Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 Fiscal 2018 Autodesk, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎來到 Autodesk, Inc. 2018 財年第四季報告會。財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒：本次電話會議可能會被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to hand the conference over to Mr. Dave Gennarelli, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係部的戴夫·詹納雷利先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2018. On the line is Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at autodesk.com/investor. As noted in our press release, we have published our prepared remarks on our website in advance of this call. Those remarks are intended to serve in place of extended formal comments, and we will not repeat them on this call.

謝謝接線生。午安.感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2018 財年第四季和全年業績。電話那頭是我們的執行長 Andrew Anagnost 和我們的財務長 Scott Herren。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，您也可以在 autodesk.com/investor 上收聽電話會議的錄音回放。正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們已提前在網站上公佈了我們準備好的演講稿。這些發言旨在代替冗長的正式發言，我們將在本次電話會議上不再贅述。

During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the anticipated future performance of the company such as our guidance for the first quarter and full year fiscal 2019; our long-term financial model guidance; the factors we use to estimate our guidance, including assumptions regarding ASC 606 and tax reform; our maintenance-to-subscription transition; ARPS; customer value; cost structure and market opportunities and strategies; and transfer various products, geographies and industries. We caution you that such statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us and that actual events or results could differ materially.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就未來事件和公司預期未來業績發表前瞻性聲明，例如我們對 2019 財年第一季度和全年業績的指引；我們的長期財務模型指引；我們用於估算指引的因素，包括關於 ASC 606 和稅收改革的假設；我們從維護模式向訂閱模式的發展、服務模式；我們提醒您，此類聲明反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。

Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, specifically our Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2017, our Form 10-Q for the periods ending April 30, July 31 and October 31, 2017, and our current reports on Form 8-K, including the Form 8-K filed with today's press release and prepared remarks. Those documents contain and identify important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those contained in our forward-looking statements.

請參閱我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是我們 2017 財年的 10-K 表格、截至 2017 年 4 月 30 日、7 月 31 日和 10 月 31 日的 10-Q 表格，以及我們當前的 8-K 表格報告，包括與今天提交的新聞稿和 8-K 的表格報告，包括與今天的 8-K 表格報告，包括與今天的新聞稿和 8-K 一起提交表格。這些文件包含並指明了可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果之間存在差異的重要風險和其他因素。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will provide guidance on today's call but will not provide any further guidance or updates on our performance during the quarter, unless we do so in a public forum.

本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述均以今日為準。如果今天之後重播或回顧此通話，通話期間提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。Autodesk公司聲明不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上提供業績指引，但除非在公開場合，否則不會提供任何關於本季業績的進一步指引或更新。

During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results is provided in today's press release, prepared remarks and on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance, and unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison.

電話會議期間，我們也將討論非GAAP財務指標。這些非GAAP指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。我們已在今天的新聞稿、準備好的發言稿以及我們網站的投資者關係部分提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的調節表。在討論財務表現時，我們將引用一些數字或成長變化，除非另有說明，否則每個此類引用都代表同比比較。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Andrew.

現在我想把電話交給安德魯。

Thanks, Dave. Q4 was another milestone quarter for our subscription transition. Key to the quarter was the strong growth in both ARR and ARPS, even as subscription additions fell below expectations. We finished the year with better-than-expected performance on many of the traditional financial metrics such as revenue, deferred revenue, EPS and cash flow, all of which will be coming more relevant again as we pass the inflection point on our business model transition. Overall, these results bolster our belief in our ability to achieve our fiscal '20 goals around ARR and free cash flow.

謝謝你，戴夫。第四季是我們訂閱模式轉型過程中的另一個里程碑季度。本季業績的關鍵在於 ARR 和 ARPS 均實現了強勁成長，儘管新增訂閱用戶數量低於預期。今年年底，我們在收入、遞延收入、每股盈餘和現金流等許多傳統財務指標方面都取得了超出預期的業績，隨著我們度過商業模式轉型的拐點，所有這些指標都將再次變得更加重要。整體而言，這些結果增強了我們對實現 2020 財年 ARR 和自由現金流目標的信心。

There are several key outcomes of Q4 that I want to highlight. Total annualized recurring revenue or ARR grew 25%, and subscription plan ARR more than doubled again. Both ARR and subscriptions for subscription plan are now greater than the ARR and subscription base for maintenance, which is a significant milestone and in line with our projections when we began the transition.

我想重點介紹第四季的一些關鍵成果。年度經常性收入總額（ARR）增加了 25%，訂閱計畫 ARR 又翻了一番多。訂閱計畫的 ARR 和訂閱量現在都超過了維護計畫的 ARR 和訂閱量，這是一個重要的里程碑，也符合我們開始轉型時的預期。

Annualized revenue per subscription or ARPS inflected up in Q4, also in line with our projections. Recurring revenue has increased to 93% of total revenue. And we continue to see faster-than-expected migration of maintenance customers to subscription with the maintenance-to-subscription program or M2S.

第四季每訂閱用戶年化收入（ARPS）有所上升，也符合我們的預測。經常性收入佔總收入的比例已增至 93%。我們繼續看到維護客戶向訂閱模式的遷移速度比預期更快，這是透過維護轉訂閱計劃 (M2S) 實現的。

Beyond that, we remain enthusiastic about our long-term market expansion initiatives in both manufacturing and construction as we continue to introduce new technology that brings design and make closer together and drives the convergence of manufacturing and construction.

除此之外，我們對製造業和建築業的長期市場擴張計劃仍然充滿熱情，我們將繼續推出新技術，使設計和製造更加緊密地結合起來，推動製造業和建築業的融合。

Now I know you want to hear what's going on with sub adds, and I will get to that, but let's first start by talking about ARR. The continued positive trends we're seeing in ARR are clear signals that the transition is working. I'll stress once again that ARR is the most important metric when evaluating the health of the business at this stage of the transition. The strength in total ARR was broad-based, with all 3 major geographies growing ARR at 20% or more. Subscription plan ARR more than doubled, driven by growth in all subscription plan types but led by product subscription. We continue to drive tremendous growth in product subscription ARR on both a year-over-year and sequential basis.

我知道你們想了解訂閱用戶成長的情況，我稍後會談到這一點，但我們先來談談 ARR。ARR持續呈現正向趨勢，這清楚地表明轉型正在發揮作用。我再次強調，在轉型階段評估企業健康狀況時，年度經常性收入 (ARR) 是最重要的指標。整體 ARR 的成長勢頭強勁，三大主要地區的 ARR 成長率均達到 20% 或更高。訂閱計劃年度經常性收入 (ARR) 翻了一番多，這得益於所有訂閱計劃類型的增長，但產品訂閱的增長尤為顯著。我們的產品訂閱 ARR 持續實現強勁成長，無論是同比成長還是環比成長。

Now let's talk about subscription additions. To provide you more insight into the subscription dynamics, we need to break out core and cloud subscriptions. To be more explicit, the core business represents a combination of maintenance, product subscription and EBA subscriptions, while the cloud business represents all the results generated by standalone cloud offerings. When you break these 2 views out, our core business, which drives the overwhelming majority of our revenue, ARR and billings growth, is performing quite well. Our cloud business performed up to our reset expectations for the quarter.

現在我們來談談訂閱增值服務。為了讓您更深入了解訂閱動態，我們需要將核心訂閱和雲端訂閱分開。更具體地說，核心業務代表維護、產品訂閱和 EBA 訂閱的組合，而雲端業務代表獨立雲端產品產生的所有結果。如果將這兩種觀點分開來看，我們的核心業務（為我們帶來絕大部分的營收、年度經常性收入和帳單成長）表現相當不錯。我們的雲端業務表現符合我們先前設定的季度預期。

We added 45,000 cloud subscriptions in Q4, which represented a nearly 50% decrease against the tough compare to Q4 of last year when we ran a ceding program for a component of BIM 360. However, from a billings perspective, cloud had its biggest quarter ever, fueled by several large wins, including 6 with top rank construction companies. We see continued momentum in terms of customers moving to higher value products like BIM 360 Docs and Field.

我們在第四季度新增了 45,000 個雲端訂閱，與去年第四季相比下降了近 50%，當時我們對 BIM 360 的一個組件進行了轉讓計劃。然而，從帳單金額來看，雲端運算業務迎來了有史以來最大的一個季度，這得益於幾項重大訂單，其中包括與 6 家頂級建築公司達成的訂單。我們看到，客戶轉移到 BIM 360 Docs 和 Field 等更高價值的產品的勢頭持續增強。

We remain very enthusiastic about the opportunity with our cloud products, but keep in mind that cloud is still a small contributor to our overall business. ARR for standalone cloud grew 23% in Q4 but contributed less than $100 million of our total $2.05 billion in ARR. So while cloud will not be a major driver of our FY '20 performance, we remain confident it will be a major component of our business in the years beyond FY '20.

我們仍然對雲端產品帶來的機會充滿熱情，但請記住，雲端業務在我們整體業務中所佔的份額仍然很小。第四季獨立雲端的 ARR 成長了 23%，但對我們 20.5 億美元的 ARR 總額貢獻不到 1 億美元。因此，雖然雲端運算不會成為我們 2020 財年業績的主要驅動力，但我們仍然相信，在 2020 財年以後的幾年裡，它將是我們業務的重要組成部分。

This brings us to the question, why did the net sub additions fall short for the quarter? The answer is that we experienced greater-than-expected subscription consolidation as customers are reducing their total subscriptions in favor of collections. We're seeing this reflected in the general adoption of collections where the mix of collections within the product subscription base more than doubled year-over-year and now represents over 20% of the product subscription base. The good news is that most of these customers are increasing their total spend with Autodesk, contributing to solid increases in ARPS and ARR. So our core strategy of driving upsell to industry collections is working better than we anticipated.

這就引出了一個問題：為什麼本季淨新增訂閱用戶數未達預期？答案是，由於客戶減少訂閱總數而選擇合集，我們經歷了比預期更大的訂閱整合。我們看到，產品系列的普遍採用反映了這一點，產品訂閱用戶中產品系列的比例同比增長了一倍多，現在佔產品訂閱用戶的 20% 以上。好消息是，這些客戶中的大多數都在增加他們在 Autodesk 的總支出，從而促進了 ARPS 和 ARR 的穩定成長。因此，我們透過向產業收藏品中追加銷售來推動銷售的核心策略比我們預期的效果要好。

We're also seeing the impact of collections upselling with both regular renewals and with customers participating in the M2S program. And the upsell effect related to M2S is happening across all geographies.

我們也看到了催收追加銷售的影響，包括常規續費和客戶參與 M2S 計畫。與 M2S 相關的追加銷售效應正在所有地區發生。

To give you an idea of how this works, I'll give you a real example of a Canadian engineering firm and their M2S transaction from Q4. They had 42 maintenance subscriptions up for renewals: 20 AutoCADs, 21 Navisworks and 1 premium suite. They migrated to 19 subscriptions of the AEC collection and 1 AutoCAD subscription, a net reduction of over half their seats. However, the account value for this customer increased by over 10%. This happens enough times and you get a depressive impact on our net sub adds as a result of collections upsell but a pronounced increase in overall ARR.

為了讓您了解它是如何運作的，我將以一家加拿大工程公司及其第四季的 M2S 交易為例進行說明。他們有 42 個維護訂閱即將續訂：20 個 AutoCAD 訂閱、21 個 Navisworks 訂閱和 1 個高級套件訂閱。他們遷移到 19 個 AEC 套件訂閱和 1 個 AutoCAD 訂閱，淨減少了一半以上的席位。然而，該客戶的帳戶價值成長了超過 10%。這種情況發生多次，會因追加銷售而對我們的淨新增用戶產生負面影響，但整體 ARR 會顯著增加。

So that should help you understand what's happening. This is a positive outcome for ARR and ARPS, but it negatively impacts our net sub adds. Beyond that, we believe this issue will work itself out over the course of the year as most of our largest customers complete their maintenance-to-subscription migration.

這樣應該能幫助你理解發生了什麼事。這對 ARR 和 ARPS 來說是一個正面的結果，但對我們的淨新增用戶數產生了負面影響。除此之外，我們相信隨著我們大多數大客戶完成從維護模式到訂閱模式的遷移，這個問題將在今年內解決。

Despite the impact from collections upsell, sub adds in our core business increased 14% year-over-year and accelerated from the prior 3 quarters, led by a record number of product subscription additions. Even when normalizing for M2S, the base of product subscriptions nearly doubled year-over-year, and EBA sub additions increased over 30%, fueled by the strong Q3 EBA deal activity. The core business drove more than $1.9 billion of our total ARR in Q4 and grew more than 25%.

儘管受到產品增購的影響，但我們核心業務的訂閱用戶數量同比增長了 14%，並且比前三個季度有所加快增長，這主要得益於產品訂閱用戶數量的創紀錄增長。即使將 M2S 進行標準化處理，產品訂閱基礎也較去年同期成長近一倍，EBA 訂閱新增量成長超過 30%，這主要得益於第三季強勁的 EBA 交易活動。核心業務在第四季度為我們帶來了超過 19 億美元的年度經常性收入，成長超過 25%。

Another consistent attribute of the transition is that new customers continue to make up a meaningful portion of product subscription additions and represented close to 30% of the mix for the quarter. These new customers come from a mix of market expansion, growth in emerging markets, converting unlicensed users and people who have been using an alternative design tool. We'll go into much greater sub results and modeling details at our Investor Day in a few weeks, but there wasn't anything in these numbers that alters our conviction in our ability to drive ARR and cash flow.

轉型過程中另一個持續的特點是，新客戶繼續在產品訂閱新增用戶中佔據相當大的比例，在本季佔接近 30%。這些新客戶來自市場擴張、新興市場成長、轉換未授權用戶以及使用其他設計工具的用戶等多種管道。我們將在幾週後的投資者日上詳細介紹更詳細的子結果和模型細節，但這些數字並沒有改變我們對自身推動年度經常性收入和現金流能力的信心。

Now I'll turn it over to Scott for a few more details on the M2S program, ARPS and other financials. Scott?

現在我將把麥克風交給 Scott，讓他詳細介紹 M2S 專案、ARPS 和其他財務狀況。史考特？

Thanks, Andrew. Subscription plan subs grew by a record 371,000 during Q4, with growth in net subscriptions coming in all 3 categories: cloud, enterprise and product subscriptions. Partially offsetting the growth in subscription plan subs was the expected decline in maintenance plan subs, primarily related to the M2S program. The M2S program continues to progress faster than expected, especially in the Americas. In Q4, customers migrated 168,000 maintenance subs to product subs. Similar to last quarter, approximately 1/3 of all maintenance renewal opportunities during Q4 migrated to product subscription. [Of] those that migrated, over 1/3 of eligible subscriptions upgraded from an individual product to an industry collection, which is the highest upgrade rate we've seen yet and relate to the collection's upsell effect that Andrew just spoke about. The renewal rate for maintenance customers held steady in Q4. However, remember that Q4 has the biggest pool of maintenance plan renewal opportunities. Consequently, the decline in maintenance subs is always greatest in Q4.

謝謝你，安德魯。第四季訂閱計畫用戶數量創紀錄地增加了 37.1 萬，淨訂閱用戶數量在所有三個類別中均實現了增長：雲端訂閱、企業訂閱和產品訂閱。訂閱計劃用戶數量的成長部分被維護計劃用戶數量的預期下降所抵消，這主要與 M2S 計劃有關。M2S計劃的進展速度持續超出預期，尤其是在美洲地區。第四季度，客戶將 168,000 個維護訂閱遷移到了產品訂閱。與上一季類似，第四季約有 1/3 的維護續訂機會遷移到了產品訂閱模式。在遷移的用戶中，超過三分之一的符合條件的訂閱用戶從單一產品升級到行業合集，這是我們迄今為止看到的最高升級率，這與 Andrew 剛才提到的合集追加銷售效應有關。第四季維護客戶的續約率保持穩定。但請記住，第四季擁有最多的維護計畫續約機會。因此，維護分包商的下降幅度在第四季總是最大。

We're very pleased with the M2S program to date, and we'll continue to encourage maintenance customers to move sooner rather than later. We expect fiscal '19 to be the biggest year for M2S migrations. It makes more economic sense for our customers as the cost of staying on maintenance will be higher than the cost to migrate. And product subscription provides them the greatest value with increased flexibility, support and access to our cloud products.

我們對迄今為止的 M2S 計劃非常滿意，我們將繼續鼓勵維護客戶儘早遷移。我們預計 2019 財年將是 M2S 遷移規模最大的一年。對我們的客戶來說，這樣做比較經濟，因為繼續維護的成本會高於遷移的成本。產品訂閱服務為他們提供了最大的價值，包括更高的靈活性、支援和對我們雲端產品的存取權限。

Now I'll talk a little bit more about annualized revenue per subscription or ARPS. This is the anticipated quarter where we saw ARPS inflect up for all the reasons we've been calling out, including improvements to the product mix and the geo mix and the base of our product subs, the price increase for the M2S program, less discounting and promotional activity and selling more direct to our customers through our eStore. Collections upsell is also having a positive impact on ARPS.

現在我將更詳細地談談每訂閱用戶的年化收入（ARPS）。正如我們之前提到的，本季度 ARPS 出現了預期增長，原因包括產品組合和地理組合的改善、產品訂閱基礎的擴大、M2S 計劃的價格上漲、折扣和促銷活動的減少以及透過我們的網上商店直接向客戶銷售更多產品。追加銷售也對平均每筆交易額 (ARPS) 產生了正面影響。

Our total ARPS grew 5% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. Breaking it down, maintenance plan ARPS continues to grow as expected, driven by mix and the annual price increases we rolled out as part of the M2S program. Product subscription plan ARPS showed a 6% sequential growth. If we exclude the effect of M2S, product subscription ARPS grew 8% sequentially, had its fifth consecutive quarter of sequential growth and grew 20% year-on-year. That's meaningful growth in ARPS for the largest component of our core business. Further, if we isolate on our core business, which again is maintenance plus product subs plus EBA subs, core ARPS grew 10% year-on-year and 5% sequentially. These are the ARPS trends we've been predicting since the start of the transition and I know have been a source of question for many of you.

我們的總平均每筆交易收入較去年同期成長 5%，較上季成長 4%。細分來看，維護計劃 ARPS 繼續按預期增長，這得益於產品組合以及我們作為 M2S 計劃的一部分推出的年度價格上漲。產品訂閱計劃平均每筆收入較上季成長 6%。如果排除 M2S 的影響，產品訂閱 ARPS 環比增長 8%，連續第五個季度實現環比增長，同比增長 20%。對於我們核心業務中佔比最大的部分而言，這是 ARPS 的顯著成長。此外，如果我們單獨來看我們的核心業務，也就是維護、產品訂閱和 EBA 訂閱，核心 ARPS 年成長 10%，環比成長 5%。這些是我們從轉型開始以來一直預測的ARPS趨勢，我知道這引起了你們許多人的疑問。

Looking at our business mix, once again, total direct was 30% of the Q4 mix. One of the key investment areas for Autodesk has been our digital infrastructure but the goal of making it easier for our customers who choose to do business directly with Autodesk. Our eStore is a big part of that, and we're very pleased that we've already grown that channel to nearly $100 million in fiscal 2018 revenue. In addition, our eStore generated approximately 20% of the product sub sales in Q4, and close to 50% of LT subs in the Americas came through the eStore in Q4. That's tremendous progress in a short amount of time, and we expect to see this continue to grow.

從我們的業務組成來看，第四季直接業務佔比再次達到 30%。Autodesk 的重點投資領域之一是我們的數位基礎設施，但我們的目標是讓選擇直接與 Autodesk 開展業務的客戶更容易獲得服務。我們的網上商店是其中的重要組成部分，我們非常高興地看到，該管道在 2018 財年的收入已經增長到近 1 億美元。此外，我們的網路商店在第四季度創造了約 20% 的產品子銷售額，美洲地區近 50% 的長期子銷售額在第四季度是透過網路商店獲得的。這是在短時間內取得的巨大進步，我們期待這種進步能持續下去。

The biggest component of our direct mix is still the business we do with large enterprise customers. Q4 is always our biggest quarter for large deal activity, and we signed a record number of $1 million-plus deals in Q4, over 70 of them, including 14 contracts valued at $5 million or more. Most of these large deals were EBAs. And on average, the contract value per EBA renewals increased over 40% compared to the original EBA contract value.

我們直接業務組合中佔比最大的部分仍然是與大型企業客戶的業務。第四季一直是我們的大宗交易活動最多的季度，我們在第四季度簽署了創紀錄的100萬美元以上的交易，超過70筆，其中包括14份價值500萬美元或以上的合約。這些大宗交易大多是企業協議（EBA）。平均而言，每次 EBA 續約的合約價值比最初的 EBA 合約價值增長了 40% 以上。

For those of you who might not be as familiar with the history of Autodesk, these large deal stats are quite remarkable, even compared to just 5 or 10 years ago. Through our product innovation and forward thinking, Autodesk has evolved to become a trusted partner and thought leader with our customers. Many are now coming to us seeking our guidance on how to prepare for the confluence of design and make, which is already happening in certain industries.

對於那些可能不太了解 Autodesk 歷史的人來說，即使與 5 年前或 10 年前相比，這些大宗交易數據也相當驚人。憑藉產品創新和前瞻性思維，Autodesk 已發展成為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴和思想領袖。現在許多人來尋求我們的指導，了解如何為設計與製造的融合做好準備，而這種融合已經在某些行業發生。

Moving to spend management. We continue to be able to execute well while keeping spend flat on a constant currency basis for both Q4 and fiscal 2018. The restructuring action we initiated last quarter is allowing us to reallocate our spend, to increase investment in areas that drive long-term value while reducing spend and making targeted divestments in other areas. We also remain committed to keeping fiscal 2019 non-GAAP spend flat at a constant currency relative to our fiscal 2018 budget at about $2.2 billion.

轉向支出管理。在2018財年第四季和整個財年，我們都能維持良好的營運效率，同時在固定匯率下支出維持不變。我們在上個季度啟動的重組行動使我們能夠重新分配支出，增加對能夠帶來長期價值領域的投資，同時減少其他領域的支出並進行有針對性的資產剝離。我們也將繼續致力於將 2019 財年非 GAAP 支出以固定匯率計算與 2018 財年預算持平，約 22 億美元。

Looking at the balance sheet, reported deferred revenue grew 9%. At the same time, unbilled deferred revenue increased by $178 million sequentially, bringing total unbilled deferred revenue to $326 million. As a reminder, this completes the first full year of moving our enterprise customers to annual billing terms. If we consider total deferred revenue as reported deferred plus unbilled deferred, which is a fair comparison for last year, deferred revenue grew more than 25%. Since most of our enterprise customers are on 3-year contracts, an entirely new group of enterprise customers will come up for renewal this year and next year. So the amount of unbilled deferred revenue will continue to grow meaningfully.

從資產負債表來看，報告的遞延收入增加了 9%。同時，未開票遞延收入季增 1.78 億美元，使未開票遞延收入總額達到 3.26 億美元。再次提醒大家，這標誌著我們企業客戶全面過渡到年度計費方式的第一年圓滿結束。如果我們把總遞延收入看作是已報告的遞延收入加上未開票的遞延收入（這是與去年進行公平比較的結果），那麼遞延收入增長了超過 25%。由於我們的大多數企業客戶都簽訂了 3 年期合約，因此今年和明年將有一批全新的企業客戶需要續約。因此，未開票遞延收入的金額將持續顯著成長。

Q4 cash flow was stronger than expected, driven by good billings linearity in the quarter. The strength of the Q4 cash flow allowed us to finish the year just in the black, which is also better than expected. When it comes to capital allocation, our stock repurchase program continues to be primary use of cash, and we opportunistically accelerated that program in Q4, buying back roughly 2.4 million shares.

第四季現金流強於預期，主要得益於該季度良好的帳單線性成長。第四季強勁的現金流使我們能夠以盈利結束全年，這也比預期要好。在資本配置方面，我們的股票回購計劃仍然是現金的主要用途，我們在第四季度抓住機會加快了該計劃，回購了大約 240 萬股股票。

At our last Investor Day, I indicated that we would use the majority of the $1.7 billion cash balance we had available at that time for stock repurchases. Since then, we spent over $900 million on share buybacks. In fact, over the past 2 years, we've reduced our absolute share count by close to 3%, and we remain committed to managing dilution and reducing shares outstanding over time.

在上次投資者日上，我曾表示，我們將把當時可用的 17 億美元現金餘額中的大部分用於股票回購。自那以後，我們已花費超過 9 億美元用於股票回購。事實上，在過去的兩年裡，我們的絕對股份數量減少了近 3%，我們將繼續致力於控制股權稀釋，並隨著時間的推移減少流通股數量。

Before getting into our outlook, I want to touch on 2 high-profile items that are impacting every company: tax reform and ASC 606. With the start of the new fiscal year, we have adopted the new revenue accounting standard, ASC 606, and we'll be applying the modified retrospective transition method. The new standard will not result in a change in timing and amount of the recognition of revenue for the majority of our product subscription offerings and enterprise agreements.

在展望未來之前，我想先談談影響每家公司的兩件備受矚目的事情：稅制改革和 ASC 606。隨著新財政年度的開始，我們採用了新的收入會計準則 ASC 606，並將應用修正的追溯過渡方法。新標準不會改變我們大部分產品訂閱服務和企業協議的收入確認時間和金額。

In fiscal '19, the estimated impact will be a net reduction to revenue and EPS of approximately $40 million and $0.15, respectively, compared to what would have been recognized under ASC 605 and a reduction of approximately $20 million in ARR.

2019 財年，預計這將導致收入和每股收益分別淨減少約 4,000 萬美元和 0.15 美元，與根據 ASC 605 確認的收入相比，年度經常性收入 (ARR) 將減少約 2,000 萬美元。

We will be required to capitalize and amortize sales commissions under the new standard. While we do not expect a significant impact on reported expenses for the full year, the timing of when we recognize the deferred commissions by quarter will vary compared to historic seasonality. 606 impacts are greatest in Q1 and then dampen as we move through the year and become nominal by fiscal '20. And of course, none of the 606 impacts affect cash flow.

根據新準則，我們將需要對銷售佣金進行資本化和攤提。雖然我們預計不會對全年報告費用產生重大影響，但與歷史季節性相比，我們按季度確認遞延佣金的時間將有所不同。606 的影響在第一季最大，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸減弱，到 2020 財年將變得微不足道。當然，這 606 項影響都不會影響現金流。

Regarding the impact from tax reform, saying it's complex may be an understatement, and clarifications from the IRS seem to come out daily. But we have enough information to provide the following: all in all, U.S. tax reform is good for Autodesk, whereby the lower U.S. tax rate and the ability to access foreign cash in the future will increase our profitability and help us manage capital more efficiently. We will utilize our deferred tax assets to offset the cash costs of the onetime transition tax.

關於稅制改革的影響，說它複雜可能都算是輕描淡寫了，而且美國國稅局似乎每天都在發布澄清說明。但我們掌握的資訊足以得出以下結論：總而言之，美國稅制改革對歐特克有利，因為較低的美國稅率以及未來獲得海外資金的能力將提高我們的獲利能力，並幫助我們更有效地管理資本。我們將利用遞延所得稅資產來抵銷一次性過渡稅的現金成本。

We're still analyzing the full impact of tax reform, but we currently estimate our fiscal '19 non-GAAP effective tax rate at 19%. For fiscal '20 and beyond, we estimate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 17% and 18%.

我們仍在分析稅改的全面影響，但我們目前估計 2019 財年非 GAAP 實際稅率為 19%。對於 2020 財年及以後，我們預計非 GAAP 實際稅率將在 17% 至 18% 之間。

Now I'll turn the discussion to our outlook. And I'll start by saying that our view of the global economic conditions remains unchanged from the last few quarters, with most of the mature markets performing relatively well and little change in the emerging markets.

現在我將把討論轉向我們的展望。首先我想說的是，我們對全球經濟狀況的看法與過去幾季相比沒有變化，大多數成熟市場表現相對較好，新興市場變化不大。

We're providing guidance this quarter under both ASC 605 for comparison to our historic financials and 606 and would expect The Street to model us using the 606 numbers. Recognize that as we introduce guidance for fiscal 2019, you will be able to fill in the blanks for several fiscal '20 metrics based on our stated fiscal '20 goals. As Andrew said at the top of the call, we are confident in our ability to achieve our important goals around ARR and free cash flow.

本季度，我們將根據 ASC 605 和 606 提供業績指引，以便與我們的歷史財務數據進行比較，並預計華爾街將使用 606 數據來預測我們的業績。請注意，在我們推出 2019 財年指引時，您可以根據我們公佈的 2020 財年目標，填寫幾個 2020 財年指標的空白處。正如 Andrew 在電話會議開始時所說，我們有信心實現我們在 ARR 和自由現金流方面的重要目標。

As we head into the growth phase of the model transition, we're bringing back annual guidance on billings defined as reported revenues plus the change in deferred revenues, which should be helpful for modeling our cash flow. I'll note that while we expect billings to increase by approximately 26% at the midpoint for the full year, billings growth in Q1 will be much more modest due to a tough compare against strong billings in Q1 last year.

隨著我們進入模型轉型成長階段，我們將恢復年度帳單指引，帳單定義為已報告收入加上遞延收入的變化，這應該有助於我們建立現金流模型。需要指出的是，雖然我們預計全年帳單金額將在年中成長約 26%，但由於去年第一季帳單金額強勁，第一季的帳單金額成長將要溫和得多。

Another thing to keep in mind as we model out free cash flow is that there are a couple of onetime impacts to fiscal '19 cash flow that total about $130 million. These pertain to charges for the restructuring and the exit tax from moving our European operations center from Switzerland to Dublin, Ireland. These onetime items, together with the strength of our Q4 outflows, will have an impact on the strength of cash flow for Q1, which is likely to be negative.

在模擬自由現金流時，還需要記住一點，2019 財年的現金流量會受到一些一次性影響，總計約 1.3 億美元。這些費用包括重組費用和將我們的歐洲營運中心從瑞士遷至愛爾蘭都柏林所產生的退出稅。這些一次性項目，加上我們第四季的資金流出，將對第一季的現金流產生影響，很可能是負面的。

As we emerge from the inflection in our business model transition, cash flow ramps up quickly through fiscal '20. Significant part of the ramp is driven by the increase in billings, primarily from what will be a much larger renewal base of product subs and multiyear subscriptions returning to the historic levels we used to see with maintenance. In addition, in fiscal '20, we'll then have 2 years' worth of unbilled deferred revenue flowing into billings, following our transition to annual billings for enterprise customers.

隨著我們走出商業模式轉型的轉捩點，2020 財年的現金流迅速成長。成長的很大一部分是由帳單金額的增加所推動的，這主要來自產品訂閱和多年訂閱續訂規模的大幅擴大，這些續訂將恢復到我們過去在維護方面所看到的歷史水平。此外，在 2020 財年，隨著我們對企業客戶實施年度計費，我們將有 2 年未開立的遞延收入流入帳單。

The underlying positive trends in our business give us confidence in accelerating ARR growth to approximately 30% for fiscal '19. This growth will be driven by fewer subscriptions at higher ARPS, which reflects the trends we're seeing with both our cloud products and collections upsell. As such, we've revised our outlook for subscription additions for the year.

我們業務的潛在正面趨勢使我們有信心在 2019 財年將 ARR 成長加速至約 30%。這一成長將由較少的訂閱用戶和更高的平均每次購買價格 (ARPS) 推動，這反映了我們在雲端產品和產品系列追加銷售方面所看到的趨勢。因此，我們調整了今年的訂閱用戶成長預期。

As Andrew mentioned, our next Investor Day event is just about 3 weeks from today. We'll use that opportunity to do another deep dive on the model and provide more details on the recent numbers and the path ahead. We'll also go into greater detail on subs and ARPS model that get us to the fiscal '20 goals, and we'll revisit our 5-year model.

正如安德魯所提到的，我們的下一次投資者日活動將在大約三週後舉行。我們將利用這個機會對該模型進行更深入的研究，並提供更多關於近期數據和未來發展方向的細節。我們也將更詳細地介紹實現 2020 財年目標的子計畫和 ARPS 模型，並重新檢視我們的 5 年模型。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Andrew.

現在我把電話轉回給安德魯。

Thanks, Scott. I'll reiterate what Scott just said and assure you that we are confident in our ability to accelerate ARR growth to achieve our fiscal '20 ARR and free cash flow goals, and we have a realistic plan in place to achieve those goals. Given the changes we've seen at the end of this year, it shouldn't come as a surprise that we'll be reducing the subs CAGR and increasing the ARPS CAGR, consistent with the move to fewer higher-value subs in both the core business and in our cloud business. The transition is on track, and these model adjustments are happening for the right reasons. We'll go into all the details at our Investor Day on March 28.

謝謝你，斯科特。我重申一下史考特剛才所說的話，並向你們保證，我們有信心加快 ARR 成長，實現 2020 財年的 ARR 和自由現金流目標，並且我們已經制定了切實可行的計劃來實現這些目標。鑑於我們在今年年底看到的變化，我們將降低訂閱用戶複合年增長率並提高 ARPS 複合年增長率，這並不令人意外，這與我們在核心業務和雲端業務中減少高價值訂閱用戶的趨勢一致。轉型工作正在按計劃進行，這些模式調整也是出於正確的原因。我們將在3月28日的投資者日上詳細介紹所有細節。

Now if we look back at the year, we've taken significant action to realign our investments and position Autodesk to meet our long-term goals. We are investing and building and expanding the digital infrastructure of the company, increasing go-to-market and development spend for the construction opportunity and maintaining development of our core products.

現在回顧過去一年，我們採取了重大行動來重新調整投資方向，使 Autodesk 能夠實現我們的長期目標。我們正在投資、建造和擴展公司的數位基礎設施，增加市場推廣和開發支出以抓住建設機遇，並維持我們核心產品的開發。

I'll finish by repeating the 3 strategic priorities that will drive long-term success at Autodesk: completing the subscription transition; digitizing the company; and reimagining manufacturing, construction and production. We have already made significant progress in addressing the tremendous new market opportunity in the construction market, and we will continue to pursue that market aggressively.

最後，我重申推動 Autodesk 長期成功的 3 項策略重點：完成訂閱模式轉型；實現公司數位化；以及重新構想製造、建築和生產。我們在掌握建築市場龐大的新市場機會方面已經取得了顯著進展，我們將繼續積極開拓該市場。

In addition, some of you may have noticed that we are increasing our efforts in the manufacturing space as we just opened a new advanced manufacturing facility in Birmingham to highlight the work we're doing to move product design and manufacturing companies to a new hybrid, additive and subtractive future. You'll see more of that over the next couple of years, and you'll also begin to see the first results of our efforts to reimagine production.

此外，你們中的一些人可能已經注意到，我們正在加大在製造業領域的投入，因為我們剛剛在伯明翰開設了一家新的先進製造工廠，以突出我們為推動產品設計和製造公司邁向新的混合、增材和減材未來所做的工作。在接下來的幾年裡，你會看到更多這樣的情況，你也會開始看到我們重新構想生產方式的努力的初步成果。

To wrap things up, I want to thank our customers, but especially recognize our employees and partners who have worked so hard to make last year a success. We're excited to be now in the growth stage of the transition, to see accelerated growth in ARR and to be another step further along the journey of our transition. We're confident in our long-term plans and ability to execute while providing our customers with greater flexibility, more compelling products and a better user experience.

最後，我要感謝我們的客戶，但尤其要感謝我們的員工和合作夥伴，他們為去年的成功付出了巨大的努力。我們很高興現在進入了轉型發展的成長階段，看到了 ARR 的加速成長，並在轉型之旅中又向前邁進了一步。我們對我們的長期規劃和執行能力充滿信心，同時我們將為客戶提供更大的靈活性、更具吸引力的產品和更好的用戶體驗。

Operator, we now like to open the call up for questions.

操作員，現在我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Philip Winslow with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的菲利普‧溫斯洛。

Obviously, we've been focused on ARPS since mid-2015, so it's really exciting to see the inflection here in that number in Q4. So congratulations on that. And my question is on ARPS. Obviously, you said you're going to give us more details in terms of just the framework for the long-term guidance at Analyst Day. But wonder if you could talk about sort of '19 and '20, the puts and takes that you see, because there's a lot of things going on. Obviously, the price increases on maintenance, the less discounting on the M2S as well as just discounting overall. Just help us kind of frame out the puts and takes here of ARPS as you think about it for 2020.

顯然，我們從 2015 年年中開始就一直關注 ARPS，所以看到該數字在第四季度出現轉折點真的令人興奮。所以，恭喜你。我的問題是關於ARPS的。顯然，您說過會在分析師日上向我們提供更多關於長期指引框架的細節。但我想知道您是否可以談談 2019 年和 2020 年的情況，您看到的買賣交易，因為有很多事情正在發生。顯然，維護費用上漲，M2S 的折扣減少，整體折扣也減少。請您幫我們整理一下您在 2020 年對 ARPS 的看法，包括它的買入和賣出情況。

Yes. So let me give you a little bit of perspective on what's driving this. First, kind of let me frame the problem a little bit. One of the things -- I want to make sure you're seeing the same thing that we saw. So the core is doing incredibly well. Subs base grew 14% year-over-year last year. We're going to see that number continue moving forward, at least at that level, which is in line with historical levels. So the core is doing really good. And when you look forward, you guys have probably noticed where we're at with our guide. Most of that guide is due to our reset expectations in cloud. So you're zeroing in on exactly the right thing right now on ARPS. So what's driving the ARPS, specifically? So what we're seeing is an acceleration of some of the strategies that we already put in place and we've talked about in the past. The first ones being the upsell to collections. Like I said in the prepared remarks, we're seeing an acceleration. More people are -- as they move from M2S, are taking us up on the move to collections. More people in the run rate of our core business are moving to collections. You're going to see those phenomena play out into next year and into beyond. The other thing that's getting accelerated right now is our price realization efforts, and this comes from basically 3 components. One, better execution on the eStore, which, by the way, very high price realization channel. Our renewal base changes in terms of the channel costs to renew product subscriptions. We're making some changes there. We've made some changes in the low end margins of our business, particularly around LTs. That is accelerating our price realization. And we're doing much better in terms of managing the promo discounts across the products. All of those things and the fact that they are accelerating are going to drive up ARPS as we move into next year and beyond.

是的。那麼，讓我來為你分析一下這件事背後的驅動因素。首先，讓我稍微描述一下這個問題。其中一件事——我想確保你們看到的和我們看到的是一樣的。所以核心部分運作得非常出色。去年訂閱用戶數量較去年同期成長 14%。我們將看到這個數字繼續增長，至少會保持在這個水平，這與歷史水平相符。所以核心部分運行得非常好。展望未來，你們可能已經注意到我們的指南進展到了什麼階段。該指南的大部分內容源自於我們對雲端技術的重新預期。所以你現在在 ARPS 上正精準地把握住了重點。那麼，具體是什麼因素在驅動 ARPS 呢？所以我們現在看到的是，我們已經實施並在過去討論過的一些策略正在加速。首先是向收藏品系列追加銷售。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們看到這種情況正在加速發展。隨著越來越多的人從 M2S 轉向收藏，他們也開始接受我們提出的收藏方式。在我們核心業務的日常營運中，越來越多的人正在轉職到催收部門。你會看到這些現象延續到明年甚至更久。另一個專案前正在加速的措施是我們的價格實現工作，這主要來自三個面向。第一，更好地執行 eStore 的運營，順便說一句，這是一個價格實現率非常高的管道。我們的續訂基礎會隨著產品訂閱續訂通路成本的變化而改變。我們正在那裡做一些改變。我們對業務的低端利潤率進行了一些調整，尤其是在長期產品方面。這將加速我們的價格實現。我們在產品促銷折扣管理方面做得好多了。所有這些因素，以及它們加速發展的現狀，都將推動明年及以後平均每戶收入（ARPS）的成長。

And our next question will come from the line of Saket Kalia with Barclays.

接下來，我們將提出來自巴克萊銀行的 Saket Kalia 的問題。

First, maybe for you, Andrew. Thanks a bunch for the example on the Canadian engineering firm to kind of show that net add and ARR dynamic, but just to make sure that we understand. The question is, are customers buying for fewer engineers? I guess, why is it that a collection is able to handle fewer seats if, presumably, seats are a good proxy for employees? And I guess, I think we all appreciate the ARR lift that you're getting but talk us through why you think about this -- I guess, how you think about this dynamic when you think seat share within your customers, if that makes sense.

首先，或許對你來說是這樣，安德魯。非常感謝您舉出加拿大工程公司的例子來說明淨新增收入和年度經常性收入的動態變化，但為了確保我們理解，我還是想再確認一下。問題是，客戶是否需要採購更少的工程師？我想，如果座位數可以很好地代表員工人數，那麼為什麼一個收藏品能夠容納的座位數會更少呢？我想，我們都很欣賞您獲得的 ARR 提升，但請您談談您為什麼這樣想——我想，當您考慮客戶席位共享時，您是如何看待這種動態的，如果我的意思表達清楚的話。

Yes. Saket, I'm really glad you asked this question, all right? So this is the dynamic of subscriptions versus users, all right? And this is an anomaly of how we're counting our business. So what you saw in that example is each user actually had 2 subscriptions. So the number of users in this company did not change at all, it just so happened that each user had a seat of AutoCAD and a seat of Navisworks Manage sitting on their desktop. So what happens is, is the customer said, "Well, I can now take this M2S offer, move all of those seats to collections." Not only do they get AutoCAD and Navisworks Manage, but they get Revit as well. And that's what the customer did. So the number of engineers sitting there, exactly the same. The number of subscriptions sitting on each engineer's desktop, 1 from 2. Make sense?

是的。薩凱特，我很高興你問了這個問題，好嗎？這就是訂閱用戶與用戶之間的動態關係，懂了嗎？這是我們統計業務方式上的異常現象。所以，你在那個例子中看到的是，每個用戶實際上都有 2 個訂閱。所以這家公司的使用者數量根本沒有變化，只是每個使用者的桌面上都剛好安裝了 AutoCAD 和 Navisworks Manage 兩個軟體。所以，客戶會說：「好吧，我現在可以接受 M2S 的方案，把所有席位都轉移到軟體集合中。」他們不僅可以獲得 AutoCAD 和 Navisworks Manage，還可以獲得 Revit。顧客就是這麼做的。所以坐在那裡的工程師人數，完全一樣。每位工程師桌面上的訂閱數量，1 到 2 個。明白了嗎？

That does. That makes a lot of sense. Maybe...

確實如此。這很有道理。或許...

We're seeing that broadly.

我們看到這種情況普遍存在。

Got it. Maybe from my follow-up, just a little bit of extension of Phil's question. Could either you or Scott just maybe talk a little bit about the shape of M2S in fiscal '19? I guess, it feels like we saw a nice reaction to some of the pricing strategies here in fiscal '18. I believe the next action will build on that. Can you just maybe walk us through how you're thinking about the maintenance space by the end of fiscal '19? And tying it back to ARPS it back to ARPS, how should we think about the impact that, that could have on ARPS?

知道了。或許我的後續問題是對菲爾問題的稍作補充。您或 Scott 能否稍微談談 M2S 在 2019 財年的發展規劃？我想，我們在 2018 財年看到的一些定價策略得到了不錯的迴響。我相信下一步行動會在此基礎上展開。您能否簡單介紹一下您對 2019 財政年度結束維護領域的規劃？再回到 ARPS，我們該如何看待這可能對 ARPS 產生的影響？

Yes, Saket, it's a great question. We are expecting to see an acceleration of people, maintenance subscribers, that as they come up to the point of renewal, seeing them move to product subscription. It's already moved faster than we expected. As you know, in fiscal '18, 110,000 migrations in Q3, 168,000 in Q4. Both of those numbers were higher than expected. As we look at next year, the economics change again, and the price to renew goes up 10%, the price to convert only goes up 5%. So the economics actually swing in favor of conversion even more strongly. And of course, the product sub has higher value to our customers in terms of access and ease of management. So I think we'll see it accelerate. Now what we haven't done is gone into trying to forecast each of the subcomponents to give you a sense of that, but I think our expectation all along was that fiscal '19 was the biggest year for M2S conversions. And I think seeing how quickly it's already moved in fiscal '18, I think we will see that acceleration happen again in fiscal '19. In terms of the effect on ARPS, I don't think it has a massive effect either way. The price to convert or the price to renew is still relatively close, a little bit more expensive to renew maintenance. But I don't think it will have a big -- I don't think that by itself will have a big effect. What is likely to have a bigger effect is people who, at the point of migration, from maintenance to subscription, to people who do like the example we used in the opening commentary and actually move up from individual licenses up to the collection.

是的，薩凱特，這是一個很好的問題。我們預計，隨著維護訂閱用戶即將續訂，我們將看到越來越多的人轉向產品訂閱。進展速度已經超出我們的預期了。如您所知，在 2018 財年，第三季有 110,000 次遷移，第四季有 168,000 次遷移。這兩個數字都高於預期。展望明年，經濟情勢再次發生變化，續約價格上漲 10%，轉換價格僅上漲 5%。因此，從經濟角度來看，轉換實際上更加有利。當然，就存取和易於管理而言，產品子版塊對我們的客戶來說具有更高的價值。所以我認為我們會看到它加速發展。現在我們還沒有做的是嘗試預測每個子組件，以便讓您對此有所了解，但我認為我們一直預期 2019 財年是 M2S 轉換量最大的一年。鑑於 2018 財年的發展速度，我認為 2019 財年我們將再次看到這種加速發展。就對ARPS的影響而言，我認為無論從哪個方面來看，都不會產生巨大的影響。轉換價格和續約價格仍然比較接近，續訂維修費用略高一些。但我認為它本身不會產生很大的影響。可能產生更大影響的是那些在遷移點從維護模式過渡到訂閱模式的人，就像我們在開篇評論中舉的例子一樣，他們實際上從個人許可證升級到了合集。

And our next question will come from the line of Sterling Auty with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將提出來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂的問題。

Based on the positive comments that you made around the number of users eligible to move to subscription that did and some of the other elements, is there a read-through on churn? So in other words, has churn actually improved over the last couple of quarters?

根據您對符合訂閱資格的用戶數量以及其他一些因素所作出的正面評價，能否對用戶流失率進行一些分析？換句話說，過去幾季客戶流失率是否有改善？

So in fact, Sterling, what we've seen is there's absolutely no change in the churn rate of the maintenance base. So the maintenance base quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, is holding solidly at the same kind of renewal rates we've seen historically. What you just see is more people are deciding to take the maintenance-to-subscription offer, and of those people, even more, an acceleration over the previous quarter, are choosing to go to collections. But the actual renewal rate of that base has remained solidly intact on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis and even trend-wise.

所以實際上，斯特林，我們看到的是維護人員的流失率完全沒有改變。因此，維護基礎環比、同比均保持穩定，續約率與我們歷史上看到的水平相當。你看到的是，越來越多的人選擇接受維護轉訂閱的方案，而這些人中，選擇催收的比例甚至比上一季還要高。但該基礎的實際續約率在季度環比、年度同比以及趨勢上都保持了穩定。

And to your point, Sterling, that's an aggregator renewal rate. We do it on seat count today. So what it implies is because you've got consolidation going on, the remainder is actually seeing a bit of an uptick in renewal rate, right? Because some of them are dropping off -- like the example we pointed to, are dropping of certain subscribers as they consolidate up to collections. So I think it's -- we're very pleased with the renewal rates we're seeing in aggregate.

斯特林，你說得對，那是聚合續約費率。今天我們就按座位數來統計。所以這意味著，由於行業整合正在進行，其餘部分的續約率實際上有所上升，對嗎？因為其中一些用戶正在流失——就像我們指出的例子一樣，隨著他們合併到收藏集，某些訂閱用戶正在流失。所以我覺得——我們對目前的續約率總體上非常滿意。

All right. Great. And then one follow-up. On the EBAs, I think you measure the subscriptions in arrears, and I think that's an element that can cause some noise within the net subscriber count, if you will. I wonder if you can give us some insight into maybe some previous cohorts. So an EBA from 3, 4 quarters ago, how does that number of subscriptions' contribution into the total count fluctuate?

好的。偉大的。然後還有一次後續跟進。關於 EBA，我認為你們衡量的是滯後訂閱，我認為這可能會對淨訂閱用戶數造成一些幹擾。我想知道您能否為我們提供一些關於往屆學員的資訊。那麼，3、4 個季度前的 EBA，這些訂閱用戶數量對總數的貢獻是如何波動的呢？

Yes. The biggest impact we see is on the first measurement of MAUs, right? So a customer that buys an EBA, in every case, has had the large estate of perpetual licenses that are on maintenance that then convert those perpetual over to an EBA. So the first effect you see is maintenance subs go down, enterprise subs go up. And then the first thing we -- and because anyone in the company now has access to the license, we count MAUs instead of people who have access to it when they move to an EBA. After 90 days of measuring the MAUs, that's what gets added to the subscriber count. And what we typically see is a pretty significant uptick at that first read. Beyond that, we continue to see growth, and it's that volume growth in usage that drives one of the stats that we talked about in the opening commentary, which is we've had several renewals of EBAs in Q4, and on average, the renewal is 40% higher than the original EBA. That's driven by usage. That's not -- it's not as much price-driven as it is by usage. So big uptick on the first measurement and then some slight upticks out through the remainder of the 3 years.

是的。我們看到的最大影響體現在每月活躍用戶數的第一次測量上，對嗎？因此，購買 EBA 的客戶，在所有情況下，都擁有大量處於維護狀態的永久許可證，然後將這些永久許可證轉換為 EBA。所以你首先會看到的是維護訂閱用戶減少，企業訂閱用戶增加。然後，我們做的第一件事——因為現在公司裡的任何人都可以訪問該許可證，所以我們統計的是每月活躍用戶數，而不是在他們遷移到企業業務協議 (EBA) 時可以訪問該許可證的人數。經過 90 天的每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 測量後，該數值將計入訂閱用戶總數。我們通常看到的是，首次閱讀量出現相當大的增長。除此之外，我們還看到持續成長，正是這種使用量的成長推動了我們在開篇評論中提到的一個統計數據，即我們在第四季度續簽了多份企業協議，平均而言，續約金額比最初的企業協議金額高出 40%。這是由使用情況所驅動的。並非如此——這與其說是價格驅動，不如說是使用驅動。第一次測量結果大幅上升，然後在接下來的 3 年略有上升。

And our next question will come from the line of Zane Chrane with Bernstein Research.

接下來，我們將向伯恩斯坦研究公司的讚恩·克蘭提出一個問題。

I was wondering, how should we think about the timing and magnitude of the EBA billing cycle change to deferred revenue for fiscal '19 and '20? And then the second question, what's been the feedback from customers on the new features and functionality with a new model subscription towards legacy licenses? Is it the features and new functions that's driving the migration of license-only users? Or is it more of a financial decision given the upfront cost?

我想知道，對於 2019 財年和 2020 財年 EBA 帳單週期變更為遞延收入，我們該如何看待其時機和幅度？第二個問題是，客戶對採用新訂閱模式取代傳統授權的新功能和特性有何回饋？是這些特性和新功能推動了僅購買授權的用戶遷移嗎？或者，這更多的是出於前期成本的財務考量？

Okay. Zane, I'll take the front-end of that and let Andrew talk about the value prop of moving to subs. This was the first year where we migrated the majority -- the overwhelming majority of our EBAs over to annual billings. So it's still a 3-year commitment but billed annually. So if you notice, one of the stats that we're providing now is unbilled deferred. What that represents -- almost entirely represents is year 2 and year 3 of EBAs that we signed this year. A few other little small cats and dogs in there, but almost all of that $326 million is the second and third year of the EBAs we signed this year. So you can tell, half of that $326 million will come out in fiscal '19. The other half will come out in fiscal '20. In fiscal '19, we'll sign another cohort of EBAs, all right? And in each case, those will also be on annual billing. So I expect to see that $326 million balance grow this year as we add 2 more years of unbilled deferred to the balance but only bill 1 year out of that $326 million, right? So the $326 million will be something higher at the end of fiscal '19. I think it's pretty straightforward. And we'll provide you those stats each quarter. It's pretty straightforward for you to set up a quick waterfall model and understand how that's going to accrete into future billings.

好的。Zane，我來負責前期部分，讓 Andrew 來談談轉向訂閱的價值主張。今年是我們首次將絕大多數（絕大多數）企業協議 (EBA) 改為年度結算。所以還是三年合約，但按年計費。所以如果你注意到的話，我們現在提供的統計數據之一是未計費的延期付款。這幾乎完全代表了我們今年簽署的第二年和第三年的企業協議。裡面還有一些其他的小貓小狗，但那 3.26 億美元幾乎全部都是我們今年簽署的第二年和第三年的企業協議。所以你可以看出，這 3.26 億美元中的一半將在 2019 財年發放。另一半將在 2020 財年發放。2019財年，我們將簽署另一批企業協議，好嗎？而且，所有這些費用都將按年結算。因此，我預計今年 3.26 億美元的餘額會增長，因為我們將 2 年未開票的遞延款項添加到餘額中，但只會從這 3.26 億美元中開出 1 年的賬單，對嗎？因此，到 2019 財年末，3.26 億美元將會更高。我覺得很簡單。我們會每季向您提供這些統計數據。您可以輕鬆地建立一個簡單的瀑布模型，並了解它將如何累積到未來的帳單中。

Yes. And Zane, this is Andrew. With regards to the other question about what's driving their motion right now, if you're looking at a standalone product, right now, the financial incentive is probably the core thing that's driving the momentum in terms of maintenance-to-subscription moves, because they're essentially seeing the same product with a cloud wrap around it. We are getting a lot of feedback that the inclusion of some of the new cloud wrappers we put in with the products around collaboration and sharing, in conjunction with the support offering we've entangled with subscription, is adding a lot of value. When you look at collections and the increase in people choosing collections, that's more than just the financials incentive. The collections have actually been beefed up progressively. So for instance, in the product design and manufacturing collection, we've added machining capabilities into the collection, and people are noticing that and choosing the options. Same with the AEC collection, we've added some core capabilities that are making it more attractive for people to decide to take the collections option as they move. So it's kind of bifurcated in terms of standalone products and what we're seeing with collections. Everybody likes the [support].

是的。Zane，這位是 Andrew。至於另一個問題，即是什麼在推動他們目前的行動，如果你看到的是一款獨立產品，那麼目前來說，經濟激勵可能是推動維護模式向訂閱模式轉變的核心因素，因為他們本質上看到的是同一個產品，只是外加了一層雲服務。我們收到很多回饋，認為我們在產品中加入的一些新的雲端封裝技術，特別是圍繞協作和共享的功能，再加上我們與訂閱服務相結合的支援服務，正在創造很多價值。當你觀察催收業務以及越來越多的人選擇催收時，你會發現這不僅僅是經濟上的誘因。藏品其實已經逐步豐富起來。例如，在產品設計和製造系列中，我們添加了加工功能，人們注意到了這一點並選擇了這些選項。與 AEC 系列產品一樣，我們添加了一些核心功能，讓人們在搬家時更有動力選擇該系列產品。所以，從獨立產品和我們看到的系列產品來看，它有點分化。大家都喜歡這種支持。

Got it. Sorry, what was the last part?

知道了。抱歉，最後一部分是什麼？

I said everybody likes the support, the added support.

我說過，大家都喜歡這種支持，這種額外的支持。

And our next question will come from the line of Michael Nemeroff with Crédit Suisse.

接下來，我們將向瑞士信貸的邁克爾·內梅羅夫提出一個問題。

We've been talking with a lot of your channel partners throughout the quarter, and there's obviously a shift occurring in the channel's involvement and your new product sales. How -- Andrew, how do you view the channel's role in new product sales over the next couple of years? And what are you expecting from that?

本季我們一直在與你們的許多通路夥伴進行溝通，很明顯，通路的參與度和你們的新產品銷售正在轉變。Andrew，您如何看待未來幾年通路在新產品銷售中的作用？你對此有何期待？

Yes. So I think I've stated pretty emphatically over time that the channel, one, is still an important part of our business. As we move out to a steady state, we expect our business to be 50-50 split between direct and indirect. With everybody seeing a larger business, we'll have a larger direct business, they'll have a larger indirect business. So the channel is a strategic component of our execution moving forward. In the new businesses, when it comes to booting up new businesses, a lot of the hard work has to be done by Autodesk first. Channel partners really, really want to get engaged in new businesses early on, and we do engage them at various points in new businesses. But it's better if we do some of the early market seeding and market development efforts and then start to migrate the business moreover into the channel. We've been doing that with BIM 360 and some of the new applications, but we kind of try to take a measured approach. One area where we've really engaged partners in the future is the Forge platform and building out customizations on top of our cloud platform. That's an area we're encouraging partners to step up and get engaged in really early because that allows them to stitch together our solutions for their customers and really drive their services business, which we think is not only important for us long term with the fact that we're going to be seeing new types of custom solutions built on Forge, it's important for them.

是的。所以我認為我已經多次非常明確地表示，通路仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分。隨著業務進入穩定期，我們預計直接業務和間接業務的比例將達到 50:50。隨著大家看到業務規模擴大，我們的直接業務也會擴大，他們的間接業務也會擴大。因此，通路是我們未來執行策略的重要組成部分。對於新業務而言，在啟動新業務時，Autodesk 首先需要完成許多艱苦的工作。通路夥伴非常希望能儘早參與到新業務中來，我們也會在新業務的各個階段與他們合作。但如果我們先進行一些早期的市場播種和市場開發工作，然後再逐步將業務轉移到通路中，那就更好了。我們一直在使用 BIM 360 和一些新的應用程式來實現這一點，但我們盡量採取穩健的方法。我們真正與合作夥伴共同展望未來的一個領域是 Forge 平台，以及在我們雲端平台之上建立客製化解決方案。我們鼓勵合作夥伴儘早參與這個領域中來，因為這能讓他們為客戶整合我們的解決方案，真正推動他們的服務業務發展。我們認為，這不僅對我們長遠發展很重要（因為我們將看到基於 Forge 構建的新型客製化解決方案），而且對他們來說也很重要。

And our next question will come from the line of Heather Bellini with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將向高盛的 Heather Bellini 提出一個問題。

I was just wondering, Andrew, how do you feel about cloud as you look further out as being a TAM expander? There's been a lot of question talking you through kind of how you get here to $6 in free cash flow. And by the way, I'm assuming you guys didn't explicitly state that, but, I guess, people are asking if that's still your target. And then when you look out to your further target, the fiscal '23 target, how important is cloud as a TAM expander to get to that level? And what do you see as being a driver for that to drive adoption?

安德魯，我只是好奇，作為一家拓展TAM的公司，你對雲端運算有何看法？很多人問過我，如何才能達到 6 美元的自由現金流。順便說一句，我猜你們沒有明確說明，但是，我想大家都在問這是否仍然是你們的目標。那麼，當你展望更遠的目標，也就是 2023 財年的目標時，雲端運算作為 TAM 擴張工具對於實現該目標有多重要？您認為推動其普及的驅動因素是什麼？

All right. Thanks, Heather. So first off, let's be very clear, we are affirming the $6 and we're committed to that. So let me be super clear on that one. So now when we look at the cloud, so let's be super clear about a few facts. So first off, in Q4, we added 45,000 cloud subscriptions in the quarter, okay? A lot of people would love to have that number. So that's the net adds. Yes, it's the net adds. So there's a robust add, we have record billings, robust billings growth. The cloud is right where we expect it to be at this point. What we've decided to do strategically, and I think it was appropriate, is we've deemphasized and moved away from these super low-end cloud subscriptions we had. They came under the guise of BIM 360 team and Fusion 360 team and moved much more to our portfolio strategy around things like Docs and Field and the higher-value Fusion offerings. That was a very deliberate choice, and that's why you see some of these subscription guidances that are being heavily impacted by the change in the way we're executing on cloud. But now as you look out forward in terms of our business development efforts in the cloud, we're exactly where we should be in the cycle as we move to FY '23. So one more fact, just to comment on FY '23 before I talk about the cloud, is the business model transformation, the move to subscription of the core business doesn't just suddenly run out of steam as we move to FY '23. It provides a solid growing foundation that we build upon. But to get to those FY '23 targets, you're definitely going to see us add a lot more cloud business as we get to FY '23. It's not necessary for FY '20. It's absolutely part of the FY '23 plan. And you're going to see us grow that both organically and inorganically, like we've done with any new business in the past.

好的。謝謝你，希瑟。首先，我們要明確一點，我們確認每股 6 美元的價格，我們承諾會堅持這個價格。所以，讓我把這一點說清楚。現在我們來看雲，所以讓我們先明確幾個事實。首先，在第四季度，我們新增了 45,000 個雲端訂閱，好嗎？很多人都想要那個號碼。這就是淨增人數。是的，是淨增流量。所以新增業務強勁，我們的帳單金額創下新高，帳單金額實現了強勁成長。目前雲層的位置正如我們預期的那樣。我們從策略上決定（我認為這是恰當的），我們減少了對這些超低端雲端訂閱的重視，並逐步放棄了這些訂閱。他們以 BIM 360 團隊和 Fusion 360 團隊的名義出現，並更多地轉向我們圍繞 Docs 和 Field 以及更高價值的 Fusion 產品等產品組合策略。這是一個經過深思熟慮的選擇，因此你會看到一些訂閱指南受到了我們在雲端執行方式變化的嚴重影響。但現在，展望我們在雲端運算領域的業務發展，隨著我們邁向 2023 財年，我們正處於週期中應該在的位置。所以，在談論雲端運算之前，我想再補充一點關於 2023 財年的事實：商業模式的轉型，核心業務向訂閱模式的轉變，並不會隨著我們進入 2023 財年而突然失去動力。它為我們未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。但要實現 2023 財年的目標，隨著 2023 財年的到來，你們一定會看到我們增加更多的雲端業務。2020財年不需要。這絕對是2023財年計畫的一部分。你會看到我們透過有機成長和非有機成長來實現這一目標，就像我們過去發展任何新業務一樣。

And our next questions will come from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer with Griffin Securities.

接下來，我們將向 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer 提問。

First question, Andrew, maybe you touched on this, is the role of the eStore. I think you said about $100 million from fiscal '18. And at some point, you expected it to be at least half of the direct business, which would mean 1/4 of the total business. So if by, let's say, fiscal '22, '23, you're a $4 billion-plus company, you're looking at potentially roughly a $1 billion eStore business. So if the math is wrong, tell me, but could you talk about the infrastructure scaling requirements or mix expectations that you have to get to that kind of multiplier of your eStore business from fiscal '18? And then last question has to do with your product road map or your product development execution. You did that very well starting 15 years ago with the maintenance program moving to an annual release, and that sustained your flywheel for recurring revenue. Given all the changes in the company, you talked about AU, in terms of core products and changes in R&D, R&D management and all the rest, could you talk about your execution plans for development not just in cloud over the next year or 2 to make sure that you keep that flywheel going for recurring revenue?

安德魯，第一個問題，也許你已經提到過了，就是網路商店的角色。我想你之前說過，2018財年大約有1億美元。而且在某個時候，你期望它至少能佔到直接業務的一半，也就是總業務的四分之一。所以，假設到 2022 財年或 2023 財年，你的公司市值超過 40 億美元，那麼你的網上商店業務規模可能達到 10 億美元左右。如果計算有誤，請告訴我。但是，您能否談談基礎設施擴展要求或預期，以便從 2018 財年開始實現您的網上商店業務的這種倍增效應？最後一個問題與你們的產品路線圖或產品開發執行有關。15 年前，你們從維護計劃轉向年度發布，做得非常好，這維持了你們的經常性收入的飛輪效應。鑑於公司發生的所有變化，您談到了澳洲市場，包括核心產品、研發變化、研發管理等等，您能否談談未來一兩年內，除了雲端業務之外的其他發展執行計劃，以確保持續的收入成長？

Yes. Okay. So let me start with the infrastructure question. So you're right, we'd be moving up close to $1 billion eStore business as we move out into those outlying years. And infrastructure investment is required to make sure that we managed that base in the appropriate way. So I talked about this whole effort about digitizing the company and investing in digitizing the company. We already have the transactional infrastructure to get to that number. So we could take the orders, we can manage the entitlements, but there's that whole wrapper of infrastructure around $1 billion base. I mean, just think how many subscribers that's going to be. It's in the millions, right? And you want to take care of that base, you want to engage with that base, you want to have intelligence on that base so that you can easily see what's going on with those customers. That's the infrastructure we're building out. The inward-facing infrastructure that allows us to understand the customer that came to us electronically but also the infrastructure that faces the customer that allows them to, on their own, without any intervention from an Autodesk person, manage their relationship with Autodesk. So you'll see us building out both of those pieces of infrastructure over time. Right now, obviously, we've already got the core transactional infrastructure to drive the results here. Now when we talk about the R&D cadence, so one of the things I did, and I think you astutely notice this, is that we split the development efforts up into essentially what is the core business design and creation products, Inventor, AutoCAD, Revit, Max, Maya; and the new business products, essentially around the cloud; construction-based products; the new kind of advanced manufacturing products. One of the key things that's going on inside the design and creation organization is spinning that flywheel on development, what is a rapid cadence of small, incremental additions and upgrade to the product that keep the customer seeing progress. Now they're going to see progress not only in the product, but for those people who manage large installations over the next 18 months or so, they're going to see progress on how easy it is to manage their installations with Autodesk. So over a 12- to 18-month period, people are going to see a lot of functionality to show up. The experience we aspire to, Jay, is kind of like what you're seeing with Office 365 right now where these little kind of updates come in and it gives you a quick little dialogue that says, "Here's the things that I just -- we just updated for your Office experience." That's where we're heading. We're actually making very good progress in that direction. And that's how customers are going to be able to digest a continuous stream of upgrades without this kind of big thud that we used to do.

是的。好的。那麼，就讓我先從基礎設施問題開始。所以你說得對，隨著我們進入最後幾年，我們的電商業務規模將接近 10 億美元。我們需要進行基礎設施投資，以確保我們以適當的方式管理這個基地。所以我談到了公司數位轉型和對公司數位化進行投資的整個過程。我們已經具備達到該數字所需的交易基礎設施。所以我們可以接受訂單，我們可以管理權益，但圍繞著10億美元的基礎設施還有一整套體系需要建造。我的意思是，想想那會有多少訂閱者。金額高達數百萬，對吧？你想維護好這個客戶群，你想與這個客戶群互動，你想掌握這個客戶群的信息，以便你能夠輕鬆地了解這些客戶的情況。這就是我們正在建設的基礎設施。內部基礎設施使我們能夠了解透過電子方式找到我們的客戶，同時也能夠讓客戶在無需 Autodesk 人員幹預的情況下，自行管理他們與 Autodesk 的關係。所以隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們逐步改善這兩個基礎設施。顯然，目前我們已經擁有推動成果的核心交易基礎架構。現在，當我們談到研發節奏時，我所做的一件事（我想您已經敏銳地註意到了這一點）是，我們將研發工作分為兩部分：核心業務設計和創建產品，如 Inventor、AutoCAD、Revit、Max、Maya；以及新的業務產品，主要圍繞雲技術；基於建築的產品；新型先進製造產品。設計和創作組織內部正在發生的一件關鍵事情是推動產品開發，即快速地進行小的、漸進式的添加和升級，使客戶能夠持續看到進步。現在，他們不僅會在產品方面看到進步，而且在接下來的 18 個月左右的時間裡，對於管理大型安裝專案的人來說，他們還會看到使用 Autodesk 管理安裝專案的便利性得到提升。因此，在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，人們將會看到許多功能陸續推出。傑伊，我們想要達到的體驗有點像你現在在 Office 365 中看到的那種，它會推送一些小更新，並彈出一個簡短的對話框，告訴你「我們剛剛更新了你的 Office 使用體驗」。這就是我們努力的方向。我們在這方面確實取得了非常好的進展。這樣一來，客戶就能更輕鬆地接受持續不斷的升級，而不會像以前那樣感到措手不及。

And our next question will come from the line of Ken Talanian with Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將向 Evercore ISI 的 Ken Talanian 提出一個問題。

So I was wondering if you could give us a sense of what kind of uptake you've seen from nonsubscribers during the year. And then any plans to address that base going into fiscal '19?

所以我想知道您是否可以大致介紹一下，在這一年中，您從非訂閱用戶那裡獲得了怎樣的轉換率。那麼，在進入 2019 財年時，是否有任何計劃來解決這一問題？

Yes. So look, we've -- historically, the nonsubscribers are kind of absorbed into our run rate. We run promos. We've been running promos on a cadence of about twice a year. So you saw that we did fairly successful in the promos this year. I can't remember exactly the number of nonsubscribers we brought in through promos last year. It was -- we did 2 promos, one in Q1 and one in Q3. What we're doing this year as we move forward, one, on the nonpaying, nonsubscriber side, this is the year we're kind of instrumenting our license compliance efforts. So we're actually putting out more intelligence and capability that actually tell the customer in the product that they are working with a noncompliant copy and maybe they want to investigate how they got there and also allowing them to contact us quickly and buy. If we look at what we did with the legacy -- what we're doing with the legacy base, the nonsubscribers that have fallen off maintenance and they are sitting on all perpetual licenses, we're actually rolling out a new set of promos at lower discounts but actually had some insurance policies built into it where if the customer moves and falls off 2 years from now, they can default back to the old perpetual release they had at the time they moved. They don't get the latest, they just get their old release. So it's like an insurance policy to provide even more attraction to that base to come and move forward. We're going to see how that works as we move into this year. This past year, just -- I got the number in front of me, we moved 50,000 users into our paying base from promotions like this. We actually expect this new promotion to do as well, if not better, than some of those past promotions.

是的。所以你看，從歷史上看，非訂閱用戶基本上都被納入了我們的營運速度。我們會進行促銷活動。我們大約每年都會進行兩次促銷活動。所以你們也看到了，我們今年的促銷活動相當成功。我記不清去年我們透過促銷活動究竟帶來了多少非訂閱用戶。確實如此——我們做了兩次促銷活動，一次在第一季度，一次在第三季度。今年我們將繼續推進以下工作：第一，在非付費、非訂閱用戶方面，今年我們將著手加強授權合規工作。因此，我們實際上正在推出更多智慧和功能，以便在產品中告知客戶他們正在使用不合規的副本，並可能讓他們調查自己是如何遇到這種情況的，同時還允許他們快速聯繫我們併購買。如果我們看看我們對舊版產品做了什麼——我們正在對舊版產品基礎、那些已經停止維護但仍然持有永久許可證的非訂閱用戶做什麼，我們實際上正在推出一套新的促銷活動，折扣更低，但實際上其中也包含一些保險政策，如果客戶在兩年後搬家並停止維護，他們可以恢復到搬家時擁有的舊版永久許可證。他們得不到最新版本，只能得到舊版本。所以這就像是一份保險，能為吸引更多現有客戶群前來發展提供更大的吸引力。我們將看看今年情況會如何發展。去年，我手邊就有了數據，我們透過這樣的促銷活動，將 5 萬名用戶轉移到了我們的付費用戶群。我們預期這項新促銷活動的效果即使不如以往的某些促銷活動，也至少會與之持平。

Yes. And Ken, promotions are one way that we go after the legacy base. As you know, in many cases, they end up coming back to us as the product they are using, if they're not on maintenance, the product they're using ages out. And as it gets older and older, their ability to communicate with other partners around them, whether they're in manufacturing and part of a supply chain or it's in their contractor on AEC, as their version becomes more and more down level, their ability to exchange files becomes harder and harder. File types change through time. So promos is one way, kind of a financial lever to pull. The other is they -- as the -- since all of these are network-type used products, in other words, they're used in conjunction with other companies, they end up needing to get to the latest release just to stay compliant.

是的。肯，晉升是我們爭取老客戶群的一種方式。如您所知，在許多情況下，如果他們沒有進行維護，他們使用的產品就會老化，最終他們還是會回到我們這裡。隨著電腦版本越來越舊，無論他們是在製造業還是供應鏈中，或者他們是建築、工程和施工 (AEC) 領域的承包商，他們與周圍其他合作夥伴溝通的能力都會下降，文件交換的能力也會變得越來越困難。文件類型會隨著時間而改變。所以促銷是一種手段，一種可以利用的財務槓桿。另一方面，由於這些都是網路型產品，換句話說，它們是與其他公司一起使用的，因此它們最終需要升級到最新版本才能保持合規性。

Great. And I guess, just a bigger picture question. Could you rank order what factors might cause you to exceed your current ARR growth targets for fiscal '19?

偉大的。我想，這其實是一個更宏觀的問題。能否請您依重要性排序，列出哪些因素可能導致您在 2019 財年超過目前的 ARR 成長目標？

Yes. I mean, that's a little bit of a loaded question. What I would say is that the -- what we've seen so far is faster progression in ARPS growth than we had previously anticipated, a lot of it based on the factors that, again, Andrew talked about earlier. Some of it is coming from consolidation of subscriptions where people are moving up to the collections at a faster pace than we saw. The uptick of maintenance-to-subscription has been a bit of a catalyst for that. eStore has been bigger than we expected, and we'll continue to drive that faster. Our renewal base -- remember, when we sell a new product through the channel, there's a higher margin for the channel partner than when we sell a renewal through a partner. And as our renewal base grows out through time, the lower channel cost, in effect, accretes to us as well. That's also driving ARPS. So there's a whole set of things that are driving ARPS growth even faster than we had expected. I'd say that's probably been the bigger upside. And you've seen subs in particular around cloud, subs are coming in at a slightly lower level but at a higher price point.

是的。我的意思是，這個問題有點刁鑽。我想說的是，到目前為止我們看到的 ARPS 成長速度比我們之前預期的要快，這很大程度上是基於 Andrew 之前提到的那些因素。部分原因是訂閱整合，人們升級到高級會員的速度比我們之前看到的要快得多。維護模式向訂閱模式轉變的趨勢在一定程度上促進了這一趨勢。網路商城的發展規模超出了我們的預期，我們將繼續加快這一進程。我們的續訂基礎—請記住，當我們透過通路銷售新產品時，通路合作夥伴的利潤率高於我們透過合作夥伴銷售續訂產品時的利潤率。隨著續約客戶群的不斷擴大，通路成本的降低其實也會讓我們受益。這也是推動 ARPS 成長的原因之一。因此，有許多因素正在推動 ARPS 的成長速度甚至超過了我們的預期。我認為這可能是最大的好處。而且你會發現，尤其是在雲端服務領域，訂閱用戶數量略有減少，但價格卻更高。

And our next question will come from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將向摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯提出問題。

So not to be too bearish, but we've seen 2 quarters in a row where the net subscriber adds have come in sort of below people's expectations, and you guys have taken your targets down. And if I'm not mistaken, there's 2 different explanations kind of for what -- why it happened. Last quarter, it was more about sort of heavily promoted cloud subscriptions not being #1 on a going-forward basis. And this quarter, it's more about the difference between what a subscriber is and what a subscription is. And subscriptions -- more subscriptions occurring to [onces] or you're getting -- collecting into 1 collection. How do we garner confidence that this is the last kind of takedown in terms of our net subscription add estimates on a going-forward basis? Is there any kind of visibility you could give us into sort of any sort of excess that might be in that base on a going-forward basis that you feel comfortable that this number is not coming down again?

所以，我不想過於悲觀，但我們已經連續兩季看到淨新增用戶數低於人們的預期，你們也因此下調了目標。如果我沒記錯的話，對於這件事發生的原因，有兩種不同的解釋。上個季度，重點在於大力推廣的雲端訂閱服務並沒有繼續保持領先地位。而本季度，重點更放在訂閱者和訂閱服務之間的差異。訂閱——多次訂閱[一次]或您正在獲取——收集到 1 個集合中。我們如何確信，就我們未來的淨新增訂閱用戶預測而言，這是最後一次用戶流失？您能否透露一下，未來該基數是否有任何過剩情況，以便您確信該數字不會再次下降？

First, let me acknowledge your frustration that you might be having with the way this has played out over the last 2 quarters. I just have to acknowledge that. I mean, it doesn't help you with your modeling, it doesn't help you with some of your core efforts. So I absolutely want to acknowledge that. I want to just go back to some fundamentals here so we get kind of level set, and then I'll answer your question as specifically as I can. So first off, remember that we broke out the core and the cloud deliberately now so that you can start seeing dynamics. The core grew 14% for the year. So the subs base in the core grew 14% for the year. That's in line with historical behavior. We're going to see that same number or greater moving forward. So the core shows some nice strength and stability, all right? What we did see this quarter that was not anticipated at the rates was this acceleration in the collections activity associated not only with the run rate with M2S. And it was an acceleration that was off the trend of the previous 2 quarters in terms of how fast people were moving. And yes, that did result in this consolidation resulting from upsell but for the right reasons. We saw the appreciation of ARR associated with that. So when you look forward to what we've done with the guide, like I said earlier, the vast majority or the -- most of that guide is due to our cloud reset expectation. And the majority of that cloud reset is due to simply not driving these super low-value cloud subscriptions. When you look at the core, our CAGR for FY '20 is essentially unchanged for the core business, right? So what can garner your confidence here is we understand a lot more what's going on with the cloud. We're now prepared for more acceleration around consolidation as we've seen it move forward. We know it will play out through FY '19. And we're holding to the CAGR for the core business that we expect to have in FY '20. And that's where we're at. You want to add anything else, Scott?

首先，我想承認，對於過去兩個季度發生的事情，您可能感到沮喪。我不得不承認這一點。我的意思是，它對你的建模沒有幫助，對你的某些核心工作也沒有幫助。所以我絕對要承認這一點。我想先回到一些基本概念，這樣我們就能達成共識，然後我會盡可能具體地回答你的問題。首先，請記住，我們現在特意將核心和雲端分開，以便您可以開始看到動態變化。核心業務全年成長14%。因此，核心用戶的訂閱用戶基數在這一年增長了 14%。這與歷史行為相符。我們預計未來這一數字還會維持不變，甚至更高。所以核心部分展現了不錯的強度和穩定性，對吧？本季我們看到的，與預期不同的是，收款活動的加速不僅與 M2S 的運行速度有關，而且與預期速度無關。而且，就人們的行動速度而言，這種加速趨勢與前兩季的趨勢截然不同。是的，這確實導致了此次因追加銷售而產生的整合，但這是為了正確的理由。我們看到了由此帶來的ARR（年度經常性收入）的提升。所以，當你展望我們對指南所做的工作時，就像我之前說的那樣，該指南的絕大部分內容都歸功於我們對雲端重置的預期。而雲端服務重置的大部分原因，只是因為沒有推動這些價值極低的雲端訂閱服務。從核心業務來看，我們2020財年的核心業務複合年增長率基本上保持不變，對嗎？因此，能夠增強您信心的一點是，我們對雲端運算的運作方式有了更深入的了解。隨著整合進程的推進，我們現在已經準備好迎接整合進程的進一步加速。我們知道這種情況會持續到 2019 財年。我們堅持2020財年核心業務的複合年增長率預期。這就是我們目前的處境。史考特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Keith, the only other thing I'd say is even in those 2 quarters, as you point out, with subs coming in, perhaps -- certainly lighter than everyone externally expected in Q3 and lighter than our own expectations in Q4. In each quarter, ARR performed nicely, and that really has been -- we've said all along, that's our top goal, is to drive ARR and to drive cash flow out of that ARR. If you remember Q3, ARR grew 24%, so faster than Q2 before that. Actually, it was the seventh consecutive quarter of increasing growth rate in ARR, and it grew again 25% in the quarter we just closed. So ARR continues to perform nicely even as subs have been a little bit lower than our expectations since in the last quarter.

是的。Keith，我唯一要補充的是，正如你所指出的，即使在那兩個季度中，隨著訂閱用戶的加入，或許——肯定比外界對第三季度的預期要低，也比我們自己對第四季度的預期要低。每個季度，ARR 的表現都很好，而這正是我們一直以來所說的，我們的首要目標是提高 ARR 並從 ARR 中產生現金流。如果你還記得第三季的數據，ARR成長了24%，比之前的第二季成長速度更快。事實上，這是 ARR 連續第七個季度實現成長率，而且在我們剛結束的這個季度，ARR 又成長了 25%。因此，儘管自上個季度以來訂閱用戶數量略低於我們的預期，但 ARR 仍然表現良好。

I definitely understand that ARR is the key number that you're looking at. But also want to have confidence in the components that's building out sort of that ARR. Sort of there's a trend line there going on in line with my model (inaudible).

我完全明白您關注的關鍵指標是 ARR（年度經常性收入）。但同時也希望對構成 ARR 的各個組成部分充滿信心。似乎那裡存在一條趨勢線，與我的模型一致（聽不清楚）。

I get that. I totally get that.

我明白了。我完全明白。

Now I want you to go back to that core strength that we're talking about here because that's the important driver. You layer on top of that, the factors we're talking about around ARPS appreciation that were associated with upsell to collections, that are price realization and the reduced promo activity, and by the way, don't underestimate how the acceleration of price realization has been -- is going to affect the year moving forward. Those are the things you want to pay attention to, the core. That's why we're trying to help by breaking out the 2.

現在我希望你們回到我們正在討論的核心優勢上來，因為那是重要的驅動力。除此之外，我們還要考慮與追加銷售到收藏品相關的 ARPS 增值因素，即價格實現和促銷活動減少。順便說一句，不要低估價格實現加速對未來一年的影響。這些才是你該關注的核心內容。這就是為什麼我們要透過拆分 2 來提供幫助的原因。

Longer-term, I mean, do you think there's any chance that you'd have a view on subscribers versus subscriptions?

從長遠來看，我的意思是，你認為你對訂閱用戶和訂閱制用戶有什麼看法嗎？

It's a conversation we have a lot. Part of the investment -- Andrew has talked about 3 big priorities that we're investing in. One of them is digitizing the company. Part of the effort there in digitizing the company is to be able to count users as opposed to subscriptions. Historically, we sold shrinkwrap product that had a license number with it. So you can track license numbers. What you can't always track on a one-to-one basis is who the actual user of that license. Part of the investment that we're making in digitizing the company will give us much better insight into account-level metrics and then within that usage message. So yes, we may get to that point, but we're not there today.

我們經常談論這個話題。投資的一部分——安德魯談到了我們正在投資的 3 個主要優先事項。其中一項是公司數位轉型。該公司數位轉型工作的一部分是為了能夠統計用戶數量而不是訂閱用戶數量。從歷史上看，我們銷售的收縮包裝產品都帶有許可證編號。這樣你就可以追蹤駕照號碼了。你無法始終逐一追蹤到的是該許可證的實際使用者是誰。我們正在對公司進行數位投資，其中一部分將使我們能夠更好地了解帳戶層級的指標，以及這些指標背後的使用情況資訊。所以，是的，我們或許會達到那個階段，但我們今天還沒有達到那個階段。

And our next question will come from the line of Monika Garg with KeyBanc.

接下來，我們將向 KeyBanc 的 Monika Garg 提問。

Sorry to go back to the ARPS point. If you look at your fiscal 2019 guidance, you're guiding ARR to about 30%, but your net sub adds growth is about 14%. That means you're guiding ARPS growth of some 16-ish percent. So could you walk through the math and factor kind of how we achieved this kind of 30% increase?

很抱歉又回到ARPS的問題上來。如果你看一下你 2019 財年的業績指引，你預期 ARR 將成長約 30%，但你的淨新增用戶成長率約為 14%。這意味著您引導的平均每美元收入成長約 16%。那麼，您能否詳細解釋一下我們是如何實現這 30% 的成長的呢？

Sure, Monika. And it sounds like you're looking for 605 guide. The midpoint of the guide to ARR under 606, which is really what I'd like everyone to adjust their models to, is 29%. But you math is still directionally right. And I think the ARPS growth drivers will be the components that we talked about. It's continuing upsell to industry collections. And particularly, as maintenance-to-subscription accelerates, what we're seeing is, as people make that choice, of those who are eligible to upgrade, more than 1/3 are taking that, right, which is -- so that's going to push more people to industry collections that obviously drives ARPS up. eStore will continue to grow. The renewal base is a big part of the ARPS growth. It's a significantly higher yield to Autodesk when a channel partner sells a renew versus selling a new product. And so as renewal becomes a bigger part of our overall revenue, obviously, the cost of selling through the channel comes down. That drives up our price realization. And we've made some very specific changes on partner margins around the low end, specifically AutoCAD LT and what those margins look like. So you add those factors together, along with kind of reduced promotional activity and discounting, that's what drives -- that's what's going to drive that ARPS growth rate. And if anything, what we've seen is it moved up faster than we expected.

當然可以，莫妮卡。聽起來你好像在找 605 指南。ARR 低於 606 的指南的中點是 29%，這才是真正我希望大家調整模型的目標。但你的計算方向仍然是正確的。我認為ARPS成長的驅動因素將是我們討論過的那些組成部分。它持續向行業收藏品進行追加銷售。尤其是隨著維護型服務向訂閱型服務的轉變加速，我們看到，當人們做出選擇時，在符合升級條件的人中，超過三分之一的人選擇了升級，對吧？ ——這將推動更多人轉向產業收款，這顯然會推高平均每付費率 (ARPS)。網上商店將繼續發展壯大。續租基礎是ARPS成長的重要組成部分。對 Autodesk 而言，通路夥伴銷售續約產品比銷售新產品能帶來更高的效益。因此，隨著續費在我們整體收入中所佔比例越來越大，透過通路銷售的成本顯然會下降。這會推高我們的實際售價。我們對低階產品（特別是 AutoCAD LT）的合作夥伴利潤率進行了一些非常具體的調整，具體調整了這些利潤率的組成。所以，把這些因素加在一起，再加上促銷活動和折扣的減少，這就是推動 ARPS 成長率的因素。而且，我們看到的情況是，它的上漲速度比我們預期的還要快。

Got it. Then just as a follow-up. Your first q revenue growth guidance is somewhere 14%, 14.5%, but your yearly guidance is somewhere 21%, 22%, which would mean steep kind of ramp acceleration in revenue growth toward second half. Maybe walk us through the factors that relate to the accelerate. Is it like ARPS growth is more second half-weighted or any of the [other] factors?

知道了。然後，作為後續問題。你們第一季的營收成長預期在 14% 到 14.5% 之間，但全年預期在 21% 到 22% 之間，這意味著下半年營收成長將大幅加速。或許可以跟我們解釋一下與加速相關的因素。ARPS成長是否更受到下半年或其他因素的影響？

Yes, it's exactly what it is. And if you recall -- so it's ARPS growth, mostly. We do see some growth in subs throughout the year, but it's mostly ARPS growth. But remember, too, the maintenance-to-subscription program, the annual change in price points on that, come into effect in Q2. So that also -- that not only affects Q2, but, of course, when we sell that, it drops into deferred revenue, it comes back out of deferred revenue as the year goes on. So it has a lesser effect earlier in the year and a bigger effect later in the year.

是的，事實正是如此。如果你還記得的話——所以主要是 ARPS 成長。我們看到全年訂閱用戶數量有所增長，但主要增長的是平均每次付費用戶數 (ARPS)。但也要記住，維護轉訂閱計劃以及該計劃的年度價格調整將於第二季生效。所以，這不僅會影響第二季度，而且，當然，當我們出售這些產品時，它會計入遞延收入，隨著時間的推移，它又會從遞延收入中轉出。因此，它在年初的影響較小，在年末的影響較大。

And our next question will come from the line of Steve Koenig with Wedbush Securities.

接下來，我們將向 Wedbush Securities 的 Steve Koenig 提問。

Thanks for your explanations on the mechanics of how this is going. I wanted to ask one question on maintenance subs and then just a follow-up question on ARR and then converting to billings growth. So on the maintenance subs, Scott, I think you said the expected decline in maintenance subs was primarily related to the M2S program. So it kind of leads me to the question, if that was the primary factor, what are the secondary factors in the decline in maintenance subs?

感謝您對整個過程運作機制的解釋。我想問一個關於維護訂閱的問題，然後再問一個關於 ARR 以及如何轉化為帳單成長的後續問題。斯科特，關於維護潛艇，我想你說過維護潛艇數量的預期下降主要與 M2S 計劃有關。所以這就引出了一個問題，如果這是主要因素，那麼導致維護訂閱用戶減少的次要因素是什麼？

Yes, there's always a certain amount of non-renew, right. We don't have 100% renewal rates, Steve. So as that -- as the maintenance base is bigger in Q4, that drives the other piece of why you saw the decline in maintenance subs. So 168,000 of the 244,000 that maintenance came down, 168,000 migrated. The remainder are some form of non-renew. Remember the example we gave though, right? That customer, those were 42 licenses on maintenance that converted over to 20 subs. So some of that non-renew is actually good news. It's individual licenses that are converting up to collections.

是的，總是會有一些合約不續簽，對吧。史蒂夫，我們的續約率並非百分之百。因此，由於第四季度維護用戶基數較大，這也解釋了為什麼維護用戶數量下降。因此，在因維護而下線的 244,000 台設備中，有 168,000 台進行了遷移。其餘部分屬於某種形式的不可續約合約。還記得我們舉的例子嗎？那位客戶，原本有 42 張維護許可證，後來轉換成了 20 個子許可證。所以，部分不續約其實是個好消息。是單一許可證正在轉換為集合。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then on the follow-up. Is there anything that could surprise you guys when it comes to eventually converting that ARR to billings growth? And then I want to sneak in maybe a related question, if I could define it that way. Thinking about post fiscal '20, how should we think about how ARPS and free cash flow, how that trajectory flows after fiscal '20? Should the ARPS growth peak in fiscal '20, then decelerate fairly gradually because you're still layering on subscriptions faster than you're [treating] the base? So how should we think about that longer-term trajectory as well?

知道了。知道了。好的。然後是後續跟進。在最終將年度經常性收入轉化為帳單成長的過程中，有沒有什麼事情會讓你們感到驚訝？然後，我想偷偷問一個相關的問題，如果可以這樣定義的話。展望 2020 財年之後，我們該如何看待平均每股盈餘 (ARPS) 和自由現金流，以及 2020 財年後的發展軌跡？ARPS 成長是否應該在 2020 財年達到峰值，然後逐漸放緩，因為訂閱用戶成長速度仍快於基礎用戶成長速度？那麼，我們該如何看待這種更長期的發展軌跡呢？

Okay. That's quite a suite of questions there, Steve. Let me take the billings one first. The -- I think the other thing to think about as we talk about ARPS and how that's going to grow and how that's going to drive billings out through fiscal '20. Billings -- so the 2 big drivers of cash flow, which I think is the source of your question, are net income, you have a good sense of that from the targets we've given; and billings, which drives deferred revenue growth. The only other effect besides the ARPS growth that will drive the billings side of that, that you need to bear in mind is we've always had a steady proportion of customers who buy multiyear. So if you go back to when -- before we started the transition, we were selling maintenance agreements. Somewhere between 20% and 25% of our customers who bought a maintenance agreement bought a multiyear. That's been pretty steady. Of course, when we launched maintenance-to-subscription, we cut that off. We cut off multiyear maintenance subs. What we see, interestingly, in products subs. off a much smaller base, of course, is many of them are also buying. In fact, it's almost the exact same proportion of product subs customers are buying multiyear as well. So as you're thinking about your billings model out through fiscal '20, remember that we've had a decline in fiscal '18 in billings driven by no multiyear maintenance. The same proportion of customers are also buying multiyear product subs. And as product subs becomes a bigger part of the base, that's going to drive billings as well. The other factor to layer in -- 2 other factors to layer in on that, the bleed back of unbilled deferred, which we talked about earlier with Zane's question, make sure you're modeling that in, right? Do we have a year of unbilled deferred that's built up to $326 million? That will build again in fiscal '19. And then by fiscal '20, we'll actually have 2 years of unbilled deferred leading back into the billings stream. So add that in. And then finally, just from a cash flow, not from a billing standpoint, bear in mind that fiscal '19 has these 2 onetime events that total about $130 million of cash outflows, partly driven by the cash payments for the restructuring, partly the exit tax from moving our operational center in Europe from Neuchâtel, Switzerland to Dublin, Ireland.

好的。史蒂夫，你問的問題真是不少。讓我先處理比林斯那份。我認為，在討論 ARPS 及其發展趨勢，以及它將如何推動 2020 財年帳單成長時，我們還需要考慮另一件事。帳單－我認為現金流的兩大驅動因素是淨收入（從我們給出的目標中你應該能很好地理解這一點）和帳單金額（它推動遞延收入成長）。除了 ARPS 成長之外，唯一會影響帳單方面的因素是，我們一直以來都有相當比例的客戶購買多年合約。所以，如果你回顧一下——在我們開始轉型之前，我們銷售的是維護協議。購買維護協議的客戶中，有 20% 到 25% 購買了多年協議。一直都很穩定。當然，當我們推出維護轉訂閱模式時，我們就取消了這項服務。我們終止了多年維護合約。有趣的是，我們在產品子版塊中看到了這一點。當然，由於基數較小，許多買家也在購買。事實上，多年期產品訂閱用戶的比例也幾乎完全相同。因此，在考慮 2020 財年的計費模式時，請記住，由於沒有多年維護，我們在 2018 財年的計費有所下降。同樣比例的顧客也購買了多年期產品訂閱。隨著產品訂閱用戶在用戶群中所佔比例越來越大，這也將推動帳單金額的成長。另一個需要考慮的因素——還有兩個因素需要考慮，即未開票遞延款項的回流，我們之前在回答 Zane 的問題時已經討論過，確保你把這一點也考慮進去，對吧？我們是否有高達 3.26 億美元的未結算遞延款項？2019財年，此趨勢將再次增強。到 2020 財年，我們實際上將有 2 年的未開立發票遞延款項重新進入帳單結算流程。所以，把這一點也加進去。最後，僅從現金流的角度來看，而不是從帳單的角度來看，請記住，2019 財年有兩個一次性事件，總計約 1.3 億美元的現金流出，部分原因是重組的現金支付，部分原因是將我們在歐洲的營運中心從瑞士納沙泰爾遷至愛爾蘭都柏林所產生的退出稅。

And the only point I'll add to that, Steve, just to reinforce what you said about multiyear, the multiyear is not going to happen for no reason at all. As we enter into fiscal '20, we're actually entering the first group of M2S customers that are seeing their M2S period end. So they're going to want to lock in their price. That's been a historic behavior. What happens is customers say, "Okay, I don't want to see -- I want some price stability out there." So they'll buy multiyear. And the fact that we had such a large tranche of initial M2S customers, you'll see that just naturally migrate into the business in FY '20.

史蒂夫，我只想補充一點，為了強調你所說的多年期項目，多年期項目絕對不會無緣無故發生。隨著我們進入 2020 財年，我們實際上迎來了第一批 M2S 客戶的 M2S 服務期結束。所以他們會想要鎖定價格。那是一種史無前例的行為。結果是，顧客會說：「好吧，我不想看到價格波動——我想要價格穩定。」所以他們會購買多年期合約。而事實上，我們擁有如此龐大的初始 M2S 客戶群，你會看到這自然而然地在 2020 財年融入業務中。

And then, guys, if you could answer the question I snuck in there, that would be great, which is how should we think about the trajectory after fiscal '20 in terms of growth rates as we layer on the subscription revenue and more of that until you get to more of a steady state? How should that progress?

各位，如果你們能回答我偷偷加進去的那個問題，那就太好了，那就是，在2020財年之後，隨著訂閱收入的不斷增加，以及更多類似收入的湧入，我們應該如何看待增長率的發展軌跡，直到達到更加穩定的狀態？這過程應該如何推進？

Steve, I think it's -- there's no big change to the path that we had laid out on that at our last Investor Day. Probably the better thing to do rather than try to tackle the moving parts here is to say we have our Investor Day 3 weeks from tomorrow here. And at that point, we'll not only give you a little more granularity on the path to fiscal '20, but we'll also give you a little more granularity on the 5-year plan. So maybe the best thing to do is to hold off on that until March 28.

史蒂夫，我認為——與我們在上次投資者日上製定的路線相比，不會有太大變化。與其費力處理這裡錯綜複雜的問題，或許更好的做法是宣布，我們的投資者日將在三週後的明天舉行。屆時，我們不僅會向您詳細介紹 2020 財年的規劃，還會向您詳細介紹 5 年計畫。所以，或許最好的方法是等到3月28日再做這件事。

Ladies and gentlemen, this is all the time we have for questions today. So now I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Dave Gennarelli, Investor Relations, for closing comments or remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天提問時間到此結束。現在，我想把會議交還給投資人關係部的戴夫‧詹納雷利先生，請他作總結發言。

Great. Well, thanks, everybody. As Scott just mentioned, we have our Investor Day coming up on March 28 here in our office in San Francisco. We'll also be at the Bernstein conference on April 10 in Boston. We're going to follow that up with an NDR in Boston on April 11 and in New York on April 12. If you have any questions in the meantime, you can reach me at (415) 507-6033. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝大家。正如 Scott 剛才提到的，我們將於 3 月 28 日在舊金山辦公室舉辦投資者日。4月10日，我們也會參加在波士頓舉行的伯恩斯坦會議。我們將於 4 月 11 日在波士頓和 4 月 12 日在紐約舉行 NDR 活動。在此期間，如有任何疑問，您可以撥打 (415) 507-6033 與我聯繫。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Everybody, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。程式到此結束，各位可以斷開連接了。祝大家今天過得愉快。