自動資料處理 (ADP) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Second Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我是Michelle，本次會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2022財年第二季財報電話會議。請注意，本次會議正在錄音。 （接線生提示）

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Danyal Hussain, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁丹尼爾·侯賽因先生。請開始吧。

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome everyone to ADP's Second Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. Participating today are Carlos Rodriguez, our CEO; and Don McGuire, our CFO. Also joining us for Q&A is Maria Black, President of ADP.

謝謝Michelle，歡迎各位參加ADP 2022財年第二季財報電話會議。今天出席會議的有我們的執行長Carlos Rodriguez和財務長Don McGuire。 ADP總裁Maria Black也將參與問答環節。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早些時候，我們發布了本季業績報告。您可以在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上查閱我們的業績報告資料，該網站還提供今天電話會議的投資者簡報。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description of these items, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures, can be found in our earnings release.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標。我們認為這些指標對投資者更有幫助，因為它們剔除了某些項目的影響。有關這些項目的說明以及非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們的獲利報告。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件，並存在一定風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期有重大差異的因素。

And with that, let me turn it over to Carlos.

那麼，現在讓我把麥克風交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Danny, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call.

謝謝丹尼，也謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。

We're pleased to have delivered strong second quarter results, including 9% revenue growth, 20 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and a 9% increase in adjusted diluted EPS, all ahead of our expectations. This remains a very dynamic and challenging business environment for our clients and prospects, but we believe the value of working with a trusted HCM partner with more than 70 years of expertise is more compelling than ever. And we see evidence of this reflected in our continued sales momentum as well as our very high levels of client satisfaction and retention, which continue to drive upside to our results.

我們很高興地宣布第二季業績強勁，包括營收成長9%，調整後息稅前利潤率提升20個基點，以及調整後攤薄每股收益成長9%，均超乎預期。儘管當前商業環境對我們的客戶和潛在客戶而言依然充滿挑戰，但我們相信，與擁有70餘年經驗的值得信賴的人力資本管理 (HCM) 合作夥伴攜手共進的價值比以往任何時候都更加顯著。我們持續的銷售成長動能以及極高的客戶滿意度和客戶留存率都印證了這一點，這些因素也持續推動著我們業績的成長。

As usual, let me start with some highlights from the quarter. Our Employer Services new business bookings results were strong despite the onset of Omicron variant at the end of the quarter. We experienced a record Q2 bookings level, and like Q1, we were pleased to be ahead of pre-pandemic sales productivity levels. We experienced robust double-digit growth in nearly every one of our ES businesses. And as we saw earlier in the year, we experienced even stronger performance in our PEO segment, where demand is especially robust.

照例，首先讓我介紹一下本季的一些亮點。儘管Omicron變體產品在本季末上市，但我們的雇主服務新業務預訂業績依然強勁。我們第二季的預訂量創下歷史新高，與第一季一樣，我們很高興能夠超越疫情前的銷售效率水準。我們幾乎所有雇主服務業務都實現了兩位數的強勁成長。正如我們年初所見，我們的專業雇主組織（PEO）業務表現更為出色，該業務的需求尤其強勁。

As we outlined at our November Investor Day, the pandemic and the dynamic macroeconomic environment have made running HR more challenging for our clients. Today, our clients must navigate a tight labor market across their organizations; higher-than-usual worker turnover; new legislative requirements; and, in many cases, stocking challenges, specifically within their payroll and HR departments.

正如我們在11月投資者日所概述的，疫情和瞬息萬變的宏觀經濟環境使客戶的人力資源管理面臨更大的挑戰。如今，我們的客戶必須應對組織內部勞動力市場緊張、員工流動率高於往常、新的法律法規要求，以及在許多情況下，尤其是在薪資和人力資源部門的庫存管理難題。

The strong broad-based demand across our ES and PEO segments reflects the fact the clients of all sizes are increasingly looking for greater levels of assistance and expertise to help address their needs, in some cases, seeking our intuitive yet comprehensive software offerings, while in other cases, seeking a more fully outsourced solution. We believe we provide extraordinary value through all business environments and today's environment supports a continuation of a positive decades-long secular trend in global HCM.

我們在企業服務 (ES) 和專業外包 (PEO) 領域的強勁需求，反映出各種規模的客戶日益尋求更高水準的幫助和專業知識來滿足自身需求。在某些情況下，他們尋求我們直覺而全面的軟體產品；而在其他情況下，他們則尋求更全面的外包解決方案。我們相信，我們能夠在各種商業環境中提供卓越的價值，而當今的商業環境也支持全球人力資本管理 (HCM) 領域數十年來持續的積極發展趨勢。

Moving on to Employer Services retention. We are pleased to have experienced continued strength. Although our retention in the quarter did decline very slightly versus last year's elevated level, it declined by less than we had anticipated and would have represented a record Q2 if you were to exclude last year's pandemic-impacted retention levels.

接下來談談雇主服務客戶留存率。我們很高興看到該項指標持續保持強勁勢頭。儘管本季客戶留存率較去年同期的高點略有下降，但降幅小於預期，如果排除去年受疫情影響的客戶留存率，本季將創下歷史新高。

With overall client satisfaction once again reaching a record level this quarter, the strong retention is not surprising to us. Moreover, early January results look strong, giving us greater confidence for the rest of the year, and we are pleased to be raising our retention guidance once again.

本季客戶整體滿意度再次創下歷史新高，強勁的客戶留存率在我們看來並不令人意外。此外，1月初的業績表現強勁，讓我們對今年剩餘時間更有信心，因此我們很高興再次上調客戶留存率預期。

Our ES pays per control metric came in slightly better than expected at 6% growth in the quarter. We are very pleased to see the U.S. unemployment rate back below 4%, which reflects the U.S. economy's ongoing improvement and resulting strong demand for workers. Meanwhile, labor force participation is gradually recovering, and as it does, we should continue to benefit from higher-than-usual pays per control growth.

本季我們的ES每控制項薪酬指標略優於預期，成長了6%。我們非常高興地看到美國失業率回落至4%以下，這反映出美國經濟的持續改善以及由此帶來的強勁勞動力需求。同時，勞動參與率正在逐步恢復，隨著勞動參與率的回升，我們應該會繼續受益於高於平常的每一個控制項薪資成長。

Over the first half of the fiscal year, we've tracked ahead of our expectations and are now raising our pays per control outlook for the full year. In the second quarter, our PEO had stellar performance once again and was well ahead of our expectations with 15% revenue growth and 16% average worksite employee growth, representing acceleration from last quarter despite a slightly harder growth comparison.

在本財年上半年，我們的業績超出預期，因此我們提高了全年的薪酬控制預期。第二季度，我們的專業雇主組織（PEO）再次表現出色，遠超預期，營收成長15%，平均員工人數成長16%，儘管與上一季相比成長略有放緩，但依然實現了加速成長。

The across-the-board strength in our PEO continues to be driven by several factors, including better-than-expected retention and bookings contributing to client growth; better-than-expected hiring within the PEO client base, further adding to worksite employee growth; and better-than-expected wage levels further adding to revenue growth. While some of these tailwinds will normalize over time, we remain very confident in the outlook of our PEO business over the coming years.

我們PEO業務的全面強勁成長持續得益於多項因素，包括：客戶留存率和預訂量超出預期，推動客戶成長；PEO客戶群內部招募人數超出預期，進一步促進了工作場所員工人數的成長；以及薪資水準高於預期，進一步推動了營收成長。儘管其中一些利好因素會隨著時間推移而趨於穩定，但我們對未來幾年PEO業務的前景依然充滿信心。

During our November Investor Day, we also outlined key aspects of our growth strategy by product and by business unit. And we are confident about sustaining healthy growth in our fast-growing businesses and optimistic about accelerating our growth in our businesses that continue to transition to our most modern offerings.

在11月的投資者日上，我們也按產品和業務部門概述了我們成長策略的關鍵面向。我們有信心在快速成長的業務中保持穩健成長，並對那些正在向最先進產品轉型業務的加速成長充滿信心。

One aspect of our growth strategy that we discussed is an overall greater focus on marketing, which we believe will allow us to better activate our existing scale distribution. We believe at ADP, we can deliver a lot of incremental value from tactical investments, and we look forward to sharing more in the very near future.

在我們討論的成長策略中，有一點是需要更加重視行銷，我們相信這將有助於我們更好地發揮現有規模化的分銷管道。我們相信，ADP 可以透過戰術性投資創造巨大的增量價值，我們期待在不久的將來與大家分享更多資訊。

One key product initiative we talked about during Investor Day that cuts across our businesses is the development of a new unified user experience. And in the second quarter, we were pleased to have made further progress on this effort. As a reminder, we shared last quarter that we moved our RUN client base over to the new ADP U.S. And now, only a quarter in, early indicators suggest that clients are, in fact, finding it more intuitive, resulting in fewer client service contacts.

我們在投資者日上重點介紹了一項貫穿我們所有業務的關鍵產品舉措，即開發全新的統一用戶體驗。在第二季度，我們很高興地看到這項工作取得了進一步進展。回顧上個季度，我們宣布已將 RUN 客戶群遷移至新的 ADP 美國平台。如今，僅一個季度過去，初步跡象表明，客戶確實覺得新平台更加直觀易用，從而減少了客戶服務聯繫次數。

In Europe, we have been gradually transitioning our client base over to our award-winning IHCM platform. And in Q2, we seamlessly moved those clients over to the new ADP UX. And we're now very excited that just this month, we began our pilot of the new ADP user experience for Workforce Now, which, when coupled with our Next Gen Payroll engine, makes for an even more differentiated offering for what is already the market-leading HCM solution in its target markets.

在歐洲，我們一直在逐步將客戶群遷移到我們屢獲殊榮的IHCM平台。第二季度，我們已將這些客戶無縫遷移到全新的ADP用戶體驗。我們非常高興地宣布，就在本月，我們啟動了Workforce Now全新ADP用戶體驗的試點計畫。該體驗與我們的下一代薪資引擎相結合，將為這款在其目標市場中已處於市場領先地位的HCM解決方案打造更具差異化優勢的產品。

And in terms of a few other highlights, I'm pleased to share that we reached a new milestone by running 1 million payslips for a single client on a single day for the first time. And at the other end of the spectrum, our Roll mobile app, which serves the micro segment, continues to outperform our initial expectations.

此外，還有一些其他亮點值得一提。首先，我們很高興地宣布，我們首次在一天內為單一客戶處理了100萬份薪資單，達到了一個新的里程碑。其次，微型企業的Roll行動應用程式也持續超越我們最初的預期。

In another milestone, in calendar 2021, the ADP mobile app had over 1 billion logins, highlighting the growing amount of direct engagement we have with employees and managers around the world. To that point, this month, our Return to Workplace mobile solution, part of the ADP Mobile app, was awarded the Business Intelligence Group's 2022 Big Innovation Award.

2021年，ADP行動應用程式登入次數突破10億次，這標誌著我們與全球員工和管理人員的直接互動日益頻繁，也標誌著我們又邁出了重要一步。此外，本月，作為ADP行動應用一部分的「重返工作場所」行動解決方案榮獲了商業智慧集團頒發的2022年度創新大獎。

And as a final highlight, just this week, we launched our Bill Pay feature in the Wisely app. Bill Pay is free to Wisely the users and fully integrated into the app and has been a top-requested feature from our user base. We believe this addition will further drive engagement and retention, and we look forward to continuing to expand the Wisely ecosystem.

最後，本週我們也隆重推出Wisely應用程式中的帳單支付功能。帳單支付功能對Wisely用戶完全免費，並已完全整合到應用程式中，這是我們用戶呼聲最高的功能之一。我們相信，這項新功能將進一步提升用戶參與度與留存率，也期待持續拓展Wisely生態系統。

Overall, Q2 represented a solid outcome on both the financial front as well as with respect to key strategic initiatives. I'd like to thank our associates, who continue to deliver these exceptional products and outstanding service to our clients.

整體而言，第二季在財務方面以及關鍵策略舉措方面均取得了穩健的成果。我要感謝我們的同事們，他們始終如一地為客戶提供卓越的產品和優質的服務。

And I'll now turn the call over to Don.

現在我將把電話交給唐。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，大家早安。

In the second quarter, we delivered 9% revenue growth on both a reported and organic constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBIT margin was up 20 basis points, better than planned, and supported by our better-than-expected revenue growth, offset partially by increased PEO pass-throughs and headcount growth in our implementation and service organizations. I'll share more on this last point when I discuss our outlook.

第二季度，我們按報告數據和自然成長（以固定匯率計算）均實現了9%的營收成長。調整後的息稅前利潤率提升了20個基點，優於預期，這主要得益於超出預期的收入增長，但部分被PEO轉嫁費用增加以及實施和服務部門人員增長所抵消。關於最後一點，我將在討論公司展望時詳細闡述。

Our tax rate was up slightly in the quarter versus last year, driven by the lapping of a onetime international tax benefit we experienced last year. When including the benefit from share repurchases, we had a 9% increase in our adjusted diluted earnings per share.

本季我們的稅率較去年同期略有上升，主要原因是去年獲得的一次性國際稅收優惠到期。在計入股票回購收益後，我們的調整後稀釋每股收益成長了9%。

Moving on to the segments. Our Employer Services revenues increased 6% on a reported basis and 7% on an organic constant currency basis. In addition to the strong bookings, retention trends and pays per control performance that Carlos outlined, our client funds interest grew for the first time since the pandemic started as lower average yield was offset by a tremendous 28% balance growth.

接下來是各業務板塊。我們的雇主服務收入按報告基準成長了6%，以有機成長（以固定匯率計算）成長了7%。除了卡洛斯提到的強勁預訂量、客戶留存率和按控制付費業績外，客戶資金利息自疫情爆發以來首次增長，這是因為平均收益率的下降被高達28%的餘額增長所抵消。

This growth included some benefit from the lapping of last year's deferred employer social security taxes and incremental benefit from the repayment of a portion of those employers' social security taxes, which, together, contributed several points of growth in addition to the already robust growth from higher client count, employment growth and higher wages. Our ES margin increased 40 basis points, ahead of our expectations for the quarter and supported by better-than-expected revenue performance.

這一增長部分得益於去年遞延繳納的雇主社保稅款的抵扣，以及部分雇主社保稅款的償還，這兩項因素共同促成了數個百分點的增長，此外，客戶數量增加、就業增長和工資上漲也帶來了強勁的增長。我們的雇主服務利潤率提高了40個基點，超越季度預期，這主要得益於優於預期的營收表現。

Moving on, our PEO continued to deliver exceptional performance, with 15% revenue growth in the quarter. Average worksite employees accelerated to 16% year-over-year growth and reached 660,000 for the quarter. Key contributors were strong bookings and retention as well as very healthy pace for control growth within the PEO client base.

此外，我們的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 業務持續保持卓越表現，本季營收成長 15%。平均每個工作場所的員工人數較去年同期成長 16%，本季達到 66 萬人。強勁的預訂量和客戶留存率，以及 PEO 客戶群中控制業務的穩健成長，是實現這一成長的關鍵因素。

Revenues, excluding zero-margin pass-throughs, grew 18%, which was driven by worksite employee growth as well as higher average wages and higher SUI revenues per worksite employee. PEO margin was down 10 basis points in the quarter. Included in that figure was pressured from workers' comp and SUI expenses due primarily to worker mix and wages.

剔除零利潤轉嫁計畫後，營收成長18%，主要得益於工作場所員工人數成長、平均薪資上漲以及每位工作場所員工的州保險收入增加。 PEO業務利潤率在本季下降10個基點，其中包含了因員工結構和工資水平變化而導致的工傷賠償和州保險支出壓力。

Moving on to our updated outlook for the year. For ES revenues, we are narrowing our guidance and now expect growth of about 6%, the upper end of our previous guidance range of 5% to 6%. The primary drivers for our higher outlook are the stronger Q2 performance, our higher client funds' interest outlook for the year and higher pays per control growth, partially offset by an expectation from incremental FX headwinds in the back half of this year on the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

接下來是更新後的年度展望。對於ES收入，我們縮小了預期範圍，目前預期成長約6%，處於先前5%至6%預期範圍的上限。推動我們提高預期的主要因素包括第二季度業績強勁、客戶資金全年利息預期上調以及每控制權支付額增長增加，但部分被近期美元走強帶來的下半年外匯不利因素所抵消。

For our client funds interest revenue, we're raising our outlook by $20 million to a range of $440 million to $450 million. Like last quarter, we're raising our balance gross assumption meaningfully to now expect growth of 18% to 20%, whereas our client funds yield expectation is unchanged despite the improvement in the interest rates. This is primarily because of our stronger-than-previously-expected balance performance creates a temporary lag with greater short-term investments before we purchase higher-yielding fixed-rate securities.

對於客戶資金利息收入，我們將預期調高2,000萬美元，至4.4億美元至4.5億美元。與上季一樣，我們大幅上調了餘額總額預期，目前預計將成長18%至20%。儘管利率有所改善，但我們對客戶資金收益率的預期保持不變。這主要是因為我們強於預期的餘額表現導致短期投資增加，造成暫時的滯後，之後我們才會購買收益更高的固定利率證券。

For U.S. pays per control, we're raising our outlook by 1% to now expect 5% to 6% growth. We continue to expect that a gradual ongoing recovery in labor force participation will support job growth, and the first half of the year was a bit ahead of expectations.

美國人均薪酬，我們將預期調高1%，目前預期成長5%至6%。我們仍預期勞動參與率的持續逐步復甦將支撐就業成長，而今年上半年的就業情況略好於預期。

In addition to client funds and pays book control, we are raising our retention guidance slightly and now expect it to be down 40 basis points for the year. Although we still anticipate some normalization in client switching activity, trends so far this year have been very positive, and January is looking like a continuation of that same strength.

除了客戶資金和支付帳簿控制外，我們還略微上調了客戶留存率預期，目前預計全年將下降40個基點。儘管我們仍預期客戶轉換活動會逐漸恢復正常，但今年迄今的趨勢非常積極，1月份的強勁勢頭有望延續。

One thing we're not changing at this time is our ES booking guidance. As Carlos outlined, our Q2 performance was strong, but bookings is one place where the evolving pandemic conditions and the Omicron variant has potential to create noise as we saw at the outset of the pandemic. Although we haven't seen a material impact at this time, we still think it's prudent to maintain a wide range of outcomes in our guidance.

目前我們不會改變的一點是ES的訂單預訂預期。正如Carlos所指出的，我們第二季的業績表現強勁，但訂單預訂量可能會受到疫情情勢變化以及Omicron變體的影響，正如我們在疫情初期所見。儘管目前我們尚未看到實質影響，但我們仍然認為在訂單預期中保持廣泛的預測範圍是審慎之舉。

For our ES margin, we are making no change to our outlook of up 75 to 100 basis points. Although we are raising our revenue guidance and although some of that is coming from high-margin revenues like clients fund interest and pays per control, at the same time, we are now more fully caught up on implementation and service headcount after running a bit behind earlier this year and late last year.

對於我們的ES利潤率，我們維持先前75至100個基點的預期不變。儘管我們提高了收入預期，其中一部分來自客戶支付的利息和按控制付費等高利潤率收入，但與此同時，在經歷了今年年初和去年年底的些許延誤後，我們目前已基本趕上了實施和服務人員的進度。

This investment in implementation and service teams is critical, both because the current year-end period is important to our clients and their employees, and also as we look to get ahead of the needs of our growing client base. With the continued outperformance in retention, we're now planning to grow our implementation and service teams slightly more than we had previously planned as we exit this fiscal year.

對實施和服務團隊的這項投資至關重要，這不僅是因為當前的年終時期對我們的客戶及其員工來說非常重要，也是因為我們希望提前滿足不斷增長的客戶群的需求。由於客戶留存率持續優異，我們計劃在本財年結束之際，略微擴大實施和服務團隊的規模，使其略高於先前的計劃。

In addition to this growth in personnel, we also took onetime compensation actions across our organization in recognition of broader inflation trends in the market. The incremental expenses associated with those actions are now included in our outlook.

除了人員成長外，鑑於市場整體通膨趨勢，我們還在全公司範圍內採取了一次性薪酬調整措施。與這些措施相關的額外支出現已計入我們的業績展望中。

Although this tight labor market has created its own set of challenges for most companies, we are very pleased to have been able to grow our organization as much as we did these past few months. And the wage increases we layered in give us confidence regarding our staffing levels at a busy time of the year. We are also pleased to have been able to support those changes without detriment to our existing guidance ranges.

儘管勞動力市場緊張給大多數公司帶來了許多挑戰，但我們非常高興在過去幾個月中能夠實現如此大的發展。我們逐步提高薪資水平，也讓我們對一年中最繁忙時期的員工人數充滿信心。此外，我們也欣慰地看到，這些調整併未影響我們現有的業績預期。

Moving on to the PEO. Following the strong first half trends in both client growth and worksite employee growth, we are now expecting average worksite employees to grow 13% to 15%. And we are likewise raising our guidance for PEO revenues and revenues excluding zero-margin pass-throughs by 2 percentage points each.

接下來談談PEO業務。鑑於上半年客戶成長和現場員工成長均呈現強勁勢頭，我們預期現場員工平均成長率將達到13%至15%。同時，我們也相應地將PEO收入預期和剔除零利潤轉嫁費用後的收入預期分別上調2個百分點。

Our outlook will continue to be sensitive to employment trends within our PEO client base as well as bookings and retention performance. So although we are currently contemplating growth to be a bit lower in the back half of the year, we could continue to see upside if the current robust trends persist. For PEO margin, we are making no change to our guidance of flat to down 50 basis points for the year.

我們的展望將持續密切關注PEO客戶群的就業趨勢以及訂單量和客戶留存率。因此，儘管我們目前預計下半年成長速度會略有放緩，但如果目前的強勁勢頭能夠持續，我們仍有可能看到成長空間。對於PEO利潤率，我們維持全年持平或下降50個基點的預期不變。

Although we are raising our revenue guidance, we are, at the same time, expecting higher SUI and workers' comp expenses to create offsetting margin pressure. Putting it all together for our consolidated outlook, we now expect revenue to grow 8% to 9%. For adjusted EBIT margin, we continue to expect an increase of 50 to 75 basis points.

儘管我們上調了營收預期，但同時預期更高的社會保險和工傷賠償支出將對利潤率造成抵銷性壓力。綜合所有因素，我們現在預計營收將成長8%至9%。對於調整後的息稅前利潤率，我們仍然預期會成長50至75個基點。

As we shared earlier this year, we expect our margin improvement to be concentrated in the fourth quarter and expect our margin to be down in Q3, particularly following the recent personnel growth and wage increases. We're making no change to our tax rate assumption. And with these changes, we now expect growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share of 12% to 14%.

正如我們今年稍早所分享的，我們預計利潤率的改善將集中在第四季度，而第三季度利潤率預計會下降，尤其是在近期人員成長和薪資上漲之後。我們維持稅率假設不變。基於這些調整，我們現在預計調整後稀釋每股盈餘將成長12%至14%。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it back to Michelle for Q&A.

謝謝，現在我將把問答環節交還給米歇爾。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Keane with DB.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 DB 的 Bryan Keane。

Congrats on the results. Just want to ask on the impact to of Omicron, especially in December and January. Is there any noticeable impact in sales or retention? Or anything that you'd call out, particularly from the rise that we've seen from the virus in Omicron?

恭喜取得這樣的成績！我想問Omicron受到的影響，尤其是在12月和1月。銷售額或顧客留存率方面是否有明顯變化？或者您有什麼特別想指出的，特別是考慮到Omicron在疫情期間的成長？

Yes. I think you've heard from our prepared comments that the answer was no. But when you think about the way the quarter works, the Omicron really started to pick up in, I would say, middle to late December in terms of my recollection. It's really incredible how fast things have changed, right, with this. Because now we're back on the down slope in the Northeast, it appears, at least, in the U.S. So it's pretty fast moving.

是的。我想您已經從我們事先準備好的評論中得知答案是否定的。但如果您仔細想想季度走勢，就我的記憶而言，奧密克戎指數真正開始上漲是在12月中下旬。情況變化之快令人難以置信，對吧？因為現在看來，至少在美國，東北地區的指數又開始下跌了。所以，情勢變化確實很快。

But I would say that our answer is no, we didn't see anything in the quarter that we just reported. Obviously, we're now in the next quarter. And it's kind of difficult to start talking about the next quarter, given we're only, I think, 3 weeks into it. But you've seen probably multiple reports. I saw one this morning in the journal about -- I think it was the IMF or someone, kind of lowering kind of global growth and so forth. And some of it is, obviously, a result of Omicron. There's probably other factors as well.

但我想說，我們的答案是否定的，在我們剛剛公佈的季度報告中，我們沒有看到任何相關數據。顯然，現在已經進入下一個季度了。考慮到我們才剛開始（我想大概三週吧），現在就開始討論下一個季度的情況還為時過早。但您可能已經看到了很多相關的報告。我今天早上在期刊上看到一份——我記得好像是國際貨幣基金組織或其他機構發布的——關於全球經濟成長預期下調等等。顯然，其中一些原因是「奧密克戎」計劃造成的。當然，可能還有其他因素。

We do believe that we're not immune from these kind of things that ripple through the economy, including Omicron. But the truth is, we haven't really seen a big impact yet. But if GDP growth -- I think the GDP growth for the full year calendar year, most people have kind of kept it in the same range. So I'm guessing that people have lowered their first quarter, talking about calendar quarters now, GDP growth forecast slightly and probably increased.

我們確實認為，包括奧密克戎事件在內的這類波及經濟的事件，我們無法置身事外。但事實上，我們尚未真正感受到其重大影響。就全年GDP成長而言——我認為大多數人對全年GDP成長的預期都維持在原始水準。所以我猜測，人們已經略微下調了第一季（現在指的是季度）的GDP成長預期，甚至可能有所上調。

Because I think it's just a matter of pushing activity forward because it does look like, in a few weeks, things will start to "normalize" in at least a portion of the country. And then I think, shortly thereafter, economic activity should be robust again, as was, I think, predicted by a bunch of economists. So anyway, it's a long-winded way of saying, not really, not yet, but we're always careful to not assume that we are somehow insulated completely from what happens in the overall economy.

因為我認為現在的問題只是如何推動各項活動向前發展，因為看起來幾週後，至少部分地區的經濟活動就會開始「恢復正常」。然後我認為，此後不久，經濟活動應該會再次強勁成長，正如許多經濟學家所預測的那樣。總之，我囉嗦了這麼多，其實就是想說，目前還沒有完全恢復正常，但我們始終謹慎，不會認為自己可以完全不受整體經濟情勢的影響。

If people are traveling a little bit less -- I mean our -- for example, our own associate population, we proactively asked. We were already back in the process of getting people back into our offices, and we kind of went back in the other direction for about a month or 2. That just lowers economic activity. People aren't driving as much. They're not going to lunch in the local area, et cetera. And those things have a ripple effect through the economy, but no signs of any kind of major decrease in demand or economic activity from our numbers yet.

如果人們出行減少一些——比如我們自己的員工，我們主動詢問過。我們當時正在安排員工返回辦公室，但大約一兩個月後，情況又有所逆轉。這確實會降低經濟活動。人們開車減少，不在附近吃午餐等等。這些都會對經濟產生連鎖反應，但從我們的數據來看，目前還沒有需求或經濟活動大幅下降的跡象。

Got it. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the strength in the balance growth. I think it was up 22% last quarter, up 28% this quarter. I don't know if you guys look at how much inflation is -- could be driving that number as well. And any other call-outs? I know you raised the guide there, but just surprised at the strength there.

明白了，這很有幫助。另外，我想問餘額成長的強勁勢頭。我記得上季成長了22%，這季度成長了28%。不知道你們有沒有考慮通膨因素──通膨也可能是影響成長的原因之一。還有其他需要注意的地方嗎？我知道你們提高了業績預期，但餘額成長的強勁勢頭還是讓我有些意外。

Yes, we have had some growth. So certainly, wages are -- were a little bit of that. But also, as we said in the prepared remarks, the big driver was the grow-over from the lapping from last year with the deferrals. So certainly, the deferrals represented a few points in the growth of that -- of those balances in the quarter, although even the deferrals were only for a number of -- a few number of days towards the end of the month of December.

是的，我們確實實現了成長。薪資成長當然起到了一定的作用。但正如我們在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，主要驅動因素是去年延期支付的款項結轉。因此，延期支付確實為本季的餘額成長貢獻了一些百分比，儘管這些延期支付僅持續了12月底的幾天。

So certainly, we look at those. But as we said, we do expect the balance growth to continue. We expect it to be firm based on the pays per control and the increase in the number of people working for our clients. I think that's the biggest driver.

所以，我們當然會關注這些因素。但正如我們所說，我們預計餘額成長將持續。我們預計餘額成長將保持穩定，這主要得益於每位控制員的薪酬以及我們客戶員工數量的增加。我認為這是最大的驅動因素。

And just in terms of a refresher, by deferrals, I think Don said in his remarks, the social security tax deferrals. Now everyone lives this day to day like us, but it was a significant stimulus -- part of the stimulus package, if you will. And those security deferrals need to be repaid half just -- we just went through that, which is what helped us in terms of tailwind on balances, and the other half is next December 31. So that's something maybe to pencil in, which would provide some support to our balances next year as well.

簡單回顧一下，關於延期繳款，我想唐在演講中提到過，指的是社保稅延期繳納。現在大家每天都在經歷這些，就像我們一樣，但這確實是一項重要的刺激措施──可以說是經濟刺激計畫的一部分。這些社保稅延期繳納的款項需要償還一半——我們剛剛完成了這部分，這對我們帳戶餘額的改善起到了一定的幫助作用，另一半需要在明年12月31日之前償還。所以，這或許可以算是一筆支出，明年也能對我們的帳戶餘額起到一定的支撐作用。

Our next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Could you unpack demand trends looking at RUN, Workforce Now and Vantage HCM in the quarter? And what's embedded in your 12% to 16% ES bookings growth outlook? And as a follow-up, if you could comment on your recent announcement that you're expanding Workforce Now with international functionality, what sort of traction do you expect to see there?

您能否分析一下本季度 RUN、Workforce Now 和 Vantage HCM 的需求趨勢？您對 ES 預訂量成長 12% 至 16% 的預期背後有哪些因素？另外，您最近宣布將 Workforce Now 擴展國際功能，您預期這項功能會達到怎樣的市場反應？

Yes. This is Maria. Thank you for the questions, Dave. I'm happy to comment on both. With respect to the overall performance in the quarter, as was stated in the prepared remarks, we had strong double-digit growth that didn't really go across our scaled offerings, specifically in the downmarket. We saw the strength in our RUN platform. We saw the strength in our retirement solutions. Definitely experienced strength in the Workforce Now platform.

是的，我是瑪麗亞。謝謝你的提問，戴夫。我很樂意回答這兩個問題。關於本季的整體業績，正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中所述，我們實現了強勁的兩位數增長，但這種增長並非遍及我們所有規模化產品，尤其是在低端市場。我們的RUN平台和退休解決方案表現強勁，Workforce Now平台也表現出色。

And I'll cover off on your second question as well as we get to the press release that we just issued. Additionally, in the second quarter, we also saw strength in GlobalView. So very happy with our international contribution to the quarter. So that was really the strength across the double-digit growth that we saw in Employer Services.

關於您的第二個問題，我會在談到我們剛剛發布的新聞稿時一併解答。此外，第二季GlobalView業務也表現強勁。我們對本季度國際業務的貢獻非常滿意。這正是雇主服務業務實現兩位數成長的關鍵所在。

As it relates to the Workforce Now press release that I think we issued in the last couple of days regarding the offer that now is on a global basis, the ability for our U.S.-based and Canadian-based companies to process payrolls across -- on the Workforce Now platform across multiple countries, in partnership with our Celergo offering, very excited to have had this offer. As you can imagine, over the course of the last decade, but certainly in the last couple of years, the ability for mid-market customers to really be able to support international employees on their end is a growing demand. And we're pretty excited to be able to satisfy that demand with this new offer.

關於我們前幾天發布的 Workforce Now 新聞稿，我們宣布這項服務現已面向全球推出，使我們位於美國和加拿大的公司能夠透過 Workforce Now 平台，結合我們與 Celergo 的合作，在多個國家/地區處理薪資。我們非常高興能夠推出這項服務。正如您所想，在過去十年中，尤其是在最近幾年，中型市場客戶對能夠真正支持其國際員工的需求日益增長。我們很高興能夠透過這項新服務滿足這項需求。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Carlos, I think you talked about the improvement in retention against a still challenging environment overall. Can you maybe reconcile those comments a little bit? Because all things equal, I would say a tougher environment, maybe a little bit more pressure from a client perspective, but just can you unpack that a little bit?

卡洛斯，我記得你提到在整體環境依然充滿挑戰的情況下，客戶留存率有所提高。你能稍微解釋一下這些說法嗎？因為在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為環境更加艱難，客戶方面的壓力可能也更大一些，你能詳細解釋一下嗎？

Yes. I think what we've been saying for probably a few quarters now, it's really not -- maybe the tougher environment isn't the right term, it's tougher comparisons, right? Because I think we -- our thesis was that we've gotten some tailwind from the pandemic. There were a lot of tailwinds in a lot of areas, but one of them was in retention. There's less client switching. And on top of that, there was also lower bankruptcy rates in downmarket. And where it's a significant portion of the turnover of our clients is "out of business". So all government stimulus and all the low switching, I think, really elevated our retention.

是的。我認為我們過去幾個季度一直在強調的，其實並非——或許用“環境更嚴峻”這個詞不太準確，應該說是“比較基數更大”，對吧？因為我認為我們——我們的觀點是，疫情為我們帶來了一些利好。很多方面都受益匪淺，其中之一就是客戶留存率。客戶流失率降低了。此外，低迷市場的破產率也下降了。而我們客戶流失的主要原因是「倒閉」。所以，我認為，所有政府刺激措施以及客戶流失率的降低，都大大提升了我們的客戶留存率。

At the same time, our NPS scores and client satisfaction and all the feedback we're getting from clients is very, very strong. So frankly, it's difficult to separate the 2. So we planned for some moderation in our retention as a result of those tailwinds because those tailwinds are going to go away. I think they're economically driven. And we've seen a little bit of that in our downmarket.

同時，我們的淨推薦值 (NPS) 得分、客戶滿意度以及我們從客戶收到的所有回饋都非常非常高。坦白說，很難將這兩者分開。因此，我們計劃在客戶留存率方面做出一些調整，以應對這些利好因素，因為這些利多因素終將消失。我認為這主要是經濟因素驅動的。我們在低端市場已經看到了一些這種跡象。

I think we've also kind of alluded to that, that despite our continuing strong retention, it's kind of generally playing out the way we expected, which is our downmarket SBS is a little -- is down a little bit over the previous year, but other parts obviously are holding up well, if not improving. And the net of that is better than we expected and better than we had planned. And the question is, are we going to be able to hold on to all of it?

我想我們也已經暗示過，儘管我們的客戶留存率依然很高，但總體而言，情況基本上符合我們的預期，即我們的低端市場SBS業務比去年略有下降，但其他業務顯然保持良好，甚至有所增長。總的來說，情況比我們預期的要好，也比我們計畫的還要好。問題是，我們能否保持住所有這些優勢？

Our plan, of course, is to hold on to all of it. And that is why you saw in Don's comments that we're making sure we have the right levels of service, the right levels of implementation. Because if we can achieve the forecast we have for retention for the year, which will be ahead of what our plan and our expectations were, that has a meaningful impact on our long-term growth and value creation for the company.

當然，我們的計劃是守住所有這些優勢。正因如此，您才能從唐的評論中看到，我們正在確保提供適當的服務和執行到位。因為如果我們能夠實現今年的客戶留存率預期目標（這將超出我們的計劃和預期），這將對公司的長期成長和價值創造產生重大影響。

That's very helpful. And then I don't know if this would be Carlos or Don, but can you remind us just the rate sensitivity, 25 basis points, what that means? And then, I guess, I was surprised to see the boost in the extended investment strategy, just given, I thought, there was a little bit more of a lagged effect on that. So maybe just -- because obviously, it's been so long, we've been in front of a rate cycle, but just the dynamics of client funds relative to extended investment.

這很有幫助。我不知道這話應該由卡洛斯還是唐說，您能再解釋一下利率敏感度，也就是25個基點，這代表什麼嗎？還有，說實話，我有點驚訝地看到延伸投資策略的成長，因為我以為它的滯後效應會更大一些。所以，也許是因為——很顯然，我們已經領先於利率週期這麼久了，但客戶資金相對於延伸投資的動態變化可能有所不同。

Yes. Why don't I start with the second question first on the rates environment and what that means for us. So generally speaking, we -- as you know, when the fund balances increase rapidly, we have to invest in short-term items or short-term instruments until we have the opportunity to invest in longer-term instruments. And as a result, we don't see as much pickup as we would like to see.

是的。不如我先回答第二個問題，關於利率環境及其對我們的影響。一般來說，如您所知，當基金餘額快速成長時，我們必須投資於短期專案或短期工具，直到您有機會投資於長期工具。因此，我們並沒有看到預期中的成長。

But I can certainly give you some sensitivity with respect to, if we had a 25 basis point improvement in the rates in our short-term investments only, that would translate into about $9 million of EBIT on a 12-month basis. So not hugely significant. On the other hand, if we saw that, both in the short and in the intermediate term, that 25 basis points over a 12-month period would translate into about $23 million of impact before taxes. So certainly, that becomes meaningful.

但我可以具體說明一下，如果我們的短期投資利率只提高25個基點，那麼12個月內息稅前利潤（EBIT）大約會增加900萬美元。所以影響不算特別顯著。另一方面，如果我們看到短期和中期利率都提高25個基點，那麼12個月內息稅前利潤將增加約2,300萬美元。這當然就意義重大了。

So as we look to invest those funds longer term and as rates continue to go in what we'd say, I guess, we would say is a better direction, I think we have some opportunity in the future. But at this point in time, we think that we're not going to see a huge amount of improvement in the client fund interest over the balance of the second half. And what we have talked about is in the forecast today.

因此，當我們著眼於長期投資這些資金，並且利率繼續朝著我們認為更好的方向發展時，我認為未來會有一些機會。但就目前而言，我們認為在下半年剩餘時間內，客戶基金的投資興趣不會大幅增加。我們今天討論的內容也包含在預測中。

Kevin, could you clarify the question on the extended portion, where specifically your focus there?

凱文，你能否澄清一下擴展部分的問題，你具體關注的是什麼？

Yes. Just the -- I guess, the dynamics of the client funds interest revenue versus the extended investment strategy, what the timing difference is on those 2 in terms of when you'd see it? Because obviously, you saw a little bit of benefit from extended investment in terms of the outlook, not as much on the client fund side. But just was there a timing element to the extended versus the client funds?

是的。我只是想問——客戶資金利息收入與延期投資策略之間的動態關係，這兩者在何時產生收益方面是否存在時間差異？因為很明顯，從前景來看，延期投資帶來了一些好處，而客戶資金方面則沒有那麼明顯。那麼，延期投資和客戶資金之間是否存在時間上的差異呢？

Well, if you're talking about balance growth, the extended strategy balance growth is actually tied more to the volatility of cash flows on a year-to-year basis. So it has to do with our forecast of what our low balance is going to be in the year versus our average balance, which is a little bit different from the client funds forecast. So long term, yes, the extended balance would grow kind of in line with the client funds balance growth. But on a short-term year-to-year basis, there's a whole lot more noise. So that is actually driving the difference more so than the lag effect.

嗯，如果你指的是餘額增長，那麼擴展策略的餘額增長實際上更多地與現金流的年度波動性相關。這與我們預測的年度最低餘額和平均餘額有關，而平均餘額與客戶資金的預測略有不同。因此，從長期來看，擴展策略的餘額成長確實會與客戶資金的餘額成長基本一致。但從短期年度來看，存在更多不確定因素。因此，這才是造成差異的主要原因，而非滯後效應。

The lag effect that Don was referring to has more to do with the growth in the client funds balances. When they are particularly -- when the growth is particularly high, it's often hard for us to reinvest quickly, just given the number of opportunities there are in the market and so forth for the type of credit quality that we're seeking. But we, within a couple of quarters, can catch up. So it's just a question of how quickly we can deploy those additional funds.

唐提到的滯後效應更與客戶資金餘額的成長有關。當成長特別快時，考慮到市場上針對我們所尋求的信貸品質的投資機會眾多，我們往往很難迅速進行再投資。但我們通常可以在幾個季度內趕上。所以問題在於我們能以多快的速度部署這些額外的資金。

But I think the short answer is the net impact from our strategy because there's also a reclassing issue in terms of how we do it in terms of accounting and so forth. So I think the right -- the right way to look at it is really what's happening with yields, what's happening with -- overall, what's happening with balance growth and then what's the net impact of our strategy for client funds strategy.

但我認為簡而言之，關鍵在於我們策略的淨影響，因為在會計處理等方面仍有重新分類的問題。所以我認為，正確的看待方式應該是關注收益率的變化、整體資產餘額成長情況，以及我們策略對客戶資金的淨影響。

And I think, on that front, the short answer is it's looking pretty good. Like just as an example, our Q1 reinvestments were at about a 1% yield, so new purchases. And in Q2, they were 1.5%. So it's been -- you see the same thing we've seen. The moves in the 2 years and the 5 years are even more significant than the 10 years and so forth. So for us, it's the -- when we talk long, like our version of long is 3, 5, 7, not beyond that just because of the way we invest our portfolio. And on that front, this -- you could not have a better environment in terms of wage inflation, balance growth and increases in interest rates.

我認為，就這方面而言，簡而言之，情況相當不錯。舉個例子，我們第一季的再投資報酬率約為1%，也就是新購入的股票。第二季則達到了1.5%。所以，情況就和我們觀察到的一樣。 2年期和5年期的收益甚至比10年期及以後的收益更為顯著。因此，對我們來說，當我們談到長期投資時，我們通常認為3年、5年或7年是長期投資的期限，不會超過這個期限，這主要是因為我們投資組合的運作方式。就薪資成長、貨幣成長和利率上升而言，目前的情況可謂再好不過了。

So I would say, we're not ready to say anything yet about '23 and '24. But all this -- there's a lot of talk about mechanics in the short term or whatnot because I know a lot of people are focused on the short term. We're more long-term oriented, and we could be in here for a multiyear tailwind from -- finally from client funds interest in a meaningful way.

所以我想說，我們現在還不方便對2023年和2024年發表任何評論。但是，現在有很多關於短期機制之類的討論，因為我知道很多人都專注於短期利益。我們更注重長期發展，我們可能會迎來多年的利好——最終，客戶資金的投入將帶來實質的成長。

You're going to have a high-class margin problem, Carlos.

卡洛斯，你將會面臨一個非常棘手的利潤率問題。

Yes. Listen, I've been waiting 20 years. I lost -- I had hair when I started as CEO. And I remember telling the Treasurer at the time, rates have to go up next year. And then next year, I said rates have to go up next year. And here we are, but this time, (expletive) it, I'm right.

是的。聽著，我已經等了20年了。我剛當CEO的時候頭髮都掉光了。我記得當時跟財務主管說，明年利率必須上漲。然後第二年，我又說利率必須上漲。現在利率真的上漲了，但這次，去他媽的，我是對的。

Our next question comes from Tien-tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just really good results, better base control, looking at better retention, in-line bookings, raising balance growth and all the good stuff. Are these all -- I'll think of all these as positive forces for margin expansion, right? So you're keeping the margin the same as always. Is that just a function for the cost you discussed? Or is that some conservatism as well? Just trying to better understand that.

業績確實不錯，客戶基礎控制得更好了，客戶留存率也提高了，預訂量正常，餘額增長也提升了，等等等等。這些──我姑且把它們都看成是利潤率擴張的正面因素吧？所以你們的利潤率一直維持不變。這只是因為你們之前提到的成本問題嗎？還是也出於某種保守考量？我只是想更好地理解這一點。

Well, if the question is about conservatism, I'll let Don handle it.

如果問題是關於保守主義的，那就讓唐來處理吧。

Yes. So I think the answer is that we're -- we have a pretty reasonable forecast in front of us. So I think we're not being terribly conservative. But I think what you should consider, though, is that we raised our revenue by $150 million from the prior forecast. And we've also raised our expenses by $115 million.

是的。所以我認為答案是，我們目前有一個相當合理的預測。因此，我認為我們並沒有過於保守。但我認為您應該考慮到的是，我們的收入比之前的預測增加了1.5億美元，而支出也增加了1.15億美元。

And if you start to break down those expenses, that $115 million of expense increase, [it covered quickly] the PEO pass-throughs being $48 million of that. So those $48 million of that expense increase is really having a bit of a drag on our margins. Otherwise, I think our margins currently would be better.

如果仔細分析這些支出，就會發現這1.15億美元的支出成長中，很快就包含了4,800萬美元的PEO轉嫁費用。因此，這4800萬美元的支出成長確實對我們的利潤率造成了一定的拖累。否則，我認為我們目前的利潤率會更好。

But that's really what's preventing that, and that's the reason we have been able to do more on the margins. But I do think that we -- all in, we've done a really good job of baking things into our guidance and firming up the expectations we set.

但這正是阻礙我們實現目標的原因，也是我們能夠在其他方面做得更多的原因。但我確實認為，總的來說，我們已經很好地將各項因素納入了我們的業績指引，並明確了我們設定的預期。

Yes. No, for sure. No, for sure, that's very -- go ahead.

是的。不，當然。不，當然，這非常——請繼續。

And I think -- just one other thing. I think we should also add, I think just to your point in terms of tone, we want to make sure we're clear here that -- back to we're not insulated from the world, there's no question that there's pressure on costs, particularly around wages. And we are a technology services company, so we have costs around R&D and so forth. We also have costs around the service side of our business.

還有一點我想補充。關於您剛才提到的語氣問題，我們想明確一點——我們並非與世隔絕，毫無疑問，成本壓力巨大，尤其是在工資方面。我們是一家技術服務公司，因此研發等方面也存在成本。此外，我們業務的服務方面也存在成本。

And you heard in the prepared comments that Don mentioned that we've taken some actions that are, what I would call, mid-cycle. So not the typical annual wage increases because we felt we needed to do something to make sure that we held on to our people and that we were attracting the right kinds of people.

正如唐在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，我們採取了一些措施，我稱之為「週期中期」措施。這些措施並以非典型的年度加薪，因為我們覺得需要採取一些措施來留住員工，並吸引合適的人才。

So we are doing some things that -- now the good news on the other side of that coin, which I'm assuming will come up later as a question, but may as well address it now, like some other industries, but not every other industry, we do have a fair amount of -- and the industry has shown, demonstrated historically, and I think there are some recent signs from competitors that pricing is more elastic than in many industries. So this is not a commodity business. And there's a fair amount of room.

所以我們正在做一些事情——現在來說說硬幣的另一面，也是個好消息。我估計稍後會有人問到這個問題，但我現在不妨先談談。就像其他一些行業一樣（但並非所有行業都如此），我們確實擁有相當多的——而且這個行業已經證明，從歷史數據來看，我認為最近競爭對手的一些跡像也表明，價格彈性比許多其他行業都要大。所以這不是一個大宗商品產業。而且還有相當大的發展空間。

The problem is you have to exercise that room very carefully because you want to remain competitive and on and on and on. And you've heard that story from us for many years, too, right, that we really want to win in the market. We want high retention rates. So we can't just go around willy-nilly passing through price increases. But the fact is we can, and we will, if it's driven by market forces and cost increases that are experienced across the board. And we're confident that our competitors will do the same thing, and some of them already are.

問題在於，你必須非常謹慎地運用這個空間，因為你想保持競爭力等等。多年來，你也聽我們說過很多次了，對吧？我們真的想在市場中獲勝。我們想要高客戶留存率。所以我們不能隨意提價。但事實上，如果市場力量和成本普遍上漲，我們就可以而且將會漲價。我們相信我們的競爭對手也會這樣做，而且其中一些已經開始了。

Yes. You answered my follow-up on pricing.

是的，您已經回覆了我關於價格的後續問題。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

So I wanted to maybe circle back to the PEO business and the strength there. It continues to perform really well. I was curious, can you remind us, when we think about the source of new bookings for PEO, how much of it is new to ADP for the first time versus conversions of potentially existing customers in the SMB side of the base that you're upselling over to PEO? Just how should we think about the source of new bookings?

所以我想再回到PEO業務及其強勁表現的話題。它的表現一直都非常出色。我很好奇，您能否提醒我們一下，當我們考慮PEO新訂單的來源時，其中有多少是ADP的新客戶（首次使用ADP服務），又有多少是現有中小企業客戶群中潛在客戶轉化而來，然後您又向他們追加銷售PEO服務？我們該如何看待新訂單的來源？

I think it's been pretty consistent for a long time at around 50%, right?

我認為它長期以來一直穩定在 50% 左右，對吧？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes. It's about half that we've kind of mined our own. It's a combination of mining our own clients, but we also mine our own sales force. So our sales force is now able to kind of bring in, obviously, new clients straight on to the PEO, but we also have a very large installed base that we -- as you alluded to, we mine. I think it's 50-50, if I'm not mistaken. It hasn't really changed that much over the years.

是的。大約一半的客戶是我們自己開發的。這既包括我們自己開發的客戶，也包括我們銷售團隊的客戶。所以，我們的銷售團隊現在能夠直接為PEO（專業雇主組織）帶來新客戶，但我們也擁有龐大的客戶基礎——正如您所提到的，我們會從中挖掘客戶。如果我沒記錯的話，應該是五五開。這些年來，這種情況並沒有太大變化。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just as I think about the consolidation of the base onto one UI, there's clear user benefits to that. But how should we think about maybe -- is there a tailwind to that on the gross margin side as more and more of the base is on a single UI from a -- I guess, a service or a maintenance standpoint in terms of spend going forward? And how should we think about that unfolding on the gross margin line?

太好了，這很有幫助。我剛才想到將所有基礎功能整合到一個使用者介面上，這顯然對使用者有益。但是，隨著越來越多的基礎功能整合到同一個使用者介面上，從服務或維護的角度來看，這是否會對毛利率產生正面影響？我們該如何看待這種整合對毛利率的影響？

I think that's a fair point. There's a lot of things that we do that are intended to really "standardize", right, and to be able to get leverage. And this is clearly one of those where ADP historically was a little bit more fragmented in terms of our R&D. And we've been, starting with my predecessor, I think trying to become more kind of unified, et cetera.

我認為這很有道理。我們做很多事情的目的都是為了真正實現“標準化”，對吧？這樣才能獲得優勢。顯然，ADP的研發工作歷來比較分散，研發工作正是其中之一。從我的前任開始，我們就一直在努力變得更加團結等等。

And the user experience is one of those places where there was an obvious opportunity that I think will make us better competitively and allow us to invest our money more efficiently. And there clearly is some back-end benefit to that from a margin standpoint.

使用者體驗顯然是一個可以提升競爭力、更有效地利用資金的領域。從利潤率的角度來看，這顯然也會帶來一些後續收益。

But I would say we -- I'd be -- I don't think it would be true to say that, that was the primary driver. There's got to be some residual help from a margin standpoint and from an efficiency standpoint. But this is really about winning, about having the best products and having the best face to the market in terms of our -- the best skin, if you will, on each of our products.

但我認為——我——我不認為說這是主要驅動因素是事實。從利潤率和效率的角度來看，肯定還有一些其他因素的幫助。但真正的關鍵在於贏得市場，在於擁有最好的產品，並在市場上建立最佳形象——也就是說，我們每款產品都力求做到最好。

It makes a difference, as you know, like we get it. We're a technology company now, and it matters a lot, like the experience that our -- and it's not just our clients. It used to be 20, 30 years ago, it was only the clients. Now the employees of our clients are obviously touching and interacting with our products, especially with the mobile app. And this user experience stuff matters a lot in terms of engagement.

如您所知，這至關重要，我們深有體會。我們現在是一家科技公司，使用者體驗非常重要—而且不僅僅是我們的客戶。二三十年前，我們只關注客戶。現在，我們客戶的員工也經常接觸和使用我們的產品，尤其是行動應用。使用者體驗對於提升用戶參與度至關重要。

Great. Helpful. Congrats on a [sound set] of results.

太棒了，很有幫助。恭喜你取得如此出色的成果。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

I have a -- first one, a follow-up on retention. Can you dig in a little bit more about the underlying drivers? So out of business closures versus competitive switching behaviors. And when you think about the 40 basis point year-over-year decline you forecasted, how much is due to a pickup in that closure rate versus competitive losses?

我有一個問題——首先，是關於客戶留存率的後續問題。您能否更深入地探討一下背後的驅動因素？例如，企業倒閉和競爭對手的流失之間的差異。您預測的年減40個基點，其中有多少是因為企業倒閉率上升造成的，又有多少是因為競爭對手流失造成的？

Almost all of it is in the downmarket and related to normalization of economic factors like closure rates. I don't know that closure rate is the right word, but that was one of the -- that's in that category, what we call -- we track uncontrollable losses and controllable losses. Controllable losses would be around service and product, et cetera. Uncontrollable is the obvious, like bankruptcies, out of business, et cetera.

幾乎所有損失都發生在市場低迷時期，並且與經濟因素的正常化有關，例如倒閉率。我不確定「倒閉率」這個詞是否準確，但這屬於我們所說的「不可控損失」和「可控損失」的範疇。可控損失主要涉及服務和產品等方面。不可控損失則顯而易見，例如破產、倒閉等等。

And what happened during the pandemic, it wasn't just that bankruptcies went down, like just all the categories of uncontrollable losses went down. And there has been some normalization of that, not all the way back to pre pandemic, but I would say that there's really nothing that you can read into the numbers to tell you anything other than we have fantastic service, solid NPS scores. But there is some normalization in categories, specifically more downmarket. Everywhere else, I think our retention rates are good to improving and solid and, in many cases, better than prior years.

疫情期間發生的情況是，破產數量下降了，所有不可控損失類別都下降了。雖然這些損失已經恢復正常，但還沒有完全恢復到疫情前的水準。我認為，除了我們擁有卓越的服務和穩定的淨推薦值（NPS）得分之外，你無法從這些數據中得出任何其他結論。某些類別，特別是低端市場，確實出現了一些正常化跡象。而其他所有類別，我認為我們的客戶留存率都處於良好或上升階段，並且在許多情況下都優於往年。

And we have less tolerance in those other businesses because they're not economically sensitive. So we have less tolerance for the excuse that there's going to be normalization there because we now have a taste of what's possible in retention in the mid-market and in international and in -- although international has been strong all along, and in the upmarket. And we just want to maintain those retention levels, but it would be foolish in the downmarket to assume that there won't be some economic factors and normalization. That's what you see reflected in our forecast.

我們對其他業務的容忍度較低，因為它們對經濟波動並不敏感。所以我們對「市場會恢復正常」這種說法容忍度更低，因為我們現在已經嚐到了中端市場、國際市場以及高端市場（儘管國際市場一直表現強勁）客戶留存率的滋味。我們只想維持這些留存率，但在低端市場，如果假設不會受到經濟因素的影響，市場就不會恢復正常，那就太愚蠢了。這正是我們預測的體現。

Okay. Makes sense. And then just on the PEO strength. So the sequential increase in worksite employees is really notable here. Could you just dig in a little bit more? I heard the better units, so better retention, better bookings, but it does seem like there's been a release or a tipping point here around clients converting to this model. Can you just talk about that?

好的，明白了。然後我們再來談談PEO（專業雇主組織）的優勢。工作場所員工數量的持續成長確實非常顯著。能再深入探討一下嗎？我聽說更好的團隊意味著更高的員工留存率和更好的預訂量，但似乎客戶向這種模式轉型達到了轉折點。您能談談這方面嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think that we're thrilled, just to be clear, but let me just give you a few back to like these comparisons in the pandemic and noise. Part of our headwind in the PEO sales, which, by the way, were positive and were good, but not as good as the last year, I think we shared a little bit of color there that the average client size sold had come down a little bit. Wages weren't growing that much. So all those things have an impact more on the PEO than they do in ES, particularly in some of the ES units. Those things have all turned in the other direction now.

是的。我的意思是，說實話，我們非常高興，但我想先補充幾點，例如疫情期間的各種幹擾因素。我們PEO業務的銷售受到一些不利因素的影響，雖然整體來說還不錯，但不如去年。我想我們之前提到過，平均客戶規模略有下降，薪資成長也不明顯。所以，所有這些因素對PEO業務的影響比對ES業務的影響更大，尤其是對某些ES部門的影響。但現在情況已經完全逆轉了。

So the average size client is bigger in terms of clients sold. And that is meaningful. And then you have wage growth, which flows through the PEO. It doesn't flow through ES because the billing is not as a percent of wages, whereas in the PEO, it is. And so we do have a number of tailwinds that are also helping.

因此，就客戶數量而言，平均規模的客戶更大。這意義重大。此外，薪資成長也透過專業雇主組織 (PEO) 實現。薪資成長並未透過員工服務 (ES) 實現，因為 ES 的計費並非以薪資百分比計算，而 PEO 的計費是以薪資百分比計算的。因此，我們確實擁有諸多有利因素。

But the most important thing, which is maybe what you're alluding to, is the average worksite employee growth, which kind of cuts through the inflation and the wage growth and all that. And that's also robust, but that's getting assistance, like I just mentioned, from average size client being a little bit bigger in terms of new business bookings.

但最重要的一點，或許也是您所指的，是平均工作場所員工人數的成長，這在一定程度上排除了通貨膨脹、薪資成長等因素的影響。而且，這個成長勢頭也很強勁，但正如我剛才提到的，這得益於客戶平均規模的成長，尤其是新業務預訂量略有增加。

But again, that's great news, but it's a little bit of a normalization because it's actually back now. So it went down from where it pre pandemic, and now it's back up about to where it was pre pandemic. And hopefully, you get 1% to 2% growth going forward. But right now, it's more than just 1% to 2% growth.

不過，這當然是好消息，但也算是一種回歸正常化的過程，因為現在經濟實際上已經恢復了。疫情前經濟有所下滑，現在又回升到疫情前的水平。希望未來能維持1%到2%的成長。但就目前而言，成長幅度遠不止1%到2%。

Our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

I wanted to ask you about your HCM products and the cross-sell opportunity to -- into your base of payroll customers, sort of an update in terms of where you are there and whether you could potentially accelerate that process?

我想詢問貴公司的 HCM 產品以及向貴公司薪資客戶群交叉銷售的機會，希望能了解一下貴公司目前的情況，以及是否有可能加快這一進程？

Yes. So happy to comment on our HCM products and how our sellers go to market to drive the combination of new business bookings between new logos as well as add-on business or same products from an attach perspective. So as you can imagine, a lot of the investments that we've spoken about for several years in existing products, a lot of the investments that we're making into our existing platforms.

是的。我非常樂意談談我們的HCM產品，以及我們的銷售人員如何透過行銷來推動新客戶、附加業務或同類產品之間的業務成長。正如您所想，我們多年來一直在現有產品上投入大量資金，而這些資金也正用於我們現有的平台。

We just talked about the new U.S. and the impact that's making in our downmarket and will continue to be, coupled with the investments that we're making into our Next Gen products, are all investments that are anchored in the belief that we can continue to expand the offerings to our existing clients as well as new clients. So excited about the execution on each one of these initiatives and the impact that will make to our bookings and mix of bookings between new logos and HCM product attach.

我們剛剛討論了美國市場的新變化及其對我們下行市場的影響，以及這種影響將持續下去的趨勢。此外，我們也在下一代產品方面進行投資，所有這些投資都基於一個信念：我們可以繼續拓展服務範圍，並惠及現有客戶和新客戶。我對每項舉措的執行情況以及它們將對我們的訂單量和新客戶及HCM產品附加訂單組合產生的影響感到非常興奮。

I mean, our attach rates in general are pretty good on some -- particularly in some categories like -- we said this before, like our workforce management. We used to call it time and labor, but those products tend to have high attach rates. And others have high attach rates, others have low attach rates. I think part of our opportunity for whatever the years to come is to not only sell new logos, which we're now obsessed about because we want to grow market share, but share of wallet is a huge opportunity for us. So the fact is like we have very low base penetration still in many of our categories in many of our products.

我的意思是，總體而言，我們的附加率在某些方面相當不錯——尤其是在某些類別，例如我們之前提到的勞動力管理產品。我們以前稱之為時間和勞動力管理產品，但這些產品的附加率往往很高。其他產品的附加率也很高，而有些產品的附加率則很低。我認為，未來幾年，我們的機會不僅在於銷售新客戶（我們現在非常重視這一點，因為我們想擴大市場份額），還在於提升客戶的錢包份額，這對我們來說也是一個巨大的機會。所以，事實是，我們在許多產品類別中的滲透率仍然很低。

Interesting. Okay. And a follow-up for me is on M&A and balance sheet deployment here. Obviously, a lot of the valuation multiples in the sector are holding quite a bit. I don't know if the environment has created a situation where maybe you had a shopping list, a dream shopping list that maybe now you can go after that you couldn't before. But maybe an update on whether -- on your capital allocation and just specifically as it relates to M&A plans would be helpful.

有意思。好的。我還有一個後續問題，是關於併購和資產負債表部署的。顯然，該產業許多公司的估值倍數都相當穩定。我不知道當前的環境是否讓您有機會去實現之前無法實現的收購目標。或許，您能更新一下資本配置情況，特別是與併購計畫相關的情況，這將會很有幫助。

Yes. So I think that there's always things flowing across everybody's desk and evaluations being done of opportunities, et cetera. And while it's true that the last few weeks haven't been kind to some companies, I don't think we've really changed our objectives. And our objective is to make sure that anything that we seriously consider and we pursue has to fit the portfolio.

是的。所以我覺得大家的辦公桌上總是會收到各種各樣的訊息，需要對各種機會進行評估等等。雖然過去幾週對一些公司來說確實不太友好，但我認為我們的目標並沒有真正改變。我們的目標是確保我們認真考慮並最終推進的任何項目都必須符合我們的投資組合。

So whether it's -- it just has to be either a geography extension that we currently have or it has to be something that's filling a product niche. And so we're going to continue to work by those guidelines, if you will. And if things become more affordable and something falls into those categories, certainly, we'll take the opportunity to look more seriously or to look a bit harder than we might have, say, 3, 4 months ago. I don't know, Carlos, do you want to explain?

所以，它要嘛必須是我們現有業務的地域延伸，要嘛必須是能夠填補產品空白的產品。我們會繼續遵循這些原則。如果價格更親民，某款產品符合這些條件，我們當然會抓住機會，比三、四個月前更認真地考察一番。卡洛斯，你想解釋一下嗎？

No, no. All I was thinking was that, in some cases, if people pay us, we'll buy their companies. And then we can clean them up.

不，不。我當時的想法是，在某些情況下，如果有人付錢給我們，我們就會收購他們的公司。然後我們就可以把它們整頓好。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Congratulations on the quarter. I was wondering, could you give us a couple of updates with regards to some of the products? So in terms of Next Generation Pay, to what extent has that been further rolled out? What's the update there?

恭喜您本季業績出色。我想請教一下，能否介紹一下部分產品的最新進展？例如，下一代支付系統（Next Generation Pay）的推廣情況如何？目前有什麼最新進展？

I mean, I would say we had a really good, I think, first -- I would call it, year-end. Because when you get to the mid-market, which is Next Gen Pay, as you know, right now, is really being sold in a portion of what we call the core part of the mid-market, so call it 50 to 150. And I think we're selling somewhere between 20%, 25% of our clients of our new business is coming in on the new platform. We expect to be GA, I think it's end of calendar?

我的意思是，我覺得我們上個年末——或者說，上個年末——表現非常不錯。因為如你所知，目前面向中端市場的下一代支付系統（Next Gen Pay）實際上只占我們所說的中端市場核心部分（大約50到150家）的一小部分。我認為，我們新業務的客戶中，大約有20%到25%是透過新平台加入的。我們預計正式版（GA）會在年底前發布，對嗎？

Calendar year.

日曆年。

End of calendar year. So that's kind of what we talked about at Investor Day. And I would say that, like call it, December, January sales season because a lot of those clients, they want to start clean, right, on January 1. So it's a fairly important point of the year in terms of judging kind of where you're doing -- where you are in terms of sales results and so forth. And we had a fairly good, I think, a number of starts. We were happy, I would say, with the early January, late December, what I would call, starts results.

年底到了。這就是我們在投資者日上討論的內容。我會把這段時間稱為十二月到一月的銷售旺季，因為很多顧客都希望在1月1日重新開始。所以，從評估你的業績——包括銷售結果等等——來看，這是一年中相當重要的節點。我認為，我們有很多客戶都順利啟動了新業務。我對一月初到十二月底這段時間的業績感到滿意。

In other words, those are clients that we sold previously that we then got -- now we got started, we have up and running. So we're not -- we're trying to avoid getting the specifics of how many clients in every quarter you guys are going to ask us. But I'd say that that's going really well and we're on track for this GA by the end of the calendar quarter, and that we had a good start season for end of December, beginning of January.

換句話說，這些是我們之前賣出去的客戶，現在我們已經開始運營，一切都步入正軌了。所以我們不想透露你們肯定會問的每季具體的客戶數量。但我可以說，一切進展順利，我們預計在本季末完成這項全面推廣，而且我們在12月底到1月初的開局也相當不錯。

That's great. And then it sounds like one of the early comments that you gave, Carlos, was highlighting just the breadth, talking about how Roll is doing on the low end and then also mentioning that with 1 client, you had 1 million transactions in a single day, which is obviously impressive.

太好了。卡洛斯，聽起來你早期的評論之一就是強調了業務的廣度，談到Roll在低端市場的表現，然後又提到你們僅憑一個客戶就在一天內完成了100萬筆交易，這顯然令人印象深刻。

Can you just give us a sense for like in terms of Roll, how much is that -- now that you've had some experience with it, how much more excited are you about that possibility and penetrating that micro part of the market? And then on the flip side, with the capabilities of being able to service companies globally and at a huge scale, how does that expand the top end of the market?

您能否簡單談談Roll的前景？現在您已經累積了一些經驗，您對這種可能性以及打入這個細分市場有多大期待？另一方面，憑藉為全球企業提供大規模服務的能力，這將如何拓展高端市場？

Yes. I mean, as you know, we do -- we're a little bit different than most in the sense that we're 100% all-in on HCM, and we cut across multiple segments and also geographies, so that makes us a little bit unique. So you have to get excited within segment because -- like Roll is really exciting, and we're excited about that opportunity, but that is in that [marketing] segment.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知，我們與大多數公司略有不同，因為我們100%專注於人力資本管理（HCM），而且我們的業務遍及多個細分市場和地區，這使我們獨樹一幟。所以你必須對細分市場感到興奮，因為——比如Roll就非常令人興奮，我們對這個機會感到興奮，但它屬於[市場營銷]細分市場。

Because if you take the other extreme example of the other client, like when we process 1 million -- like that client obviously has 1 million employees, and we process their payroll, and we process 1 million paychecks on 1 day, that's a lot of small Roll clients to make up for that. So they're excited about that, but Roll is excited about its role in the growth of ADP and in the marketplace in terms of our ability to compete and to create opportunities for us.

因為如果你舉另一個極端的例子，比如我們處理100萬筆業務——這個客戶顯然有100萬名員工，我們負責處理他們的工資，一天之內處理100萬張工資單——那麼Roll就需要處理很多小型客戶的業務才能彌補這部分業務量。所以他們對此感到興奮，而Roll也對自身在ADP發展和市場競爭中所扮演的角色感到興奮，因為這能提升我們的競爭力，並為我們創造更多機會。

So it's a little hard to compare. I guess, it's like when you have multiple children, you have to love them all, and they're all good looking and smart and so forth. And I think that's the way I feel about Roll in the downmarket versus the upmarket versus global view. I mean they really are all, I think, performing quite well now. And I think we're excited about the opportunity in each of those markets separately.

所以很難直接比較。我覺得這就像你有好幾個孩子，你必須愛他們每一個人，他們都長得好看、聰明等等。我對Roll在低階市場、高階市場和全球市場的表現也有類似的感受。我的意思是，它們現在的表現都相當不錯。而且我認為我們對每個市場的發展機會都感到非常興奮。

I'm trying not to give you a nonanswer answer, but I think that's -- I'm trying my hardest to give you something concrete, but it's exciting because these are all -- I mean the growth rate, Danny won't allow me to say it because -- as we were preparing for the call, if we were a start-up, we would be quoting growth rates for Roll that would make your eyes roll. But Danny won't let me say it because it's really, frankly, insignificant to a $15 billion company today, but it won't be insignificant in 5 or 10 years.

我盡量不給你模棱兩可的答案，但我認為——我正在盡我所能給你一些具體的信息，這很令人興奮，因為這些都是——我是說增長率，丹尼不讓我說，因為——在我們準備這次電話會議的時候，如果我們是一家初創公司，我們可能會說出一些讓你瞠目結舌的Roll增長率。但丹尼不讓我說，因為坦白講，對於一家市值150億美元的公司來說，這在今天真的微不足道，但在5年或10年後，它就意義重大了。

I guess, that's what I was getting at was just on the -- for example, in terms of Roll, when you first introduced it, you talked about it in a more modest manner. But it sounds like it's getting really good traction. So I was just wondering if there was some way to capture how you're thinking about how big that could eventually be.

我想，我真正想表達的是──比如，就Roll而言，你最初介紹它的時候，語氣比較謙虛。但聽起來它現在發展勢頭很強勁。所以我只是想知道，有沒有什麼方法可以表達你對它最終發展規模的看法。

It's definitely getting good traction. We're definitely excited about it. But again, you shouldn't over -- I'm not trying to overplay it because we have a very large organization. And you guys need to think about like how all the pieces fit together so that it fits into our forecast.

它確實進展順利，我們對此感到非常興奮。但話說回來，你們也不該過度樂觀──我不是想誇大其詞，因為我們公司規模非常龐大。你們需要考慮所有環節如何銜接，才能使其符合我們的期望。

And just from a dollar impact, I mean, I hate to go back to that, that product and that segment competes against certain competitors. We feel pretty good about what we're going to be able to do there in terms of market share and growth, et cetera. But you should not be thinking about this as something that's going to move ADP's growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points on the top line in the next year or 2. It's just not -- that's not the way the math works. I wish it did.

就美元影響而言，我的意思是，我不想再談這個了，那個產品和那個細分市場要和某些競爭對手競爭。我們對在市場佔有率和成長等方面能夠取得的成績相當有信心。但你不應該認為這會在未來一兩年內將ADP的營收成長率提高1到2個百分點。事實並非如此——數學計算並非如此。我希望如此。

All of these things have to work together. Next Gen Payroll, Next Gen HCM, Roll, GlobalView, Celergo, there are a lot of things, PEO, that have to come together for us to get to the numbers. And we like that. Where I think a portfolio that, as you've seen, we manage pretty effectively and the combination of all of those businesses having good success, some more than others at times, I think, leads to the results that we are reporting and forecasting.

所有這些環節都必須協同運作。 Next Gen Payroll、Next Gen HCM、Roll、GlobalView、Celergo，還有許多其他PEO（專業雇主組織）服務，它們必須齊心協力，我們才能達成目標。我們喜歡這種協同運作。如您所見，我們有效地管理一個投資組合，而所有這些業務都取得了良好的成功（儘管有些業務的成功程度不盡相同），我認為正是這種協同運作最終帶來了我們目前報告和預測的業績。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Eugene Simuni。

Congrats on another strong quarter, guys. I wanted to ask about Wisely and your kind of general personal finance product strategy. So you highlighted the Bill Pay offering in your prepared remarks. Can you just remind us what are the next big milestones for this overall strategy?

恭喜各位又一個季度業績出色！我想問關於Wisely以及你們整體的個人理財產品策略。你們在事先準備好的發言稿中重點提到了帳單支付功能。能否再簡單介紹一下這項整體策略的下一個重要里程碑？

And I know it's a small part of your portfolio, but will you, at some point, maybe start providing some metrics that can help us track the growth of this area like some businesses like that provides, such as number of cardholders, frequency of transactions, the amount spent and so on.

我知道這只是您投資組合的一小部分，但您是否可以在某個時候開始提供一些指標，幫助我們追蹤這方面的成長，就像一些類似的企業提供的那樣，例如持卡人數量、交易頻率、消費金額等等。

Yes. So happy to comment on the overall Wisely product strategy and where we're heading with the opportunity that's incredibly exciting for us. And then we can talk through what those metrics could be to have to give some solid basis of growth over time.

是的。我非常樂意就Wisely的整體產品策略以及我們未來的發展方向發表意見，這對我們來說是一個無比令人興奮的機會。之後，我們可以探討哪些指標能夠為未來的成長奠定堅實的基礎。

As it relates to the overall myWisely app and the strategy we have within the Wisely portfolio, it is really a strategy that is anchored in financial management. That financial management in the app happens through education, budgeting, savings tools, rewards.

就 myWisely 應用整體以及我們在 Wisely 產品組合中的策略而言，其核心在於財務管理。應用中的財務管理是透過教育、預算、儲蓄工具和獎勵來實現的。

What you heard today, which you just mentioned as well, which is the launch of our Bill Pay feature, we believe it's significant. This is exactly what we all probably use with respect to any type of an online bill pay, where you can scan the check and actually facilitate end-to-end bill processing through a mobile device. And so that is all part of the myWisely app and the overall financial management strategy, think financial wellness, et cetera, that we've employed.

今天您聽到的，也是您剛才提到的，我們推出了帳單支付功能，我們認為這意義重大。這項功能正是我們日常線上支付帳單的方式：掃描支票，即可透過行動裝置完成端到端的帳單處理。這都是myWisely應用程式以及我們所採用的整體財務管理策略（例如財務健康等）的一部分。

In addition to that, the other thing that's worth coming is the launch of our Early Wage Access, or EWA, as we refer to, which is really that ability for our clients, employees, our employees to gain access to wages that they've earned as they earn them. So this is also a big piece to the overall equation with respect to the overall Wisely, things that we're monitoring actively right now back to kind of the question around how many cardholders, et cetera, certainly, we're looking at that.

除此之外，另一個值得關注的事情是我們推出的「提前支取薪資」（Early Wage Access，簡稱EWA）服務。這項服務旨在讓我們的客戶和員工提前支取他們已賺取的薪水。這對Wisely的整體發展而言也是至關重要的，我們目前正積極關注持卡人數量等議題。

We're looking at other types of -- what type of cardholders are using what feature functionality. There is some data that you could look at as it relates to how many reviews we have on the app, the quality of the app, certainly supersedes some of the competition in the space. I'm pretty proud of the impact that our financial wellness tool, myWisely app, is creating in the market. But I'll let Danny and Carlos kind of comment on cardholder tracking and when it will [flip back].

我們正在研究其他類型的使用者—哪些類型的持卡人正在使用哪些功能。您可以查看一些數據，例如我們應用程式的評論數量和質量，我們的應用程式無疑超越了該領域的一些競爭對手。我為我們的財務健康工具 myWisely 應用程式在市場上的影響力感到非常自豪。至於持卡人追蹤以及何時恢復正常，我會讓 Danny 和 Carlos 來談談。

Yes. I think we'll -- I mean, it's a takeaway for us. We'll see if there's something else that we -- I mean, we're always open to suggestions and trying to be open-minded about disclosure. But again, this is not the same as the conversation about Roll. But as excited as we are about Wisely, we're equally excited about things like Roll. And Wisely is much bigger than Roll.

是的。我想我們會——我的意思是，這對我們來說是一個重要的啟示。我們會看看是否還有其他需要注意的地方——我的意思是，我們始終樂於接受建議，並努力保持開放的心態去披露資訊。但再次強調，這與關於Roll的討論並不相同。儘管我們對Wisely充滿熱情，但我們對Roll這樣的計畫也同樣充滿熱情。而且Wisely的規模遠大於Roll。

But again, relative -- I hate to be a broken record, but relative to the size of ADP, it wouldn't be at the top of the list of the things that are going to drive the overall results. Because, again, we're a portfolio of so many different things that have to go right and that we have to get right in order to get growth on $15 billion.

但話說回來，這是相對而言——我不想老生常談，但相對於ADP的規模而言，它並非推動整體業績成長的首要因素。因為，我們擁有一個包含眾多不同業務的投資組合，這些業務都必須運作良好，而且我們必須確保它們都運作良好，才能實現150億美元的成長。

I mean, I think that business is probably -- I'm trying to do the math in my head. It's like 2%, 3% or smaller in terms of total -- actually, smaller than that even in terms of revenue. So by the way, we want that, and it is growing faster than the line average. All the things you're asking about are relevant, and those things would all help the overall growth rate of ADP. But it would be misleading because I think others might have done that where they make a bigger deal out of it than it really is.

我的意思是，我覺得這部分業務可能——我正在心裡估​​算一下——就總業務量而言，大概只佔2%、3%甚至更少——實際上，即使就收入而言，也比這還要少。順便說一句，我們想要這部分業務，而且它的成長速度確實高於平均水平。你問的這些問題都很重要，而且這些因素都會有助於ADP的整體成長率。但我認為，如果把這部分業務看得比實際情況更嚴重，那就具有誤導性了。

And maybe relative to their companies, it is a big deal. Relative to us, we have lots of other things that we have to do and that have to go right. And us trying to pretend that if we tell you is how much we get per card and then we start giving you math, that if 100% of our clients got on the card, this is how much money we would have, I mean, we don't need to do that because that's just distracting and silly. Because, first of all, it's not going to happen. We're not going to get 100% overnight, and it could take some time anyway.

或許對他們的公司來說，這的確是件大事。但對我們來說，我們還有很多其他事情要做，而且這些事情必須順利進行。如果我們告訴你每張卡我們能賺多少錢，然後開始計算，假設我們所有客戶都辦了卡，我們能賺多少錢——我的意思是，我們沒必要這麼做，因為這只會分散注意力，而且很愚蠢。首先，這根本不可能實現。我們不可能一夕之間就達到100%的客戶使用率，而且這本身也需要一些時間。

But we will take that away and think about what, if anything, we can do to give you a little more substance around the progress around Wisely because it's exciting. And we're happy about it. But it's not -- there are other parts of our disclosure that would give you more indication like the things we've been talking about, pays per control, new business bookings, overall. All those things, overall, are bigger drivers of our results.

但我們會把這些資訊放在一邊，思考如何才能更詳細地向您介紹Wisely的最新進展，因為這確實令人振奮，我們也為此感到高興。不過，我們揭露的資訊中還有其他部分能提供更多線索，例如我們一直在討論的按控制付費、新業務預訂量等等。總的來說，這些因素才是我們業績的主要動力。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

Most of my questions have been answered, but I wanted to talk just a little bit about or ask about strategy. And in the past, you've mentioned customer service capabilities being a differentiator related to SaaS players. How should we think about the persistence of differentiated service levels as your own AI capability grows in importance?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我還想稍微談談或問一些關於策略方面的問題。您之前曾提到客戶服務能力是SaaS廠商的差異化優勢。隨著貴公司自身人工智慧能力的重要性日益凸顯，我們該如何看待差異化服務水準的持續性？

And when we look at the future of self-service initiatives may cause your own services and service levels look more like a traditional SaaS players, I guess, I'm just wondering like how we should be thinking about that strategically and what the implications are in the business? I recognize it probably fits well within a few of your most recent comments just like it takes a while to move the needle, but would love to get a sense of where you think you're going in those areas.

當我們展望自助服務計畫的未來時，可能會發現貴公司的服務和營運水準更接近傳統的SaaS廠商。我想知道我們應該如何從策略角度思考這個問題，以及這對業務會有哪些影響？我知道這可能與您最近的一些評論不謀而合，例如“取得進展需要時間”，但我很想了解您在這些領域的發展方向。

It's a great question because we -- that's a topic that comes up not just among the management team, but also from the Board because we clearly see the opportunity there. And again, we have a couple of advantages coming out of the gate. Like we obviously have a lot of data. So we have a lot of information that can be used to provide, I think, more automated, if you will, whether it's AI, machine learning, you can -- whatever term you want to use for it, you have to have information, right, to be able to then monetize that or turn it into a value add for the clients, which then can be monetized.

這是一個很好的問題，因為這不僅是管理團隊討論的話題，也是董事會討論的話題，因為我們清楚地看到了其中的機會。而且，我們一開始就擁有一些優勢。例如，我們顯然擁有大量數據。因此，我們掌握著大量信息，這些信息可以用來提供更自動化的服務，無論是人工智能、機器學習，還是其他任何術語，你都必須擁有信息，才能將其貨幣化，或者將其轉化為客戶的增值服務，而這些增值服務最終也可以變現。

So we spent a fair amount of time on that. We've actually recently appointed someone to be kind of our Chief Data officer, who's kind of what we're seeing and owning kind of all of our data and then how we can marshal those resources to create the kinds of advantages that you're talking about, which really advantages for our clients so that we can be able to hold on to them longer, sell them more things, et cetera, et cetera.

所以我們在這方面花了不少時間。事實上，我們最近任命了一位首席數據官，他/她負責管理我們所有的數據，以及如何調動這些資源來創造您提到的那種優勢，這些優勢實際上是為我們的客戶帶來的，這樣我們就能留住他們更長時間，向他們銷售更多產品等等。

So we think everything from like the simplest things like chat box to real, true AI, I think, are things that we have already deployed and I think are in the process of kind of growing and scaling, if you will, to take advantage of. And I think some of those you've seen around press releases, and we talked about some of them on Investor Day, but clearly, there's a lot more opportunity in front of us than what we've already done in that area.

所以我們認為，從最簡單的聊天框到真正的人工智慧，我們已經部署了所有這些功能，並且正在不斷發展和擴展，以充分利用它們的優勢。我想你們已經在新聞稿中看到過其中一些，我們也曾在投資者日上討論過一些，但顯然，在這個領域，我們面前還有比我們目前所取得的成就更大的機會。

So I would say that, that's a great question and a substantial opportunity for us that, like to the previous point about disclosure, we have to find a better way of giving more guidance or more disclosure around how that's going and how it's being leveraged. Because it's going to be meaningful, I think, over the next 5 to 10 years for ADP.

所以我認為，這是一個很好的問題，也是我們面臨的重要機會。就像之前提到的資訊揭露問題一樣，我們必須找到更好的方法，就進展和利用方式提供更多指導或資訊揭露。因為我認為這對ADP來說，在未來5到10年內意義重大。

We have time for 1 more question, and that question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題，這個問題來自美國銀行的傑森庫柏伯格。

I just wanted to start with the EPS guidance for fiscal '22. I guess we're going up 1% at the midpoint, so call it, $0.06. And so just breaking that down, it looks like the raise in the float income expectations is about $0.04 of that and presumably the rest [of your] revenue outlook. I just wanted to see if that math is correct.

我想先問一下2022財年的每股盈餘預期。我估計中位數會上調1%，也就是0.06美元。那麼，具體來說，浮動收益預期上調了約0.04美元，其餘部分大概也包含在你們的營收預期裡。我只是想確認一下這個計算是否正確。

That sounds pretty good. I think that the theme -- I think, whether that's exactly right or not, the theme you should hear is -- I mean, it's maybe a bad thing to end the call with, but you should understand that the second -- we are investing, and this is not the first time you've heard this from ADP. The opportunity in front of us is big, like our bookings are growing, the economy is growing robustly. Despite the noise in terms of the stock market and so forth, this is a really good environment for us.

聽起來不錯。我認為——不管這麼說是否完全正確——你應該聽到的主題是——我的意思是，用這個來結束電話會議可能不太好，但你應該明白，第二點是——我們正在投資，而且這也不是你第一次從ADP聽到這個說法了。我們面前的機會很大，例如我們的預訂量正在成長，經濟成長強勁。儘管股市等方面存在一些波動，但對我們來說，這是一個非常好的環境。

And so we are preparing ourselves, and you should expect that, that is going to lead to kind of long-term improvement in, hopefully, our growth rates and in our margins and so forth. So just don't get distracted by the short-term noise. Because I think that the implication is it doesn't seem like we raised the rest of our -- whatever profit by much.

所以我們正在積極準備，你們應該預料到，這將帶來長期的改善，希望能夠提升我們的成長率、利潤率等等。所以不要被短期波動所迷惑。因為我認為這暗示著，我們似乎並沒有大幅提高其他方面的利潤。

The answer is you're probably right, but it's all the things we've been talking about during the call, which is -- we're making sure that we keep up with the market in terms of wage growth, but we have price levers that we haven't necessarily hit yet because we're not a panicky company. Like we're not going to like, tomorrow, do an unplanned price increase to our base.

答案很可能是，你說的沒錯，但這正是我們在電話會議中一直在討論的那些內容——我們正在確保工資增長與市場保持同步，但我們還有一些價格槓桿尚未啟用，因為我們不是一家恐慌的公司。例如，我們不會明天就突然提高基礎工資。

But we have times that are natural and normal where we will do that. But we're not going to wait to take action on wages and hiring and so forth until we get there because that doesn't make sense. We're not some [shwacky] little company that needs to panic. So we're going to do the right things. And if there's a timing -- a missed timing by a quarter or 2, so be it. We think it's still pretty damn good.

但我們也會在自然而然的正常時期這樣做。不過，我們不會等到那時才採取行動，例如提高薪資、招募等等，因為那樣沒意義。我們不是那種需要驚慌失措的小公司。所以我們會做正確的事。如果時機不對——就算晚了一兩個季度，那也沒關係。我們認為現在的情況仍然相當不錯。

Like when you think about the inflationary pressures we have and the fact that we're still able to kind of deliver the results that we are delivering and able to grow the way we're delivering, we're pretty damn proud of it. But admittedly, we're feeling more pressure on the expenses now than we definitely saw, call it, 18 months ago, right? It's the opposite. And this is what happens in "comparisons".

想想我們面臨的通膨壓力，以及我們仍然能夠取得目前的業績並保持目前的成長速度，我們真的為此感到非常自豪。但不得不承認，我們現在感受到的支出壓力比大約18個月前大得多，對吧？情況恰恰相反。這就是「比較」帶來的影響。

And when you "lap" things and all that stuff that you guys like to look at, like the pandemic hit, and our expenses went down because we were very careful and very frugal and very stingy in terms of hiring and so forth, and our revenues never came down as much as everyone thought and as we thought. And then we now have to go back up and make sure that we're staffed. And at the same time, wages started to increase, so we have to now factor that into the picture. But we're feeling pretty (expletive) good about our execution and how we're doing. But that is the way the numbers add up is the way you described it.

就像你們喜歡分析的那些“數據”，比如疫情爆發，我們的開支下降了，因為我們在招聘等方面非常謹慎、節儉，而且非常吝嗇，但我們的收入並沒有像大家預想的那樣大幅下降。現在我們必須恢復正常運營，確保人員配備充足。同時，薪水也開始上漲，所以我們現在必須把這些因素考慮進去。不過，我們對目前的執行情況和營運狀況感覺相當不錯。正如你所描述的，這就是數字計算的結果。

Okay. No, those are [good] points. Just last one for me. I wanted to see if you could elaborate a little bit on the competitive landscape, just what you're seeing downmarket, mid-market, enterprise-wide. Interested in just any changes in the mix or the aggressiveness of any competitors across the spectrum.

好的。你說的都很有道理。我最後一個問題。我想請你詳細說說競爭格局，包括你觀察到的低端市場、中端市場以及企業級市場的情況。我對各個細分市場中競爭對手的組成變化或攻勢變化都很感興趣。

Again, because we compete in so many different segments, there's not -- I don't think it's a broad sweeping -- I mean some of our competitors only compete with us in 1 segment, so it's hard to make a sweeping statement other than I think it's business as usual. That may not be very exciting. But I don't see -- I don't know, Maria, if you see any -- there's been no -- I mean, I think we look at our balance of trade. We're pretty happy about a couple of people that we've been more focused on recently than maybe before, which we're now doing better than before on.

再說一遍，因為我們涉足的領域非常廣泛，所以很難一概而論——我的意思是，有些競爭對手只在一個領域與我們競爭，所以除了「一切照舊」之外，很難做出什麼概括性的結論。這可能聽起來沒什麼意義。但我沒看到——瑪麗亞，我不知道你是否看到了什麼——目前為止沒有——我的意思是，我認為我們應該專注於貿易平衡。我們很高興看到最近我們比以往更加關注的幾家公司，現在我們在這些公司的工作進展比以前更好。

But as usual, then there's others that are now gaining ground on us. But I'd say that the general environment is stable and that the -- what is it, the rising tide is lifting all boats. It feels like the industry, overall, has a lot of, I don't know, growth opportunity, and we're all getting our fair share and trying to feel each other's share. But it's a good environment. I don't know if you have anything.

但和往常一樣，現在有其他公司在迎頭趕上。不過我覺得整體環境很穩定，就像水漲船高，大家都受益匪淺。感覺整個產業有很多發展機會，我們都在努力爭取應得的份額，也在努力從彼此的利益中分一杯羹。總之，現在的環境很好。不知道你有什麼想法。

I would concur.I would echo the sentiment on the overall HCM space and the environment. And I don't think anything materially changed, but we certainly intend to continue to win our fair share and more.

我同意。我對整個人力資本管理領域和環境的看法與此一致。我認為實質的變化並不大，但我們當然會繼續爭取我們應得的份額，甚至更多。

This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I am pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我很高興將節目交給卡洛斯·羅德里格斯先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you. I would just -- just back to like the general economic conditions and what's happening in the market and so forth, which is nothing that we focus on, on a day-to-day basis. But the one -- some of the things we did have a little bit of a discussion and some questions on capital allocation and structure and so forth that I would just -- I can't help, but I'm obsessed with the dividend. And I love how no one asked about the dividend. Nobody cares about the dividend.

謝謝。我只想說，回到整體經濟狀況和市場動態等等，這些都不是我們日常關注的重點。不過，我們確實就資本配置和結構等方面進行了一些討論和提問，我忍不住要說，我對股息問題非常在意。我很高興沒有人問到股息。似乎沒人關心股息。

But we may be entering an environment where it might matter again. So maybe someday, I'll get a question about the dividend because I think we're in our 47th year of consecutive increases in the dividend. And I think if you go back 10 years and you look at what our -- the cost basis of the stock was and what the dividend yield, given today's dividend, is on that cost basis 5, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, 20 years ago, this company is a money machine.

但我們可能正進入一個股息問題再次變得重要的環境。所以也許有一天，我會收到關於股息的問題，因為我認為我們已經連續47年提高了股息。我認為，如果你回顧過去10年，看看我們股票的成本基礎，以及在當前股息水準下，5年前、10年前、15年前、20年前的股息殖利率，你會發現這家公司簡直就是一台賺錢機器。

And so -- and clearly, capital gains are important, too, but the focus changes, obviously, as the market environment changes. And listen, I'm not wishing a downdraft in the market. It hurts us as much as it hurts anyone else. But I like where ADP is positioned competitively, and I like where we're positioned in terms of our balance sheet, our dividend and our -- and the way we allocate capital.

所以——當然，資本利得也很重要，但隨著市場環境的變化，關注點自然也會隨之改變。聽著，我並不希望市場下跌。市場下跌對我們和其他公司一樣有害。但我對ADP目前的競爭地位感到滿意，也對我們目前的資產負債表、股利以及資本配置方式感到滿意。

But the most important thing I'm proud of is our associates because every quarter now, as we get further away from -- despite Omicron and so forth, clearly, we're in a much better place than we were before. We would not be where we are today without our associates. And I mentioned how we were understaffed for sure in the early times of the pandemic because we felt like we had to be careful on the expense side. And as we were being careful, the workloads were increasing because of all the government regulation issues that were intended to help, and they did. All of the stimulus, and this is across the whole world, that created a ton of work for our people, of which we had fewer people. And I'm incredibly grateful and will forever be indebted for people stepping up and doing whatever it took to get our clients and get us through that difficult period.

但我最引以為傲的還是我們的同事們，因為每個季度，儘管經歷了 Omicron 等一系列挑戰，我們仍然比以前好得多。沒有同事們的努力，我們不可能有今天的成就。我之前提到過，在疫情初期，我們確實人手不足，因為我們當時覺得必須謹慎控製成本。然而，在我們謹慎行事的同時，由於政府推出的各種旨在幫助抗疫的監管措施，工作量卻在不斷增加，而這些措施也確實起到了作用。全球範圍內的刺激措施為我們的員工帶來了大量的工作，而我們當時的人員卻相對較少。我無比感激那些挺身而出、盡力幫助客戶、帶領我們度過那段艱難時期的同事們，並將永遠銘記他們的恩情。

I'm so glad that we're able to deliver on all of our commitments because we were, I think, one important factor besides the Amazon trucks still running and other parts of the economy still functioning. I think we played a role in helping the world economy, I think, get through the pandemic. And our associates deserve all our credit for the role they played.

我非常高興我們能夠履行所有承諾，因為我認為，除了亞馬遜的卡車仍在運作以及經濟其他部門仍在運作之外，我們也是其中一個重要因素。我認為我們為幫助世界經濟渡過疫情難關做出了貢獻。我們的員工也理應獲得我們所有的讚譽。

So with that, I appreciate you listening to us, and we look forward to catching up with you again in the next quarter. Thank you.

感謝各位的聆聽，我們期待在下個季度再次與您交流。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。