AerCap Holdings NV (AER) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the AerCap's Q4 2025 financial results. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website.

大家好，歡迎閱讀 AerCap 2025 年第四季財務業績報告。今天的會議正在錄音，會後將在公司網站上提供文字稿。

At this time I'd like to turn the conference over to Brian Canniffe, Group Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我謹將會議交給集團財務主管布萊恩‧坎尼夫。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and hello everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly; and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas.

謝謝接線員，大家好。歡迎參加我們2025年第四季電話會議。今天陪同我的是我們的執行長安格斯凱利；以及我們的財務長皮特尤哈斯。

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

在今天的電話會議開始之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議中一些並非歷史事實的陳述可能是前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果或事件與此類陳述中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。

AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that arise after this call. Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated February 6, 2026.

除法律規定的義務外，AerCap 不承擔任何義務公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明，以反映本次電話會議之後出現的未來事件、資訊或情況。有關可能對業績產生重大影響的問題的更多信息，請參閱 AerCap 於 2026 年 2 月 6 日發布的收益報告。

A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q&A.

財報發布稿和電話會議簡報可在我們的網站 aercap.com 上查閱。本次電話會議對外開放，並在 aercap.com 上進行同步網路直播，會議內容將存檔以供回放。我們很快就會進行收益報告，並在最後留出時間進行問答環節。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

I will now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

現在我將把通話轉交給安格斯凱利。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. This was a record year for AerCap with exceptional financial and operating performance, driven by disciplined execution across all of our business lines. In 2025, we reported record GAAP net income of $3.8 billion or $21.30 per share and adjusted net income of $2.7 billion or $15.37 per share. Full year revenues reached an all-time high of $8.5 billion while sales volumes totaled a record $3.9 billion.

感謝您參加我們2025年第四季財報電話會議。對於 AerCap 而言，這是創紀錄的一年，財務和營運表現都非常出色，這得益於我們所有業務線的嚴格執行。2025 年，我們公佈了創紀錄的 GAAP 淨收入 38 億美元，即每股 21.30 美元；調整後淨收入為 27 億美元，即每股 15.37 美元。全年營收達到創紀錄的 85 億美元，銷售額總計達到創紀錄的 39 億美元。

During the year, we had cash CapEx of $6.1 billion and we generated $5.4 billion of operating cash flow for the full year 2025. Building on these record results, we returned $2.6 billion of capital to our shareholders last year, our highest annual amount ever through the repurchase of approximately 22.1 million shares and the payment of quarterly dividends.

本年度，我們的現金資本支出為 61 億美元，並為 2025 年全年創造了 54 億美元的營運現金流。憑藉這些創紀錄的業績，我們去年向股東返還了 26 億美元的資本，這是我們有史以來最高的年度金額，返還方式為回購約 2,210 萬股股票和支付季度股息。

At the same time, we strengthened our balance sheet, resulting in a credit rating upgrade from Fitch and a net debt to equity level of 2.1x at year end. We received $1.5 billion of insurance and other recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict in 2025 in large part due to the successful court judgment in June.

同時，我們加強了資產負債表，使得惠譽提高了我們的信用評級，並在年底實現了淨債務權益比 2.1 倍。2025 年，我們因烏克蘭衝突獲得了 15 億美元的保險賠償和其他賠償，這主要歸功於 6 月法院的成功判決。

This brings total pre-tax recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict since 2023 to approximately $3 billion, which exceeds the net charge of $2.7 billion that we recognized in 2022. These key achievements underscore the strength of our company and the value we deliver to you, our shareholders, every single day.

這使得自 2023 年以來與烏克蘭衝突相關的稅前追回款項總額達到約 30 億美元，超過了我們在 2022 年確認的 27 億美元的淨支出。這些重大成就凸顯了我們公司的實力以及我們每天為股東創造的價值。

As we look to the year ahead, our outlook remains strong and that is why we are announcing an adjusted EPS range of $12 to $13 per share for 2026, not including any gains on asset sales. We have also increased our quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share. This is on top of the new $1 billion share repurchase program we announced in December.

展望未來一年，我們的前景仍然強勁，因此我們宣布 2026 年調整後每股收益範圍為 12 至 13 美元，不包括任何資產出售收益。我們也將季度股息提高至每股0.40美元。這是在我們去年 12 月宣布的 10 億美元股票回購計畫之外的另一項舉措。

Moving to business activity during the year. Ongoing secular trends continue to underpin the strength of aviation assets globally. Demand remains robust with recent industry-wide load factors at record highs while delivery delays and maintenance backlogs have kept supply constrained.

轉入年內業務活動。持續的長期趨勢持續支撐著全球航空資產的強勁勢頭。需求依然強勁，近期整個產業的載貨率均創歷史新高，但交貨延遲和維護積壓導致供應受限。

To that point, it is encouraging to see increases in OEM production rates in recent months, which should start to alleviate some of the backlog for new aircraft. That said, we do not expect to see a normalization of the supply demand imbalance until sustained higher monthly production rates are achieved.

令人鼓舞的是，近幾個月來，OEM廠商的生產率有所提高，這應該可以緩解新飛機的一些積壓訂單。也就是說，我們預期只有在持續提高每月產量之後，供需失衡的情況才會恢復正常。

As I have said before, aircraft manufacturing is a complex industrial process and production surprises to the upside simply do not occur. So while demand dynamics may evolve, we remain confident that the current structural shortage of aircraft will persist at least through the end of this decade.

正如我之前所說，飛機製造是一個複雜的工業過程，生產方面出現意外好轉的情況根本不會發生。因此，儘管需求動態可能會發生變化，但我們仍然相信，目前飛機結構性短缺的局面至少會持續到本世紀末。

Against this backdrop, in 2025, we executed 705 transactions, positioning AerCap to capitalize on these favorable market conditions. This included the sale of 189 assets delivering a gain on sale margin of 27%, or 2x the book equity on our owned assets. The high volume of sales and consistently strong margins underscore the persistent demand we are seeing for our assets and our conservative book values.

在此背景下，2025 年，我們完成了 705 筆交易，使 AerCap 能夠充分利用這些有利的市場條件。這其中包括出售 189 項資產，實現了 27% 的銷售利潤率，相當於我們自有資產帳面權益的 2 倍。銷售額高企且利潤率持續強勁，凸顯了市場對我們資產和保守帳面價值的持續需求。

It is worth mentioning that aircraft sales were particularly elevated last year. We sold 108 owned aircraft at an average age of 15 years, generating strong gains while improving the overall quality of our portfolio. We also extended 87% of our leased aircraft in 2025, up from 79% in 2024, which further highlights the strength of customer demand.

值得一提的是，去年的飛機銷售量尤其高漲。我們出售了 108 架自有飛機，平均機齡為 15 年，在獲得豐厚收益的同時，也提高了我們整體資產組合的品質。2025 年，我們還續租了 87% 的租賃飛機，高於 2024 年的 79%，這進一步凸顯了客戶需求的強勁。

Airlines and Lessors remain prominent buyers, accounting for more than 80% of the aircraft sales revenues last year. Balancing our robust sales activity, we also delivered strong organic fleet growth in 2025 with full year cash CapEx reaching $6.1 billion. As noted on our last call, we acquired Spirit's orderbook of 52 Airbus A320neo-family aircraft last year along with an additional 45 options from Airbus.

航空公司和租賃公司仍然是主要買家，去年佔飛機銷售收入的 80% 以上。在維持強勁銷售活動的同時，我們也實現了強勁的有機車隊成長，2025 年全年現金資本支出達到 61 億美元。正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我們去年收購了 Spirit 航空的 52 架空中巴士 A320neo 系列飛機訂單，以及空中巴士提供的另外 45 架飛機的選擇權。

More recently in January, we announced a sale lease back for six new Airbus A330neos with Virgin Atlantic, which we'll start delivering in the coming months. These are just two examples of bilateral transactions that enable us to secure today's most in-demand aircraft outside traditional OEM channels, and in most instances with delivery certainty before the end of the decade.

最近，今年 1 月，我們宣布與維珍航空達成六架全新空中巴士 A330neo 飛機的售後回租協議，我們將在未來幾個月開始交付這些飛機。以上僅是雙邊交易的兩個例子，這些交易使我們能夠在傳統 OEM 管道之外獲得當今最搶手的飛機，而且在大多數情況下，都能確保在本十年結束前交付。

With our scale, market intelligence, and strong financial position, AerCap is uniquely positioned to continue executing such strategic transactions.

憑藉我們的規模、市場洞察力和雄厚的財力，AerCap 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠繼續執行此類策略交易。

Turning to the Engine business. In 2025, we strengthened our engine offering by expanding our existing partnership with GE Aerospace which will provide support to the GE9X engine. This partnership enhances AerCap's value proposition for airline customers worldwide at a time when engine support and spare engines are in exceptionally high demand.

接下來談談引擎業務。2025 年，我們透過擴大與 GE 航空航太公司的現有合作關係，加強了我們的引擎產品供應，這將為 GE9X 引擎提供支援。在引擎支援和備用引擎需求異常旺盛的當下，此次合作提升了 AerCap 對全球航空公司客戶的價值主張。

Our Engine Leasing business continues to offer a very attractive investment opportunity in this regard. At year end, we have approximately 100 engines on order, which once delivered will further expand our capabilities and reinforce our leadership in this critical space.

在這方面，我們的引擎租賃業務仍提供極具吸引力的投資機會。到年底，我們大約有 100 台引擎訂單，一旦交付，將進一步擴大我們的能力，並鞏固我們在這一關鍵領域的領先地位。

Now turning to Cargo. 2025 was a landmark year for our cargo business as we receive certification for the 777-300ERSF passenger to freighter conversion program. This milestone allowed us to deliver the first eight of our converted 777 aircraft to customers worldwide, helping them to meet strong and growing air cargo demand.

現在來說說貨運業務。 2025 年是我們貨運業務的里程碑之年，因為我們獲得了 777-300ERSF 客改貨項目的認證。這一里程碑使我們能夠向全球客戶交付首批八架改裝後的 777 飛機，幫助他們滿足強勁且不斷增長的航空貨運需求。

The cargo market has shown tremendous resilience despite global trade tariffs and other geopolitical challenges. In addition to meeting demand, our cargo platform also extends the useful life of former passenger aircraft, enabling us to extract further value from our assets.

儘管面臨全球貿易關稅和其他地緣政治挑戰，貨運市場仍展現出強烈的韌性。除了滿足需求外，我們的貨運平台還能延長退役客機的使用壽命，使我們能夠從資產中榨取更多價值。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our robust pipeline of feedstock and expect to deliver another 15 cargo aircrafts from our cargo conversion programs in 2026, five of which are part of the 777 conversion program.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於執行我們強大的原料供應計劃，並預計在 2026 年從我們的貨運改裝計劃中再交付 15 架貨運飛機，其中 5 架是 777 改裝計劃的一部分。

2025 was equally momentous for Milestone, our helicopter business, as it celebrated 15 years in operation. Demand across multiple segments remains strong, reflected in the full year utilization rate, reaching 99%. Today, we have no Sikorsky S-92 helicopters available for lease.

2025 年對我們的直升機業務 Milestone 來說同樣意義非凡，因為該公司慶祝了營運 15 週年。多個細分市場的需求依然強勁，全年利用率達到 99%，充分體現了這一點。目前我們沒有西科斯基S-92直升機可供租賃。

To put this into perspective, Milestone had 18 S-92 helicopters on the ground in 2020, which underscores the sustained recovery in this market. Last year, we further strengthened our helicopter operator relationships by signing 71 lease agreements with 23 customers, the most recent being with Bristow Group for five new Airbus H160s in the fourth quarter of 2025, becoming the first vessel to bring this aircraft type into their fleet.

為了更直觀地說明這一點，Milestone 在 2020 年有 18 架 S-92 直升機停飛，凸顯了該市場的持續復甦。去年，我們與 23 家客戶簽署了 71 份租賃協議，進一步加強了與直升機營運商的關係。最近，我們與 Bristow Group 簽署了一份租賃協議，將於 2025 年第四季度接收 5 架新的空中巴士 H160 直升機，成為首家將該機型引入其機隊的公司。

In closing, 2025 was a tremendous year for AerCap, a year that showcased the inherent strength and capabilities of our global industrial platform. Combining scale, expertise, and disciplined execution, we completed 705 transactions during the year. We purchased approximately 22.1 million of our outstanding shares and generated $5.4 billion of operating cash flow all whilst strengthening our balance sheet and growing book value per share.

總之，2025 年對 AerCap 來說是意義非凡的一年，這一年充分展現了我們全球工業平台的內在實力和能力。憑藉著規模、專業知識和嚴謹的執行力，我們在年內完成了 705 筆交易。我們回購了約 2,210 萬股流通股，並產生了 54 億美元的營運現金流，同時增強了資產負債表，提高了每股帳面價值。

Looking ahead, we enter 2026 ready to build on this position of strength. We have over $3 billion of excess capital to deploy, which we will continue to allocate with the flexible and disciplined approach that has defined our strategy since inception. 95% of our order book is placed for the next two years, and we have an average remaining lease term of seven years on our existing fleet, providing us with exceptional visibility into future cash flows.

展望未來，我們已做好準備，在2026年鞏固此優勢地位。我們擁有超過30億美元的盈餘資本可供部署，並將繼續秉持自公司成立以來便確立的靈活而嚴謹的策略方式進行資金配置。我們95%的訂單已排至未來兩年，現有船隊的平均剩餘租賃期限為七年，這使我們能夠清晰地預測未來的現金流。

This degree of forward revenue certainty is something very few sectors can offer. These factors, together with the structural supply constraints and the strong demand for aviation assets, give us a high level of confidence in the outlook for the business. We look forward to executing our strategy and continuing to deliver long-term value for our shareholders in 2026 and beyond.

這種程度的未來收入確定性，是極少數產業能夠提供的。這些因素，加上結構性供應限制和對航空資產的強勁需求，使我們對業務前景充滿信心。我們期待在 2026 年及以後執行我們的策略，並繼續為股東創造長期價值。

I will now hand the call over to Pete to review the financials in more detail.

現在我將把電話交給皮特，讓他更詳細地審查財務數據。

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. Our GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $633 million or $3.79 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $74 million for the quarter or $0.45 a share. That included lease premium amortization of $25 million, which reduced basic lease rents, maintenance rights amortization of $36 million, which reduced maintenance revenue, and maintenance rights amortization of $13 million, which increased leasing expenses.

謝謝你，格斯。各位早安。我們第四季的GAAP淨收入為6.33億美元，即每股3.79美元。本季收購會計調整的影響為 7,400 萬美元，即每股 0.45 美元。其中包括 2,500 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷（導致基本租賃租金減少）、3,600 萬美元的維護權攤銷（導致維護收入減少）以及 1,300 萬美元的維護權攤提（導致租賃費用增加）。

During the fourth quarter, we had $43 million of recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict, or $0.26 per share. The tax effect of the purchase accounting adjustments and the net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict was $5 million or $0.03 per share. So taking all of that into account, our adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $660 million or $3.95 per share.

第四季度，我們收回了與烏克蘭衝突相關的 4,300 萬美元，即每股 0.26 美元。與烏克蘭衝突相關的購買會計調整和淨回收的稅務影響為 500 萬美元，即每股 0.03 美元。綜上所述，我們第四季的調整後淨收入為 6.6 億美元，即每股 3.95 美元。

I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results for the fourth quarter. Basic lease rents were $1.688 billion basically flat compared to last quarter, and maintenance revenues were $225 million. Net gain on sale of assets was $253 million. We sold 55 of our owned assets during the fourth quarter for total sales revenue of just over $1.3 billion, resulting in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 24% for the quarter.

我將簡要介紹影響我們第四季業績的主要因素。基本租賃租金為 16.88 億美元，與上一季基本持平，維護收入為 2.25 億美元。出售資產的淨收益為2.53億美元。第四季度，我們出售了 55 項自有資產，總銷售收入略高於 13 億美元，該季度未槓桿銷售利潤率為 24%。

As Gus mentioned, this brought our sales for the full year to a record $3.9 billion and a gain on sale margin of 27%, which translates into 2x book equity value. Interest expense was $474 million for the fourth quarter. Leasing expenses were higher than usual due to restructuring costs related to the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy.

正如格斯所提到的，這使得我們全年的銷售額達到了創紀錄的 39 億美元，銷售利潤率達到了 27%，相當於帳面權益價值的 2 倍。第四季利息支出為4.74億美元。由於與 Spirit Airlines 破產相關的重組成本，租賃費用高於往常。

When we look at maintenance revenue and leasing expenses, we generally look at them in terms of net maintenance contribution on an adjusted income basis, which is maintenance revenue, less leasing expenses other than maintenance rights amortization. When we generally expect the contribution to be around $30 million to $50 million a quarter on average, although it does tend to fluctuate from quarter to quarter, mainly due to the level of maintenance activity.

當我們查看維護收入和租賃費用時，我們通常會根據調整後的收入基礎來查看淨維護貢獻，即維護收入減去去維護權攤銷以外的租賃費用。我們通常預期每季平均貢獻額約為 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元，儘管由於維護活動的水平，該貢獻額往往會逐季波動。

In the fourth quarter, the net maintenance contribution was negative $106 million, so approximately $130 million to $150 million lower than normal. This reflects the net impact of the Spirit restructuring, as well as other unusual items, as well as the timing and maintenance activity that I mentioned earlier.

第四季度，淨維護費用為負 1.06 億美元，比正常低約 1.3 億美元至 1.5 億美元。這反映了 Spirit 重組的淨影響，以及其他不尋常的項目，以及我之前提到的時間和維護活動。

Our income tax expense for the fourth quarter was $78 million. Equity and net earnings of investments accounted for under the equity method was $80 million and that was primarily driven by continued strong earnings and gains on sale in the fourth quarter from our Shannon Engine Support joint venture.

我們第四季的所得稅支出為7800萬美元。根據權益法核算的投資權益和淨收益為 8000 萬美元，這主要得益於香農發動機支持合資企業在第四季度持續強勁的盈利和出售收益。

On the next slide, you can see a walk of our full year earnings in EPS. And as you can see, it was a record year for AerCap across a number of areas, including GAAP net income, adjusted net income, GAAP EPS, and adjusted EPS. We had approximately $3.8 billion of GAAP net income for the year, which included $1.5 billion of net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict. That resulted in a record $21.30 of GAAP EPS for the year.

下一張投影片展示了我們全年每股收益的走勢圖。正如你所看到的，對於 AerCap 而言，這是創紀錄的一年，涵蓋了 GAAP 淨收入、調整後淨收入、GAAP 每股收益和調整後每股收益等多個方面。我們今年的 GAAP 淨收入約為 38 億美元，其中包括與烏克蘭衝突相關的 15 億美元淨追償款。這使得該公司當年的 GAAP 每股盈餘創下 21.30 美元的歷史新高。

After adjusting for the insurance recoveries, as well as for purchase accounting items, our adjusted net income was approximately $2.7 billion. So that's an adjusted EPS of $15.37 per share, which is also a record. Our GAAP ROE for the full year was 21% and our adjusted ROE was 15%.

在扣除保險賠償金和購買會計項目後，我們的調整後淨收入約為 27 億美元。因此，調整後的每股收益為 15.37 美元，這也創下了紀錄。我們全年的 GAAP ROE 為 21%，調整後的 ROE 為 15%。

Operating cash flow is $5.4 billion for the year, and as a reminder, this does not include any proceeds from Russian insurance settlements or any gains on sale, both of which go through investing cash flow.

本年度經營現金流為 54 億美元，需要提醒的是，這不包括來自俄羅斯保險賠償的任何款項或任何出售收益，這兩項收入都計入投資現金流。

We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of December 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $21 billion. That compares to uses of around $11 billion, resulting in the next 12 months sources to uses coverage ratio of 1.8x, and that reflects excess cash coverage of around $9 billion.

我們持續保持強勁的流動性狀況。截至12月31日，我們的流動資金總額約為210億美元。相較之下，支出約為 110 億美元，未來 12 個月的資金來源與支出覆蓋率為 1.8 倍，這反映了約 90 億美元的超額現金覆蓋。

Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.1 to 1, and our operating cash flow was approximately $1.2 billion for the fourth quarter. Our secured debt to total assets ratio was 10% at the end of December, the same as last quarter, and our average cost of debt was 4.1%, a slight increase from 4% last quarter.

本季末，我們的槓桿率為 2.1 比 1，第四季經營現金流約為 12 億美元。截至 12 月底，我們的擔保債務與總資產比率為 10%，與上一季相同；我們的平均負債成本為 4.1%，比上一季的 4% 略有上升。

During the fourth quarter, we bought back 3.5 million shares at an average price of $127.63 for a total of $444 million. And in December, we announced a $1 billion share repurchase program, and today we've announced an increase in our dividend to $0.40 a share.

第四季度，我們以平均每股 127.63 美元的價格回購了 350 萬股股票，總計 4.44 億美元。去年 12 月，我們宣布了一項 10 億美元的股票回購計畫；今天，我們又宣布將股利提高到每股 0.40 美元。

One of the metrics that we focus on is growing book value per share. On this slide, you can see that AerCap's book value per share has increased by over $45 or 68% since the end of 2022. Over the past year, book value per share increased by 19%, and in fact, over the past three years, it has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 19%.

我們關注的指標之一是每股帳面價值的成長。從這張投影片中可以看到，自 2022 年底以來，AerCap 的每股帳面價值增加了 45 美元以上，增幅達 68%。過去一年，每股帳面價值成長了 19%，事實上，過去三年，其複合年增長率達到了 19%。

Of course, this reflects in part the significant amount of insurance recoveries that we've had over the last three years, but it also reflects the company's ability to generate significant amounts of capital year after year. So that covers our 2025 performance.

當然，這在某種程度上反映了我們在過去三年中獲得的巨額保險賠償，但也反映了公司年復一年產生大量資本的能力。以上就是我們2025年的業績預測。

Now I'll turn to our guidance for 2026. For 2026, we're projecting adjusted EPS of $12 to $13 not including any gains on sale. On the next slide, you can see a walk from our record adjusted EPS of $15.37 in 2025 to our guidance for 2026. The largest item is gains on sale of $3.95 that we had in 2025, and we have not included any gains in our 2026 forecast.

現在我將談談我們對 2026 年的指導。我們預計 2026 年調整後每股收益為 12 至 13 美元，不包括任何出售收益。下一張投影片展示了從我們 2025 年創紀錄的調整後每股收益 15.37 美元到 2026 年業績指引的過渡圖。最大的項目是我們在 2025 年獲得的 3.95 美元的銷售收益，而我們在 2026 年的預測中沒有計入任何收益。

We had high levels of other income in 2025 related to a number of specific items as well as high interest income. So we're projecting other income to be $0.45 lower in 2026. Our effective tax rate was 13.6% in 2025 due to some releases related to prior years. For 2026, we're projecting an ETR of 15.5%, so that results in a reduction of $0.30.

2025 年，我們還有一些與特定項目相關的其他高額收入以及高額利息收入。因此，我們預計 2026 年其他收入將減少 0.45 美元。由於一些與往年相關的稅收抵免，我們2025年的實際稅率為13.6%。我們預計 2026 年的有效稅率為 15.5%，這將導致稅率降低 0.30 美元。

Other than those items, we're projecting our EPS to be higher by $1.80, which reflects the impact of lease rents, net maintenance contribution, SG&A, share repurchases, and other items. On the following slide, you can see a breakdown of our projected income statement for 2026 showing the major line items.

除了上述項目外，我們預計每股收益將增加 1.80 美元，這反映了租賃租金、淨維護貢獻、銷售、一般及行政費用、股票回購和其他項目的影響。在下一張投影片中，您可以看到我們 2026 年預計損益表的細分，其中顯示了主要項目。

For a full year 2026, we expect to have lease rents around $6.7 billion, maintenance revenues around $700 million, and other income around $200 million for total revenue of around $7.6 billion. On the expense side, we're projecting depreciation and amortization of around $2.6 billion and interest expense of around $2 billion.

預計 2026 年全年，租賃收入約 67 億美元，維護收入約 7 億美元，其他收入約 2 億美元，總收入約 76 億美元。在支出方面，我們預計折舊和攤提約為 26 億美元，利息支出約為 20 億美元。

We expect leasing expenses, SG&A, and other expenses to total around $1.2 billion for the year. And I would note that the majority of the leasing costs associated with the Spirit restructuring were recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025. We will of course have downtime on aircraft that we've taken back from Spirit, which has an impact on leased revenue, and that's been reflected in this forecast.

我們預計全年租賃費用、銷售、管理及行政費用和其他費用總計約為 12 億美元。我還要指出，與 Spirit 重組相關的大部分租賃成本已在 2025 年第四季確認。當然，我們從 Spirit 航空公司收回的飛機會有停飛時間，這會對租賃收入產生影響，這一點已反映在本次預測中。

We've assumed that we'll have cash CapEx of around $5.2 billion for the year, and we're forecasting asset sales of $2 billion to $3 billion. As you know, these figures can vary significantly as CapEx is largely dependent on OEM deliveries and sales volume depends on the demand for assets and the time it takes to close those sales.

我們預計今年的現金資本支出約為 52 億美元，並預測資產出售收入為 20 億至 30 億美元。如您所知，這些數字可能會有很大差異，因為資本支出很大程度上取決於原始設備製造商的交付情況，而銷售量取決於對資產的需求以及完成這些銷售所需的時間。

As I mentioned, we've assumed an effective tax rate of 15.5%, which assumes no specific tax releases as we had in 2025. In 2026, we expect to recognize earnings around $200 million from our equity investments, and that's primarily our engine leasing joint venture SES. So altogether, that gives us projected GAAP net income of around $1.7 billion.

正如我之前提到的，我們假設有效稅率為 15.5%，這假設沒有像 2025 年那樣的特定稅收減免。2026 年，我們預計將從股權投資中獲得約 2 億美元的收益，這主要來自我們的引擎租賃合資企業 SES。因此，總而言之，我們預計 GAAP 淨收入約為 17 億美元。

After adding back purchase accounting adjustments around $300 million, we expect to have adjusted net income of around $2 billion for the year. That gives us an adjusted EPS range of $12 to $13 again, not including any gains on sale.

在計入約 3 億美元的收購會計調整後，我們預計本年度調整後淨收入約為 20 億美元。這樣一來，我們再次得出調整後的每股盈餘範圍為 12 至 13 美元，這還不包括任何出售收益。

So in closing, AerCap continued to perform very strongly during the fourth quarter, concluding a record year for the company across many fronts. As Gus mentioned, we continue to see a strong environment for leasing and a strong environment for aircraft sales, which is reflected in the record level of gains on sale for the full year.

綜上所述，AerCap 在第四季度繼續保持強勁的業績，為該公司在多個方面創紀錄的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。正如格斯所提到的，我們繼續看到租賃市場和飛機銷售市場環境強勁，這體現在全年銷售收入創紀錄的水平上。

We're continuing to generate strong cash flows that in turn result in greater profitability and more financial flexibility, and we're deploying capital where we see the most attractive opportunities.

我們持續產生強勁的現金流，從而帶來更高的獲利能力和更大的財務靈活性，我們將資本部署到我們認為最有吸引力的機會領域。

We also continue to return capital to shareholders. In 2025, we returned $2.6 billion to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We announced another new share repurchase authorization of a $1 billion in December, and today, we've announced an increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share. These actions reflect our strong confidence in the value of AerCap and in our outlook for the future.

我們也會繼續向股東返還資本。2025年，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了26億美元。我們在 12 月宣布了另一項新的股票回購授權，金額為 10 億美元。今天，我們宣布將季度股息提高到每股 0.40 美元。這些措施體現了我們對 AerCap 價值和未來前景的堅定信心。

And with that operator, we can now open up the call for Q&A.

有了這位操作員，我們現在就可以開啟問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

Jamie Baker，摩根大通。

A couple of high-level questions for Gus. So Gus, on the order book, totally understand your preference is to order at the bottom of the cycle when the OEMs come to you. I trust that's a fair characterization. But we still keep coming back to that existing backlog and the possibility that the next downturn is hopefully a long ways away.

我有幾個高層次的問題想問格斯。所以 Gus，關於訂單簿，我完全理解你更喜歡在週期底部，也就是 OEM 廠商主動找上門的時候下單。我認為這是一個恰當的描述。但我們仍然要面對現有的積壓問題，並且希望下一次經濟衰退還很遙遠。

So my question is, is there a point where the backlog window would grow so significant that you might feel you have no choice but to get in with an incremental sizable order?

所以我的問題是，是否存在這樣一個點：積壓訂單窗口增長得如此之大，以至於您別無選擇，只能逐步下達較大訂單？

Thanks, Jamie. Well, like you, we certainly hope that any downturn is a long, long way off. And in that regard, we certainly feel that, Jamie, given the supply dynamics that are in the market even if we did see any weakness on the demand side, the shortage of supplies, we think structural for a good bit of time.

謝謝你，傑米。嗯，跟你一樣，我們當然希望經濟衰退還遙遙無期。在這方面，傑米，我們當然認為，鑑於市場上的供應動態，即使我們看到需求方面有任何疲軟，供應短缺，我們認為這種情況在相當長的一段時間內都是結構性的。

So I take your point on the order book. But that being said, Jamie, last year, we added 103 aircraft to our order book, including options. None of those aircraft came through direct orders from the OEMs. It was all because of our positioning in the industry and how we were able to assist our customers.

我明白你對訂單簿的看法。但話雖如此，傑米，去年我們增加了 103 架飛機的訂單，包括選擇權訂單。這些飛機都不是直接從原始設備製造商訂購的。這一切都歸功於我們在行業中的定位以及我們如何幫助我們的客戶。

We also ordered 22 helicopters. And importantly, in the last two years, we have committed to purchase 281 brand new engines through our own engine business, which is 100% owned in-house, and the SES joint venture. So we have found very significant growth away from the tent in Farnborough or Le Bourget.

我們還訂購了22架直升機。更重要的是，在過去的兩年裡，我們透過我們自己的引擎業務（100% 內部擁有）和 SES 合資企業，承諾購買 281 台全新引擎。因此，我們發現，在法恩伯勒或勒布爾熱的帳篷之外，成長非常顯著。

That's not to say, of course, Jamie, that we won't order with the OEMs. I'm delighted to order with them. But it has to be on terms that makes sense for our customers. And I do think just a bilateral straight-up deal. It's hard to see how that will add value at the moment given the duration of when you deliver this stuff. But there are other things that AerCap can offer to OEMs and discussions we've had with OEMs about that, that they value.

當然，傑米，這並不是說我們就不會向原始設備製造商訂購產品。我很高興能向他們訂購。但條款必須對我們的客戶來說合理。而我確實認為應該直接達成雙邊協議。考慮到交付這些內容所需的時間，目前很難看出這樣做能帶來什麼價值。但 AerCap 也可以為 OEM 廠商提供其他服務，我們也與 OEM 廠商就此進行討論，他們對此非常重視。

So I would say, if the right opportunity comes, of course, we will, but I have a high level of confidence in the capability of the AerCap platform, its global reach and penetration in the industry and the unique skill sets it brings, particularly through its engine business as well that give us access to opportunities that no one else would be able to open up.

所以我想說，如果合適的機會出現，我們當然會這樣做，但我對 AerCap 平台的能力、其全球影響力、行業滲透率以及它所帶來的獨特技能充滿信心，尤其是在其發動機業務方面，這讓我們有機會獲得其他任何人都無法獲得的機會。

Okay. That's great color. And then sort of as a follow-up, Gus. Lessors, if I just kind of step back, lessors are scaling up to sizes that at least for us, 10- or 15 years ago, we wouldn't have thought it was likely, right? So my question is, is there any size -- I don't know, maybe it's $100 billion. I didn't just make up a number, but is there any size where individual lessors simply becomes potentially too large?

好的。顏色真好看。然後，算是後續吧，格斯。如果我退後一步來看，出租方的規模正在擴大，至少對我們來說，在 10 年或 15 年前，我們根本不會想到這種規模，對吧？所以我的問題是，這個數字有多大——我不知道，也許是 1000 億美元。我不是隨便編造一個數字，但是是否存在某種規模，使得單一出租人的規模過大？

Thanks, Jamie. I would say it's a nuanced answer. In terms -- to me, the concern I had when we were acquiring GECAS was would we be of a size where we had to participate in every transaction because we had so many aircraft coming at us or engines every week. So we had to place X aircraft, X engines, Y helicopters, et cetera. And are you a price taker from the market?

謝謝你，傑米。我認為這是一個需要仔細斟酌的答案。就我而言——我當時在收購 GECAS 時擔心的是，我們的規模是否會大到需要參與每一筆交易，因為我們每週都會收到大量的飛機或發動機訂單。所以我們必須部署 X 架飛機、X 台發動機、Y 架直升機等等。你是市場價格的被動接受者嗎？

That was my concern at the time, it proved to be unfounded, and we are well able to exercise price discipline, placement discipline as evidenced by our results.

那是我當時的擔憂，但事實證明我的擔憂是多餘的，而且正如我們的業績所證明的那樣，我們完全有能力實行價格紀律和投放紀律。

So to me, I think -- and of course, so I would say on that one, so long as I don't believe that we will have to take every transaction in the market, and we're not price takers, which I don't see, I think you could grow quite a bit from where we are. I do believe that.

所以我覺得——當然，關於這一點，我會說，只要我不認為我們必須接受市場上的每一筆交易，而且我們不是價格接受者（我並不這麼認為），我認為我們可以從現在的位置發展得相當不錯。我相信這一點。

And then on the liability side, which would have been, as you rightly say, 10-, 15 years ago, a very limiting factor as there were very few investment-grade lessors, there was very little public debt offerings, et cetera. That's changed dramatically. While there nearly every lessor in the world issues public debt, every big institutional investor, bond fund, bank has an aviation division now and has understood the space a lot more and realizes through thick and thin that aircraft are a safe store of value and a hard dollar asset.

而在負債方面，正如您所說，在 10 到 15 年前，這是一個非常大的限制因素，因為當時投資級出租人很少，公開發行的債務也很少等等。情況已經發生了巨大變化。雖然世界上幾乎所有的飛機租賃公司都會發行公共債務，但每個大型機構投資者、債券基金、銀行現在都設有航空部門，並且對這個領域有了更深入的了解，無論順境逆境，都認識到飛機是安全的價值儲存手段和硬通貨資產。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Last week or was it two weeks ago, in Dublin, Gus right, there was a lot of talk about an A220-500. And what's your take on the airplane? What does it mean? If Airbus were to do something like that, would that provoke some competitive response from Boeing? And you, yourself, being a large fleet owner, how do you think about it?

上週還是兩週前，在都柏林，沒錯，格斯說得對，當時有很多關於A220-500的討論。你對飛機有什麼看法？這是什麼意思？如果空中巴士採取類似的行動，是否會引發波音的競爭性回應？而您本人，作為一家大型車隊的擁有者，您對此有何看法？

Look, candidly, I just don't see anywhere in the market that the airplane is needed. Airbus are the market leaders in the narrow bodies. I think they'd be just cannibalizing their own market share, incurring a lot of cost.

坦白說，我實在看不出市場上有任何需要飛機的地方。空中巴士是窄體客機市場的領導者。我認為他們這樣做只會蠶食自己的市場份額，而且會付出很大的代價。

I know the A220-300 program, they want to make it more profitable. I think they just focus on their efficiency of manufacturing the aircraft rather than trying to just scale up with more volume because I think they're only eating their own market share. It's not solving a problem that exists in my view that aircraft.

我知道A220-300項目，他們想讓它更賺錢。我認為他們只是專注於提高飛機製造效率，而不是試圖透過增加產量來擴大規模，因為我認為他們只是在蠶食自己的市場份額。在我看來，這並沒有解決飛機上存在的問題。

Got it. That's clear. And then in the quarter -- or in the year, excuse me, end of the quarter. You guys have been very successful at selling aircraft. When does that trade end? So maybe this is a follow-on to Jamie's question. Like how do we think about a transition from AerCap selling aircraft at a gain to maybe just more of a focus on the traditional leasing model?

知道了。這一點很清楚。然後到了季度末——或者說，抱歉，到了年末，季度末。你們在飛機銷售方面非常成功。這種交易何時結束？所以這或許是對傑米問題的後續提問。例如，我們如何看待 AerCap 從以營利為目的出售飛機，轉變為更專注於傳統的租賃模式？

Well, I'd say, Ron, if you look at our earnings profile, the vast, vast majority of our earnings comes from the operating business. While the gain on sales or percentage margins are higher than usual, I would say that if you go back to 2006 when we became a public company of 20 years, I think for all 20 years, maybe 19 years, we have sold assets at a gain. That speaks to the discipline of how we acquire assets, but most importantly, how we manage them and how we manage the maintenance cost of those assets and the condition we manage those assets, too.

嗯，羅恩，我想說，如果你看一下我們的獲利情況，你會發現我們絕大部分的獲利都來自於經營業務。雖然銷售額或利潤率高於往常，但我想說，如果回顧我們2006年成為上市公司以來的20年，我認為在這20年裡，或許有19年，我們出售資產都是盈利的。這反映了我們在獲取資產方面的嚴謹性，但更重要的是，體現了我們在管理資產、管理資產維護成本以及管理資產狀況方面的嚴謹性。

Because at the end of the day, an aircraft is really just a piece of tin, and without records and management of those records, it is an expensive piece of tin. So to generate value on a consistent basis over a 20-year period, which this company has done, it is about how you manage that asset every single day. And we've demonstrated that. So I'd be highly confident that as we go forward, I mean maybe we won't be at 2x book equity forever. But if you look at our history, I think, Pete, on average the last 20 years, we sell about 1.3x book equity, is it?

因為歸根究底，飛機其實只是一塊鐵皮，如果沒有記錄和對這些記錄的管理，它就是一塊昂貴的鐵皮。因此，要像這家公司一樣，在 20 年的時間內持續創造價值，關鍵在於你如何每天管理這項資產。我們已經證明了這一點。因此，我非常有信心，隨著我們不斷前進，我的意思是，我們或許不會永遠保持 2 倍的帳面淨值。但如果你回顧我們的歷史，我認為，皮特，過去 20 年，我們平均每家公司售出的股票價值約為帳面淨值的 1.3 倍，是這樣嗎？

Yes, a little above that answer.

是的，比那個答案略高一些。

Yes. And that's going through the average of going through the financial crisis, COVID, Russia. And what I point to, Ron, I think is important is the stability of AerCap's earnings through thick and thin. Our average GAAP ROE for the last 20 years is 951 basis points above the five-year treasury for that 20-year period. And that is a GAAP number, which includes the impact of the losses in Ukraine, COVID, the financial crisis.

是的。而且這還是在經歷了金融危機、新冠疫情和俄羅斯危機等一系列事件的平均情況下。羅恩，我認為重要的是AerCap的獲利能力在順境和逆境中都保持穩定。過去 20 年，我們的平均 GAAP ROE 比同期五年期公債殖利率高出 951 個基點。這是按美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算的數字，其中包括烏克蘭損失、新冠疫情和金融危機的影響。

I would challenge you to find any industrial company in the aerospace sector that could match the stability of those returns or indeed the outlook that this company has.

我敢說，你很難在航空航太領域找到任何工業公司，能夠像這家公司一樣擁有如此穩定的收益，或是擁有如此廣闊的發展前景。

Yes. No, for sure. And then maybe just one last quick one. Everything seems really good right now kind of across all the segments. When you think about risk mitigation, what worries you? I mean, there's got to be something that maybe doesn't keep you up at night, but at least in the back of your head. What would get your spidey sense going that, hmm, we got to think about this.

是的。不，絕對不是。然後，也許就再來一個簡短的吧。目前看來，各方面都發展得相當不錯。在考慮風險緩解措施時，您最擔心的是什麼？我的意思是，總是會有些事情，也許不會讓你夜不能寐，但至少會在你的腦海裡揮之不去。什麼會讓你產生一種直覺，覺得「嗯，我們得好好想想這件事」。

Yes. Well, I think that for me, Ron, everything boils down to the day-to-day of the business. The operations of the business that we are 100% focused on making sure that our assets are moving efficiently as quickly as we can. They're on time, on spec, they're on budget. That is what drives the business, the internal operations of the business.

是的。嗯，我覺得對我來說，羅恩，一切都歸功於日常的業務運作。我們業務的營運重點是確保我們的資產能夠盡可能有效率、快速地運作。它們按時、按規格、按預算完成。這就是企業營運的驅動力，是企業的內部運作。

That's things like internal audit, they're boring. But things like that really make a difference in the long run of how you manage the business. We have very high-value assets, so very high CapEx, very low numbers of people against that. So not much in the way of labor. But it's vital. Therefore, that all the process, the people you have that they're 100% focused every day on doing the right thing and following the process procedures that underpin how this company operates. And that, Ron, from that, everything flows. If that breaks down, it's lights out.

例如內部稽核之類的工作，很無聊。但從長遠來看，諸如此類的事情確實會對你如何經營企業產生影響。我們擁有非常高價值的資產，因此資本支出非常高，但與之相符的人員數量卻非常少。所以勞動方面並沒有太多投入。但這至關重要。因此，所有流程，所有人員，每天都 100% 專注於做正確的事情，並遵循支撐公司營運的流程程序。羅恩，一切都由此而來。如果這套機制崩潰了，那就徹底完成了。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. And congrats on some really impressive results and even a higher level of excess capital than three months ago. Maybe on that issue, could you talk a little bit about how you see that deployment of that excess capital? And it seems like there isn't much if any of that embedded in your guide for 2026?

偉大的。恭喜你們取得了非常令人矚目的成績，而且盈餘資本水準甚至比三個月前還要高。關於這個問題，您能否談談您如何看待這部分過剩資金的部署？而你們的 2026 年指南中似乎並沒有包含太多這方面的內容？

Sure, Moshe. So in terms of the guide, first off, I mean, we've assumed that we would use our remaining authorization and then do some other buybacks on top of that for modeling purposes. And look, if you look at what we did in 2025, buying back $2.4 billion worth of stock, I mean that's indicative, I think, of our view there in terms of the attractiveness of the stock.

當然可以，莫舍。所以就指南而言，首先，我的意思是，我們假設我們會使用剩餘的授權，然後在此基礎上進行一些其他的回購，以達到建模的目的。你看，如果你看看我們在 2025 年所做的，回購了價值 24 億美元的股票，我的意思是，我認為這表明了我們對該股票吸引力的看法。

I think in terms of leverage and how we use our excess capital over the medium term, I would expect that to start to revert towards more normal levels towards our target. But as Gus mentioned before, we're really focused on the opportunities, where can you get the most value in deploying capital, whether that's buying back stock, whether that's adding to the order book, the engines, all of those type of things.

我認為，就槓桿率以及我們在中期內如何使用超額資本而言，我預計這種情況會開始恢復到更正常的水平，並朝著我們的目標邁進。但正如 Gus 之前提到的，我們真正關注的是機會，在哪裡可以最大限度地利用資本，無論是回購股票，還是增加訂單簿、引擎等等。

And so those opportunities come along from time to time and we act on them. And we want to be able to act on them in a big way. And I think given our positioning now, we obviously have a lot of capital that can be deployed for that purpose.

因此，這樣的機會時不時會出現，而我們會抓住它們。我們希望能夠大力落實這些建議。我認為，鑑於我們目前的處境，我們顯然有很多資金可以用於這個目的。

Right. And maybe in one of your slides, you noted over 100 aircraft were added to your order book from Spirit and other transactions and kind of talked about that a little bit. As you look at the landscape, do you think that future years will have comparable levels? How should we think about what the opportunity set is out there as we go forward?

正確的。或許在你的某張投影片中，你提到透過 Spirit 航空和其他交易，你的訂單簿上增加了 100 多架飛機，並對此進行了一些討論。從目前的情況來看，你認為未來幾年還能維持類似的水準嗎？展望未來，我們該如何看待擺在我們面前的各種機會？

Sure, Moshe. And you're right. Not only did we add the 103 aircraft last year, but as I mentioned in an earlier comment, in the last two years, we've added 281 brand-new engines. That's a significant amount of growth in our two engine businesses. And we -- like my view has always been in this business, I've said to you guys, aviation is a growth business.

當然可以，莫舍。你說得對。去年我們不僅有103架飛機，而且正如我在之前的評論中提到的，在過去的兩年裡，我們還增加了281台全新的發動機。這對我們兩大引擎業務來說都是顯著的成長。而且──就像我一直以來在這個產業的觀點一樣，我也跟你們說過，航空業是個成長型產業。

Every 15- to 20 years, the number of people traveling doubles. Leasing is a growth space within that. The airlines will always need us. The airlines' net profit margin next year will be around close to 4% per IATA. That is a business that always needs capital. It's a business that will need aircraft, and we supply both and we can manage both.

每隔15到20年，旅行人數就會翻倍。租賃是其中的一個成長領域。航空公司永遠都需要我們。根據國際航空運輸協會（IATA）的數據，航空公司明年的淨利率將接近4%。這是一個始終需要資金的產業。這是一項需要飛機的業務，而我們既能提供飛機，也能管理飛機。

So I would be very confident that as we look forward, as the aviation industry grows, opportunity will come. We've demonstrated year in, year out that we've always found attractive opportunities for our shareholders. Last year was no exception. This year is off to a good start as well. You saw the announcement that we added another six widebodies with Virgin Atlantic.

因此，我非常有信心，展望未來，隨著航空業的發展，機會將會到來。我們年復一年證明，我們總是能為股東找到有吸引力的投資機會。去年也不例外。今年開局也不錯。你們都看到了我們宣布維珍航空新增六架寬體客機的消息。

Again, these are bilateral transactions in time frames that are just not available traditionally with traditional orders with the OEMs. And so we're always looking to how to allocate the capital in the best way. And of course, we believe that our shares still represent the cheapest aircraft in the world.

再次強調，這些都是雙邊交易，其時間跨度是傳統上透過與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 簽訂的傳統訂單所無法實現的。因此，我們一直在尋找最佳的資本配置方式。當然，我們相信我們的股票仍然代表著世界上最便宜的飛機。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Pete, I think you mentioned some of the downtime from the Spirit aircraft was kind of contemplated in the guide. I was maybe just hoping for an update on timing of kind of when those get kind of released and go back into service? And how much of that was actually contemplated for this year?

皮特，我想你之前提到過，指南中已經考慮到了「精神號」飛機停駛期間的一些時間。我或許只是希望能夠了解這些設備何時發布並重新投入使用的具體時間安排？今年究竟有多少計劃是真正落實的？

Sure, Terry. So we've baked that into our numbers, into our guidance that we've provided here for 2026. We'd expect the first of those aircraft to start coming back in the second half of the year.

當然可以，特里。因此，我們已經將這些因素納入了我們的數據和我們在此提供的 2026 年指導方針中。我們預計首批飛機將於今年下半年開始返回。

Got it. And when do you think all of those actually come back? Is it this year? Or does it kind of drift into '27?

知道了。你覺得這些東西什麼時候才能全部恢復原狀？是今年嗎？或者它會慢慢延續到 27 年？

Some of it, I think it will go in -- some of it is going to go into '27. I mean we'll see how fast they can get done. Obviously, we'd prefer sooner. But we've assumed that some of that comes back in '26 and then bleeds into early part of 2027.

我認為其中一些會進入——其中一些會進入 2027 年。我的意思是，我們看看他們能多快完成。當然，我們希望盡快實現。但我們假設其中一部分會在 2026 年恢復，然後延續到 2027 年初。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on the capital allocation question. You guys gave some color on what the priorities are kind of medium term. But as you kind of sit here today for 2026, like maybe just kind of rank order kind of the most attractive uses of capital, whether it's buybacks or some like one-off deals that you see?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。或許還可以就資本配置問題做個後續說明。你們簡要介紹了中期工作的重點。但如果你今天坐在這裡展望 2026 年，或許可以對最具吸引力的資本用途進行排序，無論是股票回購還是你看到的某些一次性交易？

Thanks, Terry. Terry, I wouldn't rank them per se. I mean, to me, the uses of capital, our return of capital to shareholders, obviously, the buybacks, we have very small dividend, asset acquisitions, be it engines, aircraft or M&A for that matter. As you know, we participated in an M&A process earlier in the year.

謝謝你，特里。特里，我不會給他們排名。我的意思是，對我而言，資本的用途，我們向股東返還資本，顯然還有股票回購，我們的股息非常低，資產收購，無論是發動機、飛機還是併購。如您所知，我們今年早些時候參與了一項併購活動。

But the key is discipline, Terry. Any one of those three are just fine with me so long as the outcome of those decisions is to increase the value of this company, by increasing earnings on a risk-adjusted basis. That's the only reason we're here, nothing else. I'm not here to grow for the sake of growth. We're here to make a return for our shareholders. And whichever one of those capital allocation strategies or all three of them for that matter, they will be the ones who we'll follow that will add value.

但關鍵在於自律，特里。這三個決定中的任何一個我都接受，只要這些決定的結果能夠透過增加風險調整後的收益來提高公司的價值即可。我們來這裡只有這個原因，沒有其他原因。我來這裡不是為了成長而成長。我們來這裡是為了帶給股東回報。無論採用哪一種資本配置策略，或三種策略全部採用，我們都將遵循那些能夠創造價值的策略。

Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

凱瑟琳‧歐布萊恩，高盛集團。

So I have a bit of a follow-up to Moshe and Terry's question. Gus, you've made it clear you continue to see very good value in buying back your own shares over the last couple of these calls in the last several years. Your leverage is still well below your target at 2.1x at year-end.

我還有一些後續問題要補充，針對 Moshe 和 Terry 的問題。Gus，在過去幾年的幾次電話會議中，你已經明確表示，你仍然認為回購自己的股票非常有價值。截至年底，您的槓桿率仍遠低於 2.1 倍的目標。

Should we interpret this as you're seeing more unique and significant opportunities to acquire assets over the next year or so and you want to have dry powder? And I guess like if that doesn't materialize over the next 6-, 12 months, how quickly and aggressively will you pivot to shareholder returns? I guess I'm just trying to understand, is there a minimum leverage where you not want to sit at for more than a quarter or two?

我們是否可以理解為，您認為在未來一年左右的時間裡，您將獲得更多獨特且重要的資產收購機會，並且您希望擁有充足的資金？我想，如果未來 6 個月到 12 個月內這種情況沒有發生，你們會以多快的速度和多大的力道轉向股東回報？我只是想了解一下，是否存在一個最低槓桿率，超過這個價值就不應該持有超過​​一兩個季度？

I think, Catherine, you've got to put a little bit of context around the current debt equity ratio because of the large insurance recovery that came in just a few months ago. And so that has had a big impact on it. So you don't just distribute that just as quickly. And if you look at what we did last year, it's a good indicator of how we think.

凱瑟琳，我認為你需要對目前的債務權益比率進行一些背景分析，因為幾個月前收到了一筆巨額保險賠償。因此，這產生了很大的影響。所以你不能像分發其他東西那樣迅速地分發出去。看看我們去年所做的事情，就能很好地反映出我們的想法。

As we said, we had a record amount of return of capital to shareholders with best part of $2.5 billion. And in addition, we deployed $6.1 billion of CapEx last year, that was cash CapEx, and then we added a very significant amount of assets to the backlog.

正如我們所說，我們向股東返還了創紀錄的資本，金額接近 25 億美元。此外，我們去年投入了 61 億美元的資本支出，全部為現金資本支出，然後我們也為積壓訂單中增加了非常大量的資產。

So as I look forward, I'm not concerned about the ability of the company to find attractive uses of capital. And if that is buybacks, as I said on the earlier call or asset acquisitions, et cetera, very happy to do it. But we have always managed to do that. And I would imagine that we will. Pete, anything to add?

因此，展望未來，我並不擔心公司能否找到有吸引力的資本用途。如果是指股票回購（正如我在之前的電話會議中所說）或資產收購等等，我非常樂意去做。但我們一直都能做到這一點。我想我們會的。皮特，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I agree with that. Look, I think, Catherine, over time, as I said, I think it is going to get closer to the target level. But obviously, we're looking for the right opportunities to deploy it. The worst thing you could do is to try and chase growth by doing the wrong deal.

不，我同意。凱瑟琳，我認為，正如我所說，隨著時間的推移，我認為它會越來越接近目標水平。但很顯然，我們正在尋找合適的時機來部署它。最糟糕的做法就是為了追求成長而做出錯誤的交易。

Absolutely agree. I think you guys all speak to that. Another one, in the industry, another owner of engine assets announced they'd be looking to convert engines to power turbines to service data centers. Is that something you guys are exploring? And can you just remind us how many engines you own that are not under your agreement with CFM?

完全同意。我覺得你們都提到了這一點。業內另一家擁有發動機資產的公司宣布，他們將考慮改造發動機，為數據中心提供動力渦輪機。這是你們正在探索的方向嗎？請問您能否提醒我們一下，您名下有多少引擎不在與 CFM 的協議範圍內？

Sure. Well, to start with, of course, we're looking at this. And if it turns out that the demand for what are currently commercial aerospace engines, if that demand to convert them into ground-based power generation for data centers is very durable and is long-lived, then, of course, we will participate in that either directly or indirectly, directly by converting the engine into a ground-based power generation or indirectly by taking advantage of this surge in demand.

當然。首先，我們當然要去看看這個。如果事實證明，目前商用航空發動機的需求，以及將其轉化為資料中心地面發電的需求非常持久，那麼我們當然會參與其中，無論是直接參與還是間接參與，直接參與的方式是將發動機轉化為地面發電，間接參與的方式是利用這種需求的激增。

But at the moment, we want to make sure that this demand is a durable demand and it's not fleeting. And that's our focus at the moment is sizing the market. And from there then, we will participate, as I said, one way or the other.

但目前，我們希望確保這種需求是持久的，而不是曇花一現的。我們目前的重點是評估市場規模。然後，正如我所說，我們將以某種方式參與其中。

In terms of the quantum of engines that we have ourselves, if you look at what's installed on our aircraft, take the CFM56 model. We are the largest owner of CFM56s in the world. And I would remind you that all of our engines are serviceable and have to be returned for the most part, in full life condition, which is very different to a portfolio of engines that is half-life or run out engines and you're swapping modules to make a serviceable engine.

就我們本身擁有的發動機數量而言，如果你看看我們飛機上安裝的發動機，以 CFM56 型號為例。我們是全球最大的 CFM56 擁有者。我還要提醒各位，我們所有的引擎都是可維修的，而且大部分都必須以完整的使用壽命狀態歸還，這與那些半壽命或報廢的引擎組合截然不同，那些引擎需要更換模組才能使其恢復使用。

So when we look at the engine portfolio that we have, Catherine, on any of those metrics, we would have more engines than anyone in the world.

所以，凱瑟琳，當我們審視我們擁有的引擎產品組合時，無論從哪個指標來看，我們的引擎數量都比世界上任何人都多。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

So maybe following up on the Spirit order book that you've taken and maybe this is a more theoretical question than practical. But if you look at those aircraft slots that you were able to get, how much of a value did you get if you were to have ordered that on your own? I mean are those planes even available to acquire? But how do you measure value?

所以，也許這是在跟進你所學的《靈性秩序》一書，也許這是一個更偏向理論性而非實踐性的問題。但是，如果你看看你最終獲得的那些飛機起降時刻，如果你自己去訂購，你能獲得多大的價值呢？我的意思是，這些飛機現在還能買到嗎？但如何衡量價值呢？

Well, that's where the knowledge and the wisdom is, understanding the differences in price and value. And I would say, given our market knowledge, we lease more airplanes than anyone. We lease more engines than anyone. We know where the delivery slots are with the OEMs. That, all that data comes together to assess what we think the value of an aircraft is in any given year.

嗯，知識和智慧就在於理解價格和價值之間的差異。而且，根據我們對市場的了解，我認為我們租賃的飛機比任何人都多。我們的引擎租賃量比任何人都多。我們知道與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的交貨時段安排。所有這些數據綜合起來，用於評估我們認為飛機在任何特定年份的價值。

And closer-in aircraft have a premium because it is availability. And so when we looked at the proposition with Spirit, and we saw the order book, we felt that there was significant value there versus the OEM alternative, and that value was composed of the proximity in terms of time and also the absolute price level. Is that okay? Okay.

距離機場較近的飛機價格更高，因為航班可用性更高。因此，當我們研究 Spirit 的方案，並查看訂單簿時，我們覺得與 OEM 替代方案相比，它具有顯著的價值，這種價值體現在時間上的接近性以及絕對價格水平上。這樣可以嗎？好的。

Great. And would you like to quantify any of that, Gus?

偉大的。格斯，你願意量化一下這些嗎？

I won't, if you don't mind. Thanks very much.

如果你不介意的話，我就不說了。非常感謝。

Yes, no worries. I thought I'd try. And if I could do another follow-up, you've already received more in insurance proceeds and the charge you took regarding Ukraine. I was wondering, can you remind us how much more unresolved or unsettled litigation you have and if you're able to recover more, how much that could be?

是的，沒問題。我想試試。如果我能再跟進一下，您已經收到了更多的保險賠償金以及您就烏克蘭問題提出的指控。我想問一下，您能否告知我們您還有多少未解決或未結案的訴訟？如果您能夠追回更多賠償，大概能追回多少？

Well, Kristine, we do have a case ongoing, this is pursuing the operator insurance reinsurers. So that's the case in London that will -- we expect will go to trial late this year. We haven't included in our guidance or in our projections any further recoveries on that or from the Russian insurers directly.

克里斯汀，我們確實有一個正在進行的案件，我們正在追究運營商的保險再保險公司的責任。所以倫敦的這個案子——我們預計——將於今年稍後開庭。我們的指導意見或預測中並未包含對該筆款項或直接從俄羅斯保險公司獲得的任何進一步追償。

It's possible that we could get some there, but it's just very hard to know. And obviously, as you said, we've already gotten $3 billion back, which, from our perspective, is a huge result. Obviously, we have taken everything that we can. But at the moment, we're not projecting anything.

我們有可能在那裡得到一些，但這很難說。顯然，正如你所說，我們已經收回了 30 億美元，從我們的角度來看，這是一個巨大的成果。顯然，我們已經竭盡所能了。但目前，我們沒有任何預測。

Arren Cyganovich, Truist Securities.

阿倫·西加諾維奇，Truist Securities。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about any technology investments that you potentially could be making or any investments that you have made recently that are improving the efficiency of the company? I know your company's quite efficient already, but just curious what you're seeing on there.

我想請您談談您未來可能進行的任何技術投資，或者您最近進行的任何能夠提高公司效率的投資？我知道貴公司效率已經很高了，但我只是好奇你們在那上面看到了什麼。

Sure. Well, I would say the biggest investment we make is around -- and we always have because we have more data than any other participant in the aviation industry. And that data is used, as I just referenced in the earlier question, to assess what we believe value of an asset is.

當然。嗯，我想說我們最大的投資在於——而且我們一直都有這方面的投資，因為我們擁有的數據比航空業任何其他參與者都多。正如我在前面的問題中提到的那樣，這些數據被用來評估我們認為資產的價值。

The value of an asset is a function of market demand, it's a function of the condition of your assets, and it's a function of where you think market demand will be and what you think the cost of maintaining assets, that particular asset will be in the future.

資產的價值取決於市場需求、資產狀況、以及你對未來市場需求的預期和你對未來維護該特定資產成本的預期。

So you take all -- that gives you data and we're always putting money into our IT systems, our technology systems in AerCap to improve, to enhance the efficiency of that data. The same is true then in particular, when it comes to maintaining the assets. As I said in prior calls, if you spend $100 million on an airplane, you will spend $100 million on maintenance over its life, or you might spend $120 million if you don't know what you're doing or you might spend $90 million if you know what you're doing.

所以，你把所有數據都收集起來——這樣你就能獲得數據，而我們一直在為 AerCap 的 IT 系統和技術系統投入資金，以改善和提高這些數據的效率。在資產維護方面，情況尤其如此。正如我之前在電話會議中所說，如果你花 1 億美元買一架飛機，那麼在其使用壽命期間，你將花費 1 億美元用於維護；如果你不知道自己在做什麼，你可能會花費 1.2 億美元；如果你知道自己在做什麼，你可能只會花費 9000 萬美元。

The proof of whether you did $90 million, $100 million or $120 million generally comes out in your margins versus your peers and also your gain on sale of older life assets. And you can see the results of that with our margins, both our operating margins on the core business and as well as gain on sale.

衡量你賺了9000萬美元、1億美元還是1.2億美元，通常可以從你與同行的利潤率以及出售舊資產的收益中看出。從我們的利潤率中，您可以看到這些成果，包括核心業務的營業利潤率以及銷售收益。

So we are always looking to try and utilize the vast quantity of data that we have to make our decisions better informed. That's not to say that we -- that doesn't mean that we're making some massive AI investment. That's not the case. The case is that we look at the different ways we can enhance the data we have all the time.

因此，我們一直在努力利用我們擁有的大量數據，以便做出更明智的決策。這並不是說我們會——這並不意味著我們會對人工智慧進行大規模投資。事實並非如此。問題在於，我們要不斷探索各種方法來增強現有的數據。

Okay. And then this is kind of a small one, but the CapEx guide for the year, $5.2 billion. I think the last public disclosure of what the obligations were was in the second quarter's $5.8 billion of obligations, like $600 million or so less now. Were those sales or delays? Just curious what the drop-down was?

好的。還有一點比較小的，就是今年的資本支出指引目標為 52 億美元。我認為上次公開披露債務情況是在第二季度，當時的債務為 58 億美元，現在比之前少了大約 6 億美元。那是銷售還是延誤？我只是好奇下拉式選單裡是什麼？

Well, we had a pretty significant amount that we did in the fourth quarter of this year. So I think that was a lot of CapEx in the fourth quarter. So it wasn't -- not meaningful delays from what we had before. I think it was just, some of that may have been front-loaded that we did last quarter.

嗯，我們在今年第四季完成了相當多的工作。所以我認為第四季資本支出很大。所以，並沒有出現──與之前相比，並沒有出現實質的延誤。我認為，其中一些工作可能是我們在上個季度提前完成的。

So pull forward from the 2026 estimate?

所以要將預測時間提早到2026年嗎？

Yes. I think because we're giving a next 12-months estimate, right? And so yes, this last quarter was high for CapEx. It was $2 billion total or $2.1 billion of cash payments that we made. A fair amount of that was PDPs, but also deliveries in the fourth quarter. So we think $5.3 billion is a reasonable number for next year.

是的。我想是因為我們給的是未來 12 個月的預估，對吧？所以，是的，上個季度的資本支出很高。我們總共付了20億美元，其中21億美元是現金支付。其中相當一部分是預售訂單，但也包括第四季的交貨量。所以我們認為明年53億美元是個合理的數字。

It could grow if we find additional opportunities. But we have seen that in the past where it's actually grown during the year because even though you might see some delays because of production issues with the OEMs, we've also added, in some cases, whether that's engines or helicopters or aircraft during the course of the year. So I think it's a reasonable number for now.

如果我們能找到更多機會，它可能會發展壯大。但我們過去也看到過這種情況，實際上在一年中有所增長，因為即使由於原始設備製造商的生產問題可能會出現一些延誤，但我們也在某些情況下增加了產量，無論是發動機、直升機還是飛機。所以我認為目前這個數字還算合理。

Shannon Doherty, Deutsche Bank.

香農·多爾蒂，德意志銀行。

Congratulations on the strong results this year. Gus, this may be a follow-up to Ron's question asked earlier in the call. But in general, do you foresee any sort of systemic risk to aircraft lessors that some financially weaker airlines may fail to meet contractual return conditions, just simply based on the high maintenance escalation costs that we're seeing? I understand this would be a bigger problem for the airlines, but I'm just curious to get your thoughts.

祝賀今年取得優異成績。Gus，這可能是對 Ron 在通話中早些時候提出的問題的後續問題。但總的來說，您是否預見到飛機租賃公司會面臨某種系統性風險，即一些財務狀況較弱的航空公司可能無法滿足合約規定的歸還條件，僅僅是因為我們目前看到的維護成本大幅上漲？我知道這對航空公司來說會是個更大的問題，但我只是好奇想聽聽你們的看法。

Sure. I mean, look, the reality is, of course, the airlines are a non-investment-grade bunch, which is the great thing about them, they'll always need me, that's never changed and I don't expect it to ever change. So there will be instances, no doubt, in the future where they're not able to meet return conditions because they don't have the wherewithal.

當然。我的意思是，你看，現實情況當然是，航空公司都不是投資級公司，但這正是它們的優勢所在，它們永遠都需要我，這一點從未改變，而且我也不認為它會改變。因此，毫無疑問，未來會出現一些情況，他們因為缺乏相應的能力而無法滿足退貨條件。

Now in many of those instances, that's where someone of our position and scale is able to provide alternatives that no one else can. So if they can't meet engine return conditions, we might say, okay, we can use our engine leasing business or just our scale, our positioning with the engine MROs to facilitate -- to secure slots, to provide spare engines.

現在，在很多情況下，正是像我們這樣有地位和規模的人能夠提供其他人無法提供的替代方案。因此，如果他們無法滿足引擎歸還條件，我們可能會說，好吧，我們可以利用我們的引擎租賃業務，或者利用我們的規模、我們在引擎維修、修理和大修 (MRO) 領域的地位來促成——確保名額，提供備用引擎。

And in return for that, then we will cooperate with our partner airline and see what they can give us in return. That's happened on several occasions, for example, with GOL Airlines, when they were in some difficulty in Chapter 11. We were able to provide them with engines. We took over some of their order book, something similar with Spirit, et cetera. So I would see it as part of the daily cut and thrust of our business, and it's something that we manage year in, year out for the last 20 years.

作為回報，我們將與合作航空公司合作，看看他們能為我們帶來什麼回報。這種情況已經發生過好幾次了，例如 GOL 航空公司在申請破產保護（第 11 章）時就遇到了一些困難。我們能夠為他們提供引擎。我們接手了他們的一些訂單簿，Spirit 等公司的情況也類似。所以我認為這是公司日常營運中競爭的一部分，也是我們過去 20 年來年復一年都在應對的事情。

As my follow-up, we know that lease extensions have been historically high over the past couple of years. When do you expect renewal rates to decline or perhaps normalize? And what percent of your existing fleet are COVID leases? Do you expect them to run off, let's say, 2031 or 2032 or so?

作為補充說明，我們知道過去幾年租約續約率一直處於歷史高點。您預計續約率何時會下降或趨於正常？你們現有車隊中有多少比例是因新冠疫情而租賃的車輛？你預計他們會在2031年或2032年左右逃離嗎？

Sure. Let me deal with the first part, and then I'll ask Pete to comment on the COVID leases. Extensions are elevated, you're right. There are two things driving that. The first is, of course, the airlines know that the OEMs won't deliver on time.

當然。讓我先處理第一部分，然後再請皮特對新冠疫情期間的租賃事宜發表評論。你說得對，接髮確實被抬高了。造成這種情況的原因有二。首先，航空公司當然知道原始設備製造商不會準時交貨。

As I said in my prepared comments, you just don't get surprises to the upside on aircraft production. So they know that and they know that it's not for a year or two years, it's structural for the long term. And that's why we have seen these elevated extension levels for several years now, and I expect them to persist.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，飛機生產方面不會出現意料之外的利好。所以他們知道這一點，也知道這不是一兩年的事，而是長期的結構性問題。這就是為什麼我們已經看到這種高位擴張水平持續了好幾年，而且我預計這種情況還會持續下去。

The second reason that I expect them to persist is that even when the technology delivers, what's happening is that because of the strain put on the engines and on the aircraft, they do not last as long in service before they need an overhaul as the previous generation of A320s or 737s or A330s or 777s.

我預計他們會堅持下去的第二個原因是，即使技術發展順利，但由於發動機和飛機承受的壓力，它們的使用壽命不如上一代 A320、737、A330 或 777 飛機長，需要進行大修。

And so therefore, in order to fly the same number of flights, if you need to fly -- if you're flying ten 737s, you might need 11 MAXs or 11 NEOs to do the same over the long run to accomplish the same number of flights because they do spend longer in the shop.

因此，為了完成相同數量的航班飛行，如果你需要飛行——如果你要駕駛十架 737，從長遠來看，你可能需要 11 架 MAX 或 11 架 NEO 才能完成相同的飛行數量，因為它們在維修廠的時間更長。

Now in time, I do expect the technology, which is always the case that there are technology improvements that will improve that time on wing, and the next one coming up will be the Pratt & Whitney Advantage Engine. We have the upgrades also to the LEAP-1A, which have begun. And similar upgrades we put into the LEAP-1B, they'll begin later this year. So steadily over time, we will see time on wing improve. But before those improvements flow through the whole fleet, which is massive, we'll be well into the 2030s.

現在，我期待技術能夠不斷進步，就像以往一樣，技術進步總是能夠提高飛機的飛行時間，而下一個即將問世的將是普惠公司的Advantage發動機。我們也對 LEAP-1A 進行了升級，目前升級工作已經開始。我們對 LEAP-1B 進行的類似升級，將於今年稍後開始。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到機上飛行時間穩定提高。但要讓這些改進惠及整個龐大的艦隊，恐怕要等到 2030 年代了。

And then to answer your question on the COVID part of our leases. So it's about 12% of our fleet today. And you're right, it will roll off over time, but it will pretty much be done by 2031, 2032.

然後回答您關於我們租賃合約中有關新冠疫情部分的問題。所以目前約占我們船隊的 12%。你說得對，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸消失，但到 2031 年、2032 年基本上就會結束。

Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.

Chris Stathoulopoulos，SIG。

Yes. Aengus, could you remind us -- so in your prepared remarks, you spoke about the normalization of supply-demand balance, and you don't see, I guess, monthly production rates meaningfully picking up. At your Investor Day, I believe you said end of decade, where you continue to see a supply shortage. And I think a quarter or two ago on a call in response to a question, it was the same. Has that changed?

是的。Aengus，你能提醒我們一下嗎？ ——在你準備好的發言稿中，你談到了供需平衡的正常化，但我想你並沒有看到月度生產力出現實質的上升。我相信您在投資者日上說過，到十年末，您仍然會看到供應短缺的情況。我覺得一兩個季度前，在一次電話會議上回答問題時，也是同樣的情況。情況有變化嗎？

And then could you also remind us at your Investor Day, you went into the economics of the engine market and why, I guess, the OEMs are really not incentivized to produce excess units given the, I guess, the initial sale and then the economics around servicing that in the secondary market.

那麼，您能否也提醒我們一下，在您的投資者日上，您談到了發動機市場的經濟狀況，以及為什麼，我想，考慮到初始銷售以及在二手市場提供服務的經濟效益，原始設備製造商並沒有動力生產過剩的發動機？

Sure. So with regards to the first part of the question, supply-demand and balance, I still -- I do believe that around 2030, Boeing and Airbus will probably pick up production to where it gets closer to meeting the demand. But that being said, it might be 2031 or 2032 or 2030.

當然。所以關於問題的第一部分，即供需平衡，我仍然相信，到 2030 年左右，波音和空中巴士可能會提高產量，使其更接近滿足需求。但話雖如此，也可能是 2031 年、2032 年或 2030 年。

But that being said, the other point that's very important to remember is what I just said on the previous question is that the technology being used is not as durable as the previous generation. Taking A330-300 with Rolls-Royce engines, that thing could go forever, our 777 GE90, they're just not as durable today because those engines, they're pushed much harder, they're running hotter, they're coming off wing more often, which means that the demand for aircraft, in my view, the OEMs just won't be able to meet it for many years to come, even when they get the basic production up.

但話雖如此，還有一點非常重要，那就是我剛才在上一個問題中提到的，目前使用的技術不如上一代技術耐用。以配備羅爾斯·羅伊斯發動機的A330-300為例，那玩意兒可以一直飛下去；而我們的777 GE90，如今的耐用性就沒那麼好了，因為這些發動機的負荷更大，運行溫度更高，更容易脫落，這意味著在我看來，即使飛機製造商能夠實現基本產能，在未來很多年飛機內的需求。

It's because once these assets are in service, they're just not lasting. They're not spending as much time in service as the previous generation. And that's a hidden aspect that is not as visible, obviously, as Boeing missing a production target. So in my view, I do believe that supply will be structurally limited for a very long time, well into the 2030s because of those two events.

這是因為這些資產一旦投入使用，它們的使用壽命就非常有限。他們服役的時間沒有上一代那麼多。而這顯然是一個隱藏的方面，不像波音公司未能達到生產目標那樣顯而易見。因此，我認為，由於這兩個事件的影響，供應將在很長一段時間內（直至 2030 年代）受到結構性限制。

The other thing, though, that's very important, as I referenced and you bring up from the Investor Day. We have never ever seen a significant period of oversupply of aircraft on a global basis in my career, which is 30-odd years, never happened. Why is that? Because airlines do go bust. And that was the case, of course, with all the US majors at some period of time.

不過，還有一件非常重要的事情，正如我在投資者日上提到的，也是你所提到的。在我三十多年的職業生涯中，我們從未見過全球範圍內出現過大規模的飛機供應過剩，這種情況從未發生過。這是為什麼？因為航空公司確實會破產。當然，這種情況在一段時間內對所有美國主要大學都存在過。

The reason is that, yes, a region can be oversupplied with aircraft due to a downturn in that region. But the engine OEM sells their engine on day 1, the day the aircraft is delivered for about 25% of cost or 30% of cost. The airframer, Boeing or Airbus, gets 100% of their revenue on day 1. Now the engine guy only makes money if those engines get to shop probably three times, once after maybe 8 years, once after 14 years, once at 18 years.

原因在於，確實，由於某個地區的經濟衰退，該地區可能會出現飛機過剩的情況。但發動機原始設備製造商會在飛機交付當天，也就是第一天，以成本的 25% 或 30% 的價格出售他們的發動機。飛機製造商，無論是波音還是空中巴士，都能在第一天就獲得 100% 的收入。現在，引擎維修工只有在這些引擎可能要進廠維修三次的情況下才能賺錢，一次是在 8 年左右，一次是在 14 年左右，一次是在 18 年左右。

The single most important thing any engine OEM does is that last shop visit when the aircraft is around 18 years of age. That is the most cash flow positive, highest margin thing they do. The least attractive thing they do is deliver a new engine to Boeing and Airbus.

對於任何發動機原始設備製造商來說，最重要的事情就是飛機服役約 18 年後進行的最後一次維修保養。這是他們所做的現金流最充裕、利潤最高的項目。他們最不吸引人的事情就是向波音和空中巴士交付新引擎。

So if they ever see, and this is the case for the last 30 years, a period of significant oversupply coming to the market, they will be the ones who will lose the most because oversupply of new aircraft will mean early retirement of old aircraft. Those old aircraft with the ones where that shop visits is performed on.

因此，如果他們看到（過去 30 年的情況就是如此），市場出現嚴重的供過於求，他們將是損失最大的人，因為新飛機的供過於求意味著舊飛機的提前退役。那些老舊飛機，就是需要進行維修保養的那種飛機。

So it's turkeys voting for Christmas, if they allow Boeing and Airbus to overproduce aircraft in a market where there is oversupply, and they have never ever done it, and I don't expect they will. And that's one of the key reasons on a macro basis why AerCap has produced such stable returns for decades, and I don't see that changing.

如果允許波音和空中巴士在供應過剩的市場中過度生產飛機，那就好比是火雞投票支持聖誕節一樣。而波音和空中巴士以前從未這樣做過，而且我認為他們以後也不會這樣做。從宏觀層面來看，這正是 AerCap 幾十年來能夠產生如此穩定回報的關鍵原因之一，我認為這種情況不會改變。

Great color. And I guess along those lines, if you could speak to -- I know there's been a few questions around capital allocation priorities this year and thoughts around, I guess, buybacks and acquisitions. But one of the things that I think is important and perhaps sometimes forgot about and what is unique and certainly shows up in your results here is this barbell approach to managing your portfolio. At a high level, could you just run that down for us? I think that's important for us to revisit, if you will.

顏色很棒。我想，就此而言，如果您能談談——我知道今年有一些關於資本配置優先事項的問題，以及關於股票回購和收購的想法。但我認為很重要的一點，也許有時會被遺忘，也是你們的成果中獨具特色並得以體現的一點，就是這種槓鈴式投資組合管理方法。你能給我們概括一下嗎？我認為有必要重新審視這個問題。

Certainly. And when we sell assets, we're not selling them to generate a gain. Of course, when we decide to sell an asset, we want to maximize, to the greatest extent possible, how much we get for the asset. But the driver is to look at where the portfolio will be.

當然。而且，我們出售資產並不是為了獲取收益。當然，當我們決定出售一項資產時，我們希望盡可能地最大化我們從該資產中獲得的收益。但關鍵在於要考慮投資組合的未來方向。

And so in the barbell approach, as you rightly say, the way we want the portfolio to be is if we have older technology assets like the 73, the A320, the 777, A330, we want them to be old assets. We do not want young variants of those assets. At some point, the 777 and the A330s and the A320s will be replaced in large part by the neos, by the MAXs, by the 78s, et cetera. It hasn't happened just yet, but it will happen at some point in the future.

因此，正如您所說，在槓鈴策略中，​​我們希望投資組合的組成是，如果我們擁有像 73、A320、777、A330 這樣的老舊技術資產，我們希望它們是老舊資產。我們不需要這些資產的衍生性商品。在某個時候，777、A330 和 A320 將會在很大程度上被 neo、MAX、78 等機型所取代。雖然現在還沒有發生，但將來某個時候一定會發生。

And so if you have, say, a 2017, A320 or 777, for that aircraft to return a fair cost of capital over the lifespan, it has to still be in service in 2042 if you bought it in 2017 because it's 25 years of service. I simply do not believe that, that will be the case. At some point in the 2030s, the demand for those assets will fall off. And therefore, you do not want to have a young variants of those assets.

因此，如果你擁有一架 2017 年的 A320 或 777，為了讓這架飛機在其使用壽命內收回合理的資本成本，如果你在 2017 年購買了它，那麼它在 2042 年仍然必須服役，因為它的使用壽命為 25 年。我根本不相信會是這樣。到 2030 年代的某個時候，對這些資產的需求將會下降。因此，你不希望擁有這些資產的年輕版本。

Now having an old variant that's 18 years old of an A330 or 737 or 320, that's perfectly fine because you're going to get another five years or six years, five-odd years out of it and you'll do just fine off the asset.

現在，如果你擁有一架機齡 18 年的 A330、737 或 320 的老舊機型，那完全沒問題，因為你還能再用五六年，再過五六年，這筆資產就能為你帶來不錯的收益。

And then when it comes to buying assets, what we want to make sure is that we're in the assets of the future, the ones that we believe the most durable demand is out there, and that's where we invest in the A321neo, A320neo, 737 MAX 8, 787-9, A330-900, A350-900.

至於購買資產，我們希望確保投資的是未來的資產，是我們認為需求最持久的資產，因此我們投資了A321neo、A320neo、737 MAX 8、787-9、A330-900、A350-900。

I'd like to now turn the call back over to our speakers for any final or closing remarks.

現在我想把電話交還給各位發言人，請他們作最後的總結發言。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us for the call, and we look forward to speaking to you again in three months' time.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝各位參與本次通話，我們期待三個月後再次與您通話。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。