安朗杰 (ALLE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Allegion first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Pokrzywinski, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Allegion 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Josh Pokrzywinski。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Allegion's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allegion. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and the presentation, which we will refer to in today's call, are available on our website at investor.allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website. Please go to slide 2.

謝謝你，傑森。大家早安。感謝您參加 Allegion 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的還有總裁兼首席執行官約翰·斯通 (John Stone)；以及 Allegion 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Wagnes。我們的收益報告（已於今天早上發布）以及我們將在今天的電話會議上提及的簡報均可在我們的網站 investor.allegion.com 上查閱。本次通話將被記錄並存檔在我們的網站上。請翻到投影片 2。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details.

今天電話會議中所作的非歷史事實的陳述被視為根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款所作的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的一些因素的描述。該公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的演示和評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的財務表中的對帳以了解更多詳情。

Please go to slide 3 and I'll turn the call over to John.

請翻到投影片 3，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us. Q1 was a strong start to our year, and I am proud of the execution of the Allegion team. and grateful for the long-standing partnership with the finest distribution channel partners in the industry. This was another demonstration of the resilience of our business model as we expanded our industry-leading margins and continued to invest in our business while returning capital to shareholders.

謝謝，喬希。大家早安，感謝大家的參與。第一季是我們今年的一個好開端，我為 Allegion 團隊的表現感到自豪。並感謝與業界最優秀的通路合作夥伴建立的長期合作關係。這再次證明了我們商業模式的韌性，我們擴大了業界領先的利潤率，並在向股東返還資本的同時繼續投資於我們的業務。

I'm pleased with the top line growth in Q1, especially in the Americas, driven by the nonresidential business. Over the past year, the Americas team produced mid-single-digit growth and solid margin expansion which we believe speaks to the resiliency of the model, our broad end market exposure and the depth of our relationships with channel partners and end users. We continue to take advantage of our business as strong cash generation, returning cash to shareholders and growing through accretive acquisitions.

我對第一季的營收成長感到滿意，尤其是在美洲，這得益於非住宅業務的成長。在過去的一年裡，美洲團隊實現了中等個位數的成長和穩健的利潤率擴張，我們認為這體現了該模式的彈性、我們廣泛的終端市場曝光度以及我們與通路合作夥伴和終端用戶關係的深度。我們繼續利用我們業務的強大現金產生能力，向股東返還現金，並透過增值收購實現成長。

Our consistent cash flow and pipeline of opportunities positions us well for additional capital deployment that creates long-term value for our shareholders and drive performance through the cycle. We're exiting Q1 with solid momentum, and we're executing our long-term growth strategy while remaining agile. We are affirming our 2025 full year outlook for adjusted earnings per share of $7.65 to $7.85 and I'll be back later to provide more color on our markets and outlook. Please go to slide 4.

我們穩定的現金流和眾多機會使我們能夠很好地進行額外的資本部署，從而為股東創造長期價值並在整個週期內推動業績。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了第一季度，我們正在執行我們的長期成長策略，同時保持敏捷。我們確認 2025 年全年調整後每股收益為 7.65 美元至 7.85 美元，稍後我會回來提供有關我們的市場和前景的更多詳情。請翻到幻燈片 4。

Let's take a look at capital allocation for the first quarter, starting with investments for organic growth. As you may have seen from our Consumer Electronics Show announcements earlier this year, Schlage recently unveiled its first ultra-wideband solution, the Schlage Sense Pro Smart Deadbolt is set to transform home access, delivering a hands-free unlocking experience that combines ultimate convenience with trusted security for homeowners. Paired with a personal phone is ultra-wideband technology can understand intent to enter and unlock a door for an authorized user precisely as they approach it.

讓我們來看看第一季的資本配置情況，從有機成長投資開始。正如您可能從我們今年早些時候的消費電子展公告中看到的那樣，Schlage 最近推出了其首款超寬頻解決方案 Schlage Sense Pro Smart Deadbolt，該解決方案將改變家庭門禁系統，為房主提供將極致便利與值得信賴的安全性相結合的免提解鎖體驗。與個人電話配對的超寬頻技術可以準確地理解授權使用者進入門的意圖，並在授權使用者接近門時為其解鎖。

The Schlage Sense Pro will also allow homeowners to voice control the lock and set up automated routines via smart home platforms and devices. We are set to release the Schlage Arrive Smart WiFi Deadbolt, our first push button keypad dead bolt equipped with built-in WiFi. It provides a simple and secure connected solution that is an easy upgrade for first-time smart lock users and those looking to add smart security to more doors throughout their home at a more affordable price point.

Schlage Sense Pro 還允許房主透過語音控制鎖並透過智慧家庭平台和設備設定自動化程序。我們即將推出 Schlage Arrive Smart WiFi Deadbolt，這是我們第一款配備內建 WiFi 的按鈕鍵盤鎖舌。它提供了一種簡單、安全的連接解決方案，對於首次使用智慧鎖的用戶以及希望以更實惠的價格為家中更多門添加智慧安全功能的用戶來說，這是一種輕鬆的升級方式。

Both of these innovative new offerings complement our leading Schlage and code family of smart locks and are also backed by the Schlage name, which just earned the title of America's most listed lock brand for the sixth year in a row, since Pro and Arrive are expected to hit US markets later this year. Turning to M&A. Allegion has closed three bolt-on acquisitions since the start of 2025. In the Americas, we acquired the Next Door Company in February, growing our specialty door solutions to include new custom configurations for industrial, commercial and institutional buildings.

這兩款創新產品是對該公司領先的 Schlage 和 Code 系列智慧鎖的補充，並且均由 Schlage 品牌提供支援。 Schlage 品牌連續第六年榮獲美國上榜率最高的鎖具品牌稱號，Pro 和 Arrive 預計將於今年稍晚登陸美國市場。轉向併購。自 2025 年初以來，Allegion 已完成三次附加收購。在美洲，我們在二月收購了 Next Door Company，擴大了我們的專業門解決方案，包括針對工業、商業和機構建築的全新定製配置。

In Allegion International, we acquired Lemaar, expanding our security and accessibility solutions in Australia. Lemaar offers door entry systems, handles and digital locks for residential and multifamily markets and its channels and go-to-market approach complement our own offering new opportunities to scale.

在 Allegion International，我們收購了 Lemaar，擴展了我們在澳洲的安全和無障礙解決方案。Lemaar 為住宅和多戶住宅市場提供門禁系統、把手和數位鎖，其通路和市場進入方式與我們自身的產品相輔相成，提供了新的擴展機會。

On April 1, we acquired Trimco, which bolsters our nonresidential Americas portfolio with premium and patented door hardware solutions that are highly specifiable, ranging from architectural poles to mechanical locks, latches and strikes. We see continued opportunities to grow inorganically this year as our pipeline remains active with companies that align to our core and can leverage our channel strengths.

4 月 1 日，我們收購了 Trimco，該公司透過優質且獲得專利的門硬體解決方案增強了我們在美洲的非住宅產品組合，這些解決方案具有高度可指定性，包括建築桿到機械鎖、閂鎖和鎖扣。由於我們與符合我們核心業務並能利用我們通路優勢的公司保持著活躍的關係，因此我們今年仍有機會實現無機成長。

As you heard from us on the call in February, Allegion continues to be a dividend-paying stock. We announced our 11th consecutive increase to our dividend at the beginning of the year. And in Q1, this dividend amounted to approximately $44 million. Lastly, we made share repurchases in the quarter of approximately $40 million. We remain committed to balance consistent capital allocation with a clear priority of investing for growth. I look forward to updating you as we progress through 2025.

正如您在二月的電話會議上聽到的那樣，Allegion 繼續是一隻派息股票。我們在年初宣布連續第 11 次增加股利。而在第一季度，該股息總額約為 4,400 萬美元。最後，我們在本季回購了約 4,000 萬美元的股票。我們仍然致力於平衡持續的資本配置與明確的成長投資優先。我期待在 2025 年到來之際向您通報最新進展。

Mike will now walk you through first quarter financial results.

麥克現在將向您介紹第一季的財務表現。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Please go to slide number 5. As John shared, our Q1 results reflect strong execution from the Allegion team, delivering another quarter of margin expansion with mid-single-digit top line growth. Revenue for the first quarter was $941.9 million, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2024.

謝謝，約翰，大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。請翻到第 5 張投影片。正如約翰所分享的，我們的第一季業績反映了 Allegion 團隊的強勁執行力，實現了利潤率的又一個季度擴大和中等個位數的營收成長。第一季營收為 9.419 億美元，較 2024 年成長 5.4%。

Organic revenue increased 4% in the quarter as a result of favorable price and volume led by our nonresidential business in the Americas. Q1 adjusted operating margin increased by 150 basis points as volume leverage, favorable mix and acquisitions were accretive to margins. Pricing productivity net of inflation and investments and inclusive of transactional FX was a slight margin tailwind in the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 increased $0.31 or 20% versus the prior year.

由於美洲非住宅業務帶動的價格和銷量有利，本季有機收入成長了 4%。由於銷售槓桿、有利的產品組合和收購增加了利潤率，第一季調整後的營業利潤率增加了 150 個基點。扣除通貨膨脹和投資並包含交易外匯的定價生產力在本季度帶來了輕微的利潤順風。調整後每股收益為 1.86 美元，較前一年增加 0.31 美元，即 20%。

Operational performance, favorable tax and accretive capital deployment more than offset a slight headwind from interest and other. Our Q1 tax rate benefited from discrete items that historically occur in the back half of the year. We still anticipate the full year tax rate to be in the range of 17% to 18% with the first half rate being similar to the second half rate.

經營業績、優惠的稅收和增值的資本配置足以抵銷利息和其他方面的輕微阻力。我們第一季的稅率受益於歷史上下半年出現的離散項目。我們仍預期全年稅率將在 17% 至 18% 之間，上半年稅率與下半年稅率相似。

Finally, year to date available cash flow was $83.4 million, which was up nearly 250% versus last year. We continue to effectively manage working capital and generate strong cash flow. I will provide more details on our balance sheet and cash flow a little later in the presentation. Please go to slide number 6.

最後，年初至今可用現金流為 8,340 萬美元，比去年增長近 250%。我們繼續有效管理營運資金並產生強勁的現金流。我將在稍後的演示中提供有關我們的資產負債表和現金流的更多詳細資訊。請翻到第 6 張投影片。

This slide provides an overview of our quarterly revenue. I will review our enterprise results here before turning to our respective regions. Organic revenue grew 4% in the quarter, which included volume growth of 2.9% and price realization of 1.1%. Acquisitions drove 2.2 points of growth in the quarter, primarily related to businesses we acquired in 2024. Currency was a headwind in Q1 of 0.8 point, bringing the total reported growth to 5.4%. Please go to slide number 7.

這張投影片概述了我們的季度收入。在轉向各自的區域之前，我將在這裡回顧一下我們的企業表現。本季有機收入成長 4%，其中銷量成長 2.9%，價格成長 1.1%。收購推動本季成長 2.2 個百分點，主要與我們在 2024 年收購的業務有關。第一季貨幣出現 0.8 點的逆風，導致整體成長率達到 5.4%。請翻到第 7 張投影片。

Our Americas segment delivered strong operating results in Q1. Revenue of $757.8 million was up 6.8% on a reported basis and up 4.9% on an organic basis. Organic growth included both favorable price and volume in the quarter. Reported revenue includes 2.3 points of growth from acquisitions and a slight currency headwind. Pricing in our Americas business was 1.1% in the quarter. The company has taken multiple price increases and surcharges beginning at the end of February and continuing into April and as a result, we expect price realization to accelerate through the year.

我們的美洲分部在第一季取得了強勁的經營業績。營收為 7.578 億美元，以報告基礎計算成長 6.8%，以有機基礎計算成長 4.9%。有機成長包括本季有利的價格和銷量。報告的收入包括來自收購的 2.3 個百分點的成長和輕微的貨幣逆風。本季度，美洲業務的定價為 1.1%。該公司從 2 月底開始並持續到 4 月多次提高價格和附加費，因此，我們預計全年價格實現將會加速。

Our nonresidential business increased high single digits organically as demand for our products remains healthy. Our residential business declined mid-single digits in the quarter. As we previously mentioned on our year-end 2024 earnings call, we did expect Q1 to be impacted by some pull ahead of purchases by customers into Q4 last year. Electronics revenue was up low double digits and continues to be a long-term growth driver for Allegion.

由於我們產品的需求保持健康，我們的非住宅業務有機增長了高個位數。本季我們的住宅業務下降了中等個位數。正如我們之前在 2024 年年終收益電話會議上提到的那樣，我們確實預計第一季會受到去年第四季客戶購買量提前的影響。電子產品收入實現了兩位數的低成長，並繼續成為 Allegion 的長期成長動力。

Americas adjusted operating income of $220.9 million increased 12% versus the prior year. Adjusted operating margin was up 130 basis points. as favorable volume leverage and mix were accretive to margins. Price and productivity net of inflation and investments and inclusive of transactional FX were neutral to margin rates. The tailwind from transactional FX is primarily related to our Mexican operations, where a portion of our local costs were favorably impacted by the year-over-year decline in the peso compared to the US dollar. Please go to slide number 9.

美洲調整後營業收入為 2.209 億美元，較上年增長 12%。調整後的營業利益率上升了130個基點。因為有利的銷售槓桿和產品組合增加了利潤率。扣除通貨膨脹和投資並包含交易外匯的價格和生產力對保證金率來說是中性的。交易外匯帶來的順風主要與我們的墨西哥業務有關，我們的部分當地成本受到比索兌美元年減的有利影響。請翻到第 9 張投影片。

Our International segment delivered revenues of $184.1 million, which was down 0.3% on a reported basis and up 0.9% organically. Acquisitions were a tailwind this quarter, positively impacting reported revenues by 1.8%. Currency was a headwind in the quarter, negatively impacted reported revenues by 3%. International adjusted operating income of $18.8 million decreased 2.6% versus the prior year period.

我們的國際部門實現了 1.841 億美元的收入，按報告基礎計算下降 0.3%，有機成長 0.9%。本季度收購是順風，對報告收入產生了 1.8% 的正面影響。貨幣是本季的一大阻力，對報告收入產生了 3% 的負面影響。國際調整後營業收入為 1,880 萬美元，較去年同期下降 2.6%。

Adjusted operating margins for the quarter decreased 20 basis points as we had a slight headwind from price and productivity net of inflation and investments. Please go to slide number 9. And I will provide an overview of our cash flow and balance sheet.

由於扣除通貨膨脹和投資後的價格和生產力略有下降，本季調整後的營業利潤率下降了 20 個基點。請翻到第 9 張投影片。我將概述我們的現金流和資產負債表。

First quarter available cash flow was approximately $83 million, up $59.5 million versus the prior year. This increase is driven by higher earnings, lower capital expenditures and improvements in working capital. I'm pleased with the strong start to the year. And we continue to expect available cash flow conversion to be 85% to 90% of adjusted net income for the full year.

第一季可用現金流約 8,300 萬美元，比上年增加 5,950 萬美元。這一成長是由更高的收益、更低的資本支出和營運資本的改善所推動的。我對今年的良好開局感到高興。我們繼續預期可用現金流轉換率將達到全年調整後淨收入的 85% 至 90%。

Next, working capital as a percent of revenue improved primarily due to increased inventory turns as we continue to focus on working capital efficiency to convert earnings to cash. Finally, our balance sheet remains strong, and our net debt to adjusted EBITDA is at a healthy ratio of 1.6 times. Our business continues to generate strong cash flow, and our balance sheet supports continued capital deployment.

其次，營運資本佔收入的百分比有所提高，這主要是由於庫存週轉率的提高，因為我們繼續關注營運資本效率以將收益轉化為現金。最後，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的比率處於 1.6 倍的健康水準。我們的業務持續產生強勁的現金流，我們的資產負債表支援持續的資本部署。

I will now hand the call back over to John.

我現在將把電話交還給約翰。

Thanks, Mike. Please go to slide 10. We are reiterating the 2025 outlook we introduced last quarter as we still see the same fundamental outlook led by our nonresidential business in the Americas region. Nonresidential markets, particularly the institutional verticals remain resilient. The late cycle nature of our business, along with our backlog and specification activity continue to support our outlook.

謝謝，麥克。請翻到第 10 張投影片。我們重申上個季度提出的 2025 年展望，因為我們仍然看到由美洲地區的非住宅業務引領的基本前景相同。非住宅市場，特別是機構垂直市場仍保持彈性。我們的業務處於後期週期，加上我們的積壓訂單和規範活動繼續支持我們的前景。

As Mike noted, we did expect some residential softness following the stronger Q4 and see markets remaining soft given uncertainty on tariffs and interest rates. As we said in the past, our Americas sourcing practices are largely in region, while our Americas residential business primarily produces and sources in Mexico, the vast majority of these products are USMCA compliant.

正如麥克所指出的，我們確實預計在第四季度經濟表現強勁之後，住宅市場會出現一些疲軟，而且由於關稅和利率的不確定性，市場仍將保持疲軟。正如我們過去所說，我們在美洲的採購業務主要在地區內進行，而我們的美洲住宅業務主要在墨西哥生產和採購，其中絕大多數產品都符合 USMCA 標準。

Americas sourcing from outside North America is relatively small with China at less than 5% of COGS and a collection of smaller exposures from all other countries cumulatively at 5% to 10% of enterprise COGS. Our company estimates tariff costs of approximately $80 million in 2025. And we expect to offset tariffs at the operating profit and EPS level on a full year basis, primarily through pricing actions. Accordingly, our 2025 full year EPS outlook includes the impact from tariffs enacted as of April 22 of this year.

美洲從北美以外的採購量相對較小，其中中國採購量佔 COGS 的不到 5%，而從其他國家採購的量較小，累計佔企業 COGS 的 5% 至 10%。我們公司估計2025年的關稅成本約為8000萬美元。我們預計，主要透過定價行動，全年營業利潤和每股盈餘將抵消關稅影響。因此，我們對 2025 年全年每股收益的預測包括了今年 4 月 22 日實施的關稅的影響。

Given recent volatility in tariffs and foreign exchange rates, we're not updating our revenue outlook for those assumptions. However, we see potential upside to our revenue outlook if current tariff-related pricing actions and foreign exchange rates persist. Please go to slide 11.

鑑於近期關稅和外匯匯率的波動，我們不會根據這些假設更新我們的收入前景。然而，如果當前與關稅相關的定價行動和外匯匯率持續下去，我們認為我們的收入前景可能會上升。請翻到第 11 張投影片。

In summary, Allegion is off to a strong start in 2025. I'm proud of our team's execution as we remain agile in a very dynamic environment. Notably, we were honored in the quarter with the Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award for the second consecutive year. Our leaders and our team of highly engaged experts to drive our culture forward creating a solid foundation to deliver exceptional results for our customers and our shareholders. Our people are a key differentiator for this company.

總而言之，Allegion 在 2025 年取得了良好的開端。我為我們團隊的執行力感到自豪，因為我們在非常動態的環境中保持敏捷。值得注意的是，本季我們連續第二年榮獲蓋洛普傑出工作場所獎。我們的領導者和高度敬業的專家團隊推動我們的文化向前發展，為我們的客戶和股東創造卓越的績效奠定了堅實的基礎。我們的員工是這家公司的關鍵差異化因素。

As we move into Q2, we see positive internal indicators in the Americas nonresidential business, and we will remain agile, should conditions change. One final note, Allegion has an upcoming Investor and Analyst Day in New York to share more on our growth strategy. If you're interested in attending our May 6 event, please contact Josh or Joby to register as soon as possible.

隨著進入第二季度，我們看到美洲非住宅業務的內部指標呈現積極態勢，如果情況發生變化，我們將保持靈活。最後需要說明的是，Allegion 即將在紐約舉辦投資者和分析師日活動，以分享更多有關我們的成長策略的資訊。如果您有興趣參加我們 5 月 6 日的活動，請盡快聯絡 Josh 或 Joby 進行註冊。

With that, we'll take your questions.

我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, good morning, guys. So I guess I'll start with the tariff question. So thank you for giving all the details. Great that included in your guidance for the year. I was just wondering, as you kind of think about the progression of those tariffs and the surcharges that you mentioned, is there any kind of mismatch we should be thinking about where either you're putting through pricing ahead of some of the tariff impact or vice versa? Just anything around those dynamics would be very helpful.

嘿，大家早安。所以我想我將從關稅問題開始。感謝您提供所有詳細資訊。非常好，這包含在您今年的指導中。我只是想知道，當您考慮您提到的這些關稅和附加費的進度時，是否存在我們應該考慮的不匹配之處，要么您在定價之前考慮一些關稅影響，反之亦然？任何與這些動態相關的事情都會非常有幫助。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Joe. As you know, the tariffs went into effect, the largest ones early April, and they were effective immediately. We took actions in the month of April. Those were announced and in the marketplace.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬。如您所知，這些關稅已於 4 月初生效，其中最高關稅是立即生效的。我們在四月採取了行動。這些產品均已公佈並上市。

We announced them earlier this week, and they're effective here in April, at the end of April. You can consider -- if you think about a lag, you could see a month-ish of a lag between the tariff impacts, which were immediate and our pricing actions. We still expect for the full year and this is the important thing. For a full year, we'll cover those costs of the tariffs.

我們本週稍早宣布了這些措施，這些措施將於四月，也就是四月底生效。你可以考慮——如果你考慮滯後，你可能會看到關稅影響（這是直接的）和我們的定價行動之間存在一個月左右的滯後。我們仍然對全年抱持期待，這是最重要的事。全年而言，我們將承擔這些關稅費用。

But as you think about the second quarter, there could be a little headwind. We talked about that month-ish of that lag. So as you think about this for the year, think of it as neutral, but I think the second quarter could have that month impact.

但當你想到第二季時，可能會遇到一些阻力。我們討論了那個滯後的一個月左右的時間。因此，當您考慮今年的情況時，請將其視為中性，但我認為第二季可能會對這個月產生影響。

Okay. Great. That's helpful, Mike. And I guess just the follow-on to just the tariff discussion. If, in fact, something changes and I think things are changing by the day, how do we then think about the pricing actions that you're taking? And do they just immediately come off? Like how are you guys thinking about that dynamic as well?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助，麥克。我想這只是關稅討論的後續內容。如果事實上發生了一些變化，而且我認為情況每天都在變化，那麼我們該如何考慮您採取的定價行動？它們會立即脫落嗎？你們對於這種動態有什麼看法？

Yes. Joe, this is John. I think that's on everyone's mind. And given the volatility, just like Mike mentioned, we take our time to analyze each one of these enacted tariffs. It's a lot of detail and a lot of information to sift through. And so we'll remain agile, and we stay committed to affirming the full year guide that we just shared with you. That's the best way to think about it. It's anybody's guess on which way things go from here, but we'll remain agile as we have so far and remain committed to covering any cost at the OI and the EPS level.

是的。喬，這是約翰。我想這是每個人都想到的。考慮到波動性，正如麥克所提到的，我們會花時間分析每一項已頒布的關稅。需要篩選大量的細節和資訊。因此，我們將保持敏捷，並繼續致力於確認我們剛剛與您分享的全年指南。這是思考這個問題的最好方式。任何人都無法猜測事情接下來會如何發展，但我們將一如既往地保持靈活，並繼續致力於承擔 OI 和 EPS 級別的任何成本。

That's great, John. If I could just sneak one more in, just on non-res. Great to see the growth this quarter. You did call out that there was potentially a pull ahead in the fourth quarter. I just -- I'm wondering, like was there -- could you guys determine whether there was any kind of like pull ahead in 1Q as well just from like the fact that these tariffs were going into place, and so maybe there were some orders that replaced? I'm just trying to understand like how you felt about the growth that you saw this quarter and the outlook going forward?

太好了，約翰。如果我可以再偷偷地放進去一個，只是在非 res 上。很高興看到本季的成長。你確實說過第四節有可能領先。我只是——我想知道，你們能否確定，由於這些關稅即將實施，第一季是否也出現了類似的拉動，因此是否有一些訂單被取代？我只是想了解您對本季的成長以及未來前景有何感受？

Yes. Joe, let me wind the clock back. The Q4 comment was specific to residential, non-res. And the dynamics there with the customer concentration on the residential side and we watch their ordering behavior very closely. It was our own speculation that there was probably a mid-single-digit million pull ahead in Q4 on the resi side.

是的。喬，讓我把時鐘倒轉。Q4 的評論具體針對住宅、非住宅。我們密切關注住宅客戶集中度的動態以及他們的訂購行為。我們自己推測，第四季住宅銷售可能會出現數千萬的中段成長。

Non-res is a book and ship business with pretty short lead times. We've been watching like hawks to see evidence of pulled. The whole industry does typically an annual price increase right around the first of March. So do some people get some orders in before the price increase? Yeah, of course, that happens every single year but we're watching very carefully on the non-res side, and we just don't see a lot of evidence for any large pull ahead at this point.

Non-res 是一種圖書和船舶業務，交貨時間相當短。我們一直在密切關注，尋找被拉扯的證據。整個產業通常會在每年三月一日左右進行年度價格上漲。那麼，在漲價之前，有人會下訂單嗎？是的，當然，這種情況每年都會發生，但我們正在非常仔細地觀察非房地產方面，我們目前還沒有看到任何大幅上漲的證據。

Okay, great. Thanks, guys.

好的，太好了。謝謝大家。

Tim Wojs, Baird.

提姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Hey, everybody. Good morning. Thanks for the time and the details. Maybe just kind of the first question, just on the institutional side. Have you seen any sort of changes in how certain verticals as an institutional, call it, health care, government, those types of areas have kind of changed CapEx priorities or kind of thought about kind of funding just given some of the commentary coming out of Washington in those areas?

嘿，大家好。早安.感謝您抽出時間和提供詳細資訊。也許這只是第一個問題，只是關於制度方面的問題。您是否看到某些垂直行業（例如機構、醫療保健、政府等）發生了某種變化，這些領域的資本支出優先事項發生了某種變化，或者考慮到華盛頓對這些領域的一些評論，對資金類型的思考發生了某種變化？

Yeah. I think Tim, it's important -- it's a good question. And I think it's important to remember, doors, frames, locks, door hardware, this is late-cycle business. Once a project starts, it tends to finish. And so I'd say that -- those verticals, health care and education have still been growing.

是的。我認為蒂姆，這很重要——這是一個好問題。我認為需要記住的是，門、門框、鎖、門五金都是後期週期業務。一旦專案開始，它往往要完成。所以我想說，醫療保健和教育等垂直產業仍在成長。

They've been resilient. We still see that. And again, I think the late cycle nature of our business continues to support our outlook. If you look back to 2024, particularly for the education vertical, new issuances of municipal bonds was at a record high, very strong growth. Those bonds now take a couple of years. Honestly to work their way through shovel-ready projects and things. So I think that -- those bonds tend to have a pretty long tail.

他們一直很堅韌。我們仍然看到這種情況。而且我認為，我們業務的後期週期性質繼續支持我們的前景。如果回顧 2024 年，特別是教育垂直領域，市政債券的新發行量創歷史新高，成長非常強勁。這些債券現在需要幾年的時間。誠實地完成準備就緒的項目和事情。所以我認為——這些債券往往具有相當長的尾部效應。

And again, I think we can't just react to every single headline that pops up day to day. And again, I would highlight what we see in the non-res space right now, again, the institutional verticals are resilient. The aftermarket is very resilient. And I'm proud of our performance in the aftermarket. I think we have been gaining some share there just with better performance and a better product portfolio. So that's what's all coming together from our view to reinforce the guide this year.

我再說一次，我認為我們不能僅僅對每天出現的每一個頭條新聞做出反應。再次強調，我們目前在非房地產領域看到的情況是，機構垂直產業具有彈性。售後市場非常有彈性。我為我們在售後市場的表現感到自豪。我認為我們憑藉更好的性能和更好的產品組合在那裡獲得了一些份額。所以從我們的角度來看，所有這些都是為了強化今年的指南。

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks a lot for that. And then just on the tariffs, if you kind of look at your kind of China and, I guess, other country kind of sourcing, how would you think you frame up relative to your competitors? I'm just curious if you're kind of on the lower end relative to your peers, if you're kind of on the higher end in the middle, kind of how would you kind of assess your relative kind of supply chain versus your competitors here in the US?

好的。這很有幫助。非常感謝。然後就關稅而言，如果你看一下中國和其他國家的採購情況，你認為你與競爭對手相比處於什麼位置？我只是好奇，如果您相對於同行處於較低端，或者處於中間較高端，那麼您如何評估您與美國競爭對手的供應鏈相對水平？

Yeah. For sure, I don't know. I'm not the guy to speak to their supply chains. But I would say, in general, what we see on the residential side is, by and large, the industry imports. That's from a range of countries. We import from Mexico, vast majority under USMCA compliant products.

是的。當然，我不知道。我不是負責談論其供應鏈的人。但我想說，總的來說，我們在住宅方面看到的基本上是行業進口。這些來自不同國家。我們從墨西哥進口，絕大多數產品符合 USMCA 規定。

We have been reducing our China exposure with the investment of the new plant in, Mexico that we've talked about probably for the last two years now. And so that's kind of automatically continuing to reduce China and build up a better supply chain there and Queretaro.

我們一直在減少在中國的業務，並在墨西哥投資新工廠，我們大概在過去兩年裡一直在談論這個話題。因此，這會自動繼續減少對中國的依賴，並在那裡和克雷塔羅建立更好的供應鏈。

On the non-res side, I'd say our impression is our largest competitor probably has a footprint pretty close to ours. And generally, you make and source in region. Some of the smaller competitors on the non-res side, I could surmise they're a bit more import heavy than we are. But that's just a guess. I don't know for sure.

在非房地產方面，我想說我們的印像是，我們最大的競爭對手的足跡可能與我們非常接近。一般來說，你是在該地區生產和採購。我可以推測，非住宅領域的一些較小的競爭對手的進口量比我們更大一些。但這只是猜測。我不太清楚。

Okay. Great, sounds good. Thank you guys for the time.

好的。很好，聽起來不錯。謝謝你們抽出時間。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），垂直研究公司。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Not to make you reiterate what you said on the institutional markets. But just the comment about specifications, how good of a leading indicator have you seen that over time? Are you seeing strong specifications, for example, might seem at odds to kind of the ABI and things of that nature. So maybe just a little bit more color on how you try to sort out what the market signals really are here.

嘿，謝謝你。大家早安。並不是讓你重複你在機構市場上說過的話。但僅就規格的評論而言，隨著時間的推移，您認為領先指標有多好？例如，您是否看到強大的規範似乎與 ABI 和類似性質的事物相矛盾。因此，也許您能更詳細地了解如何理清這裡的真正市場訊號。

Yeah, it's a fair question, and there's a reason why we don't publicly disclose a KPI or anything around specifications because it's quite varied. Specifications on a large mega project could be a couple of years before realized revenue, specifications on a small project, renovation, something like that, could be months. And so it's always a little bit different.

是的，這是一個公平的問題，我們不公開披露 KPI 或任何有關規格的資訊是有原因的，因為它變化很大。大型專案的規範可能要等到實現收入後幾年才能確定，而小型專案、改造等的規範可能要等到幾個月才能確定。所以它總是有點不同。

But for us internally, it is a good indicator of capturing project business. And it is something that we do use to drive our own activity within the company. So it's helpful, is at a linear relationship that you can count on quarter-to-quarter. No, that's not the right way to look at it. For us, it's just a general gauge of activity.

但對於我們內部來說，這是獲得專案業務的一個很好的指標。我們確實用它來推動公司內部的活動。因此，它很有幫助，是一種可以逐季度依賴的線性關係。不，這不是正確的看待方式。對我們來說，這只是一個一般性的活動衡量標準。

Appreciate that. And then also understand you don't want to move the revenue target around with everything so fluid every day. But would it be reasonable to assume that you're really looking at sort of an upside revenue case, but maybe some pressure on margins, right? I don't know if your goal on tariffs is to offset dollar for dollar or at the margin rate, right? But if it's dollar neutral, it's margin negative. Again, maybe we're splitting hairs. But just wondering how you think about how the year might progress from revenue versus margin standpoint?

非常感謝。然後你還要明白，你不想讓每天如此不穩定的局勢改變收入目標。但是，是否可以合理地假設，您確實在考慮某種上行收入情況，但利潤率可能會受到一些壓力，對嗎？我不知道你們的關稅目標是等額抵銷還是以邊際稅率抵消，對嗎？但如果美元是中性的，那麼利潤率就是負的。再一次，也許我們是在吹毛求疵。但只是想知道您如何看待今年從收入和利潤率的角度可能出現的進展？

Yeah, Jeff, thanks for that question. As we think about it, we offset it at the dollar basis. So at the OI and EPS level. So if there's substantial tariffs, that would be margin rate, potentially margin rate impact negative, but it's the dollars that we're going to offset. That's consistent with what we said at year-end, and we still feel that way. So your question was spot on. That's how we're thinking about it from a margin rate. You can do the [journey] of the math to kind of --

是的，傑夫，謝謝你的提問。當我們考慮這一點時，我們會以美元為基礎來抵消它。因此在 OI 和 EPS 水準上。因此，如果存在大量關稅，那麼利潤率可能會受到負面影響，但這是我們要抵消的美元。這與我們在年底所說的一致，我們仍然這麼認為。所以你的問題是正確的。這就是我們從保證金率的角度來考慮的問題。你可以透過數學來--

Yeah. No, I get it. I think a lot of people forget that math, numerators and denominators. So I just wanted to be clear on that. And then just one other quick one, speak to margin rate, even taking out the $3 million from Mexico, I think that Americas margin in Q1 is the best Q1 margin you've ever printed. I guess the mix is positive with resi weak and electronics strong. But anything else you would say about the margin rate in the quarter, mix within mix or something else going on there that supported that level of margin?

是的。不，我明白了。我認為很多人都忘了數學、分子和分母。所以我只是想明確這一點。然後我再快速問一下，關於利潤率，即使扣除墨西哥的 300 萬美元，我認為美國第一季的利潤率也是有史以來最好的第一季利潤率。我猜測，房地產疲軟、電子產品強勁，這種組合是正面的。但是，您還想談談本季的利潤率、產品組合或其他支持該利潤水準的因素嗎？

Yeah. Really pleased with the margin performance in Q1. And frankly, over the last couple of years, we've done a really good job of driving productivity in the business as well, which helps the margin performance. One item I will highlight for you is our non-residential business, as you know, is a more profitable product line than the non-res is more profitable than res. And so you have to consider that when you look at margin rates. Obviously, non-res growing, residential declining. So that's the one item I'll call out for you.

是的。對第一季的利潤表現非常滿意。坦白說，在過去的幾年裡，我們在提高業務生產力方面做得非常好，這有助於提高利潤率。我要向您重點強調的一點是我們的非住宅業務，正如您所知，這是一條比非住宅產品線更有利可圖的產品線，比住宅產品線更有利可圖。因此，當你查看保證金率時，你必須考慮到這一點。顯然，非住宅正在成長，住宅正在下降。這就是我要向你們指出的一件事。

Great. All right, thank you.

偉大的。好的，謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Hi, good morning. Clearly, a really good start to the year. I just want to understand kind of what the framework is as you think about Q2 and expectation setting. I think you talked about maybe there's a little bit of a of a price/cost timing impact, but just from the demand side also, it sounds like no real pull forward, really strong volumes in Americas in Q1.

嗨，早安。顯然，這是今年的一個非常好的開始。我只是想了解一下當你考慮 Q2 和期望設定時框架是什麼樣的。我想您談到了可能存在一些價格/成本時間影響，但僅從需求方面來看，聽起來並沒有真正的拉動，美洲第一季的銷售確實很強勁。

And so is it really just a margin sensitivity just given strong beat in Q1, no raise at this point in the guide, any first half, second half framework would be helpful. Like is it sort of roughly 48% first half of the year on EPS and anything there just to kind of help level set on how things are pacing in the first half.

那麼，這真的只是利潤敏感度嗎？考慮到第一季的強勁表現，指南中此時沒有上調，任何上半年、下半年的框架都會有所幫助。例如，上半年 EPS 大概為 48%，這是否有助於確定上半年的業績進度。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Joe. I would say, obviously, when you model us, and you've heard me say this before, get the full year first and then work on the quarters. I did call out earlier concept of that month is lag price cost. I think it's important for you to consider that. Absent that, we're not calling any pull ahead from Q2 into the first quarter.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬。我想說，顯然，當你為我們建模時，你以前也聽過我這麼說，先得到全年的數據，然後再研究每個季度的數據。我之前確實提到過那個月的概念是落後價格成本。我認為你考慮這一點很重要。除此之外，我們不會預測第二季會比第一季有任何成長。

So I think the key thing for you to consider is that item I mentioned earlier, get the full year and then consider that in your model. And also the tax rate, we did have an unusual tax rate in Q1. So in my prepared remarks, I mentioned about first half is similar to second half. That is different than normal for us. So when you model that, just kind of take that into consideration.

所以我認為您需要考慮的關鍵是我之前提到的項目，獲取全年數據，然後在您的模型中考慮這一點。還有稅率，我們第一季的稅率確實不尋常。所以在我準備好的發言中，我提到上半場與下半場相似。這對我們來說是與平常不同的。因此，當你對此進行建模時，只需考慮到這一點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then can you just spend a little bit of time on the go-to-market and distribution and what might be a little bit unique about kind of locks and contract hardware dealers because I think there's some attention on the degree to which there's pull forward or whether there's just stocking ahead of price increases. But how much of the business would generally be stock in flow nature versus this is spec in and the short-cycle nature of it is just dependent on the timing of when the project meets the products, but it's not exactly stock and flow.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，您能否花一點時間討論市場進入和分銷，以及鎖具和合約五金經銷商的獨特之處，因為我認為人們關注的是提前拉動的程度，或者是否只是在價格上漲之前進行備貨。但是，業務中有多少通常是存貨流動性質，而有多少是規格和短週期性質，這僅取決於專案滿足產品的時間，但並非完全是存貨和流動。

Yeah, Joe, it's a good question. And I think it's part of the secret sauce of Allegion. This -- if you look at our -- and in my opinion, the industry's finest field sales and marketing team, you split those folks 3:1, three folks working on end user demand generation through architectural design, through end-user consulting on complex spaces, et cetera. And then that demand generation helps pull our products through the channel.

是的，喬，這是個好問題。我認為這是 Allegion 的秘密武器之一。如果你看看我們的——在我看來，我們是業內最好的現場銷售和行銷團隊，你將這些人以 3:1 的比例分成三組，三組人透過建築設計、透過複雜空間的最終用戶諮詢等方式來滿足最終用戶的需求。然後，這種需求的產生有助於推動我們的產品透過通路銷售。

We -- and generally, as an industry, we operate on short lead times. This is a book-and-ship business. I would say that pull strategy makes it quite similar for the majority of our distribution partners. Like I mentioned in the -- earlier in the Q&A, watching very closely to see evidence of any pull ahead or any like inventory builds and on the non-res side, we're just not seeing that at this point. I'd say with our largest distribution partners on the non-res side, we do watch sell-through. Sell-through has been very healthy.

我們－一般來說，作為一個產業，我們的營運週期很短。這是一項預訂和運輸業務。我想說的是，拉動策略使得我們的大多數分銷合作夥伴的情況非常相似。就像我在之前的問答中提到的那樣，我們密切關注非住宅方面是否有任何提前或類似庫存增加的證據，但目前我們還沒有看到這種情況。我想說，與我們在非房地產方面最大的分銷合作夥伴一起，我們確實觀看了銷售。銷售情況一直非常好。

And so at this point, just not seeing evidence of any large inventory build. But again, very volatile time. So premature to do anything different than we did on the outlook. And that's how we would see it, book-and-ship business.

因此，目前還沒有看到任何大規模庫存累積的證據。但同樣，這是一個非常動盪的時期。因此，現在就採取任何不同於我們之前所採取的展望的做法還為時過早。這就是我們所看到的預訂和運輸業務。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林齊 (Brett Linzey)。

Hey, good morning, all. Yeah. I wanted to come back just to pricing and trying to understand the timing and the magnitude here. Has all the price you need to offset the $80 million now been announced with this April 2 round of price? Or should we expect more actions to ramp in feather through the balance of the year?

嘿，大家早安。是的。我只是想回到定價問題並試圖了解這裡的時機和規模。4 月 2 日的此次定價是否已經公佈了抵銷 8,000 萬美元所需的所有價格？或者我們應該期待在今年餘下的時間裡採取更多行動？

I would answer it this way, Brett. We will always announce to the channel first, and we made that announcement based on the tariffs that are in place today. I think that's the key clarifier. So anything that the President announced or the administration announced already in April, we've taken the actions. And that's in the marketplace now.

我會這樣回答，布雷特。我們將始終首先向渠道宣布這一消息，並且我們根據目前實施的關稅宣布這一消息。我認為這是關鍵的澄清點。因此，總統或政府在四月宣布的任何消息，我們都已採取行動。現在它已經出現在市場上了。

Got it. And then, I guess, just maybe the mechanics between list price and surcharge, you did flag the surcharge path as well. I guess what does the composition between those two pricing levers look like? And then I guess, at what point do you just assume the tariffs are may be structural and you begin to convert some of the surcharge to list over time? Just trying to understand the mix there.

知道了。然後，我猜，也許只是標價和附加費之間的機制，你也標記了附加費路徑。我猜這兩個定價槓桿之間的組成是什麼樣的？然後我想，在什麼時候你會假設關稅可能是結構性的，並且隨著時間的推移你會開始將一些附加費轉換為清單？只是想了解那裡的混合。

Yeah, that's fair. We did opt for surcharge rather than list price changes at this point. To your second question on when do we assume, well, we're not assuming we're watching and monitoring the tariff environment. I think the amplitude of the volatility and the continual nature of the volatility just has us focused on remain agile, do our analysis, make sure we understand our exposures and our impact and then work with our channel partners to mitigate that impact.

是的，這很公平。此時我們確實選擇了附加費而不是標價變更。對於您的第二個問題，我們何時假設，嗯，我們並沒有假設我們正在觀察和監控關稅環境。我認為波動的幅度和波動的持續性讓我們專注於保持敏捷，進行分析，確保我們了解我們的風險敞口和影響，然後與我們的通路合作夥伴合作以減輕這種影響。

That's what we've done so far. That's why we're confident to reiterate the guide today. And looking forward, I think that's the best way to think about us. We will remain agile and resilient.

這就是我們目前所做的。這就是為什麼我們今天有信心重申該指南。展望未來，我認為這是思考我們的最佳方式。我們將保持敏捷和韌性。

All right. Appreciate the insight.

好的。感謝您的見解。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe wanted to focus, first of all, on the residential market in the Americas. And I guess two parts to that. One is, what are you seeing in the replacement market demand right now, leaving aside the prebuy and the hangover that had happened and leaving aside green field, which is weak, what are you seeing kind of on the fundamentals and sell-out in the replacement market?

嗨，早安。也許首先想關注美洲的住宅市場。我想這可以分為兩個部分。一是，您現在看到替代市場的需求如何，拋開預購和已經發生的後遺症，拋開疲軟的綠地，您看到替代市場的基本面和拋售情況如何？

And also, on market share in residential, I would think there's quite a good opportunity to take domestic share because of the struggles that a lot of the importing rivals will have. Is that something you're pushing your sales force to do or it's more around the margins are lower, or you're kind of just happy with your share as is?

此外，就住宅市場份額而言，我認為由於許多進口競爭對手將面臨困境，因此有相當好的機會佔領國內市場份額。這是您在敦促銷售人員做的事情嗎？還是因為利潤率較低，或是您對目前的份額感到滿意？

Okay. Yeah. Thanks for the question, Julian. I would say a year ago or nine months ago, we were very helpful for a better outlook on US residential but with persistently high mortgage rates. Affordability is still a challenge in the country even though we know there is a housing shortage. There is -- that dynamic is still there, but mortgage rates are still high. tariff uncertainty and construction costs are a wildcard right now. So resi, as we mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks we expect to just kind of continue to remain soft. I'd say maybe bouncing along the bottom until there is a notable catalyst to change that.

好的。是的。謝謝你的提問，朱利安。我想說，一年前或九個月前，我們對美國住宅的更好前景非常有幫助，但抵押貸款利率持續居高不下。儘管我們知道存在住房短缺，但負擔能力仍然是該國面臨的挑戰。確實，這種動態仍然存在，但抵押貸款利率仍然很高。關稅的不確定性和建造成本目前是一個不確定因素。因此，正如我們之前在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們預計經濟將繼續保持疲軟。我想說也許會在底部反彈，直到出現明顯的催化劑來改變這種狀況。

Our residential business is probably 70% aftermarket, 30% new build. I think it's round numbers we've shared for a while and that, I think, still holds. In terms of other imports and cost advantages or disadvantages, I think it's really premature to put too much stock into that right now just because of the very volatile nature of the tariff environment we've been in. So time will tell on that. Where we've been focused, as you saw in the presentation, is on the electronics side, where we feel we're an innovation leader.

我們的住宅業務大概有 70％ 是售後市場，30％ 是新建市場。我認為這是我們一段時間以來分享的整數，而且我認為這個數字仍然成立。至於其他進口產品和成本優勢或劣勢，我認為現在就過早相信這一點還為時過早，因為我們所處的關稅環境非常不穩定。所以時間會證明一切。正如您在演示中看到的，我們一直專注於電子產品領域，我們認為自己是該領域的創新領導者。

We are differentiated. We continue to bring differentiated product to market and drive growth in electronics. And these recent two new products, new front door locks, I think you might even be a customer for one of them because they're very, very exciting, good innovation, good technology, premium products.

我們是與眾不同的。我們不斷向市場推出差異化產品，推動電子產品的成長。而最近推出的這兩款新產品，新的前門鎖，我想你甚至可能成為其中之一的客戶，因為它們非常非常令人興奮，具有良好的創新性、優良的技術、優質的產品。

That's helpful. Thanks very much. And then as we think about the profit outlook, I think the price productivity net of inflation and an investment, that sort of aggregate line in your profit bridge was around 0 in the first quarter. And I think there was some consternation in Q4 when it was a headwind. So understand it's a lot of moving pieces there, particularly now with tariffs coming in. But should we assume that you can kind of keep that line sort of around 0 for the balance of the year? Is that sort of the aspiration with the surcharges and all the rest of it?

這很有幫助。非常感謝。然後，當我們考慮利潤前景時，我認為扣除通貨膨脹和投資的價格生產率，利潤橋中的總線在第一季約為 0。我認為，當第四季出現逆風時，人們會感到有些驚慌。所以要明白這裡面有很多變化因素，特別是現在關稅開始實施。但是我們是否應該假設您可以在全年中將該線保持在 0 左右？這就是附加費和其他費用的期望嗎？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Julian. That's exactly how we think about it, right? Price and productivity covering that inflation and investment, right? So think of it as neutral for the year. We had a challenged Q4. I addressed it on the call but felt confident in the ability to get it back to the normal neutral that we -- I just mentioned. You saw that in Q1. Expect that to be that for the full year. Quarter to quarter, it could ebb and flow like you saw Q4 last year. I also mentioned in Q2, the timing lag. But for the full year, think of it as a neutral number like you mentioned.

是的。謝謝你的提問，朱利安。我們正是這麼想的，對吧？價格和生產力涵蓋了通貨膨脹和投資，對嗎？因此，可以將其視為今年的中性水平。我們的第四季充滿挑戰。我在電話中提到了這一點，但我相信我們有能力讓它恢復到我剛才提到的正常中性狀態。您在第一季就看到了這一點。預計全年情況都將如此。每個季度，它可能會像去年第四季一樣起伏不定。我在第二季也提到了時間延遲。但對於全年而言，就像您提到的那樣，可以將其視為一個中性數字。

That's great. Thanks very much.

那太棒了。非常感謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I wanted to just follow up -- start with a quick one on the mechanics of the guide. So if I'm understanding right, the revenue guide does not assume any uplift for incremental or for price action or surcharges, I guess, related to the tariffs. But the operating profit guide does reflect those price actions?

謝謝。我只是想跟進一下——先快速介紹一下指南的機制。因此，如果我理解正確的話，收入指南並沒有假設任何與關稅相關的增量或價格行動或附加費的上漲。但營業利潤指南確實反映了這些價格行為嗎？

Yeah. If you read the press release, that's explicitly stated in the release, Chris. So you have it correct.

是的。克里斯，如果你讀過新聞稿，你會發現新聞稿中明確說明了這一點。所以你的答案正確。

Thank you. I guess when we've talked to people in the channel lately, we've heard about like project paralysis on a lot of I guess probably it will be a new greenfield with just uncertainty around price and cost, hard to do quoting bidding and things have slowed. I guess, do you not think that, that will impact your volumes this year? Or is it like you were saying earlier, we're so late cycle that, that would hit us or any maybe slowdown in new projects would hit us in the out years? Any color on that would be helpful. Thank you.

謝謝。我想，當我們最近與頻道中的人們交談時，我們聽說了很多項目癱瘓的情況，我想這可能是一個新的綠地，對價格和成本存在不確定性，很難進行報價投標，而且事情已經放緩。我想，您不認為這會影響您今年的銷售嗎？或者就像您之前說的，我們的周期太晚了，這會對我們造成打擊，或者任何新項目的放緩都會在未來幾年對我們造成打擊？任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. Very fair question. And certainly, I'd say as interest rates rose in recent times, you did see some of that on the private finance market, private projects. might have gone through planning phase might have gone through design with the architect and then just press pause to wait for a bit more favorable financing environment. Late last year, we did talk about interest rates as a key swing factor.

是的。非常公平的問題。當然，我想說，隨著最近利率上升，你確實在私人融資市場和私人項目中看到了一些這樣的情況。可能已經經歷了規劃階段，可能已經與建築師一起完成了設計，然後按下暫停鍵，等待更有利的融資環境。去年年底，我們確實談到利率是關鍵的波動因素。

I think as you mentioned, we hear evidence of a similar dynamic. So I'd say as interest rates do come down as a more favorable investment environment comes about it does feel like there's a lot of already designed, already planned projects that could go forward. We'll just have to wait and see what's the catalyst to get that environment a bit more favorable.

我認為正如您所提到的，我們聽到了類似動態的證據。因此我想說，隨著利率下降，投資環境更加有利，感覺有很多已經設計好、已經計劃好的項目可以繼續前進。我們只需拭目以待，看看什麼催化劑可以讓這種環境變得更有利。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝。我很感激。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Yes, good morning. Just a follow-up on Chris' question. Lots of consternation about potential recession a couple of weeks ago. These concerns seemingly have gone away. What are you guys seeing in terms of momentum in the channel. And so far, clearly, you guys not calling for a recession. What makes you confident in your outlook? What are we seeing in April? If you could give us some color there. Thank you.

是的，早安。這只是對克里斯問題的後續回答。幾週前，人們對潛在的經濟衰退感到非常擔憂。這些擔憂似乎已經消失。你們看到了頻道方面的什麼動量。到目前為止，顯然你們還沒有預見到經濟衰退。什麼使您對自己的觀點充滿信心？四月我們將會看到什麼？如果您能給我們一些顏色的話。謝謝。

I appreciate the question, Andrew. And I'd say, we don't guide quarters. We're certainly not going to guide on months. But if you look at the progression of positive volume growth in the last few quarters of 2024, we exited '24 with good momentum in non-res. That momentum has continued thus far this year in non-res. And I think, again, it's a healthy aftermarket. It's a resilient institutional verticals. New products that Allegion has brought to market contributing to the internal indicators that give us confidence in the full year guidance.

我很感謝你提出這個問題，安德魯。我想說的是，我們不指導宿舍。我們當然不會以月份為單位來提供指導。但如果你觀察一下 2024 年最後幾季的正向交易量成長進程，就會發現我們在 2024 年結束時非房地產領域發展勢頭良好。今年迄今為止，非房地產領域仍延續著這一勢頭。我認為這是一個健康的售後市場。這是一個有彈性的機構垂直行業。Allegion 推向市場的新產品有助於提高內部指標，讓我們對全年業績指引充滿信心。

And maybe just to flip it a little bit. We were in Europe, and it seems a lot of optimism in Italy actually of all places, people talking about maybe a potential German recovery sometime in the second half. What are you seeing in Europe? What are you seeing in CISA? What's the messaging from your German channel into the second half of the year? Thank you.

或許只是稍微翻轉一下。我們在歐洲，實際上在所有地方中，義大利似乎最令人樂觀，人們談論德國經濟可能在下半年某個時候復甦。您在歐洲看到了什麼？您在 CISA 中看到了什麼？您的德國頻道對今年下半年有何展望？謝謝。

Yes. Great question, Andrew. I love talking about international because again, that business unit is -- continues to perform well in the face of kind of flattish markets. In Europe, I would say, Germany with the political upheaval they had at the end of 2024 slowed down pretty dramatically. I do feel there is more optimism now as the new coalition gets built a little bit more conversation about investment in the country.

是的。好問題，安德魯。我喜歡談論國際業務，因為該業務部門在市場低迷的情況下仍然表現良好。在歐洲，我想說，德國在 2024 年底經歷的政治動盪之後，經濟發展速度急劇放緩。我確實感到現在大家更加樂觀了，因為新聯盟已經建立，關於在該國投資的討論也更多了。

We'll see how that plays out but it does feel better than it did in Q4, but I think still premature for us to change anything. We're just going to reiterate the guide. Italy, CISA, you specifically asked, I'm really proud of that team. They've done a lot of self-help work on their portfolio and their factories have been gaining market share as a result. So new products hitting the market very proud of them. CISA is performing well. So thanks for the call out.

我們將觀察結果如何，但感覺確實比第四季好一些，但我認為現在改變任何事情還為時過早。我們只是要重申一下指南。義大利，CISA，你特別問到，我真的為那支團隊感到驕傲。他們針對自己的投資組合做了大量的自助工作，他們的工廠也因此獲得了市場份額。所以新產品上市時他們非常自豪。CISA 表現良好。感謝您的來電。

But no near-term improvement in terms of macro in Italy?

但義大利的宏觀經濟狀況短期內不會有所改善嗎？

I think the best we can say, Andrew is, again, just reiterating the full year guide. This how you ought to think about it.

我認為我們能說的最好的是，安德魯只是再次重申了全年指南。你應該這樣想。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stone for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給約翰·斯通，請他作最後發言。

Well, thanks, everyone, for the great Q&A. We look forward to connecting with you in New York at our Investor Day, where you will hear a little bit more about our long-term growth strategy. And I would just leave you with I'm very confident that Allegion is a high-quality industrial company. We have an important mission, served by great people. And in my opinion, there are few secular trends more important, particularly in times like today and that's personal safety and security and that's what we do.

好吧，謝謝大家的精彩問答。我們期待在紐約投資者日與您聯繫，屆時您將了解更多有關我們長期成長策略的資訊。我只想告訴你們，我非常有信心 Allegion 是一家高品質的工業公司。我們肩負著重要的使命，需要由偉大的人來完成。在我看來，沒有什麼長期趨勢比這更重要，特別是在當今時代，那就是人身安全和保障，而這正是我們所做的。

So come see us in May in New York or join us for our Q2 earnings call in July. Be safe, be healthy, everyone. Thanks for the time.

因此，歡迎您於 5 月在紐約與我們見面，或於 7 月參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。大家注意安全，保持健康。謝謝你的時間。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。