安朗杰 (ALLE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Allegion Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Martineau, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Allegion 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Tom Martineau。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Allegion's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are John Stone, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Wagnes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allegion.

謝謝你，傑森。大家，早安。感謝您參加我們的 Allegion 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官約翰斯通； Allegion 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Wagnes。

Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and the presentation, which we will refer to in today's call, are available on our website at investor.allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website. Please go to Slides 2 and 3.

我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告和我們將在今天的電話會議中提到的演示文稿可在我們的網站 investor.allegion.com 上找到。此通話將被記錄並存檔在我們的網站上。請轉到幻燈片 2 和 3。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議上發表的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出的。請參閱我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預測存在重大差異的一些因素的描述。公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details.

今天的介紹和評論包括非 GAAP 財務指標。有關詳細信息，請參閱我們新聞稿中財務表中的調節表。

Before I turn the call over to John, I have a couple of announcements to share. Kevin Sawyer, who has been Allegion's Director of Investor Relations for the past 6 years has been promoted to the role of Finance Director of our Commercial Americas business. This is a fantastic role for Kevin who will now serve as our senior finance leader for that business. And I want to express my thanks and appreciation for all of Kevin's support.

在我將電話轉給約翰之前，我有幾條公告要分享。過去 6 年一直擔任 Allegion 投資者關係總監的 Kevin Sawyer 已晉升為我們商業美洲業務的財務總監。這對 Kevin 來說是一個了不起的角色，他現在將擔任該業務的高級財務主管。我想對凱文的所有支持表示感謝和讚賞。

I'm also pleased to announce the promotion of Jobi Coyle to the Director of Investor Relations role. Most recently, Jobi has been leading our Americas home finance organization. Effective today, Jobi is the primary contact for our Investor Relations office. I will continue to lead the Investor Relations function.

我也很高興地宣布 Jobi Coyle 晉升為投資者關係總監一職。最近，喬比一直在領導我們的美洲家庭金融組織。從今天開始，Jobi 是我們投資者關係辦公室的主要聯繫人。我將繼續領導投資者關係部門。

I would also like to share that Allegion will be hosting a 2023 Investor and Analyst Day on May 2 of this year. The event will be at our Carmel, Indiana facility, which is in the North Indianapolis Metro area. A webcast option will also be available. Look for more details as we get closer to the event.

我還想分享一下，Allegion 將於今年 5 月 2 日舉辦 2023 年投資者和分析師日。該活動將在我們位於印第安納波利斯北部都會區的印第安納州卡梅爾工廠舉行。還將提供網絡廣播選項。隨著我們越來越接近事件，尋找更多細節。

John and Mike will now discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results as well as provide an outlook for 2023, which will be followed by a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now I'd like to turn the call over to John.

約翰和邁克現在將討論我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績，並提供 2023 年的展望，隨後將舉行問答環節。 （接線員說明）現在我想把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Tom, and let's go to Slide 4. And first off, congratulations to Kevin, and welcome to Jobi. Allegion delivered another outstanding quarter of operational performance. As we look at market dynamics, we continue to see strong demand in the Americas nonresidential segments as well as global electronics. Residential markets continue to be soft with new construction slowing due to inflation and higher interest rates. International end markets are softening as a result of macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

謝謝，Tom，讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。首先，祝賀 Kevin，歡迎來到 Jobi。 Allegion 又交付了一個出色的季度運營業績。在我們觀察市場動態時，我們繼續看到美洲非住宅領域以及全球電子產品的強勁需求。由於通貨膨脹和利率上升，新建築放緩，住宅市場繼續疲軟。由於宏觀經濟和地緣政治條件，國際終端市場正在走軟。

Our engineering redesigns and alternate supply actions are delivering results and lead times are normalizing on our mechanical products. We're seeing continued improvement in electronic supply, although it's still short of the very strong market demand we're seeing for our products. Price, productivity and inflation dynamic was positive again this quarter on both a dollar and a margin basis as we continue to combat inflation with pricing actions across products and channels.

我們的工程重新設計和替代供應行動正在交付成果，我們的機械產品的交貨時間正在正常化。我們看到電子供應在持續改善，儘管它仍然不能滿足我們對我們的產品所看到的非常強勁的市場需求。隨著我們繼續通過跨產品和渠道的定價行動來對抗通貨膨脹，本季度價格、生產率和通貨膨脹動態在美元和利潤基礎上再次呈現積極態勢。

Consistent and efficient available cash flow generation remains a focus for our company. In 2022, we made the decision to protect our customers by investing in inventory, which resulted in a short-term increase in working capital. We're also accelerating certain strategic capital investments to deliver future growth. As a result, available cash flow in 2022 was less than expected.

持續有效地產生可用現金流量仍然是我們公司的重點。 2022 年，我們決定通過投資庫存來保護我們的客戶，這導致營運資金短期增加。我們還在加速某些戰略資本投資，以實現未來增長。因此，2022 年的可用現金流量低於預期。

Lastly, to our 2023 outlook, which I'll speak to in more detail later in the presentation, shows revenue growth of 9% to 10.5% with organic growth of 2.5% to 4.5%. Adjusted EPS on a recast basis will be up 5% to 9%. Mike will provide details on the recast in a few minutes.

最後，我們的 2023 年展望顯示收入增長 9% 至 10.5%，有機增長 2.5% 至 4.5%，我將在稍後的演講中詳細介紹。調整後的每股收益將增長 5% 至 9%。邁克將在幾分鐘內提供有關重鑄的詳細信息。

Let's go to Slide 5. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $861.5 million, an increase of 21.5% compared to 2021. Organic revenue growth was 11.4%. The organic growth was driven by strong price realization across the portfolio and favorable volume in the Americas nonresidential business, offsetting weakness experienced in the Americas residential and international businesses.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5。第四季度的收入為 8.615 億美元，比 2021 年增長 21.5%。有機收入增長 11.4%。有機增長是由整個投資組合的強勁價格實現和美洲非住宅業務的有利銷量推動的，抵消了美洲住宅和國際業務的疲軟。

The Access Technologies acquisition contributed approximately 14% to total growth and currency impacts remain a headwind. Adjusted operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 310 basis points each in the fourth quarter. The increases were attributable to favorable price, productivity and inflation dynamic, positive business mix, along with volume leverage associated with the Americas nonresidential growth.

收購 Access Technologies 對總增長貢獻了約 14%，貨幣影響仍然是不利因素。調整後的營業利潤率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在第四季度各增長了 310 個基點。增長歸因於有利的價格、生產力和通貨膨脹動態、積極的業務組合，以及與美洲非住宅增長相關的數量槓桿。

These factors more than offset the expected margin dilution related to Access Technologies. Excluding the Access Technologies business, adjusted operating income margins were up 430 basis points. Adjusted EPS of $1.60 increased $0.49 or approximately 44% versus the prior year. Strong operational performance more than offset the unfavorable impact of higher interest expense and supported continued investments for growth.

這些因素足以抵消與 Access Technologies 相關的預期利潤率攤薄。不包括 Access Technologies 業務，調整後的營業收入利潤率上升了 430 個基點。調整後的每股收益為 1.60 美元，較上年增加 0.49 美元或約 44%。強勁的運營業績足以抵消較高利息支出的不利影響，並支持持續投資以促進增長。

Please go to Slide 6. Building greater supply chain resiliency remains a focus for Allegion from redesigning our products to dual sourcing, we've taken the right actions to strengthen our company and capabilities over the past couple of years. Today, this work continues as we are adding a 350,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Central Mexico. This operation will boost in-region production for our Americas business with core activities like stamping, plating, die cast and assembly.

請轉到幻燈片 6。建立更大的供應鏈彈性仍然是 Allegion 的重點，從重新設計我們的產品到雙重採購，我們在過去幾年中採取了正確的行動來加強我們的公司和能力。今天，隨著我們在墨西哥中部增加一個 350,000 平方英尺的製造工廠，這項工作仍在繼續。該業務將通過沖壓、電鍍、壓鑄和裝配等核心活動促進我們美洲業務的區域內生產。

Strategically, this new operation will increase our supply chain resiliency in a number of ways. The plant will be vertically integrated as we will now build components and products in-house that were previously sourced. At the same time, we're driving more efficiency in our supply chain, increasing manufacturing capacity and improving our future cost position. Production is expected to get started later this year, and we could not be more excited about this strategic investment. Mike will now walk you through the financial results, and I'll be back to discuss our 2023 outlook.

從戰略上講，這項新業務將以多種方式提高我們供應鏈的彈性。該工廠將垂直整合，因為我們現在將在內部製造以前採購的組件和產品。與此同時，我們正在提高供應鏈的效率，提高製造能力並改善我們未來的成本狀況。預計將於今年晚些時候開始生產，我們對這項戰略投資感到無比興奮。邁克現在將向您介紹財務結果，我將回來討論我們的 2023 年展望。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Please go to Slide #7. This slide reflects our earnings per share reconciliation for the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2021, reported earnings per share was $1.26, adjusting down $0.15 per share for a noncash gain on an investment remeasurement offset by charges related to restructuring M&A and debt refinancing costs, the 2021 adjusted earnings per share was $1.11.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。請轉到幻燈片#7。這張幻燈片反映了我們第四季度的每股收益對賬。 2021 年第四季度，報告的每股收益為 1.26 美元，因投資重新計量的非現金收益被重組併購和債務再融資成本相關費用抵消後每股收益下調 0.15 美元，2021 年調整後每股收益為 1.11 美元。

Operational results were very strong in the current quarter, adding $0.48 per share, reflecting 43.2% growth. This was driven by double-digit organic growth, favorable operating leverage and positive business mix, which more than offset currency headwinds. Access Technologies delivered $0.08 to earnings per share as operational results of $0.12 per share were offset by $0.04 of intangible amortization expense.

本季度的經營業績非常強勁，每股增加 0.48 美元，增長 43.2%。這是由兩位數的有機增長、有利的經營槓桿和積極的業務組合推動的，這些都抵消了貨幣逆風。 Access Technologies 的每股收益為 0.08 美元，因為每股 0.12 美元的經營業績被 0.04 美元的無形攤銷費用所抵消。

We are pleased with the performance of Access Technologies in the first 6 months as the business results were in line with our expectations. A lower year-over-year tax rate increased earnings by $0.04 and favorable share count added another $0.03. Interest expense reduced earnings per share by $0.10, primarily driven by increased debt to finance the acquisition of Access Technologies.

我們對 Access Technologies 在前 6 個月的表現感到滿意，因為業務結果符合我們的預期。較低的同比稅率使收益增加了 0.04 美元，有利的股票數量又增加了 0.03 美元。利息支出使每股收益減少 0.10 美元，這主要是由於為收購 Access Technologies 融資而增加的債務。

We continue to invest in the long-term strategy of the business, resulting in a $0.04 earnings per share headwind. This resulted in the fourth quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, an increase of $0.49 or 44.1% compared to the prior year. Lastly, we have a $0.07 per share reduction from adjusted EPS to arrive at reported EPS.

我們繼續投資於業務的長期戰略，導致每股收益 0.04 美元的逆風。這導致 2022 年第四季度調整後每股收益為 1.60 美元，比上年增加 0.49 美元或 44.1%。最後，我們從調整後的每股收益中減少了 0.07 美元，以得出報告的每股收益。

This reduction is primarily attributed to M&A and additional noncash purchase accounting items related to the acquisition of Access Technologies. After giving effect to these items, you arrive at a fourth quarter 2022 reported earnings per share of $1.53. Of note, starting in 2023, we are making a change to our adjusted operating income, earnings and EPS to exclude amortization expense related to acquired intangible assets. This change is based on the noncash nature of those expenses and supports our growth strategy.

這一減少主要歸因於併購和與收購 Access Technologies 相關的其他非現金采購會計項目。使這些項目生效後，您將得出 2022 年第四季度報告的每股收益 1.53 美元。值得注意的是，從 2023 年開始，我們將調整調整後的營業收入、收益和每股收益，以排除與收購的無形資產相關的攤銷費用。這一變化基於這些費用的非現金性質，並支持我們的增長戰略。

Please go to Slide #8. This slide depicts our components of our revenue growth for the fourth quarter as well as the full year. As indicated, we experienced 11.4% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by price across all segments. Volume growth in the Americas mostly offset declines in the international region. Net acquisitions and divestitures delivered 13.4% growth driven by Access Technologies.

請轉到幻燈片#8。這張幻燈片描述了我們第四季度和全年收入增長的組成部分。如前所述，在所有細分市場的價格推動下，我們在第四季度經歷了 11.4% 的有機收入增長。美洲的銷量增長主要抵消了國際地區的銷量下降。在 Access Technologies 的推動下，淨收購和資產剝離實現了 13.4% 的增長。

Currency pressures continued to be a headwind, primarily impacting our Allegion International segment bringing the total reported growth to 21.5% in the quarter. For the full year, you could see the total revenue was up 14.1% with organic revenue growth of 10.7%. Both segments grew organically for the year, led by Allegion Americas, which grew 14.4%.

貨幣壓力繼續成為不利因素，主要影響我們的 Allegion International 部門，使本季度報告的總增長率達到 21.5%。對於全年，您可以看到總收入增長了 14.1%，有機收入增長了 10.7%。在 Allegion Americas 的帶動下，這兩個部門在這一年實現了有機增長，增長了 14.4%。

Please go to Slide #9. Fourth quarter revenues for the Americas segment was $683.9 million, up 36.9% on a reported basis and up 18% organically. Price realization remains strong in both our residential and nonresidential businesses offsetting ongoing inflationary pressure. In nonresidential, we continue to see strong volume growth that when coupled with price, drove organic growth in the mid-20s percent.

請轉到幻燈片#9。美洲部門第四季度的收入為 6.839 億美元，按報告基礎增長 36.9%，有機增長 18%。我們的住宅和非住宅業務的價格實現仍然強勁，抵消了持續的通脹壓力。在非住宅領域，我們繼續看到強勁的銷量增長，再加上價格，推動了 20% 左右的有機增長。

Residential was up low single digits with favorable price being offset by lower volumes. Electronics revenue was up approximately 50% for the quarter as we compare against supply chain headwinds in the prior year. Full year electronics growth was approximately 20% as our engineering and supply chain actions are yielding good results.

住宅以低個位數上漲，優惠的價格被較低的銷量所抵消。與去年供應鏈逆風相比，本季度電子產品收入增長了約 50%。由於我們的工程和供應鏈行動取得了良好的成果，全年電子產品增長約為 20%。

We are pleased with the ongoing Access Technologies integration and results. This business contributed nearly 20% to the Americas reported growth number. Americas adjusted operating income of $164.4 million increased 55.8% versus the prior year period while adjusted operating margins and adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter were up 290 and 320 basis points, respectively.

我們對正在進行的 Access Technologies 集成和結果感到滿意。該業務對美洲報告的增長數字貢獻了近 20%。美洲調整後營業收入為 1.644 億美元，較上年同期增長 55.8%，而本季度調整後營業利潤率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別上升 290 和 320 個基點。

Excluding Access Technologies, the business drove a 530 basis point improvement in operating margins versus the prior year. Pricing productivity in excess of inflation along with volume leverage on America's nonresidential business and positive mix contributed to the margin improvement.

不包括 Access Technologies，該業務使營業利潤率比上一年提高了 530 個基點。超過通貨膨脹率的定價生產率以及美國非住宅業務的數量槓桿和積極的組合促成了利潤率的提高。

Please go to Slide #10. The Fourth quarter revenue for our Allegion International segment was $177.6 million, down 15.3% on a reported basis and down 4.3% organically. In the quarter, strong price realization was more than offset by lower volumes attributed to softening end markets. Notably, the demand for our electronic and software solutions remain stable.

請轉到幻燈片#10。我們 Allegion 國際部門第四季度的收入為 1.776 億美元，按報告基礎下降 15.3%，有機下降 4.3%。在本季度，強勁的價格實現被終端市場疲軟導致的銷量下降所抵消。值得注意的是，對我們的電子和軟件解決方案的需求保持穩定。

Currency headwinds persisted this quarter and reduced reported revenues by 9.9%. International adjusted operating income of $23.3 million decreased 20.7% versus the prior year period. Compared to 2021, adjusted operating margins and adjusted EBITDA margins decreased 90 basis points each. The margin decline was driven by reduced volumes and FX pressure, which more than offset the favorable impact of the combination of price, productivity and inflation.

本季度貨幣逆風持續存在，報告的收入減少了 9.9%。國際調整後營業收入為 2330 萬美元，較上年同期下降 20.7%。與 2021 年相比，調整後的營業利潤率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率分別下降了 90 個基點。利潤率下降的原因是銷量下降和匯率壓力，這大大抵消了價格、生產率和通貨膨脹共同帶來的有利影響。

Please go to Slide #11. Available cash flow for 2022 came in at $395.5 million, down $47.7 million versus the prior year. This reduction is driven by higher capital expenditures as well as increases in working capital. Given the inconsistencies in the supply chain and component availability, we increased inventory to protect our customers in 2022. When combined with the added working capital of the Access Technologies acquisition, there is an increase in working capital as a percent of revenue. We expect this to improve in 2023 as supply chains disruptions moderate.

請轉到幻燈片#11。 2022 年的可用現金流為 3.955 億美元，比上年減少 4770 萬美元。這種減少是由更高的資本支出以及營運資本的增加推動的。鑑於供應鍊和組件可用性的不一致，我們在 2022 年增加了庫存以保護我們的客戶。結合收購 Access Technologies 增加的營運資金，營運資金佔收入的百分比有所增加。我們預計隨著供應鏈中斷的緩和，這種情況將在 2023 年得到改善。

Capital expenditures as a percent of revenue also increased as we made strategic investments to drive future growth and improve supply chain resiliency like our new production facility in Central Mexico mentioned earlier. The last chart on the slide shows our net leverage. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased from 1.7x in 2021 to 3.3x following the Access Technologies acquisition.

資本支出佔收入的百分比也有所增加，因為我們進行了戰略投資以推動未來增長並提高供應鏈彈性，例如我們前面提到的墨西哥中部的新生產設施。幻燈片上的最後一張圖表顯示了我們的淨槓桿率。在收購 Access Technologies 後，淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率從 2021 年的 1.7 倍增加到 3.3 倍。

We have quickly delevered post acquisition and are down to 2.5x as of the end of the year. The business continues to generate strong cash flow, providing the opportunity for capital deployment with a focus on organic investment and acquisitions. Previously, our Board declared a dividend increase of approximately 10% in the dividend payable in March. I will now hand it back over to John for our 2023 outlook.

我們在收購後迅速去槓桿化，截至年底已降至 2.5 倍。該業務繼續產生強勁的現金流，為以有機投資和收購為重點的資本部署提供了機會。此前，我們的董事會宣布將 3 月份的應付股息增加約 10%。我現在將把它交還給約翰，了解我們 2023 年的展望。

Thanks, Mike. Let's go to Slide 12 and take a look at full year 2023 outlook. In the Americas, we expect to see total growth in the low to mid-teens with organic growth being approximately 4% to 6%. Electronics growth is expected to be strong as we've made significant progress working through supply chain challenges and demand and our backlogs remain robust. We do, however, expect some choppiness of component supply to continue throughout 2023.

謝謝，邁克。讓我們轉到幻燈片 12，看看 2023 年全年展望。在美洲，我們預計總增長率將達到 15% 左右，有機增長率約為 4% 至 6%。由於我們在應對供應鏈挑戰和需求方面取得了重大進展，並且我們的積壓訂單仍然強勁，因此預計電子產品增長將強勁。然而，我們確實預計整個 2023 年零部件供應將繼續出現一些波動。

Nonresidential market demand in the Americas continues to be strong heading into the year. We expect growth in the mid- to high teens for our nonres business, inclusive of our Access Technologies acquisition and high single digits organically. Given the strength we saw in the second half of 2022, we expect stronger growth in the first half with moderated growth in the second half, up against tougher comps.

美洲的非住宅市場需求在今年繼續保持強勁。我們預計我們的 nonres 業務將在中高位增長，包括我們對 Access Technologies 的收購和高個位數的有機增長。鑑於我們在 2022 年下半年看到的強勁勢頭，我們預計上半年的增長將更加強勁，下半年的增長將放緩，而競爭將更加艱難。

As communicated last quarter, residential markets have softened. We expect our residential business to be down slightly, driven by the slowdown of single-family new construction. In the International segment, we expect relatively flat revenue as end markets continue to soften driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. We project total revenue for international to be in the minus 1% to plus 1% range with organic revenue between minus 2% and flat.

正如上個季度所傳達的那樣，住宅市場已經走軟。我們預計我們的住宅業務將在單戶新建築放緩的推動下略有下降。在國際業務方面，我們預計隨著終端市場在宏觀經濟和地緣政治因素的推動下繼續走軟，收入將相對持平。我們預計國際總收入在負 1% 到正 1% 之間，有機收入在負 2% 和持平之間。

All in for the company, we are projecting total revenue to be up between 9% and 10.5%, organic revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5%. Our 2023 outlook for adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $6.30 and $6.50. This is inclusive of the reporting change effective January 1 of this year to exclude all acquisition-related amortization.

總而言之，我們預計總收入將增長 9% 至 10.5%，有機收入增長 2.5% 至 4.5%。我們對 2023 年調整後每股收益的展望預計在 6.30 美元至 6.50 美元之間。這包括自今年 1 月 1 日起生效的報告變更，以排除所有與收購相關的攤銷。

Adjusted operational earnings are expected to increase 9% to 12%, driven by volume leverage and price and productivity exceeding inflation and investments. Interest is expected to be around a $0.24 per share headwind, reflecting a full year of acquisition-related borrowings and increases to variable interest rates. Tax is expected to be a $0.20 headwind and other income is expected to be around a $0.05 headwind.

調整後的運營收益預計將增長 9% 至 12%，這主要受數量槓桿、價格和生產率超過通貨膨脹和投資的推動。預計利息約為每股 0.24 美元的逆風，反映了全年與收購相關的借款和浮動利率的增加。稅收預計會帶來 0.20 美元的阻力，其他收入預計會受到 0.05 美元左右的阻力。

The outlook assumes approximately $0.20 per share for costs related to restructuring and M&A and amortization expense related to acquired backlog. In addition, it excludes approximately $0.40 per share for acquired intangible asset amortization. As a result, reported EPS is projected to be between $5.70 and $5.90.

展望假設與重組和併購相關的成本以及與收購積壓相關的攤銷費用約為每股 0.20 美元。此外，它不包括每股約 0.40 美元的收購無形資產攤銷。因此，報告的每股收益預計在 5.70 美元至 5.90 美元之間。

Lastly, we're expecting available cash flow for 2023 to be in the $470 million to $490 million range.

最後，我們預計 2023 年的可用現金流量將在 4.7 億美元至 4.9 億美元之間。

Let's go to Slide 13. So in summary, we delivered significant growth in the fourth quarter, and we expect to see continued growth into 2023. Our electronic solutions are well received in the market, we continue to see very strong demand and we expect this to be a long-term growth driver for our company. As a late-cycle business, the Allegion Americas nonresidential market demand is solid. We're well positioned for 2023.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 13。總而言之，我們在第四季度實現了顯著增長，我們預計到 2023 年將繼續增長。我們的電子解決方案在市場上廣受好評，我們繼續看到非常強勁的需求，我們預計這一點成為我們公司的長期增長動力。作為後期業務，Allegion Americas 的非住宅市場需求強勁。我們為 2023 年做好了準備。

We're excited about a full year with Access Technologies and love the recurring service aspect of that business. Operating margins have been improving, and we expect that trend to continue into 2023. We are accelerating investments in new product development, software capabilities and supply chain resiliency, all of which support the health of our business and the creation of long-term shareholder value.

我們很高興與 Access Technologies 一起度過整整一年，並且喜歡該業務的經常性服務方面。營業利潤率一直在提高，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2023 年。我們正在加快對新產品開發、軟件能力和供應鏈彈性的投資，所有這些都支持我們業務的健康發展和長期股東價值的創造.

Overall, the entire team at Allegion, along with our distribution partners had a great finish to 2022, and we're headed into 2023 with the right velocity and momentum. With that, we're happy to turn to Q&A.

總體而言，Allegion 的整個團隊以及我們的分銷合作夥伴在 2022 年取得了圓滿的成績，我們將以正確的速度和勢頭進入 2023 年。有了這個，我們很高興轉向問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Joe O'Dea。

I wanted to -- just wanted to start on sort of Americas nonres end markets trends you've seen sort of in the year-end, and beginning of this year. If you could talk about color across verticals, I think seeing sort of ABI sub-50 for 4 months, looks like Dodge momentum remains pretty strong. I think we're hearing about some mix toward bigger projects. So just kind of what you're seeing kind of institutional side, commercial side with visibility into 2023.

我想 - 只是想從你在年底和今年年初看到的某種美洲非資源終端市場趨勢開始。如果你能談論垂直領域的顏色，我認為 ABI 連續 4 個月低於 50，看起來道奇的勢頭仍然非常強勁。我認為我們正在聽說一些針對更大項目的組合。因此，您所看到的就是機構方面、商業方面以及 2023 年的可見性。

Yes, that's the right question, Joe. Thank you very much. This is John. What I would say is probably we're seeing the same trends on ABI as you are, and that would tend to telegraph what the market's doing 9 to 12 months from now. So we're watching that, of course, very carefully. I would say the present situation right now is there is a lot of construction activity going on. And we're pretty heavy institutional. And so what we see is, if you look at things like the association of building contractors, construction backlog, while it's sequentially down just a little bit, it's still looking at historical trends quite elevated, which means there's a lot of activity. And that index, I would tell you is quite consistent with what we hear from our distribution partners. It's what we're hearing from our folks out in the regional sales offices that there is a lot of project business out there, and we feel very well positioned to capture it.

是的，這是正確的問題，喬。非常感謝。這是約翰。我想說的是，我們可能在 ABI 上看到了與您相同的趨勢，這往往會預示 9 到 12 個月後市場的走勢。所以我們當然會非常仔細地觀察它。我想說現在的情況是有很多建築活動正在進行。而且我們的製度性很強。所以我們看到的是，如果你看一下建築承包商協會、建築積壓等事情，雖然它連續下降了一點點，但它的歷史趨勢仍然相當高，這意味著有很多活動。我會告訴你，這個指數與我們從分銷合作夥伴那裡聽到的非常一致。這是我們從區域銷售辦事處的人員那裡聽到的，那裡有很多項目業務，我們感覺非常有能力抓住它。

That's helpful. And then just wanted to touch on growth investments in 2023, just from a capability and end market perspective, where some of those growth investments are focused?

這很有幫助。然後只是想談談 2023 年的增長投資，只是從能力和終端市場的角度來看，其中一些增長投資的重點是什麼？

Yes. So really good question. We'll take an organic angle at it first. And I would say we feel like we're a leader in electromechanical products. So continuing to invest on the R&D side in those products and those capabilities, continue to build that portfolio. You saw -- I hope you saw in January, we did close on our acquisition of Plano in Germany, kind of building more of our Software-as-a-Service business there in the International segment. And I think you can continue to expect us to be more acquisitive in the future. I think that's definitely something we're interested in. Pipeline feels pretty good. But of course, these things are rather episodic in nature. So we take it as the right asset comes available at the right price.

是的。真是個好問題。我們首先從一個有機的角度來看。我想說我們感覺自己是機電產品的領導者。因此，繼續在這些產品和功能的研發方面進行投資，繼續構建該產品組合。你看到了——我希望你在 1 月份看到，我們確實完成了對德國 Plano 的收購，在國際領域建立了更多的軟件即服務業務。而且我認為你可以繼續期待我們在未來更加積極進取。我認為這絕對是我們感興趣的東西。管道感覺很好。但是，當然，這些事情本質上是偶發的。因此，我們將其視為以合適的價格提供合適的資產。

I would take you back to in the deck the facility that we're building in Central Mexico. That's essentially in-sourcing and near-shoring previously sourced product. And that facility has a lot of expansion capability to it. So as we ramp up production there, we'll have a better cost position on some of our mechanical products and then future products to be built there yet to be seen. But I think we're quite excited about that from an organic growth perspective as well.

我會帶你回到甲板上我們正在墨西哥中部建造的設施。這本質上是內包和近岸外包以前採購的產品。該設施具有很大的擴展能力。因此，隨著我們在那裡提高產量，我們將在某些機械產品上擁有更好的成本定位，然後在那裡建造的未來產品還有待觀察。但我認為，從有機增長的角度來看，我們也對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe Ritchie. My first question is on the residential pricing. It looks like this quarter, pricing was basically offset by volume. If you can provide some color on how the realized pricing is progressing, especially on the big box side of the business? And how should we think about 2023 here as we think about pricing?

我是喬·里奇的 Vivek Srivastava。我的第一個問題是關於住宅定價。看起來這個季度，定價基本上被銷量所抵消。您是否可以提供一些有關已實現定價進展情況的顏色，尤其是在業務的大盒子方面？在考慮定價時，我們應該如何考慮 2023 年？

Yes. Thanks for the question. As you think about our residential business historically, say, before 2022, we've struggled to get price in residential, and we made it our focus area to drive pricing due to all the inflationary pressures we had. We had the strongest price realization, I can recall in my decade-plus here in residential in 2022. And we expect to see price realization next year as well. So as we deal with inflationary pressures, look for us to combat that with pricing, and we've had significant progress in that area across the entire portfolio in 2022, moving into 2023, we expect that to continue.

是的。謝謝你的問題。當你從歷史上考慮我們的住宅業務時，比如說，在 2022 年之前，我們一直在努力獲得住宅價格，並且由於我們面臨的所有通脹壓力，我們將其作為推動定價的重點領域。我們有最強勁的價格實現，我可以回想起我在 2022 年的十年多來的住宅。我們預計明年也能看到價格實現。因此，在我們應對通脹壓力時，我們希望通過定價來應對通脹壓力，我們在 2022 年整個投資組合的這一領域取得了重大進展，進入 2023 年，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。

That's great to hear. And maybe just a follow-up there, especially on the -- any destock risk on the residential side? Any -- has any of the destock happened already? Or do you expect some in 2023?

聽到這個消息我很高興。也許只是那裡的後續行動，尤其是在住宅方面有任何去庫存風險嗎？任何 - 是否已經發生任何去庫存？還是您預計 2023 年會有一些？

So I think -- this is John. Kind of 2 things going on there in that channel. I think on the mechanical side, again, you heard earlier in the call, our lead times are essentially back to normal. So book and ship business, retail point-of-sale pull-through. Certainly, on a volume basis, particularly on the mechanical side, it's a little softer. There is no doubt. On the electronics side, again, demand is very strong. Backlogs are still elevated. And in all honesty, we still have -- by historical values, we still have shelf space to fill with electronic products, both on the commercial side and the residential side. So I think there's -- again, electronics will continue to be a growth driver for the company in all segments.

所以我想——這是約翰。在那個頻道裡發生了兩件事。我認為在機械方面，您在早些時候的電話中再次聽到，我們的交貨時間基本上恢復正常。因此，預訂和發貨業務、零售銷售點都是直通式的。當然，在體積的基礎上，特別是在機械方面，它更柔和一些。毫無疑問。在電子產品方面，需求同樣非常強勁。積壓仍然很高。老實說，根據歷史價值，我們仍然有貨架空間來裝滿電子產品，無論是在商業方面還是在住宅方面。所以我認為 - 再次，電子產品將繼續成為公司所有領域的增長動力。

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey from Mizuho Americas.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho Americas 的 Brett Linzey。

I just wanted to come back to the pricing discussion. Mike, I think you touched on pricing expectations for residential. But thinking more broadly about the portfolio and actions into 2023. How are you thinking about additional pricing for this year? And then specifically, within the whole framework, what do you think it for price realization this year?

我只想回到定價討論。邁克，我想你談到了住宅的定價預期。但更廣泛地考慮到 2023 年的投資組合和行動。你如何考慮今年的額外定價？那麼具體來說，在整個框架內，你認為今年的價格變現如何？

Brett, as we've talked over time, we're committed to fight that inflationary pressure we see. We expect price realization -- substantial price realization in 2023 such that, that price, productivity, inflation and investment dynamic is a net positive. You've heard me talk about this for at least 6 months now. We've made good momentum in '22, and we're set up nicely for '23 such that we have a net positive of those 4 characteristics or those 4 items.

布雷特，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們致力於與我們看到的通貨膨脹壓力作鬥爭。我們預計價格實現——2023 年價格大幅實現，這樣價格、生產率、通貨膨脹和投資動態都是積極的。你已經聽我談論這個至少 6 個月了。我們在 22 年取得了良好的勢頭，我們為 23 年做好了準備，因此我們對這 4 個特徵或 4 個項目有淨積極影響。

Okay. Got it. And just wanted to follow up on the Mexico facility for stamping, plating, et cetera. In terms of identifiable paybacks, how are you thinking about the potential cost savings as you look into '24 and '25? or what that payback might look like?

好的。知道了。只是想跟進墨西哥的沖壓、電鍍等設施。就可識別的回報而言，您如何看待 24 年和 25 年的潛在成本節約？或者回報可能是什麼樣的？

Yes. It's the right question. I think payback is going to be pretty quick. I mean, these are high-volume products and the cost reduction that we're looking at is substantial. I'm not going to give you the exact down to the penny number, but it's substantial. And we see, because of that, a favorable impact on margins and a favorable impact on market share in those segments. It's -- we're quite excited about getting this facility ramped up.

是的。這是正確的問題。我認為回報會很快。我的意思是，這些是大批量產品，我們正在尋找的成本降低是可觀的。我不會給你精確到一分錢的數字，但它是可觀的。因此，我們看到對這些細分市場的利潤率和市場份額產生有利影響。它是 - 我們很高興能夠提升這個設施。

And Brad, just to add, if you think about 2023 because the facility is going to come online later in the year, that margin benefit and that cost benefit, that's more of a '24, '25 benefit. If you think about '23, think of there is some investment in start-up costs as you bring a new facility up and running during the year, but this is a great long-term investment like John mentioned. So I just wanted to add that color.

布拉德補充說，如果你考慮 2023 年，因為該設施將在今年晚些時候上線，那麼利潤收益和成本收益更像是 24、25 年的收益。如果您考慮 23 年，請考慮在這一年中啟動和運行新設施時對啟動成本的一些投資，但這是一項很棒的長期投資，就像約翰提到的那樣。所以我只想添加那種顏色。

Our next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

I just wanted to continue on the pricing. And in response to the last couple of questions. You made it very clear that you're pushing much harder on pricing. But can we just talk about that in terms of price cost expectations and what you've got reflected in your full year guidance? Maybe talk about how that should phase over the 4 quarters.

我只是想繼續定價。並回答最後幾個問題。您非常清楚地表明您正在更加努力地推動定價。但我們能否就價格成本預期以及您在全年指導中反映的內容進行討論？也許談談這應該如何在 4 個季度內分階段進行。

Yes. As you think about it for next year, definitely positive. Obviously, price cost will be better in the first half because of the prior year comparable. And then if you think about quarters, we try not to guide quarters. But think of it as price cost inflation and investments, this is a net positive for us moving forward. We fell behind last year, right, in 2021. '22, we caught up, we made some positive traction at the end of the year, and now we're set up nicely moving forward and expect this dynamic to continue to be positive.

是的。當你考慮明年的時候，絕對是積極的。顯然，上半年價格成本會好於上年可比。然後，如果您考慮宿舍，我們盡量不指導宿舍。但將其視為價格成本通脹和投資，這對我們前進來說是一個淨積極因素。去年我們落後了，對，在 2021 年。'22，我們趕上了，我們在年底取得了一些積極的牽引力，現在我們已經準備好向前邁進，並希望這種動力繼續保持積極。

Good. Just as a follow-up, I guess, maybe talk about Access Technologies and maybe the progress to date? And how are you reflecting that acquisition in your 2023 growth and margin guidance?

好的。作為後續行動，我想，也許可以談談 Access Technologies 以及迄今為止的進展？您如何在 2023 年的增長和利潤率指引中反映此次收購？

So if you look at the first half of the year, that would be considered inorganic growth. And so on the slide in the presentation, we show a delta between reported inorganic for the Americas, that inorganic would be Access Tech. The back half of the year, it will be part of organic growth and is included in that nonresidential number John mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks. So it's a combination of both the first half is that inorganic growth.

因此，如果你看一下今年上半年，那將被視為無機增長。因此，在演示文稿的幻燈片上，我們展示了美洲報告的無機物之間的差異，即無機物將是 Access Tech。今年下半年，它將成為有機增長的一部分，並包含在約翰在準備好的發言中早些時候提到的非住宅數字中。因此，上半年兩者的結合是無機增長。

Yes. Strategically, David, it's a great fit. We've retained the key talent. We've retained the key customers. We're working very, very hard on getting these automatic doors into this very powerful Allegion spec engine. That team is super excited to be here. We're super excited to have him. And again, you've got a very robust recurring service business as a part of that acquisition that we're really excited about.

是的。從戰略上講，大衛，這非常合適。我們留住了關鍵人才。我們保留了關鍵客戶。我們正在非常非常努力地將這些自動門加入到這個非常強大的 Allegion 規格引擎中。該團隊非常高興來到這裡。我們非常高興能擁有他。再一次，作為我們非常興奮的收購的一部分，你有一個非常強大的經常性服務業務。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Just a couple for me, if I could. Just first, back to price cost and everybody has asked the question a couple of times. But I just want to be clear really on your volume expectations for the year. It would seem we could get to or pretty close to your organic revenue growth just on carryover price. And the fact that I would think you've also got some positive mix effects on revenue as electronics ramps up. So perhaps you could just give us a little bit more color on what you're expecting for volumes for the year.

如果可以的話，只給我一對。首先，回到價格成本，每個人都問過幾次這個問題。但我只想真正明確您對今年的銷量預期。看起來我們可以僅憑結轉價格就可以達到或非常接近您的有機收入增長。事實上，我認為隨著電子產品的興起，你也會對收入產生一些積極的混合影響。所以也許你可以給我們更多關於你對今年銷量的期望的顏色。

Yes. Jeff, if you think of the nonresidential business in the Americas, still going to see volume growth, good end markets. If you think about international and residential, they're a little softer. So think of any form of growth coming more from the price there, all in weighted more towards pricing like you suggested than volume. But the nonres side and electronics, that's where the volume growth will be driven.

是的。傑夫，如果你想到美洲的非住宅業務，仍然會看到銷量增長，良好的終端市場。如果您考慮國際和住宅，它們會更柔和一些。所以想一想任何形式的增長更多地來自那裡的價格，所有這些都像你建議的那樣更傾向於定價而不是數量。但非資源方面和電子產品將推動銷量增長。

Great. And then actually, I just wanted to ask a little bit of a philosophical question about going to (inaudible) I agree it's the right thing to do, ultimately, particularly given a lot of other folks do it. But the main premise of it is, right, that amortization is noncash. So when I go to adjusted EPS, my earnings and my cash flow are then, in fact, similar, right? And the EPS is kind of an economic number. You're only going to convert at about 85% free cash flow to adjusted net income this year according to your guide. Do you -- and it's certainly understandable supply chain inventories elevated and the like. But do you see those numbers converging over time? And getting the organization to, I don't know, 95% to 100% conversion to adjusted net income.

偉大的。然後實際上，我只是想問一些關於去（聽不清）的哲學問題，我同意這是正確的事情，最終，特別是考慮到很多其他人都這樣做。但它的主要前提是，攤銷是非現金的。所以當我去調整後的每股收益時，我的收入和現金流實際上是相似的，對吧？每股收益是一種經濟數字。根據您的指南，您今年只能將大約 85% 的自由現金流轉換為調整後的淨收入。你 - 這當然是可以理解的供應鏈庫存升高等等。但是你看到這些數字隨著時間的推移而趨同了嗎？讓組織，我不知道，95% 到 100% 轉換為調整後的淨收入。

Yes. So Jeff, historically, when we looked at it at reported net income, that was in the low 90s based on the current guide on the reported net income, it's mid-90s. I would say, longer term, we do expect it to be better. We do have an increase in capital expenditures this year. So if you think of depreciation versus CapEx, CapEx is elevated. Think of it as 2.5% plus of revenue. We're building a new facility. That's not something we do every single day. So it is a little lighter because a higher level of CapEx. But longer term, think of us as focusing on, especially as we make M&A, the cash returns of these acquisitions. We've been talking about Access Tech for almost a year now. And it's -- the ability to drive cash earnings from those acquisitions rather than a noncash charge.

是的。所以傑夫，從歷史上看，當我們查看報告的淨收入時，根據當前報告的淨收入指南，它處於 90 年代的低位，它是 90 年代中期。我會說，從長遠來看，我們確實希望它會更好。今年我們的資本支出確實有所增加。因此，如果您將折舊與資本支出放在一起考慮，資本支出就會升高。將其視為收入的 2.5% 以上。我們正在建造一個新設施。這不是我們每天都做的事情。所以它有點輕，因為更高水平的資本支出。但從長遠來看，認為我們專注於這些收購的現金回報，尤其是在我們進行併購時。我們談論 Access Tech 已經將近一年了。它是——從這些收購中獲得現金收入而不是非現金費用的能力。

The next question comes from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

I want to follow up on the previous question around the Americas organic growth guide of 4% to 6%. Can you just, I guess, specifically talk about the split between volume and price within that? Because my math is kind of similar to Jeff. It feels like Americas could get there on just wrap around price alone, and it sounds like there is scope for incremental price as well.

我想跟進之前關於美洲有機增長指南 4% 到 6% 的問題。我想，你能具體談談其中的量價比嗎？因為我的數學有點像傑夫。感覺美洲只要圍繞價格就可以到達那裡，而且聽起來也有增加價格的空間。

Yes. So when you think about 2023 and pricing. Clearly, we had good momentum coming into the year. We have more pricing than volume growth. Residential is when you build your models, don't forget, starts have been down considerably there in the residential space. So residential volume is going to be more challenged, right? So overall, the volume growth coming from nonres in the total segment, I don't want to give subsegment targets for volume versus price. But I would just say the total segment is more pricing than volume when you build your models.

是的。因此，當您考慮 2023 年和定價時。顯然，我們在進入這一年時勢頭良好。我們的定價多於銷量增長。住宅是當你建造你的模型時，別忘了，住宅空間的開始已經大大下降了。所以住宅容量將面臨更大的挑戰，對吧？因此，總的來說，整個細分市場中來自非資源的銷量增長，我不想給出銷量與價格的子細分市場目標。但我只想說，當您構建模型時，總細分市場的價格高於數量。

I appreciate that. And then maybe for my follow-up, just around the cadence of America's organic growth as the year goes on. So it certainly feels like organic growth in the first half of the year will be stronger in the back half, just on the easier price comps. But could you just provide some more color on that trajectory? And does the guidance imply that Q4 will be negative organic for the Americas?

我很感激。然後也許對於我的後續行動，隨著時間的推移，圍繞著美國有機增長的節奏。因此，肯定感覺上半年的有機增長在下半年會更強勁，只是價格比較容易。但是你能在那個軌跡上提供更多的顏色嗎？該指南是否暗示第四季度對美洲的有機影響是負面的？

Yes. So if you look at our history, we're not going to guide quarters. I would say this 2022 very back-end loaded. Our historical norms for the Americas is probably more indicative of what you think 2023 would look like from a percent of the total. As a result, you'll see more revenue growth in the first half than the second half, but we do expect to see growth in the back half of the year.

是的。因此，如果您查看我們的歷史，就會發現我們不會指導宿舍。我會說這個 2022 非常後端加載。我們對美洲的歷史規範可能更能說明您認為 2023 年佔總數的百分比。因此，上半年的收入增長將超過下半年，但我們確實預計下半年會出現增長。

The next question comes from Tim Wojs from Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Tim Wojs。

Maybe just on backlog. Just maybe if you can give us a little bit of flavor for where backlog is maybe versus a year ago? And I know there's some noise in there just from the supply chain kind of constraints. But just maybe any color on the trajectory of that backlog through the year would be helpful.

也許只是積壓。也許你能給我們一些關於積壓與一年前相比的情況的信息嗎？而且我知道那裡有一些來自供應鏈限制的噪音。但也許在這一年中積壓的軌跡上的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. So Tim, we ended last year very elevated backlogs, especially in electronics and mechanical. That's 2021. If you think about '22, we worked through the excess mechanical backlog such that lead times are normal. Demand is good, lead times are normal. So it's where we want to be from a health of a business. If you think of electronics, electronics does have elevated backlogs at the end of 2022, which is attributable to both supply challenges, but as well as really strong demand. And so we do have elevated backlogs in electronics, which will give us tailwinds for both '23 and frankly, '24. This is a long-term trend moving for us.

是的。所以蒂姆，我們去年結束了非常高的積壓，特別是在電子和機械方面。那是 2021 年。想想 22 年，我們解決了過多的機械積壓問題，因此交貨時間是正常的。需求良好，交貨期正常。因此，這就是我們希望從健康的企業中獲得的地方。如果你想到電子產品，到 2022 年底電子產品確實有大量積壓，這既是供應挑戰的原因，也是強勁需求的原因。因此，我們在電子產品方面的積壓確實有所增加，這將為我們提供 23 年和坦率地說 24 年的順風。這對我們來說是一個長期趨勢。

Okay. Okay. So it sounds like you've burnt off most of the kind of buildup from '21 and now it's just stronger demand.

好的。好的。所以聽起來你已經燒掉了 21 年以來的大部分積累，現在只是更強勁的需求。

On the mechanical side, yes. Right.

在機械方面，是的。正確的。

Yes. Okay. Okay. Got you. And then John, maybe just bigger picture. I mean, you've been CEO now for 6 to 9 months. And now that you've gotten maybe a little bit more settle into role. Just maybe some color on any potential strategic changes or tweaks that you think you might make with the business going forward.

是的。好的。好的。明白了然後約翰，也許只是更大的圖景。我的意思是，你擔任 CEO 已有 6 到 9 個月了。現在您可能已經更加適應角色了。也許只是對您認為隨著業務的發展可能做出的任何潛在戰略變化或調整的一些顏色。

Yes, absolutely. I think these last 2 quarters, it's really been a pleasure being here, working with the Allegion team and working with these distribution partners out there. I think what you should see is a lot of the things that built Allegion's reputation since spin of outstanding operational execution, year-over-year expanding margins. Those kind of things will continue. What we're looking to do is continue to orient the company towards growth and allocate capital towards growth. That means driving organic growth. That means continue to look for us and expect us to be acquisitive and really leading with our technology. Allegion's got a fabulous electromechanical portfolio. We've got extremely talented engineers. We feel like we're a leader in that space, and we'll continue to be a leader in that space. So organic growth, inorganic growth through M&A, I think that's what you need to expect us to layer on top of the operational excellence that you're used to from Allegion. And this year-on-year ability to drive above-market growth and continue to expand margins.

是的，一點沒錯。我認為在過去的兩個季度裡，很高興來到這裡，與 Allegion 團隊一起工作，並與那裡的這些分銷合作夥伴一起工作。我認為你應該看到的是自出色的運營執行、逐年擴大的利潤率以來建立 Allegion 聲譽的很多事情。這樣的事情還會繼續下去。我們希望做的是繼續將公司定位於增長並將資本分配給增長。這意味著推動有機增長。這意味著繼續尋找我們，並期望我們能夠收購併真正領先於我們的技術。 Allegion 擁有出色的機電產品組合。我們擁有非常有才華的工程師。我們覺得自己是該領域的領導者，而且我們將繼續成為該領域的領導者。因此，通過併購實現有機增長、無機增長，我認為這就是您需要期望我們在您習慣於從 Allegion 獲得的卓越運營之上疊加的東西。並且這種同比能力能夠推動高於市場的增長並繼續擴大利潤率。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So John, you talked a few times about the visibility in the non-res business, particularly on electronics with the elevated backlog. Just wondering if you could give us sort of any view on where backlog levels stand? Or how you think about conversion or something like book-to-bill in the framework this year?

所以約翰，你多次談到非資源業務的可見性，特別是在積壓量增加的電子產品方面。只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於積壓水平的看法？或者您如何看待今年框架中的轉換或諸如預訂到賬單之類的事情？

Yes. So I think, again, on the mechanical side of the portfolio, we're -- you put air quotes around it back to what you would expect a book and ship business. So very efficient, very lean book-and-ship business. Electronics demand is still very, very strong, and that's globally. And supply limited is still where we are. We've got -- and I think quarter-to-quarter, month-to-month made continuous progress on that. And that's why you see the kind of year-over-year growth numbers that you've seen in Q3, Q4 of '22. We're very bullish on that portfolio, and we're continuing to invest and refresh the products. So we do expect demand to continue to remain strong. We do expect conversion and adoption to continue to grow. That being said, of course, there are parts of a building.

是的。所以我再次認為，在投資組合的機械方面，我們 - 你將它周圍的空氣報價放回到你對書籍和船舶業務的期望。非常高效、非常精簡的預訂和發貨業務。電子產品的需求仍然非常非常強勁，而且是全球性的。供應有限仍然是我們所在的地方。我們已經 - 我認為每個季度，每個月都在這方面取得了持續的進展。這就是為什麼你會看到你在 22 年第三季度、第四季度看到的那種同比增長數字。我們非常看好該產品組合，我們將繼續投資和更新產品。因此，我們確實預計需求將繼續保持強勁。我們確實希望轉化率和採用率繼續增長。話雖這麼說，當然，建築物的一部分。

There are parts of Allegion's portfolio that will never be electrified. So it doesn't just go from some state to 100% electric. But electronics will continue to be a double-digit growth driver for the company and that gives us a pretty interesting avenue to continue to build out Software-as-a-Service, like you see with our Interflex and our Plano acquisition. So I'd say, again, look for us to continue to be acquisitive and build on this advantage that we feel we've got with the electronic products.

Allegion 的部分產品組合永遠不會電氣化。所以它不只是從某個狀態到 100% 電動。但電子產品將繼續成為公司兩位數增長的驅動力，這為我們提供了一個非常有趣的途徑來繼續構建軟件即服務，就像您在我們的 Interflex 和 Plano 收購中看到的那樣。所以我要說，再一次，尋找我們繼續收購併建立我們認為我們在電子產品方面的優勢。

Got it. That's helpful. Looking forward to hearing more about that at the Investor Day as well. On the margin guide in the Americas or I guess implicit in the guide overall, how do we think about sort of what's an easy comp and timing elements around things like either price/cost or miss shipments, productivity versus just kind of volume leverage. Is there any way you guys would sort of break down those buckets of what just comes from kind of the absence of the bad guys versus some of this healthy mix, price/cost, some of the other things you're talking about.

知道了。這很有幫助。也期待在投資者日聽到更多相關信息。在美洲的保證金指南上，或者我想在整個指南中隱含著，我們如何考慮圍繞價格/成本或錯過發貨、生產率與數量槓桿等因素進行簡單的競爭和時間安排。你們有沒有什麼辦法可以將壞人的缺席與這種健康的組合、價格/成本以及你們正在談論的其他一些事情相比較。

Yes, Josh. Clearly, first half, we're going to see more margin expansion due to the easier comp. Look for us, though, for all quarters to be driving pricing and productivity in excess of that inflation and investment number on a dollar basis. And when you think about expansion, Americas margin expansion will be more front half loaded year-over-year.

是的，喬希。顯然，上半年，由於比較容易，我們將看到更多的利潤率擴張。不過，請注意我們所有季度都在推動定價和生產率超過以美元計算的通脹和投資數字。當你考慮擴張時，美洲的利潤率擴張將比去年同期更多。

The next question comes from Ryan Merkel from William Blair.

下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Ryan Merkel。

I wanted to pick up on the electronics demand. Can you just talk about some of the key drivers is the strength in both resi and commercial? And then what are the features and benefits that are really resonating with customers?

我想了解電子產品的需求。您能否談談一些關鍵驅動因素是 resi 和商業方面的實力？那麼真正引起客戶共鳴的功能和優勢是什麼？

Yes, it's a great question. Maybe start with residential. I think the rise of the mega-tech, smart home ecosystems, the 2 most popular products that you find connected to those systems would be thermostats and locks. People might do other things, but those 2 fundamental elements seem like the most popular. The functionality you get with a phone connected to your smart -- excuse me, a phone connected to your lock, the visibility of the state of that lock the peace of mind aspect that, that gives you, I think that's quite attractive to a lot of folks. On the nonres side, it's -- I mean, this is a B2B environment. So here, you're talking about like real economic value add for the end user.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。也許從住宅開始。我認為，隨著超級科技、智能家居生態系統的興起，您發現與這些系統相連的兩種最受歡迎 的產品將是恆溫器和鎖。人們可能會做其他事情，但這兩個基本要素似乎是最受歡迎的。將手機連接到您的智能手機獲得的功能 - 對不起，手機連接到您的鎖，鎖狀態的可見性讓您安心，我認為這對很多人來說非常有吸引力的人。在非資源方面，我的意思是，這是一個 B2B 環境。所以在這裡，你談論的是為最終用戶增加的實際經濟價值。

So think about a multifamily residential setting, an apartment complex rather than the landlord managing and swapping out metal keys. You can do this all digitally now with digital credentials, mobile credentials. It's just -- there is operating cost savings there that will continue to drive adoption in spaces like that. So -- on the nonres side, this is real economic benefits that are delivered over time. Residential side, peace of mind, visibility, higher tech connected to my smart home, et cetera. Those trends are, I think, still in the early stages of a traditional S-curve of adoption and a nice long runway ahead of us.

因此，想想多戶住宅環境，一個公寓大樓，而不是房東管理和更換金屬鑰匙。您現在可以使用數字憑證、移動憑證以數字方式完成這一切。只是 - 那裡節省了運營成本，這將繼續推動在這樣的空間中採用。所以 - 在非資源方面，這是隨著時間的推移交付的實際經濟利益。住宅方面，安心，可見性，連接到我的智能家居的高科技等等。我認為，這些趨勢仍處於傳統 S 曲線採用的早期階段，我們前面還有很長的路要走。

That's helpful. And then on supply chain, just where are the pinch points in electronics? Do you have any visibility to when that improves and the investment in working capital. Is that primarily in electronics?

這很有幫助。然後在供應鏈上，電子產品的關鍵點在哪裡？您是否了解何時改善以及對營運資金的投資。這主要是在電子產品中嗎？

So the supply chain, the way I described it last quarter, the same way I'll describe it this quarter of a year ago. We had 50 suppliers on the delinquent list that was shutting our assembly lines down on any given day. Today, that number is down to a handful, 3 or 4. So that's the order of magnitude of improvement. The constraint is the semiconductors themselves, microprocessors in particular. And it's just been a matter of the industrial Internet of Things, that space has had extremely strong demand, while you've probably seen news headlines and other things about some foundries or chip manufacturers seeing softening demand. That's from things like consumer goods and mobile phones, these much smaller, much more advanced, much more expensive chips. But these chips that hit the sweet spot of cost and power and performance for the industrial IoT, which is like what we use in our products.

所以供應鏈，我上個季度描述的方式，和我一年前這個季度描述的方式一樣。我們的拖欠名單上有 50 家供應商，它們在任何一天都會關閉我們的裝配線。今天，這個數字已經下降到少數幾個，3 或 4 個。這就是改進的數量級。制約因素是半導體本身，尤其是微處理器。這只是工業物聯網的問題，這個領域的需求非常強勁，而你可能已經看到新聞頭條和其他關於一些鑄造廠或芯片製造商看到需求疲軟的事情。這是來自消費品和手機等產品，這些芯片更小、更先進、更昂貴。但是這些芯片達到了工業物聯網成本、功率和性能的最佳點，就像我們在我們的產品中使用的一樣。

That demand has still outstripped supply and capacity all the way back to the foundries. We've been working very closely to do a couple of things. One would be expand the quantity of supply that's been improving. The other thing has also improved the visibility and the linearity of deliveries. So then our factories can run a bit more efficiently and we can bring our lead times down. So it goes all the way back to the semiconductor itself, and that's the value chain we're trying to work through and continue to make improvements. And we're happy with the improvement so far, but we're still supply constrained versus very strong demand.

一直到鑄造廠，這種需求仍然超過供應和產能。我們一直在密切合作做幾件事。一種是擴大一直在改善的供應量。另一件事也提高了交付的可見性和線性。這樣我們的工廠就可以更有效地運行，我們可以縮短交貨時間。所以它一直回到半導體本身，這就是我們正在努力解決並繼續改進的價值鏈。我們對到目前為止的改善感到滿意，但我們仍然受到供應限製而不是非常強勁的需求。

The next question comes from Brian Ruttenbur from Imperial Capital -- I'm sorry, Brian Ruttenbur from Imperial Capital.

下一個問題來自 Imperial Capital 的 Brian Ruttenbur -- 對不起，來自 Imperial Capital 的 Brian Ruttenbur。

So one other question on the residential side in 2023. It looks like it's going to be driven by pricing. Can you talk a little bit about -- you say it's primarily driven by pricing. Will volumes actually be down? And could they be down 2% to 3%, 4% or 5% and you still hit that -- your goals for 2023 on the residential side?

那麼 2023 年住宅方面的另一個問題。看起來它將由定價驅動。你能談談嗎——你說這主要是由定價驅動的。成交量真的會下降嗎？他們是否可以下降 2% 至 3%、4% 或 5% 而您仍然達到這個目標——您 2023 年在住宅方面的目標？

Yes. Brian, I really don't want to give the subcomponents for res, nonres, but if you think about it, I would say you're approximating a reasonable outlook for res in that it's going to be price driven and that volume will be challenged. But I don't want to give individual components between res and non-res.

是的。布賴恩，我真的不想給出 res、nonres 的子組件，但如果你考慮一下，我會說你對 res 的合理前景很接近，因為它將由價格驅動，而且數量將受到挑戰.但我不想在 res 和 non-res 之間給出單獨的組件。

Okay. And then along those same lines, have you experienced on the residential side or even the international side, any debooking in the fourth quarter where you've just heard about some debooking in the residential side, and I didn't want to -- kind of get your color on that, if there's been any debooking and you've seen a recovery post fourth quarter?

好的。然後沿著同樣的思路，你是否經歷過住宅方面甚至國際方面的任何取消預訂，你剛剛聽說住宅方面有一些取消預訂，我不想 - 客氣的得到你的顏色，如果有任何取消預訂並且你看到第四季度後的複蘇？

If you think about our residential business, electronics, clearly, there's shelf space to be filled, as John talked about. On the mechanical side, what we have seen is slowing there akin to the overall numbers we talked about residential. As far as debookings, we have not seen a lot of cancellations from customers more think of it as slowing down in the consumer making purchases there.

如果你想想我們的住宅業務，電子產品，很明顯，正如約翰所說，有貨架空間需要填補。在機械方面，我們看到的速度正在放緩，類似於我們談到的住宅總體數字。就取消預訂而言，我們沒有看到很多客戶取消預訂，更多的是認為這是消費者在那裡購物的速度放緩。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Stone for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 John Stone 作閉幕詞。

Thanks very much. So to wrap up, what you heard today, Allegion Americas nonresidential demand remains robust. Global electronics demand remains very strong. Our supply chains are improving, and our products are very well received in the market. Access Technologies acquisition is continuing to perform very well. We, along with our distribution partners had a great finish to 2022 and feel that we're favorably positioned for 2023. Thank you very much for joining the call, and have a great day.

非常感謝。總而言之，您今天聽到的是，Allegion Americas 的非住宅需求依然強勁。全球電子產品需求依然強勁。我們的供應鏈正在改善，我們的產品在市場上很受歡迎。 Access Technologies 的收購繼續表現良好。我們和我們的分銷合作夥伴在 2022 年取得了很好的成績，並認為我們在 2023 年處於有利位置。非常感謝您加入電話會議，祝您今天愉快。

Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。