Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加歐特克2023財年第四季及全年業績電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁西蒙‧梅斯-史密斯先生。請開始吧。

Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year fiscal '23 results. On the line with me are Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Debbie Clifford, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. You can find the earnings press release, slide presentation and transcript of today's opening commentary on our Investor Relations website following this call.

謝謝接線員，下午好。感謝您參加本次電話會議，共同探討我們2023財年第四季及全年業績。與我一同參加的有我們的執行長Andrew Anagnost和財務長Debbie Clifford。本次電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，您也可以在autodesk.com/investor上收聽會議錄音。會議結束後，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到收益新聞稿、幻燈片簡報以及今天開場白的文字記錄。

During this call, we may make forward-looking statements about our outlook, future results and related assumptions, acquisitions, products and product capabilities and strategies. These statements reflect our best judgment based on currently known factors. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Forms 10-Q and 10-K and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會就我們的展望、未來業績及相關假設、收購、產品及產品功能和策略做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷。實際事件或結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，包括我們最新的10-Q表和10-K表，以及隨今日新聞稿提交的8-K表，了解可能導致我們的實際業績與前瞻性陳述存在差異的重要風險和其他因素。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述僅代表截至今日的觀點。如果本次電話會議在今天之後重播或回顧，會議中提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。 Autodesk 不承擔更新或修訂任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

During the call, we will quote several numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release, or Excel Financials and other supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將引用一些數字或成長變化來討論我們的財務表現。除非另有說明，否則所有引用均指同比數據。本次電話會議中提及的所有非GAAP財務資料均已在我們的新聞稿、Excel財務報表以及投資者關係網站上的其他補充資料中進行了核對。

And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我將把電話交給安德魯。

Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Autodesk's strong financial and competitive performance in fiscal 2023, despite macroeconomic, policy, geopolitical and pandemic headwinds is a testament to 3 enduring strengths: resilience, opportunity and discipline. While we fell short of the fiscal '23 goals we set in 2016, our resilient business model and geographic product and customer diversification enabled us to deliver strong growth and report record fourth quarter and full year revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow. The sum of our revenue growth and free cash flow margin, a hallmark of the most valuable companies in the world was 55% for the year.

謝謝Simon，也歡迎各位參加本次電話會議。儘管面臨宏觀經濟、政策、地緣政治和疫情等諸多不利因素，Autodesk在2023財年依然取得了強勁的財務和市場競爭力，這充分體現了我們三大持久優勢：韌性、機會和自律。雖然我們未能實現2016年設定的2023財年目標，但我們穩健的商業模式以及多元化的產品和客戶群使我們能夠實現強勁增長，並創下第四季度和全年營收、GAAP和非GAAP營業利潤率以及自由現金流的歷史新高。我們全年的營收成長率和自由現金流利潤率總和達到了55%，這是全球最具價值公司的標誌性特徵之一。

As we deliver next-generation technology and services to our customers, the transformation within and between the industries we serve will accelerate, generating significant new growth opportunities for Autodesk. We started seeing the shift towards connected digital workflows in the cloud in product design and manufacturing, then in architecture followed by building engineering and more recently construction and we are now seeing growing momentum with owners.

隨著我們向客戶提供新一代技術和服務，我們所服務產業內部及產業間的轉型將加速，為歐特克創造巨大的新成長機會。我們首先看到產品設計和製造領域開始向雲端互聯的數位化工作流程轉變，隨後是建築領域，接著是建築工程領域，最近又擴展到施工領域，而現在，我們看到業主也開始採用這種模式，而這種趨勢正在不斷增強。

For example, in Q4, our partner, [BLA-BIM] Launch Alliance, was selected by a consortium of 20 U.S. states led by the Iowa Department of Transportation to facilitate the migration from legacy 2D project delivery processes to data-rich BIM delivery processes, which are more efficient and sustainable. In anticipation of this, the Departments of Transportation involved are also completely reimagining project delivery and developing open standards for all infrastructure projects.

例如，在第四季度，我們的合作夥伴[BLA-BIM] Launch Alliance被由愛荷華州交通部牽頭的20個美國州組成的聯盟選中，負責推動從傳統的二維項目交付流程向數據豐富的BIM交付流程的過渡，後者更加高效且可持續。為此，參與的各州交通部門正在全面重新構想專案交付模式，並為所有基礎設施項目制定開放標準。

Together, these 20 states encompass more than 60% of the U.S. population. Over time, we expect more states and more owners across the globe to connect more workflows in the cloud.

這20個州的人口總數占美國總人口的60%以上。隨著時間的推移，我們預計全球將有更多州和更多企業主將更多工作流程連接到雲端。

Finally, our strategy is underpinned by disciplined and focused capital deployment through the economic cycle. This enables Autodesk to remain sufficiently well invested to realize significant benefits of its strategy while mitigating the risk of having to make expensive catch-up investments in the future.

最後，我們的策略以貫穿整個經濟週期的嚴謹而專注的資本部署為基礎。這使得歐特克能夠維持充足的投資，從而實現其策略的顯著效益，同時降低未來不得不進行代價高昂的追趕性投資的風險。

Of course, discipline and focus mean not only consistent investment, but also constant optimization to ensure investment levels remain proportionate and directed at our largest opportunities. For example, Autodesk's BIM Collaborate Pro for Civil 3D, which enables much more efficient collaboration on civil infrastructure projects saw further significant enhancements in Q4.

當然，自律和專注不僅意味著持續投資，還意味著不斷優化，以確保投資水準保持合理，並集中用於我們最大的機會。例如，Autodesk 的 BIM Collaborate Pro for Civil 3D 在第四季度得到了進一步的重大改進，該軟體能夠顯著提高土木基礎設施專案的協作效率。

To support our work with public sector owners in the United States, Autodesk for government expects to achieve FedRAMP moderate authorization soon, meaning that through our partnership with the General Services Administration, customers will be able to start using our industry-leading cloud collaboration and document management tools that meet key security standards for U.S. government projects.

為了支持我們與美國公共部門所有者的合作，Autodesk for government 預計很快就會獲得 FedRAMP 中等授權，這意味著透過我們與美國總務管理局的合作，客戶將能夠開始使用我們行業領先的雲端協作和文件管理工具，這些工具符合美國政府專案的關鍵安全標準。

I'm also pleased to report that Innovyze had a record quarter driven by adoption in a growing proportion of our enterprise accounts, which contributed over $1 million in 4 deals. Infrastructure is but one part of an expanding opportunity for Autodesk. There are so many more, and we'll tell you about them at our Investor Day on March 22. But you can see some of the fruits of that opportunity already. we signed our largest ever EBA in the fourth quarter, encompassing more personas and connecting more workflows in the cloud to drive efficiency and sustainability.

我很高興地報告，Innovyze 在本季度創下歷史新高，這主要得益於我們越來越多的企業客戶採用了我們的產品和服務，這些客戶透過 4 筆交易貢獻了超過 100 萬美元的金額。基礎設施只是 Autodesk 不斷拓展的機會之一。還有更多機會等待我們去探索，我們將在 3 月 22 日的投資者日上詳細介紹。但您現在就能看到這些機會帶來的部分成果。我們在第四季度簽署了有史以來規模最大的企業業務協議 (EBA)，涵蓋了更多用戶角色，並將更多工作流程連接到雲端，從而提升效率和永續性。

I will now turn the call over to Debbie to take you through our quarterly financial performance and guidance for the year. I'll then come back to provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives.

現在我將把電話交給黛比，由她為大家介紹我們本季的財務表現和全年展望。之後我會回來報告我們的策略成長計劃的最新進展。

Thanks, Andrew. Our fourth quarter and full year results were strong. Overall, the demand environment in Q4 remained consistent with Q3. The approaching transition from upfront to annual billings for multiyear contracts and a large renewal cohort provided a tailwind to billings and free cash flow.

謝謝安德魯。我們第四季和全年的業績都很強勁。整體而言，第四季的需求環境與第三季保持一致。多年期合約即將從預付制過渡到年付制，以及大量的續約合同，都對帳單金額和自由現金流起到了推動作用。

As Andrew mentioned, we continue to develop broader strategic partnerships with our customers and closed our largest deal to date during the quarter. The 9-digit deal is a multiyear commitment billed annually and did not have a meaningful impact on our financials during the quarter.

正如安德魯所提到的，我們持續擴大與客戶的策略合作夥伴關係，並在本季度完成了迄今為止最大的一筆交易。這筆金額高達九位數的交易是一項多年期合同，按年結算，並未對我們本季度的財務狀況產生重大影響。

Total revenue grew 9% as reported and 12% in constant currency, with subscription revenue growing by 11% as reported and 14% in constant currency. By product, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue grew 9% and AEC revenue grew 11%. Manufacturing revenue grew 4% but was up mid-teens, excluding foreign exchange movements and upfront revenue.

以報告匯率計算，總營收成長9%，以固定匯率計算成長12%；訂閱收入以報告匯率計算成長11%，以固定匯率計算成長14%。按產品劃分，AutoCAD和AutoCAD LT收入成長9%，AEC（建築、工程和施工）營收成長11%。製造業收入成長4%，但若不計匯率波動及預付款項，則增幅達15%左右。

M&E revenue was down 10%. Recall that in Q4 last year, M&E won its largest ever EBA, which included significant upfront revenue. Excluding upfront revenue, M&E grew 4%. Across the globe, revenue grew 13% in the Americas, 7% in EMEA and 4% in APAC. At constant exchange rates, EMEA and APAC grew 12% and 10%, respectively.

M&E 收入下降了 10%。回顧去年第四季度，M&E 贏得了有史以來最大的 EBA 合同，其中包括可觀的預付款。剔除預付款後，M&E 的營收成長了 4%。在全球範圍內，美洲地區的收入成長了 13%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區 (EMEA) 成長了 7%，亞太地區 (APAC) 成長了 4%。以固定匯率計算，EMEA 和 APAC 的營收分別成長了 12% 和 10%。

Direct revenue increased 5% and represented 36% of total revenue. Strong underlying enterprise and e-commerce revenue growth was partly offset by foreign exchange movements and lower upfront revenue. Our product subscription renewal rates remain strong and our net revenue retention rate remains comfortably within our 100% to 110% target range at constant exchange rates.

直接收入成長5%，佔總收入的36%。強勁的企業和電子商務收入成長部分被匯率波動和預付收入下降所抵消。我們的產品訂閱續訂率依然強勁，在固定匯率下，淨收入留存率仍維持在100%至110%的目標範圍內。

Billings increased 28% to $2.1 billion, our first quarter over $2 billion, reflecting continued solid underlying demand and a tailwind from both our largest multiyear renewal cohort and the pending removal of the discount for multiyear contracts billed upfront.

帳單金額成長 28% 至 21 億美元，第一季超過 20 億美元，反映出持續強勁的潛在需求，以及來自我們最大的多年續約群體和即將取消預付多年合約折扣的利好因素。

Total deferred revenue grew 21% to $4.6 billion. Total RPO of $5.6 billion and current RPO of $3.5 billion grew 19% and 12%, respectively. About 2 percentage points of that current RPO growth was from early renewals.

遞延收入總額增加21%至46億美元。 RPO總額為56億美元，當期RPO為35億美元，分別成長19%和12%。當期RPO成長中約有2個百分點來自提前續約。

Turning to the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin remained broadly level at 92%. Non-GAAP operating margin increased by 1 percentage point to approximately 36% with ongoing cost discipline, partly offset by revenue growth headwinds from foreign exchange movements. For the fiscal year, non-GAAP operating margin increased by 4 percentage points reflecting strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline.

接下來分析損益表。非GAAP毛利率基本維持穩定，為92%。非GAAP營業利潤率提升1個百分點至約36%，這得益於持續的成本控制，但部分被匯率波動帶來的收入成長阻力所抵銷。本財年，非GAAP營業利潤率提升4個百分點，反映了強勁的營收成長和持續的成本控制。

GAAP operating margin increased by 9 percentage points to approximately 21%. Recall, in Q4 last year, we took a lease related charge of approximately $100 million. That was part of our effort to reduce our real estate footprint and to further our hybrid workforce strategy. For the fiscal year, GAAP operating margin increased by 6 percentage points. We delivered record free cash flow in the quarter and for the full year of more than $900 million and $2 billion, respectively, reflecting our strong billings growth.

以美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算，營業利益率成長9個百分點，達到約21%。回顧去年第四季度，我們提列了約1億美元的租賃相關費用。這筆費用是我們減少房地產佔用空間、推動混合辦公模式策略的一部分。本財年，GAAP營業利潤率成長6個百分點。本季和全年自由現金流均創歷史新高，分別超過9億美元和20億美元，反映了我們強勁的帳單成長。

Turning to capital allocation. We continue to actively manage capital within our framework. As Andrew said, our strategy is underpinned by disciplined and focused capital deployment through the economic cycle. We will continue to offset dilution from our stock-based compensation program and to opportunistically accelerate repurchases when it makes sense.

關於資本配置，我們將繼續在既定框架內積極管理資本。正如安德魯所說，我們的策略以在整個經濟週期中嚴謹而專注的資本部署為基礎。我們將繼續抵消股權激勵計劃帶來的稀釋效應，並在時機成熟時加快股票回購。

During Q4, we purchased 1.1 million shares for $210 million at an average price of approximately $193 per share. For the full year, we purchased 5.5 million shares for $1.1 billion at an average price of approximately $198 per share and reduced total shares outstanding by 4 million. We retired a $350 million bond in December. Recall that we effectively refinanced this bond in October 2021 at historically low rates when we issued our first sustainability bond. Our average bond duration is now almost 7 years.

第四季度，我們以每股約193美元的平均價格，斥資2.1億美元購入110萬股股票。全年來看，我們以每股約198美元的平均價格，斥資11億美元購入550萬股股票，並將流通股總數減少了400萬股。我們在12月贖回了一筆3.5億美元的債券。需要說明的是，我們在2021年10月發行首支永續發展債券時，以歷史低利率對該債券進行了有效的再融資。目前，我們的平均債券久期接近7年。

Now let me turn to guidance. Our strong finish to fiscal '23 sets us up well for the year ahead. Overall, end market demand in Q4 fiscal '23 remained broadly consistent with Q3 fiscal '23. Channel partners remained cautiously optimistic, usage rates grew modestly, excluding Russia and China and bid activity on building connected remained robust.

現在讓我談談業績展望。 2023財年強勁的收尾為未來一年奠定了良好的基礎。整體而言，2023財年第四季終端市場需求與第三季基本持平。通路夥伴保持謹慎樂觀，除俄羅斯和中國外，使用率略有增長，樓宇互聯計畫的投標活動依然活躍。

As we said last quarter, foreign exchange movements will be a headwind to revenue growth and margins in fiscal '24. We expect FX to be about a 4 percentage point drag on reported revenue. We continue to expect the absence of recognized deferred revenue from Russia will be about a 1 percentage point drag to revenue growth.

如同我們上季所述，外匯波動將對2024財年的營收成長和利潤率構成不利影響。我們預期外匯波動將使報告收入下降約4個百分點。我們仍然預計，俄羅斯已確認的遞延收入的缺失將使收入成長下降約1個百分點。

As we've highlighted before, most recently on our Q3 earnings call, the switch from upfront annual billings for most multiyear customers creates a significant headwind for free cash flow in fiscal '24 and a smaller headwind in fiscal '25.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，最近一次是在第三季財報電話會議上，大多數多年期客戶從預付年度帳單轉向其他方式，對 2024 財年的自由現金流造成了很大的不利影響，對 2025 財年的不利影響較小。

You can see the impact on fiscal '24 in Slide 8 of our earnings deck. Change in deferred revenue increased fiscal '23 free cash flow by $790 million, but will reduce fiscal '24 free cash flow by approximately $300 million. The switch to annual billings for multiyear customers and a smaller multiyear renewal cohort are the key drivers of this $1.1 billion swing.

您可以在我們的獲利報告投影片第8頁看到對2024財年的影響。遞延收入的變動使2023財年的自由現金流增加了7.9億美元，但將使2024財年的自由現金流減少約3億美元。多年期客戶按年計費以及多年期續約客戶數量減少是造成這11億美元波動的主要原因。

The transition will also affect the linearity of free cash flow during the year, with Q1 fiscal '24 free cash flow, benefiting from the strong billings in Q4 of fiscal '23 and our largest billings quarters in the second half of the year proportionately more impacted by the switch to annual billings.

此次轉型也將影響本年度自由現金流的線性變化，2024 財年第一季的自由現金流受益於 2023 財年第四季強勁的帳單收入，而下半年的帳單收入最大的幾個季度則受到年度帳單調整的更大影響。

While we expect many customers to switch to multiyear contracts billed annually, some may choose annual contracts instead. All else equal, if this were to occur, it would proportionately reduce the unbilled portion of our total remaining performance obligations and would negatively impact total RPO growth rates.

我們預計許多客戶會轉而簽訂按年計費的多年期合同，但也有一些客戶可能會選擇簽訂年度合約。在其他條件相同的情況下，如果這種情況發生，將會按比例減少我們剩餘履約義務中未計費的部分，並對整體RPO成長率產生負面影響。

Deferred revenue, billings, current remaining performance obligations, revenue, margins and free cash flow would remain broadly unchanged in this scenario. Annual renewals create more opportunities for us to drive adoption and upsell but are without the price lock embedded in multiyear contracts. We'll keep you updated on this as the year progresses.

在這種情況下，遞延收入、帳單金額、當前剩餘履約義務、收入、利潤率和自由現金流將基本保持不變。年度續約為我們提供了更多推動產品採用和追加銷售的機會，但缺乏多年期合約中的價格鎖定條款。我們將全年持續更新相關資訊。

Our cash tax rate will return to a more normalized level of approximately 31% in fiscal '24, up from 25% in fiscal '23. We accrued significant tax assets as a result of the operating losses we generated during our business model transition. Growing profitability and more recently, rising effective tax rates across the globe, have accelerated the consumption of those tax attributes. Absent changes in tax policy, we expect our cash tax rate to remain in a range around 31% for the foreseeable future.

2024財年，我們的現金稅率將恢復到約31%的正常水平，高於2023財年的25%。由於業務模式轉型期間產生的經營虧損，我們累積了大量的稅務資產。獲利能力的成長，以及近期全球實際稅率的上升，加速了這些稅務資產的消耗。在稅收政策沒有變化的情況下，我們預計在可預見的未來，我們的現金稅率將維持在31%左右。

Putting that all together, we expect fiscal '24 revenue to be between $5.36 billion and $5.46 billion, up about 8% at the midpoint or about 13% at constant exchange rates and excluding the impact from Russia. We expect non-GAAP operating margins to be similar to fiscal '23 levels with constant currency margin improvement offset by FX headwinds.

綜合所有因素，我們預計2024財年營收將在53.6億美元至54.6億美元之間，按中間值計算增長約8%，按固定匯率計算增長約13%（不計俄羅斯的影響）。我們預期非GAAP營業利潤率將與2023財年水準相近，固定匯率下的利潤率提升將被匯率波動帶來的不利影響所抵銷。

We expect free cash flow to be between $1.15 billion and $1.25 billion. The midpoint of that range, $1.2 billion, implies a 41% reduction in free cash flow compared to fiscal '23. As I outlined earlier, the key drivers of that reduction are changes in long-term deferred revenue as a result of the shift to annual billings for multiyear customers, and a smaller multiyear renewal cohort, FX and our cash tax rate.

我們預計自由現金流將在11.5億美元至12.5億美元之間。該區間的中點12億美元意味著自由現金流較2023財年減少41%。正如我之前所述，導致這一減少的主要原因是：由於多年期客戶改為按年計費，長期遞延收入發生變化；多年期續約客戶數量減少；匯率波動以及我們的現金稅率。

The slide deck and Excel financials on our website have more details on fiscal '23 results and modeling assumptions for the full year of fiscal '24.

我們網站上的投影片和 Excel 財務報表有更多關於 2023 財年業績和 2024 財年全年建模假設的詳細資訊。

At Investor Day, we'll be looking beyond this year. As Andrew noted earlier, we remain in the relatively early innings of a transformational shift to the cloud to drive efficiency and sustainability. This is generating demand for cloud-based platforms and services which breaks down the silos within and between the industries we serve. Autodesk is uniquely well positioned to seize these opportunities, and we will continue to invest with discipline and focus to realize that growth potential.

在投資者日上，我們將展望未來。正如安德魯之前提到的，我們仍處於向雲端轉型以提高效率和永續性的早期階段。這催生了對雲端平台和服務的需求，打破了我們所服務產業內部及產業之間的資訊孤島。 Autodesk 擁有得天獨厚的優勢來掌握這些機遇，我們將繼續以嚴謹的態度和專注的精神進行投資，以實現成長潛力。

While our subscription business model and geographic product and customer diversification give us resilience when compared to many other companies, we're mindful that generational macroeconomic policy, geopolitical climate and health uncertainty make the world more volatile and less predictable than in the past. Our business will grow somewhat faster in less volatile environment and somewhat slower in more volatile environments.

雖然我們的訂閱業務模式以及地域多元化的產品和客戶群使我們比許多其他公司更具韌性，但我們也意​​識到，代際宏觀經濟政策、地緣政治環境和健康方面的不確定性，使得世界比以往更加動盪且難以預測。在波動性較低的環境下，我們的業務成長速度會略快一些；而在波動性較高的環境下，成長速度會略慢一些。

Finally, we're not just looking to have industry-leading growth, although we often do. Nor are we just looking to have industry-leading margins, although we often do. On average and over time, we are looking to have an industry-leading balance between growth and margins, and we often do. We think this balance between compounding growth and strong free cash flow margins captured in the Rule of 40 framework is the hallmark of the most valuable companies in the world, and we intend to remain one of them.

最後，我們追求的不僅僅是行業領先的成長（儘管我們經常做到），也不僅僅是行業領先的利潤率（儘管我們經常做到）。從長遠來看，我們追求的是成長與利潤率之間領先業界的平衡，而我們也經常做到。我們認為，這種在「40法則」框架下體現的複合成長與強勁自由現金流利潤率之間的平衡，是全球最具價值公司的標誌，而我們決心繼續保持這一地位。

With all this in mind, our target planning parameters over the next several years will be to grow revenue in the 10% to 15% range and generate free cash flow margins in the 30% to 35% range with the goal of reaching a Rule of 40 ratio of 45% or more over time. The path to that 45% ratio will not be linear given the drag in fiscal '24 and '25 to long-term deferred revenue and free cash flow from the shift to annual billings of multiyear contracts.

考慮到以上所有因素，我們未來幾年的目標規劃參數是：營收成長10%至15%，自由現金流利潤率達到30%至35%，最終目標是讓「40法則」比率達到45%或更高。由於2024財年和2025財年長期遞延收入和自由現金流因多年期合約轉為年度結算而受到拖累，因此實現45%比率的路徑並非一帆風順。

The rate of improvement will obviously also be somewhat determined by the macroeconomic backdrop. But let me be clear, we're managing the business to this metric, and we feel it strikes the right balance between driving top line growth and delivering on disciplined profit and cash flow growth. We intend to make meaningful steps over time toward achievement of this Rule of 45 goal regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop.

宏觀經濟環境顯然也會在一定程度上影響業績提升速度。但我要明確一點，我們正是依照這個指標來管理業務的，我們認為它能夠在推動營收成長和實現穩健的利潤及現金流成長之間取得恰當的平衡。無論宏觀經濟環境如何，我們都計劃逐步朝著實現「45法則」的目標邁出切實的步伐。

While macroeconomic and FX headwinds, along with sustained but disciplined investments in our products and platforms will slow the rate of margin improvement, we continue to expect non-GAAP operating margins to be in the 38% to 40% range by fiscal '26, albeit more likely now in the lower half of that range. We continue to see scope for further margin growth thereafter. GAAP margins will further benefit from stock-based compensation as a percent of revenue trending down towards 10% and beyond over time.

儘管宏觀經濟和匯率方面的不利因素，以及我們對產品和平台持續而審慎的投資將減緩利潤率提升的速度，但我們仍然預計到2026財年，非GAAP營業利潤率將達到38%至40%的區間，儘管目前更有可能處於該區間的下半部分。我們仍認為此後利潤率還有進一步成長的空間。隨著時間的推移，股權激勵佔收入的比例將逐漸下降至10%甚至更低，這將進一步提升GAAP利潤率。

Andrew, back to you.

安德魯，把鏡頭交給你了。

Thank you, Debbie. Our strategy is to transform the industries we serve with end-to-end cloud-based solutions that drive efficiency and sustainability for our customers. We'll tell you more about our long-term vision and plans at our Investor Day on March 22, but let me finish by updating you on our progress in the fourth quarter.

謝謝黛比。我們的策略是透過端到端的雲端解決方案，為我們服務的產業帶來變革，從而提升客戶的效率和永續性。我們將在3月22日的投資者日上詳細介紹我們的長期願景和計劃，但在此之前，我想先向大家報告我們第四季的進展。

We continue to see strong growth in AEC, fueled by customers consolidating on our solutions to connect previously siloed workflows in the cloud. Sweco, Europe's leading architecture and engineering consultancy is connecting our portfolio of products Spacemaker and Revit to audits Construction Cloud and Innovyze to streamline everything from transport and energy usage to lighting and water flows to ensure better transparency to the project life cycle.

我們持續看到AEC（建築、工程和施工）領域的強勁成長，這主要得益於客戶整合我們的解決方案，將以往孤立的工作流程連接到雲端。歐洲領先的建築和工程顧問公司Sweco正在將我們的Spacemaker和Revit產品組合與Construction Cloud和Innovyze審計平台連接起來，從而簡化從交通運輸、能源消耗到照明和水流等各個環節，確保專案生命週期的透明度。

Sweco has a thriving sustainability practice. Its new digital service, Carbon Cost Compass, which is built on Autodesk Platform Services, helps its customers model and calculate the carbon footprint and cost of different types of buildings.

Sweco在永續發展方面擁有蓬勃發展的實務經驗。其基於Autodesk平台服務所建構的全新數位化服務「碳成本指南針」（Carbon Cost Compass）可協助客戶模擬和計算不同類型建築物的碳足跡和成本。

For our construction customers, we continue to benefit from our complete end-to-end BIM solutions, which encompass design, preconstruction and field execution. In Q4, a mid-market general contractor in California, specializing in design-build projects chose to replace a competitive project management offering with Autodesk Build as it looked to improve integration further and minimize conflict with their design processes. While highlighting Build's cost management functionality as a differentiator, the customer ultimately chose Autodesk because of our longstanding and trusted partnership and shared vision on the future of construction.

對於我們的建築客戶而言，我們持續受益於我們完整的端到端 BIM 解決方案，涵蓋設計、施工前準備和現場施工。第四季度，加州一家專注於設計建造專案的中型總承包商選擇以 Autodesk Build 取代其競爭對手的專案管理產品，以進一步提升整合並最大限度地減少與設計流程的衝突。儘管 Build 的成本管理功能是其一大優勢，但該客戶最終選擇 Autodesk 是因為我們之間長期可靠的合作夥伴關係以及對建築業未來發展的共同願景。

We continue to make excellent progress on our strategic initiatives, which is driving accelerating adoption of Autodesk Construction Cloud. We added almost 1,000 new logos again, drove continued rapid growth in Autodesk Builds MAUs and generated 3x quarter-on-quarter growth in our construction bundles, which combine multiple Autodesk Construction Cloud Solutions and enable customers to standardize more rapidly on one platform.

我們在策略性舉措方面持續取得卓越進展，這正推動 Autodesk Construction Cloud 的加速普及。我們新增了近 1000 個客戶，Autodesk Builds 的每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 持續快速成長，建築解決方案包的季度環比增長也達到了三倍。這些解決方案包整合了多種 Autodesk Construction Cloud 解決方案，使客戶能夠更快地在一個平台上實現標準化。

Outside the U.S. enabling our international channel partners to sell our construction portfolio continues to drive strong growth. We still see strong growth potential in construction and Autodesk remains uniquely well positioned to capture it.

在美國以外，我們透過賦能國際通路合作夥伴銷售我們的建築產品組合，持續推動強勁成長。我們仍然看好建築業的巨大成長潛力，而歐特克憑藉其獨特的優勢，依然能夠掌握這一機會。

In manufacturing, Tata Steel, one of the world's leading steel manufacturers has used our solutions to increase efficiency and reduce costs in setting up new operations to optimize effectively between its equipment, civil, structural and plant infrastructure teams. Tata Steel uses Autodesk's AEC and manufacturing collections and Vault. Through the integration of data from various vendors on a single platform, Tata Steel leverages simulation and class detection in a virtual environment, eliminating potential conflicts that can have a huge impact if they occur during physical installation.

在製造領域，全球領先的鋼鐵製造商之一塔塔鋼鐵公司利用我們的解決方案，在新建營運專案中提升效率、降低成本，並有效優化其設備、土木工程、結構和工廠基礎設施團隊之間的協作。塔塔鋼鐵公司採用 Autodesk 的 AEC 和製造產品庫以及 Vault 平台。透過將不同供應商的資料整合到單一平台上，塔塔鋼鐵公司利用虛擬環境中的模擬和類別檢測功能，消除了在實際安裝過程中可能造成巨大影響的潛在衝突。

In automotive, we continue to strengthen and expand our partnerships, both within and beyond the design studio as OEMs transform and connect factories. A leading manufacturer in the U.S. expanded its EBA in Q4, leveraging the cutting-edge visualization technology in VRED Pro to more effectively process executive design reviews and reach final designs more quickly. Autodesk is now partnering with the customer as it renovates its factories for its new fleet of electric vehicles, ensuring it controls the construction flow and owns its own data by standardizing on Autodesk Construction Cloud.

在汽車領域，隨著原始設備製造商 (OEM) 進行工廠轉型和互聯互通，我們持續加強並拓展與設計工作室內外合作夥伴的合作。美國一家領先的汽車製造商在第四季度擴展了其企業業務架構 (EBA)，利用 VRED Pro 中的尖端視覺化技術，更有效率地處理高階主管設計評審，並更快地完成最終設計。目前，Autodesk 正與該客戶合作，協助其改造工廠以生產新的電動車，並透過採用 Autodesk Construction Cloud 標準化解決方案，確保客戶掌控施工流程並擁有自身數據。

Customers are also beginning to merge their design, manufacturing and production management workflows with Fusion and Prodsmart. In Q4, a manufacturer based in the U.K., which has more than doubled in size in the last 18 months switched from a competitor's CAD tool to Fusion 360 and extensions for its integrated CAD and CAM capabilities. With Prodsmart as part of its connected platform, the customer can instantly generate a bill of materials after creating a design and link directly to inventories, eliminating tedious work and saving time for higher-value opportunities.

客戶也開始將設計、製造和生產管理工作流程與 Fusion 360 和 Prodsmart 整合。第四季度，一家總部位於英國的製造商（過去 18 個月規模擴大了一倍多）從競爭對手的 CAD 工具切換到 Fusion 360 及其整合 CAD 和 CAM 功能的擴充程式。借助 Prodsmart 作為其互聯平台的一部分，客戶可以在創建設計後立即生成物料清單並直接連結到庫存，從而消除繁瑣的工作，節省時間，專注於更高價值的機會。

We ended the quarter with 223,000 Fusion 360 subscribers, a number which does not include extensions where units increased more than 100% year-over-year. During the quarter, we launched the Signal Integrity extension for Fusion powered by Ansys, which enables designers to analyze their PCB electromagnetic performance, ensure compliant products and power a faster development cycle at lower cost. We continue to see strength in PLM, signing our largest ever cloud data management deal and growing more than 30% in the quarter.

本季末，Fusion 360 的用戶數量達到 22.3 萬，數字不包括用戶數量年增超過 100% 的擴充功能。本季度，我們推出了由 Ansys 支援的 Fusion 訊號完整性擴充功能，該功能使設計人員能夠分析 PCB 的電磁性能，確保產品符合規範，並以更低的成本加快開發週期。 PLM 業務持續強勁成長，我們簽署了有史以來規模最大的雲端資料管理協議，本季成長超過 30%。

In education, leading universities continue to modernize their courses, ensuring students will learn the in-demand skills in the future. At North Columbia University, the prestigious design for industry's program students are now choosing to use Fusion 360 within their design process and across many of their modules along with real-world live projects led by industry partners. Their switch is primarily down to its ease of use and cross-platform availability. While our software remains free for educators and students Tomorrow's design leaders are bringing Fusion 360 to new and established manufacturers.

在教育領域，頂尖大學不斷革新課程，確保學生掌握未來市場所需的技能。北哥倫比亞大學享有盛譽的「面向行業的設計」課程學生，如今選擇在設計流程和眾多模組中使用 Fusion 360，並將其應用於由行業合作夥伴指導的真實專案。他們選擇 Fusion 360 的主要原因在於其易用性和跨平台相容性。雖然我們的軟體仍然免費向教育工作者和學生開放，但未來的設計領導者正在將 Fusion 360 帶給新興和成熟的製造商。

We will continue to evolve our business model offerings to match customer needs and enable users to participate in our ecosystem more productively. For example, a European manufacturer which operates in over 100 countries and 6 R&D facilities worldwide transition to our named user model with premium plan providing enhanced security from single sign-on and approved efficiency from 24/7 technical support. Our partners at mentioned machine supported the transition with detailed knowledge and analysis of the customer's usage behavior resulting in an optimized flex token package for its occasional users, providing them with ongoing software access without acquiring a full-time subscription.

我們將持續改進業務模式，以滿足客戶需求，並幫助使用者更有效率地參與我們的生態系統。例如，一家業務遍及100多個國家、​​在全球設有6個研發中心的歐洲製造商，已轉型採用我們的指定用戶模式，其高級套餐透過單一登入提供更高的安全性，並透過全天候技術支援確保高效運作。我們的合作夥伴（此處提及的機器公司）憑藉對客戶使用行為的深入了解和分析，為此次轉型提供了支持，最終為該製造商的非固定用戶量身定制了靈活令牌套餐，使他們無需購買全額訂閱即可持續訪問軟體。

And finally, we continue to work with noncompliant users to find flexible and compliant solutions that ensure they have access to the most current and secure software. During the quarter, we closed 9 deals over $1 million and 23 deals over $500,000 with our license compliance initiatives. Returning to where I started, resilience, opportunity and discipline were important contributors to our fiscal '23 results and will remain the key drivers of our future success. We're excited to share our plans with you at our Investor Day on March 22.

最後，我們繼續與不合規用戶合作，尋找靈活且合規的解決方案，確保他們能夠存取最新、最安全的軟體。本季度，我們透過許可合規計畫完成了9筆超過100萬美元的交易和23筆超過50萬美元的交易。回到我最初的想法，韌性、機會和自律是我們2023財年業績的重要貢獻者，並將繼續是我們未來成功的關鍵驅動力。我們很高興在3月22日的投資者日上與您分享我們的計劃。

Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

接線員，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Saket Kalia。

Debbie, maybe for you. I was wondering if you could just give us a little bit more context about how you're thinking about fiscal '24 and beyond from a guidance perspective?

黛比，也許對你來說是這樣。我想請你從業績指引的角度，再詳細談談你對2024財年及以後的展望？

Sure, Saket. So first, the overall demand environment in Q4 was relatively consistent with what we saw in Q3. If I drill first into the specifics on the guide; for billings, of course, we have multiyear to annual billings transition, that's creating a headwind as expected. The transition doesn't have an impact on revenue. It's just a change in billings frequency.

當然，Saket。首先，第四季的整體需求環境與第三季基本一致。如果我先深入分析一下具體情況；就帳單而言，我們當然要從多年計費過渡到年度計費，這不出所料地帶來了一些不利因素。但這種過渡不會影響收入，只是計費頻率改變了。

On revenue, as we outlined last quarter, we're seeing a negative impact from FX and the Russia exit. Together, that represents 5 points of headwind to growth. If we normalize for that, the revenue growth range would be in the low teens.

正如我們上季所述，營收方面，匯率波動和退出俄羅斯市場都帶來了負面影響。這兩方面加起來，對成長構成了5個百分點的阻力。若剔除這些因素，營收成長區間將維持在10%左右。

On margin, we're managing the flat margins on an as-reported basis year-over-year. That's consistent with what we said on the last call. We have a strong balance sheet. We have conviction in our strategy. So we want to continue to invest during the cycle so that we can maintain our momentum, but not so much so that we see a detriment to our margin outlook.

就利潤率而言，我們按報告數據計算，利潤率與去年同期持平。這與我們上次電話會議的說法一致。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表，對我們的策略充滿信心。因此，我們希望在經濟週期中繼續投資，以保持成長勢頭，但不會過度投資而損害我們的利潤率預期。

And I want to point out that our margin guide on a constant currency basis represents improvement year-on-year.

我想指出，以固定匯率計算，我們的利潤率預期較上年有所提升。

And then finally, on cash flow, the headwind to billings from the transition to annual billings has a downstream effect on cash flow, of course. As I mentioned in the opening commentary, the swing in long-term deferred revenue is having a negative impact of around $1.1 billion to $1.1 billion to fiscal '24 cash flow. That headwind is driven primarily by that switch to annual billings for multiyear customers.

最後，關於現金流，向年度結算模式過渡帶來的帳單收入下降，自然會對現金流產生後續影響。正如我在開篇評論中提到的，長期遞延收入的波動將對2024財年的現金流量造成約11億美元的負面影響。此不利因素主要源自於多年期客戶向年度結算模式的轉變。

And if we take that with other factors like a lower multiyear renewal cohort and higher cash taxes, we get to that $1.2 billion guidance midpoint. Our goal is to set ourselves up for success in fiscal '24 and for the long term. And it's that same sort of thinking that's driving how we're thinking about the longer-term financial model.

如果我們把這些因素，例如多年續約合約數量減少和現金稅收增加等其他因素考慮在內，就能得出12億美元的預期中位數。我們的目標是為2024財年以及長遠發展奠定成功基礎。正是這種思路驅動著我們思考長期財務模式。

On revenue, our target planning range of 10% to 15%, it remains in that double-digit territory. On margin, we're targeting a margin in the 38% to 40% range in the fiscal '23 to '26 window. But we said that because of the macro and FX headwinds that we're seeing, we think it's more likely now that it's going to be in the lower half of that range.

營收方面，我們先前設定的目標成長區間為10%至15%，目前仍維持在兩位數成長區間。利潤率方面，我們原計劃在2023至2026財年期間達到38%至40%的目標區間。但鑑於目前宏觀經濟和匯率的不利因素，我們認為實際利潤率更有可能處於該區間的下半部。

And then on cash flow, we'll still work towards double-digit CAGR growth through fiscal '26, but it looks less likely though, given the impact of cash taxes, FX volatility and a stronger-than-expected fiscal '23 finish. As we look ahead, we're focused on managing the business to a Rule of 45 ratio or better, which after we get through this multiyear to annual billings transition, we think strikes the right balance between driving top line growth and delivering on disciplined profit and cash flow.

至於現金流方面，我們仍將努力實現2026財年兩位數的複合年增長率，但考慮到現金稅收、匯率波動以及2023財年業績好於預期等因素的影響，這一目標實現的可能性似乎有所降低。展望未來，我們將專注於將業務管理至「45法則」比率或更高水平。我們認為，在完成多年計費向年度計費的過渡後，這一目標能夠在推動營收成長和實現穩健的利潤及現金流之間取得最佳平衡。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. Maybe a follow-up for you, Debbie, if I may. I guess now that the fiscal 2024 has finally arrived, if you will. Could you just maybe walk through a little bit of detail just on that impact of switching from upfront to annual billings for those multiyear contracts?

明白了，明白了，這很有幫助。黛比，如果可以的話，我想再問你一個問題。既然2024財年終於到了，你能不能詳細解釋一下，對於那些多年期合同，從預付改為年付會帶來哪些影響？

Yes. It has finally arrived. It's nice to finally be having these conversations, Saket. So the transition to annual billings, the rollout is happening on schedule. Our systems will be ready. We're assuming that we sell multiyear upfront through March 27. And then at the March 28 go-live that we only sell multiyear with annual billing terms in mature countries for our platinum and gold partners. That represents a significant majority of the eligible population.

是的，終於來了。薩凱特，很高興終於可以進行這些對話了。所以，向年度結算的過渡和推廣正在按計劃進行。我們的系統已經準備就緒。我們計劃在3月27日之前預售多年合約。然後在3月28日正式上線後，我們將只在成熟國家/地區為我們的白金和黃金合作夥伴銷售採用年度結算條款的多年合約。這涵蓋了絕大多數符合條件的使用者群體。

There's going to be some remaining multiyear upfront in the forecast beyond March 27. That's going to be coming primarily from eStore in emerging countries, but it's relatively small in comparison to the volume that we saw in fiscal '23. And as we move those populations to annual billings, we'll see a follow-on headwind to free cash flow in fiscal '25. It's consistent with what I said in the opening commentary that the past is not going to be linear.

3月27日之後的預測中仍會有一些多年期預付款項。這些預付款項主要來自新興國家的電商平台，但與2023財年的交易量相比，規模相對較小。隨著我們將這些客戶的帳單週期改為年度結算，2025財年的自由現金流將面臨持續的阻力。這與我在開篇評論中提到的「過去並非線性發展」的觀點一致。

We're assuming that the same proportion of our business that's been multiyear remains multiyear. We think that the price lock that you get in a multiyear contract will entice our customers to continue to buy multiyear, especially in the inflationary environment that we're in. But of course, it's possible that some of our customers choose annual contracts rather than multiyear contracts with annual billings. That wouldn't impact billings or most other financial metrics in fiscal '24, but it would negatively impact the total RPO growth rate.

我們假設多年期合約業務的比例將保持不變。我們認為，多年期合約的價格鎖定機制將吸引客戶繼續購買多年期合約，尤其是在當前通膨環境下。當然，部分客戶也可能選擇年度合約而非按年結算的多年合約。這不會影響2024財年的帳單金額或其他大多數財務指標，但會對整體RPO成長率產生負面影響。

At the end of the day, it's a win-win for us. If our customers choose to go with annual contracts, it gives us an opportunity to engage with them upon renewal to drive adoption and upsell and our renewal rates are strong. So this is something we'll keep you posted on as the year progresses.

最終，這對我們來說是雙贏的。如果客戶選擇簽訂年度合同，我們就有機會在續約時與他們互動，推動產品採用和追加銷售，而且我們的續約率一直很高。因此，我們會隨著時間的推移，持續向您報告最新進展。

Got it. Very clear. Looking forward to the Analyst Day, guys.

明白了，非常清楚。期待各位分析師日！

Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

Andrew, let me start with you. Your 10-Q for the third quarter had some new and intriguing language with regard to how you foresee the evolution of your sales model, specifically, your relationship with VARs and VADs and there's a lot of complexities in the language there. So perhaps you could talk about how you envision the evolution of your business in terms of the operational or fulfillment or license management effects that you foresee over time or the margin effects over time. And where you think your sales mix ultimately goes over the next number of years in terms of direct versus indirect? Then a follow-up.

安德魯，我先問你。在你第三季的10-Q報告中，關於你對銷售模式未來發展的預測，特別是你與增值經銷商（VAR）和增值分銷商（VAD）的關係，出現了一些新的、引人入勝的表述，其中涉及很多複雜的內容。所以，你能不能談談你對業務發展的設想，例如你預見的營運、履行、許可管理或利潤率等方面的變化？你認為未來幾年你的銷售組合（包括直接銷售和間接銷售）最終會如何改變？接下來還有個問題。

Okay. Great. So I like the way you highlighted. This is an evolution. We've been evolving in a particular direction over time. Obviously, several years back, I talked about the 50-50 mix of direct and indirect and we've been driving a lot of growth in direct channels. We've been driving a lot of growth in direct enterprise business, and all of these things kind of like weave together into a longer-term plan.

好的，太好了。我喜歡你強調的方式。這是一個發展過程。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在朝著某個特定的方向發展。顯然，幾年前，我談到了直銷和間接通路各佔50%的比例，而我們一直在推動直銷通路的快速成長。我們也一直在推動企業直銷業務的快速成長，所有這些都交織在一起，構成了一個長期的規劃。

And now what you're seeing is doing is we're driving a lot more direct engagement with some of our value-added resellers. So some of the changes that you saw in there are [pre-seed] staging more and more direct engagement with our value-added resellers and less smaller engagements and fewer engagements between intermediates and our value-added resellers, which makes total sense between the systems evolutions we've been executing on in the direction we're going.

現在您看到的是，我們正在加強與一些加值經銷商的直接互動。因此，您在種子輪前看到的一些變化包括：逐步增加與加值經銷商的直接互動，減少中間商與加值經銷商之間的小規模互動，這與我們一直在推進的系統演進方向完全吻合。

So long term, we're still driving towards that same type of balance that we've been talking about. But as our systems improve, we're looking for different types of engagement models with our value-added reseller channel.

所以從長遠來看，我們仍然致力於實現我們一直在討論的那種平衡。但隨著我們系統的改進，我們正在尋求與加值經銷商通路建立不同的合作模式。

Okay. Second question, the slide deck gives us the annual update on your installed base of subscription. The net increase was about $600,000 for the year, net of trade-ins. Looking ahead, how does your long-term growth model foresee the contribution of volume growth and particularly the effect as well of improving the richness of the mix, perhaps to more collections and so forth? And perhaps by end market. When you think about manufacturing, that volume looks like it's maybe 10th of your net new volume per year. So you have a lot of volume that has to come from other segments outside of manufacturing. So perhaps you could talk about that.

好的。第二個問題，投影片中提供了你們訂閱用戶年度更新數據。扣除以舊換新後，年度淨增長約為 60 萬美元。展望未來，你們的長期成長模型如何預測銷售成長的貢獻，特別是豐富產品組合（例如增加更多系列產品等）的影響？以及終端市場的影響。就製造環節而言，其銷售量似乎只佔你們每年新增淨銷售量的十分之一。因此，你們的大部分銷售量必須來自製造環節以外的其他領域。或許您可以談談這方面。

Sure, I'll take that one, Jay. So we start at the top. Yes, subscriptions grew in a healthy way. I just want to remind, however, that there's a lot of variability in that metric, given that we have such a wide diversity of business models in play, things like Flex, EBAs, account-based pricing and so on and so forth. So it does make it less and less of a relevant metric for us to manage business performance.

好的，傑伊，我來回答這個問題。那我們從頭開始。沒錯，訂閱量成長動能良好。不過，我想提醒大家，鑑於我們目前採用的商業模式多種多樣，例如靈活付費模式、企業協議、基於帳戶的定價等等，這個指標的波動性很大。因此，它作為衡量業務績效的指標，其相關性正在逐漸降低。

We're more focused on new and renewal ACV. They both posted solid growth in Q4. As we think about new ACV. That's the proxy for, I think, the spirit of your question. We generated across both volume and also stronger unit economics, things like price mix and partner margins. In general, historically, we've seen it come from roughly equally across those sources, and it kind of flexes up or down depending on the demand environment that we're in.

我們更關注新簽合約和續約合約的年度合約價值 (ACV)。這兩項指標在第四季度均實現了穩健成長。說到新簽合約的年度合約價值，我認為這才是您問題的核心所在。我們在銷售和單位經濟效益方面都取得了成長，例如價格組合和合作夥伴利潤率。總的來說，從歷史數據來看，這些成長來源大致相當，但會根據市場需求環境而有所波動。

We could see some puts and takes like when COVID hit, we saw more growth from volume because -- volume versus price because we were more sensitive to price increases at the time that the pandemic hit. And then obviously, when we're in a situation where we change prices at all, we might see more growth coming from price.

我們可以看到一些利弊權衡，例如新冠疫情爆發初期，銷售成長更為顯著，因為當時我們對價格上漲更為敏感。顯然，一旦需要調整價格，價格上漲帶來的成長可能會更多。

But all in all, as we think about achieving some of the long-term growth parameters that I talked about, we're thinking about it as a roughly equal split across volume, price mix ASP over time.

但總而言之，當我們考慮實現我剛才提到的一些長期成長指標時，我們認為應該在銷售量、價格組合和平均售價方面實現大致均衡的分配。

Andrew, did you want to comment little bit on the segment?

安德魯，你想對這一段內容稍作評論嗎？

Thanks. Jay, your comment on statements, all right? As you know, and I know you're aware, as we look at the various segments you do business in, we're moving in a situation where we're getting deeply entrenched in both the design and make side of our customers' business. So we also pay attention to the fact that even within manufacturing and AEC and all these things, we're going to be adding a lot more subscribers in some of the downstream processes in other parts of the process, which is going to be an important engine even within some of the segments that you discussed. And I know you're aware of that. I just wanted to reinforce it a little bit.

謝謝。傑伊，關於聲明，你有什麼看法？如你所知，我也知道你也明白，當我們審視我們開展業務的各個領域時，我們正逐漸深入客戶業務的設計和製造環節。因此，我們也注意到，即使在製造業、建築、工程和施工（AEC）等行業，我們也會在下游流程的其他環節增加更多用戶，這將成為你剛才提到的某些領域的重要驅動力。我知道你也意識到了這一點，我只是想再強調一下。

Our next question comes on the line of Adam Borg of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Adam Borg。

Maybe Andrew, on Innovyze, it was interesting to hear and great to hear about the record quarter. We picked up some growing traction in our check. I'd love to hear a little bit more about what's driving this and where we are in the migration more broadly to subscription, given it's more legacy business model? And then I have a follow-up.

安德魯，關於Innovyze，聽到你們創紀錄的季度業績真是令人振奮。我們的業績也穩定成長。我很想了解推動這一成長的因素，以及考慮到我們目前較傳統的商業模式，我們在向訂閱模式轉型方面進展如何？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. So it's very early in the migration. But in general, Innovyze, we had a record quarter all right? And the biggest thing that was driving some of that record growth is that now Innovyze can be incorporated into a lot of our enterprise business agreements and in some of our engagement with our largest accounts. And guess what, there's a hunger for the solution. So there's a lot more direct engagement with customers around Innovyze that's really propelling the growth right now.

是的。遷移工作還處於非常早期的階段。但總的來說，Innovyze 剛剛經歷了一個創紀錄的季度。推動這項創紀錄成長的最大因素是，現在 Innovyze 可以整合到我們許多企業業務協議以及與一些最大客戶的合作中。而且，市場對這個解決方案的需求非常旺盛。因此，目前與客戶就 Innovyze 進行的更多直接互動，正是推動成長的關鍵所在。

We're still very much in the early stages of activating our channel. So we've activated our major accounts team, and we're still working to activate our channel. And the subscription transition, super early stages just starting, and that we'll give you updates on that as time goes on.

我們目前仍處於頻道啟動的早期階段。我們已經啟動了主要客戶團隊，但頻道本身仍在啟動工作中。訂閱過渡工作也剛開始，目前還處於非常早期的階段，我們會隨著時間的推移及時向大家更新相關資訊。

Maybe just a quick follow-up on the macro. You guys are clear that things seem to be consistent quarter-over-quarter. I'd love to maybe just try go down one step deeper. Any observations around customers switching more to point solutions from collections or anything around RT or perhaps even more interest in Flex given the macro?

或許可以就宏觀層面做一個簡短的後續跟進。你們都清楚，各季度之間的數據似乎保持穩定。我想更深入地了解一下。你們有沒有觀察到客戶更多地從集中式服務轉向單點解決方案，或者關於即時服務（RT）或靈活服務（Flex）方面的情況？有鑑於宏觀層面，客戶的興趣是否增加？

Yes. So actually, there's pretty consistent customer behavior across segments and sizes of customers. So there's not any kind of switching behavior or downgrading behavior. And Flex tends to be to a large measure, and it's very early days with Flex, tends to be incremental to our business rather than detrimental to our business. So in general, we're not seeing any kind of changes in mix as things go on. I will say, from a segment perspective, while all the segments grew, our larger customers grew faster than our smaller ones, but everybody was growing.

是的。實際上，不同客戶群和規模的客戶行為相當一致。因此，不存在任何轉換或降級行為。而且，Flex 在很大程度上（儘管 Flex 還處於早期階段）對我們的業務來說是促進而非損害。所以總的來說，隨著時間的推移，我們沒有看到客戶組合有任何變化。從客戶群的角度來看，雖然所有客戶群都在成長，但大客戶的成長速度比小客戶更快，不過所有客戶群都在成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink of RW Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 RW Baird 公司的 Joe Vruwink。

I wanted to go back and give more detail on what you're doing with the public sector around project delivery. And I guess I'm curious how this compares to the evolution of the commercial side of your business. So maybe the analogy I will use, I think, BIM 360 launched in 2012, and we got Construction Cloud in 2019 and here we are today is what you're announcing now or kind of the conversations you're having in the public space with owners. Is it closer to 2012? Or is it kind of farther along and has the potential to progress more quickly?

我想回顧一下，更詳細地談談你們在公共部門專案交付方面所做的工作。我很好奇這與你們商業業務的發展有何異同。或許我可以這樣類比：BIM 360 於 2012 年推出，Construction Cloud 於 2019 年上線，而如今你們在公共領域與業主進行的對話，與你們現在宣布的內容或對話相比，更接近 2012 年的水平嗎？還是已經發展得更進一步，有潛力更快地取得進展？

Joe, I think that's a very astute question, right? And I think you're pointing to some of the important things about what we're doing with public sector in general. You probably noticed in the opening commentary, our comments about FedRAMP things associated with that. All of these things, FedRAMP, our engagement with the infrastructure partner and DOTs that I talked about in the opening communicator, all of these are part and parcel of laying the groundwork for more and more modernization inside of these department of transportation and larger owners in terms of infrastructure; federal owners, European owners as well.

喬，我覺得你這個問題問得非常精闢，對吧？你指出了我們在公共部門工作中一些重要的方面。你可能在開場白中註意到了，我們提到了FedRAMP及其相關內容。所有這些，包括FedRAMP、我們與基礎設施合作夥伴以及我在開場白中提到的各州交通運輸部（DOT）的合作，都是為了推動交通運輸部以及更大的基礎設施所有者（包括聯邦政府和歐洲的所有者）進行更多現代化改造而奠定的基礎。

All of that will continue to build out in a way very similar to what you described in terms of entering into construction. It's a longer-term play, right? It does -- it will take time. So it's still early innings in all of these things. But you can see increasing activity, BIM specifications coming out more and more within the Department of Transportation community and a desire to modernize the stacks.

所有這些都將以與您之前描述的進入建設領域非常相似的方式繼續發展。這是一個長期的過程，對吧？的確如此——這需要時間。所以，所有這些都還處於早期階段。但可以看到，交通運輸部門內部的活動日益活躍，BIM規範也越來越多，他們也希望對煙囪進行現代化改造。

And that's a big push right now. A lot of these DOTs, they're stuck in a different era of software and solutions, and they're looking to modernize and this isn't just true in the U.S. It's also true in Europe. We're engaging in more and more discussions with countries in the European Union about some of the BIM standards they're trying to drive into their infrastructure projects. And that's going to have a compounding effect on how people want to engage with different kinds of solutions in the infrastructure space, but still early journey.

目前，這方面的工作正處於起步階段。許多交通運輸部門（DOT）仍然停留在過去的軟體和解決方案時代，他們正在尋求現代化轉型，這種情況不僅存在於美國，在歐洲也同樣存在。我們正在與歐盟各國就他們試圖在其基礎設施項目中推廣的一些BIM標準展開越來越多的討論。這將對人們在基礎設施領域使用不同解決方案的方式產生連鎖反應，但這仍處於早期階段。

Yes, great. That's helpful. And then -- just on the 10% to 15% growth parameter, I guess, as I think about the backdrop in fiscal 2024, I wouldn't label it as easy. And yet the guidance, I think, calls for something closer to 12% organic. So I guess the question is what happens incrementally in kind of a planning scenario relative to a challenging backdrop in 2024, where 10% type growth becomes a plausible outcome?

是的，太好了，這很有幫助。然後——就10%到15%的成長目標而言，考慮到2024財年的背景，我認為實現起來並不容易。然而，我認為公司給的指引是接近12%的內生成長。所以，我想問的是，在2024年充滿挑戰的背景下，如何逐步製定計劃，才能讓10%的成長成為可能？

Yes. So look, first off, let's comment about how resilient our business is and how we demonstrate that resilience over the last few years. We believe we've put everything in the right kind of scope, and we've aligned things pretty carefully. If we saw an environment where we saw downward pressure on our margin expectations for the year, have levers within the company that we can pull that has nothing to do with layoffs or any of the things you're seeing in the rest of the tech sector that we could pull to ensure that we hit those targets. So we feel pretty confident about what we've laid out and how we could hit it even if there were changes in the economic environment.

是的。首先，我們來談談我們業務的韌性，以及過去幾年我們如何展現這種韌性。我們相信我們已經把所有事情都安排在了合適的範圍內，並且進行了非常周密的協調。如果我們發現市場環境對年度利潤率預期構成下行壓力，公司內部也有一些可以採取的措施，這些措施與裁員或其他科技公司正在採取的措施無關，我們可以確保實現這些目標。因此，我們對我們所製定的計劃以及即使經濟環境發生變化，我們也能實現目標的能力充滿信心。

Debbie, do you want to add some commentary?

黛比，你想補充一些評論嗎？

Yes, sure. A couple of things I would say. First, overall, I mean, we're watching the macro backdrop closely, and I said that it was broadly unchanged. Europe was a bit better. U.S., a bit worse. Asia, about the same. So overall, on the whole, the demand environment was broadly similar. We've reflected all of that into our guidance. The leading indicators remain strong.

當然。我有幾點要補充。首先，整體而言，我們一直在密切關注宏觀經濟環境，正如我之前所說，宏觀經濟環境基本上保持不變。歐洲的情況略有好轉，美國略有惡化，亞洲的情況基本上持平。因此，整體而言，需求環境大致相似。我們已將所有這些因素反映在我們的業績指引中。領先指標依然強勁。

And another way to think about it would be that if you look at revenue, the implied growth rate in Q4 of our fiscal '23 is 9%. If you extend that into fiscal '24, add another point of currency headwind, you're squarely at the guidance midpoint for fiscal '24. So we're kind of already at that rate. And we feel comfortable with the guidance that we've set.

換個角度來看，如果看營收，我們2023財年第四季的隱含成長率是9%。如果把這個成長率推算到2024財年，再加上匯率波動帶來的不利影響，就剛好達到了2024財年業績指引的中點。所以，我們其實已經達到這個成長率了。我們對目前設定的業績指引感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Funk of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可‧芬克。

Yes. A couple if I could. So first, the noncompliant transition during the quarter was greater than we expected, a very strong rate. Just curious to kind of change in push versus pull strategy there? And then how additive growth that might be in fiscal '24 and beyond?

是的。如果可以的話，我想提幾個問題。首先，本季不合規過渡期比我們預期的要長，比例非常高。我只是好奇，在這種情況下，推動策略和拉動策略之間是否需要做出一些調整？其次，這種調整對2024財年及以後的成長會有怎樣的影響？

Yes. So there's no change in our approach to noncompliance, right? As I've said in many times, and I want to keep reinforcing, we continue to develop efficiencies. We continue to be able to identify to higher precision, who is actually noncompliant and who actually isn't and we're building up a steady base of business as we move forward. But we're not looking to accelerate it or push it harder or drive it in any particular direction. We're just allowing it to be kind of a steady incremental growth engine within our business and kind of continue to deliver it year after year after year.

是的。所以我們處理違規行為的方式沒有改變，對吧？正如我多次強調的，而且我還要再次強調，我們會持續提高效率。我們能夠更精準地識別哪些人真正違規，哪些人沒有違規，並且我們正在穩步推進業務發展。但我們並不打算加速或加大力度，也不打算將其導向任何特定方向。我們只是讓它成為我們業務中一個穩定成長的引擎，並年復一年地持續發展。

And that will continue to be our strategy. One, we think it's the right thing to do for the company, the right thing to do for our customers. It gives our customers time to get themselves compliant because just the fact that we're out there engaged in compliance activity encourages people to ask themselves if they should be compliant, so there's other business levers here. And the more carefully we do this and the more incrementally we do this, the better the outcome is for the entire ecosystem. So no real change in how we're approaching that.

這將繼續是我們的策略。首先，我們認為這對公司和我們的客戶來說都是正確的做法。這能讓我們的客戶有時間確保合規，因為我們積極進行合規活動本身就能促使人們思考自己是否應該合規，從而為企業帶來其他方面的推動作用。而且，我們越謹慎、越循序漸進地推進這項工作，對整個生態系統就越有利。因此，我們在這方面的做法不會有實質的改變。

And then Debbie, you mentioned that the inflationary environment might affect how customers think about the shift for multiyear to annual. Just curious if the rising rate environment affects how you think about that shift from upfront payment for multiyear to annual bill. Does it change the math for you?

黛比，你剛才提到通膨環境可能會影響客戶對多年期付款轉為年付的看法。我很好奇，利率上升的環境是否也會影響你對這種從多年期預付款轉為年付的看法？它會改變你的計算方式嗎？

It doesn't in any meaningful way, as I said. It's really a win-win for us because with annual contracts, we get an opportunity to engage with our customers upon renewal to drive upsell and make sure that there is adoption. Obviously, with a price lock and our customers signing on the multiyear contracts, we have a 100% renewal rate in any given period, but there's less of that opportunity to engage. So from our standpoint, it's a win-win.

正如我所說，這在任何意義上都不會造成影響。這對我們來說確實是雙贏，因為簽訂年度合約後，我們有機會在續約時與客戶互動，推動追加銷售並確保產品被採用。顯然，如果價格鎖定且客戶簽訂多年合同，我們在任何時期都能實現100%的續約率，但互動機會就相應減少了。所以從我們的角度來看，這仍然是雙贏。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Hedberg of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Matt Hedberg。

Andrew, kind of a high-level one for you. You guys have been focused on generative design for a while now. And with all the news on AI recently, I'm wondering if you can kind of give us your perspective on how Autodesk plans to leverage AI and sort of the impact on design?

Andrew，這個問題對你來說可能有點高屋建瓴。你們公司一直以來都專注於生成式設計。最近人工智慧領域新聞不斷，我想請你談談Autodesk計畫如何利用人工智慧，以及人工智慧對設計的影響？

Yes. So ChatGPT has obviously given a massive amount of validation to the potential of AI. It is a particular horizontal solution, and we intend to leverage that horizontal solution in some of our solutions. In fact, you're probably aware that Microsoft and Satya Nadela himself demoed a natural language processing tool for generating [mindscripts for both direct mind, for bypass] and it works fabulously, right? These are things that provide real leverage to our customers.

是的。 ChatGPT 顯然極大地驗證了人工智慧的潛力。它是一種獨特的橫向解決方案，我們計劃在一些解決方案中利用這種橫向解決方案。事實上，您可能已經知道，微軟和薩蒂亞·納德拉本人演示了一種用於生成[直接思維和旁路思維]的自然語言處理工具，而且效果非常好，對吧？這些都能為我們的客戶帶來真正的優勢。

However, one of the things I really want you to be aware of, Matt, is that the real vertical value comes when we start training on data that is directly used by our customers to do particular things or design or build something. And that comes at the user productivity level, the company productivity level and the ecosystem productivity level.

然而，馬特，我真正想讓你明白的一點是，真正的垂直價值在於我們開始使用客戶直接用於執行特定任務、設計或建立產品的資料進行訓練。這體現在用戶生產力、公司生產力和生態系統生產力三個層面。

And that's going to unlock a lot of potential as we develop things that cut across all of what our customers can do like generative design, by the way, but probably heading in even other directions.

這將釋放出巨大的潛力，因為我們將開發出能夠跨越客戶所有業務範圍的產品，例如生成式設計，而且很可能會朝著其他方向發展。

And that's going to take time to develop. It's going to take opportunities for us to engage with customers in terms of using some of their data. But I want you to pay attention to that long-term horizon on doing real training on customer data, which will be where the revolution comes from.

這需要時間來發展。我們需要機會與客戶互動，並利用他們的一些數據。但我希望你們關注的是基於客戶資料進行真正培訓的長期目標，這才是改變的來源。

Got it. Got it. And then Debbie, sort of the question that I think a lot us are getting on from folks is the levels of conservatism in the guide? And I'm sure it's based on what you see today is how you're sort of building the forecast. But maybe just a little bit more granularity on how you're thinking about sales productivity, pipeline discount rates? Anything that sort of like provide a little bit more color there?

明白了，明白了。黛比，我覺得很多人都在問我們這份指南的保守程度如何？我知道這主要取決於你今天是如何建立預測模型的。但能不能更詳細地說明一下你是如何考慮銷售效率、銷售通路折扣率的？或提供一些更具體的資訊？

Thanks, Matt. Look, I'd say that I don't have much to add versus what I've said already. The macro is broadly unchanged. Those leading indicators remain strong. Our business is going to grow faster in better environments and somewhat slower in worse environment. Our goal is to set ourselves up for success in fiscal '24 and for the long term.

謝謝，馬特。嗯，我覺得我沒什麼要補充的了，之前說的都差不多。宏觀經濟情勢基本上沒有變化，那些領先指標依然強勁。在環境好的時候，我們的業務成長會更快；在環境差的時候，成長速度會稍慢一些。我們的目標是為2024財年以及長遠發展做好準備。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Jason Celino。

Yes. So actually, one question on the quarter. So it sounds like there was -- well, I guess, did you see strength in the business at the end of January? I'm just trying to understand how business was after that multiyear discount went away at the beginning of the month.

是的。其實，關於本季我還有一個問題。聽起來好像——嗯，我想問的是，您在一月底是否看到了業務的強勁增長？我只是想了解一下，在月初那項持續多年的折扣政策結束後，業務情況如何。

Yes, the linearity of our business was not dissimilar to what we've seen in previous periods.

是的，我們業務的線性發展與我們之前幾個時期所看到的情況並無太大差異。

Perfect. And then on the free cash flow commentary you gave, the 30% to 35% margin. That was for 2026 period, the period of '23 to '26. And does that include the headwinds you talked about, including the FX, the cash taxes, et cetera?

好的。關於您提到的自由現金流，30%到35%的利潤率。那是針對2023年至2026年期間的預測。這個預測是否包含了您所提到的不利因素，例如匯率波動、現金稅等等？

So what I said was we have target planning parameters of 10% to 15% revenue growth and 30% to 35% free cash flow margins, all in pursuit of our goal of achieving a rule of 45-plus ratio over time. It's not time specific. If you look at our guidance for fiscal '24, that's at the trough of the transition for multiyear to annual billings, we'd be in the low 30s. And what we're saying is that we're going to go from the low 30s as we normalize over time towards our goal of achieving that 45% plus and that we intend to make meaningful progress against achieving that goal regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop.

我剛才說的是，我們的目標規劃參數是營收成長10%到15%，自由現金流利潤率30%到35%，所有這些都是為了最終實現45%以上的比率。這並非針對特定時間。如果你看一下我們對2024財年的業績指引，那正值多年期帳單向年度帳單過渡的低谷期，我們的比率大概在30%左右。我們想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們將逐步恢復正常，最終達到45%以上的目標，無論宏觀經濟環境如何，我們都將在實現這一目標方面取得實質進展。

Perfect. No, that's very helpful. And I guess we'll learn more at the Analyst Day in a couple of weeks.

太好了。這很有幫助。我想我們會在幾週後的分析師日上了解更多。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

It's [Sam Yellen] on for Steve Tusa. So in terms of the free cash flow bridge for next year, I know you guys have the deferred revenue and cash taxes. But is there anything else moving around maybe in working capital that we should considering to bridge?

山姆耶倫接替史蒂夫圖薩。關於明年的自由現金流，我知道你們有遞延收入和現金稅。但除了這些，在營運資金方面，還有什麼其他因素需要考慮來彌補資金缺口嗎？

If you look at -- yes, if you look at Slide 8 of the deck that we put on our website is the move from multiyear upfront annual billings is the lower cohort. We have a lower cohort of multiyear contracts that come up for renewal, just cyclically in fiscal '24. It's FX movements and it's cash taxes. Those are the 4 drivers of the decline.

是的，如果您看一下我們網站上發布的簡報的第8頁，您會發現多年期預付年費的模式正在逐漸被淘汰。我們在2024財年需要續約的多年期合約數量有所減少，這主要是由於匯率波動和現金稅收的影響。這四點是導致合約數量下降的主要原因。

And then in terms of the high single-digit revenue guidance for next year, how much of that is driven by price?

那麼，就明年接近兩位數的營收預期而言，其中有多少是由價格因素驅動的呢？

We're not going to get into that level of specificity, I would say. I mean, as I mentioned when Jay was asking the question earlier, we kind of look at it as our goal be to drive a mix of volume and price mix, partner margin type contributions to growth. And so you can loosely consider that, that would be how we're thinking about it as we look at growth next year, too.

我想說，我們不會深入探討那麼具體的細節。我的意思是，就像我之前在傑伊提問時提到的那樣，我們的目標是透過銷售、價格組合以及合作夥伴的利潤貢獻來推動成長。所以你可以大致理解為，這也是我們展望明年成長時的想法。

Our next question comes from the line of Sterling Auty of SVB MoffetNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 SVB MoffetNathanson 的 Sterling Auty。

Just one question from my side. Can you guys help me understand which end market segments, manufacturing versus architecture, et cetera, are you seeing the biggest cyclical impact today? And what did you factor in on those trends into the guidance?

我還有一個問題。你們能否幫我了解一下，目前哪些終端市場細分領域（例如製造業、建築業等）受到週期性的影響最大？你們在製定業績指引時又是如何考慮這些趨勢的呢？

Look, it's a hard question to answer because all of those segments are growing, all right? And the new business is growing in all those segments. So it's a nuanced question. One thing I will say is there's a different character of pushback from each one of those segments in terms of what they're seeing.

你看，這個問題很難回答，因為所有這些細分市場都在成長，對吧？而且所有這些細分市場的新業務都在成長。所以這是一個很微妙的問題。我想說的是，每個細分市場遇到的阻力都不一樣。

What we're seeing in manufacturing is my costs are going up, my costs are going up, my costs are going up, right? And that is impacting their ability to deliver, frankly, on some impacted demand because they can't pass it all to the customers. They have trouble kind of fulfilling the demand with the cost factor.

我們現在在製造業看到的是：成本一直在上漲，成本一直在上漲，成本一直在上漲，對吧？坦白說，這影響了他們滿足部分受影響需求的能力，因為他們無法將所有成本轉嫁給客戶。他們很難在成本因素的影響下滿足需求。

So I would say right now, the inflationary environment is putting more pressure on our manufacturing customers than it is on our ADC customers. So that's just one piece of color.

所以我覺得，目前通膨環境對我們的製造業客戶造成的壓力比對我們的ADC客戶更大。這只是其中一個面向。

In the AEC space, obviously, the material costs are a big issue for them. But they are continuing to struggle with labor shortages, capacity problems, the ability to kind of clear out the book of business, which is great because there's an overhang. There's an overhang of business for them right now, and there still is.

在建築、工程和施工（AEC）領域，材料成本顯然是他們面臨的一大難題。但他們仍在努力應對勞動力短缺、產能不足以及難以清理積壓訂單等問題，而這恰恰是件好事，因為目前存在大量待完成訂單。他們現在確實有很多待完成訂單，而且這種情況仍然存在。

And that's true in manufacturing, too. There's still an overhang of delivery that has to happen. I'm still waiting for a part from my repaired car and my car is burst, it has been months, can't get the part. All right. There's plenty of capacity challenges there as well.

製造業也是如此。仍然存在交付積壓的問題。我的車壞了，還在等一個零件，已經好幾個月了，零件還沒到。好吧。產能方面也面臨許多挑戰。

But in AEC, generally, there's still a backlog of book of business, labor shortages, capacity within some of these institute companies and construction firms, architecture firms, is getting in the way. So I hear capacity problems much more in the AEC segment which, by the way, is going to continue into time.

但就建築、工程和施工（AEC）產業而言，普遍存在訂單積壓、勞動力短缺、部分機構公司和建築公司產能不足等問題。因此，我常聽到AEC領域產能不足的抱怨，而且這種情況還會持續下去。

Eventually, the capacity will clear out. And I hear inflationary pressures much more from our manufacturing customers. M&A, they don't care, it's all digital anyway. People are watching more and they're happy.

最終，產能會釋放出來。而且我從製造業客戶聽到的通膨壓力也更多了。至於併購，他們不在乎，反正現在都是數位化的了。人們現在更關注市場動態，而且他們很滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Koenig of SMBC Nikko America.

我們的下一個問題來自SMBC Nikko America的Steve Koenig。

Great. I want to build just a little bit more on Sterling's question here. I'm wondering, can you remind us in AEC, if you look across upstream and downstream. What's your kind of complexion related to commercial versus industrial versus residential design and construction?

好的。我想就斯特林的問題再補充一點。我想請教一下，在建築、工程和施工（AEC）領域，從上游和下游的角度來看，您對商業、工業和住宅設計與施工的看法有何不同？

And then I'm really curious, given those interesting comments you just had, Andrew, about how you're seeing demand and capacity problems in that segment. What did you see in '08 when kind of the AEC activity slowed down? Was it more intense in one of those kind of subsegments? And how do you think about how that could unfold over time? Is that as those capacity just clear out, interest rates could begin to affect that sector broadly?

安德魯，鑑於你剛才關於該領域需求和產能問題的精彩評論，我很好奇，在2008年建築、工程和施工（AEC）活動放緩時，你觀察到了什麼？是否在某個細分領域中更為嚴重？你認為這種情況會如何發展？隨著產能的釋放，利率是否會對整個產業產生影響？

Yes. So that was it, that was a multilayered question. And now I have to remember the first part of the question, which was related to -- remind me about what your part A was?

是的。原來如此，這是一個多層次的問題。現在我得記住問題的第一部分，它跟著——提醒我一下，你的A部分是什麼？

Yes. Sorry, it was a little long winded. The complexion of your AEC.

是的。抱歉，我有點囉嗦了。您AEC的膚色。

Yes. Okay. So this is the -- always the question about which parts of the AEC ecosystem are we sensitive to? And here's the thing, and I always answer the question this way. The dollars always go somewhere, all right? So people were very concerned about 1.5 years ago, I was getting lots of questions about what's your exposure to commercial real estate, commercial real estate is going to slow down what happened in commercial real estate? It moved to retrofit and reconfigured, all right? And a lot of commercial real estate spend is in is going on in retrofit and reconfigure. A lot of architecture firms are completely involved in that. And also, it's moved to multifamily residential and things associated with that due to other pressures inside the economy and inside municipalities.

是的。好的。所以，這始終是個問題，那就是我們對AEC生態系中的哪些部分比較敏感？關鍵在於，我總是這樣回答這個問題：資金總是會流向某個地方，對吧？大約一年半前，人們非常擔心，我收到了很多關於你們在商業房地產領域的風險敞口的問題，商業房地產市場會放緩嗎？商業地產領域發生了什麼變化？它轉向了改造和重新配置，對吧？大量的商業房地產支出都用於改造和重新配置。許多建築事務所都完全參與其中。此外，由於經濟和市政內部的其他壓力，資金也轉向了多戶住宅及相關領域。

So the money shifts around all the time, right? And in terms of which segment is getting lit up. So we're not seeing any particular exposure in terms of slowdown to any particular segment because of the way this activity shifts, all right? And it's just one -- it's one of the interesting things about the ecosystem. There's always something that wasn't getting built or worked on -- that starts to get built or worked on when something else is out of the way, it's out of the queue, all right? And the commercial office space is somewhat out of the queue and other things are moving into the queue and getting more attention.

所以資金一直在流動，對吧？至於哪個領域更受關注，我們並沒有看到任何特定領域因為這種活動轉移而出現明顯的放緩，懂嗎？這只是生態系統的一個有趣之處。總是有一些原本沒有被開發或推進的項目，當其他項目被擱置、不再處於優先考慮狀態時，它們就會開始被開發或推進，明白嗎？商業辦公空間目前暫時處於優先考慮狀態，而其他項目則被提上日程，獲得更多關注。

Now with regards to '08, '08 was a very different type of situation. If you recall what we saw in '08 was a massive slowdown at the low end of our business. And as a matter of fact, it was a precipitous slowdown in the low end of our business with smaller firms not being able to get enough work. We don't see anything on the horizon that looks like that because of the backlog of business that's out there right now, there's just more people wanting to get things done than there is capacity to get the thing done in the ecosystem.

至於2008年，情況截然不同。如果你還記得，2008年我們業務的低端領域出現了大規模放緩。事實上，低端業務的放緩非常劇烈，小型公司根本無法獲得足夠的業務。鑑於目前積壓的業務量，我們預計未來不會出現類似的情況，只是想完成專案的人比生態系統中能夠完成專案的能力要多。

So it's a very different situation where there was a kind of like the valve just shut off. There was no backlog, which to bleed through. Now we're in a world where we've got a lot of project backlog, a lot of pent-up demand, and it's just not the same situation that you saw in '08. It was very different world. And we're a very different company.

所以情況截然不同，以前就像閥門突然關閉了一樣，沒有積壓訂單可以釋放。現在我們面臨大量專案積壓和大量潛在需求，這與2008年的情況完全不同。當時的世界截然不同，我們公司也發生了很大的變化。

That is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks. Sir?

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把會議交還給西蒙·梅斯-史密斯先生，請他作總結發言。先生？

Thanks, everyone. Sorry about that, having trouble finding my button. Looking forward to seeing you all the Investor Day in just in a month's time. If you have any questions, please e-mail me at simon@autodesk.com. Look forward to catching up again soon. Bye-bye.

謝謝大家。抱歉，我找不到按鈕。期待一個月後的投資人日與大家見面。如有任何疑問，請發送電子郵件至 simon@autodesk.com。期待很快能再次與大家交流。再見。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。