AerCap Holdings NV (AER) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the AerCap Holdings N.V. Q1 2024 Financial Results. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website.

美好的一天，歡迎閱讀 AerCap Holdings N.V. 2024 年第一季財務業績。今天的會議正在錄製中，會議記錄將在公司網站上發布。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Joseph McGinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

這次，我想將會議交給投資人關係主管 Joseph McGinley。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2024 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly; and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas.

謝謝接線員，大家好。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第一季電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的執行長 Aengus Kelly；以及我們的財務長 Pete Juhas。

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information or circumstances that arise after this call.

在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的一些陳述並非歷史事實，可能是前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果或事件與此類陳述中明示或暗示的結果或事件有重大差異。除法律規定外，AerCap 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映本次電話會議後發生的未來事件、資訊或情況的義務。

Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated May 1, 2024. A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and we'll allow time at the end for Q&A. As a reminder, I would ask that analysts limit themselves to one question and one follow-up.

有關可能對業績產生重大影響的問題的更多信息，請參閱 AerCap 2024 年 5 月 1 日發布的收益報告。該電話會議向公眾開放，並在 aercap.com 上同時進行網路直播，並將存檔以供重播。我們很快就會完成我們的收益演示，並在最後留出時間進行問答。提醒一下，我會要求分析師將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。

I will now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

我現在將把電話轉給安格斯凱利。

Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2021 earnings call. I am pleased to report that the AerCap platform has delivered another quarter of consistent earnings and profitability. During the first quarter, we generated $3.29 of adjusted earnings per share, up 40% over last year and adjusted net income of $658 million. Importantly, we continued our consistent increases in book value per share which was up 27% year-on-year to $87.47. As a result of this strong first quarter performance and the improving outlook, we are increasing our full year 2024 guidance to approximately $9.20 per share.

感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。我很高興地報告，AerCap 平台又一個季度實現了穩定的收益和盈利能力。第一季度，我們調整後每股收益為 3.29 美元，比去年同期成長 40%，調整後淨利為 6.58 億美元。重要的是，我們的每股帳面價值持續成長，年增 27% 至 87.47 美元。由於第一季強勁的業績和不斷改善的前景，我們將 2024 年全年指引提高至每股約 9.20 美元。

As I mentioned on our last call, the focus of the entire AerCap management team is on maximizing value for you, our shareholders, to earnings per share and book value per share growth, not just for an individual quarter, but for the long term.

正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，整個AerCap 管理團隊的重點是為您（我們的股東）實現每股收益和每股賬面價值增長的價值最大化，不僅僅是單個季度的價值，而是長期的價值。

On the operational side, which underpins everything we do, the platform continues to work well, executing 152 transactions in the quarter. Demand for travel continues to rise, particularly in China, where new passenger records were set in the first quarter. Airlines in China grew almost 180 million people in Q1, including 14 million international trips, which is still 22% behind the 2019 international levels. The continued supply-demand imbalance creates significant pricing tensions where we regularly have multiple bidders for available aircraft.

在支撐我們所做一切的營運方面，該平台繼續運作良好，本季執行了 152 筆交易。旅行需求持續成長，特別是在中國，第一季創下了新的旅客紀錄。第一季度，中國航空公司客運量成長近 1.8 億人次，其中國際旅行 1,400 萬人次，仍比 2019 年國際水準低 22%。持續的供需不平衡造成了嚴重的價格緊張，我們經常有多個競標者購買可用的飛機。

On the used aircraft side, we signed lease agreements for A320ceo, Embraer E1s, 737 Freighters and 777s. On the new side, demand remains robust. We are sold out entirely on 787s, A320neos, Embraer E2s and Airbus A220s with enviable slots on the A320neos and 737 MAX programs. Frankly, the most challenging issue we face is trying to predict with certainty the month or even quarter that these new aircraft will actually deliver from the manufacturers.

在二手飛機方面，我們簽署了A320ceo、巴西航空工業公司E1、737貨機和777飛機的租賃協議。另一方面，需求依然強勁。我們的 787、A320neos、Embraer E2 和空中巴士 A220 飛機均已售罄，並且在 A320neos 和 737 MAX 項目上擁有令人羨慕的席位。坦白說，我們面臨的最具挑戰性的問題是試圖準確地預測這些新飛機將在哪個月甚至哪個季度從製造商那裡實際交付。

Turning to the engine business. It continues to present opportunities reflected in healthy activity in the period, and I look forward to discussing this subject with you next week. Finally, on the helicopter side, we saw good demand in the first quarter for our Sikorsky 92s where we signed up extensions and new agreements with a number of operators.

轉向引擎業務。它繼續提供反映在此期間健康活動的機會，我期待下週與您討論這個主題。最後，在直升機方面，我們在第一季看到了對西科斯基 92 的良好需求，我們與許多營運商簽署了延期協議和新協議。

In summary, this was another strong quarter for AerCap. Demand remains robust, cash generation is strong, and earnings per share grew by over 40% year-on-year. The company and industry continues to benefit from a positive macro backdrop and we are well positioned to take advantage of us for the years to come.

總而言之，這是 AerCap 又一個強勁的季度。需求依然強勁，現金產生強勁，每股盈餘較去年同期成長超過40%。公司和行業繼續受益於積極的宏觀背景，我們已做好充分準備在未來幾年中利用我們的優勢。

With that, I will hand it over to Pete before we have the Q&A session. Thank you.

這樣，我將在問答環節之前將其交給皮特。謝謝。

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. Our GAAP net income for the first quarter was $604 million or $3.02 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $86 million for the quarter. That included lease premium amortization of $33 million, which reduced basic lease rents, maintenance rights amortization of $35 million, which reduced maintenance revenue and maintenance rights and lease premium amortization of $17 million, which increased leasing expenses.

謝謝，格斯。大家，早安。我們第一季的 GAAP 淨利潤為 6.04 億美元，即每股 3.02 美元。本季採購會計調整的影響為 8,600 萬美元。其中包括3,300 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷（減少了基本租賃租金）、3,500 萬美元的維護權攤銷（減少了維護收入）以及1,700 萬美元的維護權和租賃溢價攤銷（增加了租賃費用） 。

During the first quarter, we recognized $23 million of net recoveries, which is included in net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict. The tax effect of the purchase accounting adjustments and net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict was $9 million. So taking all of that into account, our adjusted net income for the first quarter was $658 million or $3.29 per share.

第一季度，我們確認了 2,300 萬美元的淨追回金額，其中包括與烏克蘭衝突相關的淨追回金額。與烏克蘭衝突相關的採購會計調整和淨追回的稅收影響為 900 萬美元。因此，考慮到所有這些，我們第一季調整後的淨利潤為 6.58 億美元，即每股 3.29 美元。

I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results for the first quarter. Basic lease rents were $1.586 billion, an increase of $10 million from last quarter. As I mentioned, basic lease rents reflected $33 million of lease premium amortization, which reduces basic lease rents. Lease premium assets are amortized over the remaining term of the lease as a reduction to basic lease rents.

我將簡要介紹影響我們第一季業績的主要驅動因素。基本租賃租金為15.86億美元，較上季增加1,000萬美元。正如我所提到的，基本租賃租金反映了 3300 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷，這減少了基本租賃租金。租賃溢價資產在剩餘租賃期間攤銷，作為基本租賃租金的減少。

Maintenance revenues for the first quarter were $179 million and that reflects $35 million of maintenance rights assets that were amortized to maintenance revenue during the quarter. So in other words, maintenance revenue would have been $35 million higher or $214 million without this amortization. Maintenance revenues were higher than normal during the quarter due to cash collections and the timing of maintenance events. Net gain on sale of assets was $160 million for the quarter. We sold 43 of our owned assets during the first quarter for total sales revenue of $920 million. That resulted in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 21% for the first quarter. As of March 31, we had $459 million worth of assets held for sale.

第一季的維護收入為 1.79 億美元，其中包括本季攤提至維護收入的 3,500 萬美元的維護權資產。換句話說，如果沒有此項攤銷，維護收入將增加 3,500 萬美元，即 2.14 億美元。由於現金回收和維護活動的時間安排，本季的維護收入高於正常水準。該季度資產出售淨收益為 1.6 億美元。第一季我們出售了 43 項自有資產，總銷售收入達 9.2 億美元。這使得第一季的無槓桿銷售利潤率成長了 21%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們持有待售資產價值 4.59 億美元。

Other income was $93 million for the quarter, which consisted primarily of interest income and certain onetime items. Interest expenses was $492 million which included $3 million of mark-to-market losses on interest rate derivatives. Leasing expenses were $149 million for the quarter, including $17 million in maintenance rights and lease premium amortization expenses. Income tax expense for the first quarter was $94 million, which represented an effective tax rate of 14.3%. That included a discrete tax benefit of $8 million that we recognized in the quarter. Excluding this tax benefit, our effective tax rate was 15.5%.

該季度的其他收入為 9,300 萬美元，主要包括利息收入和某些一次性項目。利息支出為 4.92 億美元，其中包括 300 萬美元的利率衍生性商品按市值計算的損失。本季租賃費用為 1.49 億美元，其中包括 1,700 萬美元的維護權和租賃溢價攤銷費用。第一季所得稅費用為 9,400 萬美元，有效稅率為 14.3%。其中包括我們在本季確認的 800 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。排除此稅收優惠，我們的有效稅率為 15.5%。

We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of March 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $19 billion, which resulted in the next 12 months sources-to-uses coverage ratio of 1.7x. That remains well above our target of 1.2x coverage and represents excess cash coverage of around $8 billion. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.4:1, a decrease from 2.47:1 at the end of 2023. Our operating cash flow was approximately $1.4 billion for the first quarter driven by continued strong cash collections. Our secured debt-to-total assets ratio was around 14% at the end of March in line with prior quarters. Our average cost of debt was 3.9% for the first quarter and during the first quarter, we repurchased 4.3 million shares at an average price of $77.89 for a total of $336 million.

我們持續保持強勁的流動性狀況。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的流動性來源總額約為 190 億美元，這導致未來 12 個月的來源與使用覆蓋率達到 1.7 倍。這仍然遠高於我們 1.2 倍覆蓋率的目標，這意味著超額現金覆蓋率約為 80 億美元。本季末我們的槓桿率為 2.4:1，低於 2023 年末的 2.47:1。截至 3 月底，我們的擔保債務與總資產的比率約為 14%，與前幾季持平。第一季我們的平均負債成本為 3.9%，第一季我們以 77.89 美元的平均價格回購了 430 萬股股票，總金額為 3.36 億美元。

Our book value per share as of March 31 was $87.47, an increase of 27% over the last 12 months. In February, we projected adjusted earnings per share of $7.50 to $8.50 for the full year 2024 before any gains on sale. Given the strong performance this quarter, including higher maintenance revenues, we're raising our guidance to the top end of that range. So we now expect adjusted EPS before any gains on sale of approximately $8.50 for the full year 2024. We had around $0.70 of gains on sale in the first quarter. So when we add those gains, that takes us to a new estimate of approximately $9.20 of EPS for the full year 2024, not including any gains on sales for the remainder of the year.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的每股帳面價值為 87.47 美元，比過去 12 個月成長了 27%。 2 月份，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後每股收益為 7.50 美元至 8.50 美元（不計任何出售收益）。鑑於本季度的強勁表現，包括更高的維護收入，我們將我們的指導提高到該範圍的上限。因此，我們現在預計 2024 年全年調整後的不計銷售收益的每股收益約為 8.50 美元。因此，當我們添加這些收益時，我們對 2024 年全年每股收益的新估計約為 9.20 美元，不包括今年剩餘時間的任何銷售收益。

So overall, the strong performance that we had in 2023 has continued in the first quarter of 2024, and you can see that in our results. We continue to see a strong environment for leasing as well as for aircraft sales, which was reflected in the gain on sale margin this quarter. We also continue to generate a significant amount of excess capital during the quarter and ended with a leverage ratio of 2.4:1. With these strong results and a positive outlook going forward, we're now raising our guidance to the top end of our previous range.

總體而言，我們在 2023 年的強勁表現在 2024 年第一季得到了延續，您可以在我們的業績中看到這一點。我們繼續看到租賃和飛機銷售的強勁環境，這反映在本季銷售利潤率的成長中。本季我們也持續產生大量超額資本，最終槓桿率為 2.4:1。憑藉這些強勁的業績和積極的前景，我們現在將我們的指導提高到先前範圍的上限。

And with that, operator, we can now open up the call for Q&A.

這樣，接線員，我們現在就可以開始問答了。

Thank you. Given the company is hosting the Capital Markets Day next week, we ask the analysts focus their question on today's call on the quarter. (Operator Instructions). We'll go first to Terry Ma with Barclays.

謝謝。鑑於該公司下週將舉辦資本市場日，我們要求分析師將他們的問題集中在今天的季度電話會議上。 （操作員說明）。我們首先請教巴克萊銀行的特里·馬。

Your net spread was down about 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter. But if I remember correctly, I think PBH should have been a 30 basis point impact. So maybe just walk through the moving pieces to net spread this quarter and maybe just the outlook for the rest of the year?

您的淨利差季減約 10 個基點。但如果我沒記錯的話，我認為 PBH 應該是 30 個基點的影響。那麼，也許只是回顧一下本季淨利差的變化，也許只是回顧一下今年剩餘時間的前景？

Sure. So you're right. We had mentioned last quarter that PBH would have an impact on net spread and it was down 10 basis points relative to last quarter. So that's a little less than we had expected and that was due to having some more PBH rents in the quarter than we had initially expected. So that will drop off a little bit next quarter. I do think it's worthwhile mentioning though that we aren't managing to net spread. That is -- obviously, it's a metric that we look at, but it's not something that we manage to specifically.

當然。所以你是對的。上季我們曾提到PBH會對淨利差產生影響，淨利差較上季下降了10個基點。因此，這比我們的預期要少一些，這是因為本季 PBH 的租金比我們最初的預期要高。因此，下個季度這一數字將會下降。我確實認為值得一提的是，我們未能達到淨利差。也就是說，顯然，這是我們關注的指標，但它不是我們專門管理的東西。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you guys raised the guide ex gain on sale toward the high end, but it just still feels pretty conservative to me just given what you did in Q1, I understand there were some onetime items. So maybe can you just walk through what's contemplated in the guide for the rest of the year? And maybe just speak to where the areas of conservatism are?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後你們將銷售指南的前收益提高到了高端，但考慮到你們在第一季所做的事情，我仍然感覺相當保守，我知道有一些一次性物品。那麼，也許您可以簡單介紹一下指南中今年剩餘時間的預期內容嗎？也許只是談談保守主義的領域在哪裡？

Sure. Well, I'd say, across the board, if you look back at the line items that I presented last quarter, I'd say, we're pretty similar on most of them for the full year. We did have some higher maintenance revenue during the first quarter. That was due to higher cash collections as well as the timing of events. And as we've talked about many times, maintenance can move around, that can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. So maintenance came in a little stronger in the first quarter. We had a little bit higher other income in the first quarter as well. So those were some of the drivers and a small tax benefit that I mentioned. So those were some of the things that helped in the first quarter.

當然。好吧，我想說，總的來說，如果你回顧我上季度提出的項目，我會說，我們全年的大部分項目都非常相似。第一季我們的維護收入確實有所增加。這是由於現金回收量增加以及活動時間安排所致。正如我們多次談到的，維護工作可能會四處移動，每個季度的情況可能會很不穩定。因此，第一季的維護工作有所加強。第一季我們的其他收入也有所增加。這些就是我提到的一些驅動因素和小額稅收優惠。這些是第一季有幫助的一些事情。

I'd say, as we look out for the rest of the year, and I mentioned this when we gave the guidance on the last earnings call, we do have some contingencies in there for defaults and things like that. And so those are still in there, and we've kept them in for the rest of the year. Hopefully, we'll do better than those. But at this point, we haven't changed any of that.

我想說，當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我在上次財報電話會議上提供指導時提到了這一點，我們確實有一些違約等意外情況。所以這些仍然在那裡，我們在今年剩下的時間裡都將它們保留在裡面。希望我們能做得比他們更好。但目前，我們還沒有改變任何這一點。

We'll go next to Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將與摩根大通一起去傑米·貝克。

Gus, I was hoping you could give us an example of where lease rates are coming in now on late 2025 expiring deals or even early 2026, relative to the economics that were captured in today's results. We're always being asked about the lag time between signing deals and when it is the income statement. Obviously, a portion of today's results were locked in, what, 18 to 24 months ago. Just hoping for a nice clean example, apples-to-apples. So I don't know, 10-year, 320s renewals are coming in now for leases that aren't going to hit until late next year.

Gus，我希望您能給我們一個例子，說明相對於今天的業績中所體現的經濟情況，2025 年末甚至 2026 年初到期交易的租賃率。我們總是被問到簽署交易和損益表之間的延遲時間。顯然，今天的部分結果是鎖定在 18 到 24 個月前的。只是希望有一個很好的乾淨的例子，蘋果對蘋果。所以我不知道，10 年期、320 年代的續約現在即將到來，而這些租約要到明年年底才會生效。

Well, Jamie, the good news is we're going to answer that in detail next week at the Investor Day. Peter Anderson, our Chief Commercial Officer, is going to give examples of 320s, 787s, which are our main aircraft types to make up more than the majority of our fleet. And he'll show you there the rate of increase and how it will -- when it will come into the revenue line. We encourage you all (inaudible) next week.

好吧，傑米，好消息是我們將在下週的投資者日詳細回答這個問題。我們的商務長 Peter Anderson 將舉出 320 和 787 的例子，它們是我們的主要飛機類型，占我們機隊的大部分。他將向您展示成長率以及成長率如何—何時進入收入線。我們鼓勵大家（聽不清楚）下週。

No, we'll be there. That's helpful. I mean, I'm sure you agree. I mean, I think that's the way, at least most of my investors are trying to think about it. So you've given us something to look forward to. So a quick follow-up. On the 35 aircraft that you sold in the quarter, can you comment on any sort of geographic skew? I think in past quarters, we saw a bit of a sort of a North American emphasis. Just wondering if that's still the case, I realize it wasn't an enormous number of aircraft?

不，我們會在那裡。這很有幫助。我的意思是，我確信你同意。我的意思是，我認為就是這樣，至少我的大多數投資者都在努力思考這一點。所以你給了我們一些值得期待的東西。所以快速跟進。對於您在本季度售出的 35 架飛機，您能否對任何地理偏差發表評論？我認為在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到了北美的一些重點。只是想知道情況是否仍然如此，我意識到這不是大量的飛機？

Well, it was widespread. But again, as we've mentioned in prior quarters, our exposure into China is coming down by dollar value, that would have been the biggest component of sales would have been China-based sales.

嗯，這很普遍。但同樣，正如我們在前幾個季度提到的，我們對中國的投資正在按美元價值下降，這將是銷售額的最大組成部分是基於中國的銷售額。

Okay. Helpful. See you next week.

好的。有幫助。下週見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to Hillary Cacanando with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將與德意志銀行一起討論希拉蕊‧卡卡南多 (Hillary Cacanando)。

Could you buy back any shares so far in the second quarter? And in your guidance, are you assuming repurchases of $500 million authorized last quarter and perhaps any other repurchases beyond that in your guidance? And also, I was wondering if you will consider paying a dividend as well, given that leverage declines seem to be outpacing maybe the ability to buy back shares?

到目前為止，您能在第二季回購任何股票嗎？在您的指導中，您是否假設上季度授權回購 5 億美元，以及除您的指導之外的任何其他回購？另外，我想知道您是否也會考慮支付股息，因為槓桿率下降的速度似乎超過了回購股票的能力？

Sure. Hillary, thanks. So we've bought back around 1.2 million shares in the second quarter so far. So year-to-date, that's about 5.5 million shares for about $435 million. In terms of the guidance that we've provided, so we've assumed that we would spend our full authorization for the year. So we've got around $350 million left in that. And then also, just as we generate excess capital, we would assume that we would deploy a lot of that as well for share repurchases during the year. Obviously, the amount that we do ultimately will depend on how much -- how we perform, how much excess capital we generate and also other opportunities as well. So that's really where that stands. And then, I guess in terms of thinking about capital allocation, that is something that we'll talk about next week as well, I think, further.

當然。希拉里，謝謝。到目前為止，我們在第二季已經回購了約 120 萬股股票。今年迄今為止，該股已發行約 550 萬股，價值約 4.35 億美元。根據我們提供的指導，我們假設我們將用完今年的全部授權。所以我們還剩下大約 3.5 億美元。此外，正如我們產生過剩資本一樣，我們假設我們也會在年內部署大量資本用於股票回購。顯然，我們最終所做的金額將取決於我們的表現、我們產生多少超額資本以及其他機會。這就是實際情況。然後，我想在考慮資本配置方面，我認為這也是我們下週將進一步討論的問題。

Okay. Got it. And then there was an article in the journal this morning saying that Embraer is exploring plans to introduce that aircraft to rival Boeing 737 and A321 in the narrow-body market according to sources. So kind of -- just wanted to get your thoughts on how likely you think that is and if you think that would be good for the market to have another player come in and ultimately, would that be good for the net [worth]?

好的。知道了。消息人士透露，今天早上該雜誌上有一篇文章稱，巴西航空工業公司正在探索推出該飛機的計劃，以在窄體市場上與波音 737 和 A321 競爭。那麼，只是想了解一下您認為這種情況發生的可能性有多大，以及您是否認為讓另一名球員加入對市場有利，最終，這對淨[價值]有利嗎？

I mean, Hillary, I think over the long term, it may well be helpful. However, I doubt we will see anything in material numbers before the end of the 2030s. It's just impossible to develop a new aircraft, particularly if you need a new engine technology, you would have to be well down the track already to have that delivering this side of 2030. So that's not happening. It will be mid 2030s at best if they even do it. The financial resources required to do that are extraordinary to compete with the capability of Airbus and Boeing, I think it's a long shot to be honest. And even if it does come off, I don't think it will be relevant for the next 15 years.

我的意思是，希拉里，我認為從長遠來看，這可能會有所幫助。然而，我懷疑在 2030 年代末之前我們能否看到任何實質的數字。開發新飛機是不可能的，特別是如果您需要新的引擎技術，那麼您必須已經走在正軌上才能在 2030 年實現這一目標。即使他們做到了，最多也要到 2030 年代中期。要與空中巴士和波音的能力競爭，要做到這一點所需的財政資源非常多，老實說，我認為可能性很小。即使它確實成功了，我認為它在未來 15 年也不會產生任何影響。

Got it. Just one quick follow-up question. Where does China's Comac stand in terms of like the people's perception of that and like where you think that product is going?

知道了。只是一個快速的後續問題。就人們的看法以及您認為產品的發展方向而言，中國商飛處於什麼位置？

Well, you've seen the announcements of recent sale to the Chinese majors, Comac. Again, though, you must bear in mind that this is such a long, long journey to become a global player in aerospace manufacturing. They have one airplane today that is a technology shift behind the neo and the MAX. For them to compete within neo and the MAX, they would have to have 3 or 4 aircraft in the same family. That's not even in development yet. So again, to my point, we all hope there will be competition, but I suspect it would be well into the late 2030s, and maybe mid-2030s given they have an airplane in operation before -- I think it's late 2030s, to be honest, before -- like in Brazil, you would have a global competitor to Boeing and Airbus, and that's the best case.

好吧，您已經看到了最近向中國商飛公司出售的公告。不過，您必須再次記住，要成為航空航太製造領域的全球參與者，這是一個非常漫長的旅程。他們今天擁有一架飛機，它是 Neo 和 MAX 背後的技術轉變。為了讓他們在 neo 和 MAX 中競爭，他們必須在同一個系列中擁有 3 或 4 架飛機。那甚至還沒有在開發中。所以，就我的觀點而言，我們都希望會有競爭，但我懷疑這將是2030 年代末，也許是2030 年代中期，因為他們之前就有一架飛機在運作——我認為現在是2030 年代末，老實說，以前——就像在巴西一樣，你會有波音和空中巴士的全球競爭對手，這是最好的情況。

We'll go next to Helane Becker with TD Cowen.

接下來我們將與 TD Cowen 一起前往 Helane Becker。

Thanks very much, operator. Pete, I was just wondering about the assets held for sale increasing from 296 at the end of the year to 459. Can you just give us some color on what those assets are, what families they're in, et cetera?

非常感謝，接線生。 Pete，我只是想知道待售資產從年底的 296 項增加到 459 項。

Sure. Well, it's just -- it's mainly aircraft. It's primarily aircraft and some engines that are included in those assets held for sale. And those are assets that we would plan -- I mean, we would expect most of those sales to come through next quarter. Obviously, you never know exactly what the timing of that will be, but I would expect probably over the next 2 quarters that most of those would be completed.

當然。嗯，主要是飛機。這些待售資產主要包括飛機和一些引擎。這些是我們計劃的資產——我的意思是，我們預計大部分銷售將在下個季度完成。顯然，你永遠不知道具體的時間是什麼，但我預計其中大部分將在接下來的兩個季度內完成。

Okay. And then my follow-up question is just on the earnings as you think about it and maybe you'll talk about this next week. We get 2 major questions. One is on capital allocation, which you already addressed that you'll talk about it next week. And the other is on how it gets better from here. And maybe you answered that in Jamie's question that you'll speak to it next week. But that's another question we get from investors. Like how does -- how do you go from 320 in earnings this first quarter to a better number in the first quarter of '25?

好的。然後我的後續問題只是關於你所考慮的利益，也許你會在下週討論這個問題。我們有兩個主要問題。一是關於資本配置，您已經提到過，下週將討論這個問題。另一個是如何從這裡變得更好。也許你在傑米的問題中回答說你將在下週談到這個問題。但這是我們從投資者那裡得到的另一個問題。例如，你如何將第一季的獲利從 320 提高到 25 年第一季的更好數字？

Well, Helane, we'll talk about both of those topics next week. Of course, I would always look to the history of this company, and you've seen the tremendous stability of our earnings over a very long period of time to various different issues, but we will talk about the outlook for the business extensively next week. So once again, I'd encourage you all to be at The Pierre.

好吧，海蘭，我們下週將討論這兩個主題。當然，我會一直關注這家公司的歷史，並且您已經看到我們的收益在很長一段時間內對各種不同問題的巨大穩定性，但我們將在下週廣泛討論業務前景。因此，我再次鼓勵大家來到皮埃爾酒店。

Thanks, team. I appreciate the time.

謝謝，團隊。我很感激時間。

Sure. Thanks, Helane.

當然。謝謝，海蘭。

We'll go next to Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna International Group.

接下來我們將與 Susquehanna International Group 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos 進行對話。

In your prepared remarks, you spoke about, I guess, managing the timetable for deliveries. And that's a question I've gotten recently, but I'm pretty sure you've addressed this on your last, if not the call before that. So if you could just kind of walk us through how you're managing that risk around deliveries? And is there a risk that carriers could potentially cancel orders or defer them as they look to smooth out or derisk their order books?

我想，在您準備好的演講中，您談到了管理交付時間表。這是我最近收到的問題，但我很確定你在最後一次通話中（如果不是之前的通話中）已經解決了這個問題。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您是如何管理交付風險的呢？承運商在尋求平滑訂單或降低訂單風險時是否有取消訂單或延遲訂單的風險？

The concern with the late delivery, I would say, the concern is more about the unknown delivery. When it's late and you can trust the data that you're given, airlines can tend to plan around it. The challenge is when the target is moving and even moving very close in, it can be far more difficult for an airline. For example, if you were expecting to get an aircraft for the summer, and now you don't get until November. The airline will say, "I don't really want it in November. I needed it for the summer. That's when I make my money. I lose money in the fourth quarter and the first quarter." That's the real challenge for our airline customer base and to smooth out those late deliveries that fall from the periods of the year where they wanted -- when they all wanted.

我想說，對延遲交貨的擔憂，更多的是對未知交貨的擔憂。當時間晚了並且您可以信任所提供的數據時，航空公司可以傾向於圍繞它進行計劃。挑戰在於，當目標正在移動，甚至非常接近時，對於航空公司來說可能會困難得多。例如，如果您原本希望在夏季購買一架飛機，但現在要到 11 月才能買到。航空公司會說，“我並不是真的想要十一月。我夏天需要它。那時我賺錢。我在第四季度和第一季虧損。”這對我們的航空公司客戶群來說是真正的挑戰，要消除那些在一年中他們想要的時間段（他們都想要的時間）發生的延遲交付。

Now and we work with the airline and the OEMs around those issues. To the second part of your question, can the airlines cancel the aircraft? Yes, they can after a period of time and certain conditions have been met. However, we have a back-to-back cancellation right with the manufacturers. So if that were to come to pass, we would not be exposed. But we would certain -- at the moment, we don't see that happening. There is a global shortage of aircraft and we'll talk about that extensively next week as well and what our outlook is on the supply side of aircraft and also how the MRO situation is affecting the demand for aircraft.

現在，我們與航空公司和原始設備製造商合作解決這些問題。關於你問題的第二部分，航空公司可以取消飛機嗎？是的，在一段時間並且滿足某些條件後他們可以。然而，我們與製造商有連續取消的權利。因此，如果這真的發生，我們就不會暴露。但我們可以肯定的是，目前我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。全球範圍內存在飛機短缺問題，我們下週也將廣泛討論這個問題，以及我們對飛機供應方面的前景以及 MRO 情況如何影響飛機需求。

Okay. And then on the $160 million in gains on sale in 1Q, could you just walk us through what you're seeing in the secondary market if there's perhaps certain aircraft in vintage that are doing better. Any color around the various pieces of the sales in the quarter would be helpful?

好的。然後，關於第一季 1.6 億美元的銷售收益，您能否向我們介紹您在二級市場上看到的情況，是否有某些老式飛機表現更好。本季度銷售的各個部分的任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

Well, that's one area I'm going to tell in quite a bit of detail next week to try to explain to you all how the different things that are happening in the market are impacting different aircraft values and engine value. So again, I would encourage you to come along next week where we'll have a more extensive discussion around that and the factors that are driving aircraft values higher.

好吧，這是我下週將詳細介紹的一個領域，試圖向大家解釋市場上發生的不同事情如何影響不同的飛機價值和引擎價值。因此，我再次鼓勵您下週參加，我們將圍繞這個問題以及推動飛機價值更高的因素進行更廣泛的討論。

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Aengus Kelly for closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給安格斯凱利（Aengus Kelly）致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call. In closing, AerCap has produced another excellent quarter of earnings and cash flows. And as I referenced, we're hosting our 2024 Capital Markets Day in New York next week on May 8. And we hope to see as many of you as possible at the event, where you'll also get a chance to hear from a broad selection of the AerCap management team. So thank you very much.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家加入我們的通話。最後，AerCap 又創造了一個出色的季度利潤和現金流。正如我所提到的，我們將於下週 5 月 8 日在紐約舉辦 2024 年資本市場日。管理團隊的廣泛選擇。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。