AerCap Holdings NV (AER) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to AerCap's fourth-quarter 2024 financial results. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Joseph McGinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎閱讀 AerCap 2024 年第四季財務業績。今天的會議正在進行錄音，會議記錄將在會議結束後發佈在公司網站上。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管約瑟夫‧麥金利 (Joseph McGinley)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our fourth-quarter 2024 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly; and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas.

謝謝接線員，大家好。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季電話會議。今天和我一起的是我們的執行長 Aengus Kelly；以及我們的財務長 Pete Juhas。

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that arise after this call.

在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒大家，這次電話會議中所做的一些陳述並非歷史事實，而是前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果或事件與此類陳述中表達或暗示的結果或事件有重大差異。除法律規定外，AerCap 不承擔任何義務，公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映本次電話會議後出現的未來事件、資訊或情況。

Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated February 26, 2025. A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q&A.

有關可能對業績產生重大影響的問題的更多信息，請參閱 AerCap 2025 年 2 月 26 日發布的收益報告。收益報告和電話會議簡報的副本可在我們的網站 aercap.com 上取得。本次電話會議向公眾開放，並在 aercap.com 上同步進行網路直播，並將存檔以供重播。我們很快就會完成我們的收益報告，並在最後留出時間進行問答。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

I would now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

現在我將把電話轉給 Aengus Kelly。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. We are pleased to report another strong year of earnings for AerCap, generating GAAP net income of $2.1 billion and earnings per share of $10.79. The adjusted net income of $2.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $12.01.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我們很高興地報告 AerCap 又取得了強勁的獲利年度，其 GAAP 淨收入達到 21 億美元，每股收益達到 10.79 美元。調整後的淨收入為 23 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 12.01 美元。

We expect to see a continuation of the trends that we saw last year in 2025. This includes the supportive supply-demand dynamic, continued accretive capital deployment opportunities and robust demand for our assets, leading to an adjusted 2025 EPS range of $8.50 to $9.50 not including the contribution of gains and sale of assets, which historically have been material.

我們預計 2025 年將延續去年的趨勢。這包括支持性的供需動態、持續增值的資本配置機會以及對我們資產的強勁需求，從而導致調整後的 2025 年每股收益範圍為 8.50 美元至 9.50 美元，不包括收益和資產出售的貢獻，這些貢獻在歷史上一直很重要。

As we have discussed in prior quarters, the positive environment for aircraft leasing continues, and we are seeing this reflected in strong operational performance of the business. Last year, we generated $5.4 billion of operating cash flow, which, of course, excludes $651 million of gains on sale.

正如我們在前幾季所討論的那樣，飛機租賃的積極環境仍在繼續，我們看到這反映在業務強勁的營運業績中。去年，我們產生了 54 億美元的營運現金流，當然，這不包括 6.51 億美元的銷售收益。

During the fourth quarter, we generated a gain on sale margin of 43% or 260% of the associated book equity. We executed 812 transactions across our various businesses, equivalent to more than two per day. This level of activity gives AerCap unrivaled insights into the global aviation market. This, in turn, allows for a better understanding of our customers' needs and how to support their growth.

在第四季度，我們的銷售利潤率為 43%，即相關帳面權益的 260%。我們在各個業務領域執行了 812 筆交易，相當於每天兩筆以上。這種程度的活動使 AerCap 對全球航空市場擁有無與倫比的洞察力。這反過來又使我們能夠更好地了解客戶的需求以及如何支持他們的成長。

Looking ahead, we have $45 billion of contracted future lease cash flows in place on our existing fleet, over 40% of which will be received in the next three years. This gives us tremendous visibility into our future cash flows, allowing us to allocate capital effectively and thoughtfully, creating continued value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們現有船隊的合約未來租賃現金流為 450 億美元，其中 40% 以上將在未來三年內收到。這使我們對未來現金流有了極大的了解，使我們能夠有效、周到地分配資本，為股東創造持續的價值。

With this in mind, we are pleased to announce a new $1 billion share repurchase program, our largest single authorization to date. This takes the total amount of buyback spent and authorized in the last two years alone to $5 billion, further underlining the significant value we see in AerCap stock today and our confidence in the outlook for 2025 and beyond.

考慮到這一點，我們很高興地宣布一項新的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，這是我們迄今為止最大的單筆授權。這使得過去兩年內花費和授權的回購總額達到 50 億美元，進一步強調了我們今天看到的 AerCap 股票的巨大價值以及我們對 2025 年及以後前景的信心。

Turning to the market. It is clear that the industry continues to plan for a lower for longer supply environment, evidenced by continued increases in lease rates, lease extension demand, and strong gain on sale.

轉向市場。顯然，該行業繼續為長期供應環境的較低水平做準備，租賃率的持續上升、租賃延期需求以及強勁的銷售收益就是明證。

2024 was the third year in a row of increased extension activity, reflective of this ongoing demand for aircraft. This is also driving strong sales activity, resulting in a $260 million gain on sale in Q4, our highest in a single quarter and also a record full-year gain on sale of $651 million.

2024 年是連續第三年增加延期活動，反映了對飛機的持續需求。這也推動了強勁的銷售活動，導致第四季度的銷售收益達到 2.6 億美元，為單季最高水平，全年銷售收益也創下了 6.51 億美元的紀錄。

The largest global aircraft leasing conference was hosted in Dublin last month, attracting thousands of stakeholders to the event. And it was clear from the many conversations we had with airlines, aircraft traders and financiers, the demand for aviation assets continues to grow. As you can see from the slide, we are selling a wide mix of assets to a wide mix of buyers, each with a different focus on asset type age or counterparty.

全球規模最大的飛機租賃會議上個月在都柏林舉行，吸引了數千名利害關係人參加。從我們與航空公司、飛機貿易商和金融家的多次對話中可以清楚看出，對航空資產的需求持續成長。從幻燈片中可以看出，我們向各種各樣的買家出售各種各樣的資產，每個買家對資產類型、年齡或交易對手的關注點都不同。

In the first category, airlines tend to focus on the older part of the curve, typically buying out aircraft at the end of a lease to secure certainty of capacity. Given their knowledge of the aircraft and its maintenance condition, they are well placed to understand the value of the aircraft.

在第一類中，航空公司傾向於關注曲線中較老的部分，通常在租賃期結束時買下飛機以確保運力的確定性。鑑於他們對飛機及其維護狀況的了解，他們完全能夠理解飛機的價值。

We generate strong gains in sale with this buyer base reflects well on two things. Firstly, it shows the critical benefit of having in-house engine and technical teams who control the life cycle spend and condition of the aircraft engines translating into higher residual values.

我們憑藉這個買家群體實現了強勁的銷售成長，這充分反映了兩件事。首先，它顯示了擁有內部引擎和技術團隊的關鍵優勢，這些團隊可以控制飛機引擎的生命週期消耗和狀況，從而轉化為更高的殘值。

Secondly, it points to the premium or assets command in the market over our carrying values. In light of the continued OEM delays, and engine reliability challenges, this is a theme we expect to continue into 2025 and beyond. Financial investors, on the other hand, tend to buy young to midlife aircraft and engines. Ideally with long lease terms remaining where predictability of income is highly valuable. These buyers were more prevalent before COVID, but we see early signs of strength returning here again based on some of the recent conversations we are having in this space.

其次，它指的是市場上的溢價或資產指示高於我們的帳面價值。鑑於 OEM 持續延遲和引擎可靠性挑戰，我們預計這一主題將持續到 2025 年及以後。另一方面，金融投資者傾向於購買較新至中年的飛機和引擎。理想情況下，剩餘的租賃期限較長，因為收入的可預測性非常重要。這些買家在 COVID 之前更為普遍，但根據我們最近在這個領域進行的一些對話，我們看到了實力再次回歸的早期跡象。

The other category contained aircraft sold for part-out finance leases and sales to other leasing companies. The combination of which run the full gamut of age and aircraft types. In summary, this shows that AerCap's gains on sale are not limited to a select few assets or credits, but broad-based across our aircraft, engines, and helicopter portfolios. Gains on sale have been a feature of our business for almost 20 years as a public company and reflect the deep embedded value created by the AerCap platform every single day.

另一類包括以部分融資租賃方式出售的飛機和出售給其他租賃公司的飛機。這些飛機涵蓋了各種年齡和類型的飛機。總而言之，這表明 AerCap 的出售收益不僅限於少數資產或信貸，還涵蓋了我們的飛機、引擎和直升機投資組合。作為一家上市公司，銷售收益近 20 年來一直是我們業務的一個特點，反映了 AerCap 平台每天創造的深層價值。

Turning to capital allocation. We mentioned earlier that we have excellent visibility of future cash flows, which is key to our capital deployment strategy. We will continue to utilize these strong cash flows to return capital to you, our shareholders, while also leaning into today's very strong sales environment.

轉向資本配置。我們之前提到過，我們對未來現金流有很好的可視性，這對我們的資本配置策略至關重要。我們將繼續利用這些強勁的現金流向您（我們的股東）返還資本，同時也依靠當今非常強勁的銷售環境。

In doing this, we will continue to sell our lower priority assets for strong gains on sale and reinvest the proceeds into organic growth and share repurchases, resulting in a more efficient, more profitable company. Over the last two years alone, we have invested over $12 billion into new assets. We returned over $4 billion to shareholders and levered.

在此過程中，我們將繼續出售優先順序較低的資產，以獲得豐厚的銷售收益，並將收益再投資於有機成長和股票回購，使公司更有效率、更有利可圖。光是在過去兩年裡，我們就向新資產投資了超過 120 億美元。我們向股東返還了超過 40 億美元並利用了槓桿。

This shareholder-friendly approach flexibility, in fact, quite the opposite as our leverage ratio remains well below our stated target of 2.7 times to 1. And our credit ratings stand at the highest ever level at BBB+. I am sure it's not unique to return significant capital to shareholders, but it is extremely rare that it can be achieved at this scale while delevering the balance sheet and increasing your investment-grade credit ratings.

這種對股東友善的靈活性實際上恰恰相反，因為我們的槓桿率仍然遠低於我們設定的 2.7 倍比 1 的目標。我們的信用評級達到了 BBB+ 的最高水準。我確信向股東返還大量資本並非獨一無二，但能夠以如此規模實現這一目標，同時降低資產負債表槓桿率並提高投資級信用評級的情況極為罕見。

What should also stand out to investors is the stability and consistency of this approach over many years. On the left-hand side of the slide, you'll see our organic investment in the business. This organic growth comes from three sources: one, direct aircraft purchases from the OEMs made in more favorable environments; two, opportunistic sale leasebacks with new and existing airline customers that needs AerCap's help; and three, our recently announced engine deals.

令投資人印象深刻的還有這種方法多年來的穩定性和一致性。在幻燈片的左側，您將看到我們對該業務的有機投資。這種有機成長來自三個方面：一是在更有利的環境下直接從原始設備製造商購買飛機；二是向新舊航空公司客戶進行售後回租，這需要 AerCap 的幫助；第三，我們最近宣布的發動機交易。

On shareholder returns, as we mentioned earlier, today's record $1 billion share repurchase authorization takes total announcements to $5 billion in the last two years. In that time, we have deployed $4 billion and reduced the share count by 25%, with more to come from this latest authorization. These returns come from a position of strength built on industry-leading cash flows, knowledge, and profitability, making them both attractive and sustainable.

關於股東回報，正如我們之前提到的，今天創紀錄的 10 億美元股票回購授權使過去兩年的公告總額達到 50 億美元。在此期間，我們已部署了 40 億美元，並將股票數量減少了 25%，根據最新授權，我們還將部署更多資金。這些回報源自於業界領先的現金流、知識和獲利能力所建立的優勢地位，使其既具有吸引力又具有可持續性。

So as we look back on 2024, this was another great year for AerCap with broad-based demand for our aircraft. We completed 150 asset purchases executed just under 500 lease agreements and generated $5.4 billion of operating cash flow. In addition, we repurchased 16.8 million shares for $1.5 billion, reduced our leverage to 2.35 times, and were upgraded to BBB+ by both S&P and Moody's.

因此，當我們回顧 2024 年時，這對 AerCap 來說又是偉大的一年，我們的飛機擁有廣泛的需求。我們完成了 150 項資產收購，執行了近 500 項租賃協議，並產生了 54 億美元的營運現金流。此外，我們以 15 億美元回購了 1,680 萬股股票，將槓桿率降至 2.35 倍，並被標準普爾和穆迪上調至 BBB+ 評級。

Looking forward to 2025, our confidence in the company's outlook remains strong, and we look forward to demonstrating this to you in the quarters and years to come.

展望2025年，我們對公司的前景依然充滿信心，並期待在未來的幾季和幾年向您證明這一點。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Pete to review the financials and the outlook for 2025. Thank you.

說完這些，我將把電話交給皮特來審查財務狀況和 2025 年的前景。謝謝。

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. Our GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $671 million or $3.56 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $112 million for the quarter or $0.60 a share. That includes lease premium amortization of $30 million, which reduced basic lease rents; maintenance rights amortization of $22 million, which reduced maintenance revenue; and maintenance rights amortization of $60 million, which increased leasing expenses.

謝謝，格斯。大家早安。我們第四季的 GAAP 淨收入為 6.71 億美元，即每股 3.56 美元。本季採購會計調整的影響為 1.12 億美元，即每股 0.60 美元。其中包括 3,000 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷，從而降低了基本租賃租金；維護權攤銷2,200萬美元，減少了維護收入；以及 6,000 萬美元的維護權攤銷，這增加了租賃費用。

During the fourth quarter, we had $168 million of recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict or $0.89 a share. This represents settlements with certain of the insurers on our C&P insurance policy. The overall tax effect of the purchase accounting adjustments and the net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict was $8 million or $0.04 a share. So taking all of that into account, our adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $624 million or $3.31 per share.

第四季度，我們因烏克蘭衝突收回了 1.68 億美元的款項，即每股 0.89 美元。這代表我們與某些保險公司就 C&P 保單達成和解。購買會計調整和與烏克蘭衝突相關的淨回收的總體稅收影響為 800 萬美元或每股 0.04 美元。因此，考慮到所有這些因素，我們第四季度的調整後淨收入為 6.24 億美元，即每股 3.31 美元。

I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results for the fourth quarter. Basic lease rents were $1.619 billion, an increase from $1.605 billion in the third quarter. Basic lease rents reflected $30 million of lease premium amortization expense, which reduces basic lease rents. Lease premium assets are amortized over the remaining term of the lease as a reduction in the basic lease rents.

我將簡要介紹影響我們第四季業績的主要因素。基本租賃租金為 16.19 億美元，高於第三季的 16.05 億美元。基本租賃租金反映了 3000 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷費用，從而降低了基本租賃租金。租賃溢價資產在租賃剩餘期限內以基本租賃租金的減少進行攤銷。

Our maintenance revenues for the fourth quarter were $106 million. That reflects $22 million in maintenance rights assets that were amortized to maintenance revenue during the quarter. In other words, maintenance revenue would have been $22 million higher or $128 million without this amortization.

我們第四季的維護收入為 1.06 億美元。這反映了本季攤提至維護收入的 2,200 萬美元維護權資產。換句話說，如果沒有這筆攤銷，維護收入將會高出 2,200 萬美元或 1.28 億美元。

Net gain on sale of assets was a record $260 million for the fourth quarter. We sold 40 of our owned assets during the quarter for total sales revenue of $869 million. That resulted in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 43% for the quarter which is equivalent to a multiple of 2.6 times book value, and that's one of the highest quarterly margins we've ever had.

第四季資產出售淨收益創歷史新高，達 2.6 億美元。本季我們出售了 40 項自有資產，總銷售收入為 8.69 億美元。這使得本季的無槓桿銷售收益達到 43%，相當於帳面價值的 2.6 倍，這是我們有史以來最高的季度利潤率之一。

As of December 31, we had $466 million worth of assets held for sale. Other income was $88 million for the quarter, which consisted primarily of interest income. Interest expense was $505 million for the fourth quarter. Leasing expenses were $214 million for the quarter, and that included $60 million of maintenance rights amortization expense.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們持有待售資產價值為 4.66 億美元。本季其他收入為 8,800 萬美元，主要包括利息收入。第四季利息支出為 5.05 億美元。本季租賃費用為 2.14 億美元，其中包括 6,000 萬美元的維護權攤銷費用。

Income tax expense was $93 million which represents an effective tax rate of 12.8% for the fourth quarter. For the full year, our effective tax rate was 14.3%, which includes around $40 million of valuation allowance releases and tax recoveries during the year. I'd also note that 2024 was the first year we were subject to the global minimum tax under Pillar 2, which increased our tax rate by 1.9% from what it otherwise would have been.

所得稅費用為 9,300 萬美元，第四季有效稅率為 12.8%。全年我們的有效稅率為 14.3%，其中包括當年約 4000 萬美元的估值準備金釋放和稅收回收。我還要指出的是，2024 年是我們根據第二支柱首次徵收全球最低稅，這使我們的稅率比原本的稅率提高了 1.9%。

On the next slide, you can see a walk of our full year earnings and EPS. And as you can see, it was a very strong year for AerCap. We had approximately $2.1 billion of GAAP net income for the year which included $195 million of net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict. That resulted in $10.79 of GAAP EPS for the year. After adjusting for the insurance recoveries as well as for purchase accounting items of $475 million, our adjusted net income was approximately $2.3 billion for the year and that equates to adjusted EPS of $12.01 per share, which is a record for AerCap.

在下一張投影片中，您可以看到我們的全年收益和每股盈餘的趨勢。如您所見，對於 AerCap 來說這是非常強勁的一年。我們今年的 GAAP 淨收入約為 21 億美元，其中包括與烏克蘭衝突相關的 1.95 億美元淨回收。這使得該年度的 GAAP EPS 達到 10.79 美元。在調整保險賠償以及 4.75 億美元的購買會計項目後，我們全年的調整後淨收入約為 23 億美元，相當於每股 12.01 美元的調整後每股收益，創下了 AerCap 的記錄。

As a result, for the full year, our GAAP return on equity was 12% and our adjusted ROE was 14%. Our operating cash flow was a record $5.4 billion for the year. That doesn't include any proceeds from Russian insurance settlements because those go through investing cash flow. It also doesn't include any gains on sale as those also go through investing cash flow.

因此，全年我們的 GAAP 股本回報率為 12%，調整後 ROE 為 14%。我們全年的經營現金流達到了創紀錄的 54 億美元。這不包括來自俄羅斯保險賠償的任何收益，因為這些收益是透過投資現金流獲得的。它也不包括任何銷售收益，因為這些收益也透過投資現金流產生。

We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of December 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $21 billion. That compares to uses of around $11 billion resulting in the next 12-month sourced usage coverage ratio of around 2 times, and that reflects excess cash coverage of around $10 billion.

我們持續保持強勁的流動性狀況。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的總流動資金來源約為 210 億美元。相較之下，使用量約為 110 億美元，導致未來 12 個月的採購使用覆蓋率約為 2 倍，這反映了約 100 億美元的超額現金覆蓋率。

Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.35 to 1, which is slightly lower than last quarter. Our operating cash flow was approximately $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter. Our secured debt-to-total assets ratio was 12% at the end of December, which is the same as last quarter, and our average cost of debt was 4.1%.

我們本季末的槓桿率為2.35比1，略低於上一季。我們第四季的經營現金流約為 13 億美元。截至 12 月底，我們的擔保債務與總資產之比為 12%，與上一季相同，平均債務成本為 4.1%。

During the fourth quarter, we bought back 3.1 million shares at an average price of $94.74 for a total of $297 million. We also paid our third quarterly dividend of $0.25 a share. Our book value per share was $94.57 as of December 31, which is an increase of 13% over the last 12 months. And that, of course, doesn't include the $0.75 a share in dividends that we paid out during the year.

第四季度，我們以平均 94.74 美元的價格回購了 310 萬股，總計 2.97 億美元。我們還支付了每股 0.25 美元的第三季股息。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的每股帳面價值為 94.57 美元，比過去 12 個月成長了 13%。當然，這還不包括我們今年派發的每股 0.75 美元的股息。

So that covers our 2024 performance. Now I'll turn to our guidance for 2025. For 2025, we're projected adjusted EPS of $8.50 to $9.50 not including any gains on sale.

這就是我們 2024 年的表現。現在我將談談我們對 2025 年的指導。到 2025 年，我們預計調整後的每股收益為 8.50 美元至 9.50 美元，不包括任何銷售收益。

On the next slide, you can see we've provided a walk of our EPS from 2024 actuals to what we expect for 2025 to call out some of the major items. In 2024, we had gains on sale of $651 million or $2.85 per share after tax. So excluding gains on sale, our adjusted EPS for 2024 was $9.16.

在下一張投影片中，您可以看到我們提供了從 2024 年實際值到 2025 年預期值的 EPS 走勢圖，其中列出了一些主要項目。2024 年，我們的銷售收益為 6.51 億美元，即稅後每股收益 2.85 美元。因此，不包括銷售收益，我們 2024 年的調整後每股收益為 9.16 美元。

In 2024, we had a high level of other income, which was driven in part by high cash balances as well as some one-time items. So in 2025, we're expecting other income to be lower by about $0.35 a share. As I mentioned, we recognized around $40 million of discrete tax benefits in 2024, which reduced our effective tax rate for the year. Without these benefits, our effective tax rate would have been around 16%. We aren't projecting any tax benefits in 2025, so that's a headwind of around $0.20 a share in 2025 compared to '24.

2024 年，我們的其他收入水準很高，部分原因是現金餘額較高以及一些一次性項目。因此，到 2025 年，我們預計其他收入將下降約 0.35 美元/股。正如我所提到的，我們在 2024 年確認了約 4000 萬美元的單獨稅收優惠，這降低了我們當年的有效稅率。如果沒有這些福利，我們的實際稅率將在 16% 左右。我們預計 2025 年不會有任何稅收優惠，因此與 24 年相比，2025 年每股收益將下降約 0.20 美元。

Those are the major items to call out. The last column includes everything else, including leasing, maintenance, share repurchases, et cetera, and we expect the net effect of all of these will be about $0.40 positive in 2025. So that takes us to the EPS range of $8.50 to $9.50 for 2025, again, not including any gains on sale.

這些都是需要強調的主要事項。最後一列包括其他所有內容，包括租賃、維護、股票回購等，我們預計所有這些的淨效應在 2025 年將為正值約 0.40 美元。因此，到 2025 年，我們的每股盈餘將達到 8.50 美元至 9.50 美元之間，同樣不包括任何銷售收益。

On the next slide, you can see a breakdown of our projected income statement for 2025, showing the major line items. For the full year, '25, we expect to have lease revenue of around $6.6 billion, maintenance revenues of around $700 million, and other income of around $200 million for total revenue of about $7.5 billion.

在下一張投影片中，您可以看到我們 2025 年預計損益表的細目分類，其中顯示了主要項目。就 25 年全年而言，我們預計租賃收入約為 66 億美元，維護收入約為 7 億美元，其他收入約為 2 億美元，總收入約為 75 億美元。

We've assumed that we'll have cash CapEx of around $5.6 billion for the year and asset sales of around $2 billion. As you know, these figures can vary significantly, CapEx is largely dependent on OEM deliveries, and sales volume depends on the demand for assets and the time it takes to close those transactions.

我們預計今年的現金資本支出約為 56 億美元，資產銷售額約為 20 億美元。如您所知，這些數字可能會有很大差異，資本支出很大程度上取決於 OEM 交付，而銷售取決於資產需求和完成這些交易所需的時間。

We're projecting depreciation and amortization of around $2.7 billion for the year and interest expense of around $2.1 billion. We expect leasing expenses, SG&A, and other expenses to total around $1.3 billion for the year.

我們預計今年的折舊和攤提約為 27 億美元，利息支出約為 21 億美元。我們預計今年的租賃費用、銷售、一般及行政費用以及其他費用總計約為 13 億美元。

On tax, we've assumed an effective tax rate of 16.5% and which, as I mentioned, assumes no specific tax releases as we had in 2024. And that also reflects the impact of global minimum tax under Pillar 2 which results in a top-up tax for jurisdictions like Ireland where the company is paying an effective tax rate of less than 15%.

關於稅收，我們假設有效稅率為 16.5%，並且正如我所提到的，假設沒有像 2024 年那樣的特定稅收減免。這也反映了第二支柱下全球最低稅率的影響，即對愛爾蘭等司法管轄區徵收補充稅，因為這些地區的公司實際繳納的稅率低於 15%。

In 2025, we expect to recognize earnings around $100 million to $150 million from our equity investments, and that's primarily our engine leasing joint venture, SES, but it also includes some other smaller equity investments. Altogether, that gives us projected GAAP net income of around $1.3 billion for the year.

2025 年，我們預計從股權投資中獲得約 1 億至 1.5 億美元的收益，這主要是我們的引擎租賃合資企業 SES，但也包括一些其他較小的股權投資。總體而言，我們預計今年的 GAAP 淨收入約為 13 億美元。

After purchase accounting adjustments of around $300 million after tax, we expect to have adjusted net income of around $1.6 billion for the year. That gives us an adjusted EPS range of $8.50 to $9.50 for the year, again, not including any gains on sale.

經過約 3 億美元的稅後購買會計調整後，我們預計今年的調整後淨收入約為 16 億美元。這使得我們今年的調整後每股收益範圍達到 8.50 美元至 9.50 美元，同樣不包括任何銷售收益。

Overall, AerCap continued to perform very strongly during the fourth quarter. As we look out into 2025, we continue to see a strong environment for leasing, which you can see from our utilization rate of 99%. It also continues to be a strong environment for aircraft sales, and you can see that reflected in the record level of gain on sale in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2024.

總體而言，AerCap 在第四季度持續表現強勁。展望 2025 年，我們將繼續看到強勁的租賃環境，從我們 99% 的利用率就可以看出這一點。飛機銷售環境依然強勁，您可以從第四季和 2024 年全年創紀錄的銷售成長中看到這一點。

We're continuing to generate strong cash flows that in turn result in greater profitability and more financial flexibility, and we're deploying capital towards attractive aircraft and engine opportunities. We also continue to return capital to shareholders. Over the past two years, we bought back over $4 billion worth of stock, which is almost 30% of our market cap at the beginning of that period.

我們將繼續產生強勁的現金流，從而帶來更高的盈利能力和更大的財務靈活性，並且我們正在將資本部署到有吸引力的飛機和發動機機會上。我們也繼續向股東返還資本。在過去兩年裡，我們回購了價值超過 40 億美元的股票，幾乎相當於我們該時期初期市值的 30%。

And today, we've announced a new share repurchase program of $1 billion, which is our largest program ever. We've also announced today an 8% increase to our quarterly dividend, taking it to $0.27 a share. All of these actions reflect our strong confidence in the value of AerCap stock and in the company's outlook for the future.

今天，我們宣布了一項價值 10 億美元的新股票回購計劃，這是我們有史以來最大的計劃。我們今天也宣布將季度股息提高 8%，達到每股 0.27 美元。所有這些舉措都體現了我們對 AerCap 股票價值和公司未來前景的堅定信心。

And with that, operator, we can now open up the call for Q&A.

接線生，現在我們可以開始問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions) Hillary Cacanando, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）德意志銀行的希拉蕊·卡卡南多。

So you talked about different sets of aircraft buyers in the secondary market, which is very interesting. So I just wanted to get your view on what happens to the sales environment when the OEMs start producing aircraft on time, which I understand it's probably a couple of years from now.

所以你談到了二級市場上不同的飛機買家，這非常有趣。因此，我只是想了解一下，當原始設備製造商開始按時生產飛機時，銷售環境會發生什麼變化，我知道這大概還需要幾年時間。

But is it your view that the sales environment will remain robust, but maybe the mix changes to maybe more financial buyers and product buyers buying the aircraft versus the airline buying in the secondary market? Is that the right way to think about it? Or do you think the sales environment is that used car if the supply gets back to normal?

但是您是否認為銷售環境將保持強勁，但組合可能會發生變化，更多的是金融買家和產品買家購買飛機，而不是航空公司在二級市場購買？這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者您認為如果供應恢復正常，二手車的銷售環境會如何？

Thank you, Hillary. Well, first of all, I do believe there will be a shortage of aircraft for years to come as I have said on several calls and at our Capital Markets Day. So you're right that eventually, of course, the airframers will start producing more aircraft. I still think that several years away before they get to their targets.

謝謝你，希拉蕊。首先，我確實相信未來幾年將會出現飛機短缺的情況，正如我在幾次電話會議和資本市場日上所說的那樣。所以你說得對，最終飛機製造商當然會開始生產更多的飛機。我仍然認為他們還需要幾年時間才能實現他們的目標。

But if you go back to our Capital Markets Day, where we highlighted the challenges of the aircraft that are being produced today, that they do not spend as much time in service as their predecessors because they are more fragile, they spend more time in the shop. Therefore, I expect to see continued strength out of necessity for used aircraft values well into the future.

但如果你回顧我們的資本市場日，我們強調了當今生產的飛機所面臨的挑戰，即它們的服役時間不如前輩那麼多，因為它們更脆弱，它們在車間花費的時間更多。因此，我預計未來二手飛機的價值將因需求而持續走強。

From our perspective, what you will see, though, is that our portfolio is 75% new tech at the moment. And I'm sure over the course of the next few years, that will get closer and closer to 95, 98. Is that okay?

從我們的角度來看，您會看到，目前我們的投資組合中有 75% 是新技術。我相信在未來幾年內，這個數字會越來越接近 95、98。可以嗎？

Yeah. Great. That's really helpful. And then just a quick question on [leasing] expense. It seems a bit elevated in the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you could just talk about what drove that and if this could be like a new run rate going forward or no?

是的。偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後我簡單問一下關於[租賃]費用的問題。第四季似乎有所提升。我想知道您是否可以談談是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及這是否會成為未來的新運行率？

Sure, Hillary. So it was slightly higher in the fourth quarter, but it's been running at maybe $20 million higher or so than other quarters this year. I think it's a reasonable run rate now. I mean, as I've said in the past, leasing expenses moves around depending on the timing of events. So it's hard to read very much into any one quarter, but I think it will probably stay roughly around these levels in 2025.

當然，希拉蕊。因此，第四季度的金額略高，但今年可能比其他季度高出 2,000 萬美元左右。我認為現在的運行率是合理的。我的意思是，正如我過去所說的那樣，租賃費用會根據事件發生的時間而變化。因此，很難對任何一個季度做出深入解讀，但我認為到 2025 年，它可能會大致保持在這些水平附近。

Okay. Is it due to like aircraft transitioning costs or just from selling them or anything specific that you could --

好的。是因為飛機的轉運成本，還是只是因為出售飛機，或其他任何具體原因，--

It's just a combination of all of the things that go through, really. So it's mainly -- yeah, it's the timing of all these events that happen. So that's why it will bounce around from quarter to quarter. But overall, yeah, I mean, you can see like I think that -- I think like $150 million a quarter is a reasonable run rate.

事實上，這只是所有經歷的事情的組合。所以主要是——是的，這是所有這些事件發生的時間。這就是為什麼它會在每個季度之間波動。但總的來說，是的，我的意思是，你可以看到我的想法——我認為每季 1.5 億美元是一個合理的運行率。

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑米貝克。

I have a question on lease extensions. I think it was slide 5 in the deck. So of the aircraft that are not being extended, how many are actually transitioning? So they're at an airline. They are not being parted out. They're not being extended, basically kind of the old-fashioned model of dialing around, hey, do you want to plane? And the reason we ask is that the net margin did tick down slightly year on year. We're curious if transitioning aircraft might have been a contributing factor.

我對租約延期有疑問。我認為它是幻燈片中的第 5 張。那麼，在未延長服役期限的飛機中，有多少架真正進行了過渡？他們在一家航空公司。他們並沒有分開。它們沒有被擴展，基本上是一種老式的撥號模式，嘿，你想飛行嗎？我們詢問的原因是淨利潤率比去年同期確實略有下降。我們很好奇飛機的轉換是否是促成因素。

Well, a couple of things. There are very few aircraft that transition. And at the moment, I can think of maybe a handful throughout the year. There's a few more we try and pull them out because we can know we can get higher rates elsewhere.

嗯，有幾件事。很少有飛機能夠進行這種轉變。目前，我大概能想到全年可能有這麼幾隻。我們嘗試再推出一些，因為我們知道在其他地方可以獲得更高的利率。

As it relates to net spread, though, Jamie, the key there is we do not manage the business to net spread. We manage it to EPS and ROE. And that ROE number was 14% after tax this year, which is industry-leading by a country mile.

然而，就其與淨利差而言，傑米，關鍵在於我們不會根據淨利差來管理業務。我們根據 EPS 和 ROE 進行管理。今年的稅後 ROE 為 14%，遙遙領先業界。

Now I mentioned why we don't manage the net spread. Of course, if all the proceeds I've taken -- if I never sold those older assets, I'd have higher net spread. I have a higher risk business, and I'd have lower earnings per share. If I did sell those assets, and just pay down debt, I'd have higher net spread and lower EPS. So when we -- every dollar this company generates, we allocate it in the way that drives ROE for the shareholders and EPS.

現在我提到了為什麼我們不管理淨利差。當然，如果我獲得的所有收益——如果我從未出售那些舊資產，我的淨利差就會更高。我的業務風險較高，每股盈餘較低。如果我確實出售這些資產並償還債務，我的淨利差就會更高，而每股盈餘會更低。因此，當我們——這家公司創造的每一美元，我們都會以推動股東 ROE 和 EPS 的方式進行分配。

The only line in the P&L that matters to me or the balance sheet anywhere else, I don't care about growth. I don't care about anything except making money for the shareholders at the bottom line. And that's what the only line that really matters to us.

損益表中唯一對我重要的行，或其他任何地方的資產負債表，我都不關心成長。我什麼都不關心，除了最後為股東賺錢。這對我們來說才是真正重要的唯一一句話。

Understood. And thank you for that. And then second on Russia. Given what you've written down and what you've now received, where does that bring us in terms of the percentage of the recovery. Actually, let me put it more precisely, sorry.

明白了。對此我表示感謝。其次是俄羅斯。考慮到您所寫下的內容和您現在收到的內容，就恢復百分比而言，這會為我們帶來什麼？實際上，讓我說得更準確一些，抱歉。

Of the amount you've recovered, what percent is that of the original book value, not necessarily what you wrote down, but the original book value that you estimate has now been recovered? Thanks in advance, and I'll see you on the 12th, guys.

在您收回的金額中，原始帳面價值的百分比是多少，不一定是您減記的金額，而是您估計的原始帳面價值現在已經收回？提前謝謝大家，12號見。

Well, so the write-down, Jamie, was about $2.7 billion pretax, that was net of some offsets that we had because we released maintenance. So call that $3.2 billion that we had a book value there. So we recovered $1.3 billion in 2023 roughly, and another $200 million in 2024. So that gives you an idea of where we stand relative to that initial book value.

嗯，傑米，減記金額約為 27 億美元稅前，這是扣除我們因解除維護而產生的一些抵消額後的淨額。因此，我們稱其帳面價值為 32 億美元。因此，我們在 2023 年大約收回了 13 億美元，並在 2024 年又收回了 2 億美元。這樣您就可以了解我們相對於初始帳面價值的立場。

Stephen Trent, Citi.

花旗銀行的史蒂芬‧特倫特。

Just some quick ones for me. The first is when we think about that very attractive BBB credit rating. Do you see any benefit from maybe pushing that rating higher in terms of thinking about net spreads?

對我來說只是一些簡單的。首先，我們考慮一下非常有吸引力的 BBB 信用評級。從淨利差的角度來看，您是否認為提高該評級可能會帶來好處？

Well, Stephen, so as you know, we're BBB+ with two of the rating agencies on positive outlook with Fitch. We'd hope to see that converted to BBB+ with Fitch as well, which would be helpful.

嗯，史蒂芬，如你所知，我們在兩家評級機構中都獲得了 BBB+ 評級，惠譽也對我們的前景持樂觀態度。我們希望看到惠譽將其評級轉換為 BBB+，這將會很有幫助。

And look, I think that this has been a good trajectory for us over the last few years and in recognition of the resilience of the business and the strong performance and the outperformance in terms of cash flows and all of that.

而且，我認為，這對我們來說是過去幾年的一個良好軌跡，也是對業務彈性、強勁表現以及現金流等方面的優異表現的認可。

So could it go higher? It could go higher, but we'll have to see where that goes. I think that our spreads at the moment, as you know, are at historically tight levels, right? They're around 80 basis points on a five-year. So that's very good.

那麼它還能再高嗎？它可能會更高，但我們必須看看它會達到什麼程度。我認為，正如您所知，我們目前的利差處於歷史較低水平，對嗎？五年期利率約 80 個基點。這非常好。

How much benefit would we get from getting up to A-? Hard to say. But look, certainly, we'd welcome higher ratings, that would be a positive.

達到 A- 能為我們帶來多少好處？很難說。但是，當然，我們歡迎更高的收視率，這將是一件積極的事情。

Okay. Very helpful. And just an industry question for you. And I know this doesn't exactly pertain to you guys. But looking at the uncertainty in the US today with respect to potential tariffs. Are you seeing anything in the market that might suggest sort of US-based airlines are pulling back a little bit on sale-leaseback transactions, just given the having to potentially pay a tariff or whatever they purchase even if they sell it back to a lesser oust love your view on that?

好的。非常有幫助。這只是向您問一個行業問題。我知道這並不完全適用於你們。但看看今天美國在潛在關稅上的不確定性。您是否看到市場上有什麼跡象表明美國的航空公司正在減少售後回租交易，因為即使他們把購買的商品賣給較小的航空公司，他們也可能需要支付關稅或購買任何商品，您對此有何看法？

Thanks, Stephen. No, we haven't observed any change in behavior from any airline as yet in any part of the world. I think things are far too uncertain to commit to a course of action for anyone at this point in time.

謝謝，史蒂芬。不，我們還沒有觀察到世界任何地方的任何航空公司的行為有任何變化。我認為，目前情況太不確定，任何人都無法採取行動。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

So first, I just want to confirm the core EPS guide contemplates the use of the $1 billion buyback and nothing incremental above that. And then just more broadly, you're well below your leverage target with the potential to go even lower with additional Ukraine recoveries. Can you maybe just talk about how you think about moving back to a more optimal leverage level and overall time period?

因此，首先，我只想確認核心每股盈餘指南考慮使用 10 億美元的回購，並且不會超過這個金額進行增量回購。更廣泛地說，你的槓桿率遠低於目標，而且隨著烏克蘭經濟進一步復甦，你的槓桿率可能會更低。您能否談談您如何看待回到更優化的槓桿水平和整體時間段？

Sure. So thanks, Terry. So on your first question, yes, what that guide is based on is the utilization of our remaining amount under the existing authorization, which is $164 million today, and the new program of $1 billion, nothing beyond that.

當然。所以謝謝你，特里。因此，關於您的第一個問題，是的，該指南所依據的是現有授權下的剩餘金額的使用情況，即今天的 1.64 億美元，以及新計劃的 10 億美元，僅此而已。

And then look, in terms of where we are. So our leverage ratio now is [2.35, 1], which is relatively low, as you said, below target. As things go forward, as the year progresses, I mean, well, obviously, as you've seen, we've deployed lots of capital. We've deployed lots of capital both in terms of returning capital to shareholders. And I referenced in my prepared remarks, over the last two years, we bought back almost 30% of the market cap -- it's hard to find any other company that has done that.

然後看看我們現在處於什麼位置。所以我們現在的槓桿率是[2.35, 1]，這個水平比較低，正如你所說，低於目標。隨著事情的進展，隨著時間的推移，我的意思是，顯然，正如你所看到的，我們已經投入了大量資金。我們在向股東返還資本方面投入了大量資金。我在準備好的演講中提到，在過去兩年中，我們回購了近 30% 的市值——很難找到其他公司做到這一點。

But by the same token, we're also looking at opportunities to grow, and we've seen good attractive opportunities to do that over the past year, which is where we deploy capital. So just have to wait and see how that happens. But we are deploying it in significant ways. It's just this business generates a huge amount of capital, a huge amount of cash flow, as you've seen.

但同樣，我們也在尋找成長機會，過去一年來，我們看到了很好的、有吸引力的成長機會，我們也正在向這些機會投入資本。所以只需等待，看看事情會如何發展。但我們正在以重要方式部署它。如您所見，這項業務會產生大量資本和現金流。

Got it. And then I may have missed it, but can you maybe just impact the gain on sale margin of 43% this quarter a bit? And as we kind of look forward to this year, any color you can provide on how we should think about the margin as we kind of factor in the demand you're seeing from the different types of buyers you mentioned? And also just the mix of assets you have earmarked for sale.

知道了。然後我可能錯過了，但你能不能對本季 43% 的銷售利潤率產生一點影響？當我們展望今年時，您能否提供一些細節，說明我們應該如何考慮利潤率，因為我們會考慮到您提到的不同類型的買家的需求？還有您指定出售的資產組合。

Yeah. So the -- well, we've seen a strong margin pretty much across the board, across all asset types that we've been selling aircraft and engines. So it hasn't really been driven by any one area in particular. As we look out, I don't think the mix is going to change significantly in 2025.

是的。所以，嗯，我們看到，在我們銷售的所有資產類型中，利潤率幾乎都很高。因此，它實際上並不是由某個特定領域所推動的。從長遠來看，我認為到 2025 年，這種結構不會發生重大變化。

Look, obviously, the gains on sale were very high this year, 43% in the fourth quarter, 27% for the full year. That's much higher than normal. I do think that we will probably be above the long-term averages, but how far above, it's hard to say.

顯然，今年的銷售收益非常高，第四季為 43%，全年為 27%。這比正常水平高得多。我確實認為我們可能會高於長期平均水平，但高出多少還很難說。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. Pete, it feels like your guidance is pretty conservative and obviously, conservative is better than not. And it's always been your kind of approach. But can you maybe just unpack the $6.6 billion that you've got for 2025 in lease rents, right? I mean if you look at the fourth quarter, just kind of simply multiply that by 4, you're at $6.5 million.

偉大的。皮特，感覺你的指導相當保守，顯然保守總比不保守好。這始終是你的方法。但是，您能否將 2025 年的 66 億美元租賃租金拿出來算一算呢？我的意思是，如果你看一下第四季度，只需將其乘以 4，就會得到 650 萬美元。

And given the commentary from the last couple of questions during the call about opportunities out there, whether it's for lease renewals at the same or higher levels as well as kind of potential sale leasebacks and other things, can you just talk a little bit about what's inherent in that $6.6 billion?

並且考慮到電話會議中最後幾個問題對存在的機會的評論，無論是相同還是更高水平的租約續約，還是潛在的售後回租和其他事情，您能否稍微談談這 66 億美元的含義？

Sure, Moshe. So really, what we're expecting is kind of a steady progression of that a gradual increase quarter-by-quarter of the basic lease rents. And that's really due to we are putting leases in place at higher rates now given the good environment, but it takes a while for that to roll through the portfolio. And so I would expect the steady progression to continue throughout next year and beyond really.

當然，摩西。因此，我們實際上預計基本租賃租金將穩步逐季逐步增加。這確實是因為我們在良好的環境下以更高的利率實施租賃，但這需要一段時間才能在投資組合中推廣。因此，我預計這種穩定的進展將持續到明年及以後。

Great. And one of the things that I think Gus alluded to that the planes are spending less time in service, and that's kind of been a benefit for your engine leasing business. It's not something that you've talked about much and kind of looking at the joint venture income, I mean I think you've only got $100 million in 2025. Just talk a little bit about the engine leasing business and your outlook for it in '25?

偉大的。我認為 Gus 提到的一件事是飛機的服役時間減少了，這對你們的引擎租賃業務來說是一種好處。這不是您經常談論的事情，從合資企業的收入來看，我認為到 2025 年您只能獲得 1 億美元。請簡單談談引擎租賃業務以及您對 25 年該業務的展望？

Sure. Maybe I'll -- I can comment on that line item, the guidance, and then Gus can talk about it generally. So if you look, Moshe, in 2024, the net income from equity method investments was $159 million, and our guidance was $100 million to $150 million. So it is close to that level of 2024.

當然。也許我可以——對該專案、指導進行評論，然後 Gus 可以對此進行一般性討論。因此，Moshe，如果你看一下，到 2024 年，權益法投資的淨收入為 1.59 億美元，而我們的預期是 1 億至 1.5 億美元。因此它接近2024年的水平。

The one thing that's worth noting here is that as we've done some of these new engine deals and SES has done these new engine deals, we've changed the terms of them so that rather than receiving monthly maintenance from CFM, we are receiving full life engines at the end of that lease.

這裡值得注意的是，當我們完成一些新引擎交易並且 SES 也完成這些新引擎交易時，我們改變了它們的條款，這樣我們就不再從 CFM 獲得每月的維護，而是在租賃期結束時獲得全壽命引擎。

So they are shopping the engines and returning them to us in full life condition. We think that's a better economic result, frankly. But what it means is you're not recognizing that maintenance revenue during the course of the lease. You've got a better engine at the end of the lease but it's lower monthly maintenance revenue, basically. And that's what explains that line item.

因此，他們購買引擎並將其完好無損地返還給我們。坦白說，我們認為這是一個更好的經濟結果。但這意味著您在租賃期間沒有確認維護收入。租賃期結束時，您會得到更好的發動機，但基本上每月的維護收入會更低。這就是對該項目做出的解釋。

As you rightly point out, I mean, the engine business, these are very desirable assets, and it is a unique position that we occupy in the industry.

正如您正確指出的那樣，我的意思是，引擎業務，這些都是非常理想的資產，而且我們在行業中佔據著獨特的地位。

Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

So I know we'll get (technical difficulty) these figures are going to change once we get your 20-F later this morning as you have renegotiated some of these already. But as of the 2023 20-F, I think you had 131 aircraft between 2025 and 2026 with leases expiring that's about 13% of your year-end 2024 passenger fleet.

所以我知道我們會得到（技術難題）這些數字將會改變，一旦我們今天上午晚些時候收到您的 20-F，因為您已經重新協商了其中的一些。但截至 2023 年 20-F，我認為您在 2025 年至 2026 年期間有 131 架飛機的租約到期，約佔 2024 年底客運機隊的 13%。

Can you just help us think through what percentage of these are COVID era leases? And what the upside to lease rates could be for these aircraft to COVID ones as they move to new leases at today's rates?

您能否幫助我們思考其中有多少比例是 COVID 時代的租約？當這些飛機以今天的租金價格轉為新租約時，相對於受疫情影響的飛機，租賃費率可能有哪些上漲空間？

The specific numbers of aircraft, if you just think generally about our fleet, the average lease term is six to seven years. So that's what you have capable of repricing in any given year. And so that's how I would think about it. If you were to look at all the leases to reprice, that's the term it will happen over a seven-year period.

飛機的具體數量，如果你只是大致考慮我們的機隊，平均租賃期限為六到七年。這就是您在任何一年都能夠重新定價的。這就是我的想法。如果您要查看所有需要重新定價的租約，那麼這個期限將在七年內發生。

And Catie, maybe it's helpful just to -- if you look at the COVID era leases just generally, we expect those to run off pretty much about [1.6] a year from now going out until, say, 2031, 2032. So it takes a while for that to come through, but it will be a tailwind for us going forward.

Catie，也許這只是有幫助的——如果你總體上看一下 COVID 時代的租約，我們預計從現在開始到 2031 年、2032 年，這些租約每年的流失量大約為 [1.6]。因此，實現這一目標需要一段時間，但這將成為我們前進的順風。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just another one on the engines. You announced another $2 billion in engine commitments today. Can you walk us through what is driving the incremental investment in engines? Of course, the gap of supply and demand in that market is well documented.

好的。偉大的。然後也許還有另一個關於引擎的問題。今天你們宣布了另外 20 億美元的引擎承諾。您能否向我們介紹一下推動引擎投資增加的因素？當然，該市場的供需差距是有據可查的。

So is it that the economics are better in engines and aircraft? Or is it just like backlog for aircraft is too long and today's pricing on buying engines make more sense than aircraft from a turn of capital standpoint? Just any thoughts on the comparison of the economics between engine and aircraft and why the incremental dollars are going to engines today would be very helpful.

那麼發動機和飛機的經濟性是否更好呢？或者只是因為飛機的積壓訂單太長，從資本週轉的角度來看，今天購買引擎的定價比購買飛機更合理？任何關於發動機和飛機之間的經濟比較以及為什麼今天增量資金都用於發動機的想法都會非常有幫助。

Sure. Well, I think, Catie, you've got to look at our position in the engine business as a partner to the OEM providing part of the aftersales product that the engine OEM gives to its customers. So in many respects, the engine leasing businesses that we have, one is SCS, one is in-house is a logistics business, where you are moving vast numbers of engines every week around the world at the instruction of the OEM.

當然。好吧，我認為，Catie，你必須看看我們在引擎業務中的地位，作為 OEM 的合作夥伴，為引擎 OEM 提供其客戶提供的部分售後產品。因此，在許多方面，我們擁有的發動機租賃業務，一個是 SCS，一個是內部物流業務，您每週都會根據 OEM 的指示在世界各地運輸大量發動機。

So it's a different type of business to leasing. It's a different payment structure. And it is a position where we have a unique infrastructure that's been built up over candidly 30 years since that business began to have the infrastructure around the world to rapidly move engines from if we get a call on Friday and we're told by the OEM, you need to take one engine back from New York, another one has to get to Tokyo, one more has to get the Saigon, take one back from Delhi.

所以這是一種不同於租賃的業務類型。這是一種不同的支付結構。而我們擁有一個獨特的基礎設施，坦白說，自從這項業務開始以來，我們已經建立了 30 多年的基礎設施，可以快速地移動發動機，如果我們在周五接到 OEM 的電話，告訴我們，你需要從紐約帶回一台發動機，另一台必須送到東京，還有一台必須送到西貢，再從德里帶回一台。

That's what that business does. So it's a slightly different type of business or significantly different business from a straightforward financing business. And so our ability there is unique and we add value to the OEMs after sales service. So it's a very different type of business. And when you get the opportunity to grow that, that's where we want to grow.

這就是該企業所做的事情。因此，這是一種與簡單的融資業務略有不同的業務類型，或者說是有很大區別的業務。因此，我們在這方面的能力是獨一無二的，我們為 OEM 的售後服務增加了價值。所以這是一種非常不同的業務類型。當你有機會發展這一點時，這就是我們想要發展的地方。

Great. And maybe I could sneak one more quick follow-up to an earlier question in a modeling one. Pete, am I right to assume that the $8.50 EPS does not include any buybacks? Just maybe this math is too simple, but dividing $1.6 billion in net income by $8.50 gets you to your 4Q share count. So any help there?

偉大的。也許我可以偷偷地在建模中快速跟進之前的問題。皮特，我是否可以假設 8.50 美元的每股盈餘不包括任何回購？也許這個數學計算太簡單了，但將 16 億美元的淨收入除以 8.50 美元就可以得出第四季的股票數量。那麼有什麼幫助嗎？

And then just on the repurchase authorization more generally, it's your largest ever announced. Should we think of that as a comment on buyback piecing? Or what else drove the large announcement?

然後就回購授權而言，這是你們有史以來宣布的最大規模的回購授權。我們是否應該將其視為對回購的評論？或者還有什麼因素促使了這個重大聲明？

Sure. Well, I would just think of it as kind of at the midpoint of that range, that's assuming that we're fully deploying that -- the full authorization. So obviously, one way to think about the low end is we're not deploying it fully or we just have more other contingencies in there, right? So that's -- it's really just a range built around that midpoint is probably the best way to think about it from a modeling standpoint.

當然。好吧，我只是把它想像成這個範圍的中間點，假設我們完全部署了它——完全授權。因此，顯然，考慮低端的一種方式是，我們沒有完全部署它，或者我們只是在其中有更多的其他應急措施，對嗎？所以這實際上只是圍繞中點構建的一個範圍，這可能是從建模角度思考它的最佳方式。

And then in terms of the pace of buybacks, as I kind of referenced before, look, this is -- we're only assuming that for now. But if we can outperform these projections, if we get more excess capital coming in, then we'll have to figure out what to do with that. And certainly, return of capital to shareholders has been one of the key ways we've done that.

然後就回購速度而言，正如我之前提到的，看，這是——我們目前只是假設。但如果我們能夠超越這些預測，如果我們獲得更多的過剩資本，那麼我們就必須弄清楚如何處理這些資本。當然，向股東返還資本是我們實現這一目標的關鍵方式之一。

So I think it's reasonable to assume that we would continue. But obviously, we look at all opportunities that are available. Sure.

因此我認為，我們有理由相信我們會繼續下去。但顯然，我們會考慮所有可用的機會。當然。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Kelly, at this time, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。凱利先生，現在我將把會議交還給您，請您發表任何補充演講或結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our full year earnings call, and we look forward to talking to you in the coming months. Thanks very much.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家參加我們的全年收益電話會議，我們期待在未來幾個月與您交談。非常感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。