Adecoagro SA (AGRO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's third quarter 2025 results conference call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP; and Ms. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，感謝你們的耐心等待。在此，我們歡迎各位參加 Adecoagro 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有：執行長 Mariano Bosch 先生；財務長 Emilio Gnecco 先生；糖、乙醇和能源副總裁 Renato Junqueira Pereira 先生；以及投資者關係主管 Victoria Cabello 女士。我們謹此通知您，本次活動正在錄影。（操作說明）

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future.

在繼續之前，我想說明的是，前瞻性陳述是基於 Adecoagro 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前可獲得的資訊。它們涉及風險、不確定性和假設，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於未來可能發生或不會發生的情況。

Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

投資者應了解，總體經濟狀況、行業狀況和其他經營因素也可能影響 Adecoagro 的未來業績，並可能導致實際業績與此類前瞻性聲明中表達的業績存在重大差異。

Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

現在，我將把會議交給執行長馬裡亞諾·博世先生。博世先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2025 third quarter results conference. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the quarter reached $115 million, while year-to-date, it amounted to $206 million. In Brazil, we achieved an all-time quarterly crushing record of 4.9 million tons and even produced 40% more ethanol than the previous year as we switched our production maximization, given premium commanded over sugar.

早安，感謝各位參加 Adecoagro 2025 年第三季業績發表會。本季綜合調整後 EBITDA 達 1.15 億美元，而年初至今已達 2.06 億美元。在巴西，我們實現了季度壓榨量創歷史新高，達到 490 萬噸，並且由於乙醇的溢價高於糖，我們調整了生產策略，使乙醇產量比上一年增加了 40%。

Now, cane productivity has improved as we completed the harvest of all the frost-impacted cane, thus with lower productivity. Going forward and assuming normal weather, crushing volume should improve as we have greater cane availability, leading to a greater cost dilution. In Argentina and Uruguay, the challenging price-cost scenario continues to pressure results across our businesses.

現在，隨著我們完成了所有受霜凍影響的甘蔗的收割，甘蔗產量有所提高，儘管之前的產量較低。展望未來，假設天氣正常，隨著甘蔗供應量的增加，壓榨量應該會提高，從而降低成本。在阿根廷和烏拉圭，嚴峻的價格成本情勢持續為我們的各項業務帶來業績壓力。

In crops, we are undergoing planting activities for the new campaign, reducing approximately 30% our leased area and adjusting our crops mix to improve margins. In rice, export price of the long rice are still looking for a support level, given the greater supply. Therefore, our decision is to reduce the long grain rice and to increase the mix of varieties.

在農作物方面，我們正在為新一季的種植活動做準備，租賃面積減少了約 30%，並調整了作物組合以提高利潤率。由於供應量較大，米出口價格仍在尋找支撐位。因此，我們決定減少長粒米的種植，增加品種的混合種植。

In dairy, cow productivity and processing volumes have achieved a new record. We continue to prioritize the domestic market with the production of fluid milk and value-added products. In early September, we signed an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in Profertil, the largest producer of granular urea in South America. Profertil is one of the lowest-cost producers within this industry, and it is strategically located in a net importing region with access to competitively priced natural gas.

在乳牛養殖方面，乳牛的產乳量和加工量均創下新紀錄。我們持續優先發展國內市場，生產液態奶和加值產品。9月初，我們簽署了一項協議，收購南美洲最大的顆粒尿素生產商Profertil 50%的股份。Profertil 是業內成本最低的生產商之一，其戰略位置優越，位於淨進口地區，可以獲得價格具有競爭力的天然氣。

It is run by a highly experienced management team and has consistently generated cash through the years. YPF, Argentina's largest oil and gas producer, owns 50% stake. And together with ACA, we will be jointly acquiring the balance. Closing is expected before year-end and subject to YPF's 90-day right of refusal. To conclude, I would like to thank all the people in Adecoagro.

公司由經驗豐富的管理團隊經營，多年來持續創造現金流。阿根廷最大的石油和天然氣生產商YPF持有50%的股份。我們將與ACA共同收購剩餘部分。預計交易將在年底前完成，但YPF擁有90天的優先購買權。最後，我要感謝Adecoagro的所有員工。

I know that this year has been one of the toughest, but we need to remain focused on efficiency and on being the lowest-cost producer to overcome this challenging context. Thanks to our shareholders for their support.

我知道今年是最艱難的一年之一，但我們需要繼續專注於提高效率，成為成本最低的生產商，以克服這種充滿挑戰的環境。感謝各位股東的支持。

And now, I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the quarter.

現在，我將讓艾米利歐為大家講解本季的數據。

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results. Gross sales totaled $323 million during the third quarter, making a 29% year-over-year decline due to lower volumes and prices across our different operations. Despite this, adjusted EBITDA improved versus the prior year to $115 million on greater results from our sugar, ethanol and energy business.

謝謝你，馬裡亞諾。各位早安。請翻到第 4 頁，查看我們的合併財務表現摘要。第三季總銷售額為 3.23 億美元，年減 29%，原因是我們各個業務的銷售和價格均有所下降。儘管如此，由於糖、乙醇和能源業務的業績提升，調整後的 EBITDA 較上年同期成長至 1.15 億美元。

On a year-to-date basis, sales and adjusted EBITDA stood at $1 billion and $206 million, respectively. Lower consolidated results were mainly explained by a combination of lower global prices and higher costs in US dollar terms. Now, please turn to slide 5. Regarding our production figures, on the bottom-right chart, we can see that crushing volume in our sugar, ethanol and energy business was 4% lower compared to the same period of last year.

今年迄今為止，銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 分別為 10 億美元和 2.06 億美元。合併業績下滑主要是因為全球價格走低和以美元計價的成本上升。現在，請翻到第5張投影片。關於我們的生產數據，從右下角的圖表中我們可以看到，我們糖、乙醇和能源業務的壓榨量比去年同期下降了 4%。

The year-over-year gap reported in the previous release has decreased by the crushing record achieved during the third quarter, which we will get into more detail shortly. In the case of the farming business, total production saw a 13% year-over-year increase, explained by higher planted area, as well as record productivity in our rice operations.

上一季報告的年比差距已經縮小，這得益於第三季取得的驚人成績，我們稍後將詳細介紹。就農業業務而言，總產量年增 13%，這主要得益於種植面積的增加以及水稻生產創紀錄的生產力。

Let's move to slide 7 with the operational performance of our sugar, ethanol and energy business. During the period, we achieved a new quarterly crushing record of 4.9 million tons and a 20% year-over-year increase. This was explained by the acceleration of our harvesting pace, which in turn enabled us to crush all the sugarcane that was hit by the frost event experienced by the end of June.

接下來我們來看第 7 張投影片，了解我們糖業、乙醇和能源業務的營運表現。在此期間，我們實現了季度壓榨量490萬噸的新紀錄，年增20%。這可以用我們加快收割速度來解釋，這反過來又使我們能夠壓榨所有在六月底遭受霜凍襲擊的甘蔗。

Our average yield and TRS content declined compared to the previous year, explained by the impact of the frost in the sugarcane harvested. On a year-to-date basis, we have already milled 9.8 million tons of sugarcane. Despite the strong quarterly performance, we concluded the period with an accumulated crushing slightly below the previous year due to the combination of dry weather, followed by rainy days experienced during the first half of the year, which consequently slowed our crushing pace.

由於收穫的甘蔗受到霜凍的影響，我們的平均產量和 TRS 含量與前一年相比有所下降。今年迄今，我們已經加工了980萬噸甘蔗。儘管季度業績強勁，但由於上半年天氣乾燥，隨後又出現雨天，導致壓榨速度放緩，因此本季累計壓榨量略低於上年同期。

Despite this, we still foresee an annual crushing volume in line with the previous year, assuming normal weather conditions until the end of the year. In terms of mix, we switched our strategy to maximize ethanol production during the third quarter, given the better margins compared to sugar. We reached 58% ethanol mix compared to 45% the previous year when we were maximizing sugar.

儘管如此，我們預計，在年底前天氣狀況正常的情況下，全年壓榨量將與前一年持平。在產品組合方面，鑑於乙醇的利潤率高於糖，我們在第三季調整了策略，最大限度地提高乙醇產量。我們實現了 58% 的乙醇混合比例，而前一年為了最大限度地利用糖，乙醇混合比例為 45%。

This clearly reflects the high level of flexibility of our mills as we maximized sugar production throughout the first semester and then switched to ethanol due to its attractive premium as lower sugar prices started to decline. Let's please turn to slide 8, where we describe sales conducted throughout the period. Net sales amounted to $131 million during the quarter, while year-to-date, they reached $433 million.

這清楚地反映了我們糖廠的高度靈活性，因為我們在第一學期最大限度地提高了糖的產量，然後隨著糖價開始下跌，由於乙醇具有有吸引力的溢價，我們轉而生產乙醇。請翻到第 8 張投影片，其中描述了該時期進行的銷售情況。本季淨銷售額為 1.31 億美元，而今年迄今為止，淨銷售額已達 4.33 億美元。

Despite the increase in ethanol production, lower sales during the quarter were explained by a decline in volumes sold. Throughout the period, we strategically conducted our sales to profit from better prices. For the last year, we had our tanks full and had to sell our daily production. Ethanol sales were 8% higher year-to-date, thanks to our commercial strategy to sell our 2024 inventories once prices recovered.

儘管乙醇產量有所增加，但本季銷量下降的原因是銷售量下降。在此期間，我們採取了策略性銷售策略，以期從更優惠的價格中獲利。過去一年，我們的儲罐都滿了，不得不把每天的產量賣掉。由於我們採取了在價格回升後出售 2024 年庫存的商業策略，今年迄今乙醇銷量成長了 8%。

Regarding sugar, the combination of lower prices and the decline in production, given the lower crushing and switch in mix, were the main drivers towards the decline in sales. In the case of energy, the increase in sales was driven by higher selling prices year-over-year as we comply with our long-term contracts, as well as profit from the peaks in spot prices.

就糖而言，價格走低和產量下降（由於壓榨量減少和作物種類改變）是導致銷售下降的主要原因。就能源而言，銷售額的成長是由於我們履行長期合同，導致售價同比上漲，以及現貨價格高峰帶來的利潤。

Regarding carbon credits, we sold over 560,000 CBios at an average price of $9 per CBio, reaching $5 million in revenues. Please go to page 9, where we would like to present the financial performance of the sugar, ethanol and energy business. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $120 million during the third quarter, making a 20% year-over-year increase.

在碳信用方面，我們以每 CBio 9 美元的平均價格售出了超過 56 萬個 CBio，收入達到 500 萬美元。請翻到第 9 頁，我們將在那裡介紹糖、乙醇和能源業務的財務表現。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元，年增 20%。

This was mostly explained by year-over-year gains in the mark-to-market of our biological assets, given an improvement in yield, coupled with gains in the mark-to-market of our commodity hedge position. On an accumulated basis, adjusted EBITDA reached $218 million, 16% lower than the same period of last year. Now, we would like to move on to the farming business.

這主要是由於我們的生物資產按市值計價的同比上漲（收益率提高），以及我們的商品對沖頭寸按市值計價的上漲所致。累計調整後 EBITDA 達 2.18 億美元，比去年同期下降 16%。現在，我們想轉而從事農業生產。

Please go to slide 11. By the end of October, we concluded harvesting activities related to our 2024-'25 harvest season, reaching 1.2 million tons of agriculture produced. Now, we are in the middle of planting activities for our 2025-'26 campaign with 52% of the total area already seeded. As you may have seen, we reduced our planting plan by 22% compared to the prior season as we decided to diminish the amount of leased hectares, prioritizing the farms with higher productivity potential and therefore, maximizing the margin per hectare in each of our crops.

請翻到第11頁。到 10 月底，我們完成了 2024-2025 年收穫季的收穫活動，農產品產量達到 120 萬噸。現在，我們正在進行 2025-2026 年種植活動的中期工作，總面積的 52% 已經播種。正如您可能已經看到的，與上一季相比，我們的種植計劃減少了 22%，因為我們決定減少租賃的公頃數，優先考慮生產力潛力更高的農場，從而最大限度地提高每種作物的每公頃利潤。

In rice, the decline in planting area was driven by the challenging price scenario of the commodity as global prices continue to decline, given the worldwide oversupply. On the other hand, we are increasing our mix of premium varieties over long grain white rice to offset the lower prices from the commodity type. In the case of dairy, not only did cow productivity improved versus the first semester, but it even achieved a new record at 39.1 liters of milk per cow per day during the quarter.

水稻種植面積的下降是由於全球水稻價格持續下跌，全球供應過剩，導致水稻價格情況嚴峻。另一方面，我們正在增加優質品種長粒白米的比例，以抵消普通品種價格較低的影響。就乳牛養殖而言，不僅乳牛的生產力比上半年有所提高，而且本季每頭乳牛每天的產奶量甚至達到了 39.1 公升，創下了新紀錄。

At the industry level, we continue to maximize production of UHT milk for the domestic market, a product that offers the highest marginal contribution. On the following page 12, we present the financial performance of our Farming business. Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business totaled $1 million during the quarter, whereas year-to-date, it amounted to $19 million.

在產業層面，我們持續最大限度地提高面向國內市場的超高溫滅菌牛奶的產量，該產品可提供最高的邊際貢獻。在接下來的第 12 頁，我們將介紹我們農業業務的財務表現。本季農業業務的調整後 EBITDA 總計 100 萬美元，而今年迄今為止，該業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 1,900 萬美元。

Starting with our crops segment, lower results were explained by lower international prices and higher costs in US dollars, both of which continued to pressure margins during the period and mainly for our peanut production. In rice, the decline in adjusted EBITDA during both periods was driven by lower sales, given the outlier prices reported the previous year, coupled with higher costs in US dollar terms.

先從我們的農作物部分來看，業績下滑的原因是國際價格走低和以美元計價的成本上升，這兩方面因素在此期間持續對利潤率構成壓力，尤其對我們的花生生產造成了影響。在大米方面，兩個時期的調整後 EBITDA 下降是由於銷售額下降所致，因為上一年報告的價格異常高，再加上以美元計價的成本上升。

Lastly, adjusted EBITDA generation in our dairy business was impacted by higher costs and a mixed performance in prices despite the increase in volumes sold mainly from fluid milk for the domestic market. Please turn to page 14 with a broader view of our CapEx program. Expansion CapEx, excluding inorganic growth, represented $32 million during the quarter and $85 million on an accumulated basis.

最後，儘管國內市場液態乳的銷售量有所成長，但由於成本上升和價格表現不一，我們乳製品業務的調整後 EBITDA 產生受到影響。請翻到第 14 頁，了解我們資本支出計畫的更全面情況。本季擴張資本支出（不包括非內生成長）為 3,200 萬美元，累計 8,500 萬美元。

In Brazil, expansion CapEx was mostly allocated to increasing our sugarcane plantation size and the expansion of our biomethane production. In our farming business, our main CapEx program consisted of the acquisition of agricultural machinery for our rice operations, together with marginal investments in our Morteros milk processing facility to expand our product portfolio.

在巴西，擴張資本支出主要用於擴大甘蔗種植面積和擴大生物甲烷生產。在我們的農業業務中，我們的主要資本支出計劃包括為水稻種植購買農業機械，以及對 Morteros 牛奶加工廠進行少量投資，以擴大我們的產品組合。

Now, please turn to slide 15, where we would like to make a reference to the acquisition of Profertil. On September 8, we announced the market that we signed an agreement to acquire Nutrien's 50% interest in Profertil, the largest producer of granular urea in South America, through an 80-20 partnership with Asociacion de Cooperativas Argentinas.

現在，請翻到第 15 張投影片，我們想在那裡提及對 Profertil 的收購。9 月 8 日，我們向市場宣布，我們已簽署協議，透過與阿根廷合作社協會 (Asociacion de Cooperativas Argentinas) 建立 80-20 的合作關係，收購 Nutrien 在南美洲最大的顆粒尿素生產商 Profertil 的 50% 股份。

The transaction was valued at approximately $600 million, out of which $96 million advanced payment was made against the sign-off. The remaining 50% stake of Profertil is owned by YPF, Argentina's largest producer of oil and gas, who, as of this date, continues to hold the right of first refusal to purchase Nutrien's equity on the same terms and conditions. This right expires at the beginning of December.

該交易價值約 6 億美元，其中 9,600 萬美元為簽署協議時支付的預付款。Profertil 剩餘的 50% 股份由阿根廷最大的石油和天然氣生產商 YPF 持有，截至目前，YPF 仍然擁有以相同條款和條件優先購買 Nutrien 股權的權利。這項權利將於12月初到期。

Once and if the closing conditions are met, we will provide more details. As Mariano commented earlier, we firmly believe that by acquiring this state-of-the-art asset, we will be reducing the volatility of our results, while diversifying operations across other value chains within the agro-industrial space, where we have shown a well-proven track record.

一旦成交條件滿足，我們將提供更多細節。正如馬裡亞諾先前評論的那樣，我們堅信，透過收購這項最先進的資產，我們將降低業績的波動性，同時將業務多元化拓展到農業工業領域的其他價值鏈，而我們在該領域已經展現出了良好的業績記錄。

On the following slide, we describe our debt evolution. Net debt amounted to $872 million, making a 35% year-over-year increase due to the lower consolidated results, together with the $96 million advance payment made for Profertil acquisition. Consequently, our net leverage ratio increased to 2.8 times compared to the 1.5 times reported in the same period of last year.

下一張投影片，我們將介紹我們的債務演變。由於合併業績下降，加上為收購 Profertil 支付的 9,600 萬美元預付款，淨債務達到 8.72 億美元，年增 35%。因此，我們的淨槓桿率從去年同期報告的 1.5 倍上升至 2.8 倍。

Going forward and once we conclude the acquisition, we intend to reduce our leverage ratio as we implement cost-saving initiatives across all our operations, together with a revision of our capital allocation strategy and expected operational results. Despite increase in leverage, our liquidity ratio stood at 3.2 times, showing the company's full capacity to repay short-term debt with its cash balance.

展望未來，一旦完成收購，我們將透過在所有業務中實施成本節約措施，以及修訂資本配置策略和預期營運結果，來降低槓桿率。儘管槓桿率上升，但我們的流動比率仍為 3.2 倍，這表明公司完全有能力用其現金餘額償還短期債務。

Let's now turn to page 17, where we would like to present our shareholder distribution program. 2025 shareholder distribution amounted to $45 million. We repurchased $10 million in shares under our buyback program, equal to 1.1% of the company's equity. In addition, $35 million were distributed via cash dividends with the last installment being paid in a few days on November 19, representing approximately an annual dividend per share of $0.35 and a dividend yield of 4%. With the second final dividend payment, the company concludes its distribution policy for the year 2025.

現在請翻到第17頁，我們將在此介紹我們的股東分紅計畫。 2025年的股東分紅總額為4,500萬美元。我們根據股票回購計畫回購了價值 1,000 萬美元的股票，相當於公司股權的 1.1%。此外，該公司還透過現金股息分配了 3,500 萬美元，最後一筆股息於幾天後的 11 月 19 日支付，相當於每股年股息約 0.35 美元，股息收益率為 4%。隨著第二次末期股息支付，該公司完成了 2025 年的股息分配政策。

Thank you very much for your time. We will now open the call to questions.

非常感謝您抽出時間。現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Matheus Enfeldt, UBS.

（操作員說明）Matheus Enfeldt，瑞銀集團。

I want to think a bit about the upcoming year and the upcoming crops. I mean, your crushing volumes, despite of the challenges in weather, were relatively okay. And I was just wondering how is the outlook for 2026, if we could still see some crushing growth in sugar and ethanol and sort of get closer to the 40 million tons capacity and how you see cost advancing for the upcoming crop as well?

我想稍微思考一下即將到來的一年和即將到來的作物。我的意思是，儘管天氣條件惡劣，但你們的壓軸作品數量還算可以。我想知道2026年的前景如何，我們是否還能看到糖和乙醇的強勁增長，並接近4000萬噸的產能目標，以及您如何看待即將到來的作物的成本變化？

And then, my second question is, when you think about CapEx, particularly for next year, but I think for the next one- to two-years, which we might see some pressure in earnings, given the weak pricing environment that we are seeing right now. You were doing around BRL250 million, BRL300 million of CapEx per year. Outside of M&A, which I assume there's still some installments for Profertil, what's the level that we could see moving forward for next year given the compression in cash generation due to prices? Those are my two questions.

那麼，我的第二個問題是，當您考慮資本支出時，特別是明年，但我認為在未來一到兩年內，鑑於我們目前看到的疲軟定價環境，我們可能會看到盈利面臨一些壓力。你們每年的資本支出大約在 2.5 億至 3 億雷亞爾之間。除了併購之外（我假設 Profertil 還有一些分期付款），考慮到價格上漲導致現金流壓縮，我們明年可能會看到怎樣的發展水平？這就是我的兩個問題。

Okay. Thank you, Matheus, for your question. I'm going to answer the CapEx, and then Renato will answer regarding our crushing expectations and costs there going forward. On the year CapEx, as we are mentioning, we are having this more compressed EBITDA and EBITDA margins. And so, we are revising all the different CapEx in each one of the segments that we have today and also taking into account with the potential acquisition of Profertil, we are reducing this at the maximum level.

好的。謝謝你的提問，馬修斯。我將回答有關資本支出的問題，然後 Renato 將回答我們未來在該領域的預期和成本問題。正如我們之前提到的，本年度的資本支出將導致 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率更加壓縮。因此，我們正在修訂目前各個業務板塊的所有不同資本支出，同時考慮到可能收購 Profertil，我們正在將其削減到最大程度。

So we are only doing the organic CapEx that really, really makes sense and has a lot of synergies. And so, you can clearly expect a relevant reduction in terms of the growth CapEx coming in each one of our four business segments. That's for 2026. And then, Renato, can you take the question regarding the crushing expectations and costs?

所以我們只進行真正有意義且能產生許多綜效的有機資本支出。因此，可以預見，我們四個業務部門的成長資本支出將出現相應的減少。那是針對2026年的。那麼，雷納托，你能回答一下關於過高的期望和成本的問題嗎？

Okay. So regarding the crushing, I think it was mentioned here that we had an excellent third quarter in terms of crushing. So we finished all the low-yield sugarcane, especially those canes that was -- were affected by the frost. So we pushed the cane that otherwise would be crushed in the third quarter for the last quarter with much better yields.

好的。關於壓碎作業，我想這裡提到過，我們在第三季壓碎作業表現出色。所以我們收割了所有低產量的甘蔗，特別是那些受霜凍影響的甘蔗。因此，我們將原本要在第三季榨汁的甘蔗提前到第四季榨汁，獲得了更高的產量。

So the yields for the final quarter should be much higher than the average of this year. And it puts us in an excellent condition for next year, especially in the first quarter that we're going to have an intensive first quarter in terms of crushing and of course, take advantage of price of ethanol that should be high at this moment.

因此，第四季的收益率應該會遠高於今年的平均值。這讓我們為明年做好了充分的準備，尤其是在第一季度，我們將迎來一個壓榨量很大的第一季度，當然，我們也要利用目前乙醇價格較高的優勢。

And we have a potential to crush during this year, I would say, 5% to 6% more than we are going to crush in this year here. So '26, 5% to 6% more than '25, thanks to the conditions of the sugarcane. So we don't think that we're going to have a problem of sugarcane availability. The crushing, of course, depends on weather conditions. And so, it's not only the availability of cane, but the availability of cane, we think we are fine.

而我們今年有可能實現比今年實際實現的更高的目標，我認為是高出 5% 到 6%。所以，由於甘蔗的生長條件，2026 年的產量比 2025 年高出 5% 到 6%。所以我們認為不會有甘蔗供應問題。當然，壓榨程度取決於天氣狀況。所以，不只是甘蔗的供應問題，而是甘蔗供應問題，我們認為我們沒問題。

So regarding the costs, we expect a reduction of cost for next year, I would say, a reduction between 15% and 20% of the cost. This is mainly a consequence of the volume, both the crushing volume and the yields that should be higher next year, diluting our fixed costs and also the Consecana price that is lower, so the raw material is lower for next year.

所以關於成本方面，我們預計明年的成本會降低，我認為會降低 15% 到 20%。這主要是由於產量（包括壓榨量和生產率）明年應該會更高，從而降低我們的固定成本，以及 Consecana 價格較低，因此明年的原材料成本也會降低。

And also, we have been working in a lot of efficiencies, both in the agriculture and the industrial operation. So we think that we are going to decrease our costs because of those efficiencies that we are getting.

此外，我們在農業和工業運作方面也一直在努力提高效率。因此，我們認為由於我們獲得的這些效率提升，我們的成本將會降低。

Isabella Simonato, Bank of America.

伊莎貝拉·西蒙納托，美國銀行。

I have two. First of all, you mentioned in the press release, right, that you guys are going to pursue a couple of actions to reduce leverage, right? I understand that, as you just said, reducing CapEx is one of them. But if you could give a little bit more color on what other actions are you thinking about or what your expectation or eventually a target, right, to be reached in 2026, I think that would be quite helpful.

我有兩個。首先，你們在新聞稿中提到，你們將採取一些措施來降低槓桿作用，對吧？我明白，正如你剛才所說，減少資本支出是其中之一。但是，如果您能更詳細地說明您正在考慮的其他行動，或者您對 2026 年的期望或最終目標是什麼，我認為這將非常有幫助。

And the other question is regarding the decision, right, to significantly reduce your area of crops in the next season. I think it's the first time that you take such a drastic reduction, right? And just if you could give us a little bit more -- sorry, I think I got muted. So the rationale to go with this decision and eventually the economics, right, that are driving it, I think, would be interesting.

另一個問題是關於您是否決定在下一季大幅減少作物種植面積。我想這是你第一次大幅減薪，對吧？如果您能再多說一點就好了——抱歉，我好像被靜音了。因此，做出這項決定的理由，以及最終推動這項決定的經濟因素，我認為，將會很有趣。

Isabella, thank you very much for your question. I'm going to take the second -- your second question and then ask Emilio to answer the first question regarding the debt level. So on explaining the reduction in the crop area, I think it's important there that since we started this new campaign that starts in August, where we start planting, and the old campaign, the numbers that we are reporting today that are so negative in the crop business is what we've been harvesting since April until September.

伊莎貝拉，非常感謝你的提問。我先回答你的第二個問題，然後再請艾米利歐回答關於債務水準的第一個問題。因此，在解釋作物種植面積減少的原因時，我認為重要的是，自從我們開始從 8 月開始的新種植季以來，以及之前的種植季，我們今天報告的作物行業如此糟糕的數據，是我們從 4 月到 9 月的收穫數據。

So now, we are starting this new campaign. In this new campaign is where we started reducing the cost of leasing. So cost of leasing is one of the main costs in crop production in general, and that's what we are reducing. And because of reducing the cost of leasing, many people didn't want to lease to us. So we've reduced the area.

所以現在，我們正式啟動這項新的活動。正是在這項新活動中，我們開始降低租賃成本。因此，租賃成本是作物生產的主要成本之一，而這正是我們要降低的成本。由於租賃成本降低，許多人都不願意把房子租給我們。所以我們縮小了面積。

On top of that, we are only securing the farms where we have high productivity levels and the level of return that we are asking and the level of risk that we are running are more important that we are asking more returns for each one of the farms. So the consequence is that we are reducing this. On top of that, we are reducing the structure to manage these farms.

除此之外，我們只投資那些生產力高的農場，我們要求的收益水平和我們承擔的風險水平比我們要求每個農場獲得更高的收益更重要。因此，其結果就是我們正在減少這種情況。除此之外，我們也正在縮減管理這些農場的機構規模。

And on top of that, we are reducing the cost of planting, the cost of all what we are doing at the farm level. That is in the crop business, including the peanuts that is where we have the highest decrease in prices. Then, on rice that is part of our crops, we are also reducing area. We are reducing like 25% or 30% the long grain production of rice, but we are increasing the special products of rice.

除此之外，我們也正在降低種植成本，降低我們在農場層級所做的一切成本。農作物業，包括花生在內，價格跌幅最大。然後，對於我們種植的作物之一——水稻，我們也在減少種植面積。我們正在減少大約 25% 或 30% 的長粒米產量，但我們正在增加特種米的產量。

As we've been telling you some years ago, we have been developing special varieties that some of our clients need, and that is how we've been able to maintain certain level of prices. Just for you to have an idea, the reduction in the price of long grain rice was around 50% comparing to the previous year. So the 50% reduction in the price of rice is very relevant, and that's why we are adjusting making all this adjustment, including reducing part of the total area.

正如我們幾年前告訴你們的那樣，我們一直在開發一些客戶需要的特殊品種，這也是我們能夠維持一定價格水平的原因。為了讓您對價格走勢有個概念，長粒米的價格與前一年相比下降了約 50%。因此，米價格降低 50% 非常重要，這也是我們進行所有這些調整的原因，包括減少部分總面積。

That's the reason why we are doing it. And because of this is that we are more optimistic in terms of the levels of EBITDA that we can expect for next year comparing to this particular level to this year. All this assuming today's prices of all the different commodities that we are having today. We are not assuming to go back to the other levels.

這就是我們這樣做的原因。正因如此，我們對明年預期 EBITDA 水準的預期更為樂觀，與今年的水準相比，預期值要高。以上所有假設均基於目前各種商品的現行價格。我們並不打算回到之前的水平。

That's what we are -- where we are working, and that's why the consequence is the reduction of the area. So thank you for this part of your question. Then, Emilio can get into more details on our debt levels and what are we thinking about it.

這就是我們——我們工作的地方，這就是為什麼其結果是面積縮小。感謝您提出這個問題。然後，埃米利奧可以更詳細地介紹我們的債務水平以及我們對此的看法。

Yes. Sure. Thank you, Isabella. Thank you, Mariano. Well, let me start. If we take a look back at our history, you can see that we have been very disciplined with our debt ratios. And this is not an exception. We always said that if we encounter an opportunity that today we have in hand, we would incur an additional debt, and rest assured that this opportunity would contribute to our results in the coming years and therefore, become accretive to our shareholders.

是的。當然。謝謝你，伊莎貝拉。謝謝你，馬裡亞諾。那我就先開始了。回顧我們的歷史，可以看出我們在債務比率方面一直非常自律。而這並非個案。我們一直都說，如果我們遇到像今天這樣的機會，我們會承擔額外的債務，但請放心，這個機會將在未來幾年為我們帶來業績成長，從而為我們的股東創造收益。

And although we would finish the year with debt levels above 2 times, 2.5 times, this debt is very well structured in the long term with an average life of 4.5 years and also at very competitive prices. Now, at the same time that we do this, we are revising all our capital expenditures, and namely, our distribution policy, we're discussing that for the coming years within management and our Board.

儘管到年底我們的債務水準將超過本益比的 2 倍、2.5 倍，但從長遠來看，這些債務的結構非常合理，平均期限為 4.5 年，而且價格也極具競爭力。現在，同時，我們正在修訂所有資本支出，特別是我們的分配政策，我們正在管理層和董事會內部討論未來幾年的分配政策。

The CapEx programs, as we said in the previous question, we are revising all the CapEx programs for each of our different businesses that will definitely -- is expected to be significantly lower in the next years. And as part of a specific plan, we started on the implementation of additional cost savings and additional enhancements in each of our businesses.

正如我們在上一個問題中提到的，我們正在修訂各個業務部門的所有資本支出計劃，預計未來幾年這些計劃的支出將大幅降低。作為一項具體計畫的一部分，我們開始在旗下所有業務部門實施額外的成本節約和改進措施。

And last but not least, and this is something that has been very vocal in our previous calls, we are having conversations with our controlling shareholder exploring potential capitalization structures in the company. All of that, of course, will contribute to bring down, in the coming years, the net debt ratios of the company.

最後但同樣重要的是，這也是我們在先前的電話會議中多次強調的，我們正在與控股股東進行對話，探討公司潛在的資本結構。當然，所有這些因素都將有助於在未來幾年內降低公司的淨負債比率。

No, that's very clear. Just a quick follow-up, Mariano. As you mentioned, right, you are reducing mainly leased area to save costs. But how that shape you for 2027? I mean, how easy is for you to plant more again in 2027? How that changed planted area in the midterm?

不，這一點很清楚。馬裡亞諾，還有一個後續問題。正如你所說，你們主要是透過減少租賃面積來節省成本。但這會如何影響你迎接 2027 年的挑戰呢？我的意思是，到了 2027 年，你再種更多東西有多容易？中期種植面積發生了哪些變化？

I think there is no problem there. This is a market where you can decrease or increase from 1 year to the other. For us, the key is the efficiency and the return. So that's our focus. And the area is a consequence on the return or the return that we are asking, the return that we are willing to have. So we don't see any problem on growing again in terms of the leased area.

我認為這方面沒有問題。這是一個價格每年都可能上漲也可能下跌的市場。對我們來說，關鍵在於效率和回報。這就是我們的重點。而這區域是我們所要求的回報，是我們願意獲得的回報所帶來的結果。因此，就租賃面積而言，我們認為再次擴張不會有任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Julia Rizzo, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）茱莉亞·里佐，摩根士丹利。

Can I explore a little bit more Profertil acquisition? You still have some debt to take. I would like to understand what are the rates and how you expect that to be in terms of financing, time to pay, average cost. Also, in your best guess or in the last years, how much Profertil was able to deliver or distribute in terms of dividends but that would be the base case for 2026 distribution for Adecoagro coming from Profertil if the M&A gets concluded?

我可以進一步了解Profertil的取得方式嗎？你還有一些債務需要償還。我想了解利率是多少，以及您在融資、付款時間和平均成本方面的預期情況。另外，根據您最佳的估計或過去幾年的情況，Profertil 能夠交付或分配多少股息？如果併購完成，這將是 Adecoagro 2026 年從 Profertil 獲得的分配的基本情況。

Julia, thank you very much for your question. On Profertil, in general terms, as we explained in the specific call that we did talking about this, we are very enthusiastic. We think this is a very attractive deal, and this is very accretive to what we have today. So we are very enthusiastic and keen to be able to close it by mid-December, as we just said. For that closing, it's all financed.

朱莉婭，非常感謝你的提問。總的來說，正如我們在專門討論此事的電話會議中所解釋的那樣，我們對 Profertil 非常熱情。我們認為這是一筆非常有吸引力的交易，而且對我們目前的收益非常有益。因此，正如我們剛才所說，我們非常熱情，也非常渴望能夠在 12 月中旬完成這項工作。那筆交易的全部款項都已融資。

100% of the financing is already in place and at the same levels that Emilio just explained that are long term and very good rates. So there's no issue there. But in order to get into more details, et cetera, I think it is important to wait until we can make this final closing.

100% 的融資已經到位，而且正如 Emilio 剛才解釋的那樣，利率長期且非常優惠。所以這方面沒有問題。但為了了解更多細節等等，我認為有必要等到我們完成最終交割之後再做決定。

And in terms of how we report and how this company has been giving dividends, you can see in their own financials that they've done a lot of dividends during every year, and they have already sent more than $1 billion of dividends in the last five years. And regarding our accounting, as we have already mentioned, the accounting is going to be on the equity method.

至於我們如何報告以及這家公司如何派發股息，你可以從他們的財務報表中看到，他們每年都派發了大量股息，而且在過去的五年裡，他們已經派發了超過 10 億美元的股息。至於我們的會計核算，正如我們已經提到的，會計核算將採用權益法。

Yes. Okay. So you think it's too early to ask for opportunities within the business, how we explore eventually Vaca Muerta supply, how you see that dividend -- or expectations for 2026 in terms of how that could help to finance the cost of debt? Is that too early or you can give us a guidance on that sense?

是的。好的。所以您認為現在詢問公司內部的機會還為時過早，例如我們如何最終探索 Vaca Muerta 的供應，您如何看待股息——或者您對 2026 年的預期，以及股息如何幫助支付債務成本？現在說這個是不是太早了？或者您能就此給我們一些指導嗎？

No, I think it's too early to get into all the details. Again, we are very optimistic. We think that Vaca Muerta gas production is growing a lot in Argentina that you've all heard about, all the possibilities that Argentina has in order to produce gas. We are going to take advantage of this natural condition that Argentina has, and we can be the local producer of urea. So there's a lot of expectation on that going forward. But in order to get into all the details, we prefer to talk once this is something real.

不，我覺得現在討論所有細節還為時過早。我們再次表示非常樂觀。我們認為，阿根廷的瓦卡穆埃爾塔天然氣產量正在大幅增長，你們都聽說過這一點，阿根廷在天然氣生產方面擁有巨大的潛力。我們將利用阿根廷的這一自然條件，成為當地的尿素生產商。所以未來對此有很多期待。但為了深入了解所有細節，我們更希望等到事情真正成形後再討論。

This concludes the Q&A session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor over back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。此時，我想把發言權交還給博世先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you. Thank you for coming today, and hope to see you in our next call.

謝謝。感謝您今天的到來，希望下次通話中還能見到您。

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.

謝謝。今天的報告到此結束。您可以斷開連接了，祝您愉快。