自動資料處理 (ADP) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Carmen, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions). Thank you.

早安.我叫卡門，我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2019財年第四季財報電話會議。我想通知各位，本次會議正在錄音（操作說明）。謝謝。

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Christian Greyenbuhl, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂安·格雷恩布爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen, and good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining ADP's fourth quarter fiscal 2019 earnings call and webcast. With me today are Carlos Rodriguez, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathleen Winters, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，卡門，大家早安。感謝您參加 ADP 2019 財年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。今天陪同我的是我們的總裁兼執行長卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，以及我們的財務長凱瑟琳·溫特斯。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019. These earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and on our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call as well as our quarterly history of revenue and pretax earnings by reportable segment.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2019 財年第四季和全年業績。這些收益資料可在 SEC 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上找到，您還可以在該網站上找到今天電話會議的投資者演示文稿以及我們按報告分部劃分的季度收入和稅前收益歷史記錄。

During our call today, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description and the timing of these items, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measure, can be found in our earnings release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非GAAP財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且排除了某些項目的影響。有關這些項目的描述和時間安排，以及非GAAP指標與其最可比較GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們的獲利報告。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and, as such, involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out should you have any questions. And with that, let me turn the call over to Carlos.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件，因此存在一定的風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。如有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。那麼，現在讓我把電話交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Christian, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call. This morning, we reported our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019 results with a revenue of $3.5 billion for the quarter, up 6% reported and organic constant currency. We ended the year with total revenue of $14.2 billion, up 6% reported and 7% organic constant currency, in line with our expectations.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。今天上午，我們公佈了 2019 財年第四季和全年業績，該季度營收為 35 億美元，按報告和固定匯率計算成長 6%。我們全年的總營收為 142 億美元，按報告匯率計算成長 6%，以固定匯率計算成長 7%，符合我們的預期。

We are pleased with our ability to balance this strong top line revenue growth with a substantial 160 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion for the year. This margin expansion was ahead of our expectations, as we executed well on our transformation initiatives, including our voluntary early retirement program, while also benefiting from increased operating efficiencies.

我們很高興能夠在維持強勁營收成長的同時，全年調整後息稅前利潤率大幅提升 160 個基點。此次利潤率擴張超出了我們的預期，這得益於我們成功執行了轉型計劃，包括自願提前退休計劃，同時也受益於營運效率的提高。

When combined with share buybacks and a lower adjusted effective tax rate, we delivered very strong 20% adjusted EPS growth this year. Our core drivers of growth are also strong, with Employer Services new business bookings growing 11% in the fourth quarter and 8% for the year. We are especially pleased with this performance given a difficult compare in fiscal 2018 when bookings grew 19% in the fourth quarter and 9% for the full year.

結合股票回購和較低的調整後實際稅率，我們今年實現了非常強勁的 20% 調整後每股收益成長。我們的核心成長動力也十分強勁，雇主服務的新業務預訂量在第四季度增長了 11%，全年增長了 8%。考慮到 2018 財年第四季預訂量成長 19%，全年預訂量成長 9%，這項業績尤其令我們感到滿意。

To put our Employer Services new business bookings performance into perspective, this year, we sold approximately $1.6 billion of new annualized recurring revenues, which is a testament to the strength and scale of our sales force. When you add in the results of our PEO bookings, which grew double digits in 2019, our overall worldwide new business bookings continue to perform in line with our June 2018 Investor Day expectations, benefiting from our investments in targeted incremental selling opportunities as well as investments in our sales force, product and improvements in our productivity.

為了更清楚地說明我們雇主服務新業務預訂業績，今年我們實現了約 16 億美元的新年度經常性收入，這證明了我們銷售團隊的實力和規模。加上 2019 年 PEO 預訂量實現兩位數成長的業績，我們全球整體新業務預訂量繼續保持符合 2018 年 6 月投資者日預期，這得益於我們對有針對性的增量銷售機會的投資，以及對銷售團隊、產品和生產力提升的投資。

We are very pleased with our strong recent track record of Employer Services bookings in fiscal years 2018 and 2019. With this in mind, we have continued to invest in our distribution and currently expect Employer Services bookings to grow 6% to 8% in fiscal 2020.

我們對 2018 和 2019 財政年度雇主服務預訂的良好業績感到非常滿意。考慮到這一點，我們一直在增加對分銷管道的投入，目前預計 2020 財年雇主服務預訂將增加 6% 至 8%。

As a reminder, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 benefited from incremental organic sales related to our recently completed client list acquisition. With this strong second half performance in fiscal 2019, following a strong second half performance in fiscal 2018, we anticipate a difficult compare in the latter half of fiscal 2020.

需要提醒的是，2019 財年第四季受惠於近期完成的客戶名單收購帶來的有機銷售額成長。繼 2018 財年下半年強勁表現之後，2019 財年下半年業績依然強勁，我們預計 2020 財年下半年業績將面臨較大的同比差異。

Our Employer Services revenue retention rate is another important indicator of the health of our business and, as you will recall, this is the first year we provided guidance for it. We are pleased to now report an improvement in our retention rate of 40 basis points to 90.8% in 2019, which was in line with our expectations.

我們的雇主服務收入留存率是衡量我們業務健康狀況的另一個重要指標，您應該還記得，今年是我們首次提供該指標的指導。我們很高興地宣布，2019 年我們的客戶留存率提高了 40 個基點，達到 90.8%，符合我們的預期。

This increase was driven primarily by our mid-market business, which is benefiting from rising NPS scores, following the completion of our platform migrations in late fiscal 2018, continuous investments in our Workforce Now platform and service-related transformation initiatives. This puts us closer to our all-time high of 91.4%, which is no small accomplishment given the amount of change we've been undergoing as an organization.

這一成長主要得益於我們的中端市場業務，該業務受益於 NPS 分數的上升，這得益於我們在 2018 財年末完成的平台遷移、對 Workforce Now 平台的持續投資以及與服務相關的轉型計劃。這使我們離歷史最高紀錄 91.4% 更近了一步，考慮到我們作為一個組織所經歷的變革，這絕非易事。

Our strategy is working and, on a broader level, our efforts over the past few years to improve the serviceability of our clients by migrating them to our strategic cloud-based software solutions and simplifying the service experience, while also closing subscale locations and transforming our client service model through our Service Alignment Initiative, have contributed to improvements in our client satisfaction scores and overall service costs.

我們的策略正在奏效，從更廣泛的層面來看，過去幾年我們為提高客戶服務能力所做的努力，包括將客戶遷移到我們基於雲端的策略軟體解決方案並簡化服務體驗，同時關閉規模較小的網點並透過我們的服務調整計劃轉變客戶服務模式，這些努力都有助於提高客戶滿意度評分並降低整體服務成本。

You'll hear more from Kathleen shortly on some of our more recent transformation-related investments and anticipated benefits. But before that, I would like to briefly discuss some of our recent efforts around our product and innovation.

稍後您將從 Kathleen 那裡聽到更多關於我們近期轉型相關投資和預期收益的信息。但在此之前，我想簡要地談談我們最近在產品和創新方面所做的一些努力。

The global human capital management market is strong and continues to benefit from an evolving regulatory landscape that increasingly elevates the value of HR as a strategic business partner. At our June 2018 Investor Day, we shared how we intend to position ourselves to take advantage of some of these trends.

全球人力資本管理市場強勁，並持續受益於不斷變化的監管環境，不斷提升人力資源作為策略業務夥伴的價值。在 2018 年 6 月的投資者日上，我們分享了我們打算如何定位自己以利用其中的一些趨勢。

One such trend is the evolution of payments where employers increasingly recognize the need for differentiated payments and financial wellness offerings in order to attract and retain talent. A recent study by the ADP Research Institute identified that nearly 80% of employers in North America believe that companies will need to customize their employee payment options to remain competitive in the war for talent, while 2/3 of employees, say, off-cycle pay options, such as the ability to choose pay frequency, would make a difference when considering a job offer.

其中一個趨勢是支付方式的演變，雇主們越來越意識到需要差異化的支付方式和財務健康福利，以吸引和留住人才。ADP 研究機構最近的一項研究發現，北美近 80% 的雇主認為，為了在人才爭奪戰中保持競爭力，公司需要定制員工的薪酬方案；而三分之二的員工表示，非週期性薪酬方案（例如選擇薪酬頻率）在考慮工作機會時會產生影響。

At ADP, we continue to invest in new solutions aimed at tackling these evolving trends. With ADP's Wisely Pay, we are enabling our clients to provide their employees with a fully electronic and proprietary payment solution, which we complement through our financial wellness tool and myWisely companion mobile app.

在 ADP，我們持續投資於旨在應對這些不斷變化的趨勢的新解決方案。透過 ADP 的 Wisely Pay，我們能夠讓客戶為其員工提供完全電子化的專有支付解決方案，我們也透過財務健康工具和 myWisely 配套行動應用程式對其進行補充。

Recently, we enhanced our electronic payment functionality with the launch of Wisely Now, which helps organizations and their HR Departments address compliance risks by bringing automation to instant payments, such as off-cycle and termination pay. With these solutions, organizations can leverage ADP's compliance expertise to pay unscheduled or off-cycle employee wages in order to meet the diverse range of local employer requirements.

最近，我們推出了 Wisely Now，增強了電子支付功能，它透過實現即時支付（例如非週期性支付和離職補償）的自動化，幫助組織及其人力資源部門應對合規風險。借助這些解決方案，企業可以利用 ADP 的合規專業知識來支付非計劃或非週期性員工工資，以滿足當地雇主的各種要求。

Tight labor markets -- the tight labor market has also increased the importance of recruiting. Organizations are increasingly looking to utilize technology that enables a more seamless and effective recruitment process. Providing employers with an integrated offering that equips their recruiters with tools that effectively identify and connect with top talent is, therefore, paramount in helping them stay ahead of the competition.

勞動市場緊張－勞動市場緊張也使得招募變得更加重要。各組織越來越希望利用科技來實現更順暢、更有效率的招募流程。因此，為雇主提供一套綜合解決方案，使其招募人員能夠有效地識別和聯繫頂尖人才，對於幫助他們保持競爭優勢至關重要。

It is with this objective in mind that ADP recently integrated ADP Recruiting Management, our all-in-one automated recruiting platform, with LinkedIn Recruiter System Connect. The integration allows recruiters to easily export basic profile data into ADP Recruiting Management, while servicing critical candidate information in real time into LinkedIn Recruiter.

正是出於這個目的，ADP 最近將我們的一體化自動化招募平台 ADP Recruiting Management 與 LinkedIn Recruiter System Connect 進行了整合。此整合使招募人員能夠輕鬆地將基本個人資料資料匯出到 ADP 招募管理系統，同時將關鍵候選人資訊即時傳輸到 LinkedIn Recruiter。

With this integration, recruiters have access to everything they need in a single time-saving workflow without the inconvenience of manual data entry, moving between systems or repetitive candidate outreach. Innovations like these demonstrate our commitment to delivering best-in-class products. And earlier this month, we were pleased to be recognized by both NelsonHall and Everest Group as a leader in their respective recruitment process outsourcing assessments.

透過這種集成，招募人員可以在一個節省時間的流程中存取他們所需的一切，而無需手動輸入資料、在系統之間切換或重複聯繫候選人，從而避免了這些不便。這些創新體現了我們致力於提供一流產品的承諾。本月初，我們很高興地被 NelsonHall 和 Everest Group 分別評為招募流程外包評估領域的領導者。

This is just one example of how most mid- and large-sized businesses today use multiple systems and vendors to manage their workforce needs. The seamless integration of solutions is critical to ensuring that employee experience is executed flawlessly.

這只是當今大多數中大型企業使用多個系統和供應商來管理其員工需求的一個例子。解決方案的無縫整合對於確保員工體驗完美無瑕至關重要。

As the HCM market's largest digital source for people management solutions, ADP Marketplace enables employers to build this more flexible HR ecosystem to fit their needs. This approach to providing an open ecosystem is integral to our open API strategy and is a foundation for our next-generation HCM solutions.

作為 HCM 市場最大的人力資源管理解決方案數位化來源，ADP Marketplace 讓雇主能夠建立更靈活的人力資源生態系統，以滿足他們的需求。這種提供開放生態系統的方法是我們開放 API 策略不可或缺的一部分，也是我們下一代 HCM 解決方案的基礎。

We were, therefore, pleased this quarter to host our Second Annual ADP Marketplace Partner Summit, which allowed us to recognize our partners for the creativity and success of their solutions, while also allowing them to share in best practices. We are proud to have been the first HCM vendor to launch a marketplace, and we're pleased this year to see our total number of partners grow by 33% with ADP Marketplace now offering almost 370 solutions across the HCM spectrum, representing 40% growth over the past 12 months.

因此，我們很高興在本季舉辦了第二屆年度 ADP Marketplace 合作夥伴高峰會，這讓我們有機會表彰合作夥伴在解決方案方面的創造力和成功，同時也讓他們有機會分享最佳實踐。我們很自豪成為首家推出市場平台的 HCM 供應商，並且很高興看到今年我們的合作夥伴總數增長了 33%，ADP Marketplace 現在提供涵蓋 HCM 各個領域的近 370 種解決方案，在過去 12 個月中增長了 40%。

Let me conclude my remarks by saying that our evolution toward becoming an HCM technology company that provides great service would not be possible without the dedication of our associates who are integral in helping us accelerate our pace of change. We are proud of their efforts to deliver innovative solutions like these to our clients and for their efforts to ensure the success of our transformation initiatives.

最後我想說的是，如果沒有員工的奉獻精神，我們不可能發展成為一家提供優質服務的 HCM 科技公司，他們是幫助我們加快變革步伐不可或缺的一部分。我們為他們努力為客戶提供此類創新解決方案而感到自豪，也為他們努力確保我們的轉型計劃取得成功而感到自豪。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kathleen for her commentary on our results and the fiscal 2020 outlook.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給凱瑟琳，請她對我們的業績和 2020 財年展望進行評論。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning to everyone on the call. As Carlos said, we're pleased with our financial results for the year. We continue to make progress in delivering leading cloud-based software solutions to our clients and improving the client experience through our ongoing service and transformation initiatives. Our focus on delivering top line revenue growth, while also improving the efficiency and effectiveness of our operations in order to drive sustainable long-term value creation, is working.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，也祝所有參加電話會議的朋友們早安。正如卡洛斯所說，我們對今年的財務表現感到滿意。我們不斷取得進展，致力於為客戶提供領先的雲端軟體解決方案，並透過持續的服務和轉型措施來改善客戶體驗。我們專注於實現營收成長，同時提高營運效率和效益，以推動永續的長期價值創造，這項策略正在發揮作用。

This morning, we reported full year revenue growth in line with our expectations at 6% on a reported basis and 7% on an organic constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBIT increased 15% and was ahead of our expectations. Adjusted EBIT margin was up about 160 basis points compared to fiscal 2018 and included 30 basis points of unfavorability from acquisitions. This margin improvement benefited from both discrete, larger transformation initiatives and various operating efficiencies, the details of which I will now take you through.

今天上午，我們公佈了全年營收成長情況，與預期相符，按報告數據計算增長 6%，按有機增長（固定匯率）計算增長 7%。經調整後的息稅前利潤成長了15%，超出預期。經調整後的息稅前利潤率比 2018 財年提高了約 160 個基點，其中包括收購帶來的 30 個基點的不利影響。這項利潤率的提高得益於一些獨立的、規模較大的轉型舉措以及各種營運效率的提升，接下來我將詳細介紹這些舉措。

First, we completed our voluntary early retirement program with an annualized recurring cost saving of $150 million, in line with our original expectations. However, due to the timing of our backfill hiring, we realized the full benefit in fiscal 2019. We do not expect any incremental savings from this initiative in fiscal 2020.

首先，我們完成了自願提早退休計劃，每年可節省1.5億美元經常性成本，符合我們最初的預期。然而，由於我們及時進行了人員補充招聘，我們在 2019 財年才完全實現了效益。我們預計這項措施在 2020 財年不會帶來任何額外的節省。

Second, this year, we fully realized the remaining benefits from our Service Alignment Initiative. Having completed our hiring needs in fiscal 2018, we exited the remainder of our previously identified 68 subscale service locations for an annualized recurring cost saving of approximately $60 million. This was in line with our expectations as we achieved most of these cost savings in fiscal 2018, while fiscal 2019 benefited from the lapping of approximately $20 million in dual operating costs.

其次，今年我們充分實現了服務調整計畫的剩餘效益。在 2018 財年完成招募需求後，我們退出了先前確定的 68 個小型服務地點，每年可節省約 6,000 萬美元的經常性成本。這符合我們的預期，因為我們在 2018 財年實現了大部分成本節約，而 2019 財年則受益於約 2,000 萬美元的雙重營運成本的抵銷。

Finally, following our recent platform migration efforts, this year, we also saw continued benefits from efficiencies within our IT infrastructure. These cost saving initiatives were further supplemented by a number of smaller, more tactical transformation projects that have collectively helped drive productivity improvements across the business.

最後，繼我們最近的平台遷移工作之後，今年我們也看到了 IT 基礎架構效率提升所帶來的持續效益。除了這些節約成本的舉措外，還輔以許多規模較小、更具戰術性的轉型項目，這些項目共同推動了整個業務生產力的提升。

Some examples of these initiatives include an enhanced client relationship management system; our ongoing investments to automate manual tasks; and elevating the use of artificial intelligence, which, together, help reduce contacts for clients. The benefits from these initiatives were partially offset by the investments in our new brand platform and growth in selling expenses.

這些措施的例子包括：改善客戶關係管理系統；持續投資以實現人工任務自動化；以及提高人工智慧的使用水平，這些舉措共同幫助減少與客戶的聯繫。這些舉措帶來的收益部分被我們對新品牌平台的投資和銷售費用的成長所抵銷。

Our adjusted effective tax rate for fiscal 2019 was 23.8% and benefited from the impact of the lower federal statutory tax rate due to corporate tax reform, partially offset by the loss of certain tax deductions. This rate compares to our 26.2% adjusted effective tax rate for fiscal 2018.

2019 財年，我們調整後的實際稅率為 23.8%，這得益於企業稅制改革導致聯邦法定稅率降低的影響，但部分被某些稅收抵免的損失所抵消。此稅率與我們 2018 財年 26.2% 的調整後實際稅率相比。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 20% to $5.45 and in addition to benefiting from our revenue growth, margin expansion and a lower effective tax rate, was also aided by fewer shares outstanding compared to a year ago.

經調整後的稀釋每股收益成長了 20%，達到 5.45 美元。除了受益於收入成長、利潤率擴張和較低的實際稅率外，與一年前相比，流通股數量減少也對此有所幫助。

Now for our segment results. For Employer Services, revenues were in line with expectations and grew 5% reported and organic constant currency. As a reminder, this fiscal year, we experienced approximately 1 percentage point of benefit from the impact of acquisitions, which was offset by the impact of FX.

現在公佈各細分市場的結果。雇主服務收入符合預期，按報告匯率和有機匯率計算成長了 5%。提醒一下，本財年，我們從收購中獲得了約 1 個百分點的收益，但被匯率波動的影響抵銷了。

Interest income on client funds grew 20% and benefited from a 30 basis point improvement in the average yield earned on our client fund investments to 2.2% and growth in average client fund balances of 5% to $25.5 billion. This growth in balances was driven by a combination of client growth, wage inflation and growth in our pays per control, partially offset by lower SUI collections. Our same-store pays per control metric in the U.S. grew 2.7% for the fiscal year.

客戶資金的利息收入增加了 20%，這得益於客戶資金投資的平均收益率提高了 30 個基點，達到 2.2%，以及客戶資金平均餘額增長了 5%，達到 255 億美元。餘額成長是由客戶成長、薪資上漲和我們按控制付費的成長共同推動的，但部分被較低的 SUI 收款所抵消。本財年，我們在美國同店每一個控制點支付指標成長了 2.7%。

Moving on to Employer Services margin. We saw an increase of about 230 basis points in the year, which included approximately 50 basis points of unfavorability from the impact of acquisitions. The strength of our performance this year was enabled by some of the same factors that I mentioned earlier when discussing our consolidated results.

接下來是雇主服務利潤率。今年我們看到成長了約 230 個基點，其中包括收購帶來的約 50 個基點的不利影響。今年我們業績的強勁表現得益於一些與我之前在討論公司綜合業績時提到的因素相同的因素。

PEO revenues grew 9% for the year to $4.2 billion with average worksite employees growing 8% to 547,000, both in line with our expectations. Revenues, excluding the impact of 0 margin benefits pass-throughs, grew 8% to $1.5 billion, also in line with expectations, despite continued pressure from lower workers' compensation and SUI pricing.

PEO 收入今年成長 9% 至 42 億美元，平均工作場所員工人數成長 8% 至 54.7 萬人，均符合我們的預期。儘管面臨工傷賠償和 SUI 定價持續下降的壓力，但扣除 0 利潤率福利轉嫁的影響後，收入增長了 8%，達到 15 億美元，這也符合預期。

Margins increased 60 basis points for the year due to operating efficiency within the business and benefits from our voluntary early retirement program. We also saw better-than-expected changes to our ADP Indemnity loss reserve estimates with about 10 basis points of unfavorable year-over-year impact in fiscal 2019 as compared to our previous estimate of 25 basis points.

由於公司內部營運效率的提高以及自願提前退休計畫帶來的益處，本年度利潤率提高了 60 個基點。我們也看到，ADP賠償損失準備金估計的變化好於預期，2019財年同比不利影響約為10個基點，而我們先前的估計為25個基點。

We're pleased with the strength of our results in fiscal 2019. And with the year now behind us, I want to share a few thoughts related to our balance sheet, cash flow and financial liquidity. We have a robust business model with high levels of operating cash flow. Our strategy is to leverage the strength of our model to reinforce our competitive position by, first and foremost, reinvesting in the business.

我們對2019財年的業績表現感到滿意。一年已過，我想和大家分享一些關於我們資產負債表、現金流量和財務流動性的想法。我們擁有穩健的商業模式和高水準的營運現金流。我們的策略是利用我們模式的優勢來鞏固我們的競爭地位，首先也是最重要的是，要對業務進行再投資。

We believe that balancing investments in innovative solutions, client service tools and distribution is critical in helping to strengthen our market-leading offering. And we supplement these investments through a disciplined approach to M&A. We also remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and disciplined share buybacks. And this year, we returned approximately $2.2 billion.

我們認為，平衡對創新解決方案、客戶服務工具和分銷管道的投資，對於加強我們市場領先的產品和服務至關重要。我們透過嚴謹的併購方式來補充這些投資。我們也將繼續致力於透過分紅和有計劃的股票回購，將多餘的現金回饋給股東。今年，我們返還了約 22 億美元。

Finally, our strong balance sheet, multiple sources of liquidity and AA credit ratings all help support our $2.2 trillion in global client money movement operations and our investment strategy for our client funds portfolio.

最後，我們強大的資產負債表、多元化的流動性來源和AA信用評級都有助於支持我們2.2兆美元的全球客戶資金轉移業務以及我們客戶資金投資組合的投資策略。

Let's now move to our fiscal 2020 outlook. Starting with Employer Services, we expect 4% to 5% revenue growth in our Employer Services segment, which includes anticipated pays per control growth of about 2.5%. We also expect Employer Services new business bookings growth of 6% to 8% and for our Employer Services revenue retention to improve 10 to 20 basis points.

現在讓我們來看看2020財年的展望。以雇主服務為例，我們預期雇主服務部門的收入將成長 4% 至 5%，其中包括預期每項控制的支付額成長約 2.5%。我們也預期雇主服務的新業務預訂量將成長 6% 至 8%，雇主服務的收入留存率將提高 10 至 20 個基點。

Moving on to margins, we expect margin in our Employer Services segment to expand by 100 to 125 basis points. Our margin growth continues to benefit from a combination of operating leverage, together with the impact from our various transformation initiatives.

接下來談談利潤率，我們預期雇主服務部門的利潤率將成長 100 至 125 個基點。我們的利潤率持續成長，這得益於營運槓桿作用以及我們各項轉型措施的影響。

Regarding our PEO segment, we expect 9% to 11% PEO revenue growth in fiscal 2020 and 7% to 9% growth in PEO revenues, excluding 0 margin health care benefit pass-throughs, both driven by an anticipated growth of 7% to 9% in average worksite employees.

關於我們的 PEO 業務板塊，我們預計 2020 財年 PEO 收入增長 9% 至 11%，不包括利潤率為 0 的醫療保健福利轉嫁收入，PEO 收入增長 7% 至 9%，這兩項增長均由預計平均工作場所員工人數增長 7% 至 9% 所驅動。

We're pleased with the strength of our PEO bookings in fiscal 2019, but health care inflation remains high and, as we anticipated, we experienced volatility and some churn in our fourth quarter. Accordingly, we anticipate being on the lower end of our average worksite employee guidance range at the beginning of the year with a gradual reacceleration of our growth rate as the year progresses. We meanwhile continue to expect lower workers' compensation and SUI pricing to have an impact on our total PEO revenue growth.

我們對 2019 財年 PEO 預訂的強勁表現感到滿意，但醫療保健通膨仍然很高，正如我們預期的那樣，我們在第四季度經歷了波動和一些客戶流失。因此，我們預期年初時工作場所員工人數將處於平均預期範圍的下限，隨著年內的發展，成長率將逐步重新加速。同時，我們仍然預期較低的工傷賠償和 SUI 定價將對我們的 PEO 總收入成長產生影響。

For PEO margins, following a strong fiscal 2019, we anticipate margins to be flat to down 25 basis points in fiscal 2020, which includes approximately 50 basis points of unfavorability from adjustments to our ADP Indemnity loss reserve estimates.

對於 PEO 利潤率而言，繼 2019 財年強勁增長之後，我們預計 2020 財年利潤率將持平或下降 25 個基點，其中包括因調整 ADP 賠償損失準備金估計而導致的約 50 個基點的不利影響。

I'll go now to the consolidated outlook. We anticipate total revenue growth of 6% to 7% in fiscal 2020. This outlook contemplates interest income in client funds of approximately $580 million to $590 million and net interest income from our extended investment strategy of $585 million to $595 million. This outlook is approximately $30 million lower than our June 2018 Investor Day estimates for fiscal 2020.

接下來我將介紹綜合展望部分。我們預計 2020 財年總營收將成長 6% 至 7%。該展望預計客戶資金的利息收入約為 5.8 億美元至 5.9 億美元，而我們擴展投資策略的淨利息收入為 5.85 億美元至 5.95 億美元。這項預期比我們在 2018 年 6 月投資者日對 2020 財年的預測低約 3,000 萬美元。

With that said, we expect to overcome some of this interest income pressure through operating efficiency, and we anticipate adjusted EBIT margin to increase 100 to 125 basis points in fiscal 2020, with more expansion in the second half of fiscal 2020 given our very strong first half margin performance in fiscal '19.

儘管如此，我們預計透過提高營運效率來克服部分利息收入壓力，並預計 2020 財年調整後 EBIT 利潤率將提高 100 至 125 個基點，鑑於 2019 財年上半年利潤率表現非常強勁，2020 財年下半年還將進一步擴張。

In addition to benefiting from our operating leverage, our fiscal 2020 margin growth is anticipated to benefit from the following 2 transformation initiatives. First, during the fourth quarter of fiscal '19, we recorded a severance charge of approximately $26 million related to our broad-based workforce optimization effort focused on spans of control and management layers throughout the organization.

除了受惠於我們的經營槓桿作用外，我們預計 2020 財年的利潤率成長還將受惠於以下 2 項轉型措施。首先，在 2019 財年第四季度，我們計入了約 2,600 萬美元的遣散費，這與我們針對整個組織的管理幅度及管理層級所進行的大規模勞動力優化工作有關。

Second, this year, we're accelerating our procurement transformation efforts through a number of initiatives aimed at third-party vendors and internal expense management. These 2 initiatives combined are expected to generate about $100 million of savings in fiscal 2020.

其次，今年我們將透過一系列旨在加強第三方供應商和內部費用管理的舉措，加速採購轉型工作。預計這兩項措施加起來將在 2020 財年節省約 1 億美元。

We anticipate our adjusted effective tax rate to be 23.8%, in line with last year. This rate includes about 50 basis points of estimated excess tax benefit from stock-based compensation related to restricted stock vesting in Q1 of fiscal 2020, but it does not include any estimated tax benefit related to potential stock option exercises given the dependency of that benefit on the timing of exercises. We expect growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share of 12% to 14% in fiscal 2020.

我們預計調整後的實際稅率為23.8%，與去年持平。該稅率包含 2020 財年第一季受限股票歸屬相關的股票薪酬所估計的超額稅收優惠約 50 個基點，但不包括與潛在股票選擇權行使相關的任何估計稅收優惠，因為該優惠取決於行使時間。我們預計 2020 財年調整後稀釋每股盈餘將成長 12% 至 14%。

I'll now share a few thoughts resulting from the discussions that I've had with some of you during my first 3 months here at ADP. At our June 2018 Investor Day, we set target ranges through fiscal '21, and we've been pleased with our progress to date. In particular, we're pleased with how our associates have responded to the challenges that we have set and with how the business is executing on our strategic plan.

現在，我想分享一下我在ADP工作的頭三個月裡，與你們中的一些人進行討論後的一些想法。在 2018 年 6 月的投資者日上，我們設定了到 2021 財年的目標範圍，我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意。尤其令我們感到滿意的是，我們的員工對我們所提出的挑戰做出了積極回應，公司也在積極執行我們的策略計畫。

It's now been a little over a year since we shared those targets, and a few things have happened since then, including the adoption of ASC 606. Therefore, we felt it might be helpful to share a couple of reminders. First, you will recall that we based our Investor Day targets on ASC 605, and we provided you with the anticipated ASC 606 impacts to margins. Second, our growth targets were baselined off of the midpoint of our fiscal 2018 guidance at the time, and we subsequently reported our fiscal 2018 results that exceeded our expectations.

距離我們分享這些目標已經過去一年多了，此後發生了一些事情，包括採用 ASC 606。因此，我們覺得有必要分享一些提醒。首先，您應該記得，我們​​投資者日的目標是基於 ASC 605，我們為您提供了 ASC 606 對利潤率的預期影響。其次，我們當時的成長目標是以 2018 財年業績指引的中點為基準設定的，隨後我們公佈的 2018 財年業績超出了預期。

So, although we are not providing a reissuance or an update of the targets we provided at our June 2018 Investor Day, to better assist you, in today's earnings presentation, you will find a recasted walk of certain of our Investor Day targets using fiscal 2018 reported results and the ASC 606 basis of accounting.

因此，儘管我們沒有重新發布或更新我們在 2018 年 6 月投資者日上提供的目標，但為了更好地幫助您，在今天的收益報告中，您將看到使用 2018 財年報告結果和 ASC 606 會計基礎對投資者日某些目標進行的重新推算。

Taking a step back, we're pleased with our performance in fiscal 2019, and we continue to make great progress on our transformation initiatives. We have a lot of opportunities ahead of us, and we're excited to continue to challenge ourselves to become an even stronger organization.

回顧過去，我們對 2019 財年的業績感到滿意，並且在轉型計劃方面繼續取得巨大進展。我們面前有很多機遇，我們很高興能夠繼續挑戰自我，成為一個更強大的組織。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator to take your questions.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給接線員，由他來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg 提出的第一個問題。

I just wanted to start maybe on the bookings side of things just looking at the fiscal '20 guidance. It's actually in line with your typical annual target, even though you do have that tough grow over, as was highlighted in your prepared remarks, especially in the second half.

我只是想先從預訂方面入手，看看 2020 財年的業績指引。實際上，這符合你典型的年度目標，儘管你確實面臨著艱難的增長期，正如你在準備好的演講稿中所強調的那樣，尤其是在下半年。

So I just wanted to see if you can go into the visibility on that target. I mean, it's a stronger guide than we were expecting in light of the comp issue. Just maybe deconstruct the market a bit in terms of where you see that sustained strength coming from. And as part of that, if you can just clarify what the bookings contribution in Q4 was from the quasi-acquisition, if you will.

所以我想看看你能不能進入那個目標的可見性範圍。我的意思是，考慮到競爭問題，這比我們預期的要好得多。或許可以稍微分析市場，看看這種持續強勢的根源在哪裡。此外，能否請您澄清一下，第四季度準收購帶來的預訂量貢獻是多少？

Sure. Let me just start by, I guess, the first part of the question, and then maybe Kathleen can address the quantification in terms of the numbers in the fourth quarter. But we look at a number of, I guess, objective things in terms of trying to come up with our bookings forecast for the next year.

當然。我想，我先回答問題的第一部分，然後也許凱瑟琳可以從第四季的具體數字方面來量化這個問題。但是，在預測明年的預訂量時，我們會考慮一些客觀因素。

As you know, that is the number that we have the least visibility on because it's, unlike the rest of our business, which is recurring revenue, this is every week, every month, every quarter start from 0 in terms of new business bookings. But having said that, we have a lot of historical information around, for example, sales force productivity, so what we call sales per DM or average sales productivity.

如您所知，這是我們最不了解的數字，因為它與我們業務的其他部分（即經常性收入）不同，它是每週、每月、每季從 0 開始計算的新業務預訂量。但話雖如此，我們有很多關於銷售人員生產力的歷史信息，例如，我們稱之為每DM銷售額或平均銷售生產力。

And then we have the number of sales people that we have hired into the system over the past 3 or 4 months. And so that all goes into a model, and you add on top of that our feeling some subjectivity around new product strength and, in some cases, maybe acquired products that we have, and that's really how we come up with our number for bookings.

然後，我們還有過去三、四個月我們招募到系統中的銷售人員數量。因此，所有這些因素都會被納入模型，再加上我們對新產品實力的一些主觀感受，以及在某些情況下，我們收購的產品，這就是我們得出預訂量的方式。

So I think, barring changes in the economy and barring kind of -- some kind of external shocker or factor, we've been doing this this way for decades and it works. We have a certain amount of headcount that we add. We have a certain amount of productivity that we drive toward. And we change our incentives and ratchet them up in order to drive those productivity improvements. And then we have kind of new products that we introduce to try to help our sales force get that productivity and to also help us competitively in the marketplace.

所以我認為，除非經濟發生變化，除非出現某種外部衝擊或因素，否則我們幾十年來一直這樣做，而且行之有效。我們會定期增加一定數量的員工。我們努力達到一定的生產力目標。我們會改變激勵機制，並逐步增加激勵力度，以推動生產力的提升。然後，我們推出了一些新產品，旨在幫助我們的銷售團隊提高生產力，並幫助我們在市場上保持競爭力。

All other factors remain relatively constant, even though there are tweaks here and there, depending on the segments, but no big changes in pricing, no big changes to report on kind of other fronts, other than, as you insinuated, kind of business as usual. Although that underestimates the difficulty of selling the amount of new business bookings that we have to sell every year in order to hit our targets. But that gives you a little bit of a flavor how we kind of build our planets.

其他所有因素都保持相對穩定，儘管根據不同細分市場會有一些調整，但價格方面沒有重大變化，其他方面也沒有重大變化需要報告，正如你所暗示的那樣，一切照舊。儘管這低估了我們每年為了實現目標而必須銷售的新業務訂單數量的困難。但這能讓你對我們是如何建造我們的星球有一點了解。

It's a tried and tested approach, and we did have a little bit of a challenge because of the grow-over from the fourth quarter client acquisition list. But we feel good about our momentum. And I think our headcount adds were probably in the 4% range, I think, it was.

這是一個行之有效的方法，但由於第四季度客戶名單的成長，我們確實遇到了一些挑戰。但我們對目前的勢頭感到樂觀。我認為我們的人員成長幅度可能在 4% 左右，我想應該是這樣。

I'm not sure what the exact number was, but our headcount is exactly where -- that's the one variable that, historically, if we're behind in hiring that can generally create an issue for us. And if we are in good shape on hiring or even ahead of the game, it gives us a little more confidence. And I think we're exiting the year fully staffed and I think, with a good headcount in our sales organization. And I don't know, Kathleen, if you want to address the...

我不太確定具體數字是多少，但我們的員工人數正好處於這個水平——從歷史上看，如果我們在招聘方面落後，這通常會給我們帶來問題。如果我們招募情況良好，甚至領先一步，這會讓我們更有信心。我認為我們今年結束時人員配備齊全，而且我認為我們的銷售團隊人員數量也相當充足。我不知道，凱瑟琳，你是否想談談…

Yes. And maybe I'll just also comment a little bit on the process having come in and been here for a couple of months now and coming in with a fresh set of eyes or a different set of eyes looking at the process.

是的。或許我也可以對這個過程發表一些看法，因為我來到這裡已經幾個月了，現在我可以用全新的視角或不同的眼光來看待這個過程。

I mean, I can attest to the very detailed bottoms-up process that we go through in terms of, as Carlos said, looking at headcount, looking at productivity improvements, how does new product functionality or new product add to the growth, what do the market conditions look like. I mean, we've kicked the tires on this process and it is a really, really solid process, so I'm really happy to see that.

我的意思是，我可以證明，正如卡洛斯所說，我們確實經歷了一個非常詳細的自下而上的流程，包括查看員工人數、查看生產力改進情況、新產品功能或新產品如何促進成長、市場狀況如何等等。我的意思是，我們已經仔細研究過這個過程，它確實是一個非常非常可靠的過程，所以我很高興看到這一點。

In terms of the year-over-year and the growth off of -- particularly, the client list acquisition, I mean, look, we're really, really pleased with how the organization -- the sales organization performed and the end result for fiscal 2019. It's a little hard to exactly parse out and identify the exact impact of that client list acquisition because we think about it in terms of, look, it's truly organic.

就同​​比和增長而言——特別是客戶名單的獲取，我的意思是，你看，我們對銷售組織的表現以及 2019 財年的最終結果真的非常滿意。要準確分析和確定客戶名單取得的確切影響有點困難，因為我們認為，這完全是自然而然的。

We've got a sales force and sales associates that we've had to dedicate to go out and work those conversions and close those sales. On balance, we're just really happy with the outcome we had in 2019. And we think we've got a really very balanced and solid outlook for 2020.

我們有一支銷售團隊和銷售助理，我們必須專門安排他們出去拓展客戶，促成交易，完成銷售。總的來說，我們對2019年的結果非常滿意。我們認為我們對 2020 年的前景有著非常平衡和穩健的展望。

And I'm sorry. I just went back and looked at my notes. Our headcount actually is a little bit stronger. It's around a little bit over 5% in terms of -- so that's actually probably better than historical norm.

我很抱歉。我剛才回去看了看我的筆記。實際上，我們的人員配置略有增加。就……而言，這個數字略高於 5%，所以這實際上可能比歷史平均水平要好。

And we did have conversations about 6 months ago that, given the discussions out in the external market about the economy and difficulties -- potential difficulties with the economy, this is before, obviously, the discussions about lower rates, et cetera, we decided that we were going to take out a little bit of an insurance policy and add a little bit more headcount in our sales organization. And so we're -- I think we're entering the year in a very good position from a headcount standpoint.

大約 6 個月前，我們確實進行過一些討論，考慮到外部市場對經濟和困難的討論——經濟可能出現的困難（顯然，這是在討論降低利率等等之前），我們決定採取一些保險措施，並在我們的銷售組織中增加一些人手。所以，我認為從人員配置的角度來看，我們進入新的一年時處於非常有利的地位。

Jason, I would just add briefly to that that -- to Carlos' point about headcount investments, they are in -- more focused on inside sales, which is in line with what we outlined at our Investor Day that we were going to try to focus on.

Jason，我只想簡單補充一點——關於Carlos提到的人員投入問題，他們更注重內部銷售，這與我們在投資者日上概述的我們將努力關注的重點一致。

And one -- sorry, one last comment about that because, I think, you referred to it as a quasi-acquisition. So just on be clear, we bought the right to convert clients. And so every single client had to be resold and reimplemented.

還有一點——抱歉，關於這一點我還有最後要補充一點，因為我認為，你稱它為準收購。所以說清楚一點，我們買了轉換客戶的權利。因此，每個客戶都必須重新銷售和重新實施。

We bought no platforms, no assets, no people, just to be clear, because that was a very difficult and an incredibly well-executed -- it's probably one of the best executed initiatives I've ever seen. It was months and months of planning, and it was executed virtually flawlessly.

需要澄清的是，我們沒有收購任何平台、資產或人員，因為那是一項非常困難但執行得非常出色的舉措——這可能是我見過的執行得最好的舉措之一。經過數月的籌劃，最後執行得近乎完美。

Okay. That's really good color. I just wanted to switch gears for a second over to PEO. I mean, if we just reflect back on the Analyst Day last year, I think the 3-year revenue guidance, the CAGR there on PEO was 11% to 14%, if memory serves. I know we did 9% in year 1. And at the midpoint in year 2, I think we're looking at about 10%.

好的。這顏色真好看。我只是想稍微換個話題，聊聊PEO。我的意思是，如果我們回顧去年的分析師日，我記得當時給出的三年營收預期中，PEO 的複合年增長率是 11% 到 14%。我知道我們第一年實現了 9% 的成長率。到了第二年年中，我認為我們預計會達到 10% 左右。

So how should we perhaps recalibrate our expectations a little bit in terms of what the realistic 3-year CAGR is? And at the end of the day, is that just attributable more to variations in the WSE growth as opposed to some of the pass-through pieces or the SUI pricing as you reflect on kind of what the thought process was 1 year plus ago versus today?

那麼，我們該如何稍微調整一下我們對未來三年複合年增長率的預期呢？歸根結底，這是否更多地歸因於 WSE 成長的波動，而不是某些轉嫁因素或 SUI 定價？回顧一年多前和現在的思考過程，這種差異又該如何解釋？

Sure. For -- so for 2019, as Kathleen was talking about things that we needed to kind of provide some clarification on from Investor Day because as time goes on, more things change. So ASC 606 was one of the things that we highlighted.

當然。所以，對於 2019 年，正如 Kathleen 所談到的，我們需要對投資者日的一些事項進行澄清，因為隨著時間的推移，更多的事情會發生變化。所以 ASC 606 是我們重點介紹的內容之一。

But another thing we've tried to highlight every quarter since the fiscal year started in '19 because given the timing, when we gave our Investor Day guidance, it was June and it was really just a month later that our benefits billing cycle changes for our PEO. In other words, our open enrollment takes place. Because of the way our fiscal year works, that's when our renewals take place in our PEO, and that's when we give visibility really to the biggest pass-through, which is a 0 margin benefits pass-through.

但自 2019 財年開始以來，我們每季都試圖強調另一件事，因為考慮到時間因素，當我們發布投資者日指導意見時，是在 6 月份，而實際上僅僅一個月後，我們 PEO 的福利計費週期就發生了變化。換句話說，我們的公開招生開始了。由於我們的財政年度運作方式，我們的 PEO 續約工作就是在這個時期進行的，也是在這個時期，我們真正能夠看到最大的轉嫁，即零利潤的福利轉嫁。

And as we mentioned last year around this time, we were pleasantly surprised to have gotten, kind of given what was happening with health care inflation, low health care renewals, lower than we had anticipated certainly in our Investor Day, again 0 margin. So no impact on EPS, but certainly had an impact on growth in '19 of total PEO revenue.

正如我們去年這個時候提到的那樣，考慮到醫療保健通膨、醫療保健續保率低迷（低於我們在投資者日上的預期，利潤率再次為 0），我們驚訝地發現，我們獲得了利潤率。因此，對每股盈餘沒有影響，但肯定對 2019 年 PEO 總收入的成長產生了影響。

We also had a renewal of our workers' compensation policy that ended up being, again, lower than we had anticipated. That was a smaller impact in the 0 margin health care benefits pass-through. But the combination of those 2 items is really the largest component of the difference between Investor Day guidance and 2019 PEO performance.

我們的工傷賠償保險也進行了續保，但最終的保費再次低於我們的預期。在利潤率為 0 的醫療保健福利傳遞中，這產生的影響較小。但這兩個因素結合起來，才是投資者日預期與 2019 年 PEO 業績之間差異的最大組成部分。

Now if you move on to 2020, now you start to get the impact of what is a combination of that, of the slower pass-through growth, but also slightly slower worksite employee growth. So it's really a combination of those 2 factors.

現在，如果你進入 2020 年，你會開始感受到這些因素共同帶來的影響，包括經濟成長放緩，以及工作場所員工增速略微放緩。所以這其實是這兩個因素共同作用的結果。

I just want to give you a little bit of color because it depends on '19 versus '20. And as Kathleen mentioned in her prepared remarks, in '20, our health care renewals, which we do now have, came in in line with historical expectations. So that portion for 2020 is more in line with what we've had historically.

我只是想給你補充一些細節，因為這取決於 2019 年和 2020 年的情況。正如凱瑟琳在事先準備好的演講稿中所提到的那樣，2020 年，我們現有的醫療保健改革方案符合歷史預期。因此，2020 年的這一部分與我們歷史上的情況更加一致。

So '19 was really the anomaly when it comes to 0 margin pass-through, but we still have pressure from workers' compensation pricing coming down and SUI pass-through also coming down in 2020. And again, these 0 margin or low-margin pass-through costs coming down in cost or price is generally a good thing competitively for the PEO. So it has relatively small impact on the overall profitability of the PEO and very little impact on the overall profitability of ADP, but certainly impacts the headline revenue number.

所以，2019 年的利潤率傳遞為 0 確實是一個異常情況，但 2020 年我們仍然面臨著工傷賠償定價下降和 SUI 傳遞下降的壓力。再次強調，這些零利潤或低利潤的轉嫁成本降低到成本或價格上，通常對 PEO 的競爭力來說是一件好事。因此，它對 PEO 的整體獲利能力影響相對較小，對 ADP 的整體獲利能力影響甚微，但肯定會影響總收入數字。

And our next question comes from Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Lisa Ellis。

If I recall correctly, I believe your new high-end product is in beta testing with a handful of clients. Could you -- as we're like peeking out into 2020 now, could you give us an update on where you are in that rollout, what type of feedback you're hearing, what features are clients liking the most about that product and kind of what's the time line for the rollout?

如果我沒記錯的話，你們的高階新產品目前正在少數客戶中進行beta測試。鑑於我們現在已經進入 2020 年，您能否向我們介紹一下該產品的推廣進度，您收到了哪些回饋，客戶最喜歡該產品的哪些功能，以及推廣的大致時間表？

Sure. Obviously, as you can imagine, we're very excited about -- we've been for several years working on a solution that will really address some of the needs in the market that are unmet today. We -- just to -- as a little bit of color before I get into that, keep in mind that we also have our Workforce Now platform that we brought up into the upmarket space, which has really helped us competitively quite a bit.

當然。顯然，正如您所想，我們對此感到非常興奮——我們多年來一直在努力尋找解決方案，以真正滿足目前市場上一些尚未滿足的需求。我們——只是為了——在我深入探討之前稍微補充一點背景信息，請記住，我們還有 Workforce Now 平台，我們將其推向了高端市場，這確實在競爭中給予了我們很大的幫助。

There is a segment of the market where Workforce Now works very well for larger clients if those larger clients are "simpler" and don't have kind of global needs and relatively simple benefits needs. And so it's been a two-pronged approach in the interim of using -- continuing to use Vantage and investing in Vantage and also bringing Workforce Now up into the upmarket. Those 2 things, in combination, I think, have led to what we consider to be good unit growth in the upmarket, which is very satisfying for us.

如果大型客戶比較“簡單”，沒有全球性的需求，福利需求也相對簡單，那麼 Workforce Now 在市場的一個細分領域中就能很好地滿足這些大型客戶的需求。因此，在過渡期間，我們採取了雙管齊下的方法——繼續使用 Vantage 並投資 Vantage，同時將 Workforce Now 推向高端市場。我認為，這兩件事結合起來，促成了我們在高端市場取得的良好銷售成長，這讓我們非常滿意。

But obviously, we believe there's a lot of upside with our new Lifion platform. And so this is the first year where we've had clients in pilot. We do have a sales team, which we have expanded just very recently. So we are not in general availability, but we are selling new clients. And I would say that our sales expectations have, I think it's safe to say, been in line to maybe even exceeded our expectations. So we're very happy on that front.

但很顯然，我們相信我們的新 Lifion 平台有很多發展潛力。所以今年是我們首次有客戶參與試點計畫。我們確實有一支銷售團隊，而且最近還進行了擴充。所以目前我們還沒有全面開放服務，但我們正在向新客戶銷售產品。而且我認為，我們的銷售預期已經達到甚至可能超越了預期。所以在這方面我們非常滿意。

But now we have a lot of work ahead of us because we've got, I believe it's about 4 or 5 clients that are implemented and live. And obviously, in the agile development approach, we are continuing to improve and add to the platform as we bring on clients. And so we're just in this gradual process of making sure that we can get to the point where we can have exponential growth of the platform.

但現在我們有很多工作要做，因為我相信我們已經有 4 到 5 個客戶完成了部署並上線運行。顯然，在敏捷開發方法中，隨著客戶的加入，我們會不斷改進和完善平台。因此，我們正處於一個循序漸進的過程中，以確保我們能夠達到平台呈指數級增長的階段。

And for that, we need to make sure that we are fully ready with our implementation resources. We've been adding sales people. We've been adding implementation resources. And I think 2020 is a year where we expect to get traction in the market, particularly in the second half of the year.

為此，我們需要確保我們的實施資源已完全準備就緒。我們一直在增加銷售人員。我們一直在增加實施資源。我認為2020年我們將有望在市場上取得進展，尤其是在下半年。

But again, the caution, of course, is given ADP's size and our $14 billion in revenue, this is not something that is a 1- or 2-year horizon story. This is -- in terms of impact on ADP, it's a long-term investment and is expected to have a really long-term and positive impact on our competitiveness.

當然，需要謹慎的是，考慮到 ADP 的規模和我們 140 億美元的收入，這不是一個可以著眼於一兩年的事情。就對 ADP 的影響而言，這是一項長期投資，預計將對我們的競爭力產生非常長期和積極的影響。

But we shouldn't be expecting, in fact, I would say -- it's fair to say that in the short term, we really create some financial pressure because we're putting a lot of -- besides the R&D investments that we've made over the last 4 or 5 years, now we're investing heavily in sales distribution and implementation. And as you know, and especially in the upmarket, that doesn't translate into revenues until 6, 12, 18 months down the road depending on the size and complexity of the client.

但實際上，我們不應該抱持這樣的期望——公平地說，短期內，我們確實會造成一些財務壓力，因為除了過去 4 或 5 年的研發投資外，我們現在還在銷售分銷和實施方面投入巨資。如您所知，尤其是在高端市場，這通常需要 6 個月、12 個月、18 個月的時間才能轉化為收入，具體取決於客戶的規模和複雜程度。

Yes. So we had given a range of sales units that we had expected, and we were at the high end of that range that we had given. And as Carlos said, we've been adding to sales and implementation team there, but we'll continue to do so during the course of 2020, for sure. So yes, we'll start to get more feedback during the course of the year as we do these pilots with the clients, and we'll keep you updated on that.

是的。因此，我們給出了一個預期的銷售量範圍，而我們實際的銷售量達到了預期範圍的上限。正如卡洛斯所說，我們一直在擴充那裡的銷售和實施團隊，而且我們肯定會在 2020 年繼續這樣做。是的，隨著我們與客戶開展這些試點項目，我們將在今年稍後獲得更多回饋，我們將及時向您報告最新進展。

And I think since you were, I think, very specifically talking about Lifion, but I think it's worth also mentioning we have a couple of other next-gen projects that are progressing quite well as well. One of them is more back office, our tax engine, but that's very exciting because, I think, it should lead to some real scale and efficiency gains there and more flexibility for our service organization also for our clients.

既然你剛才特別提到了 Lifion，那麼我覺得也值得一提的是，我們還有其他幾個次世代專案進展也相當順利。其中一個更偏向後台，即我們的稅務引擎，但這非常令人興奮，因為我認為它應該能夠帶來真正的規模和效率提升，並為我們的服務機構以及我們的客戶帶來更大的靈活性。

But our new payroll -- next-generation payroll solution is also kind of progressing well. I think we have around a dozen clients again in pilot. That's also a global platform with a rules-based engine. We -- we're very excited about that in terms of the flexibility that it will give us in terms of our core business around payroll, and that's also progressing quite well. And I think we are intending to ramp up our sales implementation resources on that front also.

但是我們的新薪資系統——下一代薪資解決方案——進展也相當順利。我認為我們目前又有大約十幾家客戶在進行試點計畫。那也是一個採用規則引擎的全球平台。我們對此感到非常興奮，因為它將為我們圍繞薪資的核心業務帶來更大的靈活性，而且這方面的進展也相當順利。而且我認為我們也打算加大這方面的銷售實施資源投入。

Okay. Well, I'm excited about your new tax engine. Different topic. In your 2020 guidance, you're forecasting again about 2.5% pays per control growth, which implies a pretty robust outlook on the U.S. economy. Can you highlight what you're seeing in your underlying numbers that's giving you that level of confidence as you look out into 2020?

好的。我對你們的新稅務引擎感到非常興奮。另一個話題。在你們 2020 年的業績指引中，你們再次預測每項控制措施的薪酬將成長約 2.5%，這意味著美國經濟前景相當強勁。能否重點介紹一下，您從基礎數據中看到了哪些讓您對 2020 年充滿信心的因素？

It's a very fair question. I'd say the -- given that we're not economists and don't have a crystal ball, probably, the biggest factor we look at is trend and momentum. And I think we had 2.7% in the fourth quarter, if I'm not mistaken just to check. And I think it was 2-point something...

這是一個非常合理的問題。我認為——鑑於我們不是經濟學家，也沒有水晶球，我們關注的最大因素可能是趨勢和動量。如果我沒記錯的話，第四季我們的成長率是 2.7%。我記得好像是2點幾點…

It's 2.8%.

是2.8%。

2.8% before that. So we -- we're believers that when it comes to the economy, the economy behaves somewhat similar to ADP, which is things don't change that quickly overnight, unless there is, of course, some kind of external shock.

此前為2.8%。所以我們相信，就經濟而言，經濟的運作方式與ADP（平均每日支出）有些類似，也就是說，除非受到某種外部衝擊，否則事物不會在一夜之間快速改變。

So could that number end up exiting at a lower rate by the end of the year due to an economic slowdown? I mean, that's up to the economists to forecast and to predict. But based on what we're seeing, like, in the trends and the momentum, we just issued our employment report actually this morning, and it was once again, I think, kind of in the target, if you will. I think it was 150,000-something jobs.

那麼，由於經濟放緩，到年底這個數字會不會以更低的速度退出市場呢？我的意思是，這應該由經濟學家來預測和推論。但根據我們目前看到的趨勢和勢頭來看，我們今天早上剛發布了就業報告，我認為，它再次達到了預期目標。我想應該是15萬多個工作機會。

So it feels like there's still some gas in the tank. And when we look at labor force participation there, we do -- even though we're not economists, we do look at these things. And yes, unemployment is very low and that should make it a little bit harder to find people, but there are still a lot of people out there.

感覺油箱裡還有一些油。當我們觀察那裡的勞動參與率時，我們確實會——即使我們不是經濟學家，我們也會關注這些方面。沒錯，失業率很低，這應該會讓找工作變得稍微困難一些，但仍然有很多求職者。

And I know there are explanations around the baby boomers retiring and so forth, but it appears every month that we and the government and everyone else is surprised by the ability to bring more people into the workforce. So we think that, at least, for the next couple of quarters, that feels like a good bet. And I think beyond that, probably up to the economists.

我知道這可以用嬰兒潮世代退休等等原因來解釋，但似乎每個月我們、政府以及其他所有人都會對能夠讓更多人加入勞動力感到驚訝。所以我們認為，至少在接下來的幾個季度裡，這是一個不錯的選擇。而我認為，除此之外，可能就得看經濟學家們的了。

And our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just wanted to ask on Employee Services growth. I know at the Analyst Day, we talked about 5% to 6%. It's only modestly different now, 4% to 5% and just the different factors going into that guide now from what we've learned over the last year. And also, I think, Kathleen, you talked a little bit about beating expectations and revenue, which had some impact as well.

想問一下員工服務部門的發展。我知道在分析師日上，我們討論過 5% 到 6% 的比例。現在只有輕微的變化，4%到5%，這只是過去一年我們了解到的情況，現在納入該指南的不同因素而已。而且，凱瑟琳，我認為你也談到了超出預期和收入的情況，這也產生了一定的影響。

Yes. I think that I'll let Kathleen talk about the math. But just as a overall big picture, again, as we get further away from Investor Day, there's a lot of things that go into the mix. For Employer Services, for example, we do now include client funds interest in Employer Services. And so we're getting slightly less contribution from that in '20 versus Investor Day and versus '19.

是的。我想還是讓凱瑟琳來談談數學吧。但從整體來看，隨著距離投資者日越來越遠，有許多因素需要考慮。例如，對於雇主服務，我們現在確實將客戶資金在雇主服務中的權益納入。因此，與投資者日和 2019 年相比，我們在 2020 年從中獲得的貢獻略有減少。

We also have a little bit of FX pressure that, obviously, it's not something that we forecasted at Investor Day. So I think those generally would explain -- I think over the 2 years of '19 and '20, I would say that Employer Services growth is in line with Investor Day.

我們也面臨一些外匯壓力，顯然，這並非我們在投資人日上預測到的情況。所以我認為這些總體上可以解釋——我認為在 2019 年和 2020 年這兩年裡，雇主服務的成長與投資者日的情況一致。

Yes. I don't really have anything to add further. I mean, those are the factors. As Carlos mentioned, there's various puts and takes, but generally in line with those expectations.

是的。我沒什麼要補充的了。我的意思是，這些都是影響因素。正如卡洛斯提到的那樣，會有各種各樣的出入，但總體上符合這些預期。

Okay. And just as a follow-up. Wanted to ask about the M&A pipeline and what you guys might be looking at to continue to add and supplement to the portfolio.

好的。作為後續補充。我想問一下併購專案的進展，以及你們可能會關注哪些專案來繼續增加和補充投資組合。

Well, we -- this fourth quarter, the client list acquisition that we made, I think, peaked our interest in using our capital in more than just kind of the traditional organic fashion. And we did do a few acquisitions. If you recall, we acquired Global Cash Card. We just acquired Celergo, WorkMarket.

嗯，我認為，我們——在第四季度，我們收購了客戶名單，這激發了我們以不同於傳統有機增長方式的方式來使用資本的興趣。我們也進行了一些收購。如果你還記得的話，我們收購了環球現金卡公司。我們剛剛收購了 Celergo 和 WorkMarket。

So we planted some seeds, and some of those were really investments in the future. So call it, 2, 3, 5, 10 years down the road, WorkMarket, as an example, we're incredibly excited about strategically, but it's just -- and because of its size in relation to the size of ADP, today, it doesn't really change the numbers a lot. But it could down the road. It's a very large market for freelancers out there.

所以我們播下了一些種子，其中一些實際上是對未來的投資。所以，不妨把它看作是 2 年、3 年、5 年、10 年後的發展，以 WorkMarket 為例，我們在戰略上對此感到無比興奮，但就目前而言，由於其規模相對於 ADP 而言較小，它並不會真正改變很多數字。但將來有可能。自由工作者市場非常龐大。

So the question is, besides that, are there things that we can use our capital for that would have a greater impact on the kind of short-term revenue, if you will? And we're certainly interested in looking, but we're also highly disciplined, right, in terms of requiring the right kinds of returns.

所以問題是，除此之外，我們是否可以利用我們的資金做一些事情，從而對短期收入產生更大的影響？我們當然有興趣進行考察，但我們也非常注重紀律，對回報的要求也很高。

And as you know, the bar for us is -- one of our bars is that we are trying to avoid adding a lot of additional platforms because we've been working very, very hard to rationalize platforms and to migrate clients onto our strategic platforms.

如您所知，我們的標準之一是——我們的標準之一是，我們盡量避免增加許多額外的平台，因為我們一直在非常努力地對平台進行合理化，並將客戶遷移到我們的策略平台上。

So that does create a little bit of a high bar, but it doesn't mean that we wouldn't be willing, in some extraordinary circumstance, to make an exception. If it was a very strategic opportunity, we may be willing to spend the time and the effort to migrate clients off of an existing platform onto our platform, like we did with Global Cash Card, as an example.

所以這確實設定了一個較高的標準，但這並不代表在某些特殊情況下，我們不願意破例。如果這是一個非常具有策略意義的機會，我們可能願意投入時間和精力，將客戶從現有平台遷移到我們的平台上，就像我們之前對 Global Cash Card 所做的那樣。

And our next question comes from Mark Marcon with R.W. Baird.

下一個問題來自 R.W. Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

You had really nice progress with regards to the client retention improvement. I'm wondering if you can talk about how broad-based that was. It sounds like there was really good improvement on the mid-market, but wondering to what extent that extended to the other areas. And then you're looking for some more improvement going forward. I'm wondering if that's expected to be broad-based or how we should think about that.

你們在提高客戶留存率方面取得了非常好的進展。我想請您談談這件事的影響範圍有多廣。聽起來中端市場確實有了很大的改善，但我想知道這種改善在多大程度上擴展到了其他地區。然後，你希望未來能有更大的進步。我想知道這是否意味著會是廣泛性的，或者我們應該如何看待這個問題。

So yes, a little bit of color is that the reason we called out -- as we usually do, we try to call out the 1 or 2 things that are the most significant in terms of moving the numbers. But whether it's with retention or other parts of our business, the rest of the business is performing relatively well. It's very hard to generate that kind of improvement.

所以，是的，一點色彩的加入正是我們指出的原因——就像我們通常會做的那樣，我們會盡量指出對數字產生影響的最重要一兩件事。但無論是客戶留存或我們業務的其他部分，其餘業務都表現得相對良好。要取得這種程度的進步非常困難。

So in terms of additional color, in our SBS business, as an example, we had record-high retention, but it was off of what was already a very high retention rate, so it was what I'll call a modest improvement in retention, but frankly, very satisfying because we're trying -- we try to stay away from quarterly or specific business segment discussions about retention because there is -- there can be volatility in those numbers. But to see the SBS retention improve on top of where they already were after 5 years of improvement was very satisfying.

所以，就其他方面而言，以我們的 SBS 業務為例，我們的用戶留存率創歷史新高，但這是在原本就非常高的留存率基礎上實現的，所以我稱之為留存率的適度提升，但坦白說，這非常令人滿意，因為我們正在努力——我們盡量避免就用戶留存率進行季度或特定業務部門的討論，因為這些數字可能會出現波動。但看到 SBS 的留存率在經過 5 年的改進後，在原有基礎上進一步提高，這非常令人滿意。

But the real standout was really our mid-market business, and it really performed according to script. So we -- as you know, we went through some very difficult times in 2017 with the combination of ACA happening right in the middle of when we were trying to migrate our clients off of our legacy platforms onto our current version of Workforce Now.

但真正表現突出的是我們的中端市場業務，它的表現完全符合預期。如你所知，我們在 2017 年經歷了非常艱難的時期，當時正值我們試圖將客戶從舊平台遷移到當前版本的 Workforce Now 平台之際，ACA 法案的出台更是雪上加霜。

And what we said at the time was that we wanted -- the script was we wanted to follow what happened in our down-market business where we consolidated and migrated all of our clients onto one single platform called RUN. And after that, for 4 or 5 years, we had very healthy increases in retention, very healthy increases in new business bookings and just great performance in the business around margins.

當時我們說的是，我們想要——劇本是，我們想要效仿我們在低端市場業務中的做法，將所有客戶整合並遷移到一個名為 RUN 的單一平台上。在那之後的 4 到 5 年裡，我們的客戶留存率、新業務預訂量都實現了非常健康的成長，業務利潤率也取得了非常好的成績。

And so for fiscal year '19, we're very happy that our mid-market business followed that part of the script of really taking the benefits of a simpler environment, both for our associates and for our clients. And we're hoping that there's more gas in the tank.

因此，在 2019 財年，我們非常高興我們的中端市場業務遵循了這一策略，真正享受到了更簡單環境帶來的好處，這既有利於我們的員工，也有利於我們的客戶。我們希望油箱裡還有油。

And then the rest of the business performed, I would say, well. We don't have any -- I don't think there are any places where we have -- that rises to the occasion of us mentioning that we had a big dip in retention in Employer Services.

至於其他業務，我認為表現都不錯。我們沒有——我認為沒有任何地方——值得一提的是，我們在雇主服務方面的員工留任率大幅下降。

That's great. And then it sounds like there's a lot of excitement around on-demand pay. I'm wondering, when we think about the concept and the promise that that holds, how should we gauge that relative to being realistic in terms of when it's actually going to really generate a material revenue? How do you envision that rolling out over the next 2 to 5 years?

那太棒了。聽起來大家對按需付款也很有興趣。我想知道，當我們思考這個概念及其蘊含的潛力時，我們應該如何衡量它與現實之間的差距，即它何時才能真正產生實質的收入？您設想在未來2到5年內如何推廣實施？

My instinct would tell me slowly and with very little impact. But it could be important competitively. And so I think being able to provide these solutions in a market where, again, we already have a very large new business bookings number and we have every year to grow that number, we need to every weapon in the arsenal.

我的直覺會慢慢地、幾乎不產生任何影響地告訴我這一點。但這在競技層面可能很重要。因此，我認為，在一個我們已經擁有非常龐大的新業務預訂量，並且每年都需要成長的市場中，要提供這些解決方案，我們需要利用一切可用的手段。

So we are still very positive and optimistic about that business and -- but over the course of a couple of years, I would say, I would have modest expectations around financial impact. Longer term, we have a lot of -- we didn't buy Global Cash Card without keeping in the back of our minds that this was a potential very large opportunity for us down the road. But again, I hate to sound like a broken record, but in relation to the size of ADP, we look at all these things over the course of 3, 5, 7 years rather than what's it going to do in the next couple of years.

所以我們仍然對這項業務非常積極樂觀，但就未來幾年而言，我對財務影響的預期比較保守。從長遠來看，我們有很多——當我們購買 Global Cash Card 時，始終牢記著這在未來可能會為我們帶來一個巨大的機會。但是，我不想老生常談，但就 ADP 的規模而言，我們著眼於未來 3 年、5 年、7 年的發展，而不是它在未來幾年內的發展。

I appreciate that. And then lastly, just on the PEO side. Any changes in the market that you can discern, Carlos, with regards to just when we take a look at WSE growth and how we should expect trends to unfold? Or any regional differences? Anything that's changed with regards to the promise there?

我很感激。最後，就 PEO 這邊而言。卡洛斯，就我們何時觀察華沙證券交易所的成長以及我們應該預期趨勢如何發展而言，你認為市場有哪些變化？或存在任何地區差異？關於之前的承諾，情況有改變嗎？

No. I mean, I think it's still a little bit of the same -- a similar story where we do say and the industry says the same thing every year, but it's still true that it's a relatively underpenetrated market. So I think there's no lack of opportunity in terms of addressable market out there.

不。我的意思是，我認為情況仍然有些類似——每年我們和業內人士都會說同樣的話，但市場滲透率相對較低仍然是事實。所以我認為，就潛在市場而言，機會並不匱乏。

I think the key is really being very disciplined about your health care and your workers' compensation, so that you have a truly long-term, sustainable and viable business model. And I think we've tried to follow that approach by taking no risk on our health benefits and being very disciplined and careful on workers' comp where we have indemnity, which is run by corporate, which provides the pricing to our PEO and frankly, where we also offload most of that risk. As you know, in our 10-K, we fully disclose the way we collar basically that risk to a relatively small number.

我認為關鍵在於要對自己的醫療保健和工傷賠償保持高度的自律，這樣才能擁有一個真正長期、可持續和可行的商業模式。我認為我們一直努力遵循這種做法，在健康福利方面不冒任何風險，在工傷賠償方面非常自律和謹慎，我們有賠償金，由公司負責運營，公司向我們的 PEO 提供定價，坦白說，我們也把大部分風險轉移給了他們。如您所知，我們在 10-K 文件中充分揭露了我們如何將這種風險控制在相對較小的範圍內。

So I think the key is just really focusing on the value proposition and not getting distracted by the short-term fluctuations and volatility of health care costs. And I think that's served us well, and that's what we're going to continue to do.

所以我認為關鍵在於真正關注價值主張，而不要被醫療成本的短期波動和不穩定性所分散注意力。我認為這對我們很有幫助，我們也會繼續這樣做。

We have obviously inherent advantage in -- that we try to exploit of having a very large installed base and a very large referral network called the ADP Salesforce outside of the PEO. And so you heard us talk last year about tweaking these incentives in the mid-market. We had -- we got great results from that. We had double-digit growth in referrals from our mid-market business. I think you saw it translate into really good results in our new business bookings. I think we talked about double-digit bookings growth in the PEO for the year.

我們顯然擁有固有的優勢——我們試圖利用我們龐大的用戶基礎和龐大的推薦網絡，即 PEO 以外的 ADP Salesforce。所以你們去年也聽到了我們討論如何調整中階市場的這些激勵措施。我們採取了措施，並取得了很好的結果。我們的中端市場業務推薦量實現了兩位數的成長。我認為你已經看到了這在我們新業務預訂中轉化為非常好的成果。我想我們之前討論過 PEO 今年的預訂量將實現兩位數成長。

So we're feeling pretty good about the PEO business. And I think nothing that I can see has changed dramatically. The environment, compared to 3 or 4 years ago, there's less rhetoric around regulatory issues and obviously ACA. People go back and forth on that. But there's enough state and local regulation that small companies deal with that it's a target-rich environment for whether it's a PEO or some of our other traditional services. It's very hard to be a small employer out there.

所以我們對 PEO 業務感覺相當不錯。我覺得我所看到的並沒有什麼顯著的改變。與 3 或 4 年前相比，現在圍繞著監管問題和《平價醫療法案》(ACA) 的言論減少了。人們對此看法不一。但小公司需要應對大量的州和地方監管，因此無論是 PEO 還是我們的一些其他傳統服務，都存在著大量的目標市場。如今，當一家小型雇主真的很難。

And our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

I'm curious -- when you think about the $1.6 billion of bookings that you added in fiscal '19, I'm curious if maybe you can give some color on the composition when you think about it as core payroll versus some of the additional offerings that are in Employer Services. What was particularly strong? And what drove the outperformance relative to expectations? And then I have one follow-up question.

我很好奇——考慮到您在 2019 財年新增的 16 億美元訂單，我很想知道，如果您將其視為核心工資單與雇主服務中的一些附加產品，能否詳細說明一下其構成？哪些方面特別突出？是什麼因素導致了超乎預期的表現？我還有一個後續問題。

I'm sorry. Back to the beginning of your question, are you talking about 2019?

對不起。回到你最初的問題，你指的是 2019 年嗎？

Yes. So fiscal '19, as you think about the strong bookings performance within Employer Services, if you think by product or by the services that are offered in Employer Services, was there anything that stood out in particular that was particularly strong and/or that drove the outperformance?

是的。那麼，在回顧 2019 財年雇主服務強勁的預訂業績時，如果您按產品或雇主服務提供的服務來考慮，是否有任何特別突出、特別強勁和/或推動業績超常的因素？

Yes. And I think we -- we're kind of generally in line with the last couple of years about where we were in terms of about 60-40 in terms of the breakdown between new and upsell opportunity, and that's kind of not that far off from our historic numbers.

是的。我認為我們——就新客戶和追加銷售機會的比例而言，我們總體上與過去幾年基本持平，大約為 60:40，這與我們的歷史數據相差不大。

But a couple of other places where we had good results, we talked about SBS in the down-market. They were on a great trajectory to begin with. And I think the client list conversion "acquisition" that we did at the end of the year helped that even more. So we had just really great results in SBS. But our international business did well also particularly because of the MNC multinational sales that we have with GlobalView and Celergo streamline. So that was also a big positive.

但在其他幾個我們取得良好業績的地方，我們也談到了低階市場的 SBS。他們一開始就處於非常有利的發展軌道上。我認為我們在年底進行的客戶名單轉換“獲取”對此起到了更大的幫助。我們在SBS比賽中取得了非常好的成績。但我們的國際業務也表現良好，這主要得益於我們與 GlobalView 和 Celergo Streamline 達成的跨國公司銷售協議。所以這也是一個很大的利多因素。

And frankly, our domestic upmarket business did pretty well. We had a good -- they had a good year on new business bookings, so we were pleased with that. So we had -- I would say, probably, SBS is probably the standout with some tailwind because of the client list acquisition, but I think we had broad-based strength.

坦白說，我們的國內高端市場業務做得相當不錯。我們——他們今年的新業務預訂情況很好，所以我們對此感到滿意。所以，我認為，SBS 可能是最突出的，因為它獲得了客戶名單的助力，但我認為我們擁有廣泛的實力。

Great. And then just a follow-up on the additional $26 million of savings expected from the changes internally to the structure to make things more streamlined. I'm curious if that's something that's part of a -- more to come. Or is that maybe the last of what you see as restructuring that's needed as part of driving efficiencies?

偉大的。然後，我想跟進一下，透過內部結構調整，讓流程更加精簡，預計還能節省 2,600 萬美元。我很好奇這是否是某個系列的一部分——敬請期待。或者，這或許是你認為為提高效率而需要進行的最後一項重組？

Or how should we think about that in the context of that new $26 million and then with the $150 million of savings driven by the -- is there additional other efficiencies that the company thinks they can drive from that perspective?

或者，我們應該如何看待這筆新增的 2,600 萬美元，以及由此帶來的 1.5 億美元的節省——公司是否認為他們還可以從這個角度提高效率？

Yes. Thanks for your question, Samad. Just to clarify, the $26 million was the charge we took, the severance charge in Q4 of 2019 related to the workforce optimization, if you will, efforts in terms of looking at spans and layers and so forth. That will drive -- in addition to that, plus the procurement work we're doing, will drive about $100 million of savings in fiscal 2020.

是的。謝謝你的提問，薩馬德。澄清一下，這 2,600 萬美元是我們提列的費用，也是 2019 年第四季與勞動力優化相關的遣散費，也就是在審視跨度、層級等方面所做的努力。除此之外，加上我們正在進行的採購工作，將在 2020 財年節省約 1 億美元。

And I would say that -- just to add a little bit of color to it because your comment about are we done with kind of trying to look for efficiency gains or are we done with the restructuring, the answer is no. I think that the -- we're a very large complex global organization. And I think we have a lot of opportunity for improvement.

我想補充一點——因為你提到我們是否已經停止尋求提高效率或停止重組，答案是否定的。我認為－我們是一個非常龐大、複雜的全球性組織。我認為我們還有很大的進步空間。

We probably always will, but I think, in the short term, we have a lot of opportunity just because of what we're seeing with the capabilities of our new platforms, as an example. They really, I think, highlight the opportunities we have for automation, for digitization and for efficiency. And so we intend to continue to stay on that path here for some time to come. So I think we're -- the answer is we're not done. I think we still have a lot out there.

我們可能一直都會這樣做，但我認為，就短期而言，我們有很多機會，例如，因為我們從新平台的功能中看到了這一點。我認為，它們確實突顯了我們在自動化、數位化和提高效率方面所擁有的機會。因此，我們打算在未來一段時間內繼續沿著這條道路走下去。所以我覺得──答案是：我們還沒完成。我認為我們還有很多東西有待挖掘。

Yes. I mean and just to kind of add on to it a little bit more. There's really a lot of energy and alignment, and those 2 things together are really important. A lot of energy and alignment in the organization around doing this transformation work, and there's -- it's a lot of hard work.

是的。我的意思是，再補充一點。這裡充滿了活力和默契，這兩點結合起來非常重要。組織內部圍繞著這項轉型工作投入了大量精力，並且目標一致，但這確實是一項艱鉅的工作。

There's a lot of execution work going on, but there's also a lot of work around developing the pipeline, what are the next set of projects that we're doing in areas like -- is there potentially more on procurement, is there more in terms of how we utilize our facilities, automation projects? I mean, there's a whole, whole host of things that we can look at here.

目前有很多執行工作正在進行，但也有很多工作圍繞著開發管道展開，我們接下來在哪些領域開展項目，例如——採購方面是否有可能開展更多工作，我們如何利用我們的設施，自動化項目方面是否有更多工作？我的意思是，這裡有很多很多事情我們可以看看。

Our next question is from David Grossman with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 David Grossman。

Carlos, you've done a good job of outlining how the operational changes that have been made at ADP over the last 2 years as well as describing the new product initiatives underway. How should we think about which of these will be most impactful to revenue growth over the next 12 to 24 months?

卡洛斯，你很好地概述了 ADP 在過去兩年中發生的營運變化，並描述了正在進行的新產品計劃。我們該如何思考，在未來 12 到 24 個月內，哪些因素對營收成長的影響最大？

I don't mean to insult you, but I don't spend a lot of time thinking about the next 12 months because the -- like this thing is -- ADP is the -- from a recurring revenue standpoint, the momentum that we have is hopefully discernible, right, in terms of when you look at retention, you look at new business bookings and you look at the momentum of our business, we tend to spend more time on the kind of 24 months and beyond time frame.

我無意冒犯您，但我不會花太多時間思考未來 12 個月，因為——就像這件事一樣——ADP——從經常性收入的角度來看，我們所擁有的發展勢頭應該很明顯，對吧？當你觀察客戶留存率、新業務預訂量以及我們業務的發展勢頭時，我們往往會把更多時間花在 24 個月及更長的時間框架上。

But having said that, I think some of the recent acquisitions that we made over the last couple of years, I think, are strengthening our product line. I think that the next-generation products that are actually really getting sold now and getting implemented have the ability to start really moving the needle on new business bookings. But those have relatively modest impacts on our overall revenues just because of the size of the business.

但話雖如此，我認為我們近兩年進行的一些收購正在加強我們的產品線。我認為，目前正在銷售和實施的下一代產品有能力真正推動新業務預訂量的成長。但由於公司規模較小，這些因素對我們的整體營收影響相對較小。

So it's not because of lack of excitement around the things that we are doing that I say that the 12-month horizon is really not something that I spend a lot of time on. It's just because of the math, in terms of the way the math operates.

所以，並不是因為我對我們正在做的事情缺乏熱情，才說我不太關注未來 12 個月的規劃。這完全是因為數學的運作方式。

But I think that we have a number of things that we've been working on for -- and it's not really just over the last couple of years. We've focused a lot on the last couple of years around kind of increasing the pace of change, moving faster and also becoming a little bit more incrementally efficient, whether it was through the voluntary retirement, through the strategic alignment initiatives or some of the other things that we've done.

但我認為我們有很多事情一直在努力——而且不僅僅是最近幾年。在過去的幾年裡，我們非常注重加快變革的步伐，加快發展速度，並逐步提高效率，無論是透過自願退休、策略調整計畫還是我們所做的其他一些事情。

But I think our sales force, our products and the rest of our business continues to execute at a very high level. And fortunately, now we're getting that -- the benefit of those -- that execution, plus we're getting reasonable margin improvement because of some of these actions that we've taken. So we're very happy and very satisfied with the performance, and I don't expect to be any less satisfied over the next 12 months.

但我認為我們的銷售團隊、產品以及公司其他部門的營運水準依然非常高。幸運的是，現在我們得到了這些措施帶來的好處——執行力的提升，而且由於我們採取的一些行動，我們的利潤率也得到了合理的提高。所以我們對目前的表現非常滿意，而且我預計在接下來的 12 個月裡，我們的滿意度不會降低。

Right. I think the spirit of the question was operationally, obviously, you've done a great job, which has impacted retention and service levels, which obviously impacts also new sales.

正確的。我認為這個問題的重點在於營運方面，顯然你們做得非常出色，這影響了客戶留存率和服務水平，而這顯然也影響了新銷售。

I guess, I was just trying to understand whether or not some of the product initiatives could in fact be more impactful, if you will, over the next 24 months or so. Or do you think it's going to be just kind of an even kind of contribution as it's always been over the last several years?

我想，我只是想了解一下，在接下來的 24 個月左右的時間裡，一些產品舉措是否真的能夠產生更大的影響。或者你認為它會像過去幾年一樣，貢獻比例保持平均？

Well, since you mentioned 24 months, that's a different story. So I do think that given the ramp and the -- kind of the lines that we have on the charts -- on the graph, if you will, of what we expect from our next-gen products, I would expect that over the 24-month horizon, there will be a measurable impact, particularly on new business bookings from next-gen.

既然你提到了 24 個月，那就另當別論了。所以我認為，考慮到成長速度以及我們在圖表上顯示的曲線，也就是我們對下一代產品的預期，我預計在未來 24 個月內，將會有可衡量的影響，尤其是在下一代產品帶來的新業務預訂方面。

But in the -- kind of the 12-month time frame, the things we've done for example around moving Workforce Now into the upmarket, I think, has been incredibly impactful and helpful in the upmarket competitively for us. We're also using our Workforce Now platform and the PEO now and our HRO business, which has been incredibly impactful. So now we have a very large next-gen platform because we consider Workforce Now to be next-gen as well to be out there competitively. So that's very helpful.

但在過去 12 個月的時間裡，我們所做的一些事情，例如將 Workforce Now 推向高端市場，我認為，這些事情對我們在高端市場的競爭力產生了巨大的影響和幫助。我們目前也在使用我們的 Workforce Now 平台、PEO Now 和 HRO 業務，這些都產生了巨大的影響。所以現在我們擁有一個非常龐大的下一代平台，因為我們認為 Workforce Now 也是下一代產品，以便在市場上具有競爭力。那很有幫助。

This retention improvement that we've talked about, beneath the surface of that is really big improvements in NPS scores, client satisfaction and reference ability. And I think that probably -- that alone has the single biggest potential impact on our sales force and our growth because we have a very large distribution network out there. And any improvement in productivity for them because of any kind of tailwind, and I think the reputation and reference ability and client satisfaction can provide that tailwind, I think, can really move the needle.

我們討論過的這種客戶留存率的提高，其背後是 NPS 分數、客戶滿意度和推薦能力的顯著提升。而且我認為，僅此一項就可能對我們的銷售團隊和成長產生最大的潛在影響，因為我們擁有非常龐大的分銷網絡。任何有利因素帶來的生產力提升，我認為聲譽、口碑和客戶滿意度都能帶來這種有利因素，我認為這真的能帶來顯著的改變。

And then lastly, the RUN platform, our downmarket platform just continues to execute incredibly well. And they continue to innovate, and we have a couple of things cooking there as well in terms of things in the downmarket that we think could also strengthen our hand in the marketplace as well there.

最後，我們的面向低端市場的平台 RUN 平台也持續表現出色。他們不斷創新，我們也有一些針對低端市場的產品正在研發中，我們認為這些產品也能增強我們在低階市場的競爭力。

Great. And just one other question really just on cyclicality. I -- just looking at the headlines from your report this morning and some of the reports from Paychex and their monthly report over the last several months, it looks like small business hiring is challenged with the tight labor markets. And is that typical for the stage of the cycle? And have you seen any impact of that in your downmarket business or the PEO?

偉大的。還有一個關於週期性的問題。我——僅從今天早上你們的報道標題以及 Paychex 過去幾個月的月度報告來看，小企業招聘似乎正面臨勞動力市場緊張的挑戰。這是該週期階段的典型情況嗎？您是否發現這對您的低端市場業務或 PEO 有任何影響？

I -- you catch me with a little bit of a disadvantage to that. I don't think I even looked at my own employment report. I looked at the headline numbers, which is 150-something thousand, but it sounds like there was something about small business employment slowing there. But I don't -- I think that based on kind of the trend, if you will, over multiple months, I don't think there's anything really to read there. It is true that our pays per control number comes largely as a -- from a subset of our AutoPay payroll engine, which is -- does not include SBS. But we're not really seeing anything -- I mean, our impact would be -- or we would feel it if there was a big issue in SBS. We have pays per control growth in SBS of 1.7 for the year. I'm not sure if I have prior years that I could compare that to, but it's positive and it's growing.

我——你讓我在這方面稍微處於劣勢。我甚至都沒看過自己的就業報告。我看了主要數據，有 15 萬多人，但聽起來好像是小型企業就業放緩了。但我認為——根據幾個月來的趨勢來看，我認為這裡沒有什麼真正值得解讀的東西。確實，我們按控制號碼支付的工資主要來自我們的 AutoPay 工資引擎的一個子集，該子集不包括 SBS。但我們並沒有真正看到任何影響——我的意思是，如果 SBS 出現重大問題，我們肯定會受到影響——或者說，我們會感受到影響。今年 SBS 的每項控制措施的支付成長率為 1.7。我不確定是否有往年的數據可以用來比較，但情況總體良好，而且還在增長。

And the question about the cycle, we probably have some data that I have to go back and look at, but that's probably more of a question for economists in terms of what turns down first. Is it large employer hiring? Or is it small business hiring? It's -- I'm not sure that I have that one at the top of my -- on my fingertips. But there's really nothing...

至於週期性問題，我可能需要回顧相關數據，但這可能更像是經濟學家需要思考的問題，也就是什麼會先下跌。這是大型企業招募嗎？還是這是小型企業招募？我不太確定我是否能立刻想起來。但實際上什麼也沒有…

It's roughly comparable to last year's growth rate. And SBS pays per control is roughly comparable to this year's.

與去年的成長率大致相當。SBS 的單次控制費用與今年大致相當。

Yes. Pays per -- yes, so that -- it feels similar-ish. It doesn't mean that it can't fluctuate from month to month because I don't want to contradict our employment report. But in this kind of economy, I just don't think that there's so much demand out there. And you saw the consumer spending numbers and you see what's happening in the consumer sector, a lot of small business served that part of the economy, it's just -- it's hard to believe that the small business employment is going to have a dramatic slowdown here anytime in the near future.

是的。按次付費——是的，所以——感覺差不多。但這並不意味著它不會每月波動，因為我不想與我們的就業報告相矛盾。但在當前的經濟情勢下，我認為市場需求並不大。你看到了消費者支出數據，也看到了消費領域的情況，許多小企業服務於經濟的這一部分，很難相信小企業就業在不久的將來會大幅放緩。

And our next question is from James Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的詹姆斯·施耐德。

Carlos, good to see the retention improvement in fiscal '19, the 40 basis points. If you go back and look at fiscal '19 by segment, downmarket, mid-market and upmarket and clearly, you've talked about the downmarket having done better for some time, did the mid-market retention kind of perform to your expectations? And as you look into fiscal '20, where do you expect kind of the lion share of the retention improvement to come from?

卡洛斯，很高興看到 2019 財年顧客留存率提高了 40 個基點。如果回顧 2019 財年按細分市場（低端市場、中端市場和高端市場）劃分的情況，顯然，您已經談到低端市場一段時間以來表現更好，那麼中端市場的留存率是否達到了您的預期？展望 2020 財年，您認為留存率提升的主要動力來自哪裡？

The mid-market really outperformed our expectations in fiscal year '19. The way we build our plan for '20 is, even though there are probably some tweaks here or there, we are getting back to kind of close to record high client retention. So there would be, I would considered -- I would call them modest improvements expected in various parts of our business and others kind of flattish because we just want to be realistic about the potential for retention in the absence of, for example, some large chains. So as an example, in the mid-market, we expect further improvements because we continue to still get benefits from the migrations and the consolidation of our platforms there.

2019財年，中端市場表現遠超乎我們的預期。我們制定 2020 年計畫的方式是，儘管可能會有一些調整，但我們正在努力恢復到接近歷史最高水準的客戶留存率。因此，我認為——我稱之為我們業務各個方面預期會有適度的改進，而其他方面則比較平穩，因為我們只想對在缺少一些大型連鎖店的情況下，客戶留存的可能性保持務實的態度。例如，在中端市場，我們預計會有進一步的改進，因為我們仍然會從平台遷移和整合中受益。

Yes. It's pretty modest. As we said, 10 to 20 basis points improvement for next year, and it's spread pretty evenly across the board, across the different market segments. And there's always puts and takes, but it's pretty evenly spread in terms of where that improvement comes from. And as you're at these high levels and particularly, in small business being at record highs, the higher you go, the harder it is to get that incremental retention improvement. But obviously, it's something we're continuing to focus on.

是的。它相當簡樸。正如我們所說，明年將改善 10 到 20 個基點，而且各個細分市場都將得到相當均勻的改善。總是會有得有失，但就進步的來源而言，兩者分佈得相當均勻。而且，隨著企業發展水準的提高，尤其是在小型企業發展水準達到歷史新高的情況下，企業發展水準越高，就越難實現顧客留存率的逐步提高。但很顯然，這是我們將繼續關注的重點。

And just one last little piece of color. When -- I did go back and look at where our retention rates were over the last, call it, 10 years. And we are now at a higher retention rate than we were precrisis. So if you look at '06 and '07, our retention rate was actually lower in Employer Services than it is today, despite the fact that the mix of our business is more heavily tilted now towards our downmarket business than our upmarket business. And that's, in large part, as a result of the outperformance, if you will.

最後再添一點色彩。當我回顧過去十年（姑且稱之為十年）的客戶留存率時，我…我們現在的客戶留存率比危機前更高。因此，如果你看一下 2006 年和 2007 年，你會發現，儘管我們目前的業務組合更傾向於低端市場業務而不是高端市場業務，但我們在雇主服務方面的客戶留存率實際上低於今天。這在很大程度上要歸功於其優異的表現。

So we've -- our downmarket business has grown faster over the last 10 years than our upmarket and mid-market business. And the downmarket business has a lower natural retention rate just because of out of business and bankruptcies and so forth. And so even though SBS is at record highs, that retention rate we've told you before is still lower than the mid-market and upmarket retention rates. So the fact that the overall ADP retention is higher today than it was precrisis, despite what is a very -- a much larger downmarket business, I think it is impressive.

所以，在過去的 10 年裡，我們的低端市場業務成長速度超過了我們的高端和中端市場業務。而低端市場的企業自然留存率較低，只是因為倒閉、破產等等原因。因此，儘管 SBS 的留存率達到了歷史新高，但我們之前已經告訴過你，這種留存率仍然低於中端市場和高端市場的留存率。因此，儘管低端市場業務規模要大得多，但如今 ADP 的整體客戶留存率卻高於危機前，我認為這令人印象深刻。

It's good to see. And then on the PEO business, I think, Carlos, you called out a couple of items related to some increased client churn in the quarter. Can you maybe kind of talk about what drove some of that? Was it specific offerings? Was it competitive? Was it pricing? And I guess, how do you feel about kind of improving that metric going forward in the next couple of quarters?

很高興看到這一點。關於 PEO 業務，我想，卡洛斯，你提到了本季客戶流失率上升的一些問題。您能否談談促成這些事情的一些原因？是特定的產品嗎？競爭激烈嗎？是價格問題嗎？那麼，您覺得在接下來的幾個季度裡，如何才能提高這個指標呢？

That's a good question. We spent some time kind of trying to find the silver bullet there in terms of what kind of drove this. And I think it feels like some of it was the health care renewal, which is not out of line with historical norms. And just remember that for us, from a health care standpoint, we take no risk on health care. So we pass through whatever health care cost we have. I would say that '18 was the anomaly, where we had a lower-than-normal health care renewal. And then now, we are back to kind of a more normal health care renewal, and that may have had some impact in terms of client shopping because it's a relatively large part of the overall employment -- employer cost. But we looked at it. We sliced and diced it by size of client, by industry, by geography, et cetera, and it's hard to find a pattern. Now I happen to think that's good news because that means that we think it will potentially -- something that we can work our way out of and reaccelerate the growth there.

這是個好問題。我們花了一些時間試圖找到解決這個問題的根本原因。我覺得其中一部分原因可能是醫療保健改革，這與歷史慣例並無二致。請記住，從醫療保健的角度來看，我們在醫療保健方面不承擔任何風險。所以，我們得自己承擔所有的醫療保健費用。我認為 2018 年是個例外，當時的醫療保健續約率低於正常水平。現在，醫療保健續保又恢復到了比較正常的水平，這可能對客戶的選擇產生了一定的影響，因為醫療保健在整體就業成本中佔比相對較大。但我們研究過了。我們按客戶規模、行業、地理位置等進行了細分，但很難找到規律。現在我認為這是個好消息，因為這意味著我們認為它有可能——我們可以想辦法擺脫困境，並重新加速那裡的成長。

But the renewals were actually in line with our expectations. So last year is when we were pleasantly surprised, so it's the old story of maybe, there's a little bit of a grow-over issue for the clients themselves because we got a little overexcited about the good news last year. Now even though these health care inflation rates are back to kind of historical norms, it still compares to what was better the previous year. But there may be other noises that I'm not aware in the system, but I can't really put my finger on anything that's permanent or worth kind of mentioning.

但續約結果其實符合我們的預期。所以去年我們驚喜連連，但老生常談的問題可能是，客戶本身可能會出現一些「增長過度」的情況，因為我們去年對好消息有點過於興奮了。雖然現在這些醫療保健通膨率已經恢復到某種歷史正常水平，但與前一年相比仍然有所下降。但係統中可能還有其他我沒有註意到的聲音，但我真的無法指出任何永久性的或值得一提的聲音。

And our next question will be from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just on the margin outlook. I'm curious, if we were to go back to that nice margin walk that you provided at the Analyst Day, curious what's left to do to get to that 23% and 25%. I know you're rebasing it here with 606 and what have you. But what's left to do? I know that voluntary retirement is mostly done. It sounds like Service Alignment is mostly done. Where is the focus from here?

僅就邊緣前景而言。我很好奇，如果我們回到您在分析師日上提供的那個不錯的利潤率成長路徑，那麼要達到 23% 和 25% 的目標，還需要做些什麼。我知道你在這裡用 606 之類的東西重新構建了它。但是，接下來還能做什麼呢？我知道自願退休制度已經基本完成了。看來服務調整工作基本上已經完成了。接下來的重點該放在哪裡？

Yes. So as we mentioned a little bit earlier, we've just been looking at kind of org structure, if you will, and looking at spans and layers. And so that will benefit us. And I think we're doing some procurement work, but I think there's a lot more to go on the procurement side. And as I said, the organization is really energized around not only executing what we have, but saying, "what else can we put in the pipeline?" So we've got some things near -- that will help us near term in the pipeline. And then we're working really hard to say, "Okay. What helps us 2 years out and 3 years out and after that?" And there could be a lot of automation work that we can do across the organization, whether its front line or back office. I think there's a lot yet to go in terms of identifying those opportunities. So a lot of execution work we still have to do, and we'll be working a lot on identifying new things, too.

是的。正如我們之前提到的，我們一直在研究組織結構，以及跨度和層級。這樣對我們有利。我認為我們正在做一些採購工作，但採購方面還有很多工作要做。正如我所說，公司上下都充滿活力，不僅致力於執行現有計劃，而​​且還在積極思考「我們還能推進哪些項目？」。因此，我們近期有一些專案正在籌備中，這些專案將有助於我們實現短期目標。然後我們非常努力地說：“好的。”什麼對我們未來兩年、三年、更遠的未來有幫助？我們可以在整個組織內進行許多自動化工作，無論是在一線或後台。我認為在發掘這些機會方面，我們還有很多工作要做。所以我們還有很多執行工作要做，而且我們還要花很多精力去發掘新事物。

And I think to be a little bit more -- to be even more explicit, the transformation office that we've set up, and I think as Kathleen mentioned, the whole management team, I think, is committed to kind of this increased pace of change, I think, that we've been talking about. So to be very clear, we actually have initiatives for '21 already. So we -- that's '21. I wasn't -- I didn't misspeak there. So even though we're talking about '20 in terms of financial guidance, we're meeting and talking now about things that we're working on during fiscal year 2020 that will have an impact on '21. And it's a number of different initiatives. We're not ready to talk about them because we're just not at that stage yet. But you should expect us to be talking about things that we're working on along the lines of what Kathleen mentioned, and we have those things already in process of getting ramped up. And some of them require investments and that's built into our operating plan as well.

而且我認為，更確切地說，我們設立的轉型辦公室，正如凱瑟琳所提到的那樣，整個管理團隊都致力於加快我們一直在談論的這種變革步伐。所以說清楚點，我們其實已經有了 2021 年的計畫。所以——那是21年。我沒有——我沒有說錯話。所以，儘管我們談論的是 2020 年的財務指導，但我們現在開會討論的是我們在 2020 財年正在進行的工作，這些工作將對 2021 年產生影響。而且它包含了一系列不同的舉措。我們現在還不方便談論這些事，因為我們還沒到那個階段。但你們可以期待我們談論一些我們正在努力做的事情，就像凱瑟琳提到的那樣，而且我們已經在逐步推進這些事情了。其中一些項目需要投資，這也已納入我們的營運計劃中。

On the negative side, even though we've done all these positive things back to the Investor Day, since you were asking about Investor Day and getting to the margin, one thing that's not going to help us is if interest rates stay at the same levels as they are today, that would be reasonably heavy headwind for us in '21. If you go back to Investor Day, I think you can do the math we provided you with what we expected the balances to be and what the forward curves we're saying at that time. And unfortunately, the forward curves are saying something different now. Of course, we have our optimistic hats on. And even though short-term rates might come down, that's less of an impact on us than kind of the midterm rate. So if the 3s, 5s and 7s move up a little bit as a result of, hopefully, continued economic activity and a more positive outlook about the future and about inflation, we could get some recovery there.

不利的一面是，儘管我們自投資者日以來做了這麼多積極的事情，既然你問到了投資者日和利潤率，那麼有一件事對我們不利，那就是如果利率保持在目前的水平，那將在 2021 年成為我們相當大的阻力。如果你回顧投資者日，我想你可以根據我們當時提供的預期餘額和遠期曲線來計算。但不幸的是，目前的遠期曲線卻顯示出了不同的情況。當然，我們對此持樂觀態度。即使短期利率可能會下降，但對我們的影響也遠小於中期利率。因此，如果由於經濟活動的持續開展以及對未來和通膨前景的更加樂觀，3、5 和 7 類貨幣對略有上升，我們或許可以看到一些復甦。

But as it stands today, I think we were very clear that we have about a $30 million delta for '20 versus Investor Day. And if it's $30 million for '20, I can guarantee you, it's a bigger number for '21. And I think the math is relatively straight forward.

但就目前情況來看，我認為我們已經非常明確地表示，與投資者日相比，2020 年的預算將有大約 3,000 萬美元的差額。如果 2020 年是 3000 萬美元，我可以向你保證，2021 年的數字會更大。我認為這其中的數學原理相對簡單明了。

Yes. I think if you just assume the same forward curve that we see today, if you assume that, you'd be in about the same level of interest in '21 as we're expecting in '20.

是的。我認為，如果你假設未來走勢曲線與今天看到的相同，那麼你對 2021 年的興趣程度應該與我們對 2020 年的預期大致相同。

Like I said, we have a lot of stuff cooking, so we're not -- we -- we're -- we've learned to be agile. We've learned to be adept. And we will adjust to the environment, if necessary. And just as a point of reference, in terms of being able to adjust, I will just point out that I took some notes here last night that we went -- in precrisis, our yield -- our average yield on client funds was 4.5% on approximately, I think, it was $15 billion or $16 billion in balances. And the yield on our client funds went all the way down to 1.7% before now getting back to 2.2%. And so if we were able to grow through and improve margins and improve profit going from 4.5% yield to 1.7%, I think we'll be okay because the good news is from 2.2% to 0% is less than 4.5% to 1.7%. So even if we go to 0%, ADP will continue to chug along. We'll continue to grow, and we'll continue to find ways to generate margin.

正如我所說，我們有很多事情正在進行中，所以我們——我們——我們——我們已經學會了靈活應變。我們已經學會了熟練運用。必要時，我們會適應環境。作為參考，就調整能力而言，我只想指出，我昨晚在這裡做了一些筆記，在危機之前，我們的客戶資金平均收益率為 4.5%，餘額約為 150 億美元或 160 億美元。客戶資金收益率一度跌至 1.7%，目前已回升至 2.2%。因此，如果我們能夠實現成長，提高利潤率，將收益率從 4.5% 提高到 1.7%，我認為我們就沒問題了，因為好消息是從 2.2% 到 0% 的幅度小於從 4.5% 到 1.7% 的幅度。所以即使我們跌到 0%，ADP 也會繼續穩定成長。我們將繼續發展，並將繼續尋找創造利潤的方法。

Yes. No, I know you're thoughtful about what you can control. So just really, really quick, I promise, just on the PEO side. I know there are a lot of questions. We've seen a couple of assets trade, Carlos, on the last year or so. I'm curious, did that change your thinking on maybe wanting to scale up in PEO?

是的。不，我知道你會認真考慮自己能控制的事情。所以我就簡單說幾句，保證，只說說 PEO 這方面的狀況。我知道大家有很多問題。卡洛斯，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們看到了一些資產的交易。我很好奇，這是否改變了你對擴大 PEO 規模的想法？

The -- I'm sorry. Say it one more time.

——對不起。再說一次。

Yes. So we've seen a couple of acquisitions, right, take place on the PEO front here in the last 9 months or so, if I'm counting right. Just curious if that changed you're thinking on wanting to maybe do a deal or not.

是的。所以，在過去的九個月左右，我們看到 PEO 領域發生了一些收購，對吧？如果我沒錯的話。我只是好奇，這是否改變了你對達成交易的想法。

All right. I misunderstood. I heard trading. I thought you were referring to something.

好的。我誤會了。我聽到了交易的聲音。我以為你指的是什麼。

Yes. Sorry, it's just my silly speak.

是的。抱歉，我說話太笨了。

That's all right, that's all right. The -- I think we have the same, I think, position that we had all along, which is we have capital. We -- after paying dividends and after modest share buybacks, we have excess capital, and we would love to deploy it. And I think we love the PEO business. But again, at the risk of a broken record, we're highly disciplined and [sensitive] about price, which matters in terms of what you pay in terms of valuation. But in the PEO business, there's another dimension of discipline around the quality of the business that you're buying because, again, most of our competitors take more risk than we do and that creates the potential for more volatility in their business. And so whether or not these assets that are trading that's fully contemplated or recognized, only history will tell. But we understand this business fairly well. And we -- I guess, I will leave it at that. I think we are just careful about making sure that, that's factored into any kind of due diligence, and it is what it is. So we are where we are, but we would love to find an opportunity to grow our PEO business inorganically if the opportunity were to arise.

沒關係，沒關係。我認為，我們的立場和以往一樣，那就是我們擁有資金。在支付股息和進行適度的股票回購後，我們有多餘的資金，我們很樂意將其投入使用。而且我認為我們都熱愛 PEO 產業。但再次重申，我們對價格有著高度的自律和[敏感度]，這關係到你為估值支付的價格。但在 PEO 業務中，收購業務的品質還有另一個方面的約束，因為我們的大多數競爭對手承擔的風險比我們大，這可能會導致他們的業務出現更大的波動。因此，這些交易資產是否得到了充分的考慮或認可，只有歷史才能給出答案。但我們對這個行業相當了解。嗯——我想，我就說到這裡吧。我認為我們只是謹慎地確保這一點被納入任何形式的盡職調查中，事實就是如此。所以我們現在的情況就是這樣，但如果機會出現，我們很樂意找到機會以非內生方式發展我們的 PEO 業務。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A portion for today. I am pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for his closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。我很高興將節目交給卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，請他致閉幕詞。

So I want to thank everybody for joining us today. We obviously had a strong year. You could hear our optimism. And hopefully, it came through. We have a lot of stuff going on. We executed on our voluntary early retirement program. We're very excited. It didn't come up in the call, but our new brand platform, I think, is important. It's something that is new to us as a company. And I think we think that could incrementally help our sales force and make them more productive.

所以，我要感謝今天到場的各位。顯然，我們今年取得了不錯的成績。你能感受到我們內心的樂觀。希望一切順利。我們有很多事情要做。我們執行了自願提前退休計劃。我們非常興奮。雖然電話會議中沒有提到，但我認為我們的新品牌平台非常重要。這對我們公司來說是一個全新的領域。我認為這可以逐步幫助我們的銷售團隊，並提高他們的工作效率。

And we talked a little bit about all that we have going on with our next-generation solutions, which, I think, should power ADP for the next 3, 5, 10 years and hopefully, more years to come with these global platforms. And last thing I'll say is for those of you who are not aware, we actually reached our 70th birthday this year as a company. And it's not every company that survives that long. And I thought it was -- just a second to reflect on what is it about ADP that has allowed it to make it through so many technology changes, through so many economic cycles. And I'd say that the one thing that I keep coming back to is the commitment of our organization to focus on our clients and to deliver value to them and to deliver service, I think, is probably the thing that all of my predecessors would say, and I would reiterate, is the key to our success. And we've done that by staying focused on our associates, by staying focused on what they need, by listening to them and supporting them. And they then delivered the outstanding products and the outstanding service that we delivered to our clients who then stick around with us and deliver great returns for our shareholders. And so it's been a great run for 70 years for our company. I thank all of our associates who, today, continue to carry the torch and continue to execute and work hard on our strategy to take us forward. We remain incredibly optimistic and positive about the future, and we really appreciate your support and your interest in ADP. Thanks, again, for joining us and appreciate it. Thank you.

我們也談到了我們正在進行的下一代解決方案，我認為這些解決方案應該能夠為 ADP 在未來 3 年、5 年、10 年，甚至在更長時間內，透過這些全球平台為 ADP 提供動力。最後我想說的是，可能有些人還不知道，我們公司今年其實已經成立70週年了。並不是每家公司都能存活那麼久。我當時想——只需片刻時間思考一下，ADP 究竟有什麼特質，使其能夠經受住如此多的技術變革和經濟週期的考驗。我想說，我反覆強調的一點是，我們組織致力於專注於客戶，為他們創造價值並提供優質服務。我認為，我的所有前任都會這麼說，我也要重申，這是我們成功的關鍵。我們之所以能做到這一點，是因為我們總是關注我們的員工，專注於他們的需求，並傾聽他們的意見並支持他們。然後，他們交付了我們為客戶提供的優質產品和優質服務，客戶也因此與我們保持合作關係，並為我們的股東帶來了豐厚的回報。因此，對我們公司來說，過去的70年是一段輝煌的歷程。我感謝所有同事，他們今天仍然秉承我們的精神，繼續努力執行和推動我們的策略，帶領我們向前邁進。我們對未來依然保持著無比的樂觀和積極態度，我們非常感謝您對ADP的支持和關注。再次感謝您的參與，非常感謝。謝謝。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude the call. You may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.

女士們、先生們，通話到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。大家好。