自動資料處理 (ADP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. After the speaker's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Danyal Hussain, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安.我是Michelle，本次會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2022財年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，本次會議正在錄音。在發言人發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。現在，我將會議交給投資人關係副總裁Danyal Hussain先生。請開始發言。

Thank you, Michelle, and apologies to everyone for the brief delay, and welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Participating today are Carlos Rodriguez, our CEO; Maria Black, our President; and Don McGuire, our CFO.

謝謝米歇爾，也向大家致歉，因為耽擱了一會兒。歡迎大家參加ADP 2022財年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。今天出席會議的有：執行長卡洛斯·羅德里格斯、總裁瑪麗亞·布萊克和財務長唐·麥奎爾。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早些時候，我們發布了本季業績報告。您可以在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上查閱我們的業績報告資料，該網站還提供今天電話會議的投資者簡報。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description of these items along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標。我們認為這些指標對投資者更有幫助，因為它們剔除了某些項目的影響。有關這些項目的說明以及非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們的獲利報告。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. With that, let me turn it over to Carlos.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件，並存在一定風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期有重大差異的因素。接下來，我將把發言權交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Danny, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We finished our fiscal 2022 with a strong fourth quarter that featured 10% revenue growth and 12% organic constant currency revenue growth. We also delivered 170 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion, which helped drive 25% adjusted EPS growth. And for the full fiscal year 2022, we ended up with 10% revenue growth, 90 basis points of margin expansion, 16% adjusted EPS growth. And importantly, we achieved record bookings and near record-level retention, reflecting our strong position in the HCM market.

謝謝丹尼，也謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我們以強勁的第四季業績結束了2022財年，該季度營收成長10%，以固定匯率計算的有機營收成長12%。此外，我們的調整後息稅前利潤率提升了170個基點，推動調整後每股盈餘成長25%。 2022財年全年，我們的營收成長10%，利潤率提升90個基點，調整後每股盈餘成長16%。更重要的是，我們實現了創紀錄的訂單量和接近歷史最高水準的客戶留存率，這體現了我們在人力資本管理（HCM）市場的強大地位。

Let me cover some highlights from the quarter and year before turning it over to Maria and Don for their perspectives. Starting with Employer Services new business bookings. We had a fantastic Q4 with growth accelerating from the prior quarter resulting in our largest new business bookings quarter ever. And with this strong finish, we were very pleased to have delivered 15% ES bookings growth for the year. Despite several sources of global uncertainty, including the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, inflation and concerns about global recession, our compelling suite of HCM offerings have continued to resonate throughout the market.

在將發言權交給瑪麗亞和唐之前，我先來回顧一下本季和本年度的一些亮點。首先是雇主服務的新業務預訂情況。我們在第四季表現出色，成長速度較上一季有所加快，創下了有史以來最高的單季新業務預訂量。憑藉這一強勁的收官表現，我們非常高興地實現了全年雇主服務預訂量15%的成長。儘管全球面臨許多不確定因素，包括疫情的持續影響、烏克蘭衝突、通貨膨脹以及對全球經濟衰退的擔憂，我們極具競爭力的HCM產品組合依然在市場上引起了廣泛關注。

In total, we sold over $1.7 billion in ES new business bookings in fiscal 2022 and well over $2 billion when including the PEO, marking the first time we've exceeded $2 billion in bookings. Maria will talk more about the growth opportunities ahead, but clearly, we are incredibly pleased with what is the best performance by our sales force that I've seen in my 20 years with ADP.

2022財年，我們的ES新業務訂單總額超過17億美元，若計入PEO業務，則超過20億美元，這是我們首次突破20億美元大關。瑪莉亞將進一步探討未來的成長機遇，但顯然，我們對銷售團隊的出色表現感到無比滿意，這是我在ADP工作20年來見過的最佳業績。

Moving on. Our full year ES retention of 92.1% was nearly flat versus last year's record level of 92.2% as we once again exceeded our expectations in the fourth quarter. Client retention is driven by several factors, including product and service quality, business mix and macroeconomic factors. And our expectation at the start of fiscal 2022 called for macroeconomic factors like SMB out-of-business rates to drive some normalization and retention towards pre-pandemic levels. We did see some of that play out but clearly less than anticipated.

接下來，我們全年的客戶留存率為92.1%，與去年創紀錄的92.2%基本持平，第四季再次超出預期。客戶留存率受多種因素影響，包括產品和服務品質、業務組合以及宏觀經濟因素。我們在2022財年初曾預期，中小企業倒閉率等宏觀經濟因素將推動市場趨於正常化，客戶留存率將恢復到疫情前水準。我們確實看到了一些這樣的跡象，但顯然低於預期。

More importantly, our product and service teams have continued to deliver a best-in-class experience for our clients and particularly so on our modern and scaled platforms. We achieved record client satisfaction levels for the year, and we once again set new record levels for retention in several of our businesses, including our mid-market. So although you will hear from Don that we are once again making an assumption for a modest amount of macroeconomic-related normalization in retention in fiscal 2023, we are excited to have delivered such a strong performance in fiscal 2022 and look forward to maintaining our retention rates at these historically high levels.

更重要的是，我們的產品和服務團隊持續為客戶提供一流的體驗，尤其是在我們現代化且規模化的平台上。我們實現了年度客戶滿意度新高，並在包括中階市場在內的多個業務領域再次刷新了客戶留存率紀錄。因此，儘管唐會再次提到，我們預計2023財年客戶留存率將出現一定程度的宏觀經濟相關正常化，但我們對2022財年取得如此強勁的業績感到非常興奮，並期待將客戶留存率維持在歷史高位。

Moving on to the employment picture. Our pays per control growth metric was 7% for the quarter and 7% for the year, reflecting a persistently strong demand environment for labor among our clients that has continued to exceed our expectations. This growth has served as a testament to the resilience of our clients. And although we expect pays per control growth will naturally slow in the coming quarters, employment conditions today remain strong with our client data suggesting that near-term demand for labor remains healthy.

接下來談談就業狀況。本季和全年的每項控制權薪酬成長率均為7%，反映出我們客戶對勞動力的需求持續強勁，並持續超越我們的預期。這一增長證明了我們客戶的韌性。儘管我們預期未來幾季每項控制權薪資成長率將自然放緩，但目前的就業狀況依然強勁，客戶數據顯示，短期內勞動力需求依然健康。

And finally, our PEO business delivered another great quarter as it wrapped up a strong year. We had average worksite employee growth of 14% in Q4 and 15% for the year, and we were thrilled to have crossed the 700,000 worksite employee mark this quarter.

最後，我們的PEO業務在強勁的業績基礎上，又迎來了一個出色的季度，為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。第四季度，我們的平均現場員工人數增加了14%，全年成長了15%，我們非常高興在本季度突破了70萬名現場員工大關。

As you know, I joined ADP 2 decades ago when ADP entered the PEO market through an acquisition. And as bullish as I was about the PEO industry back then, I'm not sure I could have anticipated we would be here 20 years later still growing at this combination of pace and scale. But the ADP TotalSource team continues to deliver a great platform, great service and a great benefit experience for our PEO clients, and there is plenty of opportunity for us in the years ahead to serve even more businesses.

如您所知，我於20年前加入ADP，當時ADP透過收購進入了PEO市場。儘管我當時對PEO產業充滿信心，但我恐怕無法預料20年後我們依然能夠維持如此高速且規模的成長。 ADP TotalSource團隊始終致力於為我們的PEO客戶提供卓越的平台、優質的服務和良好的員工體驗，未來幾年，我們將有很大的機會為更多企業提供服務。

Taking a step back, fiscal 2022 was unique in a number of ways. We experienced strong demand with over $2 billion in worldwide new business bookings and near record-level retention, which together drove us to surpass 990,000 clients at year-end, putting us on track to exceed 1 million clients any day now. At the same time, we've had to manage this growth in volume with prudent head count growth given tight labor conditions. The way we've been able to do that is through efficiencies, of course, but also some plain hard work by our associates. And for that, I thank them for their efforts and for coming through for our clients once again. I'll now turn it over to Maria.

回顧2022財年，這一年可謂獨具特色。我們經歷了強勁的需求，全球新業務訂單額超過20億美元，客戶留存率也接近歷史最高水平，這些因素共同推動我們在年底客戶數量突破99萬，並有望很快突破100萬大關。同時，鑑於勞動力市場緊張，我們必須在維持員工人數成長的同時，謹慎應對業務量的成長。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，當然得益於效率的提升，也離不開員工們的辛勤付出。在此，我衷心感謝他們的努力，感謝他們再次為我們的客戶提供優質服務。現在，我將把發言權交給瑪麗亞。

Thank you, Carlos. With fiscal '22 behind us, I want to take this opportunity to review where we stand on some key initiatives and provide an update on where we are heading in fiscal '23. At the core of our client experience is their interaction with our platform, and one product initiative we have talked about throughout fiscal '22 is our new unified user experience, which was designed to be more action-oriented and contextual and to move us from transaction-oriented applications to experience-oriented applications. In other words, more intuitive, better looking, faster and more consistent across our solutions.

謝謝卡洛斯。 2022財年已經過去，我想藉此機會回顧我們在一些關鍵舉措上的進展，並介紹一下我們在2023財年的發展方向。客戶體驗的核心在於他們與我們平台的互動，而我們在2022財年一直強調的一項產品舉措就是我們全新的統一用戶體驗。該體驗旨在更加重視操作和情境，並將我們從以交易為導向的應用程式轉變為以體驗為導向的應用程式。換句話說，它將更加直觀、美觀、快速，並且在我們的解決方案中更加一致。

To achieve this, we have applied a research-driven approach informed by the data and insights we have gained in working with our nearly 1 million clients. Our focus has been to listen to our clients, learn from them and utilize their input to design the best experience. In fiscal '22, we moved hundreds of thousands of clients over to this new user experience, including our clients on RUN, iHCM and Next Gen HCM as well as over 20,000 Workforce Now clients. We also moved the ADP Mobile App over to the new UX.

為了實現這一目標，我們採用了以研究為導向的方法，該方法基於我們與近百萬客戶合作過程中累積的數據和洞察。我們始終專注於傾聽客戶的聲音，從他們身上學習，並利用他們的回饋來設計最佳使用者體驗。在2022財年，我們已將數十萬名客戶遷移到這全新的使用者體驗平台，其中包括使用RUN、iHCM和Next Gen HCM的客戶，以及超過2萬名使用Workforce Now的客戶。此外，我們還將ADP行動應用程式遷移到了新的使用者體驗平台。

Feedback so far has been extremely positive. And in fiscal '23, we plan to expand this rollout further to remaining Workforce Now clients as well as to additional modules and experiences within our key platforms. Workforce Now, in particular, has been exciting for us for a few reasons beyond user experience.

目前為止，回饋都非常正面。在 2023 財年，我們計劃將這項服務進一步推廣到所有 Workforce Now 客戶，以及我們主要平台中的其他模組和體驗。 Workforce Now 尤其讓我們感到興奮，除了使用者體驗之外，還有其他幾個原因。

First is its growing traction in the U.S. enterprise market. Just this quarter, ADP was rated for the first time an overall Customer's Choice provider in Gartner's annual Voice of the Customer study. This was the highest tier possible and was based on prospective from end users with 1,000 or more employees and is a reflection of our continued momentum in selling Workforce Now to the lower end of the U.S. upmarket these past few years. This momentum builds on the already strong presence and traction Workforce Now has had in the U.S. mid-market, in the HRO space and in Canada, all places where it is highly differentiated.

首先是其在美國企業市場的日益增長的影響力。就在本季度，ADP在Gartner年度「客戶之聲」研究中首次榮獲「客戶之選」稱號。這是最高級別，評選依據是擁有1000名或以上員工的終端用戶的反饋，反映了過去幾年我們在向美國高端市場中端用戶銷售Workforce Now方面持續取得的良好勢頭。這股動能建立在Workforce Now在美國中階市場、人力資源外包（HRO）領域以及加拿大市場已有的強大影響力之上，在這些市場，Workforce Now都展現出了高度的差異化優勢。

Second is the continued rollout of our Next Gen Payroll engine to a growing portion of our new Workforce Now clients. Our Next Gen Payroll engine not only benefits from having a global native and public cloud architecture, but also empowers our platforms like Workforce Now to offer a better product experience and enables us to offer better service. We are incredibly excited for our payroll engine to continue to scale up to larger and more complex Workforce Now clients over the coming quarters.

其次，我們正持續向越來越多的 Workforce Now 新客戶推廣我們的下一代薪資引擎。我們的下一代薪資引擎不僅受惠於其全球原生和公有雲架構，還能賦能 Workforce Now 等平台，進而提供更優質的產品體驗和更完善的服務。我們非常期待在未來幾個季度，我們的薪資引擎能夠繼續擴展，服務於規模更大、業務更複雜的 Workforce Now 客戶。

And finally, with talent and engagement an increasingly important aspect of the HCM suite, we continue to focus on our ability to help employers better connect with their employees. This quarter, we will launch a new offering that we're calling Voice of the Employee, a robust employee survey and listening tool, which leverages survey instruments from the ADP Research Institute to offer clients a way to seamlessly capture employee sentiment across the employee life cycle.

最後，隨著人才和員工敬業度在人力資本管理 (HCM) 套件中日益重要，我們將繼續致力於幫助雇主更好地與員工建立聯繫。本季度，我們將推出一項名為「員工之聲」的全新服務，這是一款強大的員工調查和傾聽工具，它利用 ADP 研究機構的調查工具，為客戶提供一種在員工生命週期的各個階段無縫收集員工意見的方式。

And one of the things I love about this solution is that it was born out of an elevated client employee engagement, our return to work -- workplace solutions have been able to drive and it reflects the ability of our global product team to quickly identify an opportunity and develop a solution to meet a need in the market.

我喜歡這個解決方案的一點是，它源於客戶員工參與度的提高，以及我們重返工作崗位——工作場所解決方案所取得的進展，這體現了我們全球產品團隊能夠快速識別機會並開發解決方案以滿足市場需求的能力。

Moving on, we made some exciting enhancements to the Wisely program this quarter. Most notably, we now offer Wisely self-enrollment with full digital wallet capabilities for Apple and Google Pay thereby allowing employees to instantly receive and start using their Wisely account without support from their employer and without having to wait for a physical card. We also expanded our work -- earned wage access solution by offering a seamless 1 app solution for Wisely members through a deeper integration with one of our key partners.

接下來，本季我們對Wisely計劃進行了一些令人興奮的改進。最值得一提的是，我們現在提供Wisely自助註冊功能，並支援Apple Pay和Google Pay的完整數位錢包功能，員工無需雇主協助，也無需等待實體卡，即可立即獲得併開始使用他們的Wisely帳戶。此外，我們也擴展了工作收入獲取解決方案，透過與重要合作夥伴的深度整合，為Wisely會員提供了一個無縫的單一應用程式解決方案。

The offering enables employees to receive a portion of their earned wages prior to payday and, most importantly, is free for employees who use Wisely. With these enhancements and more on the horizon, we're incredibly excited about the growth prospects for Wisely and look forward to taking it from over 1.5 million active members today to an even larger portion of our U.S. payroll base over the coming years.

這項服務允許員工在發薪日之前提前領取部分工資，更重要的是，使用 Wisely 的員工可以免費享受這項服務。憑藉這些改進以及未來即​​將推出的更多功能，我們對 Wisely 的發展前景感到無比興奮，並期待在未來幾年內，將其活躍用戶數量從目前的 150 多萬提升至我們美國員工總數的更大比例。

During fiscal '22, we also highlighted the strength of our retirement services business, a key component of our HCM suite. We offer recordkeeping services, provide unbiased independent advisory services and give our clients, their employees and financial advisers, access to over 10,000 investment options from over 300 investment managers seamlessly integrated with our key platform and with the ADP Mobile App.

在2022財年，我們也重點強調了退休服務業務的優勢，這是我們人力資本管理（HCM）套件的關鍵組成部分。我們提供記錄保存服務、公正獨立的諮詢服務，並使我們的客戶、其員工和財務顧問能夠透過我們的核心平台和ADP行動應用程序，無縫存取來自300多家投資管理公司的10,000多種投資選擇。

With over 125,000 retirement plan clients leveraging solutions, including 401(k), SIMPLE and SEP plans, we are proud of our scale today, but even more excited about the significant opportunity in the market as we look to expand our market share within and beyond our payroll base of client. Fiscal '22 was an incredibly strong year for our retirement services business, and we are looking forward to another strong year.

我們擁有超過 125,000 家退休計畫客戶，他們正在使用我們的解決方案，包括 401(k)、SIMPLE 和 SEP 計畫。我們為目前的規模感到自豪，但更讓我們興奮的是，隨著我們不斷拓展市場份額，市場蘊藏著巨大的機遇，我們將努力在現有客戶群內外擴大市場份額。 2022 財年是我們的退休服務業務表現極為強勁的一年，我們期待著另一個輝煌的財年。

And finally, our Next Gen HCM solution is getting closer to a broader rollout as we continue building on the implementation capacity for our pipeline of sold clients as we shared at last year's Investor Day. While we are excited about all of these product enhancements and others too, product only drives growth when our sales and marketing organization can match it to a buyer and translate it into new business booking. And to that end, we are excited about our sales and marketing momentum and the continued investments we have planned to drive growth this year.

最後，正如我們在去年投資者日上分享的那樣，隨著我們不斷提升已售客戶的實施能力，我們的下一代HCM解決方案正逐步接近全面推廣。我們對所有這些產品改進以及其他方面都感到興奮，但只有當我們的銷售和市場團隊能夠將產品精準匹配到買家並轉化為新業務訂單時，產品才能真正推動成長。為此，我們對目前的銷售和市場發展勢頭以及我們計劃在今年繼續增加投資以推動成長感到振奮。

First, the product improvements I just mentioned as well as many others are all intended to drive higher win rates and expanded breadth of offerings for higher price realization, and we fully expect our sales force to continue capitalizing on these opportunities. Second, we are making continued investments in both digital and traditional marketing into our brands and into our broad and growing partnership network. Third, we are excited to have invested at year-end in sales head count and are stepping into the new year with hundreds of additional quota carriers. And we expect to be able to grow our average sales head count in the mid-single-digit range over fiscal '23.

首先，我剛才提到的產品改進以及其他諸多改進，都是為了提高成交率，拓展產品線，從而實現更高的售價，我們完全相信我們的銷售團隊會繼續把握這些機會。其次，我們將持續加大品牌和合作夥伴網路的數位化和傳統行銷投入。第三，我們很高興在年底增加了銷售人員，並在新的一年裡擁有數百名新增的銷售人員。我們預計在2023財年，銷售人員的平均成長率將達到中等個位數。

Continued execution on our product and our sales and marketing strategy is ultimately designed to drive sustainable growth. And for fiscal '23, we expect to drive ES bookings growth of 6% to 9%, bracketing around our medium-term target of 7% to 8% from Investor Day. Growth is a priority for us, and we look forward to continuing to update you on our progress. Now over to Don.

我們持續推動產品研發以及銷售和行銷策略，最終目標是實現永續成長。 2023財年，我們預計ES預訂量將成長6%至9%，與我們在投資者日上公佈的7%至8%的中期目標基本一致。成長是我們的首要任務，我們期待繼續向大家報告最新進展。接下來請Don發言。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Our Q4 represented a strong close to the year with 10% revenue growth on a reported basis and 12% growth on an organic constant currency basis, ahead of our expectations despite higher-than-expected FX headwind from the strength in the dollar. Our adjusted EBIT margin was up 170 basis points, about in line with our expectations as leverage from strong revenue growth overcame higher selling expenses, PEO pass-throughs and growth investments like the sales head count growth Maria just mentioned. And our robust revenue and margin performance drove 25% adjusted EPS growth for the quarter, supported by our ongoing return of cash to our investors via share repurchases.

謝謝瑪麗亞，大家早安。第四季業績強勁，按報告基準計算營收成長10%，以有機成長（以固定匯率計算）成長12%，超出預期，為全年畫上了圓滿的句號。儘管美元走強帶來的匯率波動影響超乎預期，但我們的業績依然出色。調整後的息稅前利潤率成長170個基點，基本上符合預期，強勁的營收成長帶來的槓桿效應抵消了銷售費用、專業雇主組織（PEO）轉嫁費用以及瑪麗亞剛才提到的銷售人員成長等成長投資的影響。此外，強勁的營收和利潤率表現推動本季調整後每股收益成長25%，這得益於我們持續透過股票回購向投資者返還現金。

For the full year, revenue landed at 10% growth. We delivered 90 basis points of margin expansion, offsetting a few different sources of incremental expense over the course of the year, and adjusted EPS grew to $7.01, up about 16%.

全年營收成長10%。我們實現了90個基點的利潤率提升，抵銷了年內幾項不同的新增支出，調整後每股收益成長至7.01美元，成長約16%。

For our Employer Services segment, revenues in the quarter increased 8% on a reported basis and 9% on an organic constant currency basis. The stronger-than-expected revenue growth was a function of continued outperformance on key metrics like retention and pays per control. And our ES margin increase of 140 basis points was a bit lower than previously planned as a result of growing head count faster than previously anticipated. For the full year, our ES revenues grew 8% on a reported basis and our ES margin increased 110 basis points.

就我們的雇主服務業務部門而言，本季營收按報告基準成長8%，以有機成長（以固定匯率計算）成長9%。營收成長超出預期主要得益於關鍵指標（例如顧客留存率和人均薪資）的持續優異表現。由於員工人數成長速度超出預期，我們的雇主服務業務利潤率成長140個基點，略低於先前預期。全年來看，我們的雇主服務業務收入按報告基準成長8%，利潤率成長110個基點。

For our PEO, revenue in the quarter grew 16%, accelerating slightly from Q3. Average worksite employees increased 14% on a year-over-year basis, to 704,000 as bookings, retention and same-store pays all continued to perform well. PEO margin was up 260 basis points in the quarter, due in large part to favorable workers' compensation reserve adjustments. For the full year, our PEO revenues and average worksite employees grew -- both grew 15% at the high end of our guidance ranges, and our margin expanded 80 basis points.

本季度，我們的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 業務收入成長 16%，較第三季度略有加速。由於預訂量、顧客留存率和同店銷售額均持續保持良好勢頭，平均工作場所員工人數較去年同期成長 14%，達到 70.4 萬人。本季 PEO 業務利潤率提升 260 個基點，主要得益於有利的工傷賠償準備調整。全年來看，我們的 PEO 業務收入和平均工作場所員工人數均實現成長——均達到我們預期範圍的上限，增幅達 15%，利潤率也提升了 80 個基點。

I'll now turn to our outlook for fiscal '23, beginning with some overall remarks. We have, on the one hand, an inflationary environment that is creating upward pressure on our expense base. And at the same time, we recognize there is clearly concern about a potential upcoming global recession or that we perhaps are already in one. On the other hand, our momentum entering fiscal '23 is strong, and there are no obvious signs of near-term strain. And if the market's forecast of higher interest rate holds, we are positioned to benefit from a continued rebound in interest income.

接下來，我將談談我們對2023財年的展望，首先是一些整體情況。一方面，通膨環境對我們的支出基礎帶來了上行壓力。同時，我們也意識到，市場顯然擔憂即將到來的全球經濟衰退，或者我們可能已經身處其中。另一方面，我們進入2023財年的發展勢頭強勁，目前沒有明顯的短期壓力跡象。如果市場對利率上升的預期得以實現，我們將受益於利息收入的持續反彈。

So our focus for now will be to continue executing on our strategy. And to that end, we have been and will continue to be making investments in head count where we perhaps didn't get a chance to last year in a tight labor market, but we also expect to deliver growth that's at or above our medium-term annual objectives shared at our November 21 Investor Day.

因此，我們目前的重點是繼續執行既定策略。為此，我們一直在並將繼續加大人員投入，彌補去年在勞動市場緊張的情況下可能未能實現的不足。同時，我們也期望實現或超過我們在11月21日投資者日上公佈的中期年度成長目標。

On to the numbers. Beginning with ES segment revenues. We expect growth of 6% to 8% driven by the following key assumptions: First, we expect our ES new business bookings growth to be 6% to 9%, which Maria covered. For ES retention, we finished the year at 92.1%, a touch below last year's record level, and we believe it's prudent to anticipate some further normalization of SMB out of business levels in fiscal '23, even while we maintain record retention levels in some of our other business units. Our initial assumption is for a decline of 25 to 50 basis points in ES retention for the year.

接下來是具體數據。首先是企業服務（ES）業務部門的收入。我們預期成長6%至8%，主要基於以下幾個假設：首先，我們預期ES業務板塊的新業務預訂量將成長6%至9%，Maria已經對此進行了說明。在ES業務部門的客戶留存率方面，我們今年的留存率為92.1%，略低於去年的紀錄水準。我們認為，即使我們其他一些業務部門的客戶留存率保持著歷史新高，但2023財年中小企業（SMB）的流失率仍將有所回落，因此謹慎起見，我們預計這一數字將進一步趨於正常化。我們最初預期ES業務板塊的客戶留存率將在本年度下降25至50個基點。

For pays per control with employment back near prepandemic levels, we anticipate a return to a more typical 2% to 3% growth range. We normally talk about prices contributing 50 basis points to our ES growth rate. We expect that benefit to be around 100 to 150 basis points this year. And for client funds interest revenue, we expect higher overnight interest rates and higher repurchase rates on maturing securities should combine with our continued balance growth to drive interest income up nicely.

隨著就業人數恢復到接近疫情前水平，我們預期每股盈餘將回歸到更為典型的2%至3%的成長區間。通常情況下，價格會對我們的標普500指數（ES）成長率貢獻50個基點。我們預計今年這項貢獻將達到100至150個基點左右。至於客戶資金的利息收入，我們預期隔夜利率上升和到期證券回購利率上升，加上我們持續的帳戶餘額成長，將顯著推動利息收入的成長。

Our short funds' portfolio, which is invested in overnight securities will benefit assuming the federal open market committee increases the Fed funds rate over the course of this fiscal year. And our client extended and long portfolios will benefit as we reinvest maturing securities at an expected rate of about 3.3%. Between those 2 drivers, we expect average yields to increase from 1.4% in fiscal '22 to 2.2% in fiscal '23. We expect our client funds balances to grow 4% to 6%, supported by growth in clients, pays per control and wages. And this is on top of a very robust 19% growth we experienced last year.

我們投資於隔夜證券的短期基金組合，若聯邦公開市場委員會在本財政年度提高聯邦基金利率，將受益匪淺。同時，由於我們將以約3.3%的預期收益率對到期證券進行再投資，我們客戶的長期和超長期投資組合也將受益。在這兩大因素的推動下，我們預期平均殖利率將從2022財年的1.4%上升至2023財年的2.2%。我們預計，在客戶數量、每位管理人薪資和薪資成長的支撐下，客戶資金餘額將增加4%至6%。而這還是在我們去年實現了19%的強勁成長的基礎上。

Putting those together, we expect our client funds interest revenue to increase from $452 million in fiscal '22 to a range of $720 million to $740 million in fiscal '23. Meanwhile, the net impact from our client fund strategy will increase by a bit less from $475 million in fiscal '22 to a range of $675 million to $695 million in fiscal '23. And as a reminder, this is the number that impacts our adjusted EBIT. The slightly lower growth here is due to the expected increase in short-term borrowing costs, which track the Fed funds rate. This borrowing enables us to ladder our portfolio and invest further out on the yield curve than we otherwise would. As we gradually reinvest our maturing securities, this gap between client funds revenue and the net impact from our client fund strategy should reverse and, again, become positive.

綜合以上因素，我們預期客戶基金利息收入將從2022財年的4.52億美元增加至2023財年的7.2億美元至7.4億美元。同時，客戶基金策略的淨收益增幅略低，將從2022財年的4.75億美元增至2023財年的6.75億美元至6.95億美元。需要提醒的是，這些數據會影響我們的調整後息稅前利潤（EBIT）。此處成長略低是由於短期借貸成本預期上升，而短期借貸成本與聯邦基金利率掛鉤。這種借貸使我們能夠建立階梯式投資組合，並投資於殖利率曲線更遠的資產。隨著我們逐步將到期證券進行再投資，客戶基金收入與客戶基金策略淨收益之間的差距應該會縮小，並再次轉為正值。

Back to the ES revenue outlook. One more factor to consider is FX headwind. Clearly, with the euro near parity to the dollar with a weaker pound and with about 20% of our ES segment revenue being generated outside the U.S. were factored in a fair amount of FX headwind for fiscal '23 of well over 1%. For our ES margin, we expect an increase of 175 to 200 basis points.

回到ES業務的收入展望。另一個需要考慮的因素是匯率波動帶來的不利影響。顯然，由於歐元兌美元匯率接近平價，英鎊走弱，且我們ES業務約20%的營收來自美國以外地區，因此2023財年ES業務的匯率波動不利影響已超過1%。我們預期ES業務的利潤率將提高175至200個基點。

This coming year, our expense base will be increasing more than it does in a typical year, in part due to inflationary pressure on our overall wages and in part due to head count growth, some of which we did late in fiscal '22 and some of which we're planning for fiscal '23. But because our margins are benefiting from strong revenue growth outlook, including growth in client funds interest revenue, we're pleased to be able to guide to the strong ES margin outlook.

來年，我們的支出基數將比往年增長更多，部分原因是通膨壓力推高了整體工資水平，部分原因是員工人數增長，其中一部分增長發生在2022財年末，另一部分則計劃在2023財年實現。但由於強勁的營收成長前景（包括客戶資金利息收入的成長）將提振我們的利潤率，我們很高興能夠對強勁的ES利潤率前景做出預測。

Moving on to the PEO segment. We expect PEO revenues and PEO revenues excluding zero margin pass-through to grow 10% to 12%. The primary driver for our PEO revenue growth is our outlook for average worksite employee growth of 8% to 10%. That would represent a bit of a deceleration from last year, but of course, we are contemplating much less contribution from same-store pays per control in fiscal '23 compared to fiscal '22. This 8% to 10% growth compares to a high single-digit target that we outlined at the Investor Day in November. We expect our PEO margin to be down 25 to up 25 basis points in fiscal '23 compared to a strong margin result in fiscal '22.

接下來談談PEO業務區。我們預計PEO收入以及不計入零利潤轉嫁的PEO收入將成長10%至12%。 PEO收入成長的主要驅動因素是我們對平均工作場所員工人數增加8%至10%的預期。這比去年略有放緩，但當然，我們也考慮到2023財年同店每戶收入的貢獻將遠低於2022財年。這一8%至10%的成長目標與我們在11月投資者日上提出的高個位數成長目標相比有所下降。我們預計2023財年PEO利潤率將比2022財年強勁的利潤率表現下降25至上升25個基點。

Adding it all up, our consolidated revenue outlook is for 7% to 9% growth in fiscal '23. And our adjusted EBIT margin outlook is for expansion of 100 to 125 basis points. We expect our effective tax rate for fiscal '23 to increase slightly to about 23%, and we expect adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 16%, supported by buybacks.

綜合來看，我們預計2023財年合併營收將成長7%至9%。調整後息稅前利潤率預計將提升100至125個基點。我們預計2023財年實際稅率將略為上升至約23%，調整後每股盈餘預計將成長13%至16%，主要得益於股票回購。

And I'll make one comment on cadence. Because we expect year-over-year head count growth to be more significant early in the year and because of the benefit from clients' funds interest will build as the year progresses, we expect adjusted EBIT margins to be down about 50 basis points in Q1 but then build steadily over the rest of the year. And I'll now turn it back to Michelle for Q&A.

關於節奏，我再補充一點。由於我們預計年初員工人數同比增長幅度會更大，而且隨著時間的推移，客戶資金利息的收益也會不斷增加，因此我們預計第一季調整後的息稅前利潤率將下降約50個基點，但之後會在今年餘下的時間裡穩步增長。現在我把問答環節交給Michelle。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

I wanted to start with the demand question. So can you just talk about what you've seen across client size as it relates to the demand environment? I heard the continued optimism in the mid-market. Can you talk a bit, bit more about up-market, down-market, international? And then just give us a sense of booking Cadence. It sounds like it accelerated through 4Q. Have you seen any change in pace as you've gone through the first couple of weeks here in July?

我想先從需求方面的問題談起。您能否談談您觀察到的不同規模顧客的需求環境？我聽說中階市場依然保持樂觀。能否再詳細談談高端市場、低端市場和國際市場的情況？另外，能否簡單介紹一下Cadence的預訂節奏？聽起來第四季預訂量有所加快。在七月份的前幾週，您是否觀察到預訂節奏有任何變化？

Yes. Absolutely, Bryan. I am happy to comment on both pieces. So with respect to the overall strength that we saw in new business bookings, both for the full year fiscal, very, very proud of the remarkable results, both for full year as well as the fourth quarter. And the strength was really broad-based. There was solid performance across each one of our markets. I think a few call-outs that I would give, you highlighted the mid-market The mid-market does continue to perform. We saw strength in our HRO offerings, even beyond the PEO. The HRO was a strength for us. I know I mentioned it in the prepared remarks, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention retirement services again. We also saw strong results in Canada, which was fantastic to see as Canada, definitely, was impacted a bit more with the longer lockdowns from a pandemic perspective.

是的，布萊恩，當然。我很樂意就這兩點發表評論。關於我們全年和第四季度新業務預訂的整體強勁表現，我為取得的卓越成績感到非常自豪。而且這種強勁勢頭是全方位的，我們每個市場都表現穩健。我想特別強調幾點，你提到了中端市場，中端市場的確持續表現良好。我們的人力資源外包（HRO）服務也表現強勁，甚至超越了專業雇主組織（PEO）業務。 HRO 是我們的優勢所在。我知道我在事先準備好的發言稿中已經提到過，但如果我不再次提及退休服務，那就太失職了。我們在加拿大也取得了強勁的業績，這令人欣喜，因為從疫情的角度來看，加拿大受封鎖時間較長的影響更大。

And then I continue to highlight, quarter after quarter, the strength that we're seeing in our down market and our RUN offers. So we felt very pleased with the RUN. And then last but not least, on the international front, our international business had a tremendous year. So very confident in the results. Very proud of the work of the sales organization. As we think about the demand environment right now, you've asked about how did it progress throughout the quarter and how do we feel sitting here a few weeks since July, I suppose I can't necessarily comment on in quarter, but what I can comment on is we did see the results accelerate throughout the quarter.

然後，我繼續強調，每個季度我們都看到了在低迷市場和RUN產品組合下所展現出的強勁勢頭。因此，我們對RUN產品組合的表現非常滿意。最後，在國際市場方面，我們的國際業務取得了巨大的成功。我對業績非常有信心，也為銷售團隊的工作感到非常自豪。談到目前的市場需求，您問到了本季市場的發展情況，以及自7月以來幾週以來我們的感受。我想我無法對本季的情況妄加評論，但我可以肯定的是，我們確實看到業績在本季加速成長。

So while there was some macroeconomic things happening in the world, our demand actually accelerated as we closed out the quarter. So we saw significant strength specifically in the month of June. In fact, June was a record month for us ever, as was the quarter and as was the year, as mentioned. So I feel good about the demand environment and the acceleration we saw throughout the quarter. Thank you for the question.

儘管全球宏觀經濟情勢有所波動，但我們的需求在季度末實際上加速成長。尤其是在六月，我們看到了顯著的強勁成長。事實上，正如之前提到的，六月、整個季度以及全年都創下了我們有史以來的最高紀錄。因此，我對需求環境以及整個季度的成長勢頭感到樂觀。謝謝你的提問。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on margins. So if things do slow down, can you just talk about the levers you have to insulate the EBIT margins? It sounds like you have baked in a healthy amount of resource additions. Can you talk about where you're making those across the organization and then where you might have some discretion to throttle investments should things slow down?

好的。接下來我想問一下利潤率方面的問題。如果業務成長放緩，您能否談談您有哪些措施來維持息稅前利潤率？聽起來您已經預留了相當可觀的資源投資。您能否具體說明這些投入在公司哪些方面，以及如果業務成長放緩，您在哪些方面可以酌情縮減投資？

Yes. No, it's a very good question, so thank you for the question. I think as I mentioned in the remarks and the materials that we distributed, that we were able to get our sales organization a little bit more than fully staffed going into the fourth quarter, and that makes us feel really good about the opportunity to step off into '23 with a fully staffed team, which is something that, as we mentioned in prior quarters, was a little bit more difficult to do during '22.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，謝謝你的提問。正如我在先前的發言和分發的資料中提到的，我們在進入第四季度時，銷售團隊的人員配備已經略微超過了滿員狀態，這讓我們對2023年能夠以滿員團隊開啟新篇章感到非常樂觀。正如我們在前幾個季度提到的，在2022年實現這一點要困難得多。

So I think we feel really good about where we are with staffing, particularly on the sales side. I'd also say that just following the business model that we have, if we look at the record sales we had, particularly late in the fourth quarter, we need to make sure that we have fully staffed implementation resources to get those bookings generating revenue as quickly as we can. So we will be focused on that. And then, of course, just following through to the year-end process, we need to make sure we can service all those additional clients, and that time comes upon us in late December, January, February. So we can do all those things.

所以我覺得我們對目前的人員配置非常滿意，尤其是在銷售方面。我還想說，按照我們現有的商業模式，如果我們回顧一下我們創紀錄的銷售額，特別是第四季度末的銷售額，我們需要確保有足夠的人員配備來實施這些項目，以便盡快讓這些訂單產生收入。因此，我們將專注於此。當然，在年底的各項工作中，我們還需要確保能夠服務所有新增客戶，而這段期間將在12月底、1月和2月到來。所以我們能夠做好所有這些工作。

On the other hand, as I referenced and as we're seeing in the media and elsewhere, everywhere is talk about recession potentially coming, are we in one, et cetera. We still do have flexibility, of course. And we can certainly temper the addition of head count and temper our costs more generally, should we think that, that's necessary if it's something that's a result of changes in the macro environment.

另一方面，正如我之前提到的，也正如我們在媒體和其他管道中看到的那樣，到處都在討論經濟衰退可能即將到來，我們是否已經身處其中等等。當然，我們仍然擁有一定的靈活性。如果宏觀環境的變化導致我們認為有必要，我們當然可以控制人員增加和整體成本。

So I think we still have lots of levers. And I think we've shown historically that we are able to navigate those waters pretty adeptly should that kind of a situation arise.

所以我認為我們仍然有很多應對之策。而且我認為，從歷史經驗來看，如果發生這種情況，我們有能力相當嫻熟地應對。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Congratulations on the results this would be for Carlos or whomever, but it feels like the retention step-up is clearly a little bit more structural, just given the recent trends in '22 into '23. Is that a function of kind of the Next Gen Payroll engine? Or just where are you seeing that success? Because it's clearly been a super, super outcome post COVID. I think part of our focus was whether or not that starts to normalize or not, but it feels like it's at a structurally higher level.

恭喜卡洛斯或其他相關人員取得這樣的成績，但感覺員工留存率的提升顯然更多是結構性的，從2022年到2023年的趨勢來看就是如此。這是否與新一代薪資管理系統有關？或者只是因為你們看到了哪些方面的成功？因為疫情後的結果確實非常出色。我認為我們關注的重點之一是這種情況是否會趨於正常，但現在看來，它已經達到了更高的結構性水平。

Yes. There probably are some structural factors just because we can see obviously where the retention is stronger. And I think as we mentioned, some of the macroeconomic kind of readjustment that we expected in the down market, we saw some of it just not as much as we expected. But if talk of recession is correct, then out of business and bankruptcies and so forth probably will kind of come back to some kind of a normal level, which is why, as Don mentioned in his remarks, we, once again, plan for a slight decrease in retention in '23. That's really mainly in the down market in terms of the mix that it represents -- the total representative of the mix because everywhere else, we really see some reasonable, what appear to be, structural improvements.

是的。可能存在一些結構性因素，因為我們顯然可以看到哪些地區的客戶留存率較高。正如我們之前提到的，我們預期在市場低迷時期會出現一些宏觀經濟調整，但這些調整的程度不如預期。如果關於經濟衰退的說法是正確的，那麼企業倒閉、破產等等情況可能會恢復到某種正常水準。正因如此，正如唐在演講中提到的，我們再次預期2023年的客戶留存率會略有下降。這主要體現在市場低迷時期所代表的整體客戶組成上——因為在其他地區，我們確實看到了一些合理的、看似結構性的改善。

I wouldn't say that it's really Next Gen Payroll because that's -- you're really going to see that -- the impact of that on sales and market share and so forth in the next couple of years because the majority of our clients are still not enjoying, I think, the benefits, even though, over time, they will, of Next Gen Payroll. So that's really not -- I just want to make sure I was clear on that, that, that is not what's causing the retention improvements.

我不會說這完全是“下一代薪資管理系統”，因為——你真正會看到它對銷售額、市場份額等方面的影響，是在未來幾年。我認為，我們的大多數客戶目前還沒有享受到「下一代薪資管理系統」的好處，儘管隨著時間的推移，他們最終會享受。所以，我只是想澄清一下，這不是導致客戶留存率提升的原因。

But one thing I would point out is I mean -- I know this is a broken record, but we made this big transition from multiple platforms onto 1 in the down market 10 years ago or a little bit more than that. And then more recently, we went through a multiyear effort, which was painful to do that in the mid-market. We have other things going on like new UX and Next Gen Payroll, but those migrations and those consolidations in and of themselves have created some real structural tailwinds, I think, in terms of service, NPS and, ultimately, on the retention standpoint.

但我想指出一點——我知道這話說得有點老生常談，但我們在十年前或更久之前，也就是市場低迷時期，就完成了從多個平台到單一平台的重大轉型。最近，我們又經歷了長達數年的整合，這在中端市場無疑是痛苦的。我們還有其他專案正在進行，例如新的使用者體驗和新一代薪資系統，但我認為，這些遷移和整合本身就為服務、淨推薦值 (NPS) 以及最終的客戶留存率帶來了真正的結構性利好。

It's just a much more -- an easier environment for our own folks to operate in. It's easier for us to invest in less platforms versus more platforms. It's just a much better environment. As you know, we still have work to do in the upmarket. So there's still opportunity there. There's still some opportunity in Employer Services International as well. But we think these structural tailwinds that first helped us in the down market despite the macro, right, because the macro has really a cyclical issue. But overall, excluding cycles, our retention in the down market is up, I said this before, hundreds of basis points higher than it was 10 to 15 years ago.

這為我們自己的員工提供了一個更輕鬆的營運環境。我們更容易投資於更少的平台，而不是更多的平台。這是一個更好的環境。如您所知，我們在高端市場仍有許多工作要做。所以那裡仍然有機會。雇主服務國際業務也存在一些機會。但我們認為，儘管宏觀經濟狀況不佳，但這些結構性利好因素最初幫助我們度過了低迷市場，對吧？因為宏觀經濟確實存在週期性問題。但總體而言，撇開週期因素不談，我們在低迷市場中的客戶留存率，正如我之前所說，比10到15年前高出數百個基點。

And now the mid-market is at record levels and the NPS scores continue to be at record levels. And I don't think we anticipate that going back down. If anything, we see more opportunity there in the mid-market. And our plan would be to continue to do that throughout other parts of ADP to add more structural tailwinds to our retention.

現在，中階市場處於歷史高位，淨推薦值 (NPS) 也持續保持高位。我認為這種情況不會回落。相反，我們看到中端市場蘊藏更多機會。我們的計劃是將這種策略推廣到 ADP 的其他業務領域，從而為客戶留存率帶來更多結構性利好。

Super helpful. And then maybe this is for Don. It looks like the margin guidance, like, 100 to 125 basis points, up from 90. Given the leverage and float and pricing, it seems like a really nice outcome on the pricing side. Is the offset kind of the cost inflation? And where is the cost inflation in the model in '23 relative to where it's been historically?

非常有用。或許這是給唐的。利潤率指引似乎從90個基點上調了100到125個基點。考慮到槓桿率、浮動利率和定價，定價方面的結果看起來相當不錯。這是否與成本通膨有關？ 2023年模型中的成本通膨與歷史水準相比如何？

Yes. I think it's a good observation. I think there's a few things driving. Of course, we talked about more price than we historically have been able to take. And of course, we do we have the tailwinds, if you will, from the client fund interest. So there's certainly -- we need to remember that the reason we're getting the higher interest rates is that we're in a higher inflationary environment. So that's driving the overall cost base and wages.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的觀察。我認為有幾個因素在推動這一趨勢。當然，我們之前討論過價格上漲，這超過了我們以往能夠負擔的範圍。當然，客戶資金的持續成長也為我們提供了有利條件。所以，我們必須記住，利率上升的原因是通膨環境加劇。這推高了整體成本和工資水準。

The other aspect is that we have called out, and we typically haven't called out FX in the past, but we've certainly seen, I think, what we would refer to as pretty dramatic changes in FX headwinds in the fourth quarter compared to what we've seen in typical years. And so we thought that was important to call out. And with 20% of our ES revenue being outside of the U.S. and denominated in Canadian dollars, euros, sterling and Australian dollars [slamming], right, I think all the currencies are essentially down. So when you put all that stuff together, it certainly results in a little bit less of the top line dropping through to margin.

另一方面，我們特別指出，雖然我們過去通常不會特別提及外匯市場，但第四季外匯市場的不利因素確實出現了相當顯著的變化，與往年相比截然不同。因此，我們認為有必要特別指出這一點。此外，我們20%的ES收入來自美國以外地區，以加幣、歐元、英鎊和澳元計價，這些貨幣基本上都在貶值。所以，綜合所有這些因素，最終導致利潤率下降的幅度略有減少。

So that's been our focus. The other thing I'd say is that we do have a little bit of conservatism as we look to the back half. We have to take into account all the things we're reading about and seeing and making sure that we're thinking hard about how prepare should something happen in the back half of the year. So I think those are the primary drivers, to answer your question.

所以這就是我們一直以來的工作重點。另外，我想說的是，展望下半年，我們確實會採取一些保守的策略。我們必須考慮到所有我們看到和了解到的情況，並確保認真思考如何應對下半年可能發生的任何情況。所以，我認為這些就是我們主要考慮的因素，以此來回答你的問題。

And if I can add one thing because you mentioned also price, and it's a big topic, I know for a lot of companies, and a lot of questions about it. And I think it's important for you to understand strategically right at a very high level, regardless of how it flows into the numbers and so forth. Our view on price, we said it for a couple of quarters now, is to kind of keep up with inflation. So I want to make sure it's very clear that we're not achieving our margin improvements or doing anything that would be unusual because I think there might be some companies that are trying to make up revenue gaps or margin gaps with price because there is "cover" out there to do that.

既然您也提到了價格，而且我知道價格對許多公司來說都是一個重要話題，也引發了很多疑問，那麼我再補充一點。我認為，無論價格最終如何影響財務數據等等，從策略層面理解價格都至關重要。過去幾季我們一直強調，我們對價格的看法是盡量跟上通貨膨脹的腳步。所以我想明確一點，我們並沒有透過提高利潤率或採取任何異常措施來實現利潤率的提升，因為我認為有些公司可能會試圖透過價格來彌補收入或利潤率的差距，因為市場上存在著可以彌補這種差距的「掩護」。

But I think when you do that, and I think Don has mentioned this before that we operate in a competitive environment, and we look at what competitors are doing. We look at what's happening in the world, and we're long-term thinkers here so you should assume that our price increases were in line with what's happening with inflationary costs and not anything more than that and not materially less than that.

但我認為，當你這樣做的時候——我想唐之前也提到過——我們身處競爭激烈的環境中，我們會關注競爭對手的動向，關注世界局勢的發展。我們著眼於長遠，所以你應該明白，我們的價格上漲幅度與通貨膨脹成本的上漲幅度相符，既不會超出這個範圍，也不會明顯低於這個範圍。

You've been very consistent on that.

你在這方面一直都很一致。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Congrats on the numbers. I guess my question is, looking at the midterm outlook for Employer Services back in November, I think we talked about the 6% growth rate and you guys are going to be trending above that 6% to 8%. And with the strength in bookings growing over 15%, I just wonder if maybe the midterm outlook was a little low compared to what structurally is going on in the business model that potentially the growth rate's faster than the 6% outlook that you gave over the midterm.

恭喜你們取得這樣的成績。我想問的是，回顧去年11月你們對雇主服務中期前景的展望，當時我們討論的是6%的成長率，而你們現在的成長率預計將超過6%甚至達到8%。再加上預訂量成長超過15%，我就在想，你們的中期展望是不是有點低估了業務模式的結構性變化，實際成長率可能比你們之前預測的6%還要高。

Well, I hope so. I'll let Don comment in a moment, but again, just because I've been doing this for a long time, I just -- I can't get it out of my mind. The way the recurring revenue model kind of works is we love the 15%. And what you just described really comes through in the numbers, that the difference between our bookings and our losses, our strong retention and our strong bookings that the net of that contributed more to Employer Services revenue than I've ever seen in my tenure as CEO, and that is what led this acceleration you just described in ES revenue. So that net new business growth is really the way to grow the top line here.

嗯，我希望如此。我稍後會讓唐發表意見，但再說一遍，因為我從事這行很久了，我就是——我一直忘不了這件事。經常性收入模式的運作方式是，我們很喜歡那15%的分成。你剛才描述的情況確實在數據中得到了體現，我們的預訂量和虧損量之間的差額，以及我們強大的客戶留存率和強勁的預訂量，這些因素共同作用，對雇主服務收入的貢獻比我擔任CEO以來見過的任何時候都要大，而這正是你剛才提到的雇主服務收入加速增長的原因。所以，淨新增業務成長才是真正提升營收的關鍵。

There's other factors in there like pays per control, client funds interest, but that's the core of the business, and we're really happy with that. The challenge, of course, is that we're not forecasting 15% bookings growth again next year. So I would just caution you to -- now the good news is that, that increase in net new business is in our run rate now. And so we don't have to grow by as much next year in terms of that net new business to further accelerate our revenue growth. But I would just caution you in terms of if you do that kind of math. It's hard. It's hard to accelerate the revenue growth rate of this company. We just did it, and it takes a combination of better retention and higher starts, higher sales and new business starting in the upcoming year.

還有其他因素，例如按次付費、客戶資金利息等等，但這才是業務的核心，我們對此非常滿意。當然，挑戰在於我們預計明年預訂量不會再成長15%。所以我想提醒大家——好消息是，淨新增業務的成長已經融入了我們的日常營運。因此，明年我們不需要像去年那樣大幅提高淨新增業務量就能進一步加速營收成長。但我還是要提醒大家，如果你要進行類似的計算，你會發現很難。要加速這家公司的營收成長非常困難。我們剛剛做到了，這需要提高客戶留存率、增加新用戶註冊量、提高銷售額以及在來年啟動新業務等多方面因素的共同作用。

And that 15% really makes a huge difference. But you can see from our guidance that, that is not our expectation next year in terms of bookings. And so you'll experience, hopefully, additional acceleration of revenue growth in ES but not by as much as you had from '22 to '23. Notwithstanding the fact that remember, there's other things in there, moving parts like pays per control, client funds interest and so forth, some of which will give us tailwinds, some of which may be headwinds.

這15%的成長確實意義重大。但從我們的業績指引可以看出，這並非我們明年預訂量的預期。因此，我們希望ES的營收成長能進一步加速，但不會像2022年至2023年那麼強勁。當然，別忘了還有其他因素，例如按控制付費、客戶資金利息等等，其中一些會為我們帶來助力，而有些則可能帶來阻力。

Yes. So Carlos covered off all the main drivers there, of course. I think just once again, let me go back and mention the FX headwinds we're experiencing. So I think when you add that into the mix, I think probably get to a place where we're landing and what we're anticipating, what we're guiding to for the rest of '23.

是的。卡洛斯當然已經涵蓋了所有主要驅動因素。我想再補充一點，我們目前面臨的FX逆風。我認為，把這些因素考慮進去，或許就能讓我們最終確定目標，以及我們對2023年剩餘時間的預期與方向。

Got it. Got it. And then let me ask you another popular question that everybody is getting is just how the model might be different now versus previous recessions just thinking about the resilience potential in the ADP model.

明白了，明白了。接下來我想問大家另一個常被問到的問題，那就是，考慮到ADP模型的韌性潛力，現在的模型與以往的經濟衰退相比會有哪些不同。

I mean, Don, again, will have, I think, a couple of points he could probably make. But I would say, as usual, there's probably puts and takes. I mean, obviously, I'd be -- I wouldn't be a CEO if I didn't say I think our model is better now than it was before, even though I've been through a couple of cycles here myself. So it's not that I'm criticizing anything other than myself if I'm saying that it's better than it was before, but we just talked about the structural retention level.

我的意思是，唐（Don）肯定還會提出幾點看法。但我想說，和往常一樣，一定會有來有往。我的意思是，很顯然，如果我不說我認為我們現在的模式比以前更好，那我就不是CEO了，即便我自己也經歷了幾個週期。所以，我說現在的模式比以前好，不是在批評什麼，只是在批評我自己。我們剛才討論的是結構性留存率。

So even if we have a little bit of a drag in the down market, and by the way, the down market is a larger percent of our overall business than it was 10 to 20 years ago, but still, it's structurally higher by several hundred basis points in and of itself. So even if it goes down a little bit, and it's a little bit bigger part of our mix, I think our retention is just going to hold up better, I would predict, in terms of -- yes, depending obviously on the severity of the recession. That's a huge help because the bigger, obviously, the portion of the revenue that you retain each year, the less dependency you have on bookings in a recession, which tends to be the most sensitive.

所以，即使在市場低迷時期我們受到一些拖累（順便說一句，低迷時期在我們整體業務中所佔的比例比10到20年前要高），但其結構本身仍然高出幾百個基點。因此，即使低迷時期略有下降，在我們業務組合中所佔比例略有增加，我認為我們的客戶留存率也會保持得更好——當然，這取決於經濟衰退的嚴重程度。這至關重要，因為顯然，每年留存的收入比例越高，在經濟衰退時期對預訂量的依賴性就越低，而預訂量往往是最敏感的。

Like historically, when you look at GDP growth and our -- all of our metrics besides pays per control, bookings is something that can be challenging in a severe recession, which to reiterate, we don't see. So we read the same things that everyone else reads. And we know that Fed tightening will lead to slower economic growth, but we really can't see it in our numbers. Like our pays per control number in the fourth quarter was as strong as it was the whole year. You look at the monthly initial unemployment claims, you look at the room that still is there in labor force participation. You look at the number of job openings in comparison to where it was historically, and I just don't see it.

從歷史數據來看，除了人均所得之外，我們所有的指標都顯示GDP成長良好。預訂量在嚴重的經濟衰退中可能會面臨挑戰，但需要重申的是，我們目前並未看到這種情況。所以我們和其他所有人看到的指標一樣。我們知道聯準會收緊貨幣政策會導致經濟成長放緩，但我們的數據並沒有反映出這一點。例如，我們第四季的人均收入與全年一樣強勁。看看每月首次申請失業救濟人數，看看勞動參與率的剩餘空間，看看職缺數量與歷史水準的對比，我都看不到任何衰退的跡象。

So there clearly are pockets that are happening, I think, is part of readjustments because of COVID that are kind of confusing the landscape. And there's clearly some kind of slowdown underway because it just happens when you have Fed tightening, but it's not happening in the labor market, at least not yet.

所以很明顯，目前存在一些局部性問題，我認為這是新冠疫情導致的調整的一部分，而這些調整在某種程度上擾亂了整體格局。聯準會收緊貨幣政策時，經濟成長明顯放緩，但這種情況尚未出現在勞動市場，至少目前還沒有。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Really strong sales. I was just trying to think about attribution of the strength and how you would rank the factors there between better product set that's more relevant or better productivity, expanded sales force, the cycle or secular things around outsourcing taking over versus software. Any interesting observations on your side, Carlos or Maria?

銷售業績非常強勁。我一直在思考這種強勁勢頭的原因，以及你會如何對各種因素進行排序，例如更符合市場需求的更優質的產品組合、更高的生產效率、更強大的銷售團隊、外包業務逐漸取代軟體業務的周期性趨勢等等。卡洛斯和瑪麗亞，你們有什麼有趣的見解嗎？

Yes. Thank you. So definitely a tremendous strength that we saw. I think I called out a few areas. Definitely, the strength that we're seeing in our upmarket continues to excite us for the future. I think you asked about the attribution of strength. And I think it really was broad-based across the business.

是的，謝謝。這確實是我們看到的巨大優勢。我想我已經提到了一些方面。毫無疑問，我們在高端市場展現的優勢持續讓我們對未來充滿信心。我想您問的是這種優勢的來源。我認為它確實遍及整個業務。

But I think from an execution standpoint, it really comes down to the execution of our sales organization and how they've been able to go to market, candidly, really over the last 2 years as it relates to navigating this evolving environment, but more specifically providing value to our clients in a more meaningful way. And we really have seen that evolve over the past year as we've been, really, across each 1 of the segments, helping our clients navigate. As I mentioned, the evolving environment inclusive of all the legislative changes.

但我認為，從執行層面來看，關鍵在於我們銷售團隊的執行力，以及他們在過去兩年中如何開拓市場，坦白地說，是如何應對不斷變化的市場環境，更具體地說，是如何以更有意義的方式為客戶創造價值。過去一年，我們確實看到了這種轉變，因為我們一直在各個細分市場中幫助客戶應對不斷變化的市場環境，包括我提到的所有法律法規的變化。

So I think there's value we're bringing. I think, the strong execution in general across the sales organization and leveraging the entire ecosystem bring that strength, right, which is everything from our marketing investments, our brand investments. I spoke earlier to the head count investment. And so all of this together, I think, has lent itself to a tremendous execution on strength as it relates to the overall performance.

所以我認為我們正在創造價值。我認為，整個銷售團隊強大的執行力以及對整個生態系統的有效利用帶來了這種優勢，這包括我們的行銷投資、品牌投資，以及我之前提到的人員投入。所有這些加在一起，我認為，最終促成了我們整體業績的卓越執行力。

And the only thing I would add to that is Maria and I have been talking for the last 18 months about how -- one of the most important things for our sales organization was really to get productivity at the quota carrier level back to -- and then exceed from a trend line standpoint, where it was, right?

我唯一要補充的是，在過去的 18 個月裡，我和 Maria 一直在討論——對於我們的銷售組織來說，最重要的事情之一就是讓配額承運商的生產力恢復到——然後從趨勢線的角度來看，超越之前的水平，對吧？

So when you think about whether it's GDP trend or price trends or anything like that, you got to get back to where you were, and then you got to get back on that same trend line. Otherwise, you leave a lot of money on the table, right, whether it's the economy or ADP's revenue and bookings growth.

所以，無論你考慮的是GDP趨勢、價格趨勢或其他任何因素，你都必須回到原來的水平，然後回到先前的趨勢線上。否則，你就會錯失很多機會，對吧？無論是經濟整體成長，或是ADP的營收和預訂量成長。

And if -- from an attribution standpoint, again, this -- I think it's important for you to understand this color. Like, we had unbelievable productivity heat growth, and that's why I said that this is the best performance I've ever seen by our sales force. And clearly, some of it is because we were in recovery mode, but sales forces naturally generally have -- not that I know because I was never a salesperson, but I guess I've been around long enough to be hopefully an honorary member.

如果──從歸因的角度來看──我認為你們理解這個顏色很重要。例如，我們的生產力成長令人難以置信，所以我才說這是我們銷售團隊有史以來最好的表現。顯然，部分原因是我們當時正處於復甦階段，但銷售團隊通常都會有這樣的表現——我當然不是說我了解銷售，因為我從來沒做過銷售，但我估計我入行時間夠長，應該算是這個行業的榮譽成員了。

But when you tell sales force, okay, you got to grow -- we're going to grow our head count by a few percentage points, and then we got to grow our productivity 2 to 3 percentage points, that's the typical year, right? And that's hard in a typical year. When you tell a sales force you have to grow your productivity close to 20%, even though it's because it went down 20%, that's freaking hard to do, very hard to do psychologically.

但當你告訴銷售團隊，好吧，你們必須成長——我們要增加幾個百分點的員工人數，然後你們的生產力也要提高2到3個百分點，這通常是每年的情況，對吧？而這在通常情況下都很難做到。當你告訴銷售團隊，你們的生產力必須提高近20%，即便這是因為生產力下降了20%，這真的很難做到，在心理上尤其困難。

Anybody who's in sales, I think, understands that. And so these percentage growth numbers that we have and the productivity growth numbers that we have, honestly, are incredibly just gratifying because I really thought this was going to be hard. I was, of course, keeping my poker face on and just telling everybody because we have to do it, we have to do it, and we did it. And so most of this growth came from productivity and not from head count because, as we've talked about, we actually had some challenges up until the fourth quarter in terms of achieving our head count objectives, not by lack of trying, by the way, and not because we were trying to save money, if we were doing everything we could and it was just a difficult labor market.

我想，任何從事銷售的人都能理解這一點。所以，我們取得的這些百分比成長率和生產力成長率，說實話，真的令人無比欣慰，因為我真的以為這會很難。當然，我一直強裝鎮定，不停地告訴大家我們必須做到，我們必須做到，而我們也做到了。所以，大部分成長都來自於生產力的提升，而不是員工人數的增加。正如我們之前討論過的，直到第四季度，我們在實現員工人數目標方面確實遇到了一些挑戰，但這並非因為我們沒有努力，也不是因為我們想省錢——我們已經竭盡所能了，只是當時的勞動力市場行情不佳。

The good news is, is in the fourth quarter, as Maria has mentioned, we really did quite well, and we're in a great position head count-wise now. But the '22 story is all about productivity. And that is an unbelievable accomplishment for our sales force, and it's across the board.

好消息是，正如瑪麗亞所提到的，我們在第四季度表現非常出色，目前人員配置也處於非常有利的位置。但2022年的關鍵在於生產力。這對我們的銷售團隊來說是一項了不起的成就，而且是全方位的。

It is. And just to provide some actual numbers to that. So we reported a $1.7 billion in Employer Services bookings. That does -- that is a record as mentioned, and it does exceed the other record, which was pre pandemic in fiscal '19 at $1.6 billion. And so that really, in the end, speaks to some of this additional productivity that's now new to our clients, if you will. But Carlos has -- is spot-on. We did initially tell the sales force, we will add head count and you have to grow faster. But in the end, we didn't have the head count and they grew that much faster, which is why I am very bullish and excited as we step into the fiscal year with more sellers, more asset quota carriers to really couple the strength that we've had in productivity with now finally more sellers to go get after it.

確實如此。為了提供一些實際數據，我們報告稱，雇主服務訂單達到了17億美元。如同前面提到的，這確實創下了紀錄，而且超過了疫情前2019財年的16億美元紀錄。所以，最終，這確實體現了我們客戶如今獲得的額外生產力。卡洛斯說得非常對。我們最初確實告訴銷售團隊，我們會增加人手，你們必須加快成長速度。但最終，我們並沒有增加人手，而他們的成長速度卻遠遠超乎預期。正因如此，我對新財年的前景非常樂觀和興奮，因為我們將擁有更多的銷售人員和資產配額持有者，這將真正結合我們以往在生產力方面的優勢，以及現在更多的銷售人員，讓我們能夠全力以赴地去爭取更多利潤。

Our next question comes from Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的 Dan Dolev。

Really nice results. I'm very happy to see the strength in the enterprise that you called out as you think being a splice. Can you maybe tell us, like, I know you don't parse out the growth between. But if you did, I would love to hear it in terms of the different subverticals. But on a bigger picture, can you tell us, like, what types of firms -- are you now regaining share in some of those, like, lower end of the large enterprise and sort of mid-sized firm it came from and how these conversations are different now versus, say, a few years ago.

成果真不錯。我很高興看到您提到的那家企業（您認為它就像一個拼接點）的優勢。您能否跟我們說說，我知道您不會詳細分析各個細分領域的成長情況，但如果您能的話，我很想了解不同子領域的成長情況。從更宏觀的角度來看，您能否告訴我們，您現在正在重新奪回哪些類型企業的市場份額，例如大型企業和中型企業（您之前主要面向這些企業）的市場份額？現在與幾年前相比，這些對話又有哪些不同？

Yes, I think you mentioned -- we were having a little trouble catching the entire question. So maybe -- I'll maybe try to give a little bit of color, maybe you can repeat again or ask us -- ask the question again. But I think you said something about the lower end of the enterprise space and kind of where the strength in sales is coming from except though, so I think, just to repeat what Maria said, I think it is across the board.

是的，我想您剛才提到了—我們有點沒聽清楚您的問題。所以，也許——我試著補充一些細節，也許您可以再重複一遍或再問一次。但我想您剛才提到了企業級市場的低端部分，以及銷售強勁的來源，不過，我想，就像瑪麗亞說的那樣，我認為這種情況是普遍存在的。

But that is one -- the reason I'm picking up on it, like this is -- it's a really good news story for us. So our Workforce Now platform, we made this strategic decision 2, 3 years ago. It makes sense because it fits well on the lower end of the enterprise space. And it's really been a home run for us there. So against certain competitors, it's really very, very effective, and we're selling a lot of units in that kind of lower end of the upmarket space for us as we continue with the rollout of Next Gen HCM, which is really intended to further upmarket and eventually for global.

但這就是我之所以特別關注它的原因之一——這對我們來說確實是個好消息。我們的 Workforce Now 平台是我們兩、三年前所做的策略決策。這個決策很有意義，因為它非常適合企業級市場的中低階市場。事實證明，它在這方面取得了巨大的成功。面對某些競爭對手，它非常有效，而且在我們持續推出下一代 HCM（旨在進一步提升市場定位，最終面向全球）的過程中，我們在中低階市場也取得了巨大的銷售業績。

In the meantime, we're really having a lot of success in the lower end of the upmarket with our Workforce Now platform. And if you want to maybe repeat your question one more time, we'll give another try.

同時，我們的 Workforce Now 平台在高端市場的低端領域取得了巨大的成功。如果您想再問一次問題，我們會再次嘗試解答。

Yes. No, I think that sort of answered the question. I wanted to know, and I apologize you couldn't hear me before. I wanted to know, like, how the conversations are -- like, how the conversations are different today when you're with those clients versus, say, 3 years ago? Because I'm sure there's been a tremendous change given the results.

是的。不，我想這已經回答了這個問題。我想知道，很抱歉之前您沒聽清楚我的話。我想知道的是，您現在和這些客戶的談話方式與三年前有什麼不同？因為根據結果來看，我相信肯定發生了巨大的變化。

There has been a tremendous -- it's a good observation. There has been tremendous change. I think Carlos hit the nail on the head and the lower end of the upmarket, it's one of the reasons we cited the award and recognition we recently received from Gartner because the conversation around our offering of Workforce Now in that lower end is definitely resonating for several reasons. One is it's a best-in-class product as Gartner even acknowledges and the users that were surveyed for that award. But moreover, it's also the speed by which we can execute and really take these enterprise customers and turn them into active clients and so meeting a lot of different needs from a product perspective, from a timeline perspective.

確實發生了巨大的變化——這是一個很好的觀察。變化非常巨大。我認為卡洛斯說得非常到位，高階市場的低階部分正是我們最近獲得Gartner獎項和認可的原因之一，因為我們針對低階市場推出的Workforce Now產品確實引起了廣泛關注，原因有很多。首先，正如Gartner以及參與該獎項調查的用戶所認可的那樣，它是一款一流的產品。更重要的是，我們能夠快速執行，真正將這些企業客戶轉化為活躍用戶，從而從產品角度和時間安排角度滿足各種不同的需求。

I think in the upper end of the market, certainly, the conversation over the last 3 years has evolved. A big piece of that conversation is the global discussion and our ability to talk to much larger U.S. enterprise customers and other enterprise customers across the globe around our multi-country offerings and how we're thinking about the -- how they are thinking about their strategic direction on HCM on the global front. And so I think the conversation continues to evolve on both ends of the spectrum of the upmarket. And we're certainly in a position to have very formidable conversations and transformation these [guys] are thinking about, how they are thinking about their strategic direction on HCM on the global front.

我認為，在高端市場，過去三年來的討論無疑發生了變化。其中一個重要面向是全球化的探討，以及我們與美國大型企業客戶和全球其他企業客戶就我們的跨國產品和服務進行交流的能力，並了解他們如何思考其在全球範圍內的人力資本管理 (HCM) 戰略方向。因此，我認為高端市場各層面的討論都在持續發展。我們完全有能力與這些客戶就其在全球範圍內的人力資本管理 (HCM) 策略方向的思考進行深入的對話和轉型。

And so I think the conversation continues to evolve on both ends of the spectrum of the upmarket, and we're certainly in a position to have very formidable conversations and transformation discussions with our clients in that space.

因此，我認為關於高端市場的對話仍在不斷發展，我們當然有能力與該領域的客戶進行非常深入的對話和轉型討論。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Great to see all of the years of hard work really pay off here this year. So congratulations on the results. Wondering with regards to new bookings, I mean, $2 billion in total, $1.7 billion in ES. How much of that is split between new logos relative to upsells? And how would you characterize your expectations on that front for the coming year?

很高興看到多年的努力在今年終於有了回報。祝賀你們取得如此佳績！關於新訂單，我想問一下，總金額達到 20 億美元，其中 ES 訂單金額為 17 億美元。這其中新客戶和追加銷售各佔多少比例？您對明年這方面的預期如何？

Thanks, Mark, and thank you for acknowledging the strong performance in bookings. There's really no news to report here. I think we've cited it for years, really, the split between new logos and client business. It really remains at that 50%, kind of 50-50 going forward, and that's really what we expect heading into fiscal '23.

謝謝馬克，也謝謝你對預訂量強勁表現的認可。其實這方面沒什麼新消息要說。我們多年來一直強調新客戶和現有客戶業務的比例。這個比例基本上維持在50%，未來也將維持50/50，這也是我們對2023財年的預期。

Great. And then with regards to the forecast, Don, you gave us a bit of a cadence -- a sense for margins. How would you characterize it for revenue? And specifically, what I'm interested in is you did mention the interest on client funds is going to be back-end loaded. But at the same time, we've got pays per control being modeled up 2% to 3%, even though people are starting to call for a potential recession and potentially, a decline in employment. So I'm wondering, how are you thinking about that part of the model. And are there any things that you would call out with regards to just revenue trends as we build out the models for the coming year?

好的。關於預測，唐，你剛剛提到了一些節奏——一些關於利潤率的預測。那麼，你要如何描述收入方面的情況呢？我特別感興趣的是，你提到客戶資金的利息將後期計息。但同時，儘管人們開始預測可能出現經濟衰退和就業下降，我們仍然將以持倉付費的比例上調了2%到3%。所以我想知道，你是如何看待模型中這部分的？在建構來年模型的過程中，你對收入趨勢有什麼需要特別指出的嗎？

Yes. So Mark, just going back to the first part of your question. You mentioned the deceleration of margin that I mentioned. And of course, we talked about the increase in sales head count and specifically because it is a meaningful quarter 1 of this year to quarter 1 of '22. So we do think that's going to have a bit of a drag. There are, of course, some other factors, general inflation, general -- et cetera, but -- and we've taken price Carlos described and took you through our price thinking, which is pretty consistent to what we've discussed over the last number of quarters. So we do expect to see a little bit of deterioration in margin percentage through the first quarter. I think that's understood.

是的。馬克，回到你問題的第一部分。你提到了我之前提到的利潤率成長放緩的問題。當然，我們也討論了銷售人員數量的增加，尤其因為今年第一季和2022年第一季是兩個重要的季度。所以我們認為這會造成一定的拖累。當然，還有一些其他因素，例如通貨膨脹等等。我們採納了卡洛斯所描述的價格策略，並向你闡述了我們的定價思路，這與我們過去幾季討論的內容基本一致。因此，我們預計第一季的利潤率會略有下降。我想這一點大家都能理解。

And then as interest rates continue to -- or as interest rates go higher and as we have the opportunity, we're going to see higher interest towards the last 3 quarters of the year. But overall, we're kind of looking at pretty even top line revenue quarter-by-quarter through the balance of the year. No big changes at all in terms of growth rates quarter-by-quarter through '23 compared to '22. So if you're modeling growth, you should be pretty comfortable to model consistent growth across the top line quarter-by-quarter.

隨著利率持續走高，我們預計今年最後三個季度利率將上升。但總體而言，我們預計今年剩餘時間各季度的營收將保持相對穩定。與2022年相比，2023年各季度的成長率不會有太大變化。因此，如果您正在建立成長模型，您可以放心，營收將逐季保持穩定成長。

And that doesn't mean that you should model or that we modeled everything consistently throughout the quarters. So -- because I do have to make a comment on your point that it sounded like you thought we were being aggressive, which would not be typical of us to model 2% to 3% pays per control, when everyone's thinking there's going to be a recession. I would tell you that the fourth quarter, you saw what our pays per control growth was.

但這並不意味著你應該或我們每季都以一致的方式進行建模。所以——因為我確實需要就你剛才的觀點做些說明，你似乎認為我們過於激進，這不符合我們的一貫作風，畢竟在大家都認為經濟衰退即將到來的時候，我們設定的每股收益增長率為2%到3%。我想告訴你的是，在第四季度，你已經看到了我們每股盈餘的成長情況。

And I can tell you that we have visibility into July. And it's hard to believe that for the whole year, it would be less than 2% to 3%. But then you can assume that if, for example, the first couple of months, at least, since we have some visibility of that already, are in the 6% to 7% range because that's where we're kind of exiting and you can do the math, right? So you're probably -- this is just to give you a color in terms of what some of our assumptions are in our operating plan because I think Don mentioned maybe a bit of conservatism in the back half.

我可以告訴你們，我們對七月的情況已經有所了解。很難相信全年的成長率會低於2%到3%。但是，你們可以假設，例如，至少前幾個月（我們已經對此有所了解），增長率會在6%到7%之間，因為我們大致會在這個範圍內退出市場，你們可以自己算算，對吧？所以，我這麼說只是為了讓你們了解我們營運計畫中的一些假設，因為我想唐提到過，在後半程可能會採取一些保守的做法。

We probably have reasonable continuation of trends because that's the way trends go on pays per control in the first half. And then you'd probably expect the second half of the year to have little to no pays per control growth. They're somewhere in that neighborhood.

我們預計目前的趨勢將基本延續，因為上半年每股盈餘的趨勢通常是如此。然後，我們大概會預期下半年每股盈餘的成長幅度很小甚至沒有成長。情況大致如此。

It's also hard for us to model a big negative growth in pays per control just because of all the factors we mentioned in the labor market. That doesn't mean that it won't happen in '24 or late in '23 or at some point in history, but it doesn't seem likely over the course of our fiscal year. But we're clearly expecting some slowdown in the second half.

由於我們先前提到的勞動市場許多因素，我們很難預測每位控制人員的薪酬會大幅負成長。這並不意味著這種情況不會在2024年、2023年末或歷史上的某個時候發生，但就我們本財年而言，這種可能性似乎不大。不過，我們顯然預計下半年經濟成長會放緩。

Carlos, you read my mind in terms of just the way I was thinking about the characterization and then thinking like, okay, this is probably what you're thinking in terms of the way it's going to unfold. So that's directly in line. Can I just ask one more question? Just on Workforce Now, would you expect Next Gen Payroll? What's the expectation in terms of the number of clients that would have Next Gen Payroll within the Workforce Now contingent by the end of the year?

卡洛斯，你簡直說出了我的心聲，我完全理解了角色塑造的想法，然後我又想，好吧，這可能就是你對劇情發展走向的設想。所以，我們完全一致。我可以再問一個問題嗎？關於 Workforce Now，你預期下一代薪資管理（Next Gen Payroll）會推出嗎？今年底，有多少 Workforce Now 的客戶預計會採用下一代薪資管理？

In terms of new business bookings? Because obviously, we just want to make we answer the question correctly. It will only affect -- obviously, we're not even talking about migrations yet even though at some point, that will happen and...

就新業務預訂而言？因為很顯然，我們只是想確保答案正確。這只會影響——顯然，我們現在甚至還沒談到遷移，儘管在某個時候，遷移肯定會發生…

That's what exactly. Are we going to do any migrations over the course of this year?

正是如此。我們今年會進行任何遷移嗎？

No.

不。

Our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

I wanted to ask if you are seeing or expect to see any divergence in the kind of hiring or macro -- hiring environment macro impact between the U.S. and Europe. I guess the broader question is does your guidance assume a tougher environment in Europe relative to the U.S. or something similar?

我想問一下，您是否觀察到或預期美國和歐洲在招聘類型或宏觀層面（例如招聘環境的宏觀影響）方面存在任何差異？更廣泛地說，您的指導意見是否假設歐洲的招募環境比美國更嚴峻，或者情況類似？

Don probably has the details, but I can give you some high-level color that pays per control growth, and I know you're not asking about historical, but as we gather the data, I just want to tell you that pays per control growth is very strong in Employer Services International as well. And part of that, of course, is because of what we're coming off of, right, which were these lockdowns and these high unemployment rates kind of across the globe. So I would say international has performed similarly. But it is safe to assume that we see probably challenges given what's happening in the macro environment with energy costs and the war and so forth in our international business. And I don't know, Don, if you have...

唐可能掌握了詳細信息，但我可以先給你一些關於每控制權薪酬增長的概括性信息。我知道你不是在問歷史數據，但隨著我們收集數據的不斷深入，我想告訴你，雇主服務國際業務的每控制權薪酬增長也非常強勁。當然，部分原因是由於我們剛剛擺脫了疫情封鎖和全球高失業率的困境。所以我認為國際業務的表現也類似。但考慮到宏觀環境的變化，例如能源成本上漲、戰爭等等，我們可以預見國際業務可能會面臨一些挑戰。唐，我不知道你是否…

No. Carlos, I think those points are valid. Certainly, what happens with energy on the on the -- in particular, is going to have some impact on results. But beyond that, this is a little bit of the conundrum that we talked about earlier about where we are versus what people are talking about. So as much as everyone is predicting a recession, et cetera, unemployment rates in the Eurozone are at 6.1%, which is an all-time low. Unemployment rates in Canada are as low as they were. Even before I started working in 1974, unemployment rates in Australia, a 50-year low.

不，卡洛斯，我認為這些觀點很有道理。當然，能源領域的發展——尤其是能源領域的發展——肯定會對結果產生一定影響。但除此之外，這有點像我們之前討論過的難題，即我們目前的處境與人們的預測之間存在著差距。儘管大家都在預測經濟衰退等等，但歐元區的失業率只有6.1%，創歷史新低。加拿大的失業率也處於歷史低點。甚至在我1974年開始工作之前，澳洲的失業率就已降至50年來的最低水準。

So we've got this situation where there seems to be a lot of employment, yet all this risk and worry about recession. So although, come back to your question, are we a little bit more concerned about what could happen in EMEA in particular as a result of what's going on with Ukraine, prices, et cetera? A little bit more concerned, yes. Did we think about that when we put our plans together, to some extent, yes.

所以我們現在面臨的情況是，就業情況看似一片大好，但同時又有經濟衰退的風險和擔憂。回到你的問題，我們是否更擔心烏克蘭局勢、物價波動等因素可能對歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）造成的影響？是的，我們確實更擔心一些。我們在製定計劃時是否考慮到了這一點？在某種程度上，是的。

You should point out that you started working in 1974 when you were 12 years old.

你應該指出，你從1974年就開始工作了，當時你才12歲。

Well, I say I'm 54 or so, 54 or so.

嗯，我說我大概54歲左右，大概54歲左右。

That's very helpful. A follow-up question, just to update us on M&A capital allocation. Are you shifting your approach at all? Are you seeing incremental opportunity out there, given the turmoil evaluations in the marketplace, potential acquisition targets? Or is it just sort of steady as she goes in terms of no change?

這很有幫助。還有一個後續問題，想請您更新一下併購資金配置方面的狀況。您是否在調整策略？鑑於當前市場評估的動盪以及潛在收購目標，您是否看到了新的投資機會？還是說，您的策略依然保持不變？

Yes. I think for now, it's pretty much steady as you go. I mean, certainly, you can see the valuations have dropped across the board. And things that were really expensive in January are still just expensive. Things are still expensive. They've come down off of historic highs. So there's not exactly what I would call a bunch of bargains out there.

是的。我覺得目前來看，市場基本上保持穩定。當然，你可以看到所有股票的估值都下降了。一月價格很高的股票現在仍然很貴。它們的價格仍然很高，雖然已經從歷史高點回落了。所以，目前市面上並沒有很多真正意義上的便宜貨。

There's also not a lot of people who are coming forward looking to sell their properties, because prices are down. So I would say it's steady as she goes, and we'll continue to do what we've done and look for things that work for us strategically, look for adjacencies that make sense should they arise. But really steady as she goes, really no change to our overall policy.

由於房價下跌，現在想賣房的人也不多。所以我覺得一切都會保持穩定，我們會繼續沿用之前的做法，尋找對我們有利的策略，尋找合適的鄰近地塊。總之，一切都會保持穩定，我們的整體政策不會有任何改變。

Our next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Don, you called out a 260 basis point margin increase in PEO year-over-year in part driven by a favorable workers' compensation reserve adjustment. How much was that adjustment? And how should we think about this item for fiscal '23?

唐，你提到PEO業務利潤率年增260個基點，部分原因是工傷賠償準備調整有利。調整額是多少？我們該如何看待2023財年的這項調整？

Yes. So I guess the short answer is we get adjustments on a regular basis, and they've been favorable for us. We look at the workers' compensation experience over a number of years, and we get external third parties to do an assessment as to whether or not it's appropriate to book any of those adjustments. And this year, we've been fortunate.

是的。所以簡單來說，我們會定期收到調整通知，而這些調整對我們有利。我們會回顧多年來的工傷賠償情況，並委託外部第三方機構進行評估，以確定是否應該計入任何調整。而今年，我們很幸運。

We don't typically forecast those numbers in any greater detail simply because we do have to rely on the experience rating that the insurance companies bring to us. And so without trying to disclose exactly what the numbers were, I would say they were favorable, and we'll have to wait as the month provides to see what's going to happen in '23.

我們通常不會對這些數字進行更詳細的預測，因為我們必須依賴保險公司提供的經驗評級。因此，在不透露具體數字的情況下，我只能說情況比較樂觀，至於2023年的發展趨勢，我們還需要拭目以待。

I mean we're disclosing it in our 10-K, so we can..

我的意思是，我們在10-K文件中披露了這一點，所以我們可以…

Yes, it was $40 million for the quarter, David, indicating that compares to last year's about $5 million. And most of that was as we headed into the quarter in the forecast and guidance. So it wasn't a big departure from what we had expected.

是的，戴維，本季營收為4,000萬美元，而去年同期約為500萬美元。這主要是因為我們在本季初就做出了預測和指引。所以，實際營收與我們的預期並沒有太大偏差。

But I think what Don was trying to say, though, about '23 is that it's clearly a headwind, right? So as we -- as you kind of do your modeling and you think about margins, it's a headwind, not because there's an operating performance issue or whatnot, just because we had a big benefit in '22, and we're not planning for a big benefit in '23, although we're always hopeful that we will get some benefit. That's historically been our experience is that we do get some "reserve release." It's probably not as big in '23 as in '22, but it might not be as big a headwind as it appears now just because of the numbers.

但我認為唐想表達的是，關於2023年，它顯然是一個不利因素，對吧？所以，當我們——當你進行建模並考慮利潤率時——就會發現這是一個不利因素，這並非因為營運業績或其他方面存在問題，而是因為我們在2022年獲得了巨大的收益，而我們預計2023年不會獲得同樣的收益，儘管我們始終希望能夠獲得一些收益。根據我們以往的經驗，我們確實會獲得一些「儲備釋放」。 2023年的收益可能不會像2022年那麼大，但從數字上看，它可能不像現在看起來那麼大的不利因素。

Just as a quick follow-up, Don, in the guidance you've given for extended investment strategy, client fund interest to be up about $200 million to $220 million year-over-year in fiscal '23. How should we think about the incremental margin on that additional revenue? Are you applying additional expenses against it? Or should we think about it flowing through at some set margin?

唐，我還有一個後續問題。您在先前給予的長期投資策略指引中提到，2023財年客戶基金利息收入將年增約2億至2.2億美元。我們該如何看待這部分新增收入的利潤率？您是否會將其計入額外支出？還是應該以既定利潤率計算？

Yes. So I think there are other things going on, of course. We mentioned the inflationary environment, which is why we have the higher interest rates. We mentioned the FX headwinds we have. So all things in, we're still expecting and we're still very happy and very proud of the operating margin improvements we're getting. We think we still have good opportunity for margin improvements ex-client fund interest going forward. So I'd say that right now, our expectations are for a pretty balanced incremental margin from both of those factors.

是的。當然，我認為還有其他因素在起作用。我們提到了通膨環境，這也是我們實施高利率的原因。我們也提到了外匯市場面臨的不利因素。綜上所述，我們仍然對目前所取得的營業利潤率提升感到滿意和自豪。我們認為，在扣除客戶資金利息支出後，未來仍有提升利潤率的良好機會。因此，我認為目前我們對這兩個因素所帶來的利潤率增量預期相當均衡。

So we are, of course, as we mentioned, we are spending some more money. We're investing in sales head count. We have higher costs as a result of inflation, some of it is offset by price. But we are letting a substantial amount fall to the bottom line. But we are obviously in this for the long term, so we'll take the opportunity to invest in the business and make sure that we have the right balance between margin growth and preparing ourselves for continued success in the future years.

所以，正如我們之前提到的，我們當然會增加一些支出。我們正在增加銷售人員。由於通貨膨脹，我們的成本上升了，雖然部分成本可以透過價格上漲來抵消，但相當一部分會直接計入利潤。不過，我們顯然著眼於長遠發展，因此我們會抓住機會投資業務，確保在利潤成長和為未來幾年的持續成功做好準備之間取得適當的平衡。

But I think that stream of revenue, we would generally see it as a 100% margin just to be completely clear. If that itself is the question, do we apply expenses against those revenues, then the answer is I think we've -- it felt like a trick question, because you've noticed for a long time that we've been clear for a long -- like, on the way down, we always say it's 100%.

但我認為，為了完全明確起見，我們通常會把這部分收入視為100%的利潤率。如果問題本身在於，我們是否要從這些收入中扣除費用，那麼答案是——我覺得這像是一個陷阱問題，因為您已經註意到，我們一直以來都明確表示——比如，在下降的過程中，我們總是說它是100%。

It hurts us, right, because there's really no expenses that go away when that interest income goes away. So likewise, we would want to be transparent and acknowledge that on the way up, it's 100% margin. But I wasn't sure if it was a trick question or it sounds like it was.

這確實會給我們造成損失，因為利息收入減少並不會減少任何實際的開支。所以，我們也想坦誠承認，在收益成長的過程中，利潤率是100%。但我不太確定這是否是個陷阱問題，聽起來好像是這樣。

No, I was just trying to understand how much of that incremental revenue would flow through to the bottom line since Don had talked a lot about investment initiatives and you had underscored growth in sales force head count. But very responsive, I appreciate it.

不，我只是想了解這些新增收入中有多少最終會轉化為利潤，因為唐恩談了很多投資計劃，而你也強調了銷售人員數量的成長。不過，你的回覆非常及時，我很感激。

David, I'll just add one clarification. You said incremental revenue. We did make the point in the prepared remarks that it's the net impact of the portfolio that would be 100% incremental margin, so that there is a cost offset and it's the short-term borrowing cost associated with the portfolio strategy.

大衛，我再補充一點。你提到了增量收入。我們在準備好的發言稿中已經指出，投資組合的淨影響將帶來100%的增量利潤，因此存在成本抵消，而這部分成本是與投資組合策略相關的短期借貸成本。

We have time for one more question, and that question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題，這個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Samad Samana。

I just wanted to maybe circle back on the price increases. I know that inflation is a big driver of the maybe more than normal amount. Can you just maybe help us understand, would that put the company back on track if I think about the pause and increases in maybe fiscal '21 during COVID? Would it be kind of linear from pre-COVID levels if we just thought about the price increases compounding? Or would it put you ahead of that because of inflation? And Carlos, can you just remind us, do those price increases tend to stick if inflation starts to roll over?

我只是想再跟您確認一下價格上漲的問題。我知道通貨膨脹是導致價格上漲幅度可能高於正常水平的主要原因。您能否幫我們理解一下，如果我考慮到疫情期間暫停和可能在2021財年進行的漲價，公司能否重回正軌？如果我們只考慮價格上漲的複利效應，價格是否會從疫情前的水平線性成長？或者，由於通貨膨脹，價格上漲反而會提早結束？卡洛斯，您能否提醒我們一下，如果通貨膨脹開始回落，這些價格上漲是否會持續下去？

Yes. I think, again, strategically, and maybe Danny and Don can give more specifics on the numbers, but I wouldn't characterize what we did as being out-of-step with the market or there was a pause for a few months. But our price increases -- our intention was that our price increases during COVID were reflective of the inflation environment at that time as well. We did pause for a few months because, timing-wise, we just thought -- and particularly in 2020, that it was inappropriate to be giving clients price increases 1 or 2 months into a global pandemic. But we eventually did some price increases, but we did very modest price increases because inflation was near 0 for some period of time.

是的。我認為，從策略角度來看，或許丹尼和唐可以提供更具體的數字，但我不會把我們的做法描述為與市場脫節，或者說暫停了幾個月。但我們的價格上漲——我們的初衷是希望在新冠疫情期間的價格上漲能夠反映當時的通膨環境。我們確實暫停了幾個月，因為從時機來看，尤其是在2020年，我們認為在全球疫情爆發一兩個月後就向客戶提價是不合適的。但我們最終還是漲價了，只是漲幅非常小，因為在一段時間內通膨率接近零。

So I would -- I don't know if that answers -- if -- I'm trying to be responsive, but I think in general, we are always trying to remain kind of in-step with the market and still be competitive because our #1 goal is to gain market share. And what -- the trap that is easy to fall into when you're a large company like ours is you can take price and take it higher than maybe you should be.

所以我想說——我不知道這樣回答是否能解答你的疑問——我盡量回答得當，但總的來說，我們始終努力與市場保持同步，並保持競爭力，因為我們的首要目標是擴大市場份額。而像我們這樣的大公司很容易陷入的陷阱是，定價過高。

You can usually do that multiple times and you can do that for a while, but it just doesn't work forever because of just the law of economics and large numbers and not because of competition. And so our intention -- it's important for you to understand that strategically is we want to grow and we want to gain market share. And to do that, we have to be competitive in terms of our products, our service and also our price. And that's -- so it's important when we do pricing actions, either on new business or on our existing book of business, that we remain in line with what's happening in the general market and with our competitors.

通常情況下，你可以多次這樣做，也可以持續一段時間，但這並非競爭所致，而是因為經濟學規律和數量效應，它不可能永遠奏效。因此，我們的策略目標是──這一點你必須明白──我們希望發展壯大，並擴大市場佔有率。為了實現這一目標，我們必須在產品、服務和價格方面都保持競爭力。所以，無論針對新業務或現有業務，我們在製定價格策略時，都必須與整體市場和競爭對手的定價策略保持一致。

Great. And good to see the strong results.

太好了。很高興看到這麼好的結果。

This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I'm pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我很高興將節目交給卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，請他作總結發言。

Thank you. I think we're very happy with the quarter, as we said. I'm not sure what else I could say other than what I said about our sales performance, which I think is definitely the best I've seen in a long time. And we talked a lot about our retention and some of the structural issues that are happening there. So it's hard to be more pleased about that.

謝謝。正如我們之前所說，我們對本季的業績非常滿意。除了銷售業績之外，我實在想不出還能補充什麼，我認為這是我們近年來見過的最佳業績。我們也重點討論了客戶留存率以及這方面存在的一些結構性問題。所以，我對這些方面都非常滿意。

But I do want to reiterate again how happy we are with our organization and our team. First, we start with COVID and all the uncertainty that, that created, everybody having to work from home. Then we have all these regulatory changes, some of them very positive like the PPP loans, the ERTC, that happened across the world. And while we're then in the middle of that pandemic, we're telling our associates that they got to work weekends and nights because we've got to keep up with all of these regulatory changes and we've got to help our clients.

但我還是要再次強調，我們對我們的組織和團隊非常滿意。首先，新冠疫情帶來了許多不確定性，每個人都必須居家辦公。然後，我們又經歷了一系列監管政策的變化，其中一些非常積極，例如全球範圍內的薪資保護計劃（PPP）貸款和員工稅收抵免（ERTC）。即便在疫情肆虐之際，我們仍然要求員工週末和晚上加班，因為我們必須跟上所有這些監管政策的變化，並且必須為客戶提供幫助。

And then as soon as that starts to abate a little bit, we get this great reshuffle and we start having staffing challenges, which we overcame in terms of being able to add the staffing and so forth. And so we ask our associates to once again work harder, put in the extra effort. And every time we've asked, they've come through for us. So -- and they've come through, more importantly, for our clients. We really do provide critical services across the world to our clients. And it was very, very important for our organization to come through for our clients.

然後，當這種情況開始有所緩解時，我們又經歷了一次大規模的重組，人員配備方面也出現了挑戰。不過，我們最終克服了這些困難，增加了人手等等。因此，我們再次要求員工更加努力工作，付出額外的努力。而每次我們提出要求，他們都全力以赴，不負眾望。更重要的是，他們也為我們的客戶提供了至關重要的服務。我們確實為世界各地的客戶提供關鍵服務。因此，對我們公司而言，能夠不負眾望、不負眾望至關重要。

And I just want to, again, thank our associates for making it through so many ups and downs, where we just keep asking for a little bit more, and they keep delivering. So I want to thank them once again for your attention and your interest and the great questions, and we look forward to talking again in the next quarter. Thank you.

我再次衷心感謝我們的同事們，感謝他們一路以來的堅持和付出，無論我們提出多少要求，他們都始終不負眾望。感謝大家的關注、興趣和提出的寶貴問題，我們期待在下個季度再次與大家交流。謝謝。

This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

節目到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。