Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Autodesk fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 financial results conference call.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Autodesk 2016 財年第四季財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the meeting over to David Gennarelli, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

再次提醒，本次會議正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級總監大衛詹納雷利。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2016. Also on the line is Carl Bass, our CEO and Scott Herren, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of this call will be available at Autodesk.com/investor.

謝謝接線生。午安.感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2016 財年第四季和全年業績。我們的執行長卡爾·巴斯和財務長斯科特·赫倫也在線上。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，本次電話會議的錄音重播將在 Autodesk.com/investor 上提供。

As noted in our press release, we have published our prepared remarks on our website in advance of this call. Those remarks are intended to serve in place of extended formal comments, and we will not repeat them on this call. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the anticipated future performance of the Company such as, our guidance for the first quarter and full-year fiscal 2017, our long-term financial model guidance, the factors we use to estimate our guidance, including currency headwinds, expectations regarding our restructuring, our transition to new business models, our market opportunities and strategies, and trends for various products, geographies and industries.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們已提前在網站上公佈了我們準備好的演講稿。這些發言旨在代替冗長的正式發言，我們將在本次電話會議上不再贅述。在本次電話會議期間，我們將就未來事件和公司預期未來業績發表前瞻性聲明，例如我們對 2017 財年第一季和全年業績的指引、我們的長期財務模型指引、我們用於估算指引的因素（包括匯率不利因素）、關於我們重組的預期、我們向新業務模式的過渡、我們的市場機會和策略，以及各種產品、地區和產業的趨勢。

We caution you that such statements reflect the best judgment based on factors currently known to us, and that actual events or results could differ materially. Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, specifically our Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2015, our Form 10-Q for the periods ended April 30, July 31, and October 31, 2015 and our current reports on Form 8-K, including the Form 8-K furnished with today's press release and prepared remarks.

我們提醒您，此類聲明反映了我們根據目前已知因素做出的最佳判斷，實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。請參閱我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是我們 2015 財年的 10-K 表格、截至 2015 年 4 月 30 日、7 月 31 日和 10 月 31 日的 10-Q 表格以及我們當前的 8-K 表格報告，包括今天隨稿和準備的 8-K 表格報告，包括今天隨稿和

Those documents contain and identify important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those contained in our forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today.

這些文件包含並指明了可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果之間存在差異的重要風險和其他因素。本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述均以今日為準。

If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will provide guidance on today's call, but will not provide any further guidance or updates on our performance during the quarter unless we do so in a public forum.

如果今天之後重播或回顧此通話，通話期間提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。Autodesk公司聲明不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上提供指導，但除非在公開場合，否則不會提供任何關於本季業績的進一步指導或更新。

During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. A reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results is provided in today's press release, prepared remarks, and on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance and unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Carl.

電話會議期間，我們也將討論非GAAP財務指標。這些非GAAP指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。我們在今天的新聞稿、準備好的演講稿以及我們網站的投資者關係部分提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果的調節表。在討論財務表現時，我們將引用一些數字或成長變化，除非另有說明，否則每個此類引用都代表同比比較。現在我想把電話交給卡爾。

Thanks, Dave and good afternoon everyone. Let's start by wrapping up Q4. Then I want to take a few minutes to talk about long-term value creation for our shareholders, and then we'll end with guidance. As you saw in the press release, we had a terrific fourth quarter and our results demonstrate that our business model transition is working.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。讓我們先來總結一下第四季。接下來，我想花幾分鐘時間談談如何為股東創造長期價值，最後我們將給予業績展望。正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們第四季業績非常出色，我們的業績表明，我們的商業模式轉型是有效的。

The end of the fourth quarter marked a key milestone in Autodesk transition to our software as a service business as we hit the end of sale date for perpetual licenses for individual products. While the end of sale went well, what makes our Q4 results particularly good, is that they were not driven by a dramatic surge in last opportunity buying of perpetual licenses. In fact, our analysis suggests that only a small portion, around 10% of our Q4 unit volume, was related to end of sale activity.

第四季末標誌著 Autodesk 向軟體即服務業務轉型的一個重要里程碑，因為我們單一產品的永久授權銷售截止日期已到。雖然促銷活動結束得很順利，但我們第四季業績特別好的原因在於，它並非由永久許可證的最後機會購買激增所推動的。事實上，我們的分析表明，只有一小部分（約占我們第四季銷售的 10%）與清倉甩賣活動有關。

More importantly, strong subscription growth, both new model and maintenance subscriptions, and a record number of large transactions drove these results. Our total unit volume for the fourth quarter was flat compared to the fourth quarter last year, which was a major accomplishment. Recall that in Q4 last year, we had a significant uptick in demand related to the end of our upgrade program. Said another way, we were able to cover last year's Q4 uptick in unit volume with our new model subscription offering.

更重要的是，強勁的訂閱成長（包括新機型訂閱和維護訂閱）以及創紀錄的大額交易推動了這些業績。我們第四季的總銷量與去年同期持平，這是一個重大成就。回想一下，去年第四季度，由於我們的升級計畫結束，需求出現了顯著成長。換句話說，我們透過新的訂閱模式彌補了去年第四季銷售的成長。

When we look at total unit volume for the year, we were pleased to see volume of approximately 650,000 licenses. The total of subscription additions for the quarter was better than expected at 109,000. As we've seen all year, the additions were led by new model subscriptions with strong growth in all three types: desktop, Enterprise, and cloud subscriptions. Desktop subscription remains our fastest-growing new model subscription offering and grew nearly 300% year-over-year. More specifically, desktop subscription is thriving with our channel partners.

從全年總銷量來看，我們很高興看到銷量約為 65 萬張許可證。本季新增訂閱用戶總數達 109,000 人，優於預期。正如我們今年所看到的，新增用戶主要來自新型訂閱模式，這三種類型（桌面訂閱、企業訂閱和雲端訂閱）均實現了強勁成長。桌面訂閱仍然是我們成長最快的新型訂閱服務，較去年同期成長近 300%。更具體地說，桌面訂閱業務在我們的通路合作夥伴中蓬勃發展。

In just the past four quarters, the channel volume with desktop subscription has increased by more than 400%. In Q4, approximately 65% of our desktop subscription volume came through our channel partners, which is up from less than 50% in Q4 last year. What's also notable is that we achieved our highest quarter for new model subs for the year, and highest ever in terms of organic new model sub adds, in the same quarter that we hit the end of sale of perpetual licenses for individual products, a remarkable achievement.

在過去的四個季度裡，桌面訂閱頻道的收視量增加了 400% 以上。第四季度，我們桌面訂閱量約有 65% 來自通路合作夥伴，高於去年第四季的不到 50%。值得注意的是，我們在同一季度實現了全年新用戶訂閱量的最高季度，以及有機新增新用戶訂閱量的最高季度，而就同一季度，我們也停止了對單個產品的永久許可銷售，這是一個了不起的成就。

For the year, we added 50% more new model subs than maintenance subs, even as maintenance attach and renewal rates moved to record highs. The growth in new model subscriptions fueled 74% constant currency growth in new model ARR. Total recurring revenue grew to 53% of revenue, compared to 47% in the fourth quarter last year. We're also pleased to see that unit volume through our e-store post strong growth, and we believe that our online business will continue to increase meaningfully. When you add in the business we do directly with enterprise customers, our overall direct business grew to 21% of our revenue volume, compared to just 17% and 16% for the past two years.

今年，我們新增的新車型分包商數量比維護分包商數量多出 50%，而維護分包商的附加費和續約費卻創下了歷史新高。新模式訂閱量的成長推動了新模式 ARR 按固定匯率計算成長 74%。經常性收入總額佔總收入的比例成長至 53%，而去年第四季為 47%。我們也欣喜地看到，我們網上商店的銷售量實現了強勁增長，我們相信我們的線上業務將繼續穩步增長。加上我們直接與企業客戶開展的業務，我們的整體直接業務量佔收入的 21%，而過去兩年這一比例分別為 17% 和 16%。

We set a record for the number of large deals in the quarter. Overall, a 19% increase in total deal value. The majority of these large deals were flexible enterprise licenses, or EBAs, which are helping drive subscription growth. Specifically, existing enterprise customers that moved from one of our older license agreements to the newer token flex EBA have resulted in subscriber growth three times higher than before. That's pretty meaningful.

本季我們創下了大額交易數量的紀錄。總體而言，交易總額增加了 19%。這些大型交易大多是靈活的企業授權（EBA），這有助於推動訂閱成長。具體來說，現有企業客戶從我們較舊的授權協議之一遷移到較新的代幣靈活 EBA 後，用戶成長速度比以前提高了三倍。這很有意義。

Just as a reminder for those of you keeping score at home, the new token flex EBAs that we signed up this quarter, over 20,000, won't start to show up in the count until next quarter. Large enterprise deals signal that we are becoming a more strategic and essential partner to our largest customers. Our long-term vision and position as the thought leader in the industry, is an essential part of their commitment to us.

提醒一下各位在家關注統計數據的朋友們，我們本季註冊的超過 20,000 個新的代幣靈活 EBA 要到下個季度才會開始計入總數。大型企業交易表明，我們正在成為我們最大客戶更具戰略意義和不可或缺的合作夥伴。我們長遠的願景以及作為行業思想領袖的地位，是他們對我們的承諾的重要組成部分。

To summarize, Q4 provides a nice proof point that the business model transition is working for our customers, our partners, and us. I couldn't be happier with the results.

總而言之，第四季度很好地證明了商業模式轉型對我們的客戶、合作夥伴和我們本身都是有效的。我對結果非常滿意。

Now that we've covered the past quarter, let me turn to long-term value creation. Given the short-term impact that the model transition is having on our traditional financial metrics, the recent turmoil in the stock market, growing fears about a global macroeconomic slowdown, and the noise created by investors focused on the short-term. I think it's worth stepping back and taking a few minutes to outline how we are creating long-term value for our shareholders.

既然我們已經回顧了上個季度，接下來讓我談談長期價值創造。鑑於模型轉型對我們傳統財務指標的短期影響、近期股市動盪、對全球宏觀經濟放緩的日益擔憂，以及專注於短期利益的投資者所造成的噪音。我認為有必要退後一步，花幾分鐘時間概述我們是如何為股東創造長期價值的。

First, we are dramatically increasing the lifetime value of our customers with our new business model. While this creates short-term downward pressure on our traditional financial metrics, we have repeatedly called out how it creates significant financial returns over the next three to five years. Second, we are simplifying our entire go-to-market strategy to align with the concept of being an all-subscription company. This involves a significant increase in our direct to customer sales and marketing efforts, both at the enterprise level and through e-commerce. Not only will this change the cost structure, but it will greatly increase how effectively we serve our customers.

首先，我們的新商業模式將大幅提升客戶的終身價值。雖然這會對我們的傳統財務指標造成短期下行壓力，但我們已經一再強調，這將在未來三到五年內帶來顯著的財務回報。其次，我們正在簡化整個市場推廣策略，以符合成為全訂閱公司的理念。這意味著我們將大幅增加面向客戶的直接銷售和行銷力度，包括企業層面和電子商務層面。這不僅會改變成本結構，還會大大提高我們服務客戶的效率。

And third and most importantly, we are exploiting the cloud to deliver more compelling products to our current customers, and dramatically expand the size of our market opportunities. Our early investment in cloud-based design and engineering tools has given us a once in a generation opportunity to lead in both the construction and manufacturing software markets. Mainstream mobile and cloud technologies have opened up a market with more than 100 million potential subscribers.

第三，也是最重要的一點，我們正在利用雲端運算為現有客戶提供更具吸引力的產品，並大幅擴大我們的市場機會。我們早期對基於雲端的設計和工程工具的投資，為我們提供了千載難逢的機會，使我們得以在建築和製造軟體市場中處於領先地位。主流行動和雲端技術開闢了一個擁有超過 1 億潛在用戶的市場。

We have made substantial investments to achieve our leadership position, and let me be as clear as possible. The technology platform for the future, for all design and engineering software, no really all software, is the cloud. And the company that wins will have substantial and sustainable long-term advantages.

我們投入了大量資金才取得目前的領先地位，讓我盡可能清楚地說明這一點。面向未來的技術平台，適用於所有設計和工程軟體，不，實際上適用於所有軟體，就是雲端運算。而最終獲勝的公司將擁有實質的、可持續的長期優勢。

To summarize, our framework for building long-term shareholder value is to increase the lifetime value of every customer, change our cost structure, the means by which we reach customers. And finally, build the best cloud based products and services in the industry. So while generalities are important, let me specifically highlight recent activity in terms of these long-term objectives. Most importantly, our business model transition is under way and exceeding expectations. By the second half of this year, we will fully be in a subscription only mode. Customer and partner reaction to our new business model has been very positive, which gives me great confidence about our approach to the transition.

總而言之，我們建立長期股東價值的框架是提高每個客戶的終身價值，改變我們的成本結構以及我們接觸客戶的方式。最後，打造業界最好的雲端產品和服務。因此，雖然概括性內容很重要，但我想特別強調最近在這些長期目標方面所取得的進展。最重要的是，我們的商業模式轉型正在進行中，並且超越了預期。今年下半年，我們將全面轉為訂閱制模式。客戶和合作夥伴對我們新的商業模式的反應非常積極，這讓我對我們轉型的方法充滿信心。

Next, we continue to diligently control our costs. In Q4, we kept spend flat year-over-year. We recently did a sizable restructuring that balances the need for financial discipline with an ability to invest in critical initiatives that drive the long-term health of the Company. In September, we discussed annual operating expense growth of 5% to 6%. The restructuring, combined with other cost cutting measures, has allowed us to put a significant cap on spending for the next two years, and we are committed to keeping spend growth roughly flat to slightly down through FY17 and FY18.

接下來，我們將繼續認真控製成本。第四季度，我們的支出與去年同期持平。我們最近進行了一次大規模的重組，在保持財務紀律的必要性的同時，也兼顧了投資於推動公司長期健康發展的關鍵舉措的能力。9 月份，我們討論了年度營運費用成長 5% 至 6% 的情況。重組加上其他成本削減措施，使我們能夠在未來兩年內大幅限制支出，我們承諾在 2017 財年和 2018 財年將支出成長保持平穩或略有下降。

And finally, our cloud based products are the undisputed leaders in their respective categories. While many people are focused on the business model shift, we (inaudible) a leadership position in the cloud leads to a long-term sustainable competitive advantage. Building a great Company over the long term requires balancing the interest of shareholders, employees and customers; done well, these are not mutually exclusive.

最後，我們的雲端產品在各自領域都是無可爭議的領導者。雖然許多人關注的是商業模式的轉變，但我們（聽不清楚）在雲端運算領域佔據領導地位，才能獲得長期可持續的競爭優勢。從長遠來看，打造一家偉大的公司需要平衡股東、員工和客戶的利益；如果做得好，這些利益就不會互相排斥。

While it's easy to talk about, it's harder to do, and I'm very proud of the many awards we receive that recognize our success in doing just that. A few in particular are worth mentioning. We were selected for Fortune's world's 25 best multinational workplaces, Fortune's 100 best companies to work for, and were in the top five of Fortunes' most admired software companies. We also were given countless awards for innovation and product leadership.

雖然說起來容易，做起來難，我為我們獲得的眾多獎項感到非常自豪，這些獎項是對我們在這方面取得成功的認可。其中有幾個尤其值得一提。我們入選了《財星》雜誌評選的全球 25 家最佳跨國公司工作場所、100 家最佳雇主公司，並在《財星》雜誌評選的最受尊敬的軟體公司中位列前五。我們也因創新和產品領導力而獲得了無數獎項。

Bringing it all together, we are updating our long-term cash flow model. As we look to FY20, assuming that the number of outstanding shares remains constant, we will be able to produce about $6 of free cash flow per share. In the following years, free cash flow continues to dramatically increase, and we see a path of free cash flow that exceeds $2.5 billion, or more than $11 per share of free cash flow by FY23.

綜合所有因素，我們正在更新我們的長期現金流量模型。展望 2020 財年，假設流通股數量保持不變，我們將能夠產生每股約 6 美元的自由現金流。在接下來的幾年裡，自由現金流將繼續大幅成長，我們預計到 2023 財年，自由現金流將超過 25 億美元，即每股自由現金流超過 11 美元。

As you are aware, our cash flow generation this year and next will be impacted by the transition from perpetual to term-based licenses. The silver lining is that we now have an opportunity to switch to a new operating structure to support our business needs. This change will result in an increase in our US based cash, while lowering our long-term tax rate. This will greatly help with the long-term structural imbalance of ongoing revenues and cash flows as we move through the business model transition. We will give you more details during this year as our plans materialize.

如您所知，由於永久許可向定期許可的過渡，我們今年和明年的現金流將受到影響。好的一面是，我們現在有機會轉向新的營運結構，以滿足我們的業務需求。這項變更將增加我們在美國的現金儲備，同時降低我們的長期稅率。這將大大幫助我們解決業務模式轉型過程中持續收入和現金流的長期結構性失衡問題。今年晚些時候，隨著計劃的逐步落實，我們將向您提供更多細節。

As we turn to fiscal 2017, we couldn't be more excited about entering this next phase of our business. This year will be the most unique in the Company's history, as we complete the transition from perpetual licenses to cloud-based subscriptions at the end of Q2. It will be an interesting and unique quarterly pattern. None of the traditional seasonality patterns for sales metrics will be applicable; nor will year-over-year growth rates of traditional financial metrics be helpful in understanding how we are performing through the transition.

展望 2017 財年，我們無比激動地即將進入業務的下一個階段。今年將是公司歷史上最獨特的一年，因為我們將在第二季末完成從永久許可到基於雲端的訂閱的過渡。這將是一種有趣且獨特的季度模式。傳統的銷售指標季節性模式將不再適用；傳統的財務指標年增率也無法幫助我們了解轉型期間的績效表現。

Q1 will be our first quarter with only subscription offerings for individual products. We have a number of sales promotions in place to accelerate our customers' move to desktop subscriptions. As you think about Q1, the best result for us would be to be higher on subscriptions and lower on revenue. This may seem counterintuitive, but in fact would result from an accelerated transition to desktop subs.

第一季將是我們首次只提供單一產品的訂閱服務。我們推出了一系列促銷活動，旨在加速客戶向桌面訂閱模式的過渡。展望第一季度，對我們來說最好的結果是訂閱增加，而營收減少。這看起來似乎有悖常理，但實際上卻是加速向桌面訂閱過渡的結果。

The end of Q2 will be the next major milestone of our business model transition, as we stop selling perpetual licenses for suites. We expect the dynamics will most closely resemble what we saw in Q4, with the end of sale for individual products. Q3 will be our first quarter of subscription-only sales across the board, and we'll likely experience sequential slowdowns. And Q4 should begin to show more normal sales trends in our new subscription only model.

第二季末將是我們業務模式轉型的下一個重要里程碑，屆時我們將停止銷售套件的永久授權。我們預計市場動態將與第四季的情況最為接近，屆時個別產品的銷售將結束。第三季將是我們全面實施訂閱制銷售的第一個季度，我們可能會經歷環比放緩。第四季度，我們新的純訂閱模式下的銷售趨勢應該會開始呈現更正常的態勢。

In our view, the better metrics for tracking our progress over the next few quarters will be subscription additions and ARR growth. The entire Company has been realigned and is hyper-focused on subscription additions and growth in recurring revenue. We have put in place both the processes and incentives such as new sales comp and bonus plans, to align with our goal of growing our subscription base by a 20% CAGR over the next four years, which will drive a 24% CAGR in ARR.

我們認為，在接下來的幾個季度裡，衡量我們進展的更好指標是訂閱用戶成長和年度經常性收入成長。公司整體進行了重組，並將重點放在增加訂閱用戶和提高經常性收入。我們已經制定了新的銷售補償和獎金計劃等流程和激勵措施，以實現未來四年訂閱用戶數量年複合增長率達到 20% 的目標，這將推動年度經常性收入年複合增長率達到 24%。

Many of you have asked about the impact of the macroeconomic environment on our business. We have said for the past several quarters that the global conditions have been uneven. Most of the emerging markets have been a mess, but most of the mature markets have been decent. As we evaluated our strong Q4 results, we didn't see any further degradation in the demand environment.

很多朋友都詢問了宏觀經濟環境對我們業務的影響。過去幾季我們一直強調，全球局勢並不均勻。大多數新興市場一片混亂，但大多數成熟市場表現仍可。在評估我們強勁的第四季業績時，我們沒有看到需求環境進一步惡化。

However, there is no denying there is clear divergence in sentiment with regards to global macroeconomic conditions. Coupled with the uniqueness of this year, our forecasting process has never been more challenging. As such, we believe it's prudent to take an appropriately conservative approach to our outlook for the year, while remaining confident in our ability to achieve our long-term target. For the year, we're projecting to add approximately 500,000 subscriptions, with new model subscriptions contributing the vast majority of the growth. As expected, this will be the year when the transition causes the biggest revenue impact, as we move more fully into the subscription model.

然而，不可否認的是，人們對全球宏觀經濟狀況的看法有明顯分歧。再加上今年的特殊性，我們的預測過程從未像現在這樣具有挑戰性。因此，我們認為對今年的展望採取適當保守的態度是審慎的，同時我們對實現長期目標的能力充滿信心。今年我們預計新增訂閱用戶約 50 萬，其中新模式的訂閱用戶將貢獻絕大部分成長。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們更全面地轉向訂閱模式，今年將是轉型對收入影響最大的一年。

On the earnings call last quarter, I talked about 1% to 2% spend growth for FY17. Given that our typical annual spend increase starts at about 4% just for merit and healthcare costs et cetera, some cost actions were already factored into that guidance. I've spoken repeatedly about reducing our spend growth, while staying the course with the investments required to make both the business model and platform transition. Examples would be investments in building out a low cost, high touch inside sales team, or in building out our cloud platform products.

在上個季度的財報電話會議上，我談到了 2017 財年支出成長 1% 到 2%。鑑於我們通常每年的支出成長僅為績效和醫療保健成本等就約為 4%，一些成本控制措施已經納入了該指導方針中。我曾多次談到要減少支出成長，同時堅持進行必要的投資，以實現業務模式和平台轉型。例如，投資建置低成本、高觸達的內部銷售團隊，或投資建置我們的雲端平台產品。

We are conscious of the impact that cutting spending too much, or not reducing it enough could have [on the rates] and ultimate success of the transition. We believe our current course of managing spend growth flat to modestly down for FY17 strikes the right balance, and as I previously mentioned, we will maintain flat growth through FY18 as well.

我們意識到削減開支過多或過少都可能對利率和轉型最終成功產生影響。我們認為，目前將 2017 財年的支出成長控制在持平或略有下降的方針，達到了適當的平衡。正如我之前提到的，我們也將在 2018 財年保持持平成長。

We aren't updating the entire framework we laid out at the Investor Day last September, but there are a couple of data points that should help you with longer term modeling. As I said earlier, with the updates to the model overall, we see FCF per share of roughly $6 in FY20, given our current view of top line growth, and our spend trajectory. Our revenue projection for FY17 is slightly lower than the framework we provided in September for a few reasons. Continued FX headwinds are pushing revenue down.

我們不會更新去年九月投資者日上提出的整個框架，但有一些數據點應該可以幫助您進行長期建模。正如我之前所說，隨著模型整體的更新，鑑於我們目前對營收成長的看法以及我們的支出軌跡，我們預計 2020 財年的每股自由現金流約為 6 美元。由於以下幾個原因，我們對 2017 財年的營收預測略低於我們在 9 月提供的預測架構。持續的外匯不利因素導致收入下降。

We are assuming a higher mix of new model subs, based on our recent performance. And as I mentioned earlier, we're taking a more conservative stance given all the moving parts this year. Similar to our view on Q1, hitting the low end of our revenue range, while exceeding our subscription guidance is a desirable outcome for the year. If we experience greater than expected demand for the last perpetual licenses for suites, it will likely drive revenue to the high end of guidance or beyond.

根據我們近期的業績，我們預期新型號潛水艇的比例會更高。正如我之前提到的，鑑於今年各種變數眾多，我們採取了較保守的立場。與我們對第一季的看法類似，營收達到預期範圍的下限，同時訂閱量超過預期，是今年的理想結果。如果最後幾份永久許可證套件的需求超出預期，則可能會推動收入達到或超過預期上限。

To wrap things up, we're really excited to be one step further along in the transition. Our long-term strategy will provide our customers with greater flexibility, more compelling products and a better user experience.

總而言之，我們非常高興轉型進程又向前邁進了一步。我們的長期策略將為客戶提供更大的靈活性、更具吸引力的產品和更好的使用者體驗。

In doing so, we're driving higher lifetime customer value, simplifying our go-to-market, and significantly increasing the size of the available market. Simultaneously, we are reducing our cost structure to accelerate our transition, and increase our profitability, as well as evolving our operating and tax structure to better meet our future business needs.

透過這樣做，我們提高了客戶終身價值，簡化了市場推廣流程，並顯著擴大了可用市場規模。同時，我們正在降低成本結構，以加快轉型，提高獲利能力，並不斷改進營運和稅務結構，以更好地滿足未來的業務需求。

In short, we are creating a more predictable, recurring, and profitable business for Autodesk in the years to come. Finally, I'd like to thank all of our employees and our partners who worked so hard to make last year a success. Operator, we'd now like to open the call up for questions.

簡而言之，我們正在為 Autodesk 創造一個在未來幾年內更具可預測性、更永續、更盈利的業務。最後，我要感謝我們所有的員工和合作夥伴，感謝他們為去年的成功付出的辛勤努力。接線員，現在我們開始接受提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Philip Winslow from Credit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的菲利普‧溫斯洛。

Thanks, guys, and congrats on a great quarter. And Carl, really appreciate that update on the outlook. It certainly was impressive on the cash-flow metrics. Clearly above your old guidance, above even where we were.

謝謝各位，恭喜你們度過了一個非常棒的季度。卡爾，非常感謝你提供的最新消息。從現金流指標來看，它的確令人印象深刻。顯然比你之前的指導水準高得多，甚至比我們當時的水準還要高。

When you look at those cash flow long-term targets you gave up there, I know you're not updating the whole framework. But it certainly implies, it feels like margins solidly ahead of what you talked about at the Analyst Day. And obviously you talked about fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2018 on the cost side.

當你檢視你放棄的那些現金流長期目標時，我知道你並沒有更新整個框架。但這無疑表明，利潤率明顯高於您在分析師日上所談論的水平。顯然，您也談到了 2017 財年和 2018 財年的成本情況。

Wonder if you could give us just how you're thinking about the framework of margins in that long-term guidance? And then from a top-line perspective, how you're building up there, obviously not giving the full detail that you guys talked about, and then just one quick follow-up to that.

能否請您詳細說明一下，您在製定長期業績指引時是如何考慮利潤率框架的？然後從總體上看，你們是如何逐步構建的，顯然不會像你們之前討論的那樣給出全部細節，然後我再快速補充一點。

Let me just quickly touch on it, and Scott can jump in. Most of the update to the guidance was not a change in the overall demand. So let's just put that out there. Assuming the same level of demand. We were pleased in Q4 to see greater demand. But no difference in demand from when we talked about the model. A lot of the upside is driven by greater cost control. So a lot has to do with some of the stuff we outlined for FY17 and FY18.

我簡單提一下，史考特可以接著說。此次指導意見的更新大部分並非源自於整體需求的變化。那就把這話說出來吧。假設需求水準不變。第四季需求成長令我們感到欣喜。但需求與我們討論該模型時並無不同。大部分收益成長都源自於更有效的成本控制。所以，這很大程度上與我們為 2017 財年和 2018 財年制定的一些計畫有關。

It's just as you roll that through the subsequent years, starting from a lower cost base has a tremendous advantage. In a lot of ways, that's what we're responding to. Many of our investors have said I understand the transition. I love to where you're getting on the other side but can't you control cost a little bit better through this transition? I think in response to that, that's where we got to. And that's where you see a lot of it.

當你把這個優勢延續到接下來的幾年時，你會發現，從較低的成本基礎開始發展具有巨大的優勢。在很多方面，這正是我們所回應的。許多投資者都表示理解這個過渡過程。我很贊同你們正在努力的方向，但是在這個過渡過程中，你們能否更好地控製成本呢？我認為正因如此，我們才走到今天這一步。很多這類事情都發生在那裡。

The other slight shift I'd say, is we're more optimistic about the move to the new model. We've seen more positive signs of acceptance by both customers and partners. Remember, a little bit of our reluctance to move more quickly, was making sure we had acceptance of both groups and the ability for them to successfully navigate the transition as well as us.

另一個細微的變化是，我們對向新模式的轉變更加樂觀了。我們看到客戶和合作夥伴都表現出了更多積極的接受跡象。請記住，我們之所以不願加快步伐，部分原因是希望確保兩個群體都能被接納，並且能夠像我們一樣成功地完成過渡。

Phil, this is Scott. The only other thing I would add is, the framework we laid out is not intended to be something we update every quarter. But as you roll through the changes that we have talked about in spend growth out through time, and then of course it doesn't step function back up after fiscal 2018. It takes a while for the spend engine to accelerate again.

菲爾，這是斯科特。我唯一要補充的是，我們制定的框架並不打算每季都更新。但是，隨著我們討論的支出成長隨時間推移而發生變化，當然，在 2018 財年之後，它並沒有恢復到之前的水平。消費引擎需要一段時間才能再次加速運轉。

We do see margins expanding. I think what we showed on the 29th was in that mid-to-high 20% range in fiscal 2020, and it's probably a good 4 to 5 points higher than that given what we've just talked about in spend.

我們確實看到利潤率在擴大。我認為我們在 29 號展示的數據在 2020 財年達到了 20% 的中高水平，考慮到我們剛才討論的支出情況，實際數字可能比這個數字高出 4 到 5 個百分點。

Great. Well, I was at $8 to $9 in free cash flow, so I'm a big fan of your $11. One last just follow-up on the quarter itself. You guys talked about the quarter's strength was not driven by the end of sale of licenses for some of the products.

偉大的。嗯，我的自由現金流只有 8 到 9 美元，所以我非常贊同你的 11 美元。最後再補充一點關於本季本身的情況。你們之前說過，本季業績強勁並非由於某些產品許可證銷售終止所致。

Carl and Scott, I wonder if you would talk through just the verticals and [Geos]? What areas were standing out as particular areas of strength? And how are you thinking about that in terms of your guidance?

Carl 和 Scott，我想請你們談談垂直結構和[Geos]？哪些領域表現特別突出？那麼，您在指導方面是如何考慮這個問題的呢？

Let's start with the Geos. It's really black and white. Every emerging economy, developing country, whatever you want to call it practically stinks. The exception for us, was China. Despite the news that you may have read, China continues to perform well. But there are places where our business in emerging markets has just totally tanked.

我們先從 Geos 開始。事情非黑即白。所有新興經濟體、發展中國家，不管你怎麼稱呼它，其實都很臭。對我們來說，中國是個例外。儘管你可能讀到一些新聞，但中國依然保持著良好的發展勢頭。但在某些新興市場，我們的業務已經完全崩潰了。

So when you look at a number of these places, the Middle East, Russia, which are largely driven by oil. Brazil is bad. So you look there, when you compare geographically, our EMEA results look not as strong as the others. Two factors there. One is EMEA had a fabulous fourth quarter last year. And the second part is really the MEA part. The E part of EMEA did great. But the MEA part just struggled. It really is due to oil and commodities and other stuff.

所以當你觀察這些地方，像是中東、俄羅斯，這些地方很大程度都是由石油驅動的。巴西很糟糕。所以你看，從地理比較，我們 EMEA 的業績看起來不如其他地區強勁。這裡有兩個因素。一是 EMEA 去年第四季表現出色。第二部分其實是中東和非洲部分。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的E部分錶現出色。但中東和非洲部分卻舉步維艱。這確實是石油、大宗商品和其他因素造成的。

The geographic part is pretty simple. Don't see a big change. I think relative to what we hear others talking about or read in the newspapers, if anyone still reads newspapers, is China is better than you would expect from taking your readings. The only weak part of the developed world, but no delta there, is Japan. Japan has been weak for a while. Currency is an issue. But, generally we saw flat demand.

地理部分很簡單。沒看到什麼大改變。我認為，相對於我們聽到的其他人談論的或在報紙上讀到的（如果還有人讀報紙的話），中國的情況比你從報紙上讀到的要好。已開發國家中唯一較弱的地區，但又沒有三角洲地區，就是日本。日本經濟疲軟已有一段時間了。貨幣是個問題。但總體而言，我們看到需求持平。

Across the markets, both construction and manufacturing, and on media and entertainment we're all good. There wasn't a lot of difference across, that I would point to, or call out any trends that we're seeing that we're projecting into the future.

無論是建築業、製造業，或是媒體娛樂業，各個市場都發展良好。並沒有發現太大的差別，我也不認為有什麼明顯的趨勢會延續到未來。

I agree with that. By the way, the commentary that we just gave on emerging markets is really no different than what we've seen all year. We've seen China actually be a bit of a bright spot for us in the emerging markets. And everything else, and in particular, Russia and Brazil have really struggled year on year.

我同意。順便說一句，我們剛才對新興市場的評論，其實和我們今年以來看到的情況並沒有什麼不同。我們看到，中國其實是新興市場中的一抹亮色。其他所有國家，尤其是俄羅斯和巴西，每年都舉步維艱。

The only other thing that stands out, when you look through, there was strength across the board in Q4 and, in particular, the number of large transactions that we did. The deals greater than $1 million, heavily driven by our EBAs, our big enterprise business agreements we had a very strong quarter there and in fact did more than a handful of 8-figure deals there.

縱觀整個季度，唯一值得一提的是，各方面都表現強勁，尤其是我們完成的大額交易數量。超過 100 萬美元的交易主要由我們的企業業務協議 (EBA) 推動，我們的大型企業業務協議在本季度表現非常強勁，事實上，我們達成了不止幾筆八位數的交易。

Now these are all ratable so you don't see them all dropping into the revenue stream in Q4. But a handful of 8-figure deals, and the largest manufacturing deal we've ever done, we just got done in Q4. So I'd say strength on the high end as well.

這些都是可計入收入的項目，所以你不會看到它們全部在第四季度計入收入。但我們在第四季完成了幾筆八位數的交易，以及我們有史以來最大的製造交易。所以我認為它的力量也很強。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Saket Kalia from Barclays.

謝謝。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Saket Kalia。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions here. Carl, you talked last quarter about selling anywhere from 500,000 to 800,000 in a given year. And I think you said that it was about 650,000 this year. Correct me if I'm wrong. You've given us the subscription component of that with the subs guidance for fiscal 2017. But, just normalizing for all the noise in 2017, how do you think about unit volume for fiscal 2017?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。卡爾，你上個季度說過，一年的銷售目標在 50 萬到 80 萬輛之間。我想你說過今年大約是 65 萬。如果我錯了，請指正。您已經向我們提供了 2017 財年訂閱收入的指導意見，其中包含了訂閱收入部分的資訊。但是，如果排除 2017 年的各種幹擾因素，您認為 2017 財年的單位銷售量如何？

I think unit volume will be up, not a huge amount, but up. One of the tricks we're kind of referencing in the forecasting, is that in particular, I think we have a couple of quarters where it's hard to know which way people will go. Q1 and Q2 in particular, but even extending into Q3.

我認為銷量會上升，雖然不會大幅上升，但肯定會上升。我們在預測中提到的一個技巧是，特別是，我認為有幾個季度很難知道人們會朝哪個方向發展。尤其是第一季和第二季度，甚至延伸到第三季。

So we're doing our best job on triangulating from what we're hearing from our partners, what we're hearing from our salespeople, top-down models, extrapolation of trends. To be honest, it's a little bit hard. That's why we have a slightly broader range, in terms of guidance and why we gave the slightly paradoxical guidance that I wouldn't mind seeing revenue down.

因此，我們正在盡最大努力，透過綜合考慮從合作夥伴那裡聽到的信息、從銷售人員那裡聽到的信息、自上而下的模型以及對趨勢的推斷來進行三角驗證。說實話，這有點難。這就是為什麼我們在業績指引方面給出了稍微寬泛的預期，也是為什麼我們給出了略顯矛盾的指引，即我並不介意收入下降。

I think I've now done something like 40 of these earnings calls at the end of the quarter, and I don't think I've ever rooted for revenue to be down. This is certainly a first. So it's just different than it's ever been.

我想我已經參加了大約 40 次季度末的財報電話會議，但我從來沒有希望過營收下降。這絕對是史無前例的。所以，現在的情況和以往完全不同了。

I can't highlight enough that the next four quarters are just going to be a little bit odd. And that's why we pointed to, and I think you're on the right point, which is look at volume. We think volume will be up. Look at ARR. There will be a number of metrics that will underlie -- it's really the foundation for the business doing well, and for underlying demand. And then, a little bit we're taking (inaudible).

我必須強調，接下來的四個季度將會有點不尋常。所以，我們才指出，而且我認為你的觀點是對的，那就是要看成交量。我們認為成交量將會上升。看看年度經常性收入（ARR）。將會有許多指標作為支撐——這才是企業良好營運和潛在需求的真正基礎。然後，我們稍微拿走一點（聽不清楚）。

And just as the math is ugly in the next 1 1/2 years, the math gets beautiful in the subsequent years. We'll take that as we can. One other addition, let me just add, what our bias is. And I think strongly supported by many of our investors, is to do anything we can to transition our customers to the new model as fast as possible.

就像接下來 1 年半的數學計算結果很糟糕一樣，在隨後的幾年裡，數學計算結果會變得非常美好。我們會盡力而為。我還要補充一點，那就是我們的偏見是什麼。我認為，在眾多投資者的強烈支持下，我們將盡一切努力盡快讓我們的客戶過渡到新模式。

So, there are a number of things like this that we're doing which, again, we think could adversely affect some of our guidance on revenue. But we think will also help on exceeding on subscriptions. So, many of you have noticed things like promotions in Q1. I think you'll see promotions in Q1 around our new model businesses. I think you'll see the same thing in Q3.

所以，我們正在做很多類似的事情，我們認為這些事情可能會對我們的一些收入預期產生不利影響。但我們認為這也有助於提高訂閱量。所以，你們中的許多人可能已經注意到第一季的一些促銷活動。我認為您會在第一季看到我們圍繞新業務模式的促銷活動。我認為第三季也會出現同樣的情況。

It would not be out of the question for us to do stuff like that. So a number of things. But our bias is, we had already moved up the end of sale date by six months. And now we're using all the knobs and levers we have to continue to put pressure on the system to move to the new model as quickly as possible.

我們做這樣的事並非不可能。所以有很多事情。但根據我們的立場，我們已經將促銷結束日期提前了六個月。現在，我們正在利用所有可用的手段，繼續向系統施加壓力，使其盡快過渡到新模式。

That makes sense. And then for my follow up, I'm not sure for Carl or Scott. But one of the difficult things that I find modeling externally is that ARPS number particularly around new model ARR. And so, I'm not sure if this is something that you've looked at. But on a steady state basis, in Q3, Q4 and beyond, based on the historical mix that you've seen of historical volume and subscription pricing, what's a fair range to think about new model ARPS in sort of a steady state, if that makes sense?

這很有道理。至於我的後續問題，我不確定是卡爾還是史考特。但我發現，外部建模的困難點之一在於 ARPS 數值，尤其是在新模型 ARR 方面。所以，我不確定你是否考慮過這個問題。但是，從穩定狀態來看，在第三季、第四季及以後，根據您所看到的歷史銷售和訂閱價格組合，在某種穩定狀態下，新模式的平均每用戶收入 (ARPS) 的合理範圍是多少？

I understand the model drives you to want to focus on that metric, Saket. I think the key is what Carl said earlier. We have geared the entire machine, from sales comp through the variable comp bonus plans that every employee has, you look at our promos, you look at the way we will point our channel partners, next week, at our sales kickoff event. We've geared everything towards driving subs.

Saket，我明白這個模型會讓你想專注在這個指標。我認為關鍵在於卡爾之前說的那句話。我們已經調整了整個機制，從銷售佣金到每位員工享有的浮動佣金獎金計劃，看看我們的促銷活動，看看我們下週將如何引導我們的通路合作夥伴參加我們的銷售啟動活動。我們已將一切重心轉向推動潛艦部隊。

Because the more we drive subs, and in particular the more we drive the new model subs, ultimately that's what builds the strength of the model and gets us to that vision of fiscal 2020 that we've laid out. So ARPS to us is more of a drive number. We're focused on driving subs and driving ARR. When you divide those two you get ARPS.

因為我們推動的潛水艇越多，尤其是推動新型號潛艦越多，最終就能增強這種模式的實力，並使我們實現我們所製定的 2020 財年願景。所以對我們來說，ARPS更像是個驅動數字。我們專注於提升訂閱用戶數量和年度經常性收入。將這兩個數相除，即可得到 ARPS。

I think if you wanted to think about it a little bit more mechanically, I would give you two pointers. One is, the fastest growing piece of our desktop business, which is what's driving the new model subs as much as anything, is the low end. It's the AutoCAD LT desktop subs. So that's naturally going to put downward pressure on ARPS.

如果你想從更機械的角度思考一下，我給你兩點建議。其一是，我們桌上型電腦業務中成長最快的部分，也是推動新機型訂閱量成長的主要因素，是低端市場。這是 AutoCAD LT 桌面版子程式。因此，這自然會對平均股價（ARPS）造成下行壓力。

The second is, the way we calculate ARR on a quarterly basis is we total up our recurring revenue for the quarter, multiply that by 4 to get it annualized, and that's our ARR. And so the linearity in a given quarter will drive the ARR calculation.

第二種方法是，我們按季度計算 ARR 的方式是，我們將該季度的經常性收入加總，乘以 4 得到年化收入，這就是我們的 ARR。因此，特定季度的線性成長將決定 ARR 的計算。

In other words, the more of those sales that come in late in the quarter, there's fewer revenue that actually accretes into the reported revenue for that quarter. So you don't get to see the full effect of it until the following quarter. There's a little bit of seasonality and linearity effect on ARR in any given quarter that I think can also throw off your ARPS calculations.

換句話說，季度末的銷售額越多，實際計入該季度報告收入的收入就越少。所以，要到下一個季度才能看到它的全部效果。任何特定季度的 ARR 都會受到一些季節性和線性效應的影響，我認為這也會影響您的 ARPS 計算。

Just in general, the one thing I would say about ARPS, is I could see it going slightly higher this year as more of the suites and our full-fledged offerings hit. But as Scott pointed out, our lower-cost products like LT will put pressure on it downward, as well as many of the cloud subscriptions.

總的來說，關於ARPS，我想說的是，隨著更多套房和我們全面完善的產品推出，我認為今年的ARPS可能會略有上漲。但正如 Scott 指出的那樣，我們像 LT 這樣的低成本產品以及許多雲端訂閱服務將對其構成下行壓力。

So, as we've talked about, many of the cloud subscriptions are for larger groups working together, as opposed to the individual design and engineering products. So things like BIM 360 and PLM 360 can have hundreds of thousands of users. And so the average cost per subscriber will be substantially lower than a design product. So it's all caught up in that first (inaudible) average.

正如我們之前討論過的，許多雲端訂閱服務是面向共同協作的大型團隊，而不是針對單一設計和工程產品。因此，像 BIM 360 和 PLM 360 這樣的產品可以擁有數十萬用戶。因此，每個用戶的平均成本將遠低於設計產品。所以這一切都包含在第一個（聽不清楚）平均值裡了。

Got it, very helpful. Thanks, guys.

明白了，很有幫助。謝謝各位。

Just driven by mix.

完全由混音驅動。

Our next question comes from the line of Sterling Auty from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。

Thanks. Scott, the comment that you made in the desktop it's the lower end that's really kind of driving the subscriptions at the moment. Do you think that's just a matter of who is interested in adopting first and we'll see that mix change over time? Or is there something about the subscription format that's going to drive users more towards a lower-end product versus some of the higher-end products?

謝謝。Scott，正如你在桌面版上所說，目前真正推動訂閱量成長的是低階市場。你認為這只是誰先有興趣採用的問題嗎？隨著時間的推移，我們會看到這種比例改變嗎？或者說，訂閱模式本身是否存在某些特性，會導致用戶更傾向於選擇低階產品而不是高階產品？

It's just that we introduced it first.

只不過我們先推出了這項技術而已。

From a volume standpoint, Sterling, that's absolutely right. There's nothing inherently advantageous of buying a subscription on LT versus buying a subscription on AutoCAD or PRDS or any of our other products. It is our highest-volume product. Given that it's our highest-volume product in perpetual sales, it will be our highest volume product on recurring sales as well.

從銷售角度來看，斯特林，你說得完全正確。訂閱 LT 版本與訂閱 AutoCAD、PRDS 或我們的任何其他產品相比，並沒有什麼本質上的優勢。這是我們銷售量最高的產品。鑑於它是我們永久銷售中銷量最高的產品，它也將是我們在循環銷售中銷量最高的產品。

We really focused on it first because one of our concerns going into this transition was that the customers who were more paying for the flagship products would be very comfortable with the new models. But that some of the LT users were more casual and might not want to enter into longer-term commitments. We focused very heavily, given that it was our highest-volume product, on making it go there.

我們首先重點關注這一點，因為我們在進行轉型時擔心的是，那些為旗艦產品支付更多費用的客戶是否會對新型號感到滿意。但有些 LT 用戶比較隨意，可能不想簽訂長期合約。鑑於該產品是我們銷量最高的產品，我們投入了大量精力，確保它能銷往那裡。

I think what we're seeing a little bit is we're measuring the effect of our influence on this. A better time to take the measurement will be as we hit Q3 and we get to -- when we get to the end of sale of the perpetual licenses for suites as well as introduce our new offerings that are really the desktop replacements for suites.

我認為我們現在看到的，其實是我們正在衡量我們對此的影響。更好的衡量時機是到了第三季度，屆時我們將停止銷售套件的永久許可證，並推出真正可以替代套件的桌面版新產品。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, you mentioned a couple times the good results in terms of the large deals. Was there anything in particular that you saw stood out to drive some of those deals in terms of the timing? Whether it's just the year-end budget flush or particular types of problems that those customers are trying to solve with doing these larger deals?

知道了。然後，您又幾次提到，在大宗交易方面取得了良好的結果。就時機而言，你認為有哪些特別突出的因素促成了這些交易？究竟是年末預算緊張，還是客戶試圖透過這些大額交易解決特定類型的問題？

I think there are a couple things that have happened, some short-term, some long-term. One is, there has always been more of a seasonality to our large enterprise deals. Some of it is driven by their end of year.

我認為發生了兩件事，有些是短期的，有些是長期的。其一是，我們的大型企業交易一直以來都具有更強的季節性。部分原因是受年底業績影響。

And remember, even though one of the quirks of this Company is our calendar and fiscal numbering, it does give us a second close. So we not only have a customer end of the year, but our salespeople have an end of year, too. And so, there's always been a stronger influence on Q4 because of that.

請記住，儘管本公司的一個怪癖是我們的日曆和財務編號，但這確實給了我們第二次結算的機會。所以，不僅客戶要面對年末業績，我們的銷售人員也要面對年末業績。因此，第四季總是受到更強烈的影響。

The second thing is, if you go back a handful of years, we had almost no enterprise licenses. That was a nonexistent part of our business. I think we've done a number of things over the mid-term to change that. One is we built out a sales force that did it.

第二點是，如果你回顧幾年前，我們幾乎沒有企業許可證。那在我們公司業務中根本不存在。我認為我們在中期已經採取了一些措施來改變這種情況。其一是我們組建了一支能夠做到這一點的銷售團隊。

We changed the nature of some of our products to better accommodate it. We have licensing models that more align with what they want to do. And I think our drive really to take a leadership position in the industry, whether that's what we're doing in media and entertainment, or with BIM and AEC, or [what we're] doing on the cloud in manufacturing, has led companies to view Autodesk as a more strategic partner.

我們改變了部分產品的性質，以便更好地適應這種情況。我們的授權模式更符合他們的需求。我認為，我們致力於在業界佔據領導地位，無論是在媒體和娛樂領域，還是在 BIM 和 AEC 領域，亦或是我們在製造業的雲端技術方面所做的工作，都促使各公司將 Autodesk 視為更具戰略意義的合作夥伴。

I don't know how many years I'd have to go back before I would find that a $1 million deal in a quarter was a big deal. And now it's fairly routine. So we've invested heavily. As we've detailed at Analyst Day this year and last year, we think there's a lot more there. We think the offering's coming, enabled us to grow much more quickly. And what we love about it is it does have some trickle-down effect, in that all of these companies greatly affect their supply chain.

我不知道要追溯到多少年前，我才會發現一個季度內達成100萬美元的交易是一件大事。現在這已經相當常規了。所以我們投入了大量資金。正如我們在今年和去年的分析師日上詳細闡述的那樣，我們認為這方面還有很多值得挖掘的地方。我們認為即將推出的產品使我們能夠更快地發展。我們喜歡它的一點是，它確實具有一定的涓滴效應，因為所有這些公司都會極大地影響它們的供應鏈。

So we're really excited about the enterprise business and we're going to continue to keep investing in it. As a matter of fact, the biggest investment came during the 2008, 2009 downturn, when we recognized, like our statistical run rate business was falling off. And one of the places we could really invest was in the enterprise. And it was really out of that soul searching in the darkness that we really landed on this. It's just been a continual success.

因此，我們對企業業務感到非常興奮，並將繼續增加對該領域的投資。事實上，最大的投資是在 2008 年、2009 年經濟衰退期間進行的，當時我們意識到，就像統計上的運作率一樣，我們的業務正在下滑。而我們真正可以投資的領域之一就是企業。正是在黑暗中進行的深刻反思中，我們最終得出了這個結論。它一直都取得了成功。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Heather Bellini from Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。下一個問題來自高盛的希瑟·貝里尼。

Great. Thanks, Carl, for taking the question. I just wanted to ask you a little bit about your maintenance ARR, which declined in the quarter. And after you cancel suite licenses at the end of the second quarter, should we expect the declines in the maintenance ARR to accelerate?

偉大的。謝謝卡爾回答這個問題。我只是想問一下關於你們的維護性年度經常性收入（ARR）的情況，該收入在本季度有所下降。在第二季末取消套件許可後，我們是否應該預期維護 ARR 的下降速度會加快？

And I'm just thinking about it. It's a high margin maintenance stream, so what's baked into your assumptions on how this should decline for fiscal 2017 given your earnings guidance? And then I just have a follow-up.

我正在考慮這件事。這是一個高利潤率的維持性收入來源，那麼鑑於您的獲利預期，您對該收入在 2017 財年應該如何下降的假設中包含了哪些因素？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Let me just say one word, and then Scott can -- yes, you absolutely should count on maintenance ARR going down after the end of Q2.

我只想說一句話，然後斯科特就可以說了——是的，你絕對應該預料到維護 ARR 在第二季末會下降。

Heather, I don't know that accelerate is the right word. But this is, again, one of the trends we talked about back at Investor Day that as we sell our last perpetual license that will be the apex on maintenance subscriptions which will come down at a rate consistent with our churn rate, and of course maintenance ARR will trail down as well.

希瑟，我不知道「加速」這個詞是否合適。但這再次印證了我們在投資者日上討論過的趨勢之一：隨著我們售出最後一個永久許可證，維護訂閱將達到頂峰，其下降速度將與我們的客戶流失率保持一致，當然，維護 ARR 也會隨之下降。

There's a lot of maintenance sitting in deferred revenue. It's not going to come off quickly out of our reported revenues. It will trickle down. It will become, in the second half of the year, both maintenance ARR and maintenance subscriptions growth will be a headwind to our total ARR and total subscriptions growth.

有很多維護費用積壓在遞延收入。這筆費用不會很快從我們公佈的收入中扣除。影響會逐漸向下蔓延。到下半年，維護性 ARR 和維護性訂閱的成長都將對我們的總 ARR 和總訂閱成長構成不利影響。

And then the follow-up question, and I guess there's actually two quick ones. Your new model ARR increased by about $35 million in the quarter. How do we think about that ramping throughout fiscal 2017? Is there a target we should be thinking of? Or do you guys have a goal in mind that you could share so we could benchmark how you do versus expectations?

然後還有一個後續問題，我想實際上有兩個簡短的問題。您的新模式在本季帶來了約 3500 萬美元的年度經常性收入成長。我們如何看待2017財年期間的這種成長？我們應該考慮設定目標嗎？或者你們有沒有什麼目標可以分享一下，以便我們衡量你們的完成情況與預期目標之間的差距？

The other question we're getting asked a lot about, and you gave us some of the pieces, but how are you thinking about your cash flow for fiscal 2017?

另一個我們常被問到的問題，您也給了一些答案，您是如何看待 2017 財年的現金流的？

First, Heather, we're not providing ARR guidance for the year, certainly in that level of granularity. I think, again, we set up the machine. And when I say that, I mean every part of the Company to focus on driving subs. And so the easy place to track right now through this year will be to track how we grow both total subscriptions, but then, more importantly, the new model subscriptions. That's what's going to grow the Company longer term.

首先，Heather，我們不會提供今年的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 指引，當然不會提供如此細緻的指引。我想，我們又一次把機器設定好了。我的意思是，公司的每個部門都要專注於推動訂閱業務成長。因此，今年最容易追蹤的是訂閱總量的成長情況，但更重要的是，新模式訂閱的成長情況。這才是公司實現長期發展的關鍵。

On cash flow, I'd say a couple of things. Cash flow for Q4 was artificially low. We had very interesting linearity in the quarter where the third month of the quarter, so January for us, saw more than half of our total sales get done. And since we bill net 30, we had a lot of -- in a normal linearity, normal 30, 30, 40, or the normal that we have experienced in the past few years, we would have seen about $95 million more cash flow from ops fall into Q4.

關於現金流，我想說幾點。第四季的現金流被人為壓低。本季出現了非常有趣的線性成長，季度中的第三個月（對我們來說是 1 月）完成了超過一半的總銷售額。由於我們採用淨額 30 天結算，因此，按照正常的線性規律，即正常的 30、30、40 天結算，或者說我們過去幾年經歷的正常情況，我們本應看到營運現金流在第四季度增加約 9500 萬美元。

But given the linearity of the quarter, given those sales got done late, that all is sitting in receivables. By the way our receivables is 100% current. There's no risk on that. But it's sitting in receivables and will now be collected in Q1.

但考慮到本季的線性結構，考慮到這些銷售完成較晚，所有這些款項都計入了應收帳款。順便說一下，我們的應收帳款已全部收回。這樣做沒有任何風險。但這筆款項目前仍處於應收帳款中，將在第一季收回。

What it means is there's a headwind on the cash flow from ops we just reported for Q4 that will just ripple over into Q1. And if you remember what we said for free cash flow back at Investor Day. We said we thought it would be breakeven to slightly negative for fiscal 2017. And that now goes up by about $100 million year on year. So think of it being certainly positive, somewhere around that $50 million to $100 million range.

這意味著我們剛剛公佈的第四季營運現金流面臨不利因素，而這種不利因素將會波及到第一季。如果你還記得我們在投資人日上對自由現金流的陳述。我們曾表示，我們認為 2017 財年將達到損益兩平或略有虧損。而且現在每年成長約1億美元。所以可以肯定地說，這個數字是正的，大概在 5,000 萬美元到 1 億美元之間。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer from Griffin Securities.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

Thanks. Good evening. Carl, in the second half of this year, after you terminate perpetuals for suites, you'll be introducing your so-called collections. You've stated before that this is one of the opportunities you have to reduce the complexity in your business. Could you talk about how you've anticipated perhaps the cost savings in the selling process from introducing these new collections and improving or aiding the overall saleability process of introducing that?

謝謝。晚安.卡爾，今年下半年，在你停止推出套房式永久系列之後，你將推出你所謂的系列。你之前說過，這是你降低業務複雜性的機會之一。您能否談談您是如何預見到推出這些新系列產品可能會在銷售過程中節省成本，以及如何改進或幫助提高整體銷售效率的？

Let me just break this part into two halves, Jay. I don't think any of our financial guidance is just predicated on what we're going to do with collections. But we do think about it a lot. We would really like to simplify the offering. For a whole number of operational reasons, it's incredibly important that we do that.

傑伊，我把這部分分成兩個部分來講。我認為我們的任何財務指導都不是僅僅基於我們將如何處理催收工作。但我們確實經常考慮這個問題。我們真心希望簡化產品和服務。出於諸多營運方面的原因，這樣做至關重要。

The second, and probably more important thing that we're trying to accomplish with collections is to give an incentive for the existing customers, who are on maintenance for suites, a more attractive thing to move over to. So as we said, we want to try to use the carrot as much as possible to convince our customers, our best customers, who are on maintenance subscription, to move over. That's what we really are looking to do.

我們希望透過催收實現的第二件事，也是更重要的事，是為那些正在維護套房的現有客戶提供更有吸引力的升級方案。正如我們所說，我們希望盡可能利用激勵措施來說服我們的客戶，尤其是我們最好的客戶，那些目前處於維護訂閱狀態的客戶，遷移到新的服務。這正是我們真正想要做的。

At the same time, there's a great way to simplify our product portfolio. So we're going to use it for both those things. I think it will be important, and we'll get a better read on it as we go through the year. But, a lot of the financial modeling that we've been talking about, so far this afternoon, is really predicated on overall volume. And we're not assuming any kind of outsized performance from collections.

同時，我們還有一個很好的方法來簡化我們的產品組合。所以我們將把它用於這兩件事。我認為這很重要，隨著時間的推移，我們對此有更清晰的了解。但是，今天下午我們討論的許多財務模型實際上都是基於整體交易量的。我們並不指望收藏品能有超乎尋常的收益。

All right. At the analyst meeting, you mentioned that about a tenth of your named accounts had already adopted EBAs. And I was wondering if you now have an updated adoption rate, in light of the strength you highlighted for large deals in Q4?

好的。在分析師會議上，您提到您指定的客戶中約有十分之一已經採用了 EBA。鑑於您強調了第四季度大額交易的強勁勢頭，我想知道您現在是否有更新後的採用率數據？

And looking out, how would you talk about the pipeline or assumptions of close in the EBA pipeline for fiscal 2017? Our understanding is that you've got a number of interesting names in terms of industrial and automotive accounts for example. And perhaps you could talk about that?

展望未來，您會如何看待 2017 財年 EBA 專案完成情況或相關假設？據我們了解，你們在工業和汽車等領域擁有許多有趣的客戶。或許您可以談談這個？

We do. We have a lot of really large manufacturers and large construction companies. There are certainly other companies in there, a number of media and entertainment companies. So it's there, but it is focused on large manufacturing and large construction companies.

是的。我們有很多大型製造商和大型建築公司。裡面當然還有其他公司，一些媒體和娛樂公司。所以它確實存在，但它主要面向大型製造企業和大型建築公司。

I don't think we've hit 20% yet. So we're somewhere in that 10% to 20%. I don't have a more precise number at this point. There's still a lot of room to grow.

我認為我們還沒有達到20%。所以，我們大概在10%到20%之間。目前我還沒有更精確的數字。還有很大的發展空間。

And what's particularly good about this business, the growth in the businesses is not just the number of accounts, it's the growth within the accounts that's been so substantial. It's not like we signed an EBA, and it's the end. Remember, there's a consumption-based aspect to this as well. We detailed why we think it's a win-win.

這家企業特別好的地方在於，其業務成長不僅體現在客戶數量上，更體現在客戶內部的成長上，而且這種成長非常顯著。這不像我們簽了企業協議，然後一切就結束了。記住，這其中也存在著消費方面的因素。我們詳細闡述了我們認為這是一個雙贏局面的原因。

And so, the existing EBAs continue to grow. And more than 80% of our large customers are still not on these flexible licenses. The last part, just to tie both your questions together, Jay, is essentially collections is a form of flexible licensing for smaller customers that can be sold through the channel. So, what we really want to do is use the pattern. Just be the model that's worked so well for the enterprise and bring it to small and medium businesses, and allow our partners to sell more flexible consumption-based licenses as well.

因此，現有的企業協議持續成長。超過 80% 的大客戶仍然沒有採用這些靈活的授權模式。最後一部分，為了把你的兩個問題聯繫起來，Jay，本質上來說，合集是一種靈活的許可形式，適用於可以透過通路銷售的小客戶。所以，我們真正想做的就是運用這種模式。只需將這種在大企業中行之有效的模式推廣到中小企業，並允許我們的合作夥伴銷售更靈活的按消費量計費的許可證即可。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Keith Weiss from Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

Hey, guys, good afternoon. It's actually Stan Zlotsky sitting in for Keith. Wanted to come back to the restructuring that you guys announced. 10% headcount being taken out. Where are the -- the costs that are being taken out, where are they being reinvested as we head through fiscal 2017?

嘿，各位，下午好。實際上，是史丹·茲洛茨基代替基斯上場。我想再談談你們宣布的重組計劃。裁員10%。在進入 2017 財年之際，那些被削減的成本，又被重新投資到哪裡去了？

So there's only a small amount of reinvestment. But if you want to think about it, there's probably three areas where we're doing reinvestment. One area is moving to more inside sales, which I think is really important.

因此，再投資的金額很小。但仔細想想，我們大概在三個領域再投資。其中一個領域正在轉向更多的內部銷售，我認為這非常重要。

The second is we continue to build out our back office. So remember, these flexible license offerings we talk about and are so proud about, we actually need to build the infrastructure to support that. Consumption-based models need it, so we're still investing in doing that.

第二點是我們繼續完善後台營運。所以請記住，我們談論並引以為豪的這些靈活的許可方案，實際上需要建立基礎設施來支援。基於消費的模式需要它，所以我們仍在為此進行投資。

And then the third thing that we're doing -- I know it's gotten a lot less focus. I feel like I could stand on my head and talk about this and it still doesn't matter. But, the really big thing we're doing is investing in the cloud and mobile. And we're trying to change the dynamics of the market. And we are continuing to invest in that. And so some of it is tied to cloud infrastructure and things like that.

然後是我們正在做的第三件事——我知道它受到的關注較少。我覺得就算我倒立著談論這件事，也無濟於事。但是，我們正在做的真正大事是投資雲端運算和行動技術。我們正在努力改變市場格局。我們將繼續加大對該領域的投資。因此，其中一些與雲端基礎設施等相關。

As you step down a level, you would see things like continued investment in our enterprise sales force, things that are working. But you know, some of that starts to fall in the category of the regular rejiggering you do within a business. Clearly, we have less people selling in Russia than we used to and more people on major accounts. Hopefully, Stan, those give you kind of the areas.

再往下看，你會看到諸如我們持續投資企業銷售團隊等行之有效的措施。但你知道，其中一些就屬於企業內部進行的常規調整的範疇了。顯然，我們在俄羅斯的銷售人員比以前少了，而負責大客戶的人員則多了。史丹，希望這些資訊能讓你大致了解狀況。

Yes, that's very helpful. Maybe one more, one more for Scott. What layers of conservatism or maybe how did you approach your thinking around the mid-point of 500,000 guidance for subs for fiscal 2017? And that's it from me, thank you.

是的，這很有幫助。或許再來一杯，再給斯科特一杯。您在確定 2017 財年訂閱用戶數量 50 萬的指導目標時，考慮了哪些保守因素，或者說，您是如何思考這一目標的？我的發言就到這裡，謝謝大家。

Yes, Stan, we really built it bottoms up. We look at a handful of things. One, that we've already talked about, which is we'll hit the end of sale of perpetual license for suites mid-year, do expect some buying behavior much like we saw at the very end of Q4, when we hit the end of sale on individual products. So I think that will put some upward pressure on maintenance subs in the first half of the year.

是的，史丹，我們真的是從零開始建造的。我們考察幾個面向。我們已經討論過一點，那就是我們將在年中結束套件的永久許可銷售，預計會出現一些類似於我們在第四季度末單一產品銷售結束時所看到的購買行為。所以我認為這將在今年上半年給維修分包商帶來一些上漲壓力。

But then the second half of the year, there's no new maintenance subs. While we have a high renewal rate on maintenance, it's not 100%. Maintenance turns around and becomes for the full year, it becomes a headwind for us on subscriber adds.

但到了下半年，就沒有新的維修分包商了。雖然我們的維護續約率很高，但還不是 100%。維護費用轉為全年費用，對我們增加訂閱用戶來說是一個不利因素。

The remainder is looking at what we've seen this year and what we think will happen next year in terms of unit volumes and knowing that for the second half of the year, those unit volumes will all be, in some form or fashion, a subscription. So, it's putting those two together and really building it bottoms up, with the assumption on renewal rates that leads us to that mid-point.

剩下的部分是著眼於我們今年所看到的，以及我們認為明年銷量將會如何變化，並且要知道，下半年的銷量都將以某種形式或方式體現為訂閱。所以，就是將這兩者結合起來，真正自下而上地構建，並假設續約率將我們引向中間點。

If you just look at the numbers, those are the ones that we have the greatest confidence in. The question about conservatism, we probably are conservative on the side of some of the cloud subscriptions. I think there's a lot more to be done there. And I think this is going to look much more like the adoption of any new technology.

單從數字來看，這些都是我們最有信心的數字。關於保守主義的問題，我們可能在某些雲端訂閱方面持保守態度。我認為那裡還有很多工作要做。我認為這看起來更像是任何新技術的採用過程。

There will be a tipping point. I can't tell you exactly where it is. We're happy with the growth rates we see today. But there will be a tipping point just as we've seen with the adoption of almost every other technology we've ever introduced.

總會有一個轉折點。我無法告訴你它具體在哪裡。我們對目前的成長率感到滿意。但正如我們過去引進的幾乎所有其他技術一樣，總會有一個轉折點。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ken Wong from Citigroup.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ken Wong。

Hey, guys. Maybe a question first for Scott. In terms of your spend target for next year being flat to down 1%, any conservatism baked into that particular number? I get from the top-line and from subscriber-base perspective, it's particularly tough to gauge what might happen. But from spending, you guys generally control most of that, so.

嘿，夥計們。或許可以先問斯科特一個問題。就您明年設定的支出目標（持平或下降 1%）而言，這個數字是否包含任何保守因素？從總收入和訂閱用戶數量的角度來看，很難準確預測未來會發生什麼。但是就消費而言，你們通常控制著大部分，所以。

Yes, I wouldn't say there's aggressiveness or conservatism built into that number, Ken. That's one that's fully in our control. Really the only variable there is if variable comp goes way up because we have a blow-out year. By the way, we gauge that on subscriber growth. So, I think that would actually be a good thing if it went up. The spend number is one we've got a pretty firm handle on.

是的，肯，我不會說這個數字蘊含著侵略性或保守性。這件事完全在我們掌控之中。唯一可能出現變數的是，如果因為今年業績大好而導致可變薪酬大幅上漲。順便一提，我們是根據使用者成長情況來衡量的。所以，我認為如果上漲的話，實際上會是一件好事。我們對支出數字掌握得相當準確。

Got you. And then the follow-up. Carl, in terms of your new subs, what are you guys seeing on renewal rates, maybe not specific renewal rates, but relative to internal targets, is that coming in better than expected? And how should we think about that going forward?

抓到你了。然後是後續跟進。卡爾，就你們的新用戶而言，續訂率如何？也許不是具體的續訂率，而是相對於內部目標而言，情況是否比預期好？那麼，我們接下來該如何看待這個問題呢？

So far, so good. All of that looks really good.

到目前為止，一切都很好。這一切看起來都非常棒。

I'd say when you look at both the -- so on the maintenance side, we look at attach rate and renewal. And then of course, in the new model subs we look at renewal. And we've seen upward pressure across the board, on both attach rates and renewal rates.

我認為，當你同時考慮維護方面時，我們會專注於附加率和續保率。當然，在新模式的子會員制度中，我們也會考慮續約問題。我們看到，無論是附加率還是續保率，都面臨著全面上行的壓力。

So I'd say that's one of those, as Carl talked about, look at next year or fiscal 2017 with a lot of excitement. And a lot of that's based on what we've seen now in terms of the acceptance of the new models. And what we're also seeing on the general bias upward.

所以我覺得，就像卡爾所說的那樣，讓我們滿懷期待地展望明年或 2017 財年。而這很大程度上是基於我們目前所看到的，即人們對新模式的接受程度。我們也看到整體上存在向上傾斜的趨勢。

And I think it will continue. If you want to think about this, with the end of sale of the perpetual licenses for individual products last quarter, and the ones for suites next quarter, customers are more incented than ever to stay on the program that they're on. In the past, somebody could get off and then get back on relatively painlessly. That is no longer a possibility by the second half of this year. So I think it will continue to lend pressure on an upward bias.

我認為這種情況還會持續下去。仔細想想，隨著上個季度單一產品的永久許可證銷售結束，以及下個季度套件的永久許可證銷售結束，客戶比以往任何時候都更有動力繼續使用他們正在使用的計劃。過去，有人可以下車，然後再相對輕鬆地重新上車。到今年下半年，這種情況已不可能發生。所以我認為這將繼續對上漲趨勢構成壓力。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Steve Ashley from Robert W. Baird.

謝謝。下一個問題來自羅伯特·W·貝爾德的史蒂夫·阿什利。

Thanks so much. Was wondering if you might be willing to disclose what kind of unit volume you had in the year just ended FY16?

非常感謝。我想問一下您願不願意透露您剛結束的2016財年的銷售量是多少？

Unit volume was about 650,000 licenses.

單價約 65 萬張許可證。

Perfect. At the Analyst Day, you gave an outline chart showing what you thought that revenue might be going out to FY22, what expenses might be, what margins might be. You've already commented that you're tweaking it a little bit, with screwing down the expense growth a little more than that. And in the near term, maybe the revenue isn't what you thought.

完美的。在分析師日上，您提供了一張概要圖表，顯示了您認為到 2022 財年的收入可能是多少，支出可能是多少，利潤率可能是多少。您之前已經提到過，您正在對其進行一些調整，進一步降低支出成長。短期來看，收入可能不如你預期的。

But if we look in those out years of FY21 and FY22, is your revenue expectation for that still similar to what it was back at the Analyst Day?

但如果我們展望 2021 財年和 2022 財年，您對這兩年的營收預期是否仍與分析師日時的情況類似？

Let me start at the end and then I'll work backward. The answer is yes. Our revenue outlook in the out years is still exactly what we outlined.

讓我從結尾開始，然後倒著寫。答案是肯定的。我們對未來幾年的收入預期仍然與我們先前預測的完全一致。

Okay.

好的。

To go back to the beginning of your question, I would say relative to September, our expenses are much lower, considerably lower.

回到你最初的問題，我想說，與九月相比，我們的開支要低得多，相當可觀。

Yes.

是的。

From 5% to 6% that we said was kind of the ceiling. Now we're talking about flat for the next two years and then moderating from there. So it's substantial. When you run the model, it has a dramatic effect, particularly having gone to flat in the first two years of this transition.

我們之前說，5%到6%差不多就是上限了。現在我們討論的是未來兩年經濟保持平穩，然後逐步放緩。所以這意義重大。當你運行該模型時，它會產生顯著的影響，尤其是在轉型的前兩年趨於平穩。

The revenue we're tweaking slightly. But the revenue is not about unit demand as we said, it's really whether people buy the new model or the old model. And all through this year, we will still have some variability, and some inability to predict exactly what happens.

我們正在對收入進行微調。但正如我們所說，收入與單位需求無關，而是取決於人們購買的是新款還是舊款。今年全年，情況仍會存在一些變數，我們也無法準確預測會發生什麼。

The good news is, we move to the end of the year, there's only one thing that people can buy new from us. And so, while in many ways this is painful to go through the transition, we do hit a point, probably in the middle of next year, where 80% or 90% of the revenue in the quarter comes off the balance sheet. So, if I go back to when I first started where you started every quarter at zero, you're now going to be at a place where you start every quarter with 80% or 90% of the tank full.

好消息是，到了年底，人們只能從我們這裡買到一樣新產品了。因此，雖然從很多方面來看，這種轉變是痛苦的，但我們確實會達到一個臨界點，可能在明年年中，屆時季度收入的 80% 或 90% 將不再計入資產負債表。所以，如果我回到最初的時候，那時你每季都是從零開始，那麼現在你每季開始時油箱都會有 80% 或 90% 的油量。

So, we use the word business model transition. And maybe some of it gets lost, but that's really what it means. So, our ability to predict that gets very good at that point. And your ability to model it gets very good at that point, as you watch us add the ARR.

所以，我們使用「商業模式轉型」這個詞。或許有些資訊會遺失，但這才是它真正的意義。所以，到那時，我們預測這種情況的能力就會非常強。到那時，當你看到我們加入 ARR 時，你的建模能力就會變得非常好。

Carl touched on this earlier. It's a somewhat paradoxical year. To the extent that customers continue to move more quickly to the new models, that's going to put downward pressure on the current year's reported revenues.

卡爾之前也提到過這一點。今年有點矛盾。如果消費者繼續加快向新車型的轉換速度，這將對本年度公佈的收入造成下行壓力。

However, when you look out in time, especially when you get out into fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, we talked about this, the overwhelming majority of our revenues are going to be driven by new model subs. While a faster move to new model will result in lower end on reported revenues for this year, it actually is good news for building up that base and getting to the numbers we laid out in the out years.

但是，從長遠來看，特別是到了 2019 財年和 2020 財年，我們之前也討論過這個問題，我們絕大部分的收入將由新型號的訂閱用戶推動。雖然加快向新模式的過渡會導致今年報告的收入下降，但這實際上對建立基礎並實現我們未來幾年制定的目標來說是個好消息。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Gregg Moskowitz from Cowen and Company.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Gregg Moskowitz。

Okay. Thank you very much, and good afternoon, guys. Carl, was wondering if you could give us a bit more insight into recent customer behavior in conjunction with the termination of perpetual standalone.

好的。非常感謝，各位下午好。卡爾，我想請你詳細分析最近客戶的行為，特別是隨著永久獨立模式的終止。

For customers that opted not to buy one last license prior to the end of January, did a lot of them buy a subscription instead before the end of the month? Did they wait one, two, three weeks after the quarter and then move forward, or have they yet to make a decision? Just wondering any more color you could provide on that typical customer, just from what you've seen and heard so far.

對於那些選擇不在 1 月底前購買最後一個許可證的客戶，他們中有多少人轉而在月底前購買了訂閱服務？他們是在季度結束後等待了一、二、三週後才繼續推進，還是尚未做出決定？我想知道，根據你目前所見所聞，你還能提供一些關於典型客戶的更多資訊嗎？

What it looks like to us is most of the customers are moving to the desktop subscription. That's the general one. There's still enough choices out there, and still enough people that we can't totally account for. But we won't really know. We'll get a much better feel in Q3, as this becomes the only way to buy.

在我們看來，大多數客戶都在轉向桌面訂閱模式。這是個普遍的說法。市場上仍然有很多選擇，而且仍然有很多我們無法完全掌控的人。但我們永遠不會知道。第三季我們會對情況有更清晰的了解，因為這將成為唯一的購買方式。

But from all the anecdotal info, talking to our partners, what people are tending to do is buy desktop subscription. Like we said, we thought about 10% of the volume was people who were taking advantage of the last moment opportunity to buy. I think we'll see that again in Q2. Maybe slightly stronger with the suites, but I'm not convinced of that yet.

但從我們與合作夥伴交流獲得的各種傳聞資訊來看，人們傾向於購買桌面訂閱。正如我們所說，我們認為大約 10% 的交易量是人們抓住最後一刻機會購買的。我認為我們會在第二季度再次看到這種情況。套房可能略勝一籌，但我對此還不能確定。

But many people are finding desktop subscription a really attractive alternative. Maybe when we started talking about this a couple of years ago, we were the tall pole in the tent or something about this. We are no longer the tall pole in the tent.

但許多人發現桌面訂閱是一種非常有吸引力的替代方案。也許幾年前我們開始討論這個問題的時候，我們算是這方面的領頭羊之類的。我們不再是帳篷裡的頂樑柱了。

The entire software industry is moving to these kinds of licensing models. And customers are just getting much more comfortable. And they understand what the benefit to them is of buying this way. I think there will be some noise for a while. But by the second half of the year, we're well into the single model, and by next year, it's kind of all done.

整個軟體產業都在轉型為這類授權模式。顧客們也越來越感到舒適。他們明白這種購買方式對他們有什麼好處。我認為接下來一段時間都會有些混亂。但到了下半年，我們就完全進入了單一模式，到明年，這一切基本上已經完成了。

Gregg, I think one of the best indicators is, if you look at Q4 results, not only did we see, as Carl said, a small buy ahead on the perpetual side, but we have had the biggest quarter we've ever had for organic new subscription adds. We actually saw both at the same time. It wasn't, I'll buy one or I'll buy the other.

格雷格，我認為最好的指標之一是，如果你看一下第四季度的業績，不僅如卡爾所說，我們看到永續合約方面出現了小幅買入，而且我們的有機新訂閱用戶增長也達到了有史以來最高的季度。我們實際上是同時看到了這兩個。不是這樣的，我要嘛買這個，要嘛買那個。

We had the biggest quarter ever for new model subscription adds. And we had the end of sale, which drove some buying activity on perpetual licenses. So, I think it's tempting to say I'm going to do this or I'm going to do that. What we're seeing is both is happening, two different customer sets.

我們本季新增車型訂閱量創歷史新高。此外，促銷活動也結束了，這推動了一些永久許可證的購買活動。所以，我覺得人們很容易說我要做這件事或我要做那件事。我們看到的是兩種情況同時發生，涉及兩類不同的客戶群。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brendan Barnicle from Pacific Crest Securities.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自太平洋證券公司的 Brendan Barnicle。

As a follow up to that question on new model subs. At the Analyst Day, you guys shared that I think 40% of the desktop subs were new to Autodesk. Do you have any updates on what those look like, as you look back over the year, in terms of net new customers to you on the subs?

關於新型號潛水艇的問題，我想補充一點。在分析師日上，你們分享說，我認為桌面版訂閱用戶中有 40% 是 Autodesk 的新用戶。回顧過去一年，您能否提供一些關於訂閱用戶淨新增客戶狀況的最新資訊？

No, we don't have anything that we can update you on yet.

不，我們目前還沒有任何可以更新的資訊。

I wouldn't suspect there's any change there. But bear in mind there's a couple of statistics there. One is within desktop, how many of the desktop customers are net new to Autodesk. The other is, and this is really where the future lies, you remember some of the statistics we have on the cloud products, where they are overwhelmingly net new customers that are coming to Autodesk. It's still a small number today. As you look further out in the future, we talk about TAM expansion, we talk upside of making not just the business model change, pricing change, but the platform shift to the cloud. That platform shift really drives. We see a lot of net new customers to Autodesk and expands our TAM.

我並不認為那裡會有任何變化。但請記住，這裡有一些統計數據。一是桌面端用戶，有多少桌面端用戶是 Autodesk 的新用戶。另一種情況是，這是未來的發展方向，您可能還記得我們關於雲端產品的一些統計數據，其中絕大多數是新加入 Autodesk 的淨客戶。時至今日，這個數字仍然很小。展望未來，我們談到TAM擴張，談到不僅改變商業模式、改變定價，還要改變平台遷移到雲端所帶來的好處。平台轉型確實起了推動作用。我們看到 Autodesk 新增了許多客戶，擴大了我們的目標市場規模。

If you're looking at this carefully, just to put it in size and why we defer to the existing base. Our cloud products that are doing well are in the tens of thousands, as opposed to our other things, which are in the millions. So the growth rates can be high, the percentage of any particular characteristic can be high, but we're still comparing ten thousands. [And we only have] ten thousands growing at 50% a year, start turning into real numbers.

如果你仔細觀察一下，你會發現，為了說明它的大小以及我們為什麼遵循現有的基礎，我們需要這樣做。我們表現良好的雲端產品數量達到數萬，而我們的其他產品數量則達到數百萬。因此，成長率可能很高，任何特定特徵的百分比都可能很高，但我們仍然在比較成千上萬個數據。[而我們只有] 10000 家公司以每年 50% 的速度成長，開始變成實際數字。

You mentioned you'll be meeting with the channel next week. And you mentioned the collections product as one new offering for them. Any other changes that you expect to see in the channel this year, and anything related to the reorg and spending cuts that are going to change anything on that side?

你提到下週要和頻道方面會面。您提到收藏品是他們的新產品。您預計今年通路方面還會有其他變化嗎？重組和削減開支方面又會有哪些變化？

Yes, they will see collections and they will hear about that. They'll hear about new products. Some of the improvements in the back office, which should improve the efficiency of their businesses as well. There's always minor tweaks to the programs we have in place.

是的，他們會看到募款活動，也會聽到相關消息。他們會了解到新產品的資訊。後台的一些改進，也應該能提高他們的業務效率。我們現有的程序總是會有一些細微的調整。

But I don't see anything hugely different coming out of it, just one more year our partners follow us closely as you know, and we've been working pretty closely. I would be disappointed if anything we said was a huge surprise to our partners.

但我認為不會有太大的變化，只是又過了一年，我們的合作夥伴會像你所知的那樣密切關注我們，我們一直保持著非常緊密的合作。如果我們說的任何話讓伴侶感到非常意外，我會很失望。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Matt Hedberg from RBC Capital Markets.

謝謝。下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬特‧赫德伯格。

Hi. It's Dan Bergstrom for Matt Hedberg. Thanks for taking the question. To build on Heather's question, and even Steve's, with FY17 free cash flow moving higher, with the updated targets, should we still think of free cash flow bottoming in FY17? And then thinking back to the mentioned free cash flow glide path chart from Analyst Day, is there a quarter or year you'd point to when free cash flow would start to diverge from that chart and move more towards the updated targets?

你好。我是丹·伯格斯特羅姆，替馬特·赫德伯格。感謝您回答這個問題。為了進一步探討 Heather 和 Steve 提出的問題，鑑於 2017 財年自由現金流不斷增加，以及更新後的目標，我們是否仍認為自由現金流會在 2017 財年觸底？再回想一下分析師日上提到的自由現金流下滑路徑圖，您認為自由現金流會在哪個季度或哪一年開始偏離該圖表，並更接近更新後的目標？

I would say FY17 still looks like the bottom for free cash flow. FY18 still looks like the bottom for net cash versus net debt. I don't think that's changed. I think the hard part about pointing to the quarter that is the (inaudible). That is the actual bottom. Because linearity within a quarter has such a huge impact on free cash flow when you take these 90-day snapshots.

我認為2017財年仍然是自由現金流的底層。2018財年淨現金與淨負債比率似乎仍將觸底。我認為情況並沒有改變。我覺得最難的部分是指出四分之一（聽不清楚）。這就是真正的底部。因為季度內的線性變化對90天快照中的自由現金流有著巨大的影響。

Like we just talked about, the linearity of Q4, which was a strong quarter from any dimension. But because of the linearity we saw a lot of the sales that came in Q4 come in, in that third month. And depressed our reported free cash flows for Q4 by about $95 million, which now have shifted from Q4 and into Q1.

正如我們剛才討論的那樣，第四季度的線性成長，從任何角度來看都是一個強勁的季度。但由於線性成長的規律，我們看到第四季的大部分銷售額都集中在第三個月。導致我們第四季報告的自由現金流減少了約 9500 萬美元，現在這些現金流已從第四季度轉移到第一季。

So I think with linearity being such a large variable there, it's really hard to say this quarter definitively is going to be the bottom. But think of it as happening in FY17 from a free cash flow standpoint. And then from an accumulated cash standpoint think of that as FY18.

所以我覺得，由於線性關係是一個很大的變量，很難斷言本季一定是谷底。但從自由現金流的角度來看，這應該發生在 2017 財年。然後從累計現金的角度來看，可以將其視為 2018 財年。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Brent Thill from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫特希爾。

Carl, I think maybe your answer's going to be you're going to have to wait to my question. But when you think about the suite bundles that you're going to have available, you have a very complex lineup of products. And I think everyone's trying to understand how you think about directionally the number of bundles, what they look like? Is this just something we're going to have to wait, or is there any hints in terms of how we should think about that?

卡爾，我想你的答案可能是，你得等我問完問題才能回答。但是，當你考慮到你將要提供的套裝組合時，你會發現產品陣容非常複雜。我認為大家都在試圖理解你如何從方向上考慮捆綁的數量，以及它們看起來是什麼樣子？這件事我們只能等待嗎？還是說有什麼線索可以幫助我們思考這個問題？

You don't have to wait that long. We're going to be rolling them out to our partners. But basically it looks like, think of it as a couple per industry. Kind of in rough terms. I could give you a lot more detail, but just think of it as a couple per industry.

你不用等那麼久。我們將陸續向合作夥伴推出這些產品。但基本上看起來，可以把它想像成每個行業一對夫婦。大概就是這個意思。我可以提供更多細節，但你可以把它理解為每個行業幾個例子。

And then there will be a handful of stand-alone products that generally are in different price points and different levels of sophistication and complexity. For example, some of our complex simulation tools, like Moldflow, we're not going to wrap into a bundle. Because it just doesn't hit a broad enough section of the base. So the things that we're putting into the collections are the things that we think will be broadly used. And we're going to put together a couple of offerings in each of our three large industries that we serve.

此外，還有一些獨立產品，它們的價格、複雜程度和精細程度通常各不相同。例如，我們的一些複雜的模擬工具，如 Moldflow，我們不會將其打包成一個軟體包。因為它無法覆蓋足夠大的底座區域。因此，我們收藏的物品都是我們認為會被廣泛使用的物品。我們將針對我們所服務的三大產業，分別推出幾項產品和服務。

The way to think about it is the goal is first of all, to simplify. And so you'll see us bring down what is a fairly large menu of offerings into a much simpler set of offerings, point one. And the second is to drive consumption, to build those bundles in a way that drives product consumption. Much like we see with the T-Flex on the very high end.

思考這個問題的方式是，首要目標是簡化。因此，你會看到我們將相當多的菜餚簡化成一套更簡單的菜餚，第一點。第二點是促進消費，即以促進產品消費的方式來建構這些捆綁銷售。就像我們在高階的T-Flex上看到的那樣。

And just as a follow-up, Carl. There's many of the analysts on the call have covered software for close to two decades. It's been rare you see a seven-year out goal. And on the free cash flow number. And going looking at history, you've never achieved $750 million of cash flow. Yet, you're giving a $2.5 billion goal.

卡爾，我還有一個後續問題。參加電話會議的許多分析師都從事軟體行業近二十年了。七年後的目標並不常見。還有自由現金流數據。回顧歷史，你們從未實現 7.5 億美元的現金流。然而，你們卻設定了25億美元的目標。

I know this is an aspirational target and there's a lot of things that could change. But what gives you the confidence at this point to do that, when historically these long-term targets have been tough to hit?

我知道這是一個理想目標，還有很多事情可能會改變。但從歷史經驗來看，這些長期目標一直很難實現，是什麼讓你現在有信心做到這一點？

Good question, Brent. I think it's partially what I just answered. For example, we start building a model in which almost all of the revenue comes off the balance sheet. So just starting with that idea, that quarters used to start at zero, and will now start at 80% or 90% or 95% is different. You will also be able to look at things like the churn, and see the renewal rates and extrapolate from there.

問得好，布倫特。我覺得部分原因就是我剛剛回答的那些。例如，我們開始建立一個模型，其中幾乎所有的收入都來自資產負債表。所以，從這個想法開始，以前季度是從零開始的，現在季度將從 80%、90% 或 95% 開始，這已經不一樣了。您還可以查看客戶流失率等信息，了解續約率，並據此進行推斷。

We generally haven't gone out that far, but people really didn't understand the dynamic of this. And so we were just trying to put it in perspective. To the extent that you want to discount FY23, feel free to. It's way in the future. I think the FY20 is there.

我們通常不會走那麼遠，但人們真的不理解其中的動態。所以我們只是想從更全面的角度來看這件事。如果你想把2023財年的數據打折，那就隨便吧。那還遠在未來。我認為2020財年的目標已經實現了。

The problem we had, and really the reason why we gave details around FY23, is because FY20 or FY21 is still so much in the steep part of the curve. And so when we were doing that, and only talking about FY20, people were saying is that the terminal. Is it the terminal cash flow, is it the terminal EPS, is it the terminal operating margin? And it wasn't. And just to the extent now, that traditional financial metrics are going to go down, predictably, as a result of how we account for this, it's just as certain that they come up on the other side.

我們遇到的問題，以及我們詳細說明 2023 財年的原因，是因為 2020 財年或 2021 財年仍然處於曲線的陡峭部分。所以當我們這樣做，並且只談論 2020 財年時，人們說那就是終點站。是期末現金流？是期末每股盈餘？還是期末營業利益率？但事實並非如此。而且，儘管由於我們對這種情況的會計處理方式，傳統財務指標不出所料地會下降，但同樣可以肯定的是，它們在另一邊也會上升。

So I'm totally fine with people wanting to discount FY23. We just wanted to make sure that people understood that's what our model looks like. And if you back off it, and look, we've impressed, there's some people who think we should be able to get to a lot more. There's some people who get to less. But you can look at it in a pretty reasonable way thinking about the number of subscribers.

所以我完全不介意大家對2023財年進行折扣。我們只是想確保人們明白我們的模式是這樣的。如果你退一步想想，你會發現，我們已經取得了令人矚目的成就，有些人認為我們應該能夠取得更大的成就。有些人得到的更少。但從訂閱用戶數量的角度來看，這其實相當合理。

Because remember, if anything, we have been attacked for our ARPS. So there's not a lot of assumption about the ARPS going up. So it really is all about subscribers. And then ARR really translates directly to revenue. Put whatever discount you want on it, Brent.

因為請記住，我們之所以受到攻擊，正是因為我們的ARPS系統。所以，對於ARPS上漲並沒有太多的預期。所以，一切的關鍵其實在於訂閱用戶。然後，ARR 就能直接轉化為收入。布倫特，你想打多低點折扣都行。

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Steve Koenig from Wedbush Securities.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Steve Koenig。

Hi, gentlemen. Thanks a lot for squeezing me in. I wanted to ask you a little bit about the long-term trajectory when it comes to thinking about new users. And I know that there's definitional issues there.

各位先生，大家好。非常感謝你擠出時間幫我。我想請教一下，在考慮新用戶方面，長期發展軌跡是怎麼樣的？我知道這裡面有定義上的問題。

But if we suppose that out of your 650,000 seat sales, run rate, let's just say for the sake of argument, half of those are kind of new users, versus half are people that are active, but weren't regularly paying, and maybe buying a new license or something. Unless I mangled that. If I'm thinking about that the right way.

但如果我們假設，在您 65 萬個席位的銷售量中，為了方便討論，我們假設其中一半是新用戶，另一半是活躍用戶，但他們以前沒有定期付費，現在可能購買了新的許可證或其他東西。除非我理解錯了。如果我理解正確的話。

If we can assume that, what happens to that new user addition number as you move you through the transition? Can that 300,000 go up due to adding pirated users? It probably should go up, you should be adding those old licensed users as subscriptions. But then those become renewals later in time. So, you how can we think about the unit sales and the seat sales as we move along the transition?

如果我們可以這樣假設，那麼在您完成過渡的過程中，新增使用者數量會發生什麼變化？由於盜版用戶的加入，這30萬用戶數會不會增加？它可能應該上調，你應該把那些舊的授權用戶加入為訂閱用戶。但之後這些都會變成續約。那麼，在轉型過程中，我們該如何看待銷售量和座位銷售呢？

We would hope to see those continually going up. We've been pretty modest in our assumptions. You're right, you have the old subscribers. And remember, the definitional issue really gets to this thing of a user could be at a different company but they have been a user before. Let's just ignore that for a second. The old subscribers would be there.

我們希望看到這些數字持續上升。我們的假設一直都相當保守。你說得對，你們還有老用戶。請記住，定義問題實際上涉及到這樣一個事實：用戶可能在不同的公司，但他們以前一直是用戶。我們先忽略這一點。老用戶們都會在。

Piracy, we think this will put a significant dent in casual piracy. And as we said, the new offerings are the places where we're getting new customers. So come at this a different way. We talk about sometimes it's TAM expansion. We talk about it as new users.

我們認為這將對非正式盜版行為造成重大打擊。正如我們所說，新產品和服務是我們獲得新客戶的地方。所以，不妨換個角度來看這個問題。我們有時會談到TAM擴張。我們以新用戶的身份來討論這個問題。

I referenced 100 million people in manufacturing and construction, who didn't have a need for many of the tools we previously sold. They do now, whether that's BIM 360 or PLM 360. Those are new users. Those new users may be inside of existing customers or they may be in new accounts. But we've even given you an indication of in many of these products, a relatively high, in almost all cases, a majority of the customers that are doing it are not traditional customers.

我提到了製造業和建築業的 1 億人，他們並不需要我們之前銷售的許多工具。現在確實如此，無論是 BIM 360 還是 PLM 360。這些都是新用戶。這些新用戶可能是現有客戶中的用戶，也可能是新註冊的用戶。但我們甚至已經向您表明，在許多此類產品中，相當高的比例，幾乎在所有情況下，這樣做的大多數客戶都不是傳統客戶。

The other thing that I think is really important, I know you guys do not want to bake too much into this into your model. But we're running a business, not a spreadsheet. And in our world, the investments we've made in going to cloud-based engineering tools has led us to have a leadership position in that. We deeply believe that the future of all software is in the cloud and in mobile, and it opens up big markets.

我覺得還有一點非常重要，我知道你們不想在模型中過度考慮這一點。但我們經營的是企業，不是電子表格。在我們的領域，我們對基於雲端的工程工具的投資使我們在該領域佔據了領先地位。我們深信，所有軟體的未來都在雲端和行動端，這將開啟龐大的市場。

I've always believed for people who invest in Autodesk, this is one of the fundamental tenants you should believe in. There are less difficult ways to get there. But we think the business model transition starts the curve we just talked about with Brent. But if that is going to continue into the out years, that's based on the fact that we expand into new markets, get new users, and win the platform of the future.

我一直認為，對於投資 Autodesk 的人來說，這是你應該相信的基本原則之一。還有更簡單的到達方式。但我們認為，商業模式的轉變開啟了我們剛才和布倫特討論的那段曲線。但如果這種情況要持續到未來幾年，那就取決於我們能否拓展新市場、獲得新用戶，並贏得未來的平台。

Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot, Carl.

偉大的。我就說到這兒吧。非常感謝，卡爾。

Okay. Good.

好的。好的。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Carl Bass, CEO, for any additional comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給執行長卡爾·巴斯，請他補充發言。

I just wanted to say one thing. I hesitate to do it because it's all been going so swimmingly. But I'm really just trying to avoid work for Dave and Scott and I over the next couple of days. In having the same conversation several dozen different times. Because I've had it in private even as I go down to the coffee store, I get asked by all the investors in our building. That's just the question of what's going on with our activist investors.

我只想說一件事。我猶豫要不要這麼做，因為一切都進行得太順利了。但我真的只是想在接下來的幾天裡，盡量避免我和戴夫、史考特一起工作。同樣的對話重複了幾十個。因為我私下也帶著它，即使我去咖啡店，我們大樓裡的所有投資者都會問我。這只是關於我們激進投資者那邊發生了什麼事的問題。

So, I just want to take that head on and happy to talk about it privately with others. But it seems like a mistake not to address it to some degree. So let me just give you my you viewpoint on this. The first thing is, that I think a number of the 13-D filers as well as some of the activist investors have raised legitimate concerns.

所以，我只想正面應對這個問題，也樂意私下與其他人討論這個問題。但完全不去解決這個問題似乎是個錯誤。那麼，讓我來談談我對此事的看法。首先，我認為許多提交 13-D 文件的投資者以及一些激進投資者提出了合理的擔憂。

The one part that kind of troubles me about it is that there are other long-term investors, really constructive investors, who have raised the same issues in a much better way. And so while we are absolutely talking to the activist investors, I think too much credit is being given to them, and not enough credit is being given to our long-term investors, who have asked for change in a constructive way.

讓我感到有些困擾的是，還有其他一些長期投資者，一些真正具有建設性的投資者，他們以更好的方式提出了同樣的問題。因此，雖然我們確實在與激進投資者進行對話，但我認為人們對他們給予了過高的評價，而對我們以建設性方式要求變革的長期投資者給予的評價卻不夠。

They've understood the subtleties and complexities of (inaudible) business. And they truly have taken the time to understand what the challenges and the opportunities we face. And so I feel like they're getting the short end of the stick when they've really pulled the labor (inaudible) supporting the Company over the long period. Many of my problems with some of the more activist investors is that their focus is extremely short-term and somewhat simplistic. They just ignore some of the complexities of running a business.

他們了解商業的微妙之處和複雜性。他們確實花時間去了解我們面臨的挑戰和機會。所以我覺得他們吃了虧，因為他們長期以來為公司付出了大量的勞動（聽不清楚）。我對一些激進投資者的諸多不滿之處在於，他們的關注點過於短期，而且有些過於簡化。他們完全忽略了經營企業的一些複雜性。

A lighter note for a second, then I'll return to being more serious. Let me just tell you what my concern is. It's easy to sit on the outside and have lots of good ideas how to do this or that thing better. Or why things should move more quickly.

先輕鬆一下，然後我再恢復嚴肅的語氣。讓我直接告訴你我的擔憂。置身事外很容易就有很多關於如何把這事或那事做得更好的好點子。或者說，為什麼事情應該會更快。

As a matter of fact, if you turn on sports radio or political talk radio, on sports radio you can hear thousands of people who know what the coach or general manager or the owner should have done differently. I'm worried about that. I watched the game last night. I have a million ideas of what the coach should do. I didn't actually have to do the job.

事實上，如果你打開體育廣播或政治談話廣播，在體育廣播中，你會聽到成千上萬的人在談論教練、總經理或老闆本來應該採取哪些不同的做法。我對此感到擔憂。我昨晚看了比賽。我有很多關於教練應該怎麼做的想法。我其實不必做那份工作。

In a nutshell, my concern is people who essentially want to turn Autodesk into Men's Warehouse. If you look, I don't think any of the people who got involved in Men's Warehouse intentionally meant to do damage to the company. I don't think they meant to screw it up. But I think they had some simplistic views. And what troubles me is seeing those same views expressed about our business.

簡而言之，我擔心的是那些想把 Autodesk 變成 Men's Warehouse 的人。仔細想想，我認為參與 Men's Warehouse 的那些人，沒有一個是故意想要損害公司的。我覺得他們不是故意搞砸的。但我認為他們的觀點有些過於簡單。令我擔憂的是，也有人對我們公司表達了同樣的看法。

I've got one little funny story here. I looked up Men's Warehouse the other day. And they changed the name of the company and the symbol. And what I thought was interesting is changing the name makes it actually hard to track the price and how poorly it's performed. But the symbol is a little of a tell-tale sign. If you look at it, and squint, it's spelled TURD. It's actually TLRD. But it's what it looks like, and it's probably more like it.

我這裡有個小趣事。前幾天我查了一下男裝店 Men's Warehouse。他們更改了公司名稱和標誌。我覺得有趣的是，更改名稱實際上使得追蹤價格和其糟糕的業績變得更加困難。但這個符號其實有點蹊蹺。如果你瞇起眼睛仔細看，它拼成了「TURD」（糞便）。其實是 TLRD。但看起來就是這樣，而且可能更接近事實。

Let me try to end this on a more serious note. We are talking to the activists. We would like to shift the conversation to the active investors to a more constructive dialogue. There is certainly a possibility that together we can do that.

讓我以更嚴肅的語氣結束今天的談話。我們正在與活動人士對話。我們希望將與積極投資者的對話轉向更具建設性的討論。我們完全有可能透過共同努力實現這一點。

And most importantly, I just want to say thank you to our long-term shareholders, who have understood what the challenges are, but really the fantastic opportunities the Company has. Thanks.

最重要的是，我要感謝我們的長期股東，他們理解公司面臨的挑戰，但也看到了公司擁有的巨大機會。謝謝。

That concludes this afternoon's call. As many of you know, we'll be at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 3. If you need to contact me directly, you can reach me at 415-507-6033. Thanks.

今天下午的電話會議到此結束。正如你們許多人所知，我們將於3月3日參加摩根士丹利會議。如果您需要直接聯絡我，可以撥打415-507-6033聯絡我。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a good day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。程式到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。