Autodesk Inc (ADSK) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Autodesk Q3 of FY16 earnings conference call.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Autodesk 2016 財年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. David Gennarelli, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.

再次提醒，本次會議正在錄影。我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係資深總監大衛‧詹納雷利先生。先生，請開始。

Thank, operator. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss our results for the third quarter of FY16. Also on the line is Carl Bass, our CEO; and Scott Herren, our CFO. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast. In addition, a replay of the call will be available at Autodesk.com/investor.

謝謝接線生。午安.感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論我們2016財年第三季的業績。我們的執行長卡爾·巴斯和財務長斯科特·赫倫也在線上。今天的電話會議將透過網路直播。此外，本次電話會議的錄音重播將在 Autodesk.com/investor 上提供。

As noted in our press release, we have published our prepared remarks on our website in advance of this call. Those remarks are intended to serve in place of extended formal comments, and we will not repeat them on this call.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們已提前在網站上公佈了我們準備好的演講稿。這些發言旨在代替冗長的正式發言，我們將在本次通話中不再贅述。

During the course of this conference call we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the anticipated future performance of the Company, such as our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year FY16, our long-term financial model guidance, the factors we use to estimate our guidance including currency head winds, our transition to new business models, our market opportunities and strategies, and trends for various products, geographies, and industries. We caution you that such statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, and that actual events or results could differ materially.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就未來事件和公司預期未來業績發表前瞻性聲明，例如我們對 2016 財年第四季度和全年的業績指引、我們的長期財務模型指引、我們用於估算業績指引的因素（包括匯率不利因素）、我們向新業務模式的轉型、我們的市場機會和戰略，以及各種產品、地區和行業的趨勢。我們提醒您，此類聲明反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。

Please refer to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, specifically our Form 10-K for the FY15, our Form 10-Q for the periods ended April 30 and July 31, 2015, and our current reports on Form 8-K, including the Form 8-K filed with today's press release and prepared remarks. Those documents contain and identify important risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those contained in our forward-looking statements.

請參閱我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是我們的 2015 財年 10-K 表格、截至 2015 年 4 月 30 日和 7 月 31 日的 10-Q 表格以及我們當前的 8-K 表格報告，包括今天隨新聞稿和準備好的發言稿一起提交表格的 8-K 表格。這些文件包含並指明了可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果之間存在差異的重要風險和其他因素。

Forward-looking statements made during the call are being made as of today. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information presented during the call may not contain current or accurate information. Autodesk disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. We will provide guidance on today's call, but will not provide any further guidance or updates on our performance during the quarter, unless we do so in a public forum.

本次電話會議中所作的前瞻性陳述均以今日為準。如果今天之後重播或回顧此通話，通話期間提供的資訊可能不再是最新或準確的資訊。Autodesk公司聲明不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上提供指導，但除非在公開場合，否則不會提供任何關於本季業績的進一步指導或更新。

During the call we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. A reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results is provided in today's press release, prepared remarks, and on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will quote a number of numeric or growth changes as we discuss our financial performance, and unless otherwise noted, each such reference represents a year-on-year comparison.

電話會議期間，我們也將討論非GAAP財務指標。這些非GAAP指標並非依照公認會計原則編製。我們在今天的新聞稿、準備好的演講稿以及我們網站的投資者關係部分提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果的調節表。在討論財務表現時，我們將引用一些數字或成長變化，除非另有說明，否則每個此類引用都代表同比比較。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Carl.

現在我想把電話交給卡爾。

Thanks, David, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，大衛，大家下午好。

At our Investor Day in late September, we laid out the vision and course for our business model transition. Overall, this quarter was in line with the plan we outlined. The performance of traditional P&L metrics like revenue, operating margin, and EPS, most of which were ahead of our expectations, were driven by slightly more perpetual licensed sales than expected. Metrics like billings and total subscription additions were below our expectations. We'll be in this hybrid model for the next few quarters.

在九月下旬的投資者日上，我們闡述了商業模式轉型的願景和路線圖。總體而言，本季符合我們所製定的計劃。傳統損益指標（如收入、營業利潤率和每股盈餘）的表現大多超出預期，這主要得益於永久授權銷售額略高於預期。帳單金額和新增訂閱用戶總數等指標均低於我們的預期。接下來的幾個季度，我們將繼續採用這種混合模式。

As a reminder, we'll stop selling new perpetual licenses for individual products on February 1, and most of the rest of the products, including suites, on August 1 of next year. At that point, metrics like subscription additions and ARR will begin to be more predictable.

再次提醒大家，我們將於 2 月 1 日停止銷售單一產品的新永久許可證，並於明年 8 月 1 日停止銷售包括套裝在內的大部分其他產品的新永久許可證。屆時，訂閱用戶成長量和年度經常性收入等指標將變得更加可預測。

Most importantly, we are pleased with the total unit volume of licenses sold in the quarter, which was in line with historical ranges, and we're on track to add approximately 600,000 or more units for the fiscal year. This number is critically important for two reasons. First, it is the best indicator of the health of the business while customers have two different ways to buy our products. Secondly, it drives new subscription additions starting in Q3, where perpetual licenses are no longer offered. We were also pleased with the continued growth of our desktop subscription sales and growth in new model ARR.

最重要的是，我們對本季售出的許可證總數量感到滿意，這與歷史範圍相符，我們預計在本財年新增約 60 萬份或更多許可證。這個數字至關重要，原因有二。首先，它是衡量企業健康狀況的最佳指標，因為客戶有兩種不同的方式購買我們的產品。其次，從第三季開始，由於不再提供永久許可證，這將推動新的訂閱用戶增加。我們也對桌面訂閱銷售額的持續成長以及新模式 ARR 的成長感到滿意。

From an operational perspective, we continue to make critical investments. Infrastructure from the business model transition and our cloud platform and services remain the top priorities. At the same time, we've been focused on managing our overall spend, and creating increased efficiencies throughout the organization, which led to only 1% growth in total spend for the quarter. This is part of a much larger plan to ratchet down expenses as we move through the transition.

從營運角度來看，我們將繼續進行關鍵投資。業務模式轉型所需的基礎設施以及我們的雲端平台和服務仍然是重中之重。同時，我們一直專注於管理整體支出，並在整個組織內提高效率，這使得本季總支出僅增加了 1%。這是我們逐步降低開支的更大計劃的一部分。

One particular cost saving action we have taken recently is our decision to exit the hardware business at the end of this quarter for our creative finishing products within our media and entertainment group. This is a small portion of our overall business, but comes with substantially lower margins. It's really a win-win, as customers have been asking for hardware freedom, channel partners have wanted to sell it, and it will benefit our margins over time.

我們最近採取的一項特別節約成本的措施是，決定在本季末退出媒體和娛樂集團旗下創意後加工產品的硬體業務。這在我們整體業務中佔比很小，但利潤率卻低得多。這真是雙贏的局面，因為客戶一直要求硬體自由，通路合作夥伴也想銷售它，而且從長遠來看，這將有利於我們的利潤。

Another area where we expect to achieve cost savings and margin benefits is with our e-store. We just launched our new North American e-store this month, after years of it being hosted by a third party. The new site creates a better customer experience and reduces the cost of these online transactions. This is important, because we believe we can meaningfully increase the volume of business we do online.

我們期望在電子商務領域實現成本節約和利潤成長。經過多年的第三方託管，我們本月剛推出了全新的北美網上商店。新網站創造了更好的客戶體驗，並降低了線上交易的成本。這一點很重要，因為我們相信我們可以顯著提高線上業務量。

Finally, during Q3 we opportunistically took advantage of the low stock price to increase our stock buy-back. We purchased 3.2 million shares at an average cost of $46.33, bringing our total buy-back to 6.9 million shares year to date.

最後，在第三季度，我們抓住股價低迷的機會，增加了股票回購。我們以平均每股 46.33 美元的價格購入了 320 萬股，使我們今年迄今的股票回購總量達到了 690 萬股。

Now let me spend a little time on subscriptions. Once again, subscription additions were led by new model types, which increased over 130%, and represented over half of the subscription additions. Desktop subscriptions led the new model type additions. The volume of desktop subscriptions coming through our channel partners continued to increase. In Q3, channel volume of desktop subscriptions was over 60% of total desktop subs. That's up 44% in the third quarter last year, so it's clear that our channel partners are actively engaged with us through this transition, and are making desktop subscriptions an important part of their business mix. Looking ahead, we remain focused on driving new business, as well as converting the sizable base of non-subscribers to subscribers.

現在讓我花點時間談談訂閱服務。訂閱用戶新增數量再次以新車型為主，成長超過 130%，佔訂閱用戶新增總數的一半以上。桌面訂閱模式引領了新模式類型的加入。透過我們的通路合作夥伴獲得的桌面訂閱量持續成長。第三季度，桌面訂閱頻道數量佔桌面訂閱總數的 60% 以上。與去年第三季相比成長了 44%，這清楚地表明，我們的通路合作夥伴正在積極參與這一轉型過程中，並將桌面訂閱作為其業務組合的重要組成部分。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於拓展新業務，並將龐大的非訂閱用戶群轉化為訂閱用戶。

Recall that in the second quarter we discontinued selling perpetual license of LT in Australia and New Zealand, and the results were positive. We took that a step further in Q3 when we discontinued selling perpetual licenses of LT in the rest of Asia Pacific, with the exception of Japan. Once again, we experienced an increase in the unit volume of LT. It's another data point that gives us confidence going into the next few quarters.

回想一下，我們在第二季停止在澳洲和紐西蘭銷售 LT 的永久許可證，結果令人滿意。我們在第三季更進一步，停止在亞太地區（日本除外）銷售 LT 的永久許可證。LT 的單位體積再次增加。這是另一個讓我們對未來幾季充滿信心的數據點。

Attach and renewal rates for maintenance subscription remain strong. Last year's highly successful upgrade program made comparisons for new maintenance subscriptions challenging. Total ARR increased 18% in constant currency, with maintenance ARR growing 9%, and new model ARR more than doubling year on year at constant currency. Total recurring revenue increased to 56% of revenue, compared to 48% in the third quarter last year.

維護訂閱的附加費和續訂率仍然強勁。去年非常成功的升級計畫使得新的維護訂閱方案的比較變得困難。以固定匯率計算，總 ARR 成長了 18%，其中維護 ARR 成長了 9%，新車型 ARR 按固定匯率計算年增超過一倍。經常性收入佔總收入的比例增至 56%，而去年第三季為 48%。

Taking a closer look at our industry statements, let's start with AEC. We continue to win new business in AEC. One of the most prestigious architectural companies in the world just decided to standardize on Revit, the world's leading DIMM software. This particular firm has been using competitive products for the past 20 years.

讓我們仔細看看我們行業的聲明，首先來看 AEC 行業。我們在建築、工程和施工領域不斷贏得新業務。世界上最負盛名的建築公司之一決定採用 Revit，這是世界領先的 DIMM 軟體。這家公司在過去20年一直使用競爭對手的產品。

We are encouraged by the continued adoption of our cloud-based AEC tools. BIM 360, our cloud-based software for construction management, continues to grow rapidly. We recently signed an agreement with one of the top international contractors, where BIM 360 won out over competitive on-premise software. BIM 360 is being established as the primary construction field reporting and management tool for this firm's construction business units. A360 collaboration for Revit also experienced strong sequential growth in subscribers.

我們對雲端的 AEC 工具的持續普及感到鼓舞。我們的雲端施工管理軟體 BIM 360 持續快速成長。我們最近與一家頂尖的國際承包商簽署了一項協議，BIM 360 在與競爭對手的本地部署軟體的較量中勝出。BIM 360 正在被確立為該公司建築業務部門的主要施工現場報告和管理工具。A360 Collaboration for Revit 的用戶數量也實現了強勁的環比增長。

Turning to our manufacturing business, we continue to gain ground in all sectors, but particularly in automotive, aerospace, and industrial machinery. Inventor, Alias, and Fred continue to be very strong performers. Fusion 360, the first cloud-based 3D CAD system, experienced strong growth in adoption and usage. We clearly have the pole position in terms of bringing engineering software to the cloud. We're particularly encouraged by the use of Fusion in large companies switching from legacy systems such as SolidWorks.

再來看我們的製造業業務，我們在各個領域都持續取得進展，尤其是在汽車、航空航太和工業機械領域。發明家、別名和弗雷德的表現依然非常出色。Fusion 360 是首個基於雲端的 3D CAD 系統，其採用率和使用率都實現了強勁成長。在將工程軟體遷移到雲端方面，我們顯然處於領先地位。我們尤其感到鼓舞的是，許多大型公司正在從 SolidWorks 等傳統系統轉向使用 Fusion。

We're very encouraged by strong adoption in Enterprise accounts, even in industries that have been more cautious about use of cloud-based product design software. This comprehensive functionality built into a cloud-based platform has proven to be very compelling for companies looking for the next-generation product development software.

我們對企業客戶的強勁採用率感到非常鼓舞，即使在那些對使用基於雲端的產品設計軟體持謹慎態度的行業也是如此。這種整合到雲端平台中的全面功能，對於正在尋找下一代產品開發軟體的公司來說，已經證明非常有吸引力。

The strength of our simulation portfolio was evidenced this quarter by competitive wins at several high-profile enterprise accounts that have long been strongholds for the competition. These customers are focused on simulation early in the design process, and close alignment to design tools has proven to be a unique value driver. Our move to the cloud has proven to be a differentiated competitive advantage, especially with our SMB customers.

本季度，我們在幾家備受矚目的企業客戶中贏得了競爭性勝利，證明了我們模擬產品組合的實力，而這些客戶長期以來一直是競爭對手的堡壘。這些客戶在設計過程的早期階段就注重仿真，而與設計工具的緊密結合已被證明是獨特的價值驅動因素。事實證明，我們向雲端遷移是一項差異化的競爭優勢，尤其是在我們的中小企業客戶中。

We had another solid quarter with POM360. Speed and scale for deployment gives us competitive differentiation versus legacy on-premise solutions. Both new logos and total POM deals increased 50% in the quarter, and we continue to have a steady stream of existing POM customers come back to expand their original contracts. Going forward we're excited about scaling this business, starting with its strong pipeline going into Q4.

POM360 又迎來了一個穩健的季度。部署的速度和規模使我們相對於傳統的本地部署解決方案具有競爭優勢。本季新簽約客戶和 POM 總交易量均成長了 50%，而且我們持續有現有 POM 客戶回來續約。展望未來，我們對擴大這項業務充滿期待，首先要從第四季強勁的業務成長動能開始。

Now turning back to our model transition. I want to revisit the main themes we spoke about at our Investor Day last quarter. We're now a little over two months away from a major milestone in our transition -- the end of sale of perpetual license offerings for individual products.

現在讓我們回到模型轉換部分。我想重新回顧我們在上個季度投資者日上討論的主要議題。距離我們轉型過程中的一個重要里程碑——停止銷售單一產品的永久許可——還有兩個多月的時間。

We're targeting a 20% compound annual growth rate in subscriptions, and a 24% compound annual growth rate of ARR from the end of this fiscal year to the end of FY20. As we indicated, the model hinges on growth in subscriptions, so it's helpful to talk about what we expect to be the four primary drivers of subscriptions.

我們的目標是從本財年末到 2020 財年末，訂閱用戶年複合成長率達到 20%，年度經常性收入 (ARR) 年複合成長率達到 24%。正如我們所指出的，該模型依賴訂閱量的成長，因此有必要討論我們預期的訂閱量四大主要驅動因素。

First, starting in the third quarter of next year, virtually every license that we sell will be a subscription, as we end-of-sale all new perpetual licenses. As you may recall from our disclosures a few years ago, the typical run rate of licensed unit volume has ranged from 500,000 to nearly 800,000 per year. On top of typical run rate of licenses, we are seeing a multiplier, as customers move from perpetual to subscription. This multiplier ranges anywhere from a 10% to 30% up-lift in units. These tend to be companies that were previously sharing licenses among their users, and the subscription price point makes sense for them to purchase additional seats.

首先，從明年第三季開始，我們銷售的幾乎所有許可證都將是訂閱許可證，因為我們將停止銷售所有新的永久許可證。您可能還記得我們幾年前披露的信息，持牌單位的典型年銷量在 50 萬到近 80 萬台之間。除了正常的許可證銷售速度之外，我們還看到許可證銷售速度呈現倍增趨勢，因為客戶正從永久許可證轉向訂閱許可證。這個倍數可以帶來 10% 到 30% 的銷售提升。這些公司通常以前都是在用戶之間共享許可證，而訂閱價格對他們來說意味著購買額外的席位。

Second is converting a minimum of 30% of the 2.8 million users out there who are active but not on subscription. The third piece is capturing a larger share of casual pirates. Finally, the TAM expansion of cloud-based products and services, which brings in new users.

其次，要將 280 萬活躍但未訂閱用戶中的至少 30% 轉化為訂閱用戶。第三點是吸引更多非專業海盜玩家。最後，雲端產品和服務的TAM擴張帶來了新用戶。

The 20% subs CAGR will drive the 24% ARR CAGR. We also talked about a 3% CAGR in annualized revenue per subscription. That number is heavily influenced by the mix of subscriptions. LT and cloud subs have a lower ARPS relative to our other offerings, and will depress total ARPS, but are great for total ARR growth. I also want to be clear that these CAGRs anchor on the end of FY16, and we expect some bumpiness over the next three quarters as we end the sale of new perpetual licenses. This does not change our conviction in our assumptions or the end state of this transition one bit. In fact, the early proof points around subscription adoptions have been very encouraging.

20%的訂閱用戶複合年增長率將帶動24%的年度經常性收入複合年增長率。我們也討論了訂閱用戶年化收入3%的複合年增長率。這個數字很大程度上受到訂閱類型組合的影響。LT 和雲端訂閱相對於我們的其他產品而言 ARPS 較低，會拉低總 ARPS，但對總 ARR 成長非常有利。我還要明確指出，這些複合年增長率以 2016 財年末為基準，我們預計在接下來的三個季度中，隨著我們結束新永久許可證的銷售，會出現一些波動。這絲毫不會改變我們對自身假設或此次轉型最終狀態的信念。事實上，早期關於訂閱模式普及的種種跡像都非常令人鼓舞。

I alluded to this at the beginning of the call, and I'll reiterate here. Our business model transition will not be perfectly linear, and the amount of business that we will transition, the number of subscription additions, and the mix of subscription additions will fluctuate. The fourth quarter is always the biggest quarter of the year for us.

我在通話開始時就提到過這一點，我在這裡再重申一次。我們的商業模式轉型不會是完全線性的，我們將轉型的業務量、新增訂閱用戶數量以及新增訂閱用戶的組合都會出現波動。第四季一直是我們一年中最重要的季度。

Gauging the level of activity around customers buying the last perpetual licenses for individual products is particularly difficult to project. As such, we've taken a more conservative view and reduced our billings and subscriptions outlook for the remainder of the year. This is partially related to our Q3 results, and partially related to our revised Q4 outlook. We're also factoring in about a $10-million reduction in billings related to exiting the creative finishing hardware business.

預測客戶購買單一產品最後永久許可證的活動水平尤其困難。因此，我們採取了更保守的觀點，下調了今年剩餘時間的帳單和訂閱預期。這部分與我們第三季的業績有關，部分與我們修訂後的第四季展望有關。我們也考慮到退出創意後處理硬體業務將導致帳單減少約 1000 萬美元。

Global economic conditions remain uneven, with strong head winds continuing in most emerging markets. FX head winds remain persistent, but they haven't gotten much worse than the first three quarters of the year.

全球經濟情勢依然不平衡，大多數新興市場持續面臨強勁的逆風。FX逆風依然持續，但與今年前三個季度相比，情況並沒有惡化多少。

To wrap things up, we're really excited to being one step further along, and maintain our strong conviction in the model transition. We're heading down a path that will provide our customers with greater flexibility and a better user experience, while creating a more predictable, recurring, and profitable business for Autodesk in the years to come.

總而言之，我們非常高興能夠更進一步，並繼續堅定地支持模式轉型。我們正在走一條能夠為客戶帶來更大靈活性和更好用戶體驗的道路，同時在未來幾年為 Autodesk 創造更可預測、更永續、更盈利的業務。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Our first question is from Keith Weiss of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。您的線路已開通。

Hi, guys. Good afternoon. This is actually Stan Zlotsky sitting in for Keith. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to kick it off with the long-term model. You're saying that nothing has changed, but we're essentially taking down subscriber targets for this year, so we're lowering the starting point. Does that implicitly say that you are saying that the growth rate in subs will be unchanged, but the end point will be different?

嗨，大家好。午安.實際上，這是斯坦·茲洛茨基代替基思出場。感謝您回答我的問題。我想先從長期模型著手。你說一切都沒有改變，但我們實際上降低了今年的訂閱用戶目標，所以我們降低了起點。這是否意味著你的意思是訂閱用戶成長率不會改變，但最終結果會不同？

Hi, Stan. It's actually a really small amount we're taking it down, if you project it down over the year. This is just a timing adjustment from where we started.

嗨，史丹。實際上，如果我們按年計算，我們減少的幅度非常小。這只是對我們最初出發時間的一個調整。

The important thing to look at here is to remember that what we talk about here in those numbers is net subscriber adds. The number of subscriptions we added was in keeping with exactly what we wanted -- the net was different.

這裡要注意的是，我們在這裡討論的這些數字指的是淨新增用戶數。我們新增的訂閱用戶數量完全符合我們的預期—網路情況有所不同。

I expect there will be a bunch of questions. I'll go into this more deeply. But to answer your question directly, the net's down, and for a number of reasons. But in general we were right on track. That's why I gave the unit numbers about licenses, so you could gauge it. If you put this over the total days, the number really makes no difference in the model as you project it out any number of years.

我預計會有一系列問題。我會更深入地探討這個問題。但要直接回答你的問題，網路癱瘓了，原因有很多。但總的來說，我們的進展一切順利。所以我才提供了許可證的單位編號，以便你們可以進行估價。如果將此值乘以總天數，則無論預測到多少年，該數字對模型實際上都沒有影響。

Okay, fair enough. Then follow-up --

好吧，這說得有道理。然後跟進——

Remember, we're talking about tens of thousands versus millions.

記住，我們討論的是數萬與數百萬之間的差異。

Got it. Does that mean that you saw a slightly higher churn in the quarter than you were expecting? That's it from me. Thank you.

知道了。這是否意味著本季的客戶流失率略高於您的預期？我的內容就到這裡。謝謝。

Yes. I didn't even get to the next questioner before we got more questions about it, so we might as well just walk through it. The first thing is, let's just remember that the 80,000 is net adds. The unit volume was nearly twice that in terms of subscriptions.

是的。我還來不及回答下一個提問者的問題，就又有人問了相關問題，所以我們不如就一起討論一下吧。首先，我們要記住，這 80,000 是淨新增用戶數。就訂閱量而言，單位銷售量幾乎是其兩倍。

There are two things that go to it. One is a maintenance base that is now very big, approximately 2.1 million subscribers, and a renewal rate that's less than 100%. Any small change there, or any change in timing, or any change in buying behavior, even in a small amount, changes the reading at this moment in time when we measure it. The other thing is the attach rates are less than the renewal rate, as we've disclosed over the years. A little less influential, but it did come from a little bit from the tax rate and a little bit from churn in the maintenance base on the existing model.

這其中包含兩方面因素。一是維護基礎非常龐大，約有 210 萬用戶，但續約率低於 100%。任何微小的變化，或時間上的任何變化，或購買行為上的任何變化，即使是很小的變化，都會改變我們此刻測量時的讀數。另一方面，附加率低於續保率，正如我們多年來所揭露的那樣。影響稍小一些，但部分原因是稅率，部分原因是現有模式下維護基礎的變動。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝大家。

Let me just finish on the other part of it is, if you don't see the net of it, subscription adds were just where we anticipated they would be.

最後我想補充一點，如果你還沒看清全局，訂閱廣告的投放位置正如我們預期的那樣。

Thank you. Our next question is from Saket Kalia of Barclays. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的薩凱特·卡利亞。您的線路已開通。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions here. Might as well stay on the subscription line of questioning here, Carl. The reduction for the year, I guess that 310 to 330, versus the 375 to 425, maybe you can walk us through where the lion's share of that reduction is coming from. Is that coming from -- to your point that lower attach and renew rate than maybe you expected in the maintenance base, or is the new model base maybe a little bit less than what you expected as you wrap up the year?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。卡爾，我們不妨繼續沿著訂閱這條線索提問。我猜今年的減幅是從 310 減到 330，而不是從 375 減到 425，也許您可以給我們解釋一下，這大部分減幅來自哪裡。你說的「維修基地的附加和續約率低於預期」是指這個原因，還是說新機型的更新換代率低於你預期的水平？

It's about 50/50. At least this quarter it was. Once again, I try to highlight it in my remarks. I can tell you exactly what happened in Q3, and in that case it's 50/50.

大概五五開吧。至少本季是這樣。我再次在發言中強調這一點。我可以準確地告訴你第三季度發生了什麼，在這種情況下，可能性是五五開。

If you look going forward, because of the difficulty in projecting our customer behavior precisely about whether they'll choose to stock up on perpetual licenses or move to desktop subscription, it's a little bit harder to project. We just thought we'd be a little bit more cautious and conservative, particularly with the mix. I want to draw two pictures. We're more cautious about the net adds. We gave you the other facts and figures to show really that the unit volume is steady and that the demand is high. I don't want to confuse those two issues, but I can tell you Q3, really 50/50. Q4 and going to next year, a little bit harder to be precise about.

展望未來，由於很難準確預測客戶的行為，例如他們會選擇購買永久授權還是轉向桌面訂閱，因此預測起來會更加困難。我們只是覺得應該更謹慎保守一些，尤其是在原料配比方面。我想畫兩幅畫。我們對淨增人數更加謹慎。我們已經提供了其他事實和數據，以真正表明單位銷售穩定且需求旺盛。我不想混淆這兩個問題，但我可以告訴你，Q3，真的是五五開。第四季以及明年的情況，很難給出準確的預測。

Yes, Saket, if all you're trying to bridge is the mid-point of the previous guidance for the full year to the mid-point of the current guidance for the full year, what I'd tell you is a big chunk of that is where we see ourselves coming out of Q3. If you just add the numbers up this year, we've added about 236,000 net subs.

是的，Saket，如果你只是想把之前全年業績指引的中點和當前全年業績指引的中點聯繫起來，那麼我要告訴你的是，其中很大一部分取決於我們預計第三季度結束時的業績。如果把今年的數字加起來，我們淨增加了約 236,000 名訂閱用戶。

When you peel back how that compared to where we thought we'd be at this point, the bigger driver of the delta is what you said. It's on the maintenance side versus on the new model side. The new model growth has been good. We continue to see it looking strong, particularly year on year, but it continues to grow strongly sequentially, as well.

當你仔細分析我們目前所處的位置與我們預期的位置之間的差異時，就會發現造成這種差異的更大原因正如你所說。差別在於維護方面和新車型方面。新模式的成長情況良好。我們看到它繼續保持強勁勢頭，尤其是同比而言，而且環比增長也十分強勁。

When you look at Q4, I think what Carl said is spot on. What we're trying to do is take a somewhat conservative view of what we think the net adds will be. There's significant opportunity as we hit the first milestone, or the next milestone, in our business model transition, and end-of-sale perpetual licenses for individual products, and trying to gauge what that does in terms of driving additional demand relative to a very large maintenance base.

看看第四季度，我覺得卡爾說的很對。我們試圖對淨新增人數採取較為保守的看法。隨著我們在業務模式轉型中達到第一個里程碑或下一個里程碑，以及單一產品的永久銷售許可證終止，我們面臨著巨大的機遇，我們將嘗試評估這在推動相對於龐大的維護基礎的額外需求方面會產生什麼影響。

If you go back several years, Q4 has always been our biggest quarter for perpetual license sales, which means it's also our biggest quarter for renewals. There's an enormous maintenance renewal amount that gets done during the quarter. It's balancing those two off that's what led us to where we are.

如果回顧過去幾年，第四季一直是我們永久許可證銷售額最高的季度，這意味著它也是我們續費額最高的季度。本季需要完成大量的維護更新工作。正是這兩者之間的平衡，才使我們走到今天這一步。

Got it. Then the follow-up, maybe if we shift over to the creative finishing part of the business. Carl, I think you said roughly a $10-million impact, I think in the fourth quarter on billings. Is it fair to think about that as maybe a $40-million-a-year revenue run rate? What's the gross margin on that, that you're now going to be off-loading?

知道了。接下來，或許我們可以轉向業務的創意後製部分。卡爾，我想你說過，第四季的帳單金額大約會受到 1000 萬美元的影響。將其視為每年 4000 萬美元的收入水平是否合理？你現在要出售的這批貨物的毛利率是多少？

Yes, Saket, that's right. To be clear, what we did in creative finishing, to this point we sold that product on hardware. It's software license, then we built it -- we actually packaged it on the hardware, and shipped it out. What we did in Q4, or at the end of Q3, is based on, really, feedback from partners and customers that wanted the flexibility to use their own hardware, is converted creative finishing software to a software-only offering.

是的，薩凱特，沒錯。需要說明的是，到目前為止，我們在創意加工方面所做的工作，都是透過硬體銷售的。這是軟體許可，然後我們把它開發出來——實際上，我們把它打包到硬體上，然後發貨了。我們在第四季度或第三季度末所做的工作，實際上是基於合作夥伴和客戶的反饋，他們希望能夠靈活地使用自己的硬件，因此我們將創意後期製作軟體轉換為純軟體產品。

What that pulled out of our revenue stream is the hardware that was effectively a pass-through. We bought it, packaged the software on, and passed it through. As you would imagine, it's a pretty low margin business.

這使得我們從收入來源中抽走的，實際上是原本用來轉嫁的硬體。我們買下了它，把軟體打包好，然後交付出去。正如你所料，這是一個利潤很低的行業。

Now Q4 is the biggest quarter for that, as well. I wouldn't take the $10 million we see the impact in Q4 of this year and just multiply it by four. But it's somewhere between $25 million to $40 million, is what would come out. Low-margin business, but all hardware only mark-up.

現在第四季也是這方面最大的季度。我不會把今年第四季我們看到的 1000 萬美元的影響簡單地乘以四。但最終的金額應該在2500萬美元到4000萬美元之間。利潤率低，但所有硬體只加價。

Very helpful. That's it from me. Thanks.

很有幫助。我的內容就到這裡。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question is from Heather Bellini of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自高盛的希瑟貝利尼。您的線路已開通。

Hi, this is [Shateel Alam] in for Heather Bellini. Just one question on maintenance and what you're seeing there. You added 33,000 maintenance subscribers, but ARR stayed flat. Is that what you were expecting? Could you comment on the attach rate you're seeing on maintenance versus prior quarters? For next quarter with license ending, are you expecting a strong maintenance ARR up-tick while this is the last chance to buy stand-alone licenses?

大家好，我是[Shateel Alam]，取代Heather Bellini。關於維修方面，我只有一個問題，您那邊的狀況是怎麼樣的？你們新增了 33,000 名維護訂閱用戶，但 ARR 保持不變。這就是你所期待的嗎？您能否就您觀察到的維護附加率與前幾季相比的情況發表一下看法？鑑於下一季許可證即將到期，您是否預期維護 ARR 會大幅成長？因為這是購買獨立許可證的最後機會。

You asked a lot of questions, Shateel. Let me jump in, and if I miss one remind me. The first question of 33,000 net new maintenance adds for the quarter but billings being effectively flat sequentially, I think the thing you've got to bear in mind is that 33,000 on a base of about 2.1 million. The overall growth -- the growth of the overall base, which of course is what drives that, is not nearly as big at the 33,000 would sound.

沙提爾，你問了很多問題。讓我插一句，如果我漏掉了什麼，請提醒我。第一個問題是，本季新增淨維護量為 33,000，但帳單金額較上季基本持平。我認為你需要記住的是，這 33,000 是在約 210 萬的基數上實現的。整體成長——也就是整體基數的成長，這當然是推動成長的因素——遠沒有 33,000 這個數字聽起來那麼大。

On the attach rates, what we are seeing though is we continue to see attach rates growing. Now, not -- it still is below the overall renewal rate for maintenance, but the attach rate's growing. It's growing on LT, which is still a step function below the other products; but it's growing on the other products, as well. Renewals continue to be strong through the quarter, so we're not seeing any significant change there.

關於附加率，我們看到的是附加率持續成長。現在情況並非如此——雖然仍然低於維護的總體續約率，但附加率正在增長。它在 LT 的基礎上有所增長，但 LT 仍然比其他產品低一個階躍函數；不過，它在其他產品的基礎上也有所增長。本季續約情況依然強勁，因此我們沒有看到這方面有任何重大變化。

Then for 4Q are you expecting an up-tick in maintenance ARR?

那麼，您預計第四季度維護性年度經常性收入 (ARR) 會上升嗎？

Yes, the hard part about calling that is calling the number of customers during Q4 that actually take advantage of the last chance to buy perpetual license. To the extent that's a big number, that a lot of people look at this and say hey, I want to buy my perpetual license while I can, with the attach rates we're having, that will drive a significant up-tick in maintenance ARR. To the extent that we continue to see -- what we're beginning to see is a lot of customers saying okay, now I've gotten comfortable with desktop subscription. We see it growing at substantial rates year on year, but growing sequentially as well. To the extent that more people say I'm ready for -- ready to make that shift, that would again drive desktop subscriptions, but only when they actually need it. There's no end of sale on desktop subs.

是的，最困難的部分在於確定第四季度有多少客戶會抓住最後的機會購買永久許可證。如果這是一個很大的數字，很多人看到這個數字後會說，嘿，我想趁現在還能買到永久許可證的時候趕緊買，考慮到我們目前的附加率，這將大幅提高維護 ARR。就我們目前所看到的——我們開始看到的是，很多客戶表示，好吧，現在我已經習慣了桌面訂閱。我們看到它不僅逐年快速增長，而且環比也在增長。如果更多人表示他們已經準備好——準備好做出這種轉變，那麼這將再次推動桌面訂閱，但前提是他們真的需要它。桌面版訂閱服務永不停止促銷。

Better news for us long term, the more people that accept the shift over to desktop subs, but there's no compelling event in Q4 for that set of customers. It's really trying to predict the mix of people that want to take advantage, versus the mix of people who say not ready to make the shift.

從長遠來看，這對我們來說是個好消息，越多的人接受向桌面訂閱模式的轉變，但第四季度對於這部分客戶來說並沒有什麼引人注目的事件。它實際上是在試圖預測想要利用這種機會的人群比例，以及表示還沒有準備好做出改變的人群比例。

Got it, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question is from Matt Hedberg of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬特‧赫德伯格。您的線路已開通。

Hi, it's Dan Bergstrom for Matt Hedberg. Could you talk a little bit about bringing the e-store in-house? What is -- how does that enable you to increase the volume of the business you do online? Thanks.

大家好，我是馬特·赫德伯格的丹·伯格斯特羅姆。您能否談談將網路商店收歸公司內部營運的情況？什麼是—它如何幫助您增加線上業務量？謝謝。

Yes, I think there are two different dynamics going on. I think customers, particularly small customers, are choosing to buy more and more online as they get more comfortable with it. The factor that we get to influence is the experience. Outsourcing it has its limitations in terms of the experience you're giving customers in buying and maintaining their things online. We felt like we had grown that business to a point where we needed to control it ourselves. Second important thing about it is we felt like we were paying too much money for the service to do that. We wanted to bring it in so we could lower the cost of the transactions and improve the experience.

是的，我認為這裡有兩種不同的動態。我認為，隨著消費者越來越習慣網路購物，尤其是小消費者，會選擇越來越多在網路上購物。我們能夠影響的因素是體驗。外包在為客戶提供線上購買和維護商品的體驗方面存在局限性。我們覺得我們已經把這項業務發展到了需要自己掌控的地步。其次，我們覺得為這項服務支付了過高的費用。我們引進這項技術是為了降低交易成本，改善使用者體驗。

Thank you. Our next question is from Sterling Auty of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。您的線路已開通。

Yes, thanks. Carl, you had an activist investor actually file recently. I'm curious if you had any conversations with them, and what's going to be your approach? Will you be open to discussions and to suggestions they might have to improve shareholder value?

好的，謝謝。卡爾，你最近確實有一位激進投資者提起了訴訟。我很想知道你是否和他們進行過任何對話，以及你打算採取什麼方法？您是否願意與他們討論並接受他們提出的任何提高股東價值的建議？

Yes. I probably found out about the filing the same way you did. I happened to be in Japan at the time. Somebody sent me a news article. When I saw that, part of the filing was that Sacham -- I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing it correctly -- Sachem Head had filed. I reached out. I spoke with Scott. We didn't say anything of substance, but we agreed to get together, just as I've done with many investors. We continue to be open to talk to all of our investors, whether they file or not.

是的。我可能和你一樣，也是用同樣的方式得知這件事的。我當時正好在日本。有人寄給我一篇新聞報。當我看到那份文件時，其中一部分內容是薩查姆——我不確定我的發音是否正確——薩切姆·海德已經提交了文件。我聯繫了對方。我和史考特談過了。我們沒有談任何實質內容，但我們同意見面，就像我和許多投資者所做的那樣。我們始終願意與所有投資者溝通，無論他們是否提交破產申請。

Got it. Then Scott, I hate to do this to you, but back to maintenance. I guess I wasn't clear. It sounded like you said that attach rates are continuing to improve and renewal rates are steady. But I thought in an earlier comment that when we look at the change in the net subscription expectations for the year, that the maintenance was definitely 50% of the component. I guess I'm still missing which component is coming in less than what you expected. Is it the churn or is it the attach?

知道了。史考特，我很不想這樣對你，但還是回去維護工作吧。我可能沒表達清楚。聽起來你好像是說附加率持續提高，續保率維持穩定。但我之前評論過，當我們查看今年的淨訂閱預期變化時，維護費用肯定佔了其中的 50%。我猜我還是沒搞清楚是哪個零件的到貨量低於你的預期。是人員流動還是依附關係？

No, it's actually neither. In order to attach a maintenance agreement you need a new licensed sale. When we looked at new licensed sales for the year, this year as we were laying out the plan, it's a little bit like doing a channel check, where you look at a small sample size and try and extrapolate to the rest of the world.

不，其實兩者都不是。要附加維護協議，您需要新的銷售許可證。今年我們在製定計劃時，查看了新的授權銷售情況，這有點像進行渠道檢查，即查看一個小樣本量，然後嘗試推斷到世界其他地方。

What we had based that -- what our expectations on the end of sale of perpetual, and what that would do in terms of driving new license sales, is we based it on some of the tests that we had done, and we based it on the experience we had with the end-of-sale of upgrades. What we've seen is attach rates continue to be strong and strengthening, and renewal rates have stayed strong for maintenance. But the number of people who are buying that last perpetual license are less than we expected when we set out the plan for the year.

我們之所以這樣認為——我們對永久許可停止銷售的預期，以及這將對推動新許可證銷售產生的影響，是基於我們所做的一些測試，以及我們之前在升級停止銷售方面的經驗。我們看到，附加率持續強勁成長，而維護續保率也保持強勁。但是，購買最後一張永久許可證的人數比我們制定年度計劃時預期的要少。

That makes sense. Maybe just to put a finer point on that, do you think that's macro, or do you think it's still understanding the model transition, or some other factor?

這很有道理。為了更精確地說明這一點，您認為這是宏觀層面的問題，還是仍在理解模式轉變的問題，或其他因素？

I think there's two things going on. I think macro is relatively steady. We have not seen a dramatic change. I know this will come up, so we might as well just cover it now. The Americas, US in particular, continues to be relatively strong, as does central and northern Europe. We see weakness in Brazil and Russia and the Middle East. China, I actually feel is slightly stronger than I think generally people are giving it credit for. Japan is weaker than I think anybody would want. I think that's the round-up of what the macro looks like.

我認為有兩個原因。我認為宏觀經濟相對穩定。我們沒有看到顯著的變化。我知道這個問題遲早會談到，所以我們不妨現在就把它講清楚。美洲，尤其是美國，依然保持相對強勁的勢頭，中歐和北歐也是如此。我們看到巴西、俄羅斯和中東地區經濟疲軟。我個人感覺，中國的實力其實比人們普遍認為的要強一些。日本的實力比任何人預想的都要弱。我想這就是這個宏的大致內容了。

In general, I think macro is not a huge factor. It's neither particularly positive, nor particularly negative. FX continues to be negative, as it is for everybody. It really looks like it might continue for a while. But that's the round-up of what I would see about macro.

總的來說，我認為宏觀經濟並不是一個很大的影響因素。它既不算特別積極，也不算特別消極。FX市場持續走低，對所有人來說都是如此。看來這種情況可能會持續一段時間。以上就是我對宏觀經濟方面所看到的總結。

I don't think the competitive situation has changed very much in the mainstream businesses. There's different dynamics in some of our cloud businesses. We're kind of leading the way, but other than that, not a huge amount of change.

我認為主流產業的競爭格局並沒有太大變化。我們的一些雲端業務存在不同的動態。我們算是走在前列，但除此之外，並沒有太大的變化。

Okay, thank you guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thank you. Our next question's from Brent Thill of UBS. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫特·蒂爾。您的線路已開通。

Hi, Carl. On the channel, many of the channel partners we speak with, it seems like there's a divergence. The larger ones get it. They want to be on board. They understand the power of it. The smaller ones are still struggling, which you would expect, given this. Do you feel like you've got the channel guys now really ready to go, or they're on board? Can you give us a sense of how that education process is going at a high level?

嗨，卡爾。在通路方面，我們與許多通路合作夥伴進行了交流，似乎存在分歧。個頭大的就能得到。他們想加入。他們明白它的力量。規模較小的企業仍在苦苦掙扎，考慮到這種情況，這也在意料之中。你覺得頻道團隊現在真的準備好了嗎？或者說他們都同意了嗎？您能否大致介紹一下該教育過程的整體進展？

A follow-up, too, is on the deal you mentioned, nice to see a 20-year competitive switch. Are you -- what drove that in terms of their decision making? Do you see other deals like that in the queue that are ready because of either an architectural limitation or -- just give us a little more color would be helpful?

另外，關於您提到的那筆交易，很高興看到長達 20 年的競爭格局發生了轉變。你認為──是什麼因素促使他們做出這樣的決定？您看到還有其他類似的交易因為架構限製或其他原因而準備就緒嗎？ ——請提供更多信息，這將很有幫助？

Okay. First channel partners, and then the switch. If you look at channel partners, let's back up for a second and maybe have a little discourse on channel partners and checking with channel partners. The first thing, just to remind everybody, is if you look at it broadly, 30% of our business, 20% to 30%, is the very top tier, less than 0.1% of our customers. At the so-called bottom of the pyramid, people going through lower-cost channels like the e-store, that's 20% to 30% of business.

好的。先是通路合作夥伴，然後是切換。如果談到通路夥伴，我們不妨先回顧一下通路夥伴以及如何與通路夥伴溝通。首先要提醒大家的是，從廣義上講，我們 30% 的業務，也就是 20% 到 30% 的業務，都屬於最頂尖的級別，只占我們客戶總數的不到 0.1%。在所謂的金字塔底層，也就是透過電商等低成本管道購物的人群中，有 20% 到 30% 的顧客。

When you get to the middle part of our business, that is our traditional good partners, one of the things also is that business is geographically aligned like the rest of our revenue, with about 25% in the US, and 75% outside. It's one of the reasons, on an aside, why often the channel checks don't correlate as well.

當我們談到我們業務的中部，也就是我們傳統的良好合作夥伴時，其中一個特點是，這項業務的地理分佈與我們其他收入來源一樣，約 25% 在美國，75% 在國外。順便一提，這也是為什麼頻道檢查結果往往不太吻合的原因之一。

If you're only starting with 40% of the business, or 50% of the business, and you talk to a sampling of 25%, you're sampling 12.5% of the people that you would like to. Overall, we have more than 2,000 channel partners. Use that as a backdrop to this.

如果你只從公司 40% 或 50% 的業務開始，然後你與其中 25% 的樣本進行交談，那麼你只接觸到了你想接觸的人群的 12.5%。整體而言，我們擁有超過 2000 家通路合作夥伴。以此作為背景。

I would totally agree with what you're saying, Brent. I think the larger partners understand the transition better, have moved more quickly, have prepared their business as you would expect, but I wouldn't say it's uniform. There are also smaller partners, who are some of our best partners, who have understood this, who have always had really healthy businesses that provide great services. But if I look by and large, I think your characterization is correct.

布倫特，我完全同意你的說法。我認為規模較大的合夥人更了解這種轉變，行動也更迅速，也按照預期做好了業務準備，但我不會說他們的做法是統一的。還有一些規模較小的合作夥伴，他們是我們最好的合作夥伴，他們理解這一點，他們的業務一直非常健康，並提供優質的服務。但總的來說，我認為你的描述是正確的。

If you look at it from the business point of view, we gave you all kinds of metrics during my remarks about why the channel partners are selling it. If anything, I would say our channel partners, the traditional channel partners, are more enthusiastic than desktop subscription than we originally planned.

從商業角度來看，我在發言中已經列舉了各種指標，解釋了通路夥伴銷售該產品的原因。如果有什麼變化的話，那就是我們的通路合作夥伴，也就是傳統的通路合作夥伴，對桌面訂閱的熱情比我們最初計劃的要高。

We knew from the beginning that this is a tough transition for cash flow sensitive businesses. We've tried to do our best to ease it. We gave plenty of warning. When others were urging us to make the transition happen faster, we thought this was the prudent thing to do -- not only getting a Company with our kind of balance sheet through it, but most importantly getting those 2,000 channel partners through it.

我們從一開始就知道，對於現金流敏感型企業來說，這是一個艱難的轉型期。我們已盡力緩解這種情況。我們已發出充分的警告。當其他人敦促我們加快轉型步伐時，我們認為這是明智之舉——不僅要讓像我們這樣資產負債表的公司完成轉型，更重要的是要讓那 2000 個通路合作夥伴完成轉型。

Having said that, I don't think every channel partner will make it through in an identical form. There will probably be some consolidation out there. There will be some change in business, slightly more than the natural churn that we see there. But I would just generally say channel partners get it. They've gotten on.

話雖如此，我認為並非所有通路夥伴都能以完全相同的形式挺過難關。市場可能會出現一些整合。商業領域將會出現一些變化，比我們通常看到的自然人員更迭要多一些。但我總的來說認為通路夥伴都能理解。他們相處得很好。

It reminds me a little bit when we first brought out subscription, and as I listen to the names who have asked questions so far, many of you were there when we did that. Our channel partners thought subscription, if you had listened to them in the moment, was the end of their business. I think almost everyone you ask today they would say it is the best part of their business. I think in the same way we have been very considerate and deliberate in how we move not only our business, but an important part of moving their business, as well.

這讓我想起了我們剛推出訂閱服務的時候，聽著目前為止提問的人的名字，你們當中很多人當時都在場。我們的通路夥伴認為，如果你當時聽信了他們的建議，訂閱就意味著他們生意的終結。我想你今天問的幾乎每個人，他們都會說這是他們業務中最好的部分。我認為，我們一直以來都非常謹慎地推動我們自身的業務發展，而且在推進他們業務發展的重要方面也是如此。

The second thing was, yes, it was really gratifying. This was a very prestigious firm. What has happened around the world, where we have -- we have a strong market position in architecture, engineering, and construction software. But people don't realize there are many competitive products. There are strong local products. There are many reasons why people choose other things. We have been working on the periphery with this firm for a while. The thing that put them over the edge is really how prevalent building information modeling, and particularly as Revit is the tool of choice is for building information modeling.

第二件事是，是的，這真的很令人欣慰。這是一家非常有聲望的公司。世界各地都發生了這樣的變化，我們在建築、工程和施工軟體領域擁有強大的市場地位。但人們並沒有意識到市面上有很多同類產品。當地有很多優質產品。人們選擇其他事物的原因有很多。我們與這家公司一直保持著密切的合作關係。真正促使他們下定決心的是建築資訊模型的普及程度，尤其是 Revit 作為建築資訊模型的首選工具。

Let me just digress for a second. People don't realize this about our business sometimes, but while we are in a very complex technology business, technology adoption doesn't happen overnight. For those who may have forgotten, we bought Revit back in 2002, I believe. We're 14 years later, and we still think there's lots of market penetration. If you were to look at a graph of the revenue, the first five years would not have impressed you. It's really gratifying to see how long this is, and that at this point in time we are winning the business of some of the best and most creative firms in the world.

讓我先岔開一下話題。人們有時並不了解我們產業的這一點，雖然我們身處在一個非常複雜的科技產業，但科技的採用並非一朝一夕就能完成。或許有些人已經忘記了，我記得我們是在 2002 年買的 Revit。14 年過去了，我們仍然認為市場滲透率還有很大的提升空間。如果你看一下營收圖表，前五年的業績可能不會讓你印象深刻。看到這個項目持續了這麼久，並且在這個階段我們能夠贏得世界上一些最優秀、最有創意的公司的業務，真的令人欣慰。

I expect that trend to continue. As you've seen, it's not only in the architectural space but in the construction space. We continue to gain market share. We think it's an important part of what we're doing investing in our cloud-based businesses, where really the future of this industry is.

我預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。正如你所看到的，它不僅存在於建築領域，也存在於施工領域。我們持續擴大市場佔有率。我們認為，投資雲端運算業務是其中非常重要的一部分，因為雲端運算才是這個產業的未來。

Thanks, Carl.

謝謝你，卡爾。

You're welcome, Brent.

不客氣，布倫特。

Thank you. Our next question is from Philip Winslow of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的菲利普‧溫斯洛。您的線路已開通。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Carl, I know you touched from a geographic perspective on macro. But when you look at the industry verticals that you guys service, commercial, construction, civil, different parts of manufacturing, obviously the media side, but when you look by vertical, is there any sort of tone change across those vertical industries? Who hasn't changed? Who maybe is changing, and how you're contemplating that or thinking about this over the next few quarters here, what you're keeping your eyes on?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。卡爾，我知道你從地理角度談到了宏觀問題。但是，當我們審視你們所服務的行業垂直領域，例如商業、建築、土木工程、製造業的不同領域，當然還有媒體行業，當我們按垂直領域來審視時，這些垂直行業之間是否存在某種語氣變化？誰沒變？哪些人可能會改變？在接下來的幾個季度裡，您是如何思考或考慮這個問題的？您重點關注哪些方面？

It's surprising little change in the business environment around those. I don't see dramatic changes. I think there's a lot of ticking and complaining about interest rates, even though I think it's fully baked into the market for the most part; people doing things like development projects or capital improvements in manufacturing have figured this in for a while. Maybe it's gotten slightly more certain.

令人驚訝的是，這些地區的商業環境幾乎沒有改變。我沒看到什麼劇烈的變化。我認為人們對利率有很多抱怨和擔憂，儘管我認為利率在很大程度上已經完全融入了市場；從事開發項目或製造業資本改進等活動的人早就考慮到了這一點。或許情況稍微明朗了一些。

Surprisingly in our end markets, we're not seeing huge amounts of change either geographically or by industry. It's steady as she goes. Certainly sitting here in San Francisco, I have a little bit of concern about bubble valuations in down-round IPOs. But that may be a much more local phenomenon. I wouldn't extrapolate from there, that feels to me like a bad channel check.

出乎意料的是，在我們的終端市場中，無論是地理上還是產業上，我們都沒有看到巨大的變化。她走得很穩。當然，身處舊金山的我，對IPO融資輪次下調中的估值泡沫確實有些擔憂。但這可能只是一種局部現象。我不會以此為依據進行推斷，我覺得那像是頻道檢查出了問題。

I would say business is pretty steady as she goes. We're monitoring it. I think the other indicator for me was the demand that we talked about in the total unit volume indicates to me the same thing. So no big change. Scott?

我認為她的生意一直都很穩定。我們正在密切關注。我認為另一個指標是我們之前討論過的總單位銷售所反映的需求，它也顯示了同樣的事情。所以沒什麼大變化。史考特？

Yes, Phil, I was going to say the same thing. When you look at the underlying demand, in other words the units that we sold during the quarter, it's right in line with what our expectations were and where it's been historically Then if you slice it the other way, by industry vertical, and I think we've got this -- I'm sure we've got this in the prepared remarks. The revenue growth rates in AEC were around 4%, but in manufacturing it was the same, about 3% to 4%. We're not really seeing any bifurcation by vertical at this point.

是的，菲爾，我正想說同樣的話。換句話說，從潛在需求來看，也就是我們本季售出的單位數量，它與我們的預期以及歷史水準完全一致。然後，如果你反過來，按行業垂直領域來劃分，我認為我們已經掌握了這一點——我相信我們在準備好的發言稿中已經闡述了這一點。AEC產業的營收成長率約為4%，而製造業的營收成長率也約為3%至4%。目前我們還沒有看到任何垂直方向的分化。

Got it. Then actually just a quick follow-up for Scott. Carl mentioned, as he did back at the analyst day a couple years ago, the 500,000 to 800,000 licensed units. I was wondering if you could give us a sense for what last year was, or maybe this past couple years if you have that, so we can get a sense for -- because that 500,000 to 800,000 range is pretty wide, what the most recent cadence was like?

知道了。那麼，我再簡單問一下斯科特的問題。卡爾提到了50萬至80萬個授權單位，就像幾年前在分析家日上他提到的。我想請您介紹一下去年的情況，或者如果您有的話，也請介紹一下過去幾年的情況，這樣我們就可以了解一下——因為 50 萬到 80 萬的範圍相當寬泛，最近的節奏是怎樣的？

Sure. Last year would have been toward the higher end of that, because we had a very successful upgrade set of sales last year. It's a bit of an anomaly. It definitely would have been at the high end of that range. I'd say if you go back before that, and really before we in earnest got into the business model transition, it was right around the mid-point of that range, between $500,000 and $800,000, and that's what we're seeing again this year -- in terms of net demand. In other words, net sales end of the market, right about the mid-point.

當然。去年的銷售額應該會更高一些，因為我們去年的升級換代銷售非常成功。這有點反常。肯定屬於那個範圍的高端。我想說，如果你回顧之前，也就是在我們真正開始商業模式轉型之前，當時的淨需求量大約在 50 萬美元到 80 萬美元之間，而今年我們再次看到的淨需求量也正是如此。換句話說，淨銷售額處於市場末端，大約在中間位置。

Got it. Thanks, guys.

知道了。謝謝各位。

Thanks, Philip.

謝謝你，菲利普。

Thank you. Our next question is from Gregg Moskowitz from Cowen and Company. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Gregg Moskowitz。您的線路已開通。

Thank you very much. Carl, wondering if you could just give us a little color on the sort of activity meaning perpetual and subscription that you saw this quarter in Asia-Pac, ex-Japan, and ANZ? How did that change as the quarter progressed and as the deadline for buying perpetual license approached?

非常感謝。卡爾，我想請你簡要介紹一下本季度你在亞太地區（除日本外）和澳新地區看到的永久產權和訂閱業務活動情況？隨著季度推進和永久許可證購買截止日期的臨近，情況發生了怎樣的變化？

Yes, Gregg, we saw what you'd expect to see. To be clear, we didn't end of sale all perpetual licenses in APAC this quarter, ex-Japan. It was only LT, only the low end, so very similar to what we had done in Australia, New Zealand, in the prior quarter. We saw the same thing you would expect. We saw an increase in the volume of LT sales as we approached that end of sale. It was right in line with our expectations.

是的，格雷格，我們看到了你所預料的景象。需要澄清的是，本季我們並沒有停止在亞太地區（日本除外）銷售所有永久許可證。只是低端產品，也就是LT，與我們上一季在澳洲和紐西蘭所做的事情非常相似。我們看到的情況和你們預想的一樣。隨著銷售季的臨近尾聲，我們發現LT的銷量增加。這完全符合我們的預期。

The one thing I'd say we're seeing with these end of sales is they are definitely more back-end loaded in the quarter than our traditional run rate. It makes a little bit more challenging in forecasting.

我想說的是，我們從這些銷售末期數據中看到的一點是，它們的銷售高峰明顯集中在季度末，而不是像我們以往那樣集中在季度末。這使得預測更具挑戰性。

I used to talk about or almost brag about, you could look at the first three weeks and it was a statistical phenomenon to predict week 13. These promotions -- and I expect them to continue through the next three quarters, and possibly four -- are just a little bit harder because we really are creating these events. It's just human nature not to act until the last moment.

我以前經常談論，或者幾乎是吹噓，你可以看看前三週的數據，預測第 13 週的結果是一種統計現象。這些促銷活動——我預計它們將持續到接下來的三個季度，甚至可能四個季度——之所以會比較困難，是因為這些活動確實是我們自己策劃的。不到最後一刻不採取行動，這是人之常情。

Okay, that makes sense. Just for Scott, Carl made a comment that you're looking to ratchet down expenses as you move through the transition, exiting the hardware business for creative finishing being an example of that. Are you still expecting a spending increase of 5% to 6% per year going forward, or has your view on that changed to some degree? Thanks.

嗯，這說得通。卡爾對史考特說，你正在努力減少開支，以逐步過渡，退出五金業轉行從事創意加工就是一個例子。您是否仍預期未來每年的支出成長率為 5% 至 6%，還是您對此的看法有所改變？謝謝。

Yes, Gregg. I'll start and then actually let Carl jump in on this, too. If you look at the quarter we just announced, the total spend growth was 1% if you looked at just OpEx, because COGS is obviously going up as we build out the cloud infrastructure. If you just narrowed in from total spend to OpEx, the quarter we just announced was flat in OpEx year on year.

是的，格雷格。我先開始，然後也讓卡爾參與進來。如果你看一下我們剛剛公佈的季度財報，如果只看營運支出，總支出增加了 1%，因為隨著我們建立雲端基礎設施，銷售成本顯然會增加。如果只從總支出縮小到營運支出，我們剛剛公佈的季度營運支出與去年同期持平。

If you look at the guidance we've given for Q4, and back into the spend growth that would equate to, it's in that same 1% to 2% range in Q4. We are -- we have really put a lot of focus into effectively managing down spend, and becoming more efficient across the board. Carl, you want to --?

如果你看我們對第四季的業績指引，再推算出相應的支出成長，你會發現第四季的支出成長也同樣在 1% 到 2% 的範圍內。我們確實投入了大量精力來有效控制支出，並全面提高效率。卡爾，你想──？

Yes, I'd say two things. One is the plan is to continue to ratchet it down going into next year. There's a little bit of the effect of currency, but on a constant-currency basis, I'd say it would be coming down into the range we mentioned.

是的，我想說兩點。其中一項計劃是繼續逐步降低規模，直至明年。匯率會有一定影響，但以固定匯率計算，我認為它會下降到我們提到的範圍內。

The other thing was it was definitely a change, and certainly a change from Investor Day. Truthfully, we've been speaking a lot over the last six months with many of our long-term constructive investors. They totally understand and certainly believe in the model transition and the strength of the franchise, but there was definitely a hankering for greater cost control. We listened carefully. We saw -- we put plans into place earlier. We did something in Q3, doing the same kind of thing in Q4. Some things take a little longer to put in play. It's a combination of ongoing operating expenses and structural things like we did with the e-store, which again ironically, sometimes take an investment in order to do that.

另一點是，這確實是一個變化，而且與投資者日相比，變化非常明顯。說實話，在過去的六個月裡，我們與許多長期支持我們的建設性投資者進行了大量的交流。他們完全理解並堅信這種模式轉型和特許經營的優勢，但他們確實渴望更好地控製成本。我們認真傾聽。我們看到了——我們之前就制定了計劃。我們在第三季做了一些事情，第四季也做了同樣的事情。有些事情需要更長時間才能落實。這既包括持續的營運費用，也包括像我們開設網路商店這樣的結構性事項，而諷刺的是，有時候為了做到這一點，反而需要投資。

That one in particular is an investment in our IT infrastructure to do it. In the long run it pans out, but some of the fluctuation you see in costs are due to things like that, that have a benefit over a longer time horizon. But we're continuing to make some of those changes.

具體來說，那是一項用於我們IT基礎設施的投資。從長遠來看，這是有利的，但你看到的一些成本波動是由於諸如此類的事情造成的，這些事情在較長的時間範圍內是有好處的。但我們正在繼續進行其中一些改變。

Let's just back up on the expense question a little bit to look at -- there are really two things that we're doing in parallel right now. In each of those cases we're running dual models. On the business model, we really have business systems from front to back end that are for the old traditional model. We have been building out a complete set of front end and back end to service new customers in new ways.

讓我們稍微回顧一下費用問題——目前我們同時在做兩件事。在所有這些案例中，我們都運行了雙模型。在商業模式方面，我們從前端到後端都有適用於傳統模式的業務系統。我們一直在建立一套完整的前端和後端系統，以便以新的方式為新客戶提供服務。

On the technology side, while most of our revenue is on traditional Windows-based machines with installed software, by far the fastest growing and certainly the future of the Company is on cloud computing. We've been building out not only infrastructure, but products and services for that, and we strongly believe in the future there.

在科技方面，雖然我們的大部分收入來自安裝了軟體的傳統 Windows 機器，但迄今為止成長最快的，也是公司未來的發展方向，是雲端運算。我們不僅一直在建設基礎設施，還在建造相關的產品和服務，我們堅信這方面的未來前景廣闊。

The reason why we have confidence to not only do it during the transition but beyond is that some of those costs will, obviously, go away. They are necessary now, but they become redundant over time. We took strong action to do it, and we'll be doing more and talking about it more. But for now that's probably enough.

我們之所以有信心不僅在過渡期間而且在過渡之後做到這一點，是因為其中一些成本顯然會消失。現在它們很必要，但隨著時間的推移會變得多餘。我們採取了強有力的行動，而且我們將採取更多行動，並就此進行更多討論。但就目前而言，這或許就夠了。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you. Our next question is from Brendan Barnicle of Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自太平洋證券公司的布倫丹·巴尼克爾。您的線路已開通。

Thanks so much. Carl, you know you should never let us know you're not going to tell us enough. I have to ask more about this expense piece. I was still modeling, I think a lot of people were still, that 5% that you guys had been talking about. As we think about more of a 1% to 2%, where should we be looking for that leverage to come from?

非常感謝。卡爾，你知道你永遠不應該讓我們知道你不會告訴我們足夠的資訊。我需要進一步了解這筆費用。我當時還在做模特，我想很多人也還在做，就是你們一直說的那 5% 的人。當我們考慮將槓桿作用提高到 1% 到 2% 時，我們應該從哪裡尋找這種槓桿作用？

As we talked about before, we think there are couple areas. In general, I would look across the board, and I would look at -- but if you peel that back, what you would see is some of the investments we made -- the e-store is like a perfect example of where, those were expenses that were in there. Now that we're rolling it out, we will see the benefit of it in lower cost structure for people who transact that way.

正如我們之前討論過的，我們認為存在幾個面向。總的來說，我會全面審視，我會仔細查看——但如果你深入分析，你會發現我們進行的一些投資——網上商店就是一個很好的例子，說明其中就包含這些支出。現在我們正在推廣這項服務，我們將看到它為以這種方式進行交易的人們帶來更低的成本結構。

We've done it in North America. We will continue to do it in other geos over time and lower the cost structure there. As these places where we made investments for the health of the future of the business come to fruition, we'll start doing it.

我們在北美已經做到了。我們將繼續在其他地區推行這項舉措，並逐步降低當地的成本結構。隨著我們為公司未來健康發展而進行的投資項目逐步取得成果，我們將開始實施。

In some ways looking at it by function -- I know that's the convenient way for you, it is easier. In some ways it's chunkier, because a lot of it is around initiatives, whether it's the creative finishing hardware, what we're doing there. But the bulk of it will come from redundant stuff we're doing as we're able to move more activity to the new models in both the business transition and the technology transition, and invest less in the traditional things. That's all I have to say on the subject, Brendan. You (multiple speakers) do now.

從某種意義上說，從功能角度來看——我知道這對你來說很方便，也更容易。在某些方面，它更龐大，因為很多內容都圍繞著各種舉措，無論是創意加工硬件，還是我們在那裡所做的事情。但大部分的節省將來自我們正在做的冗餘工作，因為我們能夠將更多活動轉移到業務轉型和技術轉型的新模式中，並減少對傳統事物的投資。布倫丹，關於這個問題，我就說這麼多。你們（多位發言者）現在就可以了。

Thanks for helping us out. At the Analyst Day you pointed out the -- I think it was like 40% of desktop subscribers were new to Autodesk. I was wondering if you had any new stats on those net new customers that you've been picking up in the model transition?

謝謝你們的幫忙。在分析師日上，您指出——我認為大約有 40% 的桌面用戶是 Autodesk 的新用戶。我想知道你們在模式轉型過程中新增客戶方面是否有任何新的統計數據？

No, Brendan, we're not seeing any significant change in that yet. The one update that I would give -- and Carl actually had it referenced, at least, in his opening commentary, if you remember in that same set of slides that Steve Blum went through, he talked about the percent of our total desktop sales that are being driven by the channel. We showed what that trend had looked like over the last six quarters. We did see that.

不，布倫丹，我們目前還沒有看到這方面有任何顯著變化。我唯一想補充的是——卡爾實際上也提到了這一點，至少在他的開場白中提到了，如果你還記得的話，在史蒂夫·布魯姆展示的那組幻燈片中，他談到了我們桌面電腦總銷售額中由渠道推動的百分比。我們展示了過去六個季度以來的趨勢。我們確實看到了。

It gets at the question earlier that Phil had about what we're seeing in the channel -- or Brent asked about the channel. We are seeing that continue to grow. If you remember that slide, we said at the end of Q2, 58% of our desktop subscription sales came through the channel. In the quarter we just closed, that was up about 2 to 3 more points. It's the majority of our desktop sales now that are coming through channel partners, and it's continuing to increase.

這正切中了菲爾之前提出的關於我們在頻道中看到的內容的問題——或者說是布倫特提出的關於頻道的問題。我們看到這種情況仍在持續增長。如果你還記得那張投影片，我們在第二季末說過，我們桌面訂閱銷售額的 58% 來自通路。在我們剛結束的這個季度，這個數字又上升了大約 2 到 3 個百分點。現在我們大部分桌上型電腦銷售額都來自通路夥伴，而且這一比例還在持續成長。

Are those channel partners generally bringing you net new Autodesk customers?

這些通路夥伴通常能為您帶來新的 Autodesk 客戶嗎？

It's a mix of both.

兩者兼而有之。

Being your installed base.

成為你的用戶群。

It also varies by product. You remember, we also went through for some of the cloud products, Fusion in particular, the statistic of new customers that product -- of all the customers they brought in, what percent are new, I think it was north of 85% on Fusion.

不同產品的價格也各不相同。你還記得嗎，我們也對一些雲端產品，特別是 Fusion，進行了統計，統計了該產品的新客戶數量——在他們帶來的所有客戶中，新客戶佔比是多少？我認為 Fusion 的新客戶佔比超過了 85%。

It's less whether it's coming from the channel, or is it just desktop. It's more, are these products actually getting to increasing the TAM that Amar talked about, and really getting to a new customer set? There hasn't been any change from all the data that we just showed you about six weeks ago, but we are continuing to see a very positive trend of new customers coming in.

問題不在於它來自頻道，還是只是來自桌面。更重要的是，這些產品是否真的像 Amar 所說的那樣增加了 TAM，並且真正獲得了新的客戶群？與我們大約六週前向您展示的所有數據相比，沒有任何變化，但我們繼續看到新客戶湧入的非常積極的趨勢。

We rightfully have spent a lot of time on things like subscriptions, but let me just take a moment here and go through where these new customers are, because I think sometimes we lose track of the health of the business is going to be about these new customers. When you look at most of our cloud-based offerings the first thing I'd say is that we're way ahead of the competition, and the customers are coming along quickly. We might have been ahead of the customers slightly, but not for very long.

我們理所當然地花了很多時間在訂閱等事情上，但請允許我花一點時間，介紹一下這些新客戶在哪裡，因為我認為有時我們會忽略業務的健康狀況取決於這些新客戶。當你審視我們的大多數雲端產品時，我首先要說的是，我們遠遠領先於競爭對手，而客戶也迅速接受了這些產品。我們或許曾經一度領先客戶，但這種優勢不會持續太久。

When you look at things like BIM 360, these are either brand-new customers to Autodesk or new parts of the Company that had no use for our other kinds of tools. If you look at things like POM360, almost entirely these are new customers to Autodesk. Our new Internet of Things, the IOT product, is almost all new customers to Autodesk.

當你看到像 BIM 360 這樣的產品時，你會發現它們要不是 Autodesk 的全新客戶，就是公司內部其他類型工具無法滿足的新部門。如果你看看像 POM360 這樣的公司，你會發現它們幾乎全部都是 Autodesk 的新客戶。我們全新的物聯網 (IoT) 產品幾乎全部針對 Autodesk 的新客戶。

As Scott referenced, and we've talked about repeatedly, fusion is clearly one where we're winning market share from existing competitors. Those are all places that are bringing in new customers. I expect that trend to accelerate as we continue to gain ground, and the world moves towards more cloud-based tools.

正如史考特所提到的，我們也反覆討論過，聚變顯然是我們正在從現有競爭對手那裡贏得市場份額的領域之一。這些地方都在吸引新顧客。我預計隨著我們不斷取得進展，以及世界向更多基於雲端的工具發展，這種趨勢將會加速。

Carl, I totally agree. That's where we want to focus. I'm wondering if there's any way we could get some quarterly metric around that to reinforce that point, because I thought it was a compelling one at the Analyst Day, and certainly one we'd continue to hear more about?

卡爾，我完全同意。這就是我們想要重點關注的地方。我想知道我們是否可以獲得一些季度指標來強化這一點，因為我認為這在分析師日上是一個很有說服力的觀點，而且我們肯定會繼續聽到更多相關內容？

Damn, I never should have gotten into that speech, should I? Yes, let us go back and figure out how we can best convey what we're doing. I think both in two things. Tell me if this would be helpful, is the number of units and something about the percentage of new customers.

糟糕，我真不該參與那場演講，對吧？是的，讓我們回去好好想想怎樣才能最好地傳達我們正在做的事情。我認為這兩點都成立。如果這些資訊對您有幫助，請告訴我單位數量以及新客戶的比例。

That would be -- I think that would be very valuable, yes.

我覺得那會非常有價值，是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝各位。

Our next question is from Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。您的線路已開通。

Thanks, good evening. Carl, I'd like to ask a question that gets to both the cost structure of the Company and the salability of the products. At the analyst meeting you mentioned that one of your opportunities is dealing with the complexity of the portfolio.

謝謝，晚上好。卡爾，我想問一個問題，這個問題既關係到公司的成本結構，也關係到產品的銷售狀況。在分析師會議上，您提到您的機會之一是應對投資組合的複雜性。

The question I'd like to ask is, how are you thinking or planning around simplifying the portfolio, given the large number of SKUs that you have, particularly in terms of suites, just as a matter of improving sales efficiency and cost? Versus, on the other hand, your need to maintain some kind of segmentation of the product line, particularly for the different verticals?

我想問的是，鑑於你們擁有大量的 SKU，特別是套裝產品，你們是如何考慮或計劃簡化產品組合，以提高銷售效率和降低成本的？另一方面，您是否需要對產品線進行某種程度的細分，特別是針對不同的垂直領域？

Yes. This can -- it's a place where we've been spending a lot of time thinking and planning for it, because you're absolutely right. Complexity and particularly unintended complexity drives costs. This is a huge opportunity for us to simplify and reduce the cost. It also makes for a better experience for our customers. We think we can make our customers get more value and pay us more.

是的。這方面——我們花了很多時間思考和計劃，因為你說得完全正確。複雜性，尤其是無意中產生的複雜性，會增加成本。這對我們來說是一個簡化流程、降低成本的絕佳機會。這也為我們的客戶帶來了更好的體驗。我們認為我們可以讓客戶獲得更多價值，並讓他們支付更多費用。

We've talked about this a lot with our enterprise customers. When we've given them a more flexible licensing mechanism, they use more software. They paid us more per year. I would say, at least anecdotally, they're happier about it because they really understand where the use is. I think at the last two Investor Days, we've talked about that dynamic.

我們已經和企業客戶多次討論過這個問題。當我們為他們提供更靈活的授權機制時，他們會使用更多的軟體。他們每年付給我們的薪水更高。至少從一些軼事來看，他們對此感到更滿意，因為他們真正了解了它的用途。我認為在過去的兩次投資者日上，我們都討論過這種動態。

The biggest thing in my mind we can do is extend that flexibility that we now have, really only sold directly by us to our largest customers, to the bulk of our customers in the part that's serviced by our traditional channel partners. We really want our mid-tier customers, the smaller medium businesses, to get that same kind of flexibility.

我認為我們能做的最重要的事情，就是將我們現在擁有的這種靈活性（實際上只有我們直接銷售給最大的客戶才能享受到）擴展到我們大部分客戶，也就是那些由我們傳統通路合作夥伴提供服務的客戶。我們真心希望我們的中型客戶，也就是規模較小的中型企業，也能獲得相同的彈性。

You're absolutely, right, Jay, we need to make sure. Handing them all of our products is not particularly helpful, but also breaking it down into 10,000 SKUs is not helpful, either. We're looking at the minimal set that we need so they can pay an appropriate price, and get the set of tools that they might need.

傑伊，你說得完全正確，我們需要確認一下。把我們所有的產品交給他們並沒有什麼幫助，但把產品細分成 10,000 個 SKU 也沒有什麼幫助。我們正在研究他們需要的最小套裝，以便他們能夠支付合適的價格，並獲得他們可能需要的工具套裝。

In addition, what we're going to do with that, is layer in cloud services, so that they can really pay on demand for the things they may or may not need. But it's really about that flexibility, which is where we feel the way to simplify it, and to make it a better experience for them, and to make it more lucrative for us.

此外，我們將在此基礎上疊加雲端服務，以便他們能夠真正按需付費，為他們可能需要或不需要的東西付費。但關鍵在於靈活性，我們認為這是簡化流程、為使用者帶來更好體驗、並為我們帶來更多利潤的途徑。

To the second part of your question there, if you're getting at, are we still going to have a differentiation between AEC and manufacturing and M&E, that's clearly part of the thinking. Andrew was getting a little bit of this in his presentation at Investor Day of how do we simplify that, by continuing to have something that is targeted. It makes sense for a use case in the various verticals. We'll continue to maintain that at some level, but greatly simplify the way we give it to them.

至於你問題的第二部分，如果你指的是，我們是否還會區分 AEC、製造業和 M&E，這顯然是我們思考的一部分。安德魯在投資者日的演講中也略微談到了這一點，即我們如何透過繼續保持目標明確的方式來簡化這個過程。它適用於各個垂直領域的特定應用場景。我們將繼續在一定程度上保持這種狀態，但會大大簡化我們向他們提供資訊的方式。

Sooner or later, and hopefully sooner, you'll deploy what would be in effect a creative cloud-like sign-on for the SMB market, with what you've been calling anyway to date, Subscribe to Autodesk. You have to come up with a better name than that. Is that a FY17 objective, still?

遲早，希望是早點，你們會為中小企業市場部署一個類似創意雲端的登入平台，也就是你們迄今為止一直稱之為「訂閱 Autodesk」的平台。你得想個更好的名字。那還是2017財年的目標嗎？

First of all, Jay, we appreciate the suggestions that you've published. We've rejected them all, first of all.

首先，Jay，我們感謝你提出的建議。首先，我們已經全部拒絕了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

But -- stick to your day job. But yes, it's an important thing for us to offer, and we will be offering it. Whether it stays that name or not, stay tuned. But yes, it really is that flexible offering.

但是——還是老實做好你的本職工作吧。是的，這對我們來說是一件非常重要的事情，我們會提供這項服務。最終是否沿用這個名字，敬請期待。但沒錯，它確實提供了非常靈活的方案。

Remember, it's not only just simplifying and the cost structure, we also -- this is slightly more complicated, but the question has come up, so what do you do about the 2.1 million users, and do they move to desktop subscription? I'll reiterate here, those 2.1 million customers have historically been our best customers. They still are our best customers today.

記住，這不僅僅是簡化和成本結構的問題，我們還——這稍微複雜一些，但這個問題已經出現了，那麼對於 210 萬用戶該怎麼辦，他們會轉向桌面訂閱嗎？我再次重申，這 210 萬客戶歷來都是我們最好的客戶。他們至今仍然是我們最好的客戶。

We think the way to move them over so that they get more value and pay more is to move them to flexible license offerings at their discretion. We have a number of knobs and dials to do that. What we really believe is the essence of it is having a more compelling offering. Everything we've been shown to date is some combination of access to more desktop products and access to the cloud services is the thing that is compelling.

我們認為，讓他們獲得更多價值並支付更多費用的方法是，讓他們能夠自主選擇靈活的授權方案。我們有很多旋鈕和撥盤可以做到這一點。我們真正相信，其本質在於提供更具吸引力的產品和服務。到目前為止，我們所看到的都是桌面產品和雲端服務結合的某種方式，而這才是真正吸引人的地方。

You'll hear more about it. We'll introduce it. At this point, I feel like we have enough moving parts in the model that we don't need to introduce a lot more, but you will hear more about it during the year.

你會聽到更多相關消息。我們會介紹它。我覺得目前這個模型已經有了足夠的組成部分，不需要再引入更多內容，但今年你們會聽到更多相關資訊。

Lastly if I may, in the future of Autodesk-land, once the model gets steady state and so forth, what do you think would the role of your rebate promotions, PLOs, and so forth will be? Do you think you'll have to employ those kinds of levers as often as you've done in the past under the old model?

最後，如果可以的話，我想問一下，在 Autodesk 的未來，一旦模型穩定下來等等，您認為您的返利促銷、PLO 等將會發揮什麼作用？你認為在新模式下，你還需要像過去在舊模式下那樣頻繁地使用這些手段嗎？

I have a point of view. It is not widely shared by my Executive Management team. I feel like promotions are important for one reason, and that is to create a compelling event for people to choose to buy. For the most part, us as well as our competitors, we sell on the value of the offerings, the quality of the offerings, the suitability of the offerings, the completeness of the offerings, is what make people buy it. When they buy is influenced by everybody likes a deal.

我有一個觀點。我的高階主管團隊中很少人認同這一點。我覺得促銷活動之所以重要，原因只有一個，就是創造一個能吸引人們購買的優惠活動。大多數情況下，我們和我們的競爭對手一樣，都是依賴產品的價值、品質、適用性和完整性來銷售產品，這些才是人們購買產品的原因。他們的購買行為會受到各種因素的影響，因為每個人都喜歡物美價廉的東西。

If you look around the world, the number of companies who never sell with a discount, is tiny in the technology business. It might be non-existent, with the exception of Apple. I see this as being a way to control the timing. But of course in the -- you want to minimize this as much as possible, and only do it to create compelling events.

放眼全球，科技業中從不打折銷售的公司數量少之又少。除了蘋果公司之外，其他公司可能根本不存在。我認為這是控制時機的一種方法。當然，在——你希望盡可能減少這種情況，並且只在創造引人入勝的事件時才這樣做。

We have a disciplined approach to promotions. They're centrally controlled. We're trying to influence behavior. We're trying to influence behavior, not only of our customers, but of our partners. I think it is one of the tools we have. I would be reluctant to give it up. You need to use it judiciously. There's an art to using it. I think the more dogmatic point of view, in which there's never a promotion and you only sell at list price, doesn't fit reality. I think it takes one of the valuable tools out of your hand.

我們對晉升採取嚴謹的方法。它們由中央統一控制。我們正在試圖影響人們的行為。我們試圖影響的行為，不僅是我們的客戶，還有我們合作夥伴的行為。我認為這是我們擁有的工具之一。我不太願意放棄它。你需要謹慎使用它。使用它是一門藝術。我認為那種教條主義的觀點，就是永遠不要做促銷，只以標價出售，並不符合現實。我認為這會讓你失去一項寶貴的工具。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome, Jay.

不客氣，傑伊。

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to David Gennarelli for any closing comments.

謝謝。此時，我想把電話交給大衛‧詹納雷利，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, operator. Well, that concludes our call today. We also have our Autodesk University event coming up on December 1. If you'd like to attend that and you're not signed up yet, please e-mail or call me. We'll also be at the Credit Suisse conference on December 2, and the Barclays conference on December 9. You can reach me at. (415) 507-6033. Thank you.

謝謝接線生。好了，今天的通話就到這裡。我們將於12月1日舉辦Autodesk University活動。如果您想參加但尚未註冊，請給我發電子郵件或打電話。我們也將於12月2日參加瑞士信貸會議，並於12月9日參加巴克萊銀行會議。您可以透過以下方式聯絡我：（415）507-6033。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes your program. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。您的課程到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。