American International Group Inc (AIG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to AIG's Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. This conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 AIG 2022 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。正在錄製此會議。

Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan. Please go ahead.

現在這個時候，我想將會議轉交給 Quentin McMillan。請繼續。

Thanks very much, and good morning. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. AIG's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. Except as required by the applicable securities laws, AIG is under no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change.

非常感謝，早上好。今天的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響。這些陳述不是對未來業績或事件的保證，而是基於管理層當前的預期。 AIG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件提供了有關可能導致實際結果或事件發生重大差異的重要因素的詳細信息。除適用證券法要求外，如果情況或管理層的估計或意見發生變化，AIG 沒有義務更新任何前瞻性陳述。

Additionally, today's remarks may refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at www.aig.com.

此外，今天的評論可能涉及非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的收益發布、財務補充和收益報告中包含此類措施與最具可比性的 GAAP 數據的對賬，所有這些都可以在我們的網站 www.aig.com 上找到。

Finally, today's remarks will include a discussion of the financial results of AIG's Life and Retirement segment and Other Operations on the same basis as prior quarters, which is how we expect to continue to report Life and Retirement and Other Operations until the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial.

最後，今天的評論將包括在與前幾個季度相同的基礎上討論 AIG 的人壽和退休部門以及其他業務的財務業績，這就是我們期望在 Corebridge Financial 拆分之前繼續報告人壽和退休業務以及其他業務的方式.

AIG's segments and U.S. GAAP financial results, as well as AIG's key financial metrics with respect thereto, differ from those reported by Corebridge Financial. As such, we will be intentional when referring to AIG's Life and Retirement segment versus Corebridge Financial when commenting on financial results. Corebridge Financial will host its first earnings call post IPO next week on November 9, and its management team will provide additional details on the Corebridge Financial third quarter results.

AIG 的部門和美國 GAAP 財務業績，以及 AIG 的關鍵財務指標與 Corebridge Financial 報告的不同。因此，在評論財務業績時，我們將有意提及 AIG 的人壽和退休部門與 Corebridge Financial。 Corebridge Financial 將於下週 11 月 9 日舉行首次公開募股後的首次財報電話會議，其管理團隊將提供有關 Corebridge Financial 第三季度業績的更多詳細信息。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官彼得扎菲諾。

Thank you, Quentin. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter financial results, which I'm pleased to report were very strong, along with the excellent progress we've made on our strategic priorities. Following my remarks, Shane will provide more detail on the third quarter financial results, and then we'll take questions. Kevin Hogan, David McElroy and Mark Lyons will join us for the Q&A portion of today's call.

謝謝你，昆汀。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們第三季度的財務業績，我很高興地報告這非常強勁，以及我們在戰略重點方面取得的出色進展。在我發言之後，Shane 將提供有關第三季度財務結果的更多細節，然後我們將回答問題。 Kevin Hogan、David McElroy 和 Mark Lyons 將加入我們參加今天電話會議的問答部分。

The third quarter represented an inflection point for AIG, with important milestones achieved across the organization. Our team once again demonstrated its ability to execute on significant strategic initiatives that position AIG for a strong future, to apply discipline and the successful execution of these initiatives and to achieve high-quality outcomes even against a backdrop of very complicated capital and insurance markets.

第三季度代表了 AIG 的轉折點，整個組織實現了重要的里程碑。我們的團隊再次展示了其執行重大戰略舉措的能力，這些戰略舉措為 AIG 奠定了強大的未來，即使在非常複雜的資本和保險市場背景下，也能運用紀律和成功執行這些舉措，並取得高質量的成果。

Before I cover the third quarter in more detail, I'd like to comment on the successful Corebridge Financial IPO, which we completed in mid-September despite very challenging equity capital market conditions. On our second quarter earnings call, we explained that volatility in the capital markets was significantly elevated and that attempting to complete an IPO at that time would not have been in the best interest of AIG, Corebridge or our stakeholders.

在我更詳細地介紹第三季度之前，我想對 Corebridge Financial 的成功 IPO 發表評論，儘管股權資本市場條件非常具有挑戰性，我們還是在 9 月中旬完成了此次 IPO。在我們第二季度的財報電話會議上，我們解釋說，資本市場的波動性顯著升高，當時試圖完成 IPO 不符合 AIG、Corebridge 或我們的利益相關者的最佳利益。

As a result, we decided to defer the IPO and revisit timing in the third quarter. We knew that there would be limited open windows and remained committed to completing a transaction as soon as we believed an appropriate opportunity was available. Throughout the summer, our team did a remarkable job and worked diligently on the operational separation of Corebridge from AIG as well as to prepare the business for a successful IPO.

因此，我們決定推遲 IPO 並在第三季度重新審視時機。我們知道打開的窗口將是有限的，並且一旦我們認為合適的機會可用，我們將繼續致力於完成交易。整個夏天，我們的團隊都非常出色地完成了 Corebridge 與 AIG 的業務分離，並為成功的 IPO 做好了準備。

As we noted on our last call, we had already increased the targeted savings program at Corebridge from an initial range of $200 million to $300 million to $400 million within 2 to 3 years. With the additional time available pre-IPO, the business accelerated certain actions and is now expected to deliver run rate savings of over $100 million by the end of 2022, ahead of our original schedule.

正如我們在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，我們已經在 2 到 3 年內將 Corebridge 的目標儲蓄計劃從最初的 2 億美元增加到 3 億美元再到 4 億美元。由於 IPO 前有更多可用時間，該公司加快了某些行動，現在預計到 2022 年底將比我們原定的計劃提前節省超過 1 億美元的運行率。

We were also prepared to secure the capital structure of Corebridge prior to the IPO and accessed the debt markets in late summer during a short window when conditions became more favorable. In August, Corebridge issued $1 billion of hybrid debt securities and in early September, drew down on a $1.5 billion bank facility to complete its initial capital structure. Using part of the net proceeds from these debt transactions, Corebridge closed out the remaining $1.9 billion due to AIG under a promissory note.

我們還準備在 Corebridge 首次公開募股之前確保其資本結構，並在夏末條件變得更加有利的短時間內進入債務市場。 8 月，Corebridge 發行了 10 億美元的混合債務證券，並於 9 月初動用了 15 億美元的銀行貸款以完成其初始資本結構。使用這些債務交易的部分淨收益，Corebridge 根據期票結清了欠 AIG 的剩餘 19 億美元。

Throughout this time, we also engage in continuous discussions with our financial and other advisers about equity market conditions, investor sentiment and our ability to execute the IPO in a complicated market. While equity markets remain uncertain, volatility was not as extreme leading up to Labor Day. We were confident we could complete the IPO within an acceptable valuation range, and we continue to believe it was very important for the future of AIG and Corebridge to establish Corebridge as a public company in 2022.

在這段時間裡，我們還與我們的財務和其他顧問就股票市場狀況、投資者情緒以及我們在復雜市場中執行 IPO 的能力進行了持續討論。儘管股市仍不確定，但勞動節前的波動並沒有那麼劇烈。我們有信心能夠在可接受的估值範圍內完成首次公開募股，並且我們仍然認為，在 2022 年將 Corebridge 建立為上市公司對於 AIG 和 Corebridge 的未來非常重要。

Throughout the third quarter, we also made significant progress in the implementation of a new investment management model for AIG and Corebridge. As you know, in mid-2021, we finalized a strategic partnership with Blackstone, which includes the transfer of $50 billion of Corebridge AUM to Blackstone, with that number growing to $92.5 billion over 6 years.

在整個第三季度，我們在為 AIG 和 Corebridge 實施新的投資管理模式方面也取得了重大進展。如您所知，在 2021 年年中，我們與 Blackstone 達成了戰略合作夥伴關係，其中包括將 500 億美元的 Corebridge AUM 轉讓給 Blackstone，這一數字在 6 年內增長到 925 億美元。

In addition, earlier this year, we announced a partnership with BlackRock, under which we will transfer up to $150 billion of liquid assets from both AIG and Corebridge. To date, we have transferred $100 billion of assets, with $37 billion moving from AIG and $63 billion moving from Corebridge. The complexity of operationally separating corporate from AIG as well as implementing our new operating model for investment management cannot be understated.

此外，今年早些時候，我們宣布與貝萊德建立合作夥伴關係，根據該合作夥伴關係，我們將從 AIG 和 Corebridge 轉移高達 1500 億美元的流動資產。迄今為止，我們已經轉移了 1000 億美元的資產，其中 370 億美元來自 AIG，630 億美元來自 Corebridge。將公司業務從 AIG 中分離出來以及實施我們新的投資管理運營模式的複雜性不容低估。

Keep in mind, these businesses have been in a combined structure for over 2 decades, with aspects of each business shifting over time between segments until just a few years ago. And until we announced our intention to separate Corebridge from AIG in late 2020, investments was a stand-alone unit at AIG, servicing all businesses across the organization. Our partnerships with Blackstone and BlackRock enable us to accelerate the reshaping of our investment portfolios.

請記住，這些業務在超過 20 年的時間裡一直處於組合結構中，直到幾年前，每個業務的各個方面都隨著時間的推移在各個部門之間發生變化。在我們宣布打算在 2020 年底將 Corebridge 從 AIG 中分離出來之前，投資是 AIG 的一個獨立部門，為整個組織的所有業務提供服務。我們與 Blackstone 和 BlackRock 的合作夥伴關係使我們能夠加速重塑我們的投資組合。

With respect to the financial commitments Corebridge made as part of the IPO, I'd like to reiterate them as they too will create significant value for shareholders over time. We continue to expect Corebridge to pay $600 million in annual dividends, with its first quarterly dividend of $148 million declared 15 days after the IPO close and already paid, to have the financial flexibility to repurchase shares or reduce AIG's ownership stake as early as the second quarter of 2023 and to achieve a return on equity of 12% to 14% over the next 24 months.

關於 Corebridge 在 IPO 中做出的財務承諾，我想重申一下，因為隨著時間的推移，它們也將為股東創造巨大的價值。我們繼續預計 Corebridge 將支付 6 億美元的年度股息，其第一季度股息為 1.48 億美元，在 IPO 結束後 15 天宣布並已經支付，以具備財務靈活性，最早在第二個季度回購股票或減少 AIG 的所有權股份2023 年季度，並在未來 24 個月內實現 12% 至 14% 的股本回報率。

Completing the Corebridge IPO within a very narrow window was a testament to the careful preparation, hard work and dedication of our teams at AIG and Corebridge and to the quality of the business. This was a major accomplishment for our teams, and we are all very proud of the outcome.

在非常短的時間內完成 Corebridge 首次公開募股證明了我們在 AIG 和 Corebridge 的團隊的精心準備、辛勤工作和奉獻精神以及業務質量。這對我們的團隊來說是一項重大成就，我們都為結果感到非常自豪。

Turning to other highlights in the third quarter. Adjusted after-tax net income per diluted common share was $0.66. General Insurance delivered very strong performance and continued profitability improvement despite significant natural CATs in the quarter. The accident year combined ratio, ex CATs, was 88.4%, a 210 basis point improvement year-over-year and the 17th consecutive quarter of improvement.

轉向第三季度的其他亮點。調整後每股攤薄普通股稅後淨收入為 0.66 美元。儘管本季度存在重大自然巨災，但普通保險仍實現了非常強勁的業績和持續的盈利能力改善。不包括 CAT 的事故年度綜合比率為 88.4%，同比提高 210 個基點，並且是連續第 17 個季度提高。

This result was primarily due to Global Commercial, which had an excellent quarter, with an accident year combined ratio, ex CATs, of 83%, a 590 basis point improvement year-over-year, driven by international commercial which had an impressive 80.4% accident year combined ratio, ex CATs. The accident year combined ratio was 98.2%, a 200 basis point improvement year-over-year. The calendar year combined ratio was 97.3%, a 240 basis point improvement year-over-year.

這一結果主要歸功於全球商業，該季度表現出色，事故年綜合比率（不包括 CAT）為 83%，同比提高 590 個基點，國際商業的推動力高達 80.4%事故年綜合比率，不包括 CAT。事故年綜合發生率為 98.2%，同比提高 200 個基點。日曆年綜合成本率為 97.3%，同比提高 240 個基點。

CAT losses in the third quarter were $600 million, or 9.8 points of the combined ratio. Shane will break this number down for you in his remarks. Our CAT total includes losses from AIG Re related to Hurricane Ian, which came in at $125 million. This result reflects the terrific work the team has done to reduce peak zone exposure in our assumed reinsurance business, particularly in Florida, where we've reduced limits deployed by approximately 60% since 2018 and have minimal exposure to Florida domestic insurers.

第三季度 CAT 虧損為 6 億美元，佔合併比率的 9.8 個百分點。 Shane 將在他的評論中為您分解這個數字。我們的 CAT 總額包括 AIG Re 與颶風伊恩相關的損失，損失為 1.25 億美元。這一結果反映了團隊為減少我們假定的再保險業務中的峰值區域敞口所做的出色工作，特別是在佛羅里達州，自 2018 年以來，我們已將部署的限額減少了約 60%，並且對佛羅里達州國內保險公司的敞口最小。

Considering Hurricane Ian and other CATs in the third quarter, our CAT losses validate the quality of our underwriting, our reinsurance strategy and our ability to successfully manage volatility. With respect to PYD, there was a favorable release in the third quarter of $72 million or 90 basis points of the calendar year combined ratio.

考慮到第三季度的颶風伊恩和其他 CAT，我們的 CAT 損失驗證了我們的承保質量、我們的再保險策略以及我們成功管理波動性的能力。關於 PYD，第三季度有 7200 萬美元或日曆年綜合比率的 90 個基點的有利釋放。

In Life and Retirement, the business had another quarter of strong sales with premiums and deposits coming in at approximately $9 billion, up from $7.2 billion in the prior year, with positive year-over-year growth in each of its 4 business segments. Effective capital management remains a priority for AIG. In the third quarter, we repurchased $1.3 billion of common stock and paid $247 million of dividends.

在人壽和退休業務方面，該業務又迎來了強勁的銷售季度，保費和存款收入約為 90 億美元，高於去年的 72 億美元，其 4 個業務部門均實現了同比正增長。有效的資本管理仍然是 AIG 的首要任務。第三季度，我們回購了 13 億美元的普通股並支付了 2.47 億美元的股息。

We also announced $1.8 billion of debt repayments, which we commenced in the third quarter and closed last week, further strengthening our balance sheet. And lastly, AIG ended the third quarter with $6.5 billion of parent liquidity.

我們還宣布了 18 億美元的債務償還，我們從第三季度開始並於上週結束，進一步加強了我們的資產負債表。最後，AIG 以 65 億美元的母公司流動性結束了第三季度。

Now let me provide additional detail on general insurance and the continued sustained improvement and very good absolute performance in our underwriting. When referring to gross and net premiums written, note that all numbers are on an FX-adjusted basis. Gross premiums written increased 5% to $9.2 billion, with global commercial growing 8% and global personal decreasing 3%. Net premiums written increased 3% to $6.4 billion.

現在讓我提供有關一般保險的更多詳細信息，以及我們在承保方面的持續改進和非常好的絕對錶現。在提及毛保費和淨保費時，請注意所有數字均經過外匯調整。毛承保保費增長 5% 至 92 億美元，其中全球商業保費增長 8%，全球個人保費下降 3%。淨承保保費增長 3% 至 64 億美元。

The growth was in our global commercial business, which grew 6%, with global Personal decreasing 4%. North America commercial net premiums written increased 7%, and international commercial net premiums written increased 5% or approximately 8%, excluding the impact of nonrenewal and cancellations related to known Russia exposure.

增長來自我們的全球商業業務，增長了 6%，全球個人業務下降了 4%。北美商業淨承保保費增長 7%，國際商業淨承保保費增長 5% 或約 8%，不包括與已知俄羅斯風險相關的非續保和取消的影響。

In North America Commercial, we saw very strong growth in net premiums written in Lexington led by wholesale property, retail property and Glatfelter. In International Commercial, we also saw strong growth in net premiums written in global specialty, led by international specialty, marine and energy as well as property.

在北美商業，我們看到列剋星敦的淨保費增長非常強勁，主要是批發物業、零售物業和 Glatfelter。在國際商業業務方面，我們還看到在國際專業、海事和能源以及財產的帶動下，全球專業的淨保費收入強勁增長。

In global commercial, We also had very strong renewal retention of 85% in our in-force portfolio, with North America up 400 basis points year-over-year to 86% and international at 85%. As a reminder, we calculate renewal retention prior to the impact of rate and exposure changes. And across global commercial, our new business continues to be strong. North America new business was $458 million led by Lexington. International new business was $474 million led by specialty.

在全球商業領域，我們的有效投資組合的續約保留率也非常強勁，達到 85%，其中北美地區同比增長 400 個基點至 86%，國際地區為 85%。提醒一下，我們會在利率和風險敞口變化的影響之前計算續訂保留率。在全球商業領域，我們的新業務繼續保持強勁勢頭。北美新業務為 4.58 億美元，由 Lexington 領銜。以專業為首的國際新業務為 4.74 億美元。

Turning to rate. Momentum continued in North America commercial with overall rate increases of 9% in the third quarter, excluding workers' compensation. Areas within North America Commercial achieved double-digit rate increases. These included Lexington, which increased 20%; cyber, which increased 32%; and excess casualty, which increased 12%. International commercial rate increases were 6%, driven by Talbot, EMEA, Asia Pacific, each of which increased 10%.

轉向率。北美商業繼續保持增長勢頭，第三季度整體費率增長 9%，不包括工傷賠償。北美商業區實現了兩位數的增長率。其中包括列剋星敦，增長了 20%；網絡，增長了 32%；和超額傷亡，增加了 12%。在 Talbot、EMEA、亞太地區各增長 10% 的推動下，國際商業費率增長 6%。

Our team analyzes loss cost trends every quarter. On our last call, we indicated that our loss cost trend view in the second quarter for North America Commercial lines had migrated upwards to 6%. Due to inflationary and other related factors that have resulted in an increase in property loss costs, we are increasing our aggregate loss cost trend to 6.5%, both in North America and international. Overall, we continue to receive rate above loss cost trends, which contributes to margin expansion on a written basis.

我們的團隊每個季度都會分析損失成本趨勢。在上次電話會議中，我們表示我們對第二季度北美商業線路的損失成本趨勢觀點已上移至 6%。由於通貨膨脹和其他相關因素導致財產損失成本增加，我們將北美和國際的總損失成本趨勢提高到 6.5%。總體而言，我們繼續收到高於損失成本趨勢的利率，這有助於在書面基礎上擴大利潤率。

Moving to global Personal Insurance. We continue our work across the portfolio to prioritize growth in A&H, to reposition our capabilities in Japan Personal and to transform our North America high net worth portfolio. Starting with North America, personal net premiums written declined 11%, driven by warranty as well as our ongoing reshaping of our high net worth business that we've discussed on prior calls.

轉向全球人身保險。我們繼續在整個投資組合中開展工作，優先考慮 A&H 的增長，重新定位我們在日本個人業務的能力，並轉變我們的北美高淨值投資組合。從北美開始，個人淨保費承保下降了 11%，這是由於保修以及我們在之前的電話會議上討論過的對高淨值業務的持續重塑。

We continue to make progress in our high net worth business by reducing peak zone aggregation, improving the overall quality of the portfolio, transitioning a portion of the portfolio where appropriate to excess and surplus lines and enhancing the value we offer to clients. Third quarter results reflect this repositioning, with North America's gross and net premiums written declining as we continue to reduce exposures and increase reinsurance sessions to mitigate volatility.

我們通過減少峰值區域聚合、提高投資組合的整體質量、在適當的情況下將部分投資組合轉移到超額和盈餘線以及提高我們為客戶提供的價值，繼續在高淨值業務方面取得進展。第三季度業績反映了這種重新定位，隨著我們繼續減少風險敞口並增加再保險時段以減輕波動性，北美的毛保費和淨保費收入下降。

North America Personal Insurance's premium declines were partially offset by continued momentum in individual travel and Personal A&H. In International Personal, net premiums written declined 2% due to a reduction in warranty that was partially offset by a rebound in individual travel as well as growth in A&H, which is our largest and most profitable International Personal portfolio.

個人旅行和個人 A&H 的持續增長勢頭部分抵消了北美人身保險的保費下降。在國際個人業務中，淨保費收入下降了 2%，原因是保修減少，部分被個人旅行的反彈以及 A&H 的增長所抵消，A&H 是我們最大、利潤最高的國際個人業務組合。

One item to note in the International Personal Insurance third quarter accident year loss ratio is that it reflects approximately $100 million of losses related to COVID claims in Japan and, to a lesser extent, Taiwan. These losses were primarily due to the Japanese government instituting a policy relating to deemed hospitalizations resulting from COVID, which impacted our A&H book.

國際人身保險第三季度事故年損失率中需要注意的一項是，它反映了日本和台灣（在較小程度上）與 COVID 索賠相關的約 1 億美元損失。這些損失主要是由於日本政府制定了一項與 COVID 導致的認定住院有關的政策，這影響了我們的 A&H 賬簿。

This government policy was revised in the third quarter, and as a result, we expect the issue to have a de minimis impact in future quarters, starting with the fourth quarter of this year. Additionally, some of these losses related to cleanup expense benefits offered to small businesses, which AIG no longer provides.

該政府政策在第三季度進行了修訂，因此，我們預計該問題將從今年第四季度開始對未來幾個季度產生微乎其微的影響。此外，其中一些損失與 AIG 不再提供的向小企業提供的清理費用福利有關。

Turning to PYD. We conducted our annual review of approximately 75% of pre-ADC loss reserves in the third quarter. We applied conservative assumptions in this review as we believe it is appropriate to be prudent given current economic conditions. As a result of our review, we've recorded $72 million of net favorable development for the third quarter or 90 basis points of the loss ratio. This reflects $42 million of amortization from the ADC combined with $30 million of other favorable development.

轉向 PYD。我們在第三季度對大約 75% 的 ADC 前損失準備金進行了年度審查。我們在本次審查中採用了保守的假設，因為我們認為在當前的經濟狀況下保持謹慎是適當的。作為我們審查的結果，我們記錄了第三季度 7200 萬美元的淨有利發展或損失率 90 個基點。這反映了 ADC 的 4200 萬美元攤銷以及 3000 萬美元的其他有利發展。

Our international operations were favorable in every region totaling $328 million, whereas North America was unfavorable by $256 million. Furthermore, in North America, virtually every line of business was favorable, except for U.S. financial lines, which was unfavorable by $660 million net of the ADC, predominantly in accident years 2018 and 2019 and, to a lesser extent, 2020.

我們的國際業務在每個地區都有利，總計 3.28 億美元，而北美則不利 2.56 億美元。此外，在北美，幾乎所有業務線都是有利的，但美國金融業務線除外，該業務線在扣除 ADC 後淨額為 6.6 億美元不利，主要發生在 2018 年和 2019 年的事故年度以及較小程度上的 2020 年。

Let me unpack the drivers of unfavorable development in U.S. financial lines a bit more because it's been an area of focus for us for several years given AIG's history in this line of business. The unfavorable development was primarily driven by excess D&O written out of both the U.S. and our Bermuda business. And while there was some movement on the primary side, the excess book was the most significant driver. D&O prior year emergence continues to be driven by large losses. Many from security class actions and earlier accident years also experienced stacking exposures where primary mid-excess and high-excess policies were all exposed on the same insured.

讓我進一步剖析美國金融領域不利發展的驅動因素，因為鑑於 AIG 在這一業務領域的歷史，多年來它一直是我們關注的領域。不利的發展主要是由於從美國和我們的百慕大業務中註銷的過多 D&O 造成的。雖然主要方面有一些變化，但超額書籍是最重要的驅動因素。 D&O 前一年的出現繼續受到巨大損失的推動。許多來自安全集體訴訟和早期事故年份的人也經歷了疊加風險，其中主要的中超額和高超額保單都暴露在同一個被保險人身上。

This issue is similar to what we saw across the portfolio when we first started our remediation strategy. The company had too much vertical limit on a per account basis. As we've discussed on prior calls, our underwriting strategy and ventilation standards were completely overhauled over the last few years, including U.S. financial lines to prevent stacking and overexposure to anyone insured. And we've dramatically reduced limits deployed on individual policies, obtained tighter terms and conditions and achieved higher attachment points on primary limits. Shane will provide more detail on PYD in his remarks.

這個問題類似於我們第一次開始實施補救策略時在整個產品組合中看到的問題。公司對每個賬戶的垂直限制太多。正如我們在之前的電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們的承保策略和通風標准在過去幾年中進行了全面改革，包括美國金融線，以防止對任何被保險人的疊加和過度暴露。我們還大大減少了部署在單個政策上的限制，獲得了更嚴格的條款和條件，並在主要限制上實現了更高的附加點。 Shane 將在他的發言中提供更多關於 PYD 的細節。

Now I'd like to spend a few minutes talking about Hurricane Ian, which was a very tragic event on a human level that also left devastating physical damage. AIG rapidly deployed significant resources to the affected areas, providing immediate support and infrastructure to help individuals, businesses and communities rebuild. Hurricane Ian is projected to be the second largest insured natural CAT loss in U.S. history.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間談談颶風伊恩，這是人類層面上非常悲慘的事件，也造成了毀滅性的身體傷害。 AIG 迅速向受災地區部署了大量資源，提供即時支持和基礎設施，以幫助個人、企業和社區重建。颶風伊恩預計將成為美國歷史上第二大受保自然巨災損失。

There remain a considerable number of variables contributing to industry ultimate losses, but based on what we know today, total insurable losses are expected to be in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion. For context, Hurricane Katrina and Irma, the first and third largest U.S. natural CAT losses in the last 100 years are estimated at $85 billion and $40 billion of insured losses, respectively, on an inflation-adjusted basis.

仍然有相當多的變量導致行業最終損失，但根據我們今天所知，可保損失總額預計在 500 億美元至 600 億美元之間。就背景而言，卡特里娜颶風和厄瑪颶風是過去 100 年美國第一大和第三大自然巨災損失，經通脹調整後，估計保險損失分別為 850 億美元和 400 億美元。

While Hurricane Ian will have an impact on the broader insurance, reinsurance and retro markets, we believe AIG is well positioned. Very importantly, we have strong and strategic relationships with our major reinsurers, and we are confident in our ability to obtain similar levels of capacity for 2023 as we did in 2022. In addition, we've improved and continued to improve our portfolio, and therefore, the reinsurance we require will reflect this during 2023. And we see significant growth opportunities across the market especially in the near term and for property specifically, and our significant financial flexibility will allow us to be nimble as we deployed capital at attractive risk-adjusted returns to Retail Property, wholesale property, Talbot, global specialties and AIG Re.

雖然颶風伊恩將對更廣泛的保險、再保險和復古市場產生影響，但我們相信 AIG 處於有利地位。非常重要的是，我們與主要再保險公司建立了牢固的戰略關係，我們有信心在 2023 年獲得與 2022 年類似水平的承保能力。此外，我們已經改進並繼續改進我們的投資組合，並且因此，我們需要的再保險將在 2023 年反映這一點。我們看到整個市場的重大增長機會，尤其是在短期內，特別是對於房地產而言，我們顯著的財務靈活性將使我們能夠在以有吸引力的風險部署資本時保持敏捷-零售物業、批發物業、Talbot、全球專業和 AIG Re 的調整後回報。

With respect to the industry and markets more broadly, as we noted on our second quarter call, there are a few things you need to believe about the market prior to Ian in order to understand the impact Ian may have in the future. If you believe, as we do, that the retro market was already contracting from last year's available capacity, which itself was reduced from the prior year and the anticipated capital for 2023 was already going to further contract approximately 10%, the retro market and the property CAT market would have already been challenged even prior to Ian.

關於更廣泛的行業和市場，正如我們在第二季度電話會議上指出的那樣，您需要在 Ian 之前相信一些關於市場的事情，以便了解 Ian 對未來可能產生的影響。如果您像我們一樣相信，復古市場已經從去年的可用容量開始收縮，而去年的可用容量本身就比上一年有所減少，並且 2023 年的預期資本已經進一步收縮約 10%，那麼復古市場和財產 CAT 市場甚至在 Ian 之前就已經受到挑戰。

In addition to reduced capacity over 2022, prior to Ian, there was also an expectation of increased retentions, more specific apparel coverage as well as rate increases resulting from several factors including increased frequency and severity of CATs over the last several years. Keeping this context in mind, 2022 will be another year with over $100 billion in natural CAT industry losses. Prior to 2017, on an inflation-adjusted basis, there were only 2 years, 2005 and 2011, that had greater than $100 billion of global natural CAT losses. And in both of these years, losses were led by primary apparels.

除了 2022 年容量減少外，在 Ian 之前，還預計保留率會增加，服裝覆蓋範圍更具體，以及由於過去幾年 CAT 的頻率和嚴重程度增加等多種因素導致的費率增加。牢記這一背景，2022 年將是 CAT 行業自然損失超過 1000 億美元的又一年。在 2017 年之前，在通脹調整的基礎上，只有 2 年，即 2005 年和 2011 年，全球自然巨災損失超過 1000 億美元。在這兩年中，主要服裝都是虧損的。

Since 2017, 5 of the last 6 years have had greater than $100 billion in global natural CAT losses, with the predominant portion of losses in the aggregate coming from secondary apparels. Furthermore, other issues potentially impacting 1/1 capacity prior to Ian were the strengthening of the dollar, euro-denominated capacity likely decreasing due to currency devaluation, asset valuations, inflation and demand surge from the post pandemic economy, just to name a few.

自 2017 年以來，過去 6 年中有 5 年的全球自然 CAT 損失超過 1000 億美元，其中大部分損失來自二手服裝。此外，在 Ian 之前可能影響 1/1 容量的其他問題包括美元走強、由於貨幣貶值、資產估值、通貨膨脹和大流行後經濟的需求激增等原因，以歐元計價的容量可能會減少，僅舉幾例。

When considering the impact of Ian and the complexity it adds to already challenging market conditions, there are a few additional factors to consider. In Florida, residential total insured values have increased by more than 50% over the last 10 years. The significance of commercial losses, which will likely exceed 40% of the ultimate losses for Ian compared to the average of prior natural catastrophes, where commercial losses were 30% of the ultimate loss. The prevalence of commercial losses exacerbates the complexity of CAT modeling generally and the resulting deficiencies regarding appropriate CAT load and pricing.

在考慮 Ian 的影響及其給本已充滿挑戰的市場條件增加的複雜性時，還有一些其他因素需要考慮。在佛羅里達州，住宅總保險價值在過去 10 年中增長了 50% 以上。商業損失的重要性，與以往自然災害的平均水平相比，Ian 可能會超過最終損失的 40%，其中商業損失佔最終損失的 30%。商業損失的普遍存在加劇了 CAT 建模的複雜性，並由此導致適當的 CAT 負載和定價方面的缺陷。

When considering the modeled estimated output for losses related to Ian, for example, commercial losses were deficient by 2.5x and Personal by 1.5x after adjusting for inflation and other factors. Furthermore, when major CATs occur in Florida, a disproportionate amount of the loss finds its way to the reinsurance market because of the proportional and low attaching excess to loss placements completed by Florida domestic insurers as their capital structures require significant reinsurance. Available reinsurance capacity is forecasted to be the lowest aggregate limit available in over a decade, making conditions in the property CAT reinsurance market even more challenging.

例如，在考慮與 Ian 相關的損失的模型估計輸出時，在針對通貨膨脹和其他因素進行調整後，商業損失不足 2.5 倍，個人損失不足 1.5 倍。此外，當主要的 CAT 發生在佛羅里達州時，不成比例的損失會進入再保險市場，因為佛羅里達州國內保險公司完成的損失配售比例和低附加超額，因為他們的資本結構需要大量再保險。可用的再保險能力預計將是十多年來可用的最低總限額，這使得財產 CAT 再保險市場的條件更具挑戰性。

Now turning to life retirement. Adjusted pretax income was $589 million, decreasing from $877 million in the prior year period, mainly due to lower alternative investment income and lower call and tender income. There were no significant reserve adjustments arising out of the third quarter actuarial assumption review. As I mentioned earlier, Life and Retirement had excellent sales with premiums and deposits of approximately $9 billion, up 23% on year-over-year. Sales of annuities over the course of 2022 have benefited from our relationship with Blackstone with $5 billion of assets originated year-to-date in private ABS, direct credit lending and structured assets.

現在轉向終身退休。調整後的稅前收入為 5.89 億美元，低於上年同期的 8.77 億美元，這主要是由於另類投資收入以及電話和投標收入的減少。第三季度精算假設審查未產生重大準備金調整。正如我之前提到的，人壽和退休業務的銷售額非常出色，保費和存款約為 90 億美元，同比增長 23%。 2022 年年金的銷售受益於我們與 Blackstone 的關係，今年迄今在私人 ABS、直接信貸貸款和結構化資產方面產生了 50 億美元的資產。

While our strategic partnership with Blackstone is still in the early days, the quality and the performance of the portfolio relative to what the business could have done on its own are very encouraging. Sequential improvement in fixed income and loan portfolio yields accelerated, with a 24 basis point improvement in base investment yields. Year-over-year fixed income and loan portfolio yields also improved 8 basis points, confirming the business has surpassed year-over-year yield compression for the first time in recent memory. Shane will provide more information on the Life Retirement segment and Corebridge in his remarks.

雖然我們與 Blackstone 的戰略合作夥伴關係仍處於早期階段，但相對於企業自身本可以完成的工作，其產品組合的質量和績效非常令人鼓舞。固定收益和貸款組合收益率的連續改善加速，基礎投資收益率提高了 24 個基點。固定收益和貸款組合收益率同比也提高了 8 個基點，證實該業務在近期記憶中首次超過了同比收益率壓縮。 Shane 將在他的發言中提供有關終身退休部門和 Corebridge 的更多信息。

Shifting to capital management. We continue to be balanced and disciplined as we maintain appropriate levels of capital in our subsidiaries for profitable growth opportunities across our global portfolio as well as reduced levels of debt while returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Looking ahead, with respect to share buybacks, we have $4.3 billion remaining on our current share repurchase authorization and expect to end 2022 with over $5 billion of share repurchases for the full year. And balance sheet actions we've taken put us in a position of strength with significant financial flexibility that AIG has not had in many years.

轉向資本管理。我們繼續保持平衡和自律，因為我們在我們的子公司中保持適當的資本水平，以獲得我們全球投資組合的盈利增長機會，並降低債務水平，同時通過股票回購和股息向股東返還資本。展望未來，在股票回購方面，我們目前的股票回購授權剩餘 43 億美元，預計到 2022 年底全年回購超過 50 億美元的股票。我們採取的資產負債表措施使我們處於優勢地位，具有 AIG 多年來從未有過的顯著財務靈活性。

As we look to 2023, our lockup agreement with the underwriters of the IPO with respect to Corebridge common stock expires in March. Subject to ordinary course blackout periods, this means that our likely windows for a secondary offering of Corebridge common stock in the first half of 2023 will be in mid- to late March as well as mid-May to late June. Our current expectation is that the net proceeds will largely be deployed to share repurchases.

展望 2023 年，我們與 IPO 承銷商就 Corebridge 普通股達成的禁售協議將於 3 月到期。受制於普通課程停電期，這意味著我們可能在 2023 年上半年二次發行 Corebridge 普通股的窗口將在 3 月中下旬以及 5 月中下旬至 6 月下旬。我們目前的預期是，淨收益將主要用於股票回購。

While we remain committed to consistently returning capital through share repurchases for the foreseeable future, we believe there will be attractive organic growth opportunities in general insurance and AIG Re given current market dislocations that may prove compelling. Lastly, as we discussed on our second quarter call, we continue to expect that post deconsolidation of Corebridge, AIG will achieve a return on common equity at or above 10%. Shane will provide more details in his remarks.

雖然我們仍然致力於在可預見的未來通過股票回購來持續回報資本，但我們相信，鑑於當前可能證明具有吸引力的市場錯位，普通保險和 AIG Re 將存在有吸引力的有機增長機會。最後，正如我們在第二季度電話會議上討論的那樣，我們繼續預計 Corebridge 拆分後，AIG 的普通股回報率將達到或超過 10%。 Shane 將在他的發言中提供更多細節。

As we approach year-end and plan for 2023, our path forward is clear with General Insurance solidifying its position as a global market leader, the deconsolidation and eventual full separation of Corebridge firmly underway and a significantly strengthened balance sheet. With that, Shane, I'll turn the call over to you.

隨著我們接近年底併計劃 2023 年，我們的前進道路很明確，General Insurance 鞏固了其作為全球市場領導者的地位，Corebridge 的拆分和最終完全分離穩步進行，資產負債表顯著增強。有了這個，Shane，我會把電話轉給你。

Thank you, Peter. As Peter noted, I will provide more detail on the third quarter results, specifically EPS, reserve reviews, net investment income, capital management and the path to achieving an above 10% return on common equity. Adjusted after-tax income was $509 million or $0.66 per share compared to $837 million or $0.97 per share in the prior year quarter. This was driven by a $741 million decline in net investment income, offset by improved underwriting results in General Insurance and solid performance in Life and Retirement as well as improved GOE and other operations.

謝謝你，彼得。正如彼得指出的那樣，我將提供有關第三季度業績的更多細節，特別是每股收益、準備金審查、淨投資收益、資本管理以及實現普通股回報率超過 10% 的途徑。調整後的稅後收入為 5.09 億美元或每股 0.66 美元，而去年同期為 8.37 億美元或每股 0.97 美元。這是由於淨投資收入下降 7.41 億美元，但被一般保險承保業績的改善、人壽和退休保險的穩健表現以及 GOE 和其他業務的改善所抵消。

General Insurance finished the third quarter with adjusted pretax income of $750 million. Underwriting income was up $148 million despite Hurricane Ian, offset by a $209 million decline in net investment income due to alternative investment returns. Life and Retirement contributed adjusted pretax income of $589 million, which is $288 million below prior year quarter driven by lower alternative investment and call and tender income.

General Insurance 第三季度調整後稅前收入為 7.5 億美元。儘管發生了颶風伊恩，但承保收入增加了 1.48 億美元，被另類投資回報導致的淨投資收入下降 2.09 億美元所抵消。人壽和退休業務貢獻了 5.89 億美元的調整後稅前收入，比上年同期低 2.88 億美元，原因是另類投資以及電話和投標收入較低。

Other operations adjusted pretax loss of $614 million compared to $562 million prior year quarter, mostly due to lower alternative investment income, partially offset by lower interest expense. This quarter, Other Operations included $16 million of additional expenses for setting up Corebridge as a stand-alone company. Excluding such expenses, GOE improved by $17 million versus prior year.

其他業務調整後的稅前虧損為 6.14 億美元，而去年同期為 5.62 億美元，這主要是由於另類投資收入減少，部分被利息支出減少所抵消。本季度，其他業務包括 1600 萬美元的額外費用，用於將 Corebridge 設置為獨立公司。排除此類費用，GOE 比上一年增加了 1700 萬美元。

As Peter noted, results in General Insurance reflects strong underwriting performance with continued combined ratio improvement of 240 basis points to 97.3%, an accident year combined ratio, ex CAT of 210 basis points to 88.4%. North America Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, improved 590 basis points over the prior year quarter to 84.6%. International Commercial accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, at 80.4% showed 640 basis points of improvement.

正如彼得指出的那樣，一般保險的業績反映出強勁的承保業績，綜合比率持續提高 240 個基點至 97.3%，事故年綜合比率（不包括 CAT）為 210 個基點至 88.4%。北美商業事故年度綜合比率（不包括 CAT）比去年同期提高 590 個基點，達到 84.6%。國際商業事故年度綜合比率（不包括 CAT）為 80.4%，改善了 640 個基點。

North America Personal reported an accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, of 112.8%, primarily reflecting higher reinsurance costs and lower ceding commission for high net worth business. International Personal accident year combined ratio, ex CAT, was 99.9%, mainly due to increased frequency of A&H claims in Japan and Taiwan.

North America Personal 報告的事故年綜合比率（不包括 CAT）為 112.8%，主要反映了較高的再保險成本和較低的高淨值業務分保佣金。國際人身事故年度綜合比率（不包括 CAT）為 99.9%，主要是由於日本和台灣的 A&H 索賠頻率增加。

Net CAT losses, excluding reinstatement premiums, were $600 million or 9.8 loss ratio points in the third quarter, which included $450 million from Hurricane Ian and $84 million from Japanese typhoons. Additionally, the reinstatement premium impact across all CAT events was $55 million.

不包括恢復保費的 CAT 淨損失在第三季度為 6 億美元或 9.8 個損失比率點，其中包括颶風伊恩造成的 4.5 億美元和日本颱風造成的 8400 萬美元。此外，所有 CAT 事件的恢復保費影響為 5500 萬美元。

Switching to reserves. Nearly $40 billion of reserves were reviewed this quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to approximately 90% of carried pre-ADC reserves. As Peter noted, prior year development, excluding related premium adjustments, was $72 million favorable this quarter compared to favorable development of $50 million in the prior year quarter.

切換到儲備。本季度審查了近 400 億美元的儲備，使年初至今的儲備總額達到 ADC 前已持有儲備的約 90%。正如 Peter 所指出的，不包括相關的保費調整，本季度前一年的發展為 7200 萬美元，而去年同期為 5000 萬美元。

Prior year emergence in accident year 2019 and 2020 was largely due to policies written in 2017 and 2018. And an accident year 2020 was largely due to policies in private and not-for-profit where gross premiums have been reduced by 54% since 2018, and limits provided have been reduced by 85%. In 2018 and prior, AIG wrote multiyear policies that contributed to accident year 2019 and 2020 losses. So for example, a policy written in 2017 had loss emergence in accident year 2020. We have strategically shifted away from this business, which now makes up less than 1% of policies in those lines.

2019 年和 2020 年事故年的前一年出現主要是由於 2017 年和 2018 年制定的政策。2020 年事故年主要是由於私人和非營利組織的政策，自 2018 年以來，毛保費下降了 54%，提供的限額減少了 85%。在 2018 年及之前，AIG 制定的多年保單導致了 2019 年和 2020 年的事故損失。因此，例如，2017 年制定的保單在 2020 年事故年出現了損失。我們已經從戰略上轉移了這項業務，目前該業務在這些領域的保單中所佔比例不到 1%。

As we've discussed previously, we overhauled the General Insurance underwriting strategy, including U.S. financial lines, resulting in reduced limits deployed on individual policies, tighter terms and conditions on higher attachment points on primary limits and termination of certain businesses.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們全面改革了一般保險的承保策略，包括美國的金融業務，從而減少了對個別保單的限制，對主要限制和終止某些業務的更高附加點的更嚴格的條款和條件。

Since 2018, we have seen the following: total primary limits exposed in U.S. financial lines have been reduced by $32 billion on a comparative basis or nearly 80% through the third quarter of this year; total primary limits in both corporate and national D&O have been reduced by nearly 50% on a comparative basis; and private and not-for-profit primary limits have been reduced by nearly 85%.

自 2018 年以來，我們看到了以下情況：截至今年第三季度，美國金融領域的主要限額總額已減少 320 億美元，即減少近 80%；相比之下，公司和國家 D&O 的總初級限額減少了近 50%；私人和非營利的主要限額降低了近 85%。

And in all cases, rates have increased substantially over this time period. Since 2018, we have achieved cumulative rate increases of nearly 85% in both primary corporate and national D&O on a third quarter cumulative basis and over 115% in private and not-for-profit primary business.

在所有情況下，在此期間利率都大幅上升。自 2018 年以來，在第三季度累計基礎上，我們在主要公司和國家 D&O 中實現了近 85% 的累計增長率，在私營和非營利性主要業務中實現了超過 115% 的增長率。

Overall, we recognize bad news early but wait to recognize good news over time as we monitor developments, which we believe leads to a conservative view on our reserves. Along these lines, we've built in an expectation of higher inflation given the uncertainty over its potential impact on our reserves.

總體而言，我們及早發現壞消息，但隨著時間的推移，我們會在監控事態發展時等待確認好消息，我們認為這會導致我們對儲備持保守看法。按照這些思路，鑑於通貨膨脹對我們儲備的潛在影響存在不確定性，我們已經建立了更高通貨膨脹的預期。

Turning to Life and Retirement. Adjusted pretax income was $589 million compared to $877 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was due to lower alternative investment, call and tender and fee income, partially offset by higher investment income from fixed maturity and loan portfolios, less adverse mortality and an improved outcome in the annual actuarial assumption review, which other than DAC acceleration of $57 million, showed no meaningful net movement in reserves this year.

轉向生活和退休。調整後的稅前收入為 5.89 億美元，而去年同期為 8.77 億美元。減少的原因是另類投資、電話和投標以及費用收入減少，部分被固定期限和貸款組合的投資收入增加、不利死亡率降低以及年度精算假設審查結果改善所抵消，DAC 加速 57 美元萬美元，今年的儲備沒有明顯的淨變動。

Product margins were attractive and in excess of long-term targets in all businesses, supported by robust new business origination from Blackstone. Corebridge now expects spread compression to convert to expansion beginning in 2023. Strong sales momentum continued in Individual Retirement, with $3.8 billion in sales, a 16% increase year-over-year and led by over 100% growth in fixed annuity sales on a record $1.7 billion in index annuity sales.

在來自 Blackstone 的強大新業務支持下，產品利潤率很有吸引力，並且超過了所有業務的長期目標。 Corebridge 現在預計利差壓縮將從 2023 年開始轉變為擴張。個人退休業務繼續保持強勁的銷售勢頭，銷售額為 38 億美元，同比增長 16%，其中固定年金銷售額增長超過 100%，創歷史新高指數年金銷售額 17 億美元。

Group Retirement deposits grew 11%, driven by higher large plant acquisitions in the third quarter. The Life business had solid sales with an improving mix of business in the U.S. and continued underlying growth in the U.K. In Institutional Markets, premiums and deposits of $1.9 billion were up from $1 billion in the prior year quarter, with larger GIC issuances on higher pension risk transfer transactions. Mortality, including COVID losses, was once again below original pricing expectations. COVID losses remain within original sensitivities of $65 million to $75 million for each 100,000 U.S. population deaths.

受第三季度大型工廠收購增加的推動，集團退休存款增長了 11%。壽險業務銷售額穩健，美國業務組合有所改善，英國業務持續增長。在機構市場，保費和存款從去年同期的 10 億美元增加到 19 億美元，GIC 發行量增加，養老金增加風險轉移交易。包括 COVID 損失在內的死亡率再次低於最初的定價預期。 COVID 損失保持在每 10 萬美國人口死亡 6500 萬至 7500 萬美元的原始敏感性範圍內。

Adjusted pretax net investment income for the third quarter was $2.54 billion, a decline of $741 million or 23% compared to prior year quarter, with $431 million attributable to Life and Retirement. $665 million of the decline was due to alternative investment income and $150 million was due to reduced call and tender income, offset by increase in the fixed maturity and loan portfolios of $153 million from yield uplift.

第三季度調整後的稅前淨投資收益為 25.4 億美元，較上年同期減少 7.41 億美元或 23%，其中 4.31 億美元來自壽險和退休險。 6.65 億美元的下降是由於另類投資收入，1.5 億美元是由於電話和投標收入減少，被固定期限和貸款組合因收益率提高而增加 1.53 億美元所抵消。

Our fixed maturity and loan portfolio saw a lift in yield of 17 basis points in the third quarter, building on top of the 9 basis points from the second quarter, and we expect 10 to 15 basis points additional in the fourth quarter. The new money yield on our fixed maturity and loan portfolio was approximately 120 basis points above the assets rolling off during the third quarter, roughly 60 basis points higher in General Insurance and 130 basis points higher in Life and Retirement.

我們的固定期限和貸款投資組合的收益率在第二季度上升 9 個基點的基礎上在第三季度上升了 17 個基點，我們預計第四季度還會上升 10 到 15 個基點。我們的固定期限和貸款組合的新貨幣收益率比第三季度滾動資產高約 120 個基點，一般保險高約 60 個基點，人壽和退休保險高 130 個基點。

Now turning to the balance sheet and capital management. We began 2022 with $10.7 billion of parent liquidity. And since then, we have paid dividends totaling $768 million, repurchased approximately $4.4 billion or 77 million shares of common stock, bringing our ending count to 747 million shares, a 9% reduction year-to-date.

現在轉向資產負債表和資本管理。 2022 年初，我們的母公司流動資金為 107 億美元。從那以後，我們已經支付了總計 7.68 億美元的股息，回購了大約 44 億美元或 7700 萬股普通股，使我們的期末數量達到 7.47 億股，今年迄今減少了 9%。

Including recently announced bond make-whole calls of $1.8 billion, we established a Corebridge debt structure of $9.4 billion and reduced $9.8 billion of AIG debt. We completed the Corebridge IPO with its parent liquidity of $1.7 billion. AIG received $1.6 billion of net proceeds from the IPO, and we exited the third quarter with $6.5 billion of AIG parent liquidity, including $1.8 billion to fund the make-whole calls.

包括最近宣布的 18 億美元債券贖回要求在內，我們建立了 94 億美元的 Corebridge 債務結構，並減少了 98 億美元的 AIG 債務。我們以 17 億美元的母公司流動資金完成了 Corebridge 的首次公開募股。 AIG 從首次公開募股中獲得 16 億美元的淨收益，我們在第三季度結束時擁有 65 億美元的 AIG 母公司流動資金，其中包括 18 億美元用於為整體電話融資提供資金。

At third quarter end, our GAAP leverage was 36.5%, a 540 basis point increase quarter-over-quarter. The decrease in AOCI added 320 basis points to the overall leverage ratio, with over 80% of the change relating to Life and Retirement. AIG's debt leverage ratio, excluding AOCI, was 27.5%, up 220 basis points from the second quarter as a result of the issuance of Corebridge debt as planned prior to the IPO. Including the impact of the make-whole calls post quarter end, AIG's leverage is 34.7% or 26%, excluding AOCI. Total adjusted return on common equity was 3.7%, down from 6.5% in 3Q '21. The decrease is mostly caused by a decline in net investment income.

第三季度末，我們的 GAAP 槓桿率為 36.5%，環比增長 540 個基點。 AOCI 的下降使整體槓桿率增加了 320 個基點，其中超過 80% 的變化與人壽和退休有關。 AIG 的債務槓桿比率（不包括 AOCI）為 27.5%，較第二季度上升 220 個基點，這是由於 Corebridge 債券在 IPO 前按計劃發行。包括季度結束後整體電話的影響，AIG 的槓桿率為 34.7% 或 26%，不包括 AOCI。調整後的普通股總回報率為 3.7%，低於 21 年第三季度的 6.5%。減少主要是由於淨投資收益下降所致。

Moving to the risk-based capital ratio, our primary operating subsidiaries remain profitable and well capitalized, with General Insurance's U.S. pool fleet and Life and Retirement's U.S. fleet RBC ratios both above our target ranges. We continue to make progress on the 4 priorities to achieve a 10% or greater return on capital employed. They are: underwriting profitability; leaner operating model; separation of the Life and Retirement business and capital management; 2 points of improvement in combined ratio; or $500 million of expense savings; or $5 billion in share repurchases approximate to 1 point improvement in ROCE.

轉向基於風險的資本比率，我們的主要運營子公司保持盈利且資本充足，General Insurance 的美國聯營車隊和 Life and Retirement 的美國車隊 RBC 比率均高於我們的目標範圍。我們繼續在 4 個優先事項上取得進展，以實現 10% 或更高的已動用資本回報率。它們是：承保盈利能力；更精簡的運營模式；人壽和退休業務與資本管理的分離；綜合成本率提升2分；或節省 5 億美元的費用；或 50 億美元的股票回購相當於 ROCE 提高 1 個百分點。

We expect to achieve expense savings from multiple areas, including: the remaining $350 million of savings yet to be realized from AIG 200; roughly $300 million of corporate GOE and approximately $400 million of interest expense that will be transferred to Corebridge; an additional expense savings as we transition AIG to a leaner operating model. Additionally, we've seen a 26 basis point yield uplift in the fixed maturity and loan portfolios in the past 2 quarters. Over time, we expect the yield uplift from net investment income could add 1 to 2 points to ROCE.

我們期望從多個方面實現費用節省，包括： AIG 200 尚未實現的剩餘 3.5 億美元的節省；大約 3 億美元的公司 GOE 和大約 4 億美元的利息費用將轉移到 Corebridge；隨著我們將 AIG 轉變為更精簡的運營模式，我們節省了額外的費用。此外，我們在過去兩個季度看到固定期限和貸款投資組合的收益率提高了 26 個基點。隨著時間的推移，我們預計淨投資收益帶來的收益率提升可能會使 ROCE 增加 1 到 2 個百分點。

We are confident about delivering on our 10% plus ROCE commitment, and we will continue to execute on a prudent capital management strategy, which will reduce the share count to 600 million to 650 million range while maintaining leverage at the 20% to 25% level post deconsolidation.

我們有信心實現 10% 以上的 ROCE 承諾，我們將繼續執行審慎的資本管理策略，將股份數量減少至 6 億至 6.5 億股，同時將槓桿率保持在 20% 至 25% 的水平分拆後。

With that, I will turn the call back over to you, Peter.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給你，彼得。

Thank you, Shane. And operator, we're ready for questions.

謝謝你，謝恩。接線員，我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. (Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。 （操作員說明）

Operator, maybe we'll go to the next one in the queue, and then we'll come back to Elyse.

接線員，也許我們會轉到隊列中的下一個，然後我們會回到 Elyse。

Sure. So our next question comes from John Heagney from Dowling & Partners. (Operator Instructions)

當然。所以我們的下一個問題來自 Dowling & Partners 的 John Heagney。 （操作員說明）

Do you want to try the next one in the queue, operator, please?

接線員，你想試試隊列中的下一個嗎？

Sure. Let's try J. Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

當然。讓我們試試 Piper Sandler 的 J. Paul Newsome。

Sorry about the confusion from the folks on the questions, hopefully, you can hear me. I actually wanted to ask you about sort of a little bit different broad M&A question about the turmoil in the market. I think, obviously, we've seen environments where there's quite a bit of change. And I don't know if you think or you're seeing maybe the sellers getting a little bit more willing to sell given the volatility of the environment, and just your general thoughts on M&A would be fantastic.

對於人們對問題的困惑，我深表歉意，希望您能聽到我的聲音。我實際上想問你關於市場動蕩的一些有點不同的廣泛併購問題。我認為，很明顯，我們已經看到環境發生了相當大的變化。而且我不知道你是否認為或者你是否看到鑑於環境的波動，賣家可能會更願意出售，而你對併購的一般想法會很棒。

Yes. So let me first take a step back. Thank you for the question and talk a little bit about our capital management strategy. And as we've outlined in the past, that we're focused on putting additional capital in the subsidiaries for organic growth because we see great opportunities. We worked very hard on reducing leverage, so while we've leveraged up Corebridge, we've been redeeming debt at the AIG level, focused on returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases, and we'll look very hard at the dividend for 2023.

是的。所以讓我先退後一步。感謝您提出問題並談談我們的資本管理策略。正如我們過去概述的那樣，我們專注於向子公司投入更多資金以實現有機增長，因為我們看到了巨大的機會。我們非常努力地降低杠桿率，因此在我們提高 Corebridge 槓桿率的同時，我們一直在 AIG 層面贖回債務，專注於通過股票回購向股東返還資本，我們將非常關注 2023 年的股息.

And our view on M&A is, where there are compelling opportunities, I think you have seen weakness in this quarter in terms of some of the reporting. But our strategy is much more where it's compelling, where it's strategic. And I think if we use Glatfelter as an example, Glatfelter was a best-in-class program underwriter that had great distribution. We were not performing well in our Programs business. So we were able to reduce our position in programs and bring Glatfelter and Tony Campisi and the leadership team to AIG, and they just have thrived here together, where we've improved combined ratios, we've grown, and we've improved our overall performance.

我們對併購的看法是，在有誘人機會的地方，我認為你在本季度的一些報告中看到了疲軟。但我們的戰略更引人注目，更具有戰略意義。而且我認為，如果我們以 Glatfelter 為例，Glatfelter 是一流的計劃承銷商，具有很好的分銷能力。我們的程序業務表現不佳。因此，我們能夠減少我們在計劃中的職位，並將 Glatfelter 和 Tony Campisi 以及領導團隊帶到 AIG，他們在這裡一起茁壯成長，我們提高了綜合比率，我們已經成長，我們已經改善了我們的整體表現。

So I think we will look for ways. We don't really have portfolios that need to be rehabilitated like we would have the Programs 3 years ago, but we could find those bolt-ons and things that are additive to AIG, where we are both better from being together. So I think that's how we would think about acquisition in the sort of medium term.

所以我想我們會想辦法。我們並沒有像 3 年前的項目那樣真正需要恢復的投資組合，但我們可以找到那些附加到 AIG 的東西，我們在一起會更好。所以我認為這就是我們在中期考慮收購的方式。

Fantastic. Shift to a different question, maybe some thoughts on Validus in the context -- in the reinsurance business, in the context of the broader steps that you folks have done to reduce CAT exposure and maybe a little bit about the trade-off. I mean -- because, obviously, the big achievements that you've done under AIG has reduced the CAT exposure immensely. And how do you think about sort of, as we go forward, the trade-off that there seems to be a lot of opportunities [coming] from the CAT, kind of exposed areas but especially in the reinsurance market? But obviously, you've managed that trade-off pretty aggressively...

極好的。轉向另一個問題，也許是在再保險業務中對 Validus 的一些想法，在你們為減少 CAT 敞口而採取的更廣泛步驟的背景下，也許還有一些關於權衡的問題。我的意思是 - 因為，很明顯，你在 AIG 下取得的巨大成就極大地減少了 CAT 風險。在我們前進的過程中，你如何看待某種權衡，即 CAT 似乎有很多機會 [coming]，暴露領域，尤其是在再保險市場？但顯然，您已經非常積極地進行了權衡……

Yes. So I think the market that's in front of us is going to reward those who are disciplined leading up to it. We have been very thoughtful and careful about reducing aggregate where we felt we had too much in peak zones as well as too much exposed to natural catastrophes. So we've talked over time that we've reduced enormous limits over the period that we've been reunderwriting.

是的。所以我認為擺在我們面前的市場將獎勵那些在市場上遵守紀律的人。我們一直非常周到和謹慎地減少我們認為我們在高峰區有太多以及太多暴露於自然災害的聚集。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在討論我們在重新承保期間減少了巨大的限制。

Now on the AIG reassumed side, that's been just disciplined. We didn't like the risk-adjusted returns as we've cited in my prepared remarks, that we took down the aggregate by 60%. And I think the premiums, if you look on a gross basis in terms of CAT year-over-year, we're going to be down like 40%. And actually, some of that would be greater in North America.

現在，在 AIG 恢復的方面，這只是受到了紀律處分。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們不喜歡風險調整後的回報，我們將總回報率降低了 60%。而且我認為保費，如果你從 CAT 同比的總額來看，我們將下降 40%。實際上，其中一些在北美會更大。

We will look at opportunities in terms of -- we have plenty of aggregate for CAT, but it'll all be what's the best risk-adjusted opportunities. I mean the good news is we have multiple entry points. So we have Lexington on an E&S basis. We have retail property capabilities across the world. We have a terrific syndicate in Talbot that can access specialty classes that are more first party. We have a tremendous global specialties business that did phenomenal, I think, in the quarter and showed their sort of global leadership. And then we have the assumed business for AIG Re, where there are opportunities to deploy capital there, we are going to be prepared.

我們將根據以下方面來看待機會——我們有大量的 CAT 匯總，但這都是最好的風險調整機會。我的意思是好消息是我們有多個入口點。所以我們在 E&S 的基礎上有列剋星敦。我們在全球擁有零售物業業務。我們在 Talbot 有一個很棒的聯合組織，可以訪問更多第一方的專業課程。我們有一個巨大的全球專業業務，我認為，在本季度表現出色，並展示了他們的全球領導地位。然後我們為 AIG Re 假設了業務，在那裡有機會在那裡部署資本，我們將做好準備。

So I think that the market will be very good for us to deploy more property. But again, we'll be disciplined, and we'll see what really transpires over the next 60 to 90 days. Next question, please.

所以我認為市場將非常有利於我們配置更多的財產。但同樣，我們將受到紀律處分，我們將在接下來的 60 到 90 天內看到真正發生的事情。請下一個問題。

Yes. And our next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW.

是的。我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Great. Am I coming through?

偉大的。我來了嗎？

Yes, Meyer. Good to talk to you.

是的，邁耶。很高興和你交談。

Fantastic. Okay. And Peter, just hoping you could talk a little bit about casualty loss trends because you mentioned property as one of the reasons for raising the overall trend 6.5%. And we obviously saw the financial lines issues that, at least superficially, could lead into other casualty lines. Can you sort of close the loop on that?

極好的。好的。彼得，只是希望你能談談傷亡損失趨勢，因為你提到財產是將總體趨勢提高 6.5% 的原因之一。我們顯然看到了財務問題，至少從表面上看，這些問題可能會導致其他傷亡問題。你能結束這個循環嗎？

Sure. I'll ask Mark to provide more detail. I think what we do in our prepared remarks is say that we're looking at property, casualty, all of our lines and business in great detail. Really, what's been driving the upper end of the ranges up has been more the first-party business because of all the economic factors that are driving them. But Mark spends enormous time with the staff and the underwriting claims, looking at all the casualty trends as well.

當然。我會要求 Mark 提供更多詳細信息。我認為我們在準備好的發言中所做的是說我們正在非常詳細地研究財產、傷亡、我們所有的業務和業務。確實，由於推動它們的所有經濟因素，推動範圍高端的更多是第一方業務。但馬克花了大量時間與員工和核保理賠人員打交道，同時還研究了所有傷亡趨勢。

Mark, do you want to provide more detail, please?

馬克，你想提供更多細節嗎？

Sure. Peter, thank you. So yes, on the follow-up on that, Meyer, would be -- let's put it this way, the excess casualty loss cost trends are double digits. And the primary trends aren't too much lower than that, but they're single digits but on the upper end. So we think we've captured it in a pretty good fashion. But the incremental move from quarter-to-quarter, as Peter denoted, is marginally -- increases on the liability side, but it's mostly due to the much more apparent trends on the property loss cost side, which on a weighted average basis, drives it up.

當然。彼得，謝謝你。所以是的，邁耶的後續行動是——讓我們這樣說吧，超額傷亡損失成本趨勢是兩位數。主要趨勢並沒有比這低太多，但它們是個位數，但在上端。所以我們認為我們已經以非常好的方式捕捉到了它。但正如彼得所指出的那樣，季度與季度之間的增量變化在負債方面略有增加，但這主要是由於財產損失成本方面的趨勢更為明顯，在加權平均基礎上，推動它了。

Okay. That's very helpful. The second question, I guess, in recent quarters, we've been hearing about increasing competition in, I guess, in excess public D&O, which seems a little bizarre. Are you seeing any other individual product lines where there's incremental softness?

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我想，在最近幾個季度，我們一直聽說在過度的公共 D&O 方面競爭日益激烈，這似乎有點奇怪。您是否看到任何其他單獨的產品線具有漸進的柔軟性？

Thanks, Meyer. Dave, why don't you talk a little bit about what we're seeing in D&O. We really are not seeing it in other lines to the extent that what's going on in D&O, but we've been very disciplined, and Dave could provide a little bit more context.

謝謝，邁耶。戴夫，你為什麼不談談我們在 D&O 中看到的東西。我們確實沒有在其他方面看到 D&O 中發生的事情的程度，但我們一直非常自律，Dave 可以提供更多背景信息。

Thank you, Peter, and Meyer. Yes. The rates have rolled back after 4 years of cumulative increases north of 100% in public D&O. It's -- I'm not sure the logic path of that, okay? At the same time, we also have to discern different markets sitting inside what would be the public D&O. So primary versus first excess versus high excess versus Side A and classes and market cap differentiation, all those things have to be factored in.

謝謝彼得和邁耶。是的。在公共 D&O 的 4 年累計增幅超過 100% 之後，費率已經回落。這是——我不確定它的邏輯路徑，好嗎？同時，我們還必須辨別位於公共 D&O 內部的不同市場。因此，主要與第一過剩、高過剩與 A 面以及類別和市值差異化，所有這些因素都必須考慮在內。

I think certainly, in our book, which has a weighting to primary, there's less pricing pressure in the primary. There's respect for the company that leads the tower, claims reputation, multinational and underwrite a reputation with distribution and clients. So that's a different piece, Meyer, that I'd say.

我認為當然，在我們的書中，主要有權重，主要的定價壓力較小。領導塔樓、享有聲譽、跨國公司並在分銷商和客戶中享有聲譽的公司受到尊重。所以這是一個不同的部分，Meyer，我會說。

Excess has been and will be a commodity product in many lines of business. D&O is showing up now. It often shows up in excess casualty and may show up in excess property. But right now, it's showing up in D&O. And once again, the risk matters, the account matters, the commoditization, it might be there, okay? It's -- I look at that as something maybe antithetical to the verticality in loss that's existing in the business and one that needs to be managed and managed by each individual company. And you will have that sort of a different portfolio that others may chase that down. And I would say that responsible markets will probably have a renewal retention that's lower in the excess capacity. And that will be showing up in future quarters.

過剩已經並將成為許多業務領域的商品。 D&O 現在出現了。它經常出現在超額傷亡中，也可能出現在超額財產中。但現在，它出現在 D&O 中。再一次，風險很重要，賬戶很重要，商品化可能存在，好嗎？這是 - 我認為這可能與業務中存在的垂直損失以及需要由每個公司管理和管理的垂直性背道而馳。而且您將擁有其他人可能會追逐的那種不同的投資組合。而且我會說負責任的市場可能會在過剩產能中有較低的續訂保留率。這將在未來幾個季度出現。

It does not make sense. I'll be very frank. The verticality of loss is real right now, whether in securities class actions or derivative cases. So it's just supply-demand competition. I think for our portfolio, we're confident because of the control that we have and the weighting that we have between primary and Side A that's tied to primary and the financial strength of AIG that we will be there for the long duration claim.

它沒有任何意義。我會很坦率。損失的垂直性現在是真實的，無論是在證券集體訴訟還是衍生案件中。所以這只是供需競爭。我認為對於我們的投資組合，我們有信心，因為我們擁有的控制權以及我們在主要和 A 面之間的權重與主要和 AIG 的財務實力相關，我們將在那里長期索賠。

So with that, I'll turn it back.

因此，我會把它轉回去。

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

Can you guys hear me?

你們能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, Elyse. Yes. Sorry about the glitch.

是的，愛麗絲。是的。抱歉出現故障。

No worries. So my first question, I know the timing of the deconsolidation depends upon secondary offerings of Corebridge. But when you do ultimately deconsolidate, do you envision at that point that General Insurance as a stand-alone entity will be running at a 10% ROE?

不用擔心。所以我的第一個問題是，我知道拆分的時間取決於 Corebridge 的二次發行。但是，當您最終分拆時，您是否設想 General Insurance 作為一個獨立實體將以 10% 的 ROE 運行？

Yes, we do. I mean, again, like we've said, the timing of deconsolidation is subject to market conditions and the volatility in the market. But if you take that away and look at a normal course as to we get through 2023, when we deconsolidate, we expect we'll be, with all the variables that Shane outlined in the 10% ROE, we will be at that 10% ROE.

是的，我們有。我的意思是，就像我們說過的那樣，拆分的時間取決於市場條件和市場波動性。但是，如果你把它拿走，看看我們到 2023 年的正常過程，當我們去整合時，我們預計我們會，根據 Shane 在 10% ROE 中概述的所有變量，我們將達到 10%魚子。

And then my second question is on the financial line adverse development. I know you guys mentioned part of it, right, is the multiyear covers that AIG used to write, but was there an impact on your current accident year picks as a pull forward of the charge? And if there wasn't, is it just because of the changes that you made in the business over the years?

然後我的第二個問題是關於金融線的不利發展。我知道你們提到了其中的一部分，對吧，是 AIG 曾經寫過的多年期封面，但是作為對指控的推動，對你目前的事故年份選擇有影響嗎？如果沒有，是否僅僅是因為多年來您在業務中所做的更改？

Mark, would you take that one, please?

馬克，請你拿那個好嗎？

Sure, Peter. Elyse, good to hear from you. So yes, that's a good question, Elyse, and it's actually the right question. So I guess think of it like this, Shane mentioned that we did $40 billion of reserves this quarter, that makes it 90% year-to-date, only 10% remaining. And the review was -- all our reviews have been comprehensive. But I would say particularly so this quarter, with improved actuarial methodologies but really augmented with a rigorous review of individual cases with the claims department, specifically focusing on downside risk that was more qualitatively, also incorporating -- I guess a couple of things.

當然，彼得。愛麗絲，很高興收到你的來信。所以，是的，這是一個很好的問題，Elyse，這實際上是正確的問題。所以我想是這樣想的，Shane 提到我們本季度做了 400 億美元的準備金，這是今年迄今為止的 90%，只剩下 10%。審查是——我們所有的審查都是全面的。但我會特別說這個季度，改進了精算方法，但實際上增加了與索賠部門對個案的嚴格審查，特別是側重於更定性的下行風險，也包括——我猜有幾件事。

First, it would be that because of that concentration of real detail, the financial reserve position is strong, firstly. Secondly, as you mentioned the multiyear policies, yes, that's an impact and probably a larger impact than you might think, which kind of preceded Dave and the team. And that excess D&O and private not-for-profit are the major drivers as Peter and Shane highlighted. But I really do not see that as a follow forward into more recent accident years.

首先，由於真實細節的集中，首先，金融儲備頭寸很強。其次，正如您提到的多年期政策，是的，這是一種影響，而且可能比您想像的影響更大，這種影響先於戴夫和團隊。正如 Peter 和 Shane 強調的那樣，過度的 D&O 和私人非營利組織是主要驅動力。但我真的不認為這是對最近事故年份的跟進。

And -- but let me just give you a few fact points on that. So Dave talked about it a bit indirectly, but I think more directly, from my point of view on risk selection, which is what it's really all about at the end of the day, back in 2017, 42% of our insurance -- or given that there was a class action -- security class action lawsuit, we had 42% of them on a primary insured basis, whereas now, it's 12%. So that's a clear risk selection difference.

而且 - 但讓我就此給你幾個事實要點。所以 Dave 有點間接地談到了它，但我認為更直接，從我對風險選擇的角度來看，這才是最終的真正意義所在，回到 2017 年，我們 42% 的保險——或者考慮到有集體訴訟——安全集體訴訟，我們有 42% 是在主要被保險人的基礎上，而現在是 12%。所以這是一個明顯的風險選擇差異。

But from the severity point of view of how much capacity gets placed on those from -- it's an 80% reduction on capacity provided to those given that they had a security class action suit. So both elements of that, I think, are incredibly strong and point to the capacity deployment post those years, so more recently as well as the risk selection, which is the core to everything.

但從嚴重性的角度來看，這些人的容量減少了 80%，因為他們有安全集體訴訟。因此，我認為這兩個要素都非常強大，並指向那些年之後的容量部署，以及最近的風險選擇，這是一切的核心。

But a couple of other quick things. I know you like stats, Elyse. So why do I think it -- especially on the [levels] that we say are more susceptible -- cause. So on primary not-for-profit, for example, when we look back at prior policy years, now it's close to accident years, which is the real driver of underwriting decisions and improvements, the loss ratio for policy year '21 at 18 months of development is 80% lower than the prior year. And on excess P&L, which is longer tail, you have a similar 80% reduction in the loss ratio. So all of these facts point to a much stronger book of business and increased confidence that what's the most recent accident years are -- is valid. So we're not seeing any change to those loss ratios.

但是還有其他一些快速的事情。我知道你喜歡統計數據，愛麗絲。那麼為什麼我認為它 - 特別是在我們所說的更容易受到影響的 [水平] 上 - 原因。因此，在主要的非營利組織中，例如，當我們回顧之前的保單年度時，現在接近事故年，這是承保決策和改進的真正驅動力，保單年度 '21 的損失率為 18 個月發展比上年下降80%。在長尾的超額損益上，損失率也有類似的 80% 降低。因此，所有這些事實都指向了更強大的業務簿，並增強了人們對最近事故年份的信心——是有效的。所以我們沒有看到這些損失率有任何變化。

Great. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Elyse. Next question, operator.

偉大的。謝謝，馬克。謝謝，愛麗絲。下一個問題，接線員。

Our next question will come from Brian Meredith from UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, Brian. Thank you. Nice to talk to you.

是的，布萊恩。謝謝你。很高興和你聊天。

Great. Awesome. Yes. Peter, I'm just curious, there's been a lot of debate about how the kind of rehardening here of the property market kind of affected the casualty markets. Just curious, your thoughts there and specifically casualty re and then on the primary side as well.

偉大的。驚人的。是的。彼得，我只是好奇，關於房地產市場的重新硬化如何影響傷亡市場，存在很多爭論。只是好奇，你在那裡的想法，特別是傷亡，然後也是主要方面。

Thanks, Brian. Again, we will see as we get to 1/1 in terms of what the pricing environment will be. It will be led by property. I mean I talked about it in my prepared remarks, in the capacity issues and how reinsurers decide to deploy their capital is going to be very disciplined.

謝謝，布萊恩。同樣，我們將看到定價環境達到 1/1。它將由財產主導。我的意思是，我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，在容量問題中以及再保險公司決定如何部署他們的資本將非常有紀律。

I do think on the primary side of casualty, there will be some impacts. We look at just the normal economic potential headwinds, but also just deploying capital. So it's not going to be a single -- just we're going to get rate on property and not pay attention to casualty. You're going to look at it in a holistic way.

我確實認為在傷亡的主要方面，會有一些影響。我們只關注正常的經濟潛在逆風，但也只是部署資本。所以它不會是單一的——我們只是要獲得財產費率而不是關注傷亡。您將以整體方式看待它。

I think Dave and I have spent a lot of time on this, and we strongly believe that excess and surplus lines in casualty will grow more than admitted. On a same-store sale basis, meaning that the opportunities that exist today will find, I think, more growth in E&S and the specialty classes. And I think that the rate will reflect what the exposures are, and we would see the casualty lines being affected as well. But again, we'll see when we get into 2023.

我認為戴夫和我在這方面花了很多時間，我們堅信傷亡的過剩和盈餘線的增長將超過承認的增長。在同店銷售的基礎上，這意味著今天存在的機會將在 E&S 和專業課程中找到更多增長。而且我認為該比率將反映出風險是什麼，我們也會看到傷亡線也會受到影響。但同樣，我們會在進入 2023 年時看到。

Great. And then my second question, I'm just curious, looking at your North American commercial written premium growth, given the rate and exposure that you guys are experiencing right now, I would have thought that you see close to double-digit growth in that line -- in that area, not just 7%. Is there anything unusual happening there?

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題，我很好奇，看看你們的北美商業承保保費增長，考慮到你們現在所經歷的比率和風險，我本以為你們會看到接近兩位數的增長線——在那個區域，不僅僅是 7%。那裡有什麼不尋常的事情發生嗎？

No. Dave, why don't you add on in terms of what really happened in financial lines with M&A and IPO? But no, Brian, we saw very good growth. We outlined it in my prepared remarks, Lexington property, Glatfelter, Primary Casualty. So we saw real growth across North America and felt it was strong. Had a little bit of a headwind from financial lines just based on M&A and IPO. But Dave, maybe you can just cover that a little bit.

不，戴夫，你為什麼不補充一下併購和首次公開募股在金融領域真正發生的事情呢？但不，布賴恩，我們看到了非常好的增長。我們在我準備好的評論中概述了它，Lexington property，Glatfelter，Primary Casualty。因此，我們看到了整個北美地區的真正增長，並且感到強勁。僅基於併購和首次公開募股的金融業務就遇到了一些不利因素。但是戴夫，也許你可以稍微介紹一下。

Yes, Brian, I think when you unpack it and you really look at each of the key businesses, whether it's property or casualty or even our programs group and Glatfelter, there was strong growth. The vagaries of financial lines show up here, okay? It's always -- it's tied to the stock market. It's historically tied to the stock market. A lot of new business growth is tied to the stock market and particularly last year where you might have had a number of SPACs and IPOs, and they are nonrecurring in 2022.

是的，布賴恩，我認為當你打開它並真正審視每一個關鍵業務時，無論是財產還是傷亡，甚至是我們的項目組和 Glatfelter，都有強勁的增長。變幻莫測的財務線出現在這裡，好嗎？它總是——它與股市有關。它在歷史上與股票市場聯繫在一起。許多新業務的增長都與股票市場有關，尤其是去年，你可能有許多 SPAC 和 IPO，而它們在 2022 年是非經常性的。

So -- and then there's a runoff business that's also tied to the stock market. So what we saw, it's really a financial lines, and I would call it a financial lines disciplined underwriting. We weren't chasing anything into this quarter and therefore, the growth was down. We're confident around the book. But it's -- that's actually where you would say the underlying growth of a significant part of our portfolio wasn't showing up in 3Q for the right reasons, okay? The stock market is a dictate of what happens in the opportunities in financial lines.

所以 - 然後還有一個與股票市場相關的徑流業務。所以我們看到的是，這真的是一條金融線，我稱之為金融線紀律承保。本季度我們沒有追逐任何東西，因此增長下降了。我們對這本書充滿信心。但它 - 這實際上是你會說我們投資組合的很大一部分的潛在增長沒有出現在第三季度的正確原因，好嗎？股票市場決定了金融領域的機會會發生什麼。

Thank you, Brian. I think we have time for one more question.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And our final question will come from Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題將來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had for you is on the capital deployment commentary. Getting down to 600 to 650 share count, I just wanted to see if you could unpack sort of underlying assumptions that may be included in that. And maybe help us think through when we think about the excess capital you have today, potential Corebridge secondary proceeds. How would you think about debt reduction versus share repurchases and how that sort of triangulates to the 600 million to 650 million, if you could?

我為您準備的第一個是關於資本部署的評論。減少到 600 到 650 股，我只是想看看你是否可以解開其中可能包含的一些基本假設。當我們考慮您今天擁有的過剩資本，潛在的 Corebridge 二次收益時，也許可以幫助我們思考。如果可以的話，你會如何考慮債務減少與股票回購以及這種三角關係如何得出 6 億至 6.5 億？

Yes. Thanks, Alex. We've talked about our capital management strategy over the past several quarters and focused on capital for growth, debt reduction, share repurchases. And as I said, going into 2023, we're going to focus on the dividend.

是的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。在過去的幾個季度裡，我們討論了我們的資本管理戰略，重點關注用於增長、債務減少和股票回購的資本。正如我所說，進入 2023 年，我們將專注於紅利。

The primary use of capital will be used for share repurchases and, again, like Corebridge, I think has done very well in a very challenging IPO market. We expect the value to continue to move in a very positive direction based on how strong the business is. And so I'm not going to get into like the PE today versus the PE of AIG, but think that the best use of capital over the foreseeable future is going to be to reduce share count to get us to the 600 million to 650 million range.

資本的主要用途將用於股票回購，而且，與 Corebridge 一樣，我認為在極具挑戰性的 IPO 市場中表現非常出色。我們預計價值將根據業務的強大程度繼續朝著非常積極的方向發展。因此，我不會討論今天的 PE 與 AIG 的 PE，但認為在可預見的未來，資本的最佳用途將是減少股份數量，使我們達到 6 億至 6.5 億股範圍。

Now if I could spend 2 seconds on outlining what we've done since we've announced Blackstone in July of 2021, so you go back into early third quarter of last year and we set up Corebridge's financial structure, not only do we do the IPO of 12.4% but set up their structure of $9.4 billion of debt, $1.7 billion of parent liquidity. During that period, we've reduced ongoing debt at AIG by approximately $12 billion, including the $1.8 billion make-whole in October. We paid common and preferred dividends of $1.3 billion during that period of time. We've also repurchased over 100 million of common shares, which is over $6 billion, and we put around $2 billion of capital in our subsidiaries for growth.

現在，如果我能花 2 秒鐘概述自 2021 年 7 月宣布 Blackstone 以來我們所做的事情，那麼你回到去年第三季度初，我們建立了 Corebridge 的財務結構，我們不僅做IPO 為 12.4%，但建立了 94 億美元的債務結構，17 億美元的母公司流動性。在此期間，我們將 AIG 的持續債務減少了大約 120 億美元，其中包括 10 月份的 18 億美元的整體債務。在此期間，我們支付了 13 億美元的普通股和優先股股息。我們還回購了超過 1 億股普通股，價值超過 60 億美元，並且我們將約 20 億美元的資本投入我們的子公司以實現增長。

So that's a lot of capital deployment. All of it is set up to strengthen the balance sheet, strengthen AIG's strategic positioning as well as making sure that we can continue to put the capital in the subsidiaries to drive organic growth. So we're really pleased where we are, and we think that the path forward with the secondary offerings will put us even in a stronger position.

所以這是大量的資本部署。所有這些都是為了加強資產負債表、加強 AIG 的戰略定位以及確保我們能夠繼續將資本投入子公司以推動有機增長。所以我們真的很高興我們所處的位置，我們認為二級產品的前進道路將使我們處於更有利的地位。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe as a follow-up question, just on reinsurance costs, is there anything you can tell us about your spend on your natural CAT reinsurance program as it stands today? And I appreciate that you probably don't want to provide too much and tip your hand one way or the other in terms of the way you'll work through negotiations on that next year. But any way to help us think through the current cost? And anything we should consider when thinking about the materiality of that headed into a harder reinsurance market?

知道了。這很有幫助。也許作為一個後續問題，關於再保險成本，你能告訴我們你今天在自然 CAT 再保險計劃上的支出嗎？我很欣賞你可能不想提供太多，也不想就明年的談判工作方式提出任何建議。但是有什麼方法可以幫助我們考慮當前的成本嗎？在考慮進入更艱難的再保險市場的重要性時，我們應該考慮什麼？

Yes. I mean the first thing I would say is AIG is not an index of the market rhetoric. We are very different in terms of how we purchase reinsurance just based on the size and scale, geographic diversity, different products. And so like when reinsurers deploy capital -- and that's why I say we have very strategic relationships because there's enormous continuity on our programs year-over-year even when we change structures. So I think that we've gotten commitments from all of our major reinsurers to be able to deploy the same amount of capital to the extent we need it for our property CAT. That's number one.

是的。我的意思是，我要說的第一件事是 AIG 不是市場言論的指標。我們在購買再保險的方式上有很大不同，只是基於規模和規模、地域多樣性和不同的產品。就像再保險公司部署資本一樣——這就是為什麼我說我們有非常戰略性的關係，因為即使我們改變結構，我們的項目每年都有巨大的連續性。所以我認為我們已經得到所有主要再保險公司的承諾，能夠在我們的財產 CAT 需要的範圍內部署相同數量的資本。這是第一。

Number two is that the portfolio has changed. I mean when you are continuing to reduce gross exposures, you don't always need the same structures. And so I think we changed the structure in '22, which was to buy sort of global occurrence that sits above our per occurrence layers across the world and reduce the aggregate limit. And so we're looking at structures right now.

第二是投資組合發生了變化。我的意思是，當你繼續減少總風險敞口時，你並不總是需要相同的結構。因此，我認為我們在 22 年改變了結構，即購買位於我們在世界各地的每個事件層之上的全球事件，並降低總限額。所以我們現在正在研究結構。

I mean I think you're going to get -- no matter who you speak to, the truth will be it's going to be a very late renewal season. Retro needs to be put together. Nobody is quoting now, there's not going to be any firm order terms for quite some time. And I think that we're just going to have to work through the market.

我的意思是我認為你會明白——不管你和誰說話，事實都是這將是一個非常晚的續約賽季。復古是需要搭配的。現在沒有人報價，在相當長的一段時間內不會有任何確定的訂單條款。而且我認為我們只需要通過市場來工作。

But I just don't think that AIG is going to be in a detrimental position just based on our portfolio structure, partnership and actually our performance. And I think the reinsurers would say, you have to ask them, but what they tell me is that we've exceeded expectations on all the variables in terms of the commitments we've made in terms of the underwriting, and that's on property and casualty. So I think we'll be very well positioned and we'll provide updates as we get further along into the renewal season.

但我只是認為，根據我們的投資組合結構、合作夥伴關係以及我們的實際表現，AIG 不會處於不利地位。而且我認為再保險公司會說，你必須問他們，但他們告訴我的是，就我們在承保方面所做的承諾而言，我們已經超出了所有變量的預期，那就是財產和傷亡。所以我認為我們將處於非常有利的位置，並且隨著我們進一步進入續訂季節，我們將提供更新。

Okay. Yes, I want to thank everybody today for your time, and I hope everybody has a great day. Thank you.

好的。是的，今天我要感謝大家的時間，我希望每個人都有美好的一天。謝謝你。

And once again, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。