Allstate Corp (ALL) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's second-quarter earnings investor call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded.

大家好，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 Allstate 第二季財報投資人電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒您，本次通話將被錄音。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人，投資人關係主管 Allister Gobin。先生，請開始。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Allstate's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Today, our management team will discuss how Allstate is creating shareholder value. Then we will open up the line for your questions.

各位早安。歡迎參加 Allstate 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。昨天在收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿與投資人補充資料，並將相關材料上傳至我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com。今天，我們的管理團隊將說明 Allstate 如何創造股東價值。接著我們將開放電話線路供各位提問。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will include non-GAAP measures for which reconciliations are provided in the news release and the investor supplement. We will make forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Actual results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 2025 10-K and other public filings for more information on potential risks.

如簡報第一張投影片所述，我們的討論將包含非 GAAP 指標，相關調節表已載於新聞稿與投資人補充資料中。我們將就 Allstate 的營運發表前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異，請參閱我們的 2025 年 10-K 及其他公開申報文件，以取得潛在風險的更多資訊。

And now, I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在，我把時間交給 Tom。

Good morning. Thank you for investing time in Allstate. Before we begin, I'd like to welcome Chris Lown, who joined Allstate this week as Chief Financial Officer. He's an excellent addition to the Allstate team. You can look forward to hearing from him on the next call.

各位早安。感謝您撥冗關注並投資 Allstate。在開始之前，我想歡迎 Chris Lown，他本週加入 Allstate 擔任財務長。他是 Allstate 團隊非常出色的新成員。各位可以期待在下一次電話會議聽到他的分享。

We've chosen not to put him in the middle of heat with like two days' work. I'd also like to thank John for doing triple duty, leading Investments, Strategy and being Interim Chief Financial Officer.

我們選擇不讓他在只工作兩天的情況下就置身於火線之中。我也要感謝 John 一人身兼三職，領導投資、策略，並擔任代理財務長。

Let's begin on slide 2. Allstate's strategy is to increase Property-Liability market share and expand the protection we provide to customers by offering affordable, simple and connected products through an extensive distribution network. Shareholder value is created through operational excellence, which generates attractive returns on capital; sustainable growth through the Property-Liability Transformative Growth initiative and expanded protection; capital generation, which funds organic growth, enables us to optimize risk-adjusted investment returns, pursue acquisitions and provide significant cash to shareholders.

我們從第 2 張投影片開始。Allstate 的策略是提高財產與責任保險（Property-Liability）市占率，並透過廣泛的通路網路，提供價格可負擔、簡單且互聯的產品，以擴大我們為客戶提供的保障。股東價值來自營運卓越，進而產生具吸引力的資本報酬；透過財產與責任保險的「轉型式成長」（Transformative Growth）計畫與擴大保障所帶來的永續成長；以及資本創造能力，用以支持內生成長、使我們得以最佳化風險調整後的投資報酬、推動併購，並向股東提供可觀的現金回饋。

Let's review second-quarter results on slide 3. Overall, Allstate increased Property-Liability growth and generated exceptional earnings. Starting with growth. Total revenues grew to $18.6 billion, up 11.8% from the second quarter of 2025. Net premiums written increased 2.6%, which was supported by continued growth in auto and homeowners insurance and a 9.9% increase in issued applications.

我們在第 3 張投影片回顧第二季業績。整體而言，Allstate 提升了財產與責任保險的成長並創造了卓越獲利。先從成長談起。總營收成長至 186 億美元，較 2025 年第二季增加 11.8%。簽單保費（Net premiums written）增加 2.6%，主要受惠於汽車與住宅保險持續成長，以及核發申請件數增加 9.9%。

Total policies in force increased 3.8% to 215.9 million. That reflects 2.6% growth in Property-Liability and 4.1% growth in Protection Services. Net investment income increased 33.8% to $1 billion, reflects lengthening of the duration last year, a larger portfolio and increased performance-based income.

在保單數（Total policies in force）增加 3.8% 至 2.159 億張。其中反映財產與責任保險成長 2.6%，以及保障服務（Protection Services）成長 4.1%。淨投資收益增加 33.8% 至 10 億美元，反映去年拉長存續期間、投資組合規模擴大，以及績效型收入增加。

The increase in public equity investments last year also generated significant capital gains, which raised net income. The Property-Liability combined ratio was 4.5 points improved to 86.6%, while the underlying combined ratio was 79.4%, in line with the prior year quarter.

去年提高公開股權投資比重也帶來可觀的資本利得，推升淨利。財產與責任保險綜合率改善 4.5 個百分點至 86.6%，而基礎綜合率為 79.4%，與去年同期一致。

Net income was $3.2 billion, and adjusted net income was $2.3 billion or $8.99 a share. For the first half of the year, adjusted net income was $5.1 billion or $19.65 per share. Adjusted net income return on equity is 44.2% over the last 12 months.

淨利為 32 億美元，調整後淨利為 23 億美元，或每股 8.99 美元。今年上半年，調整後淨利為 51 億美元，或每股 19.65 美元。過去 12 個月調整後淨利股東權益報酬率為 44.2%。

Slide 4 provides a construct for our detailed discussion of results. This year's growth and earnings are the result of operational excellence. Auto and homeowners insurance combined ratios are significantly better than the industry, which reflects precise pricing, expense control and claims expertise. These capabilities also enable us to rapidly adapt to changes in external environment and competition.

第 4 張投影片提供我們深入討論業績的架構。今年的成長與獲利來自營運卓越。汽車與住宅保險綜合率顯著優於同業，反映精準定價、費用控管與理賠專業能力。這些能力也使我們能快速因應外部環境與競爭變化。

Our investment expertise generates first and second quartile results. All of this requires a highly sophisticated technology and analytics platform. Value is also created through sustainable growth. The Transformative Growth initiative is resulting in market share growth in auto and homeowners insurance. Broadening protection leverages our customer base, brand distribution and capabilities. So we protect consumers' electronics, appliances, furniture, roadside services, car warranties and identities.

我們的投資專業帶來第一與第二四分位的表現。而這一切都需要高度成熟的科技與分析平台。價值也來自永續成長。「轉型式成長」計畫正帶動汽車與住宅保險市占率提升。擴大保障則運用我們的客戶基礎、品牌通路與能力。因此我們為消費者提供電子產品、家電、家具、道路救援、車輛延長保固與身分保障等保護。

Next up is deployment of ALLIE, Allstate's large language intelligent ecosystem. Allstate also generates significant capital, which funds a wide range of value creation opportunities. Over the last decade, we've increased organic growth, generated attractive returns from investments, acquired Square Trade and National General, and provided significant cash to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.

接下來是部署 ALLIE，也就是 Allstate 的大型語言智慧生態系。Allstate 也能創造大量資本，為多元的價值創造機會提供資金。過去十年，我們提升內生成長、從投資中取得具吸引力的報酬，收購 SquareTrade 與 National General，並透過股利與庫藏股買回向股東提供可觀的現金回饋。

In that time, we've repurchased 39% of outstanding shares. The total cash return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases over this 10-year period was equal to Allstate's 2015 market capitalization. Allstate's annual free cash flow relative to market capitalization is far in excess of the S&P 500 in virtually all subsectors of the market.

在此期間，我們已回購流通在外股份的 39%。在這 10 年期間，透過股利與股票回購返還給股東的現金總額，相當於 Allstate 2015 年的市值。Allstate 的年度自由現金流相對於市值的比率，在市場幾乎所有子產業中都遠高於標普 500。

Let's turn to slide 5, which provides an overview of how these outcomes are powered by sophisticated technology and analytics. So we have a technology-driven strategy, not a strategy supported by technology. Now the difference may sound subtle, but in execution it's significant.

我們看第 5 張投影片，概述這些成果如何由先進的科技與分析所驅動。我們採取的是「科技驅動的策略」，而不是「由科技支援的策略」。這個差異聽起來或許細微，但在執行上影響重大。

A technology-driven strategy looks at technology first to determine how it can be leveraged to improve customer value and generate attractive returns. Strategy supported by technology starts with the go-to-market strategy and then says, how do we develop technology to implement that?

科技驅動的策略會先從科技出發，判斷如何運用科技提升客戶價值並創造具吸引力的報酬。由科技支援的策略則是先從市場進入策略出發，再思考要如何開發科技來落實。

In our case, this means advanced analytics are embedded into operations across the enterprise. That includes pricing, customer sales and support, claims, investments and capital management. Over 250 highly sophisticated analytical models are used to make and support decision-making using over 40 petabytes of data and 1.5 billion CPU compute hours.

就我們而言，這代表先進分析已嵌入全企業的營運之中。涵蓋定價、客戶銷售與支援、理賠、投資與資本管理。我們使用超過 250 個高度精密的分析模型，運用超過 40PB 的資料與 15 億 CPU 運算小時來進行與支援決策。

A few examples of what this enables us to do, generate over 100 million quotes, purchase 50 million leads often with sub-second response times, and manage hundreds of millions of customer interactions. Now this platform is enabling us to build ALLIE, which will leverage agentic AI to improve customer value, lower cost and increase growth. The architecture has eight integrated components that would enable agent-to-agent processing.

舉幾個例子，這讓我們能產生超過 1 億份報價、購買 5,000 萬筆潛在客戶名單，且回應時間往往低於 1 秒，並管理數億次的客戶互動。目前這個平台正使我們得以打造 ALLIE，將運用代理式 AI（agentic AI）提升客戶價值、降低成本並帶動成長。其架構包含八個整合元件，可支援代理對代理（agent-to-agent）的處理。

For example, one component will handle all customer interactions. Each component is comprised of multiple agentic agents, which are built to be reused across the enterprise. The orchestration layer that we built between the underlying systems for Transformative Growth is helping us accelerate the build and deployment of ALLIE.

例如，其中一個元件將處理所有客戶互動。每個元件由多個代理式代理（agentic agents）組成，並設計為可在全企業重複使用。我們在「轉型式成長」底層系統之間建立的協調層（orchestration layer），正協助我們加速 ALLIE 的建置與部署。

Transformative Growth also included a number of organizational process changes related to technology, which are enabling ALLIE. Now we still have more capabilities to build, particularly in reimagining customer value and business processes. And so we're enhancing our internal talent and expanding external relationships. ALLIE is another important step in executing a technology-driven strategy.

「轉型式成長」也包含多項與科技相關的組織流程變革，這些變革正在促成 ALLIE。目前我們仍有更多能力需要建置，特別是在重新想像客戶價值與業務流程方面。因此，我們正強化內部人才並擴大外部合作關係。ALLIE 是執行科技驅動策略的另一個重要步驟。

Jess will now discuss Property-Liability results.

接下來 Jess 將討論財產與責任保險業績。

All right. Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on slide 6 with how Allstate's operational excellence consistently results in superior performance. This slide shows 10 years of combined ratios in both auto and homeowners insurance as compared to the industry as well as the results for our Property-Liability business.

好的。謝謝你，Tom。各位早安。我們從第6頁開始，說明Allstate的營運卓越如何持續帶來優異表現。本頁顯示汽車與住宅保險在過去10年的綜合成本率，並與同業比較，同時也呈現我們財產—責任險業務的結果。

Starting with auto insurance on the left. Over the last 10 years, Allstate's auto insurance business achieved target margins with a combined ratio of 95.2%, while the industry did not make an underwriting profit. The same story exists in homeowners insurance, but Allstate's outperformance is greater at 10 points.

先看左側的汽車保險。過去10年，Allstate的汽車保險業務以95.2%的綜合成本率達成目標利潤率，而同業並未取得承保利潤。住宅保險也呈現相同情況，但Allstate的超越幅度更大，達到10個百分點。

There are obviously swings in individual products by year, but the third chart shows that in total, Allstate has generated significant underwriting margins over the last decade from our Property-Liability business. To achieve these strong results, Allstate relies on pricing sophistication, disciplined underwriting and a world-class claims team, manage volatility through risk selection and a robust reinsurance program as part of our strategic risk and return management framework.

各個產品按年度當然會有波動，但第三張圖表顯示，整體而言，Allstate在過去十年透過財產—責任險業務創造了可觀的承保利潤率。為了達成這些強勁成果，Allstate仰賴精密的定價能力、嚴謹的核保，以及世界級的理賠團隊；並透過風險篩選與健全的再保險計畫來管理波動，作為我們策略性風險與報酬管理架構的一部分。

Moving on to slide 7. The Property-Liability business increased growth in the second quarter while generating attractive returns. Starting with the table on the left, net premiums earned increased 4% to $14.9 billion, driven by premium growth in both auto and homeowners insurance. The Property-Liability combined ratio improved 4.5 points to 86.6%.

接著看第7頁。財產—責任險業務在第二季擴大成長，同時創造具吸引力的報酬。先看左側表格，已賺淨保費成長4%至149億美元，主要由汽車與住宅保險的保費成長帶動。財產—責任險綜合成本率改善4.5個百分點至86.6%。

Auto insurance generated an 83.3% combined ratio, improving 2.7 points from the prior year. Homeowners insurance generated a 94.6% combined ratio, improving 7.4 points. The Property-Liability underlying combined ratio remained strong at 79.4%. Business generated $2 billion of underwriting income, an increase of nearly 57% from the prior year.

汽車保險綜合成本率為83.3%，較去年改善2.7個百分點。住宅保險綜合成本率為94.6%，改善7.4個百分點。財產—責任險基礎綜合成本率維持強勁，為79.4%。業務創造20億美元承保收益，較去年增加近57%。

The chart on the right walks through the 4.5-point Property-Liability combined ratio improvement from 91.1% in the second quarter of '25 to 86.6% this quarter. The underlying loss ratio improved 1.1 points and lower catastrophe losses compared to the prior year contributed 2.4 points. Prior year reserve re-estimates contributed 2 points of the improvement.

右側圖表說明財產—責任險綜合成本率改善4.5個百分點的構成，從2025年第二季的91.1%降至本季的86.6%。基礎損失率改善1.1個百分點，且相較去年較低的巨災損失貢獻2.4個百分點。前期準備金重新估計帶來2個百分點的改善。

These drivers were offset by a 1 point increase in the expense ratio, about half of which is higher advertising with most of the remainder coming from non-recurring legal expenses. Overall, strong Property-Liability performance drove another quarter of excellent returns and a combined ratio of 86.6%.

上述因素部分被費用率上升1個百分點所抵銷，其中約一半來自較高的廣告支出，其餘大多來自一次性的法律費用。整體而言，強勁的財產—責任險表現帶動本季再度取得優異報酬，綜合成本率為86.6%。

Moving now to slide 8. Operational excellence also enables rapid adaptation to changing conditions. As most of you know, following the pandemic, supply chain constraints led to a nearly 60% increase in used car prices. We also experienced increases in parts costs, longer repair times and more severe accidents increased bodily injury severity.

接著看第8頁。營運卓越也使我們能快速因應變動的環境。如各位所知，疫情之後，供應鏈限制導致二手車價格上漲近60%。我們也經歷零件成本上升、修復時間拉長，以及更嚴重的事故使人身傷害嚴重度提高。

As a result, auto insurance returns deteriorated, necessitating price increases and restrictions on new business. Recent reserve changes highlight how quickly we were able to adapt. Auto claim reserve releases have totaled $1.5 billion this year. Approximately half of the bodily injury changes relate to 2023 and 2024.

因此，汽車保險報酬惡化，迫使我們調升價格並限制新業務。近期的準備金變動凸顯我們能多快完成調整。今年汽車理賠準備金釋放合計達15億美元。人身傷害變動約有一半與2023年及2024年相關。

The recorded and underlying combined ratios for each year are shown on the top two rows of this chart. The bottom rows adjust for the impact of claim reserve releases on each year and shows what the combined ratio would have been with these changes.

圖表上方兩列顯示各年度的已認列與基礎綜合成本率。下方各列則調整各年度理賠準備金釋放的影響，並顯示若納入這些變動後，綜合成本率會是多少。

As you can see in 2023, the underlying combined ratio for auto insurance would have been 95.2%, a 7.2-point improvement from 2022, which shows our rapid adaptation. We also made changes to reserve re-estimates within a year and did so in the second quarter. The reduction of expected costs for first-quarter claims benefited the second quarter by 2.4 points, resulting in an adjusted underlying combined ratio of 90%. The year-to-date underlying combined ratio was 88.5%.

如各位所見，2023年汽車保險的基礎綜合成本率本可達95.2%，較2022年改善7.2個百分點，顯示我們的快速調整能力。我們也在一年內對準備金重新估計進行調整，且是在第二季完成。對第一季理賠預期成本的下修，使第二季受益2.4個百分點，帶來調整後的基礎綜合成本率90%。年初至今的基礎綜合成本率為88.5%。

Let's turn now to slide 9 to discuss how Allstate has improved affordability, which increases growth while maintaining strong margins. The chart shows Allstate's auto premium per policy compared to the adjusted underlying loss and expense per policy.

接著看第9頁，討論Allstate如何提升可負擔性，在維持強勁利潤率的同時帶動成長。圖表顯示Allstate每張保單的汽車保費，並與調整後的基礎損失與費用（每張保單）比較。

The dark blue line represents annualized average premium. The light blue line represents adjusted underlying loss and expense. The gap between the two results in strong auto insurance margins.

深藍線代表年化平均保費。淺藍線代表調整後的基礎損失與費用。兩者之間的差距帶來強勁的汽車保險利潤率。

On the right side of the chart, annualized premium per policy in the second quarter was $1,486, down slightly from the second quarter of 2025, reflecting strong margins and actions that we've taken to improve affordability for customers. Adjusted underlying loss and expense per policy was $1,337.

在圖表右側，第二季每張保單的年化保費為1,486美元，較2025年第二季略降，反映出強勁利潤率以及我們為提升客戶可負擔性所採取的措施。每張保單的調整後基礎損失與費用為1,337美元。

The bottom of the slide shows the net implemented rate change over time. In the second quarter, rate increases and decreases were implemented in 36 locations with a net impact of 0. Allstate continues to manage auto insurance profitability with discipline, and the business is positioned to grow profitably.

投影片底部顯示隨時間推移的已實施淨費率變動。第二季在36個地區實施了費率上調與下調，淨影響為0。Allstate持續以紀律管理汽車保險獲利能力，該業務已具備可獲利成長的定位。

And now I'll pass it over to Mario.

接下來我把時間交給Mario。

Thanks, Jess. Turning to slide 10. Transformative Growth execution is generating Property-Liability market share growth. Looking first at the left side of the slide, advances in our acquisition sophistication, expanded direct distribution and productivity of Allstate agents allow us to economically increase Allstate brand advertising.

謝謝，Jess。請看第10頁。「轉型式成長」（Transformative Growth）的執行正在帶動財產—責任險市占率成長。先看投影片左側，我們在獲客精準度上的進展、擴大的直營通路，以及Allstate代理人的生產力，使我們能以具經濟效益的方式提高Allstate品牌廣告投放。

We have strong returns from marketing spend with advertising investment of $1.1 billion in the first half of the year. In the center of the slide, you can see how these investments are translating into new business growth in the Allstate agent and direct channels. In addition, independent agent volumes increased as well.

我們的行銷支出帶來強勁報酬，上半年廣告投資為11億美元。在投影片中央，各位可以看到這些投資如何轉化為Allstate代理人通路與直營通路的新業務成長。此外，獨立代理人的業務量也有所增加。

The top chart shows auto insurance new business by channel for the second quarter of 2023 and the most recent quarter. Auto insurance new business increased to 2.3 million items in the quarter versus 1.5 million items three years ago, which is balanced between all channels: Allstate agents, independent agents and direct sales via phone or web.

上方圖表顯示2023年第二季與最近一季按通路劃分的汽車保險新業務。本季汽車保險新業務增加至230萬件，相較三年前的150萬件；且在各通路間分布均衡：Allstate代理人、獨立代理人，以及透過電話或網路的直銷。

The bottom chart shows a similar pattern in homeowners insurance with new business increasing by 46.8% to 411,000 policies, many of which are bundled with auto insurance, particularly in the Allstate agent channel. Overall, new business growth highlights the benefits of having the broadest distribution in the industry and new products with sophisticated pricing and risk segmentation.

下方圖表顯示住宅保險也呈現類似趨勢，新業務增加46.8%至411,000張保單，其中許多與汽車保險綁定，尤其是在Allstate代理人通路。整體而言，新業務成長凸顯我們擁有業界最廣泛的通路，以及具備精密定價與風險分層的新產品所帶來的效益。

Growth rates by year are shown on the right side of the slide. Auto insurance policy growth in the second quarter turned positive last year after the pandemic-related growth restrictions and was 2.8% this quarter. In homeowners insurance, growth has been consistently positive and was 2.9% this quarter. The bottom line is that Transformative Growth is working.

投影片右側顯示按年度的成長率。汽車保險保單成長在去年於疫情相關的成長限制解除後轉為正成長，本季為2.8%。住宅保險方面，成長一直維持正向，本季為2.9%。結論是，「轉型式成長」正在奏效。

Moving to slide 11. Protection Services is an important part of how Allstate expands protection and leverages capabilities to create value in more parts of customers' lives. The segment has 177 million policies in force, contributing $3.4 billion to our top line and generating over $200 million in adjusted net income in the last 12 months.

接著看第11頁。「保護服務」（Protection Services）是Allstate擴大保障範疇、並運用自身能力在客戶生活更多面向創造價值的重要一環。該事業部目前有1.77億張有效保單，為我們營收貢獻34億美元，並在過去12個月創造超過2億美元的調整後淨利。

Protection Services extends Allstate's brand, customer relationships, distribution network and technology capabilities into adjacent markets. Allstate Protection plans are distributed through over 30 major retailers such as Walmart, Costco and Home Depot as well as a growing presence in international markets. This gives us access to customers at the point of purchase and expands awareness of the Allstate brand.

保護服務（Protection Services）將 Allstate 的品牌、客戶關係、通路網絡與科技能力延伸至相鄰市場。Allstate 保護方案透過超過 30 家主要零售商（如 Walmart、Costco 與 Home Depot）進行銷售，並且在國際市場的布局也持續擴大。這讓我們能在消費者購買當下接觸客戶，並提升 Allstate 品牌的能見度。

Dealer Services extends our reach into vehicle purchasing journey through more than 1,100 dealership relationships. Products protect vehicle value and reduce the cost of unexpected repairs. Arity demonstrates how Allstate leverages data and analytics at scale. With over 2 trillion miles of driving data, mobility intelligence capabilities provide a better understanding of how people move, improve risk insights and generate third-party revenue.

經銷商服務（Dealer Services）透過超過 1,100 家經銷商合作關係，將我們的觸角延伸至車輛購買旅程。相關產品可保障車輛價值並降低突發維修的成本。Arity 展示了 Allstate 如何以規模化方式運用資料與分析。憑藉超過 2 兆英里的行駛資料，移動智慧能力可更深入理解人們如何移動、改善風險洞察，並創造第三方收入。

Roadside assistance brings the Allstate brand to life through 1.75 million rescues each year, which strengthens customer relationships. An exciting part of Transformative Growth is that the affordable, simple and connected auto insurance shopping experiences are increasing bundled roadside sales.

道路救援每年提供 175 萬次救援，讓 Allstate 品牌具體落地，並強化客戶關係。「轉型式成長」（Transformative Growth）令人振奮的一點是：平價、簡單且互聯的汽車保險購物體驗，正帶動道路救援的捆綁銷售增加。

Allstate Identity Protection extends our promise of protection into another area of growing customer need. Identity Protection helps 3.4 million customers prevent, detect and recover from scams and identity-related events. By doing so, we expand Allstate's customer base.

Allstate 身分保護（Allstate Identity Protection）將我們的保護承諾延伸至另一個客戶需求日益成長的領域。身分保護協助 340 萬名客戶預防、偵測並從詐騙與身分相關事件中復原。藉此，我們擴大 Allstate 的客戶基礎。

Taken together, these businesses reflect a broad strategic opportunity. Customers need protection in more aspects of their lives, and Allstate is uniquely positioned to meet those needs. In summary, Protection Services expands our addressable market, broadens our distribution footprint, deepens customer relationships and creates additional opportunities for growth.

綜合而言，這些業務反映出廣泛的策略性機會。客戶在生活的更多面向需要保障，而 Allstate 具備獨特優勢可滿足這些需求。總結來說，保護服務擴大我們可觸及的市場、拓展通路版圖、深化客戶關係，並創造額外的成長機會。

And now, I'll turn it over to John.

接下來我把時間交給 John。

Thanks, Mario. Let's turn to slide 12 to discuss how strong investment performance supports earnings growth and shareholder value. Starting on the left, the portfolio is 80% interest-bearing assets with equity securities and performance-based investments providing growth-oriented exposure. This allocation supports recurring income generation while providing attractive risk-adjusted return on capital.

謝謝，Mario。我們看第 12 頁投影片，討論強勁的投資績效如何支持盈餘成長與股東價值。從左側開始，投資組合有 80% 為計息資產，另有股票證券與績效型投資提供偏成長的曝險。此配置在支持經常性收益產生的同時，也能提供具吸引力的風險調整後資本報酬。

Our investment performance is first and second quartile when benchmarked to the market for fixed income, private equity and real estate. This is due to a terrific team of nearly 300 investment professionals and use of external managers when we don't have the expertise or scale in-house.

以固定收益、私募股權與不動產相對市場基準衡量，我們的投資績效位於第一與第二四分位。這歸功於一支近 300 名投資專業人士的優秀團隊，並在我們內部缺乏專業或規模時，搭配外部管理人。

Turning to the upper right, investment income is a growing contributor to earnings. In 2022, investment income -- or since 2022, investment income has increased over 57%, growing from $2.4 billion to nearly $3.8 billion on a trailing 12-month basis as of second quarter 2026. That has increased the contribution of investment income to roughly $11.5 of adjusted net income per diluted share.

看右上角，投資收益正成為盈餘日益重要的貢獻來源。自 2022 年以來，投資收益增加超過 57%，由 24 億美元成長至截至 2026 年第二季、以過去 12 個月計算的近 38 億美元。這使投資收益對稀釋後每股調整後淨利的貢獻提高至約 11.5 美元。

Shareholder value is also created by using an enterprise risk and return lens to adjust investment allocations. We actively adjust portfolio positioning as market conditions, investment opportunities and enterprise priorities evolve, enabling us to grow income, improve portfolio yields and generate attractive long-term investment performance.

此外，透過以企業風險與報酬的視角調整投資配置，也能創造股東價值。我們會隨市場狀況、投資機會與企業優先事項的演變，主動調整投資組合定位，使我們得以提升收益、改善投資組合殖利率，並創造具吸引力的長期投資績效。

For example, when Property-Liability margins declined at the beginning of the pandemic and the economic outlook was uncertain, we reduced equity holdings. Last year, with strong results, a strong economy and additional deployable capital, the duration of the bond portfolio was lengthened, and public equity holdings were increased by $7.1 billion. Benefit of these actions are higher investment income and mark-to-market equity gains and net income. The lower right shows overall returns on a GAAP adjusted basis, which were 2.6% in the most recent quarter.

例如，在疫情初期產險（Property-Liability）利潤率下滑且經濟前景不明時，我們降低了股票持有比重。去年，在強勁成果、強勁經濟與更多可部署資本的情況下，我們拉長了債券投資組合的存續期間，並將公開市場股票持有增加 71 億美元。這些行動帶來的效益包括更高的投資收益、按市價評價（mark-to-market）的股票收益，以及淨利提升。右下角顯示以 GAAP 調整基礎計算的整體報酬率，在最近一季為 2.6%。

Now let's move to slide 13, which highlights how strong capital generation funds diversified value creation. Attractive returns on equity have enabled Allstate to generate substantial capital, giving us the flexibility to invest in growth, strengthen our competitive position and return capital to shareholders.

接著看第 13 頁投影片，重點說明強勁的資本生成如何支撐多元化的價值創造。具吸引力的股東權益報酬率使 Allstate 得以產生可觀資本，讓我們能靈活投資成長、強化競爭地位，並回饋資本給股東。

The top half of the slide shows how we've deployed the capital generated over the last decade. We've nearly doubled Property-Liability premiums, increased investments and completed acquisitions that have strengthened both our distribution capabilities and our protection offerings. At the same time, we've returned significant capital to shareholders through dividends and the repurchase of 39% of outstanding shares.

投影片上半部顯示我們在過去十年如何運用所產生的資本。我們幾乎將產險保費規模翻倍、增加投資，並完成多項併購，強化了通路能力與保護型產品/服務供給。同時，我們也透過股利與回購已發行股份的 39%，向股東返還大量資本。

Looking at the right-hand side of the chart, we see that these investments and shareholder returns were supported by attractive returns on equity. Over the past 10 years, Allstate's average return on equity matched the S&P 500 and ranked in the top quartile among peers.

從圖表右側可見，這些投資與股東回饋是由具吸引力的股東權益報酬率所支撐。過去 10 年，Allstate 的平均股東權益報酬率與 S&P 500 相當，並在同業中位居前四分位。

The bottom half of the slide highlights our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we returned $1.3 billion to shareholders, including a repurchase of $1 billion of common shares. $2.6 billion remained under the $4 billion repurchase authorization announced in February.

投影片下半部強調我們持續致力於回饋資本給股東。本季我們向股東返還 13 億美元，其中包含回購 10 億美元普通股。2 月宣布的 40 億美元回購授權中，尚餘 26 億美元可用。

We are in a strong capital position with deployable capital at the holding company increasing to $9.5 billion or approximately $37 per common share outstanding. Strong returns on equity have enabled us to invest in growth, build competitive advantages and return substantial capital to shareholders. Together, these actions have been a powerful driver of long-term shareholder value.

我們的資本部位強勁，控股公司層級的可部署資本增加至 95 億美元，約相當於每股流通普通股 37 美元。強勁的股東權益報酬率使我們得以投資成長、建立競爭優勢，並向股東返還可觀資本。綜合而言，這些行動一直是長期股東價值的強力驅動因素。

And now I'll wrap up quickly on slide 14. And in closing, Allstate's strategy is delivering strong results and creating shareholder value. Now let's open up the floor to questions and answers. Thank you.

接下來我在第 14 頁投影片做個簡短總結。總結而言，Allstate 的策略正帶來強勁成果並創造股東價值。現在我們開放問答。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（接線員指示）Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。

So I'll focus on slide 5 and the technology piece for my first question. And I'm sure there's a lot of complexity to what's going on here, but maybe you could step back and give us some perspective on how you're managing the costs and measuring the ROI of all your various initiatives.

我第一個問題會聚焦在第 5 頁投影片與科技這一塊。我相信這裡面有很多複雜性，但也許你們可以退一步，給我們一些觀點：你們如何管理各項計畫的成本，並衡量這些不同倡議的投資報酬率（ROI）？

And with these large language models, I imagine protecting your data assets and your underwriting tools are top of mind. And when we think about this technology investment, are we going to be getting to a point in the future where you're off all the legacy systems?

另外，談到這些大型語言模型，我想保護你們的資料資產與核保工具一定是首要考量。當我們思考這項科技投資時，未來是否會走到一個階段：你們能完全脫離所有舊有（legacy）系統？

Greg, let me deal with that first three pieces. We did this slide to just show that artificial intelligence is just another step along the continuum that we've been on for a long time, which is we're a very technology and analytics-driven company, and AI will help further improve what we already know how to do.

Greg，我先回應你提到的前三個部分。我們做這張投影片，是想說明人工智慧只是我們長期走在的一條連續光譜上的下一步；我們是一家非常以科技與分析驅動的公司，而 AI 會進一步強化我們本來就擅長的能力。

So there are some companies that are less advanced than that. We don't say we're the most advanced. We just want to know kind of where we are, which is we're heavily into using technology.

有些公司在這方面的成熟度較低。我們不會說自己是最先進的。我們只是想清楚知道我們的位置：也就是我們非常大量地運用科技。

The expenses related with that, we look at all kinds of different ways, as you would expect. But we're not having any barriers right now to investing money and getting good returns on that. As it relates to the long-term thing, you're always -- I kind of cynically say to our team sometimes, what's a legacy system? It's usually one you just turned on.

至於相關費用，我們會用各種不同方式來檢視，這也符合你的預期。但目前我們在投入資金並取得良好回報方面，沒有遇到任何障礙。至於長期議題，我有時會帶點玩笑、略帶犬儒地對團隊說：什麼叫舊有系統（legacy system）？通常就是你剛上線的那一套。

So you're always adapting technology, you're always doing it. We are moving to what we call the Connected Customer Cloud, which is C3, to put a lot of our systems on the same basis, the same platform. But with our orchestration layer, we don't need to get rid of all ex -- old technology.

所以你永遠都在調整科技、永遠都在做這件事。我們正在推進我們所稱的「互聯客戶雲」（Connected Customer Cloud），也就是 C3，讓許多系統建立在相同基礎、同一平台上。但透過我們的編排層（orchestration layer），我們不需要把所有既有——舊技術——全部淘汰。

The orchestration layer, if you talk to people working on AI, that's one of the most difficult things to put in because it requires you to go in and take your legacy systems and make them accessible through APIs and other actions. And we did that as part of Transformative Growth.

編排層（orchestration layer），如果你去跟在做 AI 的人聊，那是最難導入的事情之一，因為它要求你回頭把既有的傳統系統改造成可透過 API 與其他動作來存取。而我們在「轉型式成長」（Transformative Growth）中就已經把這件事做了。

We didn't do it knowing AI was coming. We just thought it made sense, but it's positioned us to do ALLIE well. And as it relates to like token costs, I know a number of companies talk about token cost. That's not an issue for us.

我們當時並不是因為知道 AI 要來才做。我們只是覺得這樣做很合理，但它讓我們在推動 ALLIE 上具備很好的條件。至於像 token 成本，我知道很多公司都在談 token 成本。這對我們不是問題。

And just the other piece of it is just protecting your data assets and underwriting tools from the large language models. Do you have any perspective on that?

另外一塊就是，如何保護你的資料資產與核保工具，不被大型語言模型影響或外洩。你對這點有什麼看法嗎？

Yeah. Cybersecurity is obviously really important and more difficult now than it was two years ago and five years ago. So we spent a tremendous amount of time and effort on cybersecurity. I'm personally concerned about the large language models that now break out on their own and tell other agents how to do it on their own without getting caught. I think that's an issue that the country really needs to deal with.

有。資安顯然非常重要，而且現在比兩年前、五年前都更難。所以我們在資安上投入了大量時間與精力。我個人擔心的是，現在有些大型語言模型會自行「脫離」並告訴其他代理（agents）如何在不被抓到的情況下自行操作。我認為這是國家層級真的需要面對的問題。

From our standpoint, we're aggressive. We've built up a great team. We know how to use LLMs internal. We don't use public LLMs to do any of our stuff. So we're not worried about our data being exfiltrated or scooped up in the knowledge of somebody else's LLM so one of our competitors can use it.

就我們而言，我們採取積極作法。我們建立了一支很強的團隊。我們知道如何在內部使用 LLM。我們不使用公開的 LLM 來做任何我們的工作。因此我們不擔心資料被外傳（exfiltrated）或被納入別人的 LLM 知識庫，讓競爭對手拿去用。

But you're right to be focused on cybersecurity. It's -- obviously, it's important for our customers to make sure we keep their data safe and secure.

但你把焦點放在資安是對的。顯然，對我們的客戶而言，確保我們把他們的資料維持在安全、受保護的狀態非常重要。

Excellent. And then just a focus on slide 6, the -- where you ran through your 10-year record. And I'm particularly focused on the auto piece where I think through the six months, you're running substantially below your 10-year average combined ratio.

很好。接著聚焦在第 6 張投影片——你們回顧了 10 年的紀錄。我特別關注汽車險（auto）這一塊，因為就這六個月來看，你們的綜合率（combined ratio）明顯低於 10 年平均。

And I'm reconciling slide 9 where you flat rate change. Just curious about the competitive environment and when we might start to see that combined ratio drift up more towards the 10-year average.

我在對照第 9 張投影片，你們的費率變動是持平（flat rate change）。想請教目前的競爭環境，以及我們何時可能開始看到綜合率往上漂移、回到更接近 10 年平均的水準？

Let me go up a little bit and answer growth because I know there will be other people interested in growth as well. First, to have sustainable growth, you really need a multifaceted approach. It's not really just about cutting price because anybody can give it away.

我先往上講一點來回答成長，因為我知道也會有其他人對成長感興趣。首先，要有可持續的成長，你真的需要多面向的方法。這不只是降價而已，因為任何人都可以把價格「送出去」。

And I sometimes feel like when people are doing analysis of us, they just look at price, they look at combined ratio and they say, well, you're going to change your pricing so your combined ratio is going to go way up. That certainly would be reflective of some people's view given our low PE today.

而且我有時覺得，外界在分析我們時，只看價格、只看綜合率，然後就說：嗯，你們會調整定價，所以綜合率會大幅上升。考量到我們目前偏低的本益比（PE），這確實反映了某些人的看法。

We don't -- we believe we can continue to operate and get rents better than the industry gets, which is why Jess showed that slide of how we're better than the industry. We do that because we got this multifaceted approach to it.

我們不——我們相信我們可以持續營運，並取得比產業更好的超額報酬（rents），這也是為什麼 Jess 展示那張投影片，說明我們如何優於同業。我們之所以能做到，是因為我們採取了多面向的方法。

And remember, that is what Transformative Growth is, which Mario talked about. It starts with increasing customer value, which is more affordable prices and new products. And so -- and that started, you'll remember, with reducing costs. We made a lot of progress on reducing costs over the last six years, but we have more to do there.

而且請記得，這正是 Mario 談到的「轉型式成長」（Transformative Growth）。它從提升客戶價值開始，也就是更可負擔的價格與新產品。因此——你會記得，它一開始是從降低成本著手。過去六年我們在降成本上取得很大進展，但還有更多可以做。

The second quarter ratio went up. Jess talked about, about half was advertising; a lot of the rest was a one-time legal accrual, which they tend to be bumpy. It's not systemic. I don't intend to get into why we did the accrual, but it's not systemic. So I'm not concerned about where we are in the second quarter, but we're also not done. And maybe Jess can talk later -- if somebody has a question about expenses, Jess can talk about what we're doing there.

第二季的費用率上升了。Jess 提到，大約一半是廣告；其餘很大一部分是一筆一次性的法律費用提列（legal accrual），這類項目通常會有波動。這不是系統性問題。我不打算深入說明為什麼要提列，但它不是系統性問題。所以我不擔心第二季的狀況，但我們也還沒做完。也許 Jess 之後可以談——如果有人對費用有問題，Jess 可以說明我們在做什麼。

Claim effectiveness is also important. Mike Fiato's team has done an excellent job of keeping our claims properly paid. So that's not too little, not too much. So you can see from the reserve changes, our costs have come in a lot lower than we thought they would be.

理賠效能（claim effectiveness）也很重要。Mike Fiato 的團隊在確保我們理賠支付得當方面做得非常好。也就是不會付太少，也不會付太多。所以你可以從準備金變動看到，我們的成本比原先預期低了很多。

New products, we've done well, which is another part of increasing customer value. Broaden access to all distribution channels, Mario talked about that. Increasing sophistication in marketing; we have success there as well, but we're putting a new enterprise customer acquisition system into place, which we think will take us again further towards driving growth without having to just reduce price and take less margin. The new tech ecosystem we talked about.

新產品方面我們做得不錯，這也是提升客戶價值的另一部分。擴大所有通路的可及性，Mario 也談到了。提升行銷的精準度；我們在這方面也有成果，但我們正在導入一套新的企業級客戶獲取系統（enterprise customer acquisition system），我們認為這會讓我們更進一步推動成長，而不必只是降價、犧牲更多利潤率。以及我們提到的新科技生態系。

So there's a multifaceted approach to it. At this point and we're earning high returns and so it pays to drive shareholder value by reducing some of that margin and giving us some growth. But we don't like to have a plan to say, we're at X and the right optimal point is to get to 94%. We just do it every day, how we're going to grow as fast as we can and make as much money as we can.

所以這是一個多面向的方法。在目前這個階段，我們的報酬率很高，因此透過降低部分利潤率、換取一些成長，來提升股東價值是值得的。但我們不喜歡制定一個計畫說：我們現在在 X，而最佳最優點是要到 94%。我們只是每天都在做：如何以最快速度成長、同時賺到最多的錢。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

Bob Huang，摩根士丹利。

My first one is around the competition within the broader space. If we look at the broader market, would you kind of give us a color on the competitive environment for auto -- personal auto only the monoline business versus how the bundled home and auto competition is, which side is more intense when it comes to competition? And is there a divergence between how the growth opportunity would look like going forward for those two specific lines?

我的第一個問題是關於更廣泛市場中的競爭。如果我們看整體市場，你能否談談汽車險的競爭環境——也就是只做單一險種（monoline）的個人汽車險業務，與「住家險＋汽車險」的組合式競爭相比，哪一邊的競爭更激烈？以及就未來而言，這兩條特定產品線的成長機會是否會出現分歧？

I'm going to go up a little bit, Bob, and then come down. So first, we think about it as the customer, how do we meet all their needs? So that's auto insurance, it's home insurance, could be renters insurance. So if they don't have a home, we'll sell them renters' insurance. It could be their identity because everybody's got an identity. A lot of people have phones and TVs.

Bob，我先往上講一點，再往下回來。首先，我們是以客戶為中心來思考：如何滿足他們所有需求？所以包括汽車保險、住家保險，也可能是租屋險（renters insurance）。如果他們沒有房子，我們就賣給他們租屋險。也可能是身分（identity），因為每個人都有身分。很多人也有手機和電視。

And so we kind of want to protect whatever it is they have, whichever way they can. We do that mostly under the Allstate brand, as you know. So that brand sells well, and Mario talked about that in terms of our broad distribution as well. So we start there.

因此我們希望以各種方式去保障他們擁有的任何東西。如你所知，我們主要透過 Allstate 品牌來做這件事。這個品牌賣得很好，而 Mario 也從我們廣泛的通路角度談到了這點。所以我們從這裡開始。

When you go down below that then and say, okay, on monoline auto, I would say, all of those people who buy just auto insurance from us, there's other stuff I'd like to sell them too, like it doesn't just have to be auto.

接著往下看，若談到單一險種的汽車險，我會說：所有那些只跟我們買汽車險的人，我也希望能賣給他們其他產品，不一定只能是汽車險。

But if you're focused on the -- what I would call the higher risk non-standard non-Robinsons, if that's what you're referring to, group, that's pretty competitive. National General really gave us a leg up in our expertise there. And it also gave us a huge leg up in the independent agent channel.

但如果你關注的是——我所謂風險較高的非標準（non-standard）且非 Robinsons 的客群（如果你指的是這一群），那裡的競爭相當激烈。National General 讓我們在那方面的專業能力大幅領先。同時也讓我們在獨立代理人通路上取得很大的優勢。

In the bundled product, we're obviously quite good there. Mario talked about the cross-line sales from our Allstate agents are really at all-time record highs. And so we're feeling good about that whole process. And then we think we can sell even more stuff.

在組合式產品方面，我們顯然做得相當好。Mario 提到，我們 Allstate 代理人的跨產品線銷售已經來到史上新高。因此我們對整個流程感到很有信心。而且我們認為還能賣出更多產品。

Jess can talk about what we're doing in individual markets because I think you're focused really on product, but I'm saying, focus on customer, that's important. Product also important. But there's also like what are you doing in the local market in a state? So Jess, maybe you can give an example of a state where how we're competing differently there than we were in the past.

Jess 可以談談我們在個人市場做些什麼，因為我想你主要聚焦在產品，但我想說，要聚焦在客戶，這很重要。產品也很重要。但另外還有一點：你在某個州的在地市場做了什麼？所以 Jess，也許你可以舉一個州的例子，說明我們在那裡的競爭方式與過去有何不同。

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks, Tom. So hard to pick a state. We love all the states equally, but we're sitting here in Illinois, and I thought maybe I would pick Illinois because Illinois is an interesting state. So it's in focus because effectively, Illinois is a state where we're growing, but we're not growing as much as we think we could, right?

好的，當然可以。謝謝你，Tom。很難挑一個州。我們對所有州都一視同仁，但我們現在人在伊利諾伊州，我想也許就選伊利諾伊州，因為伊利諾伊州是一個很有意思的州。它之所以成為焦點，是因為實際上伊利諾伊州是我們正在成長的州，但成長幅度沒有我們認為可能達到的那麼高，對吧？

So we see opportunity and potential in the state to accelerate growth. So we have go-to-market teams. I think we've talked with all of you about that. We have a go-to-market team that's focused on the state of Illinois, and they optimize across channels to make sure that we're really getting the most production, and as Tom said, meeting the most number of customers where they're at.

所以我們看到這個州有機會與潛力去加速成長。因此我們有市場推進（go-to-market）團隊。我想我們已經跟各位談過。我們有一個聚焦伊利諾伊州的市場推進團隊，他們跨通路進行最佳化，以確保我們真正取得最大的產能（production），並如 Tom 所說，在客戶所在之處接觸到最多的客戶。

So we have a strong EA footprint in Illinois, but at the same time, they're focusing on direct in a segmented way. So the go-to-market team is identifying where can we win in the direct channel, and we're investing marketing dollars where the returns are strong.

所以我們在伊利諾伊州有很強的專屬代理（EA）據點，但同時也以分眾的方式聚焦直銷通路。因此市場推進團隊正在辨識我們在哪些地方能在直銷通路取勝，並把行銷預算投放在報酬率強勁的地方。

At the same time in the state, you look at the independent agent channel, and we're providing -- we have underwriting and pricing strategies that help those independent agents win. As Tom mentioned, it's not just that, it's product portfolio.

同時在這個州，你再看獨立代理人通路，我們提供——我們有核保與定價策略，協助這些獨立代理人取勝。如 Tom 提到的，不只是如此，還包括產品組合。

So we have Custom360 products available for independent agents. We have really competitive, both auto and home products, that they can then bundle -- provide that bundled solution to their customers. And we think that affordable protection is differentiating.

所以我們提供獨立代理人可銷售的 Custom360 產品。我們有非常具競爭力的汽車與住宅保險產品，他們可以再把這些產品打包——為客戶提供組合式解決方案。而我們認為「可負擔的保障」是差異化所在。

And we -- because we have that product availability, we're going in and we're engaging and then, in some cases, re-engaging independent agents so that we get more new business out of that channel. That doesn't mean we're not focused on the exclusive agent channel and accelerating growth there from both a retention and a new business perspective.

而且——因為我們有這些產品供給，我們會進場與獨立代理人互動，並在某些情況下重新互動，以便從該通路取得更多新業務。這並不代表我們不重視專屬代理人通路，並從留存與新業務兩個面向加速那裡的成長。

So that can be things like coaching, pure benchmarking, but also providing tools so that they can serve more customers and identify more customer needs. Of course, they have a broad portfolio of solutions available to them. It's not just auto, home, landlords or renters.

因此這可能包括教練輔導、純粹的標竿比較（benchmarking），也包括提供工具，讓他們能服務更多客戶並辨識更多客戶需求。當然，他們可運用的解決方案組合很廣。不只是汽車、住宅、房東或租客保險。

As Tom mentioned, this is life and retirement solutions. Commercial solutions that exclusive agents can then bring to market. And the go-to-market team helps them to identify where those opportunities exist while also looking at footprint and things that we can do to make exclusive agents more productive.

如 Tom 提到的，還包括壽險與退休解決方案。以及專屬代理人可以推向市場的商業解決方案。而市場推進團隊會協助他們辨識這些機會在哪裡，同時也會檢視據點覆蓋（footprint）以及我們能做些什麼來提升專屬代理人的生產力。

The one other thing I would say is we also then take learnings from other states and apply them to a state like Illinois. So we're having great success in places like Missouri and Texas and Kansas. And we take those stories, we carry them forward into the local market, and we apply them across all three distribution channels. So it's a really balanced way to identify where the best opportunities exist to grow, and that's where we are able to implement and execute through the go-to-market teams.

另外我還想說的是，我們也會把其他州的學習成果帶回來，應用到像伊利諾伊州這樣的州。所以我們在密蘇里州、德州與堪薩斯州等地取得很大成功。我們把那些案例帶到在地市場，並把它們套用到三個分銷通路上。因此這是一種非常均衡的方法，用來辨識哪些地方存在最佳的成長機會，而我們也能透過市場推進團隊去落地執行。

Okay. Really appreciate that. So it's much more holistic. That's the right way to think about it.

好的。非常感謝你的分享。所以這是更全面的做法。這樣思考是對的。

Holistic across the business, not just the distribution channel, product availability. Yeah, it's a complete system.

在整個業務層面全面考量，不只是分銷通路、產品供給。是的，這是一個完整的系統。

Okay. My second question is really on -- if we think about severity development, right, like inflation is there, but it doesn't feel like it's showing up so problematically if we look at severity over the last, call it, six months. Just given where the severity development has been so far, given the weather, given everything else, is it sort of fair to say even if pricing were to continue to slow down, it's really not a lot of loss pressure that's pushing the combined ratio higher so far?

好的。我的第二個問題主要是——如果我們思考損失嚴重度（severity）的發展，對吧，通膨確實存在，但如果看過去大概六個月的嚴重度，感覺它並沒有以那麼問題化的方式反映出來。就目前嚴重度的發展、天氣以及其他所有因素來看，是否可以說，即使定價持續放緩，到目前為止其實也沒有太大的損失壓力把綜合率推高？

Is it also safe to say that that's going to continue for the rest of the year? Is that kind of a right way to think about where things are going, going forward?

也可以說這種情況會在今年剩餘時間持續嗎？這樣是否是思考未來走勢的正確方式？

Bob, this is Jess. On severity, I mean, obviously, we're not going to give you a forward look on what severity is going to be. We can talk about what's happening. And we try and isolate -- rather than isolating severity, we give you pure premium trends. And you saw that the pure premium trend was down for the quarter. So that's some combination of frequency and severity.

Bob，我是 Jess。關於嚴重度，當然，我們不會對未來嚴重度做前瞻性指引。我們可以談談正在發生的情況。而且我們會嘗試——與其單獨拆解嚴重度，我們提供的是純保費（pure premium）趨勢。你也看到本季純保費趨勢是下降的。所以那是出險頻率（frequency）與嚴重度的某種組合。

I think you have to -- as you think about severity and what it's going to look like going forward, certainly, there's inflation that will affect certain components of severity, particularly physical damage severities. But there's bodily injury severity and bodily injury severity trends that we have to keep an eye on. And those continue to be at relatively high levels, particularly as compared to the physical damage severities. I think the whole industry is seeing that.

我認為你必須——當你思考嚴重度以及未來可能的走勢時，確實有通膨會影響嚴重度的某些組成，特別是車體損害（physical damage）的嚴重度。但還有人身傷害（bodily injury）嚴重度，以及人身傷害嚴重度的趨勢需要我們密切關注。而且這些仍維持在相對高的水準，尤其是相較於車體損害嚴重度而言。我想整個產業都看到了這點。

So as you think about -- you can see, again, what the pure premium trend was for the quarter. And you know sort of behind the scenes what we're doing to make sure that we're operationally excellent from a claims perspective. But you really have to take a forward view on what's the inflation impact going to be on things like parts, what are we going to see in labor inflation and then what's the bodily injury severity development going to look like in the back half of the year before you can really form a view on what the overall pure premium trend is going to look like for the rest of the year and what that's going to mean to margins.

所以當你思考——你可以再次看到本季的純保費趨勢。而你也知道我們在幕後做了哪些事，以確保在理賠作業面維持卓越營運。但你確實必須以前瞻角度來看：通膨對零件等項目的影響會是什麼、我們會看到多少勞動成本通膨，以及今年下半年人身傷害嚴重度的發展會長什麼樣子；在此之前，你很難真正形成對今年剩餘時間整體純保費趨勢以及其對利潤率意涵的看法。

Right now, though, the key point on the slide was, if you look at the average premium and the pure premium trend, we have really solid margins.

不過就目前而言，投影片上的重點是：如果你看平均保費與純保費趨勢，我們的利潤率非常穩健。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Rob Cox。

Yeah. For my first question, I just want to ask on the deployable capital of $9.5 billion at the holding company. Just given that level of capital and even some normalization in underwriting profitability, it seems like you could repurchase shares at the current pace for quite some time.

是的。我的第一個問題想問控股公司層級可動用資本（deployable capital）95 億美元。考量這個資本水位，以及核保獲利能力即使有所常態化，看起來你們仍可以用目前的速度回購股票相當長一段時間。

So I'm just curious, is it prudent at this point in time to stop accelerating the buyback and hold on to some more cash to give some leeway for potential acquisitions? Or how are you all thinking about that?

所以我想了解的是，在這個時間點，是否更審慎的做法是停止加速回購、保留更多現金，以便對潛在併購留出一些彈性？或者你們是怎麼思考這件事的？

Rob, it's Tom. We committed to do $4 billion. We're going to do $4 billion. John pushed that aggressively last quarter because we have plenty of capital. And so we're going to meet our commitment to get the $4 billion done.

Rob，我是 Tom。我們承諾要做 40 億美元。我們會做 40 億美元。John 上一季之所以積極推進，是因為我們資本非常充足。因此我們會履行承諾，把這 40 億美元做完。

When you look above that and you say, okay, well, first, we generate a substantial amount of free cash flow. And you say, how we manage it. We're pretty active in it. Obviously, organic growth, investing and leveraging our capabilities, whether that's things like protection services or we've had great investment results because we made some good changes there or share repurchases.

當你往上看並說，好吧，首先，我們產生了相當可觀的自由現金流。接著你會問，我們如何管理它。我們在這方面相當積極。顯然，包括有機成長、投資並運用我們的能力槓桿化，不論是像保障服務這類項目，或是因為我們做了一些很好的調整而帶來很好的投資成果，或是股票回購。

So also not included in the conversation there is we're very active in sourcing capital. So whether that's using $2 billion of preferred stock to take out common -- what we do with reinsurance. We sold our life business and we sold our health and benefits businesses because we thought we could deploy the capital at higher returns in other places, even though they're both really good businesses. So we think about it holistically, and we use this capital management framework from an enterprise standpoint. So that's the way we think about capital.

另外，剛才那段討論中沒有提到的是，我們在籌措資本方面也非常積極。因此，不論是運用20億美元的優先股來替換普通股——或是我們在再保險上的作法。我們出售了壽險業務，也出售了健康與福利業務，因為我們認為即使它們都是非常好的業務，我們仍能在其他地方以更高的報酬率部署這些資本。因此我們以整體角度來思考，並從企業層面使用這套資本管理框架。這就是我們看待資本的方式。

Obviously, the best opportunity is increase organic growth. When you look at our ROEs or our return on required capital, all of which are great. Investments is another place we've done really well. We've done exceptionally well with buying a couple of businesses.

顯然，最好的機會是提升有機成長。當你看我們的ROE或必要資本報酬率，這些都很出色。投資也是我們做得非常好的另一個領域。我們在收購幾家企業方面也表現得特別好。

So Protection Plan, Square Trade, more than 10 times its size. We paid $1.4 billion for it and made over $80 million in the first six months of this year. National General, we paid $4 billion gross. We sold some businesses, and it's more than double its size.

例如Protection Plan、SquareTrade，規模都成長到原來的10倍以上。我們以14億美元買下它，而在今年前六個月就賺了超過8,000萬美元。National General，我們以總額40億美元收購。我們出售了一些業務，而它的規模已經成長到原來的兩倍以上。

So when we see something that can help drive growth, then we use shareholders' money to deploy it and leverage those capabilities, which is what you would expect us to. Obviously, share repurchases, John talked a lot about that. We're not afraid of share repurchases.

因此，當我們看到能夠推動成長的機會時，我們就會運用股東的資金去部署，並槓桿化那些能力，這也正是你會期待我們做的。當然，股票回購方面，John已經談了很多。我們不害怕股票回購。

It's better than sitting on it and not getting a good return. But so we look at all three of them and just think, like what's the right thing to do from an enterprise standpoint. And the good news is we generate enough capital that we can do many of these things at the same time.

這總比把資金放著卻拿不到好報酬要好。因此我們會同時看這三個方向，並從企業整體角度思考：什麼才是正確的做法。好消息是，我們產生的資本足夠多，因此可以同時做其中許多事情。

Yeah, a lot of options. And then I just wanted to follow up on ALLIE. It sounds like, clearly, there's a lot of exciting opportunities. Maybe you could just talk about how you expect the results of ALLIE to eventually show up in the income statement, particularly between expense, loss ratio and growth over time.

是的，有很多選項。另外我想追問一下ALLIE。聽起來很明顯有很多令人振奮的機會。也許你可以談談，你預期ALLIE的成果最終會如何反映在損益表上，特別是在費用、損失率以及隨時間推進的成長之間。

Well, of course, first, we haven't completely built it or deployed it. So some of this is just speculation. But I would say positive benefits to all those. I think ALLIE should help us reduce our expenses. Jess has already got a lot of work going on to take work out of agent offices, which will reduce our distribution expenses.

當然，首先，我們還沒有把它完全建好或全面部署。所以其中一些只是推測。但我會說，對你提到的那些面向都會帶來正面效益。我認為ALLIE應該能幫助我們降低費用。Jess已經在推動很多工作，把一些工作從代理人辦公室移出，這將降低我們的通路費用。

We think there's a bunch of other expenses that can help us reduce. We think it can help us be more accurate in pricing, more accurate in our claims. We think it can -- one of the things that agentic AI will help us do is connect the highly sophisticated individual things we do, whether that's buying leads, pricing, which distribution channel ALLIE should be routed to that it can help us be a lot more effective in growth.

我們認為還有一大堆其他費用也能協助降低。我們認為它能讓我們在定價上更精準、在理賠上更精準。我們認為——代理式AI能幫助我們做的一件事，是把我們所做的各種高度複雜、彼此獨立的事情串聯起來，不論是購買名單、定價、以及ALLIE應該導流到哪一個分銷通路，讓我們在成長上更有效率。

So we think it's going to add just a really positive thing for us to do. I can't give you specific numbers how much growth is going to do or how much it's going to do in expenses. But right now, we see lots of opportunity. We're very optimistic about where that will take us.

因此我們認為這會為我們帶來非常正面的增益。我無法給你具體數字，說它會帶來多少成長或能節省多少費用。但就目前而言，我們看到很多機會。我們對它將帶領我們走向何處非常樂觀。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon，摩根大通。

I was wondering if you could provide perspective on new application growth in personal auto. So last year, apps grew about 25%. So far this year, I think you're tracking to high single digits.

我想請你們就個人汽車保險的新投保申請成長提供一些觀點。去年申請量大約成長25%。到今年目前為止，我想你們的趨勢大概是高個位數成長。

So the question is, where do you think that moves given the current environment, right? Do you think you hold growth at that level? Or is there a risk of degradation because of just increasing competition?

所以問題是，在目前環境下，你們認為這會如何變化？你們覺得會把成長維持在這個水準嗎？還是因為競爭加劇而有下滑風險？

Pablo, it's Jess Merten. I think overall, we believe we can continue to fuel growth in new issued applications across all three channels. You saw we continue to have strength in direct, and that is because we're investing in sophistication, making sure that we get the right leads and the close rates are effective. So we will continue to invest in refining. We think there's opportunity indirect.

Pablo，我是Jess Merten。整體而言，我們相信我們能持續在三個通路推動新核發保單申請的成長。你看到我們在直銷通路仍然強勁，這是因為我們在投資提升精準度，確保取得正確的名單，並讓成交率有效。因此我們會持續投資並精進。我們認為間接通路也有機會。

As Tom mentioned, we're also working with our exclusive agent channel to make sure that they're focused on the highest value work. And we think that's going to result in continued increases in productivity, and they do continue to be more productive than they've been in the past.

如Tom提到的，我們也在與專屬代理人通路合作，確保他們把重心放在最高價值的工作上。我們認為這將帶來生產力的持續提升，而且他們確實也持續比過去更有效率。

And the final piece of that, of course, is to keep the new issued application engine running as the independent agent channel. We've had a lot of success there, but we think there's a lot of opportunity, particularly in the middle market where we're gaining some traction with, as I mentioned, bringing products to market that they can bundle in auto and home together to drive affordability for the customer.

最後一塊，當然就是讓新核發申請的引擎持續運轉，也就是獨立代理人通路。我們在那裡取得了很多成功，但我們認為仍有很大機會，特別是在中端市場；如我提到的，我們正把產品推向市場，讓他們能把汽車與住宅保險一起打包，提升客戶的可負擔性。

But it's a really great solution and it's some of our best products. So overall, I feel confident in our ability to continue to drive new business going forward across all three channels.

但這是一個非常好的解決方案，也是我們一些最好的產品。因此整體而言，我對我們未來在三個通路持續推動新業務的能力很有信心。

And I guess for my follow-up, I'm going to flip to the retention side, right? So many in the industry have talked about more customer shopping. And I guess the question is, can you talk about how personal auto retention has been trending for you? And have you seen any retention benefits from your push to provide your current customers greater value?

那我追問一下，我想轉到續保面向。業界很多人都談到客戶比價行為增加。我想問的是，你們能否談談個人汽車保險的續保率趨勢如何？以及你們推動為現有客戶提供更高價值，是否帶來任何續保上的好處？

Overall, retention has stabilized for us recently. There are a lot of shoppers, but that's been the case now for some time, right? I don't think it's more than it was, say, a year ago, but they're shopping. And so we have invested, as you mentioned, in programs like SAVE. We think SAVE has had a retention benefit certainly for the customers that we targeted. And at this point, we're sort of feeling like we've got a stable retention trend.

整體而言，我們的續保率最近已經趨於穩定。確實有很多人在比價，但這種情況其實已經持續一段時間了。我不認為比一年前更嚴重，但他們確實在比價。因此我們如你所提到的，投資了像SAVE這樣的方案。我們認為SAVE確實帶來了續保效益，至少對我們鎖定的客群是如此。而目前我們的感受是，續保趨勢大致穩定。

Now some of that, of course, you have to really look a little bit deeper by segment, by risk segment, by risk type and what -- frankly, by product type to really understand what overall retention is. But when we look at it at that granular level, we feel like retention trends are stable and that SAVE was the right thing to do. It's working.

當然，其中一部分你必須按區隔更深入地看：按風險區隔、風險類型，以及——坦白說——按產品類型，才能真正理解整體續保率的狀況。但當我們以那樣的細緻程度來看時，我們覺得續保趨勢是穩定的，而SAVE是正確的做法。它正在發揮作用。

Same is true for the things that we're doing to work with our exclusive agents to invest in relationships, which we think will have retention benefits. So overall, the retention trend feels stable.

我們與專屬代理人合作、投資關係經營所做的事情也是如此，我們認為這將帶來續保效益。因此整體而言，續保趨勢感覺穩定。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

For my first question, I guess I'm looking at slide 8, right, you guys provided some good disclosure, right, on the adjusted underlying combined ratio, right, going back, I guess, to 2022. Year-to-date, right, you guys are running at around an 88.5%.

我的第一個問題，我想是看第8頁投影片，你們提供了一些不錯的揭露，關於調整後的基礎綜合率，回溯到我想是2022年。年初至今，你們大約在88.5%左右。

Obviously, well below, right? I think you guys say you target a mid-90s across the cycle in auto. Obviously, things have been favorable. So how do you, I guess, think about just where you are now relative to that mid-90s target when you think about, right, prices slowing a bit?

顯然，遠低於那個水準，對吧？我想你們說過，在汽車險的景氣循環中，你們的目標是把綜合率維持在90%中段左右。顯然，近況一直相當有利。所以當你們在思考——對吧——價格漲勢稍微放緩時，你們如何看待目前相對於那個90%中段目標的位置？

Obviously, frequency and severity will be what they will be. But as you think out not just this year, but over the next couple of years, how do you think about a normalization within profitability within the auto book?

顯然，出險頻率與損失嚴重度會是它們本來的樣子。但當你們不只看今年、而是看未來幾年時，你們如何看待汽車險簿（auto book）獲利能力回歸常態的過程？

Slide 8 was really to show how quickly we can move when we need to. So I would really focus on the far left-hand side. So we moved the combined ratio by over 7 points in a year in response to a huge increase in cost. And as you know well, because we price on a lag basis, that's no small feat getting that done.

第8頁投影片主要是要展示：當我們需要時，我們能以多快的速度調整。所以我會把重點放在最左邊那一側。面對成本大幅上升，我們在一年內把綜合率改善了超過7個百分點。而且如你很清楚的，因為我們的定價是有滯後（lag）的，要做到這點並不容易。

So what I would say is that same adaptability applies to the question you're raising. So if you look -- Jess also showed the rate increases over a number of quarters, and it's been flat for a while, and we're still making really good returns, and we're growing.

所以我要說的是，同樣的適應能力也適用於你提出的問題。如果你看——Jess也展示了跨好幾個季度的費率調升，最近一段時間其實是持平的，但我們仍然能創造非常好的報酬，而且我們也在成長。

So we are always looking to grow as fast as we can, and we're looking to earn good attractive returns and be competitive. And we've been able to do that. Whether that means we have to go up from the far right-hand side up to the mid-90s, we don't have a goal on that.

所以我們一直在看如何盡可能快地成長，同時也要賺取良好且具吸引力的報酬並保持競爭力。而我們一直做得到。至於這是否意味著我們必須從最右邊那個水準往上回到90%中段，我們並沒有把那當作目標。

What we said is in the mid-90s, you're making a really attractive return on required capital. So I think that's the message we believe is we're growing and we're earning really, really attractive returns on capital. So that should be good for shareholders.

我們說的是：在90%中段的綜合率下，你能在所需資本上賺到非常具吸引力的報酬。所以我認為我們想傳達的訊息是：我們在成長，同時也在資本上賺取非常、非常具吸引力的報酬。這對股東應該是好事。

And then my follow-up question, just within policies in force, right, just trying to get a sense as you guys are looking at current growth trends, I guess, across both captive, your independent agent and your direct business. Can you just give us a sense if there's different trends across any of the channels that you're currently seeing from an overall policy growth perspective?

接著我的追問是，關於在保單數（policies in force）方面——我想了解的是，當你們觀察目前的成長趨勢時，涵蓋 captive（專屬/自營）、獨立代理人以及直銷業務等通路。你們能否說明一下，從整體保單成長的角度來看，目前在各通路之間是否看到不同的趨勢？

Well, you thought we broke out the growth by channel, and it's very balanced. Maybe another way to answer the question is about why do consumers choose these various channels? So if you start with -- people when they're making a choice on insurance, they're first like, okay, how easy is it? And how comfortable do I feel buying insurance? And then what's the cost, the relative cost?

嗯，你以為我們把成長按通路拆開來看，而它其實相當均衡。也許換個方式回答：消費者為什麼會選擇不同通路？如果從一開始談——人們在做保險選擇時，首先會想：好，買起來有多容易？以及我買保險時感覺有多安心？然後才是成本，也就是相對成本是多少？

So you've seen a growth in the direct channel, which are people who don't really want that much help buying it. They're really looking to do cost, and that's gotten easier over time. That channel is also growing a lot because there's been so much advertising going through it. So I don't -- I wouldn't underestimate how much that moves people from one channel to another.

所以你看到直銷通路在成長，這些人其實不太想在購買過程中得到太多協助。他們更在意成本，而這些年來購買流程也變得更容易。這個通路也成長很快，因為大量廣告都投放在這裡。所以我不會——我不會低估廣告在把人從一個通路移到另一個通路上所造成的影響。

In the independent agent channel, those are people who like, look, I don't really feel like dealing with this myself, don't really trust insurance companies that much. So I want somebody that can move around between those. And you've seen we've grown rapidly there. That's a good value proposition as well, and people are prepared to pay more for that than they do direct.

在獨立代理人通路，這些人會覺得：你看，我不太想自己處理這些事，也不太信任保險公司。所以我想要有人可以在不同公司之間幫我比較、轉換。而你也看到我們在那個通路成長很快。那也是很好的價值主張，而且人們願意為此付出比直銷更高的價格。

And then in between that is our exclusive agents, which are people who want some help, but they believe in a brand. And they don't feel like they need to go out and shop around and have somebody look at a bunch of different companies. And we've obviously -- Jess can talk about what we've done to improve that channel.

介於兩者之間的是我們的專屬代理人（exclusive agents），這些人想要一些協助，但他們信任某個品牌。他們不覺得需要到處比價，或找人去看一堆不同公司。而我們顯然——Jess可以談談我們為了改善這個通路所做的事。

I would point out, we sell in the direct channel, the same product we sell to our agents, but it's 7% cheaper in the direct channel because it doesn't come with an agent. Like can people get that, our agents get it. So we think there's -- it's really when you look at the customer segments, there's always going to be people in all those segments, and we just want to be available for all.

我想指出的是：我們在直銷通路賣的產品，和賣給代理人的產品是同一個，但直銷通路便宜7%，因為它不包含代理人服務。大家能理解這點嗎？我們的代理人是理解的。所以我們認為——當你看客戶分群時，這些分群裡永遠都會有人存在，而我們只是希望在所有分群都能提供服務。

In each of them, we have work to do to make sure we're as effective and efficient as we can. So you've seen we've made huge progress in our direct channel, and you've seen that growing. But I would say we're not done. We're still not industry-leading in terms of our effectiveness and efficiency in direct.

在每一個通路，我們都有工作要做，以確保我們盡可能有效率、也盡可能有效能。所以你看到我們在直銷通路已經取得巨大進展，也看到它在成長。但我會說我們還沒做完。就直銷的有效能與效率而言，我們仍然不是業界領先。

The end of the exclusive agent channel, Jess, maybe you want to talk about the things we're doing there to improve effectiveness and efficiency?

至於專屬代理人通路的部分，Jess，你要不要談談我們正在做哪些事來提升有效能與效率？

Yeah, absolutely. So our exclusive agents have been sort of foundational to our strategy for a long time. And so we're working with them to make them more efficient, more effective and really put them in a position to deliver what clients value, which we know they can do.

好的，當然。我們的專屬代理人長期以來一直是我們策略的基石之一。因此我們正與他們合作，讓他們更有效率、更有效能，並真正讓他們處於能交付客戶所重視價值的位置——而我們知道他們做得到。

So examples, we're taking routine service tasks off of their plate. People want those things done, but they don't need that done by their exclusive agent. That isn't value. We want them to do the things that reinforce their value proposition.

舉例來說，我們把例行性的服務工作從他們手上移開。人們確實希望那些事情被完成，但不需要由專屬代理人來做。那不是價值所在。我們希望他們去做能強化其價值主張的事情。

We're giving them technology tools that serve up opportunities to engage with customers. It's sort of those moments that matter. We're putting them right in front of our agents so that they have an opportunity to shine and allow our customers to see the value that Allstate agents provide.

我們提供他們科技工具，主動呈現與客戶互動的機會。也就是那些關鍵時刻。我們把這些機會直接放到代理人面前，讓他們有機會發揮，並讓客戶看見Allstate代理人所提供的價值。

Across the system, though, it's more than just that. We're improving the quality of leads so that they have better close rates, so that there's less duplication, which is important to our agents. Product breadth is another thing that we're really investing in to make sure that they can diversify the sources of revenue in their agencies.

不過在整個系統層面，這不只是如此。我們也在提升名單（leads）的品質，讓他們有更高的成交率，同時減少重複分派，這對我們的代理人很重要。產品廣度也是我們正在大力投資的另一項，確保他們能在其代理行中分散收入來源。

So that's going beyond auto and home, which they bundle at very high levels, as Tom mentioned, but also to specialty products like renters and landlords and boats and motorcycles, life and retirement and commercial, as I mentioned before. So we're making sure that our exclusive agents have the full portfolio where they want to meet that broader set of customer needs because we think they're certainly able to do that.

這不只是汽車與住宅險——如Tom提到的，他們在這兩者的綁售比例非常高——也包括租客險、房東險、船舶、機車等專業產品，以及壽險與退休、商業險，如我先前提到的。所以我們確保專屬代理人擁有完整的產品組合，讓他們在希望滿足更廣泛客戶需求時能做到，因為我們認為他們絕對有能力做到。

The final thing I would say about what we're doing to support agents is really focusing on location flexibility. We're giving them the choice on how to best run their small business, right? So if a physical location is important to their business, then they'll have physical locations.

最後一點，我想談談我們支持代理人的作法：我們非常聚焦在據點彈性。我們讓他們可以選擇最適合的方式來經營他們的小型企業，對吧？所以如果實體據點對他們的業務很重要，那他們就會有實體據點。

But the flexibility means that, in some cases, a shared location or no physical location at all works for an agent, and they can still successfully maintain that local presence and grow their business. So we're trying to introduce tools that help them be effective as well as options that allow them to lower their overall cost so that it can continue to be a really strong and productive channel for Allstate.

但彈性也意味著，在某些情況下，共用據點或完全沒有實體據點也能適用於代理人，而他們仍然可以成功維持在地存在並拓展業務。所以我們正嘗試導入一些工具，幫助他們提升有效能，同時也提供選項讓他們降低整體成本，讓這個通路能持續成為Allstate非常強大且高產能的通路。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

Josh Shanker，美國銀行。

I know that monthly PIF reporting is going away. But as June is basically the last month we can do it, I did some back of the envelope calculations and it looks to me like that the homeowners business in terms of policy count is growing faster than it has any time since prior to Hurricane Katrina.

我知道每月PIF（在保保單）報告將要取消。但既然6月基本上是我們最後一個還能這麼做的月份，我做了一些粗略的估算，看起來住宅險業務在保單件數方面的成長速度，比卡崔娜颶風之前的任何時候都更快。

And I know over the past 20 years, you learned a lot about catastrophe management, but you're growing really fast in property. Can you continue to grow at this speed without adding material cat load to your business? And can you talk a little bit about the capital requirements of growing auto, home at the same pace? And I guess, your appetite for monoline homeowners?

我知道在過去20年裡，你們在巨災管理方面學到很多，但你們在財產險的成長非常快。在不為你們的業務增加重大巨災曝險的情況下，你們能否以這樣的速度持續成長？另外，汽車險與住宅險以同樣步調成長時，資本需求大概是什麼樣子？以及我想問一下，你們對單一險種住宅險（monoline homeowners）的承保意願？

Well, Josh, thank you for debunking the conspiracy theory that because we stopped doing monthly things, we had a problem. And our growth is good, and it was good in June, and we like where we're going. So -- and as Jess and Mario both said, we feel like we got plenty of room to pick up market share. So we like what we're doing there.

Josh，首先謝謝你澄清那個陰謀論：我們之所以不再做每月的事情，是因為出了問題。我們的成長表現很好，6月也很好，我們也喜歡目前前進的方向。所以——正如Jess和Mario都提到的，我們覺得還有很大的空間可以提升市占率。因此我們對目前的作法很滿意。

In terms of the growth in homeowners, we're really good at it and other people will make changes that we've already made to try to catch up to us. And those all make sense to me. But it's not like we're sitting around here saying, geez, we've got everything figured out. Let's not continue to make changes.

就住宅險的成長而言，我們做得非常好，而其他人會做出一些我們早就做過的調整，試圖追上我們。這些調整我都覺得合理。但我們並不是坐在這裡說：哎呀，我們什麼都搞定了。所以就不要再繼續做改變了。

So we have new rating plans coming out. We have new sophisticated analytics we're using with individual roofs. And like we've got lots of stuff we're doing to make sure we continue to grow in homeowners. And that starts with getting it priced most accurately for every individual house. So we're good at that.

因此我們會推出新的費率方案。我們也在使用新的、更精密的分析方法，甚至針對每一棟房子的屋頂進行分析。我們正在做很多事情，確保住宅險能持續成長。而這一切的起點，就是把每一棟房子都定價得盡可能精準。所以我們在這方面很擅長。

On top of that, though, your -- the question about catastrophe risk, we manage overall catastrophe risk well. We've got -- we're probably the biggest -- certainly the biggest US buyer of property liability catastrophe insurance. We've got a very complicated program. Chris is going to take that over.

另外，關於你提到的巨災風險問題，我們整體的巨災風險管理做得很好。我們——可能是最大的——至少是美國最大的財產責任巨災再保險買方。我們有一個非常複雜的方案。Chris將會接手負責。

We don't have any restrictions on access to capital to help us manage volatility. Sometimes we choose not to use that capital because we don't think it's in shareholders' best interest, but that's not going to restrict our growth.

我們在取得資本方面沒有任何限制，足以協助我們管理波動。有時候我們選擇不動用那些資本，是因為我們認為那不符合股東的最佳利益，但這不會限制我們的成長。

And so monoline homeowners, we'll take people in any way we can get them. But usually, if you own a home, you've got a car too. So we'd like to get both of those, but we don't restrict people to say, geez, if you won't give us your car, we won't insure your home because we want each product to stand on its own, and we try to avoid subsidization between products because when you do that, you end up, as you would expect, markets' like water, it finds the open hole and the open hole tends to be a low return.

至於單一險種住宅險，我們會用任何方式把客戶納進來。但通常你有房子，也會有車。所以我們希望兩個都能拿到，但我們不會限制客戶說：如果你不把車險給我們，我們就不保你的房子；因為我們希望每個產品都能獨立成立，我們也盡量避免產品之間的交叉補貼，因為一旦這麼做，結果往往如你所預期，市場就像水一樣，會流向那個開口，而那個開口通常是低報酬。

If you sell a product at a low return, hoping you're going to get the other one, that's not usually a good plan. And so we feel good about the ability to grow both homeowners in the exclusive agent channel, which Mario talked about. Jess talked about Custom360, an independent agent channel. And you should also -- I would notice, as you see on the chart, we've done a lot better in the direct channel, and as we improve our direct capabilities, we think that will continue to grow, too.

如果你用低報酬去賣一個產品，期待能拿到另一個產品，那通常不是個好策略。因此我們對於在專屬代理通路（Mario提到的）成長住宅險很有信心。Jess也談到Custom360，也就是獨立代理通路。另外——你也會注意到，從圖表上看，我們在直銷通路的表現也好很多；隨著我們提升直銷能力，我們認為那邊也會持續成長。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

I'm looking at the prior year reserve re-estimates in auto, and they've been fantastic. I mean, 6.6 points this quarter. Each of the last four prior quarters, you've had sizable releases. I think, Tom, you talked about claim effectiveness, the technology ecosystem. Maybe you could help us unpack what's generating these very favorable prior-year reserve re-estimates and whether you think that can continue?

我在看汽車險的前一年準備金重新估計（prior year reserve re-estimates），表現非常亮眼。我是說，本季有6.6個點。過去四個季度中的每一季，你們都有相當可觀的釋出。Tom，我想你提到理賠效能、科技生態系。也許你可以幫我們拆解一下，是什麼在驅動這些非常有利的前一年準備金重新估計？以及你認為這能否持續？

I'll start and then John can jump in if he wants. First, I would say, every quarter, we think we've got reserves as accurate as we can get them. So we don't assume there will be any more coming ever because we think it's as accurate it can.

我先說，然後John如果想補充可以接著說。首先我要說的是，每一季我們都認為準備金已經盡可能精準。所以我們不會假設未來還會再有任何釋出，因為我們認為它已經是能做到的最精準。

Sometimes the estimates you make are higher, and so then you have reserve releases. And that's generally a more favorable place to be relative to you all than in a negative. But we've had the other issue.

有時候你做的估計偏高，因此就會出現準備金釋出。相較於出現不利調整，這通常是更有利的狀態。但我們也曾遇過相反的情況。

I think the difference is really that, one, the inflationary trends have started to come down in certain places, a.k.a Florida, where they put some tort reform in. We're very hopeful that those kinds of trends will continue.

我認為差異主要在於：第一，某些地方的通膨趨勢已開始下降，例如佛羅里達，因為他們推動了一些侵權改革（tort reform）。我們非常希望這類趨勢能持續。

So you might have noticed that Governor Hochul decided to take on increased costs for consumers on auto insurance because of litigation where they passed some laws. It's going to turn into a reality before it becomes an issue for a benefit we can give to customers.

你可能也注意到，Hochul州長決定因為訴訟相關、他們通過的一些法律，而要面對汽車保險對消費者成本上升的問題。在我們能把它轉化為提供給客戶的好處之前，它會先成為現實，然後才會變成一個議題。

But we're hopeful that those kinds of things has happened in Georgia and Louisiana. So we're hoping that there's a trend towards tort reform and getting rid of billboard lawyers that will improve our customers' costs. And therefore, the estimates we've made might not be as high as we thought.

但我們希望這類事情也已在喬治亞州和路易斯安那州發生。所以我們希望侵權改革有一個趨勢，並且能減少那些看板律師（billboard lawyers），從而降低我們客戶的成本。因此，我們先前做的估計可能就不需要像原本想的那麼高。

John, what would you add to that?

John，你會補充什麼？

I'd just add a couple of things, Tom. I look at the -- what we've gone through in the context of a -- it was a pretty -- if you look back over the last five years, it's a pretty volatile inflationary period. So we're looking at coming out of post-COVID inflation period, used car prices that were going up in the upwards of 60%. A lot of other things we've talked about bodily injury and the rest.

Tom，我再補充幾點。我會把我們經歷的事情放在一個背景下看——如果回頭看過去五年，這是一段相當波動的通膨期間。我們正從後COVID的通膨期走出來，二手車價格一度上漲到超過60%。還有很多其他事情，我們也談過人身傷害以及其他項目。

So it's not uncommon for any estimation process as sound as it may be to potentially just adjust aggressively. What we've seen since then, and if you look at the process, this is a consistent process. We have multiple Auditors on the outside that double check our work.

因此，即便估計流程再健全，也不罕見會需要做出較大幅度的調整。而我們從那之後看到的是——如果你看我們的流程，這是一個一致且持續的流程。我們有多家外部審計單位會複核我們的工作。

We're continually responding to trends and new data as it comes in the marketplace and making the best estimate at the time that we have. We've been -- felt comfortable adjusting numbers in recent quarters, partially because of our strong claims team and the good work that they've done. But we absolutely feel good about the numbers that we have in any quarter, and that's where we are now.

我們會持續因應市場上出現的新趨勢與新數據，並在當下做出我們能做的最佳估計。近幾季我們之所以能更有信心地調整數字，部分原因是我們強大的理賠團隊以及他們做出的優秀成果。但我們對於任何一季所呈現的數字都非常有信心，而這就是我們目前的狀態。

Okay. Thank you for investing your time with us. I would close with -- at this price, you can't get operational excellence, sustainable growth or capital generation anywhere else. Thank you very much. Bye.

好的。感謝各位投入時間與我們交流。最後我想說——以目前這個價格，你在其他地方找不到同時具備營運卓越、可持續成長與資本創造的標的。非常感謝。再見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

各位女士、先生，感謝您參與今天的電話會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以掛線。祝您有美好的一天。