Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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（技術難題）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to David Gennarelli, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係高級總監大衛詹納雷利。先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our second quarter of fiscal year 2018. On the line is Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor.

謝謝接線生。午安.感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們2018財年第二季的業績。電話那頭是我們的執行長 Andrew Anagnost 和我們的財務長 Scott Herren。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，您也可以在 autodesk.com/investor 上收聽電話會議的錄音回放。

As noted in our press release, we have published our prepared remarks on the website in advance of this call. Those remarks are intended to serve in place of extended formal comments, and we will not repeat them on this call.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們已提前在網站上公佈了我們準備好的演講稿。這些發言旨在代替冗長的正式發言，我們將在本次電話會議上不再贅述。

During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the anticipated future performance of the company such as our guidance for the third quarter and full year fiscal '18; our full -- our long-term financial model guidance; the factors we use to estimate our guidance, including currency headwinds, our maintenance to subscription transition, ARPS, customer value, cost structure, our market opportunities and strategies and trends for various products, geographies and industries.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就未來事件和公司預期未來業績發表前瞻性聲明，例如我們對 2018 財年第三季度和全年業績的指引；我們完整的長期財務模型指引；我們用於估算指引的因素，包括匯率不利因素、我們從維護服務向訂閱服務的過渡、平均每筆收入 (ARPS)、客戶價值、成本針對

We caution you that such statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us and that actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, specifically our Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2017, our Form 10-Q for the period ended April 30, 2017, and our current reports on Form 8-K, including the Form 8-K filed with today's press release and prepared remarks.

我們提醒您，此類聲明反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。請參閱我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是我們 2017 財年的 10-K 表格、截至 2017 年 4 月 30 日的 10-Q 表格以及我們當前的 8-K 表格報告，包括今天隨新聞稿和準備好的發言稿一起提交的 8-K 表格。

Those documents contain and identify important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those contained in our forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information.

這些文件包含並指明了可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果之間存在差異的重要風險和其他因素。本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述均以今日為準。如果今天之後重播或回顧此通話，通話期間提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。

Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will provide guidance on today's call but will not provide any further guidance or updates on our performance during the quarter unless we do so in a public forum.

Autodesk公司聲明不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上提供業績指引，但除非在公開場合，否則不會提供任何關於本季業績的進一步指引或更新。

During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results is provided in today's press release, prepared remarks and on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance. Unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison.

電話會議期間，我們也將討論非GAAP財務指標。這些非GAAP指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。我們已在今天的新聞稿、準備好的發言稿以及我們網站的投資者關係部分提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的調節表。在討論財務表現時，我們將引用一些數字或成長變化。除非另有說明，否則每個此類參考數據均代表同比比較。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我想把電話交給安德魯。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝你，戴夫。

Our strong Q2 results are a continuation of the broad-based strength across all subscription plans and types and geographies that we experienced last quarter. As we demonstrated over the past several quarters, we are executing well and making real progress on our 2 major initiatives: growing lifetime customer value by moving customers to subscription; and expanding our market opportunity with increasing adoption of our cloud-based solutions. These consistent results increase our confidence in the model transition and our ability to achieve our goals.

我們強勁的第二季業績延續了上季所有訂閱計畫、類型和地區的全面強勁勢頭。正如我們在過去幾季所展示的那樣，我們在兩項主要舉措上執行良好，並取得了真正的進展：透過引導客戶訂閱來提高客戶終身價值；以及透過不斷推廣我們的雲端解決方案來擴大市場機會。這些一致的結果增強了我們對模式轉型和實現目標的信心。

There are several areas to highlight in Q2, including the fact that total ARR grew 23% at constant currency; that we added 153,000 total subscriptions; that recurring revenue has increased to 91% of total revenue; that we've overachieved on revenue and we've coupled that with strong spend control, which has led to better-than-expected EPS performance. In addition, the maintenance-to-subscription program or what I'll refer to later as M2S, is off to a great start. Now let's take a closer look at our Q2 performance.

第二季度有幾個方面值得關注，包括以固定匯率計算，年度經常性收入總額增長了 23%；新增訂閱用戶 15.3 萬；經常性收入佔總收入的比例上升至 91%；收入超出預期，同時我們嚴格控制支出，從而實現了超出預期的每股收益。此外，維護轉訂閱計劃（我稍後會稱之為 M2S）也取得了良好的開端。現在讓我們仔細看看我們第二季的業績。

The trends we're seeing in annualized recurring revenue are clear signals that the transition is working. Subscription plan ARR nearly doubled on a constant currency basis, driven by the strong uptake of all of our subscription plan offerings. Subscription plan ARR now represents 43% of total ARR, and we still anticipate it will become the majority component by the end of this fiscal year.

我們從年度經常性收入中看到的趨勢清楚地表明，轉型正在發揮作用。受所有訂閱計劃產品的強勁需求推動，訂閱計劃的年度經常性收入（ARR）以固定匯率計算幾乎翻了一番。訂閱計劃 ARR 目前佔總 ARR 的 43%，我們仍然預計到本財年結束時，它將成為主要組成部分。

I'd also like to share with you another piece of data that really provides us with confidence in our ability to grow ARR going forward. If we isolate ARR growth rates for AutoCAD LT and our animation products, which are further along into the transition than the rest of the products, we saw total ARR growth in the mid-30% range for these products. A year ago, the growth rates for these products were similar to those we're reporting for our overall business. The same effect can be seen in our reported revenue for these products, and it's a great leading indicator as we continue to move through the transition.

我還想和大家分享另一項數據，這項數據讓我們對未來 ARR 成長的能力充滿信心。如果我們單獨分析 AutoCAD LT 和動畫產品的 ARR 成長率（這些產品的轉型進度比其他產品更快），我們發現這些產品的總 ARR 成長率在 30% 左右。一年前，這些產品的成長率與我們目前報告的整體業務成長率相似。從我們公佈的這些產品的收入中也可以看出同樣的效果，這是一個很好的領先指標，因為我們將繼續推動轉型。

We added 270,000 subscription plan subs in Q2, led by continued strong adoption of product subscription. 63,000 of these subscriptions were generated from our maintenance to subscription or M2S program. Even when normalizing for M2S, total product subscriptions more than doubled year-over-year with triple-digit growth in each major geography, including emerging countries.

第二季度，我們新增了 27 萬訂閱用戶，這主要得益於產品訂閱模式的持續強勁成長。其中 63,000 個訂閱是透過我們的維護轉訂閱 (M2S) 計劃產生的。即使將 M2S 納入正常範圍，產品訂閱總量也同比增長超過一倍，在包括新興國家在內的每個主要地區都實現了三位數的增長。

New customers continued to make up a meaningful portion of product subscription additions and represented close to 30% of the mix for the quarter. These new customers come from a mix of market expansion, growth and emerging, converting unlicensed users and people who have been using an alternate design tool.

新客戶繼續在產品訂閱新增用戶中佔據重要份額，本季佔比接近 30%。這些新客戶來自市場擴張、成長和新興市場，以及轉換了未授權使用者和使用其他設計工具的使用者。

Some of you noticed that we started out Q3 -- our Q3 promotion targeting legacy users a couple of weeks early. Now this led to some conspiracy theories about our Q2 performance. You should know that the timing of these global promotions is set months in advance. Our rationale for starting early was the result of our experience from Q3 of last year. Starting the promo a couple of weeks early allows for greater absorption of our communications to our partners and customers, which tends to take longer in the summer months due to vacations. The mission was to get the promo details out to the channel rather than driving subs in Q2. And as expected, an immaterial number of subs, about 2,000, were generated from this promo in Q2, but we positioned the promo for success here in Q3.

你們當中有些人已經注意到，我們提前幾週開始了第三季的促銷活動——我們的第三季促銷活動針對的是老用戶。這引發了一些關於我們第二季業績的陰謀論。您應該知道，這些全球促銷活動的具體時間安排都是提前幾個月就確定好的。我們之所以提前啟動，是因為我們吸取了去年第三季的經驗教訓。提前幾週開始促銷活動，可以讓我們的合作夥伴和客戶更好地吸收我們的訊息，而夏季由於假期，這往往需要更長時間。這次任務是向頻道推送促銷詳情，而不是在第二季推動訂閱用戶成長。正如預期的那樣，第二季度透過這項促銷活動獲得的訂閱用戶數量微乎其微，大約只有 2,000 人，但我們已為第三季的成功做好了準備。

Subscription plan subs also had strong contribution from our new enterprise customers via enterprise business agreements or EBAs. As expected, our net EBA sub adds were not nearly as much as the seasonal strong Q1. EBAs with our large enterprise customers have been a successful component of our transition, leading to both increased subscriptions and account value while providing increased flexibility for our customers. This increased flexibility has led many of our EBA customers to increase their usage as they adjust to the new licensing system. This is a win-win situation, but it does create a short-term drag on ARPS.

訂閱方案的訂閱用戶也主要來自我們透過企業業務協議 (EBA) 簽訂的新創企業客戶。正如預期的那樣，我們的 EBA 淨新增用戶數遠不及季節性強勁的第一季。與我們的大型企業客戶簽訂的企業業務協議 (EBA) 是我們轉型過程中一個成功的組成部分，它既提高了訂閱量和帳戶價值，也為我們的客戶提供了更大的靈活性。這種更大的靈活性促使我們的許多 EBA 客戶在適應新的授權系統的過程中增加了使用量。這是一個雙贏的局面，但短期內會對平均收益造成拖累。

For example, if we isolate just the population of EBA customers from June 2016, the monthly average user for -- usage for these accounts increased 10% in the last year. However, we don't see a corresponding revenue increase until a customer does a true-up or uplift upon renewal. This year, we have the opportunity to renew the first wave of Token Flex EBA contracts that we signed 3 years ago. It's early days so far, but we're seeing, on average, that contract size is increasing by over 30%.

例如，如果我們只統計 2016 年 6 月的 EBA 客戶群，這些帳戶的月平均使用者使用量在過去一年中成長了 10%。但是，只有當客戶在續約時進行補足差額或升級時，我們才能看到相應的收入成長。今年，我們有機會續約 3 年前簽署的第一批 Token Flex EBA 合約。目前還處於早期階段，但我們看到，平均而言，合約規模正在成長超過 30%。

In Q2, we renewed 2 very large EBA deals worth over $10 million each. In one of these deals with a European-based global engineering consulting firm, the renewal contract value was 150% greater than the original value. This company's engineers are spending roughly 5 million hours a year using Autodesk products, and the EBA contract gives them access to our entire product portfolio.

第二季度，我們續簽了兩份金額均超過 1,000 萬美元的大型 EBA 合約。其中一項與總部位於歐洲的全球工程顧問公司達成的交易中，續約合約的金額比原合約金額高出 150%。這家公司的工程師每年花費約 500 萬小時使用 Autodesk 產品，而 EBA 合約使他們能夠存取我們所有的產品組合。

The third component of our subscription plan subs is our cloud products. This is the TAM expansion part of our transition, and we are extending our leadership in the cloud. Total subscriptions grew by 200% and continue to be driven by BIM 360, our construction management and collaboration tool, followed by Fusion, our cloud play-based design and manufacturing tool and opportunity, which is where our cloud-based BIM 360 has gained an early leadership position.

我們訂閱方案的第三個組成部分是我們的雲端產品。這是我們轉型過程中 TAM 擴張的一部分，我們將進一步鞏固我們在雲端領域的領先地位。訂閱總量成長了 200%，主要得益於我們的施工管理和協作工具 BIM 360，其次是我們的雲端設計和製造工具 Fusion，而我們的雲端 BIM 360 也已在 Fusion 中佔據了早期領先地位。

We're utilizing the cloud to allow our customers to take their BIM models all the way into the field, giving building owners and general contractors a digital platform for collaboration, coordination and visibility. This is a really big deal because it's something that has been sorely lacking in the past.

我們正在利用雲端技術，讓我們的客戶能夠將他們的 BIM 模型帶到現場，為建築物業主和總承包商提供一個用於協作、協調和視覺化的數位化平台。這意義重大，因為這是我們過去一直嚴重缺乏的。

Now when it comes to the world of building, we have a powerful brand and a powerful reputation. We're making significant penetration with the biggest general contractors in the world and with building owners and doing this by driving the value of the building information model into their project ecosystem. The result is we're both expanding BIM 360 deals after successful initial implementations and we're signing new deals with companies and organizations that we've never worked with previously.

如今，在建築領域，我們擁有強大的品牌和良好的聲譽。我們正在與全球最大的總承包商和建築業主建立密切的合作關係，而實現這一目標的途徑是將建築資訊模型的價值融入他們的專案生態系統中。結果是，在成功完成初步實施後，我們雙方都在擴大 BIM 360 交易，我們正在與以前從未合作過的公司和組織簽署新的交易。

Building owners are starting to mandate BIM 360 to gain competitive advantage and project efficiency. One Q2 deal was an international airport that is investing in thousands of BIM 360 subscriptions as part of a multibillion-dollar renovation project. Their goal is to use BIM on all suitable projects to inform and enhance future facilities management. They even wrote BIM 360 into the process for all future development projects at the airport.

為了獲得競爭優勢和提高專案效率，建築業主開始強制要求使用 BIM 360。第二季的一筆交易是一家國際機場，該機場正在投資數千份 BIM 360 訂閱，作為一項數十億美元的翻新項目的一部分。他們的目標是在所有合適的專案中應用 BIM，以指導和改善未來的設施管理。他們甚至將 BIM 360 納入了機場未來所有開發案的流程中。

Another great example is with a general contractor that influenced a large state university and a large municipality to write BIM 360 requirements into their specifications and permitting process. This is the kind of success that builds on itself over time.

另一個很好的例子是一位總承包商影響了一所大型州立大學和一個大型市政當局，將 BIM 360 要求寫入其規範和許可流程。這種成功是隨著時間的推移而不斷累積的。

Now partially offsetting the growth in subscription plan subs was the expected decline in maintenance plan subs. As we've said in the past, we expect to see ongoing declines in maintenance plan subscriptions, and the rate of decline will vary on the number of maintenance plan subscriptions that come up for renewal, the renewal rate, and the pace of the M2S program.

現在，訂閱計劃用戶數量的增長被預期中的維護計劃用戶數量的下降部分抵消了。正如我們過去所說，我們預計維護計畫訂閱量將持續下降，下降速度將取決於需要續訂的維護計畫訂閱量、續訂率以及 M2S 計畫的進度。

A little more than half of the decline in maintenance subs was the result of the fast start to the M2S program. In fact, nearly 1/4 of all maintenance renewal opportunities migrated to subscription. Of those that migrated, nearly 10% upgraded from an individual product to a higher-value industry collections.

維護潛艇數量下降的一半多一點是由於 M2S 計劃的快速啟動造成的。事實上，近四分之一的維護續訂機會都轉移到了訂閱模式。在遷移的用戶中，近 10% 的用戶從單一產品升級到更高價值的產業套裝。

M2S is yielding some early data that is very encouraging and very interesting. I'd like to share a few other points with you. Specifically, some customers are doing partial conversions of their maintenance fees, but if you look at it overall, the participating accounts are growing their total subscriptions and growing their spend with Autodesk. In other words, accounts that participate in M2S are purchasing net new product and cloud subs, and we're seeing this behavior across all geographies. Keep in mind that it reflects only 6 weeks' worth of data, but these early figures are better than expected and bode well for the next few quarters of execution.

M2S 目前已得出一些非常令人鼓舞且非常有趣的早期數據。我還想和你們分享幾點其他內容。具體來說，一些客戶正在部分轉換他們的維護費用，但從整體上看，參與的帳戶的總訂閱量和在 Autodesk 的支出正在增長。換句話說，參與 M2S 的帳戶正在購買新的產品和雲端訂閱，而且我們在所有地區都看到了這種現象。請記住，這僅反映了 6 週的數據，但這些早期數據好於預期，預示著未來幾季的執行情況良好。

As I've said, we'd like these maintenance customers to move sooner rather than later as product subscriptions provide the greatest value and increased flexibility, support and access to our cloud products. Moving to a single model makes the most sense and will immensely simplify our business and how our customers transact with Autodesk.

正如我所說，我們希望這些維護客戶盡快遷移到產品訂閱模式，因為產品訂閱能夠提供最大的價值，並提高靈活性、支援和存取我們雲端產品的權限。採用單一模型是最合理的選擇，將大大簡化我們的業務以及客戶與 Autodesk 的交易方式。

Now let's talk a little bit about ARPS. For the third consecutive quarter, we experienced a small sequential increase in total ARPS. It's worth repeating that there are many things that will influence the short-term performance of ARPS, including product mix, geo mix and timing.

現在我們來簡單談談ARPS。連續第三個季度，我們的總平均每筆交易額 (ARPS) 實現了小幅環比增長。值得重申的是，有許多因素會影響 ARPS 的短期表現，包括產品組合、地理組合和時機。

Another example is that the M2S program is having a near-term impact on ARPS. M2S is having a positive impact on maintenance due to the price increase for those that stayed on maintenance and a negative impact on subscription plan ARPS due to the discount offered for conversion. Product subscription ARPS grew year-over-year, but if we normalize for the effective M2S, it would have grown about 10% year-over-year and had its third consecutive quarter of sequential growth.

另一個例子是，M2S 計畫對 ARPS 產生了近期影響。由於維護費用上漲，M2S 對維護業務產生了積極影響；由於轉換計劃可享受折扣，M2S 對訂閱計劃 ARPS 產生了負面影響。產品訂閱 ARPS 同比增長，但如果按有效 M2S 進行標準化，則同比增長約 10%，並且連續第三個季度實現環比增長。

As expected, subscription plan ARPS is being negatively impacted in the near term by cloud subs as well as the increased usage of EBA accounts. I spoke about these influences at Investor Day last year, so it shouldn't be surprising that the more successful we are with cloud products and increased usage with our EBAs, the more it will be a near-term drag on ARPS.

正如預期的那樣，訂閱計劃 ARPS 在短期內受到雲端訂閱以及 EBA 帳戶使用量的增加的負面影響。我去年在投資者日上談到了這些影響因素，因此，隨著我們在雲端產品方面取得更大的成功，以及我們的 EBA 使用量不斷增加，短期內 ARPS 就越會受到拖累，這並不奇怪。

Of course, the flip side of faster-than-expected M2S conversion is that the more people that take the offer here in FY '18, the smaller the price increases we will realize in FY '19. We'll moderate that impact by continuing to focus on the upsell to collections. Having said all that, we remain confident that overall ARPS will be positively influenced going forward by less discounting and promotions to our legacy users, a price increase for maintenance customers and the migration to higher-value products. We still expect to see ARPS inflect up by the end of the year.

當然，M2S 轉換速度快於預期也有其弊端，那就是在 2018 財年接受此優惠的人越多，我們在 2019 財年實現的價格上漲幅度就越小。我們將透過繼續專注於向收藏品追加銷售來減輕這種影響。綜上所述，我們仍然相信，隨著對老用戶的折扣和促銷活動減少、維護客戶的價格上漲以及向更高價值產品的遷移，整體 ARPS 將在未來受到積極影響。我們仍預計到年底ARPS將出現回升。

Now I'll turn it over to Scott for a few more details on the financials.

現在我將把發言權交給史考特，讓他介紹一下財務方面的更多細節。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝你，安德魯。

Driving more users to subscription aligns with another one of the transition-related initiatives, which is to drive more direct business. Total direct revenue for the second quarter was 29% of total revenue. That's up from 25% in Q2 last year and just 20% 2 years ago. We continue to generate strong growth in the volume of business we're doing with our large enterprise customers, and we're experiencing exceptional growth with our eStore.

推動更多用戶訂閱與另一項轉型相關舉措一致，即推動更多直接業務。第二季直接收入佔總收入的 29%。這一比例高於去年第二季的 25%，也高於兩年前的 20%。我們與大型企業客戶的業務量持續強勁成長，我們的網路商店也取得了非凡的成長。

Over 30% of our North American product subscriptions have been generated through our eStore. We expect to continue to meaningfully grow both our direct-to-enterprise and our e-store business as we go forward.

我們北美地區超過 30% 的產品訂閱都是透過我們的網路商店產生的。我們預計未來我們的企業直銷業務和網上商店業務都將繼續顯著成長。

We're pleased by the broad-based strength we're experiencing from a geographic and product family perspective. Each major geography, including emerging markets, reported sequential revenue growth. And for the second consecutive quarter, we experienced a marked improvement in our performance in Japan, an encouraging sign as we've made some changes there. We also experienced sequential revenue growth in each product family.

從地理和產品系列角度來看，我們對目前所展現的廣泛優勢感到滿意。包括新興市場在內的所有主要地區均實現了環比營收成長。連續第二個季度，我們在日本的業績有了顯著改善，這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，因為我們在那裡進行了一些調整。我們每個產品系列的收入也都實現了環比增長。

Moving to spend management. We've been able to execute and drive results while firmly controlling our spend growth. Non-GAAP spend increased by 1% in Q2 as expected. We remain committed to keeping spend flat this year and next year, although we are seeing an increased FX headwind to our expenses. We're achieving this through targeted divestments and reallocation of those dollars to initiatives that drive our transition.

轉向支出管理。我們能夠在有效控制支出成長的同時，實現並取得預期成果。第二季非GAAP支出成長1%，符合預期。儘管我們看到外匯波動對我們的支出構成越來越大的不利影響，但我們仍致力於在今年和明年保持支出不變。我們透過有針對性的資產剝離和將這些資金重新分配到推動我們轉型的各項措施中來實現這一目標。

Looking at the balance sheet, reported deferred revenue grew 17% against a tough compare last year when we had the end-of-sale event for the last perpetual licenses of suites. We also stopped selling multiyear maintenance renewals earlier this year in conjunction with the M2S program, which adds to the headwind.

從資產負債表來看，報告的遞延收入成長了 17%，而去年由於我們停止銷售最後一批永久授權套件，業績年比大幅下滑。今年早些時候，我們也配合 M2S 計劃停止銷售多年維護續約服務，這無疑加劇了不利局面。

Unbilled deferred revenue increased by $33 million sequentially, which would've added another 2 percentage points of growth to deferred revenue. Total unbilled deferred revenue now stands at $63 million, and we expect it to continue to grow meaningfully as we move more of our enterprise customers to annual billing terms.

未開票遞延收入環比增加 3,300 萬美元，將使遞延收入再增加 2 個百分點。目前未開票遞延收入總額為 6,300 萬美元，隨著我們逐步將更多企業客戶轉為年度結算條款，我們預計這一數字將繼續顯著增長。

I'll also note that during the second quarter, we issued $500 million in 10-year notes, taking advantage of the current low interest rate environment, and we've redeemed $400 million of debt that was due to mature in December.

我還要指出，在第二季度，我們利用當前的低利率環境發行了 5 億美元的 10 年期債券，並且我們已經贖回了 4 億美元將於 12 月到期的債務。

That's a good lead into our capital allocation strategy. We repurchased 1.2 million shares in Q2 for a total of $119 million. That averages out to $102.71 per share. During the quarter, we rebalanced our buying strategy by putting more weight on opportunistic versus systematic buying, and we'll continue to make adjustments to this program as we go forward, recognizing our ongoing commitment to share buybacks.

這為我們的資本配置策略奠定了良好的基礎。我們在第二季回購了 120 萬股股票，總計 1.19 億美元。平均下來每股為 102.71 美元。本季度，我們調整了購買策略，更加重視機會性購買而非系統性購買，我們將繼續對該計劃進行調整，同時秉持我們對股票回購的持續承諾。

Turning to our outlook. Our view of the global economic conditions remains consistent with our view over the past several quarters, with most of the mature markets performing relatively well and little change in emerging markets. As we look at our outlook for Q3 and the second half of the year, we expect seasonal patterns generally consistent with the last 2 years. As I mentioned, we've made some targeted divestment that allowed us to reallocate that money, but it also created a slight headwind to reported revenue, both of which are incorporated in our annual guidance.

展望未來。我們對全球經濟情勢的看法與過去幾季的看法保持一致，大多數成熟市場表現相對較好，新興市場變化不大。展望第三季和下半年，我們預期季節性模式將與過去兩年基本一致。正如我之前提到的，我們進行了一些有針對性的資產剝離，這使我們能夠重新分配資金，但也對報告的收入造成了輕微的不利影響，這兩點都已納入我們的年度預期。

Q3 will be the first quarter where the year-over-year revenue comparisons are apples-to-apples comparing back to our first quarter of subscription-only sales. But remember that our Q3 fiscal '17 results included $38 million of licensed backlog that rolled over from the end of sale of Suites perpetual licenses in Q2 '17. Normalizing for that, the midpoint of our Q3 revenue guidance range represents year-on-year growth of 13% as reported revenues now begin to inflect upward.

第三季度將是第一個可以與去年同期收入進行直接比較的季度，因為我們將與第一個僅提供訂閱服務的季度進行直接比較。但請記住，我們 2017 財年第三季的業績包括 3,800 萬美元的許可積壓訂單，這些訂單是從 2017 年第二季停止銷售 Suite 永久許可證而結轉過來的。考慮到這一點，我們第三季營收預期範圍的中點代表著年增 13%，因為報告營收現在開始出現上升趨勢。

Based on our year-to-date performance, we're increasing the midpoint of our guidance range for revenue, and we increased the range for net subscription adds for the fiscal year.

根據我們今年迄今的業績，我們提高了收入預期範圍的中點，並提高了本財年淨新增訂閱用戶數的範圍。

Overall, our strong first half results increase our confidence that the transition is working for our customers and our partners. It also sets us up for success for the rest of the year and reinforces our conviction in our fiscal '20 targets. We've executed well over the past several quarters, and we're looking forward to building on this success as we progress through the rest of fiscal '18 and work toward our fiscal '20 goals and beyond.

整體而言，我們上半年的強勁業績增強了我們對轉型對客戶和合作夥伴有利的信心。這也為我們今年剩餘時間的成功奠定了基礎，並增強了我們對 2020 財年目標的信心。在過去的幾個季度裡，我們執行得非常出色，我們期待在 2018 財年剩餘的時間裡，繼續保持這種成功勢頭，並朝著 2020 財年及以後的目標努力。

Before we open it up for questions, I'm going to turn the call back over to Andrew for a few closing comments.

在正式開始提問環節之前，我將把電話交還給安德魯，請他做幾點總結發言。

Thanks, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Obviously, one big change this past quarter was that I was appointed CEO. I'm humbled by the board's decision, and I want to thank my friend and longtime associate, Amar Hanspal, for all his work and dedication to Autodesk over the past 20 years. Secondly, I want to assure you that we remain fully committed to the FY '20 goals around ARR, subs and cash flow that we put forth 2 years ago.

顯然，上個季度最大的變化之一就是我被任命為執行長。我對董事會的決定深感榮幸，並要感謝我的朋友和長期合作夥伴 Amar Hanspal 在過去 20 年為 Autodesk 所做的一切工作和奉獻。其次，我想向你們保證，我們仍然完全致力於實現兩年前提出的 2020 財年 ARR、訂閱用戶和現金流目標。

Finally, while the near-term and long-term goals remain clear, I thought I'd share with you my focus areas for driving success and achieving these goals. First, we are hyper-focused on enhancing the subscriber experience and delivering more value to our customers. It has to be frictionless for our customers to manage their subscription with Autodesk, and it has to be obvious to them what is driving value from subscription.

最後，雖然近期和長期目標仍然明確，但我想和大家分享我為推動成功和實現這些目標所關注的重點領域。首先，我們高度重視提升使用者體驗，為客戶創造更多價值。必須確保我們的客戶能夠輕鬆管理他們在 Autodesk 的訂閱，並且必須讓他們清楚地了解訂閱的價值。

Second, we are going to continue investing in our own digital infrastructure and creating opportunities for our customers to transact and engage directly with us. We've made nice progress in this area over the past couple of years, and I want to further enhance and accelerate these advancements.

其次，我們將繼續投資於我們自己的數位基礎設施，並為我們的客戶創造機會，讓他們能夠直接與我們進行交易和互動。過去幾年，我們在這一領域取得了不錯的進展，我希望進一步加強和加速這些進展。

Third, I am absolutely committed to winning the construction space and winning in the new world of digital manufacturing. The opportunity is enormous for Autodesk and our customers. We've done well to establish an early leadership position and we are not going to slow down.

第三，我絕對致力於贏得建築領域和數位製造新世界的成功。對於 Autodesk 和我們的客戶來說，這是一個巨大的機會。我們已經成功確立了早期領先地位，我們不會放慢腳步。

I hope that gives you a better idea of how I'm approaching my new job. The next era of Autodesk will not be defined by simply product or business innovation, but in their combination. We must excel at both, all in the service of our customers.

希望這能讓你更了解我對待新工作的態度。Autodesk 的下一個時代將不再僅僅由產品或業務創新來定義，而是由二者的結合來定義。我們必須在這兩方面都做到卓越，一切為了更好地服務我們的客戶。

I couldn't be more excited about the opportunity to lead such a great company, and I look forward to reporting on our progress as we go forward.

能夠領導這樣一家優秀的公司，我感到無比興奮，並期待在未來的工作中向大家報告我們的進展。

Operator, we'd now like to open the call up for questions.

接線員，現在我們開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer with Griffin Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer 的提問。

Two questions. One, to start longer term. Andrew, how reasonable is it to expect -- or when would you expect that your direct business would become the majority of the business and/or that the eStore would become the majority of the direct at any point so that, of course, you're having the requisite back office and infrastructure which you had just alluded to a moment ago? And secondly, you talked in your prepared remarks around large customer, EBA customer, usage and mix issues. Could you address that more broadly in terms of your wider customer base, in terms of what you're seeing so far, in terms of usage of products, and specifically, your confidence that, in fact, the mix will go more and more towards collections and stand-alone than we might have seen to date?

兩個問題。第一，從長遠來看。Andrew，您認為何時（或何時）您的直銷業務才能成為業務的大部分，或者電子商務商店才能成為直銷業務的大部分，以便您擁有剛才提到的必要的後台辦公和基礎設施，這樣的預期是否合理？其次，你在準備好的演講稿中談到了大客戶、EBA客戶、使用情況和組合問題。您能否從更廣泛的客戶群角度，就您目前所看到的、產品的使用情況，以及特別是您對未來產品組合將更多地採用套裝和獨立產品形式（而不是我們迄今為止所看到的）的信心，更廣泛地談談這個問題？

All right, Jay. So first, thank you. So let me address the first question, and then I'm going to ask for clarification on the second one. So with regard to the first question, I'm not going to give you a timeframe, but I will kind of bound the problem a little bit more for you. In terms of a steady state for us, it's probably more like a 50-50 split between our direct efforts and our partner efforts. And we think that's the right steady-state for us, not only from serving our customers well, but also basically from the structure of the business in terms of what the right kind of profitability mix is. Now when you look at that moving forward, the percent of the business that actually comes from direct high touch, the major account subs, probably won't change that much over time. All of that growth is going to come from the digital direct piece. So actually roughly speaking, digital direct and physical direct will split that 50% another 50-50, so you can kind of see a 25-25-50 type model for our business moving forward. Timeframe-wise, I don't want to give a timeframe for that, but it's definitely going to be over a relatively narrow time horizon. Now your second question, I just want to make sure I understood. You were asking what is the mix of usage within our EBA accounts. Or just clarify your question a little bit for me, so I make sure I answer the right question.

好的，傑伊。首先，謝謝。那麼，讓我先回答第一個問題，然後再請您澄清第二個問題。所以關於第一個問題，我不會給你一個時間期限，但我會幫你把問題的範圍縮小一些。就我們的穩定狀態而言，直接投入和合作夥伴投入的比例可能更接近 50/50。我們認為這對我們來說是正確的穩定狀態，不僅是為了更好地服務客戶，而且從業務結構的角度來看，這也是一種正確的獲利組合。現在展望未來，來自直接高接觸、大客戶訂閱的業務百分比，隨著時間的推移可能不會發生太大變化。所有這些增長都將來自數位直銷部分。所以實際上粗略地說，數位直銷和實體直銷將平分這 50%，再平分 50%，所以你可以看到我們未來的業務模式大致是 25-25-50。至於時間範圍，我不想給出具體時間，但肯定會在相對較短的時間範圍內。關於你的第二個問題，我想確認一下我是否理解正確。您詢問的是我們 EBA 帳戶的使用構成情況。或者您能不能稍微澄清一下您的問題，以便我確保回答的是正確的問題。

Sure. So you've, in the past, been able to track usage of the Suites, for example, because they were instrumented for that, and I imagine you should able to do the same now under subscriptions for all products, stand-alone and collections. The question is really twofold: one, how confident are you that customers are, in fact, going to mix up towards more collections from stand-alone in terms of initial licenses? And then once they have a collection, that the usage of enough products will be there for them to want to continue renewing the subscription on a collection, that there's enough indispensable products, let's say, within collections that basically your ARPS must go higher over time?

當然。例如，過去您可以追蹤套件的使用情況，因為它們為此進行了設置，我想現在您應該能夠對所有產品（包括獨立產品和產品集）的訂閱進行相同的追蹤。這個問題實際上有兩個方面：第一，你有多大信心客戶實際上會更多地從獨立版本轉向購買套裝版本，尤其是在初始許可證方面？然後，一旦他們擁有了自己的收藏系列，其中就會有足夠多的產品供他們使用，讓他們想要繼續續訂該系列的訂閱，也就是說，收藏系列中會有足夠多的不可或缺的產品，這樣一來，你的平均每筆訂單金額（ARPS）就會隨著時間的推移而增加嗎？

All right. Great. So thank you for the clarification. I always want to make sure I'm answering the right question for you, Jay. So first off, let's just -- let me kind of break the question up into some pieces. Right now, the run rate for collections is already up to what our historical Suites run rate is. So we're already back to where we were with Suites in terms of collection uptake. The other little piece of information I want to give you, and it's kind of some additional color on the M2S program. If you heard my -- the earlier comments, we said that 10% of the customers moving from maintenance to subscription were upselling to collections. That's 10% of the total customers moving. If you look at those who are actually eligible, when you subtract out people that are by default going from Suites to collections or people that actually don't have the option to move from a stand-alone to collection, it's almost 25%. So what you're seeing is not only a run rate that's up to our historical Suites level, but an acceleration in the M2S migration that's looking really solid in terms of getting people to collections. So it's looking good right now, Jay, and it's heading directionally in the right direction. So that's kind of the current state. Now to your next question about how confident are we with the product usage within the collection and the things associated with that. So there's -- I'll answer the question by bounding it in 2 ways: one, historically with Suites, we've known that it only takes 2 or more products of usage for people to really just continue with the value proposition of the Suites. We see no reason at all why that should change in the collection paradigm. So we expect to see the exact same behavior for the people that have chosen to move to collections. The thing that actually gives us even more confidence is the fact that unlike Suites, we've blended more of the cloud into the collection. So there's actually more extension from the collection into other types of capability that provide value than there was in the Suites. That's one. The other thing that bounds it is you're looking at our experience with EBAs and what happens when we provide more portfolio access, it just inevitably drifts over time to broader product usage. We see, on average, quite significant increases in the breadth of products that are being used. So I -- there's nothing right now that indicates that we're going to see any kind of different behavior than what we've seen in the past.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你的解釋。傑伊，我總是想確保我回答的是正確的問題。首先，讓我把這個問題分解成幾個部分來回答。目前，收款速度已經達到了我們以往套房收款速度的水準。所以，就產品系列的銷售情況而言，我們已經回到了套房銷售時的水平。我還要補充一點信息，這算是對 M2S 計劃的一些補充說明。如果你聽過我之前的評論，我們說過，從維護型客戶轉向訂閱型客戶中有 10% 的人最終購買了收藏版服務。這相當於總客戶數的 10%。如果你看一下那些真正符合條件的人，減去那些默認從套房升級到合集的人，或者那些實際上沒有從獨立版升級到合集選項的人，那麼這個比例接近 25%。所以你看到的不僅是運行速度達到了我們歷史上的套件水平，而且 M2S 遷移的加速看起來非常穩健，能夠有效地將人們吸引到收藏夾中。傑伊，目前情況看起來不錯，而且正朝著正確的方向發展。這就是目前的狀況。現在回答你的下一個問題，即我們對產品系列的使用以及與之相關的事項有多大信心。所以——我會從兩個方面來回答這個問題：第一，從套房的歷史來看，我們知道，人們只需要使用 2 個或更多產品，就會真正繼續享受套房的價值主張。我們完全看不出在收藏模式中該改變什麼理由。因此，我們預計選擇移至收藏夾的用戶也會表現出完全相同的行為。真正讓我們更有信心的是，與 Suites 不同，我們將更多雲端技術融入了產品系列中。因此，該系列產品實際上比套件提供了更多其他類型的功能，從而提供了更多價值。這是其中之一。另一個限制因素是，看看我們在 EBA 方面的經驗，以及當我們提供更多產品組合存取權時會發生什麼，隨著時間的推移，它必然會逐漸演變為更廣泛的產品使用。我們看到，平均而言，所使用產品的種類和範圍都有相當大的成長。所以——目前沒有任何跡象表明我們會看到與過去不同的行為。

Your next question comes from Saket Kalia with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的薩凱特·卡利亞。

First off, congrats, Andrew, on the permanent appointment. First, for either of you, could you maybe describe the mechanics of the M2S impact on ARPS this quarter? You said in the prepared remarks that subscription ARPS would've been, I think, about $509. So is this the impact of the discounts to convert? I remember kind of hearing that the discount would be -- the Suite is now in decline over time. So is that what we're seeing? Or did you maybe see a different mix of conversions perhaps than you were originally expecting?

首先，恭喜安德魯獲得正式任命。首先，請你們兩位分別介紹一下本季 M2S 對 ARPS 的影響機制？你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，訂閱ARPS的價格，我記得大概是509美元。所以這就是折扣對轉換率的影響嗎？我記得好像聽說過會有折扣——套房現在正在逐漸衰落。這就是我們看到的嗎？或者，您是否看到了與您最初預期不同的轉換組合？

Yes, Saket, we saw all of the above. We did see -- as people converted from maintenance to subscription, you remember the attraction was they got a significantly discounted product subscription if they turned in their perpetual license that they had. So an existing maintenance customer that converted was able to buy that product subscription at a significant discount. That obviously pulls down the ARPS on product subs. The faster we can make that transition move, the faster we can move people off of maintenance and over to product subscription, of course, the faster the transition works and the better off we all are. But it does have a short-term effect on ARPS. If you just isolated product subscriptions for a minute and said, "Let's net the M2S impact out of it", that's the statistic that we gave you in the opening commentary. Product subscriptions by itself, without M2S, the ARPS increased 10% year-on-year, and it was the third consecutive quarter of product subscription ARPS growth. So part of what you're seeing is just the M2S effect of kind of a bucket shift of people moving from maintenance mid-quarter up into subscription. All 63,000 subs moved, but only a fraction of the ARR was accumulated in the product subscriptions bucket. We also did see mix, and we always see mix a little bit in Q2. So our historical trend is that ARPS comes down a bit Q1 to Q2 because if both cloud -- and we talked about the success we had with cloud, 200% growth in our cloud subs. We know cloud subs have the lowest ARPS, that has a weight-averaging effect on the overall subscription plan ARPS. The second is enterprise, where we don't get a lot of new enterprise sales during the quarter, but we continue to drive usage. So we continue to drive net monthly active users into the denominator of that ARPS equation. So as we accumulate more users into the denominator and don't move the numerator, that has a negative effect on the ARPS for enterprise sub, so we actually saw both. M2S had an impact on product subs and mix had an impact on the overall subscription plan sub ARPS.

是的，薩凱特，以上我們都看到了。我們確實看到，隨著人們從維護型產品轉向訂閱型產品，你還記得嗎？吸引他們的是，如果他們交回他們擁有的永久許可證，他們可以獲得大幅折扣的產品訂閱。因此，在一位現有維護客戶轉換後，能夠以相當大的折扣購買該產品訂閱服務。這顯然會拉低產品訂閱的平均每筆交易價格。我們越快完成這種轉變，就能越快讓人們從維護模式過渡到產品訂閱模式，當然，轉變越快，對我們所有人就越有利。但這確實會對ARPS產生短期影響。如果你暫時把產品訂閱單獨拿出來，然後說：“讓我們把 M2S 的影響剔除掉”，那麼這就是我們在開篇評論中給出的統計數據。單就產品訂閱而言，不計 M2S，ARPS 年比成長 10%，這是產品訂閱 ARPS 連續第三個季度實現成長。所以你現在看到的現象，一部分是由於 M2S 效應造成的，也就是用戶從季度中期維護用戶轉移到訂閱用戶這一轉變。所有 63,000 個訂閱用戶都已轉移，但只有一小部分 ARR 累積到產品訂閱收入。我們也看到了混合銷售，而且我們總是在第二季度看到一些混合銷售的情況。因此，我們的歷史趨勢是，ARPS 從第一季到第二季略有下降，因為雲端服務——我們談到了我們在雲端服務方面取得的成功，我們的雲端訂閱用戶成長了 200%。我們知道雲端訂閱的平均每用戶收入最低，這會對整體訂閱計畫的平均每用戶收入產生加權平均效應。第二部分是企業級市場，我們在這個季度並沒有獲得很多新的企業級銷售額，但我們持續推動了使用量的成長。因此，我們繼續將每月淨活躍用戶數納入 ARPS 公式的分母中。因此，隨著分母中使用者數量的增加，而分子沒有變化，這對企業用戶的 ARPS 產生了負面影響，所以我們實際上看到了這兩種情況。M2S 對產品訂閱量產生了影響，產品組合對整體訂閱計畫訂閱量 ARPS 產生了影響。

That's great. That's very helpful. And for my follow-up, maybe for you, Andrew. I believe you said you're converting about 1 in 4 maintenance subs up for renewal. Is there any change in the portion of the remaining 75% that's churning off versus, let's say, accepting the price increase, if you will?

那太棒了。那很有幫助。我的後續問題，或許也是給你的，安德魯。我記得你說過，你們大約有四分之一的維護分包商正在續約。剩下的 75% 的人中，有一部分人選擇離開，而另一部分人則接受了價格上漲，這兩種情況之間有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, Saket, when we first constructed this program, remember, the whole thing was to balance churn associated with price increases. We always knew there'd be some incremental churn resulting from increasing prices. It's very modest. So what we're seeing is well within the bands of what we expected. And yes, actually, in that 75%, you do see a little bit of extra churn as a result of the price increase. But again, that's why we constructed the program the way we did to make sure that we actually minimize the churn. But right now, it's well within the bands we expected.

是的，Saket，你還記得嗎？我們最初建立這個程式的全部目的就是為了平衡價格上漲所帶來的客戶流失。我們一直都知道，價格上漲必然會導致一些客戶流失。它非常簡樸。所以，我們看到的情況完全在預期的範圍內。沒錯，實際上，在這 75% 的客戶中，由於價格上漲，確實出現了一些額外的流失。但也因為如此，我們才這樣建立了該計劃，以確保真正最大限度地減少客戶流失。但目前來看，它完全在我們預期的範圍內。

Yes, and Saket, you've got the data to do the math, right? We told you what the maintenance plan subs are and what the sub adds were. So it was minus 117,000 maintenance sub adds for the quarter and 63,000 of those left maintenance and dropped into converted over to product subscription. So you can see what the remainder is, and divide that by the base that would have come up for renewal during the quarter. So it's right in line with expectations.

是的，薩凱特，你有數據可以計算，對吧？我們已經告訴你維護計劃的子項是什麼，以及子項的附加內容是什麼。因此，本季新增維護訂閱用戶減少了 117,000 人，其中 63,000 人停止了維護服務，轉而成為產品訂閱用戶。這樣你就可以看到餘數是多少，然後用餘數除以該季度需要續期的基數。所以這完全符合預期。

Which kind of reinforces the point to pay attention to the net adds. The net adds tell the real story.

哪一種方式更能強調關注淨增值的重要性？網路廣告反映了真實情況。

You our next question is from Rob Oliver with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Rob Oliver。

Just on that 25% number, how did that align with sort of your internal expectations? And then what sort of feedback have you gotten kind of early on from the channel as to what makes people kind of jump? And I know Andrew, you talked about your primary goal here is kind of ease of use in the product and getting people to understand the implicit value of subscription. So can you talk a little bit about some of the feedback you're getting, and I just had a very quick follow-up.

單就 25% 這個數字而言，它與你們內部的預期是否相符？那麼，你從頻道早期就收到了哪些回饋，例如是什麼讓人們感到興奮？我知道安德魯，你之前說過你的主要目標是讓產品易於使用，並讓人們理解訂閱的內在價值。你能談談你收到的一些回饋嗎？我剛剛還有一個簡短的後續問題。

So first off, I want to make sure I reiterate exactly what that number is so we're all on the same page. Remember, in the prepared remarks, we said about 10% of the total people moving from maintenance to subscription or choosing to migrate. There's a subset of that, that were actually eligible to migrate at all. So of the subset that weren't already on Suites that default went to collections, of that subset, almost 25% are moving. That is above what our original expectations were with that base. So this is a good result. We view it positively. Now let's be clear, though, half a quarter does not a trend make, but it's certainly a gratifying result to see. Now right now, in terms of the value proposition the customers are buying on, I suspect the majority of the conversations are, "Hey, if I get on the collection now, wow, this is the best price I'll ever get for a collection. I should probably get on that boat right now." And some customers are, quite frankly, in a wait-and-see mode. How's Autodesk going to increase of value of the subscription offering? What are they working on? We've been very transparent with some of our plans. But I honestly think right now, they're just looking at a strategic choice and saying, "I should go with the collection right now because that's just -- this is the best price I'll ever get."

首先，我想再次強調這個數字到底是多少，這樣我們才能達成共識。請記住，在準備好的發言稿中，我們曾說過大約有 10% 的使用者從維護模式轉向訂閱模式或選擇遷移。其中只有一部分實際上符合移民條件。因此，在那些原本不在 Suites 中、預設進入集合的子集中，近 25% 的子集正在遷移。這超出了我們最初對該基地的預期。所以這是個好結果。我們對此持正面態度。不過，我們必須明確一點，半個季度並不能構成一種趨勢，但這無疑是一個令人欣慰的結果。就目前而言，就顧客購買時所依據的價值主張而言，我懷疑大多數對話都是：“嘿，如果我現在購買這個系列，哇，這是我能買到的最好的系列價格了。”我現在應該立刻上船了。 」坦白說，有些顧客則持觀望態度。Autodesk 將如何提升訂閱服務的價值？他們在做什麼？我們對部分計劃一直非常透明。但我真的認為，他們現在只是在考慮一個戰略選擇，他們會說：“我現在應該選擇這個系列，因為這是我能得到的最好價格。”

Great, that's helpful. And then any update, you guys, to the thoughts around piracy that you gave on last year's Analyst Day? I think you said 1.3 million actives as you mined through the users and subs? Any thought on an update to that number or any trends?

太好了，這很有幫助。那麼，各位，對於你們在去年分析師日上提出的關於盜版問題的觀點，有什麼新的進展嗎？我記得你說過，你透過分析用戶和訂閱者數據，統計出了130萬活躍用戶？對於這個數字的更新或任何趨勢，大家有什麼想法嗎？

So first off, the number's holding. The trends aren't changing. We are absolutely increasing our effectiveness in targeting that piracy base. I think I've told you guys previous, in the past, this year, it's all about increasing the quality of the leads that go into the existing machinery for piracy. Next year, it's all about automating our communication with the customers that are actually using pirated software and supplementing the existing resources that are focused on piracy. No change in the trends. We're piloting the automation that's going to communicate to customers directly in the product with regards to their usage of pirated applications. That will be rolled out sometime next year. So we're continuing to head in the right direction there.

首先，這個數字保持不變。趨勢並沒有改變。我們正在切實提高打擊盜版行為的效率。我想我之前跟你們說過，今年，一切都是為了提高現有盜版機器所使用的線索的品質。明年，我們將致力於實現與實際使用盜版軟體的客戶溝通的自動化，並補充現有打擊盜版的資源。趨勢沒有變化。我們正在試行一項自動化功能，將直接在產品中與客戶溝通，告知他們有關盜版應用程式的使用情況。這項措施將於明年某個時候推出。所以，我們在這方面繼續朝著正確的方向前進。

Your next question comes from Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

Two questions, one relating to maintenance ARPS, sort of taking the other side of the equation. You guys actually saw a nice increase there. Is that related primarily or solely to sort of the price increases that come onboard if they don't take the S part of the [M2S] subscription? Or are there kind of mix shifts going on there that the perhaps higher price guys tend to stay on maintenance as other guys are attritting? And is that trend line of the increasing ARPS and maintenance, is that something that we should be looking to continue in our model?

兩個問題，一個與維護 ARPS 有關，算是從另一個角度來看這個問題。你們那邊確實出現了不錯的成長。這主要還是僅僅與他們不選擇 [M2S] 訂閱的 S 部分而導致的價格上漲有關？或者說，是否存在某種組合變化，導致價格較高的維修商傾向於繼續進行維護，而其他維修商則逐漸淘汰？ARPS 和維修成本不斷增加的趨勢線，是否是我們模型中應該繼續保持的趨勢？

Yes, Keith, it's the flip side of what I was talking about earlier to Saket. So as people move from maintenance to subscription, let's say they move on July 1, which is the beginning of the third month of the quarter for us, so I'm on maintenance for 2 months, I converted on July 1 in the third month. The way that gets recorded is I've got 2 months of maintenance revenue and 1 month of product subscription revenue, right, but the entire sub dropped down to the product subscription level. So the impact -- there's actually impact in both places. There's, if you will, a tail of revenue left behind in maintenance that has no sub attached to it so that drives up the maintenance ARPS, and then there's a partial quarter of revenue showing up in the product subscription side so you get this understated ARPS. So the increase that you see in maintenance, the biggest driver of that is the flip side of what we talked about as the headwind on subscription plan. There is -- there are a couple of other changes. Pricing of maintenance agreements have gone up, 5% in price, and there's some mix shifts by product and by geo, but the biggest driver is just the compounding effect of maintenance to subscription. So as we -- we'll be in this mode -- we'll be in this maintenance-to-subscription mode now for the next several quarters. Certainly, through fiscal '19 and into fiscal '20. And I think probably it will -- this bucket shifting will continue to make it difficult to look at product -- maintenance sub ARPS versus subscription plan ARPS. And probably the better way to gauge our overall progress on ARPS is going to be to look at the total ARPS. That will net out the effect of this tail of revenue left behind and a partial quarter where they landed.

是的，基思，這和我之前跟薩凱特說的正好相反。所以，當人們從維護計劃過渡到訂閱計劃時，假設他們在 7 月 1 日過渡，這對我們來說是季度第三個月的開始，那麼我維護了 2 個月，我在第三個月的 7 月 1 日轉換了。記錄的方式是，我有 2 個月的維護收入和 1 個月的產品訂閱收入，對吧？但是整個訂閱量都降到了產品訂閱水準。所以，影響力——實際上，兩地都有影響。如果可以這麼說的話，維護收入中還有一部分沒有附加訂閱服務，這推高了維護收入的平均每用戶收入 (ARPS)，然後產品訂閱收入中又有一部分（佔總收入的四分之一）被低估，所以你才會得到這個被低估的平均每用戶收入 (ARPS)。因此，您看到的維護費用增加，其最大驅動因素與我們之前討論的訂閱計劃面臨的不利因素正好相反。還有──還有一些其他的變化。維護協議的價格上漲了 5%，產品和地理方面也出現了一些組合變化，但最大的驅動因素是維護與訂閱模式的疊加效應。因此，在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們將處於這種維護轉訂閱模式。當然，這種情況會持續到 2019 財年以及 2020 財年。而且我認為很可能——這種轉移負擔的做法將繼續使產品難以進行比較——維護子 ARPS 與訂閱計劃 ARPS。衡量我們在 ARPS 方面取得的整體進展的更好方法可能是查看 ARPS 總量。這將消除剩餘部分收入以及他們所處的季度部分收入的影響。

Got it, that's helpful. And if I could ask one about OpEx. You guys went through several quarters of basically total expense decline. This quarter, you saw some slight growth. Is that an indication that sort of the expense reduction programs have kind of run its course, and from here, it's more about holding steady? Or is there more room to run in terms of taking actual expense out of the equation here?

明白了，這很有幫助。如果我可以問一位關於營運支出（OpEx）的問題就好了。你們經歷了幾個季度的總支出基本上下降的情況。本季出現了一些小幅增長。這是否意味著削減開支的計畫已經走到盡頭，接下來需要保持穩定？或者，如果將實際成本排除在外，是否還有更大的發揮空間？

Yes, we continue to focus on that. Now we're flat from '16 to '17, flat again this year, flat again next year. Obviously, each year, we give a -- basically a merit increase in salary. So we're continually looking at where we're spending money and using a portfolio management approach to sharpen the things that we have to continue to focus on to be able to live within a flat spend envelope and still drive the transition and drive the most important things. So I talk a little bit -- when we gave guidance for the year, and you see a little bit of it in the prepared remarks. We had a couple of divestments. Those are -- those were expected through the year, but that's an example of the kind of things we're doing as we manage the portfolio to reduce spend in some areas so that we can afford to continue to increase in other areas and still stay flat in aggregate.

是的，我們將繼續專注於此。現在，我們的數據從 2016 年到 2017 年持平，今年再次持平，明年也再次持平。顯然，我們每年都會給予──基本上就是績效薪資成長。因此，我們一直在審視資金的去向，並採用投資組合管理的方法來明確我們必須繼續關注的事項，以便在支出規模不變的情況下，繼續推動轉型並推進最重要的事項。所以我講了一些——當我們給出年度指導意見時，你會在準備好的演講稿中看到一些內容。我們進行過幾次資產剝離。這些——這些都是今年預期會出現的情況，但這正是我們在管理投資組合時所採取的措施的一個例子，即減少某些領域的支出，以便我們能夠繼續增加其他領域的支出，同時保持總體支出不變。

Yes, and Keith, one of the questions we always get on this is, "How are you able to continue the execution you're doing when you are looking at an expense controlled environment?" This is really all about picking the most important things to work on. Obviously, we're doing well in our net adds so we're focusing a lot on that. And by the way, another area where we focused on is BIM 360 in the construction space. It's going so well that we actually shifted money during an expense-constrained environment to accelerate future development in that space. So it's just a matter of picking your priorities. And over time, you'll expect us -- continue to expect to see us to divest from things that just simply aren't aligned with where we need to focus over the next few years.

是的，基思，我們經常被問到的一個問題是：「在成本控制嚴格的環境下，你們如何才能繼續保持目前的執行力？」這其實就是選擇最重要的事情來著。顯然，我們在淨增人數方面做得很好，所以我們非常重視這一點。順便一提，我們關注的另一個領域是建築領域的 BIM 360。進展非常順利，以至於我們在支出受限的環境下，反而調撥資金來加速該領域的未來發展。所以，這只是選擇優先事項的問題。隨著時間的推移，你們將會期望我們——並且繼續期望看到我們剝離那些與我們未來幾年需要關注的重點不符的業務。

Your next question is from Philip Winslow with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的菲利普‧溫斯洛。

This is actually Michael Barrett who is on for Phil. I just wanted to circle back to the maintenance plan decline. Obviously, 63,000 of those 117,000 directly moved over from the maintenance-to-subscription plan. Did the -- are the rest of those all just churning off the platform completely? Was there any shelfware in there? Are there customers who had moved over prior to the promotion that just simultaneously had a maintenance plan in the subscription plan? Or should we really think of that as all just turning out of the base?

實際上，替菲爾上場的是麥可·巴雷特。我只是想再談談維護計畫被拒絕的事情。顯然，這 117,000 人中有 63,000 人直接從維護計劃轉為訂閱計劃。剩下的那些人是不是都徹底離開這個平台了？裡面有貨架上的物品嗎？是否有在促銷活動之前就已經升級到該套餐的客戶，同時他們的訂閱方案中又包含了維護計劃？還是我們應該把這一切都看成是從基地裡出來的？

Yes, Michael, I'll start, and Andrew, if you want to add color, you can. 117,000 minus 63,000, 54,000 churn on a 1.8 million sub base. Not all 1.8 million came up for renewal during the quarter, but that's a pretty normal churn rate for our maintenance plan. So we really saw nothing extraordinary even in the face of an announced 5% price increase. We really saw nothing extraordinary in the churn rate within maintenance. So there's nothing -- there's no other moving parts under the covers, if that's the question you're trying to get at.

好的，邁克爾，我先來；安德魯，如果你想上色，也可以。在 180 萬用戶基數上，流失用戶 117,000 減去 63,000，即 54,000。本季並非所有 180 萬份保單都到期需要續訂，但這對我們的維護計畫來說是一個相當正常的流失率。所以，即使面對宣布的 5% 的價格上漲，我們也沒有看到任何異常情況。我們發現維修部門的人員流動率並沒有什麼特別之處。所以，沒有——沒有其他隱藏部件，如果你想問的是這個的話。

Great. Yes, that was what I was trying to clarify. And then just on the move to collections, what sort of impact to subs, if any, have you seen from that move? I know you've called out, I believe, at your Analyst Day in the past if you have a customer who has 2 subscriptions per subscriber and they move to a collection, that's minus 1 subscription even though it's ARR accretive. Has there been any impact on total subs? Or is it too early to tell at this point?

偉大的。是的，那正是我想要澄清的。那麼，在轉向收藏方面，您認為這項舉措對訂閱用戶產生了什麼樣的影響（如果有的話）？我知道您曾在過去的分析師日上指出，如果一個客戶每個訂閱者有 2 個訂閱，而他們轉為收款，即使 ARR 增加，也會減少 1 個訂閱。訂閱用戶總數是否受到影響？現在下結論是否為時過早？

Well, we have lots of data from the Suites days that the effect -- this consolidation effect kind of ranged from 2% to 5%. If you look at what's going on with the maintenance-to-subscription moves and some of the churn we're seeing as people move from maintenance to subscription, it's right in line with those exact same numbers. We see consolidation, but it's incredibly modest. You have to remember, people need to use the software. They need the software for themselves individually, so when you consolidate products, yes, you do see some modest consolidation. It's right in line with the kind of consolidation we saw with Suites.

嗯，我們從套房時代就有很多數據表明，這種整合效應的影響範圍在 2% 到 5% 之間。如果你觀察一下維護型用戶轉向訂閱用戶的情況，以及我們看到的一些用戶從維護型用戶轉向訂閱型用戶的情況，就會發現這與上述數字完全吻合。我們看到了整合，但規模非常有限。你要記住，人們需要使用這款軟體。他們需要單獨使用這些軟體，所以當你整合產品時，是的，你會看到一些適度的整合。這與我們之前在Suites中看到的整合模式完全一致。

Your next question comes from Matt Hedberg with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬特‧赫德伯格。

I believe you guys implemented a file format change at the end of March. Can you talk about the mechanics of this and, if any, impact on quarterly sub adds? And I guess, secondarily, you've done these in the past. Can you sort of remind us historically the impact of something like this converting non-maintenance-paying active users?

我相信你們在三月底實施了文件格式變更。您能否談談其中的運作機制，以及（如果有的話）對季度新增訂閱用戶的影響？其次，我想，你以前也做過這些事。您能否回顧一下，歷史上類似的事情對轉換非付費活躍用戶產生了哪些影響？

Yes. So first off, just to give you context, every 3 to 5 years, we actually do one of these file format changes because what happens is we start to accumulate technical debt inside the file format, and we have to do these things to prevent bloat. So yes, we did one of those in this round. What you generally see is an initial decline in the number of active legacy seats, the non-subscriber seats. We saw that. But then it takes a year or 2 to diffuse through the entire ecosystem. So what you get is an initial chunk associated with the release of the product where legacy users shift up to the new product, and then over time, as people are integrating with the ecosystem, you see more and more attrition out of this non-subscriber base. So we expect to see the exact same pattern. It's happened historically over and over again. So we're right on track for that right now.

是的。首先，為了讓大家了解背景，我們實際上每隔 3 到 5 年就會進行一次文件格式更改，因為文件格式內部會開始累積技術債務，我們必須這樣做來防止文件膨脹。是的，我們這一輪也做了一件這樣的事。通常情況下，你會看到活躍的傳統席位（非訂閱席位）數量最初出現下降。我們看到了。但之後需要一到兩年的時間才能擴散到整個生態系統。因此，你會看到產品發布初期會有一部分用戶遷移到新產品，然後隨著時間的推移，隨著人們融入生態系統，你會看到越來越多的非訂閱用戶流失。所以我們預計會看到完全相同的模式。歷史上這種情況屢次發生。所以目前我們正按計劃進行。

That's helpful. And then you've commented in the past, coming -- once these 3-year M2S conversions come up, there's going to be a price increase that's sort of, I think -- if it's well documented, at least you've talked about it. Is this a once -- like a 1-renewal cycle trend to kind of get back to sort of normal discount rates or might this be a couple cycles? I'm just sort of think trying to think about the magnitude of that price increase.

那很有幫助。而且你過去也評論過，一旦這些 3 年的 M2S 轉換到來，價格就會上漲，我認為——如果這一點有據可查的話，至少你也談到過。這是一次性的趨勢──就像續約週期內的趨勢，目的是恢復到正常的折扣率，還是會持續幾個週期？我只是在思考，試著弄清楚這次價格上漲的幅度到底有多大。

Do you want to take this?

你想拿走這個嗎？

Yes, Matt, we've also tried to articulate that. The -- when we get to the end of the 3-year period, so someone converts from a maintenance subscriber to a product subscription, they give up their perpetual license. They get this reduced price for product subscription, and without having to pay for all 3 years upfront, they're grandfathered at that price for 3 years. At the end of that -- and that's for people who convert this year and next year, fiscal '18 and '19. At the end of that 3 years, they revert to what we've been calling the terminal price, which is the price of conversion compounded over 3%, 5% increases. So in effect, a 16% price increase from where we started the entire process. So they will snap up to that level. So they took a 5% increase, if they convert this year, that's roughly a 10% increase at the end of their 3-year grandfathering. And then it's going to take time for that [because] that will create a pool of product subscribers that are at a significantly lower price than a new product subscription, and it's going to take time to migrate that pool up to the price of a net new product subscription. That's not going to happen in 1 year or 2 years. It's -- that would be too big a step.

是的，馬特，我們也嘗試表達這一點。當 3 年期結束時，也就是有人從維護訂閱用戶轉為產品訂閱用戶時，他們將放棄永久授權。他們可以享受產品訂閱的優惠價格，而且無需預付 3 年的費用，他們可以享受該價格 3 年的優惠期。最後——這適用於今年和明年（2018 財年和 2019 財年）轉換的人。3 年期滿後，它們將恢復到我們一直稱之為終端價格的價格，即轉換價格以 3%、5% 的成長率複利計算得出。所以實際上，價格比我們最初開始整個流程時的價格上漲了 16%。所以他們會迅速提升到那個層次。所以他們獲得了 5% 的成長，如果他們今年轉換，那麼在 3 年的過渡期結束時，成長幅度大約是 10%。然後這需要時間，因為這將創建一個產品訂閱者群體，其價格遠低於新產品訂閱的價格，而將這個群體的價格提升到新產品訂閱的價格也需要時間。這在一兩年內不會發生。那——那步子邁得太大了。

Your next question comes from Heather Bellini with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的希瑟·貝利尼。

This is Mark Grant on for Heather. Saw the disclosures around the M2S program with the subscription plan ARR and the net subs coming from that program. One, are those metrics that you plan to disclose on an ongoing basis? And then just second, on maintenance renewals, realizing that, that M2S program might create some noise in the seasonality of renewals this year. Can you give us a sense of the split of contracts coming up for renewal between the fiscal 3Q and fiscal 4Q?

這裡是馬克·格蘭特，替希瑟報道。我看到了有關 M2S 項目的披露信息，包括訂閱計劃的 ARR 和該項目的淨訂閱用戶數。第一，這些指標是您計劃持續揭露的嗎？其次，關於維護續約，我們意識到，M2S 計畫可能會在今年的續約季節性方面造成一些幹擾。能否大致介紹一下第三財季和第四財季即將到期續約的合約數量分佈？

Yes, Mark, to your first question, we will continue to provide that visibility. I think because it's fairly disruptive between the 2 big pools of subscription plan and maintenance plan, we'll continue to provide the same metrics that we gave this quarter. So the impact on where they landed in product subscription in terms of how much revenue accumulated there and the number of subscriptions that moved. I still think it's going to be difficult for you to sort out at a more granular level what's happening inside ARPS because those transitions take place during the quarter. And so the -- given -- if you go back to the example I talked about earlier, if they move at the beginning of the third quarter, there's a tail of revenue left behind on the maintenance side that will not move over. And so it's -- I would encourage you to try to model ARPS. If that's important to you, I'd encourage you to try to model it at the total level. In terms of the number of maintenance agreements that come due in the second half of the year, we haven't given that kind of seasonality metric historically, but what you see is as with most enterprise software companies, we do see a bigger second half than we do in the first half. And so you can expect to see it be slightly more opportunities for conversion in the second half of the year than what we would have had in the first half.

是的，馬克，對於你的第一個問題，我們將繼續提供這種透明度。我認為，由於訂閱計劃和維護計劃這兩大收入群體之間存在相當大的衝突，我們將繼續提供與本季相同的指標。因此，這會影響他們在產品訂閱方面的最終選擇，具體體現在累積收入和訂閱用戶數量的變化上。我仍然認為，你很難更細緻地了解 ARPS 內部正在發生的事情，因為這些轉變發生在季度內。因此——假設——如果你回到我之前提到的例子，如果他們在第三季初搬遷，那麼維護方面就會留下一部分收入，這些收入不會搬遷過來。所以——我鼓勵你們嘗試對 ARPS 進行建模。如果這對你來說很重要，我鼓勵你嘗試在整體層面上進行建模。就下半年到期的維護協議數量而言，我們歷史上並沒有給出這種季節性指標，但與大多數企業軟體公司一樣，我們看到下半年的業務量確實比上半年要大。因此，您可以預期下半年會有比上半年更多的轉換機會。

Your next question is from Sterling Auty with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。

I apologize if you covered this in the prepared remarks and I missed it. But of the users that chose to make the move over to subscription from maintenance, can you give us a sense of what products were most popular that actually chose that switch?

如果您在準備好的發言稿中已經提到過這一點而我錯過了，我深表歉意。但是，在選擇從維護模式轉為訂閱模式的用戶中，您能否大致介紹一下哪些產品最受選擇這種轉換的用戶歡迎？

Well, so, first off, if they're on a Suite, it's kind of a no-brainer for you to do this. So we saw a lot of people on Suites making the move to subscription and taking up the offer pretty quickly. And then it kind of follows from there to products like AutoCAD, naturally, is the next biggest product up there. So it's pretty straightforward.

首先，如果他們入住的是套房，那麼你這麼做就沒什麼好猶豫的了。所以我們看到，Suites 上的許多用戶都很快轉向訂閱模式，並接受了這個優惠。然後，自然而然地，像 AutoCAD 這樣的產品就成了下一個最大的產品。所以很簡單。

Okay. And then Scott, on to a different area. On the OpEx side, I know you guys -- your hedging program, but just want to make sure, how, with the recent moves that we've seen included with your hedging program, is that impacting the outlook here for the back half?

好的。然後斯科特，又去了另一個地區。關於營運支出方面，我知道你們的對沖計劃，但我只是想確認一下，最近我們看到你們的對沖計劃中包含的舉措，會對下半年的前景產生怎樣的影響？

Yes, it's a great question. The interesting part about FX and particularly a subscription model where a lot of the revenue that we report in a given quarter was actually sold in a prior quarter, right? So as we open the quarter, we've got a very high percentage of the reported revenues for Q3 sitting on the balance sheet at exchange rates that are commensurate with when those were actually sold. So there's a lag effect in revenue really independent of the hedging. Whenever it's sold, we have the hedge benefit but then it goes in deferred, so the benefit of the weaker dollar will take a lot longer to show up in revenue simply because a lot of reported revenue's coming off the balance sheet before the FX rate is changed. We'll see it much more immediately on the expense side. We hedge the net exposure but we'll see the impact of the FX hit much more immediately in -- on the spend, both COGS and OpEx side.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。外匯業務，尤其是訂閱模式，有趣的地方在於，我們在某個季度報告的許多收入實際上是在前一個季度售出的，對吧？因此，在本季開始，我們發現第三季報告收入的很大一部分仍以與實際銷售時相符的匯率計入資產負債表。因此，收入存在滯後效應，這與避險無關。無論何時出售，我們都能獲得對沖收益，但收益會被遞延，因此美元走弱帶來的好處需要更長時間才能體現在收入中，原因很簡單，很多已報告的收入是在匯率變動之前從資產負債表中扣除的。我們將在支出方面更直接地看到這一點。我們對淨風險敞口進行了對沖，但匯率的影響會更直接地體現在支出上，包括銷售成本和營運支出方面。

Your next question comes from Gregg Moskowitz with Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Gregg Moskowitz。

So the cloud subscription growth again was very impressive, and it sounds like you're really starting to see BIM 360 construction and related activity ramp up as well. On the other hand, I believe the comps on cloud subs make it a little tougher later this fiscal year given the acceleration that we saw in that year-ago period. So just kind of curious how we should generally think about cloud subs growth over the balance of the year.

所以雲端訂閱成長再次令人印象深刻，聽起來您也確實開始看到 BIM 360 施工及相關活動加速發展了。另一方面，考慮到去年同期雲端訂閱業務的加速成長，我認為本財年稍後的業績會更加艱難。所以，我只是有點好奇，我們該如何看待今年剩餘時間內雲端服務用戶的成長情況。

You're right. In BIM 360, we're seeing a beautiful -- a really good acceleration of clouds growth. We see nothing that would indicate that, that's going to slow down as we head throughout the year. And the only thing, if I was to highlight anything, as you grow the base larger, the base you have to renew gets larger as well. So we'll be watching that very closely. But the momentum, there's really nothing out there right now that would slow the momentum, particularly on BIM 360.

你說得對。在 BIM 360 中，我們看到了雲端技術發展的一個非常好的加速過程。我們看不到任何跡象表明，隨著時間的推移，這種成長速度會放緩。如果要強調一點的話，那就是隨著基數的擴大，需要更新的基數也會跟著增加。所以我們會密切關注此事。但就目前的發展勢頭而言，真的沒有什麼能減緩這種勢頭，尤其是在 BIM 360 領域。

Okay, perfect. And then with respect to EBAs, I know Q2 obviously not a seasonally strong quarter for you there, but your unbilled deferreds were up significantly again on a sequential basis. How is the EBA uptakes tracking relative to your expectations, both in terms of number of customers signing on as well as the degree of ARR spending increases?

好的，完美。至於 EBA，我知道第二季顯然不是你們的旺季，但你們的未開票遞延款項較上季又大幅成長。EBA 的採用情況與您的預期相比如何？包括簽約客戶數量以及 ARR 支出成長幅度。

Yes, Gregg. The EBAs are tracking right in line. EBAs are always heavily weighted into the second half of the year. And so if you go all the way back to our Investor Day last year when I made sure everyone understood that we were going to move most -- many of our EBAs from billed upfront to annual, I said I thought the impact on deferred revenue by the end of the year would be $300 million or more of unbilled deferred that would accrue, and that's still our expectation on the unbilled deferred by year end. So expect to see the unbilled deferred grow more heavily in the second half of the year as we sign more of those EBAs. But in general, the EBA business is tracking right in line with our expectation.

是的，格雷格。外部協議的進展一切順利。外部協議通常集中在下半年。因此，如果你回顧我們去年的投資者日，當時我確保每個人都明白，我們將把大部分 EBA 從預付改為按年結算，我說我認為到年底，遞延收入將增加 3 億美元或更多的未開票遞延收入，這仍然是我們對年底未開票遞延收入的預期。因此，隨著我們簽署更多企業協議，預計下半年未計費遞延款項將大幅成長。但總的來說，EBA業務的發展完全符合我們的預期。

Your next question comes from Ken Wong with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ken Wong。

When looking at your sub guide, I guess the midpoint is around 650, and you guys are already kind of halfway there. And correct me if I'm wrong, but usually in the second half, you add a lot more. Can you help us understand some of the dynamics that are going into your guidance and the thinking for the second half?

看看你們的訂閱指南，我猜中間點在 650 左右，你們已經差不多達到一半了。如果我沒記錯的話，通常在下半場，你會添加更多內容。您能否幫助我們了解您在指導和規劃下半季時所考慮的一些因素？

Yes, Ken. We shifted the entire range up by 25,000. So prior guide on subs was 600 to 650. We shifted it up to 625 to 675. And a lot of that's based on the strength that we've seen in the first half of the year. We've touched a little bit on this in the opening commentary. It was a very strong first half. Our net sub adds coming from the enterprise business outpaced our expectations in Q1. The legacy promo continued to be strong, and cloud in the quarter we just closed, our cloud sub adds grew 200% year-on-year as Andrew said. So we had a very strong sub add first half of the year. The second half of the year is right in line with our expectations. So it's not a -- there's nothing -- there's no difference in what we expected in the second half built into that guidance. What you see in the guidance range shifting up is the strength of first half.

是的，肯。我們將整個範圍向上調整了 25,000。之前對訂閱用戶的指導價是 600 到 650。我們將其調整到 625 至 675。而這很大程度是基於我們在今年上半年看到的強勁表現。我們在開場白中已經稍微提到過這一點。上半場表現非常出色。第一季度，企業業務新增淨用戶數超出預期。傳統促銷活動依然強勁，而雲端業務在我們剛結束的季度中，正如 Andrew 所說，我們的雲端訂閱用戶數量同比增長了 200%。所以，我們上半年補充了一群非常優秀的替補球員。下半年的業績完全符合我們的預期。所以，這並非——沒有任何——我們對下半年的預期與預期並無不同，這些預期都已納入指導方針中。從指引範圍的上調可以看出，上半年的業績表現強勁。

Got it. And then maybe in terms of just renewal rates. I know in the past few quarters kind of across the different subscription lines, maintenance, product, et cetera, you guys have seen always kind of close to peak, if not peak. How are those tracking in Q2 here?

知道了。然後或許還需要考慮續約率的問題。我知道在過去的幾個季度裡，無論是不同的訂閱項目、維護、產品等等，你們都看到用戶數量一直接近峰值，甚至可能已經達到峰值。第二季這些指標的追蹤情況如何？

Our renewal rates are tracking exactly the place -- the way we would expect them to track right now. So we're right in line with everything -- all of our expectations.

我們的續約率正按照我們預期的方向發展。所以一切都符合我們的期望。

And Ken, the place to look to get a feel for that is, again, look at the net sub adds. And we've given you the visibility of maintenance, and you can get a real sense of what the renewal rates look like there because we told you how much of the 117,000 that went away were conversions over to product subs. You can do the same math on subscription plan and look at what the net adds are there. And that gives you a sense of not just what the volume is -- or the combination of what the new volume is and what the renewal rates are. And so -- and back to your earlier question, at the midpoint of our guidance by the way, 625 to 675, so the midpoint is 650. That's 21% growth year-on-year. So it's right in line with our expectations.

肯，要了解這一點，最好的方法就是查看淨新增訂閱用戶數。我們已經向您展示了維護情況，您可以真正了解續訂率的情況，因為我們已經告訴您，在流失的 117,000 個用戶中，有多少是轉換為產品訂閱的。你也可以對訂閱方案進行同樣的計算，看看淨收益是多少。這樣你就能了解銷量是多少──或是新銷量和續約率的組合。所以——回到你之前的問題，順便說一下，我們的指導價區間是 625 到 675，所以中點是 650。這相當於年增21%。所以這完全符合我們的預期。

Your next question comes from Ken Talanian with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Ken Talanian。

So you mentioned earlier that you had reinforced conviction in the fiscal '20 targets. Given the better-than-expected results, you think it's reasonable to assume that there's upside to those targets?

所以你之前提到過，你更堅定了對 2020 財年目標的信念。鑑於結果好於預期，你認為可以合理地假設這些目標還有上漲空間嗎？

Ken, so I'll start, and I see Andrew smiling. I know he can't wait to add some color to this. One of the things that we've done -- those targets, of course, we put out a little more than a year ago at this point, and the goal in setting that out was not to say, "This is guidance, and we're going to update it every quarter." It was to say, "This is where we see ourselves headed as we work through this transition." One of the things we spent a lot of time on back in December at our last Investor Day was talking about the various steps we had taken, the leverage we have pulled to, in effect, derisk that set of targets, and to provide some buffer between where we think we're going to land and what those targets are, and we continue to do that. We continue to pull those levers and continue to drive for those targets. I don't think it would be wise for us to try to continually update what that number looks like.

肯，那我先來，我看到安德魯在微笑。我知道他迫不及待想為這幅畫增添一些色彩。我們所做的一件事——當然，這些目標是我們一年多前發布的，當時的目標並非是說“這只是業績指引，我們會每個季度更新”，而是說“這是我們在轉型過程中所設想的發展方向”。去年12月，在上次投資者日上，我們花了大量時間討論我們採取的各種措施，以及我們為降低這些目標的風險而採取的槓桿作用，並在我們預期的最終目標和實際目標之間留出一定的緩衝空間。我們將繼續這樣做。我們將繼續採取這些措施，並繼續朝著這些目標努力。我認為我們不斷更新這個數字是不明智的。

It's good to see you asking questions like this. I mean, I think right now, all of us being on the same page that it's looking more and more likely that we're heading in exactly the right direction for our FY '20 targets, I think, is a good place to be. There's no reason for us to revise those targets right now.

很高興看到你提出這樣的問題。我的意思是，我認為現在我們所有人都達成共識，認為我們越來越有可能朝著 2020 財年的目標朝著正確的方向前進，我認為這是一個很好的局面。目前我們沒有理由修改這些目標。

Okay. And I guess just a more specific question. Can you talk about the mix of products that you're seeing transact through the eStore?

好的。我想問一個更具體的問題。您能談談您觀察到的透過網路商店進行交易的產品組合嗎？

Yes, when you look at the eStore, the eStore really dominates at the low end of our offerings. We actually do see almost every type of -- product type that we sell going through the eStore, but if you look at what the majority of it, a lot of it's going to be LT and then the next largest chunk is going to be AutoCAD. And that's basically the majority of the eStore traffic, and that's totally what you would expect from e-commerce transactions, the lower end of our value spectrum.

是的，如果你看一下我們的網上商店，你會發現網上商店在我們產品的低端領域佔據了絕對優勢。實際上，我們看到幾乎所有我們銷售的產品類型都透過網路商店銷售，但如果你看一下其中大部分，你會發現很多是 LT，其次是 AutoCAD。這基本上就是網上商店流量的大部分，這完全符合電子商務交易的預期，屬於我們價值範圍的低端。

Great. Just one quick follow-up to that one. Do you know if you're seeing any pirates essentially transact through the eStore?

偉大的。還有一個後續問題。你知道是否有盜版者透過網路商店進行交易嗎？

Well, you know the pirates don't announce themselves when they arrive at the eStore. However, it's highly likely that some of them do show up there, all right, especially if they're buying LT or something like that. But like I said, pirates don't declare themselves, but it's probably likely, especially given some of the digital-related targeting efforts we're doing with piracy that some of them show up buying there.

你知道，海盜們來到網上商店時是不會自我介紹的。不過，他們中的一些人很可能會出現在那裡，特別是如果他們購買的是LT之類的東西的話。但就像我說的，盜版者不會公開自己的身份，但考慮到我們正在進行的一些針對盜版的數位相關打擊工作，他們中的一些人很可能會出現在那裡購買商品。

Your next question is from Shankar Subramanian with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Shankar Subramanian。

I'm asking a question on behalf of Kash. I have a quick question on what can be the churn rate of the current renewal base for the subscribers for next year. So the question I have is -- so most -- some of the projects that the construction engineers use would be a short-term project, but some can be a long-term project. So if the subscriber growth in the current year is driven by short-term projects, there's a likelihood the next year they might drop out. But can you talk about what the mix is? I don't know if you know this or not, but can you talk about the mix between subscribers who are using it for short-term basis versus a long-term basis?

我替卡什問一個問題。我想快速問一下，目前續訂用戶群明年的流失率會是多少？所以我的問題是——大多數——建築工程師使用的一些項目是短期項目，但有些可能是長期項目。因此，如果今年的用戶成長是由短期專案推動的，那麼明年他們很可能會流失。但你能談談這種混合方式的具體內容嗎？我不知道您是否了解，但您能否談談短期訂閱用戶和長期訂閱用戶之間的比例？

So the pattern you're talking about, if no projects were in the pipeline at all, then I'd probably worry about that. But for every project that drops off, another project shows up. So that's just the wrong way of looking at it. There's a steady state of projects within the ecosystem. Projects retire, new projects ramp up. So I -- there's really no material change in the run rate because of the cyclicality of a particular set of projects. There's always new projects in the pipeline.

所以，如果你說的這種模式，如果完全沒有專案正在進行中，那我可能會擔心。但是，每當一個項目被取消，就會有另一個項目出現。所以，這種看待問題的方式是錯的。生態系內的項目數量保持穩定成長。舊項目退出，新項目啟動。所以，由於特定項目組合的周期性，運行速度實際上並沒有實質變化。總會有新項目正在籌備中。

Got it. And one on the digital manufacturing strategy, and you talked about the focus area for that. Can you talk about, is there any particular segment you're focusing on, whether it's 3D printing, IoT or not? And where are you in that strategy implementation, and when do we see the benefit of that? Is it more beyond fiscal '19?

知道了。還有一個關於數位化製造策略的問題，您談到了該策略的重點領域。您能否談談您目前關注的特定領域，無論是 3D 列印、物聯網還是其他領域？你們的策略實施進展到什​​麼階段了？我們什麼時候才能看到它的好處？是否超出 2019 財年？

So the opportunity that we're dealing with right now, where the market is fully ready and the technology is fully aligned with the market rate, is in construction. When we look at the digital manufacturing opportunity, the market is still coming to terms with, "Okay, what does it mean for us to be using solutions in the cloud when I'm in product manufacturing? How real -- how much of the 3D printing capability is actually going to be practical for my applications?" So what you're seeing right now is in low-volume manufacturing, aircraft components, things like that, greater adoption of 3D-printed workflows and some of these more automated workflows. That's going to eventually move down, so the bet on digital manufacturing is like the next long-term bet after the construction bet that we're playing right now. So were actually -- what you're seeing is a series of bets that provide a very strong path for long-term growth for the company.

因此，我們現在面臨的機遇，即市場完全成熟且技術與市場價格完全匹配的領域，就是建築業。當我們審視數位化製造的機會時，市場仍在努力理解“好吧，當我在產品製造領域使用雲端解決方案時，這對我們意味著什麼？”3D列印技術究竟有多實用？它能為我的應用帶來多少實際效益？目前我們看到的是，3D列印技術在小批量生產、飛機零件等領域得到更廣泛的應用，以及一些更自動化的工作流程。這個數字最終會下降，所以押注數位製造業就像是我們目前正在進行的建築業投資後的下一個長期投資。所以實際上——你現在看到的是一系列押注，這些押注為公司的長期成長提供了一條非常強勁的道路。

And we have reached our allotted time for questions, and I would like to turn the call back over to David Gennarelli.

提問時間已到，我想把電話交還給大衛詹納雷利。

Great. Well, that concludes our call today. We'll be at the Citi Conference in New York City on September 6.

偉大的。好了，今天的通話就到這裡。9月6日，我們將參加在紐約市舉行的花旗集團大會。

For any other follow-on questions, you can reach me at (415) 507-6033. Thank you.

如有其他後續問題，您可以撥打 (415) 507-6033 與我聯絡。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference call, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。