Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Autodesk's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加歐特克 2023 財年第四季度和全年業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Simon Mays-Smith。請繼續。

Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year fiscal '23 results. On the line with me are Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Debbie Clifford, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. You can find the earnings press release, slide presentation and transcript of today's opening commentary on our Investor Relations website following this call.

謝謝，接線員，下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們第四季度和全年的 23 財年業績。和我一起在線的是我們的首席執行官 Andrew Anagnost；和我們的首席財務官黛比·克利福德 (Debbie Clifford)。今天的電話會議通過網絡直播進行現場直播。此外，還可以在 autodesk.com/investor 上重播通話。電話會議結束後，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到收益新聞稿、幻燈片演示和今天開場評論的文字記錄。

During this call, we may make forward-looking statements about our outlook, future results and related assumptions, acquisitions, products and product capabilities and strategies. These statements reflect our best judgment based on currently known factors. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Forms 10-Q and 10-K and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements.

在此次電話會議中，我們可能會就我們的前景、未來結果和相關假設、收購、產品以及產品能力和戰略做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了我們基於當前已知因素的最佳判斷。實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最近的 10-Q 和 10-K 表格以及與今天的新聞稿一起提交的 8-K 表格，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的前瞻性結果不同的重要風險和其他因素 -尋找陳述。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

電話會議期間做出的前瞻性陳述截至今天。如果在今天之後重播或審查此電話，則電話中提供的信息可能不包含當前或準確的信息。 Autodesk 不承擔任何更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

During the call, we will quote several numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release, or Excel Financials and other supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.

在電話會議期間，我們將在討論我們的財務業績時引用幾個數字或增長變化。除非另有說明，否則每個此類參考均代表同比比較。今天電話會議中引用的所有非 GAAP 數字都在我們的新聞稿或 Excel Financials 和我們投資者關係網站上提供的其他補充材料中進行了核對。

And now I will turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我將把電話轉給安德魯。

Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Autodesk's strong financial and competitive performance in fiscal 2023, despite macroeconomic, policy, geopolitical and pandemic headwinds is a testament to 3 enduring strengths: resilience, opportunity and discipline. While we fell short of the fiscal '23 goals we set in 2016, our resilient business model and geographic product and customer diversification enabled us to deliver strong growth and report record fourth quarter and full year revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow. The sum of our revenue growth and free cash flow margin, a hallmark of the most valuable companies in the world was 55% for the year.

謝謝你，西蒙，歡迎大家來接聽電話。儘管面臨宏觀經濟、政策、地緣政治和流行病的逆風，歐特克在 2023 財年的強勁財務和競爭表現證明了 3 種持久的優勢：彈性、機會和紀律。雖然我們沒有達到我們在 2016 年設定的 23 財年目標，但我們富有彈性的商業模式以及地理產品和客戶多元化使我們能夠實現強勁增長，並報告創紀錄的第四季度和全年收入、GAAP 和非 GAAP 營業利潤率以及免費現金周轉。我們的收入增長和自由現金流利潤率的總和是 55%，這是全球最有價值公司的標誌。

As we deliver next-generation technology and services to our customers, the transformation within and between the industries we serve will accelerate, generating significant new growth opportunities for Autodesk. We started seeing the shift towards connected digital workflows in the cloud in product design and manufacturing, then in architecture followed by building engineering and more recently construction and we are now seeing growing momentum with owners.

隨著我們向客戶提供下一代技術和服務，我們所服務的行業內部和行業之間的轉型將加速，從而為 Autodesk 帶來重要的新增長機會。我們開始看到在產品設計和製造中向雲中連接的數字工作流轉變，然後是建築，然後是建築工程和最近的建築，我們現在看到業主的增長勢頭越來越大。

For example, in Q4, our partner, [BLA-BIM] Launch Alliance, was selected by a consortium of 20 U.S. states led by the Iowa Department of Transportation to facilitate the migration from legacy 2D project delivery processes to data-rich BIM delivery processes, which are more efficient and sustainable. In anticipation of this, the Departments of Transportation involved are also completely reimagining project delivery and developing open standards for all infrastructure projects.

例如，在第 4 季度，我們的合作夥伴 [BLA-BIM] Launch Alliance 被愛荷華州交通部牽頭的美國 20 個州聯盟選中，以促進從傳統 2D 項目交付流程到數據豐富的 BIM 交付流程的遷移，更高效和可持續。考慮到這一點，相關交通部門也在徹底重新構想項目交付並為所有基礎設施項目制定開放標準。

Together, these 20 states encompass more than 60% of the U.S. population. Over time, we expect more states and more owners across the globe to connect more workflows in the cloud.

這 20 個州加起來占美國人口的 60% 以上。隨著時間的推移，我們預計全球會有更多的州和更多的業主在雲端連接更多的工作流程。

Finally, our strategy is underpinned by disciplined and focused capital deployment through the economic cycle. This enables Autodesk to remain sufficiently well invested to realize significant benefits of its strategy while mitigating the risk of having to make expensive catch-up investments in the future.

最後，我們的戰略以經濟周期中有紀律和集中的資本部署為基礎。這使 Autodesk 能夠保持足夠的投資以實現其戰略的顯著收益，同時降低未來必須進行昂貴的追趕投資的風險。

Of course, discipline and focus mean not only consistent investment, but also constant optimization to ensure investment levels remain proportionate and directed at our largest opportunities. For example, Autodesk's BIM Collaborate Pro for Civil 3D, which enables much more efficient collaboration on civil infrastructure projects saw further significant enhancements in Q4.

當然，紀律和專注不僅意味著一致的投資，還意味著不斷優化，以確保投資水平保持相稱並針對我們最大的機會。例如，Autodesk 的 BIM Collaborate Pro for Civil 3D 可在民用基礎設施項目上實現更高效的協作，並在第四季度進一步顯著增強。

To support our work with public sector owners in the United States, Autodesk for government expects to achieve FedRAMP moderate authorization soon, meaning that through our partnership with the General Services Administration, customers will be able to start using our industry-leading cloud collaboration and document management tools that meet key security standards for U.S. government projects.

為了支持我們與美國公共部門所有者的合作，Autodesk for government 預計很快將獲得 FedRAMP 適度授權，這意味著通過我們與美國總務管理局的合作，客戶將能夠開始使用我們行業領先的雲協作和文檔符合美國政府項目關鍵安全標準的管理工具。

I'm also pleased to report that Innovyze had a record quarter driven by adoption in a growing proportion of our enterprise accounts, which contributed over $1 million in 4 deals. Infrastructure is but one part of an expanding opportunity for Autodesk. There are so many more, and we'll tell you about them at our Investor Day on March 22. But you can see some of the fruits of that opportunity already. we signed our largest ever EBA in the fourth quarter, encompassing more personas and connecting more workflows in the cloud to drive efficiency and sustainability.

我也很高興地報告，由於越來越多的企業客戶採用了 Innovyze，Innovyze 的季度業績創下紀錄，這些客戶在 4 筆交易中貢獻了超過 100 萬美元。基礎設施只是 Autodesk 不斷擴大的機會的一部分。還有更多，我們將在 3 月 22 日的投資者日告訴你。但你已經可以看到這個機會的一些成果。我們在第四季度簽署了有史以來規模最大的 EBA，包含更多角色並在雲中連接更多工作流程，以提高效率和可持續性。

I will now turn the call over to Debbie to take you through our quarterly financial performance and guidance for the year. I'll then come back to provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives.

我現在將電話轉給黛比，讓您了解我們的季度財務業績和年度指導。然後我會回來提供我們戰略增長計劃的最新情況。

Thanks, Andrew. Our fourth quarter and full year results were strong. Overall, the demand environment in Q4 remained consistent with Q3. The approaching transition from upfront to annual billings for multiyear contracts and a large renewal cohort provided a tailwind to billings and free cash flow.

謝謝，安德魯。我們的第四季度和全年業績強勁。總體而言，四季度的需求環境與三季度保持一致。多年期合同即將從預付到年度賬單的過渡以及大量續訂隊列為賬單和自由現金流提供了順風。

As Andrew mentioned, we continue to develop broader strategic partnerships with our customers and closed our largest deal to date during the quarter. The 9-digit deal is a multiyear commitment billed annually and did not have a meaningful impact on our financials during the quarter.

正如安德魯所說，我們繼續與客戶發展更廣泛的戰略合作夥伴關係，並在本季度完成了迄今為止最大的一筆交易。這筆 9 位數的交易是一項多年期承諾，每年結算一次，對我們本季度的財務狀況沒有產生重大影響。

Total revenue grew 9% as reported and 12% in constant currency, with subscription revenue growing by 11% as reported and 14% in constant currency. By product, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue grew 9% and AEC revenue grew 11%. Manufacturing revenue grew 4% but was up mid-teens, excluding foreign exchange movements and upfront revenue.

報告的總收入增長 9%，按固定匯率計算增長 12%，訂閱收入按報告增長 11%，按固定匯率計算增長 14%。按產品劃分，AutoCAD 和 AutoCAD LT 收入增長 9%，AEC 收入增長 11%。製造業收入增長 4%，但不包括外匯變動和前期收入，增長了 15% 左右。

M&E revenue was down 10%. Recall that in Q4 last year, M&E won its largest ever EBA, which included significant upfront revenue. Excluding upfront revenue, M&E grew 4%. Across the globe, revenue grew 13% in the Americas, 7% in EMEA and 4% in APAC. At constant exchange rates, EMEA and APAC grew 12% and 10%, respectively.

機電收入下降了 10%。回想一下去年第四季度，M&E 贏得了有史以來最大的 EBA，其中包括可觀的前期收入。剔除前期收入，M&E 增長了 4%。在全球範圍內，美洲收入增長 13%，歐洲、中東和非洲增長 7%，亞太地區增長 4%。按固定匯率計算，歐洲、中東和非洲地區和亞太地區分別增長 12% 和 10%。

Direct revenue increased 5% and represented 36% of total revenue. Strong underlying enterprise and e-commerce revenue growth was partly offset by foreign exchange movements and lower upfront revenue. Our product subscription renewal rates remain strong and our net revenue retention rate remains comfortably within our 100% to 110% target range at constant exchange rates.

直接收入增長 5%，佔總收入的 36%。強勁的基礎企業和電子商務收入增長部分被外匯變動和較低的前期收入所抵消。我們的產品訂閱續訂率保持強勁，我們的淨收入保留率以固定匯率輕鬆保持在我們 100% 至 110% 的目標範圍內。

Billings increased 28% to $2.1 billion, our first quarter over $2 billion, reflecting continued solid underlying demand and a tailwind from both our largest multiyear renewal cohort and the pending removal of the discount for multiyear contracts billed upfront.

比林斯增長 28% 至 21 億美元，我們的第一季度超過 20 億美元，反映出持續強勁的潛在需求以及我們最大的多年續約隊列和即將取消預付多年合同折扣的順風。

Total deferred revenue grew 21% to $4.6 billion. Total RPO of $5.6 billion and current RPO of $3.5 billion grew 19% and 12%, respectively. About 2 percentage points of that current RPO growth was from early renewals.

遞延收入總額增長 21% 至 46 億美元。總 RPO 為 56 億美元，當前 RPO 為 35 億美元，分別增長 19% 和 12%。當前 RPO 增長中約有 2 個百分點來自提前續約。

Turning to the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin remained broadly level at 92%. Non-GAAP operating margin increased by 1 percentage point to approximately 36% with ongoing cost discipline, partly offset by revenue growth headwinds from foreign exchange movements. For the fiscal year, non-GAAP operating margin increased by 4 percentage points reflecting strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline.

轉向損益表。非 GAAP 毛利率大致保持在 92% 的水平。非 GAAP 營業利潤率增加了 1 個百分點，達到約 36%，持續控製成本，部分被外匯變動帶來的收入增長逆風所抵消。本財年，非 GAAP 營業利潤率增長了 4 個百分點，反映出強勁的收入增長和持續的成本控制。

GAAP operating margin increased by 9 percentage points to approximately 21%. Recall, in Q4 last year, we took a lease related charge of approximately $100 million. That was part of our effort to reduce our real estate footprint and to further our hybrid workforce strategy. For the fiscal year, GAAP operating margin increased by 6 percentage points. We delivered record free cash flow in the quarter and for the full year of more than $900 million and $2 billion, respectively, reflecting our strong billings growth.

GAAP 營業利潤率增加了 9 個百分點，達到約 21%。回想一下，去年第四季度，我們收取了大約 1 億美元的租賃相關費用。這是我們減少房地產足跡和推進我們的混合勞動力戰略的努力的一部分。本財年，GAAP 營業利潤率增長了 6 個百分點。我們在本季度和全年實現了創紀錄的自由現金流，分別超過 9 億美元和 20 億美元，反映了我們強勁的賬單增長。

Turning to capital allocation. We continue to actively manage capital within our framework. As Andrew said, our strategy is underpinned by disciplined and focused capital deployment through the economic cycle. We will continue to offset dilution from our stock-based compensation program and to opportunistically accelerate repurchases when it makes sense.

轉向資本配置。我們繼續在我們的框架內積極管理資本。正如安德魯所說，我們的戰略以經濟周期中有紀律和集中的資本部署為基礎。我們將繼續抵消我們基於股票的補償計劃的稀釋，並在有意義的時候機會主義地加速回購。

During Q4, we purchased 1.1 million shares for $210 million at an average price of approximately $193 per share. For the full year, we purchased 5.5 million shares for $1.1 billion at an average price of approximately $198 per share and reduced total shares outstanding by 4 million. We retired a $350 million bond in December. Recall that we effectively refinanced this bond in October 2021 at historically low rates when we issued our first sustainability bond. Our average bond duration is now almost 7 years.

在第四季度，我們以每股約 193 美元的平均價格以 2.1 億美元的價格購買了 110 萬股股票。全年，我們以 11 億美元的價格以每股約 198 美元的平均價格購買了 550 萬股股票，並將已發行股票總數減少了 400 萬股。我們在 12 月收回了 3.5 億美元的債券。回想一下，我們在 2021 年 10 月發行了第一隻可持續發展債券時以歷史最低利率有效地為該債券進行了再融資。我們的平均債券久期現在接近 7 年。

Now let me turn to guidance. Our strong finish to fiscal '23 sets us up well for the year ahead. Overall, end market demand in Q4 fiscal '23 remained broadly consistent with Q3 fiscal '23. Channel partners remained cautiously optimistic, usage rates grew modestly, excluding Russia and China and bid activity on building connected remained robust.

現在讓我轉向指導。我們在 23 財年的強勁表現為我們來年做好了準備。總體而言，23 財年第四季度的終端市場需求與 23 財年第三季度大體一致。渠道合作夥伴保持謹慎樂觀，使用率溫和增長（不包括俄羅斯和中國），連接建築的投標活動依然強勁。

As we said last quarter, foreign exchange movements will be a headwind to revenue growth and margins in fiscal '24. We expect FX to be about a 4 percentage point drag on reported revenue. We continue to expect the absence of recognized deferred revenue from Russia will be about a 1 percentage point drag to revenue growth.

正如我們上個季度所說，外匯變動將成為 24 財年收入增長和利潤率的不利因素。我們預計外匯對報告收入的拖累約為 4 個百分點。我們繼續預計，俄羅斯沒有確認的遞延收入將拖累收入增長約 1 個百分點。

As we've highlighted before, most recently on our Q3 earnings call, the switch from upfront annual billings for most multiyear customers creates a significant headwind for free cash flow in fiscal '24 and a smaller headwind in fiscal '25.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，最近在我們的第三季度財報電話會議上，大多數多年期客戶從預付年度賬單的轉變對 24 財年的自由現金流造成了巨大的阻力，而在 25 財年的阻力較小。

You can see the impact on fiscal '24 in Slide 8 of our earnings deck. Change in deferred revenue increased fiscal '23 free cash flow by $790 million, but will reduce fiscal '24 free cash flow by approximately $300 million. The switch to annual billings for multiyear customers and a smaller multiyear renewal cohort are the key drivers of this $1.1 billion swing.

您可以在我們收益平台的幻燈片 8 中看到對 24 財年的影響。遞延收入的變化使 23 財年的自由現金流增加了 7.9 億美元，但將使 24 財年的自由現金流減少約 3 億美元。轉向多年期客戶的年度賬單和更小的多年期續訂群體是這一 11 億美元波動的主要驅動因素。

The transition will also affect the linearity of free cash flow during the year, with Q1 fiscal '24 free cash flow, benefiting from the strong billings in Q4 of fiscal '23 and our largest billings quarters in the second half of the year proportionately more impacted by the switch to annual billings.

這一轉變還將影響年內自由現金流的線性，24 財年第一季度的自由現金流受益於 23 財年第四季度的強勁賬單和我們下半年最大的賬單季度受到的影響更大通過切換到年度賬單。

While we expect many customers to switch to multiyear contracts billed annually, some may choose annual contracts instead. All else equal, if this were to occur, it would proportionately reduce the unbilled portion of our total remaining performance obligations and would negatively impact total RPO growth rates.

雖然我們預計許多客戶會改用按年計費的多年期合同，但有些人可能會選擇年度合同。在其他條件相同的情況下，如果發生這種情況，它將按比例減少我們剩餘履約義務總額中未開票的部分，並對總 RPO 增長率產生負面影響。

Deferred revenue, billings, current remaining performance obligations, revenue, margins and free cash flow would remain broadly unchanged in this scenario. Annual renewals create more opportunities for us to drive adoption and upsell but are without the price lock embedded in multiyear contracts. We'll keep you updated on this as the year progresses.

在這種情況下，遞延收入、賬單、當前剩餘履約義務、收入、利潤和自由現金流將基本保持不變。年度續約為我們創造了更多機會來推動採用和追加銷售，但沒有多年合同中嵌入的價格鎖定。隨著時間的推移，我們會及時通知您最新情況。

Our cash tax rate will return to a more normalized level of approximately 31% in fiscal '24, up from 25% in fiscal '23. We accrued significant tax assets as a result of the operating losses we generated during our business model transition. Growing profitability and more recently, rising effective tax rates across the globe, have accelerated the consumption of those tax attributes. Absent changes in tax policy, we expect our cash tax rate to remain in a range around 31% for the foreseeable future.

我們的現金稅率將從 23 財年的 25% 恢復到 24 財年的約 31% 的更正常水平。由於我們在業務模式轉型期間產生的經營虧損，我們積累了大量稅收資產。不斷增長的盈利能力以及最近全球有效稅率的上升，加速了這些稅收屬性的消耗。在稅收政策沒有變化的情況下，我們預計在可預見的未來，我們的現金稅率將保持在 31% 左右的範圍內。

Putting that all together, we expect fiscal '24 revenue to be between $5.36 billion and $5.46 billion, up about 8% at the midpoint or about 13% at constant exchange rates and excluding the impact from Russia. We expect non-GAAP operating margins to be similar to fiscal '23 levels with constant currency margin improvement offset by FX headwinds.

綜上所述，我們預計 24 財年收入將在 53.6 億美元至 54.6 億美元之間，中間值增長約 8%，按固定匯率計算增長約 13%，不包括來自俄羅斯的影響。我們預計非 GAAP 營業利潤率將與 23 財年的水平相似，貨幣利潤率的持續改善被外匯逆風所抵消。

We expect free cash flow to be between $1.15 billion and $1.25 billion. The midpoint of that range, $1.2 billion, implies a 41% reduction in free cash flow compared to fiscal '23. As I outlined earlier, the key drivers of that reduction are changes in long-term deferred revenue as a result of the shift to annual billings for multiyear customers, and a smaller multiyear renewal cohort, FX and our cash tax rate.

我們預計自由現金流將在 11.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間。該範圍的中點為 12 億美元，這意味著與 23 財年相比，自由現金流減少了 41%。正如我之前概述的那樣，這種減少的主要驅動因素是長期遞延收入的變化，這是由於多年客戶轉向年度賬單，以及較小的多年續訂隊列、外彙和我們的現金稅率。

The slide deck and Excel financials on our website have more details on fiscal '23 results and modeling assumptions for the full year of fiscal '24.

我們網站上的幻燈片和 Excel 財務報表提供了更多關於 23 財年結果和 24 財年全年建模假設的詳細信息。

At Investor Day, we'll be looking beyond this year. As Andrew noted earlier, we remain in the relatively early innings of a transformational shift to the cloud to drive efficiency and sustainability. This is generating demand for cloud-based platforms and services which breaks down the silos within and between the industries we serve. Autodesk is uniquely well positioned to seize these opportunities, and we will continue to invest with discipline and focus to realize that growth potential.

在投資者日，我們將展望今年以後。正如安德魯之前指出的那樣，我們仍處於向雲轉型以提高效率和可持續性的相對早期階段。這正在產生對基於雲的平台和服務的需求，從而打破我們所服務行業內部和之間的孤島。歐特克在抓住這些機會方面處於獨特的有利地位，我們將繼續有紀律和專注地進行投資，以實現這一增長潛力。

While our subscription business model and geographic product and customer diversification give us resilience when compared to many other companies, we're mindful that generational macroeconomic policy, geopolitical climate and health uncertainty make the world more volatile and less predictable than in the past. Our business will grow somewhat faster in less volatile environment and somewhat slower in more volatile environments.

與許多其他公司相比，雖然我們的訂閱業務模式以及地理產品和客戶多元化賦予我們彈性，但我們注意到世代宏觀經濟政策、地緣政治氣候和健康不確定性使世界比過去更加動盪和難以預測。我們的業務在波動較小的環境中會增長得更快，而在波動較大的環境中會稍微慢一些。

Finally, we're not just looking to have industry-leading growth, although we often do. Nor are we just looking to have industry-leading margins, although we often do. On average and over time, we are looking to have an industry-leading balance between growth and margins, and we often do. We think this balance between compounding growth and strong free cash flow margins captured in the Rule of 40 framework is the hallmark of the most valuable companies in the world, and we intend to remain one of them.

最後，我們不僅希望實現行業領先的增長，儘管我們經常這樣做。我們也不只是希望擁有行業領先的利潤率，儘管我們經常這樣做。平均而言，隨著時間的推移，我們希望在增長和利潤之間取得行業領先的平衡，而且我們經常這樣做。我們認為 40 法則框架中的複合增長和強勁的自由現金流利潤率之間的這種平衡是世界上最有價值公司的標誌，我們打算繼續成為其中之一。

With all this in mind, our target planning parameters over the next several years will be to grow revenue in the 10% to 15% range and generate free cash flow margins in the 30% to 35% range with the goal of reaching a Rule of 40 ratio of 45% or more over time. The path to that 45% ratio will not be linear given the drag in fiscal '24 and '25 to long-term deferred revenue and free cash flow from the shift to annual billings of multiyear contracts.

考慮到所有這些，我們未來幾年的目標規劃參數是將收入增長 10% 至 15%，並產生 30% 至 35% 的自由現金流利潤率，目標是達到40 比例超過 45% 或更多。考慮到 24 財年和 25 財年長期遞延收入和自由現金流從多年期合同轉向年度賬單的拖累，通往 45% 比率的道路將不是線性的。

The rate of improvement will obviously also be somewhat determined by the macroeconomic backdrop. But let me be clear, we're managing the business to this metric, and we feel it strikes the right balance between driving top line growth and delivering on disciplined profit and cash flow growth. We intend to make meaningful steps over time toward achievement of this Rule of 45 goal regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop.

改善的速度顯然也將在一定程度上取決於宏觀經濟背景。但讓我明確一點，我們正在根據這一指標管理業務，我們認為它在推動收入增長與實現有紀律的利潤和現金流增長之間取得了適當的平衡。無論宏觀經濟背景如何，我們都打算隨著時間的推移採取有意義的步驟來實現這一 45 條規則的目標。

While macroeconomic and FX headwinds, along with sustained but disciplined investments in our products and platforms will slow the rate of margin improvement, we continue to expect non-GAAP operating margins to be in the 38% to 40% range by fiscal '26, albeit more likely now in the lower half of that range. We continue to see scope for further margin growth thereafter. GAAP margins will further benefit from stock-based compensation as a percent of revenue trending down towards 10% and beyond over time.

雖然宏觀經濟和外匯逆風，以及對我們產品和平台的持續但有紀律的投資將減緩利潤率提高的速度，但我們繼續預計到 26 財年非 GAAP 營業利潤率將在 38% 至 40% 的範圍內，儘管現在更有可能處於該範圍的下半部分。我們繼續看到此後利潤率進一步增長的空間。 GAAP 利潤率將進一步受益於基於股票的薪酬，因為隨著時間的推移，股票薪酬佔收入的百分比將下降至 10% 甚至更高。

Andrew, back to you.

安德魯，回到你身邊。

Thank you, Debbie. Our strategy is to transform the industries we serve with end-to-end cloud-based solutions that drive efficiency and sustainability for our customers. We'll tell you more about our long-term vision and plans at our Investor Day on March 22, but let me finish by updating you on our progress in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，黛比。我們的戰略是通過端到端的基於雲的解決方案來改變我們所服務的行業，從而為我們的客戶提高效率和可持續性。我們將在 3 月 22 日的投資者日向您詳細介紹我們的長期願景和計劃，但最後讓我向您介紹我們在第四季度的進展情況。

We continue to see strong growth in AEC, fueled by customers consolidating on our solutions to connect previously siloed workflows in the cloud. Sweco, Europe's leading architecture and engineering consultancy is connecting our portfolio of products Spacemaker and Revit to audits Construction Cloud and Innovyze to streamline everything from transport and energy usage to lighting and water flows to ensure better transparency to the project life cycle.

我們繼續看到 AEC 的強勁增長，這得益於客戶整合我們的解決方案以連接雲中以前孤立的工作流程。歐洲領先的建築和工程諮詢公司 Sweco 正在將我們的產品組合 Spacemaker 和 Revit 與審計 Construction Cloud 和 Innovyze 聯繫起來，以簡化從運輸和能源使用到照明和水流的一切，以確保項目生命週期的透明度更高。

Sweco has a thriving sustainability practice. Its new digital service, Carbon Cost Compass, which is built on Autodesk Platform Services, helps its customers model and calculate the carbon footprint and cost of different types of buildings.

Sweco 擁有蓬勃發展的可持續發展實踐。其新的數字服務 Carbon Cost Compass 基於 Autodesk Platform Services 構建，可幫助其客戶建模和計算不同類型建築的碳足跡和成本。

For our construction customers, we continue to benefit from our complete end-to-end BIM solutions, which encompass design, preconstruction and field execution. In Q4, a mid-market general contractor in California, specializing in design-build projects chose to replace a competitive project management offering with Autodesk Build as it looked to improve integration further and minimize conflict with their design processes. While highlighting Build's cost management functionality as a differentiator, the customer ultimately chose Autodesk because of our longstanding and trusted partnership and shared vision on the future of construction.

對於我們的建築客戶，我們繼續受益於我們完整的端到端 BIM 解決方案，其中包括設計、預施工和現場執行。在第 4 季度，加利福尼亞一家專門從事設計-建造項目的中端市場總承包商選擇用 Autodesk Build 替換競爭性項目管理產品，因為它希望進一步改進集成並最大程度地減少與他們的設計流程的衝突。在突出 Build 的成本管理功能作為差異化因素的同時，客戶最終選擇了 Autodesk，因為我們長期和值得信賴的合作夥伴關係以及對建築未來的共同願景。

We continue to make excellent progress on our strategic initiatives, which is driving accelerating adoption of Autodesk Construction Cloud. We added almost 1,000 new logos again, drove continued rapid growth in Autodesk Builds MAUs and generated 3x quarter-on-quarter growth in our construction bundles, which combine multiple Autodesk Construction Cloud Solutions and enable customers to standardize more rapidly on one platform.

我們繼續在我們的戰略計劃方面取得出色進展，這正在推動加速採用 Autodesk Construction Cloud。我們再次添加了近 1,000 個新徽標，推動了 Autodesk Builds MAU 的持續快速增長，並在我們的構建包中實現了 3 倍的季度環比增長，它結合了多個 Autodesk Construction Cloud 解決方案，使客戶能夠在一個平台上更快地實現標準化。

Outside the U.S. enabling our international channel partners to sell our construction portfolio continues to drive strong growth. We still see strong growth potential in construction and Autodesk remains uniquely well positioned to capture it.

在美國以外，使我們的國際渠道合作夥伴能夠銷售我們的建築產品組合繼續推動強勁增長。我們仍然看到建築業的強勁增長潛力，而 Autodesk 仍然處於獨特的有利地位來抓住它。

In manufacturing, Tata Steel, one of the world's leading steel manufacturers has used our solutions to increase efficiency and reduce costs in setting up new operations to optimize effectively between its equipment, civil, structural and plant infrastructure teams. Tata Steel uses Autodesk's AEC and manufacturing collections and Vault. Through the integration of data from various vendors on a single platform, Tata Steel leverages simulation and class detection in a virtual environment, eliminating potential conflicts that can have a huge impact if they occur during physical installation.

在製造領域，世界領先的鋼鐵製造商之一塔塔鋼鐵公司使用我們的解決方案來提高效率並降低建立新業務的成本，以有效優化其設備、土木、結構和工廠基礎設施團隊。 Tata Steel 使用 Autodesk 的 AEC 和製造集合以及 Vault。通過在單一平台上集成來自不同供應商的數據，Tata Steel 在虛擬環境中利用模擬和類別檢測，消除了在物理安裝過程中可能產生巨大影響的潛在衝突。

In automotive, we continue to strengthen and expand our partnerships, both within and beyond the design studio as OEMs transform and connect factories. A leading manufacturer in the U.S. expanded its EBA in Q4, leveraging the cutting-edge visualization technology in VRED Pro to more effectively process executive design reviews and reach final designs more quickly. Autodesk is now partnering with the customer as it renovates its factories for its new fleet of electric vehicles, ensuring it controls the construction flow and owns its own data by standardizing on Autodesk Construction Cloud.

在汽車領域，隨著原始設備製造商改造和連接工廠，我們繼續加強和擴大我們在設計工作室內外的合作夥伴關係。美國一家領先的製造商在第四季度擴展了 EBA，利用 VRED Pro 中的尖端可視化技術更有效地處理執行設計審查並更快地完成最終設計。 Autodesk 現在正在與客戶合作，為新的電動汽車車隊翻新工廠，通過在 Autodesk Construction Cloud 上實現標準化，確保控制施工流程並擁有自己的數據。

Customers are also beginning to merge their design, manufacturing and production management workflows with Fusion and Prodsmart. In Q4, a manufacturer based in the U.K., which has more than doubled in size in the last 18 months switched from a competitor's CAD tool to Fusion 360 and extensions for its integrated CAD and CAM capabilities. With Prodsmart as part of its connected platform, the customer can instantly generate a bill of materials after creating a design and link directly to inventories, eliminating tedious work and saving time for higher-value opportunities.

客戶也開始將他們的設計、製造和生產管理工作流程與 Fusion 和 Prodsmart 合併。在第 4 季度，一家總部位於英國的製造商在過去 18 個月內將規模擴大了一倍多，從競爭對手的 CAD 工具轉向 Fusion 360 及其集成 CAD 和 CAM 功能的擴展。將 Prodsmart 作為其連接平台的一部分，客戶可以在創建設計後立即生成材料清單並直接鏈接到庫存，從而消除繁瑣的工作並節省時間以獲得更高價值的機會。

We ended the quarter with 223,000 Fusion 360 subscribers, a number which does not include extensions where units increased more than 100% year-over-year. During the quarter, we launched the Signal Integrity extension for Fusion powered by Ansys, which enables designers to analyze their PCB electromagnetic performance, ensure compliant products and power a faster development cycle at lower cost. We continue to see strength in PLM, signing our largest ever cloud data management deal and growing more than 30% in the quarter.

本季度末，我們擁有 223,000 名 Fusion 360 訂戶，這一數字不包括單位同比增長超過 100% 的擴展。本季度，我們推出了由 Ansys 提供支持的 Fusion 信號完整性擴展，使設計人員能夠分析其 PCB 電磁性能，確保產品合規，並以更低的成本加快開發週期。我們繼續看到 PLM 的實力，簽署了我們有史以來最大的雲數據管理交易，並在本季度增長了 30% 以上。

In education, leading universities continue to modernize their courses, ensuring students will learn the in-demand skills in the future. At North Columbia University, the prestigious design for industry's program students are now choosing to use Fusion 360 within their design process and across many of their modules along with real-world live projects led by industry partners. Their switch is primarily down to its ease of use and cross-platform availability. While our software remains free for educators and students Tomorrow's design leaders are bringing Fusion 360 to new and established manufacturers.

在教育方面，領先的大學繼續對其課程進行現代化改造，以確保學生在未來學習所需的技能。在北哥倫比亞大學，著名的工業設計專業學生現在選擇在他們的設計過程中使用 Fusion 360，並在許多模塊中使用 Fusion 360 以及由行業合作夥伴領導的真實項目。他們的轉變主要歸功於其易用性和跨平台可用性。雖然我們的軟件仍然對教育工作者和學生免費，但未來的設計領導者正在將 Fusion 360 帶給新老製造商。

We will continue to evolve our business model offerings to match customer needs and enable users to participate in our ecosystem more productively. For example, a European manufacturer which operates in over 100 countries and 6 R&D facilities worldwide transition to our named user model with premium plan providing enhanced security from single sign-on and approved efficiency from 24/7 technical support. Our partners at mentioned machine supported the transition with detailed knowledge and analysis of the customer's usage behavior resulting in an optimized flex token package for its occasional users, providing them with ongoing software access without acquiring a full-time subscription.

我們將繼續發展我們的商業模式產品以滿足客戶需求，並使用戶能夠更有效地參與我們的生態系統。例如，一家在 100 多個國家/地區運營並在全球擁有 6 個研發機構的歐洲製造商過渡到我們的指定用戶模型，其高級計劃通過單點登錄提供增強的安全性，並通過 24/7 技術支持提供經批准的效率。我們在上述機器上的合作夥伴通過對客戶使用行為的詳細了解和分析為過渡提供支持，從而為偶爾使用的用戶提供了優化的 flex 令牌包，為他們提供持續的軟件訪問權限，而無需獲得全職訂閱。

And finally, we continue to work with noncompliant users to find flexible and compliant solutions that ensure they have access to the most current and secure software. During the quarter, we closed 9 deals over $1 million and 23 deals over $500,000 with our license compliance initiatives. Returning to where I started, resilience, opportunity and discipline were important contributors to our fiscal '23 results and will remain the key drivers of our future success. We're excited to share our plans with you at our Investor Day on March 22.

最後，我們繼續與不合規的用戶合作，尋找靈活且合規的解決方案，確保他們能夠訪問最新和安全的軟件。本季度，我們通過許可合規舉措完成了 9 筆超過 100 萬美元的交易和 23 筆超過 500,000 美元的交易。回到我開始的地方，韌性、機會和紀律是我們 23 財年業績的重要貢獻者，並將繼續是我們未來成功的關鍵驅動力。我們很高興在 3 月 22 日的投資者日與您分享我們的計劃。

Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在想打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Saket Kalia。

Debbie, maybe for you. I was wondering if you could just give us a little bit more context about how you're thinking about fiscal '24 and beyond from a guidance perspective?

黛比，也許適合你。我想知道您是否可以從指導的角度向我們提供更多關於您如何考慮 24 財年及以後的背景信息？

Sure, Saket. So first, the overall demand environment in Q4 was relatively consistent with what we saw in Q3. If I drill first into the specifics on the guide; for billings, of course, we have multiyear to annual billings transition, that's creating a headwind as expected. The transition doesn't have an impact on revenue. It's just a change in billings frequency.

當然，Saket。所以首先，第四季度的整體需求環境與我們在第三季度看到的情況相對一致。如果我先深入了解指南中的細節；當然，對於帳單，我們有多年期到年度帳單的過渡，這正如預期的那樣造成了不利影響。過渡不會對收入產生影響。這只是計費頻率的變化。

On revenue, as we outlined last quarter, we're seeing a negative impact from FX and the Russia exit. Together, that represents 5 points of headwind to growth. If we normalize for that, the revenue growth range would be in the low teens.

正如我們上個季度概述的那樣，在收入方面，我們看到了外彙和俄羅斯退出的負面影響。總之，這代表了增長的 5 個阻力點。如果我們對此進行標準化，收入增長范圍將處於十幾歲以下。

On margin, we're managing the flat margins on an as-reported basis year-over-year. That's consistent with what we said on the last call. We have a strong balance sheet. We have conviction in our strategy. So we want to continue to invest during the cycle so that we can maintain our momentum, but not so much so that we see a detriment to our margin outlook.

在保證金方面，我們在報告的基礎上按年管理持平的利潤率。這與我們在上次電話會議上所說的一致。我們擁有強大的資產負債表。我們對我們的戰略充滿信心。因此，我們希望在周期內繼續投資，以保持我們的勢頭，但不要太多以至於我們看到對我們的利潤率前景不利。

And I want to point out that our margin guide on a constant currency basis represents improvement year-on-year.

我想指出，我們以固定貨幣為基礎的保證金指南代表了同比改善。

And then finally, on cash flow, the headwind to billings from the transition to annual billings has a downstream effect on cash flow, of course. As I mentioned in the opening commentary, the swing in long-term deferred revenue is having a negative impact of around $1.1 billion to $1.1 billion to fiscal '24 cash flow. That headwind is driven primarily by that switch to annual billings for multiyear customers.

最後，在現金流方面，從向年度賬單過渡到賬單的逆風當然會對現金流產生下游影響。正如我在開場評論中提到的，長期遞延收入的波動對 24 財年的現金流產生了大約 11 億至 11 億美元的負面影響。這種逆風主要是由多年客戶轉向年度賬單所推動的。

And if we take that with other factors like a lower multiyear renewal cohort and higher cash taxes, we get to that $1.2 billion guidance midpoint. Our goal is to set ourselves up for success in fiscal '24 and for the long term. And it's that same sort of thinking that's driving how we're thinking about the longer-term financial model.

如果我們將其與其他因素一起考慮，例如較低的多年更新隊列和較高的現金稅，我們將達到 12 億美元的指導中點。我們的目標是為在 24 財年和長期取得成功做好準備。正是這種想法推動了我們對長期財務模型的思考。

On revenue, our target planning range of 10% to 15%, it remains in that double-digit territory. On margin, we're targeting a margin in the 38% to 40% range in the fiscal '23 to '26 window. But we said that because of the macro and FX headwinds that we're seeing, we think it's more likely now that it's going to be in the lower half of that range.

在收入方面，我們的目標規劃範圍為 10% 至 15%，它仍保持在兩位數的範圍內。在利潤率方面，我們的目標是在 23 財年至 26 財年的窗口中實現 38% 至 40% 的利潤率。但我們說過，由於我們看到的宏觀和外匯逆風，我們認為現在它更有可能處於該範圍的下半部分。

And then on cash flow, we'll still work towards double-digit CAGR growth through fiscal '26, but it looks less likely though, given the impact of cash taxes, FX volatility and a stronger-than-expected fiscal '23 finish. As we look ahead, we're focused on managing the business to a Rule of 45 ratio or better, which after we get through this multiyear to annual billings transition, we think strikes the right balance between driving top line growth and delivering on disciplined profit and cash flow.

然後在現金流方面，我們仍將努力在 26 財年實現兩位數的複合年增長率，但考慮到現金稅、外匯波動和強於預期的 23 財年結束的影響，這看起來不太可能。展望未來，我們專注於將業務管理為 45 或更好的規則，在我們完成從多年到年度賬單的過渡之後，我們認為在推動收入增長和實現有紀律的利潤之間取得了適當的平衡和現金流。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. Maybe a follow-up for you, Debbie, if I may. I guess now that the fiscal 2024 has finally arrived, if you will. Could you just maybe walk through a little bit of detail just on that impact of switching from upfront to annual billings for those multiyear contracts?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，黛比，也許是你的後續行動。我想現在 2024 財年終於到來了，如果你願意的話。您能否詳細介紹一下將這些多年期合同從前期計費轉換為年度計費的影響？

Yes. It has finally arrived. It's nice to finally be having these conversations, Saket. So the transition to annual billings, the rollout is happening on schedule. Our systems will be ready. We're assuming that we sell multiyear upfront through March 27. And then at the March 28 go-live that we only sell multiyear with annual billing terms in mature countries for our platinum and gold partners. That represents a significant majority of the eligible population.

是的。它終於到了。很高興終於能進行這些對話，Saket。所以過渡到年度賬單，推出正在按計劃進行。我們的系統將準備就緒。我們假設我們在 3 月 27 日之前預先銷售多年期。然後在 3 月 28 日上線時，我們只在成熟國家為我們的白金和黃金合作夥伴銷售多年期和年度計費條款。這代表了符合條件的人口中的絕大多數。

There's going to be some remaining multiyear upfront in the forecast beyond March 27. That's going to be coming primarily from eStore in emerging countries, but it's relatively small in comparison to the volume that we saw in fiscal '23. And as we move those populations to annual billings, we'll see a follow-on headwind to free cash flow in fiscal '25. It's consistent with what I said in the opening commentary that the past is not going to be linear.

在 3 月 27 日之後的預測中，將有一些剩餘的多年預付款。這將主要來自新興國家的電子商店，但與我們在 23 財年看到的數量相比，它相對較小。當我們將這些人口轉移到年度賬單時，我們將看到 25 財年自由現金流的後續逆風。這與我在開場評論中所說的一致，過去不會是線性的。

We're assuming that the same proportion of our business that's been multiyear remains multiyear. We think that the price lock that you get in a multiyear contract will entice our customers to continue to buy multiyear, especially in the inflationary environment that we're in. But of course, it's possible that some of our customers choose annual contracts rather than multiyear contracts with annual billings. That wouldn't impact billings or most other financial metrics in fiscal '24, but it would negatively impact the total RPO growth rate.

我們假設多年業務的相同比例仍然是多年業務。我們認為您在多年合同中獲得的價格鎖定將吸引我們的客戶繼續購買多年合同，尤其是在我們所處的通貨膨脹環境中。但是當然，我們的一些客戶可能會選擇年度合同而不是具有年度賬單的多年期合同。這不會影響 24 財年的賬單或大多數其他財務指標，但會對總 RPO 增長率產生負面影響。

At the end of the day, it's a win-win for us. If our customers choose to go with annual contracts, it gives us an opportunity to engage with them upon renewal to drive adoption and upsell and our renewal rates are strong. So this is something we'll keep you posted on as the year progresses.

歸根結底，這對我們來說是雙贏的。如果我們的客戶選擇簽訂年度合同，我們就有機會在續籤時與他們互動，以推動採用和追加銷售，而且我們的續簽率很高。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會及時通知您。

Got it. Very clear. Looking forward to the Analyst Day, guys.

知道了。非常清楚。伙計們，期待分析師日。

Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

Andrew, let me start with you. Your 10-Q for the third quarter had some new and intriguing language with regard to how you foresee the evolution of your sales model, specifically, your relationship with VARs and VADs and there's a lot of complexities in the language there. So perhaps you could talk about how you envision the evolution of your business in terms of the operational or fulfillment or license management effects that you foresee over time or the margin effects over time. And where you think your sales mix ultimately goes over the next number of years in terms of direct versus indirect? Then a follow-up.

安德魯，讓我從你開始。你第三季度的 10-Q 有一些新的和有趣的語言，關於你如何預見你的銷售模式的演變，特別是你與 VAR 和 VAD 的關係，並且那裡的語言有很多複雜性。因此，也許您可以談談您如何根據您預見的運營或履行或許可管理影響或隨時間推移的利潤率影響來設想您的業務發展。您認為您的銷售組合最終會在接下來的幾年中在直接還是間接方面走向何方？然後是跟進。

Okay. Great. So I like the way you highlighted. This is an evolution. We've been evolving in a particular direction over time. Obviously, several years back, I talked about the 50-50 mix of direct and indirect and we've been driving a lot of growth in direct channels. We've been driving a lot of growth in direct enterprise business, and all of these things kind of like weave together into a longer-term plan.

好的。偉大的。所以我喜歡你強調的方式。這是一種進化。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在朝著特定的方向發展。顯然，幾年前，我談到了 50-50 的直接和間接混合，我們一直在推動直接渠道的大量增長。我們一直在推動直接企業業務的大量增長，所有這些事情有點像編織成一個長期計劃。

And now what you're seeing is doing is we're driving a lot more direct engagement with some of our value-added resellers. So some of the changes that you saw in there are [pre-seed] staging more and more direct engagement with our value-added resellers and less smaller engagements and fewer engagements between intermediates and our value-added resellers, which makes total sense between the systems evolutions we've been executing on in the direction we're going.

現在你看到的是我們正在推動與我們的一些增值經銷商進行更直接的接觸。因此，您在其中看到的一些變化是 [pre-seed] 越來越多地與我們的增值經銷商直接接觸，越來越少的中間商和我們的增值經銷商之間的小型接觸和接觸，這在我們一直在朝著我們前進的方向執行的系統演進。

So long term, we're still driving towards that same type of balance that we've been talking about. But as our systems improve, we're looking for different types of engagement models with our value-added reseller channel.

從長遠來看，我們仍在朝著我們一直在談論的那種平衡方向努力。但隨著我們系統的改進，我們正在通過我們的增值經銷商渠道尋找不同類型的參與模型。

Okay. Second question, the slide deck gives us the annual update on your installed base of subscription. The net increase was about $600,000 for the year, net of trade-ins. Looking ahead, how does your long-term growth model foresee the contribution of volume growth and particularly the effect as well of improving the richness of the mix, perhaps to more collections and so forth? And perhaps by end market. When you think about manufacturing, that volume looks like it's maybe 10th of your net new volume per year. So you have a lot of volume that has to come from other segments outside of manufacturing. So perhaps you could talk about that.

好的。第二個問題，幻燈片向我們提供了您的訂閱安裝基礎的年度更新。扣除以舊換新後，當年的淨增長約為 600,000 美元。展望未來，您的長期增長模型如何預測銷量增長的貢獻，尤其是提高產品組合豐富性的效果，也許是為了更多的收藏等等？也許是終端市場。當你考慮製造業時，這個數量看起來可能是你每年淨新數量的十分之一。所以你有很多數量必須來自製造業以外的其他部門。所以也許你可以談談這個。

Sure, I'll take that one, Jay. So we start at the top. Yes, subscriptions grew in a healthy way. I just want to remind, however, that there's a lot of variability in that metric, given that we have such a wide diversity of business models in play, things like Flex, EBAs, account-based pricing and so on and so forth. So it does make it less and less of a relevant metric for us to manage business performance.

當然，我會拿那個，傑伊。所以我們從頂部開始。是的，訂閱量以健康的方式增長。然而，我只是想提醒一下，考慮到我們有如此廣泛的商業模式，比如 Flex、EBA、基於賬戶的定價等等，該指標存在很多可變性。因此，它確實越來越不成為我們管理業務績效的相關指標。

We're more focused on new and renewal ACV. They both posted solid growth in Q4. As we think about new ACV. That's the proxy for, I think, the spirit of your question. We generated across both volume and also stronger unit economics, things like price mix and partner margins. In general, historically, we've seen it come from roughly equally across those sources, and it kind of flexes up or down depending on the demand environment that we're in.

我們更專注於新的和更新的 ACV。他們都在第四季度實現了穩健增長。當我們考慮新的 ACV 時。我認為，這代表了你的問題的精神。我們產生了數量和更強大的單位經濟效益，比如價格組合和合作夥伴利潤率。總的來說，從歷史上看，我們已經看到它來自這些來源大致相同，並且它會根據我們所處的需求環境而上下浮動。

We could see some puts and takes like when COVID hit, we saw more growth from volume because -- volume versus price because we were more sensitive to price increases at the time that the pandemic hit. And then obviously, when we're in a situation where we change prices at all, we might see more growth coming from price.

我們可以看到一些看跌期權，比如當 COVID 來襲時，我們看到了更多的成交量增長，因為——成交量與價格相比，因為我們在大流行病襲來時對價格上漲更加敏感。然後很明顯，當我們處於完全改變價格的情況下時，我們可能會看到更多的增長來自價格。

But all in all, as we think about achieving some of the long-term growth parameters that I talked about, we're thinking about it as a roughly equal split across volume, price mix ASP over time.

但總而言之，當我們考慮實現我談到的一些長期增長參數時，我們將其視為隨著時間的推移在數量、價格組合 ASP 之間大致相等的分配。

Andrew, did you want to comment little bit on the segment?

安德魯，你想對這個片段發表一些評論嗎？

Thanks. Jay, your comment on statements, all right? As you know, and I know you're aware, as we look at the various segments you do business in, we're moving in a situation where we're getting deeply entrenched in both the design and make side of our customers' business. So we also pay attention to the fact that even within manufacturing and AEC and all these things, we're going to be adding a lot more subscribers in some of the downstream processes in other parts of the process, which is going to be an important engine even within some of the segments that you discussed. And I know you're aware of that. I just wanted to reinforce it a little bit.

謝謝。傑伊，你對聲明的評論，好嗎？正如你所知，我知道你知道，當我們審視你們開展業務的各個領域時，我們正處於這樣一種情況，即我們在客戶業務的設計和製造方面都根深蒂固.所以我們也注意到這樣一個事實，即使在製造和 AEC 以及所有這些事情中，我們也會在流程的其他部分的一些下游流程中添加更多的訂閱者，這將是一個重要的引擎甚至在您討論的某些細分市場中。我知道你知道這一點。我只是想稍微加強一下。

Our next question comes on the line of Adam Borg of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Adam Borg。

Maybe Andrew, on Innovyze, it was interesting to hear and great to hear about the record quarter. We picked up some growing traction in our check. I'd love to hear a little bit more about what's driving this and where we are in the migration more broadly to subscription, given it's more legacy business model? And then I have a follow-up.

也許安德魯，在 Innovyze 上，聽到創紀錄的季度很有趣，也很高興。我們在支票中獲得了越來越多的關注。我很想听聽更多關於是什麼推動了這一點，以及我們在更廣泛地遷移到訂閱方面的進展，因為它是更傳統的商業模式？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So it's very early in the migration. But in general, Innovyze, we had a record quarter all right? And the biggest thing that was driving some of that record growth is that now Innovyze can be incorporated into a lot of our enterprise business agreements and in some of our engagement with our largest accounts. And guess what, there's a hunger for the solution. So there's a lot more direct engagement with customers around Innovyze that's really propelling the growth right now.

是的。所以這是遷移的早期階段。但總的來說，Innovyze，我們有一個創紀錄的季度好嗎？推動這種創紀錄增長的最大因素是，現在 Innovyze 可以納入我們的許多企業業務協議以及我們與最大客戶的一些合作中。你猜怎麼著，人們渴望找到解決方案。因此，圍繞 Innovyze 與客戶進行了更多直接接觸，這確實推動了目前的增長。

We're still very much in the early stages of activating our channel. So we've activated our major accounts team, and we're still working to activate our channel. And the subscription transition, super early stages just starting, and that we'll give you updates on that as time goes on.

我們仍處於激活頻道的早期階段。所以我們已經激活了我們的主要客戶團隊，我們仍在努力激活我們的渠道。訂閱過渡，超級早期階段才剛剛開始，我們會隨著時間的推移為您提供更新。

Maybe just a quick follow-up on the macro. You guys are clear that things seem to be consistent quarter-over-quarter. I'd love to maybe just try go down one step deeper. Any observations around customers switching more to point solutions from collections or anything around RT or perhaps even more interest in Flex given the macro?

也許只是對宏的快速跟進。你們很清楚，每個季度的情況似乎都是一致的。我很樂意嘗試更深入一步。關於客戶更多地從集合或圍繞 RT 的任何東西轉向點解決方案的任何觀察，或者在給出宏的情況下可能對 Flex 更感興趣？

Yes. So actually, there's pretty consistent customer behavior across segments and sizes of customers. So there's not any kind of switching behavior or downgrading behavior. And Flex tends to be to a large measure, and it's very early days with Flex, tends to be incremental to our business rather than detrimental to our business. So in general, we're not seeing any kind of changes in mix as things go on. I will say, from a segment perspective, while all the segments grew, our larger customers grew faster than our smaller ones, but everybody was growing.

是的。所以實際上，跨細分市場和客戶規模的客戶行為非常一致。所以不存在任何類型的切換行為或降級行為。 Flex 往往會在很大程度上，而且 Flex 還處於早期階段，往往會增加我們的業務，而不是損害我們的業務。所以總的來說，隨著事情的進展，我們沒有看到任何形式的變化。我要說的是，從細分市場的角度來看，雖然所有細分市場都在增長，但我們的大客戶比小客戶增長得更快，但每個人都在增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink of RW Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 RW Baird 的 Joe Vruwink。

I wanted to go back and give more detail on what you're doing with the public sector around project delivery. And I guess I'm curious how this compares to the evolution of the commercial side of your business. So maybe the analogy I will use, I think, BIM 360 launched in 2012, and we got Construction Cloud in 2019 and here we are today is what you're announcing now or kind of the conversations you're having in the public space with owners. Is it closer to 2012? Or is it kind of farther along and has the potential to progress more quickly?

我想回過頭來更詳細地說明您在公共部門圍繞項目交付所做的工作。而且我想我很好奇這與您業務的商業方面的發展相比如何。所以也許我會使用的類比，我想，BIM 360 於 2012 年推出，我們在 2019 年獲得了 Construction Cloud，今天我們在這裡宣布的是您現在宣布的內容或您在公共場所進行的對話擁有者。離2012年更近了嗎？還是它走得更遠，有可能進步得更快？

Joe, I think that's a very astute question, right? And I think you're pointing to some of the important things about what we're doing with public sector in general. You probably noticed in the opening commentary, our comments about FedRAMP things associated with that. All of these things, FedRAMP, our engagement with the infrastructure partner and DOTs that I talked about in the opening communicator, all of these are part and parcel of laying the groundwork for more and more modernization inside of these department of transportation and larger owners in terms of infrastructure; federal owners, European owners as well.

喬，我認為這是一個非常精明的問題，對吧？而且我認為你指的是我們在公共部門所做的一些重要事情。您可能在開場評論中註意到，我們對與此相關的 FedRAMP 事物的評論。所有這些事情，FedRAMP，我們與基礎設施合作夥伴的合作以及我在開場白中談到的 DOT，所有這些都是為這些交通部門和更大的業主內部越來越多的現代化奠定基礎的重要組成部分基礎設施條款；聯邦所有者，歐洲所有者也是如此。

All of that will continue to build out in a way very similar to what you described in terms of entering into construction. It's a longer-term play, right? It does -- it will take time. So it's still early innings in all of these things. But you can see increasing activity, BIM specifications coming out more and more within the Department of Transportation community and a desire to modernize the stacks.

所有這些都將繼續以與您在進入建設時所描述的方式非常相似的方式構建。這是一個長期的遊戲，對吧？確實如此——這需要時間。所以所有這些事情都還處於早期階段。但您可以看到越來越多的活動、BIM 規範在交通部社區內越來越多地出現，並且希望對堆棧進行現代化改造。

And that's a big push right now. A lot of these DOTs, they're stuck in a different era of software and solutions, and they're looking to modernize and this isn't just true in the U.S. It's also true in Europe. We're engaging in more and more discussions with countries in the European Union about some of the BIM standards they're trying to drive into their infrastructure projects. And that's going to have a compounding effect on how people want to engage with different kinds of solutions in the infrastructure space, but still early journey.

現在這是一個很大的推動力。很多這樣的 DOT，他們被困在一個不同的軟件和解決方案時代，他們正在尋求現代化，這不僅在美國是這樣，在歐洲也是如此。我們正在與歐盟國家進行越來越多的討論，討論他們試圖在基礎設施項目中採用的一些 BIM 標準。這將對人們希望如何在基礎設施領域使用不同類型的解決方案產生復合影響，但仍處於早期階段。

Yes, great. That's helpful. And then -- just on the 10% to 15% growth parameter, I guess, as I think about the backdrop in fiscal 2024, I wouldn't label it as easy. And yet the guidance, I think, calls for something closer to 12% organic. So I guess the question is what happens incrementally in kind of a planning scenario relative to a challenging backdrop in 2024, where 10% type growth becomes a plausible outcome?

對，很好。這很有幫助。然後——就 10% 到 15% 的增長參數而言，我想，當我考慮 2024 財年的背景時，我不會將其標記為容易。然而，我認為，該指南要求接近 12% 的有機食品。所以我想問題是，相對於 2024 年充滿挑戰的背景，10% 的類型增長成為可能的結果，在某種規劃場景中會逐漸發生什麼？

Yes. So look, first off, let's comment about how resilient our business is and how we demonstrate that resilience over the last few years. We believe we've put everything in the right kind of scope, and we've aligned things pretty carefully. If we saw an environment where we saw downward pressure on our margin expectations for the year, have levers within the company that we can pull that has nothing to do with layoffs or any of the things you're seeing in the rest of the tech sector that we could pull to ensure that we hit those targets. So we feel pretty confident about what we've laid out and how we could hit it even if there were changes in the economic environment.

是的。因此，首先，讓我們評論一下我們的業務有多大的彈性，以及我們在過去幾年中如何展示這種彈性。我們相信我們已經將一切都放在了正確的範圍內，並且我們已經非常仔細地調整了一切。如果我們發現今年的利潤率預期面臨下行壓力的環境，我們可以在公司內部採取與裁員或您在其他科技行業看到的任何事情無關的槓桿我們可以拉動以確保我們達到這些目標。因此，即使經濟環境發生變化，我們對我們的佈局以及我們如何實現它充滿信心。

Debbie, do you want to add some commentary?

黛比，你想添加一些評論嗎？

Yes, sure. A couple of things I would say. First, overall, I mean, we're watching the macro backdrop closely, and I said that it was broadly unchanged. Europe was a bit better. U.S., a bit worse. Asia, about the same. So overall, on the whole, the demand environment was broadly similar. We've reflected all of that into our guidance. The leading indicators remain strong.

是的，當然。我想說幾件事。首先，總體而言，我的意思是，我們正在密切關注宏觀背景，我說的是大體上沒有變化。歐洲好一點。美國，差一點。亞洲，差不多。因此，總的來說，需求環境大致相似。我們已將所有這些反映到我們的指南中。領先指標依然強勁。

And another way to think about it would be that if you look at revenue, the implied growth rate in Q4 of our fiscal '23 is 9%. If you extend that into fiscal '24, add another point of currency headwind, you're squarely at the guidance midpoint for fiscal '24. So we're kind of already at that rate. And we feel comfortable with the guidance that we've set.

另一種思考方式是，如果您查看收入，我們 23 財年第四季度的隱含增長率為 9%。如果將其擴展到 24 財年，再加上另一個貨幣逆風點，您就正好位於 24 財年的指導中點。所以我們已經達到了那個速度。我們對我們設定的指導感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Funk of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Funk。

Yes. A couple if I could. So first, the noncompliant transition during the quarter was greater than we expected, a very strong rate. Just curious to kind of change in push versus pull strategy there? And then how additive growth that might be in fiscal '24 and beyond?

是的。如果可以的話一對夫婦。因此，首先，本季度的不合規過渡比我們預期的要多，這是一個非常強勁的比率。只是好奇那裡的推與拉策略的變化？那麼在 24 財年及以後可能會有怎樣的附加增長？

Yes. So there's no change in our approach to noncompliance, right? As I've said in many times, and I want to keep reinforcing, we continue to develop efficiencies. We continue to be able to identify to higher precision, who is actually noncompliant and who actually isn't and we're building up a steady base of business as we move forward. But we're not looking to accelerate it or push it harder or drive it in any particular direction. We're just allowing it to be kind of a steady incremental growth engine within our business and kind of continue to deliver it year after year after year.

是的。所以我們對不合規的處理方式沒有改變，對吧？正如我多次說過的，我想繼續加強，我們繼續提高效率。我們繼續能夠以更高的精度識別，誰實際上不合規，誰實際上不合規，並且隨著我們前進，我們正在建立穩定的業務基礎。但我們並不打算加速它或更努力地推動它或推動它朝任何特定方向發展。我們只是讓它成為我們業務中穩定的增量增長引擎，並年復一年地繼續交付它。

And that will continue to be our strategy. One, we think it's the right thing to do for the company, the right thing to do for our customers. It gives our customers time to get themselves compliant because just the fact that we're out there engaged in compliance activity encourages people to ask themselves if they should be compliant, so there's other business levers here. And the more carefully we do this and the more incrementally we do this, the better the outcome is for the entire ecosystem. So no real change in how we're approaching that.

這將繼續是我們的戰略。第一，我們認為這對公司來說是正確的，對我們的客戶來說也是正確的。它讓我們的客戶有時間讓自己合規，因為我們在那裡從事合規活動這一事實鼓勵人們問自己是否應該合規，所以這裡還有其他業務槓桿。我們做得越仔細，做得越增量，整個生態系統的結果就越好。所以我們處理這個問題的方式沒有真正的改變。

And then Debbie, you mentioned that the inflationary environment might affect how customers think about the shift for multiyear to annual. Just curious if the rising rate environment affects how you think about that shift from upfront payment for multiyear to annual bill. Does it change the math for you?

然後黛比，你提到通貨膨脹環境可能會影響客戶對多年期到年度轉變的看法。只是好奇利率上升的環境是否會影響您如何看待從多年預付款到年度賬單的轉變。它會改變你的數學嗎？

It doesn't in any meaningful way, as I said. It's really a win-win for us because with annual contracts, we get an opportunity to engage with our customers upon renewal to drive upsell and make sure that there is adoption. Obviously, with a price lock and our customers signing on the multiyear contracts, we have a 100% renewal rate in any given period, but there's less of that opportunity to engage. So from our standpoint, it's a win-win.

正如我所說，它沒有任何意義。這對我們來說真的是雙贏，因為通過年度合同，我們有機會在續約時與客戶互動，以推動追加銷售並確保採用。顯然，在價格鎖定和我們的客戶簽署多年合同的情況下，我們在任何特定時期都有 100% 的續約率，但參與的機會較少。所以從我們的角度來看，這是雙贏的。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Hedberg of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Matt Hedberg。

Andrew, kind of a high-level one for you. You guys have been focused on generative design for a while now. And with all the news on AI recently, I'm wondering if you can kind of give us your perspective on how Autodesk plans to leverage AI and sort of the impact on design?

安德魯，對你來說有點高級。你們關註生成式設計已有一段時間了。最近關於 AI 的所有新聞，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您對 Autodesk 計劃如何利用 AI 以及對設計的影響的看法？

Yes. So ChatGPT has obviously given a massive amount of validation to the potential of AI. It is a particular horizontal solution, and we intend to leverage that horizontal solution in some of our solutions. In fact, you're probably aware that Microsoft and Satya Nadela himself demoed a natural language processing tool for generating [mindscripts for both direct mind, for bypass] and it works fabulously, right? These are things that provide real leverage to our customers.

是的。所以 ChatGPT 顯然已經對 AI 的潛力給予了大量的驗證。這是一個特殊的橫向解決方案，我們打算在我們的一些解決方案中利用該橫向解決方案。事實上，您可能知道 Microsoft 和 Satya Nadela 自己演示了一種自然語言處理工具，用於生成 [用於直接思維和繞過思維的思維腳本]，而且效果非常好，對吧？這些是為我們的客戶提供真正影響力的東西。

However, one of the things I really want you to be aware of, Matt, is that the real vertical value comes when we start training on data that is directly used by our customers to do particular things or design or build something. And that comes at the user productivity level, the company productivity level and the ecosystem productivity level.

然而，馬特，我真正想讓你知道的一件事是，當我們開始對客戶直接用於做特定事情或設計或建造某些東西的數據進行培訓時，真正的垂直價值就會出現。這涉及用戶生產力水平、公司生產力水平和生態系統生產力水平。

And that's going to unlock a lot of potential as we develop things that cut across all of what our customers can do like generative design, by the way, but probably heading in even other directions.

這將釋放出很多潛力，因為我們開發的東西可以跨越我們的客戶可以做的所有事情，比如生成設計，順便說一句，但可能會朝著其他方向發展。

And that's going to take time to develop. It's going to take opportunities for us to engage with customers in terms of using some of their data. But I want you to pay attention to that long-term horizon on doing real training on customer data, which will be where the revolution comes from.

這需要時間來發展。我們將有機會在使用客戶的一些數據方面與客戶互動。但我希望你注意對客戶數據進行真正培訓的長期視野，這將是革命的源泉。

Got it. Got it. And then Debbie, sort of the question that I think a lot us are getting on from folks is the levels of conservatism in the guide? And I'm sure it's based on what you see today is how you're sort of building the forecast. But maybe just a little bit more granularity on how you're thinking about sales productivity, pipeline discount rates? Anything that sort of like provide a little bit more color there?

知道了。知道了。然後黛比，我認為我們從人們那裡得到的很多問題是指南中的保守主義水平？而且我敢肯定，這是基於您今天所看到的構建預測的方式。但也許您對銷售生產力、渠道折扣率的看法更細化一些？有什麼類似的東西在那裡提供了更多的顏色嗎？

Thanks, Matt. Look, I'd say that I don't have much to add versus what I've said already. The macro is broadly unchanged. Those leading indicators remain strong. Our business is going to grow faster in better environments and somewhat slower in worse environment. Our goal is to set ourselves up for success in fiscal '24 and for the long term.

謝謝，馬特。聽著，我想說的是，與我已經說過的相比，我沒有什麼要補充的。宏觀基本沒有變化。這些領先指標依然強勁。我們的業務在更好的環境中會增長得更快，而在更差的環境中會稍微慢一些。我們的目標是為在 24 財年和長期取得成功做好準備。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Jason Celino。

Yes. So actually, one question on the quarter. So it sounds like there was -- well, I guess, did you see strength in the business at the end of January? I'm just trying to understand how business was after that multiyear discount went away at the beginning of the month.

是的。所以實際上，這個季度有一個問題。所以聽起來好像有——嗯，我想，你在 1 月底看到了業務的實力嗎？我只是想了解在本月初取消多年折扣後的業務情況。

Yes, the linearity of our business was not dissimilar to what we've seen in previous periods.

是的，我們業務的線性與我們在前幾個時期所看到的沒有什麼不同。

Perfect. And then on the free cash flow commentary you gave, the 30% to 35% margin. That was for 2026 period, the period of '23 to '26. And does that include the headwinds you talked about, including the FX, the cash taxes, et cetera?

完美的。然後在你給出的自由現金流評論中，30% 到 35% 的利潤率。那是在 2026 年期間，即 23 年到 26 年期間。這是否包括您談到的不利因素，包括外匯、現金稅等？

So what I said was we have target planning parameters of 10% to 15% revenue growth and 30% to 35% free cash flow margins, all in pursuit of our goal of achieving a rule of 45-plus ratio over time. It's not time specific. If you look at our guidance for fiscal '24, that's at the trough of the transition for multiyear to annual billings, we'd be in the low 30s. And what we're saying is that we're going to go from the low 30s as we normalize over time towards our goal of achieving that 45% plus and that we intend to make meaningful progress against achieving that goal regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop.

所以我說的是我們的目標規劃參數是 10% 到 15% 的收入增長和 30% 到 35% 的自由現金流利潤率，所有這些都是為了實現我們隨著時間的推移實現 45 以上比率的目標。這不是特定的時間。如果您查看我們對 24 財年的指導，那是多年期向年度賬單過渡的低谷，我們將處於 30 年代的低谷。我們要說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們將從 30 多歲的低點走向實現 45% 以上的目標，並且無論宏觀經濟背景如何，我們都打算在實現這一目標方面取得有意義的進展。

Perfect. No, that's very helpful. And I guess we'll learn more at the Analyst Day in a couple of weeks.

完美的。不，這非常有幫助。我想我們將在幾週後的分析師日了解更多信息。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

It's [Sam Yellen] on for Steve Tusa. So in terms of the free cash flow bridge for next year, I know you guys have the deferred revenue and cash taxes. But is there anything else moving around maybe in working capital that we should considering to bridge?

這是 [Sam Yellen] 為 Steve Tusa 做的。因此，就明年的自由現金流橋而言，我知道你們有遞延收入和現金稅。但是，我們應該考慮彌合的營運資金中是否還有其他任何變化？

If you look at -- yes, if you look at Slide 8 of the deck that we put on our website is the move from multiyear upfront annual billings is the lower cohort. We have a lower cohort of multiyear contracts that come up for renewal, just cyclically in fiscal '24. It's FX movements and it's cash taxes. Those are the 4 drivers of the decline.

如果你看 - 是的，如果你看我們放在我們網站上的幻燈片 8 是從多年前期年度賬單的轉變是較低的隊列。我們有較少的多年期合同需要續簽，只是在 24 財年周期性地進行。這是外匯變動和現金稅。這些是下降的 4 個驅動因素。

And then in terms of the high single-digit revenue guidance for next year, how much of that is driven by price?

然後就明年的高個位數收入指導而言，其中有多少是由價格驅動的？

We're not going to get into that level of specificity, I would say. I mean, as I mentioned when Jay was asking the question earlier, we kind of look at it as our goal be to drive a mix of volume and price mix, partner margin type contributions to growth. And so you can loosely consider that, that would be how we're thinking about it as we look at growth next year, too.

我會說，我們不會進入那種程度的特異性。我的意思是，正如我在 Jay 之前提出這個問題時提到的那樣，我們將其視為我們的目標是推動數量和價格的混合，合作夥伴利潤類型對增長的貢獻。所以你可以粗略地考慮一下，這也是我們在考慮明年的增長時考慮的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Sterling Auty of SVB MoffetNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 SVB MoffetNathanson 的 Sterling Auty。

Just one question from my side. Can you guys help me understand which end market segments, manufacturing versus architecture, et cetera, are you seeing the biggest cyclical impact today? And what did you factor in on those trends into the guidance?

我這邊只有一個問題。你們能幫我了解哪些終端細分市場，製造與建築等，您今天看到的周期性影響最大嗎？您將這些趨勢納入指南的哪些因素？

Look, it's a hard question to answer because all of those segments are growing, all right? And the new business is growing in all those segments. So it's a nuanced question. One thing I will say is there's a different character of pushback from each one of those segments in terms of what they're seeing.

看，這是一個很難回答的問題，因為所有這些細分市場都在增長，好嗎？新業務在所有這些領域都在增長。所以這是一個微妙的問題。我要說的一件事是，就他們所看到的內容而言，這些細分市場中的每一個都有不同的回擊特徵。

What we're seeing in manufacturing is my costs are going up, my costs are going up, my costs are going up, right? And that is impacting their ability to deliver, frankly, on some impacted demand because they can't pass it all to the customers. They have trouble kind of fulfilling the demand with the cost factor.

我們在製造業看到的是我的成本在上升，我的成本在上升，我的成本在上升，對吧？坦率地說，這影響了他們滿足某些受影響需求的能力，因為他們無法將其全部傳遞給客戶。他們在滿足成本因素的需求方面遇到了麻煩。

So I would say right now, the inflationary environment is putting more pressure on our manufacturing customers than it is on our ADC customers. So that's just one piece of color.

所以我現在要說的是，通貨膨脹環境給我們的製造業客戶帶來的壓力比給我們的 ADC 客戶帶來的壓力更大。所以這只是一種顏色。

In the AEC space, obviously, the material costs are a big issue for them. But they are continuing to struggle with labor shortages, capacity problems, the ability to kind of clear out the book of business, which is great because there's an overhang. There's an overhang of business for them right now, and there still is.

顯然，在 AEC 領域，材料成本對他們來說是一個大問題。但他們仍在與勞動力短缺、產能問題、清理業務賬簿的能力作鬥爭，這很好，因為有懸而未決的問題。他們現在有大量的業務，現在仍然如此。

And that's true in manufacturing, too. There's still an overhang of delivery that has to happen. I'm still waiting for a part from my repaired car and my car is burst, it has been months, can't get the part. All right. There's plenty of capacity challenges there as well.

製造業也是如此。仍然有一個必鬚髮生的交付過剩。我還在等我修好的車的零件，我的車爆了，已經幾個月了，拿不到零件。好的。那裡也有很多容量挑戰。

But in AEC, generally, there's still a backlog of book of business, labor shortages, capacity within some of these institute companies and construction firms, architecture firms, is getting in the way. So I hear capacity problems much more in the AEC segment which, by the way, is going to continue into time.

但在 AEC 中，一般來說，仍然存在積壓的業務簿、勞動力短缺、一些研究所公司和建築公司、建築公司的產能正在阻礙。所以我在 AEC 部分聽到更多的容量問題，順便說一句，這將持續到時間。

Eventually, the capacity will clear out. And I hear inflationary pressures much more from our manufacturing customers. M&A, they don't care, it's all digital anyway. People are watching more and they're happy.

最終，容量將被清除。我從我們的製造業客戶那裡聽到了更多的通貨膨脹壓力。併購，他們不在乎，反正都是數字化的。人們正在觀看更多，他們很高興。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Koenig of SMBC Nikko America.

我們的下一個問題來自 SMBC Nikko America 的 Steve Koenig。

Great. I want to build just a little bit more on Sterling's question here. I'm wondering, can you remind us in AEC, if you look across upstream and downstream. What's your kind of complexion related to commercial versus industrial versus residential design and construction?

偉大的。我想在這裡對 Sterling 的問題做更多的闡述。我想知道，如果您縱觀上游和下游，能否在 AEC 中提醒我們。您對商業、工業和住宅設計和施工的看法如何？

And then I'm really curious, given those interesting comments you just had, Andrew, about how you're seeing demand and capacity problems in that segment. What did you see in '08 when kind of the AEC activity slowed down? Was it more intense in one of those kind of subsegments? And how do you think about how that could unfold over time? Is that as those capacity just clear out, interest rates could begin to affect that sector broadly?

然後我真的很好奇，考慮到你剛才的那些有趣的評論，安德魯，關於你如何看待該領域的需求和容量問題。當 AEC 活動放緩時，您在 08 年看到了什麼？在其中一種細分市場中它是否更激烈？你如何看待隨著時間的推移會如何發展？是否隨著這些產能的清理，利率可能開始廣泛影響該行業？

Yes. So that was it, that was a multilayered question. And now I have to remember the first part of the question, which was related to -- remind me about what your part A was?

是的。就是這樣，這是一個多層次的問題。現在我必須記住問題的第一部分，這與 - 提醒我你的 A 部分是什麼？

Yes. Sorry, it was a little long winded. The complexion of your AEC.

是的。抱歉，有點囉嗦了。 AEC 的膚色。

Yes. Okay. So this is the -- always the question about which parts of the AEC ecosystem are we sensitive to? And here's the thing, and I always answer the question this way. The dollars always go somewhere, all right? So people were very concerned about 1.5 years ago, I was getting lots of questions about what's your exposure to commercial real estate, commercial real estate is going to slow down what happened in commercial real estate? It moved to retrofit and reconfigured, all right? And a lot of commercial real estate spend is in is going on in retrofit and reconfigure. A lot of architecture firms are completely involved in that. And also, it's moved to multifamily residential and things associated with that due to other pressures inside the economy and inside municipalities.

是的。好的。所以這就是 - 始終是關於我們對 AEC 生態系統的哪些部分敏感的問題？事情就是這樣，我總是這樣回答問題。美元總是流向某個地方，好嗎？所以人們非常關心 1.5 年前，我收到了很多關於你對商業房地產的風險敞口的問題，商業房地產會減緩商業房地產發生的事情嗎？它進行了改造和重新配置，好嗎？很多商業房地產支出都在進行改造和重新配置。許多建築公司完全參與其中。而且，由於經濟和市政當局內部的其他壓力，它已轉移到多戶住宅和與之相關的事物。

So the money shifts around all the time, right? And in terms of which segment is getting lit up. So we're not seeing any particular exposure in terms of slowdown to any particular segment because of the way this activity shifts, all right? And it's just one -- it's one of the interesting things about the ecosystem. There's always something that wasn't getting built or worked on -- that starts to get built or worked on when something else is out of the way, it's out of the queue, all right? And the commercial office space is somewhat out of the queue and other things are moving into the queue and getting more attention.

所以錢一直在轉移，對吧？就哪個部分被點亮而言。因此，由於這種活動的變化方式，我們沒有看到任何特定細分市場在放緩方面有任何特別的風險，好嗎？這只是一個——這是生態系統中有趣的事情之一。總是有一些東西沒有被建造或處理——當其他東西不在路上時，它就開始被建造或處理，它不在隊列中，好嗎？而商業辦公空間則有些出隊，其他的東西都在進隊，越來越受關注。

Now with regards to '08, '08 was a very different type of situation. If you recall what we saw in '08 was a massive slowdown at the low end of our business. And as a matter of fact, it was a precipitous slowdown in the low end of our business with smaller firms not being able to get enough work. We don't see anything on the horizon that looks like that because of the backlog of business that's out there right now, there's just more people wanting to get things done than there is capacity to get the thing done in the ecosystem.

現在關於 08 年，08 年是一種非常不同的情況。如果您還記得我們在 08 年看到的情況，那就是我們低端業務的大幅放緩。事實上，我們業務的低端業務急劇放緩，小公司無法獲得足夠的工作。由於目前存在積壓的業務，我們在地平線上看不到任何看起來像這樣的東西，只是想要完成事情的人多於生態系統中完成事情的能力。

So it's a very different situation where there was a kind of like the valve just shut off. There was no backlog, which to bleed through. Now we're in a world where we've got a lot of project backlog, a lot of pent-up demand, and it's just not the same situation that you saw in '08. It was very different world. And we're a very different company.

所以這是一個非常不同的情況，就像閥門剛剛關閉一樣。沒有積壓，需要流血。現在我們處在一個有很多項目積壓的世界，很多被壓抑的需求，這與你在 08 年看到的情況不同。這是一個非常不同的世界。我們是一家非常不同的公司。

That is all the time we have for Q&A today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Simon Mays-Smith for closing remarks. Sir?

這就是我們今天的問答時間。我現在想把會議轉回 Simon Mays-Smith 作閉幕詞。先生？

Thanks, everyone. Sorry about that, having trouble finding my button. Looking forward to seeing you all the Investor Day in just in a month's time. If you have any questions, please e-mail me at simon@autodesk.com. Look forward to catching up again soon. Bye-bye.

感謝大家。抱歉，找不到我的按鈕。期待在一個月後的投資者日見到你。如果您有任何問題，請發送電子郵件至 simon@autodesk.com。期待很快再次趕上。再見。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。