AerCap Holdings NV (AER) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to AerCap's Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results. Today's conference is being recorded and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 AerCap 的 2022 年第四季度財務業績。今天的會議正在錄製中，通話後將在公司網站上提供文字記錄。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Joseph McGinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Joseph McGinley。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and hello everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly; and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information or circumstances that arise after this call.

謝謝接線員，大家好。歡迎來到我們 2022 年第四季度的電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席執行官 Aengus Kelly；以及我們的首席財務官 Pete Juhas。在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議中發表的一些並非歷史事實的陳述可能是前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果或事件與此類陳述中明示或暗示的結果或事件存在重大差異。除了法律規定的公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映本次電話會議後出現的未來事件、信息或情況之外，AerCap 不承擔任何義務。

Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated March 2, 2023. A copy of our earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q&A. As a reminder, I would ask that analysts limit themselves to 1 and 1 follow -up.

有關可能對業績產生重大影響的問題的更多信息，請參閱 AerCap 於 2023 年 3 月 2 日發布的收益報告。我們的收益報告和電話會議演示文稿的副本可在我們的網站 aercap.com 上獲取。此電話會議向公眾開放，並在 aercap.com 上同時進行網絡直播，並將存檔以供重播。我們將很快完成我們的收益介紹，並在最後留出時間進行問答。提醒一下，我會要求分析師將自己限制在 1 次和 1 次跟進中。

I will now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

我現在將把電話轉給 Aengus Kelly。

Thank you for joining us for our full year 2022 earnings call. I am pleased to report another quarter of strong earnings for AerCap. We generated adjusted net income of $645 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.66 in the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, this amounted to adjusted net income of $2.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $9.01 surpassing our previous estimate of $8.00 to $8.50, which we updated in November 2022. This strong performance across all our business lines reflects how well our teams are working together to execute an extraordinary number of transactions. This level of transaction activity clearly demonstrates the success of the GECAS acquisition, the integration of the 2 companies and the recovery in aviation. Cash generation also remains high exceeding $5 billion of operating cash flow for the year despite the impact of Russia, which helped us achieve a debt to equity ratio of 2.5x at December 31, 2022.

感謝您加入我們的 2022 年全年財報電話會議。我很高興地報告 AerCap 又一個季度的強勁收益。第四季度調整後淨收入為 6.45 億美元，調整後每股收益為 2.66 美元。按全年計算，調整後淨收入為 22 億美元，調整後每股收益為 9.01 美元，超過了我們在 2022 年 11 月更新的先前估計 8.00 美元至 8.50 美元。我們所有業務線的強勁表現反映了我們的良好表現團隊正在共同努力執行大量交易。這種交易活動水平清楚地證明了 GECAS 收購的成功、兩家公司的整合以及航空業的複蘇。儘管俄羅斯的影響幫助我們在 2022 年 12 月 31 日實現了 2.5 倍的債務股本比率，但今年的現金產生量仍然高於 50 億美元的運營現金流。

Given these strong earnings and cash flows, I am pleased to announce the new $500 million share repurchase program today. Continuing the theme of prior quarters, the environment for aircraft leasing continues to strengthen and will be further supported by the ongoing reopening of China. AerCap's level of activity in 2022 is unparalleled in the industry, completing 895 transactions over the course of the year. In the fourth quarter alone, the AerCap team completed a record 299 transactions across 159 lease agreements, 43 and 97 sales. Without the flawless integration of the 2 companies, this level of transaction activity simply would not have been possible nor would it have been possible to take full advantage of the recovery in the aviation market. One area where the power of the platform was particularly pronounced was on the aircraft sales side where we generated $229 million in gains or a 12% margin across aircraft, engines and helicopters.

鑑於這些強勁的收益和現金流，我很高興今天宣布新的 5 億美元股票回購計劃。延續前幾個季度的主題，飛機租賃環境繼續加強，並將得到中國持續重啟的進一步支持。 AerCap 在 2022 年的活動水平在業內無與倫比，全年完成了 895 筆交易。僅在第四季度，AerCap 團隊就完成了創紀錄的 299 筆交易，涉及 159 份租賃協議、43 筆和 97 筆銷售。如果沒有這兩家公司的完美整合，這種水平的交易活動根本不可能實現，也不可能充分利用航空市場的複蘇。該平台的力量特別突出的一個領域是飛機銷售方面，我們在飛機、發動機和直升機方面創造了 2.29 億美元的收益或 12% 的利潤率。

We continue to see further evidence of the travel recovery as Europe, the Americas and Asia; all now exceed 80% of 2019 levels with China being the latest driver. In particular, the growth in domestic flight activity in China since the 0 COVID policy was lifted has been significant surpassing 12,000 flights per day recently compared to a low of approximately 3,000 flights per day at the end of November. Having spent the last 2 weeks seeing all our customers in China, it is clear from speaking to the leaders of these airlines that they are also optimistic about the future. As we have said time and again, when the consumer is allowed to travel, they do so and in large numbers. What we are seeing around the world is that consumers continue to prioritize travel well after restrictions are lifted and this will be no different in China. As a result, the Chinese airlines are all planning to ramp up capacity. We believe this will further exacerbate the supply/demand imbalance for aircraft and engines pushing lease rates higher.

我們繼續看到歐洲、美洲和亞洲旅行複甦的進一步證據；現在都超過了 2019 年水平的 80%，其中中國是最新的推動者。特別是，自 0 COVID 政策取消以來，中國國內航班活動的增長顯著超過了最近每天 12,000 個航班，而 11 月底每天約 3,000 個航班的低點。在過去的 2 周里，我們與所有中國客戶進行了會面，從與這些航空公司的領導人交談中可以明顯看出，他們對未來也持樂觀態度。正如我們一再說過的那樣，當消費者被允許旅行時，他們會選擇大量旅行。我們在世界各地看到的是，在取消限制後，消費者繼續將旅行放在首位，這在中國也不例外。因此，中國的航空公司都在計劃增加運力。我們認為這將進一步加劇飛機和發動機的供需失衡，推高租賃費率。

I believe this will be particularly acute on the widebody side as the combination of severely restricted new aircraft production, continued traffic growth and the retirement and cargo conversion of many widebody aircraft that took place during COVID puts a premium on aircraft that are available today and AerCap is well positioned to address this opportunity. We have spoken before about the shortages on the narrowbody side where production cuts due to groundings, COVID and supply chain issues have had a significant impact. As you will see from the slide, this means there are approximately 1,800 fewer narrowbody aircraft built today compared to the production run rate in 2018. This is equivalent to approximately 11% of the 16,000 or so narrowbody aircraft in operation at that time. On the widebody side, these reductions have been even more acute. Production rates for new technology aircraft such as the 787, the 330neo and the A350 are also well below expectations.

我相信這在寬體機方面尤其嚴重，因為在 COVID 期間新飛機生產受到嚴格限制、交通量持續增長以及許多寬體機的退役和貨物轉換，這對今天可用的飛機和 AerCap 產生了溢價有能力抓住這個機會。我們之前談到過窄體機方面的短缺，其中由於接地、COVID 和供應鏈問題導致的減產產生了重大影響。正如您將從幻燈片中看到的那樣，這意味著與 2018 年的生產運行率相比，今天建造的窄體飛機減少了大約 1,800 架。這相當於當時運營的 16,000 架左右窄體飛機的大約 11%。在寬體機方面，這些減少更為嚴重。 787、330neo 和 A350 等新技術飛機的生產率也遠低於預期。

Airbus was targeting 5 A330neos per month in 2019 and delivered less than 3 per month in 2022. They were targeting 10 A350s per month in 2019 and delivered only 5 per month in 2022. Boeing were targeting 14 787s per month in 2019 and delivered less than 3 a month in 2022 with more than 80% of these coming from storage. This has resulted in approximately 740 fewer widebody aircraft built since 2019, a 15% reduction relative to the 5,000 or so widebody aircraft that were in service at the time. That's equivalent to almost 2 full years of normal production. So how are we capitalizing on this opportunity? The best example I can give you is that since the start of 2022, AerCap has completed nearly 100 widebody transactions, which I suspect is possibly more than the rest of the aircraft leasing industry combined. We are seeing broad-based demand and we expect this to be sustained by continued traffic growth and low production rates for widebody aircraft.

空客的目標是在 2019 年每月交付 5 架 A330neo，到 2022 年每月交付量不到 3 架。他們的目標是在 2019 年每月交付 10 架 A350，到 2022 年每月僅交付 5 架。波音公司的目標是在 2019 年每月交付 14787 架，交付量不到2022 年每月 3 次，其中 80% 以上來自存儲。這導致自 2019 年以來建造的寬體飛機減少了約 740 架，與當時服役的 5,000 架左右寬體飛機相比減少了 15%。這相當於將近 2 年的正常生產。那麼我們如何利用這個機會呢？我能給你的最好例子是，自 2022 年初以來，AerCap 已經完成了近 100 筆寬體機交易，我懷疑這可能比飛機租賃行業其他公司的總和還多。我們看到了廣泛的需求，我們預計這種需求將通過持續的交通增長和寬體飛機的低生產率來維持。

We believe that the issues affecting aircraft production are likely to persist for several years resulting in strong demand and upward pressure on lease rates and values for the foreseeable future. One further topic I'd like to address is the impact of interest rates and inflation on aircraft lease rates and our business more generally. On our prior call, we outlined the way new aircraft leases are adjusted for changes in interest rates and escalation, which provides protection to AerCap from interest rate volatility. This is the same exposure an airline would face if it were to purchase aircraft directly from the manufacturers and finance it with debt. So it's widely accepted that this should be reflected in lease rates. However, it's important to put these kinds of increases into context. As you can see on this slide, leasing costs make up approximately 5% of an airlines' cost base on average. So changes here are much more palatable to pass through than fuel or labor costs may be.

我們認為，影響飛機生產的問題可能會持續數年，導致在可預見的未來需求強勁，租賃費率和價值面臨上行壓力。我想談的另一個話題是利率和通貨膨脹對飛機租賃費率和我們業務的影響。在我們之前的電話會議上，我們概述了根據利率變化和升級調整新飛機租賃的方式，這為 AerCap 提供了免受利率波動影響的保護。如果一家航空公司直接從製造商那裡購買飛機並通過債務融資，那麼這家航空公司將面臨同樣的風險。因此，人們普遍認為這應該反映在租賃費率上。但是，重要的是要將這些增加放在上下文中。正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣，租賃成本平均約佔航空公司成本基礎的 5%。因此，與燃料或勞動力成本相比，這裡的變化更容易通過。

Of course every airline looks to minimize whatever level of cost they can. But this should illustrate that even large percentage increases in interest expenses and leasing costs are less material to our airline customers than many investors may realize. In summary, this was another great quarter for AerCap with record earnings and cash flows throughout the business. The market environment continues to improve and this is reflected in our financial results. The company has successfully navigated an extraordinary period over the past 3 years and now we are well positioned and on an upward trajectory for 2023 and beyond. Our confidence in the future is evidenced by today's announcement of our new share repurchase program.

當然，每家航空公司都希望盡可能降低成本。但這應該說明，即使利息支出和租賃成本大幅增加，對我們的航空公司客戶來說也沒有許多投資者可能意識到的那麼重要。總而言之，對於 AerCap 來說，這是又一個出色的季度，整個企業的收益和現金流都創下歷史新高。市場環境持續改善，這反映在我們的財務業績中。公司在過去 3 年中成功度過了一段非常時期，現在我們處於有利地位，並在 2023 年及以後保持上升趨勢。今天宣布的新股票回購計劃證明了我們對未來的信心。

With that, I will hand the call over to Pete for a detailed review of our financial performance and outlook for 2023.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給皮特，讓他詳細審查我們的財務業績和 2023 年的前景。

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. We had a very strong performance for the fourth quarter. Our adjusted net income was $645 million or $2.66 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $215 million in the quarter. This included lease premium amortization of $47 million, which reduced our basic lease rents; $111 million in maintenance rights amortization that reduced our maintenance revenue; and $57 million of amortization that was reflected in higher leasing expenses. In the fourth quarter we received $47 million of letter of credit proceeds related to our Russian lessees, which was reflected in our net claims and recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict line item. And we had transaction and integration related expenses of $3 million in the quarter. Taking all of those into account, our GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $495 million or $2.04 per share.

謝謝，格斯。大家，早安。我們在第四季度的表現非常強勁。我們調整後的淨收入為 6.45 億美元或每股 2.66 美元。本季度採購會計調整的影響為 2.15 億美元。這包括 4700 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷，這減少了我們的基本租賃租金； 1.11 億美元的維護權攤銷減少了我們的維護收入； 5700 萬美元的攤銷費用反映在較高的租賃費用中。在第四季度，我們收到了 4700 萬美元的與俄羅斯承租人相關的信用證收益，這反映在我們與烏克蘭衝突項目相關的淨索賠和追償中。本季度我們有 300 萬美元的交易和整合相關費用。將所有這些考慮在內，我們第四季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 4.95 億美元或每股 2.04 美元。

I'll talk briefly about the main drivers that affected our results for the fourth quarter. Basic lease rents were $1.494 billion for the quarter, an increase of around $20 million from last quarter. As I mentioned, our basic lease rents reflected $47 million of lease premium amortization. Lease premium assets are amortized over the remaining term of the lease and reduce basic lease rents. Maintenance revenues for the fourth quarter were $140 million and that reflects $111 million of maintenance rights assets that were amortized to maintenance revenue during the quarter. In other words, maintenance revenue would have been $111 million higher or $251 million without this amortization. Net gain on sale of assets was $121 million for the quarter. During the fourth quarter, we completed a record 97 asset sales including sales of 83 of our owned assets. The total volume of assets sold in the fourth quarter was around $965 million. So that represents a very strong gain on sale margin of 14% for the quarter.

我將簡要談談影響我們第四季度業績的主要驅動因素。本季度基本租賃租金為 14.94 億美元，比上一季度增加約 2000 萬美元。正如我所提到的，我們的基本租賃租金反映了 4700 萬美元的租賃溢價攤銷。租賃溢價資產在剩餘租賃期內攤銷並減少基本租賃租金。第四季度的維護收入為 1.4 億美元，反映了本季度攤銷到維護收入的 1.11 億美元維護權資產。換句話說，如果沒有攤銷，維護收入將增加 1.11 億美元或 2.51 億美元。本季度資產出售淨收益為 1.21 億美元。第四季度，我們完成了創紀錄的 97 項資產出售，其中包括 83 項自有資產的出售。第四季度出售的資產總額約為 9.65 億美元。因此，這代表本季度 14% 的銷售利潤率非常強勁。

Our other income was $74 million for the quarter, which included proceeds from unsecured claims related to Garuda Airlines as well as insurance proceeds related to 1 of our helicopters and those 2 items were a total of $36 million of other income in the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict were $47 million in the fourth quarter, which represents proceeds from letters of credit that we received during the quarter. As we've mentioned previously, we submitted claims for our letters of credit related to Russian lessees during the first quarter of 2022. We received most of those proceeds shortly thereafter, but there were certain amounts that were disputed by the banks and we've now received virtually all of those amounts. Leasing expenses were $261 million for the quarter including $57 million of amortization expenses.

本季度我們的其他收入為 7400 萬美元，其中包括與鷹航相關的無擔保索賠收益以及與我們的一架直升機相關的保險收益，這兩項在本季度的其他收入總計為 3600 萬美元。正如我之前提到的，與烏克蘭衝突相關的淨回收在第四季度為 4700 萬美元，這是我們在本季度收到的信用證的收益。正如我們之前提到的，我們在 2022 年第一季度提交了與俄羅斯承租人相關的信用證索賠。此後不久我們收到了大部分收益，但銀行對某些金額有爭議，我們已經現在幾乎收到了所有這些款項。本季度租賃費用為 2.61 億美元，包括 5700 萬美元的攤銷費用。

Equity in net earnings of investments under the equity method was $38 million for the quarter. That primarily reflects continued strong earnings from Shannon Engine Support, which is our engine leasing joint venture with Safran and is our largest equity investment. SES has been generating strong performance this year driven by the ongoing engine supply and demand factors that Gus mentioned in his remarks. For the full year of 2022, our adjusted net income was $2.185 billion and our adjusted EPS was $9.01. That's after purchase accounting adjustments for the full year of $629 million, transaction and integration related expenses of $33 million and net charges related to the Ukraine conflict of approximately $2.7 billion. Our full year EPS of $9.01 reflects the strong outperformance relative both to our original guidance of $6.50 to $7.00 as well as our revised guidance that we provided on the third quarter earnings call of $8.00 to $8.50. That outperformance has been driven by a number of factors.

本季度採用權益法計算的投資淨收益中的權益為 3800 萬美元。這主要反映了 Shannon Engine Support 持續強勁的收益，Shannon Engine Support 是我們與賽峰集團的發動機租賃合資企業，也是我們最大的股權投資。在 Gus 講話中提到的持續發動機供需因素的推動下，SES 今年表現強勁。 2022 年全年，我們調整後的淨收入為 21.85 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 9.01 美元。這是在全年 6.29 億美元的採購會計調整、3300 萬美元的交易和整合相關費用以及約 27 億美元的與烏克蘭衝突相關的淨費用之後。我們 9.01 美元的全年每股收益反映了相對於我們 6.50 美元至 7.00 美元的原始指導以及我們在第三季度財報電話會議上提供的 8.00 美元至 8.50 美元的修訂指導的強勁表現。這種出色的表現是由多種因素推動的。

We've seen a positive impact on revenue from higher cash collections as well as higher maintenance revenue. We've also seen strong performances from our engine leasing and helicopter leasing businesses. And we've had higher income from our joint venture SES, which has performed well ahead of expectations. We sold just under $2.2 billion worth of assets in 2022 and had gains on sale of $229 million for a 12% gain on sale margin for the full year. We also received significant proceeds from unsecured claims and other items during the year of around $100 million in total. We also had $69 million of mark-to-market gains on our interest rate caps and swaps in 2022. We continue to maintain strong liquidity position. As of December 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $18 billion, which resulted in the next 12 months' sources to uses coverage ratio of 1.4x, which is above our target of 1.2x coverage and represents excess cash coverage of around $5 billion.

我們已經看到更高的現金收入和更高的維護收入對收入產生了積極影響。我們還看到了發動機租賃和直升機租賃業務的強勁表現。我們從合資企業 SES 獲得了更高的收入，其表現好於預期。我們在 2022 年出售了價值不到 22 億美元的資產，全年銷售利潤為 12%，銷售收益為 2.29 億美元。年內，我們還從無擔保債權和其他項目中獲得了總計約 1 億美元的大量收益。 2022 年，我們的利率上限和掉期也獲得了 6900 萬美元的市值收益。我們繼續保持強勁的流動性頭寸。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的流動資金來源總額約為 180 億美元，這導致未來 12 個月的來源使用覆蓋率為 1.4 倍，高於我們 1.2 倍覆蓋率的目標，代表約 50 億美元的超額現金覆蓋率.

Our total operating cash flow was approximately $1.6 billion for the quarter. That's a very strong number, which was driven by continued strong cash collections and operating performance as well as sales proceeds from some aircraft that were on finance leases that were sold in the quarter along with the letter of credit proceeds related to our Russian lessees. As a result of the strong earnings and cash flow generation, we saw a significant decrease in our leverage ratio and we ended the year with net debt-to-equity of 2.5x, which is well below our target ratio of 2.7x. Our secured debt to total assets ratio was approximately 14% at the end of the year, which is in line with the third quarter, and our average cost of debt for the fourth quarter was 3.3%. Earlier this week, Moody's upgraded our senior unsecured ratings to Baa2 and we remain on positive outlook with Fitch. So that continues our positive ratings trajectory.

本季度我們的總運營現金流約為 16 億美元。這是一個非常強勁的數字，這是由持續強勁的現金收入和經營業績以及本季度出售的一些融資租賃飛機的銷售收益以及與我們的俄羅斯承租人相關的信用證收益推動的。由於強勁的收益和現金流產生，我們的槓桿率顯著下降，年底我們的淨債務與權益比率為 2.5 倍，遠低於我們 2.7 倍的目標比率。截至年底，我們的擔保債務佔總資產的比率約為 14%，與第三季度持平，第四季度的平均債務成本為 3.3%。本週早些時候，穆迪將我們的高級無抵押評級上調至 Baa2，我們對惠譽的展望保持正面。因此，這延續了我們積極的評級軌跡。

Now I'll spend a few minutes talking about our financial outlook for 2023. As Gus mentioned, we're seeing a strong recovery in aircraft demand and significant supply constraints, both of which we expect to persist. So the environment for leasing continues to be positive and we expect to see lease rates continue to climb higher during the course of 2023. Our EPS guidance for full year 2023 is $7.00 to $7.50 of adjusted EPS excluding any gains on sale as well as other items like recoveries of unsecured claims. If we look at our 2022 EPS of $9.01, you can see that was comprised of a number of items that we haven't included in the 2023 forecast. For example we haven't assumed any gains on sale which were $0.83 after taxes in 2022. In 2022 we also had mark-to-market gains on interest rate caps and swaps as interest rates rose and the value of those derivatives increased so that's a $0.41 impact. Up until the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February last year, we were still receiving rent from our Russian airline customers.

現在，我將花幾分鐘時間談談我們對 2023 年的財務展望。正如 Gus 所提到的，我們看到飛機需求強勁復甦，但供應受到嚴重限制，我們預計這兩種情況都會持續存在。因此，租賃環境繼續保持樂觀，我們預計租賃率在 2023 年期間繼續攀升。我們對 2023 年全年每股收益的指導是調整後每股收益 7.00 美元至 7.50 美元，不包括任何銷售收益和其他項目比如無擔保債權的追償。如果我們查看 2022 年 9.01 美元的每股收益，您會發現其中包含許多我們未包含在 2023 年預測中的項目。例如，我們沒有假設 2022 年稅後 0.83 美元的任何銷售收益。在 2022 年，隨著利率上升和這些衍生品的價值增加，我們還獲得了利率上限和掉期的按市值計價收益，因此這是0.41 美元的影響。直到去年 2 月底烏克蘭入侵之前，我們仍在從我們的俄羅斯航空公司客戶那裡收取租金。

Obviously that's no longer the case so the $0.14 reflects the removal of this rent as well as the depreciation related to those assets, which we wrote off in full in the first quarter of last year. We also had $0.39 of unsecured claims and other items in 2022 and we haven't forecasted anything for those items in 2023. We'll also have some higher costs associated with our cargo conversion program in 2023 as that ramps up this year as well as higher insurance cost. So those are both reflected in the $0.41 impact shown here. And finally, we expect higher lease revenue and other items in 2023, which we project will increase our EPS in 2023 to $7.00 to $750 excluding any gain on sale or other income items. If we take a look at our projected income statement for 2023, you can see that we expect to have total revenue of approximately $6.8 billion, interest expense of around $1.8 billion, depreciation of approximately $2.5 billion and leasing expenses, SG&A and other expenses of around $1.2 billion.

顯然情況不再如此，因此 0.14 美元反映了租金的去除以及與這些資產相關的折舊，我們在去年第一季度全額註銷了這些資產。我們在 2022 年還有 0.39 美元的無擔保索賠和其他項目，我們沒有預測 2023 年這些項目的任何費用。隨著今年和更高的保險費用。因此，這些都反映在此處顯示的 0.41 美元影響中。最後，我們預計 2023 年的租賃收入和其他項目會增加，我們預計 2023 年的每股收益將增加至 7.00 美元至 750 美元，不包括任何銷售收益或其他收入項目。如果我們看一下 2023 年的預計損益表，您會發現我們預計總收入約為 68 億美元，利息支出約為 18 億美元，折舊約為 25 億美元，租賃費用、SG&A 和其他費用約為12億美元。

That gives us total pretax income of $1.3 billion. The next line, tax expense and income from equity method investments, includes our income from SES. We expect that our effective tax rate will be around 14% for 2023 and we expect to have around $100 million of income from our equity investments. So that gives us GAAP net income of approximately $1.2 billion. We expect to have purchase accounting impacts that is from lease premium amortization and maintenance rights amortization of around $500 million to $600 million for the year. So that results in adjusted net income of around $1.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.00 to $7.50 which, as I've said, doesn't include any gains on sale. We expect to have asset sales of $2.5 billion for the year, which is an increase over the $2.2 billion of sales that we had in 2022. And we expect to have cash CapEx of $6.8 billion for the year.

這使我們的稅前總收入達到 13 億美元。下一行，權益法投資的稅收費用和收入，包括我們來自 SES 的收入。我們預計 2023 年我們的有效稅率將在 14% 左右，我們預計我們的股權投資收入約為 1 億美元。因此，這使我們的 GAAP 淨收入約為 12 億美元。我們預計今年租賃費攤銷和維護權攤銷對採購會計的影響約為 5 億至 6 億美元。因此，這導致調整後的淨收入約為 17 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 7.00 美元至 7.50 美元，正如我所說，這不包括任何銷售收益。我們預計今年的資產銷售額將達到 25 億美元，比 2022 年的 22 億美元銷售額有所增加。我們預計今年的現金資本支出將達到 68 億美元。

Of course the volume of sales will depend on the market for aircraft during the year and the amount of CapEx will depend on the ability of the OEMs to deliver aircraft. But for now, those are our best estimates. So overall, this was another strong quarter for AerCap. After the invasion of Ukraine last February and the write-off of our Russian assets, we've rebounded strongly which you can see from the level of our transactions activity, our financial performance well above guidance and the fact that we have delevered to a level that's well below our target. We also see this confirmed by the ratings upgrade to Baa2 from Moody's that we received earlier this week. And we expect the trends that are driving these results to continue, which should be positive for our business in 2023 and beyond. That gives us confidence to announce a new share repurchase program and confidence about our outlook for 2023.

當然，銷售量將取決於當年的飛機市場，而資本支出的金額將取決於原始設備製造商交付飛機的能力。但就目前而言，這些是我們最好的估計。總的來說，這是 AerCap 的又一個強勁季度。在去年 2 月入侵烏克蘭和註銷我們的俄羅斯資產之後，我們已經強勁反彈，您可以從我們的交易活動水平、我們的財務業績遠高於指導以及我們已去槓桿化到一定水平這一事實中看出這一點這遠低於我們的目標。本週早些時候，穆迪將評級上調至 Baa2，這也證實了這一點。我們預計推動這些結果的趨勢將繼續下去，這對我們 2023 年及以後的業務應該是積極的。這使我們有信心宣布新的股票回購計劃，並對我們 2023 年的前景充滿信心。

And with that, operator, we can open up the call for Q&A.

有了這個，接線員，我們就可以打開問答電話了。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根大通的 Jamie Baker 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

This is James on for Jamie. First question. There was a recent article speculating that you guys were in discussion with a Russian airline to purchase planes at discounted price. To the extent that you can comment on that, any color you could provide there? But also is that even possible just given the sanctions in place?

這是傑米的詹姆斯。第一個問題。最近有一篇文章推測你們正在與一家俄羅斯航空公司討論以折扣價購買飛機。就您可以對此發表評論而言，您可以在那裡提供任何顏色嗎？但是，僅僅考慮到製裁措施，這還有可能嗎？

As you know, we are pursuing insurance claims against our own insurers and against the Russian airlines' insurers and reinsurers. We have been approached by some Russian airlines and their insurers about potential insurance settlements involving some of our aircraft lost in Russia. However, it is too early to know whether anything will come out of it and we have nothing further to say on it at this stage.

如您所知，我們正在向我們自己的保險公司以及俄羅斯航空公司的保險公司和再保險公司提出保險索賠。一些俄羅斯航空公司及其保險公司已就涉及我們在俄羅斯丟失的部分飛機的潛在保險理賠事宜與我們接洽。然而，現在判斷是否會產生任何結果還為時過早，現階段我們對此無話可說。

Got it. Understand. Just thought I would try the question there. Second question just on the cadence of the cargo business revenues for the year, it seems like the $0.41 impact for 2023. Just how should we think about that as the year goes on?

知道了。理解。只是想我會在那裡嘗試這個問題。第二個問題是關於今年貨運業務收入的節奏，似乎對 2023 年的影響為 0.41 美元。隨著時間的推移，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Sure. James, that's really an impact of a couple of things. You've got cargo expenses as those conversions happen throughout the year, I'd say they're going to be pretty balanced throughout the year and then we do have higher insurance expenses in there as well as well. So it's both of those factors that are contributing to that.

當然。詹姆斯，這真的是幾件事的影響。你有貨運費用，因為這些轉換全年都會發生，我想說它們全年會非常平衡，然後我們也確實有更高的保險費用。因此，正是這兩個因素促成了這一點。

We will take our next question from Helane Becker from Cowen.

我們將接受來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker 的下一個問題。

It's Helane Becker. So Pete, is it -- do you always not forecast sales for the year and then take them as they come or how should we think about the forecast for 0 sales in '23?

是海蘭·貝克爾。所以皮特，是嗎——你總是不預測今年的銷售額，然後在它們到來時接受它們，或者我們應該如何考慮 23 年銷售額為 0 的預測？

Helane, so we're projecting $2.5 billion of sales for the year so that is in our forecast. What we haven't done, which is consistent with how we've done it previously, we haven't made any forecast for what gains on sale will be because that's really going to depend on what assets we sell and what the market is like during the course of the year. But we are expecting to sell $2.5 billion. Last year in 2022, we sold $2.2 billion worth and we would expect to do a little more than that during the course of the year.

Helane，所以我們預計今年的銷售額為 25 億美元，這在我們的預測中。我們沒有做的，這與我們之前所做的一致，我們沒有對銷售收益做出任何預測，因為這實際上取決於我們出售的資產和市場情況在這一年的過程中。但我們預計將出售 25 億美元。去年，也就是 2022 年，我們銷售了價值 22 億美元的產品，我們預計在這一年中會比這多一點。

Okay. That's helpful. I meant gains not sales, sorry about that. And then my other follow-up question is on CapEx, the $6.8 billion. So how are you thinking about 2 things: one, financing it and two, flipping it to the right? Given what you said about delivery delays and what we're seeing about delivery delays in the slide that Aengus referred to earlier in his remarks, it looks like you may not get all the aircraft that you're contracted to get. So how should we actually think about what CapEx will look like and how it will be financed?

好的。這很有幫助。我的意思是收益而不是銷售額，對此感到抱歉。然後我的另一個後續問題是資本支出，即 68 億美元。那麼，您如何考慮兩件事：第一，為其融資，第二，將其向右翻轉？鑑於你所說的交付延遲以及我們在 Aengus 之前提到的幻燈片中看到的交付延遲，看起來你可能無法獲得合同中規定的所有飛機。那麼我們實際上應該如何考慮資本支出會是什麼樣子以及如何為其融資？

CapEx has been a moving piece, Helane, you're right, over the course of the last few years and I expect that to continue. These are our best estimates at the moment. But even yesterday, as you'll have seen, Airbus made some announcements about the XLR delays again. So this is a dynamic situation, but it's our best estimate as of now.

在過去的幾年裡，資本支出一直是一個動人的部分，Helane，你是對的，我希望這種情況會繼續下去。這些是我們目前最好的估計。但即使在昨天，正如您所見，空中客車公司再次發布了一些關於 XLR 延遲的公告。所以這是一個動態的情況，但這是我們目前的最佳估計。

Okay. And financing them?

好的。並為他們提供資金？

So we'll generate operating cash flow of $5 billion as we said we expect in the coming year and then in addition, there'll be $2.5 billion of sales. So relative to the size of the balance sheet and the cash flow generating power of the business, these are very manageable CapEx numbers even if they were to all deliver, which I doubt.

所以我們將產生 50 億美元的運營現金流，正如我們所說的那樣，我們預計在來年將有 25 億美元的銷售額。因此，相對於資產負債表的規模和企業產生現金流的能力，這些都是非常易於管理的資本支出數字，即使它們全部交付，我對此表示懷疑。

We will take our next question from Moshe Orenbuch from Credit Suisse.

我們將接受來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch 的下一個問題。

Pete or Gus actually, I'm hoping you could kind of talk a little bit about how -- obviously we'll see the benefit of the strong value market in aircraft in the sales numbers, saw them in the fourth quarter and will likely see them in 2023. Can you talk about how that's going to be manifested in lease rates and whether you've assumed any of that in your 2023 guide?

實際上，Pete 或 Gus，我希望你能談談如何 - 顯然我們會在銷售數字中看到飛機強大的價值市場的好處，在第四季度看到它們並且很可能會看到他們在 2023 年。你能談談這將如何體現在租賃率上，以及你是否在 2023 年指南中假設了其中的任何一個？

Sure, Moshe. So overall, we're seeing lease rates going up. We've seen that for more than the past year so that has been accelerating and we factored some of that in. Obviously we're leasing well in advance so if we're signing a lease today, that's likely to be for 12 months' time from now, right? So you don't see -- there's a lag in terms of that effect, but obviously it does affect future years. So we've reflected that in. I mean in terms of basic lease rents, I think the fourth quarter run rate is a pretty good starting point if you're thinking of it that way and you should see those growing somewhat each quarter as the fleet grows somewhat throughout the year. That's what I would expect.

當然，摩西。所以總的來說，我們看到租賃率在上升。我們已經看到比過去一年更多的時間，所以它一直在加速，我們將其中的一些因素考慮在內。顯然，我們提前很好地租賃，所以如果我們今天簽署租約，可能會持續 12 個月”從現在開始，對吧？所以你看不到 - 在這種影響方面存在滯後，但顯然它確實會影響未來幾年。所以我們已經反映了這一點。我的意思是就基本租賃租金而言，我認為第四季度的運行率是一個很好的起點，如果你這樣想的話，你應該會看到每個季度都有所增長，因為船隊全年有所增長。這就是我所期望的。

Great. And I think we've had this discussion about your guidance in the past as being conservative as excluding some of the items that are in there. And when talking with investors this morning already, I think there's been some confusion I guess. The fact that you on the slide on Page 13 kind of exclude the mark-to-market of interest rate caps and swaps, that doesn't mean that you expect that to be necessarily 0 in 2023 and some of those other items that are on there, they won't necessarily be 0 in 2023, correct?

偉大的。而且我認為我們過去曾就您的指導進行過這種討論，因為您的指導是保守的，因為排除了其中的一些項目。今天早上與投資者交談時，我想我猜有些困惑。事實上，您在第 13 頁的幻燈片中排除了按市值計價的利率上限和掉期，這並不意味著您期望它在 2023 年必然為 0 以及其他一些項目在那裡，它們不一定會在 2023 年為 0，對嗎？

Correct. And maybe I'll take a moment, Moshe, just to talk about those. So the mark-to-market of interest rate caps and swaps. During 2022 we had a benefit from that because interest rates rose and the value of those derivatives of those caps and swaps rose so we had to mark that to market. So we're not projecting -- we're not making an assumption about that in 2023 that that's going to happen again, right? So that's that item. Some of the other ones like the lower income as a result of the Ukraine conflict so that reflects the rent that we got on our Russian aircraft during the first quarter less the depreciation on that. That's obviously gone, right? So I would not include anything for that. And then we have reflected the cargo conversion program.

正確的。也許我會花點時間，Moshe，談談這些。因此，利率上限和掉期按市值計價。在 2022 年期間，我們從中受益，因為利率上升，這些上限和掉期的衍生品價值上升，所以我們必須將其計入市場。所以我們沒有預測——我們沒有假設這種情況會在 2023 年再次發生，對吧？這就是那個項目。其他一些人喜歡烏克蘭衝突導致的收入下降，這反映了我們在第一季度從俄羅斯飛機上獲得的租金減去折舊。明明就沒了好嗎？所以我不會包括任何東西。然後我們反映了貨物轉換方案。

In terms of the other items though, the gains on sale so I think you could take a look at our projection of $2.5 billion of sales and make a evaluation of whether you think that's high or low or accurate. And then historically, we've had gain on sale margins of 8% to 10%, last year it was 12%. I mean obviously that's market dependent, but that's what we've had. And then in terms of other items, in 2022 we had about $100 million of unsecured claims that came through and those are not something that we project so that's not in these numbers of the $7.00 to $7.50. But I'd say in a balance sheet of this size, in a business of this size, it's not unusual for us to have things come in in that other income line item. So that's how I would think about it is you've got $7.00 to $7.50 is what's really forecastable, but then there are other things that could come on top of that.

不過，就其他項目而言，銷售收益，所以我認為你可以看看我們對 25 億美元銷售額的預測，並評估你認為這是高還是低或準確。然後從歷史上看，我們的銷售利潤率增長了 8% 到 10%，去年是 12%。我的意思是顯然這取決於市場，但這就是我們所擁有的。然後就其他項目而言，在 2022 年，我們有大約 1 億美元的無擔保索賠，這些不是我們預計的，所以不在 7.00 美元到 7.50 美元的這些數字中。但我會說，在這種規模的資產負債表中，在這種規模的企業中，我們將其他收入項目納入其中並不少見。所以這就是我的想法，你有 7.00 美元到 7.50 美元是真正可以預測的，但除此之外還有其他事情。

We will take our next question from Hillary Cacanando from Deutsche Bank.

我們將從德意志銀行的 Hillary Cacanando 那裡回答下一個問題。

I was wondering did you buy back any stock year-to-date? And I know you just announced it, but wondering if you bought any. And do you have a full year repurchase target?

我想知道你年初至今有沒有回購任何股票？我知道你剛剛宣布了它，但想知道你是否買了。你有全年回購目標嗎？

We have not bought any back. We just announced it today so we haven't bought any shares yet. In terms of full year, look, we're going to generate excess capital during the course of the year. And what we've always done historically is look, as we generate excess capital, we look at how to deploy that. And obviously we've done a lot of share repurchases in the past. I don't want to speculate about how many we will do this year. But obviously as we look at it, that's a natural way for us to deploy capital effectively.

我們沒有買回來。我們今天剛剛宣布，所以我們還沒有購買任何股票。就全年而言，看，我們將在這一年中產生過剩資本。從歷史上看，我們一直在做的是，當我們產生過剩資本時，我們會研究如何部署它。顯然，我們過去進行了大量的股票回購。我不想推測我們今年會做多少。但顯然，在我們看來，這是我們有效部署資本的自然方式。

Got it. And then just regarding your cargo conversion program, what is the timing of revenue coming out from that program?

知道了。然後就您的貨物轉換計劃而言，該計劃產生收入的時間是什麼時候？

Well, you'll start to see the first cargo conversions done on the 777 program anyway during this year. We'll start to see some delivering. And then really it's over the course of the next few years that those come in and our percentage of revenues from cargo will go up as a result of that. But it's a multi-year program.

好吧，無論如何，今年您將開始看到 777 項目完成的首次貨運改裝。我們將開始看到一些交付。然後真的是在接下來的幾年裡，這些東西進來了，我們的貨運收入百分比將因此上升。但這是一個多年計劃。

We will take our next question from Vincent Caintic from Stephens.

我們將從 Stephens 的 Vincent Caintic 那裡接受我們的下一個問題。

First question going back to net spread. So I appreciate the comments about lease rate expansion and kind of building off of the fourth quarter results. Maybe if you could talk about the funding side, how we should think about funding costs and how much of an offset that would be particularly with the purchases so the $6.8 billion this year?

第一個問題回到淨利差。所以我很欣賞關於租賃率擴張和第四季度業績增長的評論。也許如果你能談談資金方面，我們應該如何考慮資金成本，以及今年的 68 億美元特別是購買的抵消多少？

Sure, Vincent. So in terms of net spread for the year, I think it's going to be pretty flat from where it was for the fourth quarter at 7.6% or so. So I think that's a reasonable estimate. In terms of funding so we have about $6 billion to $7 billion worth of funding that we would expect to do. That obviously depends on getting all these deliveries 79 aircraft during the course of the year as well as the level of sales that we ultimately end up doing. But based on the $2.5 billion of sales and based on that just under $7 billion of CapEx, we would expect to do about $6 billion to $7 billion. That will be in unsecured bonds, that will be in some secured deals, unsecured bank deals as well so it will be a combination. But that probably means 2 to 3 trips to the market during the course of the year.

當然，文森特。因此，就今年的淨利差而言，我認為與第四季度的 7.6% 左右持平。所以我認為這是一個合理的估計。在資金方面，我們有大約 60 億至 70 億美元的資金，我們希望這樣做。這顯然取決於在這一年中交付所有這些 79 架飛機，以及我們最終達到的銷售水平。但基於 25 億美元的銷售額和略低於 70 億美元的資本支出，我們預計將實現約 60 億至 70 億美元的收益。這將是無擔保債券，一些有擔保交易，無擔保銀行交易，因此這將是一個組合。但這可能意味著一年中有 2 到 3 次去市場。

Okay, great. That's very helpful. And second question so I'm glad to hear the strength in the valuations of aircraft as well as lease rates expanding. How do you balance between selling aircraft and realizing the gain since the valuation is moving higher on aircraft versus keeping the aircraft and taking advantage of the lease rates expanding since there's such high demand there?

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我很高興聽到飛機估值的優勢以及租賃利率的上升。你如何在出售飛機和實現收益之間取得平衡，因為飛機的估值正在走高，還是保留飛機並利用租賃利率的上漲，因為那裡的需求如此之高？

Vincent, when we think about selling assets, the first objective is to improve the quality of the residual portfolio. Gain on sale and driving the price that we get for the assets comes second to that. So what we do when we compose a portfolio of assets for sale is we'll say okay, this is a particular portfolio of assets where we feel for various reasons that the average aircraft in the portfolio post the sale would be a slightly better asset than it was before the sale of this portfolio of assets. That's the key driver that you're always trying to make sure that the portfolio is built for the long term and that's the primary driver of all our decision making and that's underpinned the success of the company for many, many years. Holding on to assets and clipping near-term coupons when you know there's an issue with -- say in the bond world.

文森特，當我們考慮出售資產時，首要目標是提高剩餘資產組合的質量。出售收益和推動我們獲得的資產價格僅次於此。因此，當我們組成待售資產組合時，我們會說好吧，這是一個特定的資產組合，出於各種原因，我們認為出售後組合中的平均飛機的資產會略好於這是在出售該資產組合之前。這是你一直試圖確保投資組合是長期建立的關鍵驅動力，這是我們所有決策的主要驅動力，也是公司多年來取得成功的基礎。當你知道存在問題時，持有資產並削減近期息票 - 比如在債券世界。

If you're clipping a coupon of 12%, 13% a year in a very low rate environment and the bond is trading at $0.80 on the dollar, you know there's an issue somewhere there and it's recognizing that and trying of course to be ahead of the market. We do have an information advantage over the rest of the market. We do see things before anyone else in the world and we do see more data than anyone else too and it's employing all of that to try and make the best decision for the long-term shape of the portfolio. An example of that would be we were the only major lessor not just be buying end of line aircraft like 737s, A320s, A330s, 777s. Over the last 10 years we didn't buy any, but all other competitors were. And we knew that while there are going to be teething issues with the introduction of new technology, we could see before others that the trend for airlines was to move faster than many realized into the newer technology when they could. So that's 1 example of many, Vincent.

如果你在極低的利率環境下每年削減 12% 和 13% 的息票，而債券的交易價格為 0.80 美元，你就知道某處存在問題，它正在認識到這一點，當然會努力領先的市場。與市場上的其他公司相比，我們確實具有信息優勢。我們確實比世界上任何其他人都先看到了事情，我們也確實比其他任何人都看到了更多的數據，並且它正在利用所有這些來嘗試為投資組合的長期形態做出最佳決策。這方面的一個例子是，我們是唯一的主要出租人，而不僅僅是購買 737、A320、A330、777 等終端飛機。在過去的 10 年裡，我們沒有購買任何產品，但所有其他競爭對手都購買了。我們知道，雖然新技術的引入會出現初期問題，但我們可以先於其他人看到，航空公司的趨勢是在可能的情況下比許多人意識到的更快地採用新技術。這就是很多例子中的一個，文森特。

We will take our next question from Chris Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna.

我們將接受 Susquehanna 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos 的下一個問題。

So Aengus, in your prepared remarks you spent a good deal of time talking about China, the reopening there, I think you spent time on the last call. But could you speak to what you're seeing in the Americas and other regions and how you would describe I guess the pace of recovery there? And then also curious within that if you're -- you mentioned that you have a lot of data that you're privy to within those markets, if you're looking at the segments of travel and how leisure and business might be shaping up as well?

所以安格斯，在你準備好的發言中，你花了很多時間談論中國，在那裡重新開放，我想你在最後一次電話會議上花了時間。但是你能談談你在美洲和其他地區看到的情況嗎？我猜你會如何描述那裡的複蘇步伐？然後也很好奇，如果你 - 你提到你在這些市場中有很多你知道的數據，如果你正在研究旅行的細分市場以及休閒和商務可能如何形成還有嗎？

Well, if you start say with the Americans, the market has been very strong there. The domestic market is extremely strong. We expect a very strong summer there with good yields. You can see that there is a tightness of supply of narrowbody aircraft in the US market and the North Atlantic market is booming. The North Atlantic is by far the biggest long-haul market in the world so that affects both the American and the European sides there. So I would show the American domestic market as being extremely strong, I would show the Western European market also as being extremely strong, I think Ryanair had their biggest week of sales ever. Ryanair being the biggest airline in Europe. And what you'll see around the world is a similar trend where give or take with 80% of 2019 capacity, they're generating at or above 2019 revenue. And we see that type of trend being repeated.

好吧，如果你從美國人開始說，那裡的市場一直非常強勁。國內市場非常強勁。我們預計那裡的夏季非常強勁，單產良好。可以看到美國市場窄體機供應緊張，北大西洋市場火爆。北大西洋是迄今為止世界上最大的長途航線市場，因此影響了那裡的美國和歐洲雙方。所以我會展示美國國內市場非常強勁，我會展示西歐市場也非常強勁，我認為瑞安航空有他們有史以來最大的銷售週。瑞安航空是歐洲最大的航空公司。你會在世界各地看到類似的趨勢，即 2019 年產能的 80% 或多或少，它們產生的收入等於或高於 2019 年。我們看到這種趨勢正在重複。

Now of course the input cost for the airlines through higher fuel and to some extent higher labor costs, they need that rise but the good news is that it's there. With regard to China, I spent 2 weeks myself in China. I'm just back, I just got back on the weekend from spending 2 weeks there. I met all of the major airlines be it the flag carriers, the 3 majors, low cost carriers throughout China and again we're seeing the same pattern of recovery there. The domestic market was extremely strong. For the spring festival or as we call it the Chinese New Year that occurred in January, the airlines were in profitability pretty much across the board for the first time heavily focused on the domestic market and into Southeast Asia. So we'd expect that that is the same that we saw in the Americas and in Europe and then that expanded over time into the international markets and I think we'll see the same over the next 12 to 18 months in China.

當然，現在航空公司通過更高的燃料成本和某種程度上更高的勞動力成本增加了投入成本，他們需要這種上漲，但好消息是它就在那裡。關於中國，我自己在中國呆了兩個星期。我剛回來，我剛從那裡度過 2 週週末回來。我會見了所有主要航空公司，包括旗艦航空公司、三大航空公司、中國各地的低成本航空公司，我們再次看到了同樣的複蘇模式。國內市場非常強勁。在 1 月份的春節或我們所說的中國新年期間，航空公司幾乎首次全面盈利，主要集中在國內市場和東南亞市場。所以我們預計這與我們在美洲和歐洲看到的一樣，然後隨著時間的推移擴展到國際市場，我認為我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內在中國看到同樣的情況。

Okay. My second question so there's, clearly you speak to it and what we're seeing here in the data, a lot of upward pressure on lease rates as a whole. But could you speak to the cargo side where perhaps we're not seeing as constructive a supply-demand backdrop, if you will, with volumes consistently moving lower here and the return of belly capacity to the market as these long haul international flights come back online. So curious what you're seeing on the cargo side and within that if there are any sort of aircraft types that are performing better or worse.

好的。我的第二個問題，很明顯，你說的和我們在數據中看到的一樣，整個租賃率面臨很大的上行壓力。但是你能不能談談貨運方面，如果你願意的話，我們可能沒有看到具有建設性的供需背景，隨著這些長途國際航班的回歸，這裡的貨運量持續走低，腹艙運力回歸市場在線的。很好奇你在貨運方面看到了什麼，如果有任何類型的飛機表現更好或更差。

It should be no surprise that cargo yields are down. There were stratospherically high during COVID and it got to the situation where for some low value products like a pair of sneakers, the cost of transporting them from Vietnam to the States or Europe was getting close to the cost of the sneakers. So that was an unsustainable situation. So there's no surprise there that it's come down. A lot of demand was pulled forward of course in COVID when people were at home buying stuff online. That being said, however, we do believe that the cargo market is a lot more stable now than it has been in the past. If you wind back 10, 12 years, the cargo business was dominated by the major carriers like the FedEx, the UPS, the DHL and a few large Asian airlines that had big freighter fleets and it was focused on moving food, flowers, fish, drill bits around the world. Now of course the ecommerce has supplanted that and we have a much more stable demand and wider and broader demand for cargo.

貨運收益率下降不足為奇。在 COVID 期間，價格高得驚人，以至於對於一些低價值產品，比如一雙運動鞋，將它們從越南運到美國或歐洲的成本已經接近運動鞋的成本。所以這是一個不可持續的情況。所以它下降也就不足為奇了。當人們在家在線購買東西時，COVID 中當然會產生很多需求。儘管如此，我們確實相信貨運市場現在比過去穩定得多。如果回溯 10、12 年，貨運業務由 FedEx、UPS、DHL 等主要承運商和一些擁有大型貨運機隊的大型亞洲航空公司主導，專注於運輸食品、鮮花、魚類、世界各地的鑽頭。當然，現在電子商務已經取代了它，我們對貨物的需求更加穩定，需求也越來越廣泛。

So I would say that demand is still pretty good. Relative to where it was before COVID, it's very good. Relative to where it was in COVID, of course it's down and that should be no surprise as it's to specific aircraft types. The 737-800 Freighter is the workhorse of the narrowbody side. The 767s they're just running out of feedstock, that is just an aging platform so we're going to see that being retired and that will be replaced over time by a combination of the A330 converted freighter, but importantly I would say the 777-300ERs. We've seen very strong demand for that product. We had 20 slots, we've already leased 18 of them which is a very, very strong uptake because that aircraft has got so much volume, which is what you need for ecommerce where the weight is not as important as the volume -- the space on the aircraft, the volume of it. So look, I don't think anyone should be in any surprise that freight rates came down and the amount of tonnage being moved came down. That doesn't surprise us at all. It's something we fully expected.

所以我想說需求仍然很好。相對於 COVID 之前的情況，它非常好。相對於它在 COVID 中的位置，它當然下降了，這應該不足為奇，因為它適用於特定的飛機類型。 737-800 貨機是窄體飛機的主力。 767 的原料即將耗盡，那隻是一個老化的平台，所以我們將看到它退役，隨著時間的推移將被 A330 改裝貨機的組合所取代，但重要的是我會說 777 -300ER。我們看到對該產品的需求非常強勁。我們有 20 個機位，我們已經租用了其中的 18 個，這是一個非常非常強勁的增長，因為那架飛機的體積如此之大，這正是電子商務所需要的，在電子商務中，重量不如體積那麼重要——飛機上的空間，它的體積。所以看，我認為任何人都不應該對運費下降和移動噸位下降感到驚訝。這一點也不讓我們感到驚訝。這是我們完全預料到的。

We will take our next question from Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

我們將從美國銀行的 Ron Epstein 那裡回答下一個問題。

Just a quick one, Gus. When you look at other leasing businesses; cars, other equipment; as assets become more scarce, it's caused them to retain more value. Given the tightness of the aircraft market, are you guys contemplating at all changing your depreciation rates on aircraft or are they just too long-lived assets to consider doing that?

只是一個快速的，格斯。當您查看其他租賃業務時；汽車、其他設備；隨著資產變得更加稀缺，它們會保留更多的價值。鑑於飛機市場的緊俏，你們是否正在考慮改變飛機的折舊率，或者它們的壽命太長而無法考慮這樣做？

Yeah. That's just an accounting policy, Ron, that we set and it's over a 25-year period and it serves us well to be honest and I don't see us changing it. There's never been a concept of marking to market the depreciation or the values.

是的。這只是我們制定的一項會計政策，羅恩，它已經超過 25 年了，老實說，它對我們很有幫助，我認為我們不會改變它。從來沒有將折舊或價值標記為市場的概念。

But Ron. I would say -- it's Pete here. Certainly we should see with higher inflation, that should have a positive impact on the residual values of our fleet because they are hard assets as you say. So I think longer term obviously we'll have to see how persistent that is. But we're strong believers obviously in our book values today, but I think this even gives -- should give people more confidence as time progresses.

但是羅恩。我想說——這裡是皮特。當然，我們應該看到更高的通貨膨脹率，這應該對我們船隊的剩餘價值產生積極影響，因為正如你所說，它們是硬資產。所以我認為從長遠來看，我們顯然必須看看它的持久性。但我們今天顯然堅信我們的賬面價值，但我認為這甚至可以——隨著時間的推移應該給人們更多的信心。

Yeah. For sure, Pete.

是的。當然，皮特。

Got it. And maybe a follow-on. Are you guys getting any kind of inflationary adjustments in the maintenance reserves that you get from your customers?

知道了。也許還有後續。你們從客戶那裡得到的維護儲備金是否有任何通貨膨脹調整？

Well, to the extent that you have maintenance reserve paying leases, what happens is they get adjusted each year in the contract with whatever the OEM increases the reserve rates for parts, et cetera, LLPs. And then if you have an end of lease deal and if the engine has to come back to overhaul, then the risk is with the customer. But for the most part, Ron, that's passed on. There will be instances of course where you have to take an airplane back prematurely and if there's some inflation there that wasn't covered, you'll have to deal with us. But that's nothing unusual, I wouldn't see it as having any material impact 1 way or the other.

好吧，就您有維護準備金支付租賃而言，發生的情況是它們每年都會在合同中進行調整，無論 OEM 提高零件的準備金率，等等，有限責任合夥企業。然後，如果您的租賃協議終止並且發動機必須返回進行大修，那麼風險由客戶承擔。但在大多數情況下，羅恩，這已經過去了。當然，在某些情況下，您必須提前將飛機撤回，如果那裡有一些未涵蓋的通貨膨脹，您將不得不與我們打交道。但這沒什麼不尋常的，我不認為它會以一種或另一種方式產生任何實質性影響。

We will take our next question from Mark DeVries from Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Mark DeVries 的下一個問題。

The new $500 million repurchase authorization looks relatively conservative to us. Even if you bought back all of that tomorrow, I think you'd still be at 2.6x levered below your target and, as you mentioned, it's going to be very strong cash flows where you'll generate additional excess capital even if you realize the full $6.8 billion of CapEx for the year. So how are you guys thinking about alternative uses of excess capital generation outside of the repurchase authorization?

新的 5 億美元回購授權在我們看來相對保守。即使你明天買回所有這些，我認為你的槓桿率仍然低於你的目標 2.6 倍，而且正如你所提到的，這將是非常強勁的現金流，即使你意識到，你也會產生額外的過剩資本全年 68 億美元的資本支出。那麼你們如何考慮回購授權之外的超額資本產生的其他用途？

Well, Mark, I mean we always look at different alternatives out there; whether that's buying aircraft, whether that's M&A although I think that's unlikely at the moment but M&A or returning capital to shareholders. And as we think about -- as we thought about sizing this now, we thought well, we do have excess capital available, it makes sense to deploy it and this is a good way of doing it. We'll continue to look at that over time. And as you say, I expect we will generate a lot of excess capital. We'll generate north of $1 billion during the course of this year and we'll look to deploy that. I mean historically if you go back, right, most of our share repurchase authorizations were in the range of $250 million to $400 million. So it's not as though we came out with big splashy announcements and then it took us 2 years to do that. We looked at it kind of on a quarter-by-quarter basis and made those decisions. So I don't see any reason for us to change that strategy and that's how we're thinking about it.

好吧，馬克，我的意思是我們總是在尋找不同的選擇；無論是購買飛機，還是併購，儘管我認為目前不太可能，但併購或向股東返還資本。當我們考慮 - 當我們考慮現在調整規模時，我們認為很好，我們確實有多餘的可用資本，部署它是有意義的，這是一個很好的方法。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續關注這一點。正如你所說，我預計我們會產生大量過剩資本。我們將在今年期間產生超過 10 億美元的收入，我們將尋求部署它。我的意思是，從歷史上看，如果你回頭看，我們的大部分股票回購授權都在 2.5 億美元到 4 億美元之間。所以這並不是說我們發布了引人注目的重大公告，然後我們花了 2 年時間才做到這一點。我們按季度進行研究並做出這些決定。因此，我認為我們沒有任何理由改變該戰略，這就是我們考慮的方式。

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back over to today's speaker for any additional or closing remarks.

看來我們現在沒有其他問題了。我現在想將電話轉回給今天的發言人，聽取任何補充或結束語。

Thank you very much, operator. And thank you all for joining us on the call and we look forward to talking to you in a few months' time.

非常感謝你，接線員。感謝大家加入我們的電話會議，我們期待在幾個月後與您交談。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。