安朗杰 (ALLE) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Allegion First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Allegion 2024 年第一季財報電話會議（操作員說明） 請注意，此活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Pokrzywinski, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Josh Pokrzywinski。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Allegion's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With me today are John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial officer of Allegion. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and the presentation, which we will refer to in today's call, are available on our website at investor.allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website.

謝謝你，德魯。大家，早安。感謝您參加 Allegion 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長約翰‧史東 (John Stone)；和 Allegion 資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Wagnes。我們今天早上早些時候發布的收益報告以及我們將在今天的電話會議中提到的簡報可在我們的網站 Investor.allegion.com 上取得。此通話將被記錄並存檔在我們的網站上。

Please go to Slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

請前往投影片 2。請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的一些因素的描述。該公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details.

今天的演示和評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。如需了解更多詳情，請參閱我們新聞稿中財務表格中的調整表。

Please go to Slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to John.

請前往投影片 3，我會將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Allegion is off to a solid start in 2024, and I'm very proud of our entire team. I'll walk through some of the top Q1 highlights briefly, and will share more on each of these through the course of the presentation. Institutional markets remain healthy as we expected, our team continues to leverage our capabilities in spec writing, made-to-order manufacturing and strong distribution partnerships to best serve our end user customers.

謝謝，喬許。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。 Allegion 在 2024 年取得了良好的開局，我為我們整個團隊感到非常自豪。我將簡要介紹第一季的一些主要亮點，並將在演示過程中分享有關每個亮點的更多資訊。正如我們預期的那樣，機構市場保持健康，我們的團隊繼續利用我們在規格編寫、客製化製造和強大的分銷合作夥伴關係方面的能力，為我們的最終用戶客戶提供最佳服務。

We're executing at a high level, expanding margins in the quarter and delivering balanced capital allocation. As previously announced, we acquired Boss Door Controls and Dorcas in Q1 and returned cash to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我們正在高水準執行，擴大本季的利潤並實現平衡的資本配置。正如先前宣布的，我們在第一季度收購了 Boss Door Controls 和 Dorcas，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還現金。

Driven by our vision of enabling seamless access in a safer world, Allegion's Q1 performance has set a solid foundation for the year. We're performing well, and we're affirming the 2024 outlook we provided to you in February.

在我們在更安全的世界中實現無縫訪問的願景的推動下，Allegion 第一季的業績為今年奠定了堅實的基礎。我們表現良好，並確認了 2 月份向您提供的 2024 年展望。

Please go to Slide 4. Allegion continues to deliver on balanced and consistent capital allocation and our Q1 performance showcases this. We continue to invest for organic growth, building on the legacy of our flagship brands delivering new value and access through industry-first innovations and nurturing strategic relationships to be the partner of choice.

請參閱投影片 4。我們繼續投資於有機成長，以我們旗艦品牌的傳統為基礎，透過業界領先的創新提供新的價值和機會，並培育策略關係，成為首選合作夥伴。

In March, Schlage announced a new smart lock integration with Airbnb to help improve and simplify host and guest experiences alike. Our integration means most Airbnb hosts with listings in the U.S. and Canada can now provide the seamless access experience to guests with the industry-leading Schlage Encode smart lock family directly within the Airbnb app. Host can streamline the check-in and checkout process with automatically generated guest access codes, removing the need to manually create unique codes for each visitor.

今年 3 月，Schlage 宣布與 Airbnb 整合新的智慧鎖，以幫助改善和簡化房東和房客的體驗。我們的整合意味著大多數在美國和加拿大擁有房源的 Airbnb 房東現在可以直接在 Airbnb 應用程式中透過業界領先的 Schlage Encode 智慧鎖系列為房客提供無縫存取體驗。主人可以透過自動產生的訪客存取代碼簡化入住和結帳流程，無需為每位訪客手動建立唯一的代碼。

Access codes are shared with guests at the time of booking, and those codes are only active during their trip, automatically deactivating after checkout. Hosts can make any needed adjustments to their guest check-in and checkout times in the Airbnb app, which will automatically update the smart lock, keeping them in control of the access experience, while guests can rest easy with the peace of mind brought by having Schlage on the door. The smart lock integration within the Airbnb app is currently only compatible with Schlage, making this another industry first for our company.

訪問代碼在預訂時與客人共享，這些代碼僅在旅行期間有效，並在退房後自動停用。房東可以在愛彼迎應用程式中對房客入住和退房時間進行任何必要的調整，該應用程式將自動更新智慧鎖，讓房客掌控門禁體驗，而房客則可以安心地享受智慧鎖帶來的安心。 Airbnb 應用程式中的智慧鎖定整合目前僅與 Schlage 相容，這也是我們公司的另一個行業首創。

Allegion also continues to be a dividend-paying stock. And as a reminder, in February, we announced our tenth consecutive annual dividend increase. For the quarter, this amounted to approximately $42 million in cash returned to shareholders.

Allegion 也仍然是一檔派息股票。提醒一下，二月份，我們宣布連續第十次增加年度股利。本季向股東返還的現金約為 4,200 萬美元。

Additionally, in Q1, we closed 2 bolt-on acquisitions. During our last earnings call, we discussed the February acquisition of Boss Door Controls in the U.K., which brings a strong architectural channel and a flexible supply chain while positioning us to increase our spec-driven business in Allegion International.

此外，在第一季度，我們完成了 2 項補強收購。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們討論了 2 月對英國 Boss Door Controls 的收購，這帶來了強大的架構管道和靈活的供應鏈，同時使我們能夠增加 Allegion International 的規格驅動業務。

In March, we acquired Dorcas, a leading manufacturer of electromechanical access control solutions based in Spain. Dorcas' solutions are distributed and sold internationally with a strong presence across European markets, including in the education and health care verticals. Their electric strikes and locks are integral elements of access control systems and bringing this business into Allegion International is another strategic investment in the quality of our portfolio there. Lastly, in the first quarter, we made additional share repurchases amounting to approximately $40 million.

3 月，我們收購了 Dorcas，這是一家位於西班牙的機電門禁解決方案領先製造商。 Dorcas 的解決方案在全球範圍內分銷和銷售，在歐洲市場（包括教育和醫療保健垂直領域）擁有強大的影響力。他們的電鎖和門鎖是門禁系統不​​可或缺的組成部分，將這項業務引入 Allegion International 是我們對那裡的產品組合品質進行的另一項策略投資。最後，在第一季度，我們額外回購了約 4,000 萬美元的股票。

Overall, I'm happy with the balanced capital allocation you see here on this slide. We continue to invest in the core, continue growing the business and continue returning cash to shareholders. Mike will now walk you through first quarter financial results, and I'll be back to provide some final thoughts.

總體而言，我對您在這張投影片上看到的平衡資本配置感到滿意。我們繼續投資核心業務，繼續發展業務，並繼續向股東返還現金。麥克現在將向您介紹第一季的財務業績，我將回來提供一些最終的想法。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Please go to Slide #5. As John shared, our team's Q1 performance reflects a solid start to 2024. Revenue for the first quarter was $893.9 million, a decrease of 3.2% compared to 2023. Organic revenue declined 3.6% on a challenging prior year comparable, which was up 15%. Q1 2023 experienced abnormally strong seasonality as the business recovered from previous supply chain interruptions.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。請轉到投影片#5。正如John 分享的那樣，我們團隊的第一季業績反映了2024 年的良好開局。營收下降了3.6%，去年同期成長了15% 。隨著業務從先前的供應鏈中斷中恢復過來，2023 年第一季經歷了異常強烈的季節性。

Adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 40 and 50 basis points, respectively, in the first quarter, driven by price and productivity in excess of inflation and investment. The team executed well to deliver margin expansion despite the volume declines.

在價格和生產力超過通膨和投資的推動下，第一季調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別成長 40 和 50 個基點。儘管銷量下降，團隊仍表現出色，實現了利潤成長。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.55 decreased $0.03 or approximately 1.9% versus the prior year. Volume declines and tax headwinds more than offset margin expansion and interest and other favorability.

調整後每股收益為 1.55 美元，與前一年相比減少了 0.03 美元，約 1.9%。銷量下降和稅收不利因素足以抵消利潤率擴張以及利息和其他優惠。

Finally, Q1 2024 available cash flow was $23.9 million, which was a 48.8% decrease versus last year and represents a return to historical norms. I will provide more details on our cash flow and balance sheet a little later in the presentation.

最後，2024 年第一季可用現金流為 2,390 萬美元，比去年下降 48.8%，恢復到歷史正常水準。我將在稍後的演示中提供有關我們的現金流量和資產負債表的更多詳細資訊。

Please go to Slide #6. This slide provides an overview of our quarterly revenue. I will review our enterprise results here before turning to our respective regions. Organic revenue declined in the quarter by 3.6% as a result of the tough comparable I just mentioned. We saw the business returning to more normal seasonality in Q1 2024 versus what we experienced last year. Currency and acquisitions drove additional favorability in the quarter, bringing the total reported decline to 3.2%.

請轉到投影片 #6。這張投影片概述了我們的季度收入。在轉向我們各自的地區之前，我將在這裡回顧一下我們的企業表現。由於我剛才提到的嚴格可比性，該季度的有機收入下降了 3.6%。與去年相比，我們看到業務在 2024 年第一季恢復到更正常的季節性。貨幣和收購推動了本季的額外優惠，使報告的總跌幅達到 3.2%。

Please go to Slide #7. Our Americas segment delivered strong operating results in Q1. Revenue of $709.3 million was down 4.3% on both the reported and organic basis as favorable pricing more than offset lower volumes. On a 2-year basis, our Americas business grew approximately 17% organically. Our nonresidential business, inclusive of Access Technologies, declined mid-single digits against the prior year comp that grew nearly 30%.

請轉到投影片#7。我們的美洲部門在第一季取得了強勁的經營業績。報告收入和有機收入均下降 7.093 億美元，下降 4.3%，原因是有利的定價足以抵消銷售下降的影響。兩年來，我們的美洲業務有機成長了約 17%。我們的非住宅業務（包括 Access Technologies）與去年成長近 30% 的同期相比下降了中個位數。

Residential markets remained soft with our business down low single digits in the quarter as higher interest rates continue to impact new and existing home sales. Demand for electronics in our Americas business remained strong. While revenue was down low single digits in the quarter against a tough comp, our electronics business has grown nearly 30% over the last 2 years.

由於利率上升繼續影響新房和現房銷售，住宅市場依然疲軟，本季我們的業務下降了低個位數。我們美洲業務對電子產品的需求依然強勁。儘管在嚴峻的競爭情況下，本季營收下降了低個位數，但我們的電子業務在過去兩年中成長了近 30%。

Americas adjusted operating income of $197.3 million decreased 0.4% versus the prior year period due to lower volumes. However, adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter were up 120 and 140 basis points, respectively. Overall, our Americas team continues to execute well and operate efficiently, driving margin expansion through price and productivity in excess of inflation and investments despite lower volumes.

由於銷售量下降，美洲地區調整後營業收入為 1.973 億美元，較上年同期下降 0.4%。然而，本季調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別成長了 120 和 140 個基點。總體而言，我們的美洲團隊繼續表現良好，營運高效，儘管銷量較低，但透過價格和生產力推動利潤率擴張，超過通貨膨脹和投資。

Please go to Slide #8. Our International segment continues to see a challenging macroeconomic environment. Revenue of $184.6 million was up 1.4% on a reported basis but down 0.8% organically. Price realization was more than offset by lower volumes associated with soft end market demand. Currency and acquisitions were a tailwind this quarter, positively impacted reported revenue by 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively. International adjusted operating income of $19.3 million decreased 2% versus the prior year period.

請轉到投影片 #8。我們的國際部門持續面臨充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境。報告營收為 1.846 億美元，成長 1.4%，但有機下降 0.8%。軟終端市場需求相關的銷售下降遠遠抵消了價格的實現。貨幣和收購是本季的順風車，對報告收入分別產生了 0.8% 和 1.4% 的正面影響。國際調整後營業收入為 1,930 萬美元，較上年同期下降 2%。

Adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter decreased 40 and 50 basis points, respectively. Price and productive tailwinds, covering inflationary pressures, but modest volume declines resulted in lower year-on-year margin rates.

本季調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別下降 40 和 50 個基點。物價和生產性有利因素抵銷了通膨壓力，但銷量小幅下降導致年比利潤率下降。

Please go to Slide #9. As I mentioned earlier, year-to-date available cash flow came in at $23.9 million, down $22.8 million versus the prior year. Q1 2023 cash flow was particularly strong as it benefited from supply chain lead time reductions, while the current year is more in line with historical norms.

請轉到投影片 #9。正如我之前提到的，年初至今的可用現金流為 2,390 萬美元，比前一年減少 2,280 萬美元。 2023 年第一季的現金流特別強勁，因為它受益於供應鏈交貨時間的縮短，而今年更符合歷史正常水平。

Next, working capital as a percent of revenue increased primarily driven by higher receivables as a result of timing of revenue and collections within the quarter versus the prior year. Finally, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA remains at a healthy ratio of 1.9x, consistent with where we finished 2023. Our business is generating strong cash flow and our balance sheet supports continued capital deployment.

其次，營運資本佔收入的百分比增加，這主要是由於本季收入和收款時間安排與上一年相比應收帳款增加所致。最後，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率保持在 1.9 倍的健康比率，與 2023 年結束時的情況一致。

I will now hand the call back over to John.

我現在將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Mike. Please go to Slide 10. As we did last quarter, I want to spend a moment to highlight some of the key factors that we believe distinguish Allegion's business model and how we win in the marketplace. We continue to see favorable long-term demand drivers, particularly in our core institutional markets. Projects in these markets are largely funded outside of traditional bank financing and may be more commonly funded by municipal bond issuance. Bond issuance has continued its steady long-term growth with cycles around election year referendums. Issuance continues to support our view for stable institutional market demand as we progress through 2024.

謝謝，麥克。請看投影片 10。我們繼續看到有利的長期需求驅動因素，特別是在我們的核心機構市場。這些市場中的項目主要由傳統銀行融資以外的資金提供，並且可能更常見的是透過市政債券發行提供資金。隨著選舉年公投的周期，債券發行繼續保持穩定的長期成長。隨著 2024 年的進展，發行量持續支持我們對機構市場需求穩定的看法。

Moving to the right side. We feel strongly we have a winning formula that comes from bringing the depth of Allegion expertise into these attractive markets. Our team has notched multiple health care wins in 2024, our traditional mechanical hardware and sliding door solutions have a strong value proposition in this vertical and the service capability we acquired with Access Technologies frequently puts us over the top. This shows the value we unlock through M&A as we continue to deploy capital and broaden our portfolio as a pure play in security and access.

移動到右側。我們堅信，透過將 Allegion 的深度專業知識帶入這些有吸引力的市場，我們擁有一個勝利秘訣。我們的團隊在 2024 年取得了許多醫療保健勝利，我們的傳統機械硬體和滑動門解決方案在這個垂直領域具有強大的價值主張，而我們透過 Access Technologies 獲得的服務能力經常使我們處於領先地位。這顯示了我們透過併購釋放的價值，因為我們繼續部署資本並擴大我們的投資組合，將其作為純粹的安全和存取領域。

Please go to Slide 11. In summary, Allegion's first quarter was marked by strong execution. Our team expanded margins and delivered balanced capital allocation, and we're affirming our full year 2024 outlook. It's noteworthy to share that Allegion was named a 2024 Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award winner earlier this month. This highly competitive award recognizes Allegion as 1 of the most engaged workplaces and it's a testament to the dedication of all 12,000-plus Allegiant employees.

請參閱投影片 11。我們的團隊擴大了利潤並實現了平衡的資本配置，我們確認了 2024 年全年展望。值得注意的是，Allegion 本月稍早被評為 2024 年蓋洛普傑出工作場所獎得主。這項競爭激烈的獎項將 Allegion 視為最積極參與的工作場所之一，也是對所有 12,000 多名 Allegion 員工奉獻精神的證明。

Our team truly believes in Allegion's responsibility to keep our employees safe, operate sustainably, live up to high ethical standards and serve our local communities. By living our values and increasing employee engagement, we accelerate Allegion's success and advance our vision of enabling seamless access in a safer world for you. I'm proud of the progress we're making and grateful to be a part of this high-performing team.

我們的團隊堅信 Allegion 有責任確保員工安全、永續營運、遵守高道德標準並服務當地社區。透過實踐我們的價值觀和提高員工敬業度，我們加速 Allegion 的成功，並推進我們的願景，為您打造一個更安全的世界，實現無縫訪問。我為我們所取得的進步感到自豪，並很高興能成為這個高績效團隊的一員。

Okay. Let's turn to Q&A.

好的。讓我們轉向問答。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

This is Matthew Pan from Julian Mitchell's team at Barclays. Just the first one, kind of thinking about seasonality, Q2 is typically about 25% of the year's earnings. Any reason that might be different this year?

我是巴克萊銀行朱利安·米切爾團隊的馬修·潘。僅第一個，考慮到季節性，第二季度通常約為全年收益的 25%。今年可能有所不同的原因是什麼？

Thanks for the question, Matt. When you think about our year, I would say return to normal seasonality is a theme that we said last year was abnormal. As far as individual quarters, we really don't like giving individual quarterly guidance, as you know.

謝謝你的提問，馬特。當你想到我們的一年時，我會說恢復正常的季節是我們去年所說的不正常的主題。就個別季度而言，我們確實不喜歡提供個別季度指導，如您所知。

I would just say, as you think about our business, don't think of last year as normal. Think of maybe some of the history that we had in the past where the summer months have more revenue. Like many companies that deal with the construction industry, we have more revenue in the summer months, the middle 2 quarters, with the revenues on the book ends 1 and 4 being a little less.

我只想說，當你思考我們的業務時，不要認為去年是正常的。想想我們過去的一些歷史，夏天的收入更多。與許多從事建築業的公司一樣，我們在夏季月份、中間兩季的收入較多，帳面第 1 和第 4 季的收入略少。

So our business tends to have a little more revenue in the back half of the year than the first half. But in general, think of '24 as a return to more normal seasonality versus what you saw in '23.

所以我們的業務下半年的收入往往會比上半年多一點。但總的來說，與 23 年相比，24 年是更正常的季節性回歸。

Got it. And then just 1 follow-up. Lennox talked about some project delays in commercial construction and Otis was pretty downbeat on new orders. Does Allegion see any sort of project delays or any worse market outlook in the Americas nonresi piece versus, say, 6 months ago?

知道了。然後只有 1 個後續行動。倫諾克斯談到了商業建設中的一些項目延誤，而奧的斯對新訂單相當悲觀。與 6 個月前相比，Allegion 是否認為美洲的 nonresi 文章有任何形式的專案延遲或市場前景惡化？

Yes. So this is John. I appreciate the question. I think we would just go back to some of the prepared remarks, where we see Allegion's business is rather heavily weighted towards institutional, which, as we indicated, has more public financing type avenues to market. And the institutional segment is stable.

是的。這就是約翰。我很欣賞這個問題。我想我們只想回到一些準備好的評論，我們看到 Allegion 的業務相當偏重於機構，正如我們所指出的，機構有更多的公共融資類型的市場管道。機構部分穩定。

And I think in the commercial space, if our commercial business is kind of split between office, multifamily and then kind of everything else, which would include retail, which would include warehouses, manufacturing, data centers, there are certainly pockets of strength and pockets of weakness.

我認為在商業領域，如果我們的商業業務分為辦公室、多戶住宅和其他一切，其中包括零售，其中包括倉庫、製造、資料中心，那麼肯定有一些實力和口袋的弱點。

I think the broad portfolio and the broad end market exposure we have, that's what comes together and gives you the guide that we're contemplating for 2024, the outlook that we're contemplating. And so institutional, stable. Bond issuance actually had a pretty strong Q1, if you look at that year-over-year, which gives us a good feel that our outlook is pretty solid.

我認為我們擁有的廣泛的投資組合和廣泛的終端市場敞口，這就是我們所考慮的 2024 年的指南，以及我們正在考慮的前景。如此制度化、穩定。如果你對比去年同期來看，第一季債券發行其實相當強勁，這讓我們感覺我們的前景相當穩固。

In terms of specifics, like did this project get delayed as you go through channel checks and as we get out and visit distributors and customers and things, yes, you do hear about that. You don't hear much in the way of cancellation. You do hear maybe a multifamily project is on hold for a little bit. You do hear some of that. But I'd say our business is more heavily weighted towards institutional and that segment is quite stable right now.

就具體細節而言，就像當你通過渠道檢查以及當我們出去拜訪經銷商和客戶時，這個項目是否被推遲了，是的，你確實聽說了這一點。您不會聽到太多關於取消的消息。您確實聽說某個多戶住宅項目可能會暫時擱置。你確實聽到了一些。但我想說的是，我們的業務更側重於機構業務，而且該細分市場目前相當穩定。

The next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

So I wanted to ask on Americas electronics. The downward single digit in the quarter on a tough comp, plus 30% to your stack still showing strong demand there. I guess just in terms of as you think about the year and what the comps look like in the remainder of the year, is this an area where you expect to see growth? Any context on kind of magnitude of year-over-year change for electronics demand in Americas on a full year basis?

所以我想問美國電子產品。在艱難的競爭中，本季的下降個位數，再加上 30% 的堆疊仍然顯示出強勁的需求。我想，就您對這一年的看法以及今年剩餘時間的比較來看，您預計這是一個會成長的領域嗎？有關美洲全年電子產品需求較去年同期變化幅度的背景資訊嗎？

Joe, if you think about -- thanks for the question. If you think about individual product lines, we don't guide a product line or electronics. What I would share with you, long-term growth driver. You can see this business on a long-term basis, delivering CAGRs of high single-digit to low double-digit growth for electronics.

喬，如果你想一下──謝謝你的問題。如果您考慮單一產品線，我們不會指導產品線或電子產品。我想與您分享的是長期成長動力。您可以看到這項業務的長期發展，為電子產品帶來了高個位數到低兩位數的複合年增長率。

Clearly, last year, we had some catch-up associated with previous supply chain challenges. And so it was very robust growth that you saw, frankly, over the last 2 years. When you think of our electronics business, think of it as a long-term growth driver that's going to provide tailwinds for us to deliver above-market growth.

顯然，去年我們在應對先前的供應鏈挑戰方面取得了一些進展。坦白說，過去兩年你看到了非常強勁的成長。當您想到我們的電子業務時，請將其視為長期成長動力，它將為我們實現高於市場的成長提供動力。

Got it. And then also just related to the end markets and I guess, what we've seen recently in kind of ABI and Dodge Momentum, some of the softening there. Not really sure that, that kind of aligns with maybe the way you're characterizing things in particular, saw some softness related to Dodge Momentum in institutional markets. And really just interested on your perspective and what we're seeing in some of those leading indicators versus what you're seeing in spec writing and activity on the ground.

知道了。然後也與終端市場有關，我想，我們最近在 ABI 和道奇動量方面看到了一些軟化的情況。不太確定，這可能與您描述事物的方式一致，特別是在機構市場中看到了與道奇動量相關的一些疲軟。我真的只是對您的觀點以及我們在一些領先指標中看到的內容與您在規範編寫和實地活動中看到的內容感興趣。

And especially as it relates to backlog of projects and the degree that, that could be weighing on some of the lead indicators where there's just a large backlog of projects. And so the stuff that's coming in might be a little bit slower just because of long lead times. So anyway, observations on kind of lead indicators.

特別是因為它與專案積壓及其程度有關，這可能會影響一些專案積壓較多的領先指標。因此，由於交貨時間長，進來的東西可能會慢一些。無論如何，對領先指標的觀察。

Yes. This is John. I'll add some comments, I guess, to your comments, Joe. I think the lead indicators are what they are. I'd say we always got to be cautious not to read too much positive or too much negative into those. They're good signals, and we watch them just like you do. I think over the last like 18 to 20 months, institutional has been favorable when compared with some of the other commercial verticals. That does seem to play out in the end market as we get out and visit customers and distributors.

是的。這是約翰。我想我會在你的評論中添加一些評論，喬。我認為領先指標就是這樣。我想說的是，我們總是要小心，不要對這些解讀太多正面或負面的情緒。它們是很好的信號，我們會像您一樣觀察它們。我認為在過去的 18 到 20 個月裡，與其他一些商業垂直領域相比，機構一直是有利的。當我們走出去拜訪客戶和經銷商時，這似乎確實在終端市場上發揮了作用。

I think the lead time that you brought up with construction labor shortages, projects taking longer, that probably is extending some jobs out, some projects out longer than maybe historically it has been. In terms of quantifying that in an impact and the Dodge Momentum or any of these indices, we're not the right people to do that. What I would say is, again, we see stable institutional markets as -- and again, that's where our business is heavily weighted.

我認為你提到的建築勞動力短缺、項目需要更長的時間，這可能會延長一些工作崗位，有些項目可能會比歷史上的時間更長。就量化影響和道奇動量或任何這些指數而言，我們不是這樣做的合適人選。我想說的是，我們再次看到穩定的機構市場——這也是我們業務的重中之重。

And the commercial segment of our business, you see a mixed set of verticals, just like we mentioned on the previous question. Our resi business, as we mentioned, is flat to slightly down. And in our outlook, we don't contemplate any dramatic changes or any dramatic tailwinds from those end markets, but feel good about the outlook we've provided. And I think initial start to the year affirms that for us.

在我們業務的商業部分，您會看到一組混合的垂直領域，就像我們在上一個問題中提到的那樣。正如我們所提到的，我們的再生矽業務持平或略有下降。在我們的展望中，我們不會考慮來自這些終端市場的任何巨大變化或任何巨大的推動力，但對我們提供的前景感到滿意。我認為今年的開始對我們來說肯定了這一點。

The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

This is Peter Costa on for Brett. I just have a strategic question around the election and tariffs. Obviously, we don't know what the outcome looks like, but just understanding that Allegion has a manufacturing footprint outside the U.S. Can you just talk about how nimble your supply chain is and just your ability to flex around different regions should we enter a more aggressive tariff regime?

我是彼得·科斯塔 (Peter Costa) 替補布雷特 (Brett)。我只是有一個關於選舉和關稅的戰略問題。顯然，我們不知道結果會是什麼樣，但只是了解Allegion 在美國以外的地區擁有製造足跡。運用的能力激進的關稅制度？

Well, let me -- this is John. I would just open with tariffs of any kind or not helpful to a company like Allegion in terms of our supply chain. I'd say we learned a lot of lessons as did everybody else over the course of 2022 and 2023. And in terms of supply chain resiliency, we feel a lot better about our position than we would have a couple of years ago.

好吧，讓我——這是約翰。我會以任何形式的關稅作為開場白，或者對像 Allegion 這樣的公司在我們的供應鏈方面沒有幫助。我想說，在 2022 年和 2023 年期間，我們和其他人一樣吸取了很多教訓。

Not going to get into specifics of where we buy this part or that part or where we make this or that. But I would say, managing the portfolio of several million SKUs like we do, made-to-order environment in terms of supply chain and manufacturing, I'm quite confident in Allegion's capabilities regardless of tariff regimes or administrations.

不會詳細說明我們在哪裡購買這個或那個零件，或我們在哪裡製造這個或那個。但我想說，像我們一樣管理數百萬個 SKU 的產品組合，在供應鏈和製造方面的客製化環境，我對 Allegion 的能力非常有信心，無論關稅制度或管理如何。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stone, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回總裁兼執行長約翰·斯通 (John Stone) 發表閉幕詞。

Well, thanks very much. And just to reiterate, we feel we're off to a solid start in 2024. We look forward to connecting with you again next quarter. Be safe, be healthy, everyone.

嗯，非常感謝。重申一下，我們認為 2024 年我們將有一個良好的開端。大家注意安全，身體健康。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。