自動資料處理 (ADP) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Christie, and I will be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫克里斯蒂，我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2018財年第四季財報電話會議。我想通知各位，本次會議正在錄音（操作說明）。

I will turn the conference over to Mr. Christian Greyenbuhl, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂安·格雷恩布爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Christie, and good morning, everyone. This is Christian Greyenbuhl, ADP's Vice President, Investor Relations, and I'm here today with Carlos Rodriguez, ADP's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jan Siegmund, ADP's Chief Financial Officer. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter fiscal 2018 earnings call and webcast.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂，大家早安。我是 ADP 投資者關係副總裁 Christian Greyenbuhl，今天與 ADP 總裁兼執行長 Carlos Rodriguez 和 ADP 財務長 Jan Siegmund 一起出席。感謝您參加我們2018財年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。

During our call today, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which, we believe, to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items in the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2018 as well as the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2017. A description of these items and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures can be found in this morning's press release and in the supplemental slides on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非GAAP財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且排除了2018財年第四季度和全年以及2017財年第四季度和全年某些項目的影響。有關這些項目的說明以及這些非GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱今天早上的新聞稿以及我們投資者關係網站上的補充幻燈片。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and, as such, involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件，因此存在一定的風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。

I would also like to note that as we outlined during our recent investor day, beginning with the first quarter of fiscal 2019, we'll be making some changes to our disclosures and reporting. You will find an explanation of the changes in the Financial Outlook and Additional Material sections of our investor day presentation. Accordingly, our fiscal 2019 outlook reflects these changes and, to ensure comparability, includes all the necessary adjustments to fiscal 2018 results.

我還想指出，正如我們在最近的投資者日上概述的那樣，從 2019 財年第一季開始，我們將對披露和報告進行一些更改。您可以在我們的投資者日簡報的「財務展望」和「補充資料」部分找到有關這些變化的解釋。因此，我們的 2019 財年展望反映了這些變化，並且為了確保可比性，包含了 2018 財年業績的所有必要調整。

For the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2018, our results and related discussion do not reflect these changes and are, therefore, on the same basis of presentation as our previous quarters. We recognize the complexity of this transition. And therefore, to bridge the 2, we have included select fiscal 2018 pro forma financials and metrics in the appendix to our earnings presentation found on our Investor Relations website. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out should you have any questions regarding these new metrics and disclosures.

2018 財年第四季及全年業績及相關討論並未反映這些變化，因此，其列報方式與我們先前的季度相同。我們認識到這轉變的複雜性。因此，為了彌補這兩者之間的差距，我們在投資者關係網站上的收益簡報附錄中加入了部分 2018 財年的備考財務數據和指標。如有任何關於這些新指標和揭露方面的問題，請隨時與我們聯絡。

Now let me turn the call over to Carlos.

現在我把電話交給卡洛斯。

Thank you, Christian. good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported our fourth quarter fiscal 2018 results with revenue of $3.3 billion, up 8% reported and 6% organic constant currency. We ended the year with total revenue of $13.3 billion, up 8% reported and 6% organic constant currency.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。大家早安。今天上午，我們公佈了 2018 財年第四季業績，營收達 33 億美元，按報告匯率計算成長 8%，以固定匯率計算成長 6%。我們全年總營收達到 133 億美元，以報告匯率計算成長 8%，以固定匯率計算成長 6%。

We're very happy to report our new business bookings grew 18% in the fourth quarter and 8% for the year, both ahead of our expectations.

我們非常高興地報告，第四季度新業務預訂量增長了 18%，全年增長了 8%，均超出預期。

We saw strong performance across all of our businesses this quarter, which, we believe, serves as further validation of the renewed momentum within our sales force following fiscal 2017. We were also pleased to see our new logo strategy continue to show results with double-digit new client growth this quarter and nearly double-digit growth for the full year.

本季我們所有業務都取得了強勁的業績，我們相信，這進一步證明了我們銷售團隊在 2017 財年後重獲活力。我們也很高興地看到，我們的新標誌策略持續取得成效，本季新客戶數量實現了兩位數成長，全年也接近兩位數成長。

Now let me spend a few moments on the recent performance of our PEO. Revenues for the year grew 12%, in line with our expectations, while average worksite employees grew 9% to 504,000. After a softer third quarter bookings and retention performance, we took certain actions to address our internal lead flows that, we believe, will help drive a reacceleration next year, and we are pleased to see positive signs of this working this quarter with double-digit bookings growth and solid double-digit new logo growth. Similar to last quarter, our PEO bookings and retention were strong in the downmarket, while we have continued to see some pressure from larger client losses in the mid-market. However, our competitive position remained strong, and the volatility in our mid-market retention is not new and follows a record-high retention in fiscal 2017. We have previously outlined the volatility of retention within the PEO and, particularly, the impact of the timing of larger client losses. As we work to overcome some of these challenges from the second half of fiscal 2018, we continue to believe that the PEO represents a significant opportunity for us. With nearly $1 billion of revenues, excluding pass-throughs and very healthy margins, we remain excited about the future of the PEO.

現在請容許我花幾分鐘時間談談我們PEO最近的業績。本年度收入成長了 12%，符合我們的預期，而平均工作場所員工人數增加了 9%，達到 504,000 人。在第三季預訂量和客戶留存率表現疲軟之後，我們採取了一些措施來解決內部銷售線索問題，我們相信這些措施將有助於推動明年的業績回升，我們很高興看到這些措施在本季度取得了積極的成效，預訂量實現了兩位數的增長，新客戶數量也實現了兩位數的穩健增長。與上個季度類似，我們在低端市場的 PEO 預訂量和客戶留存率表現強勁，而中端市場則持續面臨較大客戶流失帶來的壓力。然而，我們的競爭地位依然強勁，中端市場客戶留存率的波動並非新鮮事，而是在 2017 財年創紀錄的高留存率之後出現的。我們先前已經概述了 PEO 內部客戶留存率的波動性，特別是較大客戶流失時間的影響。在我們努力克服 2018 財年下半年的一些挑戰之際，我們仍然相信 PEO 對我們來說是一個重要的機會。扣除轉嫁費用後，公司收入接近 10 億美元，利潤率也非常健康，我們對 PEO 的未來充滿信心。

Now I'd like to focus on the strong progress of our investments to improve the client experience. With our mid-market migrations behind us and our Service Alignment Initiative nearing completion, we are happy to see a continued overall improvement in our client satisfaction scores this quarter. In particular, we were very happy to see our mid-market scores return back to levels last seen in early fiscal 2015, and we are confident our recent service initiatives will help drive continued improvements across our entire portfolio.

現在我想重點介紹一下我們在改善客戶體驗方面的投資所取得的顯著進展。隨著中階市場遷移工作的完成以及服務調整計畫接近尾聲，我們很高興地看到本季客戶滿意度評分持續整體提升。尤其令我們欣喜的是，我們的中端市場得分已恢復到 2015 財年初以來的水平，我們相信，我們最近推出的服務舉措將有助於推動我們整個產品組合的持續改進。

Our Employer Services revenue retention for the quarter and for the full year were both in line with expectations. As you know, on a quarterly basis, this metric can be volatile. And this quarter, we saw a decline of 120 basis points. However, more importantly, for the full year, we were pleased to see continued positive year-over-year momentum as our overall annual retention increased by 50 basis points to 90.4% and continues to benefit from the improvements in client satisfaction that I just outlined.

本季和全年的雇主服務收入留存率均符合預期。如您所知，該指標按季度來看波動較大。本季度，我們看到下降了120個基點。然而，更重要的是，就全年而言，我們很高興地看到同比勢頭持續向好，我們的年度整體客戶留存率提高了 50 個基點，達到 90.4%，並繼續受益於我剛才概述的客戶滿意度的提高。

Going forward, we will be guiding to annual retention, and Jan will take you through some of these changes later.

接下來，我們將進行年度留存率評估，Jan 稍後會向大家詳細介紹其中的一些變化。

In early June, we hosted an investor day where we discussed in detail our strategic vision, transformation initiatives and financial outlook for the next 3 years. We received a lot of positive feedback. And for those of you who may have missed it, or would like to revisit it, the materials and the video replay have been posted to our Investor Relations website. Our goal for the event was to outline our plans for driving sustainable long-term profitable growth and provide a deep dive into our product strategy and the actions we have been taking to accelerate our transformation initiatives. Through our investments in product, service and distribution, we continue to build our momentum. We are shaping the HCM industry through organic innovations, such as our next-gen platforms as well as our strategic acquisitions, such as Global Cash Card and WorkMarket.

6月初，我們舉辦了投資者日活動，詳細討論了我們未來3年的策略願景、轉型舉措和財務展望。我們收到了很多正面的回饋。如果您錯過了本次活動，或想要重溫活動內容，相關資料和影片回放已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。我們舉辦此次活動的目的是概述我們推動可持續長期獲利成長的計劃，並深入探討我們的產品策略以及我們為加速轉型計劃而採取的行動。透過對產品、服務和分銷的投入，我們不斷增強發展動能。我們透過自主創新（例如我們的下一代平台）以及策略性收購（例如 Global Cash Card 和 WorkMarket）來塑造 HCM 產業。

Our leading position in the global HCM market continues to represent a significant opportunity for us. And earlier today, we were proud to announce the acquisition of Celergo, a respected provider of international payroll management services. Celergo complements and augments our current multinational offerings through the combination of a proprietary, cloud-based platform and a broad local partner network across 150 countries, and we couldn't be more excited. With these investments, we are expanding on our position as the only global HCM provider that can help businesses address their full hire to retire needs across their entire workforce, be that traditional or freelance.

我們在全球HCM市場的領先地位持續為我們帶來巨大的機會。今天早些時候，我們很榮幸地宣布收購了 Celergo，一家備受尊敬的國際薪資管理服務提供商。Celergo 透過其專有的雲端平台和覆蓋 150 個國家的廣泛本地合作夥伴網絡，補充和增強了我們目前的跨國產品，我們對此感到無比興奮。透過這些投資，我們將鞏固自身地位，成為唯一一家能夠幫助企業滿足其整個員工隊伍（無論是傳統員工還是自由工作者）從招聘到退休的全生命週期人力資本管理 (HCM) 提供者。

We also continue to engage with a number of key partners, including our recent partnership with Microsoft to bring together Workforce Now and Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central and innovators like Slack and ZipRecruiter. As the world of work continues to evolve rapidly, we continue to focus on staying ahead of the curve.

我們也繼續與許多重要合作夥伴保持聯繫，包括我們最近與微軟的合作，將 Workforce Now 和 Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central 整合在一起，以及與 Slack 和 ZipRecruiter 等創新者合作。隨著工作環境的快速發展，我們將繼續致力於保持領先地位。

Last quarter, with the assistance of the transformation office, we finalized plans for a voluntary early retirement program. We were pleased to start fiscal 2019 through a successfully managed first wave of transitions, and we remain focused on executing this initiative in an orderly and timely manner. As a result, we recognized a non-GAAP charge of $337 million in the fourth quarter and anticipate annualized pretax savings of approximately $150 million with about 2/3 of the anticipated benefit expected in fiscal 2019.

上個季度，在轉型辦公室的協助下，我們最終確定了自願提早退休計畫。我們很高興在 2019 財年伊始就成功完成了第一階段的過渡工作，我們將繼續專注於有序、及時地執行這項計劃。因此，我們在第四季度確認了 3.37 億美元的非 GAAP 費用，預計每年可節省約 1.5 億美元稅前成本，其中約 2/3 的預期收益預計將在 2019 財年實現。

All these goals and success would not be possible without the hard work and dedication of our associates who continue to be an integral part of our efforts to drive change and ensure our successful transformation.

如果沒有我們員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，所有這些目標和成功都不可能實現，他們一直是推動變革和確保成功轉型的重要組成部分。

And with that, I'll turn over the call to Jan for his commentary on the fourth quarter results and fiscal 2019 outlook.

接下來，我將把電話交給 Jan，請他對第四季度業績和 2019 財年展望進行評論。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning, everyone. As Carlos mentioned, we finished the year with solid momentum, driven by better-than-expected consolidated new business bookings growth of 8% to $1.8 billion for fiscal year 2018. ADP's reported revenues also continued to show improvements relative to our expectations and grew 8% in fiscal year 2018 or 6% organic constant currency supported by our continued improvement in our Employer Services retention.

謝謝你，卡洛斯，大家早安。正如卡洛斯所提到的那樣，我們以穩健的勢頭結束了這一年，這得益於2018財年合併新業務預訂量增長8%，達到18億美元，高於預期。ADP 公佈的收入也繼續超出預期，在 2018 財年增長了 8%，按固定匯率計算增長了 6%，這得益於我們在雇主服務客戶留存率方面的持續改善。

On a reported basis, earnings before income taxes decreased 14%, while our adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or adjusted EBIT, increased 8%, including approximately 1 point lift from FX and 1 point of pressure from the impact of our fiscal year 2018 acquisitions.

根據報告數據，稅前利潤下降了 14%，而調整後的息稅前利潤（調整後 EBIT）增加了 8%，其中包括匯率帶來的約 1 個百分點的成長和 2018 財年收購帶來的 1 個百分點的壓力。

Adjusted EBIT margin was up about 10 basis points compared to fiscal year 2017 and was slightly above expectations covered at our investor day, despite higher selling expenses due to the strong bookings performance. While we're also being well ahead of our original expectations set at the beginning of the year, our performance benefited from continued improvements in our infrastructure and sales spend and from the successful execution of certain transformation initiatives that we outlined during our investor day. We achieved all of this while also overcoming about 30 basis points of pressure from our fiscal year 2018 acquisitions.

儘管由於強勁的預訂業績導致銷售費用增加，但調整後的息稅前利潤率仍比 2017 財年提高了約 10 個基點，略高於我們在投資者日上所預期的水平。雖然我們也遠遠超出了年初設定的預期，但我們的業績得益於基礎設施和銷售支出的持續改進，以及我們在投資者日上概述的某些轉型計劃的成功實施。我們在克服 2018 財年收購帶來的約 30 個基點壓力的同時，也實現了所有這些目標。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 18% to $4.35 and, in addition to our revenue and margin performance, was aided by a lower effective tax rate and fewer shares outstanding compared with a year ago. Our adjusted effective tax rate for the year was 26.1% and benefited from corporate tax reform.

經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長 18% 至 4.35 美元，除了收入和利潤率的提升外，還得益於與去年同期相比較低的實際稅率和較少的流通股。本年度調整後的實際稅率為 26.1%，受惠於企業稅制改革。

In addition to delivering this solid operating performance, we have paid about $1.1 billion in dividends and returned about $1 billion through share repurchases for fiscal year 2018.

除了取得如此穩健的經營業績外，我們在 2018 財年還支付了約 11 億美元的股息，並透過股票回購返還了約 10 億美元。

Let me now take you through our segment results. In our Employer Services segment, revenues grew 5% for the year, 4% organic constant currency, in line with expectations. Our same-store pays per control metric in the U.S. grew 2.7% for the fiscal year. Average client fund balances grew 6% compared to a year ago. This growth was driven by a combination of wage inflation and growth on our pays per control, offset by pressure from lower state unemployment, insurance collections and corporate tax reform.

現在讓我帶您了解我們各細分市場的表現。在我們的雇主服務部門，全年收入成長了 5%，以固定匯率計算的有機成長為 4%，符合預期。本財年，我們在美國同店每一個控制點支付指標成長了 2.7%。與去年同期相比，客戶平均資金餘額增加了 6%。這一增長是由工資上漲和人均工資增長共同推動的，但被州失業率下降、保險費上漲和企業稅制改革帶來的壓力所抵消。

Outside the North America, our solutions have continued to perform well, largely helped by the continued strong performance of our multinational solutions, which serve businesses of all sizes.

在北美以外地區，我們的解決方案持續表現良好，這主要得益於我們服務於各種規模企業的跨國解決方案的持續強勁表現。

Employer Services margin increased about 10 points for the fiscal year and included approximately 40 basis points of pressure from the impact of acquisitions.

雇主服務利潤率在本財年增加了約 10 個百分點，其中包括收購帶來的約 40 個基點的壓力。

PEO revenues grew 12% for the year with average worksite employees growing 9% to 504,000 employees. Following the slowdown last quarter in the 50-employee and above market, we were pleased to see some recovery in our PEO new business bookings, as we started to take certain actions during the fourth quarter. The PEO segment margins increased 10 basis points for the year.

PEO 收入全年成長 12%，平均工作場所員工人數成長 9%，達到 504,000 人。繼上季度 50 名及以上員工市場放緩之後，我們很高興地看到，隨著我們在第四季度開始採取一些措施，我們的 PEO 新業務預訂量有所回升。PEO業務部門利潤率本年度成長了10個基點。

Overall, we generated significant momentum over the course of the year. The actions that we are taking have helped us to expand our margins, leading to better-than-expected performance in fiscal year 2018, despite some incremental pressure from our recent acquisitions. And more importantly, we continue to make important investments into our business to set us up for the future.

總體而言，我們在這一年中取得了顯著的發展勢頭。我們採取的措施幫助我們擴大了利潤率，儘管最近的收購帶來了一些額外的壓力，但我們在 2018 財年的表現仍然優於預期。更重要的是，我們持續對業務進行重要投資，為未來發展做好準備。

Let us now move to our fiscal year 2019 outlook. As a reminder, my discussions of our results for fiscal year 2018 was on the same basis of accounting as our previous quarters. In contrast, our fiscal year 2019 outlook included -- includes the expected impacts of ASC 606 for both fiscal years 2019 and 2018 as well as the expected impact from certain other adjustments we outlined for you earlier. As you look to adjust your models, you should find all the necessary details in the appendix of our quarterly presentation and in our earnings release, which both are available on our Investor Relations website.

現在讓我們展望一下2019財年。再次提醒大家，我先前對 2018 財年業績的討論，是基於與前幾季相同的會計基礎。相較之下，我們 2019 財年的展望包括—包括 ASC 606 對 2019 財年和 2018 財年的預期影響，以及我們先前向您概述的某些其他調整的預期影響。當您需要調整模型時，您可以在我們的季度報告附錄和收益報告中找到所有必要的詳細信息，這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

With that said, I'll first provide our consolidated fiscal year 2019 outlook and then focus on the segments with some added color on the -- some of more new-onset changes.

綜上所述，我將首先提供我們 2019 財年的綜合展望，然後重點介紹各個業務板塊，並對其中一些新出現的變化進行更詳細的闡述。

We anticipate total revenue growth of 5% to 7% for fiscal year 2019. We expect adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 100 to 120 basis points, including approximately 20 basis points of pressure from acquisitions. And as you can see from this morning's press release and the appendix of our investor presentation, this margin expansion would have been about 30 basis points higher on an ASC 505 -- 605 basis. We expect an effective tax rate and adjusted effective tax rate of 25.1% in fiscal year 2019, as compared to our prior estimated adjusted effective tax rate of 25% to 26%. All of these drives anticipated growth of adjusted diluted earnings per share of 13% to 15% compared with the $4.53 in fiscal year 2018. Similar to our margin expansion, this growth would have been higher on ASC 50 -- 605 basis for about 2%.

我們預計 2019 財年總營收將成長 5% 至 7%。我們預計調整後 EBIT 利潤率將擴大 100 至 120 個基點，其中包括收購帶來的約 20 個基點的壓力。正如您從今天早上的新聞稿和我們投資者簡報的附錄中看到的那樣，如果按照 ASC 505 - 605 標準計算，這一利潤率擴張幅度將高出約 30 個基點。我們預計 2019 財年的實際稅率和調整後的實際稅率為 25.1%，而我們先前估計的調整後實際稅率為 25% 至 26%。所有這些因素共同推動調整後稀釋每股收益預計將成長 13% 至 15%，而 2018 財年為 4.53 美元。與我們的利潤率擴張類似，按照 ASC 50 - 605 準則，這一增長將更高，約為 2%。

Regarding shareholders distribution, as usual, it remains our intent to continue our return of excess cash to shareholders subject to market conditions.

關於股東分紅，我們將一如既往地根據市場狀況，繼續向股東返還多餘現金。

Now for some more detail on the segments. We expect 4% to 6% revenue growth on our Employer Services segment, which includes anticipated pays per control growth of about 2.5% and now benefits from growth in interest income at actual rates, reflecting one of the changes we made to our segment reporting. We expect Employer Services new business bookings growth of 6% to 8%, as we continue to build positive momentum from our investments and headcount, while driving improvements and productivity from our product and channel strategies. This new metric is specific to the Employer Services segment, and we hope that as you also use and -- the materials from our investor day that will help you with your models. You will recall that this is a shift from our prior worldwide new business bookings guidance, which included sales for the PEO segment. To further help you with your model, we have given you some historical quarterly growth comparison with -- in this morning's earnings schedules.

現在來詳細了解各個部分。我們預計雇主服務部門的收入成長將達到 4% 至 6%，其中包括預計每筆控制費用成長約 2.5%，並且現在受益於實際利率的利息收入成長，這反映了我們對部門報告所做的改變之一。我們預計雇主服務的新業務預訂將成長 6% 至 8%，因為我們將繼續從投資和人員配置中保持積極的發展勢頭，同時透過我們的產品和通路策略推動改進和提高生產力。這項新指標專門針對雇主服務部門，我們希望您在使用時也能參考我們投資者日提供的資料，這些資料將有助於您建立模型。您可能還記得，這與我們先前對全球新業務預訂的預期有所不同，先前的預期包括了 PEO 領域的銷售額。為了進一步幫助您完善模型，我們在今天早上的財報表中提供了一些歷史季度成長比較數據。

Let's now move to the Employer Services revenue retention. As Carlos mentioned, our Employer Services revenue retention for fiscal year 2018 was 90.4%. For fiscal year 2019, we are expecting our revenue retention to increase about 25 to 50 basis points compared to the 90.4%, driven, in part, by expected improvement in our mid and upmarket, supported by the completion of our mid-market migrations a few months ago.

接下來我們來看雇主服務收入留存狀況。正如卡洛斯所提到的，我們 2018 財年的雇主服務收入留存率為 90.4%。2019 財年，我們預期營收留存率將比 90.4% 提高約 25 至 50 個基點，部分原因是中高階市場預期改善，而這得益於幾個月前完成的中端市場遷移。

Since this is the first time we are guiding to retention, I'll provide a little extra color. We generally have several months of visibilities for clients leaving in the mid and upmarket and less direct visibility in the downmarket, as clients do not provide such much notice. In addition to this direct visibility, we look at trends in our NPS scores as a leading indicator and that helps us directionally anticipate where retention is heading. Also because our service teams work closely with our clients, we monitor various other metrics and operating statistics that we try to leverage when forecasting our anticipated losses.

由於這是我們第一次留存指導，我將提供一些額外的細節。對於中高端市場的搬遷客戶，我們通常有幾個月的可見性；而對於低端市場的搬遷客戶，可見性則不太直接，因為客戶不會提前這麼長時間通知。除了這種直接的可見性之外，我們還關注 NPS 分數的趨勢，將其作為領先指標，這有助於我們預測用戶留存率的發展方向。此外，由於我們的服務團隊與客戶密切合作，我們會監控各種其他指標和營運統計數據，並在預測預期損失時嘗試利用這些指標和統計數據。

Lastly, there is some mixed impact to retention, over time, as our different products can have very different retention rates because of the market segment characteristics. And so we've taken to account our anticipated revenue growth in these various offerings. All this is to say that we have generally some visibility on where retention will end up for the year, but given the breadth of markets and clients that we serve, certain factors can ultimately move the needle, particularly the timing of larger losses.

最後，隨著時間的推移，產品留存率會受到一些複雜的影響，因為不同的產品由於市場區隔特點，其留存率可能會大相逕庭。因此，我們已將這些不同產品/服務的預期收入成長納入考量。總而言之，我們大致可以預見今年的客戶留存率最終會達到什麼水平，但考慮到我們服務的市場和客戶的廣泛性，某些因素最終可能會影響最終結果，尤其是較大損失發生的時間。

We expect margin in our ES segment to expand by 150 to 175 basis points, inclusive of 30 basis points of acquisition drag. And by the way, of comparison, the impact of adopting ASC 606 to our ES margin expansion exceeds the 30 basis points impact on the ADP's consolidated margin expansion. Our margin continues to benefit from a combination of operating leverage as well as some of the discrete initiatives that we spoke about at our investor day. For example, our voluntary early retirement program will be a key contributor this year and as we expect minimal dual-operation expenses related to our Service Alignment Initiatives in fiscal year 2019.

我們預計 ES 業務部門的利潤率將成長 150 至 175 個基點，其中包括 30 個基點的收購拖累。順便一提，相較之下，採用 ASC 606 對我們 ES 利潤率擴張的影響超過了對 ADP 合併利潤率擴張的 30 個基點的影響。我們的利潤率繼續受益於經營槓桿以及我們在投資者日上談到的一些具體舉措。例如，我們的自願提早退休計畫將是今年的主要貢獻者，而且我們預計 2019 財年與我們的服務調整計畫相關的雙重營運費用將降至最低。

With that said, let's now touch on the PEO, which also includes a number of moving pieces. We expect 7% to 9% PEO revenue growth in fiscal year 2019, driven by 7% to 8% growth in average worksite employees. As Carlos mentioned, we saw progress in our PEO bookings this quarter, and we have continued to make certain additional targeted adjustment to our PEO distribution process. We believe this will help drive a gradual reacceleration and worksite employee growth. We also anticipate 5% to 7% growth in PEO revenues, excluding 0 margin health care benefit pass-throughs. This, too, is a new revenue disclosure that we discussed at our investor day. And I want to remind you that it does include revenues from workers' compensation and state unemployment insurance premiums.

綜上所述，我們現在來談談 PEO，它也包含許多動態部分。我們預計 2019 財年 PEO 營收將成長 7% 至 9%，主要得益於職場員工平均成長 7% 至 8%。正如 Carlos 所提到的，本季度我們的 PEO 預訂量有所增長，我們也一直在對 PEO 分銷流程進行一些額外的有針對性的調整。我們相信這將有助於推動經濟逐步復甦和工作場所員工成長。我們也預期 PEO 收入將成長 5% 至 7%，不包括利潤率為 0% 的醫療保健福利轉嫁。這也是我們在投資者日上討論過的一種新的收入揭露方式。我還要提醒各位，這其中也包括工傷賠償金和州失業保險費的收入。

As you might infer from our guidance, we expect some drag next year from lower workers' compensation and SUI rates, which impacts our revenue, but is ultimately a positive development for our clients and for our PEO prospects.

正如您可能從我們的指導方針中推斷出的那樣，我們預計明年工傷賠償和失業保險費率的下降會對我們的收入造成一定影響，但這最終對我們的客戶和我們的 PEO 前景來說是一個積極的發展。

For PEO margin, we expect 75 to 50 basis points of margin decrease. Among the changes we made to our segments is the inclusion of ADP Indemnity into the PEO segment earnings, which, we believe, enhances our disclosures. As a reminder, ADP Indemnity is our captive workers' compensation insurer, and there's also of which used to be accounted for in the other segment. Including Indemnity into the PEO segment adds no revenues, but does impact margins. ADP Indemnity uses a third-party actual rate to assist with the loss reserve estimation process. And changes in the assessment of workers' compensation loss reserves may, at times, introduce a little bit of noise to the PEO margins now that it is included in our segment results.

對於 PEO 利潤率，我們預計利潤率將下降 75 至 50 個基點。我們對業務板塊的一些調整包括將 ADP Indemnity 納入 PEO 板塊的收益，我們認為這可以增強我們的資訊揭露。提醒一下，ADP Indemnity 是我們的專屬工傷賠償保險公司，其中一部分以前也計入其他部分。將賠償業務納入 PEO 業務板塊不會增加收入，但會影響利潤率。ADP Indemnity 使用第三方實際費率來協助進行損失準備金估算過程。而現在，由於工傷賠償損失準備金的評估變化已納入我們的分部業績，因此，有時可能會為 PEO 利潤率帶來一些波動。

More specifically, as we regularly adjust our loss reserve estimates, we have realized some P&L benefits over last few years, including fiscal year 2018. However, we typically do not forecast any material change to these reserves going into a fiscal year. And as a result, for fiscal year 2019, these results in more than 75 basis points of anticipated grow overpressure for the PEO segment margins. Excluding this grow overpressure, we would have otherwise expect to -- our margins to be slightly positive.

更具體地說，隨著我們定期調整損失準備金估計，我們在過去幾年（包括 2018 財年）實現了損益的一些收益。然而，我們通常不會預測這些儲備金在進入財政年度後會發生任何實質變化。因此，在 2019 財年，這些因素導致 PEO 業務部門的利潤率預期成長面臨超過 75 個基點的壓力。撇開這種成長超負荷不談，我們原本預期──我們的利潤率會略微為正。

Moving on to the remainder of our outlook. We expect interest on client funds to increase approximately $80 million to $90 million, driven by higher rates and anticipated client fund balance growth of 3% to 4%. We expect our total impact from the client funds extended investment strategy to be up about $60 million to $70 million. The details of this forecast can be found on the supplemental slides on our Investor Relations website.

接下來，我們繼續探討其餘的展望。我們預計，受利率上升和客戶資金餘額預計將增加 3% 至 4% 的推動，客戶資金利息將增加約 8,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元。我們預計客戶資金擴展投資策略的總影響將增加約 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。此預測的詳細內容可在我們投資者關係網站的補充幻燈片中找到。

Overall, I think you can tell we are happy with our performance and with the momentum that we are building from our investments in the business. At our investor day, we set margin and EPS target ranges throughout fiscal year 2021, and we will continue to execute towards these goals with fiscal year '19 being a step in the right direction.

總的來說，我認為大家可以看出我們對自身的業績以及透過對業務的投資所取得的進展感到滿意。在投資者日上，我們設定了 2021 財年的利潤率和每股盈餘目標範圍，我們將繼續朝著這些目標努力，而 2019 財年是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。

So with that, I will turn it over to the operator to take your questions.

那麼，接下來我將把發言權交給接線員，由他來回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from the line of Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們將接受來自高盛集團的吉姆·施耐德提出的第一個問題。

I was wondering if you could maybe comment on the retention decline you saw in the quarter. Clearly, as you got to the end of the mid-market transition, we would have expected some impact there. But can you maybe point out other areas of the business that might have seen a little bit of pressure there? Or was it purely in the mid-market ES part?

我想請您談談本季客戶留存率下降的情況。顯然，隨著中端市場轉型期的結束，我們預期會受到一些影響。但您能否指出公司其他一些可能感受到壓力的領域呢？還是它僅僅屬於中階市場ES部分？

We actually had -- so I think our -- we feel still pretty good about our momentum when you look across the different businesses with retention and you look at our client satisfaction scores. As usual, there was some noise from a couple of large losses, so we did have, in particular, a large loss in our -- what we call our comp solutions business, which really provides standalone services. So there was a company that we're providing standalone services to that was a relatively large revenue loss and that had an impact on the numbers. So I guess, the -- It's the old story that happens every several quarters that we have 1 or 2 large losses that may move the needle, and I think that's what happened this quarter. But we still feel pretty good. In full transparency, our mid-market retention actually was pretty good and it's because we did finish the migration. So even though we had some losses towards the end of the migrations, there were still -- in relation to the size of the business, there were few enough left that even though we lost some at the end, we still now are seeing what we were hoping to see, which is our strategic platform has higher retention rates. And as the amount of business on the old platform goes to 0, you see the math just works in your favor. And so I think we have nothing but positive things to report about our mid-market retention in the fourth quarter.

實際上，我們——所以我認為——當你縱觀各個業務的客戶留存率和客戶滿意度評分時，我們仍然對我們的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。像往常一樣，幾筆大筆虧損引起了一些關注，特別是我們的——我們稱之為賠償解決方案業務的——出現了大額虧損，該業務實際上提供獨立服務。所以，我們向一家公司提供獨立服務，導致該公司收入損失較大，這對業績數據產生了影響。所以我想，這又是老生常談了，每隔幾季就會出現一兩筆巨額虧損，這可能會對業績產生影響，我認為本季就是這種情況。但我們感覺還不錯。坦白說，我們的中端市場客戶留存率其實相當不錯，這是因為我們完成了遷移。因此，儘管在遷移後期我們有一些損失，但相對於業務規模而言，剩餘的損失仍然很少，所以即使我們在最後損失了一些，我們現在仍然看到了我們希望看到的結果，那就是我們的戰略平台擁有更高的留存率。當舊平台上的業務量降至 0 時，你會發現數學結果對你非常有利。因此，我認為我們在第四季度中端市場客戶留存方面只有積極的進展可以報告。

That's helpful color. And then maybe looking forward, in terms of the new business bookings outlook, can you maybe talk about some of the products where you're seeing the most traction? And specifically, as we think about the cadence of bookings to the year, is it fair to say there's a little bit more waiting in the first half of the year versus the second half of the year relative to your outlook? Or any color on that will be helpful.

這是個很有幫助的顏色。展望未來，就新的業務預訂前景而言，您能否談談您認為哪些產品最受歡迎？具體來說，當我們考慮全年的預訂節奏時，根據您的預期，是否可以說上半年的等待時間比下半年要長一些？或用任何顏色來標記都會有幫助。

I can take the sales outlook. As we indicated, the momentum that we experienced on new business bookings for the fourth quarter was very broad-based, really, across all market segments and good momentum for a lot of products. So the overall forecast that we have for our Salesforce continues to be that all business units will experience good growth, solid healthy growth, maybe a little bit more strength in the downmarket. But overall, I would say, a very balanced portfolio. And we do have a little bit of selling season, but the quarters are actually fairly balanced. It's like different market segments have different selling seasons. And we experience, at times, at the year-end, a big push towards the end, which has to do with our incentive systems, I believe. But nothing unusual relative to our sales distribution effort. But we're feeling really good. Well staffed. Salesforce was excited about the core products and is excited about the product additions that we have brought through acquisitions to the table. So it's -- we're confident about sales.

我可以預測銷售前景。正如我們所指出的，第四季度新業務預訂的成長勢頭非常廣泛，涵蓋所有市場領域，許多產品的成長勢頭良好。因此，我們對 Salesforce 的整體預測仍然是，所有業務部門都將實現良好成長，並穩健成長，在市場低迷時期可能會表現得更強勁。但總的來說，我認為這是一個非常均衡的投資組合。我們確實會有一些銷售旺季，但實際上各季度的銷售情況都相當平衡。就像不同的細分市場有不同的銷售旺季。有時，在年底，我們會經歷一股強大的衝刺勢頭，我認為這與我們的激勵機制有關。但就我們的銷售分銷工作而言，這並沒有什麼不尋常之處。但我們感覺非常好。人員配備充足。Salesforce 對核心產品感到興奮，也對我們透過收購帶來的新產品感到興奮。所以——我們對銷售充滿信心。

Yes. Adding just to Jan's comment, the -- I always worry when we have the strong finish, as Jan was alluding to. We typically have incentives to drive very strong performance towards the end. That tends to happen to be magnified when you already are having a very strong year. And I think we had definitely a good year. But as you know, the first half was still a challenge for us. It was really in the third quarter where we really kind of picked up the momentum. And then in the fourth quarter, that momentum accelerated. So we did have a strong finish. I think people were racing towards those accelerators. But again, this is more art and science in terms of trying to get a feel for kind of where we are. But I would echo Jan's comment that we're feeling pretty good, at least, for about to start. The momentum carrying into the first quarter is, I think, good.

是的。補充 Jan 的評論——我總是擔心我們取得強勢收尾的情況，就像 Jan 所暗示的那樣。我們通常會有激勵措施來推動賽季末非常優異的業績。如果你今年的業績已經非常出色，這種情況往往會被放大。我認為我們這一年過得相當不錯。但正如你所知，上半程對我們來說仍然是一個挑戰。真正開始發力是在第三節。到了第四季度，這種勢頭加速了。所以我們最後階段表現很出色。我認為人們當時都在爭先恐後地衝向那些加速器。但話說回來，這更多的是藝術和科學的結合，目的是去感受我們所處的位置。但我同意 Jan 的說法，至少就即將開始而言，我們感覺相當不錯。我認為，這種勢頭延續到第一季是件好事。

You're next question is from David Togut of Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Could you talk about some of the initiatives in the PEO business to accelerate lead flow and bookings growth? And then in connection with that, what do you see as the main drivers for the weakness in the first place? Is it more of a competitive issue? Or are all of these within your own control?

您能否談談 PEO 業務中為加速潛在客戶轉換和訂單成長所採取的一些舉措？那麼，就此而言，您認為造成這種弱點的主要原因是什麼？這更多的是競爭問題嗎？或者，這一切都在你的掌控之中？

We looked at the balance of trade numbers to really see if there's any kind of competitive issues and we didn't see anything there throughout the whole year. So we then -- I think it was probably right after the first half started looking back to see if there's something typically when you don't see any issues that are competitive or the economy or otherwise. There's usually, in my experience at ADP and taught to me by my predecessors, is there's usually something around our incentives internally because, as you know, whether it's in the PEO or other parts of our business, our incentives are quite aligned to drive business to our most profitable highest revenue sources, which are the PEO. And we get, I think it's about 50% of our business from internally generated leads. So that system of incentives and lead flow is very, very important. And we did make some changes that, I'm ashamed to say, I wasn't 100% aware of that, I think, would have created a destruction, let's just say, to lead flow, particularly for mid-market clients into the PEO. So we readjusted those incentives, I believe, it was in the third quarter of -- towards the end of the third quarter of this fiscal year, and we already saw, in the fourth quarter, double-digit growth in bookings in the PEO. And we don't want to split it in terms of how much was upmarket and downmarket. But we had -- suffice to say, we had strong double-digit sales growth and bookings growth in the PEO, and the mid-market contributed to that without getting too specific.

我們查看了貿易平衡數據，以了解是否存在任何競爭問題，結果發現全年都沒有出現任何問題。所以，我想大概是在上半場結束後，我們開始回顧過去，看看是否存在一些問題，通常是在看不到任何競爭、經濟或其他方面的問題時。根據我在 ADP 的經驗以及我的前任們的教導，通常情況下，我們的內部激勵機制都會存在一些問題，因為正如您所知，無論是在 PEO 還是我們業務的其他部門，我們的激勵機制都非常一致地旨在推動業務流向我們利潤最高、收入最高的來源，也就是 PEO。我認為我們大約 50% 的業務都來自內部產生的潛在客戶。因此，這種激勵機制和顧客線索分配方式非常非常重要。我們確實做出了一些改變，很慚愧地說，我當時並沒有完全意識到，我認為這些改變會對潛在客戶的流動造成破壞，特別是對 PEO 的中端市場客戶而言。因此，我們調整了這些激勵措施，我相信是在本財年的第三季末，在第四季度，我們已經看到 PEO 的預訂量實現了兩位數的成長。我們不想根據高端和低端市場的比例來劃分它。但總而言之，我們在 PEO 業務方面實現了強勁的兩位數銷售成長和預訂成長，中端市場對此做出了貢獻，這裡就不贅述了。

Maybe David, one other point there is that the unit growth of new business bookings into the PEO, actually, accelerated meaningfully. And it was in the high double digits, in the high teens and -- which means we had really an overall acceleration of -- which bodes well for competitiveness. It just happened to be that we had to fix this mid-market situation. So that bodes, I think, overall well.

或許大衛，還有一點需要指出，PEO 新業務預訂的單位成長實際上已經顯著加快。而且增幅高達兩位數，接近十幾數——這意味著我們整體增速確實加快了——這對競爭力來說是個好兆頭。我們恰好需要解決這個中階市場的問題。所以我覺得，整體來說，這預示著好兆頭。

I think Jan's comment about double-digit unit growth is for the full year. It's an addition to my comment about the fourth quarter. I think it's another triangulation to get to the conclusion right now. Our conclusion is that there is no competitive issue.

我認為 Jan 所說的兩位數單位成長是指全年成長。這是對我關於第四季度評論的補充。我認為現在需要透過另一種三角測量法才能得出結論。我們的結論是，不存在競爭問題。

Understood. And just a quick follow-up. What is your expectation for FY '19 in the PEO for workers' compensation reserve treatment? I mean, would you expect reserves to go up, to go down? And what impact on earnings will that have versus what you saw in FY '18?

明白了。還有一個後續問題。您對 2019 財政年度 PEO 在工傷賠償準備處理方面的預期為何？我的意思是，你覺得儲備金會上升還是下降？與 2018 財年相比，這將對收益產生什麼影響？

So a couple of -- just points in terms of -- from a historical perspective. We started using reinsurance. As you know, we disclosed all this in our 10-K. So the amount of reserves we have is related to years back between, I believe, it's 2004 and 2012, if I'm not mistaken, or '13. From that point forward, we have less volatility even then -- even though there is a -- some risk sharing color, if you will, but it's very relatively limited. So this issue about reserves is historical. But we have seen, fortunately, overall, positive development in the last several years. And so this is not the first year in '18 where we've had a benefit from, what we would call, release of reserves, if you will. Now some of that is related to possibly the economy. It could be related to health care. There's a lot of things that go in workers' compensation as a long-tail insurance. And so there is quite a bit of volatility in those numbers themselves. But we've consistently, over the last 4 years, had benefits, if you will. In '18, it was a particularly large benefit, which is why Jan was, in his comments, explaining that we have a grow-over issue. We don't -- as you can imagine, we can't plan for the release of workers' compensation reserves because that have -- has to do with actuarial work that gets done -- it's actually gets done on a quarterly basis, and we adjust those reserves on a quarterly basis. But if we continue to have favorable loss development, which it will cause us the release of these reserves, we should have some benefit in '19. We just don't believe that it could be as large as it was in '19 and don't, at least, have that planned currently.

所以，從歷史角度來看，有幾點需要說明。我們開始使用再保險。如您所知，我們在 10-K 文件中披露了所有這些內容。所以，我們擁有的儲備量與幾年前有關，我相信，應該是 2004 年至 2012 年，如果我沒記錯的話，或者 2013 年。從那以後，波動性會降低——即使存在一些風險分擔，但相對而言非常有限。所以，關於儲備金的問題已經是歷史遺留問題了。但令人欣慰的是，近幾年來，總體上我們看到了積極的發展。所以，這並非 2018 年我們第一次受益於所謂的「儲備金釋放」。其中一些可能與經濟有關。這可能與醫療保健有關。工傷賠償作為長期保險，涵蓋了許多方面。因此，這些數字本身就存在相當大的波動性。但從過去四年來看，我們一直都從中受益。2018 年，這是一個特別大的好處，所以 Jan 在他的評論中解釋說，我們遇到了增長過度的問題。正如您所想，我們無法計劃釋放工傷賠償準備金，因為這與精算工作有關——實際上是按季度進行的，我們按季度調整這些準備金。但是，如果我們繼續保持有利的虧損發展態勢，這將導致這些儲備的釋放，那麼我們在 2019 年應該會獲得一些收益。我們認為它不可能像 2019 年那樣規模龐大，至少目前我們還沒有這樣的計畫。

Just a quick final one. What was the EPS benefit in 2018 from the reserve release?

最後再補充一個。2018 年，釋放儲備金為每股盈餘帶來了多少收益？

It's really not that -- it's not significant enough to -- we have lots of other things that of similar size, like, for example, we -- that go in the other direction. So we had acquisition drag. We had -- our migrations expense went up by almost $20 million for the year. So the issue is that since we have segment reporting, we're giving you margins at the segment level, and we're increasing our disclosure. We're just giving you a lot of extra color, but we weren't trying to imply that we made our numbers or that our EPS was driven by the reserves. It just happens to be that because of the size of the PEO, when you exclude pass-throughs in the PEO and you look at that margin, it's a large business, but the release of those reserves, I think, can impact those margins from quarter to quarter and from a -- and from year to year. But you shouldn't read -- don't read anything more into it other than at the segment level, which is where we're trying to give you color on.

其實並不是這樣——它並不重要——我們還有很多其他類似規模的事物，例如，我們——朝著相反的方向發展。所以我們遇到了收購拖累。我們的移民支出這一年增加了近 2000 萬美元。所以問題在於，由於我們有了分部報告，我們會在分部層級提供利潤率，我們會增加資訊揭露。我們只是給你補充了一些細節，但我們並不是想暗示我們實現了目標，或者我們的每股盈餘是由儲量推動的。恰好是因為 PEO 的規模，當你排除 PEO 中的轉嫁費用並查看利潤率時，你會發現這是一個很大的業務，但我認為，這些儲備金的釋放可能會對季度和年度的利潤率產生影響。但你不應該過度解讀——除了段落層面之外，不要做任何其他解讀，而這正是我們試圖為你呈現細節的地方。

Our next question is from Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

I just wanted to come back on PEO because it seems like for fiscal '19, that's where there is some delta between what the Street was looking for and what you're guiding to. So there's some deceleration baked in here, obviously, relative to fiscal '18 growth levels. Can you just walk us through the pieces there because your qualitative commentary actually sounds more upbeat in terms of some of the new found bookings momentum in PEO, but obviously, the revenue guide, the 7% to 9%? So just explain to us the pieces of deceleration that seemed to be embedded in the guide there.

我只是想再談談 PEO，因為看起來在 2019 財年，華爾街的預期和你們的預期之間存在一些差距。所以很明顯，相對於 2018 財年的成長水平，這裡已經包含了一定的成長放緩。您能給我們詳細解釋一下其中的各個部分嗎？因為就 PEO 領域新發現的預訂動能而言，您的定性評論聽起來確實更加樂觀，但顯然，收入指導方針是 7% 到 9%？所以請您解釋一下指南中似乎包含的減速部分。

Well, I think there are a couple of different pieces. One is the momentum in terms of worksite -- underlying worksite employee growth, which, I think, we've been talking about it for the last -- we talked about it the last quarter. I think it was also a focus item. You guys had questions about it then. And again, no different than the rest of our recurring revenue businesses. If we believe that -- and we do believe that we're optimistic about next year around new business bookings and retention. It's not something that turns around in July or in August. It's a gradual back -- lift back up over the course of the year. So I think some of it is just the core slowdown in worksite employee growth, which has gone from somewhere in the low teens to 9%, I think, is what we just said we ended the year. So that's one factor. And then the other factor, which is actually more significant if you're focused on top line growth, which I would be careful about doing in the PEO, is what happens with pass-throughs. And so as Jan was alluding to, we have an issue with workers' compensation and SUI rates coming down, which is, frankly, a huge positive for us. From a selling standpoint, it's a positive for our clients. it's a positive for retention, but that puts pressure on revenues. And then the biggest factor, really, is benefits. When you look at top line overall revenue in the PEO, we've had years, particularly as ACA was starting to kick in, in the early years of the Affordable Care Act, we had higher participation rates and benefits. So you had not only inflation of benefit rates, but you had higher participation of benefits. And by participation, we mean the number of worksite employees, the percentage of worksite employees taking benefits. So that was adding and actually putting downward pressure on margins because it was putting upward pressure on revenue growth. We now have the opposite effect, which is lower participation on benefits plans. It's been a trend that's been in place for -- it feels like 6 to -- 6 or so quarters and watching it quarterly. We think that it probably has something to do with ACA because you had people kind of first gearing up for ACA and then you had implementation of ACA and although, technically, many of the rules haven't changed around ACA, it has been -- some of it has been defanged, and you're getting, I think, the outcome that you would expect if you are taking away laws and rules that encourage or force people to have benefits coverage. And so we are seeing -- again, this is not a dramatic drop in benefits participation, but it's enough to pressure the revenue component of overall PEO revenues, which is the largest component of total revenue.

嗯，我認為這裡包含幾個不同的部分。一是工作場所的發展勢頭——工作場所員工成長的勢頭，我認為，我們上個季度一直在討論這個問題。我認為這也是重點關注事項之一。當時你們還對此有疑問。再次強調，這與我們其他經常性收入業務並無不同。如果我們相信這一點——而且我們確實相信這一點——我們對明年的新業務預訂和客戶留存情況持樂觀態度。這不是七、八月就能好轉的事。這是一個循序漸進的過程——在一年內逐步恢復。所以我認為部分原因是工作場所員工成長的核心放緩，已經從十幾個百分點降至 9%，我想，這是我們在年底所說的數字。這是其中一個因素。另一個因素，如果你專注於營收成長，那麼這個因素實際上更為重要（在 PEO 中，我會謹慎地這樣做），那就是轉嫁費用會發生什麼變化。正如 Jan 所暗示的那樣，我們面臨著工傷賠償和失業保險費率下降的問題，坦白說，這對我們來說是一個巨大的利好。從銷售角度來看，這對我們的客戶來說是件好事。這對用戶留存來說是件好事，但這會對收入造成壓力。而真正最重要的因素，還是福利。從 PEO 的總收入來看，多年來，尤其是在 ACA 開始生效的早期，我們的參與率和福祉都更高。所以不僅福利金上漲了，福利金領取率也提高了。參與度指的是工作場所員工人數，以及享有福利的工作場所員工百分比。所以，這實際上給利潤率帶來了下行壓力，因為它給收入成長帶來了上行壓力。現在的情況恰恰相反，福利計劃的參與率下降了。這種趨勢已經持續了大約 6 到 6 個季度，我們每個季度都在觀察它。我們認為這可能與《平價醫療法案》(ACA) 有關，因為人們先是為ACA做準備，然後ACA實施了，雖然從技術上講，ACA的許多規則並沒有改變，但有些規則已經被削弱了，我認為，如果你取消那些鼓勵或強制人們獲得福利保障的法律和規則，就會得到預期的結果。因此我們看到——雖然福利參與率並沒有大幅下降，但這足以對 PEO 整體收入中的收入部分造成壓力，而這部分收入是總收入中最大的組成部分。

Okay. So that's helpful. Just to switch gears to the EPS growth outlook for fiscal '19. So we're talking about 13% to 15%. It sounds like ASC 606 cost you 2 points. So we're really looking at 15% to 17% if we were in an ASC 605 world. And so I'm just looking at that 15% to 17% relative to the 16% to 19% CAGR from the analyst day. Do we need to kind of recast that 16% to 19% in an ASC 606 context because I think a lot of people are just trying to think about this apples-to-apples versus we were living in the 605 world at the time of analyst day, but now you're obviously living in the 606 world?

好的。那很有幫助。讓我們換個話題，談談 2019 財年的每股盈餘成長前景。所以我們說的是13%到15%。聽起來 ASC 606 讓你丟了 2 分。所以，如果我們採用 ASC 605 標準，那麼實際比例應該在 15% 到 17% 之間。因此，我只是在關注 15% 到 17% 相對於分析師日公佈的 16% 到 19% 的複合年增長率 (CAGR) 的情況。我們是否需要將 16% 到 19% 的資料放到 ASC 606 的背景下重新表達？因為我認為很多人都在試圖進行公平的比較，而我們在分析師日時還處於 ASC 605 的框架下，但現在顯然已經進入了 ASC 606 的框架下。

Yes. Let me -- I'll have Jan touch on that in a second. But I should have finished my PEO thought because you're -- I don't think I completed the answer to your question. I think that the reason we remain bullish after everything I just said about benefits, I'm trying to give you a color and explain kind of what's happening in the revenue growth numbers and in the noise. But in the PEO, the most important thing for us in the PEO is profit per employee, and that is something that we continue to see reasonable growth in. And so the noise around margins and around pass-through revenue growth is just not really the right way to look at value creation because as we now answer your question about EPS, the most important thing for us is contribution to EPS. So the only place we were unhappy about the PEO is that we had a slight deceleration in worksite employee growth, which, obviously, leaves a slight decrease in overall growth in profit, assuming all other things being equal. So that -- that's a fair issue that's related really to our net new business, that's the bookings and retention, which we feel better about now going into the new year. But all the other stuff is just noise. And I think the real important thing is to remember that every time we move the client to the PEO or a worksite employee onto the PEO from a pay, it adds profit to the company. And so we have an incentive -- we're having incentive to do that as much as possible.

是的。讓我——我馬上讓 Jan 談談這個問題。但我應該把我關於PEO的想法說完，因為你──我覺得我還沒完全回答你的問題。我認為，在我剛才談到所有好處之後，我們仍然看好市場的原因，是我想給你一些啟發，解釋一下收入成長數據和各種幹擾因素背後的原因。但對 PEO 而言，我們最重視的是每位員工的利潤，而我們也一直在看到這方面取得合理的成長。因此，圍繞利潤率和轉嫁收入成長的噪音並不是看待價值創造的正確方式，因為正如我們現在回答您關於每股盈餘的問題時，對我們來說最重要的是對每股盈餘的貢獻。因此，我們對 PEO 唯一不滿的地方是，工作場所員工成長略有放緩，這顯然導致整體利潤成長略有下降，假設其他條件相同的話。所以，這是一個合理的問題，它確實與我們的新業務淨增長有關，也就是預訂量和客戶留存率，我們對進入新的一年充滿信心。但其他的一切都只是噪音。我認為真正重要的是要記住，每次我們將客戶轉移到 PEO 或將工作場所員工從一家公司轉移到 PEO 時，都會為公司增加利潤。因此，我們有動力盡可能地這樣做。

So relative to the impact of 605 and 606 to our medium-term expectations regarding EPS, so as you can deduct from our disclosures, the impact of 606 in fiscal year '18 was a little bit higher than we had initially anticipated and is a little bit higher also, I think, in '19 actually. But we have no outlook relative to its impact that changed compared to our investor day schedule that we provided for the outer years. So what that means is we finished '18 a little bit ahead of our own expectation, so we have really terrific momentum going on. And we feel '19 is exactly in -- is in line and contributing to our overall goals. So we're not really changing our expectations for the medium run.

因此，就 605 和 606 對我們中期 EPS 預期的影響而言，正如您可以從我們的披露中推斷出的那樣，606 在 2018 財年的影響比我們最初預期的要高一些，而且我認為，實際上在 2019 年的影響也略高一些。但與我們往年提供的投資者日安排相比，我們目前還沒有任何關於其影響變化的展望。這意味著我們在 2018 年的成績比我們自己的預期略好一些，所以我們目前勢頭非常強勁。我們認為 2019 年正符合我們的整體目標，並為此做出了貢獻。所以我們並沒有真正改變對中期前景的預期。

Yes. I would say, if anything, we feel, like, the finish we had for '18 gives us a lot of confidence about the momentum we have to be able to deliver on the commitments that we outlined at investor day. So I think the answer would be absolutely not that I think we feel actually better. And I realize that the guidance and the discussions we had were about '19 through '21. But when you finish '18 ahead of where you thought you were going to finish, we would like to get a little bit of credit for that because what we're trying to get to is higher overall margins, higher overall profit, higher overall EPS. And I think whether it happens in '18 or '19 or in '20 or '21, those are all good things for us.

是的。我想說，如果有什麼變化的話，那就是我們感覺，2018 年的收官表現讓我們對我們擁有的勢頭充滿信心，相信我們能夠兌現我們在投資者日上提出的承諾。所以我認為答案絕對不是，我們感覺實際上更好了。我意識到，我們得到的指導和討論都是關於 2019 年到 2021 年的。但是，如果你在 2018 年的最終成績超過了你預期的成績，我們希望能夠獲得一些認可，因為我們努力的目標是更高的整體利潤率、更高的整體利潤、更高的整體每股收益。我認為，無論是在 2018 年、2019 年、2020 年或 2021 年發生，對我們來說都是好事。

Yes, I agree. Clearly, absolute levels of EPS are being guided above The Street, so kudos to you guys on that.

是的，我同意。顯然，每股盈餘的絕對水準高於華爾街的預期，所以你們在這方面做得很好。

Our next question is from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just wanted to ask a little bit about the top line guidance. Employee Services at 4% to 6%. I know it's been running about -- Employer Services has been running about 4% organic. What's the path there to push it up towards the higher end? I think acquisitions and FX probably cancel each other out. So just thinking about what would cause the push towards 6%.

我想問一下關於業績指引方面的問題。員工服務佔 4% 至 6%。我知道它一直在運作——雇主服務部門的自然成長率約為 4%。如何才能將其推向更高水平？我認為收購和外匯交易可能會相互抵銷。所以，我一直在思考是什麼因素會導致這個比例達到 6%。

So one of the things that is helping, which is, obviously, the positive is we clearly see what appears to be -- because of the recurring revenue nature of our business, when you have the challenges like we had with retention and new business bookings, it causes a lot of pressure on the core growth of -- on an organic basis, whether it's Employer Services or the PEO. We now -- I would say that the middle of fiscal year '18, it appears to be the trough. Certainly, as of today, it's the trough. You just -- you don't know a year from now, when you look back, if that will be accurate. But today, it looks like the trough. And so we see clear acceleration of our -- the net of our new business -- what we call a net new business, which is the difference between our starts that result from sales and our losses. And so part of the acceleration in Employer Services is about -- around 0.5 point, if you will, of acceleration, which is in our world is good. I mean, when you -- when I look back to '12, '13, '14, '15, kind of shortly after I became CEO, we had really great momentum around bookings like we have now. We had good retention, which we have now. And we added between 0.5 point to 1 point of core growth, if you will, to the business. So that's my hope now for the next 2 or 3 years. And I think '19 is the first year where we have that baked into the plan because we have the good bookings and we have, I think, a small improvement in retention also planned as well. I think Jan actually, when he talked about retention, he'd mentioned something about 2018 and '19. So 2018 retention was 90.4%. And we're expecting a 20 to 25 basis point improvement over that in '19. So I'm sorry. That was -- that's one of the factors. We also did include -- we are including our interest income, our client fund interest income now as part of the Employer Services segment. And as you know, that's improving and growing. And so that's helping probably 0.5 point as well -- 0.5 to 0.75 points, so and I think that's how you get to the numbers you're asking about.

因此，其中一個有幫助的因素，顯然也是積極的方面，是我們清楚地看到——由於我們業務的經常性收入性質，當遇到像我們之前在客戶留存和新業務預訂方面遇到的挑戰時，這會對核心增長（無論是雇主服務還是 PEO）的有機增長造成很大的壓力。現在——我認為 2018 財年中期，似乎是低谷期。當然，就目前而言，它正處於低谷。你根本無法知道一年後當你回首往事時，這是否準確。但如今，它看起來像個低谷。因此，我們看到我們的淨新業務（即銷售帶來的新業務與虧損之間的差額）明顯加速成長。因此，雇主服務加速發展的部分原因是——如果你願意的話，大約加速了 0.5 個百分點，這在我們看來是件好事。我的意思是，當我回顧 2012、2013、2014、2015 年，也就是我擔任 CEO 後不久，我們的預訂量就達到了現在這樣的強勁勢頭。我們之前擁有良好的客戶留存率，現在依然如此。我們為公司核心業務增加了 0.5 到 1 個百分點的成長。這就是我對未來兩三年的期望。我認為 2019 年是我們首次將這一點納入計劃，因為我們的預訂情況良好，而且我認為，我們還計劃在客戶留存率方面略有提高。我覺得 Jan 在談到員工留任率時，確實提到了 2018 年和 2019 年的情況。因此，2018 年的留存率為 90.4%。我們預計 2019 年將比之前提高 20 至 25 個基點。我很抱歉。這是其中一個因素。我們也把──我們現在把利息收入，也就是客戶基金的利息收入，計入了雇主服務部門。正如你所知，這種情況正在改善和發展。所以這可能也有助於提高 0.5 分——0.5 到 0.75 分，我想這就是你問的那些數字的由來。

Okay. Great. And then on the PEO side, I know in the analyst day, we talked about 11% to 14% kind of longer-term growth. Is there a path to get back to that as well? Or are some of these changes that we've talked about today for the lower growth more permanent in nature?

好的。偉大的。而在 PEO 方面，我知道在分析師日上，我們討論了 11% 到 14% 的長期成長。是否還有辦法恢復到那種狀態？或者說，我們今天討論的這些導致成長放緩的變化中，有些是更持久的？

So it's a good question. We looked at that yesterday and it's a hard path for sure. But the question is, do we really -- is that really -- even though we prided the guidance and we don't like backing off of the guidance, as I just talked about previously that top line revenue growth from the PEO is not really the most important number to look at from a value creation standpoint, which is why we're providing other disclosures around the PEO now to help with that. But clearly, it could happen because as we now were surprised by the deceleration in benefits revenue and the deceleration in workers' comp and SUI, you could have, in '20 or '21, health care inflation, which is not out of the realm of possibility that then gets us to that guidance. But frankly, if we got back into that range, it probably wouldn't change the EPS. The -- it would change the margins, but it wouldn't change EPS and it wouldn't change dollars of profit for the company because what that's driven by is the growth of worksite employees and by retention and new business bookings.

所以，這確實是個好問題。我們昨天研究過這個問題，這確實是一條艱難的路。但問題是，我們真的——真的——即使我們為業績指引感到自豪，而且我們也不喜歡放棄業績指引，正如我之前所說，從價值創造的角度來看，PEO 的營收成長並不是最重要的數字，這就是為什麼我們現在提供有關 PEO 的其他披露資訊來幫助解決這個問題。但顯然，這種情況可能會發生，因為正如我們現在對福利收入放緩以及工傷賠償和州失業保險金放緩感到驚訝一樣，2020 年或 2021 年可能會出現醫療保健通脹，這並非不可能，而這可能會導致我們得出該指導意見。但坦白說，即使我們回到那個區間，每股盈餘可能也不會改變。這會改變利潤率，但不會改變每股收益，也不會改變公司的利潤，因為利潤是由工作場所員工的成長、員工留存率和新業務預訂量所驅動的。

Our next question is from Tien-tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Just wanted to test your confidence in replenishing the back -- or the pipeline given the strong bookings in the fourth quarter. Any change in Salesforce growth or productivity function? How's the pricing situation looking? And maybe if you can comment on what segments might lead or present a challenge for you in fiscal '19 bookings (inaudible).

鑑於第四季度強勁的預訂情況，我只是想測試一下您對補充後備庫存（或渠道）的信心。Salesforce的成長或生產力指標有任何變化嗎？定價情勢如何？或許您還能評論一下，在 2019 財年的預訂中，哪些細分市場可能會帶來領先優勢或挑戰（聽不清楚）。

We have strong confidence. I would say that our confidence is strong in continuing the momentum into the first quarter. I think it's probably -- given the way new business bookings work, I think for us to sit here and say -- we're obviously providing what we think are very confident numbers about the full year. But trying to look forward to the fourth quarter, hopefully, you're not asking about that. So you're just asking coming off of the first quarter -- off of the fourth quarter, how do you feel going into the new year? I would reiterate strong. We feel very strong confidence in our momentum right now. In terms of -- I think Jan said in his comments, I think the strength we see is really across the board. So we -- I think all of the business units, frankly, are performing well from a new business bookings standpoint. It took some time. Our Salesforce, it's -- it -- I know it seems like a long time ago, but 3 or 4 years ago, everyone was talking about compliance for ACA and increased government regulation and new laws around overtime and so forth. And so there was a fairly large shift in climate that required a retooling of the Salesforce that had been focused more on selling additional business and selling additional modules to one that was focused on selling logos. And to the credit of the Salesforce, which is really the greatest Salesforce in the world, it made a massive turnaround. And now we have -- I think it's close to 60% of our new business bookings coming from new business and new logos versus probably 40% at the low point when we had the Affordable Care Act giving us that tailwind. So it was a pretty massive retooling, and it took some time. We had to change incentives. We had to change focus. And as usual, they came through, and you can see the results now.

我們信心十足。我認為我們有信心將這種勢頭延續到第一季。我認為，考慮到新業務預訂的運作方式，我們現在坐在這裡說——我們顯然提供了我們認為對全年非常有信心的數字——可能不太合適。但展望第四季度，希望你不是在問這個問題。所以你問的是，在結束了第一季——或者說第四季之後，你對即將到來的新年有何感想？我會再次強調這一點。我們對目前的上升勢頭充滿信心。至於——我想 Jan 在他的評論中說過，我認為我們看到的這種優勢是全方位的。所以——坦白說，我認為所有業務部門從新業務預訂的角度來看都表現良好。這花了一些時間。我們的 Salesforce，它——我知道這似乎已經是很久以前的事了，但 3 到 4 年前，每個人都在談論 ACA 的合規性、日益嚴格的政府監管以及有關加班等的新法律。因此，市場環境發生了相當大的變化，需要對 Salesforce 進行重新調整，使其從專注於銷售更多業務和更多模組轉變為專注於銷售客戶識別。值得稱讚的是，Salesforce（世界上最棒的 Salesforce）實現了巨大的轉變。現在，我認為我們近 60% 的新業務訂單來自新客戶和新客戶，而低谷時期，由於《平價醫療法案》的推動，這一比例可能只有 40%。所以這是一個規模相當大的改造，也花了一些時間。我們必須改變激勵機制。我們不得不改變重點。和往常一樣，他們不負眾望，現在你們也看到了結果。

The good part of the new logo growth acceleration, which, I think, is a good measure of the competitiveness in the new market is that it was strong really across our segments. So we saw new logo growth, really, as we sold to new clients in all segments, which was a particular focus, as we talked about that in investor day. And those proved playing off and that should give us a good run rate going forward.

新標誌成長加速的正面方面（我認為這很好地衡量了新市場的競爭力）在於，​​它在我們各個細分市場中都表現強勁。因此，我們看到了新客戶數量的成長，因為我們向各個領域的新客戶銷售了產品，這是我們在投資者日上重點討論的內容。事實證明這些策略奏效了，這應該能讓我們在接下來的比賽中取得不錯的成績。

Just my quick follow-up just on Global Cash Card and the Wisely app. Is the rollout there still on track? Can we still expect to see something in market by year-end? I asked because it seems like there's a lot of activity in that end market. Just wanting an update there.

我只想簡單跟進一下關於 Global Cash Card 和 Wisely 應用程式的情況。該地區的推廣工作是否仍在按計劃進行？我們還能期待年底前看到產品上市嗎？我這麼問是因為終端市場似乎非常活躍。只是想了解最新情況。

Not to steal the thunder of the product teams, but Global Cash Card is -- has a lot of momentum and is -- we're selling already the Global Cash Card product, but also the new products are coming out and everything. Both acquisitions are meeting their milestones, so we continue to be very excited about them.

我不想搶產品團隊的風頭，但是 Global Cash Card 目前發展勢頭強勁，我們已經在銷售 Global Cash Card 產品，而且新產品也即將推出等等。這兩項收購都已達到預期目標，因此我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question is from James Berkley with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 James Berkley。

Just to start. Just wondering what were some of those incentive changes that hurt PEO growth that you referred to in your earlier remarks, Carlos. And if the rebound you saw in fiscal fourth quarter holds, would that not imply that your guidance for '19 on the PEO side could be conservative?

先從頭開始。卡洛斯，我想知道你之前提到的那些損害 PEO 成長的激勵機制變化具體有哪些。如果第四財季的反彈動能能夠持續，這是否意味著您對 2019 年 PEO 業務的預期可能比較保守？

Well, I mean, that -- I don't think that's fair. I think we would have taken that into account. I mean, it's -- it would be nice to think that we had -- we really try to be pretty transparent in terms of providing guidance. And we take all factors into consideration, including momentum, including recent results. So that -- there's some fairness to that in the sense that the PEO plan was built really during the fourth quarter, while we were experiencing some of this improvement. On the other hand, if you look at the trajectory, which is now different, the trajectory was down if you look at the second and third quarter, like, we were not -- we would have had a hard time building a great plan. So I think the good results in the fourth quarter just were added confidence, if you will, to a turnaround that we were planning for any way and that we were trying to position ourselves for. So I think, all things being equal, I think it's -- as with all of our other guidance, I think it's -- I think we're giving you what we really believe is achievable, including in the PEO. And I'm sorry, the first part of your question was...

嗯，我的意思是，我覺得這不公平。我認為我們會考慮到這一點。我的意思是，如果能這樣就好了——我們真的很努力在提供指導方面做到相當透明。我們會考慮所有因素，包括勢頭和最近的業績。所以——從某種意義上說，這有一定的公平性，因為 PEO 計劃實際上是在第四季度製定的，當時我們正在經歷一些改善。另一方面，如果你看看現在的發展軌跡，情況就不同了。如果你看看第二季和第三季度，你會發現當時的發展軌跡是下降的，那時我們很難制定一個好的計畫。所以我認為，第四季度取得的良好業績，可以說增強了我們對扭虧為盈的信心，而我們本來就計劃著扭虧為盈，並且一直在努力為此做好準備。所以我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為——就像我們所有其他指導一樣，我認為——我認為我們正在向您提供我們真正相信可以實現的目標，包括在 PEO 中。抱歉，您問題的第一部分是…

Just some of the inside changes that hurt PEO growth that you guys are now perversing.

你們現在正在歪曲的一些損害 PEO 成長的內部變化，就是其中一些。

Yes. I don't want to be mysterious or complicated. So we have other -- our sales forces have incentives that we can vary at times. Like for example, our mid-market Salesforce has an incentive to provide leads to the PEO and they get a certain percentage, sales credit, which then drives commissions. And by the way, the sales credit is probably more important, in some cases, than the commission but -- just because of the culture of our Salesforce. But either way, we have these incentives in place. And if there are other products that someone is -- we're trying to sell and we provide -- we may not necessarily change the incentive to the PEO to drive leads to the PEO, but if we change an incentive to provide lead somewhere else, it may lead the Salesforce somewhere else, which is what happened. And I don't want to get into too many specifics, but we have other, for example, BPO solutions that are also mid-market-oriented, which is also -- have also grown in a very -- at a very healthy rates. And I think we saw kind of a temporary shift, if you will. And we have a much higher value. Both businesses are great businesses. Both are growing very rapidly. Both have good profitability. But the PEO has a higher dollar profit per worksite employee. And so we went back and readjusted that incentive. So it wasn't -- it's not anything complicated or mysterious. It's just that the leads were going -- started going to a different place than where they maybe had the highest value to ADP.

是的。我不想顯得神秘莫測或複雜難懂。所以我們還有其他的——我們的銷售團隊有激勵措施，我們可以不時地進行調整。例如，我們的中端市場 Salesforce 有動力向 PEO 提供銷售線索，他們會獲得一定比例的銷售積分，進而推動佣金的產生。順便說一句，在某些情況下，銷售積分可能比佣金更重要，但這只是因為我們 Salesforce 的文化。但無論如何，我們已經制定了這些激勵措施。如果還有其他產品——我們正在嘗試銷售並提供——我們可能不一定會改變 PEO 為 PEO 帶來潛在客戶的激勵機制，但如果我們改變激勵機制，讓 PEO 為其他公司提供潛在客戶，那麼 Salesforce 可能會轉向其他公司，而這正是發生的情況。我不想透露太多細節，但我們還有其他一些面向中階市場的 BPO 解決方案，這些方案也以非常健康的速度成長。我認為我們看到的是一種暫時的轉變。我們的價值要高得多。這兩家公司都是非常優秀的公司。兩者都在快速增長。兩者都具有良好的盈利能力。但 PEO 每位工作場所員工的利潤更高。因此，我們重新調整了激勵措施。所以事情並不複雜或神秘。只是銷售線索開始流向與它們對 ADP 而言可能最有價值的地方不同的地方。

Understood. And then just real quick just some more of a higher-level macro type question, but I figured it's kind of worth asking given the environment. Just given both the labor participation rate and unemployment levels are at historical lows now and we're also thinking about demographic trends and the impact that rates, such as retiring baby boomers have on the business and those unemployment labor participation trend, how do you view the health of the U.S. employment market and sustainability of payroll growth overall going forward, like the next 1, 2, 3 years here?

明白了。然後，我還有一個比較宏觀、比較高層次的問題想快速問一下，但考慮到目前的情勢，我覺得還是值得一問的。鑑於目前的勞動參與率和失業率都處於歷史低位，而且我們還在考慮人口趨勢以及諸如嬰兒潮一代退休等因素對企業和失業率/勞動參與率趨勢的影響，您如何看待美國就業市場的健康狀況以及未來1、2、3年整體工資增長的可持續性？

Listen, it's a great question for the obvious reasons in terms of where the numbers are. But I think, today, we reported, I think, 200,000 -- what was the number? [219,000] (corrected by company after the call) additional added to the payroll. So honestly, I think Jan and I have been cautioning and telling ourselves that as unemployment goes down and the market labors -- and labor market tightens that we should see some kind of a slowdown there. But we haven't seen it. And it could be as a result of -- if you look at labor force participation, and yes, that's -- it's driven somewhat by demographics and -- but there are still -- there are some arguments to be made that there could be 3 million to 3.5 million people that are still on the sidelines, right? If you think you could get back to labor participation rates around, I think, 65%, I think we're at 64% going back to 65%. So again, I'm not the macroeconomist. And we kind of try to plan based on the environment we have, the interest rates we have. And we try to be cautious about momentum. But right now, frankly, the momentum is really good, so it wouldn't have been prudent for us for '19 to plan some large drop in employment or some -- because it just doesn't feel like that's in the cards because despite the tightness of the -- apparent tightness of the labor market, you also have an economy that is incredibly strong and has picked up momentum from a GDP standpoint, that's generally creates demand for labor that will also create demand for improvements in productivity, which will help the economy. And so it feels to me like a pretty good environment right now, but something that we should definitely watch out for. So you're not -- not trying to dismiss your point, but not much I can do about it now because it's just too much good news.

聽著，這是一個很好的問題，原因顯而易見，關鍵在於數字在哪裡。但我認為，今天我們報道了，我想是 20 萬——具體數字是多少來著？[219,000]（電話後公司更正）額外增加到薪資單中。所以老實說，我認為我和 Jan 一直在告誡自己，隨著失業率下降和勞動市場趨緊，我們應該會看到經濟成長放緩。但我們還沒看到。這可能是由於——如果你觀察勞動參與率，是的，這在某種程度上是由人口結構驅動的，而且——仍然有一些論點認為，可能有 300 萬到 350 萬人仍然處於邊緣地位，對吧？如果你認為勞動參與率可以恢復到 65% 左右，我認為我們目前的勞動參與率為 64%，正在努力恢復到 65%。所以再次聲明，我不是宏觀經濟學家。我們盡量根據現有的環境和利率來制定計劃。我們會盡量謹慎對待發展勢頭。但坦白說，目前勢頭非常好，所以我們在 2019 年制定大幅裁員計劃是不明智的——因為感覺這種情況不太可能發生，儘管勞動力市場表面上很緊張，但經濟卻非常強勁，從 GDP 的角度來看，經濟增長勢頭良好，這通常會創造對勞動力的需求，進而創造對生產力的需求，這將有助於經濟發展。所以我覺得現在的環境相當不錯，但我們絕對應該對此保持警惕。所以你不是──我不是想否定你的觀點，但我現在對此也無能為力，因為好消息太多了。

No, that makes sense. That's all what I was trying to get out of it. It seems like the labor participation rate being so low that there could be some slack, despite unemployment being low as well. So appreciate the commentary.

沒錯，這很有道理。這就是我想要從中得到的全部資訊。儘管失業率也很低，但由於勞動參與率如此之低，似乎存在著一定的勞動力閒置現象。非常感謝您的評論。

Yes. And by the way, we're just getting now back to -- I think it was in the Journal today. They talked -- we've been seeing the same thing with wage inflation starting to pick up. But it's just now getting back to where it was on average over, call it -- I think it was 2001 to 2007 is what the Journal said, and I think it's 2.7%, 2.8%. We show the same kind of trends in our wage inflation. So even though you're seeing wage inflation, that's a response to, for sure, tightness in the labor markets. It doesn't change the fact that it's still not running at 4%. So it's not -- so there's something happening -- there must be slack in the labor market. There has to be something there.

是的。順便說一下，我們現在又回到了——我想今天《華爾街日報》上是這麼報道的。他們談到——我們也看到了同樣的情況，薪資通膨開始加劇。但現在才剛恢復到過去一段時間的平均值——我想《華爾街日報》是這麼說的，應該是 2001 年至 2007 年，我認為是 2.7% 或 2.8%。我們的薪資通膨也呈現同樣的趨勢。所以，即使你看到薪資上漲，那肯定是對勞動市場緊張的一種反應。但這並不能改變它目前運行速度仍未達到 4% 的事實。所以，肯定是有原因的──勞動市場一定有閒置勞動力。那裡肯定有什麼東西。

Our next question is from David Grossman of Stifel Financial.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Financial 的 David Grossman。

So you laid out 3 broad drivers of growth at the investor day. I think it was sales headcount, sales productivity and new products. Could you help us understand your expectation of relative contribution from these initiatives in fiscal '19 and how that may evolve once we get that past next year given the timing of these -- the broader new product rollout?

所以，你在投資人日列出了三大成長驅動因素。我認為是銷售人員數量、銷售效率和新產品。您能否幫助我們了解您對這些舉措在 2019 財年相對貢獻的預期，以及考慮到這些舉措的時間安排（即更廣泛的新產品推出），在明年之後，這些舉措的貢獻可能會如何變化？

I'm going to let Jan maybe go through the specifics. But I think what we intended to talk about -- investor day was a formula going forward not just for '19, but I think is the way we think about the business, which is to have kind of, generally speaking, balanced growth around headcount, productivity of our headcount and sales and then from new products. So if you look at our guidance, I think, generally, a good way to look at it would be 1/3 of that growth coming from headcount, about 1/3 coming from new products and 1/3 of it coming from productivity. And I don't know if Jan, if you want to add...

我打算讓 Jan 來詳細說明一下。但我認為我們原本打算討論的是——投資者日討論的是一個面向未來的模式，不僅適用於 2019 年，而且我認為也是我們對業務的思考方式，那就是在員工人數、員工生產力、銷售額以及新產品方面實現某種程度的平衡增長。所以，如果你看一下我們的指導意見，我認為，總的來說，比較好的理解方式是：三分之一的成長來自員工人數，大約三分之一來自新產品，三分之一來自生產力。我不知道 Jan 是否想補充…

That's what I would have said. And it may be gearing ever so slightly a little bit higher on the headcount side, but -- and the productivity side. But in general, that's the mix. And I think the team is optimistic about '19 to achieve it with some moderate headcount growth and -- for the carrier side and then with a bunch of these new products aided by additional acquisitions that come into the pipeline to drive then the overall productivity in addition to the headcount growth for the overall result, So that's exactly what...

我也會這麼說。雖然在人員數量方面可能略微偏高一些，但在生產力方面卻並非如此。但總的來說，這就是混合情況。我認為團隊對2019年的目標持樂觀態度，希望透過適度的人員成長，以及一系列新產品的推出和即將進行的收購，在人員成長的基礎上，進一步提升整體生產力，最終實現目標。這就是…

Yes. I think to the previous question, Global Cash Card would be in that category.

是的。我認為對於上一個問題，Global Cash Card 就屬於這一類。

That's, for example. Global Cash Card is a new product that's actually meaningfully adding to our sales growth in '18.

例如。全球現金卡是一款新產品，它在 2018 年確實為我們帶來了顯著的銷售成長。

Okay. I guess, sort of seeing the new products more like some of the next-generation platforms (inaudible).

好的。我猜，這些新產品更像是下一代平台（聽不清楚）。

Yes. So that's (inaudible), David. So next-generation products will be a very small part only of our '19 numbers. When we accelerate it, we disclosed a number of clients on the strategic platforms in order to scale and test. But Lifion, that number is not going to be impacting '19. It will be more meaningful in '20 and '21.

是的。那就是（聽不清楚），大衛。因此，下一代產品在我們 2019 年的業績中只佔很小一部分。為了加快步伐，我們在策略平台上公佈了一些客戶，以便擴大規模並進行測試。但 Lifion，這個數字不會對 2019 年產生影響。在2020年和2021年，這將更有意義。

Yes, we're very -- as you know, we're very bullish in our next-gen platforms and what they're going to do to the long-term health of the business. But from a technically speaking standpoint, it's just that we're such a big company, I think our bookings for next year, $1.8 billion or somewhere in that neighborhood.

是的，正如您所知，我們非常看好我們的下一代平台，以及它們將對公司長期健康發展帶來的益處。但從技術角度來說，這只是因為我們是一家規模龐大的公司，我認為我們明年的預訂量將達到 18 億美元左右。

Growth on top of $1.8 billion.

在18億美元的基礎上增長。

$1.5 billion is the Employer Services bookings number. And we're guiding...

雇主服務預訂額為15億美元。我們正在引導…

I'm sorry. It was right. The Employer Services bookings number. But then the bottom line, the numbers are big enough now that as we roll out new products, you have to have a lot of them. So our Salesforce, when we talk about -- when we tell them the same thing about next gen should be really helping you -- they focus on this gen, like they want to know what's available to sell now. And so the good news is we have things like our analytics products. We have the acquisitions we just talked about. So we do have a number of things that we've been working on over the prior several years that have now provided ammunition for them to be able to go out and have some portion of that sales guidance come from "new products," notwithstanding the fact that our next-generation platforms are just not quite at the point where they're going to make a meaningful impact on sales in '19.

對不起。沒錯。雇主服務預訂號碼。但歸根結底，現在的數量已經足夠大了，所以當我們推出新產品時，就必須擁有大量的庫存。所以，當我們的 Salesforce 團隊談到下一代產品時，他們只專注於這一代產品，好像他們想知道現在有什麼產品可以賣。所以好消息是我們擁有像分析產品這樣的工具。我們已經完成了剛才提到的收購。因此，過去幾年我們一直在努力開發一些產品，這些產品現在為他們提供了動力，使他們能夠推出一些新產品，從而實現部分銷售目標。儘管我們的下一代平台還不夠成熟，無法在 2019 年對銷售產生實質影響。

Okay. Got it. And then just 2 quick follow-ups. One is I didn't quite understand the unit growth comment maybe that Jan made about the high teens. Is that client growth versus WSE growth? Maybe I just missed that. If I could clarify that and just...

好的。知道了。然後還有兩個簡短的後續問題。一是我不太理解 Jan 關於十幾歲高齡的單位成長評論。這是客戶成長還是 WSE 成長？或許我錯過了。如果我能解釋一下，那就…

And I would (inaudible) to apologize, David, for that. So just because you're asking, our ADP client growth overall, number of clients that are with ADP, grew by 6%. That's the entire base to the 740,000 clients or so. That's about 6%, which is very healthy growth. It's nice, and we're very proud of that. When I deferred to our high teens in new logo growth, we refer about the number of new clients that we were able to sell to and compare that to the number of new clients that we sold last year. And that's a different number. That's kind of new logo growth number relative to our new business bookings number. And that really accelerated very nicely in the PEO last year, and so -- which means basically, we had a reacceleration of new business bookings in the PEO, but a lot more smaller clients. And the average deal size was a little smaller.

大衛，我（聽不清楚）想為此道歉。既然你問了，那就告訴你，我們 ADP 的客戶整體成長情況，也就是 ADP 的客戶數量，成長了 6%。這就是大約 74 萬客戶的全部基礎。這大約是 6%，這是一個非常健康的成長。這很棒，我們為此感到非常自豪。當我提到我們新標誌成長超過 100% 時，我們指的是我們能夠銷售的新客戶數量，並將其與我們去年銷售的新客戶數量進行比較。那又是另一個數字了。這是相對於我們新業務預訂量而言的新徽標增長數字。去年，PEO 業務的成長速度確實非常快，這意味著 PEO 業務的新業務預訂量重新加速成長，但客戶規模較小。平均交易規模略小。

Yes. That average deal size had actually grown -- had gone up in the last several years. And I think some of it was, again -- I hate to keep going back. I think we drove some of that through our incentives because I think it's a product that fits both the downmarket and the mid-market very well.

是的。平均交易規模實際上有所增長——在過去幾年裡有所上升。而且我覺得其中一些原因又是──我不想再往前追溯了。我認為我們透過激勵措施推動了部分成長，因為我認為這款產品非常適合低端市場和中端市場。

Okay. Got it. And just one last quick one. Is the acquisition -- does that contribute to just give us a size that -- for us in terms of revenue and profit contribution in 2019?

好的。知道了。最後再補充一個。此次收購是否能使我們在 2019 年的營收和利潤貢獻達到一定規模？

The acquisition of the -- of Celergo that we announced today is going to be not meaningful to the overall revenue growth.

我們今天宣布的對 Celergo 的收購對整體收入成長不會產生實質影響。

Very meaningful strategically, if I may add because, again, as Jan was alluding to, like, we were in this conundrum always where we talk about our size was $13.3 billion in revenue or whatever the number is for '18 here that we finished. So when we make an acquisition that is meaningful and strategic, and we're very excited about it, unfortunately, financially, it might not be -- have a big impact. But we certainly expect it to have a big impact in our ability to continue selling and be successful in the multinational space, which is a -- again, a mid-teens growing business for us. And this just extends that leadership and, I think, that success that we're having in that space.

如果我沒理解錯的話，這在戰略上意義重大，因為，正如 Jan 所暗示的那樣，我們一直處於這種困境，我們談論我們的規模時，收入是 133 億美元，或者不管我們在 2018 年結束時是哪個數字。所以，當我們進行一項意義重大且具有戰略意義的收購時，我們對此感到非常興奮，但遺憾的是，從財務角度來看，它可能不會產生很大的影響。但我們當然期望它能對我們繼續銷售並在跨國領域取得成功的能力產生重大影響，而跨國領域對我們來說又是一個——再次強調，這是一個以十幾個百分點的速度增長的業務。我認為，這進一步鞏固了我們在該領域的領導地位和成功。

Our next question is from Jeff Silber with BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Jeff Silber。

It's Henry Chien calling for Jeff. Just wanted to shift over and ask about the margin outlook and where you're getting -- or I guess, where you're looking to drive margin expansion. Just curious if you could share a little bit more about what areas of the business you think you can get that expansion beyond the early retirement and if any color on how much of that is leveraged versus some of the -- maybe more discreet items that you're doing to improve margins overall.

是亨利·錢在找傑夫。我只是想轉過來問一下利潤率前景以及你們正在從哪裡獲得利潤率成長——或者說，你們打算從哪裡推動利潤率成長。我很好奇，您能否分享一下，除了提早退休之外，您認為可以在哪些業務領域實現擴張？以及，您能否詳細說明，其中有多少是透過槓桿作用實現的，又有多少是透過一些——或許更隱密的——專案來提高整體利潤率的？

So I think we've been doing a lot of work. I think Jan can probably add a couple of examples. But we've been doing a lot of work over the last year or 2 around, what we call, process improvement in trying to, really, as an example, reduce non-value contact. So we want to make sure that the products themselves are intuitive, easy to use and that we build in solutions, so that people don't have to seek out help. Clearly, we're a solutions provider not just a software provider. So when someone who want help, we're there to help them. We want to be value-added. The non-value added interactions are dissatisfiers for the client and also increase cost for us. And so I think we've made progress in the last couple of years in reducing, what we refer to as, our non-value contacts. So that's a source of margin improvement because it reduces the number of people we need to service x number of clients. And so it's really a productivity enhancement effort. So I'd say, most of the margin improvement that we expect to get -- and I would say that the voluntary retirement is wrapped up into that because it has to be factored into the overall amount of labor you have is to increase productivity, so increase really revenue per associate or per employee, while revenues continue to grow. So as an example, I think, in '18, we finished with our growth in full-time employees being relatively flat, like, with -- compared to what we consider to be pretty good revenue growth. And I think for '19, we would see kind of a similar picture, maybe slight increase. But we've kind of brought down, from the nose of the ship, if you will, in terms of the growth of the number of people we need in order to service x number of clients. So we're trying to grow the business, obviously, faster, but we're trying to grow the expense and the number of people to service those clients at a slower rate than even we were growing before. And I think that's what leads to margin improvement. So that's a simplified way of describing dozens of things that we have underway to make ourselves better and more efficient.

所以我覺得我們做了很多工作。我認為 Jan 或許還能再舉幾個例子。但在過去一兩年裡，我們一直在做很多工作，我們稱之為流程改進，例如，努力減少無價值的接觸。因此，我們希望確保產品本身直觀易用，並且我們內建解決方案，以便人們不必尋求幫助。顯然，我們是解決方案提供商，而不僅僅是軟體提供商。所以當有人需要幫助時，我們就會去幫助他們。我們希望創造價值。非增值互動會讓客戶不滿意，也會增加我們的成本。因此，我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們在減少我們所謂的非價值接觸方面取得了進展。所以這是提高利潤率的一個途徑，因為它減少了服務 x 個客戶所需的人員數量。所以這其實是一項提高生產力的措施。所以我認為，我們預期獲得的大部分利潤率提升——而且我認為自願退休也包含在其中，因為它必須計入你擁有的勞動力總量中，目的是提高生產力，從而真正提高每位員工或每位合夥人的收入，同時收入繼續增長。例如，我認為，在 2018 年，我們的全職員工成長相對平穩，而我們認為收入成長相當不錯。我認為 2019 年的情況也差不多，可能會略有成長。但是，我們已經從船頭開始，也就是從服務 x 個客戶所需的人員數量增長方面，降低了增長速度。所以，我們顯然是想更快地發展業務，但我們增加服務客戶的成本和人員數量的速度，甚至比我們以前的成長速度還要慢。我認為這就是利潤率提高的原因。以上是我們正在進行的數十項旨在提升自身水準和效率的工作的簡化描述。

The part of the sources of the margin expansion, for your benefit, the most important one, as Carlos just described, and they're driven then underlining with tools like the early retirement, like our Service Alignment Initiative and general business improvement initiatives to reduce the workload, make our workforce more effective. And so that's a very important part of this. But also our IT folks make meaningful progress to support our infrastructures. We do see some benefits of reduced complexity because of our product set is now simpler. And they have really worked hard to drive and control our overall IT infrastructure cost. So we have seen help from that in this fiscal year and I think we're going to anticipate that going forward and not to give -- when we talk about scale, scale doesn't happen on its own. And the most important driver to help with scale is improving retention. And we have emphasized that, I think, from our communications that healthy revenue growth and improving retentions are very important to support and sustain margin growth because if you keep a client, obviously, you don't have to sell it as a new client. And it's a generally high-margin business for those clients retained. So we have other factors that also help in the margin expansion momentum. And I think, in the investor day, I mentioned other initiatives, like focusing on our vendors spend, for example, and a broad range of other things that we are undergoing that will help, but it's not only one thing. It's through a lot of initiatives.

在利潤擴張的來源中，最重要的部分正如卡洛斯剛才所描述的那樣，是透過提前退休、我們的服務調整計劃以及一般的業務改進計劃等工具來推動的，以減少工作量，提高員工的工作效率。所以，這是其中非常重要的一環。但我們的IT人員也在為我們的基礎設施提供支援方面取得了實質進展。由於我們的產品組合現在變得更簡單了，我們確實看到了降低複雜性的好處。他們確實付出了很多努力來降低和控制我們的整體 IT 基礎設施成本。因此，我們在本財政年度已經看到了這方面的幫助，我認為我們將期待未來繼續如此，並且不會放棄——當我們談到規模時，規模不會自行實現。而幫助擴大規模的最重要驅動因素是提高用戶留存率。而且，我認為，從我們的溝通中可以明顯看出，健康的營收成長和提高客戶留存率對於支持和維持利潤成長非常重要，因為如果你留住了一個客戶，顯然你就不需要把他/她當作新客戶來銷售了。而且對於那些留住的客戶來說，這通常是一項利潤很高的業務。因此，還有其他因素也有助於利潤率的擴張勢頭。而且我認為，在投資者日上，我提到了其他一些舉措，例如關注我們的供應商支出，以及我們正在進行的其他一系列有助於此的舉措，但這不僅僅是一件事。這是透過許多舉措實現的。

But bottom line is, I think, fewer platforms, a simplified environment and then next-generation solutions that are much more efficient to operate, efficient -- more efficient to develop on and more efficient to maintain, I think, is really part of the formula.

但歸根結底，我認為，更少的平台、更簡化的環境，以及下一代更有效率的解決方案，這些解決方案在營運、開發和維護方面都更加高效，這才是真正的致勝之道。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And just a quick follow-up on the client migrations. What part -- I guess, what areas of the business is still remaining for migrations, if there's any?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。最後再簡單跟進一下客戶端遷移的情況。我猜，如果還有的話，業務的哪些部分──哪些領域──還需要進行遷移？

We're still focusing on our enterprise space where we have a bunch of legacy clients in -- to migrate. And there's also work for us to doing our international business. So we maintain our migration investment year-over-year and focus now a little bit more in the enterprise space.

我們仍然專注於企業領域，那裡有很多老客戶需要遷移。此外，我們還需要開展國際業務。因此，我們保持了每年在遷移方面的投資，並且現在更加重視企業領域。

Our next question is from Mark Marcon of R.W. Baird.

下一個問題來自 R.W. Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

I was just wondering with regards to ES, on the service center side, can you give us an update with regards to just the service centralization across the 5 big project centers and how that -- how that's progressing and what you're seeing in terms of client satisfaction scores? And then the second part of the question is, as you look out towards ES for this -- for 2019, would you expect the strongest growth to be on SBS and majors relative to national? Or would you expect the international to be one of the strongest growth areas? Or how would you characterize the strongest growth?

我只是想了解ES在服務中心方面的情況，您能否給我們提供一下關於5個大型專案中心的服務集中化的最新進展情況，以及您在客戶滿意度評分方面看到的情況？那麼問題的第二部分是，展望 2019 年 ES 的發展，您認為相對於全國性產業，SBS 和主要產業的成長會最強勁嗎？或者您認為國際市場將成為成長最強勁的領域之一？或者，您會如何描述最強勁的成長？

So let me give you a quick update on our Service Alignment Initiative, which is really progressing very nicely. So we're very satisfied with the momentum that we have and the transition that worked out. So we have about -- we hired close to 3,000, 2,700 associates in these new service centers, which were 3 new ones and 2 existing ones, all in about 6,000 associates now. And we have been -- and have exited about 90% of all targeted locations really on schedule or slightly ahead of schedule. So the program has been working. And now we are rooting in. And as we have indicated, as the trend continues, we have a great employment-employee engagement and excellent client satisfaction scores. That's now so meaningful because a large chunk of the business is in these service centers. So that helped to the improvement on our overall satisfaction. So this is going very well for '19. We're at scale, so I don't anticipate any dual-ops pressure. We had a dual ops in '18, so that's coming out. And we have expended a few additional locations based on the success of those centers. So all in good light relative to Service Alignment and our business case. Relative to -- Mark, I apologize, the second question was...

讓我快速向大家報告我們的服務協調計劃的最新進展，目前進展非常順利。因此，我們對目前的勢頭和順利的過渡非常滿意。所以，我們在這些新的服務中心僱用了大約 3000 名員工，其中 2700 人，包括 3 個新的服務中心和 2 個現有的服務中心，現在總共有大約 6000 名員工。我們已經按計劃或略微提前完成了大約 90% 的目標地點。所以這個程式運作正常。現在我們正在紮根。正如我們所指出的，隨著這一趨勢的持續，我們的員工敬業度很高，客戶滿意度也很高。現在這一點意義重大，因為很大一部分業務都集中在這些服務中心。所以這有助於提高我們的整體滿意度。所以2019年一切進展順利。我們已經達到了一定的規模，所以我預計不會有雙重營運壓力。我們在 2018 年進行了雙重行動，所以那件事要發生了。根據這些中心的成功經驗，我們又增設了一些地點。所以，就服務一致性和我們的商業案例而言，一切都進展順利。關於──馬克，很抱歉，第二個問題是…

It's just basically as we look at ES growth for the coming year, like, where we would expect the strongest growth versus more moderate growth?

基本上，當我們展望來年ES的成長時，我們會考慮哪些方面預期成長最強勁，哪些方面成長較為溫和？

That question, the strong growth in the ES portfolio is a little bit more centered around the downmarket components and our HR BPO offerings throughout all segments, actually. So we had a good growth in the non-PEO, HR BPO offerings and our multinational offerings. So the strength of the growth drivers that we have historically observed, I think, we expect to continue. And then we see actually an acceleration of the revenue performance in the mid- and the upmarket. So it's accelerating and improving. So all segments are really improving in our '19 plans.

事實上，這個問題的答案是，ES產品組合的強勁成長更多地集中在面向低端市場的組件以及我們在所有細分市場的HR BPO產品上。因此，我們在非 PEO、HR BPO 服務和跨國服務方面都取得了良好的成長。因此，我認為，我們過去觀察到的成長驅動因素的強勁勢頭預計將會持續下去。然後我們看到中高端市場的收入成長速度實際上加快了。所以它正在加速發展並不斷進步。因此，在我們2019年的計畫中，所有環節都得到了顯著改善。

And we have time for one more question. Our last question is from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

Most of my questions have been answered, but one question I did want to ask was related to M&A. Should we anticipate that we may be entering into a period of elevated M&A activity? Or do you expect to maintain kind of the same pace you have over time? And can you just give a little bit of color on the conditions in the M&A market in terms of being able to find appropriate targets and valuation, et cetera?

我的大部分問題都得到了解答，但我還有一個關於併購的問題想問。我們是否應該預期即將進入併購活動活躍期？還是你希望隨著時間的推移，維持目前的發展速度？您能否簡單介紹一下併購市場的現狀，例如能否找到合適的收購目標、估值等等？

So it's a great question. I mean, the -- I'm very pleased with what we've been able to do on the acquisition front over the last 12 to 18 months. And I think we could find -- continue to find things like we have found in the last 18 months. We would do those all day long. The challenge, of course, for us, as you know, is we are in the process of simplifying, reducing platforms, focusing on our next-generation platforms. And so that makes it hard to do, what I would call, traditional -- make traditional acquisitions. So we're not looking, for example, for the next benefits platform. We're not looking for the next payroll platform. We -- we're building our own next-generation payroll platform. We have a great one already that is serving us well and is a very profitable. And so it is challenging because when you look at the HDM space, we are -- we operate in really across almost every segment from hire to retire. And we feel great about the products and the platforms that we have. But as you saw over the last 18 months, there's always some stuff that you can do that's new and can add to the portfolio. So I think as long as it's additive and fits into our strategic roadmap, we are buyers. And we are -- we're on the -- on a lookout for those types of way -- those types of ways to use our capital, right, to add shareholder value. So it's kind of hard to give you a completely bullish answer because we're trying to be very, very disciplined. But we've been very, very fortunate in the last 18 months. And I hope that our luck continues and that we find things that can really be difference makers for our clients and to our growth rates, but that also fit into our strategic roadmap and don't just add additional complexity.

這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，我對過去 12 到 18 個月我們在收購方面所取得的成就感到非常滿意。我認為我們可以繼續找到像過去 18 個月那樣的東西。我們會整天做這些事。當然，如您所知，我們面臨的挑戰是，我們正在簡化流程，減少平台數量，專注於我們的下一代平台。因此，這使得進行我所謂的傳統收購變得困難。所以，例如，我們並不是在尋找下一個福利平台。我們並非在尋找下一個薪資管理平台。我們正在打造自己的下一代薪資平台。我們已經有一台很棒的機器，它運作良好，而且非常有利可圖。因此，這具有挑戰性，因為當你審視HDM領域時，你會發現我們——我們的業務幾乎涵蓋了從招聘到退休的每一個環節。我們對現有的產品和平台感到非常滿意。但正如你在過去 18 個月裡看到的那樣，總是有一些新的東西可以做，可以添加到你的作品集中。所以我認為，只要它具有增益效果並且符合我們的策略路線圖，我們就會購買。我們正在——我們正在尋找這類方式——這類利用我們的資本來增加股東價值的方式。所以很難給你一個完全樂觀的答案，因為我們正在努力保持非常非常謹慎的態度。但在過去18個月裡，我們非常非常幸運。我希望我們的好運能夠持續下去，找到真正能夠為我們的客戶和我們的成長率帶來改變的事情，同時也要符合我們的策略路線圖，而不是增加額外的複雜性。

And this does conclude our question-and-answer portion for today. I am pleased to hand the program over to Carlos Rodriguez for any closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我很高興將節目交給卡洛斯·羅德里格斯，請他作總結發言。

Thanks. Just quickly. Obviously, this year, we spent a lot of time listening to our shareholders and to all of you as well. And I think our interactions this year, I think, just -- I think reinforced our conviction in the strategy that we're pursuing. We've got very positive feedback from investor day about our plans and our strategy to create sustainable long-term value. So we're going to continue, obviously, on the path that we're on. The results for this year, I think, really set us up well for fiscal '19. We feel like we've seen some acceleration. And as I mentioned, I would call it a trough, if you will, in the middle of this last fiscal year. So I think heading into next year, we have really good momentum. So whether it's the next-generation platforms that we just talked about or the mid-market migrations or the acquisitions that we just talked about or progress on the Service Alignment Initiative or the voluntary early retirement program, it's -- I think it's pretty clear that we are committed to accelerating the pace of change at ADP and that we're actually well underway. I'm particularly pleased, I have to say, this year, with the ability of the organization overall to overcome the pressures that we had from bookings and retention, call it, a couple of years ago that -- right in the middle of the perfect storm of the Affordable Care Act and some other things that distracted us, but we're past that. You can see that we had solid performance in 2018 and I'm really -- that makes me very, very optimistic about the future for ADP. So -- and I think, lastly, I have to -- I always say that when we reflect on all these accomplishments, which are many in 2018, I just want to thank all of our associates for their dedication to providing the best-in-class solutions to our clients because our business is all about our clients and our clients are all about the associates that serve them. So with that, I want to thank you for listening in today, and thank you for your continued interest in ADP.

謝謝。就簡單說一下。顯然，今年我們花了很多時間傾聽股東們的意見，也傾聽了大家的意見。我認為，我們今年的互動，恰恰——我認為，強化了我們對正在推行的策略的信念。在投資者日上，我們收到了關於我們的計劃和創造可持續長期價值的策略的非常積極的回饋。所以，很顯然，我們會繼續沿著我們正在走的路走下去。我認為，今年的業績確實為我們2019財年奠定了良好的基礎。我們感覺已經看到了一些加速成長的跡象。正如我之前提到的，如果可以的話，我會稱之為上個財政年度的低谷期。所以我認為展望明年，我們擁有非常好的發展動能。所以，無論是我們剛才談到的下一代平台，還是中端市場遷移，或是收購，還是服務調整計劃的進展，或者是自願提前退休計劃，我認為很明顯，我們致力於加快 ADP 的變革步伐，而且我們實際上已經取得了不錯的進展。我必須說，今年我尤其感到高興的是，整個組織能夠克服我們在預訂和客戶留存方面面臨的壓力。幾年前，我們正處於《平價醫療法案》和其他一些分散我們注意力的事情的完美風暴之中，但我們已經度過了那段時期。你可以看到我們在 2018 年取得了穩健的業績，這讓我對 ADP 的未來非常非常樂觀。所以——最後，我想說——我總是說，當我們回顧2018年取得的諸多成就時，我只想感謝我們所有的同事，感謝他們致力於為客戶提供一流的解決方案，因為我們的業務以客戶為中心，而客戶也以服務他們的同事為中心。最後，我要感謝各位今天的收聽，也感謝各位一直以來對ADP的關注。