Adecoagro SA (AGRO) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's First Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call.

早安，女士們先生們，感謝您的等待。此時，我們歡迎大家參加 Adecoagro 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。

Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP and Mrs. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer.

今天與我們在一起的有首席執行官馬裡亞諾·博世 (Mariano Bosch) 先生； Emilio Gnecco 先生，財務長； Renato Junqueira Pereira 先生，糖業、乙醇和能源副總裁，Victoria Cabello 女士，投資者關係官。

We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded (Operator Instructions)

我們想通知您此事件正在記錄中（操作員說明）

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，我要指出的是，前瞻性陳述是基於 Adecoagro 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前掌握的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或不發生的情況。投資人應了解，總體經濟狀況、產業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Adecoagro 的未來業績，並可能導致結果與此類前瞻性聲明中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

現在我將會議交給執行長馬裡亞諾·博世先生。博世先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2024 First Quarter Results Conference. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the quarter reached $90 million, in line with our previous year. Our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business reported a crushing record figure for the first quarter ever since we set foot in Brazil. This was possible, thanks to all the investments done in expansion planting to have good cane availability. In fact, we were 1 of the only players harvesting and producing sugar, we continue to command an attractive premium over ethanol during the quarter. Having in place a continuous harvest model enabled us to crush cane year-round and to constantly supply new products to the market, especially during Brazil's inter-harvest period, without mentioning that the higher the milling, the lower our cost of production. Despite this outstanding operational performance, the decrease in the forward curve of sugar prices was the main driver towards the year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA generation for this particular segment.

早安，感謝您參加 Adecoagro 2024 年第一季業績會議。本季綜合調整後 EBITDA 達 9,000 萬美元，與前一年持平。自從我們踏足巴西以來，我們的糖、乙醇和能源業務第一季的業績創下了歷史新高。這是可能的，這要歸功於在擴大種植方面所做的所有投資，以獲得良好的甘蔗可用性。事實上，我們是唯一收割和生產糖的參與者之一，本季我們繼續獲得比乙醇有吸引力的溢價。建立連續收穫模式使我們能夠全年壓榨甘蔗，並不斷向市場供應新產品，特別是在巴西的收穫間期，更不用說研磨度越高，我們的生產成本就越低。儘管經營業績出色，但食糖價格遠期曲線的下降是該特定細分市場調整後 EBITDA 生成量年減的主要驅動因素。

Moving to our farming operations. the outperformance in all 3 operating segments shows the daily effort and hard work of our teams towards maximizing yields and still being the low-cost producer. In crops, normal weather conditions translated into a significant recovery in yields, consequently into results despite the lower international prices for soy, corn and wheat. We are currently in the middle of the harvest season. Therefore, yields are still being refined, but we know that we are on track towards a normal operating year for this segment. Furthermore, having in place a sustainable integrated business model in our rice operation enabled us to capture an important year-over-year increase in the average selling price, as we were the only rice producers with available production when stocks were limited. This is so since we have flexibility to cater, to both the domestic and export market with our high value-added products.

轉向我們的農業經營。所有 3 個營運部門的出色表現表明了我們團隊為實現產量最大化並始終保持低成本生產商的日常努力和辛勤工作。在農作物方面，儘管國際大豆、玉米和小麥價格較低，但正常的天氣條件轉化為產量的顯著回升，從而帶來了成果。我們目前正處於收穫季節。因此，收益率仍在完善中，但我們知道，我們正朝著該部門的正常營運年度邁進。此外，在我們的大米業務中建立可持續的綜合業務模式使我們能夠實現平均售價的同比大幅增長，因為我們是唯一一家在庫存有限時仍能生產的大米生產商。之所以如此，是因為我們可以靈活地利用高附加價值產品來滿足國內和出口市場的需求。

In the dairy segment, the significant recovery in crop yields led to a reduction in the cost of feed of our dairy cows, which is 1 of the main cost components for this business. Moreover, we continue working on product development for the domestic and export markets and taking advantage of our flexibility to supply both markets with our dairy portfolio.

在乳製品領域，作物產量的顯著回升導致乳牛飼料成本下降，這是該業務的主要成本組成之一。此外，我們繼續致力於國內和出口市場的產品開發，並利用我們的靈活性為這兩個市場提供乳製品產品組合。

Before passing the word to Emilio, a brief update on our distribution policy. On April 17, our Annual Shareholder Meeting approved a total cash dividend distribution of $35 million. And in addition to this, we continue buying back shares under our program. We have already repurchased 2.6 million shares equal to 2.4% of the company's equity. As you may see, we are committed to our distribution policy, while we continue investing in growth projects with attractive IRRs and maintaining our debt levels.

在向 Emilio 傳達訊息之前，先簡單介紹一下我們的分銷政策。4 月 17 日，我們的年度股東大會批准了總額為 3500 萬美元的現金股利分配。除此之外，我們也繼續根據我們的計畫回購股票。我們已經回購了260萬股股票，相當於公司股本的2.4%。正如您所看到的，我們致力於我們的分配政策，同時我們繼續投資具有有吸引力的 IRR 的成長項目並維持我們的債務水平。

To conclude, I would like to reiterate my gratitude to all our employees, contractors and stakeholders for their hard work and commitment. Now I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the quarter.

最後，我想再次感謝我們所有員工、承包商和利害關係人的辛勤工作和承諾。現在我將讓艾米利奧向您介紹本季的數據。

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on Page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results. Gross sales totaled $254 million during the first quarter, 3% higher year-over-year. This was mostly explained by greater sugar cane crushed, which enabled us to increase our sugar production and execute sales at solid prices. In addition, our rice operations reported a 83% year-over-year increase in the average selling price, driven by limited supply, both in the export and domestic markets. Adjusted EBITDA reached $90 million, in line with the previous year. The outperformance of all the 3 of our farming businesses fully offset the decline reported in the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business, which was explained by a loss in our biological assets, driven by a reduction of sugar and ethanol price.

謝謝你，馬裡亞諾。大家，早安。讓我們從第四頁開始總​​結我們的合併財務表現。第一季總銷售額達 2.54 億美元，年增 3%。這主要是因為壓榨的甘蔗增多，這使我們能夠增加糖產量並以穩定的價格進行銷售。此外，由於出口和國內市場供應有限，我們的米業務平均售價年增 83%。調整後 EBITDA 達到 9,000 萬美元，與前一年持平。我們所有 3 項農業業務的優異表現完全抵消了糖、乙醇和能源業務的下降，這是由於糖和乙醇價格下降導致我們的生物資產損失。

Now please turn to Slide 5. Regarding our production figures, in the bottom right chart, we can see that crushing volumes in our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business were up 47% versus the same period of last year. Higher crushing translates into higher production volume, thus increasing sales and diluting costs. Total production in our farming division reported a 19% year-over-year increase explained by a fully recovering yields after normal weather conditions experienced during the development of our crops as well as through higher planted area.

現在請翻到投影片 5。關於我們的產量數據，在右下圖表中，我們可以看到我們的糖、乙醇和能源業務的壓榨量比去年同期增加了 47%。更高的破碎率意味著更高的產量，從而增加銷售量並稀釋成本。我們農業部門的總產量年增 19%，這是由於作物生長過程中經歷的正常天氣條件以及種植面積增加導致單產完全恢復。

Let's move to Slide 7 with the operational performance of our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. During the first quarter of 2024, crushing volume amounted to 2.2 million tonnes, an all-time record for our first quarter milling figure. This was mainly explained by greater sugarcane availability due to the expansion planting activities carried out over the past years. Regarding productivity, TRS per hectare remained in line versus last year, as TRS content presented a 5% year-over-year improvement, reaching 117 kilograms per ton while yields amounted to 70 tons per hectare. In terms of mix, we diverted as much as 49% of our TRS to sugar in line with our strategy to maximize production of the product with the highest marginal contribution, taking advantage of the high degree of flexibility of our mills.

讓我們轉到投影片 7，了解我們的糖、乙醇和能源業務的營運績效。2024 年第一季度，破碎量達到 220 萬噸，創第一季製粉量歷史最高紀錄。這主要是由於過去幾年進行的擴大種植活動導致甘蔗供應量增加。生產力方面，每公頃TRS與去年持平，TRS含量年增5%，達到每噸117公斤，產量達到每公頃70噸。在混合方面，我們將多達 49% 的 TRS 轉為糖，這符合我們的策略，即充分利用工廠的高度靈活性，以最高的邊際貢獻最大化產品的產量。

Within our ethanol production, 91% was hydrous compared to 29% in the previous year as demand for this type of ethanol has been significantly increasing and gaining market share, offering the better margin.

在我們的乙醇生產中，91% 是含水乙醇，而去年這一比例為 29%，因為對此類乙醇的需求顯著增加並贏得了市場份額，從而提供了更好的利潤。

Let's please turn to Slide 8, where we described sales conducted throughout the period. Net sales amounted to $103 million during the quarter, making a 7% increase compared to the same period of last year. This was driven by higher sugar sales on higher prices and volume, which fully offset the overall reduction in ethanol sales due to the decline in selling prices. As you can see on the top left chart, our average selling price of sugar reached $0.238 per pound, thanks to our hedging strategy, which allow us to capture the rally in global sugar prices. Moreover, selling volumes amounted to 120,000 tonnes, due to the increase in production versus the prior year as a result of the higher milling.

讓我們翻到投影片 8，我們在其中描述了整個期間的銷售情況。該季度淨銷售額達 1.03 億美元，較去年同期成長 7%。這是由於價格和銷量增加導致糖銷量增加，這完全抵消了由於銷售價格下降而導致的乙醇銷售整體下降。正如您在左上角圖表中看到的那樣，由於我們的對沖策略使我們能夠抓住全球糖價上漲的機會，我們的糖平均售價達到每磅 0.238 美元。此外，由於銑削量增加，產量較前一年增加，銷售量達 12 萬噸。

In the case of ethanol, selling volumes were up 11% versus the prior year on higher demand of hydrous ethanol, whereas the average selling price decreased 30% year-over-year. Lower prices were explained by higher inventory levels carried into the inter-harvest period, which resulted in more supply of ethanol in the market. Although the average selling price of energy increased by 2% compared to the prior year, selling volumes were down 13% as we prioritized the volume contracted and saved our bagasse for more profitable guarantees.

就乙醇而言，由於含水乙醇的需求增加，銷量比上年增長了 11%，而平均售價較去年同期下降了 30%。價格較低的原因是收穫間期庫存水準較高，導致市場上乙醇供應增加。儘管能源的平均售價比去年上漲了 2%，但銷量卻下降了 13%，因為我們優先考慮合約量，並節省了甘蔗渣以保證更多的利潤。

Regarding carbon credits, we sold over 80,000 CBios at an average price of $19 per CBio.

關於碳信用額，我們以每個 CBio 19 美元的平均價格出售了 80,000 多個 CBio。

Please go to Page 9, where we would like to present the financial performance of the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $52 million in the first quarter, 32% lower than the same period of last year. Despite the year-over-year increase in milling and sales results were negatively impacted by a year-over-year loss in the mark-to-market of our biological assets, but the outlook of sugar prices is lower compared to last year, coupled with higher freight costs on higher sugar sales.

請轉至第 9 頁，我們將在此介紹糖、乙醇和能源業務的財務表現。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,200 萬美元，比去年同期下降 32%。儘管製粉和銷售業績的同比增長受到我們生物資產按市價計價同比下降的負面影響，但食糖價格的前景與去年相比較低，加上食糖銷量增加導致運費上漲。

Finally, to conclude with the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business, please turn to Slide 10 where we would like to briefly talk about the current outlook. Rentals received over the last few weeks continue to favor the productivity of our plantation. Assuming weather going normal, we expect to increase our crushing volume versus 2023 as we have sufficient sugarcane availability to use our industrial capacity. This in turn will result in a reduction of in unitary cash cost, due to better dilution of fixed costs.

最後，作為糖、乙醇和能源業務的總結，請參閱投影片 10，我們將在其中簡要討論當前的前景。過去幾週收到的租金繼續有利於我們種植園的生產力。假設天氣正常，我們預計壓榨量將比 2023 年增加，因為我們有足夠的甘蔗供應來利用我們的工業產能。由於固定成本得到更好的攤薄，這反過來又會導致單一現金成本的降低。

From a commercial point of view, the evolution of sugar prices will mostly depend on Brazil's production and logistics. We have approximately 40% of our expected 2024 sugar production still unhedged, while the balance was committed at an average price close to $0.24 per pound.

從商業角度來看，食糖價格的演變將主要取決於巴西的生產和物流。我們預計 2024 年食糖產量中約有 40% 仍未對沖，而其餘部分的平均價格接近每磅 0.24 美元。

In the case of ethanol, by the beginning of April, prices recovered 30% compared to lowest levels reported in early 2024. Consequently, we sold over 80,000 cubic meters of ethanol at an average price of $566 per cubic meter, profiting from the peak in prices to partially clear our tanks. We believe ethanol prices have room to continue increasing due to the current low parity at the pump.

就乙醇而言，到 4 月初，價格較 2024 年初報告的最低水準回升了 30%。因此，我們以每立方米 566 美元的平均價格出售了超過 80,000 立方米的乙醇，從價格高峰中獲利，部分清理了我們的儲罐。我們認為，由於目前汽油價格較低，乙醇價格仍有持續上漲的空間。

Now we would like to move on to the Farming business. Please go to Slide 12. We are currently undergoing harvesting activities for most of our grains. As of the end of April, we have received 47% of the total area and produced over 600,000 tonnes of agriculture produce. Normal weather conditions registered throughout the yield definition stage of all our crops favored crop development and led to a full recovery in yields.

現在我們想轉向農業業務。請轉到投影片 12。我們目前正在進行大部分穀物的收穫活動。截至4月底，我們已獲得總面積的47%，生產農產品超過60萬噸。我們所有作物的產量定義階段的正常天氣條件有利於作物生長，並導致產量全面恢復。

In the case of late corn, the northern region of Argentina has been negatively impacted by Spiroplasma, a bacterium, which is conducted leafhopper. This bacterium reproduces under tropical conditions as in Brazil and Paraguay and recently spread to the Northern Argentina, even the high humidity and temperature registered. Thus, approximately 15% of our total corn production was impacted in line with the decline in Argentina's total corn production. Regardless of that, we are still focusing yields in line with historical levels, since our geographic diversification enabled us not only to mitigate weather risk, but also this type of diseases that may affect a given crop in a certain [year].

就晚期玉米而言，阿根廷北部地區受到螺旋原體（一種由葉蟬傳播的細菌）的負面影響。這種細菌在熱帶條件下繁殖，如巴西和巴拉圭，最近傳播到阿根廷北部，甚至在高濕度和高溫下也是如此。因此，隨著阿根廷玉米總產量的下降，我們玉米總產量的約 15% 受到了影響。儘管如此，我們仍然將產量重點放在歷史層面上，因為我們的地理多元化不僅使我們能夠減輕天氣風險，而且還能減輕可能在特定時期影響特定作物的此類疾病。[年]。

Lastly, we have already harvested 88% of our rice, reaching an average yield of 6.5 tons per hectare, although it was a challenging campaign, due to the evolution of weather conditions throughout the different growth stages of our rise, we were able to obtain an improvement in yields.

最後，我們已經收穫了 88% 的水稻，達到每公頃 6.5 噸的平均產量，儘管這是一個充滿挑戰的活動，但由於我們在不同生長階段天氣條件的變化，我們還是能夠獲得產量的提高。

On the following Page 13, we present the financial performance of our Farming business. Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business totaled $44 million during the quarter, making a $25 million year-over-year increase. Higher results are mainly explained by an outperformance in all 3 segments.

在接下來的第 13 頁，我們介紹了我們農業業務的財務表現。本季農業業務調整後 EBITDA 總計 4,400 萬美元，年增 2,500 萬美元。較高的業績主要歸因於所有 3 個細分市場的出色表現。

Before going into the results of each operating segment, I would like to briefly recall that we have modified our internal reporting to refine the way we view our farming business and its interaction with our land transformation activity. Consequently, we recasted previously reported segment financial information.

在討論每個營運部門的表現之前，我想簡要回顧一下，我們已經修改了內部報告，以完善我們看待農業業務及其與土地改造活動相互作用的方式。因此，我們重新調整了先前報告的分部財務資訊。

Adjusted EBITDA for our crop segment amounted to $5 million during the first quarter, making a $6 million year-over-year increase. This was fully driven by the recovery in yields, which resulted in a $15 million year-over-year gain in the mark-to-market of our biological assets. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we completed the sale of La Pecuaria farm located in the province of Durazno, Uruguay, for a selling price of $21 million collected in full at closing. [This] transaction generated an adjusted EBITDA of $15 million, which will be booked in our crop segment in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in our rice segment was $33 million, $19 million more than the same period of last year. This was mainly explained by a $13 million year-over-year gain in the mark-to-market of our biological assets on a better campaign in terms of area, productivity and prices. Moreover, we were able to capture an average selling price of $433 per ton higher than the prior year as we were the only rice producer with available stocks at the moment when rice supply was limited.

第一季我們農作物業務的調整後 EBITDA 達到 500 萬美元，年增 600 萬美元。這完全是由收益率的復甦推動的，收益率的復甦導致我們的生物資產以市價計算同比增長了 1500 萬美元。本季末，我們完成了位於烏拉圭杜拉斯諾省 La Pecuaria 農場的出售，成交價為 2,100 萬美元。 [此]交易產生了 1500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，該金額將在第二季度計入我們的作物部門。米業務調整後 EBITDA 為 3,300 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1,900 萬美元。這主要是由於在面積、生產力和價格方面開展了更好的活動，我們的生物資產按市值計算同比增長了 1,300 萬美元。此外，我們的平均售價比去年高出每噸 433 美元，因為我們是在大米供應有限時唯一擁有可用庫存的大米生產商。

Moving on to the Dairy segment. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $6 million, 5% higher than the prior year. Results were positively impacted by a year-over-year decline in our cost structure, mainly related to the cost of fee, as our in-house production recovered lower crop output reported during the prior year due to the dry weather.

轉向乳製品領域。調整後 EBITDA 總計 600 萬美元，比上年增長 5%。我們的成本結構同比下降（主要與費用成本有關）對結果產生了積極影響，因為我們的內部生產恢復了去年因天氣乾燥而報告的較低作物產量。

Let's turn now to Page 15, where we would like to present our capital allocation strategy. According to our distribution policy, we are committed to a minimum distribution of 40% of the cash generated during the previous year via a combination of cash dividends and share repurchase. In 2023, we generated $176 million of net cash from operations. Consequently, our minimum distribution amounts to $70 million during the current year. In terms of dividends, a dividend distribution of $35 million was approved during our Annual Shareholder Meeting held on April 17. First installment of $17.5 million will be paid on May 29 and represents approximately $0.17 per share versus the second installment, shall be payable during November in an equal cash amount. In addition, we have already repurchased $27 million in shares under our buyback program, which represents approximately 2.4% of the company's equity.

現在讓我們翻到第 15 頁，我們將在其中介紹我們的資本配置策略。根據我們的分配政策，我們承諾透過現金分紅和股票回購相結合的方式至少分配上一年度產生的現金的40%。2023 年，我們的營運淨現金為 1.76 億美元。因此，我們本年度的最低分配金額為 7,000 萬美元。股利方面，4月17日舉行的年度股東大會上批准了3,500萬美元的股利分配。第一期付款 1,750 萬美元將於 5 月 29 日支付，相當於每股約 0.17 美元，而第二期付款則應在 11 月期間以等額現金支付。此外，我們已經根據回購計畫回購了 2,700 萬美元的股票，約占公司股本的 2.4%。

Please turn to Page 16 for a broader view of our debt position. Net debt amounted to $639 million, making a 23% decrease compared to the same period of last year. This was explained by a significant reduction in the gross debt position as a result of our financial strategy carried out during 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, and also better results from operations. As shown in our financial figures, the reduction in our net debt position was done without disattending our distribution policy and growth projects.

請翻至第 16 頁，更全面地了解我們的債務狀況。淨債務達6.39億美元，較去年同期下降23%。這是因為我們在 2023 年和 2024 年第一季實施的財務策略導致總債務狀況大幅減少，而且營運表現也有所改善。正如我們的財務數據所示，淨債務部位的減少並沒有影響我們的分配政策和成長項目。

As of March 31, 2024, our liquidity ratio reached 2.9x, showing the company's full capacity to repay short-term debt with its cash balances, whereas our net leverage ratio was 1.3x, 0.6x lower compared to the previous year. On the following slide, we describe our CapEx program. Expansion CapEx represented $29 million in the first quarter of 2024. In Brazil, we continue increasing our sugarcane plantation, investing in our biogas unit Ivinhema mill where our methane production takes place. In our farming business, we paid the third and final installment of the acquisition of Viterra's rice mills in Argentina and Uruguay to expand our geographic footprint in rice portfolio. Thank you very much for your time. We are now open to questions.

截至2024年3月31日，我們的流動性比率達到2.9倍，顯示公司完全有能力用現金餘額償還短期債務，而淨槓桿率為1.3倍，較上年下降0.6倍。在下一張投影片中，我們描述了我們的資本支出計劃。2024 年第一季的擴張資本支出為 2,900 萬美元。在巴西，我們繼續擴大甘蔗種植園，投資於沼氣廠 Ivinhema 工廠，我們在那裡生產甲烷。在我們的農業業務中，我們支付了收購阿根廷和烏拉圭 Viterra 碾米廠的第三筆也是最後一筆分期付款，以擴大我們在大米投資組合中的地理足跡。非常感謝您的寶貴時間。我們現在願意接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Henrique Brustolin with BTG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BTG 的 Henrique Brustolin。

I have two, I think both of them for Renato in the Sugar and Ethanol business. The first, I would just like to hear a little bit more about how is -- what's your view behind what's happening to sugar prices, right? We saw this sharp contraction in recent weeks. So how do you -- what do you think is behind it? And what do you expect for the remainder of the year when it comes to sugar, right?

我有兩個，我想他們都是雷納託在糖和乙醇業務上的。首先，我想多聽聽您對糖價變化的看法，對嗎？最近幾週我們看到了這種急劇收縮。那你認為背後的原因是什麼？在糖方面，您對今年剩餘時間有何期望，對嗎？

And the second one, also in sugar and ethanol is how that changes the company's perspective in terms of results for the year, right? We are seeing -- the hedging position was already pretty advanced. Ethanol prices are stronger at the margin, but the sugar curve is now lower. And on the other hand, you also have, I think, a good perspective in terms of unitary costs. So if you could just discuss a little bit on how that changes or how is the view in terms of results for the whole crop season? -- even when compared to the previous one, I think it would be very helpful.

第二個也是在糖和乙醇領域，這將如何改變公司對今年業績的看法，對吧？我們看到——對沖頭寸已經相當先進了。乙醇價格小幅走強，但糖曲線現在較低。另一方面，我認為，您對單一成本也有很好的看法。那麼，您能否稍微討論一下這種情況如何變化，或者對整個作物季節的結果有何看法？ ——即使與前一個相比，我認為這也會非常有幫助。

Henrique, this is Mariano. Thank you for your questions. The second question, talking about the impact on the results. It is important to understand that the sugar price, although we have already fixed 57% of the price at a much higher price than today's prices. There is an impact on the biological assets. So that's why the EBITDA is reduced, and that's what we explained in the numbers. For the full year, the same concept would be there in terms of the biological asset impact. So we can expect on the whole Sugar and Ethanol business to be lower than the previous year, although there is an increase on production efficiencies, et cetera. But we can also see an increase on the other crops that will probably compensate that reduction on the sugar and ethanol sector. So making this quick clarification on what we expect, I would like to Renato to go deeper in terms of what's our view on the price of sugar and what could happen 1 way or the other.

恩里克，這是馬裡亞諾。謝謝您的提問。第二個問題，談談對結果的影響。重要的是要了解糖價，儘管我們已經將57%的價格固定在比今天的價格高得多的價格上。對生物資產有影響。這就是 EBITDA 減少的原因，這就是我們在數字中解釋的內容。對於全年而言，生物資產影響方面將存在相同的概念。因此，我們預計整個糖和乙醇業務將低於去年，儘管生產效率等有所提高。但我們也可以看到其他作物的成長可能會彌補糖和乙醇產業的減少。因此，快速澄清我們的預期，我希望雷納托更深入地了解我們對糖價的看法以及可能發生的情況。

Henrique. So I think it's important to talk a little bit about the price of sugar and ethanol as both are important to see how our price is going to be. So starting with sugar, we think that with the perspective of Brazil, you produce 42 million, 43 million tonnes of sugar. The market projections have moved from a small debt to a small surplus. But the stocks worldwide, this is still very low. Actually, the stock-to-use ratio is 1 of the lowest -- I think it's the lowest since in 2011, and the supply is very dependent on the Brazil's crop. So any news about the reductions in the Brazilian crop, any weather issue, it can trigger up increase in sugar price.

恩里克.因此，我認為討論一下糖和乙醇的價格很重要，因為兩者對於了解我們的價格將如何非常重要。因此，從糖開始，我們認為從巴西的角度來看，您生產 4,200 萬至 4,300 萬噸糖。市場預測已從小額債務轉向小額盈餘。但就全球庫存而言，這仍然很低。實際上，庫存與使用比率是最低的1——我認為這是自2011年以來的最低水平，而且供應非常依賴巴西的作物。因此，任何有關巴西產量減少的消息，任何天氣問題，都可能引發糖價上漲。

We are, as Mariano mentioned, we are 57% hedged at $0.236 per pound, and we are very optimistic about the ethanol, we're very constructive about the ethanol scenario in the short term. So we think that is very likely that we are going to change the mix in Mato Grosso do Sul at some point in the second semester. And we are very conservative with ethanol scenario because we think that the supply of ethanol is going to be lower this year as the sugarcane crushing in Brazil is going to be lower than last year, which was a high crushing season between 5% and 10% lower. I think the mix is going to be even more oriented to sugar, 3% or 2% more than it was last year. That was already very high, 49%.

正如馬裡亞諾所提到的，我們以每磅 0.236 美元的價格對沖 57%，我們對乙醇非常樂觀，我們對短期乙醇情境非常有建設性。因此，我們認為我們很可能會在第二學期的某個時候改變南馬托格羅索州的結構。我們對乙醇的看法非常保守，因為我們認為今年乙醇的供應將會減少，因為巴西的甘蔗壓榨量將低於去年，去年是壓榨季的 5% 至 10%降低。我認為這種組合將更加以糖為主，比去年增加 3% 或 2%。這已經非常高了，49%。

So as a result, the ethanol supply is going to be lower between 2 billion and 3 billion liters, which is much more than enough to compensate that small increase in the ethanol -- in the corn and ethanol increase. And the demand of ethanol is being very high. Actually, the ethanol demand increased 60% since January. And the parity at the pump is still at 65%. So very competitive and obviously still very competitive. Ethanol demand, monthly hydrous is reaching almost 2 billion liters of ethanol. So we think that the SMD of ethanol is very tight. So price has to move towards the 7% [parity] to curb demand at some point. And in this situation, we are going to change the mix from sugar to ethanol, we believe.

因此，乙醇供應量將減少 20 億至 30 億公升，足以補償乙醇的小幅成長——玉米和乙醇的成長。乙醇的需求非常高。事實上，自1月以來，乙醇需求增加了60%。泵浦的平價仍為 65%。所以競爭非常激烈，而且顯然仍然非常有競爭力。每月含水乙醇需求量接近 20 億公升乙醇。所以我們認為乙醇的SMD是非常緊的。因此，價格必須向 7% [平價] 移動，以在某個時候抑制需求。我們相信，在這種情況下，我們將把混合物從糖改為乙醇。

Next question from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Isabella Simonato。

Mariano, Emilio. I have 2 questions. First of all, on the Rice business, right? We have been seeing a pretty big increasing prices, right, and even the prices that you guys delivered in Q1 caused a lot of the attention. But I would like to hear from you, how do you see rice pricing dynamics, right, especially considering a potential impact in the South of Brazil. So if you could elaborate a little bit on the outlook for the rest of the year, I think would be quite helpful.

馬裡亞諾，埃米利奧。我有 2 個問題。首先，關於米業務，對吧？我們已經看到價格大幅上漲，對吧，甚至你們在第一季交付的價格也引起了很多關注。但我想聽聽您的意見，您如何看待米價動態，特別是考慮到對巴西南部的潛在影響。因此，如果您能詳細闡述今年剩餘時間的前景，我認為將會非常有幫助。

And second question is on capital allocation, right? As you mentioned, you guys are finishing some CapEx right on sugar and ethanol and also on the Rice business. So I was wondering what could we expect next, right, in terms of CapEx and potential investments if there is any?

第二個問題是關於資本配置，對吧？正如你所提到的，你們正在完成糖和乙醇以及大米業務的一些資本支出。所以我想知道接下來我們可以期待什麼，對吧，在資本支出和潛在投資（如果有）方面？

Sure. Thank you, Isabella. On your first question regarding rice prices that I think -- it's important to understand the international general rice prices and our particular increase in terms of rice prices. As we've been talking before, we have this model where we are developing the genetics to produce at the farms and then process at the mills and then sell it to our specific clients where we are developing this whole chain, attending to the needs of our specific clients. That is important to understand that there is a portion of that increase in prices that is specific for the increase in, we call it, quality but is selling the right rice to the guy that is asking wherever in the world we are selling this rice. So that is a part of the answer on the increase in prices.

當然。謝謝你，伊莎貝拉。關於你關於大米價格的第一個問題，我認為了解國際大米總體價格以及我們在大米價格方面的特殊增長非常重要。正如我們之前所說，我們有這種模式，我們正在開發在農場生產的基因，然後在工廠加工，然後將其出售給我們的特定客戶，我們正在開發整個鏈條，滿足我們的特定客戶。重要的是要明白，價格上漲的一部分是特定於我們所說的品質的提高，但向那些詢問我們在世界任何地方銷售這種大米的人出售合適的大米。這就是價格上漲的部分答案。

There is another part of the increase in price that is very important in this quarter, that is the ability to sell in the domestic market and in the export market. So as there was a lack of rice in the region, we were able to capture a benefit in the domestic prices in terms of the -- those prices. And going forward, we continue to see this strategy and we are working every time more with this strategy, and I think it was very important to develop this strategy, what we did last year in increasing or 2-years ago when increasing and buying this -- with the assets of rice in Uruguay and consolidate our whole footprint in Argentina and Uruguay to continue to be absolutely in line with this strategy.

本季價格上漲還有一個非常重要的部分，那就是在國內市場和出口市場的銷售能力。因此，由於該地區缺乏大米，我們能夠從國內價格中獲得收益。展望未來，我們將繼續看到這項策略，我們每次都會更致力於這項策略，我認為制定這項策略非常重要，我們去年或兩年前增加和購買這項策略時所做的事情——利用烏拉圭的米資產，鞏固我們在阿根廷和烏拉圭的整個足跡，繼續絕對符合這項策略。

Furthermore, the lower supply of rice of the region is being lower than the average and probably within the lowest of the last years in terms of the total production of South America. And this total production has been affected by, in general terms, lower yields than the average because of the planting was late and then at the harvesting time, it was too rainy. So that happened to the overall area. And on top of that, we had this sad situation in Rio Grande do sul that is also -- Rio Grande do sul is a very important state in terms of the total supply of rice for the region. So we still don't know how much this will affect, but there is some, of course, effect on this lack of supply. So that's the overall concept for the rice business, and I don't know if you want to make any clarification.

此外，該地區大米供應量低於平均水平，可能是南美洲總產量近年來的最低水平。總體而言，總產量受到產量低於平均水平的影響，因為播種較晚，而收穫時下雨太多。整個地區都發生了這種情況。最重要的是，我們在南里奧格蘭德州遇到了這種悲慘的情況，就該地區的大米總供應而言，南里奧格蘭德州是一個非常重要的州。所以我們仍然不知道這會影響多大，但是供應不足當然會產生一些影響。這就是大米業務的整體概念，我不知道您是否需要澄清。

So going to your second question.

那麼接下來就回答你的第二個問題。

No, I was going to say that that it was clear.

不，我想說的是，這很清楚。

Okay. So going to the second part of your question and regarding capital allocation and CapEx, as Emilio explained pretty well in his last 2 slides of the presentation, we are compliant with our distribution policy. We are being very consistent there. And as you can see, we are well advanced in our buyback program, and that has been the case because we saw an opportunity on buying back shares and the returns we are obtaining there. And we may see that opportunity to continue to be there. So we'll see but there is a huge potential for increasing there or toward -- the policy talks about the minimum, doesn't talk about how much we can do. So that is 1 indication.

好的。因此，轉到問題的第二部分，關於資本分配和資本支出，正如埃米利奧在簡報的最後兩張幻燈片中很好地解釋的那樣，我們遵守我們的分配政策。我們在那裡表現得非常一致。正如您所看到的，我們的回購計劃進展順利，情況確實如此，因為我們看到了回購股票的機會以及我們從中獲得的回報。我們可能會看到繼續存在的機會。所以我們會看到，但那裡有巨大的成長潛力，或朝著這個方向發展——政策談論的是最低限度，沒有談論我們能做多少。這是 1 個指示。

And in the other part of the question regarding CapEx, we are seeing a very good opportunity in overall Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. And as Renato has been explaining so many times, the competitive advantages that we have there in the cluster that we are seeing today on how we've been harvesting during this inter-harvest period, we continue to grow there, and we continue to see this growth path that we are going. And today, particularly, you can see in the report that we've been planting more cane in the right moment that is in this -- in this first quarter. So we are happy with what we've been investing there, and that can continue to happen, consolidating the full plantation of what we are doing.

在有關資本支出的問題的另一部分中，我們在整個糖、乙醇和能源業務中看到了非常好的機會。正如雷納托（Renato）多次解釋的那樣，我們在集群中擁有的競爭優勢，我們今天看到的是我們在收穫間期的收穫方式，我們在那裡繼續增長，我們繼續看到我們正在走的這條成長之路。尤其是今天，您可以在報告中看到，我們在第一季的正確時機種植了更多甘蔗。因此，我們對在那裡的投資感到滿意，並且這種情況可以繼續發生，鞏固我們正在做的事情的整個種植園。

And on top of that, this law of Fuel of the Future that the Brazil has just passed or -- sorry, it's still to be pass in the Senate, but it has already been passed in the lower house. I think it's very much aligned with what we are doing there in Mato Grosso do Sul, that gives us a lot of enthusiastic on the long-term view of what we are building there and how efficient we are being there and totally aligned with Brazil's policy as a very long-term trend. So that's why you can see those CapEx in sugar and Ethanol continue to be there.

最重要的是，巴西剛通過的《未來燃料法》——抱歉，它仍有待參議院通過，但已經在下議院通過。我認為這與我們在南馬托格羅索州所做的事情非常一致，這讓我們對我們在那裡建設的長期觀點以及我們在那裡的效率充滿熱情，並且完全符合巴西的政策作為一個非常長期的趨勢。這就是為什麼你可以看到糖和乙醇的資本支出繼續存在。

And then particularly in the rice business, this also has been a very good investment what we did 2 years ago on this Viterra opportunity that we were talking. And now that is having a small increases in terms of production that is the key, as in sugarcane, we talk about the sugar -- in the Sugar and Ethanol business, we talk about sugarcane in the rice-integrated business, the most important portion is the total production of rice. So producing rice is something important for us, and we are doing some growth there in terms of the total production of rice. So that is a CapEx that we'll continue to see on this consolidation. And again, small synergetic projects in the whole chain of the rice business since the genetic, still the final consumer that we always find small projects to continue improving there.

特別是在大米業務方面，這也是我們兩年前在我們談論的 Viterra 機會上所做的一項非常好的投資。現在關鍵是產量小幅成長，就像在甘蔗中，我們談論糖——在糖和乙醇業務中，我們談論大米綜合業務中的甘蔗，這是最重要的部分是稻米的總產量。因此，生產稻米對我們來說很重要，我們在稻米總產量方面正在取得一些成長。因此，我們將在這次整合中繼續看到這筆資本支出。再說一遍，自遺傳以來，整個稻米業務鏈中的小型協同項目仍然是最終消費者，我們總是在那裡找到需要繼續改進的小型項目。

Then dairy -- the whole dairy system and the processing that is doing pretty well and this opportunity in the domestic market and some benefits that Argentina is having today in this particular business of dairy, we can also see some improvements on small projects that continue to happen and continue to increase efficiency. All of them with very attractive returns. And when I talk about very attractive returns, I'm talking about above 20% unlevered IRR is what we are getting there in all these projects.

然後是乳製品——整個乳製品系統和加工做得相當好，國內市場的機會以及阿根廷今天在乳製品這一特殊業務中所獲得的一些好處，我們還可以看到小型項目的一些改進，這些改進持續發生並持續提高效率。所有這些都具有非常有吸引力的回報。當我談到非常有吸引力的回報時，我指的是我們在所有這些項目中獲得的無槓桿內部收益率超過 20%。

So that's a quick summary on how we are seeing this total CapEx and capital allocation (inaudible).

這是我們如何看待總資本支出和資本分配的快速總結（聽不清楚）。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Larissa Pérez with Itau.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Itau 的 Larissa Pérez。

I actually have 2 follow-ups. The first 1 would be for Renato. And it's a follow-up on Henrique's question. I was just wondering, it was mentioning that the company expects to increase sugarcane crushing this year, and you were just explaining how this could have a material impact on unitary costs given the fixed cost dilution effect, so I was wondering if you could please give us some color on the size of this increase in crushing expected for this harvest and/or in the drop in unit costs expected for this harvest, that would be my first question for Renato.

我實際上有兩個後續行動。第一個 1 是給雷納託的。這是恩里克問題的後續。我只是想知道，它提到該公司預計今年會增加甘蔗壓榨量，而您只是在解釋考慮到固定成本稀釋效應，這如何對單一成本產生重大影響，所以我想知道您是否可以給我們對本次收穫預期的壓榨增加規模和/或預期本次收穫的單位成本下降進行了一些說明，這將是我向雷納托提出的第一個問題。

And my second question is for Mariano, and it's actually a follow-up on Isa's question. You just mentioned that you have the policy to distribute at least 40% of your adjusted free cash flow from operations. I was just wondering under which circumstances would the company consider increasing distribution even further because, as you said, 40% is just the minimum. So I was wondering what could make Adecoagro distribute even more than 40%. Those will be my 2 questions.

我的第二個問題是問馬裡亞諾的，它實際上是伊薩問題的後續問題。您剛才提到，您有政策分配至少 40% 的調整後營運自由現金流。我只是想知道在什麼情況下公司會考慮進一步增加分配，因為正如你所說，40%只是最低限度。所以我想知道什麼能讓 Adecoagro 分配超過 40% 的股份。這是我的兩個問題。

Thank you, Larissa, for your question. I will ask Renato to go on more details on this crushing, and then I will take the other one.

謝謝拉里薩的提問。我會請雷納托繼續詳細介紹這起粉碎事件，然後我將討論另一項。

Larissa, thanks for your question. So as it was mentioned, we have been investing in our sugarcane fields, growing our sugarcane fields. So that's the reason we have a record crushing in the first quarter. We initially thought that we are going to have a yield higher this year than last year. But since the weather is a bit drier now, we think the yields are going to be quite in line with the yields that we had last year. But due to the increase in the area, we think that we are going to crush more cane than last year. I would say around 5% -- the crush is going to be 5% higher than last year. And of course, it is going to help our costs, so we think that we have potential to decrease our cost between 5% and 10% as a consequence of the volume because of the dilution and also because there are some -- maybe some gains in price of sugarcane. Consecana is a little bit down, even price of alternative crops in the region are down. So maybe leasing rates is going to be lower. So we think that 5% to 10% decrease.

拉里薩，謝謝你的問題。正如所提到的，我們一直在投資我們的乙醇田，種植我們的甘蔗田。這就是我們在第一季創紀錄的原因。我們最初認為今年的收益率會高於去年。但由於現在天氣有點乾燥，我們認為產量將與去年的產量相當。但由於面積增加，我們認為我們將比去年壓碎更多的甘蔗。我想說大約 5%——擠壓量將比去年高 5%。當然，這將有助於我們的成本，因此我們認為，由於數量的減少，我們有可能將成本降低 5% 到 10%，因為稀釋，而且還因為有一些——也許是一些收益在甘蔗的價格上。康塞卡納的價格略有下降，甚至該地區替代作物的價格也有所下降。所以也許租賃率會更低。所以我們認為會減少 5% 到 10%。

Thank you, Renato. Larissa and to be more specific on what we've been talking about capital allocation, and you mentioned about under what circumstances we can increase the distribution policy. You can see that in today's circumstances, if we continue to do the same that we've been doing, we would, of course, surpass the distribution policy and distribute through buybacks more than what we -- what the policy requires. That is a very quick answer. But we still need to go the full year ahead, the year has unknown things that -- on weather, on prices. So we still don't know what our EBITDA is going to be this year. So of course, we also take into account that and how we are projecting our annual EBITDA that today we are projecting, as I mentioned at the beginning, very much in line with what we had last year. And we are also following very closely all our investment projects.

謝謝你，雷納托。拉里薩，更具體地說，我們一直在談論資本配置，您提到在什麼情況下我們可以增加分配政策。你可以看到，在今天的情況下，如果我們繼續做我們一直在做的事情，我們當然會超越分配政策，並透過回購來分配比我們政策要求的更多的東西。這是一個非常快速的答案。但我們仍然需要展望未來的一整年，這一年有一些未知的事情——天氣、價格。所以我們還是不知道今年的 EBITDA 是多少。當然，我們也會考慮到這一點，以及我們如何預測年度 EBITDA，正如我在開頭提到的，今天我們預測的年度 EBITDA 與我們去年的情況非常一致。我們也非常密切地關注我們所有的投資項目。

We have room for the both of them and the debt levels that you've seen today and as we've been decreasing in the last years, the level of debt that we have, we are beyond. So we still have room for doing both of them. But that's something that we make decisions as we go through the year.

我們有足夠的空間容納他們和你們今天看到的債務水平，隨著我們在過去幾年中一直在下降，我們的債務水平已經超出了。所以我們還有空間去做這兩件事。但這是我們在這一年中所做的決定。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Julia Rizzo with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Julia Rizzo。

Renato, I would love if you could share your view. It's -- now that sugar prices went down and the discount from ethanol to sugar have narrowed significantly, at what point it's -- you decide to switch, it's no longer more interesting for you to stay max sugar and start switching your production to produce ethanol instead of sugar. And if that changed also your outlook, your scenario for expecting higher ethanol prices likely on second half of the year?

雷納托，如果您能分享您的觀點，我會很高興。現在糖價下降了，從乙醇到糖的折扣已經顯著縮小，在什麼時候你決定轉換，對你來說保持最大糖並開始將你的生產轉向生產乙醇不再更有趣而不是糖。如果這也改變了您的前景，您預計今年下半年乙醇價格可能會上漲嗎？

Julia, thanks for your question. As I mentioned, we are optimistic about the ethanol perspective in the short term, especially because of the supply that is lower as it was mentioned, the demand is very, very high. So today, in Mato Grosso do Sul, our ethanol equivalent -- hydrous ethanol equivalent is $0.17 per pound, so we are still a bit below sugar [parity], but we think with the scenario of ethanol is going to keep improving and we are going to reach the $0.18, $0.19 per pound at some point in the future, and then we will change the mix to produce as much as ethanol as possible in Mato Grosso do Sul. So this 57% that we have hedged in sugar is considering a max sugar scenario, so if you consider that we are going to change the mix, this 57% is more than that. So I think that's going to be the case in the near future.

朱莉婭，謝謝你的提問。正如我所提到的，我們對短期內乙醇的前景持樂觀態度，特別是因為正如所提到的，供應量較低，但需求卻非常非常高。因此，今天，在南馬托格羅索州，我們的乙醇當量——含水乙醇當量為每磅0.17 美元，因此我們仍然略低於糖[平價]，但我們認為乙醇的情況將不斷改善，我們正在未來某個時候將達到每磅 0.18 美元、0.19 美元，然後我們將改變結構，在南馬托格羅索州生產盡可能多的乙醇。因此，我們用糖對沖的這 57% 是在考慮最高糖的情況，所以如果你認為我們要改變組合，那麼這 57% 就不止這個數字。所以我認為在不久的將來情況也會如此。

But when do you think the industry will start to rethink the max sugar. What is the minimum discount for ethanol or for the (inaudible)?

但您認為該行業何時會開始重新考慮最高糖含量。乙醇或乙醇的最低折扣是多少（聽不清楚）？

Since you are in Mato Grosso do Sul, when we have the ICMS tax rebate. We are the first ones to switch mix, so the rest of the industry has 200 points of difference. So today, we are at 17%. The rest of the industry is close to 15%.

由於您在南馬托格羅索州，當我們有 ICMS 退稅時。我們是最先改變組合的，所以產業中的其他公司有200點的差異。所以今天，我們的比例是 17%。其餘行業接近15%。

This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

問答部分到此結束。現在，我想請博斯先生發表結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for participating on our call and hope to see you in our upcoming meetings.

感謝大家參與我們的電話會議，並希望在我們即將舉行的會議中見到您。

Thank you. This does conclude today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.

謝謝。今天的演講到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，祝您度過愉快的一天。