亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web.

早安，歡迎參加 ADI 公司 2021 財年第三季財報電話會議，該會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊網路直播。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監邁克爾·盧卡雷利先生。先生，請您發言。

Thank you, Shelby, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our third quarter fiscal 2021 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO, Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah.

謝謝你，謝爾比，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2021 財年第三季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 ADI 的執行長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 財務長 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。

For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到它和相關的財務時間表。

And on to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in our earnings release and our most recent 10-Q and other periodic reports and materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking information as these statements reflect our expectations only as of the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law.

接下來是披露內容。我們即將討論的資訊包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，如我們的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 和其他定期報告和材料中進一步所述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性資訊有重大差異，因為這些陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的預期。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items. When comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

我們今天的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標，不包括特殊項目。當我們的結果與歷史績效進行比較時，特殊項目也被排除在前期之外。今天的收益報告包含了這些非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳以及有關我們的非公認會計準則指標的其他資訊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to ADI's CEO, Vincent Roche. Vince?

接下來，我將把發言權交給 ADI 執行長 Vincent Roche。文斯？

Thank you, Mike, and a very good morning to everybody. So ADI delivered a second consecutive quarter of record revenue and earnings. Despite the challenging supply environment, our strong performance was driven by continued operational excellence and insatiable demand as semiconductors power the modern digital age.

謝謝你，麥克，祝大家早安。因此，ADI 連續第二季實現了創紀錄的收入和收益。儘管供應環境充滿挑戰，但隨著半導體為現代數位時代提供動力，我們強勁的業績得益於持續的卓越營運和無限的需求。

Broadly speaking, the economic recovery continues to take shape with demand still far exceeding supply. We, like many others in our industry, will face a constrained supply environment into 2022. Despite this backdrop, our business continues to achieve record results as our investments and design wins over the last few years are matched with strong demand across our end markets. So looking ahead, the combination of robust bookings, lean inventories and ongoing capacity additions position ADI to close fiscal '21 on a high note and continue to grow in the next year.

整體來看，經濟復甦動能持續增強，需求仍遠超過供應。與業內許多其他公司一樣，到 2022 年，我們將面臨供應受限的環境。儘管存在這樣的背景，我們的業務仍然繼續取得創紀錄的業績，因為我們過去幾年的投資和設計勝利與我們終端市場的強勁需求相匹配。因此展望未來，強勁的訂單、精益的庫存和持續的產能增加將使 ADI 以高調結束 21 財年，並在明年繼續成長。

So moving to our third quarter results. Revenue was $1.76 billion, up 21% year-over-year. All markets increased sequentially with Industrial and Automotive once again achieving records. Gross margin expanded to over 71% and operating margin to over 43%. Adjusted EPS of $1.72 increased 27% year-over-year. Despite elevated capital spending to increase our capacity, free cash flow over the trailing 12 months was $2.2 billion. This equates to a 34% free cash flow margin, maintaining our position in the top 10% of the S&P 500. So overall, I'm very pleased with our performance and our team's outstanding execution.

接下來是我們的第三季業績。營收為17.6億美元，年增21%。所有市場均連續成長，其中工業和汽車市場再次創下紀錄。毛利率擴大至 71% 以上，營業利益率擴大至 43% 以上。調整後每股收益為 1.72 美元，年增 27%。儘管我們增加了資本支出以擴大產能，但過去 12 個月的自由現金流仍達到 22 億美元。這相當於 34% 的自由現金流利潤率，使我們在標準普爾 500 指數中保持前 10% 的地位。總的來說，我對我們的表現和我們團隊的出色執行力感到非常滿意。

As you know, at ADI, our ethos of innovation and deep customer engagements ensure that we stay ahead of what's possible. We invest more than $1 billion annually in R&D, focused on strengthening our core franchises and capturing market opportunities presented by secular growth drivers which have accelerated in the economic recovery.

如您所知，在 ADI，我們的創新精神和深入的客戶參與確保我們始終保持領先。我們每年在研發方面投資超過 10 億美元，專注於加強我們的核心特許經營權並抓住經濟復甦中加速的長期成長動力所帶來的市場機會。

Now let me share some recent highlights with you. Our Industrial business is our most diverse segment across customers, products and applications and feature sticky, long product life cycles. Our largest industrial segment, instrumentation and test, is comprised of automated test equipment, electronic test and measurement and scientific instruments. This is truly a performance-driven market that aligns perfectly to our high-performance precision signal chain, power management and RF portfolios.

現在讓我與大家分享一些最近的亮點。我們的工業業務是我們在客戶、產品和應用方面最多樣化的領域，具有黏性強、產品生命週期長的特性。我們最大的工業部門是儀器和測試，包括自動化測試設備、電子測試和測量以及科學儀器。這確實是一個性能驅動的市場，與我們的高效能精密訊號鏈、電源管理和射頻產品組合完美契合。

Importantly, instrumentation and test is aligned with all secular growth trends from connectivity to EVs, to sustainability. The growing technology complexity of these applications requires more testers with more advanced performance capabilities.

重要的是，儀器和測試與從連接到電動車到永續性的所有長期成長趨勢保持一致。這些應用的技術複雜性日益增加，需要更多具有更先進性能的測試儀。

Today, ADI is the leader in communications tests, and we're collaborating with Keysight, for example, to advance the development of O-RAN solutions. This partnership will enable the fastest path for designing cost-effective and power-efficient radio units. Looking ahead, we're already beginning to partner with our customers to test emerging 6G technologies.

如今，ADI 是通訊測試領域的領導者，我們正在與是德科技等公司合作，推動 O-RAN 解決方案的開發。此次合作將為設計經濟高效且節能的無線電裝置提供最快的途徑。展望未來，我們已經開始與客戶合作測試新興的 6G 技術。

Our innovations in the instrumentation market also have a positive impact on human and planetary health. One particular area is our environmental monitoring business, where there is an increased need for highly reliable and accurate instruments to improve the standard of living globally. Our market-leading portfolio of precision converters enables 10x greater measurement resolution of fine particulate matter, better identifying trace pollutions.

我們在儀器儀表市場的創新也對人類和地球健康產生了積極影響。其中一個特殊領域是我們的環境監測業務，該領域對高度可靠和精確的儀器的需求日益增加，以提高全球生活水平。我們市場領先的精密轉換器產品組合可將細顆粒物的測量解析度提高 10 倍，從而更好地識別微量污染。

The next largest industrial segment is factory automation. Over the last year, many of our customers are rethinking their factory floors and supply chains to make them more resilient, cost effective and flexible through automation and connectivity. To achieve this, our customers will further automate their businesses with intelligent and connected factories and increase their use of robots and cobots.

下一個最大的工業領域是工廠自動化。在過去的一年裡，我們的許多客戶都在重新考慮他們的工廠車間和供應鏈，希望透過自動化和連結性來提高它們的彈性、成本效益和靈活性。為了實現這一目標，我們的客戶將透過智慧互聯工廠進一步實現業務自動化，並增加機器人和協作機器人的使用。

Specifically, cobots require ADI's precision signal chain and power franchises, sensing technologies and robust wired and wireless connectivity. This new vector of growth increases our SAM opportunity by 3x that of a traditional robot. To that end, our precision motion control business is on track for a record year of design wins, including a recent win at a leading Japanese robotics company for its next-generation cobots. In addition, we're leveraging our domain knowledge and system-level expertise in a collaboration with Universal Robots to design smaller, smarter and easier-to-use robots that help scale tasks safely and transform workforces.

具體來說，協作機器人需要 ADI 的精密訊號鍊和電源特許經營權、感測技術以及強大的有線和無線連接。這一新的成長方向使我們的 SAM 機會比傳統機器人增加了 3 倍。為此，我們的精密運動控制業務有望創下設計勝利的記錄，包括最近贏得一家日本領先機器人公司下一代協作機器人的設計勝利。此外，我們正在利用我們的領域知識和系統級專業知識與 Universal Robots 合作，設計更小、更聰明、更易於使用的機器人，幫助安全地擴展任務並轉變勞動力。

Well, turning now to our Communications business. 5G is beginning to broaden globally, especially in North America, as carriers look to deploy newly acquired C-band spectrum. And O-RAN continues to gain momentum also with several of the largest European carriers setting ambitious 2025 O-RAN deployment targets. This includes Vodafone where our technologies are very well represented.

好吧，現在轉向我們的通訊業務。隨著營運商尋求部署新獲得的 C 波段頻譜，5G 開始在全球擴展，尤其是在北美。O-RAN 也繼續獲得發展勢頭，歐洲幾家最大的營運商都制定了雄心勃勃的 2025 年 O-RAN 部署目標。其中包括沃達豐，我們的技術在該領域得到了很好的體現。

This quarter, we extended our market-leading position in 5G radio solutions with the introduction of the industry's first software-defined transceiver that includes a fully integrated digital front end. Our innovative radio architecture greatly improves power efficiency, thereby reducing radio weight, size and carrier expenses. This high level of integration eliminates FPGAs to simplify implementation and facilitate the proliferation of these emerging O-RAN networks. Our next-generation transceiver platform is already designed in at a major Tier 1 global supplier that is gaining share in these 5G and O-RAN deployments across North America as well as Europe.

本季度，我們推出了業界首款包含完全整合數位前端的軟體定義收發器，鞏固了我們在 5G 無線電解決方案領域的市場領先地位。我們創新的無線電架構大大提高了功率效率，從而降低了無線電重量、尺寸和運營商費用。這種高水準的整合消除了 FPGA，從而簡化了實施並促進了這些新興 O-RAN 網路的普及。我們的下一代收發器平台已在一家主要的全球一級供應商處進行設計，該供應商在北美和歐洲的 5G 和 O-RAN 部署中正在獲得越來越多的份額。

Stepping back, we expect our Communications business to return to growth in 2022. We have strong design momentum, and our geographic mix has shifted with North America, Europe and Korea representing our largest sources of revenue.

退一步來說，我們預計我們的通訊業務將在 2022 年恢復成長。我們擁有強勁的設計勢頭，我們的地理結構也發生了變化，北美、歐洲和韓國成為我們最大的收入來源。

Moving now on to Automotive. Over the last 2 years, we've realigned our business to focus on electrification and the in-cabin human experience. We're seeing the benefits of this strategy as we continue to scale our market leadership in battery management, power management, audio systems and connectivity.

現在轉向汽車。在過去的兩年裡，我們重新調整了業務，將重點放在電氣化和車內人類體驗上。隨著我們繼續擴大在電池管理、電源管理、音訊系統和連接方面的市場領導地位，我們看到了這項策略的好處。

Starting firstly with our battery management systems, or BMS. Our wired and wireless portfolios provide unmatched accuracy to deliver market-leading vehicle range and can measure all key battery chemistries, including zero-Cobalt LFP. Additionally, our solutions incorporate ASIL-D functional safety and an ultra-low power continuous monitoring feature that ensures the battery remains stable even while parked, which is a first in the market.

首先從我們的電池管理系統（BMS）開始。我們的有線和無線產品組合具有無與倫比的精度，可提供市場領先的車輛續航里程，並可測量所有關鍵電池化學成分，包括零鈷 LFP。此外，我們的解決方案還採用了 ASIL-D 功能安全和超低功耗持續監控功能，確保電池即使在停車時也能保持穩定，這在市場上尚屬首創。

In addition, this quarter marked the first time we recognize revenue for our wireless BMS solution as General Motors prepares to ship its first of 30 EV models powered by the Ultium battery platform. And this is just the beginning for this groundbreaking BMS technology as OEMs realize the power of wireless data in scaling their fleets.

此外，在通用汽車準備推出首批搭載 Ultium 電池平台的 30 款電動車車型之際，本季我們首次確認無線 BMS 解決方案的收入。隨著 OEM 意識到無線數據在擴展其車隊方面所發揮的強大作用，這只是這項突破性 BMS 技術的開始。

Turning to audio systems and connectivity. As complexity continues to increase, there's very strong demand for our market-leading audio systems with signal processing, A2B connectivity and active road noise cancellation. Our solutions offer the highest fidelity performance in the market while reducing vehicle weight, removing nearly 100 pounds per vehicle.

轉向音訊系統和連接。隨著複雜性不斷增加，市場對我們具有訊號處理、A2B 連接和主動道路噪音消除功能的領先音訊系統的需求非常強烈。我們的解決方案提供市場上最高保真度的性能，同時減輕車輛重量，每輛車減輕近 100 磅。

During the quarter, 2 leading OEMs adopted A2B, and a top 3 European vehicle manufacturer implemented A2B as its audio connectivity standard across its entire fleet. In total, A2B is now designed in at over 30 OEMs, including 18 of the top 20 global automotive companies. Furthermore, interest in our active road noise cancellation feature continues to intensify. We're designed in at 9 OEMs, up from 5 just a year ago, including Hyundai and a leading EV manufacturer. This added capability can more than double the value of our A2B solution.

本季度，兩家領先的原始設備製造商採用了 A2B，歐洲三大汽車製造商之一在其整個車隊中實施了 A2B 作為音訊連接標準。總體而言，A2B 目前已在 30 多家 OEM 中設計，其中包括全球前 20 家汽車公司中的 18 家。此外，人們對我們的主動道路噪音消除功能的興趣持續增強。我們為 9 家 OEM 提供設計服務，而一年前只有 5 家，其中包括現代和一家領先的電動車製造商。這項附加功能可以使我們的 A2B 解決方案的價值增加一倍以上。

In all, these are just a few of the countless examples of the tremendous work underway at ADI. We remain focused on delivering breakthrough innovations to stay ahead of our customers' needs.

總而言之，這些只是 ADI 正在進行的大量工作的無數例子中的幾個。我們始終致力於提供突破性創新，以滿足客戶的需求。

So in closing, I've never been more confident about ADI's future. Over the last decade, we've built an industry-leading portfolio with unparalleled breadth and depth of capabilities that's aligned with more profitable end markets. And our portfolio and leadership position will only get stronger with the acquisition of Maxim, enabling us to deliver strong returns in the years to come.

總而言之，我對 ADI 的未來從未如此充滿信心。在過去的十年中，我們建立了業界領先的產品組合，其功能廣度和深度無與倫比，與利潤更高的終端市場保持一致。收購 Maxim 後，我們的產品組合和領導地位將更加強大，使我們能夠在未來幾年實現豐厚的回報。

And so with that, I'll hand you over to Prashanth.

那麼，我將把你交給 Prashanth。

Thank you, Vince. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. My comments today, with the exception of revenue and non-op expenses, will be on an adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release.

謝謝你，文斯。早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我今天的評論，除了收入和非營運支出外，都將以調整後的基礎為基礎，不包括今天的新聞稿中概述的特殊項目。

ADI delivered exceptional third quarter results, underpinned by our ability to increase production. Revenue and EPS reached all-time highs for the second straight quarter with continued gross and operating margin expansion. If we look at performance by end market, Industrial represented 57% of revenue and increased 3% sequentially and 29% year-over-year. Notably, this business surpassed $1 billion of quarterly revenue for the first time. We experienced broad-based strength across applications and geographies. All subsegments increased double digits year-over-year, except health care, given the elevated pandemic demand a year ago.

ADI 公司在第三季取得了出色的業績，這得益於我們提高產量的能力。營收和每股盈餘連續第二季創下歷史新高，毛利率和營業利益率持續擴大。如果我們看一下終端市場的表現，工業佔收入的 57%，環比成長 3%，比去年同期成長 29%。值得注意的是，該業務季度營收首次突破10億美元。我們在各個應用領域和地域都展現出廣泛的優勢。由於一年前疫情期間需求增加，除醫療保健外，所有子領域均較去年同期成長兩位數。

Communications represented 16% of revenue and decreased 21% year-over-year while up 4% sequentially with growth in both wireless and wireline. As we outlined last quarter, we believe our Communications revenue has bottomed and will continue to grow as 5G deployments broaden globally, especially in North America.

通訊業務佔總營收的 16%，年減 21%，但季增 4%，無線和有線業務均成長。正如我們上個季度所概述的，我們相信我們的通訊收入已經觸底，並且隨著 5G 部署在全球範圍內（尤其是在北美）的擴大而將繼續增長。

Automotive represented 16% of revenue and increased 13% sequentially and 80% year-over-year. Strength was broad-based with double-digit growth across every major application. BMS and A2B remain our fastest-growing applications, and both are on track to nearly double in size this year. As Vince shared earlier, ADI has been strategically pivoting resources to focus more aggressively on electrification and the in-cabin human experience. As part of this strategy, we are licensing select radar IP to a large European Tier 1 auto supplier. This resulted in immediate revenue recognition of $24 million in the quarter.

汽車業務佔總營收的 16%，較上季成長 13%，較去年同期成長 80%。各主要應用領域均呈現兩位數成長，實力全面增強。BMS 和 A2B 仍然是我們成長最快的應用程序，今年它們的規模都有望成長近一倍。正如文斯之前所分享的，ADI 一直在策略性地調整資源，更加積極地關注電氣化和車內人類體驗。作為該策略的一部分，我們將精選雷達 IP 授權給一家大型歐洲一級汽車供應商。這導致本季立即確認了 2,400 萬美元的收入。

Consumer represented 10% of revenue and increased 16%, both sequentially and year-over-year. Our strategy to diversify and grow this business in fiscal '21 is working as strength across home entertainment, hearables and wearables more than offset a decline in portables.

消費者業務佔總營收的 10%，環比和年成長均為 16%。我們在 21 財年實施的多元化和業務成長策略正在發揮作用，家庭娛樂、可聽設備和穿戴式裝置方面的優勢足以抵消便攜式裝置的下滑。

And now moving to the P&L. Gross margin expanded sequentially and year-over-year, finishing at 71.6%, mainly due to the cost savings from the LTC manufacturing optimization and the IP license agreement. OpEx in the quarter was $493 million, up modestly sequentially, due to a full quarter of merit increases and continued strong variable comp. This netted an op margin of 43.6%, which marks the fifth straight quarter of year-over-year op margin expansion, underscoring the strong leverage in our business. Non-op expenses were $37 million, below our typical quarterly run rate of approximately $43 million due to an investment gain. And our tax rate was approximately 12%, which give us an adjusted EPS at $1.72, including $0.05 of upside attributable to the IP licensing agreement.

現在轉到損益表。毛利率環比和年比均有所擴大，達到 71.6%，這主要得益於 LTC 製造優化和 IP 授權協議帶來的成本節約。本季營運支出為 4.93 億美元，較上季略有成長，這得益於整個季度的績效加薪和持續強勁的浮動薪酬。這使得營業利潤率達到 43.6%，這是營業利潤率連續第五個季度同比增長，凸顯了我們業務的強大槓桿作用。非營運支出為 3700 萬美元，由於投資收益，低於我們通常的季度運行率約 4300 萬美元。我們的稅率約為 12%，這使我們的調整後每股收益達到 1.72 美元，其中包括歸因於 IP 授權協議的 0.05 美元上漲空間。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We finished the quarter with an ending cash balance of $1.5 billion and a net leverage ratio of 1.2x. Relative to the second quarter, inventory dollars increased $16 million, driven entirely by raw materials and work in process. Days of inventory were unchanged at 118, and weeks of channel inventory remained well below the low end of our 7- to 8-week target as sell-through remained stronger than selling. CapEx for the quarter was $86 million, up meaningfully sequentially as we continue to add capacity to support our robust and growing order book that now stretches into fiscal '22. We will continue to increase capacity in the fourth quarter, resulting in full year capital intensity above our long-term model of 4%.

繼續討論資產負債表。本季末我們的期末現金餘額為 15 億美元，淨槓桿率為 1.2 倍。與第二季相比，庫存金額增加了 1,600 萬美元，完全由原料和在製品推動。庫存天數保持不變，為 118 天，通路庫存週數仍遠低於我們 7 至 8 週目標的低端，因為銷售量仍然高於銷售量。本季的資本支出為 8,600 萬美元，環比大幅增長，因為我們繼續增加產能以支持我們強勁且不斷增長的訂單，目前訂單已延續到 22 財年。我們將在第四季繼續增加產能，使全年資本密集度高於我們長期模型的4%。

And turning to free cash flow, we generated more than $2.2 billion over the trailing 12 months, up 23% from a year ago, and this represented a 34% free cash flow margin. Over the same period, we have returned nearly 85% of free cash flow after debt repayment via $970 million in dividends and over $500 million in share repurchases.

談到自由現金流，我們在過去 12 個月創造了超過 22 億美元的收入，比去年同期成長了 23%，這代表著 34% 的自由現金流利潤率。在同一時期，我們透過 9.7 億美元的股息和超過 5 億美元的股票回購返還了償還債務後近 85% 的自由現金流。

And now on to the fourth quarter outlook. Revenue is expected to be $1.78 billion, plus or minus $70 million, up sequentially, as additional capacity comes online. At the midpoint, excluding the automotive IP licensing revenue, we expect each of our B2B markets to increase sequentially, led by Communications and Consumer to be up high single digits. Based on the midpoint of guide, we expect to deliver a record gross margin and for operating margins to be 43.7%, plus or minus 100 bps. Our tax rate is expected to fall toward the upper end of our range. And based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $1.72, plus or minus $0.11.

現在來談談第四季的展望。隨著額外產能投入使用，預計營收將達到 17.8 億美元，季增 7,000 萬美元。從中間值來看，不包括汽車 IP 授權收入，我們預計每個 B2B 市場都將持續成長，其中通訊和消費者市場將實現高個位數成長。根據指導中點，我們預計毛利率將創歷史新高，營業利潤率將達到 43.7%，上下浮動 100 個基點。我們的稅率預計將降至範圍的上限。根據這些輸入，調整後的每股盈餘預計為 1.72 美元，上下浮動 0.11 美元。

So before moving to the Q&A, I'd like to give a brief update on Maxim. Our discussions with the Chinese regulatory authorities have been productive, and we're working towards closing within the initial time frame. We plan on closing no later than the third business day after China approval has been granted. As we shared before, shortly after the close, we will hold a conference call to provide an update on our capital return plans. Once combined, we anticipate having nearly $4 billion of cash on our balance sheet, a leverage ratio well below 1 and more than $3 billion of annual free cash flow.

因此，在進入問答環節之前，我想先簡單介紹一下 Maxim 的最新情況。我們與中國監管機構的討論富有成效，我們正在努力在最初的時間內完成談判。我們計劃在獲得中國批准後的第三個工作天內完成交易。正如我們之前所分享的，收盤後不久，我們將召開電話會議，提供有關我們的資本回報計劃的最新資訊。合併後，我們預計資產負債表上將有近 40 億美元的現金，槓桿率遠低於 1，每年的自由現金流將超過 30 億美元。

I'll now turn it over to Mike to start the Q&A.

現在我將把時間交給麥克開始問答環節。

Thanks, Prashanth. Let's get to our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) With that, can we have our first question, please?

謝謝，Prashanth。讓我們進入問答環節。（操作員指示）那麼，我們可以提出第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

Vince, you mentioned demand far exceeds supply. I was hoping if you could help us quantify that. Are you under shipping by 5%, 10%? How much of a demand cushion does ADI have right now? And kind of part B of that is how much incremental capacity are you planning to bring online in the next year? And is that kind of a proxy for what kind of sales growth we should be looking at?

文斯，你提到需求遠超過供應。我希望您能幫助我們量化這一點。你們的運費是否低於 5% 或 10%？ADI 目前有多少需求緩衝？其中 B 部分是您計劃明年上線多少增量容量？這是否可以作為我們應該關注的銷售成長類型的代表？

Thanks, Vivek. So demand continues to grow across our markets. All end markets are up, and our book-to-bill was above 1.2. Supply is also expanding. We grew 4% sequentially in the third quarter, and we're -- at the midpoint, we're going to be up another 3% for the fourth quarter.

謝謝，維韋克。因此，我們整個市場的需求都在持續成長。所有終端市場都在上漲，我們的訂單出貨比超過了 1.2。供應量也在擴大。第三季我們的銷售額較上季成長了 4%，預計第四季銷售額將再成長 3%。

So you look at that math, and it says the supply-demand gap is growing, or said another way, backlog is increasing quarter-over-quarter, and it now extends well into 2022. Our view is this gap is likely to persist into calendar year '22, given the long lead time it takes to add supply in the industry, plus just the broad strength of the demand.

所以你看一下這個數學公式，它表明供需缺口正在擴大，或者換句話說，積壓訂單正在逐季增加，並且已經延續到 2022 年。我們認為，考慮到產業供應增加所需的較長準備時間，再加上需求的普遍強勁，這種缺口可能會持續到2022年。

Yes. I think the second part of that question, Vivek, just a little bit of color. So we're layering in investments in CapEx to support our growth objectives, so particularly on the back end of our operations, assembly and test. And we need this capital now to meet the demand. But also in the longer term, we're very, very optimistic about the tailwinds in -- right across our business, from automation to electrification, connectivity and so on and so forth. So the outlook we've just given you is supply feasible, and it is certainly the governor, I would say, right now on revenue for the company.

是的。我認為這個問題的第二部分，Vivek，只是有點色彩。因此，我們分層投資資本支出來支持我們的成長目標，特別是在我們的營運、組裝和測試的後端。我們現在需要這筆資金來滿足需求。但從長遠來看，我們對整個業務的順風非常非常樂觀，從自動化到電氣化、連結性等等。因此，我們剛才給您的展望是供應可行的，而且我想說，這肯定是目前公司收入的決定因素。

Your next question is from Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

yes. I was hoping you could just elaborate a little bit more on the Maxim merger. You said that you'd still expect it to happen within the time frame you had announced. I believe you had said the summer of 2021, correct me if that was wrong. And related to that is, again, China the only remaining obstacle before you can close the deal?

是的。我希望您能更詳細地闡述一下 Maxim 合併的情況。您說您仍然希望它能夠在您宣布的時間範圍內發生。我相信你說的是 2021 年夏天，如果錯了請糾正我。與此相關的是，中國是你們達成協議的唯一障礙嗎？

Thanks, Tore. So look, our confidence of the closing remains unchanged. And as we said in the prepared comments, our discussions with the Chinese regulatory authorities have been productive -- positive and productive, and we're working towards closing within the initial time frame. So China is the only outstanding regulatory approval need at this point in time. And I will remind you as well that all of the other regulatory bodies across the globe have approved our deal without condition, without remedies.

謝謝，托爾。所以看，我們對結束的信心保持不變。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們與中國監管機構的討論是富有成效的——積極且富有成效，我們正在努力在最初的時間範圍內完成談判。因此，目前中國是唯一需要獲得監管部門批准的國家。我還要提醒你們，全球所有其他監管機構都無條件、無補救措施地批准了我們的協議。

Your next question is from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Yes. Vince, I wanted to pick up on your prepared comments about your Industrial business. You're now going in the third consecutive quarter of sort of record revenues in that business. You have to go back to, I think, April of '18 before -- which was the last peak. But year-to-date -- fiscal year-to-date, that business is up about 30% year-over-year. And for a lot of investors, they're concerned that perhaps that represents more cyclical excess than sort of structural sustainability. And so I'm kind of curious, as you break apart your Industrial business, what do you think is being driven by the "cycle" versus stuff that's a little bit more sustainable?

是的。文斯，我想了解你準備好的關於你的工業業務的評論。你們現在正連續第三個季度創下該業務的營收紀錄。我認為你必須回到 18 年 4 月之前——那是最後一個高峰。但從年初至今，也就是財政年度迄今為止，該業務年增了約 30%。對於許多投資者來說，他們擔心這可能更多的是週期性的過度，而不是結構性的可持續性。因此我有點好奇，當您拆分工業業務時，您認為哪些是由「週期」驅動，哪些是由更永續的東西驅動？

Yes. Thanks, John. I think, first and foremost, I'd like to remind everybody that ADI's Industrial business is built on a foundation of many individual market segments like automation, instrumentation that I talked about, health care, our space business and energy as it moves to renewables and charging infrastructure, for example, the whole need for grid efficiency and stabilization. So that's the foundation. It's a highly diverse business. We've got many tens of thousands of customers. And the life cycles in the business are kind of 15 years plus, and it's a very, very, very sticky set of sockets that we've got.

是的。謝謝，約翰。我認為，首先，我想提醒大家，ADI 的工業業務建立在許多單獨的細分市場的基礎上，例如我談到的自動化、儀器儀表、醫療保健、我們的空間業務和能源，因為它正在轉向可再生能源和充電基礎設施，例如對電網效率和穩定性的整體需求。這就是基礎。這是一個高度多元化的行業。我們有數萬名客戶。業務的生命週期大約為 15 年以上，而且我們擁有一套非常非常黏性的插座。

So those of you who have followed ADI for a long time, remember, we -- about a decade ago, we fairly dramatically increased our focus in terms of R&D, go-to-market activities in ensuring that we could really grow that business. And the last few years have shown that we've been gaining market share across the board there.

因此，那些長期關注 ADI 的人請記住，大約十年前，我們大大增加了對研發和市場推廣活動的關注，以確保我們能夠真正發展業務。過去幾年的事實證明，我們的市佔率一直在全面擴大。

So I think there's a certain amount, John, of -- there were a lot of programs that were stalled last year, so there's a certain amount of catch-up there. But I do think that the breadth of the portfolio that we now have, the investments we've been making in terms of customer engagement, R&D activities and the secular trends that we've got, all these concurrent secular drivers are propelling that business beyond the markets.

所以我認為，約翰，去年有很多項目停滯不前，因此需要一定程度的追趕。但我確實認為，我們目前擁有的投資組合的廣度、我們在客戶參與度、研發活動以及我們所掌握的長期趨勢方面所做的投資，所有這些同時出現的長期驅動因素都在推動我們的業務超越市場。

Yes. I'll add one thing, John. You're right. As we said in our prepared comments, all the markets did increase double digits year-over-year. Of our 6 applications that Vince outlined, 2 are still below pre-peak levels. We do think fiscal '21 marks a record for all of them, and we don't see why they won't hit another record in '22, given the strong trends that Vince outlined. And with that, we'll go to our next question.

是的。我要補充一點，約翰。你說得對。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，所有市場都實現了同比兩位數的成長。在 Vince 列出的 6 個應用中，有 2 個仍低於高峰前的水平。我們確實認為 21 財年對他們所有人來說都創下了紀錄，而且考慮到文斯概述的強勁趨勢，我們不明白為什麼他們不會在 22 年再創紀錄。有了這些，我們就可以進入下一個問題了。

Your next question is from Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

I had a question on the pricing environment. And given the -- just the tight supply and the shortage situation, we're starting to see some hints of some of your peers starting to take prices up. And I was curious what you guys are seeing in the pricing environment. Are you seeing that? Are you able to actually do that? Are you treating your own pricing environment more conservatively?

我對定價環境有疑問。鑑於供應緊張和短缺的情況，我們開始看到一些同行開始提高價格的跡象。我很好奇你們在定價環境中看到了什麼。你看到了嗎？你真的能做到嗎？您是否更保守地對待自己的定價環境？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Stacy. So I would say that for the results that we printed, pricing is on net neutral. We're passing on cost increase so that we're not impacting margins, but we've made a decision not to take advantage of our customers by structurally increasing pricing in this environment. Our long-term model is unchanged, and that is 70% plus. So the goal really is to drive the revenue growth and make the trade-offs that are necessary to drive that revenue growth, focusing on delivering on the op margin and the free cash flow.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史黛西。因此我想說，對於我們公佈的結果，定價是淨中性的。我們正在轉嫁成本上漲，以免影響利潤率，但我們決定在這種環境下不透過結構性提高價格來佔客戶的便宜。我們的長期模式沒有改變，這個比例是70%以上。因此，我們的真正目標是推動收入成長，並做出推動收入成長所需的權衡，重點是實現營業利潤率和自由現金流。

So you'll see on a -- if you back out the IP license impact, we had a 71.2% gross margin in the third quarter. And while we don't guide to gross margins, if you impute it from the guide that we give you -- we gave you, fourth quarter is going to be -- probably be a record for ADI in terms of gross margins.

因此，你會看到——如果你排除 IP 授權的影響，我們第三季的毛利率為 71.2%。雖然我們沒有提供毛利率指引，但如果您根據我們提供的指引進行推算，那麼第四季度的毛利率可能會創下 ADI 的最高紀錄。

Your next question is from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I wanted to ask about the Comms business. Vince, you talked about 2022 being a growth year, and you talked about North America, Europe and Korea being the key drivers for you guys going forward. How should we think about the shape of the recovery going forward? Is it going to be a fairly gradual recovery? Could it be sort of a V-shaped recovery over the next couple of quarters? And when you talk about return to growth in '22, what sort of implicit assumptions are you making for China?

我想詢問有關通信業務的問題。文斯，您說 2022 年是成長年，而北美、歐洲和韓國是您未來發展的關鍵驅動力。我們該如何看待未來經濟復甦的形態？復甦會是一個相當緩慢的過程嗎？未來幾季會出現 V 型復甦嗎？當您談到22年恢復成長時，您對中國做出了哪些隱含的假設？

Okay. Thanks. We're going to split that into 2. Let me just quickly talk about what happened, and then I'll let Vince speak to kind of more broadly. So in the second quarter, as a reminder, we did call the bottom on Comms and said that we would grow on a sequential basis. We delivered that in third quarter, and we are on track to deliver that for the fourth quarter. So we believe we're really well positioned for strong growth into fiscal '22.

好的。謝謝。我們將把它分成兩部分。讓我先快速講一下發生的事情，然後讓文斯更廣泛地講一下。因此，在第二季度，提醒一下，我們確實稱通訊業務已觸底，並表示我們將實現連續成長。我們在第三季度實現了這一目標，並且預計在第四季度實現這一目標。因此，我們相信，我們已做好準備，在 22 財年實現強勁成長。

And between kind of the 2 subsegments there, wired demand remains strong, and we expect that to continue as both carriers and data centers continue to do the upgrades to their networks. And wireless, while it's always lumpy, growth in the past quarter was really driven by rest of the world, North America. We do think China bottomed in the third quarter so that should also represent some growth momentum for us as we go forward.

在這兩個子領域之間，有線需求仍然強勁，我們預計，隨著營運商和資料中心繼續對其網路進行升級，這種需求將持續下去。而無線業務，雖然一直不穩定，但上個季度的成長實際上是由世界其他地區，即北美推動的。我們確實認為中國經濟在第三季已經觸底，因此這也應該代表我們未來的一些成長動力。

And then I'll hand off to Vince to kind of speak more broadly about what we're seeing.

然後我會讓文斯更廣泛地談談我們所看到的情況。

Yes. So Toshi, why do I have the confidence I have about 2022 being a strong growth year? So maybe I can unpack that a bit for you. So I think our Comms revenue mix is seeing a benefit from the rest of world beginning to emerge in 5G. So today, rest of world, outside of China, is 3x in terms of TAM. So that's number one. If you look at then the geographies, North America, the auction, the C-band auction is complete, revenue is really just beginning here. And all the indications are that 5G revenue here will accelerate in 2022 and indeed beyond. Europe, I would say a step behind, but we're beginning to see good signs of life in that region. And -- but I think it will be more a late 2022 driver.

是的。那麼 Toshi，為什麼我有信心 2022 年會是強勁成長的一年？所以也許我可以為你解釋一下這個問題。因此，我認為我們的通訊收入組合將受益於世界其他地區開始湧現的 5G 技術。因此，今天，中國以外的世界其他地區的 TAM 是其 3 倍。這是第一點。如果你看一下北美的地域情況，C 波段拍賣已經完成，這裡的收入才剛開始。所有跡像都表明，2022 年及以後，這裡的 5G 收入將會加速成長。我想說歐洲落後了一步，但我們開始看到該地區良好的生活跡象。而且——但我認為它將更像是 2022 年末的驅動因素。

We've talked several times on various calls here about O-RAN, what's happening, but we're beginning to see revenue. We've talked before about Rakuten in Japan. That business continues to accelerate, and European carriers are looking right now to make it also an important part of their 5G offering.

我們已經在各種電話會議上多次談論過 O-RAN 以及正在發生的事情，但我們開始看到收入。我們之前討論過日本的樂天。該業務持續加速發展，歐洲營運商目前正考慮將其作為其 5G 產品的重要組成部分。

I mentioned during the prepared remarks as well that Vodafone is a major player there, and we happen to be very well represented in their systems. And I'm also having conversations with customers about the use of 5G and O-RAN beyond the classical consumer market.

我在準備好的發言中也提到，沃達豐是那裡的主要參與者，我們恰好在他們的系統中佔有很好的地位。我還與客戶討論了 5G 和 O-RAN 在傳統消費市場之外的應用。

So it's early days, but the characteristics of flexibility, scalability, quicker time to market, cost savings and so on is enabling private networks to be configured in factory environments, for example. So that's all still on to come, but that gives you a sense for our confidence in 2022 and beyond.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，但靈活性、可擴展性、更快的上市時間、節省成本等特點使得私有網路能夠在工廠環境中配置。所以這一切都還未實現，但這讓你感受到我們對 2022 年及以後的信心。

Your next question is from Ambrish Srivastava of BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I had a question on Maxim and -- so my investment case for ADI has now been Maxim. And you have a very sticky shareholder base who have been with you before Maxim. But I get this question a lot, so I think it's a fair question to ask. If Maxim was not to go through, how do you think about capital allocation? Do you then go back to the playbook and say you would be changing how you think about capital allocation or you would continue on the M&A path and look at other opportunities?

我對 Maxim 有一個疑問——所以我對 ADI 的投資案例現在是 Maxim。你們擁有非常忠實的股東基礎，他們在 Maxim 之前就一直支持你們。但我經常被問到這個問題，所以我認為這是一個合理的問題。如果 Maxim 未能通過，您會如何考慮資金配置？那麼，您是否會回到劇本並說您會改變對資本配置的看法，或者您會繼續走併購之路並尋找其他機會？

So Ambrish, let's do this. Let me just remind everyone what the capital allocation policy is today because I think that we have a very shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy, which is that first call is really to invest in the business and that -- although not a traditional definition, we do consider that organically kind of how we spend our R&D, and that is heavily pointed towards the B2B market. And then we think about inorganic really more as it helps the technology portfolio or find other ways to help us become more important to customers.

那麼 Ambrish，我們就開始吧。讓我提醒大家今天的資本配置政策是什麼，因為我認為我們有一個非常有利於股東的資本配置政策，即首先要真正投資於業務，而且 - 雖然這不是傳統的定義，但我們確實有機地考慮了我們如何花費我們的研發，並且這主要針對 B2B 市場。然後我們更多地考慮無機，因為它有助於技術組合或找到其他方法來幫助我們對客戶變得更加重要。

But our commitment is to return 100% of free cash flow to customers. So we're at a 1.2 level leverage today. We do not need to reduce debt. So on a -- in an environment -- despite the confidence that we have in the Maxim deal closing, in an environment where that was not to have happened, would not look for us to really be changing that view of having all our incremental free cash flow go into -- returned to shareholders, either through buyback or through dividend.

但我們的承諾是將100%的自由現金流回饋給客戶。因此，我們今天的槓桿率為 1.2。我們不需要減少債務。因此，儘管我們對 Maxim 交易的完成充滿信心，但在這種環境下，如果這筆交易不會發生，我們不會真正改變將所有增量自由現金流返還給股東的觀點，無論是透過回購還是透過股息。

And as a reminder, I think over the past 3 years, we've averaged about a 10% increase in our dividend, so a very healthy commitment for our fixed income-focused investors as well as the repo. I think we're on track this year for an all-time high in terms of our repo activity.

提醒一下，我認為在過去 3 年裡，我們的股息平均成長了 10% 左右，因此對於我們專注於固定收益的投資者和回購來說，這是一個非常健康的承諾。我認為，就回購活動而言，我們今年有望創下歷史新高。

Back to the M&A, I'm going to hand that one to Vince to talk more about the alternatives there.

回到併購問題，我將把這個問題交給文斯來進一步討論那裡的替代方案。

Yes. So as you know, you've seen, over the years, we've always acquired very, very high-quality assets, and that will remain to be our view on things in the years ahead as well.

是的。所以，正如您所知，多年來，我們一直收購非常高品質的資產，而且在未來幾年裡，我們仍將堅持這一觀點。

Your next question is from Blayne Curtis of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩柯蒂斯。

Just curious on -- if you look at the B2B guidance, it's fairly flattish. I think Industrial probably is flat, given the segment guidance you gave. So I'm just kind of curious as you look at this, obviously, you had strong comments on the bookings. Is that gap really supply? Or are you starting to see demand trends start to settle out at this level?

只是好奇——如果你看一下 B2B 指導，它相當平穩。考慮到您給出的細分指導，我認為工業可能持平。所以我只是有點好奇，當你看到這個時，顯然你對預訂有強烈的評論。這個缺口真的是供應嗎？或者您開始看到需求趨勢開始在這個水平上穩定下來？

That is purely supply. I think I mentioned in maybe the first or second question that book-to-bill for the quarter was over 1.2, and that's across all markets. So we're seeing very strong interest in products across all markets.

這純粹是供應。我想我在第一個或第二個問題中提到過，本季的訂單出貨比超過 1.2，而且這涉及所有市場。因此，我們看到各個市場對該產品的興趣都非常濃厚。

Mike indicated in one of the other Q&As that we're likely to have the industrial markets hit an all-time high collectively for fiscal year '21 and expect that to continue to be on track, to have another record in FY '22. So very much a supply-constrained environment.

麥克在另一場問答中表示，21 財年的工業市場很可能創下歷史新高，並預計這一趨勢將繼續保持，並在 22 財年再創紀錄。因此，供應環境非常受限。

And I just wanted to follow up on the gross margin, Prashanth. So you indicated the gross margin would be up, and I think that's with the license impact as well. So you saw a benefit from the linear. Just curious how much more there is of that as a benefit. And then maybe just talk about utilizations and other pulls on gross margin as you look over the next couple of quarters.

我只是想跟進一下毛利率，Prashanth。所以您說毛利率會上升，我認為這也受到許可證的影響。所以你看到了線性的好處。只是好奇這還有多少好處。然後，當您展望未來幾個季度時，也許只會談論利用率和其他影響毛利率的因素。

Yes. So I presume you're asking kind of with respect to the guide. So in the fourth quarter, we -- and we're not guiding gross margins, but we're pretty confident we're going to hit a new record for gross margins. That is coming from the LTC synergies. We're continuing -- I think we hit the final phase of closing down the manufacturing operation in California. We still have an opportunity, as soon as the supply environment allows us to, to get some additional savings out of Asia because we haven't closed that facility yet because we have no time to ship the tools to their new location.

是的。所以我猜你是在問有關指南的問題。因此，在第四季度，我們沒有預測毛利率，但我們非常有信心創下毛利率的新紀錄。這是 LTC 綜效的結果。我們正在繼續——我認為我們已經進入關閉加州製造業務的最後階段。只要供應環境允許，我們仍然有機會從亞洲​​獲得一些額外的節省，因為我們還沒有關閉工廠，因為我們沒有時間將工具運送到新的地點。

Utilization is also going to provide some level of increase. I would say mix is a bit of a headwind into the fourth quarter. And fourth quarters typically have some level of challenges in terms of holiday shutdowns, so we need to manage through that, which can provide a little bit of headwind for us as well that we got to work ourselves around.

利用率也將帶來一定程度的成長。我想說混合在第四季有點逆風。第四季通常會在假期停工方面面臨一定程度的挑戰，因此我們需要應對這項挑戰，這也會給我們帶來一些阻力，我們必須自己努力克服。

The foundation for our gross margins being where they are is, number one, innovation. We produce the best forming -- the best-performing solutions between the physical and digital worlds, and we get a premium. We get very, very well paid for doing that.

我們的毛利率維持現狀的基礎首先是創新。我們生產出最佳的產品——實體世界和數位世界之間表現最佳的解決方案，並獲得額外的報酬。我們做這件事得到了非常豐厚的報酬。

Also the diversity of our product and customer portfolios, 125,000 customers with, I think I've said this before, 85% of our sales come from products that individually contribute less than 0.1%. And the pricing environment, as we said earlier on the call, has been very, very stable, very steady.

此外，我們的產品和客戶組合也十分多樣化，我們有 125,000 名客戶，我想我之前說過，我們 85% 的銷售額來自單獨貢獻率不到 0.1% 的產品。正如我們之前在電話會議上所說，定價環境非常非常穩定。

Your next question is from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Congratulations on the strong results and quarterly execution. Channel inventories continue to remain below your target 7- to 8-week range. You guys can also monitor direct customer inventories, at least for those that are on consignment programs. Any signs that customers have been able to build inventories? I mean, it seems unlikely because the entire value chain appears to be sort of hand-to-mouth from a chip supply perspective. But wanted to get your views. And when do you believe customers will be in a position to start to build back inventories? I'm assuming the soonest is sometime in calendar '22 but wanted to get your views as well.

恭喜您取得的出色業績和季度執行力。渠道庫存繼續低於您的目標 7 至 8 週範圍。你們還可以監控直接客戶的庫存，至少對於那些參與寄售計畫的客戶來說是這樣。有任何跡象表明客戶已經能夠建立庫存嗎？我的意思是，這似乎不太可能，因為從晶片供應的角度來看，整個價值鏈似乎只是勉強維持生計。但想聽聽你的意見。您認為客戶何時能夠開始補充庫存？我估計最早也要到 22 年某個時候，但也想聽聽您的意見。

Yes. Thank you, Harlan. So I'll take that. So first, a couple of comments on inventory. Inventory on our balance sheet is up year-over-year and sequentially, but that is exclusively due to raw materials and WIP. We can't keep a finished good in stock. So when it's produced, it either goes to the customer or it goes into the channel, and then it goes out of the channel immediately. So we are struggling to build finished goods inventory, both in ADI warehouses as well as in our channel partners.

是的。謝謝你，哈蘭。所以我會接受。首先，我對庫存提出幾點評論。我們資產負債表上的庫存同比和環比都有所增加，但這完全是由於原材料和在製品。我們無法保留成品庫存。因此，當產品生產出來後，它要么到達客戶，要么進入渠道，然後立即從渠道出去。因此，我們正在努力建立成品庫存，無論是在 ADI 倉庫還是在我們的通路合作夥伴中。

Roughly -- well, let's say a significant amount of our Auto business is on consignment, which gives us good visibility for that direct business as to what's happening there. And that is also -- we're seeing that demand kind of pull through pretty quickly and no opportunity for those auto customers to build the inventory within their warehouses, but that's on our books.

大致上——好吧，假設我們的汽車業務很大一部分是透過寄售進行的，這讓我們能夠很好地了解直接業務中發生的情況。而且，我們也看到需求很快就恢復了，汽車客戶沒有機會在自己的倉庫內建立庫存，但這是我們的帳簿。

So it's still very much hand-to-mouth, and the focus that we have, as we've talked throughout this call and in the prepared remarks, is on increasing our capacity or ability to supply by making some significant investments in capacity. I don't see this balance coming into some sense of normalcy until sometime in calendar year '22.

因此，我們仍然處於勉強糊口的狀態，正如我們在整個電話會議和準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們的重點是透過對產能進行一些重大投資來提高我們的產能或供應能力。我認為這種平衡要到 2022 年某個時候才能恢復正常。

Your next question is from William Stein of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Great. Prashanth, you just talked about inventory not coming to sub-level of ability to rebuild anything until sometime in '22. You talked about the supply-demand imbalance lasting well into '22; 1.2, book-to-bill; et cetera. When we look out to the next, next quarter, the January quarter, typically, that's a sequentially down quarter in Automotive, Industrial, Consumer and for the whole business as well. But given these supply constraints and this very significant backlog, should we think about that seasonality as different in the coming year? Should we expect maybe some visibility to sequential growth for the next several quarters?

偉大的。Prashanth，您剛才談到，直到 2022 年某個時候，庫存才會達到重建任何東西的能力水平。您談到了供需失衡將持續到 22 年；1.2、訂單到出貨；等等。當我們展望下一個季度，即一月份季度時，通常汽車、工業、消費品以及整個行業的銷售額都會連續下降。但考慮到這些供應限制和如此嚴重的積壓，我們是否應該認為來年的季節性會有所不同？我們是否應該期待未來幾季的連續成長能夠有所顯現？

Yes. I think the way to answer that would be to say that seasonality in today's environment is a bit of a meaningless concept because revenue growth is really dictated completely by supply. So the print for Q1 is likely to be driven by what more capacity we can get online between the fourth -- over the fourth quarter to allow us. Again, now we've got a couple of things we need to work through in the first quarter that won't -- that would be a little bit of an offset.

是的。我認為回答這個問題的方式是說，當今環境下的季節性是一個毫無意義的概念，因為收入成長實際上完全取決於供應。因此，第一季的業績可能取決於我們在第四季期間可以獲得多少產能。再說一次，現在我們需要在第一季解決一些問題，但這不會帶來一點抵消。

First, there's the holiday season, so we do need to adjust factory capacity for that. And Consumer, fourth quarter is kind of the key quarter for Consumer. That's when they build for the holiday season. So there's always going to be a little bit of seasonality impact for Consumer, just because of the -- they don't need it in the first quarter or our fiscal first quarter as that is the holiday period.

首先，現在是假期，所以我們確實需要調整工廠產能。對消費者來說，第四季是關鍵的季度。那時他們正在為節慶季節做準備。因此，對於消費者來說，總是會有一點季節性的影響，只是因為——他們在第一季或我們的財政第一季不需要它，因為那是假期期間。

So maybe that's kind of where I'll finish, Mike. Anything you want to add to that?

麥克，也許這就是我要結束的地方。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, sure. So I guess if you look back, you're right. I mean, we talked about seasonality not being as meaningful now. But just to give you a bit of a history lesson, if you look past over the past 10 years, you're right. Our B2B markets, I would say, in good times, which I would call now good times, is usually flat to down slightly in 1Q. And Consumer, I would say, in good and even kind of normal times, is down kind of 5% or maybe more in 1Q.

是的，當然。所以我想如果你回頭看的話，你是對的。我的意思是，我們討論過季節性現在不再那麼有意義了。但只是為了給你一點歷史教訓，如果你回顧過去 10 年，你是對的。我想說，我們的 B2B 市場在景氣時期（我現在稱之為景氣時期）通常在第一季持平或略有下降。我想說，在經濟狀況良好甚至正常的情況下，第一季的消費者支出會下降 5% 甚至更多。

And with that, I want to thank everyone for joining the call this morning. A copy of the transcript will be available on our website, and all reconciliations and additional information can also be found in the Quarterly Results section. Thanks again for joining and your continued interest in ADI.

最後，我要感謝大家今天上午參加電話會議。成績單副本將在我們的網站上提供，所有對帳和其他資訊也可在季度業績部分找到。再次感謝您的加入以及對 ADI 的持續關注。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 ADI 公司電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。