安朗杰 (ALLE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Allegion Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Pokrzywinski, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Allegion 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Josh Pokrzywinski。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Allegion's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allegion.

謝謝你，德魯。大家，早安。感謝您參加我們的 Allegion 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長約翰‧史東 (John Stone)；和 Allegion 資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Wagnes。

Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and the presentation, which we will refer to in today's call, are available on our website at investor.allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website.

我們今天早上早些時候發布的收益報告以及我們將在今天的電話會議中提到的簡報可在我們的網站 Investor.allegion.com 上取得。此通話將被記錄並存檔在我們的網站上。

Please go to Slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

請前往投影片 2。今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測有重大差異的一些因素的描述。該公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details. Please go to Slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to John.

今天的演示和評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。如需了解更多詳情，請參閱我們新聞稿中財務表格中的調整表。請前往投影片 3，我會將電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'd like to start today by recognizing that 2023 was a year of strong execution by the entire Allegion team. This performance reflects the value we had for our customers, the strength of our distribution partners as well as the quality of our brands and the capabilities and expertise of our employees.

謝謝，喬許。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天開始，我想認識到 2023 年是整個 Allegion 團隊強有力的執行力的一年。這項業績反映了我們為客戶提供的價值、分銷合作夥伴的實力以及我們品牌的品質以及員工的能力和專業知識。

Let's walk through some highlights of the quarter and the year. After celebrating our tenth anniversary as a stand-alone company in December, we closed the year with record revenue, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS. Reinforcing the thesis behind our seamless access strategy, electronics demand remains strong. We delivered approximately 20% organic growth in electronics for the year as supply chains normalized, and that's on top of mid-teens organic growth in the prior year.

讓我們來回顧一下本季和全年的一些亮點。在 12 月慶祝了我們作為獨立公司的十週年之後，我們以創紀錄的收入、調整後營業收入和調整後每股收益結束了這一年。電子產品需求依然強勁，強化了我們無縫接取策略背後的論點。隨著供應鏈正常化，我們今年的電子產品實現了約 20% 的有機增長，這是在去年十幾歲左右的有機增長之上的。

We sustained a high operating cadence and expanded our industry-leading margins in the quarter. And for the full year, our adjusted operating margin performance was 22.1%, up 160 basis points. Simply stated, the Allegion team delivered on price and productivity, bringing margins back to pre-pandemic levels with room to expand further in 2024 and beyond.

本季我們保持了較高的營運節奏，並擴大了業界領先的利潤率。全年調整後營業利益率為 22.1%，上升 160 個基點。簡而言之，Allegion 團隊實現了價格和生產力的目標，將利潤率恢復到疫情前的水平，並在 2024 年及以後有進一步擴大的空間。

Our balance sheet and cash flow generation are strong. We ended the year under 2x net debt to EBITDA, which sets up a 2024 return to the balanced capital deployment you've come to expect from Allegion.

我們的資產負債表和現金流產生強勁。今年結束時，我們的 EBITDA 淨債務為 2 倍，這使得 2024 年 Allegion 能夠恢復您所期望的平衡資本配置。

When you look at our past decade, this team has delivered solid results and executed well through a variety of macroeconomic backdrops. We've built on the strength of 100-year-old brands, consistently meeting customer needs and meeting our commitments to shareholders. We've operated with excellence, sustained the highest margins in the industry and are still pioneering safety, better securing people and their property where they live, learn, work and connect.

當你回顧我們過去的十年時，你會發現這個團隊在各種宏觀經濟背景下都取得了紮實的成果，並且執行得很好。我們以擁有 100 年歷史的品牌實力為基礎，始終如一地滿足客戶需求並履行我們對股東的承諾。我們以卓越的運作方式，保持了行業最高的利潤率，並且仍然在安全方面處於領先地位，更好地保護人們生活、學習、工作和聯繫的地方及其財產的安全。

Driven by our vision of enabling seamless access in a safer world, we're proud of this track record, we're proud of what we delivered in 2023, and we're excited about the momentum we're carrying into 2024.

在我們在更安全的世界中實現無縫訪問的願景的推動下，我們為這一業績記錄感到自豪，我們為我們在2023 年交付的成果感到自豪，我們對我們在2024 年保持的勢頭感到興奮。

Please go to Slide 4, and let's talk about our capital allocation strategy in action. Reflecting on Allegion's first 10 years, we've had a roughly even split between inorganic growth and the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We remain committed to balanced consistent capital allocation and having quickly delevered from the Access Technologies acquisition, our balance sheet supports this strategy.

請前往投影片 4，讓我們談談我們正在實施的資本配置策略。回顧 Allegion 的前 10 年，我們在無機成長和透過股利和股票回購向股東回報資本之間的比例大致相等。我們仍然致力於平衡一致的資本配置，並且在快速擺脫對 Access Technologies 收購的影響後，我們的資產負債表支持了這個策略。

As we move into 2024, we will continue investing for organic growth, prioritizing projects and solutions that drive seamless access forward. One recent example in new product development is Schlage's next generation of innovative electronic locks, the XE360. This is the latest wireless lock family from Schlage designed with flexibility and interoperability in mind.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續投資於有機成長，優先考慮推動無縫存取的專案和解決方案。新產品開發的最新例子是 Schlage 的下一代創新電子鎖 XE360。這是 Schlage 最新的無線鎖系列，在設計時充分考慮了靈活性和互通性。

With solutions for perimeter and interior doors, this series has the security and access features most look for by multifamily and like commercial properties at attractive price points. It leaves with open architecture supports the latest credential technologies and integrates with Allegion and our partner systems. In addition, Schlage's innovative FleX Module allows the XE360 series to be easily upgraded in the field to allow migration from an offline to a network solution and to adapt to emerging trends in security and connectivity down the road.

該系列提供周界門和室內門解決方案，以極具吸引力的價格提供多戶住宅和類似商業房地產最需要的安全和通道功能。它採用開放式架構，支援最新的憑證技術，並與 Allegion 和我們的合作夥伴系統整合。此外，Schlage 的創新 FleX 模組使 XE360 系列能夠在現場輕鬆升級，從而實現從離線解決方案遷移到網路解決方案，並適應未來安全和連接方面的新興趨勢。

Next, Allegion will continue to be a dividend paying stock. You can expect our dividends to grow commensurate with earnings over the long term, and we've just announced our tenth consecutive annual increase. We also expect to grow through acquisitions. Bolt-on acquisitions that fill portfolio gaps in the hardware space and high-margin recurring revenue business in the access solutions space will remain priorities.

接下來，Allegion 將繼續成為派息股票。從長遠來看，您可以預期我們的股息將與收益同步增長，而且我們剛剛宣布連續第十年增加股息。我們也期望透過收購實現成長。填補硬體領域投資組合空白的補強收購以及在接取解決方案領域高利潤經常性收入業務仍將是優先事項。

Larger deals like Access Technologies may be more episodic, but we will be disciplined and have demonstrated the ability to quickly delever. Boss Door Controls, which we closed this month is a classic bolt-on that both complements and expands how we go to market in the U.K. This acquisition bolsters our local business with a strong architectural channel, flexible supply chain and also positions us to increase our spec-driven business there in the future.

像 Access Technologies 這樣的大型交易可能會更加間歇性，但我們會遵守紀律，並展示出快速去槓桿化的能力。我們本月關閉的Boss Door Controls 是一個經典的補充，它既補充又擴展了我們進入英國市場的方式。這次收購透過強大的架構管道、靈活的供應鏈增強了我們的本地業務，也使我們能夠提高我們的業務能力。未來會有規範驅動的業務。

Lastly, with regards to share repurchases, as we've said, at a minimum, we will continue to offset incentive compensation. And as you saw in the fourth quarter, we will make additional share repurchases as appropriate. Mike will now walk you through fourth quarter financial results, and I'll be back to discuss our full year 2024 outlook.

最後，關於股票回購，正如我們所說，至少我們將繼續抵銷激勵薪酬。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，我們將酌情進行額外的股票回購。麥克現在將向您介紹第四季度的財務業績，我將回來討論我們的 2024 年全年展望。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Please go to Slide #5. As John shared, Allegion continued to execute at a high level and delivered another solid quarter. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $897.4 million, an increase of 4.2% compared to 2022.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。請轉到投影片#5。正如 John 所分享的那樣，Allegion 繼續保持高水準執行，並交付了又一個穩定的季度業績。第四季營收為 8.974 億美元，較 2022 年成長 4.2%。

Organic growth of 2.6% was driven by our Americas nonresidential and Access Technologies businesses, offset by declines in residential and international. Adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 130 and 120 basis points, respectively, in the fourth quarter, driven by price and productivity and excess of inflation and investment.

2.6% 的有機成長是由我們的美洲非住宅和接入技術業務推動的，但被住宅和國際業務的下降所抵消。在價格和生產力以及通膨和投資過剩的推動下，第四季度調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別增長了 130 和 120 個基點。

I am pleased with the margin performance as we have recaptured the margin loss during the supply chain disruptions experienced in late 2021 and early 2022. Our operating model and strong execution have positioned us well for future margin expansion.

我對利潤表現感到滿意，因為我們已經收復了 2021 年底和 2022 年初供應鏈中斷期間的利潤損失。我們的營運模式和強大的執行力為我們未來的利潤擴張做好了準備。

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.68 decreased to $0.01 or approximately 0.6% versus the prior year. Operational performance drove growth of $0.17 per share with the offset coming from tax, driven by the timing of discrete items versus the prior year.

調整後每股收益為 1.68 美元，下降至 0.01 美元，較前一年下降約 0.6%。與前一年相比，由於離散項目的時間安排，營運表現推動每股成長 0.17 美元，抵消了稅收的影響。

John will cover the outlook later in the presentation. However, I want to note that our tax rate will migrate to between 18% and 19% in 2024, inclusive of the implementation of global minimum tax. We expect Allegion's structural tax rate will be in the high teens over the planning horizon we laid out at our Investor Day in May.

約翰將在稍後的演講中介紹前景。不過，我想指出的是，到 2024 年，我們的稅率將遷移到 18% 至 19% 之間，其中包括全球最低稅的實施。我們預計 Allegion 的結構性稅率將在我們 5 月投資者日制定的規劃範圍內達到十幾歲。

Finally, full year available cash flow for 2023 was $516.4 million, a 30.6% increase versus last year, driven by higher earnings and improved working capital performance. I will provide more details on cash flow and balance sheet a little later in the presentation.

最後，在獲利增加和營運資本績效改善的推動下，2023 年全年可用現金流為 5.164 億美元，比去年成長 30.6%。我將在稍後的演示中提供有關現金流量和資產負債表的更多詳細資訊。

Please go to Slide #6. This slide provides an overview of our quarterly and full year revenue. I will review our enterprise results here before turning to our respective regions. Organic growth in the quarter was 2.6% as strong price realization offset pressure on volumes.

請轉到投影片 #6。這張投影片概述了我們的季度和全年收入。在轉向我們各自的地區之前，我將在這裡回顧一下我們的企業表現。由於強勁的價格實現抵消了銷售壓力，本季有機成長率為 2.6%。

Currency and acquisitions drove additional favorability in the quarter, bringing the total reported growth of 4.2%. On a full year basis, organic revenue growth was 5.2% overall with Americas at 7.4%. Our international business was down 2.5% for the year. Our full year organic growth was led by electronics and software solutions, which grew globally by approximately 20% in 2023 with both regions in double digits.

貨幣和收購推動了本季的額外優惠，使報告的總成長率達到 4.2%。全年有機收入整體成長 5.2%，其中美洲成長 7.4%。我們的國際業務全年下降 2.5%。我們全年的有機成長由電子和軟體解決方案引領，到 2023 年全球成長約 20%，兩個地區均達到兩位數成長。

Please go to Slide #7. Our Americas segment continues to deliver strong operating results in the fourth quarter. Revenue of $704.6 million was up 3.7% on both a reported and organic basis as favorable pricing offset lower volumes. Our Americas nonresidential business was up mid-single digits against the prior year comp that grew in the mid-20s percent.

請轉到投影片 #7。我們的美洲部門在第四季度繼續取得強勁的經營業績。由於有利的定價抵消了銷售下降的影響，報告收入和有機收入均增長 3.7%，達到 7.046 億美元。我們的美洲非住宅業務與去年 20% 左右的成長率相比，成長了中個位數。

On a full year basis, this business had double-digit organic growth in 2023. Residential markets are soft, with our business down low single digits in the quarter and for the full year, as higher interest rates continue to impact new and existing home sales.

從全年來看，該業務在 2023 年實現了兩位數的有機增長。住宅市場疲軟，由於利率上升繼續影響新房和現房銷售，我們的業務在本季度和全年均出現低個位數下降。

Our Access Technologies business delivered organic growth of mid-single digits in Q4. Americas electronics growth remained strong on a multiyear basis with mid-single-digit growth in the quarter on top of the nearly 50% comparison in Q4 2022. Our Americas adjusted operating income of $188.4 million increased 10.8% versus the prior year period. while adjusted operating margins and adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter were up 170 and 190 basis points, respectively.

我們的接入技術業務在第四季度實現了中位數的自然成長。多年來，美洲電子產品成長依然強勁，在2022 年第四季接近50% 的基礎上，本季實現中位數成長。美洲地區調整後營業收入為1.884 億美元，與去年同期相比成長10.8 %。本季調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別成長 170 和 190 個基點。

The team executed well. We are performing more efficiently driving price and productivity, and we delivered margin expansion every quarter in 2023.

球隊執行得很好。我們正在更有效地推動價格和生產力，我們在 2023 年每季都實現了利潤率擴張。

Please go to Slide 8. Our International segment continues to execute well in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Revenue of $192.8 million was up 5.9% on a reported basis and down 1.3% organically. Price realization was more than offset by lower volumes associated with soft end market demand. Currency and acquisitions were a tailwind this quarter positively impacted reported revenues by 4.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

請轉到投影片 8。我們的國際部門在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中繼續表現良好。報告營收為 1.928 億美元，成長 5.9%，有機下降 1.3%。軟終端市場需求相關的銷售下降遠遠抵消了價格的實現。貨幣和收購是本季的順風車，對報告收入分別產生了 4.4% 和 2.8% 的正面影響。

International adjusted operating income of $32.3 million increased nearly 13% versus the prior year period. We also saw improvement in adjusted operating margins and adjusted EBITDA margins of 110 and 100 basis points, respectively. The team delivered margin expansion for Q4 and the full year despite a challenging top line, highlighting the healthier, more resilient business portfolio we have within our International segment.

國際調整後營業收入為 3,230 萬美元，比去年同期成長近 13%。我們也看到調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別提高了 110 和 100 個基點。儘管營收充滿挑戰，但該團隊在第四季度和全年實現了利潤成長，凸顯了我們在國際部門擁有的更健康、更有彈性的業務組合。

The acquisition growth I mentioned earlier is primarily driven by our plano business, a tuck-in Software-as-a-Service business we acquired early 2023, which is accretive to both growth rates and margins.

我之前提到的收購成長主要是由我們的 Plano 業務推動的，這是我們在 2023 年初收購的軟體即服務業務，它可以提高成長率和利潤率。

Please go to Slide #9. As I mentioned earlier, year-to-date available cash flow came in at $516.4 million, up nearly $121 million versus the prior year. This increase is driven by higher earnings and working capital improvements, partially offset by higher capital expenditures. You can look for Allegion to continue to invest in our business and convert earnings to cash.

請轉到投影片 #9。正如我之前提到的，年初至今的可用現金流為 5.164 億美元，比前一年增加了近 1.21 億美元。這一增長是由收入增加和營運資本改善所推動的，但部分被資本支出增加所抵消。您可以尋找 Allegion 繼續投資我們的業務並將收益轉換為現金。

Next, working capital as a percent of revenue improved versus the prior year, driven by higher inventory turns as supply chains normalized. Finally, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA is down to 1.9x as we successfully delevered following the Access Technologies acquisition.

其次，隨著供應鏈正常化，庫存週轉率提高，營運資本佔收入的百分比較前一年改善。最後，隨著我們在收購 Access Technologies 後成功去槓桿化，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率降至 1.9 倍。

We are now back to historical leverage levels, which demonstrates our proven track record of effectively deploying capital while maintaining both our leverage profile and our investment-grade credit rating. Our business continues to generate strong cash flow, and our balance sheet continues to be in a healthy position. I will now hand the call back over to John for our 2024 outlook.

我們現在回到了歷史槓桿水平，這證明了我們在有效部署資本的同時保持槓桿狀況和投資級信用評級的良好記錄。我們的業務繼續產生強勁的現金流，我們的資產負債表繼續保持健康的狀態。現在，我將把電話轉回給約翰，詢問我們對 2024 年的展望。

Thanks, Mike. Please go to Slide 10. And before we get to guidance, I want to spend a moment on what we see as a couple of key drivers for 2024, including macroeconomic inputs that inform our outlook. We're expecting more modest inflation in 2024, enabling normal levels of margin expansion from net price and productivity. We report these to you as aggregate price, productivity, inflation and investments shown in the left-hand chart.

謝謝，麥克。請觀看投影片 10。在我們提供指導之前，我想花點時間討論我們認為的 2024 年的幾個關鍵驅動因素，包括影響我們前景的宏觀經濟投入。我們預計 2024 年通膨將更加溫和，使淨價格和生產率的利潤率達到正常水平。我們以總價格、生產力、通貨膨脹和投資的形式向您報告，如左圖所示。

Since the beginning of 2019, we've averaged approximately 60 basis points of margin contribution annually from net price and productivity. This has been a hallmark of the business over time, and it's a key driver of our 2024 outlook. We're expecting a stable nonresidential environment underpinned by healthy institutional markets. You can see Dodge starts for institutional have shown steady growth in the past few years, contrasting the higher volatility in commercial leaning verticals.

自 2019 年初以來，我們每年淨價和生產力的利潤貢獻平均約為 60 個基點。隨著時間的推移，這一直是該業務的標誌，也是我們 2024 年前景的關鍵驅動力。我們預計在健康的機構市場的支持下，將出現穩定的非住宅環境。您可以看到道奇機構的開工率在過去幾年中表現出穩定成長，與商業傾斜垂直市場的較高波動性形成鮮明對比。

As you all know, Allegion is a late-cycle business and starts can lead our business by a year or more. We're not expecting many market tailwinds However, we believe the visibility and stability of late-cycle institutional verticals as well as our large installed base will allow us to deliver organic growth.

眾所周知，Allegion 是一家後週期企業，起步可以領先我們一年或更長時間。我們預計不會有太多市場順風，但是，我們相信後期機構垂直市場的可見性和穩定性以及我們龐大的安裝基礎將使我們能夠實現有機成長。

Please go to Slide 11, and let's walk through the outlook for 2024. We expect total and organic revenue growth in the Americas to be 1.5% to 3.5%. This is led by our nonresidential business forecast to grow low to mid-single digits organically.

請轉到投影片 11，讓我們展望 2024 年。我們預計美洲地區的總收入和有機收入成長率將為 1.5% 至 3.5%。這是由我們的非住宅業務預測有機成長低至中個位數帶動的。

Please note the nonresidential business is inclusive of Access Technologies starting this year. The residential business is expected to be flat to down slightly on an organic basis. Overall, for the Americas, we are expecting more normal seasonality with tough comps in the first quarter.

請注意，從今年開始，非住宅業務包括 Access Technologies。住宅業務預計將持平或略有下降。整體而言，對於美洲地區，我們預期第一季的季節性因素將更加正常，且競爭更加激烈。

For Allegion International, we expect total revenue to be up 1.5% to 3.5% and minus 1% to up 1 % on an organic basis. Inorganic growth includes the recently announced acquisition of Boss Door Controls. While mechanical markets remained sluggish in international, I'm pleased with how the team executed to close out the year. We have a high-quality portfolio and continue to see good growth potential in our International, Electronics and Software Solutions businesses.

對於 Allegion International，我們預計總收入有機成長 1.5% 至 3.5%，負 1% 至成長 1%。無機成長包括最近宣布收購 Boss Door Controls。儘管國際機械市場仍然低迷，但我對團隊結束這一年的表現感到滿意。我們擁有高品質的產品組合，並繼續看到我們的國際、電子和軟體解決方案業務的良好成長潛力。

All in for the company, we are projecting total revenue growth of 1.5% to 3.5% with organic revenue growth of 1% to 3%.

總體而言，我們預計公司總收入將成長 1.5% 至 3.5%，有機收入成長 1% 至 3%。

We expect to drive margin expansion consistent with our historical framework. We're confident in the execution playbook we have for 2024 given cost to actions taken in '23 and a more modest inflation environment. Based on our strong operating momentum, prior cost actions and more normalized inflation we are projecting an adjusted EPS outlook in the range of $7 and $7.15. This represents growth of approximately 1% to 3% over the prior year period, inclusive of a $0.37 headwind from tax.

我們預計將按照我們的歷史框架推動利潤率擴張。考慮到 23 年採取的行動所付出的成本以及較為溫和的通膨環境，我們對 2024 年的執行方案充滿信心。基於我們強勁的經營勢頭、先前的成本行動和更正常化的通膨，我們預計調整後的每股盈餘前景將在 7 美元到 7.15 美元之間。這意味著比上年同期增長約 1% 至 3%，其中包括 0.37 美元的稅收阻力。

Lastly, we expect our outlook on available cash flow to be in the range of $540 million to $570 million. While we are committed to balanced and consistent capital deployment, this guidance does not include future capital deployment beyond the recent acquisition of Boss Door Controls.

最後，我們預計可用現金流的前景為 5.4 億至 5.7 億美元。雖然我們致力於平衡和一致的資本部署，但本指南不包括最近收購 Boss Door Controls 之外的未來資本部署。

Please go to Slide 12. Bottom line, I am very proud of the entire Allegion team's 2023 performance and grateful for the strong distribution partners and loyal customers we have. As we look ahead to 2024, we will continue to build on the Allegion legacy and deliver new value and access.

請轉到投影片 12。最重要的是，我對整個 Allegion 團隊 2023 年的表現感到非常自豪，並對我們擁有的強大分銷合作夥伴和忠實客戶表示感謝。展望 2024 年，我們將繼續繼承 Allegion 的傳統，提供新的價值和機會。

Our team is focused on relentless execution of our strategy and balanced capital deployment against what we expect to be a stable market backdrop. We remain committed to putting our customers first and delivering our vision of enabling seamless access in a safer world. I look forward to updating you more in the future as we work to achieve another record year for Allegion and propel our company into its next decade of growth. With that, let's turn to Q&A.

我們的團隊專注於在我們預期穩定的市場背景下不懈地執行我們的策略和平衡的資本部署。我們仍然致力於將客戶放在第一位，並實現我們在更安全的世界中實現無縫訪問的願景。我期待在未來為您提供更多最新消息，我們將努力讓 Allegion 再創歷史新高，並推動我們公司進入下一個十年的成長。接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

Wanted to start on op margin in '24. It looks like year-over-year margin expansion maybe in the 60 bps kind of range. So it would fit within the 50 to 100 bps, I think medium-term target, but also comes off a pretty tough comp where you just did 160 and so I think maybe a little bit better than anticipated.

想從 24 年開始靠營運利潤開始。看起來同比利潤率擴張可能在 60 個基點的範圍內。所以我認為它會適合 50 到 100 bps，這是中期目標，但也來自一個非常艱難的比較，你剛剛做了 160，所以我認為可能比預期好一點。

Can you just talk about the drivers of that year-over-year expansion that's embedded in terms of price productivity inflation sort of how much of that is driven by it? And then also, how much is already kind of in there in terms of carryover price, price that you've announced, cost actions that you've taken versus how much you still have to go get?

您能否談談價格生產力通膨所包含的逐年擴張的驅動因素，以及其中有多少是由其推動的？然後，就結轉價格、您宣布的價格、您已採取的成本行動而言，已經有多少，以及您還需要獲得多少？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Joe. You're correct in that. If you look at margin expansion, a big driver of that is the price productivity in excess of inflation and investments. As you look at our top line guide, pricing is going to be a driver of growth. If you think about midpoint, it's going to be the biggest driver of growth. As a result, you will get margin expansion when you think about the '24 year.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬。你是對的。如果你看一下利潤率擴張，你會發現其一個重要驅動因素是價格生產力超過了通貨膨脹和投資。當您查看我們的頂線指南時，您會發現定價將成為成長的驅動力。如果考慮中點，它將成為成長的最大推動力。因此，當您考慮 24 年時，您將獲得利潤擴張。

And in addition, when you think about the actions we've taken, the biggest driver of price for us is our nonresidential business in the Americas. Those pricing actions have already been announced and in the marketplace. And then from cost actions, we've taken some cost actions in the fourth quarter of '23. As a result, we're positioned nicely. You should see an acceleration of productivity in 2024. So when you think about our margin outlook, the actions have been taken and we're positioned well in order to achieve that outlook.

此外，當你考慮我們所採取的行動時，我們最大的價格驅動因素是我們在美洲的非住宅業務。這些定價行動已經公佈並在市場上進行。然後從成本行動來看，我們在 23 年第四季採取了一些成本行動。結果，我們的定位很好。到 2024 年，您應該會看到生產力的加速。因此，當您考慮我們的利潤前景時，我們已經採取了行動，並且我們已經做好了充分的準備，以實現這一前景。

That's really helpful. And then in terms of nonres and the growth outlook in Americas, can you unpack that a little bit by vertical, then talk about sort of electronics versus mechanical, but then institutional versus commercial, I think a lot of focus on sort of office and headwinds out there. But what you see on kind of new versus renovation, just trying to understand some of the moving pieces within that growth in non-res.

這真的很有幫助。然後就非資源和美洲的成長前景而言，您能否從垂直方向進行一些分析，然後談談電子與機械，然後是機構與商業，我認為很多關注點都集中在辦公室和逆風上在那裡。但你所看到的新與翻新的情況，只是試著去了解非資源成長中的一些令人感動的部分。

Yes, Joe. This is John. I appreciate the question. I think as we showed, the institutional verticals, they're less volatile than the commercial leading verticals and have still been flashing some positive data on starts. So we -- and our businesses, as you know, is a little bit heavily tilted to those vertical. So we feel good about that space. It's stable.

是的，喬。這是約翰。我很欣賞這個問題。我認為，正如我們所展示的，機構垂直行業的波動性低於商業領先垂直行業，並且仍然在啟動方面閃現出一些積極的數據。因此，如您所知，我們以及我們的業務有點嚴重偏向垂直領域。所以我們對這個空間感覺很好。它很穩定。

The commercial, that's a wide basket of end users. So it's everything from data centers to retail, to office, to multifamily. We put that in the commercial bucket as well. And certainly, commercial office on the new construction side is soft and has been for quite some time. We think that will continue. Multifamily has been slowing as well. So we're not counting on a dramatic snap back there. We do see strength like everybody has been talking about in data centers. That's a highly spec application of our high-end electronic products.

就廣告而言，這是一大批最終用戶。因此，從資料中心到零售、辦公室、再到多戶住宅，無所不包。我們也將其放入商業桶中。當然，新建築方面的商業辦公大樓表現疲軟，並且已經持續相當長一段時間了。我們認為這種情況將會持續下去。多戶住宅的發展速度也正在放緩。所以我們並不指望那裡會發生戲劇性的轉變。我們確實看到了資料中心的力量，就像每個人都在談論的那樣。這是我們高階電子產品的高規格應用。

And I'd say on balance, you add all that up, the puts and the takes, and complement that with -- again, if you think of Allegion has about 50-50 new construction to aftermarket exposure. The aftermarket is quite stable across all verticals, break-fix, repair and maintenance, even some tenant turnover here in commercial office. So the aftermarket is still, I think, pretty stable and underpins the overall portfolio.

我想說，總的來說，你把所有這些，看跌期權和看跌期權加起來，然後補充一下——再次，如果你認為 Allegion 有大約 50-50 個新建築可供售後市場曝光。售後市場在所有垂直領域、故障修復、維修和維護方面都相當穩定，甚至商業辦公大樓也有一些租戶流動。因此，我認為售後市場仍然相當穩定，並支撐著整體投資組合。

That's what leads us to come up to low to mid-single digits for growth in nonres. The only other item to mention since we do include Access Technologies and nonres for this year and going forward is big retail chains with store renovations and things like that also makes for a rather stable outlook on the Access Tech, the automatic doors business. That's kind of how we would see the whole basket.

這就是導致我們的非RES 成長達到中低個位數的原因。唯一值得一提的其他項目是因為我們確實包括了今年和未來的 Access Technologies 和非零售業，因此大型零售連鎖店進行了商店翻新，類似的事情也使得 Access Tech（自動門業務）的前景相當穩定。這就是我們看到整個籃子的方式。

The next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. My first question is just on the cadence of organic growth. It just looks like in first quarter '23, you had a big backlog burn, so that will be a tougher comp. Is it fair to say you probably have a slightly negative organic growth in first quarter and then it ramps up to maybe closer to mid-single-digit level in the second half?

我是維韋克·斯里瓦斯塔瓦（Vivek Srivastava）為喬代言。我的第一個問題是關於有機成長的節奏。看起來在 23 年第一季度，你們的積壓工作量很大，所以這將是一個更艱難的競爭。可以公平地說，第一季的自然成長可能會略有負值，然後在下半年可能會上升到接近中個位數的水平嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Clearly, Q1 is going to be our most challenging comp when you think about the '24 year. We don't give quarterly guidance. But if you recall, we burned through that backlog Q1 of '23. So when you think about our cadence for top line, '23 was not a normal year, right? When we think about '24, I think there's more normal seasonality. So we're a little more back half loaded than first half loaded from a top line. Don't want to get individual quarter forecasting. As you know, we don't give quarterly guidance. But just remember, little more back half than first half from the top line as a company and that we do have that really challenging comp in the first quarter when you model year-over-year.

是的。謝謝你的提問。顯然，當你考慮 24 年時，第一季將是我們最具挑戰性的比賽。我們不提供季度指引。但如果你還記得的話，我們就燒掉了 23 年第一季的積壓訂單。因此，當您考慮我們的頂線節奏時，23 年不是正常的一年，對吧？當我們想到 24 世紀時，我認為有更正常的季節性。因此，我們從頂線開始的後半段負載比前半段負載要多一些。不想獲得單一季度的預測。如您所知，我們不提供季度指導。但請記住，作為一家公司，後半段的業績比上半年的業績要多一些，當你逐年建模時，我們在第一季確實面臨著真正具有挑戰性的競爭。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on the International segment margins. It was impressive to see that in fourth quarter despite negative organic growth, you expanded over 100 basis points of margin. Could you talk about what drove that strong margin expansion in fourth quarter and then just expectations in that segment for margins in 2024?

這很有幫助。然後是國際部門利潤率的後續行動。令人印象深刻的是，第四季儘管有機成長出現負成長，但利潤率卻擴大了 100 個基點以上。您能否談談是什麼推動了第四季利潤率的強勁成長，以及對該領域 2024 年利潤率的預期？

Yes, super pleased about our international business when you think about the margin performance. If you look at our 10-year history, that business is breakeven when we spun out a decade ago. Now we're driving good healthy margin expansion. It's a much healthier portfolio. When you think about that electronics and software businesses, we've been talking about the last few years, strong -- stronger businesses from a margin perspective and top line.

是的，當您考慮利潤表現時，我們對我們的國際業務非常滿意。如果你看看我們 10 年的歷史，你會發現當我們十年前分拆時，這個業務已經達到收支平衡。現在我們正在推動利潤率的良好健康擴張。這是一個更健康的投資組合。當你想到電子和軟體業務時，我們一直在談論過去幾年從利潤率和營收角度來看更強大的業務。

So really doing some good work to drive productivity in the region, pricing excellence. Tim, he took the excellence we had in the Americas and brought that to International as well. So a lot of things favorable for International as we think about the business for '23 and more importantly, moving forward.

因此，確實做了一些很好的工作來提高該地區的生產力，並實現卓越的定價。提姆，他將我們在美洲的卓越表現帶到了國際舞台。因此，當我們考慮 23 年的業務，更重要的是，繼續前進時，很多事情對 International 有利。

The next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Sprague。

Just coming back to just the seasonality comment. I know you don't comment into quarters, but are you comfortable with us kind of assuming kind of the pre-COVID period, call it, 2014 to 2019 is what you mean by normal seasonality as we look into Q1?

回到季節性評論。我知道您不會對季度發表評論，但是您對我們假設新冠疫情之前的時期（即 2014 年至 2019 年）就是您在研究第一季時所說的正常季節性的情況感到滿意嗎？

Yes. Jeff, if you look at halves, I'd like to talk about it in halves. I think that '14 to '19 is kind of a normal seasonality when you look at the half years. And we expect to be more in line with that a little more back half weighted than first half.

是的。傑夫，如果你看一半，我想分成兩半來談。從半年來看，我認為 14 到 19 年是一種正常的季節性。我們預計後半場的權重會比前半場稍多。

Okay. Great. Could you just give us a little more color on Boss, the size, the profitability, what impact, if any, it has on international margins?

好的。偉大的。您能否為我們介紹一下 Boss 的更多情況、規模、盈利能力以及它對國際利潤率的影響（如果有的話）？

Yes. Jeff, if you think about that business, organic -- I'm sorry, inorganic growth for International, you would assume -- about half of that inorganic growth we've highlighted in the outlook is coming from the Boss Door acquisition, the other half coming from currency. So you could see it's a pretty -- it's a smaller acquisition. It's not a massive size.

是的。傑夫，如果你考慮一下該業務的有機增長——對不起，國際公司的無機增長，你會認為——我們在展望中強調的無機增長中約有一半來自Boss Door 的收購，另一半來自收購Boss Door。一半來自貨幣。所以你可以看到這是一個相當漂亮的收購，規模較小。這不是一個巨大的尺寸。

So from a price now on the top line, you have an idea that it's not a huge acquisition, but it's a nice complement to our business, we're really strong at writing specifications in North America. This is bringing that spec writing capability to a large country in Europe like the U.K.

因此，從目前的頂線價格來看，您會知道這不是一筆巨大的收購，但它是對我們業務的一個很好的補充，我們在北美編寫規範方面非常強大。這將規範編寫能力帶到了像英國這樣的歐洲大國。

Great. And then, John, earlier in your opening remarks, you mentioned this new Schlage electronic product. Can you just maybe provide a little bit more color overall on what you're expecting for electronics growth in 2024? Is there a measurable impact on your investment levels to drive that, et cetera?

偉大的。然後，約翰，您在開場白中提到了這款新的 Schlage 電子產品。您能否就您對 2024 年電子產品成長的整體預期提供更多資訊？是否會對您的投資水準產生可衡量的影響來推動這一目標等等？

Yes, it's a good question, Jeff. And I think if you listen to the prepared remarks in 2022, strong electronics growth, 2023, around 20% electronics growth. So I mean, over the long haul, long term, like we said at Investor Day back in May last year, think of our electronics performance as high single, low double-digit growth driver for Allegion. We've definitely given backlog burn and things in 2023, we'll have some tough electronics comps here and there.

是的，這是一個好問題，傑夫。我認為，如果你聽一下準備好的講話，2022 年，電子產品將強勁成長，2023 年，電子產品將成長 20% 左右。所以我的意思是，從長遠來看，就像我們在去年五月的投資者日上所說的那樣，將我們的電子產品業績視為 Allegion 高個位數、低兩位數的成長動力。我們肯定會在 2023 年進行積壓工作，我們將在各處進行一些艱難的電子產品比賽。

But demand is still strong. The secular trend still remains, this migration to electronic access control for better security and better convenience is still moving and underway. We're still investing there. XE360 is just one that was very timely to highlight for us given the flexibility and interoperability that, that brings to the market.

但需求依然強勁。長期趨勢仍然存在，為了更好的安全性和更好的便利性而向電子存取控制的遷移仍在進行中。我們仍然在那裡投資。鑑於 XE360 為市場帶來的靈活性和互通性，XE360 是非常及時地向我們強調的產品。

And also just to highlight, the ease of upgrade of that in the field. We're also pretty excited about that. I mean the flexibility that's going to offer the end users is quite interesting and quite attractive for us. I think as you -- as we move through 2024, you can continue to see, I think, an emphasis from us on things like product vitality, you're going to see a steady stream of new product launches just like this, and we look forward to highlighting those for you.

而且只是為了強調現場升級的便利性。我們對此也非常興奮。我的意思是，將為最終用戶提供的靈活性對我們來說非常有趣且有吸引力。我認為，當我們邁入 2024 年時，您可以繼續看到我們對產品活力等議題的重視，您將看到像這樣源源不斷地推出新產品，我們期待為您重點介紹這些內容。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just the first question. You talked about some of the color by end market vertical earlier. And maybe one, I guess, wanted a bit more color on was the education vertical. I think it's one of your largest. So maybe any sense of kind of scale of how much of your business is education today?

也許只是第一個問題。您之前談到了終端市場垂直領域的一些顏色。我想，也許其中一個想要更多色彩的是教育垂直領域。我認為這是你們最大的之一。那麼，您現在是否知道教育在您的業務中所佔的比重？

And how do you see the outlook there? There have been some good tailwinds depending on product types from the education stimulus 3 years ago or maybe 70% of the way through that spend now. So how do you see that kind of tailing off? And what does it mean for your education vertical growth rates from here?

您如何看待那裡的前景？根據 3 年前的教育刺激計劃或現在的 70% 的教育刺激計劃的產品類型，出現了一些良好的推動力。那麼您如何看待這種衰退呢？這對你們的教育垂直成長率意味著什麼？

Yes. I think, Julian, when you look at our Americas business, we would say we're in the range around 45% of that business would be institutional. Institutional, of course, would be education, also health care, some government institution is in there. Education, K-12 and higher ed have been quite stable. I think when you see the things that Allegion invests, human capital as well as product investments in terms of helping drive safer schools it's, one, it's a really important mission. We're very active in the partner alliance for safe schools, advocate for proper standards, make sure people are aware and educated on proper standards.

是的。朱利安，我想，當你看看我們的美洲業務時，我們會說我們的業務中有 45% 左右是機構業務。制度當然是教育，還有醫療保健，一些政府機構在那裡。教育、K-12 和高等教育一直相當穩定。我認為，當你看到 Allegion 在幫助推動更安全的學校方面的投資、人力資本和產品投資時，你會發現，這是一項非常重要的使命。我們在安全學校合作夥伴聯盟中非常積極，倡導適當的標準，確保人們了解適當的標準並接受適當的標準教育。

And then yes, that is a substantial portion of our business. But 45% of Americas is institutional, it's a stable vertical. I think you can look around the country, you can see some big bond referendums lately. Those can lead sales by a year or 2 years or more in some cases. In any given year, certain portions of school budgets, of course, go to safety and security. And we want to make sure people understand proper standards and advocate for that.

是的，這是我們業務的很大一部分。但 45% 的美洲是機構性的，這是一個穩定的垂直領域。我想你可以環顧全國，你可以看到最近一些大型的債券公投。在某些情況下，這些可以使銷售額領先一年、兩年甚至更長。當然，在任何一年，學校預算的某些部分都會用於安全和安全。我們希望確保人們理解適當的標準並倡導這一點。

And if you recall, again, one of the products we highlighted at our Investor Day, the indication locks that just provide a visual indication of the lock status, critically important. We've got a great portfolio there, and that's continuing to drive value into that vertical. So I think stable would be the outlook that we would see kind of consistent with the Dodge starts chart that we showed you. I think in that low to mid-single-digit growth driver.

如果您再次回憶起我們在投資者日強調的產品之一，指示鎖僅提供鎖定狀態的視覺指示，這一點至關重要。我們在那裡擁有出色的產品組合，這將繼續推動該垂直領域的價值。因此，我認為穩定的前景將與我們向您展示的道奇起步圖表一致。我認為是低至中個位數的成長動力。

That's helpful. And just my second one would be following up on the operating margin outlook. So I just wanted to check, is the right way to think about it that you referenced that kind of 60 bps average on Slide 10 from price productivity inflation investment net. Is that really sort of the -- essentially the margin expansion guide for 2024 simplistically? And then we assume that things like mix and volume sort of netting off against each other? I just wanted to check that that's the right assumption. And any color you could give on the corporate cost outlook for the year.

這很有幫助。我的第二個目標是跟進營業利益率前景。所以我只是想檢查一下，您在投影片 10 上引用了價格生產力通膨投資淨值 60 個基點的平均值是否正確。這真的是 2024 年獲利擴張指南嗎？然後我們假設混音和音量之類的東西會相互抵消？我只是想檢查一下這個假設是否正確。以及您可以對今年的企業成本前景給出的任何顏色。

Yes. So as you know, Julian, we don't guide margins per se. However, we do give top line, bottom line, other estimates. So you can back into a margin rate. I think when Joe kind of talked to margin rates earlier in the call as well. From a business perspective, you can see corporate being flattish for us year-over-year. With that element, you can kind of back into the respective region margin rates. And the big driver to the expansion, like I mentioned earlier, is that price productivity in excess of investments and inflation. Lastly, you asked about mix. Historically, mix is not a huge mover of margin rates for us. They can move around a little but it's not something that drives significant changes in our margin profile for a full year.

是的。如你所知，朱利安，我們本身並沒有指導利潤。然而，我們確實給出了頂線、底線和其他估計值。這樣你就可以回到保證金費率。我想喬在電話會議早些時候也談到了保證金率。從業務角度來看，您可以看到我們的業務同比持平。有了這個元素，您就可以返回到相應區域的保證金率。正如我之前提到的，經濟擴張的主要動力是價格生產力超過投資和通貨膨脹。最後，你問到了混合的問題。從歷史上看，混合對我們來說並不是保證金率的巨大推動者。它們可能會略有變動，但這不會導致我們全年的利潤率發生重大變化。

The next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

I wanted to come back just to price volume, Mike, I think you said a good portion of organic growth was price generation. I guess is it safe to assume the volumes are assumed flat to maybe negative for the year? And then any context on the non-res versus resi volume outlook for this year as well?

我只想回到價格量，麥克，我想你說過有機成長的很大一部分是價格的產生。我想可以安全地假設今年的銷量持平甚至可能為負嗎？那麼今年的非再生能源與再生能源產量前景有何背景呢？

Yes. So as you know, Brett, we don't give subsegment outlooks of volume and pricing, especially on the pricing dynamic. Don't want to share that. In general, think of us as -- at that midpoint, this is a price driven outlook from actions that have already been announced in the marketplace. And then as markets -- if markets are better than we think, we're going to be able to participate in that upside if there is market upside from a volume perspective. And then I think that answers your question, there might have been another element if there is, just remind me.

是的。如你所知，布雷特，我們不會給出銷售和定價的細分前景，尤其是定價動態。不想分享這個。總的來說，我們認為——在這個中間點，這是市場上已經宣布的行動所帶來的價格驅動的前景。然後作為市場——如果市場比我們想像的要好，如果從成交量的角度來看市場有上漲空間，我們將能夠參與這個上漲過程。然後我認為這回答了你的問題，如果有的話，可能還有另一個因素，請提醒我。

Yes. And then maybe just shifting to the available cash flow. I think implicitly in that 90% ZIP code, but you did have some working capital draw down last year. Is that the right type of conversion you're thinking about? And then I guess what kind of leverage you back up to that kind of 95% to 100% historical range you guys have generated in the past?

是的。然後也許只是轉向可用的現金流。我認為這隱含在 90% 的郵遞區號中，但去年確實有一些營運資金減少。這是您正在考慮的正確轉換類型嗎？然後我猜你們過去產生的 95% 到 100% 的歷史範圍有什麼樣的槓桿？

Yes. So you got to look at it 1 or 2 ways, either on an adjusted basis of net income, adjusted net income or on the reported. On an adjusted basis, we're at that 90%, which is roughly historical, even a little better than historical, from a business, we have improved working capital in 2023. Expect that to continue in '24, really focused on the inventory front, where we're going to drive increased turns and be more efficient as we manage our inventory. But from a conversion perspective, roughly in line with historical performance.

是的。因此，您必須從一到兩種方式來看待它，要么根據調整後的淨利潤、調整後的淨利潤，要么根據報告。在調整後的基礎上，我們處於 90% 的水平，這大致是歷史水平，甚至比歷史水平要好一點，我們在 2023 年改善了營運資本。預計這種情況將在 24 年繼續下去，真正關注庫存前面，我們將在管理庫存時提高週轉率並提高效率。但從換算來看，大致符合歷史表現。

The next question comes from Tim Wojs with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Tim Wojs 和 Baird。

Maybe just first one, just on investments. I know you guys don't disclose the number anymore in the 10-Qs and the 10-Ks. But I was just kind of curious how you kind of frame go-forward investments in terms of the incremental dollars you'd spend in any given year if 2024 would be kind of assumed as a kind of a normal year or if there are some discrete investments around some of the software development and new products and things you want to call out?

也許只是第一個，只是關於投資。我知道你們不再在 10-Q 和 10-K 中透露這個數字。但我只是有點好奇，如果假設 2024 年是正常的一年，或者如果有一些離散的年份，那麼您如何根據在任何給定年份中花費的增量美元來構建未來投資圍繞一些軟體開發和新產品以及您想要提及的事情進行投資？

Tim, look for us to always continually invest in our portfolio and our business to drive organic growth, especially in software and electronics. That is something we've been talking about driving growth and investing in our business for a decade and expect that to continue.

提姆，希望我們始終不斷投資於我們的產品組合和業務，以推動有機成長，特別是在軟體和電子領域。這是我們十年來一直在談論的推動成長和投資於我們業務的事情，並期望這種情況能夠持續下去。

Okay. Okay. So no changes there. Okay. And then, Mike, you said that if the market was kind of better than you thought you'd be able to participate in some upside. But I guess, how would you frame your backlog kind of heading into '24 versus maybe a normal year? And if there was upside, where do you think the most likely source of that would come from?

好的。好的。所以那裡沒有變化。好的。然後，麥克，你說如果市場比你想像的要好一些，你就能夠參與一些上漲行情。但我想，與正常年份相比，您會如何設計進入 24 年的積壓工作？如果有好處，您認為最有可能的來源是哪裡？

As you know, Tim, we're a made-to-order business predominantly. We -- if you think about '21 backlogs, in '21, early '22, they got really extended because of our inability to ship efficiently. We're now back to that normal lead time book-and-ship business. So I would say it's a normal lead time for customers and our ability to serve them. And so backlog is not what it was 2 years ago when we were talking about extended backlogs and dissatisfied customers, right? It's about serving our customers, and I think we're doing a much better job today than a couple of years ago.

正如你所知，蒂姆，我們主要是一家定制企業。如果你考慮一下 21 年的積壓，在 21 年、22 年初，由於我們無法高效發貨，積壓的時間確實延長了。我們現在又回到了正常的交貨時間預訂和運輸業務。所以我想說，這對客戶來說是正常的交貨時間，也是我們為他們服務的能力。因此，積壓已經不再是兩年前我們談論的積壓時間延長和客戶不滿意的情況了，對嗎？這是為了服務我們的客戶，我認為我們今天的工作比幾年前要好得多。

Okay. And I guess if there's any source of upside, I mean, as you look at the business, where do you think that most likely come from?

好的。我想如果有任何上漲的來源，我的意思是，當你審視這項業務時，你認為這最有可能來自哪裡？

We talked about it as a company, where our outlook is. We see the stability in the institutional markets. Residential, we see as soft, right, if residential is better than we think, hey, we have a great brand, that Schlage brand, we'll be able to participate. But for right now, we see the strongest markets being the institutional and the nonres side, as we laid out in the prepared remarks.

我們作為一家公司討論了我們的前景。我們看到機構市場的穩定性。住宅，我們認為是軟的，對的，如果住宅比我們想像的更好，嘿，我們有一個偉大的品牌，即Schlage品牌，我們將能夠參與。但就目前而言，正如我們在準備好的評論中所述，我們認為最強勁的市場是機構市場和非機構市場。

The next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Can we just go back to International because I looked at my model, and it's quite fascinating, right? If you look at 2018, just year-over-year comps I think revenues have declined with the exception of 1 year very, very consistently, yet the margins are materially higher when they were back then sort of underscoring what you've said.

我們可以回到國際版嗎，因為我看了我的模型，它非常有趣，對嗎？如果你看看 2018 年，我認為除了一年之外，收入都非常非常一致地下降，但當時的利潤率卻大幅提高，這有點強調了你所說的。

So can you just give us a little bit more color because I think in the 10-K, you've also highlighted that portable securities, I think, dragging volumes in '23, and I thought that was mix, helpful to the mix in international. Can you just give us a little bit more color? Is it Europe? Is it Asia? Is it Australia and New Zealand? Is it Interflex? Because under the surface, something is going really, really well there. Just give us a little bit of color there over the long term.

所以你能給我們多一點顏色嗎，因為我認為在 10-K 中，你還強調了可移動證券，我認為，拖累了 23 年的交易量，我認為這是混合，有助於混合國際的。你能給我們多一點顏色嗎？是歐洲嗎？是亞洲嗎？是澳洲和紐西蘭嗎？是因特福萊克斯嗎？因為在表面之下，有些事情進展得非常非常順利。從長遠來看，只是給我們一點顏色。

Yes. Andrew, really appreciate the question and the chance to highlight what we feel is just outstanding performance by the Allegion international team. I think the soft points, certainly, China is still soft, particularly on the residential side of the market. That's all over the headlines, and we felt that too. Our exposure there is rather muted.

是的。 Andrew，非常感謝您提出這個問題，並有機會強調我們認為 Allegion 國際團隊的出色表現。我認為軟點，當然，中國仍然軟弱，特別是在住宅市場方面。這些都是頭條新聞，我們也有同樣的感覺。我們在那裡的曝光度相當低。

I would say we took some portfolio absence over time to just raise the overall portfolio quality of our international business. Our teams are executing very well on productivity in international despite rather soft mechanical volume markets. And then our electronics business, the SimonsVoss and the Interflex team have really come together extremely well. They're driving growth. They're driving margin expansion, finding new customers and then performing really, really well.

我想說，隨著時間的推移，我們採取了一些投資組合缺席的措施，以提高我們國際業務的整體投資組合品質。儘管機械銷售市場相當疲軟，但我們的團隊在國際上的生產力表現非常出色。我們的電子業務、SimonsVoss 和 Interflex 團隊確實非常融洽地結合在一起。他們正在推動成長。他們正在推動利潤率擴張，尋找新客戶，然後表現得非常非常好。

As one of the things that make us so excited about, the Boss Door Control acquisition. And while Mike indicated, it is rather small. It's strategically significant for us because it does help us get into more of that architect channel, more spec-driven business in the U.K. and excited about that potential from a strategic standpoint there. So I think -- the international team has been performing very well on portfolio, quality overall is better and execution by the team has been outstanding.

Boss Door Control 的收購是讓我們如此興奮的事情之一。儘管麥克表示，它相當小。這對我們來說具有戰略意義，因為它確實幫助我們進入更多的架構師管道、英國更多規範驅動的業務，並從戰略角度對那裡的潛力感到興奮。所以我認為──國際團隊在投資組合方面表現非常好，整體品質更好，團隊的執行力也非常出色。

I'll take that answer. And just to follow up on North American residential, when do you think just the volumes to bottom out? Is it a '24 event? Or is this sort of something beyond the scope of '24, volumes in North American resi?

我會接受這個答案。為了跟進北美住宅的情況，您認為銷售何時才會觸底？這是24年的活動嗎？或者說這超出了北美 Resi 24 卷的範圍？

So probably tough to call. I've seen others eager to call a bottom. I think our outlook contemplates a flat to slightly down end market. and that's what we see today. If there are any meaningful changes in interest rate environments that might be a spark that starts up secondary home sales. But I'd say we're going to remain cautious on our outlook for the residential segment in Americas.

所以可能很難打電話。我看到其他人渴望觸底。我認為我們的前景是終端市場持平或略有下降。這就是我們今天所看到的。如果利率環境發生任何有意義的變化，可能會成為二手房銷售的火花。但我想說，我們將對美洲住宅市場的前景保持謹慎。

If I could just squeeze one more in, sorry. Pricing has been very solid, particularly on a 2-year stack. Would you say that pricing has been stickier than you would have expected earlier in the year. If we would go back 12 months ago, would you say the pricing is stickier than you would have expected or about where you thought it would come out?

如果我能再擠進去一點的話，抱歉。定價非常穩定，尤其是 2 年套餐。您是否會說定價比您今年早些時候的預期更加黏性？如果我們回到 12 個月前，您會說定價比您預期的更粘，或者比您想像的要高嗎？

I would say this, Andrew. As you know, we price for value. We had significant inflation over a multiple year period, our industry puts in price increases. So it tends to lag a little some of the inflation dynamics. So you have to look at it on a multiyear basis. But in general, we price for value as a business and as an industry. And so pricing tends to be sticky. It's in list prices. And so from a dynamic, just don't forget, you have to look at the massive inflation we saw over a multiple year period and think of the pricing in that context.

我想說的是，安德魯。如您所知，我們按價值定價。我們多年來經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹，我們的行業導致價格上漲。因此，它往往會稍微滯後於一些通膨動態。所以你必須以多年為基礎來看待它。但總的來說，我們的定價是作為一個企業和一個產業的價值。因此定價往往具有黏性。這是標價。因此，從動態角度來看，不要忘記，你必須關注我們在多年期間看到的大規模通膨，並考慮這種背景下的定價。

The next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

John, I believe in the prepared remarks, you talked about how Allegion is a very late-cycle business and starts can lead the company by more than 12 months. So when -- and I know, I guess, Americas nonres has stayed organic positive, but the growth has decelerated a lot here over the last 2 to 3 quarters. But starts only really came down maybe 2 quarters ago. So when we see that deceleration or softening in the non-res Americas growth rate, is it fair to assume that that's really just been the channel destock and any sort of cycle pressure that could come from those starts is still on the horizon? Just any way to help think about that.

John，我相信在準備好的發言中，您談到了 Allegion 是一家週期非常晚的企業，並且啟動後可以領先公司 12 個月以上。因此，我知道，我猜，美洲的非收入一直保持積極的有機增長，但在過去 2 到 3 個季度中增長大幅放緩。但開工率真正下降大約是在兩個季度前。因此，當我們看到美洲非資源成長率減速或疲軟時，是否可以公平地假設這實際上只是渠道去庫存以及這些開始可能帶來的任何形式的周期壓力仍然存在？只要有任何方法可以幫助思考這一點。

Yes. It's a fair set of questions there. I think the channel destock, that was, in our opinion, a rather unique and temporary phenomenon that just happened because of all the supply chain disruptions and the lead times got extended and backlogs got extended and ordering patterns were disrupted. I think you saw that manifest itself in late 2022 through about mid '23. We feel like most of that is in the rearview for the industry.

是的。這是一系列公平的問題。我認為，在我們看來，渠道去庫存是一種相當獨特和暫時的現象，它的發生是因為所有供應鏈中斷、交貨時間延長、積壓訂單延長以及訂購模式被打亂。我認為您在 2022 年末到 23 年中期左右就看到了這一點。我們覺得大部分都已成為業界的後視鏡。

In fact, published lead times from Allegion, from our couple of key large competitors are largely back in line with what you would expect. Book and ship business, like Mike was saying earlier. And so I think the vertical mix has been rather volatile. The institutional segment is stable, but the commercial vertical mix has been a bit volatile, right, with office being soft, multifamily was very strong.

事實上，Allegion 和我們的幾個主要大型競爭對手公佈的交貨時間基本上與您的預期一致。預訂和船舶業務，就像麥克之前所說的那樣。所以我認為垂直組合相當不穩定。機構部門穩定，但商業垂直組合有點波動，對吧，辦公大樓疲軟，多戶住宅非常強勁。

Multifamily has been softer a little bit. Data centers have been extremely robust. Warehouses have now been very weak. So you have to kind of disaggregate to see the drivers and then reaggregate to see the total outlook that we're contemplating here for 2024, where we would still say low to mid-single-digit growth for the non-res part of our business.

多戶型住宅的情況稍微溫和一點。數據中心非常強大。倉庫現在非常弱。因此，你必須進行分類才能看到驅動因素，然後重新聚合才能看到我們在這裡考慮的 2024 年總體前景，我們仍然認為我們業務的非資源部分將實現低至中個位數的成長。

I appreciate that. And maybe just a follow-up on Americas margins, up about 200 basis points this year in the absence of volume growth. So it's really supportive. And I understand that price cost is recovering and productivity is getting better. But I guess my question is, is it getting increasingly difficult? Or is there a point where you guys kind of run up on a glass ceiling there in Americas margins until maybe the cycle gives you enough to start driving positive volume growth at some point in the coming quarters?

我很感激。也許只是美洲利潤率的後續行動，在銷量沒有成長的情況下，今年利潤率上漲了約 200 個基點。所以真的很支持。據我所知，價格成本正在恢復，生產力正在提高。但我想我的問題是，它變得越來越困難了嗎？或者，你們在美洲的利潤率是否會達到一個玻璃天花板，直到這個週期足以讓你們在未來幾季的某個時候開始推動銷售的正成長？

Yes, Chris. Clearly, there was some catch up this year. As I mentioned earlier, the inflation was before the pricing, a few questions ago. When we think about this business though, I think it's important to understand, we had some challenges operationally over the last few years as well that started to get better in '23.

是的，克里斯。顯然，今年出現了一些追趕。正如我之前提到的，通貨膨脹發生在定價之前，幾個問題之前。不過，當我們考慮這項業務時，我認為了解這一點很重要，過去幾年我們在營運上也遇到了一些挑戰，這些挑戰在 23 年開始好轉。

And for '24, we should be more efficient and more productive as well. So it's not just the pricing element, you will see in '24, an acceleration of productivity, which should give us some tailwinds for margins. But if you think long term, clearly, long term, you have to have some volume growth to drive margin expansion. But for the 24 'year, you will see us operate more efficiently and accelerate productivity to help drive that margin expansion.

對於 24 世紀，我們也應該更有效率、更有生產力。因此，這不僅僅是定價因素，您將在 24 年看到生產力的加速，這應該會為我們的利潤帶來一些推動力。但如果你從長遠考慮，明確地，長期考慮，你必須有一定的銷售成長來推動利潤率的擴張。但在 24 年裡，您將看到我們的營運效率更高，生產力更高，有助於推動利潤率擴張。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stone, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回總裁兼執行長約翰·斯通 (John Stone) 發表閉幕詞。

So thanks, everyone, for a great Q&A, I think when you look back on 2024 a year from now, we expect you'll see an organization that delivered on margins and continue to show proof points on organic growth and capital allocation, along with continuing to drive forward our strategy on seamless access.

因此，謝謝大家精彩的問答，我認為當您一年後回顧 2024 年時，我們預計您會看到一個實現利潤率增長並繼續在有機增長和資本配置方面展示證據的組織，以及繼續推進我們的無縫存取戰略。

I think you'll see we're making the right investments to reinforce our strategy and reward our shareholders through balanced and consistent capital allocation. Thank you very much. Be safe. Be healthy.

我想你會看到我們正在做出正確的投資，以加強我們的策略，並透過平衡和一致的資本配置來回報我們的股東。非常感謝。注意安全。健康。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。