安朗杰 (ALLE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Allegion fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Allegion 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Pokrzywinski, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Josh Pokrzywinski。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Allegion's fourth-quarter, 2024 earnings call. With me today are John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allegion.

謝謝你，德魯。大家早安。感謝您參加 Allegion 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的有 Allegion 總裁兼執行長 John Stone 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Wagnes。

Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and the presentation, which we will refer to in today's call, are available on our website at investor.Allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website.

我們的收益報告（已於今天早上發布）以及我們將在今天的電話會議上引用的簡報均可在我們的網站 investor.Allegion.com 上查閱。本次通話將被記錄並存檔在我們的網站上。

Please go to slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law.

請翻看投影片 2。今天電話會議中非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出。

We see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們看到了最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，其中描述了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的因素。該公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details.

今天的演示和評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的財務表中的對帳以了解更多詳細資訊。

Please go to slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to John.

請翻到投影片 3，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Q4 marked the end to another solid year of growth and strong execution by the entire Allegion team. We've demonstrated the resilience of our business model, expanded our industry leading margins, and accelerated capital deployment to invest in our business and return cash to shareholders.

謝謝，喬希。大家早安。感謝您的加入。第四季標誌著 Allegion 團隊又一個穩健成長和強勁執行的一年結束。我們展示了我們商業模式的彈性，擴大了我們行業領先的利潤率，並加快了資本部署以投資於我們的業務並向股東返還現金。

I'm pleased with the top line growth in the fourth-quarter in 2024 as a whole, especially in the Americas, where we've delivered mid-single digit growth for the past three quarters as comparisons have normalized.

我對 2024 年第四季整體的營收成長感到滿意，尤其是在美洲地區，隨著比較正常化，我們在過去三個季度實現了中等個位數的成長。

Over the past year, we have primed the portfolio and the organization to grow faster, especially as our business continues to benefit from the stability of our institutional base.

在過去的一年裡，我們已經為投資組合和組織的更快成長做好了準備，特別是我們的業務繼續受益於我們機構基礎的穩定性。

We accelerated capital deployment in 2024, returning cash to shareholders and growing our business with a creative tuck and acquisitions. Our strong cash generation, balance sheet, and pipeline of opportunities continue to position us well for future capital deployment to create long-term value for our shareholders.

我們在 2024 年加快了資本部署，向股東返還現金，並透過創造性的收購來發展我們的業務。我們強勁的現金創造能力、資產負債表和機會管道繼續為我們未來的資本部署做好準備，從而為我們的股東創造長期價值。

We're encouraged by trends in our America's non-residential business exiting 2024, and we'll share some additional market perspectives when we discuss 2025 outlook later in the call.

我們對 2024 年美國非住宅業務的趨勢感到鼓舞，我們將在電話會議稍後討論 2025 年前景時分享一些額外的市場觀點。

Please go to slide 4. Let's take a look at capital allocation for the full year. The Allegion Mark 2024 with meaningful product launches that demonstrate our deep customer understanding and the strength of our R&D effort and market leading brands.

請翻看投影片 4。讓我們來看看全年的資本配置。Allegion 將於 2024 年推出一系列意義重大的產品，以彰顯我們對客戶的深刻理解以及我們在研發和市場領先品牌方面的實力。

Throughout the year you heard us speak to a few of these, the Schlage XE360 series, our next generation commercial electronic lock family that supports the latest credential technologies across multi-family and commercial markets.

在這一年中，您聽到我們談論其中的一些產品，即 Schlage XE360 系列，這是我們的下一代商用電子鎖系列，支援跨多戶家庭和商業市場的最新憑證技術。

Schlagee's new smart lock integration with Airbnb, which was yet another industry, first for our company. And the Schlage indication Solutions, a best in class locked portfolio that allows users to more easily see the locked or unlocked status of a door specifically designed with K-12 school security in mind.

Schlagee 的新型智慧鎖與 Airbnb 的集成，對我們公司而言，還是業界的首創。Schlage 指示解決方案是同類最佳的鎖定產品組合，它使用戶可以更輕鬆地查看門的鎖定或解鎖狀態，該門專為 K-12 學校安全而設計。

Lastly, the Von Duprin 70 series, a new product line that's leveraging more than a century of expertise in developing high performance exit devices to meet the safe entry and egress needs of customers today.

最後，Von Duprin 70 系列是一條新產品線，它利用一個多世紀以來開發高性能出口設備的專業經驗來滿足當今客戶的安全進出需求。

We're very proud of these and many others that you may have also heard about. SimonsVoss in Germany launched AX2Go, supporting mobile smartphone-based credentials across both iOS and Android phones. And notably in Q4, Allegion became the first security solutions provider to support mobile credentials on Ware OS by Google smartwatches. Look for more announcements like these in 2025 as the Allegion continues to build on our legacy and invest for organic growth.

我們對這些以及您可能聽說過的許多其他事情感到非常自豪。德國 SimonsVoss 推出了 AX2Go，支援基於 iOS 和 Android 手機的行動智慧型手機憑證。值得注意的是，在第四季度，Allegion 成為第一家支援 Google Ware OS 智慧手錶上的行動憑證的安全解決方案提供者。隨著 Allegion 繼續秉承我們的傳統並投資於有機成長，我們將在 2025 年期待更多類似的公告。

Allegion executed M&A amounting to $137 million in 2024. This included five bolt on acquisitions spanning our core markets. In Allegion International, we added Boss doors and Dorcas to our portfolio, expanding how we go to market and expanding our electromechanical product portfolio.

Allegion 在 2024 年執行了價值 1.37 億美元的併購交易。其中包括五項涵蓋我們核心市場的額外收購。在 Allegion International，我們將 Boss 門和 Dorcas 添加到我們的產品組合中，擴大了我們的行銷方式並擴展了我們的機電產品組合。

In the Americas, we added Krieger Specialty Products, Unicell Architectural, and SOSS Door Hardware, which increased the breadth of highly profitable specialty offerings in our non-residential portfolio.

在美洲，我們增加了 Krieger Specialty Products、Unicell Architectural 和 SOSS Door Hardware，從而擴大了我們非住宅產品組合中高利潤專業產品的廣度。

All of these are leveraging Allegion's strengths like spec writing capability and expertise, or manufacturing, distribution scale and strong customer relationships. We're very pleased with the accretive returns they bring to a Allegion.

所有這些都利用了 Allegion 的優勢，例如規格編寫能力和專業知識、製造、分銷規模和強大的客戶關係。我們對他們為 Allegion 帶來的增值回報感到非常滿意。

We continue to see opportunity to grow inorganically in 2025 and have entered the year with a very active pipeline.

我們繼續看到 2025 年無機成長的機會，並且進入今年以來，我們的產品線非常活躍。

This was recently marked by our acquisition of the next door company in the United States and the announcement of our intent to acquire Lemaar in Australia. We'll share more on both of these bolt on acquisitions in our Q1 call.

最近，我們收購了隔壁的美國公司，並宣布了收購澳洲 Lemaar 的意向。我們將在第一季電話會議上分享有關這兩項附加收購的更多資訊。

Elision continues to be a dividend paying stock, and earlier this month, we announced our 11th consecutive increase to our dividend. As we've shared before, you can expect our dividends to grow commensurate with earnings over the long term.

Elision 繼續作為一檔股利股票，本月初，我們宣布連續第 11 次增加股利。正如我們之前所分享的，您可以預期我們的股息將與長期收益同步成長。

Last week we made share repurchases in the year amounting to approximately $220 million. We remain committed to balanced consistent capital allocation with a clear priority of investing for growth. We have an active pipeline that complements our core mechanical and electronics portfolio and leverages our channel strengths. I look forward to updating you as we progress through the year.

上週，我們今年回購了總額約 2.2 億美元的股票。我們依然致力於平衡一致的資本配置，明確優先投資成長。我們擁有活躍的管道，可以補充我們的核心機械和電子產品組合併利用我們的通路優勢。我期待著在新的一年向您報告最新進展。

Mike will now walk you through fourth-quarter financial results.

麥克現在將向您介紹第四季的財務業績。

Thanks, John, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining today's call.

謝謝，約翰，大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Please go to slide number 5. As John shared, our Q4 results reflect solid performance from the Allegion team, delivering another quarter of margin expansion with mid-single digit top line growth.

請翻到第 5 張投影片。正如約翰所說，我們的第四季業績反映了 Allegion 團隊的出色表現，實現了利潤率再擴大，營收實現了中位數個位數成長。

Revenue for the fourth quarter was $945.6 million, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2023. Organic revenue increased 3.5% in the quarter as a result of favorable price and volume.

第四季營收為 9.456 億美元，較 2023 年成長 5.4%。由於價格和銷量有利，本季有機收入增長了 3.5%。

We saw strength within our America segment with international organic revenue down slightly in the quarter. Q4 adjusted operating margin increased by 10 basis points, driven primarily by volume, leverage, and favorable mix.

我們看到美國分部的實力強勁，但本季國際有機收入略有下降。第四季調整後的營業利潤率增加了 10 個基點，主要得益於銷售量、槓桿率和有利的產品組合。

Price and productivity, net of inflation and investment was a slight headwind in Q4, but strong for the full year. I am pleased with the 70 basis points of operating margin expansion for the full year 2024. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 increased $0.18 or 10.7% versus the prior year. Operational performance, favorable attacks, and a creative capital deployment more than offset a slight headwind from interest and another.

扣除通貨膨脹和投資後的價格和生產力在第四季度略有阻力，但全年表現強勁。我對 2024 年全年營業利潤率成長 70 個基點感到滿意。調整後每股收益為 1.86 美元，較前一年增加 0.18 美元，即 10.7%。營運績效、有利的攻擊以及創造性的資本配置足以抵消來自利息和其他方面的輕微阻力。

Finally, full year 2024 available cash flow was $582.9 million, which was a 12.9% increase versus last year. We continue to effectively manage working capital and generate strong cash flow. I'll provide more details on our balance sheet and cash flow a little later in the presentation.

最後，2024 年全年可用現金流為 5.829 億美元，比去年成長 12.9%。我們繼續有效管理營運資金並產生強勁的現金流。我稍後將在演示中提供有關我們的資產負債表和現金流的更多詳細資訊。

Please go to slide number 6. This slide provides an overview of our quarterly revenue. I will review our enterprise results here before turning to our respective regions.

請翻到第 6 張投影片。這張投影片概述了我們的季度收入。在轉向各自的區域之前，我將在這裡回顧一下我們的企業表現。

Organic revenue grew 3.5% in the quarter, which included volume growth of 2.9% and price realization of 6.1%. Price realization stepped down about a point in the fourth-quarter versus Q3, largely due to timing of rebate accruals in the Americas business compared to prior year. For the full year, the enterprise had solid price realization of 2.4%, and as we think about 2025, we expect continued price realization. Acquisitions drove 2 points of growth in the quarter, and currency was a slight headwind, bringing total reported growth to 5.4%.

本季有機收入成長 3.5%，其中銷量成長 2.9%，價格成長 6.1%。第四季的價格實現量與第三季相比下降了約一個點，這主要是由於與去年同期相比美洲業務的回扣計提時間有所差異。就全年而言，該企業的價格實現率穩定在 2.4%，展望 2025 年，我們預期價格實現率將持續維持。收購推動了本季 2 個百分點的成長，而貨幣略有阻力，使報告的總成長率達到 5.4%。

Please go to slide number 7. Our America segment delivered strong operating results in Q4. Revenue of $750 million was up 6.4% on a reported basis and up 4.6% on an organic basis. Organic growth included both favorable price and volume in the quarter. Reported revenue includes 1.9% growth from acquisitions and a slight currency headwind. Our residential business was up high single digits in the quarter.

請翻到第 7 張投影片。我們的美洲分部在第四季度取得了強勁的營運業績。營收為 7.5 億美元，按報告基礎計算成長 6.4%，以有機基礎計算成長 4.6%。有機成長包括本季的有利價格和銷售量。報告的收入包括來自收購的1.9%的成長和輕微的貨幣逆風。本季度，我們的住宅業務實現了高個位數成長。

The quarter was stronger than expected, as some of our residential customers pulled in purchases ahead of inflation and tariff uncertainty. We believe underlying residential markets likely grew more in line with the previous couple of quarters.

本季的表現強於預期，因為我們的一些住宅客戶在通貨膨脹和關稅不確定性之前增加了購買量。我們相信基礎住宅市場的成長速度可能與前幾季保持一致。

As a result, Q4 revenue was benefited by approximately mid-single digit millions of dollars. Our non-residential business increased mid-single digits organically in the quarter as institutional and markets remain stable. We did not have pull ahead within our non-residential customers.

結果，第四季的營收增加了約幾千萬美元。由於機構和市場保持穩定，我們的非住宅業務在本季實現了中等個位數的有機成長。我們在非住宅客戶方面並未取得領先。

Electronics revenue was up low single digits compared to Q4 last year. As we discussed on prior calls, electronic comparisons in recent years have reflected the timing of supply chain disruptions in prior years.

與去年第四季相比，電子產品收入僅成長了個位數。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，近年來的電子比較反映了前幾年供應鏈中斷的時間。

America's adjusted operating income of $205.1 million increased 8.9% versus the prior year period. Adjusted operating margin was up 70 basis points as a result of favorable volume, leverage, and accretive acquisitions. Price and productivity, net of inflation and investments was a slight headwind in Q4, but strong for the full year.

美國調整後的營業收入為 2.051 億美元，較去年同期成長 8.9%。由於銷售、槓桿率和增值收購有利，調整後的營業利潤率上升了 70 個基點。扣除通貨膨脹和投資後的價格和生產力在第四季度略有阻力，但全年表現強勁。

Please go to slide number 8. Our international segment had a tough fourth-quarter driven by a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in Germany, which is our largest market internationally. Revenue of $195.6 billion was up 1.5% on a reported basis and down 7.1% organically.

請翻到第 8 張投影片。受嚴峻的宏觀經濟環境影響，我們的國際部門在第四季表現艱難，尤其是在我們最大的國際市場德國。報告期內，公司營收為 1,956 億美元，較去年同期上漲 1.5%，但有機下降 7.1%。

Acquisitions were a tailwind this quarter, positively impacted reported revenue by 2.4%. Currency was a slight headwind in the quarter versus prior year. China was also a headwind to international organic growth. We took additional steps in the quarter to exit our already small operations there.

收購是本季的一大利好，對報告收入產生了 2.4% 的正面影響。與去年同期相比，本季貨幣略有阻力。中國也對國際有機成長造成了阻礙。我們在本季採取了額外措施，退出那裡規模本來就很小的業務。

In total, we had approximately $5 million of revenue in full year 2024, which represents a slight headwind to 2025 organic growth. International adjusted operating income of $430.9 million decreased 4.3% versus the prior year period. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter decreased 100 basis points. While price and productivity exceeded inflation and investments, margin declines were due to lower volumes.

總體而言，我們在 2024 年全年的收入約為 500 萬美元，這對 2025 年的有機成長來說略有阻力。國際調整後營業收入為 4.309 億美元，較去年同期下降 4.3%。本季調整後的營業利潤率下降了 100 個基點。儘管價格和生產力超過了通貨膨脹和投資，但利潤率下降是由於產量下降造成的。

Please go to slide 9, and I will provide an overview of our cash flow and balance sheet. 2024 available cash flow came in at approximately $583 million up to $66.5 million versus the prior year. This increase is driven by higher earnings and improvements in working capital, partially offset by higher capital expenditures.

請翻到第 9 張投影片，我將概述我們的現金流量和資產負債表。 2024 年可用現金流約 5.83 億美元，較前一年增加 6,650 萬美元。這一成長主要得益於收益增加和營運資本改善，但被資本支出增加部分抵銷。

Working capital as a percent of revenue improved as we continue to focus on working capital efficiency to convert earnings to cash. We saw improvements in both inventory terms and DSO this year, which drove the improvement.

由於我們繼續注重營運資本效率以將收益轉化為現金，營運資本佔收入的百分比有所提高。今年，我們看到庫存條件和 DSO 均有所改善，這推動了改善。

Finally, our balance sheet remains strong. Our net debt to adjust the EBITA is at a healthy ratio of 1.6 times. Our business continues to generate strong cash flow and our balance sheet supports continued capital deployment.

最後，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。我們的淨債務調整EBITA的比例處於1.6倍的健康水準。我們的業務持續產生強勁的現金流，我們的資產負債表支援持續的資本部署。

I will now hand the call back over to John.

我現在將把電話交還給約翰。

Thanks, Mike. Please go to slide 10. Last quarter we provided some initial market commentary for 2025. Today I'd like to focus specifically on our institutional markets to provide more perspective on what's one of the main drivers of our business.

謝謝，麥克。請翻到第 10 張投影片。上個季度，我們對 2025 年的市場做出了一些初步評論。今天，我想特別關注我們的機構市場，以便對我們業務的主要驅動力之一提供更多的看法。

Allegion holds an enviable position in the industry here with strength in our sales footprint, our specification capabilities, and our relationships with channel partners.

Allegion 憑藉其強大的銷售覆蓋範圍、規範能力以及與通路合作夥伴的關係，在業界佔據著令人羨慕的地位。

We win business by solving complex problems for end users and working closely with architects with whom we've had decades-long relationships. As we start off 2025, we continue to see indications of stable growth in our key market segments.

我們透過為最終用戶解決複雜問題並與我們已經有數十年合作關係的建築師密切合作來贏得業務。隨著 2025 年的到來，我們繼續看到主要細分市場的穩定成長跡象。

A key source of funding, as indicated by new municipal bond issuance remains healthy following a very strong 2024, and you can expect these bonds will be spent over the next several years. Dodge Institutional indicators also support volume growth as square-footed starts have been in positive territory. The institutional markets are still growing, partially offset by known pockets of softness like commercial office and multi-family.

繼 2024 年強勁成長之後，新市政債券發行量仍保持健康，這表明一個重要的資金來源，您可以預期這些債券將在未來幾年內被使用。道奇機構指標也支持成交量成長，因為新屋開工面積一直處於正值區域。機構市場仍在成長，但被商業辦公室和多戶型住宅等已知疲軟領域部分抵消。

Please go to slide 11, and let's walk through our outlook for 2025. We expect total Allegion revenue growth to be 1% to 3% and organic revenue growth to be 1.5% to 3.5%. Total growth includes approximately 1 point of acquisitions, which is largely carry over from 2024, and approximately 1.5 points of headwind from foreign currency, primarily in the Allegion International.

請翻到第 11 張投影片，讓我們來看看我們對 2025 年的展望。我們預期 Allegion 總營收成長率為 1% 至 3%，有機收入成長率為 1.5% 至 3.5%。總成長包括約 1 個點的收購，大部分從 2024 年結轉，以及約 1.5 個點的外匯逆風，主要是在 Allegion International。

In the Americas, we expect organic revenue growth to be low to mid-single digits, with growth coming from both our non-residential and residential businesses. For Allegion International, we anticipate that organic revenue will remain relatively flat. As Mike mentioned earlier, macroeconomic conditions in our international markets, particularly in Germany, continue to be weak.

在美洲，我們預期有機收入成長率將達到低至中等個位數，成長將來自非住宅業務和住宅業務。對於 Allegion International，我們預計有機收入將保持相對穩定。正如麥克之前提到的，我們的國際市場，特別是德國的宏觀經濟條件持續疲軟。

We're estimating an adjusted earnings per share outlook in the range of $7.65 to $7.85. This represents growth of approximately 1.5% to 4% over the prior year period, inclusive of a significant headwind from tax rate, which is estimated to be 17.5% in 2025 at the midpoint. You can find more details in the appendix.

我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 7.65 美元至 7.85 美元之間。這意味著比去年同期增長約 1.5% 至 4%，其中包括稅率帶來的巨大阻力，預計 2025 年中位數為 17.5%。您可以在附錄中找到更多詳細資訊。

Lastly, our outlook on available cash flow is 85% to 90% of adjusted net income. We are committed to balanced, consistent, and disciplined approach to capital deployment, and this outlook assumes $86.7 million in average diluted shares outstanding, inclusive of anticipated share repurchases in 2025.

最後，我們對可用現金流的預測是調整後淨收入的 85% 至 90%。我們致力於採取均衡、一致且嚴謹的資本配置方式，本展望假設平均稀釋流通股數為 8,670 萬美元，其中包括 2025 年預期的股票回購。

Allegion's M&A pipeline is active and we anticipate allocating additional capital to acquisitions this year. However, this outlook does not account for any further acquisitions beyond the recent announcements we've shared on Next Door Company at Lemaar.

Allegion 的併購管道非常活躍，我們預計今年將為收購分配更多資金。然而，除了我們在 Lemaar 的 Next Door Company 上分享的最新公告之外，這種前景並未考慮任何進一步的收購。

One more item of interest that I'd like to cover, given the evolving headlines in recent weeks is tariffs. Our guidance includes the currently enacted tariffs on imports from China, and at the enterprise level, we import less than 5% of our cost of goods sold from China. We're taking a combination of pricing actions and sharing those costs with our suppliers to minimize the impact.

鑑於最近幾週的新聞頭條，我還想談另一個值得關注的問題，那就是關稅。我們的指引包括目前對從中國進口的商品徵收的關稅，在企業層面，我們從中國進口的商品不到我們銷售成本的5%。我們採取多種定價措施並與供應商分擔成本，以最大限度地減少影響。

Our guidance does not include potential tariffs that may be enacted on Mexico. We source approximately 20% to 25% of cost of goods sold from Mexico, primarily related to our residential business in the Americas. Should tariffs go into effect, we anticipate taking pricing actions to cover the higher costs and expect to offset the dollar impact at the operating income and earnings per share level.

我們的指導不包括可能對墨西哥徵收的潛在關稅。我們從墨西哥採購了大約 20% 至 25% 的銷售成本，主要與我們在美洲的住宅業務有關。如果關稅生效，我們預計將採取定價行動來彌補更高的成本，並有望在營業收入和每股盈餘水準上抵銷美元的影響。

Please go to slide 12. In summary, a Allegion delivered a record year in 2024, a year marked by consistent execution, solid margin expansion, and balanced capital deployment. These results are a testament to our team of highly engaged experts who, together with our distribution and channel partners, solve complex problems for our end user customers and work tirelessly to make the world safer.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。總而言之，Allegion 在 2024 年創造了創紀錄的一年，這一年的特點是執行力穩定、利潤率穩定上升以及資本配置均衡。這些結果證明了我們高度敬業的專家團隊的實力，他們與我們的分銷和通路合作夥伴一起，為我們的最終用戶客戶解決複雜的問題，並不懈努力地讓世界變得更安全。

We expect 2025 will be another opportunity to showcase the strength of this team. And with the consistency and discipline we have in investing for our future, a Allegion is primed for more growth.

我們期待 2025 年將是展現這支球隊實力的另一個機會。憑藉我們在投資未來方面的一致性和紀律性，Allegion 已準備好實現進一步成長。

With that we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Drew, we can open up the line for questions.

德魯，我們可以開通熱線來回答問題。

Drew, we can move to Q&A.

德魯，我們可以進入問答環節。

We got We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們得到了我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑弗瑞‧斯普拉格 (Jeffrey Sprague)，垂直研究。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and I guess the old adage, patience is a virtue still holds. I wonder if we could just address first just kind of the price/cost productivity investment equation I think that's the first time that's flipped negative maybe since you've reported it.

謝謝。大家早安，我想那句古老的格言「耐心是一種美德」仍然適用。我想知道我們是否可以先解決價格/成本生產力投資方程式的問題，我認為這可能是自您報告以來第一次出現負值。

Can you give us a little color on maybe just kind of headline price/cost or maybe what was going on in investment spending in the quarter to drive that change?

您能否向我們介紹一下整體價格/成本的情況，或是本季投資支出的哪些因素推動了這種變化？

Oh, the speaker line may be muted. You are live.

哦，揚聲器線路可能被靜音了。您仍在線。

Can you hear me? I'm not muted.

你聽得到我嗎？我沒有靜音。

I hear the question or I'm asking if the speaker line is muted from Allegion? Is your line muted?

我聽到了問題，或者我問的是揚聲器線路是否被 Allegion 靜音了？您的線路靜音了嗎？

Okay, ladies and gentlemen, it appears we are having difficulty with the speaker line. Please stand by one moment.

好的，女士們、先生們，看來我們的揚聲器線出了問題。請稍等一下。

Hello, this is the Allegion, are we audible?

您好，這裡是 Allegion，我們可以說話嗎？

Okay. Oh, hi, this is the operator. Go ahead and, would you like me to have the question or repeat the question? I can hear your line now.

好的。哦，您好，我是接線生。請說，你想讓我問這個問題或重複這個問題嗎？我現在能聽到你的聲音了。

You can put the question, Mike Wagnes is going to go ahead and answer. Thanks for the patience, everyone and thanks for the question, Jeff.

您可以提出問題，Mike Wagnes 將會回答。感謝大家的耐心，也感謝傑夫的提問。

Yeah, hey, Jeff, can you hear me?

是的，嘿，傑夫，你聽得到我說話嗎？

I got you loud and clear, Mike thanks. Perfect.

我清楚地明白你的意思，麥克，謝謝。完美的。

Sorry about that. So if you think about pricing in the quarter. It did step down like we shared in the prepared remarks, but that was a function of timing of our rebate accruals. It wasn't core pricing-driven. Core pricing was still decent. If you remember in 2023, our volume was more first half - first half loaded, right? And so, as we got through the end of '23, we took down those rebate of reserves. In '24, it was actually a positive development. Our volume accelerated in the back half of the year, and especially Q4, you saw the volume. So we had to make some adjustments to those accruals.

很抱歉。因此，如果你考慮本季的定價。正如我們在準備好的評論中所分享的那樣，它確實下降了，但這是我們的回扣累積時間的函數。它不是由核心定價所驅動的。核心定價依然合理。如果你還記得 2023 年的話，我們的交易量是上半年的一半，對嗎？因此，當我們到達23年底時，我們取消了這些儲備金的回扣。在24年，這實際上是一個積極的發展。我們的業務量在下半年加速成長，特別是第四季度，您看到了業務量的成長。因此我們必須對這些應計項目做出一些調整。

I think the key takeaway for me is pricing was still decent in the Americas, of course, led by non-residential, which was strong. And as we think about 2025, continue expect to see pricing and productivity in excess of inflation and investment on a dollar basis. So that equation that you're comfortable for the full year, we expect that dynamic to continue next year.

我認為對我來說關鍵的一點是美洲的定價仍然合理，當然，由非住宅市場主導，表現強勁。當我們展望2025年時，我們預期價格和生產力將繼續超過以美元計算的通貨膨脹和投資。因此，如果您對全年的情況感到滿意，我們預計這種動態明年將繼續下去。

Great, thanks for that. And John and thanks for the color on the Terrace, obviously on everyone's mind. I guess one other element is just the sourcing of steel or other metals, steel and aluminum, anything you could add there on, where you where you're sourcing for your US plants and if there's any particular risk that you've identified there.

太好了，謝謝。還有約翰，謝謝你為露台增添的色彩，顯然這已經引起了大家的注意。我想另一個因素是鋼鐵或其他金屬、鋼鐵和鋁的採購，以及您可以添加的任何東西，您從哪裡為美國工廠採購，以及您是否發現那裡有任何特殊風險。

Yeah, that's a good question. Jeff, on these steel and aluminum derivative tariffs, initial look through that, the impact is very small, doesn't even have two commas in it. We still got more analysis to do on that, but I'd say our non-residential business is largely sourced and produced in the United States, so we don't anticipate a big impact from those additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.

是的，這是個好問題。傑夫，關於這些鋼鐵和鋁衍生性商品關稅，初步看來，影響非常小，甚至沒有兩個逗號。我們還需要對此進行更多的分析，但我想說，我們的非住宅業務主要在美國採購和生產，因此我們預計對鋼鐵和鋁徵收額外的關稅不會產生重大影響。

Okay great thanks. I'll leave it there, much appreciated.

好的，非常感謝。我會把它留在那裡，非常感謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just the first question around the adjusted sort of operating margin that's embedded in the guide. So you had pretty good margin expansion most of last year. It sort of dried up a bit in the fourth-quarter, partly because of that price dynamic that you've discussed.

嗨，早安。也許只是關於指南中嵌入的調整後營業利潤率的第一個問題。因此，去年大部分時間你們的利潤率都成長得相當不錯。第四季度，這一趨勢有所減弱，部分原因是您之前討論過的價格動態。

For the full year '25, are we sort of assuming it's a few tens of basis points of margin expansion that's in the guide and is there any kind of Acceleration in there year on year in the back half versus the first half. Thank you.

對於 25 年全年，我們是否假設利潤率將擴大幾十個基點，這在指導範圍內，並且下半年與上半年相比是否有任何同比增長的加速。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Julian. If you look at the guide, right, we give EPS all the below the line items and then as you pick revenue you can back into the margin expansion. We do expect to have margin expansion in 2025. And as you think about the framework that we gave previously, the last two years, '23, '24, extremely strong, 230 basis points of margin expansion.

是的，謝謝你的提問，朱利安。如果你看一下指南，對的，我們給出 EPS 所有以下項目，然後當你選擇收入時，你可以回到利潤率擴張。我們確實預計 2025 年利潤率會擴大。正如您考慮我們之前給出的框架一樣，過去兩年，23 年、24 年表現極為強勁，利潤率擴大了 230 個基點。

If you think about 2025, that third year in that framework, I'd expect to be at the lower end of that framework we previous previously gave of the 50 basis points, to 100 basis points, and when you back into the implied guide you can kind of calculate that. With respect to timing, I would just, share, 2025 will look similar to 2024 from a normal seasonality as we progress throughout the year.

如果你考慮 2025 年，即該框架的第三年，我預計將處於我們之前給出的 50 個基點到 100 個基點的框架的低端，當你回到隱含指南時，你就可以計算出來。關於時間安排，我只想說，隨著全年的進展，從正常的季節性來看，2025 年將與 2024 年相似。

That's helpful, thank you. And then, just within the America's organic sales guidance for 2025, is it sort of embedding, residential up kind of low single digits, non-residential organic sales up, mid-single digits, and then, electronics, is that getting back on track for kind of decent growth in '25, I think it was down low single in '24.

這很有幫助，謝謝。然後，僅在美國 2025 年的有機銷售指導範圍內，它是否嵌入住宅增長低個位數，非住宅有機銷售額增長中等個位數，然後，電子產品是否在 25 年重回正軌，實現不錯的增長，我認為 24 年下降了個位數。

Yeah, we would expect non-residential to be the stronger of the two, as you would think from our prepared remarks. We don't give exact figures, resi versus non-resi, but you could think the non-residential being the stronger of the two.

是的，我們預計非住宅用地將成為兩者中較強的一方，正如您從我們準備好的評論中所想到的那樣。我們沒有給出住宅和非住宅的確切數字，但你可以認為非住宅是兩者中更強的。

And then for electronics, I think we're back to a normal comparison so you can expect to see electronics growth outpace the mechanical like we've shown in the past, so you could see electronics growth certainly be better than the overall America's growth.

然後對於電子產品而言，我認為我們回到了正常的比較，因此你可以預期看到電子產品的增長速度將超過機械增長，就像我們過去所展示的那樣，因此你可以看到電子產品的增長肯定會好於美國整體的增長。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Joe O’Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. On the margin commentary and, what's implied, and roughly 50 bps of year over year margin expansion, can you just touch on that kind of across the organization? Should we think about both segments seeing year over year margin expansion, maybe America's leading that, and then a little bit of corporate leverage on top of that?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。關於利潤率評論及其暗示，以及同比利潤率約 50 個基點的擴張，您能否談談整個組織的情況？我們是否應該認為這兩個部門的利潤率都會逐年擴大，或許美國處於領先地位，然後再在此基礎上增加一點企業槓桿？

Yeah, sure, thanks for the question, Joe. Obviously if you think about Allegion, the enterprise can't get there without the Americas, so we expect the Americas to have, stronger margin expansion. If you think about international though, we do expect to expand margins there this year. And then from a from a corporate every year we have just like a normal increase of a few percent for regular inflation, so you could take the actuals for the current 2024 so the past '24 and just increase it by a few percent for inflation.

是的，當然，謝謝你的提問，喬。顯然，如果你考慮 Allegion，你會發現如果沒有美洲市場，企業就無法實現這一目標，因此我們預期美洲市場的利潤率將進一步擴大。如果你考慮國際市場，我們確實預期今年的利潤率會有所擴大。然後從企業的角度來看，每年我們都會像正常通貨膨脹一樣增加幾個百分點，因此您可以採用當前 2024 年即過去 24 年的實際值，然後將其增加幾個百分點以滿足通貨膨脹的要求。

Got it. And then, just in terms of the international growth guidance in '25, can you touch on the China component to that, and what is embedded within that in in terms of any headwind as it relates to the exit there and timing around being done with those actions.

知道了。然後，就 25 年的國際成長指引而言，您能否談談其中的中國成分，以及其中存在的哪些不利因素，以及退出和完成這些行動的時間表？

I'll just share like we had in the prepared remarks, the revenue was only $5 million in '24, so if you think about a headwind for '25, it kind of sizes up that it's small.

我只是想分享我們在準備好的評論中所說的內容，24 年的收入只有 500 萬美元，所以如果你想想 25 年的逆風，你會發現它的影響很小。

Got it. Thanks very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Timothy Wojs, Baird.

提摩西‧沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Hey guys, good morning. Maybe just on the non-res business, you, it sounded like you in your prepared remarks were a little bit more confident or saw some things in the quarter that, you thought developed positively so maybe just talk a little bit about some of the quoting activity that you're seeing and I guess if you could kind of kind of thread that into, how do you get to kind of the upper end of the America's guide, for 2025 on the revenue side.

大家早安。也許只是就非房地產業務而言，您在準備好的發言中聽起來更有信心，或者看到了本季度的一些事情，您認為這些事情發展得很積極，所以也許可以談談您所看到的一些報價活動，我想如果您可以把它串聯起來，您如何在 2025 年的收入方面達到美國指南的上限。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Tim. I'd say the non-res side of the business in the Americas, did accelerate in 2024 a bit better than we had, originally contemplated. Volumes picked up a little bit like Mike talked about, and that's carried on into 2025. That momentum has carried on. I think our spec activity supports that view.

是的，謝謝你的提問，提姆。我想說，美洲非住宅業務在 2024 年的成長速度確實比我們最初預想的要好一些。正如麥克所說的那樣，交易量有所回升，而且這種情況將持續到 2025 年。這一勢頭一直持續著。我認為我們的規範活動支持這一觀點。

Other indicators like we showed on Dodge [starts] on the institutional side, the earliest of the early indicators, Dodge Momentum has been reading a little bit favorable, so just the project work that we're seeing on the commercial side, the sell through that our channel partners are sharing with us, the volume outlook just feels a bit better, than it has in recent months. So it's a good end to 2024 and a good start to 2025 on the commercial side of the business.

其他指標，例如我們在道奇上顯示的在機構方面[開始]，最早的早期指標，道奇動量一直讀得有點有利，所以我們在商業方面看到的項目工作，我們的渠道合作夥伴與我們分享的銷售情況，銷量前景感覺比最近幾個月要好一些。因此，從商業角度來看，這是 2024 年的一個良好結束，也是 2025 年的一個好開始。

Okay, and I guess what would you need to see, would it just be like this needs to continue, kind of through the year to get to the upper end? I'm just trying to kind of gauge what you kind of think about and kind of guard rails in terms of, what gets you the kind of the lower or the higher end of that that revenue guide in America.

好的，我想你想看到什麼呢？我只是想要了解你對美國收入指南的低端和高端有何看法和限制。

Yeah. Tim, we give an outlook there. It's a range. Clearly, we're only a month into the year, right? So let's see how this year progresses before we think about changing the upper end.

是的。提姆，我們在那裡給了一個展望。這是一個範圍。顯然，今年才剛過去一個月，對吧？因此，在我們考慮改變上限之前，讓我們先看看今年的進展如何。

I'd share with you on the residential side, obviously, we think that will not be as strong as the non-residential side. So obviously, if that is better than we anticipate that could help. But overall, that core institutional part of the business has remained stable for quite some time on the non-res side, and we expect that to continue.

我想和大家分享一下住宅方面的情況，顯然，我們認為這不會像非住宅方面那麼強勁。因此顯然，如果這比我們預期的要好，那可能會有所幫助。但總體而言，非住宅業務的核心機構部分在相當長一段時間內保持穩定，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

Okay. That's helpful. And then it sounds like you have a pretty healthy pipeline in terms of M&A deals. And I guess if you just kind of look through the filings, I mean, it does seem like the M&A that you've done kind of in 2024 is accretive to margins.

好的。這很有幫助。聽起來您在併購交易方面擁有相當健全的管道。我想，如果你只是看一下這些文件，你會發現，你在 2024 年進行的併購確實有助於增加利潤。

Is that a similar makeup to I guess, what's in the pipeline? Or is there a little bit more variance within the margin profile of potential deals?

我猜這和正在籌備中的化妝品類似嗎？或者潛在交易的利潤狀況是否有更多差異？

I think -- I appreciate the question. Tim. I think we can't speculate on deals we haven't done yet. But I would say the M&A environment is good. It's healthy. I think we have a lot of interesting targets, very high-quality targets in the pipeline today. Working hard on those. Will every single one be accretive to industry-leading margin business like Allegion? Maybe not.

我想——我很感謝這個問題。提姆。我認為我們不能對尚未完成的交易進行推測。但我想說的是，併購環境良好。它很健康。我認為我們目前正在籌備很多有趣的目標，非常高品質的目標。正在努力實現這些。每一個公司都會像 Allegion 一樣為業界領先的利潤業務帶來增值嗎？或許不是。

But I think don't lose sight of we will be disciplined on our acquisitions. But I do see -- if I was ended 2024 happy with our progress on M&A. I could see myself ending '25, very happy on M&A.

但我認為，不要忘記，我們會嚴格遵守收購規定。但我確實看到——如果我在 2024 年結束時對我們的併購進展感到滿意。我可以預見自己在 25 年結束時，對併購感到非常滿意。

Okay, sounds great thanks a lot for the time.

好的，聽起來很棒，非常感謝你抽出時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to come back to the organic sales outlook, the 1.5% to 3.5%, and really the non-res side of that. How are you thinking about commercial versus institutional, do you see growth in both those areas? And then is there anything to think about in terms of the phasing of that growth first half versus second half? Is it fairly level loaded year-over-year? Or is there some front-end or back-end weighting?

嗨，早安。謝謝。我想回到有機銷售前景，即 1.5% 到 3.5% 之間，以及非住宅方面。您如何看待商業與機構領域，您是否認為這兩個領域都有成長？那麼，對於上半年和下半年的成長階段，有什麼需要考慮的嗎？與去年同期相比，其負荷水準是否相當穩定？或者是否存在一些前端或後端權重？

Yeah. I'll address the phasing, and then John can talk to the vertical markets. With respect to the phasing kind of look to '24 as a more normal year. And so I wouldn't say that this is a back-end loaded year, vis-a-vis, what we just put on the board for 2024.

是的。我將討論分階段問題，然後約翰可以談談垂直市場。從分階段來看，2024 年將是一個更正常的年份。因此，相對於我們剛剛為 2024 年制定的計劃，我不會說這是一個後端負載的一年。

I think on the non-res side, as we showed a bit of a focus on the institutional verticals, education and health care, supported by very strong issuance of muni-bonds in 2024. That segment is still growing. That is where our Allegion's business is a bit more heavily weighted, so that's quite favorable for us.

我認為在非房地產方面，我們專注於機構垂直領域、教育和醫療保健，並得到 2024 年市政債券發行強勁的支持。該部分仍在增長。這就是我們的 Allegion 業務更重的地方，所以這對我們來說非常有利。

In the commercial verticals, still a mixed bag, I would say. Data centers, as everyone knows, is growing very rapidly. Allegion has a very good and very rapidly growing business there, supported by rapidly growing specification activity. On multi-family, obviously rather soft on the new construction side. On commercial office, major metro areas, again, this is mature, bad news.

我想說，在商業垂直領域，情況仍然是好壞參半。眾所周知，資料中心正在發展非常迅速。在快速成長的規範活動的支持下，Allegion 在那裡擁有非常好且非常快速的業務成長。就多戶住宅而言，新建築方面顯然相當疲軟。對於商業辦公和主要大都市地區來說，這又是一個壞消息。

Still a bit soft. But we're encouraged when we hear return-to-office mandates and things like this. So there are reasons to start to think about flirting with the bottom on those segments. And we'll just have to see, as Mike said, we'll have to see as the year progresses how those other verticals start to shape up.

還是有點軟。但當我們聽到返回辦公室的要求和諸如此類的事情時，我們感到很鼓舞。因此，我們有理由開始考慮觸及這些細分市場的底部。正如麥克所說，我們只需要觀察，隨著時間的推移，其他垂直產業將如何開始成形。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the tariffs, and this is specific to Mexico. You talked about some of the pricing mitigation actions. I'm just curious, what would the mechanics of price look like? Would these be normal list prices? Or would they be surcharges? Any color on the nature of that?

好的。偉大的。然後只是對關稅的後續問題，這是針對墨西哥的。您談到了一些降低價格的措施。我只是好奇，價格機制是什麼樣的？這些是正常的標價嗎？或者說這些是附加費？對此有什麼本質解釋嗎？

So I think we would have to evaluate once something gets implemented, Brett, I mean it's difficult to speculate on the unknown and just give you some hypothetical. So I would just summarize it with we would see ourselves implementing pricing actions. There could be a mix of pricing actions be able to offset the dollar impact on the operating income and earnings per share line. I think that's the best we can give you at this point because, again, we're -- it's just hypothetical at this point.

因此我認為，一旦某件事得以實施，我們就必須進行評估，布雷特，我的意思是，很難對未知的事情進行推測，只能給你一些假設。因此，我只想總結一下，我們將看到自己實施定價行動。可以採取多種定價行動來抵銷美元對營業收入和每股盈餘的影響。我認為這是我們目前可以給你的最好的答案，因為，再說一次，這只是假設。

Appreciate the detail.

欣賞細節。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I wanted to ask about the Q4 tariff pull-forward. I think you said mid-single digit millions for Americas and resi, if I heard that right. So maybe like 2% to 3% kind of tailwind in the quarter, if my math is right. I guess the question, one, how do you size that? How can you kind of pinpoint that number?

謝謝。我想問一下第四季關稅提前的問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，我想您說的是美洲和住宅市場規模在幾百萬左右。因此，如果我的計算正確的話，本季的順風可能會達到 2% 到 3%。我想問題是，第一，你如何確定其尺寸？您要怎麼確定這個數字呢？

And then the second is the expectation that this tariff prebuy continues into Q1? Are you seeing that here kind of halfway through the quarter?

然後第二個問題是，預計這種關稅預購會持續到第一季嗎？您是否在本季度中期看到了這種情況？

Thanks for the question, Chris. If you think about our residential business, we grew at the high single digits, and that was frankly more than you would expect based on underlying market demand. So our best estimate is, hey, there's about mid-single digit millions. So if you back that out, you're looking at maybe a low to mid type growth for resi.

謝謝你的提問，克里斯。如果你考慮我們的住宅業務，我們以高個位數成長，坦白說，這超出了你根據潛在市場需求所預期的範圍。因此，我們的最佳估計是，大約有幾百萬。因此，如果您放棄這個想法，您可能會看到房地產出現低到中等的增長。

It's not precise. It's an estimate that we have knowing that our channel partners in the residential business tend to be pretty large companies who place larger size orders because it's more concentrated than on the non-res side. I think for me, the more important thing is we didn't see this in non-residential, where John talked about how we ended strong.

這並不準確。我們知道，住宅業務的通路合作夥伴往往是相當大、下訂單規模較大的公司，因為住宅業務比非住宅業務更集中，所以這是一個估計。我認為對我來說，更重要的是我們沒有在非住宅領域看到這種情況，約翰在那裡談到了我們如何強勢收場。

With respect to Q1, I would expect that mid-single-digit millions to be a headwind to resi. But if you think about total Americas, that's not very big. So when you model it, just know that that's coming from Q1 into the fourth quarter of '24. But I wouldn't expect further pull ahead.

就第一季而言，我預計中等個位數的銷售額將成為阻力。但如果你考慮整個美洲，這個數字就不算大了。因此，當您對其進行建模時，只需知道這是從 2024 年第一季到第四季度發生的事情。但我並不期望有進一步的領先。

I appreciate that. And then I also appreciate all the color and the communication around the institutional business. I guess anything maybe that you could flag around the government exposure institutional. I know education and health care are the largest verticals. But obviously, just a lot of uncertainty out there on government buildings with headlines of layoffs, et cetera. Thank you.

我很感激。我也很欣賞圍繞機構業務的所有色彩和溝通。我想，您也許可以標記出與政府風險機構相關的任何內容。我知道教育和醫療保健是最大的垂直產業。但顯然，政府大樓充斥著許多不確定性因素，包括裁員等消息。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a timely question and a fair one. I would say the majority of the project work that we see out there is coming from local funding sources, right, municipal bonds, local property taxes, that's what funds, K-12 schools, as an example, rather than federal monies out of Washington.

是的，這是一個及時且公平的問題。我想說的是，我們看到的大部分專案工作都來自當地資金來源，例如市政債券、地方財產稅（這就是 K-12 學校的資金來源），而不是華盛頓的聯邦資金。

So fair to ask the question. I would just say the majority of our end user customers are a little bit insulated from that because it's more local funding sources, property taxes, muni-bonds, things like that.

提出這個問題很公平。我只想說，我們的大多數最終用戶客戶對此都不太敏感，因為更多的是本地資金來源、財產稅、市政債券等。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, we will conclude the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to John Stone, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

現在，我們將結束問答環節。我想將會議交還給總裁兼執行長約翰·斯通 (John Stone)，請他作最後發言。

So thanks, everyone, again, for joining the call. I'm very proud of the year that the Allegion team and our distribution channel partners put on the board for 2024, and very excited to see us navigate our way through what should be a very favorable 2025. Thank you.

再次感謝大家參加此次電話會議。我為 Allegion 團隊和我們的通路合作夥伴為 2024 年制定的計劃感到非常自豪，並且非常高興看到我們順利度過 2025 年，這應該是非常有利的一年。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。