Adecoagro SA (AGRO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's third-quarter 2024 results conference call.

早安，女士們先生們，感謝您的等待。此時，我們歡迎大家參加 Adecoagro 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol & Energy VP; and Mrs. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

今天與我們在一起的有首席執行官馬裡亞諾·博世 (Mariano Bosch) 先生； Emilio Gnecco 先生，財務長； Renato Junqueira Pereira 先生，糖、乙醇和能源副總裁；以及投資者關係官維多利亞·卡貝洛 (Victoria Cabello) 女士。我們謹通知您，該事件正在被記錄。（操作員說明）

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，我要指出的是，前瞻性陳述是基於 Adecoagro 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前掌握的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或不發生的情況。投資人應了解，總體經濟狀況、產業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Adecoagro 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性聲明中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

現在我將會議交給執行長馬裡亞諾·博世先生。博世先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2024 third-quarter results conference. We have already committed $96 million to shareholder distribution. This includes $35 million in cash dividends on top of the $61 million that we have already invested in share repurchases year-to-date.

早安，感謝您參加 Adecoagro 2024 年第三季業績會議。我們已經承諾向股東分配 9,600 萬美元。除了我們今年迄今已投資於股票回購的 6,100 萬美元之外，這還包括 3,500 萬美元的現金股利。

As we distribute cash to shareholders, we also continue investing in attractive growth projects, such as growing the size of our sugarcane plantation in Brazil and strengthening our Rice operations. Moreover, during the quarter, we repurchased $84 million of our global notes, thus reinforcing our balance sheet structure.

在向股東分配現金的同時，我們也繼續投資於有吸引力的成長項目，例如擴大巴西甘蔗種植園的規模和加強我們的稻米業務。此外，本季我們回購了 8,400 萬美元的全球票據，從而強化了我們的資產負債表結構。

Moving on to the results. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the quarter reached $111 million whereas year-to-date amounted to $341 million. Starting with our Rice operations, all the investments done through the years, such as the acquisitions of the assets in Uruguay, seed genetics, machinery, all these have materialized into record results. We have become a relevant player within the sector, with a quick speed of reaction to respond to market opportunities.

繼續看結果。本季綜合調整後 EBITDA 達 1.11 億美元，而年初至今為 3.41 億美元。從我們的稻米業務開始，多年來所做的所有投資，例如收購烏拉圭的資產、種子遺傳、機械，所有這些都取得了創紀錄的成果。我們已成為該行業的重要參與者，能夠快速反應以應對市場機會。

In Dairy, our continuous focus on enhancing efficiencies across the whole value chain, together with the development of higher value-added products, are the main drivers towards the growth in results.

在乳製品領域，我們持續專注於提高整個價值鏈的效率，以及開發更高附加價值的產品，是績效成長的主要動力。

Now we are in the middle of the planting activities for our 2024, 2025 campaign, which are being conducted with good soil moisture conditions and at a good pace for both Crops and Rice businesses. We have our teams fully focused on this, and we are in an excellent situation to maximize yields in all our productions for the next harvest season.

現在，我們正處於 2024 年、2025 年種植活動的中期，土壤濕度條件良好，農作物和水稻業務進展順利。我們的團隊完全專注於這一點，並且我們處於極好的狀態，可以最大限度地提高下一個收穫季節所有產品的產量。

Now let's move into our Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business. Despite the challenging weather conditions, our crushing volume remains ahead versus the previous year. And more relevant, we accomplished a 55% sugar mix during the quarter, thanks to our industrial efficiencies. We continue to expect a slight year-over-year increase in crushing and, consequently, a new record in sugar production. Furthermore, we were able to secure new areas at attractive terms and even plant cane during the optimal window, thus enhancing its productivity potential for next harvest seasons.

現在讓我們進入糖、乙醇和能源業務。儘管天氣條件充滿挑戰，我們的破碎量仍比去年領先。更重要的是，由於我們的工業效率，我們在本季實現了 55% 的糖混合。我們繼續預計壓榨量將同比略有增長，導致食糖產量創下新紀錄。此外，我們能夠以有吸引力的條件獲得新的土地，甚至在最佳窗口期種植甘蔗，從而提高了下一個收穫季節的生產力潛力。

Before passing the word to Emilio, a quick update on the ESG. In line with our energy transition strategy, we secured an attractive financing from FINEP to construct two biodigesters that will enable us to increase our biomethane production 5 times by 2027. This, in turn, will enable us to cut down carbon emissions while reducing costs.

在向 Emilio 傳達訊息之前，先快速介紹一下 ESG 的最新情況。根據我們的能源轉型策略，我們從 FINEP 獲得了一筆有吸引力的融資，用於建造兩個生物消化器，這將使我們能夠在 2027 年之前將生物甲烷產量增加 5 倍。反過來，這將使我們能夠減少碳排放，同時降低成本。

To conclude, I would like to thank our teams. Despite these challenging events, we continue generating good returns and value for our shareholders, thanks to their hard work and dedication.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊。儘管發生了這些具有挑戰性的事件，但由於股東的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，我們繼續為股東創造良好的回報和價值。

Now I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the quarter.

現在我將讓艾米利奧向您介紹本季的數據。

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results.

謝謝你，馬裡亞諾。大家早安。讓我們從第 4 頁開始總結我們的合併財務表現。

Gross sales increased to $457 million during the third quarter while, on an accumulated basis, we were up to over $1.1 billion. This was mostly explained by higher volumes sold of most of our products, which, in turn, fully offset the lower prices for some of the commodities that we produce.

第三季總銷售額增至 4.57 億美元，而累計銷售額超過 11 億美元。這主要是因為我們大多數產品的銷售增加，這反過來又完全抵消了我們生產的一些商品的較低價格。

However, adjusted EBITDA reached $111 million during the quarter, making a 29% decline versus the prior year, mostly due to an uneven year-over-year comparison. During the third quarter of 2023, we completed a farm sale, which booked $30 million in adjusted EBITDA, whereas no farm sales were conducted during the current period. Excluding this, our quarterly performance was down by 12% versus the same period of last year, explained by lower results in our Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business.

然而，本季調整後 EBITDA 達到 1.11 億美元，比上年同期下降 29%，主要是由於年比不平衡所致。2023 年第三季度，我們完成了一次農場銷售，調整後 EBITDA 為 3000 萬美元，而本期沒有進行任何農場銷售。排除此因素，我們的季度業績較去年同期下降了 12%，原因是我們的糖、乙醇和能源業務業績較低。

On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EBITDA stood at $341 million. Despite an outperformance of our Rice and Dairy businesses, lower results were driven by the aforementioned decline in our Sugar, Ethanol & Energy operations.

今年迄今，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.41 億美元。儘管我們的米和乳製品業務表現出色，但上述糖、乙醇和能源業務的下滑導致業績下降。

Now please turn to slide 5. Regarding our production figures in the bottom right chart, we can see that crushing volumes in our Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business were up 6% versus the same period of last year. Higher crushing translates into higher volume and better dilution of fixed costs. In our Farming division, the increase in the production of grains was explained by a significant recovery in yields after having experienced better weather conditions throughout our latest harvest season.

現在請翻到投影片 5。關於右下圖的產量數據，我們可以看到糖、乙醇和能源業務的壓榨量比去年同期成長了 6%。更高的破碎率意味著更高的產量和更好的固定成本稀釋。在我們的農業部門，穀物產量的增加是由於我們在最近的收穫季節經歷了更好的天氣條件後產量的顯著恢復。

Let's move to slide 7 with the operational performance of our Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business. Crushing volumes during the quarter amounted to 4 million tons, making a 10% year-over-year decline. This is fully explained by the dry weather experienced during the first nine months of the year, which translated into a reduction in yields and, thus, into lower crushing. Nevertheless, this was partially offset by an increase in sourcing of third-party cane, thanks to opportunities that arose from nearby areas.

讓我們轉到投影片 7，了解糖、乙醇和能源業務的營運績效。本季壓榨量為 400 萬噸，較去年同期下降 10%。今年前九個月的乾燥天氣可以充分解釋這一點，這導致產量下降，從而導致壓榨量減少。然而，由於附近地區出現的機會，第三方甘蔗採購的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

On an accumulated basis, total crushing volume reached 10.2 million tons, 6% higher compared to the same period of last year due to greater sugarcane availability given our expansion planting activities and third-party cane.

由於我們擴大種植活動和第三方甘蔗，甘蔗供應量增加，累積壓榨量達到 1,020 萬噸，比去年同期增加 6%。

In terms of mix, we continue to maximize sugar production given its attractive premium over ethanol. Within our ethanol production, we are maximizing the production of hydrous ethanol as demand for this type of ethanol has been significantly increasing and gaining market share, offering the better margin. If required, we can always dehydrate our ethanol at any time.

在混合方面，鑑於糖的溢價相對於乙醇具有吸引力，我們將繼續最大限度地提高糖的產量。在我們的乙醇生產中，我們正在最大限度地提高含水乙醇的產量，因為對這種乙醇的需求已顯著增加並獲得了市場份額，從而提供了更好的利潤。如果需要，我們可以隨時對乙醇進行脫水。

Let's please turn to slide 8, where we describe sales conducted throughout the periods. Net sales amounted to $227 million during the quarter while, year-to-date, it reached $502 million. As you can see on the top left chart, the increase in volumes sold of sugar fully offset the decline in prices. As explained in prior releases, lower sugar prices have come down versus the levels seen during 2023 due to a stronger pace of milling in Brazil, which resulted in higher sugar supply.

讓我們翻到投影片 8，我們在其中描述了整個期間的銷售情況。該季度淨銷售額達 2.27 億美元，而年初至今達到 5.02 億美元。如左上圖所示，糖銷量的增加完全抵消了價格的下降。如同先前發布的報告所述，由於巴西製粉步伐加快，導致食糖供應增加，食糖價格較 2023 年水準下降。

The same trend can be seen for our ethanol sales conducted during the respective periods. We strategically sold our production to profit from spikes in price, even though selling prices in US dollar terms continue to be below the previous year on greater production. Consequently, we continue holding on to our ethanol inventories to profit from better prices in the upcoming quarters. Our stocks represent 49% of our year-to-date ethanol production.

我們在各個時期進行的乙醇銷售也可以看到同樣的趨勢。我們策略性地出售我們的產品，以從價格上漲中獲利，儘管由於產量增加，以美元計算的銷售價格繼續低於前一年。因此，我們繼續持有乙醇庫存，以便在未來幾季從更好的價格中獲利。我們的庫存佔今年迄今乙醇產量的 49%。

Moving on to energy. We focus on complying with our long-term energy contracts. However, lower prices and a weaker Brazilian real drove the decline in sales. Regarding carbon credits, we have already sold over 400,000 CBios at an average price of $15 per CBio, making a total of $6 million in net sales.

轉向能源。我們專注於遵守我們的長期能源合約。然而，較低的價格和疲軟的巴西雷亞爾導致銷售額下降。關於碳信用額，我們已經以每個 CBio 15 美元的平均價格出售了超過 40 萬個 CBio，淨銷售額總計 600 萬美元。

Please go to page 9, where we would like to present the financial performance of the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $100 million during the third quarter and $259 million on a year-to-date basis. Despite presenting an increase in net sales as well to a year-over-year gains in the mark-to-market of our commodity hedge position, results were offset by year-over-year losses in the mark-to-market of our biological assets on lower expected yields, coupled with lower sugar and ethanol prices.

請轉至第 9 頁，我們將在此介紹糖、乙醇和能源業務的財務表現。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1 億美元，年初至今為 2.59 億美元。儘管淨銷售額有所增加，且我們的商品對沖頭寸按市值計算的同比收益也有所增加，但結果被我們生物製品按市值計價的同比損失所抵消。和乙醇價格較低。

Finally, to conclude with the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business, please turn to slide 10, where we would like to briefly talk about the current outlook. Assuming normal weather for the rest of the year, we forecast a slight increase in our annual crushing figure versus 2023. Precipitations received throughout the month of October enhanced the recovery of the cane that will be harvested in the next quarters.

最後，作為糖、乙醇和能源業務的總結，請轉到投影片 10，我們想在其中簡要討論當前的前景。假設今年剩餘時間天氣正常，我們預計年度壓碎量將比 2023 年略有增加。十月份的降雨促進了下幾個季度收穫的甘蔗的恢復。

From a commercial point of view, sugar prices peaked by the end of the third quarter due to a decline in Brazil's cane productivity on the back of the aforementioned dry weather. Furthermore, fire events reported by the end of August in key producing states added pressure to the country's sugar production expectations. Consequently, we foresee a tighter global supply and demand scenario for the coming months, reason why we still have a portion of our expected 2024 sugar production still unhedged and our 2025 production remains open.

從商業角度來看，由於上述乾旱天氣導致巴西甘蔗產量下降，糖價在第三季末達到高峰。此外，8月底主要產區發生的火災事件對該國食糖產量預期增加了壓力。因此，我們預計未來幾個月全球供需情勢將趨緊，這也是我們預計 2024 年食糖產量的一部分仍未對沖且 2025 年產量仍保持開放的原因。

In the case of ethanol, demand continues strong given its attractive price versus gasoline, absorbing new supply and supporting the recovery in prices. We expect to sell our inventories over the following quarters as we believe ethanol prices have room to improve due to the current low parity at the pump, coupled with the beginning of the industry's interharvest season.

就乙醇而言，鑑於其價格相對於汽油具有吸引力，需求持續強勁，吸收了新的供應並支持價格的復甦。我們預計將在接下來的幾季出售我們的庫存，因為我們相信，由於目前的價格較低，加上產業收穫季節的開始，乙醇價格還有上漲的空間。

To finalize with the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business, we are using our stored bagasse to produce energy to sell in the spot market as prices recover due to low levels of water reservoirs.

為了完成糖、乙醇和能源業務，我們正在利用儲存的甘蔗渣來生產能源，以便在由於水庫水位較低而導致價格回升時在現貨市場上出售。

Now we would like to move on to the Farming business. Please go to slide 12. By the end of October, we concluded harvesting activities related to our 2023, 2024 harvest season and produced over 1.1 million tons of agricultural produce. As of today, we are undergoing planting activities for our 2024, 2025 campaign, with a weak to moderate La Niña weather forecast until the year-end. It is important to highlight that for a correct crop development, rainfalls must occur from January onwards as that is the moment when most of our crops define their yields. Furthermore, we were able to expand our winter crops area to over 45,000 hectares in this new season due to better soil moisture conditions.

現在我們想轉向農業業務。請轉到投影片 12。截至10月底，我們已完成2023年、2024年收穫季收穫活動，農產品產量超過110萬噸。截至今天，我們正在進行 2024 年和 2025 年種植活動，預計到年底拉尼娜天氣預報為弱至中度。重要的是要強調，為了正確的作物生長，降雨必須從一月開始，因為這是我們大多數作物確定產量的時刻。此外，由於土壤濕度條件較好，我們在新季節將冬季作物面積擴大到超過 45,000 公頃。

In the case of Rice, we were able to develop a new area in the Northeast region of Argentina. In Dairy, we continue enhancing efficiencies in our free stores, which are already at full capacity. At the industry level, we are working on product development for the domestic and export markets while expanding our presence across different price tiers with our consumer product brands.

以萊斯為例，我們能夠在阿根廷東北部地區開發一個新地區。在乳製品領域，我們繼續提高免費商店的效率，這些商店已經滿載運作。在產業層面，我們正在致力於國內和出口市場的產品開發，同時透過我們的消費品品牌擴大我們在不同價格層的影響力。

On the following page 13, we present the financial performance of our Farming business. Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business totaled $17 million during the quarter whereas, year-to-date, it amounted to $99 million.

在接下來的第 13 頁，我們介紹了農業業務的財務表現。本季農業業務調整後 EBITDA 總計 1,700 萬美元，而年初至今為 9,900 萬美元。

Starting with our Crops segment, adjusted EBITDA amounted to $2 million in the third quarter compared to a $29 million booked during the prior year as the latter fully reflects the sale of a farm conducted in September 2023. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EBITDA totaled $22 million, which includes the sale of La Pecuaria farm conducted in April 2024.

從我們的農作物部門開始，第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元，而上一年預訂的 EBITDA 為 2900 萬美元，因為後者完全反映了 2023 年 9 月進行的農場銷售。年初至今，調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 2,200 萬美元，其中包括 2024 年 4 月出售的 La Pecuaria 農場。

Focusing solely in our Crops results, the segment performed better than in 2023 as we saw a significant year-over-year recovery in production. However, results were negatively impacted by lower international prices for our main products as well as by higher costs in US dollar terms and lower-than-expected corn yields due to the impact of spiroplasma.

僅關注我們的農作物業績，該部門的表現好於 2023 年，因為我們看到產量同比大幅復甦。然而，我們的主要產品國際價格下跌、美元成本上升以及螺原體影響導致玉米產量低於預期，對業績產生了負面影響。

Moving on to Rice. Despite the increase in sales on better prices, lower adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was mainly explained by higher costs in US dollar terms. On an accumulated basis, adjusted EBITDA reached $51 million, marking a new record for this segment. Results were driven by year-over-year gains reported in the mark-to-market of our biological assets on higher prices and higher planting area.

繼續講賴斯。儘管價格上漲導致銷售增加，但本季調整後 EBITDA 較低的主要原因是以美元計算的成本較高。調整後 EBITDA 累計達到 5,100 萬美元，創下該細分市場的新紀錄。業績的推動因素是我們的生物資產按市值計算的價格上漲和種植面積增加所帶來的同比增長。

Lastly, adjusted EBITDA in our Dairy segment totaled $8 million during the period whereas, year-to-date, reached $26 million. Results were positively impacted by higher sales on higher prices as we improved the mix of higher value-added products and maximized the production of fluid milk for the domestic market.

最後，我們乳製品部門的調整後 EBITDA 在此期間總計 800 萬美元，而年初至今達到 2,600 萬美元。由於我們改善了高附加價值產品的結構並最大限度地提高了國內市場的液態乳產量，因此價格上漲帶來的銷售成長對業績產生了正面影響。

Let's now turn to page 15, where we would like to present our capital allocation strategy. According to our distribution policy, we must distribute a minimum of 40% of the cash generated during the previous year via a combination of cash dividends and share repurchase. As of today, we have already committed $96 million to shareholders' distribution, $26 million more than the minimum stated in our distribution policy.

現在讓我們翻到第 15 頁，我們將在其中介紹我們的資本配置策略。根據我們的分配政策，我們必須透過現金股利和股票回購相結合的方式分配至少上一年產生的現金的40%。截至今天，我們已承諾向股東分配 9,600 萬美元，比我們的分配政策中規定的最低限額多出 2,600 萬美元。

In terms of dividends, on November 27, we will make our second cash dividend payment of $17.5 million, which represents approximately $0.174 per share. The first installment was paid on May 29 in an equal cash amount, resulting in an annual cash dividend of $35 million.

在股息方面，我們將於 11 月 27 日支付第二次現金股息，金額為 1,750 萬美元，約每股 0.174 美元。第一期分期付款已於 5 月 29 日以等額現金支付，年度現金股利為 3,500 萬美元。

In addition, we have already repurchased over $61 million in shares under our buyback program, which represents approximately 5.7% of the company's equity. Going forward, we expect to continue with our share repurchase.

此外，我們已經根據回購計畫回購了超過 6,100 萬美元的股票，約占公司股本的 5.7%。展望未來，我們預計將繼續進行股票回購。

Please turn to slide 16 for a broader view of our debt position. Net debt amounted to $646 million, making a 9% decrease compared to the same period of last year. Throughout the year, we have been diligently reducing our gross debt and cash position in the most efficient manner while looking for opportunities to finance our operations at the lowest cost. As shown in our financial figures, this was achieved without disattending our distribution policy and growth projects.

請參閱投影片 16 以更全面地了解我們的債務狀況。淨債務達6.46億美元，較去年同期下降9%。全年，我們一直在努力以最有效的方式減少總債務和現金狀況，同時尋找機會以最低的成本為我們的營運融資。正如我們的財務數據所示，這是在不放棄我們的分配政策和成長項目的情況下實現的。

As of September 30, 2024, our liquidity ratio reached 2.6 times, showing the company's full capacity to repay short-term debt with its cash balances, whereas our net leverage ratio was 1.5 times, in line with the same period of last year.

截至2024年9月30日，我們的流動性比率達到2.6倍，顯示公司完全有能力用現金餘額償還短期債務，而淨槓桿率為1.5倍，與去年同期持平。

On the following slide, we describe our CapEx program. Expansion CapEx represented $26 million during the quarter and $72 million on an accumulated basis. In Brazil, we continue increasing our sugarcane plantation and investing in our biogas unit in Ivinhema mill, where our biomethane production takes place.

在下一張投影片中，我們描述了我們的資本支出計劃。本季的擴張資本支出為 2,600 萬美元，累計資本支出為 7,200 萬美元。在巴西，我們繼續增加甘蔗種植園，並投資於伊文希馬工廠的沼氣裝置，我們的生物甲烷生產就在那裡。

In our Farming business, investments include the acquisition of agricultural machinery such as seeders and harvesters as well as the development of croppable area for rice production and the construction of a new warehouse for our dairy products at our Chivilcoy dairy processing facility.

在我們的農業業務中，投資包括購買播種機和收割機等農業機械、開發水稻生產耕地以及在 Chivilcoy 乳製品加工廠建造新的乳製品倉庫。

Thank you very much for your time. We are now open to questions.

非常感謝您抽出時間。我們現在願意接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Bruno Tomazetto, Itau BBA.

（操作員說明）Bruno Tomazetto，Itau BBA。

I would like to discuss with you guys the parity of ethanol to gasoline prices. We see most of the industry now focused on the buildup of inventories to better capitalize on higher prices during the intercrop period. But at the same time, we also see higher-than-expected supply of ethanol related to sugar and ethanol operators in the Center-South region not being able to achieve sugar max production, right?

我想和大家討論乙醇與汽油的平價問題。我們看到大多數行業現在都專注於庫存積累，以更好地利用間作期間更高的價格。但同時，我們也看到與糖和中南地區乙醇業者無法實現糖最大生產相關的乙醇供應高於預期，對吧？

So our question is how to think about these two different dynamics impacting the parity to gasoline. And what's Adecoagro's most updated view on the timing intensity for this, not only for Q4 but also for early 2025?

因此，我們的問題是如何思考這兩種不同的動態對汽油平價的影響。Adecoagro 對此時間安排強度的最新看法是什麼，不僅是第四季度，而且是 2025 年初？

And also, if I may, a second one on the sugar prices. We understand that impacts on the sugar -- on the Brazilian sugar production is mostly limited to those regions impacted by fires, which is obviously not your case, but you could benefit from higher sugar prices if we see further impacts on the industry struggling to produce sugar in the next harvest as well, right?

如果可以的話，還有關於糖價的第二個問題。我們知道，對巴西食糖生產的影響主要限於受火災影響的地區，這顯然不是您的情況，但如果我們看到該行業受到進一步影響，您可能會從更高的糖價中受益。時也會有糖，對嗎？

So we would like to understand what Adecoagro is expecting in terms of potential impacts from these fires for sugar production in the upcoming year and also how much you guys think that's already pricing at current sugar prices? That's it.

因此，我們想了解 Adecoagro 對這些火災對來年食糖生產的潛在影響有何預期，以及你們認為按照當前食糖價格計算，這已經是多少？就是這樣。

Thank you, Bruno, for your question. Renato will take the answer. Renato?

謝謝布魯諾的提問。雷納托將接受答案。雷納托？

Yes. Thank you for your question, Bruno. So we start with the ethanol. We think that the demand of ethanol is still very high. Hydrous demand is close to 2 billion liters of ethanol per month. If you add the anhydrous demand, you reach 3 billion liters per month. The parity rate at the pump is still very low at 65%, favoring ethanol consumption. So if you take the stocks of ethanol and compare to the same period of last year, the stocks are very similar, with a much higher demand today. So the stock to use relation is much tighter now. And also, you have to consider that the intercrop period of this year is going to be longer due to the weather problems that the Center-South of Brazil is having.

是的。謝謝你的問題，布魯諾。所以我們從乙醇開始。我們認為乙醇的需求仍然很高。每月含水乙醇的需求量接近 20 億公升。如果加上無水需求，每月將達到 30 億公升。泵浦的平價率仍然很低，為 65%，有利於乙醇消費。因此，如果你將乙醇庫存與去年同期進行比較，你會發現庫存非常相似，今天的需求要高得多。所以現在庫存使用關係更加緊密。此外，你還必須考慮到，由於巴西中南部的天氣問題，今年的間作期將會更長。

So we expect that the price of ethanol is going to react -- actually, is already reacting. And we think that it should reach the 70% or surpass the 70% parity at some point during the last part of this year and first quarter of next year. We are holding our inventories to sell ethanol during this period, capturing higher prices.

因此，我們預計乙醇的價格將會做出反應——實際上，已經在做出反應了。我們認為，應該會在今年下半年和明年第一季的某個時候達到 70% 或超過 70% 的平價。在此期間，我們持有庫存以出售乙醇，以獲取更高的價格。

And regarding the second question of sugar and impact of the fire, we think that the fire is going to have an impact for next year as well. The fire occurred in August and September, most August and September. So the sugarcane that was already harvest at that point lost all that growth. So the sugarcane is going to be very delayed for next year. So we think that the first half of the year, the Brazilian mills in general, especially the regions that the fire occurred, they're going to very -- they're going to have a very low yields or much lower yields than usual.

關於糖和火災影響的第二個問題，我們認為火災也會對明年產生影響。火災發生在八、九月，以八、九月最多。因此，當時已經收穫的甘蔗失去了所有的生長。因此，明年的甘蔗上市將延後。因此，我們認為，今年上半年，整個巴西鋼廠，尤其是發生火災的地區，它們的產量將會非常低，或比平常低得多。

So we think that the market will be still dependent on Brazil in the first half of the year. And the market is going to be still -- is going to continue very tight. That's why we think that the future curve should be more flat, and we will take the opportunity to hedge the remaining part of our production.

因此我們認為上半年市場仍將依賴巴西。市場將保持平靜，並將繼續非常緊張。這就是為什麼我們認為未來曲線應該更加平坦，我們將藉此機會對沖我們剩餘部分的產量。

Isabella Simonato, Bank of America.

伊莎貝拉·西蒙納托，美國銀行。

So my question is about yields. First of all, in Argentina, right, you guys mentioned that the planting has started and the expectation, of course, is for a more relatively normal weather next season. So I wanted to understand if we can start thinking, right, that yields will improve year-over-year and also if you can elaborate a little bit on the mix of various. It's clear that you guys reduced the exposure to corn, right? And I would say this is related to the plague you guys faced this year. But just to give a little bit more context on the mix of crops would be helpful.

所以我的問題是關於收益率。首先在阿根廷，對吧，你們提到播種已經開始了，當然期望下個季節天氣會比較正常。因此，我想了解我們是否可以開始思考，收益率會逐年提高，以及您是否可以詳細說明各種因素的組合。很明顯你們減少了玉米的接觸，對吧？我想說這和你們今年遇到的瘟疫有關。但只要提供更多關於農作物組合的背景知識就會有所幫助。

Thank you, Isabella. I'm going to take your question. Regarding yields in general, last year was a challenging year, and we are starting this season with excellent conditions. So in general, we are starting at a much better conditions than what we started the previous season. So assuming weather going normal from now onwards, we can clearly expect better yields than what we have last year in general as a whole.

謝謝你，伊莎貝拉。我來回答你的問題。就整體產量而言，去年是充滿挑戰的一年，我們以良好的條件開始本季。所以總的來說，我們的開局條件比上個賽季開始時好得多。因此，假設從現在開始天氣正常，我們顯然可以預期產量會比去年整體更高。

Then getting into the details of our distribution within the crops, this year, we are increasing soybean comparing with corn. But even more relevant than that and thinking on how prices we expect they will be moving for the future, peanuts is the one we are growing more, and we are starting in even better leased land. So we expect better yields for next year. And peanuts is becoming a very relevant crop. And in the peanut side, as Europe is the main buyer of peanuts for Argentina, we expect a lower decrease in terms of prices because the quality that Argentinian peanuts have will be sold all to this market that is not reducing the price.

再詳細講我們在農作物上的分佈情況，今年我們增加的是大豆，相對於玉米來說。但更重要的是，考慮到我們預計未來價格將如何變化，我們正在種植更多的花生，而且我們正從更好的租賃土地開始。因此，我們預計明年會有更好的產量。花生正在成為一種非常相關的作物。在花生方面，由於歐洲是阿根廷花生的主要買家，我們預計價格下降幅度較小，因為阿根廷花生的品質將全部銷往這個不會降低價格的市場。

Then we also have an increase in sunflower that sunflower is playing a different role than the other commodities. And that's why because of the oils and the increase in the price of oils, sunflower is at a better price than the previous year. That's why we are also increasing that one.

然後我們還增加了向日葵，向日葵發揮著與其他商品不同的作用。這就是為什麼由於油和油價格的上漲，向日葵的價格比去年更好。這就是為什麼我們也在增加這數量。

And then the most relevant crop that we are having today, as you can see in our reports, is the rice. And in terms of rice, although we expect that the average of the rice in general worldwide is going down, we do produce special varieties because of our seed genetics. So our model of being fully integrated in terms of rice is giving us a competitive advantage of reaching special clients where we can defend our price in a much better way.

正如您在我們的報告中看到的，我們今天擁有的最相關的作物是水稻。就水稻而言，儘管我們預計全球水稻的平均產量正在下降，但由於我們的種子遺傳學，我們確實生產了特殊品種。因此，我們在大米方面完全整合的模式為我們提供了接觸特殊客戶的競爭優勢，我們可以更好地捍衛我們的價格。

Also, we've been developing and we've been doing a lot of CapEx, as you've seen, in Rice, developing rice production and developing the processing machineries or the processing mills to process all that rice or all that different segregated varieties that can also help us to maintain those prices, and that's why we are seeing record levels in terms of EBITDA, and we can project that to the future, too.

此外，正如您所看到的，我們一直在大米領域進行開發，並進行了大量的資本支出，開發大米生產並開發加工機械或加工工廠來加工所有大米或所有不同的隔離品種這也可以幫助我們維持這些價格，這就是為什麼我們看到EBITDA 創紀錄水平，我們也可以將其預測到未來。

Finally, in terms of all this allocation of the different crops within the farming system, it is also important to understand that dairy is also growing and the whole processing of dairy is growing. And here, the domestic market of our dairy products are paying off, and we are becoming a relevant player within that sector that is helping us again to maintain or increase our prices in terms of what we are selling.

最後，就農業系統內不同作物的所有分配而言，了解乳製品也在增長以及乳製品的整個加工也在增長也很重要。在這裡，我們的乳製品國內市場正在獲得回報，我們正在成為該行業的重要參與者，這有助於我們再次維持或提高我們所銷售產品的價格。

So that's basically a quick summary on how we are planning this new harvest season and what are the main movement within the crops of farming as a general.

這基本上是對我們如何計劃這個新的收穫季節以及農業作物的主要變化的快速總結。

Matheus Enfeldt, UBS.

馬修斯恩菲爾德，瑞銀集團。

First, happy to be here, and congrats on the results. My first question is on CapEx. Adecoagro has been running a slightly higher rate for this year, particularly in expansion CapEx in sugar and ethanol. So I wanted to get a sense from you on how this advances through time. I assume that 2024, 2025 and 2026 are likely to be years of higher CapEx when we compare to the past couple of years.

首先，很高興來到這裡，並對結果表示祝賀。我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。Adecoagro 今年的成長率略高，特別是在糖和乙醇的資本支出擴張方面。所以我想從你們那裡了解隨著時間的推移，這一切是如何進展的。與過去幾年相比，我認為 2024 年、2025 年和 2026 年可能是資本支出較高的年份。

But my question is how you're seeing this advance. And in general, what's the appropriate level that the company can perform if it's -- there is a potential to climb closer to $300 million in order to accelerate a few of the growth opportunities? So that's my first question.

但我的問題是你如何看待這項進展。總的來說，如果公司有潛力攀升至接近 3 億美元以加速一些成長機會，那麼該公司可以實現的適當水平是多少？這是我的第一個問題。

And then my second question, I think, a follow-up to the previous one, which is -- I think the message on prices and productivity is clear, but how you're seeing costs develop as well.

我認為，我的第二個問題是前一個問題的後續問題，即——我認為關於價格和生產力的資訊很明確，但你如何看待成本的發展。

Okay. Thank you, Matheus, for your question. Number one and the more quick answer in terms of cost development, I think this is a very important question because we've been always developing these sustainable production models in the four business lines or business segments that we have, thinking on being the lowest cost producer. So for us, the cost is very relevant here, and this approach of being the lowest cost producer is always helping in these scenarios where prices or commodity prices are going down. So this is an important approach.

好的。謝謝馬修斯的提問。第一，關於成本開發的更快速的答案，我認為這是一個非常重要的問題，因為我們一直在我們擁有的四個業務線或業務部門中開發這些可持續生產模式，並考慮成本最低製片人。因此，對我們來說，成本在這裡非常重要，這種成為成本最低生產商的方法總是在價格或商品價格下降的情況下有所幫助。所以這是一個重要的方法。

And as you can -- or maybe you don't see it yet in these reports because we are comparing '24 to '23 campaign. But when we are planning our next campaign and when we are planting today, we are reducing costs. And if we assume yields being in line with the history and what we are projecting according to what we are planting today, we do expect a reduction in cost of production in general going forward. That's something that we can expect, and we are working to be there in the near future. So making this quick clarification in terms of cost.

正如您所看到的，或者也許您在這些報告中還沒有看到這一點，因為我們正在比較「24」和「23」的活動。但是，當我們計劃下一個活動以及今天的種植時，我們正在降低成本。如果我們假設產量符合歷史以及我們根據今天種植的作物所預測的產量，那麼我們確實預計未來生產成本總體會下降。這是我們可以期待的事情，我們正在努力在不久的將來實現這一目標。因此，從成本方面快速澄清一下。

Now I'm going to get to your question on CapEx. And in order to answer the CapEx question, I would like to refresh what Emilio has just said about the capital allocation. When we're thinking CapEx, we are always thinking within the overall concept of capital allocation. So as you can see, the first thing that we are going to maintain and we are being very strict is on complying our policy of distributing at least 40% of the net cash from operation of the previous year.

現在我要回答你關於資本支出的問題。為了回答資本支出問題，我想回顧一下埃米利奧剛才所說的關於資本配置的內容。當我們考慮資本支出時，我們總是在資本配置的整體概念範圍內思考。正如你所看到的，我們要維持的第一件事是非常嚴格地遵守我們的政策，即分配至少 40% 的上一年營運淨現金。

So as you can see in 2024, we are distributing more than that, and we are returning almost 10% of the total equity of the company. So making this clarification and having clear that this is our priority and will continue to be a very relevant priority, we are very happy that we are seeing now some growth opportunities in all these different segments that we have.

正如你所看到的，到 2024 年，我們的分配將不止於此，我們將返還公司總股本的近 10%。因此，做出這項澄清並明確這是我們的優先事項並將繼續是一個非常相關的優先事項，我們非常高興我們現在在我們擁有的所有這些不同細分市場中看到了一些成長機會。

As you can see, I'm getting into the details of this CapEx that we are increasing, not a lot, but increasing from '23 to '24. You can see in the sugar and ethanol that has been the segment where we've been more stable and where we've been more clear in the communication on this growth. This around $50 million per year that we are still investing year '24 and '25 are two main CapEx there that we are looking at.

正如您所看到的，我正在詳細介紹我們正在增加的資本支出，雖然不是很多，但從 23 年增加到 24 年。你可以看到，在糖和乙醇領域，我們的表現更加穩定，而且我們對這種成長的溝通也更加清晰。我們在 24 年和 25 年仍在投資，每年約 5000 萬美元，這是我們正在考慮的兩個主要資本支出。

Number one is the biomethane that we've been talking before, where we are financing this -- the production of biomethane through the vinasse that we have already explained in various calls before. And this is helping us to replace the diesel and reduce our cost of production as a whole. And these are returns that are between 15% to 20% in terms of unlevered return. As they are financed by FINEP at very cheap rates, the levered returns are very high.

第一個是我們之前討論過的生物甲烷，我們正在為此提供資金——透過酒糟生產生物甲烷，我們已經在之前的各種電話中解釋過。這有助於我們取代柴油並降低整體生產成本。就無槓桿回報而言，這些回報在 15% 到 20% 之間。由於FINEP以非常便宜的利率為它們提供資金，因此槓桿回報率非常高。

Then the other important growth in sugar and ethanol is the planting of sugarcane. Planting sugar -- we are in a region where we are still having opportunities to have good leases and good areas where we can continue to expand the sugarcane. And this is the base to all what we are producing. Once we have these increases, we also have some bottlenecks that we can take out of the whole chain of milling, and we are increasing milling at a relatively low cost of production. So that is how we are growing on the -- and the CapEx we are doing on the sugarcane business.

糖和乙醇的另一個重要成長是甘蔗的種植。種植糖—我們所在的地區仍然有機會擁有良好的租賃權和可以繼續擴大甘蔗種植的良好區域。這是我們生產的所有產品的基礎。一旦我們實現了這些成長，我們也可以解決整個銑削鏈中的一些瓶頸，並且我們正在以相對較低的生產成本增加銑削。這就是我們在甘蔗業務上的成長以及資本支出的方式。

Then moving into the Rice, Dairy and Crops, as I mentioned before, Rice is doing very well, and these investments in genetics -- in seed genetics, in machinery and in more production is also paying off because we are reaching to the right markets. We are also investing in our own port to export at the clients we have all over the world. So those investments in Rice are being very profitable today.

然後進入水稻、乳製品和農作物領域，正如我之前提到的，水稻表現非常好，這些在遺傳學方面的投資——種子遺傳學、機械和更多生產也得到了回報，因為我們正在進入正確的市場。我們也投資自己的港口，向世界各地的客戶出口。因此，今天對萊斯的投資非常有利可圖。

And also, the second in relevance on the amount of investments is on the Dairy business. On the Dairy business, we are not increasing a lot in terms of production. We are increasing more the processing side, and we are increasing the investments like warehouse, what we are doing now, to reach the market consumer. So reaching this market consumer is giving us an additional price, and that's why it's being the most profitable thing. And that's something you are seeing every quarter that we are increasing the results on the Dairy segment as a whole.

此外，與投資金額相關的第二個是乳製品業務。在乳製品業務方面，我們的產量並沒有大幅增加。我們正在增加更多的加工方面，我們正在增加像倉庫這樣的投資，我們現在正在做的事情，以到達市場消費者。因此，進入這個市場消費者為我們帶來了額外的價格，這就是為什麼它是最有利可圖的事情。每個季度你都會看到我們整個乳製品部門的業績都在增加。

So those are the investments that are happening in the overall company. All of them are within the segments that we have, and they are all with IRRs between 18% to 25% and always thinking on unlevered IRRs.

這些是整個公司正在進行的投資。它們都在我們擁有的細分市場內，並且 IRR 都在 18% 到 25% 之間，並且始終考慮無槓桿 IRR。

Just a heads-up that we received a question from Larissa Pérez from JPMorgan, but it was already addressed during Isabella Simonato's question.

請注意，我們收到了摩根大通的拉里薩·佩雷斯 (Larissa Pérez) 提出的問題，但在伊莎貝拉·西蒙納托 (Isabella Simonato) 的提問中已經解決了這個問題。

(Operator Instructions) This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）問答部分到此結束。現在，我想請博斯先生發表結束語。

We would like to thank you all for joining the call and for the support we've been receiving and hope to see you in our upcoming events.

我們衷心感謝大家加入此次電話會議以及我們一直以來所獲得的支持，並希望在我們即將舉行的活動中見到您。

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.

謝謝。今天的演講到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，祝您度過愉快的一天。