significant tax credits within the period. This is related to EV lease volumes, which we'll cover shortly. That said, core pretax income of $188 million does not reflect what the company is capable of. We can do better.

就財務表現而言，調整後每股收益為 0.95 美元，其中包括該期間的大量稅收抵免。這與電動車租賃量有關，我們很快就會介紹。也就是說，1.88 億美元的核心稅前收入並不能反映該公司的能力。我們可以做得更好。

We continue to navigate a dynamic operating environment that includes volatility in interest rates and the consumer that has been strained by cumulative inflationary pressures. The unique environment has contributed to more volatility in our near-term outlook, particularly on credit costs and margins. Stepping back from quarterly fluctuations. Our medium-term outlook is predicated on a few simple drivers in which I have a lot of confidence. First, we have taken and continue to take action to reduce the loss content of originations. We believe these actions will result in lower losses over time.

我們持續應對充滿活力的經營環境，其中包括利率波動和因累積通膨壓力而承受壓力的消費者。獨特的環境導致我們的近期前景更加波動，特別是信貸成本和利潤率。擺脫季度波動。我們的中期前景基於幾個簡單的驅動因素，我對此充滿信心。首先，我們已經並將繼續採取行動減少原產地的損失。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些行動將減少損失。

Second, we have a liability-sensitive balance sheet heading into a falling rate environment. In addition, we're running off low-yielding assets that are a drag on margin today. So we continue to have momentum on both sides of the balance sheet. Now we can't predict the exact path of Fed funds or when market rates for deposits will move, but we expect they will move lower, which will accelerate margin expansion. In addition to margin and credit improvements, we continue to be relentlessly focused on capital and expense discipline.

其次，我們的資產負債表對負債敏感，正面臨利率下降的環境。此外，我們正在擺脫低收益資產，這些資產今天拖累了利潤率。因此，我們在資產負債表兩側繼續保持勢頭。現在我們無法預測聯邦基金的確切路徑或存款市場利率何時變化，但我們預計它們會下降，這將加速利潤率擴張。除了提高利潤和信用之外，我們還繼續不懈地關注資本和費用紀律。

I'm so proud of the way our team is driving controllable expenses down this year, following many years of increases. And we've been successful at taking actions to move CET1 higher to ensure we support our customers and build excess capital. Rest assured, our focus on expenses and capital management will remain a top priority. We're looking very closely at resource allocation, and we'll continue to prioritize what's in the best interest of our shareholders.

我對我們的團隊在經歷了多年的成長之後今年降低可控費用的方式感到非常自豪。我們已成功採取行動提高 CET1，以確保我們支持客戶並累積過剩資本。請放心，我們對支出和資本管理的關注仍將是重中之重。我們正在密切關注資源分配，我們將繼續優先考慮股東的最佳利益。

So let's put it all together. Ally has a strong franchise positioned for margin expansion and revenue growth, combined with improving loss trends and tightly managed expenses and capital. I expect that this will translate into a mid-teens return over time.

讓我們把它們放在一起。Ally 擁有強大的特許經營權，可實現利潤擴張和收入成長，同時虧損趨勢有所改善，費用和資本管理嚴格。我預計隨著時間的推移，這將轉化為十幾歲左右的回報。

Let's turn to slide 5 and talk about our market-leading franchises. In auto, we decisioned 3.6 million consumer applications. This gives us the ability to be selective in the loans we book in terms of pricing and credit. With respect to pricing, we generated $9.4 billion of consumer volume. And our auto origination yield of 10.5% was consistent with prior quarter despite a meaningful reduction in swap rates over the past several months.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 5，討論我們市場領先的特許經營權。在汽車領域，我們決定了 360 萬個消費者應用程式。這使我們能夠在定價和信貸方面選擇性地預訂貸款。在定價方面，我們創造了 94 億美元的消費量。儘管過去幾個月掉期利率大幅下降，但我們的汽車發行收益率為 10.5%，與上一季持平。

In terms of credit, we originated more than 40% of volume in our highest credit tier again this quarter. Our ability to sustain strong margins and consistent credit quality in a competitive market demonstrates the strength of this franchise. Insurance written premiums of $384 million represents a quarterly record since our IPO and highlight the opportunities we have in F&I and P&C products.

在信貸方面，本季我們再次在最高信貸等級發放了超過 40% 的交易量。我們在競爭激烈的市場中維持強勁利潤和穩定信用品質的能力證明了該特許經營權的實力。保險承保保費達到 3.84 億美元，創下了我們 IPO 以來的季度記錄，突顯了我們在 F&I 和 P&C 產品方面的機會。

Turning to Ally Bank. Retail deposits of $141 billion are 92% FDIC insured, and we are proud to serve 3.3 million customers. We've been very intentional about creating a comprehensive value proposition that goes well beyond our consistently competitive rates. We offer best-in-class customer service and convenient digital experiences, and over time, have added additional features and products. And we've seen consistently high levels of satisfaction, engagement, and retention.

轉向盟友銀行。1,410 億美元的零售存款中有 92% 受到 FDIC 的保險，我們很自豪能夠為 330 萬客戶提供服務。我們一直非常有意識地創造一個全面的價值主張，遠遠超出我們一貫具有競爭力的價格。我們提供一流的客戶服務和便利的數位體驗，隨著時間的推移，我們增加了額外的功能和產品。我們看到了持續高水準的滿意度、參與度和保留率。

The combination of a strong national brand and a comprehensive value proposition allows us to leverage our deposit franchise to drive NIM expansion from here. Given our funding needs, retail deposits declined $600 million within the quarter, which is in line with our expectations, as loan balances also declined on a linked quarter basis. Deposit customer growth remained strong, up 57,000 within the quarter. New accounts continue to show high levels of engagement, which should result in less price-sensitive balances in the portfolio.

強大的全國品牌和全面的價值主張相結合，使我們能夠利用我們的存款特許經營權來推動 NIM 的擴張。考慮到我們的資金需求，本季零售存款減少了 6 億美元，這符合我們的預期，因為貸款餘額也較上季下降。存款客戶成長依然強勁，本季增加了 57,000 名。新帳戶繼續表現出高水準的參與度，這應該會導致投資組合中對價格敏感的餘額減少。

Corporate finance assets increased modestly quarter-over-quarter, and the portfolio continues to generate strong returns and solid credit performance. Within credit card, I'm pleased with how the team proactively managed risk, resulting in a decline in losses from the prior quarter. The business has an attractive cardholder base, a great digital experience and is producing a double-digit risk-adjusted margin even in this environment. Underlying business trends are strong, and our customer-centric approach positions us to continue winning in the marketplace. And with that, I'll turn it over to Russ.

企業金融資產環比小幅成長，投資組合繼續產生強勁的回報和穩健的信用表現。在信用卡領域，我對團隊主動管理風險的方式感到滿意，導致損失比上一季下降。該業務擁有有吸引力的持卡人基礎、出色的數位體驗，即使在這種環境下，也能產生兩位數的風險調整利潤。潛在的業務趨勢強勁，我們以客戶為中心的方法使我們能夠繼續在市場上獲勝。有了這個，我會把它交給拉斯。

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 6. In the third quarter, net financing revenue, excluding OID of $1.5 billion, was lower year-over-year, driven by lower average earning assets and higher cost of funds. The decline in benchmark rates as the Fed continues to move rates lower will be a tailwind over the medium term given the liability-sensitive nature of our balance sheet.

謝謝，麥可。大家早安。我將從幻燈片 6 開始。第三季度，由於平均獲利資產下降和資金成本上升，淨融資收入（不包括OID）較去年同期下降15億美元。鑑於我們資產負債表的負債敏感性，隨著聯準會繼續降低利率，基準利率下降將在中期內成為順風車。

But as we've covered previously, we are modestly asset sensitive in the near term as floating rate assets and hedges will contractually reprice faster than deposits. We expect to achieve our medium-term NIM target of 4%, but the rapid change in Fed funds implied by the forward curve will create some volatility in the next few quarters if those cuts materialize. I'll discuss margin dynamics in more detail shortly.

但正如我們之前所討論的，我們在短期內對資產較為敏感，因為浮動利率資產和對沖工具按照合約重新定價的速度將快於存款。我們預計將實現 4% 的中期淨利差目標，但如果這些削減成為現實，遠期曲線所暗示的聯邦基金的快速變化將在未來幾季造成一定的波動。我將很快更詳細地討論利潤動態。

Adjusted other revenue of $556 million is up 13% from the prior year as we continue to benefit from the momentum within insurance and other revenue streams. Provision expense of $645 million increased from the prior year, driven by higher net charge-offs and a 15 basis point reserve build in retail auto to reflect our outlook on net charge-offs going forward, including potential losses from Hurricane Helene.

調整後其他收入為 5.56 億美元，比上年增長 13%，因為我們繼續受益於保險和其他收入流的成長勢頭。撥備支出較前一年增加 6.45 億美元，原因是淨沖銷增加以及零售汽車儲備金增加 15 個基點，以反映我們對未來淨沖銷的展望，包括颶風海倫造成的潛在損失。

As I previewed at a recent conference, net charge-offs continue to be elevated in the quarter, driven by pressure in late-stage delinquent accounts. I'll cover retail auto credit and vintage dynamics in more detail later. Adjusted net interest expense of $1.2 billion reflects our continued focus on tightly managing expenses, even while continuing to make accretive investments to support the growth of our insurance business and necessary investments in areas such as cybersecurity.

正如我在最近的一次會議上所預見的那樣，在後期拖欠帳戶壓力的推動下，本季的淨沖銷繼續上升。稍後我將更詳細地介紹零售汽車信貸和老式動態。調整後的淨利息支出為 12 億美元，反映出我們繼續注重嚴格管理支出，同時繼續進行增值投資以支持我們保險業務的成長以及在網路安全等領域的必要投資。

Continued momentum in EV lease originations drove $179 million in EV tax credits and a negative tax rate within the quarter. We will also provide more on EV originations later. GAAP and adjusted EPS for the quarter were $1.06 and $0.95, respectively.

電動汽車租賃發起的持續勢頭推動本季電動車稅收抵免和負稅率達到 1.79 億美元。稍後我們還將提供有關電動車起源的更多資訊。該季度的 GAAP 和調整後每股收益分別為 1.06 美元和 0.95 美元。

Moving to slide 7. Net interest margin, excluding OID of 3.25% decreased 5 basis points from the prior quarter. Earning asset yields decreased 6 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by lower lease revenue. Retail auto portfolio yield, excluding the impact from hedges, increased 13 basis points this quarter. The linked quarter expansion slowed relative to prior periods as late-stage delinquency buckets drove a higher proportion of loans moving to nonaccrual status.

轉到投影片 7。扣除 OID 後的淨利差為 3.25%，較上季下降 5 個基點。由於租賃收入下降，獲利資產收益率季減 6 個基點。排除對沖影響，零售汽車投資組合收益率本季成長了 13 個基點。由於後期拖欠行為導致更高比例的貸款轉為非應計狀態，因此相關季度擴張相對於前期有所放緩。

On liabilities, cost of funds increased 3 basis points quarter over quarter. Retail deposit yields were flat quarter-over-quarter, while broker deposits drove a modest increase in total deposit costs. Notwithstanding near-term choppiness, the pricing dynamics on both sides of our balance sheet support NIM expansion to our 4% medium-term target.

負債方面，資金成本較上季上升 3 個基點。零售存款收益率環比持平，而經紀存款推動總存款成本小幅上升。儘管近期出現波動，但我們資產負債表雙方的定價動態支持淨利差擴大到我們 4% 的中期目標。

Let's discuss net interest margin in more detail on slide 8. Over the medium term, we're well positioned for NIM expansion as the deposit portfolio, including consumer CDs, reprices lower. In addition to the tailwinds from our liability-sensitive balance sheet, the favorable asset mix shift of the balance sheet will support margin expansion throughout 2025. So in the medium term, we're confident NIM will move higher, but want to provide context on the timing dynamics that will factor into NIM progression.

讓我們在投影片 8 上更詳細地討論淨利差。從中期來看，隨著包括消費者 CD 在內的存款組合重新定價較低，我們已經做好了淨利差擴張的準備。除了我們對負債敏感的資產負債表帶來的利多之外，資產負債表的有利資產組合變化也將支持 2025 年利潤率的擴張。因此，從中期來看，我們有信心淨利差將走高，但希望提供影響淨利差進展的時間動態背景。

The graphic on the bottom of the page illustrates NIM drivers as we move through the Fed's easing cycle. This is not a specific forecast. Rather, it's a simple way to think about the dynamics impacting our NIM if the Fed moves rates materially lower over the next few quarters. As you'd expect, changes in the pace and magnitude of Fed cuts will impact each of these variables, particularly in the shorter term.

頁面底部的圖表說明了當我們經歷聯準會寬鬆週期時的淨利差驅動因素。這不是具體的預測。相反，這是一種簡單的方法來思考如果聯準會在未來幾季大幅降低利率，會對我們的淨利差產生怎樣的影響。正如您所預料的那樣，聯準會降息速度和幅度的變化將影響這些變量，尤其是在短期內。

On deposits, we continue to expect a through-the-cycle beta of around 70%, which is consistent with our experience during the tightening cycle and prior easing cycles, but we expect that downward beta to be lower to start and then increase over time. Again, that's consistent with what we saw in 2022 and 2023 on the way up. We have begun to move deposits down, including 20 basis points last month and 35 basis points in total, including the actions we took earlier this year.

就存款而言，我們仍然預計整個週期的貝塔值為70% 左右，這與我們在緊縮週期和之前的寬鬆週期中的經驗一致，但我們預計貝塔係數在開始時會較低，然後隨著時間的推移而增加。同樣，這與我們在 2022 年和 2023 年看到的成長一致。我們已經開始下調存款，上個月下調了20個基點，包括今年早些時候採取的行動，總共下調了35個基點。

In retail auto, our origination yields remain higher than the back book, and we expect the portfolio yield excluding hedging to move higher over the next few quarters. And the continued shift from mortgage loans and securities into retail auto and corporate finance loans will be a consistent tailwind going forward.

在零售汽車方面，我們的原始收益率仍然高於帳面收益率，我們預計不包括對沖的投資組合收益率在未來幾季將走高。從抵押貸款和證券向零售汽車和企業融資貸款的持續轉變將是未來持續的推動力。

Across those three primary drivers, we have significant margin tailwinds. Floating rate assets in our hedge position are temporary offsets. Floating rate assets are mainly commercial loans in both auto and corporate finance. We also include cash balances in this bucket. Those assets will reprice quickly, which represents an immediate headwind that grows over time as the Fed is expected to reduce rates further.

在這三個主要驅動因素中，我們擁有顯著的利潤優勢。我們對沖頭寸中的浮動利率資產是臨時抵銷。浮動利率資產主要是汽車金融和企業金融領域的商業貸款。我們也將現金餘額包含在此桶中。這些資產將迅速重新定價，隨著聯準會預計將進一步降息，這意味著隨著時間的推移，這種阻力會越來越大。

Hedges have been an effective mechanism to reduce exposure to rising rates. Hedging activity has contributed more than $1 billion in NII since the tightening cycle and continues to generate significant positive carry. That benefit has come down over time, which will continue given the decline in benchmark rates and natural maturity of the swaps.

避險一直是減少利率上升風險的有效機制。自緊縮週期以來，對沖活動已為 NII 貢獻了超過 10 億美元，並繼續產生顯著的正利差。這種好處隨著時間的推移而下降，鑑於基準利率的下降和互換的自然到期日，這種好處將持續下去。

So in the near term, we have contractual repricing of floating rate exposures. The expected move in deposit rates will more than offset that headwind over time, but the next few quarters may see margins contract modestly. The direction of NIM movement over the next few quarters is heavily dependent on competitive dynamics and deposits. NIM in the near term may be choppy, but over a variety of rate paths, we expect NIM expansion in the medium term to reflect favorable dynamics on both sides of our balance sheet.

因此，在短期內，我們對浮動利率風險敞口進行合約重新定價。隨著時間的推移，存款利率的預期變動將足以抵消這種阻力，但未來幾季利潤率可能會小幅收縮。未來幾季淨利差的變動方向在很大程度上取決於競爭動態和存款。短期內的淨利差可能會波動，但在各種利率路徑上，我們預期中期的淨利差擴張將反映出我們資產負債表雙方的有利動態。

Turning to page 9. CET1 of 9.8% was up quarter over quarter. We operate with a significant buffer to required CET1, with over $4 billion of excess capital above our SCB minimum 7.1% that went into effect October 1. Within the quarter, we saw over $600 million of after-tax AOCI accretion given the move lower in interest rates. We expect natural AOCI accretion of $400 million per year based on the forward curve. Excluding the impacts of AOCI, adjusted tangible book value per share is $48, up more than 2 times from 2014.

翻到第9頁。CET1 環比上升 9.8%。我們對所需的 CET1 有很大的緩衝，超額資本超過 40 億美元，高於 10 月 1 日生效的 SCB 最低要求 7.1%。在本季內，由於利率下降，我們看到稅後 AOCI 增加了超過 6 億美元。根據遠期曲線，我們預期 AOCI 每年自然增加 4 億美元。剔除 AOCI 的影響，調整後每股有形帳面價值為 48 美元，比 2014 年成長逾 2 倍。

We are confident in our ability to continue driving shareholder value and tangible book value per share growth over the next several years. We recently announced our quarterly dividend of $0.30 for the fourth quarter, which remains consistent with the prior quarter. In the first quarter of 2025, we expect a 19 basis point impact to CET1 from the final phasing of CECL, and we'll talk shortly about a potential change in accounting treatment on EV leases, which would temporarily reduce CET1.

我們對未來幾年持續推動股東價值和每股有形帳面價值成長的能力充滿信心。我們最近宣布第四季度的季度股息為 0.30 美元，與上一季保持一致。到 2025 年第一季度，我們預計 CECL 最終階段將對 CET1 產生 19 個基點的影響，我們很快就會討論電動汽車租賃會計處理的潛在變化，這將暫時降低 CET1。

Let's turn to slide 10 to review asset quality trends. The consolidated net charge-off rate of 150 basis points was up 24 basis points quarter over quarter. Consistent with the first and second quarters of 2024, our commercial portfolio has continued to perform well with no charge-off activity in corporate finance or commercial auto during the quarter. The credit card portfolio is performing in line with expectations, and both delinquencies and net charge-offs improved in the quarter. Credit card NCOs of 9.9% were down from 12.6% in the prior quarter.

讓我們轉向投影片 10 來回顧資產品質趨勢。綜合淨沖銷率為 150 個基點，較上季上升 24 個基點。與 2024 年第一季和第二季一致，我們的商業投資組合繼續表現良好，本季企業融資或商用汽車沒有沖銷活動。信用卡組合的表現符合預期，本季拖欠率和淨沖銷均有所改善。信用卡 NCO 為 9.9%，低於上一季的 12.6%。

Retail auto net charge-offs of 224 basis points were up 43 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by seasonal patterns and elevated delinquencies. In the bottom right, 30-plus day delinquencies increased 18 basis points quarter-over-quarter and were up 66 basis points year-over-year, slightly higher than our expectations a few months ago. I'll cover auto credit trends in more detail in a couple of slides.

受季節性模式和拖欠率上升的推動，零售汽車淨沖銷額為 224 個基點，較上季上升 43 個基點。在右下角，超過 30 天的拖欠率環比增加 18 個基點，比去年同期增加 66 個基點，略高於我們幾個月前的預期。我將在幾張投影片中更詳細地介紹汽車信貸趨勢。

Retail auto and consolidated coverage rates were up 15 and 12 basis points, respectively. The increase in coverage rates reflects our updated outlook for retail auto credit loss trends, including potential impacts from Hurricane Helene. The retail auto coverage rate will remain elevated until we see loss performance normalize.

零售汽車和綜合覆蓋率分別上升 15 和 12 個基點。覆蓋率的上升反映了我們對零售汽車信貸損失趨勢的最新展望，包括颶風海倫的潛在影響。零售汽車保險覆蓋率將保持在較高水平，直到我們看到虧損表現正常化。

Let's turn to page 12 to discuss retail auto underwriting actions. The curtailment and pricing actions we've taken over the past two years have meaningfully reduced the risk content of originations and protected risk-adjusted returns. We opportunistically tightened underwriting and took pricing actions in the second quarter of 2023 that resulted in an increase to 40% in S-Tier originations, our highest credit quality tier. While the move up tier in credit in 2Q 2023 was a meaningful pivot, we're always evaluating strategies to refine the credit buy box. We continue to identify segments of underperformance and have taken further action, which includes curtailment of originations and higher pricing.

讓我們翻到第 12 頁討論零售汽車核保行動。我們在過去兩年中採取的削減和定價行動有意義地降低了起源的風險內容並保護了風險調整後的回報。我們趁機收緊了承保，並在 2023 年第二季度採取了定價行動，導致 S 級信貸發放量增加至 40%，這是我們最高的信用品質等級。雖然 2023 年第二季的信貸等級提升是一個有意義的轉捩點，但我們始終在評估完善信貸黃金購物車的策略。我們繼續識別表現不佳的部分，並採取進一步行動，其中包括減少來源和提高定價。

More recent examples of additional curtailment include tightening credit policy for contracts with higher monthly payments or PTI. We've increased the frequency with which we require income and employment verification and are more selective around trade equity. We've also lowered approvals for applicants in higher debt-to-income segments and those that have limited credit history. These are just a few simple examples, but the broader point is while our origination mix may look very consistent over the past 12-plus months, we continue to take very granular actions to optimize risk-adjusted returns.

最近額外削減的例子包括收緊每月付款或 PTI 較高的合約的信貸政策。我們增加了要求收入和就業核實的頻率，並且在貿易公平方面更具選擇性。我們也降低了債務收入比較高部分和信用記錄有限的申請人的批准。這些只是幾個簡單的例子，但更廣泛的一點是，雖然我們的創始組合在過去 12 個多月裡看起來非常一致，但我們繼續採取非常精細的行動來優化風險調整後的回報。

The effectiveness of these actions is reflected in the loan characteristics on the bottom left. Our move up in credit was most pronounced in 2023, with our S-Tier mix increasing from around 25% in prior years to more than 40%. And within the past year, we've seen an increase in FICO. Also, you can see our PTI took a step down from 2022 to 2023, and again, over the last year. We continue to be more selective in what we're putting on the balance sheet. The continued tightening gives us confidence our loss rate will decline over time.

這些行動的有效性反映在左下角的貸款特徵中。我們的信貸成長在 2023 年最為明顯，我們的 S 級組合從前幾年的 25% 左右增加到 40% 以上。在過去的一年裡，我們看到 FICO 有所增加。此外，您還可以看到我們的 PTI 從 2022 年到 2023 年有所下降，並且在去年再次下降。我們繼續對資產負債表上的內容更加挑剔。持續的緊縮讓我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的損失率將會下降。

On slide 13, let's discuss retail auto vintage credit trends. Retail auto origination trends are on the top half of the page. Our origination trends reflect a deliberate strategy to be increasingly selective in our underwriting with a focus on prioritizing risk-adjusted returns over origination volume. We have moved up significantly in terms of borrower credit quality since early 2023, which will be a tailwind to delinquency and frequency over time. We expect less severity pressure as we move further away from peak collateral values in early 2022.

在投影片 13 上，我們討論零售汽車老式信貸趨勢。零售汽車的起源趨勢位於頁面的上半部。我們的發起趨勢反映了一種深思熟慮的策略，即在我們的承保中越來越有選擇性，重點是優先考慮風險調整後的回報而不是發起數量。自 2023 年初以來，我們的借款人信用品質已顯著提高，隨著時間的推移，這將成為拖欠率和頻率的有利因素。隨著我們距離 2022 年初抵押品價值高峰越來越遠，我們預計嚴重壓力會較小。

While losses remain elevated, we are seeing benefits from our underwriting changes. Our 2023 vintage continues to outperform 2022 in the aggregate, despite a more challenging macro environment after equivalent months on book.

儘管損失仍然很高，但我們看到了承保變化帶來的好處。儘管與 2022 年同期相比，宏觀環境更具挑戰性，但我們 2023 年年份的整體表現仍然優於 2022 年。

While not shown on the page, the quarterly vintage comparisons from those years show even more separation. And the very early signs on the 2024 vintage are also encouraging. As we move past peak losses on the 2022 vintage, we expect the rate of change in delinquency and charge-offs to continue to move lower and ultimately decline on a year-over-year basis.

雖然頁面上沒有顯示，但這些年份的季度年份比較顯示出更多的分離。2024 年份酒的早期跡像也令人鼓舞。隨著我們度過 2022 年年份的損失峰值，我們預計拖欠和沖銷的變化率將繼續下降，並最終同比下降。

The exact timing of improvement in credit performance is difficult to forecast in this environment, particularly as we are managing a larger pool of late-stage delinquent accounts. But our continuous refinement of the buy box and the results of our detailed vintage analysis give us confidence in lower losses over time.

在這種環境下，很難預測信貸績效改善的確切時間，特別是當我們管理更大的後期拖欠帳戶池時。但我們對黃金購物車的不斷改進和詳細年份分析的結果讓我們對隨著時間的推移降低損失充滿信心。

Moving to slide 14 to review auto segment highlights. Pretax income of $175 million was down from the prior year, driven by higher funding costs and provision expense. Provision reflected typical seasonality, elevated net charge-offs and a 15 basis point increase in the coverage rate. On the bottom left, we've highlighted the steady progression of retail auto portfolio yields. Excluding the impact from hedges, yields were up 83 basis points year over year.

前往投影片 14 以查看自動分段亮點。由於融資成本和撥備費用增加，稅前收入較前一年下降 1.75 億美元。撥備反映了典型的季節性、淨沖銷增加以及覆蓋率增加 15 個基點。在左下角，我們強調了零售汽車投資組合收益率的穩定成長。剔除對沖的影響，殖利率較去年同期上漲83個基點。

Strong application volume drove high credit quality originations, including 43% in our S-Tier while maintaining a yield above 10.5%, which is consistent with the prior quarter. We continue to prioritize risk-adjusted spread over retail loan origination volume, and our originated yield has been resilient. Even as two- and three-year swap rates have moved over 100 basis points lower from the peak earlier this year, while we have prioritized credit quality through further curtailment actions. We expect originated yields to move lower in the fourth quarter but remain above the back book, leading to continued expansion in portfolio yield ex-hedges.

強勁的申請量推動了高信貸品質的發放，其中 S 級信貸品質高達 43%，同時收益率保持在 10.5% 以上，與上一季一致。我們繼續優先考慮風險調整利差而不是零售貸款發放量，而且我們的發放收益率一直具有彈性。儘管兩年期和三年期掉期利率已較今年稍早的峰值下降了 100 個基點以上，但我們仍透過進一步的縮減措施優先考慮信貸品質。我們預計第四季原始收益率將走低，但仍高於帳面收益，從而導致對沖投資組合收益率持續擴張。

Lease trends are in the bottom right. Gains of $24 million in the third quarter reflect lower lease termination volume and softer lease gains per vehicle. We expect lease termination volume to decrease further in 4Q and 2025, reflective of the industry decline in origination volume three years ago for each respective period.

租賃趨勢位於右下角。第三季 2,400 萬美元的收益反映了租賃終止量的減少和每輛車的租賃收益的疲軟。我們預計第四季度和 2025 年租賃終止量將進一步減少，這反映了三年前各時期行業起始量的下降。

Turning to slide 15. We've provided an update on EV lease trends. EV originations in the third quarter of $1.1 billion represented 12% of our total 3Q origination volume. Consistent with the prior quarter, increased lease volume is driven by the new OEM agreement we entered into in March and includes residual guarantees that provide significant protection against the decline in values. Higher EV lease origination volume generated significant tax credits within the quarter.

轉到投影片 15。我們提供了電動汽車租賃趨勢的最新資訊。第三季電動車的發行量為 11 億美元，占我們第三季總發行量的 12%。與上一季一致，租賃量的增加是由我們 3 月簽訂的新 OEM 協議推動的，其中包括為防止價值下跌提供重要保護的剩餘擔保。較高的電動車租賃發起量在本季度產生了大量稅收抵免。

Under our current accounting treatment, these credits flow through the income statement at the time of origination. In addition, we also made an adjustment to align our year-to-date tax credit recognition with year-to-date earnings as a percentage of full year expectation.

根據我們目前的會計處理，這些貸項在產生時流經損益表。此外，我們還進行了調整，以使年初至今的稅收抵免確認與年初至今的收益佔全​​年預期的百分比保持一致。

The combined impact from EV volume and the quarterly true-up was $179 million within the quarter. In the prior year quarter, EV tax credits impacted our effective tax rate by single-digit percentage points. In the third quarter, the impact of EV tax credits was larger, resulting in a negative tax rate. With the ongoing momentum in EV lease volume and to mitigate future tax rate volatility, we are evaluating a change in the election of accounting methods from flow-through method accounting to deferral method accounting. A switch to deferral method of accounting would result in the EV tax credit benefit being realized in net interest margin over the life of the lease instead of tax expense on day one under the existing flow-through method.

本季電動車銷售和季度調整的綜合影響為 1.79 億美元。去年同期，電動車稅收抵免對我們的有效稅率產生了個位數百分點的影響。第三季度，電動車稅收抵免影響較大，出現負稅率。隨著電動車租賃量的持續增長，並為了減輕未來稅率的波動，我們正在評估會計方法選擇的變化，從流通法會計改為遞延法會計。轉向遞延會計方法將導致企業價值稅收抵免收益在整個租賃期內以淨息差形式實現，而不是按照現有流通法在第一天的稅收費用。

Deferral method of accounting for EV lease tax credits would align the recognition of the credit with the economics of a traditional internal combustion engine or ICE lease contract. A potential change in accounting methods would be made retroactively and reduce retained earnings by approximately $310 million and CET1 by approximately 20 basis points as of Q3. Importantly, the impact to Ally would be offset over the life of the lease with higher reported NIM. In the third quarter, NIM would have been 6 basis points higher under the deferral method of accounting. We expect to decide on the accounting methodology at some point in the fourth quarter, and it remains subject to approval from our external auditors.

電動汽車租賃稅收抵免的遞延會計方法將使抵免的確認與傳統內燃機或內燃機租賃合約的經濟性保持一致。會計方法可能會發生變化，截至第三季度，留存收益將減少約 3.1 億美元，CET1 將減少約 20 個基點。重要的是，在租賃期內，報告的淨息差較高，對 Ally 的影響將被抵消。在遞延會計法下，第三季淨利差將高出 6 個基點。我們預計將在第四季度的某個時候決定會計方法，但仍需獲得外部審計師的批准。

Turning to insurance on slide 16. Core pretax income was up $15 million year-over-year, driven by higher earned premiums and investment income. Total written premiums of $384 million are a quarterly record for Ally since the IPO and reflective of the momentum we see across this business. P&C written premiums of $115 million are also a record, driven by new OEM relationships and higher inventory exposure. The success we've had growing our insurance business is driving higher losses, which were up $28 million year over year.

轉向幻燈片 16 上的保險。由於保費和投資收入增加，核心稅前收入年增 1,500 萬美元。承保保費總額 3.84 億美元是 Ally 自 IPO 以來的季度記錄，反映了我們在該業務中看到的勢頭。在新的 OEM 關係和更高的庫存敞口的推動下，財產險承保保費也創下了 1.15 億美元的紀錄。我們保險業務的成功發展導致了更高的損失，比去年同期增加了 2800 萬美元。

These losses are more than offset by revenue. Hurricane Helene occurred during the final week of the quarter, and we expect the storm to be among our largest historical hurricane events in terms of gross losses.

這些損失足以被收入抵銷。颶風海倫發生在本季度的最後一周，我們預計這場風暴將成為我們歷史上損失最大的颶風事件之一。

Our Q3 results reflect our current estimate of insurance losses from Helene. Our reinsurance program is expected to cover most of the loss. As we look ahead, insurance is a key driver of fee revenue expansion, and we remain focused on generating strong premium volume by leveraging relationships in auto finance.

我們第三季的結果反映了我們目前對海倫保險損失的估計。我們的再保險計劃預計將彌補大部分損失。展望未來，保險是費用收入擴張的關鍵驅動力，我們仍然專注於透過利用汽車金融領域的關係來產生強勁的保費收入。

Corporate finance results are on slide 17. Core pretax income of $94 million was another strong quarter for corporate finance and highlights the steady return profile of the business. End-of-period HFI loans of $10.3 billion are up $600 million quarter over quarter. Our portfolio remains well diversified, virtually all first lien, and we remain well positioned from a credit standpoint.

公司財務結果請見投影片 17。9,400 萬美元的核心稅前收入是企業融資的另一個強勁季度，凸顯了該業務穩定的回報狀況。期末 HFI 貸款為 103 億美元，較上季增加 6 億美元。我們的投資組合仍然多元化，幾乎都是第一留置權，從信用的角度來看，我們仍然處於有利地位。

On the bottom of the page, we highlight the accretive return profile of the corporate finance business. While balances can fluctuate depending on market dynamics and competition, we'll look to prudently deploy capital into corporate finance to continue serving customers and generating strong returns.

在頁面底部，我們重點介紹了企業融資業務的增值回報情況。雖然餘額可能會根據市場動態和競爭而波動，但我們將謹慎地將資本配置到企業融資中，以繼續為客戶提供服務並產生豐厚的回報。

Turning to mortgage on slide 18. Mortgage recorded pretax income of $27 million and $256 million of DTC originations. Consistent with prior quarters, held for investment assets continue to decrease as virtually all DTC originations are held for sale. Our focus remains on providing a great customer digital experience while simultaneously demonstrating efficiency by adapting to different operating environments.

轉向幻燈片 18 上的抵押貸款。抵押貸款稅前收入為 2,700 萬美元，DTC 收入為 2.56 億美元。與前幾季一致，持有投資資產繼續減少，因為幾乎所有 DTC 來源都是為了出售而持有。我們的重點仍然是提供出色的客戶數位體驗，同時透過適應不同的營運環境來展示效率。

I'll provide an update on our 2024 outlook on slide 19. We are updating our full year 2024 NIM outlook to approximately 3.2%. The update assumes another 50 basis point decrease in Fed funds by year-end and the assumption that deposit betas will be slow to start. Given the near-term asset sensitivity, we discussed earlier, this puts temporary pressure on margin exiting the year. Momentum in insurance, earned premiums through new OEM relationships and continued success in diversified auto channels such as SmartAuction and Passthrough position us to grow adjusted other revenue by 12% year over year. That's consistent with our update in July and well above the 5% to 10% we guided to in January.

我將在幻燈片 19 上提供 2024 年展望的最新資訊。我們將 2024 年全年淨利差預期更新至約 3.2%。此次更新假設聯邦基金在年底前將再減少 50 個基點，並假設存款貝塔啟動緩慢。考慮到我們之前討論過的近期資產敏感性，這給今年的利潤率帶來了暫時的壓力。保險業務的發展勢頭、透過新的 OEM 關係賺取的保費以及 SmartAuction 和 Passthrough 等多元化汽車通路的持續成功，使我們調整後的其他收入同比增長 12%。這與我們 7 月的更新一致，遠高於我們 1 月指導的 5% 到 10%。

We see retail auto NCOs of 2.25% to 2.3% for the year, which results in a total consolidated loss rate of 1.5% to 1.55%. Adjusted noninterest expense guidance is unchanged, with controllable expenses expected to be down more than 1% year-over-year and total expenses up less than 2%. We expect average earning assets to increase on a linked-quarter basis, but still expect to be down approximately 1% this year, reflecting our disciplined approach to optimizing risk-adjusted returns over origination volume and growth. We have adjusted our full year guide on tax rate to negative 25% to 30% based on the momentum in EV lease and the update to earnings outlook.

我們預計今年零售汽車 NCO 為 2.25% 至 2.3%，這導致總綜合虧損率為 1.5% 至 1.55%。調整後的非利息支出指引不變，可控支出預期年減超過1%，總支出成長不到2%。我們預計平均獲利資產將環比成長，但今年仍預計將下降約 1%，這反映出我們在優化發行量和成長方面的風險調整回報方面採取了嚴格的方法。根據電動車租賃的勢頭和盈利前景的更新，我們已將全年稅率指南調整為負 25% 至 30%。

Before I turn it over to Michael, I want to again reiterate our focus on delivering a mid-teens return over time. We have significant tailwinds based on the strength of our auto and deposit franchises that will drive net interest margin sustainably higher. And we've taken the appropriate steps to drive losses lower over time. The exact timing of mid-teens will depend on several factors. It will not be a straight line, and the combination of temporary margin pressure and elevated losses will be a headwind for the next few quarters.

在我把它交給邁克爾之前，我想再次重申我們的重點是隨著時間的推移提供十幾歲左右的回報。基於我們的汽車和存款特許經營權的實力，我們擁有巨大的順風車，這將推動淨利差持續走高。我們已經採取了適當的措施來隨著時間的推移降低損失。青少年時期的確切時間取決於幾個因素。這不會是一條直線，暫時的利潤壓力和虧損增加的結合將成為未來幾季的阻力。

But we're confident in what the business can deliver. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Michael.

但我們對業務所能提供的服務充滿信心。有了這個，我會把它轉回給麥可。

Thank you, Russ. Before we get to questions, I want to acknowledge the next few quarters will be choppy. I remain confident in our franchise and our ability to deliver compelling returns. Our deep-rooted history in auto is set on relationships with dealer customers. Our value proposition remains simple: consistently help our dealers succeed in all aspects of their business.

謝謝你，拉斯。在我們提問之前，我想承認接下來的幾季將會很不穩定。我對我們的特許經營權以及我們提供令人信服的回報的能力仍然充滿信心。我們在汽車領域根深蒂固的歷史建立在與經銷商客戶的關係之上。我們的價值主張仍然很簡單：始終如一地幫助我們的經銷商在業務的各個方面取得成功。

We have seen the success of this model to record application flows, driving strong risk-adjusted margins on originations. At Ally Bank, our quality retail deposit portfolio is a source of strength. What Ally has been able to achieve in 15 years is remarkable, and the team didn't just build another bank. They built a better bank. As a leader in the digital banking space, I'm encouraged by the opportunities we have in front of us to remain disruptive and innovative, creating differentiated value for our more than 3 million deposit customers. Our deposits will make us liability sensitive. And now the Fed has begun in the easing cycle, we are well positioned for earnings growth over the medium term.

我們已經看到這種模式在記錄申請流程方面取得了成功，推動了強勁的風險調整利潤。在 Ally Bank，我們優質的零售存款組合是力量的來源。Ally 在 15 年裡所取得的成就是令人矚目的，而且該團隊不僅僅是建立了另一家銀行。他們建立了一家更好的銀行。身為數位銀行領域的領導者，我對眼前的機會感到鼓舞，可以保持顛覆性和創新性，為我們超過 300 萬存款客戶創造差異化價值。我們的存款將使我們的責任變得敏感。現在聯準會已經開始寬鬆週期，我們已經為中期獲利成長做好了準備。

We continue to diversify our revenue streams in insurance and auto. Insurance will generate $1.5 billion of written premiums this year, reflective of new OEM relationships and synergies with our auto finance business. In auto, we continue to further monetize our application volume and see the benefits from our online vehicle auction platform, SmartAuction. Between NIM and fee revenue, momentum we have in total revenues will drive meaningful shareholder value over the medium term. Credit costs are elevated in a macro environment that's challenging after continued pressure from inflation and low personal savings rates.

我們持續實現保險和汽車收入來源多元化。保險今年將產生 15 億美元的承保保費，這反映了新的 OEM 關係以及與我們的汽車金融業務的協同效應。在汽車領域，我們繼續進一步將我們的申請量貨幣化，並看到我們的線上車輛拍賣平台 SmartAuction 帶來的好處。在淨利差和費用收入之間，我們在總收入方面的勢頭將在中期推動有意義的股東價值。在通貨膨脹和低個人儲蓄率的持續壓力下，宏觀環境充滿挑戰，信貸成本上升。

We have managed auto originations through selective underwriting and pricing strategies. These changes have been meaningful, continuous, and informed by granular performance data. And with relatively short duration, that should drive losses down over the medium term in this environment.

我們透過選擇性承保和定價策略來管理汽車的起源。這些變化是有意義的、持續的，並且由精細的性能數據提供資訊。由於持續時間相對較短，在這種環境下，中期內損失應該會下降。

While we expect net revenues to expand, we will continue to be disciplined with expense management. We will manage capital dynamically. We're focused on allocating resources to our highest returning businesses and continuing to organically grow our capital buffer in anticipation of Basel III.

雖然我們預計淨收入將擴大，但我們將繼續嚴格費用管理。我們將動態管理資本。我們專注於將資源分配給回報率最高的業務，並根據巴塞爾協議 III 的預期繼續有機增長我們的資本緩衝。

So let me be clear. I am confident in our franchise and the ability to deliver compelling returns. Given the level of macro uncertainty we're managing, the exact timing of getting those returns will be fluid. As CEO, I'm evaluating all aspects of our business, and I am committed to growing shareholder value and delivering compelling financial results. We will take the actions necessary to accomplish this.

讓我說清楚。我對我們的特許經營權和提供令人信服的回報的能力充滿信心。考慮到我們正在管理的宏觀不確定性程度，獲得這些回報的確切時間將是不穩定的。作為首席執行官，我正在評估我們業務的各個方面，並致力於提高股東價值並提供引人注目的財務表現。我們將採取必要的行動來實現這一目標。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Sean for Q&A.

接下來，我會將其交給 Sean 進行問答。

Thank you, Michael. As we head into Q&A, we do ask that participants limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Elizabeth, please begin the Q&A.

謝謝你，麥可。當我們進入問答階段時，我們確實要求參與者將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。伊麗莎白，請開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Ryan Nash，高盛。

Hey good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Good morning, Ryan. How are you?

早安，瑞安。你好嗎？

Good. So I appreciate that the next few quarters are going to be choppy. Maybe just to start on credit. I think, Russ, you noted that you expect the rate of change on losses to move lower over time. However, if I start in the near term, if I look at the midpoint of the guidance, I think it implies the fourth quarter loss rate in retail auto could actually see an increase in the year-over-year loss rate of something north of 2.6%. Can you maybe just help us think about where we go from here?

好的。因此，我意識到接下來的幾季將會出現波動。也許只是開始賒帳。我想，拉斯，您指出您預計損失的變化率會隨著時間的推移而降低。然而，如果我從近期開始，如果我看一下指導的中點，我認為這意味著零售汽車第四季度的損失率實際上可能會出現同比損失率的上升。你能幫我們想想接下來我們該去哪裡嗎？

And then I know you both mentioned that you're confident that losses will come down over time at '22 peak, the tighter underwriting from the second half of '23 and '24 come through. But do you expect losses to actually be down in '25? And I have a follow-up.

然後我知道你們都提到，你們有信心隨著時間的推移，損失將在 22 年的高峰期下降，23 年下半年和 24 年的承保收緊將會出現。但您預計 25 年損失實際上會下降嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. Maybe I'll start with 4Q. I think we do anticipate the majority of the 4Q increase will be seasonality. We've also -- we also include, of course, the impact of the recent storms, which will create some noise.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。也許我會從 4Q 開始。我認為我們確實預計第四季度的成長大部分將是季節性的。當然，我們也包括最近風暴的影響，這會產生一些噪音。

Granted, we've reserved for that. And so when you kind of think about delinquencies certainly over the next quarter -- next quarter or so, there is some noise there. That being said, as we discussed, we made significant curtailment actions over the course of 2023 and '24, and we're seeing that in terms of the vintage dynamics. And so we do it, and that gives us confidence in terms of eventually seeing losses normalize. Also, when you think about used car prices, the further we get from peak used car prices back in 2022, that's also helpful to us in terms of severity going forward.

當然，我們已經為此預留了空間。因此，當你考慮下一個季度的拖欠情況時——下個季度左右，就會出現一些噪音。話雖這麼說，正如我們所討論的，我們在 2023 年和 24 年期間採取了重大的削減行動，我們在年份動態方面看到了這一點。所以我們就這麼做了，這讓我們對最終看到損失正常化充滿信心。此外，當你考慮二手車價格時，我們距離 2022 年二手車價格高峰越遠，這對我們未來的嚴重程度也有幫助。

So I think we see a lot of things in terms of credit that we're positive about and give us confidence around the medium-term picture. All that being said, we're carrying an elevated level of DQs, gives us more sensitivity to changes in the macro environment. And kind of when we think about this year and fourth quarter, we're our full year guide is for [225 to 230]. We're probably exiting a little bit higher than that. And so that all kind of factors into how we think about 2025.

因此，我認為我們在信貸方面看到了很多我們樂觀的事情，這讓我們對中期前景充滿信心。話雖如此，我們的 DQ 水平有所提高，這使我們對宏觀環境的變化更加敏感。當我們想到今年和第四季時，我們的全年指南是針對[225至230]。我們退出的價格可能會比這個高一點。因此，各種因素都會影響我們對 2025 年的看法。

As you know, as you're accustomed to, we typically don't give our 2025 guidance until January when we report the full year, and we're going to stick to that this year as well. But I guess to kind of hit to the gist of your question, we expect normalization in NCO levels over time. We're not going to call it in terms of a particular quarter, just given the volatility that we've talked about and some of the factors in the macro and the delinquencies. But again, just kind of given what we're seeing as we look at the vintage dynamics and just kind of looking at the some of the curtailment that we've put in place, we feel confident that we'll see that reduction in NCOs over the medium term.

如您所知，正如您所習慣的那樣，我們通常要到 1 月份報告全年情況時才會給出 2025 年的指導，今年我們也將堅持這一點。但我想，為了切中你問題的要旨，我們預計 NCO 水平會隨著時間的推移而趨於正常化。我們不會根據特定季度來稱呼它，只是考慮到我們已經討論過的波動性以及宏觀因素和拖欠率。但同樣，考慮到我們在觀察老式動態以及我們已經實施的一些削減時所看到的情況，我們有信心看到士官人數的減少從中期來看。

Got it. And as my follow-up, I appreciate all the new disclosures on the rate sensitivity. Russ, I thought you noted that you expect expansion at some point through '25. If we were to use the forward curve and whatever your deposit pricing expectations are -- and let's assume there's no changes in the lease accounting for now. When do you actually see this NIM inflection occurring?

知道了。作為我的後續行動，我感謝所有有關利率敏感性的新披露。Russ，我想您已經注意到您預計會在 25 年之前的某個時候進行擴張。如果我們使用遠期曲線以及無論您的存款定價預期是什麼，我們假設租賃會計目前沒有變化。您什麼時候真正看到這種 NIM 變化發生？

And can you maybe just talk about the pace of improvement when we do see it? Historically, you talked about 5% to 15%. What is that new dynamic look like now? And I fully recognize that we won't get full year guidance until next year, but just trying to understand how you're thinking about the inflection and the pacing over time. Thanks.

當我們確實看到改進時，您能否談談改進的速度？從歷史上看，您談到了 5% 到 15%。現在的新動態是什麼樣的呢？我完全認識到，我們要到明年才能獲得全年指導，但只是想了解您如何看待隨著時間的推移的變化和節奏。謝謝。

Yeah. Look, maybe I'll start just by saying nothing's changed in our medium-term described in the prepared remarks, as far as the medium term goes, the benefit we see from the rollover of the portfolio, continued expansion in the portfolio yield, just the overall asset mix away from mortgages and securities towards retail auto and corporate finance. The -- just the overall kind of pricing of our deposits as we approach a 70% beta in a lower rate environment. All of these things point to the same 4% NIM that we've talked about before.

是的。聽著，也許我首先要說的是，我們在準備好的評論中描述的中期沒有任何變化，就中期而言，我們從投資組合展期、投資組合收益率持續擴張中看到的好處，只是整體資產組合從抵押貸款和證券轉向零售汽車和企業融資。這只是我們存款的整體定價，因為我們在較低利率環境下接近 70% 的貝塔值。所有這些都指向我們之前討論過的 4% 的淨利差。

And so there's nothing that's really changed in that respect. I think what we wanted to highlight for everyone just kind of given the uncertainty around the rate outlook and how quickly it's moved over the last few months is there are these near-term pressures. And these near-term pressures depend very much on the size of any potential rate cuts, the pace of rate cuts, as well as just the overall competitive environment for deposits, and therefore, on the speed at which we get to our 70% deposit beta. And so we're being careful not to give quarterly guidance in that environment and not to kind of pin ourselves to any particular quarter. But I just want to reiterate that fundamentally, nothing has changed here, and it's still our view that we're going to get to our 4% NIM guide in the medium term.

所以在這方面沒有任何真正的改變。我認為，考慮到利率前景的不確定性以及過去幾個月利率變化的速度，我們想向大家強調的是，存在這些近期壓力。這些近期壓力在很大程度上取決於任何潛在降息的規模、降息的速度以及存款的整體競爭環境，因此也取決於我們達到 70% 存款的速度測試版。因此，我們非常小心，不要在這種環境下提供季度指導，也不要將自己固定在任何特定季度。但我只想重申，從根本上講，這裡沒有任何變化，我們仍然認為，我們將在中期內達到 4% 的淨息差指導值。

Thanks, Russ.

謝謝，拉斯。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. On the retail auto charge-off guidance, I know you bumped that up to 2.25% to 2.30% from the [2.10%] prior. We've seen a steady updrift here in that charge-off expectation. And what gives you confidence in this revision that it's appropriate? And then maybe can you just elaborate a little bit on the vintage side, in the 2023 vintage, how do you expect that to fare versus the 2022 vintage, given the worst macro backdrop that the 2023 vintage was facing?

早安.關於零售汽車沖銷指導，我知道您將其從之前的 [2.10%] 提高到了 2.25% 至 2.30%。我們看到沖銷預期穩定上升。是什麼讓您相信這次修訂是適當的？然後，也許您可以詳細說明一下年份方面，考慮到 2023 年年份面臨的最糟糕的宏觀背景，您預計 2023 年年份與 2022 年年份的情況如何？

Yeah. Those are both great questions, John. I think in terms of your first question on the revisions, you're correct. We have revised from the 2.1% to now a full year outlook of 2.25% to 2.30%. And look, I don't think what we're seeing is that kind of any different than what others are seeing in the auto book.

是的。這些都是很好的問題，約翰。我認為就你關於修訂的第一個問題而言，你是正確的。我們已將全年展望從 2.1% 調整為 2.25% 至 2.30%。看，我認為我們所看到的與其他人在汽車書籍中看到的沒有什麼不同。

Of course, respectful of the fact that we are a full spectrum lender and that we are primarily used vehicles. I think we're all kind of dealing with a unique set of circumstances that arise coming out of the pandemic in terms of what we saw in 2022, where we saw consumer that was faced with kind of higher prices at the dealership, higher used car prices. And also just some of the dynamics around excess savings coming out of the pandemic and the inflation that we've seen since in terms of the cumulative impact of inflation on people's overall budgets.

當然，要尊重這樣一個事實：我們是一家全方位貸款機構，而且我們主要經營二手車。我認為，就我們在2022 年所看到的情況而言，我們都在應對大流行中出現的一系列獨特情況，我們看到消費者在經銷店面臨著更高的價格、更高的二手車價格價格。就通貨膨脹對人們整體預算的累積影響而言，這只是大流行和我們所看到的通貨膨脹帶來的過剩儲蓄的一些動態。

And so I think we're all dealing with that. And we're all dealing with kind of elevated loss content across our vintages, but in particular, with the 2022 vintage. And that was a large vintage for us here at Ally, as you know. I think as we look at credit bureau data, what we see with the credit bureau data for -- on a like-for-like basis, kind of very similar. And so again, kind of gives us confidence that what we're seeing isn't different from the industry.

所以我認為我們都在處理這個問題。我們都在應對各年份的損失含量升高的問題，尤其是 2022 年年份。如您所知，這對我們 Ally 來說是一個重要的年份。我認為，當我們查看信用局數據時，我們看到的信用局數據在同類基礎上非常相似。這再次給了我們信心，讓我們相信我們所看到的與產業沒有什麼不同。

I think our expectations, the expectations that kind of form the view of the 2.1% loss rate for the year assumed some improvement in credit on the basis of the vintage rollover from '22 to '23, that was optimistic. And I think that's a key point here, is that that those expectations were optimistic.

我認為我們的預期，即對今年 2.1% 損失率的預期，假設信貸在 22 年至 23 年的延期滾動基礎上有所改善，這是樂觀的。我認為這裡的一個關鍵點是，這些期望是樂觀的。

And so I think nothing's changed. Our expectation is still that we'll see improvement as we roll forward the vintages from '22 to '23 and '24. We are still seeing separation in terms of delinquency rates at similar time on book. And so we are still seeing the '23 vintage outperform '22. And now the early read on '24 is that, that is outperforming '23, all consistent with the level of underwriting changes that we made over time.

所以我認為一切都沒有改變。我們的期望仍然是，當我們將年份從 22 年滾動到 23 年和 24 年時，我們會看到改進。我們仍然看到在帳面相似時間的拖欠率方面存在分離。因此，我們仍然看到 '23 年份酒的表現優於 '22 年份酒。現在對 24 年的早期解讀是，它的表現優於 23 年，所有這些都與我們隨著時間的推移所做的承保變化水平一致。

And in fact, when we look at these vintages on a quarterly basis, that separation is even more clear to us. And so I think on the overall direction of losses, nothing's changed. But in terms of timing, we do acknowledge that there's more uncertainty around the timing of it. There's probably more sensitivity to the macro and some volatility in the near term. And it's probably a longer road to get to more normalized NCO levels going forward.

事實上，當我們按季度查看這些年份時，這種分離對我們來說更加清晰。所以我認為就損失的總體方向而言，沒有任何改變。但就時間安排而言，我們確實承認其時間安排存在更多不確定性。短期內可能對宏觀經濟更加敏感，並出現一些波動。未來要達到更加標準化的士官水準可能還有更長的路要走。

We're not going to put a particular timeline or a particular quarter on when we see a turn at this point. But obviously, we'll come back in January and give you and everyone else a more fulsome update in terms of where we are and what we see at that point in time with the benefit of seeing the close of 2024.

當我們看到此時的轉折時，我們不會給出特定的時間表或特定的季度。但顯然，我們將在 1 月回來，為您和其他所有人提供更全面的更新，了解我們所處的位置以及我們當時所看到的情況，並在 2024 年結束時受益。

Thanks for that, Russ. I appreciate it. And then just on capital, I know you expressed your intent to continue to build capital off the 9.8% level CET1. Can you just remind us where you would like to see that go to, where your target is at this point? Thanks.

謝謝你，拉斯。我很感激。然後就資本而言，我知道您表達了繼續在 9.8% 的 CET1 水平上建立資本的意圖。您能否提醒我們您希望看到它去往何處，您目前的目標在哪裡？謝謝。

Yeah. It's a good question. I'm glad you asked because I do want to clarify one point or at least put a footnote on the 9.8%. We've got some headwinds coming over the next couple of quarters. As you know, we've got the final phase-in of CECL coming. And that will kind of take approximately 20 basis points. And then we talked about a potential accounting change around how we treat EV lease tax credits.

是的。這是一個好問題。我很高興你問這個問題，因為我確實想澄清一點，或至少在 9.8% 上加一個腳註。未來幾季我們會遇到一些阻力。如您所知，CECL 的最終階段即將到來。這大約需要 20 個基點。然後我們討論了圍繞我們如何處理電動車租賃稅收抵免的潛在會計變化。

If we were to go ahead with that accounting change, there would be a CET1 impact there that we talked about in the prepared remarks, about 20 basis points. And so I did just want to point out that we've got some headwinds that we've got to care for in terms of capital with respect to that 9.8%. I think as we think about the 9.8%, we feel good that it gives us a degree of flexibility as we think about capital going forward.

如果我們繼續進行會計變更，就會對 CET1 產生影響，我們在準備好的評論中談到了這一點，大約是 20 個基點。因此，我只是想指出，就 9.8% 而言，我們在資本方面遇到了一些阻力，必須加以關注。我認為，當我們考慮 9.8% 時，我們感覺很好，因為它為我們考慮未來的資本提供了一定程度的靈活性。

We are not looking at capital necessarily in terms of exactly where we are today. We're looking at capital in anticipation of what's coming with Basel III. And as you know, the most impactful part of that for us is the inclusion of AOCI and CET1. We are awaiting final details of Basel III, and we're waiting to get the final transition timing, the final phase-in timing of Basel III. We feel good about our ability to manage through that organically. But obviously, that's a factor that we think about as we think about our capital from a quarter-to-quarter period.

我們不一定根據我們今天的處境來看待資本。我們正在考慮資本，以預測巴塞爾協議 III 的未來。如您所知，對我們影響最大的部分是 AOCI 和 CET1 的納入。我們正在等待巴塞爾協議III的最終細節，我們正在等待獲得巴塞爾協議III的最終過渡時間、最終分階段實施時間。我們對自己有機地管理這個問題的能力感到滿意。但顯然，這是我們在考慮每季的資本時考慮的因素。

Great. Thank you, Russ.

偉大的。謝謝你，拉斯。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑·薩赫拉尼 (Sanjay Sakhrani)，KBW。

Thanks. Good morning. (inaudible) on this credit. But maybe just moving to how the cohorts are going. You obviously pivoted to a more conservative underwriting in second quarter '23 onwards. I mean, are those cohorts behaving like you expected them to? Like I know you're 40% S-Tier? Or has something changed even in the behavior of your S-Tier?

謝謝。早安. （聽不清楚）以此信用。但也許只是轉向隊列的進展。顯然，從 2023 年第二季起，你們轉向了更保守的承保。我的意思是，這些群體的行為是否符合您的期望？我知道你是 40% S 級？或者你的 S 層的行為也改變了？

It's a good question. And Sanjay, I would say just -- as the exhibits that we presented indicates, we continue to see kind of better performance as we roll through the quarters of '23, starting kind of second quarter '23 and going on even through the early quarters of 2024. And gives us confidence that the underwriting changes we made were effective. And also, as we look at the progressive separation as we go through the quarters, which we didn't show, but we look at obviously and pay a lot of attention to internally, again, provides reassurance that the underwriting changes are effective in terms of seeing that separation grow as you progress through the quarters. That being said -- and we talked about this at a recent investor conference.

這是一個好問題。Sanjay，我想說的是，正如我們展示的展品所表明的那樣，隨著我們進入 23 年的季度，從 23 年第二季度開始，甚至在前幾個季度，我們繼續看到更好的表現2024 年。並使我們相信我們所做的承保變更是有效的。而且，當我們看到各個季度的逐步分離時（我們沒有展示這一點，但我們顯然在內部進行了觀察並給予了很多關注），這再次保證了承保變化在方面是有效的。各個季度的進步，你會看到這種差距越來越大。話雖如此，我們在最近的投資者會議上討論了這一點。

In terms of kind of what we've seen in terms of delinquency over the course of July, August, September, that -- the delinquency we saw in the NCOs underperformed our expectations. And I think part of that, as I mentioned in response to an earlier question on credit, was just a reflection of -- I think we had assumptions about improvement based on the rollover of the vintages that we're optimistic. All that being said, the vintages do show that progressive improvement in performance. But I'd say they kind of missed our expectations in terms of just the overall level.

就我們在 7 月、8 月和 9 月所看到的拖欠行為而言，我們在士官中看到的拖欠行為低於我們的預期。我認為，正如我在回答之前關於信貸的問題時提到的那樣，這只是反映了——我認為我們根據我們樂觀的年份的展期對改善做出了假設。話雖如此，這些年份確實表明了性能的逐步提高。但我想說，就整體水準而言，他們有點低於我們的預期。

And that informs our sensitivity around providing any kind of guidance around timing. But it also informs again, just continuing to see that improvement by vintage also informs our view that we will see NCOs come down over time. We're just not going to give you a specific timeline in terms of a particular quarter in which you'd expect to see that.

這表明我們對提供任何有關時間安排的指導的敏感性。但它也再次告訴我們，只要繼續看到年份的改進也告訴我們，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到 NCO 下降。我們只是不會向您提供您希望看到這一情況的特定季度的具體時間表。

Russ, it's probably worth talking about -- a lot of focus, obviously, here on vintages. There's also the notion of severity. And one of the unique factors of '22 is just where used car prices where car prices in general or vehicle prices and where they're trending. Maybe just a little color on severity also because when you put the two together, I think it's what gives some confidence. I think it gives us a lot of confidence in terms of the fact that these trends will shift.

Russ，這可能值得一提——顯然，這裡的許多焦點都集中在年份上。還有嚴重性的概念。'22 的獨特因素之一是二手車價格、一般汽車價格或車輛價格及其趨勢。也許只是在嚴重性上加上一點顏色，因為當你把兩者放在一起時，我認為這會帶來一些信心。我認為這給了我們很大的信心，因為這些趨勢將會發生轉變。

Yes, absolutely. And we showed on an exhibit in the presentation the AUVI Index as a transition through the quarters. And you can see we hit peak used car prices in the second quarter of 2022. And I'd say in that environment, new car prices were also elevated, and consumer selection was very limited. And so as we move further away from those peak prices in terms of new and used vehicles, we get a good guide from severity.

是的，絕對是。我們在演示中展示了 AUVI 指數作為各季度的過渡。您可以看到二手車價格在 2022 年第二季達到高峰。我想說在那種環境下，新車價格也水漲船高，消費者的選擇也非常有限。因此，當我們進一步遠離新車和二手車的峰值價格時，我們可以從嚴重性中得到很好的指導。

And you combine the good guide from severity as well as the impact of progressive changes to our underwriting -- and again, that gives us reassurance and confidence around eventually improving NCO levels.

您將嚴重性的良好指導以及逐步變化對我們承保的影響結合起來，這再次讓我們對最終提高 NCO 水平感到放心和信心。

My follow-up question, Michael, maybe it's for you. You've obviously come into this. I'm just curious of what your take on it is? And maybe the question I get from investors or -- is your feelings on the long-term targets, do you think that they might be aggressive? Or do you feel like that makes sense? Thanks.

我的後續問題，邁克爾，也許是問你的。你顯然已經陷入了這個境地。我只是好奇你對此有何看法？也許我從投資者那裡得到的問題是——你對長期目標的感受，你認為它們可能會很激進嗎？或者你覺得這樣說有道理嗎？謝謝。

Thanks for the question. And maybe I'll address the long-term targets first and then the kind of my approach to kind of understanding, if you will, second. Like in terms of long-term targets, we talk about a mid-teens return on capital. And so I guess the question is what needs to be true in or to achieve that. And to me, that actually boils down to mainly three factors.

謝謝你的提問。也許我會先解決長期目標，然後是我的理解方法，如果你願意的話，其次。就像長期目標一樣，我們談論的是十幾歲左右的資本回報率。所以我想問題是需要什麼才能實現這一目標或實現這一目標。對我來說，這實際上主要歸結為三個因素。

One, credit needs to normalize in the way that we expect. Second is margin needs to expand, something that looks like around 4%. And there are a number of paths to get there. We think the most likely path is that we retrace betas in a falling rate environment. And that would be pretty consistent with what we've seen in prior easening and tightening cycles.

第一，信貸需要按照我們預期的方式正常化。其次是利潤率需要擴大，大約在 4% 左右。有很多途徑可以到達那裡。我們認為最可能的路徑是在利率下降的環境中回溯貝塔值。這與我們在先前的寬鬆和緊縮週期中看到的情況非常一致。

And so that's the second factor. And the third is that we need to manage both expenses and capital well. And hopefully, you will see that we've actually done that, I think, very well this year, and we're committed to continue doing that. And so this kind of links back to the first part of your question, which is on credit. And so when your kind of new to enroll.

這是第二個因素。第三，我們要管理好費用和資本。希望您會看到我們今年實際上已經做到了這一點，我認為做得很好，並且我們致力於繼續這樣做。因此，這種連結回到你問題的第一部分，這是信用的。所以當你是新來的人註冊的時候。

And so what do you do, you come in, you ask lots of questions. And lots of questions on credit, you clearly pay attention to the vintages, roll rates, collateral values. You pay attention to the portfolio level and also a segment level. And I think it's important, averages can be deceiving, and so you have to really kind of deaverage the business in many, many ways to really get comfortable with what's going on.

那你會做什麼，你進來，問很多問題。還有很多關於信用的問題，你顯然會關注年份、滾動利率、抵押品價值。您專注於投資組合層級和細分市場。我認為這一點很重要，平均數可能具有欺騙性，因此您必須以多種方式真正降低業務平均數，才能真正適應正在發生的事情。

And as we kind of look and we deaverage the base of the business, I don't want to kind of get too far to the weeds here. But you do need to look at the '23 origination really by quarter. And then also really by segment. And I think someone earlier asked the question about the performance of '23 vintage relative to expectation. And you do see on a like-for-like credit basis that the '23 vintage actually, in some cases, looks worse than '22, but the mix impacts have been well met.

當我們觀察並削弱業務基礎時，我不想太過關注這裡的雜草。但您確實需要按季度查看 23 年的起源。然後也確實是按部分劃分。我認為早些時候有人問過關於 '23 年份酒相對於預期的表現的問題。您確實會發現，在同等信用基礎上，23 年年份實際上在某些情況下看起來比 22 年更差，但混合影響已得到很好的滿足。

And so the underwriting changes that were made in '23, we're actually seeing that come through in the roll rates. And we're seeing that coming through in the vintages. And I think that's going to be bolstered by the collateral values as well.

因此，23 年進行的承保變化，我們實際上看到了滾動費率的變化。我們在年份中看到了這一點。我認為抵押品價值也將支撐這一點。

And so, trust me, when I'm here, and we came in, we talked about mid-teens return. Look, I've done my own math, I've challenged the math we have here, and there is a path here. We're being less prescriptive about the timing. And the reason we're being less prescriptive with timing because a lot can happen with the shape of the yield curve and the forward rates, and I'm no better at predicting that than anyone else. And the credit normalization, we have confidence it's going to occur. We've probably been a bit optimistic right now. And then so we're kind of being cautious in terms of being too prescriptive on when that's going to happen.

所以，相信我，當我在這裡的時候，我們進來的時候，我們談論了青少年時期的回歸。看，我已經完成了自己的數學，我挑戰了我們這裡的數學，這裡有一條路。我們對時間的規定較少。我們對時機的規定較少的原因是，殖利率曲線和遠期利率的形狀可能會發生很多事情，而我並不比其他人更擅長預測這一點。對於信貸正常化，我們有信心它會發生。我們現在可能有點樂觀。因此，我們對何時發生這種情況過於規範，持謹慎態度。

When you look at the underlying data, when you look at the vintages and you can actually see what's going on in collateral values, it gives the confidence there. And then hopefully, you see that on the expense and capital side, we're doing what's required in order to be good custodians of this business.

當您查看基礎數據時，當您查看年份時，您實際上可以看到抵押品價值的變化，這會給您信心。希望您會看到，在費用和資本方面，我們正在採取必要的措施，以便成為這項業務的良好託管人。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Yeah. Thanks. So the geography of where the economics of your EV leasing business fall through the income statement is obviously very different from the other kind of lending and leasing businesses. Could you just talk about how that impacts your ability to get to the 4% NIM?

是的。謝謝。因此，電動車租賃業務在損益表中的經濟分佈顯然與其他類型的貸款和租賃業務有很大不同。您能談談這對您達到 4% NIM 的能力有何影響嗎？

Yeah. It's a fair question. So maybe just a quick review of the geography. So right now, we use what's known as the flow-through method of accounting which we put in place in the first quarter of 2023. Under the flow-through method, the geography and the timing of the lease are such that -- of the EV lease tax credit is such that we basically take the benefit of the tax credit, almost all of it upfront on day one and in the tax line.

是的。這是一個公平的問題。所以也許只是快速回顧一下地理。所以現在，我們使用我們在 2023 年第一季實施的所謂的流通會計方法。在流通法下，租賃的地理位置和時間表使得電動汽車租賃稅收抵免的效果使我們基本上受益於稅收抵免，幾乎所有的稅收抵免都是在第一天和之後的預付。 。

And so when you kind of think about the lease contract itself and the overall economics, we underwrite that lease to very similar economics that we underwrite on an internal combustion or ICE lease. But unlike the internal combustion or ICE lease, instead of the economics coming through the NIM line, they're coming through the tax line. And so the NIM line in that respect is -- it just is lower relative to a comparable ICE lease.

因此，當您考慮租賃合約本身和整體經濟學時，我們會以與我們承保內燃機或內燃機租賃非常相似的經濟學方式承保該租賃。但與內燃機或 ICE 租賃不同，它們不是透過 NIM 線獲得經濟效益，而是透過稅收線獲得。因此，在這方面，淨利差線是——相對於可比較的 ICE 租賃來說，它只是較低。

The change in accounting that we're contemplating would have a switch to what's known as the deferral method. Under the deferral method, the accounting for the EV lease looks a lot more like an ICE lease. That is we take the benefit of the tax credit over time over the life of the lease through the net interest line. And so you get the benefit of basically higher NIM. As of third quarter, it would have added 6 basis points to NIM.

我們正在考慮的會計改革將轉向所謂的遞延法。在遞延法下，電動車租賃的會計處理看起來更像是 ICE 租賃。也就是說，我們在租賃期間內透過淨利息額度享受稅收抵免的好處。因此，您可以獲得基本上更高的淨利差（NIM）的好處。截至第三季度，淨利差將增加 6 個基點。

But you don't get the -- but it comes over time as opposed to coming upfront in the tax line. And so we'd have a tax rate that looks more normal. And you'd effectively have the same earnings, but over the life of the lease as opposed to kind of taking it all upfront. So again, that added up to about 6 basis points in the third quarter if our EV leases were treated the same as ICE leases or ICE leases.

但你沒有得到——但它是隨著時間的推移而出現的，而不是預先繳納稅款。因此我們的稅率看起來會更正常。實際上，您將獲得相同的收入，但在租賃期內，而不是預先全部收取。同樣，如果我們的電動車租賃與 ICE 租賃或 ICE 租賃同等對待，那麼第三季的漲幅將達到約 6 個基點。

Yeah, I'd say, look, when we think about our 4%, we're not looking at it to a level of precision where I think this kind of changes our view on getting there. Again, we feel confident on getting there on the basis of just the overall drivers of our business in terms of looking at our origination yield on auto versus our portfolio yield and looking at the continued roll-on of new vintages. Looking at our outlook for deposit pricing in light of a 70% beta and a lower rate environment and in terms of just thinking of the overall asset mix on our balance sheet, moving away from the mortgage and securities and towards more retail auto loans and corporate finance.

是的，我想說，看，當我們考慮 4% 時，我們並沒有將其考慮到精確程度，我認為這會改變我們對實現目標的看法。同樣，我們對實現這一目標充滿信心，僅基於我們業務的整體驅動因素，即考慮我們的汽車原始收益率與我們的投資組合收益率，以及新年份的持續滾動。鑑於 70% 的貝塔值和較低的利率環境，並考慮資產負債表上的整體資產組合，從抵押貸款和證券轉向更多的零售汽車貸款和企業貸款，我們對存款定價的前景進行了展望。金融。

And so yeah, they are kind of more big-picture drivers that get us to our 4% NIM target over time. And it's not at a level of precision where we can really kind of talk about 6 basis points here or there.

所以，是的，它們是更宏觀的驅動因素，隨著時間的推移，它們可以讓我們實現 4% 的淨利差目標。而且它還沒有達到我們可以真正在這裡或那裡談論 6 個基點的精確程度。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just looking at your originated yield, it still looks pretty strong. But can you talk about any impact that recent curtailments may have in your ability to continue to originate at such an accretive yield for your NIM?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後看看你的原始收益率，它看起來仍然相當強勁。但您能談談最近的削減可能會對您繼續以如此高的淨利差收益率產生的能力產生影響嗎？

Yeah. Look, I'd say, look, we've continued to be effective at being selective, taking advantage of the application volume that we've got to be able to put in place the curtailments and continue to get the yields that we're delivering. All that being said, I would say that we have seen a significant move in two- and three-year swap rates over the course of this year. They're down over 100 basis points since their peak in the spring. And that is a factor that we think is going to impact us somewhat on pricing going forward. I'd say we expect that 10.5% originated yield to come down in the fourth quarter.

是的。看，我想說，看，我們繼續有效地進行選擇性，利用我們必須能夠實施削減的申請量，並繼續獲得我們所期望的收益率交付。話雖如此，我想說的是，今年我們已經看到兩年期和三年期掉期利率發生了重大變化。與春季的峰值相比，它們已經下跌了 100 個基點。我們認為這項因素將對我們未來的定價產生一定影響。我想說，我們預計 10.5% 的原始收益率將在第四季度下降。

That being said, we expect kind of based on our pricing discipline that we'll continue to price an originated yield that exceeds our portfolio yield. And so we'll continue to see originations that are accretive to our overall yield. But just kind of given the rate environment as rates come down, we'll see pressure.

話雖如此，我們預計，根據我們的定價原則，我們將繼續對超過我們投資組合收益率的原始收益率進行定價。因此，我們將繼續看到能夠增加我們整體產量的創新。但考慮到利率下降的利率環境，我們會看到壓力。

Now I would point out, as you think about curtailment in underwriting, over the medium term, we do have the benefit of, at some point, starting to unwind some of these curtailments and in effect, capture more yield going forward. So we sit here today, we're north of 40% S-Tier. That's our highest credit quality tier. As we kind of look and think about the forward as we look at the front book and as we see improving our credit performance, we'll look to start unwinding that.

現在我要指出的是，當你考慮承保削減時，從中期來看，我們確實有好處，在某個時候，開始解除其中一些削減，實際上，未來可以獲得更多收益。所以我們今天坐在這裡，我們已經超過了 40% 的 S 級。這是我們的最高信用品質等級。當我們在查看前書時審視並思考未來，當我們看到我們的信用表現有所改善時，我們將開始放鬆這一點。

I won't put a timeline on that. It's certainly not something that we're doing right away. It's not something that I would look at -- look for in the next couple of quarters. But certainly, in the go forward, you can expect that we'll get some support from the unwinding of curtailment in terms of our originated yield as well.

我不會為此制定時間表。這當然不是我們馬上要做的事情。這不是我在接下來的幾季裡會關注的事情。但當然，在未來，你可以預期我們也將從削減限電的解除中獲得一些對我們原始收益率的支持。

Got it. Appreciate the comments.

知道了。感謝您的評論。

Robert Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

羅伯特·懷爾德哈克，自主研究。

Morning, guys. Bigger picture question on the curtailment. Do you expect that those decisions will lead to a meaningful reduction in your near prime and below exposure? And if so, what's the dealer reaction to that? Because I know you've talked about wanting a lot of application flow from dealers. So I'm curious if the curtailment decisions could have any impact on the flow from dealers and your broader relationship with the dealers as well.

早安，夥計們。關於削減的更大問題。您是否認為這些決定會導致您的接近黃金期和低於黃金期的風險敞口顯著減少？如果是這樣，經銷商對此有何反應？因為我知道您曾談到希望從經銷商獲得大量申請流量。因此，我很好奇限產決定是否會對經銷商的流量以及您與經銷商的更廣泛關係產生任何影響。

Look, so far, our relationships with dealers are very good, and that's part of the reason why we're able to draw the application flow that we're getting. I'd say dealers have a lot of respect for the fact that as the business has gone through different cycles and as different players in the auto finance market have ebbed and flowed, we've been very consistent. And so our ability to show up in size to underwrite a broad spectrum of credits to help them in terms of just making their businesses better, in terms of helping them with the used product, which is a very important product for them, helping them on the F&I side through our insurance products and then also providing solutions for them through SmartAuction and through our past -- Passthrough programs, which allow us -- the Passthrough programs allow us to speak for an even broader box than what we're necessarily willing to underwrite for our balance sheet.

到目前為止，我們與經銷商的關係非常好，這也是我們能夠繪製我們所獲得的申請流程的部分原因。我想說，經銷商非常尊重這樣一個事實：隨著業務經歷了不同的周期，隨著汽車金融市場上不同參與者的潮起潮落，我們一直非常一致。因此，我們有能力展示規模來承保廣泛的信貸，以幫助他們改善他們的業務，幫助他們使用二手產品，這對他們來說是非常重要的產品，幫助他們F&I 方面通過我們的保險產品，然後通過SmartAuction 和我們過去的直通計劃為他們提供解決方案，這使我們能夠——直通計劃使我們能夠代表比我們所願意的更廣泛的範圍發言。

And so I think all those things together support a very strong relationship with our dealers. And so I feel good about where -- how our dealers are thinking about us right now.

因此，我認為所有這些因素共同支持了我們與經銷商之間非常牢固的關係。因此，我對我們的經銷商現在如何看待我們感到滿意。

And also, if you think about -- if you kind of take a step back and look at our total application volume and the loans that we're booking, if the changes that we're making are -- we're seeing the effects in our balance sheet. I think from a dealer perspective, it's going to be a pretty modest adjustment as they kind of look at it because our look-to-book ratio gives us the ability to really be pretty thoughtful about which loans we're going to book.

而且，如果你想一想，如果你退一步看看我們的總申請量和我們預訂的貸款，如果我們正在做出的改變——我們就會看到效果在我們的資產負債表中。我認為從經銷商的角度來看，這將是一個相當溫和的調整，因為我們的觀看與預訂比率使我們能夠真正認真考慮我們將預訂哪些貸款。

Okay, thanks. And then just on the competitive intensity, you've been benefiting from a softer competitive environment for a little while now. There might be some indication that at least certain competitors are reentering. Are you seeing that? And what do you think that could mean for both originated yield and risk-adjusted returns going forward?

好的，謝謝。然後就競爭強度而言，你已經從較軟的競爭環境中受益了一段時間了。可能有一些跡象表明，至少某些競爭對手正在重新進入。你看到了嗎？您認為這對未來的原始收益率和風險調整回報意味著什麼？

Maybe you want to take that one?

也許你想拿走那個？

Okay. So we've seen some folks looking to come back to the market. You have to look at the segments where the folks who are reentering are playing in. A lot of them are in the prime, even super prime type space where we get a little less of our volume. And the other notion is we talked about curtailing here and there, but like, we're here through the cycle.

好的。所以我們看到一些人希望重返市場。你必須看看那些重新進入的人正在玩的部分。其中許多都位於優質甚至超優質類型的空間中，我們得到的體積要少一些。另一個想法是，我們到處談論削減，但就像，我們已經經歷了這個週期。

And being here through this cycle really matters to our dealer customers. And so we're seeing that benefit as well. And then in terms of pricing overall, yes, pricing will go down as rates go down. But look, I spend a lot of time looking at the risk-adjusted margin and clearly take into account swap rates. And then our kind of pro forma view on what credit losses are going to be. And we feel good about the business we're booking.

經歷這個週期對我們的經銷商客戶來說確實很重要。所以我們也看到了這種好處。然後就整體定價而言，是的，隨著利率下降，定價也會下降。但看，我花了很多時間研究風險調整保證金，並明確考慮掉期利率。然後是我們對信貸損失的預期看法。我們對所預訂的業務感覺良好。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑夫阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Russ, I guess, just maybe another one on credit. I apologize. I know we've all focused on this so much today. But relative to your update last month on the underperformance versus your expectations, the 10 basis points in charge-offs, 20 basis points in delinquencies in July and August. I was sort of hoping you'd be able to help us understand how the performance has migrated since that?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。拉斯，我想，也許只是另一筆賒帳。我道歉。我知道今天我們都非常關注這一點。但相對於您上個月關於表現不佳與預期的更新，7 月和 8 月的沖銷額增加了 10 個基點，拖欠額增加了 20 個基點。我有點希望你能夠幫助我們了解自那時起效能如何遷移？

Has the underperformance versus prior expectations sort of stabilized here as you look at September and early October? Or are there any shifts there? And then as it relates to late stage, I think you've been quite clear about that. I was curious about what maybe you're seeing or noticing more in the early-stage side of things as we start to think about 2025 here? Thanks.

從 9 月和 10 月初的情況來看，與先前預期相比表現不佳的情況是否已趨於穩定？或者說那裡有什麼變動嗎？至於後期，我想你已經說得很清楚了。我很好奇，當我們開始思考 2025 年時，您在早期階段可能會看到或註意到什麼？謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Jeff. In terms of performance relative to expectations, I'd say it's been stable coming out of September and the early October read. It's been pretty stable. And again, I think that gives us some degree of confidence as we kind of think about the forward.

偉大的。謝謝，傑夫。就相對於預期的表現而言，我想說九月和十月初的表現一直很穩定。一直很穩定。再說一次，我認為這給了我們一定程度的信心，因為我們在思考未來。

Again, not kind of giving any one kind of specific timing on when we expect credit to crest. But at the same time, again, we continue to see encouraging signs as we look through the vintages. And so all that, I think, feels pretty good. Sorry, what was your second question?

再說一次，我們並沒有給出任何一種具體的時間來說明我們預計信貸何時達到頂峰。但同時，當我們回顧各個年份時，我們仍然看到令人鼓舞的跡象。我認為這一切感覺都很好。抱歉，您的第二個問題是什麼？

Just an update on what you're seeing in the early-stage delinquency side?

只是您在早期犯罪方面所看到的最新情況嗎？

Yes. The early-stage delinquencies have been reasonably stable.

是的。早期拖欠情況相當穩定。

Okay. And then just on the potential accounting changes, is that something that you're hearing externally from external parties? Or does that some represent more productivity on your part to try to present a smoother earnings path and just try to drive more conservatism in the earnings profile?

好的。然後，就潛在的會計變化而言，您是否從外部各方聽到了這些變化？或者，這代表您的生產力更高，試圖呈現更順暢的獲利路徑，並只是試圖推動獲利狀況更加保守？

Yeah. Look, I'd say -- it's something that we've been discussing for a little while. And essentially, if you kind of look at the volume of EV leases that we've done, we obviously picked up significantly after entering into the agreement with the OEM earlier this year. And you kind of do the comparison between this year and last year. Last year, third quarter, there was probably -- the EV lease tax credit was probably a single-digit impact on our overall tax rate.

是的。聽著，我想說──這是我們已經討論了一段時間的事情。從本質上講，如果你看一下我們已經完成的電動車租賃量，你會發現在今年稍早與原始設備製造商簽訂協議後，我們的電動車租賃量明顯大幅增加。你可以將今年和去年進行比較。去年第三季度，電動車租賃稅收抵免可能對我們的整體稅率產生個位數的影響。

And so it was there, it was something, but it wasn't something that we spent a lot of time kind of thinking through in terms of how that impacted the presentation of our overall income statement in terms of NIM and tax and just kind of the overall kind of quarterly ebb and flow.

所以它就在那裡，它是一些東西，但我們並沒有花很多時間思考它如何影響我們在淨息差和稅收方面的整體損益表的呈現，只是一種整體按季有種潮起潮落。

But obviously, with this new OEM relationship in place, our lease volume has gotten larger. And so its impact similarly has gotten larger in terms of when you kind of look at that tax rate in particular. I'd say this quarter is a case in point in terms of seeing the impact not only from the tax credit in terms of the day one impact when you book the lease, but also the tax credit methodology requires us to do these quarterly true-ups as we progress through the year. And so that kind of introduces another variable.

但顯然，隨著這種新的 OEM 關係的建立，我們的租賃量變得更大。因此，當你特別關注稅率時，它的影響也變得更大。我想說，這個季度就是一個很好的例子，不僅可以看到稅收抵免對您預訂租賃時第一天的影響，而且稅收抵免方法要求我們按季度進行這些真實的-隨著我們在這一年中的進步，我們會不斷進步。因此這就引入了另一個變數。

And so as you can imagine, as we saw -- as we foresaw this kind of getting to be a bigger thing, we started having a lot of discussions that, quite frankly, were initiated by us around just kind of what's the right way to think about the accounting here and what's the right way to present this in terms of kind of presenting our financials in a way that we think kind of best represents our economics. And quite honestly, we're not kind of committing to any level of EV volume or EV lease volume over coming quarters. But so far, the flow of EV leases has been pretty good. And we don't really have any reason to see why it changes over the next few quarters.

正如你可以想像的那樣，正如我們所看到的，當我們預見到這種事情會變得更大時，我們開始進行很多討論，坦率地說，這些討論是由我們發起的，圍繞什麼是正確的方式考慮這裡的會計，以及以我們認為最能代表我們經濟的方式呈現我們的財務狀況的正確方式是什麼。老實說，我們不會承諾未來幾季的電動車銷售或電動車租賃量達到任何水平。但到目前為止，電動車租賃的流量相當不錯。我們確實沒有任何理由知道為什麼它會在接下來的幾個季度發生變化。

And so looking at all that and taking all that together, that's really caused us to initiate a lot of discussions around different accounting treatments. Now ultimately, it's a conversation we have, obviously, internally and also with our auditors. Kind of any final decision we make has to be blessed by our auditors. And so we continue to run the traps on that process over -- we'll continue to run the traps in that process over the coming several weeks, and we expect to kind of get to an answer in the fourth quarter.

因此，考慮到所有這些並將所有這些放在一起，這確實導致我們圍繞著不同的會計處理方式發起了很多討論。現在，最終，這顯然是我們內部以及與我們的審計師進行的對話。我們所做的任何最終決定都必須得到我們的審計師的認可。因此，我們將繼續在該流程中運行陷阱 - 我們將在接下來的幾週內繼續在該流程中運行陷阱，我們預計將在第四季度得到答案。

Okay. Great. Thank you, Russ.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，拉斯。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

That's all the time we have for today. As always, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us this morning. That concludes today's call.

這就是我們今天的全部時間了。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。再見。