自動資料處理 (ADP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. After the speaker's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Danyal Hussain, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好。我的名字是米歇爾，我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 ADP 的 2022 財年第四季度財報電話會議。我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中。演講者演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Danyal Hussain 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle, and apologies to everyone for the brief delay, and welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Participating today are Carlos Rodriguez, our CEO; Maria Black, our President; and Don McGuire, our CFO.

謝謝你，米歇爾，並為短暫的延遲向大家道歉，並歡迎大家參加 ADP 的 2022 財年第四季度財報電話會議和網絡直播。今天參加的有我們的首席執行官 Carlos Rodriguez；我們的總裁瑪麗亞·布萊克；和我們的首席財務官 Don McGuire。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早上早些時候，我們發布了本季度的業績。我們的收益材料可在 SEC 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.adp.com 上找到，您還可以在其中找到今天電話會議隨附的投資者介紹。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description of these items along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計原則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且排除了某些項目的影響。這些項目的描述以及非公認會計原則措施與最具可比性公認會計原則措施的對賬可以在我們的收益發布中找到。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. With that, let me turn it over to Carlos.

今天的電話會議還將包含涉及未來事件並涉及一些風險的前瞻性陳述。我們鼓勵您查看我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期產生重大差異的因素的更多信息。有了這個，讓我把它交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Danny, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We finished our fiscal 2022 with a strong fourth quarter that featured 10% revenue growth and 12% organic constant currency revenue growth. We also delivered 170 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion, which helped drive 25% adjusted EPS growth. And for the full fiscal year 2022, we ended up with 10% revenue growth, 90 basis points of margin expansion, 16% adjusted EPS growth. And importantly, we achieved record bookings and near record-level retention, reflecting our strong position in the HCM market.

謝謝你，丹尼，謝謝大家加入我們的電話。我們以強勁的第四季度結束了 2022 財年，收入增長 10%，固定匯率有機收入增長 12%。我們還實現了 170 個基點的調整後息稅前利潤率擴張，這有助於推動調整後每股收益增長 25%。在 2022 財年全年，我們最終實現了 10% 的收入增長、90 個基點的利潤率增長、16% 的調整後每股收益增長。重要的是，我們實現了創紀錄的預訂量和接近創紀錄水平的留存率，反映了我們在 HCM 市場的強勢地位。

Let me cover some highlights from the quarter and year before turning it over to Maria and Don for their perspectives. Starting with Employer Services new business bookings. We had a fantastic Q4 with growth accelerating from the prior quarter resulting in our largest new business bookings quarter ever. And with this strong finish, we were very pleased to have delivered 15% ES bookings growth for the year. Despite several sources of global uncertainty, including the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, inflation and concerns about global recession, our compelling suite of HCM offerings have continued to resonate throughout the market.

讓我先介紹一下季度和年度的一些亮點，然後再將其交給 Maria 和 Don，以了解他們的觀點。從雇主服務新業務預訂開始。我們有一個很棒的第四季度，增長比上一季度加速，導致我們有史以來最大的新業務預訂季度。憑藉這一強勁的業績，我們很高興今年實現了 15% 的 ES 預訂增長。儘管全球不確定性的幾個來源，包括大流行的持續影響、烏克蘭衝突、通貨膨脹和對全球衰退的擔憂，但我們引人注目的 HCM 產品套件繼續在整個市場引起共鳴。

In total, we sold over $1.7 billion in ES new business bookings in fiscal 2022 and well over $2 billion when including the PEO, marking the first time we've exceeded $2 billion in bookings. Maria will talk more about the growth opportunities ahead, but clearly, we are incredibly pleased with what is the best performance by our sales force that I've seen in my 20 years with ADP.

總體而言，我們在 2022 財年銷售了超過 17 億美元的 ES 新業務預訂，包括 PEO 在內的銷售額超過 20 億美元，這是我們首次超過 20 億美元的預訂。 Maria 將更多地談論未來的增長機會，但顯然，我們對我在 ADP 工作的 20 年中看到的銷售團隊的最佳表現感到非常滿意。

Moving on. Our full year ES retention of 92.1% was nearly flat versus last year's record level of 92.2% as we once again exceeded our expectations in the fourth quarter. Client retention is driven by several factors, including product and service quality, business mix and macroeconomic factors. And our expectation at the start of fiscal 2022 called for macroeconomic factors like SMB out-of-business rates to drive some normalization and retention towards pre-pandemic levels. We did see some of that play out but clearly less than anticipated.

繼續。我們的全年 ES 保留率為 92.1%，與去年創紀錄的 92.2% 幾乎持平，因為我們在第四季度再次超出了我們的預期。客戶保留受多種因素驅動，包括產品和服務質量、業務組合和宏觀經濟因素。我們在 2022 財年初的預期是，中小企業停業率等宏觀經濟因素會推動一些正常化和保持在大流行前的水平。我們確實看到了其中的一些結果，但顯然比預期的要少。

More importantly, our product and service teams have continued to deliver a best-in-class experience for our clients and particularly so on our modern and scaled platforms. We achieved record client satisfaction levels for the year, and we once again set new record levels for retention in several of our businesses, including our mid-market. So although you will hear from Don that we are once again making an assumption for a modest amount of macroeconomic-related normalization in retention in fiscal 2023, we are excited to have delivered such a strong performance in fiscal 2022 and look forward to maintaining our retention rates at these historically high levels.

更重要的是，我們的產品和服務團隊繼續為我們的客戶提供一流的體驗，尤其是在我們的現代化和規模化平台上。我們在這一年實現了創紀錄的客戶滿意度水平，並且我們再次在包括我們的中端市場在內的多個業務中創造了新的保留水平。因此，儘管您會從 Don 那裡聽到，我們再次假設 2023 財年與宏觀經濟相關的保留率正常化，但我們很高興在 2022 財年取得如此強勁的表現，並期待保持我們的保留率利率處於這些歷史高位。

Moving on to the employment picture. Our pays per control growth metric was 7% for the quarter and 7% for the year, reflecting a persistently strong demand environment for labor among our clients that has continued to exceed our expectations. This growth has served as a testament to the resilience of our clients. And although we expect pays per control growth will naturally slow in the coming quarters, employment conditions today remain strong with our client data suggesting that near-term demand for labor remains healthy.

繼續就業情況。我們的按控制增長指標在本季度和年度分別為 7% 和 7%，這反映了我們客戶對勞動力的持續強勁需求環境，這繼續超出我們的預期。這種增長證明了我們客戶的韌性。儘管我們預計未來幾個季度的人均薪酬增長將自然放緩，但今天的就業狀況仍然強勁，我們的客戶數據表明近期對勞動力的需求仍然健康。

And finally, our PEO business delivered another great quarter as it wrapped up a strong year. We had average worksite employee growth of 14% in Q4 and 15% for the year, and we were thrilled to have crossed the 700,000 worksite employee mark this quarter.

最後，我們的 PEO 業務在結束了強勁的一年後又交付了一個出色的季度。我們在第四季度的平均工地員工增長率為 14%，全年為 15%，我們很高興本季度的工地員工人數突破了 700,000 人大關。

As you know, I joined ADP 2 decades ago when ADP entered the PEO market through an acquisition. And as bullish as I was about the PEO industry back then, I'm not sure I could have anticipated we would be here 20 years later still growing at this combination of pace and scale. But the ADP TotalSource team continues to deliver a great platform, great service and a great benefit experience for our PEO clients, and there is plenty of opportunity for us in the years ahead to serve even more businesses.

如您所知，我在 20 年前加入 ADP，當時 ADP 通過收購進入 PEO 市場。儘管我當時對 PEO 行業持樂觀態度，但我不確定我是否能預料到 20 年後我們會在這裡仍然以這種速度和規模的組合增長。但 ADP TotalSource 團隊繼續為我們的 PEO 客戶提供出色的平台、優質的服務和豐富的福利體驗，並且在未來幾年我們有很多機會為更多的企業提供服務。

Taking a step back, fiscal 2022 was unique in a number of ways. We experienced strong demand with over $2 billion in worldwide new business bookings and near record-level retention, which together drove us to surpass 990,000 clients at year-end, putting us on track to exceed 1 million clients any day now. At the same time, we've had to manage this growth in volume with prudent head count growth given tight labor conditions. The way we've been able to do that is through efficiencies, of course, but also some plain hard work by our associates. And for that, I thank them for their efforts and for coming through for our clients once again. I'll now turn it over to Maria.

退後一步，2022 財年在許多方面都是獨一無二的。我們經歷了強勁的需求，全球新業務預訂量超過 20 億美元，留存率接近創紀錄水平，這共同推動我們在年底超過 990,000 名客戶，使我們現在每天都有望超過 100 萬客戶。與此同時，鑑於勞動力條件緊張，我們必須通過謹慎的員工人數增長來管理這種數量的增長。當然，我們能夠做到這一點的方式是通過提高效率，但也需要我們員工的一些簡單的辛勤工作。為此，我感謝他們的努力，並再次為我們的客戶提供幫助。我現在把它交給瑪麗亞。

Thank you, Carlos. With fiscal '22 behind us, I want to take this opportunity to review where we stand on some key initiatives and provide an update on where we are heading in fiscal '23. At the core of our client experience is their interaction with our platform, and one product initiative we have talked about throughout fiscal '22 is our new unified user experience, which was designed to be more action-oriented and contextual and to move us from transaction-oriented applications to experience-oriented applications. In other words, more intuitive, better looking, faster and more consistent across our solutions.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。隨著 '22 財年的到來，我想藉此機會回顧一下我們在一些關鍵舉措上的立場，並提供關於我們在 '23 財年的發展方向的最新信息。我們客戶體驗的核心是他們與我們平台的互動，我們在整個 22 財年談到的一項產品計劃是我們新的統一用戶體驗，它旨在更加以行動為導向和情境化，並使我們擺脫交易面向體驗的應用程序。換句話說，我們的解決方案更直觀、更好看、更快、更一致。

To achieve this, we have applied a research-driven approach informed by the data and insights we have gained in working with our nearly 1 million clients. Our focus has been to listen to our clients, learn from them and utilize their input to design the best experience. In fiscal '22, we moved hundreds of thousands of clients over to this new user experience, including our clients on RUN, iHCM and Next Gen HCM as well as over 20,000 Workforce Now clients. We also moved the ADP Mobile App over to the new UX.

為了實現這一目標，我們採用了一種研究驅動的方法，該方法以我們在與近 100 萬客戶合作中獲得的數據和見解為基礎。我們的重點是傾聽客戶的意見，向他們學習並利用他們的意見來設計最佳體驗。在 22 財年，我們將數十萬客戶轉移到了這種新的用戶體驗中，包括我們在 RUN、iHCM 和 Next Gen HCM 上的客戶以及超過 20,000 名 Workforce Now 客戶。我們還將 ADP 移動應用程序移至新的 UX。

Feedback so far has been extremely positive. And in fiscal '23, we plan to expand this rollout further to remaining Workforce Now clients as well as to additional modules and experiences within our key platforms. Workforce Now, in particular, has been exciting for us for a few reasons beyond user experience.

到目前為止，反饋非常積極。在 23 財年，我們計劃將這一推廣進一步擴展到剩餘的 Workforce Now 客戶以及我們關鍵平台中的其他模塊和體驗。尤其是 Workforce Now，除了用戶體驗之外，還有其他一些原因讓我們感到興奮。

First is its growing traction in the U.S. enterprise market. Just this quarter, ADP was rated for the first time an overall Customer's Choice provider in Gartner's annual Voice of the Customer study. This was the highest tier possible and was based on prospective from end users with 1,000 or more employees and is a reflection of our continued momentum in selling Workforce Now to the lower end of the U.S. upmarket these past few years. This momentum builds on the already strong presence and traction Workforce Now has had in the U.S. mid-market, in the HRO space and in Canada, all places where it is highly differentiated.

首先是它在美國企業市場的吸引力越來越大。就在本季度，ADP 在 Gartner 的年度客戶之聲研究中首次被評為整體客戶選擇提供商。這是可能的最高級別，並且基於擁有 1,000 名或更多員工的最終用戶的潛在客戶，這反映了我們過去幾年向美國高端市場低端銷售 Workforce Now 的持續勢頭。這種勢頭建立在 Workforce Now 在美國中端市場、HRO 領域和加拿大的強大存在和牽引力的基礎上，所有這些地方都高度差異化。

Second is the continued rollout of our Next Gen Payroll engine to a growing portion of our new Workforce Now clients. Our Next Gen Payroll engine not only benefits from having a global native and public cloud architecture, but also empowers our platforms like Workforce Now to offer a better product experience and enables us to offer better service. We are incredibly excited for our payroll engine to continue to scale up to larger and more complex Workforce Now clients over the coming quarters.

其次是我們的 Next Gen Payroll 引擎繼續向越來越多的新 Workforce Now 客戶推出。我們的 Next Gen Payroll 引擎不僅受益於擁有全球原生和公共雲架構，而且還使我們的 Workforce Now 等平台能夠提供更好的產品體驗，並使我們能夠提供更好的服務。我們對我們的薪資引擎在未來幾個季度繼續擴展到更大、更複雜的 Workforce Now 客戶感到非常興奮。

And finally, with talent and engagement an increasingly important aspect of the HCM suite, we continue to focus on our ability to help employers better connect with their employees. This quarter, we will launch a new offering that we're calling Voice of the Employee, a robust employee survey and listening tool, which leverages survey instruments from the ADP Research Institute to offer clients a way to seamlessly capture employee sentiment across the employee life cycle.

最後，隨著人才和敬業度成為 HCM 套件越來越重要的方面，我們將繼續專注於幫助雇主更好地與員工建立聯繫的能力。本季度，我們將推出一項名為“員工之聲”的新產品，這是一種強大的員工調查和傾聽工具，它利用 ADP 研究所的調查工具為客戶提供一種在員工生活中無縫捕捉員工情緒的方法循環。

And one of the things I love about this solution is that it was born out of an elevated client employee engagement, our return to work -- workplace solutions have been able to drive and it reflects the ability of our global product team to quickly identify an opportunity and develop a solution to meet a need in the market.

我喜歡這個解決方案的一件事是，它源於客戶員工敬業度的提高，我們重返工作崗位——工作場所解決方案能夠推動它，它反映了我們全球產品團隊快速識別機會並開發解決方案以滿足市場需求。

Moving on, we made some exciting enhancements to the Wisely program this quarter. Most notably, we now offer Wisely self-enrollment with full digital wallet capabilities for Apple and Google Pay thereby allowing employees to instantly receive and start using their Wisely account without support from their employer and without having to wait for a physical card. We also expanded our work -- earned wage access solution by offering a seamless 1 app solution for Wisely members through a deeper integration with one of our key partners.

接下來，我們在本季度對 Wisely 計劃進行了一些令人興奮的改進。最值得注意的是，我們現在為 Apple 和 Google Pay 提供具有完整數字錢包功能的 Wisely 自助註冊，從而使員工無需雇主支持，也無需等待實體卡，即可立即接收並開始使用其 Wisely 帳戶。我們還擴展了我們的工作——通過與我們的主要合作夥伴之一進行更深入的集成，為 Wisely 會員提供無縫的 1 應用程序解決方案，從而獲得工資訪問解決方案。

The offering enables employees to receive a portion of their earned wages prior to payday and, most importantly, is free for employees who use Wisely. With these enhancements and more on the horizon, we're incredibly excited about the growth prospects for Wisely and look forward to taking it from over 1.5 million active members today to an even larger portion of our U.S. payroll base over the coming years.

該產品使員工能夠在發薪日之前獲得部分工資，最重要的是，對使用 Wisely 的員工免費。隨著這些增強功能和更多功能的出現，我們對 Wisely 的增長前景感到無比興奮，並期待在未來幾年將其從今天的 150 萬活躍會員增加到我們美國工資基數的更大比例。

During fiscal '22, we also highlighted the strength of our retirement services business, a key component of our HCM suite. We offer recordkeeping services, provide unbiased independent advisory services and give our clients, their employees and financial advisers, access to over 10,000 investment options from over 300 investment managers seamlessly integrated with our key platform and with the ADP Mobile App.

在 '22 財年，我們還強調了退休服務業務的實力，這是我們 HCM 套件的關鍵組成部分。我們提供記錄保存服務，提供公正的獨立諮詢服務，並為我們的客戶、他們的員工和財務顧問提供來自 300 多名投資經理的 10,000 多種投資選擇，這些投資經理與我們的主要平台和 ADP 移動應用程序無縫集成。

With over 125,000 retirement plan clients leveraging solutions, including 401(k), SIMPLE and SEP plans, we are proud of our scale today, but even more excited about the significant opportunity in the market as we look to expand our market share within and beyond our payroll base of client. Fiscal '22 was an incredibly strong year for our retirement services business, and we are looking forward to another strong year.

擁有超過 125,000 名退休計劃客戶利用解決方案，包括 401(k)、SIMPLE 和 SEP 計劃，我們為我們今天的規模感到自豪，但隨著我們尋求擴大我們在國內外的市場份額，我們對市場上的重大機遇感到更加興奮我們的客戶工資基礎。 '22 財年對我們的退休服務業務來說是非常強勁的一年，我們期待著又一個強勁的一年。

And finally, our Next Gen HCM solution is getting closer to a broader rollout as we continue building on the implementation capacity for our pipeline of sold clients as we shared at last year's Investor Day. While we are excited about all of these product enhancements and others too, product only drives growth when our sales and marketing organization can match it to a buyer and translate it into new business booking. And to that end, we are excited about our sales and marketing momentum and the continued investments we have planned to drive growth this year.

最後，我們的下一代 HCM 解決方案越來越接近更廣泛的推廣，正如我們在去年的投資者日上分享的那樣，我們將繼續為已售客戶管道建設實施能力。雖然我們對所有這些產品增強功能和其他產品感到興奮，但只有當我們的銷售和營銷組織能夠將其與買家匹配並將其轉化為新的業務預訂時，產品才能推動增長。為此，我們對我們的銷售和營銷勢頭以及我們計劃在今年推動增長的持續投資感到興奮。

First, the product improvements I just mentioned as well as many others are all intended to drive higher win rates and expanded breadth of offerings for higher price realization, and we fully expect our sales force to continue capitalizing on these opportunities. Second, we are making continued investments in both digital and traditional marketing into our brands and into our broad and growing partnership network. Third, we are excited to have invested at year-end in sales head count and are stepping into the new year with hundreds of additional quota carriers. And we expect to be able to grow our average sales head count in the mid-single-digit range over fiscal '23.

首先，我剛才提到的產品改進以及許多其他改進都是為了提高贏率和擴大產品範圍以實現更高的價格，我們完全希望我們的銷售人員能夠繼續利用這些機會。其次，我們在數字和傳統營銷方面繼續投資於我們的品牌以及我們廣泛且不斷增長的合作夥伴網絡。第三，我們很高興在年底投資於銷售人數，並與數百名額外的配額運營商一起進入新的一年。我們希望能夠在 23 財年將我們的平均銷售人數增長到個位數的中位數範圍內。

Continued execution on our product and our sales and marketing strategy is ultimately designed to drive sustainable growth. And for fiscal '23, we expect to drive ES bookings growth of 6% to 9%, bracketing around our medium-term target of 7% to 8% from Investor Day. Growth is a priority for us, and we look forward to continuing to update you on our progress. Now over to Don.

持續執行我們的產品以及我們的銷售和營銷戰略最終旨在推動可持續增長。對於 23 財年，我們預計將推動 6% 至 9% 的 ES 預訂增長，圍繞我們從投資者日開始的 7% 至 8% 的中期目標。增長是我們的首要任務，我們期待繼續向您通報我們的進展。現在交給唐。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Our Q4 represented a strong close to the year with 10% revenue growth on a reported basis and 12% growth on an organic constant currency basis, ahead of our expectations despite higher-than-expected FX headwind from the strength in the dollar. Our adjusted EBIT margin was up 170 basis points, about in line with our expectations as leverage from strong revenue growth overcame higher selling expenses, PEO pass-throughs and growth investments like the sales head count growth Maria just mentioned. And our robust revenue and margin performance drove 25% adjusted EPS growth for the quarter, supported by our ongoing return of cash to our investors via share repurchases.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞，大家早上好。我們的第四季度表現強勁，報告收入增長 10%，有機固定貨幣增長 12%，超出了我們的預期，儘管美元走強帶來的外匯逆風高於預期。我們調整後的息稅前利潤率上升了 170 個基點，與我們的預期大致相符，因為強勁的收入增長克服了更高的銷售費用、PEO 轉嫁和增長投資，如瑪麗亞剛剛提到的銷售人數增長。在我們通過股票回購持續向投資者返還現金的支持下，我們強勁的收入和利潤率表現推動了本季度 25% 的調整後每股收益增長。

For the full year, revenue landed at 10% growth. We delivered 90 basis points of margin expansion, offsetting a few different sources of incremental expense over the course of the year, and adjusted EPS grew to $7.01, up about 16%.

全年，收入增長 10%。我們實現了 90 個基點的利潤率擴張，抵消了一年中一些不同的增量支出來源，調整後的每股收益增長至 7.01 美元，增長約 16%。

For our Employer Services segment, revenues in the quarter increased 8% on a reported basis and 9% on an organic constant currency basis. The stronger-than-expected revenue growth was a function of continued outperformance on key metrics like retention and pays per control. And our ES margin increase of 140 basis points was a bit lower than previously planned as a result of growing head count faster than previously anticipated. For the full year, our ES revenues grew 8% on a reported basis and our ES margin increased 110 basis points.

對於我們的雇主服務部門，本季度的收入在報告的基礎上增長了 8%，在有機不變的貨幣基礎上增長了 9%。強於預期的收入增長是由於在保留率和按控制付費等關鍵指標上持續表現出色。我們的 ES 利潤率增長 140 個基點略低於之前的計劃，因為員工人數的增長速度比之前預期的要快。全年，我們的 ES 收入在報告的基礎上增長了 8%，我們的 ES 利潤率增加了 110 個基點。

For our PEO, revenue in the quarter grew 16%, accelerating slightly from Q3. Average worksite employees increased 14% on a year-over-year basis, to 704,000 as bookings, retention and same-store pays all continued to perform well. PEO margin was up 260 basis points in the quarter, due in large part to favorable workers' compensation reserve adjustments. For the full year, our PEO revenues and average worksite employees grew -- both grew 15% at the high end of our guidance ranges, and our margin expanded 80 basis points.

對於我們的 PEO，該季度的收入增長了 16%，比第三季度略有加速。由於預訂、保留和同店支付都繼續表現良好，平均工地員工同比增長 14%，達到 704,000 人。本季度 PEO 利潤率上升了 260 個基點，這在很大程度上是由於有利的工人補償準備金調整。全年，我們的 PEO 收入和平均工作場所員工增長——在我們的指導範圍的高端增長了 15%，我們的利潤率擴大了 80 個基點。

I'll now turn to our outlook for fiscal '23, beginning with some overall remarks. We have, on the one hand, an inflationary environment that is creating upward pressure on our expense base. And at the same time, we recognize there is clearly concern about a potential upcoming global recession or that we perhaps are already in one. On the other hand, our momentum entering fiscal '23 is strong, and there are no obvious signs of near-term strain. And if the market's forecast of higher interest rate holds, we are positioned to benefit from a continued rebound in interest income.

我現在將轉向我們對 23 財年的展望，從一些總體評論開始。一方面，通脹環境正在對我們的開支基礎造成上行壓力。與此同時，我們認識到，人們顯然擔心即將到來的全球衰退，或者我們可能已經陷入衰退。另一方面，我們進入 23 財年的勢頭強勁，短期內沒有明顯的壓力跡象。如果市場對加息的預測成立，我們將受益於利息收入的持續反彈。

So our focus for now will be to continue executing on our strategy. And to that end, we have been and will continue to be making investments in head count where we perhaps didn't get a chance to last year in a tight labor market, but we also expect to deliver growth that's at or above our medium-term annual objectives shared at our November 21 Investor Day.

因此，我們目前的重點將是繼續執行我們的戰略。為此，我們已經並將繼續在員工人數方面進行投資，去年在勞動力市場緊張的情況下我們可能沒有機會進行投資，但我們也期望實現達到或高於我們中等水平的增長 -在我們 11 月 21 日的投資者日分享的長期年度目標。

On to the numbers. Beginning with ES segment revenues. We expect growth of 6% to 8% driven by the following key assumptions: First, we expect our ES new business bookings growth to be 6% to 9%, which Maria covered. For ES retention, we finished the year at 92.1%, a touch below last year's record level, and we believe it's prudent to anticipate some further normalization of SMB out of business levels in fiscal '23, even while we maintain record retention levels in some of our other business units. Our initial assumption is for a decline of 25 to 50 basis points in ES retention for the year.

關於數字。從 ES 部門的收入開始。我們預計增長 6% 至 8% 受到以下關鍵假設的推動：首先，我們預計我們的 ES 新業務預訂增長為 6% 至 9%，Maria 涵蓋了這一點。對於 ES 保留率，我們以 92.1% 結束了這一年，略低於去年的創紀錄水平，我們認為謹慎的做法是，在 23 財年預計 SMB 的業務水平會進一步正常化，即使我們在某些情況下保持創紀錄的保留水平我們的其他業務部門。我們最初的假設是今年 ES 保留率下降 25 至 50 個基點。

For pays per control with employment back near prepandemic levels, we anticipate a return to a more typical 2% to 3% growth range. We normally talk about prices contributing 50 basis points to our ES growth rate. We expect that benefit to be around 100 to 150 basis points this year. And for client funds interest revenue, we expect higher overnight interest rates and higher repurchase rates on maturing securities should combine with our continued balance growth to drive interest income up nicely.

對於就業人數回到大流行前水平的控制工資，我們預計將恢復到更典型的 2% 至 3% 的增長范圍。我們通常談論價格對我們的 ES 增長率貢獻 50 個基點。我們預計今年的收益將在 100 至 150 個基點左右。對於客戶資金利息收入，我們預計更高的隔夜利率和到期證券的更高回購利率應該與我們持續的餘額增長相結合，以很好地推動利息收入。

Our short funds' portfolio, which is invested in overnight securities will benefit assuming the federal open market committee increases the Fed funds rate over the course of this fiscal year. And our client extended and long portfolios will benefit as we reinvest maturing securities at an expected rate of about 3.3%. Between those 2 drivers, we expect average yields to increase from 1.4% in fiscal '22 to 2.2% in fiscal '23. We expect our client funds balances to grow 4% to 6%, supported by growth in clients, pays per control and wages. And this is on top of a very robust 19% growth we experienced last year.

假設聯邦公開市場委員會在本財政年度提高聯邦基金利率，我們投資於隔夜證券的空頭基金投資組合將受益。我們的客戶擴展和長期投資組合將受益，因為我們以約 3.3% 的預期利率再投資到期證券。在這兩個驅動因素之間，我們預計平均收益率將從 22 財年的 1.4% 增加到 23 財年的 2.2%。我們預計我們的客戶資金餘額將增長 4% 至 6%，這得益於客戶增長、按控制支付和工資的增長。這是我們去年經歷的非常強勁的 19% 增長的基礎上。

Putting those together, we expect our client funds interest revenue to increase from $452 million in fiscal '22 to a range of $720 million to $740 million in fiscal '23. Meanwhile, the net impact from our client fund strategy will increase by a bit less from $475 million in fiscal '22 to a range of $675 million to $695 million in fiscal '23. And as a reminder, this is the number that impacts our adjusted EBIT. The slightly lower growth here is due to the expected increase in short-term borrowing costs, which track the Fed funds rate. This borrowing enables us to ladder our portfolio and invest further out on the yield curve than we otherwise would. As we gradually reinvest our maturing securities, this gap between client funds revenue and the net impact from our client fund strategy should reverse and, again, become positive.

綜上所述，我們預計我們的客戶資金利息收入將從 22 財年的 4.52 億美元增加到 23 財年的 7.2 億美元至 7.4 億美元。同時，我們的客戶基金戰略的淨影響將從 22 財年的 4.75 億美元增加到 23 財年的 6.75 億美元至 6.95 億美元。提醒一下，這是影響我們調整後息稅前利潤的數字。這裡的增長略低是由於跟踪聯邦基金利率的短期借貸成本的預期增加。這種借貸使我們能夠對我們的投資組合進行階梯式投資，並在收益率曲線上進行更多投資。隨著我們逐漸對到期證券進行再投資，客戶資金收入與我們客戶資金策略的淨影響之間的差距應該會逆轉，並再次變得積極。

Back to the ES revenue outlook. One more factor to consider is FX headwind. Clearly, with the euro near parity to the dollar with a weaker pound and with about 20% of our ES segment revenue being generated outside the U.S. were factored in a fair amount of FX headwind for fiscal '23 of well over 1%. For our ES margin, we expect an increase of 175 to 200 basis points.

回到 ES 收入前景。另一個需要考慮的因素是外匯逆風。顯然，由於歐元與美元接近平價，英鎊疲軟，而且我們 ES 部門收入的約 20% 是在美國以外產生的，因此 23 財年的外匯逆風超過 1%。對於我們的 ES 利潤率，我們預計將增加 175 至 200 個基點。

This coming year, our expense base will be increasing more than it does in a typical year, in part due to inflationary pressure on our overall wages and in part due to head count growth, some of which we did late in fiscal '22 and some of which we're planning for fiscal '23. But because our margins are benefiting from strong revenue growth outlook, including growth in client funds interest revenue, we're pleased to be able to guide to the strong ES margin outlook.

來年，我們的支出基數將比往年增加更多，部分原因是通貨膨脹對我們的整體工資造成壓力，部分原因是員工人數增長，其中一些是我們在 22 財年末完成的，還有一些是其中我們計劃在 '23 財年。但由於我們的利潤率受益於強勁的收入增長前景，包括客戶資金利息收入的增長，我們很高興能夠引導強勁的 ES 利潤率前景。

Moving on to the PEO segment. We expect PEO revenues and PEO revenues excluding zero margin pass-through to grow 10% to 12%. The primary driver for our PEO revenue growth is our outlook for average worksite employee growth of 8% to 10%. That would represent a bit of a deceleration from last year, but of course, we are contemplating much less contribution from same-store pays per control in fiscal '23 compared to fiscal '22. This 8% to 10% growth compares to a high single-digit target that we outlined at the Investor Day in November. We expect our PEO margin to be down 25 to up 25 basis points in fiscal '23 compared to a strong margin result in fiscal '22.

轉到PEO部分。我們預計 PEO 收入和不包括零利潤傳遞的 PEO 收入將增長 10% 至 12%。我們 PEO 收入增長的主要驅動力是我們對平均工地員工增長 8% 至 10% 的展望。這與去年相比會有所放緩，但當然，與 22 財年相比，我們正在考慮在 23 財年同店支付的每筆控制費用的貢獻要小得多。與我們在 11 月投資者日概述的高個位數目標相比，這一 8% 到 10% 的增長。我們預計我們的 PEO 利潤率在 23 財年將下降 25 至 25 個基點，而在 22 財年的利潤率較高。

Adding it all up, our consolidated revenue outlook is for 7% to 9% growth in fiscal '23. And our adjusted EBIT margin outlook is for expansion of 100 to 125 basis points. We expect our effective tax rate for fiscal '23 to increase slightly to about 23%, and we expect adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 16%, supported by buybacks.

加起來，我們的綜合收入前景是在 23 財年增長 7% 到 9%。我們調整後的息稅前利潤率展望為擴大 100 至 125 個基點。我們預計我們 23 財年的有效稅率將小幅增加至 23% 左右，我們預計在回購支持下調整後的每股收益增長 13% 至 16%。

And I'll make one comment on cadence. Because we expect year-over-year head count growth to be more significant early in the year and because of the benefit from clients' funds interest will build as the year progresses, we expect adjusted EBIT margins to be down about 50 basis points in Q1 but then build steadily over the rest of the year. And I'll now turn it back to Michelle for Q&A.

我將對節奏發表評論。由於我們預計年初員工人數同比增長將更加顯著，並且由於客戶資金利息的收益將隨著時間的推移而增加，我們預計第一季度調整後的息稅前利潤率將下降約 50 個基點但隨後在今年餘下的時間裡穩步增長。現在我將把它轉回給 Michelle 進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Bryan Bergin 和 Cowen。

I wanted to start with the demand question. So can you just talk about what you've seen across client size as it relates to the demand environment? I heard the continued optimism in the mid-market. Can you talk a bit, bit more about up-market, down-market, international? And then just give us a sense of booking Cadence. It sounds like it accelerated through 4Q. Have you seen any change in pace as you've gone through the first couple of weeks here in July?

我想從需求問題開始。那麼，您能否談談您所看到的與需求環境相關的客戶規模？我聽說中端市場持續樂觀。你能多談談高端市場、低端市場和國際市場嗎？然後只是給我們一個預定的感覺 Cadence。聽起來它在第四季度加速了。在 7 月份的前幾週，你有沒有看到節奏的變化？

Yes. Absolutely, Bryan. I am happy to comment on both pieces. So with respect to the overall strength that we saw in new business bookings, both for the full year fiscal, very, very proud of the remarkable results, both for full year as well as the fourth quarter. And the strength was really broad-based. There was solid performance across each one of our markets. I think a few call-outs that I would give, you highlighted the mid-market The mid-market does continue to perform. We saw strength in our HRO offerings, even beyond the PEO. The HRO was a strength for us. I know I mentioned it in the prepared remarks, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention retirement services again. We also saw strong results in Canada, which was fantastic to see as Canada, definitely, was impacted a bit more with the longer lockdowns from a pandemic perspective.

是的。當然，布萊恩。我很高興對這兩篇文章發表評論。因此，就我們在新業務預訂中看到的整體實力而言，無論是全年還是第四季度，我們都對全年和第四季度的顯著結果感到非常非常自豪。而且實力真的很廣泛。我們的每個市場都有穩健的表現。我想我會給出一些建議，您強調了中端市場 中端市場確實繼續表現出色。我們在 HRO 產品中看到了實力，甚至超越了 PEO。 HRO 對我們來說是一種優勢。我知道我在準備好的評論中提到了它，但如果我不再提及退休服務，我就會失職。我們還在加拿大看到了強勁的結果，這真是太棒了，因為從大流行的角度來看，加拿大肯定會受到更長的封鎖的影響。

And then I continue to highlight, quarter after quarter, the strength that we're seeing in our down market and our RUN offers. So we felt very pleased with the RUN. And then last but not least, on the international front, our international business had a tremendous year. So very confident in the results. Very proud of the work of the sales organization. As we think about the demand environment right now, you've asked about how did it progress throughout the quarter and how do we feel sitting here a few weeks since July, I suppose I can't necessarily comment on in quarter, but what I can comment on is we did see the results accelerate throughout the quarter.

然後我繼續強調，一個季度又一個季度，我們在低迷的市場和我們的 RUN 報價中看到的實力。因此，我們對 RUN 感到非常滿意。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，在國際方面，我們的國際業務取得了豐碩的一年。所以對結果很有信心。對銷售組織的工作感到非常自豪。當我們考慮現在的需求環境時，您詢問了整個季度的進展情況以及自 7 月以來坐在這裡幾個星期的感覺如何，我想我不一定能在季度發表評論，但我可以評論的是，我們確實看到整個季度的結果都在加速。

So while there was some macroeconomic things happening in the world, our demand actually accelerated as we closed out the quarter. So we saw significant strength specifically in the month of June. In fact, June was a record month for us ever, as was the quarter and as was the year, as mentioned. So I feel good about the demand environment and the acceleration we saw throughout the quarter. Thank you for the question.

因此，儘管世界上發生了一些宏觀經濟事件，但隨著我們結束本季度，我們的需求實際上加速了。因此，我們特別在 6 月份看到了顯著的實力。事實上，如前所述，6 月對我們來說是創紀錄的一個月，季度和年度也是如此。所以我對需求環境和我們在整個季度看到的加速感覺良好。感謝你的提問。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on margins. So if things do slow down, can you just talk about the levers you have to insulate the EBIT margins? It sounds like you have baked in a healthy amount of resource additions. Can you talk about where you're making those across the organization and then where you might have some discretion to throttle investments should things slow down?

好的。然後只是對利潤的跟進。因此，如果事情確實放緩，您能否談談您必須使用哪些槓桿來隔離 EBIT 利潤率？聽起來您已經添加了大量的資源。您能否談談您在整個組織中的哪些方面進行了這些工作，以及如果情況放緩，您可以在哪些方面酌情限制投資？

Yes. No, it's a very good question, so thank you for the question. I think as I mentioned in the remarks and the materials that we distributed, that we were able to get our sales organization a little bit more than fully staffed going into the fourth quarter, and that makes us feel really good about the opportunity to step off into '23 with a fully staffed team, which is something that, as we mentioned in prior quarters, was a little bit more difficult to do during '22.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題，所以謝謝你的問題。我認為正如我在評論和我們分發的材料中提到的那樣，我們能夠讓我們的銷售組織在進入第四季度時比全員多一點，這讓我們對有機會下台感到非常高興進入 23 年，擁有一支配備齊全的團隊，正如我們在前幾個季度提到的，在 22 年期間要做到這一點有點困難。

So I think we feel really good about where we are with staffing, particularly on the sales side. I'd also say that just following the business model that we have, if we look at the record sales we had, particularly late in the fourth quarter, we need to make sure that we have fully staffed implementation resources to get those bookings generating revenue as quickly as we can. So we will be focused on that. And then, of course, just following through to the year-end process, we need to make sure we can service all those additional clients, and that time comes upon us in late December, January, February. So we can do all those things.

所以我認為我們對我們的人員配置感覺非常好，特別是在銷售方面。我還要說，按照我們現有的商業模式，如果我們看看我們擁有的創紀錄銷售額，特別是在第四季度末，我們需要確保我們擁有配備齊全的實施資源，以使這些預訂產生收入盡快。所以我們將專注於此。然後，當然，就在年終流程之後，我們需要確保我們能夠為所有這些額外的客戶提供服務，而那個時間將在 12 月下旬、1 月、2 月到來。所以我們可以做所有這些事情。

On the other hand, as I referenced and as we're seeing in the media and elsewhere, everywhere is talk about recession potentially coming, are we in one, et cetera. We still do have flexibility, of course. And we can certainly temper the addition of head count and temper our costs more generally, should we think that, that's necessary if it's something that's a result of changes in the macro environment.

另一方面，正如我所提到的以及我們在媒體和其他地方看到的那樣，到處都在談論經濟衰退可能即將到來，我們是否處於同一狀態等等。當然，我們仍然有靈活性。我們當然可以緩和增加人數並更普遍地緩和我們的成本，如果我們認為這是必要的，如果這是宏觀環境變化的結果。

So I think we still have lots of levers. And I think we've shown historically that we are able to navigate those waters pretty adeptly should that kind of a situation arise.

所以我認為我們仍然有很多槓桿。而且我認為我們已經從歷史上證明，如果出現這種情況，我們能夠非常熟練地駕馭這些水域。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Congratulations on the results this would be for Carlos or whomever, but it feels like the retention step-up is clearly a little bit more structural, just given the recent trends in '22 into '23. Is that a function of kind of the Next Gen Payroll engine? Or just where are you seeing that success? Because it's clearly been a super, super outcome post COVID. I think part of our focus was whether or not that starts to normalize or not, but it feels like it's at a structurally higher level.

祝賀 Carlos 或其他人的結果，但感覺留存率的提升顯然更具結構性，只是考慮到 22 年到 23 年的最新趨勢。這是下一代薪資引擎的一種功能嗎？或者你在哪裡看到成功？因為這顯然是 COVID 之後的超級超級成果。我認為我們的部分重點是這是否開始正常化，但感覺它在結構上處於更高的水平。

Yes. There probably are some structural factors just because we can see obviously where the retention is stronger. And I think as we mentioned, some of the macroeconomic kind of readjustment that we expected in the down market, we saw some of it just not as much as we expected. But if talk of recession is correct, then out of business and bankruptcies and so forth probably will kind of come back to some kind of a normal level, which is why, as Don mentioned in his remarks, we, once again, plan for a slight decrease in retention in '23. That's really mainly in the down market in terms of the mix that it represents -- the total representative of the mix because everywhere else, we really see some reasonable, what appear to be, structural improvements.

是的。可能有一些結構性因素只是因為我們可以清楚地看到留存率更強的地方。而且我認為，正如我們所提到的，我們在低迷市場中預期的一些宏觀經濟調整，我們看到的其中一些並沒有我們預期的那麼多。但是，如果關於衰退的說法是正確的，那麼停業和破產等等可能會恢復到某種正常水平，這就是為什麼正如唐在他的講話中提到的那樣，我們再次計劃23 年的留存率略有下降。就它所代表的組合而言，這實際上主要是在下跌市場中——組合的總代表，因為在其他地方，我們確實看到了一些合理的，似乎是結構性的改進。

I wouldn't say that it's really Next Gen Payroll because that's -- you're really going to see that -- the impact of that on sales and market share and so forth in the next couple of years because the majority of our clients are still not enjoying, I think, the benefits, even though, over time, they will, of Next Gen Payroll. So that's really not -- I just want to make sure I was clear on that, that, that is not what's causing the retention improvements.

我不會說它真的是 Next Gen Payroll，因為那是 - 你真的會看到 - 在接下來的幾年裡它對銷售和市場份額等的影響，因為我們的大多數客戶都是我認為仍然沒有享受到下一代工資單的好處，儘管隨著時間的推移，他們會享受。所以這真的不是 - 我只是想確保我清楚這一點，那不是導致保留改進的原因。

But one thing I would point out is I mean -- I know this is a broken record, but we made this big transition from multiple platforms onto 1 in the down market 10 years ago or a little bit more than that. And then more recently, we went through a multiyear effort, which was painful to do that in the mid-market. We have other things going on like new UX and Next Gen Payroll, but those migrations and those consolidations in and of themselves have created some real structural tailwinds, I think, in terms of service, NPS and, ultimately, on the retention standpoint.

但我要指出的一件事是我的意思是——我知道這是一個破紀錄，但我們在 10 年前或比這更早的時候，在低迷的市場中實現了從多個平台到 1 的重大轉變。然後最近，我們經歷了多年的努力，在中端市場上這樣做很痛苦。我們還有其他事情正在進行，例如新的 UX 和 Next Gen Payroll，但我認為，在服務、NPS 以及最終保留的角度來看，這些遷移和整合本身已經創造了一些真正的結構性順風。

It's just a much more -- an easier environment for our own folks to operate in. It's easier for us to invest in less platforms versus more platforms. It's just a much better environment. As you know, we still have work to do in the upmarket. So there's still opportunity there. There's still some opportunity in Employer Services International as well. But we think these structural tailwinds that first helped us in the down market despite the macro, right, because the macro has really a cyclical issue. But overall, excluding cycles, our retention in the down market is up, I said this before, hundreds of basis points higher than it was 10 to 15 years ago.

這只是一個更簡單的環境，讓我們自己的人在其中操作更容易。與更多平台相比，我們更容易投資更少的平台。這只是一個更好的環境。如您所知，我們在高端市場仍有工作要做。所以還是有機會的。 Employer Services International 也有一些機會。但我們認為這些結構性的順風首先幫助了我們在低迷的市場中，儘管宏觀，正確的，因為宏觀確實存在周期性問題。但總體而言，不包括週期，我們在下跌市場中的保留率上升，我之前說過，比 10 到 15 年前高出數百個基點。

And now the mid-market is at record levels and the NPS scores continue to be at record levels. And I don't think we anticipate that going back down. If anything, we see more opportunity there in the mid-market. And our plan would be to continue to do that throughout other parts of ADP to add more structural tailwinds to our retention.

現在中端市場處於創紀錄水平，NPS 分數繼續處於創紀錄水平。而且我認為我們預計不會出現這種情況。如果有的話，我們在中端市場看到了更多的機會。我們的計劃是在 ADP 的其他部分繼續這樣做，為我們的保留增加更多的結構性順風。

Super helpful. And then maybe this is for Don. It looks like the margin guidance, like, 100 to 125 basis points, up from 90. Given the leverage and float and pricing, it seems like a really nice outcome on the pricing side. Is the offset kind of the cost inflation? And where is the cost inflation in the model in '23 relative to where it's been historically?

超級有幫助。然後也許這是給唐的。它看起來像保證金指導，從 90 個基點上升到 100 到 125 個基點。考慮到槓桿、浮動和定價，這在定價方面似乎是一個非常好的結果。抵消是成本膨脹的一種嗎？相對於歷史上的情況，23 年模型中的成本膨脹在哪裡？

Yes. I think it's a good observation. I think there's a few things driving. Of course, we talked about more price than we historically have been able to take. And of course, we do we have the tailwinds, if you will, from the client fund interest. So there's certainly -- we need to remember that the reason we're getting the higher interest rates is that we're in a higher inflationary environment. So that's driving the overall cost base and wages.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的觀察。我認為有幾件事在推動。當然，我們談論的價格比我們歷史上所能承受的要高。當然，如果您願意，我們會從客戶基金的利益中獲得順風。所以當然 - 我們需要記住，我們獲得更高利率的原因是我們處於更高的通脹環境中。因此，這推動了整體成本基礎和工資。

The other aspect is that we have called out, and we typically haven't called out FX in the past, but we've certainly seen, I think, what we would refer to as pretty dramatic changes in FX headwinds in the fourth quarter compared to what we've seen in typical years. And so we thought that was important to call out. And with 20% of our ES revenue being outside of the U.S. and denominated in Canadian dollars, euros, sterling and Australian dollars [slamming], right, I think all the currencies are essentially down. So when you put all that stuff together, it certainly results in a little bit less of the top line dropping through to margin.

另一方面是我們已經呼籲，過去我們通常沒有呼籲外匯，但我認為，我們肯定已經看到，與第四季度相比，我們所說的外匯逆風發生了相當大的變化與我們在典型年份看到的一樣。所以我們認為這很重要。由於我們 20% 的 ES 收入來自美國以外，並以加元、歐元、英鎊和澳元計價 [猛烈抨擊]，對，我認為所有貨幣基本上都在貶值。因此，當您將所有這些東西放在一起時，肯定會導致頂線下降到邊緣的情況會少一些。

So that's been our focus. The other thing I'd say is that we do have a little bit of conservatism as we look to the back half. We have to take into account all the things we're reading about and seeing and making sure that we're thinking hard about how prepare should something happen in the back half of the year. So I think those are the primary drivers, to answer your question.

所以這一直是我們的重點。我要說的另一件事是，當我們看後半部分時，我們確實有點保守。我們必須考慮到我們正在閱讀和看到的所有事情，並確保我們正在認真思考如何為下半年發生的事情做準備。因此，我認為這些是主要驅動因素，可以回答您的問題。

And if I can add one thing because you mentioned also price, and it's a big topic, I know for a lot of companies, and a lot of questions about it. And I think it's important for you to understand strategically right at a very high level, regardless of how it flows into the numbers and so forth. Our view on price, we said it for a couple of quarters now, is to kind of keep up with inflation. So I want to make sure it's very clear that we're not achieving our margin improvements or doing anything that would be unusual because I think there might be some companies that are trying to make up revenue gaps or margin gaps with price because there is "cover" out there to do that.

如果我可以添加一件事，因為你還提到了價格，這是一個很大的話題，我知道很多公司，還有很多關於它的問題。我認為對你來說，在一個非常高的層次上正確地理解戰略是很重要的，不管它如何流入數字等等。我們對價格的看法，我們已經說了幾個季度了，是為了跟上通貨膨脹。所以我想確保很清楚，我們沒有實現利潤率提高或做任何不尋常的事情，因為我認為可能有一些公司正試圖用價格彌補收入差距或利潤率差距，因為“蓋”在那裡做到這一點。

But I think when you do that, and I think Don has mentioned this before that we operate in a competitive environment, and we look at what competitors are doing. We look at what's happening in the world, and we're long-term thinkers here so you should assume that our price increases were in line with what's happening with inflationary costs and not anything more than that and not materially less than that.

但我認為當你這樣做時，我認為唐之前已經提到過這一點，我們在競爭環境中運營，我們看看競爭對手在做什麼。我們著眼於世界上正在發生的事情，我們是這裡的長期思考者，因此您應該假設我們的價格上漲與通貨膨脹成本的情況一致，僅此而已，而且實質上也不會低於此。

You've been very consistent on that.

你一直在這方面非常一致。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

Congrats on the numbers. I guess my question is, looking at the midterm outlook for Employer Services back in November, I think we talked about the 6% growth rate and you guys are going to be trending above that 6% to 8%. And with the strength in bookings growing over 15%, I just wonder if maybe the midterm outlook was a little low compared to what structurally is going on in the business model that potentially the growth rate's faster than the 6% outlook that you gave over the midterm.

祝賀數字。我想我的問題是，看看 11 月份雇主服務的中期前景，我認為我們談到了 6% 的增長率，你們的增長率將超過 6% 到 8%。隨著預訂量增長超過 15%，我只是想知道，與商業模式中的結構性情況相比，中期前景是否有點低，可能增長率高於您給出的 6% 的前景。中期。

Well, I hope so. I'll let Don comment in a moment, but again, just because I've been doing this for a long time, I just -- I can't get it out of my mind. The way the recurring revenue model kind of works is we love the 15%. And what you just described really comes through in the numbers, that the difference between our bookings and our losses, our strong retention and our strong bookings that the net of that contributed more to Employer Services revenue than I've ever seen in my tenure as CEO, and that is what led this acceleration you just described in ES revenue. So that net new business growth is really the way to grow the top line here.

好吧，我希望如此。稍後我會讓 Don 發表評論，但再說一次，因為我已經這樣做了很長時間，所以我只是 - 我無法忘記它。經常性收入模式的運作方式是我們喜歡 15%。你剛才描述的真正體現在數字中，我們的預訂和損失之間的差異，我們強大的保留和我們強大的預訂，淨對雇主服務收入的貢獻比我在任期間所見過的要多CEO，這就是你剛才在 ES 收入中描述的加速增長的原因。因此，淨新業務增長確實是增加收入的方式。

There's other factors in there like pays per control, client funds interest, but that's the core of the business, and we're really happy with that. The challenge, of course, is that we're not forecasting 15% bookings growth again next year. So I would just caution you to -- now the good news is that, that increase in net new business is in our run rate now. And so we don't have to grow by as much next year in terms of that net new business to further accelerate our revenue growth. But I would just caution you in terms of if you do that kind of math. It's hard. It's hard to accelerate the revenue growth rate of this company. We just did it, and it takes a combination of better retention and higher starts, higher sales and new business starting in the upcoming year.

還有其他因素，如按控制支付、客戶資金利息，但這是業務的核心，我們對此非常滿意。當然，挑戰在於我們預計明年的預訂量不會再次增長 15%。所以我只想提醒你——現在好消息是，淨新業務的增長現在是我們的運行速度。因此，就淨新業務而言，明年我們不必增長那麼多，以進一步加速我們的收入增長。但我會提醒你，如果你做那種數學。這個很難（硬。很難加快這家公司的收入增長率。我們剛剛做到了，它需要結合更好的保留率和更高的開端、更高的銷售額和來年開始的新業務。

And that 15% really makes a huge difference. But you can see from our guidance that, that is not our expectation next year in terms of bookings. And so you'll experience, hopefully, additional acceleration of revenue growth in ES but not by as much as you had from '22 to '23. Notwithstanding the fact that remember, there's other things in there, moving parts like pays per control, client funds interest and so forth, some of which will give us tailwinds, some of which may be headwinds.

而這 15% 確實有很大的不同。但是您可以從我們的指導中看到，這不是我們明年在預訂方面的預期。因此，希望您會體驗到 ES 收入增長的額外加速，但不會像 22 年到 23 年那樣快。儘管記住這一事實，但其中還有其他東西，如按控制支付、客戶資金利息等移動部分，其中一些會給我們帶來順風，其中一些可能是逆風。

Yes. So Carlos covered off all the main drivers there, of course. I think just once again, let me go back and mention the FX headwinds we're experiencing. So I think when you add that into the mix, I think probably get to a place where we're landing and what we're anticipating, what we're guiding to for the rest of '23.

是的。因此，當然，卡洛斯掩蓋了那裡的所有主要驅動因素。我想再一次，讓我回過頭來談談我們正在經歷的外匯逆風。因此，我認為當您將其添加到組合中時，我認為可能會到達一個我們正在著陸的地方，以及我們期待的地方，以及我們在 23 年剩餘時間裡的指導。

Got it. Got it. And then let me ask you another popular question that everybody is getting is just how the model might be different now versus previous recessions just thinking about the resilience potential in the ADP model.

知道了。知道了。然後讓我問你另一個每個人都在問的流行問題，即現在的模型與以前的衰退有何不同，只是考慮 ADP 模型中的彈性潛力。

I mean, Don, again, will have, I think, a couple of points he could probably make. But I would say, as usual, there's probably puts and takes. I mean, obviously, I'd be -- I wouldn't be a CEO if I didn't say I think our model is better now than it was before, even though I've been through a couple of cycles here myself. So it's not that I'm criticizing anything other than myself if I'm saying that it's better than it was before, but we just talked about the structural retention level.

我的意思是，唐，我認為，他可能會提出幾點。但我會說，像往常一樣，可能會有投入和投入。我的意思是，很明顯，如果我不說我認為我們現在的模式比以前更好，我就不會成為 CEO，即使我自己在這裡經歷了幾個週期。因此，如果我說它比以前更好，我並不是在批評我自己以外的任何東西，而是我們只是討論了結構性保留水平。

So even if we have a little bit of a drag in the down market, and by the way, the down market is a larger percent of our overall business than it was 10 to 20 years ago, but still, it's structurally higher by several hundred basis points in and of itself. So even if it goes down a little bit, and it's a little bit bigger part of our mix, I think our retention is just going to hold up better, I would predict, in terms of -- yes, depending obviously on the severity of the recession. That's a huge help because the bigger, obviously, the portion of the revenue that you retain each year, the less dependency you have on bookings in a recession, which tends to be the most sensitive.

因此，即使我們對下行市場有一點拖累，順便說一句，下行市場在我們整體業務中的佔比比 10 到 20 年前更大，但在結構上仍然高出數百基點本身。因此，即使它下降了一點，並且它在我們的組合中佔了更大的一部分，我認為我們的留存率只會更好，我會預測，就 - 是的，顯然取決於嚴重程度經濟衰退。這是一個巨大的幫助，因為很明顯，你每年保留的收入部分越大，你在經濟衰退中對預訂的依賴就越少，這往往是最敏感的。

Like historically, when you look at GDP growth and our -- all of our metrics besides pays per control, bookings is something that can be challenging in a severe recession, which to reiterate, we don't see. So we read the same things that everyone else reads. And we know that Fed tightening will lead to slower economic growth, but we really can't see it in our numbers. Like our pays per control number in the fourth quarter was as strong as it was the whole year. You look at the monthly initial unemployment claims, you look at the room that still is there in labor force participation. You look at the number of job openings in comparison to where it was historically, and I just don't see it.

與歷史一樣，當您查看 GDP 增長和我們的所有指標時，除了按控制付費之外，預訂在嚴重衰退中可能具有挑戰性，重申一下，我們看不到。因此，我們閱讀的內容與其他人閱讀的內容相同。我們知道美聯儲的緊縮政策會導致經濟增長放緩，但我們真的無法從我們的數據中看到這一點。就像我們在第四季度按控制數字支付的費用與全年一樣強勁。你看看每月的初次失業救濟人數，你看看勞動力參與率仍然存在的空間。你看看職位空缺的數量與歷史上的對比，我只是沒有看到。

So there clearly are pockets that are happening, I think, is part of readjustments because of COVID that are kind of confusing the landscape. And there's clearly some kind of slowdown underway because it just happens when you have Fed tightening, but it's not happening in the labor market, at least not yet.

因此，我認為，顯然有一些口袋正在發生，這是由於 COVID 導致的重新調整的一部分，這有點混淆了景觀。顯然，某種程度的放緩正在進行中，因為它只會在美聯儲收緊政策時發生，但在勞動力市場還沒有發生，至少現在還沒有。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Really strong sales. I was just trying to think about attribution of the strength and how you would rank the factors there between better product set that's more relevant or better productivity, expanded sales force, the cycle or secular things around outsourcing taking over versus software. Any interesting observations on your side, Carlos or Maria?

銷量真的很強勁。我只是想考慮實力的歸屬，以及如何在更相關或更高生產力的更好產品集、擴大的銷售隊伍、圍繞外包接管與軟件的周期或世俗事物之間對因素進行排名。你身邊有什麼有趣的觀察，卡洛斯還是瑪麗亞？

Yes. Thank you. So definitely a tremendous strength that we saw. I think I called out a few areas. Definitely, the strength that we're seeing in our upmarket continues to excite us for the future. I think you asked about the attribution of strength. And I think it really was broad-based across the business.

是的。謝謝你。所以絕對是我們看到的巨大力量。我想我提到了幾個領域。毫無疑問，我們在高端市場看到的實力繼續激發我們對未來的期待。我想你問的是力量的歸屬。而且我認為它確實在整個業務中具有廣泛的基礎。

But I think from an execution standpoint, it really comes down to the execution of our sales organization and how they've been able to go to market, candidly, really over the last 2 years as it relates to navigating this evolving environment, but more specifically providing value to our clients in a more meaningful way. And we really have seen that evolve over the past year as we've been, really, across each 1 of the segments, helping our clients navigate. As I mentioned, the evolving environment inclusive of all the legislative changes.

但我認為，從執行的角度來看，這真的取決於我們銷售組織的執行以及他們如何能夠進入市場，坦率地說，真的是在過去 2 年中，因為它與導航這個不斷變化的環境有關，但更多專門以更有意義的方式為我們的客戶提供價值。在過去的一年裡，我們真的看到了這種變化，因為我們一直在，真的，在每個細分市場中，幫助我們的客戶導航。正如我所提到的，不斷變化的環境包括所有立法變化。

So I think there's value we're bringing. I think, the strong execution in general across the sales organization and leveraging the entire ecosystem bring that strength, right, which is everything from our marketing investments, our brand investments. I spoke earlier to the head count investment. And so all of this together, I think, has lent itself to a tremendous execution on strength as it relates to the overall performance.

所以我認為我們帶來了價值。我認為，整個銷售組織的強大執行力和對整個生態系統的利用帶來了這種力量，對，這就是我們的營銷投資和品牌投資的一切。我之前談到了人數投資。因此，我認為，所有這一切都有助於在與整體表現相關的力量上進行巨大的執行。

And the only thing I would add to that is Maria and I have been talking for the last 18 months about how -- one of the most important things for our sales organization was really to get productivity at the quota carrier level back to -- and then exceed from a trend line standpoint, where it was, right?

我唯一要補充的是瑪麗亞，在過去的 18 個月裡，我一直在談論如何——對我們的銷售組織來說，最重要的事情之一就是真正將配額運營商層面的生產力恢復到——並且然後從趨勢線的角度超越，它在哪裡，對吧？

So when you think about whether it's GDP trend or price trends or anything like that, you got to get back to where you were, and then you got to get back on that same trend line. Otherwise, you leave a lot of money on the table, right, whether it's the economy or ADP's revenue and bookings growth.

所以當你考慮是GDP趨勢還是價格趨勢或類似的東西時，你必須回到原來的位置，然後你必須回到同一條趨勢線上。否則，無論是經濟還是 ADP 的收入和預訂量增長，你都會留下很多錢。

And if -- from an attribution standpoint, again, this -- I think it's important for you to understand this color. Like, we had unbelievable productivity heat growth, and that's why I said that this is the best performance I've ever seen by our sales force. And clearly, some of it is because we were in recovery mode, but sales forces naturally generally have -- not that I know because I was never a salesperson, but I guess I've been around long enough to be hopefully an honorary member.

如果——再次從歸因的角度來看，這個——我認為理解這種顏色對你來說很重要。就像，我們有令人難以置信的生產力熱增長，這就是為什麼我說這是我所見過的銷售人員最好的表現。很明顯，其中一些是因為我們處於恢復模式，但銷售人員自然而然地通常有 - 我不知道，因為我從來都不是銷售人員，但我想我已經存在足夠長的時間了，有望成為一名榮譽會員。

But when you tell sales force, okay, you got to grow -- we're going to grow our head count by a few percentage points, and then we got to grow our productivity 2 to 3 percentage points, that's the typical year, right? And that's hard in a typical year. When you tell a sales force you have to grow your productivity close to 20%, even though it's because it went down 20%, that's freaking hard to do, very hard to do psychologically.

但是當你告訴銷售人員，好吧，你必須增長——我們將增加幾個百分點的人數，然後我們必須將我們的生產力提高 2 到 3 個百分點，這是典型的一年，對吧?這在典型的一年中很難。當你告訴銷售人員你必須將你的生產力提高近 20% 時，即使是因為它下降了 20%，這在心理上很難做到，很難做到。

Anybody who's in sales, I think, understands that. And so these percentage growth numbers that we have and the productivity growth numbers that we have, honestly, are incredibly just gratifying because I really thought this was going to be hard. I was, of course, keeping my poker face on and just telling everybody because we have to do it, we have to do it, and we did it. And so most of this growth came from productivity and not from head count because, as we've talked about, we actually had some challenges up until the fourth quarter in terms of achieving our head count objectives, not by lack of trying, by the way, and not because we were trying to save money, if we were doing everything we could and it was just a difficult labor market.

我想，任何從事銷售的人都明白這一點。因此，我們擁有的這些百分比增長數字和我們擁有的生產率增長數字，老實說，令人難以置信地令人欣慰，因為我真的認為這會很困難。當然，我一直保持著撲克臉，只是告訴所有人，因為我們必須這樣做，我們必須這樣做，而且我們做到了。因此，大部分增長來自生產力，而不是員工人數，因為正如我們所談到的，直到第四季度，我們實際上在實現員工人數目標方面遇到了一些挑戰，而不是缺乏嘗試，而是方式，而不是因為我們試圖省錢，如果我們盡我們所能，這只是一個艱難的勞動力市場。

The good news is, is in the fourth quarter, as Maria has mentioned, we really did quite well, and we're in a great position head count-wise now. But the '22 story is all about productivity. And that is an unbelievable accomplishment for our sales force, and it's across the board.

好消息是，正如瑪麗亞所說，在第四季度，我們確實做得很好，而且我們現在處於領先地位。但 22 世紀的故事都是關於生產力的。這對我們的銷售團隊來說是一項令人難以置信的成就，而且是全面的。

It is. And just to provide some actual numbers to that. So we reported a $1.7 billion in Employer Services bookings. That does -- that is a record as mentioned, and it does exceed the other record, which was pre pandemic in fiscal '19 at $1.6 billion. And so that really, in the end, speaks to some of this additional productivity that's now new to our clients, if you will. But Carlos has -- is spot-on. We did initially tell the sales force, we will add head count and you have to grow faster. But in the end, we didn't have the head count and they grew that much faster, which is why I am very bullish and excited as we step into the fiscal year with more sellers, more asset quota carriers to really couple the strength that we've had in productivity with now finally more sellers to go get after it.

這是。只是為了提供一些實際的數字。因此，我們報告了 17 億美元的雇主服務預訂。確實如此-這是上述記錄，並且確實超過了另一項記錄，該記錄是 19 財年大流行前的 16 億美元。最後，如果您願意的話，這確實說明了現在對我們的客戶來說是新的一些額外的生產力。但卡洛斯 - 是準確的。我們最初確實告訴銷售人員，我們將增加員工人數，您必須更快地增長。但最終，我們沒有人數，他們增長得更快，這就是為什麼我非常樂觀和興奮，因為我們進入了更多賣家、更多資產配額運營商的財年，真正結合了我們已經提高了生產力，現在終於有更多的賣家去追求它了。

Our next question comes from Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自丹·多列夫和瑞穗。

Really nice results. I'm very happy to see the strength in the enterprise that you called out as you think being a splice. Can you maybe tell us, like, I know you don't parse out the growth between. But if you did, I would love to hear it in terms of the different subverticals. But on a bigger picture, can you tell us, like, what types of firms -- are you now regaining share in some of those, like, lower end of the large enterprise and sort of mid-sized firm it came from and how these conversations are different now versus, say, a few years ago.

真的很好的結果。我很高興看到您所稱的企業的實力，因為您認為這是一個拼接。你能不能告訴我們，比如，我知道你沒有解析出兩者之間的增長。但如果你這樣做了，我很想听聽不同的細分。但是從更大的角度來看，您能否告訴我們，例如，哪些類型的公司 - 您現在正在重新獲得其中一些公司的份額，例如大型企業的低端和它來自的中型公司，以及這些公司是如何產生的？現在的對話與幾年前不同。

Yes, I think you mentioned -- we were having a little trouble catching the entire question. So maybe -- I'll maybe try to give a little bit of color, maybe you can repeat again or ask us -- ask the question again. But I think you said something about the lower end of the enterprise space and kind of where the strength in sales is coming from except though, so I think, just to repeat what Maria said, I think it is across the board.

是的，我想你提到過——我們在理解整個問題時遇到了一些麻煩。所以也許--我可能會嘗試給出一點顏色，也許你可以再重複一次或問我們--再問一次這個問題。但我認為你談到了企業空間的低端以及銷售實力的來源，除了，所以我認為，只是重複瑪麗亞所說的話，我認為它是全面的。

But that is one -- the reason I'm picking up on it, like this is -- it's a really good news story for us. So our Workforce Now platform, we made this strategic decision 2, 3 years ago. It makes sense because it fits well on the lower end of the enterprise space. And it's really been a home run for us there. So against certain competitors, it's really very, very effective, and we're selling a lot of units in that kind of lower end of the upmarket space for us as we continue with the rollout of Next Gen HCM, which is really intended to further upmarket and eventually for global.

但這就是一個——我接受它的原因，就像這樣——這對我們來說是一個非常好的新聞故事。所以我們的 Workforce Now 平台，我們在 2、3 年前做出了這個戰略決策。這是有道理的，因為它非常適合企業空間的低端。這對我們來說真的是一個本壘打。因此，與某些競爭對手相比，它確實非常非常有效，隨著我們繼續推出下一代 HCM，我們正在為我們在高端市場的那種低端銷售很多單位，這真的是為了進一步高端市場，最終走向全球。

In the meantime, we're really having a lot of success in the lower end of the upmarket with our Workforce Now platform. And if you want to maybe repeat your question one more time, we'll give another try.

與此同時，我們的 Workforce Now 平台在高端市場的低端市場確實取得了很大的成功。如果您想再重複一次您的問題，我們會再試一次。

Yes. No, I think that sort of answered the question. I wanted to know, and I apologize you couldn't hear me before. I wanted to know, like, how the conversations are -- like, how the conversations are different today when you're with those clients versus, say, 3 years ago? Because I'm sure there's been a tremendous change given the results.

是的。不，我認為這回答了這個問題。我想知道，我很抱歉你以前聽不到我的聲音。我想知道，比如，對話是怎樣的——比如，當你和這些客戶在一起時，與 3 年前的對話有什麼不同？因為我敢肯定，考慮到結果，已經發生了巨大的變化。

There has been a tremendous -- it's a good observation. There has been tremendous change. I think Carlos hit the nail on the head and the lower end of the upmarket, it's one of the reasons we cited the award and recognition we recently received from Gartner because the conversation around our offering of Workforce Now in that lower end is definitely resonating for several reasons. One is it's a best-in-class product as Gartner even acknowledges and the users that were surveyed for that award. But moreover, it's also the speed by which we can execute and really take these enterprise customers and turn them into active clients and so meeting a lot of different needs from a product perspective, from a timeline perspective.

有一個巨大的——這是一個很好的觀察。發生了巨大的變化。我認為 Carlos 在高端市場和低端市場上一針見血，這是我們引用我們最近從 Gartner 獲得的獎項和認可的原因之一，因為圍繞我們在低端提供的 Workforce Now 的對話肯定會引起共鳴幾個原因。一個是它是 Gartner 甚至承認的同類最佳產品，以及為該獎項而接受調查的用戶。但此外，這也是我們執行並真正吸引這些企業客戶並將他們轉變為活躍客戶的速度，從而從產品角度和時間軸角度滿足許多不同的需求。

I think in the upper end of the market, certainly, the conversation over the last 3 years has evolved. A big piece of that conversation is the global discussion and our ability to talk to much larger U.S. enterprise customers and other enterprise customers across the globe around our multi-country offerings and how we're thinking about the -- how they are thinking about their strategic direction on HCM on the global front. And so I think the conversation continues to evolve on both ends of the spectrum of the upmarket. And we're certainly in a position to have very formidable conversations and transformation these [guys] are thinking about, how they are thinking about their strategic direction on HCM on the global front.

我認為在高端市場，過去 3 年的對話當然已經發生了變化。該對話的一個重要部分是全球討論，以及我們與更大的美國企業客戶和全球其他企業客戶就我們的多國產品以及我們如何思考——他們如何思考他們的全球前沿 HCM 的戰略方向。因此，我認為對話在高端市場的兩端繼續發展。我們當然可以進行這些 [傢伙] 正在考慮的非常強大的對話和轉型，以及他們如何思考他們在全球前沿的 HCM 戰略方向。

And so I think the conversation continues to evolve on both ends of the spectrum of the upmarket, and we're certainly in a position to have very formidable conversations and transformation discussions with our clients in that space.

因此，我認為對話在高端市場的兩端都在繼續發展，我們當然可以在該領域與我們的客戶進行非常強大的對話和轉型討論。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 和 Baird。

Great to see all of the years of hard work really pay off here this year. So congratulations on the results. Wondering with regards to new bookings, I mean, $2 billion in total, $1.7 billion in ES. How much of that is split between new logos relative to upsells? And how would you characterize your expectations on that front for the coming year?

很高興看到今年所有的辛勤工作在這裡得到了真正的回報。所以祝賀你的結果。想知道關於新預訂的問題，我的意思是，總共 20 億美元，ES 中的 17 億美元。相對於追加銷售，其中有多少是在新徽標之間分配的？您如何描述您對來年在這方面的期望？

Thanks, Mark, and thank you for acknowledging the strong performance in bookings. There's really no news to report here. I think we've cited it for years, really, the split between new logos and client business. It really remains at that 50%, kind of 50-50 going forward, and that's really what we expect heading into fiscal '23.

謝謝，馬克，感謝您對預訂方面的強勁表現的認可。這裡真的沒有消息要報導。我想我們已經引用了很多年了，真的，新徽標和客戶業務之間的分歧。它確實保持在 50% 左右，未來會達到 50-50，這正是我們在進入 23 財年時所期望的。

Great. And then with regards to the forecast, Don, you gave us a bit of a cadence -- a sense for margins. How would you characterize it for revenue? And specifically, what I'm interested in is you did mention the interest on client funds is going to be back-end loaded. But at the same time, we've got pays per control being modeled up 2% to 3%, even though people are starting to call for a potential recession and potentially, a decline in employment. So I'm wondering, how are you thinking about that part of the model. And are there any things that you would call out with regards to just revenue trends as we build out the models for the coming year?

偉大的。然後關於預測，唐，你給了我們一點節奏——對利潤的感覺。你如何描述它的收入？具體來說，我感興趣的是你確實提到了對客戶資金的興趣將被後端加載。但與此同時，儘管人們開始呼籲潛在的經濟衰退和潛在的就業下降，但我們已經將每個控制的薪酬建模為 2% 到 3%。所以我想知道，你如何看待模型的這一部分。在我們為來年構建模型時，您是否會就收入趨勢提出任何意見？

Yes. So Mark, just going back to the first part of your question. You mentioned the deceleration of margin that I mentioned. And of course, we talked about the increase in sales head count and specifically because it is a meaningful quarter 1 of this year to quarter 1 of '22. So we do think that's going to have a bit of a drag. There are, of course, some other factors, general inflation, general -- et cetera, but -- and we've taken price Carlos described and took you through our price thinking, which is pretty consistent to what we've discussed over the last number of quarters. So we do expect to see a little bit of deterioration in margin percentage through the first quarter. I think that's understood.

是的。所以馬克，回到你問題的第一部分。你提到了我提到的利潤率下降。當然，我們談到了銷售人數的增加，特別是因為這是今年第一季度到 22 年第一季度的有意義的季度。所以我們確實認為這會有點拖累。當然，還有一些其他因素，一般通貨膨脹，一般 - 等等，但是 - 我們採用了 Carlos 描述的價格，並帶您了解了我們的價格思維，這與我們在最後幾個季度。因此，我們確實預計第一季度的利潤率會有所下降。我想這是可以理解的。

And then as interest rates continue to -- or as interest rates go higher and as we have the opportunity, we're going to see higher interest towards the last 3 quarters of the year. But overall, we're kind of looking at pretty even top line revenue quarter-by-quarter through the balance of the year. No big changes at all in terms of growth rates quarter-by-quarter through '23 compared to '22. So if you're modeling growth, you should be pretty comfortable to model consistent growth across the top line quarter-by-quarter.

然後隨著利率的繼續 - 或者隨著利率上升並且我們有機會，我們將在今年最後三個季度看到更高的利率。但總體而言，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們正在逐個季度地查看相當均勻的頂線收入。與 22 年相比，到 23 年的季度增長率沒有太大變化。因此，如果您正在對增長進行建模，那麼您應該很容易對每個季度的收入持續增長進行建模。

And that doesn't mean that you should model or that we modeled everything consistently throughout the quarters. So -- because I do have to make a comment on your point that it sounded like you thought we were being aggressive, which would not be typical of us to model 2% to 3% pays per control, when everyone's thinking there's going to be a recession. I would tell you that the fourth quarter, you saw what our pays per control growth was.

這並不意味著您應該建模或我們在整個季度中始終如一地建模所有內容。所以 - 因為我確實必須對你的觀點發表評論，聽起來你認為我們是激進的，這不是我們典型的模擬每個控制 2% 到 3% 的薪酬，當每個人都認為會有衰退。我會告訴你，第四季度，你看到了我們為控制增長支付的費用。

And I can tell you that we have visibility into July. And it's hard to believe that for the whole year, it would be less than 2% to 3%. But then you can assume that if, for example, the first couple of months, at least, since we have some visibility of that already, are in the 6% to 7% range because that's where we're kind of exiting and you can do the math, right? So you're probably -- this is just to give you a color in terms of what some of our assumptions are in our operating plan because I think Don mentioned maybe a bit of conservatism in the back half.

我可以告訴你，我們可以看到七月。很難相信全年會低於 2% 到 3%。但是你可以假設，例如，至少在前幾個月，因為我們已經有一些可見性，在 6% 到 7% 的範圍內，因為那是我們退出的地方，你可以做數學，對吧？所以你可能 - 這只是為了讓你了解我們在運營計劃中的一些假設，因為我認為唐在後半部分提到了一些保守主義。

We probably have reasonable continuation of trends because that's the way trends go on pays per control in the first half. And then you'd probably expect the second half of the year to have little to no pays per control growth. They're somewhere in that neighborhood.

我們可能有合理的趨勢延續，因為這是趨勢在上半年按控制付費的方式。然後你可能會預計今年下半年每次控制增長幾乎沒有報酬。他們就在那個街區的某個地方。

It's also hard for us to model a big negative growth in pays per control just because of all the factors we mentioned in the labor market. That doesn't mean that it won't happen in '24 or late in '23 or at some point in history, but it doesn't seem likely over the course of our fiscal year. But we're clearly expecting some slowdown in the second half.

由於我們在勞動力市場中提到的所有因素，我們也很難對每個控制的薪酬大幅負增長進行建模。這並不意味著它不會在 24 年或 23 年末或歷史上的某個時刻發生，但在我們的財政年度中似乎不太可能發生。但我們顯然預計下半年會出現一些放緩。

Carlos, you read my mind in terms of just the way I was thinking about the characterization and then thinking like, okay, this is probably what you're thinking in terms of the way it's going to unfold. So that's directly in line. Can I just ask one more question? Just on Workforce Now, would you expect Next Gen Payroll? What's the expectation in terms of the number of clients that would have Next Gen Payroll within the Workforce Now contingent by the end of the year?

卡洛斯，你從我思考人物塑造的方式來解讀我的想法，然後想，好吧，這可能就是你在思考它的展開方式。所以這是直接的。我可以再問一個問題嗎？就在勞動力現在，你會期待下一代工資單嗎？到今年年底，對 Workforce Now 中擁有 Next Gen Payroll 的客戶數量的期望是什麼？

In terms of new business bookings? Because obviously, we just want to make we answer the question correctly. It will only affect -- obviously, we're not even talking about migrations yet even though at some point, that will happen and...

在新業務預訂方面？因為很明顯，我們只是想讓我們正確地回答這個問題。它只會影響 - 顯然，我們甚至還沒有談論遷移，即使在某個時候，這會發生並且......

That's what exactly. Are we going to do any migrations over the course of this year?

就是這樣。我們會在今年進行任何遷移嗎？

No.

不。

Our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wanted to ask if you are seeing or expect to see any divergence in the kind of hiring or macro -- hiring environment macro impact between the U.S. and Europe. I guess the broader question is does your guidance assume a tougher environment in Europe relative to the U.S. or something similar?

我想問一下，您是否看到或期望看到美國和歐洲之間的招聘或宏觀招聘環境的宏觀影響存在差異。我想更廣泛的問題是，您的指導是否假設歐洲相對於美國或類似的環境更加艱難？

Don probably has the details, but I can give you some high-level color that pays per control growth, and I know you're not asking about historical, but as we gather the data, I just want to tell you that pays per control growth is very strong in Employer Services International as well. And part of that, of course, is because of what we're coming off of, right, which were these lockdowns and these high unemployment rates kind of across the globe. So I would say international has performed similarly. But it is safe to assume that we see probably challenges given what's happening in the macro environment with energy costs and the war and so forth in our international business. And I don't know, Don, if you have...

Don 可能有詳細信息，但我可以為您提供一些按控制增長付費的高級顏色，而且我知道您不是在詢問歷史，但是當我們收集數據時，我只想告訴您按控制付費Employer Services International 的增長也非常強勁。當然，其中一部分原因是我們正在擺脫困境，對，這就是全球範圍內的封鎖和高失業率。所以我想說國際的表現類似。但可以肯定的是，鑑於宏觀環境中正在發生的事情，能源成本和我們國際業務中的戰爭等，我們可能會看到挑戰。我不知道，唐，如果你有...

No. Carlos, I think those points are valid. Certainly, what happens with energy on the on the -- in particular, is going to have some impact on results. But beyond that, this is a little bit of the conundrum that we talked about earlier about where we are versus what people are talking about. So as much as everyone is predicting a recession, et cetera, unemployment rates in the Eurozone are at 6.1%, which is an all-time low. Unemployment rates in Canada are as low as they were. Even before I started working in 1974, unemployment rates in Australia, a 50-year low.

不，卡洛斯，我認為這些觀點是有效的。當然，能源方面發生的事情 - 特別是，將對結果產生一些影響。但除此之外，這有點像我們之前談到的關於我們在哪裡與人們在談論什麼的難題。因此，儘管每個人都在預測經濟衰退等等，但歐元區的失業率為 6.1%，創歷史新低。加拿大的失業率和以前一樣低。甚至在我 1974 年開始工作之前，澳大利亞的失業率還是 50 年來的最低點。

So we've got this situation where there seems to be a lot of employment, yet all this risk and worry about recession. So although, come back to your question, are we a little bit more concerned about what could happen in EMEA in particular as a result of what's going on with Ukraine, prices, et cetera? A little bit more concerned, yes. Did we think about that when we put our plans together, to some extent, yes.

所以我們遇到了這種情況，似乎有很多就業機會，但所有這些風險和對經濟衰退的擔憂。因此，儘管回到您的問題，我們是否更關心歐洲、中東和非洲地區可能發生的事情，特別是由於烏克蘭、價格等方面的情況？有點擔心，是的。當我們把我們的計劃放在一起時，我們是否考慮過這一點，在某種程度上，是的。

You should point out that you started working in 1974 when you were 12 years old.

您應該指出，您從 1974 年開始工作，當時您 12 歲。

Well, I say I'm 54 or so, 54 or so.

好吧，我說我54歲左右，54歲左右。

That's very helpful. A follow-up question, just to update us on M&A capital allocation. Are you shifting your approach at all? Are you seeing incremental opportunity out there, given the turmoil evaluations in the marketplace, potential acquisition targets? Or is it just sort of steady as she goes in terms of no change?

這很有幫助。一個後續問題，只是為了讓我們了解併購資本分配的最新情況。你在改變你的方法嗎？鑑於市場動蕩的評估和潛在的收購目標，您是否看到了增量機會？還是她在沒有變化的情況下只是有點穩定？

Yes. I think for now, it's pretty much steady as you go. I mean, certainly, you can see the valuations have dropped across the board. And things that were really expensive in January are still just expensive. Things are still expensive. They've come down off of historic highs. So there's not exactly what I would call a bunch of bargains out there.

是的。我認為現在，它在你去的時候非常穩定。我的意思是，當然，你可以看到估值全面下降。一月份真正昂貴的東西仍然很昂貴。東西還是很貴的。他們已經從歷史高位回落。所以那裡並不完全是我所說的一堆便宜貨。

There's also not a lot of people who are coming forward looking to sell their properties, because prices are down. So I would say it's steady as she goes, and we'll continue to do what we've done and look for things that work for us strategically, look for adjacencies that make sense should they arise. But really steady as she goes, really no change to our overall policy.

也沒有很多人願意出售他們的房產，因為價格下降了。所以我會說她走的時候很穩定，我們將繼續做我們已經做過的事情，尋找戰略上對我們有用的東西，尋找在它們出現時有意義的鄰接。但她走的很穩，對我們的整體政策真的沒有任何改變。

Our next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Don, you called out a 260 basis point margin increase in PEO year-over-year in part driven by a favorable workers' compensation reserve adjustment. How much was that adjustment? And how should we think about this item for fiscal '23?

唐，您稱 PEO 的利潤率同比增長 260 個基點，部分原因是有利的工人補償準備金調整。那個調整是多少？我們應該如何看待 23 財年的這個項目？

Yes. So I guess the short answer is we get adjustments on a regular basis, and they've been favorable for us. We look at the workers' compensation experience over a number of years, and we get external third parties to do an assessment as to whether or not it's appropriate to book any of those adjustments. And this year, we've been fortunate.

是的。所以我想簡短的回答是我們會定期進行調整，而且它們對我們有利。我們研究了工人多年來的補償經驗，並讓外部第三方評估是否適合預訂任何這些調整。今年，我們很幸運。

We don't typically forecast those numbers in any greater detail simply because we do have to rely on the experience rating that the insurance companies bring to us. And so without trying to disclose exactly what the numbers were, I would say they were favorable, and we'll have to wait as the month provides to see what's going to happen in '23.

我們通常不會更詳細地預測這些數字，因為我們確實必須依賴保險公司帶給我們的經驗評級。因此，在不試圖透露具體數字的情況下，我會說它們是有利的，我們將不得不等待這個月提供，看看 23 年會發生什麼。

I mean we're disclosing it in our 10-K, so we can..

我的意思是我們在我們的 10-K 中披露它，所以我們可以..

Yes, it was $40 million for the quarter, David, indicating that compares to last year's about $5 million. And most of that was as we headed into the quarter in the forecast and guidance. So it wasn't a big departure from what we had expected.

是的，該季度為 4000 萬美元，大衛，這表明與去年的約 500 萬美元相比。其中大部分是在我們進入本季度的預測和指導時。所以這與我們的預期並沒有太大的不同。

But I think what Don was trying to say, though, about '23 is that it's clearly a headwind, right? So as we -- as you kind of do your modeling and you think about margins, it's a headwind, not because there's an operating performance issue or whatnot, just because we had a big benefit in '22, and we're not planning for a big benefit in '23, although we're always hopeful that we will get some benefit. That's historically been our experience is that we do get some "reserve release." It's probably not as big in '23 as in '22, but it might not be as big a headwind as it appears now just because of the numbers.

但我認為，關於 23 年，Don 想說的是，這顯然是一個逆風，對吧？所以當我們 - 當你做你的模型並且你考慮利潤時，這是一個逆風，不是因為存在運營績效問題或諸如此類的問題，只是因為我們在 22 年獲得了巨大的利益，而且我們沒有計劃23 年的一大好處，儘管我們總是希望我們能得到一些好處。從歷史上看，我們的經驗是我們確實得到了一些“儲備釋放”。 23 年的情況可能沒有 22 年的那麼大，但由於數字的原因，它可能不像現在看起來那麼大。

Just as a quick follow-up, Don, in the guidance you've given for extended investment strategy, client fund interest to be up about $200 million to $220 million year-over-year in fiscal '23. How should we think about the incremental margin on that additional revenue? Are you applying additional expenses against it? Or should we think about it flowing through at some set margin?

作為快速跟進，唐，在你為擴展投資策略提供的指導中，客戶資金利息在 23 財年同比增長約 2 億美元至 2.2 億美元。我們應該如何考慮額外收入的增量利潤？您是否針對它申請額外費用？或者我們應該考慮它以一定的邊際流動？

Yes. So I think there are other things going on, of course. We mentioned the inflationary environment, which is why we have the higher interest rates. We mentioned the FX headwinds we have. So all things in, we're still expecting and we're still very happy and very proud of the operating margin improvements we're getting. We think we still have good opportunity for margin improvements ex-client fund interest going forward. So I'd say that right now, our expectations are for a pretty balanced incremental margin from both of those factors.

是的。所以我認為當然還有其他事情正在發生。我們提到了通貨膨脹環境，這就是為什麼我們有更高的利率。我們提到了我們遇到的外匯不利因素。所以所有的事情，我們仍然期待，我們仍然對我們所獲得的營業利潤率提高感到非常高興和自豪。我們認為我們仍然有很好的機會提高前客戶基金利息的利潤率。所以我現在要說的是，我們的期望是從這兩個因素中獲得相當平衡的增量利潤。

So we are, of course, as we mentioned, we are spending some more money. We're investing in sales head count. We have higher costs as a result of inflation, some of it is offset by price. But we are letting a substantial amount fall to the bottom line. But we are obviously in this for the long term, so we'll take the opportunity to invest in the business and make sure that we have the right balance between margin growth and preparing ourselves for continued success in the future years.

所以，當然，正如我們所提到的，我們正在花更多的錢。我們正在投資於銷售人數。由於通貨膨脹，我們有更高的成本，其中一些被價格所抵消。但我們讓大量資金跌入底線。但我們顯然是長期的，所以我們將藉此機會投資業務，並確保我們在利潤率增長和為未來幾年的持續成功做好準備之間取得適當的平衡。

But I think that stream of revenue, we would generally see it as a 100% margin just to be completely clear. If that itself is the question, do we apply expenses against those revenues, then the answer is I think we've -- it felt like a trick question, because you've noticed for a long time that we've been clear for a long -- like, on the way down, we always say it's 100%.

但我認為收入流，我們通常會將其視為 100% 的利潤率，只是為了完全清楚。如果這本身就是問題，我們是否將費用與這些收入相提並論，那麼答案是我認為我們已經 - 這感覺像是一個棘手的問題，因為你已經註意到很長一段時間以來我們已經清楚長——就像，在下降的過程中，我們總是說它是 100%。

It hurts us, right, because there's really no expenses that go away when that interest income goes away. So likewise, we would want to be transparent and acknowledge that on the way up, it's 100% margin. But I wasn't sure if it was a trick question or it sounds like it was.

它傷害了我們，對，因為當利息收入消失時，確實沒有任何費用會消失。因此，同樣，我們希望保持透明並承認在上升過程中，這是 100% 的利潤。但我不確定這是一個詭計問題還是聽起來像。

No, I was just trying to understand how much of that incremental revenue would flow through to the bottom line since Don had talked a lot about investment initiatives and you had underscored growth in sales force head count. But very responsive, I appreciate it.

不，我只是想了解有多少增量收入將流向底線，因為唐已經談了很多關於投資計劃的事情，而且你強調了銷售人員人數的增長。但非常敏感，我很感激。

David, I'll just add one clarification. You said incremental revenue. We did make the point in the prepared remarks that it's the net impact of the portfolio that would be 100% incremental margin, so that there is a cost offset and it's the short-term borrowing cost associated with the portfolio strategy.

大衛，我將只添加一個澄清。你說的是增量收入。我們確實在準備好的評論中指出，投資組合的淨影響將是 100% 的增量利潤率，因此存在成本抵消，這是與投資組合策略相關的短期借款成本。

We have time for one more question, and that question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

我們有時間再提一個問題，這個問題來自 Samad Samana 和 Jefferies。

I just wanted to maybe circle back on the price increases. I know that inflation is a big driver of the maybe more than normal amount. Can you just maybe help us understand, would that put the company back on track if I think about the pause and increases in maybe fiscal '21 during COVID? Would it be kind of linear from pre-COVID levels if we just thought about the price increases compounding? Or would it put you ahead of that because of inflation? And Carlos, can you just remind us, do those price increases tend to stick if inflation starts to roll over?

我只是想回過頭來談談價格上漲。我知道通貨膨脹是可能超過正常數量的一個重要驅動因素。你能不能幫助我們理解，如果我考慮到 COVID 期間可能會在 21 財年暫停和增加，這會讓公司重回正軌嗎？如果我們只考慮價格上漲的複合，它會與 COVID 之前的水平呈線性關係嗎？還是會因為通貨膨脹而讓你領先？卡洛斯，你能提醒我們一下，如果通貨膨脹開始滾動，這些價格上漲是否會持續下去？

Yes. I think, again, strategically, and maybe Danny and Don can give more specifics on the numbers, but I wouldn't characterize what we did as being out-of-step with the market or there was a pause for a few months. But our price increases -- our intention was that our price increases during COVID were reflective of the inflation environment at that time as well. We did pause for a few months because, timing-wise, we just thought -- and particularly in 2020, that it was inappropriate to be giving clients price increases 1 or 2 months into a global pandemic. But we eventually did some price increases, but we did very modest price increases because inflation was near 0 for some period of time.

是的。我認為，再次從戰略上講，也許丹尼和唐可以提供更多關於數字的細節，但我不會將我們所做的描述為與市場不同步，或者暫停了幾個月。但是我們的價格上漲——我們的意圖是我們在 COVID 期間的價格上漲也反映了當時的通貨膨脹環境。我們確實暫停了幾個月，因為從時間上講，我們只是認為——尤其是在 2020 年，在全球大流行後 1 或 2 個月給客戶提價是不合適的。但是我們最終還是做了一些價格上漲，但我們的價格上漲非常溫和，因為通脹在一段時間內接近於 0。

So I would -- I don't know if that answers -- if -- I'm trying to be responsive, but I think in general, we are always trying to remain kind of in-step with the market and still be competitive because our #1 goal is to gain market share. And what -- the trap that is easy to fall into when you're a large company like ours is you can take price and take it higher than maybe you should be.

所以我會 - 我不知道這是否會回答 - 如果 - 我試圖做出回應，但我認為總的來說，我們總是試圖與市場保持同步並保持競爭力因為我們的第一目標是獲得市場份額。還有什麼 - 當你是像我們這樣的大公司時，很容易陷入的陷阱是你可以接受價格並將其定價高於你應該做的。

You can usually do that multiple times and you can do that for a while, but it just doesn't work forever because of just the law of economics and large numbers and not because of competition. And so our intention -- it's important for you to understand that strategically is we want to grow and we want to gain market share. And to do that, we have to be competitive in terms of our products, our service and also our price. And that's -- so it's important when we do pricing actions, either on new business or on our existing book of business, that we remain in line with what's happening in the general market and with our competitors.

你通常可以多次這樣做，你可以這樣做一段時間，但它不會永遠奏效，因為僅僅是經濟規律和大數，而不是因為競爭。所以我們的意圖 - 重要的是你要從戰略上理解我們想要成長並且我們想要獲得市場份額。為此，我們必須在產品、服務和價格方面具有競爭力。這就是 - 所以當我們對新業務或現有業務進行定價時，重要的是我們要與一般市場和競爭對手的情況保持一致。

Great. And good to see the strong results.

偉大的。很高興看到強勁的結果。

This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I'm pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for closing remarks.

今天的問答部分到此結束。我很高興將節目交給 Carlos Rodriguez 做閉幕詞。

Thank you. I think we're very happy with the quarter, as we said. I'm not sure what else I could say other than what I said about our sales performance, which I think is definitely the best I've seen in a long time. And we talked a lot about our retention and some of the structural issues that are happening there. So it's hard to be more pleased about that.

謝謝你。正如我們所說，我認為我們對這個季度非常滿意。除了我對我們的銷售業績所說的話，我不確定我還能說些什麼，我認為這絕對是我很長時間以來見過的最好的。我們談了很多關於我們的保留和那裡發生的一些結構性問題。所以很難對此感到更高興。

But I do want to reiterate again how happy we are with our organization and our team. First, we start with COVID and all the uncertainty that, that created, everybody having to work from home. Then we have all these regulatory changes, some of them very positive like the PPP loans, the ERTC, that happened across the world. And while we're then in the middle of that pandemic, we're telling our associates that they got to work weekends and nights because we've got to keep up with all of these regulatory changes and we've got to help our clients.

但我確實想再次重申，我們對我們的組織和團隊感到多麼高興。首先，我們從 COVID 和由此產生的所有不確定性開始，每個人都必須在家工作。然後我們有所有這些監管變化，其中一些非常積極，比如 PPP 貸款，ERTC，發生在世界各地。當我們當時正處於大流行之中時，我們告訴我們的員工他們必須在周末和晚上工作，因為我們必須跟上所有這些監管變化，我們必須幫助我們的客戶.

And then as soon as that starts to abate a little bit, we get this great reshuffle and we start having staffing challenges, which we overcame in terms of being able to add the staffing and so forth. And so we ask our associates to once again work harder, put in the extra effort. And every time we've asked, they've come through for us. So -- and they've come through, more importantly, for our clients. We really do provide critical services across the world to our clients. And it was very, very important for our organization to come through for our clients.

然後，一旦這種情況開始有所減弱，我們就會進行一次巨大的改組，我們開始面臨人員配備方面的挑戰，我們在能夠增加人員配備等方面克服了這些挑戰。因此，我們要求我們的員工再次更加努力地工作，付出額外的努力。每次我們提出要求時，他們都會為我們提供幫助。所以 - 他們已經通過，更重要的是，為我們的客戶。我們確實為我們的客戶在全球範圍內提供關鍵服務。對於我們的組織來說，為我們的客戶提供支持非常非常重要。

And I just want to, again, thank our associates for making it through so many ups and downs, where we just keep asking for a little bit more, and they keep delivering. So I want to thank them once again for your attention and your interest and the great questions, and we look forward to talking again in the next quarter. Thank you.

我只想再次感謝我們的同事度過瞭如此多的風風雨雨，我們一直要求更多一點，他們一直在交付。因此，我要再次感謝他們的關注和興趣以及提出的重要問題，我們期待在下個季度再次交談。謝謝你。

This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

程序到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。大家，有一個美好的一天。