American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2026 second quarter results conference call.

各位好，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 American Financial Group 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Diane, please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，投資人關係副總裁 Diane Weidner。Diane，請開始。

Good morning and welcome to American Financial Group’s second quarter 2026 earnings results conference call. We released our results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

各位早安，歡迎參加 American Financial Group 2026 年第二季盈餘結果電話會議。我們已於昨天下午發布業績。我們的新聞稿、投資人補充資料與網路直播簡報已刊登於 AFG 官網的投資人關係專區。今天電話會議的部分內容將引用這些資料。

Joining me this morning are Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group, and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

今天早上與我一同出席的有 American Financial Group 共同執行長 Carl Lindner III 與 Craig Lindner，以及 AFG 財務長 Brian Hertzman。在我把討論交給 Carl 之前，我想請各位留意我們網路直播第 2 頁投影片上的附註。今天將討論的部分事項屬於前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及若干風險與不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果及／或財務狀況與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於這些風險與不確定性的詳細說明，請參閱 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，亦可於我們網站取得。我們在發言或回答問題時，可能會提及核心淨營運盈餘（core net operating earnings）這一非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。淨盈餘與核心淨營運盈餘之間的調節表已包含於我們的盈餘新聞稿中。

And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

最後，如果您正在閱讀本次電話會議的逐字稿，請注意該逐字稿可能未經授權或未經審閱以確認正確性，因此可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，並可能對我們陳述的意圖或含義造成重大影響。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl to discuss our results.

現在我很高興把電話會議交給 Carl，請他說明我們的業績。

Well, good morning. Before we begin our commentary about the quarter, I want to take a moment to express our deepest condolences to the Berkley family. Bill was an icon in our industry, a respected competitor, and most importantly, our good friend. He leaves an incredible legacy and will be sorely missed.

各位早安。在我們開始對本季進行評論之前，我想先花一點時間向 Berkley 家族致上最深切的哀悼。Bill 是我們產業的標誌性人物，是備受尊敬的競爭對手，更重要的是，他是我們的摯友。他留下了非凡的傳承，我們將深深懷念他。

Turning our focus to AFG's second quarter, I'll share a few highlights, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig, Brian and I will respond to your questions.

把焦點轉回 AFG 第二季，我將先分享幾項重點，之後 Craig 和我會進一步說明細節。接著我們將開放問答，由 Craig、Brian 和我回覆各位的提問。

I am pleased to report that we set a new second quarter record for pretax property and casualty operating income, driven by strong underwriting margins, healthy premium growth and higher net investment income. I believe our compelling and diversified mix of specialty insurance businesses, our entrepreneurial culture, our disciplined operating philosophy and an astute team of in-house investment professionals continue to position us to create value for our shareholders through a variety of insurance market conditions.

我很高興報告，我們創下第二季稅前產險（Property & Casualty）營運收入的新紀錄，主要受惠於強勁的核保利潤率、健康的保費成長以及更高的淨投資收益。我相信，我們具吸引力且多元化的專業保險業務組合、創業家文化、嚴謹的營運理念，以及一支精明的內部投資專業團隊，將持續使我們在各種保險市場環境下，透過多種方式為股東創造價值。

Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. I will now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of these details.

Craig 和我感謝上帝、我們才華洋溢的管理團隊，以及優秀的員工，協助我們達成這些成果。接下來我把討論交給 Craig，請他帶領我們深入說明部分細節。

Thanks, Carl. Please turn to slides 3 and 4 for a summary of earnings information for the quarter. Here you will see AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.82 per share in the 2026 second quarter, a 32% increase from the prior year period. This level of performance resulted in an annualized core operating return on equity of 19.2%. I'll start with an overview of AFG's investment performance and financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity.

謝謝你，Carl。請翻到第 3 與第 4 頁投影片，查看本季盈餘資訊摘要。您將看到 AFG 在 2026 年第二季的核心淨營運盈餘為每股 2.82 美元，較去年同期成長 32%。此一表現使年化核心營運股東權益報酬率（ROE）達 19.2%。我將先概述 AFG 的投資表現與財務狀況，並就 AFG 的資本與流動性分享幾點看法。

The details surrounding our $17.1 billion investment portfolio are presented on slides 5 and 6. Net investment income in our property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended June 30, 2026 increased 23% year-over-year and established a new second quarter record for AFG and was driven by improved returns from alternative investments.

關於我們 171 億美元投資組合的細節，請見第 5 與第 6 頁投影片。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日止三個月，我們產險營運的淨投資收益年增 23%，並創下 AFG 第二季新紀錄，主要由替代性投資（alternative investments）報酬改善所帶動。

As you will see on slide 6, approximately two-thirds of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.5%. The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 3.1 years at June 30, 2026. The annualized return on alternative investments was approximately 7.1% for the 2026 second quarter compared to 1.2% for the prior year quarter.

如第 6 頁投影片所示，我們的投資組合約有三分之二配置於固定到期證券（fixed maturities）。在目前利率環境下，我們能以約 5.5% 的殖利率投資固定到期證券。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日，我們的產險固定到期投資組合（含現金及約當現金）存續期間為 3.1 年。2026 年第二季替代性投資的年化報酬率約為 7.1%，相較去年同期為 1.2%。

Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our overall alternative investment portfolio, with an expectation of annualized returns averaging 10% or better.

就長期而言，我們對整體替代性投資組合取得具吸引力報酬的前景仍保持樂觀，並預期年化平均報酬可達 10% 或更高。

In April of 2026, AFG reached definitive agreements to sell the Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina. Subject to receipt of necessary third-party approvals and satisfaction of customary closing conditions, the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. AFG currently expects to recognize a pretax core operating gain of approximately $125 million or $1.20 per share on the sale. The property is owned equally by the P&C operations and AFG parent, so the gain on sale will be reported as net investment income and split equally between the two entities. This transaction was not contemplated in AFG's original business plan assumptions.

2026 年 4 月，AFG 已達成具約束力的最終協議，出售 Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina。待取得必要的第三方核准並滿足慣常交割條件後，預期該交易將於 2026 年第三季完成交割。AFG 目前預期在出售中認列約 1.25 億美元（稅前）的核心營運收益，約合每股 1.20 美元。該資產由產險營運與 AFG 母公司各持有 50%，因此出售收益將列為淨投資收益，並由兩個實體平均分攤。此交易並未納入 AFG 原始商業計畫的假設之中。

Please turn to slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at June 30, 2026. During the quarter, we returned nearly $100 million to our shareholders, including $26 million in share repurchases and $0.88 per share regular quarterly dividend. We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2026, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends or share repurchases. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis.

請翻到第 7 頁投影片，您將看到截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日 AFG 財務狀況摘要。本季我們向股東返還近 1 億美元資金，包括 2,600 萬美元的庫藏股回購，以及每股 0.88 美元的例行季度股利。我們預期在 2026 年剩餘期間，營運將持續產生可觀的超額資本，為併購、特別股利或股票回購提供充足空間。我們會定期評估資本配置的最佳替代方案。

We continue to view total value creation, as measured by growth in book value per share plus dividends, as an important measure of performance over the long term. For the three months ended June 30, 2026, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5%.

我們持續將總價值創造（以每股帳面價值成長加上股利衡量）視為長期的重要績效指標。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日止三個月，AFG 每股帳面價值（不含 AOCI）加計股利的成長為 5%。

I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations.

接下來我把電話會議交回 Carl，請他說明我們產險營運的結果。

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our second quarter results. I'm very pleased with the strong performance of our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses. We achieved a 44% increase in underwriting profit in the first six months of the year, while executing on opportunities to grow with approximately three-fourths of our businesses reporting higher year-over-year premiums through June 30. In addition, we're doing this while consistently achieving renewal rate increases, excluding workers' comp, which have been around 5% the past four quarters. These results showcase the diversification across our 36 businesses, the underwriting discipline and opportunistic culture that have allowed us to produce strong results that outperform peers over the long run. These same attributes give us confidence that those results can continue despite softening in certain parts of the overall property and casualty market.

謝謝你，Craig。請翻到網路直播第 8 與第 9 頁投影片，其中包含我們第二季業績概覽。我對我們專業產險（Specialty Property and Casualty）業務的強勁表現感到非常滿意。今年前六個月，我們的核保利潤成長 44%；同時把握成長機會，截至 6 月 30 日約有四分之三的業務保費較去年同期增加。此外，在不含勞工補償險（workers' comp）的情況下，我們也持續達成續保費率上調，過去四個季度約為 5%。這些成果展現了我們 36 項業務的多元化、核保紀律，以及把握機會的文化，使我們長期以來能產出優於同業的強勁表現。這些相同的特質也讓我們有信心，即使整體產險市場某些領域出現趨緩，我們仍能延續這些成果。

Now looking at a few details, you'll see on slide 8 that our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance businesses produced a 91.5% combined ratio in the second quarter of 2026, an improvement of 1.6 points from the 93.1% reported in the second quarter of last year. Second quarter 2026 results benefited from 3.4 points of favorable prior year reserve development, compared to 0.7 points in the second quarter of 2025. Catastrophe losses added 1.8 points in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 2.3 points in the second quarter of last year.

再看幾項細節，您將在第 8 頁投影片看到，我們的專業產險業務在 2026 年第二季的綜合比率為 91.5%，較去年第二季的 93.1% 改善 1.6 個百分點。2026 年第二季結果受惠於 3.4 個百分點的有利前期年度準備金發展（prior year reserve development），相較之下，2025 年第二季為 0.7 個百分點。2026 年第二季的巨災損失（catastrophe losses）增加 1.8 個百分點，而去年第二季為 2.3 個百分點。

Second quarter 2026 gross and net written premiums were 7% and 6% higher, respectively, than the comparable period in 2025. As I noted earlier, average renewal rates across our Property and Casualty Group, excluding workers' comp, were up approximately 5% for the quarter. Average renewal rates including workers' compensation were up approximately 4% overall. That was about a point higher than the previous quarter. We have reported overall renewal rate increases for 40 consecutive quarters and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases that enable us to meet or exceed targeted returns.

2026 年第二季的毛承保保費與淨承保保費分別較 2025 年同期高出 7% 與 6%。如我先前提到的，我們財產與意外險事業群（不含勞工補償）的平均續保費率在本季約上升 5%。若包含勞工補償在內，整體平均續保費率約上升 4%。這比上一季約高出 1 個百分點。我們已連續 40 個季度回報整體續保費率上調，我們相信目前達成的整體續保費率上調幅度，足以使我們達到或超越目標報酬。

Now I'd like to turn to slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved a 90.3% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter of 2026, an improvement of 4.9 points from the 95.2% reported in the comparable 2025 period. Higher year-over-year underwriting profits in our transportation and agricultural businesses were the primary drivers of these very strong results.

接下來我想請各位翻到第 9 頁投影片，回顧我們各個專業財產與意外險業務群的一些重點。我們的新聞稿中已包含詳細資訊，因此我在此將聚焦於摘要結果。財產與運輸事業群在 2026 年第二季的整體曆年綜合比率為 90.3%，較 2025 年同期所報告的 95.2% 改善 4.9 個百分點。我們運輸與農業業務承保利潤的年增，是帶動這些非常強勁成果的主要因素。

Second quarter 2026 gross and net written premiums in this group were 8% and 5% higher than the comparable prior year period. The increase is primarily attributable to growth in crop insurance products with higher premium cessions, along with new business opportunities, higher exposures, and a favorable rate environment in several of our transportation businesses.

本事業群 2026 年第二季的毛承保保費與淨承保保費分別較去年同期高出 8% 與 5%。增幅主要來自作物保險產品的成長（伴隨較高的保費分出比例），以及新業務機會、較高的曝險水準，並且我們多項運輸業務所處的費率環境有利。

Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 8% on average in the second quarter of 2026, two points higher than the pricing achieved in this group for the first quarter of 2026. We reported a small underwriting profit in commercial auto liability, I'm pleased to say for the second quarter in a row, and we're continuing to make progress there. Renewal rates in commercial auto liability were up 15% during the quarter.

本事業群在 2026 年第二季的整體續保費率平均約上升 8%，較 2026 年第一季在本事業群所達成的定價高出 2 個百分點。我很高興地表示，我們在商業汽車責任險錄得小幅承保利潤，且已連續第二季如此，我們也持續在該領域取得進展。本季商業汽車責任險的續保費率上升 15%。

Now in terms of our crop business, commodity futures pricing remains in acceptable ranges relative to spring discovery prices and the most recent crop progress reports indicate that the crop year is off to a solid start. Although timely rainfall has improved soil moisture conditions across much of our footprint, moisture levels through August and early September remain important. Our crop results for 2026 will depend on the harvest yields and prices in the second half of this year.

至於作物業務方面，商品期貨價格相對於春季價格發現（spring discovery prices）仍維持在可接受區間，而最新的作物生長進度報告顯示，本作物年度開局穩健。雖然及時降雨已改善我們多數營運範圍的土壤含水狀況，但 8 月與 9 月上旬的水分水準仍然重要。我們 2026 年的作物業績將取決於今年下半年的收成產量與價格。

As a reminder, our third quarter results reflect an element of seasonality, as most of our crop insurance premiums are earned in AFG's third quarter but booked at a more conservative loss ratio until the fourth quarter, when we have better visibility into actual yields and claims activity in our MPCI business, and a clearer indication of the performance of our private product business. Consequently, we record the majority of our calendar year crop profitability in the fourth quarter. The businesses in Specialty Casualty Group achieved a solid 94.5% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter of 2026, 0.6 points higher than the 93.9% reported in the comparable period last year. We continue to be mindful of social inflation and remain conservative in our initial loss picks for the lines of business written by the businesses in this Group.

提醒各位，我們第三季的結果具有季節性因素，因為我們大部分作物保險保費是在 AFG 的第三季認列為已賺保費，但在第四季之前會以較保守的損失率入帳；到了第四季，我們對 MPCI 業務的實際產量與理賠活動有更好的能見度，也能更清楚判斷我們私人產品業務的表現。因此，我們大部分曆年作物獲利會在第四季入帳。專業意外險事業群在 2026 年第二季的整體曆年綜合比率為 94.5%，較去年同期的 93.9% 高出 0.6 個百分點。我們持續留意社會通膨，並對本事業群各業務線的初始損失估計維持保守。

Second quarter 2026 gross and net written premiums in this group increased 5% and 6%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. New business opportunities, increased exposures and higher rates drove the year-over-year increase in many of our Specialty Casualty businesses, including workers' comp, targeted markets, excess and surplus lines, energy, construction, environmental, and M&A liability.

本事業群 2026 年第二季的毛承保保費與淨承保保費分別較去年同期增加 5% 與 6%。新業務機會、曝險增加與較高費率，推動我們多項專業意外險業務的年增，包括勞工補償、目標市場、超額與剩餘線（E&S）、能源、營建、環境，以及併購（M&A）責任險。

Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were up approximately 4% in the second quarter. Pricing in this group, including workers' comp, was up about 2%. Now, the Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an 85.6% calendar year combined ratio for the second quarter of 2026, an improvement of over a half of a point from the comparable period last year.

若排除勞工補償業務，本事業群第二季的續保費率約上升 4%。若包含勞工補償在內，本事業群定價約上升 2%。接著，專業金融事業群持續達成優異的承保利潤率，並在 2026 年第二季報告 85.6% 的曆年綜合比率，較去年同期改善超過 0.5 個百分點。

Gross and net written premiums were both up 10% in this group when compared to the prior year period, primarily due to the growth in our financial institutions business. Renewal pricing in this group decreased less than 1% in the second quarter, reflecting the strong margins earned on these businesses overall.

本事業群的毛承保保費與淨承保保費相較去年同期皆上升 10%，主要由金融機構業務的成長所帶動。本事業群第二季的續保定價下降不到 1%，反映這些業務整體所賺取的強勁利潤率。

Craig and I are proud of our proven track record of innovation, long-term value creation and a forward-thinking mindset. And we feel AFG is well positioned to continue to build long-term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

Craig 和我以我們在創新、長期價值創造以及前瞻思維方面經過驗證的紀錄為傲。我們也認為，AFG 已做好充分準備，在 2026 年剩餘期間及其後持續為股東創造長期價值。

We'll now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call. And Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

現在我們將開放電話線路，進入今天電話會議的問答環節。Craig、Brian 和我都很樂意回覆各位的問題。

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session.

謝謝。現在我們將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first speaker is Hristian Getsov from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Hristian.

我們的第一位提問者是來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Hristian Getsov。請開始，Hristian。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on the uptick in the underlying loss ratios, particularly in Specialty Casualty and Specialty Financials, which it seems like it could be driven by mix and conservatism, but how should we think about the potential improvement on the expense side of the equation from the mix shift just given like there's also productivity gains that maybe could be recognized on the expense side? And just given the increased conservatism in those lines and rate continuing to be at or exceeding target margins, could we potentially also see higher PYD? Thank you.

嗨，早安。謝謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題是關於基礎損失率的上升，特別是在專業意外險與專業金融業務；看起來可能是由組合變化與保守性所驅動，但我們應該如何看待因組合轉移而在費用端可能帶來的改善？因為似乎也有生產力提升，或許可以在費用端反映出來。另外，考量這些業務線保守性提高、且費率仍持續達到或超過目標利潤率，我們是否也可能看到更高的 PYD？謝謝。

Hi, this is Brian. I think what’s important, as you start to think about that answer, is to start sort of at the beginning, which is that when we're looking at our businesses, we're looking at things from a return on equity perspective overall and not just the combined ratio, not just the loss ratio.

嗨，我是 Brian。我認為在思考這個問題的答案時，重要的是從一開始的出發點來看：我們在檢視各項業務時，是從整體股東權益報酬率（ROE）的角度來看，而不只是看綜合比率，也不只是看損失率。

So we do have to keep in mind that when businesses at a longer tail, like workers' comp, grow, they have a greater opportunity for investment income that we can have high-teen ROEs even at higher combined ratios. Even after considering investment income, it can be tricky to analyze the components of the combined ratios separately, as some products, like our successful lender-placed business, have a higher underwriting expense ratio and a lower loss ratio compared to other businesses. When strong performing businesses like that grow, our expense ratio goes up, but so does our ROE.

因此我們必須記住，當像勞工補償這類較長尾的業務成長時，會有更大的投資收益機會，使我們即使在較高的綜合比率下仍能達到十幾%的 ROE。即使把投資收益納入考量，將綜合比率的各個構成項目分開分析也可能很棘手，因為某些產品（例如我們表現成功的貸方置換保險 lender-placed 業務）相較於其他業務，承保費用率較高、損失率較低。當這類表現強勁的業務成長時，我們的費用率會上升，但 ROE 也會上升。

In fact, in our lender-placed business, where many of our products offer profit-based commissions, when that business goes well, our underwriting expenses go up. So, in underwriting expenses, in this quarter, you're seeing the impact of growth and continued success in lender-placed insurance driving up the expense ratio.

事實上，在我們的 lender-placed 業務中，許多產品提供以利潤為基礎的佣金；當該業務表現良好時，我們的承保費用就會上升。因此，在本季的承保費用中，你看到的是 lender-placed 保險的成長與持續成功推升費用率的影響。

When you switch over to the accident year loss ratio by segment, again, it's important to remember that we look at our reserves by business every quarter and use that information to not only set our loss picks, but also to inform our pricing and risk appetite. So we're very cautious around our reserve picks and we tend to react quicker to bad news and slower to good news. So we're being deliberately cautious around social inflation-exposed businesses despite the improvements that we've seen in that area, particularly in places like commercial auto liability.

當你轉而看各分部的事故年度損失率時，同樣重要的是要記住：我們每一季都會按業務檢視準備金，並利用這些資訊不僅設定我們的損失估計，也用來指導定價與風險承擔偏好。因此，我們在準備金估計上非常謹慎，通常對壞消息反應更快、對好消息反應較慢。即便我們在某些領域看到改善，特別是在商業汽車責任險等方面，我們仍對暴露於社會通膨的業務刻意保持謹慎。

I think in considering the adequacy of our current loss picks, AFG's history of consistent overall favorable development should be an indication of how prudent we tend to be and noting that nothing has changed here. Just practically, I'd rather be talking to you and to Carl and Craig about the reasons why we have favorable development versus adverse development. So we are, again, being slow to react to the good news that we're seeing there.

我認為，在評估我們目前損失選取（loss picks）的適足性時，AFG 過去一貫呈現整體有利發展（favorable development）的歷史，應可反映我們一向相當審慎，而且也要注意到這一點並沒有改變。就實務而言，我寧可和你、以及 Carl 和 Craig 討論我們為什麼會出現有利發展，而不是不利發展（adverse development）。因此，我們再次對我們所看到的好消息採取較慢的反應。

When you start to look at it by segment, focusing on Casualty and Financial, in Casualty, we're seeing good growth in workers' comp and in certain targeted markets. Results are very good, but those businesses do run at a higher loss ratio compared to the overall segment. Decisions on where we participate in excess policies can also impact the loss ratio for that segment.

當你開始按部門來看，聚焦於意外險（Casualty）與金融（Financial）時，在意外險方面，我們在勞工補償險（workers' comp）以及某些鎖定的市場看到良好的成長。結果非常好，但這些業務相較於整體部門而言，損失率較高。我們在超額保單（excess policies）中選擇參與的範圍，也會影響該部門的損失率。

In Financial, there were some minor tweaks to some of the smaller businesses outside of lender-placed insurance, but nothing we would call a trend. Mostly, what you're seeing is the impact of intentional growth in businesses like our European operations that run at a higher loss and LAE ratio and from the change in mix of business, where we're still growing in areas that meet our ROE objectives but happen to have a higher loss ratio than the lender-placed business or the other businesses in the overall Financial segment.

在金融部門方面，除了貸款人置入保險（lender-placed insurance）以外的一些較小業務有做一些小幅調整，但沒有任何我們會稱之為趨勢的變化。你看到的主要是我們刻意在某些業務上成長所帶來的影響，例如我們的歐洲營運，其損失與損失調整費用（LAE）比率較高；以及業務組合變動的影響：我們仍在符合 ROE 目標的領域成長，但這些領域的損失率剛好高於貸款人置入業務或金融部門整體中的其他業務。

So, when you think about things from a longer point of view, as Carl said before, we're confident in our reserves and our ability to produce strong returns through a variety of market cycles.

因此，從較長期的角度來看，正如 Carl 先前所說，我們對準備金（reserves）以及在各種市場循環中創造強勁報酬的能力充滿信心。

Got it. Thank you. And then for my follow-up, just sticking with the AI component, I guess the potential benefit on the expense side of the margin is pretty well understood. But how do you think about potential improvements on the underlying loss ratio from the use of AI as underwriters get better access to better data and they could also digest the data quicker and more efficiently?

了解，謝謝。那我追問一下，仍聚焦在 AI 這一塊：我想 AI 在費用端對利潤率的潛在助益大家已經很清楚了。但你們如何看待 AI 在核保人能取得更好的資料、也能更快更有效率地消化資料之後，對基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）可能帶來的改善？

I think that's a work in progress. I think that fits under the category with us on AI-powered underwriting knowledge management. We're doing many pilots right now designed to enhance underwriting training, knowledge retrieval and decision support in a number of our different businesses. So I think we're just on the front end of that. I think where a lot of our AI focus has been is on submission automation, document intelligence, claims workflow automation. AI-enabled recorded statements, which improves claims handling efficiency and customer experience through automated summarization and insights and broad deployment of AI tools across the organization today.

我認為這仍在進行中。我覺得這屬於我們所說的「AI 驅動的核保知識管理」。我們目前正在進行許多試點，目的是在多個不同業務中強化核保訓練、知識檢索與決策支援。所以我認為我們才剛起步。我們很多 AI 的重點其實放在投保資料（submission）自動化、文件智慧（document intelligence）、理賠流程自動化；AI 輔助的錄音陳述（recorded statements），透過自動摘要與洞見提升理賠處理效率與客戶體驗；以及今天在整個組織中廣泛部署 AI 工具。

So like everyone else, we're making a significant investment, and we're encouraged by the productivity improvements that we're seeing. But on underwriting itself, building an underwriting knowledge management, I think we're probably on the early end of that, probably farther along in the use in the claims side.

所以和其他公司一樣，我們正在做出相當大的投資，而且我們對目前看到的生產力提升感到鼓舞。但就核保本身而言，建立核保知識管理，我認為我們可能還在較早期；在理賠端的應用可能走得更前面一些。

Great, thank you and congrats on the quarter.

很好，謝謝，也恭喜本季表現。

One moment. For our next question. We have Michael Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead, Michael.

請稍等。我們下一個問題是來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。Michael，請發問。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Maybe first question on the competitive environment and pricing, specifically renewal pricing. I think from data points we've received from a lot of your peers and industry data over the last quarter or so, we've seen a decel in a number of pockets. Maybe you can kind of discuss what's buoying AFG's pricing levels, maybe even a little bit of momentum in certain spots sequentially?

嗨，謝謝，早安。第一個問題可能關於競爭環境與定價，特別是續保定價（renewal pricing）。從我們在過去一季左右從你們許多同業以及產業數據所得到的資料點來看，我們看到不少領域出現放緩。你能否談談是什麼在支撐 AFG 的定價水準，甚至在某些地方相較前一季還有一些動能？

Yeah, I'm happy to give a little insight into that. I am pleased, as I think I mentioned in my comments and in our release, three-quarters of our businesses have some growth through six months. So that's pretty broad-based growth. I think our diversified portfolio of 36 businesses gives us a broad array of opportunities. I think predictive analytics on pricing, growing sophistication there, business by business, is helping us.

好的，我很樂意分享一些看法。我很高興，正如我在評論以及我們的新聞稿中提到的，我們有四分之三的業務在前六個月都有成長，這是相當廣泛的成長。我認為我們由 36 個業務組成的多元化投資組合，提供了很廣的機會。我也認為在定價的預測分析（predictive analytics）方面，各業務別的成熟度提升，正在幫助我們。

I think one of the main things is we're kind, of as I mentioned in past quarterly conversations, that we're pretty much through the reset on the social inflation-exposed businesses. We talked about some re-underwriting certain classes, lowering -- bringing limits down, social inflation exposed-businesses, raising retentions in some businesses, like public sector.

我認為其中一個主要因素是，正如我在過去幾次季度對話中提到的，我們基本上已經完成了對受社會通膨（social inflation）影響的業務之「重設」。我們談過對某些類別重新核保（re-underwriting）、降低——把承保限額（limits）調降、針對受社會通膨影響的業務，以及在某些業務（例如公部門）提高自留額（retentions）。

So I think we're able to play offense versus defense more today and grow some of these lines. Now commercial auto, the same thing where as I mentioned, second quarter in a row where in commercial auto liability itself that we're making a small underwriting profit a and commercial auto overall, we're earning solid underwriting profits and good ROEs and we're having the ability to play more offense and find opportunities for some growth there.

因此我認為，相較於防守，我們現在更能採取進攻策略並擴大這些線別。商業車險也是同樣情況：如我提到的，連續第二季在商業車險責任險（commercial auto liability）本身我們取得小幅核保利潤，而商業車險整體我們也賺取穩健的核保利潤與良好的 ROE；我們更有能力採取進攻策略，並在其中找到一些成長機會。

So I feel good about for the rest of the year, where we're at, very optimistic that we'll continue to have opportunities to grow our businesses and in a fairly broad basis.

所以我對今年剩餘時間我們所處的位置感覺良好，也非常樂觀，認為我們將持續有機會在相當廣泛的基礎上成長我們的業務。

That's helpful, Carl. Maybe just honing in Specialty Casualty, the underlying loss ratio this year, which gets a lot of attention from investors has been on a -- I guess, on a first half of the year basis, running in kind of the 63% plus range and last year kind of ran in the 65% range for the full year. So I guess, to the previous question, it was mentioned there was an uptick in the underlying loss ratio. Is there seasonality in there where I should be thinking about the first half of this year versus the first half of last year? Or is it better to compare the first half of '26 to the full year '25 or maybe none of the above?

這很有幫助，Carl。再聚焦一下專業意外險（Specialty Casualty）：今年的基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）一直受到投資人高度關注；以今年上半年來看，大概落在 63% 以上，而去年全年大概在 65% 左右。所以回到前一個問題，剛才提到基礎損失率有上升。我想問這裡是否有季節性因素，讓我應該拿今年上半年對比去年上半年？還是比較適合拿 26 年上半年對比 25 年全年？或以上皆非？

I would say, in Casualty, there's really not a lot of seasonality there. There's definitely seasonality when you look at the Property and Transportation numbers just because of the crop business, in particular, can cause the loss ratio to vary quarter-to-quarter. In Casualty, really, what's driving those changes is mix of business. And even though we're seeing good improvements in the results overall, we are still being conservative on the social inflation-exposed areas, and most of that's in Casualty.

我會說，在意外險（Casualty）方面，其實沒有太多季節性。當你看財產險（Property）與運輸險（Transportation）的數字時，確實會有季節性，主要是因為農作物（crop）業務，特別是它會讓損失率在各季之間波動。但在意外險方面，真正驅動這些變化的是業務組合（mix of business）。即使我們整體結果看到良好改善，我們在受社會通膨影響的領域仍然保持保守，而其中大部分都在意外險。

So as far as trends go, I think we're always going to adjust quarter-to-quarter by business, but I would say there really isn't seasonality there, that it's more mix of business that's changing it compared to last year.

就趨勢而言，我認為我們總是會按業務在各季做調整，但我會說那裡確實沒有季節性；相較於去年，更多是業務組合的變化在影響它。

Can I add one more comment on the growth side? As I'm thinking about it, other companies really weighed in heavily on writing more convective storm exposed and coastal property, particularly in the E&S side, than we did. They had a bigger appetite. By the same token, as the property pricing’s caved on a lot of that business, it really has less impact on us versus our peers. So I do think that is also one differential.

我可以就成長面再補充一點嗎？我在想，其他公司在承作更多暴露於對流風暴（convective storm）與沿海財產（coastal property）的業務上投入得更重，特別是在 E&S 端，比我們更積極；他們的胃納更大。同樣地，當財產險定價在那類業務上崩跌（caved）時，對我們的影響相較同業更小。所以我確實認為這也是一個差異點。

That makes sense. And then lastly, back to the kind of technology conversation that you opined on a moment ago. I guess there's some folks that expressed that a company that operates a more decentralized business model with many different segments might on average, not be able to kind of deploy AI technologies as swiftly versus an insurer that might have run kind of a more centralized operating model. Any thoughts about that remark?

這很合理。最後一個問題，回到你剛才談到的科技話題。有些人認為，採取較分散式經營模式、擁有許多不同部門的公司，平均而言可能無法像採取較集中式營運模式的保險公司那樣迅速部署 AI 技術。你對這個說法有什麼看法？

I think in a one or two line business, a primary auto or homeowner’s writer, maybe that could be the case. I might argue the opposite, that where you have more business units and more people that are enabled to use the tools, you might have greater success finding some applications when you have 36 different business groups, deploying AI.

我認為如果是一、兩條線的業務，例如主力做汽車險或住宅險的承保人，或許可能是那樣。但我可能會主張相反：當你有更多業務單位、更多人能使用這些工具時，反而可能更容易成功找到一些應用情境；因為你有 36 個不同的業務團隊在部署 AI。

So I think some of our businesses, our crop business, for instance, is using extensive AI and getting extensive results, I think, in a lot of different ways in its business. So I think that's an example of one business we'd be ahead of the pack, probably. So I don't know. I think that would be my response to you.

所以我認為我們的一些業務——例如我們的農作物業務——正在廣泛運用 AI，並且在很多不同面向都取得了顯著成果。我想這就是一個例子，顯示我們在某個業務上可能走在同業前面。所以我不確定。我想這就是我對你的回覆。

Carl, I would just add to that, too, that even though we do have 36 different business units with a strong decentralized focus on underwriting and claims, things like AI, we do a good job of our business units to talk to each other and work together over time. So if there's something that works for one business unit, you can be assured that that will be talked about and considered for the other business units. So even though they have a lot of autonomy, they don't operate completely in a vacuum.

Carl，我也想補充一點：即使我們確實有 36 個不同的事業單位，並且在核保與理賠等方面採取強烈的分權運作，像 AI 這類事情，我們的各事業單位之間也做得很好，會彼此交流並隨時間共同合作。所以如果某個做法對某個事業單位有效，你可以確信這會被拿出來討論，並被其他事業單位加以考量。因此即便他們有很高的自主性，也不會完全各自為政、在真空中運作。

Thank you.

謝謝。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andrew Andersen from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Andrew.

請稍候，我們進行下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Andrew Andersen。請開始，Andrew。

Hey, good morning. You had mentioned commercial auto produced a small underwriting profit for a second straight quarter. What is needed to move this from small profit towards targeted returns? Is that going to require pricing above the 15% that you're seeing recently?

嗨，早安。你提到商業車險連續第二季產生小幅核保利潤。要把這從小幅利潤推進到目標報酬，需要什麼條件？這是否需要把定價提高到你們近期看到的 15% 以上？

Yeah. Thanks for your question. I want to clarify things. We're making a very solid profit in commercial auto overall. My commentary had to do with the commercial auto liability piece of the commercial auto results, where, on that piece, we're making a small underwriting profit for the second quarter in a row. But I think because of the environment that we're in, we still have work to do, and we continue to be focused on achieving rate that exceeds loss ratio trends for commercial auto liability. And I mentioned rates were still up 15% for the second quarter. I think the good news is we're continuing to get good rate. We're having the ability to grow our commercial auto business and overall in commercial auto, we're at solid margins. So I feel very good about that.

是的，謝謝你的問題。我想先澄清一下。我們在商業車險整體上是獲得非常穩健的利潤。我剛才的評論是針對商業車險結果中的「商業車險責任險」部分；在那一部分，我們已連續第二季取得小幅核保利潤。但我認為，鑑於我們所處的環境，我們仍有工作要做，並且會持續聚焦於讓商業車險責任險的費率增幅高於損失率趨勢。我也提到第二季費率仍上調 15%。我想好消息是我們仍持續取得不錯的費率；我們也有能力擴大商業車險業務，而在商業車險整體上，我們的利潤率很穩健。所以我對此感到非常有信心。

And then for companies like National Interstate, when you add the workers' comp into that, the result is even better. So yeah, my comments were more towards commercial auto liability. Commercial auto overall and workers' comp in our transportation businesses are doing very well.

另外，像 National Interstate 這類公司，當你把工傷險（workers' comp）也納入時，結果會更好。所以，是的，我的評論主要是針對商業車險責任險。商業車險整體以及我們運輸業務中的工傷險表現都非常好。

Thank you for that clarification. Maybe sticking with workers' comp, could you quantify what 2Q pricing was there? And just given the benign loss trends, are you comfortable growing that book despite negative rate?

謝謝你釐清。或許繼續談工傷險，你能量化一下第二季的定價變動嗎？另外，考量到損失趨勢溫和，你們是否仍願意在費率為負的情況下擴大這本業務？

The loss ratio trends continue to be very benign, and we continue to have really strong results both on a calendar year basis and an accident year basis. Poor California underwriting results would be the exception. California is 14% of our workers' comp business and we're not doing well there, like a lot of others. We've had continued favorable development in the second quarter and six months. We feel our reserve position is strong.

損失率趨勢仍然非常溫和，我們在曆年基礎與事故年度基礎上都持續有非常強勁的結果。例外會是加州較差的核保結果。加州占我們工傷險業務的 14%，而我們在那裡表現不佳，和許多同業一樣。第二季與上半年我們仍有持續的有利發展（favorable development）。我們認為我們的準備金部位很強健。

Second quarter pricing for that overall business is down about 2% and about 3% through six months. But again, that's on top of really great results and a strong reserve position. Our workers' comp results will probably be not as good as we go forward but will continue to be very strong. And we're growing that business some. So in the second quarter, I think we had mid-single-digit growth in our overall comp business, even with our California premiums being down.

第二季該整體業務的定價約下滑 2%，上半年約下滑 3%。但再次強調，這是在非常優異的結果與強健的準備金部位之上。往後我們的工傷險結果可能不會像現在這麼好，但仍會維持非常強勁。我們也在一定程度上擴大這項業務。因此在第二季，我想我們整體工傷險業務有中個位數的成長，即使我們在加州的保費是下滑的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Gregory.

請稍候，我們進行下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。請開始，Gregory。

Hey, good afternoon. This is Mitch, on for Greg. So we've been hearing about increased competition in casualty from MGAs and fronting-backed capital. With your comments on being through the social inflation reset, what are you seeing from pricing and submission flow standpoint?

嗨，午安。我是 Mitch，代 Greg 提問。我們聽到傷害險（casualty）領域的競爭加劇，來自 MGA 以及由前端承保（fronting）支持的資本。結合你提到已經度過社會通膨重置（social inflation reset），從定價與投保案件提交量（submission flow）的角度，你們看到了什麼？

Well, we're continuing, I think, as I mentioned, in our social inflation exposed-businesses like excess liability and umbrella, we're continuing to get around 10% or double-digit price increase there. High single-digit price increase in some businesses like nonprofits. So the businesses that we need it, I think we're continuing to get rate that helps us meet or even exceed our targeted returns.

嗯，我們仍然——我想如我所提到的——在那些暴露於社會通膨的業務上，例如超額責任險（excess liability）與伞式保單（umbrella），我們仍能取得約 10% 或雙位數的價格上調。在某些業務如非營利組織（nonprofits）方面，則是高個位數的價格上調。所以在我們需要的那些業務上，我認為我們仍持續取得有助於達成、甚至超越目標報酬的費率。

Things like excess liability and umbrella, where we have seen MGAs step in, it's certainly probably easy for them to write the business. It will be really interesting to see how many of them burn up over the next two or three years. So I do think the MGAs are having some impact in some ends of the specialty casualty marketplace. Usually, that doesn't turn out well when in longer-tail specialty casualty lines, where the incentives on growth, and that's the way they build earnings, usually doesn’t turn out too well.

像超額責任險與伞式保單這類業務，我們確實看到 MGA 介入；對他們而言，承作這些業務可能相當容易。但未來兩到三年會有多少家被燒掉（出現虧損或退出），將會很有意思。所以我確實認為 MGA 在專業傷害險市場的某些端點上造成了一些影響。通常在長尾的專業傷害險線別中，當成長誘因很強、而他們就是靠這種方式建立獲利時，結果往往不會太好。

That's really helpful. I appreciate the color. Turning to Specialty Financial, where rates turned slightly negative in the quarter and premium was up around 10%. Could you provide some insight on what areas of that market you're leaning into for growth?

這很有幫助，謝謝你提供的細節。轉到 Specialty Financial，本季費率轉為小幅負成長，而保費約成長 10%。你能分享一下你們在該市場中偏向在哪些領域推動成長嗎？

Well, the lender-placed property business, I think I talked about, we had entered into a quota share agreement starting last year that had an impact on our business for about 12 months and now we've renewed that. So really from the second quarter on, we don't have the drag of that quota share. So I think we're back to more meaningful growth quarter-by-quarter in our lender-placed property business. But we have other businesses, like Great American Europe, that we're growing. We have a business, specialty equipment services, where insurance is placed at the front end of a purchase on capital goods equipment. And so we have a number of businesses that are showing healthy growth in our Specialty Financial segment now.

嗯，關於貸款人置入財產險（lender-placed property）業務，我想我有提到，我們從去年開始進入一項比例分保（quota share）協議，該協議對我們的業務影響約 12 個月，而現在我們已續約。因此從第二季開始，我們不再受到那個比例分保的拖累。所以我認為我們的貸款人置入財產險業務，已回到更有意義的逐季成長。不過我們還有其他業務在成長，例如 Great American Europe。我們也有一項業務——專業設備服務（specialty equipment services）——是在資本財設備購買的前端配置保險。因此我們在 Specialty Financial 分部目前有多項業務呈現健康成長。

Thanks and congrats on the quarter.

謝謝，並恭喜本季表現。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Diane Weidner for closing remarks.

目前顯示沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給 Diane Weidner 作結語。

Thank you, James, and thank you all for joining us this morning and for your good questions. We look forward to chatting with you again next quarter. We hope you all have a great day.

謝謝你，James，也謝謝各位今天早上加入我們並提出很好的問題。我們期待下個季度再與各位交流。祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。至此本次議程結束。您現在可以中斷連線。