自動資料處理 (ADP) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Daniel, and I will be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫丹尼爾，我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2019財年第二季財報電話會議。我想告知各位，本次會議正在錄影。（操作說明）

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Christian Greyenbuhl, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂安·格雷恩布爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining ADP's Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call and Webcast. With me today are Carlos Rodriguez, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jan Siegmund, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，大家早安。感謝您參加ADP 2019財年第二季財報電話會議及網路直播。今天陪同我的是我們的總裁兼執行長卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，以及我們的財務長揚·西格蒙德。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the second quarter of fiscal 2019. These materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the quarterly investor presentation that accompanies today's call as well as our quarterly history of revenue and pretax earnings by reportable segment.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2019 財年第二季的業績報告。這些資料可在 SEC 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上找到，您還可以在那裡找到今天電話會議的季度投資者演示文稿以及我們按報告分部劃分的季度收入和稅前收益歷史記錄。

During our call today, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors, and that exclude the impact of certain items in the second quarter and full year of fiscal 2019 as well as the second quarter and full year fiscal 2018. Description of these items and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非GAAP財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且這些指標排除了2019財年第二季度和全年以及2018財年第二季度和全年某些項目的影響。這些項目的說明以及這些非GAAP指標的調節表可在我們的獲利報告中找到。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and, as such, involve some risks. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些關於未來事件的前瞻性陳述，因此存在一定的風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。

As always, please do not hesitate to reach out should you have any questions. And with that, let me turn the call over to Carlos.

如有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。那麼，現在讓我把電話交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Christian, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。

This morning, we reported our second quarter fiscal 2019 results with revenue of $3.5 billion, up 8% on both the reported and organic constant currency basis. We are pleased with this revenue growth, which was slightly above our expectations and which was aided in part by the continued strength of our Employer Services downmarket and multinational solutions and our PEO.

今天上午，我們公佈了 2019 財年第二季業績，營收達 35 億美元，按報告匯率和自然成長率（以固定匯率計算）均成長 8%。我們對這一收入成長感到滿意，這略高於我們的預期，部分原因是我們的雇主服務下行市場和跨國解決方案以及我們的 PEO 業務持續強勁。

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 30% to $1.34 and benefited from our strong revenue growth as well as adjusted EBIT margin expansion, a lower adjusted effective tax rate and fewer shares outstanding.

調整後的稀釋每股收益成長了 30%，達到 1.34 美元，這得益於我們強勁的收入增長、經調整後的 EBIT 利潤率擴大、經調整後的有效稅率降低以及流通股數量減少。

Our results this quarter continue to highlight the underlying strength of our business model. As we continue to experience the benefits of operating efficiencies, enabled by our ongoing transformation efforts, we also continue to see improvements in our cost base across our businesses and back-office functions. We remain excited with the progress of our investments in technology, including our next-gen solutions, and we are also pleased with the performance of our recent acquisitions.

本季業績持續凸顯了我們商業模式的內在優勢。隨著我們不斷享受營運效率提升帶來的好處（這得益於我們持續的轉型努力），我們也看到我們各個業務部門和後台職能的成本基礎不斷改善。我們對在技術方面的投資進展感到興奮，包括我們的下一代解決方案，我們也對近期收購的業績感到滿意。

As we continue our efforts to accelerate our investments to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of our products and services, we also continue to see improvements in our overall client satisfaction scores. With these positive trends across our businesses, we are reaffirming our expectation of 25 to 50 basis points of improvement in ES revenue retention for fiscal 2019.

隨著我們不斷加大投資力度，以提高產品和服務的效率和效果，我們也持續看到客戶整體滿意度評分的提高。鑑於我們各項業務的正面趨勢，我們重申對 2019 財年 ES 營收留存率提高 25 至 50 個基點的預期。

Moving onto Employer Services new business bookings. This quarter, we saw bookings growth below our expectations with 1% growth for the quarter. As can happen in some years, the timing of the December holidays and our own selling calendar played a larger-than-anticipated role, which resulted in a number of deals, particularly within the mid- and upmarket, pushing into the third fiscal quarter. While we see a similar pattern from time to time, the impact this year was a bit more pronounced than typical. And it's also important to remember that new business bookings has inherent variability quarter-to-quarter. With that said, we continue to see strong bookings performance in our downmarket, multinational and HRO businesses and are largely pleased with our product positioning, win rates and overall sales strategy. For these reasons, despite the lower-than-expected growth this quarter, we are maintaining our forecast of 6% to 8% ES new business bookings growth for fiscal 2019.

接下來是雇主服務的新業務預訂。本季預訂量成長低於預期，季度成長率為 1%。就像某些年份可能會發生的那樣，12 月假期的時間表和我們自己的銷售計劃發揮了比預期更大的作用，導致許多交易，尤其是在中高端市場，推遲到了第三財季。雖然我們時不時會看到類似的模式，但今年的影響比往年更明顯一些。此外，還需要記住，新業務預訂量本身就存在季度間的波動。儘管如此，我們在低端市場、跨國公司和人力資源外包業務中繼續看到強勁的預訂業績，並且對我們的產品定位、成交率和整體銷售策略感到非常滿意。鑑於上述原因，儘管本季成長低於預期，我們仍維持 2019 財年 ES 新業務預訂量成長 6% 至 8% 的預測。

Now I would like to expand on my earlier comments regarding the progress of our transformation initiatives and then touch on some strategic and operational business highlights.

現在我想進一步闡述我之前關於我們轉型計劃進展的評論，然後談談一些策略和營運方面的業務亮點。

First, looking internally, as we discussed at our June 2018 investor day, we have launched a number of initiatives across the organization with the objective of enhancing both our operating efficiency and our go-to-market strategy. As you can see from this quarter's results, our efforts to streamline our operations, while also enhancing the client experience, are paying off. We are clearly seeing the benefits of these transformation efforts help our overall margin performance.

首先，從內部來看，正如我們在 2018 年 6 月的投資者日上所討論的那樣，我們已經在整個組織內啟動了多項舉措，旨在提高我們的營運效率和市場進入策略。從本季的業績可以看出，我們為簡化營運流程、提升客戶體驗所做的努力正在發揮成效。我們清楚地看到，這些轉型舉措對我們的整體利潤率表現起到了積極作用。

In addition, we feel good about the progress we are making, as we transform our service, and we continue to see broad-based positive trends in our client satisfaction scores, which, for some of our businesses, are now at record high levels. I am pleased with what we have achieved to date and with our ability to remain on track as we tackle various competing demands. I am especially proud of how our associates are helping us manage through these change initiatives in a thoughtful and careful way.

此外，我們對自身在服務轉型過程中所取得的進展感到滿意，並且我們持續看到客戶滿意度評分出現廣泛的正面趨勢，其中一些業務的評分目前已達到歷史最高水準。我對我們迄今為止所取得的成就感到滿意，也對我們能夠在應對各種相互衝突的需求時保持正軌的能力感到滿意。我尤其為我們的同事們能夠以深思熟慮的方式幫助我們管理這些變革舉措而感到自豪。

Now moving on to an area of key strategic differentiation, our leading data, analytics and benchmarking solutions, ADP DataCloud. As the world of work evolves and companies and their employees increasingly demand greater access to timely and insightful data, we believe that ADP is well positioned to leverage our broad-based HCM data set to further empower our clients' frontline, managers and key decision makers. With these capabilities in mind, we recently expanded the use of ADP DataCloud to deepen our relationship with key distribution channel partners. One example of this is through our current CPA-centric data product, Accountant Connect, which gives CPAs the ability to see their clients' payroll reports, tax forms and notifications, while also providing them with essential practice management tools, all in one place.

現在，讓我們來看看我們具有關鍵策略差異化的領域——我們領先的數據、分析和基準測試解決方案 ADP DataCloud。隨著工作世界的演變，企業及其員工越來越需要及時、有洞察力的數據，我們相信 ADP 憑藉其廣泛的 HCM 數據集，能夠更好地賦予客戶的第一線員工、管理人員和關鍵決策者。考慮到這些能力，我們最近擴大了 ADP DataCloud 的使用範圍，以加深我們與主要分銷通路合作夥伴的關係。例如，我們目前以註冊會計師為中心的資料產品 Accountant Connect，讓註冊會計師能夠在一個地方查看客戶的薪資報告、稅務表格和通知，同時也為他們提供必要的實務管理工具。

We're always looking for new ways to leverage the strength of our data and the breadth of our HCM services to generate additional opportunities for growth. And at the beginning of November, we announced an exciting new partnership with Intuit, which now further strengthens the services we offer to accountants. Through this initiative, we have expanded our integration with QuickBooks, adding an enhanced general ledger interface that maps directly through Accountant Connect. This new cloud-based interface combines the financial and transactional capabilities of QuickBooks with a deep data pool available through ADP's DataCloud and will help accountants save time, while also providing access to award-winning compensation insights to help improve their clients' business as we head into tax season. We are proud to be able to provide products and insights like these to our clients to further empower them.

我們一直在尋找新的方法，利用我們強大的數據和廣泛的人力資本管理服務，創造更多的成長機會。11月初，我們宣布與Intuit建立令人興奮的新合作關係，這將進一步加強我們為會計師提供的服務。透過這項舉措，我們擴展了與 QuickBooks 的集成，增加了一個增強的總帳介面，該介面可直接透過 Accountant Connect 進行對應。這個全新的雲端介面將 QuickBooks 的財務和交易功能與 ADP DataCloud 提供的龐大數據池相結合，將幫助會計師節省時間，同時還能提供屢獲殊榮的薪酬洞察，以幫助客戶在即將到來的報稅季改善業務。我們很自豪能夠為客戶提供此類產品和見解，從而進一步增強他們的能力。

Last week, we were equally proud to be selected as one of Fortune Magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for the 13th consecutive year. I am pleased that our efforts have been consistently recognized, especially as we make steady progress on our transformation, amidst a dynamic business environment. It is an honor to, once again, be among the most admired companies in the world. This is a testament to the commitment of our associates, clients and partners to drive innovation as we work together to change the world of work. Overall, we are pleased with our progress and remain confident in our long-term strategy as we continue our efforts to deliver on our transformation initiatives.

上週，我們同樣感到自豪的是，我們連續第 13 年被《財星》雜誌評選為全球最受尊敬的公司之一。我很高興我們的努力一直得到認可，尤其是在瞬息萬變的商業環境中，我們穩步推進轉型。能夠再次躋身全球最受尊敬的公司之列，我深感榮幸。這證明了我們的員工、客戶和合作夥伴致力於推動創新，共同改變工作世界。總體而言，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，並對我們的長期策略充滿信心，我們將繼續努力實現我們的轉型計劃。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jan for his commentary on the second quarter results and fiscal 2019 outlook.

接下來，我將把電話交給 Jan，請他對第二季業績和 2019 財年展望進行評論。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning, everyone. Our consolidated revenue this quarter was $3.5 billion, up 8% on a reported and organic constant currency basis. And as Carlos said, this was slightly ahead of our own expectations.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，大家早安。本季我們的合併收入為 35 億美元，按報告和自然成長（以固定匯率計算）計算成長 8%。正如卡洛斯所說，這比我們預想的還要好。

This quarter, we continue to experience the incremental benefit from the sales momentum we generated last year as well as the steady improvement in the performance of our PEO. The PEO results were particularly strong in part due to better contribution from benefits, workers' compensation and SUI revenue than we anticipated, but there was also an unrelated pull forward in SUI revenue from the third quarter, which I will discuss in more detail in a few moments.

本季度，我們持續享受去年銷售動能帶來的持續收益，以及我們 PEO 業務績效的穩定提升。PEO 的業績表現特別強勁，部分原因是福利、工傷賠償和 SUI 收入的貢獻比我們預期的要好，但第三季度 SUI 收入的提前確認也與此無關，我稍後會詳細討論這一點。

Our earnings before income taxes and adjusted EBIT both increased 26%. Adjusted EBIT margin was up about 320 basis points compared to last year's second quarter and included 30 basis points of pressure from acquisitions. This margin improvement was ahead of our expectation and benefited from a few key drivers. In addition to the solid performance from our revenue growth and operating leverage, this quarter, we also benefited slightly from lower growth in our distribution expenses as a result of lower-than-expected second quarter new business bookings performance. With that said, we also continue to benefit from the execution on efficiencies efforts within our IT infrastructure and to our broader transformation initiatives, including our voluntary early retirement program.

我們的稅前利潤和調整後 EBIT 均成長了 26%。經調整後的息稅前利潤率比去年第二季增加了約 320 個基點，其中包括收購帶來的 30 個基點的壓力。這項利潤率的提升超出了我們的預期，並且得益於幾個關鍵因素。除了營收成長和營運槓桿的穩健表現外，本季我們還受益於分銷費用成長放緩，這是由於第二季新業務預訂量低於預期。也就是說，我們也持續受益於IT基礎設施效率提升工作的執行以及更廣泛的轉型計劃，包括我們的自願提早退休計劃。

As we mentioned last quarter, we have continued to benefit from a slower ramp in our backfill hiring related to the voluntary early retirement program, and we expect some of the benefit to moderate over the back half of the year. As a result, while we continue to estimate a run rate of about $150 million in savings from this program, we now anticipate achieving slightly more than our original estimates of $100 million of benefit in fiscal year 2019.

正如我們上個季度提到的，由於自願提前退休計劃，我們的人員補充招聘速度放緩，我們繼續從中受益，我們預計下半年這種益處會減弱。因此，儘管我們仍然估計該計劃每年可節省約 1.5 億美元，但我們現在預計在 2019 財年實現的收益將略高於我們最初估計的 1 億美元。

As Carlos mentioned, we're executing on a number of different initiatives, and the timing of cost or benefit can move around from quarter-to-quarter. And as a reminder, as we proceed and refine our plans, the impact of some of these initiatives may overlap. But ultimately, our focus remains to deliver against the multiyear commitments we laid out at our June 2018 investor day.

正如卡洛斯所提到的，我們正在執行許多不同的計劃，成本或收益的時間可能會因季度而異。再次提醒大家，隨著我們推進和完善計劃，其中一些舉措的影響可能會重疊。但歸根結底，我們的重點仍然是履行我們在 2018 年 6 月投資者日上提出的多年承諾。

Our adjusted effective tax rate was 24.6% and included a small benefit from the unplanned stock compensation tax benefits. This tax rate compares to our 25.6% adjusted effective tax rate for the second quarter of last year.

我們調整後的實際稅率為 24.6%，其中包括來自計劃外股票補償稅收優惠的一小部分收益。這一稅率與我們去年第二季調整後的實際稅率 25.6% 相比。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 30% to $1.34 and, in addition to benefiting from our strong revenue and margin performance and our lower tax rate, was also supported by fewer shares outstanding compared with the year ago.

經調整後的稀釋每股收益成長了 30%，達到 1.34 美元。除了受益於我們強勁的收入和利潤率表現以及較低的稅率外，與去年同期相比，流通股數量減少也對此起到了支撐作用。

Now for our segment results. For Employer Services, revenues grew 7% for the quarter, 7% organic constant currency, and we were ahead of expectations. Retention is improving in line with expectations, and we continue to see the benefits from last year's stronger-than-expected new business bookings, each contributing to our stronger-than-expected revenue performance this quarter.

現在公佈各細分市場的結果。雇主服務業務本季營收成長 7%，以固定匯率計算的有機成長為 7%，超出預期。客戶留存率正按預期改善，我們繼續受益於去年超出預期的新業務預訂量，這些因素共同促成了我們本季超出預期的營收表現。

Our revenue growth in our international businesses, which we now disclose quarterly in our Form 10-Q, was also strong this quarter and was aided by a solid double-digit growth in our multinational offerings, which continue to do very well.

我們在國際業務方面的營收成長在本季度也十分強勁，我們現在會在 10-Q 表格中按季度揭露此數據。這得益於我們跨國產品業務的穩健兩位數成長，這些產品業務持續表現良好。

Interest income on client funds grew 21% and benefited from a 30 basis point improvement in the average yield earned on our client fund investments and the growth in average client fund balances of 5% compared to a year ago. This growth in balances was driven by a combination of client growth, wage inflation and growth in our pays per control, offset by pressure from corporate tax reform and lower state unemployment insurance collections. As a reminder, we had some pressure in our client fund balance growth related to the corporate tax reform that we now fully lapped, but other sources of pressure, like SUI rate changes and FX, will put added pressure on our balance growth for the reminder (sic) [remainder] of the year. Our same store pays per control metric in the U.S. grew 2.3% for the quarter.

客戶資金的利息收入增加了 21%，這得益於客戶資金投資平均收益率提高了 30 個基點，以及客戶資金平均餘額比一年前增加了 5%。餘額的成長是由客戶成長、薪資上漲和我們每筆交易收益成長共同推動的，但被企業稅制改革和州失業保險金減少帶來的壓力所抵消。提醒一下，由於企業稅制改革，我們的客戶資金餘額增長曾面臨一些壓力，我們現在已經完全克服了這些壓力，但其他壓力來源，如州保險費率變化和外匯波動，將在今年剩餘時間內給我們的餘額增長帶來額外的壓力。本季度，我們在美國同店每控制指標的支出成長了 2.3%。

Moving on to Employer Services margin, we saw an increase of about 460 basis points in the quarter, which include approximately 50 basis points of pressure from the impact of acquisitions. This very strong performance is a result of the same factors I mentioned earlier regarding our consolidated results, including operating leverage across all of our businesses, efficiencies in our IT infrastructure; slower growth in our selling expenses; and the impact of our transformation initiatives, which continue to help in improving our underlining (sic) [underlying] efficiency.

接下來來看雇主服務利潤率，本季成長了約 460 個基點，其中包括收購帶來的約 50 個基點的壓力。這一強勁的業績得益於我之前提到的關於我們合併業績的相同因素，包括我們所有業務的經營槓桿作用、IT 基礎設施的效率提升、銷售費用增長放緩以及轉型舉措的影響，這些舉措持續幫助我們提高基本效率。

Our PEO revenues grew 12% in the quarter. And PEO revenues, excluding 0 margin benefits pass-throughs, grew 15%, both above our expectations.

本季我們的PEO營收成長了12%。不計入利潤率為 0 的福利轉嫁，PEO 收入成長了 15%，均超出我們的預期。

Average worksite employees increased 9% to 545,000. We were pleased to see continued solid performance on our worksite employee growth, in particular with some signs of normalization and the retention compared to the pressure that we have seen last year among our larger PEO clients. For revenue, the outperformance was attributable to 2 factors. First, we saw favorability in benefits, workers' compensation and SUI revenue relative to our expectations, which is not unusual, and it's part of our normal variability. Second, as I mentioned earlier, there was a pull forward in a portion of our SUI revenue this quarter, which benefited our total PEO revenue growth rate by about 200 basis points. And this will, therefore, come out of next quarter's PEO growth, yielding no net impact for the full year.

工作場所平均員工人數增加了 9%，達到 545,000 人。我們很高興看到我們的工作場所員工成長持續穩健，尤其是一些跡象表明情況正在好轉，而且與去年我們大型 PEO 客戶所面臨的壓力相比，員工留任率也有所提高。營收的優異表現可歸因於兩個因素。首先，我們看到福利、工傷賠償和州失業保險收入相對於我們的預期而言是有利的，這並不罕見，也是我們正常波動的一部分。其次，正如我之前提到的，本季我們部分 SUI 收入提前實現，這使我們的 PEO 總收入成長率提高了約 200 個基點。因此，這將從下一季的 PEO 成長中扣除，對全年不會產生淨影響。

The PEO segment's margin increased 70 basis points for the quarter and benefited from operating leverage and selling efficiencies, partially offset by the grow-over pressure from adjustments to our loss reserve estimates related to ADP indemnity.

PEO 業務部門的利潤率在本季度增長了 70 個基點，受益於營運槓桿和銷售效率的提高，但部分被與 ADP 賠償相關的損失準備金估計調整帶來的成長壓力所抵消。

Now onto our fiscal year 2019 outlook. For Employer Services, we are increasing our revenue guidance to 5% to 6% from our previous guidance of 4% to 6%. With 2 quarters now coming in ahead of expectations, we feel better about our position for the year, but we continue to anticipate the deceleration in the back half, driven in part by a combination of the impacts of this new quarter's new business bookings performance, incremental pressure from FX and the lapping of certain acquisitions. We continue to anticipate growth of 2.5% in our pays per control metric.

接下來，我們展望一下2019財年。對於雇主服務，我們將收入預期從先前的 4% 至 6% 上調至 5% 至 6%。兩個季度業績都超出預期，我們對今年的情況感到更加樂觀，但我們仍然預計下半年增速將放緩，部分原因是本季度新業務預訂業績的影響、外匯帶來的額外壓力以及某些收購的到期。我們繼續預期每一個控制權支付指標將成長 2.5%。

Finally, due to our margin outperformance this quarter, we are raising our ES margin outlook and now anticipate full year ES margins to expand 175 to 200 basis points from our prior forecast of 150 to 175 basis points. Our outlook also continues to contemplate 50 basis points from acquisition drag of the year -- for the year.

最後，由於本季利潤率表現優異，我們提高了 ES 利潤率預期，目前預計全年 ES 利潤率將從先前的 150 至 175 個基點增長 175 至 200 個基點。我們的展望也繼續考慮到今年收購帶來的拖累將達到 50 個基點——全年如此。

Moving onto the PEO. We now expect 9% to 10% PEO revenue growth in fiscal year 2019 compared to our prior forecast of 8% to 9%, and we continue to expect 8% to 9% growth in average worksite employees. We now anticipate 8% to 9% growth in PEO revenues, excluding 0 margin benefit pass-throughs as we have been realizing better workers' compensation and SUI revenues relative to our prior expectations.

接下來是PEO。我們現在預計 2019 財年 PEO 營收將成長 9% 至 10%，高於我們先前預測的 8% 至 9%，我們繼續預期平均工作場所員工人數將成長 8% 至 9%。我們現在預計 PEO 收入將成長 8% 至 9%，不包括 0 利潤率的福利轉嫁，因為我們獲得的工傷賠償和 SUI 收入比我們之前的預期要好。

For our PEO margins, with better-than-expected performance in our PEO margin this quarter, we now expect margins to be at least flat compared to our prior forecasted decrease of down 50 to 25 basis points and, meanwhile, continue to anticipate grow-over pressure from adjustments to our loss reserve estimates related to ADP Indemnity to result in 50 basis points of grow-over pressure on a full year basis, unchanged from our prior forecast.

對於我們的 PEO 利潤率，由於本季度 PEO 利潤率表現好於預期，我們現在預計利潤率至少會與我們之前預測的下降 50 至 25 個基點持平，同時，我們繼續預計，由於與 ADP Indemnity 相關的損失準備金估計調整，全年增長壓力將達到 50 個基點，與我們之前的預測相同。

Moving on to the consolidated outlook. We continue to anticipate total revenue growth of 6% to 7% for fiscal year 2019. We now expect the growth in average line fund balances to be about 4% compared to our prior forecast of up 3% to 4%. And we continue to expect growth in our client fund interest revenue of $90 million to $100 million and for the total impact from the client funds extended investment strategy to be an increase of $70 million to $80 million. The details of this forecast can be found in the supplemental slides on our Investor Relations website.

接下來是綜合展望。我們繼續預期 2019 財年總營收將成長 6% 至 7%。我們現在預計平均定期存款餘額的成長約為 4%，而我們先前的預測為成長 3% 至 4%。我們繼續預期客戶基金利息收入將成長 9,000 萬美元至 1 億美元，客戶基金擴展投資策略的總影響將增加 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元。此預測的詳細內容可在我們投資者關係網站的補充幻燈片中找到。

We now anticipate our adjusted EBIT margin to expand 125 to 150 basis points compared to our prior forecast of 100 to 125 basis points, driven by the strong execution that we have seen so far this year. This outlook continues to include approximately 30 basis points of pressure from acquisitions.

我們現在預計，由於今年迄今為止我們取得了強勁的業績，調整後的息稅前利潤率將比之前預測的 100 至 125 個基點有所提高 125 至 150 個基點。這項展望仍包含來自收購的約 30 個基點的壓力。

With that said, as you can see, our guidance implies a slower pace of margin expansion in the latter half of fiscal year 2019, as we continue to expect lower top line revenue growth, while we're, at the same time, maintaining our investments into the business and continue to catch up on our backfill hiring plans related to our voluntary early retirement program.

綜上所述，正如您所看到的，我們的預期表明，2019 財年下半年利潤率擴張速度將放緩，因為我們繼續預期營收成長放緩，與此同時，我們將繼續對業務進行投資，並繼續推進與自願提前退休計劃相關的人員補充招聘計劃。

With the impact of the first-half stock compensation related tax benefit, we are tweaking our adjusted effective tax rate expectation to 24.4% in fiscal year 2019 as compared to our prior estimate of 24.5%. And with these adjustments to our outlook, we now expect adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow 17% to 19% from our prior forecast of 15% to 17%.

受上半年股票補償相關稅收優惠的影響，我們將 2019 財年的調整後實際稅率預期從先前的 24.5% 調整為 24.4%。經過這些調整，我們現在預計調整後的稀釋每股盈餘將從先前的 15% 至 17% 成長 17% 至 19%。

We continue to please -- be pleased with our overall execution. And with that, I will return it back to the operator to take your questions.

我們將繼續努力，讓大家對我們的整體表現感到滿意。接下來，我會把麥克風交還給接線員，讓他回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit about what you think is the sustainability of the margin improvement that you've seen, particularly in light of the catch-up, not for the remainder of this year, but just as we think a little bit beyond this year. That's the first question. And then the second question would just be you're seeing an improvement with regards to your retention rate. Can you talk about how much of that do you think is due to the service center consolidation versus maybe leveraging some of the enhanced assets that you have, such as the data cloud?

我想請您談談您認為目前利潤率提升的可持續性，尤其是在追趕情況的情況下，不是指今年剩餘時間，而是展望一下今年以後的情況。這是第一個問題。那麼第二個問題就是，你們的客戶留存率是否有提高。您認為其中有多少是由於服務中心整合，又有多少是因為利用了您擁有的一些增強資產，例如資料雲？

Thank you for the question. I think on the sustainability front, I think that, just to kind of refer you back to Jan's comments about remaining committed to the commitments we made at our 2018 investor day where I think we laid out multiyear, I think, commitments around margin expansion, so I'd refer you back to that because it's, again, we want to kind of stick to the -- we normally do things here, which we provide guidance one year at a time. But I think that will give you some sense of, I think, our expectations of what the business is capable of doing over multiple years.

謝謝你的提問。我認為在永續發展方面，我想再次提及 Jan 的評論，即我們將繼續致力於在 2018 年投資者日上做出的承諾，當時我們制定了多年期的利潤率擴張承諾，所以我建議大家回顧一下，因為我們想再次堅持我們通常的做法，即每年提供一次指導。但我認為這將讓您對公司未來幾年的發展潛力有所了解。

You did, Carlos. It's just you're outperforming this year and so I didn't know if that outperformance this year would thereby potentially impact kind of a cadence on a go-forward basis, if that makes sense.

你做到了，卡洛斯。只是你今年的表現格外出色，所以我不知道今年的出色表現是否會對未來的節奏產生潛在影響，如果我的意思表達清楚的話。

Well, I appreciate that. So let me again go back to maybe some of the things that Jan was, I think, talking about in his comments that are important. Probably, a good thing for us to talk about on the call today, we are committed to the -- I guess, the outcomes that we talked about in June of 2018, but we're also committed to doing it in a thoughtful and careful manner, which is the way I described it in my comments around this "transformation effort" that we are undergoing here. What that means is that, as an example, in the case of the Service Alignment Initiative or the voluntary early retirement, these are fairly large projects that affect a lot of people and a lot of parts of the business. And frankly, we're -- in both cases, we're doing these things for the first time. And so we have plans and we have contingency plans and we have plans on top of the plans, and then what we do is we react to then the circumstances. And I think what's happened here, as Jan described, is it worked out great on a spreadsheet that we were going to backfill a certain percentage of the people who were in voluntary early retirement. And I just want to point out that we -- even though it was good for our associates and it was good for the company, we did lose a lot of knowledge and experience as a result of this voluntary early retirement. And it was important to plan carefully around that and to make sure that we continue to execute around client service and the other things that are important to maintain retention in other parts of the business. So it's not just about cost cutting. It's about strengthening the business. And what that means is that sometimes you get that a little bit -- it's not perfect -- the perfect science in terms of the spreadsheets. And I think we really got a lot of benefit in the first and second quarter that we didn't anticipate, so we're just trying to be transparent here in the sense that I'm very committed to making sure that besides achieving the cost reduction goals, which we clearly have, that we also continue to achieve the client service, the associate satisfaction and the retention goals that we also have that are incredibly important to the sustainability, back to your sustainability point. So I can probably go on a lot of other details on things that helped us in the quarter. But I think I would just have us -- I would bring us back to kind of our longer-term commitments and I think our public commitments around the 2018 investor day. And as excited as we are about the quarter, I don't think that it fundamentally changes. It was hard enough to be excited. I mean, it was a great quarter. We've clearly done incredible -- made incredible progress at our cost structure, while still improving our client satisfaction scores, while still improving retention. There's a lot to like in the quarter. But we're here to try to build a long-term sustainable, successful business and that means that we have to do it in a thoughtful and careful manner. One of the things that I've been very worried about is making sure that we are backfilling in an appropriate rate to maintain those client satisfaction scores.

嗯，我很感激。那麼，讓我再回到 Jan 在他的評論中提到的一些重要的事情。或許，今天在電話會議上我們應該好好談談，我們致力於實現——我想，就是我們在 2018 年 6 月討論過的成果，但我們也致力於以深思熟慮和謹慎的方式來實現它，正如我在談到我們正在進行的“轉型努力”時所描述的那樣。這意味著，例如，服務調整計劃或自願提前退休都是相當大的項目，會影響許多人和企業的許多方面。坦白說，在這兩種情況下，我們都是第一次做這些事。因此，我們有計劃，有應急計劃，還有計劃之外的額外計劃，然後我們根據實際情況做出反應。我認為這裡發生的情況，正如 Jan 所描述的那樣，我們在電子表格中很好地實現了我們原本計劃填補的自願提前退休人員的一定比例的空缺。我只想指出，雖然這對我們的同事和公司都有好處，但由於這種自願提前退休，我們也失去了許多知識和經驗。因此，圍繞這一點進行周密的規劃非常重要，並且確保我們繼續圍繞客戶服務和其他對維持業務其他部分客戶留存率至關重要的事情開展工作。所以這不僅僅是削減成本的問題。這是為了增強企業實力。這意味著，有時你會得到一點點——它並不完美——電子表格意義上的完美科學。我認為我們在第一季度和第二季度確實獲得了許多意想不到的好處，所以我們想在這裡保持透明，因為我非常致力於確保除了實現我們已經實現的成本削減目標之外，我們還要繼續實現客戶服務、員工滿意度和員工留存目標，這些目標對於可持續發展也至關重要，回到您提到的可持續發展問題。所以，我可能也可以詳細介紹一下本季對我們有幫助的其他事項。但我認為，我只想讓我們——我想讓我們回到我們更長期的承諾，以及我們在 2018 年投資者日上所做的公開承諾。儘管我們對本季充滿期待，但我認為它不會發生根本性的改變。很難感到興奮。我的意思是，這季度表現很棒。我們顯然取得了令人矚目的成就——在成本結構方面取得了巨大的進步，同時客戶滿意度評分和客戶留存率也在不斷提高。這個區域有很多值得稱道的地方。但我們來到這裡是為了努力打造一個長期可持續發展的成功企業，這意味著我們必須以深思熟慮和謹慎的方式來做這件事。我一直非常擔心的一件事是，如何確保我們以適當的速度填補空缺，以維持客戶滿意度分數。

And maybe Mark, I take the retention question. I would point you to 2 things. So some of our broader product portfolio helps us, data cloud certainly, and attachments to that adding value to our clients. But the 2 most important points that I can see is: a, the client satisfaction and client service scores really developed nicely. And we see a strong correlation between client satisfaction, net promoter scores and retention. So service has been really stable and improving over time. And it's a very broad-based improvement in our NPS scores in the business. And secondly, maybe a little bit more detail. As you know, we finished and finalized the upgrading of our major account client base, which had put pressure in -- on to our retention rates. And now with our clients being on the current...

或許馬克，我會回答留任率的問題。我想指出兩點。因此，我們更廣泛的產品組合中的一些產品，例如資料雲及其相關附件，可以幫助我們為客戶創造價值。但我認為最重要的兩點是：a，客戶滿意度和客戶服務評分都取得了非常好的進步。我們發現客戶滿意度、淨推薦值和客戶留存率之間有強烈的相關性。所以服務一直非常穩定，並且隨著時間的推移還在不斷改進。而且，我們公司整體的 NPS 分數也得到了非常廣泛的提升。其次，或許可以再多一些細節。如您所知，我們已經完成了主要客戶群的升級，這給我們的客戶留存率帶來了壓力。現在，我們的客戶正在使用…

Workforce Now.

立即行動。

Workforce Now, we have seen really, for many quarters, now steady improvements in the retention rates as we grow over the impact of that migration effort. Those are probably the 2 most important factors that have driven the good retention this year -- this quarter.

現在，我們已經看到，隨著我們逐步克服遷移工作的影響，員工留任率在多個季度以來穩步提高。這可能是今年（本季）客戶留存率較高的兩個最重要因素。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

I just want to clarify the margin, again, if you don't mind. How much of the raise was due to the transformation initiative, the retirement savings coming sooner than expected or just finding more savings than originally expected? Maybe can you go through those numbers, again, Jan?

如果您不介意的話，我想再次澄清一下邊距的問題。此次加薪有多少是由於轉型計劃，有多少是由於退休儲蓄比預期提前到賬，又有多少是由於儲蓄比原先預期更多？Jan，你能再檢查一下那些數字嗎？

Yes. It’s a little bit hard to completely decompose every source of margin expansion because the fundamental source of our productivity is growing our labor force slower than revenues. And so we have a number of factors and initiatives that drive towards that. We had an early retirement program that helped. And we have also, for example, an IT infrastructure fundamental reorganization that improved the processes. We have reduced call volumes. The transformation office has really a myriad of initiatives that all really aim for the same thing, driving labor productivity, if you want, because that's our business model. We're highly labor and we're not capital-intensive, and so we're focusing on our big cost block of labor productivity. And so that's number one. So these initiatives are -- it's really academic to isolate them because it -- they overlap in the thinking. And number two, is we did see in the second quarter, and I think we tried to indicate that in the first quarter also, that catch-up on the refill has been a little bit slower, and that's not because we wanted it to be slower, but it is -- it has -- but just happened that way in the execution, which benefited the margin. But it's really not where we wanted the business to come out. So I think, in my comments, I said we are estimating the full range of [VERP] impact to be still $150 million on a run rate basis. But split the middle here kind of, let's say, it's maybe $120 million this year of impact of VERP if that's helpful.

是的。要完全分解利潤率擴張的每個來源有點困難，因為我們生產力的根本來源是勞動力成長速度慢於收入成長速度。因此，我們有許多因素和措施都在推動這一目標的實現。我們當時有一個提前退休計劃，這對我們很有幫助。例如，我們也對 IT 基礎架構進行了根本性的重組，從而改善了流程。我們減少了通話量。轉型辦公室其實有很多舉措，但所有這些舉措的目標都是一樣的，那就是提高勞動生產力，因為這就是我們的商業模式。我們是勞力密集產業，不是資本密集產業，所以我們專注於提高勞動生產力，這是我們最大的成本支出。這是第一點。所以這些舉措——將它們孤立出來其實是學術性的，因為它們的想法是重疊的。第二點，我們在第二季度確實看到了這一點，而且我認為我們在第一季度也試圖表明，補貨速度稍微慢了一些，這並不是因為我們想讓它慢下來，而是——它確實慢了下來——但這在執行過程中恰好發生了，這有利於利潤率。但這並非我們希望公司發展到的最終結果。所以我覺得，我在評論中說過，我們估計 [VERP] 的全部影響按運行率計算仍然為 1.5 億美元。但我們可以取個中間值，比如說，如果這有幫助的話，VERP 今年的影響可能是 1.2 億美元。

Versus the $100 million before. Okay, okay. And then just a quick follow-up on the bookings side. Understood that there was a little bit of slippage. Have those deals since closed? And that -- is that what's giving you confidence that you can still deliver the 6% to 8% because we all know that the comps have been tough, and you've been clear about that? So just trying to better understand your confidence there.

與之前的1億美元相比。好的，好的。最後，再簡單跟進一下預訂方面的狀況。了解到其中存在一些小失誤。這些交易都已經完成了嗎？而這——是不是因為你確信自己還能達到 6% 到 8% 的成長，因為我們都知道同期業績比較艱難，而你也明確表示過這一點？我只是想更了解你在這方面的自信之處。

So I think that we do have some visibility, obviously, into what's happening in January here. And I think that one of the things that I mentioned in my comments was the calendar. And it's a little -- it's not -- it's a little embarrassing because we did have a little bit of a miss in our planning process of some changes in the calendar that move the number of selling days from year-over-year. So as an example, last year, the way the calendar fell, we had a number of days around the holidays that were -- that this year we didn't have in terms of ability to sell. And so I think that gives us some comfort that we had some movement from one quarter to the other because we do have some visibility into the January results. So I think some of it is pure calendar. But again, at the risk of -- we don't want to be the company that talks about weather causing issues, analysis and a weather issue, but calendars are also something that you have to be careful. It's a slippery slope of always blaming the calendar. And we typically wouldn't even bring it up, but it was pretty clear, as we laid out, started looking after the quarter ended at the calendar that we had an issue from a planning standpoint. And we didn't anticipate that. And hence, we didn't communicate it since to our -- because -- since we didn't know -- we didn't figure it out, we didn't communicate it externally.

所以我覺得，顯然我們對一月這裡發生的事情有一定的了解。我覺得我在評論中提到的其中一點就是日曆。這有點——不，有點尷尬，因為我們在計劃過程中確實犯了一些錯誤，導致日曆上的一些變化影響了每年的銷售天數。舉例來說，去年由於日曆的安排，我們在假日期間有很多天可以進行銷售——而今年我們沒有這樣的銷售機會。所以我認為這讓我們感到欣慰，因為我們對一月份的業績有一定的了解，所以從一個季度到另一個季度出現了一些變化。所以我認為其中一部分純粹是日曆因素造成的。但再次強調，我們不想成為一家總是談論天氣造成問題、分析天氣問題以及天氣狀況的公司，但日曆也是需要謹慎對待的事情。總是把責任推給日曆，這是一種危險的趨勢。我們通常甚至不會提起這件事，但很明顯，正如我們制定的計劃，在季度結束後開始查看日曆時，我們發現從計劃的角度來看，我們存在問題。我們對此毫無預料。因此，我們沒有對外傳達這件事，因為——因為我們不知道——我們沒有弄清楚，所以我們沒有對外傳達。

And our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

So just to be clear, the implication is that on the bookings side, the deceleration this quarter was really more due to the calendar and to timing. So should we anticipate next quarter kind of a snap back to a healthier level?

所以說清楚一點，這意味著本季預訂量的放緩更多是由於日曆和時間表造成的。那麼我們是否應該預期下個季度經濟會迅速恢復到更健康的水平？

Well, that's a good follow-up question, which I can't answer because we only have one month done. And so I was trying to give as much color without breaking our protocol of -- we provide guidance once a year. We don't provide quarterly guidance. And we really don't talk about the quarter that we're in the middle of now. So I think I will just refer you back to our confirmation of our 6% to 8% guidance for ES new business bookings, which, I think, gives you some sense that we anticipate that the third quarter will have some bounce back because that's just mathematical and not providing any change in guidance. But I also would caution you that February and March are still in front of us.

嗯，這是一個很好的後續問題，但我無法回答，因為我們只完成了一個月的工作。因此，我試圖在不違反我們每年提供一次指導的規程的前提下，盡可能地增添色彩。我們不提供季度業績指引。我們根本不談論我們現在所處的這個季度。所以，我想我只需再次確認我們對 ES 新業務預訂量 6% 至 8% 的預期即可，我認為這足以讓你們明白，我們預計第三季度會有所反彈，因為這只是數學上的預測，並不代表對預期有任何改變。但我還要提醒各位，二月和三月還在未來。

Fair enough, fair enough. I wanted to ask also about the early retirement program and the backfill hiring. Could you give us any incremental kind of color or commentary on whether the early retirement -- the folks who opted in for early retirement, were they localized in any particular part of the organization? Is there any -- is the slowdown in the backfill hiring related to the fact that there were certain skills maybe that left the organization that are sort of more difficult to bring back in? Or is it just -- was it broad-based? Any additional color there would be helpful.

說得對，說得對。我還想詢問一下提前退休計畫和人員補充招募的情況。您能否提供一些更詳細的資訊或評論，說明選擇提前退休的人員是否集中在組織的某個特定部門？招募人員填補空缺的速度放緩是否與某些技能人才的流失有關，而這些人才可能更難重新引進？或者說——它是否具有廣泛的影響力？如果能添加一些其他顏色就更好了。

It's a great -- good question. I think one of the challenges from a planning standpoint on a voluntary early retirement program, which, for the record, is the first time ADP does it. So not making excuses, but we don't have a ton of experience in terms of -- we try to talk to experts and other folks to help us anticipate what the take rate would be and what areas and so forth. But there's certain amount of uncertainty just because it's "voluntary." And so it was impossible for us to predict exactly where it was going to end up happening. I would tell you that it was as you could -- would expect. It was broad-based since it is voluntary early retirement program. And our associate, tenured and experienced, tends to be spread across the entire organization. So I think it was -- there may have been 1 or 2 places where there was a little bit -- more higher percentage than in other areas in terms of the take rate. But I think, in general, it was broad-based geographically and broad-based by function and by business unit with a slight variability within. And so the real issue here has been our inability to predict how quickly we would be able to backfill those positions. There's no other kind of problem or underlying issue other than we've never done this before. And we anticipate it and put in the plan and communicate it in our guidance a certain pace, and we've not been able to achieve that pace. And I think the final comment I'll make on that is that it feels to me like that has been strictly a question of execution on the hiring itself. But as Jan said, some of it could be -- since there's no scientific way to parse all of these different factors, the business has been performing very well. Jan mentioned that we have had reductions in call volumes. We have had improved -- we're confirming our guidance on retention, so you can see that we're feeling about the progress around retention. So all of those things, I think, eased the pressure to backfill quickly. So it's probably a combination of the execution on the backfills and the business just performing better. And we just need to wait a couple more quarters to, I think, let that all play out. But our plan currently is to try to catch up, as we mentioned in our comments, on some of that backfill hiring to make sure that we have the right number of implementation people and service people to maintain the high client satisfaction scores.

這是個好問題。我認為從規劃的角度來看，自願提前退休計畫面臨的挑戰之一是，據我所知，這是 ADP 首次實施該計畫。所以，我並不是找藉口，但我們在這方面經驗不多——我們會嘗試與專家和其他人交流，以幫助我們預測接受率以及哪些地區等等。但正因為它是“自願的”，所以存在一定程度的不確定性。因此，我們不可能準確預測它最終會在哪裡發生。我會告訴你，情況正如你所預料的那樣。由於這是一項自願提前退休計劃，因此覆蓋面很廣。而我們資深且經驗豐富的同事往往遍布整個組織。所以我覺得——可能有一兩個地方的接受率比其他地區略高一些。但我認為，總體而言，它在地域上、職能上和業務部門上都具有廣泛的覆蓋面，只是內部略有差異。因此，真正的問題在於我們無法預測我們能夠多快填補這些空缺。除了我們以前從未做過這件事之外，沒有其他類型的問題或根本原因。我們預料到了這一點，並製定了計劃，並在我們的指導方針中以一定的速度進行了溝通，但我們一直未能達到這個速度。最後我想說的是，在我看來，這完全是招募本身執行層面的問題。但正如 Jan 所說，其中一些因素可能是——由於沒有科學的方法來分析所有這些不同的因素，所以這家公司一直表現得非常好。Jan提到我們的通話量有所下降。我們已經取得了一些進步——我們正在確認我們關於留存率的指導方針，所以你可以看出我們對留存率的進展感到滿意。所以我認為，所有這些因素都緩解了迅速填補空缺的壓力。所以這可能是人員補充工作執行到位以及業務表現更佳共同作用的結果。我想，我們只需要再等幾個季度，讓這一切塵埃落定就好了。但正如我們在評論中提到的，我們目前的計劃是努力追趕進度，填補一些空缺職位，以確保我們有足夠數量的實施人員和服務人員，從而保持較高的客戶滿意度。

And our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

I wanted to just ask a quick follow-up question on the bookings from the previous quarter. Clearly, the calendar played a big role. But were you seeing any other implications from whether it be the weakness in the overall -- or I'm sorry, in the stock market or government shutdown in the month of January that was having any impact on bookings activity at all that could be perhaps attributable to something other than the calendar? And then also, as far as -- want to touch on acquisitions and that's obviously been part of ADP's strategy for a while. So just an update on how Celergo acquisition is going, that integration and any surprises that you've seen, either for better or worse.

我想就上一季的預訂情況快速問一個後續問題。顯然，日曆發揮了重要作用。但是，您是否觀察到其他任何影響，例如整體疲軟——或者抱歉，是股市疲軟，或者1月份政府停擺——對預訂活動產生了任何影響，而這種影響可能歸因於日曆以外的其他因素？此外，我還想談談收購，這顯然一直是 ADP 策略的一部分。那麼，就Celergo收購進度、整合情況以及您遇到的任何意外情況（無論是好是壞）做個最新匯報吧。

I'll let Jan talk about the acquisitions. But on the topic of kind of the general environment and the impact on our new business bookings, we usually have some, I guess, anecdotal stories. And I'm sure some people on our sales force will take some exception because they probably heard some noise around uncertainty and government shutdown and so forth. But I think that based on the experience I have, which we haven't been in so many cycles, that I have an infinite amount of experience, but it doesn't feel like there is a major factor, at least, in our business results. And again, I hate to keep going back to our January results because we typically don't talk about our results in a current quarter, but those -- it feels more like a calendar issue than an issue around shutdown or the economy or the stock market. It has to have some impact somewhere, especially on a few larger deals. Larger companies tend to become a little bit more cautious in pulling their horns when they see trouble on the horizon. But you saw our ADP national preliminary report this morning. You see other factors out there that indicate a slowing of growth and a slowing of positive trends, but not anything that smells or feels to us like a major economic slowdown. So I would have to say that we have yet to see anything of the sort that would lead us to believe that there's something happening in the general environment. There have to be at least 1 or 2 large deals where maybe some, in specific industries, a couple of large companies decided to maybe delay a decision or whatnot, but it hasn't gotten into my level. I haven't heard about that yet.

關於收購事宜，就讓 Jan 來談談。但說到整體環境及其對我們新業務預訂的影響，我們通常會有一些，我想，軼事。我相信我們銷售團隊中的一些人會對此表示異議，因為他們可能聽到了一些關於不確定性、政府停擺等等的傳言。但我認為，根據我的經驗（雖然我們經歷的週期不多，但我擁有無限的經驗），至少在我們的業務成果中，這似乎不是一個主要因素。再說一遍，我不想總是提起我們一月份的業績，因為我們通常不會談論當季的業績，但是——這感覺更像是日程安排問題，而不是與停工、經濟或股市有關的問題。它肯定會在某些方面產生影響，尤其是一些較大的交易。規模較大的公司在預見麻煩即將到來時，往往會更謹慎地採取行動。但您今天早上已經看到了我們的ADP全國初步報告。我們看到其他一些因素顯示成長放緩和正面趨勢放緩，但我們並沒有感覺到任何明顯的經濟衰退跡象。所以我覺得，我們還沒有看到任何跡象顯示整體環境正在發生某些變化。肯定至少有一兩筆大交易，在某些特定行業，可能有幾家大公司決定推遲決策之類的，但這還沒有影響到我這個層面。我還沒聽過這件事。

And just as an add-on and a reminder, ADP has really no exposure to servicing the federal government in our services, so we had also 0 impact on the shutdown relative to our services because we don't serve the federal government in any meaningful way. Number two, Celergo, just as a reminder, Celergo was an acquisition that we -- is augmenting our multinational offerings, strengthening what is already a very differentiated service that we have, and it's performing really well. So we had no surprises on the negative side relative to the product and the software. It will become our go-forward platform for all of our services in the streamline business portion of our multinational thing. The pipeline is strong, and we're ahead of our own business case. So we're really pleased with that acquisition.

另外，需要補充說明的是，ADP 的服務實際上並不涉及為聯邦政府提供服務，因此，由於我們並未以任何有意義的方式為聯邦政府提供服務，所以此次政府停擺對我們的服務也沒有任何影響。第二點，Celergo，提醒一下，Celergo 是我們收購的公司，它增強了我們的跨國產品，強化了我們已經非常獨特的服務，而且它的表現非常好。所以，就產品和軟體而言，我們並沒有遇到任何意料之外的負面情況。它將成為我們跨國公司精簡業務部分所有服務的未來發展平台。管道供應充足，我們的進度已經超過了預期。所以我們對這次收購非常滿意。

And our next question comes from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的吉姆·施耐德。

I guess, first of all, not to beat a dead horse on the bookings front, but can you maybe talk about the new business environment and the selling season as it relates to the kind of competitive environment you're seeing, both on the mid-market and upmarket as well as on the down where you've been executing very well? Maybe talk about whether anything is really changing from a competitive or pricing standpoint that maybe affecting any deal closures or whether you still have confidence as related to calendar thing.

首先，我不想在預訂方面老調重彈，但您能否談談新的商業環境和銷售旺季，以及您所看到的競爭環境，包括中端市場、高端市場以及您一直做得很好的低端市場？或許可以談談從競爭或定價的角度來看，是否有任何真正的變化可能會影響交易的達成，或者你仍然對日程安排有信心。

I think the mid-market and the upmarket remain highly competitive, which, I think, we've talked about in prior quarters. But it's no different than it has been in any other quarters. So again, back to beating the dead horse, I think that we feel like there's some other issues that, I think, may have led to the weakness in terms of our bookings because the competitive environment seems to be consistently competitive. I was in Atlanta last week meeting with some salespeople and to try to get some firsthand, again, exposure to the things that we're encountering out in the marketplace in the mid-market, the upmarket. And I also talked to some folks in the downmarket. And I feel -- we feel good about our product lineup. We feel good, as we always have, about our excellent sales force and their ability to execute. And I think we feel -- despite some of the noise in the system, we feel pretty good about where the economy is. So it's hard really to pinpoint anything specific around competition or the economy or anything else to give you any additional color. I wish there was something that we could point to concretely, so that we can then deal with it. But there's really nothing that we see in our way of being able to continue to achieve our objectives.

我認為中端市場和高端市場仍然競爭非常激烈，這一點我們在前幾季也討論過。但這與其他地區的情況並無不同。所以，我又回到了老生常談的問題上，我認為我們感覺還有一些其他問題，我認為這些問題可能導致了我們預訂量的下降，因為競爭環境似乎一直都很激烈。我上週在亞特蘭大與一些銷售人員會面，希望能再次親身了解我們在中端市場和高端市場遇到的情況。我還和一些低端市場的人聊了一下。而且我覺得——我們對我們的產品陣容感到滿意。我們一如既往地對我們優秀的銷售團隊及其執行能力感到滿意。儘管系統中存在一些幹擾因素，但我認為我們對當前的經濟狀況感到相當滿意。所以，很難具體指出競爭、經濟或其他方面有什麼因素可以提供更多細節。我希望我們能找到一些具體的事情來解決問題。但我們目前看不到任何阻礙我們繼續實現目標的因素。

I think maybe a little bit more detail, maybe too much sausage-making here. But number one is you will recall that we, in the last few quarters, strengthened our enterprise segments offering by also now offering Workforce Now into the enterprise space. And that's a strategic move that has played out well and has resulted in a nice new logo growth for the enterprise space. So we're very pleased with that progress that we have been making. And another comment regarding pricing. Actually, I think the more broader discounting and also credits declines, all indicators of the health of the business have been improving in the quarter, I think, largely driven also by an improvement in the service quality that's now starting to resonate in the market and helping also sales. So there's a bunch of positive things, kind of underlining (sic) [underlying] helping a little bit.

我覺得或許應該要多加些細節，這裡可能有點過於繁瑣了。但首先，您應該記得，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們透過將 Workforce Now 也引入企業領域，加強了我們在企業領域的產品和服務。這是一個策略性舉措，而且效果顯著，為企業領域帶來了可觀的新標誌成長。因此，我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。關於定價還有一點要說明。實際上，我認為更廣泛的折扣和信貸減少，所有這些業務健康狀況的指標在本季度都有所改善，我認為這主要也是由於服務品質的提高，而服務品質的提高現在開始在市場上引起共鳴，並有助於銷售。所以有很多正面的方面，某種程度上來說，這起到了一定的幫助作用。

That's helpful. And then, I guess, on the flip side of it. You continue to raise your revenue guidance. And obviously, I'm guessing that a big part of that is better retention, even though you don't disclose it quarterly. But is it fair to say that you would expect, given everything you just said on the call, about client satisfaction that you'd be biased towards the upper end of the retention guidance for the full year?

那很有幫助。然後，我想，從另一方面來說。你們繼續上調營收預期。顯然，我猜測這很大程度上歸功於更高的客戶留存率，儘管你們沒有按季度公佈這一數據。但考慮到您剛才在電話會議上談到的客戶滿意度，是否可以說您會傾向於全年客戶留存率預期的上限？

No. I think -- so you have -- yes, we have a lot of optimism about our business and about the progress, but we really do try to hit it down the fairway in terms of our guidance. We really do have issues around FX in the second half. I mean, we have -- we -- FX could change because we can't predict what rates are going to be at the end of the third quarter. But based on what we know today, we're going to have some FX headwinds. We have some acquisitions that we lapped. And we have specific things that we anticipate will slow our revenue growth a little bit, as we've mentioned in the comments. So we really -- it's hard to get these things all 100% correct, but we give you what we know. And also, sorry, one more -- just because it's a fairly important one, and I think Jan touched on it, and we haven't really gotten a question about it yet, which, by the way, I appreciate because it's complicated, but the PEO did have an unusual -- unusually strong quarter in terms of its growth rate as this -- as a result of this kind of SUI pull-forward, which -- that's real sausage-making and it really flips around in the third quarter, so there's really no change. It's just the timing issue that we pulled some revenues into the second quarter versus the third. It's really an accounting issue, and I wouldn't spend a lot of time on it. But it is important to know that, so that you don't multiply times 4 because that is definitely a very isolated and very identifiable benefit to the second quarter that we do not get in the third or the fourth.

不。我認為——所以你也這麼認為——是的，我們對我們的業務和進展充滿樂觀，但我們確實努力在業績指引方面做到實事求是。下半年FX確實存在一些問題。我的意思是，外匯市場可能會發生變化，因為我們無法預測第三季末的利率走勢。但根據我們目前掌握的信息，外匯市場將面臨一些不利因素。我們有一些收購項目已經超越了競爭對手。正如我們在評論中提到的，我們預計某些具體因素會稍微減緩我們的收入成長。所以，我們真的——要把所有事情都做到100%正確很難，但我們會把我們知道的都告訴你。還有，抱歉，再補充一點——因為這相當重要，而且我認為 Jan 也提到了這一點，但我們還沒有真正收到過相關的問題，順便說一句，我很感激這一點，因為這很複雜，但 PEO 在本季度的增長率確實異常強勁——這是由於這種 SUI 提前發放造成的，這——這真是個棘手的問題，而且完全逆轉了，所以實際上就會沒有什麼變化。只是時間安排上的問題，我們把一些收入計入了第二季而不是第三季。這其實是會計問題，我不會在這上面花太多時間。但重要的是要知道這一點，這樣你就不會乘以 4，因為這絕對是第二季一個非常孤立且非常明顯的收益，而我們在第三季或第四季是無法獲得的。

And our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

So Carlos, I think you mentioned a couple of times that the company hasn't been able to achieve the backfill ramp as expected. I'm curious, is the company struggling to attract talent? Or is there something that isn't ADP's control as far as not being able to backfill it fast enough? Or is it that we're in a tight labor market and you're have trouble hiring? I guess, maybe just double click on that a little bit and -- for us a little bit. And then how reliant is your guidance for the rest of the year on backfilling or catching up on this backfill? And is there at some point where your guidance is at risk?

卡洛斯，我想你曾多次提到，公司未能如預期實現回填斜坡。我很好奇，這家公司在吸引人才方面遇到困難了嗎？或者說，是否有什麼並非 ADP 所能控制的因素，導致無法足夠快地填補空缺？還是因為勞動市場緊張，你們招人有困難？我想，也許只要雙擊一下，對我們來說就一點點。那麼，你對今年剩餘時間的指導在多大程度上依賴於填補或追趕這些空缺？那麼，你的指導是否會在某些時候面臨風險呢？

Yes. I think I tried to -- in my comments, maybe it didn't come across clearly in terms of second half of my comments, but I don't think it's a matter that we haven't been able to -- I think I spent a few minutes also talking about how it's possible that we didn't need to. And it's just hard to know at this point in time how much scientifically is one thing versus the other. The improvements we've had in client satisfaction, the reduction in call volumes, the improvements in business execution, all of those things take off pressure in terms of the immediacy of the need to backfill. And so that could be a factor in this. So I'm not ready to say that we have been unable to attract people in backfill. We hire thousands of people per year because we, like all companies, have a natural rate of turnover as a result of normal retirements and also just people departing for other opportunities. So again, I'm not going to get into the sausage-making in terms of how many people we hire every year. But suffice to say, it's thousands of people, and we're talking about here in terms of backfills is in the hundreds. So it's absolutely not a factor that we can't attract talent.

是的。我覺得我嘗試過——在我的評論中，也許我的評論後半部分錶達得不夠清楚，但我認為這不是我們無法解決的問題——我想我也花了幾分鐘時間討論過我們可能並不需要這樣做。目前很難從科學角度判斷哪一方面更有利於某一方面，另一方面又有利於某一方面。客戶滿意度的提高、呼叫量的減少、業務執行的改進，所有這些都減輕了填補空缺職位的緊迫性壓力。所以這可能是其中一個因素。所以，我還不能斷言我們無法吸引到足夠的人員來填補空缺。我們每年都會招募數千人，因為和所有公司一樣，由於正常的退休以及人們為了其他機會而離職，我們的人員流動率自然會很高。所以，我不會深入討論我們每年僱用多少人的具體細節。但總而言之，人數是數千人，而我們這裡所說的替補人數是數百人。所以，我們吸引不到人才絕對不是問題。

Great. And maybe just one follow-up on the product side. You mentioned selling Workforce Now to the enterprise as well. And we've heard some feedback that the company is no longer actively selling Vantage. Is that something that's happening where Workforce Now is replacing Vantage as well in the enterprise focus? And is that leading to any kind of change in maybe the buying patterns in the enterprise where you saw some of these deals push out?

偉大的。或許還需要就產品方面做一個後續跟進。您也提到將 Workforce Now 銷售給企業。我們也收到一些回饋，表示該公司已不再積極銷售 Vantage。Workforce Now 是否也在企業級市場取代 Vantage 呢？這是否導致企業採購模式發生某種變化？您是否看到一些交易被推遲了？

We really -- we saw the -- after getting some external help and doing some analysis on market needs, we saw the Workforce Now opportunity in the upmarket as really an incremental opportunity in a segment of the market that we weren't serving as well as we could with Vantage and some of the other solutions that we have. So the answer is no. We're still selling Vantage in the market. It tends to be to a higher averaged size client that's slightly more complex and the Workforce Now solution tends to be a slightly smaller average size client and slightly less complex within the enterprise space. So I'm -- these are all large clients, so I'm talking all about the upmarket, but they're just different segments of the upmarket. And I think Jan mentioned that based on our logo growth, we have some sense that it's incremental. I'm not going to -- we're not going to get into the details how much is one versus the other. But I think, overall, it feels like the pie got a little bit bigger by us selling Workforce Now. We always -- we've been selling Workforce Now for many years. But our -- I think our level of execution and focus on that was not as high as it's been in the last, call it, 12 to 18 months. And it seems to be working very, very well, particularly against certain competitors.

在獲得一些外部幫助並對市場需求進行了一些分析之後，我們看到了 Workforce Now 在高端市場的機會，這確實是一個增量機會，在這個細分市場中，我們之前使用 Vantage 和我們擁有的其他一些解決方案並沒有很好地服務。所以答案是否定的。我們仍在市場上銷售 Vantage 產品。它往往面向平均規模較大、業務略微複雜一些的客戶，而 Workforce Now 解決方案則針對平均規模較小、業務略微簡單一些的企業級客戶。所以，這些都是大客戶，所以我說的都是高端市場，但它們只是高端市場的不同細分領域。我認為 Jan 也提到過，根據我們的 logo 成長情況來看，我們感覺這是一個漸進的過程。我不會——我們不會深入討論兩者之間的具體差異。但我認為，總體而言，我們出售 Workforce Now 後，市場蛋糕似乎變大了一些。我們一直都在銷售 Workforce Now，已經很多年了。但我認為，我們在這方面的執行力和專注度不如過去 12 到 18 個月那麼高。而且它似乎效果非常好，尤其是在對抗某些競爭對手時。

Yes. We continue to invest into Vantage. So absolutely, Vantage is part of the lineup in our enterprise space among Workforce Now and GlobalView and streamline for that for multinational solutions, so...

是的。我們將繼續投資Vantage公司。所以，Vantage 絕對是我們企業級產品線的一部分，與 Workforce Now 和 GlobalView 一起，為跨國解決方案提供簡化流程，所以…

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的傑森庫柏伯格。

So obviously, a lot of focus on bookings here. I was hoping you could give us some of the -- just forward revenue sensitivity to a 1% change in bookings growth. I feel like, in the past, you had talked about some of those kind of rules of thumb there.

顯然，這裡非常注重預訂。我希望您能提供一些關於預訂量成長1%變化對未來收入敏感度的預測數據。我覺得，過去你好像也談過一些類似的經驗法則。

About $15 million in revenue. Remember that, clearly, if this is a timing issue from quarter-to-quarter, it's really not that big of a deal for us longer term because retention is a bigger driver. I think retention is 4x the impact. For 1% of retention. It’s a much bigger number. It's $50 million to $60 million. Sorry, 5x the impact, I'm being told. So that's why, from a business execution standpoint, we have to have our new business bookings grow over time at the rate we have put out there in order to grow the business overall. But the retention rate is -- which we haven't gotten many questions about, is equally, if not more important. And we experienced that firsthand 2 or 3 years ago. We've now fixed that, very proud of it. And we're trying to take a little bit of credit right here.

營收約1500萬美元。請記住，很顯然，如果這只是季度之間的時間安排問題，那麼從長遠來看，這對我們來說真的不算什麼大問題，因為客戶留存率才是更大的驅動因素。我認為留存率的影響是原來的四倍。留存率僅 1%。這是一個更大的數字。金額在5000萬美元到6000萬美元之間。抱歉，據說影響是原來的5倍。所以，從業務執行的角度來看，為了實現業務的整體成長，我們必須讓新業務預訂量以我們設定的速度逐年成長。但留存率——我們很少收到關於這方面的問題——同樣重要，甚至更重要。而我們在兩三年前就親身經歷過這種情況。我們已經解決了這個問題，對此我們感到非常自豪。我們也想在這裡邀請一下。

Okay. That makes sense. And I was just curious on the downmarket bookings in ES. I think you did highlight that as a bright spot. Do you feel like you're taking share downmarket with new business creation, particularly strong sales force productivity?

好的。這很有道理。我只是對西班牙的低端預訂情況感到好奇。我認為你確實把這一點強調為一個亮點。您是否覺得隨著新業務的拓展，尤其是銷售團隊的高效運作，您正在蠶食低端市場的份額？

A little bit of -- I think all of the above. I think that we have -- but our downmarket business also includes our insurance services business. It includes our retirement business, our 401(k) business. It also includes -- we have some time and attendance product. So it's really broad based. I think it's just a business that has, again, been executing exceptionally well after having gotten in a much more simplified environment following the upgrades to our new platform run several years ago. They've just continued to create positive momentum and be -- and have been incredibly competitive in the marketplace. And I can't point to any one factor, but some of the things we've talked around Accountant Connect and the partner, the work with the partners and the channels, I mean, all those things are blocking and tackling in the trenches, and they've just done a terrific job.

我覺得以上都有一點。我認為我們有—但我們的下行市場業務也包括我們的保險服務業務。它包括我們的退休金業務，我們的 401(k) 業務。它還包括——我們有一些考勤產品。所以它的基礎非常廣泛。我認為，這家企業在幾年前升級到我們新的平台運行之後，進入了一個更簡化的環境，並且再次取得了非常出色的表現。他們一直保持著積極的發展勢頭，並且在市場上極具競爭力。我無法指出任何單一因素，但我們圍繞 Accountant Connect 和合作夥伴、與合作夥伴和頻道的合作所討論的一些事情，我的意思是，所有這些都是實戰中的攻防工作，而他們做得非常出色。

The SBS businesses, I think, just crossed 600,000 clients on run, so they're celebrating a big milestone for them.

我認為，SBS 旗下業務的客戶數量剛剛突破 60 萬，所以他們正在慶祝一個重要的里程碑。

Okay. That's helpful. Just one last quick one. You talked about some of the factors driving slower revenue growth in the second half. And currency and M&A lapping were obviously part of the call out there. But on a -- kind of underlying organic constant currency basis, how much decel should we be thinking about? I know you had the SUI pull forward, so that will impact PEO. But outside of that, are there any meaningful factors?

好的。那很有幫助。最後一個簡短的。您談到了導致下半年營收成長放緩的一些因素。貨幣和併購重疊顯然也是市場預期的一部分。但是，從某種潛在的、有機的、不變的貨幣基礎來看，我們應該考慮多大的減速幅度呢？我知道你們的 SUI 提前生效了，所以這會對 PEO 產生影響。但除此之外，還有其他有意義的因素嗎？

I can't -- that really does get into the -- into real sausage-making. I'm not sure that, other than some of the highlights that we've given you, what other stuff we can get down to that level of detail other than kind of helping you with the math in terms of probably better to focus on first half versus second half. Jan probably has a couple of other things that he could add. But I would encourage you, again, because there's a variability from quarter to quarter, to at least look at it on half versus half, first half versus second half.

我不能——這真的涉及到——真正的香腸製作。除了我們已經提到的一些重點之外，我不確定我們還能提供哪些更詳細的信息，除了在數學方面幫助你判斷是否應該更關注上半場而不是下半場之外。Jan可能還有一些其他的東西可以補充。但我還是要再鼓勵你們，因為每季的情況都不一樣，至少要比較一下上半年和下半年的狀況。

Yes. I'm trying to -- I'm looking at the factors there. Like, a lot of ups and downs here, but the FX impact, obviously, we isolated the biggest ones that are different from the first half versus the second half. So I think I'm looking here. The FX headwind pressure for our revenue is about 0.5%. And we're expecting that meaningfully higher for the rest of the year, like 30, 40 basis points higher, for example. And then M&A is tapering out and that's going to give you a few basis points of pressure on the revenue growth as well.

是的。我正在嘗試——我正在研究其中的各種因素。這裡有許多起伏，但外匯市場的影響很明顯，我們已經找出上半年和下半年最大的差異。所以我想我應該在這裡找找。外匯波動對我們收入造成的負面影響約為 0.5%。我們預計今年剩餘時間裡，這一數字還會顯著上升，例如上升 30 到 40 個基點。然後，併購活動逐漸減少，這也會對收入成長帶來一些壓力。

From my list here, I think Jan probably went through all of them, but we talked about the PEO pull forward on SUI. We talked about FX. We talked about M&A. Those are probably small. I don't know if we can quantify it exactly. But even if we have a bounce back in the third quarter around our e-business bookings, there's clearly a revenue implication from the prior quarter, right, from the current quarter that we're talking about now on the third and fourth quarters. So that has a little bit of an impact as well.

根據我列出的清單，我認為 Jan 可能都看過了，但我們討論了 PEO 在 SUI 方面的提前行動。我們討論了外匯。我們討論了併購。這些可能很小。我不知道我們能否對其進行精確量化。但即使我們的電子商務訂單在第三季出現反彈，也明顯會對上一季的營收產生影響，對吧？對吧？我們現在討論的是第三季和第四季。所以這也會產生一些影響。

And Jason, just to confirm your question earlier. So the $15 million that we gave you is a 1% change in new business bookings translating to an annualized $15 million.

傑森，我只是想確認一下你之前的問題。因此，我們給您的 1500 萬美元是新業務預訂量 1% 的變化，換算成年化收入為 1500 萬美元。

Our next question comes from Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Lisa Ellis。

First question is on PEO consolidation. Obviously, Paychex has made a couple of acquisitions in the PEO space, and there remain hundreds of small players in that space. But I know, in the past, Carlos, you've mentioned some hesitation around the ability to consolidate that space given different risk parameters. Can you just update us on your view on growth in the PEO business and whether that, in your view, needs to be organic or whether there's an opportunity to do some inorganic consolidation as well?

第一個問題是關於PEO整合的。顯然，Paychex 在 PEO 領域進行了一些收購，但該領域仍存在數百家小型企業。但我知道，卡洛斯，你過去曾提到過，考慮到不同的風險參數，你對整合該領域的能力有所猶豫。您能否簡要介紹一下您對 PEO 業務成長的看法，以及您認為這種成長是否必須依靠內生式成長，還是也有機會進行一些外延式整合？

Thanks for the question, Lisa. It's a good question. I think, in the case of the PEO, one of the things that's a little different from the PEO from the rest of our business, and I think this will probably be true for everyone out there, is that when you make an acquisition, you're buying obviously platforms, you're buying people, existing clients, but you're also buying historical underwriting decisions. And so I would kind of compare it to even -- maybe not a great comparison to a bank or an insurance company in the sense that whether or not you're taking risk, you are buying a book of business that you didn't underwrite yourself. And so that doesn't mean that you can't get comfortable, which is probably what Paychex was able to do. You go in and you take samples of clients that have been brought into the book of business. You look at underwriting standards. And so -- it's not that it's not possible to do acquisitions in the PEO or in banks or in insurance company that happens obviously all the time. But it's generally not ADP style given that we work so hard to make our business perform as the rest of the ADP businesses. So the thing we do for example with ACE Insurance around reinsurance is to really have the revenue growth and the margins and the profit of the PEO behave like the typical processing business in ADP. That tends to make it hard for us to go out into the marketplace looking for PEO acquisitions. It doesn't mean that we're not open for business. So we -- I think we are. We do have this inherent advantage versus some PEOs in the sense that we have our own internal referral systems because of the thousands of salespeople that we have out on the street. And so we think that, that's -- that fuel for our organic growth is something that we should pay more attention to than inorganic growth. But I'd say we were open to that idea and to that concept. But I think the best way to put it is -- the bar is higher than maybe for other types of acquisitions in our company.

謝謝你的提問，麗莎。這是個好問題。我認為，就 PEO 而言，它與我們業務的其他部分略有不同，而且我認為這對其他人來說可能也是如此，那就是當你進行收購時，你顯然是在購買平台、購買人員、購買現有客戶，但你也在購買歷史承保決策。因此，我甚至會把它比作——也許與銀行或保險公司不太相符，因為無論你是否承擔風險，你都是在購買一份你沒有親自承保的業務。所以這並不意味著你不能感到舒適，而這可能正是 Paychex 所做到的。你進去後，會抽取一些已納入業務範圍的客戶樣本。你要看承保標準。所以——並不是說在 PEO、銀行或保險公司中就不可能進行收購，這種情況顯然一直都在發生。但考慮到我們努力使我們的業務與其他 ADP 業務一樣高效運轉，這通常不是 ADP 的風格。例如，我們與 ACE 保險公司在再保險方面所做的，就是讓 PEO 的收入成長、利潤率和利潤表現得像 ADP 的典型處理業務一樣。這使得我們很難進入市場尋找 PEO 收購目標。但這並不意味著我們不營業。所以——我想我們是。與一些 PEO 相比，我們確實擁有一個固有的優勢，那就是我們擁有自己的內部推薦系統，因為我們有成千上萬的銷售人員在外奔波。因此我們認為，有機成長的動力是我們應該比無機成長更重視的東西。但我認為我們對這個想法和這個概念持開放態度。但我認為最好的說法是——對於我們公司而言，這次收購的標準可能比其它類型的收購要高。

Terrific. And then my follow-up is related to Cash Card. I know that offering and that acquisition that you made about 1 year, 1.5 years ago now. It's targeted at this disbursement market, the contract worker market, which, elsewhere across the payments world, is kind of going, like, wildfire. So I'm just wondering, can you give us just an update on the progress with that acquisition and the monetization of that product, the traction you're seeing with that product in your base?

了不起。接下來，我的後續問題與現金卡有關。我知道你大約在一年前到一年半前進行的那次收購和交易。它的目標市場是支付市場，也就是合約工市場，而這個市場在支付領域的其他地方正像野火一樣迅速蔓延。所以我想問一下，您能否向我們介紹一下此次收購的進度、該產品的盈利情況，以及該產品在您的用戶群中的表現？

Thank you, Lisa. The Global Cash Card acquisition was a second major acquisition now has annualized in the ADP portfolio. There's another one that we are very happy about. We -- it's a fairly strategic move for us to augment our payment capabilities as a leading payroll provider in the country and in the globe really. And we had very good sales success with the Global Cash Card. It documented our capabilities and the integration of our existing card business with Global Cash Card and the strategic initiatives that we had in our business plans are all making very good progress.

謝謝你，麗莎。Global Cash Card 的收購是 ADP 投資組合中第二筆重大收購，目前已實現年度化。還有一件事讓我們非常高興。對我們而言，作為國內乃至全球領先的薪資服務供應商，增強我們的支付能力是一項相當具有策略意義的舉措。我們的全球現金卡銷售業績非常出色。它記錄了我們的能力，以及我們現有卡片業務與 Global Cash Card 的整合情況，而我們業務計劃中的策略舉措都取得了非常好的進展。

And our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

You had commented earlier about the tone of business from your clients. I'm assuming you were mostly referring to the U.S. I know Europe is relatively small component of your portfolio. But can you talk about what's going on there?

你之前曾評論過客戶的業務氛圍。我猜你主要指的是美國。我知道歐洲在你投資組合中所佔比例相對較小。但你能談談那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

Not that small. Again, it's all -- it's a good point because relative to the size of ADP, you could say that it's not a huge percentage, but it's a pretty good-sized business. We have a very large business in Europe that's performing quite well. And so even though there you could argue that there's some deceleration -- kind of second derivative deceleration, the business is clearly better than it was 3 years ago, 4 years ago or 5 years ago. There is -- unemployment is decreasing. Employment is rising. The environment -- the business environment -- again, there's headlines and then there's the facts on the ground. I think that the economy may not be as good as it was 9 months ago, but it's performing pretty well. And I think that's showing in some of our results. I think we had, coincidently, to your question, a good quarter in terms of our international bookings, particularly in Europe and particularly in France. So we see some positive pockets and some optimism in Europe, and that certainly helps our overall performance for the company. So we're very, very happy about that.

不算小。再說一遍，這都說得對——因為相對於 ADP 的規模而言，可以說這百分比並不大，但畢竟它是一家規模相當大的企業。我們在歐洲擁有規模龐大的業務，而且業績相當不錯。因此，即使可以說存在某種程度的成長放緩——某種程度上的二階導數放緩——但顯然，現在的業務狀況比 3 年前、4 年前或 5 年前要好得多。確實如此——失業率正在下降。就業率正在上升。商業環境——也就是新聞標題——同樣，有新聞標題，也有實際狀況。我認為，雖然經濟狀況可能不如9個月前那麼好，但目前表現相當不錯。我認為這在我們的一些結果中有所體現。巧合的是，就您的問題而言，我們本季的國際預訂情況良好，尤其是在歐洲，特別是法國。因此，我們看到歐洲市場出現了一些正面的跡象和樂觀情緒，這無疑有助於公司的整體表現。所以我們對此感到非常非常高興。

And our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel Financial.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Financial 的 David Grossman。

So Carlos, just based on your comments earlier, it sounds like there's a possibility, at least, that you may be able to operate with lower headcount without impacting client delivery. So if I'm understanding that correctly, how would you use kind of that excess margin? And what does that tell you, if anything, about the incremental potential operating leverage in the business?

所以卡洛斯，僅根據你先前的評論來看，至少有可能在不影響客戶交付的情況下，減少員工人數。如果我理解正確的話，你會如何利用這部分多餘的利潤空間呢？那麼，這又能說明企業在營運槓桿方面有哪些潛在的增量價值呢？

That's a great question because I think there was a comment in our script about "competing demands." And so we believe that we have an opportunity, as we've communicated in our 2018 investor day, for improvements in margin in the -- structurally in the business. On the other hand, we're running the company for the long term. I think I mentioned this in the call last quarter that we're turning 70 years old in June of this year. And our intention is to continue to invest and build a business that will endure for another 70 years. And so that means that you have to be cautious about becoming too greedy and being too focused on the short term. And our board is not going to let that happen, and we're not going to let that happen. So I think the -- we're going to be very careful about making sure that whatever improvements we gain from a margin standpoint are not compromising our client satisfaction, not compromising our retention rate and not compromising our investments in product and R&D.

這是一個很好的問題，因為我認為我們的腳本中提到了「相互競爭的需求」。因此，正如我們在2018年投資者日上所溝通的那樣，我們相信我們有機會在業務結構上提高利潤率。另一方面，我們經營公司的首要目標是長期發展。我想我在上個季度的電話會議上提到過，我們今年六月就滿70歲了。我們的目標是繼續投資，打造一個能夠持續經營70年的企業。所以這意味著你必須小心，不要變得太貪婪，過度專注於短期利益。我們的董事會不會允許這種情況發生，我們也不會允許這種情況發生。所以我認為——我們將非常謹慎地確保從利潤率角度獲得的任何改進都不會損害我們的客戶滿意度、客戶留存率以及我們在產品和研發方面的投資。

Okay. And I guess, the other question gets back to the kind of the durability of the model. And I know you said that you're not seeing any signs of economic weakness. That said, aside from slowed income, which I know there have been some changes in the dynamic since the last recession, but is there any other changes in the business that may suggest you could perform differently if there were another recession in the next 12 to 24 months? And perhaps, you could speak specifically to the PEO, which, I think, it grew through the last recession and just curious whether or not you have any updated thoughts on that, if there was a slowdown and how it may impact that business units as well.

好的。我想，另一個問題還是回到了這款機型的耐用性。我知道您說過您沒有看到任何經濟疲軟的跡象。也就是說，除了收入放緩之外（我知道自上次經濟衰退以來，市場動態發生了一些變化），如果未來 12 到 24 個月內再次發生經濟衰退，企業是否還有其他變化，表明你們的業績可能會有所不同？或許您可以具體談談 PEO（專業雇主組織），我認為它在上一次經濟衰退期間發展壯大，我很好奇您是否對此有任何最新的看法，例如經濟是否放緩，以及這可能會如何影響這些業務部門。

It's a great question because we spend a lot of time thinking about making sure that our business is enduring. And we spend certainly some amount of time about what our reaction would be to any kind of slowdown. So I think that the most important thing heading into a slowdown would be to do the things that we are doing now. And we're not doing them because we expect a slowdown. We're doing them because it was the right thing to do, having high client satisfaction scores, having strong retention, making sure that you're properly invested in your sales engine and, most importantly, having great products. And so one of the things that I'm excited about is our next-generation solutions and some of the other investments we've been making in R&D over multiple years are really just -- are in front of us. They're not behind us. So we only have handfuls of clients. And we expect, in a few years, to have many more. And we expect that to make us more competitive. And we expect that to lower our cost structure as well. And so if it just so happens that we have a recession in 2 years, and it just so happens that we have our new products really coming to market and getting the traction we expect them to get, then I would expect that we would, on a relative basis, outperform where we would have performed in the past and where we would see our competitors performing. And so that is, again, one ray of optimism, I think, is that we've been making some investments in the business that weren't intended to address a recession, but they would be particularly handy in case of a recession.

這是一個很好的問題，因為我們花了很多時間思考如何確保我們的業務能夠長久發展。我們當然會花一些時間思考，如果經濟出現任何放緩，我們會如何反應。所以我認為，在經濟放緩時期，最重要的是繼續做我們現在正在做的事情。我們這樣做並非因為我們預期經濟會放緩。我們這樣做是因為這是正確的事情，我們擁有高客戶滿意度評分、強大的客戶留存率，確保您在銷售引擎方面得到適當的投入，最重要的是，我們擁有優秀的產品。因此，讓我感到興奮的事情之一是我們的下一代解決方案，以及我們多年來在研發方面進行的其他一些投資，這些成果真的就在我們眼前。他們並沒有落後於我們。所以我們的客戶寥寥無幾。我們預計，幾年後，會有更多這樣的情況發生。我們預計這將使我們更具競爭力。我們也預計這將降低我們的成本結構。因此，如果兩年後恰逢經濟衰退，而我們的新產品也恰好上市並獲得預期的市場認可，那麼我預計，從相對意義上講，我們的表現將優於我們過去的表現以及我們競爭對手的表現。所以，我認為這又是一個令人樂觀的跡象，那就是我們一直在對業務進行一些投資，這些投資並非旨在應對經濟衰退，但如果真的發生經濟衰退，這些投資將特別有用。

And how about in the context of the PEO? Would you expect some more performance as we did 10 years ago? Or is it just the business is more mature, more heavily penetrated, so that would be a lot to expect from that particular business?

那麼，在 PEO 的背景下又該如何看待呢？你們期望我們能取得像10年前的成績嗎？或者說，是因為這個產業比較成熟，市場滲透率更高，所以對這個產業抱持這樣的期望就有點過高了？

Well, I would hope that it will continue to perform the same way because it is a business like similar businesses where an economic slowdown sometimes creates more discussions and more opportunities. It doesn't mean you can't -- that you don't have to go execute against those and get those deals and get those contracts, which sometimes get harder in the upmarket as people restrain budgets. But there is an argument to be made potentially that in the PEO in a downturn, people do look for alternatives in outsourcing opportunities to stabilize and control their own cost. And that creates some opportunities for the PEO. It's probably going too far to say that the PEO is countercyclical, but it has performed well in the last couple of downturns because we've been through 2 downturns now since we've owned the PEO, and it's performed quite well in both settings. And just a couple of last thoughts on the previous comments, as I thought more about it. Heading into a recession, clearly, the comment about our ability to run the business with less headcount is accurate. And I think that is incredibly helpful. Having a leaner organization with less complexity and executing really well is an incredibly important part of having an organization that's prepared for any kind of downturns, so that we can weather that.

我希望它能繼續保持同樣的業績，因為它和其他類似企業一樣，經濟放緩有時會帶來更多的討論和更多的機會。但這並不意味著你不能——你不必去執行這些交易、達成這些協議、簽訂這些合同，而隨著人們預算的縮減，在高端市場中，這些有時會變得更加困難。但也有理由認為，在經濟低迷時期，PEO（專業雇主組織）會尋求外包機會來穩定和控制自己的成本。這為專業雇主組織 (PEO) 創造了一些機會。說 PEO 具有反週期性可能有點誇張，但它在最近幾次經濟衰退中表現良好，因為自從我們持有 PEO 以來，我們已經經歷了兩次經濟衰退，而且它在這兩種情況下都表現得相當不錯。關於之前的評論，我再仔細思考一下，最後還有幾點想法。顯然，在經濟衰退即將到來之際，關於我們能夠在人員減少的情況下經營業務的說法是準確的。我認為這非常有幫助。擁有一個更精簡、更簡單的組織，並且能高效執行，對於一個能夠應對任何經濟衰退的組織來說，是極其重要的一環，這樣我們才能渡過難關。

Our final question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Crédit Suisse.

最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Of course, you've been working hard on the retention. I wondered if you could just give us a little update on that. You reaffirmed the guidance where kind of most of the progress has been being kind of down, mid-, upmarket. And then any thoughts on, just longer term, where that can get to?

當然，你們一直在努力提高客戶留存率。我想請您簡單介紹一下這方面的最新進展。你重申了先前的指導方針，即大部分進展都集中在低端、中端和高端市場。那麼，從長遠來看，您認為這會發展成什麼樣子呢？

Well, I think -- I hate -- I know this is terrible to do, so I'd just take you back to our 2018 investor day where, I think, we provided some ideas around where we think retention will go in the next several years. There are some structural issues around retention, particularly in the downmarket where, out of business, I think, creates a natural turnover in the client base. But we still have quite a bit of controllable losses in all of our businesses. So I think from a -- the practical answer mathematically is that there's quite a bit of potential still in terms of retention improvement. But the guardrails around that are the reality of history where, I think, over long periods of time, ADP has been able to improve retention structurally over long periods of time, which is very impressive. And that's due probably to a combination of execution, higher attach rates and more stickiness of products, associates performing better. There's probably a number of factors. But these things have happened in, call it, 20, 25 basis point increments, not 1 or 2 percentage points in 1 year. And so I think it's probably a multiyear, multi-decade effort to just continue to ratchet up retention because any improvements in retention, obviously, are incredibly important in terms of the business model profitability and the lifetime value that we create at the client level. It really makes a huge difference for the economics of the business. So we're going to continue to focus on it. And I guess, the simple answer is we still think there's a lot of upside opportunity on retention, but it requires us to have great products, which, we are, just now, I think, focused on rolling out into the market in certain areas. If you take the example of our downmarket and now our mid-market, you would argue that ADP has a lot of potential for improvement in retention.

嗯，我想——我討厭——我知道這樣做很糟糕，所以我只想帶你回顧一下我們 2018 年的投資者日，我認為，在那次會議上，我們提出了一些關於未來幾年用戶留存率發展方向的想法。在客戶留存方面存在一些結構性問題，尤其是在市場低迷時期，企業倒閉會導致客戶群自然更替。但我們所有業務中仍然存在相當多的可控損失。所以我認為，從數學角度來看，實際的答案是，在提高用戶留存率方面仍然有很大的潛力。但圍繞這一點的護欄是歷史的現實，我認為，從長遠來看，ADP 已經能夠從結構上提高員工留存率，這非常令人印象深刻。這可能是由於執行力提升、附加率提高、產品黏性增強以及員工表現更佳等因素共同作用的結果。可能有很多因素。但這些變化是以 20、25 個基點為單位逐步發生的，而不是一年內變化 1 或 2 個百分點。因此，我認為提高客戶留存率可能需要數年甚至數十年的時間，因為任何提高客戶留存率的措施，對於商業模式的盈利能力以及我們在客戶層面創造的終身價值來說，顯然都非常重要。這確實會對企業的經濟效益產生巨大影響。所以我們會繼續關注這件事。我想，簡單的答案是，我們仍然認為用戶留存方面有很大的發展空間，但這需要我們擁有優秀的產品，而我們現在正專注於在某些地區將這些產品推向市場。以我們之前的低階市場和現在的中階市場為例，你會認為 ADP 在客戶留存方面有很大的改進潛力。

And can you remind us, is there a way to quantify how much of the retention is just business failings as opposed to competed away?

您能否提醒我們一下，有沒有辦法量化客戶流失中有多少是因為業務失誤造成的，又有多少是因為競爭造成的？

I think we'll get back to you on that one in terms of overall for ADP. If memory serves me correctly, in our downmarket business, it's between 5% and 10% of the overall losses. Somewhere in that ballpark are, what we call, uncontrollable, so bankruptcies and just companies going out of business because small businesses start and then they kind of go out of business. You've seen the stats around what the average life expectancy is for a company that's less than 50 employees over 5 years. It's a -- there's a natural churn in that space. As you get into the mid-market, the upmarket and international, the structural retention rates are much higher. The potential rates are incredibly high. On our multinational business, in GlobalView specifically, 98% to 100% retention is really kind of the expected retention rate there. It's quite a resilient business.

關於ADP的整體情況，我想我們會稍後回覆您。如果我沒記錯的話，在我們這種低階市場業務中，損失佔總損失的 5% 到 10%。在這個範圍內，存在著我們稱之為不可控的因素，例如破產和公司倒閉，因為小企業開始經營，然後又倒閉。你已經看到了關於員工人數少於 50 人的公司在 5 年內平均壽命的統計數據。這是一個——這個領域自然存在著一種變化。隨著市場進入中端市場、高端市場和國際市場，結構性留存率要高得多。潛在利率非常高。在我們這家跨國公司，特別是 GlobalView，98% 到 100% 的顧客留存率算是比較正常的。這是一個韌性很強的行業。

This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I'm pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for further closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我很高興將節目交給卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，請他作最後的總結發言。

So we appreciate your questions today. And as you can see, we're very pleased with the start of the year. And we're happy, I think, not just because of the strong financial performance, which we clearly had, but mostly -- most importantly, we're very happy about having been able to accomplish that, while continuing to improve our client satisfaction scores and, in some cases, having those reach record high levels. As always, I want to thank our associates. I think they're the ones that are able to -- that allow us to deliver these kinds of record client satisfaction results, which then allow us to deliver the financial results and the great service that we deliver to our clients. And appreciate their patience and everyone's patience as we continue to enhance and refine our products, our service tools and as we go through our transformation efforts because I know that change is not easy. But clearly, our associates have embraced it, and we're executing well against the transformation initiatives. We'll obviously continue to be confident in the strategy that we've laid out here over the last couple of years and also the -- what we've been talking about for the last few quarters about the performance of the business this year. And we feel good -- very good about the momentum for the rest of the fiscal year. So with that, I thank you for joining us today, and I thank you for your continued interest in ADP.

非常感謝大家今天提出的問題。正如你所看到的，我們對今年的開局非常滿意。我認為，我們感到高興，不僅是因為我們取得了強勁的財務業績（這一點顯而易見），更重要的是，我們很高興能夠在取得這些成就的同時，繼續提高客戶滿意度評分，並且在某些情況下，客戶滿意度評分達到了歷史新高。一如既往，我要感謝我們的同事。我認為正是他們讓我們能夠取得如此創紀錄的客戶滿意度，進而讓我們能夠取得良好的財務表現並為客戶提供優質服務。感謝他們的耐心，也感謝大家在我們不斷改進和完善產品、服務工具以及進行轉型工作的過程中所展現出的耐心，因為我知道改變並不容易。但很顯然，我們的員工已經接受了這些舉措，我們在轉型計畫的執行上也做得很好。我們顯然會繼續對我們在過去幾年中製定的策略充滿信心，而且，我們在過去幾個季度中一直在談論的關於今年業務表現的前景也充滿信心。我們對本財年剩餘時間的發展動能感到非常樂觀。那麼，感謝各位今天蒞臨，也感謝各位一直以來對ADP的關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。今天的節目到此結束，大家可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天過得愉快。