Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Autodesk Q3 Fiscal '23 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加 Autodesk 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作說明)。提醒您,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now turn the conference over to your host Mr. Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁西蒙·梅斯-史密斯先生。請開始吧。

  • Simon Mays-Smith - VP of IR

    Simon Mays-Smith - VP of IR

  • Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the third quarter results of our fiscal '23. On the line with me are Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Debbie Clifford, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. You can find the earnings press release, slide presentation and transcript of today's opening commentary on our Investor Relations website following this call.

    謝謝接線員,下午好。感謝您參加我們關於2023財年第三季業績的電話會議。與我一同參加會議的有我們的執行長Andrew Anagnost和財務長Debbie Clifford。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播。此外,您也可以在autodesk.com/investor上收聽會議錄音。會議結束後,您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到收益新聞稿、幻燈片簡報以及今天開場白的文字記錄。

  • During this call, we may make forward-looking statements about our outlook, future results and related assumptions, acquisitions, products and product capabilities and strategies. These statements reflect our best judgment based on currently known factors. Actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings including our most recent Form 10-Q and the Form 8-K filed with today's press release for important risk factors and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

    在本次電話會議中,我們可能會就我們的展望、未來業績及相關假設、收購、產品及產品功能和策略做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了我們基於當前已知因素的最佳判斷。實際事件或結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件,包括我們最新的 10-Q 表格和隨今日新聞稿提交的 8-K 表格,以了解可能導致我們實際業績與前瞻性陳述存在差異的重要風險因素和其他因素。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述僅代表截至今日的資訊。如果在今日之後重播或回顧本次電話會議,會議中提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。 Autodesk 不承擔更新或修訂任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • During the call, we will quote several numerical growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. All non-GAAP numbers referenced in today's call are reconciled in our press release, or XL Financials and other supplemental materials available on our Investor Relations website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將引用若干成長數據來討論我們的財務表現。除非另有說明,所有引用的數據均指同比數據。本次電話會議中提及的所有非GAAP財務數據均已在我們的新聞稿、XL Financials財務報表以及投資者關係網站上的其他補充資料中進行了核對。

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

    現在我把電話交給安德魯。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Simon, and welcome, everyone, to the call. We again reported record third quarter revenue, non-GAAP operating margin and free cash flow. Encouragingly, the business is performing as we'd expect given secular growth tailwinds and macroeconomic, geopolitical policy and COVID-19-related headwinds. Subscription renewal rates remain resilient. Our competitive performance remains strong. Outside of Russia and China, new business growth slightly decelerated in the quarter, most notably in Europe, but overall growth remains good. And we see less demand for multiyear upfront and more demand for annual contracts than we expected. We're hopeful this is a positive signal for our transition next year to annual billings for multiyear contracts.

    謝謝Simon,也歡迎各位參加本次電話會議。我們再次公佈了第三季創紀錄的營收、非GAAP營業利潤率和自由現金流。令人鼓舞的是,在長期成長利好因素以及宏觀經濟、地緣政治政策和新冠疫情相關不利因素的影響下,公司業務表現符合預期。訂閱續訂率依然堅挺。我們的競爭優勢依然強勁。除俄羅斯和中國以外,本季新業務成長略有放緩,尤其是在歐洲,但整體成長依然良好。我們發現,市場對多年期預付款的需求低於預期,而對年度合約的需求高於預期。我們希望這能為我們明年過渡到多年期合約的年度結算模式發出正面訊號。

  • Overall, our leading indicators are consistent with these trends. Channel partners remain optimistic, but with hints of caution. Usage rates continue to grow modestly in the U.S. and APAC, excluding China, but are flat in Europe, excluding Russia. And bid activity on BuildingConnected remains robust as the industry continues to work through its backlog. We are reinforcing the secular tailwinds to our business by accelerating the convergence of workflows within and between the industries we serve, creating broader and deeper partnerships with existing customers and bringing new customers into our ecosystem.

    整體而言,我們的領先指標與這些趨勢相符。通路夥伴保持樂觀,但也略帶謹慎。美國和亞太地區(不包括中國)的使用率持續溫和成長,而歐洲(不包括俄羅斯)的使用率則持平。隨著業界持續推進積壓訂單,BuildingConnected 上的競價活動依然強勁。我們正透過加速我們所服務產業內部及產業間的工作流程整合、與現有客戶建立更廣泛更深入的合作關係以及吸引新客戶加入我們的生態系統,來鞏固業務的長期發展趨勢。

  • Our strategy is underpinned by disciplined and focused investments through the economic cycle, which enables Autodesk to remain well invested to realize the significant benefits of its strategy while mitigating the risk of having to make expensive catch-up investments later. In September, we hosted more than 10,000 customers and partners at Autodesk University. There was incredible energy, excitement and optimism for being together in person for the first time in 3 years. There was also palpable momentum behind the digital transformation of the industries we serve. At AU, we announced Fusion, Forma and Flow, our 3 industry clouds, which will connect data, teams and workflows in the cloud on our trusted platform. By increasing our engineering velocity, moving data from files to the cloud and expanding our third-party ecosystem, they will enable Autodesk to further increase customer value by delivering even greater efficiency and sustainability.

    我們的策略以貫穿整個經濟週期的嚴謹而專注的投資為基礎,這使得歐特克能夠保持充足的投資,從而實現戰略的顯著效益,同時降低日後進行昂貴追趕性投資的風險。 9 月,我們在歐特克大學 (Autodesk University) 舉辦了盛會,吸引了超過 10,000 名客戶和合作夥伴。這是三年來大家首次線下相聚,現場氣氛熱烈,充滿活力與樂觀。我們所服務的產業的數位轉型也展現出強勁的勢頭。在歐特克大學,我們發布了 Fusion、Forma 和 Flow 這三大產業雲端平台,它們將透過我們值得信賴的平台,在雲端連接數據、團隊和工作流程。透過提升工程效率、將資料從文件遷移到雲端以及擴展第三方生態系統,歐特克將能夠透過提供更高的效率和永續性,進一步提升客戶價值。

  • I will now turn the call over to Debbie to take you through our third quarter financial performance and guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. I'll then come back to provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives.

    現在我將把電話交給黛比,由她為大家介紹我們第三季的財務表現以及對第四季和全年的展望。之後我會回來報告我們的策略成長計劃的最新進展。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Andrew. In a more challenging macroeconomic environment, Autodesk performed in line with our expectations in the third quarter, excluding the impact of in-quarter currency movements on revenue. Resilient subscription renewal rates, healthy new business growth and a strong competitive performance were partly offset by geopolitical, macroeconomic, policy and COVID-19-related headwinds, foreign exchange movements and less demand for multiyear upfront and more demand for annual contracts than we expected.

    謝謝安德魯。在更具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境下,Autodesk 第三季的業績符合預期,不計入季度內匯率波動對營收的影響。穩健的訂閱續約率、健康的新業務成長以及強勁的市場競爭力,部分被地緣政治、宏觀經濟、政策和新冠疫情相關的不利因素、匯率波動以及多年期預付款需求低於預期、年度合約需求高於預期所抵消。

  • Total revenue grew 14% and 15% at constant exchange rates. By product, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue grew 10%. AEC and manufacturing revenue both grew 13% and M&E revenue grew 24%, partly driven by upfront revenue growth. By region, revenue grew 17% in the Americas, 10% in EMEA and 14% in APAC. At constant exchange rates, EMEA and APAC grew 12% and 18%, respectively. By channel, direct revenue increased 14%, representing 35% of total revenue, while indirect revenue grew 13%.

    以固定匯率計算,總營收成長14%和15%。按產品劃分,AutoCAD和AutoCAD LT的營收成長10%。 AEC和製造業收入均成長13%,M&E營收成長24%,部分原因是預付款收入成長。按地區劃分,美洲收入成長17%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA)成長10%,亞太地區(APAC)成長14%。以固定匯率計算,EMEA和APAC分別成長12%和18%。按通路劃分,直接收入成長14%,佔總收入的35%,而間接收入成長13%。

  • Our product subscription renewal rates remain strong, and our net revenue retention rate was comfortably within our 100% to 110% target range. Billings increased 16% to $1.4 billion, reflecting continued solid underlying demand, partly offset by foreign exchange movements and a shift in mix from multiyear upfront to annual contracts versus expectations. Total deferred revenue grew 13% to $3.8 billion. Total RPO of $4.7 billion and current RPO of $3.1 billion grew 11% and 9%, respectively. At constant exchange rates, RPO and current RPO grew approximately 15% and 13%, respectively.

    我們的產品訂閱續訂率依然強勁,淨收入留存率輕鬆達到100%至110%的目標區間。帳單金額成長16%至14億美元,反映出持續穩健的潛在需求,但部分被匯率波動以及合約結構從多年預付合約轉向年度合約(與預期不符)所抵銷。遞延收入總額成長13%至38億美元。總RPO為47億美元,目前RPO為31億美元,分別成長11%和9%。以固定匯率計算,RPO和目前RPO分別成長約15%和13%。

  • Turning to the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin remained broadly level at 93%, while non-GAAP operating margin increased by 4 percentage points to approximately 36%, reflecting strong revenue growth and ongoing cost discipline. GAAP operating margin increased by 3 percentage points to approximately 20%. We delivered robust third quarter free cash flow of $460 million, up 79% year-over-year reflecting strong revenue growth, margin improvement and a larger multiyear upfront billing cohort.

    接下來來看損益表。非GAAP毛利率基本上維持在93%的水平,而非GAAP營業利潤率則成長了4個百分點,達到約36%,這反映了強勁的收入成長和持續的成本控制。 GAAP營業利潤率成長了3個百分點,達到約20%。我們實現了強勁的第三季自由現金流,達到4.6億美元,年增79%,這反映了強勁的收入成長、利潤率的提升以及多年期預付款項的增加。

  • Turning to capital allocation. We continue to actively manage capital within our framework. As Andrew said, our organic and inorganic investments will remain disciplined and focused through the economic cycle. We will continue to offset dilution from our stock-based compensation program and to accelerate repurchases opportunistically when it makes sense to do so. Year-to-date, we purchased 4.4 million shares for $873 million at an average price of approximately $200 per share, which compared to last year contributed to a reduction in our diluted weighted average shares outstanding by approximately 5 million to 217 million shares. We also announced today that the Board has authorized a further $5 billion for share repurchases.

    關於資本配置,我們將繼續在既定框架內積極管理資本。正如安德魯所說,我們將在整個經濟週期中保持穩健的有機成長和無機成長投資策略。我們將繼續抵消股權激勵計劃帶來的稀釋效應,並在時機成熟時加快股票回購。今年迄今,我們以每股約200美元的平均價格回購了440萬股股票,總額達8.73億美元。與去年相比,這使我們的稀釋後加權平均流通股數量減少了約500萬股,降至2.17億股。我們今天也宣布,董事會已批准追加50億美元用於股票回購。

  • And in December, we plan to retire a $350 million bond when it comes due. Recall that we effectively refinanced this bond last October at historically low rates when we issued our first sustainability bond. And related to that new sustainability bond, we published our first sustainability bond impact report about a month ago, which updates our progress. You can find the report on our Investor Relations website.

    我們計劃在12月償還到期的3.5億美元債券。請注意,去年10月我們發行了首支永續發展債券,並以歷史低利率對這支債券進行了有效的再融資。此外,大約一個月前,我們發布了首份永續發展債券影響報告,更新了我們在該債券項目上的最新進展。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到這份報告。

  • Now let me finish with guidance. Andrew gave you a readout on the business and our markets at the beginning of the call. Our renewal business continues to be a highlight, reflecting the ongoing importance of our software in helping our customers achieve their goals. New business growth continues to be relatively stronger in North America with growth in EMEA and APAC outside of Russia and China, slightly decelerating, but overall growth remains good. And we've seen less demand for multiyear upfront and more demand for annual contracts than we expected. As we look ahead and as we've done in the past, our Q4 and fiscal '23 guidance assumes that market conditions remain consistent with what we saw as we exited Q3. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar during the quarter generated slight incremental FX headwinds, reducing full year billings and revenue by approximately $10 million and $5 million, respectively, for the remainder of fiscal '23.

    現在讓我以一些指導性意見作為結尾。在電話會議開始時,Andrew 已經向大家介紹了公司業務和市場狀況。續約業務依然是亮點,這體現了我們的軟體在幫助客戶實現目標方面持續發揮重要作用。北美地區的新業務成長依然相對強勁,歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及除俄羅斯和中國以外的亞太地區的成長略有放緩,但整體成長仍然良好。我們發現,客戶對多年期預付款的需求低於預期,而對年度合約的需求則高於預期。展望未來,正如我們以往的做法,我們對第四季和2023財年的業績指引是基於市場狀況與第三季末保持一致的假設。本季美元走強帶來了輕微的匯率波動不利影響,導致2023財年剩餘時間的全年帳單和收入分別減少了約1000萬美元和500萬美元。

  • Bringing these factors together, the overall headline is that our fiscal '23 revenue, margin and earnings per share guidance remained close to the previous midpoint at constant exchange rates and comfortably within our previous guidance ranges. Our lower fiscal '23 billings and free cash flow guidance primarily reflects less demand for multiyear upfront and more demand for annual contracts than we expected. We're narrowing the fiscal '23 revenue range to be between $4.99 billion and $5.005 billion. We continue to expect non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 36%. And we expect free cash flow to be between $1.9 billion and $1.98 billion. The slide deck and updated Excel financials on our website have more details on modeling assumptions for the full year of fiscal '23.

    綜合以上因素,整體而言,我們2023財年的營收、利潤率和每股盈餘預期在固定匯率下與先前預期的中位數基本一致,並保持在先前的預期範圍內。我們下調2023財年的帳單金額和自由現金流預期,主要反映出多年期預付款的需求低於預期,而年度合約的需求高於預期。我們將2023財年的營收預期範圍縮減至49.9億美元至50.05億美元之間。我們仍預期非GAAP營業利潤率約為36%。我們預計自由現金流將在19億美元至19.8億美元之間。我們網站上的簡報和更新後的Excel財務報表提供了更多關於2023財年全年模型假設的詳細資訊。

  • The challenges our customers face continue to evolve that reinforce the need for digital transformation, which gives us confidence in our long-term growth potential. We continue to target double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP operating margins in the 38% to 40% range and double-digit free cash flow growth on a compound annual basis. These metrics are intended to provide a floor to our long-term revenue growth ambitions and a ceiling to our spend growth expectations.

    客戶面臨的挑戰不斷演變,更凸顯了數位轉型的必要性,也讓我們對自身的長期成長潛力充滿信心。我們將繼續致力於實現兩位數的營收成長、38%至40%的非GAAP營業利潤率以及兩位數的複合年自由現金流成長。這些指標旨在為我們的長期營收成長目標設定底線,並為我們的支出成長預期設定上限。

  • Andrew, back to you.

    安德魯,把鏡頭交給你了。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Debbie. Our strategy is to transform the industries we serve with end-to-end cloud-based solutions that drive efficiency and sustainability for our customers. Fusion, Forma and Flow connect data, teams and workflows in the cloud on our trusted platform, making Autodesk rapidly scalable and extensible into adjacent verticals from architectural and engineering to construction and operations, from product engineering to product data management and product manufacturing. Our platform is also scalable and extensible between verticals with industrialized construction and into new workflows like XR. By accelerating the convergence of workflows within and between the industries we serve, we are also creating broader and deeper partnerships with existing customers and bringing new customers into our ecosystem.

    謝謝黛比。我們的策略是透過端到端的雲端解決方案,為客戶提升效率和永續性,從而變革我們所服務的產業。 Fusion、Forma 和 Flow 在我們值得信賴的平台上連接雲端的資料、團隊和工作流程,使 Autodesk 能夠快速擴展並應用於相鄰的垂直領域,從建築和工程到施工和運營,從產品工程到產品資料管理和產品製造。我們的平台還具有跨垂直領域的擴展性,可應用於工業化建築以及 XR 等新型工作流程。透過加速我們所服務產業內部及產業間的工作流程整合,我們也正在與現有客戶建立更廣泛、更深入的合作關係,並將新客戶引入我們的生態系統。

  • In AEC, our customers continue to digitally transform their workflows to win new business and become more efficient and sustainable. For example, to support the city of Changwon smart city ambitions, the Changwon Architectural Design Institute, which operates across architecture, municipal engineering and city planning is standardizing on AEC collections and developing features to Revit APIs, which automate modeling, drawings and specification inspection. These will leverage the design institute's expertise in BIM and enable faster and higher quality design, reduce error and waste during construction and build the digital twins for post-construction operation and maintenance. In a challenging market environment, the design institute has been able to win new business and capture new market through digital transformation.

    在建築、工程和施工(AEC)領域,我們的客戶不斷推動工作流程的數位轉型,以贏得新業務,並提升效率和永續性。例如,為了支持昌原市的智慧城市建設,業務涵蓋建築、市政工程和城市規劃的昌原建築設計院正在對AEC標準進行規範化,並開發Revit API的自動化功能,以實現建模、繪圖和規範審核的自動化。這些措施將充分利用設計院在BIM方面的專業知識,從而實現更快、更高品質的設計,減少施工過程中的錯誤和浪費,並建造用於後期運營和維護的數位孿生模型。在充滿挑戰的市場環境下,該設計院透過數位轉型成功贏得了新業務,並開拓了新的市場。

  • In construction, we are seeking to eliminate waste at the source rather than simply automating the process around it. By seamlessly connecting construction data and workflows both upstream with preconstruction and design and downstream to hand over, operations and maintenance bases to our digital twin, we are enabling a more connected and sustainable way of building. For example, after a leading mechanical contractor in the United States purchased a competitor's construction management product a few years ago, communication and workflows between the design and field teams were disconnected, resulting in data fragmentation, less insight, more complicated reporting and ultimately low adoption of the process. To resolve these issues, it chose to consolidate all of its design to build workload on the integrated Autodesk platform, turning to Autodesk Build to streamline handoffs between detailing, the fab shop and the field.

    在建築業,我們致力於從源頭消除浪費,而不僅僅是實現流程自動化。透過將上游的施工數據和工作流程(包括前期準備和設計階段)以及下游的交付、營運和維護基地與我們的數位孿生模型無縫連接,我們正在打造一種更互聯互通、可持續的建造方式。例如,幾年前,美國一家領先的機械承包商購買了競爭對手的施工管理產品後,設計團隊和現場團隊之間的溝通和工作流程脫節,導致數據碎片化、洞察力不足、報告更加複雜,最終流程採用率低。為了解決這些問題,該公司選擇將所有從設計到建造的工作負載整合到整合的 Autodesk 平台上,並採用 Autodesk Build 來簡化細部設計、預製車間和現場之間的交接流程。

  • Our momentum in construction continues to grow. Across construction, we added almost 1,000 new logos with Autodesk Build's monthly active users growing more than 60% quarter-over-quarter and becoming Autodesk's largest construction products. In infrastructure, we see greater appetite from owners to accelerate their digital transformation to connect workflows from designed to make on the Autodesk platform. For example, to transform the speed, efficiency and sustainability of its network, one of the leading electricity network operators in Europe is accelerating its transformation from 2D to BIM and digital twins. In the third quarter, it signed its first EBA with Autodesk, adding Revit and Docs to enable it to upgrade the capacity of its substations and incorporate renewable power generation rapidly and safely. To accelerate maintenance workflows and reduce costs, the customer is in-sourcing the production of maintenance parts and using Fusion 360 as a platform for 3D printing.

    我們在建築領域的成長勢頭持續強勁。在整個建築領域,我們新增了近 1,000 位客戶,Autodesk Build 的月活躍用戶較上季成長超過 60%,成為 Autodesk 最大的建築產品。在基礎設施領域,我們看到業主們越來越渴望加速數位轉型,將設計到製造的工作流程整合到 Autodesk 平台上。例如,為了提升電網的速度、效率和永續性,歐洲領先的電力網路營運商之一正在加速從 2D 模型向 BIM 和數位孿生的轉型。第三季度,該公司與 Autodesk 簽署了首份企業協議 (EBA),新增了 Revit 和 Docs,使其能夠快速且安全地升級變電站容量並整合再生能源發電。為了加快維護工作流程並降低成本,該客戶正在將維護零件的生產納入內部,並使用 Fusion 360 作為 3D 列印平台。

  • Turning to manufacturing. We've sustained good momentum in our manufacturing portfolio this quarter as we connected more workflows from design through to the shop floor, developed more on-ramps to our manufacturing platform and delivered new powerful tools and functionality to Fusion 360 extension. We continue to drive efficiency and sustainability for our customers and provide further resilience and competitiveness in uncertain times. For example, De Nora is an Italian multinational company specializing in electrochemistry and is a leader in sustainable technologies in the industrial green hydrogen production chain. It has been a longtime user of AutoCAD and Revit. Over the last few years, it accelerated its cloud strategy by replacing a competitor's on-premise PLM solution with an integrated Vault and Fusion 360-managed solutions and improve the security of its data, enables seamless collaboration between product design and manufacturing and more easily onboard and integrate acquisitions.

    再來看看製造業。本季度,我們在製造業領域保持了良好的發展勢頭,我們整合了從設計到車間的更多工作流程,開發了更多接入我們製造平台的入口,並為 Fusion 360 擴展程序提供了強大的新工具和功能。我們將繼續提升客戶的效率和永續性,並在充滿不確定性的時期增強他們的韌性和競爭力。例如,De Nora 是一家專注於電化學的義大利跨國公司,也是工業綠色氫氣生產鏈中永續技術的領導者。該公司長期以來一直是 AutoCAD 和 Revit 的用戶。過去幾年,De Nora 加速了其雲端策略的實施,以整合的 Vault 和 Fusion 360 管理解決方案取代了競爭對手的本地 PLM 解決方案,從而提高了資料安全性,實現了產品設計和製造之間的無縫協作,並更輕鬆地完成了收購和整合工作。

  • In Q3, it took another step in its digital transformation by firstly transitioning to named users and adding premium for better usage reporting, insights and single sign on security. And secondly, by adding Flex to optimize consumption for its occasional users. Heineken is on a mission to become the best connected brewer as part of its evergreen strategy and is undergoing a digital transformation to ensure is prepared for the unforeseen challenges in an ever-changing world.

    第三季度,喜力在數位轉型方面又邁出了重要一步。首先,公司轉向指定使用者模式,並推出進階版服務,以提供更完善的使用報告、洞察分析和單一登入安全保障。其次,該公司也推出了 Flex 服務,旨在優化偶爾飲用用戶的消費體驗。喜力致力於成為互聯程度最高的啤酒釀造商,這是其持續發展策略的一部分。公司正在進行數位轉型,以確保能夠應對瞬息萬變的世界中可能出現的各種挑戰。

  • To help, Autodesk has been supporting Heineken's 3D printing initiative with an expanded adoption of Fusion 360 across a number of breweries. By designing and manufacturing their own equipment parts in-house, Heineken has been able to see a reduction in the replacement times of a number of parts from over 6 weeks to just 4 hours, significantly reducing downtime and lessening the carbon impact of shipping new parts when necessary.

    為了提供協助,Autodesk 一直支援喜力啤酒的 3D 列印計劃,並在多家啤酒廠推廣使用 Fusion 360 軟體。透過自主設計和製造設備零件,喜力啤酒已將多種零件的更換時間從 6 週以上縮短至僅 4 小時,顯著減少了停機時間,並降低了必要時運輸新零件所產生的碳排放。

  • Scanship AS, a Vow Group company is a great example of how our customers are using our Fusion platform to generate sustainable outcomes efficiently and transparently for customers. It has developed technology that processes waste and purified wastewater providing valuable, sustainable and circular resources and clean energy to a wide range of customers. By consolidating on Fusion 360 managed with Upchain, Scanship AS will be able to connect data and workflows in the cloud to manage processes and collaborate more easily and efficiently, while also gaining greater transparency on its supply chain to deliver decarbonized products to its customers.

    身為Vow集團旗下公司,Scanship AS充分展現了我們的客戶如何利用Fusion平台高效透明地為客戶創造永續的成果。該公司開發的技術能夠處理廢棄物和淨化後的廢水,為眾多客戶提供寶貴、可持續的循環資源和清潔能源。透過整合Upchain管理的Fusion 360平台,Scanship AS能夠將資料和工作流程連接到雲端,更輕鬆且有效率地管理流程和開展協作,同時提高供應鏈的透明度,最終為客戶提供低碳產品。

  • Fusion 360's commercial subscribers grew steadily, ending the quarter with 211,000 subscribers, with demand for extensions continuing to grow at an exceptional pace. Outside of commercial use, a rapidly growing ecosystem of students and hobbyists learning next-generation technology and workflows will take those skills with them into the workforce. We'd like to congratulate students from over 57 countries who recently competed in the finals of the WorldSkills competition, aptly referred to as the Olympics for vocational skills. Students used the latest workflows and technologies from Fusion 360 and Autodesk Construction Cloud to compete in vocational disciplines such as mechanical engineering, additive manufacturing and digital construction. Sit Shun Le from Singapore, who won the gold medal for additive manufacturing, used Fusion 360 to find the optimum structure and then minimize the amount of materials used through additive manufacturing. All participants were able to hone their skills using next-generation technology. I'm inspired by their ingenuity and optimistic about the innovation they will bring to the workforce of the future.

    Fusion 360 的商業用戶數量穩定成長,本季末達到 21.1 萬,擴充程式的需求也持續高速成長。除了商業用途外,一個快速發展的學生和愛好者群體正在學習下一代技術和工作流程,並將這些技能帶入未來的工作。我們祝賀來自 57 個國家的學生最近參加了世界技能大賽的決賽,該賽事被譽為職業技能領域的「奧運」。學生們使用 Fusion 360 和 Autodesk Construction Cloud 的最新工作流程和技術,在機械工程、積層製造和數位建造等職業技能項目中展開競爭。來自新加坡的 Sit Shun Le 榮獲增材製造項目金牌,他利用 Fusion 360 找到了最佳結構,並透過積層製造最大限度地減少了材料用量。所有參賽者都能夠利用下一代技術磨練自己的技能。他們的創造力令我深受鼓舞,我對他們未來將為職場帶來的創新充滿信心。

  • And finally, we continue to work with customers to provide access to the most current and secure software through our license compliance initiatives. For example, we worked collaboratively with a large multinational manufacturing company seeking to adhere to the same software standards and ensure access to the latest and safest software for all its employees across the globe. We helped customers conduct a self-audit that identifies gaps in its operations in China and then crafted and optimized a bespoked subscription plan. As a result, we agreed to an approximately 5 million contracts in Q3, our largest ever license compliance agreement. During the quarter, we closed 8 deals of $500,000 and 4 deals over $1 million. To close, subscription renewal rates and net revenue retention continue to compound. New business growth remains good, and our competitive performance remains strong.

    最後,我們繼續與客戶合作,透過我們的許可合規計劃,確保他們能夠獲得最新、最安全的軟體。例如,我們與一家大型跨國製造企業密切合作,協助其遵守統一的軟體標準,並確保其全球所有員工都能使用最新、最安全的軟體。我們協助客戶進行自我審計,識別其在中國營運中的不足之處,並為其量身定制和優化訂閱方案。最終,我們在第三季達成了約500萬美元的合同,創下了我們有史以來最大的許可合規協議紀錄。本季度,我們完成了8筆50萬美元的交易和4筆超過100萬美元的交易。此外,訂閱續訂率和淨收入留存率持續成長。新業務成長依然良好,我們的市場競爭力依然強勁。

  • The business is performing as we'd expect given secular growth tailwinds and macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy and COVID-19 headwind. Our capital allocation will remain disciplined and focused through the cycle with organic investment and acquisitions accelerating our growth potential and competitive intensity and share buyback offsetting dilution. The breadth and depth of the market opportunity ahead of us is substantial, and our platform investments will expand that opportunity and realization of it.

    鑑於長期成長的利多因素以及宏觀經濟、地緣政治、政策和新冠疫情帶來的不利影響,公司業務表現符合預期。我們將維持資本配置的嚴謹性和專注性,貫穿整個週期,透過內生投資和收購加速成長,提升競爭強度,並透過股票回購抵銷股權稀釋。我們面前的市場機會廣闊而深遠,而我們的平台投資將進一步拓展並實現這一機會。

  • Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

    接線員,現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Saket Kalia of Barclays.

    (操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的薩凱特·卡利亞。

  • Saket Kalia - Senior Analyst

    Saket Kalia - Senior Analyst

  • Debbie, maybe we'll start to start with you. I don't want to put you on the spot here. But I guess just given the evolving macro and some of the other factors that we spoke about, is there anything that you want us to know high level on kind of how you're thinking about fiscal '24 as we maybe fine-tune our models looking out?

    黛比,或許我們應該先從你開始。我不想讓你感到難堪。但考慮到不斷變化的宏觀經濟狀況以及我們剛才討論的其他一些因素,你對2024財年有什麼總體上的看法嗎?這樣我們就可以對模型進行微調,並展望未來。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • We'll give formal guidance for fiscal '24 in February when we report on next quarter's results. But here are some things to think about. First, on revenue. At this point, we expect some exogenous headwinds out of the gate. We'll have about a 5-point-or-so incremental FX headwind. That's because of the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar and then another point of incremental headwind from exiting Russia. That's going to make it tough for us to grow revenue beyond double digits. On margin, the revenue headwind creates margin growth headwinds, which likely means limited progress on reported margins in fiscal '24. Put another way, margins will look better at constant exchange rates.

    我們將在2月發布下一季業績報告時,正式公佈2024財年的業績指引。但在此之前,有幾點值得考慮。首先是營收方面。目前,我們預期初期將面臨一些外在不利因素。匯率波動將帶來約5個百分點的額外不利影響。這是由於美元持續走強,以及退出俄羅斯市場帶來的額外不利影響。這些因素將使我們的營收難以實現兩位數以上的成長。在利潤率方面,營收不利因素也會對利潤率成長造成不利影響,這意味著2024財年公佈的利潤率成長可能有限。換句話說,在固定匯率下,利潤率會更好一些。

  • And then on free cash flow, FactSet consensus right now is a range of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion. There's a couple of important things to consider. The first is the rate at which our customers transition to annual billings. And the second is the overall macroeconomic environment. We continue to be focused on executing on that transition as fast as possible because while the change is good for us, and it's good for our customers, from a financial standpoint, we really want the noise behind us. So remember, the faster that we move the multiyear based annual billings, the greater the free cash flow headwind we'll see in fiscal '24. On macro, we will, as usual, give our fiscal '24 guidance based on the macro conditions that we see as we exit fiscal '23.

    至於自由現金流,FactSet目前的共識預期是12億到17億美元。這裡有兩個重要因素要考慮。首先是客戶向年度結算模式過渡的速度。其次是整體宏觀經濟環境。我們將繼續專注於盡快完成這項過渡,因為雖然這項變更對我們和客戶都有利,但從財務角度來看,我們真的希望盡快擺脫這些幹擾因素。所以請記住,我們越快推進多年期年度結算模式,2024財年自由現金流面臨的阻力就越大。宏觀方面,我們將一如既往地根據2023財年結束時的宏觀經濟狀況給予2024財年的業績指引。

  • Saket Kalia - Senior Analyst

    Saket Kalia - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. That makes a lot of sense. Andrew, maybe for my follow-up for you, a lot of helpful commentary just on retention rates and sort of the pace of new business. I was wondering if you could just go one level deeper. And maybe we could just talk about how demand fared through the quarter? Most of the business, as I think we all know, is pretty high velocity. But I'm curious if you saw changing trends in pipeline or close rates or duration preferences towards the end of the quarter versus earlier? Any commentary there would be helpful.

    明白了,明白了,很有道理。安德魯,關於客戶留存率和新業務拓展速度,我有一些很有幫助的評論,想請教你。我想再深入探討一下,例如本季的需求情況如何?正如我們所知,大部分業務的周轉速度都很快。但我很好奇,你是否觀察到本季末與季度初相比,銷售通路、成交率或客戶偏好方面的變化趨勢?任何相關評論都將不勝感激。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, Q3 was very much like Q2 and that the quarter was fairly consistent, right? What was different between Q3 and Q2 was the slowing down in Europe taking Russia out. And that was definitely something that was different about the quarters. But that was consistent across the entire quarter. There was no acceleration or change of that as you proceeded across the quarter. Europe was weak throughout the quarter. As were -- some of the preferences with regards to multiyear billings, there was no kind of trend of more and more reluctance as you headed further and further down the quarter. So it's a fairly consistent quarter with regards to all of those things and fairly consistent performance of the business across the quarter. So nothing that fundamentally changed in the quarter.

    是的。你看,第三季和第二季非常相似,整個季度都相當穩定,對吧?第三季和第二季的差異在於歐洲市場(不包括俄羅斯)的成長放緩。這確實是兩個季度的一個不同。但這種情況貫穿了整個季度。隨著季度的推進,這種放緩並沒有加速或改變。歐洲市場在整個季度都表現疲軟。此外,關於多年期帳單的偏好也一樣,隨著季度的推進,並沒有出現越來越不情願的趨勢。因此,就所有這些方面而言,這是一個相當穩定的季度,業務表現也相當穩定。所以,本季沒有發生任何根本性的變化。

  • Look, one of the things -- another thing that was different about Q3 over Q2 is that we had some currency fluctuations towards the end. And that really is probably the only thing that was different, and those currency fluctuations were responsible for the majority of the small revenue miss.

    你看,第三季與第二季不同的一點是,我們在季度末遇到了一些匯率波動。這大概是唯一的不同之處,而這些匯率波動正是營收小幅下滑的主因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

  • Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

    Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

  • Andrew, for you, first, to follow up on some comments you made regarding your strategy at AU and then allow a follow-up for Debbie. So at AU, you made some comments with regard to the various clouds that you've introduced, and you made an important distinction between the AEC cloud and the manufacturing cloud, namely that manufacturing cloud is more mature. It's been out in the market perhaps longer. So what is your expectation for the maturity or development of the AEC cloud to get it to where you think it needs to be so it'll be comparably mature or capable, the way the manufacturing cloud is, the way you described it at AU?

    安德魯,首先我想就你在AU大會上關於戰略的一些發言做個後續提問,然後再讓黛比回答一下。在AU大會上,你談到了你推出的各種雲端平台,並且你對AEC雲端和製造雲做了一個重要的區分,即製造雲更加成熟,它在市場上出現的時間可能更長。那麼,你對AEC雲端的成熟度或發展有何預期,才能使其達到你認為它需要達到的成熟度和能力水平,就像你在AU大會上所描述的那樣?

  • And then for Debbie as a follow-up since the door was open to an FY '24 discussion, apart from everything else you're doing programmatically, could you talk about some of the things that you're going to be doing with regard to channel compensation in terms of margin structure, comping on annual versus multiyear and all those various things that you're planning to implement? And if those are going to have any effect on your margins and your cash flow?

    黛比,既然你提到了2024財年的討論,我想就此再問一個後續問題。除了你正在進行的程序化推廣工作之外,你能否談談你在通路補償方面會採取哪些措施,例如利潤結構、按年支付還是按多年支付,以及你計劃實施的其他各種措施?這些措施是否會對你的利潤率和現金流產生任何影響?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • All right, Jay. So I'll start with regards to the Forma evolution. It's going to be kind of similar to what happened with Fusion, all right? And I'll kind of tell it this way. When we started Fusion, we actually anchored Fusion on 2 things. We started Fusion upfront in the design process. You probably don't remember the early days of Fusions, Fusion was actually a conceptual design application. It was highly focused on consumer products design and upfront design processes. And we started to bolting onto it the downstream processes close to the (inaudible) manufacturing, and we started building cloud-based connections between those 2 and basically filling off the middle between those 2 bookends of manufacturing and conceptual design.

    好的,Jay。那我先從Forma的演變說起。它的發展歷程和Fusion有點類似,對吧?我這麼說吧。我們最初開發Fusion的時候,其實是圍繞著兩點展開的。首先,我們把Fusion放在設計流程的前期階段。你可能已經不記得Fusion早期的樣子了,它其實是一個概念設計軟體,主要專注於消費品設計和前期設計流程。然後,我們開始把下游流程,也就是接近(聽不清楚)製造的流程,在兩者之間建立基於雲端的連接,基本上填補了製造和概念設計這兩個環節之間的空白。

  • Think of the evolution of format is very similar to that, right? The cloud -- the Forma cloud is going to start off focusing on the upfront conceptual phases of design, helping architects, planners, developers, all types of people that have to deal with early conceptual decisions about utilization, space utilization, aligning and distributing various aspects of development or an individual building and helping them make some better decisions far upfront in the design. But it's also going to work to integrate downstream to what we're doing in Construction Cloud. So Construction Cloud will start getting very close to some of the early bits of what Forma does.

    格式的演變與此非常相似,對吧? Forma 雲端平台將首先專注於設計的早期概念階段,幫助建築師、規劃師、開發商以及所有需要處理早期概念決策的人員,例如空間利用、規劃、協調和分配開發項目或單一建築的各個方面,幫助他們在設計初期做出更明智的決策。同時,它也將與我們在 Construction Cloud 中所做的工作進行下游整合。因此,Construction Cloud 將開始與 Forma 的一些早期功能非常接近。

  • And over time, what's going to happen is Forma and Construction Cloud, Construction Cloud representing the downstream example of manufacturing, all the bits in between are going to be filled out on the same platform, similar to the evolution that we walked through with Fusion. And that will basically bring the entire process to the cloud over time, but continuously adding value to what our customers are doing today throughout the entire development and evolution of that cloud.

    隨著時間的推移,Forma 和 Construction Cloud(Construction Cloud 代表下游製造環節)將會整合到同一個平台上,就像我們之前在 Fusion 平台上的演進一樣。最終,整個流程將逐步遷移到雲端,並在雲端平台的整個開發和演進過程中,持續為客戶創造價值。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Jay, to your second question, channel compensation, the details, they're still in the works. But ultimately, how we think about engaging with our channel partners, engaging with our customers, how we think about the compensation programs, everything is about delivering value to our customers, driving adoption, driving customer satisfaction. So examples of some of the things that you've seen us do historically are things like moving more front-end incentives to back-end incentives that mandate some kind of adoption metrics, things like that, again, all in service of trying to deliver value. And in terms of the impact on margins, well, we haven't guided to margins next year, we haven't guided specifically to anything next year other than some of the breadcrumbs that I just left you guys. But I would say that as we've said before, we're committed to achieving our margin target in that 38% to 40% range in the fiscal '23 to '26 window.

    傑伊,關於你的第二個問題,頻道補償的具體細節還在製定中。但歸根究底,我們如何與通路夥伴互動、如何與客戶互動、如何制定補償方案,一切都是為了創造客戶價值、推動產品採用、提升顧客滿意度。例如,我們過去的做法之一是將更多的前端激勵措施轉移到後端激勵措施,並要求達到一定的採用指標等等,所有這些都是為了努力創造價值。至於對利潤率的影響,我們沒有對明年的利潤率做出預測,除了我剛才提到的一些資訊之外,我們沒有對明年的任何方面做出具體預測。但我想說的是,正如我們之前所說,我們致力於在2023至2026財年期間實現38%至40%的利潤率目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Phil Winslow of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的菲爾溫斯洛。

  • Philip Alan Winslow - MD & Software Analyst

    Philip Alan Winslow - MD & Software Analyst

  • But Andrew, a question for you, then a follow-up for Debbie. One of the questions I think is about the cyclicality of the AEC industry. And as you mentioned, the industry entered this year with a backlog from 2020 and frankly, even 2019. But as you pointed out, the macroeconomic environment has obviously deteriorated. So my question is what are you seeing and hearing from this vertical, especially about sort of the go-forward pipeline, as you think about the software that Autodesk sells in the various spaces here, the design, plan, build and maintain? And then I'll just wait to ask the question to Debbie.

    安德魯,我先問你一個問題,然後再問黛比一個後續問題。我認為其中一個問題是關於AEC行業的周期性。正如你所提到的,該行業今年年初就積壓了2020年甚至2019年的訂單。但正如你所指出的,宏觀經濟環境顯然已經惡化。所以我的問題是,你從這個垂直領域看到了什麼,聽到了什麼,特別是關於未來的專案規劃,以及你考慮到Autodesk在設計、規劃、建造和維護等各個領域銷售的軟體?之後我會等黛比回答完這個問題再問她。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So first off, one thing continues to pressure the industry more than the demand, and it is the labor shortages and the capacity to execute. Construction companies still have a backlog of business. They're still struggling to execute through the business that they have. I'm sure you saw that some of the leading indicators of architectural buildings have gone or entered into a shrinking territory, which means that architects are going to see some decline in some of their buildings moving forward, but they also still have a backlog of business.

    是的。首先,比起需求,還有一件事持續對建築業造成更大的壓力,那就是勞動力短缺和施工能力不足。建築公司仍然積壓著大量項目,他們仍在努力完成現有的訂單。我相信您也注意到,一些建築業的領先指標已經或即將進入萎縮期,這意味著建築師未來可能會面臨部分項目數量的下降,但他們仍然面臨著大量的積壓項目。

  • So we're still seeing customers saying, look, you know what, I have a pretty big pipeline of business that I haven't executed on a queue of projects, and I still have capacity problems of getting through it. They're labor-related, they're material related, they're execution related. So we still have an overhang of backlog that's going to continue into next year for a lot of our customers, and that's what we're hearing from our customers. That's not to say they're not seeing pressure, and that's not to say that they're not seeing some pressure in various segments. But they're still seeing a pretty good book of business for the next 12 to 18 months. Now as things continue, they'll start to see kind of downward pressure in some of that backlog. But right now, they're all much more concerned about their ability to execute than they are about the book of business that they're accumulating.

    所以我們仍然聽到客戶說,他們積壓了大量項目,還來不及執行,而且產能也跟不上。這些問題涉及勞動力​​、材料和執行等各個方面。因此,許多客戶的積壓訂單會持續到明年,這是我們從客戶那裡聽到的。這並不是說他們沒有感受到壓力,也不是說他們在各個領域都沒有感受到壓力。但他們仍預計未來12到18個月的業務量相當不錯。隨著情勢的發展,部分積壓訂單可能會出現下行壓力。但目前,他們更關心的是執行能力,而不是業務量。

  • Philip Alan Winslow - MD & Software Analyst

    Philip Alan Winslow - MD & Software Analyst

  • Awesome. And then Debbie, just a follow-up on billings. At the beginning of the year, you talked about long-term deferred revenue, I think, being in the high 20s as a percentage of toll as you exit this year. I wonder if you could give us an update on that. And then in terms of next fiscal year, as you move towards 1-year billings, help us maybe quantify sort of the drawdown of long-term deferred revenue and the impact of that? Because obviously, you flagged the sell-side range right now of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion, but obviously, that's pretty broad. So maybe some color on the impact of long-term deferred next year would be helpful, too.

    太棒了。黛比,關於帳單方面,我想再問一個後續問題。年初的時候,你提到長期遞延收入佔今年通行費收入的比例大概在20%以上。我想請你更新一下這方面的狀況。另外,關於下一個財年,隨著你們開始計算一年期帳單,能否幫我們量化一下長期遞延收入的減少幅度以及其影響?因為你之前提到的賣方預測範圍是12億到17億美元,但這顯然範圍很廣。所以,如果能具體說明明年長期遞延收入的影響就更好了。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So overall, our messaging in these 2 areas hasn't changed. So we were talking about long-term deferred as a percent of total deferred in that 20s range, and it's going to continue to be there. The impact of our guidance adjustment for billings, a little over $100 million on a $5 billion number is not significant. And so we're not anticipating that they will have a major impact on the metrics that you described.

    是的。所以總體而言,我們在這兩個領域的訊息傳遞沒有改變。我們之前談到長期延期付款佔總延期付款的比例在20%左右,這個比例還會繼續維持在這個水準。我們對帳單金額的預期調整,在50億美元的總額中略高於1億美元,影響並不顯著。因此,我們預計這些調整不會對您提到的指標產生重大影響。

  • As we think about next year, I don't have anything additional to share on how to think about the decline or what have you, other than to reiterate what I said before, and that is to think about the fact that consensus that's out there right now, that range of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion. And then to reiterate that it's really our goal to move as fast as possible because we really like to get this financial noise behind us.

    展望明年,關於如何看待下滑或其他問題,我沒有什麼額外的補充,只想重申我之前說過的話,那就是要考慮到目前普遍的共識,即12億至17億美元的區間。然後再次強調,我們的目標是盡快行動,因為我們真的希望擺脫這些金融噪音。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Adam Borg of Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Adam Borg。

  • Adam Charles Borg - Associate

    Adam Charles Borg - Associate

  • First, for Andrew, and then a follow-up for Debbie. So just given the macro, are you seeing any trends of customers either -- not necessarily upgrading to collections that otherwise or doing so earlier in the year? Or conversely, any trade downs from collections to point solutions or even LT? And then I have a follow-up.

    首先,我問安德魯一個問題,然後黛比再問一個後續問題。就宏觀層面而言,您是否觀察到客戶的任何趨勢—例如,他們是否不一定升級到收款服務,或升級時間是否提前?或者相反,是否有客戶從收款服務降級到單點解決方案,甚至是長期解決方案?接下來我還有一個後續問題。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Okay. Great. Adam. No, actually, there's no change in those demand preferences with regards to collections and what people are buying. The mix of state essentially is same, the renewal rate of the states pretty steady. If anything what we're seeing is softness in the low end of our business, which is what you would expect in a climate like this. LT growth has lowed, LT renewal rates have seen some pressure. That's where we're seeing things. The collections percentages, the collections renewal rates, these have remained steady throughout the year and throughout the quarter.

    是的。好的。太好了。亞當。不,實際上,就催收業務和人們的購買選擇而言,這些需求偏好並沒有改變。各州的業務組成基本上相同,各州的續保率也相當穩定。如果有什麼變化的話,那就是我們業務的低端部分有所疲軟,這在當前的經濟環境下是意料之中的。長期業務成長放緩,長期業務續保率也面臨一些壓力。這就是我們觀察到的情況。催收率和催收續保率在全年和本季都保持穩定。

  • Adam Charles Borg - Associate

    Adam Charles Borg - Associate

  • Awesome. And maybe just for Debbie. So -- and I don't know if this is a harder question to answer, but if the multiyear mix came in line with your original expectations, how we think about the billings guide or even the billings results in the year, right? If it was the original mix that going into the quarter.

    太棒了。也許只是為了黛比。所以——我不知道這個問題是否更難回答,但如果多年期組合符合你最初的預期,我們該如何看待賬單指南,甚至是當年的賬單結果呢?如果季度初的組合與最初的預期一致的話。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • If I understand your question correctly, if the proportion of our business that had been multiyear was in line with our expectations then we would have hit our original guide. And the fact that we're seeing some in that cohort choose to move to annual billings or annual contracts, that's making it so that we're reducing the billings and free cash flow guide. But maybe -- did I understand your question correctly?

    如果我理解正確,如果多年期合約的業務比例符合預期,那麼我們就能達到最初的業績目標。但事實上,我們發現部分多年期合約客戶選擇轉為年度結算或年度合約,這導致我們不得不下調營收和自由現金流預期。不過,我是否真的了解您的問題?

  • Adam Charles Borg - Associate

    Adam Charles Borg - Associate

  • Super clear.

    非常清晰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Stephen Tusa。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • So I'm just -- maybe I'm an idiot, but just like reading between the lines, the faster you guys move in the transition, all else equal, the lower the free cash flow next year will be, correct? Or are there other things moving around?

    所以,我可能有點笨,但我想說的是,在其他條件相同的情況下,你們轉型速度越快,明年的自由現金流就會越低,對嗎?還是說還有其他因素在起作用?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • The faster the transition, well, first, I want to continue to characterize that the impact of the numbers is relatively small, and it would have a minor follow-on implications to next year. But ultimately, what was built into our guidance was an expectation of a certain proportion of the business that was going to be multiyear upfront. A small portion of those customers have elected to be annual. So rather than it being a negative impact to next year, it would be a very slight positive impact to next year because we would have annual billings next year that weren't in the form of a multiyear upfront transaction this year.

    過渡速度越快,首先,我想繼續強調,這些數字的影響相對較小,對明年的影響也微乎其微。但歸根究底,我們先前的預期是,一定比例的業務會採用多年期預付款模式。其中一小部分客戶選擇了按年付款。因此,這不會對明年造成負面影響,反而會帶來輕微的正面影響,因為我們明年將收到一些原本屬於多年期預付款的年度帳單。

  • But I want to continue to reiterate that the impact is relatively small. The impact to our billings guidance this year is relatively small. And if you think about the scale of the free cash flow number next year, I want to go back to that range that I was talking about that fact that consensus range of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion. And our goal really is to move the totality of the multiyear base to annual billings as fast as possible. And the faster we go, the greater that headwind is going to be to free cash flow next year.

    但我仍然要重申,影響相對較小。對我們今年的帳單預期影響也相對較小。考慮到明年自由現金流的規模,我想回到我之前提到的12億至17億美元的預期區間。我們的目標是盡快將所有多年期帳單轉換為年度帳單。我們推進得越快,明年自由現金流面臨的阻力就越大。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Yes, I was -- yes, exactly. I was asking about '24. Basically, you're kind of telling us $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion and then you're reiterating that you're going to try and move as fast as possible. So it was just much more of a '24 question, which you just, I think, answered.

    是的,沒錯。我問的是2024年的情況。基本上,您告訴我們預算在12億到17億美元之間,然後您重申您會盡力盡快推進。所以這更多的是關於2024年的問題,而您剛才已經回答了。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. Great.

    好的,太好了。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Right. The faster you move, the more impact you have next year?

    沒錯。行動越快,明年影響力越大。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Correct. Yes.

    正確。是的。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Okay. That's super helpful. And any color on kind of the I guess, the drop-through on bookings -- or sorry, billings when I look at free cash flow it's like 85% to free cash flow, That's, I guess -- just it drops through with your gross margin. I would assume you don't really manage that on a quarterly basis. So it makes some sense. I am I looking at that the right way? Or is there something on the cost line that moves around and mitigates that decline in billings?

    好的,這很有幫助。關於訂單量(或抱歉,是帳單金額)的下降,我看自由現金流時發現它佔自由現金流的85%,這部分下降會直接影響毛利率。我猜你們應該不會按季度來管理這部分,所以這樣理解也說得通。我的理解對嗎?或者說成本方面有什麼因素會影響帳單金額的下降,進而緩解這種影響?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I think you're thinking about it in a directionally accurate way. The billings reduction then has a follow-on implication to the free cash flow reduction. There's nothing else going on there.

    不,我認為你的思路方向是對的。帳單金額減少必然會導致自由現金流減少。除此之外,沒有其他原因了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Funk of Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的麥可‧芬克。

  • Michael J. Funk - VP in Equity Research

    Michael J. Funk - VP in Equity Research

  • Yes. So you mentioned a few times trying to incentivize the shift from multiyear to annual. So first, what are you doing to incentivize that? I guess second, what drove the different customer behavior this quarter than expected with the shift? And I guess third part, same question, is how quickly do you believe that you can transition your base over to annual as we think about trying to model out the free cash flow impact?

    是的。您之前多次提到要激勵客戶從多年期合約轉向年度合約。首先,您採取了哪些措施來激勵客戶?其次,是什麼原因導致本季客戶行為與預期有所不同?第三點,也是同樣的問題,您認為在考慮如何模擬自由現金流影響時,您預計多久能將所有客戶群過渡到年度合約?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. So let's -- taking detailed note. So in terms of the incentives, the incentives for both our channel partners -- well, for our channel partners are still in place. So that's part of the programmatic details that we're working through right now as we engage with our partners and we execute on the transition. Remember, a substantial majority of that transition is going to be next year in our fiscal '24, and that's why those details are still in flight.

    好的。那我們來詳細記錄一下。關於激勵措施,我們通路夥伴的激勵措施仍然有效。這是我們目前正在與合作夥伴溝通並推進過渡工作時需要解決的程序化細節問題之一。請記住,大部分過渡工作將在明年,也就是我們的2024財年完成,所以這些細節仍在製定中。

  • On the customer side, what they've historically had a discount of anywhere from 10% to 5% to have a multiyear contract that's invoiced and collected upfront, and that discount goes away. So the incentive is not there necessarily in the future for those customers to be trying to pay for upfront. And we think based on the feedback that we've been getting from our customers that they want to have multiyear contracts with annual billings. It's good for them in managing their cash flow just like it's good for us. It removes the volatility that we see. And as you can see from our guidance this quarter, the volatility that we see with those multiyear upfront contracts.

    對客戶而言,以往簽訂多年期合約並預先開票付款通常可享 5% 到 10% 的折扣,但這項折扣即將取消。因此,未來客戶可能不再有動機選擇預先付款。根據我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋,我們認為他們更傾向於簽訂多年合約並按年結算。這有利於他們管理現金流,也有利於我們。它能消除我們所看到的波動。正如您從我們本季的業績指引中所看到的,多年期預付款合約確實存在波動性。

  • In terms of what drove the behavior that we saw this past quarter, well, the end of the multiyear discount is coming at the start of next year. And so we were anticipating more demand for multiyear upfront contracts. And in the end, we're seeing slightly less demand than we expected. In the current macroeconomic environment, that's not surprising. The trade-off of the discount versus the cash upfront, it's not as enticing for some customers right now. We've assumed that the behavior that we saw with respect to the materials in Q3 persists through Q4. And that's what's built into our guidance. It's consistent with our overall guidance philosophy. And we really think that it reinforces our strategy to move to annual billings. We're hopeful that it's a positive sign for the transition next year.

    就上個季度我們觀察到的行為而言,主要原因是多年折扣將於明年年初結束。因此,我們原本預期多年預付款合約的需求會增加。但最終,我們看到的實際需求略低於預期。在當前的宏觀經濟環境下,這並不令人意外。對於某些客戶而言,折扣與預付款之間的權衡吸引力目前有所下降。我們假設第三季材料方面的行為將持續到第四季。這已納入我們的業績指引。這與我們整體的業績指引理念相符。我們認為,這進一步強化了我們向年度結算模式過渡的策略。我們希望這能為明年的過渡帶來正面影響。

  • And then finally, in terms of what we can do in order to drive the pace. Well, a lot of that's going to come down to our internal capabilities being available. I've mentioned before, that we're investing in systems to set us up to manage all these contracts at scale, and we're on pace. With those system changes, ultimately, it's going to come down to what's on our price list and how we work through these programmatic details with our partners. And these are all decisions that are very much under discussion right now, and that you'll hear more from us over the next couple of months.

    最後,關於我們如何加快進度,這很大程度取決於我們內部能力的可用性。我之前提到過,我們正在投資建設系統,以便大規模管理所有這些合同,而且進展順利。隨著這些系統的升級,最終將取決於我們的價格表以及我們如何與合作夥伴協商這些程式化廣告的細節。這些都是我們正在積極討論的決策,未來幾個月我們會發布更多相關資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Gal Munda of Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Gal Munda。

  • Gal Munda - Research Analyst

    Gal Munda - Research Analyst

  • The first one is just around Fusion 360 and what you guys are seeing there. I know that when we visited Autodesk University with us, really, really good feedback. At the same time, the macro environment in manufacturing is kind of going a little bit slow. Is there anything particularly that makes you potentially see any sort of slowdown in that? Or do you think your Fusion 360 throughout the cycle is going to perform better than what you've seen in the past in your manufacturing portfolio?

    第一個問題是關於Fusion 360以及你們目前在使用過程中遇到的情況。我知道我們之前參加Autodesk University時,收到了很多非常好的回饋。同時,製造業的宏觀環境似乎有些放緩。您認為有哪些因素可能導致這種放緩?或者您認為Fusion 360在整個生產週期中的表現會比以往在製造業產品組合中的表現更好?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So first off, Gal, manufacturing grew 13%, 14% on constant currency, that's still best-in-class for our space. So we continue to believe that we're taking share in that respect. Look, you can't have a slowdown in Europe, where we're very strong, without seeing some slowdown in new (inaudible) acquisition with regards to Fusion. However, we still continue to acquire more new users than any of our competitors in the space. So even in the face of some headwinds where we see some slowing, we're outpacing our competitors, which is kind of the important metric here in terms of the appetite and desire for Fusion. It continues to be the disruptive player, the disruptive price point, the disruptive capabilities. And our customers continue to embrace the solution even in the environment of headwinds.

    是的。首先,Gal,以固定匯率計算,製造業成長了13%到14%,這仍然是我們這個領域的最佳水準。因此,我們仍然相信我們在這一領域正在擴大市場份額。你看,在歐洲市場(我們非常強勁的市場)出現放緩,就代表Fusion的新用戶成長也出現了一些放緩。然而,我們仍然比該領域的任何競爭對手都獲得更多的新用戶。因此,即使面臨一些不利因素,成長有所放緩,我們仍然超越了競爭對手,這才是衡量Fusion市場需求和期望的重要指標。它仍然是顛覆性的產品,擁有顛覆性的價格和顛覆性的功能。即使在逆境中,我們的客戶仍然欣然接受我們的解決方案。

  • So we're not concerned because customers really need the efficiency of an end-to-end connected solution, and they really want what they get at the kind of price points that we deliver with Fusion. So we continue to be the preferred solution. I continue that -- I expect that to continue, and I expect our relative performance to remain strong.

    所以我們並不擔心,因為客戶確實需要端對端互聯解決方案的高效性,而且他們也希望以我們Fusion所提供的價格獲得相應的服務。因此,我們仍然是客戶的首選解決方案。我預計這種情況會繼續保持,我們的相對錶現也會保持強勁。

  • Gal Munda - Research Analyst

    Gal Munda - Research Analyst

  • That's perfect. And then just as a follow-up, thinking about the opportunity. I know when COVID happened and we talked about the noncompliant user opportunity, you kind of posed a little bit everything, and you said we're going to come back when the environment, especially macro, is a little bit stronger. You've done that over the last year. If I'm thinking about heading into another macro weakness, how much of an opportunity is coming from the noncompliant users? Or how much more lenient you might be maybe for a year or 2 until that plays out?

    太好了。然後,我想補充一點,關於這個機會。我知道新冠疫情爆發時,我們討論過不合規用戶帶來的機會,您當時幾乎涵蓋了所有方面,並表示我們會等到環境,特別是宏觀環境好轉一些後再重新審視這個問題。過去一年您也確實做到了。如果我考慮再次進入宏觀經濟疲軟期,那麼不合規用戶能帶來多大的機會?或者,在情況明朗之前,您可能會在一兩年內採取更寬鬆的政策嗎?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think we've got a good rhythm in our compliance business right now. I mean I think COVID was a very unique situation where there was a sudden and precipitous impact on our customers. I think we're heading into kind of a different environment in many respect. Of course, manufacturers are seeing increased costs in terms of energy and material costs and things associated with that. So the pressures are real.

    是的。我認為我們目前的合規業務節奏很好。我的意思是,新冠疫情是一個非常特殊的情況,它對我們的客戶產生了突然而劇烈的影響。我認為我們在很多方面都正步入一個不同的環境。當然,製造商面臨著能源和材料成本以及其他相關成本的上漲。所以,壓力是真實存在的。

  • But I think the rate and pace that we're on right now with regards to license compliance makes sense. Like I've always said, this isn't something that we're going to slam the accelerator on and try to move faster. But right now, I don't see us actually changing our pace or slowing down in any kind of way. I think we're at a nice clip right now, and I think we'll be able to maintain it through any kind of bumpiness that we might see as we head into the winter.

    但我認為,就許可證合規性而言,我們目前所採取的速度和節奏是合理的。就像我一直說的,我們不會猛踩油門加速推進。但就目前而言,我認為我們不會改變節奏或放慢速度。我認為我們目前的進度很不錯,而且我相信我們能夠保持這個速度,順利度過即將到來的冬季可能遇到的任何困難。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Matt Hedberg of RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Matt Hedberg。

  • Matthew George Hedberg - Analyst

    Matthew George Hedberg - Analyst

  • Debbie, I wanted to come back to the cash flow breadcrumbs that you gave. Sort of -- you keep talking about the range of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion and wanting to progress as fast as possible. I mean does that effectively imply that, that low end of FactSet consensus is at play? Just sort of curious on why phrase it as a range like that.

    黛比,我想再跟你聊聊你之前提到的現金流狀況。你一直提到12億到17億美元的範圍,並且希望盡快推進。我的意思是,這是否意味著FactSet共識的下限部分正在發揮作用?我只是有點好奇,為什麼要用這樣的範圍來描述。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Matt. So we're not guiding on the call today. We're trying to provide some insight into how to think about it. And that range is in the realm of possibility, and there are a couple of factors that we want to continue to emphasize that are going to impact that. And that is the rate at which our customers transition to annual billings and the overall macroeconomic environment. But as I said, we will provide specifics on the next earnings call.

    謝謝,馬特。所以今天電話會議上我們不做業績指引,而是想提供一些思考方向。這個範圍只是可能性的一部分,我們想繼續強調幾個會影響最終結果的因素,例如客戶向年度計費過渡的速度以及整體宏觀經濟環境。但正如我所說,我們會在下次財報電話會議上提供具體細節。

  • Matthew George Hedberg - Analyst

    Matthew George Hedberg - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe just one on the expense side. I appreciate the currency headwinds next year and sort of the reiteration of kind of the long-term margin framework. Are there things that you guys are doing right now from a spend perspective, whether it's hiring or just sort of like general cost consciousness as we get into more economic uncertainty?

    明白了。或許在支出方面只需要一項。我理解明年匯率波動帶來的不利影響,也理解你們重申了長期利潤框架的重要性。鑑於經濟情勢日益不明朗,你們目前在支出方面有哪些措施?例如招募方面,或是在整體成本控制方面?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks. So first, I want to say that we've been focused on ensuring that we don't spend ahead of top line growth. We've delivered considerable operating margin expansion over the last couple of years. We've exhibited a spend discipline that we now benefit from as the market conditions continue to evolve. If we focus on the near term, we've delivered on our margin goals for the year-to-date. We're on track to do so through the end of the year. You can see that from no change in our operating margin guidance. Our hiring plans at the beginning of the year reflected really what is a solid balance between proactive investment and the discipline required to achieve our margin targets. As we look ahead to next year, we're in the planning process right now, but we're focused on ensuring that we continue this pattern of disciplined spend.

    謝謝。首先,我想說的是,我們一直致力於確保支出不會超過營收成長。過去幾年,我們的營業利潤率實現了顯著提升。我們展現出的支出紀律,讓我們在不斷變化的市場環境中受益匪淺。就近期而言,我們已實現了年初至今的利潤率目標,並且預計在年底前繼續保持這一目標。這一點可以從我們未調整營業利潤率預期看出。年初的招募計畫充分體現了積極投資與實現利潤率目標所需的紀律之間的良好平衡。展望明年,我們目前正在進行規劃,但我們的重點是確保繼續保持這種嚴謹的支出模式。

  • We're looking to ensure that we can invest in the right areas to drive the strategy. So things like purposeful and strategic rather than broad-based investing in areas like our industry clouds and shared services, but all against a backdrop of delivering a healthy margin. I also want to say that we want to ensure that we're not too short term in our thinking. We have a strong balance sheet. We want to make sure that we strike that right balance as we navigate these macro waters. We want to capitalize on the downturn to continue to invest, but all while keeping that watchful eye on operating margin. And as we said before, we are committed to achieving a margin target in the 38% to 40% range in that fiscal '23 to '26 window.

    我們正在努力確保投資方向正確,以推動策略實施。例如,我們會進行有針對性的策略性投資,而非大刀闊斧的廣泛投資,投資領域包括我們的產業雲和共享服務,但這一切都必須在實現健康利潤率的前提下進行。我還想強調,我們希望避免目光短淺。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表。我們希望在應對當前宏觀經濟情勢時,找到適當的平衡。我們希望利用經濟低迷時期繼續投資,但同時也要密切關注營運利潤率。正如我們之前所說,我們致力於在2023至2026財年期間實現38%至40%的利潤率目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Radke of Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的泰勒拉德克。

  • Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst

    Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst

  • Andrew, so at AU, you obviously announced the product announcements on Forma and Flow. I'm curious how, if you could talk a little bit about the plans to accelerate the engineering velocity, specifically, is this is going to require more hiring? Or is it just kind of re-prioritization of your engineers? And then just kind of comparing it to the time line that you saw Fusion play out in that monetization cycle. Just help us understand how you're expecting kind of the product to roll out and the monetization trend over time?

    Andrew,在AU大會上,你顯然發布了Forma和Flow這兩款產品。我很好奇,你能否談談加快工程開發速度的計畫?具體來說,這是否需要更多招募?還是僅僅需要重新調整工程師的優先順序?另外,能否將這與Fusion在商業化週期中的發展歷程進行比較?請你幫助我們了解你對產品發布和未來商業化趨勢的預期?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So first off, one of the things we did to just start Forma, as you might recall at the beginning of the pandemic, we acquired a Norwegian company called Spacemaker. And we've continued to invest in that team, and we'll continue to expand that team either by repurposing existing resources to work with that team or by adding additional resources to that team to make sure that we're on track. But one of the foundational investments that supports all of the things we're trying to do with our investment in data.

    是的。首先,正如您可能記得的,在疫情初期,為了啟動 Forma,我們收購了一家名為 Spacemaker 的挪威公司。我們一直在持續投資該團隊,並將繼續擴充該團隊,透過重新分配現有資源或為其增加額外資源,以確保我們按計劃進行。但這項基礎性投資是我們所有數據投資的基石。

  • And that's an ongoing investment in trying to break up Revit files and make them more accessible in the cloud as granular data. Forma and -- by nature is built net native on the cloud and it has granular data at its core. So that's one of the kind of core vectors that we'll be doing. But we will be incrementally investing to ensure that we're heading on the right path with this solution, but we have done some of that already, and we've kind of absorbed some of those investments today.

    我們正在持續投入,嘗試將 Revit 檔案拆分,使其以粒度資料的形式在雲端更易於存取。 Forma 本身就是基於雲端原生建構的,其核心就是粒度資料。因此,這是我們將要推進的核心方向之一。我們會逐步加大投入,以確保解決方案朝著正確的方向發展,但我們已經完成了一部分工作,並且目前已經消化了部分投資。

  • Now I think the question about time line is a really good one because these kind of transformations -- what we're doing with Forma is different, right? What we're doing with Revit to improve its performance and improve its capabilities based on what our customers are asking us to do is making their current tools better. But what Forma is doing, especially with the connection -- its native connections to downstream processes is different. It takes time for different to penetrate the industry, just like different took time with Fusion. It was -- we've been working on Fusion for over a decade, all right, roughly speaking a decade.

    現在我覺得關於時間表的問題問得非常好,因為這類變革——我們對Forma所做的工作與Revit有所不同,對吧?我們對Revit所做的工作是為了根據客戶的需求來改善其效能和功能,從而提升他們現有的工具。但Forma所做的,尤其是在連結方面——它與下游流程的原生連結——是不同的。不同的技術需要時間才能滲透到產業中,就像Fusion一樣。我們開發Fusion已經超過十年了,確切地說,差不多十年。

  • So you can expect that it's going to take 5 years for Forma to mature and even longer for it to totally replace what our customers are doing. However, our goal is to incrementally add value to the process as time goes on, just like we did with Fusion. Fusion, we added incremental value with the connection to downstream manufacturing. In Forma, we're going to add incremental value with regards to the data platforms and the connection to the downstream construction processes. So that's all connected, but it is going to take time similar to what we saw with Fusion.

    因此,您可以預期 Forma 需要 5 年才能成熟,而要完全取代客戶目前使用的系統則需要更長時間。然而,我們的目標是隨著時間的推移,逐步為流程增添價值,就像我們開發 Fusion 時一樣。在 Fusion 中,我們透過與下游製造環節的連結來增加價值。在 Forma 中,我們將透過數據平台以及與下游施工流程的連接來增加價值。所有這些環節都是相互關聯的,但都需要時間,就像我們在開發 Fusion 時一樣。

  • Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst

    Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst

  • That's helpful. And Debbie, maybe a question for you. So just on current RPO, it looked like that did pick up a bit quarter-over-quarter if you back out the currency. Can you just help us understand I guess, first, do you kind of view that as the best leading indicator given the headwinds in billings? And just remind us how you're thinking about the puts and takes on that just as you do -- renew these large EBA customers in the coming quarters. Just anything we should be mindful of there?

    這很有幫助。黛比,我有個問題想問你。就目前的RPO(恢復點目標)而言,如果剔除匯率因素,看起來環比確實有所回升。你能幫我們理解一下嗎?首先,考慮到帳單方面的不利因素,你是否認為RPO是最佳的領先指標?另外,能否提醒我們一下,你是如何考慮RPO的買賣策略的,就像你接下來幾季要續簽這些大型EBA(擴展業務協議)客戶合約一樣?這方面我們有什麼需要注意的嗎?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. So yes, I mean, current RPO is a very important metric in monitoring our business performance. And you're right, particularly when you normalize for the currency impacts that growth was in a healthy zone. So I want to just continue to stress that FX has been really volatile, and that's going to continue to impact the growth rate. So definitely look at the constant currency growth rates over time.

    是的,當然。所以,我的意思是,目前的RPO(收入點差)是監控我們業務績效的一個非常重要的指標。您說得對,尤其是在剔除匯率影響後,成長確實處於健康水準。所以我想再次強調,匯率波動非常劇烈,而且這種波動會持續影響成長率。因此,一定要注意以固定匯率計算的成長率。

  • Also, the timing and volume of our EBAs impacts the growth rate period-to-period. And so sometimes what you see is that when we have large cohorts of our EBAs coming up for renewal, it tends to be back-end loaded in our fiscal years and most often in our Q4, we start to see growth impacts as the year progresses, in many cases, deceleration Q1 to Q3 that would tick back up as those cohorts for EBAs come back up for renewal.

    此外,我們的企業協議 (EBA) 的簽訂時間和數量也會影響各時期的成長率。因此,有時我們會看到,當大量企業協議即將續約時,續約工作往往會集中在財年的後半段,通常是在第四季。隨著時間的推移,我們會開始看到成長受到影響,很多情況下,第一季到第三季會出現成長放緩,但隨著這些企業協議再次續簽,成長速度又會回升。

  • So growth rate should tick back up over time, given consistent historical -- given patterns consistent with our historical patterns. But again, remember the constant currency has just been a zinger that's going to impact growth rates for quite a while here. So -- but it is an important metric for us, and we monitor it closely.

    因此,鑑於歷史趨勢與我們以往的模式一致,成長率應該會隨著時間的推移而回升。但再次強調,匯率波動目前對成長率的影響相當大,而且這種影響會在未來一段時間內持續存在。所以,儘管如此,它仍然是我們關注的重要指標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jason Celino of KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Jason Celino。

  • Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

    Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2 quick ones. So when we look at the fourth quarter guidance, it looks like you'll exit the year at 8% growth at the midpoint, pretty big decel from third quarter. I guess what is the FX headwind built into here? And are there any other factors that we should think about for Q4?

    就問兩個簡單的問題。我們來看第四季的業績指引,你們預期全年成長率中位數為8%,比第三季大幅下降。我想問一下,匯率波動帶來的不利影響有多大?第四季還有其他需要考慮的因素嗎?

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So Jason, the biggest impact is currency. We've seen a growing currency headwind during the year, and that's gradually showing up in the growth rates as the year progresses. It's about a 3-point headwind in Q4. It was a 1-point headwind in Q3 and was neutral in the tailwind at the beginning of the year. So you can see that it's gradually having a significant impact on our growth rate. That's the biggest driver of the implied growth rate that you're talking about. Also, to a lesser extent -- but Andrew did mention that we saw a modest deceleration in our new business, particularly in Europe during Q3, that does have a slight follow-on impact to revenue in Q4.

    是的。傑森,最大的影響因素是匯率。我們看到今年匯率波動帶來的不利影響日益加劇,隨著時間的推移,這種不利影響也逐漸反映在成長率上。第四季匯率波動造成了約3個百分點的不利影響。第三季為1個百分點,年初時匯率波動對成長率的影響為中性。因此,你可以看到匯率波動逐漸對我們的成長率產生顯著影響。這就是你提到的隱含成長率的最大驅動因素。此外,安德魯也提到,我們在第三季看到新業務成長略有放緩,尤其是在歐洲,這在一定程度上也對第四季的收入產生了一定的後續影響。

  • Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

    Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then the last multiyear appetite, it sounds like, to some extent, some of this is macro related. I guess where do you see that dynamic most prevalent? Was it with your larger customers, your smaller customers, international versus domestic? Just trying to understand kind of the puts and takes.

    好的,太好了。至於您提到的多年需求,聽起來在某種程度上與宏觀經濟有關。我想問的是,您認為這種動態在哪些方面最為顯著?是在您的大客戶、小客戶,還是國際客戶與國內客戶之間?我只是想了解其中的利弊。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. It tends to be larger deal sizes, not surprisingly. I think that when our customers start to exhibit cash conservation behavior, that behavior does tend to be more prevalent with some of the larger deal sizes. And remember, they're still signing multiyear contracts, they're just signing multiyear contracts and asking for annual billings, which for those larger deals, we are going to accommodate while we continue to invest in the back-office infrastructure to be able to handle the totality of the multiyear base with annual billings at scale.

    是的。不出所料,這種情況往往出現在交易規模較大的交易中。我認為,當我們的客戶開始採取節省現金的策略時,這種策略在一些規模較大的交易中更為普遍。請記住,他們仍然簽訂的是多年期合約,只不過他們要求按年結算。對於這些規模較大的交易,我們會滿足他們的要求,同時我們也會繼續投資後台基礎設施,以便能夠大規模地處理所有多年期合約的年度結算。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Keith Weiss of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

  • Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

  • The comments on the stable renewal rates, and I'd just like to dig into the expansion motion. And it's not like never tension stayed within the historical range. But curious if you're seeing any changes on just the expansion behavior with the shift in macro? And should we expect a similar range into 2024? Is there any risk that we could fall outside of those ranges just given the broader macro headwinds?

    關於穩定的續約率,我想深入探討擴張的趨勢。當然,張力並非一直都保持在歷史範圍內。但我很好奇,隨著宏觀經濟的變化,您是否觀察到擴張行為本身有任何變化?我們是否應該預期2024年也會維持類似的區間?考慮到更廣泛的宏觀不利因素,是否存在超出這些區間的風險?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • So with regards to retention rates, look, retention rates continue to be strong and maintain steadiness. I think we're going to continue to see us steadiness in the next year. The one area where we expect to see softness with macro headwinds is at the low end of our market. So the low end of the market is low ASPs, but high volume. So the retention rates can move around on a volume basis when there's headwinds like this. But generally speaking, broadly across our business, we see retention rates holding up. Our products are mission-critical to what our customers do. They need them. But at the low end of our business, we'll probably see some headwinds there, but they won't be material to the larger business.

    所以,關於用戶留存率,目前來看,留存率依然強勁且保持穩定。我認為明年我們將繼續保持這種穩定狀態。我們預期受宏觀經濟不利因素影響,市場低端部分可能會出現疲軟。低端市場指的是平均售價低但銷量高的市場。因此,當遇到類似這樣的不利因素時,留存率可能會因銷售量而有所波動。但整體而言,從我們整個業務來看,用戶留存率依然堅挺。我們的產品對客戶的業務至關重要,他們離不開這些產品。不過,在低端市場,我們可能會遇到一些不利因素,但這些不利因素對整體業務的影響並不大。

  • Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

    Deborah L. Clifford - Executive VP & CFO

  • I would just add that our net revenue retention rate was comfortably within the target range of 100% to 110%. And in the short term, our expectation is that it will stay in that range.

    我還要補充一點,我們的淨收入留存率完全處於100%到110%的目標範圍內。短期內,我們預期這一比例將維持在這個範圍內。

  • Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then just following up on kind of the comments about the strong balance sheet and willing to invest. Wanted to see if you're seeing any change in behavior in the competitive landscape, especially from some companies that may not have as strong a balance sheet? So any changes you're seeing in the behavior overall?

    好的。接下來我想補充一下關於公司強勁的資產負債表和投資意願的評論。我想了解一下,您是否觀察到競爭格局中存在任何行為變化,尤其是一些資產負債表可能不如公司強勁的公司?也就是說,您觀察到整體行為方面有任何變化嗎?

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • So with regard to -- I just want to give a clarification on that question. With regards to the competitive environment in what way in terms of how that -- how does it -- just give me a clarification on your question a little bit there. I didn't quite understand it.

    關於這個問題——我想澄清一下。關於競爭環境,具體來說,它是如何運作的? ——請您再詳細解釋一下您的問題。我不太明白。

  • Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

    Keith Weiss - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, sure. So you guys have a strong balance sheet kind of willing to invest in the current environment, just even though there may be some macro headwinds. But you likely have some peers out there that may not be as well funded or has strong balance sheets. So curious if you're just seeing any sort of changes in behavior across the competitive landscape.

    是的,當然。你們的資產負債表很穩健,即使面臨一些宏觀經濟逆風,也願意在當前環境下進行投資。但你們可能也有一些同業資金不如你們雄厚,或是資產負債表不夠穩健。所以我很好奇,你們是否觀察到競爭格局中存在任何行為上的變化。

  • Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew Anagnost - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Okay. Okay. Good. I just wanted to make sure that I was.. So we're in better shape than some of our competitors that are not profitable. In certain situations, people are going to be chasing, I think, long-term things that kind of boost revenue or pull revenue forward. They'll be doing customer unfriendly things to try to pull things forward. We're not in that position right now, especially in certain types of sectors. We're maintaining customer-friendly practices, we're focusing on the long term. We're investing in the long term.

    是的。好的。好的。很好。我只是想確認一下…所以我們的狀況比一些不獲利的競爭對手好。在某些情況下,人們會追求一些能夠提升收入或提前實現收入的長期策略。他們會採取一些對客戶不友善的措施來試圖加快進度。我們目前還沒有到那種地步,尤其是在某些產業。我們堅持以客戶為中心的做法,我們專注於長期發展。我們正在進行長期投資。

  • And that will actually provide competitive advantage as we move out of the slowdown. It's always great to be in a position to invest during a slowdown and to not have to pull short-term levers to try to achieve profitability, maintain profitability or get in the way of things. We'll probably have more dry powder for inorganic activity than some of our competitors as we head through this. So yes, strong balance sheet actually helps us invest ahead of the curve while we go through these things. So I'm pretty confident that we're ahead of the game in a lot of places.

    而這實際上將為我們走出經濟放緩期提供競爭優勢。在經濟放緩時期,能夠進行投資而無需採取短期措施來追求盈利、維持盈利或阻礙發展,總是件好事。在應對當前情勢的過程中,我們用於非內生性成長活動的資金儲備可能比一些競爭對手更充足。因此,強勁的資產負債表確實有助於我們在應對這些挑戰時搶佔先機進行投資。所以我相當有信心,我們在很多方面都處於領先地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That is all the time that we do have for question. So I'd like to turn the call back over to Simon Mays-Smith for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。提問時間到此結束。現在我想把電話轉回給西蒙·梅斯-史密斯,請他作總結發言。

  • Simon Mays-Smith - VP of IR

    Simon Mays-Smith - VP of IR

  • Thanks, everyone, for joining us. I hope the call was useful. For those of you that celebrated happy Thanksgiving and happy holidays, and we'll look forward to catching up with you again at conferences and in the new year at our fourth quarter earnings. Thanks very much.

    感謝各位的參與。希望這次通話對大家有幫助。祝各位感恩節快樂,假期愉快!我們期待在會議上以及新年第四季財報發布會上再次與大家見面。非常感謝!

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

    謝謝大家。女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。祝您有美好的一天。